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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Trump accuses people of wrongdoing he himself committed − an explanation of projection

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By April Johnson, Associate Professor of Political Science, Kennesaw State University

    Donald Trump accuses others of acts he has done at an Oct. 3, 2024, rally in Michigan. AP Photo/Carlos Osorio

    Donald Trump has a particular formula he uses to convey messages to his supporters and opponents alike: He highlights others’ wrongdoings even though he has committed similar acts himself.

    On Oct. 3, 2024, Trump accused the Biden administration of spending Federal Emergency Management Agency funds – money meant for disaster relief – on services for immigrants. Biden did no such thing, but Trump did during his time in the White House, including to pay for additional detention space.

    This is not the first time he has accused someone of something he had done or would do in the future. In 2016, Trump criticized opponent Hillary Clinton’s use of an unsecured personal email server while secretary of state as “extreme carelessness with classified material.” But once he was elected, Trump continued to use his unsecured personal cellphone while in office. And he has been criminally charged with illegally keeping classified government documents after he left office and storing them in his bedroom, bathroom and other places at his Mar-a-Lago estate.

    After complaining about how Hillary Clinton handled classified documents, Donald Trump stored national secrets in a bathroom.
    Justice Department via AP

    More recently, the Secret Service arrested a man with a rifle who was allegedly planning to shoot Trump during a round of golf. In the wake of this event, Trump accused Democrats of using “inflammatory language” that stokes the fires of political violence. Meanwhile, Trump himself has a long history of making inflammatory remarks that could potentially incite violence.

    As a scholar of both politics and psychology, I’m familiar with the psychological strategies candidates use to persuade the public to support them and to cast their rivals in a negative light. This strategy Trump has used repeatedly is called “projection.” It’s a tactic people use to lessen their own faults by calling out these faults in others.

    Projection abounds

    There are plenty of examples. During his Sept. 10, 2024, debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump claimed that Democrats were responsible for the July 13 assassination attempt against him. “I probably took a bullet to the head because of the things that they say about me,” he declared.

    Earlier in the debate he had falsely accused immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, of eating other people’s pets – a statement that sparked bomb threats and prompted the city’s mayor to declare a state of emergency.

    Similarly, congressional investigators and federal prosecutors have found that Trump’s remarks called thousands of people to Washington, D.C., on Jan. 6, 2021, encouraging them to violently storm the Capitol in order to stop the counting of electoral votes.

    Trump isn’t the only politician who uses projection. His running mate, JD Vance, claimed “the rejection of the American family is perhaps the most pernicious and the most evil thing the left has done in this country.” Critics quickly pointed out that his own family has a history of dysfunction and drug addiction.

    Projection happens on both sides of the political aisle. In reference to Trump’s proposed 10% tariff on all imported goods, the Harris campaign launched social media efforts to condemn the so-called “Trump tequila tax.” While Harris frames this proposal as a sales tax that would devastate middle-class families, she deflects from the fact that inflation has made middle-class life more expensive since she and President Joe Biden took office.

    How it works

    Projection is one example of unconscious psychological processes called defense mechanisms. Some people find it hard to accept criticism or believe information that they wish were not true. So they seek – and then provide – another explanation for the difference between what’s happening in the world and what’s happening in their minds.

    In general, this is called “motivated reasoning,” which is an umbrella phrase used to describe the array of mental gymnastics people use to reconcile their views with reality.

    Some examples include seeking out information that confirms their beliefs, dismissing factual claims or creating alternate explanations. For example, a smoker might downplay or simply avoid information related to the link between smoking and lung cancer, or perhaps tell themselves that they don’t smoke as much as they actually do.

    Motivated reasoning is not unique to politics. It can be a challenging concept to consider because people tend to think they are fully in control of their decision-making abilities and that they are capable of objectively processing political information. The evidence is clear, however, that there are unconscious thought processes at work, too.

    Influencing the audience

    Audiences are also susceptible to unconscious psychological dynamics. Research has found that over time, people’s minds subconsciously attach emotions to concepts, names or phrases. So someone might have a particular emotional reaction to the words “gun control,” “Ron DeSantis” or “tax relief.”

    And people’s minds also unconsciously create defenses for those seemingly automatic emotions. When a person’s emotions and defenses are questioned, a phenomenon called the “backfire effect” can occur, in which the process of controlling, correcting or counteracting mistaken beliefs ends up reinforcing the person’s beliefs rather than changing them.

    For instance, some people may find it hard to believe that the candidate they prefer – whom they believe to be the best person for the job – truly lost an election. So they seek another explanation and accept explanations that justify their beliefs. Perhaps they choose to believe, even in the absence of evidence, that the race was rigged or that many fraudulent votes were cast. And when evidence to the contrary is offered, they insist their views are correct.

    Vice President Kamala Harris has campaigned with Liz Cheney, right, a prominent Republican who formerly served in Congress.
    AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein

    A way out

    Fortunately, research shows specific ways to reduce people’s reliance on these automatic psychological processes, including reiterating and providing details of objective facts and – importantly – attempting to correct untruths via a trusted source from the same political party.

    For instance, challenges to Democrats’ belief that the Trump-affiliated conservative agenda called Project 2025 is “dangerous” would be more effective coming from a Democrat than from a Republican.

    Similarly, a counter to Trump’s claim that the international community is headed toward World War III with Democrats in the White House would be stronger coming from one of Trump’s fellow Republicans. And certainly, statements that Trump “can never be trusted with power again” carries more weight when it comes from the lips of former Republican Vice President Dick Cheney than from any member of the Democratic Party.

    Critiques from within a candidate’s own party are not out of the question. But they are certainly improbable given the hotly charged climate that is election season 2024.

    April Johnson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Trump accuses people of wrongdoing he himself committed − an explanation of projection – https://theconversation.com/why-trump-accuses-people-of-wrongdoing-he-himself-committed-an-explanation-of-projection-237912

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: LGBTQ rights: Where do Harris and Trump stand?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Marie-Amelie George, Associate Professor of Law, Wake Forest University

    The Republican Party and Democratic Party offer voters starkly different visions of LGBTQ rights in America. Douglas Rissing via Getty Images

    Polls show that LGBTQ rights will likely factor into most Americans’ pick for president this November as they choose between former Republican President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat.

    A March 2024 survey by independent pollster PRRI found that 68% of voters will take LGBTQ rights into consideration at the polls. Fully 30% stated that they would vote only for a candidate who shares their views on the issue.

    It is no coincidence, then, that LGBTQ rights issues feature prominently in the party platforms.

    The Republican Party’s electoral promises include cutting existing federal funding for gender-affirming care and restricting transgender students’ participation in sports. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party platform proposes to outlaw discrimination against LGBTQ people, including passing the Equality Act, which would prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity in housing, health care and public accommodations.

    As a legal scholar who has written extensively on the history of LGBTQ rights, I have seen that the clearest indication of how a politician will act once in office is not what they promise on the campaign trail. Instead, it’s what they have done in the past.

    Let’s examine their records.

    Trump restricted some LGBTQ rights

    Trump and his running mate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, are both relatively new to politics, so their records on LGBTQ rights issues are slim.

    Trump enacted two policies restricting LGBTQ rights early in his one term in office. The first was his 2017 executive order Promoting Free Speech and Religious Liberty, which reinforced that federal law must respect conscience-based objections to comply with the First Amendment. This order indirectly imperiled LGBTQ rights because many LGBTQ rights battles are fought over whether conservative Christian businesses run afoul of anti-discrimination laws when they refuse to serve same-sex couples.

    A few months later, Trump banned transgender individuals from serving in the U.S. armed forces. He ultimately revoked the directive, implementing instead a new policy that allowed existing transgender soldiers to remain in the military but barred new transgender recruits from enlisting.

    Vance has opposed trans rights

    Vance, a one-term senator, has accrued a record of trying to roll back the rights of transgender Americans during his short time in public office.

    Between 2023 and 2024, Vance introduced or sponsored five bills opposing trans rights. One seeks to restrict gender-affirming care for minors by imposing criminal sanctions on doctors who perform such surgeries; another aims to do the same by exposing physicians to civil liability for either prescribing gender affirming hormones or performing surgeries.

    JD Vance has made rolling back the rights of transgender Americans a centerpiece of his short congressional career.
    Christian Monterrosa/AFP via Getty Images

    Another Vance bill would expand health care workers’ ability to make conscience-based objections to transgender rights. One more would amend Title IX, which prohibits discrimination based on sex in education, to limit transgender student participation in athletics.

    Vance has also tried to pass legislation that would stop the Department of State from issuing passports with an unspecified “X” gender designation, a policy that launched in 2021. Gender-neutral passports allow transgender, intersex and nonbinary individuals to carry identity documents that reflect their gender identity and avoid what can be significant problems getting through airport security with misgendered IDs.

    Congress has not voted on any of these proposals.

    A ‘legislative priority’ for Harris

    Harris and her vice presidential pick, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, have both made LGBTQ rights a legislative priority throughout their long political careers.

    Harris initially took public office in 2003 as San Francisco’s district attorney. In that role, she established a hate crimes unit that prosecuted violence against LGBTQ youth in schools. She also trained prosecutors nationwide to counter the “gay panic” and “trans panic” defenses in court, which is when lawyers attempt to justify violence as a fear-based reaction to the victim’s sexual orientation or gender identity.

    Harris was elected California’s attorney general in 2011 and declined to defend the state’s ban on same-sex marriage when opponents challenged the law’s constitutionality before the U.S. Supreme Court. She also joined amicus briefs supporting transgender bathroom access after North Carolina barred transgender people from using bathrooms that did not match the gender on their ID.

    Harris, however, did not unequivocally champion LGBTQ rights. In 2015, she opposed two prisoners’ request for urgent gender-confirmation surgery. She has since called for a “better understanding” of transgender health needs.

    As a U.S. senator from 2017 to 2021, Harris sponsored bills proposing to better address distinct LGBTQ issues in health care and the criminal justice system. She also sponsored five Senate bills to prohibit discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity in employment, housing and public accommodations. Other bills she sponsored focused on LGBTQ youth, aiming to prohibit discrimination in child welfare programs and barring federal funds from supporting so-called conversion therapy of LGBTQ teens.

    The Senate did not vote on any of these bills.

    As vice president, Harris has been part of what advocates describe as the most pro-LGBTQ administration in U.S. history.

    Since 2021, President Joe Biden has issued multiple executive orders to combat discrimination against the LGBTQ community, including by eliminating the Trump-era restrictions on transgender military service. Biden also signed into law the Respect for Marriage Act, which changed the federal definition of marriage from “a man and a woman” to “two individuals.” The statute ensures that the federal government would continue to recognize same-sex unions if the Supreme Court ever reversed its decision to legalize marriage equality.

    Walz: Ally in the statehouse

    Harris’ vice-presidential pick has a similarly extensive record backing LGBTQ rights.

    As a U.S. representative from 2007 to 2019, Walz supported efforts to grant federal benefits to same-sex couples before marriage equality became federal law. He also co-sponsored many of the House versions of the same bills as Harris.

    As Minnesota’s governor, Walz has issued several executive orders promoting LGBTQ inclusion and equity and banned conversion therapy for minors. He also declared Minnesota as a “trans refuge state” that will not enforce laws interfering with children’s access to gender-affirming care.

    Walz signs a law in 2023 that declares Minnesota to be a refuge for people traveling for gender-affirming medical care.
    Glen Stubbe/Star Tribune via Getty Images)

    Starkly different records

    If elected, Trump has promised to cut federal funds for public schools that “push … gender ideology” and “keep men out of women’s sports.” Harris pledges to “defend the freedom to love who you love openly and with pride.”

    As citizens head to the polls in November, they can be confident that, on this topic at least, the candidates mean what they say.

    Marie-Amelie George does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. LGBTQ rights: Where do Harris and Trump stand? – https://theconversation.com/lgbtq-rights-where-do-harris-and-trump-stand-237298

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Caitlin Clark, Christine Brennan and how racial stereotypes persist in the media’s WNBA coverage

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Molly Yanity, Professor and Director of Sports media and Communication, University of Rhode Island

    Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark, right, scrambles for a loose ball against Connecticut Sun guard DiJonai Carrington during a game on Aug. 28, 2024. Brian Spurlock/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

    The “Caitlin Clark effect,” or the impact on women’s basketball from a ponytailed rookie phenomenon from America’s heartland, is real: The 2024 WNBA season shattered viewership, attendance and merchandise sales records.

    Clark, however, didn’t get a chance to compete for a league title.

    The Connecticut Sun eliminated Clark’s team, the Indiana Fever, in the first round of the playoffs with a two-game sweep, ending her record rookie-of-the-year campaign.

    And it may be just the latest chapter in a complicated saga steeped in race.

    During the first game of the series, the fingers of Sun guard DiJonai Carrington hit Clark in the eye as Carrington followed through on a block attempt of a Clark shot.

    During the next day’s media availability, USA Today columnist Christine Brennan recorded and posted an exchange between herself and Carrington.

    In the brief clip, the veteran sports writer asks Carrington, who is Black, if she purposely hit Clark in the eye during the previous night’s game. Though Carrington insisted she didn’t intentionally hit Clark, Brennan persisted, asking the guard if she and a teammate had laughed about the incident. The questions sparked social media outrage, statements from the players union and the league, media personalities weighing in and more.

    Hit the pause button here.

    As a longtime sports writer who has covered the WNBA – and as a journalism scholar who studies women’s sports and fandom – I’ll concede that Brennan’s line of questioning seems, on its face, like business as usual in sports journalism.

    After all, haven’t most baseball fans seen a scribe ask a pitcher if he intentionally beaned a batter?

    But Brennan’s questions were not asked in a vacuum. The emergence of a young, white superstar from the heartland has caused many new WNBA fans to pick sides that fall along racial lines. Brennan’s critics claim she was pushing a line of questioning that has dogged Black athletes for decades: that they are aggressive and undisciplined.

    Because of that, her defense of her questions – and her unwillingness to acknowledge the complexities – has left this professor disappointed in one of her journalistic heroes.

    Brennan and much of the mainstream sports media, particularly those who cover professional women’s basketball, still seem to have a racial blind spot.

    The emergence of a Black, queer league

    When the WNBA launched in 1997 in the wake of the success of the 1996 Olympic gold-medal-winning U.S. women’s basketball team, it did so under the watch of the NBA.

    The NBA set out to market its new product, in part, to a white, heterosexual fan base.

    The plan didn’t take hold.

    While the league experienced fits and starts in attendance and TV ratings over its lifetime, the demographic makeup of its players is undeniable: The WNBA is, by and large, a Black, queer league.

    In 2020, the Women’s National Basketball Players Association reported that 83% of its members were people of color, with 67% self-reporting as “Black/African-American.” While gender and sexual identity hasn’t been officially reported, a “substantial proportion,” the WNBPA reported, identify as LBGTQ+.

    In 2020, the league’s diversity was celebrated as players competed in a “bubble” in Bradenton, Florida, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They protested racial injustice, helped unseat a U.S. senator who also owned Atlanta’s WNBA franchise, and urged voters to oust former President Donald Trump from the White House.

    Racial tensions bubble to the surface

    In the middle of it all, the WNBA has more eyeballs on it than ever before. And, without mincing words, the fan base has “gotten whiter” since Clark’s debut this past summer, as The Wall Street Journal pointed out in July. Those white viewers of college women’s basketball have emphatically turned their attention to the pro game, in large part due to Clark’s popularity at the University of Iowa.

    Money is also pouring into the league through a lucrative media rights deal and new sponsorship partners.

    While the rising tide following Clark’s transition to the WNBA is certainly lifting all boats, it is also bringing detritus to the surface in the form of racist jeers from the stands and on social media.

    After the Sun dispatched the Fever, All-WNBA forward Alyssa Thomas, who seldom speaks beyond soundbites, said in a postgame news conference: “I think in my 11-year career I’ve never experienced the racial comments from the Indiana Fever fan base. … I’ve never been called the things that I’ve been called on social media, and there’s no place for it.”

    Echoes of Bird and Magic

    In “Manufacturing Consent,” a seminal work about the U.S. news business, Edward Herman and Noam Chomsky argued that media in capitalist environments do not exist to impartially report the news, but to reinforce dominant narratives of the time, even if they are false. Most journalists, they theorized, work to support the status quo.

    In sports, you sometimes see that come to light through what media scholars call “the stereotypical narrative” – a style of reporting and writing that relies on old tropes.

    Scholars who study sports media have found that reporters routinely fall back on racial stereotypes. For example, coverage of Black quarterbacks in the NFL as less intelligent and more innately gifted would go on to hinder the progress of Black quarterbacks.

    Magic Johnson defends a shot by Larry Bird during the 1985 NBA Finals.
    Bob Riha, Jr./Getty Images

    In Brennan’s coverage of the Carrington-Clark incident, there appear to be echoes of the way the media covered Los Angeles Lakers point guard Magic Johnson and Boston Celtics forward Larry Bird in the 1980s.

    The battles between two of the sport’s greatest players – one Black, the other white – was a windfall for the NBA, lifting the league into financial sustainability.

    But to many reporters who leaned on the dominant narrative of the time, the two stars also served as stand-ins for the racial tensions of the post-civil rights era. During the 1980s, Bird and Magic didn’t simply hoop; they were the “embodiments of their races and living symbols of how blacks and whites lived in America,” as scholars Patrick Ferrucci and Earnest Perry wrote.

    The media gatekeepers of the Magic-Bird era often relied on racial stereotypes that ultimately distorted both athletes.

    For example, early in their careers, Bird and Johnson received different journalistic treatment. In Ferrucci and Perry’s article, they explain how coverage of Bird “fit the dominant narrative of the time perfectly … exhibiting a hardworking and intelligent game that succeeded despite a lack of athletic prowess.” When the “flashy” Lakers and Johnson won, they wrote, it was because of “superior skill.”

    When they lost to Bird’s Celtics, they were “outworked.”

    Framing matters

    Let’s go back to Brennan.

    Few have done more for young women in the sports media industry than Brennan. In time, energy and money, she has mentored and supported young women trying to break into the field. She has used her platform to expand the coverage of women’s sports.

    Brennan defended herself in a lengthy interview on the podcast “Good Game with Sarah Spain”:

    “I think [critics are] missing the fact of what I’m trying to do, what I am doing, what I understand clearly as a journalist, asking questions and putting things out there so that athletes can then have an opportunity to answer issues that are being discussed or out there.”

    I don’t think Brennan asking Carrington about the foul was problematic. Persisting with the narrative was.

    Leaning into racial stereotypes is not simply about the language used anymore. Brennan’s video of her persistent line of questioning pitted Carrington against Clark. It could be argued that it used the stereotype of the overly physical, aggressive Black athlete, as well.

    At best, Brennan has a blind spot to the strain racism is putting on Black athletes today – particularly in the WNBA. At worst, she is digging in on that tired trope.

    A blind spot can be addressed and seen. An unacknowledged racist narrative, however, will persist.

    Molly Yanity does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Caitlin Clark, Christine Brennan and how racial stereotypes persist in the media’s WNBA coverage – https://theconversation.com/caitlin-clark-christine-brennan-and-how-racial-stereotypes-persist-in-the-medias-wnba-coverage-240272

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: AI was central to two of 2024’s Nobel prize categories. It’s a sign of things to come

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nello Cristianini, Professor of Artificial Intelligence, University of Bath

    The 2024 Nobel Prizes in physics and chemistry have given us a glimpse of the future of science. Artificial intelligence (AI) was central to the discoveries honoured by both awards. You have to wonder what Alfred Nobel, who founded the prizes, would think of it all.

    We are certain to see many more Nobel medals handed to researchers who made use of AI tools. As this happens, we may find the scientific methods honoured by the Nobel committee depart from straightforward categories like “physics”, “chemistry” and “physiology or medicine”.

    We may also see the scientific backgrounds of recipients retain a looser connection with these categories. This year’s physics prize was awarded to the American John Hopfield, at Princeton University, and British-born Geoffrey Hinton, from the University of Toronto. While Hopfield is a physicist, Hinton studied experimental psychology before gravitating to AI.

    The chemistry prize was shared between biochemist David Baker, from the University of Washington, and the computer scientists Demis Hassabis and John Jumper, who are both at Google DeepMind in the UK.

    There is a close connection between the AI-based advances honoured in the physics and chemistry categories. Hinton helped develop an approach used by DeepMind to make its breakthrough in predicting the shapes of proteins.

    The physics laureates, Hinton in particular, laid the foundations of the powerful field known as machine learning. This is a subset of AI that’s concerned with algorithms, sets of rules for performing specific computational tasks.

    Hopfield’s work is not particularly in use today, but the backpropagation algorithm (co-invented by Hinton) has had a tremendous impact on many different sciences and technologies. This is concerned with neural networks, a model of computing that mimics the human brain’s structure and function to process data. Backpropagation allows scientists to “train” enormous neural networks. While the Nobel committee did its best to connect this influential algorithm to physics, it’s fair to say that the link is not a direct one.

    Proteins can now be quickly designed to counter viruses.
    Radoxist Studio / Shutterstock

    Training a machine-learning system involves exposing it to vast amounts of data, often from the internet. Hinton’s advance ultimately enabled the training of systems such as GPT (the technology behind ChatGPT), and the AI algorithms AlphaGo and AlphaFold, developed by Google DeepMind. So, backpropagation’s impact has been enormous.

    DeepMind’s AlphaFold 2 solved a 50-year-old problem: predicting the complex structures of proteins from their molecular building blocks, amino acids.

    Every two years, since 1994, scientists have been holding a contest to find the best ways to predict protein structures and shapes from the sequences of their amino acids. The competition is called Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP).

    For the past few contests, CASP winners have used some version of DeepMind’s AlphaFold. There is, therefore, a direct line to be drawn from Hinton’s backpropagation to Google DeepMind’s AlphaFold 2 breakthrough.

    David Baker used a computer program called Rosetta to achieve the difficult feat of building new kinds of proteins. Both Baker’s and DeepMind’s approaches hold enormous potential for future applications.

    Attributing credit has always been controversial aspect of the Nobel prizes. A maximum of three researchers can share a Nobel. But big advances in science are collaborative. Scientific papers may have 10, 20, 30 authors or more. More than one team might contribute to the discoveries honoured by the Nobel committee.

    This year we may have further discussions about the attribution of the research on backpropagation algorithm, which has been claimed by various researchers, as well as for the general attribution of a discovery to a field like physics.

    We now have a new dimension to the attribution problem. It’s increasingly unclear whether we will always be able to distinguish between the contributions of human scientists and those of their artificial collaborators – the AI tools that are already helping push forward the boundaries of our knowledge.

    In the future, could we see machines take the place of scientists, with humans being consigned to a supporting role? If so, perhaps the AI tool will get the main Nobel prize with humans needing their own category.

    Nello Cristianini is affiliated with the University of Bath, and the author of two books that cover the topics of this article, The Shortcut (CRC Press, 2023) and Machina Sapiens (Mulino, 2024).

    – ref. AI was central to two of 2024’s Nobel prize categories. It’s a sign of things to come – https://theconversation.com/ai-was-central-to-two-of-2024s-nobel-prize-categories-its-a-sign-of-things-to-come-240954

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Dark energy: could the mysterious force we think of as constant actually vary over cosmic time?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Robert Nichol, Pro Vice-Chancellor and Executive Dean, University of Surrey

    Globular cluster NGC 2005. ESA/Hubble & Nasa, F. Niederhofer, L. Girardi, CC BY-SA

    As I finished my PhD in 1992, the universe was full of mystery – we didn’t even know exactly what it is made of. One could argue that cosmologists had made little progress in our understanding of these basic facts since the discovery of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), the afterglow of the Big Bang, in the 1960s.

    I left the UK after my doctoral studies to begin a research career in the US, where I was lucky to be recruited to work on a new experiment called the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). This new survey embraced advances in digital technologies with the ambition of measuring the “redshifts” (how light becomes more red if a source appears to move away from you) of a million galaxies.

    These redshifts were then used to measure distances, and allowed cosmologists to map the three-dimensional structure of the universe.

    One cosmic puzzle in the 1980s, based on the pioneering CfA Redshift Survey of Margaret Geller and John Huchra, was the significant lumpiness of galaxies, and therefore matter, in our cosmic neighbourhood. Galaxies were clustered together across a wide range of scales, with evidence for coherent “superclusters” of galaxies spanning over 30 million light years in length.

    This article is part of our series Cosmology in crisis? which uncovers the greatest problems facing cosmologists today – and discusses the implications of solving them.

    It was important to know how such superclusters could have formed from the smooth CMB, as it would tell us the total amount of matter in the universe and, more intriguingly, what that matter was made of. That was assuming the only force in play was gravity.

    By the end of the first phase of the SDSS, we had achieved our goal of a million redshifts. This data was used to discover many superclusters across the universe, including the amazing “Sloan Great Wall”, which remains one of the largest known coherent structures in the universe, over a billion light years in length.

    Type 1A supernova remnant.
    Nasa/CXC/U.Texas

    I am lucky to have lived through this amazing era of cosmic discovery around the turn of the century. Surveys like SDSS, combined with new observations of the CMB and searches for distant exploding stars known as Type Ia Supernovae (SNeIa), coincided to deliver an emphatic answer to the question: “What is the universe made of?”

    The discovery of dark energy

    From 1999 to 2004, the cosmological community came together to agree that the universe was 5% normal (baryonic) matter, 25% dark matter (unknown, invisible matter), and 70% “dark energy” (an expansive force) – essentially a cosmological constant, which was first postulated by Einstein. The discovery that the universe was dominated by this constant energy shocked everyone, especially as Einstein had called the cosmological constant his “biggest blunder”.

    Today, cosmologists still agree this is the most likely make-up of our universe. But observational cosmologists like me have refined our measurements of these cosmic variables significantly – reducing the errors on these quantities.

    The latest numbers from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) indicate that 31.5% of the universe is matter (a combination of dark and normal), with the remainder being dark energy assuming a cosmological constant. The error on this measurement is just 3%.

    Knowing these numbers to higher precision will hopefully help cosmologists understand why the universe is like this. Why would we expect to have 70% of the universe today as “dark” (can’t be seen via electromagnetic radiation) and not associated with “matter” like everything else in the universe?

    The origin of this dark energy remains the biggest challenge to physics, even after 20 years of intense study.

    Intriguing measurements

    Like me, a few cosmologists have become distracted by other problems over the last two decades. However, 2024 could be the start of a new era of discovery. This year, cosmologists published new results based on two of our best cosmological probes.

    The first probe consists of exploding stars dubbed “SNeIa”. As these stars have a narrow range of masses, their explosions can be well calibrated, giving cosmologists a predictable brightness that can be seen far away. By comparing the known brightness of these SNeIa to their redshifts, we can determine the expansion history of the universe. These objects were, in fact, critical for discovering that the expansion of our universe is accelerating.

    The second probe works by looking at Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) – relics of predictable sound waves in the plasma (charged gas) of the early universe, before the CMB. These are now frozen into the large-scale structure of galaxies around us. Like SNeIa, their predictable size can be compared with their observed size today to measure the expansion history of the universe.

    Recently, DES reported its final SNeIa results from over a decade of work, detecting and characterising many thousands of supernova events. While these SNeIa results are consistent with the orthodox view that the universe is dominated by a cosmological constant, they do leave open the tantalising possibility of new physics – namely, that the dark energy could be varying with cosmic time.

    That said, scientists are trained to be sceptical, and there are many reasons to distrust a single experiment, single observation, or even a single set of cosmologists!

    Cosmologists now go to extraordinary lengths to “blind” their results from themselves during analysis of the data, only revealing the answer at the last moment. This blinding is done to avoid unconscious human biases affecting the work, which could possibly encourage people to get the answer they believe they should see.

    This is why repeatability of results is at the heart of all science. In cosmology, we cherish the need for multiple experiments checking and challenging each other.

    The second result to turn heads was the first BAO measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), successor to the SDSS. The first DESI map of the cosmos is deeper and denser than the original SDSS. Its first BAO results are intriguing – the data alone is still consistent with a cosmological constant, but with hints of a possible time-varying dark energy when combined with other data sources.

    DESI in the dome of the Nicholas U. Mayall 4-meter Telescope at the Kitt Peak National Observatory.
    wikipedia, CC BY-SA

    In particular, when DESI analyses the combination of its BAO results with the final DES SNeIa data, the significance of a time-varying dark energy increases to 3.9 sigma (a measure of how unusual a set of data is if a hypothesis is true) – only 0.6% chance of being a statistical fluke.

    Most of us would take such odds, but scientists have been hurt before by systematic errors within their data that can mimic such statistical certainty. Particle physicists therefore demand a discovery standard of 5 sigma for any claims of new physics – or less than a one in a million chance of being wrong!

    As scientists will say: “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”

    Mindboggling implications

    Are we entering a new era of cosmological discovery? If so, what would it mean?

    The answer to my first question is probably yes. The next few years will be fun for cosmologists, with new data and results due from the European Space Agency’s Euclid mission. Launched last year, it is already scanning the sky with unprecedented accuracy.

    Likewise, DESI will get more and better data, while the European Southern Observatory starts its own massive redshift survey in 2025. Then you have the Rubin Observatory in Chile coming online soon. Combining these datasets should prove beyond doubt if dark energy varies with cosmic time.

    If it does, it implies there is less dark energy now than in the past. This could be caused by many things but, interestingly, it could signify the end of a present, accelerated phase of the expansion of the universe.

    It also implies that dark energy is probably not a cosmological constant thought to be due to the background energy associated with empty space. According to quantum mechanics, empty space isn’t really empty, with particles popping in and out of existence creating something we call “vacuum energy”. Ironically, predictions of this vacuum energy do not agree with our cosmological observations by many orders of magnitude.

    So, if we did discover that dark energy varies over time, it might explain why observations are at odds with quantum mechanics, which is an extremely well-tested theory. This would suggest the assumption in the standard model of cosmology, that dark energy is constant, needs a rethink. Such a realisation may help solve other mysteries about the universe – or pose new ones.

    In short, the new cosmological observations coming this decade will stimulate a new era of physical thinking. Congratulations to my younger cosmologists: it is your era to have fun.



    Read more:
    The earliest galaxies formed amazingly fast after the Big Bang. Do they break the universe or change its age?



    Read more:
    Astronomers can’t agree on how fast the universe is expanding. New approaches are aiming to break the impasse



    Read more:
    The universe is smoother than the standard model of cosmology suggests – so is the theory broken?



    Read more:
    Cosmology is at a tipping point – we may be on the verge of discovering new physics

    Robert Nichol receives funding from STFC for work on 4MOST.

    – ref. Dark energy: could the mysterious force we think of as constant actually vary over cosmic time? – https://theconversation.com/dark-energy-could-the-mysterious-force-we-think-of-as-constant-actually-vary-over-cosmic-time-238247

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The vote in Pennsylvania could decide the US election – it’s a battle for the suburbs

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Thomas Gift, Associate Professor and Director of the Centre on US Politics, UCL

    Pennsylvania has many slogans and nicknames. “The Keystone State.” “State of Independence.” “Home of beer, chocolate, and liberty and Taylor Swift.” And now: “centre of the political universe”.

    According to recent analysis by political statistician Nate Silver, how Pennsylvania swings on November 5 is likely to determine the next leader of the free world. If Kamala Harris wins the state, her odds of taking the White House reach 91%. If Trump wins, his odds skyrocket to 96%.

    That’s how much Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes matter (270 are needed to win the Electoral College), and how much the state is a bellwether nationally for how each candidate is performing with “must-win” voters.

    Nearly every statewide poll conducted in Pennsylvania (PA) in the last month shows a statistical tie in the presidential contest. FiveThirtyEight forecasts in its simulations that Harris would win the state 54 times out of 100 elections and Trump 46 times, meaning the state is a virtual toss-up.

    In 2016, Trump pulled off a narrow upset in PA, defeating Democrat Hillary Clinton 48.2 to 47.5%. The victory cracked the crucial “Blue Wall,” alongside Michigan and Wisconsin, which paved Trump’s path to the White House. In 2020, President Joe Biden, thanks partly to touting his family’s roots in the working-class city of Scranton, beat Trump in Pennsylvania 50 to 48.8%. In the last 10 elections, Pennsylvania has selected the eventual occupant of the Oval Office eight times.

    The world is watching as the US election campaign unfolds. Sign up to join us at a special Conversation event on October 17. Expert panellists will discuss with the audience the upcoming election and its possible fallout.

    Beyond the race for the White House, arguably there’s nowhere else with a more high-stakes race. Most notably, incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey has been exchanging barbs with Republican challenger Dave McCormick in an election that could tip the balance of the US Congress.

    Bellwether state

    Democratic political strategist James Carville once quipped that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with Alabama in between. Today, one could say it’s the Land of Walmart, Tractor Supply Co. and Fox News v the Land of Starbucks, Lululemon stores and MSNBC.

    Zooming out, an electoral map of the state looks a lot like that of the country: vast swaths of Republican red in the rural, central parts of the state, and dashes of Democratic deep blue in the east and the west denoting its population centres.

    Pennsylvania reflects the political realignment of both the Democratic and Republican parties in the last decade plus. Predominantly white, blue-collar Americans have gravitated to the Republican party. Meanwhile affluent urbanites have remade the Democratic party, formerly a base for the working class, into the party of the college educated and those who are less likely to be religious. But the Democrats still pick up 49% of the non-college educated and their share of the suburban vote has been rising.

    Neither presidential candidate, however, is writing off key constituencies in PA. The Harris team has opened up 50 headquarters across Pennsylvania in an effort to make inroads in conservative, rural communities. Meanwhile, Trump has made a major play for Black voters and had looked like he was on track to win the highest support from Black voters of any Republican presidential candidate in history.

    Particularly up for grabs are moderate suburbanites, such as those on Philadelphia’s “Main Line” (an area of well-off suburbs) and in upscale outskirts of the state capital of Harrisburg, who tend to be more liberal on social issues and conservative on economic issues.

    Democrats have a slight edge in overall registration numbers in PA, at 44% compared to Republicans at 40% (12% of Pennsylvanians identify as independents). However, the registration advantage for Democrats is the thinnest it’s been in decades.

    Big spending and big issues

    As 2024’s biggest electoral prize, no state has been bombarded with more cash and attention than PA. Harris and Trump have criss-crossed the state for months at locations such as the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex (a huge agricultural showground) and at union rallies.

    Harris and her allies have spent US$21.2 million (£16.9 million) on political ads in Pennsylvania (that’s three times what they’ve spent in Georgia, twice what they’ve spent in Michigan and 18 times what they’ve spent in North Carolina). To match, Trump and his allies have doled out $20.9 million in PA (twice what they’ve spent in Georgia, three times than they’ve spent in Michigan and eight times what they’ve spent in North Carolina).

    Dollars have funnelled into negative ads galore on the many issues that Americans more broadly face, including inflation and the cost of living crisis, crime, abortion and immigration. The war in Ukraine has featured as an especially central issue for Pennsylvania’s large Polish community in an attempt by the Democrats to harness historic fears about Russia.

    No topic, however, has sparked more controversy than fracking, the process of extracting oil and gas from underground rock. PA has become a national leader in fracking, triggering outrage among environmentalists, even as advocates tout the industry as an enormous wealth and job creator for the state.

    Harris, who declared as a Democratic presidential primary candidate in 2019 that: “There’s no question I’m in favor of banning fracking,” now says “let me be absolutely clear, as I’ve been when I said it back in 2020, I will not ban fracking”. Trump has unequivocally championed fracking as part of his “drill, baby, drill” message on lowering prices and creating domestic energy independence.

    What’s in store

    If Pennsylvania’s presidential race is anywhere near as tight as the polls suggest, a winner might not be announced in Pennsylvania, or the country, on election night. With the counting of absentee and overseas ballots (and the possibility of a recount), the process could drag on for days, if not weeks.

    That’s one reason why both sides are already “lawyered-up” in anticipation of litigious combat. In 2020, the US Supreme Court declined to intervene in a case in Pennsylvania that tested rules surrounding the timing of when mail-in votes could still be counted. However, other aspects of electoral protocols or the integrity of ballots could again be challenged.

    Already in 2024, Pennsylvania has been politically consequential. The first assassination attempt of Trump occurred in the tiny town of Butler, PA. Harris’s decision to snub popular state governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate also raised concerns, and could lead to considerable second-guessing if she loses PA and the presidency. Pennsylvania also hosted the one (and likely only) debate between Harris and Trump.

    Whether Harris or Trump ends up as president will depend on whether their political stars align. Either way, those stars revolve around Pennsylvania, the centre of the political universe.

    Thomas Gift does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The vote in Pennsylvania could decide the US election – it’s a battle for the suburbs – https://theconversation.com/the-vote-in-pennsylvania-could-decide-the-us-election-its-a-battle-for-the-suburbs-240587

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Slow-moving sloths will struggle to adapt quickly to climate change – new study

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Heather Ewart, Postdoctoral Researcher, Evolutionary Biology, University of Manchester

    Conservation biologist Rebecca Cliffe fits an accelerometer backpack to a wild three-fingered sloth to measure its movement. The Sloth Conservation Foundation, CC BY-NC-ND

    Sloths are more vulnerable to the rising temperatures associated with climate change than other mammals, due to their unique physiology.

    In a new study, my colleagues and I found that sloths’ ability to adapt to warming temperatures varies between the cooler, high-altitude and warmer, low-altitude forests of Costa Rica.

    Unlike most mammals, sloths do not actively regulate their body temperature. Like reptiles, they rely heavily on ambient temperature to do so. This affects all aspects of their survival, including digestion, metabolism and movement. Combined with their extremely low-calorie, relatively inflexible leaf-based diet, these traits mean sloths have much less energy at their disposal than most other mammals.

    As sloth body temperatures become hotter with rising temperatures, their metabolic rate increases. But those with sharply increasing metabolic rates are at risk of lower survival rates when temperatures rise, compared with other sloths.

    The author, Heather Ewart, returns a wild three-fingered sloth back to its point of capture following the application of a GPS tracking collar and accelerometer.
    Heather Ewart, CC BY-NC-ND

    Together with colleagues, including the founder of UK-based Sloth Conservation Foundation Rebecca Cliffe, I found that their degree of vulnerability depends on the altitude of the forests where each sloth originates from.

    We calculated the metabolic rates of high- and low-altitude sloths across a range of temperatures using a method called respirometery. This involves putting a sloth in a large, closed box (comfortably) to measure how much oxygen it consumes at each temperature within an allotted time period.

    Lowland sloths were able to slow their metabolic rate when temperatures became too hot. This is an important survival mechanism that may benefit these populations as climate change continues.

    Highland sloths were unable to slow their metabolic rate, which increased with temperature and became critical above 32°C. Highland sloths are at another disadvantage – cooler, high-altitude forests tend to be smaller due to the slower growth rate of trees at higher elevations coupled with habitat loss. Highland sloths are therefore much less able to migrate and are more restricted than lowland sloths.

    Sloths can’t adapt their metabolism quickly so are at risk from rising temperatures.
    Rebecca Cliffe, CC BY-NC-ND

    Sloths with higher metabolic rates use more energy, so they need to eat more food to produce more energy. However, due to their extremely slow rates of food intake and digestion, sloths take much longer to process food into energy than other mammals. Essentially, sloths cannot simply eat more food to match their energy requirements or achieve “energy balance” – the state where calories consumed equals calories burnt through physical activity.

    Combined with inflexible migration options, the restricted metabolism of highland sloths makes them especially vulnerable to climate change. However, while lowland sloths appear to have more flexible metabolic responses to warming temperatures, they won’t be able to escape the effects of climate change if temperature increases are too extreme, putting their survival at risk as well.

    There is a considerable lack of data on the current status and abundance of sloths. No comprehensive, long-term population monitoring has been conducted at a scale that reflects the true challenges sloths face.

    Conserving cooler microclimates

    My team of ecologists, who have been studying sloth behaviour and abundance across Costa Rica for 15 years, are concerned about how sloths are being affected by climate change. Areas once highly populated are now devoid of sloths, driven primarily by habitat loss and fragmentation resulting from extensive destruction of rainforests.

    Costa Rica has transformed into a predominantly urban society over the past 40 years, with its urban footprint increasing by 112%. In the Talamanca province, where our team currently tracks wild sloths, urban sprawl has increased substantially with an estimated 3,000 sloths lost annually. Electrocution is one of the leading causes of admissions to wild animal sanctuaries in Costa Rica, partly because sloths use power lines to cross between fragmented forests in certain places.

    A two-fingered sloth uses power lines over a busy road to move between trees.
    Heather Ewart, CC BY-NC-ND

    Both native sloth species of Costa Rica are now listed as conservation concerns. Globally, an estimated 40% of all sloth species are threatened with extinction. Climate change poses a serious threat – and sloth conservation efforts need to take this into account. We predict that rising temperatures will have devastating consequences for sloths’ ability to maintain their energy balance and survive.

    Sloth conservation is crucial, as they play a vital role in keeping the rainforest ecosystem healthy. Sloths are herbivores (plant eaters) that help regulate plant growth and recycle nutrients. They are an integral part of the food web, hosting a diverse ecosystem of unique organisms in their fur and serving as prey for other animals, such as ocelots and jaguars.

    Protecting sloths is an incredibly complex challenge. Right now, natural habitats must be preserved and restored to support cooler microclimates. Particularly in vulnerable high-altitude regions, remaining forest fragments should be reconnected by building wildlife corridors – strips of natural habitat that connect fragmented areas and allow animals to move more easily.

    Sloth conservation is challenging.
    Katarzyna Przygodzka/Shutterstock

    Sloth conservation can only be achieved by addressing the root issue: climate change. A global, coordinated effort is required, with strict adherence to international climate accords such as the Paris agreement to limit global warming to below 1.5°C and prevent irreversible damage to rainforests.

    If climate change continues unchecked, sloths won’t be able to migrate like other species. Once their environment becomes too hot, their survival is unlikely. Sloth conservation is directly linked to the actions humanity now takes to preserve our planet.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 35,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Heather Ewart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Slow-moving sloths will struggle to adapt quickly to climate change – new study – https://theconversation.com/slow-moving-sloths-will-struggle-to-adapt-quickly-to-climate-change-new-study-240052

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: AI affects everyone – including Indigenous people. It’s time we have a say in how it’s built

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tamika Worrell, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Critical Indigenous Studies, Macquarie University

    Since artificial intelligence (AI) became mainstream over the past two years, many of the risks it poses have been widely documented. As well as fuelling deep fake porn, threatening personal privacy and accelerating the climate crisis, some people believe the emerging technology could even lead to human extinction.

    But some risks of AI are still poorly understood. These include the very particular risks to Indigenous knowledges and communities.

    There’s a simple reason for this: the AI industry and governments have largely ignored Indigenous people in the development and regulation of AI technologies. Put differently, the world of AI is too white.

    AI developers and governments need to urgently fix this if they are serious about ensuring everybody shares the benefits of AI. As Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people like to say, “nothing about us, without us”.

    Indigenous concerns

    Indigenous peoples around the world are not ignoring AI. They are having conversations, conducting research and sharing their concerns about the current trajectory of it and related technologies.

    A well-documented problem is the theft of cultural intellectual property. For example, users of AI image generation programs such as DeepAI can artificially generate artworks in mere seconds which mimic Indigenous styles and stories of art.

    This demonstrates how easy it is for someone using AI to misappropriate cultural knowledges. These generations are taken from large data sets of publicly available imagery to create something new. But they miss the storying and cultural knowledge present in our art practices.

    AI technologies also fuel the spread of misinformation about Indigenous people.

    The internet is already riddled with misinformation about Indigenous people. The long-running Creative Spirits website, which is maintained by a non-Indigenous person, is a prominent example.

    Generative AI systems are likely to make this problem worse. They often conflate us with other global Indigenous peoples around the world. They also draw on inappropriate sources, including Creative Spirits.

    During last year’s Voice to Parliament referendum in Australia, “no” campaigners also used AI-generated images depicting Indigenous people. This demonstrates the role of AI in political contexts and the harm it can cause to us.

    Another problem is the lack of understanding of AI among Indigenous people. Some 40% of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in Australia don’t know what generative AI is. This reflects an urgent need to provide relevant information and training to Indigenous communities on the use of the technology.

    There is also concern about the use of AI in classroom contexts and its specific impact on Indigenous students.

    Looking to the future

    Hawaiian and Samoan Scholar Jason Lewis says:

    We must think more expansively about AI and all the other computational systems in which we find ourselves increasingly enmeshed. We need to expand the operational definition of intelligence used when building these systems to include the full spectrum of behaviour we humans use to make sense of the world.

    Key to achieving this is the idea of “Indigenous data sovereignty”. This would mean Indigenous people retain sovereignty over their own data, in the sense that they own and control access to it.

    In Australia, a collective known as Maiam nayri Wingara offers important considerations and principles for data sovereignty and governance. They affirm Indigenous rights to govern and control our data ecosystems, from creation to infrastructure.

    The National Agreement on Closing the Gap also affirms the importance of Indigenous data control and access.

    This is reaffirmed at a global level as well. In 2020, a group of Indigenous scholars from around the world published a position paper laying out how Indigenous protocols can inform ethically created AI. This kind of AI would centralise the knowledges of Indigenous peoples.

    In a positive step, the Australian government’s recently proposed set of AI guardrails highlight the importance of Indigenous data sovereignty.

    For example, the guardrails include the need to ensure additional transparency and make extra considerations when it comes to using data about or owned by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, to “mitigate the perpetuation of existing social inequalities”.

    Indigenous Futurisms

    Grace Dillon, a scholar from a group of North American Indigenous people known as the Anishinaabe, first coined the term “Indigenous Futurisms”.

    Ambelin Kwaymullina, an academic and futurist practitioner from the Palyku nation in Western Australia, defines it as:

    visions of what-could-be that are informed by ancient Aboriginal cultures and by our deep understandings of oppressive systems.

    These visions, Kwaymullina writes, are “as diverse as Indigenous peoples ourselves”. They are also unified by “an understanding of reality as living, interconnected whole in which human beings are but one strand of life amongst many, and a non-linear view of time”.

    So how can AI technologies be informed by Indigenous ways of knowing?

    A first step is for industry to involve Indigenous people in creating, maintaining and evaluating the technologies – rather than asking them retrospectively to approve work already done.

    Governments need to also do more than highlight the importance of Indigenous data sovereignty in policy documents. They need to meaningfully consult with Indigenous peoples to regulate the use of these technologies. This consultation must aim to ensure ethical AI behaviour among organisations and everyday users that honours Indigenous worldviews and realities.

    AI developers and governments like to claim they are serious about ensuring AI technology benefits all of humanity. But unless they start involving Indigenous people more in developing and regulating the technology, their claims ring hollow.

    Tamika Worrell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. AI affects everyone – including Indigenous people. It’s time we have a say in how it’s built – https://theconversation.com/ai-affects-everyone-including-indigenous-people-its-time-we-have-a-say-in-how-its-built-239605

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Violence at all levels’: UN report into the abuse of women and girls in sport is a wake-up call for Australia

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Fitz-Gibbon, Professor (Practice), Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University, Monash University

    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    This week the United Nations (UN) Special Rapporteur on violence against women and girls presented a report detailing the violence experienced by women and girls in sport globally.

    The report provides a global snapshot of the abuse women athletes experience, who is most likely to perpetrate the violence, and makes recommendations on what should been done to promote safety of women and girls.

    Off the back of the Paris Olympic and Paralympic games, where Australia cheered on the record-breaking success of women athletes, the report should be a wake-up call for Australian sports and clubs.

    Abuse of women and girls in sport

    Drawing on more than 100 submissions and consultations with 50 people, the report finds:

    Women and girls in sport face widespread, overlapping and grave forms and manifestations of violence at all levels.

    These abusive behaviours include coercive control, physical violence, corporal punishment, verbal abuse, social exclusion, bullying and identity abuse.

    The impacts of this violence are wide-ranging: physical injuries, insomnia, fear and anxiety, reduced self-confidence, substance misuse, eating disorders, self harm, and decline in athletic performance and participation.

    These impacts can extend well beyond the athlete’s involvement in their sport.

    Women and girls also experience economic violence in sport. For example, when women athletes do not have control over their earnings, or when they are coerced into signing exploitative contracts.

    The report notes women athletes also experience heightened rates of abusive and harassing behaviours in online settings. This includes sexual harassment and threats, racism, ridicule, body shaming, sexualised comments, stalking, doxing and revenge porn.

    Perpetrators are wide-ranging. They include coaches, managers, spectators, teachers, peers, sports lawyers, referees and medical staff.

    The report describes sexual harassment and abuse as “rampant” and acknowledges the high rate of sexual violence, in particular with relationships between coaches and athletes.

    This includes grooming of younger athletes, where power and control dynamics, combined with an abuse of trust between an adult and child athlete, provide the conditions for sexual abuse to proliferate.

    It follows a 2023 report from the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) and UN Women, which estimates 21% of girls worldwide have experienced at least one form of sexual abuse as a child in sport.

    Is this a problem in Australia?

    Australians often pride themselves on how sports bring the nation, communities and families together but we too have a wide-reaching problem in this area.

    In 2021, a review of Swimming Australia found women athletes and coaches had experienced physical and mental abuse while the “Change the Routine” review of Gymnastics Australia revealed child abuse and neglect, misconduct, bullying, abuse, sexual harassment and assault towards gymnasts.

    More recently, a review by Sports Integrity Australia into Australian volleyball, which revealed systemic verbal and physical abuse of athletes, prompted a formal apology to past athletes.

    And a 2024 Deakin University study showed 87% of Australian sportswomen had experienced online harm within the past year.

    A lack of accountability and consequence

    In the traditionally male-dominated culture of sport, abusers have often gone unsanctioned, while those who experience abuse often leave their sport early and with significant consequences to their careers, financial stability, and mental and physical wellbeing.

    There are examples where abuse has been minimised or ignored by those in leadership to protect the reputation of the team or the sporting code, and where coaches have been able to move between teams without consequence.

    Take, for example, the sexual abuse of young female gymnasts by United States coach Larry Nassar.

    The first complaint against Nassar was made in 1997. Despite this, and the numerous other complaints which followed, Nassar remained in his coaching position with USA Gymnastics and Michigan State University until 2015. In December 2017 he was convicted of numerous counts of sexual abuse of minors.

    Outcomes of investigations by sporting bodies often remain confidential. For example, in 2017 the Fremantle Dockers and the AFL were criticised for their use of a “confidentiality agreement” in settling a sexual harassment matter.

    This impunity demonstrates a significant lack of accountability.

    The barriers to reporting abuse in sport

    There are significant barriers to reporting.

    Women elite athletes may fear losing their funding and sponsorship deals if they report abuse.

    In Australia, the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse heard child athletes are most at risk of experiencing abuse by a person of authority (such as a coach) when they are about to achieve their best performance.

    As the UN Report states, it is at this time that “there is very little to gain by revealing the abuse and too much to lose”.

    This must change.

    When sporting codes put a desire to win above safeguarding and accountability, the clear message sent to victims is that violence is excusable, and that sporting heroes are immune to the consequences of their abusive actions.

    Raising awareness around early identification of abusive behaviours is key.

    The UN report reveals athletes often feel uncertain and uncomfortable in identifying early forms of abusive behaviours and lack information on what supports are available to them when they do.

    Ensuring a suite of reporting pathways is also critical. There is no one-size-fits-all model.

    Why Australia should take the lead

    Participating in sport has significant benefits. But sport settings must be safe for all.

    Many sporting organisations and clubs have recognised the problem of abuse of women and girls in sport, rolling out respect and responsibility programs, sexual harassment policies, as well as clearer reporting and investigation policies.

    This is a good start but must be built on.

    Indeed, the safety of women and girls must be a key focus of the Australian High Performance “Win Well” strategy for the Brisbane 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

    Recent initiatives and policy changes should be monitored to examine how they work and whether they deliver safer outcomes for women and girls in sport at all levels.

    Responses to proven allegations of abuse must hold perpetrators to account. And critically, investigations must be independent, transparent and timely.

    The UN report reminds us “sports is a microcosm of society”.

    Violence against women and children in Australia has been declared a national emergency – ensuring the safety of women and girls in all sport settings is one critical component of addressing that crisis.

    Kate has received funding for family violence-related research from the Australian Research Council, Australian Institute of Criminology, Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety, the Victorian, Queensland and ACT governments, the Commonwealth Department of Social Services and the Victorian Women’s Trust. This piece is written by Kate Fitz-Gibbon in her role at Monash University and is wholly independent of Kate Fitz-Gibbon’s role as Chair of Respect Victoria.

    – ref. ‘Violence at all levels’: UN report into the abuse of women and girls in sport is a wake-up call for Australia – https://theconversation.com/violence-at-all-levels-un-report-into-the-abuse-of-women-and-girls-in-sport-is-a-wake-up-call-for-australia-239085

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A patchwork of spinifex: how we returned cultural burning to the Great Sandy Desert

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Braedan Taylor, Traditional Owner; Karajarri Lands Trust Association/UWA, Indigenous Knowledge

    How can a desert burn? Australia’s vast deserts aren’t just sand dunes – they’re often dotted with flammable spinifex grass hummocks. When heavy rains fall, grass grows quickly before drying out. That’s how a desert can burn.

    When our Karajarri and Ngurrara ancestors lived nomadic lifestyles in what’s now called the Great Sandy Desert in northwestern Australia, they lit many small fires in spinifex grass as they walked. Fires were used seasonally for ceremonies, signalling to others, flushing out animals, making travel easier (spinifex is painfully sharp), cleaning campsites, and stimulating fresh vegetation growth ready for foraging or luring game when people returned a few months later. The result was a patchwork desert.

    After colonisation, this ended. Without management, the spinifex and grassy deserts began to burn in some of the largest fires in Australia.

    But now the work of caring for desert country (pirra) with fire (jungku, or warlu) has begun again. We are Karajarri and Ngurrara rangers who care for 110,000 square kilometres of the Great Sandy Desert. Our techniques have changed – we now drop incendiaries from helicopters to cover more distance – but our goals are similar. Guided by our elders, we are combining traditional knowledge with modern technologies and science to refine how we manage fire in a changing world.

    In research published today, we and our co-authors paired analysis of historic fire patterns with five years of fauna surveys. Put together, we found mature spinifex was important for creatures of the Great Sandy Desert – and that means we should burn small and often, like our ancestors.

    Fire and sand

    In the 1940s and ‘50s, the Royal Australian Air Force photographed the Great Sandy Desert from the air. These photos were taken before our people moved to settlements and pastoral stations between the 1960s and ’80s.

    That means these aerial photographs capture a time when traditional burns were still happening.

    Our ranger teams are studying these photographs to draw out the fire patterns produced by our ancestors.

    These photographs tell a story. Our ancestors burned many small areas, creating a complicated patchwork of spinifex at different stages of regrowth after fire.

    But they also left a great deal of mature spinifex – large old hummocks that hadn’t burnt for years. This patchwork of burned and unburned areas made it hard for bushfires to spread far and fast. When traditional burning practices stopped, bushfires became common.

    The knowledge contained in these old photos is very valuable. The images give us clear goals for our fire management. We combine this with guidance from elders and information on fuel loads across Country gleaned from remote sensing and weather modelling, to plan our fire management.

    We could see where our ancestors burnt (white patches) in the Karajarri Indigenous Protected Area in this aerial photo from the late 1940s.
    National Library of Australia, CC BY-NC-ND

    What does fire mean for desert creatures?

    Australian deserts are remarkably biodiverse, especially in reptiles. In a single clump of mature spinifex, you might find up to 18 different species of lizard. Then there are snakes and goannas, as well as mammals such as marsupial moles found only in the arid zone.

    Spinifex hummocks are crucial to many of these species, offering shelter, food and prey. What does fire do to spinifex-dwellers?

    On this topic, scientific knowledge is playing catchup with Indigenous traditional knowledge but we see value in using the scientific method – a universal language – to help us manage Country, and tell other people about what we are doing.

    The past few decades have been a time of major change for the Great Sandy Desert. Cultural burns stopped, and feral animals such as camels and cats grew in number. As a result, many native animals are disappearing or already gone.

    We think larger, more frequent fires play a part. Our Karajarri and Ngurrara rangers are using science to make sure our patchwork burns – known as right-way fire – are good for native animals.

    Between 2018 and 2022, we surveyed reptiles and mammals from 32 sites across the Karajarri and Warlu Jilajaa Jumu (Ngurrara) Indigenous Protected Areas in the desert. We caught almost 3,800 mammals and reptiles from 77 species. Reptiles made up the lion’s share, with 66 species. We also recorded when fire had come through, and how big the burnt patches were.

    The data showed reptile species care a lot about where they live. Some prefer recently burned areas, where the spinifex is gone or still very small. Others like old spinifex, huge hummocks going unburned for years. And others still liked mid-sized spinifex.

    We found mammals were rare in recently burned areas and more common in mature spinifex. We also found more mammal diversity in areas with fine-scale patchworks of fires.

    This shows we must keep our fires small, burning different areas at different times, and protect enough mature spinifex.

    This patchwork approach will help spinifex hopping mice, desert mice, planigales, dunnarts, and dozens of small reptile species to survive. But it will also help now-rare game species, the marlu (red kangaroo in Walmajarri language) and pijarta (emu in Karajarri).

    Our research tells us returning to the traditional burning techniques of our ancestors is still the right thing to do – even though the desert has changed.

    Karajarri Rangers talk about the Pirra Junkgu-Warlu project.

    Rare finds

    Scientists have rarely surveyed the Great Sandy Desert. As a result, our surveys have turned up important findings.

    The kaluta (Dasykaluta rosamondae), for instance, is a feisty little carnivorous marsupial. We found it on the Canning Stock Route, 500km further north than the distribution known to scientists.

    Similarly, we found the threatened Dampierland sandslider (Lerista separanda), a vividly coloured skink, in the Karajarri Indigenous Protected Area, expanding its distribution 450km southeast. Karajarri people call sandsliders winkajurta, or “lice eaters”, because in the old days you could use them to hunt lice in your hair.

    Our research gives us confidence that bringing back traditional burns helps desert creatures. We want more people to know that right-way fire is part of healthy Country, including our own mob and tourists who pass through, so we can all look after the desert.

    In our work, we take our old people out onto Country to get advice on burning and their knowledge of animals. As one told us, seeing the old ways return made him “real happy [and] to come alive” – just like the desert.

    We thank Karajarri and Ngurrara Traditional Owners and acknowledge past and present elders. Thanks to the many rangers and coordinators who helped in these surveys, and our partners: Environs Kimberley, Charles Darwin University, Western Australian Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions, and Indigenous Desert Alliance. Special thanks to Hamsini Bijlani, our project coordinator.

    Braedan Taylor and other rangers in this project were funded by the Australian Government’s Indigenous Protected Area Program, Indigenous Ranger Program, and the National Environmental Science Program via the Threatened Species Recovery Hub; by the Western Australia State Natural Resource Management, Aboriginal Ranger Program, Lotteries West, and via in kind support from the Department of Biodiversity, Conservation and Attractions; by the Indigenous Desert Alliance/10Deserts; and by the Australian Research Council.

    Jacqueline Shovellor receives funding from the same sources as the lead author.

    Frankie McCarthy receives funding from the same sources as the lead author.

    Sarah Legge receives funding from the Australian Research Council. The work reported here was partly funded by the National Environmental Science Program via the Threatened Species Recovery Hub.

    Thomas Narda receives funding from the same sources as the lead author.

    – ref. A patchwork of spinifex: how we returned cultural burning to the Great Sandy Desert – https://theconversation.com/a-patchwork-of-spinifex-how-we-returned-cultural-burning-to-the-great-sandy-desert-240447

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Are you over 75? Here’s what you need to know about vitamin D

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elina Hypponen, Professor of Nutritional and Genetic Epidemiology, University of South Australia

    OPPO Find X5 Pro/Unsplash

    Vitamin D is essential for bone health, immune function and overall wellbeing. And it becomes even more crucial as we age.

    New guidelines from the international Endocrine Society recommend people aged 75 and over should consider taking vitamin D supplements.

    But why is vitamin D so important for older adults? And how much should they take?

    Young people get most vitamin D from the sun

    In Australia, it is possible for most people under 75 to get enough vitamin D from the sun throughout the year. For those who live in the top half of Australia – and for all of us during summer – we only need to have skin exposed to the sun for a few minutes on most days.

    The body can only produce a certain amount of vitamin D at a time. So staying in the sun any longer than needed is not going to help increase your vitamin D levels, while it will increase your risk of skin cancer.

    But it’s difficult for people aged over 75 to get enough vitamin D from a few minutes of sunshine, so the Endocrine Society recommends people get 800 IU (international units) of vitamin D a day from food or supplements.

    Why you need more as you age

    This is higher than the recommendation for younger adults, reflecting the increased needs and reduced ability of older bodies to produce and absorb vitamin D.

    Overall, older adults also tend to have less exposure to sunlight, which is the primary source of natural vitamin D production. Older adults may spend more time indoors and wear more clothing when outdoors.

    As we age, our skin also becomes less efficient at synthesising vitamin D from sunlight.

    The kidneys and the liver, which help convert vitamin D into its active form, also lose some of their efficiency with age. This makes it harder for the body to maintain adequate levels of the vitamin.

    All of this combined means older adults need more vitamin D.

    Deficiency is common in older adults

    Despite their higher needs for vitamin D, people over 75 may not get enough of it.

    Studies have shown one in five older adults in Australia have vitamin D deficiency.

    In higher-latitude parts of the world, such as the United Kingdom, almost half don’t reach sufficient levels.

    This increased risk of deficiency is partly due to lifestyle factors, such as spending less time outdoors and insufficient dietary intakes of vitamin D.

    It’s difficult to get enough vitamin D from food alone. Oily fish, eggs and some mushrooms are good sources of vitamin D, but few other foods contain much of the vitamin. While foods can be fortified with the vitamin D (margarine, some milk and cereals), these may not be readily available or be consumed in sufficient amounts to make a difference.

    In some countries such as the United States, most of the dietary vitamin D comes from fortified products. However, in Australia, dietary intakes of vitamin D are typically very low because only a few foods are fortified with it.

    Why vitamin D is so important as we age

    Vitamin D helps the body absorb calcium, which is essential for maintaining bone density and strength. As we age, our bones become more fragile, increasing the risk of fractures and conditions like osteoporosis.

    Keeping bones healthy is crucial. Studies have shown older people hospitalised with hip fractures are 3.5 times more likely to die in the next 12 months compared to people who aren’t injured.

    People over 75 often have less exposure to sunlight.
    Aila Images/Shutterstock

    Vitamin D may also help lower the risk of respiratory infections, which can be more serious in this age group.

    There is also emerging evidence for other potential benefits, including better brain health. However, this requires more research.

    According to the society’s systematic review, which summarises evidence from randomised controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation in humans, there is moderate evidence to suggest vitamin D supplementation can lower the risk of premature death.

    The society estimates supplements can prevent six deaths per 1,000 people. When considering the uncertainty in the available evidence, the actual number could range from as many as 11 fewer deaths to no benefit at all.

    Should we get our vitamin D levels tested?

    The Endocrine Society’s guidelines suggest routine blood tests to measure vitamin D levels are not necessary for most healthy people over 75.

    There is no clear evidence that regular testing provides significant benefits, unless the person has a specific medical condition that affects vitamin D metabolism, such as kidney disease or certain bone disorders.

    Routine testing can also be expensive and inconvenient.

    In most cases, the recommended approach to over-75s is to consider a daily supplement, without the need for testing.

    You can also try to boost your vitamin D by adding fortified foods to your diet, which might lower the dose you need from supplementation.

    Even if you’re getting a few minutes of sunlight a day, a daily vitamin D is still recommended.

    Elina Hypponen receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Foundation, Medical Research Future Fund, Australian Research Council, and Arthritis Australia.

    Joshua Sutherland’s studentship is funded by the Australian Research Training Program Scholarship, and he volunteers on the board for the Australasian Association and Register of Practicing Nutritionists.

    – ref. Are you over 75? Here’s what you need to know about vitamin D – https://theconversation.com/are-you-over-75-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-vitamin-d-231820

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: It’s time to talk about how the media talks about sexual harassment

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rawan Nimri, Lecturer in Tourism and Hospitality, Griffith University

    Sexual harassment is all too common in hospitality and tourism. One Australian survey found almost half of the respondents had been sexually harassed, compared to about one in three in workplaces more generally.

    Hospitality and tourism are marked by intense and close interpersonal interactions and dismissive treatment by some customers, including verbal and physical aggression, bullying and sexual suggestions.

    Workers who are young, female, low-paid and casual are especially vulnerable.

    The scandals at the Merivale Hospitality Group and Sydney’s Swillhouse restaurant are only the most recent.

    The widely held view that “the customer is always right” gives customers power. The power imbalance is magnified where tipping makes up a substantial part of workers’ earnings.

    What newspapers report

    To examine how sexual harassment is reported, we identified about 2,000 newspaper articles across a number of countries published between 2017 and 2022 dealing with the treatment of hotel room attendants, airline cabin crew and massage therapists. We zeroed in on 273 for closer analysis.

    This was a period in which the public awareness of sexual harassment climbed with the rise of the #MeToo movement and media coverage probably peaked.

    Media coverage matters because of its effect on public opinion.

    Computer-assisted thematic analysis showed four different types of coverage, some overlapping, relating to legal matters, celebrities, power dynamics, and calls to action.

    The language used varied according to the countries in which the newspapers were located.

    In the United States and the United Kingdom, the accused were often described by their social or economic status, with cases involving famous people getting a lot of attention. In Asia and Africa, the reports focused on basic details such as the offender’s age and where they lived.

    Women infantilised

    But universally we found the terms used to describe victims were highly gendered and dated in ways that suggested subservience and undermined their professional skills. Cabin crew were called “air hostesses”. Room attendants were called “maids”.

    Framing these professionals as modern-day servants has the potential to foster and perpetuate an expectation that sexual harassment is to be expected.

    Reports involving celebrity harassers highlighted victims’ narratives with emotionally charged quotes using words such as “awful” and “terrible”. These words were perhaps intended to evoke empathy for the victims but also serve to further victimise them.

    Female aggression under-reported

    In all cases, women were heavily featured as victims but never as aggressors. It is a gender bias that does not match the established statistics, which show that almost one-quarter of aggressors are women.

    This misrepresentation creates a skewed understanding of who commits and suffers from sexual harassment. It has the potential to discourage victims of harassment by women from coming forward.

    It’s important for the tourism industry to foster secure and dignified working conditions. But it is also important that the media reflect the actual behaviour of aggressors and victims.

    Done better, reporting could help

    The media could play a crucial role in bringing about better policies and practices in these industries by emphasising the severe consequences of ignoring the problem and the benefits of taking proactive steps.

    More respectful and accurate reporting might be able to help drive lasting change, making a positive difference in the lives of the skilled workers on whom so many of us depend.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. It’s time to talk about how the media talks about sexual harassment – https://theconversation.com/its-time-to-talk-about-how-the-media-talks-about-sexual-harassment-238771

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Use of AI in property valuation is on the rise – but we need greater transparency and trust

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Cheung, Senior Lecturer, Business School, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    New Zealand’s economy has been described as a “housing market with bits tacked on”. Buying and selling property is a national sport fuelled by the rising value of homes across the country.

    But the wider public has little understanding of how those property valuations are created – despite their being a key factor in most banks’ decisions about how much they are willing to lend for a mortgage.

    Automated valuation models (AVM) – systems enabled by artificial intelligence (AI) that crunch vast datasets to produce instant property values – have done little to improve transparency in the process.

    These models started gaining traction in New Zealand in the early 2010s. The early versions used limited data sources like property sales records and council information. Today’s more advanced models include high-quality geo-spatial data from sources such as Land Information New Zealand.

    AI models have improved efficiency. But the proprietary algorithms behind those AVMs can make it difficult for homeowners and industry professionals to understand how specific values are calculated.

    In our ongoing research, we are developing a framework that evaluates these automated valuations. We have looked at how the figures should be interpreted and what factors might be missed by the AI models.

    In a property market as geographically and culturally varied as New Zealand’s, these points are not only relevant — they are critical. The rapid integration of AI into property valuation is no longer just about innovation and speed. It is about trust, transparency and a robust framework for accountability.

    AI valuations are a black box

    In New Zealand, property valuation has traditionally been a labour-intensive process. Valuers would usually inspect properties, make market comparisons and apply their expert judgement to arrive at a final value estimate.

    But this approach is slow, expensive and prone to human error. As demand for more efficient property valuations increased, the use of AI brought in much-needed change.

    But the rise of these valuations models is not without its challenges. While AI offers speed and consistency, it also comes with a critical downside: a lack of transparency.

    AVMs often operate as “black boxes”, providing little insight into the data and methodologies that drive their valuations. This raises serious concerns about the consistency, objectivity and transparency of these systems.

    What exactly the algorithm is doing when an AVM estimates a home’s value is not clear. Such opaqueness has real-world consequences, perpetuating market imbalances and inequities.

    Without a framework to monitor and correct these discrepancies, AI models risk distorting the property market further, especially in a country as diverse as New Zealand, where regional, cultural and historical factors significantly influence property values.

    Transparency and accountability

    A recent discussion forum with real estate industry insiders, law researchers and computer scientists on AI governance and property valuations highlighted the need for greater accountability when it comes to AVMs. Transparency alone is not enough. Trust must be built into the system.

    This can be achieved by requiring AI developers and users to disclose data sources, algorithms and error margins behind their valuations.

    Additionally, valuation models should incorporate a “confidence interval” – a range of prices that shows how much the estimated value might vary. This offers users a clearer understanding of the uncertainty inherent in each valuation.

    But effective AI governance in property valuation cannot be achieved in isolation. It demands collaboration between regulators, AI developers and property professionals.

    Bias correction

    New Zealand urgently needs a comprehensive evaluation framework for AVMs, one that prioritises transparency, accountability and bias correction.

    This is where our research comes in. We repeatedly resample small portions of the data to account for situations where property value data do not follow a normal distribution.

    This process generates a confidence interval showing a range of possible values around each property estimate. Users are then able to understand the variability and reliability of the AI-generated valuations, even when the data are irregular or skewed.

    Our framework goes beyond transparency. It incorporates a bias correction mechanism that detects and adjusts for constantly overvalued or undervalued estimates within AVM outputs. One example of this relates to regional disparities or undervaluation of particular property types.

    By addressing these biases, we ensure valuations that are not only accountable or auditable but also fair. The goal is to avoid the long-term market distortions that unchecked AI models could create.

    The rise of AI auditing

    But transparency alone is not enough. The auditing of AI-generated information is becoming increasingly important.

    New Zealand’s courts now require a qualified person to check information generated by AI and subsequently used in tribunal proceedings.

    In much the same way financial auditors ensure accuracy in accounting, AI auditors will play a pivotal role in maintaining the integrity of valuations.

    Based on earlier research, we are auditing the artificial valuation model estimates by comparing them with the market transacted prices of the same houses in the same period.

    It is not just about trusting the algorithms but trusting the people and systems behind them.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Use of AI in property valuation is on the rise – but we need greater transparency and trust – https://theconversation.com/use-of-ai-in-property-valuation-is-on-the-rise-but-we-need-greater-transparency-and-trust-240880

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Texas Chain Saw Massacre and its harrowing, visceral impact has been rarely matched, 50 years on

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicholas Godfrey, Senior Lecturer, College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Flinders University

    The Texas Chain Saw Massacre is a product of a unique time in American filmmaking, when independent exploitation films were nastier than ever, and equally capable of piercing the mainstream consciousness.

    Tobe Hooper’s 1974 film arrived in a recently transformed exhibition landscape. The 1967 outcry over onscreen violence in Bonnie and Clyde marked the end of Hollywood’s Motion Picture Production Code and the introduction of film ratings.

    Films like Easy Rider (1969) elevated the standing of formerly disreputable exploitation fare within Hollywood. By 1973, The Exorcist was packing out cinemas and producing lines around city blocks with the promise of the most unremitting horror film yet made.

    The Texas Chain Saw Massacre was shot quickly on a shoestring budget, financed in part by the newly-formed Texas Film Commission. The film assembled its cast and crew from Austin’s circles of recent college graduates and dropouts.

    Its plot is straightforward enough: a group of young people are stranded when they run out of gas in rural Texas. They are terrorised and subsequently murdered by an eccentric local family, including the chainsaw wielding Leatherface – a nonverbal, childlike giant who wears masks made from the skin of his flayed victims.

    We learn this family have lost their jobs at the local slaughterhouse with the introduction of bolt gun technologies, leaving them sell roadside meat made from human victims.

    This detail has inspired a range of thematic interpretations for the film, encompassing commentary on class and family, gender and animal rights.

    The film lays bare the horrors of meat production, inflicted on human victims. The family home is the site where these themes come into conflict.

    Porn and violence on screen

    The Texas Chain Saw Massacre was picked up by the Bryanston Distributing Company. In 1972, Bryanston was the distributor for the theatrical release of the hardcore pornographic film Deep Throat. The film’s success shifted popular discourse around pornography, and helped Bryanston widen the theatrical release for The Texas Chain Saw Massacre.

    In subsequent years, media reported on alleged abusive on-set conditions on Deep Throat, along with claims Bryanston was connected with organised crime. Director Hooper, and many of the Chain Saw Massacre cast, alleged they never received their share of box office from the distributor.

    A 1974 poster.
    Ralf Liebhold/Shutterstock

    The Texas Chain Saw Massacre’s proximity to Deep Throat stoked controversy, conflating concern about increasingly extreme depictions of sex and violence onscreen.

    Two years earlier, young filmmaker Wes Craven had transitioned from making pornography to horror film. His low budget rape-revenge exploitation film The Last House on the Left (1972) was originally developed as a hardcore pornographic film. This approach was abandoned when it entered production.

    Unlike Craven’s notorious film, The Texas Chain Saw Massacre is not overtly sexualised. While there may be a sexual undertone to Leatherface’s pursuit of Sally and her companions, it does not escalate to onscreen acts of sexual violence.

    Regardless, the film drew condemnation, particularly in the United Kingdom, where it was banned, and later figured in public debates about the censorship of “video nasties” in the 1980s.

    For my part, I remember encountering The Texas Chain Saw Massacre at the video rental store as a child: its title, cover and R-rating promised horrors beyond comprehension, many years before I actually saw the film itself.

    Horrors implied, rather than shown

    Beyond its controversies, The Texas Chain Saw Massacre played an important role in the developing field of horror film studies. It figures prominently in Robin Wood’s taxonomy of “reactionary” horror movies (which uphold traditional values) and “progressive” horror movies, which take a more ambivalent stance on the figure of the monster, challenging conservative social values. Wood counts The Texas Chain Saw Massacre in the latter category.

    It is also central to Carol J. Clover’s influential codification of the “final girl” narrative trope, in which a sole young woman is able to withstand the monster’s onslaught.

    Alongside Halloween (1978), The Texas Chain Saw Massacre helped steer the trajectory of American horror films in the 1980s.

    Halloween is situated within the manicured surroundings of suburbia, and conveys its menace through the slick technical qualities of its gliding camera, and John Carpenter’s staccato synth score.

    By contrast, The Texas Chain Saw Massacre locates its horror in the backroads and decrepit farmhouses of central Texas. The idea of Texas looms large, connoting a place of lawlessness, violence and danger.

    Hooper punctuates his long shots with extreme close ups via rapid editing. The film’s most grotesque horrors are implied, rather than shown. Its most visceral impact comes from its extended chase sequences, and via its soundtrack: Sally’s piercing screams, and Leatherface’s ever-present chainsaw.

    While the Texas Chain Saw Massacre spawned several sequels and influenced even more imitators over the years, from the Ramones to Wolf Creek (2005) and X (2022), it has rarely been matched in its intensity, and its harrowing, visceral impact.

    Nicholas Godfrey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The Texas Chain Saw Massacre and its harrowing, visceral impact has been rarely matched, 50 years on – https://theconversation.com/the-texas-chain-saw-massacre-and-its-harrowing-visceral-impact-has-been-rarely-matched-50-years-on-236700

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Evacuating in disasters like Hurricane Milton isn’t simple – there are reasons people stay in harm’s way, and it’s not just stubbornness

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Carson MacPherson-Krutsky, Research Associate, Natural Hazards Center, University of Colorado Boulder

    Evacuation is more difficult for people with health and mobility issues. Ted Richardson/For The Washington Post via Getty Images

    As Hurricane Milton roared ashore near Sarasota, Florida, tens of thousands of people were in evacuation shelters. Hundreds of thousands more had fled coastal regions ahead of the storm, crowding highways headed north and south as their counties issued evacuation orders.

    But not everyone left, despite dire warnings about a hurricane that had been one of the strongest on record two days earlier.

    As Milton’s rain and storm surge flooded neighborhoods late on Oct. 9, 2024, 911 calls poured in. In Tampa’s Hillsborough County, more than 500 people had to be rescued, including a dozen people trapped in a flooding home after a tree crashed though the roof at the height of the storm.

    In Plant City, 20 miles inland from Tampa, at least 35 people had been rescued by dawn, City Manager Bill McDaniel said. While the storm wasn’t as extreme as feared, McDaniel said his city had flooded in places and to levels he had never seen. Traffic signals were out. Power lines and trees were down. The sewage plant had been inundated, affecting the public water supply.

    Evacuating might seem like the obvious move when a major hurricane is bearing down on your region, but that choice is not always as easy as it may seem.

    Evacuating from a hurricane requires money, planning, the ability to leave and, importantly, a belief that evacuating is better than staying put.

    I recently examined years of research on what motivates people to leave or seek shelter during hurricanes as part of a project with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Natural Hazards Center. I found three main reasons that people didn’t leave.

    Evacuating can be expensive

    Evacuating requires transportation, money, a place to stay, the ability to take off work days ahead of a storm and other resources that many people do not have.

    With 1 in 9 Americans facing poverty today, many have limited evacuation options. During Hurricane Katrina in 2005, for example, many residents did not own vehicles and couldn’t reach evacuation buses. That left them stranded in the face of a deadly hurricane. Nearly 1,400 people died in the storm, many of them in flooded homes.

    When millions of people are under evacuation orders, logistical issues also arise.

    Two days ahead of landfall, Milton was a Category 5 hurricane. About 5 million people were under evacuation orders, and highways were crowded.

    Gas shortages and traffic jams can leave people stranded on highways and unable to find shelter before the storm hits. This happened during Hurricane Floyd in 1999 as 2 million Floridians tried to evacuate.

    People who experienced past evacuations or saw news video of congested highways ahead of Hurricane Milton might not leave for fear of getting stuck.

    Health, pets and being physically able to leave

    The logistics of evacuating are even more challenging for people who are disabled or in nursing homes. Additionally, people who are incarcerated may have no choice in the matter – and the justice system may have few options for moving them.

    Evacuating nursing homes, people with disabilities or prison populations is complex. Many shelters are not set up to accommodate their needs. In one example during Hurricane Floyd, a disabled person arrived at a shelter, but the hallways were too narrow for their wheelchair, so they were restricted to a cot for the duration of their stay. Moving people whose health is fragile, and doing so under stressful conditions, can also worsen health problems, leaving nursing home staff to make difficult decisions.

    At least 700 people stayed in chairs or on air mattresses at River Ridge Middle/High School in New Port Richey, Fla., during Hurricane Milton.
    AP Photo/Mike Carlson

    But failing to evacuate can also be deadly. During Hurricane Irma in 2017, seven nursing home residents died in the rising heat after their facility lost power near Fort Lauderdale, Florida. In some cases, public water systems are shut down or become contaminated. And flooding can create several health hazards, including the risk of infectious diseases.

    In a study of 291 long-term care facilities in Florida, 81% sheltered residents in place during the 2004 hurricane season because they had limited transportation options and faced issues finding places for residents to go.

    Some shelters allow small pets, but many don’t. This high school-turned-shelter in New Port Richey, Fla., had 283 registered pets.
    AP Photo/Mike Carlson

    People with pets face another difficult choice – some choose to stay at home for fear of leaving their pet behind. Studies have found that pet owners are significantly less likely to evacuate than others because of difficulties transporting pets and finding shelters that will take them. In destructive storms, it can be days to weeks before people can return home.

    Risk perception can also get in the way

    People’s perceptions of risk can also prevent them from leaving.

    A series of studies show that women and minorities take hurricane risks more seriously than other groups and are more likely to evacuate or go to shelters. One study found that women are almost twice as likely than men to evacuate when given a mandatory evacuation order.

    If people have experienced a hurricane before that didn’t do significant damage, they may perceive the risks of a coming storm to be lower and not leave.

    Video from across Florida after Hurricane Milton shows flooding around homes, trees down and other damage. At least five people died in the storm, and more than 3 million homes lost power.

    In my review of research, I found that many people who didn’t evacuate had reservations about going to shelters and preferred to stay home or with family or friends. Shelter conditions were sometimes poor, overcrowded or lacked privacy.

    People had fears about safety and whether shelter environments could meet their needs. For example, religious minorities were not sure whether shelters would be clean, safe, have private places for religious practice, and food options consistent with faith practices. Diabetics and people with young children also had concerns about finding appropriate food in shelters.

    How to improve evacuations for the future

    There are ways leaders can reduce the barriers to evacuation and shelter use. For example:

    • Building more shelters able to withstand hurricane force winds can create safe havens for people without transportation or who are unable to leave their jobs in time to evacuate.

    • Arranging more shelters and transportation able to accommodate people with disabilities and those with special needs, such as nursing home residents, can help protect vulnerable populations.

    • Opening shelters to accommodate pets with their owners can also increase the likelihood that pet owners will evacuate.

    • Public education can be improved so people know their options. Clearer risk communication on how these storms are different than past ones and what people are likely to experience can also help people make informed decisions.

    • Being prepared saves lives. Many areas would benefit from better advance planning that takes into account the needs of large, diverse populations and can ensure populations have ways to evacuate to safety.

    Carson MacPherson-Krutsky works for the Natural Hazards Center (NHC) at the University of Colorado Boulder. She receives grant and contract funding for her work at NHC through the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and other funders.

    – ref. Evacuating in disasters like Hurricane Milton isn’t simple – there are reasons people stay in harm’s way, and it’s not just stubbornness – https://theconversation.com/evacuating-in-disasters-like-hurricane-milton-isnt-simple-there-are-reasons-people-stay-in-harms-way-and-its-not-just-stubbornness-240869

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Evacuating in disasters like Hurricane Milton isn’t simple – there are reasons people stay in harm’s way, and not just stubbornness

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Carson MacPherson-Krutsky, Research Associate, Natural Hazards Center, University of Colorado Boulder

    Evacuation is more difficult for people with health and mobility issues. Ted Richardson/For The Washington Post via Getty Images

    As Hurricane Milton roared ashore near Sarasota, Florida, tens of thousands of people were in evacuation shelters. Hundreds of thousands more had fled coastal regions ahead of the storm, crowding highways headed north and south as their counties issued evacuation orders.

    But not everyone left, despite dire warnings about a hurricane that had been one of the strongest on record two days earlier.

    As Milton’s rain and storm surge flooded neighborhoods late on Oct. 9, 2024, 911 calls poured in. More than 500 people were rescued in Tampa’s Hillsborough County. Tampa police helped more than a dozen adults and children from a flooding home after a tree crashed though the roof at the height of the storm.

    In Plant City, 20 miles inland from Tampa, at least 35 people had been rescued by dawn, City Manager Bill McDaniel said. While the storm wasn’t as extreme as feared, he said his city had flooded in places and to levels he had never seen. Traffic signals were out. Power lines and trees were down. The sewage plant had been inundated, affecting the public water supply.

    Evacuating might seem like the obvious move when a major hurricane is bearing down on your region, but that choice is not always as easy as it may seem.

    Evacuating from a hurricane requires money, planning, the ability to leave and, importantly, a belief that evacuating is better than staying put.

    I recently examined years of research on what motivates people to leave or seek shelter during hurricanes as part of a project with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Natural Hazards Center. I found three main reasons that people didn’t leave.

    Evacuating can be expensive

    Evacuating requires a car, gas money, a place to stay, the ability to take off work days ahead of a storm and other resources that many people do not have.

    With 1 in 9 Americans facing poverty today, many have limited evacuation options. During Hurricane Katrina in 2005, for example, many residents did not own vehicles and couldn’t reach evacuation buses. That left them stranded in the face of a deadly hurricane. Nearly 1,400 people died in the storm, many of them in flooded homes.

    When millions of people are under evacuation orders, logistical issues also arise.

    Two days ahead of landfall, Milton was a Category 5 hurricane. About 5 million people were under evacuation orders, and highways were crowded.

    Gas shortages and traffic jams can leave people stranded on highways and unable to find shelter before the storm hits. This happened during Hurricane Floyd in 1999 as 2 million Floridians tried to evacuate.

    People who experienced past evacuations or saw news video of congested highways ahead of Hurricane Milton might not leave for fear of getting stuck.

    Health, pets and being physically able to leave

    The logistics of evacuating are even more challenging for people who are disabled or in nursing homes. Additionally, people who are incarcerated may have no choice in the matter – and the justice system may have few options for moving them.

    Evacuating nursing homes, people with disabilities or prison populations is complex. Many shelters are not set up to accommodate their needs. In one example during Hurricane Floyd, a disabled person arrived at a shelter, but the hallways were too narrow for their wheelchair, so they were restricted to a cot for the duration of their stay. Moving people whose health is fragile, and doing so under stressful conditions, can also worsen health problems, leaving nursing home staff to make difficult decisions.

    At least 700 people stayed in chairs or on air mattresses at River Ridge Middle/High School in New Port Richey, Fla., during Hurricane Milton.
    AP Photo/Mike Carlson

    But failing to evacuate can also be deadly. During Hurricane Irma in 2017, seven nursing home residents died in the rising heat after their facility lost power near Fort Lauderdale, Florida. In some cases, public water systems are shut down or become contaminated. And flooding can create several health hazards, including the risk of infectious diseases.

    In a study of 291 long-term care facilities in Florida, 81% sheltered residents in place during the 2004 hurricane season because they had limited transportation options and faced issues finding places for residents to go.

    Some shelters allow small pets, but many don’t. This high school-turned-shelter in New Port Richey, Fla., had 283 registered pets.
    AP Photo/Mike Carlson

    People with pets face another difficult choice – some choose to stay at home for fear of leaving their pet behind. Studies have found that pet owners are significantly less likely to evacuate than others because of difficulties transporting pets and finding shelters that will take them. In destructive storms, it can be days to weeks before people can return home.

    Risk perception can also get in the way

    People’s perceptions of risk can also prevent them from leaving.

    A series of studies show that women and minorities take hurricane risks more seriously than other groups and are more likely to evacuate or go to shelters. One study found that women are almost twice as likely than men to evacuate when given a mandatory evacuation order.

    If people have experienced a hurricane before that didn’t do significant damage, they may perceive the risks of a coming storm to be lower and not leave.

    Video from across Florida after Hurricane Milton shows flooding around homes, trees down and other damage. At least five people died in the storm, and more than 3 million homes lost power.

    In my review of research, I found that many people who didn’t evacuate had reservations about going to shelters and preferred to stay home or with family or friends. Shelter conditions were sometimes poor, overcrowded or lacked privacy.

    People had fears about safety and whether shelter environments could meet their needs. For example, religious minorities were not sure whether shelters would be clean, safe, have private places for religious practice, and food options consistent with faith practices. Diabetics and people with young children also had concerns about finding appropriate food in shelters.

    How to improve evacuations for the future

    There are ways leaders can reduce the barriers to evacuation and shelter use. For example:

    • Building more shelters able to withstand hurricane force winds can create safe havens for people without transportation or who are unable to leave their jobs in time to evacuate.

    • Arranging more shelters and transportation able to accommodate people with disabilities and those with special needs, such as nursing home residents, can help protect vulnerable populations.

    • Opening shelters to accommodate pets with their owners can also increase the likelihood that pet owners will evacuate.

    • Public education can be improved so people know their options. Clearer risk communication on how these storms are different than past ones and what people are likely to experience can also help people make informed decisions.

    • Being prepared saves lives. Many areas would benefit from better advance planning that takes into account the needs of large, diverse populations and can ensure populations have ways to evacuate to safety.

    Carson MacPherson-Krutsky works for the Natural Hazards Center (NHC) at the University of Colorado Boulder. She receives grant and contract funding for her work at NHC through the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and other funders.

    – ref. Evacuating in disasters like Hurricane Milton isn’t simple – there are reasons people stay in harm’s way, and not just stubbornness – https://theconversation.com/evacuating-in-disasters-like-hurricane-milton-isnt-simple-there-are-reasons-people-stay-in-harms-way-and-not-just-stubbornness-240869

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US inflation rate fell to 2.4% in September − here’s what that means for interest rates and markets

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jason Reed, Associate Teaching Professor of Finance, University of Notre Dame

    All eyes on the CPI. Sila Damrongsaringkan/Getty Images Plus

    It wasn’t that long ago that the Federal Reserve, the central bank for the United States, was worrying that annual inflation would surpass 9% in the middle of 2022. The U.S. economy hadn’t seen prices rise that fast since the 1980s, and most everyone feared that a series of interest rate hikes would plunge the economy into a recession.

    What a difference two years can make.

    Inflation cooled to 2.4% in September 2024, according to consumer price index data released by the Labor Department on Oct. 10. That’s down from 2.5% the previous month and in line with market expectations of 2.3% to 2.4%. The inflation rate peaked at 8.9% in June 2022 – a 41-year high.

    The news brings the Fed – and its chair, Jerome Powell – much closer to reaching its 2% inflation target. It also marks the fourth straight month that year-over-year price changes have been below 3% and the third consecutive month of declining inflation rates.

    Speaking as an economist and finance professor, I think this could be a big deal for the Federal Reserve, which next meets – and could again cut interest rates – in November.

    Fodder for another rate cut?

    The Fed has what’s called a dual mandate: It pursues both low inflation and stable employment, two goals that can sometimes be at odds. Cutting interest rates can help employment but worsen inflation, while hiking them can do the opposite.

    Since inflation started to take off during the COVID-19 pandemic, Fed officials have emphasized that their job isn’t done until price increases are back down to the 2% target.

    But in light of recent labor market news, Powell and his colleagues have changed their messaging a bit. This indicates that the upside risks of inflation are lower than the risks associated with a weakening labor market.

    And in September, the Fed slashed the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point, or 50 basis points – the first cut since it began hiking rates in March 2022. The move came as unemployment had ticked up to 4.3% in July, job openings plummeted and broader labor markets weakened.

    Increasingly optimistic markets

    Equity markets rallied on the news of the September rate cut. Investors believe reductions in the federal funds rate, which is a prime rate that helps to dictate mortgage rates, auto loans, credit card rates and home equity lines of credit, will spur increases in investment and consumption, guiding the economy to a so-called soft landing instead of a recession.

    After that meeting, most members of the Federal Reserve Board indicated they would also favor cutting rates by 25 basis points at each of their upcoming November and December meetings.

    Between today’s inflation news and the unexpectedly sunny jobs report on Oct. 4, investors and markets have a lot of news to digest as they consider what path interest rates will take in the months ahead. Many continue to believe that we may well see two 25-basis-point cuts by the end of 2024 – and so do I.

    Jason Reed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US inflation rate fell to 2.4% in September − here’s what that means for interest rates and markets – https://theconversation.com/us-inflation-rate-fell-to-2-4-in-september-heres-what-that-means-for-interest-rates-and-markets-240872

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Humanity’s future depends on our ability to live in harmony with nature

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Liette Vasseur, Professor, Biological Sciences, Brock University

    The world is facing multiple — potentially catastrophic — crises, including inequality, poverty, food insecurity, climate change and biodiversity loss. These issues are interconnected and require systemic solutions, as changes in one system affects others.

    However, human systems have largely failed to acknowledge their connection to ecological systems. Most modern societies have dominating and exploitative relationships with nature, which are underpinned by imperialist and dualistic thinking that divides living beings into racial, gender, class or species hierarchies.

    Our current mindset, with its focus on competition, growth and profit, has been a key contributor to social and ecological crises. Even more alarming is that this mindset has depleted nature to the point that it may soon fail to sustain human and non-human lives entirely.

    Sustainable and equitable well-being

    Policies for future survival and prosperity must address the interconnected crises affecting the world today. These challenges are pushing social and economic systems beyond their sustainable limits.

    While current sustainability efforts, such as those outlined in Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity — a collaboration between scientists and economists from around the world — and the United Nations’ Pact for the Future offer pathways for action, they often fall short. These initiatives, though well-intentioned, remain rooted in a business-as-usual approach.



    Read more:
    Have we reached the end of nature? Our relationship with the environment is in crisis

    This isn’t enough. What’s needed is a transformative shift in how we interact with the natural world. A reciprocal relationship between humans and nature, where humans give back to the environment as much as we take, is essential. Sustainable and equitable well-being must be placed at the centre of human societies.

    Central to this transformation is the need to ensure good lives for all while staying within the Earth’s planetary boundaries. These boundaries are the limits within which humanity can safely operate without causing irreversible environmental harm. This will require a new economic mindset that enables people to live with nature, instead of destroying it.

    Change is daunting, but possible

    Though the scale of change needed may seem daunting, it’s achievable and already in motion in some places. In many communities around the world, like Puget Sound on the northwestern coast of Washington state, people are already living in ways that allow humans and ecosystems to flourish.

    In other regions, like Ecuador and Sumas First Nation, new possibilities are emerging for building human societies that operate within the planetary boundaries. Humans are exceptionally adaptable and have the advantage of foresight and the ability to transform entire systems through ethical collaboration.

    Individual action is one necessary element to accelerate this shift. Change often starts small, with individuals and small groups adjusting their lives. But while personal choices do matter, individuals must also push for systemic changes in their communities, organizations, and broader society.

    To make nature-connected living more widely accessible, collaborative, equitable and intentional efforts are needed. This involves intercultural communication, collaboration and open dialogue to ensure diverse perspectives are considered in decision-making processes.

    Thoughtfully considering the direct and indirect impacts of our action, including the immediate and long-term consequences of any decisions, will create more equitable and sustainable systems.

    People looking to create meaningful change should seek to support a range of groups and organizations dedicated to environmental and social justice. This includes Indigenous leaders and treaty protocols, local authorities, environmental advocacy groups, community organizations or labour unions. A good example of this is the work being done by the UNESCO-recognized biosphere reserves.

    Alternative ways of knowing

    The problems facing the world today are vast and multifaceted, and need to be addressed in multiple ways. Both formal knowledge, like scientific research, and informal knowledge, through the Two-Eyed Seeing principle have roles to play in fostering more equitable nature-human relationships.

    Although western scientific knowledge is often centred in evidence based discussion, many valuable solutions stem from alternative ways of knowing, such as Indigenous ecological knowledge. By welcoming and supporting diverse knowledge holders in creating solutions, we can expand the range of approaches, successes and failures from which humanity can learn.

    Creativity — the essence of adaptability — flourishes when different knowledge systems are woven together. However, this must be done ethically and involve consensual and collaborative exchanges to ensure no knowledge system is exploited or undervalued. We must be careful to avoid repeating the mistakes of imperialism and domination that have created our current planetary crises.

    In addition to rethinking how we approach knowledge, rebuilding strong, interconnected relationships between humans and nature also means rethinking our technological systems.

    Technological innovation has been used to exploit the Earth for short-term gains, but it also holds great potential for positive change. It can either maintain or disrupt the status quo, depending on how we use it.

    To build healthier relationships between people and nature, human societies need to adopt a systems thinking approach. This approach looks at the bigger picture, considering the ecological, cultural, political and social aspects of technology in an integrated manner. It ensures that innovation is guided by principles of sustainability and equity.

    What the future holds

    The future will bring massive changes to Earth’s natural environments, accompanied by shocks to political economic and social systems. The survival of human and non-human beings depends on our ability to plan for these challenges.

    Climate change, biodiversity loss and resource depletion are not isolated problems — they are part of an interconnected web of crises that demand urgent and comprehensive action.

    Incremental approaches are not enough to address the scale of these looming threats. Purposefully co-ordinated actions are needed to shift the current trajectory away from exploitation to one of mutual benefit for humans and the natural world.

    What is needed is radical transformation aimed at creating just and flourishing relationships between nature and humanity for the benefit of all current and future life on Earth.

    Christie Manning, Associate Professor of Environmental Studies at Macalester College; Jacqueline Corbett, Professor of Information Systems, Université Laval; and Simone Bignall, Senior Researcher at the University of Technology Sydney, co-authored this article.

    Liette Vasseur receives funding from New Frontiers Research Program Exploration program in Canada.

    Anders Hayden and Mike Jones do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Humanity’s future depends on our ability to live in harmony with nature – https://theconversation.com/humanitys-future-depends-on-our-ability-to-live-in-harmony-with-nature-233042

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘Cajun Navy’ volunteers who participate in search-and-rescue operations after hurricanes are forming long-lasting organizations

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kyle Breen, Assistant Professor of Sociology, Texas A&M International University

    Volunteers with Savage Freedoms Relief Operation coordinates aid in Swannanoa, on Oct. 7, 2024, after Hurricane Helene severely damaged the North Carolina town. Allison Joyce/AFP via Getty Images

    The volunteers who take part in search-and-rescue operations and then support disaster survivors belong to organizations that have become more formal and established over the past decade. That’s what we found after spending more than four years volunteering alongside eight of these groups to better understand their role and the motivations of the people who participate in these efforts.

    We did this research as part of a larger team of sociologists, an urban planning scholar and emergency management specialists. All of us worked alongside civilian volunteer search-and-rescue groups from Louisiana and Texas between 2017 and 2022 during and after many hurricanes, including Harvey and Laura, the winter storm known as Uri and other major disasters.

    While we volunteered with these organizations, we observed them in action and interviewed their leaders and volunteers to learn why they were making the time and taking personal risks to save others. Many cited their personal values, expressed their need to belong to a group, and said it had helped them find a sense of purpose. Others shared that they were motivated by their personal circumstances and experiences or feelings of guilt, or that this kind of volunteering gave them a deep sense of satisfaction.

    “I lost everything I owned in Katrina. They deemed my family’s property uninhabitable,” said a boater we’ll call Dylan to protect his anonymity. “I can’t sit here after knowing what it is to lose everything.”

    Some volunteers said that one reason why they have repeatedly done this work is to counter stereotypes about people who engage in these efforts. When he’s heard people say, “Oh you’re just out there, doing it for the spotlight,” said Roger, he told us he wants to respond by saying, “Yeah, dude. If you flood, call me, I’ll come get you.”

    While the organizations we researched were based in Louisiana and Texas, the volunteers who participate in these efforts come from across the U.S. and, in some cases, other countries. One volunteer we met was from the United Kingdom.

    After Hurricane Helene destroyed roads in western North Carolina, rescue squads delivered aid by donkey and helicopter.

    Why it matters

    Since Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast in 2005, volunteers have been participating in search-and-rescue efforts after big disasters – especially in that region. But these volunteers come from all over.

    Many of these groups are known as “Cajun Navy” organizations. Whether or not these organizations use the Cajun Navy branding in their names they share, a common mission of helping others in emergencies.

    These volunteers aren’t just operating boats and helicopters. Others serve as dispatchers, handle logistics, and run social media operations.

    Over time, some of the organizations have begun to team up with local emergency responders, signing memorandums of understanding with them. They partner with government agencies while assisting in disaster response and relief efforts, but they primarily operate with autonomy and are able to travel where they perceive the need is greatest.

    This kind of group tends to dissolve after a disaster is over, instead of evolving into an established nonprofit.

    But many of the eight groups we studied have become nonprofits or are in the process of doing so.

    How we do our work

    We were able to do this research by becoming volunteers ourselves. We took part in dispatch operations on the ground and remotely, and we supported logistics planning. We also observed and, in some cases, participated in search-and-rescue training and operations in the water and on land.

    The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work.

    Kyle Breen received funding from the National Science Foundation for this research. He currently holds funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research for other research projects.

    J. Carlee Purdum received funding from The National Science Foundation for this research and for other ongoing projects.

    – ref. ‘Cajun Navy’ volunteers who participate in search-and-rescue operations after hurricanes are forming long-lasting organizations – https://theconversation.com/cajun-navy-volunteers-who-participate-in-search-and-rescue-operations-after-hurricanes-are-forming-long-lasting-organizations-240769

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How the ‘social cost of carbon’ measurement can hide economic inequalities and mask climate suffering

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Majid Hashemi, Adjunct assistant professor, Economics Department, Queen’s University, Ontario

    The social cost of carbon (SCC) is an essential tool for climate decision-making around the world. SCC is essentially a large cost-benefit calculation that helps policymakers compare the benefits of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the society-wide costs of continued use.

    The “right” SCC has long been an open debate, with several studies attempting to estimate it using a range of methods. In fact, there are more than 323 studies that provide varying SCC estimates in one form or another.

    Most studies focus on the global level working with aggregate SCC values from countries around the world. This global value, however, hides an important nuance. When one looks at individual SCC values at the country level a clear picture emerges. Poorer countries have proportionally lower SCCs than richer ones.



    Read more:
    Don’t applaud the COP28 climate summit’s loss and damage fund deal just yet – here’s what’s missing

    To put this in context, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommends a global social cost of carbon at US$208 per ton of CO2 for 2024 (average of recent studies).

    The Government of Canada uses the same EPA value after exchange rate. When this global estimate (i.e., the aggregate damages to the entire planet) is broken down to country-specific estimates (i.e., the damages to a particular country), it reveals SCCs of less than US$1 for poor countries.

    Does this imply that poorer countries bear lower costs due to climate change impacts? Not at all, in fact the reality is quite the opposite. Studies reveal that the damages associated with climate change are proportionally higher for lower-income countries. These damages are often hidden in SCC values in ways that reveal much about the inequalities of our modern world.

    Why is the social cost of carbon lower?

    The answer is the modelling approach.

    To estimate the social cost of carbon, a complicated model integrates multidisciplinary scientific evidence into a single framework to analyze climate change damages. These models incorporate “damage functions” that account for various pathways through which climate change impacts societies.

    Pathways include some of the things that we can measure, such as reduced agricultural productivity, increased energy expenditures for space heating and cooling, flood-related property damages and premature death due to extreme temperatures and weather events.

    Despite the comprehensive nature of these climate damage models, a critical disparity remains. The monetary value of damages is significantly smaller in poorer countries than in richer ones. Again, this does not mean the impacts are less severe; instead, it reflects the lower overall economic value of losses in these regions because of their lower overall income levels.

    One of the three studies referenced by the U.S. EPA’s guidance on SCC finds climate-change-related agriculture damages and premature deaths account for 45 per cent and 49 per cent of the total global damages, respectively. In poorer countries these percentages are likely much lower given both a comparatively undervalued agricultural sector and lower ability to pay for life saving equipment.

    Simply put, extreme global economic inequality hides the very real losses and damages experienced by many in poorer countries. This is because the comparative wealth gap between them and richer countries results in a lower relative SCC value.

    What does this mean?

    To a national policymaker, an almost zero SCC means that climate change-related projects will likely compete neck-and-neck with basic-needs projects (e.g., addressing malnutrition). From the global perspective, this leaves poorer countries with little incentive to allocate resources to the fight against climate change. Poor countries may even see their investments in such efforts as nothing more than donations to richer countries.

    Indeed, from such a simple SCC-based perspective any CO2 emissions reduction step a poorer country takes could result in a higher SCC value in richer countries — a value which they are likely to receive very little of. What can be done to address this imbalance?



    Read more:
    How COP28 failed the world’s small islands

    One proposed solution has been to use the differences in SCC values between poorer and richer countries to inform international climate negotiations on the implied historical responsibility and liability, commonly known as the loss and damage funds.

    Additionally, international development assistance to climate adaptation funds should be more equitably aligned with SCC imbalances to ensure that richer countries — which will benefit more from emission reduction efforts — help bear the burden in supporting poorer countries’ adaptation and mitigation efforts.

    While methods for estimating SCC values have become more sophisticated in recent years, addressing the global-versus-country-specific imbalance requires a combination of financial transfers and practical co-operation between richer and poorer nations. This will help ensure that the costs and benefits of global CO2 emissions reductions are shared more equally, accounting for both ethical and economic considerations.

    Majid Hashemi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How the ‘social cost of carbon’ measurement can hide economic inequalities and mask climate suffering – https://theconversation.com/how-the-social-cost-of-carbon-measurement-can-hide-economic-inequalities-and-mask-climate-suffering-233041

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Hurricane Milton: Flooded industrial sites and toxic chemical releases are a silent, growing threat

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By James R. Elliott, Professor of Sociology, Rice University

    An industrial storage tank overturned by Hurricane Helene in Asheville, N.C., shows the power of fast-moving floodwater. Sean Rayford/Getty Images

    Hundreds of industrial facilities with toxic pollutants are in Hurricane Milton’s path as it heads toward Florida, less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene flooded communities across the Southeast.

    Milton, expected to make landfall as a major hurricane late on Oct. 9, is bearing down on boat and spa factories along Florida’s west-central coast, along with the rubber, plastics and fiberglass manufacturers that supply them. Many of these facilities use tens of thousands of registered contaminants each year, including toluene, styrene and other chemicals known to have adverse effects on the central nervous system with prolonged exposure.

    Farther inland, hundreds more manufacturers that use and house hazardous chemicals onsite lie along the Interstate 4 and Interstate 75 corridors and their feeder roads. And many are in the path of the storm’s intense winds and heavy rainfall.

    Black dots indicate facilities in EPA’s 2022 Toxic Release Inventory within Hurricane Milton’s projected impact zone.
    Rice University Center for Coastal Futures and Adaptive Resilience, CC BY-ND

    Helene’s heavy rainfall in late September 2024 flooded industrial sites across the Southeast. A retired nuclear power plant just south of Cedar Key, Florida, was flooded by Helene’s storm surge.

    In disasters like these, the industrial damage can unfold over days, and residents may not hear about releases of toxic chemicals into water or the air until days or weeks later, if they find out at all.

    Yet pollution releases are common.

    After Hurricane Ian broadsided Florida’s western coast in 2022, runoff that included hazardous materials from damaged storage tanks and local fertilizer mining facilities, in addition to millions of gallons of wastewater, was visible from space, spilling across the coastal wetlands into the Gulf of Mexico. A year earlier, Hurricane Ida triggered more than 2,000 reported chemical spills.

    During Hurricane Harvey in 2017, floodwater surrounded chemical facilities near Houston. Some caught fire as cooling systems failed, releasing huge volumes or pollutants into the air. Emergency responders and residents, who didn’t know what risks they might face, blamed the chemicals for causing respiratory illnesses.

    Many types of toxic material can spread, settle and change the long-term health and environmental safety of surrounding communities – often with little notice to residents. Our team of environmental sociologists and anthropologists has mapped hazardous industrial sites across the country and paired them with hurricanes’ projected impact maps to help communities hold nearby facilities accountable.

    Major polluters on Gulf Coast at high risk”

    The risks from industrial facilities are most obvious along the U.S. Gulf Coast, where many major petrochemical complexes are clustered in harm’s way. These refineries, factories and storage facilities are often built along rivers or bays for easy shipping access.

    But those rivers can also bring storm surge flooding that can raise the ocean by several feet during hurricanes. The storm surge from Helene was over 10 feet above ground level in Florida’s Big Bend and over 6 feet in Tampa Bay. With Milton, forecasters warning of a 10- to 15-foot storm surge at Tampa Bay.

    A boom surrounds flooded railcars to try to contain leaks at a chemical plant in Braithwaite, La., after Hurricane Isaac in 2012.
    AP Photo/David J. Phillip

    A recent study found evidence of two to three times more pollution releases during hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico than during normal weather from 2005 to 2020.

    The effects of these pollution releases fall disproportionately on low-income communities and people of color, further exacerbating environmental health risks.

    Why residents may not hear about toxic releases

    The statistics are disconcerting, yet they get little attention. That is because hazardous releases remain largely invisible due to limited disclosure requirements and scant public information. Even emergency responders often don’t know exactly which hazardous chemicals they are facing in emergency situations.

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requires major polluters to file only very general information about chemicals and on-site risks in their risk management plans. Some large-scale fuel storage facilities, such as those holding liquefied natural gas, are not even required to do that.

    These risk management plans outline “worst-case” scenarios and are supposed to be publicly accessible. But, in reality, we and others have found them difficult to access, heavily redacted and housed in federal reading rooms with limited access. The reason local officials and national scientific review panels often give for the secrecy is to protect the facilities from terrorist attack.

    Oil storage tanks and industrial facilities line the Houston Ship Channel, which is vulnerable to storm surge from Gulf of Mexico hurricanes.
    AP Photo/David J. Phillip

    Adding to this opacity is the fact that many states – including those along the Gulf – suspend restrictions on pollution releases during emergency declarations. Meanwhile, real-time incident notifications from the National Response Center – the federal government’s repository for all chemical discharges into the environment – typically lag by a week or more,

    We believe this limited public information on rising chemical threats from our changing climate should be front-page news every hurricane season. Communities should be aware of the risks of hosting vulnerable industrial infrastructure, particularly as rising global temperatures increase the risk of extreme downpours and powerful hurricanes.

    Mapping the risks nationwide to raise awareness

    To help communities understand their risks, our team at Rice University’s new Center for Coastal Futures and Adaptive Resilience investigates how industrial communities in flood-prone areas nationwide can better adapt to such threats, socially as well as technologically.

    Our interactive map shows where elevated future flood risks threaten to inundate major polluters that we identify using the EPA’s Toxic Release Inventory.

    The U.S. has several hot spots with clusters of flood-prone polluters. Houston’s Ship Channel, Chicago’s waterfront steel industries and the harbors at Los Angeles and New York/New Jersey are among the biggest.

    Three of the biggest hot spots, where large numbers of industrial facilities with toxic materials face elevated future flood risks, are in the Northeast, the northwestern Gulf Coast and the southern end of the Great Lakes.
    Rice University Center for Coastal Futures and Adaptive Resilience, CC BY-ND

    But, as Helene revealed, there can also be great concern in less obvious spots. Inland, particularly in the mountains, runoff can quickly turn normally tame rivers into fast-rising torrents. The French Broad River at Asheville, North Carolina, rose about 12 feet in 12 hours during Helene and set a new flood stage record.

    When hurricanes and tropical storms are headed for the U.S., our interactive maps show where major polluters are located in the storm’s projected cone of impact. The maps identify hazardous flood-prone facilities down to the address, anywhere in the country.

    Knowledge is the first step

    Knowing where these sites are located is only the first step. Often, it’s up to communities themselves, many of them already overexposed and historically underserved, to raise concerns and demand strategies for mitigating the health, economic and environmental risks that industrial sites at risk of flooding and other damage can pose.

    These discussions can’t wait until a disaster is on the way. By knowing where these risks may be, communities can take steps now to build a safer future.

    This article, originally published Sept. 30, has been updated with Hurricane Milton.

    James R. Elliott receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Renewable Energy Lab.

    Dominic Boyer receives funding from the National Science Foundation, NOAA and Texas Sea Grant.

    Phylicia Lee Brown has nothing to disclose.

    – ref. Hurricane Milton: Flooded industrial sites and toxic chemical releases are a silent, growing threat – https://theconversation.com/hurricane-milton-flooded-industrial-sites-and-toxic-chemical-releases-are-a-silent-growing-threat-239977

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Do recent class actions against ‘flex commission’ car loans mean consumer voices are getting stronger?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeannie Marie Paterson, Professor of Law, The University of Melbourne

    Gatot Adri/Shutterstock

    It’s been more than five years since the banking royal commission, but its findings continue to have an impact on the financial services sector.

    Law firm Maurice Blackburn recently announced it had settled with ANZ in a class action over allegedly unlawful “flex commissions” built into car loans made by Esanda between 2011 and 2016.

    ANZ agreed to settle the proceedings for $85 million on a “no admission of liability” basis. However, two further flex commission class actions – against Westpac & St George and Macquarie Leasing – remain on foot and will be heard this month.

    Class actions are a growing trend in the ways consumers seek to access justice. Many cases are simply too small to be pursued individually.

    On top of this, a recent High Court ruling could see organisations come under greater scrutiny over the systems they put in place. Could all of this mean consumers are getting a stronger voice?

    What are flex commissions?

    Many car dealers offer to provide financing for prospective car buyers as an alternative to getting a loan directly from a bank. But dealers typically don’t have their own huge reserves of funds to lend out.

    This financing usually comes from a finance company or bank lender through what is sometimes called a “white label” product.

    Many car dealers offer financing arrangements directly to customers.
    Tikhomirov Sergey/Shutterstock

    Dealers will usually be paid a commission on the loans they arrange by the lender. Prior to 2018, some lenders offered these car dealers arranging loans what is called a “flex commission”.

    Flex commissions allowed car dealers to set the interest rate on car loans above an agreed base rate.

    Higher interest rates meant a greater commission for the car dealer, but were not always in the interests of the borrower.

    Banned and heavily criticised

    Flex commissions were formally banned by Australia’s corporate watchdog, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), in November 2018.

    ASIC had been concerned that borrowers were paying excessively high interest rates on dealer-arranged car loans, and that the commissions were not fair or transparent.

    The watchdog’s own research found about 15% of customers were being charged an interest rate that was 7% or more above the base rate.

    Their main concern was that many car dealers weren’t increasing rates in line with actual credit risk, but rather opportunistically to target inexperienced or vulnerable consumers.

    Shortly after the ban, the final report of the banking royal commission didn’t mince words. Commissioner Kenneth Hayne noted a lack of transparency and a misplaced trust:

    Many borrowers knew nothing of these arrangements. Lenders did not publicise them; dealers did not reveal them. […] To the borrower, the dealer might have appeared to be acting for the borrower by submitting a loan proposal on behalf of the borrower. The borrower was given no indication that in fact the dealer was looking after its own interests.

    Why were class actions needed?

    Neither ASIC’s ban nor the criticisms of the banking royal commission guaranteed any redress for borrowers subject to loans with flex commissions.

    ASIC suggested flex commissions may have contravened the National Consumer Credit Protection Act by being unfair, or the ASIC Act by being misleading. But it is difficult and expensive for individuals to pursue such claims themselves in court.

    ASIC itself can seek compensation on behalf of borrowers, or require redress to be paid as part of other enforcement action. The watchdog has already gone down this road in some of the especially egregious instances of misconduct identified by the royal commission, such as fees for no service.

    Where individual action is too hard or regulator action lacking, consumers’ best option for redress may lie in a class action – taken on a no-win, no-fee basis. The likelihood of a good result may be increased in instances where the class action “piggybacks” on an adverse report from the regulator.

    Corporations may face increasing scrutiny

    It’s reasonable to ask why upstream lenders are being targeted in “flex commission” class actions when it is the car dealers who allegedly wronged borrowers.

    The ongoing class actions do not allege the lenders themselves misled borrowers or treated them unfairly. However, in this context that may not matter.

    In each of the class actions, Maurice Blackburn has argued the car dealers were acting as the representatives of the lenders, which they say makes the lenders responsible for the car dealers’ alleged misconduct.

    A recent High Court ruling may mean corporations have to take greater responsibility for the systems they oversee.
    Shutterstock

    Moreover, in these and similar cases, a recent High Court ruling that centred on “systemic unconscionable conduct” could make it harder for such upstream entities to argue their distance from alleged wrongdoing in systems they put in place.

    Better access to justice

    There has been a rise in consumer protection class actions in recent years, supported by changes in rules of procedure in several jurisdictions.

    Justice Bernard Murphy of the Federal Court of Australia has argued these changes promote the important value of access to justice:

    The important thing to remember is that class actions are critical in ensuring that people can obtain redress for mass civil wrongs. Laws which are not, in fact, readily capable of enforcement by ordinary Australians are little more than an illusion.

    This trend is important. Dishonest or unfair conduct has long been prohibited in the National Consumer Credit Protection Act, but this hasn’t been used much to date.

    Given the current flex commission actions closely follow the findings of ASIC, we should watch the regulator closely for hints of any future actions in other areas. Many could spark discussions that ultimately lead to stronger protection for consumers.

    But when they are successful, we also need to keep an eye on the actual payout to borrowers and hope it takes place without undue delay.

    Jeannie Marie Paterson has previously received funding from the Australian Research Council, DFAT and the Menzies Foundation.

    – ref. Do recent class actions against ‘flex commission’ car loans mean consumer voices are getting stronger? – https://theconversation.com/do-recent-class-actions-against-flex-commission-car-loans-mean-consumer-voices-are-getting-stronger-240795

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: In Vogue: the 90s was a boom time for Australian fashion and faces. What happened?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sasha Sarago, First Nations Cultural Innovation Lead – Beauty and Technology, Charles Sturt University

    The In Vogue: The 90s series transports audiences back to the glamour and grandeur of a transformative decade for fashion. Set against the backdrop of New York, London and Paris, the series explores the rise of supermodels, designer powerhouses and fashion’s global influence. But the fashion scene in Australia – a country that was also enjoying a meteoric rise in international success at the time – does not crack a mention.

    The 1990s marked a golden era for fashion. Supermodels like Linda Evangelista, Naomi Campbell, Cindy Crawford and Christy Turlington became style icons. Designers like Tom Ford, Jean-Paul Gaultier, and John Galliano pushed the boundaries of fashion creating moments that defined the times and influenced everything from pop culture to politics.

    Even though Australia may not have had the runway clout of Paris or New York, the nation was making significant strides in fashion during the same period. Australian designers’ and models’ distinct styles were impressive – giving fashion heavyweights a run for their money.

    So, what went wrong?

    The 90s turned the fashion industry upside down.

    Australian designers, international success

    In the 1990s, Australian designer houses such as Alannah Hill, Collette Dinnigan, Akira Isogawa and Sass & Bide signified Australia’s “coming of age” in fashion, with each designer bringing a unique flair and Australian sensibility to the international market.

    Alannah Hill created a whimsical aesthetic with an edgy twist. Her designs, worn by celebrities Nicole Kidman, Helena Christensen and Courtney Love, earned her a cult following. Business skyrocketed from her Chapel Street boutique in Melbourne to the department stores Selfridges and Browns in London and Bergdorf Goodman and Henri Bendel in Fifth Avenue, New York City.

    In 1996, Collette Dinnigan gained worldwide acclaim as the first Australian designer to showcase her collection at Paris Fashion Week. Dinnigan’s delicate lace dresses and couture craftsmanship found a spotlight at London’s Victoria & Albert Museum’s Fashion in Motion exhibition. Striking while the iron was hot, Dinnigan secured a lingerie collaboration with Marks & Spencer.

    Collette Dinnigan’s designs were celebrated in a 2015 retrospective exhibition.
    4Susie/Shutterstock

    Akira Isogawa, known for his blend of Japanese and Western aesthetics shared his first collection in 1994. He has presented subsequent collections in Paris bi-annually, a legacy sustained since 1998. Innovative from the jump, he turned early constraints to strengths. When the budget for his first big show didn’t stretch to shoes, he sent models down the runway in little red socks. The fashion statement helped him eventually secure more than 50 retail partners.

    Sass & Bide, founded in 1999 by friends Sarah-Jane Clarke and Heidi Middleton, brought a youthful, urban energy from London’s Portobello Road Markets back to Australian shores. Their signature brand quickly gained popularity and was acquired by Myer in a A$42.3 million two-part deal. Australia was no longer a disconnected island but a wild card in the global fashion ecosystem.

    Australian faces and Elaine George’s Vogue cover

    Australian designers weren’t the only superstars gaining fashion fame.

    By the time the supermodel phenomenon etched itself into the fashion zeitgeist, Australian model and businesswoman Elle Macpherson (known then as The Body) was already well known. Australian models Sarah Murdoch, Kristy Hinze, Kate Fisher and Alyssa Sutherland would follow.

    Sarah Murdoch (nee O’Hare, pictured with Anneliese Seubert and Emma Balfour in 1996) graced Australian catwalks in the 90s.
    Patrick Riviere/Getty

    Magazine cover models throughout the 90s showed sun-kissed “girl next door” charm. The exception was Emma Balfour, often touted as Australia’s androgynous counterpart to Kate Moss’s grunge-bohemian look.

    But 1993 produced a turning point in Australia’s beauty paradigm. It was the year Elaine George, Australia’s first Aboriginal fashion model, arrived on the cover of Vogue Australia magazine, making fashion history. Elaine’s presence highlighted the Australian fashion industry’s prioritisation of Eurocentric beauty ideals.

    First Nations beauty and fashion talent urgently needed celebrating. But Vogue’s Australian readers had to wait until October 2000 until Torres Strait Islander singer-songwriter and actress Christine Anu was featured on the cover. The gap showed the stain of underrepresentation and inequity within Australian fashion’s reputation had remained.

    The 2000s, when fashion got much faster

    While the 1990s were a period of optimism and growth for Australian fashion, the momentum failed to continue into the 2000s. Several factors contributed to this decline.

    One of the most significant changes was the rise of fast fashion in the early 2000s. Brands like Zara, H&M and Forever 21 began dominating the global market with affordable, quickly produced garments.

    This shift left many independent designers, including those from Australia, struggling to compete. The slow, meticulous craftsmanship that had defined Australian designers in the 90s could not keep up with the fast-fashion cycle.

    Another challenge was the lack of sustained support for the Australian fashion industry. Unlike New York, London or Paris, which had well-established fashion infrastructures, Australia’s fashion scene was still relatively young. There was no long-term strategy to nurture emerging talent or to promote Australian fashion on a global scale. Many designers either relocated abroad or found it difficult to maintain the same level of success they had achieved in the 90s.

    A new Renaissance?

    The story of Australian fashion in the 1990s is one of promise, yet ultimately missed opportunity. Today, Australia has a chance to enter a new renaissance fuelled by digital innovation and its unique cultures.

    The rise of digital fashion enables Australian designers to break free from the constraints of traditional fashion markets. With virtual clothing (simulated for real wear or digital realms), AI-powered design tools and metaverse runways, Australian creatives can harness technology to showcase their work globally.

    The championing of Indigenous models, designers and multicultural identity is essential. This inclusivity could position Australia as sustainable and ethical fashion innovator and present a compelling alternative to the fast-fashion giants.

    Sasha Sarago does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. In Vogue: the 90s was a boom time for Australian fashion and faces. What happened? – https://theconversation.com/in-vogue-the-90s-was-a-boom-time-for-australian-fashion-and-faces-what-happened-240784

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Clues left by the Alpine Fault’s last big quake reveal its direction – this will help NZ prepare for the inevitable next rupture

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jesse Kearse, Postdoctoral Researcher in Seismology, Kyoto University

    Kate Clark, CC BY-SA

    One of the world’s most anticipated earthquakes is the next major surface rupture of the Alpine Fault in the South Island of New Zealand.

    With a 75% chance of it happening within the next 50 years, there is justified interest in the likely magnitude, extent and intensity of ground shaking and impacts on the landscape, infrastructure and buildings.

    A key – and so far unanswered – question is which direction the fault rupture will take.

    Our new research reveals for the first time that the Alpine Fault ruptured from south to north in the great magnitude 8+ earthquake of 1717.

    We developed our technique to determine rupture direction based on the Kekerengu Fault after the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake. But our method is globally applicable for use in realistic earthquake scenarios and thus can contribute to better societal preparedness.

    In an Alpine Fault earthquake, there’s no direction that’s good news for the West Coast of the South Island. But a north-to-south rupture would send excess seismic energy into the relatively unpopulated region of Fiordland and the Tasman Sea.

    A south-to-north rupture on the other hand is forecast to cause higher intensity shaking in the populated regions of Canterbury, Marlborough, Tasman and the northern West Coast.

    A simulation of the shaking of a south-to-north earthquake along the Alpine Fault. Credit: Brendon Bradley, University of Canterbury.

    In the Kaikōura earthquake, Wellingtonians experienced this influence of rupture direction on shaking intensity. The south-to-north rupture meant more seismic energy was focused towards the capital city than, for example, Christchurch.

    So, while rupture direction has been observed to make a big difference in modern earthquakes, it is not something geologists have been able to directly determine for past earthquakes.

    Markings in the rock face

    The Kaikōura earthquake was well documented by seismographs. We know it started near Waiau in the south and travelled northwards to Cook Strait over a period of two minutes.

    We observed markings that were scratched onto the fault plane. Like coarse sandpaper against wood, these scratches, or “slickenlines”, record movement as rock faces slipped past each other during the earthquake. Some of these markings were curved, and our method can tell us the direction the earthquake rupture was travelling.

    Slickenlines from the Kekerengu Fault, taken days after the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake.
    Kate Clark, CC BY-SA

    Using computer models to simulate how the earthquake unfolded moment by moment, we were able to replicate the curved slickenlines observed in the field and relate them to rupture direction. This gave us the framework we needed to investigate rupture direction for past earthquakes on the Alpine Fault.

    The Alpine Fault hasn’t had a major surface rupture since 1717. During field work, we visited three sites along the fault and examined natural outcrops, carefully exposing the fault plane using hand tools. We found 146 slickenlines, 30 of which were curved.

    Geologist Tim Little measuring slickenlines on the Alpine Fault.
    Nic Barth, CC BY-SA

    The curved geometry of slickenlines from the Alpine Fault’s most recent earthquake indicated it had travelled from the south towards the north. We also found evidence for rupturing in the opposite direction, suggesting that earthquakes can start both north and south.

    On one outcrop, we found evidence of slickenlines from multiple earthquakes – a rare and tantalising find suggesting development of a longer history of rupture direction may be possible.

    The technique we’ve applied is a novel, on-fault observational method for determining past rupture directions. Its full potential is yet to be tested, but already it’s applicable to faults worldwide.

    Our research shows that the last Alpine Fault rupture was from the south, and that both directions are possible. New information about past earthquakes like this helps the scientific community produce realistic scenarios for the next major earthquake.

    We now have direct evidence from the fault itself that we need to prepare for the scenario of very strong to severe shaking for the northern West Coast, Tasman, Marlborough and Canterbury regions in the next major Alpine Fault earthquake.

    Jesse Kearse receives funding from the Royal Society Te Apārangi.

    Nicolas Barth receives funding from the Royal Society Te Apārangi.

    – ref. Clues left by the Alpine Fault’s last big quake reveal its direction – this will help NZ prepare for the inevitable next rupture – https://theconversation.com/clues-left-by-the-alpine-faults-last-big-quake-reveal-its-direction-this-will-help-nz-prepare-for-the-inevitable-next-rupture-240879

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: No savings? No plans? No Great Australian Dream. How housing is reshaping young people’s lives

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wendy Stone, Professor of Housing & Social Policy, Centre for Urban Transitions, Swinburne University of Technology

    Roman Samborskyi/Shutterstock

    Australia’s housing crisis is dramatically reshaping the lives and hopes of young people, highlighted in a new report launched today in Canberra as part of World Homeless Day.

    The research, developed by Swinburne University of Technology and funded by YWCA Australia, provided a platform for young women and gender diverse people from around Australia to share their housing experiences and aspirations.

    Our research found many young people are frustrated about the affordability, quality and security of housing in Australia.

    These housing barriers are changing the traditional life course that many of these young people expected to follow, undermining their sense of what it means to be an “adult”.

    Louise, 26, told us, as part of our research:

    I don’t feel like an adult sometimes because of my living circumstances … I thought I’d be like ‘Sex and the City’, having my own apartment and going out for drinks with my friends. But none of us have time to do that.

    The report highlights how such housing barriers and frustrations are severely impacting young people’s relationships, health and wellbeing, education, employment, and ability to plan for the future.

    Housing dreams are ratcheted down

    Home ownership is still “the great Australian dream” for many. However, numerous young people feel buying a home is out of reach or impossible.

    Erin, a young woman in her late 20s, states:

    It feels like you have to buy a house to be in the game, but to get there it just feels completely out of our grasp. And that’s quite scary.

    For many, buying or even renting is seen as unattainable without a partner. This has gendered implications where young women need to depend financially on a partner, potentially leading to disadvantage in the future.

    Amy, 30, articulates:

    It’s very hard to get a rental as a single female […] the uncertainty of not getting another place keeps me here.

    Participants with hopes of having children express anxiety when their housing circumstances are unpredictable and/or unaffordable.

    Jamie, a non-binary person in their mid-20s, says:

    The biggest negative impact of being stuck on the lowest end of the rental market is that it severely limits my ability to plan to start a family. My partner and I both want a child but are terrified of the idea of not being able to afford rent with a new baby and limited family support.

    Health and wellbeing are undermined

    Young people describe feeling overwhelmed, hopeless, trapped and crushed by their housing situations. For some, this stems from the daily challenge of simply making ends meet.

    Celia, a woman in her late 20s, describes:

    The constant cycle of living in a place for a year, getting a massive rent increase, having to find a new place and move again is exhausting, financially unsustainable and demoralising. It feels pretty hopeless because I’m stuck in this cycle and I’ll never save for a house deposit because I’m losing it all on exorbitant rent.

    For other participants, the health and wellbeing impact stems from their less-than-ideal dynamics at home, with many living with family as adults to save on rent.

    As Zoe, a woman in her late 20s, describes:

    It’s like you don’t pay with money to live with family […] but you pay with your mental health.

    Relationships and safety are affected

    Compromised safety is a concern among young women and gender diverse people we spoke with – whether it be escaping family and domestic violence, living in housing that is physically safe (such as with working locks on doors and windows), or sharing with others comfortably.

    Our research found gender has a material impact on housing experiences, and shaped young women’s and gender diverse people’s perceptions of safety.

    Julia, a woman in her early 20s, highlighted safety concerns:

    My family home was filled with a lot of domestic violence. And so when I left and now I have my own place, I feel very, very safe there in comparison. And also no one in my family knows where I live. So that makes me feel very safe.

    Some of the challenges of living with family were summarised by Ryde, a non-binary person in their early 20s:

    Even now I’m like learning how to like be my own person while still being under my parents’ roof […] like still living at home is a bit emotionally kind of weird.

    So what needs to change?

    Participants involved in the research provide a number of solutions for addressing their housing barriers, including:

    Beth told us:

    I feel like our education totally failed us. I always think there needs to be some kind of unit in Year 11 or 12, like a compulsory unit where it’s like just life skills. So taxes, superannuation, getting your first job, buying your first house, getting into the rental market. If we have the skills or knowledge from that education, we might be able to make more informed choices.

    Finally, young people urgently need a seat at the table when it comes to decisions about housing. They know what is needed and what politicians need to hear.

    In the words of Taylor, a 24-year-old woman:

    I think one thing that the politicians struggle to understand is that we’re not asking for, you know, four bedroom, three bathrooms at $400.00 a week. We’re asking for houses with working locks. No mould. And you know, we’re asking for very basic secure housing at affordable prices, it’s not a matter of us being picky. It’s a matter of health and safety.

    (All participants’ names have been changed).

    Wendy Stone receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI), the Australian Research Council (ARC), the Brian M. Davis Charitable Foundation, Housing for the Aged Action Group (HAAG), Kids Under Cover and YWCA Australia, the funder of the research this article reports on. She has previously received funding from the Victorian Government.

    Catherine Hartung received funding from YWCA Australia to undertake this research.

    Sal Clark received funding from YWCA Australia to undertake this research

    Zoe Goodall has received funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI), the Victorian government, the Brian M. Davis Charitable Foundation, Kids Under Cover, and YWCA Australia. YWCA Australia funded the research this article reports on.

    – ref. No savings? No plans? No Great Australian Dream. How housing is reshaping young people’s lives – https://theconversation.com/no-savings-no-plans-no-great-australian-dream-how-housing-is-reshaping-young-peoples-lives-240435

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Yes, nature is complex. But saving our precious environment means finding ways to measure it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Wintle, Professor in Conservation Science, School of Ecosystem and Forest Science, The University of Melbourne

    Shutterstock

    Nature loss directly threatens half the global economy. The rapid destruction of biodiversity should alarm the many Australian businesses dependent on nature, such as those in agriculture, tourism, construction and food manufacturing. Yet nature considerations are often ignored in business decision-making.

    At the Global Nature Positive Summit in Sydney this week, scientists, politicians, conservationists and business leaders have gathered to discuss ways to help nature in Australia – not just by protecting it from damage, but improving it. Getting more businesses interested in – and taking positive action on – nature conservation is key to the talks.

    Reducing the environmental impact of a business first requires measuring that impact. It might seem an impossibly difficult task. After all, nature is a diverse and intricate web of connections. How can we capture that in a number?

    After all, nature is complex – but measuring how a business intersects with it need not be.

    Uncovering impacts on nature

    The fishing industry depends directly on stocks of wild fish. And a housing developer has a direct impact on nature if they clear natural vegetation to build a new suburb.

    Businesses interactions with nature can be indirect, too – for example, a margarine producer who uses canola oil from a grower who depends on bees for pollination. Builders might indirectly harm rainforests in Indonesia by buying timber grown there. A superannuation company investing in that developer is also having an indirect negative impact.

    From next year, Australian companies will be required to measure and report their climate impacts. While businesses are not yet required to disclose their impacts on nature more broadly, many are moving in that direction – both in Australia and globally.

    For example in 2022, more than 400 of the world’s largest corporations called for mandatory disclosure of nature impacts. They included Nestlé, Rio Tinto, L’Oréal, Sony and Volvo. And many early-adopter businesses have begun voluntary disclosures.

    Guidelines are available to help businesses understand and measure their impacts, however progress is slow. This is partly due to a perception from business that the task is too complex.

    Nature assessment is challenging. Unlike identifying a company’s contributions to climate change – by measuring tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions – there is no agreed single measure of impacts on nature.

    What’s more, different people ascribe different values to aspects of nature. Rightly or wrongly, for instance, most people would probably value a koala over a mosquito.

    What do you value more – a koala or a mosquito?
    Shutterstock

    Drawing on the expertise of ecologists

    Despite the difficulties, gauging the extent to which a business affects the environment can be done. Essentially, it involves three steps:

    1. understanding how a business broadly intersects with nature

    2. evaluating how specific business activities intersect with and put pressure on nature

    3. measuring and reporting the degree to which specific activities are impacting on the condition of nature. In other words, is the state of animals, plants and ecosystems improving or worsening?

    Online tools such as ENCORE can get businesses started on the first step – understanding a business’ broad impacts and dependency on nature.

    Many businesses are moving to the second stage – evaluating the specific business activities that put pressure on the environment, and determining the extent to which businesses depend on particular services ecosystems provide.

    The pressure a business places on nature can be measured via specific metrics, such as the amount of water consumed, air pollutants emitted, waste generated or area of land changed. Again, a suite of online tools and metrics can help with this.

    The next step is more complicated, yet essential. It requires businesses directly measuring their impacts on specific animals, plants and ecosystems. For this, we can turn to the expertise of ecologists.

    Individuals of a species can be hard to count, and extinction risk can be hard to measure. So ecologists often describe and monitor a species’ habitat – the environments in which a species can survive and reproduce – as a proxy for the fate of the species itself.

    Ecosystems – such as a rainforest, wetland or desert – can be described as being in good or poor condition. The rating depends on whether all the ecosystem’s plants, animals and other components are present, or whether unwanted components, such as weeds or invasive species, are found there.

    A graphic showing how ecologists measure the state of nature.
    TNFD

    In addition, maps, showing ecosystem condition and extent are available for much of Australia.

    Habitat mapping is also available for most threatened animals and plants, and thousands of other species. And mapping exists for World Heritage areas, important wetlands, national parks, Indigenous Protected Areas and other environment types.

    These resources are not difficult or expensive to access, and people and organisations with the skills to interpret and use such data are becoming more common.

    Some businesses are attempting these measurements. For example, plantation forestry company Forico last year prepared a natural capital report on a range of nature metrics, including the extent of species habitats, and assessment of vegetation condition.

    But many businesses are not yet grappling with this deeper nature analysis.

    This map, from ecosystem research organisation TERN, is one of many freely available to businesses seeking nature data.
    TERN

    Looking ahead

    We have the information and metrics to help businesses measure their impact on nature.

    Collaboration is urgently needed between business and nature experts, so the data available can be tailored to the needs of businesses, and presented in a form they can use.

    Governments can support this – for example by establishing accessible and practical online data platforms, and funding training for more nature experts who understand business.

    A new federal government agency, Environment Information Australia, will also hopefully become an important hub for data and information.

    By measuring what might seem immeasurable, businesses can become part of the solution to the nature crisis. There is cause for optimism – but no time to waste.

    Brendan Wintle has received funding from The Australian Research Council, the Victorian government, the NSW government, the Queensland government, the Commonwealth National Environmental Science Program, the Ian Potter Foundation, the Hermon Slade Foundation and the Australian Conservation Foundation. Wintle is a Board Director of Zoos Victoria and a lead councillor of the Biodiversity Council.

    Sarah Bekessy receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Ian Potter Foundation and the European Commission. She is a Lead Councillor with The Biodiversity Council, a board member of Bush Heritage Australia, a member of the WWF Eminent Scientists Group and an advisor to ELM Responsible Investment, the Living Building Challenge and Wood for Good.

    Simon O’Connor is affiliated with the Australian government as a member of the Minister for Environment and Water’s Nature Finance Council, and previously oversaw the national consultation group for the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures

    William Geary receives funding from the Victorian government and is associated with the Victorian Department of Energy, Environment and Climate Action.

    – ref. Yes, nature is complex. But saving our precious environment means finding ways to measure it – https://theconversation.com/yes-nature-is-complex-but-saving-our-precious-environment-means-finding-ways-to-measure-it-240583

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Being on TikTok is a modern political necessity. Look no further than Peter Dutton

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Grantham, Lecturer in Communication, Griffith University

    TikTok

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s recent decision to join TikTok marks a big shift in his approach to political campaigning. He previously criticised the platform over security concerns, but now he is embracing it.

    Dutton’s reversal reflects a broader trend of Australian politicians using the platform. This is especially the case in 2024, a year marked by pivotal elections worldwide.

    TikTok offers a unique form of engagement and allows politicians to reach a wide range of voters in ways traditional platforms don’t.

    Dutton’s conservative first post does contrast with TikTok’s casual and engaging style, but signals a willingness to adapt to modern political communication. While his initial concerns about TikTok’s data privacy remain valid, his shift to actively using the platform emphasises its importance in political campaigns today.

    TikTok’s rise as a political tool

    The political landscape is changing. Politicians worldwide who once criticised TikTok are now joining it.

    This shift not only marks evolving campaign strategies but also raises broader questions about the role of social media in democracy.

    Major political figures, such as US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, continue to use TikTok despite proposed bans in the United States. These bans are currently being contested in court, but are due to commence in January 2025.

    The continued use of TikTok by both candidates underlines the platform’s undeniable significance in shaping political communication.

    TikTok’s popularity stems from its ability to deliver accessible and engaging content. Voters are drawn to TikTok as a source of political news and information because of its easy-to-consume format.

    TikTok allows politicians to bypass the formalities of traditional political communication and present their messages in a relatable way.

    For instance, Senator Fatima Payman’s viral “skibidi” speech is a clear example of how effectively TikTok can amplify political content. She delivered this speech in the Australian Senate, using only TikTok slang.

    It resonated with a younger demographic, and so far has more than eight million views.

    As a result, her account now has more than 100,000 followers and continues to receive significant views on all posts.

    However, when leaning into slang, trends and other visibility strategies, politician walk a fine line where content could be considered “cringe”. This cringe factor can arise if the trend being used is losing relevance or when the content seems out of place or forced (Dutton himself copped some flack for belatedly jumping on the “demure” trend).

    The role of authenticity

    One of the key factors behind successful political engagement on TikTok is authenticity. The platform thrives on genuine, relatable content. Politicians who can showcase a more human side tend to resonate with voters.

    Payman’s use of TikTok slang in her speech connected her with younger audiences, demonstrating the power of speaking the language of the platform’s primary users. Authenticity plays a significant role in TikTok’s algorithm, making it essential for politicians to come across as sincere.

    Because TikTok’s advertising policy bans political ads, politicians must rely on organic content to engage users. Authenticity is therefore an entry requirement.

    Dutton’s presence on TikTok will be closely scrutinised to see how he balances the platform’s demand for authenticity with his public persona. Voters are more likely to engage with politicians they find relatable, so Dutton’s ability to reveal his “ordinary” side without making people cringe may determine how well he is received on TikTok.

    Electioneering on TikTok

    TikTok’s impact on elections has already been demonstrated in several countries.

    In the 2022 Australian federal election, the Labor Party’s use of the app was linked to its success. UK Labour’s similar strategy in 2024 mirrored this result.

    Elections are won and lost for many reasons. There is also no direct data linking TikTok content to voter decisions. But there is a clear correlation between effective use of the platform and electoral victories.

    As Australia approaches its next federal election, TikTok will play a central role in how parties reach voters. For politicians like Dutton, mastering the balance between authenticity and policy will be key to successfully engaging and informing voters on this rapidly evolving platform.

    Challenges ahead

    TikTok’s short video format poses a challenge for conveying complex policy ideas, often leading to oversimplification. Politicians like Dutton must find ways to deepen engagement outside the platform to ensure voters understand their positions.

    Another challenge is the legal issues TikTok faces, particularly in the US. If the platform is banned or restricted in what is a major market, it could affect its use globally, including in Australia. This could disrupt political outreach and engagement strategies, particularly for those who have cultivated a strong presence.

    Dutton’s engagement with TikTok may also spark debate about balancing the benefits of reaching voters through a platform with concerns about data security and misinformation.

    Susan Grantham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Being on TikTok is a modern political necessity. Look no further than Peter Dutton – https://theconversation.com/being-on-tiktok-is-a-modern-political-necessity-look-no-further-than-peter-dutton-240009

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Israel has banned the UN secretary-general. Is this legal – or right?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samuel Berhanu Woldemariam, Lecturer in law, University of Newcastle

    In early October, Israel’s foreign minister, Israel Katz, announced on X he had declared the United Nations secretary-general, António Guterres, persona non grata. In other words, he had banned Guterres from setting foot in Israel.

    Katz said Guterres’ failure to “unequivocally condemn” Iran’s recent attack on Israel was the reason he was no longer welcome. The strongly worded statement further accused the UN chief of failing to “denounce” Hamas’ massacre in southern Israel on October 7 2023. He added:

    A secretary-general who gives backing to terrorists, rapists and murderers from Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and now Iran — the mothership of global terror — will be remembered as a stain on the history of the UN.

    Security Council members expressed their support for Guterres after Katz’s declaration. And Guterres’ spokesperson called it “a political statement” and “just one more attack […] on UN staff” by the Israeli government.

    What is the significance of Israel’s declaration? And what kind of impact could it have?

    What does persona non grata mean?

    The Latin phrase persona non grata means “an unwelcome person”. In international law, it refers to the right of states to exclude a diplomat or consular officer from their territory. This can take the form of expelling a diplomat or denying them entry.

    Under international conventions, nations are not required to provide a reason for such a declaration.

    Diplomats and consular staff enjoy a wide range of immunities and privileges under international law. Among other things, they cannot be subjected to any form of arrest or detention, nor can they face legal action in a criminal or civil court.

    The diplomat’s home nation must waive immunity for this kind of action to be taken.

    The concept of persona non grata was therefore devised as a way to balance against these immunities and privileges. A nation that is aggrieved by the actions of a diplomat or consular officer can simply bar them from their territory, without even providing a reason.

    Can UN officials be declared persona non grata?

    There is a longstanding debate between the UN and its member states about the legality of such declarations.

    The UN maintains its officials cannot be barred from member nations because they are not diplomats accredited to those countries. Rather, they are international civil servants who are accountable to a global organisation.

    The UN also notes that declaring its officials persona non grata seriously interferes with the organisation’s functions, as well as the powers of the UN secretary-general under the UN Charter.

    Many countries, however, do not agree with the UN’s position. In recent years, Ethiopia, Mali, Sudan and Armenia have all declared UN officials to be persona non grata, just to name a few.

    Israel’s declaration is only the second time a nation has specifically banned the UN secretary-general. The first time was in the 1950s when both the Soviet Union and the Republic of China declared the first secretary-general, Trygve Lie, persona non grata.

    In 1961, the Soviet Union also said it would not recognise Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjold as an “official of the United Nations”.

    Power must be handled with restraint

    I am researching this issue, which has not yet been widely explored. My study is looking at two main questions: whether states have the right to bar UN officials and the implications of doing this.

    On the first question, I believe there are strong legal reasons to support the rights of states to kick out – or keep out – UN officials.

    For one, nations have a wide scope of sovereign rights to decide who enters and leaves their territory. This is a cardinal principle of sovereignty.

    If UN officials are suspected of engaging in conduct harmful to a country’s national interests and security, it also has a right to defend and protect itself. One way of doing so is to expel the suspected UN official.

    Lastly, there is no direct rule under international law that prohibits this kind of action.

    Beyond these legal rights, however, is the important issue of what such an action means for the longer-term credibility and efficacy of the UN.

    Because countries are not required to provide a reason for banning a foreign diplomat, this makes it a powerful political weapon if used against a UN official.

    And banning UN officials specifically could also seriously jeopardise the organisation’s work and put innocent lives at risk. This is especially true in the context of armed conflicts where the UN is called upon to provide humanitarian assistance.

    For example, in 2021, Ethiopia expelled five UN humanitarian officials who were providing food, medicine, water and other life-saving items to more than 5 million people in a region that was engaged in armed conflict with the federal government. Given the expelled officials were high-ranking staff, the action disrupted the co‑ordination and provision of assistance.

    And banning the secretary-general, in particular, is perhaps the strongest indicator of the breakdown of the relationship between a state and the UN.

    The secretary-general is the chief international civil servant and the embodiment of the organisation. Their leadership is also critical for providing emergency relief, brokering ceasefires and promoting peace.

    Declaring the secretary-general persona non grata, therefore, seriously damages his or her standing, especially in the context of an armed conflict. It’s also a strong political statement against the UN more broadly, which could significantly complicate its humanitarian work.

    Therefore, while countries do have the sovereign power to declare UN officials persona non grata, they need to exercise restraint in how they use this power. What such restraint should look like is an open question, but one that must be urgently addressed.

    The author’s ongoing research work on the topic has received internal funding support from the College of Humanities and Social Futures at The University of Newcastle, NSW.

    – ref. Israel has banned the UN secretary-general. Is this legal – or right? – https://theconversation.com/israel-has-banned-the-un-secretary-general-is-this-legal-or-right-240674

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  • MIL-Evening Report: Huge waves in the atmosphere dump extreme rain on northern Australia

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fadhlil Rizki Muhammad, Graduate Researcher, The University of Melbourne

    Bureau of Meteorology via AAP

    In 2023, almost a year’s worth of rain fell over ten days in parts of northwestern Australia, leading to catastrophic flooding in the town of Fitzroy Crossing and surrounds. The rainfall was linked to a tropical cyclone, but there were also lesser-known forces at work: huge, planet-scale oscillations called atmospheric waves which bring heavy rain to northern Australia.

    While climate drivers such as El Niño and La Niña are becoming more familiar to many Australians, fewer understand the significant role played by atmospheric waves, which are like vast musical notes resonating around the globe. These waves can greatly influence rainfall and extreme weather events in Australia – and we don’t know yet whether they could grow more intense as the world warms.

    In our latest research, we discovered how these waves affect Australia’s rainfall, and how they can help us make better weather forecasts. The research is published in the Journal of Climate.

    What are atmospheric waves?

    You can think of atmospheric waves as huge musical notes that travel through the atmosphere around the equator. Just like a musical note, an atmospheric wave has a frequency (a pitch, or how often it oscillates) and an amplitude (a volume or intensity).

    Atmospheric waves can interact with each other to create complex melodies and harmonies in the atmosphere. They affect many aspects of the atmosphere, such as wind, humidity and pressure.

    In the same way musical harmony can evoke emotions, certain combinations of atmospheric waves can lead to complex clusters of clouds that evoke extreme rain events.

    Equatorial atmospheric waves were first discovered mathematically in 1966 by Japanese researcher Taroh Matsuno. By solving equations that describe the behaviour of the atmosphere near the equator, he found waves that could be categorised by frequency, structure, speed and direction of movement.

    Later research found these waves exist in the real world – and they have been studied ever since.

    Some of the most important waves are called Kelvin waves and equatorial Rossby waves. Kelvin waves are centred around the equator, propagate to the east, and take between 2.5 and 17 days to complete one oscillation.

    On the other hand, equatorial Rossby waves are structured as a pair of swirls, one north of the equator and one to the south, which propagate to the west. They are also slower than Kelvin waves, taking between 9 and 72 days to complete an oscillation.

    There are also two other kinds of equatorial fluctuations, discovered after Matsuno’s original work. These are the Madden–Julian Oscillation, which propagates eastward, and tropical depression-type waves, which propagate to the west. Both of these have their own frequencies and influences on the Australian atmosphere.

    Impacts on Australian weather

    We studied the relationship between these waves and rainfall in northern Australia from 1981 to 2018. We found the waves had a significant impact on rainfall during the southern summer (December–February) and autumn (March–May).

    Equatorial Rossby waves that cross Australia may make heavy rainfall around 1.5 times as likely as normal, while tropical depression-type waves make it 1.3 times more likely.

    When waves combine in certain ways, heavy rain events become even more likely.

    Atmospheric waves travelling around the equator can increase the chances of heavy rain – and combinations of waves can have an even greater impact.
    Fadhlil Rizki Muhammad

    For example, a combination of an equatorial Rossby wave and the Madden–Julian Oscillation can make heavy rain in northern Australia two to three times more likely. Similarly, if a tropical depression-type wave and an equatorial Rossby wave cross Australia at the same time, heavy rainfall could be twice as likely as usual.

    Due to Australia’s vast landmass and local geography, the impacts of these waves are quite different across the continent. Regions such as the Kimberley, Cape York and the Top End experience the largest impact from these waves, increasing the chance of heavy rain by up to 3.3 times.

    Meanwhile, the impacts of these waves on the eastern coast of Queensland and inland Queensland are not as great as in the other regions. However, the change in likelihood is still quite high: the waves can make heavy rain 1.4–2.2 times more likely than it would otherwise be.

    What does the future look like?

    We have shown that the activity of these “atmospheric melodies” is important and potentially provides room for improvement in weather models.

    Currently, a good representation of these waves in weather models can improve forecasts up to two weeks ahead.

    A better representation of these waves may improve future weather prediction in the tropics.

    In addition, the impact of these waves in a warmer world is still a mystery. Recent research suggests some atmospheric waves, such as Kelvin and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, could become more intense, potentially with more organised cloud clusters and significant impacts on heavy rain events.

    Fadhlil Rizki Muhammad receives funding from The University of Melbourne and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.

    Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and the National Environmental Science Program.

    Claire Vincent receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century

    Sandro W. Lubis receives funding from U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research as part of Global and Regional Model Analysis program area. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is operated by Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC05-76RLO1830.

    – ref. Huge waves in the atmosphere dump extreme rain on northern Australia – https://theconversation.com/huge-waves-in-the-atmosphere-dump-extreme-rain-on-northern-australia-240788

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  • MIL-Evening Report: These 5 ‘post-truth’ claims are fuelling the water wars in Australia

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Quentin Grafton, Australian Laureate Professor of Economics, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

    Mr Privacy/Shutterstock

    The contest between truth and post-truth matters when trying to solve big public policy questions. One of these questions is how to sustainably manage water in Australia for the benefit of all.

    Truths can be confirmed or, at the very least, can be proved false. Post-truths, however, are opinions that masquerade as facts and are not supported by verifiable evidence.

    Post-truths muddy political and policy debates. They leave everyday people simply not knowing what to believe anymore. This prevents good policy being enacted.

    As I outline in a speech to the National Press Club today, several post-truths, espoused by a wide range of people and organisations, are getting in the way of Australian water reforms. These reforms are essential to secure a better water future for the driest inhabitable continent.

    Water policy in Australia is now at a crucial juncture. This year is the 20th anniversary of the National Water Initiative that was meant to lay the foundations for sustainable water management. The completion date of the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, accompanied by billions of dollars in funding, is just two years away.

    Yet the so-called “water wars” are raging again. Here are five post-truth claims to watch out for.

    Australia’s water wars are raging again.
    Shutterstock

    1. Water buybacks to sustain rivers harm communities

    The Australian government buys water rights from willing sellers to return water to the environment. These buybacks have been controversial and blamed, with little evidence, for causing many farmers to become distressed and bankrupt, and to leave farming.

    It’s true some irrigators are opposed to buybacks and prefer subsidies to build more efficient irrigation infrastructure on their properties.

    But converting state water licences to a system of tradeable water rights gifted irrigators rights now worth tens of billions of dollars. In return, the government was supposed to buy back enough water from willing sellers to return rivers to health.

    But insufficient water has been bought back from irrigators, for a couple of reasons.

    First, the federal budget for buybacks was much less than needed to reduce irrigators’ water use to sustainable levels.

    Second, the Abbott government capped buybacks in 2015. Its justification was the post-truth claim, based on “low quality” consultant reports, that buybacks were “destroying” irrigation communities.

    The truth is, buybacks from willing sellers are much more cost-effective than taxpayer-subsidised irrigation infrastructure. Research shows infrastructure subsidies give irrigators an incentive to use even more water.

    And there is robust evidence that, overall, the net social and economic impacts of water buybacks are positive. They give sellers the flexibility to adjust their farming practices in ways that are best for them.

    2. Efficient irrigation ‘saves’ water and increases stream flows

    Australia’s irrigation industry, in general, uses water efficiently. It’s a result of many practices, ranging from drip irrigation to covered water channels to digital monitoring technology, among other things.

    However, spending on irrigation efficiencies has not saved much water.

    Landholders have been paid billions of dollars for efficiency improvements. These same taxpayer dollars, paradoxically, may have reduced stream flows in some of our largest rivers. That’s because more efficient irrigation can decrease the amount of water flowing from farmers’ fields to rivers and aquifers.

    3. Australia has world-best water management

    Australia has one of the world’s largest formal water markets. But that doesn’t mean everyone benefits.

    For a start, the water markets are unjust. First Peoples, who were dispossessed of their land and water from 1788 onwards, still have only a tiny share of Australia’s water rights.

    In key areas, Australian water management is also far from best practice. For example, building weirs and dams has partly or completely disconnected groundwater from surface water and prevented or restricted the water flows to floodplains and wetlands that keep them healthy.

    Fish, bird and invertebrate habitats have been destroyed as a result. This must change if we are to avoid further degradation of river ecosystems.

    There is no more obvious sign of the ongoing destruction of Australia’s waterways than the fish kills along the Baaka (Lower Darling River) at Menindee. This happened in 2018–19, during a drought, and again in early 2023, when there was no drought.

    The New South Wales Office of the Chief Scientist and Engineer investigated the 2023 fish kill. Its report found:

    Mass fish deaths are symptomatic of degradation of the broader river ecosystem over many years […] failure in policy implementation is the root cause of the decline in the river ecosystem and the consequent fish deaths.

    4. All Australians have reliable access to good-quality water

    It’s true that residents of Australia’s biggest cities and towns enjoy reliable, good-quality water supplies 24/7. But it’s also true that hundreds of thousands of Australians in rural and remote areas regularly face multiple drinking water threats.

    These threats result in temporary public advice notices to boil water to remove microbiological pollution and health warnings about contaminants that boiling cannot remove, such as nitrates. A few dozen communities have elevated levels of the “forever chemicals”, PFAS, in their tap water.

    5. Dams can ‘drought-proof’ Australia

    It’s true that dams have helped Australia cope with variable rainfall from year to year. It’s also true, however, that despite building very large water storages in the 20th century, too much water is being diverted in multiple places. They include the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia’s “food bowl”.

    Australia is over-extracting the available water in its dams. It’s happening in the northern Murray-Darling Basin, where there is little control over how much overflow from rivers onto floodplains can be taken.

    Over-extraction is a big problem, especially during long droughts when there may be very little water to spare. It means the livelihoods of downstream irrigators with perennial plantings, such as grapes or fruit trees, are at stake. If their trees die, so do their businesses.

    A sustainable future must be built on facts

    Responding to Australia’s water crises is a huge challenge. It’s made even more difficult if we accept the post-truth claims, rather than verifiable facts about how we manage our waters.

    Real reform is needed to secure a sustainable Australian water future. To achieve this, we must tell the truth, acknowledge what’s wrong and be clear about what works and what doesn’t.

    Quentin Grafton receives funding from the Australian Research Council in relation to his water research. He is a former Member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists (2010-2011).

    John Williams is affiliated as founding member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, a former Chief CSIRO Land and Water and former NSW Comissioner of Natural Resources.

    – ref. These 5 ‘post-truth’ claims are fuelling the water wars in Australia – https://theconversation.com/these-5-post-truth-claims-are-fuelling-the-water-wars-in-australia-239941

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