Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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May 26, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon May 26 07:18:33 UTC 2025 (Print Version | | )
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Forecast Discussion
SPC AC 260718
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025
Valid 281200Z – 291200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND
CAROLINAS…
…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will
be possible on Wednesday from parts of the southern and central High
Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states and Carolinas.
…Southern and Central Plains…
At mid-levels, a low will move eastward into the western Great Lakes
on Wednesday, as flow remains from a westerly direction across the
central and southern Plains. At the surface, a front should be
located across the Texas Coastal Plain. As surface heating takes
place near the boundary during the day, low-level convergence will
aid convective initiation. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop near the front in the afternoon, moving southeastward into
the moist airmass. A marginal wind-damage and hail threat will be
possible.
Further west into the southern and central High Plains, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain around
midday. This convection will move southeastward into the lower
elevations during the afternoon, where a marginal severe threat will
be possible. Although cell organization should be hampered by
somewhat weaker deep-layer shear, steep lapse rates will contribute
to a potential for marginally severe hail and strong wind gusts.
…Southeast/Carolinas…
On Wednesday, west-southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over the
Southeast, where a moist and unstable airmass will be in place.
Surface dewpoints across this airmass should be mostly from the mid
60s to lower 70s F. This will contribute to moderate destabilization
in many areas by afternoon. Although deep-layer shear will be
relatively weak, a few strong wind gusts will be possible during the
afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen.
..Broyles.. 05/26/2025
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