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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: Earth’s oldest impact crater was just found in Australia – exactly where geologists hoped it would be

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Johnson, Professor, Geology, Curtin University

    Shatter cones formed by the impact in the Pilbara. Tim Johnson

    We have discovered the oldest meteorite impact crater on Earth, in the very heart of the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The crater formed more than 3.5 billion years ago, making it the oldest known by more than a billion years. Our discovery is published today in Nature Communications.

    Curiously enough, the crater was exactly where we had hoped it would be, and its discovery supports a theory about the birth of Earth’s first continents.

    The very first rocks

    The oldest rocks on Earth formed more than 3 billion years ago, and are found in the cores of most modern continents. However, geologists still cannot agree how or why they formed.

    Nonetheless, there is agreement that these early continents were critical for many chemical and biological processes on Earth.

    Many geologists think these ancient rocks formed above hot plumes that rose from above Earth’s molten metallic core, rather like wax in a lava lamp. Others maintain they formed by plate tectonic processes similar to modern Earth, where rocks collide and push each other over and under.

    Although these two scenarios are very different, both are driven by the loss of heat from within the interior of our planet.

    We think rather differently.

    A few years ago, we published a paper suggesting that the energy required to make continents in the Pilbara came from outside Earth, in the form of one or more collisions with meteorites many kilometres in diameter.

    As the impacts blasted up enormous volumes of material and melted the rocks around them, the mantle below produced thick “blobs” of volcanic material that evolved into continental crust.

    Our evidence then lay in the chemical composition of tiny crystals of the mineral zircon, about the size of sand grains. But to persuade other geologists, we needed more convincing evidence, preferably something people could see without needing a microscope.

    So, in May 2021, we began the long drive north from Perth for two weeks of fieldwork in the Pilbara, where we would meet up with our partners from the Geological Survey of Western Australia (GSWA) to hunt for the crater. But where to start?

    On the hunt for shatter cones in a typical Pilbara landscape with our trusted GSWA vehicles.
    Chris Kirkland

    A serendipitous beginning

    Our first target was an unusual layer of rocks known as the Antarctic Creek Member, which crops out on the flanks of a dome some 20 kilometres in diameter. The Antarctic Creek Member is only 20 metres or so in thickness, and mostly comprises sedimentary rocks that are sandwiched between several kilometres of dark, basaltic lava.

    However, it also contains spherules – droplets formed from molten rock thrown up during an impact. But these drops could have travelled across the globe from a giant impact anywhere on Earth, most likely from a crater that has now been destroyed.

    After consulting the GSWA maps and aerial photography, we located an area in the centre of the Pilbara along a dusty track to begin our search. We parked the offroad vehicles and headed our separate ways across the outcrops, more in hope than expectation, agreeing to meet an hour later to discuss what we’d found and grab a bite to eat.

    Large hut-like shatter cones in the rocks of the Antarctic Creek Member at the discovery site. The rocks on the hilltop farthest left are basalts that lay directly over the shatter cones.
    Tim Johnson

    Remarkably, when we returned to the vehicle, we all thought we’d found the same thing: shatter cones.

    Shatter cones are beautiful, delicate branching structures, not dissimilar to a badminton shuttlecock. They are the only feature of shock visible to the naked eye, and in nature can only form following a meteorite impact.

    An approximately one metre tall shatter cone ‘hut’, with the rolling hills of the Pilbara in the background.
    Chris Kirkland

    Little more than an hour into our search, we had found precisely what we were looking for. We had literally opened the doors of our 4WDs and stepped onto the floor of a huge, ancient impact crater.

    Frustratingly, after taking some photographs and grabbing a few samples, we had to move on to other sites, but we determined to return as soon as possible. Most importantly, we needed to know how old the shatter cones were. Had we discovered the oldest known crater on Earth?

    It turned out that we had.

    There and back again

    With some laboratory research under our belts, we returned to the site in May 2024 to spend ten days examining the evidence in more detail.

    Shatter cones were everywhere, developed throughout most of the Antarctic Creek Member, which we traced for several hundred metres into the rolling hills of the Pilbara.

    Our observations showed that above the layer with the shatter cones was a thick layer of basalt with no evidence of impact shock. This meant the impact had to be the same age as the Antarctic Member rocks, which we know are 3.5 billion years old.

    Delicate shatter cones within rocks typical of the Antarctic Creek Member.
    Tim Johnson

    We had our age, and the record for the oldest impact crater on Earth. Perhaps our ideas regarding the ultimate origin of the continents were not so mad, as many told us.

    Serendipity is a marvellous thing. As far as we knew, other than the Traditional Owners, the Nyamal people, no geologist had laid eyes on these stunning features since they formed.

    Like some others before us, we had argued that meteorite impacts played a fundamental role in the geological history of our planet, as they clearly had on our cratered Moon and on other planets, moons and asteroids. Now we and others have the chance to test these ideas based on hard evidence.

    Who knows how many ancient craters lay undiscovered in the ancient cores of other continents? Finding and studying them will transform our understanding of the early Earth and the role of giant impacts, not only in the formation of the landmasses on which we all live, but in the origins of life itself.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Earth’s oldest impact crater was just found in Australia – exactly where geologists hoped it would be – https://theconversation.com/earths-oldest-impact-crater-was-just-found-in-australia-exactly-where-geologists-hoped-it-would-be-250921

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Taung child: the controversial story of the fossil discovery that proved humanity’s common origins in Africa – podcast

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gemma Ware, Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

    The cast of the Taung child skull found in South Africa in 1924. Didier Descouens/Wikipedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    One hundred years ago, a paper was published in the journal Nature that would radically shift our understandings of the origins of humanity. It described a fossil, found in a lime mine in Taung in South Africa, which became known as the Taung child skull.

    The paper’s author, an Australian-born anatomist called Raymond Dart, argued that the fossil was a new species of hominin called Australopithecus africanus. It was the first evidence that humanity originated in Africa.

    In this episode of The Conversation Weekly podcast, we talk to science historian Christa Kuljian about Dart’s complicated legacy and to paleoanthropologist Dipuo Kgotleng about what’s happened to the city of Taung itself, and how paleoanthropology has changed over the last century.

    When Dart’s paper was first published, it was roundly ridiculed by his scientific peers. Charles Darwin had a hunch that all humans had common origins in Africa, but archaeologists at the time weren’t looking for evidence on the continent, as Kuljian, a research associate at the University of Witwatersrand, explains:

     ”Scientists argued that humans had evolved in Europe or perhaps Asia, and that belief was influenced by the false assumption that many scientists had that Europeans were superior to other people from around the world, and that there was a hierarchy of race. Paleoanthropology and the search for human origins had its roots in that era of racialised thinking and white supremacy.“

    Dart’s contribution eventually proved this to be wrong. But at the same time, Dart, like many scientists working in Europe and the US in the early 20th century, was engaged in disturbing and racist anthropological practices, says Kuljian.

    “They were not only collecting ancient fossils, they were also collecting human skeletons. And scientists thought that humans could be divided into separate and distinct racial types based on physical characteristics. They thought that these pure racial types, which we now know do not exist, would give them a clue to understanding human evolution.”

    Not just one ‘hero’

    Alongside Dart’s own complicated legacy, researchers are also reassessing the way discoveries like the Taung child skull are commonly told: through the lens of a solo, white, hero like Indiana Jones.

    What’s missing, says Kgotleng, director of the Palaeo Institute at the University of Johannesburg, are often the stories of the “hidden figures” behind such discoveries. For example, the rock that contained the Taung skull was put aside by local mine workers who recognised its potential significance and passed it onto Dart’s colleague. Kgotleng argues:

    “ For a scientist to have that fossil in hand there was somebody who was on the ground assisting with that excavation. There were other labourers who were there, in most cases they never get recognised … we need to recognise all the workers in that whole process of the discovery through to publication.”

    Kgotleng, who used to work as the archaeologist at Taung, says that today the town “generally looks like it’s still stuck in the 1920s”. She says that many local people know little about the significance of the fossil find and that “the knowledge about the science has not filtrated through to the locals”.

    Listen to the conversations with Kuljian and Kgotleng on The Conversation Weekly podcast, which also includes an introduction from Natasha Joseph, science commissioning editor at The Conversation Africa. Kuljian and Kgotleng both also contributed papers to a special issue of the South African Journal of Science to mark the centenary of Dart’s article.

    This episode of The Conversation Weekly was written and produced by Katie Flood with assistance from Mend Mariwany and hosted by Gemma Ware. Sound design was by Eloise Stevens and theme music by Neeta Sarl.

    Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here.

    Dipuo Winnie Kgotleng has received funding from the Wenner-Gren foundation, National Heritage Council and National Research Foundation. Christa Kuljian has received funding from the Academic and Non-Fiction Authors Association of South Africa, the South African National Research Foundation and the Centre of Excellence in Palaeosciences.

    – ref. Taung child: the controversial story of the fossil discovery that proved humanity’s common origins in Africa – podcast – https://theconversation.com/taung-child-the-controversial-story-of-the-fossil-discovery-that-proved-humanitys-common-origins-in-africa-podcast-251530

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Grattan on Friday: Anthony Albanese beset by disruptors, from Cyclone Alfred to Donald Trump

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Issues sometimes “come at you”, Anthony Albanese declared on Thursday at the end of a news conference, held at Canberra’s National Situation Room, about Cyclone Alfred.

    The cyclone is a disaster for millions of people in its path. For the prime minister, it is a major political disruptor.

    Albanese cancelled his visit to Western Australia: he’d wanted to be there when Labor has its anticipated certain win at Saturday’s election.

    His own election planning – which seemed headed for an April 12 election called this weekend – has been thrown into some disarray (although this is contested by those involved).

    Then there was the good news that was crowded out. Wednesday’s national accounts finally showed some of the much hoped-for positive trends, especially an end to the per capita recession, which had been running for seven consecutive quarters. But with the cyclone naturally dominating attention, who noticed?

    Albanese’s response to the new circumstances was to place himself at the centre of the planning for the cyclone. He stood side by side with Queensland Premier David Crisafulli at his news conference on Wednesday and was early to the Situation Room on Thursday morning, promising to give regular updates.

    To questions about whether he’d abandoned any thought of calling an election at the weekend, the PM insisted (unconvincingly) that politics was furthest from his mind. Though announcing an election would appear near impossible in the circumstances, and attention had already begun turning to a May date (and a budget beforehand), Albanese on Thursday wouldn’t be drawn. Basically, he was waiting to see what happened with the weather.

    The cyclone will be a passing disruptor. The disruption from the Trump administration will be with Australia (and the world) for the foreseeable future.

    Next week Australia will know whether its intense lobbying for an exemption from the US tariffs on aluminium and steel has been effective. Those around the government are not optimistic.

    More concerning than the immediate impact on Australia if we fail to win the exemption is the effect of US protectionism more generally.

    Reserve Bank deputy Governor Andrew Hauser confirmed this week that “from a macroeconomic perspective, Australia’s direct exposure to US tariffs levied on our exports is limited”.

    “[But] Australia is heavily integrated into, and reliant on, the global economy more broadly – and particularly China. Hence the bigger macroeconomic risk for us would be if the imposition of US tariffs on third countries triggered a global trade war that impaired our trade and financial linkages more broadly.

    “As Australia’s long history has shown, we thrive when trade, labour and assets flow freely in the global economy, but we suffer when countries turn inwards.”

    How disruptive this new world will be to the Australian economy can’t be known but it could make things very difficult for a second term Albanese government or a first term Dutton one.

    As Trump tries to force a settlement on Ukraine, there’s been increasing attention on the Europeans’ plans to boost their defence expenditure. This week, we started to feel the heat on Australia to do the same.

    Trump’s nominee for Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby told the US Senate Committee on Armed Services, in a written answer during his confirmation hearing, that “Australia is a core U.S. ally. […] The main concern the United States should press with Australia, consistent with the President’s approach, is higher defense spending. Australia is currently well below the 3% level advocated for by NATO Secretary General Rutte, and Canberra faces a far more powerful challenge in China.”

    Presently Australia’s defence spending is about 2% of GDP, projected to increase to 2.4% by 2033–34.The Coalition has said it would spend more than Labor (but has not specified how much more).

    Defence Minister Richard Marles said he could “obviously understand the US administration seeking for its friends and allies around the world to do more. That’s a conversation that we will continue to have with the US administration. […] But it’s really important to understand we are increasing that spending right now.”

    It’s also important to understand that if Australia must ramp up defence further or faster than present plans, that will suck funds from other priorities, putting another squeeze on future governments.

    Trump’s bullying of Ukraine and its leader Volodymyr Zelensky has not weakened the bipartisan support in Australia for Ukraine.

    But a difference has emerged over whether Australia should (if asked) take part in any peacekeeping force. Peter Dutton said this role should be left to the Europeans. But Albanese flagged his government would consider it, pointing to the many other peacekeeping operations we have participated in.

    Former prime minister Scott Morrison got on well with Trump during the president’s first term and has become even more signed up since. The Morrisons were at Mar-a-Lago for New Year’s eve.

    Morrison was distinctly sympathetic to Trump’s approach when talking this week about Ukraine. He told an Australian Financial Review dinner, “Do we just keep fighting this war every day? The alternative is to find a peace that can be secured.

    “There was no conversation, no real conversation, about peace in Ukraine up until now.” Zelensky had the “most to gain” from negotiating to end the war, he said.

    Morrison is affiliated with lobbying firm American Global Strategies, which has links to the Trump administration. Colby is listed as a senior adviser. The chairman and founder of the group, Robert C. O’Brien, was formerly a national security adviser to Trump.

    Morrison is one of a number of former senior Australian political figures who have a current professional or commercial lock-in to Washington politics.

    Former Liberal treasurer Joe Hockey, who was close to the Trump White House when Hockey was ambassador in 2016-20, is founder and global president of Bondi Partners, a lobbying firm that operates between the US and Australia.

    Another former Australian ambassador to Washington, Arthur Sinodinos, is based in Washington as a partner in the Asia Group, a strategic advisory firm.

    Meanwhile former PM Kevin Rudd, as Australian ambassador in Washington, is trying to amplify Australia’s official voice with the administration.

    Speculation continues about Rudd’s future if the government changed. Dutton says that would depend on how effective Rudd was, saying his present instinct would be leave him in the job.

    Others are sceptical this would happen, and raise Morrison’s name as a possible replacement. Morrison has reportedly told people he would not want the post. But you couldn’t rule it out.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Grattan on Friday: Anthony Albanese beset by disruptors, from Cyclone Alfred to Donald Trump – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-anthony-albanese-beset-by-disruptors-from-cyclone-alfred-to-donald-trump-251258

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US trade wars with China – and how they play out in Africa

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Lauren Johnston, Associate Professor, China Studies Centre, University of Sydney

    Since taking office, US president Donald Trump has implemented policies that have been notably hostile towards China. They include trade restrictions. Most recently, a 20% tariff was added to all imports from China and new technological restrictions were imposed under the America First Investment Policy. This isn’t the first time US-China tensions have flared. Throughout history the relationship has been fraught by economic, military and ideological conflicts.

    China-Africa scholar and economist Lauren Johnston provides insights into how these dynamics may also shape relations between Africa and China.

    How has China responded to hostile US policies?

    First, China tends to have a defiant official response. It expresses disappointment, then states that the US policy position is not helpful to any country or the world economy.

    Second, China makes moves domestically to prioritise the interests of key, affected industries.

    Third, China will sometimes impose retaliatory sanctions.

    In 2018, for instance, China imposed a 25% tariff on US soybeans, a critical animal feed source. The US Department of Agriculture had to compensate US soybean farmers for their lost income.

    Another example is how, following US tech sanctions, China took a more independent technology path. It has channelled billions into tech funds. The goal is to make financing available for Chinese entrepreneurs and to push technological boundaries in areas of US sanction, such as semiconductors. These efforts are backed up by subsidies and tax reductions. In some cases, the Chinese state will invest directly in tech companies.

    More recently, China retaliated to the US trade war by
    announcing tariffs on 80 US products. China is set to place 15% tariffs on certain energy exports, including coal, natural gas and petroleum. An additional 10% tariffs will be placed on 72 manufactured products including trucks, motor homes and agricultural machinery.

    Agricultural trade has been hard hit. The day the US announced a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, China announced “an additional 15% tariff on imported chicken, wheat, corn and cotton originating from the US”. Also, “sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products will be subject to an additional 10% tariff”.

    How have these Chinese responses affected Africa?

    We can’t say for certain that China’s response to US trade tensions has explicitly affected its Africa policy, but there are some notable coincidences.

    Less than one month after Trump’s return to the White House in 2025, and soon after the first tariffs were slapped on China’s exports to the US, China announced new measures to foster China-Africa trade efforts. The policy package aims to “strengthen economic and trade exchanges between China and Africa.”

    This is the latest in a series of Chinese actions.

    In January 2018 trade hostilities began to escalate after Trump imposed a first round of tariffs on all imported washing machines and solar panels. These had an impact on China’s exports to the US.

    Later the same year, China imposed 25% tariffs on US soy bean imports and took steps to reduce dependence on US agricultural products. China also took steps to expand trade with Africa, agricultural trade in particular.

    In September 2018, Beijing hosted the Forum on China and Africa Cooperation summit, a triennial head of state gathering. It was announced that China would set up a China-Africa trade expo and foster deeper agricultural cooperation. In the days after the summit, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was already acting on this. A gathering of African agricultural ministers took place in Changsha, Hunan province.

    Hunan province has since taken centre stage in China-Africa relations. It’s now the host of a permanent China-Africa trade exhibition hall and a larger biennial China-Africa economic and trade exhibition (known as CAETE).

    Hunan also hosts the pilot zone for In-Depth China-Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation. The zone has numerous initiatives designed to overcome obstacles to China-Africa trade and investment, like support in areas of law, technology and currency, and vocational training.

    Finally, the zone is located in a bigger free-trade zone that is better connected to Africa by air, water and land corridors. African agricultural exports to China pass through Hunan, where local industry either uses these imports or distributes them across the country to retailers.

    Companies in Hunan are well placed to play a key role in supporting China-Africa trade, capitalising on the opportunities left by China-US hostilities.

    Hunan’s agritech giant Longping High-Tech, for instance, is investing in Tanzanian soybean farmers.

    Hunan is also home to China’s construction manufacturing and electronic transportation frontier. This includes global construction giant Sany, which produces heavy industry machinery for the construction, mining and energy sectors. China’s global electronic vehicle manufacturing BYD and its electronic railway industry are also in Hunan. They have deep and increasing interests in Africa and can also support China’s key minerals and tech race with the US.

    As US-China hostility enters a new era, what are the implications for China-Africa relations?

    As my new working paper sets out, African countries are, for example, responding to the new opportunities from China.

    At the end of 2024, while the world waited for Trump’s second coming, various African countries made moves to strengthen economic ties with China, Hunan province especially.

    In December 2024, Tanzania became the first African country to open an official investment promotion office in the China-Africa Cooperation Pilot Zone in Changaha.

    In November 2024, both the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Africa and the China Engineering Technology Exhibition were held in Abuja, Nigeria. Equivalent events were hosted in Kenya.

    Early in 2025 in Niamey, Niger, a joint pilot cooperation zone was inaugurated , and which is direct partner of the China-Africa Pilot zone in Hunan.

    As China moves away from US agricultural produce, for instance, African agricultural producers can benefit. Substitute African products and potential exports will enjoy a price boost, and elevated Chinese support.

    China’s newly elevated interest in African development and market potential will bring major prospects. The question will be whether African countries are ready to grasp them, and to use that potential to foster an independent development path of their own.

    Lauren Johnston does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US trade wars with China – and how they play out in Africa – https://theconversation.com/us-trade-wars-with-china-and-how-they-play-out-in-africa-249609

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Can the UK prime minister make liberal democracies great again?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Wellings, Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations, Monash University

    There’s been some “great television” this past week for those who like to watch the end of the West.

    The US president and vice-president effectively sided with Russia in an attempt to bring the war in Ukraine to an end in a way that benefits a) the United States, b) the US president’s vanity, and c) Vladimir Putin.

    Starmer and post-Brexit Britain

    But every crisis also provides an opportunity. The UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, grasped the chance to slough off his uninspiring domestic image as he sought to keep the US engaged in negotiations and preserve a semblance of Ukrainian sovereignty.

    In truth, Starmer’s diplomacy continues the policy of the previous government, which made Ukraine the crucible for Britain’s post-Brexit reintegration into European diplomacy.

    Since the Russian invasion of 2022, Britain distinguished itself as one of Ukraine’s most vociferous backers. It provided strident rhetorical support alongside around £13 billion in aid since the conflict began.

    Like his predecessors, Starmer’s support for Ukraine has offered respite from domestic challenges. His recent advocacy has led to a three-month high in the polls, albeit with a still dismal net approval rating of -28.

    But we shouldn’t be overly cynical. His government has provided us with a framework to understand its approach. According to the doctrine of Progressive Realism, the UK government’s foreign policy reflects a “tough-minded” assessment of Britain’s position within the balance of power as it pursues enlightened ends.

    The initial fit is evident: throughout his advocacy, Starmer’s continued appeals for a US backstop indicate awareness of British limitations while championing Ukrainian self-determination.

    However, increasing Britain’s military budget to counter Russia at the expense of the country’s overseas aid budget is hardly progressive, as both Starmer and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy have previously noted. Most recently, in Lammy’s case, this concerned Trump’s cuts to USAID last month.

    To his credit, Starmer has recognised that Britain cannot deter Russia alone, and is assembling a “coalition of the willing”. However, even with France and smaller players such as the Scandinavians, Canadians and Australians, this may well be insufficient. Hence the ongoing appeals to the US for security guarantees that it is clearly unwilling to provide.

    If we accept Einstein’s famous definition of insanity as doing the same thing and expecting different results, how should we interpret Starmer’s plans?

    Continuities and change

    Amid all the crisis diplomacy and commentary suggesting this might be the end of the trans-Atlantic alliance, continuity as well as change can be observed.

    One of the most striking examples is the extent to which Starmer emphasises Britain’s longstanding self-perception as a “bridge” between the US and Europe. While recent turmoil has prompted Germany’s new Chancellor Friedrich Merz to declare the need for strategic independence from the US, Starmer continues to depict the US as the “indispensable” ally with whom Britain must strengthen ties.

    Considered alongside Britain’s deep integration in the US’s defence and intelligence architecture, including through AUKUS – with which Trump seemed unfamiliar – it is unlikely Britain will break with America. In fact, it may even strengthen its relationship if Trump’s remarks about a UK-US trade agreement are to be believed.

    For some, these structural explanations suffice when considering Britain’s commitment to the “special relationship” and its identity as the transatlantic bridge. However, psychological factors are also worth considering. Britain’s relationship with the US has been a crucial element of Britain’s pretensions to global leadership since the second world war.

    The uncomfortable truth about bridges is that they get walked over, as was evident when Starmer was blindsided by the US decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine.

    Europe between the US and Russia

    With regard to Europe, it is another case of “plus ça change”. As in 1945, Europe again finds itself caught in the middle between Russia and the US. Critics might say the Europeans should have seen this coming.

    Following the 2022 invasion, Germany, Europe’s most significant economy, proclaimed the moment as one of Zeitenwende, or a “turning point”. However, it subsequently failed to fully substantiate the claim.

    Recently, President of the European Commission and former German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen has proposed a “Rearm Europe Plan” that could see up to €800 billion (A$1.36 trillion) allocated to European defence. Whether this materialises remains to be seen.

    France has sought to assume its traditional leading role in advocating for Europe’s strategic autonomy from the US. President Emmanuel Macron has been a prominent figure, but his plan for a partial one-month truce has garnered only lukewarm support.

    However, Putin and Trump do have their admirers in Europe. What is perhaps surprising is that some of this has been too much even for the radical right to stomach – Nigel Farage, for example, leaped to Britain’s defence after Vance’s disparaging remarks. This only underscores the differences in attitudes towards Ukraine between MAGA Americans and Europeans.

    Starmer has undoubtedly secured diplomatic plaudits. However, the structural forces at play suggest that his “coalition of the willing”, if it sticks to outdated ideas, will struggle to make liberal democracy great again, much as that is needed.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can the UK prime minister make liberal democracies great again? – https://theconversation.com/can-the-uk-prime-minister-make-liberal-democracies-great-again-251360

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Bell Shakespeare brings vitality and cracking pace to Henry 5

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kirk Dodd, Lecturer in English and Writing, University of Sydney

    Brett Boardman/Bell Shakespeare

    Shakespeare’s Henry V (stylised by Bell Shakespeare as Henry 5) is famous for many things. Henry’s rousing speeches. Its chorus directly addressing the audience. Its critical treatment of war. Its comic characters like Fluellen. And the comic exchanges between the French Princess and her maid Alice, trying to speak English.

    For theatre directors, these each serve as different tracks in a mixing deck that can be dialled up or down to temper the treatment of the play.

    Director Marion Potts is a master of this art, bringing vitality and a cracking pace to a big play delivered in less than two hours.

    A world at war

    The play extends the life of Prince Hal from the Henry IV plays. He has forsaken the Boar’s Head Tavern and rejected his friendship with Falstaff, emerging as a politically astute King Henry V: a valiant monarch who will ultimately lead his depleted army to victory over the French at Azincourt.

    This play begins with Henry (JK Kazzi) seeking rightful justifications for his plans to invade France from the Archbishop of Canterbury (Jo Turner). This involves a lengthy speech by Canterbury about detailed legalities; Turner transforms this into a comic tour de force.

    The archbishop could justify just about anything. This brings early and unexpected laughter, but allows the spirit of Shakespeare to shine too, who seems to be showing us the absurdities of war: how quickly politics can be moulded to subjective aims.

    Our world, and the world of our children, continues to be at war. Shakespeare’s canon offers cathartic ways of reflecting on troubled times within the safety of the theatre.

    No specific war is directly paralleled – although the pluck of Zelensky might be echoed in Henry’s costume.
    Brett Boardman/Bell Shakespeare

    Thankfully, no specific war is directly paralleled – although the pluck of Volodymyr Zelensky might be echoed in Henry’s costume (t-shirts, sports jacket, cargo pants). Zelensky’s ethos seems to share some of the youth and people’s touch possessed by King Henry. And Zelensky was recently required to defend his dress code as a leader who remains at war, stating: “I will wear [a] costume after this war will finish”.

    Costumes by Anna Tregloan distribute similar tones across the English and French soldiers, refreshingly devoid of khaki garb. These emphasise the youth of the armies, dressed in streetwear with guerilla flair, sporting boxing boots.

    The prominence of body training throughout serves as an expression of youth and a perpetual readying for conflict.

    Potts states in the program:

    the world of our production carries the vestiges of wars past and the seeds of those to come. A world either in perpetual ‘training’ for wars or delivering on its brutal promise.

    Exposing vulnerabilities

    Nothing is lost in the clarity of the performances, which bring a vocal muscle to Shakespeare’s lines.

    Kazzi is charismatic as the leading man, using fervency and understatement. His first set-piece, urging his troops with “Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more!” stays low, to use a term from cricket, and could be pitched higher in its emphatic urgings, but Kazzi finds excellent range thereafter.

    Kazzi, as Henry, finds excellent range in his performance.
    Brett Boardman/Bell Shakespeare

    The neat set ploy of using a chair and microphone at which various characters sit to deliver the chorus sections works very well with Jethro Woodward’s sound design.

    Perhaps emulating a battleground tribunal, the microphone connected us intimately with individual characters. Westmoreland (Alex Kirwan), the King’s dutiful mate, opens the show with “O for a muse of fire!”, quite articulately from a soldier unaccustomed to public speaking.

    Exeter (Ella Prince) is a warrior amused by all the fuss. English soldiers (Rishab Kern and Harrison Mills) show sensitivity and convey the vulnerabilities of war. And the duo of French Princess Katherine (Ava Madon) and her warm and vibrant attendant, Alice (Odile Le Clezio), hit perfect moments of comic relief as two French women rehearsing the English language.

    Political rhetoric

    The play is otherwise stripped of several comic characters (you won’t see the Welshman Fluellen, or Bardolph, or Pistol on stage), permitting its speedy run with a relentless focus on the war. This breach is filled by the comic subplot of Alice and Princess Katherine, preparing for the outcome of the conflict.

    The movable scaffold of the main set (Tregloan) proves surprisingly versatile, especially with atmospheric lighting and blackouts (Verity Hampson).

    Potts’ use of a screen for subtitles allows her to daringly translate Shakespeare’s lines, so French characters speak mostly French. The musicality of the French language adds ardour and humour, while emphasising the cultural divide of the two warring nations.

    Henry V is a play renowned for showing King Henry as a shrewd leader who must achieve great victories for his country, even by committing war crimes.

    Henry V shows King Henry as a shrewd leader who must achieve great victories, even by committing war crimes.
    Brett Boardman/Bell Shakespeare

    While Henry’s threats of the worst kinds of violence against women and children can be framed as political rhetoric (using harsh words to bring about peaceful ends), he strategically commands the slaying of prisoners when outnumbered by the French.

    While war crimes were beginning to be codified in Shakespeare’s day, he seems to suggest true war heroes are rare, while innocent victims are common.

    Potts’ re-construal of the final scene, often a clumsy betrothal between Henry and Katherine, is made more uncomfortable as Henry flippantly repeats his relentless design to marry her, despite her protestations. While royal weddings were often political instruments at the time, it all seems to be a hollow victory for Henry, who seems suddenly too shell-shocked to care anymore for the rich realm he fought to posses.

    Henry 5, from Bell Shakespeare, is at the Sydney Opera House until April 5, then touring to Wollongong, Canberra and Melbourne.

    Kirk Dodd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Bell Shakespeare brings vitality and cracking pace to Henry 5 – https://theconversation.com/bell-shakespeare-brings-vitality-and-cracking-pace-to-henry-5-249152

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The morning after: here’s what to do once Cyclone Alfred has passed

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yetta Gurtner, Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Centre for Disaster Studies, James Cook University

    Cyclone Alfred is due to cross the coast of southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales late on Friday night or early Saturday morning. Millions of people may wake to a giant mess, if they get any sleep at all.

    So how do you stay safe while you begin the clean up and recovery? It can be helpful to have a plan of action ready, before the time comes.

    First, be prepared to stay inside for a day or so, even after the wild weather has passed. You may have to manage without essential services for a while. And there are several important steps to take before venturing outside.

    I have 20 years’ experience in disaster studies, including how communities can recover. Here’s what you need to know about surviving the morning after Cyclone Alfred.

    Before you leave your safe room

    Say you’ve chosen to “shelter in place”, in the safest room in the house. That’s the smallest room with the fewest windows – usually a bathroom, in a hall or a room under the stairs.

    Do not leave this room until you have been told it’s safe to do so by authorities. Even after the storm has passed, the wind gusts can be very unpredictable. Depending on your location, floodwater may still be a threat.

    If you still have access to the internet, check the digital disaster dashboard online. In Queensland, every council has their own disaster dashboard. New South Wales has the Hazards Near Me app.

    Tune into your local ABC radio station for official emergency updates, warnings and advice. Make sure you have
    spare batteries and even a backup AM-FM radio. Try to minimise use of your mobile phone to conserve battery power and network capacity. SMS/text messages are more likely to get through than phone calls.

    While you wait for normal services to resume

    After the cyclone there may be no power, internet, mobile telephone reception or water supply to your home. This may persist for some time.

    Ahead of the cyclone, try to store enough drinking water to provide three litres per person for several days (don’t forget water for your pets). Store water in bottles in the freezer – it keeps it cool if the power goes out and can be drinking water when it melts. You also need extra water for hygiene, cleaning up and toileting. Fill your bathtub or top-loading washing machine with water before the storm approaches.

    During a flood, sewage may come up through the toilet and the drains of dwellings on the ground level. Before the cyclone, cover your drains with plastic sheeting with a sandbag on top for weight. Place a plastic bag full of sand inside the toilet to form a plug and close the seat. Consider a bucket as a short-term option for toileting.

    Wait for flood waters to recede before unsealing the toilet. When the storm has passed, check local council advice on whether the sewage system is functioning before attempting to flush the toilet again.

    If the power has been out your fridge can remain cool, however food inside may no longer be safe to eat. If items in your freezer have started to defrost, either cook immediately or dispose of them. Some medicines requiring refrigeration will also have to be thrown out.

    Don’t use electric appliances if they are wet and check for any potential gas leaks from gas appliances before use.

    Severe Weather Update 6 March 2025: Tropical Cyclone Alfred moving more slowly towards the coast.

    Contact your insurance provider immediately

    If you are likely to make an insurance claim, contact your insurer straight away for advice.

    The insurance company will probably ask for your policy number. Try to have it (and other important documents) on hand – perhaps in a waterproof wallet, or as photos on your phone.

    Don’t go straight into clean up and recovery mode until you have checked their requirements. Ripping up wet carpets and throwing out your belongings may not be consistent with your insurance policy. Disposing of proof of damage may cause your claim to be rejected.

    Approaches vary between insurance companies. They may require photographs or a written inventory of damaged items. For instance, floodwater will often leave a high-water mark on the walls. Take a photo with a ruler or bottle for reference. The more you can document, the less the insurance company can dispute.

    Before you head outside

    Don’t leave your house until officials say it is safe to do so.

    If you have it, put on protective clothing and equipment including fully covered shoes, gloves, glasses, and an N95 mask. Wear a hat, long pants and long sleeves.

    Keep your children and pets secure inside for as long as you can, until you know the area is safe and clear.

    Switch off your electricity, gas and solar system prior to severe weather. Before switching everything back on, check your house and appliances for any obvious damage. Then check with your utility service provider that all is in order.

    Even if your house is without power, downed power lines may be live. Do not touch them, even if only wanting to move them. Call 000 if it is life threatening, or contact your local energy provider.

    Check for obvious structural damage to the house such as broken windows, water leaks or damaged roofs (such as missing tiles or screws). Beware of fallen or windswept debris and broken glass.

    Look out for wildlife and pests, including venomous snakes and spiders. Don’t poke anything to check if it’s alive.

    Before you start cleaning up

    Wear protective gear when dealing with water-damaged goods and mud. Don’t touch your face at all and if you can, wear a protective N95 mask.

    The mud and dirty water may be contaminated, so be sure to disinfect and wash your hands thoroughly.

    If you have cuts and scrapes, disinfect and cover them immediately, because there’s a high chance of infection.

    Following floods in Northern Queensland this year, 16 people died after being infected with melioidosis, a bacterium found in mud. The bug is more prevalent after heavy rainfall. If you feel unwell, seeking medical advice.

    Mould is another big issue after heavy rain and flooding. Open your windows to ventilate.

    Before you venture further afield

    Resist the urge to go sightseeing. Check on your neighbours and vulnerable community members neighbours instead.

    Talk to friends, family, neighbours and contacts about how you’re feeling. Be honest. It’s perfectly normal to feel anxious and upset after a disaster event.

    If you need extra assistance, seek help. Community recovery hubs will be set up and they will have a list of telephone numbers for support. Use the services available.

    Check your local disaster dashboard or app for up-to-date information on road closures, evacuation centres, and other emergency details.

    Yetta Gurtner has received funding in the past from the Bureau of Meteorology. She is a community engagement officer with the Queensland State Emergency Services.

    – ref. The morning after: here’s what to do once Cyclone Alfred has passed – https://theconversation.com/the-morning-after-heres-what-to-do-once-cyclone-alfred-has-passed-251602

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Cyclone Alfred is slowing – and that could make it more destructive. Here’s how climate change might have influenced it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liz Ritchie-Tyo, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Monash University

    Cyclone Alfred has now been delayed, as the slow-moving system stalls in warm seas off southeast Queensland. Unfortunately, the expected slow pace of the cyclone will bring even more rain to affected communities.

    This is because it will linger for longer over the same location, dumping more rain before it moves on. Alfred’s slowing means the huge waves triggered by the cyclone will last longer too, likely making coastal erosion and flooding worse.

    Cyclone Alfred is unusual – the first cyclone in half a century to come this far south and make expected landfall.

    When unusual disasters strike, people naturally want to know what role climate change played – a process known as “climate attribution”. Unfortunately, this process takes time if you want details on a specific event.

    We can’t yet say if Alfred’s unusual path and slow speed are linked to climate change. But climate change is driving very clear trends which can load the dice for more intense cyclones arriving in subtropical regions. These include the warm waters which fuel cyclones spreading further south, and cyclones dumping more rain than they used to.

    So, let’s unpick what’s driving Cyclone Alfred’s behaviour – including the potential role of climate change.



    Read more:
    Cyclone Alfred is bearing down. Here’s how it grew so fierce – and where it’s expected to hit

    A Bureau of Meteorology update on Cyclone Alfred dated Thursday, March 6.

    Not necessarily climate linked: Alfred’s southerly path

    Many cyclones make it as far south as Brisbane – but they’re nearly all far out at sea. Weather patterns mean most cyclones heading south are diverted to the east, where remnants can hit New Zealand as large extratropical storms.

    The fact that Alfred is set to make landfall is very unusual. But we can’t yet definitively say this is due to climate change. Cyclones are steered by winds and weather patterns, and the Coral Sea’s complex weather makes cyclone paths here very hard to predict.

    Alfred’s abrupt westward shift is due to a large region of high pressure to its south, which has pushed it directly towards heavily populated areas of southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales. These steering winds are not very strong, which is why Alfred is moving slowly.

    In 2014, researchers showed cyclones are reaching their maximum intensity in areas further south in the southern hemisphere and north in the northern hemisphere than they used to. In 2021, researchers also found cyclones were reaching their maximum intensity closer to coasts, moving about 30 km closer per decade.

    Climate link: Warmer seas

    Cyclones typically need water temperatures of 26.5°C or more to form.

    More than 90% of all extra heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions is stored in the seas. The oceans are the hottest on record, and records keep falling. But normal seasonal variability and shifting ocean currents are still at work too, and we can get unusually warm waters without climate change as a cause.

    What we do know is that ocean temperatures around much of Australia have been unusually warm.

    The northeastern Coral Sea, where Cyclone Alfred formed, experienced the fourth-hottest temperatures on record for February and the hottest on record for January.

    In the Coral Sea, sea surface temperatures were the fourth highest on record in February 2025 and the highest on record in January 2025. This figure shows the trend over time for February.
    Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

    We also know Australia’s southern waters are warming up too.

    The energy available to power tropical cyclones in subtropical regions has also increased in recent decades, due largely to rising ocean temperatures.

    Average sea surface temperatures in central and southern Queensland on Thursday March 6th. Point Danger is on the Gold Coast.
    Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

    Climate link: Fewer cyclones but more likely to be intense

    In the northern hemisphere, researchers have found a trend towards fewer cyclones over time. But of those which do form, a higher proportion are more intense.

    It’s not fully clear if the same trend exists in the southern hemisphere, though we are seeing fewer cyclones forming over time.

    This summer, eight tropical cyclones have formed in Australian waters. Six were classified as severe (category 3 and up). Historically, Australia has experienced a higher proportion of category 1 and 2 cyclones, which bring weaker wind speeds.

    On average, we see about 11 cyclones form and 4-5 make landfall. There has been a downward trend in the number of cyclones forming in the Australian region in recent decades.

    Fewer cyclones, but more likely to be intense: this figure shows the number of severe (Category 3 and up) and non-severe tropical cyclones (Category 1 and 2) since 1970/71.
    Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

    Climate link: Cyclones dumping more rain

    The intensity of a cyclone refers to the speed of the wind and size of the wind-affected area.

    But a cyclone’s rain field is also important. This refers to the area of heavy rain produced by storms when they’re at cyclone intensity and afterwards as they decay into tropical lows.

    The rate of rainfall brought by cyclones in Australia isn’t necessarily increasing, but more cyclones are moving slowly, such as Alfred. This means more rain per cyclone, on average.

    Rising ocean temperatures mean more water evaporates off the sea surface, meaning forming cyclones can absorb more moisture and dump more rain when it reaches land.

    Why are cyclones slowing down? This is likely because air current circulation in the tropics has weakened. This has a clear link to climate change. Wind speeds have fallen 5 to 15% in the tropics, depending on where you are in the world. It’s hard to pinpoint the change clearly in our region, because the historic record of cyclone tracks isn’t very long.

    For every degree (°C) of warming, rainfall intensity increases 7%. This is well established. But newer research is showing the rate may actually be double this or even higher, as the process of condensation releases heat which can trigger more rain.

    Clear climate link: Bigger storm surges due to sea level rise

    Sea levels are on average about 20 centimetres higher than they were before 1880.

    When a cyclone is about to make landfall, its intense winds push up a body of seawater ahead of it – the storm surge. In low lying areas, this can spill out and flood streets.

    Because climate change is causing baseline sea levels to rise, storm surges can reach further inland. Sea-level rise will also make coastal erosion more destructive.

    What should we take from this?

    We can’t say definitively that climate change is behind Cyclone Alfred’s unusual track.

    But factors such as rising sea levels, slower cyclones and warmer oceans are changing how cyclones behave and the damage they can do.

    Over time, we can expect to see cyclones arriving in regions not historically affected – and carrying more rain when they arrive.

    Liz Ritchie-Tyo receives funding from The Australian Research Council and the U.S. Office of Naval Research

    Andrew Dowdy receives funding from University of Melbourne as well as supported through the Australian Research Council.

    Hamish Ramsay receives funding from the Australian Climate Service.

    – ref. Cyclone Alfred is slowing – and that could make it more destructive. Here’s how climate change might have influenced it – https://theconversation.com/cyclone-alfred-is-slowing-and-that-could-make-it-more-destructive-heres-how-climate-change-might-have-influenced-it-251594

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How are scientists tracking Cyclone Alfred?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sanjeev Kumar Srivastava, Associate Professor of Geospatial Analysis, University of the Sunshine Coast

    Tropical Cyclone Alfred is now expected to make landfall early on Saturday morning – later than initial estimates that suggested it would strike southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales on Friday.

    So, how do scientists track cyclones and make predictions about when and where they will hit?

    I’m a geospatial analyst who uses satellites and other remote-sensing technology for natural resources management. I study data about storms, wildfires and vegetation regrowth around the world.

    Remote-sensing satellites travel through space collecting data about Earth’s surface and atmosphere.

    When it comes to cyclones, information these satellites collect about clouds, temperatures, wind speeds and other variables is crucial. It helps scientists make accurate weather predictions – enabling communities to prepare and protect themselves.

    Geostationary satellites

    Remote sensing refers to technology that gathers information from a distance.

    Remote-sensing satellites move with the Earth. They observe the same hemisphere constantly and send real-time images back to scientists on the ground. The main ones we use in Australia are called Himawari-8 and -9, and they were launched by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

    As reported by the ABC, Himawari-9 captured images showing how Cyclone Alfred travelled down the coast of Queensland earlier this week and then headed toward Brisbane.

    Himawari satellites images show how Cyclone Alfred has moved along its path.

    Geostationary remote sensing satellites are excellent at helping us detect:

    • the centres of tropical cyclones over the ocean
    • developing thunderstorms
    • volcanic material in the atmosphere and
    • how clouds are moving.

    Himawari collects images and information from the visible and infrared spectrum. This can give us cloud temperature, which can provide more precise information about where the eye of a cyclone is (the eye tends to have a higher temperature).

    Polar-orbiting satellites

    Polar-orbiting satellites move across the Earth north to south, and pass close to the poles.

    They collect information at various intervals and send it back to Earth. Well-known polar orbiting satellites include Landsat 8-9 (run by the US Geological Survey), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Joint Polar Satellite System.

    The polar-orbiting satellites give us clear images but not very often. They are just snapshots. They are more useful for providing post-cyclone damage assessments than they are for predicting the path of cyclones.

    Valuable images, and data in the visible, infrared, and microwave range

    Both geostationary and polar orbiting satellites collect data in the visible and infrared regions. There are polar satellites collecting data in the microwave range.

    This means we can look at Earth through the cloud, get cloud temperature information and wind direction.

    In addition to these satellites, the Bureau of Meteorology have their own weather watch radar sensors on the ground. These ground-based radar are set up at various locations and can detect moisture very easily, which helps us work out how moisture is moving into and through clouds.

    Cyclone Alfred is currently shaping up to be a category two cyclone. This means once it makes landfall, it would have an average wind speed of between 89 and 117 kilometres an hour, and gusts between 125 and 164 kilometres an hour.

    Wind speed is predicted using complex algorithms.

    Why do predictions sometimes change?

    Meteorology is a very complex area of science and predictions are based on many, many different data points.

    Sometimes a cyclone’s path will deviate from initial projections, but this is very normal. It’s really hard to predict the future track of a cyclone!

    This is particularly true when cyclones form over the Coral Sea, as in the case of Alfred. There, cyclones paths are among the most unpredictable in the world.

    Sometimes unexpected factors may arise. For example, a recently arrived low pressure system in the west is currently slowing down the arrival of Cyclone Alfred.

    Despite cyclone predictions being difficult, the Bureau of Meteorology is the most reliable and up-to-date source of information on Cyclone Alfred.

    Sanjeev Kumar Srivastava has received funding in the past from the Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, various local councils and several cooperative research centres. He is a member of Earth Observation Australia.

    – ref. How are scientists tracking Cyclone Alfred? – https://theconversation.com/how-are-scientists-tracking-cyclone-alfred-251611

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How Trump is weaponising the Department of Justice, and the ‘dark’ tactic he’s using to get away with it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Harrington, Associate Professor, School of Communication, Queensland University of Technology

    It’s hard to keep track of US President Donald Trump’s many notable acts since returning to the White House. His recent pro-Russia stance on the war in Ukraine has, rightly, received a lot of attention.

    But for every big moment, there are others that fly under the radar. One such issue is the politicisation of the Department of Justice (DoJ).

    Although there is longstanding precedent that the DoJ remains politically neutral in its operations, recent events have indicated a dramatic break from that tradition.

    And, importantly, Trump has been laying the groundwork to justify this for nearly two years, using a propaganda tactic that’s been employed by authoritarian governments throughout history.

    Strategic sidelining

    The current administration has attempted to fire or sideline anyone at the DoJ who was involved with prior investigations and prosecutions of the now-president.

    This includes special counsel Jack Smith’s investigations into several aspects of Trump’s wrongdoing, which have since ended. Several lawyers have been fired, ostensibly because “the Acting Attorney-General does not trust these officials to assist in faithfully implementing the President’s agenda”.

    This action is not only vindictive, but likely designed to intimidate would-be investigators and make them think twice before further examining any wrongdoing by Trump or his associates.

    Equally noteworthy has been the department’s attempts to drop corruption charges against New York mayor Eric Adams.
    The official reason is that pursuing the charges might “interfere” with Adams’ reelection campaign.

    In reality, however, Adams has been accused of cutting a deal with the administration: he agrees to assist with Trump’s immigration crackdown in return for having the charges against him withdrawn (although not dropped entirely).

    Adams denies the existence of a quid pro quo, but he did joke about it on national television with Tom Homan, Trump’s “Border Czar”.

    So deeply problematic was all this that two US attorneys for the Southern District of New York opted to resign in protest, rather than be party to what they saw as a nakedly corrupt act.

    The whole scenario is eerily reminiscent of 1973’s “Saturday Night Massacre”, when President Richard Nixon ordered his Attorney-General Elliot Richardson to fire the special prosecutor investigating the Watergate scandal.

    Nixon eventually had his way, but not before refusals and resignations from both Richardson, and the Deputy Attorney-General William Ruckleshaus.

    But, where Nixon’s move dramatically hastened his own downfall, Trump’s actions have barely raised an eyebrow. Why?

    The propaganda play

    The answer lies in a propaganda technique known as “accusation in a mirror”, which entails accusing one’s opponents of the very wrongdoing one plans to commit.

    As one legal scholar explains, it’s:

    a rhetorical practice in which one falsely accuses one’s enemies of conducting, plotting, or desiring to commit precisely the same transgressions that one plans to commit against them.

    Accusation in a mirror has been used in the past, including in the Rwandan genocide. There, trusted voices claimed the Tutsi wanted to “exterminate” the Hutu. Tragically, it helped bring about the exact opposite circumstance.

    Similarly, in February 2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the Ukrainian government of committing genocide against Russian-speaking populations in the Donbas region. This baseless accusation provided a justification for invading Ukraine, which mirrored Russia’s own indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian civilians.

    We suggest Trump has been using this technique since he was first criminally indicted, in early 2023, on 34 felony charges related to the falsification of business records. He and his supporters have insisted the department, under President Joe Biden, was “weaponised” against him.

    Trump repeatedly claimed those charges – and subsequent indictments – were a politically motivated “witch hunt”. He reiterated these claims in his first speech to Congress.

    Many elected Republicans have also supported and amplified that narrative.

    These claims of victimhood have helped prime Trump’s base to appraise any subsequent legal scrutiny of him as purely partisan, and therefore invalid.

    In reality, the facts were straightforward. Prosecutors were sure there was enough proof to proceed with the case, including evidence Trump illegally kept classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago residence, and obstructed attempts to retrieve them.

    In a functioning legal system, nobody is “above the law”. This means even former presidents can be prosecuted if there’s enough evidence.

    Yet Trump’s accusations of a partisan DoJ completely reframed legitimate investigations into alleged political vendettas. In doing so, it effectively justified his subsequent decisions.

    A self-fulfilling prophecy

    The idea that “if they did it to me, I’m entitled to do it back” was made explicit by Trump in late 2023.

    When asked if he would use the DoJ to go after his political rivals, Trump argued he would only be levelling the playing field, stating:

    they’ve already done it, but if they want to follow through on this, yeah, it could certainly happen in reverse.

    In short, Trump’s false claim of being victimised by a politicised DoJ served as moral cover for his own politicisation of it.

    This is a textbook example of how accusation in a mirror can help manufacture the reality it pretends to condemn.

    Addressing the problem

    This tactic has long been a play by totalitarian and authoritarian leaders.

    Foundational propaganda scholars such as Hannah Arendt and Jacques Ellul highlighted how authoritarian rulers often repeat falsehoods – flipping the aggressor and victim – until the masses become desensitised, alienated and confused.

    Once enough people believe the system is already corrupt and untrustworthy, they are less likely to be shocked by an actual purge (such as firing DoJ officials).

    The implications of such tactics extend internationally, not just to the US.

    History cries out to us about the risks of this sort of public discourse. It erodes trust in institutions and liberal democratic processes, paving the road for leaders to undermine them further, corrupting the system in the name of rooting out corruption.

    Ultimately, one of the best antidotes is awareness. By exposing these tactics, we can better safeguard against disinformation, protect the rule of law and hold leaders accountable.

    Stephen Harrington receives funding from the Australian Research Council, for the Discovery Project ‘Understanding and Combatting “Dark Political Communication”‘.

    Timothy Graham receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) for his Discovery Early Career Researcher Award, ‘Combatting Coordinated Inauthentic Behaviour on Social Media’. He also receives ARC funding for the Discovery Project, ‘Understanding and Combatting “Dark Political Communication”‘.

    – ref. How Trump is weaponising the Department of Justice, and the ‘dark’ tactic he’s using to get away with it – https://theconversation.com/how-trump-is-weaponising-the-department-of-justice-and-the-dark-tactic-hes-using-to-get-away-with-it-250760

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Cyclone Alfred is slowing down – and that could make it more destructive. Here’s how climate change might have influenced it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liz Ritchie-Tyo, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Monash University

    Cyclone Alfred has now been delayed, as the slow-moving system stalls in warm seas off southeast Queensland. Unfortunately, the expected slow pace of the cyclone will bring even more rain to affected communities.

    This is because it will linger for longer over the same location, dumping more rain before it moves on. Alfred’s slowing means the huge waves triggered by the cyclone will last longer too, likely making coastal erosion and flooding worse.

    Cyclone Alfred is unusual – the first cyclone in half a century to come this far south and make expected landfall.

    When unusual disasters strike, people naturally want to know what role climate change played – a process known as “climate attribution”. Unfortunately, this process takes time if you want details on a specific event.

    We can’t yet say if Alfred’s unusual path and slow speed are linked to climate change. But climate change is driving very clear trends which can load the dice for more intense cyclones arriving in subtropical regions. These include the warm waters which fuel cyclones spreading further south, and cyclones dumping more rain than they used to.

    So, let’s unpick what’s driving Cyclone Alfred’s behaviour – including the potential role of climate change.

    A Bureau of Meteorology update on Cyclone Alfred dated Thursday, March 6.

    Not necessarily climate linked: Alfred’s southerly path

    Many cyclones make it as far south as Brisbane – but they’re nearly all far out at sea. Weather patterns mean most cyclones heading south are diverted to the east, where remnants can hit New Zealand as large extratropical storms.

    The fact that Alfred is set to make landfall is very unusual. But we can’t yet definitively say this is due to climate change. Cyclones are steered by winds and weather patterns, and the Coral Sea’s complex weather makes cyclone paths here very hard to predict.

    Alfred’s abrupt westward shift is due to a large region of high pressure to its south, which has pushed it directly towards heavily populated areas of southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales. These steering winds are not very strong, which is why Alfred is moving slowly.

    In 2014, researchers showed cyclones are reaching their maximum intensity in areas further south in the southern hemisphere and north in the northern hemisphere than they used to. In 2021, researchers also found cyclones were reaching their maximum intensity closer to coasts, moving about 30 km closer per decade.

    Climate link: Warmer seas

    Cyclones typically need water temperatures of 26.5°C or more to form.

    More than 90% of all extra heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions is stored in the seas. The oceans are the hottest on record, and records keep falling. But normal seasonal variability and shifting ocean currents are still at work too, and we can get unusually warm waters without climate change as a cause.

    What we do know is that ocean temperatures around much of Australia have been unusually warm.

    The northeastern Coral Sea, where Cyclone Alfred formed, experienced the fourth-hottest temperatures on record for February and the hottest on record for January.

    In the Coral Sea, sea surface temperatures were the fourth highest on record in February 2025 and the highest on record in January 2025. This figure shows the trend over time for February.
    Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

    We also know Australia’s southern waters are warming up too.

    The energy available to power tropical cyclones in subtropical regions has also increased in recent decades, due largely to rising ocean temperatures.

    Average sea surface temperatures in central and southern Queensland on Thursday March 6th. Point Danger is on the Gold Coast.
    Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

    Climate link: Fewer cyclones but more likely to be intense

    In the northern hemisphere, researchers have found a trend towards fewer cyclones over time. But of those which do form, a higher proportion are more intense.

    It’s not fully clear if the same trend exists in the southern hemisphere, though we are seeing fewer cyclones forming over time.

    This summer, eight tropical cyclones have formed in Australian waters. Six were classified as severe (category 3 and up). Historically, Australia has experienced a higher proportion of category 1 and 2 cyclones, which bring weaker wind speeds.

    On average, we see about 11 cyclones form and 4-5 make landfall. There has been a downward trend in the number of cyclones forming in the Australian region in recent decades.

    Fewer cyclones, but more likely to be intense: this figure shows the number of severe (Category 3 and up) and non-severe tropical cyclones (Category 1 and 2) since 1970/71.
    Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

    Climate link: Cyclones dumping more rain

    The intensity of a cyclone refers to the speed of the wind and size of the wind-affected area.

    But a cyclone’s rain field is also important. This refers to the area of heavy rain produced by storms when they’re at cyclone intensity and afterwards as they decay into tropical lows.

    The rate of rainfall brought by cyclones in Australia isn’t necessarily increasing, but more cyclones are moving slowly, such as Alfred. This means more rain per cyclone, on average.

    Rising ocean temperatures mean more water evaporates off the sea surface, meaning forming cyclones can absorb more moisture and dump more rain when it reaches land.

    Why are cyclones slowing down? This is likely because air current circulation in the tropics has weakened. This has a clear link to climate change. Wind speeds have fallen 5 to 15% in the tropics, depending on where you are in the world. It’s hard to pinpoint the change clearly in our region, because the historic record of cyclone tracks isn’t very long.

    For every degree (°C) of warming, rainfall intensity increases 7%. This is well established. But newer research is showing the rate may actually be double this or even higher, as the process of condensation releases heat which can trigger more rain.

    Clear climate link: Bigger storm surges due to sea level rise

    Sea levels are on average about 20 centimetres higher than they were before 1880.

    When a cyclone is about to make landfall, its intense winds push up a body of seawater ahead of it – the storm surge. In low lying areas, this can spill out and flood streets.

    Because climate change is causing baseline sea levels to rise, storm surges can reach further inland. Sea-level rise will also make coastal erosion more destructive.

    What should we take from this?

    We can’t say definitively that climate change is behind Cyclone Alfred’s unusual track.

    But factors such as rising sea levels, slower cyclones and warmer oceans are changing how cyclones behave and the damage they can do.

    Over time, we can expect to see cyclones arriving in regions not historically affected – and carrying more rain when they arrive.

    Liz Ritchie-Tyo receives funding from The Australian Research Council and the U.S. Office of Naval Research

    Andrew Dowdy receives funding from University of Melbourne as well as supported through the Australian Research Council.

    Hamish Ramsay receives funding from the Australian Climate Service.

    – ref. Cyclone Alfred is slowing down – and that could make it more destructive. Here’s how climate change might have influenced it – https://theconversation.com/cyclone-alfred-is-slowing-down-and-that-could-make-it-more-destructive-heres-how-climate-change-might-have-influenced-it-251594

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: HILDA data shows income inequality is at a 20-year high

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ferdi Botha, Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne

    ArliftAtoz2205/Shutterstock

    The 19th annual report from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey was released today.

    The HILDA Survey has been following the same people every year since 2001, which makes it possible to examine how the lives of Australians have changed across several aspects.

    With data from 2001 to 2022, in this year’s report we looked at issues including income inequality, household chores, and the impact of natural disasters on Australian households.

    Income inequality is the highest since 2001

    Funded by the Australian government and managed by the Melbourne Institute, the survey is one of Australia’s most valuable social research tools.

    HILDA examined the lives of 14,000 Australians in 2001 and has kept coming back each year to discover what has changed over the course of their lifetimes. It now covers 17,000 Australians, due to the expansion of participants’ families.

    The survey shows that since COVID-era financial support ended, income inequality has risen substantially.

    The increase in inequality stems from growth in higher incomes as compared to middle incomes, as well as a fall in the growth of lower incomes relative to middle incomes.

    This means, relative to the median earner, Australians already earning a high income have seen the growth in their incomes rise. In contrast, Australians with low incomes have seen a decrease in the rate of growth in their incomes.

    Between 2021 and 2022, 51.2% of respondents reported their real incomes have declined. This is up from about 41% in preceding years, suggesting a decrease in people’s purchasing power.

    A technical measure called the Gini coefficient was 0.32 in 2022, the highest since we started the survey in 2001. The measure ranges from 0 to 1 and is an index that measures overall inequality, with higher scores suggesting greater income inequality.

    Older Australians are getting richer too

    Over the same period, household wealth has continued to grow.

    However, there are large and growing age differences in the growth in household wealth. For young people aged between 18 and 34, net wealth rose by 72.4% to $238,942 over the 20 years to 2022.

    But for older Australians aged 65 to 74, net household wealth jumped by 125% to about $1.26 million.

    These age disparities in household wealth are partly explained by rates of home ownership, which are much higher among older Australians.

    Home ownership is also the most important asset component in terms of total wealth. In 2022, almost 65% of households owned their home, and just over 20% of households held investment properties and holiday homes.

    As a proportion of total wealth, the family home accounts for 44.5% and investment properties account for 14.9%.

    Women are still doing most of the housework

    Australian women still undertake the majority of housework, whereas men’s share of housework has remained constant over 20 years.

    Men’s time spent on housework has not changed in 20 years.
    Diego Cervo/Shutterstock

    Women’s time spent on housework (such as cleaning, cooking, running errands) has fallen slightly from 23.8 hours per week in 2002 to 18.4 hours per week in 2022.

    Men spent 12.8 hours per week on housework, precisely the same amount they did 20 years earlier. Thus, women are still doing close to 50% more housework than men are.

    Men have increased the time they spend on caring responsibilities (such as playing with their children, helping with homework, caring for an elderly relative), from 5 hours per week in 2002 to 5.5 hours per week in 2022. The time women spend on care has risen from 10.1 hours per week to 10.7 hours per week over the same period. In 2022, women spent almost double the time on care duties than men.

    Among couples, men are generally more satisfied than women are with the current division of unpaid work. Most women feel they do more than their fair share at home. Men tend to believe they share the housework and care fairly with their partner.

    Surge in home damage due to weather-related disasters

    Respondents were asked if a weather-related disaster (such as floods, bushfires or cyclone) had damaged or destroyed their home in the past 12 months. In 2022, 4.5% reported experiencing such an event.

    This is a substantial increase from the year before, when only 1.3% of Australians reported weather-related home damage, and exceeding the previous peak of 2.7% in 2011.

    There are also regional differences, closely corresponding with the timing of specific floods or bushfires in the states and territories. In 2022, 9% of New South Wales residents and 6% of Queensland reported home damage, consistent with major floods experienced in these regions in the months prior to the survey.

    Among all Australians who in 2022 reported home damage due to a weather-related disaster, 62.5% were in NSW and 27.3% were in Queensland.

    With the current cyclone Alfred forecast to hit Queensland and northern NSW on Friday, we expect a further significant increase in reported home damage.

    Ferdi Botha is affiliated with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course.

    – ref. HILDA data shows income inequality is at a 20-year high – https://theconversation.com/hilda-data-shows-income-inequality-is-at-a-20-year-high-251596

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Robert F. Kennedy Jr says vitamin A protects you from deadly measles. Here’s what the study he cites actually says

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Evangeline Mantzioris, Program Director of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Accredited Practising Dietitian, University of South Australia

    RobsPhoto/Shutterstock

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who oversees the health of more than 340 million Americans, says vitamin A can prevent the worst effects of measles rather than urging more people to get vaccinated.

    In an opinion piece for Fox News, the US health secretary said he was “deeply concerned” about the current measles outbreak in Texas. However, he said the decision to vaccinate was a “personal one” and something for parents to discuss with their health-care provider.

    Kennedy mentioned updated advice from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) to treat measles with vitamin A. He also cited a study he said shows vitamin A can reduce the risk of dying from measles.

    Here’s what the vitamin A study actually says and why public health officials are so concerned about Kennedy’s latest statement.

    Why is a measles outbreak so worrying?

    Measles is a highly contagious disease caused by a virus. It spreads easily including when an infected person breathes, coughs or sneezes.

    Measles initially infects the respiratory tract and then the virus spreads throughout the body. Symptoms include a high fever, cough, red eyes, runny nose and a rash all over the body.

    Measles can also be severe, can cause complications including blindness and swelling of the brain, and can be fatal. Measles can affect anyone but is most common in children.

    The Texan health department has confirmed 150-plus cases of measles and one death of an unvaccinated child during the current outbreak. While this is by far the largest measles outbreak in the US in 2025, the CDC has reported smaller outbreaks in several other states so far this year.

    Why vitamin A?

    Vitamin A is essential for our overall health. It has many roles in the body, from supporting our growth and reproduction, to making sure we have healthy vision, skin and immune function.

    Foods rich in vitamin A or related molecules include orange, yellow and red coloured fruits and vegetables, green leafy vegetables, as well as dairy, egg, fish and meat. You can take it as a supplement.

    Vitamin A can also be used therapeutically. In other words, doctors may prescribe vitamin A to treat a deficiency. Vitamin A deficiency has long been associated with more severe cases of infectious disease, including measles. Vitamin A boosts immune cells and strengthens the respiratory tract lining, which is the body’s first defence against infections.

    Because of this, the CDC has recently said vitamin A can also be prescribed as part of treatment for children with severe measles – such as those in hospital – under doctor supervision.

    One key message from the CDC’s advice is that people are already sick enough with measles to be in hospital. They’re not taking vitamin A to prevent catching measles in the first place.

    The other key message is vitamin A is taken under medical supervision, under specific circumstances, where patients can be closely monitored to prevent toxicity from high doses.

    Vitamin A toxicity can cause birth defects and increase the risk of fractures in elderly people. Vitamin A and beta-carotene (which the body turns into vitamin A) from supplements may also increase your risk of cancer, especially if you smoke.

    Taking too much vitamin A can lead to toxicity and cause birth defects.
    ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock

    How about the study Kennedy cites?

    Kennedy cites and links to a 2010 study, a type known as a systematic review and meta-analysis. Researchers reviewed and analysed existing studies, which included ones that looked at the effectiveness of vitamin A in preventing measles deaths.

    They found three studies that looked at vitamin A treatment by specific dose. There were different doses depending on the age of the children, measured in IU (international units). Having two doses of vitamin A (200,000IU for children over one year of age or 100,000IU for infants below one year) reduced mortality by 62% compared to children who did not have vitamin A.

    The 2010 study did not show vitamin A reduced your risk of getting measles from another infected person. To my knowledge no study has shown this.

    To be fair, Kennedy did not say that vitamin A stops you from catching measles from another infected person. Instead, he used the following vague statement:

    Studies have found that vitamin A can dramatically reduce measles mortality.

    It’s easy to see how a reader could misinterpret this as “take vitamin A if you want to avoid dying from measles”.

    We know what works – vaccines

    The World Health Organization recommends all children receive two doses of measles vaccine.

    The CDC states two doses of the measles vaccine (measles-mumps-rubella or MMR vaccine) is 97% effective against getting measles. This means out of every 100 people who are vaccinated only three will get it, and this will be a milder form.

    But these facts were missing from Kennedy’s statement. Should we be surprised? Kennedy is well known for his vaccine sceptism and for undermining vaccination efforts, including for the measles vaccine.

    As Sue Kressly, president of the American Academy of Pediatrics, told the Washington Post:

    relying on vitamin A instead of the vaccine is not only dangerous and ineffective […] it puts children at serious risk.

    Evangeline Mantzioris is affiliated with Alliance for Research in Nutrition, Exercise and Activity (ARENA) at the University of South Australia. Evangeline Mantzioris has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, and has been appointed to the National Health and Medical Research Council Dietary Guideline Expert Committee.

    – ref. Robert F. Kennedy Jr says vitamin A protects you from deadly measles. Here’s what the study he cites actually says – https://theconversation.com/robert-f-kennedy-jr-says-vitamin-a-protects-you-from-deadly-measles-heres-what-the-study-he-cites-actually-says-251465

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Woolly mice are cute and impressive – but they won’t bring back mammoths or save endangered species

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emily Roycroft, Research Group Leader & ARC DECRA Fellow, Monash University

    Colossal Biosciences

    US company Colossal Biosciences has announced the creation of a “woolly mouse” — a laboratory mouse with a series of genetic modifications that lead to a woolly coat. The company claims this is the first step toward “de-extincting” the woolly mammoth.

    The successful genetic modification of a laboratory mouse is a testament to the progress science has made in understanding gene function, developmental biology and genome editing. But does a woolly mouse really teach us anything about the woolly mammoth?

    What has been genetically modified?

    Woolly mammoths were cold-adapted members of the elephant family, which disappeared from mainland Siberia at the end of the last Ice Age around 10,000 years ago. The last surviving population, on Wrangel Island in the Arctic Ocean, went extinct about 4,000 years ago.

    The house mouse (Mus musculus) is a far more familiar creature, which most of us know as a kitchen pest. It is also one of the most studied organisms in biology and medical research. We know more about this laboratory mouse than perhaps any other mammal besides humans.

    Colossal details its new research in a pre-print paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed. According to the paper, the researchers disrupted the normal function of seven different genes in laboratory mice via gene editing.

    By tinkering with different genes, researchers produced mice with different kinds of fur.
    Colossal Biosciences

    Six of these genes were targeted because a large body of existing research on the mouse model had already demonstrated their roles in hair-related traits, such as coat colour, texture and thickness.

    The modifications in a seventh gene — FABP2 — was based on evidence from the woolly mammoth genome. The gene is involved in the transport of fats in the body.

    Woolly mammoths had a slightly shorter version of the gene, which the researchers believe may have contributed to its adaptation to life in cold climates. However, the “woolly mice” with the mammoth-style variant of FABP2 did not show significant differences in body mass compared to regular lab mice.

    What would it mean to de-extinct a species?

    This work shows the promise of targeted editing of genes of known function in mice. After further testing, this technology may have a future place in conservation efforts. But it’s a long way from holding promise for de-extinction.

    Colossal Biosciences claims it is on track to produce a genetically modified “mammoth-like” elephant by 2028, but what makes a mammoth unique is more than skin-deep.

    De-extinction would need to go beyond modifying an existing species to show superficial traits from an extinct relative. Many aspects of an extinct species’ biology remain unknown. A woolly coat is one thing. Recreating the entire suite of adaptations, including genetic, epigenetic and behavioural traits that allowed mammoths to thrive in ice age environments, is another.

    Prehistoric drawings of an ibex (left) and a mammoth (right) found at Rouffignac cave in France.
    Cave Painter / Wikimedia

    Unlike the thylacine (or Tasmanian tiger) — another species Colossal aims to resurrect — the mammoth has a close living relative in the modern Asian elephant. The closer connections between the genomes of these two species may make mammoth de-extinction more technically feasible than that of the thylacine.

    But whether or not a woolly mouse brings us any closer to that prospect, this story forces us to consider some important ethical questions. Even if we could bring back the woolly mammoth, should we? Is the motivation behind this effort conservation, or entertainment? Is it ethical to bring a species back into an environment that may no longer sustain it?

    Focus on conserving what remains

    In Australia alone, we’ve lost at least 100 species to extinction since European colonisation in 1788, largely due the introduction of feral predators and land clearing.

    The idea of reversing extinction is understandably appealing. We might like to think we could undo the past.

    According to Colossal’s website,

    Extinction is a colossal problem facing the world. And Colossal is the company that’s going to fix it.

    It’s hard to argue with the first part of that. But focusing on bringing back extinct species distracts from a more urgent reality: species are going extinct right now, and we are not doing enough to save them.

    We should first focus on promises to save surviving species, rather than promises to bring back the dead.

    With more investment in threatened species monitoring, new pest control methods, and conservation genetic management, we can turn the tide of extinction and secure the future for species that remain.

    There’s a long list of threatened species that are still alive now. With the right funding and conservation attention, we can do something to save them before it’s too late.

    Emily Roycroft receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the L’Oréal-UNESCO For Women in Science Programme, and the Australian Academy of Science.

    – ref. Woolly mice are cute and impressive – but they won’t bring back mammoths or save endangered species – https://theconversation.com/woolly-mice-are-cute-and-impressive-but-they-wont-bring-back-mammoths-or-save-endangered-species-251595

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why rating your pain out of 10 is tricky

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joshua Pate, Senior Lecturer in Physiotherapy, University of Technology Sydney

    altanaka/Shutterstock

    “It’s really sore,” my (Josh’s) five-year-old daughter said, cradling her broken arm in the emergency department.

    “But on a scale of zero to ten, how do you rate your pain?” asked the nurse.

    My daughter’s tear-streaked face creased with confusion.

    “What does ten mean?”

    “Ten is the worst pain you can imagine.” She looked even more puzzled.

    As both a parent and a pain scientist, I witnessed firsthand how our seemingly simple, well-intentioned pain rating systems can fall flat.

    What are pain scales for?

    The most common scale has been around for 50 years. It asks people to rate their pain from zero (no pain) to ten (typically “the worst pain imaginable”).

    This focuses on just one aspect of pain – its intensity – to try and rapidly understand the patient’s whole experience.

    How much does it hurt? Is it getting worse? Is treatment making it better?

    Rating scales can be useful for tracking pain intensity over time. If pain goes from eight to four, that probably means you’re feeling better – even if someone else’s four is different to yours.

    Research suggests a two-point (or 30%) reduction in chronic pain severity usually reflects a change that makes a difference in day-to-day life.

    But that common upper anchor in rating scales – “worst pain imaginable” – is a problem.

    People usually refer to their previous experiences when rating pain.
    sasirin pamai/Shutterstock

    A narrow tool for a complex experience

    Consider my daughter’s dilemma. How can anyone imagine the worst possible pain? Does everyone imagine the same thing? Research suggests they don’t. Even kids think very individually about that word “pain”.

    People typically – and understandably – anchor their pain ratings to their own life experiences.

    This creates dramatic variation. For example, a patient who has never had a serious injury may be more willing to give high ratings than one who has previously had severe burns.

    “No pain” can also be problematic. A patient whose pain has receded but who remains uncomfortable may feel stuck: there’s no number on the zero-to-ten scale that can capture their physical experience.

    Increasingly, pain scientists recognise a simple number cannot capture the complex, highly individual and multifaceted experience that is pain.

    Who we are affects our pain

    In reality, pain ratings are influenced by how much pain interferes with a person’s daily activities, how upsetting they find it, their mood, fatigue and how it compares to their usual pain.

    Other factors also play a role, including a patient’s age, sex, cultural and language background, literacy and numeracy skills and neurodivergence.

    For example, if a clinician and patient speak different languages, there may be extra challenges communicating about pain and care.

    Some neurodivergent people may interpret language more literally or process sensory information differently to others. Interpreting what people communicate about pain requires a more individualised approach.

    Impossible ratings

    Still, we work with the tools available. There is evidence people do use the zero-to-ten pain scale to try and communicate much more than only pain’s “intensity”.

    So when a patient says “it’s eleven out of ten”, this “impossible” rating is likely communicating more than severity.

    They may be wondering, “Does she believe me? What number will get me help?” A lot of information is crammed into that single number. This patient is most likely saying, “This is serious – please help me.”

    In everyday life, we use a range of other communication strategies. We might grimace, groan, move less or differently, use richly descriptive words or metaphors.

    Collecting and evaluating this kind of complex and subjective information about pain may not always be feasible, as it is hard to standardise.

    As a result, many pain scientists continue to rely heavily on rating scales because they are simple, efficient and have been shown to be reliable and valid in relatively controlled situations.

    But clinicians can also use this other, more subjective information to build a fuller picture of the person’s pain.

    How can we communicate better about pain?

    There are strategies to address language or cultural differences in how people express pain.

    Visual scales are one tool. For example, the “Faces Pain Scale-Revised” asks patients to choose a facial expression to communicate their pain. This can be particularly useful for children or people who aren’t comfortable with numeracy and literacy, either at all, or in the language used in the health-care setting.

    A vertical “visual analogue scale” asks the person to mark their pain on a vertical line, a bit like imagining “filling up” with pain.

    Modified visual scales are sometimes used to try to overcome communication challenges.
    Nenadmil/Shutterstock

    What can we do?

    Health professionals

    Take time to explain the pain scale consistently, remembering that the way you phrase the anchors matters.

    Listen for the story behind the number, because the same number means different things to different people.

    Use the rating as a launchpad for a more personalised conversation. Consider cultural and individual differences. Ask for descriptive words. Confirm your interpretation with the patient, to make sure you’re both on the same page.

    Patients

    To better describe pain, use the number scale, but add context.

    Try describing the quality of your pain (burning? throbbing? stabbing?) and compare it to previous experiences.

    Explain the impact the pain is having on you – both emotionally and how it affects your daily activities.

    Parents

    Ask the clinician to use a child-suitable pain scale. There are special tools developed for different ages such as the “Faces Pain Scale-Revised”.

    Paediatric health professionals are trained to use age-appropriate vocabulary, because children develop their understanding of numbers and pain differently as they grow.

    A starting point

    In reality, scales will never be perfect measures of pain. Let’s see them as conversation starters to help people communicate about a deeply personal experience.

    That’s what my daughter did — she found her own way to describe her pain: “It feels like when I fell off the monkey bars, but in my arm instead of my knee, and it doesn’t get better when I stay still.”

    From there, we moved towards effective pain treatment. Sometimes words work better than numbers.

    Joshua Pate has received speaker fees for presentations on pain and physiotherapy. He receives royalties for children’s books.

    Dale Langford has received honoraria and research support from the Analgesic, Anesthetic, and Addiction Clinical Trials, Translations, Innovations, and Opportunities Network (ACTTION), a public-private partnership with the United States (US) Food & Drug Administration. She has also been supported by the US National Institutes of Health.

    Tory Madden works for the University of Cape Town, where she directs the African Pain Research Initiative. She receives funding from the US National Institutes of Health. She is affiliated with the University of South Australia, KU Leuven, and the Train Pain Academy not-for-profit organisation.

    – ref. Why rating your pain out of 10 is tricky – https://theconversation.com/why-rating-your-pain-out-of-10-is-tricky-246140

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Creative Australia’s decisions should be peer reviewed and at arm’s length. Where did things go wrong?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jo Caust, Associate Professor and Principal Fellow (Hon), School of Culture and Communication, The University of Melbourne

    For the past three weeks the arts have been dominated by a recent decision made by the board of Creative Australia. On February 7 it was announced Khaled Sabsabi and Michael Dagostino had been chosen as the artistic team to represent Australia at the Venice Biennale in 2026.

    One week later, the board announced Sabsabi and Dagostino would no longer be representing the country because their selection would cause “a prolonged and divisive debate”.

    This about-turn represents a low point in the relationship between artists and their funding body, Creative Australia.

    Creative Australia (known as the Australia Council until 2023) has historically endured many attacks from the public, the media and political parties. This past weekend, for example, The Weekend Australian published three different stories critiquing Creative Australia and its arts funding processes.

    While the amount of money Creative Australia receives is minuscule in relation to overall government spending (in 2023–24 it received A$258 million), the arts themselves enjoy a profile much greater than their monetary value.

    So how does Creative Australia operate? And what does this decision on Sabsabi mean for its relationship with artists?

    What is the peer review system?

    Funding decisions at Creative Australia are based on two key principles: peer review, and arm’s length funding.

    Peer review means decisions on who is funded are made by artists and arts workers with a deep understanding of the artform at hand.

    Arm’s length funding means that, while the government funds Creative Australia, artists are supported free from direct political intervention.

    The Australia Council, established in 1975, was originally structured around several artform boards, made up of peers from each of the artform sectors. These peers were given the task of overseeing their artforms and making funding decisions. Peers were selected by the government, usually after nomination by the Australia Council, and served terms of between two to five years.

    Membership of an artform board was seen as an honour as well as a duty by those selected: a way of influencing funding decisions, but also a way of giving back to the sector.

    As a result of an internal review in 2012, the process of peer decision making changed dramatically. The Australia Council in 2013 removed the artform boards (with a couple of exceptions) and introduced an ad hoc peer system where individuals were asked to self-nominate if they wanted to be part of the selection process. Staff then chose individuals, from a large pool of peers, to sit on a panel for each funding round.

    As a result of the 2013 reforms the relationship with the minister for the arts was also changed. Up till then, the minister only had the power to appoint the members of the Australia Council board and the members of the various artform boards. In 2013 the act was changed so the minister could also give policy direction to the Australia Council.

    In 2019, another category of selector was introduced. Industry advisors advise on multi-year funded applications, with the final decision made by Creative Australia staff.

    The changing make-up of decision makers

    The membership of the Australia Council’s governing board was historically more politicised, but its members were also often leading figures in the field.

    The chair position was usually a leading figure from the arts and cultural field, including writers Donald Horne, Rodney Hall and Hilary McPhee, and music specialist Margaret Seares.

    In the 2000s this changed under the Howard government, with the re-framing of the arts as businesses. This led to the appointment of business-people onto the board, particularly as chairs. Chairs this century have included business leaders David Gonski, James Strong, Rupert Myer and now Robert Morgan.

    This meant priorities other than artform quality were introduced into the overall decision making.

    The Venice Biennale process

    Australia has been participating in the Venice Biennale since 1954.

    Until 2019 there was a commissioner responsible for the selection of the Australian artist. The role was occupied by notable individuals in the arts world, such as philanthropist and art collector Simon Mordant. Artists would be individually invited by the commissioner to be the Venice representative.

    In 2019 the Australia Council took over the role, and the process changed to an application system where artists were assessed by a panel of experts, before the final representatives (such as Sabsabi and Dagostino for 2026) were selected from a shortlist of six.

    While all of the details of what happened in the lead up to rescinding Sabsabi’s invitation are unknown, some facts have been laid out: The Australian published an article criticising his selection; Coalition arts spokesperson Claire Chandler asked about his selection in Question Time; and Arts Minister Tony Burke phoned Creative Australia CEO Adrian Collette.

    That night, Collette and the board decided Sabsabi’s invitation would be rescinded.

    Who gets a say in the arts?

    It seems now the funding model that Australia has created for the arts may no longer be serving the artists. The board’s decision following Burke’s phone call to Collette calls into question the principles of peer review and arm’s length funding.

    The structure and decision-making processes of Creative Australia should now be reviewed as a matter of urgency. The peer system works remarkably well if structured appropriately. At present it would seem it is not.

    Artists deserve a body that defends their rights, so they are not sacrificed for political needs.

    Jo Caust has previously received funding from the Australia Council. She is a member of NAVA and the Arts Industry Council(SA). She also worked at the Australia Council in the 1980s.

    – ref. Creative Australia’s decisions should be peer reviewed and at arm’s length. Where did things go wrong? – https://theconversation.com/creative-australias-decisions-should-be-peer-reviewed-and-at-arms-length-where-did-things-go-wrong-251153

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: James Curran on Trump, Ukraine, shifting tectonic plates, and a bigger Australian defence bill

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The Trump presidency is turning much of the world order on its head. Tne United States president is arm-twisting Ukraine, playing nice with Russia, and using protection as an economic and political weapon.

    The Australian government is pessimistic about escaping American tariffs on aluminium and steel when a decision is announced next week. Meanwhile, the message from the US is clear: we need to boost defence spending.

    To discuss Trump Mark 2 on the world stage and what that means for Australia, we’re joined by James Curran, professor of modern history at the University of Sydney.

    Curran says,

    One gets the sense that we are looking at the kind of tectonic plates of world politics shifting before our very eyes.

    Trump is about might is right. He does have an expansionary view of American power in the western hemisphere if we are to judge him by his statements on the Panama Canal and Greenland. But I think more broadly, his interpretation of American power is to simply “get out of America’s way”.

    In terms of economic implications, [it’s] a confirmation that we are looking at the permanence of protectionism in the United States. This administration, along with the Biden administration and the first Trump administration, have been putting a wrecking ball through the multilateral trading system and the WTO. And that is certainly a not a good thing for free trade and for countries like Australia.

    Curran explains what America’s expectation that countries need to spend more on defence would mean for Australia,

    This has been the great concern, if you like, over a number of years – that Australia has got defence on the cheap, that it’s put so much of its national wealth into the middle class and welfare and infrastructure and developing the nation that it’s been able to rely on the American blanket of protection while it pursues its prosperity.

    So if [defence spending] is to rise to 3% [of GDP], then that’s going to mean, firstly, a concentration on what are the lower cost alternatives to defend this continent? And secondly, where will the trade offs come? What will be sacrificed from the national budget? And what political leader in this country will front the Australian people and squarely and honestly and earnestly have a conversation about these dramatic strategic circumstances and why greater sacrifice is required from Australians to enable a higher defence expenditure.

    Is the Trump world the new normal, or will this be over when Trump eventually leaves the White House?

    I’m a little bit sceptical about this idea that we grit our teeth and close our eyes and hope that the nightmare is over in four years time. There is a really big question mark over how America can snap back in terms of its institutional robustness. The pressure that the courts, the media and the Congress are under. Does this all just snap back in four years time? Do we really think that either a Republican or a Democrat successor to Trump will ride into Washington, down Pennsylvania Avenue in a glittering chariot of liberal internationalism? To say everyone shouldn’t worry because the liberal international order is back and it’s gleaming and it’s working.

    I really think this is up to America’s allies, both in Europe and in East Asia, to continue to protect as many of those rules and those institutions that have worked so well for so many of us, as much as they possibly can.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: James Curran on Trump, Ukraine, shifting tectonic plates, and a bigger Australian defence bill – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-james-curran-on-trump-ukraine-shifting-tectonic-plates-and-a-bigger-australian-defence-bill-251486

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Weakening currents in the Atlantic may mean a wetter northern Australia and drier New Zealand

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Himadri Saini, Research Associate at Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney

    Deborah Wallace Tasmanian/Shutterstock

    Europe is warmed by heat from ocean currents, which move water from the warm tropics to the colder North Atlantic. Once the warm, salty water from the tropics reach the polar region, they cool enough to sink to the depths and flow back towards the Southern Ocean.

    This enormous system of currents is known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Climate scientists are increasingly worried about the AMOC, which appears to be slowing down.

    While there’s still debate over whether the AMOC has weakened over the last decades, climate models consistently show the AMOC will significantly weaken over the coming century due to the increase in heat-trapping atmospheric greenhouse gases. As more heat stays in the system, the ocean heats up and ice melts, adding fresh water to polar oceans. The overall effect is to slow these currents. The AMOC could weaken 30% by 2060.

    A weaker AMOC would mean big changes in Europe, which benefits directly from the warmer waters it brings. But it would also change the climate in the Southern Hemisphere. Our new research shows a weakening of the AMOC would lead to a large change in rainfall patterns, leading to wetter summers in northern Australia and a drier New Zealand year-round. Indonesia and northern Papua New Guinea would also become drier.

    Running AMOC?

    In the Earth’s long history, the AMOC has gone through many periods of weakening. These were most common during ice ages, when glaciers expanded, but they also occurred during periods as warm as today.

    To reconstruct past climates, researchers use data from ice cores, marine sediment cores and speleothems (mineral deposits in caves such as flowstone and stalagmites), as well as simulations performed with climate models. These data show a weaker AMOC strongly affected the climate in the Northern Hemisphere. When flows of warmer water faltered, sea ice expanded in the North Atlantic, while Europe endured colder, drier conditions and the northern tropics became drier.

    If the AMOC weakens significantly, it will mean major change for Northern Hemisphere nations. Average temperatures could actually drop 3°C in Western Europe.

    At present, the AMOC’s flows of warmer water give European nations more pleasant climates and keeps ports ice free, while the Canadian side of the North Atlantic has a much more severe climate.

    What does it mean for the Southern Hemisphere?

    Data from ice cores and marine sediment cores also showed Antarctica and the Southern Ocean became warmer during these past AMOC weakening events. Until now, we haven’t understood what an AMOC weakening would mean for rainfall in the Australasian region.

    To find out, we ran climate model simulations with the Australian Earth system model, ACCESS-ESM1.5. Our modelling reveals a complex and regionally varied response, primarily shaped by large-scale atmospheric changes.

    As the AMOC weakens, it sets off a chain reaction in the oceans and atmosphere which alter rainfall and temperatures across Australasia.

    A weaker AMOC would affect ocean temperatures, cooling surface waters in the northern hemisphere and warming waters in the southern hemisphere. This would push the Intertropical Convergence Zone – a belt of heavy rain near the equator – further south.

    This means areas such as northern Papua New Guinea and Indonesia will get less rain, while northern Australia will cop wetter summers.

    Next, a warmer south equatorial Atlantic triggers atmospheric waves – large-scale movements of air that travel across the globe. These waves lower air pressure over northern Australia, pulling in more moisture and making summer rainfall even heavier.

    At the same time, a weaker AMOC disrupts the usual tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean dynamics, altering wind patterns and pressure systems in the Southern Hemisphere. High pressure systems shift southward, affecting storm tracks. The overall effect is fewer storms reaching southern Australia and New Zealand, leading to drier winters.

    Last, as the Atlantic currents peter out, heat builds up in Southern Hemisphere oceans rather than being carried to the poles. This results in hotter summers, particularly in southern Australia and New Zealand.

    Deluges and droughts

    It’s likely we will see these important currents weaken this century, bringing major change to both hemispheres.

    Those in Australia and New Zealand are likely to see a magnification of some existing climate shifts, such as a drier south and wetter north.

    Policymakers and resource managers need to prepare for a future where water becomes an increasingly uncertain resource.

    In the north, more rain over summer could mean a greater reliance on water storage and flood mitigation. In the south, drier conditions may force increased water use efficiency and drought planning.

    In New Zealand, a year-round drying trend could challenge farm productivity and hydropower generation. Long-term water management will be critical.

    What happens in the North Atlantic doesn’t stay there. It ripples through the atmosphere and oceans, with far-reaching consequences.

    Himadri Saini receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Laurie Menviel receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Weakening currents in the Atlantic may mean a wetter northern Australia and drier New Zealand – https://theconversation.com/weakening-currents-in-the-atlantic-may-mean-a-wetter-northern-australia-and-drier-new-zealand-248679

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia’s major sports codes are considered not-for-profits – is it time for them to pay up?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt Nichol, Lecturer in Law, CQUniversity Australia

    Not-for-profit organisations support a range of needs and activities, such as financial disadvantage, health and education.

    Governments support these entities through various measures, notably exemption from income tax and other taxes.

    Some of Australia’s major professional sports – such as the Australian Football League (AFL) and its clubs, the National Rugby League (NRL) and its clubs and Cricket Australia – are treated as not-for-profits. This means they do not pay income tax.

    Not-for-profits and charities

    The not-for-profit sector in Australia consists of about 600,000 organisations, 59,000 of which contributed $43 billion to Australia’s economy in 2010 (2010 is the most recent available data).

    Some not-for-profit organisations receive special designation as charities and must have a charitable purpose that benefits the public.

    A charity is not permitted to distribute profits to its members and must be registered with the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission.

    The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) is aware of more than 200,000 entities that receive one or more tax concessions. But only 61,010 are registered charities.

    Professinal sports and tax

    Within the regulation of not-for-profits exists professional sport.

    Sports receive an exemption from income tax if, under section 50-45 of the Income Tax Assessment Act 1997, a club or association encourages or promotes a game or sport.

    In addition, the organisation must not conduct business for the purpose of profit for members.

    The sports exemption does not differentiate between professional and community (or amateur) sport, as is the case in New Zealand, where charities and taxation law limit a sports charity to an amateur organisation.

    Therefore, major Australian professional sports are considered not-for-profits and do not pay income tax.

    None of these entities are registered charities.

    This raises questions of fairness: these organisations receive revenue that ranges from tens of millions of dollars in the case of clubs to hundreds of millions and even billions for leagues.

    When the sports exemption was introduced in the 1950s, it was designed to assist small community clubs. This might include the local golf club that operates on a public course and has operating revenue of $10,000, or the local tennis or football club with similar revenues.

    The big business of pro sports

    In recent years, the revenues of professional sport have ballooned, primarily due to lucrative broadcasting deals.

    For example, in 2023, the AFL had revenues of $1.06 billion and recently announced its 2024 profit of $45.4 million, putting it in Australia’s 30 largest charities by income.

    In 2023, the revenues of the AFL’s clubs ranged from $50.4-$105.7 million.

    The NRL earned $744.9 million in revenue in 2024.

    Also, the AFL and NRL receive a percentage of the income of betting agencies, reportedly $30 million a year for the AFL and $50 million for the NRL.

    Half of the NRL clubs are sponsored by betting companies and three NRL stadiums are named after betting agencies.

    Some non-Victorian AFL clubs, such as Brisbane and Greater Western Sydney, have gambling sponsorships, but Victorian clubs have signed up to the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation’s “Love the Game, Not the Odds” program.

    This reliance on sports betting revenues raises issues as to the public benefit of these organisations and whether they should receive tax exemptions.



    Read more:
    Will the government’s online gambling advertising legislation ever eventuate? Don’t bet on it

    The issue of unrelated business income

    The issue of unrelated business income (the income a not-for-profit earns from commercial activities not related to its charitable purpose), especially from gambling and poker machines, raises concerns.

    North Melbourne was the first Victorian AFL club to sell its poker machines in 2008. In 2016, it was the only club without pokies.

    Collingwood sold its machines in 2018 and Hawthorn sold its two poker machine venues in 2022. But Carlton, Essendon, Richmond and St Kilda earned a collective $40 million from poker machines in 2022/2023.

    The profits of poker machines by Victorian AFL clubs can be distinguished from sports clubs in New South Wales, where not less than 0.75% of poker machine profits must be distributed to charities under community development and support expenditure.

    Poker machine venues are a considerable source of revenue in the NRL. In 2021, rugby league received $9.8 million from regional licensed clubs – $7.28 million to grassroots rugby and $2.52 million to NRL clubs.

    Metropolitan venues gave $29.67 million to rugby league – $17.09 million to grassroots rugby and $12.58 million to NRL clubs.

    A possible solution

    Unrelated business income tax (UBIT) is a tax on the unrelated business income of not-for-profits. Related business income for a not-for-profit is membership fees and services directly related to the members such as restaurants or meals.

    However, the major source of unrelated business income for sports are sponsorship and income from gambling companies and poker machines.

    A UBIT has a long history in the United States and was proposed by the Gillard government in 2011, only to be postponed in 2013 and eventually abandoned by the Abbott government in 2014.

    In the context of professional sport, a UBIT would fairly treat leagues and clubs, which increasingly engage in commercial activities outside their charitable activities, with a public benefit without removing the tax exemption.

    For example, a UBIT would tax the profits of clubs with poker machines. It would also tax some of Australia’s most profitable professional sports clubs and leagues for revenue not related to promoting the sports.

    It would also help distinguish between “real” not-for-profits and professional sports.

    In doing so, it would also create a fair regulatory environment for the operation of for-profit and not-for-profit businesses.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Australia’s major sports codes are considered not-for-profits – is it time for them to pay up? – https://theconversation.com/australias-major-sports-codes-are-considered-not-for-profits-is-it-time-for-them-to-pay-up-250914

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Elon Musk thinks the US should leave the UN – what if Trump does it?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Ogden, Associate Professor in Global Studies, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Getty Images

    When Donald Trump’s benefactor and cost-cutter-in-chief Elon Musk recently supported a call for the United States to quit NATO and the United Nations, it should perhaps have been more surprising.

    But the first months of the second Trump presidency have already seen key parts of the current international order undermined. Musk’s position fits a general pattern.

    Aside from the tilt towards a multipolar world order, the US now refuses to recognise the International Criminal Court, has slashed its foreign aid contributions, and has withdrawn from the World Health Organization, the UN Human Rights Council and the Palestinian relief agency UNRWA.

    With Trump’s domestic politics displaying a clear autocratic edge, the rejection of the founding principles and ideals of the UN comes into sharper relief. The intolerant and impatient negotiating approach he displayed with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky also belies a disregard for cooperative and consensus-based diplomacy.

    The drive to slash the federal deficit dovetails with this general abandonment of expensive international commitments. If the Trump regime follows through on its apparent strategy of manufacturing crises to advance its agenda, then leaving the UN entirely is a logical next step.

    Undermined ideals

    This is all in stark contrast to the central role the UN has traditionally played within the US-led international order since 1945.

    Along with other institutions, the UN allowed the US to shape the international system in its own image and spread its domestic values and interests across the world. Along with NATO, the UN was designed as a global security institution to produce global stability.

    In theory at least, the political and economic values of the US and other democracies enabled the construction of the postwar order. According to political scientist John Ikenberry, this was based on “multilateralism, alliance partnerships, strategic restraint, cooperative security, and institutional and rule-based relationships”.

    But by the 21st century, US actions had undermined many of these principles. The US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 bypassed the authority of the UN, causing then secretary-general Kofi Annan to declare that “from the charter point of view [the invasion] was illegal”.

    This undermined the legitimacy of the UN and America’s place within it. But it also diminished the organisation as a force for maintaining international security and national sovereignty in global affairs.

    The subsequent human rights violations by the US through its use of rendition, torture and detention at facilities such as Guantanamo Bay and Abu Ghraib further weakened the UN’s credibility as a protector of liberal international values.

    The US has also been a regular non-payer of UN fees, owing US$2.8 billion in early 2025. And it is one of the lowest contribtuors of military and police personnel to UN peacekeeping operations, despite paying nearly 27% of the overall budget.

    US versus UN

    Since the 1990s, several Republican politicians have argued for the US to withdraw entirely from the UN. In 1997, senator Ron Paul introduced the American Sovereignty Restoration Act, aimed at ending UN membership, expelling the UN headquarters from New York and ending US funding.

    Although it received minimal support and never reached committee hearings, Paul reintroduced the act in every congressional session until his 2011 retirement. It was then taken up by other Republicans, including Paul Broun and Mike Rogers.

    In December 2023, senator Mike Lee and representative Chip Roy led the introduction of the “Disengaging Entirely from the United Nations Debacle (DEFUND) Act”.

    Roy referenced the perceived negative treatment of Israel, the promotion of China, “the propagation of climate hysteria” and the US$12.5 billion in annual payments. Lee added:

    Americans’ hard-earned dollars have been funnelled into initiatives that fly in the face of our values – enabling tyrants, betraying allies, and spreading bigotry.

    Public polling in 2024 also showed only 52% of Americans had a favourable view of the UN. This opposition has deeper historical roots, too.

    In 1920, US isolationists blocked the ratification of the Treaty of Versailles, and with it US participation in the League of Nations (the predecessor to the United Nations). Although the US would interact with the League of Nations until the UN’s formation in 1945, it never became an official member.

    Criticism of the UN also has a bipartisan angle, with the US withdrawing funding of UNRWA in 2024 during Joe Biden’s presidency after Israel accused the agency of links to Hamas.

    A diminished UN

    If Trump harnesses these historical and modern forces to pull the US out of the UN, it would fundamentally – and likely irrevocably – undermine what has been a central pillar of the current international order.

    It would also increase US isolationism, reduce Western influence, and legitimise alternative security bodies. These include the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which the US could potentially join, especially given Russia and India are both members.

    More broadly, the reduced influence of the UN will endanger general peace and security in the international sphere, and the wider protection and promotion of human rights.

    There would be greater unpredictability in global affairs, and the world would be a more dangerous place. For countries big and small, a UN without the US will force new strategic calculations and create new alliances and blocs, as the world leaps into the unknown.

    Chris Ogden is a Senior Research Fellow with The Foreign Policy Centre, London.

    – ref. Elon Musk thinks the US should leave the UN – what if Trump does it? – https://theconversation.com/elon-musk-thinks-the-us-should-leave-the-un-what-if-trump-does-it-251483

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ending US birthright citizenship could have consequences for LGBTQ+ couples, lower-income parents and the surrogacy market

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Ashley Mantha-Hollands, Max Weber Fellow, Max Weber Programme for Postdoctoral Studies, European University Institute

    The first month of US President Donald Trump’s second term saw an onslaught of executive orders. The order aiming to change how birthright citizenship – the constitutional guarantee of citizenship to most children born within US territory – is granted could be the most consequential. Federal judges in Maryland, Washington state, Massachusetts and New Hampshire have issued nationwide injunctions against the order, and the San Francisco-based US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit rejected the Trump administration’s appeal.

    To date, most media outlets, civil and human rights organisations, and activist groups have expressed concern about how a change to birthright citizenship would impact undocumented people and their children. However, a change could also have a series of further consequences, particularly for children of LGBTQ+ couples and children born through assisted reproductive technologies (ART) such as surrogacy.

    There are at least three related outcomes to consider: tension between federal and state definitions of parentage, a heightened administrative burden for establishing proof of citizenship, and the potential harm to what is the world’s largest surrogacy market.

    Who are the parents? Not so simple

    In countries where children obtain citizenship based on the citizenship of their parents, the legal parameters of the family are of utmost importance. For this reason, countries often provide specific definitions of who “counts” as a parent. In the US, this responsibility falls to the states, which provide their own definitions. One common practice is known as the “parturient” rule, which holds that the person giving birth is the legal “mother” and her spouse the legal “father”. This practice is increasingly contested. With the rise of ART and, in particular, surrogacy, the person giving birth is not always the intended parent. In fact, at least 14 US states have recognized that the parturient rule does not encompass many types of family arrangements and have altered their administrative frameworks so that “intended parents” can be immediately placed on birth certificates.

    While the establishment of parentage occurs at the state level, establishing citizenship is a federal responsibility. As a result, the federal government also provides its own legal definition of parenthood. This definition includes the following family roles: a genetic parent, a non-genetic gestational parent, a non-genetic and non-gestational spouse of a genetic and/or gestational parent, and parents of an adopted child. By contrast, the definitions in Trump’s executive order would spark a return to traditional heteronormative definitions of parentage. The mother is defined as “the immediate female biological progenitor” and the father as “the immediate male biological progenitor”. Such definitions leave out not only most LGBTQ+ couples, but also some families seeking ART, because children born through these modalities may not be biologically related to the intended parents.

    If the order comes into force, it would result in a mismatch between federal and state definitions of parentage and likely invite many legal disputes, while leaving some children born through ART at risk of statelessness if their parents are unrecognized as such. Citizenship is vital to an individual’s personal security: stateless children can, in some cases, be separated from their intended parents. Moreover, without a legal status, children and their families cannot benefit from the full range of federal and state services, including access to the child welfare system, funding opportunities for higher education and health care. For example, according to officials in 24 states, children would lose benefits from the Children’s Health Insurance Program and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which all US-born babies are currently eligible to receive.

    The bureaucratic burden

    The administrative burden of citizenship recognition for newborns is another overlooked issue in discussions about Trump’s order. In most cases, a birth certificate from a US state is sufficient to prove one’s citizenship status. After a child is born, hospitals normally transmit birth-certified information to the local municipality. The child’s birth certificate is then issued three-to-five business days later. The certificate suffices for recognition of citizenship and for federal documentation such as a passport.

    The executive order would increase the administrative burden for recognising citizenship. It is unclear, however, whether this burden would fall on the states or the federal government.

    In the first scenario, state bureaucracies would need to check the parents’ immigration status prior to issuing a birth certificate. This would undoubtedly cause confusion, as each state would need to provide new guidance and training to local bureaucrats on the medley of US immigration statuses and their attendant rights. The processing times for issuing birth certificates would increase, as verification procedures would require additional documentation. The fees for issuing certificates, currently between $7 and $35, would likely rise as well, since bureaucrats would need to investigate each birth rather than issue certificates automatically.

    If the administrative burden falls on the federal government, birth certificates would be issued in the same way and at the same cost by the states, but they would no longer be sufficient to prove a child’s citizenship. In this case, the government would need to issue citizenship certificates, which are normally reserved for proof of citizenship for children born abroad. Each case would require an individual investigation rather than being automatic, and while it’s hard to say how much fees could rise, current fees for citizenship certificates for children born abroad are north of $1,300. The processing of passport applications would take longer and likely be more costly, too, because a system to verify the immigration status of a child’s parents will need to be set up.

    In 2012, the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) released a report that outlined the potential impacts of ending the current approach to birthright citizenship. The report estimates, based on the costs of US citizenship certificates for children born abroad, that changing the existing law – which Trump’s order seeks to reinterpret – would cost parents “approximately $600 in government fees to prove the citizenship status of each baby and likely an additional $600 to $1,000 in legal fees”. The report describes these costs as a “tax” on “each baby born in the United States”.

    Alternately, the US could establish a new national ID card system, but this would also have bureaucratic costs. This type of ID card is common in European countries: with some variation between systems, cards can be used for travel within the EU (as an alternative to a passport) and are generally used to prove citizenship status to vote or receive certain social services. But unlike in the European states that issue these cards, the US government has no registry of vital records and would need a new administrative structure to create one. When the UK government discussed such a system in 2007, its total cost was estimated to be at least 5.75 billion pounds.

    The NFAP report mentions the federal systems that rely on the current practice of state-administered birth certificates and automatic citizenship to function. These systems include the Social Security Administration, which handles retirement, disability and family benefits, and the E-Verify system, which determines whether a person has authorisation to work in the US. The report states that systems such as E-Verify “have cost the American taxpayer billions of dollars. There is no reason to believe that a change to the Citizenship Clause requiring the verification of parents’ immigration status would be any less expensive.”

    Costs to the US surrogacy market

    The US surrogacy industry is the largest in the world. It is valued at over $20 billion (and is expected to grow to $195 billion by 2034), and attracts families from European and Asian countries where surrogacy is not as prevalent or is illegal. An important factor in the size of this market is the attractive environment for surrogacy arrangements. First, surrogacy is relatively mainstreamed in the US, and there are many companies that help with finding donors, surrogates and with navigating the legal process. Second, intended parents have the security of knowing their children will have immediate access to travel documents, such as a US passport, after birth. If a new definition of parentage goes into effect, thus removing the guarantee of US citizenship, the status of children born through surrogacy could be at risk. The attractiveness of the US surrogacy market would likely suffer, because parents would face time-consuming and costly steps to secure status and immigration documents to allow travel between the US and their home country.

    An unclear fate

    The approach to parenthood in the executive order on birthright citizenship aligns with the Trump administration’s overall push toward pronatalism and traditional heterosexual family models. Trump has also signed another executive order expanding access to in vitro fertilization (IVF) for “longing mothers and fathers”. The definition of parentage in this order also leaves out same-sex couples, who often receive IVF treatments.

    The fate of the birthright citizenship order is unclear, and it will likely end up reaching the Supreme Court. Legal debates must include the constitutionality of denying automatic citizenship to US-born children, the effect on children born via assisted reproductive technologies, and the bureaucratic and financial burdens placed on states and parents. While an end to birthright citizenship would immediately affect the children of undocumented people, taking a step back reveals other consequences that could impact the broader US public for generations to come.

    Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

    – ref. Ending US birthright citizenship could have consequences for LGBTQ+ couples, lower-income parents and the surrogacy market – https://theconversation.com/ending-us-birthright-citizenship-could-have-consequences-for-lgbtq-couples-lower-income-parents-and-the-surrogacy-market-250846

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Investors value green labels — but not always for the right reasons

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Vasundhara Saravade, Postdoctoral Fellow, Institute of the Environment, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

    Imagine you are choosing between two similar investment options. One has a green label, promising to fund climate-friendly projects and assets. The other offers a slightly higher return, but has no green label. Which do you choose?

    My recent study explored this question. My co-researchers and I found that, for most retail investors — individual, non-professional investors — the presence of a green label mattered more than the actual environmental impact of the bond or the higher financial return of a non-green option.

    This finding raises critical questions about how sustainable finance is marketed and whether green labels alone are enough to drive real environmental change.

    Green bonds and retail investors

    Green bonds are a financial tool designed to fund environmentally friendly projects. Institutional investors and governments have embraced them, but their adoption by everyday retail investors remains low.

    The Canadian market was one of the first to provide access to retail-level green bonds, but demand for such bonds was always oversubscribed. Low interest rates made it difficult to balance investor returns with lending profits. This imbalance squeezed sustainable investment firms like CoPower, which ultimately led to its green bond model winding down.

    With the urgent need to attract capital for climate financing, the role of retail investors is now a key topic of discussion. In 2021, these investors accounted for 52 per cent of global assets under management in 2021 — a figure expected to jump to nearly 61 per cent by 2030. This presents a massive opportunity to mobilize private capital toward sustainable finance.

    However, before retail investors venture into the green bond market, the sustainable finance sector must address a key question: do people invest in green bonds because they believe in their environmental benefits or simply because of the “green” label?

    And, more importantly, does the green label alone persuade retail investors to accept a “greenium” — choosing a lower-return green bond over a higher-return non-green bond — like professional investors do?

    The ‘green-label effect’ is real

    To determine this, my co-researchers and I conducted an experiment with over 1,000 self-identified retail investors to see how different framing techniques — such as labels, environmental impact and reporting descriptions — shaped their willingness to invest in green bonds.

    Our study identified a “green label effect.” Most retail investors relied on green labels as a shortcut to save time and avoid having to evaluate the environmental impact of a bond. Investors often relied on simplified decision cues like labels and financial returns to navigate complex financial information.



    Read more:
    Sustainable finance: Canada risks being left behind in low-carbon economy

    However, a small subset of environmentally conscious investors researched the validity of green bonds and aligned their investments with their values, even at the cost of lower returns.

    This highlights the need for green bonds that offer a competitive return, given that a majority still invest based on financial returns in addition to labelling. Labelling alone is not enough to drive mainstream retail investment in sustainable finance.

    Our study also found that certain types of personal characteristics made people more likely to invest in labelled green bonds, even if those bonds had the lowest financial returns. Investors with a high-risk tolerance were more likely to invest in green bonds.

    Additionally, previous investment experience played a role. Those who had moderately invested in stocks, had none to high levels of experience investing in bonds.

    The greenwashing challenge

    Our findings highlight both the potential and pitfalls of sustainable finance. The popularity of green-labelled bonds suggests that retail investors are open to sustainable investment and would help to drive growth in this market considerably.

    However, the fact that many choose labels without finding out whether the bond is actually green raises concerns about greenwashing. This practice occurs when companies exploit sustainability branding and use green labels on non-green bonds to avoid delivering environmental impact.

    If investors rely too much on green labels without verifying the actual impact of their investments, they may inadvertently support projects that fail to make a meaningful difference.

    As green finance regulations evolve, governments must strengthen labelling standards and transparency. This would ensure that labelled green bonds deliver on their promises.

    Stronger green taxonomies and consumer oversight mechanisms would help prevent misleading claims, protect investors and ensure sustainable finance can scale quickly. Without these safeguards, green bonds could lose credibility and fail to scale effectively.

    What should policymakers do?

    To expand the green bond market and align it with Canada’s climate goals, policymakers could introduce tax-free government green bonds or green infrastructure bonds. These would incentivize retail investors and raise their awareness of sustainable finance.

    Policymakers could allow banks to add green bonds to registered products like tax-free savings accounts or registered retirement savings plans. They could create new green registered products that would encourage individual-level savings and investment, like the first home savings account.

    Making verified climate-related financial disclosures easier to use could help retail investors better understand the impact of green products. This would reduce reliance on labels alone and encourage more informed decision-making.

    Green bonds have the potential to be a powerful tool in the fight against climate change, but only if they’re backed by real accountability. As our study shows, labels matter a lot — but what’s behind them matters most.

    Vasundhara Saravade is affiliated with the Smart Prosperity Institute.

    – ref. Investors value green labels — but not always for the right reasons – https://theconversation.com/investors-value-green-labels-but-not-always-for-the-right-reasons-251021

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Are our thoughts ‘real’? Here’s what philosophy says

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sam Baron, Associate Professor, Philosophy of Science, The University of Melbourne

    Shutterstock

    You can doubt just about anything. But there’s one thing you can know for sure: you are having thoughts right now.

    This idea came to characterise the philosophical thinking of 17th century philosopher René Descartes. For Descartes, that we have thoughts may be the only thing we can be certain about.

    But what exactly are thoughts? This is a mystery that has long troubled philosophers such as Descartes – and which has been given new life by the rise of artificial intelligence, as experts try to figure out whether machines can genuinely think.

    Known for his proposition ‘cogito, ergo sum’ (‘I think, therefore I am’), Rene Descartes (1596-1650) was a leading figure in early modern philosophy and science.
    Wikimedia

    Two schools of thought

    There are two main answers to the philosophical question of what thoughts are.

    The first is that thoughts might be material things. Thoughts are just like atoms, particles, cats, clouds and raindrops: part and parcel of the physical universe. This position is known as physicalism or materialism.

    The second view is that thoughts might stand apart from the physical world. They are not like atoms, but are an entirely distinct type of thing. This view is called dualism, because it takes the world to have a dual nature: mental and physical.

    To better understand the difference between these views, consider a thought experiment.

    Suppose God is building the world from scratch. If physicalism is true, then all God needs to do to produce thoughts is build the basic physical components of reality – the fundamental particles – and put in place the laws of nature. Thoughts should follow.

    However, if dualism is true, then putting in place the basic laws and physical components of reality will not produce thoughts. Some non-physical aspects of reality will need to be added, as thoughts are something over and above all physical components.

    Why be a materialist?

    If thoughts are physical, what physical things are they? One plausible answer is they are brain states.

    This answer underpins much of contemporary neuroscience and psychology. Indeed, it is the apparent link between brains and thoughts that makes materialism seem plausible.

    There are many correlations between our brain states and our thoughts. Certain parts of the brain predictably “light up” when someone is in pain, or if they think about the past or future.

    The hippocampus, located near the brain stem, appears to be linked to imaginative and creative thought, while the Broca’s area in the left hemisphere appears to be linked to speech and language.

    What explains these correlations? One answer is that our thoughts just are varying states of the brain. This answer, if correct, speaks in favour of materialism.

    Why be a dualist?

    That said, the correlations between brain states and thoughts are just that: correlations. We don’t have an explanation of how brain states – or any physical states for that matter – give rise to conscious thought.

    There is a well-known correlation between striking a match and the match lighting. But in addition to the correlation, we also have an explanation for why the match is lit when struck. The friction causes a chemical reaction in the match head, which leads to a release of energy.

    We have no comparable explanation for a link between thoughts and brain states. After all, there seem to be many physical things that don’t have thoughts. We have no idea why brain states give rise to thoughts and chairs don’t.

    Scans can show when and where our brains ‘light up’, but a clear connection between thoughts and brain states eludes us.
    Shutterstock

    The colour scientist

    The thing we are most certain about – that we have thoughts – is still completely unexplained in physical terms. That’s not for a lack of effort. Neuroscience, philosophy, cognitive science and psychology have all been hard at work trying to crack this mystery.

    But it gets worse: we may never be able to explain how thoughts arise from neural states. To understand why, consider this famous thought experiment by Australian philosopher Frank Jackson.

    Mary lives her entire life in a black-and-white room. She has never experienced colour. However, she also has access to a computer which contains a complete account of every physical aspect of the universe, including all the physical and neurological details of experiencing colour. She learns all of this.

    One day, Mary leaves the room and experiences colour for the first time. Does she learn anything new?

    It is very tempting to think she does: she learns what it’s like to experience colour. But remember, Mary already knew every physical fact about the universe. So if she learns something new, it must be some non-physical fact. Moreover, the fact she learns comes through experience, which means there must be some non-physical aspect to experience.

    If you think Mary learns something new by leaving the room, you must accept dualism to be true in some form. And if that’s the case, then we can’t provide an explanation of thought in terms of the brain’s functions, or so philosophers have argued.

    Minds and machines

    Settling the question of what thoughts are won’t completely settle the question of whether machines can think, but it would help.

    If thoughts are physical, then there’s no reason, in principle, why machines couldn’t think.

    If thoughts are not physical, however, it’s less clear whether machines could think. Would it be possible to get them “hooked up” to the non-physical in the right way? This would depend on how non-physical thoughts relate to the physical world.

    Either way, pursuing the question of what thoughts are will likely have significant implications for how we think about machine intelligence, and our place in nature.

    Sam Baron receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Are our thoughts ‘real’? Here’s what philosophy says – https://theconversation.com/are-our-thoughts-real-heres-what-philosophy-says-248003

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Consumer resistance is rising in the age of Trump. History shows how boycotts can be effective

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Garritt C. Van Dyk, Senior Lecturer in History, University of Waikato

    Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

    Boycotts are back. With people worried about everything from labour practices and human rights to tariffs and equal opportunity initiatives, collective consumer resistance has been rising globally.

    Right now, there are several month-long boycotts of Target underway in the United States due to the company abandoning its diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programme. Longer boycotts of specific corporations, beginning with Amazon, are scheduled for March and April.

    Last week, the non-partisan, grassroots People’s Union USA organised a “national economic blackout” by urging consumers to avoid buying anything beyond essentials. The inaugural event was, in part, spurred by anger at government cuts being made in the US by President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, with organisers saying:

    Our strength lies in economic power. If corporations control politicians through money, then we control corporations by withholding ours. Targeted boycotts, economic blackouts, and financial pressure will make them listen.

    More widely, the Palestinian-led Boycott, Divestiture, and Sanction (BDS) campaign against Israeli goods and companies has been operating for years now. And anti-American boycotts are underway in Canada as increased tariffs take effect .

    As these campaigns gain momentum, some consumers will question how effective boycotts are at changing corporate behaviour. But there is a long history of ordinary citizens successfully “voting with their wallets”, even before the term “boycott” was coined.

    Origins of the boycott

    In 1792, a British campaign to stop buying sugar produced by enslaved Africans in the West Indies began. This originated in the American colonies with Quakers rejecting sugar in the 1750s. They viewed enslaved Africans as stolen people, and therefore slave products as stolen goods.

    In Britain, the abolitionist movement appealed to women as household managers to give up slave products and sign a petition to end slavery. The power of this ethical consumerism gave women, not yet allowed to vote, a voice to parliament and a tangible way to participate in the cause.

    The word “boycott” itself originated during the 1880 Irish Land Wars, and referred to the resistance to English land agent and former army officer Captain Charles Boycott. Tenants of the absentee landlord he represented complained he “treated his cattle better than he did us”.

    Protests outside the gates of Captain Boycott’s residence during the Land League boycott in Ireland in 1880.
    Hulton Archive/Getty Images

    After Boycott imposed fines and employed police to attempt evictions, the Irish Land League responded with a campaign to ostracise him. Crowds intimidated workers so his crops would not be harvested, local shops refused to sell to him, and the post boy was threatened to stop deliveries.

    The parish priest, Father John O’Malley, adopted the term “boycott” for this collective action because he thought the County Mayo locals wouldn’t remember the word “ostracise”. Boycott was forced to flee Ireland, and the new term spread across the country.

    Some 75 years later, across the Atlantic, Rosa Parks was arrested for refusing to give up her seat to a white woman, as required by Alabama’s racial segregation laws. In 1955, the Montgomery Improvement Association organised a 13-month long boycott of the city’s buses, led by Martin Luther King Jr.

    African-Americans, who made up 75% of passengers, refused to ride the buses. In 1956, the US Supreme Court ruled segregated public buses were unconstitutional.

    American civil rights activist Rosa Parks sparked the 381 day Montgomery bus boycott, part of the wider civil rights movement in the US.
    Underwood Archives/Getty Images

    Can boycotts work in the 21st century?

    Boycotts are not the exclusive province of progressive activists. Across the political spectrum, the rejection of brands because of corporate behaviour has had moments of significant traction.

    In 2023, beer company Bud Light collaborated with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney as a brand ambassador. A backlash from conservative consumers saw the boycott cost parent company Anheuser-Busch Inbev an estimated US$1 billion.

    Bud Light also lost is status as the best-selling beer in the US to Mexican import Modelo. The brand then tried to back away from its marketing strategy, which only alienated the LGBTQIA+ community.

    Broad campaigns, such as the historical ones mentioned here, can be successful. But specifically targeted boycotts tend to be more effective in attracting media attention and sustaining momentum in the modern consumer age.

    This is especially true if consumers have a wide range of alternative goods or outlets that make it easier to avoid a brand or retailer.

    The most recent economic data show US consumer confidence is faltering, with its biggest drop since the summer of 2021. Inflation and the potential impact of a trade war are dampening retail sentiment.

    This fragile economic environment may amplify the effects of boycotts, if not in terms of profit, then in terms of brand reputation. As messaging becomes more common in the news and on social media, the current consumer boycotts in the US will be a test of how effective the strategy still is.

    Garritt C. Van Dyk has received funding from the Getty Research Institute.

    – ref. Consumer resistance is rising in the age of Trump. History shows how boycotts can be effective – https://theconversation.com/consumer-resistance-is-rising-in-the-age-of-trump-history-shows-how-boycotts-can-be-effective-251448

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Hot frogs and sizzling salamanders: climate change is pushing amphibians to their limits

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Patrice Pottier, Postdoctoral researcher in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, UNSW Sydney

    Wirestock Creators, Shutterstock

    Frogs and other amphibians rely on the surrounding environment to regulate their body temperature. On hot days they might seek shade, water or cool spaces underground. But what if everywhere is too hot?

    There is a limit to how much heat amphibians can tolerate. My colleagues and I wanted to work out how close amphibians are to reaching these limits, globally.

    Our new research, published today in Nature, shows 2% of the world’s amphibians are already overheating. Even when they have access to shade and moisture, more than 100 species are struggling to maintain a viable body temperature.

    If global temperatures rise by 4°C, nearly 400 species (or 1 in 13 amphibians) could be pushed to their limits. However, this assumes access to shade and water, so it’s probably an underestimate. Habitat loss, drought and disease will likely make even more amphibians vulnerable to heat stress.

    Here is why that matters — and what we can do about it.

    Finding the missing pieces of the puzzle

    The critical thermal maximum is the temperature beyond which an ectothermic (“cold-blooded”) species simply cannot function.

    In laboratory experiments, it is defined as the temperature that renders the frog or salamander unable to right themselves when flipped on their back, or when they start having muscular spasms.

    At this temperature, they are incapacitated and unable to escape. If amphibians stay under those conditions for extended periods, they will eventually die.

    First, we searched the scientific literature for data on heat tolerance in amphibians and compiled a database. This database covers more than 600 species, but that’s only 7.5% of amphibians on Earth. Knowledge of the heat tolerance of amphibians from tropical regions and the Global South is especially sparse.

    To build a global picture, we needed to fill those gaps. We used statistical models to predict the heat tolerance of species missing from the database.

    Think of it like solving a puzzle: if a piece is missing, we can make an educated guess of what it looks like, based on the pieces around it.

    By using what we know about a species’ biology and how its relatives cope with heat, we can predict how much heat it is likely to tolerate. With this approach, we estimated heat tolerance limits for more than 5,000 amphibian species — around 60% of all known species.

    We then compared each species’ tolerance limits to temperatures experienced over the past decade, as well as future conditions under different climate scenarios. That allowed us to see which species could be pushed over the edge by extreme heat events.

    Frogs face an uncertain future as the world warms.
    Artush, Shutterstock

    Intensifying threats

    We found 2% of amphibians (about 100 species) are probably already overheating. This is an optimistic scenario, assuming they always have access to shaded and humid conditions. In reality, many amphibians live in disturbed habitats, where shade and water are in short supply.

    If global temperatures rise by 4°C, the number of vulnerable species jumps from 2% to about 7.5%. That’s nearly a fourfold increase, meaning almost 400 species — 1 in 13 amphibians — could be pushed to their heat tolerance limits.

    We also found some interesting regional patterns. In the southern hemisphere, tropical species are most exposed to overheating. However, in the northern hemisphere, species outside the tropics often face higher risk. This underscores how local temperatures and species-specific tolerance limits matter more than just the distance from the equator, challenging common assumptions about the greater vulnerability of tropical species.

    Local extinctions — where a species can no longer survive in a particular area — may occur if extreme heat events become too frequent. Amphibians often cannot just hop to cooler places. Many cannot relocate to different areas because they depend on specific wetlands, steams and ponds to breed and feed. If these habitats disappear or become too hot, some amphibians may have nowhere else to go.

    Cooling off in a stream won’t always work.
    Rejdan, Shutterstock

    Thermal refuges

    Dense vegetation and reliable water sources act like natural air conditioners for amphibians. Our results show that if amphibians can stay hydrated and cool, many can survive heatwaves. Yet climate change is rapidly making these moist refuges more scarce.

    With increasing deforestation, habitat disturbance, and droughts, amphibians are losing their ability to cope with the heat. Active efforts to protect, restore, and connect forested areas and wetlands are increasingly needed to boost their chances of survival.

    Cutting greenhouse gas emissions is also crucial. It’s clear every fraction of a degree counts. Keeping climate warming as low as possible will reduce the risk of sudden, widespread overheating events, not only for amphibians but also for countless other species.

    Time to act

    More than 40% of all amphibians are already threatened with extinction, making them especially vulnerable to climate change.

    But if we protect and restore forests, wetlands, ponds, and streams — and reduce carbon emissions — many species may stand a chance.

    More research on amphibians is needed. Our statistical models help us predict which species are most at risk, but these predictions cannot replace on-the-ground research.

    By studying these species directly, we can better understand the threats they face and optimise conservation efforts. This is particularly needed in the lesser-studied areas of South America, Africa and Asia.

    Amphibians have been around for millions of years. They are part of our cultural heritage and play vital roles in balancing ecosystems. Let’s not lose them to a climate crisis we hopefully still have time to fix.

    Patrice Pottier works as a postdoctoral researcher for The University of New South Wales, Sydney. This research was funded by a UNSW Scientia PhD scholarship. Patrice Pottier is also a board member of the Society for Open, Reliable, and Transparent Ecology and Evolutionary biology (SORTEE).

    – ref. Hot frogs and sizzling salamanders: climate change is pushing amphibians to their limits – https://theconversation.com/hot-frogs-and-sizzling-salamanders-climate-change-is-pushing-amphibians-to-their-limits-250653

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 50 new urgent care clinics are on the cards. But are the existing ones working? Here’s what we know so far

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Henry Cutler, Professor and Director, Macquarie University Centre for the Health Economy, Macquarie University

    Over the weekend the Australian government announced A$644 million to build an extra 50 Medicare urgent care clinics around Australia. This is on top of nearly $600 million previously committed to establish 87 clinics.

    Once these 50 new clinics open in the 2025–26 financial year, the government says four in five Australians will live within a 20 minute drive to a clinic. While this seems like a worthy pursuit, the question is whether they are worth the taxpayer dollar, when we already have GPs and emergency departments.

    So what does the evidence say? Are urgent care clinics worth the money?

    Remind me, what are urgent care clinics?

    Urgent care clinics provide bulk-billed care for urgent but not life-threatening conditions, seven days a week for extended business hours. No appointment is necessary and anyone with a Medicare card can walk in and receive care. You can search online for your closest clinic.

    Clinics are staffed by GPs and nurses. They treat people who perhaps don’t want to wait for a GP appointment, attend an emergency department or call healthdirect. Injuries and illnesses treated include minor infections and cuts, minor sports injuries and respiratory illness.

    Patients may benefit from urgent care clinics through quicker access to care and lower costs if they would not otherwise be bulk billed.

    They don’t however get to see their regular GP, which may reduce the appeal for patients who value continuity of care, such as those with chronic or mental health conditions.

    Why were they introduced?

    The Australian health-care system faces significant pressures as chronic disease increases, our population ages, and our health-care workforce remains stretched.

    Long emergency department waiting times and ambulance ramping (when an emergency department is too full to accept patients delivered by ambulance) are common across Australia.

    Meanwhile, access to GP bulk-billing services has declined. The government is trying to address this by paying GPs billions more to reduce costs for patients.

    Medicare urgent care clinics were introduced to reduce workload pressure on GPs, take pressure off public hospital emergency departments, and improve access to affordable primary care.

    They were first announced by the Labor Party in 2022 when in opposition. Labor wanted to build its reputation as being “Medicare’s guardian”, a theme continued in the lead up to this next federal election.

    Is there any evidence they work?

    Medicare urgent care clinics were first established less than two years ago. While some states had already introduced these types of clinics, it will take time for Medicare urgent care clinics to embed themselves into the health-care system and for patients to become familiar with them.

    Cost and waiting times are significant factors for people choosing between primary care, urgent care clinics and the emergency department.

    Around 19% of people visited an emergency department in 2022–23 because the GP was not available when required.

    Research suggests many people may have used urgent care clinics to avoid GP co-payments, and many may have used them because waiting times to see a GP were too long.

    People might visit urgent care clinics because the wait to see a GP is too long.
    Irina Mikhailichenko/Shutterstock

    The Albanese government reported there had been one million visits to urgent care clinics as of December 2024 (about 1.5 years after they first opened). While this may seem impressive, it should be viewed in the context of emergency department presentations. There were 9 million of those in 2023–24.

    Direct evidence on whether Medicare urgent care clinics are taking pressure off emergency departments does not yet exist. While research from the United States suggests these types of clinics reduce emergency department presentations, the effects won’t necessarily be the same in Australia.

    The amount of time patients spend in emergency departments continues to rise across Australia.

    Many patients will still use emergency departments despite access to clinics. Around 40% of emergency department presentations address an ailment that an urgent care clinic may handle, but only 16% of people who attend an emergency department think their care could have been delivered by a GP.

    How can we improve their chance of success?

    We need targeted public messaging to make sure patients understand how and when to best use urgent care clinics.

    If we channel minor injuries and illness after hours into an urgent care clinic, rather than funding multiple after hours general practices to remain open, we could reduce health system costs. That is because the cost per patient will go down as the number of patients treated within a clinic increases.

    None of this will work unless we have enough health workers to staff these clinics. Currently there are shortages of GPs and nurses, so urgent care clinics are competing with general practices for their workforce.

    These workforce shortages are less than ideal and could increase GP waiting times or reduce the viability of urgent care clinics. The Mount Gambier urgent care clinic recently went into liquidation amid staff shortages.

    The government has announced additional funding to train more GPs and nurses. Workforce investment is crucial to meet increasing demands, but will take time.

    To the future

    The government has committed more than $1 billion to urgent care clinics to date. Understanding whether urgent care clinics substitute for GP or emergency department presentations, or merely provide additional health-care access, is vital to their success. We need comprehensive and long-term evaluations to fully understand the extent to which urgent care clinics meet their objectives.

    Henry Cutler has previously received funding from Northern Territory Health.

    – ref. 50 new urgent care clinics are on the cards. But are the existing ones working? Here’s what we know so far – https://theconversation.com/50-new-urgent-care-clinics-are-on-the-cards-but-are-the-existing-ones-working-heres-what-we-know-so-far-251261

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The US energy market has its troubles, though it may not be a ‘national emergency’

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Seth Blumsack, Professor of Energy and Environmental Economics and International Affairs, Penn State

    This Montana refinery processes crude oil imported from Canada. AP Photo/Matthew Brown

    President Donald Trump’s declaration of a “national energy emergency” on his first day in office – and which he reiterated during his address to Congress on March 4, 2025 – might have seemed to echo other national emergencies, like those presidents declared in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

    But there has never before been a national energy emergency. During the energy crises of the 1970s, President Jimmy Carter declared local or regional energy emergencies in a handful of states. These actions suspended some environmental regulations, such as air-pollution limits for coal-fired power plants, for very short periods to make sure those states’ residents had enough electricity.

    When a president declares a national emergency, he claims significant powers under the National Emergencies Act, which allow him to take steps to solve the emergency. In this situation, Trump might seek to override environmental regulations, order utility companies to buy power from particular power plants, or invoke the Defense Production Act to secure materials needed for power plant construction.

    A natural gas well pad in Washington County, Pa., is one of many sites around the nation where fracking has boosted U.S. energy production.
    Rebecca Droke/AFP via Getty Images

    Six weeks into his presidency, Trump had not taken any action to address this emergency, though during his speech to Congress he said he wants to increase drilling and build a new natural gas pipeline in Alaska. And Trump’s discussion of energy policy has not directly referred to the consumer price hikes expected as a result of the 10% tariffs he imposed on Canadian oil, gas and electricity starting on March 4, 2025.

    Critics of the president’s declaration have described it as a “giveaway” to the fossil fuel industry in the form of looser regulations and measures to make it easier to drill for oil on government-owned land. In fact, the executive order’s definition of “energy” excludes energy generated from wind and solar, as well as efforts to conserve energy – all of which were major parts of the Biden administration’s energy strategy.

    As someone who has studied energy markets for decades, I have seen several events that might qualify as energy-related emergencies, such as meltdowns at nuclear power plants around the world, shortages of electricity and natural gas, and massive power blackouts.

    But over the past 15 years, the United States has become a global energy superpower even without any emergency declarations. The advent of hydraulic fracturing unleashed a wave of oil and gas production, even as U.S. energy demand barely budged. In a time of such energy abundance, there is no clear emergency on the scale of the energy crises of the 1970s. But there are some causes for concern.

    Big increases in domestic production

    One goal Trump’s declaration sets out is to increase what the executive order calls the nation’s “energy security.” Usually that phrase refers to an ability to operate using energy produced within the U.S. rather than overseas – particularly from countries that have long-standing conflicts or disagreements with the United States.

    Based on raw numbers, however, the U.S. is already quite energy secure. In 2023, the nation produced nearly 13 million barrels of oil per day, which is more than any country has ever produced in the history of the oil business. Since 2015, when a federal ban on oil exports was lifted, the U.S. has been increasing the amount of oil it exports every year. And for the past several years, the U.S. has been the world’s leading exporter of gasoline, sending 10% of its total annual production to other countries.

    Since the start of the shale-fracking boom in the mid-2000s, U.S. production of natural gas has also been increasing. The country’s natural gas exports have also risen over the past 10 years, though they have been limited by the number of ports that can handle liquefied natural gas cargo.

    Still a net importer of oil

    The U.S. produces plenty of oil to meet its demands, but not the kinds of oil that American refineries are designed to process into useful fuels.

    Therefore, despite the increases in domestic production, the U.S. is still a net importer of crude oil. In 2023, the U.S. imported almost twice as much oil as it exported.

    And U.S. refineries’ output of gasoline and heating oil depends on imported oil. Most oil refineries in the U.S. are quite old and were engineered to process so-called “heavy” crude oil produced in countries such as Canada, which is historically the United States’ biggest source of imported oil.

    Most of the recent increase in U.S. oil production comes from hydraulic fracturing of shale and is so-called “light” crude oil. Refining light crude would require new refineries or a major reengineering of existing refineries, with new equipment, expanded capacity or both.

    Making those changes would be very expensive. So refinery owners are hesitant to make these kinds of investments because there is a risk that the investments won’t pay off. Because U.S. refineries produce so much gasoline and have limited capacity, the U.S. also continues to import some refined petroleum fuels such as jet fuel.

    A liquefied natural gas tanker ship moves toward Cameron Pass near Cameron, La.
    Washington Post via Getty Images

    A fragile power grid

    Concern over the nation’s aging electric power grid is another focus of Trump’s energy emergency declaration. Experts have been issuing warnings for years. A 2024 study on the national transmission grid commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy has concluded the U.S. needs to double the size of the grid in the next couple of decades.

    For the first time in nearly half a century, the U.S. is facing the prospect of rapidly increasing electricity demand. The demand for power has always gone up and down a bit with population and the health of the economy, but this time is different. Growth in electricity demand is now driven by the construction of massive data centers and by electrification of cars and heating and cooling systems. The Department of Energy reports that data center electricity use in particular has tripled in the past 10 years and could easily double in the next few years. At that rate, data centers could account for over 10% of all electricity demand in the country before 2030.

    The U.S. supply of power generation in many regions is not ready for this surge in demand. Many power plants – particularly the older ones and those that burn coal – have shut down in the past several years, driven by a combination of economic pressures and environmental regulations. Building new power plants in many parts of the U.S. has become bogged down in regulatory red tape, public opposition and economic uncertainty. The North American Electric Reliability Corp., which develops standards for grid reliability, has placed over half of U.S. states at some level of risk for not having enough power generation to meet anticipated future demand.

    A study has found that the nation’s electricity grid is expected to need significant investment to handle rising demand.
    Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images

    Will declaring an emergency help?

    Under Trump’s energy emergency declaration, the administration seems likely to take actions that will make it easier to drill for more oil and gas. And the federal government may also make it easier to build power plants that run on coal, natural gas and possibly nuclear fuel.

    But expanded fracking, in and of itself, will probably not address any energy security issues in the U.S., unless there are major investments in refineries to handle the increased oil production. Reducing the barriers to building power plants addresses a much more pressing problem, but the country would still need to expand the transmission grid itself, which does not get as much attention in the president’s declaration.

    Time will tell whether the energy emergency declaration will be used to solve real problems in the nation’s energy supplies, or whether it will be used to further bolster oil and gas producers that have already made the U.S. a global energy powerhouse.

    Seth Blumsack receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation, Department of Energy, NASA, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Heising Simons Foundation.

    – ref. The US energy market has its troubles, though it may not be a ‘national emergency’ – https://theconversation.com/the-us-energy-market-has-its-troubles-though-it-may-not-be-a-national-emergency-249336

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Carolina wildfires followed months of weather whiplash, from drought to hurricane-fueled floods and back to drought

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Lauren Lowman, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Wake Forest University

    A hillside burns near Tryon, N.C., on March 3, 2025. Fire season here typically starts in late March or April. Peter Zay/Anadolu via Getty Images

    Scores of wildfires broke out across North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia in early March 2025 as strong winds, abnormally dry conditions and low humidity combined to kindle and spread the flames.

    The fires followed a year of weather whiplash in the Carolinas, from a flash drought over the summer to extreme hurricane flooding in September, and then back to drought again. A storm system on March 5, 2025, was likely to douse many of the fires still burning, but the Southeast fire season is only beginning. Wake Forest University wildfire experts Lauren Lowman and Nick Corak put the fires and the region’s dry winter into context.

    Why did the Carolinas see so many wildfires?

    Most of North and South Carolina have been abnormally dry or in moderate drought since at least November 2024. Consistently dry conditions through the winter dried out vegetation, leaving fuel for wildfires.

    When the land and vegetation is this dry, all it takes is a lightning strike or a man-made fire and wind gusts to start a wildfire.

    Drought maps: North and South Carolina conditions as of Feb. 25, 2025.
    U.S. Drought Monitor

    Hurricanes did flood the region in late summer 2024, but before that, the Carolinas were experiencing a flash drought.

    Flash droughts are extreme droughts that develop rapidly due to lack of precipitation and dry conditions in the atmosphere. When the atmosphere is dry, it pulls water from the vegetation and soils, causing the surface to dry out.

    In August and September, Tropical Storm Debby and Hurricane Helene caused extensive flooding in the two states, but the Carolinas received little rainfall in the months that followed, leaving winter 2025 abnormally dry again.

    How unusual are fires like this in the region?

    Fires are historically fairly common in the Carolinas. They’re a natural part of the landscape, and many ecosystems have evolved to depend on them.

    Carnivorous plants such as Venus flytraps and pitcher plants rely on frequent fire activity to remove shrubs and other plants that would grow over them and block the light. Even some wildlife depend on fire for their habitats and for food from the mix of native plants that regrow after a fire.

    The expected return periods for wildfires – how often fires have historically burned in a region – range from one to 10 years for the Piedmont and Coastal Plains in the east and 10 to 40 years in the Appalachian Mountains. However, many unplanned fires today are put out. That means underbrush that would normally burn every decade or so can build up over time, fueling more intense fires when it does burn.

    Some ecosystems rely on fire.

    To avoid that overgrowth, land managers conduct annual prescribed fires to try to mimic that natural fire activity in a controlled way. These controlled burns are critical for removing vegetation that otherwise could provide additional fuel for more intense and damaging wildfires.

    Is dryness like this becoming more common?

    Extreme weather events are becoming more common across the U.S., including in the Southeast and the Carolinas.

    Increasing temperatures mean the atmosphere can hold more moisture, amplifying how much water it can draw from the land surface and eventually drop in heavier storms. That can lead to more extreme storms and longer dry periods. In humid regions like the Southeast, where there is an abundance of dense vegetation, periods of warm, dry conditions that dry out that vegetation will increase the risk of wildfire.

    A fire crew prepares to battle a blaze in Horry County, S.C., on March 3, 2025.
    SC Department of Natural Resources/Anadolu via Getty Images

    According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the southeastern U.S. experienced more droughts than other regions in the country in the first two decades of the 21st century.

    The weather variability also makes it harder to clear out forest undergrowth. Prescribed burns require that vegetation be dry enough to burn but also that winds are calm enough to allow firefighters to manage the flames. Studies show those conditions are likely to become less common in the Southeast in a warming world. Without that tool to reduce fuel, the risk of intense wildfires rises.

    Lauren Lowman is a Co-PI on a National Science Foundation Grant titled, “AccelNet-Design: iFireNet: An international network of networks for prediction and management of wildland fires.”

    Nick Corak receives funding from the North Carolina Space Grant Graduate Research Fellowship for his project titled “Disentangling Burn Severity and Vegetation Regrowth Dynamics Following Prescribed Fire Across North Carolina.” The work was previously supported by the joint NC Sea Grant – NC Space Grant Graduate Research Fellowship.

    – ref. Carolina wildfires followed months of weather whiplash, from drought to hurricane-fueled floods and back to drought – https://theconversation.com/carolina-wildfires-followed-months-of-weather-whiplash-from-drought-to-hurricane-fueled-floods-and-back-to-drought-251470

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What’s behind Erdoğan’s calculated shift on Kurds and its potential consequences

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Spyros A. Sofos, Assistant Professor in Global Humanities, Simon Fraser University

    On March 1, the start of the holy month of Ramadan — observed by most of Turkey’s Sunni population — the imprisoned leader of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party, Abdullah Öcalan, made a historic call for the party to disarm and end its 40-year-long armed struggle against the Turkish state.

    Though seemingly unexpected, this call for peace — made a few weeks before Nowruz, the Kurdish New Year, on March 20 — followed months of negotiations between Turkey’s ruling coalition made up of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), Devlet Bahçeli’s Nationalist Action Party (MHP) and Kurdish officials.

    In a political landscape long shaped by conflict, Erdoğan’s recent overtures to Kurdish political forces mark a striking shift. In his speech during his party’s congress in Trabzon earlier this year, Erdoğan emphasized the unity and shared history among Turks and Kurds — the latter of whom have long been victims of imperialist designs of dividing the region and have been a mainstay of his populist rhetoric.

    Change of course on the Kurds

    Erdoğan’s speech suggested not only a willingness to re-engage with Kurds but also the possibility of a broader political compromise.

    In October 2024, Erdoğan ally and MHP leader Bahçeli, in a move carefully choreographed with the Turkish president’s change of course, opened the way to such a rapprochement by inviting Öcalan to parliament. Bahçeli also proposed Öcalan’s release in exchange for a ceasefire.

    This is not Erdoğan’s first attempt to resolve the Kurdish issue. In 2009, he launched the “Kurdish Opening,” aimed at ending the conflict through dialogue. Similar initiatives followed in 2008–11 and 2013–15.

    But all initiatives ultimately collapsed due to political disagreements, shifting alliances and Erdoğan’s increasingly authoritarian approach to governance.

    This latest initiative follows the same transactional logic that marked the earlier processes. Erdoğan’s renewed interest in engaging with the Kurds appears driven less by a desire for peace-making and more by political necessity.

    Domestically, Erdoğan’s AKP has grown increasingly reliant on its alliance with ultra-nationalist MHP. While this partnership secured his 2023 re-election as president, its fragility became evident in the country’s 2024 local elections, when opposition candidates won key mayoral races throughout the country. They were aided by the tacit support of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM.)



    Read more:
    What’s next for Turkey after local elections put Erdoğan on notice

    Destabilizing the opposition

    The process that led to Öcalan’s statement from prison is quite likely to bring significant realignments to Turkish politics.

    By engaging with the broader Kurdish movement, Erdoğan seeks to destabilize the fragile and fractured opposition coalition, whose unity hinged on their shared opposition to him. Their continued relevance also depends on the tacit support of DEM and its Kurdish voters.

    By opening a new dialogue, Erdoğan may tip the balance in his favour by positioning DEM as a privileged negotiating partner. Drawing Kurdish political support away from the opposition and securing Kurdish backing for constitutional reforms would allow him to seek another presidential term.

    With 57 parliamentary seats, DEM holds significant sway and can make all the difference if Erdoğan initiates a constitutional amendment process.

    Regional and strategic implications

    Erdoğan’s overtures also carry significant regional implications. Turkey’s military operations in Syria and Iraq have strained relations with Kurdish factions across the region.

    At the same time, Turkey has strengthened ties with Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government, highlighting Erdoğan’s pragmatism when dealing with Kurdish entities.

    By addressing the Kurdish issue domestically, Erdoğan could strengthen his hand regionally, perhaps replicating his co-operation with Iraq in relations with the Democratic Union Party in Northern Syria, positioning Turkey as a stabilizing force in both Iraq and Syria.

    What comes next?

    Despite Erdoğan’s conciliatory tone, the future of this peace process remains highly uncertain. Previous negotiations unravelled due to unresolved questions about Kurdish political autonomy, cultural rights and power-sharing.

    The AKP’s emphasis on disarmament without addressing broader Kurdish political demands resulted in the eventual breakdown of dialogue.

    Internal divisions within Kurdish political forces also complicate the process. While Öcalan’s influence remains strong, some Kurdish factions may resist concessions without meaningful political guarantees. And despite Bahçeli’s recent statements, Erdoğan’s MHP allies remain deeply skeptical of any reconciliation efforts.

    As Nowruz approaches, Erdoğan’s engagement with Kurdish political forces could culminate in a new phase of dialogue — or serve as a strategic manoeuvre to consolidate power ahead of the next election cycle.

    Whether his shift leads to genuine reconciliation or remains a political gambit will depend on Erdoğan’s willingness to address Kurdish demands for autonomy and cultural recognition.

    If the past is any indicator, pro-Kurdish parties and civil society organizations currently engaged in negotiations may once again be discarded if they no longer serve Erdoğan’s interests. For now, the Kurdish question remains one of the most critical — and volatile — fault lines in Turkish politics.

    Whether lasting peace is on the horizon, or another cycle of repression and conflict, will depend on how any potential peace process unfolds in the coming months.

    Spyros A. Sofos receives funding from SSHRC and SFU.

    – ref. What’s behind Erdoğan’s calculated shift on Kurds and its potential consequences – https://theconversation.com/whats-behind-erdogans-calculated-shift-on-kurds-and-its-potential-consequences-246879

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mice with woolly mammoth traits could pave the way for the resurrection of an ice age giant

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Timothy Hearn, Senior Lecturer in Bioinformatics, Anglia Ruskin University

    A US biotech company has genetically modified mice to have traits from the extinct woolly mammoth. Researchers at Colossal Laboratories and Biosciences endowed their mice with the thick, shaggy hair of the mammoth and its efficient fat metabolism, which helped it survive in icy conditions.

    Colossal’s ultimate goal is to introduce these woolly mammoth traits, along with others, into modern elephants. This general area of science has become known as de-extinction.

    However, elephants have long gestation (pregnancy) periods, exhibit complex social behaviour, and experimentation on them raises significant ethical challenges, including the issue of animal welfare. Therefore, the researchers have chosen mice for the initial experiments.

    Mice breed quickly, and their genes are easier to modify, which allows
    scientists to test and refine their methods in an animal they understand well.

    Instead of trying to clone a dead mammoth, Colossal is trying to transform an modern elephant into a mammoth. The process begins with ancient DNA. Colossal’s team extracted genetic material from woolly mammoth remains preserved in Arctic permafrost – a natural archive that has safeguarded genetic secrets for thousands of years.

    By comparing this ancient DNA with that of modern elephants, the researchers identified the specific genes responsible for the mammoth’s distinctive woolly coat and its rapid fat metabolism.

    The next step was to use a powerful gene editing tool
    called Crispr. This molecular technique enables scientists to make precise modifications (changes) in an organism’s DNA. In the laboratory, the researchers applied Crispr to edit the DNA of mouse embryos, introducing the mammoth versions of the genes that control hair texture and fat metabolism.

    Many experiments were needed and a large number of mouse embryos underwent testing to ensure the genetic modifications were successful. However, the work clearly demonstrated that these complex genetic traits could be replicated in a living model.

    This is a process that would be far more difficult, and ethically challenging, if
    attempted directly in elephants. However, the success in mice provides a critical proof of concept.

    In an elephant, the process would involve editing early-stage embryos and implanting them into a surrogate elephant mother. For now, the work in mice offers a safer, efficient and more cost-effective way to test and perfect the scientists’ gene editing approaches.

    Although the prospect of an elephant with woolly mammoth characteristics may still
    be a distant goal, the current work with mice is an essential early milestone. By focusing on a manageable animal, the scientists can gather vital data and refine their techniques without the immediate complications that would arise from working with larger, more complex animals.

    This methodical progression – from mice to elephants – ensures that each step is
    shown to be effective before moving on to the next. Such incremental progress in science can eventually lead to groundbreaking advances.

    Although the whole concept of bringing the mammoth back might sound like science fiction, Colossal envisions a future where de-extinction and genetic enhancement play a key role in restoring natural ecosystems.

    Their research could pave the way for reviving other species, such as the thylacine – a carnivore that lived on the island of Tasmania – or the dodo, which once roamed Mauritius. The work might even contribute to the survival of current endangered species by enhancing their natural defences, such as introducing genes that confer immunity to disease.

    As habitats shrink and species become increasingly endangered, innovative conservation strategies are urgently needed. Gene editing, as demonstrated in these experiments, could provide a complementary tool to traditional conservation methods.

    By bestowing modern species with traits that once helped extinct animals survive in extreme conditions, scientists hope to improve their resilience to a changing environment.

    Timothy Hearn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Mice with woolly mammoth traits could pave the way for the resurrection of an ice age giant – https://theconversation.com/mice-with-woolly-mammoth-traits-could-pave-the-way-for-the-resurrection-of-an-ice-age-giant-251561

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –