Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
SPC AC 260558
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025
Valid 271200Z – 281200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…
…SUMMARY…
Scattered strong to severe storms are expected on Tuesday from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The greatest
threat of large hail and wind damage will be over parts of southwest
and south-central Texas. A locally greater threat for wind damage
could also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley.
…Southern Plains…
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the Ozarks on
Tuesday, as flow remains from a westerly direction across much of
the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward into central and southwest Texas. Surface dewpoints near
and to the south of the front will be in the lower to mid 70s F,
which will contribute to strong destabilization in some areas by
midday. As low-level convergence becomes focused near the boundary
in the afternoon, thunderstorm development is expected. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move southeastward across
southwest and south-central Texas, where a severe threat appears
likely.
NAM forecast soundings late Tuesday afternoon near the instability
maximum have MLCAPE peaking near 2500 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse
rates near 8 C/km. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
around 35 knots, which should support supercells with large hail.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible,
with supercells that develop intense cores. As the cluster expands
in coverage, and moves eastward into south-central Texas, a
wind-damage threat is also expected.
Further eastward into southeast Texas, an MCS is forecast to move
away from the area during the morning. It its wake, a slightly more
stable airmass should keep convective development more isolated
during the afternoon. A marginal severe threat will be possible with
any cells that can initiate and persist as the airmass recovers.
…Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast…
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the Ozarks on
Tuesday, as flow remains southwesterly over the southeastern U.S. At
the surface, a front is forecast to be located from the vicinity of
southeast Texas extending east-northeastward into the central Gulf
Coast states. A moist and unstable airmass is expected near and to
the south of the boundary over the lower Mississippi Valley and
central Gulf Coast. From the morning into early afternoon, a linear
MCS is forecast to move from southeast Texas into south-central
Mississippi. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the MCS, a
wind-damage threat is expected to develop as the line gradually
intensifies. Some models suggest that strong instability will
develop across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley by midday,
which would support a locally greater wind-damage threat.
Further to the east, moderate instability will likely develop over
parts Alabama and Georgia by afternoon. Although deep-layer shear is
forecast to remain relatively weak, steep low-level lapse rates
during the afternoon may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts.
..Broyles.. 05/26/2025
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