Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
SPC AC 230601
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025
Valid 241200Z – 251200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OZARKS…
…SUMMARY…
Severe storms are likely across part of the southern Plains and
western Ozarks on Saturday. Severe wind gusts, large hail and a
couple tornadoes will be possible. Hailstones greater than 2 inches
in diameter could also occur. Marginally severe storms will also be
possible across parts of the central High Plains, and Southeast.
…Southern and Central Plains…
At mid-levels, a low will move slowly eastward across the
Intermountain West on Saturday, as a ridge moves eastward across the
south-central U.S. At the surface, a low will remain over west
Texas, with a moist and unstable airmass extending from the southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Elevated convection is
forecast over part of the southern Plains and Ozarks Saturday
morning, but this convection should move southeastward during the
day, allowing for moderate to strong instability to develop over
parts of Oklahoma and north Texas by afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form during the late afternoon within
this maximum of instability. Some of the storms could be severe.
Model forecasts suggest that a pocket of strong instability will
develop by Saturday afternoon across parts of southwest and central
Oklahoma. ECMWF and NAM forecast soundings near the expected maximum
of instability increase MLCAPE into the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. 0-6
km shear is forecast in the 35 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb
lapse rates around 9 C/km. This thermodynamic environment will be
favorable for large hail with supercells that form in the late
afternoon. The more intense cores could produce hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter. As a low-level jet strengthens across
central Oklahoma, NAM forecast soundings increase 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity to over 400 m2/s2. This suggest an isolated
tornado threat will be possible with the more dominant supercells. A
wind-damage threat should also develop. A cluster of strong to
severe storms is expected to move eastward toward the Ozarks during
the evening.
…Southern and Central High Plains…
A mid-level anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Rockies
and High Plains on Saturday. The western edge of a moist airmass
will be in place from west Texas north-northwestward into eastern
Colorado. As surface temperatures warm during the day, cells will
initiate in the higher terrain of southern and central Colorado and
in eastern New Mexico. This convection will spread eastward into the
High Plains. The environment over the southern and central High
Plains is forecast to have steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate
deep-layer shear. This, along with sufficient instability, should be
enough for a marginal severe threat during the late afternoon and
early evening. Hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats.
…Southeast…
West-northwest mid-level flow is forecast over the southeastern U.S.
on Saturday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place, with
dewpoints in the upper 60 to lower 70s F. As instability increases
during the day, isolated thunderstorm development is expected along
corridors of enhanced low-level convergence. Although forcing will
be weak, enough directional shear in the low to mid-levels should
exist for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated damaging wind
gusts will be possible.
..Broyles.. 05/23/2025
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