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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: How scenario planning could help Canadian policymakers deal with American political chaos

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kevin Quigley, Scholarly Director of the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, Dalhousie University

    One of the most bizarre aspects of the United States presidential election has been how difficult it’s been to determine the truth — particularly due to Republican Donald Trump’s candidacy — and if the truth even matters.

    As former Trump advisor Anthony Scaramucci once noted about the former president: “Don’t take him literally, take him symbolically.” This advice wasn’t very helpful.

    The difficulty in determining what is true is symptomatic of the high levels of uncertainty that Canadian policymakers are confronted with regularly in their dealings with their American counterparts.

    Voters in the most powerful nation on Earth — and Canada’s neighbour and largest trading partner — are choosing between two starkly different choices on the ballot, and Canada must be attentive and adaptive across a number of policy areas.

    Three-part process

    Scenario planning provides an effective way to address such high levels of uncertainty. The method can generate difficult and radically different descriptions of the future by way of challenging participants, requiring imaginative interventions and overcoming stability and optimism biases.

    At the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance at Dalhousie University, our team used this method extensively throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, including with members of the tourism industry in early 2021. The method proved to be an effective tool for these organizations in planning for the 2021 tourism season in light of the uncertainty posed by COVID-19.

    There are typically three parts to the approach, divided by sessions. The first session establishes the goals the participants wish to achieve in light of their unique challenges and timelines. Goals vary but usually address some aspect of the medium-term success of the organization. Timelines can be anything from a few months down the road to decades from now.

    Motivating factors

    The group then discusses drivers, which are highly impactful forces beyond their immediate control that will shape the scenarios. Two drivers are selected, often based on supply-and-demand concepts.

    During the second session, participants describe four scenarios based on the two drivers, answering questions that include:

    1. What does this scenario look like?

    2. How would we arrive at this scenario?

    3. What are the underlying causes of the scenario?

    4. What are the critical failures and opportunities in this scenario?

    Finally, the group names the scenario. The four scenarios are deliberately intended to be different and extreme in order to push people beyond their comfort zones.

    At the third session, participants establish how they’re going to judge policies and operational changes knowing that any one of the four scenarios could materialize.

    Trade, economy

    In terms of scenario planning for the Canada-U.S. relationship, Canadian policymakers could consider U.S. trade policies as the first driver (liberal trade policies vs. protectionist policies) and the state of the American economy as the second driver (it either booms or it sinks into a deep recession).

    Organized as a two-by-two matrix, policymakers can explore four plausible future scenarios: either liberal or protectionist trade policies, during either an economic boom or a recession.

    Within these four scenarios, policymakers can develop criteria by which to evaluate Canadian policies knowing that any one of these four scenarios could materialize.

    There are important things to consider at the design stage.

    To start, it can be time-consuming to organize and execute the sessions. You can run remarkably simple and helpful sessions in a day, or extremely involved ones over several months.

    The number of participants is flexible. Usually it involves a small to medium-sized group, but individuals can use the two-by-two matrix to think through problems over lunch.

    Who’s there matters. We tend to invite people who represent different parts of an organization or sector. That provides legitimacy to the process and satisfies a sense of fair play, and this approach can also help participants accept the conclusions and communicate them broadly.

    At the same time, having representatives from each part of the organization can lead to turf wars. It can serve to reinforce existing institutional arrangements rather than challenge, change and in some cases abolish them. Bringing in guest speakers to share best practices from other jurisdictions can help to discuss difficult issues.

    The Ambassador Bridge, spanning the Detroit River between Windsor and Detroit, in December 2021. The trade and economic relationship between the U.S. and Canada provides lots of material for scenario planning for Canadian policymakers.
    THE CANADIAN PRESS/Fred Thornhill

    Embracing diversity

    Scenario planning exercises also favour elite groups — experts, company executives and clever high flyers who are skilled at imaginative thinking. Turning to these elite groups can be at odds with equity, diversity, inclusion and accessibility principles.

    Diverse sources of information can challenge participants to think differently and also help participants to understand the impacts of scenarios to different communities.

    Participants also need to be able to speak frankly. Values may differ, and attempts by participants to avoid saying anything controversial can crowd out more nuanced thoughts.

    Generally, egalitarian dynamics lead to consensus-seeking solutions. But this doesn’t always result in more radical transformations. In some respects, the four possible scenarios compel participants to consider quite different views, which can be helpful.

    Diverse participants in scenario planning sessions can challenge people to think differently.
    (Shutterstock)

    All of this makes discussing how to judge new programs at the third session more challenging and important.

    One way to address these challenges is to have a broad way to discuss and evaluate each strategy. Typically, we examine different parts of the strategy — how an organization gathers information, sets standards and changes behaviour internally — and different criteria by which to judge the strategies (efficiency, fairness and accountability and stability and learning).

    An experienced moderator with some professional distance from the group can help to keep the conversation on time, on subject and challenge participants when conventional wisdom starts to creep in.

    Public agencies are premised on a command-and-control dynamic, but policymakers increasingly need tools and skills that allow them to anticipate, address and communicate risks over which they have limited control.

    The U.S. election and its aftermath in the weeks and months to come are a salient and consequential example. Scenario planning allows policymakers to challenge their assumptions and have difficult conversations in light of quickly changing events in order to seize opportunities and reduce vulnerabilities.

    Kevin Quigley received funding from the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, Change Lab Action Research Network, and SSHRC for the work discussed in this article.

    – ref. How scenario planning could help Canadian policymakers deal with American political chaos – https://theconversation.com/how-scenario-planning-could-help-canadian-policymakers-deal-with-american-political-chaos-242335

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Friends like these: What a second Trump term may mean for the CDC, and how it affects Canada

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kevin Quigley, Scholarly Director of the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, Dalhousie University

    Should Donald Trump be re-elected on Tuesday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is likely facing a major shake-up. Many Republicans were frustrated by the CDC’s performance during the pandemic. Project 2025, authored by leading Republicans with ties to Trump, describes the CDC as incompetent and arrogant.

    In fact, no matter who wins the United States presidential election on Nov. 5, the Trump administration’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic is a cautionary tale for Canada.

    While there is significant and justifiable criticism to be leveled at Trump about his administration’s handling of the pandemic in the early stages, as former chief medical advisor to the president, Dr. Anthony Fauci noted to Congress in 2024, the U.S. health system is not designed for an effective co-ordinated response to a health crisis.

    Trump and the CDC

    There was clearly a disconnect between Trump and the CDC during the pandemic. For weeks in early 2020, President Trump had described the threat as low risk; he said that the situation was under control in the U.S. and that only a few cases had been reported.

    While the president was on a return flight from India, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC, announced that the situation in the U.S. was about to change quickly and severely. Officials say that Trump was very upset by the announcement and concerned about potential lockdowns causing panic and disruption to financial markets.

    Throughout the early stages of the pandemic, the actions of the CDC sparked a high degree of politicization. The Trump administration was criticized for interfering with the CDC’s operations and censoring internal experts. Disagreements between federal and state political leaders and public health experts led to inconsistencies in public health messaging, reporting, enforcement of directives and timing of public health restrictions.

    The CDC itself was not above criticism. The agency’s infrastructure had been neglected for decades, and years of declining funding resulted in insufficient preparations for a possible pandemic. The CDC had also been criticized for being too insular and academic.

    The CDC made key mistakes, particularly regarding surveillance and testing. It was criticized for underestimating the threat of the virus and overestimating its ability to design, manufacture and distribute a test quickly.

    Rapid responses are crucial during such events, and the early stages of the U.S.’s pandemic response provides salient lessons for Canada, both about its relationship with the U.S. and to global threats more generally.

    Pre-event planning is necessary, but audits and world rankings of emergency preparedness can be unreliable. In 2019, Johns Hopkins University ranked the U.S. as the best prepared country in the world to address a health crisis. The pandemic demonstrated that it was not.

    Canada needs to establish a strong and independent capacity to assess health threats. Trump’s early handling of the pandemic has been widely criticized, yet the Canadian government’s speaking points in the early stages were the same: the virus was low risk. It was only when the CDC and the World Health Organization increased its threat assessment that Canada followed suit.

    Lessons from the pandemic

    Borders can re-assert themselves. Despite decades of global political and economic agreements that saw a freer flow of goods, services and people, many western governments were unable or unwilling to assume the risks associated with letting those from other jurisdictions cross their borders, and as such, imposed strict rules to prevent non-citizens from entering. This aggressive stance was ironic and unforeseen, as during previous public health crises such as the H1N1 flu episode in 2009-10, many governments underscored that closing borders had little impact on disease spread.

    The weaknesses of supply chains were highlighted as the global economy shut down in March 2020. Canada’s Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland described competition for medical supplies and personal protective equipment (PPE) as resembling the “wild west.” Shipment delays, order shortages, trade restrictions and defective or contaminated items prevented governments from effectively procuring supplies.

    Global manufacturing capabilities for vaccines were below what was needed, with only about a dozen countries able to produce COVID-19 vaccines early on, including the U.S. More than any other country, the U.S. enabled the rapid development and production of the vaccine, highlighting Canada’s considerable dependence on the U.S. Canada has since funded vaccine manufacturing initiatives, but the investments have produced little to-date.

    The adage “When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold” applies nowhere more than in Canada. Should Trump be re-elected, the CDC will likely exist on a smaller budget with a reduced role internationally. This will increase Canadian vulnerabilities.

    Whatever the criticisms, the CDC has more capacity and influence than any other health agency in the world. If Canada cannot depend on strong and co-ordinated response from the U.S. administration during a health crisis, Canada has to be better prepared to adapt. Lessons from the pandemic provide a powerful to-do list.

    Kevin Quigley is the Scholarly Director of the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, an independent, non-partisan research institute located at Dalhousie University.

    – ref. Friends like these: What a second Trump term may mean for the CDC, and how it affects Canada – https://theconversation.com/friends-like-these-what-a-second-trump-term-may-mean-for-the-cdc-and-how-it-affects-canada-242673

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Quincy Jones mastered the art of arrangement, transforming simple tunes into epic soundscapes

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jose Valentino Ruiz, Associate Professsor of Music Business and Entrepreneurship, University of Florida

    Quincy Jones left his indelible touch on some of the 20th century’s most iconic albums. Arnold Turner/Getty Images for Netflix

    On the sleeve notes of some of the most memorable and best-selling albums of all time, you’ll find the words “Produced and arranged by Quincy Jones.”

    It was a hallmark of quality.

    Jones, who died on Nov. 3, 2024, at the age of 91, transformed our understanding of musical arrangement. His work spanned decades and genres, from jazz and pop to hip-hop and film scoring. He worked with pop icons like Michael Jackson, Frank Sinatra, Ray Charles and Aretha Franklin, and also collaborated with lesser-known artists such as Lesley Gore and Tevin Campbell.

    Each of his projects, collaborations and forays into new genres redefined what it meant to arrange music.

    As a music business and entrepreneurship professor, I’ve studied and taught Jones’ techniques, which I hope can inspire the next generation of musicians.

    A master musical architect

    Musical arrangement might seem like an abstract concept.

    Simply put, it’s the art of deciding how a song unfolds. While a composer writes the melody and harmony, an arranger shapes the experience, choosing which instruments play when, how textures build and where dynamics shift.

    Arrangement transforms a song from notes on paper into a fully realized piece of art that resonates with listeners. In essence, an arranger acts as a musical architect, designing the structure of a song to tell a compelling story.

    Jones brought a visionary approach to arranging. He wasn’t merely filling in the gaps around a melody with a drum beat here and a horn section there; he was crafting a musical narrative that gave each instrument a purpose, guiding listeners through an emotional journey.

    From his early work in the 1950s and 1960s with jazz greats like Count Basie and R&B star Ray Charles, to his blockbuster productions with Michael Jackson, Jones saw arrangement as a tool to guide listeners from one musical moment to the next.

    Elevating voices

    His work on “Sinatra at the Sands” is but one example.

    Jones created lush, energetic big-band arrangements that perfectly complemented Sinatra’s smooth, warm voice. The choice of brass swells and the dynamic shifts amplified Sinatra’s charisma, turning the album into a lively, almost-cinematic experience. Unlike many arrangements, which often stay in the background, Jones’ took center stage, blending harmoniously with Sinatra’s vocals while adding depth and excitement to the entire performance.

    In Ray Charles’ “I Can’t Stop Loving You,” Jones used orchestral swells and background vocals to bring out the soul in Charles’ voice, creating a richly emotional experience for listeners. By intelligently pairing Charles’ gospel-tinged vocals with a polished, orchestral arrangement, Jones captured the tension between sorrow and resilience – a demonstration of his ability to communicate complex emotions through arrangement.

    Ray Charles, left, shares a laugh with Quincy Jones in 2004.
    George Pimentel/WireImage for NARAS via Getty Images

    Turning songs into stories

    Jones’ skill at using arrangement as a storytelling device was exemplified by his collaboration with Jackson.

    Albums like “Thriller” and “Off the Wall” showcased Jones’ knack for inventively layering sounds. On “Thriller,” Jones combined electronic and acoustic elements to create a multidimensional soundscape that set a new standard for production.

    His ability to incorporate textures, background vocals and unique instrument choices – such as horror actor Vincent Price’s iconic narration on the song “Thriller” – transformed pop music, setting the stage for future producers to experiment with storytelling in their own arrangements.

    In Jackson’s “Bad,” Jones pushed the boundaries of genre by blending funk rhythms with pop structures, giving Jackson’s music a timeless appeal.

    The title track’s arrangement has layers of rhythm and harmony that build a feeling of tension and power, enhancing Jackson’s message of confidence and defiance. Each instrument and background vocal in “Bad” serves a purpose, creating a sound that is bold, exciting and engaging.

    Lessons for educators

    For educators teaching music production and commercial music, Jones’ approach provides a gold mine of practical lessons.

    First, his commitment to genre fusion teaches students the importance of versatility. Jones’ career demonstrates that blending jazz, pop, funk and even classical elements can create something innovative and accessible. Students can learn to break free from the constraints of single-genre production, seeing instead how various musical styles can work together to create fresh, engaging sounds.

    Quincy Jones, pictured here with Michael Jackson, won 28 Grammys during his career.
    Chris Walter/WireImage via Getty Images

    Second, Jones’ emphasis on storytelling through arrangement offers students a framework for making music that resonates.

    In my classes, I encourage students to ask themselves: How does each musical element support the emotional arc of the song? By studying Jones’ arrangements, students learn to think of themselves as storytellers, not just sound engineers. They can begin to see arrangement as an art form in itself – one that has the power to captivate audiences by drawing them into a musical journey.

    Finally, Jones’ work shows the power of collaboration. His willingness to work across genres and with a variety of artists – each bringing unique perspectives – demonstrates the value of open-mindedness and adaptability.

    His life’s work serves as a reminder that music is more than just sound; it’s an experience shaped by careful, intentional decisions, with every sound and silence in a piece of music serving a purpose.

    Jose Valentino Ruiz is the CEO of JV Music Enterprises.

    – ref. Quincy Jones mastered the art of arrangement, transforming simple tunes into epic soundscapes – https://theconversation.com/quincy-jones-mastered-the-art-of-arrangement-transforming-simple-tunes-into-epic-soundscapes-242877

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canada and churches have moral obligations for the reparations of missing and disappeared Indigenous children: Final Report

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Frank Deer, Professor, Faculty of Education, University of Manitoba

    Independent Special Interlocutor Kimberly Murray has released her final report after two years of examining the issue of missing and disappeared Indigenous children and unmarked burials sites at residential schools in Canada.

    During the ceremony last week in Gatineau, Que., Murray said governments do not often implement recommendations given on such reports. So she opted to identify 42 “legal, moral and ethical obligations” for governments, churches and other institutions. These are proposals on how to make holistic reparations to Indigenous Peoples.

    Murray emphasized that the children were “victims of enforced disappearance.”

    Since the 1870s and continuing for more than 150 years, over 150,000 First Nations, Métis and Inuit children were taken from their families and forced to attend church-run, government-funded residential schools. The National Centre for Truth and Reconciliation has documented more than 4,100 deaths of children at the schools.

    After potential unmarked graves were identified at former residential school sites, the Canadian government appointed Murray to make recommendations on unmarked graves and burial sites.

    The report, “Sites of Truth, Sites of Conscience” focuses on aspects of the Indian Residential School experience: unaccounted missing children, unmarked grave sites, the roles of government and churches in the Indian Residential School genocide and failure to maintain records of the deaths and burials of deceased children.

    The report centres Indigenous strategies for research and advances a framework of reparations to “support the search for and recovery of the missing and disappeared children and unmarked burials.” It is an extension of the work of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada (TRC) whose final report devoted an entire volume toward missing children and unmarked burials. The newest report is even more bold than the Final Report of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada.

    The TRC report observed that “the most basic of questions about missing children — Who died? Why did they die? Where are they buried? — have never been addressed or comprehensively documented by the Canadian Government.”

    Since the TRC report was released in 2015, efforts to investigate this issue of missing children and unmarked graves has increased significantly.

    CBC News report: Special interlocutor on Unmarked Graves and Burial Sites issues final report.

    Reconciliation and reparations

    Murray explores the issue of genocide in the Indian Residential School system in ways that indict the Canadian government and other institutions of crimes.

    The report says Canada must refer to “the enforced disappearance of children,” as a “crime against humanity” and the issue needs to be taken to the International Criminal Court. It further states that the “federal government and other institutions have worked harder to protect perpetrators than they ever did to protect Indigenous children, families, and communities,” and that Canada has embraced a culture of “settler amnesia and willful forgetting.”

    In support of this indictment, Murray shows how the government and church were not only responsible for acts of omission in that somehow failed to protect Indigenous children in their care. Instead, they were acts of commission: deliberately created situations in which Indigenous children in their care were severely harmed.

    Murray refers to this as forced disappearances — when the liberty of Indigenous children is taken away and their fate was concealed.

    In addition, the Independent Special Interlocutor also focuses on, among other things, our moral and ethical obligations as foundational frames for reparations.

    A moral framework

    Murray put forth 42 obligations that reflect the morally and ethically centred responsibilities of governments, churches and other institutions.

    These moral and ethical responsibilities inform the reparations that Murray articulates in her report.

    These responsibilities and obligations include:

    • Calls for long-term financial support of investigations into missing and disappeared Indigenous children and Indian Residential School burial sites

    • Support for survivors

    • The recording of their stories

    Core values

    Underlining the report is a moral principal that efforts to find missing children and unmarked graves must be Indigenous-led.

    These moral principles, this foundation for action, articulated by Murray, can provide a compelling rationale that may help change attitudes and action.

    The recent report puts forth several moral and ethical principles which we need to consider.

    One of the report’s powerful statements is:

    “Children must be cared for in life and after death.”

    This might seem to some a simple point that is obvious and even unnecessary. However, the distance between such important declarations and the policies of Canadian governments and institutions has been vast.

    That this particular principle refers to the importance of care “after death” ought to be familiar to any of us who’ve lost loved ones. However, stating it clearly here strengthens the point that government and other institutions have obligations to children who died in their care.

    Another important principle from the report is that “search and recovery work is sacred.”

    The need to discover who died, the reasons why they died, and the location of their remains is one so connected to the emotional well-being of living descendants and fellow community members that it is a spiritual journey.

    This is why the search and recovery processes must be Indigenous-led.

    This report, like the TRC’s and the final report of the National Inquiry into Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls, contains demands for action that should be accepted and acted upon by governments and institutions.

    The moral and ethical principles that inform those demands can be as important for informing change. It is in these principles that we may find moral guidance and direction toward righteousness.

    We may also find, if we’re paying attention, our humanity.

    Frank Deer receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. Canada and churches have moral obligations for the reparations of missing and disappeared Indigenous children: Final Report – https://theconversation.com/canada-and-churches-have-moral-obligations-for-the-reparations-of-missing-and-disappeared-indigenous-children-final-report-242560

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘I can make a band play like a singer sings’: Quincy Jones shaped our listening for seven decades

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leigh Carriage, Senior Lecturer in Music, Southern Cross University

    The legendary composer, musical arranger and producer Quincy Jones has died at 91.

    Over his long career, Jones arranged and produced for a broad range of genres. His work blended the traditions of jazz, popular, world music and Western classical music.

    This was perhaps most present in his 1989 album Back on the Block. It features jazz improvisation, Zulu language, gospel and rapping. The album won seven Grammy Awards, including album of the year.

    But even more than his own albums, Jones will be familiar to listeners across decades of popular music, for his work as a producer and arranger with legendary artists such as Ella Fitzgerald, Barry White, Chaka Khan, Frank Sinatra and Michael Jackson.

    Finding his feet in jazz

    Jones was born in Chicago in 1933, right in the middle of the depression. Around 11 years old, Jones found music.

    In high school, Jones sang in a capella groups and played in school bands on the trumpet.

    By 13, he was beginning to demonstrate a strong musical ability and musicianship skills, writing arrangements for his bands.

    When Jones was a teenager, his family moved from Chicago to Seattle. In these early years, Jones had two pivotal mentors. One was the jazz trumpeter Clark Terry; the other was his contemporary and friend Ray Charles.

    By the late 1940s, Jones was working as a trumpeter and as composer and arranger for bandleaders such as Dizzy Gillespie and Lionel Hampton.

    A jazz big band bandleader in the 1950s, Jones quickly became a sought-after arranger.

    Over his career, he worked on numerous jazz recordings with Count Basie, Duke Ellington, Tony Bennett, Sarah Vaughan (including a great swingin’ arrangement of the song
    Witchcraft), Frank Sinatra (with popular favourites Fly Me To The Moon and Mack the Knife) and the Dinah Washington recording They Didn’t Believe Me with the Quincy Jones Orchestra.

    The move into pop

    By the 1960s Jones began transitioning into popular music.

    In 1961 Jones became the first African American in the position of vice president at a major label, Mercury Records. In 1963 Jones selected and produced Lesley Gore’s hit song It’s My Party from more than 200 demos.

    Elements of the previous decades expertise in jazz arranging are apparent with touches of brass and reharmonising (or modifying the harmonic structure – the chords) of a song. Jones’ production approach here was to double-track the melody (duplicating, and placing the second track with a slight delay), enhancing the richness of Gore’s voice.

    In 1968, Jones received his first Oscar nomination for Best Original Score for the soundtrack to In Cold Blood. The following year his composing and arranging versatility was demonstrated when he wrote the music for The Italian Job.

    In 1979 Jones began working with Michael Jackson on the album Off The Wall.

    By the 1980s, Jones was receiving high acclaim and success immersed in many diverse projects including Jackson’s Thriller (1982) and Bad (1987), in which Jones masterfully fuses pop with rhythm and blues, rock and funk.

    His innovation in producing was in his broad understanding of multiple genres of music, adoption of technology and his constant musical invention.

    ‘A great gift’

    In 1985 Jones and Michael Omartian were asked to produce the song We Are The World, written by Lionel Richie and Jackson. It was released to worldwide acclaim.

    Jones conducted the recording and left a sign on the studio door: “Check your egos at the door”.

    Also in 1985, Jones wrote the original score and produced the music for Steven Spielberg’s The Colour Purple, including the song Miss Celie’s Blues, written collaboratively with Jones, Rod Temperton and Richie. The score and Miss Celie’s Blues each received another Oscar nomination for Jones.

    Jones was requested on many large projects as a conductor. A great example is Handel’s Messiah: A Soulful Celebration (1992) conducted by Jones. This album featured some of the music industry’s best arrangers Mervyn Warren and Shelton Kilby as well as a stellar list of vocalists such as Gladys Knight, Take 6, Sounds of Blackness, Pattie Austin, Johnny Mathis, Chaka Khan and Al Jarreau.

    In an interview with culture journalist David Marchese in 2018, Jones was asked what he was proudest of in his musical career. He told Marchese:

    That anything I can feel, I can notate musically. Not many people can do that. I can make a band play like a singer sings. That’s what arranging is, and it’s a great gift.

    Beyond his own work as an artist, Jones undertook humanitarian work, mentored new generations of musicians, and was often a commentator on jazz history or the significance of African Americans in the entertainment and recording industry.

    Jones’ artistic innovation and highly effective collaborations, spanning a 70-year career, has made an indelible contribution to music and culture globally.

    Leigh Carriage does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘I can make a band play like a singer sings’: Quincy Jones shaped our listening for seven decades – https://theconversation.com/i-can-make-a-band-play-like-a-singer-sings-quincy-jones-shaped-our-listening-for-seven-decades-242813

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What Kamala Harris’ Converse All-Stars tell us about how shoes shape our identity

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra Sherlock, Lecturer, School of Fashion and Textiles, RMIT University

    Like most public figures, Kamala Harris adapts her footwear to different occasions. While her wardrobe includes traditional choices such as formal black heels, it was her appearance in Converse Chuck Taylor All-Stars on the February 2021 cover of Vogue that drew particular notice.

    As Democratic nominee for president, these sneakers once again became a focal point of her campaign.

    Through her choice of sneakers, Harris signals a new era in female political leadership – and demonstrates how footwear choices can shape a leader’s identity and ability to connect with voters.

    Embracing all-American values

    We may know we shouldn’t judge a book by its cover, but all politicians – especially women – know that we inevitably do. The appearance of others is how we categorise people to make sense of the world and our place in it.

    Clothing is a key medium through which we identify ourselves and others. Shoes are particularly layered with meaning: when we observe someone’s footwear we are using them to know whether or not we identify with that person.

    This is something that politicians and their teams know and manipulate to win votes.

    One famous scene that illustrates this beautifully is Brooklyn Democratic congressman David Norris’s concession speech in the movie The Adjustment Bureau (2011).

    Played by Matt Damon, the character reveals the significant work that goes into curating the perfect outfit:

    Shiny shoes, we associate with high-priced lawyers and bankers. If you want to get a working man’s vote, you need to scuff up your shoes a little bit, but you can’t scuff them up so much that you alienate the lawyers and the bankers […] So what is the proper scuffing amount? Do you know, we actually paid a consultant $7,300 to tell us that THIS is the perfect amount of scuffing?

    While Harris’ Chuck Taylors generally look pristine, she is transparent about her awareness of the style’s significance to potential voters, explaining in a 2020 interview:

    Whatever your background or whatever language your grandmother spoke, we all at some point or another had our Chucks, right?

    An all-American shoe worn by people of all ages, races, genders and sexualities, the relatively inexpensive and utilitarian Converse All-Star is a social leveller – a smart choice for a politician wishing to identify with a broad electorate.

    As others have identified, Harris’ choice of sneakers signals her American values and no-nonsense attitude.

    In these shoes, she’s ready for anything.

    Shoes change us

    Interviewed in 2018, Harris’ relationship with the sneakers goes back several years and certainly appears authentic.

    Whether the initial choice to wear them was hers – or, like Norris, that of a team of consultants – is now irrelevant. Through the process of wear, shoes change us.

    Not only do they affect how we move through the world physically, but they also shape how we relate to others socially.

    Anyone who has selected a particular pair of shoes for an interview or special occasion will be familiar with their transformative effect, one that helps you to feel the part.

    Identity can be understood as something that is performed. When a performance is received as convincing, we become the part we are playing and the identity is incorporated into our sense of self.

    Harris’ shoes are relatable. In them, she is perceived as – and may therefore feel – approachable and down-to-earth.

    On the campaign trail, the social interactions they afford increase her ability to relate to and connect with other people. Through this process, her performance and her identity become one.

    One might say she has become her shoes; in doing so, she has come to embody the all-American values they represent. And at only 5 feet 4 ¼ inches, the choice not to compensate for her height with heels exudes a self-assurance more women are discovering.

    This woman knows who she is and is reassuringly at ease with herself.

    Finding authenticity

    Aside from ongoing speculation about Trump’s height and whether he wears elevating insoles, his choice of footwear has attracted comparatively less attention, as is often the case for male politicians.

    According to Footwear News, he rarely diverts from black leather dress shoes, signifying his corporate associations. This didn’t stop Trump launching a line of gold sneakers, named “Never Surrender High-Tops” and priced at US$399 in February. A new design, with the words “Fight, fight, fight”, was released after the July assassination attempt.

    This represents quite a different use of shoes to connect with voters.

    In an era when authenticity in politics is increasingly valued, Harris’ footwear choice represents more than a campaign strategy. It reflects changing expectations around power and leadership.

    Her Converse sneakers challenge the notion that women must literally elevate themselves to command authority.

    Instead, they suggest a new kind of political performance where power comes not from height or traditional status symbols, but from the ability to connect genuinely with voters.

    Alexandra Sherlock does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What Kamala Harris’ Converse All-Stars tell us about how shoes shape our identity – https://theconversation.com/what-kamala-harris-converse-all-stars-tell-us-about-how-shoes-shape-our-identity-242777

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Primary care involves more than GPs. A new review shows how patients can better access care

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Duckett, Honorary Enterprise Professor, School of Population and Global Health, and Department of General Practice and Primary Care, The University of Melbourne

    Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock

    Australians today are more likely than previous generations to live with complex and chronic diseases, such as diabetes, heart disease and depression.

    This means they’re more likely to need health care from a variety of different providers, such as nurses, podiatrists, psychologists and physiotherapists, as well as GPs. This is known as “multidisciplinary care”. It works best when the skills of all these professions are available to the patient in a co-ordinated way.

    But the roles of health professions, and the way they’re funded, have been frozen in legislation and policy for decades. Any change has been incremental and disjointed. It has mostly involved adding more items to the Medicare schedule, with each professional practising separately.

    The result has been greater inequity of access. Because fewer than half of allied health fee-for-service visits are bulk-billed, most patients pay almost A$70 for each consultation – and sometimes much more. Those who can’t afford the out-of-pocket costs and can’t find a bulk-billing practitioner miss out.

    To assess how the government can remove barriers to team-based care and get health professions working to their full potential, or their full “scope of practice”, last year the government commissioned an independent review.

    The final report, released yesterday, sets a new path for the primary care workforce. This could make multidisciplinary care within reach of all Australians.

    Using health-care workers’ full potential

    The review involved extensive consultation, including on two issues papers. The report itself incorporates feedback from the consultations, including sceptical comments, reflecting a divergence of opinions.

    Reflected the report’s title, Unleashing the Potential of our Health Workforce, its main emphasis is to change the rules and regulations imposed by state and federal governments. These stymie health professionals and limit their ability to use their full skills and knowledge to manage their patients’ care.

    Over recent decades, health professionals’ education has improved. So professionals are capable of doing more than previously. Yet the rules and regulations have not advanced and so inhibit professionals from making those skills and knowledge available.

    The review argues this contributes to career dissatisfaction, and to people leaving various health professions, exacerbating workforce shortages.

    The review proposes a new way of documenting and describing what can be done by a profession through what it calls a National Skills and Capability Framework and Matrix.

    As with many other recommendations, the review points to where this is done already internationally and how it can nestle into other policies and frameworks to aid implementation.

    Health-care workers aren’t using all their skills.
    DC studio/Shutterstock

    To the disappointment of most allied health professions, the review does not recommend more Medicare payments for them to practise independently.

    Rather, the review recommends payment to general practices for them to expand multi-disciplinary teams. This would see professionals working together, rather than in competition or isolation.

    The review also recommends changing the rules about referrals by health professionals, allowing qualified health professionals to refer directly to non-GP medical specialists in similar areas. This means your psychologist could refer you directly to a psychiatrist if needed, or your physiotherapist could refer you directly to an orthopaedic surgeon rather than needing to go back to your GP.

    This will weaken the role of the GP as a “gatekeeper” and also potentially undermine the more holistic care that GPs provide. But from a patient’s point of view, eliminating the intermediate step saves them out-of-pocket costs.

    An important recommendation recognises that the health system evolves and rules and regulations need to evolve too. It therefore supplements its recommendations for changes now, with an approach for continuous review through an independent mechanism. This would provide evidence-based advice and recommendations about:

    • significant workforce innovation
    • emerging health care roles
    • workforce models that involve significant change to scope.

    When will we see change?

    The review sets out a loose timeline for implementation, described as short, medium and long term. And it assigns responsibility for each element of its recommendations to appropriate bodies and governments.

    As almost all the recommendations require legislative change, and many require agreement between the Commonwealth and the states, it’s unlikely any of the changes will take effect this financial year.

    The review recommends change be implemented in a systematic, evidence-based and safe way. Implementation would start in areas of greatest need such as in rural and remote Australia and also in practices most ready for the change, such as Aboriginal Controlled Community Health Organisations or Victoria’s Community Health Centres.

    The review recommends changes to the referral process.
    voronaman/Shutterstock

    In releasing what he referred to as a “landmark” report, Health Minister Mark Butler noted the complexity of implementation, which would require collaborative action with states and territories. He noted the need for further consultation, but nevertheless took a supportive tone.

    Can this review prompt real health reform?

    Overall, the review charts a middle course between letting health professionals roam free and the tight and inappropriate rules and regulations which constrain patient care today. It also sets out the practical steps to achieve its goals.

    The one downside of the report is the emphasis on harmonisation of state and territory approaches. This would replace the current approach, where each state and territory decides, for example, on what vaccines can be administered by which professionals and what pharmacists can dispense without a medical practitioner’s prescription.

    One of the benefits of a federation is the potential for state- and territory-based innovation and cross-border learning. Harmonisation will limit that experimenting, and may lead to more of the stasis seen in health workforce policy in the past.

    Stephen Duckett was consulted by the Independent Reviewer during the course of the Review and commented on the Review’s Issues Papers and Draft Final Report

    – ref. Primary care involves more than GPs. A new review shows how patients can better access care – https://theconversation.com/primary-care-involves-more-than-gps-a-new-review-shows-how-patients-can-better-access-care-242698

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What to expect on Election Day: history could be made, or we’re in for a long wait (and plenty of conspiracies)

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University

    As Americans vote in one of the most important presidential elections in generations, the country teeters on a knife edge. In the battleground states that will likely decide the result, the polling margins between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump are razor thin.

    These tiny margins, and the general confusion around American politics today, make it impossible to predict the outcome.

    The polls might well be wrong: the electorate may have shifted dramatically since 2020 in ways that will only reveal themselves after the election. The reality is we do not know much of anything for sure, and we may never be able to untangle all of the threads that make up the knot of American politics.

    After two assassination attempts on Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden’s dramatic decision to leave the race in August, it is entirely possible this election will throw up more big surprises. But as things stand, there are three broad possibilities for what will happen on Election Day.

    All of them throw up their own challenges – for the United States, and for the world.

    Possibility 1: the return of Trump

    Trump may make history and win back the White House. Only Grover Cleveland has managed to get elected a second time as president (in 1892) after suffering a defeat four years earlier.

    If Trump does win, it could be via a similar path to the one he took in 2016 – by once again sundering the “blue wall” and winning the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

    This feat will likely mean his campaign tactic of mobilising men has worked.

    A Trump victory would represent the culmination of a generational project of the American right. A second Trump administration would be very different from the first – the movement behind Trump is more organised, focused and cognisant of the mistakes of the first Trump White House. It would also face considerably weakened democratic guardrails.

    The implementation of Trump’s radical agenda, alongside some or all of the broader far-right agenda detailed in the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, would radically reshape American life and create political and economic chaos.

    The rest of the world would have to reorient itself, once again, around Trump.

    Possibility 2: Harris makes history

    It is entirely possible Harris makes history – not only by beating Trump, but by becoming the first woman and woman of colour to win the US presidency.

    Like Trump, if Harris does win, it will likely be through one or more of the battleground states – in particular, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

    For Harris, victory will likely come via high turnout by women and voters of colour, particularly African-Americans, or through a combination of turnout by this core Democratic base and swing voters in key states like Pennsylvania.

    How Harris wins – and by how much – will be crucial, both to the immediate aftermath of the election and to the shape of a future Harris administration.

    A big question: can she win by enough to head off resistance by Trump and the movement behind him? As Australian writer Don Watson has noted, a Harris victory would likely be taken as an existential defeat by the MAGA movement.

    How Trump’s supporters react to such a defeat – and how US institutions react to their reaction – will be a critical test for American democracy.

    Possibility 3: too close to call

    This brings us to the third possibility: the polls are correct, and it’s such a tight race that the margins in the battleground states are in the thousands of votes, or even less.

    If it is that close, counting could take days. And there could be recounts after that.

    While conspiracies abound, a delay in the result like this would be an entirely predictable and normal outcome. In the United States, there isn’t one system for counting the votes; elections are run by the states on a county-by-county basis, and each state does it differently.

    Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, for example, legally can’t start counting mail-in votes until the polls open on Election Day.

    Then there is the supposed “blue shift” or “red mirage” that sometimes occurs on election night.

    There are now many ways to vote in the US – in person on Election Day, early voting before Election Day or by mail-in ballot. And the time it takes to count these different ballots can vary. So, it may appear as if one candidate is winning early in the night (say, when in-person votes are counted) only for their opponent to slowly turn the tide (when mail-in ballots are counted).

    In the 2020 election, this meant early Trump (“red”) leads were gradually lost to the Biden (“blue”) votes. Researchers found that counties won by Biden counted more slowly, on average, than those won by Trump – hence the so-called “blue shift”.

    This is an entirely normal – and legal – phenomenon. In Nevada, for instance, state law permits mail-in ballots to be counted four days after Election Day, so long as they were postmarked by Election Day.

    Trump and his surrogates like Steve Bannon, however, have exploited the differing times it takes to count votes to peddle baseless conspiracy theories, undermining Americans’ faith in their own democracy, and to incite unrest.

    By baselessly declaring victory in 2020 on the early “red mirage” tallies in key states before all the votes were counted, Trump was able to create what Bannon described as a “firestorm” – one that eventually led to the insurrection of January 6 2021.

    This could very well happen again. Bannon, in fact, has just been released from prison after serving four months for contempt of Congress, and could once again be a driving force in any post-election challenges by the Trump campaign.

    Trump, meanwhile, lied again this week when he said “these elections have to be, they have to be decided by 9 o’clock, 10 o’clock, 11 o’clock on Tuesday night” – laying the groundwork for further election conspiracies.

    Delays are normal – but fraught

    Trump has made it very clear he will not accept another election loss. If he does lose, he or his surrogates will attempt to weaponise similar conspiracy theories again. They may also use legal challenges to vote counts as they did in 2020 – both to contest the result and to once again mobilise the MAGA movement.

    In the event of close margins, it’s also possible some states will go to a recount.

    There are different rules for this in different states. To take one example, if the margin is within 0.5% in Georgia, a candidate can request a recount.

    In the 2020 presidential election, Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Georgia by 0.25%, which triggered a full hand recount of the votes. The Associated Press declared Biden the winner of the state more than two weeks after Election Day. A second recount was later reconfirmed by Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.

    Again, this is a normal part of the process. It ensures all votes are counted accurately and the result reflects the democratic will of the American people as best as the (admittedly, deeply flawed) system allows.

    Such a delay, legitimate as it would be, would elevate the already very real risk of further political violence and instability in the United States.

    None of these outcomes is inevitable. 2024 is not 2020; nor is it 2016. What happens next in America depends on the movement and interplay of so many tangled threads, it is impossible to see where old ones end and new ones might begin.

    In all of this, only one thing is certain. Whatever the result – and however long it takes to come through – the divisions and conspiracy theories that have destabilised American politics for so long will not be easily or quickly resolved. That knot may well prove impossible to untangle.

    Emma Shortis is Director of the International and Security Affairs program at The Australia Institute, an independent think tank.

    – ref. What to expect on Election Day: history could be made, or we’re in for a long wait (and plenty of conspiracies) – https://theconversation.com/what-to-expect-on-election-day-history-could-be-made-or-were-in-for-a-long-wait-and-plenty-of-conspiracies-242598

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A new campaign rewards young gamers on Roblox for engaging with the US election. What does it mean for global politics?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanne Orlando, Researcher: Digital Literacy and Digital Wellbeing, Western Sydney University

    Alex Photo Stock/Shutterstock

    If historical trends are anything to go by, most young people in the United States will not vote at this week’s presidential election. For example, at the 2016 presidential election, less than half of Americans aged 18 to 29 cast their ballot.

    But a new campaign on the hugely popular online gaming platform Roblox aims to encourage young people in the US to get out and exercise their democratic right on Tuesday.

    The “Virtual Vote” initiative is a partnership between Roblox game developers and a national political non-profit organisation called HeadCount.

    It has already engaged thousands of Roblox users – and it may mark the beginning of an entirely new way young people worldwide learn about and engage with real-life politics.

    The ultimate virtual universe

    Roblox is an online gaming platform where people can create an avatar, play a library of user-created games and socialise. Its developers describe it as the “the ultimate virtual universe”.

    It has roughly 79.5 million reported daily users globally and is valued at US$38 billion.

    The online gaming platform is especially popular among young people. However, it also poses a number of safety risks, including grooming and cyberbullying.

    Because of this, some governments have cracked down on Roblox. For example, earlier this year, it was banned in Turkey.

    Now the 2024 US presidential election has also entered the Roblox virtual gaming universe.

    From games to politics

    Virtual Vote is billed as the “first immersive civic engagement campaign”.

    Justin Hochberg, CEO of Virtual Brand Group (which develops games for Roblox) and the founder of Virtual Vote stated that his goal was simple:

    With 57% of gamers discovering global fashion, sports and entertainment brands while playing, this initiative meets Gen Z where they are to make a difference for the world’s biggest brand — #America.

    Virtual Vote was launched just four weeks ago in partnership with Headcount, a long-standing, not-for-profit youth voter engagement platform in the US. Other organisations – many of which are prominent in the online brand and content space – have also come on board.

    Players engage with Virtual Vote via popular games on Roblox, such as Livetopia, which has 4.7 billion user visits, and Karlie Kloss’s Fashion Klossette, which has 33.1 million total visits.

    Upon entering Virtual Vote, players meet Sam the Eagle, a guide who encourages them to check their voter registration status. Through Sam, players explore interactive maps showing state-specific voting rules and timelines.

    Virtual Vote is also a form of gaming and entertainment with big rewards and prizes for players who engage with it. Up for grabs is a trip to Hollywood to meet television presenter Jimmy Kimmel, VIP tickets to see musician Sabrina Carpenter, a snowboarding trip with champion American snowboarder Jamie Anderson, as well as limited-edition merchandise and content to play within Roblox.

    In the four weeks since its launch, Virtual Vote has had a strong response from Roblox users. More than 500,000 people have played the mini game so far – almost 4,000 of whom subsequently checked their voter registration status.

    Shaping political viewpoints online

    Platforms like Roblox, with their massive global youth audiences, are becoming increasingly important for shaping political views and real-world political engagement.

    Children and young adults immersed in these virtual worlds may be unknowingly absorbing information and perspectives that could influence their future voting decisions.

    Right now, the focus is on voter registration. However, given the huge impact it’s having, there is clear potential for such campaigns to become much more persuasive and biased.

    In future, we could see kids vying for rewards within online games or social media that may subtly shape their political viewpoints, which they then carry into how they vote as adults.

    This phenomenon has flown under the radar for the current US election. But its impact could be significant. Even more so since young people currently get so much of their news from social platforms.

    For example, the current trend on TikTok of women “cancelling out” the pro-Trump votes of their partners reinforces a gender binary for voting habits. These trending videos are fun, comedic, give minimal factual information. But some of them are getting up to two million views each.

    Similarly, election-themed videos – many of which have been identified as misinformation – on the popular online video platform YouTube have racked up millions of views in recent weeks.

    Exacerbating this situation is that young people often use social media, watch YouTube and play games on Roblox in combination. This can mean triple the impact of how these platforms can shape their political views.

    Online games and platforms are constantly shape-shifting and looking for new ways to engage with ever bigger global audiences.

    So wherever we live in the world, a campaign like Virtual Vote – seeking to achieve real-world political influence through an online video game platform – are important to pay attention to.

    Given the impact of Virtual Vote on so many young people, in such a short period of time, we can expect to see more political influence in their play. Shaping elections in the online space has just taken a new step.

    Joanne Orlando has received funding from the Office of the eSafety Commissioner.

    – ref. A new campaign rewards young gamers on Roblox for engaging with the US election. What does it mean for global politics? – https://theconversation.com/a-new-campaign-rewards-young-gamers-on-roblox-for-engaging-with-the-us-election-what-does-it-mean-for-global-politics-242901

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 31% of companies are not paying tax in Australia. How do they do it?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kerrie Sadiq, Professor of Taxation, QUT Business School, and ARC Future Fellow, Queensland University of Technology

    Seb Zurcher/Unsplash

    Large companies paid the Australian government a record A$100 billion in tax in the last year, a 17% increase on the previous year. But, over the same period, there were still 31% of large companies, operating here but not paying any tax.

    The Australian Taxation Office’s annual corporate tax transparency report released last week includes data on nearly 4,000 of Australia’s largest corporations.

    In its tenth year, the report is lauded by the government and ATO as a way to increase corporate accountability and reduce tax avoidance. But there is no detail on the tax practices of multinational entities, including how they interact with their offices around the world.

    In particular, there is little information about how 1,200 companies paid no tax.

    What the report tells us

    The transparency report provides data on corporations with income of $100 million or more and businesses which pay the petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT). This includes Australian public and foreign-owned corporate tax entities, as well as Australian-owned resident private companies.

    The report details the total income, taxable income, tax payable, and PRRT payable for all entities that meet the reporting threshold. Taxable income is simply assessable income minus deductions. Tax payable as a percentage of taxable income, can then be used to calculate an effective tax rate. The statutory corporate tax rate is 30%.

    A variation between an effective tax rate and the statutory tax rate is not evidence of tax avoidance. However, questions need to be asked about how profitable companies reduce their tax liability to zero.

    Zero liability can be achieved by deducting offsets and credits. For example, companies that conduct significant research and development are given tax breaks which reduce the amount of tax payable.

    Where a company has accounting losses or a tax loss because it has incurred more expenses than income, tax will be zero. These are legitimate reasons for paying no tax.

    But the limited information provided simply tells us how profitable a company is, the amount of tax deductions claimed against that profit, and the tax payable.

    What the report doesn’t tell us

    The transparency report reveals little about tax practices of multinational entities.

    The question remains what deductions are being claimed by corporations and tax entities. The ATO has this information but can only publish what the law allows them, which is limited.

    For multinationals, deductions will include dealings with overseas parts of the global entity, such as subsidiaries or the parent entity. These transactions create legitimate tax deductions.

    Common transactions include payments to overseas subsidiaries for services, royalty payments for intellectual property, and interest on overseas borrowings.

    In the case of petrol company Chevron, money was borrowed in the United States at around 1.2% and on lent to a related Australian entity at 9%.

    After a long court battle, about 5% of interest was allowed as a deduction, an amount significantly above the original interest rate. This gave Chevron in Australia a large tax deduction.

    It is through these types of transactions profits earned in Australia are shifted overseas. Current tax law allows this but requires the transaction, known as the transfer price, to be at arm’s length – that is, the price is agreed to between independent parties entering the same transaction.

    What is transfer pricing?

    Multinationals are global by nature and therefore logically maximise worldwide profits. Tax systems do not operate in the same way.

    Tax comes under domestic law which means transactions between parts of a global entity are recognised for tax purposes.

    If goods or services are sold by one part of the entity to another, an internal transaction occurs. For tax purposes the transaction is recognised as a deduction in one location and income in another. An Australian entity would pay a foreign party for things like marketing, and get a deduction for the expense.

    In recent years the ATO has settled marketing disputes with large multinationals including Google, BHP, Apple, Rio Tinto, ResMed and Microsoft.

    Where a deduction is allowed in a high tax jurisdiction, such as Australia, and income is included in the profits of a low tax jurisdiction, such as Singapore, the result is larger overall global profits.

    The tax system recognises the incentive for multinational entities to shift profits this way and requires transactions to be at a commercial or negotiated price. Determining the price however can be fraught and has led to numerous court cases and tax disputes.

    The tax transparency report reveals nothing about these types of transactions.

    Taxing multinationals in Australia

    In the last decade there have been moves to tax income in the location of the economic activity. The OECD has tried to stop profit shifting by companies, which erodes the tax base of high taxing jurisdictions, through its tax reform agenda.

    Further complicating the issue of transfer pricing is the question of whether there is any real activity in the countries where different parts of a multinational are located.

    Singapore is recognised for what are known as service hubs. These are places where various services such as sales negotiations are conducted and marketing occurs. Singapore also happens to have a headline corporate tax rate of 17%. This is often reduced to single digits after deals are entered into between taxpayers and the Singapore revenue authority.

    Intellectual property poses similar problems.

    These are increasingly valuable assets for multinational entities as they provide a unique edge in the market. We only need to think of Apple, Microsoft and Google to understand how valuable names, logos and designs are.

    By its very nature intellectual property has no physical location and can be owned anywhere in the world. Often, intellectual property is held in low or no tax countries.

    The transparency report includes no details about how much is transferred to these locations. This is where Australia’s proposed public country-by-country reporting may assist.

    Is the ATO’s corporate tax transparency report worthwhile?

    Australia should continue to strive to be a leader in corporate tax transparency.

    A two-step approach is required to eliminate corporate tax avoidance. Information is valuable and public transparency measures are an important first step.

    A second step, however, is to reform substantive tax laws to tax profits where they are genuinely being generated.

    Kerrie Sadiq is the recipient of a four year Australian Research Council Future Fellowship Grant.

    – ref. 31% of companies are not paying tax in Australia. How do they do it? – https://theconversation.com/31-of-companies-are-not-paying-tax-in-australia-how-do-they-do-it-242695

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Crossbenchers cancel their membership of airlines’ elite lounges

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Crossbench independents Allegra Spender, Helen Haines and Kate Chaney have declared they are pulling out of the elite lounges run by Qantas and Virgin, amid the ongoing spotlight on privileges politicians receive from the airlines.

    Allegra Spender, the member for the Sydney seat of Wentworth, also said she’d write to ask Qantas and Virgin not to give free upgrades to parliamentarians. It was “time to end the upgrades”.

    She said all sides of politics enjoyed the perks, and both major parties had blocked greater competition from Qatar Airways.

    Airlines operated under government policy and ministerial decisions, she said. “The public is understandably losing trust in politicians to make those decisions impartially when they’re being given free upgrades from the companies they’re supposed to regulate.”

    Spender urged a review of the ministerial code of conduct. Tighter rules were needed about what politicians could accept. The code should also be extended to shadow ministers. There should as well be much more transparency over the diaries of ministers, she said.

    “This is the only way to deal with the perception – and potential reality – of decisions being influenced by perks.”

    But Labor MP Luke Gosling, from the Darwin seat of Solomon, accused her of grandstanding. “It’s a bit rich from the people with harbour views who either drive or have less than a one-hour flight,” he told the ABC.

    Haines, from the Victorian regional seat of Indi, said she was quitting the lounges because she wanted “to remove any possibility of an actual or perceived conflict of interest” in her work as an MP.

    “The reality that airlines offer these kinds of perks because ultimately they want to get something in return does not sit well with me and I want to continue to contribute to creating a culture of transparency and accountability through my actions as well as my words.”

    Haines said she wanted “to see more rigorous rules around MP disclosures of upgrades and I think a ban on soliciting free flight upgrades is more than reasonable”.

    Chaney, who holds the Western Australian seat of Curtin, said with the media attention on the issue “we need to do everything we can to rebuild trust in politicians making decisions in the public interest”.

    Another crossbencher, Monique Ryan, from the Melbourne seat of Kooyong, who dropped her Qantas chairman’s lounge membership last year on integrity grounds, said she welcomed the discussion about the impact of corporate largesse on MPs’ decision-making.

    “I am deeply concerned about lobbying and its potential to impact government decision making. Free upgrades and airline hospitality are lobbying practices that we have taken for granted for a long time, and it is important that we re-examine them — especially given public concerns about conflicts of interest.”

    Meanwhile there is no indication of when opposition transport spokeswoman Bridget McKenzie, who was leading the charge against the prime minister over his upgrades, will produce a list of her own. She has said she has written to three airlines to check what upgrades she has had.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Crossbenchers cancel their membership of airlines’ elite lounges – https://theconversation.com/crossbenchers-cancel-their-membership-of-airlines-elite-lounges-242782

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Research and news relevance key factors driving the future of The Conversation – edition founder

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen Khan, Editor

    I took a walk through the beautiful campus of Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island recently, as I was in the city for the annual gathering of the various editions of The Conversation.

    This project follows a devolved model, providing local leadership and engagement with the higher education and research sectors that support it in different parts of the world. Alongside me on this sunny stroll through one of the world’s great educational neighbourhoods was Alfred Hermida, Professor at the University of British Columbia School of Journalism.

    Alf and I don’t see a huge amount of each other, but when we do it tends to be pretty productive. We first met in July 2014 at an event at the University of Amsterdam, where I stood in for The Conversation founder Andrew Jaspan, and delivered a speech on the establishment of the project – then it only existed in Australia and the UK. Alf was pretty taken with the story, and the unique model. Less than a week later he was in our newsroom at City, University of London, talking to our editors about his research into social media and news.

    But something else was going on in Alf’s head – something about discussions he’d had previously with his colleague Professor Mary Lynn Young that Canada could have its own edition of The Conversation. And for the next couple of years he and Mary-Lynn together built the case within the country’s higher education sector for a membership-supported Conversation Canada. It launched in 2017 under the remarkable leadership of Scott White and now forms one of the most important and valued parts of the global network.

    So it was great to see Alf and note the edition’s success. But it was also fascinating to hear about his ongoing research and insights into the changing media landscape, both in Canada and internationally. Among the trends Alf and colleagues have noticed recently is that many students no longer arrive harboring ambitions of working for big media players. In part, he feels, this is down the decline of such full-career opportunities. But he also hears from students that they don’t see themselves reflected in the legacy news outlets. Instead it is the small independent players and even solo operations now excite many aspiring journalists more than traditional newsrooms.

    Brown university campus in Providence, Rhode Island.
    Author provided, CC BY

    “I have a global cohort of journalism students in class,” said Alf. “Many are driven by a sense of mission, looking to address the way journalism has historically marginalized or mispresented diverse communities. They look to journalism as a way of making the world a better place and are drawn to new journalism start-ups that are looking to reimagine what journalism is and could be.”

    Alf views the Conversation as part of this shift in how journalism is done. As I’ve written before, we are sometimes asked if what we do really is journalism. I’ve suggested that it may not matter, so long as our content is valuable, trusted and accessible. Alf goes further though, arguing that the production method deployed by The Conversation and pursuit of informed, evidence-based reporting
    that drives it, makes it fundamentally journalism, albeit of a different style to that which typified the newspaper era.

    Alf explained: “The scholars who write for The Conversation are taking on journalistic practices, guided and mentored by our team of professional journalists. While the authors are not journalists in the traditional sense, they are producing journalism that seeks to explain and interpret the world around us to help the public lead better lives. This is what journalism is all about.”

    As for the route ahead for The Conversation Canada, and the network more broadly, Alf, as you might expect (and hope), grounds some of his thoughts in research. Indeed, in research conducted by one of his graduate journalism students.

    Savannah Parsons considered traffic to The Conversation Canada late in 2023 as part of her study, and sought to ascertain what type of content drew readers in, and what kept them there. The picture is of course mixed, but there is a clear pattern that illustrates that expert engagement with news and events is a central factor in bringing readers to the website and our content more broadly. However, Parsons’ study also indicated that content we might traditionally describe as “more featurey”, that is, less tied to events, perhaps more narrative and perhaps even taking the form of audio rather than – or as well as – text, plays a vital role in building a loyal audience that will return to Conversation content, time after time.

    So, as was ever the case, there is a mix to be considered. And it will be for edition leads to decide exactly how that mix is deployed, and in what form, to suit individual markets. But it is clear to Alf, and I think to most of us at The Conversation, that news-relevance, timeliness and, of course, research, will be the central factors driving the project through its second decade.

    – ref. Research and news relevance key factors driving the future of The Conversation – edition founder – https://theconversation.com/research-and-news-relevance-key-factors-driving-the-future-of-the-conversation-edition-founder-242812

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The evolutionary benefits of being forgetful

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sven Vanneste, Professor of Clinical Neuroscience, Trinity College Dublin

    Don’t despair! Asier Romero

    Forgetting is part of our daily lives. You may walk into a room only to forget why you went in there – or perhaps someone says hi on the street and you can’t remember their name.

    But why do we forget things? Is it simply a sign of memory impairment, or are there benefits?

    One of the earliest findings in this area highlighted that forgetting can occur simply because the average person’s memories fade away. This comes from 19th century German psychologist Hermann Ebbinghaus, whose “forgetting curve” showed how most people forget the details of new information quite rapidly, but this tapers off over time. More recently, this has been replicated by neuroscientists.

    The forgetting curve:


    Cloud Assess

    Forgetting can also serve functional purposes, however. Our brains are bombarded with information constantly. If we were to remember every detail, it would become increasingly difficult to retain the important information.

    One of the ways that we avoid this is by not paying sufficient attention in the first place. Nobel prize winner Eric Kandel, and a host of subsequent research, suggest that memories are formed when the connections (synapses) between the cells in the brain (the neurons) are strengthened.

    Paying attention to something can strengthen those connections and sustain that memory. This same mechanism enables us to forget all the irrelevant details that we encounter each day. So although people show increased signs of being distracted as they age, and memory-related disorders such as Alzheimer’s disease are associated with attention impairments, we all need to be able to forget all the unimportant details in order to create memories.

    Handling new information

    Recalling a memory can sometimes also lead to it changing for the purposes of coping with new information. Suppose your daily commute involves driving the same route every day. You probably have a strong memory for this route, with the underlying brain connections strengthened by each journey.

    But suppose one Monday, one of your usual roads is closed, and there’s a new route for the next three weeks. Your memory for the journey needs to be flexible enough to incorporate this new information. One way in which the brain does this is by weakening some of the memory connections, while strengthening new additional connections to remember the new route.

    Ever reach the office and barely even remember driving there?
    Twinster Photo

    Clearly, an inability to update our memories would have significant negative consequences. Consider PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder), where an inability to update or forget a traumatic memory means an individual is perpetually triggered by reminders in their environment.

    From an evolutionary standpoint, forgetting old memories in response to new information is undoubtedly beneficial. Our hunter-gatherer ancestors might have repeatedly visited a safe water hole, only to one day discover a rival settlement, or a bear with newborn cubs there. Their brains had to be able to update the memory to label this location as no longer safe. Failure to do so would have been a threat to their survival.

    Reactivating memories

    Sometimes, forgetting may not be due to memory loss, but to changes in our ability to access memories. Rodent research has demonstrated how forgotten memories can be remembered (or reactivated) by supporting the synaptic connections mentioned above.

    Rodents were taught to associate something neutral (like a bell ringing) with something unpleasant (like a mild shock to the foot). After several repetitions, the rodents formed a “fear memory” where hearing the bell made them react as though they expected a shock. The researchers were able to isolate the neuronal connections which were activated by pairing the bell and the shock, in the part of the brain known as the amygdala.

    They then wondered if artificially activating these neurons would make the rodents act as if they expected their foot to be shocked even if there was no bell and no shock. They did this using a technique called optogenetic stimulation, which involves using light and genetic engineering, and showed that it was indeed possible to activate (and subsequently inactivate) such memories.

    One way that this might be relevant to humans is through a type of transient forgetting which might not be due to memory loss. Return to the earlier example where you see someone in the street and can’t remember their name. Perhaps you believe you know the first letter, and you’ll get the name in a moment. This is known as the tip-of-the-tongue phenomenon.

    When this was originally studied by American psychologists Roger Brown and David McNeill in the 1960s, they reported that people’s ability to identify aspects of the missing word was better than chance. This suggested that the information was not fully forgotten.

    ‘It’ll come back to me.’
    Kyttan

    One theory is that the phenomenon occurs as a result of weakened connections in memory between the words and their meanings, reflecting difficulty in remembering the desired information.

    However, another possibility is that the phenomenon might serve as a signal to the individual that the information is not forgotten, only currently inaccessible.

    This might explain why it occurs more frequently as people age and become more knowledgeable, meaning their brains have to sort through more information to remember something. The tip of the tongue phenomenon might be their brain’s means of letting them know that the desired information is not forgotten, and that perseverance may lead to successful remembering.

    In sum, we may forget information for a host of reasons. Because we weren’t paying attention or because information decays over time. We may forget in order to update memories. And sometimes forgotten information is not permanently lost, but rather inaccessible. All these forms of forgetting help our brain to function efficiently, and have supported our survival over many generations.

    This is certainly not to minimise the negative outcomes caused by people becoming very forgetful (for example, through Alzheimer’s disease). Nonetheless, forgetting has its evolutionary advantages. We only hope that you’ve found this article sufficiently interesting that you won’t forget its contents in a hurry.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The evolutionary benefits of being forgetful – https://theconversation.com/the-evolutionary-benefits-of-being-forgetful-242629

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Maia Sandu’s victory in second round of Moldovan election show’s limits to Moscow’s meddling

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

    Following a campaign marred by widespread and credible allegations of massive interference by Russia and pro-Russian proxies, Moldova’s incumbent president, Maia Sandu, has won another term in the second round of presidential elections.

    According to preliminary results published by the country’s central electoral commission on November 3, Sandu beat her second-round challenger, Alexandr Stoianoglo, with 55% of the vote and on a higher turnout than in the first round of elections on October 20.

    There were more than 180,000 votes between the incumbent and her challenger. In a country with an electorate of just over three million people, this is a significant margin, especially when compared with the razor-thin yes vote in the EU referendum that was on the same day as the first round of the presidential election two weeks ago. In that election, Sandu came first with 42%, compared to Staionoglo’s 26%, but in the EU poll, just 10,000 votes separated the yes and the no votes.

    Sandu, who campaigned on a strongly pro-European platform, prevailed despite pro-Russian interference and fearmongering and a campaign by Stoianoglo that emphasised the importance of good relations with both Moscow and Brussels.

    Moldova’s election result will certainly have come as a relief not only to Sandu and her supporters but also to Moldova’s western partners. It is the first time that a popularly elected president has won a second term in the tiny landlocked former Soviet satellite. The country borders Romania and Ukraine and has a small but significant Russian breakaway region, Transnistria, as a constant reminder of Moscow’s influence in the region.

    Moldova’s election presents a clear difference to the Georgian parliamentary election results on October 26, which saw an openly pro-Russian Georgian Dream party win an election considered as neither particularly free nor fair, in results that the Georgia’s opposition-aligned president and western pollsters allege have been rigged.

    Sandu’s win, by contrast, demonstrates both the appeal of the idea of a European future and the limits of Russian interference. Yet the understandable enthusiasm about the result in Moldova also needs to be tempered by a more careful analysis of some of the deeply entrenched societal cleavages that the elections have all but confirmed and the difficulties that lie ahead.

    Deep divisions

    Sandu’s win overall looks impressive. But she did not win the vote in Moldova itself, where Stoianoglo beat her by some 30,000 votes. What saved Sandu, like the EU referendum, was the strong support for her among voters in the diaspora, where she captured almost five times as many votes as Stoianoglo.

    Just over 270,000 votes (83%) of the votes cast by Moldovans living abroad, predominantly in western Europe and north America, saw her comfortably across the finishing line. There may be good reasons not to distinguish between votes from inside and outside Moldova – but the optics are not good.

    Nor can the overall margin of Sandu’s victory gloss over the fact that her supporters inside the country are predominantly concentrated in the capital and the centre of the country. In the capital Chisinau, in the centre of Moldova, Sandu won with 57%, representing almost one-third of her total vote inside the country. In the north and south of the country, Stoianoglo generally took the largest vote share.

    In the country’s second-largest city, Balti in the north, he won 70% of the vote, compared to Sandu’s 30%. In the southern autonomous region of Gagauzia, a hotbed of pro-Russian, anti-European activism, Sandu obtained less than 3%. In Transnistria, Sandu came away with just 20% of the vote.

    Map of Moldova showing the breakaway regions of Transnistria and Gaugazia.
    Institute for the Study of War

    These results are not surprising, given the outcome of the first round of the elections. But they represent fall in support for Sandu compared to in 2020, when she beat the then incumbent, socialist party leader Igor Dodon. Four years ago, Sandu obtained over 250,000 votes more than Dodon, winning almost 58% of the total vote. While she took the overwhelming share of the diaspora vote then as well, she also bested Dodon in most constituencies in the south.

    Dodon campaigned for Stoianoglo in this election, but much of the challenger’s support was very probably due to a massive pro-Russian interference campaign that capitalised on many Moldovans’ fears and frustrations. Pro-Moscow messages aimed to capitalise on fears about being dragged into Russia’s war against Ukraine.

    But there was also frustration with a government that has made little progress on much needed anti-corruption reforms and presided over a serious cost-of-living crisis in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic and made worse by the war on Moldova’s eastern neighbour. Sandu’s party, the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won a commanding majority in the 2021 elections – so failures of the government are seen as failures of Sandu and her agenda.

    Challenges ahead

    That Sandu won the presidency again, and against these odds, demonstrates her resilience. But it can’t be taken for granted that her party will similarly prevail in parliamentary elections due by the autumn of 2025. She may well be forced into a difficult cohabitation with a potentially socialist-led government next year. In a parliamentary democracy, in which the powers of the government by far exceed those of the president, this could significantly slow down Moldova’s EU accession negotiations.

    But there are also some silver linings on the horizon. That Sandu won clearly demonstrates the limits of Russian interference. There is a core part of the Moldovan electorate that cannot be swayed by Russian misinformation or vote buying. This is a basis on which Sandu and PAS can build.

    Perhaps more importantly, Sandu and Stoianoglo both sent conciliatory signals on election eve. Stoianoglo emphasised the importance of respecting the outcome of the democratic process and expressed the hope that Moldovans would now move beyond hatred and division. Sandu acknowledged the concerns of those who had not voted for her and promised to serve as the president of all Moldovans and to work for the country’s further development.

    If they both stay true to their word, Moldova may finally break with a past of repeated political crises and economic stagnation.

    Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

    – ref. Maia Sandu’s victory in second round of Moldovan election show’s limits to Moscow’s meddling – https://theconversation.com/maia-sandus-victory-in-second-round-of-moldovan-election-shows-limits-to-moscows-meddling-242796

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Divination in early modern Britain sought signs in swine, the stars and scripture

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Martha McGill, Historian of Supernatural Beliefs, University of Warwick

    The Fortune-Teller by Caravaggio (1595-8). Louvre Museum

    In the late 1740s, Samuel Meadwell arrived in London. A “raw country fellow” from Northamptonshire, he had come to work as a distiller’s apprentice and hoped to make his fortune.

    When a pair of women told him there was “something very particular in [his] face”, he was intrigued. They introduced him to a widow called Mary Smith, who allegedly practised “the art of astrology, before very great people, princes, and the like”. She persuaded Meadwell to wrap all his money in a handkerchief with two peppercorns, some salt and a little mould. After waiting three hours, she explained, he would discover a great fortune.

    Meadwell discovered only that his money had been replaced with scraps of metal. Smith was deported for fraud, while Meadwell learned a lesson about city life. He bemoaned his naivety – but he was not alone in believing in the power of astrologers, or the potential for magical methods to reveal weighty secrets.

    In early modern Britain (1500-1750), divination was widespread. People consulted diviners to find stolen goods, learn about the next harvest, or scrutinise their marriage fortunes. Sometimes they wanted to know what diseases or disasters loomed, and several nobles exhibited an unwholesome interest in the monarch’s date of demise.

    The sex of unborn children was another topic of speculation: when Anne Boleyn gave birth to the future Elizabeth I in 1533, she disappointed not only Henry VIII, but also a whole host of “astrologers, sorcerers, and sorceresses” who had assured the couple that a male heir was forthcoming.

    Diviners came from across the social spectrum. Learned astrologers could command audiences with kings and queens. Most people, however, relied on the services of a local cunning-man or woman.

    There were also so-called “Egyptian” fortunetellers who roamed the country reading palms. These travellers probably did not have African origins. A hostile 1673 work claimed that they were “great pretenders” who sought to dupe “the ignorant” by associating themselves with Egyptians, “a people heretofore very famous for astronomy, natural magic, [and] the art of divination”.

    The authorities did not approve. In 1530, an act passed by Henry VIII’s parliament sought to expel “Egyptians” from the country, complaining that they conned people using “great, subtle, and crafty means” such as fortunetelling.

    Underpinning many divinatory methods was the belief that God’s divine plan was encoded in the patterns of the natural world. Palmistry relied on interpreting the marks God had traced on the body. Astrologers, meanwhile, focused on the movements of the planets.

    Between 1658 and 1664, a woman called Sarah Jinner published almanacks containing astrological readings for the forthcoming year. She ranged from predicting “desperate and unreconciliable wars” to cautioning women that: “We find Mercury in Pisces retrograde in the 6th House, [which] denoteth that servants will generally be cross, vexatious, and intolerable, especially maidservants.”

    Meeting a Swine. From Dr Solman’s translation of Aristotle’s Golden Cabinet of Secrets (c. 1690).

    The behaviour of animals was also considered portentous. A pamphlet from circa 1690 declared that “to meet a swine the first thing in a morning, carrying straw in its mouth, denotes a maid, or widow, shall soon be married, and very fruitful in children”. On the other hand, magpies flying around you signified “much strife and brawling in marriage”.

    When a great murmuration of starlings was spied battling in the air above Cork in 1621, people whispered that it signified divine anger. Eight months later the city was devastated by a fire.

    Other divination practices relied on chance. Cheap pamphlets outlined ways of divining with dice, the idea being that God determined the outcome. Another practice was to open a Bible randomly and consult the first passage that caught the eye. Bibles could alternatively be used to catch thieves. The usual method was to insert a key into the Bible, recite the names of the suspects, and wait for the Bible or the key to move.

    A similar technique involved suspending a sieve from a pair of shears. The sieve would rotate when a thief’s name was mentioned.

    Divination and the authorities

    These practices were viewed with suspicion by the ecclesiastical and secular authorities, especially after the 16th-century Reformation.

    Divination by the sieve and shears in Cornelius Agrippa, De Occulta Philosophia (1567).
    Opera Omnia

    A Welsh scholar warned in 1711 that using the Bible as an “instrument of prognostication” was “the greatest insult that anyone can give to the scriptures”. Church courts punished people for the “devilry” of divining with a sieve and shears.

    Most dangerous of all was divination by consulting spirits. The Scottish cunning-man Andrew Man claimed to have an angelic adviser, Christsonday, who told him whether upcoming years would be good or bad. He was also in a sexual relationship with the Fairy Queen, who had promised to teach him to “know all things”. Leading local figures concluded that Man had really been cavorting with devils. He was tried for witchcraft, and executed in 1598.

    In general, however, cunning-folk enjoyed good standing within their communities. Currents of scepticism flowed faster during the 18th-century Enlightenment. A 1762 work expressed a common view when it blamed belief in divination on the “ignorance and darkness” that “covered the minds of mankind”. But divinatory practices were themselves a quest for enlightenment, and the prospect of unravelling the mysteries of the future has remained compelling up to the present day.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Martha McGill receives funding from the British Academy.

    – ref. Divination in early modern Britain sought signs in swine, the stars and scripture – https://theconversation.com/divination-in-early-modern-britain-sought-signs-in-swine-the-stars-and-scripture-241825

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Cop16: the world’s largest meeting to save nature has ended with no clear path ahead

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Harriet Bulkeley, Professor of Geography, Durham University

    Increasing rights for Indigenous people and local communities was one of the few steps forward at Cop16. Philipp Montenegro, CC BY-NC-ND

    Progress at the UN’s biodiversity summit, Cop16, in Cali, Columbia, has been slow. Frustratingly so.

    There were high hopes that the Colombian hosts could coordinate action between developed and developing countries towards reaching the landmark global biodiversity agreement reached in Montreal, Canada at Cop15 two years ago. But after two weeks and one long night, negotiations ended abruptly. Many delegates had to leave to catch flights home with key issues unresolved.

    This conference started with alarming news that the latest edition of the red list – the official record of threatened species – shows that more than one third of tree species face extinction in the wild. That’s more than the number of threatened birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians combined.

    Urging negotiators to recognise the seriousness of this nature crisis, Colombia’s president Gustavo Petro warned they were facing “the battle for life”.

    There was certainly no shortage of people seeking solutions.

    In the heart of the city, Cop16’s green zone hosted vibrant music, film screenings, indigenous arts and crafts. Local people, businesses and conference delegates discussed creative and collaborative ways to address the nature crisis.

    Over in the blue zone, the official conference space, there was a notable increase in the diversity of communities participating across side events and pavilions. The links between biodiversity and human health were highlighted. So too was the importance of nature for water and food security.

    In his opening video message, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres urged countries gathered to “engage all of society” as “la Cop de la gente” (a Cop of the people).

    So protests from Indigenous people and local communities were particularly powerful. Including greater recognition for these groups in the final decisions from the meeting was a rare sign of progress. A new fund to ensure that these groups would receive a share of the profits from the commercial use of digital sequence information – genetic information from native plants and animals – was another victory.

    A new set of principles developed by the UK government to prioritise gender issues in conservation and ensure fair access to the benefits biodiversity action for all marginalised groups received widespread support.

    The focus on economic resilience was more prominent than ever, with two days dedicated to business and finance. In 2018, only 300 businesses attended Cop14 in Egypt. In Cali, this number was 3,000.

    Delegates assemble for the negotiations at Cop16​.
    Philipp Montenegro, CC BY-NC-ND

    Private investors, pension funds, the insurance industry and public banks stressed the importance of creating robust measures of biodiversity improvement. Business sectors focused on transition plans that could support fair and transparent means of reporting progress. The nature tech sector is growing too, with start-ups expected to attract up to $2 billion (£1.5 billion) in investments by the end of 2024.

    Back in the negotiating halls, delegates faced an uphill struggle. Only 44 out of 196 national plans to protect biodiversity have been updated to reflect the new targets. So, it’s no surprise that a gap is widening between current reality and the ambitious set of 23 targets which governments must reach by 2030. While countries agreed to a progress review in 2026, no consensus was reached on the indicators to be used. Progress was painfully slow.

    Negotiators debated how the global agreement on biodiversity should interact with its sister conventions on climate and desertification. Further discussions next year might identify how this could work but this probably won’t lead to drastic change. Some countries, including India and Russia, still seemed unwilling to accept the critical risks posed to nature and society of exceeding the 1.5°C global target for climate change.

    Many developing nations were concerned that greater integration between the climate crisis and biodiversity would lead to “double counting” of funding with the danger that developed countries could backtrack on their promises to support dedicated action on nature. Others, including the EU, argued that action to conserve and restore nature was an essential part of tackling all environmental and societal global challenges.

    The deadlock between these positions continued for days. In the final hours of Cop16, negotiators reached a compromise that sets out a more integrated pathway for bringing action on climate and nature together. While the effects of climate change directly exacerbate biodiversity loss, restoring nature can be a powerful tool in the fight to mitigate the climate crisis and benefit biodiversity. Nature-based solutions – measures like restoring peatlands and wetlands, planting trees and mangroves – help build that resilience.

    Heads of state and ministers joining at the midpoint of the meeting pointed out the need to ensure that nature is protected both for its own sake and for the communities that depend on healthy ecosystems for their livelihood and wellbeing.

    But at the end of a long final night, these words were not accompanied by concrete plans for action or the financial commitments about how nature protection should be paid for that many at Cop16 were hoping for.

    Whole of society, all of government?

    The global biodiversity agreement set in 2022 called for a whole of society approach to address the nature crisis. Cop16 certainly delivered. From local communities to huge businesses, there was a spirit of rolling up sleeves and putting investment and innovation to work using nature-based solutions to restore and conserve biodiversity.

    One of many packed side-events which bought the ‘whole of society’ together at Cop16.
    Philipp Montenegro, CC BY-NC-ND

    The same energy and commitment was clear from many of the local and sub-national governments assembled at Cop16. The first gathering of Mayors for Nature demonstrated significant commitment to action.

    Leaders from California and Quebec set the tone by investing in large-scale programmes, with Quebec not only committing to fund their own biodiversity action but also contributing to the global biodiversity fund – the first regional government to do so.

    But national governments struggled to move forward. The complexity of addressing biodiversity and its necessary interactions with sectors such as agriculture, transport and mining, as well as concerns over historic injustices between developing and developed countries, was perhaps too much for Cop16 to resolve.

    The risk is that, as governments navigate these challenges, the private sector could accelerate action without scrutiny. I worry that the lack of policy coordination could deter investors and slow the pace of action that local communities and regional governments want to make. Rather than waiting for global consensus, groups can catalyse change while holding each other accountable to make swift progress to save nature.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Harriet Bulkeley receives funding from the European Commission and currently serves as an advisor to the UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

    – ref. Cop16: the world’s largest meeting to save nature has ended with no clear path ahead – https://theconversation.com/cop16-the-worlds-largest-meeting-to-save-nature-has-ended-with-no-clear-path-ahead-242160

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Lebanon peace deal: Israel-Hezbollah agreement needs to be guaranteed by the Lebanese armed forces

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Vanessa Newby, Assistant Professor, Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University

    After a month of heavy bombardment, and despite continuing its military campaign and clearing border villages in south Lebanon, Israel is reportedly indirectly negotiating a peace deal with Hezbollah leaders. The terms of a ceasefire require the full implementation of UN resolution 1701, with a presence of around 10,000 Lebanese armed forces (LAF) soldiers stationed along the “blue line” which divides Israel from Lebanon and the Golan Heights. But making 1701 work has always proved a challenge.

    There can be no doubt that since its inception in 2006, resolution 1701 has never been fully implemented in south Lebanon. Adopted unanimously in 2006, the purpose of the resolution was to end hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, with the UN security council calling for a permanent ceasefire.

    A key objective of 1701 is to ensure the area south of the Litani River in south Lebanon is free from any weapons other than those of the Lebanese state and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil)

    It is on this issue that Unifil has received the most opprobrium. International observers and politicians have criticised Unifil’s inability to locate and remove Hezbollah’s weapons. The IDF blames Unifil for failing to prevent the rearmament of Hezbollah and for allegedly not doing enough to prevent Hezbollah attacks on Israel.

    Conversely, in Lebanon, Hezbollah supporters rebuke Unifil for failing to prevent six IDF invasions over half a century. This, they argue, makes Hezbollah’s presence on the blue line essential.

    But the question of why resolution 1701 was not fully implemented is not a simple one. Multiple actors are involved, of which one key player is the LAF. A large part of fulfilling resolution 1701 means ensuring that LAF are deployed in southern Lebanon as the only legitimate provider of force representing the Lebanese government. Understanding their role and the constraints they face is an important part of the puzzle.

    Prior to the outbreak of the Lebanese civil war in 1975, south Lebanon was sparsely populated and regarded as strategically unimportant. When civil war broke out, political and operational factors meant the LAF could not deploy to the south.

    These factors included the defection of LAF officers to sectarian militia and a lack of sufficient resources. The influence of neighbouring Syria and the heavy presence of militia groups, plus the occupation of the “zone of security” in south Lebanon by the IDF and its proxy militia the South Lebanon Army complicated matters.

    After the 2006 war, LAF became an important official party to resolution 1701 and Unifil worked closely with them to fulfil three main objectives: first, to assist with their re-introduction into the area of operations; second, to improve their operational capabilities; and third, to seek international funding for the LAF to improve their technical capabilities.

    Hunting for Hezbollah

    Unifil is mandated to assist LAF in taking steps towards the establishment of an area free from armed personnel between the blue line and the Litani River.

    Map of sourthern Lebanon showing the blue line which covers the Lebanese-Israeli border and extends to cover the Lebanese-Golan Heights border.
    Striving2767, CC BY-NC-SA

    Until recently LAF and Unifil often conducted joint patrols to search for unexploded ordinance and unauthorised weapons. If Unifil independently discovered an illegal weapons cache, it would notify the LAF, which handled the weapons’ recovery.

    This approach helped Unifil sidestep confrontations with the local population, on whose support they depend to patrol safely and execute the mandate. But while this policy was supportive of the goals of 1701, ultimately it proved ineffective.

    There were a number of reasons for this. First, the LAF faces legal restrictions on entering private property. If it suspects illegal weapons are stored on private land, the LAF needs a court order to enter the property. This takes time, which gives the owner of the property the opportunity to remove the weapons. To fully implement 1701, this legal barrier would need to be removed.

    The LAF also has to walk a political tightrope between different political factions in Beirut, and is also sensitive to the need for local support in the south. While LAF is undoubtedly popular in Lebanon, many in the south are Shia Muslims with strong loyalties to Hezbollah and the Amal movement (a Shia militia which now operates as a political party in Lebanon). These groups offer both a degree of security and material help in the form of social services.

    While conducting field research in southern Lebanon from 2012 to 2018, I discovered that civilians in the region understand that it is difficult for LAF to hunt aggressively for weapons. This is because they need to retain a working relationship with Hezbollah which – with its allies – constitutes the political majority in Beirut. Ridding south Lebanon of Hezbollah weapons will require political cover from Beirut.

    Another problem the LAF has faced is getting hold of modern weaponry due to Israeli opposition, despite the LAF enjoying strong international support. Israel’s “qualitative military edge” strategy, supported by the US, means that it campaigns internationally against any of its border states obtaining weapons deemed to pose a threat to its security. This has on occasion prevented LAF from accepting essential defensive equipment, such as armoured vehicles and air defence systems, from its European friends.

    Preventing LAF from getting defensive equipment contradicts the EU and US stated goal of strengthening LAF. It also supports Hezbollah’s claim that it can only hand over national security to LAF when it is properly equipped to defend Lebanon. A civilian I interviewed in south Lebanon in 2013 summed up the paradox: “We would prefer that the international community made a decision to allow the military to be armed properly, and then we don’t need the resistance.”

    Ultimately the political and legal tightrope the LAF walks in Lebanon is deeply implicated in why resolution 1701 has never been fully implemented. Neither a national army nor a peacekeeping force are capable of enforcing a Hezbollah withdrawal in the absence of political and legal agreement in Beirut, or local support in south Lebanon.

    Any calls for the full implementation of 1701 will require the unqualified support of all parties to 1701. This is not just those involved in the conflict – Israel, Hezbollah and the Lebanese government – but also various international stakeholders including the US, EU and all countries with UN peacekeepers in Lebanon. It will be a delicate balance.

    Vanessa Newby does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Lebanon peace deal: Israel-Hezbollah agreement needs to be guaranteed by the Lebanese armed forces – https://theconversation.com/lebanon-peace-deal-israel-hezbollah-agreement-needs-to-be-guaranteed-by-the-lebanese-armed-forces-241930

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Paddington gets a British passport – but the Home Office treats real refugees very differently

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Katie Tonkiss, Senior Lecturer in Sociology and Policy, Aston University

    Chris Dorney/Shutterstock

    To say that Paddington Bear is a beloved British icon would be something of an understatement. The Peruvian bear, who arrived at Paddington station with nothing but his suitcase, a love of marmalade sandwiches and a luggage tag reading “please look after this bear”, was created by Michael Bond in the 1958 classic A Bear Called Paddington.

    Bond went on to write 29 Paddington books, and the bear has appeared in TV adaptations for nearly 50 years. The 2014 Paddington film was launched to much acclaim, leading to a sequel in 2017. Paddington even appeared with Queen Elizabeth II during the Platinum Jubilee celebrations in 2022, cementing his status as a quintessential symbol of British identity.

    In the third film, premiering November 8, Paddington will visit Peru in search of his dear Aunt Lucy. As part of the marketing campaign for the new film, the UK Home Office has granted Paddington his own British passport.

    What can Paddington Bear’s citizenship journey teach our leaders?

    Join The Conversation UK and migration experts in London on November 16 for a screening of Paddington Peru and a discussion on migration, citizenship and belonging.

    Click here for more information and tickets.

    “We wrote to the Home Office asking if we could get a replica, and they actually issued Paddington with an official passport,” one of the film’s producers said. “You wouldn’t think the Home Office would have a sense of humour, but under official observations, they’ve listed him as Bear.”

    Arriving from Peru in need of help, Paddington is often afforded the status of refugee-in-chief – even immortalised in Banksy artwork. Bond was inspired by Jewish refugees arriving in the UK from Europe during the second world war when he created the character.

    In being granted British citizenship, Paddington has fared far better than most people arriving in the UK in need of help. Under the current system, asylum seekers must navigate a complex process, often over many years, in which they are disbelieved, excluded and stigmatised. A third of all people seeking asylum in the UK are refused at their initial application.

    Should they manage to be granted refugee status, after five years they may apply for indefinite leave to remain. Should that be granted, after another year they may apply for citizenship status. For this to be granted, the applicant must be able to prove language skills, have passed the “life in the UK” test and be shown to be of “good character”.

    Giving Paddington a passport is an unsettling display of double standards from the same Home Office that has overseen the hostile environment and other harsh asylum policies. The Home Office has made conditions in the UK as difficult as possible for people settling from overseas and has subjected people arriving in the UK to seek asylum – much like Paddington – to delays, detention, destitution and deportation.

    In its treatment of the Windrush generation, the Home Office has deported people who have legally lived and worked all their lives in the UK – and has failed to compensate victims. For the Home Office then to issue a passport to a fictional character as a publicity stunt is, to put it mildly, problematic.



    Read more:
    Through its immigration policies, the UK government decides whose families are ‘legitimate’

    The ‘deserving’ migrant

    At the same time, the whole episode is a very clear reflection of how access to British citizenship really works. Access to British citizenship for people arriving in need of safety depends on proving yourself to be deserving of refugee status, and then of citizenship status.

    Research has shown that people tend to see child refugees (like those who inspired Bond to create Paddington) as the most deserving of help. Paddington has also shown himself to integrate into the British way of life, sipping tea and eating marmalade sandwiches in a cosy duffel coat and wellies.

    This supposedly deserving refugee contrasts against those seen as undeserving – most often men of colour who are seen as “invading” in “swarms”. Until recently, anyone who arrived in the UK on a boat (as Paddington did) to claim asylum would be at risk of being sent to Rwanda to have their claims processed. Keir Starmer has indicated his openness to similar offshoring deals.

    The stunt also highlights how valuable a commodity British citizenship has become. While people from the Windrush generation and their descendants worked and paid taxes in the UK all their lives, only to be told that they weren’t really British, citizenship is far easier to acquire for those on investor visas, which require a £2 million investment in the UK.

    The citizenship acquisition process itself is also expensive, costing upwards of £5,000 per application. While most refugees will struggle to get British citizenship, for Paddington it came relatively easily as an investment in the UK film industry.

    I won’t begrudge Paddington his passport. He’s waited long enough for the security and stability of a status denied to so many non-citizens around the world. However, this stunt has highlighted both the double standards of a hostile Home Office attempting to create the illusion of benevolence, and the realities of a citizenship acquisition process which continually fails the vulnerable.

    Katie Tonkiss receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.

    – ref. Paddington gets a British passport – but the Home Office treats real refugees very differently – https://theconversation.com/paddington-gets-a-british-passport-but-the-home-office-treats-real-refugees-very-differently-241988

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The true class divide in British politics is not which party people choose, but whether they vote at all

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Oliver Heath, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway University of London

    Traditionally, Britain was regarded as the class society. And class was pre-eminent among the factors used to explain political party allegiance. In broad terms, working-class voters chose Labour, the party set up to represent them. Middle-class voters chose the Conservatives, the party that represented homeowners and business owners.

    Since the 1960s, there has been a decline in class-based voting. Our social background is no longer such a good predictor of our party.

    That may be because there are more parties to choose from, or because the big two have changed their offering to appeal to a wider audience, but it’s also about class-based abstention. In the 1960s, most working-class people voted in elections, and when they did so they tended to vote for Labour. Now, many more working-class people do not vote at all. And when they do, they are less drawn to any party in particular.

    Class differences with respect to turnout have thus become greater than class differences with respect to vote choice. Or put another way, class is now more important as a participatory divide than it is as a partisan divide.

    According to the long-running British Election Study (BES), the difference in reported turnout between people with working-class occupations and middle-class occupations was less than 5 percentage points in 1964. In 2024, it was 16 percentage points.

    Put into context, the difference in reported turnout between the under-30s and the over-60s in 2024 was 20 percentage points. This age gap is the subject of great concern and much discussion. We worry a lot about why young people are not voting. Numerous initiatives have been launched to try and get young people more involved in politics. Yet the class gap, of a very similar magnitude, has received almost no attention at all.

    BES data over the years shows us that the working class has generally been somewhat less likely to vote than the middle class. But from 1964 to 2001, the difference in turnout rates was fairly modest. Turnout bumped along, up and down, but the relative difference did not change much, and turnout among both groups tended to increase and decrease in tandem.

    However, since 2001, the turnout patterns between the two classes have sharply diverged. In the election of 2001, overall turnout was the lowest since 2018 at just 59.4%. The middle-class vote bounced back after that nadir but the working-class vote did not, remaining instead at historically low levels. Before 2001, the average class gap in turnout was 6 percentage points. So today’s 16 percentage-point gap is nearly three times greater than the pre-2001 level.

    The widening class gap in turnout, 1964-2024:

    The chart below shows how the size of this class gap on turnout compares with the size of the class gap on support for Labour, the party which was originally founded to represent working-class interests.

    In 1964, among people with working-class occupations, 11% did not vote, 55% voted for Labour, and the remaining 34% voted for the Conservatives or another party. Among people with middle-class occupations, 7% did not vote, just 18% voted for Labour, and the remaining 75% voted for the Conservatives or another party. The class gap on turnout was therefore just 5 percentage points, compared with the class gap on Labour support of 37 percentage points.

    The class gap in turnout has overtaken the class gap in support for Labour, 1964-2024:

    Over time, Labour has become a less distinctively working-class party. This has particularly been the case since the New Labour period, when Tony Blair famously rebranded the party to project a more middle-class image.

    The result has been that the size of the class gap on Labour support has declined, while the size of the class gap on turnout has increased – to the point in the early 2000s where class differences on turnout overtook class differences on support for Labour.

    These findings have important implications. There is a widespread belief that class has become less important in British politics, and so does not merit as much attention as it once did. This belief is false.

    While it is certainly true that class divisions are not as evident as they once were in terms of structuring vote choice, this is because class has been pushed outside the political system. Whereas previously the middle class and working class were divided on who to vote for, now they are divided on whether to bother voting at all.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The true class divide in British politics is not which party people choose, but whether they vote at all – https://theconversation.com/the-true-class-divide-in-british-politics-is-not-which-party-people-choose-but-whether-they-vote-at-all-240645

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nigel Farage, AI and the revolt of the squeezed middle: class politics is about to get messier than ever

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Laura Hood, Host, Know Your Place podcast, The Conversation

    The neglect of working-class voters in the past few decades has had profound consequences for British political life. Disillusioned with the two main parties, many have turned to Nigel Farage’s Reform and others are simply not voting at all.

    With the next election likely to be a tight race in many key constituencies, something must be done to win these voters back.

    But as we find out in the fifth and final part of Know Your Place: what happened to class in British politics, a podcast series from The Conversation Documentaries, the relationship between class and voting could be about to become even more complicated. So it’s difficult for any party to know how to put an electoral coalition together.

    Paula Surridge, professor of political sociology at the University of Bristol, has identified what she calls cross-pressured voters as a key demographic in post-Brexit British politics. These are people who are probably economically left wing – they want better public services and wealth redistribution – but who are more right wing on social issues such as immigration and crime and punishment.

    In a system like we have in Britain, where we’ve got first past the post and two big parties to choose from, that creates lots of swing voters who, when economics is their priority as we saw in 2024, they might lean more to Labour. When immigration or Brexit or something along that dimension is their priority, they might lean towards the Conservatives or a party like Reform.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

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    Appealing to such voters is therefore a real challenge. And while the perception is that they’ve flocked to Farage, Surridge says that’s not the full picture at all.

    Many working-class voters were prioritising economic issues, public services. They don’t, on the whole, vote Reform for that reason. The voters for whom immigration was absolutely their most important issue, which are a much smaller group, they were very likely to vote Reform.

    Reform came second in 98 constituencies – 89 of which ended up going to Labour. A lot of those constituencies were won on wafer-thin majorities, and they should be considered highly at risk in the next election. So working out how to appeal to cross-pressured voters is key.

    The bigger challenge, however, is winning voters back from the sofa. The truth is that there is a more salient class divide in Britain: who actually votes at all.

    According to Oliver Heath, professor of politics at Royal Holloway, University of London, who has tracked the history of turnout and class over the past 20 years, working-class voters are staying away from the ballot box. The first real signs of this were in 2001, when Tony Blair won a second term with a turnout of 59%, one of the lowest in British history.

    2001 was when turnout fell off a cliff … and it dropped across all segments of society. But since then, turnout has rebounded quite a large extent amongst middle-class voters, but stayed very low amongst working class voters.



    Read more:
    The true class divide in British politics is not which party people choose, but whether they vote at all

    For decades working-class communities were assumed to vote Labour, and so Labour gave them relatively little political attention. Now, the tables have turned and its Labour constituencies in the Red Wall that are some of the most competitive in the country. But it won’t be easy for Labour to bring these voters back on side, says Heath.

    Even after the great implosion of the Conservatives, the votes haven’t gone back to Labour. So, it’s hard to rebuild those connections once they’ve come undone.

    Meanwhile, Rosie Campbell, professor of politics at King’s College London, warns that we can’t presume to know what middle-class voters will do either.

    The backlash of the middle class in some areas against the Conservatives in what you would expect to be traditional Conservative heartlands is really interesting. And I think what it’s showing is that social change and demographic change are shifting our political landscape.

    Pay attention to the middle-class vote in the next election.
    Shutterstock/William Barton

    All this means that British politics is more fractured than ever, according to John Curtice, senior research fellow at the National Centre for Social Research.

    It looks as though our politics isn’t two-party politics now, and it’s never looked less like two-party politics at any stage since 1945 … therefore there are many potential options as to how things might play out.

    One of those options is a radical disruption to the class system itself, potentially triggered by artificial intelligence. A question that Curtice is asking himself:

    Will class inequality still be articulated through the difference between people in working-class jobs and those in middle-class jobs, or those people who are very much at the creative end of middle-class jobs, who AI are probably not going to be able to replace, and those who are not quite in the same position?

    In other words, AI has the potential to split the middle class and redefine the entire occupational structure of the UK. What will that do to our political preferences? It’s all to play for.

    For more analysis on what else could shape the way class and politics interact in the future, listen to the full episode of Know Your Place: what happened to class in British politics on The Conversation Documentaries.

    A transcript is available on Apple Podcasts.

    Know Your Place: what happened to class in British politics is produced and mixed by Anouk Millet for The Conversation. It’s supported by the National Centre for Social Research.

    Newsclips in the episode from Guardian News, BBC News, Nigel Farage, David Boothroyd, CBS News and theipaper.

    Listen to The Conversation Documentaries via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here.

    Rosie Campbell receives funding from the ESRC, the UKRI andThe Leverhulme Trust. John Curtice receives funding from UKRI-ESRC. Vladimir Bortun, Geoffrey Evans, Paula Surridge and Oliver Heath do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Nigel Farage, AI and the revolt of the squeezed middle: class politics is about to get messier than ever – https://theconversation.com/nigel-farage-ai-and-the-revolt-of-the-squeezed-middle-class-politics-is-about-to-get-messier-than-ever-242628

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: I research sexual perversions and paraphilias – here’s what we’ve learned about them

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Griffiths, Director of the International Gaming Research Unit and Professor of Behavioural Addiction, Nottingham Trent University

    Hollywood actor Armie Hammer was accused of sending messages detailing cannibalistic fantasies in 2021. DFree/Shutterstock

    After allegedly sending messages detailing cannibalistic fetishes, Hollywood actor Armie Hammer hopes to relaunch his career with a new podcast and movie.

    Following the 2021 social media cannibal scandal, Hammer was also accused of rape and abuse by various women, but consistently denied any criminal behaviour and was not charged.

    Now, it seems, Hammer is laughing off the cannibalism allegations. Speaking to his first podcast guest, Tom Arnold, Hammer says, “I’m not gonna lie. I’m just like, Hey, I’m a cannibal!”

    But being sexually aroused by the fantasy – or reality – of cannibalism is real. I should know, as it’s one of the subjects I discuss in my latest book Sexual Perversions and Paraphilias: An A-Z

    Paraphilias are uncommon types of sexual expression often described as sexual deviations, sexual perversions or disorders of sexual preference.

    They are typically accompanied by intense sexual arousal to unconventional or non-sexual stimuli such as enemas (klismaphilia), statues (agalmatophilia), teeth (odontophilia) and vomit (emetophilia).

    To many people paraphilias may seem bizarre or socially unacceptable, representing the extreme end of the sexual continuum – and in some cases, such as zoophilia (having sex with animals) and necrophilia (having sex with dead people), may be illegal.

    Paraphilias may be laughed off, dismissed or leave some people disgusted, but there’s a pressing need for more research into uncommon sexual behaviour given how little we know.

    Sexual fantasies and behaviour are a fundamental part of the human experience. What is considered immoral or even illegal changes according to the social and temporal context. But whatever sexual desires are considered illicit or depraved in a particular time and place are also stigmatised.

    Researching paraphilias, even the most distasteful or criminal, is essential to help safeguard vulnerable groups. Research can also help minimise the discrimination faced by those with uncommon sexual interests, helping ensure their access to sexual health care and psychological support, which can be lacking.

    Vorarephilia

    Vorarephilia – or “vore” – refers to being sexually aroused by the idea of being eaten, eating another person or observing this process for sexual gratification.

    Most of the fantasies of vorarephiliacs involve being the ones eaten. Devouring someone could be viewed as the ultimate act of dominance by a predator and the ultimate act of submission by the prey.

    The most infamous vorarephiliac is arguably Armin Meiwes from Germany.

    Meiwes had allegedly been fantasising about cannibalism since his childhood and frequented cannibal fetish websites. He posted around 60 online adverts asking if anyone would like to be eaten by him.

    In March 2002, Bernd Jürgen Brandes responded to Meiwes. They met up only once. Meiwes bit off Brandes’ penis, which the two of them cooked and ate.

    Brandes was videotaped being stabbed to death by Meiwes in his bath. The body was then stored for Meiwes to eat.

    Meiwes was eventually convicted of murder and imprisoned for life. However, it’s worth nothing that although some paraphilias are illegal, most cause no psychological or behavioural problems when they are engaged by consenting adults.

    Dacryphilia

    Dacryphilia is getting sexual arousal from seeing someone cry.

    I have published a number of studies on dacryphilia. One involved interviews with eight dacryphiles: six women and two men, from the US, UK, Romania and Belgium.

    It showed there were sub-types of dacryphilia, even among such a small group. Based on the interviews, I identified three types of dacryphile.

    Compassionate dacryphiles are sexually aroused by the compassion of comforting a crier.

    Dominant or submissive dacryphiles are sexually aroused by either causing tears in a consenting submissive partner or by being made to cry by a consenting dominant partner.

    “Curled lip” dacryphiles are sexually aroused by the curling of a protruded bottom lip during crying.

    Eproctophilia

    Eproctophilia involves being sexually aroused by flatulence.

    In 2013, I published the first case study of an eproctophile. The case concerned a 22-year-old single man, Brad*, an American from Illinois.

    Brad recalled that in middle school he had a crush on a girl who had farted in the class. Brad said:

    This blew my mind [I] knew by simple biology that girls farted, but hearing that the girl I had been fawning over was capable of such a thing sparked a strange interest in me.

    Brad first engaged in an eproctophilic act with a male friend in his mid-teens. Up to that point he had considered himself heterosexual. However, this changed when he heard his male friend fart.

    Brad said it was “appealing in sound” and that he began fixating on it. He set up a bet with the wager being the right to fart in the loser’s face for a week. He continued to lose such bets once every few weeks for about two years.

    Apotemnophilia

    Apotemnophilia refers to being sexually aroused by the fantasy or reality of being an amputee.

    Some apotemnophiles may pretend to be amputees but, for a minority, the behaviour involves obsessive scheming to convince a surgeon to perform a medically unnecessary amputation.

    To most people, this might seem like a type of masochism, but case studies suggest that there is no erotisation of pain – only of the healed amputated stump.

    Salirophilia

    Salirophilia is sexual arousal from soiling or dishevelling someone attractive, which can include tearing or damaging the desired person’s clothing, covering them in mud or filth or messing up their hair or make-up.

    My 2019 case study involved Jeff*, a 58-year-old Australian heterosexual. Jeff recounted that when he was young he wanted to masturbate in strange places such as lying under a cabinet in a dirty garage.

    Jeff said that he engaged in solitary salirophilic practices regularly but very infrequently with female partners because it was difficult to find like-minded women.

    He was also a fan of the television show Fear Factor in which contestants perform revolting tasks for prize money, such as eating rotting food or being submerged in foul fluids. These were a source of sexual arousal for Jeff. He told me: “I just find the defilement of an attractive woman’s body erotic.”

    *The names of case study participants in this article have been changed.

    Dr. Mark Griffiths has received research funding from a wide range of organizations including the Economic and Social Research Council, the British Academy and the Responsibility in Gambling Trust. He has also carried out consultancy for numerous gambling companies in the area of player protection, social responsibility and responsible gaming.. Views expressed here are his own and not those of these funding bodies.

    – ref. I research sexual perversions and paraphilias – here’s what we’ve learned about them – https://theconversation.com/i-research-sexual-perversions-and-paraphilias-heres-what-weve-learned-about-them-238446

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: As the stars of hip-hop’s golden age approach their golden years, some confront questions about whether old blood can make new music

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By A.D. Carson, Associate Professor of Hip-Hop, University of Virginia

    52-year-old rapper Common performs on Sept. 11, 2024, in Atlanta. Paras Griffin/Getty Images

    It’s always awkward telling people what I do for a living. I’m a rapper. I also work as a professor of hip-hop.

    I work at the intersection of artmaking and academic research. I write music as part of a greater effort to challenge antiquated ideas about learning, teaching and expertise.

    But I assume the awkwardness in conversations about work is related to stereotypes of hip-hop culture. Among many, one of those assumptions is that hip-hop is only made for and by young people.

    It’s no surprise that ageism exists in and about hip-hop culture; in the U.S., ageism is everywhere. But I would argue that ageism in hip-hop is especially strong because the first generation of rappers is only now reaching their golden years.

    New rap categories

    In August 2024, music producer 9th Wonder proposed a new “Adult Contemporary” category for rap music. A month prior, 52-year-old Common and 54-year-old producer Pete Rock had released “The Auditorium, Vol. 1.”

    In response to 9th Wonder, legendary hip-hop artist Q-Tip warned on the social platform X that hip-hop fans might be turned off by a category with “adult” in the name. He suggested “Traditional Hip-Hop” instead, arguing that the music should all appear in “one pot,” lest it turn off younger listeners.

    Whether it’s called Adult Contemporary or Traditional Hip-Hop, several hip-hop legends have recently released new music that could fit into this category. In July 2024, the legendary lyricist Rakim, who’s 56 years old, released “G.O.D.’S NETWORK (REB7RTH),” his first album in 15 years. Two months later, 54-year-old MC Lyte released “1 of 1,” her ninth studio album, and 56-year-old LL Cool J released “The Force,” his 14th studio album and his first in 11 years.

    Growing pains

    Since hip-hop emerged as a cultural force more than 50 years ago, people still seem to pigeonhole rap as music made by and for young people.

    And it’s true that in hip-hop’s early days, teenagers were at the forefront of the fledgling movement.

    A 1973 back-to-school party organized by a 15-year-old girl from the Bronx named Cindy Campbell is often credited with birthing hip-hop. Grand Wizzard Theodore was just 12 years old when he invented record scratching in 1977. The hip-hop careers of artists like Roxanne Shanté, Run-DMC and Ice Cube all began when they were teens.

    Being closely intertwined with the perception of youth culture isn’t necessarily a good thing. It can compel critics to treat the music and its practitioners less seriously.

    Rappers, no matter their age, can be dismissed or treated as childish or immature.

    Call it growing pains: Unlike, say, classical or country, 50 years is a blip in the history of music. And for much of that time, critics regarded hip-hop as a passing fad. Then it was seen as an emergent subculture.

    It’s only been a category at the Grammys since 1989, and only recently has it been recognized as a commercial and cultural force with a global reach.

    Nowadays, equating hip-hop with youth culture confines it to an arena it has long outgrown.

    Imposter syndrome grows

    Nonetheless, as rappers age, some can seem uncomfortable about participating in a form that can be so easily dismissed.

    In 2015, filmmaker Paul Iannacchino Jr. released a documentary, “Adult Rappers,” about working-class rap artists.

    All the people interviewed for the film rap professionally but aren’t famous. They are mostly men. Most of them admit that they sidestep questions about what they do for a living. One unshakable takeaway is the embarrassment about their age.

    Even famous rappers aren’t immune to this feeling. Before his move to instrumental flute music, André 3000, one of the greatest rappers of all time, lamented becoming the old rapper still making music beyond his prime.

    “I remember, at like 25, saying, ‘I don’t want to be a 40-year-old rapper,’” he told The New York Times in 2014. “I’m 39 now, and I’m still standing by that. I’m such a fan that I don’t want to infiltrate it with old blood.”

    André 3000 has been a gifted lyricist for decades, and remains so. If he feels this way, I can imagine that many other artists might feel that, at a certain age, they don’t belong to the culture anymore.

    Or the culture no longer belongs to them.

    Andre 3000, who’s 49 years old, has worried that his ‘old blood’ wouldn’t jibe with rap culture.
    Per Ole Hagen/Redferns via Getty Images

    Forever young?

    Despite the fact that audiences have aged alongside the artists, it can still feel like there’s pressure to stay tapped in to youth culture, lest they create music that, to quote André 3000 more recently, lacks “fresh ingredients.”

    This might encourage some aging artists to attempt to maintain a youthful sheen that will resonate with young audiences. Think of it as a pop culture version of Oscar Wilde’s novel “The Picture of Dorian Gray.”

    In the novel, a man sells his soul for youth. Rather than physically aging, a painting of him ages instead, taking on the physical signs of his transgressions and pleasures.

    It’s still easy to think of hip-hop as confined to a frame that bears all the marks of youthful longings, rebellion and sins: juvenile vitality, sprightly beauty and vigorous hedonism.

    The expectations lead audiences to assume all artists have similar youthful aims and concerns. They can also lead artists to perform like they’re young and write about the concerns they had as youngsters, despite their respective ages. The hip-hop artists who can’t or choose not to pretend to be “forever young” are expected to “evolve” into moguls, actors, podcasters or reality TV personalities.

    Of course, those assumptions only end up limiting what artists of all ages can accomplish.

    Rappers at whatever level of celebrity you observe, famous and not famous, continue to create while embracing the inevitability of age. Nas, whose debut album, “Illmatic,” was released in 1994, has had an outstanding run of albums in the 2020s.

    Jay-Z’s “4:44” showcased the rapper’s changing sensibilities that have seemingly evolved as he has aged.

    North Carolina duo Little Brother’s entire catalog displays awareness of the absurdity of avoiding adulthood – outstandingly so, I might add, on their 2019 album, “May the Lord Watch.”

    Even emerging rappers like Conway the Machine and 7xvethegenius seem to be able to balance burgeoning careers without caving to youth-obsessed pretenses.

    Creating new, cleverly named musical categories to sidestep biases against aging probably won’t solve the issue. In hip-hop, as in so many American industries, ageism isn’t going away.

    For that reason, my embrace of being an adult rapper will probably continue to make for awkward introductions.

    But I’d rather have that conversation than pretend I’m something I’m not.

    A.D. Carson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. As the stars of hip-hop’s golden age approach their golden years, some confront questions about whether old blood can make new music – https://theconversation.com/as-the-stars-of-hip-hops-golden-age-approach-their-golden-years-some-confront-questions-about-whether-old-blood-can-make-new-music-240077

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Political bickering and policy uncertainty take a toll on business investment, research shows

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Charles Sims, Professor of Economics, University of Tennessee

    Factionalism isn’t great for the bottom line. Sefa Ozel/E+ via Getty Images

    Partisan squabbling isn’t just annoying – it’s also bad for business.

    That’s what my colleagues and I found in a recent study on how uncertainty in environmental policy affects business investment.

    First, we analyzed more than 300 million newspaper articles, looking for keywords related to environmental policy uncertainty. We found that this uncertainty spikes around election seasons and has nearly doubled over the past decade.

    Then we looked at business investment rates – a common way to gauge a company’s financial health – at companies in affected sectors, such as those in the agriculture, mining, energy and automotive industries. We found that environmental policy uncertainty lowered those companies’ business investment rates by 0.010%.

    That might not sound like a lot, but as economists like me know, small sums add up over time.

    For example, the rise in environmental policy uncertainty in the run-up to the 2008 presidential election was linked with a one-time drop of the investment rate of 25% for companies affected by environmental policy, we found. This effect was larger than the uncertainty associated with defense, health and finance policy.

    But my team also found a silver lining. Policy uncertainty had much less of an effect on business investment when control of Congress was divided and policy changes required bipartisan support, we discovered.

    When the same political party controlled both chambers of Congress, environmental policy uncertainty was associated with a 0.013% decrease in investment rates. But when Congress was split, this decrease shrank to a much smaller 0.002%.

    Why it matters

    Because policy uncertainty tends to spike around elections, our results suggest that the current political environment is creating headwinds for business investment.

    Our study also suggests that policies designed to spur business investment may be less effective than previously thought, because of the uncertainty they introduce.

    Take, for example, the Inflation Reduction Act, passed in 2021, and the bipartisan infrastructure law of 2022. Both were crafted to encourage investment in clean-energy technologies.

    But uncertainty over whether these packages would pass in the first place – and, if so, what these policies would include – may have deterred investment before they went into effect. And uncertainty about what aspects of the laws will continue after the election could also depress business investment.

    A degree of uncertainty may be built into the democratic process. After all, the faster and more secretive a government is, the less accountable it is to the public. If you think of it that way, some uncertainty is an unavoidable cost of a healthy policymaking process.

    Our study puts a price tag on these costs and reminds policymakers that political infighting is a drag on the economy. Our results do suggest one promising path forward: bipartisanship.

    What’s next

    Because there’s so much variety in environmental policies, our team is now doing research to see whether businesses respond differently to uncertainty in “carrot” policies – such as subsidies or tax breaks – versus “stick” policies, such as fines or other punishments.

    Answering this question will help policymakers minimize the effects of uncertainty.

    It’s also an open question whether newspaper articles convey information to business leaders or simply reflect the information they already have. If it’s the latter, media coverage may not be a great measure of the uncertainty businesses face.

    To address this concern, we’re working to develop ways to measure uncertainty based on earnings call transcripts instead of newspaper articles. These could be a more direct way to gauge the uncertainties influencing business decisions.

    The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work.

    Charles Sims does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Political bickering and policy uncertainty take a toll on business investment, research shows – https://theconversation.com/political-bickering-and-policy-uncertainty-take-a-toll-on-business-investment-research-shows-242657

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Svalbard Global Seed Vault evokes epic imagery and controversy because of the symbolic value of seeds

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Adriana Craciun, Professor of English and Emma MacLachlan Metcalf Chair of Humanities, Boston University

    The entrance to the Svalbard Global Seed Vault. Martin Zwick/REDA&CO/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    Two-thirds of the world’s food comes today from just nine plants: sugar cane, maize (corn), rice, wheat, potatoes, soybeans, oil-palm fruit, sugar beet and cassava. In the past, farmers grew tens of thousands of crop varieties around the world. This biodiversity protected agriculture from crop losses caused by plant diseases and climate change.

    Today, seed banks around the world are doing much of the work of saving crop varieties that could be essential resources under future growing conditions. The Svalbard Global Seed Vault in Norway supports them all. It is the world’s most famous backup site for seeds that are more precious than data.

    Tens of thousands of new seeds from around the world arrived at the seed vault on Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, in mid-October 2024. This was one of the largest deposits in the vault’s 16-year history.

    And on Oct. 31, crop scientists Cary Fowler and Geoffrey Hawtin, who played key roles in creating the Global Seed Vault, received the US$500,000 World Food Prize, which recognizes work that has helped increase the supply, quality or accessibility of food worldwide.

    The Global Seed Vault has been politically controversial since it opened in 2008. It is the most visible site in a global agricultural research network associated with the United Nations and funders such as the World Bank.

    These organizations supported the Green Revolution – a concerted effort to introduce high-yielding seeds to developing nations in the mid-20th century. This effort saved millions of people from starvation, but it shifted agriculture in a technology-intensive direction. The Global Seed Vault has become a lightning rod for critiques of that effort and its long-term impacts.

    I have visited the vault and am completing a book about connections between scientific research on seeds and ideas about immortality over centuries. My research shows that the Global Seed Vault’s controversies are in part inspired by religious associations that predate it. But these cultural beliefs also remain essential for the vault’s support and influence and thus for its goal of protecting biodiversity.

    The Global Seed Vault gives scientists the tools they may need to breed crops that can cope with a changing climate.

    Backup for a global network

    Several hundred million seeds from thousands of species of agricultural plants live inside the Global Seed Vault. They come from 80 nations and are tucked away in special metallic pouches that keep them dry.

    The vault is designed to prolong their dormancy at zero degrees Fahrenheit (-18 degrees Celsius) in three ice-covered caverns inside a sandstone mountain. The air is so cold inside that when I entered the vault, my eyelashes and the inside of my nose froze.

    The Global Seed Vault is owned by Norway and run by the Nordic Genetic Resources Centre. It was created under a U.N. treaty governing over 1,700 seed banks, where seeds are stored away from farms, to serve as what the U.N. calls “the ultimate insurance policy for the world’s food supply.”

    This network enables nations, nongovernmental organizations, scientists and farmers to save and exchange seeds for research, breeding and replanting. The vault is the backup collection for all of these seed banks, storing their duplicate seeds at no charge to them.

    The seed vault’s cultural meaning

    The vault’s Arctic location and striking appearance contribute to both its public appeal and its controversies.

    Svalbard is often described as a remote, frozen wasteland. For conspiracy theorists, early visits to the Global Seed Vault by billionaires such as Bill Gates and George Soros, and representatives from Google and Monsanto, signaled that the vault had a secret purpose or benefited global elites.

    In fact, however, the archipelago of Svalbard has daily flights to other Norwegian cities. Its cosmopolitan capital, Longyearbyen, is home to 2,700 people from 50 countries, drawn by ecotourism and scientific research – hardly a well-hidden site for covert activities.

    The vault’s entrance features a striking installation by Norwegian artist Dyveke Sanne. An illuminated kaleidoscope of mirrors, this iconic artwork glows in the long Arctic night and draws many tourists.

    Because of its mission to preserve seeds through potential disasters, media regularly describe the Global Seed Vault as the “doomsday vault,” or a “modern Noah’s Ark.” Singled out based on its location, appearance and associations with Biblical myths such as the Flood, the Garden of Eden and the apocalypse, the vault has acquired a public meaning unlike that of any other seed bank.

    The politics of seed conservation

    One consequence is that the vault often serves as a lightning rod for critics who view seed conservation as the latest stage in a long history of Europeans removing natural resources from developing nations. But these critiques don’t really reflect how the Global Seed Vault works.

    The vault and its sister seed banks don’t diminish cultivation of seeds grown by farmers in fields. The two methods complement one another, and seed depositors retain ownership of their seeds.

    Another misleading criticism argues that storing seeds at Svalbard prevents these plants from adapting to climate change and could render them useless in a warmer future. But storing seeds in a dormant state actually mirrors plants’ own survival strategy.

    Dormancy is the mysterious plant behavior that “protects against an unpredictable future,” according to biologist Anthony Trewavas. Plants are experts in coping with climate unpredictability by essentially hibernating.

    Seed dormancy allows plants to hedge their bets on the future; the Global Seed Vault extends this state for decades or longer. While varieties in the field may become extinct, their banked seeds live to fight another day.

    Storing more than seeds

    In 2017, a delegation of Quechua farmers from the Peruvian Andes traveled to Svalbard to deposit seeds of their sacred potato varieties in the vault. In songs and prayers, they said goodbye to the seeds as their “loved ones” and “endangered children.” “We’re not just leaving genes, but also a family,” one farmer told Svalbard officials.

    The farmers said the vault would protect what they called their “Indigenous biocultural heritage” – an interweaving of scientific and cultural value, and of plants and people, that for the farmers evoked the sacred.

    People from around the world have sought to attach their art to the Global Seed Vault for a similar reason. In 2018, the Svalbard Seed Cultures Ark began depositing artworks that attach stories to seeds in a nearby mine.

    Pope Francis sent an envoy with a handmade copy of a book reflecting on the pope’s message of hope to the world during the COVID-19 pandemic. Japanese sculptor Mitsuaki Tanabe created a 9-meter-long steel grain of rice for the vault’s opening and was permitted to place a miniature version inside.

    Seeds sleeping in Svalbard are far from their home soil, but each one is enveloped in an invisible web of the microbes and fungi that traveled with it. These microbiomes are still interacting with each seed in ways scientists are just beginning to understand.

    I see the Global Seed Vault as a lively and fragile place, powered not by money or technology but by the strange power of seeds. The World Food Prize once again highlights their vital promise.

    Adriana Craciun does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Svalbard Global Seed Vault evokes epic imagery and controversy because of the symbolic value of seeds – https://theconversation.com/svalbard-global-seed-vault-evokes-epic-imagery-and-controversy-because-of-the-symbolic-value-of-seeds-240086

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Osteoporosis, the silent disease, can shorten your life − here’s how to prevent fractures and keep bones healthy

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ting Zhang, Research Scholar of Orthopedics, University of Pittsburgh

    With some simple lifestyle changes, you can lower your risk of osteoporosis. Capifrutta/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    Because there are typically no symptoms until the first fracture occurs, osteoporosis is considered a silent disease. Some call it a silent killer.

    Osteoporosis is a bone disease characterized by decreased bone density and strength, leading to fragile, brittle bones that increase the risk of fractures, especially in the spine, hips and wrists.

    The National Osteoporosis Foundation estimates that more than 10 million Americans have osteoporosis. Another 43 million have low bone mass, which is the precursor to osteoporosis. By 2030, the number of adults with osteoporosis or low bone mass is estimated to increase by more than 30%, to 71 million.

    The reasons for the increase include lifestyle issues, particularly smoking, lack of physical activity and alcohol abuse. Our aging population, along with the insufficient attention paid to this disease, are also why osteoporosis is on the rise.

    An illustration of osteoporosis of the spine. Note the sponge-like tissue, which is partially destroyed.
    BSIP/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    If you are older, it may be discouraging to read those statistics. But as orthopedic specialists who have studied this disease, we know that osteoporosis is not inevitable. The key to having healthy bones for a lifetime is to take some simple preventive measures – and the earlier, the better.

    Although the symptoms are not obvious early on, certain signs will indicate your bones are becoming weaker. The most serious complications of osteoporosis are fractures, which can lead to chronic pain, hospitalization, disability, depression, reduced quality of life and increased mortality. Worldwide, osteoporosis causes nearly 9 million fractures annually. That’s one osteoporotic fracture every three seconds.

    Height loss, back pain

    Minor bumps or falls may lead to fractures, especially in the hip, wrist or spine. These types of fractures are often the first sign of the disease.

    If you notice that you’re getting shorter, the cause could be compression fractures in the spine; this too is a common symptom of osteoporosis.

    Although it’s typical for most people to lose height as they age – about 1 to 1½ inches (2.5 to 3.8 centimeters) over a lifetime – those with osteoporosis who have multiple spinal fractures could lose 2 to 3 inches or more in a relatively rapid time frame.

    Curved posture, or noticeable changes in posture, may lead to a hunched back, which could be a sign that your spine is weakening and losing density.

    Persistent back pain is another indicator – this too is the result of tiny fractures or compression of the spine.

    A healthy diet and exercise are two ways to build up bone density.

    Calcium and vitamin D

    Osteoporosis cannot be completely cured, but certain lifestyle and dietary factors can lower your risk.

    Calcium and vitamin D are essential for bone health. Calcium helps maintain strong bones, while vitamin D assists in calcium absorption. Women over age 50 and men over 70 should consume at least 1,200 milligrams of calcium daily from food and, if necessary, supplements.

    The easy way to get calcium is through dairy products. Milk, yogurt and cheese are among the richest sources. One cup of milk provides about 300 milligrams of calcium, one-fourth of the daily requirement. If you are vegan, calcium is in many plant-based foods, including soy, beans, peas, lentils, oranges, almonds and dark leafy greens.

    Adults should aim for two to three servings of calcium-rich foods daily. Consuming them throughout the day with meals helps improve absorption.

    Vitamin D is obtained mostly from supplements and sunlight, which is the easiest way to get the recommended dose. Your body will produce enough vitamin D if you expose your arms, legs and face to direct sunlight for 10 to 30 minutes between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m., two to three times a week.

    Although it’s best to wear short-sleeve shirts and shorts during this brief period, it’s okay to wear sunglasses and apply sunscreen to your face. Sunlight through a window won’t have the same effect – glass reduces absorption of the UV rays needed for vitamin D production. People with darker skin, or those living in less sunny regions, may need more sunlight to get the same effect.

    If a doctor has given you a diagnosis of osteoporosis, it’s possible the calcium and vitamin D that you’re getting through food and sun exposure alone is not enough; you should ask your doctor if you need medication.

    Chickpeas, sesame seeds and dark green vegetables, such as kale, arugula and broccoli, are good sources of calcium.

    Dance, jog, lift weights and avoid alcohol

    Regular exercise is an excellent activity that can help stave off osteoporosis. Weight-bearing exercises, such as brisk walking, jogging and dancing, are great for increasing bone density. Strength training, such as lifting weights, helps with stability and flexibility, which reduces the risk of falling.

    Aim for 30 minutes of weight-bearing exercise at least four days a week, combined with muscle-strengthening exercises at least twice a week.

    Particularly for women, who lose bone density during and after menopause, regular exercise is critical. Working out prior to menopause will reduce the risk of osteoporosis in your later years.

    And avoid harmful habits – smoking and heavy alcohol consumption can weaken bone density and increase the risk of fractures.

    Fall prevention strategies and balance training are crucial and can help reduce the risk of fractures.

    Screening and treatment

    Women should start osteoporosis screening at age 65, according to the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. Men should consider screening if they have risk factors for osteoporosis, which include smoking, alcohol use disorder, some chronic diseases such as diabetes, and age. Men over 70 are at higher risk.

    Medical imaging such as a bone density scan and spinal X-rays can help confirm osteoporosis and detect compression fractures. These basic tests, combined with age and medical history, are enough to make a clear diagnosis.

    Managing osteoporosis is a long-term process that requires ongoing commitment to lifestyle changes. Recognizing the early warning signs and making these proactive lifestyle changes is the first step to prevent the disease and keep your bones healthy.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Osteoporosis, the silent disease, can shorten your life − here’s how to prevent fractures and keep bones healthy – https://theconversation.com/osteoporosis-the-silent-disease-can-shorten-your-life-heres-how-to-prevent-fractures-and-keep-bones-healthy-241547

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: I’m a Muslim immigrant and a psychiatrist living in Michigan – I haven’t decided how to vote yet

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Farha Abassi, Assistant Professor of Psychiatry, Michigan State University

    My three daughters and I arrived in Michigan from Pakistan in 2000.

    Moving here was my choice, and I followed the legal process. Before the move, I had often been to the United States. I was familiar with the culture and spoke fluent English, so I thought I was prepared.

    Resuming my career as a physician in the U.S. was arduous, but I finally passed all the qualifying exams and completed a psychiatry residency at Michigan State University in 2006. After finishing my studies, I stayed on as faculty.

    Of course, there is nothing new or particularly unique about my family’s experience. Immigration, whether it is out of choice or forced by conflict, has always been part of the American experience. After all, the U.S. Constitution was signed by seven first-generation immigrants.

    Experts will tell you that immigration makes our country stronger economically, culturally and in fields like science and medicine. Since I’m a doctor, I’m well aware that 26% of licensed U.S. physicians and surgeons are immigrants.

    But it is also true that immigrants like me face stresses that harm our
    psychical and mental health.

    I teach cultural psychiatry to medical students and residents, specifically how to provide culturally appropriate care to Muslim patients. After more than 20 years in Michigan, I’m deeply rooted in the Muslim and immigrant community, and I’ve seen firsthand how anxious and uncertain my community is about the 2024 presidential election.

    Panic attacks and depression

    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has called immigrants “bloodthirsty criminals” and the “most violent people on Earth.” He claims that immigrants were “poisoning the blood of our country.” Research shows, and I’ve seen personally, how this kind of talk can cause anxiety and depression in immigrants both undocumented and legal.

    Undocumented immigrants and their families, who live in precarious conditions and in fear of being deported, are especially vulnerable to Trump’s calls for mass deportations.

    History has taught us that a politician’s hateful words can lead to violence.

    In the first half of 2024, the Michigan Chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations documented 239 complaints of discrimination against Muslims, an 81% increase over the same period in 2023. In the report, CAIR-MI Executive Director Dawud Walid attributed the uptick to “policies of elected officials, rhetoric of candidates running for office, along with victim blaming by some political pundits.”

    Adding to the situation are the deepening crises in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, which are making Muslims in Michigan, especially those with relatives in the Middle East, reel with palpable grief.

    This rise in Islamophobia and fear of an uncertain future is taking a toll. American Muslims are twice as likely to attempt suicide compared with people from other faiths.

    Anxiety in the voting booth

    Like 73% of all Americans, immigrants are anxious about the election.

    With the politicization of baseless claims of undocumented immigrants voting, the fact is that naturalized citizens – who have every right to take part in the election – are a formidable voting bloc, making up 1 in 10 of the nation’s eligible voters and about 5% in Michigan.

    What’s more, naturalized citizens tend to vote at higher rates than native-born citizens.

    Still, for many Muslims in Michigan, it is hard to know how to vote this year. I don’t trust either of the major parties.

    Michigan’s Muslims are feeling devalued and disenfranchised.

    A key Arab American political action committee based in Michigan refused to endorse either candidate this cycle. Although the PAC typically backs Democrats, this year it said “neither candidate represents our hopes and dreams as Arab Americans.”

    In late September, a national group of three dozen Muslim American scholars and imams signed an open letter calling on Muslims not to vote for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

    “We want to be absolutely clear,” the letter reads, “don’t stay home and skip voting. This year, make a statement by voting third party for the presidential ticket.”

    A group called Listen to Michigan gained attention during the primaries by attracting more than 100,000 people to vote “uncommitted” as a protest against President Joe Biden’s funding of the war in Gaza. The group has stopped short of endorsing Harris but urged voters “not to cast their ballot for anyone but her.”

    Still, some of my neighbors have decided to back Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

    I know my vote is my voice, and I fully intend to participate in the electoral process. But I can’t trust any of the candidates to create a safe haven for my family – a place where my daughters and I can thrive and live our American dream.

    Farha Abassi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. I’m a Muslim immigrant and a psychiatrist living in Michigan – I haven’t decided how to vote yet – https://theconversation.com/im-a-muslim-immigrant-and-a-psychiatrist-living-in-michigan-i-havent-decided-how-to-vote-yet-241333

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How can Jupiter have no surface? A dive into a planet so big, it could swallow 1,000 Earths

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Benjamin Roulston, Assistant Professor of Physics, Clarkson University

    A photo of Jupiter taken by NASA’s Juno spacecraft in September 2023. NASA/JPL-Caltech/SwRI/MSSS, image processing by Tanya Oleksuik

    Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to curiouskidsus@theconversation.com.

    Why does Jupiter look like it has a surface – even though it doesn’t have one? – Sejal, age 7, Bangalore, India

    The planet Jupiter has no solid ground – no surface, like the grass or dirt you tread here on Earth. There’s nothing to walk on, and no place to land a spaceship.

    But how can that be? If Jupiter doesn’t have a surface, what does it have? How can it hold together?

    Even as a professor of physics who studies all kinds of unusual phenomena, I realize the concept of a world without a surface is difficult to fathom. Yet much about Jupiter remains a mystery, even as NASA’s robotic probe Juno begins its ninth year orbiting this strange planet.

    Jupiter’s mass is two-and-a-half times that of all the other planets in the solar system combined.

    First, some facts

    Jupiter, the fifth planet from the Sun, is between Mars and Saturn. It’s the largest planet in the solar system, big enough for more than 1,000 Earths to fit inside, with room to spare.

    While the four inner planets of the solar system – Mercury, Venus, Earth and Mars – are all made of solid, rocky material, Jupiter is a gas giant with a composition similar to the Sun; it’s a roiling, stormy, wildly turbulent ball of gas. Some places on Jupiter have winds of more than 400 mph (about 640 kilometers per hour), about three times faster than a Category 5 hurricane on Earth.

    A photo of the southern hemisphere of Jupiter, taken by NASA’s Juno spacecraft in 2017.
    NASA/JPL-Caltech/SwRI/MSSS/Gerald Eichstadt/Sean Doran

    Searching for solid ground

    Start from the top of Earth’s atmosphere, go down about 60 miles (roughly 100 kilometers), and the air pressure continuously increases. Ultimately you hit Earth’s surface, either land or water.

    Compare that with Jupiter: Start near the top of its mostly hydrogen and helium atmosphere, and like on Earth, the pressure increases the deeper you go. But on Jupiter, the pressure is immense.

    As the layers of gas above you push down more and more, it’s like being at the bottom of the ocean – but instead of water, you’re surrounded by gas. The pressure becomes so intense that the human body would implode; you would be squashed.

    Go down 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers), and the hot, dense gas begins to behave strangely. Eventually, the gas turns into a form of liquid hydrogen, creating what can be thought of as the largest ocean in the solar system, albeit an ocean without water.

    Go down another 20,000 miles (about 32,000 kilometers), and the hydrogen becomes more like flowing liquid metal, a material so exotic that only recently, and with great difficulty, have scientists reproduced it in the laboratory. The atoms in this liquid metallic hydrogen are squeezed so tightly that its electrons are free to roam.

    Keep in mind that these layer transitions are gradual, not abrupt; the transition from normal hydrogen gas to liquid hydrogen and then to metallic hydrogen happens slowly and smoothly. At no point is there a sharp boundary, solid material or surface.

    An illustration of Jupiter’s interior layers. One bar is approximately equal to the air pressure at sea level on Earth.
    NASA/JPL-Caltech

    Scary to the core

    Ultimately, you’d reach the core of Jupiter. This is the central region of Jupiter’s interior, and not to be confused with a surface.

    Scientists are still debating the exact nature of the core’s material. The most favored model: It’s not solid, like rock, but more like a hot, dense and possibly metallic mixture of liquid and solid.

    The pressure at Jupiter’s core is so immense that it would be like 100 million Earth atmospheres pressing down on you – or two Empire State buildings on top of each square inch of your body.

    But pressure wouldn’t be your only problem. A spacecraft trying to reach Jupiter’s core would be melted by the extreme heat – 35,000 degrees Fahrenheit (20,000 degrees Celsius). That’s three times hotter than the surface of the Sun.

    An image taken of Jupiter by Voyager 1. Note the Great Red Spot, a storm large enough to hold three Earths.
    NASA/JPL

    Jupiter helps Earth

    Jupiter is a weird and forbidding place. But if Jupiter weren’t around, it’s possible human beings might not exist.

    That’s because Jupiter acts as a shield for the inner planets of the solar system, including Earth. With its massive gravitational pull, Jupiter has altered the orbit of asteroids and comets for billions of years.

    Without Jupiter’s intervention, some of that space debris could have crashed into Earth; if one had been a cataclysmic collision, it could have caused an extinction-level event. Just look at what happened to the dinosaurs.

    Maybe Jupiter gave an assist to our existence, but the planet itself is extraordinarily inhospitable to life – at least, life as we know it.

    The same is not the case with a Jupiter moon, Europa, perhaps our best chance to find life elsewhere in the solar system.

    NASA’s Europa Clipper, a robotic probe launching in October 2024, is scheduled to do about 50 fly-bys over that moon to study its enormous underground ocean.

    Could something be living in Europa’s water? Scientists won’t know for a while. Because of Jupiter’s distance from Earth, the probe won’t arrive until April 2030.

    Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

    And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

    Benjamin Roulston does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How can Jupiter have no surface? A dive into a planet so big, it could swallow 1,000 Earths – https://theconversation.com/how-can-jupiter-have-no-surface-a-dive-into-a-planet-so-big-it-could-swallow-1-000-earths-231901

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Visions of development have shifted in Africa over the past two decades: study explores how Rwanda and Ethiopia tried to shape the future

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Barnaby Joseph Dye, Lecturer, King’s College London

    Contemporary economic challenges in Africa appear to be shifting the continent into a new era of development. From COVID-19 to war-induced inflation, many countries in Africa are facing significant economic challenges. The crises of recent years come on top of longer-term increases in debt, especially after the 2014 commodity price shock.

    These circumstances have been the backdrop to recent conflicts, coups, and regime changes. But these contemporary crises follow a period of relatively successful state-led development in the first two decades of the 21st century, resulting in a hype about the new “African lions” and the emergence of an “Africa rising” narrative.

    Two cases stand out as emblematic of this era: Rwanda’s vision of a Dubai-style financial and service hub, and Ethiopia’s rapid manufacturing and infrastructure ambitions.

    Much has been written about the international factors behind this era of state-led development. The focus has been on the extension of private finance and the growth of “new” lenders such as China, India and Brazil. But these perspectives often overlook important questions. What has inspired ambitious African national plans over the last two decades? What assumptions were made about how development happens and how it should look?

    In new research published in a special issue of a journal, we analyse these modernising visions. We unpick their differences and commonalities using cases from multiple countries.

    Our emphasis is on understanding ideas, beliefs, and norms in shaping development plans. Such perspectives are often overlooked in the study of Africa. Scholars have often presumed that ruling elites are primarily interested in narrow material power or self-enrichment. We argue that ideas and beliefs underpin the goals and content of development plans.

    The research covered in the special issue covers Angola, Eritrea and Tanzania, but in this article we will unpack our analysis of Ethiopia and Rwanda.

    20th century modernist development

    Many of the elements of development this century look like resurgent 20th century “high modernism”. This is a term coined by scholar James Scott to describe top-down, state-led, authoritarian programmes of economic development. These programmes typically used infrastructure and technology to engineer supposedly “backward”, “traditional” people and landscapes into efficient, modern, rational alternatives.

    Perhaps the chief examples here are large dams. Historically, dams were viewed as the hallmark projects of modernisation. They could tame nature and deploy technology, whether electricity or irrigation, to found modern economies and workers. Ghana’s Akosombo Dam is one such project.

    But building dams paused from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s as the World Bank and other major funders withdrew. Dam projects were seen as having too-high social and economic costs and as not performing well. Such negative impacts also generated significant protests.

    Rwanda’s case

    Underpinning Rwanda’s model is a concentrated Leninist-style power structure. The president and associated elites chart the path to progress. The party, with its affiliated companies and investment funds, is all powerful – not solely the state. Rwanda also revived mid-century plans, from dams to an east African railway corridor. Electricity was deemed central, resulting in a rapid, but overambitious five-fold increase in over 15 years.

    This recent period was not just a reproduction of the 1960s, however. It had new elements. A Dubai-style aesthetic is central to the reinvented capital, Kigali, where the goal is to create a new corporate service hub, replete with skyscraper, conference centres, shopping malls and a new international airport. This replaces the 20th century obsession with industrial sites and brutalist concrete.

    Rather than the state-led programmes of the 20th century, pro-market reforms have been incorporated. There’s an embrace of private enterprise, a stock market and investment. The country’s electricity boom was largely enacted by private firms and Rwanda consistently ranks as one of the top countries in the Ease of Doing Business index. It takes hours, not weeks, to set up a company and there’s a speedy regulatory bureaucracy.



    Read more:
    Rwanda is creating shiny, modern cities after the genocide – but this won’t help communities heal from the past

    In some cases, “neoliberal” reforms have been brought in, with private enterprise and investment in previously state-controlled domains. Rwanda embraced corporate investment and ownership while making business-friendly, low-tax reforms. The private sector was given a big role in Rwanda’s boom to build over 40 microhydro plants in 15 years.

    New public management techniques, with individual incentives and civil service targets, were adopted.

    Ethiopia’s case

    Ethiopia focused on investments in large agricultural plantations and industrial parks. The result evoked 20th century modernisation drives. A broad-based infrastructure boom and an industrialisation strategy that moved agricultural produce up the value chain would transform the structure of the economy. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the Addis-Djibouti Railway and other megaprojects became symbols of this vision. The aim was to maintain state control of the commanding heights of the economy (electricity, water, telecommunications and aviation, among others), while building an industrial base that would absorb the surplus agricultural labour.

    This was coupled with investments in education and health. In 2016, Ethiopia had the third highest ratio of public investment to GDP, but also one of the fastest economic growth rates globally.

    Unlike Rwanda, this ideology has not survived. Progress in health, education and income was achieved but political tensions grew. By the mid 2010s, the material reality of people’s livelihoods could no longer keep up with the promises the ruling party had evoked. Dissent was not tolerated and led to mass protests, riots, and the eventual demise of the party. Since 2018, there has been a dramatic shift in ideology and vision with an openness to liberalisation, and a focus away from industrialisation to the service sector.

    Continuity and change

    Overall, our analysis reveals a combination of continuity and change during this period. It marks the triumph of an “African left”, with old titans like Tanzania’s Chama Cha Mapinduzi or Mozambique’s Frelimo joined by new revolutionary parties also inspired by Marxism.

    The language of communism or socialism is not used explicitly. But a belief endures that top-down schemes and mega-infrastructure can catapult people into an “enlightened” future. Structural economic barriers are surmountable through technology and engineering.

    Simultaneously, one cannot escape the language of the Davos establishment about the supremacy of markets, importance of foreign investment and pledges to tackle climate change and poverty. This illustrates the degree to which these illiberal modernisers are connected to international policymaking.

    Our publication conceptualises this pattern of continuity and change, as a 10-point “illiberal modernisers” manifesto. Although holding considerable variation between countries, we argue that these these hegemonic ruling parties shared common goals of transforming society through an elite-defined programme.

    Ultimately, the pattern of continuity and change demonstrates the importance of analysing ideas, beliefs, and values. Elites in Africa, just as elsewhere, are not only interested in power but are influenced by ideas about development.

    Barnaby Joseph Dye receives funding from the Economic and Social Science Research Council (UK).

    Biruk Terrefe received funding from the Heinrich Böll Foundation (Germany).

    – ref. Visions of development have shifted in Africa over the past two decades: study explores how Rwanda and Ethiopia tried to shape the future – https://theconversation.com/visions-of-development-have-shifted-in-africa-over-the-past-two-decades-study-explores-how-rwanda-and-ethiopia-tried-to-shape-the-future-224988

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Namibia’s game-changing 2024 elections: Swapo might face defeat for the first time since independence in 1990

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of Pretoria

    The former liberation movement South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo) has been in firm political control of Namibia since independence in 1990.

    Support for the party in the national assembly and presidential elections reached a high point in November 2014. The 2019 elections marked a turning point, however: Swapo lost its two-thirds-majority in parliament. President Hage Geingob was re-elected with the worst result yet – 56% – from 87% in 2014. This reflected disappointment over the unfulfilled promises he had made. Votes shifted to his Swapo comrade Panduleni Itula. After being expelled from the party in 2020, Itula founded the Independent Patriots for Change.

    Itula, contesting as an “independent candidate” without party nomination, managed to snatch 30% of the votes from Geingob. Swapo’s downward trend was confirmed by a dramatic decline in support in the 2020 regional and local elections.

    Despite these shifting grounds, democracy stood the test of time. The smooth transition following the death of Geingob in February 2024 was a sign of political stability. Previous vice-president Nangolo Mbumba became interim president.

    But Swapo faces a new quality of opposition.

    I have followed and analysed policy in Namibia since independence. In my view, the national assembly and presidential elections of 27 November 2024 signify a new political scenario. For the first time a clear victory for Swapo seems less certain.

    Swapo

    The Swapo election manifesto pays tribute to Geingob. But it doesn’t mention his Harambee Prosperity Plan. Nor does it feature his metaphor of the “Namibian house”, in which nobody is left behind.

    This signifies an abrupt closing of a chapter. Mbumba declared himself a caretaker, not interested in the position for a long term. He therefore does not feature prominently in the election manifesto.

    As decided by the party congress in December 2023 the Swapo presidential candidate is Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, also known as “NNN”. Born in 1952, she was a Swapo Youth League activist from her school days and joined Swapo in exile in the mid-1970s. As a liberation struggle veteran she became part of the party leadership and has been a cabinet member since independence.

    Nandi-Ndaitwah would be the first female Namibian head of state if elected. But she faces strong competition from Itula.

    Namibia’s president is directly elected by a 50% + 1 vote from the electorate. There are several presidential candidates nominated by parties with notable followings. This raises the possibility of no candidate achieving an absolute majority in the first round, for the first time. There would then be a second-round presidential election between the two candidates with most votes.

    While not yet in parliament, Itula’s party, Independent Patriots for Change, made inroads in the 2020 regional and local government elections. In 2019, the Popular Democratic Movement won 16 out of the 96 parliamentary seats, becoming the official opposition. The newcomer Landless People’s Movement won four seats, making it the third strongest party.

    Despite all these recent gradual shifts, hopes for visible transformation were largely unfulfilled. Namibian politics remained business as usual. As Rui Tyitende, a political scientist at the University of Namibia, recently wrote:

    Namibia’s opposition parties are marred by political promiscuity, factionalism, internal conflicts and a perennial struggle for power … Even though Swapo is dysfunctional, the opposition needs to earn the right to govern.

    The manifestos

    This year’s election campaigns started much earlier than usual, testifying to new dynamics. While often lacking substance beyond personalised insults, electioneering remained peaceful. Notably, since independence, Namibia has not recorded a single politically motivated killing.

    Despite early campaigning, party manifestos were released only from mid-September. These kept the media watching out for often dubious promises. Swapo wants to allocate about N$85.7 billion (U$4.9 billion) over five years for mass employment. It does not explain where the funds will come from. But it projects this will create 256,538 jobs.

    The other parties’ manifestos make similarly unrealistic promises. The Independent Patriots for Change and
    the Popular Democratic Movement promise drastic reduction of poverty, unemployment and informal settlements.

    The Landless People’s Movement claims to be Marxist, but includes a commitment to promoting a free market economy, and investment by multinationals. It also wants to send the first Namibian satellite into space.

    Arguably, election manifestos have no serious impact on voting behaviour. For example, among the older generation, political party loyalties remain influenced to some extent by the liberation struggle history, and regional and ethnic identities.

    In contrast, Namibians who were born after independence make up more than half of the country’s three million people, with an average age of 21 years. Many of the younger electorate live in urban areas, and have become an increasingly decisive factor. For them, the anti-colonial struggle and ethnicity provide little influence. This might be a factor in voting behaviour.

    It seems that Swapo continues to attract the biggest crowds at rallies. However, it remains a matter of speculation if this signals huge electoral support, or is due to the entertainment by popular artists. Entertainment has always played a role in Namibian elections.

    Free T-shirts, food and drinks are also incentives for people attending rallies, many of whom are not yet of voting age. While facing financial constraints, Swapo still has the most funds and donors. Another advantage is that it has a functioning operational structure throughout the country, with a regional and local presence of activists.

    Something new or more of the same?

    Swapo has comparative advantages but there is growing frustration among voters. Its dominance since independence has resulted in a form of democratic authoritarianism or authoritarian democracy. But voter support has still declined.

    Similarly authoritarian leadership in the opposition parties and factional in-fighting provide no hope of alternative policies or political culture. Their political coalitions ended in disarray. This might come to Swapo’s rescue.

    An unlikely but possible scenario would be an elected president coming from outside Swapo, while Swapo dominates the national assembly. The head of state has far-reaching executive powers. But he or she would then have to work with ministers and deputy ministers drawn from a parliament dominated by Swapo.

    Such a constellation would complicate governance. It risks making a non-Swapo president a lame duck. It would be the biggest test for Namibia’s constitutional democracy and rule of law since independence.

    As South Africa’s case shows, a former liberation movement can still have a future despite losing its outright majority.

    Swapo could get beyond the nostalgic liberation struggle mindset and reinvent itself as a modern political party. This could – as happened in South Africa – pave the way to enter coalition politics in the best interest of the people.

    Henning Melber is a member of Swapo since 1974.

    – ref. Namibia’s game-changing 2024 elections: Swapo might face defeat for the first time since independence in 1990 – https://theconversation.com/namibias-game-changing-2024-elections-swapo-might-face-defeat-for-the-first-time-since-independence-in-1990-241723

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Memes, photojournalism and television debates: 3 images that defined the 2024 US election

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kylie Message, Professor of Public Humanities and Director of the ANU Humanities Research Centre, Australian National University

    Visual images often last in historical and popular memory. This is especially the case in presidential campaigns in the United States, which offer a vast mix of spectacle, surprise and drama.

    An historian of political visual culture can no more predict which images are likely to last the test of time than we can know who will win. But we can explain why some historical images from presidential campaigns resonate.

    This election season has produced the most media savvy and diverse campaign imagery of all time. Cable news, social media and artificial intelligence have created a whole new universe of image-based narratives.

    In this rich visual landscape, here are three images likely to last the test of time.

    1. Trump’s ‘fight!’ photo

    The uncontroversial front-runner for defining image has to be Evan Vucci’s photograph of Donald Trump being led off the stage in Pennsylvania after surviving an assassination attempt in July.

    Many people, including Trump, were quick to elevate the photograph to the iconic status of Joe Rosenthal’s photograph of troops raising the flag on Iwo Jima during the second world war.

    Both are photographed from below and feature the national flag above Americans working against adversity to reach a common goal. Both fit squarely into the tradition of wartime photojournalism.

    Both photographs enjoyed instantaneous popularity: Trump’s image went viral and the Iwo Jima image was featured on a US postage stamp before the war’s end.

    But their greatest similarity resides in the cultural symbolism of the images.

    Both accurately represent an historical moment; a specific point in time. But the point in time has been actively selected to fit a narrative. The narratives projected are deeply held mythologised symbols of aspirational patriotism.



    Read more:
    Elevation, colour – and the American flag. Here’s what makes Evan Vucci’s Trump photograph so powerful

    Visual literacy prompts us to think about which images were discounted in the selection of these historically powerful two. Historical legacies and the national mythologies that fuel these lean toward images of success over pictures of wartime death and suffering.

    This image of Trump fits all the criteria we would typically and probably unconsciously apply when assessing if an image is likely to have long-term significance.

    The baseline characteristic of iconic images is a general bipartisan understanding of what an image “says”. Regardless of whether you agree with the message being conveyed, you understand its social context, why the image is provocative, dramatic or funny (or not), as well as its historical references.

    However, contemporary images are not always so straightforward to read – and in a post-truth AI world, it is harder than ever to decipher the visual culture of politics.

    2. Brat summer and coconut memes

    Kamala Harris’s youth and vision for the future headlined her campaign’s creation of “Kamala HQ”. The strategy adopted the bright green branding and font of Charli XCX’s smash album Brat after the pop star posted on X: “kamala IS brat”.

    Social media has been a critical tool in introducing Harris to voters, especially those of voting age for the first time in 2024. The campaign’s use of social media represented young people as engaged and respected decision makers.



    Read more:
    ‘Kamala IS brat’: how the power of pop music has influenced 60 years of US elections

    Voters have had more than a century to become accustomed to photojournalism. In contrast, a lot of social media representation has arisen from community activism over the past few years. Reporting from women’s marches this past weekend showed links to the visual culture of the protests that followed Trump’s 2016 election.

    Arguably, the most historically significant of this “youth vote” image category are the internet memes of coconuts and coconut trees.

    In a 2023 speech, Harris quoted her mother:

    You think you just fell out of a coconut tree? You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.

    This moment went viral during the 2024 election, and it was not long before people started signalling their support for Harris by adding a coconut emoji to their profile or comments.

    The popularity of the coconut meme by Harris supporters indicates a rejection of the derogatory use of the term “coconut” against people of colour “acting white”.

    The production and reception of memes by younger voters demonstrates a media literacy and sophistication that also requires continuous fact-checking.

    This point was made in Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris, which urged her followers to do their own “reliability” checking of information in their feeds after Trump and other conservative figures shared AI-generated images of Swift and her fans allegedly supporting Trump.

    3. The televised debate handshake

    A key image from the debate between Harris and Trump came in the first few minutes, when Harris crossed the stage to offer her hand. It was the first debate handshake in eight years.

    This was a bold action given Trump’s prowling movement on the 2016 debate stage against Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, and his well documented predilection for firm handshakes.

    The handshake is representative of the campaign, which has been called “a referendum on gender”. It evoked the image of strong and confident leadership – a central theme as Harris spoke passionately about reproductive rights and abortion.

    Televised presidential debates are one of the most keenly watched and analysed moments of the presidential election season. Image is everything.

    Their importance is perhaps best indicated by Justin Sullivan’s photograph of President Joe Biden, mouth agape and looking frail beneath the word “presidential” during the June debate this year.

    While they rarely lead to an outcome as extreme as a candidate exiting the race, as ended up happening with Biden, the images and soundbites they generate can resonate for decades.

    During the first ever nationally televised presidential debate in 1960, Republican candidate Richard Nixon was said to be unwell and refused to wear makeup. Compared to his opponent, Democratic nominee John F. Kennedy, he sweated profusely on stage, creating an image that was disastrous to his eventually unsuccessful campaign.

    Between the staged and “gotcha” moments of every presidential campaign, debates provide a unique – and, in 2024, a singular – window into how the candidates relate to each other as humans across an ever-widening ideological divide.

    Kylie Message has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Memes, photojournalism and television debates: 3 images that defined the 2024 US election – https://theconversation.com/memes-photojournalism-and-television-debates-3-images-that-defined-the-2024-us-election-242689

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –