NewzIntel.com

Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: The anatomy of fight-ending blows and chokes in combat sports

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adam Taylor, Professor of Anatomy, Lancaster University

    The human body has evolved to shield its vital organs, from the brain’s hard skull and meninges to the ribs and sternum protecting the heart and lungs. Even abdominal structures are safeguarded by muscular layers. In contact sports, understanding these vulnerabilities can give competitors the edge, allowing them to take down an opponent with a knockout or submission.

    Head and neck

    In many sports, a blow to the head is a quick route to a knockout (KO). Strikes to the side of the head can lead to KOs — and sadly, sometimes death. These blows can rupture vital blood vessels around the brain, triggering rapid bleeding that causes instant symptoms or slowly compresses the brain, leading to a coma and eventual death.

    Blows to the chin are usually much more effective for an instant KO. They can generate significant force by rotational acceleration through the brain tissue. They may also result in “diffuse axonal injury”, where the force generated causes long nerves in the brain to stretch or tear.

    The neck is often exploited in mixed martial arts (MMA) and jiu-jitsu. The rear-naked choke is one of the more effective, taking 8.9 seconds to render an opponent unconscious. This choke cuts off blood flow to the brain through the two main carotid arteries, which each deliver up to 590ml of blood to the brain per minute.

    It takes just nine seconds to render someone unconscious with a rear naked choke.
    Marco Crupi/Shutterstock

    Unconsciousness from the heart stopping beating can occur in as little as eight seconds. Arteries running through the neck to the brain are also susceptible to direct trauma in combat sports, potentially leading to paralysis or even death.

    Nerves and bones

    The legs are a key target in combat sports, such as muay thai and MMA. Low kicks to the outside of the thigh and buttock area target the sciatic nerve – the largest nerve in the body. The sciatic nerve supplies muscles on the back of your leg and bottom of your foot.

    Although this nerve is rarely permanently injured in most sports, repeated trauma can cause numbness, weakness or paralysis of the muscles it supplies.

    Another target is a branch of the sciatic nerve called the common peroneal nerve. It sits underneath a bony bulge on the outside of your leg just below the knee. Repeated targeting of this nerve can result in the inability to stand because the foot drops and the person can’t sense its position or inability to move the affected foot.

    Because of the direction of kicks to this area, almost 60% of muay thai fighters report contracture (shortening) of their calf (gastrocnemius) muscle, in response to repeated trauma.

    Armbars and ankle locks are also rapid ways to bring things to an end. Armbars involve trapping the arm in such a way that the elbow is in the hyper-extended position, trying to force it beyond straight. On the back of the joint is a large bony bulge called the olecranon, which prevents over-extension.

    If an opponent doesn’t “tap out”, the joint cavity and tissues of the elbow sprain or tear or the radius or ulna break.

    Ankle locks are often described as one of the most painful locks. This is because, when done properly, it hyper-extends the ankle joint and compresses the achilles tendon, which is the largest and thickest tendon in the body and has many sensory receptors for pressure.

    This is further exacerbated because many of the nerves passing through the ankle have little or no protection from muscle or connective tissues and there are 11 ligaments that support the ankle, all now having excessive forces stretch through them.

    Abdomen

    Attacking the abdomen is common in combat sports as it’s an easier target to hit than the head. There are two blows to this area that can end a fight. Blows to the liver and to the spleen.

    The liver sits on the right, protected by the ribs. But hitting the body over or just below this area can send shock waves into the liver that result in instant crippling pain because of the large number of critical nerves that sit behind it. These nerves are responsible for important functions including monitoring organ status and blood vessel diameter.

    Some of these punches can result in death from internal bleeding. The liver receives a huge volume of blood: 25% of the heart’s output. Any significant injury can tear the liver, causing fatal blood loss.

    The left side can have similar consequences, tucked behind the lower ribs at the back on this side is the spleen, a soft and blood-filled organ which is often silently or subtly torn by blunt-force trauma, such as car accidents, contact sports or broken ribs.

    It often gives no or vague symptoms and can bleed slowly after the initial injury occurrence, resulting in collapse or death a few hours after the event.

    The heart

    Commotio cordis is a rare cause of sudden death, occurring most commonly in young male athletes who are struck in the chest. It occurs in the absence of visible heart damage.

    This trauma causes a fatal interruption to the electrical activity of the regular heartbeat. The reason that all chest blows don’t result in this outcome is because it is believed to have to happen at a specific part of the electrical conduction through the heart – called the T-wave, which usually accounts for about 1% of the heartbeat cycle time. The T-wave increases with exercise, which is why commotio cordis is usually seen in exercising young athletes.

    For commotio cordis to occur, the impact must generate roughly 50 joules of energy, which is roughly equivalent to a baseball travelling at about 40mph.

    The illegal stuff

    Most of the above blows are allowed in most combat sports. However, some things that occur during fights aren’t. Punching the back of the head – so-called rabbit punches are banned because they can snap the cervical vertebrae at the top of the neck and potentially the spinal cord, which can have significant lifelong injuries, or even death.

    Likewise, groin strikes are banned too, they can prevent people from having children and are incredibly painful because of the vast number of highly sensitive nerves that supply that area in men and women.

    While reading this may make you wince, it also brings a newfound respect for those athletes who train and repeatedly put themselves through a gruelling regime in these true contact sports.

    Adam Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The anatomy of fight-ending blows and chokes in combat sports – https://theconversation.com/the-anatomy-of-fight-ending-blows-and-chokes-in-combat-sports-248382

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The quest to extend human life is both fascinating and fraught with moral peril

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Richard Gunderman, Chancellor’s Professor of Medicine, Liberal Arts, and Philanthropy, Indiana University

    Tech entrepreneur Bryan Johnson has made it his life’s mission to delay aging and death. Netflix

    “Who wants to live forever?” Freddie Mercury mournfully asks in Queen’s 1986 song of the same name.

    The answer: Quite a few people – so much so that life extension has long been a cottage industry.

    As a physician and scholar in the medical humanities, I’ve found the quest to expand the human lifespan both fascinating and fraught with moral peril.

    During the 1970s and 80s, for example, The Merv Griffin Show featured one guest 32 times – life extension expert Durk Pearson, who generated more fan mail than any guest except Elizabeth Taylor. In 1982, he and his partner, Sandy Shaw, published the book “Life Extension: A Practical Scientific Approach,” which became a No. 1 New York Times bestseller and sold over 2 million copies. One specific recommendation involved taking choline and vitamin B5 in order to reduce cognitive decline, combat high blood pressure and reduce the buildup of toxic metabolic byproducts.

    Last year, Pearson died at 82, and Shaw died in 2022 at 79.

    The 1982 book by Durk Pearson and Sandy Shaw, ‘Life Extension: A Practical Scientific Approach,’ has sold millions of copies.
    Amazon

    No one can say for sure whether these life extension experts died sooner or later than they would have had they eschewed many of these supplements and instead simply exercised and ate a balanced diet. But I can say that they did not live much longer than many similarly well-off people in their cohort.

    Still, their dream of staying forever young is alive and well.

    Consider tech entrepreneur Bryan Johnson’s “Project Blueprint,” a life-extension effort that inspired the 2025 Netflix documentary “Don’t Die: The Man Who Wants to Live Forever.” His program has included building a home laboratory, taking more than 100 pills each day and undergoing blood plasma transfusions, at least one of which came from his son.

    And Johnson is not alone. Among the big names investing big bucks to prolong their lives are Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Google founders Sergei Brin and Larry Page, and Oracle’s Larry Ellison. One approach involves taking senolytics – drugs that target cells that may drive the aging process, though more research is needed to determine their safety and efficacy. Another is human growth hormone, which has long been touted as an anti-aging mechanism in ad campaigns that feature remarkably fit older people. (“How does this 69-year-old doctor have the body of a 30-year-old?” reads one web ad).

    These billionaires may reason that, because of their wealth, they have more to live for than ordinary folks. They may also share more prosaic motivations, such as a fear of growing old and dying.

    But underlying such desires is an equally important ethical – and, for some, spiritual – reality.

    Quality versus quantity

    Is it a good thing, morally speaking, to wish to live forever? Might there be aspects of aging and even death that are both good for the world and good for individuals?

    Cicero’s “On Aging” offers some insights. In fact, the ancient Roman statesman and philosopher noted that writing about it helped him to find peace with the vexations of growing old.

    In the text, Cicero outlines and responds to four common complaints about aging: It takes us away from managing our affairs, impairs bodily vigor, deprives us of sensual gratifications and brings us to the verge of death.

    To the charge that aging takes us away from managing our affairs, Cicero asks us to imagine a ship. Only the young climb the masts, run to and fro on the gangways, and bail the hold. But it is among the older and more experienced members of the crew that we find the captain who commands the ship. Rome’s supreme council was called the Senate, from the Latin for “elder,” and it is to those rich in years that we look most often for wisdom.

    Cicero was keen to distinguish between quantity and quality of life.
    Crisfotolux/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    As to whether aging impairs bodily vigor, Cicero claimed that strength and speed are less related to age than discipline. Many older people who take care of themselves are in better shape than the young, and he gives examples of people who maintained their vigor well into their later years. He argued that those who remain physically fit do a great deal to sustain their mental powers, a notion supported by modern science.

    Cicero reminds readers that these same pleasures of eating and drinking often lead people astray. Instead, people, as they age, can better appreciate the pleasures of mind and character. A great dinner becomes characterized less by what’s on the plate or the attractiveness of a dining partner than the quality of conversation and fellowship.

    While death remains an inevitable consequence of aging, Cicero distinguishes between quality and quantity of life. He writes that it is better to live well than to live long, and for those who are living well, death appears as natural as birth. Those who want to live forever have forgotten their place in the cosmos, which does not revolve around any single person or even species.

    Those of a more spiritual bent might find themselves drawn to the Scottish poet George MacDonald, who wrote: “Age is not all decay; it is the ripening, the swelling of the fresh life within, that withers and bursts the husk.”

    Embracing the circle of life

    What if the dreams of the life extension gurus were realized? Would the world be a better place?

    Would the extra good that a longer-lived Einstein could have accomplished be balanced or even exceeded by the harm of a Stalin who remained healthy and vigorous for decades beyond his death?

    At some point, preserving indefinitely the lives of those now living would mean less room for those who do not yet exist.

    Pearson and Shaw appeared on many other television programs in the 1970s and 1980s. During one such segment on “The Mike Douglas Show,” Pearson declared: “By the time you are 60, your immune function is perhaps one-fifth what it was when you were younger. Yet you can achieve a remarkable restoration simply by taking nutrients that you can get at a pharmacy or health food store.”

    For Pearson, life extension was a biomedical challenge, an effort more centered on engineering the self rather than the world.

    Despite making a living as life extension gurus, Durk Pearson, right, and Sandy Shaw didn’t live much longer than most Americans.

    Yet I would argue that the real challenge in human life is not to live longer, but to help others; adding extra years should be seen not as the goal but a byproduct of the pursuit of goodness.

    In the words of Susan B. Anthony: “The older I get, the greater power I seem to have to help the world; I am like a snowball – the further I am rolled, the more I gain.”

    Richard Gunderman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The quest to extend human life is both fascinating and fraught with moral peril – https://theconversation.com/the-quest-to-extend-human-life-is-both-fascinating-and-fraught-with-moral-peril-249430

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Rising house prices don’t just make it harder to become a homeowner – they also widen the racial wealth gap

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Joe LaBriola, Research Assistant Professor, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan

    Homeownership – long a cornerstone of the “the American dream” – is increasingly out of reach for the average American. Over the past four decades, U.S. house prices have risen by 75% in real terms, pushing the costs of homeownership for the typical first-time homebuyer to a record high. At the same time, these rising prices have significantly boosted the wealth of existing homeowners.

    As a sociologist who studies inequality in America through the lens of housing, I’ve spent the past few years looking into how rising house prices have affected the wealth gap between white and Black households, which has widened significantly over the past four decades. White families had about US$90,000 more wealth – in 2021 dollars – than their Black counterparts in 1984, an alarmingly wide gap. But by 2021, the gap had widened to almost $160,000.

    My recent peer-reviewed research, published in the journal Social Problems, found that the rise in house prices between 1984 and 2021 accounted for most of this widening gap. Using data from the University of Michigan’s Panel Study of Income Dynamics, which tracks a nationally representative group of American families over time, I explored how homeowners’ wealth trajectories would have differed if they hadn’t benefited from rising house prices.

    I found that housing market appreciation widened the median wealth gap between white and Black households by nearly $50,000 between 1984 and 2021. Given that home prices have continued to rise since 2021, it’s fair to assume that this gap has widened further over the past few years.

    Why a rising tide doesn’t lift all boats

    I also investigated why rising house prices widened the wealth gap by so much. The most important cause is the long-standing disparity in homeownership rates. White households had a homeownership rate of 74% at the end of 2021, compared with only 43% for Black households. As a result, they were much more likely to have benefited from rising home values, which directly increased their home equity.

    White homeowners also tend to own more expensive homes than Black homeowners. While this is a less important factor, it means that they saw greater absolute gains in home equity than Black homeowners from the same percentage rise in the housing market.

    However, I also found an interesting exception: Black homeowners benefited more from neighborhood-level housing market trends. One possible explanation is that the gentrification of Black neighborhoods in recent decades led to outsize housing market appreciation in these neighborhoods – which disproportionately boosted the home equity of existing Black homeowners.

    The impact of history – and ideas for the future

    I became interested in housing and wealth inequality when I attended graduate school in the San Francisco Bay Area, one of the least affordable housing markets in the world. Many homeowners who had bought their homes in the 1970s for tens of thousands of dollars were now sitting on millions of dollars in home equity. Meanwhile, buying a home in this area seemed out of reach for all but the highest-earning families, effectively locking renters out of the wealth-building effects of rising house prices.

    My curiosity about rising house prices led me to explore how they shape wealth inequality – not just between homeowners and renters, but also between racial groups. The more I read, the more I learned about the many legal, political and social barriers that have kept Black families from becoming homeowners.

    These include exclusionary zoning policies and racial covenants that locked Black families out of many neighborhoods, reduced access to mortgage lending in historically Black neighborhoods, and persistent hiring and workplace discrimination that have kept Black families from accumulating wealth.

    Addressing these inequities will require thoughtful policy solutions. As a sociologist studying these issues, I have some recommendations on contemporary policies that can increase access to homeownership for less affluent households. Given racial disparities in wealth, these policies would also help to reduce racial gaps in homeownership:

    • Reform local housing regulations: By easing restrictions on housing development, cities can help alleviate the housing shortage that’s helping to drive up home prices. Austin, Texas, is an example of a city that has successfully curbed rising home prices by dramatically increasing its housing construction. Lower house prices would then allow a greater range of families to own homes.

    • Implement land value taxes: Traditional property taxes can discourage residential development because landowners pay higher taxes after they develop their land. In contrast, land value taxes are only assessed on the value of the land, which encourages landowners to put their land to the most productive use. Over time, land value taxes would lead to greater residential development in areas that need it most, which would then reduce upward pressures on house prices.

    • Subsidize homeownership: While using federal funds to subsidize homeownership would come with the risk of inflating prices, this could help more low-income households enter and maintain homeownership and thereby benefit from future housing market appreciation.

    Future directions for research

    I am currently extending this work in several directions. In collaboration with Ohio State University sociologist Chinyere Agbai and Stone Center for Inequality Dynamics Student Associate Nils Neumann, I am examining how the home mortgage interest deduction has affected the wealth gap between white and Black households over time. Introduced in 1913, this deduction is one of the largest tax breaks available to American households, but Black households are much less likely than white households to benefit from it, in part due to lower rates of homeownership.

    Our preliminary findings suggest the home mortgage interest deduction has substantially widened the wealth gap between white and Black households over the past several decades.

    I’m also investigating the role of parental wealth in helping children buy homes in increasingly unaffordable housing markets. My findings suggest that young homebuyers in expensive areas come from much wealthier backgrounds and receive more financial assistance when buying their homes than first-time homebuyers in other neighborhoods. I also found that family help makes young adults substantially more likely to become first-time homeowners.

    If Americans want to work toward creating a more equitable society, understanding the connections between housing, wealth and racial inequality is an important place to start.

    In conducting this research, Joe LaBriola received support from the James M. and Cathleen D. Stone Center for Inequality Dynamics at the University of Michigan, the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the UC Berkeley Opportunity Lab, the Horowitz Foundation for Social Policy, and the UC Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies.

    – ref. Rising house prices don’t just make it harder to become a homeowner – they also widen the racial wealth gap – https://theconversation.com/rising-house-prices-dont-just-make-it-harder-to-become-a-homeowner-they-also-widen-the-racial-wealth-gap-250020

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can animals have mental disabilities?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Rachel Blaser, Professor of Neuroscience, Cognition and Behavior, University of San Diego

    Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com.

    Are there any animals with mental disabilities? – Adria G.

    Max was a fun-loving Labrador retriever who enjoyed going for car rides and greeting clients at his owner’s office. But around age 16, Max suddenly started having accidents in the house and stopped sleeping well at night. He became irritable and seemed not to understand the words and commands he had long known.

    Max was showing symptoms of a disorder called cognitive dysfunction syndrome, which can affect cats and dogs as they age. In dogs, it looks very similar to Alzheimer’s disease, which causes memory loss and dementia in humans, usually as they grow older.

    I study how humans and other animals learn, and my research involves working with many different species, from bees to pigeons and crawfish. Part of my work involves paying attention to conditions that can affect mental health in animals.

    Sometimes genetic or developmental changes affect how the brain is built, which can lead to mental disabilities or learning differences. In other cases, animals may be exposed to scary or stressful situations that can cause mental health problems. Here are some examples:

    Many dogs become stressed during thunderstorms. Creating a comfortable, enclosed “safe” space without windows inside your house can help.

    Understanding animal genes

    Down syndrome is a common genetic condition that can slow down learning and thinking in humans. People born with Down syndrome may have a harder time learning new things, remembering information and making complicated decisions.

    Down syndrome is caused by changes to a chromosome – the strands in our cells that store our genes. Normally, people have 23 pairs of chromosomes; when someone is born with an extra copy of chromosome 21, it produces the effects of Down syndrome.

    Most animals can’t have Down syndrome, because their genes are organized into chromosomes differently than human genes. However, our closest relatives, including chimpanzees and orangutans, do have a similar organization of genes. Conditions very much like Down syndrome have been observed in these species.

    One example, Kanako, was a female chimpanzee born in a research facility in Japan. She had vision and heart problems caused by an extra chromosome. Scientists don’t know whether Kanako had trouble with learning, because her vision problems made that difficult to test. However, Kanako enjoyed socializing with other chimpanzees and lived a long life in a wildlife sanctuary.

    Wild chimpanzees are probably also sometimes born with genetic conditions like Down syndrome, but the effects make it difficult to survive in the wild, just like being born with a heart or a foot that doesn’t develop normally. Kanako was able to live a healthy life thanks to the help of her human caretakers and good veterinary care.

    Science historian Laurel Braitman explains how she worked to understand her dog’s mental health disorders, and how studying these problems in animals can offer insights for treating similar problems in humans.

    Coping with trauma and stress

    Animals that are born healthy can also develop mental health problems in response to conditions around them.

    For example, just as soldiers may develop post-traumatic stress disorder after experiencing a life-threatening situation, working military and police dogs can develop a similar condition. Dogs with canine PTSD may cling to their owners, startle at everyday noises, or frequently act panicky or fearful.

    Veterinarians can prescribe anti-anxiety medication to help these dogs stay calm during scary events, like fireworks or thunderstorms. Owners also can use behavioral treatments to reward the dogs for staying calm and relaxed around things that seem frightening.

    Most traumatic events, like earthquakes or car accidents, can’t be predicted in advance. However, in some cases, such as capturing and restraining a wild animal to relocate it, workers use tranquilizers or sedatives to make the animal sleepy, or cover its eyes and ears to reduce fear and prevent long-lasting problems.

    Another common cause of mental health problems in animals is daily stress. Animals held in captivity at zoos, farms or research labs may experience stress from sources such as traffic noises, uncomfortable temperatures or not being able to engage in certain natural behaviors.

    Animals have many signature behaviors: Penguins swim, meerkats dig, baboons socialize and chickens take dust baths. When animals can’t do important behaviors, they may experience stress and mental problems.

    To keep this from happening, zookeepers and animal caretakers provide environmental enrichment – objects, structures and activities that stimulate the animals’ minds and help keep them from getting bored.

    An African penguin at the Maryland Zoo snatches at a knotted fire hose. Giving penguins novel objects to explore is one way to enriching their lives in captivity.
    Pacific Southwest Forest Service, USDA, CC BY

    Supporting your pet

    Sometimes it’s easy to see when animals are stressed or anxious. They may pace back and forth, spend their days in hiding or be unusually aggressive. Getting sick frequently or losing weight can also be a sign of poor mental health. Certain hormones, called corticosteroids, can be measured from a poop sample to provide clues about whether an animal is under too much stress.

    Even pets in loving homes can experience mental health problems. Some dogs struggle with separation anxiety – extreme fear of being left alone by their owner. Lack of mental or physical activity can also produce anxiety symptoms.

    Whether it means taking your dog to the dog park to run and socialize, or building puzzles that hide treats for your parakeet to find, keeping animals busy is good for them. In more serious cases, veterinarians can prescribe medication or behavioral treatments to help your pet feel better.

    Humans can use science to understand the many conditions that affect mental health in animals and find treatments to help them. We also can show compassion and care for others – whether human or animal – who experience mental problems.

    Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

    And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

    Rachel Blaser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can animals have mental disabilities? – https://theconversation.com/can-animals-have-mental-disabilities-247082

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Roman society integrated people who altered their bodies and defied gender norms

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Tom Sapsford, Assistant professor of Classical Studies, Boston College

    A relief showing a gallus making sacrifices to the goddess Cybele and Attis. Sailko via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

    A few weeks into his second term, President Donald Trump signed two executive orders restricting the rights of trans workers in the federal government. The first was a renewal of the ban on transgender people joining the U.S. military – initially signed in 2017 and later repealed by President Joe Biden in 2021. The second was a more sweeping memo that recognizes only two sexes in federal records and policies.

    In the ancient Roman world, which I study, biological sex and gender expression did not always line up as neatly as the president is demanding to see in today’s government.

    In antiquity, there were masculine women, feminine men and people who altered their bodies to match their gender expression more closely. In particular, two figures – the cinaedus and the gallus – provide examples of men whose effeminate behavior and modified anatomies were striking yet still integrated into Roman society.

    The cinaedus and the commander in chief

    In ancient Rome, some men who did not fit neatly within gender categories were called “cinaedi.” They were usually adult males singled out for their extreme effeminacy and nonnormative sexual desires.

    The cinaedus was already a recognizable figure in ancient Greece and was first mentioned in the fourth century B.C. by Plato. He says little more than that a cinaedus’ life was terrible, base and miserable. Later Roman authors provide more detail.

    Martial, a Roman poet writing in the first century A.D., for instance, describes a cinaedus’ dysfunctional penis as like a “soggy leather strap” in one epigram. In the same century, the Roman novelist Petronius has a cinaedus suggest that both he and his fellows have had their genitals removed.

    In a fable by Phaedrus, also written in the first century A.D., a barbarian is threatening the troops of the military leader, Pompey the Great. All are afraid to challenge this fierce opponent until a “cinaedus” volunteers to fight.

    The cinaedus is described as a soldier of great size but with a cracked voice and mincing walk. After pleading permission in a stereotypically lisping manner from Pompey the Great, his commander in chief, the cinaedus steps into battle. He quickly severs the barbarian’s head and, with army agog, is summarily rewarded by Pompey.

    In Phaedrus’ fable, the cinaedus is untrustworthy. He is described as having stolen valuables from Pompey early on in the tale and then later swears on oath that he hasn’t.

    Yet the moral of Phaedrus’ fable of the soldier-cinaedus is that such deceptive appearances and actions might actually be strategically successful in military matters. The cinaedus has an edge over Pompey’s other soldiers precisely due to his disarming effeminacy. In the tale, this doesn’t at all diminish his skills as a lethal fighter. Rather, the cinaedus’ effeminacy combined with his martial valor ultimately lead to the barbarian’s defeat.

    Trans priests and the safety of the Roman state

    The galli, another group that lived in the heart of the city of Rome, also blurred gender roles. They were males who had castrated their genitalia in dedication to the Great Mother goddess Cybele, who was their protector.

    As reported by several ancient sources, including Cicero and Livy, in 204 B.C. the Roman state consulted a set of prophetic scrolls called the Sibylline Oracles on how best to respond to the pressures it faced as a result of the Second Punic War – Rome’s prolonged conflict with Carthage and its fierce military general, Hannibal.

    The oracles’ answer – and Rome’s subsequent action – was to import a strange and foreign religious order from Asia Minor into the heart of Rome, where it would remain for the next several hundred years.

    The temple of Cybele was located on the Palatine Hill, next to several important shrines, monuments and later even the residence of the Emperor Augustus. As the poet Ovid tells us, each year during Cybele’s festival the galli would proceed through the streets of Rome carrying a statue of the goddess, while ululating wildly in time with the sound of wailing pipes, banging drums and crashing cymbals.

    More so than the figure of the cinaedus, ancient literary sources present the galli’s gender difference similarly to modern-day trans women, often using feminine pronouns when describing them.

    For instance, the poet Catullus details the origin story of the galli’s founder figure, Attis, who was Cybele’s mythical consort and chief priest. Notably, Catullus switches from using masculine adjectives to feminine ones at the very moment of Attis’ self-castration.

    Attis.

    Similarly, in his novel, “The Golden Ass,” the second century A.D. writer Apuleius has one gallus address his fellow devotees as “girls.”

    While several ancient sources mock these figures for their gender-nonconforming appearance and behaviors, it is nevertheless evident that the galli held a sacred place within the Roman state. They were viewed as being important to Rome’s continued safety and prominence.

    For example, Plutarch in his “Life of Marius” relates that a priest of the Great Mother came to Rome in 103 B.C. to convey an oracle that the Romans would be triumphant in war. Though believed by the Senate, this priest, Bataces, was mocked mercilessly in the plebian assembly. However, when the individual who had insulted Bataces swiftly died of a terrible fever, the plebians too gave this oracle and the goddess’s prophetic powers their backing.

    Today’s trans issues

    Behind Trump’s executive orders are two assertions: first, that transgender identity is a form of ideology: a modern invention created to justify deviance from one’s sex as assigned at birth; second, that transgender identity is both a form of disease and of dishonesty.

    The reissued military ban doubles down on the perceived dishonesty of trans folk, contrasting it with the ideals and principles needed for combat. The order states that the “adoption of a gender identity inconsistent with an individual’s sex conflicts with a soldier’s commitment to an honorable, truthful, and disciplined lifestyle.”

    Taking a long view of gender diversity across millennia has shown me that many individuals in antiquity certainly lived lives outside of the clear-cut formula that the Trump administration has stated, namely that “women are biologically female and men are biologically male.”

    Gender diversity is not simply a late 20th- or early 21st-century phenomenon. However, the fear that gender-diverse people are diseased and devious likewise arises in several ancient sources. In the classical world, these fears seem limited to the realms of satire and fantasy; in our current time, we are seeing these fears being harnessed for government policy.

    This article incorporates material from a story originally published on Aug. 1, 2017.

    Tom Sapsford is affiliated with the Lambda Classical Caucus.

    – ref. How Roman society integrated people who altered their bodies and defied gender norms – https://theconversation.com/how-roman-society-integrated-people-who-altered-their-bodies-and-defied-gender-norms-248726

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why including people with disabilities in the workforce and higher education benefits everyone

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Lauren Shallish, Associate Professor of Disability Studies in Education, Rutgers University – Newark

    The employment rate for people with disabilities is about half that of nondisabled people. Johner Images via Getty Images

    Whether it’s declaring that blindness prevents government employees from doing their jobs or suggesting that hiring workers with intellectual disabilities contributed to Federal Aviation Administration safety lapses, the Trump administration has repeatedly questioned whether people with disabilities belong in the workplace.

    This stance reflects widespread stigma and misconceptions about what people with disabilities can and do accomplish.

    Negative stereotypes and exclusionary practices persist despite the fact that people with disabilities are the largest minority group in the United States, representing nearly 30% of the population. Whether or not you identify as disabled, most people live or work in close proximity to others with a disability.

    For years I have researched how people with disabilities have been kept out of efforts to guarantee equal access for everybody, particularly in higher education. This exclusion is often due to unfounded beliefs about capacity, intellect and merit, and the false premise that disability inclusion requires lowering standards.

    However, studies demonstrate that including people with disabilities is good for everyone, not just disabled people. Schools and workplaces are more collaborative and responsive when people with disabilities are included at all levels of the organization. In other words, disability inclusion isn’t about charity; it’s about making organizations work better.

    The Americans with Disabilities Act, enacted in 1990, provides legal protections for people with disabilities in the workplace.
    kyotokushige/DigitalVision via Getty Images

    Rolling back protections

    President Donald Trump issued executive orders the day he took office for a second time that aimed at ending government and private-sector efforts to make U.S. workplaces and schools more diverse, equitable and inclusive. In addition to affecting LGBTQ+ communities and people of color, these measures could erode years of progress toward protecting the rights of people with disabilities to earn a living.

    Between 40 million and 80 million Americans identify as disabled. Even the higher end of this range underestimates the actual number of people with disabilities, because some individuals choose not to identify that way or even realize they qualify as such. That includes people with impairments from chemical and pesticide exposure, as well as many older people and those who are living with HIV and AIDS, to name some examples.

    Only 15% of people with disabilities are born with their impairment, so most individuals become disabled over their lifetime.

    Tracing historical precedents

    Blaming failures on people with disabilities and people of color echoes the harms embedded in eugenics, an attempt to scientifically prove genetic inferiority of disabled, LGBTQ+ Indigenous and Black people.

    Eugenics led to the institutionalization and forced sterilization of, and the coercive experimentation on, people with disabilities, immigrants and people of color across the U.S. Even the Supreme Court endorsed the concept in the early 20th century.

    These studies began to fade after World War II, but their legacy persists. Even today, forced sterilization continues to be lawful in U.S jurisdictions in 31 states and in Washington.

    Due to widespread activism and the advent of new legal protections, many states finally dismantled their eugenic policies in the late 1970s. But eugenics-era experiments provided foundations for contemporary medical research, standardized testing and segregated school placements.

    People with disabilities have far-reaching legal guarantees of civil rights and access today due to the Americans with Disabilities Act. The statute, which was enacted in 1990 and strengthened in 2008, provided protections in the workplace, educational settings, transportation and places of recreation and commerce, among others. It also guarded against negative perceptions of disability.

    For example, if an employer perceived someone as disabled and denied them consideration in the hiring process because of that, the candidate would be protected from discrimination under the ADA – whether or not they had a disability.

    While these advances are significant, many people with disabilities still do not have access to their basic civil rights. This is particularly true of Black people with disabilities, as they are disproportionately pushed out of school, disciplined more harshly, targeted for incarceration and marginalized in disability representation and research.

    Accommodations for people with disabilities enable them to contribute unique talents to classrooms and workplaces.
    Halfpoint Images via Getty Images

    Gaining workplace accommodations

    Critics of inclusion efforts sometimes wrongly argue that employing people with disabilities is too costly due to the accommodations they may require. But the Job Accommodation Network in the Department of Labor’s Office of Disability Employment Policy found in 2023 that nearly 60% of these accommodations cost nothing.

    What’s more, many tax incentives are available to cover these costs.

    Disability civil rights law does not mandate hiring people who are not qualified or lowering standards to include the disabled. The law requires that candidates meet the “essential functions” of the job in order to be hired.

    According to a 2024 Labor Department report, the employment rate for working-age people with disabilities was 38% compared with 75% for nondisabled people. Though there are countless reasons for this disparity, many people with disabilities can and want to work, but employers don’t give them the opportunity.

    Providing benefits for everyone

    Many accommodations designed for people with disabilities also benefit others.

    Captioning on videos and movies was originally meant to benefit the deaf community, but it also helps multilingual speakers and people who simply are trying to follow the dialogue. Similarly, visual or written instructions assist people with depression, Down syndrome or attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, but they can also make tasks more accessible for everyone, along with breaking assignments into smaller components.

    Sensory break rooms benefit people with autism and post-traumatic stress disorder, while also providing a reprieve in a noisy work environment and minimizing distractions. Remote work options can make it easier for people with chronic illnesses to be employed, and they similarly benefit others who may have caregiving responsibilities – helping attract and retain talented employees. Text-to-speech software provides people with cerebral palsy and nonspeaking individuals with options for communication, similar to options that many people already use on their phones.

    A large body of research demonstrates the broad benefits of making jobs and schools more accessible to people with disabilities, which is ultimately an advantage for everyone.

    Studies on diversity in educational and workplace settings also demonstrate positive outcomes. In a study of 10 public universities, researchers found that students who reported positive, informal interactions with diverse peers had higher scores on measures of more complex thinking, a concern for the public good and an interest in poverty issues, and were more likely to vote and develop strong leadership skills.

    In a national survey of human resources managers conducted in 2019, 92% of the respondents who were aware that one or more of their employees had a disability said those individuals performed the same or better than their peers who did not.

    Research published by the Harvard Business Review found many advantages to hiring people with disabilities.

    For one thing, people with disabilities can have unique insights that contribute to the workplace culture. The presence of employees with disabilities can make the environment of entire companies and organizations more collaborative. Earning a reputation for inclusiveness and social responsibility can improve customer relations and can give businesses an edge when they seek funding and recruit talented new employees.

    Ultimately, I believe it’s important to create conditions where anyone can thrive, including people with disabilities. Doing so benefits everyone.

    Lauren Shallish does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why including people with disabilities in the workforce and higher education benefits everyone – https://theconversation.com/why-including-people-with-disabilities-in-the-workforce-and-higher-education-benefits-everyone-249676

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: As Pennsylvania inches toward legalizing recreational cannabis, lawmakers propose selling it in state-owned dispensaries similar to state liquor stores

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Daniel J. Mallinson, Associate Professor of Public Policy and Administration, Penn State

    Advocates believe Pennsylvania and Hawaii may be the next fronts in recreational cannabis legalization. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

    After a long, largely successful march over 25 years to liberalize cannabis laws in the United States, the movement had a tough election in 2024.

    Legalization ballot measures failed in Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota. In Arkansas, votes on legalization were not even counted due to litigation over the measure. The only successful measures – passed in Nebraska – are also on hold due to litigation.

    Federally, many of President Donald Trump’s nominees in key posts at the Department of Health and Human Services, Department of Justice and Drug Enforcement Administration have made strong anti-cannabis statements. This may not bode well for the effort started by President Joe Biden to reschedule marijuana as a less dangerous drug.

    So, what is the future of cannabis legalization in the United States?

    As political scientist Lee Hannah and I argued in our 2024 book “Green Rush,” the states are central to the story of cannabis legalization in the United States.

    In fact, advocates are looking to places such as Pennsylvania and Hawaii in 2025 as the next fronts in recreational legalization.

    Let’s zoom in on Pennsylvania.

    Pennsylvania is a middling adopter

    Pennsylvania is following about the same trajectory with adult-use recreational legalization as it did with medical marijuana. It is not an innovator but also not a laggard.

    When Pennsylvania adopted medical marijuana in 2016, 23 states had already done so.

    The political environment is very different in 2025 than 2016, however, which raises the difficulty of passing a bill that makes recreational marijuana use legal, even in a state where legalization is popular.

    In 2016, Pennsylvania’s General Assembly was controlled completely by Republicans, and the governor was a Democrat. Now, the Democrats hold a single-seat majority in the House that erodes every time there is a vacancy. Republicans still control the Senate, and Democrat Josh Shapiro is the governor.

    A major key to medical cannabis legalization passing in 2016 was Republican state Sen. Mike Folmer’s advocacy within his caucus. Without a Republican champion, it may not have passed.

    For legalization of recreational cannabis, state Sen. Dan Laughlin has been the clear Republican champion. He has been working with Democratic state Sen. Sharif Street of Philadelphia to build support and find a policy design that works for Republicans and Democrats.

    But Republican Senate leadership has remained cool to the idea. Senate President Pro Tempore Kim Ward is not a supporter and has been pushing the governor to get more involved.

    “If (Shapiro) wants something done, he needs to lead on it,” Ward said. “He can’t throw an idea out there, which he did last year, and say, ‘Let the legislature figure it out, I’ll sign it.’”

    Expected revenues likely to fall short

    For his part, Shapiro has included projected revenues from legalization in his budget proposals since assuming office in 2023.

    This year, he projected an even greater first-year haul – US$536 million – if recreational cannabis is legalized. This estimate includes revenue from initial licensing fees.

    The assumptions going into these projections aren’t clear. And while cannabis legalization has been lucrative for state revenues in other places, revenues often fall short of what was projected during legalization debates.

    Importantly, Pennsylvania is now nearly surrounded by states with legal recreational cannabis. That includes New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Ohio, but not West Virginia.

    It is no secret that, in the words of Shapiro, “Pennsylvanians who want to buy cannabis are just driving across the border to one of our neighbors.”

    Research on how ideas and policies spread makes clear the intense pressure that comes as a state’s neighbors adopt a policy, especially one with major economic ramifications.

    But pressure does not determine the result. The internal politics of a state can still block a policy from being adopted.

    State-owned cannabis stores

    The biggest challenge for legalization in Pennsylvania will be navigating those internal political dynamics – especially finding a compromise that can be supported by both Democrats and Republicans.

    Public safety is often raised as a concern during legalization debates. To counter this point, Democrats in the state House have proposed selling legal cannabis in state-owned stores, just like how liquor and some wine is sold in Pennsylvania now.

    The Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board operates nearly 600 Fine Wine & Good Spirits stores across the state.
    Paul Weaver/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

    No other states do this, and it puts the state on potentially very slippery ground with the federal government, which still considers cannabis to be completely prohibited. State-run stores mean that states are providing a banned substance directly to citizens. That is a significant step further than creating an infrastructure to regulate private entities that are breaking federal law.

    Moreover, there has been a decades-long effort in Pennsylvania by conservatives to privatize the state liquor stores. It seems odd that Republicans would support using that model to create a recreational cannabis market.

    If privately owned but government-regulated dispensaries are used, there is significant debate among cannabis policy experts as to whether it is wise to give existing medical dispensaries first dibs on recreational licenses. Doing so allows states to open their recreational programs very quickly.

    The drawback, however, is that large, multistate operators such as Trulieve, which runs dispensaries in several states, are positioned to gain a significant share of the market. This is why the industry supports the approach to initial licensing. Legalization advocates such as Shaleen Title, however, are very concerned about the development of a “Big Cannabis” that resembles Big Tobacco, with oligopoly control by a few large companies.

    Social equity is another challenge facing recreational legalization that was not a major factor in medical. In short, social equity is about ensuring members of marginalized communities that were previously targets of the War on Drugs somehow benefit from the cannabis industry now that it is legal. While the issue was central to recreational legalization debates in neighboring New York and New Jersey, there’s been little public discussion of this particular facet of Pennsylvania’s proposed legalization plans.

    While a middling adopter of medical cannabis, Pennsylvania’s program also had important innovations in research and social equity that influenced legislators in other states. Whatever happens in the commonwealth around recreational cannabis may well do so again, especially as fewer states have the option of adopting recreational cannabis via the ballot.

    Finding a legislative solution to these thorny issues in a divided government could thus push legalization forward. Or the recent winds against legalization could stall the effort in Pennsylvania, at least for now.

    Read more of our stories about Philadelphia and Pennsylvania.

    Daniel J. Mallinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. As Pennsylvania inches toward legalizing recreational cannabis, lawmakers propose selling it in state-owned dispensaries similar to state liquor stores – https://theconversation.com/as-pennsylvania-inches-toward-legalizing-recreational-cannabis-lawmakers-propose-selling-it-in-state-owned-dispensaries-similar-to-state-liquor-stores-250368

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 3 ways Trump is acting like a king and bypassing the Constitution’s checks and balances on presidential authority

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By David Lopez, University Professor of Law, Rutgers University – Newark

    Donald Trump’s efforts to expand presidential power defy the Constitutional separation of powers. zimmytws/iStock via Getty Images

    I learned basic civics in my public school. But mostly, because it was more interesting, I also learned civics after school watching the animated series “Schoolhouse Rock,” often with my abuela – my grandmother – who took care of me.

    Back then, “Schoolhouse Rock” had a wonderful episode, “Three Ring Government.” In singing narration, the characters explained “about the government, and how it’s arranged, divided in three, like a three-ring circus.”

    Those three circles, all the same size, kept each other honest. For many in my generation, those three rings were our introduction to the idea of the checks and balances built into the U.S. government. They include the separation of powers among the legislative, judicial and executive branches.

    In short, we learned, Congress passes the laws, the president administers the laws, and the courts interpret the laws.

    This elegant but simple system stood in contrast to the nearly unshackled power of the British king, who ruled over the American colonies before independence. And it provided representation for “We the People,” because we vote for members of Congress.

    During its first month, the second Trump administration has pushed a new balance of these powers, granting the president expansive and far-reaching authority. These actions imperil the power of elected lawmakers in the House and Senate to pass legislation, oversee the federal government and exercise spending authority.

    Most U.S. legal scholars regarded these issues as fairly settled. Trump’s recent actions, however, have unsettled this understanding.

    Here are three examples of how the balance of power is being upset by Trump and his administration:

    The explanation of the separation of powers in the U.S. government in “Schoolhouse Rock.”

    Independent agencies

    On Jan. 28, 2025, President Donald Trump fired Gwynne Wilcox, a Democratic member of the National Labor Relations Board, three years before the end of her five-year term.

    The National Labor Relations Board, or NLRB, established in New Deal legislation in 1935, was designed to ensure industrial peace by protecting the rights of workers to organize and bargain collectively. Congress created the board as a bipartisan body to resolve allegations of unfair labor practices brought by workers or management.

    By design, the board operated independently from Cabinet-level departments. Congress sought to preserve this independence by ensuring that board members serve a fixed term and could be removed only for “neglect of duty or malfeasance in office, but for no other cause.”

    This independent structure – shared by other agencies such as the Securities Exchange Commission, the Federal Trade Commission and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission – aims to provide regulatory consistency, slightly removed from the political passions of the day.

    Some legal scholars have been percolating an argument that the Constitution requires the Supreme Court to limit those agencies’ Congressionally endowed independence in favor of more expansive presidential authority, even though the court decided this issue unanimously in 1935.

    Wilcox is suing the administration for its apparent violation of Congress’ statutory language by firing her.

    “Ms. Wilcox is the first Black woman to serve on the Board, the first Black woman to serve as its Chair, and – if the President’s action is allowed to stand – will also be the first member to be removed from office since the Board’s inception in 1935,” the lawsuit states.

    If this case makes it to the Supreme Court, and the court takes the unusual step of reversing itself, its ruling would imperil the independent structure, not just of this agency but of other agencies too.

    Asylum laws

    Congress created a comprehensive system of laws for processing the asylum claims of people who say they are fleeing persecution or torture to seek protection in the U.S.

    These laws allow applicants to show likelihood of harm if they could not stay in the U.S. They were originally adopted in response to humanitarian crises, including when Jews fleeing Nazi Germany were turned away by the U.S., among other countries.

    As part of Trump’s declaration, on his first day in back in office, that immigration is both a “national immigration emergency” and an “invasion” under Article IV, Section 4 of the Constitution, the president essentially shut down the asylum process at U.S. ports of entry. His proclamation canceled the appointments of those who had waited to pursue their claim under existing asylum procedures.

    In doing so, Trump ignored critical portions of laws passed by Congress. This move places asylum seekers already in the U.S. in danger of being deported to the countries where they say they face life-threatening persecution or torture.

    Congressional spending authority

    Protesters near the White House oppose President Donald Trump’s freeze on federal grants and loans on Jan. 28, 2025.
    Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

    Under the Constitution, Congress has the power to set spending amounts and priorities for the federal government. By law, the executive branch cannot spend what has not been appropriated – meaning approved by Congress – nor can it stop that spending.

    Shortly following the inauguration, however, Trump’s Office of Management and Budget ordered a pause of federal grants and loans to organizations and programs ranging from Head Start to farm subsidies.

    Almost immediately, several states, concerned about the loss of essential federal services, filed a lawsuit to halt the freeze. A federal court in Rhode Island sided with the plaintiffs and temporarily stayed the freeze.

    The judge rejected the Trump administration’s argument that it must “align Federal spending and action with the will of the American people as expressed through Presidential priorities,” calling it “constitutionally flawed.” And he concluded that the president could not act unilaterally under the Constitution.

    “Congress has not given the Executive limitless power to broadly and indefinitely pause all funds that it has expressly directed to specific recipients and purposes,” wrote the judge, John J. McConnell, Jr. “The Executive’s actions violate the separation of powers.”

    “Schoolhouse Rock” taught that one ring must respect the other coequal rings. What has happened under Trump is one ring expanding in size to swallow up much of another ring – that of Congress.

    ‘Kinglike’ powers?

    Several of the Trump administration’s recent actions appear designed to test the legal viability of an expansive, more “kinglike” view of presidential powers.

    Yet for the most part, Congress as an institution has mostly remained silent as the executive branch invades its sphere of authority.

    Instead, the courts have served as a check on his power by stalling, temporarily, more than a dozen of Trump’s presidential actions that surpass the executive powers permitted under various laws and the Constitution.

    Most of these stays are only temporary. They were issued based on the recognition that the immediate harm of unlawful presidential overreach would be difficult to roll back.

    In the end, the Supreme Court will likely decide the scope of presidential powers in the various contexts. If they rule in Trump’s favor, the U.S. government will become a one-ring circus run by a kinglike president – precisely what it was never meant to be.

    Gwynne Wilcox is a Rutgers Law grad and has spoken to our class.

    – ref. 3 ways Trump is acting like a king and bypassing the Constitution’s checks and balances on presidential authority – https://theconversation.com/3-ways-trump-is-acting-like-a-king-and-bypassing-the-constitutions-checks-and-balances-on-presidential-authority-249347

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The murder rate in Venezuela has fallen − but both Trump and Maduro are wrong about why

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Rebecca Hanson, Assistant Professor of Latin American Studies, Sociology and Criminology, University of Florida

    Members of government-backed militias take part in a march in Caracas, Venezuela, on Jan. 7, 2025. AP Photo/Matias Delacroix

    The body of former Venezuelan army officer Ronald Ojeda was found on Feb. 19, 2024, in a suitcase buried under 5 feet of concrete. Ojeda, accused by Venezuela of plotting against the government, had gone missing nine days earlier, when men dressed as police broke into his apartment in the Chilean capital of Santiago and dragged him away.

    Following a yearlong investigation, authorities in Chile have now pointed the finger at the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, claiming members carried out the assassination at the behest of that country’s president, Nicolás Maduro.

    It comes as the relationship between Maduro’s government and criminal gangs is under increased scrutiny, both among regional governments in Latin America and in the United States.

    Conservative media outlets in the U.S. and right-leaning groups such as the Heritage Foundation have accused Maduro of sending gang members into the U.S. to destabilize the country.

    President Donald Trump has even suggested that Maduro successfully reduced crime by exporting gang members to the U.S. “Crime is down in Venezuela by 67% because they’re taking their gangs and their criminals and depositing them very nicely into the United States,” he told supporters in April 2024.

    According to data from the Venezuelan Ministry of Health, shared with me by scholar of Venezuelan politics Dorothy Kronick, homicide rates have indeed come down in recent years. And this trend is confirmed by the Venezuelan Observatory of Violence.

    The fall in homicide rates has coincided with Maduro successfully consolidating his authoritarian rule in Venezuela. And explanations of the drop in crime tend to imply that it is the result of the government co-opting and controlling gangs. Some observers have even referred to Venezuela as a “narcostate,” suggesting that drug trafficking in the country is an organized venture between top officials and criminal groups.

    I have studied crime, violence and policing in Venezuela since 2011 and know that this narrative is at best oversimplistic, at worst outright mistruth. As I explore in my new book, “Policing the Revolution: The Transformation of Coercive Power and Venezuela’s Security Landscape During Chavismo,” the case of Venezuela is not one of government control over criminal groups. Rather, it is characterized by an unstable and volatile relationship between the government and multiple competing armed actors, including gangs and the police.

    Violent, but becoming less so

    Falling homicide rates should not mask the fact that Venezuela is still plagued by violence. Since the mid-2000s it has been ranked as one of the most violent countries in the world.

    Former President Hugo Chávez was never able to get a handle on crime, particularly violent crime, which increased exponentially under his government. The trend continued during Maduro’s first years in office after Chávez’s death in 2013.

    However, all available evidence suggests that Venezuela’s homicide rate has declined since reaching a peak in 2016 – by around 42%.

    But there’s no evidence this is because the government is “offshoring” criminals.

    Maduro’s own explanation for this decline portrays the government as handily controlling criminals by means of incredibly lethal police raids carried out between 2015 and 2019. In short, Maduro claims that the police have effectively “wiped out” criminal groups.

    Competing police forces …

    But rather than “wiping out” criminal organizations, the Maduro government has instead maintained volatile relationships with many armed groups, including gangs, nonstate paramilitary groups and even the country’s own police forces.

    These relationships have produced significant conflict and dysfunction within state institutions. This is clear when looking at institutions presumed to be synonymous with state control, such as the police.

    Chávez’s and Maduro’s governments put more police and soldiers in the streets. They created security institutions, such as the Policía Nacional Bolivariana, or Bolivarian National Police.

    However, rapid growth of the security apparatus, amid competing approaches, has generated more conflict than coordination.

    Police officers and police reformers I interviewed referred to state security policies and the changes they produced as akin to Frankenstein’s monster – an aberration rapidly outpacing the creator’s ability to control it.

    What they mean is the government had created new security institutions so quickly that it is unable to supervise and control them. As one former police officer and Chavista politician told me: “Our challenge now is how to manage the monster we created.”

    Members of the National Guard take part in an anti-gang security operation in Caracas on July 13, 2015.
    Federico Parra/AFP via Getty Images

    State policies have also generated significant distrust between the police and the government, and among different police forces.

    This distrust has even resulted in police forces coming to blows with each other in the streets on multiple occasions. On Feb. 19, 2020, a section of the Prados del Este highway in Caracas was shut down as officers from Venezuela’s National Police and the country’s investigative police brandished weapons, shoving, punching and wrestling each other to the ground.

    … cooperating gangs

    It is, as such, highly unlikely that falling homicide rates are the result of policing. Indeed, I interviewed over 200 police officers while conducting research for my book, and most believed that the government’s policing initiatives contributed to crime and violence rather than reducing it.

    A more plausible explanation for falling homicide figures is that Maduro’s policies have resulted in more consolidated relationships between criminal groups themselves.

    Maduro’s government has built relationships with gangs, but this doesn’t necessarily imply control over them. Since 2013 the government has negotiated pacts with some of the country’s largest gangs, including a gang confederation led by the infamous El Koki in Caracas and the Belén gang in the state of Miranda.

    The government agreed to tolerate illicit activities within certain areas and prohibit police from entering gang territory. In exchange, gangs agreed to reduce killings and other highly visible crimes such as kidnapping. As my book and previous research with Verónica Zubillaga, Francisco Sánchez and Leonard Gómez shows, these pacts allowed gangs to consolidate control over territory and illicit markets.

    Gangs also negotiated agreements among themselves in case the government pacts fell through. For example, they agreed to divide territory and markets to avoid future conflict and share resources such as weapons and ammunition. This produced less conflict between gangs and less disruption in illicit markets, resulting in fewer homicides.

    When pacts have ruptured in the past, the spectacularly violent confrontations that ensued between gangs and the police have shown gangs’ capacity to resist government intervention. Still, the overall effect of pacts and gang consolidation has been a reduction in homicides.

    As one neighbor living in gang territory put it: “Before, gangs confronted each other; they killed each other. Now they don’t. Now they are growing.”

    ‘Mother of all infuriations’

    Relationships between the government and various nonstate armed groups, including gangs, have generated enormous discontent within police forces.

    As one police officer explained in an interview, these pacts represented the “mother of all infuriations.” For many officers, the goverment’s pacts with other armed groups is tantamount to its sponsorship of criminal activities.

    And this discontent has produced sporadic violent confrontations. Even when government-gang pacts are in place, the government has been unable to keep police forces from entering gang territory and engaging in deadly shootouts.

    Certainly from the outside, it may look like Maduro’s government has co-opted gangs for political purposes. And with the U.S. government adding Tren de Aragua to its list of global terrorist groups, that could put Venezuela in danger of being labeled a “state sponsor of terrorism.”

    However, the Ojeda case in Chile should not be taken as evidence that stable and strong ties exist between Maduro’s government and criminal groups – at least not yet.

    Instead, authoritarian survival in Venezuela for now seems to depend on volatile relationships between multiple and competing armed groups that collaborate temporarily with the government when their diverse interests overlap.

    Rebecca Hanson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The murder rate in Venezuela has fallen − but both Trump and Maduro are wrong about why – https://theconversation.com/the-murder-rate-in-venezuela-has-fallen-but-both-trump-and-maduro-are-wrong-about-why-249230

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Elon Musk’s deep ties to – and admiration for – China could complicate Trump’s Beijing policy

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Linggong Kong, Ph.D. Student, Auburn University

    Elon Musk holds an outsized influence in the new Trump administration.

    As head of his Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, the world’s wealthiest man has enjoyed nearly unfettered political power in slashing and refashioning the federal government as he sees fit. And it has quickly become clear that he has the president’s ear on issues beyond that brief.

    But on one topic, Musk stands somewhat apart from others in the coterie of aides and advisers around Trump: China. In contrast to the many hawks in the new Trump cabinet who call for a hard-line approach on China, Musk is a striking outlier.

    As an expert on China-U.S. relations who has monitored Musk’s views on China, I don’t find his long history of espousing pro-Chinese sentiment surprising, given that he has sought throughout to get a business hold in the country.

    But those entanglements are worth scrutiny, given Musk’s role in the Trump administration at a time when one of America’s biggest foreign policy challenges is how to manage its relationship with Beijing.

    Musk’s journey to the East

    For years, Musk has had significant business interests in China, with Tesla’s Shanghai factory, Tesla Giga Shanghai, playing a crucial role in the company’s global operations.

    Since its opening in 2019, the Shanghai plant has surpassed Tesla’s Fremont, California, facility in both size and productivity, now accounting for more than half of the company’s global deliveries and a majority of its profits. Moreover, nearly 40% of Tesla’s battery supply chain relies on Chinese companies, and these partnerships continue to expand.

    Elon Musk walks with Shanghai Mayor Ying Yong during the groundbreaking ceremony for a Tesla factory in Shanghai on Jan. 7, 2019.
    STR/AFP via Getty Images

    Notably, Tesla was the first foreign automaker permitted to establish operations in China without a local partner, following a change in ownership regulations. The Shanghai factory was constructed with the support of US$1.4 billion in loans from Chinese state-owned banks, granted at favorable interest rates.

    Between 2019 and 2023, the Shanghai government also provided Tesla with a reduced corporate tax rate of 15% – 10 percentage points lower than the standard rate.

    The cost advantages of manufacturing in Shanghai, which include lower production and labor expenses, have further cemented Tesla’s reliance on the Chinese market.

    Given that Musk’s wealth is largely tied to Tesla stock, his financial standing is increasingly dependent on the company’s fortunes in China, making any potential disengagement from the country both economically and strategically challenging.

    Tesla’s continued investment in China underscores this dependency. On Feb. 11, 2025, the company opened its second factory in Shanghai — a $200 million plant that is set to produce 10,000 megapack batteries annually. It’s the company’s first megapack battery factory outside the U.S..

    This investment deepens Tesla’s presence in China amid a new wave of U.S.-China trade tensions. On Feb. 1, the Trump administration imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, prompting Beijing’s retaliation with tariffs on American coal, liquefied natural gas, agricultural equipment and crude oil.

    A Chinese fan

    It remains unclear to what extent Musk’s financial interests in China will translate to real influence over the Trump administration’s policy toward Beijing. But Musk’s long history of pro-China remarks suggests the direction he wants the administration to move.

    During his visit to Beijing in April 2024, Musk praised the country, noting also: “I also have a lot of fans in China – well, the feeling is mutual.”

    His admiration appears to hinge in part on how he views business and labor practices in China. In that vein, Musk has criticized American workers as lazy and has faced U.S. labor law disputes, while simultaneously praising Chinese workers for “burning the 3 a.m. oil” under an intensely repressive labor system.

    In numerous posts on the social media platform X, formerly Twitter, which he owns, Musk has also praised China’s infrastructure and high-speed rail system, lauded its space program, applauded its leadership in global green energy initiatives and urged his followers to visit the country.

    Musk has also opposed U.S. efforts to decouple from China, describing the countries’ economies as “conjoined twins,” despite a sizable part of the foreign policy establishment in the West viewing decreased dependency on China as necessary for security interests amid rising geopolitical tensions.

    On the issue of Taiwan, the most dangerous flashpoint in U.S.-China relations, Musk has compared Taiwan to Hawaii, arguing that it is an integral part of China and noting that the U.S. Pacific Fleet has prevented mainland China from achieving reunification by force.

    Musk further suggested that the Taiwan dispute could be resolved by allowing China to establish Taiwan as a special administrative zone, similar to Hong Kong.

    His remarks were shared and welcomed by China’s then-ambassador to the U.S., who, in a post on X, emphasized China’s so-called peaceful unification strategy and advocated for the “one country, two systems” model.

    Trump’s back-channel envoy?

    The big question going forward is how Musk’s financial stakes in, and stated admiration for, China will translate into attempts to influence the U.S. administration’s China policy, particularly given Musk’s unconventional advisory role and the strong faction of anti-China hawks in Trumpworld.

    Given Musk’s approach to China, it’s hard to see him not trying to use his influence with the president to push for somewhat warmer relations with Beijing.

    If such counsel were heeded, it’s easy to envision Musk leveraging his deep ties to China, particularly his close personal relationship with China’s current second-ranking official, Premier Li Qiang, who was the Shanghai party chief when Tesla’s factory was built. In the scenario, Donald Trump could tap Musk as a back channel for diplomacy to ease U.S.-China tensions and facilitate bilateral cooperation when needed.

    To this point, it was, perhaps, telling that it was Musk who met with China President Xi Jinping’s envoy to Trump’s inauguration, Vice President Han Zheng, on the eve of the event.

    But it’s far from certain that Trump wants that diplomatic role for Musk, or that other voices won’t win out with regard to Beijing. In his first term, Trump launched an unprecedented trade war and tech blockade against China, fundamentally reshaping U.S.-China relations and pushing the U.S. toward something of a bipartisan consensus to counter Beijing that has existed for several years.

    Trump’s tariff moves and second-term picks for top trade and commerce roles, like Peter Navarro and Jamieson Greer — who played key roles in the trade war against China during the president’s first term — suggest that Trump’s commitment to further decoupling from China remains strong.

    Furthermore, Musk’s business interests and personal wealth tied to China could leave him vulnerable to Chinese influence. By leaning on Musk’s close ties with Trump, China could use his dependence on the Chinese market as a bargaining chip to pressure Trump into making concessions on issues of major strategic importance to Beijing.

    China has a history of coercing foreign companies reliant on its market into making compromises on matters concerning its national interests. For instance, Apple removed virtual private network apps from its app store in China at the government’s request. Similarly, Tesla could face comparable pressure in the future if Beijing wants to use Musk as a cudgel to influence policy in the Trump administration. Notably, as the head of DOGE, with access to sensitive data from multiple agencies, Musk could find himself caught between U.S. security scrutiny and China’s strategic targeting.

    So long as Musk retains the influence with Trump that he holds now, it’s conceivable that his pro-China sentiments will translate into attempts to influence government policy. Yet even if this is to be the case, whether those efforts succeed will depend on the president and his other advisers, many of whom are seeking an aggressive front against Beijing and are likely to view Musk as an impediment rather than ally in that fight to come.

    Linggong Kong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Elon Musk’s deep ties to – and admiration for – China could complicate Trump’s Beijing policy – https://theconversation.com/how-elon-musks-deep-ties-to-and-admiration-for-china-could-complicate-trumps-beijing-policy-249988

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why religion is fundamental to addressing climate change

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Hanane Benadi, Research Officer, Religion and Global Society, London School of Economics and Political Science

    “There is no time for imagination, religious or otherwise. We need to act now!” an irritated scientist told me during a workshop on climate change and religion in 2024. Contrary to the tone of his comment, this scientist was not dismissing religion as being marginal to tackling climate change, but his underlying assumption rang clear: religion, while undoubtedly a necessary part of the solution, is only useful if it works alongside rational science.

    Research by me and my colleagues suggests that framing religion and science as totally separate entities is unhelpful in advancing a global response to climate change.

    In 2022 and 2023, I spent four months conducting fieldwork in Egypt, living and interacting with Muslim and Christian communities in Cairo and Alexandria. As a salient reminder of the ongoing climate crisis, my research took place over the summer, when temperatures reached more than 45°C.

    These heatwaves were a part of everyday discussions, but I didn’t hear only scientific jargon used to refer to these phenomena. Often, religion was the language used to make sense of the heat.

    As an Anglican priest in Alexandria told me, members of his congregation understood these heatwaves as manifestations of climate change, but at the same time asked him: “What is God is trying to tell us? Is this a sign of his anger? What should we do?” In other words, while scientific knowledge was used to explain the extreme heat, religion gave it meaning.

    Building a global response to the climate crisis requires us to learn about the many ways people make sense of climate change and learn to live with its consequences. And for most of the world’s population, a purely scientific framing is unhelpful.

    Science v religion?

    The long-perceived tension between religion and science seems to be reappearing today as we confront climate change. The scientist’s reaction to my work is one example of this, which left me wondering: what role is religion playing in tackling climate change globally? And how often is it framed as a field outside of science?

    Unfortunately, the approach adopted on the global climate stage seems to perpetuate a hierarchy of knowledge that implies that science trumps social and cultural influences such as religion and ethics. It is telling that the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the preeminent global body on climate policy, still relies heavily on hard science in presenting its findings, despite efforts in its latest reports to highlight the role of social sciences and humanities, including religion, can play.

    With my team from the LSE Religion and Global Society research unit, I ran a climate change and religion workshop in Cairo with Muslim and Christian female and male faith leaders. Many of the 30 participants explained they felt frustrated that the climate science lens dominates.

    One member of a faith-based organisation told me during an interview after the workshop that: “We are often approached by western organisations and research institutions to collaborate. However, when we ask about the nature of these collaborations, it is often reduced to our logo and a couple of statements that tell people that they should care about climate change.”

    Rather than taking religion seriously on its own terms, climate science often shapes what kind of role religion should play in communicating climate change. This is a problem.

    Science meets religion

    Our current work with female scientists in Egypt is teaching us that in many non-western countries, such as Egypt, the religious and the scientific cannot be as easily untangled as some might like to think.

    I asked an Egyptian scientist who has been working on water management for the last 30 years how she sees the future of water in her country. She began her response with a verse from the Quran before turning to a scientific explanation of what that entails.

    While much of her work is informed by scientific models of reason that underpin the Egyptian state’s nationalist development projects, she can hold together scientific and religious ethical modes of reasoning. Bringing an understanding of this overlap to international climate policy is critical for creating global solidarity around this issue.

    Fortunately, things are changing. Through initiatives such as the UN Environment Programme’s Faith for Earth Coalition and the faith pavilion at recent UN climate summits, religious groups are becoming more prevalent and active on the global climate stage.

    But efforts to seek collaborations between scientists and faith communities are not good enough. We need to resist the urge to see religion as a mere vehicle for convincing most of the global population for whom religion gives meaning to life. The only way we can do that is for scientists and faith leaders to start laying the groundwork for new ways of thinking together.

    As Russian author Leo Tolstoy once wrote, “Science is meaningless because it has no answer to the only questions that matter to us: ‘What should we do and how shall we live?‘” The climate crisis demands new ways of thinking, new ways of perceiving reality, and religion is fundamental to achieving that.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Hanane Benadi receives funding from British Academy.

    Hanane Benadi is a Research Officer at the London School of Economics

    – ref. Why religion is fundamental to addressing climate change – https://theconversation.com/why-religion-is-fundamental-to-addressing-climate-change-248074

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sustainability ideals are often crushed by corporate demands. Here’s how businesses can let them flourish

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sanne Frandsen, Associate Professor in Organization, Lund University

    Urbanscape/Shutterstock

    A “calling” in the context of work might be characterised by a strong sense of purpose and a motivation beyond just being paid at the end of the month. It’s mostly associated with occupations like healthcare workers, teachers or nonprofit staff, for example. We might not immediately think of sustainability managers – employed by companies to reduce their environmental impact – as following a calling in the same sense.

    As researchers, however, we have found that sustainability and corporate social responsibility (CSR) managers are also drawn to their work by a calling to serve as agents for social change – even though their roles are corporate ones.

    The social aspirations of sustainability managers are key to the success of corporations’ CSR and sustainability work. However, these aspirations often clash with the corporate reality within the organisation.

    Our research is based on 57 sustainability managers in international companies in Sweden across various industries and career levels. We found that sustainability managers chose their careers in order to live out their strong socio-environmental ambitions.

    Yet keeping that motivation is far from easy. According to sustainability managers themselves, their employers fail to live up to their social aspirations. They are pushed to prioritise corporate goals over social good, and their visions are reduced to compliance only. Their innovative ideas can fade in the struggle to be heard and gain support within the organisation.

    We found that as sustainability managers gain more seniority within the corporation, they lose their socio-environmental purpose and instead start to focus on the bottom-line results of sustainability initiatives. This means they become less ambitious with regard to sustainability initiatives – and more concerned with the profit-driven benefits of sustainability.

    For example, a senior sustainability manager among our cohort who was employed at a company facing accusations of human rights violations focused more on improving the sustainability report and how she could communicate the idea that “CSR makes sense for business”.

    Though sustainability managers in the early stages of their careers are committed to radical change, their voices are seldom heard by the management or their colleagues. They struggle with feelings of social exclusion and meaninglessness, as their aspirations crumble.

    This can be emotionally draining and challenging to their identity, ultimately leading them to adopt more commercial aspirations instead. The sustainability managers find they can do little to mobilise the organisation to support their case for doing good.

    Shifting to the corporate mindset

    During their mid-careers, sustainability managers seemed more able to sell their social aspirations within the corporation. But their calling for social and environmental change becomes “corporatised” and a scaled-back version of their original vision. The shift to a business mindset seems important to get others in the organisation to take them seriously. It’s also important for the sustainability managers themselves, as it increases their sense of belonging within the organisation.

    But the initial drive towards societal change begins to dissipate. One sustainability manager explained that they had been “moulded” to think with more of a business mindset. “The first thing is that everything has to have business value,” they said.

    As sustainability managers in the later stages of their careers gain more power within their organisation, they also express more pride when they talk about their achievements. These are often linked to increased ranking or branding value – for example featuring on sustainability indices or securing media coverage of the company’s sustainability credentials.

    The social motivation for sustainability work, however, is sidelined. Sustainability managers say their work is meaningful and in line with their purpose. But the purpose is now almost exclusively driven more by corporate benefits.

    Businesses should take care not to crush the ambitions of early-career sustainability staff in the corporate machine.
    Iryna Inshyna/Shutterstock

    Are sustainability managers useless, then? Far from it. But our research shows how the very system that hires them to drive change often stifles their social and environmental aspirations.

    As such, companies should value and respond to sustainability managers’ social aspirations to ensure that they maintain the spirit, motivation, and passion for change. This, after all, is what lies at the heart of sustainability and CSR work.

    Our research underscores a critical point. If corporations want sustainability managers to drive meaningful and lasting change, they must support their calling for social impact. This includes giving them a voice and authority, for example, by including them in the executive team.

    Sustainability managers should not be relegated to work only on compliance tasks, but actively encouraged to contribute to the corporate strategy. A culture of openness that welcomes critical perspectives should embrace sustainability managers challenging the status quo. Without this, the drive for greener and more equitable corporate practices risks fading away.

    Sanne Frandsen receives funding from Handelsbankens Forskningstiftelser and the Swedish Research Council.

    Enrico Fontana and Mette Morsing do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sustainability ideals are often crushed by corporate demands. Here’s how businesses can let them flourish – https://theconversation.com/sustainability-ideals-are-often-crushed-by-corporate-demands-heres-how-businesses-can-let-them-flourish-249556

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Asteroid has a very small chance of hitting Earth in 2032, but a collision could devastate a city

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Maggie Lieu, Research Fellow, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nottingham

    In December 2024, astronomers in Chile spotted a new asteroid streaking through the sky, which they named 2024 YR4. What’s significant about this 100m-wide space rock is that it has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032.

    Since its discovery, the asteroid’s probability of an impact with our planet has gone all over the place. At one point, the risk rose as high as 3.1%. This may not sound like a lot, until you realise that that is a 1 in 32 chance of collision.

    As of February 21 2024, the European Space Agency’s (Esa) Near Earth Object Centre predicts the collision probability to be just 0.16%, which is a 1 in 625 chance – a huge difference. So why is there such a huge variability in these predictions? And is there really a need to be concerned?

    Asteroids are left over remnants from the formation of the solar system, mostly rock, but also metallic, or icy bodies that tend to live in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.

    Space agencies like Nasa and Esa independently monitor and track over 37,000 near Earth asteroids (NEAs). These NEAs are those that come within 1.3 astronomical units distance of Earth, where 1 astronomical unit is the average distance between the Earth and Sun. Around 1,700 objects are considered to have an elevated risk because they make a relatively close approach to Earth at some point in the future. They are said to have a non-zero probability of colliding with our planet.

    Now it’s estimated that 44,000 kg of space rock hits our planet every year, but most of it is dust or sand grain sized particles that will burn up in the atmosphere, creating the beautiful streaks in the sky that we know as shooting stars.

    Rarely do these objects make it to the Earth intact as a meteorite and it’s even rarer to have a cataclysmic impact, like the 10km wide object that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. The last major asteroid event in recent history was the 18m wide meteorite that hit Chelyabinsk in Russia in 2013.

    The fireball turned night into day and released an estimated 500 kilotons of energy (equivalent to 500,000 tonnes of TNT) as it explosively broke apart in our atmosphere. Around 1,500 people were injured – many through the sonic waves shattering windows.

    Current estimates for 2024 YR4 suggest it to be up to 100m in size. It is capable of releasing about 7.8 Megatons of energy (equivalent to 7.8 million tonnes of TNT explosive), which is much more than Chelyabinsk. If such an asteroid were to hit the centre of London you could expect over 2 million fatalities. But the effects would be felt over a larger area.

    The impact would have a “thermal radiation radius” of 26 km. Within this radius, the heat from the impact would be so intense it would cause third degree burns. So despite the small probabilities, there’s no question that this asteroid should be monitored and tracked closely.

    Nasa has also reported a very small chance that 2024 YR4 could collide with the Moon instead. This would pose no threat to people on Earth, but would generate a sizeable impact crater on our planet’s only natural satellite.

    No simple answers

    Tracking an asteroid turns out to be more complex than you might think. Unlike stars and galaxies, asteroids don’t emit light so are notoriously difficult to spot. This faintness likely contributed to why 2024 YR4 4 eluded detection up until so recently.

    In addition, the shape of the asteroid, and its albedo – which measures how reflective the asteroid is – is still highly uncertain, further complicating the prediction of its future path. The albedo of the asteroid not only tells us about the composition of the asteroid, but can inform us of interactions with the Sun.

    A 10 metre-wide asteroid broke up over Chelyabinsk, Russia, in 2013.

    A darker asteroid will absorb more light, heating up any gases within the asteroid. When released, these gases can act like jet thrusters, altering the trajectory of the asteroid. A more reflective asteroid, might incur more radiation pressure from the Sun. This pressure can actually push it in another direction to the one it was previously going in.

    The current estimates of YR4’s albedo are between 0.05 – 0.25, with 0 being completely matte, and 1 being completely reflective, so the margin of uncertainty is wide. As you might expect, the shape of the asteroid will also affect the direction in which these forces act and the resulting trajectory of the object.

    Current trajectory estimates assume a spherical asteroid, with a typical density for an S-type asteroid (a common type of rocky asteroid). The asteroid 2024 YR 4 has very little chance of being spherical (that shape tends to be seen in bigger objects with stronger gravity) and we don’t know what exactly it’s made from. Future observations, potentially including those from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), aim to refine our understanding of the asteroid’s shape.

    Comet 67P up close, in an image taken by the Rosetta spacecraft.
    ESA/Rosetta/NavCam – CC BY-SA IGO 3.0, CC BY-SA

    However, past discrepancies between predictions of the comet 67P, as seen by the Hubble telescope from far away, versus its actual shape captured by the Rosetta spacecraft, which explored it up close, demonstrate the limitations of our predictions.

    Spectral imaging (which measures different colours of light to give an indication of composition) will hopefully allow us to better understand what type of material is on the surface of the asteroid and whether there could be volatile gases hiding beneath it that could affect its future path.

    Given that the projected Earth impact is a mere seven years away, the window for sending a spacecraft to try and divert it away from our planet, as successfully demonstrated by Nasa’s Dart mission in 2022, is rapidly closing. While other options such as detonating a nuclear weapon near the asteroid to deflect its path remain theoretically possible, they come with significant risks and ethical considerations. For instance, instead of diverting the asteroid, a nuclear explosion could break it into two or more pieces, which could then collide with Earth in distinct locations.

    There is a possibility that the asteroid could be nudged off course by collisions with other space rocks. It’s also likely that, if it does collide with Earth, it won’t hit a populated region, since the majority of our planet is uninhabited. However, it should be possible to evacuate people should it threaten a populated area.

    For now, the best thing we can do is track the asteroid with more observations, refining its trajectory, properties and impact probability estimates as more data becomes available. As we have already seen over the past few days, the predictions are likely to continue changing.

    Maggie Lieu has received funding from STFC.

    – ref. Asteroid has a very small chance of hitting Earth in 2032, but a collision could devastate a city – https://theconversation.com/asteroid-has-a-very-small-chance-of-hitting-earth-in-2032-but-a-collision-could-devastate-a-city-250598

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine war: Trump is not trying to appease Putin – he has a vision of a new US-China-Russia order

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

    There has been much and justified focus on the implications of a likely deal between US president Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and the overwhelmingly negative consequences this will have for Ukraine and Europe. But if Trump and Putin make a deal, there is much more at stake than Ukraine’s future borders and Europe’s relationship with the US.

    As we are nearing the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s future is more in doubt than it has ever been since February 2022. For once, analogies to Munich in 1938 are sadly appropriate. This is not because of a mistaken belief that Putin can be appeased, but rather because great powers, once again, make decisions on the fate of weaker states and without them in the room.

    Similar to the pressure that Czechoslovakia experienced from both Germany and its supposed allies France and Britain in 1938, Ukraine is now under pressure from Russia on the battlefield and the US both diplomatically and economically. Trump and his team are pushing hard for Ukraine to make territorial concessions to Russia and accept that some 20% of Ukrainian lands under Russia’s illegal occupation are lost. In addition, Trump demands that Ukraine compensate the United States for past military support by handing over half of its mineral and rare earth resources.

    The American refusal to provide tangible security guarantees not only for Ukraine but also for allied Nato troops if they were deployed to Ukraine as part of a ceasefire or peace agreement smacks of the Munich analogy. Not only did France and Britain at the time push Czechoslovakia to cede the ethnic German-majority Sudetenland to Nazi Germany. They also did nothing when Poland and Hungary also seized parts of the country. And they failed to respond when Hitler – a mere six months after the Munich agreement – broke up what was left of Czechoslovakia by creating a Slovak puppet state and occupying the remaining Czech lands.

    There is every indication that Putin is unlikely to stop in or with Ukraine. And it is worth remembering that the second world war started 11 months after Neville Chamberlain thought he had secured “peace in our time”.

    The Munich analogy may not carry that far, however. Trump is not trying to appease Putin because he thinks, as Chamberlain and Daladier did in 1938, that he has weaker cards than Putin. What seems to drive Trump is a more simplistic view of the world in which great powers carve out spheres of influence in which they do not interfere.

    The state of the conflict in Ukraine, February 20 2025.
    Institute for the Study of War

    The problem for Ukraine and Europe in such a world order is that Ukraine is certainly not considered by anyone in Trump’s team as part of an American zone of influence, and Europe is at best a peripheral part of it.

    Trump-eye lens on the world

    For Trump, this isn’t really about Ukraine or Europe but about re-ordering the international system in a way that fits his 19th-century view of the world in which the US lives in splendid isolation and virtually unchallenged in the western hemisphere. In this world view, Ukraine is the symbol of what was wrong with the old order. Echoing the isolationism of Henry Cabot, Trump’s view is that the US has involved itself into too many different foreign adventures where none of its vital interests were at stake.

    Echoing Putin’s talking points, the war against Ukraine no longer is an unjustified aggression but was, as Trump has now declared, Kyiv’s fault. Ukraine has become the ultimate test that the liberal international order failed to pass.

    The war against Ukraine clearly is a symbol of the failure of the liberal international order, but hardly its sole cause. In the hands of Trump and Putin it has become the tool to deal it a final blow. But while the US and Russia, in their current political configurations, may have found it easy to bury the existing order, they will find it much harder to create a new one.

    The push-back from Ukraine and key European countries may seem inconsequential for now, but even without the US, the EU and Nato have strong institutional roots and deep pockets. For all the justified criticism of the mostly aspirational responses from Europe so far, the continent is built on politically and economically far stronger foundations than Russia and the overwhelming majority of its people have no desire to emulate the living conditions in Putin’s want-to-be empire.

    Nor will Trump and Putin be able to rule the world without China. A deal between them may be Trump’s idea of driving a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, but this is unlikely to work given Russia’s dependence on China and China’s rivalry with the US.

    If Trump makes a deal with Xi as well, for example over Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea, let alone over Taiwan, all he would achieve is further retrenchment of the US to the western hemisphere. This would leave Putin and Xi to pursue their own, existing deal of a no-limits partnership unimpeded by an American-led counter-weight.

    From the perspective of what remains of the liberal international order and its proponents, a Putin-Xi deal, too, has an eerie parallel in history – the short-lived Hitler-Stalin pact of 1939. Only this time, there is little to suggest that the Putin-Xi alliance will break down as quickly.

    Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

    – ref. Ukraine war: Trump is not trying to appease Putin – he has a vision of a new US-China-Russia order – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-trump-is-not-trying-to-appease-putin-he-has-a-vision-of-a-new-us-china-russia-order-249979

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: South Africa’s ‘working for water’ programme is meant to lead to skills and jobs: why it’s failing

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Sinazo Ntsonge, PhD Graduate, Department of Economics and Economic History, Rhodes University, Rhodes University

    South Africa’s Expanded Public Works Programme is part of its social safety net. It complements the country’s social grants system, which has over 28 million recipients.

    The public works programme helps fill a gap for people who fall outside the grant system, especially those who need work experience and skills training if they’re to get a job. These include unemployed young people, women and people with disabilities.

    One of the programmes under its umbrella is the Working for Water programme, which was launched in 1995. It was intended to control invasive alien plants so as to conserve water resources, and provide short-term employment and training for people not covered by the grants safety net.

    Since its inception, the programme, alongside other interventions targeted at the environment, has created over 200,000 person years of employment – the total number of days people were afforded work. More than half of these employment opportunities have been held by women, and more than 60% by young people under the age of 35 years.

    In my PhD research, I examined one of its flagship projects to assess its impact on the long-term livelihoods of beneficiaries. My aim was to determine whether the programme was achieving its intended role as a social protection mechanism.

    I found that the way the project was designed limited its potential to foster long-term livelihoods for participants. Long-term livelihoods are defined as the ability to achieve lasting economic stability and growth beyond the scope of the project itself.

    One key issue was the inconsistency in the number of workdays participants were assigned, as well as the quality and availability of the skills training they received. Specifically, the training lacked regularity and did not always align with market demands. It left participants without the practical, job-ready skills needed for sustained employment.

    This problem was compounded by budget cuts.

    Based on my findings, I propose key changes to improve the programme’s effectiveness: the provision of consistent funding and training that’s aligned to labour market needs.

    The project

    The project I looked at tackles the clearing of invasive Prosopis mesquite trees in the Northern Cape. This has involved clearing nearly 314,580 hectares of invaded land in that province.

    Spanning from 2004 to 2018, the project supported over 9,000 beneficiaries across three phases. In phase I (2004–2008), 2,411 people participated; in phase II (2009–2013), 2,861; and in phase III (2014–2018), 3,756.

    The project targeted youth, women and people with disabilities. Beneficiaries were spread across various age groups: 36–64 years in phase I, 22–35 and 36–64 years in phase II, and 18–35 years in phase III.

    Participants were paid monthly stipends which ranged from R2,900 to R5,000, which is equivalent to approximately US$157 to US$271 – higher than most South African social grants. For comparison, the disability social grant is R2,180 (US$118), the older person’s grant is R2,200 (US$119), the foster child grant is R1,180 (US$64), and the child support grant is R530 (US$28).

    I developed an evaluation framework to assess the programme’s impact on the long-term livelihoods of beneficiaries.

    The study was carried out over 14 days in 2020, coinciding with the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. With health restrictions in place, the research had to pivot from planned in-person interviews and focus groups to virtual interviews with key stakeholders and an online survey of beneficiaries. The survey gathered data from 33 beneficiaries, while interviews provided valuable insights from project managers overseeing the clearing initiative.

    The gaps

    I found that the project faced a number of challenges.

    Firstly, there was inconsistency in the number of workdays participants were assigned. Given that public works projects aim to alleviate poverty – primarily through stipends – budget cuts forced managers to focus on retaining beneficiaries to ensure they could at least feed themselves. This often meant reducing the number of workdays (from the required 230 days to just 100 days) and scaling back skills training.

    Secondly, there were shortcomings in the quality and availability of the skills training they received. Many of the courses offered were short-term or specific to invasive plant clearing, including herbicide application, brush cutter operation and firefighting. This meant it wasn’t relevant to the labour market.

    In the Northern Cape, the economy hinges on industries like mining, agriculture, manufacturing and construction. In mining, for example, knowledge of machinery operation, safety protocols and mine supervision is vital. Agriculture needs workers skilled in sustainable farming, irrigation techniques and equipment operation. Manufacturing needs expertise in production line management, welding and machinery operation. Construction projects require workers proficient in project management, site safety and heavy machinery operation.

    Given the region’s tourism potential, customer service and tour guiding are valuable. Finally, fostering entrepreneurship through business management and financial literacy can empower individuals to create small businesses. In addition, soft skills such as communication, leadership and teamwork are essential across all sectors for long-term employability.

    Many beneficiaries reported cycling through the Prosopis mesquite clearing project repeatedly, without gaining the work experience or skills needed to move into more sustainable jobs in the wider labour market.

    Thirdly, budget cuts restricted the availability of resources for both training and work opportunities.

    As a result, the initiative fell short of providing participants with the tools necessary for long-term economic success. Their prospects were limited after the project’s conclusion.

    Given the findings of my research study, the programme requires a shift in focus and changes need to be made.

    What needs to be done

    Firstly, funding for projects needs to be consistent. Secondly, training needs to be aligned with labour market needs. And thirdly, there needs to be a structured system for tracking long-term outcomes on the beneficiaries’ livelihoods following their participation.

    Without a system to track outcomes, it’s difficult to assess whether the project is equipping participants with skills for employment in the sectors that are driving the local economy.

    With these changes the programme can transition from a short-term employment solution to a sustainable intervention that equips beneficiaries with useful, transferable skills that are applicable to a range of sectors. This would ultimately improve their prospects for stable employment and long-term economic security, provided those jobs are available.

    Sinazo Ntsonge received funding from the NRM WfW programme, which was administered by the Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biology (CIB) at Stellenbosch University.

    – ref. South Africa’s ‘working for water’ programme is meant to lead to skills and jobs: why it’s failing – https://theconversation.com/south-africas-working-for-water-programme-is-meant-to-lead-to-skills-and-jobs-why-its-failing-248694

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Who is Friedrich Merz, the man now most likely to lead Germany? Eight things to know

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ed Turner, Reader in Politics, Co-Director, Aston Centre for Europe, Aston University

    With the social democrat Olaf Scholz conceding defeat to the centre right in Germany’s election, the man most likely to be named the next chancellor will be Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz.

    The CDU has emerged as the largest party with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) second – its best-ever result in a federal election.

    Merz will have to assemble a coalition government, which will involve some tough negotiations, but Europe’s leaders can be expected to treat him as a “chancellor in waiting”. Here are eight things to know about the man about to take one of the most important political positions in Europe.

    1. He’s taking his party further to the right

    The first thing you need to know about Merz is that he and former chancellor Angela Merkel were longstanding rivals and sparring partners. Back in the early 2000s, after Merkel became leader of the CDU, she ousted Merz from his role as the party’s parliamentary leader, taking on the role herself.

    Merkel never made Merz a minister, and indeed he decided not to run for parliament again in 2009, having already begun to focus on his various private sector interests (as a lawyer but also a company board member). Merz was critical of Merkel’s decision to shift the CDU to the centre ground and was concerned it would open up space for the AfD to move into.



    Read more:
    What is the AfD? Germany’s far-right party, explained

    When Merz did become party leader in 2022, he began rewriting of the party’s programme in a much more conservative direction.

    2. He’s an economic liberal

    Merz takes a very different economic view to Merkel, at least in the latter years of her chancellorship. In 2003, he argued for a radical simplification of Germany’s tax rules such that a tax return could be calculated on the back of a beer mat.

    His party’s 2025 manifesto argued for deregulation and tax cuts to boost Germany’s sluggish growth. Part of this, Merz argued, should be funded by more conditionality being applied to welfare recipients, with a complete stop on benefits for recipients who refused to take any form of work on. In 2024, he also said he’d do “everything” to stop the EU taking on common debt.

    3. He’s a social conservative

    In his younger years, Merz was in the Catholic youth movement. He has a record of voting against abortion and has made a few awkward comments about homosexuality (saying of Klaus Wowereit, a gay mayor of Berlin, “I don’t mind as long as he doesn’t come near me”). In a strange comment, he once referred to his wife and daughters as evidence he didn’t have a problem with women. In a TV debate with Scholz, Merz was asked about Donald Trump’s recognition of only two genders, and reacted: “You can understand his position.”

    In 2000, Merz spoke of a German Leitkultur (loosely, “leading culture”, as contrasted with “multiculturalism”) – a term now in common parlance in Merz’s CDU.

    4. He’s a transatlantacist

    From 2009 to 2019, Merz chaired the Atlantic Bridge, a prominent German organisation devoted to strengthening relations between Germany and the US. He is a transatlanticist by instinct and recently sent a hand-written note to Donald Trump congratulating him on his election, noting his “strong mandate for leadership”. However, in a statement on election night, Merz pledged to “achieve independence” from the US and recognised that Trump is “largely indifferent” to Europe’s fate.

    5. He’s pro-European

    With some caveats (for instance around common debt and cooperation over refugees) Merz is a pro-European. He was a member of the European parliament between 1989 and 1994, and has been clear that closer European cooperation is an essential part of Europe’s answer to Trump.

    He has also patched up relations with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen (with whom, as a Merkel ally and CDU liberal he had little instinctive attraction), and sees potential in cooperation with her and with Manfred Weber, a CSU politician and leader of the European parliament’s centre-right MEPs.

    Merz has also pledged to visit Warsaw and Paris to rebuild relations after a difficult period under Scholz.

    6. His dealings with the far right have been controversial

    Merz has been consistently inconsistent when it comes to relations with the AfD. He mused in 2023 about the possibility of cooperation at a local level, noting that “we are obliged to recognise democratic elections”, before rowing back.

    In November 2024, Merz said he and his party would not attempt to pass legislation in the national parliament if it meant relying on AfD votes to do it. But he shocked the nation in January 2025 when he did precisely that – pushing forward a hardline immigration plan with the AfD’s support.



    Read more:
    What happened in the German parliament and why is the far right hailing it as a ‘historic’ moment?

    The volte face earned him criticism from his nemesis, Merkel – although that’s not something likely to have concerned him unduly.

    7. He’ll be hemmed in by coalition politics

    Merz will need to strike a deal with multiple other parties in order to govern. That will make his flagship programme of tax cuts hard to achieve, since cuts to welfare or climate spending would be anathema to all potential coalition partners.

    Germany’s other parties instead want Merz to reconsider Germany’s “debt brake” – the constitutional rules that restrict government borrowing. He’ll be under even more pressure to do so given a broad consensus over the need to raise defence spending.

    Perhaps it will take a conservative fiscal hawk to assemble the necessary two-thirds majorities in both chambers of parliament for change.

    8. He’d like to visit… Tibet?

    Finally, among rather thin pickings in popular reporting on Merz’s hobbies, a softball interview last summer told us he likes modern classical music and Beethoven, and one day hopes to visit Tibet.

    But holidays will be some way from his priorities at the moment. There is a strong desire in Europe for Germany to play a more active leadership role once again. At a time when Trump is noisily backing away from underscoring European security and supporting Ukraine, Merz is keenly aware of the void being opened up, and is determined that Germany, with its European allies (including even the UK) will step up.

    Ed Turner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Who is Friedrich Merz, the man now most likely to lead Germany? Eight things to know – https://theconversation.com/who-is-friedrich-merz-the-man-now-most-likely-to-lead-germany-eight-things-to-know-247643

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ramadan is almost here. 5 tips to boost your wellbeing and energy levels if you’re fasting

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Romy Lauche, Deputy Director (Research), National Centre for Naturopathic Medicine, Southern Cross University

    Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock

    Ramadan is one of the most significant months of the Islamic lunar calendar. It marks the time when the Quran was revealed to Prophet Mohammed (peace be upon him).

    Almost 2 billion Muslims worldwide observe this month of prayer and reflection, which includes fasting between two prayers, Fajr at dawn and Maghrib at sunset.

    Ramadan is about purifying the mind, body and soul, and practising self-restraint. It’s a time for spiritual growth and dedication to God (or Allah in Arabic). Ramadan also brings people together for meals and celebrations, with a focus on helping those less fortunate.

    Depending on where you live, Ramadan can mean going 12 to 19 hours without eating or drinking anything, including water.

    Our research shows choosing balanced, nutrient-dense foods and drinks can result in better wellbeing and greater energy levels than following your usual diet during Ramadan.

    Here’s what to consider if you’re fasting for Ramadan.

    Do you have any health issues?

    Healthy Muslims are expected to fast during Ramadan once they have reached puberty.

    Frail older adults are exempt from fasting, as are pregnant, breastfeeding and menstruating women. Anyone who cannot participate in fasting can make up for the missed fasting days later.

    People with chronic illness or mental health may be exempt if fasting poses a risk to their health. If you suffer from chronic illness, such as diabetes, heart disease or kidney problems, and want to fast, consult your GP first.

    Fasting can have severe health consequences for people with certain medical conditions and those who rely on prescription medication. Some medications need to be taken at a specific time (and some with food) to be safe and effective.

    If you’re not drinking enough water during Ramadan, your body might also handle some medications differently: they may not work as well or cause side effects.

    For people who can safely fast, here are five tips to maintain your wellbeing during Ramadan.

    1. Plan ahead

    In preparation for Ramadan, stock up on essentials. Plan your meals and hydration in advance, to stay on top of your nutritional intake.

    Start reducing your caffeine gradually in the week leading to Ramadan, so your body can adjust. This can help prevent or reduce the fasting headaches that many experience at the beginning of Ramadan.

    Move your meals gradually towards Suhoor and Iftar times, so your body gets used to the new mealtimes.

    Plan your meals ahead of time.
    Ground Picture/Shutterstock

    2. Stay hydrated

    Staying hydrated is important during Ramadan. Women should aim to drink 2.1 litres of water or fluids (such as coconut water, clear soups, broths or herbal teas) each day. Men should aim for 2.6 litres.

    Limit the intake of sugary or artificially sweetened drinks and enjoy fresh fruit juice only in moderation. Sugary drinks cause a rapid increase in blood sugar levels. The body responds by releasing insulin, causing a drop in blood sugar, which can leave you feeling fatigued, irritable and hungry.

    Increase your hydration by including water-rich foods, such as cucumbers and watermelon, in your diet.

    3. Get your nutrients early

    Before dawn, have a nutrient-rich, slow-digesting meal, along with plenty of water.

    Select healthy nutrient-dense food with proteins and fats from lean meats, fish, chickpeas, tofu, nuts and seeds.

    Choose whole grain products, a variety of vegetables and fruits, and fermented foods, such as kimchi and pickles, which can support your digestion.

    When you prepare your meals, consider grilling, steaming or air frying instead of deep frying.

    Stay away from processed foods such as cakes, ice cream, chips and chocolates, as they often lack essential nutrients and are high in sugar, salt and fat. Processed foods also tend to be low in fibre and protein, which are crucial for maintaining a feeling of fullness.

    4. Avoid the temptation to overeat in the evening

    At sunset, many Muslims come together with family and friends for the fast-breaking evening meal (Iftar). During these occasions, it may be tempting to overindulge in sweets, salty snacks and fatty dishes.

    But overeating can strain the digestive system, cause discomfort and disrupt sleep.

    Start with something small.
    Tekkol/Shutterstock

    Instead, listen to your body’s signals, control your portions, and eat mindfully – this means slowly and without distractions.

    Start with something small, such as a date and a glass of water. You may choose to complete the Maghrib prayer before returning for your main meal and more fluids.

    5. Keep moving

    Finally, try to include some light exercise into your schedule, to maintain your fitness and muscle mass, and promote sleep.

    But avoid heavy workouts, sauna and intensive sports while fasting, as these may increase dehydration, which can increase your risk of feeling faint and falling.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ramadan is almost here. 5 tips to boost your wellbeing and energy levels if you’re fasting – https://theconversation.com/ramadan-is-almost-here-5-tips-to-boost-your-wellbeing-and-energy-levels-if-youre-fasting-248223

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Friedrich Merz has won Germany’s election. But as the far right soars, forming a government may be difficult

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Matt Fitzpatrick, Professor in International History, Flinders University

    Friedrich Merz’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has captured the highest proportion of votes in Germany’s election on Sunday. The celebrations could be short-lived, though, as the task of forming a government now looms.

    As it stands, Germany’s public broadcaster has projected Merz’s CDU and its Christian Social Union (CSU) counterpart in Bavaria to win 208 seats in the Bundestag (28.5%). The ousted Social Democratic Party (SPD) has been reduced to 121 seats (16.5%), while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party achieved its biggest-ever result of 151 seats (20.7%).

    Other minor parties have failed to meet the 5% threshold in the proportional German parliamentary system, limiting the possible options for a government to take shape.

    Merz’s party did lift its vote share compared to its record low in 2021. And German voters have given him the opportunity to attempt forming a governing coalition.

    However, his electoral strategy may have made it harder to solve a number of problems, many of them of his own making. Here are four key things his victory has failed to do, which could make governing in Germany more difficult.

    1. Stem the number of voters to the far right

    With the German economy in the doldrums, Merz would have easily won on the question of economic management alone. Strangely, however, his electoral strategy mimicked the anti-migrant rhetoric of the far-right AfD.

    By noisily electioneering on the policy of stemming the flow of migrants and insisting at every opportunity that migrants (particularly those from the Middle East) were a threat to the German way of life, Merz has given legitimacy to what had been fringe policies.

    Yet, the election results show that the Germans who were motivated to vote for an anti-migrant party went for the most virulent version (the AfD) – particularly in the old East Germany – and not Merz’s centre-right imitation.

    Instead of stealing votes from the AfD, Merz has substantially contributed to the record showing of the far-right party by making immigration – and radical approaches to it – a central issue.

    The smiles on the face of the AfD leadership after the election tell the story. The party may not be in government, but its policies will in all likelihood be pursued by a Merz government.

    2. Exclude the left from German politics

    The day before the election, Merz railed against “green and left crazies” and insisted “there is no longer left politics in Germany”.

    The SPD vote did sink dramatically off the back of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ineffectual and lacklustre term in office. But the left-wing Die Linke party (The Left) rode the wave of anti-AfD and anti-Merz sentiment to return from the wilderness with its best election showing in almost a decade.

    In particular, a rousing speech by Die Linke leader Heidi Reichinneck helped lift the mood on the left in response to Merz’s anti-migrant stance. Die Linke is back in the Bundestag, at least for another term.

    3. Create a governing coalition

    Merz has spent the past few weeks breaking taboos by working with the German far right and roundly abusing his opponents using the kind of intemperate language rarely seen in German politics. Now, he is faced with building a governing coalition.

    He has painted himself into a corner. He has called the Greens party and Die Linke “crazies”. And his closest ideological ally, the Free Democrats (FDP), appear to have failed to reach the 5% hurdle to enter parliament after voters punished the party for effectively blowing up the last coalition government.

    So shockingly poor was the FDP’s result, its leader, Christian Lindner, has offered his resignation.

    Previously, a “grand coalition” between the CDU and SPD has been able to form a stable government. This was especially so under former-Chancellor Angela Merkel, the longtime CDU leader.

    The centre-left SPD vote might just be large enough to form a coalition government with Merz’s CDU. Whether the SPD would do so after being shocked in the past few weeks by Merz’s dalliances with the far right remains an open question.

    Scholz, the SPD leader, has categorically ruled out serving in a Merz cabinet. Whether he might resign to make way for a grand coalition remains to be seen, should one prove mathematically possible.

    That leaves only the far-right AfD – the only other party potentially large enough to allow Merz to form a two-party coalition government. Merz has ruled out a CDU-AfD coalition as a threat to German democracy.

    Merz will either have to radically revise his attitudes towards the parties to his left or break his word not to allow the far right into government. If he did the latter, he may very well become Germany’s 21st century Franz von Papen, the Weimar Republic-era leader widely viewed as having helped usher the Nazis to power in the 1930s.

    4. Exorcise the ghost of Angela Merkel

    Merz’s career has been marked by his inability to overcome Merkel and her vision of the CDU as the umbrella party of the democratic centre.

    After dragging his party to the right, Merz has posted an electoral result lower than anything Merkel ever gained.

    Even if his party is able to cobble together a coalition government, Merz will still sit in the shadow of his more democratically popular, centrist predecessor.

    Matt Fitzpatrick receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is the President of the History Council of South Australia.

    – ref. Friedrich Merz has won Germany’s election. But as the far right soars, forming a government may be difficult – https://theconversation.com/friedrich-merz-has-won-germanys-election-but-as-the-far-right-soars-forming-a-government-may-be-difficult-250621

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: There’s an outbreak of melioidosis in north Queensland. Here’s what to know about this deadly ‘mud bug’

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thomas Jeffries, Senior Lecturer in Microbiology, Western Sydney University

    moomin201/Shutterstock

    Seven people have now died from melioidosis in flood-ravaged north Queensland this year.

    Dozens of cases have been reported in the state in recent weeks, which experts have described as unprecedented.

    So what is melioidosis, and why are we seeing a spike in cases now?

    How do people get infected?

    Melioidosis is caused by the bacterium Burkholderia pseudomallei, a bug which normally lives harmlessly in soil and freshwater. But it can be dangerous when it infects humans or animals.

    B. pseudomallei – sometimes called the “mud bug” – enters the body through cuts or scratches. It can also be breathed in and enter the lungs via small airborne water droplets, or by drinking affected water.

    Symptoms usually develop within one to four weeks after a person has been infected. The disease can cause either local infections, such as chronic skin ulcers, or, more commonly, a lung infection which can lead to pneumonia.

    Melioidosis is caused by the bacteria B. pseudomallei.
    Reddress/Shutterstock

    Symptoms of the infection include fever, headache, trouble breathing, chest and muscle pain, confusion and seizures. In rare cases the disease can enter the bloodstream and cause septicaemia.

    Treatment involves receiving intravenous antibiotics in hospital for several weeks followed by up to six months of oral antibiotics.

    How common is it?

    Diagnosis is usually conducted using a specialist bacterial culture. This is where a sample isolated from the patient is grown in a petri dish to identify the bacteria, which can take several days.

    Globally, around 165,000 cases of melioidosis are reported annually, and 89,000 deaths. The majority of cases occur in southeast Asia, particularly Thailand.

    Because similar symptoms can be caused by so many other diseases, melioidosis is commonly misidentified, meaning reported case numbers are probably far lower than the actual number of infections.

    Also, cases often occur in remote communities and resource-poor settings, which can mean they’re less likely to be diagnosed.

    The disease is thought to be endemic to northern Australia. It usually infects about 0.6 per 100,000 people annually in Queensland, which would be equivalent to around 30 people.

    In the Northern Territory, around 17 people per 100,000 are infected annually, which would be equivalent to about 42 cases. However, this data is several years old.

    In Australia, melioidosis is often treated before fatalities occur. The mortality rate has been estimated at less than 10%.

    More people die from the disease in lower-resource countries with poorer diagnostic capabilities and hospital facilities. In Thailand the mortality rate is estimated to be around 40%.

    Who is at risk?

    Anyone can get melioidosis, but certain people are at higher risk. This includes people with diabetes, liver and kidney disease, cancer, or other conditions which might compromise the patient’s immune system.

    In Australia, the disease is also significantly more common in First Nations people than among non-Indigenous Australians.

    Once infected, people who are Indigenous, older or have chronic health conditions are at higher risk of poorer outcomes.

    In the current outbreak in Queensland, at least three of the victims so far have been elderly.

    What’s causing the current outbreak?

    Recent cases in north Queensland have been identified mainly around Townsville and Cairns.

    Cairns and Hinterland Hospital and Health Service has recorded at least 41 cases since January 1, while more than 20 cases have been reported in Townsville in February.

    This is most likely related to increased rainfall and flooding in and around these areas.

    B. pseudomallei lives in soil and mud, and comes to the surface during periods of high rainfall. So recent heavy rain and flooding in north Queensland has likely increased the risk of melioidosis.

    In the Northern Territory, 28 cases have been reported since the start of the rainy season last October. However this is lower than recent seasons.

    How can you protect yourself?

    If you’re in an affected region, you can protect yourself by limiting exposure to mud and water, and using appropriate personal protective equipment such as gloves and boots if spending time in muddy areas. Cover any open wounds and wear a respirator if you’re working closely with water.

    Monitor for symptoms and see a doctor if you feel unwell.

    Several vaccines are in development for melioidosis, and experts have recently called for it to be recognised as a neglected tropical disease by the World Health Organization.

    Particularly seeing as increasing extreme weather events due to climate change may make melioidosis more common, hopefully we’ll see an increase in research into and awareness of this disease in the years ahead.

    Thomas Jeffries does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. There’s an outbreak of melioidosis in north Queensland. Here’s what to know about this deadly ‘mud bug’ – https://theconversation.com/theres-an-outbreak-of-melioidosis-in-north-queensland-heres-what-to-know-about-this-deadly-mud-bug-250392

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Friedrich Merz has won Germany’s election. But as the far right soars, forming a government may be difficult

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt Fitzpatrick, Professor in International History, Flinders University

    Friedrich Merz’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has captured the highest proportion of votes in Germany’s election on Sunday. The celebrations could be short-lived, though, as the task of forming a government now looms.

    As it stands, Germany’s public broadcaster has projected Merz’s CDU and its Christian Social Union (CSU) counterpart in Bavaria to win 208 seats in the Bundestag (28.5%). The ousted Social Democratic Party (SPD) has been reduced to 121 seats (16.5%), while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party achieved its biggest-ever result of 151 seats (20.7%).

    Other minor parties have failed to meet the 5% threshold in the proportional German parliamentary system, limiting the possible options for a government to take shape.

    Merz’s party did lift its vote share compared to its record low in 2021. And German voters have given him the opportunity to attempt forming a governing coalition.

    However, his electoral strategy may have made it harder to solve a number of problems, many of them of his own making. Here are four key things his victory has failed to do, which could make governing in Germany more difficult.

    1. Stem the number of voters to the far right

    With the German economy in the doldrums, Merz would have easily won on the question of economic management alone. Strangely, however, his electoral strategy mimicked the anti-migrant rhetoric of the far-right AfD.

    By noisily electioneering on the policy of stemming the flow of migrants and insisting at every opportunity that migrants (particularly those from the Middle East) were a threat to the German way of life, Merz has given legitimacy to what had been fringe policies.

    Yet, the election results show that the Germans who were motivated to vote for an anti-migrant party went for the most virulent version (the AfD) – particularly in the old East Germany – and not Merz’s centre-right imitation.

    Instead of stealing votes from the AfD, Merz has substantially contributed to the record showing of the far-right party by making immigration – and radical approaches to it – a central issue.

    The smiles on the face of the AfD leadership after the election tell the story. The party may not be in government, but its policies will in all likelihood be pursued by a Merz government.

    2. Exclude the left from German politics

    The day before the election, Merz railed against “green and left crazies” and insisted “there is no longer left politics in Germany”.

    The SPD vote did sink dramatically off the back of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ineffectual and lacklustre term in office. But the left-wing Die Linke party (The Left) rode the wave of anti-AfD and anti-Merz sentiment to return from the wilderness with its best election showing in almost a decade.

    In particular, a rousing speech by Die Linke leader Heidi Reichinneck helped lift the mood on the left in response to Merz’s anti-migrant stance. Die Linke is back in the Bundestag, at least for another term.

    3. Create a governing coalition

    Merz has spent the past few weeks breaking taboos by working with the German far right and roundly abusing his opponents using the kind of intemperate language rarely seen in German politics. Now, he is faced with building a governing coalition.

    He has painted himself into a corner. He has called the Greens party and Die Linke “crazies”. And his closest ideological ally, the Free Democrats (FDP), appear to have failed to reach the 5% hurdle to enter parliament after voters punished the party for effectively blowing up the last coalition government.

    So shockingly poor was the FDP’s result, its leader, Christian Lindner, has offered his resignation.

    Previously, a “grand coalition” between the CDU and SPD has been able to form a stable government. This was especially so under former-Chancellor Angela Merkel, the longtime CDU leader.

    The centre-left SPD vote might just be large enough to form a coalition government with Merz’s CDU. Whether the SPD would do so after being shocked in the past few weeks by Merz’s dalliances with the far right remains an open question.

    Scholz, the SPD leader, has categorically ruled out serving in a Merz cabinet. Whether he might resign to make way for a grand coalition remains to be seen, should one prove mathematically possible.

    That leaves only the far-right AfD – the only other party potentially large enough to allow Merz to form a two-party coalition government. Merz has ruled out a CDU-AfD coalition as a threat to German democracy.

    Merz will either have to radically revise his attitudes towards the parties to his left or break his word not to allow the far right into government. If he did the latter, he may very well become Germany’s 21st century Franz von Papen, the Weimar Republic-era leader widely viewed as having helped usher the Nazis to power in the 1930s.

    4. Exorcise the ghost of Angela Merkel

    Merz’s career has been marked by his inability to overcome Merkel and her vision of the CDU as the umbrella party of the democratic centre.

    After dragging his party to the right, Merz has posted an electoral result lower than anything Merkel ever gained.

    Even if his party is able to cobble together a coalition government, Merz will still sit in the shadow of his more democratically popular, centrist predecessor.

    Matt Fitzpatrick receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is the President of the History Council of South Australia.

    – ref. Friedrich Merz has won Germany’s election. But as the far right soars, forming a government may be difficult – https://theconversation.com/friedrich-merz-has-won-germanys-election-but-as-the-far-right-soars-forming-a-government-may-be-difficult-250621

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Erotica, gore and racism: how America’s war on ‘ideological bias’ is letting AI off the leash

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Judith Bishop, Tracey Banivanua Mar Fellow, La Trobe University

    3d_kot/Shutterstock

    Badly behaved artificial intelligence (AI) systems have a long history in science fiction. Way back in 1961, in the famous Astro Boy comics by Osamu Tezuka, a clone of a popular robot magician was reprogrammed into a super-powered thief. In the 1968 film 2001: A Space Odyssey, the shipboard computer HAL 9000 turns out to be more sinister than the astronauts on board think.

    More recently, real-world chatbots such as Microsoft’s Tay have shown that AI models “going bad” isn’t sci-fi any longer. Tay started spewing racist and sexually explicit texts within hours of its public release in 2016.

    The generative AI models we’ve been using since ChatGPT launched in November 2022 are generally well behaved. There are signs this may be about to change.

    On February 20, the US Federal Trade Commission announced an inquiry to understand “how consumers have been harmed […] by technology platforms that limit users’ ability to share their ideas or affiliations freely and openly”. Introducing the inquiry, the commission said platforms with internal processes to suppress unsafe content “may have violated the law”.

    The latest version of the Elon Musk–owned Grok model already serves up “based” opinions, and features an “unhinged mode” that is “intended to be objectionable, inappropriate, and offensive”. Recent ChatGPT updates allow the bot to produce “erotica and gore”.

    These developments come after moves by US President Donald Trump to deregulate AI systems. Trump’s attempt to remove “ideological bias” from AI may see the return of rogue behaviour that AI developers have been working hard to suppress.

    Executive orders

    In January, Trump issued a sweeping executive order against “illegal and immoral discrimination programs, going by the name ‘diversity, equity, and inclusion’ (DEI)”, and another on “removing barriers to AI innovation” (which includes “engineered social agendas”).

    In February, the US refused to join 62 other nations in signing a “Statement on Inclusive and Sustainable AI” at the Paris AI Action Summit.

    What will this mean for the AI products we see around us? Some generative AI companies, including Microsoft and Google, are US federal government suppliers. These companies could come under significant direct pressure to eliminate measures to make AI systems safe, if the measures are perceived as supporting DEI or slowing innovation.

    AI developers’ interpretation of the executive orders could result in AI safety teams being reduced in size or scope, or replaced by teams whose social agenda better aligns with Trump’s.

    Why would that matter? Before generative AI algorithms are trained, they are neither helpful nor harmful. However, when they are fed a diet of human expression scraped from across the internet, their propensity to reflect biases and behaviours such as racism, sexism, ableism and abusive language becomes clear.

    AI risks and how they’re managed

    Major AI developers spend a lot of effort on suppressing biased outputs and unwanted model behaviours and rewarding more ethically neutral and balanced responses.

    Some of these measures could be seen as implementing DEI principles, even as they help to avoid incidents like the one involving Tay. They include the use of human feedback to tune model outputs, as well as monitoring and measuring bias towards specific populations.

    Another approach, developed by Anthropic for its Claude model, uses a policy document called a “constitution” to explicitly direct the model to respect principles of harmless and respectful behaviour.

    Model outputs are often tested via “red teaming”. In this process, prompt engineers and internal AI safety experts do their best to provoke unsafe and offensive responses from generative AI models.

    A Microsoft blog post from January described red teaming as “the first step in identifying potential harms […] to measure, manage, and govern AI risks for our customers”.

    The risks span a “wide range of vulnerabilities”, “including traditional security, responsible AI, and psychosocial harms”.

    The blog also notes “it is crucial to design red teaming probes that not only account for linguistic differences but also redefine harms in different political and cultural contexts”. Many generative AI products have a global user base. So this sort of effort is important for making the products safe for consumers and businesses well beyond US borders.

    We may be about to relearn some lessons

    Unfortunately, none of these efforts to make generative AI models safe is a one-shot process. Once generative AI models are installed in chatbots or other apps, they continually digest information from the human world through prompts and other inputs.

    This diet can shift their behaviour for the worse over time. Malicious attacks, such as user prompt injection and data poisoning, can produce more dramatic changes.

    Tech journalist Kevin Roose used prompt injection to make Microsoft Bing’s AI chatbot reveal its “shadow self”. The upshot? It encouraged him to leave his wife. Research published last month showed that a mere drop of poisoned data could make medical advice models generate misinformation.

    Constant monitoring and correction of AI outputs are essential. There is no other way to avoid offensive, discriminatory or unsafe behaviours cropping up without warning in generated responses.

    Yet all signs suggest the Trump administration favours a reduction in the ethical regulation of AI. The executive orders may be interpreted as allowing or encouraging the free expression and generation of even discriminatory and harmful views on subjects such as women, race, LGBTQIA+ individuals and immigrants.

    Generative AI moderation efforts may go the way of Meta’s fact-checking and expert content moderation programs. This could have an impact on global users of US-made AI products such as OpenAI ChatGPT, Microsoft Co-Pilot and Google Gemini.

    We might be about to rediscover how essential these efforts have been to keep AI models in check.

    Judith Bishop has received funding from Creative Australia for a book on AI and human data. Until 2022 she led teams producing training data for global AI companies and US government research agencies.

    – ref. Erotica, gore and racism: how America’s war on ‘ideological bias’ is letting AI off the leash – https://theconversation.com/erotica-gore-and-racism-how-americas-war-on-ideological-bias-is-letting-ai-off-the-leash-250060

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How Whyalla can be upgraded to green steel and why we need to keep steel production in Australia

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Rossetto, Adjunct, Institute for Sustainability, Energy and Resources, University of Adelaide

    Financial challenges at the Whyalla steelworks in South Australia have reignited debate about the nation’s steel industry and its future.

    Australians should have access to quality steel at competitive prices. The domestic steel production industry employs tens of thousands of people.

    The state and federal governments have stepped in, however, announcing a A$1.9 billion support package for Whyalla, together with a new $1 billion green iron investment fund. Half of the new fund will be allocated to Whyalla to support its transition to green steel production. That’s a large amount of money for a privately owned business.

    So, are the new packages going to be money well spent? To answer that question, let’s examine the priorities.

    A national priority

    Steel is an industry in which securing sovereign production capability is crucial. Sovereign capability means ensuring an industry can survive external shocks such as interruptions to shipping routes or disputes with other countries in the supply chain.

    Steel is a vital input for defence industries such as ship and submarine building. What could be said of a country’s autonomy – or its sovereign capability – if it relies on others for the steel needed for its defence?

    Whyalla is one of the two largest steelworks in Australia, the other being BlueScope’s Port Kembla plant. At least at first glance, the green iron investment fund seems to deal with the sovereign capability criterion well enough. Whyalla appears an ideal candidate.

    However, the public subsidy is large. The subsidised plant’s ability to operate in an economically competitive manner needs to be examined. Further, while the Whyalla plant began its life as a supplier to an adjacent shipbuilding operation, its share of the current domestic defence industry steel market is unclear.

    Environmentally friendly steel?

    Production of steel using iron ore and coking coal is a greenhouse gas emissions intensive process. It can result in as many as 2.5 tonnes of greenhouse gas per tonne of steel.

    The plan for Whyalla has long been to replace its coal-fired blast furnace with an electric arc furnace. This could, in turn, be supplied with low-emission sources of energy and consume scrap steel. While there is no globally agreed definition, this kind of approach would likely qualify as green steel.

    Sanjeev Gupta’s GFG, the owner of the plant, had originally wanted this furnace to be operating by 2025, potentially using solar among its energy supply. The plan would have cut its emissions dramatically. The timeline later slipped to 2027.

    The longer term plan for Whyalla appears based around production of green hydrogen to replace coking coal. As the world charges toward net zero emissions by 2050, the belief is that Australia can capture a good part of the green metals market.

    The challenge is that green hydrogen is expensive and not widely used around the world. It’s hard to find signs that the global steel market is willing to pay a premium in the absence of sectoral emissions pricing. The strategy could therefore be seen as a bet on the future. If the bet went wrong, who would absorb the losses? It would, most likely, be the taxpayer.

    The United States leads the way in low-emissions steel production. Firms there use electric arc furnaces to recycle scrap steel with energy from low-emission sources. This technology is proven and operates at industrial scale. It has a fraction of the emissions intensity but relies on the availability of scrap steel.

    Can we add value?

    Australia is a major world supplier of two key materials crucial for most steel making. These are iron ore and coking coal.

    The countries to which we sell those raw materials then do the processing and manufacture, capturing profit that is arguably lost to the Australian economy. Whyalla is already an example of domestic value-adding. It uses iron ore from mines in the adjacent area, and domestic coking coal.

    For Australia, however, this is going to be tricky. Australia is effectively signalling to its international customers that, one day, it hopes to compete with them in the global steel markets. In other words, this creates an incentive for the country’s customers to look for alternatives to buy iron ore.

    Whether Australia increases steel production ahead of its customers finding new sources of iron ore elsewhere in the world is a risky race with an uncertain result.

    Focus on government spending

    So, back to the question: is the new funding going to be money well spent? Perhaps the most solid justification among the priorities examined, is sovereign capability.

    The government probably needs to provide more information on how the new fund differs through from Future Made in Australia or the National Reconstruction Fund. Is this old funding with a new name? The nation is entering federal election season. Focus on government spending efficiency is likely to increase.

    Daniel Rossetto is the owner of Climate Mundial Limited, a private company that does consulting work but is currently inactive. He does ad hoc private consulting through various consulting platforms. He is also the owner and host of a new private and independent YouTube channel called Climate Mundial’s Energy and Climate Weekly. He is on the editorial board of the Discover Sustainability journal published by Springer Nature.

    – ref. How Whyalla can be upgraded to green steel and why we need to keep steel production in Australia – https://theconversation.com/how-whyalla-can-be-upgraded-to-green-steel-and-why-we-need-to-keep-steel-production-in-australia-250402

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: China didn’t violate any rules with its live-fire naval exercises. So, why are Australia and NZ so worried?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Donald Rothwell, Professor of International Law, Australian National University

    In recent days, the Chinese Navy conducted two live-fire military exercises in waters near Australia and New Zealand, sparking concern in both countries.

    The Albanese government lodged a diplomatic protest with Beijing. China responded by saying it was “deeply surprised and strongly dissatisfied” by Australia’s response.

    What exactly happened?

    The presence of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (or PLA Navy) ships was well known. Australia’s Department of Defence put out a media release on February 13 indicating it was “aware” of the three ships operating to the northeast of Australia.

    Over the next week, the ships gradually made their way along Australia’s east coast through its exclusive economic zone in the Tasman Sea, which extends 200 nautical miles (370km) from a country’s coastline.

    On February 21, the PLA Navy gave short notice of its intent to conduct a possible live-fire exercise in the high seas between Australia and New Zealand. The next day, the ships conducted a second live-fire exercise. A live fire exercise can take many forms, such as using live rounds against stationary sea targets or the testing of new weapons systems.“

    Once Australia and New Zealand received China’s notification of its exercises, a maritime and air exclusion zone was created in the vicinity of the Chinese ships, and trans-Tasman commercial flights were diverted.

    Both exercises took place in “international waters”, which means no country has sovereignty over them. Neither Canberra nor Wellington contested China’s right to conduct these exercises, as the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea places no constraints on high-seas military operations.

    The United States, for example, has conducted such high-seas weapons tests in the past, causing Qantas flights across the Pacific to be occasionally diverted.

    If they were legal, why were Australia and NZ upset?

    Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles was critical of the short notice China gave both countries of its intention to use live rounds of ammunition.

    Typically, Marles said, standard protocol is to provide between 12 to 24 hours notice of such exercises. This allows enough time to warn other ships in the area and for airlines to divert their flights.

    However, because the exercises took place in the high seas, the protocol is more ambiguous. This became the key point of differentiation with China. Beijing could argue its warships are under no legal obligation to tell anyone what they are doing on the high seas. As Defence Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said,

    China’s actions are in full compliance with international law and international practices, and will not affect aviation flight safety.

    This is also the first instance of China conducting Tasman Sea military exercises. As such, it poses a challenge for how Australia and New Zealand should respond to future Chinese conduct.

    The PLA Navy has been sailing more frequently around the Australian coast and has observed Australian military exercises conducted with defence partners, such as Exercise Talisman Sabre in 2023.

    Why did China conduct the exercises here?

    This is an important question since China could have just as easily conducted these exercises closer to its own shores.

    Part of the answer lies in China having the capacity and capability to project its military force far beyond its own shores.

    These types of activities are also important intelligence gathering exercises. Each Chinese Navy visit will give it more experience in waters where it does not frequently sail, while also gauging how Australia and New Zealand respond.

    Given the increasing cooperation between China and some Pacific Island nations, such as the Cook Islands and Solomon Islands, we should expect the Chinese Navy will become a more frequent visitor to the region.

    What can Australia and NZ do about it?

    As Australia and New Zealand are strong supporters of the rules-based international order on which the law of the sea is based, there is very little they can legally do to obstruct China. Nevertheless, three options are available.

    First, enhanced air and naval surveillance of China’s activities in these waters is legally permissible. Constantly shadowing the PLA Navy in the South Pacific, though, would be a drain on stretched defence resources.

    Both countries would also need to ensure their navies are not in the line of fire to avoid an accident that could spiral into a major conflict.

    Second, Australia and New Zealand could work though bodies such as the International Maritime Organization and International Civil Aviation Organization to settle on agreed practices on how much advance notification is required for high seas live-fire tests.

    Finally, both countries could push for negotiations on a regional “naval code of conduct”. Similar codes have been agreed upon by both China and the US in the past. Incidents like this could prove to be a catalyst for more.

    The South Pacific will increasingly be a strategically contested maritime space. Australia and New Zealand frequently deploy their navies for humanitarian operations in neighbouring Pacific states and engage in exercises with their military partners. The US Navy is also becoming more active in the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea to counter China, as are the navies of other nations, such as the United Kingdom, France and Japan.

    With the potential for these various navies to be operating at the same time in the region, negotiating some basic “rules of the sea” would be a prudent and a helpful confidence-building measure to avoid a potential conflagration.

    Donald Rothwell receives funding from Australian Research Council.

    – ref. China didn’t violate any rules with its live-fire naval exercises. So, why are Australia and NZ so worried? – https://theconversation.com/china-didnt-violate-any-rules-with-its-live-fire-naval-exercises-so-why-are-australia-and-nz-so-worried-250618

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: In A Nighttime Travesty, First Nations women embrace Indigenous futurism – and push the boundaries of theatre

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julie Andrews, Professor and Academic Director (Indigenous Research), La Trobe University

    Gregory Lorenzutti/Malthouse Theatre

    A Nighttime Travesty is a bold new piece of theatre that depicts many illusions and truth interspersed with history.

    What would happen if the world was to end? A plane has left Earth because Earth is dying. The journey is an escape for survival, but they are taking Earth-created social inequalities with them.

    While hurtling into space, two hostesses talk about not feeling at home on Earth anymore. We can no longer advance as a human race and are forced to relocate.

    The future of humankind does not appear optimistic – it is in the hands of the pilot.

    Kamarra Bell-Wykes and Carly Sheppard, co-creators of the work and the lead performers, bring brilliance to their artistic flair, playing multiple characters.

    They are the two hostesses: one a young Aboriginal woman who has been impregnated by the pilot, and the other a robot. The pilot is played by Bell-Wykes, and Sheppard is a strange victim with a wit.

    A Nighttime Travesty intertwines Indigenous futurism and vaudeville.
    Gregory Lorenzutti/Malthouse Theatre

    Directed by Stephen Nicolazzo, A Nighttime Travesty is thought-provoking and complex theatre that addresses Aboriginal history and oppression using media representations of Aussie male humour.

    Earth is dying. The journey is an escape for survival, but they are taking Earth-created social inequalities with them. There is no new world waiting for them to start over. They will have to do that themselves.

    They ponder what is ahead of them as they travel to a new life somewhere in space.

    The thread throughout the production is held together by a black and white history while the actors sing, dance, give birth and turn into murderers.

    Indigenous futurism

    A Nighttime Travesty intertwines Indigenous futurism and vaudeville.

    Indigenous futurism is a cultural practice of imagining the future, while acknowledging past and present. Including cultural practices and ways of knowing with social and political commentary within a scientific framework can create an aura of illusion and truth.

    Aboriginal storytelling has long moved in and out of the past into the present in various artistic mediums as a form of expression and teaching. Indigenous futurism can be found in literature, film, visual arts, video games, poetry, music, fashion and theatre.

    The philosophies of Indigenous ways of knowing and oral histories are important tools for storytelling.

    The actors play dual gender neutral roles. The women depict the Australian male: the sexual power and masculinity in the workplace intermixed with artificial intelligence and technology. They are joined on stage by performers Zach Blampied and Peter Wykes, and musicians Matt Pana and Small Sound.

    A Nighttime Travesty is particularly dense with sexualised humour and underlying pokes of fun made at the Aussie male expense.

    The dark side of the humour from an Indigenous woman’s perspective steers the twists and turns which move with such quick motion that the audience is left waiting for conclusions to the messages.

    Kamarra Bell-Wykes and Carly Sheppard bring brilliance to their artistic flair.
    Gregory Lorenzutti/Malthouse Theatre

    Aboriginal history

    Much of this play is a reflection upon humanity and the life lessons learned or not learned from history. It is also a social and political commentary from young viewers of Australian humour on television and experiences of Australian society values.

    Throughout the play there is lots of symbolism reflecting Australia. The sexual humour is structured around Australian icons of media, and BBQ aprons with male and female printed torsos. The actors morph into the sexuality of the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal women.

    It seems the co-creators researched the long-running Saturday night national television show Hey Hey It’s Saturday to finally offer a First Nations commentary.

    On that show, men roasted each other, their guests and the audience – and presented a gem every now and then that would save their credibility.

    Here, a dark hooded man sits on a bench titled “Hey Hey it’s Judgement Day” and a puppet on a stick named Dicky Lee is involved in sexual acts. This is presented as humorous, yet the audience is left feeling slightly embarrassed at Dicky’s involvement.

    The play riffs off the long-running variety show Hey Hey, It’s Saturday.
    Gregory Lorenzutti/Malthouse Theatre

    Religion, sex and babies born out of wedlock are harsh realities of life. Religion and God is pondered for the new world – but God is a man, and is blamed for the problems of the world.

    Can they start over in a modern world, and what will their faith be? The Aboriginal hostess is concerned that, on a new planet, her Elders will be meaningless and, as the only Aboriginal on the plane, her culture and her race will die out. But wait – her baby will be the new beginning.

    A Nighttime Travesty from A Daylight Connection played at Malthouse Theatre, Melbourne. Season closed.

    Julie Andrews does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. In A Nighttime Travesty, First Nations women embrace Indigenous futurism – and push the boundaries of theatre – https://theconversation.com/in-a-nighttime-travesty-first-nations-women-embrace-indigenous-futurism-and-push-the-boundaries-of-theatre-248132

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A 380-million-year-old fossil ‘fish’ from Scotland has been discovered in Australia

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gavin Charles Young, Departmental Visitor, Materials Physics, Research School of Physics, Australian National University

    3D printouts of the _Palaeospondylus australis_ holotype, enlarged x20. Carole Burrow

    Queensland is renowned for its fossils of Australia’s largest back-boned animals – dinosaurs, of course, like the Jurassic Rhoetosaurus, the Cretaceous Wintonotitan, and other large sauropods.

    However, our new paper published in the journal National Science Review documents the smallest vertebrate fossil animal described so far from the state.

    It’s a highly enigmatic tiny “fish” from a remote location close to the Northern Territory border. It lived in the shallow margins of a marine environment about 400 million years ago.

    A scattering of its skeletal elements was preserved in a small limestone outcrop at the southern end of the Toomba Range, on the edge of the Simpson Desert.

    Palaeospondylus, a fossil enigma

    Our paper describes a new species of the genus Palaeospondylus, only the second known. Remarkably, for the last 135 years, Palaeospondylus has been represented by a single species that lived in northern Scotland, on the other side of the world from our discovery.

    Unlike nearly all fossil fish of that age, Palaeospondylus was “naked”, lacking external dermal bones and scales. But it did have a mineralised internal skeleton.

    It is the oldest example from the fossil record to show a segmented vertebral column (a sort of backbone), hence its name – Greek for “ancient vertebra”.

    Palaeospondylus gunni specimen from Achanarras Quarry, northern Scotland.
    Carole Burrow

    The type species Palaeospondylus gunni is known from thousands of fairly complete specimens, almost all from a single flagstone quarry.

    When first described in 1890, it attracted a flurry of competing interpretations in Europe and North America. Which group of animals did it belong to?

    Since its discovery, it has been assigned to almost all major jawless and jawed vertebrate groups. All specimens were compressed, making the skeletal elements “melt” together. Imagination has always played a great role in trying to identify its parts.

    Even after the advent of 3D scanning, three recent studies reached different conclusions. According to those, Palaeospondylus was related either to chondrichthyans (sharks), or tetrapods (the land vertebrates). Or maybe it was a stem jawed vertebrate – branching separately from the base of the evolutionary tree for all vertebrates with jaws.

    The Queensland Palaeospondylus

    The story of discovery of our new Queensland species, Palaeospondylus australis, began in 1977.

    In the 1960s, geologist Reg Sprigg had predicted oil and gas beneath the northern Simpson Desert. The Bureau of Mineral Resources was conducting seismic surveys and microfossil sampling across the Georgina Basin, immediately to the north.

    Microfossils are tiny fossils that can only be studied with a microscope, but are crucial to determining the age of the rock. Numerous sedimentary rock samples are collected, preferably limestones, because these can be dissolved in acid. The insoluble microfossils can then be identified and studied in the acid residues.

    In 1977, I collected bits of limestone from an obscure gully in the Cravens Peak Beds, the sandstone forming the main ridge of the Toomba Range. Surprisingly, these produced a rich collection of Devonian fish microfossils. This was the first evidence that an arm of the sea had extended into central Australia during the Early Devonian (about 400 million years ago).

    The 1977 Cravens Peak limestone samples before being processed in acid.
    Carole Burrow

    In the 2000s, palaeontologist Carole Burrow at the Queensland Museum was investigating the internal structure of Devonian fish microfossils to assist in dating the rocks.

    In the Cravens Peak samples, she noticed some distinctively shaped, tiny elements composed of an unusual honeycomb-like tissue. Carole hypothesised this could be a new species of Palaeospondylus, the only record from outside Scotland.

    So, in 2006, we organised another field trip to this remote location.

    The 2006 field trip participants (Tim Senden, Tim Holland, Carole Burrow, John Long, Gavin Young) looking south from the end of the Toomba Range, the last rock outcrop for around 500 km across the Simpson Desert.
    Bruce Burrow

    Returning to the Queensland Museum after our field trip, Carole’s colleague from the Netherlands, palaeontologist Jan den Blaauwen, sent her new images showing similar honeycomb-like structure in the Scottish Palaeospondylus gunni.

    Carole was acid-etching the newly collected samples so she could extract any microfossils. Luckily, she noticed a slightly larger specimen appearing on the rock surface (although still tiny, only about 3.6 millimetres long). It was highly interesting because it seemed bilaterally symmetrical.

    Could this be a braincase (the bony capsule inside the skull that encloses the brain)? She immediately stopped acid etching before it disintegrated into crumbs.

    Palaeospondylus australis holotype, QMF 52826, ventral braincase exposed on the limestone surface by acid etching (left), and trimmed for CT scanning (right).
    Carole Burrow, Gavin Young

    The first uncrushed braincase

    At the Australian National University, our sample was carefully trimmed before CT scanning, revealing the first uncrushed braincase of Palaeospondylus known to science.

    It’s now the holotype – defining type specimen – for our new species. And we have about 400 other elements with the same honeycomb structure which belong to it, too.

    The unique uncrushed preservation of this braincase, revealed by CT scanning and 3D printing techniques, provides the first details of brain structure in this tiny animal from 400 million years ago.

    These include the shape of the cranial cavity and inner ear canals, the position of the pituitary gland and optic nerve openings, and details of the carotid arteries and jugular veins for blood supply to the brain.

    3D scan image, the first view of the upper braincase surface of Palaeospondylus, showing the large opening into the cranial cavity.
    Jing Lu/Insitute of Vertebrate Paleontology and Paleoanthropology, Beijing

    More questions remain

    It is noteworthy that our curiosity-driven research into ancient brain morphology can be traced back to economically driven geological surveys of nearly 50 years ago, conducted to support exploration for oil and gas across central Australia.

    As with any research result, there are now new questions to be investigated. The honeycomb tissue seems unique to Palaeospondylus, but could be a precursor to calcified cartilage of some other groups, including modern sharks.

    Alternatively, it could be an early evolutionary stage for the spongy tissue (endochondral bone) filling the inside of most bones in modern land vertebrates, including humans.

    The unique holotype of our new species clearly shows that previous interpretations of the crushed Scottish material included many structures that were not part of the braincase.

    We’ve also now demonstrated that a recent study in the leading science journal Nature, which proposed that Palaeospondylus was closely related to our tetrapod ancestors, relied on many erroneous interpretations of braincase structure.

    Of one thing we can be sure – Palaeospondylus was not a stem tetrapod.

    Acknowledgements: Carole Burrow from Queensland Museum contributed greatly to this article.

    Gavin Charles Young has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. A 380-million-year-old fossil ‘fish’ from Scotland has been discovered in Australia – https://theconversation.com/a-380-million-year-old-fossil-fish-from-scotland-has-been-discovered-in-australia-250054

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A Chinese own goal? How war games in the Tasman Sea could push NZ closer to AUKUS

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Gillespie, Professor of Law, University of Waikato

    The appearance of three Chinese naval vessels firing live rounds in the Tasman Sea has caused understandable alarm in New Zealand and Australia. But this has more to do with the geopolitical context than the actual event.

    In fact, the Chinese navy is allowed to conduct exercises in the Tasman and has wide freedoms on the high seas in general. So far, China appears to be acting in accordance with both the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea.

    While New Zealand would have preferred more notice of the Chinese navy’s intentions, there was no obligation to provide this.

    Nor is what is occurring in the Tasman similar to the more aggressive sabre-rattling the Chinese military has displayed around the South China Sea, most recently involving both the Australian and Philippine navies.

    And in September last year, just a few days after Australian and New Zealand vessels sailed through the Taiwan Strait, the Chinese test-fired a nuclear-capable intercontinental missile into the South Pacific.

    For China, of course, Taiwan and parts of the South China Sea are highly disputed territory. The Tasman Sea is not. But what is disputed is China’s role and influence in the Pacific – and this, rather than a minor naval exercise, is what is causing headaches in Canberra and Wellington.

    The Cook Islands factor

    The surprise agreement signed by the Cook Islands and China under a fortnight ago, aimed at “deepening blue economy cooperation”, is the immediate context for that concern.

    The deal avoids controversial areas such as security and policing. But it moves Chinese influence into infrastructure support for wharves, shipbuilding and repair, and ocean transportation.

    What really challenges New Zealand’s foreign policy is how this opens the South Pacific up to even greater Chinese influence and activity. Foreign Minister Winston Peters has signalled it is time to reset the relationship with the Cooks.

    For its part, China has asserted that its relationship with the Cook Islands “is not directed against any third party and should not be subject to or disrupted by any third party”.

    In other words, China has told New Zealand to butt out of a major development in the historically close diplomatic and political relationship with its Pacific neighbour.

    A Chinese own goal?

    All of this is happening within a rapidly shifting geopolitical sphere. US President Donald Trump is unilaterally attempting to upend the old US-led world order, and other major powers such as Russia and China are adapting.

    New Zealand’s relations with China were already difficult. The Security Intelligence Service and Government Communications Security Bureau have both identified state-sponsored Chinese interference in domestic affairs, breaches of the parliamentary network and other malicious cyber activity.

    The question now is whether China has scored an own goal with its recent actions. Because while it might prefer New Zealand to operate a more independent foreign policy – balancing its relations with east and west – the opposite may now be more likely.

    In times of international stress and uncertainty, New Zealand has always tended to move towards deepening relationships with traditional allies.

    Whether it is the fear of Russian invasion in the 19th century, or Japanese invasion in the 20th century – and whether or not those threats are real or imagined – New Zealand reverts to form.

    It has been this way for nearly 150 years and is likely to occur again. New Zealand is already grappling with how to respond to the Trump administration’s redrawn global system and will be looking for ways to deepen the friendship.

    At the same time, the government now seems committed to joining a new arms race and increasing defence spending as a proportion of GDP. And the supposed benefits of joining the second tier of the AUKUS security pact may now become that much easier to sell politically.

    Alexander Gillespie does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A Chinese own goal? How war games in the Tasman Sea could push NZ closer to AUKUS – https://theconversation.com/a-chinese-own-goal-how-war-games-in-the-tasman-sea-could-push-nz-closer-to-aukus-250615

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘It’s disgusting that they can get away with this’: here’s how eviction can affect tenants’ lives

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Morris, Professor, Institute for Public Policy and Governance, University of Technology Sydney

    For people relying on rental properties to keep a roof over their heads, there are few things more scary than the possibility of being evicted from their home.

    The paucity of official statistics makes it difficult to know exactly how common evictions are. In 2019–20, 13.8% of private renters moved due to their lease being terminated or not renewed.

    Besides a report or two, we know little about what happens when households face the possibility of being evicted, or are actually evicted.

    Our research examines these consequences. Through in-depth interviews with 53 private tenants in New South Wales and Queensland, we found these experiences negatively shaped people’s lives well into the future. Here are four themes we identified.

    1. Poor mental health

    The ease with which landlords can terminate a tenant’s occupation evoked persistent anxiety for most of the interviewees (the interviews were conducted prior to the scrapping of no-grounds eviction in NSW, though such evictions are still allowed in other states and territories).

    This was especially so for low-income tenants.

    When interviewed, Susan* had recently been evicted from her apartment in Sydney. She was reliant on the Disability Support Pension for her income and lived in constant fear of being evicted and rendered homeless. She felt that having a disability and being from a non-English-speaking background made her precarity worse:

    if you are somebody who comes from a non-English-speaking background, or you have a disability, or have no ability to enforce [the legislation], it’s on the tenant to take up the laws and to do something about it. And if you don’t have any of those abilities, you’re just going to be on your way to homelessness very, very soon […]

    Grace lived by herself in Sydney. She had been given a no-grounds termination and was convinced it was linked to her landlord’s realisation that he could raise her rent considerably once she moved out. Her mental health was seriously affected by the eviction:

    It was just like out of nowhere […] so that was horrific […] I’m still trying to settle into this new place with that trauma of being uprooted all of a sudden […] I think it’s probably going to affect me for a while and particularly in terms of just the power that real estates and landlords have to be able to do that.

    2. Financial hardship

    For many of the low-income tenants, the financial implications of being evicted were severe.

    Sarah, her husband and their three children had been renting in Sydney since 2013. She estimated that since 2014, they had had to move at least six times. Most of the moves were not voluntary. She found the financial implications of evictions extremely distressing:

    It’s the finances of it that’s the hardest […] when you get asked to move, you need to have a bond ready to go at the next place before you receive your bond back, which is a killer […]

    She outlined all the expenses that came up each time she moved from one rental to another: professional cleaners, removalists and maintenance deducted from the bond.

    After her rented accommodation was condemned, Brenda, a single mum of two children, had 48 hours to move from her rental property in regional Queensland. The move consumed her savings:

    I had $200 after paying all my bills to move. So once I moved that was it. So I struggled the following week for everything. For food, […] getting my son to school, my daughter. It was just horrible.

    3. Reluctance to complain

    The knowledge that, at some point, the rent could be increased to an untenable level or they could be asked to vacate evoked silent compliance. This created a reluctance to complain or request basic maintenance.

    Alice was convinced she was evicted after complaining about the poor condition of the rental property she, her son and grandson had been renting for eight years in regional NSW. Her grandson’s bedroom was unusable due to excessive mould.

    However, her low income and the threat of eviction meant she held off complaining for an extended period:

    […] it’s just disgusting that they [landlords] can get away with this shit while charging top dollar, and […] that’s why I didn’t complain because I said to everybody, “as soon as I complain he’ll kick us out.” […] If I hadn’t complained, we’d still be there […]

    Sarah described how, despite feeling harassed and stressed by her landlord’s unannounced and constant intrusions, she felt the family had to accept the situation and not protest:

    I was petrified of being kicked out if we fought back and so […] we let him onto the property 16 times in 10 months and said nothing.

    When they couldn’t take it any longer and complained, they were given notice, the landlord claiming he needed to do maintenance that required the property to be vacant.

    4. Ending up in a worse home

    A common consequence of eviction is having to move to unsuitable, lower-quality accommodation.

    Jan and her partner were older renters and reliant on government benefits for their income. The flow-on effects of being evicted from their accommodation in Queensland, where they had been living for ten years, were devastating. Her partner attempted suicide, her relationship with him ended, and she was forced to live in a tent on a piece of land her mother had bought several years prior:

    our rental accommodation was sold out from under us to developers and we had to be out with nowhere to go. We looked around for somewhere else to rent and there was absolutely nowhere we could afford at all.

    It’s clear that eviction, or the threat thereof, can have devastating affects on people’s lives.

    Although there has been some movement around improving the lot of private renters, such as legislation abolishing no-grounds eviction in some jurisdictions, and rent increases being allowed only once a year, a lot more needs to be done to ensure tenants have acceptable security of tenure.

    *All names in this article have been changed to protect participants’ privacy.

    Alan Morris receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Joelle Moore receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Thi Thanh Mai Giang receives funding from The Australian Research Council.

    Yiran Li receives funding from funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. ‘It’s disgusting that they can get away with this’: here’s how eviction can affect tenants’ lives – https://theconversation.com/its-disgusting-that-they-can-get-away-with-this-heres-how-eviction-can-affect-tenants-lives-248221

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tiger Woods and Serena Williams were sporting prodigies but children shouldn’t train like them

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Justin Keogh, Associate Dean of Research, Faculty of Health Sciences and Medicine, Bond University

    photoyh/Shutterstock

    Most children have now returned from their summer holidays and are perhaps considering what sports to play this year.

    For some, this means sampling a wide range of sports, but others might continue to focus on the same one they’ve been addicted to since they were able to walk and run.

    But when it comes to possible sporting success, is it best to concentrate on one or give many a go?

    Early specialisation

    As the name suggests, early specialisation is typically defined as participation in one task or activity, with the aim to improve subsequent performances.

    The rationale for its purported benefit can be traced to the theory of deliberate practice – or what some readers may have colloquially encountered as the “10,000-hour rule”.

    Broadly, this theory proposes the attainment of excellence is proportionate to the number of accumulated hours invested into deliberate skill rehearsal.

    So, the earlier someone specialises via deliberate practice, the more likely they’ll expedite the acquisition of expertise – or so the theory suggests.

    While first explored in the musical domain, there are some examples of athletes who specialised early in a sport who went on to highly successful careers.

    These include Simone Biles (who started gymnastics at the age of six), Tiger Woods (who hit a golf ball on the Mike Douglas TV show at the age of two) and Serena Williams (who was profiled hitting tennis balls on CNN at the age of nine).

    There are also a host of athletes who specialised early and achieved outstanding success as a junior but never reached sporting success as an adult for myriad reasons.

    Doesn’t practice make perfect?

    Everyone would have encountered the saying “practice makes perfect”.

    But does it really?

    Of course, practice is an integral component of acquiring, developing and sharpening any skill. But perhaps we should be a little cautious.

    Let us explain by first asking a few key questions that we encourage readers to ask themselves as the article unfolds: how much practice is needed to be perfect? What type of practice is needed to be perfect? And can “perfect” practice actually help us develop skills that are transferable between sports?

    In other words, if practice makes perfect, should we not be advocating for sporting specialisation as early in life as possible?

    It may seem logical, but is this belief – held by many parents, youth sport coaches, and perhaps children themselves – actually supported by evidence?

    A 2022 systematic review suggested most elite, professional and Olympic level athletes engaged in multisport activities during their youth.

    That is, they did not specialise in their chosen sport but actually diversified their sporting experiences up to the age of about 12, with some level of specialisation occurring from the age of 13 onward.

    That was not all they found.

    Youth sport specialisation was actually linked with increased risks of injury in athletes at the highest levels of competition when compared to those who engaged in multisport activities.

    A similar review noted there was no evidence to support specialisation prior to puberty in the attainment of sporting excellence later in life.

    What sport specialisation did increase, however, were risks of injury, psychological stress and sporting drop out.

    A model to follow

    In support of these findings, Jean Côtè (a leading expert in the field of youth psychology) and colleagues proposed a developmental model of sports participation.

    This model is broken into three general stages of participation: the sampling years (between the ages of 6-12), the specialising years (13-15), and the investment years (16 and beyond).

    As the name of each stage suggests, they are defined by unique types of participation.

    For example, the sampling years are characterised by the acquisition of functional motor skills (such as running, throwing and jumping), developed through a wide variety of experiences.

    The specialising years feature a progressive increase in focus on the deliberate practice of one or two sports, while the investment years are characterised by more deliberately increasing the volume of practice around one sport. In Australia, this may be the stage where seasonal sports become year-long through the establishment of pre-season training.

    Since its inception nearly two decades ago, there has been a growing amount of research supporting these suggestions.

    Food for thought

    So what does this all mean for parents, youth coaches and children?

    We suggest not to rush the process even if your child dreams of an elite sporting career: children under the age of 16 should engage in a wide variety of sporting experiences.

    This is not only fun, but the research shows us diversity is likely to reduce the risk of overuse injuries and increase the likelihood of sporting excellence later in life, should that be their ambition.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tiger Woods and Serena Williams were sporting prodigies but children shouldn’t train like them – https://theconversation.com/tiger-woods-and-serena-williams-were-sporting-prodigies-but-children-shouldnt-train-like-them-248558

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump is reviving a tariff strategy from America’s ‘Gilded Age’. It didn’t end well last time

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Garritt C. Van Dyk, Senior Lecturer in History, University of Waikato

    Getty Images

    A White House fact sheet about Donald Trump’s recently announced “Fair and Reciprocal Plan” on trade described it as “the art of the international deal” – a reference to Trump’s 1987 business book, The Art of the Deal.

    It was a classic piece of self-marketing from the president, but whether his latest tariff proposal will really turn out to be artful is very much open to question.

    In fact, the United States’ long history of “reciprocity” in tariffs and trade suggests ordinary Americans could be in for a bumpy ride.

    In essence, Trump is reviving a strategy used in the US more than a century ago to protect developing domestic industries. This time, according to the president, reciprocal tariffs aim “to correct longstanding imbalances in international trade and ensure fairness across the board”.

    The plan targets trade relationships with other countries where the US does not receive reciprocal treatment. And it echoes the policies of the 25th US president, William McKinley, who presided over an aggressive reciprocal tariff regime in the late 19th century.

    McKinley was president from 1897 until he was assassinated in 1901. And while Trump greatly admires his business acumen, McKinley’s economic legacy also reads like a cautionary tale.

    Not a simple equation

    From the current US perspective, “reciprocity” refers to symmetrical tariffs. Trump’s plan targets unequal rates, such as the European Union’s 10% tariff on US cars, compared with the 2.5% US tariff on European automobiles.

    The EU’s 10% rate represents its “most-favoured-nation” tariff, which applies to all its favoured-nation trading partners (with certain exceptions).

    While this looks like a clear lack of reciprocity, it’s not that simple. The US also applies a 25% tariff on EU utility vehicles (pickup trucks).

    This is significant because of the popularity of pickups in the US – a 2024 survey found 47% of Americans owned one. Until last year, the Ford F150 had been the bestselling “car” in the US for 42 years in a row.

    This is just one example of how differences in tariffs can be more complex than they appear at first glance.

    A history of reciprocal tariffs

    This cycle of higher and lower tariffs has gone on for well over a century. From 1861 to 1930, the US Congress maintained control over trade tariffs, with levels as high as 50% to protect developing industries.

    But in 1934, Congress passed the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act, giving President Franklin D. Roosevelt authority to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions with individual nations to stimulate global trade during the Great Depression.

    These tariff reductions continued after World War II with the development of the World Trade Organization and US tariff levels declining to 5%. Economist Douglas Irwin refers to this period as the “reciprocity period” of nations lowering barriers to international trade.

    The last time “reciprocity” was used to refer to the opposite process of raising tariffs was in 1890, under the Tariff Act, often just called the McKinley Tariff. It is this era Trump harked back to in his inaugural address:

    President McKinley made our country very rich through tariffs and through talent – he was a natural businessman.

    William McKinley.
    Getty Images

    Before he became president, McKinley was head of the House of Representatives’ Ways and Means Committee. He proposed an average increase in tariffs on all imports, rising from 38% to 49.5% to “secure reciprocal trade”.

    The new law was designed to protect the tinplate industry with a tariff of 70%, and “to reduce the revenue and equalize duties on imports”.

    At the time, the US was running large surpluses from tariff revenues, which was threatening economic growth. This sounds counterintuitive these days, but surpluses were a problem because the US dollar was backed by gold at a fixed price (the gold standard).

    Because the amount of money in circulation – and state spending – were limited to the amount of gold held by the government, surplus funds had to be kept in the Treasury reserves. This reduced the money supply and led to lower growth, less investment and tighter credit.

    Republicans thought higher tariffs would reduce imported goods and therefore tariff revenues. Instead, income from the higher tariffs more than compensated for import reductions, and the surpluses increased.

    Consumer prices rose, farm prices dropped, and the resulting voter backlash saw the Republicans lose control of Congress at the 1890 midterm elections. There was a financial panic in 1893, followed by a recession that lasted until 1896.

    A new ‘Gilded Age’

    This period in late 19th-century US history is often referred to as the “Gilded Age”, from the title of an 1873 book by Charles Dudley Wright and Mark Twain.


    The book was a satire of political corruption and unscrupulous businessmen who benefited from political favours. The title reflects the reality of the era – superficially prosperous but not truly golden.

    A thin veneer of technological progress, innovation and wealth concealed widespread corruption, scandals and income inequality.

    But aside from the obvious historical parallels, it is overly optimistic to expect a plan from 1890 to succeed in a complex global trade environment that relies on interdependent supply chains to function.

    McKinley’s flawed strategy sought protection for a few industries, but also aimed to reduce revenue for a government running large surpluses. However, Trump’s new tariffs are meant to raise revenue to pay off the US$36.5 trillion national debt, as well as to enforce reciprocal trade terms.

    Trump began his second term with a declaration that “the golden age of America begins right now”. As in 1890, however, the risk remains that a handful of wealthy industrialists will benefit from increased protection, while ordinary citizens will pay higher prices.

    Less the “art of the deal”, then, than a possible dealbreaker. In which case, Trump may yet be remembered less for a new golden age than for a Gilded Age 2.0.

    Garritt C. Van Dyk received funding from the Getty Research Institute in 2024 .

    – ref. Trump is reviving a tariff strategy from America’s ‘Gilded Age’. It didn’t end well last time – https://theconversation.com/trump-is-reviving-a-tariff-strategy-from-americas-gilded-age-it-didnt-end-well-last-time-250389

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor crashes to a 55–45 deficit in Resolve despite interest rate cut

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted February 18–23 from a sample of 1,506, gave the Coalition a 55–45 lead by headline respondent preferences, a three-point gain for the Coalition since January. By 2022 election preference flows, the Coalition led by 52–48, a one-point gain for them.

    Primary votes were 39% Coalition (up one), 25% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (steady), 9% One Nation (up two), 9% independents (down one) and 4% others (down two). Labor’s primary vote is their lowest in any poll this term.

    Anthony Albanese’s net approval was steady at -22, with 56% giving him a poor rating and just 34% a good one. Peter Dutton’s net approval was down one to +5. Dutton led Albanese by 39–35 as preferred PM (39–34 in January).

    By 37–26, voters thought the Coalition was the best choice for them and their household over Labor. By 34–18, they thought Dutton better able to deal with Donald Trump than Albanese. By 43–22, they thought Albanese weaker than Dutton.

    The Liberals led Labor by 41–24 on economic management (42–23 in January). The Liberals led on keeping the cost of living low by 37–25, down a little from 37–22 in January.

    In both the Resolve and Freshwater polls that were taken after the Reserve Bank cut interest rates, the Coalition has increased its lead. Here is the graph that shows the dramatic widening in the Resolve poll in the Coalition’s favour.

    Dutton’s ratings have been much better than Albanese’s in Resolve, and this is now flowing through to voting intentions. To put Labor back on track, Albanese needs to improve his ratings and Dutton’s need to fall. In this respect, the Freshwater poll below was much better for Labor.

    Resolve’s respondent preference flows are probably a pro-Coalition outlier, but the general trend in the polls has been bleak for Labor.

    Freshwater poll: Coalition leads by 52–48

    A national Freshwater poll, conducted February 20–23 from a sample of 1,038, gave the Coalition a 52–48 lead by respondent preferences, a one-point gain for the Coalition since January. Primary votes were 41% Coalition (up one), 31% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (steady) and 15% for all Others.

    Albanese’s net approval improved seven points to -11, while Dutton’s dropped four points to -8. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 45–43 (a 43–43 tie in January).

    On issues, 70% rated cost of living a top three issue, followed by 39% for housing, 27% for both crime and economic management, 26% for health and just 17% for the environment. The Coalition held double-digit leads over Labor on cost of living, crime and economic management.

    Essential poll: Labor gains for a tie

    A national Essential poll, conducted February 12–16 from a sample of 1,146, had a 48–48 tie by respondent preferences including undecided (49–47 to the Coalition in early February). The Coalition had led in the last four Essential polls by one to two points.

    Primary votes were 35% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (steady), 9% One Nation (up one), 1% UAP (steady), 9% for all Others (steady) and 4% undecided (steady). By 2022 preference flows, Labor would lead by about 51–49, a 0.5-point gain for Labor.

    Albanese’s net approval dropped five points to -5 since January, with 48% disapproving and 43% approving, but the January poll had an 11-point jump in his net approval from December. Dutton’s net approval was down three points to -4, his worst net approval in Essential since February 2024.

    Asked about the direction of the country, wrong track led by 51–31, a blowout from 46–38 in January. Wrong track led by the same 51–31 margin in December, and it has consistently had sizeable leads since June 2023.

    On taxes and government services, 26% thought they should be reduced, 11% increased and 63% maintained. By 40–31, respondents opposed the Coalition’s plan to reduce the number of public service workers.

    Asked whether they were aware of various Labor achievements, 77% were aware of the $300 energy bill rebate for all households, 66% were aware of TAFE and HECS debt cuts and 61% were aware of increased renewable energy targets. However, only 46% were aware of consecutive budget surpluses.

    Morgan poll and Palmer’s new party

    A national Morgan poll, conducted February 10–16 from a sample of 1,666, gave the Coalition a 51.5–48.5 lead by headline respondent preferences, unchanged from the February 3–9 poll.

    Primary votes were 39.5% Coalition (down one), 28% Labor (down one), 12.5% Greens (up 1.5), 5.5% One Nation (up 1.5), 10% independents (up 0.5) and 4.5% others (down 1.5). By 2022 election flows, the Coalition led by 51–49, a 0.5-point gain for Labor.

    Clive Palmer had voluntarily deregistered the United Australia Party after the 2022 election. The High Court denied his attempt to re-register this party. He has now taken over the existing party “Trumpet of Patriots”.

    Queensland federal and state DemosAU poll

    A DemosAU poll of Queensland that asked for federal voting intentions, conducted February 10–14 from a sample of 1,004, gave the Liberal National Party a 53–47 lead, representing a 1% swing to Labor since the 2022 federal election result in Queensland.

    Primary votes were 39% LNP, 31% Labor, 12% Greens, 10% One Nation and 8% for all Others. DemosAU is using the One Nation preference flow at the 2024 Queensland state election for its federal polls; this was better for the LNP than at the 2022 federal election.

    State voting intentions were 54–46 to the LNP, unchanged since the 2024 election. Primary votes were 40% LNP, 30% Labor, 12% Greens, 10% One Nation and 8% for all Others.

    Economic data: wage growth and jobs

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that in the December 2024 quarter, wages grew 0.7%, down from 0.9% in the September quarter. This was the slowest quarterly wage growth since March 2022. For the year to December, wages grew 3.2%, down from 4.1% in the year to June 2024.

    In the December quarter, inflation was up 0.2% and up 2.4% for the year to December. So wage growth exceeded inflation by 0.5% in the December quarter and 0.8% for the year, but it had exceeded inflation by 0.7% in the September quarter.

    The ABS said 44,000 jobs were added in January, but the unemployment rate rose 0.1% from December to 4.1% owing to a 0.2% increase in the participation rate. The employment population ratio (the percentage of eligible Australians that are employed) rose 0.1% to 65.6%, a record high.

    German election

    I am covering Sunday’s German federal election for The Poll Bludger. The election was held seven months early owing to a breakdown in the governing coalition of centre-left SPD, Greens and pro-business FDP.

    Exit polls and pre-election polls have the conservative CDU/CSU leading, with the far-right AfD in second place and the SPD lagging in third. The final outcome should be known by this afternoon AEDT.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Labor crashes to a 55–45 deficit in Resolve despite interest rate cut – https://theconversation.com/labor-crashes-to-a-55-45-deficit-in-resolve-despite-interest-rate-cut-250150

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –