NewzIntel.com

Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: Peter Weir’s The Cars That Ate Paris – a driving force in Ozploitation filmmaking

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark David Ryan, Professor, Film, Screen, Animation, Queensland University of Technology

    IMDB

    It has been 50 years since the cinema release of Peter Weir’s iconic, offbeat, cult classic The Cars That Ate Paris. The film seared the image of a silver Volkswagen Beetle weaponised with deadly spikes into the national imagination. It also helped shape the tropes of Ozploitation filmmaking within the history of Australian cinema.

    Main character Arthur Waldo (Terry Camilleri) and his older brother drive through idyllic countryside, filmed like a tourism commercial. But when a sign diverts them off the highway towards the fictitious town of Paris, it soon becomes clear the place survives on a “crash economy”.

    Older men in the community orchestrate car crashes on the road into Paris and survivors are taken to a hospital where a psychopathic doctor experiments on them. The townsfolk trade luggage from the cars for food and clothing and wrecks are salvaged by youths who terrorise the community.

    The mayor of Paris (John Meillon) pities Arthur and adopts him into his family. Arthur is eventually forced to work as the town’s sole parking inspector, gripped by a phobia of driving, having caused more than one death from behind the wheel.

    A uniquely Australian genre

    Cars was Australia’s first “car crash” film. These were Ozploitation films, which privileged “low” culture and sensationalist sex, violence, nudity or gore to shock viewers after the R rating was introduced in 1971.

    The Mad Max franchise later popularised the car-crash trope to create what has been regarded as a uniquely Australian film genre in the 1970s and 1980s. Movies in this canon included Chain Reaction (1980), Dead End Drive-In (1986) and Road Games (1981).

    Both The Cars That Ate Paris and Weir’s next feature – Picnic at Hanging Rock (1975), which would catapult him onto the global stage – marked a critical turning point for Australian cinema. They generated increased interest from distributors and film buyers in international markets and established the Australian Gothic style.

    Cars is one of our most iconic Australian horror movies, but it is paradoxically a movie most Australians have never seen.

    ‘No one leaves Paris … no one.’

    The slow burn of success

    Cars was Weir’s second feature film and a far more polished effort than his first experimental horror. Homesdale (1971) is about the owners of a guesthouse performing hideous social experiments on characters already suffering trauma.

    Cars was the first Australian movie to screen at France’s prestigious Cannes Film Festival. It marked a significant achievement for a local movie during the rebirth of the local movie industry, after the production of fiction movies had collapsed during the 1950s.

    To market the film, Car’s producers drove the spiked Volkswagen around Cannes’ streets in an ingenious attempt to hype its screening during a packed festival schedule. The film was well received, but as critic David Stratton observed, it proved just too different from anything Australian filmmakers had made before, and indeed to anything being made anywhere.

    The film failed to secure a distributor or reach large audiences at home or abroad – though it was released several years later in North America as The Cars That Eat People.

    A cult following

    A key reason for the movie’s slow reception was also why it became a cult classic: it defies filmic categories. It was originally promoted as a horror movie before being marketed as an art film. This was partly because the movie’s tone shifts jarringly from parody and black comedy to social commentary, before settling on all-out horror.

    The film was later released with a different title.
    IMDB

    The story is mostly a dark comment on authority, normality and car culture, which descends into schlock violence in the final act. After the older patriarchy punishes youths for terrorising the streets, a gang of monstrous cars – including the iconic porcupine VW beetle – idle on a darkened hill to the sound of animal noises. The killer cars attack the town, leading to murder, mayhem and a violent battle.

    Authur, drawn into the fight, kills one of the youths by repeatedly reversing over him. But rather than express shock or regret, he delights at being cured of his phobia. Arthur drives out of town joyously as survivors of the carnage flee the burning town.

    Some things don’t change

    The movie’s longevity comes from how it tackles social issues at the heart of the national character. Onscreen we see a dark critique of our obsession with cars and the “hoon culture” that results in tragic speeding or drink-driving-related deaths every year.

    The movie also examines tensions between generations. The older, conservative generation arranges car crashes before hypocritically attending church services and preaching justice. The younger hoons bristle at being controlled in a town where they see no future.

    One of the movie’s lasting thematic contributions to Ozploitation film is Weir’s depiction of the economic fragility and inopportunity of rural economies that lead to absurdly immoral activities.

    More recently, the 2010 film The Clinic adapted this premise by portraying the small town of Montgomery as reliant on an illegal international adoption ring. Townsfolk steal babies and force their mothers to fight to the death in an abandoned abattoir while affluent foreign couples watch on monitors to determine which baby they will adopt.

    The Clinic is a bleak, absurd example. But it shows how The Cars That Ate Paris continues to influence Australian cinema in profound and surprising ways.

    Mark David Ryan has received funding from the Australian Film Institute Research Collection (AFIRC) fellowship and is a co-founding member of the Streaming Industries and Genres Network (SIGN).

    – ref. Peter Weir’s The Cars That Ate Paris – a driving force in Ozploitation filmmaking – https://theconversation.com/peter-weirs-the-cars-that-ate-paris-a-driving-force-in-ozploitation-filmmaking-237233

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: International student caps are set to pass parliament, ushering in a new era of bureaucratic control

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Norton, Professor in the Practice of Higher Education Policy, Australian National University

    The federal government’s controversial plan to limit international student numbers is now almost certain to win parliamentary approval. But it looks like there will be some changes to the original bill introduced in May.

    A Senate committee, which has a Labor majority, has recommended the bill be passed with amendments. The government is expected to accept the committee’s suggestions.

    What did the committee find and what does this mean for caps on international student numbers?

    Clashing views in parliament

    In the inquiry report, Coalition senators criticised the government’s handling of international education. But they continued to support the idea of putting a limit on international students.

    The Greens’ dissenting report completely rejected the idea of caps. The Greens don’t have the Senate numbers to block them, but they may find common ground with the Coalition on some amendments to influence the final outcome.

    Changes to caps on courses

    The government’s original legislation would let the minister set international student caps by education provider, location and course.

    Caps by provider and location are meant to reduce pressure on accommodation and other services, especially in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. This is a key goal of the bill and other recent changes to international student policy.

    But course-level enrolment caps are not necessary to achieve this.

    As the inquiry report notes, most international students do not stay in Australia permanently. So they should be allowed to choose courses based on their own interests and job opportunities in their home countries.

    The report also notes significant administrative issues involved with setting and monitoring caps for the more than 25,000 courses on offer to international students.

    But the report does not take these points to the logical conclusion of recommending no caps on courses. Instead, it proposes no course caps for universities or TAFEs. Non-university higher education providers and non-TAFE vocational education providers could still be subject to course-level caps.

    After the report was released, Education Minister Jason Clare cited advice about some vocational providers offering courses that “don’t give [students] a real qualification”.

    Coalition senators may seek the full removal of course caps from the bill – in the Senate report, they criticise what they call the “appalling treatment of many private higher education and [vocational education and training] providers”. With support from the Greens, course caps could be stopped.

    A new power to exempt some categories of students

    The government has flagged it wants to exempt students from the Pacific or Timor-Leste and some students on government scholarships from the new cap regime.

    That would require amendments to the original bill, which the Senate inquiry also recommends. This change is unlikely to face any Senate obstacles.

    An earlier date for announcing caps

    The bill requires caps to be announced by September 1 in the year before the caps apply, except for this year when the deadline is December 31.

    This date was criticised because international students receive offers before September. Education providers need to know their caps before they start making offers.

    The Senate report recommends a July 1 announcement instead.

    Huge powers for the minister

    As drafted, the bill gives the minister extraordinary personal power to set international student caps. It sets no limit on the reasons for setting caps. It requires no consultation prior to setting caps, other than the minister for education consulting the minister for skills.

    The Senate report suggests improvements to this process. The education minister would also need to consult the immigration minister and the regulators for vocational education and higher education.

    The report also says education providers should be consulted on the initial setting of enrolment limits each year. With around 1,500 providers registered to offer courses to international students, this consultation may need to be with their representative groups.

    More scrutiny for the caps?

    The bill has a dual system for setting caps. One of these is via a “legislative instrument”, which the minister makes. This can be disallowed by either house of parliament and is the only limit on the minister’s power.

    But the bill also allows the minister to bypass the parliament with a “notice” to education providers. This has the same practical effect as the legislative instrument.

    The bill’s explanatory memorandum (the document to help readers understand legislation), offers a benign explanation for this. It says the minister will only exercise the power of using a notice in limited circumstances. Its examples include when the education provider has supplied additional student accommodation, or needs to expand to take students from other providers that have gone out of business.

    Nothing in the bill, however, limits the use of capping by notice.

    In a submission to the inquiry, I recommended requiring parliamentary scrutiny of the way caps are set. The legislative instrument would set out rules and formulas for calculating the cap. The notice to education providers would have to apply these rules and formulas to their specific circumstances.

    The Senate committee majority, however, recommended a much weaker form of scrutiny. It suggested replacing the notice with a “notifiable instrument”. This would ensure the provider’s cap was publicly available. The notices, by contrast, only go to to the affected education provider, the Department of Education, and the relevant regulator.

    A notifiable instrument would allow more public scrutiny of the minister’s decisions, for people who keep an eye on the government’s legislation website. But it falls well short of a system in which parliament is always directly notified of caps and given the power to intervene.

    A turning point

    The Senate inquiry partly answers some criticisms or weaknesses of the bill. It’s likely the bill will next be debated when parliament sits in November.

    But whatever views people hold on capping international students – and with the student visa holder population nearing 700,000 there is a case for moderation – we are witnessing a major turning point in higher education.

    This bill, in combination with planned controls on domestic student enrolments, signals the demise of student choice and university autonomy. A new era of bureaucratic control from Canberra is arriving.

    Andrew Norton is employed by the Australian National University, which has announced major job cuts that it partly blames on the capping of international student enrolments.

    – ref. International student caps are set to pass parliament, ushering in a new era of bureaucratic control – https://theconversation.com/international-student-caps-are-set-to-pass-parliament-ushering-in-a-new-era-of-bureaucratic-control-240988

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Space isn’t all about the ‘race’ – rival superpowers must work together for a better future

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Art Cotterell, Research Associate, School of Regulation and Global Governance, Australian National University

    Artist’s concept of the docked Apollo and Soyuz in 1975. David Meltzer/NASA

    In recent years, a new “space race” has intensified between the United States and China. At a campaign rally last weekend, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump invoked this rivalry when declaring the US will “lead the world in space”, echoing Democratic counterpart Vice President Kamala Harris.

    Meanwhile, the president of China, Xi Jinping, has said becoming “a space power is our eternal dream”.

    But what is this latest “race” about, and are there pathways to common ground? History suggests these do exist. As a space governance specialist, I argue our future depends on it.

    The ‘race’ to the Moon

    Lunar missions have become synonymous with a “space race”. During the Cold War, the US and Soviet Union’s competition to achieve that first “one small step” on the Moon was a symbolic and strategic quest for political, technological, military and ideological dominance on Earth.

    Geopolitical tensions are again moving off-Earth. The US and China are leading separate missions which aim to return humans to the Moon. One goal is to further scientific research. But space mining and economic expansionism are also driving these efforts.

    This new “race” may give rise to new conflicts, especially over prime landing sites and valuable and scarce resources speculated to be located on the lunar south pole.

    Mining water ice could produce oxygen, drinking water and rocket fuel – all vital for sustaining lunar exploration and beyond. The Moon may also contain rare earth metals used in everyday electronics, and a rare non-radioactive isotope, helium-3, for nuclear power.

    Space mining could lead to a concerning “lunar gold rush” or trade war with nations and private actors in space. Resources mined off-Earth are predicted to be worth trillions of dollars.

    The US has a longer history of demonstrated space-faring capabilities, investments and partnerships. Yet China is catching up. While the US made its first uncrewed landing on the lunar south pole this year, China has made several landings. In June this year, China’s Chang’e 6 mission returned with the first rock and soil samples from this sought-after region of the Moon.

    International Space Station’s Expedition 72 crew pose for a portrait on September 29 2024. For the past two decades, the ISS has been a great example of space collaboration.
    NASA Johnson

    How are nations working together on space?

    Both superpowers have invited other nations to join them in realising their lunar visions. This week the Dominican Republic became the 44th signatory to the US-led NASA Artemis Accords.

    Thirteen other nations are participating in the China-led International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) in collaboration with Russia. Senegal joined last month.

    With no membership overlap between the two initiatives, new “space blocs” are emerging, reflective of global power dynamics.

    The Artemis Accords and ILRS are currently not legally binding, but they will be influential in shaping space governance in the 21st century. This is because treaty-making in the United Nations’ Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS, established in 1959) hasn’t kept pace with the latest developments and actors in space.

    Nor has space governance adequately engaged with growing ethical questions, including on space colonisation and light pollution caused by satellites.

    We’re at a critical juncture. It’s important the emergence of these new “space blocs” doesn’t escalate into a contest over whose space governance approach prevails. Not only could this increase the risk of conflict on the lunar surface itself, but it could even fuel geopolitical instability and military competition on Earth.

    History shows we can work together

    Space has fostered cooperation even between superpower rivals during tense geopolitical times. During the Cold War, the US and Soviet Union cooperated on space governance, laws, science and technologies. This built mutual trust and eased tensions.

    Within COPUOS, nations worked together to agree on what became the first of multiple foundational space law treaties, the Outer Space Treaty in 1967. It prohibits placing nuclear weapons in space and national appropriation claims over celestial bodies like the Moon.

    A joint Moon landing never eventuated. But in 1975, the Apollo and Soyuz spacecrafts docked while in orbit. This marked the first international human spaceflight partnership, a historic feat made possible thanks to technical cooperation and diplomacy. COPUOS heralded this as inspiring ongoing cooperation.

    More recently, NASA’s International Space Station (ISS) has been an orbiting testament to coexistence. Astronauts from the US, Russia and other partners have conducted over 3,000 experiments in microgravity.

    At the recent UN Summit of the Future, video messages from the ISS and China’s Tiangong space station astronauts reaffirmed the importance of international cooperation and the peaceful uses of space.

    From rhetoric to practice

    Humanity has much to lose if global superpowers don’t cooperate on space governance. There is a real and growing risk of exporting and exacerbating our earthly conflicts in space. This will invariably increase tensions on Earth.

    The US and China need to explore opportunities to open dialogue between the Artemis Accords and ILRS. There are some similarities in their separate planned activities, governing principles and guidelines already.

    To make this happen, the US will need to revisit the 2011 Wolf Amendment, a law that restricts NASA from using its funding to cooperate with China, without congressional approval. But China has no equivalent and recently expressed its willingness to cooperate, including sharing its rock and soil samples.

    Sharing scientific information may help find initial common ground before further discussions on space governance. This could even move towards agreeing on landing sites or a lunar time zone. If a rescue mission is ever necessary on the Moon, having some compatible technology through interoperability would make it much easier.

    The US and China do actively engage in COPUOS, including in the working group on space resources. Yet treaty-making is often slow moving. This means greater opportunities for communication, consistency and certainty on space governance are imperative. This could even support multilateral efforts.

    Perhaps a joint lunar research mission between the US and China – in the spirit of the Apollo-Soyuz docking – can still happen in the future.

    In the meantime, the world needs to see space not only in terms of a “race”. It’s also an opportunity to improve international relations, benefiting our future humanity on Earth and, one day, beyond.

    Art Cotterell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Space isn’t all about the ‘race’ – rival superpowers must work together for a better future – https://theconversation.com/space-isnt-all-about-the-race-rival-superpowers-must-work-together-for-a-better-future-240543

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Is TikTok right? Can adding a teaspoon of cinnamon to your coffee help you burn fat?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Evangeline Mantzioris, Program Director of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Accredited Practising Dietitian, University of South Australia

    Evannovostro/Shutterstock

    Cinnamon has been long used around the world in both sweet and savoury dishes and drinks.

    But a new TikTok trend claims adding a teaspoon of cinnamon to your daily coffee (and some cocoa to make it more palatable) for one week can help you burn fat. Is there any truth to this?

    Not all cinnamon is the same

    There are two types of cinnamon, both of which come from grinding the bark of the cinnamomum tree and may include several naturally occurring active ingredients.

    Cassia cinnamon is the most common type available in grocery stores. It has a bitter taste and contains higher levels of one of the active ingredient cinnamaldehyde, a compound that gives cinnamon its flavour and odour. About 95% of cassia cinnamon is cinnamaldehyde.

    The other is Ceylon cinnamon, which tastes sweeter. It contains about 50-60% cinnamaldehyde.

    Does cinnamon burn fat? What does the research say?

    A review of 35 studies examined whether consuming cinnamon could affect waist circumference, which is linked to increased body fat levels. It found cinnamon doses below 1.5 grams per day (around half a teaspoon) decreased waist circumference by 1.68cm. However, consuming more than 1.5g/day did not have a significant effect.

    A meta-analysis of 21 clinical trials with 1,480 total participants found cinnamon also reduced body mass index (BMI) by 0.40kg/m² and body weight by 0.92kg. But it did not change the participants’ composition of fat or lean mass.

    Another umbrella review, which included all the meta-analyses, found a small effect of cinnamon on weight loss. Participants lost an average of 0.67kg and reduced their BMI by 0.45kg/m².

    The effect appears small.
    Radu Sebastian/Shutterstock

    So overall, the weight loss we see from these high-quality studies is very small, ranging anywhere from two to six months and mostly with no change in body composition.

    The studies included people with different diseases, and most were from the Middle East and/or the Indian subcontinent. So we can’t be certain we would see this effect in people with other health profiles and in other countries. They were also conducted over different lengths of time from two to six months.

    The supplements were different, depending on the study. Some had the active ingredient extracted from cinnamon, others used cinnamon powder. Doses varied from 0.36g to 10g per day.

    They also used the two different types of cinnamon – but none of the studies used cinnamon from the grocery store.

    How could cinnamon result in small amounts of weight loss?

    There are several possible mechanisms.

    It appears to allow blood glucose (sugar) to enter the body’s cells more quickly. This lowers blood glucose levels and can make insulin work more effectively.

    It also seems to improve the way we break down fat when we need it for energy.

    Finally, it may make us feel fuller for longer by slowing down how quickly the food is released from our stomach into the small intestine.

    What are the risks?

    Cinnamon is generally regarded as safe when used as a spice in cooking and food.

    However, in recent months the United States and Australia have issued health alerts about the level of lead and other heavy metals in some cinnamon preparations.

    Lead enters as a contaminant during growth (from the environment) and in harvesting. In some cases, it has been suggested there may have been intentional contamination.

    Some people can have side effects from cinnamon, including gastrointestinal pain and allergic reactions.

    One of the active ingredients, coumarin, can be toxic for some people’s livers. This has prompted the European Food Authority to set a limit of 0.1mg/kg of body weight.

    Cassia cinnamon contains up to 1% of coumarin, and the Ceylon variety contains much less, 0.004%. So for people weighing above 60kg, 2 teaspoons (6g) of cassia cinnamon would bring them over the safe limit.

    What about the coffee and cocoa?

    Many people may think coffee can also help us lose weight. However there isn’t good evidence to support this yet.

    An observational study found drinking one cup of regular coffee was linked to a reduction in weight that is gained over four years, but by a very small amount: an average of 0.12kg.

    Good-quality cocoa and dark chocolate have also been shown to reduce weight. But again, the weight loss was small (between 0.2 and 0.4kg) and only after consuming it for four to eight weeks.

    So what does this all mean?

    Using cinnamon may have a very small effect on weight, but it’s unlikely to deliver meaningful weight loss without other lifestyle adjustments.

    We also need to remember these trials used products that differ from the cinnamon we buy in the shops. How we store and how long we keep cinnamon might also impact or degrade the active ingredients.

    And consuming more isn’t going to provide additional benefit. In fact, it could increase your risk of side effects.

    So if you enjoy the taste of cinnamon in your coffee, continue to add it, but given its strong taste, you’re likely to only want to add a little.

    And no matter how much we’d like this to be true, we certainly won’t gain any fat-loss benefits by consuming cinnamon on doughnuts or in buns, due to their high kilojoule count.

    If you want to lose weight, there are evidence-backed approaches that won’t spoil your morning coffee.

    Evangeline Mantzioris is affiliated with Alliance for Research in Nutrition, Exercise and Activity (ARENA) at the University of South Australia. Evangeline Mantzioris has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, and has been appointed to the National Health and Medical Research Council Dietary Guideline Expert Committee.

    – ref. Is TikTok right? Can adding a teaspoon of cinnamon to your coffee help you burn fat? – https://theconversation.com/is-tiktok-right-can-adding-a-teaspoon-of-cinnamon-to-your-coffee-help-you-burn-fat-240683

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia’s child support system can put single mothers at risk of poverty and financial abuse

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kay Cook, Professor and Research Director, School of Arts, Social Sciences and Humanities, Swinburne University of Technology

    KieferPix/Shutterstock

    Australia’s child support system can not only increase women’s poverty, but can actually facilitate financial abuse, according to our recent research.

    Child support is an important system that aims to share the financial burden of raising children between separated parents.

    But there are some serious problems with the way it operates, putting already vulnerable women further at risk.

    Drawing on the experiences of 675 single mothers, we sought to examine women’s experience with the child support system from start to finish.

    Our research suggests four key changes could improve both women’s safety and financial wellbeing.

    How does child support work?

    Where deemed necessary, child support arrangements typically require one separated parent to make payments to the other, on a regular basis.

    How much is paid and how it is collected can vary in different circumstances.

    The amount agreed to be paid in child support can take in a range of factors, such as the cost of childcare.
    AKIRA_PHOTO/Shutterstock

    In some families, a child support recipient’s income will be too high to receive the family tax benefit – a key payment that assists with the costs of raising children.

    In this instance, a family can decide for itself how much will be paid, to whom, and how.

    This is called self management, but it is very difficult to navigate when abuse is present in a relationship.

    For families that do collect the family tax benefit, separated parents can use Services Australia to calculate the amount that will be paid.

    Services Australia will consider factors including what it costs to care for and educate a child, as well as the difference in income between the two parents.

    Once the amount has been calculated, separated parents can transfer payments privately between themselves, an approach called “private collect”.

    Alternatively, this group can also use a service called “agency collect” to manage the transfer. Here, Services Australia collects the funds from the paying parent, then gives it to the agreed recipient.

    For parents using agency collect, payments can also be “garnisheed” – deducted from a paying parent’s salary.

    The system is failing the most vulnerable

    Government reports reveal that across the agency collect system, a staggering $1.7 billion is owed to a third of single-parent households, representing 475,000 children.

    The vast majority of this money is owed to women, two-thirds of whom have children in their care 86% or more of the time.

    The vast majority of single parents are single mothers.
    FotoDuets/Shutterstock

    Losing out on payments

    Across the child support system, 28% of paying parents fail to submit tax returns on time, reducing the accuracy of assessments.

    Centrelink’s Family Tax Benefit A (the first part of a two-part payment) is linked to child support, with every dollar of child support above a certain threshold reducing this payment by 50 cents.

    Concerningly, while reports indicate that 60% of single mothers receiving income support have experienced violence prior to separation, less than 15% receive exemptions from having to seek child support on the basis of this violence.

    By not applying for either child support or an exemption, single mothers could lose a significant portion of their Family Tax Benefit A payments.

    These sobering statistics are only part of the picture. Others remain invisible.

    There are another 500,000 or so children in the private collect system. Many of their situations are a mystery. Services Australia doesn’t know how much those women and children are owed, as they don’t trace this amount and assume that payments are fully compliant.

    What we uncovered

    Our mixed methods survey of 675 single mothers asked women about their experiences in the child support system from start to finish.

    We asked women how they made various decisions about child support, such as when to apply for it and when to change how it is collected and calculated.

    Many women avoid chasing what’s owed to them for fear of retaliation from an ex-partner.
    rigsbyphoto/Shutterstock

    78% of women reported experiencing some form of violence at the time of separation.

    But the research also showed how the nature of this abuse can change post-separation, when financial abuse becomes the primary mechanism.

    Just over half the women reported currently experiencing either emotional or psychological abuse, and 60% financial abuse.

    Women shared they were often fearful of retaliation from their ex-partner if they applied or changed child support payment arrangements.

    I was advised not to apply at the time because of the family violence and he had made threats to kill me so [it] was recommended I didn’t give him any reason to act on this so I went without child support for some period of time.

    Others had to ask for an exemption to apply.

    A Centrelink social worker changed my son’s father to unknown so I wouldn’t be murdered.

    The results show how the current system’s logic can force women to risk their financial welfare to ensure their own safety.

    I withdrew my application to avoid further conflict by telling CSA [Child Support Agency] there was a private agreement but there isn’t and he doesn’t pay anything.

    Often, women are paying back debts to Centrelink due to retrospective changes in their ex-partner’s income or level of care, at the same time they themselves are owed thousands of dollars in child support arrears.

    I’ve at times been living on as little at $72 a week of FTB [Family Tax Benefit] as my sole income to feed, house, clothe and educate myself and two children. I don’t understand how that is possible.

    How could we fix it?

    Based on our findings, our report makes four recommendations that could bring about meaningful improvements, give women choices to suit their family, and create a system that is safe.

    1. De-link family payments from child support.

    2. Co-design family violence processes in the child support system.

    3. Move all payment collections back to being handled by the tax office.

    4. Make all payment debts owed to and enforced by the Commonwealth.

    Any meaningful solution to this problem will need to include the voices of victim survivors, advocates, researchers and social support organisations to co-design an effective system.

    The authors would like to acknowledge the assistance of Terese Edwards, chief executive of Single Mother Families Australia (SMFA), in the preparation of the report.

    Terese and SMFA provided in-kind support in the form of survey design feedback and recruitment assistance. Terese also contributed to writing the report.

    Kay Cook receives funding from the Australian Research Council in the form of a Discovery Project grant. She is Secretary of The Australian Sociological Association (TASA) and a Member of the federal Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee. She is the PhD supervisor of Terese Edwards, CEO of Single Mother Families Australia.

    Adrienne Byrt is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow on a Discovery Project funded by the Australian Research Council.

    Ashlea Coen’s research assistant position for this research was funded by Swinburne University of Technology.

    Marg Rogers received funding from the Commonwealth-funded Manna Institute for her Postdoctoral Fellowship in 2022-24.

    – ref. Australia’s child support system can put single mothers at risk of poverty and financial abuse – https://theconversation.com/australias-child-support-system-can-put-single-mothers-at-risk-of-poverty-and-financial-abuse-240917

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: China removes block on Australian lobster, in last big bilateral trade breakthrough

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    China has removed the last significant trade barrier it imposed on Australia, with a timetable to resume full lobster imports by the end of the year.

    Anthony Albanese announced the breakthrough after a meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Vientiane, where the prime minister is attending the ASEAN-Australia summit.

    Albanese said the end of the barrier would be in time for the Chinese New Year. This would be welcomed by those in the lobster trade in places including Geraldton, Western Australia, and in South Australia and Tasmania, he said.

    The lobster decision means the Chinese over the last two years have removed trade barriers of nearly $20 billion slapped on Australia during the time of the former government when relations between the two countries went into a deep freeze. This followed various Australian decisions, including the call for an inquiry into the origins of COVID.

    Remaining impediments are now worth less than $500 million, with two red meat establishments still affected.

    The lobster trade was worth more than $700 million in 2019.

    More than 3000 people are employed in the lobster industry, 2000 of them in WA.

    “The reinstatement in normalised trade for all commodities is front and centre of the Government’s engagement strategy with China,” Albanese said.

    “It is in the interests of both our countries to continue this path of stabilising our relationship. A resumption in trade for all Australian commodities is an important part of this process.”

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. China removes block on Australian lobster, in last big bilateral trade breakthrough – https://theconversation.com/china-removes-block-on-australian-lobster-in-last-big-bilateral-trade-breakthrough-241012

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Grattan on Friday: Oil prices could be where the Middle East crisis collides with Australia’s cost-of-living crisis

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Angry, accusatory partisan exchanges over the Middle East war have dominated federal politics this week. But for most ordinary voters the issue remains “over there”.

    Apart from the minorities for whom it has an immediate impact – Jewish people frightened by antisemitism, the Muslim community, those with families in Lebanon and elsewhere – it’s a tragedy without tangible relevance to their day-to-day lives.

    On Thursday however, Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned the foreign crisis could feed directly into the domestic cost-of-living crisis, via the price of oil.

    Midway through this week, oil was trading 11% lower than it was a year ago, but 7% higher than a week-and-a-half ago, Chalmers told a news conference.

    Treasury estimates that if prices were 10% higher for an entire year, this would reduce Australia’s GDP by 0.1% and increase the consumer price index by 0.4 percentage points.

    Nothing is certain about the coming months but the potential implications are obvious. Consumers would feel the effects at the petrol pump of the higher oil prices.

    The Reserve Bank will also be watching the possible trajectory of oil prices, together with all the other indicators relevant to its decisions on interest rates. This is against the background of the government’s desperation for a rate cut (or two) before the election.

    Although an increase in fuel prices (hitting businesses as well as families) would not be the government’s fault, it would be blamed.

    According to Labor, at present there’s a disconnect between, on the one hand, the partisan political heat the Middle East war is generating and, on the other, the public’s lack of engagement with the issue.

    Voters not concentraing on the Middle East

    Labor sources say focus group research this week, done with swinging voters, found most people aren’t closely following Middle East events.

    Beyond that, they are generally satisfied with the government’s stand and don’t think the crisis is distracting it from the cost of living (which is separate from how they think the government is handling the cost of living).

    This accords with this week’s Essential poll, in which 56% said they were satisfied with the government’s response on the Israel-Gaza war. Another 30% thought the government had been too supportive of Israel; 14% thought it had been too harsh on Israel.

    Except among some of those directly invested, the Middle East crisis is not likely to be a vote changer.

    In the domestic political battle, Dutton is trying to use the conflict to paint Albanese as weak. That’s a long bow on the issue itself, although more generally the prime minister and his government have come to be seen as having lost their way.

    While Dutton is trying to define Albanese negatively, Albanese is attempting to make Dutton a bigger target.

    NBN sale a distraction

    Thus on Wednesday the prime minister, shortly before he jumped on his plane to attend the ASEAN-Australia summit in Laos, personally introduced legislation that would ensure the NBN remained in public hands.

    If the Coalition didn’t vote for the bill, that would show it would sell the NBN, Labor claimed. It was a crude attempt at scare politics, easily seen through. The Coalition is not suggesting it would sell the NBN and if it did, would most people care? Anyway, originally Labor planned for the NBN to be privatised. Dutton ridiculed the tactic.

    As we look to election year, the 2025 parliamentary sitting calendar came out this week. It has a fortnight sitting in February and pencils in a budget for March 25, which would set up a May poll. Of course this doesn’t rule out an earlier (March) election although Albanese has said more than once he plans a pre-election budget.

    Regardless, we are already in the election campaign. At caucus on Tuesday Albanese was, for the second time recently, talking about the second term agenda.

    Announcements like confetti

    Announcements are raining down like confetti especially related to cost-of-living issues. Supermarkets are being heavily targeted. Launching his merger reform legislation on Thursday, Chalmers said every supermarket merger would be screened, regardless of whether it fell under the new arrangements.

    Present polls are showing the most likely election result, to be delivered by sour voters, is a hung parliament with a minority Labor government.

    Albanese told caucus he was focused on winning majority government. Dutton knows that if the Coalition can’t win, the more crossbenchers it can force Labor to need to rely on, the more unstable a second-term Labor government would be.

    Both sides have a great deal of bedding-down to do before the actual campaign.

    Key items on Labor’s legislative agenda aren’t just not introduced, they are unseen – for instance, on gambling advertising, social media restrictions for young people, electoral funding.

    Major bills are stuck in the parliament – notably on housing, where the Greens may eventually do a deal but are stringing out the pain.

    On the other side, the Coalition has released minimal policy. On its controversial nuclear power plan, it has put out minimal details, in particular refusing to produce costings. It can’t hold back everything until the last moment.

    Will the campaign even matter?

    When the formal campaign comes, how much will it matter?

    There is the old saying “you can’t fatten the pig on market day”. In other words, the election result may be decided well before the actual campaign.

    What do the last three elections (2016, 2019, 2022) tell us about the importance of the formal campaign? In each case, the result was narrow, a matter of a handful of seats.

    In 2022, there was probably nothing Morrison could have done in the last weeks to salvage the situation – to use another farm metaphor, his goose was cooked. In the event, he ran a bad campaign.

    In 2016 prime minister Malcolm Turnbull just scraped home; Turnbull’s flawed campaigning maximised the number of seats he lost.

    In 2019, when it seemed Bill Shorten was almost certain to take Labor to victory, its defeat may have been sealed in the campaign itself, although its heavy policy load always put it in a precarious situation.

    In 2022 Albanese was judged a poor campaigner. Aware of this, Labor strategists will be doing everything to make sure he is fully prepared for “gotcha” questions (on which he faltered last time) and the other hazards that can arise spontaneously.

    Dutton’s forte is negativity, his natural style is the attack. But in those final weeks, more will be needed.

    One challenge in leaving policy releases late is that holes can slip through, inviting slip ups.

    Dutton has far from established himself as a rounded alternative prime minister. Indeed his current approach on the Middle East, completely lacking nuance, raises questions about how he would handle the complexities of foreign policy generally. It has not been reassuring.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Grattan on Friday: Oil prices could be where the Middle East crisis collides with Australia’s cost-of-living crisis – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-oil-prices-could-be-where-the-middle-east-crisis-collides-with-australias-cost-of-living-crisis-241002

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: There’s a new school funding bill in parliament. Will this end the funding wars?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew P. Sinclair, Lecturer and Researcher of Education Policy, School of Education, Curtin University

    On Thursday, federal Education Minister Jason Clare introduced a school funding bill to parliament.

    The bill aims to set a new “floor” for how much the federal government contributes towards public school funding in Australia.

    It would mean the Commonwealth has to contribute at least 20% of the schooling resource standard (how much funding a school needs to meet students’ educational needs) for public schools each year in all states and territories from 2025.

    Clare argues it will provide “certainty” to schools, but it also comes in the middle of a standoff between the federal government and some states over school funding policy.

    What’s in the bill?

    The bill proposes to change the current arrangement, under which the Commonwealth contributes 20% to the schooling resource standard of public schools. As the government explains:

    This means the 20 per cent will become the minimum, not the maximum, the Commonwealth contributes to public schools.

    The Albanese government says the bill will increase “transparency and accountability” and ensure funding cannot go backwards.

    But it cannot be certain of parliamentary support – Greens and independent senators are among those pushing for the government to provide more funding for public schools than is currently on the table.

    The bill will remove a 20% cap on federal funding for public schools.
    Bianca De Marchi/AAP, CC BY

    The bigger picture

    The bill also comes as the federal government is still trying to sign off new deals with some of the states and territories about their public school funding for next year.

    The current agreements will run out at the end of the year. While the new proposed arrangements would increase the federal contribution, it’s not by as much as some states want.

    So far, Clare has made agreements with Western Australia and Tasmania to increase the federal contribution from 20% to 22.5%. For the Northern Territory it will increase funding to a 40% contribution by 2029.

    So far, it has not signed deals with New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, and South Australia, which are pushing for a federal contribution of 25%.

    The Australian Capital Territory is also yet to sign, despite its public schools receiving at least 100% of the schooling resource standard (via both federal and its own funds) for several years now.

    Clare set a deadline of September 30 for the holdout states to sign on for the 2.5% funding boost, or risk losing an extra A$16 billion in funding. But that has passed without any compromise from either side.

    Progress and politics

    At the very least, the introduction of the bill to federal parliament is symbolically significant, particularly in light of the Commonwealth’s willingness to increase its contribution to the school resource standard of public schools.

    But politics is never far away in school funding policy. Critics could argue the bill is more of a box-ticking exercise, rather than substantive reform. Indeed, the change in wording to a 20% minimum was inevitable given the specifics of the funding agreements already signed with Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.

    Critics might also point out national school funding policy is currently a bit of a mess, with four of the five most populous Australian states ignoring the government’s new funding deal. And they could remind us this agreement has already been delayed by a year. The previous one expired at the end of 2023 and was extended for 12 months by the Albanese government.

    What happens to schools next year?

    The bill does nothing to bring the holdout states any closer to signing on to the new funding agreement.

    But this does not mean the federal government will withdraw its funding when school starts next year. Instead, the current funding arrangements will continue for another 12 months. This is why Clare says $16 billion in “additional investment” is on the table for public schools.

    With a federal election due next year, it is even possible there will be no resolution before Australians go to the polls. This continues the fight over the schooling resource standard funding for public schools, which has has been ongoing since the so-called Gonski Review was made public in 2012.

    Matthew P. Sinclair does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. There’s a new school funding bill in parliament. Will this end the funding wars? – https://theconversation.com/theres-a-new-school-funding-bill-in-parliament-will-this-end-the-funding-wars-240994

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What Israel and its neighbours want now as all-out war looms in the Middle East – podcast

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gemma Ware, Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

    The Middle East is perilously close to all-out war. In the year since the October 7 Hamas-led attacks on Israel, millions of people have been displaced from their homes in Gaza, Israel, the West Bank and now Lebanon, and tens of thousands killed.

    After Israel killed Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah, Iran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles against Israel on October 1. As the world waits to see how Israel will retaliate, Israel’s military continues to attack Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and in Beirut.

    In this episode of The Conversation Weekly podcast, we speak to two experts from the Middle East, Mireille Rebeiz and Amnon Aran, to get a sense of the strategic calculations being made by both Israel and its neighbours at this frightening moment for the region.

    Mireille Rebeiz is the chair of Middle East studies at Dickinson College in Pennsylvania in the US and an expert on Hezbollah. She says that since launching its manifesto in 1985 Hezbollah has always positioned itself “in opposition to the existence of the state of Israel”.

    It affirmed the dedication to the Palestinian cause. It affirmed its commitment to the Iranian revolution and the Shi’ite ideology.

    Rebeiz says Iran’s military goals are completely aligned with Hezbollah’s and traces them back to the US’s destabilisation of Iraq.

    When Iraq fell into a full chaos and war (it) allowed for Iran to meddle into Iraq and gave a big voice to the Shiite conservative voices.

    Then followed the 2011 Syrian civil war, in which Hezbollah stepped in to defend the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

    It’s a domino effect – it’s expansion from Iran to Iraq to Syria to Lebanon. And this is clearly visible in Iran’s military goals, which is ultimately the expansion of the Iranian ideology in the region. Honestly, at this point, I would say there is an attempt to hide behind the Palestinian cause to achieve that goal.

    Israel’s choices

    Amnon Aran is a professor of international relations at City St George’s, University of London, in the UK, and an expert in Israeli foreign policy. Aran says that for Israel, the past 12 months have been described as an “existential moment”, which has informed the war in the Gaza Strip and now Lebanon.

    When the question came about how to respond to this existential threat, it was very much from the prism of what I called elsewhere, a form of entrenchment, which really means that Israel only makes peace in exchange for peace. Any diplomatic arrangement has to be dependent upon and subordinate to a military advantageous balance of power towards Israel and that the Palestinians in the West Bank, and now in the Gaza Strip, would remain under Israeli occupation for the foreseeable future.

    Aran says there is fierce debate in Israel about what to do now. One side follows the line of thinking of the former Israeli prime minister, Nafthali Bennett, who took to X in early October to say that: “Israel now has its greatest opportunity in 50 years to change the face of the Middle East.” This camp is arguing that with Hezbollah weakened, this is the moment to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

    On the other side, Aran says, are those in the military establishment arguing against attacking Israel’s nuclear facilities and instead focus on weakening Hezbollah as much as possible. This camp’s reasoning is that:

    After a year of being in a prolonged and very difficult conflict, the next question is you are actually starting a war presumably on five or six fronts, including a very vast country, 90 million people, Iran, with a very rich history, and you are actually entering into a very new phase, which could become very prolonged.

    To hear the full interviews with Mireille Rebeiz and Amnon Aran, listen to The Conversation Weekly podcast.

    This episode of The Conversation Weekly was produced by Mend Mariwany. Sound design was by Michelle Macklem, and our theme music is by Neeta Sarl. Gemma Ware is the executive producer.

    You can find us on Instagram at theconversationdotcom or via email. You can also subscribe to The Conversation’s free daily email here.

    Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here.

    Amnon Aran does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment. Mireille Rebeiz is affiliated with the American Red Cross.

    – ref. What Israel and its neighbours want now as all-out war looms in the Middle East – podcast – https://theconversation.com/what-israel-and-its-neighbours-want-now-as-all-out-war-looms-in-the-middle-east-podcast-240952

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why isometric exercises are so good for you

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dan Gordon, Professor of Exercise Physiology, Anglia Ruskin University

    Isometric exercises involve contracting your muscles. Odua Images/ Shutterstock

    Exercise is great for improving heart health. But the thought of hitting the gym or going for a jog might put some people off from doing it. And, if you have a heart condition already, such dynamic exercises may not be safe to do.

    The good news is, you don’t necessarily need to do a vigorous workout to see heart benefits. You can even improve your heart health by holding still and trying really hard not to move.

    Isometric training, as this is called, is becoming increasingly popular as a way of reducing blood pressure and hypertension, and improving strength and muscle stability.

    Normally, to build strength and force, our muscles need to change length throughout a movement. Squats and bicep curls are good examples of exercises that cause the muscle to change length throughout the movement.

    But isometric training involves simply contracting your muscles, which generates force without needing to move your joints. The harder a muscle is contracted, the more forceful it becomes (and the more forceful a muscle is, the more powerfully we can perform a movement).

    If you add weight to an isometric exercise, it causes the muscle to contract even harder. A wall sit and a plank are examples of isometric contractions.

    Isometric exercises are associated with a high degree of “neural recruitment”, because of the need to maintain the contraction. This means these exercises are good at engaging specialised neurons in our brain and spinal cord, which play an important role in all the movements we do – both voluntary and involuntary. The greater this level of neural activation, the more muscle fibres are recruited – and the more force generated. As a result, this can lead to strength gains.

    Isometric exercises have long been of interest to strength and power athletes as a means of preparing their muscles to generate high forces by activating them. But research also shows isometric exercises are beneficial for other areas of our health – including reducing hypertension and promoting better blood flow.

    There are a couple reasons why isometric exercises are so good for the heart.

    When a muscle is contracted, it expands its size. This causes it to compress the blood vessels supplying this muscle, reducing blood flow and raising the blood pressure in our arteries – a mechanism known as the “pressor reflex”.

    Then, once the contraction is relaxed, a sudden surge of blood flows into the blood vessels and muscle. This influx of blood brings more oxygen and (crucially) nitric oxide into the blood vessels – causing them to widen. This in turn reduces blood pressure. Over time, this action will reduce stiffness of the arteries, which may lower blood pressure.

    Over time, isometric exercises may help lower blood pressure.
    Andrey_Popov/ Shutterstock

    When blood flow is reduced during an isometric movement, it also reduces the amount of available oxygen that cells need to function. This triggers the release of metabolites, such as hydrogen ions and lactate, which stimulate the sympathetic nervous system – which controls our “fight of flight” response. In the short term, this leads to an increase in blood pressure.

    But when an isometric exercise is done repeatedly over many weeks, there’s a reduction in sympathetic nervous system activity. This means blood pressure is lowered and there’s less strain on the cardiovascular system – which makes these exercises good for the heart.

    Isometric exercises may be even more beneficial for heart health than other types of cardiovascular exercise. A study which compared the benefits of isometric exercise versus high-intensity interval training found isometrics led to significantly greater reductions in resting blood pressure over the study period of between two and 12 weeks.

    How to use isometric exercise

    If you want to use isometric training to reduce blood pressure, it’s recommended that you should do any isometric contraction for two minutes at around 30-50% of your maximum effort. This is enough to trigger physiological improvements.

    You can start by doing this four times a day, three-to-five times per week – focusing on the same exercise. As you progress, you can start to vary the exercises you do, add weights to the exercise, or add in more than one isometric exercise.

    Some good isometric exercises to begin with include a static squat, a wall sit or a plank. Even during these small bouts of exercise, your heart rate, breathing and arterial pressure will all increase – the same responses that occur during more conventional whole-body exercises, such as cycling and running.

    The beneficial improvements in blood pressure start to manifest around 4-10 weeks after starting isometric training – though this depends on a person’s health and fitness levels when starting out.

    Isometric training appears to be a simple, low-intensity mode of exercise that offers big benefits for cardiovascular health – all while requiring little time commitment compared with other workouts.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why isometric exercises are so good for you – https://theconversation.com/why-isometric-exercises-are-so-good-for-you-239543

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Telegram: why the app is allowed when other social media is censored in Russia

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Olga Logunova, Research Associate, King’s Russia Institute, King’s College London

    Telegram’s founder Pavel Durov has confirmed that the messaging app, which is widely used in Russia, has made several changes related to user privacy.

    Durov, who was arrested in France in August in connection with a range of crimes as well as refusal to communicate information or documents, has made some alterations that address user safety and user privacy.

    Telegram says the changes are expected to also reduce criminal activity on the app. But users are concerned that the changes make the app more compliant with legal requests from authorities.

    While Durov’s political and legal tussle continues in the EU, at home in Russia Telegram remains one of the most influential media platforms. It is one of the only places where both opposition and official voices coexist.

    It is particularly popular with Russians between the ages of 12 and 24, with around 85% of them using Telegram. Around 25 of its 30 most popular channels are news and politics related. Telegram is also popular for calls and messaging.

    The platform is a vital space for the independent journalism and activism that survives in Russia. Independent media outlets and commentators covering Russian affairs and using Telegram include Meduza (1.3 million subscribers), TV Rain (500,000 subscribers) and Mediazona. All are using Telegram to reach the public but are operating from outside Russia’s borders.

    Pro-government channels also attract big audiences on Telegram, often with even larger followings than the independent outlets mentioned above. The most popular Telegram channels are Ria Novosti with 3.3 million subscribers, Readovka with 2.6 million subscribers, and Solovyov Live (1.3 million subscribers), along with several others promoting pro-government lines and supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine.

    Additionally, alternative voices such as Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a former oligarch and prominent Kremlin critic, and Ekaterina Shulman, a respected political scientist and commentator, are steadily gaining audiences. Both have been labelled as foreign agents or extremists in Russia.

    Where do Russians get news?

    In the past decade, Russia’s media landscape has undergone significant censorship due to increasing state control. Radio stations have closed down and many journalists have left the country to be able to report.

    Russian media usage

    Traditional media sources, such as television, continue to have a massive audience. Television has a monthly reach of 98%, while radio has a monthly reach of 79%. (Reach is the total number of different people or households exposed, at least once, to a medium during a given period).

    Both remain significant in today’s Russia. While television remains a primary news source for many Russians, the internet is used by 84% of people daily.

    Since 2012, the state has progressively tightened control over political information. People and organisations will self-censor, and there is legislation penalising social media reposts and other forms of dissent. These laws claim to be addressing users who “discredit the armed forces” or “spread fake news”, but are actually aimed at cracking down on dissent.

    Most viewed Telegram channels in Russia during July 2024

    As of 2024, over 2,000 administrative cases and more than 273 criminal cases have been initiated under these laws. Individuals and organisations critical of the official Kremlin narrative have been fined, had their assets confiscated and been imprisoned.



    Read more:
    Ukraine recap: Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling becomes more ominous

    Another government method used to control online discussion includes slowing down or blocking social media platforms. The state blocked major western platforms Facebook, Instagram and Twitter in March 2022, leading millions of Russian users to migrate to Telegram.

    Content creators followed en masse, transforming Telegram into a vital hub for news and political debate. Alternatives to Telegram in Russia include state-controlled domestic networks like VKontakte (VK) and Odnoklassniki, which have strong ties to figures close to the Kremlin.

    Why is Telegram allowed?

    The use of Telegram for propaganda, influencing public opinion, and promoting the positions of the state and Putin could be one of the reasons why Telegram has not faced the same restrictions as other platforms.

    Another reason for its popularity is the platform’s ease of use as a messaging app, including for state organisations. This makes it less of a direct threat to state control over public opinion, while still serving as a crucial tool for those seeking alternative sources of information.

    Its appeal to the Russian government is strengthened by the fact that Telegram is not owned by global (western) companies such as Meta, which owns WhatsApp (also popular in Russia). Additionally, issues surrounding legally questionable content, such as the near-official tolerance of digital piracy, have long been controversial in Russia.

    Telegram’s moderation policies have often been associated with a less regulated approach to content, which has contributed to its popularity in Russia. These new changes may make ordinary Russians worry more about whether what they say on the app is safe from the state’s prying eyes.

    The platform’s prominence in Russian public life is undeniable, but so too are the challenges it faces. How Telegram and its leadership navigate the coming years will have profound implications, not just for the platform, but for broader public debate in Russia.

    Durov’s arrest underscores the growing pressure on Telegram, from some quarters, and reflects a critical juncture for platform leaders navigating state intervention. But for Russian people looking for a space where they can exchange news and views, it remains one of most free platforms they can still access.

    Olga Logunova does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Telegram: why the app is allowed when other social media is censored in Russia – https://theconversation.com/telegram-why-the-app-is-allowed-when-other-social-media-is-censored-in-russia-238261

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How 19th-century French novelist Balzac mastered the multiverse long before Marvel

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Harsh Trivedi, Associate Teacher, School of Languages and Cultures, University of Sheffield

    The multiverse has become an essential part of pop culture. The Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) brought this shared universe style of storytelling to global prominence with Iron Man (2008), where a post-credit scene hinted at a larger interconnected universe.

    Over time, this expanded into a cinematic multiverse, particularly with the 2016 film Doctor Strange. Films like Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) and Doctor Strange: Multiverse of Madness (2022) introduced audiences to parallel universes where different versions of the same character coexist. The multiverse has also been embraced by other films, like Everything Everywhere All At Once (2022), which won multiple Academy Awards and Stree 2, which became the highest-grossing Bollywood film of all time in September 2024.

    This style of storytelling has deep literary roots. I believe the first person to master the fictional multiverse was the 19th-century French novelist, Honoré de Balzac, in his monumental work La Comédie Humaine (The Human Comedy, 1829-1847).



    Read more:
    Multiverse films take characters to increasingly dark places – as Robert Downey Jr’s Doctor Doom casting shows

    In the 1920s, German physicist Werner Heisenberg challenged Newtonian physics, positing that particles can simultaneously occupy multiple states – he called this the Uncertainty Principle. Later, in the 1950s, American physicist Hugh Everett proposed the Many Worlds Interpretation, suggesting that all possible outcomes of a quantum event occur, each in a separate parallel universe.

    While this theory was developed in physics, the term “multiverse” was introduced into literature by British science fiction writer Michael Moorcock. In The Eternal Champion (1970), he envisioned characters existing in parallel worlds with multiple avatars.

    Honoré de Balzac, by Louis Boulanger (1836).
    Wikimedia., CC BY-SA

    However, Balzac’s La Comédie Humaine, written over a century earlier, already contained the seeds of multiverse storytelling. Comprising nearly 100 novels and short stories, it features thousands of characters who reappear across different works, creating a shared universe that allows for complex narrative interconnections.

    Balzac’s innovation was not merely in these recurring characters, but in the thematic and conceptual unity he established across his fictional universe.

    This cohesion is built through his “typology” of characters. Balzac’s “types” are characters who embody universal traits while retaining their individual personalities – making them instantly recognisable across different stories.

    In his preface to Une Ténébreuse Affaire (An Historical Mystery, 1841), Balzac defends his use of types: “A type … is a character who summarises in himself certain characteristic traits of all those who more or less resemble him; he is the model of the genre.”

    Hungarian philosopher Georg Lukács expanded on this idea, stating that Balzac’s types represent a synthesis of the individual and the universal. These characters are universal enough to represent broader societal forces, while remaining distinct individuals within their own narratives.

    The moment Andrew Garfield’s Spider-Man saves the love interest of Tom Holland’s Spider-Man, MJ.

    This balance between the universal and individual is a cornerstone of multiverse storytelling. For instance, the climax of Spider-Man: No Way Home highlights the interplay between the universal and individual aspects of characters, as seen when three versions of Spider-Man (Toby Maguire, Andrew Garfield, Tom Holland) from parallel universes unite. Garfield’s Spider-Man finds redemption by saving MJ (Holland’s Spider-Man’s love interest), a moment that mirrors his own tragic loss of Gwen – emphasising both their shared trauma and divergent fates.

    In much the same way, Balzac’s recurring characters evolve across La Comédie Humaine, reflecting different facets of their personalities and situations. Although not planned as a shared universe from the beginning – Balzac retrofitted earlier works to fit this framework – the coherence of his fictional world is remarkable.

    Mobilising the multiverse

    The French philosopher Alain wrote that Balzac’s literary universe can sometimes feel like a “crossroads where characters from La Comédie Humaine meet, greet each other, and pass”. This creates a sense of disjointedness, due to its lack of strict chronological order, allowing readers to enter Balzac’s universe from any of the nearly 100 novels or short stories.

    Balzac addressed these concerns in his prefaces. He engaged in a meta-discourse similar to the post-credit scenes in modern Marvel films, where future plot-lines and character arcs are hinted at.

    Balzac’s use of prefaces as a space to preempt criticism and engage with his readers anticipates the dialogue between creators and fans in the MCU. Just as Marvel balances creative vision with fan demands, Balzac used his prefaces to address concerns from his readers about the trajectories of beloved characters.

    One of many such instances occurs in the preface to Pierrette (1840), where Balzac reveals that Maxime de Trailles, a notorious bachelor who ruins many women’s lives in La Comédie Humaine, is finally getting married. Despite criticisms from readers who wanted De Trailles to meet a tragic and painful end, Balzac defends his decision, humorously remarking: “What do you want me to do? That devil Maxime is in good health.”

    Both Balzac and Marvel deal with the challenge of catering to a wide and diverse audience. The multiverse model, however, offers a solution to the limitations of a shared universe. While Balzac struggled with the impossibility of creating a completely coherent world – La Comédie Humaine was unfinished at his death – the multiverse allows modern creators to explore multiple realities and satisfy diverse audience expectations without making irreversible narrative choices.

    In 2019, Marvel faced a backlash to the film Captain Marvel from conservative fans, for casting a female actor in a lead role – and then, in 2022, another backlash for casting a Muslim Pakistani actress as Ms. Marvel. Rather than directly addressing the criticism, which could have alienated both conservative and liberal audiences, Marvel used the multiverse to cater to a wide range of expectations.

    Across the Spider-Verse (2023) is a prime example. This animated film features over 600 versions of Spider-Man, from the “traditional” white Spider-Man to black, Indian and even animal versions of the character (notably Peter “Porker”, the Spider-Pig). In doing so, Marvel catered to diverse global markets without committing to a single interpretation.

    Balzac’s La Comédie Humaine laid the groundwork for modern multiverse storytelling. This approach allowed him to explore different dimensions of his characters across various stories. His visionary storytelling anticipated the fluidity and complexity found in today’s shared cinematic universes, demonstrating his enduring influence on narrative structures.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Harsh Trivedi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How 19th-century French novelist Balzac mastered the multiverse long before Marvel – https://theconversation.com/how-19th-century-french-novelist-balzac-mastered-the-multiverse-long-before-marvel-239764

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to recognise burnout – and what to do if you’re affected

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michael Koch, Reader in Human Resource Management & Organisational Behaviour, Brunel University London

    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    Emily, a finance manager, has been working 60-hour weeks for several months to meet deadlines. She starts feeling constantly exhausted, both physically and mentally. Work that she once found engaging now seems overwhelming, and she’s easily irritated with her colleagues. Despite putting in more hours, her productivity declines. Eventually, she starts calling in sick frequently and considers quitting her job, feeling like she just can’t keep going any more.

    Emily is a victim of burnout. For 2024, World Mental Health Day is focused on workplace health, with the aim of helping people like Emily recognise when work is affecting their wellbeing, so that they can take steps to address it.

    Burnout happens when the demands of a job are high for a long time, and are not offset by sufficient mental and physical resources. In this situation, people are no longer able to recover from their demanding job. Their energy is gradually drained, resulting in a state of mental exhaustion, a cynical and negative attitude towards their work, as well as a declining performance.

    In other words, people affected by burnout are neither able nor willing to fully function in their job. Burnout can occur in any job, but is most likely in workplaces where demands are high and resources low. It is a widespread phenomenon.

    A report by the charity Mental Health UK asserts that the country is on the verge of becoming a burnt-out nation, with 91% of the working adults surveyed reporting high or extreme levels of pressure and stress at some point in the past year.

    According to the same report, 20% of workers in the UK even took time off work due to poor mental health caused by stress last year.

    You don’t have to work in a desk job to be at risk of burnout.
    ultramansk/Shutterstock

    Research has consistently shown that the primary causes of burnout are excessive and prolonged job demands. This includes, for example, high workloads, job insecurity, role ambiguity, conflict, stress or stressful events, and work pressure.

    Burnout has severe consequences, most of all for people affected by it. Burnout impacts people differently, but even mild cases – which could linger for several years – can lead to a multitude of negative health outcomes. This includes work-related anxiety and depression, increased risk of cardiovascular diseases, Type 2 diabetes, insomnia, headaches and perhaps most alarmingly, increased mortality.

    People with mild cases of burnout are also at risk of developing more severe burnout that will keep them off work sick for long periods.

    Burnout is also worrying for organisations as it has a negative impact on creativity, leads to higher employee turnover, increased absenteeism and poor job performance.

    The symptoms of burnout differ from one person to another, and sometimes people might not even fully realise they’re burnt out until they are no longer just tired but too exhausted to function.

    People who experience burnout are drained of energy and may be overwhelmed even by
    small tasks. They distance themselves from their work, struggle with self doubt and develop cynical, negative attitudes regarding their job or the people they work for.

    When looking for symptoms of burnout, it might help to ask yourself questions like: Do you mostly talk about your work in a negative way? Do you tend to think less about your work and do your job almost mechanically? Do you sometimes feel sickened by your work tasks? Are there days when you feel tired before you arrive at work? Do you often feel emotionally drained during your work? Do you usually feel worn out and weary after your work?

    Burnout recovery and prevention needs to help minimise the job demands which cause
    exhaustion and disengagement. For example, reducing workload and work pressure, and establishing clear boundaries between life and work can help to reduce stressful job demands.

    Job resources can also help to mitigate the impact of job demands. This includes things like job control, having a variety of tasks, social support, performance feedback, opportunities for professional development and the quality of a worker’s relationship with their supervisor.

    When people have an abundance of these resources, the link between the demands of the job and burnout is greatly reduced because they help workers to cope better.

    Recovery is possible

    Opportunities for recovery from work-related stress are an especially important job resource in this context. Recovery means that employees have non-work time where they can relax and detach themselves from work. This may include leisure activities that allow people to simply experience pleasure without competitive pressures.

    Research has also shown that job crafting is an effective burnout intervention. Job crafting means that employees make small adjustments to both their job demands and resources. Employees can decrease their job demands by taking steps to minimise the emotionally, mentally or physically demanding job aspects or by reducing their workload.

    For example, this might involve looking for a calmer place to work. They can also increase job resources by engaging in professional development, gaining more autonomy at work and by asking others for support, feedback and advice. Over time, engaging in job crafting will lead to lower burnout.

    Organisations also need to play their part to reduce burnout. A range of intervention strategies such as stress management training, mindfulness-based approaches or policies that allow employees to disconnect from work outside of normal working hours are useful tools for combating burnout in an organisation.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How to recognise burnout – and what to do if you’re affected – https://theconversation.com/how-to-recognise-burnout-and-what-to-do-if-youre-affected-240747

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How a subfield of physics led to breakthroughs in AI – and from there to this year’s Nobel Prize

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Veera Sundararaghavan, Professor of Aerospace Engineering, University of Michigan

    Neural networks have their roots in statistical mechanics. BlackJack3D/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    John J. Hopfield and Geoffrey E. Hinton received the Nobel Prize in physics on Oct. 8, 2024, for their research on machine learning algorithms and neural networks that help computers learn. Their work has been fundamental in developing neural network theories that underpin generative artificial intelligence.

    A neural network is a computational model consisting of layers of interconnected neurons. Like the neurons in your brain, these neurons process and send along a piece of information. Each neural layer receives a piece of data, processes it and passes the result to the next layer. By the end of the sequence, the network has processed and refined the data into something more useful.

    While it might seem surprising that Hopfield and Hinton received the physics prize for their contributions to neural networks, used in computer science, their work is deeply rooted in the principles of physics, particularly a subfield called statistical mechanics.

    As a computational materials scientist, I was excited to see this area of research recognized with the prize. Hopfield and Hinton’s work has allowed my colleagues and me to study a process called generative learning for materials sciences, a method that is behind many popular technologies like ChatGPT.

    What is statistical mechanics?

    Statistical mechanics is a branch of physics that uses statistical methods to explain the behavior of systems made up of a large number of particles.

    Instead of focusing on individual particles, researchers using statistical mechanics look at the collective behavior of many particles. Seeing how they all act together helps researchers understand the system’s large-scale macroscopic properties like temperature, pressure and magnetization.

    For example, physicist Ernst Ising developed a statistical mechanics model for magnetism in the 1920s. Ising imagined magnetism as the collective behavior of atomic spins interacting with their neighbors.

    In Ising’s model, there are higher and lower energy states for the system, and the material is more likely to exist in the lowest energy state.

    One key idea in statistical mechanics is the Boltzmann distribution, which quantifies how likely a given state is. This distribution describes the probability of a system being in a particular state – like solid, liquid or gas – based on its energy and temperature.

    Ising exactly predicted the phase transition of a magnet using the Boltzmann distribution. He figured out the temperature at which the material changed from being magnetic to nonmagnetic.

    Phase changes happen at predictable temperatures. Ice melts to water at a specific temperature because the Boltzmann distribution predicts that when it gets warm, the water molecules are more likely to take on a disordered – or liquid – state.

    Statistical mechanics tells researchers about the properties of a larger system, and how individual objects in that system act collectively.

    In materials, atoms arrange themselves into specific crystal structures that use the lowest amount of energy. When it’s cold, water molecules freeze into ice crystals with low energy states.

    Similarly, in biology, proteins fold into low energy shapes, which allow them to function as specific antibodies – like a lock and key – targeting a virus.

    Neural networks and statistical mechanics

    Fundamentally, all neural networks work on a similar principle – to minimize energy. Neural networks use this principle to solve computing problems.

    For example, imagine an image made up of pixels where you only can see a part of the picture. Some pixels are visible, while the rest are hidden. To determine what the image is, you consider all possible ways the hidden pixels could fit together with the visible pieces. From there, you would choose from among what statistical mechanics would say are the most likely states out of all the possible options.

    In statistical mechanics, researchers try to find the most stable physical structure of a material. Neural networks use the same principle to solve complex computing problems.
    Veera Sundararaghavan

    Hopfield and Hinton developed a theory for neural networks based on the idea of statistical mechanics. Just like Ising before them, who modeled the collective interaction of atomic spins to solve the photo problem with a neural network, Hopfield and Hinton imagined collective interactions of pixels. They represented these pixels as neurons.

    Just as in statistical physics, the energy of an image refers to how likely a particular configuration of pixels is. A Hopfield network would solve this problem by finding the lowest energy arrangements of hidden pixels.

    However, unlike in statistical mechanics – where the energy is determined by known atomic interactions – neural networks learn these energies from data.

    Hinton popularized the development of a technique called backpropagation. This technique helps the model figure out the interaction energies between these neurons, and this algorithm underpins much of modern AI learning.

    The Boltzmann machine

    Building upon Hopfield’s work, Hinton imagined another neural network, called the Boltzmann machine. It consists of visible neurons, which we can observe, and hidden neurons, which help the network learn complex patterns.

    In a Boltzmann machine, you can determine the probability that the picture looks a certain way. To figure out this probability, you can sum up all the possible states the hidden pixels could be in. This gives you the total probability of the visible pixels being in a specific arrangement.

    My group has worked on implementing Boltzmann machines in quantum computers for generative learning.

    In generative learning, the network learns to generate new data samples that resemble the data the researchers fed the network to train it. For example, it might generate new images of handwritten numbers after being trained on similar images. The network can generate these by sampling from the learned probability distribution.

    Generative learning underpins modern AI – it’s what allows the generation of AI art, videos and text.

    Hopfield and Hinton have significantly influenced AI research by leveraging tools from statistical physics. Their work draws parallels between how nature determines the physical states of a material and how neural networks predict the likelihood of solutions to complex computer science problems.

    Veera Sundararaghavan receives external funding for research unrelated to the content of this article.

    – ref. How a subfield of physics led to breakthroughs in AI – and from there to this year’s Nobel Prize – https://theconversation.com/how-a-subfield-of-physics-led-to-breakthroughs-in-ai-and-from-there-to-this-years-nobel-prize-240871

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Blitz of political attack ads in Pennsylvania and other swing states may be doing candidates and voters more harm than good

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Heather LaMarre, Associate Professor of Media and Communication, Temple University

    Nearly $11 billion is projected to be spent on political advertising in the 2024 fall election season. PM Images/DigitalVision Collection via Getty Images

    For Pennsylvania residents like me, there is no escape from the record-breaking number of political attack ads disrupting our favorite shows and filling our social media feeds.

    A projected US$10.7 billion is being spent nationwide – but particularly in battleground states – on political ads this election season.

    For those who are feeling election fatigue and just want to stream in peace: Buckle in, because it’s about to get worse.

    As of late August 2024, over $1.7 billion in political ads had been reserved nationwide to run between Labor Day and Election Day. Over $400 million of that is just for presidential election ads in seven key battleground states.

    With Pennsylvania widely considered the most decisive state in the 2024 presidential election, it may be no surprise that the Keystone State has the most presidential ad reservations, totaling $137 million.

    And the Philadelphia market alone is the top market in the country, with $125 million in ad reservations. Democrats are spending about 25% more than Republicans on presidential ads in Philly.

    As a political communication expert and professor of media and social influence who lives in Philadelphia, I am often asked: “Why are there so many political ads, why are they so negative, and more importantly, how do we make it stop?”

    I’ll answer the first two below. For the last, the truth is we don’t.

    A billboard in Philadelphia purchased by the Trump campaign.
    Selcuk Acar/Anadolu via Getty Images

    Voters feel exhausted, angry, stressed

    If campaigns are spending all this money on political attack ads, they must work, right? Surely they sway at least undecided voters?

    In a word: no. Research suggests deluges of negative political advertising do little to change voters’ minds.

    They can even backfire on candidates.

    When voters perceive ads as unfair or manipulative, they are less likely to vote for the candidate or party producing the ads. And when subjected to repeated unwanted exposure to political ads, they can experience “psychological reactance” and behave opposite of what the ads intended.

    Some studies also suggest that negative ads create election stress, which can reduce voter turnout among the less politically interested.

    In a 2023 Pew Research Center survey, 65% of U.S. adults reported that they always or often feel “exhausted” when they think about U.S. politics. More than half reported that they always or often feel “angry” with U.S. politics.

    More concerning, research suggests our elections are harming voters’ mental health. This is marked by lost sleep, increased anxiety and chronic stress.

    ‘Daisy’ and the birth of ad wars

    Historically, political advertising was considered an effective tool for educating voters, building momentum and engaging the politically uninterested.

    Although the research is mixed, past studies have shown that advertising increased election turnout and influenced voter behavior.

    The infamous 1964 “Daisy” ad run by President Lyndon Johnson’s campaign shocked audiences with the potential horrors of nuclear war. While the ad never mentioned Johnson’s opponent, Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater, it is largely credited as a turning point in presidential political advertising, ushering in an era of political attack ads.

    LBJ’s “Daisy” ad played on American’s Cold War fears.

    However, political ad wars have been a feature of U.S. presidential elections since the 1800s, with attack ads on TV starting in the early 1950s.

    But why the constant barrage now?

    Citizens United unleashes flood of dark money

    Political ad spending has monumentally increased over the past several election cycles, and hit the billions after the landmark 2010 Citizens United case.

    In that ruling, the Supreme Court decided that limiting spending from corporations or outside groups violated those groups’ First Amendment right to free speech. Prior to Citizens United, corporations and other groups like nonprofits and labor unions were subject to prohibitions on campaign donations. Individual campaign contribution limits, which currently stand at $3,300 per candidate per election, kept spending relatively level across the electorate.

    Following the ruling, however, the influx of corporate and outside money completely changed the campaign finance landscape.

    In 2010, political ad spending reached $3.3 billion – an 11% increase from the 2008 election that took place pre-Citizens United. A decade later, total spending on political ads soared to $9 billion in the 2020 election.

    Significant portions of this spending come from political action committees that are not bound by traditional campaign contribution limits as long as they do not donate the money directly to a candidate or coordinate with a candidate’s campaign.

    These groups, known as super PACs, can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money from undisclosed donors. While super PACs have to disclose identities of people who donate over $200 in a year, donors can use shell companies to hide their identities.

    This web of secret money, known as dark money, exceeded $1 billion in 2020.

    During the 2024 election cycle, over $2.4 billion has been raised by super PACs. This is where much of the funding for the political ad barrage that voters experience in the weeks leading up to the election comes from.

    But why are the ads so negative?

    Attack ads lose appeal

    These days, most political ads are negative, according to a 2020 Pew Research Center study.

    For example, in the weeks following President Joe Biden leaving the race, 95% of pro-Trump ads focused on attacking Vice President Kamala Harris rather than promoting policy, according to the Wesleyan Media Project, which tracks political advertising.

    Americans are a deeply divided electorate. Political violence is on the rise, misinformation floods the system, and trust in media is at an all-time low.

    Research shows that fear-based negative messaging leads to stress and anxiety, elicits more bias and entrenches attitudes.

    Knowing this, it is reasonable to ask why campaigns continue down the path of negative advertising. The answer likely rests in old beliefs.

    Prior studies have shown that people pay closer attention to negative information than to positive information. And infamous ad effects like Johnson’s easy win after the airing of the Daisy ad contribute to the commonly held belief that negative ads still win elections.

    But the media environment has changed drastically, and voters are growing resentful.

    Voters resent microtargeting

    Unlike traditional voter segmentation where an entire group of voters would receive similar messages, campaigns now use data analytics to microtarget messages for specific voters.

    Microtargeting enlists the help of social monitoring companies to identify voters’ psychometric data – their hopes, fears, likes, dislikes and so on – so that campaigns can finely tune messages to target them on social media.

    Not only are these microtargeted messages manipulative, but they can be an unwelcome disruption and invasion of privacy, especially among the politically uninterested.

    A 2020 Pew survey found that over half of voters believe tech companies should not allow political ads on social media. Three-quarters oppose campaigns using their personal data to target them with political ads.

    Some evidence suggests that political microtargeting even reduces citizens’ trust in democracy.

    After record-breaking amounts of advertising this election cycle, the latest polls remain very tight, and most are within the margin of error. The reality is that Americans are already divided and steadfast in their voting decisions, and it is difficult to change entrenched political attitudes.

    Put simply, the political ad barrage coupled with microtargeting strategies is not an effective campaign strategy that sways voters’ minds. Meanwhile, there is growing evidence that this level of negativity is harming the electorate and undermining trust in democracy.

    Heather LaMarre does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Blitz of political attack ads in Pennsylvania and other swing states may be doing candidates and voters more harm than good – https://theconversation.com/blitz-of-political-attack-ads-in-pennsylvania-and-other-swing-states-may-be-doing-candidates-and-voters-more-harm-than-good-239034

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Misspoke: The long and winding road to becoming a political weasel word

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Valerie M. Fridland, Professor of Linguistics, University of Nevada, Reno

    Democratic candidate Tim Walz, during the vice presidential debate in which he said he ‘misspoke’ about being in Hong Kong during Tiananmen Square protests. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

    During the Sept. 24, 2024, debate, Democratic vice presidential hopeful Tim Walz said he “misspoke” when asked to clarify his story of being in Hong Kong during the Tiananmen Square crackdown in June 1989.

    To many, Walz’s use of the word misspoke came across as an attempt to weasel out of what was at best an embellishment and at worst an outright lie.

    The word misspoke has certainly long been used to politically backpedal after verbal inaccuracies or blunders, as Ronald Reagan learned in 1981 after he said that Syrian surface-to-air missiles placed in Lebanon were “offensive weapons,” when they were in fact defensive weapons. Both Presidents Bill Clinton and the much “misunderestimated” George W. Bush likewise were deemed to have misspoken after making mistakes, big and small.

    For instance, a spokesperson for Clinton claimed he had misspoken when the then-president said that North Korea would not be allowed to develop a nuclear bomb – after there was reason to believe they had already developed them. During George W. Bush’s term in office, verbal errors were so common they earned a nickname of their own: “Bushisms.”

    But misspoke’s extension to factual fabrication is one step further down the semantic road. In using it in this way, Walz joined other “misspoken” politicians, such as Hillary Clinton, who used it after falsely recollecting having landed in Bosnia under sniper fire.

    As a sociolinguist who writes about how language changes over time, misspoke’s euphemistic recasting of lying as an inadvertent mistake calls for deeper linguistic scrutiny.

    Tim Walz, being pressed on a statement he made and whether it was true, during the vice presidential debate.

    From mumble to mea culpa

    To understand how and why words morph like this, linguists like to trace them to their very beginnings.

    According to the Oxford English Dictionary, “misspeaking” is quite old in the history of English, appearing as “missprecon” in a Northumbrian text dating before the 11th century. Its original sense was one of “to grumble” or “to mumble,” a meaning now obsolete.

    But after the 11th century, its meaning shifted from inarticulateness to that of speaking amiss or disparagingly, often mentioned in reference to saying something improper or upsetting. Chaucer makes use of this sense in the “Miller’s Tale”: “And therfore if that I mysspeke or seye, Wyte it the ale of Southwerk, I you preye,” where the Miller handily blames a bit too much ale for whatever impropriety might fall from his mouth.

    Around the time Chaucer was composing “The Canterbury Tales” in the late 14th century, the word “misspeak” branched off down yet another semantic path, taking on the meaning of “to speak incorrectly or misleadingly.” It is this sense that gave birth to the modern political mea culpa used when backtracking on a misleading prior statement, such as by Sen. John McCain after he claimed President Barack Obama was directly responsible for terrorist attacks on Americans.

    Expanding meaning

    These shifts in the meaning of a word over time fall under what linguists refer to as “semantic broadening.” Semantic broadening, which means expansion of a word’s meaning, is incredibly common, generally occurring when a word becomes used more frequently and across more situations. As a result, its core sense can expand to take on supplemental or tangential meanings.

    Semantic shift like this is constantly at work, pushing and pulling senses in related but new directions to stay relevant to the needs of speakers.

    The word “soon,” for instance, at first carried a meaning of “immediately,” but human nature being what it is, its meaning began to creep in the direction of “as immediately as possible” as people took their merry time.

    Some new meanings, such as the nonliteral use of “literally” and Walz’s use of “misspeak,” are sites of contest, with multiple meanings at play.

    The semantic broadening of misspeaking to cover not just misleading but knowingly false information didn’t start with Walz, nor did it begin with Clinton. In fact, this politically expedient expansion seems to go back at least to the Nixon administration.

    There’s been a lot of misspeaking by politicians over the years, as these stories show.
    The Guardian US; The Hill; Wall Street Journal; Politico; Washington Post.

    ‘I misspoke myself’

    In 1973, Nixon and his advisers were called to task in a Time article accusing them of a tendency to “make flat statements one day, and the next day reverse field with the simple phrase, ‘I misspoke myself.’” Given the Watergate scandal, it’s safe to say that misspoke as used by his administration had already shifted into deceptive speech territory.

    Perhaps misspeaking’s semantic slippery slope started even further back, when the prefix “mis,” with its sense of “badly,” combined with “speaking.”

    Consider other potentially weaselly words that are also formed by “mis” prefixation: misunderstood, misinterpret, mishear, mistake. These are all examples of words, like misspeak, that can and have been used by politicians to avoid taking responsibility for the false or “misleading” things they say.

    Even if led astray by its prefix, from a linguistic perspective, the broadening of misspeak to cover not just incorrect but fabricated statements turns out to be not such a surprising development given the tendency of words to take on new senses over time, particularly in the world of political doublespeak.

    The bigger surprise might be how this new meaning translates with voters, but that’s one surprise that will have to wait for the ballot box.

    Valerie M. Fridland does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Misspoke: The long and winding road to becoming a political weasel word – https://theconversation.com/misspoke-the-long-and-winding-road-to-becoming-a-political-weasel-word-240533

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: So you don’t like Trump or Harris – here’s why it’s still best to vote for one of them

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Daniel F. Stone, Associate Professor of Economics, Bowdoin College

    In a close election, every vote really does matter. Nadzeya Haroshka/iStock / Getty Images Plus

    Many Americans are not thrilled with either of the two major-party candidates for president. As of Oct. 4, 2024, polls showed that 46.5% had an unfavorable opinion of Kamala Harris and 52.6% felt unfavorably toward Donald Trump.

    Some of these unhappy voters are considering voting for a third-party candidate, or not voting at all. They may be thinking of those actions as a form of protest against the two-party system dominant in the United States, or against these two particular candidates.

    For example, in a September poll 3.5% of Michigan voters said they planned to vote for a candidate other than Harris and Trump.

    At first glance, these choices might seem perfectly reasonable: If you don’t like a candidate, don’t vote for that person. But my work as a scholar of cognitive biases – systematic errors people make in their thinking – makes me fear that this option does not best serve the interests of those voters.

    Instead, protest voting is in fact likely to harm the democratic process, potentially leading to the election of the candidate the majority of voters overall, and protest voters specifically, most dislike. There are several reasons protest voters might make this mistake.

    How much does one vote matter?

    It’s clear that any one vote is very unlikely to swing the presidential election. And some might say that if one vote doesn’t really matter, then voters may as well vote however they want, or not bother to vote at all. Here’s why that’s flawed thinking:

    Suppose there are 10,000 voters in a state who feel unhappy with both candidates. But they almost surely dislike one candidate more than they dislike the other. Perhaps they disagree with some of Harris’ views but fear Trump. Or maybe it’s the other way around. They don’t have to agree on why they’re unhappy about the candidates either – some who are unhappy with Harris but prefer her over Trump may think Harris is too far left, while others may think she’s not enough of a leftist.

    Now suppose the rest of the state’s voters – those who are happy to vote for one of the two major candidates – are very narrowly split. Perhaps the gap is 5,000 votes. So, if the 10,000 unhappy voters do vote for one of the two major-party candidates, they can swing the election.

    Again, these unhappy voters really do have a preference – they like one of the major candidates better than the other. So while each individual unhappy voter wants to keep their hands clean and not vote, they would each like the other 9,999 unhappy voters to step up and swing the outcome in favor of their preferred candidate.

    Parents teach the Golden Rule to kids – do unto others as you would have them do unto you – and most people do actually believe in it and try to act accordingly. In this case, following the Golden Rule means that if you’re an unhappy voter and would like other unhappy voters to hold their noses and vote for the major candidate they least dislike, you should be willing to do the same thing yourself.

    But not all unhappy voters think this way. Some are led astray by their intuition and choose to protest-vote even when their own values would indicate they shouldn’t.

    A boycott might close a store, but it’s not going to prevent an election from delivering a winner.
    Nikolay Tsuguliev/iStock / Getty Images Plus

    A boycott error

    One reason a person might still think a protest vote makes sense is because of the assumption that boycotting something they don’t like is an effective means of contributing to positive change.

    A boycott against a person or organization you have a problem with often makes good sense. For instance, if there’s a restaurant in town with a reputation for being discriminatory, or just for being slow to get the food out, don’t go to it. Maybe it will close and make room for another business with better performance. Or maybe it will make some changes in hopes of growing its customer base.

    But when you cast a vote, whether on Election Day or beforehand, boycotting the viable candidates isn’t going to help. One of them is going to win whether you like it or not. Boycotting in this context is an example of a misapplied heuristic – a rule of thumb that’s often, but not always, helpful. Boycotting here doesn’t help you achieve your goal of eliminating or improving something you don’t like.

    Omission vs. commission

    Another reason people might choose a protest vote is because of a phenomenon in which people prefer to make mistakes of inaction – omission – over making mistakes that involve taking action – commission. People feel less guilty when they haven’t acted directly in support of a bad outcome. But both action and inaction can be errors, and both can deliver undesired results that constitute bad outcomes.

    The omission bias can help explain why some people are hesitant to get vaccinated against serious diseases: If they chose to get vaccinated and the vaccination led to a health problem, that would be a mistake of commission. Not getting vaccinated also might lead to a health problem, but that would be a mistake of omission. People tend to prefer the latter.

    Similarly, voting for a candidate you’re unsatisfied with could feel like a mistake of commission. Not voting, or voting for a third party, risks a mistake of omission – an error often assumed to be less significant. But choosing the possibility of an error of omission over one of commission doesn’t ensure you aren’t making a mistake – it just changes your mistake to one that’s intuitively more appealing.

    They are both politicians, but they are very different candidates.
    AP Photo

    False equivalence

    A final reason people might opt out of voting or choose to back a third-party candidate is that they object to the assumption that they dislike one candidate more than the other. Instead, these people claim the two main options are equally bad.

    But regardless of what your actual values and policy preferences are, that’s almost certainly untrue. The two candidates hold very different views on a wide range of issues, and have different records of what they have done – and not done – when in office.

    People who claim the two different candidates are basically the same are misusing another mental shortcut: the human tendency to think in categories. Grouping distinct items in the same category can simplify thinking, but it can ignore substantial differences.

    Some people think about 1-in-10 chances and 1-in-a-million chances as both being in the category of “possibilities.” But they’re very different: If you’re flipping a coin repeatedly, one is about equal to your chance of getting heads three times in a row, and the other is how likely you are to get heads 20 times in a row.

    Seeking your most desired outcome

    During the 2000 presidential campaign, I recall a friend said he wasn’t voting for Democratic candidate Al Gore because he thought Gore and Republican nominee George W. Bush were equally bad. But after winning – partly because of third-party voters who cast ballots for independent Ralph Nader – Bush withdrew the U.S. from the Kyoto Protocol to limit global carbon emissions, invaded Iraq, and passed tax cuts favoring the wealthy.

    All of those were actions Gore would almost certainly not have taken. The two candidates were very far from being the same, and even though my friend didn’t see it beforehand, he should have been able to.

    The U.S. will have a new president on Jan. 20, 2025: Trump or Harris. A third-party winner is not a real option.

    In some states voters can rank candidates in order of preference, more clearly expressing their choices without wasting their vote on a candidate who can’t win. People who believe it would be nice to have more choices with realistic chances of winning could work to adopt that system – known as ranked-choice voting – in their communities, or seek to adopt other methods that could eventually yield more viable options in the future. But it won’t happen in time for this election.

    Whether you like it or not, you face a binary choice: Vote for one or vote for the other. And please vote.

    Daniel F. Stone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. So you don’t like Trump or Harris – here’s why it’s still best to vote for one of them – https://theconversation.com/so-you-dont-like-trump-or-harris-heres-why-its-still-best-to-vote-for-one-of-them-240632

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Though home to about 50 white extremist groups, Ohio’s social and political landscape is undergoing rapid racial change

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Paul J. Becker, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Dayton

    Members of the white militia group Proud Boys march on the Ohio state capitol in Columbus on Jan. 6, 2024. Paul Becker, CC BY

    The first time many Americans heard about Springfield, Ohio, came during the September 2024 presidential debate when Donald Trump falsely claimed that Haitian immigrants in the city were eating other residents’ cats and dogs.

    Though shocking, these harmful rumors had been spreading on social media since the beginning of the summer and had gained more notoriety when JD Vance, a U.S. senator from Ohio and Trump’s running mate, made similar statements on X, the social media platform formerly called Twitter.

    But what has gone mostly overlooked is the effect these racist lies have had on energizing Ohio’s nearly 50 white extremist groups.

    Members of the white supremacist group Blood Tribe marched through Springfield on Aug. 10, 2024, with with swastikas on their signs.

    Since then, members of the Ku Klux Klan and the right-wing extremist group Proud Boys have each marched in separate demonstrations through Springfield.

    As scholars of extremism who live in Ohio and work at the University of Dayton, we have seen these events unfold at a time when city officials have received multiple bomb threats targeting local government offices and schools since Trump’s false and racist claims against Haitian immigrants.

    The changing landscape

    In our research, we have found that the rapidly changing social conditions in Ohio have played a significant role in the growth of extremism.

    Between 1990 and 2019, for instance, manufacturing jobs shrank from 21.7% of all employment in the state to 12.5%, a loss of nearly 360,000 jobs. As a result, income disparities between the professional and working classes have widened – as has the heightened sense among some alienated white men that white conservatives are the real victims of bias in a society growing more racially and culturally diverse.

    A neo-Nazi group speaks under heavy police protection at a 2005 rally sponsored by the National Socialist Movement at City Hall in Toledo, Ohio.
    Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    For many of these alienated men, particularly those in rural areas that lack significant numbers of Black and Hispanic residents, extremist ideologies offer easy answers to complex questions that involve their sense of disenfranchisement.

    In 2020, for example, the population of Springfield was about 60,000. But over the past three years, city officials estimate that the population has grown by about 25%, partly fueled by the arrival of as many as 15,000 Haitian immigrants during that time. Many of them are legally living in the U.S. under a special federal program.

    Similar demographic shifts are occurring throughout the state. Between 2010 and 2022, the percentage of the white population dropped from 81.2% to 77.3%, a loss of about 250,000, putting the state’s white population at about 9.1 million. During the same time, the Hispanic population, for instance, grew from about 357,000 in 2010 to nearly 525,000.

    For some of these white extremists, these population changes will lead to an inevitable race war between white people and nonwhite people. We have found that the attraction of belonging to a group that promises strength, protection and a source of identity can be particularly compelling.

    The Ohio connection

    In recent years, white extremism in Ohio has received attention as a result of the extremist rhetoric of and often violent crimes committed by white men who call the state home. Consider just a few examples:

    Born and raised in Ohio, Andrew Anglin founded the Daily Stormer, a popular neo-Nazi website, in 2016.

    James Alex Fields Jr. of Maumee, Ohio, poses for a mug shot after he drove his car into a crowd of counterprotesters in Charlottesville, Va., on Aug. 12, 2017.
    Albemarle-Charlottesville Regional Jail via Getty Images

    James Alex Fields Jr., a white nationalist from the Toledo area, was sentenced to life in prison in 2019 for the murder of Heather Heyer in Charlottesville, Virginia. Fields was convicted of driving his car into a crowd of counterprotesters during the white nationalist Unite the Right Rally in August 2017.

    Prior to the attack, Fields frequently posted the hashtag #Hitlerwasright on his social media accounts and called for violence against nonwhites and Jews.

    In the summer of 2022, Ohio law enforcement officers shot and killed Ricky Shiffer after the armed Navy veteran fired a nail gun at the FBI field office in Cincinnati. On his social media accounts, Shiffer had called for violence against federal law enforcement officials after the FBI searched Donald Trump’s residence at Mar-a-Lago as part of the federal probe into Trump’s handling of classified documents.

    Tres Genco, a self-described incel – short for “involuntary celibate” – who hated women and believed he was owed sex from them, was from the Cincinnati area and pled guilty in 2022 to plotting a mass shooting of women at Ohio State University. Law enforcement officials in Ohio stopped the planned attack before it happened.

    On April 21, 2023, Christopher Brenner Cook, 20, of Columbus, Ohio, and others were sentenced to nearly eight years in prison for his plan to attack power grids across the U.S. Cook and his accomplices believed that they were starting a race war and used neo-Nazi propaganda and white supremacist ideology to recruit young people to join their group.

    Online recruitment tactics

    Leaders of white supremacist and militia groups often use both traditional outreach and digital platforms to recruit people to their groups. Traditional outreach includes recruitment in conversations, attending events, and sharing books, pamphlets, flyers and posters.

    At the same time, social media has become a critical tool for extremist groups to spread their message, recruit members and organize events.

    These online platforms create echo chambers that reinforce extremist beliefs in debunked conspiracy theories, such as the assumption that the federal government is part of a plot to eliminate the white race.

    In addition to the increased traffic on social media, we have seen a rise of extremist groups in Ohio known as active clubs, where members engage in physical fitness, combat training and emotional support that encourages the development of a warrior mentality in preparation for what followers believe is an inevitable race war.

    Countering extremism in Ohio

    Though the emergence of white extremist groups goes far beyond the borders of Ohio, we have found that community-based, educational initiatives are effective in understanding and ultimately eradicating the root causes of racial and ethnic hatred on the local level.

    In our view, community engagement that emphasizes dialogue and understanding across different racial groups is crucial for demonstrating the dangers of intolerance – and the benefits of diversity.

    Paul J. Becker is part of a team at The University of Dayton that received funding from the Department of Homeland Security for the Preventing Radicalization to Extremist Violence through Education, Network-Building and Training in Southwest Ohio (PREVENTS-OH) project. Funded by the Department of Homeland Security under the Targeted Violence and Terrorism Prevention (TVTP) Grant Program, PREVENTS-OH recognizes that domestic violent extremism and hate movements pose a serious threat to the realization of human rights.

    Art Jipson is part of a team at The University of Dayton that received funding from the Department of Homeland Security for the Preventing Radicalization to Extremist Violence through Education, Network-Building and Training in Southwest Ohio (PREVENTS-OH) project. Funded by the Department of Homeland Security under the Targeted Violence and Terrorism Prevention (TVTP) Grant Program, PREVENTS-OH recognizes that domestic violent extremism and hate movements pose a serious threat to the realization of human rights.

    – ref. Though home to about 50 white extremist groups, Ohio’s social and political landscape is undergoing rapid racial change – https://theconversation.com/though-home-to-about-50-white-extremist-groups-ohios-social-and-political-landscape-is-undergoing-rapid-racial-change-239997

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Buyer beware: Off-brand Ozempic, Zepbound and other weight loss products carry undisclosed risks for consumers

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By C. Michael White, Distinguished Professor of Pharmacy Practice, University of Connecticut

    In just a few years, brand-name injectable drugs such as Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro and Zepbound have rocketed to fame as billion-dollar annual sellers for weight loss as well as to control blood sugar levels and reduce the risk of heart disease.

    But the price of these injections is steep: They cost about US$800-$1,000 per month, and if used for weight loss alone, they are not covered by most insurance policies. Both drugs mimic the naturally occurring hormone GLP-1 to help regulate blood sugar and reduce cravings. They can be taken only with a prescription.

    The Food and Drug Administration announced an official shortage of the active ingredients in these drugs in 2022, but on Oct. 2, 2024, the agency announced that the shortage has been resolved for the medicine tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Mounjaro and Zepbound.

    Despite the soaring demand and limited supply of these drugs, there are no generic versions available. This is because the patents for semaglutide – the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy, which is still in shortage – and tirzepatide don’t expire until 2033 and 2036, respectively.

    As a result, nonbrand alternatives that can be purchased with or without a prescription are flooding the market. Yet these products come with real risks to consumers.

    I am a pharmacist who studies weaknesses in federal oversight of prescription and over-the-counter drugs and dietary supplements in the U.S. My research group recently has investigated loopholes that are allowing alternative weight loss products to enter the market.

    High demand is driving GLP-1 wannabes

    The dietary supplement market has sought to cash in on the GLP-1 demand with pills, teas, extracts and all manner of other products that claim to produce similar effects as the brand names at a much lower price.

    Products containing the herb berberine offer only a few pounds of weight loss, while many dietary supplement weight loss products contain stimulants such as sibutramine and laxatives such as phenolphthalein, which increase the risk of heart attacks, strokes and cancer.

    Poison control centers have seen a steep rise in calls related to off-brand weight loss medications.

    The role of compounding pharmacies

    Unlike the dietary supplements that are masquerading as GLP-1 weight loss products, compounding pharmacies can create custom versions of products that contain the same active ingredients as the real thing for patients who cannot use either brand or generic products for some reason.

    These pharmacies can also produce alternative versions of brand-name drugs when official drug shortages exist.

    Since the demand for GLP-1 medications has far outpaced the supply, compounding pharmacies are legally producing a variety of different semaglutide and tirzepatide products.

    These products may come in versions that differ from the brand-name companies, such as vials of powder that must be dissolved in liquid, or as tablets or nasal sprays.

    Just like the brand-name drugs, you must have a valid prescription to receive them. The prices range from $250-$400 a month – still a steep price for many consumers.

    Compounding pharmacies must adhere to the FDA’s sterility and quality production methods, but these rules are not as rigorous for compounding pharmacies as those for commercial manufacturers of generic drugs.

    In addition, the products compounding pharmacies create do not have to be tested in humans for safety or effectiveness like brand-name products do.

    Proper dosing can also be challenging with compounded forms of the drugs.

    Companies that work the system

    For people who cannot afford a compounding pharmacy product, or cannot get a valid prescription for semaglutide or tirzepatide, opportunistic companies are stepping in to fill the void. These include “peptide companies,” manufacturers that create non-FDA approved knockoff versions of the drugs.

    From November 2023 to March 2024, my team carried out a study to assess which of these peptide companies are selling semaglutide or tirzepatide products. We scoured the internet looking for these peptide companies and collected information about what they were selling and their sales practices.

    We found that peptide sellers use a loophole to sell these drugs. On their websites, the companies state that their drugs are for “research purposes only” or “not for human consumption,” but they do nothing to verify that the buyers are researchers or that the product is going to a research facility.

    By reading the comments sections of the company websites and the targeted ads on social media, it becomes clear that both buyers and sellers understand the charade. Unlike compounding pharmacies, these peptide sellers do not provide the supplies you need to dissolve and inject the drug, provide no instructions, and will usually not answer questions.

    Peptide sellers, since they allegedly are not selling to consumers, do not require a valid prescription and will sell consumers whatever quantity of drug they wish to purchase. Even if a person has an eating disorder such as anorexia nervosa, the companies will happily sell them a semaglutide or tirzepatide product without a prescription. The average prices of these peptide products range from $181-$203 per month.

    Skirting regulations

    Peptide sellers do not have to adhere to the rules or regulations that drug manufacturers or compounding pharmacies do. Many companies state that their products are 99% pure, but an independent investigation of three companies’ products from August 2023 to March 2024 found that the purity of the products were far less than promised.

    One product contained endotoxin – a toxic substance produced by bacteria – suggesting that it was contaminated with microbes. In addition, the products’ promised dosages were off by up 29% to 39%. Poor purity can cause patients to experience fever, chills, nausea, skin irritation, infections and low blood pressure.

    In this study, some companies never even shipped the drug, telling the buyers they needed to pay an additional fee to have the product clear customs.

    If a consumer is harmed by a poor-quality product, it would be difficult to sue the seller, since the products specifically say they are “not for human consumption.” Ultimately, consumers are being led to spend money on products that may never arrive, could cause an infection, might not have the correct dose, and contain no instructions on how to safely use or store the product.

    Will prices for brand-name products come down?

    To combat these alternative sellers, pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly began offering an alternative version of its brand-name Zepbound product for weight loss in September 2024.

    Instead of its traditional injection pen products that cost more than $1,000 for a month’s supply, this product comes in vials that patients draw up and inject themselves. For patients who take 5 milligrams of Zepbound each week, the vial products would cost them $549 a month if patients buy it through the company’s online pharmacy and can show that they do not have insurance coverage for the drug.

    After a grilling on Capitol Hill in September 2024, pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk came under intense pressure to offer patients without prescription coverage a lower-priced product for its brand-name Wegovy as well.

    In the next few years, additional brand-name GLP-1 agonist drugs will likely make it to market. As of October 2024, a handful of these products are in late-phase clinical trials, with active ingredients such as retatrutide, survodutide and ecnoglutide, and more than 18 other drug candidates are in earlier stages of development.

    When new pharmaceutical companies enter this market, they will have to offer patients lower prices than Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk in order to gain market share. This is the most likely medium-term solution to drive down the costs of GLP-1 drugs and eliminate the drug shortages in the marketplace.

    C. Michael White does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Buyer beware: Off-brand Ozempic, Zepbound and other weight loss products carry undisclosed risks for consumers – https://theconversation.com/buyer-beware-off-brand-ozempic-zepbound-and-other-weight-loss-products-carry-undisclosed-risks-for-consumers-239480

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Columbus who? Decolonizing the calendar in Latin America

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Elena Jackson Albarrán, Associate Professor of History and Global and Intercultural Studies, Miami University

    Demonstrators make graffiti reading ‘Columbus Out, Long Live the People’ on a fence protecting a statue of Christopher Columbus in Mexico City on Oct. 12, 2020. Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Images

    This is the season of patriotism in Latin America as many countries commemorate their independence from colonial powers. From July to September, public plazas in countries from Mexico to Honduras and Chile fill with crowds dressed and painted in national colors, parades feature participants costumed as independence heroes, fireworks fill the skies, and schoolchildren reenact historical battles.

    Beneath these nationalist displays ripples an uneasy tide: the colonial legacies that still tie the Americas to their Iberian conquerors. And as the calendar turns to October, another holiday highlights similar tensions – Columbus Day.

    Since 1937, the U.S. has observed the holiday on the second Monday of the month, commemorating the explorer’s 1492 arrival in the New World. It remains a federal holiday, even as many states and cities rename it “Indigenous Peoples’ Day,” rejecting Christopher Columbus as a symbol of imperialism.

    Indigenous groups protest in front of a statue of Christopher Columbus on Oct. 12, 1997, during marches in Mexico against ‘Dia de la Raza’ celebrations.
    David Hernandez/AFP via Getty Images

    Most Latin Americans, meanwhile, know Oct. 12 as “Día de la Raza,” or Day of the Race, which also celebrates Columbus’ arrival in the New World and the tide of Iberian conquistadors that followed. But commemorating the event is all the more charged in these countries, home to the Spanish Empire’s most lucrative territorial assets and sweeping spiritual conquests. Days before taking office in September 2024, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum reiterated her predecessor’s demand that the king of Spain apologize for the genocide and exploitation of the conquest 500 years ago.

    As a historian of Latin America, I’ve paid attention to the ways calendars signal a nation’s “official” values and how countries wrestle with these holidays’ meanings.

    Día de la Raza

    The first encounter between Aztec emperor Montezuma and conquistador Hernando Cortés took place on Nov. 8, 1519 – the latter backed by an entourage of 300 Spaniards, thousands of Indigenous allies and slaves, and hundreds of Africans, free or otherwise.

    This moment of contact began Mexico’s 500-year transformation into a “mestizo” nation: a hybrid identity with largely European and Indigenous roots. During the colonial period, racial differences were codified into law, and those with “pure” Spanish bloodlines enjoyed legal privileges over the racially mixed categories that fell below them. The 19th century ushered in independence from Spain and liberal ideas that promoted racial equality – in principle – but in reality, European influence prevailed.

    It was Spain that first proposed the Día de la Raza, held on Oct. 12, 1892, to commemorate the 400-year anniversary of Columbus’ arrival in the Americas – implying a celebration of Spain’s contributions to the mestizo racial mixture.

    The celebration was part of a bid to fortify nationalism in Spain, as the waning colonial power continued its retreat from the hemisphere it controlled for the better part of four centuries. Spain also hoped to export the invented holiday to the Americas, strengthening trans-Atlantic cultural affinities tested by the United States’ growing sway. Across the Americas, Día de la Raza came to be synonymous with celebrating European influence.

    Decorations for ‘Día de la Raza,’ in the Monserrat neighborhood of Buenos Aires in 1929.
    Archivo General de la Nación/Wikimedia Commons

    In Mexico, the 1892 commemoration empowered members of the political elite who promoted European investments and culture as the model for modernizing the country. They used the occasion to extol the civilizing influence of the “madre patria,” or motherland, justifying the conquest and colonialism as a period of benevolent rule.

    Mestizo nationalism

    Only a few years later, however, the U.S. victory in the Spanish-American War swept the last vestiges of Spanish empire from the hemisphere. Spain’s exit made way for dual – and dueling – phenomena: rising patriotic spirit in Latin American countries, even amid increasing economic pressure and cultural influence from the U.S.

    The 1910 Mexican Revolution ignited mestizo nationalism, which soon extended to other countries. In 1930s Nicaragua, Augusto Sandino started a revolution to oust the occupying U.S. Marines while calling for the unification of the “Indo-Hispanic Race.” Meanwhile, Peruvian intellectual José Mariátegui envisioned a modern nation built upon the ideals of a collective, reciprocal society, modeled by the Incan ayllu system. And in Mexico, beauty pageants celebrating native features gained popularity among the social classes accustomed to perusing department stores for Parisian imports.

    Yet a tendency to emphasize Spanish cultural ancestry rather than Indigenous ones persisted. In the late 1930s, for example, October issues of Mexican children’s magazine Palomilla celebrated Columbus’ arrival as a heroic entry that provided the region with a common language and religion.

    Pan American Day

    Meanwhile, the U.S viewed Pan-Hispanic sentiments as a threat: Spanish economic goals, cloaked in racial and cultural solidarity.

    To help shore up hemispheric allegiances, Franklin D. Roosevelt proclaimed a new holiday on April 14, 1930: Pan American Day, or Día de las Américas. The holiday sought to offset the narratives of both Columbus Day and Día de la Raza and marked the U.S. administration’s Good Neighbor Policy pivot toward Latin America – a softer form of imperialism that promoted solidarity and brotherhood, at least on the surface.

    The Pan American Union, an inter-American organization headquartered in Washington, saw the new date as an opportunity to forge common traditions across the hemisphere. It vigorously promoted Pan American Day celebrations, primarily among schoolchildren, exhorting teachers to implement games, puzzles, pageants and songs created in Pan American Union offices.

    Students at Parkway Public School in New York present a pageant for Pan American Day in 1943.
    Bettmann/CORBIS/Bettmann Archive via Getty Images

    The holiday met enthusiastic reception in the United States. Midwesterners donned sombreros for parades, and Spanish language clubs in California hosted pageants celebrating the flags of American nations.

    But Latin American commemoration was tepid at best. The Organization of American States, the successor to the Pan American Union, still recognizes Pan American Day. However, it never gained traction in Latin America and faded in the U.S. during World War II.

    Recent shift

    Latin America’s ambivalence toward holidays to commemorate the colonizers has taken a turn since 1992. The 500-year anniversary of Columbus’ arrival corresponded with yet another form of colonialism, in many Latin Americans’ eyes, as a new wave of multinational corporations colluded with heads of state to tap the continent’s oil, lithium, water and avocados.

    Activists used the commemoration to call attention to lingering economic, social, racial and cultural inequities. In particular, the anniversary inspired Indigenous rights movements – some of which commemorated an “anti-quincentenary” to celebrate “500 years of resistance.”

    The Día de la Raza has since been renamed to reflect anti-colonial sentiments, similar to Columbus Day in the United States. Ecuador calls Oct. 12 the Day of Interculturalism and Ethnic Identity; Argentina celebrates it as Day of Respect for Cultural Diversity; Nicaragua now refers to it as the Day of Indigenous, Black and Popular Resistance; in Colombia it is the Day of Ethnic and Cultural Diversity; and the Dominican Republic celebrates it as Intercultural Day.

    A statue in honor of ‘women who fight’ has replaced an effigy of Christopher Columbus on Paseo de la Reforma Avenue in Mexico City.
    Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Images

    In some places, renaming the holiday has drawn attention to Indigenous rights and culture. Bolivians, for example, draped a statue of a European monarch in a traditional “aguayo” garment, transforming her into an Indigenous woman. However, critics suggest that removing the holiday’s reference to the colonizers erases an important reminder of the conquest and its painful legacy.

    As in the U.S., monuments to colonizers are coming down – including the monument to Columbus that occupied a conspicuous spot on La Reforma, one of Mexico City’s most-traversed thoroughfares.

    In its place is a new installation: a purple silhouette of a girl with her fist raised, in honor of Latin America’s women activists. She heralds a new era of statues lining La Reforma, and heroes for the future – not mired in the colonial legacies of the past.

    Elena Jackson Albarrán does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Columbus who? Decolonizing the calendar in Latin America – https://theconversation.com/columbus-who-decolonizing-the-calendar-in-latin-america-233307

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 5 kinds of American evangelicals and their voting patterns

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Richard Flory, Executive Director, Center for Religion and Civic Culture, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

    Evangelicals may share the same basic theology, but they are not a monolithic group. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

    Polls and analyses from journalists, scholars and even religious leaders often seem to assume that evangelicalism represents a singular religious and social identity. Former president and Republican nominee Donald Trump, who received 81% of the white evangelical vote in the 2016 election, is predicted to garner a majority share of this vote again in 2024.

    Yet, the reality is much more complex. In 2016, for example, evangelical leaders such as Jerry Falwell Jr. and Robert Jeffress celebrated Trump’s victory and evangelicalism’s role in bringing America back to God. Others – such as Russell Moore, currently editor of the evangelical magazine Christianity Today – saw Trump as the opposite of what evangelicalism represents.

    Led by prominent figures such as the late Jerry Falwell, contemporary evangelicalism emerged as a political force in the 1970s and 1980s and championed conservative religious values. Since then, evangelicals have been regarded as a uniform, monolithic group who are opposed to gay rights, abortion and more, and that they are a reliable conservative voting bloc.

    As a scholar of American religion who has studied the evangelical movement for over 30 years, I was dissatisfied with this interpretation. At University of Southern California’s Center for Religion and Civic Culture, we decided to bring together our collective research on evangelicalism to develop a broader template to understand the dynamics of American evangelicalism. The result was a report first published in 2018 that we continue to update.

    We have identified and described five varieties, or “types,” within the broader evangelical movement.

    Evangelicals and their beliefs

    At its core, evangelicalism is characterized by a belief in the literal truth of the Bible.

    For example, evangelicals believe that the world and humans were created by God; that Jesus was literally God’s son and also born as a human; that Jesus died and physically rose from the dead; and that God currently acts through humans to achieve his ends for humanity. A hallmark belief for evangelicals is having a “personal relationship with Jesus Christ” and a focus on encouraging others to be “born again” or “saved” through Jesus.

    Despite sharing the same basic theology, there are differences within evangelicalism politics and social engagement.

    We used three criteria to develop our five categories: First, each type shares a basic agreement on evangelical theology. Second, they each understand themselves as existing within the larger tradition of American evangelicalism. And third, their theology motivates how they act in the world, including appropriate social and political actions.

    Typologies simplify in order to explain, but they also can blur some of the finer distinctions between categories. Still, the perspectives these different varieties of evangelicals maintain shape not only who they will vote for but also why they vote a certain way.

    1. MAGA-vangelicals

    MAGA-vangelicals consist of the white Christian nationalist core of the “Make America Great Again” or MAGA, movement, with some Latino, Asian and Black American pastors aligning themselves with this movement.

    MAGA-vangelicals have been the most vocal and visible group of evangelicals since the 2016 election.

    The origins of this group trace back to the 1980s – the time of the emergence of the religious right. MAGA-vangelicals echo many of the same issues – such as opposition to abortion and LGBTQ+ rights and support for anti-immigration policies. One significant shift, however, since the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection, is an increased acceptance of political violence. “Jan. 6 was not an insurrection,” evangelical leader Lance Wallnau has falsely asserted. “It was an election fraud intervention.” The baseless election fraud myth was the pretext for the violence on Jan. 6.

    2. Neo-fundamentalist evangelicals

    Neo-fundamentalists are evangelicals who are as theologically or politically conservative as MAGA-vangelicals but maintain a [theological commitment] to remain separate from any relationships – whether personal, social or political – that would, in their view, compromise the teachings of evangelical Christianity and their own identity as evangelical Christians.

    For example, Southern Baptist Theological Seminary President Albert Mohler and Christianity Today editor Russell Moore have opposed Trump due to his, by evangelical standards, lack of values and amoral lifestyle.

    The Rev. Russell Moore.
    AP Photo/Mark Humphrey, File

    However, they support how the Trump administration furthered the political goals of evangelical Christianity. In particular, they support the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade and supporting evangelicals’ religious freedom to discriminate against LGBTQ+ people in their businesses.

    Yet there has recently been some qualified support among neo-fundamentalists offered for Trump himself, despite their opposition to his personal morals. For example, Mohler has argued that Trump is the better candidate to achieve their goals in 2024, despite his personal shortcomings. Mohler takes the position, though, that this support largely depends on Trump remaining committed to evangelical goals on issues such as abortion.

    3. iVangelicals

    iVangelicals are evangelicals primarily focused on personal faith and the weekly worship experience in their churches. They are mainly concentrated in the evangelical megachurch movement.

    iVangelicals want to reach large numbers of people through their popular worship services, varied social programs and small group ministries.

    iVangelicals are particularly adept at borrowing and adapting elements of popular culture to provide a “relevant” church atmosphere.

    For example, most iVangelical megachurches include music that, other than the lyrics, is nearly indistinguishable from secular pop and rock bands, in both style and quality. Although they are generally conservative in their theology and politics, they tend to stay away from overtly political messages in their churches.

    There is, however, a range of beliefs and commitments among iVangelicals, with some being attracted to groups such as Evangelicals for Harris, a new effort to mobilize evangelicals to move away from Republicans, Trump and MAGA and to vote for Harris. Their approach uses biblical examples and references to argue that true Christian teachings and actions are more aligned with Democrats than Republicans.

    Evangelicals for Harris.

    4. Kingdom Christians

    Kingdom Christians are evangelicals who, in their churches and ministries, strive to mirror the demographic and socioeconomic mix of the neighborhoods where they are rooted.

    They tend to have a more diverse racial and ethnic mix of members than other evangelical churches. Their focus is to be a part of, and to serve, their local communities in a manner that mirrors their conception of the kingdom of God on Earth.

    Leaders among Kingdom Christians often critique the economic and political systems that produce poverty and racial injustice. The focus of their efforts, however, is on creating relationships with local businesses and activists in the local community and contributing to policy through engagement with local officials.

    Kingdom Christians are present-oriented; the kingdom of God is to be realized in the communities where believers live, as well as in some future spiritual world.

    5. Peace and Justice evangelicals

    Peace and Justice evangelicals are a loose network of pastors, nonprofit leaders, professors and activists. They are a small segment within evangelicalism often embedded in larger organizations, and they focus their work on key social and political issues such as racial justice, immigration reform and environmental issues. They seek to have a wider impact than just a focus on the local community.

    Peace and Justice evangelicals trace their origins to the late 1960s publication, The Other Side, originally Freedom Now, which represented a freshly emerging evangelical social consciousness around issues of racial justice. Following close behind was the Sojourners community, and Sojourners magazine, which is still active today.

    In 1973, a group of evangelical college professors wrote the Chicago Declaration of Social Concern, which ultimately led to the launch of Evangelicals for Social Action as a national organization in 1978.

    This is a small but growing minority in the larger evangelical world, with many belonging to traditional evangelical institutions. For example, Alexia Salvatierra, at Fuller Seminary, is a longtime “faith-rooted” community organizer and has more recently been instrumental in forming Matthew 25/Mateo25, a group that aids immigrants and “defends the vulnerable.” Shane Claiborne, a long-time urban activist, is currently head of Red Letter Christians, a movement that combines “Jesus and justice” and seeks to “live out Jesus’ counter-cultural teachings.”

    Several Christians work with organizations that help immigrants.
    AP Photo/Russell Contreras

    Evangelicals and the future

    Following historical evangelical voting patterns, it is likely that most white evangelicals will vote for Trump in 2024. I believe many will do so with enthusiasm, while others will vote for him because of his policies, while remaining troubled by his rhetoric.

    Of the evangelicals who oppose Trump, some will refuse to vote for either Trump or Harris, refusing to cast a vote for president. Others will vote for Harris, following the example of many Republican leaders who are seeking to move beyond the damage that Trump and the MAGA movement have done to the Republican Party and to conservatism.

    Meanwhile, for the Kingdom Christians and Peace and Justice evangelicals, the true values of evangelical Christianity will be supported by the more progressive policies of the Democratic Party.

    Regardless of how they vote in the 2024 election, evangelicals in all of these categories will continue to promote their distinct vision of evangelicalism and educate members on how they should bring their faith to bear on important social and political issues in American culture.

    Richard Flory has received funding from the John Templeton Foundation and the Lilly Endowment.

    – ref. 5 kinds of American evangelicals and their voting patterns – https://theconversation.com/5-kinds-of-american-evangelicals-and-their-voting-patterns-238470

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The woman who revolutionized the fantasy genre is finally getting her due

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Dennis Wise, Professor of Practice in English Literature, University of Arizona

    Hugo Award-winner Arthur C. Clarke called Judy-Lynn del Rey the ‘most brilliant editor I ever encountered.’ Artwork by Adriano Botega. Courtesy of Inspiration Films, LLC.

    Think of your favorite fantasy or science fiction novel. You’ll know the author and title, of course. But can you think of its editor or publisher?

    In publishing, the people who work behind the scenes rarely get their due. But on Oct. 1, 2024, at least, one industry pioneer got the limelight. On that day, PBS aired “Judy-Lynn del Rey: The Galaxy Gal,” the first episode of its new documentary series “Renegades,” which highlights little-known historical figures with disabilities.

    A woman with dwarfism, Judy-Lynn del Rey was best known for founding Del Rey Books, a science fiction and fantasy imprint that turned fantasy in particular into a major publishing category.

    As a scholar of fantasy literature, I had the good fortune to serve as research consultant for the PBS project. Due to time constraints, however, the episode could tell only half of del Rey’s story, passing over how she affected science fiction and fantasy themselves.

    Judy-Lynn del Rey, you see, had very clear notions on what kind of stories people wanted to buy. For some critics, she also committed the unforgivable sin of being right.

    The Mama of ‘Star Wars’

    Over the course of her career, del Rey earned a reputation as a superstar editor among her authors. Arthur C. Clarke, who co-wrote the screenplay for “2001: A Space Odyssey,” called her the “most brilliant editor I ever encountered,” and Philip K. Dick said she was the “greatest editor since Maxwell Perkins,” the legendary editor of Ernest Hemingway and F. Scott Fitzgerald.

    She got her start, though, working as an editorial assistant – in truth, a “gofer” – for the most lauded science fiction magazine of the 1960s, Galaxy. There she learned the basics of publishing and rose rapidly through the editorial ranks until Ballantine Books lured her away in 1973.

    Soon thereafter, Ballantine was acquired by publishing giant Random House, which then named del Rey senior editor. Yet her first big move was a risky one – cutting ties with Ballantine author John Norman, whose highly popular “Gor” novels were widely panned for their misogyny.

    Del Rey’s acquisition of the rights to ‘Star Wars’ was a boon for Ballantine.
    The Internet Speculative Fiction Database

    Nonetheless, del Rey’s mission was to develop a strong backlist of science fiction novels that could hook new generations of younger readers, not to mention adults. One early success was her “Star Trek Log” series, a sequence of 10 novels based on episodes of “Star Trek: The Animated Series.”

    But del Rey landed an even bigger success by snagging the novelization rights to a science fiction film that, at the time, few Hollywood executives believed would do well: “Star Wars.”

    This savvy gamble led to years of lucrative tie-in products for Ballantine such as calendars, art books, sketchbooks, the Star Wars Intergalactic Passport and, of course, more novels set in the Star Wars universe – so many different tie-ins, in fact, that del Rey dubbed herself the “Mama of Star Wars.”

    Afterward, she became someone who, as reporter Jennifer Crighton put it, radiated “with the shameless glee of one of the Rebel forces, an upstart who won.”

    A big player in big fiction

    Del Rey’s tendencies as an editor were sometimes criticized – often by competitors who could not match her line’s success – for focusing too much on Ballantine’s bottom line. But she also chose to work within the publishing landscape as it actually existed in the 1970s, rather than the one she only wished existed.

    In his book “Big Fiction,” publishing industry scholar Dan Sinykin calls this period the “Conglomerate Era,” a time when publishing houses – usually small and family run – were being consolidated into larger corporations.

    One benefit of this shift, however, was greater corporate investment in the industry, which boosted print runs, marketing budgets, author advances and salaries for personnel.

    Ballantine’s parent company, Random House, was also known as an industry leader in free speech, thanks to the efforts of legendary CEOs Bennett Cerf and Robert L. Bernstein.

    Accordingly, Random House gave their publishing divisions, including Ballantine, immense creative autonomy.

    And when del Rey was finally given her own imprint in 1977, she took her biggest risk of all: fantasy.

    The Del Rey era

    In prior decades, fantasy had a reputation for being unsellable – unless, of course, your name was J.R.R. Tolkien, or you wrote Conan-style barbarian fiction. Whereas the top science fiction magazines often had distinguished runs, fantasy magazines often folded due to lack of sales.

    The popular film version of ‘The Princess Bride’ was aided by del Rey’s earlier advocacy for reissuing the novel.
    The Internet Speculative Fiction Database

    In 1975, though, del Rey hired her husband, Lester del Rey, to develop a fantasy line, and when Del Rey Books launched two years later, it landed major successes with bestsellers such as Terry Brooks’ “The Sword of Shannara” and Stephen R. Donaldson’s “The Chronicles of Thomas Covenant the Unbeliever.” Yet even though Lester edited the fantasy authors, Judy-Lynn oversaw the imprint and the marketing.

    One lesser-known example of her prowess is “The Princess Bride.”

    Today, most people know the 1987 film, but the movie originated as a much earlier novel by William Goldman. The original 1973 edition, however, sold poorly. It might have faded into obscurity had del Rey not been determined to revive Ballantine’s backlist.

    She reissued “The Princess Bride” in 1977 with a dazzling, gate-folded die-cut cover and a new promotional campaign, without which the novel – and the film – might never have found its later success.

    Accolades accumulate

    Thanks to these efforts, Del Rey Books dominated genre publishing, producing more bestselling titles through 1990 than every other science fiction and fantasy publisher combined. Yet despite complaints that the imprint prioritized commercial success over literary merit, Del Rey authors earned their fair share of literary accolades.

    The prestigious Locus Poll Award for best science fiction novel went to Del Rey authors Julian May and Isaac Asimov in 1982 and 1983. Other Locus awardees include Patricia A. McKillip, Robert A. Heinlein, Larry Niven, Marion Zimmer Bradley and Barbara Hambly.

    Barry Hughart’s “Bridge of Birds” was one of two winners for the World Fantasy Award in 1985 and won the Mythopoeic Society Award in 1986. Even more impressively, Del Rey ran away with the Science Fiction Book Club Award during that prize’s first nine years of existence, winning seven of them. The imprint’s titles also won three consecutive August Derleth Fantasy Awards – now called the British Fantasy Award – from 1977 through 1979.

    Yet despite these accolades, Del Rey’s reputation continued to suffer from its own commercial success. Notably, Judy-Lynn del Rey was never nominated for a Hugo Award for best professional editor. When she died in 1986, the Hugo committee belatedly tried granting her a posthumous award, but her husband, Lester, refused to accept it, saying that it came too late.

    Although the current narrative continues to be that Del Rey Books published mainly formulaic mass-market fiction in its science fiction and fantasy lines, the time may be ripe to celebrate the foresight and iconoclasm of a publisher who expanded speculative fiction beyond the borders of a small genre fandom.

    I was research consultant for the PBS episode mentioned in the article, but I am not an employee of PBS or any other organization mentioned in this article.

    – ref. The woman who revolutionized the fantasy genre is finally getting her due – https://theconversation.com/the-woman-who-revolutionized-the-fantasy-genre-is-finally-getting-her-due-240198

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: DEA could reclassify marijuana to a less restrictive category – a drug policy expert weighs the pros and cons

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Chris Meyers, Adjunct Professor of Philosophy, George Washington University

    The move would not make marijuana legal at the federal level for recreational use and would require dispensaries to comply with medical marijuana requirements. Nathalie Jamois/SOPA Images, LightRocket via Getty Images

    The Drug Enforcement Administration announced in early 2024 that it would act on President Joe Biden’s call to reclassify marijuana, moving it from the tightly controlled Schedule I category that it has been in since 1970 to the less restrictive Schedule III status of the Controlled Substances Act. That triggered a long process of hearings and reviews that will not be completed until after the presidential election in November.

    The news drew strong reactions from critics: 25 Republican lawmakers sent a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland protesting any changes to federal marijuana laws. They argued that the decision “was not properly researched … and is merely responding to the popularity of marijuana and not the actual science.”

    As a philosopher and drug policy expert, I focus on assessing arguments and evidence rather than politics or rhetoric. So, what are the arguments for and against rescheduling cannabis?

    Scheduling under the Controlled Substances Act

    The Controlled Substances Act places each prohibited drug into one of five schedules based on known medical use, addictive potential and safety. Schedule I drugs – which, along with marijuana, also includes heroin, LSD, psilocybin, ecstasy (MDMA) and quaaludes – is the most restrictive category.

    Schedule I substances cannot be legally used for any purpose, including medical use or research, though an exception for research can be made with special permission from the DEA. The criteria for inclusion in the Schedule I category is that the substance has a high potential for abuse, is extremely addictive and has “no currently accepted medical use.”

    Schedule II, which is slightly less restrictive than Schedule I, includes drugs that are addictive and potentially unsafe but also have some accepted medical use. These include strong opioids such as fentanyl, as well as cocaine, PCP and methamphetamine. Though they are still tightly regulated, Schedule II drugs can be used medically with a prescription or administered by a licensed physician.

    Schedule III is much less restrictive and is intended for substances with legitimate medical use and only moderate risk of abuse or dependency. This category includes low-dose morphine, anabolic steroids and ketamine.

    Schedule IV – which includes the sedative valium, the weak opioid tramadol and sleep medicines such as Ambien – is even less restrictive.

    The least restrictive category is Schedule V, which includes cough syrups with codeine and calcium channel blockers such as gabapentin and pregabalin. All scheduled drugs require a doctor’s prescription and can be distributed only by licensed pharmacies.

    What rescheduling would mean for marijuana

    The push to reschedule is largely to make federal laws consistent with state medical marijuana programs that – as of October 2024 – are legal in 38 states plus the District of Columbia.

    Moving marijuana to Schedule III would not change its legal status in states where it is banned. It would make marijuana legal at the federal level but only for medical use. Recreational use would still be federally prohibited, even though it is currently legal in 24 states plus Washington.

    Rescheduling, however, might not make medical marijuana any easier for patients to access and could even make it much harder for some. Currently, getting a medical marijuana card is quite easy in most states. In Washington D.C., where I live, patients can self-certify.

    Reclassifying marijuana as a Schedule III drug would legitimize its medical use.

    If marijuana is reclassified as Schedule III, medical marijuana programs will have to start requiring a doctor’s prescription, just like with all other scheduled substances. And it could be distributed only by licensed pharmacies, which would put medical dispensaries that are now selling it without a license from the Food and Drug Administration out of business.

    Rescheduling, however, would give medical marijuana legitimacy as a bona fide medicine. And the intent of the move is to increase access, even if it is unclear how rescheduling would achieve that.

    So, assuming that rescheduling would have the intended effect of expanding access to medical marijuana, should it be rescheduled?

    Medical uses of marijuana

    Though there are three criteria for Schedule I in the Controlled Substances Act, the DEA in fact relies on only the medical use criterion. This was the basis of the DEA’s proposal to reschedule marijuana. The fact that almost 75% of Americans live in a state with a medical marijuana program suggests that marijuana has an accepted medical use.

    More importantly, Schedule III of the Controlled Substances Act already includes dronabinol, which is delta-9 THC, the active ingredient in marijuana. Although dronabinol is synthesized in the lab rather than extracted from the cannabis plant, it is the exact same molecule. The FDA approved THC in the form of dronabinol in 1985 for treating anorexia caused by HIV/AIDS as well as nausea and vomiting due to chemotherapy. Placing marijuana in the same schedule as its primary active ingredient makes a lot of sense.

    Another argument in favor of rescheduling is that it would open up new opportunities for medical research into marijuana’s effects, research that is currently hampered by its Schedule I status. This work is critical because the system of cannabinoid receptors through which marijuana causes its therapeutic and psychoactive effects is crucial for almost every aspect of human functioning.

    Research has shown that cannabis is effective not only in treating nausea and AIDS but also chronic pain and some symptoms of multiple sclerosis.

    There is also good evidence that marijuana can help treat other conditions, including Lou Gehrig’s disease (amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, or ALS), glaucoma, irritable bowel syndrome, insomnia, migraine, post-traumatic stress disorder and Tourette syndrome. Keeping marijuana in the Schedule I category severely hampers research that might establish more effective treatments for these conditions.

    Researchers have been extremely limited in their abilities to study marijuana because of its Schedule I classification.

    Balancing risks and benefits

    Those opposed to rescheduling cite possible health risks associated with marijuana consumption. Heavy use is linked to an increased risk of developing schizophrenia. However, the increased risk of schizophrenia from cannabis use is comparable to that caused by watching excessive television, eating junk food or smoking cigarettes.

    Long-term marijuana use can also lead to sleep problems and diminished visuospatial memory. It can also cause gastrointestinal trouble, such as cannabis hyperemesis syndrome, which is characterized by nausea, vomiting and abdominal pain. The symptoms, while extremely unpleasant, are temporary and occur only after consuming marijuana. The condition disappears in people who stop using.

    Marijuana use can also be addictive. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, about three out of every 10 regular marijuana users meet the diagnostic criteria for cannabis use disorder.

    All of the concerns above are legitimate, though it is worth noting that virtually no effective medicine is free from undesirable side effects. And although marijuana can be habit-forming, it is not as addictive as alcohol, tobacco, oxycodone, cocaine, methamphetamine or benzodiazepines. None of those other drugs are categorized as Schedule I, and alcohol and tobacco are not scheduled at all.

    Unlike most other prescription medications, marijuana use is associated with many benefits. For example, in states where marijuana has been legalized, worker’s compensation payments have fallen by an average of 21% among people over 40. Researchers think that this is because marijuana helps workers better manage chronic pain. The use of marijuana for pain management also helps to reduce dependency on opioids. One study found that U.S. counties with one or two marijuana dispensaries had an average of 17% fewer opioid-related fatalities compared with counties with no dispensaries.

    Research also shows that marijuana use can help to prevent Alzheimer’s by blocking the enzymes that produce amyloid plaques. It also shows promise for reducing a person’s risk of developing Type 2 diabetes by helping the body regulate insulin and glucose levels.

    All of these benefits add up to marijuana users having an overall lower rate of premature death than nonusers.

    Chris Meyers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. DEA could reclassify marijuana to a less restrictive category – a drug policy expert weighs the pros and cons – https://theconversation.com/dea-could-reclassify-marijuana-to-a-less-restrictive-category-a-drug-policy-expert-weighs-the-pros-and-cons-237199

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Cambodia: journalist arrest signals false dawn for democracy as the country slides into authoritarianism

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sabina Lawreniuk, Principal Research Fellow, University of Nottingham

    Mech Dara, an award-winning Cambodian journalist and one of the kingdom’s last remaining independent media voices, was arrested on Monday, September 30. He has been detained over a social media post for “incitement to disturb social security”, and faces up to two years in jail.

    The news of Dara’s arrest has saddened and disturbed many within Cambodia and elsewhere. But it will have shocked few. Dara’s courageous journalism has made him a persistent thorn in the side of Cambodia’s ruling class.

    No stranger to harassment and intimidation by Cambodia’s increasingly repressive state apparatus, Dara had told me when we last met that he was considering applying for political asylum abroad. Life had become impossible in Cambodia.

    From humble beginnings, Dara built his reputation on a dogged commitment to justice, whose work includes exposing human rights abuse, illegal logging, land grabs and labour struggles in his homeland. These are rife in a notoriously corrupt state that ranks 141 out of 142 countries worldwide on the World Justice Project’s Rule of Law Index.

    Most recently, however, Dara’s investigations have focused on uncovering abuse in Cambodia’s cyberscam industry. Dara’s reporting, which in 2023 earned him a “Hero” commendation by the US State Department, revealed how the industry often involves cyberscam compounds staffed by victims of human trafficking.

    His investigations have disclosed how these people are compelled under the threat of physical torture and financial extortion to perform acts of deception and fraud on targets across China, the US, Europe and beyond, through fake romances or cryptocurrency schemes.

    The UN estimates that at least 100,000 people have been tricked into participating in this criminal industry, which is now said to be worth more than US$12 billion (£9.1 billion) per year in Cambodia.

    Dara has turned to identifying the political and business elites in Cambodia whose complicity enables the criminal syndicates who run the compounds to flourish with impunity.

    Some of his best-known work linked the LYP Group, which is owned by prominent Cambodian businessman and state senator, Ly Yong Phat, to the operation of scam compounds in Cambodia’s Koh Kong province. Ly Yong Phat continues to deny any involvement.

    The timing of Dara’s arrest may be no coincidence. He was detained 18 days after the US treasury department sanctioned Ly Yong Phat for his role in serious human rights abuse related to the treatment of trafficked workers.

    Dara’s arrest is believed by some to be an act of retaliation intended to send a chilling message to those who challenge the vested interests of Cambodia’s incumbent kleptocracy: be silent or you will be silenced.

    It continues a pattern of the Cambodian oligarchy’s waging of “lawfare” against members of civil society, using the court system to intimidate and muzzle critics. It is the surest sign yet that Cambodia’s new prime minister, Hun Manet, intends to follow his predecessor’s pathway into intensifying authoritarianism.

    The son rises

    Cambodia’s self-proclaimed “strongman” leader, Hun Sen, stepped down as prime minster in August 2023 after nearly 40 years in power. He chose Manet, his oldest son, as his successor.

    A dynastic succession does not typically indicate a democratic transfer of power. Yet hopes were raised that Manet might reverse the increasingly authoritarian trajectory of his father’s rule.

    Where Hun Sen came of age fighting on the frontlines of Cambodia’s civil war, Hun Manet has had a more worldly upbringing. He was educated in the US and UK, and obtained a PhD in economics from the University of Bristol.

    Cambodian prime minister, Hun Manet, who succeeded his father Hun Sen in 2023.
    Sa sola / Shutterstock

    Some observers believed that the softly spoken and sharp-suited Manet might possess a more liberal worldview than that of his father, ushering a new era of renewed democracy.

    Hun Sen’s reign in Cambodia was characterised by an increasing reliance on what researcher Neil Loughlin terms the “politics of coercion” to cement his hold on power. The Hun family are at the centre of a network of tightly entwined business and state elites that exert a stranglehold over Cambodia’s politics and economy.

    This kleptocratic coalition is accused of asset-stripping the kingdom of its once-abundant natural resources, enriching themselves at the cost of impoverishing the many. As a result, popular dissent has grown.

    To quell any threat to its longevity, the ruling Cambodian People’s party (CPP) has led a concerted crackdown on freedoms of association, assembly and expression. Over the past decade, this has included the shuttering of almost all independent news outlets, the dissolution of the opposition Cambodian National Rescue party, and the detention of its leader, Kem Sokha, under house arrest.

    As the architect of the Paris Peace Accords that brokered the end to Cambodia’s civil war, the old guard of the party has sought to legitimise its heavyhanded approach by stressing the continued need to preserve order and stability to prevent descent into further unrest.

    A false dawn

    Manet has been keen to present himself as part of a new guard, ready to reengage with major powers such as the US and EU. Both the US and EU had cooled relations with Cambodia following the democratic deficits unleashed during Hun Sen’s premiership.

    Yet the cyberscam story and its growing repercussions have embarrassed Cambodia on the international stage. By apparently censoring Mech Dara for uncovering the scandal, rather than seeking to control party elements responsible for the cyberscam scourge, Manet appears to be showing where his true loyalties and sentiments lie.

    Dara is but one of a long line of dissenters charged with “incitement” by the CPP-controlled courts. With its explicit reference to the conjured threat of renewed social chaos, it harks to the CPP’s past as custodian of order and stability.

    The heavyhanded nature of the arrest itself, where Dara was apprehended by a convoy of six military vehicles while on vacation with his family, is also straight out of the CPP’s historic playbook. Persecution not by stealth but by flourish, it sends a wider message to civil society to deter any would-be imitators.

    More crucially, it signals a forceful intent to preserve the power, plunder and impunity of Cambodia’s elites, and a commitment to the continued silencing of dissenting voices who threaten their supremacy.

    Sabina Lawreniuk receives funding from UKRI’s Future Leaders Fellowship scheme.

    – ref. Cambodia: journalist arrest signals false dawn for democracy as the country slides into authoritarianism – https://theconversation.com/cambodia-journalist-arrest-signals-false-dawn-for-democracy-as-the-country-slides-into-authoritarianism-240382

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Fix the climate or appease the fossil fuel industry – we can’t do both

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK edition

    Britain ended more than 140 years of coal power when it closed its last generator in September.

    Coal emits more heat-trapping gas to the atmosphere than any other fossil fuel, so its demise as a source of electricity is an unalloyed good for the climate. Yet, with another announcement a week later, the UK government has helped extend the reign of fossil fuels well into the 21st century.


    This roundup of The Conversation’s climate coverage comes from our award-winning weekly climate action newsletter. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 35,000+ readers who’ve subscribed.

    Less than six months from polling day, the UK Labour party (then the official opposition) scrapped a campaign commitment to provide an annual stimulus of £28 billion (US$36.6 billion) for green industries.



    Read more:
    Labour’s £28 billion green investment promise could be watered down – here’s why

    Six billion pounds shy of this figure will now be raised over 25 years, Keir Starmer’s Labour government has revealed, but for a specific purpose: carbon capture and storage.

    “The technology works by capturing CO₂ as it is being emitted by a power plant or another polluter, then storing it underground,” says Mark Maslin, a professor of natural sciences at UCL.

    The Guardian reports that oil companies BP and Equinor will invest in a cluster of carbon capture and storage installations in Teesside, north-east England. Eni, an Italian oil company, is expected to develop sites in north-west England and north Wales. In each case, emissions will probably be pumped via gas pipes beneath the seabed.

    Starmer anointed “a new era” for green jobs when announcing this funding, but experts claim he is actually offering symbolic and strategic support to climate-wrecking energy sources that have dominated for centuries.

    A new error

    “This announcement represents a massive bet on a still unproven technology, and will lock the UK into fossil fuel dependence for decades to come,” Maslin says.



    Read more:
    The UK’s £22 billion bet on carbon capture will lock in fossil fuels for decades

    “The Climate Change Act mandates the UK should achieve net zero emissions by 2050, yet this will be impossible if carbon capture leads to the UK building new gas power stations instead of wind and solar farms.”

    Our ability to capture all this carbon is not guaranteed.
    DimaBerlin/Shutterstock

    Maslin was one of several scientists who wrote to energy secretary Ed Miliband criticising the plans. As he sees it, the government would not fund these projects if it did not see a future for fossil fuels beyond the middle of this century, by which time scientists have said our interference in the climate must end.

    The message is clear: expensive imports of natural gas (essentially methane, a potent greenhouse gas) are here to stay. Even successful deployment of carbon scrubbers at the point of burning this gas would not erase its climate impact, Maslin says, as it leaks at all stages of its production and use.

    But Maslin also doubts carbon capture and storage can siphon off the emissions of gas-fired power plants without adding to climate change. This is why climate scientists often describe carbon capture and storage as an unproven technology for decarbonising electricity and heavy industry: most of its applications have been in natural gas processing facilities where CO₂ is extracted for commercial uses.

    “The track record of adding carbon capture to power plants is much worse, with the vast majority of projects abandoned,” Maslin explains.

    More damning still, almost 80% of all the CO₂ captured by existing installations has been reinjected into oil fields – to pump more oil.

    Could carbon capture and storage tech turn natural gas into zero-carbon hydrogen, as some hope? Again, Maslin is dubious. Water is a cleaner source for hydrogen and using this fuel to heat homes or decarbonise factories is a second-rate solution compared with renewable electricity, he says.

    The fruits of appeasement

    Maslin and his co-signatories say that carbon capture and storage should be limited to reducing emissions from existing fossil power plants or steel furnaces while these emission sources are rapidly phased out.

    Marc Hudson at the University of Sussex is a historian of climate politics and policy in Australia, the US, UK and internationally. He has encountered policy proposals for carbon capture dating back to the 1970s and in his view, their overwhelming effect has been to prolong the use of fossil fuels by justifying investment in their expansion.



    Read more:
    Relying on carbon capture and storage may be a dangerous trap for UK industry

    “It’s the equivalent of smoking more and more cigarettes each day and gambling that a cure for cancer will exist by the time you need it,” he says.



    Read more:
    Cumbria coal mine: empty promises of carbon capture tech have excused digging up more fossil fuel for decades

    When trying to explain why rational climate policies like the mass insulation of draughty homes tends to lose out to investment in carbon capture and storage, Nils Markusson, a lecturer in environmental politics at Lancaster University, found something similar:

    “Home insulation does nothing to shield the profits of fossil fuel companies or landlords in the large and growing private rental sector,” he says.



    Read more:
    Does carbon capture and storage hype delay emissions cuts? Here’s what research shows

    In other words, appeasing the fossil fuel industry is a proviso of policies drafted to address climate change. This limitation has also infiltrated scientific assessments of the climate.

    A new report shows that “overshoot” scenarios – that is, projections of future climate change which accept the global target of 1.5°C will be at least temporarily breached – are rife in mainstream climate science.

    This is despite evidence of the permanent damage such a breach would cause – and our doubtful ability to reverse warming once it has exceeded these dangerous levels using speculative carbon removal technology.

    There is not enough land or energy to rapidly restore the carbon we have emitted.
    Oksana Bali/Shutterstock

    What has led us here? Comprehending the climate crisis and its solutions on terms favourable to the fossil fuel industry say Wim Carton and Andreas Malm, political ecologists at Lund University.

    “Avoiding climate breakdown demands that we bury the fantasy of overshoot-and-return and with it another illusion as well: that the Paris targets can be met without uprooting the status-quo.



    Read more:
    How mainstream climate science endorsed the fantasy of a global warming time machine

    “One limit after the other will be broken unless we manage to strand the necessary fossil assets and curtail opportunities for continuing to profit from oil and gas and coal.”

    – ref. Fix the climate or appease the fossil fuel industry – we can’t do both – https://theconversation.com/fix-the-climate-or-appease-the-fossil-fuel-industry-we-cant-do-both-240694

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Despite progress on poverty, Mexico’s first female president inherits a shaky economy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nicolas Forsans, Professor of Management and Co-director of the Centre for Latin American & Caribbean Studies, University of Essex

    shutterstock Octavio Hoyos/Shutterstock

    Mexico’s first female president, leftwing academic and climate scientist Claudia Sheinbaum, has set out her agenda. She pledged to maintain the social policies of her mentor and predecessor, the widely popular former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (commonly known by his initials, AMLO).

    She promised a transition to green energy, and set out the need for new infrastructure in railways, ports and airports. Sheinbaum inherits a US$1.79 trillion (£1.4 trillion) economy closely integrated to that of the US – in fact, Mexico has the second-largest economy in Latin America. It is also the most populous Spanish-speaking country in the world with 128 million people.

    But Sheinbaum also inherits Mexico’s largest budget deficit since the 1980s.

    Despite social policies that have seen 9.5 million Mexicans lifted from poverty during AMLO’s six-year term, 36% of Mexicans are still poor and 7% live in extreme poverty. Access to health services remains problematic, and has worsened for those living in deprivation.

    Gross domestic product per capita, a measure of wealth, actually fell during the previous administration, which means the “average” Mexican is worse off now than at the start of AMLO’s presidency. And next year, the central bank estimates GDP will grow by only 1.2%, which will inevitably constrain Sheinbaum in her early years in office.

    While campaigning, she promised to continue the social and political policies of her predecessor. Now in office, she will not only grapple with the country’s security situation but also navigate serious economic and fiscal challenges.



    Read more:
    As Mexico’s new president takes office, a renewed battle to contain cartel violence begins

    In 2018, AMLO took office in a relatively stable fiscal environment. His predecessor, Enrique Peña Nieto, had implemented significant reforms early in his term aimed at reducing reliance on oil revenues and energy subsidies.

    Nieto also sought to strengthen the country’s two stabilisation funds. The Oil Revenue Stabilisation Fund is aimed at protecting Mexico’s budget from fluctuations in oil revenues. Meanwhile, the Budget Income Stabilisation Fund seeks to stabilise budget revenues from non-oil sources, such as taxes.

    These funds have been crucial for maintaining economic stability given the volatility of commodity prices, especially since oil has historically been a key contributor to Mexico’s public finances. However, under AMLO’s administration, both funds were used to plug gaps, leaving them depleted and raising concerns about the country’s ability to weather economic downturns. The country has not balanced its books since 2007.

    High energy subsidies introduced in 2019 are putting a strain on public finances. Driven by a commitment by AMLO to shield consumers from rising international oil prices, subsidies increased as a result of the COVID pandemic in 2020, and again in 2022 amid the war in Ukraine.

    The recent rise in social spending to fund universal state pensions, social programmes and debt servicing has created considerable strain, pushing the deficit close to 6% of GDP. Mexico’s debt-to-GDP ratio is 50% this year, up from its 2018 level.

    The tax issue

    In most countries, tax revenues are used to fund social investment. But Mexico’s ability to raise taxes has been extremely limited – tax revenues amount to just 17% of the country’s GDP, below the Latin American average of 22%, and well below that of countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) at 34%.

    Mexico has a large informal economy, with many workers and businesses not registered with tax authorities. Corruption, inefficiencies in tax administration and lack of trust in government institutions have led to low tax compliance, while efforts to increase taxes on the wealthy have met political resistance.

    Mexico has high levels of income inequality, and the wealthiest segments of society contribute relatively little to the overall tax revenue. Instead, the country had historically relied on oil revenues – which have declined – to fund public services and investment.

    AMLO had launched popular social programmes aimed at reducing poverty and inequalities. Now Sheinbaum has promised increased social spending while maintaining “fiscal responsibility” and not reforming tax (at least in her early presidency). That promise seems unrealistic. Without a change of approach, a fiscal crisis looms.

    However, she is expected to be a more pragmatic president than her predecessor. In part because she is less ideology-driven, but also because she won’t have a choice. If she wants to boost the economy and keep reducing poverty, she will need to attract foreign investment and encourage the private sector to play a much bigger role.

    Infrastructure will be a key focus, not least to ensure Mexico can benefit from the process of “near-shoring” – the relocation by multinationals of key processes away from Asia closer to the US market in order to minimise supply chain disruptions.

    Mexico stands to gain from the current desire by many companies to operate closer to the USA. As a result of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), and its predecessor Nafta (North American Free Trade Agreement), Mexico enjoys tariff-free trade with its northern neighbours.

    But the country has not fully benefited from those opportunities. It lacks a consolidated investment promotion strategy and needs to produce more energy, ensuring it is from cleaner sources.

    It’s expected that Sheinbaum will continue government efforts to lift disadvantaged Mexicans out of poverty.

    Companies keen to invest in Mexico need access to low-emission hydrocarbons, as well as renewable energy. But AMLO viewed oil as a key part of Mexico’s sovereignty, eradicating previous reforms that had opened up the energy sector to private companies and preventing private investment in renewable energy. Instead, public finances were used to prop up ailing state-owned oil monopoly Pemex and national electricity company CFE.

    Given the fiscal challenges Sheinbaum inherits, Mexicans can expect the private sector to play a much greater role in infrastructure investment and in making the green energy transition a reality.

    As mayor of Mexico City, she championed public-private partnerships (PPP) while promoting solar energy. But to entice factories from Asia, she will also have to weaken the grip of the criminal organisations which are believed to control as much as a third of Mexico.

    During her tenure as mayor she halved the number of murders in the capital. But attempting to replicate this success throughout the country will be no small undertaking.

    Nicolas Forsans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Despite progress on poverty, Mexico’s first female president inherits a shaky economy – https://theconversation.com/despite-progress-on-poverty-mexicos-first-female-president-inherits-a-shaky-economy-240136

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Google Deepmind founder shares Nobel prize in chemistry for AI that unlocks the shape of proteins

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Matthew Addicoat, Senior Lecturer in Functional Materials, Nottingham Trent University

    The 2024 Nobel prize in chemistry has been awarded to three scientists for their work on describing and predicting proteins with the help of computers. One half of the prize goes to David Baker from the University of Washington in the US “for computational protein design”, with the other half jointly awarded to Demis Hassabis and John M. Jumper, both from Google Deepmind, UK, “for protein structure prediction”.

    Using computers to carry out protein design and for predicting protein structures are two sides of the same coin. They are separately very powerful – and combined, even more so.

    Proteins are the building blocks of life, building and powering our muscles and organs. Proteins are molecular machines: they read and copy our DNA to make new cells, and pump ions (electrically charged atoms or groups of atoms) into and out of our cells, so these always have what they need to work properly. Proteins act as sensors, detecting what’s in their environment. They also activate our immune systems.

    The molecular building blocks of proteins are amino acids. These connect, one end to another, like letters joining to form a word. Exactly like a word, scientists give a letter to each amino acid, and these can spell out any given protein.

    Just having that protein sequence – the “word” – isn’t enough, though. It’s the three-dimensional shape of the protein that determines how it works. So, if we want to make a protein for some purpose, we need a way to determine what its three-dimensional shape will be from the amino acid sequence alone. This is protein structure prediction.

    Some proteins can be prepared in such a way that their structure can be determined by X-ray, but most cannot. This is why computational structure prediction is vitally important.

    It is still an extraordinarily difficult problem. Even a small protein, of around 100 “letters” or amino acids, has an impossibly high number of possible ways it can be arranged in three dimensions. To visualise this, imagine arranging strands of cooked spaghetti in a bowl.



    Read more:
    Nobel Prize in physics spotlights key breakthroughs in AI revolution − making machines that learn

    For this reason, until the last decade, computational structure prediction had very low accuracy – less than 50%, in fact. Then, in 2020, Hassabis and Jumper developed an AI tool called AlphaFold2. This can predict the three-dimensional structure of a protein, using only the sequence of letters, with over 90% accuracy.


    Nobelprize.org, CC BY-SA

    To make such a leap in accuracy, AlphaFold2 uses deep learning and neural networks. Deep learning is a computer-based approach that simulates the way the human brain makes decisions. Neural networks mimic the human brain’s structure and function to process data.

    AlphaFold2 also makes use of massive databases of known protein structures and sequences. The neural network correlates the known three-dimensional shapes with the amino acid sequence. It can then derive rules for what shape a given sequence – the “letters” – will adopt.

    The opposite problem, computational protein design, can be summed up by the following question: “I want a protein with this three-dimensional shape; what is the sequence that gives me that shape?”

    This challenge was actually solved first. In 2003, Baker wrote a computer program called Rosetta that begins with the desired three-dimensional structure, and produces the amino acid sequence that will give that structure. It uses the idea that the three-dimensional structure of the entire protein can be built from the structures of small fragments.



    Read more:
    AI system can predict the structures of life’s molecules with stunning accuracy – helping to solve one of biology’s biggest problems

    Applying the science

    Computational protein design has many applications. Proteins have been designed to bind and inactivate viruses, to detect drugs like fentanyl, and even to degrade plastic in the environment.

    So, why has this prize been awarded for these advances now? Protein design and prediction are both inherently complex problems. There is no way to shortcut the large number of possible structures. But the rapid rise in the capabilities and use of artificial intelligence methods has given us a way to address this complexity. AI can efficiently derive correlations from millions of protein structures.

    The pace of development in AI approaches is highlighted by this year’s Nobel prize in physics, which was awarded for the development of neural networks.

    The twin methods of computational protein design and computational protein structure prediction are now real tools, used by millions of scientists worldwide. Proteins to counter pandemic viruses can now be designed in a matter of weeks.

    It therefore wouldn’t be surprising if we see many other Nobels in future being awarded for breakthroughs that use the power of artificial intelligence.

    Matthew Addicoat receives funding from EPSRC and the Royal Society.

    – ref. Google Deepmind founder shares Nobel prize in chemistry for AI that unlocks the shape of proteins – https://theconversation.com/google-deepmind-founder-shares-nobel-prize-in-chemistry-for-ai-that-unlocks-the-shape-of-proteins-240921

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How mainstream climate science endorsed the fantasy of a global warming time machine

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Wim Carton, Associate Professor of Political Ecology, Lund University

    When the Paris agreement on climate change was gavelled into being in December 2015, it briefly looked like that rarest of things: a political victory for climate activists and delegates from the poorest regions of the world that, due to colonisation by today’s wealthy nations, have contributed little to the climate crisis – but stand to suffer its worst ravages.

    The world had finally agreed an upper limit for global warming. And in a move that stunned most experts, it had embraced the stretch target of 1.5°C, the boundary that small island states, acutely threatened by sea-level rise, had tirelessly pushed for years.

    Or so, at least, it seemed. For soon, the ambitious Paris agreement limit turned out to be not much of a limit at all. When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (or IPCC, the world’s foremost body of climate experts) lent its authority to the 1.5°C temperature target with its 2018 special report, something odd transpired.

    Nearly all modelled pathways for limiting global heating to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels involved temporarily transgressing this target. Each still arrived back at 1.5°C eventually (the deadline being the random end point of 2100), but not before first shooting past it.

    Scientists responsible for modelling the response of Earth’s climate to greenhouse gas emissions – primarily caused by burning fossil fuels – called these “overshoot” scenarios. They became the dominant path along which mitigating climate change was imagined to proceed, almost as soon as talk of temperature limits emerged.

    De facto, what they said was this: staying below a temperature limit is the same as first crossing it and then, a few decades hence, using methods of removing carbon from the atmosphere to dial temperatures back down again.

    From some corners of the scientific literature came the assertion that this was nothing more than fantasy. A new study published in Nature has now confirmed this critique. It found that humanity’s ability to restore Earth’s temperature below 1.5°C of warming, after overshooting it, cannot be guaranteed. Many impacts of climate change are essentially irreversible. Those that are might take decades to undo, well beyond the relevant horizon for climate politics. For policy makers of the future, it matters little that temperatures might eventually fall back again; the impacts they will need to plan for are those of the overshoot period itself.

    Not coming back: tropical coral reefs face permanent destruction.
    Sabangvideo/Shutterstock

    The rise of overshoot ideology

    Even if global average surface temperatures are ultimately reversed, climate conditions at regional levels might not necessarily follow the global trend and might end up different from before. Delayed changes in ocean currents, for instance, could mean that the North Atlantic or Southern Ocean continue warming while the rest of the planet does not.

    Any losses and damages that accumulate during the overshoot period itself would of course be permanent. For a farmer in Sudan whose livestock perishes in a heatwave that would have been avoided at 1.5°C, it will be scant consolation to know that temperatures are scheduled to return to that level when her children have grown up.

    Then there is the dubious feasibility of planetary-scale carbon removal. Planting enough trees or energy crops to make a dent in global temperatures would require whole continents of land. Direct air capture of gigatonnes of carbon would consume prodigious amounts of renewable energy and so compete with decarbonisation. Whose land are we going to use for this? Who will shoulder the burdens for all this excess energy use?

    If reversal cannot be guaranteed, then clearly it is irresponsible to sanction a supposedly temporary overshoot of the Paris targets. And yet this is exactly what scientists have done. What compelled them to go down this dangerous route?

    Our own book on this topic (Overshoot: How the World Surrendered to Climate Breakdown, published last week by Verso) offers a history and critique of the idea.

    When overshoot scenarios were summoned into being in the early 2000s, the single most important reason was economics. Rapid, near-term emissions cuts were deemed prohibitively costly and so unpalatable. Cost optimisation mandated that they be pushed into the future to the extent possible.

    The models for projecting possible mitigation trajectories had these principles written into their code and so for the most part could not compute “low” temperature targets like 1.5 or 2°C. And because modellers could not imagine transgressing the deeply conservative constraints that they worked within, something else had to be transgressed.

    One team stumbled upon the idea that large-scale removal of carbon might be possible in the future, and so help reverse climate change. The EU and then the IPCC picked up on it, and before long, overshoot scenarios had colonised the expert literature. Deference to mainstream economics yielded a defence of the political status quo. This in turn translated into reckless experimentation with the climate system. Conservatism or fatalism about society’s capacity for change flipped into extreme adventurism about nature.

    Time to bury the time machine

    Just as the climate movement scored an important political victory, compelling the world to rally behind an ambitious temperature limit, an influential group of scientists, amplified by the world’s most authoritative scientific body on the subject, effectively helped water it down. When all is said and written about the post-Paris era, this surely should stand as one of its greatest tragedies.

    By conjuring up the fantasy of overshoot-and-return, scientists invented a mechanism for delaying climate action and unwittingly lent credibility to those (and they are many) who have no real interest in reigning in emissions here and now; who will seize on any excuse to keep the oil and gas and coal flowing just a little longer.

    A stable climate is not compatible with rising oil profits.
    Igor Hotinsky/Shutterstock

    The findings of this new paper make it perfectly clear: There is no time machine waiting in the wings. Once 1.5°C lies behind us, we must consider that threshold permanently broken.

    There then remains only one road to ambitious mitigation of climate change, and no amount of carbon dioxide removal can absolve us of its inconvenient political implications.

    Avoiding climate breakdown demands that we bury the fantasy of overshoot-and-return and with it another illusion as well: that the Paris targets can be met without uprooting the status-quo. One limit after the other will be broken unless we manage to strand fossil fuel assets and curtail opportunities for continuing to profit from oil and gas and coal.

    We will not mitigate climate change without confronting and defeating fossil fuel interests. We should expect climate scientists to be candid about this.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get our award-winning weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 35,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Wim Carton receives funding for his work on carbon removal from the Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (Formas), the Swedish Energy Agency, the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation, and the Independent Research Fund Denmark (DFF).

    Andreas Malm receives funding for his work on carbon removal from the Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (Formas).

    – ref. How mainstream climate science endorsed the fantasy of a global warming time machine – https://theconversation.com/how-mainstream-climate-science-endorsed-the-fantasy-of-a-global-warming-time-machine-225597

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ultra-processed foods: we have the technology to turn them from foe into friend

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By David Benton, Professor Emeritus (Human & Health Sciences), Medicine Health and Life Science, Swansea University

    Ultra-processed foods can be cheap, convenient and they usually taste good. PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    Ultra-processed foods are the latest nutritional villains, associated with several diseases of the modern world, from obesity to heart disease. However, many nutritionists question whether the term “ultra-processed” does any more than create confusion. It only considers the way food is produced, ignoring other important factors like calories and nutrients.

    My work suggests that instead of being viewed as the problem, ultra-processed foods could actually be part of the solution. With advances in food science, we have the technology to create low-calorie, nutritious and affordable processed foods.

    There is no consensus about how ultra-processed foods should be defined. But a common approach was proposed by the nutrition and public health scholar, Carlos Monteiro. He coined the term about 15 years ago, defining foods that undergo significant industrial processing and often contain multiple added ingredients. In Portugal, ultra-processed food make up about 10% of the average diet, whereas in Germany it’s 46%, the UK 50% and in the US 76%.

    Ultra-processed foods three major advantages – they are cheap, convenient and they usually taste good. Their affordability in particular is an important factor.

    Producing food in bulk reduces costs. For instance, the Heinz factory in Wigan is the largest baked bean factory in the world. It produces 3 million cans of baked beans a day, ensuring they are widely available and affordable.

    In 1961, scientists in Chorleywood, Hertfordshire developed a new method for making bread. Today, more than 80% of loaves in Britain are produced this way. These loaves are softer, last longer and cost less than traditional bread.

    The affordability of ultra-processed food makes them a staple for many, particularly people on lower incomes. As around 30% of children in the UK live in poverty, calls to remove such foods from diets need to address how poorer families will be able to afford fresher and more nutritious food. Current ultra-processed foods may not offer a perfect diet, but they do provide calories when money is scarce.



    Read more:
    Ultra-processed foods: here’s what the evidence actually says about them

    Convenience is another notable benefit of ultra-processed food. Preparing meals from scratch can be time-consuming, involving buying ingredients, cooking and cleaning up afterwards. Ultra-processed foods offer a shortcut, saving valuable time. This is especially important for parents trying to balance jobs and family life. For those with busy lives who are working long hours, time is a luxury that ultra-processed food can help reclaim.

    Finally, ultra-processed foods are designed to be tasty. We’re genetically inclined to be attracted to sweet and fatty foods. Having a pleasant taste is one of the reasons we select our food.

    This convenience, affordability and taste come at a cost, however, as ultra-processed foods are often high in sugar, salt and saturated fats, while lacking in fruits, vegetables and essential nutrients.

    Are all ultra-processed foods bad for us?

    It’s not always clear if it’s the “ultra-processed” nature of these foods or their high calorie and low nutrient content that causes health issues. Nutrition is more complex than just considering how food is processed. We also need to consider calories, fibre, vitamins, minerals and other essential nutrients.

    For example, while baked beans are considered ultra-processed, they’re also high in fibre – something often missing from UK diets – low in fat and calories, and a good source of plant-based protein.

    Inside the world’s largest baked bean factory in Wigan.

    Some studies suggest that many health problems linked to ultra-processed food, like obesity and diabetes, may be caused by excess calorie consumption rather than the processing itself. When people cut out ultra-processed foods, they often end up eating fewer calories, which could explain the health benefits they experience.

    The link between ultra-processed foods and poverty suggests that many of the health issues linked to ultra-processed food may be caused by factors associated with poverty itself. Poor nutrition is often just one part of a wider picture that includes limited access to healthcare, higher stress levels and fewer opportunities for physical activity – all of which can contribute to poor health.

    Can ultra-processing be used for good?

    Ultra-processing has been used to fortify foods in the UK for decades. For example, the Bread and Flour Regulations 1998 requires certain nutrients like calcium, iron, thiamine (vitamin B1) and niacin (vitamin B3) to be added to any non-wholemeal flour. This fortification plays an important role in public health, providing around 35% of calcium intake, 31% of iron and 31% of thiamine to the average UK diet. Without these added nutrients, the risk of deficiencies would rise.

    The UK government took a further step in 2022 by requiring folic acid be added to flour. It was a move aimed at preventing birth defects such as spina bifida, where a baby’s spine and spinal cord doesn’t develop properly in the womb, and anencephaly, where a baby is born without parts of the brain and skull.

    Breakfast cereals, often criticised for their sugar content, can also boost the intake of essential nutrients like vitamins B2, B12, folate and iron. Some experts would like to see mandatory food fortification be extended much further.

    Food scientists are exploring other ways to make ultra-processed foods healthier. One approach involves reducing sugar by making it taste sweeter more quickly, which means less sugar is needed to achieve the same taste.

    Another is using scientific techniques to increase the speed at which salt is released from food. Similarly, this results in it being tasted more quickly, leading to lower consumption.

    Other innovations to lower the calories in foods by changing the recipe include creating creamy, low-calorie sauces without dairy, or plant-based burgers that are virtually indistinguishable from their meat counterparts, but have fewer calories.

    These types of innovations show that ultra-processing doesn’t necessarily mean unhealthy and calorie-dense food – it’s about the choices made in production. If scientists focus on creating affordable, nutritious ultra-processed foods, they could become part of the solution to the obesity crisis, rather than the enemy.

    I have never had funding that has anything to do with ultra-processed foods. However, I have worked on other aspects of nutrition and have worked with the likes of Novartis, Danone, Yakult, Beneo and Pepisco. Much of my work has been on micro-nutrients or the glycaemic response to carbohydrate. 

    – ref. Ultra-processed foods: we have the technology to turn them from foe into friend – https://theconversation.com/ultra-processed-foods-we-have-the-technology-to-turn-them-from-foe-into-friend-239683

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kamala Harris is suddenly embracing the media spotlight – but is it working?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Colleen Murrell, Full Professor in Journalism, Dublin City University

    Kamala Harris appears to have drastically changed her media strategy for the final few weeks of the US election race. From largely avoiding media interviews, she has begun embracing them.

    The Democratic presidential candidate demonstrated she was a serious and consensus-building leader on 60 Minutes with Bill Whitaker. She told amusing anecdotes and drank a beer on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert; gave fast, snappy returns on The Howard Stern Show; and for 40 minutes talked women’s rights, domestic violence and reproductive health on the high-profile Call Her Daddy podcast.

    With less than a month to go until the presidential election, Harris is trying to hit all demographics with her media message campaign. She appeared to be most at home, or “real”, on Call her Daddy with Alex Cooper, where she talked about the lessons she’d learned from her mother, and how an abused school friend helped ignite her desire to fight for justice for the vulnerable.

    The podcast, which focuses on women’s issues, has 5 million listeners. Harris already leads the voting among women by a majority of 55% to former president Donald Trump’s 43%, according to a MaristPoll conducted last month in swing state Pennsylvania.

    More significant was the CBS 60 Minutes interview. This show, which averages 8.4 million viewers, has been a must for presidential candidates to appear on for the last half century.

    The first controversy came a week before the broadcast when Trump pulled out, with his team allegedly complaining the programme would fact-check the interview. Trump also claimed he needed an apology from CBS over disputed facts related to his 2020 interview, specifically about Hunter Biden’s laptop. No apology was forthcoming.

    The former president’s spokesperson, Steven Cheung, alleged Trump had never actually confirmed the interview, calling it “fake news”. CBS reporter Scott Pelley, who was due to do the Trump interview, was scathing about the “shifting explanations” that had been given for his no-show.

    In advance of Harris’s 60 Minutes interview, I asked Nick Bryant, author of The Forever War: America’s Unending Conflict with Itself, why he thought Trump had pulled out. “Scott Pelley is a seasoned pro,” Bryant replied. “On abortion, on January 6th, on accepting the 2020 result, he could skewer Trump. In a cost-benefit analysis, Trump has more to lose from a 60 Minutes interview than gain.”

    Harris, on the other hand, had all to gain because, despite a clear win in the debate against Trump, she has stayed at relatively low visibility. During what was a fairly tough interview, she was quizzed on America’s inability to rein in Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, how she would fund her economic policies, how her administration would handle Ukraine, and whether or not she had flip-flopped on policies about fracking, immigration and Medicare.

    The world is watching as the US election campaign unfolds. Sign up to join us at a special Conversation event on October 17. Expert panellists – Thomas Gift, Natasha Lindstaedt and Inderjeet Parmar – will discuss the upcoming election and its possible fallout.

    Her answer regarding changing policies was not to deny this, as she had previously, but to say that over the past four years of being vice-president, she had travelled the country “listening to folks and seeking what is possible in terms of common ground. I believe in building consensus.” This strong answer managed to differentiate her starkly from her opponent’s more divisive approach.

    Bryant believed that Harris’s lack of interviews before this latest round was worrying, because “she is not match fit” and her previous answers regarding the economy had been “tossed-salad like” and “strangely inarticulate”.

    This time around, it wasn’t the economy that tripped Harris up, but answers about Israel and Netanyahu. After the interview, Fox News and the Trump campaign were quick to allege that an answer on Israel broadcast in the 60 Minutes trailer was different to the answer broadcast during the programme.

    They argued that, once again, Harris had given a chaotic response in the trailer, while the answer in the programme was much more considered and neatly delivered. Trump’s national press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, asked: “Why did 60 Minutes choose not to air Kamala’s full word salad, and what else did they choose not to air?” So far, there has been no comment from 60 Minutes.

    Last-ditch swerves

    The other factor that has dogged the Harris-Walz ticket is the claim that Governor Tim Walz had inserted himself, Walter Mitty-like, into being in Beijing at the time of the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989.

    He was first asked about this during the vice-presidential debate, where he answered that he was a “knucklehead” at times who had misspoken. Pressed on this in his part of Monday’s 60 Minutes interview, Walz said that people would understand the difference between him, who “got the date wrong”, and “a pathological liar like Donald Trump”.

    Harris on 60 Minutes.

    After Trump’s disastrous performance in the September debate with Harris, he refused a second one. This can be attributed to his answers resulting in countless memes of him declaring erroneously that Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating people’s cats and dogs. Social media subsequently exploded in a similar way to Republican vice-presidential candidate J.D. Vance’s earlier claims that the country was being run by “a bunch of childless cat ladies”.

    And then Melania Trump threw a curve ball into the mix. Her autobiography, published this week, sets out her position on abortion, which conflicts with that of evangelic Republicans – a big Trump support base. “Restricting a woman’s right to choose whether to terminate an unwanted pregnancy is the same as denying her control over her own body,” she writes. “I have carried this belief with me my entire adult life”.

    In these final weeks of campaigning, with the two sides so close in the polls, the gloves seem to have come off and we can expect further spats in the media. Once again, the power of misinformation and disinformation to sow conflict will continue to unfold on social media – especially now that X’s owner Elon Musk is openly campaigning, and jumping, in support of a Trump win.

    Colleen Murrell received a grant from Ireland’s media regulator, Coimisiún na Meán, for researching and writing the Reuters Digital News Report Ireland (2020-24).

    – ref. Kamala Harris is suddenly embracing the media spotlight – but is it working? – https://theconversation.com/kamala-harris-is-suddenly-embracing-the-media-spotlight-but-is-it-working-240262

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –