Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 26, 2025
Updated: Mon May 26 09:00:03 UTC 2025
.
D4
Thu, May 29, 2025 – Fri, May 30, 2025
D7
Sun, Jun 01, 2025 – Mon, Jun 02, 2025
D5
Fri, May 30, 2025 – Sat, May 31, 2025
D8
Mon, Jun 02, 2025 – Tue, Jun 03, 2025
D6
Sat, May 31, 2025 – Sun, Jun 01, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC – 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260858
SPC AC 260858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025
Valid 291200Z – 031200Z
…DISCUSSION…
…Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6…
A mid-level trough will move eastward into the eastern U.S. on
Thursday, as a front remains over the Gulf Coast states and southern
Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible near and to the
south of the front Thursday afternoon, with the greatest convective
coverage expected over parts of east Texas and the lower Mississippi
Valley. An isolated severe threat will be possible during the day on
Thursday as surface heating takes place. Any severe threat should be
concentrated in areas where low-level convergence becomes maximized
near the front. At this time, confidence concerning a more focused
severe threat area is low.
On Friday, the front is forecast to move southward across the
southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. Moderate instability is
forecast to the south of the front across parts of south-central and
southwest Texas, and across parts of Florida. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may develop in these areas, with a marginal severe
threat possible.
On Saturday, northerly flow at mid-levels is forecast to develop
over the Great Plains. In response, some models suggest surface high
pressure will be dominant across the Great Plains. This would limit
severe potential. However, other model solutions suggest that some
low-level moisture could return northward into the southern Plains.
If this occurs, isolated to scattered thunderstorms that develop in
the afternoon could have a marginal severe threat. Predictability is
low concerning any specific scenario.
…Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8…
Northerly flow at mid-levels is forecast to remain over the Great
Plains on Sunday, as a trough moves east-southeastward across the
Gulf of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is
forecast over the central and eastern U.S. Although isolated to
scattered thunderstorms could form Sunday afternoon over parts of
the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, any severe threat is
expected to be isolated. This same setup is forecast to continue
into Monday.
Further northwest into parts of the northern High Plains on Monday,
model forecasts suggest a trough could move through the northern
Rockies and approach the northern High Plains. An axis of moderate
instability is forecast to develop by afternoon across parts of
western South Dakota and eastern Montana, where a severe threat
would be possible. However, predictability at this range is low.
..Broyles.. 05/26/2025
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