Category: Ukraine

  • MIL-OSI Global: Investigators are increasingly using technology in conflict-related sexual assault cases

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Valerie Oosterveld, Professor, Faculty of Law, and Western Research Chair in International Criminal Justice, Western University

    In the last two weeks of February, humanitarian agencies reported 895 cases of conflict-related rape as M23 rebels advanced through the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). According to a United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees official, this was an average of more than 60 rapes a day.




    Read more:
    M23’s capture of Goma is the latest chapter in eastern Congo’s long-running war


    UNICEF officials reported similarly grim figures. Between Jan. 27 and Feb. 2, 2025, the number of rape cases treated across 42 health facilities in DRC jumped five-fold, with 30 per cent of these cases being children.

    While immediate responses are needed to stop the violence, provide health care to the survivors and assist the displaced, the pursuit of justice also plays a critical role.

    Investigative bodies, including the International Criminal Court (ICC), are increasingly using technology to investigate conflict-related sexual violence. In a recent research project, my team interviewed experts who specialize in conflict-related sexual violence investigations around the world. The research was supported by XCEPT, a conflict research program funded by the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development.

    Investigating sexual violence

    The ICC’s chief prosecutor, Karim Khan, visited DRC at the end of February and met with sexual violence survivors. The ICC has the mandate to investigate rape, sexual slavery and other gender-based violence amounting to genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. The office had reactivated investigations in October 2024.

    Investigators start by speaking to survivors, following guidelines such as the 2023 Policy on Gender-Based Crimes or the Global Code of Conduct for Gathering and Using Information About Systematic and Conflict-Related Sexual Violence. The Global Code of Conduct is known as the Murad Code after Nobel Peace Prize recipient and advocate Nadia Murad.

    In our research, we found that survivors of conflict-related sexual violence are connecting with investigators through various technologies, such as directly using encrypted apps like Signal. Survivors also go through civil society organizations equipped to take video or electronic statements — Yazda, for example, which works with Yazidi survivors of ISIS crimes in northern Iraq — or via portals like the ICC’s OTPLink. The UN’s Commissions of Inquiry also encourage and receive email submissions.

    International courts and investigative bodies are also analyzing open-source information on conflict-related sexual violence, such as videos, photos and statements posted on online platforms. Guided by the Berkeley Protocol on Digital Open Source Investigations, this information can be useful to support witness statements, place alleged perpetrators at the scene of the violations and link incidents into a pattern of similar violence.

    For example, the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria described how ISIS used the encrypted app Telegram and other online platforms to buy and sell captured Yazidi women and girls across the Iraq-Syria border to sustain its sabaya (sexual slavery) system.

    In Ukraine, our study found that the main technology-related concern in open-source data gathering is identifying AI-created and other artificially generated images, specifically designed and planted in the public domain as a form of disinformation or to compromise investigations.

    Face and voice recognition

    Conflict-related sexual violence is often perpetrated indoors which makes certain technologies like satellite or drone imagery less useful. However, other forms of technology have proven to be beneficial in Ukraine’s investigations. In particular, face and voice recognition software have supported efforts to identify alleged perpetrators.

    While Ukraine’s experience points to some successes, investigations into sexual violence committed by ISIS in northern Iraq have been hampered. This is partly due to the lack of automated translation software in the Yazidi language to facilitate the transcription and translation of testimonies.

    This speaks to the importance of developing software to translate minority languages spoken in armed conflict zones.

    Survivor concerns

    Survivors have expressed concerns about the turn to the digital. They fear that their identities and experiences may be revealed through hacking or poor data handling, which could put them at risk of reprisals from perpetrators or their accomplices. It could also lead to stigmatization and ostracization in some communities, undoing survivors’ efforts to rebuild their lives.

    To address these concerns, international courts and investigative bodies have adopted data protection protocols. However, the lack of a standardized framework for the use of technology in the investigation of conflict-related sexual violence remains a significant concern for the investigators we interviewed.

    Such a framework would incorporate best practices in supporting survivors providing evidence, tracking and preserving open source information and developing new technological applications.

    If there is to be justice for survivors of conflict-related rape in DRC and elsewhere, technology — provided it is used with great sensitivity — will likely be an important and timely aid.

    Valerie Oosterveld received funding for this research from the UK’s Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy, and Trends (XCEPT) research programme.

    ref. Investigators are increasingly using technology in conflict-related sexual assault cases – https://theconversation.com/investigators-are-increasingly-using-technology-in-conflict-related-sexual-assault-cases-249227

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI USA: Sherman Hosts Passionate In-Person Town Hall, Draws +1,000 at Cal State Northridge Arena

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Brad Sherman (D-CA)

    Northridge, California – On April 26th, Congressman Brad Sherman welcomed over 1,000 residents of California’s 32nd Congressional District to an in-person Town Hall at California State University, Northridge (CSUN).

    The event drew a packed and passionate crowd as Congressman Sherman addressed critical issues impacting both the district and the nation. Topics ranged from the chaos and recklessness of the Trump administration’s agenda, its dismantling of critical services — from Social Security to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau – our recovery efforts from the Los Angeles wildfires and much more.

    Passions ran high throughout the evening as constituents voiced deep concerns about national political trends and the erosion of public trust. Despite the charged atmosphere, the meeting showcased the district’s strong civic engagement and commitment to holding leaders accountable.

    “I am proud to represent a district that cares deeply about the future of our democracy and isn’t afraid to speak out,” said Congressman Sherman. “Our challenges are serious, but our passion and involvement are stronger.”

    Today’s Town Hall was part of Sherman’s long-standing tradition of maintaining open and direct communication with the residents he serves during critical periods in our nation’s history.

    During the Town Hall, Sherman requested input from residents by asking a series of survey questions about their thoughts and concerns.

    The results of the survey questions are as follows:

    1) Do you approve of President Trump’s performance as President so far?

    – Approve: 10%
    – Disapprove: 88%
    – Unsure: 2%


    2) Should your Member of Congress vote for legislation that they think is good for the country, or should they vote NO on everything that Republican Speaker Johnson is willing to propose and Trump is willing to sign?

    – Obstruction & Resistance: Vote NO on all of Speaker Johnson and President Trump’s legislation: 44%

    – Negotiate with Republicans but only vote for a bill Democrats think is good: 42%

    – Vote with Republicans: 10%

    -Unsure: 4%


    3) Since October 7th, 2023, we’ve provided aid to Israel of $14.1 billion, which is about one-tenth of what we have provided Ukraine, whichwas also attacked a couple of years ago. Should we continue to provide arms aid to Israel?

    – Yes, provide arms aid to Israel: 30%
    – No, do not provide arms aid to Israel: 55%
    – Unsure: 15%


    4) Should U.S. tax dollars be used to purchase Bitcoin, Dogecoin, or Trump coin?

    – Yes, take our tax dollars and buy cryptocurrency: 1%
    – No, do not buy crypto with tax dollars: 98%
    – Unsure: 1%

    ###

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Europe: “Pope Francis, now we ask you to pray for us”

    Source: Agenzia Fides – MIL OSI

    Saturday, 26 April 2025

    Fabio Beretta/Agenzia Fides

    by Fabio BerettaVatican City (Fides Agency) – “The Easter sun shines brightly” on the day when the Church and the whole world bid farewell to Pope Francis, the 265th Successor of Peter, who passed away six days ago. A death illuminated by the joy of the Resurrection, as written in the document that was placed in the coffin containing the remains of the Bishop of Rome in the last few hours: “while the light of Easter illumined the second day of the Octave, Easter Monday, the beloved Shepherd of the Church, Francis, passed from this world to the Father.”Heads of state, royalty, and diplomats from every corner of the earth are present . Among them are Presidents Trump and Zelensky, who, shortly before the funeral, despite the tight schedule imposed by the ceremony, met in the Vatican basilica to resume talks on the much-desired peace in war-torn Ukraine that Pope Francis has invoked since February 2022.Together with world leaders, a crowd of 250,000 people filled Bernini’s massive colonnades. The crowd was so big that even the entire Via della Conciliazione was not enough to contain it.As the Pope’s coffin was carried on the shoulders of pallbearers and placed in front of the altar, the tolling of St. Peter’s bell announced the beginning of the ceremony.Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, Dean of the College of Cardinals, presided over the funeral Mass for the Roman Pontiff. In his homily, interrupted several times by applause, the Dean recalled the highlights of these twelve years of pontificate, focusing on the aspects and themes that characterized Pope Francis’ ministry, beginning with evangelization, which, the Cardinal Dean remarked, ” has been the guiding principle of his pontificate, spreading, with a clear missionary vision, he spread the joy of the Gospel, which was the title of his first Apostolic Exhortation, Evangelii gaudium. It is a joy that fills the hearts of all those who entrust themselves to God with confidenceand hope.”Cardinal Re also said that Pope Francis “Pope Francis always placed the Gospel of mercy at the centre, repeatedly emphasising that God never tires of forgiving us. He always forgives, whatever the situation might be of the person who asks for forgiveness and returns to the right path. He called for the Extraordinary Jubilee of Mercy in order to highlight that mercy is “the heart of the Gospel.””And if Pope Francis “used to conclude his speeches and meetings by saying, “Do not forget to pray for me”, the Dean of the College of Cardinals, at the end of his homily, concludes: “Dear Pope Francis, we now ask you to pray for us. May you bless the Church, bless Rome and bless the whole world from heaven as you did last Sunday from the balcony of this Basilica in a final embrace with all the people of God, but also embrace humanity that seeks the truth with a sincere heart and holds high the torch of hope.”The bell rings again at the end of the celebration, accompanying the transfer of the coffin from the Vatican basilica to the outdoor area of Santa Marta, which has been the Pope’s residence for the past twelve years. The coffin, placed on the popemobile, leaves the Vatican and, along the ancient Via Papalis, the road that the popes used to travel from the Vatican to the Lateran, passes through Via Merulana and arrives at Santa Maria Maggiore. Along the streets of the city center, 150,000 people gather to bid him farewell.Before burial, the coffin was brought before the chapel that houses the icon of Salus Populi Romani. In a niche next to it, under the gaze of the Virgin Mary, Pope Francis will rest in peace. ( Fides Agency 26/4/2025)
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    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-OSI Europe: President Meloni meets with President Zelensky at Palazzo Chigi

    Source: Government of Italy (English)

    26 Aprile 2025

    The President of the Council of Ministers, Giorgia Meloni, met with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, at Palazzo Chigi today.

    During the meeting, the leaders reaffirmed their support for President Trump’s efforts to reach a just and lasting peace, able to guarantee a future of security, sovereignty and freedom for Ukraine.

    Also on behalf of the Government, President Meloni expressed her condolences for the victims of the recent Russian attacks, reiterating the firm condemnation of such acts and stressing the urgency of an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, as well as the need for a concrete commitment from Moscow to initiate a peace process. President Meloni welcomed Ukraine’s full readiness for an immediate ceasefire. A concrete demonstration also from Russia of its willingness to pursue peace is now awaited.

    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: PM meeting with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine: 26 April 2025

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Press release

    PM meeting with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine: 26 April 2025

    The Prime Minister met President Zelenskyy in Rome.

    The Prime Minister met President Zelenskyy in Rome this afternoon.

    They discussed positive progress made in recent days to secure a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. 

    They agreed to maintain momentum and continue working intensively with international partners to drive forward the next stages of planning. 

    The leaders agreed to speak again at the earliest opportunity.

    Updates to this page

    Published 26 April 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI USA: Quigley Statement on the Retirement of Democratic Whip and Senator Dick Durbin

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Representative Mike Quigley (IL-05)

    Chicago, Ill. – Today, U.S. Representative Mike Quigley (IL-05) released the following statement regarding the announcement that U.S. Senator Dick Durbin (IL) will not seek re-election:

    “After serving the people of Illinois for over 40 years in Congress, my colleague Senator Dick Durbin has shared that he plans to retire at the end of his term. 

    “From securing federal funds to extend Chicago’s Red Line and bolster anti-flooding infrastructure, to supporting full LGBTQ+ equality, Senator Durbin has been an essential partner in solving problems right here at home. As the Senate Democratic whip for two decades, Durbin has also mobilized my Democratic colleagues to vote for transformative legislation, including the Affordable Care Act, First Step Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. In recent years, I have also been honored to work with Senator Durbin in advocating for Ukraine in the war against Russian aggression.

    “Senator Durbin’s decision to retire embodies the essence of public service—doing what is best even when it is difficult. I will miss his partnership and advocacy in the Senate, but I look forward to seeing him thrive in this next chapter.”

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Security: Senior NATO advisors meet in Kyiv to discuss priorities for joint NATO-Ukraine lessons learned centre

    Source: NATO

    The Senior Advisory Board (SAB) of the NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis, Training and Education Centre (JATEC) met in Kyiv, Ukraine on 25 April 2025, to discuss key priorities. Since its opening in February 2025, the Centre has already carried out its first projects focused on air defence, protection of critical infrastructure, and resilience and total defence.

    For this second SAB meeting, NATO senior representatives were invited to Kyiv by Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense Serhiy Boyev. Assistant Secretary General for Operations Tom Goffus chaired the meeting with representatives from Ukraine, NATO and Poland. ASG Goffus said that hosting the meeting in Kyiv not only highlighted JATEC’s importance but also demonstrates NATO’s continued and steadfast support to Ukraine.

    NATO leadership discussed JATEC’s Programme of Work, priorities and next steps. They agreed to deliver concrete and actionable combat lessons for both Ukraine and NATO, whilst embedding civilian-military aspects within the JATEC organisation. 

    NATO continues to provide political and practical support for Ukraine. In the first three months of 2025, Allies have already pledged over 20 billion euros in security assistance for Ukraine this year. In Wiesbaden, Germany, NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) is coordinating the delivery of training and security assistance to Ukraine. And in Bydgoszcz, Poland, JATEC is analysing crucial lessons from the battlefield in Ukraine. The first civil-military organisation to be jointly run by NATO and Ukraine, JATEC and its work will help further strengthen Ukraine’s defence sector, enhance its deterrence and defence, and reach full interoperability with NATO.

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI USA: Durbin, Markey To Attend Late Pope Francis’ Funeral On Saturday

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Illinois Dick Durbin

    April 25, 2025

    ROME – U.S. Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) and U.S. Senator Ed Markey (D-MA) announced today that they will attend the late Pope Francis’ funeral at the Vatican City on Saturday. The bipartisan Senate delegation is being led by Durbin and U.S. Senator Susan Collins (R-ME). Along with Markey, Senators Mike Rounds (R-SD) and Eric Schmitt (R-MO) are also attending.

    Following his death, Durbin wrote, “We have lost the messenger, but we must hold fast to the message of Pope Francis to love and respect one another. In a world of hate and fear, Pope Francis’ message of peace and understanding is needed now more than ever.

    “We should honor the Pope with a ‘Francis Day’ of world peace: stop the bombing in Ukraine and Gaza; feed the dying in Sudan and around the globe; and show kindness to one another.”

    “It is a great honor to join mourners from around the world in St. Peter’s Square to pay our respects to the People’s Pope, His Holiness Pope Francis. In his words and in his deeds, Pope Francis taught us to fight for a better world – one that meets the needs of the most vulnerable among us, and one that grants dignity to all,” said Markey.“Pope Francis held a unique power in convening people, instilling in them a moral obligation to act boldly on the world’s most pressing issues, and guiding them through dark and difficult times with his wisdom, humility, and compassion. When we met, we discussed the necessity to act on climate change and the challenges it poses to the planet we call our home. I carry his mandate forward with me to be in service of life and to embrace the moments and opportunities to be part of a global movement that protects our people and our planet.

    Durbin also attended the funeral mass of Pope John Paul II in 2005.

    -30-

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Press Briefing Transcript: European Department, Spring Meetings 2025

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    April 25, 2025

    PARTICIPANTS:

     MR. HELGE BERGER, Deputy Director, European Department, IMF

     MS. OYA CELASUN, Deputy Director, European Department, IMF

     MR. ALFRED KAMMER, Director, European Department, IMF

    MODERATOR: 

    MS. CAMILA PEREZ, Senior Communications Officer, IMF

    *  *  *  *  *

    P R O C E E D I N G S

    (10:00 a.m.)

    MS. PEREZ: Hi everyone.  Thank you so much for joining today’s press conference on the European Economic Outlook.  I’m Camila Perez.  I’m a Communications Officer with the IMF.  We’re pleased to be joined today by Alfred Kammer, sitting next to me, Director of the European Department here at the IMF.  Also, with us we’ve got Oya Celasun and Helge Berger, both Deputy Directors of the Department. 

    We’ll begin as usual with some opening remarks from Alfred, and then we’ll take your questions.  I see some colleagues joining online, so we will also go to your questions online.  Alfred, over to you. 

    MR. KAMMER: Welcome to this press conference on Europe. I have posted my opening remarks and also circulated.  You should have them.  So, I will just make a few points for emphasis. 

    First of all, in terms of the outlook, we have had a meaningful downgrade for Europe that reflects the impact of tariffs, partially compensated by an increase in infrastructure spending and defense spending, in particular from Germany.  But the biggest impact is coming from uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.  The impact is different for the Euro area versus CESEE (Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe).  CESEE is more affected as it has a larger manufacturing sector and is more exposed to tariffs. 

    Second point to make is when we are looking at the medium term, we see rather weak growth, and that has not changed from our previous outlook.  And that is a clear result of a large productivity gap Europe has to the global economy.  And that is something which clearly needs to be fixed.  We were talking about internal barriers; we are talking about financial barriers which need to be overcome.  So that’s part of the medium-term growth story, and that is something for the policy part. 

    On the policy recommendations, first, our recommendation is more trade is better and therefore we are very encouraged that the European Union is continuing to move forward on trade agreements.  Those who have been — which have been negotiated, they should be brought to a conclusion. 

    The second policy advice is on the monetary side.  In the Euro area, we had success in the disinflation effort.  We are forecasting now that we hit the target in the second half of 2025.  What does that mean for ECB monetary policy?  One more cut in the summer of 25 basis points and then keep the rate on hold at 2 percent until — unless major shocks ask for a recalibration of that monetary stance.  A bit different in CESEE, where inflation is more persistent and still higher, and there needs to be taken more caution in terms of the easing part.

    On fiscal consolidation, fiscal consolidation should continue.  Europe needs to build up buffers for the next shock.  But also, Europe needs to build fiscal space for long-term spending pressures, which we have on aging, health care, the energy transition, and of course, now an accelerated need is on defense spending. 

    Final point, focus needs to be on structural reforms.  In Europe, we have been making suggestions on reforms which could be taken at the EU level.  Draghi Letta, we have a shared diagnostic.  We also have an understanding of the policy solutions.  These reforms should be undertaken with urgency.  We selected a number of key reforms which are under discussion.  If we are looking at the benefit of the implementation, it would add 3 percent to the level of GDP in Europe.  So, these reforms need to be pushed forward with urgency. 

    There’s also a need for national structural reforms.  There’s lots of benefit to those.  Priority in Europe actually is on the labor market side, including on upskilling and reskilling of workers.  We put together, country by country, a set of priority reform areas.  If countries actually close the gap to the best-performing countries, best-practice countries in these areas by only 50 percent, it would give a boost to the level of GDP by 5 percent for advanced European countries, by 6 to 7 percent for CESEE countries and for the Western Balkan countries, the number is 9 percent increase in GDP.  So, the reform areas are discussed, the reform areas are agreed.  What now needs to happen is the political will, and that is not easy to overcome vested interests, but it needs to be done because this is to secure the future of Europe.  Thank you. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thanks so much, Alfred. We can now start with your questions.  We will go to the room.  Please raise your hand when called, identify yourself, name, and outlet.  We’re going to get started with the lady sitting here.  Thank you.  First row. 

    QUESTIONER: Hi, good morning.  Thank you for taking my question.  So, in recent weeks financial market has shown increasing pressure on U.S. Treasury while demand on the European debt appears to be rising.  Do you believe this shift represents a sustainable trend?  And more broadly, do you think that what some have termed European exceptionalism could eventually supplant the American exceptionalism in the global economic and financial order?  Thank you. 

    MR. KAMMER: First, to move to European exceptionalism. It’s still a long and hard road away, and it starts with utilizing the single market in order to create the productivity gains necessary actually to create markets to scale and to create financing to scale so that we get a dynamic business sector going.  And that is a must, which needs to be done in order to increase growth, and also, given all of the spending needs coming to secure the European welfare state. 

    On your other question, we should not overinterpret the shifts which have taken place on the portfolio side over the last few weeks.  When markets are adjusting, you would expect rebalancing to take place.  At this stage, way too early to say whether there has been a structural shift. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you, Alfred. We’re going to go now to the gentleman in the fourth row with the blue jacket, please. 

    QUESTIONER: Mr. Kammer, Germany has been very praised here during the Spring Meetings for its new fiscal stimulus package.  But in Germany we have a little bit of different discussion.  A lot of economists criticize the lack of structural reforms in Germany.  Do you have already a first assessment of how the fiscal stimulus package could boost the weak German potential growth?  And do you think that the expenditures are in line with the EU fiscal rules, or must the EU fiscal rules be reformed again so that Germany just can spend the money in the end?  Thanks.

    MR. KAMMER: On your first question, yes, we do. And I hand over to Oya. 

    MS. CELASUN: Thank you very much. So, you’re asking how the fiscal stimulus will impact the German economy and how it fits in with the broader structural reform agenda.  So, it will bring some — blow some energy into the economy after several years of weak growth.  We don’t expect the ramp-up in expenditures to be very quick.  We expect the peak effect in 2026.  Basically in ’25, it will bring some partial offset to the increased drags we are seeing from the trade side from global uncertainty, weak consumer and business confidence.  But as we move into 2026 and 2027, it will be a dominant factor offsetting the expected ongoing drag from trade tensions.  So, it will certainly lift aggregate demand. 

    And the part on infrastructure spending is very welcome.  For years we’ve pointed to deficient public infrastructure as a factor holding back growth in Germany.  So not only will it help growth in the near-term through aggregate demand, but it should have, if fully spent, it should have an effect on lifting potential growth in the long-term as well.  It is one of the important areas we see for lifting potential growth as Germany moves into a period with weak growth in its workforce — in fact, a sharp contraction in the coming five years.  So that’s very welcome.  But there are other important areas.  One of them is cutting red tape, actually important for lifting public infrastructure spending as well.  It’s important for Germany to be a leader in pushing European integration and also deal with its shrinking labor force by helping women work full-time.  Thanks. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thanks, Oya. We’re —

    QUESTIONER: [off mic]

    MS. CELASUN: So maybe the important thing to mention is that Germany has fiscal space, it has low debt, it has low deficits, it has low borrowing costs. So that’s very important.  We, our own forecasts suggest that Germany, once you exclude defense spending of about 1.5 percent of GDP relative to 2021, will keep its deficits below 3 percent.  Thank you. 

    MS. PEREZ: We’re going to go now to the center. Gentlemen on the second row.  Thank. 

    QUESTIONER: Thank you.  In the updated World Economic Outlook, the IMF downgraded its projection for Ukraine up to 2 percent this year compared with the November forecast, which was 2.5-3.5 percent.  Could you please elaborate on the aspects that have affected the current forecast?  What share of this is due to the global and regional slowdown, domestic factors, war, or external support?  And secondly, may I ask you to comment on the issue of debt restructuring for Ukraine?  Do you have communication with the Ukrainian government on this, and how do you evaluate the risks for Ukraine if they couldn’t reach a deal on this issue?  Thank you.

    MS. PEREZ: Let me see if there’s any other questions on Ukraine. The lady in the third row.  Thank you.

    QUESTIONER: I also want to ask you about the crisis and there are — have many — many different cases, many countries have had their debt written off.  And do you recommend the creditors write off part of Ukraine’s debt, and is this option being considered now?  Thank you.

    MR. KAMMER: So, let me start with a question on growth first. What we are seeing is lower growth momentum carrying forward from 2024.  That is a reflection of the bombing of the energy infrastructure and that is hampering the economy.  It’s also reflecting a very tight labor market and it’s reflecting continued uncertainty of the length of the war and how the war will evolve and affect the economy.  And that is clearly weighing on growth in 2025. 

    I should say, of course, and emphasize again that the Ukraine economic team, Minister of Finance, Central Bank Governor are doing an extraordinary job to maintain macro stability under these conditions and also to prepare the economy for a post-war reconstruction period.  And important for that is the need to work on the medium-term national revenue strategy because Ukraine will need revenue in order to provide all of the necessary service of a modern state and their support the reconstruction.  So, I think that’s very important.  But praise again for the economic team to operate and attain macro stability in this difficult situation. 

    On the debt part, what we are seeing is that there is a credible process underway with private creditors that is proceeding, and that is an important element of the Fund program.  So that in the end, under the Fund program, we are going to see that sustainability in Ukraine emerging. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you. We’re going to go to this side of the room.  The lady in the second row.  Thank you.

    QUESTIONER: Hi, good morning.  A question on the UK.  There’s a lot of speculation in the UK about a potential trade deal with the U.S.  Will it make any difference to growth?  And our finance minister was on the radio this morning saying our trading relationship with Europe was arguably even more important because they’re nearer to us.  Do you agree with that?

    MR. KAMMER: Helge?

    MR. BERGER: We agree with everybody who concludes that more trade is better than less trade. We understand that trade has been sort of in the past and will be in the future, I’m sure, an engine for growth and productivity improvements. So, in that spirit, sort of any trade agreements that the UK will be concluding with any country going forward that will improve sort of the trading relationships that they already have are very welcome.  And we would generally encourage all countries to follow this path. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you. We’re going to go.  The gentleman in the second row. 

    QUESTIONER: Hi. I was just wondering, during the meetings this week, there seem to be differing opinions among European leaders about the prospects of a trade deal with the United States.  The French saying they think perhaps a deal might be some way off.  The Germans expressing more optimism.  I just wondered from your vantage point how important you think it is that a deal be done for growth for the European Union and for Europe more broadly.  Thank you. 

    MR. KAMMER: Yeah, so clearly our message is more trade is better. Trade tensions are bad for growth.  And so, we are encouraging to have constructive negotiations.  And the U.S. is a large trading partner of the European Union, so we are hoping that there will be successful negotiations taking place.  And in our discussions with European leaders, I don’t sense any difference of views with regard to the importance of that relationship and that an effort needs to be made to de-escalate and to negotiate a deal. 

    MS. PEREZ: We’re going to go online now. Go ahead please.  You can unmute yourself. 

    QUESTIONER: Good morning.  Thank you so much.  Trade between Russia and Europe has shrunk dramatically due to sanctions and counter-sanctions.  How does the IMF characterize the current state of Russia-Europe trade flows?  Are we essentially seeing a permanent decoupling of the Russian economy from its European trading partners, or are there still significant economic interactions that could influence the outlook?  Moreover, what does the IMF foresee for the future of these trade relations?  Is any normalization expected within the forecast horizon, taking into account U.S. tariffs, or will they remain at minimal levels?  Thank you. 

    MR. KAMMER: So, it would be speculative on my side to pronounce on what the future will bring with regard to the European Russian relations. Fact is that there has been a decoupling taking place, or trade has been reduced quite considerably. And Russia, in response, has increased domestic production, import substitution, and reoriented trade relations, in particular to China and India.  So that has taken place.  When we are looking at the Russian economy, what we are seeing is a quite sharp slowdown this year from last year’s growth, and that shows the strain the war is imposing on the Russian economy.  Importantly, what we see is if this isolation of Russia is going to continue, it will impact, of course, on the transfer of technology.  And we are forecasting that potential growth in Russia has fallen significantly to 1.2 percent.  And with such a potential growth rate, it will not converge to Western European living standards.  Thank you. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thanks. We’re going to go with the first row.  The gentleman in the jacket, please. 

    QUESTIONER: Thank you.  Italy’s growth forecast was cut in half, almost from 0.7 to 0.4.  Was it just on account of trade or for other factors?  And if you have any policy recommendation for the government.  And also, another question on the ECB, you are recommending that they cut 2 percent.  Most economists expect the rate to go down below 2 percent.  Are you suggesting they should stay at that level.

    MR. KAMMER: Yeah, maybe I’ll start with the ECB question, and Helge can take the question on the growth performance of Italy. So, what we are seeing is that inflation is coming down as expected. The uncertainty at this stage is at the wage side.  But here we also see a slowdown, and we are expecting wages to converge to projections by the end of this year.  And the bottom line of this is that we expect that the inflation target of 2 percent will be sustainably met in the second half of 2025.  We will see that headline inflation may be a bit below and that reflects the impact of lower energy prices.  We will see that core inflation may stay a bit above 2.  The bottom line on our side is we are looking at a monetary policy stance which will maintain sustainably this inflation rate at 2 percent.  And we are seeing that can be achieved with another 25-basis point cut and then hold at 2 percent.  We don’t see a need for going lower than 2 percent. 

    This, of course, is subject to major shocks affecting the monetary policy stance in the future.  We should not forget.  And we are emphasizing major shocks because the impact on monetary policy on inflation is not going to become evident within the first 18 months.  So, this is a long-term endeavor whenever you are changing the monetary stance.

    MS. PEREZ: Helge. 

    MR. BERGER: Italy.  So, thanks for the question.  The downgrade as in 2025, this year, 2.4 from 0.7, and next year from 0.9 to 0.8, is roughly in line what we have seen in other countries.  So, there are two factors at play.  One is the trade tensions.  They have a direct element, so there’s an exposure to tariffs.  But there’s also trade uncertainty.  And this uncertainty has also left its marks on financial conditions which have tightened.  So, all these factors sort of slow down growth. 

    In ’26, the downgrade is a bit lower because some of these effects are less urgent.  But we also do have some countervailing factors such as the NRP public investment surging as the program comes to an end.  And that’s something we welcome.  The government is making good progress in this area, and we like the public investment and reforms attached to it.  It is also clear that after ’26, when this program is over, there is an opportunity to ramp up domestic structural reforms.  The country has a comprehensive agenda which we encourage it to continue on.  That includes reforms in education and upskilling, includes business environment reforms.  And finally, labor market participation is a perennial issue in Italy, as we heard.  It’s also an issue in other countries, but I think Italy is part of this. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you.  We’re going to go towards the back of the room.  The lady in the light green jacket, please. 

    QUESTIONER:  Thank you.  I would like to ask about Turkish economy.  In the World Economic Outlook report, unlike most countries, we see a slight upward revision in Türkiye’s growth forecast this year.  And the country’s economic growth is also projected to accelerate next year.  How do you assess the current state of Turkish economy?  Also, how does the IMF view the country’s progress in controlling inflation? 

    MR. KAMMER: Yeah, so what we are seeing under growth performance is to some extent a carryover from a very strong momentum in the second half of 2024.  And that led to a growth upgrade, a small one, but compensating.  And that is important for the negative impact of tariffs and uncertainty on the outlook. 

    With regard to the government’s disinflation program that is moving forward.  The economic team is implementing disinflation program.  Our recommendation remains, disinflation should happen faster and that requires a tighter macroeconomic policy mix.  And the linchpin of that needs to be tighter fiscal policy.  And why do we advocate that?  The longer the disinflation effort is dragging out the longer the time of vulnerability and being hit by shocks which we don’t know yet to even think about it.  So, disinflation program accelerate linchpin is tied to fiscal policy. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you.  We’re going to go with the gentleman on the fifth row.  Thank you. 

    QUESTIONER:  Good afternoon.  Mr. Kammer, you strongly advocate trade agreements between Europe and other countries.  As you well know, France is quite reluctant to sign the Mercosur Agreement.  The whole political spectrum is very reluctant, saying that there are issues on farming and environment.  What would you say to convince France and other maybe reluctant countries to sign this Mercosur Agreement? 

    MR. KAMMER: Yeah, I would say first, it’s not just Mercosur.  Mercosur is one aspect.  There are other trade agreements in place.  And when you’re looking at the success of technology and of trade in terms of lifting up living standards globally, is just immense.  It’s not just putting people out of poverty, it is helping the rich world also grow richer. 

    There’s no question that whenever you have technological changes or when you are getting rid of trade barriers, that some sectors and some industries and the people working there will be negatively affected.  And on that our recommendation has always been and continues to be, and this has to be a continuous focus when you’re looking at the transformation which will be triggered by technological progress and artificial intelligence in particular, to make sure that the people have a social safety net to fall into.  It’s one part. 

    But then also, and that is as important, and that needs to be strengthened, to upskill skills of the labor force so that they find jobs in growing new dynamic sectors.  And that has to be a focus.  If I see one model which works and worked very well in the global economy, it’s the Flexicurity program in Denmark, which allows workers to move to jobs quickly, including getting the reskilling and upskilling.  And I think that needs to be the focus. 

    But it’s very clear we need to take care of those who are displaced and who are losing their jobs.  And we know how to do this, but it needs to be done. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you.  We’re going to go to the first row here, please. 

    QUESTIONER:  Thank you.  In the context of European and European market integration, do you see that it’s possible Bulgaria to become next member of the euro area in the next year?  Thank you. 

    MR. KAMMER: The answer is definitely yes.  But Helge, you may want to elaborate. 

    MR. BERGER: Thanks for the setup.  So, yes, we’re following this closely, of course.  I think it’s clear that Bulgaria has made major progress towards fulfilling the conditions for the access to the eurozone.  We have seen deficits in line with the EU fiscal framework of 3 percent.  We have seen inflation coming down.  So, the next step is for the European authorities to speak to this, the European Commission, the ECB, will speak to accession and then we expect the process to continue.

    From our end, this would be a welcome step for the country.  EU accession, sorry, euro accession means lower trading costs, more beneficial environment for the FDI flows, and so on.  So, there’s, there are a lot of upsides for the country, but of course it should enter strongly, just as strongly as it has performed in the last few years.  That means sort of taking care of fiscal policy, remain prudent, have an open eye on any financial sector risks that could come, including from accession, and last, not least, sort of work to complete the structural form agenda that the government has.  You know, you want to enter the euro, but you want to enter it on a strong footing. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you.  We’re going to go online now.  Olena, please unmute yourself.

    QUESTIONER:  Hi, everyone.  I have a question related to Europe.  Although you mentioned that increased defense spending is an upside risk, do you think that trade wars and tariffs can undermine its role for growth on European continent?  And if we compare, how do you evaluate the implementation of your policy recommendations by Europe comparing to the previous outlook? 

    MR. KAMMER: Sorry, I didn’t get the last part. 

    QUESTIONER:  How do you evaluate the implementing of policy recommendations in Europe comparing to your previous outlook? 

    MR. KAMMER: Okay, good.  So, clearly tariffs do have an impact and the longer they last, the more pronounced the impact will be, including on the medium-term outlook.  And therefore, our call on talking in terms of de-escalating and negotiating agreements, but also in general the idea of trade matters and more trade is better to look for new opportunities to lower trade barriers. 

    When it comes to our recommendations with regard to Europe, I would say on the macroeconomic front, both on the monetary policy side and also on the fiscal policy side, the right steps were taken, and the right steps are being implemented.  And clearly, on the monetary policy side, they are already showing the results.  Monetary policy, again, showed that it works in order to bring inflation down.  That was doubted at one point in time over the last few years.

    Where we seem to be repeating our policy recommendations is under EU reforms and also under structural reform sides.  And those reform areas are more difficult to tackle.  They are facing political economy considerations and resistance.  And so, clearly what we are happy about is that there is a shared diagnostic and there is a shared understanding of the policy solutions. 

    And I could tell you in our discussion with the European policymakers during these meetings, that is the case.  They all agree on the diagnostics and they all agree also on what needs to be done on the policy solution side.  And what we discussed was, so how to actually do it.  There’s willingness to do it, but it is some of the things are technical.  But there’s a lot of resistance, of course, from certain sectors and in certain countries towards change.  And what one needs to consider is maybe have a bigger approach to that and to start not discussing and negotiating just individual areas of reform where you have perceived winners and losers, but to think about more of a package deal where everybody can see something which is a win situation, and they need to make compromise on other parts. 

    I think on our side, what we are trying to do in messaging, it is very little understood, and it’s not really communicated by policymakers and politicians of the huge value an integrated single market is created for Europe.  You usually hear a point towards net contribution to a very small European budget, which is 1 percent of European GDP.  That is just a rounding mistake in the bigger scheme of things, of what wealth that single market already has created for all of the member countries and what it can create in the future by deepening this market.  And I think that is something where we are trying to help policymakers with, to change that narrative that Europe is a burden.  No.  Europe is a winner for all the 27 countries which are participating in the European Union.  And I think that’s an important message to make. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you.  We’re running out of time, so we’ll take one or two more questions.  We’re going to go with the gentleman on the fifth row, please. 

    QUESTIONER:  Thanks.  I have two questions.  One is, could you a little bit elaborate more on your policy advice?  For example, in Austria we have a big debate about should wage costs go down in order to bring back industry.  But if I’m correct, I hear that you see more potential in kind of a stronger integration in Europe. 

    And my second question is, I was just at the Peterson Institute where they said basically that this 10 percent appreciation of the euro versus the dollar is more or less equivalent to the 20 percent additional tax.  So what was your assumption on the exchange rate of the dollar and the euro?  And is there a danger that this might lead to more trouble if the dollar keeps getting weaker?  Thanks.

    MR. KAMMER: Mm-hmm.  Oya, do you want to take this question? 

    MS. CELASUN: Sure.  On the Austrian side, basically what we have, we’ve recently concluded a consultation with Austria and the reforms that we found to be the most important ones were to lift female and elderly labor force participation because Austria, like others, is aging rapidly.  And for that, childcare and elder care availability and access are very important.  Also, Austria is yet another country where we would see a strong push, we would like to see a strong push for European integration.  Especially the regulatory growth financing environment for startups need to be bolstered and that those require, in our view, reforms at the European level. 

    On the second side, I don’t think I caught everything. 

    MR. KAMMER: Okay.  So, on the euro, first of all, we shouldn’t translate swings and volatility into long-term trends.  We need to be careful about that.  But, of course, the exchange rate will have an impact on Europe, including on the inflation outlook, if persistent.  But what I would point towards is, there is a narrative out there that Europe is not competitive.  And that narrative is actually wrong.  Europe is competitive.  Europe has a current account surplus versus the rest of the world.  What we are arguing is that Europe has a gap in its productivity and in particular a gap in labor productivity.  And it is that to focus on in order to actually create more income.  And that’s the important stuff. 

    Now, how to deal with changes in the external environment.  The key message to Europe for that is external shocks are going to persist.  Transformations will have to take place because technology is moving, energy security needs to be established.  The green transition is a key policy priority for Europe.  And for that we need a more dynamic business sector.  And we don’t have that in Europe.  When you’re looking at startups in particular, it’s not that Europe doesn’t have the capacity to innovate, it does.  Does Europe have the startups?  Europe has the startups.  But we don’t have the environment for these startups to flourish.  They don’t need bank loans, bank loans need collateral.  And many of the startups are in the intellectual sphere in terms of what they’re providing.  And so, what you need for that is risk capital, equity and venture capital for those startups to move forward.  Many will die, but there will be winners, and they need to scale up.  And for that you need to have this risk capital.  And what happens right now is they’re going to the U.S. for that.  And that’s one part of the business dynamism which is actually taken away from Europe because companies cannot scale up.  We have these internal barriers. 

    And companies cannot scale up because we have the financial barriers.  And the financial barriers are, in Europe, we don’t have deep capital markets which can provide debt risk capital to these young startups.  We have an abundance of small and medium-sized enterprises in Europe and when you’re looking at comparison to the U.S. these small and medium term and medium sized enterprises, they are old, and their productivity is not that high.  But the young spectrum is missing.  And when we have successes, then you need to for these success stories to have the market to operate in and scale up.  We don’t yet.  And you need the capital for those companies to grow to scale.  And again, many of these companies who reach that state, they list at the New York Stock Exchange because European capital markets are too small. 

    So, if I point towards a big issue in order to address many of the problems we are seeing in the future, it must be a more dynamic business sector, including more exit of firms which are not viable. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you so much.  I’m afraid we’re going to have to leave it here, but please do come to us bilaterally for the questions we couldn’t take.  I would like to thank our speakers and thank you here, joining us, and colleagues joining us online with this.  We can wrap it up.  Have a good day everyone. 

    MR. KAMMER: Thank you. 

    *  *  *  *  *

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Camila Perez

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/25/tr-04252025-eur-press-briefing-transcript

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Press Briefing Transcript: European Department, Spring Meetings 2025

    Source: International Monetary Fund

    April 25, 2025

    PARTICIPANTS:

     MR. HELGE BERGER, Deputy Director, European Department, IMF

     MS. OYA CELASUN, Deputy Director, European Department, IMF

     MR. ALFRED KAMMER, Director, European Department, IMF

    MODERATOR: 

    MS. CAMILA PEREZ, Senior Communications Officer, IMF

    *  *  *  *  *

    P R O C E E D I N G S

    (10:00 a.m.)

    MS. PEREZ: Hi everyone.  Thank you so much for joining today’s press conference on the European Economic Outlook.  I’m Camila Perez.  I’m a Communications Officer with the IMF.  We’re pleased to be joined today by Alfred Kammer, sitting next to me, Director of the European Department here at the IMF.  Also, with us we’ve got Oya Celasun and Helge Berger, both Deputy Directors of the Department. 

    We’ll begin as usual with some opening remarks from Alfred, and then we’ll take your questions.  I see some colleagues joining online, so we will also go to your questions online.  Alfred, over to you. 

    MR. KAMMER: Welcome to this press conference on Europe. I have posted my opening remarks and also circulated.  You should have them.  So, I will just make a few points for emphasis. 

    First of all, in terms of the outlook, we have had a meaningful downgrade for Europe that reflects the impact of tariffs, partially compensated by an increase in infrastructure spending and defense spending, in particular from Germany.  But the biggest impact is coming from uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.  The impact is different for the Euro area versus CESEE (Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe).  CESEE is more affected as it has a larger manufacturing sector and is more exposed to tariffs. 

    Second point to make is when we are looking at the medium term, we see rather weak growth, and that has not changed from our previous outlook.  And that is a clear result of a large productivity gap Europe has to the global economy.  And that is something which clearly needs to be fixed.  We were talking about internal barriers; we are talking about financial barriers which need to be overcome.  So that’s part of the medium-term growth story, and that is something for the policy part. 

    On the policy recommendations, first, our recommendation is more trade is better and therefore we are very encouraged that the European Union is continuing to move forward on trade agreements.  Those who have been — which have been negotiated, they should be brought to a conclusion. 

    The second policy advice is on the monetary side.  In the Euro area, we had success in the disinflation effort.  We are forecasting now that we hit the target in the second half of 2025.  What does that mean for ECB monetary policy?  One more cut in the summer of 25 basis points and then keep the rate on hold at 2 percent until — unless major shocks ask for a recalibration of that monetary stance.  A bit different in CESEE, where inflation is more persistent and still higher, and there needs to be taken more caution in terms of the easing part.

    On fiscal consolidation, fiscal consolidation should continue.  Europe needs to build up buffers for the next shock.  But also, Europe needs to build fiscal space for long-term spending pressures, which we have on aging, health care, the energy transition, and of course, now an accelerated need is on defense spending. 

    Final point, focus needs to be on structural reforms.  In Europe, we have been making suggestions on reforms which could be taken at the EU level.  Draghi Letta, we have a shared diagnostic.  We also have an understanding of the policy solutions.  These reforms should be undertaken with urgency.  We selected a number of key reforms which are under discussion.  If we are looking at the benefit of the implementation, it would add 3 percent to the level of GDP in Europe.  So, these reforms need to be pushed forward with urgency. 

    There’s also a need for national structural reforms.  There’s lots of benefit to those.  Priority in Europe actually is on the labor market side, including on upskilling and reskilling of workers.  We put together, country by country, a set of priority reform areas.  If countries actually close the gap to the best-performing countries, best-practice countries in these areas by only 50 percent, it would give a boost to the level of GDP by 5 percent for advanced European countries, by 6 to 7 percent for CESEE countries and for the Western Balkan countries, the number is 9 percent increase in GDP.  So, the reform areas are discussed, the reform areas are agreed.  What now needs to happen is the political will, and that is not easy to overcome vested interests, but it needs to be done because this is to secure the future of Europe.  Thank you. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thanks so much, Alfred. We can now start with your questions.  We will go to the room.  Please raise your hand when called, identify yourself, name, and outlet.  We’re going to get started with the lady sitting here.  Thank you.  First row. 

    QUESTIONER: Hi, good morning.  Thank you for taking my question.  So, in recent weeks financial market has shown increasing pressure on U.S. Treasury while demand on the European debt appears to be rising.  Do you believe this shift represents a sustainable trend?  And more broadly, do you think that what some have termed European exceptionalism could eventually supplant the American exceptionalism in the global economic and financial order?  Thank you. 

    MR. KAMMER: First, to move to European exceptionalism. It’s still a long and hard road away, and it starts with utilizing the single market in order to create the productivity gains necessary actually to create markets to scale and to create financing to scale so that we get a dynamic business sector going.  And that is a must, which needs to be done in order to increase growth, and also, given all of the spending needs coming to secure the European welfare state. 

    On your other question, we should not overinterpret the shifts which have taken place on the portfolio side over the last few weeks.  When markets are adjusting, you would expect rebalancing to take place.  At this stage, way too early to say whether there has been a structural shift. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you, Alfred. We’re going to go now to the gentleman in the fourth row with the blue jacket, please. 

    QUESTIONER: Mr. Kammer, Germany has been very praised here during the Spring Meetings for its new fiscal stimulus package.  But in Germany we have a little bit of different discussion.  A lot of economists criticize the lack of structural reforms in Germany.  Do you have already a first assessment of how the fiscal stimulus package could boost the weak German potential growth?  And do you think that the expenditures are in line with the EU fiscal rules, or must the EU fiscal rules be reformed again so that Germany just can spend the money in the end?  Thanks.

    MR. KAMMER: On your first question, yes, we do. And I hand over to Oya. 

    MS. CELASUN: Thank you very much. So, you’re asking how the fiscal stimulus will impact the German economy and how it fits in with the broader structural reform agenda.  So, it will bring some — blow some energy into the economy after several years of weak growth.  We don’t expect the ramp-up in expenditures to be very quick.  We expect the peak effect in 2026.  Basically in ’25, it will bring some partial offset to the increased drags we are seeing from the trade side from global uncertainty, weak consumer and business confidence.  But as we move into 2026 and 2027, it will be a dominant factor offsetting the expected ongoing drag from trade tensions.  So, it will certainly lift aggregate demand. 

    And the part on infrastructure spending is very welcome.  For years we’ve pointed to deficient public infrastructure as a factor holding back growth in Germany.  So not only will it help growth in the near-term through aggregate demand, but it should have, if fully spent, it should have an effect on lifting potential growth in the long-term as well.  It is one of the important areas we see for lifting potential growth as Germany moves into a period with weak growth in its workforce — in fact, a sharp contraction in the coming five years.  So that’s very welcome.  But there are other important areas.  One of them is cutting red tape, actually important for lifting public infrastructure spending as well.  It’s important for Germany to be a leader in pushing European integration and also deal with its shrinking labor force by helping women work full-time.  Thanks. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thanks, Oya. We’re —

    QUESTIONER: [off mic]

    MS. CELASUN: So maybe the important thing to mention is that Germany has fiscal space, it has low debt, it has low deficits, it has low borrowing costs. So that’s very important.  We, our own forecasts suggest that Germany, once you exclude defense spending of about 1.5 percent of GDP relative to 2021, will keep its deficits below 3 percent.  Thank you. 

    MS. PEREZ: We’re going to go now to the center. Gentlemen on the second row.  Thank. 

    QUESTIONER: Thank you.  In the updated World Economic Outlook, the IMF downgraded its projection for Ukraine up to 2 percent this year compared with the November forecast, which was 2.5-3.5 percent.  Could you please elaborate on the aspects that have affected the current forecast?  What share of this is due to the global and regional slowdown, domestic factors, war, or external support?  And secondly, may I ask you to comment on the issue of debt restructuring for Ukraine?  Do you have communication with the Ukrainian government on this, and how do you evaluate the risks for Ukraine if they couldn’t reach a deal on this issue?  Thank you.

    MS. PEREZ: Let me see if there’s any other questions on Ukraine. The lady in the third row.  Thank you.

    QUESTIONER: I also want to ask you about the crisis and there are — have many — many different cases, many countries have had their debt written off.  And do you recommend the creditors write off part of Ukraine’s debt, and is this option being considered now?  Thank you.

    MR. KAMMER: So, let me start with a question on growth first. What we are seeing is lower growth momentum carrying forward from 2024.  That is a reflection of the bombing of the energy infrastructure and that is hampering the economy.  It’s also reflecting a very tight labor market and it’s reflecting continued uncertainty of the length of the war and how the war will evolve and affect the economy.  And that is clearly weighing on growth in 2025. 

    I should say, of course, and emphasize again that the Ukraine economic team, Minister of Finance, Central Bank Governor are doing an extraordinary job to maintain macro stability under these conditions and also to prepare the economy for a post-war reconstruction period.  And important for that is the need to work on the medium-term national revenue strategy because Ukraine will need revenue in order to provide all of the necessary service of a modern state and their support the reconstruction.  So, I think that’s very important.  But praise again for the economic team to operate and attain macro stability in this difficult situation. 

    On the debt part, what we are seeing is that there is a credible process underway with private creditors that is proceeding, and that is an important element of the Fund program.  So that in the end, under the Fund program, we are going to see that sustainability in Ukraine emerging. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you. We’re going to go to this side of the room.  The lady in the second row.  Thank you.

    QUESTIONER: Hi, good morning.  A question on the UK.  There’s a lot of speculation in the UK about a potential trade deal with the U.S.  Will it make any difference to growth?  And our finance minister was on the radio this morning saying our trading relationship with Europe was arguably even more important because they’re nearer to us.  Do you agree with that?

    MR. KAMMER: Helge?

    MR. BERGER: We agree with everybody who concludes that more trade is better than less trade. We understand that trade has been sort of in the past and will be in the future, I’m sure, an engine for growth and productivity improvements. So, in that spirit, sort of any trade agreements that the UK will be concluding with any country going forward that will improve sort of the trading relationships that they already have are very welcome.  And we would generally encourage all countries to follow this path. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you. We’re going to go.  The gentleman in the second row. 

    QUESTIONER: Hi. I was just wondering, during the meetings this week, there seem to be differing opinions among European leaders about the prospects of a trade deal with the United States.  The French saying they think perhaps a deal might be some way off.  The Germans expressing more optimism.  I just wondered from your vantage point how important you think it is that a deal be done for growth for the European Union and for Europe more broadly.  Thank you. 

    MR. KAMMER: Yeah, so clearly our message is more trade is better. Trade tensions are bad for growth.  And so, we are encouraging to have constructive negotiations.  And the U.S. is a large trading partner of the European Union, so we are hoping that there will be successful negotiations taking place.  And in our discussions with European leaders, I don’t sense any difference of views with regard to the importance of that relationship and that an effort needs to be made to de-escalate and to negotiate a deal. 

    MS. PEREZ: We’re going to go online now. Go ahead please.  You can unmute yourself. 

    QUESTIONER: Good morning.  Thank you so much.  Trade between Russia and Europe has shrunk dramatically due to sanctions and counter-sanctions.  How does the IMF characterize the current state of Russia-Europe trade flows?  Are we essentially seeing a permanent decoupling of the Russian economy from its European trading partners, or are there still significant economic interactions that could influence the outlook?  Moreover, what does the IMF foresee for the future of these trade relations?  Is any normalization expected within the forecast horizon, taking into account U.S. tariffs, or will they remain at minimal levels?  Thank you. 

    MR. KAMMER: So, it would be speculative on my side to pronounce on what the future will bring with regard to the European Russian relations. Fact is that there has been a decoupling taking place, or trade has been reduced quite considerably. And Russia, in response, has increased domestic production, import substitution, and reoriented trade relations, in particular to China and India.  So that has taken place.  When we are looking at the Russian economy, what we are seeing is a quite sharp slowdown this year from last year’s growth, and that shows the strain the war is imposing on the Russian economy.  Importantly, what we see is if this isolation of Russia is going to continue, it will impact, of course, on the transfer of technology.  And we are forecasting that potential growth in Russia has fallen significantly to 1.2 percent.  And with such a potential growth rate, it will not converge to Western European living standards.  Thank you. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thanks. We’re going to go with the first row.  The gentleman in the jacket, please. 

    QUESTIONER: Thank you.  Italy’s growth forecast was cut in half, almost from 0.7 to 0.4.  Was it just on account of trade or for other factors?  And if you have any policy recommendation for the government.  And also, another question on the ECB, you are recommending that they cut 2 percent.  Most economists expect the rate to go down below 2 percent.  Are you suggesting they should stay at that level.

    MR. KAMMER: Yeah, maybe I’ll start with the ECB question, and Helge can take the question on the growth performance of Italy. So, what we are seeing is that inflation is coming down as expected. The uncertainty at this stage is at the wage side.  But here we also see a slowdown, and we are expecting wages to converge to projections by the end of this year.  And the bottom line of this is that we expect that the inflation target of 2 percent will be sustainably met in the second half of 2025.  We will see that headline inflation may be a bit below and that reflects the impact of lower energy prices.  We will see that core inflation may stay a bit above 2.  The bottom line on our side is we are looking at a monetary policy stance which will maintain sustainably this inflation rate at 2 percent.  And we are seeing that can be achieved with another 25-basis point cut and then hold at 2 percent.  We don’t see a need for going lower than 2 percent. 

    This, of course, is subject to major shocks affecting the monetary policy stance in the future.  We should not forget.  And we are emphasizing major shocks because the impact on monetary policy on inflation is not going to become evident within the first 18 months.  So, this is a long-term endeavor whenever you are changing the monetary stance.

    MS. PEREZ: Helge. 

    MR. BERGER: Italy.  So, thanks for the question.  The downgrade as in 2025, this year, 2.4 from 0.7, and next year from 0.9 to 0.8, is roughly in line what we have seen in other countries.  So, there are two factors at play.  One is the trade tensions.  They have a direct element, so there’s an exposure to tariffs.  But there’s also trade uncertainty.  And this uncertainty has also left its marks on financial conditions which have tightened.  So, all these factors sort of slow down growth. 

    In ’26, the downgrade is a bit lower because some of these effects are less urgent.  But we also do have some countervailing factors such as the NRP public investment surging as the program comes to an end.  And that’s something we welcome.  The government is making good progress in this area, and we like the public investment and reforms attached to it.  It is also clear that after ’26, when this program is over, there is an opportunity to ramp up domestic structural reforms.  The country has a comprehensive agenda which we encourage it to continue on.  That includes reforms in education and upskilling, includes business environment reforms.  And finally, labor market participation is a perennial issue in Italy, as we heard.  It’s also an issue in other countries, but I think Italy is part of this. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you.  We’re going to go towards the back of the room.  The lady in the light green jacket, please. 

    QUESTIONER:  Thank you.  I would like to ask about Turkish economy.  In the World Economic Outlook report, unlike most countries, we see a slight upward revision in Türkiye’s growth forecast this year.  And the country’s economic growth is also projected to accelerate next year.  How do you assess the current state of Turkish economy?  Also, how does the IMF view the country’s progress in controlling inflation? 

    MR. KAMMER: Yeah, so what we are seeing under growth performance is to some extent a carryover from a very strong momentum in the second half of 2024.  And that led to a growth upgrade, a small one, but compensating.  And that is important for the negative impact of tariffs and uncertainty on the outlook. 

    With regard to the government’s disinflation program that is moving forward.  The economic team is implementing disinflation program.  Our recommendation remains, disinflation should happen faster and that requires a tighter macroeconomic policy mix.  And the linchpin of that needs to be tighter fiscal policy.  And why do we advocate that?  The longer the disinflation effort is dragging out the longer the time of vulnerability and being hit by shocks which we don’t know yet to even think about it.  So, disinflation program accelerate linchpin is tied to fiscal policy. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you.  We’re going to go with the gentleman on the fifth row.  Thank you. 

    QUESTIONER:  Good afternoon.  Mr. Kammer, you strongly advocate trade agreements between Europe and other countries.  As you well know, France is quite reluctant to sign the Mercosur Agreement.  The whole political spectrum is very reluctant, saying that there are issues on farming and environment.  What would you say to convince France and other maybe reluctant countries to sign this Mercosur Agreement? 

    MR. KAMMER: Yeah, I would say first, it’s not just Mercosur.  Mercosur is one aspect.  There are other trade agreements in place.  And when you’re looking at the success of technology and of trade in terms of lifting up living standards globally, is just immense.  It’s not just putting people out of poverty, it is helping the rich world also grow richer. 

    There’s no question that whenever you have technological changes or when you are getting rid of trade barriers, that some sectors and some industries and the people working there will be negatively affected.  And on that our recommendation has always been and continues to be, and this has to be a continuous focus when you’re looking at the transformation which will be triggered by technological progress and artificial intelligence in particular, to make sure that the people have a social safety net to fall into.  It’s one part. 

    But then also, and that is as important, and that needs to be strengthened, to upskill skills of the labor force so that they find jobs in growing new dynamic sectors.  And that has to be a focus.  If I see one model which works and worked very well in the global economy, it’s the Flexicurity program in Denmark, which allows workers to move to jobs quickly, including getting the reskilling and upskilling.  And I think that needs to be the focus. 

    But it’s very clear we need to take care of those who are displaced and who are losing their jobs.  And we know how to do this, but it needs to be done. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you.  We’re going to go to the first row here, please. 

    QUESTIONER:  Thank you.  In the context of European and European market integration, do you see that it’s possible Bulgaria to become next member of the euro area in the next year?  Thank you. 

    MR. KAMMER: The answer is definitely yes.  But Helge, you may want to elaborate. 

    MR. BERGER: Thanks for the setup.  So, yes, we’re following this closely, of course.  I think it’s clear that Bulgaria has made major progress towards fulfilling the conditions for the access to the eurozone.  We have seen deficits in line with the EU fiscal framework of 3 percent.  We have seen inflation coming down.  So, the next step is for the European authorities to speak to this, the European Commission, the ECB, will speak to accession and then we expect the process to continue.

    From our end, this would be a welcome step for the country.  EU accession, sorry, euro accession means lower trading costs, more beneficial environment for the FDI flows, and so on.  So, there’s, there are a lot of upsides for the country, but of course it should enter strongly, just as strongly as it has performed in the last few years.  That means sort of taking care of fiscal policy, remain prudent, have an open eye on any financial sector risks that could come, including from accession, and last, not least, sort of work to complete the structural form agenda that the government has.  You know, you want to enter the euro, but you want to enter it on a strong footing. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you.  We’re going to go online now.  Olena, please unmute yourself.

    QUESTIONER:  Hi, everyone.  I have a question related to Europe.  Although you mentioned that increased defense spending is an upside risk, do you think that trade wars and tariffs can undermine its role for growth on European continent?  And if we compare, how do you evaluate the implementation of your policy recommendations by Europe comparing to the previous outlook? 

    MR. KAMMER: Sorry, I didn’t get the last part. 

    QUESTIONER:  How do you evaluate the implementing of policy recommendations in Europe comparing to your previous outlook? 

    MR. KAMMER: Okay, good.  So, clearly tariffs do have an impact and the longer they last, the more pronounced the impact will be, including on the medium-term outlook.  And therefore, our call on talking in terms of de-escalating and negotiating agreements, but also in general the idea of trade matters and more trade is better to look for new opportunities to lower trade barriers. 

    When it comes to our recommendations with regard to Europe, I would say on the macroeconomic front, both on the monetary policy side and also on the fiscal policy side, the right steps were taken, and the right steps are being implemented.  And clearly, on the monetary policy side, they are already showing the results.  Monetary policy, again, showed that it works in order to bring inflation down.  That was doubted at one point in time over the last few years.

    Where we seem to be repeating our policy recommendations is under EU reforms and also under structural reform sides.  And those reform areas are more difficult to tackle.  They are facing political economy considerations and resistance.  And so, clearly what we are happy about is that there is a shared diagnostic and there is a shared understanding of the policy solutions. 

    And I could tell you in our discussion with the European policymakers during these meetings, that is the case.  They all agree on the diagnostics and they all agree also on what needs to be done on the policy solution side.  And what we discussed was, so how to actually do it.  There’s willingness to do it, but it is some of the things are technical.  But there’s a lot of resistance, of course, from certain sectors and in certain countries towards change.  And what one needs to consider is maybe have a bigger approach to that and to start not discussing and negotiating just individual areas of reform where you have perceived winners and losers, but to think about more of a package deal where everybody can see something which is a win situation, and they need to make compromise on other parts. 

    I think on our side, what we are trying to do in messaging, it is very little understood, and it’s not really communicated by policymakers and politicians of the huge value an integrated single market is created for Europe.  You usually hear a point towards net contribution to a very small European budget, which is 1 percent of European GDP.  That is just a rounding mistake in the bigger scheme of things, of what wealth that single market already has created for all of the member countries and what it can create in the future by deepening this market.  And I think that is something where we are trying to help policymakers with, to change that narrative that Europe is a burden.  No.  Europe is a winner for all the 27 countries which are participating in the European Union.  And I think that’s an important message to make. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you.  We’re running out of time, so we’ll take one or two more questions.  We’re going to go with the gentleman on the fifth row, please. 

    QUESTIONER:  Thanks.  I have two questions.  One is, could you a little bit elaborate more on your policy advice?  For example, in Austria we have a big debate about should wage costs go down in order to bring back industry.  But if I’m correct, I hear that you see more potential in kind of a stronger integration in Europe. 

    And my second question is, I was just at the Peterson Institute where they said basically that this 10 percent appreciation of the euro versus the dollar is more or less equivalent to the 20 percent additional tax.  So what was your assumption on the exchange rate of the dollar and the euro?  And is there a danger that this might lead to more trouble if the dollar keeps getting weaker?  Thanks.

    MR. KAMMER: Mm-hmm.  Oya, do you want to take this question? 

    MS. CELASUN: Sure.  On the Austrian side, basically what we have, we’ve recently concluded a consultation with Austria and the reforms that we found to be the most important ones were to lift female and elderly labor force participation because Austria, like others, is aging rapidly.  And for that, childcare and elder care availability and access are very important.  Also, Austria is yet another country where we would see a strong push, we would like to see a strong push for European integration.  Especially the regulatory growth financing environment for startups need to be bolstered and that those require, in our view, reforms at the European level. 

    On the second side, I don’t think I caught everything. 

    MR. KAMMER: Okay.  So, on the euro, first of all, we shouldn’t translate swings and volatility into long-term trends.  We need to be careful about that.  But, of course, the exchange rate will have an impact on Europe, including on the inflation outlook, if persistent.  But what I would point towards is, there is a narrative out there that Europe is not competitive.  And that narrative is actually wrong.  Europe is competitive.  Europe has a current account surplus versus the rest of the world.  What we are arguing is that Europe has a gap in its productivity and in particular a gap in labor productivity.  And it is that to focus on in order to actually create more income.  And that’s the important stuff. 

    Now, how to deal with changes in the external environment.  The key message to Europe for that is external shocks are going to persist.  Transformations will have to take place because technology is moving, energy security needs to be established.  The green transition is a key policy priority for Europe.  And for that we need a more dynamic business sector.  And we don’t have that in Europe.  When you’re looking at startups in particular, it’s not that Europe doesn’t have the capacity to innovate, it does.  Does Europe have the startups?  Europe has the startups.  But we don’t have the environment for these startups to flourish.  They don’t need bank loans, bank loans need collateral.  And many of the startups are in the intellectual sphere in terms of what they’re providing.  And so, what you need for that is risk capital, equity and venture capital for those startups to move forward.  Many will die, but there will be winners, and they need to scale up.  And for that you need to have this risk capital.  And what happens right now is they’re going to the U.S. for that.  And that’s one part of the business dynamism which is actually taken away from Europe because companies cannot scale up.  We have these internal barriers. 

    And companies cannot scale up because we have the financial barriers.  And the financial barriers are, in Europe, we don’t have deep capital markets which can provide debt risk capital to these young startups.  We have an abundance of small and medium-sized enterprises in Europe and when you’re looking at comparison to the U.S. these small and medium term and medium sized enterprises, they are old, and their productivity is not that high.  But the young spectrum is missing.  And when we have successes, then you need to for these success stories to have the market to operate in and scale up.  We don’t yet.  And you need the capital for those companies to grow to scale.  And again, many of these companies who reach that state, they list at the New York Stock Exchange because European capital markets are too small. 

    So, if I point towards a big issue in order to address many of the problems we are seeing in the future, it must be a more dynamic business sector, including more exit of firms which are not viable. 

    MS. PEREZ: Thank you so much.  I’m afraid we’re going to have to leave it here, but please do come to us bilaterally for the questions we couldn’t take.  I would like to thank our speakers and thank you here, joining us, and colleagues joining us online with this.  We can wrap it up.  Have a good day everyone. 

    MR. KAMMER: Thank you. 

    *  *  *  *  *

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Camila Perez

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Press Briefing Transcript: African Department, Spring Meetings 2025

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    April 25, 2025

    PARTICIPANTS:

    Speaker: ABEBE AEMRO SELASSIE, Director, African Department, IMF

    Moderator: KWABENA AKUAMOAH-BOATENG, Communications Officer, IMF

    *  *  *  *  *

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening to all of you here in the room and those joining us online. My name is Kwabena Akuamoah-Boateng.  I am with the Communications Department of the IMF, and

    I will be your moderator for today. 

    Welcome to today’s press briefing on the Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. I am pleased to introduce Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director of the IMF’s African Department.  Abebe will share key insights from our new report titled Recovery Interrupted

    But before I turn to Abebe, a reminder that we have simultaneous interpretation in French and Portuguese, both online and in the room.  And the materials for this press briefing, the report, are all available online at IMF.org/Africa. Abebe, the floor is yours.

    MR. SELASSIE: Good morning and good afternoon to colleagues joining us from the region and beyond. Thank you for being here today for the release of our April Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa.

    Six months ago, I highlighted our region’s sluggish growth, and the steep political and social hurdles governments had to overcome to push through essential reforms.  Today, that fragile recovery faces a new test: the surge of global policy uncertainty so profound it is reshaping the region’s growth trajectory.

    Just when policy efforts began to bear fruit, with regional growth exceeding expectations in 2024, the region’s hard-won recovery has been overtaken by a sudden realignment of global priorities, casting a shadow over the outlook.  We now expect growth in Sub-Saharan Africa to ease to 3.8 percent in 2025 and 4.2 percent in 2026, marked down from our October projections, and these have been driven largely by difficult external conditions: weaker demand abroad, softer commodity prices, and tighter financial markets.

    Any further increase in trade tensions or tightening of financial conditions in advanced economies could further dampen regional confidence, raise borrowing costs further, and delay investment.  Meanwhile, official development assistance to Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to decline further, placing extra strain on the most vulnerable population.

    These external headwinds come on top of longer-standing vulnerabilities. High debt levels constrain the ability of many countries to finance essential services and development priorities.  While inflationary pressures have moderated at the regional level, quite a few countries are still grappling with elevated inflation, necessitating a tighter monetary stance and careful fiscal policy.

    Against this challenging backdrop, our report underscores the importance of calibrating policies to balance growth, social development, and macroeconomic stability.  Building robust fiscal and external buffers is more important than ever, underpinned by credibility and consistency in policymaking.

    In particular, there is a premium on policies to strengthen resilience: mobilize domestic revenue, improve spending efficiency, and strengthen public finance management and fiscal framework and fiscal frameworks to lower borrowing costs.  Reforms that enhance growth, improve the business climate, and foster regional trade integration are also needed to lay the groundwork for private sector-led growth.  High growth is imperative to engender the millions of jobs our region needs. 

    A strong, stable, and prosperous Sub-Saharan Africa is important for its people but also the world.  It is the region that will be the main source of labor and incremental investment and consumption demand in the decades to come.  External support as the region goes through its demographic transition is of tremendous strategic importance for the future of our planet. 

    The Fund is doing its part to help, having dispersed over $65 billion since 2020 and more than $8 billion just over the last year.  Our policy advice and capacity development efforts support more countries still. 

    Thank you and I’m happy to answer your questions. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: Thank you, Abebe. Before we turn to you for your questions, a couple of ground rules, please. If you want to ask a question, raise your hand, and we’ll come to you.  Identify yourself and your organization and please limit it to one question.  For those online, you can use the chat function, or you can also raise your hand, and then we’ll come to you.  I will start from my right. 

    QUESTIONER: Good morning.  Thank you for taking my question.  You mentioned several things in your report.  The recovery that is going on the continent as well as some of the challenges that the continent is facing and the dividends that the continent currently has in its youth.  Leaders on the continent are working — I was at an event yesterday where they are looking at ways to raise funds to develop projects.  So, what is your recommendation for projects?  We’re seeing a need for projects like this as well as revenue mobilization on the continent.  So, is your recommendation to leaders on the continent on how to source these funds that are needed, given that some of the advanced economies are cutting back? 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: All right, any related questions before we go to Abebe?

    QUESTIONER: Abebe, you just made the point that the recovery has been hit by these uncertainties.  Beyond just policy direction, is there any scope to do anything in terms of, for example, maybe you dispense some money though, but maybe a little more to expect — to countries that are coming off defaults and what have you to help in this recovery, even at such a time?  This is also aided by, beyond the fact that some are coming, they have no buffers whatsoever.  And then, coming from defaults, things become very difficult for some of these countries to even have the money to do this.  Could there be any extra funding, even if on a regional level, to back the policy prescriptions that you have proposed? 

    MR. SELASSIE: I think there’s two different points here. The first one is more of a broader meta point, whether financing is the only constraint that is hindering more investment, more robust economic activity, and job creation. Of course, financing plays a role, but it is not the only constraint. It depends on country-to-country circumstances, what sectors we are talking about.  But it really is important to recognize that there are many other things that can be done to engender higher growth to facilitate more investment. 

    One of the issues that we have seen in our region over the years is that a lot of growth has –in many countries– been driven by public spending and public investment for many years.  That, of course, has made a major contribution.  It has facilitated all the investment that we have seen in infrastructure, building schools, building clinics.  So, that has a role to play. But I would say that going forward it will be as important to see if we can find ways in which the private sector is the main engine of growth. So, there are reforms that can be done to facilitate this growth. 

    The second one I am sensing from both your questions is about the circumstance right now where a combination of cuts in aid [and] tighter financing conditions are causing dislocation [and difficulties for governments. We have been, more than anybody else, stressing just what a difficult environment our governments have been facing.  We have been talking about the brutal funding squeeze that countries are under.  It has ebbed a little bit and flowed, you know, like the external market conditions, for example. There have been periods when they have been opened and some of our market access countries have been able to borrow, and then other periods where they have been closed, and we are going through one right now.  And this is on top of the cuts in aid that we have seen and tighter domestic financing conditions.  

    When this more cyclical point is playing out, I think it’s important for countries to be a bit more measured in how they are seeking to tackle their development needs.  So, maybe it means a bit more relying on domestic revenue mobilization, expenditure prioritization when conditions are particularly difficult as they are now, and, as I said earlier, going back to see what can be done to find ways to engender growth over the medium-term.  But it is a difficult period, as we note in our report, and one that is causing quite a bit of dislocation to our countries. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: I will come to the middle. The lady in the front.

    QUESTIONER: My first question is around recovery, of course, your reports are called “interrupted”.  So, with recovery slipping, growth downgraded, debt pressures mountain, is Sub-Saharan Africa at risk of another lost decade?  Because in your report you mentioned that the last four years have been quite turbulent for Africa, and we are trying to get back on track.  What is IMF’s message on bold actions that leaders must take now to avoid being left behind in the global economy and to avoid Africa being in a permanent state of vulnerability?  Because we always hear that we are in a permanent state of vulnerability.  Then for Nigeria, macros are under threat right now.  How can the government — what are your suggestions on how the government can actually push through deep reforms that deliver tangible growth for its people?  Of course, for your report, you did mention the millions and millions of people that you know live below $2.15 a day. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: Any more Nigeria questions? I will take the gentleman right here.

    QUESTIONER: In your report you said that debt has stabilized.  And when you look at Nigeria’s debt profile, what insights can you share as to where the borrowings are going to?  Are you seeing more of long-term loans or short-term loans?  So that’s one.  So, what — recently the World Bank expressed concerns about the performance of Nigeria’s statistical body, saying that the institution is performing Sub optimally.  Do you share that sentiment?  Thank you very much. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: I will take one more on Nigeria. The gentleman in the first row.

    QUESTIONER: I [would] like to know in specific terms, Nigeria has already undertaken several reforms, especially removed oil subsidies and floated the naira.  What more specific things do you expect of Nigeria in terms of reform?

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: All right, thank you. Abebe?

    MR. SELASSIE: So, in terms of the reforms that have been going on in Nigeria and the particularities of the challenge, the first thing to note is that we have been really impressed by how much reforms have been undertaken in recent years. Most notably, trying to go to the heart of the cause of the macroeconomic imbalances in Nigeria, which are related to the fact that, oil subsidies were taking up a very large share of the limited tax revenues that the government have and not necessarily being used in the most effective way to help the most vulnerable people. The issues related to the imbalances on the external side with the exchange rate extremely out of line. 

    So it’s been really good to see the government taking these on, head-on, address those, and also beginning to roll out the third component of the reforms that we have been advocating for and of course, the government has been pursuing, which is to expand social protection, to target generalized subsidies to help the most vulnerable.  This has all been very good to see, but more can be done, particularly on the latter front, expanding social protection and enhancing a lot more transparency in the oil sector so that the removal of subsidies does translate into flow of revenue into the government budget.  So, there is still a bit more work to do in these areas. 

    We just had a mission in Nigeria where there was extensive discussions on these and other issues on the macroeconomic area, but also other areas where there is a need to do reforms to engender more private sector investment and also how more resources can be devoted to help Nigeria generate the revenues it so desperately needs to build more schools, more universities, and, of course, more infrastructure.  So, there is a comprehensive set of reforms that Nigeria can pursue that would help engender more growth and help diversify the economy away from reliance on oil.  And this diversification is, of course, all the more important given what we are seeing happening to commodity prices.  So, I think this is an important agenda. 

    Second, as the government is doing this, of course there will be a financing need.  And here what is needed is really a judicious and agile way of dealing with the financing challenges the country faces.  In the long run, the financing gap can only be filled by permanent sources such as revenue mobilization.  But in the interim, carefully looking at all the options the country must borrow in a contained way will be part of that solution.  And I think the government has been going about this prudently and cautiously so far, and we are encouraged by that. 

    And lastly, on data issues in Nigeria we really applaud the effort the government’s making to try and revise and upgrade data quality in Nigeria.  This task is not an easy one in our countries, given the extent of informality there is, given the extent of relative price changes that play out in our economies.  So doing this cautiously is what is needed methodically.  And that is exactly what we see happening.  We welcome, though, the efforts the government is making because without good data, it is difficult to make good policies.  So, we really applaud the effort the government is making to try and upgrade data quality. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: We will take a round of questions online.

    QUESTIONER: There are bills in the UK Parliament and the New York State Assembly that aim to force holdout private creditors to accept debt treatments on comparable terms to other creditors and to limit or stop such litigation.  Are these bills needed, do you think, or is the current international debt architecture sufficient?  So, you know, IMF, DSAs, creditor groups, the common framework, where applicable. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: Please go ahead with your question.

    QUESTIONER: Earlier this month, the IMF reached a staff-level agreement with Burkina Faso to complete the Third Review of the country’s program.  So as part of the review, the IMF allowed a greater fiscal flexibility, allowing Burkina Faso to raise its public deficit target to 4 percent, up from the 2 percent cap set by the West African Economic Monetary Union.  So, given that the country’s challenges, such as persistent insecurity, high social demands, are common across the region, wouldn’t it be wiser to consider applying this flexibility more broadly to the West African Economic Monetary Union?  And my second question will be about the downward revision of the growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 in Sub-Saharan Africa.  Does the IMF view this new crisis – I am talking about the global uncertainty and the recent U.S. tariff measures.  Does the IMF view this crisis as potentially more severe and with broader consequences for the region than previous shocks such as COVID and the war in Ukraine? 

    MR. SELASSIE: On the first question on debt workouts and the challenges there, I am not fully informed about the specifics of the bills that Rachel, you are talking about, indeed, we have seen from time to time some private creditor groups holding out, trying to hold out, but I am not sure that a bill is what’s needed, but rather, force of argument to try and bring people to the table. And in recent restructurings, at least I am not aware of this being the main hindrance in advancing discussions.  There have been many other factors, including just the complexity of the current creditor landscape, that have played a role. 

    On Burkina Faso, flexibility under the program or the deficit targets for the WAEMU countries more generally, just it is important to distinguish between particular years’ fiscal deficit targets that the government wants to pursue and we, incorporate in the program and just the more medium-term criteria, convergence criteria that there is for the WAEMU countries. 

    So, the 3 percent target criteria are for the medium- to long-term.  And it has been very clear that when there are shocks or when there are pressing social development needs, countries do have the scope to deviate from that.  In fact, often the constraint on the Sahel countries has been not having enough, sufficient, enough financing to be able to meet these to advance development objectives.  The other constraint of course is that overall, the more you exceed this 3 percent target and add to the overall debt burden, the more you are going to have – you are likely to build up debt vulnerabilities. 

    So, in the work that we do with countries, whether it is Burkina Faso or other WAEMU countries or indeed beyond, what we try and help with is of course to help countries strike this balance between addressing the immediate and pressing needs that they have while avoiding medium-term debt sustainability problems.  I think one is just thinking about how to strike this balance.  And then second, we put resources on the table very cheaply to help countries, avoid, at least in the near term, more difficult financing difficulties.  So, for Burkina and others, it is just about striking this balance.

    And on growth, whether this latest shock is as bad for the region as the previous ones. I think it is really important also to point out that as difficult, I mean the last four or five years have been incredibly difficult time for our countries, a lot of challenges, a lot of dislocation, but there is also been quite a lot of resilience, and I think that is important to stress.  I would note that, even now, it is this year, 11 out of the 20 fastest growing economies in the world are from Sub-Saharan Africa.  So, there are quite a lot of countries that are going to be sustaining significant growth in the region.  So, we should also not lose sight of this resilience. 

    Second, and more broadly, the buildup of uncertainties I think is very negative.  And this is interrupting what we are seeing in terms of a recovery.  But growth is not, we are not projecting growth to collapse.  And our hope is that as things calm down, the region can resume its growth trajectory also.

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: We will take three more questions online, then we will come back to the room.

    QUESTIONER: I wanted to know about Senegal, in terms of whether funds would be repaid after the misreporting of data and if the IMF has learned anything from that?  And also, just if you can, the status of the IMF’s programs and even operations in Sudan and South Sudan? 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: Please go ahead.

    QUESTIONER: The IMF is urging countries to focus on domestic revenue mobilization.  But you may have seen that South Africa’s Finance Minister has withdrawn the VAT increase that he had proposed in the budget, in the face of opposition from coalition partners.  Does the IMF see any alternative sources of revenue that are feasible for the South African government as the parties hoped?  And are there any lessons here for other countries trying to mobilize domestic revenue?                                                         

    QUESTIONER: Building on the question that Hilary has asked that the REO does make the case for domestic revenue mobilization, and you made that argument, I believe, in the last two Regional Economic Outlook reports as well.  But poverty is still endemic.  Incomes, as far as I can tell, have not really recovered to pre-pandemic levels.  So other than broadcast to tax exemptions what else can be done to raise tax-to-GDP ratios?  One last question on this.  Has there been any progress that has been made in the Sovereign Debt Roundtable in deciding how debt from Afreximbank, and Trade and Development Bank should be treated, at least under the common framework for countries like Ghana and Zambia?  Now, do they qualify to not have their debt restructured in the same way that the IMF, the World Bank’s credit lines?

    MR. SELASSIE: On Senegal, I was recently in Dakar for discussions building on work that our team has been doing. What we are waiting for is the government to finalize the work that’s ongoing.  Right now, the audits are going on and reconciliation work is going on. 

    On the extent of domestic and external debt.  We have been very clear in welcoming the transparency and really robust and collegial way in which the government has been engaging on the issues that have arisen in the misreporting case and we look forward to the numbers stabilizing, and engaging in discussions on the next steps in terms of bringing the, the findings to our Executive Board and next steps in our engagement with Senegal. 

    On South Sudan, it has just been a difficult period of course for South Sudan.  They have been hosting hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing from the conflict in the north.  The conflict has also interrupted, disrupted heavily their main source of tax revenue, oil exports through the pipeline.  So, it’s been a really wrenching period.  Over the last three, four years we have provided, you know, we have been trying to provide South Sudan with emergency financing and trying to find a way in which we can engage with a more structured longer-term program.  We remain hopeful that we are going to be able to do that.  But first and foremost, I think we need to see what can be done to make sure that the policy making environment is as robust and as strong as it is, and as transparent, so we can come in, step in and support South Sudan.

    On revenue mobilization, I want to just first link this to the point I made earlier that what we have observed and again there is a risk of generalizing, but what we’ve observed over the last 10, 15 years in the region is that governments have made a very significant effort to invest in really important infrastructure needs in building schools, in building health clinics and much else.  And you see very positive outcomes.  Look at the electricity coverage in our region, look at the human development indicators and how much they have moved over the years in the region. 

    But we have also seen that despite a lot of investment, for example, in electricity generation capacity and electricity coverage in our countries, many roads are being built.  The returns of all this investment have not been captured in the tax revenue, which is one of the points, the pressure points where debt levels have gone up and the interest-to-revenue ratio.  So, the interest payment-to-revenue ratio has also been rising.  And this has been one of the key points of vulnerability in many economies and why a few countries have gotten into debt difficulty and needed to restructure. 

    So going forward, I think it’s very clear that to be able to continue investing; to be able to continue expanding economies and the government doing its core function, it has to find more ways other than borrowing to address this. 

    Now, in the past, governments have been quick to cut spending, and that has, we found, again and again, to be very detrimental to development progress and growth outcomes.  I think this, again, at the risk of generalizing, was the approach that was generally pursued in the 1980s and found to be very problematic, very challenging, very depressing to growth.  So, we would very much love for countries to avoid this. When there are pressing spending needs, there’s generally only a couple of ways that you can finance this.  Spending cuts or revenue mobilization.  You can borrow, of course, but as I said, borrowing is not optimal. 

    Now, this doesn’t mean revenue mobilization is easy.  Far, far from it. It requires not only political engagement, but also a lot of communication, a lot of effort to show that the resources the government is trying to generate are going to be going to the right areas to help strengthen the social contract.  So, it’s a deep and engaged process, and we are very, very cognizant of that.  But I do think that this is the most optimal way, the most economically sensible way in which our countries can help address the tremendous development needs that we have.

    Now, specifically on South Africa, ultimately when issues like this arise, these are deeply domestic political issues to be resolved as to what the best way to do the financing is.  So, if a tax rate increase for a particular tax is not possible, then maybe finding ways to expand the tax base, maybe trying different tax angles or if all of those are not possible, then revisiting spending priorities may be one of the ways that countries must handle this.  And this is typically what we see playing out in countries in the region when financing constraints are binding. 

    So, whether it is in Kenya, South Africa, or other countries the issue of revenue mobilization is a live one, but one that is extremely complex.  We are very cognizant of that.  And one that requires quite a lot of consensus building, quite a lot of discussion to be able to advance, and of course, broader societal support.  And we absolutely see countries engaging in this and do what we can to help bring lessons from other countries where we are asked to.

    Then there was a question about the GSDR.  So, this Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, this is the initiative launched by the Fund and the Bank to try and bring creditors and debtors together around the table to find ways in which debt work[outs] can be easier because you are discussing general principles rather than country-specific debt restructuring issues. And we have seen this making quite a lot of progress. Perhaps the most recent development has been the preparation of a debt work[out] playbook that is a very helpful document that has been put out building on the experience of recent work[outs].  What has worked particularly well.  What kind of information sharing ahead of debt work[outs] have been helpful in terms of accelerating debt processes.  Debt restructurings are one of the most contentious and challenging issues that there are between states, between creditors and debtors, and it requires quite a lot of discussion, and it is not such an easy thing to do, including what the parameter of debt should be.  I think one of the questions that was raised is about the debt parameter.  This is fundamentally an issue for the debtor countries and creditors to resolve, and intra-creditor disputes also have to be done. 

    So, in terms of the principles that generally we see creditors apply when these kinds of disputes arise about what the right parameter should be or not and who gets preferential treatment. I think there’s generally been two rules of thumb. One is that the terms in which new financing is being provided or the financing is provided, whether it’s commercial or concessional has been a factor that most creditors look at in terms of whether a particular credit should be included in the parameter or not, and then also the extent to which new financing is being made available.  So, what differentiates senior creditors like the IMF, the World Bank, of course, is that for most countries we operate providing concessional financing very long-term.  And we are the ones that come in and provide financing consistently through crisis and otherwise. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: We have time for one more round of questions. I will start with the gentleman in the front here. 

    QUESTIONER: The U.S. is your largest shareholder, and we are seeing mixed messages this week from the Treasury Secretary mentioning that he remains committed to the Fund but also calling on you to hold countries accountable to program performance, empower staff to walk away if reform commitment is lacking. 

    So, I wanted to ask you, should we expect the IMF spigot to start closing in response to U.S. pressure?  Or if not, are you changing your approach to countries, what you are telling them and how to deal with their issues?  Are you being a little more stringent in your requirements? 

    You have talked about Senegal, maybe Ghana, Ethiopia, related to that issue of the U.S stepping in.  The CEMAC negotiations this week, we saw American energy companies working with the CEMAC on repatriation of funds dedicated to the rehabilitation of oil sites.  I’m wondering if you have a stance on that, what the IMF position is?  I understand the U.S is trying to get the IMF involved in that.

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: All right, thanks. Gentleman. 

    QUESTIONER: Kenyan authorities here have indicated the need to present a credible fiscal framework as they try and unlock a new program for Kenya.  Would you offer more color into the discussions this week, noting again that the same credibility questions led to the cancellation or the termination of the program at its final review?  

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: We have a question online “what is the IMF’s view on Kenya’s debt position?”

    MR. SELASSIE: So, on the first question, I would like to refer you to Kristalina who gave comprehensive responses to the Secretary’s IMFC Statement. What I want to add though is that in the region, in Sub-Saharan Africa, in terms of programs, the calibration of reforms, incorporation of reforms, I would say that we are always in terms of each program has its particularities and what we always try and do in these programs is make sure that we’re striking a balance of helping countries address the long term challenges and also the cyclical challenges that are often the ones that cause them to come to us.  And I would say that I don’t think there are many countries that think that the adjustment efforts that they’re being asked to make are easy ones.

    On CEMAC.  Just to be very clear there is this dispute that is going on between member states, the BEAC, and oil companies with respect to what are called restitution funds.  The funds under contracts that countries have with oil companies are meant to be available to help restore the sites where oil is extracted back to their pre-extraction standards. 

    What has been a bit frustrating is that we are not privy to the contents of these documents. We have been calling on members and the companies involved to be transparent about this, to publish these documents.  They are after all documents that are about how countries natural resource wealth are used.  And we’ve been on record going seven, eight, nine years pushing for production sharing agreements, the terms of these things to be published so that each side can hold the other accountable.  I think that is the first thing that could be done to bring more transparency and light and understanding to the rest of the world about what is going on in these discussions. 

    Second, we have also made it clear to both parties that given that we do not have full information, it is difficult for us to know what to say.  But in general, any encumbrances in terms of how we look at foreign exchange reserves and these standards are published, any encumbrances like the type that we think there may be in the document, i.e., that is the expectation that these resources will be used for specific purposes means they’re not general use reserves.  So, they would not be classified as part of reserves. 

    On Kenya, we have had a very strong engagement with Kenya over the years and will continue to have such engagement going forward.  As we have noted, government has asked for a follow-on program to try and address the remaining challenges in Kenya, and we are discussing how to do that including in the context of these meetings. 

    It has been good to hear and see that the economy has been performing quite well in some parts.  Particularly the external adjustment front seems to have been proceeding well.  The current account has been narrowing.  So, there are quite a lot of strengths.  But also of course there remain fiscal challenges which were a significant part of the last program’s objectives that need to be advanced.  So, we are going to engage with the government and do everything that we can to be able to help it go forward. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: Unfortunately, that is all the time we have. So, if you have any questions that we didn’t get to, please send them to me or to Media at IMF.org and we will try and get back to you as soon as possible.  So, also to mention that the report is now available at IMF.org/Africa.  The Spring Meetings continue.  Later this morning, we have the press briefing for the European Department and later in the afternoon we have the IMFC, and the Western Hemisphere Department press briefings. 

    On behalf of Abebe and the African and Communications Departments, thank you all for coming to this press briefing and see you next time. 

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Kwabena Akuamoah-Boateng

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/25/tr-04252025-african-department-press-briefing-transcript

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Experts of the Committee against Torture Praise Measures to Prevent Torture in Ukraine, Ask about Alleged Torture of Russian Prisoners of War and Reports of Corruption and Torture in Prisons

    Source: United Nations – Geneva

    The Committee against Torture today concluded its consideration of the seventh periodic report of Ukraine, with Committee Experts praising the State’s legislative and policy measures to prevent torture, and raising questions about alleged torture of Russian prisoners of war, as well as reports of torture and corruption in prisons.

    Claude Heller, Committee Chair and Country Co-Rapporteur, said Ukraine had suffered a devastating war since the full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation on 24 February 2022, in flagrant violation of international law and the United Nations Charter.  More than three years of war had led to numerous military and civilian deaths and serious violations of international human rights law, including summary executions, torture and ill-treatment, and arbitrary detentions.

    Mr. Heller said that, over the past decade, Ukraine had made considerable amendments to legislation and ministries, including with respect to the occupied territories.  He welcomed that the national strategy for human rights had been updated to include strategic goals for combatting torture, the appointment of human rights inspectors in places of detention, and the State’s ratification of the Rome Statute in 2024.

    Since February 2022, Mr. Heller said, 240 Russian prisoners of war had reported suffering torture during the armed conflict in Ukrainian detention centres.  What measures had been taken in cases where torture had been confirmed?  The Committee was concerned about reports of illegal detentions by Ukrainian authorities. How many people had been detained illegally?

    Peter Vedel Kessing, Committee Expert and Country Co-Rapporteur, said prisons under Ukrainian control were suffering under the war. Some faced frequent shelling by Russian troops, and were reportedly becoming hotbeds of torture and corruption. Newly arrived prisoners were reportedly routinely beaten, and there was reported overcrowding in prisons.  What steps had been taken to reduce overcrowding and improve prison conditions?

    Introducing the report, Liudmyla Suhak, Deputy Minister of Justice for European Integration of Ukraine and head of the delegation, said Ukraine was systematically implementing measures to prevent and combat torture at the national level. The 2021 strategy for combatting torture in the criminal justice system introduced a system for combatting torture by law enforcement, while the national human rights strategy had been updated to include specific strategic goals for combatting torture.

    Ms. Suhak said that the conditions of detention for Russian prisoners of war complied with international humanitarian law and had been inspected 112 times by the International Committee of the Red Cross between 2018 and 2024.  To ensure that prisoners of war were not tortured during transfers to detainment camps, the delegation added, clear legal procedures had been developed.  Military officials were trained on the rights of prisoners of war.

    The delegation said that the State party had undertaken measures to combat corruption and ill-treatment of inmates in the penitentiary system.  An internal security unit had been created to investigate reports of violations by penitentiary staff and inmates.  In 2024, persons responsible for observing the rights of convicts and preventing torture were also introduced into the staff of 56 penal institutions.

    In closing remarks, Mr. Heller said that the State party’s efforts to engage in the dialogue were commendable in the context of the bloodthirsty war.  The issues discussed were not issues of the past but were ongoing.  Ukraine sought to protect its territorial integrity and the well-being of its population.  The rest of the world was hoping for an end to the war that respected the territorial integrity of Ukraine.  The Committee hoped that its next dialogue with Ukraine would take place in conditions of peace, prosperity and democracy.

    In her concluding remarks, Ms. Suhak said that Ukraine would actively work to implement the Committee’s concluding observations.  Tens of thousands of Ukrainian citizens were being held by Russia, and virtually every Ukrainian citizen who had been returned from Russia had suffered some form of torture.  Ukraine urged Russia to fully comply with its obligations under international law and to end its illegal war.  The Committee’s efforts would help to hold Russia to account.

    The delegation of Ukraine consisted of representatives from the Ministry of Social Policy; Coordination Centre for Legal Aid Provision; Prosecutor General’s Office; Security Service; Ministry of Defence; Ministry of Justice; State Migration Service; State Bureau of Investigation; National Police; Ministry of Health; the Permanent Mission of Ukraine to the United Nations Office at Geneva; and the European Court of Human Rights.

    The Committee will issue concluding observations on the report of Ukraine at the end of its eighty-second session on 2 May.  Those, and other documents relating to the Committee’s work, including reports submitted by States parties, will be available on the session’s webpage.  Summaries of the public meetings of the Committee can be found here, and webcasts of the public meetings can be found here.

    The Committee will next meet in public on Tuesday, 29 April at 4 p.m. to hear the presentation of reports on follow-up to articles 19 and 22 of the Convention and reprisals.

    Report

    The Committee has before it the seventh periodic report of Ukraine (CAT/C/UKR/7).

    Presentation of Report

    LIUDMYLA SUHAK, Deputy Minister of Justice for European Integration of Ukraine and head of the delegation, said Ukraine was systematically implementing measures to prevent and combat torture at the national level.  The 2021 strategy for combatting torture in the criminal justice system outlined the development of a national system for combatting torture committed by law enforcement personnel.  The national human rights strategy had been updated to include specific strategic goals for combatting torture and ensuring the right to liberty and security of person. The strategy for the reform of the penitentiary system 2021-2026 aimed to address structural problems and create a humanistic system for the execution of criminal penalties.

    During the reporting period, several amendments were made to criminal legislation.  The Criminal Code had been revised to bring the definition of torture into line with the provisions of the Convention, and to introduce criminal liability for the crime of enforced disappearance. Additionally, legislation was revised to guarantee the right of detainees to be held in proper conditions and to facilitate the consideration of complaints about improper detention conditions.  The criminal penalty system now also included probation supervision. 

    In 2024, amendments were made to the Code of Administrative Offences to distinguish between domestic violence, gender-based violence and sexual harassment, to increase administrative liability for such acts.  Several legislative initiatives were currently under consideration by Parliament, including a draft law on the penitentiary system, as well as other draft laws that would introduce a standard for minimum cell space of four square metres per detainee, the right of convicts to short-term visits outside the colony under certain conditions, and revised procedures for detaining persons.

    New internal regulations for the temporary detention centres of the national police adopted in 2023 stipulated that police officers were not allowed to carry out acts of torture or other forms of inhuman treatment on detainees.  In 2018 and 2019, internal regulations for pre-trial detention centres and penitentiary institutions of the State Penitentiary Service were approved.  These rules were regularly updated.  In 2024, the Security Service’s procedure for holding persons in temporary detention facilities was revised. 

    Ukraine provided unhindered access for both national and international monitoring mechanisms. In 2024, the national preventive mechanism of the Ombudsperson conducted 543 visits to penitentiary institutions, and the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine carried out 44 visits between 2018 and 2024.

    Efforts were being made to develop a child-friendly juvenile justice system.  As a result, over the past five years, there had been a steady reduction in juvenile crime, and over the past seven years, the number of minors registered by probation authorities had dropped three-fold.

    In 2024, a Commissioner for Missing Persons under Special Circumstances was appointed within the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and a specialised unit for combatting torture and other ill-treatment of persons, staffed with 157 investigators, had been launched within the State Bureau of Investigation.  Within the Office of the Prosecutor General, separate specialised units had been established to combat human rights violations in the law enforcement and penitentiary sectors, as well as to combat crimes committed in the context of the armed conflict.  The Ministry of Justice also had a separate Department of Penitentiary Inspections.

    In 2024, persons responsible for observing the rights of convicts and preventing torture were introduced into the staff of 56 penal institutions.  The State had developed the digital infrastructure of both law enforcement agencies and the penitentiary system, launching registers of convicted persons, persons taken into custody, and missing persons under special circumstances.  An automated exchange of information on detained persons between law enforcement agencies and free legal aid centres was being introduced.  In cases of violence or torture against detainees and convicts, they had the right to free legal representation in court.

    State social programmes aimed at preventing and combatting domestic violence, gender-based violence, and human trafficking were being implemented.  Free secondary legal aid was provided to victims of domestic violence and human trafficking.

    In response to Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine, Ukrainian law enforcement agencies had initiated investigations into 163,700 war crimes and crimes of aggression on Ukrainian territory.  In 2024, the Criminal Code was amended to ensure criminal prosecution for the most serious international crimes, as well as to bring it into line with the Rome Statute, which entered into force for Ukraine in 2025. 

    In 2022, the procedure for the detention of prisoners of war was approved.  It stipulated that the interrogation of prisoners of war should be carried out in a language they understood, without the use of torture or other coercive measures.  The conditions of detention for Russian prisoners of war complied with international humanitarian law and had been inspected 112 times by the International Committee of the Red Cross between 2018 and 2024.  Conversely, Russian authorities continued to deny access to Ukrainian prisoners of war, as well as civilian detainees, held by Russia in violation of international humanitarian law.

    Ukraine had also been taking measures to support victims and those affected by armed aggression. Since 2022, victims of a number of criminal offences, including torture or cruel treatment, had been entitled to free secondary legal aid.  In 2024, the legal status of victims of sexual violence related to Russia’s armed aggression and the legal basis for providing them with urgent interim reparations were determined at the legislative level.  An international compensation mechanism for damages caused by Russia’s aggression was being developed.  In 2024, 40 categories of claims that could be submitted to the International Register of Damages were approved, including some related to torture, deprivation of liberty, and sexual violence.

    Questions by Committee Experts

    CLAUDE HELLER, Committee Chair and Country Co-Rapporteur, welcomed the delegation’s presence, considering that Ukraine had suffered a devastating war since the full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation on 24 February 2022, in flagrant violation of international law and the Charter of the United Nations.  After more than three years of war, hundreds of thousands of military personnel on both sides were estimated to have died, with many more wounded, missing in action and in captivity.  From February 2022 to February 2025, there had been more than 12,800 civilian deaths and more than 30,000 injuries in systematic attacks on civilian towns, cities, and infrastructure, while the number of deaths of Russian civilians was expected to have risen to 360.  These were very conservative elements.

    The war had led to serious violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, including summary executions; torture and ill-treatment; arbitrary detentions; forced transfer of people, including minors, to the occupying State; and acts of sexual violence. More than 13 million people required humanitarian assistance, more than two million homes had been destroyed in Ukraine, and there were 10.6 million displaced people in Ukraine.

    Over the past decade, Ukraine had made considerable amendments to legislation and ministries, including with respect to the occupied territories.  The national strategy for human rights had been updated to include strategic goals for combatting torture.  The adoption of the strategy to combat torture and the related plan of action and the appointment of human rights inspectors in places of detention would contribute to preventing torture and facilitating investigations.  It was also welcome that in 2024, a commissioner for disappeared persons was appointed within the police force, and that Ukraine had ratified the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance.

    The Committee was concerned that not all the elements of the Convention had been incorporated in the Criminal Code, which did not establish the State’s responsibility to hold public officials accountable when they committed acts of torture under orders from superiors.  Why was the number of cases of torture that reached court much smaller than the number of investigations carried out?

    The Ombudsperson carried out independent monitoring of constitutional rights and freedoms.  However, the body lacked financial resources and experts on monitoring.  There was a lack of transparency in the selection of its staff, and a lack of balanced regional representation.  The national preventive mechanism had also been criticised for its lack of experts and funding, delays in its investigations, and its lack of cooperation with civil society. There was a low level of implementation of recommendations made by the Ombudsperson; only one-third of the recommendations made in 2023 were addressed.  Could the delegation comment on these issues?

    State bodies responsible for guaranteeing the rights of detainees appeared to have been ineffective. Victims of torture were allegedly subjected to reprisals by authorities and the Istanbul Protocol was not applied well by the State.  Could the delegation comment on this?

    In 2015, Parliament had adopted a decision to suspend certain obligations stemming from the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the European Convention of Human Rights and impose martial law until the cessation of the Russian aggression. The Committee was concerned by acts carried out by armed groups in eastern Ukraine from 2014 to 2017. During this period, more than 100 criminal cases were brought against Ukrainian security officials, including related to offences of torture and sexual violence.  Had court proceedings concluded?

    The State party had taken a significant step by ratifying the Rome Statute in 2024.  The implementation law partially harmonised criminal law with the Statute, requiring acts of torture systematically committed against the civilian population to be tried as crimes against humanity.  However, the law did not amend legislation on war crimes to bring it in line with the Statute.  Would the State do this?

    Both Russia and Ukraine had mutually accused each other of acts of torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment against civilians.  There were more than 6,000 Ukrainian prisoners under Russian custody, who reportedly lacked access to food and medical support.  There were credible reports that Russian authorities had carried out around 80 executions of Ukrainian forces.  The United Nations Independent Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine had reported widespread torture of civilians in areas under Russian control. Persons arrested in these territories were tried by non-recognised courts and were not granted access to lawyers of their choice.  Information on trials was not provided to families.  Could the State party provide information on the number of such trials carried out?

    Since February 2022, 240 Russian prisoners of war had reported suffering torture during the armed conflict in Ukrainian detention centres.  Could the delegation comment on these accusations?  What measures had been taken in cases where torture had been confirmed, and how was the State party preventing torture?  The Committee was concerned about reports of illegal detentions by Ukrainian authorities.  How many people had been detained illegally?  There had also been allegations of arbitrary detention of civilians suspected of collaborating with Russia after territories were reclaimed.

    The Committee was also concerned about the impact of the conflict on the rule of law.  Several cases of threats and violence against journalists had been reported.  Ukraine introduced a procedure in 2022 to prohibit broadcasts that “could jeopardise the independence and sovereignty of the country”.  Some journalists had been criminalised after working in occupied territories, despite there being no evidence of having committed unlawful acts. Could the delegation comment on this issue?

    More than 2,000 criminal lawsuits had been filed on the glorification of Russian actions.  This had reportedly given rise to 443 guilty verdicts involving non-custodial sentences.  Authorities had imposed security restrictions, including limiting access to information.  A bill before Parliament sought to restrict access to court decisions until the cessation of martial law, and several other bills had sought to limit certain rights for human rights defenders.  There was deep-rooted impunity for crimes against activists.

    There had been an unprecedented increase in gender-based violence in Ukraine.  The number of cases of domestic violence had increased by more than 30 per cent in 2024, with a number of these cases involving men returning from the front. The State was seemingly reluctant to hold members of the armed forces accountable for such crimes.

    A 2017 law amended legislation regarding psychiatric care in response to past violations of patients’ rights. Norms allowing for involuntary sterilisation were eliminated.  However, there were reports of excessive hospitalisation of persons with psychosocial disabilities, including children, and a lack of provision of alternative, community-based care services.  There were allegations of torture and ill-treatment in psychiatric hospitals; could the delegation comment on this?

    PETER VEDEL KESSING, Committee Expert and Country Co-Rapporteur, said that the situation in Ukraine was tragic after three years of war.  Mr. Kessing commended Ukraine’s commitment to its human rights obligations in these difficult times, adopting laws and policies to strengthen human rights protections.  Ukraine had continued to engage with the European Court of Human Rights since 2022, resulting in the closure of 75 cases.

    What steps had been taken to ensure that Ukrainian soldiers and State officials did not engage in torture? What training did these officials receive on the Convention?  Could the delegation confirm that its derogations from international law in the martial law period did not relate to the Convention?  Did Ukraine continue to apply international human rights law in situations of armed conflict?

    The State party needed to prosecute and hold accountable all those who committed torture on occupied territories when it regained control of the territory.  What steps had been taken to document such acts?  How had the State party ensured that Ukrainian citizens who were victims of torture had access to remedies when they returned to Ukraine? Ukraine had developed a draft law on compensation for victims of violent crimes and a related State fund.  Had this law been adopted?

    There had been reports of beatings of men who sought to avoid conscription.  In one case, a man claimed he had been drafted illegally as he had not undergone a medical examination.  Could the delegation provide statistical information on injuries and deaths linked to hazing and investigations into such incidents?  How did the State ensure that conscripts were treated in line with international obligations?

    There had been reports of excessive use of force by Ukrainian police over the reporting period.  Detainees in police detention did not have access to food or drinking water.  What steps had been taken to prevent ill-treatment in police detention? Access to a lawyer was not always provided for arrested persons; how would the State ensure this?  Video recording of interrogation was discretionary. Would the State make recording mandatory and ensure that recorded footage of interrogations was kept?  Were Russian prisoners of war and civilians arrested by Ukrainian forces provided with procedural safeguards?  How many children had been held in pre-trial detention over the last three years?  Were there time limits on the detention of children, and were children separated from adults in detention?

    Prisons under Ukrainian control were suffering under the war; some faced frequent shelling by Russian troops, and were reportedly becoming hotbeds of torture and corruption.  Since winter 2024, there had been increased raids on prisons by special forces.  The Committee commended that human rights observers had been appointed in some prisons. What actions did they carry out and were they now appointed in all prisons? 

    Newly arrived prisoners were reportedly routinely beaten, and special forces used illegal force against inmates. Was it necessary to deploy special forces in prisons?  Would the State abandon this practice?  There was reported overcrowding in prisons, with inmates in one prison forced to alternatively sleep on the floor.  There were also reports of limited access to fresh air, clean drinking water and sunlight in some prisons.  What steps had been taken to reduce overcrowding and improve prison conditions? Some prisoners were appointed as “duty” prisoners and given duties to oversee other prisoners.  Had steps been taken to eliminate this practice and protect all prisoners’ rights?

    Medical staff in prisons reportedly did not document inmates’ injuries.  Could the delegation provide information on the number of deaths in custody over the last three years?  What steps had been taken to strengthen healthcare in prisons?  There were no rules banning force-feeding in prisons; did the Government intend to elaborate such rules?  Did the Ukrainian Ombudsperson have access to all places of detention and could it conduct unannounced visits?  To what extent could non-governmental organizations access places of detention?  Article 391 of the Criminal Code made it an offence to disobey orders by prison staff. This provision was reportedly abused by staff to engage in corrupt practices; would it be revised?

    Other Committee Experts asked questions on measures taken by State authorities to respond to and prevent domestic violence; the status of the draft bill criminalising domestic violence and sexual violence; measures to ensure penalties for domestic and sexual violence were commensurate with the gravity of the crime; the number of investigations and convictions for domestic violence cases over the reporting period; efforts made to establish civil registries to facilitate birth registration and prevent trafficking of children; whether the State party held Ukrainian forces that were returned to the State accountable when they were accused of torture; how the State treated prisoners of war from third countries; and whether the clergy and staff of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church had been provided with support after the banning of the Church.

    Responses by the Delegation

    The delegation said the State party provided training on the Convention and other international and European human rights norms for penitentiary staff.  Currently, there were 119 children held in pre-trial detention and 177 children held in juvenile detention facilities, including just one girl. Judges assessed the necessity of detention for children once every three months.

    The State party had undertaken measures to combat corruption and ill-treatment of inmates in the penitentiary system.  An internal security unit had been created to investigate reports of violations by penitentiary staff and inmates and to initiate criminal proceedings against accused persons; the Government was currently recruiting staff for the unit. The State party had recruited 54 out of 56 human rights inspectors for its prisons and adopted a resolution on their scope of activity.  These inspectors reported directly to the State about the problems they witnessed.

    Currently, there were 37,000 inmates in places of deprivation of liberty in Ukraine.  The prison population was declining gradually.  More than 8,000 prisoners had been voluntarily mobilised at the beginning of the war.  The Government had allocated funds to build a new detention facility in Kyiv that could accommodate more than 1,000 detainees and decrease the population of other prisons. Norms on construction had been revised to protect prisons from shelling and improve security.  Despite budget cuts, over 7,500 places had been newly created in detention centres since 2022.

    The State party was fighting the spread of criminal influence and a criminal subculture in prisons.  It sought to proactively prosecute crimes occurring within prisons and to adopt a law on prison labour, which would increase salaries paid to prisoners who engaged in labour and improve conditions for prison labour.

    There had been 432, 376 and 368 deaths in prisons respectively in 2022, 2023 and 2024.  Some 98 per cent of prisoners infected with AIDS and 93 per cent of prisoners with disabilities were held in inclusive settings.  The Ministry of Justice supported the idea of transferring the management of healthcare services in prisons to the Ministry of Health; discussions on this would begin soon.  Rules on force-feeding were adopted two years ago.

    The Ombudsperson had not complained about not being able to access any detention facilities.  Some non-governmental organizations had been granted access to penitentiary facilities.  An anonymous, online complaints system for prisons had been set up; last year, 6,000 complaints had been submitted by prisoners on various topics. A commission was also being created that would handle complaints of improper conditions in prisons. Discussions were underway on the revision of article 391 of the Criminal Code.

    All prisoners of war were kept in common conditions.  Persons with criminal records were separated from those without.  Ukraine fully followed its international obligations under the Geneva Conventions.  It had allowed 400 monitoring missions to visit its detention facilities for prisoners of war.

    Since 2014, the State party had lost 34 penitentiary institutions located in occupied territories, including seven since 2022, in which more than 3,000 inmates were held.  More than 1,000 of these inmates had already served their sentences, but had no money or documents needed to return to Ukraine. The State was working with non-governmental organizations to support their return.  More than 500 persons had thus far returned.

    On 10 October last year, Parliament adopted a law on the ratification of the Rome Statute.  Ukraine had taken on board comments from the International Criminal Court regarding its legislation on crimes against humanity and the responsibility of superiors; the State had amended its Criminal Code in response.

    Certain restrictions could be imposed on rights and freedoms under martial law, but Ukraine had not restricted the right to freedom of religious belief.  The President had last year signed a Presidential Order that banned the activities of the Russian Orthodox Church, which was based on the ideology of the regime of the Russian Federation and condoned Russia’s war crimes.

    Ukraine had not introduced severe restrictions on freedom of expression.  Domestic media faced challenges, including the mobilisation of journalists as soldiers, dwindling resources, and damaged infrastructure caused by the Russian aggression.  The State party sought to bring its media legislation in line with that of the European Union.  Ukraine had risen 18 places in the World Press Freedom Index thanks to the reforms implemented.

    The national police continued to manage custody records, which recorded arrests, pre-trial detention and releases, as well as detainees’ injuries.  These records were kept for 25 years.  There was constant video surveillance of police detention sites and independent monitoring visits were carried out.  The Criminal Procedural Code had been amended to ensure that officials involved in arrests were not responsible for managing detainees’ stay in police detention. Detainees in temporary detention were provided with three hot meals per day.  Standards for detention facilities stipulated that cells needed to have a water supply that detainees could access.

    Since February 2022, 83,000 criminal proceedings had been instigated related to missing civilians and military officers.  Some 9,000 missing persons had been found alive, while many deaths were also identified. Specialised departments for the investigation of crimes committed in the armed conflict had been established in police departments in several regions and a centre for tracing missing persons had been established in Kyiv.

    The police force had recorded 179,000 administrative offences related to domestic violence, registered 19,000 perpetrators for monitoring, and had set up specialised units for tackling domestic violence in more than 60 regions.  In 2024, more than 5,000 officers were trained on combatting domestic and gender-based violence.

    The State constantly looked for crimes of human trafficking and took prompt responses when cases were identified. As of May 2025, 1,500 criminal offences of human trafficking had been investigated.  International organizations supported training for State officials on trafficking in persons.  Ukraine had joined two international taskforces to combat trafficking in persons, through which more than 3,000 Ukrainian victims of trafficking were identified across the world.

    Eleven years since the Maidan revolution, investigators were continuing to investigate crimes related to it. Courts had issued 11 guilty verdicts against 14 people.  The State Bureau of Investigation had suspected 340 people. The former President of Ukraine and other former high-level officials were under suspicion of having facilitated the murders of more than 67 persons between 2013 and 2014.  In this period, police officers were deployed to supress protests, and courts had found activists guilty on spurious grounds.  In some cases, police officers beat activists and even participated in premeditated murders.  In total, there were more than 4,000 cases of criminal activity and more than 2,000 victims.  There was now an opportunity to bring justice for these past crimes. There were three criminal proceedings underway related to armed gangs that had attacked individuals and homes.

    War crimes were investigated by the national security service and the police.  In 2024, 149 Ukrainians had been executed by Russians, and 54 had so far been executed this year.  These were conservative estimates.  Almost every Ukrainian prisoner of war had suffered some form of violence. 

    There were around 20 cases under examination of war crimes committed by Ukrainians.  Doctors who provided medical examinations of prisoners of war were required to document signs of torture.

    According to Ukrainian law, information about persons in detention was immediately communicated to the legal aid centre.  If evidence was gathered while a defence lawyer was absent, there was a high likelihood that courts would not admit it.  The State was providing legal support for prisoners who had been illegally transferred to Russia and supporting them to serve the remainder of their sentences in Ukraine.  Persons with disabilities and older persons could access legal aid if they had low income or were internally displaced.  Legal aid was provided to minors and victims of gender-based violence and trafficking in persons.

    National standards on detention of prisoners of war stipulated that detainees’ human dignity and international law needed to be respected.  No violations of human rights or cases of torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment had been found while monitoring visits of places of detention.

    Pre-trial investigations were underway into alleged war crimes against Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russia, including extrajudicial executions and the use of physical, psychological and sexual violence.  These prisoners were systematically subjected to violence over the course of their detention; this had been confirmed by medical examinations.  Some 4,000 prisoners had been returned to Ukraine.

    Since February 2022, some 433 persons were detained for crimes of collaboration with Russia.  The draft law of December 2022 on collaboration included provisions to improve liability for collaboration; it was currently under consideration.  Some 819 investigations were underway on cases of collaboration related to healthcare and education.  The teaching of school subjects based on the standards of the aggressor State did not constitute an offence.  Some teachers deliberately carried out propaganda in educational institutions; this could constitute an offence. 

    Around 22 doctors had been notified of being under suspicion of collaboration.  Criminal liability was excluded for actions carried out while providing healthcare to patients.  Since February 2022, pre-trial investigations on collaboration had been carried out into 97 affiliates of religious organizations, including more than 20 clerics of the Orthodox Church.  The security service had declared 197 minors as suspects in offences such as high treason, sabotage and damage to property.  Many cases involved minors who were recruited by the Russian special services. Training was provided for investigators who interviewed children on the best interests of the child.

    To ensure that prisoners of war were well-treated and not tortured during transfers to detainment camps, clear legal procedures had been developed.  The Chief of Defence had issued orders to ensure that international human rights law was strictly followed in this process. Military officials were trained on capturing enemy combatants and on the rights of prisoners of war.

    To ensure that human rights were followed during mobilisation and conscription, clear legislation had been established.  Persons could apply for deferment of conscription for medical or family reasons. An investigator had been appointed within the Land Force Command to investigate allegations of human rights violations occurring during conscription.

    The Ministry of Health had made changes to ensure that only psychiatric patients who posed a danger to themselves or others were isolated for legally defined periods.  All primary health care providers were obligated to undergo training on identifying mental health issues and referring patients to mental health care services.  These measures would help to decrease the number of patients needing institutionalisation.

    More than 34,000 persons with disabilities and older persons lived in residential institutions.  The Government had developed a strategy to reform these institutions and support community-based care and assisted living. Approximately 7,000 people received day care services.  There were around 4,600 children cared for in institutions.  The Government had approved a strategy to ensure the right of every child in Ukraine to grow up in a family environment by 2028.  A law preventing violence against children had been adopted in 2024 and the State was currently developing a procedure for responding to cases of violence against children.

    In 2024, around 182,000 reports of domestic violence had been received by the State.  A programme for addressing traumatic war experiences had been developed. Measures had been implemented to coordinate policies on domestic violence and protect victims.

    In 2022, Parliament adopted a law on amending the Criminal Code in line with the Convention.  The revised law’s definition of torture addressed the liability of persons who conspired to commit torture.  Discriminatory motives for the crime of torture were considered to be aggravating offences and carried a harsher penalty.  The law also addressed the criminal liability of officials who ordered acts of torture.  Amnesty was not issued to persons who committed torture crimes.

    No derogations had been made from the State party’s obligations under international human rights law during the martial law period.  Martial law foresaw the ability to prohibit peaceful assembly, but in practice, this restriction had not been applied.  The Government took steps to provide compensation for victims of various types of crimes.

    A special draft law had been developed that sought to improve the institutional capacity of the Ombudsperson, including by lowering the age limit for members of the Ombudsperson’s Office and imposing restrictions on reductions to the Office’s budget.

    Questions by Committee Experts

    CLAUDE HELLER, Committee Chair and Country Co-Rapporteur, welcomed information on measures to provide compensation for victims of human rights violations.  Up to mid-February 2025, 159,000 criminal cases had been recorded related to the armed conflict, but it was unclear how many of these cases related to torture.  The justice system had not been prepared to deal with the challenges brought by these cases.  Acts of torture committed in occupied territories, difficulties in verifying evidence, and the internal displacement of victims hindered investigations.  There was a lack of guarantees of a fair trial for trials in absentia, in which 95 per cent of accused persons were sentenced. Articles 27 and 28 of the Criminal Code needed to be amended to protect the victims and witnesses of serious international crimes.

    Crimea was annexed 11 years ago, and the freedom of the media had been called into question under the Russian occupation.  Russian authorities reportedly curtailed the rights to freedom of expression and assembly. Lawyers and human rights defenders had been victims of persecution and had been unable to perform their work. The European Court of Human Rights had recently found that Russia followed a pattern of criminally sentencing persons in Crimea who discredited the Russian forces.  Had there been cases of torture in Crimea?

    PETER VEDEL KESSING, Committee Expert and Country Co-Rapporteur, said it was positive that overcrowding had been reduced, that a new prison facility had been established, that an electronic register had been established, and that measures were taken to remove the prison hierarchy and improve access to health care.  How could prisoners access the internet to make complaints to the Prison Service?  How did the Service respond to complaints?  Did any concern torture?  Human rights monitors in prisons were commendable.  Did these monitors also perform other functions in prisons?  How many complaints had been received from human rights monitors and what follow-up had been conducted?  There was reportedly a risk of reprisals for prisoners who lodged complaints.  What measures were in place to counter reprisals against prisoners?

    Prisoners of war were at a high risk of ill-treatment.  What measures were taken to monitor that Russian prisoners of war were treated in line with requirements under international law?  Did they undergo medical exams and was there video recording of interrogations?  Was there a procedure for releasing prisoners of war who required medical treatment?

    Another Committee Expert asked follow-up questions on the situation of prisoners and prison conditions in Crimea, including on the transfer of prisoners and cases of torture occurring during transfers; the situation in closed psychiatric institutions and steps taken to protect vulnerable groups such as children, and to improve conditions and oversight of these institutions; and measures taken to promote the return of children forcibly transferred from Ukraine to Russia and to ensure accountability for such acts.

    Responses by the Delegation

    The delegation said around 7,000 complaints had been submitted by prisoners, around 1,700 of which were submitted electronically.  Inmates could access specific web pages where they could submit complaints using tablets in a dedicated room.  Human rights inspectors reported suspected cases of torture to the Chief of Police. Their work was supplemented by the internal security unit, which started disciplinary proceedings that could result in criminal investigations.  There had been complaints submitted to the Ombudsperson regarding reprisals against prisoners.  These were under investigation.

    The State party was gathering evidence on war crimes and crimes against humanity occurring in occupied territories. It transferred evidence of such crimes to the International Criminal Court on request.  A working group had been established to improve the implementation of the Rome Statute in Ukraine, including through legal amendments.  Last year, the State had documented over 2,800 Ukrainian civilians and over 4,000 prisoners of war who were victims of torture. Many liberated civilians chose to move to different countries rather than return to Ukraine, making investigations difficult.

    Ukrainian non-governmental organizations had reported that there were at least 4,700 transfers of detainees from Crimea to the territory of the Russian Federation, including 220 female detainees. The Russian Federation had failed to provide information in response to the judgement of the European Court of Human Rights that obliged Russia to return these prisoners to Ukraine.

    The Government had adopted several measures to address the issue of the forcible displacement of Ukrainian children, including a procedure for identifying and returning such children, a register of deported and forcibly displaced children, and an inter-agency commission on the issue.

    Concluding Remarks

    CLAUDE HELLER, Committee Chair, said that, based on the dialogue, the Committee would issue concluding observations, which would include recommendations that the State party could implement within one year, as well as other recommendations that would require more time to implement.  The Committee believed that its recommendations would support the implementation of the Convention in Ukraine.

    The State party’s efforts to engage in the dialogue were commendable in the context of the bloodthirsty war.  The issues discussed were not issues of the past but were ongoing.  The last dialogue with Ukraine happened over 11 years ago and many things had happened since.  Ukraine sought to protect its territorial integrity and the well-being of its population. The rest of the world was looking on, hoping for an end to the war that respected the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The dialogue had been constructive and frank.  The Committee hoped that its next dialogue with Ukraine would take place in conditions of peace, prosperity and democracy.

    LIUDMYLA SUHAK, Deputy Minister of Justice for European Integration and head of the delegation, thanked the Committee for the dialogue and civil society organizations that had submitted alternative reports.  Ukraine would actively work to implement the Committee’s concluding observations.

    Tens of thousands of Ukrainian citizens were being held by Russia.  More than 170 torture chambers had been identified in Russia and virtually every Ukrainian citizen who had been returned from Russia had suffered some form of torture, which was carried out in a systemic, widespread manner by Russian authorities.  The State party was grateful to the Committee for keeping the issue of Russian war crimes on the international agenda.  Ukraine urged Russia to fully comply with its obligations under international law and to end its illegal war of aggression.  The Committee’s efforts would help to hold Russia to account.

    ___________

     

     

    Produced by the United Nations Information Service in Geneva for use of the media; 
    not an official record. English and French versions of our releases are different as they are the product of two separate coverage teams that work independently.

     

    CAT.007E

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Europe’s hydrogen initiatives and renewable energy auctions to accelerate region’s energy transition, says GlobalData

    Source: GlobalData

    Europe’s hydrogen initiatives and renewable energy auctions to accelerate region’s energy transition, says GlobalData

    Posted in Power

    Three years into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe has significantly diminished its reliance on Russia. Even though the EU has been importing liquified natural gas (LNG) primarily from the US, Norway, and Qatar since the onset of hostilities, the continent has decreased its overall consumption of fossil fuels, particularly the power sector has progressively become cleaner. The structural modifications to the permitting process for renewable energy projects and hydrogen initiatives are expected to further accelerate the region’s energy transition, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

    GlobalData’s latest report, “Europe Renewable Energy Policy Handbook 2025,” reveals that in response to structural changes in permitting, EU countries acted in a united and prompt manner. Merely weeks following Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, the leaders of the 27 EU member states resolved to expedite the EU’s transition away from reliance on Russian fossil fuels by diversifying energy supplies and sources, curtailing the use of fossil fuels, and accelerating the transition to cleaner energy sources. Subsequently, the European Commission introduced the REPowerEU plan—a strategic framework aimed at enhancing the EU’s energy independence and promoting the adoption of clean energy.

    The EU, with its “Fit for 55” package, is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030, thereby aligning its energy targets with an emphasis on renewable energy. In 2023, the EU, under the revised REPowerEU plan, set a goal for a 42.5% renewable energy share by 2030. Member states are encouraged to contribute through their respective National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs). The EU is promoting clean energy through auctions and hydrogen energy.

    Sudeshna Sarmah, Power Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The EU is actively pursuing a variety of strategies to broaden the adoption of renewable technologies. The implementation of the Innovation Fund auction and the Renewable Energy Sources Auction platform is anticipated to garner support for renewable hydrogen projects and serve as a catalyst for renewable power auctions, respectively. These initiatives are expected to foster a favorable environment for investment opportunities within the EU.”

    In the Innovation Fund’s 24th auction, which concluded in February 2025, member countries of the European Economic Area (EEA) were given the opportunity to enhance projects with additional national funding through the Auctions as a Service (AaaS) mechanism. Spain, Lithuania, and Austria chose to participate in the IF24 AaaS, collectively committing over EUR 700 million (approximately $740.3 million) in national funds to support renewable hydrogen production projects within their territories.

    Launched in May 2024, the Renewable Energy Sources (RES) Auctions Platform represents a critical component of the European Commission’s Wind Power Action Plan. This platform consolidates vital information from Member States concerning upcoming renewable energy auctions within the European Union. Its purpose is to provide companies with improved visibility of expected deployment volumes, thus aiding the industry in planning their investments more efficiently.

    Sarmah concludes: “The European Hydrogen Strategy sets an ambitious annual consumption target of 20 million tons of hydrogen by the year 2030. Of this total, approximately 10 million tons are expected to be produced within the European Union. To facilitate the domestic manufacture of such significant volumes of green hydrogen, the development of an infrastructure capable of supporting 40 GW of electrolysis capacity will be essential by the decade’s end, indicating a promising trajectory for the growth of green hydrogen in the region.”

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Press Briefing Transcript: African Department, Spring Meetings 2025

    Source: International Monetary Fund

    April 25, 2025

    PARTICIPANTS:

    Speaker: ABEBE AEMRO SELASSIE, Director, African Department, IMF

    Moderator: KWABENA AKUAMOAH-BOATENG, Communications Officer, IMF

    *  *  *  *  *

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening to all of you here in the room and those joining us online. My name is Kwabena Akuamoah-Boateng.  I am with the Communications Department of the IMF, and

    I will be your moderator for today. 

    Welcome to today’s press briefing on the Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. I am pleased to introduce Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director of the IMF’s African Department.  Abebe will share key insights from our new report titled Recovery Interrupted

    But before I turn to Abebe, a reminder that we have simultaneous interpretation in French and Portuguese, both online and in the room.  And the materials for this press briefing, the report, are all available online at IMF.org/Africa. Abebe, the floor is yours.

    MR. SELASSIE: Good morning and good afternoon to colleagues joining us from the region and beyond. Thank you for being here today for the release of our April Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa.

    Six months ago, I highlighted our region’s sluggish growth, and the steep political and social hurdles governments had to overcome to push through essential reforms.  Today, that fragile recovery faces a new test: the surge of global policy uncertainty so profound it is reshaping the region’s growth trajectory.

    Just when policy efforts began to bear fruit, with regional growth exceeding expectations in 2024, the region’s hard-won recovery has been overtaken by a sudden realignment of global priorities, casting a shadow over the outlook.  We now expect growth in Sub-Saharan Africa to ease to 3.8 percent in 2025 and 4.2 percent in 2026, marked down from our October projections, and these have been driven largely by difficult external conditions: weaker demand abroad, softer commodity prices, and tighter financial markets.

    Any further increase in trade tensions or tightening of financial conditions in advanced economies could further dampen regional confidence, raise borrowing costs further, and delay investment.  Meanwhile, official development assistance to Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to decline further, placing extra strain on the most vulnerable population.

    These external headwinds come on top of longer-standing vulnerabilities. High debt levels constrain the ability of many countries to finance essential services and development priorities.  While inflationary pressures have moderated at the regional level, quite a few countries are still grappling with elevated inflation, necessitating a tighter monetary stance and careful fiscal policy.

    Against this challenging backdrop, our report underscores the importance of calibrating policies to balance growth, social development, and macroeconomic stability.  Building robust fiscal and external buffers is more important than ever, underpinned by credibility and consistency in policymaking.

    In particular, there is a premium on policies to strengthen resilience: mobilize domestic revenue, improve spending efficiency, and strengthen public finance management and fiscal framework and fiscal frameworks to lower borrowing costs.  Reforms that enhance growth, improve the business climate, and foster regional trade integration are also needed to lay the groundwork for private sector-led growth.  High growth is imperative to engender the millions of jobs our region needs. 

    A strong, stable, and prosperous Sub-Saharan Africa is important for its people but also the world.  It is the region that will be the main source of labor and incremental investment and consumption demand in the decades to come.  External support as the region goes through its demographic transition is of tremendous strategic importance for the future of our planet. 

    The Fund is doing its part to help, having dispersed over $65 billion since 2020 and more than $8 billion just over the last year.  Our policy advice and capacity development efforts support more countries still. 

    Thank you and I’m happy to answer your questions. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: Thank you, Abebe. Before we turn to you for your questions, a couple of ground rules, please. If you want to ask a question, raise your hand, and we’ll come to you.  Identify yourself and your organization and please limit it to one question.  For those online, you can use the chat function, or you can also raise your hand, and then we’ll come to you.  I will start from my right. 

    QUESTIONER: Good morning.  Thank you for taking my question.  You mentioned several things in your report.  The recovery that is going on the continent as well as some of the challenges that the continent is facing and the dividends that the continent currently has in its youth.  Leaders on the continent are working — I was at an event yesterday where they are looking at ways to raise funds to develop projects.  So, what is your recommendation for projects?  We’re seeing a need for projects like this as well as revenue mobilization on the continent.  So, is your recommendation to leaders on the continent on how to source these funds that are needed, given that some of the advanced economies are cutting back? 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: All right, any related questions before we go to Abebe?

    QUESTIONER: Abebe, you just made the point that the recovery has been hit by these uncertainties.  Beyond just policy direction, is there any scope to do anything in terms of, for example, maybe you dispense some money though, but maybe a little more to expect — to countries that are coming off defaults and what have you to help in this recovery, even at such a time?  This is also aided by, beyond the fact that some are coming, they have no buffers whatsoever.  And then, coming from defaults, things become very difficult for some of these countries to even have the money to do this.  Could there be any extra funding, even if on a regional level, to back the policy prescriptions that you have proposed? 

    MR. SELASSIE: I think there’s two different points here. The first one is more of a broader meta point, whether financing is the only constraint that is hindering more investment, more robust economic activity, and job creation. Of course, financing plays a role, but it is not the only constraint. It depends on country-to-country circumstances, what sectors we are talking about.  But it really is important to recognize that there are many other things that can be done to engender higher growth to facilitate more investment. 

    One of the issues that we have seen in our region over the years is that a lot of growth has –in many countries– been driven by public spending and public investment for many years.  That, of course, has made a major contribution.  It has facilitated all the investment that we have seen in infrastructure, building schools, building clinics.  So, that has a role to play. But I would say that going forward it will be as important to see if we can find ways in which the private sector is the main engine of growth. So, there are reforms that can be done to facilitate this growth. 

    The second one I am sensing from both your questions is about the circumstance right now where a combination of cuts in aid [and] tighter financing conditions are causing dislocation [and difficulties for governments. We have been, more than anybody else, stressing just what a difficult environment our governments have been facing.  We have been talking about the brutal funding squeeze that countries are under.  It has ebbed a little bit and flowed, you know, like the external market conditions, for example. There have been periods when they have been opened and some of our market access countries have been able to borrow, and then other periods where they have been closed, and we are going through one right now.  And this is on top of the cuts in aid that we have seen and tighter domestic financing conditions.  

    When this more cyclical point is playing out, I think it’s important for countries to be a bit more measured in how they are seeking to tackle their development needs.  So, maybe it means a bit more relying on domestic revenue mobilization, expenditure prioritization when conditions are particularly difficult as they are now, and, as I said earlier, going back to see what can be done to find ways to engender growth over the medium-term.  But it is a difficult period, as we note in our report, and one that is causing quite a bit of dislocation to our countries. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: I will come to the middle. The lady in the front.

    QUESTIONER: My first question is around recovery, of course, your reports are called “interrupted”.  So, with recovery slipping, growth downgraded, debt pressures mountain, is Sub-Saharan Africa at risk of another lost decade?  Because in your report you mentioned that the last four years have been quite turbulent for Africa, and we are trying to get back on track.  What is IMF’s message on bold actions that leaders must take now to avoid being left behind in the global economy and to avoid Africa being in a permanent state of vulnerability?  Because we always hear that we are in a permanent state of vulnerability.  Then for Nigeria, macros are under threat right now.  How can the government — what are your suggestions on how the government can actually push through deep reforms that deliver tangible growth for its people?  Of course, for your report, you did mention the millions and millions of people that you know live below $2.15 a day. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: Any more Nigeria questions? I will take the gentleman right here.

    QUESTIONER: In your report you said that debt has stabilized.  And when you look at Nigeria’s debt profile, what insights can you share as to where the borrowings are going to?  Are you seeing more of long-term loans or short-term loans?  So that’s one.  So, what — recently the World Bank expressed concerns about the performance of Nigeria’s statistical body, saying that the institution is performing Sub optimally.  Do you share that sentiment?  Thank you very much. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: I will take one more on Nigeria. The gentleman in the first row.

    QUESTIONER: I [would] like to know in specific terms, Nigeria has already undertaken several reforms, especially removed oil subsidies and floated the naira.  What more specific things do you expect of Nigeria in terms of reform?

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: All right, thank you. Abebe?

    MR. SELASSIE: So, in terms of the reforms that have been going on in Nigeria and the particularities of the challenge, the first thing to note is that we have been really impressed by how much reforms have been undertaken in recent years. Most notably, trying to go to the heart of the cause of the macroeconomic imbalances in Nigeria, which are related to the fact that, oil subsidies were taking up a very large share of the limited tax revenues that the government have and not necessarily being used in the most effective way to help the most vulnerable people. The issues related to the imbalances on the external side with the exchange rate extremely out of line. 

    So it’s been really good to see the government taking these on, head-on, address those, and also beginning to roll out the third component of the reforms that we have been advocating for and of course, the government has been pursuing, which is to expand social protection, to target generalized subsidies to help the most vulnerable.  This has all been very good to see, but more can be done, particularly on the latter front, expanding social protection and enhancing a lot more transparency in the oil sector so that the removal of subsidies does translate into flow of revenue into the government budget.  So, there is still a bit more work to do in these areas. 

    We just had a mission in Nigeria where there was extensive discussions on these and other issues on the macroeconomic area, but also other areas where there is a need to do reforms to engender more private sector investment and also how more resources can be devoted to help Nigeria generate the revenues it so desperately needs to build more schools, more universities, and, of course, more infrastructure.  So, there is a comprehensive set of reforms that Nigeria can pursue that would help engender more growth and help diversify the economy away from reliance on oil.  And this diversification is, of course, all the more important given what we are seeing happening to commodity prices.  So, I think this is an important agenda. 

    Second, as the government is doing this, of course there will be a financing need.  And here what is needed is really a judicious and agile way of dealing with the financing challenges the country faces.  In the long run, the financing gap can only be filled by permanent sources such as revenue mobilization.  But in the interim, carefully looking at all the options the country must borrow in a contained way will be part of that solution.  And I think the government has been going about this prudently and cautiously so far, and we are encouraged by that. 

    And lastly, on data issues in Nigeria we really applaud the effort the government’s making to try and revise and upgrade data quality in Nigeria.  This task is not an easy one in our countries, given the extent of informality there is, given the extent of relative price changes that play out in our economies.  So doing this cautiously is what is needed methodically.  And that is exactly what we see happening.  We welcome, though, the efforts the government is making because without good data, it is difficult to make good policies.  So, we really applaud the effort the government is making to try and upgrade data quality. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: We will take a round of questions online.

    QUESTIONER: There are bills in the UK Parliament and the New York State Assembly that aim to force holdout private creditors to accept debt treatments on comparable terms to other creditors and to limit or stop such litigation.  Are these bills needed, do you think, or is the current international debt architecture sufficient?  So, you know, IMF, DSAs, creditor groups, the common framework, where applicable. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: Please go ahead with your question.

    QUESTIONER: Earlier this month, the IMF reached a staff-level agreement with Burkina Faso to complete the Third Review of the country’s program.  So as part of the review, the IMF allowed a greater fiscal flexibility, allowing Burkina Faso to raise its public deficit target to 4 percent, up from the 2 percent cap set by the West African Economic Monetary Union.  So, given that the country’s challenges, such as persistent insecurity, high social demands, are common across the region, wouldn’t it be wiser to consider applying this flexibility more broadly to the West African Economic Monetary Union?  And my second question will be about the downward revision of the growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 in Sub-Saharan Africa.  Does the IMF view this new crisis – I am talking about the global uncertainty and the recent U.S. tariff measures.  Does the IMF view this crisis as potentially more severe and with broader consequences for the region than previous shocks such as COVID and the war in Ukraine? 

    MR. SELASSIE: On the first question on debt workouts and the challenges there, I am not fully informed about the specifics of the bills that Rachel, you are talking about, indeed, we have seen from time to time some private creditor groups holding out, trying to hold out, but I am not sure that a bill is what’s needed, but rather, force of argument to try and bring people to the table. And in recent restructurings, at least I am not aware of this being the main hindrance in advancing discussions.  There have been many other factors, including just the complexity of the current creditor landscape, that have played a role. 

    On Burkina Faso, flexibility under the program or the deficit targets for the WAEMU countries more generally, just it is important to distinguish between particular years’ fiscal deficit targets that the government wants to pursue and we, incorporate in the program and just the more medium-term criteria, convergence criteria that there is for the WAEMU countries. 

    So, the 3 percent target criteria are for the medium- to long-term.  And it has been very clear that when there are shocks or when there are pressing social development needs, countries do have the scope to deviate from that.  In fact, often the constraint on the Sahel countries has been not having enough, sufficient, enough financing to be able to meet these to advance development objectives.  The other constraint of course is that overall, the more you exceed this 3 percent target and add to the overall debt burden, the more you are going to have – you are likely to build up debt vulnerabilities. 

    So, in the work that we do with countries, whether it is Burkina Faso or other WAEMU countries or indeed beyond, what we try and help with is of course to help countries strike this balance between addressing the immediate and pressing needs that they have while avoiding medium-term debt sustainability problems.  I think one is just thinking about how to strike this balance.  And then second, we put resources on the table very cheaply to help countries, avoid, at least in the near term, more difficult financing difficulties.  So, for Burkina and others, it is just about striking this balance.

    And on growth, whether this latest shock is as bad for the region as the previous ones. I think it is really important also to point out that as difficult, I mean the last four or five years have been incredibly difficult time for our countries, a lot of challenges, a lot of dislocation, but there is also been quite a lot of resilience, and I think that is important to stress.  I would note that, even now, it is this year, 11 out of the 20 fastest growing economies in the world are from Sub-Saharan Africa.  So, there are quite a lot of countries that are going to be sustaining significant growth in the region.  So, we should also not lose sight of this resilience. 

    Second, and more broadly, the buildup of uncertainties I think is very negative.  And this is interrupting what we are seeing in terms of a recovery.  But growth is not, we are not projecting growth to collapse.  And our hope is that as things calm down, the region can resume its growth trajectory also.

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: We will take three more questions online, then we will come back to the room.

    QUESTIONER: I wanted to know about Senegal, in terms of whether funds would be repaid after the misreporting of data and if the IMF has learned anything from that?  And also, just if you can, the status of the IMF’s programs and even operations in Sudan and South Sudan? 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: Please go ahead.

    QUESTIONER: The IMF is urging countries to focus on domestic revenue mobilization.  But you may have seen that South Africa’s Finance Minister has withdrawn the VAT increase that he had proposed in the budget, in the face of opposition from coalition partners.  Does the IMF see any alternative sources of revenue that are feasible for the South African government as the parties hoped?  And are there any lessons here for other countries trying to mobilize domestic revenue?                                                         

    QUESTIONER: Building on the question that Hilary has asked that the REO does make the case for domestic revenue mobilization, and you made that argument, I believe, in the last two Regional Economic Outlook reports as well.  But poverty is still endemic.  Incomes, as far as I can tell, have not really recovered to pre-pandemic levels.  So other than broadcast to tax exemptions what else can be done to raise tax-to-GDP ratios?  One last question on this.  Has there been any progress that has been made in the Sovereign Debt Roundtable in deciding how debt from Afreximbank, and Trade and Development Bank should be treated, at least under the common framework for countries like Ghana and Zambia?  Now, do they qualify to not have their debt restructured in the same way that the IMF, the World Bank’s credit lines?

    MR. SELASSIE: On Senegal, I was recently in Dakar for discussions building on work that our team has been doing. What we are waiting for is the government to finalize the work that’s ongoing.  Right now, the audits are going on and reconciliation work is going on. 

    On the extent of domestic and external debt.  We have been very clear in welcoming the transparency and really robust and collegial way in which the government has been engaging on the issues that have arisen in the misreporting case and we look forward to the numbers stabilizing, and engaging in discussions on the next steps in terms of bringing the, the findings to our Executive Board and next steps in our engagement with Senegal. 

    On South Sudan, it has just been a difficult period of course for South Sudan.  They have been hosting hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing from the conflict in the north.  The conflict has also interrupted, disrupted heavily their main source of tax revenue, oil exports through the pipeline.  So, it’s been a really wrenching period.  Over the last three, four years we have provided, you know, we have been trying to provide South Sudan with emergency financing and trying to find a way in which we can engage with a more structured longer-term program.  We remain hopeful that we are going to be able to do that.  But first and foremost, I think we need to see what can be done to make sure that the policy making environment is as robust and as strong as it is, and as transparent, so we can come in, step in and support South Sudan.

    On revenue mobilization, I want to just first link this to the point I made earlier that what we have observed and again there is a risk of generalizing, but what we’ve observed over the last 10, 15 years in the region is that governments have made a very significant effort to invest in really important infrastructure needs in building schools, in building health clinics and much else.  And you see very positive outcomes.  Look at the electricity coverage in our region, look at the human development indicators and how much they have moved over the years in the region. 

    But we have also seen that despite a lot of investment, for example, in electricity generation capacity and electricity coverage in our countries, many roads are being built.  The returns of all this investment have not been captured in the tax revenue, which is one of the points, the pressure points where debt levels have gone up and the interest-to-revenue ratio.  So, the interest payment-to-revenue ratio has also been rising.  And this has been one of the key points of vulnerability in many economies and why a few countries have gotten into debt difficulty and needed to restructure. 

    So going forward, I think it’s very clear that to be able to continue investing; to be able to continue expanding economies and the government doing its core function, it has to find more ways other than borrowing to address this. 

    Now, in the past, governments have been quick to cut spending, and that has, we found, again and again, to be very detrimental to development progress and growth outcomes.  I think this, again, at the risk of generalizing, was the approach that was generally pursued in the 1980s and found to be very problematic, very challenging, very depressing to growth.  So, we would very much love for countries to avoid this. When there are pressing spending needs, there’s generally only a couple of ways that you can finance this.  Spending cuts or revenue mobilization.  You can borrow, of course, but as I said, borrowing is not optimal. 

    Now, this doesn’t mean revenue mobilization is easy.  Far, far from it. It requires not only political engagement, but also a lot of communication, a lot of effort to show that the resources the government is trying to generate are going to be going to the right areas to help strengthen the social contract.  So, it’s a deep and engaged process, and we are very, very cognizant of that.  But I do think that this is the most optimal way, the most economically sensible way in which our countries can help address the tremendous development needs that we have.

    Now, specifically on South Africa, ultimately when issues like this arise, these are deeply domestic political issues to be resolved as to what the best way to do the financing is.  So, if a tax rate increase for a particular tax is not possible, then maybe finding ways to expand the tax base, maybe trying different tax angles or if all of those are not possible, then revisiting spending priorities may be one of the ways that countries must handle this.  And this is typically what we see playing out in countries in the region when financing constraints are binding. 

    So, whether it is in Kenya, South Africa, or other countries the issue of revenue mobilization is a live one, but one that is extremely complex.  We are very cognizant of that.  And one that requires quite a lot of consensus building, quite a lot of discussion to be able to advance, and of course, broader societal support.  And we absolutely see countries engaging in this and do what we can to help bring lessons from other countries where we are asked to.

    Then there was a question about the GSDR.  So, this Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, this is the initiative launched by the Fund and the Bank to try and bring creditors and debtors together around the table to find ways in which debt work[outs] can be easier because you are discussing general principles rather than country-specific debt restructuring issues. And we have seen this making quite a lot of progress. Perhaps the most recent development has been the preparation of a debt work[out] playbook that is a very helpful document that has been put out building on the experience of recent work[outs].  What has worked particularly well.  What kind of information sharing ahead of debt work[outs] have been helpful in terms of accelerating debt processes.  Debt restructurings are one of the most contentious and challenging issues that there are between states, between creditors and debtors, and it requires quite a lot of discussion, and it is not such an easy thing to do, including what the parameter of debt should be.  I think one of the questions that was raised is about the debt parameter.  This is fundamentally an issue for the debtor countries and creditors to resolve, and intra-creditor disputes also have to be done. 

    So, in terms of the principles that generally we see creditors apply when these kinds of disputes arise about what the right parameter should be or not and who gets preferential treatment. I think there’s generally been two rules of thumb. One is that the terms in which new financing is being provided or the financing is provided, whether it’s commercial or concessional has been a factor that most creditors look at in terms of whether a particular credit should be included in the parameter or not, and then also the extent to which new financing is being made available.  So, what differentiates senior creditors like the IMF, the World Bank, of course, is that for most countries we operate providing concessional financing very long-term.  And we are the ones that come in and provide financing consistently through crisis and otherwise. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: We have time for one more round of questions. I will start with the gentleman in the front here. 

    QUESTIONER: The U.S. is your largest shareholder, and we are seeing mixed messages this week from the Treasury Secretary mentioning that he remains committed to the Fund but also calling on you to hold countries accountable to program performance, empower staff to walk away if reform commitment is lacking. 

    So, I wanted to ask you, should we expect the IMF spigot to start closing in response to U.S. pressure?  Or if not, are you changing your approach to countries, what you are telling them and how to deal with their issues?  Are you being a little more stringent in your requirements? 

    You have talked about Senegal, maybe Ghana, Ethiopia, related to that issue of the U.S stepping in.  The CEMAC negotiations this week, we saw American energy companies working with the CEMAC on repatriation of funds dedicated to the rehabilitation of oil sites.  I’m wondering if you have a stance on that, what the IMF position is?  I understand the U.S is trying to get the IMF involved in that.

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: All right, thanks. Gentleman. 

    QUESTIONER: Kenyan authorities here have indicated the need to present a credible fiscal framework as they try and unlock a new program for Kenya.  Would you offer more color into the discussions this week, noting again that the same credibility questions led to the cancellation or the termination of the program at its final review?  

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: We have a question online “what is the IMF’s view on Kenya’s debt position?”

    MR. SELASSIE: So, on the first question, I would like to refer you to Kristalina who gave comprehensive responses to the Secretary’s IMFC Statement. What I want to add though is that in the region, in Sub-Saharan Africa, in terms of programs, the calibration of reforms, incorporation of reforms, I would say that we are always in terms of each program has its particularities and what we always try and do in these programs is make sure that we’re striking a balance of helping countries address the long term challenges and also the cyclical challenges that are often the ones that cause them to come to us.  And I would say that I don’t think there are many countries that think that the adjustment efforts that they’re being asked to make are easy ones.

    On CEMAC.  Just to be very clear there is this dispute that is going on between member states, the BEAC, and oil companies with respect to what are called restitution funds.  The funds under contracts that countries have with oil companies are meant to be available to help restore the sites where oil is extracted back to their pre-extraction standards. 

    What has been a bit frustrating is that we are not privy to the contents of these documents. We have been calling on members and the companies involved to be transparent about this, to publish these documents.  They are after all documents that are about how countries natural resource wealth are used.  And we’ve been on record going seven, eight, nine years pushing for production sharing agreements, the terms of these things to be published so that each side can hold the other accountable.  I think that is the first thing that could be done to bring more transparency and light and understanding to the rest of the world about what is going on in these discussions. 

    Second, we have also made it clear to both parties that given that we do not have full information, it is difficult for us to know what to say.  But in general, any encumbrances in terms of how we look at foreign exchange reserves and these standards are published, any encumbrances like the type that we think there may be in the document, i.e., that is the expectation that these resources will be used for specific purposes means they’re not general use reserves.  So, they would not be classified as part of reserves. 

    On Kenya, we have had a very strong engagement with Kenya over the years and will continue to have such engagement going forward.  As we have noted, government has asked for a follow-on program to try and address the remaining challenges in Kenya, and we are discussing how to do that including in the context of these meetings. 

    It has been good to hear and see that the economy has been performing quite well in some parts.  Particularly the external adjustment front seems to have been proceeding well.  The current account has been narrowing.  So, there are quite a lot of strengths.  But also of course there remain fiscal challenges which were a significant part of the last program’s objectives that need to be advanced.  So, we are going to engage with the government and do everything that we can to be able to help it go forward. 

    MR. AKUAMOAH-BOATENG: Unfortunately, that is all the time we have. So, if you have any questions that we didn’t get to, please send them to me or to Media at IMF.org and we will try and get back to you as soon as possible.  So, also to mention that the report is now available at IMF.org/Africa.  The Spring Meetings continue.  Later this morning, we have the press briefing for the European Department and later in the afternoon we have the IMFC, and the Western Hemisphere Department press briefings. 

    On behalf of Abebe and the African and Communications Departments, thank you all for coming to this press briefing and see you next time. 

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Kwabena Akuamoah-Boateng

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI USA: Reed, Smith Lead National Security Lawmakers in Denouncing Trump Ultimatum for Ukraine

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Rhode Island Jack Reed
    WASHINGTON, DC – Today, U.S. Senators Jack Reed (D-RI), Ranking Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and U.S. Representative Adam Smith (D-WA), Ranking Member of the House Armed Services Committee led a joint statement in response to the ultimatum that President Donald Trump and his Administration are forcing on Ukraine, noting that the President puts pressure only on Ukraine while giving “Putin exactly what he wants.”
    Smith and Reed were joined in issuing the joint statement by U.S. Representatives Gregory Meeks (D-NY), Ranking Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee; Jim Himes (D-CT), Ranking Member of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence; and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), Ranking Member of the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the U.S. and the Chinese Communist Party; and U.S. Senators Chris Coons (D-DE), Ranking Member of the Senate Defense Appropriations Subcommittee; and Mark Kelly (D-AZ), a member of both the Senate Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committees. 
    The lawmakers expressed deep concern about the Trump Administration’s one-sided approach to negotiating an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine, stating:
    “President Trump’s ultimatum to Ukraine would give Putin exactly what he wants and force Ukraine to accept a Russian-dictated plan that would leave them vulnerable to future attack. If the president follows through, his peace plan would fail and he would be abandoning Ukraine.
    “Ukraine has already agreed to an unconditional general ceasefire. Putin has not. During this conflict, Ukraine has continually exceeded expectations on the battlefield and has continued to inflict huge losses on Russia. They have bent over backward to accommodate the administration’s focus on a minerals deal. It makes no sense to force Ukraine to cede land illegally seized in Russian invasions now and remove economic sanctions against Russia. Rather than seeking concessions from Russia, the administration is shifting the pain to Ukraine. This ultimatum would reward Putin’s aggression and only allow Russia time to rearm and attack Ukraine again, undoing the work of American service members and taxpayers, partners and allies, and valiant Ukrainian fighters defending their sovereignty.
    “It also grants Putin’s war aims something no other American president has done—legitimacy. This plan risks widening the conflict and threatening even more catastrophic fallout. It would be a sign that America can no longer be trusted to stand with allies and partners. It would undermine the strength and stability of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the coalition of over 50 countries that have come together to defend Ukraine, and the rules-based order that has held that no country should be allowed to take another country’s territory through sheer force. The ramifications would be felt worldwide and for generations to come. You can be sure that China, Iran, North Korea, and global extremists are watching closely.
    “For the sake of U.S. national security and global stability, we urge the president to withdraw this demand and shift pressure from Ukraine to Russia to conclude a durable and just peace.”

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Keynote Speech – Canning House Mexico-UK Summit

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Speech

    Keynote Speech – Canning House Mexico-UK Summit

    During the Canning House’s Mexico-UK Summit, His Majesty’s Ambassador to Mexico, Susannah Goshko, highlight the bilateral opportunity between our countries.

    The UK-Mexico Partnership in 2025 

    Good morning everyone.  It’s great to be here at Canning House’s inaugural Mexico-UK Summit.  Canning House plays a hugely important role in bringing the UK and Mexico closer together.

    I would therefore like to begin by thanking Jeremy Browne and his team for organising this Summit and fostering the valuable exchange of ideas between business, government and academia.

    As many of you will know, I arrived in Mexico at the end of last year: so I am now just a few months into my posting as British Ambassador to Mexico. And what a time to arrive.  A new government in Mexico and a new government in the UK.  A world that is changing more rapidly than any of us could have predicted.  Let me start therefore by talking about the bilateral opportunity, before coming on to how the UK and Mexico can work together on the global stage.

    The relationship between the UK and Mexico dates back over 200 years.  One of the first things I did in my role here was accompany the High Sheriff of Cornwall to Hidalgo where British miners – from Cornwall – first arrived in the 19th century, drawn by the opportunities that Mexico offered.  They brought with them football and Cornish pasties – both of which live on to this day, although the pasties turn out to be a little more picante than we are used to them in Cornwall.

    The first record of a football match being played in Mexico was between those Cornish miners and the Mexicans who lived in Hidalgo.  On that occasion – for perhaps the first and last time – the Brits beat the Mexicans.  And this is a nice anecdote but actually, it’s more than that.  It’s evidence of the culture and history that continue to bind us today.

    In fact, our rich cultural and people-to-people links are one of the most important aspects of this relationship: whether it’s the numerous Mexicans who play in the English Premier League, the more than 3000 Mexican students have been awarded Chevening scholarships since 1983, or the fact that the largest number of Beatlemaniacs in the world are not in fact in the UK but are right here in Mexico.

    But the policy agenda is – perhaps – even more exciting.  When the new government in the UK was elected last summer, it was on the basis of a number of very clear priorities – or missions as the PM has described them.  These include:

    • Reducing barriers to opportunity for all
    • Building a health system fit for the future
    • Making the UK a green energy super power by 2030
    • And kickstarting economic growth.

    I have been struck in my first few months here, how much of that agenda resonates with what the government in Mexico is trying to achieve. In the language we use and in the priorities we choose, there is much alignment between our approaches.

    The growth agenda

    Let me start by talking about economic growth. Growth is at the heart of the UK government’s agenda because – like Mexico – the British government has made important commitments around addressing social inequality.  To meet these ambitious commitments, it will be essential for us both to have thriving economies.

    So all British diplomats have been given clear marching orders: we must do all we can to build economic prosperity for the UK but also for the countries in which we are working. And what does that mean here? Well, trade between the UK and Mexico is good: Our markets are complementary, so we are not in competition with each other, and we have an more or less equally balanced trading relationship.

    But we can afford to be much more ambitious: two way trade is currently worth around £6.1bn a year – as two G20 countries, both committed to open and free trade – this should and could be much higher.  It is in both of our interests to ensure that it is, if we are to build the equitable and prosperous societies we are both seeking.

    The first step on this journey will be Mexican ratification of the UK’s accession to CPTPP which we hope will happen shortly.   This will accelerate growth by deepening British and Mexican participation in our respective supply chains. It will diversify our trade in innovative sectors such as electromobility, health-tech and advanced manufacturing and will provide greater certainty to UK investors in Mexico and Mexican investors wanting to set up and grow their business in the UK.

    At the same time, a new industrial strategy in the UK and Plan Mexico here will drive growth in both our countries in sectors of mutual interest and expertise, among them healthcare and life sciences, financial services, and education. We must grasp this opportunity.

    There is much success to build upon: last year we saw innovative British bank Revolut secure their banking licence in Mexico. Astrazeneca opened their second largest global research plant in Jalisco. Orbia expanded their presence in the UK with an additional £75m investment, creating 100 new jobs.

    These are just a small selection of success stories from the last twelve months.  I am confident that there will be many more to come driven by a determination from both our governments to put sustainable growth at the heart of our plans.

    Climate

    The second area where I see enormous potential is on climate and energy.  I am delighted that Minister for Environment, Alicia Barcena will speak later in the day. Minister Barcena has been a great friend of the UK as well as a champion of our shared commitment to tackling the climate and nature emergency.

    This is one of the most profound threats to face us and future generations. We must work together to ensure a liveable planet for all. Our future prosperity and security depends on what we do now.

    For the British government, combatting climate change and biodiversity loss must be done alongside eradicating social inequality. We believe firmly that this can be achieved without compromising economic growth. In fact, done right, we believe that the energy transition can be an economic advantage.  As testament to this, I offer the fact that in the UK we have reduced emissions by 54% whilst also growing our GDP by 84% on 1990 levels.

    Under the leadership of President Sheinbaum and Prime Minister Starmer we have an unparalleled opportunity to deepen our cooperation in this area.

    When I presented my credentials to the President some two weeks ago, I congratulated her for her leadership on Mexico’s NDC commitment and the newly announced Net Zero goal. The UK stands ready to offer any support that we can in their development and implementation.

    Our vision to do this is one where there’s space for every part of society to contribute and benefit from ambitious climate action. We have, for instance, worked with local communities and civil society in Sonora to pilot solar energy projects, increasing access to electricity and diversifying sources of income for families.

    And our scientific and academic links are also a fundamental asset to tackle climate change. Mexican and British research institutions are working together to deploy solutions to manage sargassum proliferation, which has greatly impacted the tourism industry in Mexico and many Caribbean nations.

    And there’s, of course, the role of private sector. No climate target will ever be met without industries and financiers actively playing a part in addressing the climate and biodiversity crisis. Private investment in innovative technologies such as offshore wind energy will be essential to boost renewable energy generation in Mexico whilst ensuring the protection of energy sovereignty. Many British companies are keen to be part of this journey.

    While the task might feel unsurmountable at times, I am convinced that by working together, Mexico and the UK can bring us closer to building a liveable, more equitable planet for all.

    The Global Context

    Now let me come on and talk a bit about the global context.  Of course, to ensure that prosperous democracies like ours can thrive we need geopolitical stability. Across the world we are living in uncertain times with brutal conflicts still waging in Sudan, the Middle East and Ukraine.

    Mexico’s historic bridging role in multilateral fora means it is uniquely placed to bring countries together in support of our shared values of democracy, sovereignty and a commitment to human rights.

    During my career, I have observed the vast experience and talent of Mexican diplomats in multilateral fora, sharing our concern to protect the institutions that ensure world peace. Their ability to bring together different points of view and chart a path forward that everyone can agree is part of Mexico’s USP: one of my formative memories is of watching a Mexican diplomat rescue a biodiversity negotiation from the brink of collapse at the eleventh hour and find an almost impossible consensus.

    In this increasingly complex world, we need this more than ever. Those countries that share our commitment to the rules based international order must continue working together to ensure that multilateral institutions remain strong and relevant.

    For example, in February, the UK and Mexico united with other nations in the UN to mark the third anniversary of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    The security threats we face have been transformed in the last decade. We are all confronting the unprecedented rate at which threats to information integrity are growing.  Misinformation and disinformation are both more common than ever and increasingly difficult to distinguish from the truth.

    As democratic governments, the UK and Mexico must be proactive about countering this threat. We also have a responsibility to uphold the principles of an open civil society and free media to take on this challenge. I’m proud therefore that here in Mexico we support a vibrant Civil Society Group ‘Las Linternas’ to strengthen their fact checking, identify false stories and build media literacy. Our resilience to these threats domestically depends – like so much else – on our ability to work together.

    Conclusion

    So there is much to do. Perhaps I’ll end where I began: Lord Canning – after whom Canning House is named – was the first British foreign secretary, some 200 years ago, to devote a large proportion of his time and energies to Latin America and to foresee the important political and economic role the region would one day play.

    We are once again at a moment of enormous geopolitical change.  We too should choose to strengthen and trust in this bilateral relationship.  Together I am confident that the UK and Mexico can do brilliant things.

    Thank you.

    Updates to this page

    Published 25 April 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI Security: NATO Secretary General visits United States in preparation for The Hague Summit

    Source: NATO

    NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte concluded a visit to the United States on Friday (25 April) focused on talks with senior US officials, including a meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House.

    On Thursday morning, the Secretary General met with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon. He also took part in a roundtable discussion hosted by The Heritage Foundation on transatlantic security, burden sharing, and the upcoming NATO Summit in The Hague. Later in the day, Mr Rutte met with President Trump at the White House, as well as with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz.

    Speaking to media afterwards, Mr Rutte described a very good meeting focused primarily on the upcoming NATO Summit in The Hague as well as ongoing efforts to bring a just and lasting end to the war against Ukraine. He noted the growing consensus around a significant increase in defence spending from European Allies and Canada. “This is necessary to make sure that we stay safe. So this is really a NATO which is stronger, which is fairer, which is also more lethal in terms of being able to defend NATO territory,” he said.

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: International agreement to boost British business

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Press release

    International agreement to boost British business

    Businesses will save time and money on repetitive legal action thanks to new international rules coming into force across the UK on 1 July.

    • Agreement will cut delays and costs for UK businesses
    • UK judgments against foreign suppliers will be recognised by participating countries overseas
    • This will boost the UK legal sector and drive economic growth, part of the government’s Plan for Change

    Businesses will save time and money on repetitive legal action thanks to new international rules coming into force across the UK on 1 July.

    The UK Government signed up to the Hague 2019 Convention, which means other countries will more easily recognise and enforce UK court judgments in cross-border disputes – sparing firms from costly and repetitive court battles.

    Currently, if a UK business wins a case in a UK court against a company based in another country, business leaders face the threat of time-consuming enforcement processes or even identical legal action overseas for the same dispute – causing delays, increasing costs and creating confusion to the consumer.

    The new rules will provide a simpler enforcement route to existing complex systems, giving one clear consistent set of shared rules – that the UK helped shape – making the process easier for everyone.

    Streamlining the process will save businesses time and money, encourage foreign companies to use the UK’s world-class lawyers and courts to settle their disputes and grow the economy overall.

    Justice Minister, Lord Ponsonby, said:

    This Convention delivers real benefits for British businesses dealing with international disputes.

    As part of our Plan for Change we’re boosting UK firms’ confidence to trade by minimising legal costs and ensuring justice across borders, all while cementing Britain’s role as a global legal powerhouse committed to the rule of law.

    The Convention will enhance international legal collaboration. It will apply to judgments in civil and commercial matters, strengthening the UK’s position as a global hub for dispute resolution.

    The 2019 Hague Convention is already being applied by 29 parties, from Ukraine to EU countries, with Uruguay joining last year. This means UK civil and commercial judgments will be recognised and enforced in these nations and that the UK will recognise judgments made in their courts.

    With 91 members of the Hague Conference on Private International Law (HCCH), a major multilateral forum for private international law rules which has produced numerous conventions including the 2019 Hague Convention, Hague 2019 has a potentially global reach. 

    The Convention will apply to judgments given in proceedings that commence on or after 1 July 2025 across the entire United Kingdom or in other participating countries.

    Updates to this page

    Published 25 April 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump can’t decide who to blame for a failing peace deal that would only lead to further conflict

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

    After a second consecutive night of deadly Russian air attacks – against the capital Kyiv on April 23 and the eastern Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad on April 24 – a ceasefire in Ukraine seems as unrealistic as ever.

    With Russian commitment to a deal clearly lacking, the situation is not helped by US president Donald Trump. He can’t quite seem to decide who he will ultimately blame if his efforts to agree a ceasefire fall apart.

    Before the strikes on Kyiv, Trump blamed Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, for holding up a deal by refusing to recognise Crimea as Russian. The following day, he chided Vladimir Putin for the attacks, calling them “not necessary, and very bad timing” and imploring Putin to stop.

    The main stumbling bloc on the path to a ceasefire is what a final peace agreement might look like and what concessions Kyiv – and its European allies – will accept. Ukraine’s and Europe’s position on this is unequivocal: no recognition of the illegal Russian annexation.

    This position is also backed by opinion polls in Ukraine, which indicate only limited support for some, temporary concessions to Russia. The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, also suggested that temporarily giving up territory “can be a solution”.

    The deal that Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff apparently negotiated over three rounds of talks in Russia was roundly rejected by Ukraine and Britain, France and Germany, who lead the “coalition of the willing” of countries pledging support for Ukraine.




    Read more:
    Could Trump be leading the world into recession?


    This prompted Witkoff and US secretary of state Marco Rubio to pull out of follow-up talks in London on April 24. These ended with a fairly vacuous statement about a commitment to continuing “close coordination and … further talks soon”.

    And even this now appears as quite a stretch. Coinciding with Witkoff’s fourth trip to see Putin on April 25, European and Ukrainian counterproposals were released that reject most of the terms offered by Trump or at least defer their negotiation until after a ceasefire is in place.

    Why is it failing?

    The impasse is unsurprising. Washington’s proposal included a US commitment to recognise Crimea as Russian, a promise that Ukraine would not join Nato and accept Moscow’s control of the territories in eastern Ukraine that it currently illegally occupies. It also included lifting all sanctions against Russia.

    In other words, Ukraine would give up large parts of territory and receive no security guarantees, while Russia is rewarded with reintegration into the global economy.

    It is the territorial concessions asked of Kyiv which are especially problematic. Quite apart from the fact that they are in fundamental breach of basic principles of international law – the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states – they are unlikely to provide solid foundations for a durable peace.

    Much like the idea of Trump’s Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, to divide Ukraine like post-1945 Berlin, it betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of what, and who, drives this war.

    Recent London peace talks in April failed to make progress.

    Kellogg later clarified that he was not suggesting a partition of Ukraine, but his proposal would have exactly the same effect as Trump’s most recent offer.

    Both proposals accept the permanent loss to Ukraine of territory that Russia currently controls. Where they differ is that Kellogg wants to introduce a European-led reassurance force west of the river Dnipro, while leaving the defence of remaining Ukrainian-controlled territory to Kyiv’s armed forces.

    If accepted by Russia – unlikely as this is given Russia’s repeated and unequivocal rejection of European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine – it would provide at best a minimal security guarantee for a part of Ukrainian territory.

    What it would almost inevitably mean, however, is a repeat of the permanent ceasefire violations along the disengagement zone in eastern Ukraine where Russian and Ukrainian forces would continue to face each other.

    This is what happened after the ill-fated Minsk accords of 2014 and 2015, which were meant to settle the conflict after Russia’s invasion of Donbas in 2014. A further Russian invasion could be just around the corner once the Kremlin felt that it had sufficiently recovered from the current war.




    Read more:
    Ukraine deal: Europe has learned from the failed 2015 Minsk accords with Putin. Trump has not


    The lack of a credible deterrent is one key difference between the situation in Ukraine as envisaged by Washington and other historical and contemporary parallels, including Korea and Cyprus.

    Korea was partitioned in 1945 and has been protected by a large US military presence since the Korean war in 1953. After the Turkish invasion of 1974, Cyprus was divided between Greek and Turkish Cypriots along a partition line secured by an armed UN peacekeeping mission.

    Trump has ruled out any US troop commitment as part of securing a ceasefire in Ukraine. And the idea of a UN force in Ukraine, briefly floated during the presidency of Petro Poroshenko between 2014 and 2019, never got any traction, and is not likely to be accepted by Putin now.

    The assumed parallels with the situation in Germany after the second world war are even more tenuous. Not only did Nazi Germany unconditionally surrender in May 1945 but its division into allied zones of occupation was formally and unanimously agreed by the victorious allies in Potsdam in August 1945.

    Muddling up Potsdam and Munich?

    By the time two separate German states of East and West Germany were established in 1949, the western allies had fallen out with Stalin but remained firmly united in Nato and western Europe. So the west German state was firmly protected under the US nuclear umbrella.

    The agreements made in Potsdam didn’t have the same implication of permanence as the US suggestion to formally recognise Crimea as Russian territory. The suggestion was always that the allied forces would pull out of Germany at some stage, and restore the country’s sovereignty.

    Most importantly, the allies did not reward the aggressor in the war or create the conditions for merely a brief interruption for an aggressor’s revisionist agenda.

    After all, what has driven Putin’s war against Ukraine is his conviction that “the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”.

    The Trump administration deludes itself that it is applying the lessons of Potsdam by recognising Russia’s territorial conquests in Ukraine and handing them over. Instead it is falling into the trap of the 1938 Munich Agreement. Negotiators in Munich tried, but failed, to avoid the second world war by appeasing and not deterring an insatiable aggressor – a historical lesson that doesn’t need repeating.

    Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

    Tetyana Malyarenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Trump can’t decide who to blame for a failing peace deal that would only lead to further conflict – https://theconversation.com/trump-cant-decide-who-to-blame-for-a-failing-peace-deal-that-would-only-lead-to-further-conflict-254841

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Government signs new international agreement in boost to British business

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments 3

    Press release

    Government signs new international agreement in boost to British business

    Businesses will save time and money on repetitive legal action thanks to new international rules coming into force across the UK on 1 July.

    • Agreement will cut delays and costs for UK businesses
    • UK judgments against foreign suppliers will be recognised by participating countries overseas
    • This will boost the UK legal sector and drive economic growth, part of the government’s Plan for Change

    The UK Government has signed up to the Hague 2019 Convention, which means other countries will more easily recognise and enforce UK court judgments in cross-border disputes – sparing firms from costly and repetitive court battles.

    Currently, if a UK business wins a case in a UK court against a company based in another country, business leaders face the threat of time-consuming enforcement processes or even identical legal action overseas for the same dispute – causing delays, increasing costs and creating confusion to the consumer.

    The new rules will provide a simpler enforcement route to existing complex systems, giving one clear consistent set of shared rules – that the UK helped shape – making the process easier for everyone.

    Streamlining the process will save businesses time and money, encourage foreign companies to use the UK’s world-class lawyers and courts to settle their disputes and grow the economy overall.

    Justice Minister, Lord Ponsonby, said:

    This Convention delivers real benefits for British businesses dealing with international disputes.

    As part of our Plan for Change we’re boosting UK firms’ confidence to trade by minimising legal costs and ensuring justice across borders, all while cementing Britain’s role as a global legal powerhouse committed to the rule of law.

    The Convention will enhance international legal collaboration. It will apply to judgments in civil and commercial matters, strengthening the UK’s position as a global hub for dispute resolution.

    The 2019 Hague Convention is already being applied by 29 parties, from Ukraine to EU countries, with Uruguay joining last year. This means UK civil and commercial judgments will be recognised and enforced in these nations and that the UK will recognise judgments made in their courts.

    With 91 members of the Hague Conference on Private International Law (HCCH), a major multilateral forum for private international law rules which has produced numerous conventions including the 2019 Hague Convention, Hague 2019 has a potentially global reach. 

    The Convention will apply to judgments given in proceedings that commence on or after 1 July 2025 across the entire United Kingdom or in other participating countries.

    Updates to this page

    Published 25 April 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI Europe: REPORT on a revamped long-term budget for the Union in a changing world – A10-0076/2025

    Source: European Parliament 2

    MOTION FOR A EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT RESOLUTION

    on a revamped long-term budget for the Union in a changing world

    (2024/2051(INI))

     

    The European Parliament,

     having regard to Articles 311, 312, 323 and 324 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU),

     having regard to Council Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2093 of 17 December 2020 laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027[1] and to the joint declarations agreed between Parliament, the Council and the Commission in this context and the related unilateral declarations,

     having regard to Council Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053 of 14 December 2020 on the system of own resources of the European Union and repealing Decision 2014/335/EU, Euratom[2],

     having regard to the amended Commission proposal of 23 June 2023 for a Council decision amending Decision (EU, Euratom) 2020/2053 on the system of own resources of the European Union (COM(2023)0331),

     having regard to the Interinstitutional Agreement of 16 December 2020 between the European Parliament, the Council of the European Union and the European Commission on budgetary discipline, on cooperation in budgetary matters and on sound financial management, as well as on new own resources, including a roadmap towards the introduction of new own resources[3] (the IIA),

     having regard to Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/2509 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 September 2024 on the financial rules applicable to the general budget of the Union (recast)[4] (the Financial Regulation),

     having regard to Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2092 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 December 2020 on a general regime of conditionality for the protection of the Union budget[5] (the Rule of Law Conditionality Regulation),

     having regard to its position of 27 February 2024 on the draft Council regulation amending Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2093 laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027[6],

     having regard to its resolution of 10 May 2023 on own resources: a new start for EU finances, a new start for Europe[7],

     having regard to its resolution of 15 December 2022 on upscaling the 2021-2027 multiannual financial framework: a resilient EU budget fit for new challenges[8],

     having regard to its position of 16 December 2020 on the draft Council regulation laying down the multiannual financial framework for the years 2021 to 2027[9],

     having regard to the Interinstitutional Proclamation on the European Pillar of Social Rights of 13 December 2017[10] and to the Commission Action Plan of 4 March 2021 on the implementation of the European Pillar of Social Rights (COM(2021)0102),

     having regard to the Agreement adopted at the 15th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP 15) in Montreal on 19 December 2022 (Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework),

     having regard to the Agreement adopted at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 21) in Paris on 12 December 2015 (the Paris Agreement),

     having regard to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals,

     having regard to the report of 30 October 2024 by Sauli Niinistö entitled ‘Safer together – strengthening Europe’s civilian and military preparedness and readiness’ (the Niinistö report),

     having regard to the report of 9 September 2024 by Mario Draghi entitled ‘The future of European competitiveness’ (the Draghi report),

     having regard to the report of 4 September 2024 of the Strategic Dialogue on the Future of EU Agriculture entitled ‘A shared prospect for farming and food in Europe’,

     having regard to the report of 17 April 2024 by Enrico Letta entitled ‘Much more than a market – speed, security, solidarity: empowering the Single Market to deliver a sustainable future and prosperity for all EU Citizens’ (the Letta report),

     having regard to the report of 20 February 2024 of the High-Level Group on the Future of Cohesion Policy entitled ‘Forging a sustainable future together – cohesion for a competitive and inclusive Europe’,

     having regard to the Budapest Declaration on the New European Competitiveness Deal,

     having regard to the joint communication of 26 March 2025 entitled ‘European Preparedness Union Strategy’ (JOIN(2025)0130),

     having regard to the joint white paper of 19 March 2025 entitled ‘European Defence Readiness 2030’ (JOIN(2025)0120),

     having regard to the Commission communication of 7 March 2025 entitled ‘A Roadmap for Women’s Rights’ (COM(2025)0097),

     having regard to the Commission communication of 26 February 2025 entitled ‘The Clean Industrial Deal: a joint roadmap for competitiveness and decarbonisation’ (COM(2025)0085),

     having regard to the Commission communication of 19 February 2025 entitled ‘A Vision for Agriculture and Food’ (COM(2025)0075),

     having regard to the Commission communication of 11 February 2025 entitled ‘The road to the next multiannual financial framework’ (COM(2025)0046),

     having regard to the Commission communication of 29 January 2025 entitled ‘A Competitiveness Compass for the EU’ (COM(2025)0030),

     having regard to the Commission communication of 9 December 2021 entitled ‘Building an economy that works for people: an action plan for the social economy’ (COM(2021)0778),

     having regard to the European Council conclusions of 20 March 2025, 6 March 2025 and 19 December 2024,

     having regard to the political guidelines of 18 July 2024 for the next European Commission 2024-2029,

     having regard to the opinion of the Committee of the Regions of 20 November 2024 entitled ‘EU budget and place-based policies: proposals for new design and delivery mechanisms in the MFF post-2027’[11],

     having regard to Rule 55 of its Rules of Procedure,

     having regard to the opinions of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, the Committee on Development, the Committee on Budgetary Control, the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, the Committee on Employment and Social Affairs, the Committee on the Environment, Climate and Food Safety, the Committee on Industry, Research and Energy, the Committee on Internal Market and Consumer Protection, the Committee on Transport and Tourism, the Committee on Regional Development, the Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development, the Committee on Culture and Education, the Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs, the Committee on Constitutional Affairs, and the Committee on Women’s Rights and Gender Equality,

     having regard to the report of the Committee on Budgets (A10-0076/2025),

    A. whereas, under Article 311 TFEU, the Union is required to provide itself with the means necessary to attain its objectives and carry through its policies;

    B. whereas the Union budget is primarily an investment tool that can achieve economies of scale unattainable at Member State level and support European public goods, in particular through cross-border projects; whereas all spending through the Union budget must provide European added value and deliver discernible net benefits compared to spending at national or sub-national level, leading to real and lasting results;

    C. whereas spending through the Union budget, if effectively targeted, aligned with the Union’s political priorities and better coordinated with spending at national level, helps to avoid fragmentation in the single market, promote upwards convergence, decrease inequalities and boost the overall impact of public investment; whereas public investment is essential as a catalyst for private investment in sectors where the market alone cannot drive the required investment;

    D. whereas the NextGenerationEU recovery instrument (NGEU) established in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic enabled significant additional investment capacity of EUR 750 billion in 2018 prices – beyond the Union budget, which amounts to 1.1 % of the EU-27’s gross national income (GNI) – prompting a swift recovery and return to growth and supporting the green and digital transitions; whereas NGEU will not be in place post-2027;

    E.  whereas in 2022 Member States spent an average of 1.4 % of gross domestic product (GDP) on State aid – significantly more than their contribution to the Union budget – with over half of the State aid unrelated to crises;

    F. whereas the Union budget, bolstered by NGEU and loans through the SURE scheme, has been instrumental in alleviating the economic and social impact of the COVID-19 crisis and in responding to the effects of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine; whereas the Union budget remains ill-equipped, in terms of size, structure and rules, to fully play its role in adjusting to evolving spending needs, addressing shocks and responding to crises and giving practical effect to the principle of solidarity, and to enable the Union to fulfil its objectives as established under the Treaties;

    G. whereas people rightly expect more from the Union and its budget, including the capacity to respond quickly and effectively to evolving needs and to provide them with the necessary support, especially in times of crisis;

    H. whereas, since the adoption of the current multiannual financial framework (MFF), the political, economic and social context has changed beyond recognition, compounding underlying structural challenges for the Union and leading to a substantial revision of the MFF in 2024;

    I. whereas the context in which the Commission will prepare its proposals for the post-2027 MFF is every bit as challenging, with the established global and geopolitical order changing quickly and radically, the return of large-scale warfare in the Union’s immediate neighbourhood, a highly challenging economic and social backdrop and the worsening climate and biodiversity crisis; whereas, as the Commission has made clear, the status quo is not an option and the Union budget will need to change accordingly;

    J. whereas the US administration has decided to retreat from the country’s post-war global role in guaranteeing peace and security, in leading on global governance in the rules-based, multilateral international order and in providing essential development and humanitarian aid to those most in need around the world; whereas the Union will therefore have to step up to fill part of the void the US appears set to leave, placing additional demands on the budget;

    K. whereas the Union has committed to take all the steps needed to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest and to protect nature and reverse biodiversity loss; whereas delivering on the policy framework put in place to achieve this objective will require substantial investment; whereas the Union budget will have to play a key role in providing and incentivising that investment;

    L. whereas, in order to compensate for the budget’s shortcomings, there have been numerous workaround solutions that make the budget more opaque, leaving the public in the dark about the real volume of Union spending, undermining the longer-term predictability of investment the budget is designed to provide and undercutting not only the principle of budget unity, but also Parliament’s role as a legislator and budgetary and discharge authority and in holding the executive to account;

    M. whereas the Union is founded on the values of respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities; whereas breaches of those values undermine the cohesion of the Union, erode the rights of Union citizens and weaken mutual trust among Member States;

    1. Insists that, in a fast changing world where people rightly expect more from the Union and its budget and where the Union is confronted with a growing number of crises, the next MFF must be endowed with increased resources compared to the 2021-2027 period, moving away from the historically restrictive, self-imposed level of 1 % of GNI;

    2. Underscores that the next MFF must focus on financing European public goods with discernible added value compared to national spending; highlights the need for enhanced synergies and better coordination between Union and national spending; emphasises that spending will have to address major challenges, such as the return of large-scale warfare in the Union’s immediate neighbourhood, a highly challenging economic and social backdrop, a competitiveness gap and the worsening climate and biodiversity crisis;

    3. Considers that the ‘one national plan per Member State’ approach as envisaged by the Commission, with the Recovery and Resilience Facility model as a blueprint, cannot be the basis for shared management spending post-2027; underlines that the design of shared management spending under the next MFF must fully safeguard Parliament’s roles as legislator and budgetary and discharge authority and be designed and implemented through close collaboration with regional and local authorities and all relevant stakeholders;

    4. Calls for the next MFF to continue support for economic, social and territorial cohesion in order to help bind the Union together, deepen the single market, promote convergence and reduce inequality, poverty and social exclusion;

    5. Considers that the idea of an umbrella Competitiveness Fund merging existing programmes as envisaged by the Commission is not fit for purpose; stresses that the fund should instead be a new instrument taking advantage of a toolbox of funding based on lessons learned from InvestEU and the Innovation Fund and complementing existing, highly successful programmes;

    6. Stresses that, in particular in the light of the US’s retreat from its role as a global guarantor of peace and security, there is a clear need to progress towards a genuine Defence Union, with the next MFF supporting a comprehensive security approach through an increase in investment; stresses that defence spending cannot come at the expense of nor lead to a reduction in long-term investment in the economic, social and territorial cohesion of the Union;

    7. Calls for genuine simplification for final beneficiaries by avoiding programmes with overlapping objectives, diverging eligibility criteria and different rules governing horizontal provisions; underlines that simplification cannot mean more leeway for the Commission without the necessary checks and balances and must therefore be achieved with full respect for the institutional balance provided for in the Treaties;

    8. Insists on enhanced in-built crisis response capacity in the next MFF and sufficient margins under each heading; stresses that, alongside predictability for investment, spending programmes should retain a substantial in-built flexibility reserve, with allocation to specific policy objectives to be decided by the budgetary authority; underlines that flexibility for humanitarian aid should be ring-fenced; considers that the post-2027 MFF should include two special instruments – one dedicated to ensuring solidarity in the event of natural disasters and one for general-purpose crisis response;

    9. Underlines that compliance with Union values and fundamental rights is an essential pre-requisite to access EU funds; insists that the Union budget be protected against misuse, fraud and breaches of the principle of the rule of law and calls for a stronger link between the rule of law and the Union budget post-2027;

    10. Underlines that the repayment of NGEU borrowing must not endanger the financing of EU policies and priorities; stresses, therefore, that all costs related to borrowing backed by the Union budget or the budgetary headroom be treated distinctly from appropriations for EU programmes within the future MFF architecture;

    11. Calls on the Council to adopt new own resources as a matter of urgency in order to enable sustainable repayment of NGEU borrowing; stresses that new genuine own resources, beyond the IIA, are essential for the Union’s higher spending needs; considers that all instruments and tools should be explored in order to provide the Union with the necessary resources, and considers, in this respect, that joint borrowing presents a viable option to ensure that the Union has sufficient resources to respond to acute Union-wide crises, such as the ongoing crisis in the area of security and defence;

    12. Stands ready to work constructively with the Council and Commission to deliver a long-term budget that addresses the Union’s needs; highlights that the post-2027 MFF is being constructed in a far from ‘business as usual’ context and takes seriously its institutional role as enshrined in the Treaties; insists that it will only approve a long-term budget that is fit for purpose for the Union in a changing world and calls for swift adoption of the MFF to enable timely implementation of spending programmes from 1 January 2028;

    A long-term budget with a renewed spending focus

    13. Considers that, in view of the structural challenges facing the Union, the post-2027 MFF should adjust its spending focus to ensure that the Union can meet its strategic policy aims as detailed below;

     

    Competitiveness, strategic autonomy, social, economic and territorial cohesion and resilience

    14. Is convinced that boosting competitiveness, decarbonising the economy and enhancing the Union’s innovation capacity are central priorities for the post-2027 MFF and are vital to ensure long-term, sustainable and inclusive growth and a thriving, more resilient economy and society;

    15. Considers that the Union must develop a competitiveness framework in line with its own values and political aims and that competitiveness must foster not only economic growth, but also social, economic and territorial cohesion and environmental sustainability as underlined in both the Draghi and Letta reports;

    16. Underlines that, as spelt out in the Letta and Draghi reports, the European economy and social model are under intense strain, with the productivity, competitiveness and skills gap having knock-on effects on the quality of jobs and on living standards for Europeans already grappling with high housing, energy and food prices; is concerned that a lack of job opportunities and high costs of living increase the risk of a brain drain away from Europe;

    17. Points out that Draghi puts the annual investment gap with respect to innovation and infrastructure at EUR 750-800 billion per year between 2025 and 2030; underlines that the Union budget must play a vital role but it cannot cover that shortfall alone, and that the bulk of the effort will have to come from the private sector – points to the need to exploit synergies between public and private investment, in particular by simplifying and harmonising the EU investment architecture;

    18. Stresses that the Union budget must be carefully coordinated with national spending, so as to ensure complementarity, and must be designed such that it can de-risk, mobilise and leverage private investment effectively, enabling start-ups and SMEs to access funds more readily; calls, therefore, for programmes such as InvestEU, which ensures additionality and follows a market-based, demand-driven approach, to be significantly reinforced in the next MFF; considers that financial instruments and budgetary guarantees are an effective use of resources to achieve critical Union policy goals and calls for them to be further simplified;

    19. Insists that more must be done to maximise the potential of the role of the European Investment Bank (EIB) Group – together with other international and national financial institutions – in lending and de-risking in strategic policy areas, such as climate and, latterly, security and defence projects; calls for an increased risk appetite and ambition from the EIB Group to crowd in investment, based on a strong capital position, and for a reinforced investment partnership to ensure that every euro spent at Union level is used in the most effective manner;

    20. Emphasises that funding for research and innovation, including support for basic research, should be significantly increased, should be focused on the Union’s strategic priorities, should continue to be determined by the principle of excellence and should remain merit-based; considers that there should be sufficient resources across the MFF and at national level to fund all high-quality projects throughout the innovation cycle and to achieve the 3 % GDP target for research and development spending by 2030;

    21. Stresses that the next MFF, building on the current Connecting Europe Facility, should include much greater, directly managed funding for energy, transport and digital infrastructure, with priority given to cross-border connections and national links with European added value; considers that such infrastructure is an absolute precondition for a successful deepening of the single market and for increasing the Union’s resilience in a changing geopolitical order;

    22. Points out that a secure and robust space sector is critical for the Union’s autonomy and sovereignty and therefore needs sustained investment;

    23. Underlines that a more competitive, productive and socially inclusive economy helps to generate high-quality, well-paid jobs, thus enhancing people’s standard of living; emphasises that, through programmes such as the European Social Fund+ and Erasmus+, the Union budget can play an important role in supporting education and training systems, enhancing social inclusion, boosting workforce adaptability through reskilling and upskilling, and thus preparing people for employment in a modern economy;

    24. Insists that the Union budget should continue to support important economic and job-creating sectors where the Union is already a world leader, such as tourism and the cultural and creative sectors; underscores the need for dedicated funding for tourism, including to implement the EU Strategy for Sustainable Tourism, in the Union budget post-2027; points to the importance of Creative Europe in contributing to Europe’s diversity and competitiveness and in supporting vibrant societies;

    25. Stresses that, in order to compete with other major global players, the European economy must also become more competitive and resilient on the supply side by investing more in the Union’s open strategic autonomy through enhanced industrial policy and a focus on strategic sectors, resource-efficiency and critical technologies to reduce dependence on third countries;

    26. Considers that, in light of the above, the idea of an umbrella Competitiveness Fund merging existing programmes as envisaged by the Commission is not fit for purpose; stresses that the fund should instead be a new instrument taking advantage of a toolbox of funding based on lessons learned from InvestEU and the Innovation Fund; recalls that, under Article 182 TFEU, the Union is required to adopt a framework programme for research;

    27. Notes that, in the Commission communication on the competitiveness compass, the Commission argues that a new competitiveness coordination tool should be established in order to better align industrial and research policies and investment between EU and national level; notes that the proposed new tool is envisaged as part of a ‘new, lean steering mechanism’ designed ‘to reinforce the link between overall policy coordination and the EU budget’; insists that Parliament must play a full decision-making role in both mechanisms;

    28. Emphasises that food security is a vital component of strategic autonomy and that the next MFF must continue to support the competitiveness and resilience of the Union’s farming and fisheries sectors, including small-scale and young farmers and fishers, and help the sectors to better protect the climate and biodiversity, as well as the seas and oceans; highlights that a modern and simplified common agricultural policy is crucial for increasing productivity through technical progress, ensuring a fair standard of living for farmers, guaranteeing food security and the production of safe, high-quality and affordable food for Europeans, fostering generational renewal and ensuring the viability of rural areas;

    29. Points out that the farming sector is particularly vulnerable to inflationary shocks which affect farmers’ purchasing power; calls for adequate and predictable funding for the common agricultural policy in the next MFF;

    30. Recalls that social, economic and territorial cohesion is a cornerstone of European integration and is vital in binding the Union together and deepening the single market; reaffirms, in that respect, the importance of the convergence process; underlines that a modernised cohesion policy must follow a decentralised, place-based, multilevel governance approach and be built around the shared management and partnership principle, fully involving local and regional authorities and relevant stakeholders, ensuring that resources are directed where they are most needed to reduce regional disparities;

    31. Stresses that cohesion policy funding must tackle the key challenges the Union faces, such as demographic change and depopulation, and target the regions and people most in need; calls, furthermore, for enhanced access to EU funding for cities, regions and urban authorities;

    32. Recalls the importance of the social dimension of the European Union and of promoting the implementation of the European Pillar of Social Rights, its Action Plan and headline targets; emphasises that the Union budget should, therefore, play a pivotal role in reducing inequality, poverty and social exclusion, including by supporting children, families and vulnerable groups; recalls that around 20 million children in the Union are at risk of poverty and social exclusion; stresses that addressing child poverty across the Union requires appropriately funded, comprehensive and integrated measures, together with the efficient implementation of the European Child Guarantee at national level; emphasises that Parliament has consistently requested a dedicated budget within the ESF+ to support the Child Guarantee as a central pillar of the EU anti-poverty strategy;

    33. Highlights, in this regard, the EU-wide housing crisis affecting millions of families and young people; stresses the need for enhanced support for housing through the Union budget, in particular via cohesion policy, and through other funding sources, such as the EIB Group and national promotional banks; acknowledges that, while Union financing cannot solve the housing crisis alone, it can play a crucial role in financing urgent measures and complementing broader Union and national efforts to improve housing affordability and enhance energy efficiency of the housing stock;

    34. Points out that Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has had substantial economic and social consequences, in particular in Member States bordering Russia and Belarus; insists that the next MFF provide support to these regions;

    The green and digital transitions

    35. Highlights that the green and digital transitions are inextricably linked to competitiveness, the modernisation of the economy and the resilience of society and act as catalysts for a future-oriented and resource-efficient economy; insists therefore, that the post-2027 MFF must continue to support and to further accelerate the twin transitions;

    36. Recalls that the Union budget is an essential contributor to achieving climate neutrality by 2050, including through support for the 2030 and 2040 targets; underlines that the transition will require a decarbonisation of the economy, in particular through the deployment of clean technologies, improved energy and transport infrastructure and more energy-efficient housing; notes that the Commission estimates additional investment needs to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 at 1.5 % of GDP per year compared to the decade 2011-2020 and that, while the Union budget alone cannot cover the gap, it must remain a vital contributor; calls, therefore, for increased directly managed support for environment and biodiversity protection and climate action building on the current LIFE programme;

    37. Underlines that industry will be central in the transition to net zero and the establishment of the Energy Union, and that support will be needed in helping some industrial sectors and their workers to adapt; stresses the importance of a just transition that must leave no one behind, requiring, inter alia, investment in regions that are heavily fossil-fuel dependent and increased support for vulnerable households, in particular through the Just Transition Mechanism and the Social Climate Fund;

    38. Points to the profound technological shift under way, with technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum both creating opportunities, in terms of the Union’s economic potential and global leadership and improvements to citizens’ lives, and posing reliability, ethical and sovereignty challenges; stresses that the next MFF must support research into, and the development and safe application of digital technologies and help people to hone the knowledge and skills they need to work with and use them;

    Security, defence and preparedness

    39. Recalls that peace and security are the foundation for the Union’s prosperity, social model and competitiveness, and a vital pillar of the Union’s geopolitical standing; stresses that the next MFF must support a comprehensive security approach by investing significantly more in safeguarding the Union against the myriad threats it faces;

    40. Underlines that, as the Niinistö report makes clear, multiple threats are combining to heighten instability and increase the Union’s vulnerability, chief among them the fragmenting global order, the security threat posed by Russia and Belarus, growing tensions globally, hostile international actors, the globalisation of criminal networks, hybrid campaigns – which include cyberattacks, foreign information manipulation, disinformation and interference and the instrumentalisation of migration – increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events as a result of climate change, and health threats;

    41. Points out that the Union has played a vital role in achieving lasting peace on its territory and must continue to do so by adjusting to the reality of war on its doorstep and the need to vastly boost defence infrastructure, capabilities and readiness, including through the Union budget, going far beyond the current allocation of less than 2 % of the MFF;

    42. Notes that European defence capabilities suffer from decades of under-investment and that, according to the Commission, the defence spending gap currently stands at EUR 500 billion for the next decade; underlines that the Union budget alone cannot fill the gap, but has an important role to play, in conjunction with national budgets and with a focus on clear EU added value; considers that the Union budget and lending through the EIB Group can help incentivise investment in defence; stresses that defence spending must not come at the expense of social and environmental spending, nor must it lead to a reduction in funding for long-standing Union policies that have proved their worth over time;

    43. Underlines the merits of the defence programmes and instruments put in place during the current MFF, which have enhanced joint research, production and procurement in the field of defence, providing a valuable foundation on which to build further Union policy and investment;

    44. Emphasises that, given the geopolitical situation, there is a clear need to act and to progress towards a genuine Defence Union, in coordination with NATO and in full alignment with the neutrality commitments of individual Member States; concurs, in that regard, with the Commission’s analysis that the next MFF must provide a comprehensive and robust framework in support of EU defence;

    45. Underscores the importance of a competitive and resilient European defence technological and industrial base; considers that enhanced joint EU-level investment in defence in the next MFF backed up by a clear and transparent governance structure can help to avoid duplication, generate economies of scale, and thus significant savings for Member States, reduce fragmentation and ensure the interoperability of equipment and systems; underscores the importance of technology in modern defence systems and therefore of investing in research, cyber-defence and cybersecurity and in dual-use products; points to the need to direct support towards the defence industry within the Union, thus strengthening strategic autonomy, creating quality high-skilled jobs, driving innovation and creating cross-border opportunities for EU businesses, including SMEs;

    46. Points to the importance of increasing support in the budget for military mobility, which upgrades infrastructure for dual-use military and civilian purposes, enabling the large-scale movement of military equipment and personnel at short notice and thus contributing to the Union’s defence capabilities and collective security; highlights, in that regard, the importance of financing for the trans-European transport networks to enable their adaptation for dual-use purposes;

    47. Emphasises that the Union needs to ramp up funding for preparedness across the board; is alarmed by the growing impact of natural disasters, which are often the result of climate change and are therefore likely to occur with greater frequency and intensity in the future; points out that, according to the 2024 European Climate Risk Assessment Report, cumulated economic losses from natural disasters could reach about 1.4 % of Union GDP;

    48. Underlines, therefore, that, in addition to efforts to mitigate climate change through the green transition, significant investment is required to adapt to climate change, in particular to prevent and reduce the impact of natural disasters and severe weather events; considers that support for this purpose, such as through the current Union Civil Protection Mechanism, must be significantly increased in the next MFF and made available quickly to local and regional authorities, which are often on the frontline;

    49. Emphasises that reconstruction and recovery measures after natural disasters must be based on the ‘build back better’ approach and prioritise nature-based solutions; stresses the importance of sustainable water management and security and hydric resilience as part of the Union’s overall preparedness strategy;

    50. Recalls that the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked economic and social havoc globally and that a key lesson from the experience is that there is a need to prioritise investment in prevention of, preparedness for and response to health threats, in medical research and disease prevention, in access to critical medicines, in healthcare infrastructure, in physical and mental health and in the resilience and accessibility of public health systems in the Union; recalls that strategic autonomy in health is key to ensuring the Union’s preparedness in this area;

    51. Considers that the next MFF must build on the work done in the current programming period by ensuring that the necessary investment is in place to build a genuine European Health Union that delivers for all citizens;

    52. Underlines that, with technological developments, it has become easier for malicious and opportunistic foreign actors to spread disinformation, encourage online hate speech, interfere in elections and mount cyberattacks against the Union’s interests; insists that the next MFF must invest in enhanced cybersecurity capabilities and equip the Union to counter hybrid warfare in its various guises;

    53. Stresses that a free, independent and pluralistic media is a fundamental component of Europe’s resilience, safeguarding not only the free flow of information but also a democratic mindset, critical thinking and informed decision-making; points to the importance of investment in independent and investigative journalism, fact-checking initiatives, digital and media literacy and critical thinking to safeguard against disinformation, foreign information manipulation and electoral interference as part of the European Democracy Shield initiative and therefore to guarantee democratic resilience; underscores the need for continued Union budget support for initiatives in these areas;

    54. Underscores the importance of continued funding, in the next MFF, for effective protection of the EU’s external borders; underlines the need to counter transnational criminal networks and better protect victims of trafficking networks, and to strengthen resilience and response capabilities to address hybrid attacks and the instrumentalisation of migration, by third countries or hostile non-state actors; highlights, in particular, the need for support to frontline Member States for the purposes of securing the external borders of the EU;

    55. Underlines that the EU’s resilience and preparedness are inextricably linked to those of its regional and global partners; emphasises that strengthening partners’ capacity to prevent, withstand and effectively respond to extreme weather events, health crises, hybrid campaigns, cyberattacks or armed conflict also lowers the risk of spill-over effects for Europe;

    External action and enlargement

    56. Insists that, in a context of heightened global instability, the Union must continue to engage constructively with third countries and support peace, and conflict prevention, stability, prosperity, security, human rights, the rule of law, equality, democracy and sustainable development globally, in line with its global responsibility values and international commitments;

    57. Regrets the fact that external action in the current MFF has been underfunded, leading to significant recourse to special instruments and substantial reinforcements in the mid-term revision; notes, in particular, that humanitarian aid funding has been woefully inadequate, prompting routine use of the Emergency Aid Reserve;

    58. Underlines that the US’s retreat from its post-war global role in guaranteeing peace, security and democracy, in leading on global governance in the rules-based, multilateral international order and in providing essential development and humanitarian aid to those most in need around the world will leave an enormous gap and that the Union has a responsibility and overwhelming strategic interest in helping to fill that gap; calls on the Commission to address the consequences of the US’s retreat at the latest in its proposal for the post-2027 MFF;

    59. Stresses that the next MFF must continue to tackle the most pressing global challenges, from fighting climate change, to providing relief in the event of natural disasters, preventing and addressing violent conflict and guaranteeing global security, ensuring global food security, improving healthcare and education systems, reducing poverty and inequality, promoting democracy, human rights, the rule of law and social justice and boosting competitiveness and the security of global supply chains, in full compliance with the principle of policy coherence for development; emphasises, in particular, the need for support for the Union’s Southern and Eastern Neighbourhoods;

    60. Underlines that, in particular in light of the drastic cuts to the USAID budget, the budget must uphold the Union’s role as the world’s leading provider of development aid and climate finance in line with the Union’s global obligations and commitments; recalls, in that regard, that the Union and its Member States have collectively committed to allocating 0.7 % of their GNI to official development assistance and that poverty alleviation must remain its primary objective; insists that the budget must continue to support the Union in its efforts to defend the rules-based international order, democracy, multilateralism, human rights and fundamental values;

    61. Insists that, given the unprecedented scale of humanitarian crises, mounting global challenges and uncertainty of US assistance under the current administration, humanitarian aid funding must be significantly enhanced and that its use must remain solely needs-based and respect the principles of neutrality, independence and impartiality; emphasises that the needs-based nature of humanitarian aid requires ring-fenced funding delivered through a stand-alone spending programme, distinct from other external action financing; underscores, furthermore, that effective humanitarian aid provision is contingent on predictability through a sufficient annual baseline allocation;

    62. Emphasises that humanitarian aid, by its very nature, requires substantial flexibility and response capacity; considers, therefore, that, in addition to an adequate baseline figure, humanitarian aid will require significant ring-fenced flexibility in its design to enable an effective response to the growing crises;

    63. Emphasises that, in a context in which global actors are increasingly using trade interdependence as a means of economic coercion, the Union must bolster its capacity to protect and advance its own strategic interests, develop more robust tools to counter coercion and ensure genuine reciprocity in its partnerships; stresses that such an approach requires the strategic allocation of external financing so as to support, for example, economic, security and energy partnerships that align with the Union’s values and strategic interests;

    64. Considers that enlargement represents an opportunity to strengthen the Union as a geopolitical power and that the next MFF is pivotal for preparing the Union for enlargement and the candidate countries for accession; recalls that the stability, security and democratic resilience of the candidate countries are inextricably connected to those of the EU and require sustained strategic investment, linked to reforms, to support their convergence with Union standards; underlines the important role that citizens and civil society organisations play in the process of enlargement;

    65. Points to the need for strategically targeted support for pre-accession and for growth and investment; is of the view that post-2027 pre-accession assistance should be provided in the form of both grants and loans; believes, in that context, that the future framework should allow for innovative financing mechanisms, as well as lending to candidate countries backed by the budgetary headroom (the difference between the own resources and the MFF ceilings);

    66. Stresses that financial support must be conditional on the implementation of reforms aligned with the Union acquis and policies and adherence to Union values; emphasises, in this regard, the need for a strong governance model that ensures parliamentary accountability, oversight and control and a strong, effective anti-fraud architecture;

    67. Reiterates its full support for Ukrainians in their fight for freedom and democracy and deplores the terrible suffering and impact resulting from Russia’s unprovoked and unjustifiable war of aggression; welcomes the decision to grant Ukraine and the neighbouring Republic of Moldova candidate country status and insists on the need to deploy the necessary funds to support their accession processes;

    68. Underlines that pre-accession support to Ukraine has to be distinct from and additional to financial assistance for macroeconomic stability, reconstruction and post-war recovery, where needs are far more substantial and require a concerted international effort, of which support through the Union budget should be an important part;

    69. Is convinced that the existing mandatory revision clause in the event of enlargement should be maintained in the next framework and that national envelopes should not be affected; underlines that the next MFF will also have to put in place appropriate transitional and phasing-in measures for key spending areas, such as cohesion and agriculture, based on a careful assessment of the impacts on different sectors;

    Fundamental rights, Union values and the rule of law

    70. Emphasises the importance of the Union budget and programmes like Erasmus+ and Citizens, Equality, Rights and Values in promoting and protecting democracy and the Union’s values, fostering the Union’s common cultural heritage and European integration, enhancing citizen engagement, civic education and youth participation, safeguarding and promoting fundamental rights enshrined in the Charter of Fundamental Rights and the rule of law; calls, in this regard, for increased funding for Erasmus+ in the next MFF; points to the importance of the independence of the justice system, the sound functioning of national institutions, de-oligarchisation, robust support for and, in line with article 11(2) TEU, an active dialogue with civil society, which is vital for fostering an active civic space, ensuring accountability and transparency and informing policymakers about best practices from the ground;

    71. Highlights, in that connection, that the recast of the Financial Regulation requires the Commission and the Member States, in the implementation of the budget, to ensure compliance with the Charter of Fundamental Rights and to respect the values on which the Union is founded, which are enshrined in Article 2 TEU; expects the Commission to ensure that the proposals for the next MFF, including for the spending programmes, are aligned with the Financial Regulation recast;

    72. Stresses that instability in neighbouring regions and beyond, poverty, underlying trends in economic development, demographic changes and climate change, continue to generate migration flows towards the Union, placing significant pressure on asylum and migration systems; underlines that the post-2027 MFF must support the full and swift implementation of the Union’s Asylum and Migration Pact and effective return and readmission policies, in line with fundamental rights and EU values, including the principle of solidarity and fair sharing of responsibility; underlines, moreover, that, in line with the Pact, the EU must pursue enhanced cooperation and mutually beneficial partnerships with third countries on migration, with adequate parliamentary scrutiny, and that such cooperation must abide by EU and international law;

    73. Underlines that compliance with Union values and fundamental rights is an essential pre-requisite to access EU funds; highlights the importance of strong links between respect for the rule of law and access to EU funds under the current MFF; believes that the protection of the Union’s financial interests depends on respect for the rule of law at national level; welcomes, in particular, the positive impact of the Rule of Law Conditionality Regulation in protecting the Union’s financial interests in cases of systemic and persistent breaches of the rule of law; calls on the Commission and the Council to apply the regulation strictly, consistently and without undue delay wherever necessary; emphasises that decisions to suspend or reduce Union funding over breaches of the rule of law must be based on objective criteria and not be guided by other considerations, nor be the outcome of negotiations;

    74. Points to the need for a stronger link between the rule of law and the Union budget post-2027 and welcomes the Commission’s commitment to bolster links between the recommendations in the annual rule of law report and access to funds through the budget; calls on the Commission to outline, in the annual rule of law report from 2025 onwards, the extent to which identified weaknesses in rule of law regimes potentially pose a risk to the Union budget; welcomes, furthermore, the link between respect for Union values and the implementation of the budget and calls on the Commission to actively monitor Member States’ compliance with this principle in a unified manner and to take swift action in the event of non-compliance;

    75. Calls for the consolidation of a robust rule of law toolbox, building on the current conditionality provisions under the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), the horizontal enabling conditions in the Common Provisions Regulation and the relevant provisions of the Financial Regulation and insists that the toolbox should cover the entire Union budget; underlines the need for far greater transparency and consistency with regard to the application of tools to protect the rule of law and for Parliament’s role to be strengthened in the application and scrutiny of such measures; insists, furthermore, on the need for consistency across instruments when assessing breaches of the rule of law in Member States;

    76. Recalls that the Rule of Law Conditionality Regulation provides that final recipients should not be deprived of the benefits of EU funds in the event of sanctions being applied to their government; believes that, to date, this provision has not been effective and stresses the importance of applying a smart conditionality approach so that beneficiaries are not penalised because of their government’s actions; calls on the Commission, in line with its stated intention in the political guidelines, to propose specific measures to ensure that local and regional authorities, civil society and other beneficiaries can continue to benefit from Union funding in cases of breaches of the rule of law by national governments without weakening the application of the regulation and maintaining the Member State’s obligation to pay under Union law;

     A long-term budget that mainstreams the Union’s policy objectives

    77. Stresses that a long-term budget that is fully aligned with the Union’s strategic aims requires that key objectives be mainstreamed across the budget through a set of horizontal principles, building on the lessons from the current MFF and RRF;

    78. Recalls that the implementation of horizontal principles should not lead to an excessive administrative burden on beneficiaries and be in line with the principle of proportionality; calls for innovative solutions and the use of automated reporting tools, including artificial intelligence, to achieve more efficient data collection;

    79. Underlines, therefore, that the next MFF must ensure that, across the board, spending programmes pursue climate and biodiversity objectives, promote and protect rights and equal opportunities for all, including gender equality, support competitiveness and bolster the Union’s preparedness against threats;

    80. Points out that effective mainstreaming is best achieved through a toolbox of measures, primarily through policy, project and regulatory design, thorough impact assessments and solid tracking of spending and, in specific cases, spending targets based on relevant and available data; welcomes the significant improvements in performance reporting in the current MFF, which allow for much better scrutiny of the impact of EU spending and calls for this to be further developed in the next programing period;

    81. Welcomes the development of a methodology to track gender-based spending and considers that the lessons learnt, in particular as regards the collection of gender-disaggregated data, the monitoring of implementation and impact and administrative burden, should be applied in the next MFF in order to improve the methodology; calls on the Commission to explore the feasibility of gender budgeting in the next MFF; stresses, in the same vein, the need for a significant improvement in climate and biodiversity mainstreaming methodologies to move towards the measurement of impact;

    82. Regrets that the Commission has not systematically conducted thorough impact assessments, including gender impact assessments, for all legislation involving spending through the budget and insists that this change;

    83. Is pleased that the climate mainstreaming target of 30 % is projected to be exceeded in the current MFF; regrets, however, that the Union is not on track to meet the 10 % target for 2026 for biodiversity-related expenditure; insists that the targets in the IIA have nevertheless been a major factor in driving climate and biodiversity spending; calls on the Commission to adapt the spending targets contributing positively to climate and biodiversity in line with the Union policy ambitions in this regard, taking into account the investment needs for these policy ambitions;

    84. Stresses, furthermore, that the Union budget should be implemented in line with Article 33(2) of the Financial Regulation, therefore without doing significant harm[12] to the specified objectives, respecting applicable working and employment conditions and taking into account the principle of gender equality;

    85. Welcomes the Commission’s commitment to phase out all fossil fuel subsidies and environmentally harmful subsidies in the next MFF; expects the Commission to come forward with its planned roadmap in this regard as part of its proposal for the next MFF;

    A long-term budget with an effective administration at the service of Europeans

    86. Underlines the need for Union policies to be underpinned by a well-functioning administration; insists that, post-2027, sufficient financial and staff resources be allocated from the outset so that Union institutions, bodies, decentralised agencies and the European Public Prosecutor’s Office can ensure effective and efficient policy design, high-quality delivery and enforcement, provide technical assistance, continue to attract the best people from all Member States, thus ensuring geographical balance, and have leeway to adjust to changing circumstances;

    87. Regrets that the Union’s ability to implement policy effectively and protect its financial interests within the current MFF has been undermined by stretched administrative resources and a dogmatic application of a policy of stable staffing, despite increasing demands and responsibilities; points, for example, to the failure to provide sufficient staff to properly implement and enforce the Digital Services[13] and Digital Markets Acts[14], thus undercutting the legislation’s effectiveness and to the repeated redeployments from programmes to decentralised agencies to cover staffing needs; insists that staffing levels be determined by an objective needs assessment when legislation is proposed and definitively adopted, and factored into planning for administrative expenditure from the outset;

    88. Emphasises that the Commission has sought, to some degree, to circumvent its own stable staffing policy by increasing staff attached to programmes and facilities and thus not covered by the administrative spending ceiling; underscores, however, that such an approach merely masks the problem and may ultimately undermine the operational capacity of programmes; insists, therefore, that additional responsibilities require administrative expenditure and must not erode programme envelopes;

    89. Stresses that up-front investment in secure and interoperable IT infrastructure and data mining capabilities can also generate longer-term cost savings and hugely enhance policy delivery and tracking of spending;

    90. Acknowledges that, in the absence of any correction mechanism in the current MFF, high inflation has significantly driven up statutory costs, requiring extensive use of special instruments to cover the shortfall; regrets that the Council elected not to take up the Commission’s proposal to raise the ceiling for administrative expenditure in the MFF revision, thus further eroding special instruments;

    A long-term budget that is simpler and more transparent

    91. Stresses that the next MFF must be designed so as to simplify the lives of all beneficiaries by cutting unnecessary red tape; underlines that simplification will require harmonising rules and reporting requirements wherever possible, including, as relevant, ensuring consistency between the applicable rules at European, national and regional levels; underlines, in that respect, the need for a genuine, user-friendly single entry point for EU funding and a simplified application procedure designed in consultation with relevant stakeholders; points out, furthermore, that the next MFF must be implemented as close to people as possible;

    92. Calls for genuine simplification where there are overlapping objectives, diverging eligibility criteria and different rules governing horizontal provisions that should be uniform across programmes; considers that an assessment of which spending programmes should be included in the next MFF must be based on the above aspects, on the need to focus spending on clearly identified policy objectives with clear European added value and on the policy intervention logic of each programme; stresses that reducing the number of programmes is not an end in itself;

    93. Underlines that simplification cannot mean more leeway for the Commission without the necessary checks and balances and must therefore be achieved with full respect for the institutional balance provided for in the Treaties;

    94. Insists that simplification cannot come at the expense of the quality of programme design and implementation and that, therefore, a simpler budget must also be a more transparent budget, enabling better accountability, scrutiny, control of spending and reducing the risks of double funding, misuse and fraud; underlines that any reduction in programmes must be offset by a far more detailed breakdown of the budget by budget line, in contrast to some programme mergers in the current MFF, such as the Neighbourhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument – Global Europe (NDICI – Global Europe), which is an example not to follow; calls, therefore, for a sufficiently detailed breakdown by budget line to enable the budgetary authority to exercise proper accountability and ensure that decision-making in the annual budgetary procedure and in the course of budget implementation is meaningful;

    95. Recalls that transparency is essential to retain citizens’ trust, and that fraud and misuse of funds are extremely detrimental to that trust; underlines, therefore, the need for Parliament to be able to control spending and assess whether discharge can be granted; insists that proper accountability requires robust auditing for all budgetary expenditure based on the application of a single audit trail; calls on the Commission to put in place harmonised and effective anti-fraud mechanisms across funding instruments for the post-2027 MFF that ensure the protection of the Union’s budget;

    96. Reiterates its long-standing position that all EU-level spending should be brought within the purview of the budgetary authority, thereby ensuring transparency, democratic control and protection of the Union’s financial interests; calls, therefore, for the full budgetisation of (partially) off-budget instruments such as the Social Climate Fund, the Innovation Fund and the Modernisation Fund, or their successors;

    A long-term budget that is more flexible and more responsive to crises and shocks

    97. Points out that, traditionally, the MFF has not been conceived with a crisis response or flexibility logic, but rather has been designed primarily to ensure medium-term investment predictability; underlines that, in a rapidly changing political, security, economic and social context, such an approach is no longer tenable; insists on sufficient in-built crisis response capacity in the next MFF;

    98. Underscores that the current MFF has been beset by a lack of flexibility and an inability to adjust to evolving spending priorities; considers that the next MFF needs to strike a better balance between investment predictability and flexibility to adjust spending focus; highlights that spending in certain areas requires greater stability than in others where flexibility is more valuable; stresses that recurrent redeployments are not a viable way to finance the Union’s priorities as they damage investments and jeopardise the delivery of agreed policy objectives;

    99. Believes that, while allocating a significant portion of funding to objectives up-front, spending programmes should retain a substantial in-built flexibility reserve, with allocation to specific policy objectives to be decided by the budgetary authority; notes that the NDICI – Global Europe’s emerging challenges and priorities cushion provides a model for such a flexibility reserve, but that the decision-making process for its mobilisation must not be replicated in the future MFF; points to the need for stronger, more effective scrutiny powers of the co-legislators over the setting of policy priorities and objectives and a detailed budgetary breakdown to ensure that the budgetary authority is equipped to make meaningful and informed decisions;

    100. Underlines that the MFF must have sufficient margins under each heading to ensure that new instruments or spending objectives agreed over the programming period can be accommodated without eroding funding for other policy and long-term strategic objectives or eating into crisis response capacity;

    101. Underlines that the possibility for budgetary transfers under the Financial Regulation already provides for flexibility to adjust to evolving spending needs in the course of budget implementation; stresses that, under the current rules, the Commission has significant freedom to transfer considerable amounts between policy areas without budgetary authority approval, which limits scrutiny and control; calls, therefore, for the rules to be changed so as to introduce a maximum amount, in addition to a maximum percentage per budget line, for transfers without approval; considers that for transfers from Union institutions other than the Commission that are subject to a possible duly justified objection by Parliament or the Council, a threshold below which they would be exempt from that procedure could be a useful measure of simplification;

    102. Recalls that the current MFF has been placed under further strain due to high levels of inflation in a context where an annual 2 % deflator is applied to 2018 prices, reducing the budget’s real-terms value and squeezing its operational and administrative capacity; considers, therefore, that the future budget should be endowed with sufficient response capacity to enable the budget to adapt to inflationary shocks;

    103. Calls for a root-and-branch reform of the existing special instruments to bolster crisis response capacity and ensure an effective and swift reaction through more rapid mobilisation; underlines that the current instruments are both inadequate in size and constrained by excessive rigidity, with several effectively ring-fenced according to crisis type; points out that enhanced crisis response capacity will ensure that cohesion policy funds are not called upon for that purpose and can therefore be used for their intended investment objectives;

    104. Considers that the post-2027 MFF should include only two special instruments – one dedicated to ensuring solidarity in the event of natural disasters (the successor to the existing European Solidarity Reserve) and one for general-purpose crisis response and for responding to any unforeseen needs and emerging priorities, including where amounts in the special instrument for natural disasters are insufficient (the successor to the Flexibility Instrument); insists that both special instruments should be adequately funded from the outset and able to carry over unspent amounts indefinitely over the MFF period; believes that all other special instruments can either be wound up or subsumed into the two special instruments or into existing programmes;

    105. Calls for the future Flexibility Instrument to be heavily front-loaded and subsequently to be fed through a number of additional sources of financing: unspent margins from previous years (as with the current Single Margin Instrument), the annual surplus from the previous year, a fines-based mechanism modelled on the existing Article 5 of the MFF Regulation, reflows from financial instruments and decommitted appropriations; underlines that the next MFF should be designed such that the future special instruments are not required to cover debt repayment;

    106. Underlines that re-use of the surplus, of reflows from financial instruments and surplus provisioning and of decommitments would require amendments to the Financial Regulation;

    107. Points out that, with sufficient up-front resources and such arrangements for re-using unused funds, the budget would have far greater response capacity without impinging on the predictability of national GNI-based contributions; insists that an MFF endowed with greater flexibility and response capacity is less likely to require a substantial mid-term revision;

    A long-term budget that is more results-focused

    108. Emphasises that, in order to maximise impact, it is imperative that spending under the next MFF be much more rigorously aligned with the Union’s strategic policy aims and better coordinated with spending at national level; underlines that, in turn, consultation with regional and local authorities is vital to facilitate access to funding and ensure that Union support meets the real needs of final recipients and delivers tangible benefits for people; underscores the importance of technical assistance to implementing authorities to help ensure timely implementation, additionality of investments and therefore maximum impact;

    109. Underlines that, in order to support effective coordination between Union and national spending, the Commission envisages a ‘new, lean steering mechanism’ designed ‘to reinforce the link between overall policy coordination and the EU budget’; insists that Parliament play a full decision-making role in any coordination or steering mechanism;

    110. Considers that the RRF, with its focus on performance and links between reforms and investments and budgetary support, has helped to drive national investments and reforms that would not otherwise have taken place;

    111. Underlines that the RRF can help to inform the delivery of Union spending under shared management; recalls, however, that the RRF was agreed in the very specific context of the COVID-19 pandemic and cannot, therefore, be replicated wholesale for future investment programmes;

    112. Points out that spending under shared management in the next MFF must involve regional and local authorities and all relevant stakeholders from design to delivery through a place-based and multilevel governance approach and in line with an improved partnership principle, ensure the cross-border European dimension of investment projects, and focus on results and impact rather than outputs by setting measurable performance indicators, ensuring availability of relevant data and feeding into programme design and adjustment;

    113. Underlines that the design of shared management spending under the next MFF must safeguard Parliament’s role as legislator, budgetary and discharge authority and in holding the executive to account, putting in place strict accountability mechanisms and guaranteeing full transparency in relation to final recipients or groups of recipients of Union spending funds through an interoperable system enabling effective tracking of cash flows and project progress;

    114. Considers that the ‘one national plan per Member State’ approach envisaged by the Commission is not in line with the principles set out above and cannot be the basis for shared management spending post-2027; recalls that, in this regard, the Union is required, under Article 175 TFEU, to provide support through instruments for agricultural, regional and social spending;

    A long-term budget that manages liabilities sustainably

    115. Recalls Parliament’s very firm opposition to subjecting the repayment of NGEU borrowing costs to a cap within an MFF heading given that these costs are subject to market conditions, influenced by external factors and thus inherently volatile, and that the repayment of borrowing costs is a non-discretionary legal obligation; stresses that introducing new own resources is also necessary to prevent future generations from bearing the burden of past debts;

    116. Deplores the fact that, under the existing architecture and despite the joint declaration by the three institutions as part of the 2020 MFF agreement whereby expenditure to cover NGEU financing costs ‘shall aim at not reducing programmes and funds’, financing for key Union programmes and resources available for special instruments, even after the MFF revision, have de facto been competing with the repayment of NGEU borrowing costs in a context of steep inflation and rising interest rates; recalls that pressure on the budget driven by NGEU borrowing costs was a key factor in cuts to flagship programmes in the MFF revision;

    117. Underlines that, to date, the Union budget has been required only to repay interest related to NGEU and that, from 2028 onwards, the budget will also have to repay the capital; underscores that, according to the Commission, the total costs for NGEU capital and interest repayments are projected to be around EUR 25-30 billion a year from 2028, equivalent to 15-20 % of payment appropriations in the 2025 budget;

    118. Acknowledges that, while NGEU borrowing costs will be more stable in the next MFF period as bonds will already have been issued, the precise repayment profile will have an impact on the level of interest and thus on the degree of volatility; insists, therefore, that all costs related to borrowing backed by the Union budget or the budgetary headroom be treated distinctly from appropriations for EU programmes within the MFF architecture;

    119. Points, in that regard, to the increasing demand for the Union budget to serve as a guarantee for the Union’s vital support through macro-financial assistance and the associated risks; underlines that, in the event of default or the withdrawal of national guarantees, the Union budget ultimately underwrites all macro-financial assistance loans and therefore bears significant and inherently unpredictable contingent liabilities, notably in relation to Ukraine;

    120. Calls, therefore, on the Commission to design a sound and durable architecture that enables sustainable management of all non-discretionary costs and liabilities, fully preserving Union programmes and the budget’s flexibility and response capacity;

    A long-term budget that is properly resourced and sustainably financed

    121. Underlines that, as described above, the budgetary needs post-2027 will be significantly higher than the amounts allocated to the 2021-2027 MFF and, in addition, will need to cover borrowing costs and debt repayment; insists, therefore, that the next MFF be endowed with significantly increased resources compared to the 2021-2027 period, moving away from the historically restrictive, self-imposed level of 1 % of GNI, which has prevented the Union from delivering on its ambitions and deprived it of the ability to respond to crises and adapt to emerging needs;

    122. Considers that all instruments and tools should be explored in order to provide the Union with those resources, in line with its priorities and identified needs; considers, in this respect, that joint borrowing through the issuance of EU bonds presents a viable option to ensure that the Union has sufficient resources to respond to acute Union-wide crises such as the ongoing crisis in the area of security and defence;

    123. Reiterates the need for sustainable and resilient revenue for the Union budget; points to the legally binding roadmap towards the introduction of new own resources in the IIA, in which Parliament, the Council and the Commission undertook to introduce sufficient new own resources to at least cover the repayment of NGEU debt; underlines that, overall, the basket of new own resources should be fair, linked to broader Union policy aims and agreed on time and with sufficient volume to meet the heightened budgetary needs;

    124. Recalls its support for the amended Commission proposal on the system of own resources; is deeply concerned by the complete absence of progress on the system of own resources in the Council; calls on the Council to adopt this proposal as a matter of urgency; and urges the Commission to spare no effort in supporting the adoption process;

    125. Calls furthermore, on the Commission to continue efforts to identify additional innovative and genuine new own resources and other revenue sources beyond those specified in the IIA; stresses that new own resources are essential not only to enable repayment of NGEU borrowing, but to ensure that the Union is equipped to cover its the higher spending needs;

    126. Calls on the Commission to design a modernised budget with a renewed spending focus, driven by the need for fairness, greater simplification, a reduced administrative burden and more transparency, including on the revenue side; underlines that existing rebates and corrections automatically expire at the end of the current MFF;

    127. Welcomes the decision, in the recast of the Financial Regulation, to treat as negative revenue any interest or other charge due to a third party relating to amounts of fines, other penalties or sanctions that are cancelled or reduced by the Court of Justice; recalls that this solution comes to an end on 31 December 2027; invites the Commission to propose a definitive solution for the next MFF that achieves the same objective of avoiding any impact on the expenditure side of the budget;

    A long-term budget grounded in close interinstitutional cooperation

    128. Underlines that Parliament intends to fully exercise its prerogatives as legislator, budgetary authority and discharge authority under the Treaties;

    129. Recalls that the requirement for close interinstitutional cooperation between the Commission, the Council and Parliament from the early design stages to the final adoption of the MFF is enshrined in the Treaties and further detailed in the IIA;

    130. Emphasises Parliament’s commitment to play its role fully throughout the process; believes that the design of the MFF should be bottom-up and based on the extensive involvement of stakeholders; underlines, furthermore, the need for a strategic dialogue among the three institutions in the run-up to the MFF proposals;

    131. Calls on the Commission to put forward practical arrangements for cooperation and genuine negotiations from the outset; points, in particular, to the importance of convening meetings of the three Presidents, as per Article 324 TFEU, wherever they can aid progress, and insists that the Commission follow up when Parliament requests such meetings; reminds the Commission of its obligation to provide information to Parliament on an equal footing with the Council as the two arms of the budgetary authority and as co-legislators on MFF-related basic acts;

    132. Recalls that the IIA specifically provides for Parliament, the Council and the Commission to ‘seek to determine specific arrangements for cooperation and dialogue’; stresses that the cooperation provisions set out in the IIA, including regular meetings between Parliament and the Council, are a bare minimum and that much more is needed to give effect to the principle in Article 312(5) TFEU of taking ‘any measure necessary to facilitate the adoption of a new MFF’; calls, therefore, on the successive Council presidencies to respect not only the letter, but also the spirit of the Treaties;

    133. Recalls that the late adoption of the MFF regulation and related legislation for the 2014-2020 and 2021-2027 periods led to significant delays, which hindered the proper implementation of EU programmes; insists, therefore, that every effort be made to ensure timely adoption of the upcoming MFF package;

    134. Expects the Commission, as part of the package of MFF proposals, to put forward a new IIA in line with the realities of the new budget, including with respect to the management of contingent liabilities; stresses that the changes to the Financial Regulation necessary for alignment with the new MFF should enter into force at the same time as the MFF Regulation;

    135. Instructs its President to forward this resolution to the Council and the Commission.

    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: In Dialogue with Turkmenistan, Experts of the Committee against Torture Commend Turkmenistan on Installing Cameras in Places of Detention, Ask about Measures to Prevent Torture in Prisons and the Treatment of Homosexual Persons

    Source: United Nations – Geneva

    The Committee against Torture today concluded its consideration of the eighth periodic report of Turkmenistan, with Committee Experts commending the State for installing cameras in places of detention, while raising questions about measures taken to prevent torture in prisons and the treatment of homosexual persons.

    Liu Huawen, Committee Expert and Country Co-Rapporteur, welcomed that Turkmenistan said it placed high value on human beings, protecting their liberty and fundamental freedoms, and that it had adopted national action plans for protecting human rights, gender equality and children’s rights, and implemented measures to prevent child labour.  It was also commendable that video cameras had been installed in places of detention. Mr. Liu asked questions relating to the operation of these cameras.

    Todd Buchwald, Committee Expert and Country Co-Rapporteur, asked what measures were in place to ensure that legal safeguards against torture were implemented in practice?  Did the State’s laws ensure that medical examinations were independent and conducted within 24 hours of admission into detention centres?  Did all detained persons have the right to challenge their detention? Were all detentions recorded in registers and were there limitations on access to registers?  What measures were in place to ensure that detained persons were informed about the reasons for their arrest promptly in a language they understood both orally and in writing? 

    Mr. Liu said homosexuality remained criminalised in the State party, with up to two years in prison for consensual same sex relations.  Were there any investigations or prosecutions for consensual same sex conduct?  United Nations treaty bodies had repeatedly recommended that the State party repeal this legislation; had any action been taken to implement these recommendations? There had been reports that people who spoke out about issues relating to homosexuality were at risk of being arrested and tortured and that homosexual prisoners were subject to humiliating anal examinations.  Could the delegation comment on these reports?  What measures would be taken to guarantee the rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender persons? 

    The delegation said Turkmenistan took measures to prevent acts of torture and harsh treatment across its territory.  Over the reporting period, it had invested around 14 million United States dollars in construction and repair work for prisons, medical equipment, and training for staff.  In 2023, the number of convicts fell by 4.5 per cent compared to the previous year, and by a further three per cent in 2024, facilitated by measures taken to provide alternatives to custodial sentences, including parole and commuted sentences.  The occupancy rate in the State’s prisons was 83 per cent.  Food, medical and hygiene supplies were provided to inmates to ensure their health at the cost of the State. 

    The delegation said the State recognised human rights but there were certain specific aspects on which they would follow their own line.  Regarding the allegations of torture and ill-treatment against homosexuals, there had been no such allegations recorded.  If specific details could be provided, more specific information could be provided. 

    Introducing the report, Vepa Hajiyev, Permanent Representative of Turkmenistan to the United Nations Office at Geneva and head of the delegation, said a new edition of the Criminal Code, which entered into force in January 2023, included a definition of torture that was fully aligned with article 1 of the Convention.  The Code established criminal liability for acts of torture and explicitly excluded any justification for such acts, including references to orders, exceptional circumstances, or threats to security. Turkmenistan had established the absolute prohibition of torture, as required by international law.

    In closing remarks, Claude Heller, Committee Chair, said the Committee would highlight several priority recommendations within the concluding observations.  The Committee hoped to continue an open, ongoing dialogue with the State party.   

    In his concluding remarks, Mr. Hajiyev expressed gratitude to the Committee for having the opportunity to present the report. Thanks to the open dialogue over the last two days, members of the delegation had identified priority areas to focus on.  There was a need to review the State’s legislation to ensure it was fully aligned with the main provisions of the Convention. 

    The delegation of Turkmenistan consisted of representatives from the Supreme Court; Prosecutor General’s Office; Ministry of Internal Affairs; Ministry of Justice; Institute of State, Law and Democracy of Turkmenistan; and the Permanent Mission of Turkmenistan to the United Nations Office at Geneva.

    The Committee will issue concluding observations on the report of Turkmenistan at the end of its eighty-second session on 2 May.  Those, and other documents relating to the Committee’s work, including reports submitted by States parties, will be available on the session’s webpage.  Summaries of the public meetings of the Committee can be found here, and webcasts of the public meetings can be found here.

    The Committee will next meet in public on Friday, 25 April at 3 p.m. to continue its consideration of the seventh periodic report of Ukraine (CAT/C/UKR/7).

    Report

    The Committee has before it the third periodic report of Turkmenistan (CAT/C/TKM/3).

    Presentation of Report

    VEPA HAJIYEV, Permanent Representative of Turkmenistan to the United Nations Office at Geneva and head of the delegation, said that following the review of Turkmenistan’s second periodic report by the Committee, the State party had developed an action plan for the implementation of the Committee’s recommendations.  Some 50 subparagraphs of the Committee’s concluding observations had been fully or partially implemented; and 16 were currently being implemented.

    State, law enforcement, and civil society institutions were carrying out practical efforts to prevent conditions that could lead to cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment.  The State was implementing national action plans on human rights, gender equality and children’s rights, and against corruption and trafficking, which had specific goals and objectives and indicators for evaluating the results attained.

    A new edition of the Criminal Code, which entered into force in January 2023, included a definition of torture that was fully aligned with article 1 of the Convention.  The Code established criminal liability for acts of torture and explicitly excluded any justification for such acts, including references to orders, exceptional circumstances, or threats to security. Turkmenistan had established the absolute prohibition of torture, as required by international law.

    In recent years, Turkmenistan had been implementing measures to strengthen the institutional capacity of the Ombudsman.  In 2024, new departments were created within the Ombudsman’s Office and the number of staff increased.  Amendments made in 2024 to the law on the Ombudsman enhanced the Ombudsman’s ability to restore violated rights and broadened the scope for applying preventive measures.  The Ombudsman’s Office continued to closely cooperate with international organizations to bring its mandate fully in line with the Paris Principles and was developing a roadmap for upgrading its status to category “A”.

    Turkmenistan had undertaken a comprehensive set of reforms aimed at improving the judicial system and enhancing the quality of justice.  The State Concept for the Development of the Judicial System for 2022-2028 aimed to improve the legislative framework governing the functioning of the courts, the qualifications of judicial system personnel, and the material and technical infrastructure of the courts, as well as expand international legal cooperation.  In April 2025, a new edition of the law on the judiciary was adopted, which incorporated key international standards related to the independence and competence of judges, as well as measures aimed at enhancing the efficiency of the courts.

    To modernise and standardise the process of professional development for judges and judicial staff, a new procedure for organising and conducting relevant training activities was approved in 2023.  Turkmenistan was also implementing a phased digitalisation of its judiciary to enhance transparency, facilitating video and audio recording of court proceedings and digital access to judicial information and services.  Between 2020 and 2025, lawyers provided legal assistance in 530 cases of detention where unlawful actions falling under the scope of the Convention were identified.

    In line with the Committee’s concluding observations, internal regulations governing conditions of detention had been introduced.  These rules covered living conditions, medical care, and the rights to phone calls, visits, walks, and to receive parcels.  Particular attention was paid to medical supervision and the documentation of physical injuries.  Every individual admitted to a penitentiary facility underwent a mandatory medical examination.  Any injuries discovered were documented, and in cases where violence was suspected, an additional investigation was carried out. 

    Between 2020 and 2023, large-scale reconstruction and capital repairs were carried out in 12 penitentiary institutions.  These efforts aimed to bring detention conditions in line with the Mandela Rules. Monitoring visits by the Ombudsman and Public Monitoring Commissions were regularly organised – a total of 20 visits to places of detention were conducted in 2023-2024 alone.

    Criminal procedural legislation explicitly prohibited the use of evidence obtained through torture, threats, deception, or cruel treatment.  All institutions under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Internal Affairs had implemented the practice of video recording interrogations to ensure transparency and help prevent potential abuses.

    The Criminal Code provided for liability for violent acts within the household.  A national survey was conducted in cooperation with the United Nations Population Fund on domestic violence against women, and based on its findings, a roadmap for the prevention of domestic violence for 2022–2025 was developed.  The State aimed to introduce clear definitions, establish penalties, and create comprehensive protection mechanisms for vulnerable groups, including conducting awareness-raising campaigns.  Human rights education and the prevention of torture were integral components of the training of law enforcement personnel.

    A cooperation plan between the Government and the International Committee of the Red Cross Representation for 2025 had been approved, which included seminars and lectures on international standards of law enforcement for relevant agency personnel, and awareness-raising initiatives on international norms related to the treatment of persons deprived of liberty and to penitentiary standards. Discussions were ongoing on the possible organization of visits to places of detention by the International Committee of the Red Cross.  Direct contact had also been established since 2024 with Human Rights Watch and other human rights organizations.

    Questions by Committee Experts

    TODD BUCHWALD, Committee Expert and Country Co-Rapporteur, said there were reports of numerous enforced disappearances in Turkmenistan, the victims of which remained behind bars without access to family members.  There were 162 reports of such disappearances by the Prove-They-Are-Alive campaign, including 29 persons who had died in custody. There were also reports of cruel treatment of detainees, lack of independence of the judiciary, harassment of journalists and human rights defenders, and a culture of impunity. Did the State have sufficient mechanisms to identify torture and ill-treatment?  What had the State party done to investigate the 162 reported cases of enforced disappearance?

    What measures were in place to ensure that legal safeguards against torture were implemented in practice? Did the State’s laws ensure that medical examinations were independent and conducted within 24 hours of admission into detention centres?  Did all detained persons have the right to challenge their detention?  Were all detentions recorded in registers and were there limitations on access to registers?  What measures were in place to ensure that detained persons were informed about the reasons for their arrest promptly in a language they understood both orally and in writing? 

    In which circumstances did the right to free legal assistance for accused persons apply?  There were cases in which accused persons had reportedly struggled to obtain legal representation.  How did the State ensure that lawyers were not dissuaded from representing clients seen as controversial, and that lawyers were well-trained and independent?  There were reports of closed trials; what legal rules governed such trials?  Was the right to immediately inform family members of detention provided in law and in practice?  Were officers that failed to provide these safeguards punished? How many complaints had been received related to the lack of provision of safeguards and what investigations had been carried out in response?

    Turkmenistan remained largely closed to international scrutiny.  It had issued a standing invitation to special procedures in 2018 but had not accepted all but one of the 15 requests for visits received since, and the one visit that was accepted had not yet been carried out.  How would the State party improve cooperation with special procedures? Did the International Committee of the Red Cross have access to places of deprivation of liberty?  How many meetings between representatives of international organizations and detained persons had been held in the last three years, and how were such persons protected from reprisals?

    What was the Government doing to ratify the Optional Protocol and to accept the Committee’s jurisdiction to receive individual communications?  What awareness raising campaigns was the State party carrying out regarding the Committee’s concluding observations?  Were translated versions of the concluding observations published online?  The State had not provided data in response to several of the questions posed by the Committee in the list of issues.  What measures were in place to develop the State’s capacities in data collection?

    There were concerns that the Ombudsman’s Office lacked independence and had not taken steps to address torture and ill-treatment.  Its reports failed to adequately address human rights violations, and it had not submitted a report to the Committee before the dialogue.  What was the State party doing to strengthen the mandate of the Ombudsman’s Office to investigate human rights violations?  The Office had no mandate to conduct visits to places of detention; would such a mandate be established?  Did the Ombudsman require prior permission to conduct such visits? 

    Complaints from individuals could only be considered by the Ombudsman within one year, eliminating the possibility of investigating historical crimes.  Would this rule be eliminated?  What measures were in place to ensure that complaints submitted to the Ombudsman were kept confidential?  There had been few appeals to the Ombudsman’s Office by persons deprived of liberty; why was this?  Had the Office recommended ratifying international human rights treaties and facilitating visits by special procedures?  How many times had the Ombudsman concluded that there had been a human rights violation and what actions were taken in response?

    Turkmenistan had not granted asylum to any person since 2005.  How was the State party strengthening its asylum procedures?  Did it cooperate with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees?  Persons unable to document their lack of nationality were denied statelessness status. Was the State party working to address this issue?

    Mr. Buchwald cited reports of prison staff torturing prisoners, including by beating a man to death with a soldering iron, denying an ill prisoner medical treatment, and torturing a man with an electric current.  How did the State party prevent torture in detention and investigate all reported cases? There were also reports of forcible transfers of critics of the State living abroad to Turkmenistan, where they were subjected to abuse and enforced disappearance, and of travel bans imposed on activists who opposed the Government.  How would the State party guarantee activists’ safety and right to travel?

    LIU HUAWEN, Committee Expert and Country Co-Rapporteur, welcomed that the State said it placed high value on human beings, protecting their liberty and fundamental freedoms, and that it had adopted national action plans for protecting human rights, gender equality and children’s rights, and implemented measures to prevent child labour. 

    The Committee also welcomed the training activities carried out for the police.  However, there was no mechanism for assessing the effectiveness of this training.  Was training mandatory and how many personnel had participated?  It was commendable that annual training was provided for judges of the Supreme Court.  What training was provided for judicial personnel in other courts and medical personnel involved in the treatment of detainees?  Did such training address the revised Istanbul Protocol? 

    The Committee was concerned by the absence of guidelines on the prohibition of torture in the healthcare sector?  Would such guidelines be developed?  Were there ongoing training programmes on the prohibition of torture for police officers and prison staff?  Were international personnel involved in the design and presentation of this training?

    It was commendable that video cameras had been installed in places of detention.  What percentage of places of deprivation of liberty had been equipped? Were all interrogations recorded? Were there consequences for failing to record interrogations?  Were there limitations on access to recordings by detained persons and their lawyers?

    How many persons were detained in Turkmenistan’s prisons and for what period of time?  What efforts were underway to expand alternatives to detention? There were reports that prisons held nearly three times their capacity, and that Turkmenistan had the fourth highest incarceration rate globally.  What steps had been taken to reduce occupancy rates?

    There were reports of failures to provide timely medical examinations and delays in isolating prisoners with tuberculosis, which increased the risk of spread of the disease.  Prisoners reportedly needed to pay for medications that should be provided for free.  Some detainees went months without being provided access to leisure facilities within prisons.  Could the delegation comment on these issues?

    Persons could reportedly be placed in solitary confinement for up to three months, left in total darkness with a lack of access to water or basic hygiene.  How was the use of solitary confinement documented and regulated? Had measures been taken to gradually end the use of prolonged solitary confinement, which was reportedly used as a tool of repression against political prisoners?  What rules governed visitation rights and phone calls for persons in solitary confinement?

    How did the State party ensure that meetings between lawyers and remand prisoners were private?  Were there provisions prohibiting the interrogation of suspects before lawyers were present?  Could refusals to give testimony be used against detainees in court?

    The Committee called for data on inter-prisoner violence and deaths in custody, and investigations into such cases. How did the State party ensure that family members could request independent autopsies of deaths in custody and that victims of violence in prisons could report the incident? Police officers had the right to use physical force to protect the rights and freedoms of citizens and prevent “socially dangerous acts” under State law.  This law seemed exceedingly broad.  Did it apply to the use of firearms?  Were there more specific rules governing the use of force?  What investigations had been carried out into excessive use of force by the police and what were their outcomes?

    There were reports that patients in psychiatric facilities were abused by staff.  What measures were in place to improve complaints mechanisms in such facilities?  How did the State party oversee involuntary hospitalisations?  In how many cases had restraints been used in psychiatric facilities, and what types of restraints were used?

    How did the State party ensure that appropriate support services were provided to victims of torture?  What measures were in place to provide redress, compensation and rehabilitation to victims?

    The Committee welcomed the criminalisation of corporal punishment in all settings and measures taken to protect children from violence, including the appointment of inspectors specialising in violence against children.  How many cases had they investigated?  The Committee also welcomed the establishment of juvenile courts.  How many cases had they assessed?  What measures were in place to prevent the detention of juveniles?

    Gender-based violence had not been established as a separate crime in the Criminal Code, though there were many cases of gender-based violence in the State.  Had the roadmap developed to prevent gender-based violence been published online?  What progress had been made in implementing it?  What were the obstacles to adopting a law on gender-based violence?  How did the State party evaluate its awareness raising activities on gender-based violence?  Were victims support services in place?  How many shelters for victims and hotlines for reporting violence had been established? 

    High school girls were reportedly subjected to forced virginity tests, and information on girls found to have had sexual relations was reportedly passed to police.  How did the State party prevent this practice?

    Other Committee Experts asked questions on the national action plan on countering terrorism and the international organizations the State party partnered with to implement the plan; how legal safeguards were ensured for persons suspected of terrorism; the number of convictions imposed under anti-terrorism legislation; reforms adopted to align the legislative framework on terrorism with the State’s international obligations; the number of juveniles, particularly girls, currently in detention and the conditions in which they were held; measures to prevent overcrowding and ensure access to healthcare in prisons; and complaints and monitoring mechanisms in place for juvenile detention.

    Responses by the Delegation

    The delegation said Turkmenistan took measures to prevent acts of torture and harsh treatment across its territory.  Over the reporting period, it had invested around 14 million United States dollars in construction and repair work for prisons, bought medical equipment, and ensured training for staff.  In 2023, the number of convicts fell by four and a half per cent compared to the previous year, and by a further three per cent in 2024, facilitated by measures taken to provide alternatives to custodial sentences, including parole and commuted sentences. 

    The occupancy rate in the State’s prisons was 83 per cent.  Food, medical and hygiene supplies were provided to inmates to ensure their health at the cost of the State.  Allegations of infected inmates not being separated from other inmates were unfounded; such inmates were transferred to prison hospitals for treatment.  The State had examined eight complaints from prisoners in 2023 and five in 2024, finding no wrongdoing by State officials in each case.  Regular training sessions were organised for prison staff, which addressed basic standards for treating inmates.  Over 2,000 training sessions were carried out between 2022 and 2024.

    Turkmenistan had continued to develop its legislation on torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment.  Between 2022 and 2024, orders were issued on strengthening supervisory work on places of deprivation of liberty and on creating a special body for regulating medical examinations in prisons.

    The Ombudsman’s Office had access to all places of deprivation of liberty and did not need prior permission to conduct visits.  It verified the sanitary norms of establishments, the right to food and healthcare, and the right to visits and to receive parcels from family members. The Office had issued recommendations on improving detention facilities and healthcare services in prisons that the Government was working to implement.  No complaints had been received by the Ombudsman on the lack of provision of parole, or from inmates in detention centres for women or juveniles.

    Work had been undertaken to ensure that police stations and remand prisons were equipped with audio-visual recording devices.  Access to recordings was given to the Ombudsman and legal counsel.

    The national action plan on gender equality for 2021-2025 included measures to combat gender-based violence against women and girls, including domestic violence.  A survey conducted by the State showed that some 12 per cent of women in Turkmenistan had been subjected to domestic violence.  A roadmap to implement the survey’s recommendations had been developed, which included plans to develop a rapid response mechanism for domestic violence. 

    The State had established a pilot system of family support centres where social workers provided support for victims of violence; this would soon be expanded.  There were also hotlines that victims could use to report violence.  The Government was studying legislation on domestic violence in other countries with a view to developing such legislation domestically.

    The delegation said Turkmenistan regularly provided information on individual cases to various United Nations structures.  Turkmenistan had given information concerning individuals to certain countries, and special procedures had closed these cases.  The State would continue to provide information to the special procedures and other interested parties.  There was no special complaints mechanism for cases of cruel or inhumane treatment, but a complaint could be submitted to authorities of law enforcement via writing or in person.  The Special Prosecutor visited places of detention to monitor the work of the penitentiary institutions. 

    According to the Criminal Code, the diagnosis of an illness could be a ground for early release, and a decision would be taken by a court.  The delegation cited several cases, including one prisoner who in 2017 was convicted of smuggling psychoactive substances, and was pardoned in 2020.  Three years later, another criminal case was initiated against him, after which he was placed on a wanted list.  He hid in a mountainous area for some time without food and medication, surviving on psychoactive substances.  When he was detained, he already had multiple forms of bodily harm, developed during his time in the mountains, and he died three days after he was detained due to an overdose from psychoactive substances. Evidence that his cause of death was bodily harm due to torture was not true and this had been confirmed by the forensic investigation.  Turkmenistan’s actions throughout all cases had been aimed at protecting its citizens.

    The memorandum on humanitarian visits had not yet been signed, as negotiations had been interrupted six years ago.  In 2024, the Turkmen side took the initiative to discuss the text again and was waiting to hear from the International Criminal Court.  The State was ready to consider requests from the International Criminal Court to visit places of detention. 

    Immediately after the appeal of the High Commissioner for Refugees to grant asylum to citizens of Afghanistan, Turkmenistan as a neighbouring country expressed willingness to make all resources available to facilitate transport to third countries.  About 150 Afghan citizens received temporary visas while they awaited permission to move to other countries.  A person had the right to continue to stay in the country until their status was determined officially, whether this was a stateless person, or an individual of another country.  During the COVID-19 pandemic, amendments were made to the law on migration which provided for the option to extend the validity of passports in emergency situations.  A passport could only be renewed twice and only in extraordinary legal circumstances.

    Not all countries of the world had the practice of issuing passports abroad, as this required significant resources and would become an additional burden on the State.  Primary requests to obtain a passport abroad could be submitted electronically.  The Government was looking to simplify the procedure for issuing passports. 

    Solitary confinement was only meted out to prisoners for intentional violations and measures.  Training courses regarding torture and solitary confinement were provided to the Ministry of Interior staff.  A learning course had been started for the doctors working in the penitentiary system to update their knowledge of tuberculosis and treatment.  Medical units were present within each penitentiary establishment.  The treatment plan for the multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis was fully functioning.  Work was ongoing to deal with cases of tuberculosis, and penitentiary administrations were responsible for ensuring the good health of convicts.

    Last month, a monitoring visit had been conducted to see seven Turkish prisoners serving sentences in Turkmenistan. There was only one establishment for juvenile offenders, and the occupancy rate was 22 per cent of its total capacity.  Juvenile female offenders were held separately from male offenders. 

    Turkmenistan had successfully implemented a national strategy to prevent violent extremism and combat terrorism and was preparing the new strategy for 2025-2030.   

    Around 94 court rooms had audio and video cameras, representing more than 90 per cent of courtrooms in the country. This work on the digitalisation of courts was continuing.  The accused had the right to view all documents related to the case, including documents and video recordings.  Relevant work was carried out to implement the provisions of the Convention.  The new version of the Criminal Code entered into force in January 2023 and punishment for certain crimes had been reduced. 

    All courts in Turkmenistan had special rooms for minors, increasing their protection.  A new provision had been introduced, in which a minor committing an offence for the first time, providing it was a medium offence or below, would not be imprisoned.  There had been a drop in the numbers of minors imprisoned by 35 per cent in 2024, compared to 2020, as a result. 

    According to the Criminal Code, data should not be considered admissible in court if acquired through violations of the law, including torture, violence or threat.  Courts now had specialised judges on family matters to ensure the best interests of children.  A lawyer was available from the moment of detention or indictment.  In the event of remand of a minor, or a person with a disability, there were specific provisions.  Use of an interpreter could be requested. 

    In each case of detention, a notification was sent in writing to the Office of the Public Prosecutor, within 24 hours from the moment of detention.  The Office of the Public Prosecutor had the right to cancel an unlawful detention.  Without the authorisation of the Public Prosecutor, a detainee needed to be released after 24 hours, with the arrest communicated to close relatives. 

    Disciplinary measures were taken against staff and other officials who breached guaranteed safeguards.  The Code of Criminal Procedure was in keeping with international treaties, which meant there were guarantees to safeguard the rights of the accused. 

    To date, Turkmenistan had two national action plans on combatting human trafficking.  The penalty for this crime had been strengthened to between 15 to 20 years in prison.  A Commission on Combatting Human Trafficking had been established in Turkmenistan, which included 13 State bodies working on this issue.  In July 2024, the first meeting of the Commission was held.  The Commission was tasked with ensuring the implementation of the national action plan, including through prevention, protection, and prosecution, providing assistance to victims, and carrying out awareness raising events.  The national action plan 2020-2025 was adopted by a decree. 

    The Ministry of Justice provided support to the Bar Association of the country.  There were six associations of lawyers in Turkmenistan.  Over the last four years, lawyers in Turkmenistan had participated in 48 training sessions on human rights and had carried out more than 3,000 visits to places to detention.  A conference had taken place where participants from many countries exchanged views on how to better protect lawyers.  The State stood ready to continue work in the legal area, promote a legal culture, and strengthen international cooperation.

    There had been no complaints recorded about forced virginity tests, but the delegation would look into any case if information was provided.  In certain cases, law enforcement bodies could ask for medical tests to be carried out in the framework of existing legislation.  A roadmap had been developed for the ratification of the Optional Protocol and work was ongoing in this respect. 

    Questions by Committee Experts

    TODD BUCHWALD, Committee Expert and Country Co-Rapporteur, said many bodies and individuals had made allegations, which the State party had denied.  The bodies making these allegations were highly credible.  The Committee recommended the ratification of the Optional Protocol to the Convention as a critical step for the State party, as well as having a regular relationship with the International Criminal Court.  Were the recommendations from Committees made available in all major newspapers? 

    The Ombudsman had not received any complaints which was concerning.  Did this suggest a need to deal more assertively with the problem?  It was positive that the Ombudsman had access to all places of deprivation of liberty; however, it was inferred that she had not visited some facilities.  Was this correct?  Was it possible to share the data responsive to the Committee’s list of issues?  There was data available on overcrowding, so it would be helpful to provide disaggregated data split by facility. 

    How was it determined whether information published by journalists was true, accurate or impartial?  What were the penalties for publishing information which was determined not to fall under this category?  What were the prospects for revising the law so there would be no statute of limitations for the crime of torture? 

    LIU HUAWEN, Committee Expert and Country Co-Rapporteur, said there had been progress in the field of family law.  Today, domestic violence was not a matter of private law, but a focus of public law.  Marriage and family membership should not deprive any person of her or his basic human rights. 

    Turkmenistan’s strict abortion restrictions could create a cruel, inhumane or degrading environment for women, with abortion banned after five weeks, which was before many women realised they were pregnant.  Reproductive health care was limited, forcing women towards unsafe methods which endangered their health and lives.  These laws contributed to preventable maternal deaths and increased health risks. It was regretful that Turkmenistan did not provide access to emergency contraceptives. 

    The Committee suggested that the State party align its legal framework with international standards.  Would the State party take concrete steps to ensure access to safe abortion nation-wide and to reduce teenage pregnancies, including by providing access to contraceptives and reproductive services? Would the State ensure that doctors and medical professionals provided safe abortions for women whose lives were at risk due to pregnancy? 

    Homosexuality remained criminalised in the State party, with up to two years in prison for consensual same sex relations.  Were there any investigations or prosecutions for consensual same sex conduct?  United Nations treaty bodies had repeatedly recommended that the State party repeal this legislation; had any action been taken to implement these recommendations?  There had been reports that people who spoke out about issues relating to homosexuality were at risk of being arrested and tortured and that homosexual prisoners were subject to humiliating anal examinations.  Could the delegation comment on these reports? 

    What measures would be taken to guarantee the rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender persons?  Would the State party provide systematic training for law enforcement officers, police officers and members of the judiciary on human rights standards for gender and sexual identity orientation?

    As a neutral country, Turkmenistan could play a more constructive and unique role in international cooperation. It was hoped Turkmenistan would make a greater contribution to global governance, including through the effective implementation of the Convention. 

    A Committee Expert asked if there was monitoring of places of deprivation of liberty where minors were held? Who carried out this monitoring activity? 

    Another Expert asked about the legislation to combat terrorism; could more specific information be provided? 

    Responses by the Delegation 

    The delegation said cooperation was something which Turkmenistan needed to improve.  The State party worked with various international organizations and human rights committees in Geneva.  All decisions and conclusions voiced within the Committee needed to be based on established and recognised standards.  Often the opinions of law enforcement bodies were interpreted objectively, and the State was trying to bridge the gap by involving representatives of civil society to enable human rights organizations to better understand the individual cases. There was a clear imbalance of information, and the State was doing its best to address this.  The State did not plan the official publication of results of the Committee’s recommendations, but if others wished to publish them, they could do so.

    The Ombudsperson visited prisons, but it was important to enhance the capacities of the institution to ensure it had greater access to places of detention.  The State recognised human rights but there were certain specific aspects on which they would follow their own line.  Regarding the allegations of torture and ill-treatment against homosexuals, there had been no such allegations recorded.  If specific details could be provided, more specific information could be provided. 

    As a neutral state, Turkmenistan was working to advocate for the values of peace and trust to ensure the Sustainable Development Goals were met.   

    Currently, Turkmenistan was a party to the 19 legal instruments combatting terrorism.  The law on combatting terrorism included legal protection of citizens for their participation in combatting terrorism. The State had extensive levels of cooperation in this area.  There were no issues of overcrowding in prisons.  The State rejected allegations that there had been an increase in the number of minors detained.  There had been single cases, which did not represent a serious problem in the country. Institutions for minors serving sentences functioning under the auspices of the Ministry of Interior were monitored by the Ombudsman and other institutions. 

    Turkmenistan worked closely with the counterterrorism mechanism of the United Nations.  A seminar had been held in Doha about the spread of terrorist ideas through the internet. 

    Women had the permission to interrupt pregnancies after the established timeframe, but this was based on an individual approach, relating to specific circumstances.  Having abortions outside of medical institutions involved serious risks to the health of women.  To prevent illegal abortions, there were special provisions in the law of responsibility.  Written agreement was required from parents only if the girl was under the age of 18. 

    In 2023, the General Prosecutor’s Office of Turkmenistan, in conjunction with the United Nations Development Programme, organised special seminars attended by over 100 participants from law enforcement agencies.  Such events, relating to refresher training, took place all over the world, including in the United States, Europe and Asia.  In March this year, Turkmenistan held a briefing relating to the presentation of a national plan on combatting trafficking. 

    Turkmenistan had ratified a significant number of legal instruments and it received bilateral requests on extradition related to criminal prosecutions, including for crimes of torture.  When a person was extradited, Turkmenistan took into account all guarantees provided in relevant United Nations Conventions. In each case, the situation of the person was reviewed to ensure the person would not be subject to torture in the country to which the person was extradited.  It was necessary to receive a written confirmation from the State that torture would not be used against those individuals. 

    Closing Remarks 

    CLAUDE HELLER, Committee Chairperson, said the delegation had 48 hours to provide the Committee with additional information.  The Committee would highlight several priority recommendations within the concluding observations.  The Committee hoped to continue an open, ongoing dialogue with the State party.   

    VEPA HAJIYEV, Permanent Representative of Turkmenistan to the United Nations Office at Geneva and head of the delegation, expressed gratitude to the Committee for having the opportunity to present the report.  Thanks to the open dialogue over the last two days, members of the delegation had identified priority areas to focus on.  The Committee’s recommendations would be thoroughly reviewed.  There was a need to review the State’s legislation to ensure it was fully aligned with the main provisions of the Convention.  Any progress required work and readiness to move forward. 

    ___________

    Produced by the United Nations Information Service in Geneva for use of the media; 
    not an official record. English and French versions of our releases are different as they are the product of two separate coverage teams that work independently.

     

    CAT25.007E

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI: Best Online Casinos Canada: Why 7Bit Casino Is Ranked As Top Canadian Online Casino

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

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    Disclaimer and Affiliate Disclosure
    General Disclaimer
    This article is for informational and entertainment purposes only, not legal or financial advice. Content is based on research and user reviews as of writing. No warranties are made, and users must verify information before acting.

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    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Pope Francis and his “beloved tormented Syria”

    Source: Agenzia Fides – MIL OSI

    by Jacques Mourad*Homs (Fides Agency) – We have been celebrating Mass for Pope Francis every day since he went to heaven. We do this to remember him and pray for his soul.He was a person who chose to live humbly, close to all the poor, both in Argentina, when he was first a priest and then a bishop, and in Rome when he became Pope.This is a very important message, because it is the message of the Church, who is a mother.The Pope, bishops, and parish priests are shepherds who accompany the children of this Church, taking them by the hand and walking toward the Father. Not only on a spiritual level, through prayer or teaching, but also through caring for their bodies. The last months of the Pope’s life, spent in hospital, shed light on precisely these aspects, spiritual and physical. He himself understood the beauty of the art of care practiced by doctors and nurses.He seemed fragile in recent times, but I remember his strong attitude and his clear stance before the world’s most powerful figures. He was also strong when he met the leaders of Sudan and prostrated himself before them to kiss their shoes, asking them to agree to peace. He showed the same strength in Cuba when he met Patriarch Kirill.I also remember my first personal meeting with him, which took place at Casa Santa Marta after my escape. It was my first face-to-face encounter with Pope Francis, at Mass in Santa Marta, after my imprisonment. We greeted each other and he said to me: “Pray for me.” I remembered when he said it for the first time from the balcony of St. Peter’s Loggia on March 13, the day of his election. But when he asked me in person, it was different; it moved me deeply.The last time I saw him was on December 7, 2024.He welcomed me into his office with great simplicity, we talked about many things, and he listened to me the whole time. With his usual manner and laughter. The meeting took place in an atmosphere of joy.This human aspect was important and very beautiful for me. I was nervous that day because meeting the Pope is always a moment of grace. I left Santa Marta with my heart full of joy. I felt like I was flying. For me, that face is the face of the Church: sensitive to the human and spiritual side. We all need this attention from the Church, which must be clear and strong but at the same time must practice tenderness. And Pope Francis has truly been an example of this.There would be so much more to say, but I think the most important thing is to remember the space he gave to Syria. To stop the conflict, he called for a day of fasting and special prayer, just as he did for Ukraine. But I also think of the appeals he made for Gaza.“Beloved tormented Syria”, he always referred to it as such, even when he wrote to President Assad asking him to respect human rights for prisoners as well as for the people, and to allow Syrian migrants to return home. To prevent them from dying, he fought to create humanitarian corridors, which still exist today thanks in part to Sant’Egidio, asking parish priests throughout Europe to welcome Syrian refugees. He himself met them in Lesbos, taking some of them away with him on the papal plane.I remember the criticism he faced when he welcomed a Syrian Muslim family to the Vatican. It was a very important sign, which meant going beyond divisions based on religious identity to open up to humanity. In this perspective, the interreligious dialogue he promoted, as well as his friendship with the Imam of al-Azhar, which led to the Declaration on Human Fraternity, are also important. Now that he has gone to heaven, we must preserve his legacy and live it everywhere, because, as he showed us, the Church cannot remain closed within walls.*Syriac Catholic Archbishop of Homs, Hama, and Nebek
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    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: PM meeting with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen: 24 April 2025

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Press release

    PM meeting with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen: 24 April 2025

    The Prime Minister met the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in Downing Street.

    The Prime Minister met the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in Downing Street today.

    They had a long and productive discussion focused on a range of issues including Ukraine, energy security, the global economy, and defence.   

    Both condemned the deadly Russian strike on Kyiv overnight and reiterated that they will continue to stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.

    Discussing the ongoing negotiations to strengthen the UK-EU partnership, they both agreed that good progress had been made. They asked their teams to continue their important work in the coming weeks, with the aim of delivering as ambitious a package as possible at the first UK-EU summit next month.  

    The Prime Minister was clear that he will seize any opportunity to improve the lives of working people in the United Kingdom, drive growth and keep people safe – and he believes a strengthened partnership between the UK and the EU will achieve this.

    They agreed to keep in close contact in the coming weeks.

    Updates to this page

    Published 25 April 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Minister for European Union Relations’ Lecture at the Conference on Baltic Studies in Europe

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Speech

    Minister for European Union Relations’ Lecture at the Conference on Baltic Studies in Europe

    A lecture delivered by the Minister for European Union Relations, The Rt Hon Nick Thomas-Symonds, at the Conference on Baltic Studies in Europe, University of Cambridge

    Introduction

    It’s a pleasure to be here with you all. Before I begin, I would like to thank the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies for hosting this important conference.

    I would also like to thank my friend Charles Clarke, not only for the invitation to speak here today.

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    As part of that career, his time as Home Secretary, he had to deal daily with the implications of a complex and dangerous world, encapsulated by the heinous 7/7 attacks.

    While the nature of the threats our country faces have evolved since then – we know that the threats to our security, our economy and way of life are as pronounced now as they have been at any time in post war history.

    And these challenges do not just face the UK – or any one of our allies – alone; we face them, together. Therefore, it is crucial to ask how we can leverage our longstanding international relationships – and build upon them – to face these challenges together.

    The United Kingdom and the Baltic States enjoy an alliance built on shared values, on open trade, on a strategic, robust approach to defence.

    We respect one another, and it is through this respect that we work alongside each other – whether directly or through international organisations – to the benefit of our societies.

    Our citizens not only celebrate freedoms, but also realise that they are hard won and must be defended.

    I believe that – through the UK’s mission to go beyond the status quo with the European Union and grow our strategic alliance with our biggest trading partner – we could build on our relationship even further, to make us more prosperous, safer and better defended.

    I should clarify that – in the spirit of this broad alliance – while I will mainly be talking about Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, I will also be touching on the Baltic Sea States, the other countries that share the same icy waters, including Sweden, Poland and Finland, which I understand follows the remit of this centre.

    Relationship with the Baltics

    Just over a month ago, the Times journalist Oliver Moody gave a talk at this university – at the Centre for Geopolitics – about his book ‘Baltic: The Future of Europe’.

    He spoke about the remarkable journey that the Baltic Sea States have taken over the last century: not just armed conflict, but the push and pull between independence, occupation and independence again.

    Reflecting on where we are now, he said: “This is the most coherent that north-eastern Europe has ever been. You have the Nordic and Baltic States working on a more equal footing than ever before, you have Poland starting to look north, and Germany is getting more involved”. He capped his remarks off by saying that this teamwork would have delighted the former Prime Minister of Estonia – Jaan Tonisson – who campaigned for a Scandinavian Superstate in 1917. Moody said that this cooperation is nothing short of “Jaan Tonisson’s dream, on steroids”.

    That claim is probably for the experts in this room to take a view on, but what is clear is the sheer depth of the shared objectives, opportunities and challenges.

    When you consider the history of these countries, this state of play is all the more remarkable. After all, to study the 20th Century developments of the Baltic States is to study world history. I am proud to say that, in many ways, the United Kingdom has been a positive part of that history, especially with Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

    When the British public were rejoicing throughout the UK on Armistice Day in 1918, the Royal Navy had no time to rest, as they started their campaign in the Baltic. They were playing their part to establish an independent Estonia and Latvia, providing weapons, ammunition and much-needed support, where over 100 naval servicemen bravely lost their lives for Baltic independence. In May 2022, the UK and Lithuania agreed a Joint Declaration to mark 100 years of bilateral relations, but it also looked towards the future. It outlined an agreement to boost defence and security collaboration, build closer trade ties, and promote people-to-people links.

    We already start from a strong place, as the UK is a home to many Baltic people – well over 350,000 of them.

    We host Latvia’s largest diaspora, as well as Lithuania’s and Estonian’s largest European diaspora. Our trading relationship is positive, which accounts for over £6bn in goods and services – up from last year. Who would have thought, from just over thirty years of Estonian independence, that there would be an Estonian bank running offices in London, Manchester and Leeds, or an Estonian defence company setting up a production facility for air defence missiles in Wales.

    I greatly admire the spirit, the fortitude and the determination of the Baltic States; they have known what it is to lose their freedom, their independence and – as a result – are embracing its benefits. The Baltic tech sector – for example – has one of the strongest and most innovative ecosystems within Europe, a fact elegantly demonstrated at this year’s Oscars, when a wholly digitally designed film from Latvia won the Best Animated Feature, against long-established studios like the US’s Pixar and the UK’s Aardman Animations.  

    Many Baltic firms are key investors in the UK, and have excelled in areas where others have stumbled, because they have had a clear focus on innovation and progress.

    Indeed, I have deeply appreciated my time with the Baltic Sea States. Last year, in Opposition, I visited Estonia – to meet with various leaders who are working tirelessly to defend their homeland. I was struck not only by the scale of the Russian threat their face – especially in areas like cyber-warfare – but also by their determination to rise to that challenge.

    Also, during a visit to Stockholm, I went to the SAAB Headquarters – who recently announced that they will be supplying the Latvian Government with a short-range ground-based air defence system. We spoke openly about the importance of cross-Europe defence, and they were very grateful for the UK’s renewed focus on European defence, and the Prime Minister’s leadership.

    Ukraine

    This historic collaboration – these well-defined relationships – only adds to our collective strength when we consider countering the complex situation, facing the world reshaped by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    Of course, to many of the Baltic Sea States, Russian aggression is nothing new. Indeed, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are ardent supporters of the Ukrainian fighters seeking to overcome this illegal Russian invasion. And they have shown this support in many ways – including as key hosts for Ukrainian refugees. According to the U.S. think tank The Wilson Centre, Estonia has hosted approximately 40,000 Ukrainian refugees, Latvia has around 50,000, and Lithuania has issued more than 50,000 visas.  A record of support that the UK also shares, and I am proud of the role my own constituency is playing in hosting Ukrainian families.

    In stepping up to defend the freedoms the UK and Baltic nations enjoy we recognise the hard-won sovereignty and dignity which the Baltic States have worked so hard to secure.

    I know from my own personal experience from meeting those defence officials – many with frontline experience on their border with Russia and Ukraine – that the threat they feel is not theoretical, it is existential. The defence of the Baltic Sea is – unquestionably – as important now as ever. That is why NATO takes this issue so seriously, launching the ‘Baltic Sentry’ mission to increase surveillance of ships crossing those cold waters.

    The UK also takes the security of the Nordic and Baltic states incredibly seriously. It’s why we were so supportive of NATO expansion for Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia – and others – in 2004. As the then UK Prime Minister – and Charles’s former boss – Tony Blair, said these invitations meant “a significant contribution to European security, and secures the place of the new Allies in the Euro-Atlantic community”.

    It’s also why we formed – with our Baltic counterparts and Nordic countries – the Joint Expeditionary Force, set up in 2018. To ensure our commitment to European security and international stability remains strong.

    It was only in November last year that we demonstrated the effectiveness of this Force with ‘Exercise Joint Protector’. More than 300 personnel were deployed to Liepāja in Latvia, and worked with staff in the UK. This – and the many other exercises the Force has undertaken – shows just how ready we and our partners are to respond to crises in the Baltic and Nordic regions.

    Keir visited British troops serving with NATO in December 2023 in Estonia.  There is an incredibly powerful image of him on that trip – standing with our brave troops.  Showing how committed he is to supporting the vital work they do, working with NATO allies to keep this continent safe.

    [Political content removed]

    The UK and Euro-Atlantic Security

    Here in the UK, we have been unequivocal about the need to bolster security across the European continent. We must look at how we safeguard each other – through our alliances; NATO, the Joint Expeditionary Force and through direct country-to-country connections too.

    We need to work better together on key issues facing our continent’s security. I mean everything – from how we improve our defence capabilities to ensuring we have the technological edge in conflict, how we finance these improvements, to how we bolster our industrial capacity across the continent. The Prime Minister will make this point on the world stage at the Joint Expeditionary Force Summit in Oslo next month, and NATO’s Hague Summit in June.

    Much of this work is underway. You may have seen His Royal Highness the Prince of Wales visit British troops in Estonia last month, who – under Operation Cabrit – are providing a deterrent to Russian aggression, bolstering NATO’s presence in Europe.

    At the centre of this is our absolute commitment to securing a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. The Prime Minister has been clear that for this plan to succeed, it must have strong US backing – and he is working closely with President Trump on this. I know other leaders – including those in the Baltics – have joined the chorus demanding that Ukraine’s voice must be at the heart of any talks.

    The importance of this cannot be overstated. Indeed, it was a point the Prime Minister made absolutely clear at the ‘Leading the Future’ Summit hosted here in the UK. There, he convened the ‘Coalition of the Willing’, building on our efforts to put pressure on Putin, keep military aid flowing to Ukraine and strengthen sanctions on the Russian war machine. This was followed by the announcement from the Defence Secretary of an additional £450m to Ukraine, which will fund hundreds of thousands of new drones, anti-tanks mines and supplies to make necessary repairs to military vehicles.

    This work is of vital importance. When Europe is under threat, then the Europeans have to – and are – stepping up on defence and security.

    We are living through a generational moment in the history of our continent. This is a point I made at a recent Baltic Breakfast event where I welcomed the further expansion of NATO to include Finland and Sweden. With both these countries, we are building on our defence and security relationship – whether it’s the strategic partnership we share with Sweden or the Memorandum of Understanding between the UK and Finland on civil nuclear, strengthening our energy security.

    The UK knows we have a responsibility to help secure the continent and that, even though we have left the EU, we would never turn our back on our allies in Europe. That’s why we have committed to reaching 2.5% of GDP on defence spending by 2027, with an ambition to achieve 3% in the next parliament. In practice, that means spending over £13 billion more on defence every year from 2027. This is the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War, and it will safeguard our collective security and fund the capabilities, technology and industrial capacity needed to keep the UK and our allies safe for generations to come.

    It has been good to see other European nations doing the same, especially across the Baltic States. Lithuania continues to set the standard within NATO. Your desire to increase defence spending to 5% or even 6% GDP is admirable. Latvia now spends 3.45% of its GDP on defence, and is investing heavily in areas, such as air and coastal defence. And Estonia is aspiring to increase defence spending to 5% of its GDP.

    Given the political context, it is of vital importance for European countries to take on responsibility for their own security. As one of Europe’s leading NATO powers, it is essential that the UK and the EU work together to strengthen European security. We have substantial shared interests and objectives and, crucially, we both have the means and influence to effect change on a global stage.

    But we cannot shy away from the reality of the situation we find ourselves in. Europe faces war on the continent, as well as an urgent need to ramp up our collective defence capabilities, and we have already seen a step-change in European cooperation.

    At the same time the UK and EU are facing global economic challenges. These are shared problems which require a collective response, with mutual interests.

    And I believe a firm alliance between the UK and the EU is undeniably a part of that – and mutually beneficial. We need to put an end to ideology and build a new strengthened partnership with Europe.

    Now, Charles, I promise not to make a point of mentioning you throughout my lecture, but I wanted to touch on something from the recent past.

    After he left Government, Charles became the Visiting Professor at the University of East Anglia for their School of Political, Social and International Studies, where – during a series of lectures – he posited the idea of the ‘Too Difficult Box’, the place where important political decisions get put when things got too complicated to solve.

    As he explained in a lecture eleven years ago at the University of South Wales – just south of my constituency of Torfaen – plenty of short-term challenges face politicians when they are trying to solve the long-term problems this country faces, which means decisions get delayed, politicians don’t feel empowered or convinced enough to act, the ‘Too Difficult Box’ fills up.

    I think everyone in this room can recognise at least one important national decision that has been left to grow dust in the ‘Too Difficult Box’.

    Which is why this Government has chosen to behave differently towards our national interests. Indeed, it is precisely the difficulty of our challenges which urges us to act. The ‘Plan for Change’ recognises the complex world we live in and redefines the way that Central Government responds to the problems of the day, to work across-Departments to tackle some of the most challenging problems we face – whether it’s breaking down the barriers to opportunity, making the UK a clean energy superpower, or building an NHS that is fit for the future.

    At the heart of all of this work are what we call our ‘Strong Foundations’, which are economic stability, secure borders and national security. To me, these priorities are inseparable; you cannot have one without the other two.

    I also believe that our relationship with the European Union has an important role in these foundations, we must find pragmatic solutions that work in the national interest.

    The kind of pragmatic approach that Charles promoted with the ‘Too Difficult Box’ is exactly the kind of approach we must take when redefining our relationship with the EU, as we move towards a strengthened partnership with our biggest trading partner.

    So far, by my count, we have seen over seventy different direct engagements between UK Ministers and their EU counterparts.

    This work was exemplified by the meeting the Prime Minister had with the President of the European Commission last October, a meeting where both agreed to put our relationship on a more solid, stable footing. They agreed to work together on some of the most pressing global challenges including economic headwinds, geopolitical competition, irregular migration, climate change and energy prices. In December, the Chancellor attended a meeting of the EU finance ministers – the first time a British Chancellor has been invited to the Eurogroup since Brexit. And I have been having regular meetings with my counterpart Maroš Šefčovič to maintain forward momentum on our shared agendas.

    However, I want to be clear: we fully respect the choice made by the British public to leave the European Union, that was clear in our manifesto.  As were the clear red lines we set out, around the Customs Union, the Single Market and Freedom of Movement.   

    We are also demonstrating our role as good faith actors through the implementation of the Trade and Co-operation Agreement and the Windsor Framework.

    But I also believe that this global moment requires us to go further. It is an opportunity to build our partnership – where our continental security is paramount, where our collective safety is guaranteed, where our respective economies flourish together. It is in our mutual self interest. 

    The Three Pillars

    I mentioned that the defining structure of our future relationship with the European Union has three important pillars – prosperity, safety and security.

    On prosperity, we must boost growth and living standards, by creating export and investment opportunities for UK business and reducing barriers to trade with our biggest trading partners.

    Already we have started work on this. We have said that we will seek to negotiate a Sanitary and Phytosanitary agreement – which is one of the clear barriers to trade across the continent, and it was particularly pleasing to see a number of UK businesses writing in last weekend’s Financial Times supporting this plan.

    Let me turn to safety. Now, of all audiences, I don’t need to explain the importance of a strong and secure border, but we must do all we can to strengthen our continental collective ability to tackle organised crime and criminality, working together on irregular migration. We see – every day – the threats across our continent from criminals with no respect for international borders.  From terrorism, to vile people smuggling gangs and drug smugglers – the threat to our communities is real. If we want to protect our respective borders and keep our citizens safe, then we need to work together.

    Already, we have made important progress on this work. Within the first few weeks of coming into power, the Prime Minister stated that border security would be at the very heart of our plans to reset our relationship with the European Union. We have committed to deepening our partnerships with Europol and its European Migrant Smuggling Centre. But I believe that we can go further in this work. We need to find ways to better coordinate law enforcement. We must do all we can to strengthen the tools available to aid our collective ability to tackle organised crime, which will only lead to more secure borders.

    We recognise that the Baltic states have faced a unique challenge when it comes to irregular migration, Russian led instrumentalisation of migration is an appalling use of human beings for political gain.

    I saw the nature of this myself on a recent visit to the Polish / Belarussian border. We absolutely condemn states instrumentalising human beings and putting them in danger, and support efforts to combat this issue at the EU’s external border. Whilst the UK may face different migration challenges, there are clear commonalities – underlining the imperative of working together on the shared priority of securing our borders.

    Which brings me on to the final point, security. I have made clear throughout this lecture that we must respond to the collective security challenge that we all face. An ambitious UK-EU security and defence relationship must be a part of this.

    All of us in the UK Government appreciate the steps that the EU is taking on this, and we welcome their recent Defence White Paper, which recognises the UK as an “essential European ally”. But we should also recognise the importance of the Baltic Sea States within that Paper.

    As Oliver Moody pointed out in his talk, the significance and the symbolism of that paper cannot be overlooked. He said: “It was presented by an Estonian high representative, a Lithuanian defence commissioner, with a great deal of input from a Latvian economics commissioner, a Polish budget commissioner, a Finnish vice-president of the commission for technological sovereignty and security, all in tandem under the leadership of a German president of the European Commission […] this would have been completely unimaginable in the 1990s.”

    He’s right to point out the importance of this unity, both in the Baltic region and across our continent. 

    We have made it clear to our EU partners that we are ready to negotiate a Security & Defence Partnership with the EU. We believe it should build on the EU’s existing partnership agreements with other third countries, while recognising the unique nature of our security relationship. It will complement NATO and our NATO First approach, while boosting our bilateral cooperation with European partners.

    But we want to go further, trying to create new ways to ramp up our defence industrial capacity, financing and capability development.

    UK-EU Summit

    All of these points I have mentioned will no doubt be crucial discussion points when the UK welcomes European Union leaders to the first UK-EU Leaders’ Summit on 19th May.

    The Prime Minister will host the President of the European Council, António Costa, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.

    The Summit will provide an opportunity to make further progress on our shared priorities and we shall set out further details in due course. What I can tell you now is that this will be the first of regular UK-EU summits, which we committed to when the Prime Minister met the President of the European Commission in October last year. We expect these to take place annually, in addition to regular engagements at Ministerial level, recognising that new agreements will take time to agree.

    Conclusion

    Ladies and gentlemen, it is clear to me that the future of Europe – whether that’s innovative businesses or the most resilient of responses to Russian aggression – has a home in the Baltic.

    The UK wants to be an important part of that future, and we are working hard – right across the Government – to change our relationship with the EU for the mutual benefit of all European states.

    We are living through a time of generational challenge to our very way of life.  I know that in the face of this, an alliance – across our continent, in pursuit of freedom – will be vital.

    So, I thank all of you here for your interest in this vital area, I thank Charles for the invitation to address this group – and I look forward to working with many of you to deliver a secure and prosperous future for our people.

    Updates to this page

    Published 25 April 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI USA: ICYMI—Hagerty Joins Kudlow on Fox Business to Discuss Russia-Ukraine War, Tariff Negotiations

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Tennessee Bill Hagerty
    NASHVILLE, TN—United States Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN), a member of the Senate Appropriations, Banking, and Foreign Relations Committees and former U.S. Ambassador to Japan, today joined Kudlow on Fox Business to discuss the ongoing negotiations to bring a peace deal to the Russia-Ukraine war, along with President Donald Trump’s strength in tariff negotiations with China.

    *Click the photo above or here to watch*
    Partial Transcript
    Hagerty on Trump’s toughness against Russia: “President Trump has continued not only to retain sanctions in place, but actually enforced them, which the Biden Administration never did. The Biden Administration talked tough, but they did not enforce sanctions. What President Trump has done is actually gone into secondary sanctions. I think you read about the fact that President Trump has gone in and sanctioned a Chinese refinery, the buyer of Russian crude [oil]. That is the way to deal with this. That’s the way to put maximum pressure on Russia, their banks, the purchasers of crude oil. That’s the way to deal with this. He’s doing it. The pressure has been maintained and mounting on Vladimir Putin.”
    Hagerty on weakening Russia by regaining U.S. energy independence: “You’re absolutely right, Dave. And President Trump’s been extremely clear about not only wanting to get back to energy independence, but energy dominance for America. That’s bad for Russia, that’s bad for Iran, that’s bad for Venezuela, but it’s great for our allies and for us.”
    Hagerty on the need to end the Russia-Ukraine war: “I think about the fact that [Treasury Secretary] Scott Bessent traveled to Ukraine to put in place a deal for critical minerals that would’ve engaged our economy with theirs. Zelenskyy said, of course I’ll sign it, but I’d like to wait [until] I get to meet with Vice President [JD] Vance in Munich. He goes to Munich—Vice President Vance is courteous enough to meet with him—and he tells Vice President Vance, I’d like to actually sign it with the president at the White House. We accede to that. We let him come to the White House, and what does he do? He tries to re-trade the deal on international TV in front of everybody. I think it really is amazing. I think how congenial President Trump has been in dealing with both of these parties. He wants to bring this to an end, and I’d like to say this: Dave, every week this waits, we’re losing roughly another 5,000 lives. It’s time for both parties, Russia and Ukraine, to get to the table and bring this to an end […] I don’t know the answer in terms of who’s advising Zelenskyy, and I would say this: had it been [Former President] Joe Biden in that Oval office, in that meeting, it would’ve worked, but it certainly is not going to work with President Trump. He wasn’t going to tolerate that sort of behavior. He wasn’t so hungry for a deal to be celebrating it in the Rose Garden. He sent Zelenskyy home, and he should have.”
    Hagerty on Trump’s strength against Iran’s terror regime: “Well, Dave, I’ll remind you that everyone said that the Abraham Accords couldn’t be done, but President Trump was able to deliver on that. If anybody can deliver peace in the Middle East, it’s Donald Trump. I think the Iranians should understand and appreciate the fact that President Trump is not going to take this anymore. It’s going to be maximum pressure. They are the greatest state sponsors of terror, not only in the region, but in the world. They’re in a very difficult place right now. You mentioned, Dave, oil prices are coming down. That’s not good for Iran, right? We started enforcing sanctions, rather than just talking about it the way the Biden Administration said, that’s not good for Iran. Their economy’s in a tough spot right now. Now is the time to negotiate. Now is the time to end this program of terror, to end their nuclear program, and bring peace back to the Middle East.”
    Hagerty on the tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China: “[China tends] to overplay their hand, whether it’s their use of the Belt and Road Initiative, or whether it’s the situation they find themselves in now, again, retaliating against President Trump when he warned them not to, and find themselves in an extraordinarily difficult box. China has a very export dependent economy. They’ve also not played by the same rules that every other major economy does. They steal intellectual property. They subsidize industries. They need to come to the table now and look to actually make a deal […] I worked very closely with the team that negotiated the phase one deal in the first Administration, because they worked with me on the two trade deals that we did with Japan. They committed, at that point, to $200 billion worth of purchases from America. They fell short. China needs to keep its word; China needs to step up. If you think about what happened during the Covid crisis, if you think about the spy balloon that flew across America, there’s a real issue of trust right now. That issue needs to be resolved. China needs to prove that it’s a reliable partner.”

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Banking: Press Briefing Transcript: Middle East and Central Asia Department, Spring Meetings 2025

    Source: International Monetary Fund

    April 24, 2025

    Speaker: Mr.Jihad Azour, Director of Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF

    Moderator: Ms. Angham Al Shami, Communications Officer, IMF

    MS. AL SHAMI: Good morning. Thank you for joining us in this press briefing on the Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia. My name is Angham Al Shami, from the Communications Department here at the IMF. 

    If you’re joining us online, we do have Arabic and French interpretations that you can access on the IMF Regional Economic Outlook webpage and the IMF Press Center as well.  And for those of you in the room, you also have equipment to access that. 

    Today I’m joined by Jihad Azour, the Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department, who will give us an overview of the outlook of the region, and then we will open the floor for your questions. With that, over to you, Jihad.

    MR. AZOUR: Thank you very much, Angham. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the IMF 2025 Spring Meetings. Before answering your questions, I will briefly outline the economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa as well as the Caucasus and Central Asia.  Let me first start with a few words on the recent developments.

    The global economy stands at a delicate crossroads.  The global recovery of recent years faces new risks as governments reorder their policy priorities.  The recent escalation in trade tensions has already damaged global growth prospects while triggering intense financial volatility.  More broadly, the extraordinary increase in global uncertainty associated with trade policy and increased geopolitical fragmentation will continue to erode confidence for quite some time and represents a serious downside risk to global growth.

    For MENA and CCA economies, these developments are adding to existing regional source of uncertainty, including ongoing conflicts, pockets of political instability and climate vulnerability.  We continue to assess the impact of recently announced U.S. tariffs on MENA and CCA economies.  While the direct effects are expected to be modest, giving limited trade exposure and exemptions for energy products, the indirect effects could be more pronounced.  Slower growth will weaken external demand and remittances, while tighter financial conditions may challenge countries with elevated public debts.  Oil exporting economies could also see fiscal and external positions deteriorate due to the lower oil prices.  Some countries may benefit from trade diversion, but such gains could be short lived in a broader environment of trade contraction. 

    Let me now turn to the Middle East and North Africa.  Last year was particularly challenging for the region.  Conflict caused severe human and economic costs.  Regional growth in 2024 reached 1.8 percent, a downgrade revision of 0.2 percentage point from the October World Economic Outlook forecast.  Conflicts weigh on growth in some oil importing countries and extended OPEC+ voluntary production cuts continue to dampen activity in oil exporting economies.  For GCC countries, strong non-oil growth and diversification efforts were largely offset by oil production cuts. 

    Despite these challenges and high uncertainty, growth is projected to pick up in 2025 and 2026, assuming oil output rebounds, conflict related impacts stabilize, progress is made on structural reform and implementation.  However, expectations have been revised down compared to the October 2024 Regional Economic Outlook, reflecting weaker global growth and more modest effect of these drivers.  We now project growth at 2.6 percent in 2025 and 3.4 percent in 2026, a downward revision of 1.3 and 1 percentage points, respectively.  Inflation is projected to continue declining across MENA economies, remaining elevated only in few cases. 

    Let me now turn to the outlook for the Caucuses and Central Asia.  In contrast, economic activity in the CCA exceeded expectations in 2024, growing by 5.4 percent, driven by spillover effects from the war in Ukraine, which boosted domestic demand.  However, as these temporary effects normalize over the next few years, growth is expected to moderate due to weaker external demand, plateauing growth of hydrocarbon production, and reduced fiscal stimulus.  Despite the moderation in overall growth, inflation is expected to increase somewhat across the region and remain elevated in a few cases, reflecting still strong domestic demand. 

    Let me now turn to the risks to the outlook.  These projections are subject to extraordinary uncertainty and the risks to the baseline forecast remain tilted to the downside.  Four key risks stand out.  First, trade tension as a further escalation could dampen global demand, delay in oil production recovery, and tighten financial conditions.  Our analysis shows that persistence spikes in uncertainty triggered by global shocks are associated with large output losses both in MENA and CCA.  The second risk is geopolitical conflict.  The third one is climate shocks.  And the last one is the reduction in official development assistance.  This could further exacerbate food insecurity and humanitarian conditions in low-income and conflict-affected economies.  However, upside risks also exist.  The swift resolution of conflict and accelerated implementation of structural reforms could substantially improve regional growth prospects.  The implications of a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine for the CCA region also remain uncertain. 

    Now the question is what are the policies that we recommend for countries and how they should prioritize them.  In the face of extraordinary uncertainty, MENA and CCA economies should respond along two key dimensions, manage short term instability, and use the opportunity to advance structural reforms for long-term growth.  The first priority is adapt to the new environment.  Countries must take steps to shield their economies from the impact of worst-case scenarios and prioritize safeguarding macroeconomic and financial stability.  The appropriate policy response will vary depending on each country’s initial conditions and vulnerability to risk. 

    Turning to more the long-term, countries should transform their economies.  Recent developments underscore the urgent need to accelerate the long-discussed structural reforms agenda across the region.  To reduce vulnerabilities to shocks and seize opportunities arising from the evolving global trade and financial landscape, it is essential to enhance governance, invest in human capital, advance digitalization, and foster a dynamic private sector.  Establishing strategic trade and investment corridors with other regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, as well as within the region, including between GCC and Central Asia or GCC and North Africa, can help mitigate exposure to external uncertainty, enable greater risk sharing, and drive sustainable economic development. 

    We will delve into these policy priorities at the launch of our Regional Economic Outlook in Dubai next week and in Samarkand, in Uzbekistan, where on May 3 we are organizing jointly with the Uzbek government a GCC-CCA Economic Conference where Ministers of Finance and Governors of Central Banks from both regions, as well as representatives of IFIs and private sectors, will discuss deepening economic ties between these two regions.  We also invite you to join us tomorrow at 2:30 p.m. at the Atrium for a public panel discussion on the economic consequences of the high uncertainty in the MENA and CCA regions. 

    Before I open the floor to questions, I want to underscore the IMF’s deep commitment to supporting countries throughout the region with policy advice, technical assistance, and, in many cases, financial support.  Since early 2020, we have approved almost $50 billion in financing to countries across the MENA region, Pakistan, and the CCA, of which 14.8 have been approved since early 2024. 

    In closing, I want to highlight our engagement to post-conflict economies.  Strengthening economic fundamentals and rebuilding institutions will be essential to successful recovery.  The IMF, in coordination with the World Bank and regional partners, has established an informal coordination group to support recovery in conflict-affected states in the Middle East.  Our focus will be on capacity building, policy guidance, and financial assistance.  We are also working closely with authorities to help stabilize their economies, restore confidence, and lay foundations for sustainable growth. 

    Again, thank you very much for joining us this morning, and now I would like to welcome your questions.               

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you very much, Jihad, and now we will take your questions. And let’s start with the gentleman here in the first row, please.

    QUESTIONER: Thank you, Angham and Jihad.  I’m Amir Goumaa from Asharq Bloomberg.  IMF raised the gross forecasting for Egypt dispIte the regional downgrade.  Why is that?  And how can the MENA region turn the country trade disputes into opportunities? 

    MR. AZOUR: Excuse me?

    QUESTIONER: How can the MENA region turn the current trade disputes and tariffs into opportunities?  Like how can they make the best use of it? 

    MR. AZOUR: Thank you very much for your question.

    MS. AL SHAMI: Should we take more questions on Egypt? Perhaps should we take more questions on Egypt. We’ll start with this gentleman and then the gentleman in the back.  This one first. 

    QUESTIONER: Hello everyone.  My name is Ahmad Yaqub.  I’m the managing editor of Al Youm Al-Sabah Egyptian Newspaper.  I have two questions about Egypt.  The first one is about the expected exchange rate of the Egyptian pound against the U.S. dollar by the end of 2026, the next year, and the expected inflation rate and the economic growth rate of Egypt.  The second question is the next trench of the program, current program with the Egyptian authorities.  What is the timing of the next trench and the total amount of it?  Thank you so much. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: And then the gentleman here.

    QUESTIONER: Ramy Gabr from Al-Qahera News.  The global economic outlook carries good news.  Maybe for Egypt in terms of the economic growth in 2025.  How do you see that and what’s the facts and numbers led to this outlook?  Thank you. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Over to you.

    MR. AZOUR: Thank you very much. Yes, please.

    QUESTIONER: I’m Lauren Holtmeier from S&P Global.  I wanted to ask about the fiscal break-even prices for oil production, specifically for the countries with high fiscal break-even prices like Saudi Arabia and Iraq.  And how will the lowered expectations for oil prices over the next couple of years affect their ability and their economic outlook?  And I recognize that the answer for those two countries might be very different. 

    MR. AZOUR: Thank you very much. I had three sets of questions. One on trade and the impact of the recent trade developments on the region and how those could be turned into an opportunity.  The second set of questions were on Egypt, and the third one was on the GCC and the oil market.  Let me start with the first one. 

    Countries of the region have limited trade dependence on the U.S., and therefore the recent trade and tariff decisions will have limited direct impact on those economies.  Yet it’s important also to highlight that there would be indirect impact.  And also those indirect impact may take different channels.  One impact is the impact that this could have on financial stability and capital flows.  We saw widening of spreads over the last few years, which is an issue that could affect the capacity of emerging economies and middle-income countries who have high levels of debt.  The second potential impact is impact on oil market.  We saw some softening in the oil price, as well as the forwards of oil price are showing a certain extension of those softening over the year.  And the third type of effect is the second-round impact due to trade diversion. 

    I will maybe go into more details about what are the policies that we recommend for countries to address those challenges.  Few countries have more exposure to the U.S. trade like Pakistan or Jordan, and those are specific cases.  I can address those.  Opportunities, of course, in any change there are opportunities, and over the last few years we saw successive shocks and transformation on the geopolitical front and the geoeconomic front, and those have affected the region.  The region stands at the crossroads between East and West, and therefore trade routes, connectivity, as well as also opportunities go through this region.  This would require, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, for countries in the region to seek new opportunities in terms of strengthening their economic relationships and trade ties with regions close to them, as well as also within countries in the region, which will call for new way of increasing connectivity and cooperation in the region. 

    The second set of questions is on Egypt.  Over the last year, growth in Egypt has improved, and we expect growth for the fiscal year 2025 to reach 3.8 percent.  For comparison, in 2024 it was 2.4 percent, and we expect that the growth will keep improving in 2026 and reach 4.3 percent.  Also, inflation went down from 33 percent on average for fiscal year 2024 to 19.7 percent in 2025, and we expect it to reach 12 percent in 2026, despite the various shocks.  Those positive developments reflect the implementation of the reform program that was supported by the IMF and was augmented back in March last year in order also to help Egypt address some of the external shocks, in particular the decline in revenues from the Suez Canal. 

    As you remember, the program is based on four pillars.  One, macroeconomic stability by addressing inflation that constitutes the main issue for economic stability through tightening the monetary policy.  The second is to address the debt issue by improving the primary surplus and also through an active debt management strategy and strengthening debt management organization to reduce gradually the debt and the weight of the debt through the debt service on the economy.  The third important pillar is to preserve the economy from external shocks, and this is the role of the flexibility in the exchange rate.  Flexibility in the exchange rate in a time of high level of uncertainty plays an important way to protect the Egyptian economy from external shocks, and its flexibility has proven to be beneficial to the stability of the Egyptian economy.  The fourth pillar is growing the economy and give a bigger weight to the private sector, and we encourage the authorities to strengthen and accelerate the reinvestment strategy that would allow more investment to come to the Egyptian economy, would give more space to the private sector, and will help the Egyptian economy and the Egyptian people get better opportunities in a time where those international changes would require an acceleration of economic transformation.  The review has been completed in March, and as you know, we had also another facility that was provided to Egypt to help Egypt deal with climate issues, and our engagement with the authorities remain very active.  Shall I move to GCC? 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Yes.

    MR. AZOUR: The next trench will be with the next review. On the GCC, well, of course the direct impact of the trade shock on the region has been limited except that with the prospect of the decline in oil price, it comes at a time where we see a resumption of increase of oil production with the implementation of what has been agreed, though at a slower pace, of the December decision of the OPEC+ agreement.

    As you know, countries of the GCC have different fundamentals and different level of buffers, and therefore there is no one break-even point for all countries.  Our estimates are showing, though, that a decline in oil price of $10 would weaken the fiscal situation by somewhat between 2.3 to 2.7 percent of GDP, and it also, it has similar impact on the external account between 2.5 to 2.7 percent of GDP. 

    I would like to highlight two additional points that some countries have used the opportunity of their diversification strategy to both reduce their dependence on oil as a source of income, but also to diversify fiscally and reduce the impact of oil revenues, which we encourage other countries to follow suit. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you, Jihad. So we’ll take another round of questions from the room, and then we will turn to online. The lady in the first row, please. 

    QUESTIONER: Dr. Jihad, thank you for taking my question.  Nour Amache from Asharq Bloomberg.  I wanted to ask about Lebanon and Syria and to follow up on what my colleagues here asked about Egypt.  They were asking about the next review, if it’s in June, and the next tranche in June, if we can elaborate on that.  Now, regarding Lebanon, today the parliament passed the law of lifting bank secrecy.  Will this make or will this make the program with the IMF faster?  Will this increase the prospects of a program with Lebanon anytime soon, especially since I know the Lebanese authorities represented by the Finance Minister, the Economy Minister, and the Central Bank Governor are all here in Washington, and a lot of meetings have been undergoing?  That’s regarding Lebanon.  And regarding Syria, also a big Syrian delegation is here.  What has been reached so far with the Syrian counterparts?  Thank you. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you. One more question. Maybe we’ll go to the gentleman in the front here. 

    QUESTIONER: Thank you.  Mohammad Al-Lubani from Jordan Al-Mamlaka TV.  I’d like to ask in Arabic.  In light of our dependence on American exports, [ESQUAH] said that 25 percent of the exports go to the United States.  How would the tariffs affect Jordan, and are there any estimates of these losses by the Fund?  And what are the recommendations of the Fund in order to face these challenges? 

    MR. AZOUR: The discussions are, you know, continuing, and the engagement with the authorities is taking place during the Spring Meetings. As I mentioned earlier, we look forward to the next review to see an acceleration of the divestment strategy that is one of the key priorities because of its critical impact on sustaining growth in Egypt, providing opportunities to the private sector, and also helping in the effort that Egypt is pursuing in reducing the debt. In the context of high interest rate, it’s very important to address debt service issue, and this would be accelerated by reducing the debt.  Therefore, we look forward to see progress on the authorities’ plan in terms of divestment.

    On Lebanon, the Fund has been supportive of Lebanon, and a staff-level agreement has been reached in 2022.  Lebanon staff, Lebanon team, is and remained actively engaged with the authorities, providing technical assistance.  And recently, we had two staff visits to Lebanon and the authorities have engaged with our team in order to reactivate a potential program.  They have expressed their interest for that.  The Lebanese economic and financial situation has been made

    more challenging with the recent implications of the war and the massive destruction that in addition to the need to address the financial and economic situation, Lebanon is also facing the need to deal with the reconstruction. 

    The pillars of the program will remain valid as they were negotiated.  Macroeconomic stability, based on addressing the legacy of the financial sector.  The legacy of debt, address the debt issue.  Second pillar is to deal with the macroeconomic stability through fiscal consolidation.  Third pillar is to strengthen governance by reforming SOEs and also increasing and improving the confidence factor.  And third is to address social issues, especially now with issues related to the reconstructions.  Discussions are taking place and staff is on active dialogue with the Lebanese authorities. 

    We are in discussion and therefore I think the discussions that we are having during the Spring Meetings are giving the opportunity for us to understand what are the reform priorities of the Lebanese government.  As you know, staff had a couple of visits in the last few weeks, and we will keep our active engagement with the Lebanese authorities.

    On Syria.  Of course, Syria has been absent for the last 15 years due to the war, and their engagement with the institution has been fairly limited since 2011.  The last Article IV consultation with Syria took place in 2009.  The international community and the regional community has been actively engaged in order to see how we could help Syria recover from a long period of war. 

    We had a preparatory meeting preparatory meeting in AlUla back in February where regional institutions and the international community have agreed to have another follow-up coordination meeting that took place last Tuesday where representatives from international institutions, bilaterals, have convened in order to assess the needs of Syria and also to develop a framework of coordination.  The Fund is engaged to support the international community in its engagement with Syria.  We have already started our assessment of the macroeconomic situation, the institutional capacity, and we look forward to continue our engagement with the Syrian authorities. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Then you have one more question on Jordan.

    MR. AZOUR: Yes, Jordan. In Arabic?  Okay.  Jordan is one of the countries that have been affected by the tariffs, but this is still limited because of the kind of exports or the relationship between Jordan and the United States.  And Jordan managed to overcome, in the recent years, to overcome several shocks, including shocks related to the variability and volatility and the effect of the Gaza issues on the economy of Jordan.  And the latest reviews emphasized the need for Jordan to keep stability and also, despite the external shocks, to take the needed measures in order to improve the macroeconomic situation and to reinforce the economy.  And there has been discussions about supporting Jordan through a new mechanism, the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, in order to help Jordan in the measures that would help it improve adaptation with the climate change and other shocks and other pandemics.  There is actually progress in this regard.  And there will be a review next month by the Executive Board of the Fund about Jordan. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: We’ll turn to Dania, who’s on Webex online. Dania, please go ahead. 

    QUESTIONER: Hello, can you hear me? 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Yes, you can hear you.

    QUESTIONER: Hi.  Hello Dr. Jihad, I just have a follow-up question on the break-even oil prices for the Gulf.  In the October report, countries like Saudi Arabia had a very high break-even price of around 90.  I think it was the second biggest highest in the GCC after Bahrain.  I just wanted to see, this figure is likely to increase given the high expenditures, the lower oil prices.  How will the lower oil prices — you mentioned about the impact on GDP, but the prices, I think, since the beginning of the year have dropped by more than $10.00.  So, the impact has it been considered in the Regional Economic Report?  And especially because I don’t know the report, did it include the impact of the tariffs and the impact of the increase in OPEC production from May, which is accelerated?  And just one clarification, with regards to Saudi break-even, some analysts include the expenditure of the Public Investment Fund.  Is that part of the IMF estimates for the break-even?  What’s included in the break-even?  Thank you very much. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you. Any additional questions on GCC? Okay, let’s take the gentleman in the middle. 

    QUESTIONER: Hello Mr. Azour, Madame Al Shami, thank you for the opportunity.  Philippe Hage Boutros from L’Orient-Le Jour, Lebanon.  How does the IMF assess the potential impact of declining oil revenues stemming from a possible drop in prices amid the tariff crisis on the capacity and willingness of the Gulf countries to fund international aid, particularly for countries like Lebanon and Syria that urgently need reconstruction financing?  Does it anticipate a significant or relatively limited effect?  Thank you. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you. And we had one more question on Saudi that we received online. In light of the global trade repercussions, what is the effect on the Saudi market, especially on inflation and growth?  This question comes from Mohammed Al Sulami from Al Akhbariyah in Saudi Arabia. 

    MR. AZOUR: Let me start with Dania’s question. Dania, let me start by saying that over the last few years from a fiscal perspective, Saudi has made a significant improvement through various reforms in order to diversify revenues outside oil and also reduce certain expenditures, including on the subsidy side. And this effort to diversify revenues has led to an increase of non-oil revenues in the GDP for Saudi.  Of course, the last couple of years have been beneficial in terms of providing Saudi and other GCC countries with surplus in the fiscal as well as also in the current account, which have led to increase in buffers.  Of course, still the oil sector represent an important source of revenue and it’s still also an important source of foreign currencies. 

    Coming to the fiscal strategy, Saudi has established a medium-term fiscal framework that anchors policies and also help them deal with the volatility in oil price and become less pro cyclicals.  Of course, the increase in oil price, sorry, the decline in oil price will have impact on the fiscal and will lead to a potential additional drop in fiscal situation. 

    As I mentioned earlier, a decline of $10.00 per barrel or a decline of $1 million of production will have an impact on the fiscal between 2 to 3 percent.  The decline in oil price is accompanied with a recovery in oil production and Saudi was one of the largest, I would say, contributor to the voluntary drop in oil export. 

    When it comes to the link between fiscal and the investment strategy, the investment strategy has been also put in the medium-term framework in the context of the Vision 2030 and regularly there are updates, recalibration and also phasing, based on the capacity to implement and the priorities.

    In our projections, although developments were taking place almost at the time when we were releasing our outlook, we took into consideration the new assumptions on the oil price for this year as well as also on the growth projections. 

    The second question related to Saudi.  The impact of the latest developments on the Saudi economy.  Undoubtedly, the trade relations regarding the non-oil sector is limited with the United States and therefore the impact will also be limited on trade related to tariffs, especially as oil and gas are exempt from the increase in tariffs.  But there will be an indirect impact, as we’ve said.  Saudi Arabia also has a dollarized economy, whether on the side of exports or imports, and therefore the impact will be limited. 

    On the other hand, the reduction or the depreciation of the dollar will affect services, especially tourism.  And this is a sector that Saudi Arabia is trying to develop by establishing new expansion for tourism in Saudi Arabia.

    The other related question on support to the reconstruction in the region.  Let me first say two things.  One, ODA has declined over the last few years, and more recently with the decisions to stop some of the international assistance by USAID and others.  This will have an important impact, especially on countries in fragility who depend heavily on aid.  Countries like Somalia, Sudan, countries like Yemen.  And this represents a risk not only on the fiscal side, but also on the humanitarian side on food security.  This is the first point. 

    The second point is the region is, we’re talking here about the Levant, is going through an important prospect of post-conflict recovery.  Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, and hopefully, Yemen, and Sudan.  This would require strong international and financial assistance.  Of course, this also would require to accelerate certain number of reforms that will allow the private sector to provide financing.  Those countries have strong diasporas, and the recovery could also be co-led by international assistance, also by private sector support.  And some of the reforms, be it in Lebanon or in Syria, are very important to regain confidence and will allow private sector to play its key role in recovering those economies. 

    The region has been very supportive.  And when we look at the official assistance and the interest that is being shown by several countries in the region, be it in the recent meeting that took place in Saudi Arabia, in Al Ula, where ministers of finance from the GCC and regional institutions convened in order to explore opportunities to provide more assistance to those countries. 

    Again, I think it’s very important also to highlight that assistance has to accompany reform programs that will lay the ground to strong institutions will provide confidence for both citizens and also international, private and public community, in order to accelerate the recovery. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you, Jihad. We’ll take one more round of questions.  The lady on the second row here, please. 

    QUESTIONER:  Hello, I’m Mariam Ali from Dawn News Pakistan.  My question is how will the global tariff war uniquely impact Pakistan?  Any need of buffers in place to mitigate risks to the country?  Thank you. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you. Let’s take maybe one more question. The gentleman here sitting in the front. 

    QUESTIONER: Thank you, , Director Azour.  My question is on Yemen.  Igor Naimushin, RIA News Agency, D.C. Bureau.  So, last week U.S. struck Ras Isa fuel part in Yemen.  I would like to ask you to outline what repercussions this strike will have on energy security and economic situation in Yemen and broadly in region?  And if you could, provide any details how the IMF — what is the IMF view on longer-term risks for the region as U.S. operation on Yemen continues to unfold?  Thank you. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you. We’ll take one more question from the gentleman here in the –.

    QUESTIONER: Hi, my name is Magnus Sherman.  I wanted to return to Lebanon.  The new Prime Minister has pledged to not touch the hard currency deposits.  Does the IMF support that position? 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you. And we have an online question from Camille Faris Abu Rafael. How can low- and middle-income countries in MENA balance urgent social needs with long-term fiscal sustainability amid rising debt and global uncertainty and persistently high interest rates?  We’ll take these questions, and we’ll take another round.  Thank you. 

    MR. AZOUR: On Pakistan. Pakistan made significant progress in restoring macroeconomic stability over the last 18 months and the numbers are, for Pakistan, are showing improvement both in terms of growth as well as also in inflation that dropped from 12.6 percent last year in 2024 fiscal year to 6.5 percent this year, expected to stay at this level for next year.  Debt is also stabilizing in the case of Pakistan, and recently Pakistan has been upgraded by rating agencies. 

    Of course, trade tensions will affect relatively Pakistan maybe more than the average in the region.  But I would say the impact on Pakistan directly can be offset by other measures that would allow the Pakistani economy to reposition itself in a world that is in the midst of one of the largest transformation in terms of trade, economic opportunities, and to reposition itself in order to address any risks, but also to potentially benefit from change in the trade routes. 

    The question on Yemen the situation on Yemen is extremely preoccupying at the humanitarian level, both in terms of food security as well as also in terms of human suffering.  And this situation has been inflicting heavy toll on the Yemeni people for a long period of time.  Of course, broadly speaking, instability has been one of the main issues that the region is dealing with.  Instability is one of the key sources of uncertainty for the region.  Addressing this instability is key in providing security for people to improve their living conditions, providing stability for the trade routes, and also provide opportunities for people to rebuild and reconstruct.  The Fund is engaged to (A) keep a very strong contacts with Yemen, provide technical assistance at a time where we cannot provide because of the security situation, financial assistance.  Therefore, we are actively supporting through technical assistance.  And we are also in regular engagement with the authorities. 

    Our next plan is to reengage through Article IV in order to assess the economic situation in Yemen, help the internationally recognized government assess the overall debt situation and the debt liabilities in order, later on, to help Yemen deal with the debt situation, and provide right assessment for the donor community to provide assistance. 

    Political stabilization security is very important to preserve human and social conditions, and the Fund stands ready to help Yemen as well as also other countries facing fragility and conflicts in the region.  And this is something that we are increasing our resources to provide support to those countries. 

    Lebanon.  Lebanon problems are complex in terms of how to address the overall financial challenge.  The solution has to deal through a comprehensive approach with all the financial issues that Lebanon is facing.  A piecemeal approach is not what Lebanon needs today.  A reform package that restores confidence, addresses the legacy of the past, provides opportunities for the economy to recover, by also promoting the capacity of the financial system to finance the recovery, mobilize international assistance to help Lebanon dealing with the reconstruction needs, and also support the reforms are priorities that our team is currently discussing with the Lebanese authorities. 

    The question related to balancing short-term and medium-term.  I think it’s a very important question.  We live currently in a world of high uncertainty and in our outlook this spring we have — and I would encourage you to read it,  it’s very interesting piece — we have tried to assess the impact of uncertainty on the region and the uncertainty is of multiple layers.  A global uncertainty, regional, geopolitical and conflict situation, but also internal or local uncertainties.  Those are important issues for countries to address. 

    In very brief, countries need to in the short term to preserve stability and that would require to increase their buffers.  And for those who have limited buffers to accelerate fiscal consolidations to reduce the risk, address some of their financing issues, especially countries who have high level of debt and for those who have buffers, preserve those and use them when they need.  But I think what is really important, especially given the lasting negative impact of uncertainties on countries, is to address the medium-term issues.  And addressing the medium-term issues will help unlock growth, accelerating structural reforms, improving economic conditions, provide stronger social protection framework by moving from untargeted subsidies to something that is more meaningful in terms of social support would be extremely beneficial for countries in the region. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you very much, Jihad and I’m afraid we have run out of time. Thank you all for participating with us today and as always, we will be posting the transcript online.  But just a reminder that we will be launching our report next week on May 1 so stay tuned for that.  And as Jihad mentioned, please join us tomorrow at 2:30 for the seminar on how countries can navigate uncertainties.  Jihad, any last words? 

    MR. AZOUR: Only to say thank you. And thanks to our friends here, the journalists. We look forward to provide you with more details in Dubai next week with all the details, as well as also country-specific information on our Regional Economic Outlook.  And two days after that, in Samarkand, in Uzbekistan, on the outlook for Caucasus and Central Asia.  Thank you very much. 

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Angham Al Shami

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    MIL OSI Global Banks

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Press Briefing Transcript: Middle East and Central Asia Department, Spring Meetings 2025

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    April 24, 2025

    Speaker: Mr.Jihad Azour, Director of Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF

    Moderator: Ms. Angham Al Shami, Communications Officer, IMF

    MS. AL SHAMI: Good morning. Thank you for joining us in this press briefing on the Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia. My name is Angham Al Shami, from the Communications Department here at the IMF. 

    If you’re joining us online, we do have Arabic and French interpretations that you can access on the IMF Regional Economic Outlook webpage and the IMF Press Center as well.  And for those of you in the room, you also have equipment to access that. 

    Today I’m joined by Jihad Azour, the Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department, who will give us an overview of the outlook of the region, and then we will open the floor for your questions. With that, over to you, Jihad.

    MR. AZOUR: Thank you very much, Angham. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the IMF 2025 Spring Meetings. Before answering your questions, I will briefly outline the economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa as well as the Caucasus and Central Asia.  Let me first start with a few words on the recent developments.

    The global economy stands at a delicate crossroads.  The global recovery of recent years faces new risks as governments reorder their policy priorities.  The recent escalation in trade tensions has already damaged global growth prospects while triggering intense financial volatility.  More broadly, the extraordinary increase in global uncertainty associated with trade policy and increased geopolitical fragmentation will continue to erode confidence for quite some time and represents a serious downside risk to global growth.

    For MENA and CCA economies, these developments are adding to existing regional source of uncertainty, including ongoing conflicts, pockets of political instability and climate vulnerability.  We continue to assess the impact of recently announced U.S. tariffs on MENA and CCA economies.  While the direct effects are expected to be modest, giving limited trade exposure and exemptions for energy products, the indirect effects could be more pronounced.  Slower growth will weaken external demand and remittances, while tighter financial conditions may challenge countries with elevated public debts.  Oil exporting economies could also see fiscal and external positions deteriorate due to the lower oil prices.  Some countries may benefit from trade diversion, but such gains could be short lived in a broader environment of trade contraction. 

    Let me now turn to the Middle East and North Africa.  Last year was particularly challenging for the region.  Conflict caused severe human and economic costs.  Regional growth in 2024 reached 1.8 percent, a downgrade revision of 0.2 percentage point from the October World Economic Outlook forecast.  Conflicts weigh on growth in some oil importing countries and extended OPEC+ voluntary production cuts continue to dampen activity in oil exporting economies.  For GCC countries, strong non-oil growth and diversification efforts were largely offset by oil production cuts. 

    Despite these challenges and high uncertainty, growth is projected to pick up in 2025 and 2026, assuming oil output rebounds, conflict related impacts stabilize, progress is made on structural reform and implementation.  However, expectations have been revised down compared to the October 2024 Regional Economic Outlook, reflecting weaker global growth and more modest effect of these drivers.  We now project growth at 2.6 percent in 2025 and 3.4 percent in 2026, a downward revision of 1.3 and 1 percentage points, respectively.  Inflation is projected to continue declining across MENA economies, remaining elevated only in few cases. 

    Let me now turn to the outlook for the Caucuses and Central Asia.  In contrast, economic activity in the CCA exceeded expectations in 2024, growing by 5.4 percent, driven by spillover effects from the war in Ukraine, which boosted domestic demand.  However, as these temporary effects normalize over the next few years, growth is expected to moderate due to weaker external demand, plateauing growth of hydrocarbon production, and reduced fiscal stimulus.  Despite the moderation in overall growth, inflation is expected to increase somewhat across the region and remain elevated in a few cases, reflecting still strong domestic demand. 

    Let me now turn to the risks to the outlook.  These projections are subject to extraordinary uncertainty and the risks to the baseline forecast remain tilted to the downside.  Four key risks stand out.  First, trade tension as a further escalation could dampen global demand, delay in oil production recovery, and tighten financial conditions.  Our analysis shows that persistence spikes in uncertainty triggered by global shocks are associated with large output losses both in MENA and CCA.  The second risk is geopolitical conflict.  The third one is climate shocks.  And the last one is the reduction in official development assistance.  This could further exacerbate food insecurity and humanitarian conditions in low-income and conflict-affected economies.  However, upside risks also exist.  The swift resolution of conflict and accelerated implementation of structural reforms could substantially improve regional growth prospects.  The implications of a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine for the CCA region also remain uncertain. 

    Now the question is what are the policies that we recommend for countries and how they should prioritize them.  In the face of extraordinary uncertainty, MENA and CCA economies should respond along two key dimensions, manage short term instability, and use the opportunity to advance structural reforms for long-term growth.  The first priority is adapt to the new environment.  Countries must take steps to shield their economies from the impact of worst-case scenarios and prioritize safeguarding macroeconomic and financial stability.  The appropriate policy response will vary depending on each country’s initial conditions and vulnerability to risk. 

    Turning to more the long-term, countries should transform their economies.  Recent developments underscore the urgent need to accelerate the long-discussed structural reforms agenda across the region.  To reduce vulnerabilities to shocks and seize opportunities arising from the evolving global trade and financial landscape, it is essential to enhance governance, invest in human capital, advance digitalization, and foster a dynamic private sector.  Establishing strategic trade and investment corridors with other regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, as well as within the region, including between GCC and Central Asia or GCC and North Africa, can help mitigate exposure to external uncertainty, enable greater risk sharing, and drive sustainable economic development. 

    We will delve into these policy priorities at the launch of our Regional Economic Outlook in Dubai next week and in Samarkand, in Uzbekistan, where on May 3 we are organizing jointly with the Uzbek government a GCC-CCA Economic Conference where Ministers of Finance and Governors of Central Banks from both regions, as well as representatives of IFIs and private sectors, will discuss deepening economic ties between these two regions.  We also invite you to join us tomorrow at 2:30 p.m. at the Atrium for a public panel discussion on the economic consequences of the high uncertainty in the MENA and CCA regions. 

    Before I open the floor to questions, I want to underscore the IMF’s deep commitment to supporting countries throughout the region with policy advice, technical assistance, and, in many cases, financial support.  Since early 2020, we have approved almost $50 billion in financing to countries across the MENA region, Pakistan, and the CCA, of which 14.8 have been approved since early 2024. 

    In closing, I want to highlight our engagement to post-conflict economies.  Strengthening economic fundamentals and rebuilding institutions will be essential to successful recovery.  The IMF, in coordination with the World Bank and regional partners, has established an informal coordination group to support recovery in conflict-affected states in the Middle East.  Our focus will be on capacity building, policy guidance, and financial assistance.  We are also working closely with authorities to help stabilize their economies, restore confidence, and lay foundations for sustainable growth. 

    Again, thank you very much for joining us this morning, and now I would like to welcome your questions.               

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you very much, Jihad, and now we will take your questions. And let’s start with the gentleman here in the first row, please.

    QUESTIONER: Thank you, Angham and Jihad.  I’m Amir Goumaa from Asharq Bloomberg.  IMF raised the gross forecasting for Egypt dispIte the regional downgrade.  Why is that?  And how can the MENA region turn the country trade disputes into opportunities? 

    MR. AZOUR: Excuse me?

    QUESTIONER: How can the MENA region turn the current trade disputes and tariffs into opportunities?  Like how can they make the best use of it? 

    MR. AZOUR: Thank you very much for your question.

    MS. AL SHAMI: Should we take more questions on Egypt? Perhaps should we take more questions on Egypt. We’ll start with this gentleman and then the gentleman in the back.  This one first. 

    QUESTIONER: Hello everyone.  My name is Ahmad Yaqub.  I’m the managing editor of Al Youm Al-Sabah Egyptian Newspaper.  I have two questions about Egypt.  The first one is about the expected exchange rate of the Egyptian pound against the U.S. dollar by the end of 2026, the next year, and the expected inflation rate and the economic growth rate of Egypt.  The second question is the next trench of the program, current program with the Egyptian authorities.  What is the timing of the next trench and the total amount of it?  Thank you so much. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: And then the gentleman here.

    QUESTIONER: Ramy Gabr from Al-Qahera News.  The global economic outlook carries good news.  Maybe for Egypt in terms of the economic growth in 2025.  How do you see that and what’s the facts and numbers led to this outlook?  Thank you. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Over to you.

    MR. AZOUR: Thank you very much. Yes, please.

    QUESTIONER: I’m Lauren Holtmeier from S&P Global.  I wanted to ask about the fiscal break-even prices for oil production, specifically for the countries with high fiscal break-even prices like Saudi Arabia and Iraq.  And how will the lowered expectations for oil prices over the next couple of years affect their ability and their economic outlook?  And I recognize that the answer for those two countries might be very different. 

    MR. AZOUR: Thank you very much. I had three sets of questions. One on trade and the impact of the recent trade developments on the region and how those could be turned into an opportunity.  The second set of questions were on Egypt, and the third one was on the GCC and the oil market.  Let me start with the first one. 

    Countries of the region have limited trade dependence on the U.S., and therefore the recent trade and tariff decisions will have limited direct impact on those economies.  Yet it’s important also to highlight that there would be indirect impact.  And also those indirect impact may take different channels.  One impact is the impact that this could have on financial stability and capital flows.  We saw widening of spreads over the last few years, which is an issue that could affect the capacity of emerging economies and middle-income countries who have high levels of debt.  The second potential impact is impact on oil market.  We saw some softening in the oil price, as well as the forwards of oil price are showing a certain extension of those softening over the year.  And the third type of effect is the second-round impact due to trade diversion. 

    I will maybe go into more details about what are the policies that we recommend for countries to address those challenges.  Few countries have more exposure to the U.S. trade like Pakistan or Jordan, and those are specific cases.  I can address those.  Opportunities, of course, in any change there are opportunities, and over the last few years we saw successive shocks and transformation on the geopolitical front and the geoeconomic front, and those have affected the region.  The region stands at the crossroads between East and West, and therefore trade routes, connectivity, as well as also opportunities go through this region.  This would require, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, for countries in the region to seek new opportunities in terms of strengthening their economic relationships and trade ties with regions close to them, as well as also within countries in the region, which will call for new way of increasing connectivity and cooperation in the region. 

    The second set of questions is on Egypt.  Over the last year, growth in Egypt has improved, and we expect growth for the fiscal year 2025 to reach 3.8 percent.  For comparison, in 2024 it was 2.4 percent, and we expect that the growth will keep improving in 2026 and reach 4.3 percent.  Also, inflation went down from 33 percent on average for fiscal year 2024 to 19.7 percent in 2025, and we expect it to reach 12 percent in 2026, despite the various shocks.  Those positive developments reflect the implementation of the reform program that was supported by the IMF and was augmented back in March last year in order also to help Egypt address some of the external shocks, in particular the decline in revenues from the Suez Canal. 

    As you remember, the program is based on four pillars.  One, macroeconomic stability by addressing inflation that constitutes the main issue for economic stability through tightening the monetary policy.  The second is to address the debt issue by improving the primary surplus and also through an active debt management strategy and strengthening debt management organization to reduce gradually the debt and the weight of the debt through the debt service on the economy.  The third important pillar is to preserve the economy from external shocks, and this is the role of the flexibility in the exchange rate.  Flexibility in the exchange rate in a time of high level of uncertainty plays an important way to protect the Egyptian economy from external shocks, and its flexibility has proven to be beneficial to the stability of the Egyptian economy.  The fourth pillar is growing the economy and give a bigger weight to the private sector, and we encourage the authorities to strengthen and accelerate the reinvestment strategy that would allow more investment to come to the Egyptian economy, would give more space to the private sector, and will help the Egyptian economy and the Egyptian people get better opportunities in a time where those international changes would require an acceleration of economic transformation.  The review has been completed in March, and as you know, we had also another facility that was provided to Egypt to help Egypt deal with climate issues, and our engagement with the authorities remain very active.  Shall I move to GCC? 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Yes.

    MR. AZOUR: The next trench will be with the next review. On the GCC, well, of course the direct impact of the trade shock on the region has been limited except that with the prospect of the decline in oil price, it comes at a time where we see a resumption of increase of oil production with the implementation of what has been agreed, though at a slower pace, of the December decision of the OPEC+ agreement.

    As you know, countries of the GCC have different fundamentals and different level of buffers, and therefore there is no one break-even point for all countries.  Our estimates are showing, though, that a decline in oil price of $10 would weaken the fiscal situation by somewhat between 2.3 to 2.7 percent of GDP, and it also, it has similar impact on the external account between 2.5 to 2.7 percent of GDP. 

    I would like to highlight two additional points that some countries have used the opportunity of their diversification strategy to both reduce their dependence on oil as a source of income, but also to diversify fiscally and reduce the impact of oil revenues, which we encourage other countries to follow suit. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you, Jihad. So we’ll take another round of questions from the room, and then we will turn to online. The lady in the first row, please. 

    QUESTIONER: Dr. Jihad, thank you for taking my question.  Nour Amache from Asharq Bloomberg.  I wanted to ask about Lebanon and Syria and to follow up on what my colleagues here asked about Egypt.  They were asking about the next review, if it’s in June, and the next tranche in June, if we can elaborate on that.  Now, regarding Lebanon, today the parliament passed the law of lifting bank secrecy.  Will this make or will this make the program with the IMF faster?  Will this increase the prospects of a program with Lebanon anytime soon, especially since I know the Lebanese authorities represented by the Finance Minister, the Economy Minister, and the Central Bank Governor are all here in Washington, and a lot of meetings have been undergoing?  That’s regarding Lebanon.  And regarding Syria, also a big Syrian delegation is here.  What has been reached so far with the Syrian counterparts?  Thank you. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you. One more question. Maybe we’ll go to the gentleman in the front here. 

    QUESTIONER: Thank you.  Mohammad Al-Lubani from Jordan Al-Mamlaka TV.  I’d like to ask in Arabic.  In light of our dependence on American exports, [ESQUAH] said that 25 percent of the exports go to the United States.  How would the tariffs affect Jordan, and are there any estimates of these losses by the Fund?  And what are the recommendations of the Fund in order to face these challenges? 

    MR. AZOUR: The discussions are, you know, continuing, and the engagement with the authorities is taking place during the Spring Meetings. As I mentioned earlier, we look forward to the next review to see an acceleration of the divestment strategy that is one of the key priorities because of its critical impact on sustaining growth in Egypt, providing opportunities to the private sector, and also helping in the effort that Egypt is pursuing in reducing the debt. In the context of high interest rate, it’s very important to address debt service issue, and this would be accelerated by reducing the debt.  Therefore, we look forward to see progress on the authorities’ plan in terms of divestment.

    On Lebanon, the Fund has been supportive of Lebanon, and a staff-level agreement has been reached in 2022.  Lebanon staff, Lebanon team, is and remained actively engaged with the authorities, providing technical assistance.  And recently, we had two staff visits to Lebanon and the authorities have engaged with our team in order to reactivate a potential program.  They have expressed their interest for that.  The Lebanese economic and financial situation has been made

    more challenging with the recent implications of the war and the massive destruction that in addition to the need to address the financial and economic situation, Lebanon is also facing the need to deal with the reconstruction. 

    The pillars of the program will remain valid as they were negotiated.  Macroeconomic stability, based on addressing the legacy of the financial sector.  The legacy of debt, address the debt issue.  Second pillar is to deal with the macroeconomic stability through fiscal consolidation.  Third pillar is to strengthen governance by reforming SOEs and also increasing and improving the confidence factor.  And third is to address social issues, especially now with issues related to the reconstructions.  Discussions are taking place and staff is on active dialogue with the Lebanese authorities. 

    We are in discussion and therefore I think the discussions that we are having during the Spring Meetings are giving the opportunity for us to understand what are the reform priorities of the Lebanese government.  As you know, staff had a couple of visits in the last few weeks, and we will keep our active engagement with the Lebanese authorities.

    On Syria.  Of course, Syria has been absent for the last 15 years due to the war, and their engagement with the institution has been fairly limited since 2011.  The last Article IV consultation with Syria took place in 2009.  The international community and the regional community has been actively engaged in order to see how we could help Syria recover from a long period of war. 

    We had a preparatory meeting preparatory meeting in AlUla back in February where regional institutions and the international community have agreed to have another follow-up coordination meeting that took place last Tuesday where representatives from international institutions, bilaterals, have convened in order to assess the needs of Syria and also to develop a framework of coordination.  The Fund is engaged to support the international community in its engagement with Syria.  We have already started our assessment of the macroeconomic situation, the institutional capacity, and we look forward to continue our engagement with the Syrian authorities. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Then you have one more question on Jordan.

    MR. AZOUR: Yes, Jordan. In Arabic?  Okay.  Jordan is one of the countries that have been affected by the tariffs, but this is still limited because of the kind of exports or the relationship between Jordan and the United States.  And Jordan managed to overcome, in the recent years, to overcome several shocks, including shocks related to the variability and volatility and the effect of the Gaza issues on the economy of Jordan.  And the latest reviews emphasized the need for Jordan to keep stability and also, despite the external shocks, to take the needed measures in order to improve the macroeconomic situation and to reinforce the economy.  And there has been discussions about supporting Jordan through a new mechanism, the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, in order to help Jordan in the measures that would help it improve adaptation with the climate change and other shocks and other pandemics.  There is actually progress in this regard.  And there will be a review next month by the Executive Board of the Fund about Jordan. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: We’ll turn to Dania, who’s on Webex online. Dania, please go ahead. 

    QUESTIONER: Hello, can you hear me? 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Yes, you can hear you.

    QUESTIONER: Hi.  Hello Dr. Jihad, I just have a follow-up question on the break-even oil prices for the Gulf.  In the October report, countries like Saudi Arabia had a very high break-even price of around 90.  I think it was the second biggest highest in the GCC after Bahrain.  I just wanted to see, this figure is likely to increase given the high expenditures, the lower oil prices.  How will the lower oil prices — you mentioned about the impact on GDP, but the prices, I think, since the beginning of the year have dropped by more than $10.00.  So, the impact has it been considered in the Regional Economic Report?  And especially because I don’t know the report, did it include the impact of the tariffs and the impact of the increase in OPEC production from May, which is accelerated?  And just one clarification, with regards to Saudi break-even, some analysts include the expenditure of the Public Investment Fund.  Is that part of the IMF estimates for the break-even?  What’s included in the break-even?  Thank you very much. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you. Any additional questions on GCC? Okay, let’s take the gentleman in the middle. 

    QUESTIONER: Hello Mr. Azour, Madame Al Shami, thank you for the opportunity.  Philippe Hage Boutros from L’Orient-Le Jour, Lebanon.  How does the IMF assess the potential impact of declining oil revenues stemming from a possible drop in prices amid the tariff crisis on the capacity and willingness of the Gulf countries to fund international aid, particularly for countries like Lebanon and Syria that urgently need reconstruction financing?  Does it anticipate a significant or relatively limited effect?  Thank you. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you. And we had one more question on Saudi that we received online. In light of the global trade repercussions, what is the effect on the Saudi market, especially on inflation and growth?  This question comes from Mohammed Al Sulami from Al Akhbariyah in Saudi Arabia. 

    MR. AZOUR: Let me start with Dania’s question. Dania, let me start by saying that over the last few years from a fiscal perspective, Saudi has made a significant improvement through various reforms in order to diversify revenues outside oil and also reduce certain expenditures, including on the subsidy side. And this effort to diversify revenues has led to an increase of non-oil revenues in the GDP for Saudi.  Of course, the last couple of years have been beneficial in terms of providing Saudi and other GCC countries with surplus in the fiscal as well as also in the current account, which have led to increase in buffers.  Of course, still the oil sector represent an important source of revenue and it’s still also an important source of foreign currencies. 

    Coming to the fiscal strategy, Saudi has established a medium-term fiscal framework that anchors policies and also help them deal with the volatility in oil price and become less pro cyclicals.  Of course, the increase in oil price, sorry, the decline in oil price will have impact on the fiscal and will lead to a potential additional drop in fiscal situation. 

    As I mentioned earlier, a decline of $10.00 per barrel or a decline of $1 million of production will have an impact on the fiscal between 2 to 3 percent.  The decline in oil price is accompanied with a recovery in oil production and Saudi was one of the largest, I would say, contributor to the voluntary drop in oil export. 

    When it comes to the link between fiscal and the investment strategy, the investment strategy has been also put in the medium-term framework in the context of the Vision 2030 and regularly there are updates, recalibration and also phasing, based on the capacity to implement and the priorities.

    In our projections, although developments were taking place almost at the time when we were releasing our outlook, we took into consideration the new assumptions on the oil price for this year as well as also on the growth projections. 

    The second question related to Saudi.  The impact of the latest developments on the Saudi economy.  Undoubtedly, the trade relations regarding the non-oil sector is limited with the United States and therefore the impact will also be limited on trade related to tariffs, especially as oil and gas are exempt from the increase in tariffs.  But there will be an indirect impact, as we’ve said.  Saudi Arabia also has a dollarized economy, whether on the side of exports or imports, and therefore the impact will be limited. 

    On the other hand, the reduction or the depreciation of the dollar will affect services, especially tourism.  And this is a sector that Saudi Arabia is trying to develop by establishing new expansion for tourism in Saudi Arabia.

    The other related question on support to the reconstruction in the region.  Let me first say two things.  One, ODA has declined over the last few years, and more recently with the decisions to stop some of the international assistance by USAID and others.  This will have an important impact, especially on countries in fragility who depend heavily on aid.  Countries like Somalia, Sudan, countries like Yemen.  And this represents a risk not only on the fiscal side, but also on the humanitarian side on food security.  This is the first point. 

    The second point is the region is, we’re talking here about the Levant, is going through an important prospect of post-conflict recovery.  Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, and hopefully, Yemen, and Sudan.  This would require strong international and financial assistance.  Of course, this also would require to accelerate certain number of reforms that will allow the private sector to provide financing.  Those countries have strong diasporas, and the recovery could also be co-led by international assistance, also by private sector support.  And some of the reforms, be it in Lebanon or in Syria, are very important to regain confidence and will allow private sector to play its key role in recovering those economies. 

    The region has been very supportive.  And when we look at the official assistance and the interest that is being shown by several countries in the region, be it in the recent meeting that took place in Saudi Arabia, in Al Ula, where ministers of finance from the GCC and regional institutions convened in order to explore opportunities to provide more assistance to those countries. 

    Again, I think it’s very important also to highlight that assistance has to accompany reform programs that will lay the ground to strong institutions will provide confidence for both citizens and also international, private and public community, in order to accelerate the recovery. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you, Jihad. We’ll take one more round of questions.  The lady on the second row here, please. 

    QUESTIONER:  Hello, I’m Mariam Ali from Dawn News Pakistan.  My question is how will the global tariff war uniquely impact Pakistan?  Any need of buffers in place to mitigate risks to the country?  Thank you. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you. Let’s take maybe one more question. The gentleman here sitting in the front. 

    QUESTIONER: Thank you, , Director Azour.  My question is on Yemen.  Igor Naimushin, RIA News Agency, D.C. Bureau.  So, last week U.S. struck Ras Isa fuel part in Yemen.  I would like to ask you to outline what repercussions this strike will have on energy security and economic situation in Yemen and broadly in region?  And if you could, provide any details how the IMF — what is the IMF view on longer-term risks for the region as U.S. operation on Yemen continues to unfold?  Thank you. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you. We’ll take one more question from the gentleman here in the –.

    QUESTIONER: Hi, my name is Magnus Sherman.  I wanted to return to Lebanon.  The new Prime Minister has pledged to not touch the hard currency deposits.  Does the IMF support that position? 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you. And we have an online question from Camille Faris Abu Rafael. How can low- and middle-income countries in MENA balance urgent social needs with long-term fiscal sustainability amid rising debt and global uncertainty and persistently high interest rates?  We’ll take these questions, and we’ll take another round.  Thank you. 

    MR. AZOUR: On Pakistan. Pakistan made significant progress in restoring macroeconomic stability over the last 18 months and the numbers are, for Pakistan, are showing improvement both in terms of growth as well as also in inflation that dropped from 12.6 percent last year in 2024 fiscal year to 6.5 percent this year, expected to stay at this level for next year.  Debt is also stabilizing in the case of Pakistan, and recently Pakistan has been upgraded by rating agencies. 

    Of course, trade tensions will affect relatively Pakistan maybe more than the average in the region.  But I would say the impact on Pakistan directly can be offset by other measures that would allow the Pakistani economy to reposition itself in a world that is in the midst of one of the largest transformation in terms of trade, economic opportunities, and to reposition itself in order to address any risks, but also to potentially benefit from change in the trade routes. 

    The question on Yemen the situation on Yemen is extremely preoccupying at the humanitarian level, both in terms of food security as well as also in terms of human suffering.  And this situation has been inflicting heavy toll on the Yemeni people for a long period of time.  Of course, broadly speaking, instability has been one of the main issues that the region is dealing with.  Instability is one of the key sources of uncertainty for the region.  Addressing this instability is key in providing security for people to improve their living conditions, providing stability for the trade routes, and also provide opportunities for people to rebuild and reconstruct.  The Fund is engaged to (A) keep a very strong contacts with Yemen, provide technical assistance at a time where we cannot provide because of the security situation, financial assistance.  Therefore, we are actively supporting through technical assistance.  And we are also in regular engagement with the authorities. 

    Our next plan is to reengage through Article IV in order to assess the economic situation in Yemen, help the internationally recognized government assess the overall debt situation and the debt liabilities in order, later on, to help Yemen deal with the debt situation, and provide right assessment for the donor community to provide assistance. 

    Political stabilization security is very important to preserve human and social conditions, and the Fund stands ready to help Yemen as well as also other countries facing fragility and conflicts in the region.  And this is something that we are increasing our resources to provide support to those countries. 

    Lebanon.  Lebanon problems are complex in terms of how to address the overall financial challenge.  The solution has to deal through a comprehensive approach with all the financial issues that Lebanon is facing.  A piecemeal approach is not what Lebanon needs today.  A reform package that restores confidence, addresses the legacy of the past, provides opportunities for the economy to recover, by also promoting the capacity of the financial system to finance the recovery, mobilize international assistance to help Lebanon dealing with the reconstruction needs, and also support the reforms are priorities that our team is currently discussing with the Lebanese authorities. 

    The question related to balancing short-term and medium-term.  I think it’s a very important question.  We live currently in a world of high uncertainty and in our outlook this spring we have — and I would encourage you to read it,  it’s very interesting piece — we have tried to assess the impact of uncertainty on the region and the uncertainty is of multiple layers.  A global uncertainty, regional, geopolitical and conflict situation, but also internal or local uncertainties.  Those are important issues for countries to address. 

    In very brief, countries need to in the short term to preserve stability and that would require to increase their buffers.  And for those who have limited buffers to accelerate fiscal consolidations to reduce the risk, address some of their financing issues, especially countries who have high level of debt and for those who have buffers, preserve those and use them when they need.  But I think what is really important, especially given the lasting negative impact of uncertainties on countries, is to address the medium-term issues.  And addressing the medium-term issues will help unlock growth, accelerating structural reforms, improving economic conditions, provide stronger social protection framework by moving from untargeted subsidies to something that is more meaningful in terms of social support would be extremely beneficial for countries in the region. 

    MS. AL SHAMI: Thank you very much, Jihad and I’m afraid we have run out of time. Thank you all for participating with us today and as always, we will be posting the transcript online.  But just a reminder that we will be launching our report next week on May 1 so stay tuned for that.  And as Jihad mentioned, please join us tomorrow at 2:30 for the seminar on how countries can navigate uncertainties.  Jihad, any last words? 

    MR. AZOUR: Only to say thank you. And thanks to our friends here, the journalists. We look forward to provide you with more details in Dubai next week with all the details, as well as also country-specific information on our Regional Economic Outlook.  And two days after that, in Samarkand, in Uzbekistan, on the outlook for Caucasus and Central Asia.  Thank you very much. 

    IMF Communications Department
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    PRESS OFFICER: Angham Al Shami

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/24/tr-04242025-mcd-press-briefing-sms-2025

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Public invited to line Mall for VE Day 80 procession and fly past

    Source: United Kingdom – Government Statements

    Press release

    Public invited to line Mall for VE Day 80 procession and fly past

    Members of the public are able to watch the VE Day 80 military procession taking place on Monday 5 May

    • More than 1,300 members of the Armed Forces, uniformed services and young people will march from Parliament Square to Buckingham Palace
    • Procession on Bank Holiday Monday begins with a performance of a Churchill speech and finishes with a flypast including the world-famous Red Arrows
    • Public encouraged to host a street party as part of the Great British Food Festival

    Commemorations to mark 80 years since the end of the Second World War in Europe, known as Victory in Europe (VE) Day, will kick off on Monday 5 May with a military procession featuring 1,300 members of the Armed Forces and thousands of members of the public watching along the Mall.

    The events will pay tribute to the millions of people across the UK and Commonwealth who served in the Second World War, telling the stories of those who fought, the children who were evacuated, and those who stepped into the essential roles on the Home Front.

    The procession will begin in Parliament Square when Big Ben strikes midday, and an actor will recite extracts from the iconic Winston Churchill VE Day speech. A young person will then pass the Commonwealth War Graves Torch for Peace to Alan Kennett, 100, a Second World War veteran who served in the Normandy campaign. The Torch for Peace is an enduring symbol, honouring the contributions made by individuals, which will act as a baton to pass and share stories to future generations.

    The Household Cavalry Mounted Regiment and The King’s Troop, Royal Horse Artillery will then lead the procession from Parliament Square, down Whitehall and past the Cenotaph which will be dressed in Union Flags, through Admiralty Arch and up The Mall through to Buckingham Palace where the procession will finish.

    They will be followed by a tri-service procession group featuring marching members of the Royal Navy, the Royal Marines, the British Army and the Royal Air Force. Cadets from all three services and other uniformed youth groups will also take part in the procession to ensure the message of VE Day is handed down to a new generation.

    The Prime Minister and Second World War veterans supported by the Royal British Legion will watch the procession from a specially built dais on the Queen Victoria Memorial.

    The procession will conclude with the Mall being filled with members of the public and a fly past featuring the Red Arrows and 23 current and historic military aircraft.

    VE Day 80 street parties, picnics and community get togethers are being encouraged to take place across the country as part of the Great British Food Festival, led by the Together Coalition and the Big Lunch in partnership with the Department for Culture, Media and Sport.

    Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy said:

    VE Day 80 is a chance for us to come together and celebrate our veterans and ensure their legacy of peace is passed on to future generations. Whether by watching on TV or having a street party with neighbours, everyone can take part. This is one of the last chances we have to say thank you to this generation of heroes and it is right that we do just that.

    Defence Secretary John Healey MP said:

    As we mark 80 years since the end of the Second World War in Europe, I look forward to joining our veterans, serving Armed Forces personnel and young people to remember the remarkable generation who defended the freedoms we enjoy today.

    Our whole nation is invited to join together to reflect on the sacrifices of all those who fought for peace and ensure their legacy is never forgotten.

    Alan Kennett, who travelled to Normandy with the Royal British Legion for D-Day 80, said:

    It is a huge honour to be part of the military procession to start the VE80 commemorations. I remember Battle of Britain pilot Johnnie Johnson bursting in and shouting ‘the war is over’. A big party soon followed, filled with lots of drinking and celebrating the news. The 80th anniversary of VE Day brings back so many memories, and it will be such a privilege to be there with everyone.

    Mark Atkinson, Director General of the Royal British Legion, said:

    The 80th anniversary of VE Day is a special moment for the country and the Royal British Legion is incredibly proud to put Second World War veterans at the heart of the commemorations. It’s important we remember those who went to war, who fought for the freedom of not just Europe but everywhere, and those who risked their lives and never made it back.

    Brendan Cox, co-Founder of the Together Coalition, said:

    VE Day 80 is a moment to celebrate our shared victory and remember the sacrifices it took. Whether it’s hosting a street party, sharing a meal, or writing a message of thanks to a veteran, this is a unique opportunity to thank those who served and to celebrate the values that hold us together. We’re proud to be supporting communities across the UK to mark this occasion in ways that are meaningful, joyful and inclusive. Most importantly, this is a moment for everyone to take part – regardless of background, age or postcode.

    The procession and flypast will be broadcast live on Monday 5 May. On Thursday 8 May, 80 years to the day since the end of the Second World War in Europe, a service will take place at Westminster Abbey followed by a concert in the evening on Horse Guards Parade in which stars of stage and screen will tell the story of the end of the war.

    Armed Forces of Commonwealth nations have been invited to join the procession to celebrate the contribution of people from throughout the Commonwealth to the allied effort during the Second World War. They will be led by The Band of the Irish Guards on parade.

    Military musicians on parade include The Band of the Household Cavalry Mounted Regiment, The Band of HM Royal Marines and a military band from the Royal Corps of Army Music.

    The flypast will include a Voyager transport aircraft, a P8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft, Typhoon and F-35 fighter jets  and will culminate with the iconic red, white, and blue smoke of the Royal Air Force’s Red Arrows.

    Historic Second World War-era aircraft from the Royal Air Force Battle of Britain Memorial Flight will also take part in the flypast.

    ENDS

    Notes to editors:

    Flypast details:

    • P8 Poseidon maritime reconnaissance aircraft has recently flown over the North Sea and North Atlantic to monitor Russian vessels near UK waters.
    • The UK’s fleet of Voyager aircraft has been extensively involved in our support to Ukraine, delivering tonnes of equipment to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and flying thousands of Ukrainian recruits to the UK for military training.
    • Typhoon fast jets are on standby 365 24/7 to protect UK airspace and frequently deploy overseas to help protect our allies from airborne threats as part of NATO Air Policing. Typhoons are currently deployed to Poland.
    • The F-35 Lightning is a fifth-generation fighter jet which deploy on board the Royal Navy’s aircraft carriers – HMS Prince of Wales set sail earlier this week on its eight-month deployment to the Indo-Pacific.

    Members of the public can find street parties and events near them on the governments VE Day 80 website at www.ve-vjday80.gov.uk

    The Royal British Legion has been given funding by DCMS to support veteran attendance at government led events in the UK to mark VE Day 80. This includes travel costs and welfare support.

    Read guidance for the public wishing to attend the procession in London

    As announced last week by the Prime Minister, pubs will be able to stay open an additional two hours on Thursday May 8 to celebrate. More information

    Updates to this page

    Published 25 April 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom