Category: Statistics

MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Concludes the 2025 Article IV Consultation with Libya

Source: IMF – News in Russian

June 25, 2025

The continued political division and widespread fragilities have hindered the authorities’ capacity to control public expenditure and enact necessary reforms
The outlook is dominated by developments in the oil sector, and the country remains exposed to global downside risks
Controlling expenditure will be key to ensure sustainability and to achieving intergenerational equity

Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV Consultation with Libya.^[1] The Executive Board’s decision was taken on a lapse-of-time basis.

Real GDP growth is estimated to have declined to around 2 percent in 2024 from 10 percent in 2023, driven by a contraction in the hydrocarbon sector. At the same time, non-hydrocarbon growth remained robust on the back of sustained government spending. Both the current and the fiscal accounts have swung from a surplus in 2023 to a deficit in 2024. Reported inflation remained low.

The outlook continues to be dominated by developments in the oil sector. Real GDP growth is projected to rebound in 2025, primarily driven by an expansion of oil production, before moderating to about 2 percent over the medium term. Non-hydrocarbon growth is set to remain between 5 and 6 percent in the medium term, supported by sustained government spending. The current account is slated to post a small surplus in 2025 (0.7 percent of GDP) before turning into a small deficit over the medium term, as oil prices remain subdued. The fiscal balance is projected to remain in deficit—albeit at a much lower level than in 2024—under the weight of continued large government spending.

Risks are tilted to the downside. Domestic risks stem from political instability, potentially evolving into active conflict, disrupting oil production and exports, and preventing progress on much-needed economic reforms. The economy is exposed to global downside risks through its heavy dependence on oil exports and a large import bill.

Executive Board Assessment^[2]

Economic activity and fiscal and external accounts are poised to remain heavily dependent on developments in the oil sector and subject to downside risks. Following a rebound in oil production, economic growth is expected to be in double digits in 2025, before moderating over the medium term. Despite the expected increase in oil exports, the current account and fiscal balances are set to remain in deficit over most of the forecast horizon, weighed down by the projected softening of oil prices and large fiscal spending. The outlook is subject to downside risks, including the potential intensification of domestic political tensions, which could disrupt oil production and exports, and adverse global economic and geopolitical developments, which would put additional downward pressure on oil prices. To mitigate these risks, accelerating reforms aimed at restraining fiscal spending and diversifying the economy away from oil will be crucial.

Controlling expenditure will be key to ensure sustainability and to achieve intergenerational equity. The authorities should remain steadfast in their efforts to agree on a unified budget that outlines priority spending and enhances the transparency and credibility of government fiscal operations. Until such an agreement is reached, pressures to increase spending on salaries and subsidies should be resisted. Over the medium term, a sizable adjustment will be required to set the fiscal position on a sustainable trajectory and preserve intergenerational equity. The adjustment should be carefully designed to rationalize current spending, particularly wages and energy subsidies, and mobilize non-oil revenues, while maintaining capital expenditures at levels that support economic diversification.

A well-designed monetary and exchange rate policy framework will be essential to help manage economic cycles and mitigate the depreciation pressures. Introducing a well-defined policy rate will enhance the CBL’s capacity in smoothing the economic cycle and alleviating pressures on the dinar and provide a benchmark for the pricing of credit by both conventional and Islamic banks. Phasing out the foreign exchange tax alongside other exchange restrictions in line with Libya’s Article VIII obligations will reduce distortions, lower economic agents’ need to resort to the parallel market and help unify the exchange rate.

Reforms are needed to reinforce the banking sector’s contribution to economic activity. Impediments to a more active role by banks in the economy remain pervasive. Introducing well-designed savings plans will help to reduce cash hoarding, expand banks’ deposit base, establish bank-customer relationships, and support the provision of credit to the private sector. Enhancing transparency and accountability within the banking sector and promoting financial literacy among the public would foster confidence in banks and increase their footprint in Libya’s economy. Strengthening the AML/CFT framework, including by aligning it with international standards, will be paramount to support the stability of correspondent banking relationships and to ensure that Libyan banks’ operations remain uninterrupted.

Structural and governance reforms would foster the emergence of a diversified, sustainable, and private sector-led economy. Forging a comprehensive reform program aimed at reducing dependence on oil revenues should be at the top of the authorities’ agenda. Key elements of the reform program should promote a more active engagement of the private sector in economic activity, including by enhancing the business environment and access to finance and introducing labor market measures that encourage private sector employment. Taking decisive actions to tackle corruption, strengthen governance, and enhance the rule of law will support economic diversification further.

There is a need to enhance data provision and statistical capacity. Data gaps continue to significantly hamper staff’s ability to conduct analysis and provide policy advice. There is a need for the authorities to implement the technical assistance recommendations in the areas of national accounts and external sector statistics, and monetary and financial statistics, and improve data collection and reporting.

Libya: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2021-2030

(Main Export: Crude Oil)

				Est.	Proj.
	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
(Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)
National income and prices
Real GDP (at market price)	28.3	-8.3	10.2	1.9	16.1	4.4	1.6	1.7	1.9	2.2
Nonhydrocarbon	5.9	7.9	-0.6	14.3	2.9	5.9	4.2	4.4	4.8	5.3
Hydrocarbon	45.0	-17.0	17.8	-5.5	25.6	3.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Nominal GDP in billions of Libyan dinars 1/	159.0	208.2	211.9	234.3	251.2	254.2	265.5	277.9	292.0	306.6
Nominal GDP in billions of U.S. dollars 1/	35.2	43.3	44.0	48.4	47.2	47.7	49.8	52.2	54.8	57.6
Per capita GDP in thousands of U.S. dollars	5.2	6.4	6.4	7.0	6.8	6.8	7.0	7.3	7.5	7.8
GDP deflator	90.4	42.7	-7.6	3.6	-3.3	-3.1	2.8	2.9	3.1	2.8
CPI inflation
Period average	2.9	4.5	2.4	2.1	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3
End of period	3.7	4.1	1.8	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3
(In percent of GDP)
Central government finances
Revenues	79.5	85.8	73.6	69.8	67.9	61.1	58.5	56.6	54.5	52.4
Of which: Hydrocarbon	78.1	83.9	71.6	55.4	62.1	59.2	56.7	54.7	52.6	50.4
Expenditure and net lending	64.7	62.2	65.4	94.8	73.2	64.6	61.8	59.5	57.1	54.8
Of which: Capital expenditures	10.9	8.4	8.7	34.6	20.1	12.8	12.1	11.4	11.0	10.9
Overall balance	14.8	23.6	8.2	-25.1	-5.3	-3.5	-3.3	-2.9	-2.7	-2.5
Overall balance (in billions of U.S. dollars)	5.2	10.2	3.6	-12.1	-2.5	-1.7	-1.6	-1.5	-1.5	-1.4
Nonhydrocarbon balance	-63.3	-60.3	-63.4	-80.5	-67.5	-62.7	-60.0	-57.6	-55.2	-52.9
(Annual percentage change unless otherwise indicated)
Money and credit
Base Money	2.8	-16.9	47.9	6.6	36.8	9.0	9.2	10.0	10.2	16.7
Currency in circulation	-20.0	-1.4	37.6	13.3	10.5	2.2	1.5	5.0	5.0	5.0
Money and quasi-money	-20.3	12.0	28.3	12.2	4.0	4.5	4.5	5.0	5.0	5.0
Net credit to the government (Libyan Dinar, billion)	-94.1	-114.9	-110.9	-128.8	-130.4	-121.4	-112.7	-104.6	-96.8	-89.3
Credit to the economy (% of GDP)	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
(In billions of U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated)
Balance of payments
Exports	25.9	32.1	30.9	28.4	32.0	31.3	31.6	32.0	32.5	32.9
Of which: Hydrocarbon	24.5	30.0	28.8	26.3	29.9	29.1	29.2	29.7	30.3	29.9
Imports	17.0	17.2	17.7	21.6	21.9	20.5	20.6	20.8	21.0	21.2
Current account balance	5.7	10.0	8.0	-2.0	0.3	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.1	-0.1
(As percent of GDP)	16.1	23.2	18.3	-4.2	0.7	-0.5	-0.4	-0.3	-0.3	-0.1
Capital Account (including E&O)	-7.0	-5.3	-3.8	6.5	-2.8	-1.4	-1.4	-1.4	-1.3	-1.3
Overall balance 2/	1.1	4.7	4.3	4.5	-2.5	-1.7	-1.6	-1.5	-1.5	-1.4
Reserves
Gross official reserves	69.4	74.1	78.4	82.9	81.1	79.4	77.8	76.3	74.8	73.4
In months of next year’s imports	32.2	32.8	34.2	29.6	31.0	32.3	31.5	30.5	29.6	28.8
Gross official reserves in percentage of Broad Money	317.0	318.2	261.3	250.3	262.9	246.4	230.9	215.6	201.4	188.2
Total foreign assets	79.7	84.2	88.5	93.6	91.6	89.7	87.9	86.2	84.5	82.9
Exchange rate
Official exchange rate (LD/US$, period average)	4.5	4.8	4.8	4.8	…	…	…	…	…	…
Parallel market exchange rate (LD/US$, period average)	5.1	5.1	5.2	6.9	…	…	…	…	…	…
Parallel market exchange rate (LD/US$, end of period)	5.0	5.2	6.1	6.4	…	…	…	…	…	…
Crude oil production (millions of barrels per day – mbd)	1.2	1.0	1.2	1.1	1.4	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5
Of which: Exports	1.0	0.8	1.0	0.9	1.1	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2
Crude oil price (US$/bbl) 3/	64.4	89.6	75.0	73.6	66.9	62.4	62.7	63.6	64.3	64.9

Sources: Libyan authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections. 1/ Nominal GDP data are at market prices. 2/ Includes revaluation of gold holdings of U$10.5 billion in 2024. 3/ The crude oil price was adjusted for Libya up to 2024.

[1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

[2] The Executive Board takes decisions under its lapse-of-time procedure when the Board agrees that a proposal can be considered without convening formal discussions.

IMF Communications Department

MEDIA RELATIONS

PRESS OFFICER: Mayada Ghazala

Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/06/25/pr-25217-libya-imf-executive-board-concludes-the-2025-article-iv-consultation

MIL OSI

MIL OSI Russia News –

June 26, 2025

MIL-OSI Africa: Protocol to improve safety in schools

Source: South Africa News Agency

When schools are unsafe, when learners, educators and support staff live in fear, it robs learners of the very essence of learning and development, says Police Minister Senzo Mchunu.

“Our country’s future rests in the hands of our children. And as parents, first and foremost, we all desire the same thing – that our children live good, meaningful lives. We know that a solid education is the foundation of that good life,” Mchunu said.

He was speaking at the launch of the Collaborative Implementation Protocol between SAPS and the Department of Basic Education in Cape Town on Tuesday.

Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube and Mchunu jointly unveiled the Collaborative Implementation Protocol, pledging to create safer, child-friendly learning environments amid high statistics of violence.

The Collaborative Implementation Protocol between SAPS and the Department of Basic Education is aimed at improving safety in schools around the country.

This document will be a practical guide to bring urgent action in every district, in every province and in every school.

The Department of Basic Education (DBE) and the SAPS, in 2011, formed a partnership to safeguard schools from crime and violence to protect learners and teachers.

A new implementation protocol was necessary to clarify each party’s roles, ensure a proper division of work plan activities and to ensure the protocol’s objectives are executed effectively at local level. This will also include implementing joint SAPS and DBE led crime prevention programmes within schools.

The protocol focuses on the following goals: promoting collaboration between the DBE and SAPS to implement pillar two of the Integrated Crime and Violence Prevention Strategy (ICVPS) for early violence prevention and connecting schools with local police stations for swift responses to crime and violence.

In addition, the protocol includes conducting searches and seizures in line with the South African Schools Act (SASA), when there is a reasonable suspicion of illegal substances or weapons; combatting social ills such as school-related Gender-Based Violence, sexual abuse, alcohol and drug use among learners; and addressing gangsterism in schools and surrounding communities.

Mchunu said there was a need to supplement the existing minimum safety standards in schools and that the Protocol served as one of those measures to strengthen safety and security in schools.

“During school holidays especially, we see a rise in burglary and vandalism. These are not victimless crimes. They rob our children of resources, time, and opportunity,” Mchunu said.

Criminal elements disrupt the education process and destabilise the very environments meant to nurture growth.

“As government leaders, elected by the people of this country, we carry a constitutional duty to realise the rights enshrined in our Constitution. The right to safety, the right to dignity and the right to education are not negotiable.

“These rights must be protected and upheld in every schoolyard, in every classroom and in every community.

“For us in the SAPS, our mandate is clear, to ensure that South Africans are and feel safe. But policing is not a one-department responsibility. It requires what we call a whole of government, whole of society approach.

“That means government institutions must work hand in hand. It means that communities, parents, civil society organisations and schools must come together and actively participate in efforts to make our environments safe and resilient,” Mchunu said.

Mchunu said the Protocol was designed to promote a community-based, inclusive approach to school safety.

“There is a need to establish functional communication lines between schools and police stations.

“To this end, the Protocol formalises the linkage between schools and their nearest police stations, ensuring that we have timeous, coordinated responses to incidents and proactive interventions to prevent crime,” he said.

To fully give effect, there is a need to recognise the urgent need to ensure that police stations are well resourced to adequately respond to incidents and that policing is proactive, responsive, efficient and effective.

“We cannot do this without parents, they must be active participants in the fight against crime starting in their own homes, in their streets and in their communities.” – SAnews.gov.za

MIL OSI Africa –

June 26, 2025
MIL-OSI Global: Migrants in South Africa’s economic powerhouse often go hungry: the drivers and what can be done about it
Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Adrino Mazenda, Senior Researcher, Associate Professor Economic Management Sciences, University of Pretoria

About 281 million people globally have migrated from their country of origin to another country. This movement can be temporary or permanent and can occur for various reasons, including economic opportunities, family reunification and education. Then there are also millions who are escaping conflict and seeking refuge in another country.

Countries at different stages of development also experience large volumes of internal migration. Migration within a country can be temporary or permanent too, and reflect economic reasons or insecurity.

Both types of migrants sometimes experience food insecurity: the physical and financial inability to access nutritious, safe and sufficient food to fulfil a person’s dietary requirements.

There are an estimated 2.89 million documented foreign migrants in South Africa, accounting for about 5% of the country’s population. Most immigrants in South Africa come from the Southern African Development Community countries. South Africa also experiences a high annual internal migration rate. About 850,0000 people temporarily and permanently relocate from rural to urban areas.

Gauteng, the province which contributes more than a third of South Africa’s economic output, attracts a disproportionate share of internal and international migration.

As social scientists who have been studying migration and food security, we conducted research to explore the food security status of migrant households (international and internal) and native Gauteng households, and to understand their differences, if any.

The study used data from the 2020/21 Quality of Life survey. This is one of the largest social surveys in South Africa, and respondents include both internal and international migrants. It is conducted every two years by the Gauteng City Region Observatory. Quantitative research methods and statistical analysis were then applied to identify patterns and relationships between food insecurity and migration variables.

Food insecurity remains a pressing concern in South Africa’s major cities, particularly among migrant populations. Not all migrants experience food insecurity the same way, however. Internal and international migrants differ not only from native Gauteng residents but also from one another. There are different factors influencing their vulnerability.

The differences

One differentiating factor between the internal and foreign migrants is government social support services. They seem to play a key role in determining the well-being of internal migrants. International migrants don’t qualify for such services. But they sometimes fared better than internal migrants or natives, likely due to age, education, or resourcefulness (social support networks).

Internal migrants experienced their own set of challenges. For example, poor health service provision and lack of medical aid were strong predictors of food insecurity. This suggests that addressing food access requires improvements in health services, insurance, and broader social infrastructure.

Improved access to healthcare reduces the financial burden on households dealing with medical expenses, so they can spend more on food. Access to maternal and child health services enhances nutritional knowledge and practices. That in turn improves the way households use food. Health insurance and unemployment insurance protect households from income shocks that could otherwise lead to food insecurity.

A stronger social infrastructure improves food access by enhancing education, healthcare, and social protection systems. Education boosts income and nutritional knowledge. Preventive healthcare reduces illness and medical expenses, freeing up resources for food. Social protection measures help households withstand financial shocks, ensuring consistent access to food.

Of course all this support has a cost that needs to be funded from the public purse, but its benefits may well outweigh the cost.

Gender disparities

Immigrants contribute significantly to South Africa’s economy. Migration enhances labour market flexibility, promotes economic dynamism, and supports livelihoods in both urban and rural areas, making it essential for inclusive economic growth.
Internal migrants provide labour in sectors such as mining, construction and services, while also supporting rural households through remittances. They help stimulate urban informal economies.

International migrants bring valuable skills and resilience to various sectors, including agriculture, healthcare, manufacturing and construction. They contribute local income taxes. Some operate small and large formal businesses, which adds to job creation.

However, employment data reveals a pronounced gender disparity among international migrants and internal migrants.

In all population groups (native residents, internal migrants and international migrants), men are more likely to be employed than women. Among international migrants, over 1 million men were employed compared to 400,000 women. More women (281,553) than men (88,598) were classified as economically inactive – not available for work.

The primary reason for internal migration among both men and women was the search for paid employment. For men, the second most common reason was job transfers or accepting new employment.

In contrast, female migrants cited moving to live with or be closer to a spouse, family, or friends, often due to marriage, as their main motivation.

Way forward

Our study highlights the determinants of food insecurity among migrant populations. It also challenges harmful stereotypes and invites more inclusive thinking about social support and job creation.

The study’s findings can help inform the public about who needs more support and why. It shows that food aid and government support systems aren’t working as intended.

The main conclusions we reached from the study were that:
- Rural health infrastructure is in dire need of public support.
- Increased inequities in healthcare access are unjustified.
- The medical and health bills of foreign citizens can be shared between home and host countries to reduce the strain on the host’s infrastructure through a combination of policy reforms, bilateral agreements and global cooperation mechanisms. Key to this is an inter-government billing system where host countries track migrants’ healthcare use and send bills to their home country governments or insurers.
- It is desirable for migrants to hold valid health insurance as a condition of entry or residency.
- Policies to promote agriculture and rural areas, particularly developing new rural housing schemes, appear to be a promising way to abate food insecurity.
- Revitalising special economic zones, the designated areas offering incentives to attract investment, boost trade and create jobs, can help limit the concentration of migrants in Gauteng.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Migrants in South Africa’s economic powerhouse often go hungry: the drivers and what can be done about it – https://theconversation.com/migrants-in-south-africas-economic-powerhouse-often-go-hungry-the-drivers-and-what-can-be-done-about-it-256907
MIL OSI – Global Reports –
June 26, 2025
MIL-OSI Africa: Migrants in South Africa’s economic powerhouse often go hungry: the drivers and what can be done about it
Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Adrino Mazenda, Senior Researcher, Associate Professor Economic Management Sciences, University of Pretoria

About 281 million people globally have migrated from their country of origin to another country. This movement can be temporary or permanent and can occur for various reasons, including economic opportunities, family reunification and education. Then there are also millions who are escaping conflict and seeking refuge in another country.

Countries at different stages of development also experience large volumes of internal migration. Migration within a country can be temporary or permanent too, and reflect economic reasons or insecurity.

Both types of migrants sometimes experience food insecurity: the physical and financial inability to access nutritious, safe and sufficient food to fulfil a person’s dietary requirements.

There are an estimated 2.89 million documented foreign migrants in South Africa, accounting for about 5% of the country’s population. Most immigrants in South Africa come from the Southern African Development Community countries. South Africa also experiences a high annual internal migration rate. About 850,0000 people temporarily and permanently relocate from rural to urban areas.

Gauteng, the province which contributes more than a third of South Africa’s economic output, attracts a disproportionate share of internal and international migration.

As social scientists who have been studying migration and food security, we conducted research to explore the food security status of migrant households (international and internal) and native Gauteng households, and to understand their differences, if any.

The study used data from the 2020/21 Quality of Life survey. This is one of the largest social surveys in South Africa, and respondents include both internal and international migrants. It is conducted every two years by the Gauteng City Region Observatory. Quantitative research methods and statistical analysis were then applied to identify patterns and relationships between food insecurity and migration variables.

Food insecurity remains a pressing concern in South Africa’s major cities, particularly among migrant populations. Not all migrants experience food insecurity the same way, however. Internal and international migrants differ not only from native Gauteng residents but also from one another. There are different factors influencing their vulnerability.

The differences

One differentiating factor between the internal and foreign migrants is government social support services. They seem to play a key role in determining the well-being of internal migrants. International migrants don’t qualify for such services. But they sometimes fared better than internal migrants or natives, likely due to age, education, or resourcefulness (social support networks).

Internal migrants experienced their own set of challenges. For example, poor health service provision and lack of medical aid were strong predictors of food insecurity. This suggests that addressing food access requires improvements in health services, insurance, and broader social infrastructure.

Improved access to healthcare reduces the financial burden on households dealing with medical expenses, so they can spend more on food. Access to maternal and child health services enhances nutritional knowledge and practices. That in turn improves the way households use food. Health insurance and unemployment insurance protect households from income shocks that could otherwise lead to food insecurity.

A stronger social infrastructure improves food access by enhancing education, healthcare, and social protection systems. Education boosts income and nutritional knowledge. Preventive healthcare reduces illness and medical expenses, freeing up resources for food. Social protection measures help households withstand financial shocks, ensuring consistent access to food.

Of course all this support has a cost that needs to be funded from the public purse, but its benefits may well outweigh the cost.

Gender disparities

Immigrants contribute significantly to South Africa’s economy. Migration enhances labour market flexibility, promotes economic dynamism, and supports livelihoods in both urban and rural areas, making it essential for inclusive economic growth. Internal migrants provide labour in sectors such as mining, construction and services, while also supporting rural households through remittances. They help stimulate urban informal economies.

International migrants bring valuable skills and resilience to various sectors, including agriculture, healthcare, manufacturing and construction. They contribute local income taxes. Some operate small and large formal businesses, which adds to job creation.

However, employment data reveals a pronounced gender disparity among international migrants and internal migrants.

In all population groups (native residents, internal migrants and international migrants), men are more likely to be employed than women. Among international migrants, over 1 million men were employed compared to 400,000 women. More women (281,553) than men (88,598) were classified as economically inactive – not available for work.

The primary reason for internal migration among both men and women was the search for paid employment. For men, the second most common reason was job transfers or accepting new employment.

In contrast, female migrants cited moving to live with or be closer to a spouse, family, or friends, often due to marriage, as their main motivation.

Way forward

Our study highlights the determinants of food insecurity among migrant populations. It also challenges harmful stereotypes and invites more inclusive thinking about social support and job creation.

The study’s findings can help inform the public about who needs more support and why. It shows that food aid and government support systems aren’t working as intended.

The main conclusions we reached from the study were that:
- Rural health infrastructure is in dire need of public support.
- Increased inequities in healthcare access are unjustified.
- The medical and health bills of foreign citizens can be shared between home and host countries to reduce the strain on the host’s infrastructure through a combination of policy reforms, bilateral agreements and global cooperation mechanisms. Key to this is an inter-government billing system where host countries track migrants’ healthcare use and send bills to their home country governments or insurers.
- It is desirable for migrants to hold valid health insurance as a condition of entry or residency.
- Policies to promote agriculture and rural areas, particularly developing new rural housing schemes, appear to be a promising way to abate food insecurity.
- Revitalising special economic zones, the designated areas offering incentives to attract investment, boost trade and create jobs, can help limit the concentration of migrants in Gauteng.
– Migrants in South Africa’s economic powerhouse often go hungry: the drivers and what can be done about it
– https://theconversation.com/migrants-in-south-africas-economic-powerhouse-often-go-hungry-the-drivers-and-what-can-be-done-about-it-256907

MIL OSI Africa –
June 26, 2025
MIL-OSI Global: More than half of US teens have had at least one cavity, but fluoride programs in schools help prevent them – new research

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Christina Scherrer, Professor of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Kennesaw State University

The research looked at the results of 31 studies and a total sample of more than 60,000 students. monkeybusinessimages/iStock via Getty Images Plus

Programs delivering fluoride varnish in schools significantly reduce cavities in children. That is a key finding of our recently published study in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

Fluoride varnish is a liquid that is applied to the teeth by a trained provider to reduce cavities. It does not require special dental devices and can be applied quickly in various settings.

Our research team found that school fluoride varnish programs, implemented primarily in communities with lower incomes and high cavity risk among children, achieve meaningful rates of student participation and reduced new cavities by 32% in permanent teeth and by 25% in primary – or “baby” – teeth.

We also found that school fluoride varnish programs reduced the progression of small cavities to more severe cavities by 10%. This positive impact held true among school children of various ages in preschool through high school, in rural or urban areas and in communities with and without fluoridated tap water. Fluoride varnish remained effective when delivered by various providers, including dentists, hygienists or trained lay workers.

This research was a large team collaboration on a systematic review, led by researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and from our universities. A systematic review is when researchers carefully collect and study all the best available research on a specific topic to figure out what the overall evidence shows.

Ultimately, our conclusions were based on 31 published studies that were reported in 43 peer-reviewed articles involving 60,780 students.

Diets high in sugar promote cavities.

Why is this important?

Although preventable, dental cavities are very common, with well over half of teenagers affected.

Untreated tooth decay can diminish a child’s ability to eat, speak, learn and play, and can negatively affect school attendance and grades.

Reducing tooth decay in youths is a national health objective.

In addition, we believe that since there is a growing movement in the U.S. to remove water fluoridation, other ways of protecting teeth with fluoride, such as toothpaste and varnish, will become more important. About three-quarters of the U.S. population using public water systems has been receiving fluoridated water at levels designed to strengthen enamel and prevent cavities. They will be at higher risk for cavities if fluoride is removed from their drinking water.

Fluoride varnish is recommended by the American Dental Association, the American Academy of Pediatrics, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force and others. However, many children don’t receive recommended preventive dental services, including fluoride varnish, at dental visits, with some estimates as low as 18% for children from families in low-income households.

This makes schools an important setting for delivery of fluoride varnish to increase access. Students typically receive a dental exam, oral health education and supplies, and referrals for dental care. Depending on state regulations, the varnish can be applied by dental and medical professionals or trained lay workers.

Our work led to the recommendation of school fluoride varnish by the Community Preventive Services Task Force, an independent panel of nationally recognized public health experts that provides evidence-based recommendations on programs and services to protect and improve health in the United States.

What still isn’t known

Limited funds are a barrier. We believe that further understanding the ways to reduce the cost of these programs would help to expand them and reach more students.

One key opportunity is relaxing the restrictions on application by health professionals such as medical assistants and registered nurses, which is allowed in some states but not others.

Programs also sometimes struggle to get schools and families fully engaged. More research could help us determine the best ways to increase the percentage of families that return their consent forms and make school fluoride programs easier to run.

Another barrier is that many states only provide insurance reimbursement for these programs through age 6. Thus, increasing the eligibility age served by medical providers can serve more children, increase the number of these programs and protect more children’s teeth from decay – supporting oral and overall health.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

Christina Scherrer receives funding related to this research from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Shillpa Naavaal received funding from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) related to this research. She is an executive board member and treasurer of the American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

– ref. More than half of US teens have had at least one cavity, but fluoride programs in schools help prevent them – new research – https://theconversation.com/more-than-half-of-us-teens-have-had-at-least-one-cavity-but-fluoride-programs-in-schools-help-prevent-them-new-research-259124

MIL OSI – Global Reports –

June 26, 2025
MIL-OSI Global: Grover Norquist’s lasting influence on the GOP and US economic policy

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Gibbs Knotts, Professor of Political Science, Coastal Carolina University

Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, speaks on Capitol Hill on Nov. 7, 2017. Alex Wong/Getty Images

In the “one, big, beautiful bill,” President Donald Trump has called for substantial decreases in federal domestic spending. However, a schism emerged between Republican lawmakers during the budget debates in Congress.

Some Republicans in blue states called for a tax increase for the wealthiest Americans, prompting longtime anti-tax advocate Grover Norquist to call the increase an “incredibly destructive idea economically, and very foolish politically.”

As he has done since the 1980s, Norquist demonstrated his influence over the GOP. Since Trump’s second inauguration, he has appeared in several high-profile news stories about the budget, including a Washington Post article where he said, “Tax cuts are income to Americans and a loss to the bureaucracy.”

Ultimately, the tax increase was defeated, and the Trump budget proposal passed the House on May 22, 2025.

Norquist praised the leadership from Speaker Mike Johnson and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, saying taxpayers owe them “bigly for managing a narrow Republican House Majority that was united and committed to reducing taxes on the American people.”

As scholars of U.S. politics, we examined Norquist’s emergence, traced debates about the scope and size of the American government and assessed Norquist’s relevance in the Donald Trump era, where he continues to wield considerable sway in the Republican Party.

The conscience of a conservative

In 1960, a slim, 123-page book changed the trajectory of American conservative thought.

“The Conscience of a Conservative,” written by Barry Goldwater, laid out the premise that an expansive federal bureaucracy was the root evil of government.

Four years later, Ronald Reagan launched his political career with a speech supporting Goldwater. His words echoed Goldwater: “No government ever voluntarily reduces itself in size … a government bureau is the nearest thing to eternal life we’ll ever see on this earth.”

Reagan ended the speech by noting, “You and I have a rendezvous with destiny.” Goldwater wouldn’t manifest that destiny, but Reagan, 16 years later, took this vision of fiscal conservatism to the White House.

By the 1980s, Goldwater’s limited government creed had become part of Republican dogma. Government wasn’t just bloated, according to Reagan. It was, as he noted, the problem. The Reagan presidency ushered in the doctrine of supply-side economics, which rests on the premise that tax cuts are key to stimulating economic growth.

Norquist’s emergence

Into this landscape stepped a young Norquist.

He had cut his teeth at the National Taxpayer’s Union, a fiscally conservative taxpayer advocacy group. Then, in 1981, he became the executive director of the College Republican National Committee.

In the first issue of CR Report, a college Republican newsletter, Norquist’s position as executive director was announced, and he provided a list of suggested readings. Among the titles he recommended were Goldwater’s “Conscience,” Milton Friedman’s “Capitalism and Freedom” and Friedrich Hayek’s “The Road to Serfdom.”

In 1985, Norquist founded Americans for Tax Reform to support his tax reduction efforts. As Norquist noted, “The tax issue is one thing everyone agrees on.”

He and his organization effectively institutionalized a permanent tax revolt in Congress supported by his “Taxpayer Protection Pledge,” a promise made starting in 1986 to oppose all efforts to increase marginal tax rates or reduce deductions or credits.

The pledge became a litmus test for fiscally conservative GOP candidates and cemented the party’s anti-tax stance.

Feeling this pressure, GOP nominee George H.W. Bush delivered his famous line, “read my lips, no new taxes,” at the 1988 Republican National Convention. Those six words were repeatedly used by primary challenger Pat Buchanan and Bush’s opponent in the general election, Bill Clinton, to raise questions about Bush’s honesty – since he made a pledge that he was unable to keep.

Newt Gingrich, speaker of the House of Representatives, holds up a copy of the ‘Contract With America’ during a speech on the steps of the U.S. Capitol in April 1995.
Richard Ellis/AFP via Getty Images

With Clinton in the White House in 1994, Norquist helped House Minority Whip Newt Gingrich write the “Contract with America” to legislate fiscal conservatism. Weaponizing government shutdowns and setting a more confrontational tone, congressional Republicans successfully rolled back welfare programs, reduced the size of government and cut taxes.

In 1995, they came two votes shy in the Senate of approving an amendment to the Constitution that would have required the federal budget to be balanced – with no borrowing – every year.

Anti-tax conservatism in the 21st century

In 2001, Norquist told a reporter at The Nation: “My goal is to cut government in half in twenty-five years to get it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub.”

This objective would have to wait during the George W. Bush presidency. Resulting in part from the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the Bush administration saw dramatic expansions of federal power and spending in homeland security, defense and Medicare, as well as a large increase in the budget deficit.

The tea party movement, a fiscally conservative political group, was formed in response to these Bush-era increases and two signature programs of the Barack Obama administration: the massive stimulus package, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, and his signature health care reform, the Affordable Care Act.

Norquist reveled in renewed attention to tax policies and the size of government, urging readers of The Guardian to “join the Tea Party movement.”

Norquist’s continuing legacy

For more than four decades, Norquist has been a relentless advocate for fiscal conservatism. He is the living embodiment of an ideological thread that stretches from Goldwater to Reagan to Gingrich to current GOP leadership.

Grover Norquist waits for the arrival of President Donald Trump in the East Room of the White House on March 21, 2019.
AP Photo/Evan Vucci

The ongoing debates about the Trump budget are just the latest example of Norquist’s influence. He continues to play an active role in debates about the federal budget and still has considerable sway with Republicans.

However, Norquist’s uncompromising stance on taxes has coincided with increases in federal spending, surging budget deficits and increased national debt.

That additional debt is accumulating because many Republicans have adopted his anti-tax position while simultaneously increasing defense budgets, maintaining or expanding entitlement spending and lowering taxes on the wealthiest Americans.

Nevertheless, Norquist continues to be the fiscal conscience of the Republican Party. Politicians come and go. Powerful ideas, and those who champion them, endure.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Grover Norquist’s lasting influence on the GOP and US economic policy – https://theconversation.com/grover-norquists-lasting-influence-on-the-gop-and-us-economic-policy-256978

MIL OSI – Global Reports –

June 26, 2025
MIL-OSI Africa: Basic Education and Police Chairpersons Welcome Signing of Collaborative Protocols on School Safety

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The Chairpersons of the Portfolio Committee on Police, Mr Ian Cameron, and the Portfolio Committee on Basic Education, Ms Joy Maimela, welcome the bold step taken by the Ministers of Police and of Basic Education to sign and launch the Collaborative Implementation Protocol on School Safety. The protocols, if properly implemented, will be a game-changer in school safety, especially with increasing incidents of crime in the four identified provinces.

“The murder of Lethabo Mokonyane four days ago underscores the trend of violent crime in and around school premises that requires a concerted effort by all stakeholders to bring an end to this worrying trend. School environments should be safe spaces for teaching and learning and nothing else,” Ms Maimela said.

The intention to focus the roll-out in four provinces, namely Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape and Western Cape, is in line with calls for data-driven focus in combating crime. “The approach to target hotspots has the potential of stemming the tide of crime in schools. But it is up to station-level management to implement the protocols effectively to ensure success,” Mr Cameron emphasised.

Both Chairpersons highlighted concern that the fourth-quarter crime statistics revealed six reported murders and 80 rapes in educational institutions. The intended intervention of increasing police visibility and linking schools to a police station has the potential to reverse these high numbers.

Furthermore, Ms Maimela commended the intention of improving the vetting process for educators and staff in schools against the National Register for Sex Offenders and the National Child Protection Register. “This has long been a requirement to obtain a position in schools to safeguard vulnerable groups but was neglected. It is important that such safeguards are adhered to without fail,” Ms Maimela argued.

The question of substance abuse was also highlighted as a concern that requires a society-wide approach as it has far-reaching consequences, especially for schools. Mr Cameron highlighted that municipalities must also play their role in enforcing municipal bylaws that prohibit the establishment of liquor-selling premises near schools.

Both committees have committed to ensuring effective oversight over the implementation of the protocols.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of Republic of South Africa: The Parliament.

MIL OSI Africa –

June 26, 2025
MIL-OSI United Nations: 25 June 2025 Joint News Release Energy Access Has Improved, Yet International Financial Support Still Needed to Boost Progress and Address Disparities
Source: World Health Organisation

Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2025 finds that almost 92% of the world’s population now has basic access to electricity Although this is an improvement since 2022, which saw the number of people without basic access decrease for the first time in a decade, over 666 million people remain without access, indicating that the current rate is insufficient to reach universal access by 2030. Clean cooking access is progressing but below the rates of progress seen in the 2010s, as efforts remain hobbled by setbacks during the Covid-19 pandemic, following energy price shocks, and debt crises.

Released today, the latest edition of the annual report that tracks progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 highlights the role of distributed renewable energy (a combination of mini-grid and off-grid solar systems) to accelerate access, since the population remaining unconnected lives mostly in remote, lower-income, and fragile areas. Cost-effective and rapidly scalable, decentralised solutions are able to reach communities in such rural areas.

Decentralised solutions are also needed to increase access to clean cooking. With an estimated 1.5 billion people residing in rural areas still lacking access to clean cooking, the use of off-grid clean technologies, such as household biogas plants and mini-grids that facilitate electric cooking, can provide solutions that reduce health impacts caused by household air pollution. Over 670 million people remain without electricity access, and over 2 billion people remain dependent on polluting and hazardous fuels such as firewood and charcoal for their cooking needs.

Notable progress was made in different indicators. The international financial flows to developing countries in support of clean energy grew for the third year in a row to reach USD 21.6 billion in 2023. Installed renewables capacity per capita continued to increase year-on-year to reach a new high of 341 watts per capita in developing countries, up from 155 watts in 2015.

Yet regional disparities persist, indicating that particular support is needed for developing regions. In sub-Saharan Africa – which lags behind across most indicators – renewables deployment has rapidly expanded but remains limited to 40 watts of installed capacity per capita on average which is only one-eighth of the average of other developing countries. Eighty-five percent of the global population without electricity access reside in the region, while four in five families are without access to clean cooking. And the number of people without clean cooking access in the region continues to grow at a rate of 14 million people yearly.

The report identified the lack of sufficient and affordable financing as a key reason for regional inequalities and slow progress. To build on the achievements to date and avoid any further regressions on access to electricity and clean cooking due to looming risks in global markets, the report calls for strengthened international cooperation of public and private sectors, to scale up financial support for developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Urgent actions include reforms in multilateral and bilateral lending to expand the availability of public capital; more concessional finance mobilisation, grants, and risk mitigation instruments; improvement in risk tolerance among donors; as well as appropriate national energy planning and regulations.

Key findings across primary indicators
- Almost 92% of the world’s population now has access to electricity, leaving over 666 million people without electricity in 2023, with around 310 million people gaining access since 2015. Eighteen of the 20 countries with the largest electricity access deficits in 2023 were in sub-Saharan Africa. The greatest growth in access between 2020 and 2023 occurred in Central and Southern Asia, with both regions making significant strides towards universal electricity access, reducing their basic access gap from 414 million in 2010 to just 27 million in 2023.
- Little to no change was observed in access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking between 2022 and 2023. Although the number of the world’s population with access to clean cooking fuels and technologies increased from 64% in 2015 to 74% in 2023, around 2.1 billion people remain dependent on polluting fuels and technologies. If current trends continue, only 78% of the global population will have access to clean cooking by 2030.
- In 2022, the global share of renewable energy sources in total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 17.9% as TFEC continued to increase gradually, while installed renewable energy capacity reached 478 watts per capita in 2023, indicating almost 13% growth from 2022. But progress is not sufficient to meet international climate and sustainable development goals. In addition, global efforts must address significant disparities. Despite progress in expanding renewable capacity, least developed countries and sub-Saharan Africa had only 40 watts per capita in installed renewables capacity, compared to developed countries which had over 1,100 watts installed.
- Global energy efficiency experienced sluggish progress in recent years. The global trend shows that primary energy intensity, defined as the ratio of total energy supply to gross domestic product, declined by 2.1% in 2022. Although it is an improvement of more than four times the weak 0.5% improvement rate of 2021, it is insufficient to meet the original SDG 7.3 target. Going forward, energy intensity needs to improve by 4% per year on average.
- International public financial flows to developing countries in support of clean energy increased by 27% from 2022, reaching USD 21.6 billion in 2023. However, the report reveals that the developing world received fewer flows in 2023 than in 2016, when commitments peaked at USD 28.4 billion. Despite gradual diversification, funding remained concentrated, with only two sub-Saharan African countries in the top five recipients. Debt-based instruments drove most of the increase in international public flows in 2023, accounting for 83% in 2023, while grants made up only 9.8% of flows.
The report will be presented to decision-makers at a special launch event on 16 July 2025 at the High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development in New York, which oversees progress on the SDGs.

Quotes

Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency

“Despite progress in some parts of the world, the expansion of electricity and clean cooking access remains disappointingly slow, especially in Africa. This is contributing to millions of premature deaths each year linked to smoke inhalation, and is holding back development and education opportunities. Greater investment in clean cooking and electricity supply is urgently required, including support to reduce the cost of capital for projects.”

Francesco La Camera, Director-General, International Renewable Energy Agency

“Renewables have seen record growth in recent years, reminding the world of its affordability, scalability, and its role in further reducing energy poverty. But we must accelerate progress at this crunch time. This means overcoming challenges, which include infrastructure gaps. The lack of progress, especially on infrastructure, is a reflection of limited access to financing. Although international financial flows to developing countries in support of clean energy grew to USD 21.6 billion in 2023, only two regions in the world have seen real progress in the financial flows. To close the access and infrastructure gaps, we need strengthened international cooperation to scale up affordable financing and impact–driven capital for the least developed and developing countries.”

Stefan Schweinfest, Director, United Nations Statistics Division

“This year’s report shows that now is the time to come together to build on existing achievements and scale up our efforts. Despite advancements in increasing renewables-based electricity, which now makes up almost 30 percent of global electricity consumption, the use of renewables for other energy-related purposes remains stagnant. While energy intensity improved in 2022, overall progress remains weak, threatening economic growth and the energy efficiency goals agreed upon at COP28. The clock is ticking. The findings of this year’s report should serve as a rallying point, to rapidly mobilize efforts and investments, so that together, we ensure sustainable energy for all by 2030.”

Guangzhe Chen, Vice President for Infrastructure, World Bank

“As we approach the five-year mark to achieve the SDG7 targets, it is imperative to accelerate the deployment of electricity connections, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where half of the 666 million people lacking access reside. As part of the Mission 300 movement, 12 African nations have launched national energy compacts, in which they commit to substantial reforms to lower costs of generation and transmission, and scale up distributed renewable energy solutions. Initiatives such as this unite governments, the private sector, and development partners in a collaborative effort.

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General, World Health Organization

“The same pollutants that are poisoning our planet are also poisoning people, contributing to millions of deaths each year from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, particularly among the most vulnerable, including women and children,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. “We urgently need scaled-up action and investment in clean cooking solutions to protect the health of both people and planet—now and in the future.”

About the report

This report is published by the SDG 7 custodian agencies, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), the World Bank, and the World Health Organization (WHO) and aims to provide the international community with a global dashboard to register progress on energy access, energy efficiency, renewable energy and international cooperation to advance SDG 7.

This year’s edition was chaired by IRENA.

The report can be downloaded at https://trackingsdg7.esmap.org/

Funding for the report was provided by the World Bank’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP).

MIL OSI United Nations News –
June 26, 2025
MIL-OSI Global: How your gut bacteria could help detect pancreatic cancer early

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Falk Hildebrand, Researcher in Bioinformatician, Quadram Institute

SewCreamStudio/Shutterstock

Whether you had breakfast this morning or not, your pancreas is working quietly behind the scenes. This vital organ produces the enzymes that help digest your food and the hormones that regulate your metabolism. But when something goes wrong with your pancreas, the consequences can be devastating.

Pancreatic cancer has earned the grim nickname “the silent killer” for good reason. By the time most patients experience symptoms, the disease has often progressed to an advanced stage where treatment options become severely limited. In the UK alone, over 10,700 new cases and 9,500 deaths from pancreatic cancer were recorded between 2017 and 2019, with incidence rates continuing to rise.

The most common form, pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), develops in the pancreatic duct – a tube connecting the pancreas to the small intestine. When tumours form here, they can block the flow of digestive enzymes, causing energy metabolism problems that leave patients feeling chronically tired and unwell. Yet these symptoms are often so subtle that they’re easily dismissed or attributed to other causes.

Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

Now researchers are turning to an unexpected source for early PDAC detection: faecal samples. While analysing poo might seem an unlikely approach to cancer diagnosis, scientists are discovering that our waste contains a treasure trove of information about our health.

This is because your gut is home to trillions of bacteria – in fact, bacterial cells in your body outnumber human cells by roughly 40 trillion to 30 trillion. These microscopic residents form complex communities that can reflect the state of your health, including the presence of disease.

Since PDAC typically develops in the part of the pancreas that connects to the gut, and most people have regular bowel movements, stool samples provide a practical, non-invasive window into what is happening inside the body.

Pancreatic cancer explained,

Global evidence builds

This innovative approach has been validated in studies across several countries, including Japan, China and Spain. The latest breakthrough comes from a 2025 international study involving researchers in Finland and Iran, which set out to examine the relationship between gut bacteria and pancreatic cancer onset across different populations.

The researchers collected stool samples and analysed bacterial DNA using a technique called 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing. Despite the complex name, the principle is straightforward: scientists sequence and compare a genetic region found in every bacterium’s genome, allowing them to both identify and count different bacterial species simultaneously.

The findings from the Finnish-Iranian study were striking. Patients with PDAC exhibited reduced bacterial diversity in their gut, with certain species either enriched or depleted compared with healthy people. More importantly, the team developed an artificial intelligence model that could accurately distinguish between cancer patients and healthy people based solely on their gut bacterial profiles.

The field of microbiome research is evolving rapidly. While this study used amplicon sequencing, newer methods like “shotgun metagenomic sequencing” are providing even more detailed insights. This advanced technique captures the entire bacterial genome content rather than focusing on a single gene, offering an unprecedented resolution that can even detect whether bacteria have recently transferred between individuals.

These technological advances are driving a fundamental shift in how we think about health and disease. We’re moving from a purely human-centred view to understanding ourselves as “human plus microbiome” – complex ecosystems where our bacterial partners play crucial roles in our wellbeing.

Beyond pancreatic cancer

The possibilities go well beyond pancreatic cancer. At Quadram, we’re applying similar methods to study colorectal cancer. We’ve already analysed over a thousand stool samples using advanced computational tools that piece together bacterial genomes and their functions from fragmented DNA. This ongoing work aims to reveal how gut microbes behave in colorectal cancer, much like other scientists have done for PDAC.

The bidirectional interactions between cancer and bacteria are particularly fascinating – not only can certain bacterial profiles indicate disease presence, but the disease itself can alter the gut microbiome, as we previously showed in Parkinson’s disease, creating a complex web of cause and effect that researchers are still unravelling.

Nonetheless, by understanding how our microbial partners respond to and influence disease, we’re gaining insights that could revolutionise both diagnosis and treatment. Our past research has shown this to be incredibly complex and sometimes difficult to understand, but developments in biotechnology and artificial intelligence are increasingly helping us to make sense of this microscopic world.

For cancer patients and their families, this and other advancements in microbiome research offer hope for earlier detection. While we’re still in the early stages of translating these findings into clinical practice, the potential to catch this silent killer before it becomes deadly could transform outcomes for thousands of patients, but will require more careful and fundamental research.

The microbial perspective on health is no longer a distant scientific curiosity – it’s rapidly becoming a practical reality that could save lives. As researchers continue to explore this inner frontier, we’re learning that the answer to some of our most challenging medical questions might be hiding in plain sight – in the waste we flush away each day.

Falk Hildebrand receives funding from the UKRI, BBSRC, NERC and ERC.

Daisuke Suzuki receives funding from Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.

– ref. How your gut bacteria could help detect pancreatic cancer early – https://theconversation.com/how-your-gut-bacteria-could-help-detect-pancreatic-cancer-early-259220

MIL OSI – Global Reports –

June 26, 2025
MIL-OSI China: Sri Lanka to enforce strict ban on child begging

Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

The Sri Lankan government announced Wednesday that it will begin strictly enforcing laws prohibiting the use of children under 16 for begging and street vending, and will also crack down on the employment of children aged 16 to 18 in hazardous jobs and as domestic workers, starting July 1, 2025.

According to a statement from the Department of Government Information, under the Children’s Rights Ordinance, anyone under 18 years old is considered a child, and children make up about 30 percent of Sri Lanka’s total population.

Recent statistics indicate that some children are forced into various forms of labor, becoming street children due to human trafficking, the statement said.

In response, the Cabinet of Ministers has approved measures to strictly enforce existing laws against child labor and begging. The government also plans to raise public awareness about these issues through a public education campaign, the statement said.

MIL OSI China News –

June 26, 2025
MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Leader welcomes positive outlook for Edinburgh’s economy

Source: Scotland – City of Edinburgh

Council Leader Jane Meagher writes in the Evening News today to welcome positive news for Edinburgh’s economy.

Edinburgh has long been Scotland’s economic powerhouse and we’re now ahead of London for the first time.

The value of goods and services produced here in Edinburgh per person has now surpassed London’s. That’s according to economic data recently published by the Office for National Statistics.

The figures reveal gross domestic product per head of £69,809 in Edinburgh, compared to £69,077 in London. This steady growth of Edinburgh’s economy to outperform that of London’s is no small feat. Twenty-five years ago, this same data put London 19% ahead of Edinburgh, highlighting just how well we perform as a city.

This is good news for our local businesses, and it shows that Edinburgh is an environment in which small, local enterprises can thrive. It also demonstrates the confidence global investors have in Edinburgh. In the last year alone, we’ve welcomed 27 instances of foreign direct investment, from shops like Søstrene Grene and MINISO to major renewable energy consultants PSC.

This is impressive and is in part thanks to the city’s resilient business community and strong employment opportunities. The economy in the city has been driven forward by a combination of relying on established sectors such as, financial services and our universities, as well as embracing new and emerging opportunities in areas such as life sciences and technology.

Linked to this, we’ve seen the UK Chancellor commit up to £750 million for the city and the region for a next generation ‘Exascale super-computer’ at the University of Edinburgh. This will be a national asset supporting jobs and investment and reaffirms the region’s role as an economic powerhouse. This is in keeping with the eight growth-driving sectors identified in the new Industrial Strategy, placing Edinburgh and the region in a strong position to continue to receive investment and grow the local economy.

On top of this, £410 million will be shared across the devolved nations for a Local Innovation Partnership Fund and it makes great sense for our City Region to lead on this in Scotland. From artificial intelligence to data and robotics, this money could unlock a huge amount of investment, building on the successful projects we’ve already delivered, including the National Robotarium, the Usher Institute and Easter Bush which is now the global location of ‘Agritech’ excellence.

Given Edinburgh’s longstanding innovation capabilities it is fantastic that we will be able to reap the associated economic, social and environmental benefits. That said, our challenge is to manage Edinburgh’s success and growth, and ensure it is fair and sustainable. To keep thriving, we need to manage the pressures placed on our housing, environment and our residents. This is the fastest growing city in Scotland, with the population expected to increase by 60,000 over the next 20 years and over four million visitors every year.

Everyone should be able to benefit from Edinburgh’s continued economic success. We are clearly contributing more than our share to the Scottish and UK economies and both governments should continue to take note.

MIL OSI United Kingdom –

June 26, 2025
MIL-OSI USA: Since DHS Immigration Enforcement in Los Angeles Began, Border Crossings Continue to Plummet

Source: US Federal Emergency Management Agency

Headline: Since DHS Immigration Enforcement in Los Angeles Began, Border Crossings Continue to Plummet

lass=”text-align-center”>Apprehensions and gotaways are almost 50% lower since operations in LA started
WASHINGTON – Since the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) began removing worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens from sanctuary city Los Angeles, apprehensions and gotaways at the U

S

Southern border plummeted nearly 50% from May to June

Sanctuary cities are no longer a safe haven, and we have made the message clear: We will hunt down criminal illegal aliens and remove them from our communities

On June 6, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) started an operation removing the worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens

Despite the rhetoric from politicians, riots, and wide-scale assaults on enforcement officers, DHS is continuing to make Los Angeles and the Southern border more secure

The data speaks for itself: From June 1 -22 of this year, apprehensions totaled 5,414 while just one month ago in May, U

S

Border Patrol apprehensions were 9,577

Since the beginning of June, gotaways totaled only 986, compared to 2,123 in May

This is nearly a 50% decrease since operations started

The difference in these stats from the Biden Administration to the Trump Administration is staggering

From February 1 to June 22 of this year, apprehensions totaled only 37,518, while just one year ago nearly 600,000 apprehensions were made during the same time

Gotaways showed a similar decrease with 11,867 between February and June in 2025, compared to over 94,007 during the same time in 2024

“Secretary Noem is delivering on President Trump’s promise to secure the border by removing murders, pedophiles, and drug traffickers from Los Angeles,” said Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin

“In less than a month since we started LA enforcement operations, apprehensions and gotaways at the Southern border halved

The world is hearing our message: If you come here illegally, we will find you, arrest you, and deport you

We will not be deterred by the rioters and politicians in our mission to secure America and its border

Migrants are turning back because they know the reality is they will ultimately leave in handcuffs

”

MIL OSI USA News –

June 25, 2025
MIL-OSI NGOs: GLOBAL: Countries must act fast to save the Sustainable Development Goals

Source: Amnesty International –

With countries in danger of failing to meet their Sustainable Development Goals targets – and their human rights obligations – leaders attending the Financing for Development Conference must act fast to avert climate catastrophe and guarantee the human rights of billions of people currently being denied socio-economic justice, said Amnesty International.

The 4th International Conference for Financing for Development will take place from 30 June to 3 July in Seville, Spain. It provides a unique opportunity to reform development financing at all levels and address financing challenges preventing the urgently needed investment push to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. The SDGs were put in place 10 years ago to guarantee peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and in the future.

“Years of underinvestment by all states mean the majority of the Sustainable Development Goals are way off track from their 2030 target. This conference must confront the immediate crisis linked to the cutting of international assistance by major donors whilst committing to structural reforms that could provide sustainable sources of financing for the longer term – from advancing international tax cooperation and addressing the debt crisis, to reforming international financial institutions and promoting more inclusive systems of financing and development,” said Riva Jalipa, Amnesty International’s Financing for Rights Lead Adviser.

A series of robust measures must be put in place if the Sustainable Development Goals are to become a reality.

Riva Jalipa, Amnesty International’s Financing for Rights Lead Adviser

“A series of robust measures must be put in place if the SDGs are to become a reality. The US and other governments must reverse cuts to aid budgets. Wealthy states must support the UN tax treaty process whilst providing debt relief for countries in or at risk of debt distress including cancellation where appropriate. Fossil fuels subsidies must be redirected towards investment in clean energy and leaders must commit to a full, fast, fair and funded fossil fuel phase out across all sectors and invest adequately in a just and equitable transition. Adopting these measures will go a long way to rescuing the SDGs and ensure social, economic and climate justice for millions across the world.”

Amnesty International will also be co-hosting a Virtual Side Event at the Financing for Development Conference, Seville: Reparative Justice in Financing for Development. The session will focus on development financing and reparative justice as a means through which a human rights-based economy which redresses both existing and historical injustices can not only be conceptualized but also practically actioned. Register to attend via Zoom.

Background

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were put in place 10 years ago to guarantee peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and in the future. The 17 goals aimed to address global challenges, including poverty, inequality, climate change, environmental degradation, peace, and justice – to ensure no one was left behind. However,years of underinvestment by all states mean over 80% of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)’ targets are off track due to underinvestment by all states.

MIL OSI NGO –

June 25, 2025
MIL-OSI Analysis: How’s the UK attempt to reach net zero going? There’s good news and bad news

Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Barrett, Professor of Energy and Climate Policy, Deputy Director of the Priestly Centre for Climate Futures, Theme Lead for the UKRI Energy Demand Research Centre, University of Leeds

BOY ANTHONY/Shutterstock

Each year, the Climate Change Committee – the UK’s independent advisory body tasked with monitoring the country’s movement toward its legally binding climate goals – gives a report on the government’s progress over the last year.

The Climate Change Committee’s new 2025 progress report is a mix of good and bad news about whether the UK is on track to meet its greenhouse gas emissions targets. These include a 68% reduction by 2030 and an 81% reduction by 2035, relative to 1990 levels.

Meeting these targets requires long lead times. It takes years to develop and deploy low-carbon technologies, change social practices and align industrial and economic policy with net zero ambitions. The Climate Change Committee’s analysis goes beyond simply measuring emissions — it also evaluates whether the right policies are in place across sectors such as transport, buildings, energy and industry.

So how is the UK doing? Between 1990 and 2024, the UK halved its greenhouse gas emissions, primarily by decarbonising the power sector, improving energy efficiency and shifts in the UK’s industrial base. This equates to an average annual reduction of 0.7%.

Since the committee was established in 2008, the rate of reduction has more than doubled. In the last decade, since the Paris agreement was signed in 2015, the UK has decarbonised at around 3.4% per year. To meet the 2030 and 2035 targets, the pace of reduction has to continue at this level, but from a wider set of sectors.

However, the analysis in the CCC report suggests that even this may not be fast enough. A major scientific review recently warned the world has just three years left in its global carbon budget if we are to stay within the 1.5°C temperature limit agreed in the Paris agreement.

A mixed picture

We are both involved with the committee and its work. Piers Forster, a climate scientist, has served on the committee since 2018 and is currently its chair. John Barrett provides key data on imported emissions and regularly provides analysis into the committee’s work.

On the positive side, the UK continues to expand renewable energy capacity, which not only cuts emissions but lowers energy bills and improves energy security. Emissions from the energy supply sector decreased 17% last year.

A fifth of new vehicles sold are now electric. For the first time, evidence shows that electric cars are causing transport emissions to decline, even as people are travelling more. Tree planting rates also increased by 56% last year, mainly in Scotland.

However, this report highlights serious gaps. With only five years left until 2030, the Climate Change Committee estimates that 39% of the required emissions reductions are not adequately backed by government policy.

Growing demand in high-carbon sectors like aviation is offsetting gains made in electricity generation. Aviation emissions are now scarily largely than those from electricity generation and rising fast.

Time is running out and climate action is urgently required.
banu sevim/Shutterstock

Although nearly 100,000 heat pumps were installed last year, emissions from buildings are still rising. In road transport, while electric vehicle adoption is growing, there’s been little shift towards shared public transport options such as buses and trains. In industry, policies around resource efficiency and consumption remain underdeveloped.

Critically, the Climate Change Committee notes that electricity currently accounts for just 18% of the UK’s total energy demand, and suggests that 80% of required emissions reductions must come from sectors beyond energy supply. The rates of decarbonisation need to more than double in these other sectors.

Yet, policy to reduce overall energy demand remains weak. This is a broader agenda than reducing household energy bills but a more fundamental appreciation of how the UK’s energy demand can be shaped in the future.

The UK cannot rely on technology alone. The climate transition can benefit from changes in how we live, move, consume and produce. Making such changes would make us less dependent on fossil fuel imports, put more money in our pockets from efficiency savings and make us healthier by improving air quality, increase exercise levels through more active travel such as walking and cycling and make our homes more comfortable in both hot and cold conditions.

A truly credible response to the climate crisis demands a whole-system approach. That means aligning climate goals with economic and social policy, and recognising the broader benefits — from improved health to reduced inequality — that come with reducing energy demand.

The window to act is closing. The UK has made progress, but without more ambitious and integrated action, it risks falling short when it matters most.

According to the Climate Change Committee report, the UK can deliver both its legislated targets and its internationally-committed emission reduction targets if it takes decisive policy action. And with the right political will that’s possible in a cost-effective way that improves the lives of its citizens.

Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

John Barrett receives funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ).

Piers Forster receives funding from UK and European research councils. He is interim chair of the Climate Change Committee

– ref. How’s the UK attempt to reach net zero going? There’s good news and bad news – https://theconversation.com/hows-the-uk-attempt-to-reach-net-zero-going-theres-good-news-and-bad-news-259580

MIL OSI Analysis –

June 25, 2025
MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: LCQ10: Promoting the development of the popular artistic toy industry

Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region – 4

Following is a question by the Hon Jeffrey Lam and a written reply by the Secretary for Culture, Sports and Tourism, Miss Rosanna Law, in the Legislative Council today (June 25):

Question:

It has been reported that in recent years, the popular artistic toy industry and the “goods economy” (i.e. economic activities relating to intellectual property (IP) peripheral products of animation, comics, games, idols, etc) have expanded rapidly worldwide. Last year, the global market of “blind boxes” (i.e. sealed boxes whose IP peripheral products are not made known to consumers in advance) reached US$14.5 billion (approximately HK$113.1 billion), with some IP merchandise created by Hong Kong designers generating hundreds of millions of dollars in value in the international market. However, there are views that the popular artistic toy industrial chain in Hong Kong is not yet mature and requires precise policy support. In this connection, will the Government inform this Council:

(1) whether it has compiled statistics for the period between 2022 and 2024 on (i) the number of companies registered in Hong Kong that were involved in the design, production or sale of popular artistic toys, (ii) the contribution of the popular artistic toy industry to Gross Domestic Product, (iii) the number of professional practitioners in the popular artistic toy industry, and (iv) among the projects approved under the Government’s funding schemes or funds for driving the development of the cultural and creative industries (e.g. the CreateSmart Initiative), the proportion of projects related to the popular artistic toy industry and the total amount of funding involved; if such data is unavailable, whether the Government will review if this emerging industry is outside the scope of the existing policy;

(2) whether it has compiled statistics on the number of registrations filed with the Intellectual Property Department by local designers for artistic toy character designs from 2022 to 2024, and the number of cases in which Hong Kong enterprises have successfully turned local IP into mass-produced merchandise;

(3) of the number of pop-up stores or exhibitions relating to the theme of popular artistic toys that were approved to be held in public venues (e.g. the West Kowloon Cultural District and galleries of the Leisure and Cultural Services Department) in the past year, and the average duration of such exhibitions;

(4) among the events supported by the Mega Events Coordination Group last year, of the proportion of mega events that had the theme of popular artistic toys (e.g. designers’ autograph and sale sessions and blind box bazaars), as well as the data on the number of people who attended such events; and

(5) as the Financial Secretary pointed out earlier on in a blog post that some IP with Hong Kong elements created by Hong Kong designers has generated hundreds of millions of dollars in value, and there are views that this reflects that the calibre of the local creative industry is of an international standard, whether the Government has formulated specific measures to assist in the development of the industrialisation of Hong Kong’s IP and to promote the maximisation of the value of local IP; if so, of the details; if not, the reasons for that?

Reply:

President,

Art toy refers to toys designed by designers and artists, and infused with rich cultural connotations and fashionable creativity. It can be traced back to figures in the 1960s of the 20th century which were mostly derivative models of anime characters for the purposes of appreciation and collection. Noting the emergence and development of art toy in recent years which bring in opportunities for the creative industries in Hong Kong, the Cultural and Creative Industries Development Agency (CCIDA) under the Culture, Sports and Tourism Bureau (CSTB) has been actively supporting projects related to Hong Kong’s art toy industry, including setting up Hong Kong pavilions at exhibitions in the Mainland and overseas to support the industry in the promotion of art toys originated in Hong Kong.

My reply to the various parts of the question raised by the Hon Jeffrey Lam’s question, in consultation with the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD) and the Intellectual Property Department (IPD), is as follows:

(1) The cultural and creative industries (CCI) form an integral part of creating a diversified economy in Hong Kong. CCI covers the design sector whereas art toy design is grouped under this sector. According to the C&SD’s latest statistics, the value added by the design sector reached over $4.2 billion in 2023, accounting for over 0.1% of Gross Domestic Product in Hong Kong, and 3.1% of that of CCI. The number of establishments and practitioners engaged in the design sector were around 7 490 and 18 650 respectively.

From 2022 till now, the CCIDA funded and fostered eight Hong Kong art toy-related projects through the CreateSmart Initiative (CSI). Overseas projects included driving the industry to participate in “Promote Hong Kong Designer Toys through Thailand Exhibitions”, “Promote Hong Kong Designer Toys through Thailand Toy Expo 2024”, “Promote Hong Kong Art Toys through Indonesia Exhibition 2024” and “Promote Hong Kong Art Toys through Thailand Toy Expo 2025”. These four projects facilitated over 20 business deals and more than 370 business enquiries and contacts, and ideal selling records were made for individual participating designers. For example, a Hong Kong art toy designer sold art toys of over $0.5 million and successfully reached out an Indonesian toy agent to expand his retail business in Indonesia. In the Mainland, the CSI funded the industry to participate in “Hong Kong Creative Pavilion@China (Shenzhen) International Cultural Industry Expo and Trade Fair plus Hong Kong@Shenzhen Cultural Industry Expo”, “Hong Kong Creative Pavilion@2024 Hangzhou Cultural & Creative Industry Expo”, “China International Cartoon & Animation Festival (Hangzhou)” and “China International Animation Copyright Fair (Dongguan)”. The CCIDA set up Hong Kong pavilions in these exhibitions to promote Hong Kong’s art toy, animation, game and related industries. These four Hong Kong pavilions attracted a total of over 160 000 participants, reaching out over 1 300 business deals and more than 120 business enquiries and contacts. The eight projects obtained about $38 million of the CSI funding.

In fact, Hong Kong creators made great achievements in the global art toy industries in recent years. Their art toy characters designed and the products generated by their intellectual properties (IPs) successfully occupy a remarkable market share in markets of Hong Kong, the Mainland and overseas. Among them, Hong Kong renowned designers Lung Ka-sing and Kenny Wong created iconic art toy products, making great profits for the art toy industries. Lung also won an illustration award in Belgium, being the first Chinese designer to win this prize. Besides, Wong’s designs have collaborations with various international trendy brands for rolling out IP products.

(2) According to the IPD, the Locarno classification published by the World Intellectual Property Organization is the system adopted for classifying articles under the local registered designs system. There is no specific class for “artistic toy characters”, which are instead classified under Class 21 (sub-class 01) – “games and toys”. The numbers of applications and registrations under this sub-class from 2022 to 2024 are as follows:

2022 2023 2024

Number of applications
(Number of designs involved (Note 1)) 31
(66) 39
(79) 59
(82)

Number of registrations (Note 2) 78 76 41

Note 1: Each design application may contain one or more designs.
Note 2: Since it takes time to process applications, the number of registrations shown may not equal to the number of applications received in a particular year.

Other than obtaining protection for the design of an article under the registered designs system, the same may also be considered as a sign for registration under the trade marks system, or as an original artistic work protected by the copyright system (registration not required). Rights holders need to consider their overall IP protection and utilisation strategy, as well as the relevant legal requirements.

Over the years, there have been numerous examples of Hong Kong businesses transforming local cultural and creative IPs into mass-produced products. This may be done by various ways such as sales and licensing, and it also depends on the types of IPs being utilised. The Government does not have statistics in this regard.

(3) and (4) Different types of mega events in Hong Kong cover various areas, among which many of the events with profound IP elements are well received by the public. Events in 2024 include “100% DORAEMON & FRIENDS” Tour, Pokémon GO City Safari, PANDA GO! FEST HK, ComplexCon Hong Kong, Hypefest Hong Kong, and the annual Ani-com & Games Hong Kong that gathers animation, comics and figurines, etc. The CSTB supported these activities in different ways. As an estimate, these events attracted over five millions of participants.

In 2024, there were nine art toy-related projects exhibited in venues of the West Kowloon Cultural District and the Leisure and Cultural Services Department. Their average exhibition period was about 17 days. In addition, there were lots of activities relating to the theme of art toy held in different government and private venues (such as shopping malls).

(5) The Government has been promoting the development of the trading and commercialisation of local IPs, including various measures related to CCI.

In strengthening IP protection, the copyright system is an essential component of the IP regime, offering protection for original works including those in the literary and artistic fields, and is crucial to the development of the local creative industries and a knowledge-based economy. The Copyright (Amendment) Ordinance 2022 came into effect in May 2023 to enhance copyright protection in the digital environment. The IPD is also conducting a comprehensive review of the local registered design system and plans to launch a public consultation within this year to ensure that the system remains up-to-date, aligns with current international standards, and meets the needs of Hong Kong’s future economic development. Besides, the CCIDA is actively supporting cultural IP projects (including those related to art toy mentioned above) through the CSI, and driving applicants to make applications for IP protection for their cultural and creative products, formulate IP agreements and manage IP portfolios, etc. so as to assist creators in exploring business opportunities.

In enhancing capacity building, the IPD has in recent years provided more comprehensive and in-depth IP training courses and practical workshops for practitioners across various sectors, including those in the cultural and creative industries, with a target to benefit 5 000 practitioners across different industries within the current term of the Government. Besides, in collaboration with the Law Society of Hong Kong, the IPD has been providing free IP consultation services for small and medium enterprises through practising lawyers on a pro bono basis.

On promotion effort, the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) continues to enrich large-scale activities such as the Hong Kong International Film and TV Market, the Hong Kong International Licensing Show and the Hong Kong Book Fair in order to support local original works to exploit the Mainland and international markets. The CCIDA has also funded the HKTDC to enhance the Asia IP Exchange portal, adding a database for arts, cultural and creative IPs to facilitate potential buyers in searching for relevant information, and introducing more elements of market transaction, such as business matching events, market information and professional service packages on IP trading to foster cross-sectoral collaboration. The CCIDA will facilitate more registration of local and non-local cultural and creative products on the Asia IP Exchange portal to promote the transactions of cultural IPs.

MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

June 25, 2025
MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: LCQ14: Public toilet projects in Hong Kong

Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

LCQ14: Public toilet projects in Hong Kong
Question:

     It has been learnt that, in recent years, the Government has been actively promoting construction of public toilets (including refurbishment or facelifting) projects in Hong Kong, with the aim of improving the quality of public sanitary facilities. According to the information provided by the Government in reply to a question raised by a Member of this Council on the Estimates of Expenditure for the financial year 2025-2026, the Enhanced Public Toilet Refurbishment Programme for that financial year covers 110 public toilets and involves a total project estimate of about $460 million. According to the Government’s paper submitted to the Panel on Development of this Council regarding funding for the Capital Works Reserve Fund for 2025-2026, the total budget for the four public toilet projects in Lei Yue Mun (Ling Nam Sun Tsuen) in Kwun Tong, Ha Ma Tseuk Leng in North District, Ha Tsuen Shi Vegetable Market Office in Yuen Long, and Fraser Village in Yuen Long, is as high as about $87 million. In particular, the reprovisioning of Lei Yue Mun (Ling Nam San Tsuen) public toilet in Kwun Tong has been budgeted at about $38 million. In this connection, will the Government inform this Council:

(1) of the reasons why the project estimates of the above four public toilets are higher than those of public toilets in general;

(2) of the overall planning for public toilet projects in Hong Kong; the factors considered by the authorities when deciding to commence the public toilet projects (including the requirements for male-to-female toilet compartment ratio, site selection criteria, pedestrian flow density and district distribution ratios);

(3) it has been learnt that at the end of 2023, the proportion of female population in Hong Kong is about 54.5 per cent, which is nine per cent higher than the male population, but the existing supply of female toilets often falls short of demand, resulting in females often having to wait for a long time for their turn to use them, whether the authorities will consider adjusting the male-to-female toilet compartment ratio and increasing the number of female toilet compartments in planning for public toilet projects; if so, of the details; if not, the reasons for that;

(4) whether the authorities have compiled statistics and assessed the demand for the use of public toilets, the actual utilisation rates and the public satisfaction levels, etc, at various tourist attractions and border control points; if it has compiled such statistics, of the details;

(5) of the distribution of the proportions of the various expenditures (e.g. design, salaries of works personnel and construction costs) in the project estimates for all public toilet projects in Hong Kong at present; and

(6) whether the authorities have a dedicated department responsible for monitoring and managing the progress of public toilet projects, as well as providing temporary public toilet services while the works are in progress; if so, whether they will announce the details of the progress of the relevant works in a timely manner?

Reply:

President,

     Government departments including the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department (FEHD), the Leisure and Cultural Services Department (LCSD), the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) and the Home Affairs Department, respectively plan and manage toilets facilities provided for public use (public toilet) under their purview. The Architectural Services Department (ArchSD) carries out the design, construction and refurbishment of public toilets in accordance with the public service standards for public toilets as specified by the client departments.

     Having consulted the Development Bureau (DEVB), the Culture, Sports and Tourism Bureau, the Home and Youth Affairs Bureau and the Security Bureau, our reply to the question raised by the Hon Maggie Chan is as follows:

(1) When the ArchSD designs and constructs new public toilets, as well as reprovisions and refurbishes existing public toilets, it will devise project details by taking into account factors including relevant departments’ requirements, design standards of existing public toilets, conditions of facilities, utilisation rates, legal requirements, sewage facilities and provision of barrier-free facilities; and ensures the project complies with the “no-frills” principle. In compiling the project estimates, the ArchSD will make reference to the costs of projects of similar scale in the past and the prevailing returned tender prices; with provisions for consultants’ fees and contingencies.

     Regarding the four public toilet works project mentioned in the question, the ArchSD stated that the construction floor area of the Reprovisioning of Lei Yue Mun (Ling Nam Sun Tsuen) Public Toilet is the largest among projects on public toilets in recent years. Besides, given that public toilet is highly utilised and locates at a tourist spot, the design of the reprovisioning works focused on enhancing the quality of the facilities and the user experience of the tourists, including the provision of additional universal toilets, the adoption of a people-oriented design with the provision of more spacious interior than other common public toilets, and the implementation of smart toilet system to enhance hygiene and management. In addition, the congested underground pipelines and high groundwater level in the vicinity have made the construction much more complex and hence increased the costs. The ArchSD has adopted a number of design enhancement and works solutions to minimise construction costs and risks as far as practicable, such as relocating the underground equipment to above ground to reduce the extent of excavation.

     As for the proposed Improvement to Ha Ma Tseuk Leng Public Toilet in North District, Improvement to Ha Tsuen Shi Vegetable Market Office Public Toilet in Yuen Long and Improvement to Fraser Village Public Toilet in Yuen Long, given they are located in rural areas with no public drainage system in the proximity and lack of proper roads for delivery of construction materials, the project costs are expected to be higher. The ArchSD is still reviewing the estimates of these three proposed projects, and will evaluate their cost effectiveness, endeavours to seek feasible options to lower construction cost.

(2) When planning for the provision of public toilets, the Government will consider various factors, including the number of existing nearby public toilets (including public toilets managed by government departments and public toilet facilities in private premises like shopping arcades), utilisation rates, land requirements, feasibility (for example water and electricity supply, and sewage treatment, etc), as well as the opinions and requests of nearby residents, local community and District Councils.

(3) Building (Standards of Sanitary Fitments, Plumbing, Drainage Works and Latrines) Regulations (Cap. 123I) provides for the statutory standard for ratio of male to female (1:1.5) in the provision of sanitary fitments in newly introduced public places (for example sports stadia, shopping arcades and department stores) in private buildings.

     As for public toilets managed by government departments, relevant departments will consider actual conditions of individual public toilets, including the location and size of the public toilet, as well as users’ needs and stakeholders’ views, and increases the female ratio of sanitary fitments when needed.

(4) Public toilets at tourists attractions and boundary control points (BCPs) are individually or jointly managed by different government departments (including the FEHD, the LCSD, the AFCD, the Government Property Agency, and departments relevant to the BCPs), or delegated third parties (for example the MTR Corporation Limited). Government departments respectively monitors the usage of public toilets under their management, and will suitably follow up as necessary, including adjusting the inspection and cleaning frequencies. Departments have not maintained relevant statistics.

(5) The DEVB stated that the scope of works, site location, site constraints and construction methods vary for each public toilet improvement, refurbishment, enhancement or reprovisioning project. The design and construction of each project will be appropriately adjusted to suit its unique characteristics. As such, construction cost and proportion of expenses such as labour, machinery, materials and consultancy fees, vary. The ArchSD generally will reserve approximately 10 per cent of the cost in the budget of each project as contingency, so to address needs for unforeseen adjustments.

(6) When the ArchSD constructs, refurbishes or enhances public toilets for government departments, it carries out regular inspections, manages the progress of projects, and also provides temporary toilet facilities for public toilets affected by the construction works having considered relevant departments’ requirements.
Issued at HKT 12:45

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CategoriesMIL-OSI

MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

June 25, 2025
MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: LCQ1: Eradicating youth consumption of “space oil drug”

Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

LCQ1: Eradicating youth consumption of “space oil drug”
Question:

The Government statistics show that 128 young people aged under 21 were reported to have consumed “space oil drug” in the first quarter of this year, accounting for over 67 per cent of all reported cases. The youngest among them was just 12 years old. In this connection, will the Government inform this Council:

(1) of the respective numbers of cases of young people possessing and consuming “space oil drug” received by the authorities in the past three years; the specific measures in place to assist them in drug treatment and rehabilitation, and the total number of young people who have quit “space oil drug” with such assistance to date;

(2) whether it will establish a regular mechanism for primary and secondary schools in Hong Kong to handle cases of young people consuming “space oil drug”, while strengthening training for frontline personnel, including teachers and social workers, in order to enhance their ability to identify, handle, and prevent cases of students consuming “space oil drug”; and

(3) given that the Government launched the Healthy School Programme some years ago to establish a healthy and drug-free culture in schools by organising personal growth activities and voluntary school drug testing, whether the authorities will step up the promotion of this programme in primary and secondary schools in Hong Kong, so that teachers and social workers can have opportunities to identify those young people who consume “space oil drug” at an early stage and provide them with immediate and appropriate assistance?

Reply:

President,

The Government attaches great importance to combating the emerging “space oil drug” problem. A number of targeted measures have been launched on multiple fronts to curb the use of “space oil drug”, which often illegally contains the anesthetic etomidate. Among these measures, we have already listed etomidate and its three analogues as dangerous drugs through legislation, and have recently proposed listing other analogues as dangerous drugs as well. Since the listing of etomidate as a dangerous drug on February 14, 2025, law enforcement agencies (LEAs) have successfully stopped the supply of more than 220 000 drug-filled cartridges by the end of last month with a total of 405 persons arrested. Among those arrested, 153 were involved in trafficking dangerous drugs, accounting for nearly 40 per cent of the arrests. Apart from legislation and law enforcement, the Government has also launched a number of publicity programmes to educate the public to stay away from “space oil drug” and raise awareness among young people of its serious harm.

In consultation with the Education Bureau (EDB), replies to each of the Member’s questions are as follows:

(1) The “space oil drug” has been gradually on the rise since 2023. From 2023 to May 31, 2025, the LEAs arrested a total of 566 persons for unlawful possession of etomidate, and among them, 134 persons or about 20 per cent were young people aged below 21. Regarding the number of abusers, data from the Central Registry of Drug Abuse show that from 2023 to May 31, 2025, there were 493 recorded “space oil drug” abusers, of whom 356 persons, or about 70 per cent, were young people aged below 21. These young people are being followed up by relevant drug treatment institutions or outreaching social work teams with a view to helping them to quit drugs. Indeed, drug treatment and rehabilitation services are an integral part of the Government’s anti-drug strategy. For young people addicted to “space oil drug”, drug treatment and rehabilitation agencies (e.g. Counselling Centres for Psychotropic Substance Abusers (CCPSAs)) provide education programmes, vocational training, and counselling on careers and studies, tailored to their personal growth stages, learning needs and interests. Anti-drug workers also provide young people with essential emotional support and mental health counselling.

(2) Schools are key partners in the Government’s anti-drug efforts. The Narcotics Division (ND) of the Security Bureau (SB), in collaboration with the EDB, has established a regular mechanism for all primary and secondary schools in Hong Kong to handle drug-related incidents, including cases involving the use of “space oil drug”. The EDB has also issued guidelines to schools in this regard. To assist schools in handling such cases, the ND of the SB has been working with non-governmental organisations to provide anti-drug professional training for frontline staff, including teachers and social workers, to enhance their capacity in identifying, handling and preventing “space oil drug” abuse cases among students.

(3) After years of implementation, the Healthy School Programme spearheaded by the ND has been proven capable of strengthening students’ resolve to stay away from drugs, thereby fostering an anti-drug culture in schools. In light of the latest drug scene, the ND plans to include etomidate testing in its voluntary school drug testing, targeting its introduction within the next school year. The ND has also required schools to incorporate knowledge on the prevention of “space oil drug” into the activities organised under the Programme, including understanding the harm of “space oil drug”, the serious consequences of committing relevant offences, and the skills to refuse “space oil drug”. While promoting the Healthy School Programme, the ND is also implementing the Beat Drugs with Sports Programme to help young people stay away from “space oil drug” and other drugs through sports activities. About 60 per cent of all secondary schools in Hong Kong have participated in these two anti-drug programmes.

Apart from the Healthy School Programme and the Beat Drugs with Sports Programme just mentioned, the ND has been promoting a healthy and drug‑free school culture through enhanced cross‑disciplinary and cross‑sectoral collaboration with various anti-drug service units and welfare service units. This collaboration provides teachers and social workers with opportunities to identify young people who have taken “space oil drug” at an early stage, and offer timely and appropriate assistance. In this regard, the ND arranges for the CCPSAs to reach out to schools and organise anti-drug school talks, including providing training for teachers and social workers, and educating students about the harm of “space oil drug”. Since 2024, over 170 schools with a total of 38 000 students, teachers and social workers have participated in these talks. The Hong Kong Jockey Club Drug InfoCentre will also organise a new round of interactive activities in July 2025 for candidates of the Hong Kong Diploma of Secondary Education Examination and senior secondary school students. These activities aim to provide students with a stress-relieving occasion and reinforce their resistance against “space oil drug”. The ND also conducts free drama tours for schools to educate upper primary students in an interactive manner on the harm of “space oil drug”. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong Police Force has staged a new play, “Interactive Anti-Drug Theatre – A Space Study Adventure”, to safeguard schools from the emerging “space oil drug”. Finally, on parental education, the ND works closely with the Committee on Home-School Co-operation and the Federations of Parent-Teacher Associations in various districts to provide parents and young people with timely and appropriate assistance related to “space oil drug”.

President, the Government has taken various measures to curb “space oil drug”. We have strategies in place to address the situation, ranging from legislation and law enforcement to treatment and rehabilitation. We will humbly listen to the views of the community, adjust our strategies as situation changes, and proactively adopt innovative and targeted approaches to combat drug harm together with the public.

Thank you, President.
Issued at HKT 14:35

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CategoriesMIL-OSI

MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

June 25, 2025
MIL-OSI United Kingdom: expert reaction to study suggesting adjuvants in certain vaccines may be one reason for their association with a reduction in dementia risk

Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

June 25, 2025

A study published in NPJ Vaccines looks at adjuvants in vaccines and their association with a lower risk of dementia.

Dr Julia Dudley, Head of Research at Alzheimer’s Research UK, said:

“Dementia is not an inevitable part of ageing. Identifying ways to reduce dementia risk is a priority for research, and vaccination offers an intriguing area of exploration. There have been an increasing number of studies suggesting a link between people who receive certain vaccinations, like the Shingrix vaccine, and a decreased risk of dementia. This study offers a potentially different perspective on what might be linked to this finding.

“In this latest large US-based observational study, researchers are proposing that it might be the adjuvant that is providing a protective effect, rather than the disease the vaccine is seeking to protect against. This study looked at dementia diagnoses in people who had received vaccines with the AS01 adjuvant and those who had a flu vaccine, which doesn’t contain this component.

“An adjuvant is a substance in the vaccine used to create a boosted immune response, designed to give more effective protection upon exposure to the virus.AS01 is in the shingles vaccine Shingrix, and Arexvy, the vaccine to protect against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

“They found people who had Shingrix, Arexvy or both of these vaccines were less likely to get a dementia diagnosis within 18 months. They found no difference between the Shingrix or Arexvy in terms of reducing dementia risk.

“One of the strengths of the study is that it adjusted for factors that could influence risk, such as underlying health conditions and some lifestyle and environmental factors. However, as the study is observational and examined past health data, the researchers cannot conclude how the Shingrix and Arexvy vaccines may protect against dementia. We also cannot rule out that the link between vaccine and dementia risk is due to other factors not captured in this study, such as social and lifestyle factors.

“One of the limitations highlighted by the authors was around people not having a dementia diagnosis when they could be living with the condition, which could skew the findings. We do not know if the adjuvant is reducing the risk of dementia or delaying its onset. The follow-up period was only 18 months, so more research is needed to determine the potential long-term effects of the vaccines.

“As we understand more about the biological mechanisms behind any protective effects seen with vaccines, we may be able to investigate new treatment approaches.”

Prof Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics, Open University, said:

“This is an interesting, worthwhile and statistically competent piece of work, but a lot more research needs to be done to make good sense of its possible implications for health care. In fact it’s a good example of how scientific and medical knowledge has to be built up through a series of studies, not just a single piece of work.

“Previous research has provided pretty convincing evidence that vaccination against shingles, in older people, can reduce dementia risk. A recent study (published 2024), by the same research team responsible for the new study, found that the reduction in dementia risk is greater in people who had the shingles vaccine now in most widespread use, including in the UK (it’s called Shingrix), than with the previous vaccine (Zostavax).

“However, that study could not provide direct evidence on the reason for the risk difference between the two shingles vaccines. One possibility is that having shingles might increase dementia risk, and that the new vaccine provides better protection against shingles than the old one did, so reducing dementia risk. Another is that there’s some component in the new vaccine that reduces dementia risk. Or it could be some combination of these possibilities.

“The new Shingrix vaccine differs from the old Zostavax vaccine in several ways, but one difference is Shingrix vaccine contain a substance called AS01, while Zostavax does not. Some previous research has indicated that it’s possible that AS01 somehow provides in itself a reduction in dementia risk. AS01 is not the ingredient of the vaccine that directly incites the immune system to develop immunity against shingles. Instead it is an adjuvant – a substance that is intended to help the immune system to respond to the vaccination.

“AS01 is also used as an adjuvant in another vaccination offered to older people; the vaccination against the respiratory virus infection RSV (respiratory syncytial virus), which is now recommended for people in the UK aged 75-79. One of the vaccines in use against RSV also contains AS01. (There’s another available vaccine that does not contain it.) So the research team responsible for the new study used data from a large set of American electronic health records, to compare dementia risk over a period of 18 months after vaccination for older people who had had various different vaccinations containing AS01 (just the RSV vaccine, just the shingles vaccine, or both). These people were compared with older people who had had a flu vaccine, not containing AS01.

“The researchers found that those who had had either of the two AS01-containing vaccines (against RSV or shingles) had a lower risk of being diagnosed with dementia in the 18 months after vaccination than those who had had the flu vaccine. This pattern of lower risk showed up in people who had had just one of the AS01 vaccines, or both, though there were some relatively small (and statistically uncertain) differences in the average size of the risk reduction, compared to the flu vaccine, for different groups.

“What’s still not known from this study is exactly why these risk differences occur. The researchers mention that, in some way, they could occur because having either RSV or shingles might in itself increase dementia risk, so that having a vaccine that makes it less likely to have one or both of those diseases might reduce dementia risk. Or it could be because of some protective effect of the AS01 adjuvant, which is in these vaccines but not in the flu vaccine. (Or some combination of these possible effects.)

“The researchers give some arguments why they feel AS01 itself is likely to play a protective role against dementia. I don’t have expertise in virology so can’t comment directly on those arguments. But it’s at least a possibility, from all the existing evidence, that AS01 could have a protective effect. This study also doesn’t provide direct evidence on how AS01 might work to reduce dementia risk, but the researchers give some suggestions based on other studies as to what could be happening. Again I can’t comment on those.

“It’s because of this inevitable lack of knowledge about exactly how AS01 might be involved in reducing dementia risk that the researchers are asking for more studies, some of them using other research methods, to find out more. I agree with this recommendation, because in my view the results of this study provide a clear justification for looking further. But we’re not yet anywhere near the stage of using the results of the new study to change clinical practice. Also, the new study can’t make the timescale of risk reduction very clear, because the follow-up period to look for dementia diagnoses was relatively short at 18 months.

“This was an observational study – the people weren’t assigned at random to receive a particular pattern of vaccinations, but just did what they would have done anyway in consultation with health professionals. In any observational study, there can be issues about what is causing what. The basic problem is that people who receive different vaccinations will also differ in terms of many other factors – age, sex, what diseases they have previously had or still have, and many more. Some of these factors may be potential confounders, as they are called – that is, there’s a possibility that they are the cause of differences in dementia risk, and not the actual vaccinations at all.

“The researchers did a very thorough job of allowing for potential confounders, by doing something called propensity score matching. This involves setting up a statistical model that predicts people’s chances of having a dementia outcome, regardless of what vaccines they had had, and then matching people who (for example) had had the RSV vaccine but not the shingles vaccine with people who had had the flu vaccine. In this research the statistical model for the matching involves a very wide range of potential confounders. Then direct comparisons are based on these matched pairs of people. That means one can get a lot closer to comparing like with like groups, who don’t differ (on average) in terms of potential confounding factors.

“The process can’t entirely avoid the possibility that there are confounding factors that couldn’t be dealt with in this way, and that’s why the research paper says clearly that unmeasured confounding can’t be entirely ruled out. So there has to remain doubt about whether the risk differences are caused by the different vaccines. This is in addition to the inevitable doubts about which aspects of the vaccines (AS01 or something else as well) might be causes of the risk differences – if indeed it’s the vaccines that do turn out to cause the differences. These are yet more reasons why this research is nowhere near being the last word.”

Prof Sir Andrew Pollard FMedSci, Ashall Professor of Paediatric Infection and Immunity and Director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, University of Oxford, said:

“There are now a number of studies which have shown an association between shingles vaccination in older adults and a reduced rate of dementia in the vaccinated population. The fact that two different vaccine platforms (both live attenuated shingles vaccines and the adjuvanted shingles subcomponent vaccine) saw similar associations supported the idea that the mechanism was as a result of vaccine-prevention of reactivation of the usually dormant shingles virus in the brain. Another virus from the same family, herpes simplex virus (the cold sore virus) has also been associated with dementia raising the possibility that both of these viruses (shingles and herpes simplex) could cause infection, possibly silently and recurrently, in the brain that led eventually to dementia. Unfortunately, there is no licensed vaccine for herpes simplex at this time. However, this latest study published in npj vaccines shows that another vaccine, against the completely unrelated respiratory virus, RSV, is also associated with a reduced rate of dementia. The authors argue that this is because of a non-specific effect of these vaccines on the immune system which generates an environment in our bodies which is somehow protective against dementia, though further studies are needed to confirm this. Such a mechanism could account for the effects driven by both shingles and RSV vaccines. The various studies of the impact of vaccination on dementia are all observational studies which could have a risk of bias, as it can be challenging to adequately control for differences between those who seek vaccination and those who don’t, but the consistent finding across multiple studies makes the observation more convincing. It is premature to be too certain about the mechanism by which vaccines might reduce dementia risk, but these observations provide further incentive for those eligible to turn up for their scheduled vaccination visits to prevent the unpleasant and potentially serious and life-threatening infections for which they were designed, but with the added possible benefit of a longer dementia-free life-span. What’s not to like?”

‘Lower risk of dementia with AS01- adjuvanted vaccination against shingles and respiratory syncytial virus infections’ by Maxime Taquet et al. was published in npj vaccines at 10:00 UK time Wednesday June 25th 2025.

DOI: 10.1038/s41541-025-01172-3

Declared interests

Prof Kevin McConway: No conflicts.

For all other experts, no reply to our request for DOIs was received.

MIL OSI United Kingdom –

June 25, 2025
MIL-OSI United Kingdom: York has the lowest rate of pregnant women smoking in Yorkshire and the Humber

Source: City of York

York has the lowest rate of pregnant women smoking in Yorkshire and the Humber at the time of delivery, new figures have revealed.

According to new data published by NHS England Statistics on Women’s Smoking Status at Time of Delivery: Data tables – NHS England Digital only 4.6 per cent (65 women) smoked in York, at the time of their delivery. This shows a significant drop, when compared to figures in 2020, which were 10.4 per cent (167 women).

Many women have been supported to help quit for good through help from the Health Trainers.

Cllr Lucy Steels- Walshaw, Executive Member for Health, Wellbeing and Adult Social Care at City of York Council, said “Stopping smoking during pregnancy is a positive step you can take for the health of you and your baby.

“Stopping smoking can be challenging, but you do not have to face this alone. The council’s health trainers can offer support tailored to your needs and look at techniques and strategies to keep you motivated on your journey to becoming smoke free”.

The Health Trainers offer an incentive scheme of £170 in shopping vouchers which are offered, if they continue to quit during their pregnancy and quit for good.

Lucy Evans, from Acomb, gave birth at full term to a 7lb 14oz healthy baby girl, Violet, 12 weeks ago. She stopped smoking a week after her first health trainer appointment early in her pregnancy, and received free nicotine gum and patches as well as one-to-one support sessions.

She has just received her final voucher this week, which she plans to spend on clothes for Violet and a treat for herself.

She said: “I wanted to quit to make sure my baby was healthy and would definitely recommend this scheme, you get so much support and help and it makes you want to quit even more.

“I feel a lot healthier, I’m not coughing as much and am breathing better, and I feel like I can handle stress a lot better as I’m not relying on smoking.”

The service offers personalised, individual support and advice, and signing up is really simple.

Visit York Health Trainers and complete the online referral form, call 01904 553377 or email cychealthtrainers@york.gov.uk

Across the region, the Smoking at Time of Delivery (SATOD) data shows that 7.5 per cent (3,901) of pregnant women across Yorkshire and the Humber were recorded as smoking in 2024/25.

This is 1.8 per cent lower than the previous year, when maternal smoking rates were 9.3 per cent across the region. This equates to 642 fewer women smoking compared to last year.

This is the lowest rate of smoking during pregnancy recorded in Yorkshire and the Humber since data began to be collected. This also reflects improvement across England as a whole, where SATOD rates fell to 6.1 per cent from 7.4 per cent last year.

Smoking during pregnancy significantly increases the risk of harm to both mother and baby. It increases the risk of stillbirth, miscarriage, and sudden infant death. Children born to parents who smoke are also more likely to experience respiratory illness, learning difficulties, and diabetes, and are more likely to grow up to be smokers when compared to children born into smoke-free households.

As well as the health harms caused by smoking during pregnancy, it also adds to the cost of living and pushes families further into poverty. The average smoker spends £3,000 per year on tobacco, with younger women from the most deprived areas being the most likely to smoke and be exposed to second-hand smoke during pregnancy.

MIL OSI United Kingdom –

June 25, 2025
MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Edinburgh’s economy outperforms London’s

Source: Scotland – City of Edinburgh

Council Leader Jane Meagher writes in the Evening News today to welcome positive news for Edinburgh’s economy.

Edinburgh has long been Scotland’s economic powerhouse and we’re now ahead of London for the first time.

The value of goods and services produced here in Edinburgh per person has now surpassed London’s. That’s according to economic data recently published by the Office for National Statistics.

The figures reveal gross domestic product per head of £69,809 in Edinburgh, compared to £69,077 in London. This steady growth of Edinburgh’s economy to outperform that of London’s is no small feat. Twenty-five years ago, this same data put London 19% ahead of Edinburgh, highlighting just how well we perform as a city.

This is good news for our local businesses, and it shows that Edinburgh is an environment in which small, local enterprises can thrive. It also demonstrates the confidence global investors have in Edinburgh. In the last year alone, we’ve welcomed 27 instances of foreign direct investment, from shops like Søstrene Grene and MINISO to major renewable energy consultants PSC.

This is impressive and is in part thanks to the city’s resilient business community and strong employment opportunities. The economy in the city has been driven forward by a combination of relying on established sectors such as, financial services and our universities, as well as embracing new and emerging opportunities in areas such as life sciences and technology.

Linked to this, we’ve seen the UK Chancellor commit up to £750 million for the city and the region for a next generation ‘Exascale super-computer’ at the University of Edinburgh. This will be a national asset supporting jobs and investment and reaffirms the region’s role as an economic powerhouse. This is in keeping with the eight growth-driving sectors identified in the new Industrial Strategy, placing Edinburgh and the region in a strong position to continue to receive investment and grow the local economy.

On top of this, £410 million will be shared across the devolved nations for a Local Innovation Partnership Fund and it makes great sense for our City Region to lead on this in Scotland. From artificial intelligence to data and robotics, this money could unlock a huge amount of investment, building on the successful projects we’ve already delivered, including the National Robotarium, the Usher Institute and Easter Bush which is now the global location of ‘Agritech’ excellence.

Given Edinburgh’s longstanding innovation capabilities it is fantastic that we will be able to reap the associated economic, social and environmental benefits. That said, our challenge is to manage Edinburgh’s success and growth, and ensure it is fair and sustainable. To keep thriving, we need to manage the pressures placed on our housing, environment and our residents. This is the fastest growing city in Scotland, with the population expected to increase by 60,000 over the next 20 years and over four million visitors every year.

Everyone should be able to benefit from Edinburgh’s continued economic success. We are clearly contributing more than our share to the Scottish and UK economies and both governments should continue to take note.

MIL OSI United Kingdom –

June 25, 2025
MIL-Evening Report: Election flows reveal nearly 90% of Greens preferenced Labor ahead of Coalition

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

Minor party preference flows for the federal election have been released, with Labor winning Greens preferences by 88.2–11.8, while the Coalition won One Nation preferences by 74.5–24.5. I also cover a SA state poll that gave Labor a massive 67–33 lead.

The Australian Electoral Commission’s results for the May 3 federal election now show how minor parties’ preferences flowed between Labor and the Coalition. The Greens won 12.2% of the national primary vote, and their preferences favoured Labor over the Coalition by 88.2–11.8. That’s a 2.5% preference flow gain for Labor since the 2022 election.

One Nation had 6.4% of primary votes. Their preferences favoured the Coalition over Labor by 74.5–25.5, a 10.2% preference flow gain for the Coalition. Independents made up 7.3% of primary votes, and their preferences favoured Labor by 67.2–32.8, a 3.4% gain for Labor.

Including Trumpet of Patriots (1.9% of primary votes) with others, others made up 7.7% of primary votes and their preferences favoured the Coalition by 57.3–42.7, a 0.6% gain for the Coalition since 2022 if United Australia Party (4.1% in 2022) is included with others then.

The AEC formally declared the poll by returning the writs on June 12. Results can be legally challenged within 40 days of this declaration, so by July 22.

In Bradfield, Teal Nicolette Boele only won by 26 votes against the Liberals, and this result could be challenged.

As the AEC does not want to disturb the ballot papers until any challenge is resolved by the courts, it is for now using an estimated two-party result in Bradfield (55.0–45.0 to the Liberals against Labor). Analyst Ben Raue believes this estimate is understating Labor in Bradfield by 4.4%.

If Raue is right, the current national two-party vote (55.22–44.78 to Labor) is very slightly understating Labor.

While One Nation’s preference shift helped the Coalition, there were compensatory shifts to Labor from Greens and independent voters. The combined primary vote for One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots was down 0.8% from 2022 to 8.3%, while independents were up 2.0%.

Applying 2022 election flows to primary votes at this election only overstates Labor by 0.1% compared to their actual two-party vote.

In my poll review article on June 5, I said respondent allocated preferences in final polls did not show a large gap in the Coalition’s favour from using 2022 election flows that had occurred in polls earlier in the year.

It’s likely that Labor’s share of preferences from Greens and Teal-type independents rose close to the election. People who voted for these candidates may have been disappointed with Labor’s environmental record, but both Peter Dutton and Donald Trump helped Labor with these people.

In the last term, the Greens were economically left-wing as well as pro-environment. Voters who supported the Greens because of their economic agenda are probably less likely to prefer the Coalition to Labor than environmental voters.

The Poll Bludger has a graph that shows that, in federal elections since 2004, Labor’s share of Greens preferences was at a record high this election, but their share of One Nation preferences was at a record low.

Weak Labor flows to Boele

In Bradfield, Labor preferences favoured Boele by 68.6–31.4 against the Liberals.
There were 16 other seats where Labor preferences were distributed between the Coalition and a non-Coalition candidate. The Labor flow to Boele was the second weakest in such seats. This weak flow almost cost Boele Bradfield.

The only seat that had a weaker Labor preference flow to a non-Coalition candidate was Maranoa, where the non-Coalition candidate was One Nation. Labor preferences in Maranoa split 57.9–42.1 to the Liberal National Party against One Nation. In 13 of the 17 seats, Labor preferences flowed at over 75% rates to the non-Coalition candidate.

In early April, the ABC reported Boele had made a crude sexual remark to a 19-year-old employee at a hair salon after receiving a haircut and was banned from that salon. This may explain the weaker preference flow from Labor voters.

Weak Greens flows to Teals in Teal vs Labor contests

There were three seats where the final two were Labor and a Teal independent: Bean, Franklin and Fremantle. In Bean and Fremantle, the Liberals recommended preferences to the Teal on their how to vote material, but not in Franklin.

Labor held all three seats, but only by 50.3–49.7 in Bean and 50.7–49.3 in Fremantle. Labor won much more easily in Franklin, by 57.8–42.2, where they benefited from Liberal how to vote cards.

In Bean, Greens preferences only favoured Teal Jessie Price by 50.6–49.4 over Labor, while Liberal preferences favoured her by 80.0–20.0. In Fremantle, Greens preferences favoured Teal Kate Hulett by 52.9–47.1, while Liberal preferences favoured her by 76.5–23.5. In Franklin, Greens preferences favoured Teal Peter George by 53.8–46.2.

In Bean and Fremantle, had Greens preferences been stronger for the Teal, Labor would have lost to a more pro-environment candidate. Perhaps Labor benefited on Greens preferences owing to the Greens’ more economic left-wing agenda.

And a national Morgan poll, conducted June 2–22 from a sample of 3,957, gave Labor a 58–42 lead, unchanged from the previous Morgan poll in May. Primary votes were 37.5% Labor (up 0.5), 31% Coalition (steady), 12% Greens (up 0.5), 6% One Nation (steady) and 13.5% for all Others (down one).

By 43–41.5, voters thought the country was headed in the right direction, the first time right direction has led since February 2023. The overall net +1.5 rating is +48 with Labor voters, +11.5 with Greens, -43 with Coalition voters, -80.5 with One Nation voters and -17.5 with all Others.

Labor holds massive lead in SA

The next South Australian state election will be held in March 2026. A YouGov poll for The Adelaide Advertiser, conducted May 15–28 from a sample of 903, gave Labor a massive 67–33 lead over the Liberals (54.6–45.4 to Labor at the March 2022 election). Primary votes were 48% Labor, 21% Liberals, 14% Greens, 7% One Nation, 8% independents and 2% others.

If the results at next March’s election reflect this poll, the Liberals would hold just two of the 47 lower house seats on a uniform swing. It would be easily their worst result in SA state history.

In Australian electoral history, there has only been one bigger landslide: when Western Australian Labor defeated the Liberals and Nationals by 69.7–30.3 at the March 2021 state election.

Socialist likely to be next New York City mayor

I covered today’s AEST New York City Democratic mayoral primary election for The Poll Bludger. While preferences won’t be tabulated until next Tuesday, the socialist Zohran Mamdani leads former New York governor Andrew Cuomo by 43.5–36.4 on primary votes, and is virtually certain to win. As the Democratic nominee, Mamdani is likely to win the November general election.

The article also covers Donald Trump’s ratings and polls in Israel.

Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Election flows reveal nearly 90% of Greens preferenced Labor ahead of Coalition – https://theconversation.com/election-flows-reveal-nearly-90-of-greens-preferenced-labor-ahead-of-coalition-259438

MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

June 25, 2025
MIL-Evening Report: Wild swings in the oil price make the Reserve Bank’s job harder

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Head, Canberra School of Government, University of Canberra

It looks, at least for now, as though tensions in the Middle East are easing somewhat. It appears much less likely Iran will try to close the
Strait of Hormuz, through which flows about a fifth of the world’s oil.

In response, oil prices have dropped to a two-week low below US$70 a barrel.

The economists at the Reserve Bank will be breathing a sigh of relief. A surge in oil prices would have injected more uncertainty into the global outlook. It would have made a decision on whether to cut interest rates in July harder.

Financial markets are betting on a rate cut at the July 7–8 meeting, but three of the four major bank economists are tipping August as more likely.

A tough global backdrop

The global economic environment is particularly challenging. Even before the recent increased tensions in the Middle East, the Trump tariff announcements (and withdrawals and re-impositions) were the major cause of the uncertainty around the domestic economy.

And there is a lot of “uncertainty”. Journalist Shane Wright noted the word “uncertain” appeared 134 times in the Reserve Bank’s latest Statement on Monetary Policy. Something similar has been noted in the United Kingdom.

There have been wild swings in the oil price in recent days. There was a surge on market fears Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz. The price slid when a ceasefire was announced. It rose again when the ceasefire was broken within hours. As the fragile truce appeared to hold, the price of oil has now gone back down.

Assumptions on the oil price

Forecasting where it will be in a day or week, let alone in a month or a year, is difficult. But economic forecasts underlying monetary policy decisions need to incorporate some view. The Reserve Bank generally assumes the oil price stays at its current level in the short term. It then uses the price in forward contracts as a basis for its forecasts beyond that.

A sustained jump in oil prices would have posed quite a dilemma for the Reserve Bank.

Generally a shock that adds to inflation would lead to the bank raising interest rates. In contrast, a shock that weakens economic activity would lead to the Bank lowering rates.

But a surge in oil prices would likely both increase inflation (by pushing up petrol prices) and weaken activity (by disrupting world trade and eroding consumers’ purchasing power).

If the oil price surge was expected to be short-lived, it is unlikely to get baked into inflationary expectations. The bank would then probably disregard it. But assessing the longevity of disruptions to the global oil market is not easy.

Monthly inflation drops to 2.1%

On Wednesday, the monthly consumer price index (CPI) fell to 2.1% in May from 2.4% in April. This is the equal lowest level since March 2001.

But the monthly reading will probably not impress RBA Governor Michele Bullock. In her most recent press conference, she commented that “we get four readings on inflation a year”, referring to the quarterly inflation reports. She was dismissive of what she termed “the monthly indicator which is very volatile”.

In taking its decisions, the bank often relies on an underlying inflation measure called the “trimmed mean”. This excludes items with the largest price movements up or down, so it removes petrol prices when they move by large amounts. This measure was 2.4% in the monthly report.

Petrol prices are also a significant contributor to the volatility of the monthly CPI.

Further cuts are likely

Both headline and underlying inflation are now within the central bank’s 2–3% target range. In its most recent outlook, the Reserve Bank forecast underlying inflation would remain in the target band, even if it made another two cuts in rates this year.

So a further interest rate cut remains likely. If it doesn’t cut in July, the bank could wait for the next quarterly inflation report on July 30, and then cut at the August 12 meeting.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers described the global economy as being “in a pretty dangerous place right now”.

“There’s a lot of volatility, unpredictability, uncertainty in the global economy,” he said. That is one thing that is not uncertain.

John Hawkins was formerly a senior economist at the Reserve Bank.

– ref. Wild swings in the oil price make the Reserve Bank’s job harder – https://theconversation.com/wild-swings-in-the-oil-price-make-the-reserve-banks-job-harder-259555

MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

June 25, 2025
MIL-Evening Report: Keith Rankin Analysis – Palestine Israel: Implementing a One-State Solution

Analysis by Keith Rankin.

Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

It’s time that the nations of the world (or at least the influential western nations) accept the reality that all the lands that constituted 1920-1948 Mandatory Palestine should be formally recognised as a single nation-state; ideally called Palestine Israel or Israel-Palestine, but more realistically called Israel.

In other words, the never-viable notion of a two-nation-state division of ‘Israel’ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eretz_Israel) should be dropped as a viable solution in favour of the promotion of a liberal bicultural (or multicultural) nation-state. The role model for change could be South Africa.

Jewish and Non-Jewish intellectuals (such as Hans Kohn, Shlomo Sand and Yanis Varoufakis) – on the political left – have been arguing for this ‘one-state-solution’ for over 100 years. It’s just that their voices have always been deamplified by those on the political centre and the political right. (On the centre, we think of people like Joe Biden, Keir Starmer, and their predecessors. On the right, we may consider former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir, a leader in the 1940s of the openly fascist Lehi, yet a moderate by today’s Israeli political standards.)

Shlomo Sand outlines the history of the arguments for a single ‘binational’ state in his 2024 book Israel-Palestine: Federation or Apartheid? His vision, which is not quite what I favour, emphasises binationalism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/binationalism), and looks towards these successful liberal examples of bi- or multi- nationalism: Canada, Belgium, Switzerland.

The better framing of this approach, I believe, is biculturalism; though even that is not problem-free, because it is an exclusive concept. What I think would work best for Palestine Israel is also the same as what would work best for Aotearoa New Zealand: multiculturalism with a bicultural (treaty) emphasis. (Ireland could have become something similar, as in Irish rugby; but it went down a failed two-state path, and experienced two substantial civil wars last century.) The ideal is for Palestine Israel to become a liberal democracy in which all people born within its borders become citizens with equal citizenship rights; a nation state which commits to both the domestic and international norms of liberal democracy.

(In a bicultural nation-state, the principal divider is religion; normally people’s religious loyalties are discrete, meaning that being, say, a Muslim or Jew or Christian is mutually exclusive. The word ‘national’ is increasingly used in the 21st century as it was in the 19th century; to refer to a ‘people’ or a ‘race’ rather than to relate to a territory defined by its borders and its sovereign institutions. Ethnicity – the better word is ‘ancestry – is not a discrete concept such as ‘religion’; individual people have multiple ancestries, and should not be required to identify as one over another.)

How can this be achieved?

First, we should note that the status quo in Eretz Israel is at least as unacceptable as Apartheid South Africa was to our world of mostly ‘internationally-civilised’ nation-states. (An internationally civilised state is one that accepts agreed norms in the ways that it relates to other nation states, meaning that it does not indulge in offensive hard-power geopolitics – such as ‘gunboat diplomacy’; and it practises cultural equality. Terrorism is understood as criminality. Such a state does not have to be a ‘democracy’ in the Westminster or American sense; but it should meet open liberal standards in the ways it treats its resident denizens – non-citizens – and it should subscribe to international treaties on matters such as climate sustainability and nuclear energy and election authenticity.)

Second, this desired outcome will not come about by force. The community of liberal nations should simply recognise Eretz Israel as a nation state, based ideally on the prior borders of Mandatory Palestine.

While there should be no demands, such a new nation-state would be risking discriminatory sanctions if it abuses liberal norms; in particular if it implements laws (including civil-marriage laws) that discriminate on the basis of sex, religion, or ancestry. Again, the obvious model is Apartheid South Africa, and the ways that South Africa was excluded from international sport so long as it implemented laws which discriminated on the basis of ethnicity. (Palestinians and many Israelis have Levantine ethnicity. Many Israelis have European, African or Asian co-ethnicity; that non-indigeneity should never be held against them. Nor should the indigeneity of the Palestinians.)

In recognising Eretz Israel as Israel-Palestine (or even just under the name ‘Israel’), a Levantine nation state, Israel’s nuclear status should be addressed and normalised. (Likewise, India and Pakistan should be pressured to join the ‘nuclear club’. One of the most problematic regional asymmetries at present is the advanced nuclear-status of Israel versus the embryonic nuclear status of Iran; Israel at present hides behind its non-membership of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons to make it seem that Iran is a bigger nuclear threat to the world than Israel is.)

Recognition of Eretz Israel as a sovereign nation state, under any name, should come with overt expectations of democracy, amnesty, truth, reconciliation, and press freedom. There should be no formal or informal mechanism of ‘settling scores’, no matter how reprehensible anyone’s past or present behaviour has been. Truth trumps vengeance cloaked as ‘accountability’.

Lebanon was an initially successful, but now largely failed, version of a similar attempt at creating a tolerant multicultural nation state in the Levant. Lebanon’s main problem was its belligerent southern neighbour. Israel-Palestine would not have Israel as a neighbour.

Abandon the naïve two-state solution.

There is no way a Palestinian nation-state can be viable. At the very best it could become like a mini-Pakistan or mini-Bangladesh; and even that would take decades. (And the last Israeli prime minister to formalise a two-state future – Yitzhak Rabin – was assassinated in 1995, having achieved a Nobel Peace Prize in 1994.) The two-state-solution agenda seems to be more about deescalating sufficiently for the Palestine issue to disappear from its media prominence; and not at all about ending a forever war which began in 1948.

The present forever war – now in its hottest phase – followed a brutal war for Israeli-Jewish independence and non-Jewish expulsion waged by fascist and non-fascist ‘non-state actors’ from 1939 to 1948 against the British ‘protectors’. That, in turn, followed a prior Palestinian insurrection against the British and the settlers from 1936-1939 (though overshadowed in the international media by the Spanish Civil War), which in its turn followed the 1929 Palestine riots. That’s 96 years of escalating forever violence.

In Summary

Recognise a new expanded state, with or without a new name, but with certain (unenforceable, but well-publicised) expectations. This expectation should be a multi-cultural Levantine sovereign state, embracing adherents of the three Abrahamic faiths (as well as people of other religions, or no religion, as citizens; people born in Israel or Palestine, and documented immigrants): Levantine Jews, Levantine Muslims, Levantine Christians, plus others. All Israelis. And all Palestinians.

*******

Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

June 25, 2025
MIL-Evening Report: Keith Rankin Analysis – Palestine Israel: Implementing a One-State Solution

Analysis by Keith Rankin.

Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

It’s time that the nations of the world (or at least the influential western nations) accept the reality that all the lands that constituted 1920-1948 Mandatory Palestine should be formally recognised as a single nation-state; ideally called Palestine Israel or Israel-Palestine, but more realistically called Israel.

In other words, the never-viable notion of a two-nation-state division of ‘Israel’ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eretz_Israel) should be dropped as a viable solution in favour of the promotion of a liberal bicultural (or multicultural) nation-state. The role model for change could be South Africa.

Jewish and Non-Jewish intellectuals (such as Hans Kohn, Shlomo Sand and Yanis Varoufakis) – on the political left – have been arguing for this ‘one-state-solution’ for over 100 years. It’s just that their voices have always been deamplified by those on the political centre and the political right. (On the centre, we think of people like Joe Biden, Keir Starmer, and their predecessors. On the right, we may consider former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir, a leader in the 1940s of the openly fascist Lehi, yet a moderate by today’s Israeli political standards.)

Shlomo Sand outlines the history of the arguments for a single ‘binational’ state in his 2024 book Israel-Palestine: Federation or Apartheid? His vision, which is not quite what I favour, emphasises binationalism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/binationalism), and looks towards these successful liberal examples of bi- or multi- nationalism: Canada, Belgium, Switzerland.

The better framing of this approach, I believe, is biculturalism; though even that is not problem-free, because it is an exclusive concept. What I think would work best for Palestine Israel is also the same as what would work best for Aotearoa New Zealand: multiculturalism with a bicultural (treaty) emphasis. (Ireland could have become something similar, as in Irish rugby; but it went down a failed two-state path, and experienced two substantial civil wars last century.) The ideal is for Palestine Israel to become a liberal democracy in which all people born within its borders become citizens with equal citizenship rights; a nation state which commits to both the domestic and international norms of liberal democracy.

(In a bicultural nation-state, the principal divider is religion; normally people’s religious loyalties are discrete, meaning that being, say, a Muslim or Jew or Christian is mutually exclusive. The word ‘national’ is increasingly used in the 21st century as it was in the 19th century; to refer to a ‘people’ or a ‘race’ rather than to relate to a territory defined by its borders and its sovereign institutions. Ethnicity – the better word is ‘ancestry – is not a discrete concept such as ‘religion’; individual people have multiple ancestries, and should not be required to identify as one over another.)

How can this be achieved?

First, we should note that the status quo in Eretz Israel is at least as unacceptable as Apartheid South Africa was to our world of mostly ‘internationally-civilised’ nation-states. (An internationally civilised state is one that accepts agreed norms in the ways that it relates to other nation states, meaning that it does not indulge in offensive hard-power geopolitics – such as ‘gunboat diplomacy’; and it practises cultural equality. Terrorism is understood as criminality. Such a state does not have to be a ‘democracy’ in the Westminster or American sense; but it should meet open liberal standards in the ways it treats its resident denizens – non-citizens – and it should subscribe to international treaties on matters such as climate sustainability and nuclear energy and election authenticity.)

Second, this desired outcome will not come about by force. The community of liberal nations should simply recognise Eretz Israel as a nation state, based ideally on the prior borders of Mandatory Palestine.

While there should be no demands, such a new nation-state would be risking discriminatory sanctions if it abuses liberal norms; in particular if it implements laws (including civil-marriage laws) that discriminate on the basis of sex, religion, or ancestry. Again, the obvious model is Apartheid South Africa, and the ways that South Africa was excluded from international sport so long as it implemented laws which discriminated on the basis of ethnicity. (Palestinians and many Israelis have Levantine ethnicity. Many Israelis have European, African or Asian co-ethnicity; that non-indigeneity should never be held against them. Nor should the indigeneity of the Palestinians.)

In recognising Eretz Israel as Israel-Palestine (or even just under the name ‘Israel’), a Levantine nation state, Israel’s nuclear status should be addressed and normalised. (Likewise, India and Pakistan should be pressured to join the ‘nuclear club’. One of the most problematic regional asymmetries at present is the advanced nuclear-status of Israel versus the embryonic nuclear status of Iran; Israel at present hides behind its non-membership of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons to make it seem that Iran is a bigger nuclear threat to the world than Israel is.)

Recognition of Eretz Israel as a sovereign nation state, under any name, should come with overt expectations of democracy, amnesty, truth, reconciliation, and press freedom. There should be no formal or informal mechanism of ‘settling scores’, no matter how reprehensible anyone’s past or present behaviour has been. Truth trumps vengeance cloaked as ‘accountability’.

Lebanon was an initially successful, but now largely failed, version of a similar attempt at creating a tolerant multicultural nation state in the Levant. Lebanon’s main problem was its belligerent southern neighbour. Israel-Palestine would not have Israel as a neighbour.

Abandon the naïve two-state solution.

There is no way a Palestinian nation-state can be viable. At the very best it could become like a mini-Pakistan or mini-Bangladesh; and even that would take decades. (And the last Israeli prime minister to formalise a two-state future – Yitzhak Rabin – was assassinated in 1995, having achieved a Nobel Peace Prize in 1994.) The two-state-solution agenda seems to be more about deescalating sufficiently for the Palestine issue to disappear from its media prominence; and not at all about ending a forever war which began in 1948.

The present forever war – now in its hottest phase – followed a brutal war for Israeli-Jewish independence and non-Jewish expulsion waged by fascist and non-fascist ‘non-state actors’ from 1939 to 1948 against the British ‘protectors’. That, in turn, followed a prior Palestinian insurrection against the British and the settlers from 1936-1939 (though overshadowed in the international media by the Spanish Civil War), which in its turn followed the 1929 Palestine riots. That’s 96 years of escalating forever violence.

In Summary

Recognise a new expanded state, with or without a new name, but with certain (unenforceable, but well-publicised) expectations. This expectation should be a multi-cultural Levantine sovereign state, embracing adherents of the three Abrahamic faiths (as well as people of other religions, or no religion, as citizens; people born in Israel or Palestine, and documented immigrants): Levantine Jews, Levantine Muslims, Levantine Christians, plus others. All Israelis. And all Palestinians.

*******

Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

June 25, 2025
MIL-OSI Australia: World-leading approach to domestic tourism data

Source: Australian Attorney General’s Agencies

After nearly three decades relying on the National Visitor Survey, Tourism Research Australia is adopting a new, higher quality and innovative way of measuring domestic travel, with the rollout of the quarterly Domestic Tourism Statistics (DoTS) from today.

Australia is the best country in the world, and we want to do all we can to encourage people to holiday at home. DoTS will provide an improved snapshot of domestic travel, which will help governments, industry and businesses to better understand and respond to trends.

The first of these releases, covering the March quarter 2025, demonstrated the strength of the Aussie summer holiday, with nearly 29 million overnight trips and more than $27 billion spent across the country.

The new methodology combines mobile phone data and survey information, for a more cost-effective, and world-leading approach to measuring tourism. DoTS has also been designed to adapt to include new data sources in the future.

The full report can be read on Tourism Research Australia’s website.

MIL OSI News –

June 25, 2025

MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: LCQ9: Preventing employees from suffering heat stroke at work

Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

LCQ9: Preventing employees from suffering heat stroke at work
Question:

Hong Kong has become increasingly hot during summer in recent years, and workers who have to work in a hot environment for long hours are at risk of heat stroke at any time. In the reply to this Council on the Estimates of Expenditure 2025-2026, the Government has indicated that the number of heat stress-related work injury cases registered by the Labour Department (LD) from 2022 to 2024 has shown a rising trend. There are views that the existing Guidance Notes on Prevention of Heat Stroke at Work (GN) is still advisory in nature and there is no mandatory requirement for strict enforcement by employers, so the occurrence of heat stroke-related accidents may not be effectively minimised if there is a lack of compliance of enterprises with GN. In this connection, will the Government inform this Council:

(1) among the cases of “Occupational Injuries in All Workplace – analysed by Type of Accident” in LD’s Occupational Safety and Health Statistics in each of the past three years, of the number of heat stroke-related cases under “Others” and, among them, the number of cases which deaths were caused by heat stroke, together with a breakdown by industry; whether heat stroke will be separated as a standalone type of accident;

(2) while the optimised Heat Stress at Work Warning (warning) is now linked with the “Extremely Hot” special alert of the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), some members of the trade have relayed that HKO’s data relating to heat stress has deviated from the actual temperature at workplaces (i.e. the temperature may not be the same in different districts), coupled with the deviation between the actual temperature of construction site at height and the ground level monitoring data, whether the Government will lower the benchmark of the Hong Kong Heat Index which corresponds to the three warning levels of amber, red and black, and at the same time enhance the Smart Site Safety System by leveraging technologies for real-time monitoring of the temperatures in various districts, so as to give accurate advance warnings and reduce the risk of employees suffering from heat stroke; and

(3) as there are views that the existing GN is not legally binding and the warning mechanism not only lacks stability, but also fails to cover all working environments, whether the Government will further refine GN or consider mandating the implementation of the workplace heat stress risk assessment through legislative approach, so as to ensure that workers can work in a safe environment; if so, of the details; if not, the reasons for that?

Reply:

President,

My reply to the Hon Kwok’s question is as follows:

(1) The Labour Department (LD) has been keeping separate statistics and records on cases of heat stroke or work injury cases related to heat stress. The breakdown of such cases by industry in the past three years is as follows:

Industry^ The case is a fatal case

(2) To prevent employees from suffering heat stroke while working in hot weather, employers should, with reference to LD’s Guidance Notes on Prevention of Heat Stroke at Work (GN), conduct risk assessments on heat stress for employees at work, and implement corresponding preventive measures based on the assessment results. When the Heat Stress at Work Warning (HSWW) is issued, it indicates that employees working in hot weather generally face a high level of heat stress risk. Employers should, taking account of the principles and recommendations of the GN, assess whether further control measures are needed, including the arrangement of hourly rest periods to reduce the risk of heat stroke.

     The HSWW is a territory-wide alert system established on the basis of Hong Kong Heat Index (HKHI) of the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). The HKHI announced by the HKO is calculated from meteorological data measured at the King’s Park Meteorological Station, which integrates factors affecting heat stress such as temperature, humidity, air movement, and solar thermal radiation. The calculation formula of the HKHI was derived from correlation analyses of past measurement data and the overall hospital admission figures in Hong Kong in the same period. Hence, the level of the HKHI can appropriately reflect the heat stress and health risks posed by weather to the general public in Hong Kong. The HSWW consists of three levels based on different values of the HKHI, namely Amber, Red, and Black, which indicate increasing heat stress risks. When the HSWW is in force, employers and employees implementing corresponding work and rest arrangements with reference to the recommendations in the GN can, in general, effectively reduce the risk of heat stroke posed to employees at work.

     However, if employers and employees, having regard to the specific circumstances of their workplaces (such as geographical location and work environment), believe that the HSWW cannot timely or adequately reflect the heat stress risk faced by employees at the concerned workplaces, employers can conduct their own assessments, such as seeking help from occupational health professionals to measure the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Index at the work site to assess the heat stress faced by employees and take corresponding preventive measures based on the results to reduce their risk of sustaining heat stroke at work. In addition, depending on the resources and professional support available at individual sites, employers can, where feasible, connect relevant data to the established Smart Site Safety System for monitoring and risk management.

(3) In accordance with the general duty clauses of section 6 of the Occupational Safety and Health Ordinance, every employer must, so far as reasonably practicable, ensure the safety and health at work of all the employer’s employees, including the provision or maintenance of a working environment and systems of work that are safe and without risks to health of the employees. Therefore, employers are required to conduct heat stress risk assessments for employees working in hot environment, and take necessary risk control measures based on the assessment results to safeguard employees against heat stroke at work.

     To assist employers in fulfilling the above general duty provisions, the LD issued the GN and introduced the HSWW, enabling employers and employees to refer to the recommendations in the GN and develop appropriate, risk-based preventive measures according to the heat stress level, thereby reducing the risk of heat stroke at work. To enhance the stability of the HSWW system, the LD adjusted the cancellation mechanism of the warning system last year, effectively reducing the occurrence of re-issuing warning within a short time after cancellation, and avoiding the need for employers to adjust preventive measures repeatedly.

     We believe that the GN and the HSWW can raise the awareness and capacity of employers and employees in preventing heat stroke at work, and we will continue our efforts in organising various publicity and promotional activities as well as providing education and training to remind and assist them to take appropriate heat stroke preventive measures in accordance with the GN.

     Moreover, the LD will continue to conduct inspection and law enforcement work. In particular, inspection of workplaces with a higher risk of heat stroke will be stepped up during summer time to ensure that employers have taken appropriate measures to safeguard employees against heat stroke at work. If irregularities are found during inspection, suitable law enforcement actions will be taken based on the seriousness of the circumstances and the evidence available.
Issued at HKT 12:17

NNNN

MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

June 25, 2025

MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Pre-loved tech will help to bridge digital divide under new government charter 
Source: United Kingdom – Government Statements

Press release

Pre-loved tech will help to bridge digital divide under new government charter 

Organisations can sign up to the IT Reuse for Good charter on GOV.UK and then work with their chosen charity partner to distribute devices.
Pre-loved tech bridging digital divide under new government charter.

Big names like Deloitte, Vodafone and Three alongside leading charity Good Things Foundation are uniting with government to encourage organisations to donate pre-loved tech to digital excluded Brits.

Organisations can sign up to the IT Reuse for Good charter on gov.uk from today and then work with their chosen charity partner to distribute devices.

The Charter encourages organisations to change how they manage and dispose of IT assets, with the aim of increasing device donations to the 1.5 million people in the United Kingdom who lack access to a basic laptop, tablet and smartphone. 

With technology transforming essential services like healthcare access, job applications and housing, government is doubling down on commitment to improve skills and technology access for all – breaking down barriers to opportunity as part of our Plan for Change.

Telecoms Minister Sir Chris Bryant said:

Britain is leading the way when it comes to technological advancements with everyday essentials such as doctor’s appointments and job applications becoming increasingly digital. But to maximise the full potential of technology, we need to bring everyone along with us on this journey. 

This Charter represents a significant step forward in our mission to bridge the digital divide and create a more sustainable approach to technology. By working together with industry and charity partners, we’re helping more people access the digital tools they need to improve their lives while reducing harmful electronic waste.

Research also shows that digitally excluded people face higher costs for things like home insurance, train travel and food paying up to 25% more on average than consumers who are online. 

The charter sets out principles for organisations to adhere to including ensuring devices are securely wiped, professionally refurbished and fit for purpose so they can be provided free of charge to those who need them.

Ryan, a single father from Essex, struggled without access to a laptop. “Job searching felt impossible,” he said. “I couldn’t keep up and felt like I was falling behind.”

Through a donation from Vodafone’s Great British Tech Appeal to the National Device Bank, an initiative led by Good Things Foundation, Ryan received a laptop that transformed his prospects. “This laptop isn’t just a piece of equipment – it’s a lifeline,” Ryan shares. Now, he can actively search for jobs, attend online training, and build a better future.

“I want my kids to see what’s possible with determination and the right support,” Ryan says.

Helen Milner OBE, CEO of Good Things Foundation, said:

Alongside the government, Vodafone, Three and Deloitte, Good Things Foundation has developed the IT Reuse for Good Charter, tackling the UK’s digital divide and e-waste crisis head-on. With 1.5 million adults lacking essential devices and 1.45 million tons of e-waste discarded yearly, we’re proud to lead the charge for a more inclusive and sustainable future.  The Charter builds on the success of our National Device Bank and will be a game-changer, unlocking thousands of devices. We have also launched a Playbook to help businesses to navigate IT reuse for good, and bake it into their organisations.

Richard Houston, Senior Partner and CEO Deloitte UK said:

Since 2021, we’ve donated 20,000 devices to schools and charities through our network of social impact partners. I’m incredibly proud that we have been able to help thousands of people continue education, find employment, and connect with loved ones through technology. Yet I know there is so much more that can be done. I encourage all organisations, whatever size, to consider the role you can play, and together, we can bridge the digital divide. 

Rich Marsh, Responsible Business Director at BT Group, said:

As well as being a leader in sustainability for more than 30 years, at BT we’ve seen first-hand the positive impact that digital inclusion projects are having across the UK – supported by our networks, social tariffs and digital skills programs.

We warmly welcome the ‘IT Re-Use for Good’ Charter, which brings these 2 things together and gives a second life to our devices. Now we’re committing to donate even more devices, helping play our part in providing people with the tech they need in today’s digital society.

Notes to editors

Signatories must donate their first device within 6 months of signing the charter. Progress will be monitored by self-reporting every 6 months. 

Digital Inclusion Action Plan documents

Digital Inclusion Action Plan

Research shows that digitally excluded people face higher costs for things like home insurance, train travel and food paying up to 25% more on average than consumers who are online. Centre for Social Justice – Left Out (2023): How to tackle digital exclusion and reduce the poverty premium (page 5)

1.5 million people in the UK currently lack access to a basic laptop, tablet or smartphone Access: Expert Overview – August 2024, Good Things Foundation

Paula Coughlan, Chief People, Communications and Sustainability Officer said:

At Currys, everything we do is to help everyone enjoy amazing technology. Within that, we’re very aware that not everyone can afford or have access to the amazing tech we sell. Through our work to date, it’s clear to see the positive, transformative power of just one digital device for a child or for a family, and how isolating not having access to the digital world really is. That’s why we were founding members of the Digital Poverty Alliance, and why we’re committed to doing everything we can to help make digital poverty a thing of the past. It’s been wonderful to work with Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT) on this important new Charter and we’re proud to be signatories. The more we can do as a society, as businesses, working together with government with solutions to bridge the digital divide, the more likely we are to really make a difference.

DSIT media enquiries

Email press@dsit.gov.uk

Monday to Friday, 8:30am to 6pm 020 7215 3000

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Published 25 June 2025
MIL OSI United Kingdom –
June 25, 2025
MIL-OSI Australia: Aussie uni commencements bounce back big time

Source: Murray Darling Basin Authority

After years of decline, the number of Australians getting a crack at university are bouncing back.

When you take out the two COVID years, this year looks set to be the biggest year for Australians commencing an undergraduate or postgraduate university degree on record.

Preliminary data for 2024 shows around 390,000 domestic students began a degree – a 3.7 per cent increase on 2023.

This includes more than 20,000 new starters in nursing degrees (a 3 per cent increase) and more than 25,000 new starters in teaching degrees (a 9 per cent increase).

Early, year to date figures for 2025 suggest that growth is continuing with commencements up another 3 per cent compared to the same time in 2024.

This reverses the trend seen since 2017, excluding the COVID years, where the number of domestic students commencing an undergraduate or postgraduate degree have been steadily falling.

Source: Higher Education Statistics – Student Data

Notes: 2024 data are preliminary. Final, official statistics may vary. 2025 data are a preliminary forecast based on year-to-date (YTD) May 2025 data. Final, full year 2025 data may differ if YTD May growth is not sustained at previous levels throughout the academic year.

In addition, over 14,000 students have taken up Fee-Free Uni Ready courses this year.

Fee-Free Uni Ready courses are short courses that help prepare people for university, acting as a bridge between school or work and higher education.

Quotes attributable to Minister for Education Jason Clare:

‘We need more people with more skills. That means more people finishing schools and more people going to TAFE or uni, or both.

“The Universities Accord sets a target that by 2050, 80 per cent of workers will have a TAFE or university qualification.

“To hit that target, we need to break down that invisible barrier that stops a lot of Australians from disadvantaged backgrounds, from the regions and the outer suburbs from getting a crack at uni and succeeding when they get there.

“That requires reform across the entire education system. That’s what the fully funding of our public schools is about. It’s also what the new funding system for our universities, that will roll out next year, is about.

“That will deliver demand-driven funding for equity students and needs based funding ensuring students get the academic and wrap-around supports they need to succeed at university.”

MIL OSI News –

June 25, 2025
MIL-OSI New Zealand: Stats NZ information release: National labour force projections: 2024(base)–2078
National labour force projections: 2024(base)–2078 – information release

25 June 2025

National labour force projections indicate the future size and age-sex structure of the labour force usually living in New Zealand based on assumptions about labour force participation and average hours worked, and current policy settings.

Key facts
National labour force projections indicate the future size and age-sex structure of the labour force living in Aotearoa New Zealand. All data cited here relate to June years. Data before 2024 are sourced from the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS, year ended June, unless otherwise stated).

The projections indicate that:

New Zealand’s labour force will continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow in the long-term

the labour force will age, reflecting increasing labour force participation rates among males and females aged 50 years and over (50+), and the general ageing of the population.

Visit our website to read this information release:

National labour force projections: 2024(base)–2078
MIL OSI New Zealand News –
June 25, 2025
MIL-OSI New Zealand: Stats NZ information release: Overseas merchandise trade: May 2025
Overseas merchandise trade: May 2025 – information release

25 June 2025

Overseas merchandise trade statistics provide information on imports and exports of merchandise goods between New Zealand and other countries.

Key facts
This release refers to trade in goods only.

In May 2025, compared with May 2024:

goods exports rose by $676 million (9.7 percent), to $7.7 billion

goods imports fell by $499 million (7.2 percent), to $6.4 billion

the monthly trade balance was a surplus of $1.2 billion.

Visit our website to read this information release:

Overseas merchandise trade: May 2025

Overseas merchandise trade datasets
MIL OSI New Zealand News –
June 25, 2025

	2022	2023	2024
Number of applications (Number of designs involved (Note 1))	31 (66)	39 (79)	59 (82)
Number of registrations (Note 2)	78	76	41

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Pre-loved tech will help to bridge digital divide under new government charter

Notes to editors

Digital Inclusion Action Plan documents

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Updates to this page

Pre-loved tech will help to bridge digital divide under new government charter 