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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: The UK farmer protests you probably haven’t heard about

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alex Heffron, PhD Candidate in Geography, Lancaster University

    Fruit pickers and farm workers protesting labour abuses on British farms. Peter Marshall

    Farm owners have besieged parliament with tractors in order to protest new subsidy schemes and inheritance tax arrangements. The farm workers who milk cows, drive machinery and pick crops have grievances too, yet their demands have been less publicised. So, what do they want?

    I am a farmer based in the south-west of Wales and a researcher of farming policy. I recently joined a protest by a group of Latin American farm workers known as “Justice is Not Seasonal”, outside the Home Office in London.

    The group accused soft fruit supplier Haygrove, which operates farms on three continents and supplies veg box delivery schemes including Riverford and Abel and Cole, of presiding over poor living and working conditions, failing to pay workers and charging inflated flight costs for overseas workers. Haygrove has an annual turnover in excess of £50 million.

    Haygrove denies these allegations. In response to a case brought forward by the trade union United Voices of the World and the charity Anti Trafficking and Labour Exploitation Unit, the Home Office has made an interim decision stating there are reasonable grounds that one of the affected workers, Julia Quecaño Casimiro, has been subjected to human trafficking and modern slavery.

    The case tribunal is due to be held soon although it has been a slow, arduous process reaching this point.

    In an article for the BBC, a spokesperson for Haygrove said that Casimiro’s claims were “materially incorrect and misleading”. Haygrove’s practices are audited by third-party organisations including the Home Office, and the company takes “great care” in ensuring fair recruitment and working processes, the spokesperson said.

    Various trade unions and organisations attended the protest, including the Landworkers’ Alliance, United Voices of the World, Independent Workers’ union of Great Britain, Unite and Solidarity Across Land Trades.

    Conspicuously absent was the National Farmers’ Union, which predominantly represents farm owners. This highlights the divergent class interests that exist within terms like “farmer”.

    More workers and more exploitation

    There are 160,000 UK farm workers (as opposed to owners and managers). Of these, some of the most gruelling agricultural work is done by around 45,000 seasonal migrant workers, either in fields in all weather or in the sweltering heat of polytunnels.

    The UK attracts migrant farm workers with six-month temporary visas. A United Nations special rapporteur, Tomoya Obokata, an expert in human rights law and modern slavery, has suggested that the UK is breaking international law with its seasonal work scheme by failing to investigate instances of forced labour. Claims of exploitation and bullying on UK farms are also becoming more common. Meanwhile, in an effort to appease farm managers, the UK government recently announced a five-year extension of this scheme.

    Food and farming organisations have urged the UK to produce more fruit and vegetables as part of a wider shift towards a less carbon-intensive food system.

    To scale up domestic production will require more workers harvesting crops in poor conditions, especially migrant workers who don’t have the same legal rights as British citizens.

    Seasonal migrant workers, for example, cannot bring family members to the UK and have no access to benefits, while their visas are often tied to one place of work which typically includes accommodation which leaves them particularly vulnerable to abuse. A call for increased labour, without a call for improved conditions, could mean more exploitation on British farms.

    Exploitation is not limited to the allegations of a few bad apples either. It is so widespread that it threatens the resilience of the UK’s food system.

    A recent report found that more than half of migrants at risk of labour abuse work in the food system. A more resilient food supply will require better working conditions, pay and housing for workers in this sector, the report concludes.

    Higher prices don’t mean better welfare

    It’s tempting to ask consumers to pay more for their food so that farm workers might earn more. However, higher prices are no guarantee of better conditions. Leaving aside rising inflation and stagnating wages which make it harder for consumers to buy ethically, organic farms already sell produce at a premium and some are also among those accused of mistreating workers.

    This is even a problem among small-scale organic food producers, as documented by Solidarity Across Land Trades. A report by this land worker’s union found that some small farms use bogus traineeships to justify paying workers as little as £1.41 per hour. This is despite the produce usually being sold for more than conventional supermarket prices.

    Greener diets depend on increased fruit and vegetable production.
    Framarzo/Shutterstock

    The structural problems of the food system are more complicated than the price consumers pay for food. There is also the question of who gets to be heard, who is valued and who is deemed worthy of rights and dignity when food production takes place under a system of class-based exploitation. These challenges cannot be solved at the checkout alone.

    The ecological crisis demands transitions away from diesel-powered machinery and chemical fertilisers and herbicides produced with fossil fuels. Farm workers are needed to carry out the transition towards more sustainable practices, but there will be no green transition unless these workers have a stake in it.

    This idea of “a just transition” has gained traction in recent years, and it is just as relevant to farmers and farm workers as it is to workers in other sectors, such as oil and gas. But what might it look like?

    The demands made by Justice Is Not Seasonal are a good place to start: an end to forced labour and exploitation on UK farms and full accountability for those responsible, fair wages and safe working conditions, residency rights and access to justice and remediation.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Alex Heffron does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The UK farmer protests you probably haven’t heard about – https://theconversation.com/the-uk-farmer-protests-you-probably-havent-heard-about-249414

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mexico’s drug corruption has more to do with US demand than crooked politicians

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nathaniel Morris, Honorary Lecturer in the Department of History, UCL

    The US president, Donald Trump, asserted in early February that Mexican drug-trafficking organisations have an “intolerable alliance” with the government of Mexico. His remarks have cast a pall over bilateral relations already strained by recent talk of tariffs and military interventions.

    Although the two nations have sometimes clashed in the past, Mexico is today a close US ally. It is America’s top trading partner, with two-way commerce totalling US$807 billion (£640 billion) in 2023. And joint US-Mexican anti-narcotics collaborations stretch back nearly a century.

    Trump’s accusation was, therefore, as unexpected as it was explosive. It has brought figures from across the Mexican political spectrum together in condemnation of what Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, called “baseless slander”.

    The Mexican government is, on paper, a resolute enemy of the drug trade. However, the undeniable existence of drug-related corruption in Mexico means the reality is a little more complex.

    Since the birth of the Mexico-US drug trade in the early 20th century, certain government officials have turned a blind eye to the activities of drug traffickers in exchange for bribes. This “indirect” government involvement in the drug trade has always been by far the most prevalent form of drug-related corruption in Mexico.

    From the 1930s onwards, political bosses, police chiefs and military commanders in Mexico’s so-called “golden triangle” states of Sinaloa, Durango and Chihuahua taxed illicit opium production in the areas under their authority.

    They also sabotaged anti-drugs campaigns waged by other branches of government, in order to avoid conflict with their constituents and take a cut of their profits. Similar intrigues took place in the key trafficking hubs on the US-Mexico border, like Tijuana, Ciudad Juarez and Nuevo Laredo.



    Read more:
    How the ‘Mexican miracle’ kickstarted the modern US–Mexico drugs trade

    Over the second half of the 20th century, Mexican and US drug enforcement efforts created an ever-more profitable black market. Low-level corruption accompanied the expansion of drug production and trafficking south into other areas of Mexico like Nayarit, Michoacán and Guerrero.

    Nowadays, the indirect involvement of local representatives of the Mexican government in the drug trade has become a fact of life in such places. But zones of drug production or trafficking still constitute only a fraction of Mexico’s total territory. This means corrupt local officials comprise a tiny minority of the overall government workforce.

    There are, however, also cases in which higher-level representatives of the Mexican state – or even entire government institutions – have participated directly in the production, transport or sale of illegal drugs.

    Such cases are relatively rare. But, they are inherently higher profile than the more routine, “looking the other way” kind of corruption. They are, therefore, more likely to make headlines in the US and from there inform popular and even national political discourse.

    The earliest such case is probably that of revolutionary military commander Esteban Cantú. Between 1915 and 1920, Cantú constructed a powerful political regime and funded important local development projects in the northern state of Baja California. He did so by taxing the import, sale and production of smoking opium first legally and then, when President Venustiano Carranza banned the practice, illegally.

    High-level official involvement in the drug trade became more frequent as the trade itself became ever more illicit and profitable. In 1940, Sinaloa governor Rodolfo Loaiza cut a series of deals with the up-and-coming drug trafficking organisations of his native state. An attempt to double-cross them cost Loaiza his life in 1944.

    Around the same time, political campaign manager Carlos Serrano looked to regional drug smugglers to help fund Miguel Alemán’s successful run for the presidency. Serrano was rewarded with command of the newly created, US-backed Federal Directorate of Security (DFS) secret police force. He soon used this position to move directly into opium trafficking himself.

    After US president Richard Nixon declared a “war on drugs” on both sides of the border in 1971, increasing crackdowns provided more opportunities for the same Mexican officials charged with enforcing prohibition to cut deals with traffickers. Resulting squeezes on supply also caused prices to soar and made such deals increasingly lucrative for government officials.

    By the mid-1980s, the DFS had become so deeply immersed in the drug trade that several of its agents were implicated in the Guadalajara Cartel’s murder of US Drug Enforcement Administration agent Enrique “Kiki” Camarena. The agency was disbanded soon after.

    But US demand for drugs continued unabated through the 1990s and into the 21st century. The profits offered by involvement in the drug trade proved hard to resist for a select number of high-ranking government officials, including members of the federal cabinet and state governors.

    Even Genaro García Luna, the architect of Mexico’s modern “war on drugs” ended up on the take. He is now serving 38 years in a US prison for colluding with Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán’s Sinaloa Cartel.

    Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán being led away by Mexican law enforcement personnel after his arrest in 2014.
    Octavio Hoyos / Shutterstock

    An ‘intolerable alliance’?

    The indirect involvement of Mexican government officials remains far more common than direct or institutional involvement in the drug trade.

    Such corruption is largely opportunistic, rather than systematic, which is why it remains concentrated in areas where drug production and trafficking are particularly prevalent. It is also not limited to the Mexican side of the border. Plenty of crooked American cops and politicians have cut deals with traffickers over the years, too.

    Trump’s recent attacks on the Mexican government are not an accurate diagnosis of a uniquely Mexican problem. They are more of a headline-grabbing shot across the bows in the context of the renegotiation of many different aspects of the US-Mexico relationship.

    In the end, the issue of drug-related corruption in Mexico has less to do with its own government and more to do with American society’s own insatiable demand for drugs. Crackdowns on the cartels inevitably cause the price of drugs to rise, increasing the temptation of Mexican officials to try and grab a piece of the pie.

    As a businessman like Trump should be able to see, it’s not government corruption that drives the US-Mexican drug trade, but the iron laws of supply and demand.

    Nathaniel Morris has previously received funding from the Leverhulme Trust, the Arts and Humanities Research Council and University College London for research that has fed into this article. He is also a member of Noria Research.

    – ref. Mexico’s drug corruption has more to do with US demand than crooked politicians – https://theconversation.com/mexicos-drug-corruption-has-more-to-do-with-us-demand-than-crooked-politicians-249991

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Trump really wants Ukraine’s minerals – China has put theirs off limits

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of Portsmouth

    Donald Trump is demanding reparations from Ukraine for the assistance that it has given to Kyiv during the Russian invasion. Trump has demanded Ukraine sign a US$500 billion (£394 billion) deal that would give the US access to, and revenue from, Ukraine’s rare and critical minerals, an essential resource in 21st century economy.

    Trump has said that this would form part of a repayment of the aid given by the US to Ukraine. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has so far refused to sign such an agreement stating that the aid was a grant and not a loan, as agreed by Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden and the Republican-controlled Congress.

    A key reason behind Trump’s push for this mineral deal is the US reliance on rare minerals such as gallium, which is critical for advanced defence technologies but is not readily available domestically.

    China, a leading supplier of gallium, has used its control over the resource as leverage against the US. It has imposed a ban on rare minerals being exported to the US, as part of its retaliation to increased US tariffs on Chinese goods.

    Other minerals are crucial for military technology such as missile system, electronics and electric vehicles. In Ukraine, there are deposits for 22 of the 34 minerals identified by the European Union as critical.

    The problem for the US is that China currently accounts for a high proportion of certain crticial mineral imports.

    So Trump sees a resolution to the Ukraine war as an opportunity to secure alternative sources of critical minerals, reducing US dependency on China and allowing Trump to take a more aggressive approach towards it. He also may not have predicted that China would hit back against the US tariffs with restrictions on these vital resources quite so quickly.

    Gallium is valued by the defence manufacturing industry because it is reliable and durable. In particular, the element is seen as a crucial tool enhancing radar, satellite communication systems, and electronic warfare systems. It is also used in multi-chip modules utilised by navigation and air traffic control systems.

    In addition to gallium, Ukraine has vast resources of graphite, an element that is used in the construction of electric vehicles and nuclear reactors, and a third of Europe’s supply of lithium, which is used in batteries.

    Trump’s focus on critical minerals has also influenced his interest in Greenland which possesses significant reserves of critical minerals, making it a potential alternative to Chinese-controlled resources.



    Read more:
    Trump’s Greenland bid is really about control of the Arctic and the coming battle with China

    Which minerals does Trump want?

    Why is China so important?

    Trump’s concern over China is also driving his negotiations with Russia more generally. One of Trump’s core concerns is China’s partnership with Russia. There is no doubt that China is now the dominant force in the Sino-Russian alliance.

    Given the increasing cooperation between the two nations in military, economic, and technological areas, Trump believes that China’s influence in global affairs needs to be countered aggressively. The Trump administration has sought to undermine the alliance by softening the US’s approach to Russia, a move that has shocked European leaders.

    Trump has long viewed China as the major threat to the US, considering it their biggest economic rival and a significant obstacle to making America “great again”.

    His economic policies have targeted Chinese trade practices, supply chain dependencies and geopolitical manoeuvres. One of his key trade advisers has argued American businesses are at a disadvantage from China’s state-controlled economy, intellectual property theft and trade imbalance.

    The recent tariffs imposed by the US on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports, were intended to make US products more competitive by driving up the cost of Chinese imports, thereby encouraging businesses and consumers to buy domestic goods instead.

    At the same time, Trump sought to weaken China’s export economy by making it more difficult for Chinese companies to sell goods in the US. His tariff policies extended beyond China, with similar measures being considered for Europe.

    By targeting multiple regions, Trump aimed to shift global supply chains and solidify the US as a manufacturing powerhouse. By ending the war in Ukraine, Trump believes the US can redirect funds and resources used in Europe toward countering China’s growing influence.

    Trump has tried to justify the tariffs on China by claiming Chinese manufacturers are responsible for the mass production of fentanyl, which is then trafficked into the US through various channels. Trump has proposed stricter measures to curb the flow of fentanyl, including sanctions and tariffs on Chinese firms allegedly involved in its production.

    Following China’s retaliation, Trump needs peace in Ukraine and the consequential mineral agreement with Kyiv before China’s ban on exports to the US affects critical US manufacturing. Such an agreement would then allow him to take an even more aggressive posture with China with fewer consequences.

    However, Zelensky recently claimed that Russia has taken control of 20% of Ukraine’s minerals since the invasion. And it’s possible it will be years before any American investor gets any return on their money due to a chronic lack of investment in Ukraine’s minerals sector for almost a decade.

    Even if Trump does get the deal he wants, he will have to wait a while before Ukraine’s minerals will fulfil all of the US’s needs.

    Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Trump really wants Ukraine’s minerals – China has put theirs off limits – https://theconversation.com/why-trump-really-wants-ukraines-minerals-china-has-put-theirs-off-limits-250546

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Labour’s Mike Amesbury has been jailed for punching a man – here’s why he’s still an MP

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Thomas Caygill, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Nottingham Trent University

    Former Labour MP Mike Amesbury has been jailed for ten weeks after he pleaded guilty to punching a man in his constituency of Runcorn and Helsby. The incident happened in October of last year. Amesbury had the Labour whip withdrawn and has sat as an independent MP since.

    What happens to MPs who are accused and found guilty of wrongdoing? While it does depend on how we define “wrongdoing”, as it can vary in terms of the scale of offence, there are several options available to parliamentary parties, the House of Commons itself and the public. In the case of Amesbury, neither parliament nor the Labour party can stop him from remaining as an MP under the current rules, either while in prison or after he comes out. But his constituents do have a say.

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    The ultimate power parliamentary parties have (particularly the leader) is to remove the whip. In effect, this means the MP is expelled from the parliamentary party and may not sit with their colleagues, nor be reelected under the party banner should the whip remain withdrawn at an election.

    There is a distinction between the whip being withdrawn and it being suspended. To have the whip withdrawn suggests it is final and will not be returned. To have it suspended suggests its removal is only temporary and can be returned. This was the case with the seven Labour MPs who voted against the party line over the two-child benefit cap.

    Amesbury had the whip withdrawn after the allegations and video evidence (which was circulated widely on social media) emerged. However, he remains an independent MP, at least for now.

    The House of Commons has the power to suspend MPs from the chamber for a specified period of time. Where an MP is found to have broken the code of conduct or committed a contempt of the House (for example, misleading the House), the committee on standards may recommend a period of suspension which leads to a motion being tabled in the House of Commons.

    This is what was going to happen to Boris Johnson after he was found to have misled parliament over “partygate” allegations. He resigned before the suspension could take effect.

    The parliamentary commissioner for standards, (an independent officer of the House of Commons), can also investigate complaints made against MPs (including over breaching lobbying rules). In serious cases it can report to the standards committee to recommend a sanction, including suspension from the House.

    The only way an MP can be expelled by the House of Commons completely (rather than having their membership suspended) is if they are sentenced to more than a year’s imprisonment. In this case, Amesbury was sentenced to ten weeks, so well below that threshold.

    Prior to 2015, this would have been the end of the process. Amesbury would have had the whip withdrawn. After completing his ten-week sentence he would have been free to continue to sit as an MP until the end of his current term.

    The role of the public

    As things stand in 2025, this is no longer the end of the line for these kinds of offences. We are approaching the tenth anniversary of the Recall of MPs Act, which has provided a route for the electorate to remove sitting MPs who have been found to have committed wrongdoing.

    Recall refers to a process whereby the electorate in a constituency can trigger a byelection to remove a sitting MP before the end of their term of office. MPs can be recalled under three circumstances:

    • if they are convicted in the UK of any offence and sentenced or ordered to be imprisoned or detained, after all appeals have been exhausted

    • if an MP is suspended from the House following report and recommended sanction from the committee on standards for a specified period: at least 10 sitting days, or at least 14 days if sitting days are not specified (we saw a number of these kind of recalls during the 2019 Parliament, particularly following lobbying scandals)

    • if an MP is convicted of making false or misleading parliamentary allowances claims (under the Parliamentary Standards Act 2009).

    In the case of Amesbury, his sentence is close to meeting the conditions of the first point. I use the word “close” as he is planning on appealing the sentence, and the criteria cannot be formally met until those appeals are exhausted.

    If any of the criteria are met, then the speaker must notify the local returning officer (who oversees elections). A recall petition is then automatically launched and remains open for six weeks. Under the act, electors must sign the petition in person, by post or by proxy. For a petition to be successful and a byelection triggered, 10% of the eligible registered voters must sign it.

    At the time of writing, there have been six recall petitions launched against various MPs. Four of those were successful and saw the sitting MP lose their seat, one petition failed and the MP remained in place and in one case the MP resigned while the petition was open, automatically triggering a byelection.

    Given Amesbury is appealing, this process has not yet begun. However, he is under pressure, particularly from opposition MPs, to resign immediately and trigger a byelection now.

    While there is potentially a way back for Amesbury in terms of remaining an MP (should his appeal be successful or if a recall petition goes ahead and fails to meet the 10% threshold) it is unlikely there is a way back for him in terms of having the Labour whip restored.

    Either way, he may be on borrowed time. Even if he remains an MP, without a party whip he most likely faces defeat at a subsequent general election.

    This is what happened to former Labour MP Claudia Webbe. She had the whip withdrawn by the Labour Party in 2021 following a conviction for harassment. However, she appealed her sentence and was given community service instead – failing to trigger the Recall of MPs Act. She remained as an independent MP until the 2024 general election, where she was defeated by the Conservative candidate.

    There is an onus on political parties to ensure they respond to credible allegations of wrongdoing appropriately, including suspending the whip and removing it where necessary. In Amesbury’s case, Labour acted quickly.

    But given the scandals we have seen in recent years, the public have limited patience. And wrongdoing, by what is a small minority of MPs, can tar the reputation of all MPs and parliament itself.

    Thomas Caygill is currently receiving funding from the British Academy (SRG2324241256)

    – ref. Labour’s Mike Amesbury has been jailed for punching a man – here’s why he’s still an MP – https://theconversation.com/labours-mike-amesbury-has-been-jailed-for-punching-a-man-heres-why-hes-still-an-mp-250707

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘I thought about escaping every day’: how survivors get out of Southeast Asia’s cybercrime compounds – Scam Factories podcast, Ep 3

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gemma Ware, Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

    Every day that he was locked up in a scam compound in Southeast Asia, George thought about how to get out. “We looked for means of escaping, but it was hard,” he told The Conversation.

    George, whose name has been changed to protect his identity, managed to secretly contact a rescue organisation in Myanmar, where he was being held. That set in motion a chain of events that would eventually lead to his freedom, but it would take months before he made it back home to his family in Uganda.

    Hundreds of thousands of people like George are estimated to have been caught up in the brutal scamming industry in Southeast Asia, many forced into criminality against their will.

    Scam Factories is a podcast series from The Conversation Weekly taking you inside these brutal fraud compounds. It accompanies a series of multimedia articles on The Conversation.

    In our third and final episode, Great Escapes, we find out the different ways people manage to escape and at what costs, what it takes for them to get home, and what is being done to clamp down on the industry.

    The Conversation collaborated for this series with three researchers: Ivan Franceschini, a lecturer in Chinese Studies at the University of Melbourne; Ling Li, a PhD candidate at Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, and Mark Bo, an independent researcher.

    They’ve spent the past few years researching the expansion of scam compounds in the region for a forthcoming book. They’ve interviewed nearly 100 survivors of the compounds, analysed maps and financial documents related to the scam industry and tracked scammers online to find out how these compounds work.

    Read an article by Ivan Franceschini and Ling Li which accompanies this episode.

    The Conversation contacted all the companies mentioned in this multimedia series for comment, except Jinshui who we could not contact. We did not receive a response from any of them.

    This episode was written and produced by Gemma Ware, with assistance from Mend Mariwany and Katie Flood. Leila Goldstein was our producer in Cambodia and Halima Athumani recorded for us in Uganda. Hui Lin helped us with Chinese translation. Sound design by Michelle Macklem and editing help from Ashlynee McGhee and Justin Bergman.

    Newsclips in this episodes are from CNA, Reuters and Al Jazeera English.

    Listen to The Conversation Weekly podcast via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here.

    Mark Bo, an independent researcher who works with Ivan Franeschini and Ling Li, is also interviewed in this podcast series. Ivan, Ling, Mark, and others have co-founded EOS Collective, a non-profit organisation dedicated to investigating the criminal networks behind the online scam industry and supporting survivors.

    – ref. ‘I thought about escaping every day’: how survivors get out of Southeast Asia’s cybercrime compounds – Scam Factories podcast, Ep 3 – https://theconversation.com/i-thought-about-escaping-every-day-how-survivors-get-out-of-southeast-asias-cybercrime-compounds-scam-factories-podcast-ep-3-250673

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 5 years on, COVID remains NZ’s most important infectious disease – it still demands a strong response

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Baker, Professor of Public Health, University of Otago

    Getty Images

    This Friday, February 28, marks five years since COVID-19 was first reported in Aotearoa New Zealand. At a population level, it remains our most harmful infectious disease, with thousands of hospitalisations and 664 deaths last year.

    Understandably perhaps, many people want to move on from the early pandemic years, and there is a temptation to minimise COVID’s threat now the emergency response has passed.

    But it deserves a proportionate response that draws on the rich evidence we now have of how to minimise the harms of respiratory infections and the health and economic benefits that come from managing them well.

    The epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 virus continues to change. Hospitalisations provide the most consistent measure of incidence trends. Wastewater testing shows similar successive waves of infection.

    The past five years divide into a successful elimination response from March 2020 to late 2021 and a mitigation period from February 2022 onwards.

    The mitigation phase, which has now lasted three years, has been driven by Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2, with seven waves of generally decreasing size (see graph above).

    Total hospitalisations have dropped from a peak of more than 22,000 in 2022 to about 9,000 in 2024 (a 60% decline). Deaths attributed to COVID have also decreased from 2,757 in 2022 to 664 in 2024 (a 76% decline). These drops are likely to reflect changes in both the virus and population immunity arising from vaccination and infection.

    The timing and size of COVID waves remain unpredictable. They are not following a seasonal pattern like influenza. Only two of the seven Omicron waves peaked in the flu season (see graph above).

    Although further declines are likely, it is possible a large-scale change in the virus could emerge – as we’ve seen with Delta and Omicron variants – and reverse this pattern. We still need to plan for the possibility of severe future variants as well as for other types of pandemics that might be becoming more likely.

    Health and economic impacts of Long COVID

    Despite a favourable downward trend, deaths and hospitalisations from COVID are still higher than those estimated for influenza, which is probably our next most burdensome infectious disease.

    It is also a major cause of health inequities with significantly worse infection outcomes for Māori and Pacific peoples.

    Continuing high rates of repeat infections are also driving Long COVID, with the risk estimated at 4-14% per infection. Long COVID occurs with infections of all intensities, with both initial infection and reinfections.

    Consequently, the prevalence of Long COVID is likely to increase over time, with substantial health and economic consequences.

    How to respond to the ongoing pandemic

    We know what works to reduce the harms from COVID. Above all, we need an evidence-informed national plan, clear communication, engagement with key partners (including the health sector, public and Māori), resources and implementation. Key elements include:

    1. Continuing and enhancing highly effective COVID surveillance

    Surveillance systems include use of wastewater testing and whole-genome sequencing which guide our response. We need to add a focus on hospital-acquired COVID which is an important source of infections and deaths, estimated to have caused about 14% of COVID deaths in New South Wales in 2023, which would represent about 150 deaths that year in New Zealand.

    2. Promoting regular repeat vaccinations

    The currently available Pfizer JN.1 vaccine provides a reasonable match with the circulating strain of the virus. This vaccine is very safe and effective at reducing many adverse effects of infection, including Long COVID, but requires regular additional doses for all age groups to maintain effectiveness.

    3. Using public health and social measures to reduce infections

    These measures include improving indoor air quality and promoting testing and self-isolation for those with respiratory symptoms. Reintroducing free RAT tests and sick-leave support would help.

    Wearing respirator masks (for example, N95) is highly effective, particularly in confined indoor environments such as public transport. Given the severe effects of hospital-acquired COVID, health settings need particular attention. Evidence supports the effectiveness and value of admission testing of patients and staff wearing N95 masks.

    4. Taking specific measures to reduce and manage Long Covid

    This means active steps to reduce both the incidence of infection (with public health and social measures) and the severity and duration of illness (with vaccination and antivirals). New Zealand needs to offer more than a single additional dose for younger age groups to improve their protection from Long COVID.

    5. Updating and implementing our pandemic preparedness and response plan

    The Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID delivered a set of recommendations based on the pandemic experience. Now is the time to implement them.

    Our capacity could be supported through a New Zealand Centre for Disease Control and a pandemic cooperation agreement with Australia. Developing these pandemic capabilities would help to minimise COVID and other respiratory infections, including influenza.

    All of these measures would be supported by a strong, systematic response to the corrosive effects of misinformation and disinformation.

    The past five years have taught us a great deal about pandemic diseases and how to manage them. A key lesson from New Zealand’s highly successful early elimination response was the importance of good evidence-informed leadership and a cohesive plan.

    Such leadership is still needed now to mitigate the harm from COVID which remains an ongoing threat to individual and societal wellbeing.

    Michael Baker’s employer, the University of Otago, has received funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand and the New Zealand Ministry of Health for research he has carried out on COVID-19 epidemiology, prevention and control.

    Matire Harwood is a member of the Hauora Māori Advisory Committee to the Minister of Health.

    Amanda Kvalsvig, John Donne Potter, and Nick Wilson do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 5 years on, COVID remains NZ’s most important infectious disease – it still demands a strong response – https://theconversation.com/5-years-on-covid-remains-nzs-most-important-infectious-disease-it-still-demands-a-strong-response-246873

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Alcohol ingestion by animals is surprisingly widespread – and we’re starting to understand its impact

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anna Christina Bowland, PhD Candidate in Biosciences, University of Exeter

    Humans may not be the only animals that ingest alcohol, research is suggesting. Studies on animals are showing they may be eating natural ethanol for its medicinal or nutritional properties.

    Humans drink alcohol in almost every part of the world, apart from places where people abstain for religious reasons. In the past, many people believed alcohol consumption was unique to humans, but growing evidence is showing we aren’t alone in our taste for booze.

    It has long been known that vinegar flies are closely linked to alcohol given their tendency to breed on fermented fruits. However, it turns out they are not an outlier.

    When you think of alcohol, you may think of a pint of beer or a glass of wine. But there are many types of alcohol, most of which are extremely toxic. For example, isopropanol (rubbing alcohol), which is commonly used as a disinfectant.

    Ethanol, or ethyl alcohol, is the alcohol found in alcoholic beverages, but ethanol is also prevalent in nature. Yeasts, including Saccharomyces cerevisiae, also known as brewer’s yeast, are widespread in the natural environment and produce ethanol (possibly to defend the plant’s sugary resource from competing microorganisms), when they metabolise sugars via fermentation. Many fruits, nectars and saps contain an abundance of sugars. Some of this sugar becomes ethanol when colonised by yeast.

    Fruit from plants in Panama, Costa Rica, Singapore, Israel and Finland have been found to contain ethanol, as well as some nectars and saps. The concentration of ethanol in naturally fermenting fruit is typically much lower than those in human-made alcoholic beverages, but some overripe fruit, such as fruits of the black palm (Astrocaryum standleyanum) have ethanol levels similar to a standard beer (5%).

    If fruit, nectars and saps ferment in the wild, it is not surprising that some animals may ingest ethanol. Studies, experimental and in the wild, have confirmed insects (including honeybees and butterflies) ingest it, as well as birds (such as hummingbirds, cedar waxwings and bohemian waxwings) and mammals (for example, pen-tailed tree shrews and the slow loris). Non-human primates, including one of our closest living relatives the chimpanzee, ingest it too.

    Although examples in the wild are rare, this may be due to lack of research rather than prevalence. Researchers are developing methods that make it easier to measure ethanol in the field, and as more research is conducted, more examples will probably be discovered.

    Do animals get drunk?

    There are many anecdotes of “drunk” animals, from moose to elephants, but none of these cases have actually been validated. From an evolutionary standpoint, being drunk is disadvantageous. Intoxicated animals could be more susceptible to injury or predation, and less likely to survive.

    Instead, many scientists expect natural selection would favour adaptations for increased ethanol metabolism to avoid becoming “drunk”. This allows animals to eat fermented foods while minimising the negative effects of intoxication.

    In animals, including humans, the primary metabolic route for ethanol is similar. Ethanol is first oxidised to acetaldehyde (a toxic intermediate) by the enzyme alcohol dehydrogenase.

    Acetaldehyde is then converted to acetate (which is less toxic) by aldehyde dehydrogenase. Yet, the efficiency at which different animals metabolise ethanol varies. It can vary between humans too.

    Some animals appear to have enhanced ethanol metabolism. Much like humans, chimpanzees, gorillas and bonobos share a mutation that make them particularly efficient at metabolising ethanol.

    Interestingly, the only Asian great ape (orangutan), which is highly arboreal (tree-dwelling), doesn’t share this mutation. This may be because orangutans did not experience the same evolutionary pressures as the more terrestrial (ground-dwelling) African great apes.

    For example, orangutans primarily feed in trees where fruit is expected to be less fermented than when it falls to the ground.

    Adult female chimpanzee feeding on ripe Spondias mombin
    Kimberley Hockings, CC BY-NC-ND

    It is possible that if sugary foods ferment naturally, then animals that eat these foods may consume ethanol without meaning to. Ethanol may have some benefits. It has antimicrobial properties and vinegar flies are known to use it to self-medicate against parasites. However, not much is known on whether other animals also use ethanol for medicinal purposes.

    There are confirmed sightings of many animals, from chimpanzees to orangutans using plants for medication, so the use of ethanol in this way could be widespread. Animals may also ingest food with ethanol in it because ethanol itself is a source of calories and its presence indicates sugar and nutrient content.

    Ambrosia beetles use the smell of ethanol as a cue to find suitable host trees to colonise. The ethanol increases the growth of fungi which the beetles feed on.

    Many of us are keenly aware of ethanol’s cognitive impact, including feelings of relaxation. Ethanol might play a significant role in promoting sociality among humans. This may also apply to other species, but has yet to be studied in a natural context.

    We still have much to learn about wild animals’ natural use of ethanol. Many
    hypotheses remain untested, and we know little about whether animals seek out ethanol and fermented foods. But many animals ingest it. It is clear the party is growing, and we are just one of many species that partake in ethanol.

    Anna Christina Bowland has received funding from the Primatological Society of Great Britain (PSGB) and the University of Exeter.

    – ref. Alcohol ingestion by animals is surprisingly widespread – and we’re starting to understand its impact – https://theconversation.com/alcohol-ingestion-by-animals-is-surprisingly-widespread-and-were-starting-to-understand-its-impact-246638

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Child given detention for getting less than 90% on a test – psychology shows there are far better ways to motivate students

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Hannah Wilkinson, Lecturer in Educational Psychology, University of Manchester

    Connect Images – Legacy/Shutterstock

    An 11-year-old at a school in Essex was recently reported to have been given a detention for not achieving 90% on his maths homework (he got 81%). This measure by his school comes in an environment when schools in England seem to be increasingly reaching for severe methods of punishment: more and more children are being suspended or excluded. But the 11-year-old’s detention suggests a use of sanctions not only to deal with bad behaviour, but also to drive improved academic achievement.

    While this is a particularly overt example, many schools adopt strict behavioural policies in part to improve results. And the 2019 Timpson review of school exclusion in England reported allegations that a small number of schools were excluding pupils in order to boost the school’s academic attainment by removing them.

    But research in educational psychology shows there are better ways to motivate learners than the threat of sanctions.

    Since the 1988 Education Reform Act, which offered parents preference for their children’s schools and placed increased emphasis on measurable data, the education system has become a market in which schools compete against one another.

    Today, you can view a host of statistics for schools. These include how much progress students have made since joining secondary school and how many students received a pass in English and maths GCSE, as well as the percentage of students who have stayed in education or gained employment after leaving Year 11. These results can be compared with local schools and the national average.

    While the introduction of this visible data was introduced in a bid to improve schools and student outcomes, perhaps it is time to take stock of how this has changed the ways schools operate.

    The toll on schools and pupils

    The costs for schools failing to deliver on these statistics are high. They have included increased Ofsted inspections, the removal of the headteacher and the forced move of a school from local authority control into an academy trust.

    These accountability measures may lead schools to more punitive, pressuring approaches in order to push students to work hard to achieve good results, as well as to remove disruptive pupils from classrooms so as not to jeopardise the attainment of others.

    The headteacher of the boy given a detention over his maths score told the BBC that the school was under pressure after receiving a “requires improvement” rating from Ofsted.

    But increasing the focus on achievement and punishing students when they do not meet set standards comes with a cost. Pupils are at risk of becoming disengaged and unhappy at school, and may suffer damage to their self-esteem.

    When students feel their self-esteem is at risk they are more likely to engage in what are known as “defensive strategies” in a bid to protect their self-esteem. For example, students may decrease their effort or procrastinate. This allows them to attribute their potential poor performance to factors such as not trying hard enough, rather than it being a reflection of their own poor ability.

    Often feeling like a failure can lead to learned helplessness. This happens when, following a series of negative results or stressful situations, people can feel that the outcomes of their life are beyond their control and that negative events are unavoidable.

    These perceptions can result in beliefs that there is little point in trying to change the inevitable. It can lead to helpless behaviour and reduced motivation and belief in their own ability.

    A different strategy

    Self-determination theory is a psychological theory that offers a perspective beyond the traditional reward and punishment approach to motivation. It posits that as humans we are naturally keen to learn and grow, but environmental conditions can diminish this innate drive.

    To feel in control of our own actions and therefore motivated to act, we need to feel that we are competent, with opportunities to exercise our capabilities. We need to feel that we have autonomy – that we are responsible for our own behaviour. And we need to have a sense of belonging with others.

    When these three “needs” are satisfied, we are more likely to be highly motivated and to engage in tasks with enthusiasm. However, these needs can be thwarted if we receive high levels of criticism and negative performance feedback, are set work which is too challenging, or face threats and imposed goals.

    When success criteria is too high, students will not feel competent in their ability to achieve these high standards. Working just to avoid punishment means students’ behaviour is being driven by external influences and therefore they will not feel autonomous.

    Furthermore, harsh punishments will reduce students’ sense of belonging within their school environment as they will not feel valued. These punitive behaviours are more likely to result in decreased effort and disengagement.

    While it’s not an easy task for schools and teachers working in a high-stakes, results-based system, there are ways to amend practices to support rather than thwart students’ innate motivation.

    This can include ensuring that work is set at an appropriate level and expectations for success are achievable. Schools can try to foster an environment which promotes respect and care, by acknowledging students’ views and providing them with opportunities to offer their voice and provide feedback.

    In order to support students’ autonomy, where possible, schools could provide them with choice. This could include deciding what topic they want to carry out a project on. Students could choose the format for presenting their homework, such as bullet points or a letter, or handwritten or digital, that allows them to work to their strengths.

    Even providing students with a clear rationale for decisions – such as why a class is focusing on a certain topic – can help to make them feel more involved and engaged.

    By encouraging students to set their own targets which suit personal goals and aspirations for their future, rather than those set by governments and schools, we can help them to redefine their view of success and prioritise their efforts on being the best that they can be. This can help protect their self-esteem and support their motivation towards working towards these goals.

    If schools are able to focus more on the individual needs and goals of their students this could harness their natural motivation to learn and thrive.

    Hannah Wilkinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Child given detention for getting less than 90% on a test – psychology shows there are far better ways to motivate students – https://theconversation.com/child-given-detention-for-getting-less-than-90-on-a-test-psychology-shows-there-are-far-better-ways-to-motivate-students-249804

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Demi Moore: the Oscar nominee with a career defined by defiance

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Caroline Ruddell, Reader in Film and Television, Brunel University of London

    Demi Moore won the Golden Globe for best actress in January for her performance in the horror sci-fi film, The Substance. In her acceptance speech, she shared that, 30 years ago, a producer told her she was a “popcorn actress”. The implication was that she was not the kind of “serious” actor who might win awards.

    Having now also received an Oscar nomination for the role, it seems her work is finally being taken seriously. During the 1980s and 1990s, Moore was a huge star and renowned for appearing in mainstream, big budget films – hence the “popcorn” label. If you go back to the films she is best known for, however, an interesting trend emerges.

    As a researcher of gender in film and television, I’ve long been interested in Moore’s work. That’s because, while it is perhaps most explicit in The Substance, the majority of her oeuvre interrogates womanhood and power.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    In The Substance, Moore plays the fading celebrity Elisabeth Sparkle with ferocity. But the plaudits for her performance don’t mean this is something new – that ferociousness has always been there in her onscreen roles.

    As femme fatale Meredith in Disclosure (1994), for example, she dominated every scene with an aggressive power that is rare to behold. Writing about Moore’s work in 2004, film researcher Linda Ruth Williams described that power as a “dangerous sexiness”.



    Read more:
    The Substance: Demi Moore is ferocious in gloriously gory satire on Hollywood’s female ageism

    Meredith is a woman from senior executive Tom’s (Michael Douglas) past. When she walks back into his life, she comes close to derailing it entirely through a concoction of manipulative and cunning behaviour, an impressive business sense, and outright pure and simple aggression.

    At one point, Tom even says he would in no way be a physical match for her due to the amount of time she spends exercising on a StairMaster machine. Though she doesn’t win out in the end, Meredith is by far the most powerful and compelling character in the film.

    Moore’s Golden Globe acceptance speech.

    Even in Moore’s more passive roles, such as Molly in Ghost (1990), she steals the show. A big part of that is her uncanny ability to make her eyes flit between intense dark fury and overwhelming grief.

    And I can’t ignore G.I. Jane (1997). In that film, Moore shaved herself a buzzcut on camera and yelled the unforgettable line “suck my dick” at Master Chief Urgayle (Viggo Mortensen) upending, or at least unsettling, social expectations of women in the military. Much of the power of Moore’s performance in this film is in the way she physically transformed for the role. Williams described the role as a work of “corporeal shapeshifting” due to the intense physical training Moore undertook for the part.

    In A Few Good Men (1992), her character, Lieutenant Commander Joanne Galloway, rivals all others with her fierce intellect and knowledge of the law. While Tom Cruise’s Lieutenant Daniel Kaffee wows in the courtroom, it is Galloway’s knowledge of the case and refusal to bow to patriarchal power (largely embodied by Jack Nicholson’s Colonel Jessep) that sees them through.

    Ageing in Hollywood

    In September 2024, I was interviewed for an article about older women in film and television by the journalist Christobel Hastings.

    In it, Hastings stated that “Hollywood has a long history of ignoring female actors”. Citing several research studies, she noted that women’s careers peak at age 30 in the industry, while men’s peak 15 years or more later.

    But she also made the case that there has been an increase in the diversity of roles available to older actresses both in film and television. Such movement for female actresses has long been championed by the Geena Davis Institute, a research organisation focusing on equitable representation in media, for over 20 years.

    If I were to sum up Moore’s career with one word, it would be defiance. And now, with The Substance, she has defied expectations once again by joining the (thankfully increasing) ranks of female actresses who are finding meaty roles as they head into middle or older age.

    Caroline Ruddell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Demi Moore: the Oscar nominee with a career defined by defiance – https://theconversation.com/demi-moore-the-oscar-nominee-with-a-career-defined-by-defiance-249765

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Understanding the cultural experience of keeping warm can help us embrace clean energy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Becky Shaw, Professor in Fine Art, Birmingham City University

    The way we heat our homes is a major contributor to the greenhouse gases that are heating up the planet. So moving to more sustainable home heating is vital for decarbonisation and meeting emissions targets.

    Campaigns usually offer technological solutions as well as environmental and economic incentives. But they rarely recognise that the way we heat our homes is a way of life – connected to our identities, relationships, communities, culture, values and the “practice” of making a home.

    Changing something as fundamental as heating can bring up complex feelings. To understand how people are connected to the way they heat their homes, we – a group of academics at Sheffield Hallam University, Birmingham City University and universities in Finland, Sweden and Romania – embarked on a project that combined history, art, and social science research to find out how cultures and histories of heating can inform fair and effective change.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    The Justheat research project explores the experience of eight communities in four nations that have had different heating transition journeys. These are: Sweden, which is at an advanced stage of energy transition; Finland, where a culture of burning wood is in conflict with decarbonisation; Romania, with a hesitant energy plan where experiences of heating poverty make change unpopular; and the UK which has a “lagging” uptake of low carbon heating sources.

    We gathered oral histories from selected communities to encourage personal reflection on the past through the perspective of the present. Oral histories encourage people to decide what is important to tell – not the researcher. We collected more than 300 accounts of changes in the way people heated their homes since 1940.

    Artists were appointed in each country to create artworks that highlighted various aspects of the oral histories. This included Finnish painter and textiles artist Henna Aho, Romanian photographer Denise Lobont and video artist Ram Krishna Ranjan, who lives in Sweden. I am both the project UK artist and co-ordinator of the other artists. All were selected because they had an existing interest in home heating and had experience of collaboration.

    When listening to people’s stories, the artists noted how detailed descriptions or emotional intensity stood out. These included reflections on how children found fires to be a source of play (one participant described “crashing” toy planes into the flames), a son’s guilt for not helping his mother with making the fire, and a woman’s memory of a friend becoming ill from severe cold. The artists were inspired by the creative ways people mixed past, present and future in their stories.

    Each nation and story is unique, but the tension between government (or other forms of authority) and communities was a common theme. For example, in Finland people value wood as a secure fuel that they can grow and control themselves – but this means some people move away from the efficient and sustainable networked heating solutions that are already in use there.

    In Sweden, oral histories showed a strong trust in government energy policy, but renters struggled with the ways that landlords can limit heating. In Romania, a severe lack of energy during the fall of Communism in 1989 and austerity measures to pay off national debt led to desperate households burning furniture to keep warm.

    In Romania and some other countries, descriptions of past distrust in the government often accompanies a negative reaction to current policies, fearing that they will reduce individual control and benefit.

    In the UK the last mining pits closed as recently as 2013, so the pain of losing livelihoods and communities is still felt. Some of our UK oral histories documented how coal provided people with a sense of security because they could control how long the fuel would last.

    Coal was described as a total way of life, linking home, family, work, community, love, food, safety and care. Despite the dirt and drudgery of coal home heating, the joy of getting warm by the fire was seared into people’s memory. While there were stories of feeling cold, they often described feeling joy in the contrast of being cold and then getting warm. This was seen as part of the intense joy of radiant heat.

    When gas central heating was rolled out in the 1970s and 1980s, our oral histories described it as “marvellous” in its speed and cleanliness, but some participants also felt that it lacked the comfort, cheer and invitation to gather together that a solid fuel fire offers.

    Despite Sweden’s successful electric heating network, the Swedish oral histories recorded an enduring joy in the use of wood-burning stoves to heat their summer houses. This did not counter their appreciation of electric networked heating, but the delight of an additional fire and its capacity to draw people together, persists.

    Combined, the oral histories and the artworks inspired by them let us understand how past changes to the way we heat our homes have affected us. We are currently sharing the artists’ work with communities and local energy leaders, and we are interested to see how artworks might encourage discussion.

    Current research and policy focuses on technological change to generate rapid decarbonisation. However, no change can be made without getting households on board. As part of this, we need to understand how past experiences influence communities’ response to energy change.

    Changing the way we heat our homes is likely to be attractive only if it offers a significant improvement in the experience of keeping warm, rather than merely appealing to us in economic terms, or for environmental reasons.

    Becky Shaw receives funding from Arts and Humanities Research Council and Birmingham City University.

    – ref. Understanding the cultural experience of keeping warm can help us embrace clean energy – https://theconversation.com/understanding-the-cultural-experience-of-keeping-warm-can-help-us-embrace-clean-energy-244710

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine war: game theory reveals the complexities (and fragility) of a nuclear deterrent

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Renaud Foucart, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Lancaster University Management School, Lancaster University

    Since the cold war, deterrence has been a fundamental principle underpinning peace between global superpowers. The idea is that if two sides have nuclear weapons, the consequences of actually using them mean the button never gets pressed.

    But the strategy goes beyond the countries which own the weapons. In practice, for instance, most of Europe relies on the US for a nuclear “umbrella” of deterrence. And any country with nuclear weapons can offer guarantees of peace to others.

    This is what happened in 1994 when Russia, the UK and the US signed the Budapest memorandum in which Ukraine renounced its nuclear weapons from the Soviet era in exchange for a promise to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine”. This was widely seen as a good idea for Ukraine and the world, reducing the risk of a nuclear accident.

    But that memorandum has not served Ukraine well. As North Korea, India, Pakistan or Israel know, owning nuclear weapons – even against international agreements – ensures your protection. A piece of paper does not.

    And now, across the world, the ability to offer the equivalent of a Budapest memorandum to other countries has vanished. A key part of the theory behind a successful nuclear deterrent has fallen away.

    This is described in game theory – the mathematical study of strategic interactions – as the idea of a “credible commitment”. To deter a military invasion, the country offering protection must be ready to do something that hurts its own interests if it happens.

    In the case of Ukraine, this has so far involved allies sending costly military equipment, financial support and enduring the small risk of further escalation of the conflict. Being a trustworthy guarantor is a matter of international reputation: a country that delivers is considered credible. But no one will trust a guarantor that breaks its promises.



    Read more:
    Ukraine war: what is the Budapest Memorandum and why has Russia’s invasion torn it up?

    And while credible retaliation is important, so too is avoiding escalation. For it is also in everyone’s interest to reduce the probability of a catastrophic outcome.

    Over the years, the small number of countries with internationally accepted nuclear arsenals (the US, UK, France, Russia and China) have developed nuclear doctrines. These are sophisticated and often deliberately opaque rules for escalation and deescalation.

    The Nobel prize-winning economist, Thomas Schelling, argues that the uncertainty around these rules is what makes them so effective. It strengthens a system in which protection can be offered to other countries in exchange for them not developing their own nuclear capabilities.

    War games

    Game theory research has also shed light on the complexity of these rules of engagement (or non-engagement), such as the expectation (and necessity) of credible retaliation against an attack.

    Imagine, for example, that China launches a nuclear bomb that completely destroys Manchester. A rational British prime minister may prefer to end hostilities and accept the destruction of a major city rather than retaliate and risk the total destruction of human life.

    But for the deterrent to actually work, they must retaliate – or expect to see Birmingham and London disappear.

    Another difficulty comes in finding the appropriate response to varying levels of provocation. When Russian-affiliated soldiers were found guilty by Dutch courts of downing a Malaysian Airlines civilian flight with 298 people onboard, including 196 Dutch nationals, there was no talk of proportional retaliation. No one seriously contemplated shooting down a Russian plane or bombing a small Russian city.

    Nor was there any retaliation to Russian interventions in European elections, or to the sabotage of infrastructure in Baltic states, or to murders and attempted murders on European soil.

    And after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the reaction of the west was consistent with principles designed to avoid escalation. Sanctions were imposed on Russia, military aid was sent to Ukraine.

    But to abandon Ukraine now, forcing it to cede territory after three years of fighting, death, and destruction, would be a significant shift. It would represent a clear and deliberate abandonment of the international guarantees Ukraine thought it had.

    Arsenals and agreements

    Game theory also suggests that the most likely consequence of abandoning those commitments is that no country will repeat Ukraine’s mistake of giving up its nuclear capabilities. And no country will want to place their trust in potentially unreliable allies.

    Europe for instance, will aim to develop its own nuclear umbrella, potentially combining French and British capabilities. It will also hasten to integrate the next likely targets of Moscow’s military ambitions.

    This will include the parts of Ukraine not annexed by Russia, but also Georgia, already invaded by Russia in 2008, and Moldova, partly occupied by Russia.

    The second consequence is that the west will no longer have a good reason to convince countries to abandon their nuclear ambitions. That means no credible deal for North Korea, no convincing offer for Iran, and even fewer prospects to end the nuclear programmes of Pakistan, India or Israel.

    Looking at the ruins of Mariupol or Gaza City, and comparing them to Pyongyang, Tel Aviv or Tehran, many countries will conclude that a nuclear weapon is a better way to ensure security than any piece of paper.

    So if the west does abandon Ukraine, game theory suggests that the world should expect a proliferation of nuclear powers. Each will need to learn, as Russia and the US have, to live on the threshold of diastrous confrontation. But research shows that establishing a situation of reduced risk takes time.

    And that could be a time filled with increased potential for events reminiscent of the Cuban missile crisis – and a growing belief that nuclear war is inevitable.

    Renaud Foucart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ukraine war: game theory reveals the complexities (and fragility) of a nuclear deterrent – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-game-theory-reveals-the-complexities-and-fragility-of-a-nuclear-deterrent-249995

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Five tips to find what really brings you joy outside of work

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alison Bishop, Lecturer in Positive Psychology Coaching, University of East London

    Not long ago I attended a concert. It was a band that I had been waiting a while to see and so I was excited to be there in the crowd. Part way through, they played my favourite song and I noticed that I felt something different.

    It felt like a pinnacle moment where the emotion of joy felt expansive and unstoppable. In that moment, I felt more alive with all my senses of my surroundings heightened and yet so much more connected to the core of who I know myself to be.

    I first set out to write about finding joy, as if joy was out there in the world waiting for us to find it. However, the story of the concert shows us that this is not the case.

    Not everyone likes the band that I saw and not everyone in the concert had the same experience as me. This tells us that joy is more personal, an inside job, rather than something to find outside ourselves.

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    The psychologist Chris Meadows suggests that joy is a feeling that comes from viewing an event in our lives as being meaningful to us or good for us.

    Joy is not just a singular experience, there are different types of joy, according to Meadows. In his study of joy he writes about the muted experience of “serene joy”, which aims at restoring or maintaining equilibrium in the body. Then there is “excited joy”, which is linked to pursuing goals.

    “Individuated joy” is felt while alone while “affiliative joy” is shared with others. Meadow’s study into the phenomenon of joy suggests that social experiences of joy occur more often than solo ones and result in what we know as bonding experiences.

    “Anticipatory joy” occurs when the fulfilment of a goal is imminent and then “consummatory joy” happens when the goal has been achieved. There is also an element of feeling blessed or that what has been achieved has exceeded expectations.

    In addition to the thought processes that lead to joy, there are many other elements that need to be in place. Safe, familiar surroundings are key in enabling us to be present in the moment to support relaxed equilibrium. When we feel safe and relaxed, we are more able to laugh and play and explore new ideas.

    Playfulness that’s aimless but results in fairly predictable outcomes, allows us to switch off our inner critic and focus on the good feelings of being in the moment with joy. This brings a sense of ease in that whatever happens, requires very little effort on our part.

    Here are five tips on how to find what brings you joy in its many forms:

    1. Be present

    “Be in the moment” is easy to say but harder to do.

    Joy exists in the present, therefore, we need to be there to experience it. This might mean that sometimes we need to ditch the phone and not video something to post or watch later as doing that prevents us becoming immersed in the here and now. This is about making our own experience more important than the “likes” of others.

    2. Listen to your inner voice

    Next, turn up the volume on your inner voice.

    As joy is unique to each of us, we need to hear our own voice to find out what will bring us joy. To do this, it helps to create specificity around the goals that we aspire to in the future so that we are clear about what we want to achieve.

    I love the theme tune for The Pirates of the Caribbean and want to be able to play it on the piano. To make this goal specific, I need to decide what my success criteria is. It might be, I want to play to the end without stopping, or I want to get to the end without stopping and to play all of the notes on the sheet music without mistakes. Only I can know whether I would feel more joyful by achieving the second goal over the first.

    Being specific means we will clearly know when that goal fulfilment is either imminent or achieved. So, the more specific we are the better. The same goes for looking at the experiences that have brought us joy in the past. By reflecting on these experiences, we can learn things about ourselves that lead to us being able to create more joy.

    3. Don’t listen to your inner critic

    It helps to switch off your inner critic, or at least turn the volume on this down.

    It is not possible to be playful and feel safe and free, while we constantly are censoring ourselves. So, tell the inner critic that it is OK for you to be you.

    4. Find your tribe

    These are people who enjoy the same things as you. Being with other people who are like us enables us to feel freer to express ourselves in ways that are congruent with who we are.

    5. Tune into the little things

    Finally, pay attention to the little things, as they actually are the big things. Joy comes from the most unexpected places. By noticing when we feel joy we can create more of those experiences in our lives so that we can truly experience that joie de vivre (the joy of living).

    Alison Bishop does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Five tips to find what really brings you joy outside of work – https://theconversation.com/five-tips-to-find-what-really-brings-you-joy-outside-of-work-238722

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Land reform in South Africa doesn’t need a new law: the state should release property it owns – economists

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Johann Kirsten, Director of the Bureau for Economic Research, Stellenbosch University

    South Africa’s new Expropriation Act, which was signed into law by President Cyril Ramaphosa in January 2025, has been at the centre of a political storm set off by the new US administration under President Donald Trump.

    The Expropriation Act is not entirely new. It mainly updates the existing legislation from 1975 to align it with the constitution of democratic South Africa. But some have misinterpreted it as making room for land grabs by the state. That’s not what it does in reality. Property rights remain intact in South Africa.

    Hot on the heels of this furore has been a notice from the minister of land reform and rural development, Mzwanele Nyhontso, that the government is embarking on a new bit of legislation, the “Equitable Access to Land Bill”.

    There have been discussions over the last 10 years about developing a land reform framework bill or land redistribution bill. The main idea is to foster conditions that enable citizens to get access to land equitably. Land ownership was heavily skewed towards white people under apartheid.

    The parliamentary committee heard from the minister on 20 February 2025 that there were gaps between the white paper on South African land policy and existing legislation. The bill seeks to close the gaps. It would provide for, among other things, principles for access to land, access to land by the state and citizens, the identification and selection of beneficiaries, applications and records for land allocations, a register of agricultural land, notification of present land ownership, land ownership ceilings, a land tribunal and regulations.

    Based on our years of work on land reform and agricultural policy it’s unclear to us why such a bill is necessary. We believe there are two reasons a new law would be superfluous. Firstly, South Africa already has roughly 16 laws that address the issue of land. Secondly, policymakers tend to ignore the facts on land reform progress.

    It is hard not to view the obsession with new legislation by every new minister as a distraction from the core issues. The minister should be focusing on distributing the land the government has acquired to black farmers and give them title deeds. This will be sufficient effort to build an inclusive agricultural sector, while continuing with existing programmes of land acquisition from the open market.

    There are also other areas that should be reformed that would make a difference. These include making more finance available to aspirant black farmers and fixing the deeds office to reduce land registration times.

    What’s in place

    There should be no need for new legislation if one considers all the different pieces of legislation and government programmes that are already aimed at a more equitable distribution of land. There are at least 16 laws related to farm land and the restitution and redistribution process. These include:

    • Preservation and Development of Agricultural Land Act, signed into
      law in January 2025

    • State Land Disposal Act, 1961 (Act No. 48 of 1961)

    • Deeds Registries Act, 1937 (Act No. 47 of 1937)

    • Land Reform: Provision of Land and Assistance Act, 1993 (Act No. 126 of
      1993)

    • Restitution of Land Rights Act, 1994 (Act No. 22 of 1994)

    • Communal Property Associations Act, 1996 (Act No. 28 of 1996)

    • Land Reform (Labour Tenants) Act, 1996 (Act No. 3 of 1996)

    • Protection of Informal Land Rights Act, 1996 (Act No. 31 of 1996)

    • Extension of Security of Tenure Act, 1997 (Act No. 62 of 1997).

    In addition, South African policymakers tend to ignore the facts on land reform progress.

    As we have argued before, the mix of government programmes to restore land rights and redistribute land has already addressed 25% of the total area of farm land defined and registered by formal title deeds. This means that 19.5 million hectares of the 77.5 million hectares of South Africa’s farm land have been affected by the government land reform programmes.

    There is an important nuance here: 2.5 million hectares have been acquired by the state and are now owned by the State Land Holding Account.

    Calls for the state to redistribute this land to black farmers have been falling on deaf ears, and black farmers continue to despair.

    The government has been slow to distribute the land it has acquired. This shows that the problem of South Africa’s land reform is not only about acquisition but also the distribution of land with title deeds to beneficiaries.

    Included in the total of 19.5 million hectares are private purchases of farm land by black South Africans. We estimate a total of 2.4 million hectares have been acquired in this way up to the end of 2024.

    These individuals used their own funds or borrowed funds to acquire the land without using any of the state programmes.

    Some answers

    We have always argued that the private transactions where no bureaucrats are involved happen much quicker than any government programmes. The table below shows the relevant statistics for the last four years and confirms the argument.

    The table shows that over the last four years private land transactions (that is without any involvement of bureaucrats) have contributed 32% to the total area of farmland transferred or restituted. The land claims process, in terms of the Restitution of Land Rights Act, has made the biggest contribution of 60% (with 36% of land restituted via financial compensation and 24% of land transferred to claimants). Other government land reform programmes made a very small contribution.

    Do we have more equitable access to farm land (or rural land) after 30 years of democracy? To answer this question, we need to take into account the occupation of farm land under traditional tenure arrangements and occupation on land owned by the state, including the South African Development Trust land as well as the land recently acquired by the state under the Proactive Land Acquisition Strategy programme, which is in most cases leased to black beneficiaries for short terms.

    In addition, we account for the land redistribution programme and the land transferred back to land claimants. The numbers below provide an interesting picture of black ownership of rural land in South Africa. In some provinces, equitable access has shown remarkable progress, as shown in the table below.

    Instead of a new law, this is what’s needed

    First, access to affordable and preferential finance for land acquisition by black farmers would make an important contribution to equitable access. But no new law is needed to enable this. The answer lies in changing the way the Land Bank is funded so that it can provide affordable finance to aspirant farmers. This would be a game changer.

    Secondly, government should act on the president’s proposal to establish the Land Reform Agency, release more unused state land for agricultural use and change the regulations to facilitate private land donations to beneficiaries.

    Thirdly, fix the processes and data issues in the deeds office, which could reduce the time and costs to register property transfers.

    Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and a member of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC).

    Johann Kirsten does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Land reform in South Africa doesn’t need a new law: the state should release property it owns – economists – https://theconversation.com/land-reform-in-south-africa-doesnt-need-a-new-law-the-state-should-release-property-it-owns-economists-250674

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What do I do with expired medicine? Don’t use it, for a start…

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Renier Coetzee, Associate Professor, University of the Western Cape

    There are many risks associated with taking expired medicine and with not properly disposing of medication. JGI/Tom Grill

    When last did a headache have you reaching into your medicine cabinet – and finding a bottle of aspirin that expired three years ago? Did you take it anyway? And, if you decided instead to get rid of those out-of-date painkillers, how did you do it? If you chose to throw it in the garbage or flush it down the toilet, you’re far from alone: a 2020 research review found that “disposal of pharmaceuticals by garbage and sewer is still the most common method in many countries with the absence of the proper disposal of expired medications from the patient side”.

    The problem is that both using expired medication and disposing of it unsafely comes with significant health, economic and environmental risks.

    The Conversation Africa asked pharmacy professor Renier Coetzee, who is also the vice-president of the Pharmaceutical Society of South Africa, about the risks posed by using expired medication, and how to safely dispose of expired and surplus medicines.

    Why is it dangerous to take expired medication?

    Expiration dates for medicines are determined through stability testing. This involves assessing how long a medicine remains safe and effective under various storage conditions. Manufacturers typically provide conservative estimates of expiration dates to ensure a medicine’s quality and safety.

    Medications degrade over time. That means they may not work as intended once they reach and pass their expiry date. This is of particular concern with medicines like antibiotics: subtherapeutic doses (those which are too low to work properly and so do not fully treat the illness or infection) can contribute to antimicrobial resistance.



    Read more:
    Antibiotic resistance threatens to “undo a century of medical progress”: 5 essential reads

    Antimicrobial resistance occurs when bacteria, viruses or fungi stop responding to medicines (like antibiotics). This makes infections harder to treat. And that, in turn, increases the risk of disease spread, severe illness and death.

    Reduced potency in chronic disease medications like insulin or heart medication is also a worry, since this can have serious health consequences.

    Some expired medications can break down into harmful compounds. One example is ciprofloxacin. This antibiotic is used mostly to treat infections in the urinary and upper and lower respiratory tracts. Studies have shown that it can degrade into toxic byproducts that may harm the kidneys (and be hazardous to the environment if not properly disposed of).

    Exposure to heat, humidity and light can accelerate the breakdown of active ingredients. This applies to both scheduled medicines, prescribed by a doctor, and over-the-counter medicines.

    Consider paracetamol, which anyone can buy for pain and fever. A year-old paracetamol tablet may not seem dangerous – but if it’s degraded, it could be less effective in treating pain or fever, leading to unintended consequences like delayed treatment or overuse in an attempt to achieve relief. If potency is reduced, users might take a higher dose than needed, increasing the risk of overdose or side effects.

    It’s not just tablets and capsules that expire. Liquid medications, such as cough syrups and eye drops, are particularly vulnerable to contamination once expired, as the preservatives they contain lose their potency. This increases the risk of bacterial growth, which could lead to infections.

    Expired medications left in the home, particularly in unmarked containers, also increase the risk of accidental ingestion, especially by children.

    While some expired medications may still retain potency, there is no guarantee of safety. Safe disposal is essential to prevent misuse and potential harm to both individuals and the environment.

    Can I throw expired or surplus medicine in the bin or flush it down the toilet?

    I strongly discourage it. So do professional bodies like the Pharmaceutical Society of South Africa and the South African Pharmacy Council.

    For starters, it’s bad for the environment. Medications discarded in household trash can leach active pharmaceutical ingredients into soil and groundwater, potentially contaminating sources of drinking water.

    Flushing medicines down the sink or toilet introduces these substances directly into sewage systems. They often bypass conventional wastewater treatment processes; in Cape Town, South Africa, for example, many wastewater facilities don’t perform tertiary treatments. That allows poorly treated effluents, chemical compounds and pharmaceutical pollution to enter aquatic ecosystems. That’s bad news for wildlife and can disrupt ecosystems.



    Read more:
    Marine life in a South African bay is full of chemical pollutants

    Trace amounts of pharmaceuticals in water supplies pose risks to human health, too. Such low concentrations are generally considered to pose minimal direct health risks to humans. But there are concerns about their potential impact on antimicrobial resistance and endocrine disruption. Endocrine disruption refers to the interference caused by certain chemicals which can mimic, block, or alter the human body’s natural hormones. The process can lead to various adverse health effects.

    What are the safest, most responsible disposal methods?

    The preferred method for disposing of unused or expired medications is through drug take-back programmes or authorised collection sites. These programmes are designed to provide a safe, convenient and responsible means for individuals to dispose of unused or expired medications.

    In South Africa, the South African Pharmacy Council mandates that only authorised personnel, such as pharmacists or designated officials, may dispose of medicines, and they must produce a certificate of destruction to be stored for at least five years.

    However, a study among healthcare professionals in the country revealed that only 23.5% participated in proper medicine destruction within their facilities. This, as well as similar research I conducted with some colleagues in Australia, indicates a need for improved education and practices regarding pharmaceutical waste disposal.

    In other African countries, formalised medication take-back programmes are less common. Safe disposal methods must be established and promoted across the continent.



    Read more:
    We found traces of drugs in a dam that supplies Nigeria’s capital city

    If more formal options are unavailable, you could mix medications with unappealing substances (like used coffee grounds or cat litter) and seal the mixture in a plastic bag before throwing it away. This can help to prevent accidental ingestion by children or animals. It also keeps medications away from toilets or drains, thereby lessening water pollution and harm to aquatic life.

    However, this approach is less than ideal and should only be a last resort.

    Renier Coetzee is affiliated with TB Proof and Touching Nations.

    – ref. What do I do with expired medicine? Don’t use it, for a start… – https://theconversation.com/what-do-i-do-with-expired-medicine-dont-use-it-for-a-start-248919

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 500 years ago, German peasants revolted – but their faith that the Protestant Reformation stood for freedom was dashed by Martin Luther and the nobility

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Michael Bruening, Professor of History, Missouri University of Science and Technology

    A sketch of groups of peasants wandering around the countryside during the German Peasants’ War. Warwick Press via Wikimedia Commons.

    Five hundred years ago, in the winter of 1524-1525, bands of peasants roamed the German countryside seeking recruits. It was the start of the German Peasants’ War, the largest uprising in Europe before the French Revolution. The peasants’ goal was to overturn serfdom and create a fairer society grounded on the Christian Bible.

    For months, they seized their landlords’ monasteries and castles. By March 1525, the peasant armies had grown to encompass tens of thousands of peasants from Alsace to Austria and from Switzerland to Saxony.

    The peasants had economic grievances, to be sure, but they also drew inspiration from the message of freedom, or “Fryheit” in German, being preached by theologian Martin Luther, who had recently launched the Protestant Reformation.

    Luther’s rejection of the peasants’ cause, however, would help lead to their crushing defeat.

    I am a scholar of the Reformation, and I included the peasants’ list of demands in my book on the debates of the era. The question of the legitimacy of the peasants’ uprising was one of the most consequential debates of the era.

    Luther’s message of freedom

    In 1517, eight years before the German Peasants’ War, Luther launched the Reformation with his 95 Theses. The theses reflected Luther’s belief that the pope and the Catholic Church were preying on the poor by selling them indulgences, taking their money for a false promise that their sins would be forgiven.

    Luther taught instead that God freely forgives the sins of believers. In one of his most famous early treatises, “The Freedom of a Christian,” written in 1520, Luther argued that because they are saved or “justified” by faith alone, Christians are entirely free from the need to do works to merit salvation. This included fasting, going on pilgrimages and buying indulgences.

    Luther’s attacks on the Catholic Church, clergy and monks quickly grew more vehement. He and his allies lambasted them for fleecing the peasants and the poor through usury, a practice of lending money at high rates of interest. Since the Bible provided no support for such practices, they argued, the poor should be free of them.

    The Twelve Articles

    In her 2025 book “Summer of Fire and Blood,” Reformation scholar Lyndal Roper argues that the religious element of the peasants’ war was central. The German peasants were among the first to try to unlock the revolutionary potential of Reformation teachings to fight social and economic injustice.

    The peasants’ efforts to do so can be seen in the most important statement of their demands: The Twelve Articles. The articles are rooted in Reformation ideas and demanded, among other things, each village’s right to elect its own pastor and to be exempt from payments and duties not found in the Bible.

    A pamphlet that peasants distributed with their Twelve Articles in 1525.
    Otto Henne am Rhyn: Cultural History of the German People, via Wikimedia Commons

    Most important was the message of freedom in the third article: “Considering that Christ has delivered and redeemed us all, without exception … it is consistent with Scripture that we should be free.” It was a cry for equality based on Christ’s redemption of all, rich and poor alike.

    The Twelve Articles were hugely successful, going through 25 printings in just two months. Since the vast majority of peasants were illiterate, this was an astounding number.

    For the lower classes, the Reformation promised to break up not just the spiritual monopoly held by the Catholic Church but the entrenched feudal system that kept them oppressed. Their desire for freedom was at the same time a denunciation of serfdom.

    The peasants were willing to take up arms to secure their freedom. In winter 1524-1525, the peasants were able to capture castles and monasteries without much bloodshed. But starting in the spring of 1525, the uprising became increasingly violent. On Easter Sunday, the peasants shockingly slaughtered two dozen knights in the city of Weinsberg, Germany. A torrent of bloodshed would follow.

    Luther’s rejection of the peasants

    Although Luther may have provided the initial inspiration for the peasants, he denounced their revolt in the harshest terms. In his treatise “Admonition to Peace,” Luther complained that the peasants had made “Christian liberty an utterly carnal thing,” which “would make all men equal … and that is impossible.”

    Responding to the revolt, Luther produced a tract entitled “Against the Murdering and Robbing Hordes of Peasants.” “Let everyone who can,” he infamously wrote, “smite, slay, and stab” the rebellious peasants. The rulers did just that.

    The nobility had been slow to react to the peasants’ initial incursions, but when they finally organized their own armies, the peasants didn’t stand a chance. On the battlefield, the nobles’ cavalry and superior artillery brutally cut down the rebels. Many who escaped the battlefield were hunted down and executed.

    The exact number of those killed are not known, but estimates place the number at around 100,000. As Roper notes, “this was slaughter on a vast scale.”

    Consequences for the Reformation

    English historian A. G. Dickens famously described the Reformation as an “urban event”, meaning that the movement’s important developments took place in cities. The German Peasants’ War shows the idea to be wrong.

    In its first years, the Reformation galvanized the hopes and dreams of Germans in both town and country. To peasants and townsfolk, it seemed to promise the chance for a complete reordering of an unjust society.

    Luther’s rejection of the peasants had important long-term consequences. His decision to side with the princes transformed the Reformation from a grassroots movement into an act of state. Everywhere the Protestant reformers went, they sought to work with the proper authorities. The close cooperation of Christian leaders and secular authorities would last for centuries.

    For their part, the European peasantry grew wary of the Christian leaders who seemed to have abandoned them. Social uprisings over the next centuries lost the religious character of the 1525 conflict and would climax in the decidedly secular French Revolution.

    Michael Bruening does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 500 years ago, German peasants revolted – but their faith that the Protestant Reformation stood for freedom was dashed by Martin Luther and the nobility – https://theconversation.com/500-years-ago-german-peasants-revolted-but-their-faith-that-the-protestant-reformation-stood-for-freedom-was-dashed-by-martin-luther-and-the-nobility-246378

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Butchers, bakers, candlestick-makers − and prostitutes: The women working behind the scenes in papal Avignon

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Joelle Rollo-Koster, Professor of Medieval History, University of Rhode Island

    The papal palace in Avignon, where the pope’s court was based for much of the 14th century. Jean-Marc Rosier from http://www.rosier.pro/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    In the medieval church, women’s roles were limited – usually some form of enclosure and celibacy, such as becoming an anchoress walled up alone for life, or a nun in a classic convent. On the other extreme were a few dramatic examples of women who made history for the church while flying in the face of gender norms: heroes such as Joan of Arc.

    The full truth, though, is more complicated. Medieval women were there all along, even in priests’ own houses. In her book “The Manly Priest,” historian Jennifer Thibodeaux reminds us that while celibacy was always the church’s ideal, it was not truly enforced until later in the Middle Ages. At least until the 11th century, some priests had wives and children who were not considered illegitimate. Even after the 14th-century Black Death, clerical households with wives and children thrived in Italy.

    As the church’s notions of illicit sex and illegitimacy hardened, however, its attitudes toward women did, too. Medieval scholars – all men – defined women’s temperament in negative terms: Women were libidinous, frivolous, unfaithful, capricious, unpredictable and easily tempted. They required constant surveillance and were kept away from clerics, at least in theory. They certainly could not hold overt positions in the pope’s court unless they were his mother or sister.

    Still, another reality emerges. The church may not have seen women as equals, but nevertheless, their work was key to the workings and finances of the papal court and its surroundings. The fact is made obvious in the archives by simply following the money. It was hardly glamorous work but necessary for the functioning of the papal court.

    A page from a 15th-century edition of ‘The Decameron’ shows a laundress working on the beach.
    Bibliothèque de l’Arsenal via Wikimedia Commons

    Vatican payroll

    The Vatican Archives’ account registers make it possible to trace who was paid and for what at the medieval papal court in Avignon, where the papacy was based for most of the 14th century. Amid the tedious task of deciphering various medieval shorthand systems, which organize expenses into categories such as “extraordinary wages,” “liturgical ornaments,” “war expenses” or “wax account,” I encountered surprises: Women appear in the lists of salaried employees at the medieval papal court.

    Furthermore, they were involved in tasks that “touched” the leader of the church. Even a pope’s clothes need making, mending and washing. Women crafted an ornate style highly appreciated by the pontiffs – glorifying them with pure white linen and gold embroidery. The Vatican Apostolic Archives’ Introitus and Exitus, medieval financial records, provide substantial evidence that women made sacerdotal ornaments and garments.

    Between 1364-1374, the registers recorded the pope’s launderesses – women otherwise lost to history. Among them were Katherine, the wife of one Guillaume Bertrand; Bertrande of St. Spirit, who washed all the papal linens upon his election; and Alasacie de la Meynia, the wife of Peter Mathei, who did the pope’s laundry for the Christmas festivities of 1373 and is mentioned again in 1375.

    These women were all wives of officers at the papal court. Records identified them by their full name, which was not the case for everyone on the pope’s payroll. This is important: The records gave them real presence, unlike most female laborers.

    A woman doing laundry appears in the Codices Palatini germanici, a German medieval manuscript.
    Heidelberg University Library

    Later records were less clear. Between the 1380s and 1410s, liturgical garments were made and washed by various women, including the unnamed wife of Peter Bertrand, a doctor of law; Agnes, wife of Master Francis Ribalta, a physician of the pope; another Alasacie, wife of carpenter John Beulayga; and the unnamed wife of the pope’s head cook, Guido de Vallenbrugenti – alias Brucho.

    Only one woman, Marie Quigi Fernandi Sanci de Turre, appears without a male relative. As time progressed, women’s names were not systematically recorded.

    Most of these later women, too, were married to curial officers who maintained rank at court by working in trade, medicine or the military. Women were never paid directly; their husbands collected their salaries. Still, this was not “unseen” labor but a salaried occupation, explicitly recorded.

    A 15th-century painting of the papal palace in Avignon, from the artist workshop of Maître de Boucicaut.
    Bibliothèque Nationale via Wikimedia Commons

    Working day – and night

    Many other women immigrated to work in Avignon. According to a partial survey of the city’s heads of households in 1371, about 15% were women. Most had traveled far and wide – from elsewhere in present-day France, as well as Germany and Italy – to reach the papal court and a chance at employment.

    Of the total female heads of household, 20% declared an occupation. The range of these women’s trades is staggering. There were fruit-sellers, tailoresses, tavern-keepers, butchers, candlemakers, carpenters and stonecutters. Women in Avignon worked as fish-sellers, goldsmiths, glove-makers, pastry-bakers, spice merchants and chicken-sellers. They were sword-makers, furriers, booksellers, bread-resellers and bath-keepers.

    An illustration from ‘Theatrum sanitatis,’ a 13th-century Latin manuscript by Giovannino de Grassi.
    De Agostini Picture Library/Getty Images

    Bathhouses, the “stews,” were often brothels. Prostitution was considered a legal occupation in Avignon and controlled by the church. Marguerite de Porcelude, known as “the Huntress,” paid an annual tax to the diocese for her lodging. Several prostitutes rented tenements from the convent of St. Catherine, and Marguerite Busaffi, daughter of a prominent banker, owned a brothel in the city.

    In 1337, the marshal of the Roman court – the highest secular judicial officer – taxed prostitutes and procurers two sols per week. Pope Innocent VI, scandalized by the practice, annulled it in 1358.

    Still, because of the general taint associated with the sex trade, the church attempted to reform prostitutes and convert them into nuns. The Avignon popes locked them up in a special convent, the Repenties, set up far from the center of town.

    A brothel scene illustrated by Maïtre François in a 15th-century edition of St. Augustine’s book ‘City of God.’
    National Library of the Netherlands via Wikimedia Commons

    Eventually, the establishment became a form of prison for “unruly” women – those who were pregnant out of wedlock. But for some hundred years, groups of ladies of the night took vows and lived as nuns there, controlling the affairs of their own convent with an iron fist.

    In the 1370s, Pope Gregory XI offered the nuns and their donors a plenary indulgence, a forgiveness of sins. They followed a rule emphasizing that regardless of their pasts, abstinence and continence could make them spiritually “chaste.”

    The ladies of the convent left detailed records of the properties they acquired. In 1384, its leaders petitioned the papal treasury, demanding arrears they were owed from a priest’s donation – and received what was due. Few medieval women had the chutzpah to petition a court for past dues, much less the pope’s. The Repenties did.

    Joelle Rollo-Koster does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Butchers, bakers, candlestick-makers − and prostitutes: The women working behind the scenes in papal Avignon – https://theconversation.com/butchers-bakers-candlestick-makers-and-prostitutes-the-women-working-behind-the-scenes-in-papal-avignon-249345

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Colorado is tackling air pollution in vulnerable neighborhoods by regulating 5 air toxics

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jenni Shearston, Assistant Professor of Integrative Physiology, University of Colorado Boulder

    The Suncor Refinery in Commerce City, Colo., is a known air polluter. RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post via Getty Images

    The Globeville, Elyria-Swansea and Commerce City communities in metro Denver are choked by air pollution from nearby highways, an oil refinery and a Superfund site.

    While these neighborhoods have long suffered from air pollution, they’re not the only ones in Colorado.

    Now, Colorado is taking a major step to protect people from air pollutants that cause cancer or other major health problems, called “air toxics.” For the first time, the state is developing its own state-level air toxic health standards.

    In north Denver, the 80216 ZIP code has been named one of the most polluted in the country. Rocky Mountain PBS created a two-part documentary about the history of this area and the impact the pollution has on current residents.

    In January 2025 Colorado identified five air toxics as “priority” chemicals: benzene, ethylene oxide, formaldehyde, hexavalent chromium compounds and hydrogen sulfide.

    The state is in the process of setting health-based standards that will limit the amount of each chemical allowed in the air. Importantly, the standards will be designed to protect people exposed to the chemicals long term, such as those living near emission sources. Exposure to even low amounts of some chemicals, such as benzene, may lead to cancer.

    As a researcher studying chemical exposure and health, I measure and evaluate the impact of air pollution on people’s well-being.

    Colorado’s new regulations will draw on expert knowledge and community input to protect people’s health.

    Communities know what needs regulation

    In your own community, is there a highway that runs near your house or a factory with a bad odor? Maybe a gas station right around the corner? You likely already know many of the places that release air pollution near you.

    When state or local regulators work with community members to find out what air pollution sources communities are worried about, the partnership can lead to a system that better serves the public and reduces injustice.

    For example, partnerships between community advocates, scientists and regulators in heavily polluted and marginalized neighborhoods in New York and Boston have had big benefits. These partnerships resulted in both better scientific knowledge about how air pollution is connected to asthma and the placement of air monitors in neighborhoods impacted the most.

    In Colorado, the process to choose the five priority air toxics included consulting with multiple stakeholders. A technical working group provided input on which five chemicals should be prioritized from the larger list of 477 toxic air contaminants.

    The working group includes academics, members of nongovernmental organizations such as the Environmental Defense Fund – local government and regulated industries, such as the American Petroleum Institute.

    Community members often know which air toxics they want regulated.
    Hyoung Chang/Denver Post via GettyImages

    There were also opportunities for community participation during public meetings.

    At public hearings, community groups like GreenLatinos argued that formaldehyde, instead of acrolein, should be one of the prioritized air toxics because it can cause cancer.

    Additionally, formaldehyde is emitted in some Colorado communities that are predominantly people of color, according to advocates for those communities. These communities are already disproportionately impacted by high rates of respiratory disease and cancer.

    Other members of the community also weighed in.

    “One of my patients is a 16-year-old boy who tried to get a summer job working outside, but had to quit because air pollution made his asthma so bad that he could barely breathe,” wrote Logan Harper, a Denver-area family physician and advocate for Healthy Air and Water Colorado.

    How is air quality protected?

    At the national level, the Clean Air Act requires that six common air pollutants, such as ozone and carbon monoxide, are kept below specific levels. The act also regulates 188 hazardous air pollutants.

    Individual states are free to develop their own regulations, and several, including California and Minnesota, already have. States can set standards that are more health-protective than those in place nationally.

    Four of the five chemicals prioritized by Colorado are regulated federally. The fifth chemical, hydrogen sulfide, is not included on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s hazardous air pollutant list, but Colorado has decided to regulate it as an air toxic.

    State-level regulation is important because states can focus on air toxics specific to their state to make sure that the communities most exposed to air pollution are protected. One way to do this is to place air pollution monitors in the communities experiencing the worst air pollution.

    For example, Colorado is placing six new air quality monitors in locations around the state to measure concentrations of the five priority air toxics. It will also use an existing monitor in Grand Junction to measure air toxics. Two of the new monitors, located in Commerce City and La Salle, began operating in January 2024. The remainder will start monitoring the air by July 2025.

    When Colorado chose the sites, it prioritized communities that are overly impacted by social and environmental hazards. To do this, officials used indexes like the Colorado EnviroScreen, which combines information about pollution, health and economic factors to identify communities that are overly burdened by hazards.

    The Commerce City monitor is located in Adams City, a neighborhood that has some of the worst pollution in the state. The site has air toxics emissions that are worse than 95% of communities in Colorado.

    Air toxics and health

    The five air toxics that Colorado selected all have negative impacts on health. Four are known to cause cancer.

    Benzene, perhaps the most well known because of its ability to cause blood cancer, is one. But it also has a number of other health impacts, including dampening the ability of the immune system and impacting the reproductive system by decreasing sperm count. Benzene is in combustion-powered vehicle exhaust and is emitted during oil and gas production and refinement.

    Ethylene oxide can cause cancer and irritates the nervous and respiratory systems. Symptoms of long-term exposure can include headaches, sore throat, shortness of breath and others. Ethylene oxide is used to sterilize medical equipment, and as of 2024, it was used by four facilities in Colorado.

    Formaldehyde is also a cancer-causing agent, and exposure is associated with asthma in children. This air toxic is used in the manufacture of a number of products like household cleaners and building materials. It is also emitted by oil and gas sources, including during fracking.

    Hexavalent chromium compounds can cause several types of cancer, as well as skin and lung diseases such as asthma and rhinitis. A major source of hexavalent chromium is coal-fired power plants, of which Colorado currently has six in operation, though these plants are scheduled to close in the next five years. Other sources of hexavalent chromium include chemical and other manufacturing.

    Finally, long-term exposure to hydrogen sulfide can cause low blood pressure, headaches and a range of other symptoms, and has been associated with neurological impacts such as psychological disorders. Some sources of hydrogen sulfide include oil refineries and wastewater treatment plants.

    Read more of our stories about Colorado.

    Jenni Shearston has received funding from the United States National Institutes of Health.

    – ref. Colorado is tackling air pollution in vulnerable neighborhoods by regulating 5 air toxics – https://theconversation.com/colorado-is-tackling-air-pollution-in-vulnerable-neighborhoods-by-regulating-5-air-toxics-248520

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How early voting on campuses can boost election turnout – not only for students but for residents, too

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Stephen C. Phillips, Lecturer in Political Science, Clemson University

    NextGen, a youth and democracy group, encouraging University of Central Florida students to vote early on campus in the 2018 midterms, Orlando, Florida, Oct. 25, 2018. Willie J. Allen Jr./AP Images

    Republican-led legislatures in several U.S. states, from Indiana to Oklahoma, are considering imposing restrictions on early voting, from shortening the number of days to tightening ID requirements for voters.

    Florida, by contrast, offers several tools to increase voting access, including for young people – a historically low-turnout group. Floridians may preregister to vote at age 16 and request vote-by-mail ballots with no justification needed. And starting in 2018, Florida election officials began offering in-person early-voting sites on college and university campuses after a federal judge nullified a 2014 rule barring higher education facilities from serving as early-voting sites.

    I am a lecturer of political science who studies American political development and public law, and my research suggests that expanding on-campus early-voting sites can boost turnout in U.S. elections by making voting more convenient – not only for students but for residents of surrounding communities too.

    Campus voting is popular

    I have been tracking votes cast at on-campus early-voting sites in Florida since 2018. The data shows these voting sites are increasingly popular.

    My research shows that 59,205 votes were cast across 12 Florida campuses hosting early-voting sites in 2018. That number increased to 92,344 at 11 locations in 2020 and jumped again – by about 50,000 votes – during the 2024 election.

    During 14 days of early voting in October and November 2024, 142,085 Floridians cast ballots across 16 on-campus early-voting sites across the state. One-quarter of them – 35,245 voters – took advantage of three campus sites in Miami-Dade County, the state’s most populous county.

    A 2019 study by the Andrew Goodman Foundation, a nonprofit promoting youth participation in democracy, determined that overall voter turnout in Florida increased during the 2018 election, in comparison with previous midterm elections, in part “due to the added convenience” of on-campus voting.

    Greater access to in-person early voting also increases the likelihood of a person’s ballot counting, since mail-in ballots tend to be rejected at higher rates than in-person votes.

    Who votes on campus?

    On-campus early voting makes elections more accessible for all voters.

    My data from 2024 shows that 35% of voters at Florida’s 16 on-campus early-voting sites were registered Democrats and 32% were registered Republicans. The remaining 33% registered with minor parties or had no party affiliation.

    These results differ from voter registration data from 2024 in Florida, which shows 40% of registered voters as Republicans, 31% as Democrats and 29% as other. That is to be expected, because studies of on-campus early voters in Florida find that these voters are younger and more diverse than those at other polling places.

    Both students and local residents may vote at on-campus polling sites in Florida.

    A 2019 report from the Andrew Goodman Foundation found “Hispanic and Black voters disproportionately cast ballots” at campus locations alongside college-age voters. It also said that 56% of early voters at campus sites were under age 30.

    Differences in party turnout at tracked sites, then, may reflect the higher share of Gen Z voters registered as Democrats or with no party affiliation.

    Obstacles to voting access

    Before casting a ballot, voters face four decisions. First, whether to register to vote. Second, whether to vote in an election. Third, how to vote: early in-person, vote-by-mail or on Election Day. Fourth, whom or what to vote for.

    Turnout rates among young voters vary widely across states, but in states where on-campus voting locations are frequent – such as Arizona, Florida and North Carolina – youth turnout tends to be higher.

    In the 2024 election, people ages 18 to 29 represented 14% of overall Florida voters – roughly on par with their proportion of the state’s population. It is difficult to make a direct comparison between the voting age population and voter turnout rates because of voter eligibility rules.

    But, for reference, 18-to-29-year-olds made up 14% of voters in Texas in 2024, too – yet are estimated to be nearly 17% of the population.

    Several states have rules seemingly designed to hinder young people from voting. After the 2020 election, Ohio passed a law making it harder for out-of-state students to vote by restricting the documents voters may use to prove their residency. Data from the Campus Vote Project shows several states, including Texas, Iowa and Missouri, do not accept student IDs as valid identification to vote. Oklahoma is currently considering similar legislation.

    While turnout rates reflect many factors, including the popularity of the candidates, low voter turnout is often associated with increased difficulty in casting a ballot.

    Florida shows that college campuses play an important role in increasing access to voting, not just for students but for residents in the surrounding communities, too. Nearly 3% of the 5.4 million people who voted early in person statewide in 2024 cast their ballot at a campus polling site, up from 2.2% in 2018.

    Election officials, university leaders and lawmakers know that having on-campus early-voting sites is a successful method for engaging voters. As one first-time voter at York Technical College in South Carolina told South Carolina Public Radio in 2024, the convenient location “definitely encourages me to vote.”

    Across the country, from Iowa to Texas, many schools and election officials host early on-campus voting.

    In other places, however, state and local laws, or decisions by local officials, prevent many campuses from hosting polling sites.

    For example, Ohio limits the number of early-voting sites to one per county. That meant that, in 2024, Ohio State University had no campus early-voting sites, and for its students the closest place to vote in person was about 6 miles (10 kilometers) away.

    In South Carolina, though some campuses do host polling sites, the university where I teach, Clemson, does not. In 2024, students had to travel four miles to reach the nearest in-person early-voting location in Pickens County.

    A recent study found that long distances and travel times to polling locations constitute “a barrier to voting.” And students, as a population, often have particularly limited access to transportation.

    Further studies will show more precisely how on-campus early voting expands the voter universe. But my vote tracking and other new research provides some clues, suggesting that early in-person voting on campus increases early voting and diversifies the electorate.

    Expanding on-campus early voting, then, is not just about convenience. It is about empowering the next generation of voters and strengthening democracy.

    Stephen C. Phillips does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How early voting on campuses can boost election turnout – not only for students but for residents, too – https://theconversation.com/how-early-voting-on-campuses-can-boost-election-turnout-not-only-for-students-but-for-residents-too-247161

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s claims of vast presidential powers run up against Article 2 of the Constitution and exceed previous presidents’ power grabs

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Claire B. Wofford, Associate Professor of Political Science, College of Charleston

    How much power does the president really have? fotojog-iStock/Getty Images Plus

    Those who wrote and wrangled over America’s Constitution might be troubled by the second presidency of Donald J. Trump.

    While almost all modern presidents flex their muscles in the initial stages of their administration, the first weeks of the second Trump presidency have seen a rapid-fire, often dizzying array of executive actions that have sparked heated, even virulent, disputes among politicians, the media and citizens about how much power the president of the United States should have.

    Historians differ about the framers’ precise intent regarding the executive branch. But the general consensus is twofold: First, domestic lawmaking power, including the critical “power of the purse,” would rest with Congress; second, the president would not be the equivalent of a king.

    Fresh off the coercion of King George III, the framers were in no mood to recreate the British system. They debated extensively about whether the executive branch should be led by more than one person. A single chief executive was eventually favored in part because other institutional checks, including the selection of the president by the American people and Congress’ ability to impeach, seemed sufficient. And, of course, Congress would retain lawmaking powers.

    Almost immediately, however, Congress began delegating some of that power to the presidency. As the nation grew and Congress found itself unable to manage the ensuing demands, it put more and more policymaking powers into the executive branch.

    Congress frequently passed vaguely worded statutes and left important details largely to the president about how to manage, for instance, immigration or the environment. President-as-policymaker and the development of an immense federal bureaucracy that is now in the crosshairs of Trump and Elon Musk was one unintended result.

    Whether the current American president has become a king, particularly after the sweeping grant of immunity in 2024 by the Supreme Court and the seeming acquiescence by Congress to Trump’s latest directives, remains up for debate.

    In 2019, Trump said, “And then I have an Article 2, where I have the right to do whatever I want as President.”

    I’m a constitutional law scholar, and I can comfortably respond: With all due respect, Mr. President, no. Article 2 does not grant the president unlimited power.

    Here’s what the Constitution does say – and doesn’t say – about the power of the president.

    An 1881 depiction of the 1787 Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia.
    Alfred Kappes and Frederick Juengling, New York Public Library Digital Collections

    Exploiting imprecise language

    The Constitution divides power among the three branches of the federal government – executive, legislative and judicial.

    Article 1 specifies in great detail the structure and powers of Congress. In comparison, Article 2 is relatively short, outlining the powers of the executive branch, which now encompasses the president, his advisers and various departments and agencies.

    There is no extensive laundry list of enumerated powers for the executive branch. Instead, there is a smattering. The president is given the power to “grant reprieves and pardons,” to “receive ambassadors,” and, with the consent of the Senate, “make treaties” and “appoint” various federal officials. The president is also the “Commander in Chief.”

    Aside from the ability to veto legislation and “recommend” policies to Congress, the president was intended to serve primarily as an administrator of congressional statutes, not a policymaker.

    It is other, much less precise language in Article 2 that undergirds much of what Trump claims he can do – and what opponents say he cannot.

    Specifically, Section 1 states, “The Executive power shall be vested in a President,” and Section 3 requires the President to “take care that the laws be faithfully executed.”

    On their face, these “vesting” and “take care” clauses seem relatively innocuous, reflecting the framers’ view that the President would implement rather than create the nation’s public policy. Congress would have that prerogative, with the president generally confined to ensuring those laws were carried out appropriately.

    Trump and his allies, however, have seized on these words as authorizing unlimited control over each of the 4 million employees of the executive branch and, through program changes and spending freezes, allowing him to exert significant policymaking power for the nation.

    The administration has now surpassed what even the strongest proponents of presidential power may have once argued. Trump adviser Stephen Miller has said, “All executive power is vested in the one man elected by the whole nation. No unelected bureaucrat has any ‘independent’ authority.”

    Yet the overriding goal of the framers at the Constitutional Convention was to avoid creating an American version of the British monarchy, with a single, unaccountable ruler in charge of national policymaking, free to implement his vision at will.

    In the view of Trump’s critics, this is precisely what has occurred.

    President Donald Trump signs an executive order on Feb. 14, 2025, at the White House.
    Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

    Going around Congress

    Trump is not the first president to use Article 2’s ambiguity to push the boundaries of executive authority.

    Particularly since the end of World War II and the Franklin D. Roosevelt administration, presidents have seized upon the same phrases in the Constitution to put their particular political agendas into action.

    Barack Obama, for instance, famously touted his “phone and pen” as a way to make policy when Congress refused.

    The vehicle for most executive branch policymaking, including by Trump, has been the executive order. Executive orders are mentioned nowhere in the Constitution, but presidents have, since the very earliest days of the republic, issued these directives under their “executive” and “take care” power. Since the founding, there have been tens of thousands of executive orders, used by Democratic and Republican presidents alike.

    Often, executive orders are relatively minor. They form commissions, set holiday schedules or brand an agency with a new seal. Dozens are signed unnoticed during every administration.

    In other instances, they have sweeping and substantive effect.

    Among those, Abraham Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation freed Southern slaves, Franklin Roosevelt placed Japanese Americans in internment camps, Harry S. Truman integrated the military, and Joe Biden forgave student loans. Trump has attempted to redefine birthright citizenship – a move which, for now, has been stopped by federal courts.

    Because they have the force of law and remain in place until revoked by a subsequent president, executive orders have often faced legal challenges. Currently, there are more than 80 lawsuits challenging Trump’s executive orders for violating both federal law and the Constitution. Some orders, but not all, have been halted by lower courts.

    But if many presidents have believed that Article 2 of the Constitution gives them the power to make policy via executive order, the nation’s highest court hasn’t always agreed.

    Out of bounds?

    Requests to the high court to rule on Trump’s executive orders are a virtual certainty.

    Historically, the Supreme Court has struck down some executive orders as outside the scope of Article 2. As the court wrote in 1952, “In the framework of our Constitution, the President’s power to see that the laws are faithfully executed refutes the idea that he is to be a lawmaker.”

    Whether Trump’s various directives are within his Article 2 authority or violate both the letter and spirit of the Constitution awaits determination, most likely by the U.S. Supreme Court. Much of the genius of that document is its often ambiguous language, letting the government adapt to a changing nation.

    Yet that very ambiguity has allowed both sides of today’s political divide to claim that their version of executive power is faithful to the framers’ vision. As with the Civil War and the Civil Rights Movements, such a dispute could very well drive the U.S. to the breaking point.

    Congress or the American people may eventually decide that Trump has gone too far. The next presidential election is years away, but Congress still retains the power of impeachment. More realistically, they could rein him in via legislation, as they did with President Richard Nixon.

    For now, it is up to the judicial system to evaluate what the administration has done. Courts will need to use their constitutionally mandated authority to evaluate whether Trump has exceeded his.

    In 2022, I donated $20 to ActBlue.

    – ref. Trump’s claims of vast presidential powers run up against Article 2 of the Constitution and exceed previous presidents’ power grabs – https://theconversation.com/trumps-claims-of-vast-presidential-powers-run-up-against-article-2-of-the-constitution-and-exceed-previous-presidents-power-grabs-249662

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting prioritizes ‘real’ independence from the US − but what does that mean and is it achievable?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Garret Martin, Senior Professorial Lecturer, Co-Director Transatlantic Policy Center, American University School of International Service

    Germany’s presumptive new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, faces challenges both at home and overseas following his conservative alliance’s election victory on Feb. 23, 2025.

    A strong showing from the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) – which Merz, in line with other mainstream German parties, refuses to countenance as a coalition party as part of an unofficial “firewall” against extremism – will make forming a functioning government tricky.

    But in the moments after the election results, it was the future of the European Union and its relationship with America that was his immediate focus: “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.”

    To understand why that is such a concern for Germany now and what “real independence” from Washington means, The Conversation U.S. turned to Garret Martin, an expert on U.S.-Europe relations at American University, for answers.

    What prompted Merz’s ‘real independence’ line?

    Presumably it was a response to a series of recent announcements and actions by the Trump administration that have shocked the German political establishment. This includes the sudden revelation that the U.S. would negotiate directly with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, but seemingly without the Europeans or Ukrainians involved. That development went down like a lead balloon in Berlin, especially considering Germany’s significant financial support of Kyiv since 2022.

    Moreover, the German establishment has also frowned at a series of recent declarations by members of the Trump administration. Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, in which he harshly criticized Europe for allegedly undermining freedom of expression, provoked clear pushback from German leaders. Trump, for his part, hardly endeared himself to his German allies when he denounced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “dictator.”

    And, of course, Elon Musk’s interference in the German elections – as well as his open support for the far-right Alternative for Germany – provoked a fierce response from Merz. The then-candidate promised that Musk would need to be prepared for legal consequences for his meddling.

    Elon Musk addresses, via videolink, the election campaign launch rally of the far-right Alternative for Germany on Jan. 25, 2025.
    Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    How would this ‘real independence’ be achieved?

    Defining what “real independence” means and being able to implement such a drastic change in transatlantic relations will be a tall order. If by “real independence” Merz means that Germany would no longer rely on the U.S. for its security, then that would require several major steps.

    Merz would first need to convince his likely coalition partners, the Social Democrats, that this is the right goal. After all, German governments are bound by very detailed coalition agreements. Second, Merz would need to significantly increase German defense spending. As it stands, Germany’s annual defense budget is slightly over US$90 billion, or 2% of its GDP. But a recent study by the economic think tank Bruegel suggests Berlin would need to increase its budget by $145 billion annually to defend Europe without the assistance of the U.S.

    But to achieve this, Merz will likely need to increase defense spending by such a level that it will contravene the country’s “debt brake.” This 2009 constitutional rule essentially caps the annual deficit that the government can take on. But overturning this mechanism would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers of the German Parliament. Merz’s Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union party won 28.6% of the vote – and even with the support of the country’s main center-left party, the Social Democrats, Merz will fall short of the parliamentary votes needed.

    Finally, “real independence” would also require convincing other European Union partners to join him down that path. Assuming that the Trump administration continues its current trajectory and further undermines NATO, the EU would have to step in to become a more prominent security actor for the continent. It might also require, as Merz hinted, that the United Kingdom and France be ready to share their nuclear weapons, since the U.S. may not be trusted anymore to defend NATO countries.

    All of these steps would cover “real independence” only in the security sphere and not touch other crucial policy areas, such as trade and energy. And that would be an equally tall order given the level of economic ties binding Germany to the U.S., as well as the looming threat of tariffs.

    What does this mean for German-US relations?

    Merz’s “real independence” statement would have been noteworthy coming from any German chancellor. But it is even more striking when one considers the fact that Merz is a committed transatlanticist who deeply admires the U.S. and counts Ronald Reagan as one of his role models.

    At 69, Merz came of age during the final years of the Cold War, when the U.S. played a key role in enabling German reunification. He worked for years for Atlantik-Brücke, a lobbying group pushing for closer transatlantic ties. And he has, by his own account, traveled more than 100 times to the U.S.

    Independence will not likely mean a complete divorce between the U.S. and Germany – the ties binding the two countries, whether economic, cultural or political, run too deep. However, we can expect that Berlin will not hesitate to take a more combative approach toward Washington when necessary, so to protect German and European interests. As Merz pointed out, it is clear that the Trump administration does “not care much about the fate of Europe.”

    What does this signal for Merz’s view of Germany’s position in the EU?

    Merz’s win will certainly lead to important shifts in Germany’s position in the EU, and could be a major boost for a union in need of leadership. His predecessor, Olaf Scholz, was hampered by a weak economy, divisions within his coalition and indecisive leadership in Europe. Moreover, poor relations with French President Emmanuel Macron also stalled the Franco-German partnership, normally a key engine of leadership in the EU.

    Merz certainly plans to take a very distinct approach toward the EU than his predecessor. His calls for “real independence” will certainly be very welcome in France, which has long called for Europe to be more responsible for its own security. As such, it opens up the possibility of far closer ties between Paris and Berlin than we saw in recent years. Moreover, Merz, with his more hawkish position toward Russia, could be counted on to provide greater support for Ukraine.

    Garret Martin receives funding from the European Union for the Transatlantic Policy Center, which he co-directs.

    – ref. Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting prioritizes ‘real’ independence from the US − but what does that mean and is it achievable? – https://theconversation.com/germanys-chancellor-in-waiting-prioritizes-real-independence-from-the-us-but-what-does-that-mean-and-is-it-achievable-250708

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Selenium is an essential nutrient named after the Greek goddess of the Moon − crucial to health, it may help prevent and treat cancer

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Aliasger K. Salem, Professor of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Iowa

    Selenium is found in trace amounts in living organisms, soil and plants. Nazarii Neshcherenskyi/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    Selenium is a nutrient that plays a crucial role in human health, contributing to the thyroid and immune function, DNA repair, and cardiovascular and cognitive health.

    It acts as an antioxidant – substances that protect cells from unstable molecules that can damage DNA, proteins and cell membranes. It can even protect against cancer.

    Selenium is a vital trace element found in living organisms, soil and plants, and your body needs only a small amount of it to function. The recommended dietary allowance for selenium in adults is 55 micrograms per day, with an upper limit of 400 micrograms. In comparison, adults need between 900 to 10,000 micrograms daily of copper, another trace element, and between 8,000 to 40,000 micrograms of the trace element zinc.

    An excess or deficiency of selenium can have significant health consequences. In my work as a pharmaceutical science researcher, my colleagues and I study the potential use of selenium to boost the effectiveness of chemotherapy for cancer treatment.

    A dose of selenium

    Selenium was first discovered in 1817 by chemist Jöns Jacob Berzelius while analyzing an impurity in a batch of sulfuric acid produced in a factory in Sweden. Berzelius initially thought the material was the element tellurium, but he eventually realized that it was actually an unknown substance at the time. He named the mineral after Selene, the Greek goddess of the Moon, because of its similarity to tellurium, which had been named after the Roman goddess of the Earth.

    Selenium exists in both organic and inorganic forms. Organic compounds contain carbon atoms and are typically derived from living organisms, while inorganic compounds do not have carbon atoms and generally originate from nonliving sources. Your cells chemically convert between these forms to carry out various physiological functions.

    Selenium deficiency is a significant health issue, particularly in regions with selenium-poor soils, such as parts of China, Africa and Europe. Low selenium levels are associated with Keshan disease, a fatal heart condition, and Kashin-Beck disease, which affects joints and bones. Deficiency also weakens immune function, increasing susceptibility to infections.

    Brazil nuts contain particularly high levels of selenium.
    R.Tsubin/Moment via Getty Images

    Consuming too much selenium is also an issue. Oversupplementation or excess environmental exposure can lead to selenosis, a condition with symptoms such as brittle hair and nails, digestive issues, skin rashes and neurological symptoms such as irritability and fatigue. In severe cases, selenium toxicity can result in organ failure and death.

    Selenium has a narrow therapeutic window, which is the dosage range that provides safe and effective treatment with minimal harmful side effects. For example, selenium can either increase or decrease your body’s immune function, depending on the dose. Adequate levels of selenium strengthen your immune cells’ ability to fight infections and tumors, while excessive selenium intake can suppress immune responses by damaging immune tissues.

    Selenium and cancer prevention

    Selenium may have the potential to treat and prevent cancer.

    Scientists have long studied selenium’s role in cancer prevention. Initially suspected to be a carcinogen, later studies found it had protective effects against liver damage. In the 1960s. researchers proposed that selenium could be used to prevent cancer, a concept that gained further traction in the 1990s.

    However, large-scale clinical trials have produced mixed results. The Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial was a study of over 35,500 men that ran from 2001 to 2004. They found that taking selenium daily did not reduce prostate cancer risk and may even increase the risk of prostate cancer in men with already high selenium levels.

    Findings from a study conducted from 1983 to 1996, the Nutritional Prevention of Cancer Trial, suggested selenium may protect against prostate and other cancers. But researchers also observed a heightened incidence of nonmelanoma skin cancer among participants.

    These conflicting results may be due to the different forms of selenium each study tested, as well as differences in baseline selenium levels among participants. Other studies have found that selenium-contaminated water in a municipality of Italy has been linked to an increased risk of melanoma.

    The antioxidant effects of selenium vary depending on its dose.
    Razaghi et al./EJC, CC BY-SA

    Selenium and cancer treatment

    Selenium may also have the potential to stop cancer from spreading.

    My research focuses on the potential of using selenium to supplement chemotherapy for cancer treatment. Selenium compounds such as methylseleninic acid, or MSA, and seleno-L-methionine, or SLM, show promise in targeting proteins that drive tumor progression and treatment resistance. Studies from my team and I have found that MSA can modulate key biochemical pathways related to kidney cancer by reducing levels of proteins that influence tumor growth and immune evasion. We also observed that SLM may slow kidney tumor growth in mice without toxic side effects.

    More significantly, in a Phase 1 clinical trial, we found that combining SLM with the chemotherapy drug axitinib was effective in treating metastatic kidney cancer in patients, with minimal side effects. Of the 27 patients we treated, over half saw their tumors shrink in size, with a median overall survival of nearly 20 months. These findings suggest that selenium may have a synergistic effect on chemotherapy by making it more effective.

    Further investigation into how selenium may help overcome treatment resistance and what doses are optimal will clarify its potential as a viable addition to cancer treatment.

    Striking the right balance

    Whether as an immune booster or potential treatment for disease, the significance of selenium in human health is undeniable.

    Eating selenium-rich foods – such as Brazil nuts, seafood, whole grains and eggs – can help sustain optimal nutrient levels. In regions with selenium-deficient soils, supplementation with medical supervision may be necessary.

    The fine line between benefit and harm underscores the importance of balanced intake and personalized approaches to selenium supplementation. As research continues, I believe selenium’s multifaceted role in health will become more clear.

    Aliasger K. Salem receives funding from the National Institutes of Health. He serves on the Executive Board of the American Association for Pharmaceutical Scientists.

    – ref. Selenium is an essential nutrient named after the Greek goddess of the Moon − crucial to health, it may help prevent and treat cancer – https://theconversation.com/selenium-is-an-essential-nutrient-named-after-the-greek-goddess-of-the-moon-crucial-to-health-it-may-help-prevent-and-treat-cancer-248548

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Generative AI is most useful for the things we care about the least

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By John P. Nelson, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Ethics and Societal Implications of Artificial Intelligence, Georgia Institute of Technology

    The creative process involves choices that lead artists to places they couldn’t have imagined. Eoneren/E+ via Getty Images

    Generative AI tools such as ChatGPT and Midjourney can produce text, images and videos far more quickly than any one person can accomplish by hand.

    But as someone who studies the societal impacts of AI, I’ve noticed an interesting trade-off: The technology can certainly save time, but it does so precisely to the extent that the user is willing to surrender control over the final product.

    For this reason, generative AI is probably most useful for things we care about the least.

    Ceding creative control

    Let’s use the example of AI image generators. You probably have a rough idea of how they work. Just type what you want – “a panda surfing,” “a piece of toast that is also a car” – and the generative tool draws it.

    But this glosses over the countless possible iterations of the desired image.

    Will the image appear as a watercolor painting or a pencil sketch? How lifelike will the panda be? How big is the wave? Is the toast-car parked or moving? Is there anyone inside of it?

    When the images are generated, these questions have been answered – but not by the user. Rather, the generative AI tool has “decided.”

    Of course, the user can be more specific: Imitate the style of Monet. Make the wave twice the height of the panda. Maybe the panda should look worried, since it isn’t used to surfing.

    You can also pop open an image editor and modify the output yourself, down to the individual pixel. But, of course, drafting detailed instructions and revising the image take time, effort and skill. Generative AI promises to lighten the load. But as every manager knows, exercising control is work.

    The devil is in the details

    In all art and expression, power lies in the details.

    In great paintings, not every brushstroke is planned – but each is carefully considered and accepted. And its overall effect on the viewer depends on all those considered brushstrokes together.

    Filmmakers shoot take after take of the same scene, each subtly or radically different. Only a small fraction of that footage makes it into the final cut – the fraction that the editors feel does the job best. Great artists use their judgment to ensure every detail helps to achieve the effect they want.

    Of course, there’s nothing new about putting someone else in charge of the details. People are used to delegating authority – even about matters of expression – to marketers, speechwriters, social media managers and the like.

    Generative AI makes a new sort of contractor available. It’s always on call, and in certain ways it is very technically competent.

    But compared with skilled humans, it has a limited ability to understand what you want. Moreover, it lacks intention, contemplation and the comprehensive mastery of detail that yield great expressive achievements – or even the comprehensive idiosyncrasy that spawns very unique ones.

    Ask ChatGPT for a film script, plus casting and shooting instructions. It will give you neither Francis Ford Coppola’s masterpiece “The Godfather” nor Tommy Wiseau’s bizarre “The Room.”

    You could, perhaps, approach a masterpiece, or a true oddity. But to do so, you’d have to exercise more and more time, more and more effort, and more and more control.

    An era of ‘cheap speech’

    What generative AI makes possible, above all, is low-effort, low-control expression.

    In the time I took to write and revise this article, I could have used ChatGPT to generate 200 grammatically correct, well-structured articles, and then I could have posted them online without even reading them. I wouldn’t have had to carefully parse each word and decide whether it really helped me make my point. I wouldn’t have even had to decide whether I agreed with any of the AI-generated write-ups.

    This is not a merely hypothetical example. Low-quality, AI-generated e-books of ambiguous provenance are already making their way into online vendors’ catalogs – and into the libraries those vendors serve.

    Similarly, using image generators, I could now flood the internet with superficially appealing images, dedicating only a fraction of a second to decide whether any of them express what I want them to express or achieve what I want them to achieve.

    But in doing so, I would not just be skipping over drudgery. Writing, drawing and painting are not just labor but processes of considering, reviewing and deciding exactly what I want to put out into the world. By skipping over those processes, I surrender that decision-making process to the AI tool.

    Some scholars argue that the internet has produced an era of “cheap speech.” People no longer have to invest a lot of resources – nor even face the judgment of their neighbors – to broadcast whatever they want to the world.

    With generative AI, expression is even cheaper. You don’t even have to make things yourself to put them out into the world. For the first time in human history, the ability to produce writing, art and expression has been decoupled from the necessity of actually paying attention to what you’re making or saying.

    Generative AI allows you to blow through the thousands of little decisions that go into a work of art.
    C.J. Burton/The Image Bank via Getty Images

    When intention and effort matter

    I suspect that great art, journalism and scholarship will still demand great attention and effort. Some of that effort may even include custom-developing AI tools tailored to an individual artist’s concerns.

    But unless people become much better at curation, great work will be increasingly difficult to locate amid the flood of low-effort content, which is also known as “AI slop.”

    It’s appropriate that generative AI becomes more useful the sloppier its users are willing to be – that is, the less they care about the details.

    I could end with some dire prognosis – that working artists and writers will be replaced with mediocre automation, that online discourse will get even stupider, that people will isolate themselves in personalized cocoons of AI-generated media.

    All these things are possible. But it’s probably more useful to offer a suggestion to you, the reader.

    When you need an image or a piece of writing, take a moment to decide: How important are the details? Would the process of making this yourself, or working with a collaborator or contractor, be useful? Would it yield a better output, or give me the chance to learn, or begin or strengthen a relationship, or help you reflect on something important to you?

    In short, is it worth putting in real care and effort? The answer will not always be yes. But it often will.

    Art, writing, films – these are not just products, but acts. They are things humans make, through a process of thousands of little decisions that encompass what we stand for and what we want to say.

    So when it comes to art, expression and argument, if you want it done right, it’s probably still best to do it yourself.

    John P. Nelson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Generative AI is most useful for the things we care about the least – https://theconversation.com/generative-ai-is-most-useful-for-the-things-we-care-about-the-least-249329

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: If US attempts World Bank retreat, the China-led AIIB could be poised to step in – and provide a model of global cooperation

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Tamar Gutner, Associate Professor, American University

    Donald Trump is no fan of international organizations. Just hours after taking office on Jan 20, 2025, the U.S. president announced his intention to withdraw from the World Health Organization and the Paris agreement on climate change.

    Could the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank be next?

    Certainly, supporters of the twin institutions – that have formed the backbone of global economic order for 80 years – are concerned. A Trump-ordered review of Washington’s support of all international organizations has led to fears of the U.S. reducing funding or pulling it altogether.

    But any shrinking of U.S. leadership in international financial institutions would, I believe, run counter to the administration’s ostensible geopolitical goals, creating a vacuum for China to step into and take on a bigger global role. In particular, weakening the World Bank and other multilateral development banks, or MDBs, that have a large U.S. presence could present an opportunity for a little-known, relatively new Chinese-led international organization: the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank – which, since its inception, has supported the very multilateralism the U.S. is attacking.

    AIIB’s paradoxical role

    The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was created by China nine years ago as a way to invest in infrastructure and other related sectors in Asia, while promoting “regional cooperation and partnership in addressing development challenges by working in close collaboration with other multilateral and bilateral development institutions.”

    Since then, it has served as an example of an international body willing to deeply cooperate with other major multilateral organizations and follow international rules and norms of development banking.

    This may run counter to the image of Beijing’s global efforts portrayed by China hawks, of which there are many in the Trump administration, who often present a vision of a China intent on undermining the Western-led liberal international order.

    But as a number of scholars and other China experts have suggested, Beijing’s strategies in global economic governance are often nuanced, with actions that both support and undermine the liberal global order.

    As I explore in my new book, it is clear that today the AIIB is a paradox: an institution connected to the rules and norms of the liberal international order, but one created by an illiberal government.

    Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei speaks during the signing ceremony of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank on Oct. 24, 2014, in Beijing.
    Takaki Yajima-Pool/Getty Images

    The AIIB is deeply tied to the rules-based order as displayed through its many cooperative connections with other major multilateral development banks, such as the World Bank and the Japan-led Asian Development Bank.

    As such, the AIIB may present a Chinese counterpoint in a landscape where U.S. leadership is receding.

    The cooperative design of the AIIB

    For decades, multilateral development banks have served the important task of lending billions of dollars a year to support economic and social development.

    They can be vital sources of funding for poverty reduction, inclusive economic growth and sustainable development, with a newer emphasis on climate change. These international lenders have also been remarkably durable in today’s climate of fragmentation and crisis, with member nations actively considering ways of further strengthening them.

    At the same time, MDBs perennially face criticism from civil society organizations who highlight areas of weak performance and are concerned about potential downsides of the major MDBs’ greater emphasis on working more closely with the private sector. MDB expert Chris Humphrey has also noted that major “MDBs were built around a set of geopolitical and economic power relationships that are coming apart before our eyes.”

    When Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 proposed creating the AIIB to lend for infrastructure development in Asia, there was a lot of suspicion among major nations about China’s intentions.

    The Obama administration responded to the move by urging other countries not to join. Its concern was that China would use lending to gain further influence in the region, but without adhering to strong environmental and social standards.

    Nonetheless, all the other major nonborrowing nations, with the exception of Japan, joined the new bank. Today, the AIIB is the second-largest multilateral development bank in terms of member countries, behind only the World Bank. It currently has 110 member nations, which translates to over 80% of the global population. With US$100 billion in capital, it is one of the medium-sized multilateral lenders.

    From the get-go, the AIIB was designed to be cooperative. Jin Liqun, who became the bank’s first president, is a longtime multilateralist with a long career at China’s finance ministry and past positions on the boards of the World Bank and the Global Environmental Facility, as well as a vice presidency of the Asian Development Bank.

    The international group of experts that helped design the AIIB also included former executive directors and staff from the IMF and other development banks, as well as two Americans with long careers at the World Bank who played leading roles in designing the bank’s articles of agreement and its environmental and social framework.

    How the AIIB took its cue from others

    The bank fits into the landscape of other multilateral development banks in a variety of ways. The AIIB’s charter is directly modeled on the Asian Development Bank’s foundation, and built into the AIIB’s charter is the bank’s mission of promoting “regional cooperation and partnership in addressing development challenges.”

    The AIIB shares similar norms and policies with other major multilateral development banks, including its environmental and social standards.

    Alongside borrowing foundational principles, the AIIB also works in close conjunction with its peers. The World Bank initially ran the AIIB’s treasury operations. The AIIB has also co-financed a high percentage of its projects with other multilateral development banks, particularly in its first years.

    In a recent sign of cooperation, in 2023, a deal between the AIIB and World Bank’s International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) saw the AIIB issue up to $1 billion in guarantees against IBRD sovereign-backed loans. This increased the IBRD’s ability to lend more money, while diversifying the AIIB’s loan portfolio.

    As of Feb. 6, 2025, the AIIB has 306 approved projects totaling $59 billion. Energy and transportation are its two largest sectors of lending. Recently approved projects include loans to support wind power plants in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and a solar plant in India. India, which has a bumpy relationship with China, is one of the bank’s largest borrowers, along with Turkey and Indonesia.

    Cooperating and competing with China

    From its birth until recently, the multilateral AIIB has repeatedly distinguished itself from China’s bilateral initiatives. Chief among those is China’s Belt and Road Initiative, an umbrella term for infrastructure lending by Chinese institutions that has been criticized for lacking transparency and accountability.

    Indeed, some Belt and Road Initiative-linked projects have faced concerns about corruption, costs and the opacity of the loan agreements.

    In the past several years, the AIIB has made more mention of synergy with Belt and Road lenders, and the bank now hosts the secretariat of a facility, the Multilateral Cooperation Center for Development Finance, that offers grants and support to developing countries seeking to finance infrastructure in countries where Belt and Road lending takes place. This may blur the line between the AIIB and lending under the Belt and Road umbrella, but it does not appear to weaken the bank’s standards.

    Concerns about the level of Chinese government influence at the AIIB are not new. Canada froze its ties with the bank in June 2023, pending a review of allegations by a Canadian staff member, who dramatically quit after accusing the bank of being dominated by members of China’s Communist Party.

    No other member nations expressed such concern, and Canada has not yet published any review. A group of AIIB executive directors oversaw an internal review that found no evidence to support the allegations.

    As the new U.S. administration formulates its policies toward China, it would do well to take into account the variation in China’s strategies in global economic governance, as a recognition of areas of cooperation, competition and conflict requires more nuanced responses. In many areas, the U.S. will both cooperate and compete with China.

    Paradoxically, any moves by the Trump administration to pull back from multilateral organizations may leave the AIIB, whether or not it is an anomaly, in a position to offer a better model of cooperation than leading multilateral development banks with a powerful U.S. role.

    Tamar Gutner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. If US attempts World Bank retreat, the China-led AIIB could be poised to step in – and provide a model of global cooperation – https://theconversation.com/if-us-attempts-world-bank-retreat-the-china-led-aiib-could-be-poised-to-step-in-and-provide-a-model-of-global-cooperation-244595

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A hazy legal landscape means people can get high on hemp products, even where pot is prohibited

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Katharine Neill Harris, Fellow in Drug Policy, Rice University

    Delta-8 supplements on a shelf at a Texas store. Sergio Flores/Washington Post via Getty Images

    In Texas, where I live, marijuana has long been illegal. Yet on a busy street in my Houston neighborhood, at least five stores within a half-mile of each other sell cannabis products that promise a strong high.

    Texas isn’t alone. Due to a mix of recent legal changes and an uncertain policy landscape, residents in roughly half of American states have easy access to impairing hemp products that bear a strong resemblance to marijuana and are far less regulated.

    As hemp sales soar – reaching nearly US$3 billion in 2023 – a number of states are tightening their restrictions, while experts are analyzing the public health implications. That’s why I analyzed hemp policies in all 50 states with some of my colleagues at Rice University’s Baker Institute, where I’m a drug policy fellow.

    Marijuana and hemp: Same plant, different policies

    Marijuana and hemp are both varieties of cannabis sativa, a plant with many uses that produces thousands of compounds. Among them is the popular intoxicant delta-9 tetrahydrocannabinol, or delta-9 THC.

    Hemp is widely valued as an industrial crop, and for most of American history, farmers freely cultivated it. But by the mid-20th century, lawmakers had grown increasingly opposed to marijuana and were concerned by hemp’s similarity to its impairment-causing cousin.

    In an effort to permit hemp cultivation while prohibiting production of a psychoactive plant, the Agricultural Marketing Act of 1946 defined hemp as all parts of the cannabis plant with less than 0.3 percent concentration of delta-9 THC by dry weight. Cannabis that exceeded this threshold was considered marijuana.

    The 1970 Controlled Substances Act ushered in the modern era of prohibition of marijuana and other drugs. Hemp remained technically legal, but because of its similarity to marijuana, it was listed as a Schedule I drug, alongside heroin and other substances deemed to have a high potential for abuse and no medical value.

    Because of hemp’s Schedule I status, the Drug Enforcement Administration tightly regulated its production. But hemp farmers have long argued that these regulations were excessive – and in 2018, Congress agreed. That year, lawmakers passed a farm bill that removed hemp from the Controlled Substances Act and legalized the manufacture and sale of hemp and its derivatives.

    The ABC News affiliate in San Diego reports on the 2018 farm bill from a local perspective.

    Crucially, the 2018 bill still defines hemp as all parts of the plant and its derivatives that have less than 0.3 percent delta-9 THC. But it left a loophole: While delta-9 is the most well-known form of THC, it’s not the only one. Other forms of THC, known as THC isomers, have similar effects. These isomers, like delta-8 and delta-10 THC, can be derived from the hemp plant, and like delta-9 THC, they can cause impairment. The 2018 Farm Bill legalized all of them.

    In 2023, sales of hemp-derived cannabinoids reached US$2.8 billion. Market growth has been accompanied by a rise in adverse health events. Chemists have expressed alarm at how some hemp products are made, and analyses of commercially available products have found them to contain heavy metals, residual solvents and pesticides.

    Given the lax regulatory environment, many public officials now question the lack of guardrails on this burgeoning hemp industry. As a result, officials and governments across the country are now enacting or considering policy changes.

    Some states are imposing age and advertising restrictions

    In 2023, 11.4% of 12th graders said they had used hemp-derived delta-8 THC in the past year. Easy access to any substance can encourage use, and THC can have negative impacts on the adolescent brain.

    While federal law prohibits the sale of tobacco and alcohol to individuals under 21, there is no similar national requirement for hemp. But at least 27 states that permit the sale of hemp-derived products now have minimum age requirements, and several others have pending legislation.

    Lessons from the tobacco market also demonstrate that advertising restrictions can reduce the use of legal but potentially harmful products. Most efforts to curtail hemp advertising focus on youth. Sixteen states restrict the use of packaging and marketing materials that may appeal to minors. Meanwhile, federal regulations also limit youth-targeted marketing.

    There are fewer restrictions on advertising to adults. The Food and Drug Administration does prohibit using unverified health claims to sell hemp products, but this standard gives the industry plenty of leeway. Hemp ads often tout their purported physical benefits, like reducing pain or improving sleep, or portray them as mood-boosters that can make one feel euphoric and aroused, with few downsides.

    Other states are establishing potency limits

    The use of products high in THC has been linked to greater risk of cannabis dependence and adverse mental health outcomes. Concerns about product potency have led all states with recreational marijuana markets to limit the amount of delta-9 THC in edible products. This threshold is typically around 10 milligrams, a dose that’s strong enough to affect most people.

    Hemp is a different story. To satisfy federal requirements, hemp just has to have less than 0.3% delta-9 THC by weight. This limit sounds low, but the weight-based metric does not account for heavier products, like food and drinks.

    For example, a 50-gram candy bar – roughly the size of a Snickers bar – with 150 milligrams of hemp-derived delta-9 THC is legal in the 34 states that don’t have milligram caps on hemp products. This is a dose 15 times higher than what any recreational marijuana market allows. Meanwhile, states that only restrict hemp’s delta-9 content also leave the door open to products with high amounts of other forms of THC.

    At least 13 states have responded to potency concerns by adding milligram caps on the total THC permitted in a single serving of a hemp product. Some of these limits are so low – 1 milligram or less in Connecticut, New York, Montana and Rhode Island – that one serving is unlikely to cause impairment.

    Enforcement is a wild card

    Only regulations that are enforced are effective, and states differ in the level of energy they devote to industry oversight.

    In Virginia, the Office of Hemp Enforcement has issued over $12 million in fines to noncompliant hemp retailers since its creation in 2023. On the other end of the spectrum, Massachusetts considers hemp-derived THC products illegal, but it has not provided local jurisdictions with funding for enforcement, resulting in continued availability of prohibited products.

    Some states with legal hemp markets have added additional sales taxes to help fund enforcement. In Nebraska, Missouri and Connecticut, attorneys general have sued hemp retailers for selling illegal items, marketing to minors and engaging in deceptive trade practices.

    As the hemp industry expands, so will concerns about how to protect public health. The demand for THC, and the market to supply it, continues to grow. If lawmakers want to develop industrywide safety standards or deal with the challenges of online marketplaces that sell hemp products to minors, it will take action from Washington. In the meantime, many states and policymakers are exploring an expansive middle ground between unfettered access and blanket bans.

    Katharine Neill Harris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A hazy legal landscape means people can get high on hemp products, even where pot is prohibited – https://theconversation.com/a-hazy-legal-landscape-means-people-can-get-high-on-hemp-products-even-where-pot-is-prohibited-247168

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The ‘lab-leak origin’ of Covid-19. Fact or fiction?

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Florence Débarre, Directrice de recherche CNRS, chercheuse en biologie évolutive, Sorbonne Université

    In a January 24 interview with the far-right-wing outlet Breitbart News, newly appointed CIA director John Ratcliffe stated that assessing intelligence on a potential Wuhan lab leak was a top priority. The following day, The New York Times reported that the agency had shifted from an undecided stance to favoring a possible Chinese lab leak, albeit with a “low confidence” rating–the lowest on a three-tier scale (low, medium, high)–indicating the evidence remains inconclusive.

    The CIA has thus joined the ranks of the FBI and the Department of Energy (DOE), which has scientific jurisdiction, in supporting the possibility of a laboratory-related incident.

    Findings from a 2023 reportshow that, among the U.S. agencies that have investigated the pandemic’s origins, one remains undecided, while four others, along with the National Intelligence Council, support the natural origin hypothesis.

    What does ‘laboratory origin’ really mean?

    According to The New York Times, the CIA’s revised assessment is based not on new evidence, but on a reinterpretation of existing data. However, the reasoning behind its reassessment, along with the supporting data, has not been made public, making it impossible to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of the agency’s conclusions.

    Adding to the complexity, “laboratory origin” is an umbrella term encompassing multiple, sometimes contradictory, scenarios. Confirming CNN’s 2023 report on the Department of Energy’s revised stance, The New York Times notes that while the DOE identifies the Wuhan Center for Disease Control (WCDC) as the outbreak’s likely source, the FBI attributes it to a lab leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). As of now, the CIA has not disclosed which scenario it deems most plausible.

    Though WCDC is not an actual research laboratory, some of its employees were participating in wildlife sampling campaigns at the time of the outbreak. In late 2019, WCDC moved to a location close to the Huanan Market. A theory implicating the WCDC confirms evidence that the earliest detected cases are epidemiologically and geographically linked to the market, suggesting the virus emerged naturally.

    In contrast, the WIV is a research institute operating across two campuses–one located 12 kilometers from the market and the other, which houses the P4 laboratory, 27 kilometers away. Scenarios implicating the WIV generally posit that “gain-of-function” coronavirus experiments–intended to enhance a virus’s transmissibility or virulence–were conducted under unsafe biosecurity conditions. The WIV is a biosafety level 2 facility, two levels below the high-security P4 standard.

    The interactive map above highlights Wuhan laboratories–the two WIV campuses in purple and the WCDC in yellow–and the Wuhan Huanan market in red. Click the symbol in the top left corner to view the legend. Since the WCDC is located near the market, please zoom in to see it.

    The Covid-19 virus originated from a single source. If it did escape from a Chinese laboratory, it could not have simultaneously leaked from two separate labs conducting different types of research.

    The lab leak scenario, supported by mutually incompatible hypotheses, doesn’t hold up–even before considering theories that the virus was engineered in a U.S. lab and then sent to Wuhan.

    Beyond determining the virus’s origin, it is equally important to identify the exact nature of the virus–further complicating the lab-accident hypothesis. Was it a natural occurring virus contracted during a sampling campaign? A laboratory-cultivated virus transferred to cells or animals? Or even a directly genetically modified virus?

    Again, SARS-CoV-2 cannot be both a natural virus and the result of lab experiments. Arguments built on conflicting premises do little to strengthen the case for a research-related incident.

    No evidence of a laboratory-related incident

    The lab-incident hypothesis would carry much more weight if definitive proof emerged that, by late December 2019, a Wuhan laboratory possessed a progenitor of SARS-CoV-2–meaning a virus identical or nearly identical to SARS-CoV-2.

    In the case of the 2007 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in southern England, for example, virus sequencing quickly led investigators to nearby high-security laboratories conducting research on a similar virus. The inquiry ultimately traced the outbreak to faulty effluent pipes at the facilities.

    To date, no virus has been identified that could be used in a laboratory as a direct progenitor of SARS-CoV-2. If the virus did emerge from a research-related incident, two possibilities remain: it was either an uncharacterized natural virus, unknown even to researchers, or it was a previously characterized virus that had not been disclosed–either because it was recently identified or part of a classified program–and is still being kept under wraps by scientists in Wuhan.

    Especially if SARS-CoV-2 were the result of genetic engineering. A lab-modified virus would mean its genetic sequence was known before the pandemic and accessible to researchers. However, by 2021, the U.S. intelligence community had determined that researchers at the WIV had no prior knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 before the outbreak. While absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, concrete data has yet to emerge supporting the hypothesis of laboratory modification.

    Theories about a potential lab outbreak have also fueled speculation about external involvement, both within China and abroad. A U.S. Senate committee report put forward an all-Chinese scenario, citing the suspicious 2020 death of a Beijing-based researcher working on a new vaccine.

    Other theories center on the NGO EcoHealth Alliance, which collaborated with WIV to collect and study natural coronavirus strains before its funding was abruptly cut off at Donald Trump’s request in Spring 2020. The organization’s president has since been banned from federal funding for five years, facing criticism over oversight issues, including delayed reporting of an experiment on a chimeric coronavirus and failure to provide WIV’s laboratory notebooks.

    Among the most high-profile figures implicated in U.S.-based complicity theories is Anthony Fauci, the former White House Covid advisor and head of the agency that funded the EcoHealth Alliance/WIV collaboration. But allegations against Fauci go far beyond simply approving research grants. One narrative claims he deliberately suppressed discussions about the pandemic’s point of origin, pressuring researchers to alter their conclusions in exchange for funding. No evidence has surfaced to support this claim.

    Anticipating potential retribution from his successor and the Republican Party, Former President Joe Biden preemptively granted Fauci a presidential pardon. However, newly elected President Donald Trump has since revoked Fauci’s personal security detail, and Republican Senator Rand Paul has vowed to continue efforts to prosecute him.

    The natural-origin theory faces hurdles as well

    Since these competing lab leak theories have emerged from a lack of conclusive evidence anything is possible. However, available data suggest the virus may have originated naturally from animals sold at the Huanan Market.

    Multiple sources, including research from Chinese institutions, support this hypothesis: two early SARS-CoV-2 strains were detected at the market, with the earliest cases reported in homes within the vicinity, even for patients without direct epidemiological links to it, and findings from the Chinese Center for Disease Control (CCDC) indicate that raccoon dogs and masked palm civets–species implicated in earlier SARS outbreaks–were present in the market’s southwest corner, where traces of SARS-CoV-2 were frequently detected.

    However, by the time the China CDC team arrived at the Huanan Market–just hours after its closure for sample collection–raccoon dogs and civets were no longer present. As a result, no direct traces of infection were detected, and the definitive evidence some are hoping for may never be uncovered.

    But even if such proof were to emerge, it’s unlikely to settle the debate. Additional confirmation would be needed to show that the contamination originated in the animals rather than being a secondary infection transmitted by humans. Moreover, skeptics could argue that the animals themselves came from a laboratory. In other words, the controversy is far from over.

    For now, with the new Trump administration focused on finding a culprit, the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic will remain in the spotlight. Senator Rand Paul, now chair of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC), has made the issue his favorite hobbyhorse.

    While declassifying additional information from the U.S. intelligence community could help clarify competing conclusions, there are concerns that the administration’s efforts may unfairly target researchers, potentially resulting in more innocent victims.

    Florence Débarre received funding in 2022 from the MODCOV19 platform of the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences and their Interactions (Insmi, CNRS) to model the initial dynamics of an epidemic.

    – ref. The ‘lab-leak origin’ of Covid-19. Fact or fiction? – https://theconversation.com/the-lab-leak-origin-of-covid-19-fact-or-fiction-250462

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Smart is sexy – new study on fish doing puzzles hints intelligence partly evolved via sexual selection

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ivan Vinogradov, Animal Behaviour Researcher, Australian National University

    Turner Brockman/iNaturalist, CC BY-SA

    We humans often underestimate the intelligence of other animals. You’ve probably seen videos of monkeys, ravens or parrots solving puzzles.

    But fish also possess impressive problem-solving skills, despite the notorious slander that goldfish have a three-second memory.

    The intelligence of animals can be a useful tool when testing various ideas in biology. For example, could intelligence have evolved in part thanks to sexual selection, rather than as a means of survival?

    In a new study published in Nature Ecology & Evolution, we used distinct tests to measure cognitive abilities of male mosquitofish – a thumb-sized fish endemic to central America but now a major pest in many parts of the world, including Australia.

    We then tracked how many offspring each male produced when competing for mates in small ponds. Our study showed that smarter males had more offspring than their less intelligent brethren.

    Our findings imply that the evolution of cognitive abilities may have been driven by sexual selection, with smarter males gaining more mating opportunities.

    To be smart is to survive

    Cognitive abilities, such as learning and problem solving, likely arose because they helped animals gather food, find shelter and avoid predators.

    Individuals that were better at these tasks lived longer and passed on genes to their offspring that improved the offspring’s performance. Natural selection favoured smarter survivors who had more descendants than the average individual.

    As a result, populations became smarter over time.

    But there is another explanation for the evolution of intelligence: smarter is sexy. A better brain might help an animal find more mates, have more sex, and eventually have more babies.

    If this is the case, intelligence partly evolved through sexual selection, where traits that boost mating and fertilisation success become more common over generations.

    We did our study on male fish – sexual selection is usually stronger on males than females, because in most species there are more males seeking mates than females ready to mate and breed.

    A shoal of mosquitofish.
    David Fanner

    Measuring animal IQ

    Even in humans, intelligence can be difficult to pin down: maths skills, creativity, street smarts, and standardised IQ tests all capture different aspects of human braininess.

    For animals, this challenge is tougher still. But biologists broadly agree that cognition is the ability to acquire, store, process, and act on information; and that distinct cognitive abilities are governed by different brain regions.

    We designed four special underwater tests to tap into these distinct cognitive abilities of our male mosquitofish.

    First, we measured their spatial learning by placing fish in a maze with a single correct route that led them to a shoal of their compatriots. Mosquitofish are highly motivated to swim with other fish, so reaching this shoal acts as a reward for solving the maze.

    Second, we measured their self-control (formally called “inhibitory control”) by placing a transparent barrier between the fish and a reward. We then documented how quickly a male learned not to swim into the barrier but to detour around it.

    A variation of the apparatus used to test self-control in mosquitofish. Fish needed to overcome their impulse to swim straight through the transparent barrier and detour it instead.
    Ivan Vinogradov

    Then, we measured associative learning by presenting a fish with two coloured corridors once a day. One colour (for example, green) led to a dead end, while the other (for example, red) to a reward.

    The number of days it took a male to consistently choose the correct corridor – the one with a reward – indicated how quickly they learned the association.

    Lastly, we reversed the colour cues to measure reversal learning. If green, for example, was previously the dead end, it now became the reward corridor, while red became the dead end. This tested how quickly the fish could “overwrite” his previously learned association to learn the new one.

    A winning edge in mating

    After these tests, we moved the males to ponds where they competed for mates. Two months later, the females gave birth, and genetic paternity tests revealed who fathered each offspring.

    Males that scored highly on self-control and spatial learning had significantly more children. But why?

    Something about these males seemingly gave them an edge in securing mating opportunities. Perhaps females recognised and preferred smarter males? Maybe smarter males were better at chasing the females and forcing them to mate (a common, if unpleasant, practice in mosquitofish).

    Future research is needed to observe the males’ mating behaviours more closely and see if smarter and dumber males differ in how they court mates.

    Our research sheds light on the evolution of our most prized possession – the brain. It seems that sophisticated intelligence isn’t only driven by our need to find food or avoid danger to survive, but also by the complex challenges of finding love.

    Ivan Vinogradov does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Smart is sexy – new study on fish doing puzzles hints intelligence partly evolved via sexual selection – https://theconversation.com/smart-is-sexy-new-study-on-fish-doing-puzzles-hints-intelligence-partly-evolved-via-sexual-selection-249862

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Some of Australia’s largest companies are failing to ‘know and show’ their respect for human rights

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Birchall, Senior Lecturer in Law, Macquarie University

    The skyline of Sydney’s central business district. Olga Kashubin/Shutterstock

    In our complex, interconnected world, there are risks of human rights violations throughout global supply chains. Examples include not only modern slavery and child labour, but also gender discrimination and violations of land, food and water rights.

    Many people care deeply about whether the companies they support are monitoring and addressing these issues. So, how do some of the biggest Australian companies measure up?

    To answer this question, we analysed the human rights commitments of 25 of the top companies listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), including some of our largest banks and mining companies.

    We found Australian companies have a long way to go in “knowing and showing” a commitment to respect human rights, suggesting an urgent need for reform.

    One response could be for Australia to follow the European Union’s lead and create a mandatory human rights due diligence regime.



    Read more:
    Many global corporations will soon have to police up and down their supply chains as EU human rights ‘due diligence’ law nears enactment

    International best practice

    Our analysis used the World Benchmarking Alliance’s Corporate Human Rights Benchmark Core UNGP Indicators.

    This benchmark uses 12 indicators that draw on the United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights (UNGP), the authoritative international standard.

    There are human rights risks across many stages of global supply chains.
    JULY_P30/Shutterstock

    The indicators are grouped into three themes:

    1. policy commitments to respect human rights
    2. embedding respect through ongoing human rights due diligence
    3. enabling accessible remedies and grievance mechanisms for workers and external stakeholders.

    Companies score between zero and two points on each indicator, depending on how they satisfy its requirements. The maximum possible score is 24.

    It’s important to understand that the aim of our study was not to assess whether these companies have been violating human rights. Rather, it was to evaluate whether companies have disclosed their policies and processes to respect human rights.

    The UN Guiding Principles expect companies to have suitable due diligence processes in place and make these publicly available in an accessible form.

    Ideally, companies should clearly state that they respect all human rights. This includes rights such as nondiscrimination, the prohibition on forced or child labour, freedom to join trade unions, and the right to a clean environment.

    They should outline in detail the mechanisms in place to identify and address actual or potential abuses. On top of this, detail which officials in the company hold responsibility for managing these issues.

    The better companies would even disclose examples of human rights abuses that they discovered in their operations, such as modern slavery or a gender pay gap.

    Poor performance overall

    Our research covered the 25 largest Australian companies by market capitalisation that had not previously been assessed under this benchmark.

    This included some of the leading Australian companies from a range of sectors – mining, banks, energy, insurance, transportation, telecommunication, media, health care and pharmaceuticals.

    Scores were poor overall. The best-performing company scored eight out of a possible 24 points. The average score was 3.6.

    Many companies were found to be making vague or ambiguous human rights commitments or only focusing on a narrow set of modern slavery risks.

    No company disclosed all of the human rights due diligence processes needed to identify, prevent, mitigate and remediate human rights risks. Nor did any disclose how they consulted with relevant stakeholders such as workers or displaced communities to help them understand and identify relevant human rights risks in company operations.

    Only ten of the 25 companies provided a mechanism for external individuals and communities to raise human rights complaints or concerns.

    Companies scored particularly poorly on the second group of indicators: embedding respect through ongoing human rights due diligence. The average score here was 0.58 out of 12.

    Many companies only focused on identifying and addressing modern slavery in their operations, to the exclusion of other human rights risks such as sexual harassment or environmental pollution.

    It was also concerning that companies we assessed often passed the burden of compliance to suppliers. That is, they established higher expectations for suppliers’ conduct than they set for their own.

    Legal requirements made a difference

    Our research found that companies scored well in making human rights commitments where there was a legal obligation to do so.

    Every company, for example, scored the point available for hosting a grievance mechanism for workers to raise concerns about the company. This is because Australia’s Corporations Act requires companies to create a whistleblower mechanism.

    Similarly, most companies disclosed elements of their modern slavery due diligence process, because this is legally required under the Modern Slavery Act.

    Proactive steps

    It is clear from our research that many large Australian companies are not operating in line with international standards.

    That means they also aren’t ready to comply with the ripple effects of the mandatory human rights due diligence laws recently introduced in Europe.

    These laws will require large Australian companies that do significant business in Europe to conduct comprehensive human rights due diligence.

    The European Union has recently introduced mandatory human rights due diligence laws.
    VanderWolf Images/Shutterstock

    Australian companies must take proactive steps to comply with international standards. This means making a public commitment to respect all human rights, establishing and publicly disclosing their human rights due diligence process.

    It will also mean involving everyone who is affected by or has an interest in the company’s activities throughout the due diligence process. This includes making sure they have a way to raise concerns and seek remedies.

    The Australian government has a vital role in ensuring that companies take their human rights responsibilities seriously. The current reporting regime under the Modern Slavery Act has proven very weak, confirmed under a recent formal review.

    Our findings suggest the government should enact a stronger and broader mandatory human rights due diligence law covering all human rights.

    David Birchall is Deputy Director of the B&HR Access to Justice Lab at Macquarie Law School.

    Ebony Birchall is the Deputy Director of the B&HR Access to Justice Lab at Macquarie University. She has previously received research funding from the Australian Government, Macquarie University and the Freedom Fund.

    Surya Deva is Director of the B&HR Access to Justice Lab at Macquarie University. He is currently UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Development. He has previously received funding from the GIZ, the UNDP, the Freedom Fund and the International Commission of Jurists. He is part of the World Benchmarking Alliance’s Expert Review Committee. The Lab received funding from Maurice Blackburn Lawyers and the World Benchmarking Alliance to cover the costs of hosting an event to launch this report.

    – ref. Some of Australia’s largest companies are failing to ‘know and show’ their respect for human rights – https://theconversation.com/some-of-australias-largest-companies-are-failing-to-know-and-show-their-respect-for-human-rights-250055

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The major parties want 9 in 10 GP visits bulk billed by 2030. Here’s why we shouldn’t aim for 100%

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yuting Zhang, Professor of Health Economics, The University of Melbourne

    Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock

    Unaffordable GP visits has become a pressing issue amid the increasing cost-of-living crisis. About 30% of Australians delayed or didn’t see a GP in 2023–24.

    To solve this problem, Labor has proposed extending bulk billing incentives to all Australians. It hopes to increase bulk billing from 78% to 90% by 2030.

    The Coalition has promised to match Labor’s plan.

    Why not aim for 100%? It might seem a worthy goal to make GP care free for everyone, for every visit. But the evidence suggests there’s benefit to getting those on higher incomes to contribute a small amount to the cost of seeing a GP.

    GP care should be free for these Australians

    We should aim for access to GP care to be affordable and equitable. For some people, this should mean they can access the services for free.

    Appointments for children should be free. Making health checks regular and accessible during childhood is an effective long-term investment which can delay the onset of disease.

    GP visits should also be free for people with low incomes. Free primary care can mean people who would otherwise avoid seeing a GP can have their ongoing conditions managed, undergo preventive health checks, and fill prescriptions.

    When people skip GP visits and can’t afford to fill their prescriptions, their conditions can worsen. This can reduce the person’s quality of life, and require higher-cost emergency department visits and hospital care.

    Appointments in rural and remote areas should also be free. Australians living in rural and remote areas currently pay more to see a GP, have less access to care when they need it, and experience poorer health outcomes and shorter lives than their city counterparts.

    Making GP visits free for rural and remote Australians would help reduce this rural–urban gap.

    Rural Australians find it harder to see a GP when they need one.
    Michael Leslie/Shutterstock

    However, providing free GP care for everyone can cause unnecessary strain on health budgets and make the policy unsustainable in the long run.

    What can happen if you make care free for all?

    In general, when the price is low, or something is free, people use these services more. This includes medical care and medications. Free GP care may encourage more people to see their GP more than is necessary.

    Previous research showed that free care increased the use of health care but does not necessarily improve health outcomes, especially for those who are relatively healthy.

    If people are using GP services when they’re not really needed, this takes limited resources from those who really need them and can increase waiting times.

    Australia is already experiencing a GP shortage. Higher patient volumes could leave existing GPs overwhelmed and overstretched. This can reduce the quality of care.

    Countries that have made primary health care free for all, such as Canada and the United Kingdom, still report issues with access and equity. In Canada, 22% of Canadian adults do not have access to regular primary care. In the United Kingdom, people who live in poor areas struggle to get access to care.

    Make co-payments more affordable

    To balance affordability for patients with the financial viability of primary care, Australians who can afford to contribute to the cost of their GP care should pay a small amount.

    However, the A$60 many of us currently pay to visit a GP is arguably too expensive, as it may prompt some to forego care when they need it.

    A relatively smaller co-payment in the range of around $20 to $30 to visit the GP would help discourage unnecessary visits when resources are limited, but be less likely to turn patients off seeking this care.

    Providing free GP visits for all may not be efficient or sustainable, but making it more affordable and equitable can lead to a more efficient and sustainable care system and doing so is within our reach.



    Read more:
    Should we aim to bulk-bill everyone for GP visits? We asked 5 experts

    Yuting Zhang has received funding from the Australian Research Council (future fellowship project ID FT200100630), Department of Veterans’ Affairs, the Victorian Department of Health, and National Health and Medical Research Council. In the past, Professor Zhang has received funding from several US institutes including the US National Institutes of Health, Commonwealth fund, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. She has not received funding from for-profit industry including the private health insurance industry.

    Karinna Saxby has previously received funding from the Department of Health and Aged Care,

    – ref. The major parties want 9 in 10 GP visits bulk billed by 2030. Here’s why we shouldn’t aim for 100% – https://theconversation.com/the-major-parties-want-9-in-10-gp-visits-bulk-billed-by-2030-heres-why-we-shouldnt-aim-for-100-249605

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Calling 000 for help in an emergency doesn’t work in parts of Australia – but a new plan could change that

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark A Gregory, Associate Professor, School of Engineering, RMIT University

    robert paul van beets/Shutterstock

    People could soon make mobile calls and send SMS text messages from the remotest parts of Australia, under a new election promise from the federal Albanese government to overhaul the country’s mobile phone network.

    The proposal would create a new universal outdoor mobile obligation for Australian mobile carriers such as Telstra, Optus and Vodafone. This obligation would require carriers to work with companies operating low Earth orbit satellites to provide access to mobile voice, SMS and the Triple Zero (000) service almost everywhere across Australia.

    This world-first reform would be a major step forward for public safety – especially in regional and remote areas, where mobile coverage is currently poor to nonexistent. The Albanese government says that if it wins the upcoming election, it would implement the reform by late 2027.

    However, implementing it will come with some technical challenges.

    Satellites boost mobile access

    Low Earth orbit satellites operate at an altitude of between 160km and 2,000km above the Earth’s surface. Examples include the roughly 7,000 Starlink satellites owned and operated by tech billionaire Elon Musk’s company, SpaceX, that are currently in orbit.

    The new generation of these satellites incorporates a technology known as “direct to device”. This means they can directly connect with mobile phones. And it is this feature the Labor government’s new proposal seeks to utilise.

    Specifically, the proposal aims to:

    • expand Triple Zero (000) access for Australians across the nation
    • expand outdoor voice and SMS coverage into existing mobile black spots
    • improve the availability of mobile signals during disasters and power outages.

    The proposal adds to carriers’ existing obligations to provide fixed phone and internet services across Australia.

    In a few years, low Earth orbit satellites should also be able to provide data using an enhanced direct to device technology. The government has said it will consider including data in the obligation when the opportunity arises.

    Staying safer and better connected in the bush

    The telecommunications industry has long worked towards a goal of providing universal outdoor mobile coverage in Australia. Labor’s new proposal provides the impetus for the industry to take this major step forward.

    It would also provide the guidance necessary to ensure a consumer safety focus remains the fundamental rationale for telecommunications.

    This policy would ensure everyone can connect to emergency services, friends and family during emergencies or natural disasters.

    The benefits for people living and working in regional and remote areas would be considerable.

    For example, truck drivers experiencing a breakdown in the outback would be able to call for assistance. And farmers working in the remote wheat belt regions of Western Australia could stay connected with other workers and their families.

    Technical problems to solve

    However, there are some technical problems the telecommunications industry will need to overcome to achieve universal outdoor mobile coverage.

    Across the world, nations are rolling out mobile networks that use different radio frequencies. For the universal outdoor mobile obligation to be successful, the mobile carriers will need to work with satellite providers to ensure the spectrum bands used in Australia for the 4G, and in the future 5G, mobile networks will also work with satellites.

    Mobile devices connect with the network when the user makes a phone call, sends an SMS text message or browses the internet.

    When the mobile is connected to a low Earth orbit satellite, it’s important that it can tell apps to “shut up” and stop trying to connect to the network to transmit data. Otherwise the connected mobiles could cause congestion and limit service reliability and resilience.

    There are mobile handsets that have this capability today. But the vast majority of older mobile handsets do not. A list of compatible mobile handsets would need to be compiled and made available, so that consumers can consider this information when purchasing a mobile.

    To connect to a low Earth orbit satellite, it is anticipated a mobile will need to be used in a location where the sky can be seen directly. And initially at least, using a satellite-connected mobile inside a vehicle will require an external antenna.

    The universal outdoor mobile obligation would enable drivers experiencing a breakdown in the outback to call for help.
    DedovStock/Shutterstock

    A timely step forward

    The government says the introduction of a universal outdoor mobile obligation would provide an opportunity to modernise and expand existing service obligations for mobile carriers. For both to be successful, there is also a need for minimum performance standards.

    Providing mobile voice call and SMS text access across Australia is of little value if the service quality is poor, and fails during an emergency or natural disaster.

    That being said, Labor’s proposal should gain bipartisan support. It is a timely step forward that will bring positive outcomes for all Australians, especially those living and working in regional and remote areas.

    Mark A Gregory has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Communications Consumer Action Network grants program and the auDA Foundation. Life member of the Telecommunications Association.

    – ref. Calling 000 for help in an emergency doesn’t work in parts of Australia – but a new plan could change that – https://theconversation.com/calling-000-for-help-in-an-emergency-doesnt-work-in-parts-of-australia-but-a-new-plan-could-change-that-250762

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Remembering Roberta Flack, a spellbinding virtuoso of musical interpretation

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Leigh Carriage, Senior Lecturer in Music, Southern Cross University

    The multi-Grammy award winner Roberta Flack has passed away at 88.

    Her approach and sound were a unique combination of soul, folk, rhythm and blues, jazz, pop and musicianship, and arranging skills so broad she had had a lasting impact on future artists.

    Her sustained career laid a foundation for pop and neo-soul artists Alicia Keys, Erykah Badu, Solange, J Dilla, Flying Lotus, and D’Angelo.

    Over her career, Flack performed some original songs, but she is better known for her myriad of covers and performances of songs written for her. No matter who wrote the songs, she made all of them her own. She was a master of musical interpretation.

    An early life of music

    Flack was born in North Carolina in 1937. Both of her parents played piano; her mother was the church organist.

    Her early interest in gospel tunes was encouraged and supported with her participation in a local Baptist church in Arlington, Virginia, and many relatives who sang.

    Her formal classical musical training continued at Howard University. After a brief period teaching at a junior high school, Flack started landing regular bookings at Mr. Henry’s, a Washington DC bar where Flack performed a range of traditional spirituals, jazz, blues and folk repertoire.

    In 1968, she signed with Atlantic Records.

    Her brilliant debut

    Her debut album, First Take, was recorded over just ten hours in 1969 at Atlantic Recording Studios, New York. First take indeed! Genius!

    Considering Flack’s background, religious inspiration and being surrounded by the social movements of the 1960s, it is not surprising that her first album features songs that address race and religion. The album creates a fusion of music with themes of spiritually and compelling political issues.

    Flack blended genres effortlessly. One of the highlights of the album is Flack’s interpretation of the folk song The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face. Written in 1957 by British political singer-songwriter Ewan MacColl for the vocalist Peggy Seeger, Flack’s interpretation is notably delivered with a deliberately slower tempo, and with legato phrasing – smooth, and connected.

    The lesser-known second track, the Venezuelan/Mexican song Angelitos Negros, offers a soulful statement of black rights.

    Flack’s powerful vocal delivery evokes a haunting sense of loss and refined passion. This, combined with her choice of musical arrangement with repeating lyrics, forms a commanding protest song.

    Always forging her own path

    Labels often described her work as “adult contemporary” or “easy-listening”.

    This barely addresses the diversity within her catalogue, which features Broadway ballads like The Impossible Dream, her definitive interpretation of Leonard Cohen’s Hey, That’s No Way To Say Goodbye, Bee Gees and Beatles songs, and folk classics.

    Blending genres like jazz, latin, rock and folk with nuanced elements of classical into her own arrangements and song interpretations, to the listener Flack’s interpretation becomes authorship.

    In this way, Flack played a role in defining pop music’s processes.

    Flack is best known for her majestic indelible early hits songs like Killing Me Softly with His Song, Where Is the Love and The Closer I Get to You.

    The 1973 live recording of Killing Me Softly With His Song, written by Charles Fox and Norman Gimbel, is breathtaking.

    Flack opens without an introduction: straight in, delicately infusing the lyrics with a vast array of tonal shades. The smooth phrases are delivered with a beautifully aligned dynamic, like the most carefully crafted expression.

    In 1996 Killing Me Softly with His Song, was reinvented by the Fugees with lead vocalist Lauryn Hill.

    Where Is the Love, a duet with Donny Hathaway, brings together their two legendary voices perfectly. Here were two highly skilled pianists with incredible musicality with voices that blended perfectly together.

    I have always enjoyed Flack’s version of Compared to What. Flack’s emotive delivery; the warmth of her tone; the panache; the edgeless smooth phrasing pulls you near in complete comfort.

    For Flack the lyric meaning – telling the story with clarity and honesty – was paramount. Her expression is refined with understated inventiveness. There is such power in her performances. She is spellbinding, reaching a deep soulful place that is both classically and contemporarily informed.

    While Flack wrote some songs, such as You Know What It’s Like, she was not predominantly a songwriter. Instead, she was a virtuosic interpreter of music. Whether penned by Flack or not, each song’s interpretation sounds authored by her. That is the sense you are getting when you listen to her music: it doesn’t matter who it’s written by, her interpretation makes you believe it is by her.

    Leigh Carriage does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Remembering Roberta Flack, a spellbinding virtuoso of musical interpretation – https://theconversation.com/remembering-roberta-flack-a-spellbinding-virtuoso-of-musical-interpretation-250763

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –