Category: Academic Analysis

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Brian J. Yanites, Associate Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Science. Robert Shrock Professor of Surficial and Sedimentary Geology, Indiana University

Hurricane Helene lasted only a few days in September 2024, but it altered the landscape of the Southeastern U.S. in profound ways that will affect the hazards local residents face far into the future.

Mudslides buried roads and reshaped river channels. Uprooted trees left soil on hillslopes exposed to the elements. Sediment that washed into rivers changed how water flows through the landscape, leaving some areas more prone to flooding and erosion.

Helene was a powerful reminder that natural hazards don’t disappear when the skies clear – they evolve.

These transformations are part of what scientists call cascading hazards. They occur when one natural event alters the landscape in ways that lead to future hazards. A landslide triggered by a storm might clog a river, leading to downstream flooding months or years later. A wildfire can alter the soil and vegetation, setting the stage for debris flows with the next rainstorm.

I study these disasters as a geomorphologist. In a new paper in the journal Science, I and a team of scientists from 18 universities and the U.S. Geological Survey explain why hazard models – used to help communities prepare for disasters – can’t just rely on the past. Instead, they need to be nimble enough to forecast how hazards evolve in real time.

The science behind cascading hazards

Cascading hazards aren’t random. They emerge from physical processes that operate continuously across the landscape – sediment movement, weathering, erosion. Together, the atmosphere, biosphere and the earth are constantly reshaping the conditions that cause natural disasters.

For instance, earthquakes fracture rock and shake loose soil. Even if landslides don’t occur during the quake itself, the ground may be weakened, leaving it primed for failure during later rainstorms.

That’s exactly what happened after the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, which led to a surge in debris flows long after the initial seismic event.

Earth’s surface retains a “memory” of these events. Sediment disturbed in an earthquake, wildfire or severe storm will move downslope over years or even decades, reshaping the landscape as it goes.

The 1950 Assam earthquake in India is a striking example: It triggered thousands of landslides. The sediment from these landslides gradually moved through the river system, eventually causing flooding and changing river channels in Bangladesh some 20 years later.

An intensifying threat in a changing world

These risks present challenges for everything from emergency planning to home insurance. After repeated wildfire-mudslide combinations in California, some insurers pulled out of the state entirely, citing mounting risks and rising costs among the reasons.

Cascading hazards are not new, but their impact is intensifying.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires, storms and extreme rainfall. At the same time, urban development continues to expand into steep, hazard-prone terrain, exposing more people and infrastructure to evolving risks.

The rising risk of interconnected climate disasters like these is overwhelming systems built for isolated events.

Yet climate change is only part of the equation. Earth processes – such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions – also trigger cascading hazards, often with long-lasting effects.

Mount St. Helens is a powerful example: More than four decades after its eruption in 1980, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to manage ash and sediment from the eruption to keep it from filling river channels in ways that could increase the flood risk in downstream communities.

Rethinking risk and building resilience

Traditionally, insurance companies and disaster managers have estimated hazard risk by looking at past events.

But when the landscape has changed, the past may no longer be a reliable guide to the future. To address this, computer models based on the physics of how these events work are needed to help forecast hazard evolution in real time, much like weather models update with new atmospheric data.

Thanks to advances in Earth observation technology, such as satellite imagery, drone and lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, scientists can now track how hillslopes, rivers and vegetation change after disasters. These observations can feed into geomorphic models that simulate how loosened sediment moves and where hazards are likely to emerge next.

Researchers are already coupling weather forecasts with post-wildfire debris flow models. Other models simulate how sediment pulses travel through river networks.

Cascading hazards reveal that Earth’s surface is not a passive backdrop, but an active, evolving system. Each event reshapes the stage for the next.

Understanding these connections is critical for building resilience so communities can withstand future storms, earthquakes and the problems created by debris flows. Better forecasts can inform building codes, guide infrastructure design and improve how risk is priced and managed. They can help communities anticipate long-term threats and adapt before the next disaster strikes.

Most importantly, they challenge everyone to think beyond the immediate aftermath of a disaster – and to recognize the slow, quiet transformations that build toward the next.

Brian J. Yanites receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

– ref. Disasters don’t disappear when the storm ends – cascading hazards, from landslides to floods, are upending risk models – https://theconversation.com/disasters-dont-disappear-when-the-storm-ends-cascading-hazards-from-landslides-to-floods-are-upending-risk-models-259502

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Stéphane Leman-Langlois, Professor, School of Social Work and Criminology, Université Laval

The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) is making headlines. But not, as they probably hoped, for the renewed recruiting efforts they’re about to launch. Instead, they are once again confounded by a far-right scandal.

The latest episode is the arrest of four CAF members and ex-members. Three of them have been charged with taking concrete steps to facilitate terrorist activity and possessing prohibited firearms. A fourth man was charged with possession and storage of prohibited firearms and devices.

The crew had allegedly been under surveillance by the federal government’s Integrated National Security Enforcement Team since 2021, most likely when equipment, weapons and ammunition began to go missing from military installations. The weapons were finally seized in January 2024, some in the personal vehicle of one of the suspects, but the group remained free for another 18 months.

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Read more:
Charges against Canadian Army members in anti-government terror plot raise alarms about right-wing extremism

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As is usual with these types of efforts, a certain degree of amateurism was present at multiple stages of the alleged scheme, which may have developed on the fly. The idea that a micro-militia might successfully seize and hold territory in Canada is far-fetched at best.

Recruitment efforts for the suspected mission, complete with propaganda and self-aggrandizing pictures of military training, took place on, you guessed it: Instagram. (We won’t publish the name of the account.)

It might be pointed out that any large organization like the CAF inevitably represents a microcosm of society, meaning that it can’t be expected to be free of various forms of undesirable behaviour, including political extremism. But this “rotten apple” theory of far-right extremism in the CAF falls somewhat short of explaining the situation.

Not just a ‘few rotten apples’

First, the rotten apples seem too numerous. Just days before the recent arrests, the CAF announced on July 3 it was investigating the participation of other soldiers in a private Facebook page named the “Blue Hackle Mafia.” The page disseminated openly racist, homophobic, misogynist and antisemitic content.

These events point to a phenomenon difficult to measure within western countries, even though it’s very real. The penetration of ideas associated with the far right within the military and law enforcement agencies is currently happening. Whether more or less structured, the emergence of underground small groups are more or less ready to “take action.”

Second, previous reports have identified a general laissez-faire approach within the CAF regarding far-right activities. In a 2022 independent report commissioned by the CAF, the presence of white supremacist and other far-right ideologies was identified not only as a growing problem for the Army, but also one that was not being addressed.

Similar conclusions were reached in the 1997 report on the behaviour of Canadian soldiers in Somalia, which had explicitly recommended that “the Canadian Forces establish regular liaison with anti-racist groups to obtain assistance in the conduct of appropriate cultural sensitivity training and to assist supervisors and commanders in identifying signs of racism and involvement with hate groups.” In other words, neither the concern nor the awareness is news.

Affinity between far right and military

At the root of the problem is a peculiar affinity between most forms of far-right ideologies and military or paramilitary/policing organizations.

It’s absurd to simply paint such organizations as inherently far right in their nature, of course. But strict authority structures and notions of defence, fellowship, honour — as well as the projection of power through physical strength and training and the accompanying symbolism of weapons, fatigues, uniforms and campaign-like deployments — are all very appealing to far-right extremists.

This nexus has been amply documented and leads to multiple practical implications: extremist groups trying to recruit active or retired soldiers; soldiers joining existing groups or setting up their own; veterans joining existing groups or creating their own, like the founders of Québec’s La Meute; professionally trained lone wolves, like Correy Hurren, who attempted to “arrest” Prime minister Justin Trudeau at Rideau Hall in 2020)

Members of extremist groups also routinely try to join the military to benefit from training, which elevates their standing within the group.

Military, former and active, and law enforcement members are to be found in multiple “militia” groups like the Three Percenters, the Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers, Diagolon and the Boogaloo movement, for instance. Some are overtly anti-government and/or anti-system, like the Veterans 4 Freedom or The Base.

Far-right demons

It may sound strange to think of military personnel or veterans getting involved or creating an anti-government movement when they’ve served under the flag sometimes for decades. The apparent paradox quickly disappears once we understand the manifold individual motivations that underpin their actions.

They range from the feeling of having served a timourous government that failed to make proper use of the Armed Forces at its disposal. The absence of deployments to theatres of conflict also generates frustration among some in search of military adventure.

A lot of young men are quickly bored with exercises that never satisfy their expeditionary spirit. The role of camaraderie, of group dynamics based on mutual aid, honour and the presence of danger, as well as mental health issues, must not be overlooked. Not to mention the idea, strong in some units, of defending a singular idea of a “fatherland” endangered by government contempt and inaction.

What is striking in the light of the recent charges in Québec is not so much the racist and anti-semitic ideological ideas allegedly held by the accused group members. It’s the primacy given to a patriarchal ideology that explicitly targets women and gender. Fascination with Russia and the war in Ukraine waged by Vladimir Putin is also palpable.

In short, the CAF is still wrestling with far-right demons, though in a new context of social media acceleration and global loss of confidence in democratic institutions. The situation has a high potential to undermine confidence in Canada’s Armed Forces at a time when geopolitical tensions are calling for a strengthening of its military arsenal, and first and foremost, our military human capital.

Stéphane Leman-Langlois receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

Samuel Tanner receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

Aurélie Campana does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Not just a few bad apples: The Canadian Armed Forces has a nagging far-right problem – https://theconversation.com/not-just-a-few-bad-apples-the-canadian-armed-forces-has-a-nagging-far-right-problem-260896

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Caroline Pukall, Professor, Department of Psychology, Queen’s University, Ontario

The orgasm gap — the consistent finding that men who have sex with women have more frequent orgasms than women who have sex with men — has been shown in study after study of cisgender, heterosexual participants.

The gap is a big one: Based on a recent Canadian study, approximately 60 per cent of women and 90 per cent of men reported reaching orgasm in their most recent sexual encounter.

In sexually diverse samples (samples that also include women who have sex with women and men who have sex with men), the pattern becomes more nuanced but still supports a gendered orgasm gap.

Research has shown that the gap in orgasm frequency is reduced (in other words, there is more equal orgasm frequency) in women who have sex with women (about 75 per cent), and this rate is significantly higher than in women who have sex with men (about 62 per cent). However, men as a group — regardless of who they were having sex with — still had significantly higher orgasm frequency (85 per cent) than women overall (63 per cent). Women are orgasm-disadvantaged overall and especially when they have sex with men.

Mind the gap

How far-reaching is the orgasm gap and what factors might be standing in the way of orgasms for all? We — a team of researchers and science journalists from the podcast Science Vs — examined orgasm frequency in a large diverse sample that included sexual (such as lesbian) and gender (such as trans) minorities and majorities, as well as racialized participants (there were no significant results with analyses focused on sexual orientation or race).

The good news? We found that many people overall were having lots of orgasms — about two-thirds reported having orgasms almost or every time they engaged sexually.

The not-so-great news? The orgasm gap persisted: cis men overall reported the highest orgasm frequency compared to women and gender minorities (who did not differ significantly from each other). In addition, we found that participants of all genders who engaged sexually with women reported significantly more frequent orgasms than those who engaged sexually with men. So being partnered with a woman is associated with an orgasm advantage.

More not-so-great news was that about 17 per cent of participants reported almost never or never having orgasms during sex and that there were many factors preventing orgasms in participants. For cis women, psychological barriers — such as insecurities, mental health struggles and distractions — were prominent, as were sexual obstacles (like not receiving adequate stimulation), difficulties inherent in having orgasms (for example, they take too long and require too much effort) and not knowing why orgasms are difficult for them to have.

Closing the gap

So why does the orgasm gap exist and persist? One main reason is that broad sociocultural norms prioritize men’s sexual pleasure over women’s. Indeed, these norms develop from the traditional (heterosexual, western) sexual script that defines the end of sexual activity as male orgasm; importantly, women’s adherence to this script has been associated with lower sexual satisfaction.

Another is that mainstream media feeds into narratives of sexual expectations based on gender, such that portrayals of women who do not have orgasms are much more — even readily — acceptable than portrayals of orgasmless men. This inequality is played out in sexual encounters, perpetuating the gap and contributing to complacency in addressing it.

But there is hope: Heterosexual men’s motivation to bring their partner to orgasm and their intentional incorporation of sexual activities that increase the chance of orgasm for their partner — such as clitoral stimulation and oral sex — can help narrow (and even eradicate!) the gap. Women’s own degree of familiarity with their partner has also been shown to be help narrow the gap. Higher familiarity (think of a long-term situationship as opposed to a casual hookup) was associated with higher orgasm frequency.

The simple act of prioritizing women’s orgasm — captured with an easy-to-remember phrase of “she comes first” — may be all that is needed to substantially narrow the orgasm gap.

Caroline Pukall receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the International Society for the Study of Women’s Sexual Health, and Queen’s University.

– ref. Want more orgasms? Choose a woman partner – https://theconversation.com/want-more-orgasms-choose-a-woman-partner-259655

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Andy Hira, Professor of Political Science, Simon Fraser University

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has made establishing east-west energy corridors a priority for Canada. He suggested that such corridors would include new oil and natural gas pipelines, designed to reduce dependence on the United States.

Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson has gone even further in pushing for subsidization of carbon capture and storage projects that would effectively underwrite the long-term continuation of the fossil fuel industry at taxpayer expense.

While there might be short-term political reasons for backing fossil fuels, such an approach goes against Canada’s long-term interests. Prioritizing fossil fuels undermines the country’s commitments to reduce emissions and takes away the investment needed for it to realize its potential to become a green energy superpower.

Creating energy corridors is in the national interest, and would allow Canada to take full advantage of its abundant and diverse energy and mineral resources. The government also needs to be involved, as the corridors are interprovincial and will require substantial investment. However, the government has limited resources and so Canada must think strategically about its priorities for such corridors.

Canadian taxpayers should not be subsidizing an already lucrative oil and gas industry. Instead, the federal government should prioritize funding clean energy supply solutions.

Oil and gas subsidies

Canadian governments have long faced opposition to building new pipelines. The provinces of Québec and British Columbia and many First Nations have strongly opposed new pipeline proposals. More recently, there is some signs of softening under the duress of U.S. tariffs.

Even if such shifts are lasting, it’s for the private sector to step up and invest into these projects. Previous federal investments, such as the Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX), were reflections of the private market’s unwillingness to invest in pipelines because they are bad investments. The 2024 Parliamentary Budget Office report estimated that selling the TMX would result in a loss.

There are reasons to question the soundness of fossil fuels on a purely financial basis. A 2022 Parliamentary budget office report found that climate change reduced GDP by 0.8 per cent in 2021, or around $20 billion. This number is expected to rise to 5.8 per cent per year by 2100 (or $145 billion in 2021 dollars).

By contrast, from 2017 to 2021, federal, provincial and territorial governments received an average of $12 billion annually in revenues from the the oil and gas industry.

The gap between the costs and benefits is only going to increase over time. The costs cut across all aspects of life, including food security, health care, global instability and threats to coastal cities due to sea level rise.

On the other hand, every dollar invested in adaptation today has an estimated return of $13-$15.

Furthermore, a recent study indicates a likely glut in global natural gas markets, and the future prospects for oil are equally questionable. For example, one of Canada’s target markets, Japan, has been reselling its liquefied natural gas imports to other countries, suggesting the glut of oil and gas is likely to continue as cheaper producers, including those in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, who are cheaper and closer to consumers, flood the market.

Cheaper and closer oil producers are also flooding markets in anticipation of declining prices.

There are important opportunity costs of investing money in fossil fuels that could otherwise be invested in the clean energy economy. When new technologies arise, there is a limited window of opportunity for global competitors to enter into an emerging industry.

In light of the shift to electric vehicles, heat pumps and artificial intelligence, it’s clear that energy demand is bound to increase significantly in Canada in the coming years. Canada can become a global competitor, but only if it enters the race now, while the window is open.

An East-West clean energy system

Solar and wind prices have declined by 83 per cent and 65 per cent respectively since 2009. However, they suffer from the fundamental issue of intermittency; the sun is not always shining and the wind isn’t always blowing.

While battery prices are declining, they remain an expensive solution. An easier solution is at hand: Canada’s hydroelectric resources. Québec, B.C. and Manitoba have abundant hydro resources that can reduce energy costs throughout the rest of the country.

Alberta and Saskatchewan have potential for significant geothermal power generation. Ontario and the Atlantic provinces could contribute wind and solar. Trading electricity through an integrated national grid increases the investment capital and reduces the need for batteries while diversifying the energy mix.

But we need an east-west electricity market to make this happen.

An east-west grid would reduce the need for every province to run its own power generation system. Creating a pooled market would allow provinces to trade electricity, giving consumers more choice and investors a larger market and potential return on their investment.

More valuable still is the fact that electricity capacity has to be built for the few peak hours and seasons. But most of the time demand is well below full capacity, such as the middle of the night or early summer, when neither heat nor air conditioning is needed in many areas. As peak times and seasons vary across the country, Canada can reduce overall costs by trading the electricity in the lowest cost producing province at a given time to where it’s needed in the other.

By locating some of the new clean energy in First Nations, Canada can also move reconciliation forward. There is potential for a win-win situation whereby Canada increases renewable energy generation while creating new jobs and income for First Nations wherever feasible.

The first step is for regulatory reform across the provinces to support a Canada-wide electricity market, and to provide the funding for the massive infrastructure investment required to connect provincial grids. This would be a federal investment with incredible long-term payoffs for employment, taxpayers and future generations.

Following this plan could truly make Canada an energy superpower on the right side of the energy transition, create thousands of jobs and give the country a global competitive edge — all while helping to save the planet in the process.

This article was co-authored by energy consultant Sheldon Fernandes.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Canada’s proposed east-west energy corridors should prioritize clean energy – https://theconversation.com/canadas-proposed-east-west-energy-corridors-should-prioritize-clean-energy-259530

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Colombe Nirina Sehenomalala, PhD candidate, Anthropology, Université de Montréal

Most people’s encounters with lemurs have occurred through their representations in popular children’s media, like Zoboomafoo or Madagascar. However, most people don’t know that lemurs play an important role in forest renewal and that they’re currently in grave danger from climate change.

In my home country of Madagascar, there is an amazing array of creatures that are not found anywhere else in the world. Madagascar is a biodiversity hotspot, and approximately 90 per cent of plant and animal species on this island are endemic.

Among them are lemurs, a group of primates that are not only the flagship symbols of the island’s fauna, but also one of the key players in the health and stability of Madagascar’s ecosystems because they do the very important work of dispersing seeds.

I am a primatologist who researches the interactions between infant-and-mother lemur dyads in wild. Their bond is a reminder of what we stand to lose, as it shows care, learning and viability. When forests disappear, so does this fragile bond, and a whole way of life we can never replace.

Lemurs’ habitats and survival are increasingly being threatened by human activities such as deforestation, forest resource exploitation and hunting. There is an urgent need for conservation projects that involve local communities in preserving Madagascar’s unique biodiversity.

Charismatic animals

Due to their charisma, media attention and their biological significance, lemurs attract tourists and researchers to Madagascar. The viability of lemurs is essential to the island’s future, both economically but especially in terms of protecting biodiversity. As they eat fruits from trees like ebony, mammea and wild coffee and then scatter seeds through their droppings, they help new plants grow.

Among the 105 lemur species of Madagascar, Propithecus candidus, commonly known as the silky sifaka, is one of the most endangered species. Only around 250 of them are currently living in the wild.

As their name implies, silky sifakas have visually striking long white hair, and they can only be found in the misty, mountainous rainforests of northeastern Madagascar.

Silky sifakas are primarily active during the daytime, and can travel very quickly through the trees by vertically clinging to them and leaping from tree to tree using their powerful legs. They have highly specialized diets consisting of leaves, flowers and fruits like Diospyros pervilleana, a native ebony species from Madagascar.

Observing mothers and infants

I have spent 10 years studying and following lemurs daily. During my fieldwork in northeastern Madagascar, I closely observed how deforestation and habitat fragmentation affect silky sifaka females and their young.

I studied these females during their lactation season in three different forest contexts: Marojejy National Park (a mostly untouched primary rainforest), Makira Natural Park (a mix of old-growth and re-generating forest) and Anjanaharibe-Sud Special Reserve (known as COMATSA-Sud, a primary forest with heavily degraded areas).

At each forest, the forest canopy, which provides both shelter and food for the lemurs, measured above 10 metres at all sites, but was semi-open, which is a sign of habitat degradation. A semi-open canopy allows more light to permeate the forest canopy, but it also exposes animals to predators and decreases the quantity of high-quality food.

Mothers’ movements and behaviours

One clear difference between the three sites is how mother–infant pairs move and use space. In Marojejy, where the forest is more continuous even if the canopy is partly open, mothers and babies stay within fairly fixed areas, following the same paths and resting spots.

But in places like Makira and COMATSA-Sud, where the forest is broken up into separate patches, mothers have to travel farther and more unpredictably, moving between these isolated patches. This extra travelling causes them to burn more energy and face higher risks from predators and hunters.

These differences show that fragmentation doesn’t just affect food availability, but also changes how these lemurs move and survive.

Forest fragmentation affects lemurs’ social behaviour and grouping patterns to deal with low food availability. It also impacts their health and development; a poor diet causes malnourishment in the lemurs.

Poor nutritional quality

While the food availability for silky sifakas in northeastern Madagascar during the lactation season is relatively abundant, it is of low nutritional quality.

This leads to increased stress and competition as dominant lactating females, desperate to feed their infants, attack subordinates to accumulate more nutrients to produce higher quality milk.

As offspring start to feed on non-milk foods, the poor nutritional quality of available plants after weaning can lead to poor health and stunted growth.

Engaging the community

The decline of lemur populations, particularly silky sifakas, shows the need for urgent conservation action. Continued monitoring — as well as sustained support and funding for Malagasy scientists — is crucial for long-term lemur and biodiversity conservation.

When it comes to the effects of human activity, this decline — habitat fragmentation, global climate change and deforestation — is the result of large-scale activites such as extraction, tourism and state infrastructural development.

Education and awareness campaigns are crucial, both in Madagascar and internationally, to inform people about lemurs’ habitat needs and what can be done to prevent their extinction.

Conservation will never be successful without building an appreciation of the environmental, cultural and economic value of lemurs and the forests they inhabit.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Lemurs can help save Madagascan forests, but first we need to protect them – https://theconversation.com/lemurs-can-help-save-madagascan-forests-but-first-we-need-to-protect-them-256300

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Johann van Niekerk, Doctor, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of South Africa

Have you ever wondered how wild birds cope with baking hot afternoons and freezing cold mornings? Our new study has taken a close look at one of Africa’s most familiar birds – the helmeted guineafowl – and uncovered surprising answers about how they deal with extreme temperatures.

The helmeted guineafowl (Numida meleagris) is a common sight across sub-Saharan Africa’s savannas and semi-arid regions. They are instantly recognisable with their spotted plumage, bony helmet, bare blue head, and loud cackling calls. These birds are famously social, often seen roaming in noisy flocks.

Helmeted guineafowl can endure air temperatures from -4°C up to 40°C in South Africa.

The idea that animals huddle to stay warm – known as social thermoregulation – is well documented in mammals and birds like penguins. This theory proposes that animals huddle together to conserve heat in cold conditions, but is this what guineafowl are doing?

Together with colleagues in Spain, we set out to find the answer because understanding whether birds group to keep warm or for other reasons helps ecologists uncover the true drivers of social behaviour. This can also inform how species will respond to changing climates and help guide conservation strategies.

We studied a wild population of guineafowl in South Africa’s Madikwe Game Reserve, a protected area near the Botswana border. It’s known for its sharp daily temperature fluctuations during winter, with cold, frosty mornings dropping to 0°C and sweltering afternoons reaching up to 40°C.

To spy on the birds without disturbing them, we set up a live-streaming webcam at a busy waterhole, recording their behaviour over an entire year. We watched how group size, body posture and daily routines shifted with the seasons and weather.

What we found was striking.

Our study challenges some common assumptions about how animals survive in extreme climates. Guineafowl don’t rely on cuddling for warmth like some penguins and some species of monkeys. Rather, they use behaviour – adjusting posture, timing their activity and changing group sizes according to food and safety needs – to navigate life’s temperature extremes.

This strategy may help them cope with the growing unpredictability of climate.

When they get together, it’s to exploit a food patch and nurture their offspring within close-knit social groups while foraging, or to fend off predators during coordinated mobbing behaviour.

What we found

The evidence we gathered shows that the guineafowl did not form bigger groups when temperatures dropped. There was no evidence they huddled together to stay warm. Even at night, when they roosted in trees, they perched in small family units – just two or three birds per branch.

Our findings suggest that the reason guineafowl form groups has more to do with food and safety.

During the dry winter months, when seeds and vegetation are scarce, the birds form large foraging flocks to help find food and stay safe from predators. More eyes mean better chances of spotting danger. This supports the widely recognised “many eyes” hypothesis, which shows that individuals in larger groups benefit from improved predator detection. But once the rains return and food becomes more plentiful and spread out, the guineafowl split into pairs or small groups to focus on breeding.

While group size wasn’t tied to temperature, the birds used clever body postures to handle both heat and cold. On chilly mornings below 17°C, they puffed out their collar feathers and tucked their bare necks deep into their bodies, creating a rounded, fluffy ball that trapped heat.

On warmer days, they stood tall with their necks fully extended, legs exposed, and feathers sleek to release excess heat. When temperatures soared above 30°C, they opened their beaks to pant, spread their wings slightly away from their bodies, and exposed bare skin to cool off, much as a dog pants on a hot day.

One of the most delightful behaviours observed was “sunning”. On frosty winter mornings, guineafowl would fly down from their roosts and stand facing the rising sun, fluffing their feathers and soaking up warmth before starting their day. It’s a simple, effective way to heat up after a cold night.

Another surprise was how rarely the birds drank water. Despite living in a dry environment, only about 2% of observed guineafowl visits were to the waterhole. In wet seasons, they likely get most of their moisture from eating green plants and insects. In the cold, dry season, when food is drier, drinking increased slightly, but still far less than expected.

They drank even less when it was both hot and windy, possibly because the noise of the wind makes it harder to detect predators when standing out in the open. Avoiding water during hot periods is usual among helmeted guineafowl, which typically avoid exposing themselves during peak heat due to increased predation risk and the physiological stress of extreme temperatures. Most galliforms (gamebirds) and terrestrial species favour early morning or late afternoon activity patterns, limiting mid-day exposure.

Every evening, the flock gathered at the same familiar “launching pad” near the waterhole and flew into nearby trees to roost. But once again, warmth wasn’t the reason for this behaviour. They roosted to avoid ground predators, not to share body heat. I have seen them for many years going into trees when predators or dogs chase them, unlike spurfowl and francolin just flying further on.

Why insights are useful

This research carries important lessons for understanding animal adaptation. Rather than relying on group warmth, guineafowl show how behavioural flexibility, adjusting posture, timing and habitat use, can buffer them against harsh conditions. It highlights how survival depends not just on temperature or water availability, but on having access to diverse habitat types: open grasslands for foraging and trees or dense bush for roosting and safety.

As climates shift and ecosystems change, understanding how animals like guineafowl cope with extremes will be crucial for conservation planning.

Johann van Niekerk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Guineafowl can outsmart extreme temperatures: we spent a year finding out how – https://theconversation.com/guineafowl-can-outsmart-extreme-temperatures-we-spent-a-year-finding-out-how-260439

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – Indonesia – By Adrian Perkasa, Peneliti Pascadoktoral, Royal Netherlands Institute of Southeast Asian and Caribbean Studies

Indonesia’s plan to rewrite its official national history was initially met with positive responses, particularly for its goal of better serving the younger generation. But the project to reshape the country’s mainstream historical narrative soon ignited widespread controversy for overlooking underrepresented groups and reinforcing authoritarian tendencies.

By incorporating the latest data and expanding the coverage of historical events and figures, the initiative — launched by the Indonesian Historian Association (MSI) and backed by the Culture Ministry on May 2025 — raised hopes for a more inclusive, accurate, and relevant national history.

However, backlash soon followed, with criticism intensifying after Culture Minister Fadli Zon’s controversial statement) dismissing the 1998 mass rapes as mere rumours.

Various groups argue that the rewriting of national history is a calculated move to bolster an increasingly authoritarian government, as it relies solely on scholars and historians with ties to those in power.

Many groups remain underrepresented

A nation’s relationship with its history is deeply tied to how contemporary narratives are constructed or shaped. For national historiography to carry legitimacy, it must meaningfully include the voices of diverse groups, classes, communities, and entities.

However, the project’s terms of reference fail to give due attention to space for women’s roles in the Indonesian independence movement].

Its treatment of historical narratives from regions beyond Java also remains insufficient — let alone its neglect of non-political and non-economic themes, such as the arts or sports.

Silent affirmation?

In response to the controversy, few formal statements have been made from either MSI or the historians involved in the project, apart from the minister and the project’s principal editor.

One notable exception came from a historian via his social media page, where he reflected on the dilemma of being both an intellectual and a public servant involved in the project.

He argued that speaking from within, rather than criticising from the outside, demands greater courage and careful calculation – a stance he fears is likely to be overlooked.

As a history-and-culture researcher, his remarks reinforce the perception that many of the historians involved in the revision project are civil servants at state universities or individuals closely aligned with those in power.

Lessons from the past

History itself tells us that the writing of national history is deeply intertwined with the interests of ruling authorities and their affiliated groups.

From its inception, the genre of national history that emerged in 19th-century Europe and the United States was closely tied to efforts to legitimise territorial expansion and colonial rule.

In the context of Indonesia’s current national history revision project, it is worth revisiting comparisons between how national histories were written under Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines and Suharto in Indonesia.

Historians in both countries should be recognised as active agents with their own interests and authority — not as passive participants or easily influenced figures.

During Suharto’s regime, one historian even withdrew from the state-led national history writing project due to disagreements, particularly over methodological approaches.

The project’s director marginalised historian Sartono Kartodirdjo — who championed a multidimensional approach — in favour of a more linear, state-centric narrative. Sartono’s more holistic perspective made space for a broader range of historical actors, including farmers and other often-overlooked communities.

A similar precedent can be traced back to the early years of Indonesian independence, when the government initiated efforts to document the country’s national history in the 1950s. At the time, the National History Writing Committee — comprising prominent scholars — organised Indonesia’s first National History Seminar.

Yet the initiative failed to produce an official national history, partly due to the same kind of unresolved methodological debates that resurfaced during Suharto’s rule.

A project for whom?

Marcus Tullius Cicero, the Roman philosopher-turned-statesman, once said, historia magistra vitae est – history is the teacher of life.

Given the failures and controversies surrounding Indonesia’s earlier attempt to produce an official national history, the current revision project demands critical re-evaluation — and, if necessary, a complete halt.

Merely involving more historians to boost representation is not an adequate solution either.

The core issue lies not in revising history, but in advancing Indonesian historiography. Rather than pushing ahead with an extensive national history rewrite, the government should prioritise fostering diverse local history initiatives — through programmes such as the Cultural Endowment Fund or the Indonesiana Fund.

This approach would enable a more comprehensive and representative account of Indonesian history — one that integrates local perspectives while remaining connected to national and global narratives.

Saya pernah dan masih berkolaborasi untuk riset dengan beberapa lembaga di lingkungan Kementerian Kebudayaan seperti Museum dan Cagar Budaya Nasional, Balai Pelestarian Kebudayaan, dan lainnya.

– ref. Indonesia plans to rewrite its national history: A return to an incomplete narrative? – https://theconversation.com/indonesia-plans-to-rewrite-its-national-history-a-return-to-an-incomplete-narrative-260298

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Jeremy Porter, Professor of Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences, City University of New York

Destructive flash flooding in Texas and other states is raising questions about the nation’s flood maps and their ability to ensure that communities and homeowners can prepare for rising risks.

The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency’s flood maps are intended to be the nation’s primary tool for identifying flood risks.

Originally developed in the 1970s to support the National Flood Insurance Program, these maps, known as Flood Insurance Rate Maps, or FIRMs, are used to determine where flood insurance is required for federally backed mortgages, to inform local building codes and land-use decisions, and to guide flood plain management strategies.

In theory, the maps enable homeowners, businesses and local officials to understand their flood risk and take appropriate steps to prepare and mitigate potential losses.

But while FEMA has improved the accuracy and accessibility of the maps over time with better data, digital tools and community input, the maps still don’t capture everything – including the changing climate. There are areas of the country that flood, some regularly, that don’t show up on the maps as at risk.

I study flood-risk mapping as a university-based researcher and at First Street, an organization created to quantify and communicate climate risk. In a 2023 assessment using newly modeled flood zones with climate-adjusted precipitation records, we found that more than twice as many properties across the country were at risk of a 100-year flood than the FEMA maps identified.

Even in places where the FEMA maps identified a flood risk, we found that the federal mapping process, its overreliance on historical data, and political influence over the updating of maps can lead to maps that don’t fully represent an area’s risk.

What FEMA flood maps miss

FEMA’s maps are essential tools for identifying flood risks, but they have significant gaps that limit their effectiveness.

One major limitation is that they don’t consider flooding driven by intense bursts of rain. The maps primarily focus on river channels and coastal flooding, largely excluding the risk of flash flooding, particularly along smaller waterways such as streams, creeks and tributaries.

This limitation has become more important in recent years due to climate change. Rising global temperatures can result in more frequent extreme downpours, leaving more areas vulnerable to flooding, yet unmapped by FEMA.

For example, when flooding from Hurricane Helene hit unmapped areas around Asheville, North Carolina, in 2024, it caused a huge amount of uninsured damage to properties.

Even in areas that are mapped, like the Camp Mystic site in Kerr County, Texas, that was hit by a deadly flash flood on July 4, 2025, the maps may underestimate their risk because of a reliance on historic data and outdated risk assessments.

Political influence can fuel long delays

Additionally, FEMA’s mapping process is often shaped by political pressures.

Local governments and developers sometimes fight to avoid high-risk designations to avoid insurance mandates or restrictions on development, leading to maps that may understate actual risks and leave residents unaware of their true exposure.

An example is New York City’s appeal of a 2015 FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps update. The delay in resolving the city’s concerns has left it with maps that are roughly 20 years old, and the current mapping project is tied up in legal red tape.

On average, it takes five to seven years to develop and implement a new FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. As a result, many maps across the U.S. are significantly out of date, often failing to reflect current land use, urban development or evolving flood risks from extreme weather.

This delay directly affects building codes and infrastructure planning, as local governments rely on these maps to guide construction standards, development approvals and flood mitigation projects. Ultimately, outdated maps can lead to underestimating flood risks and allowing vulnerable structures to be built in areas that face growing flood threats.

How technology advances can help

New advances in satellite imaging, rainfall modeling and high-resolution lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, make it possible to create faster, more accurate flood maps that capture risks from extreme rainfall and flash flooding.

However, fully integrating these tools requires significant federal investment. Congress controls FEMA’s mapping budget and sets the legal framework for how maps are created. For years, updating the flood maps has been an unpopular topic among many publicly elected officials, because new flood designations can trigger stricter building codes, higher insurance costs and development restrictions.

In recent years, the rise of climate risk analytics models and private flood risk data have allowed the real estate, finance and insurance industries to rely less on FEMA’s maps. These new models incorporate forward-looking climate data, including projections of extreme rainfall, sea-level rise and changing storm patterns – factors FEMA’s maps generally exclude.

Real estate portals like Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com and Homes.com now provide property-level flood risk scores that consider both historical flooding and future climate projections. The models they use identify risks for many properties that FEMA maps don’t, highlighting hidden vulnerabilities in communities across the United States.

Research shows that the availability, and accessibility, of climate data on these sites has started driving property-buying decisions that increasingly take climate change into account.

Implications for the future

As homebuyers understand more about a property’s flood risks, that may shift the desirability of some locations over time. Those shifts will have implications for property valuations, community tax-revenue assessments, population migration patterns and a slew of other considerations.

However, while these may feel like changes being brought on by new data, the risk was already there. What is changing is people’s awareness.

The federal government has an important role to play in ensuring that accurate risk assessments are available to communities and Americans everywhere. As better tools and models evolve for assessing risk evolve, FEMA’s risk maps need to evolve, too.

Jeremy Porter has nothing to disclose.

– ref. FEMA’s flood maps often miss dangerous flash flood risks, leaving homeowners unprepared – https://theconversation.com/femas-flood-maps-often-miss-dangerous-flash-flood-risks-leaving-homeowners-unprepared-260990

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Ben Livneh, Associate Professor of Hydrology, University of Colorado Boulder

A wildfire rages across a forested mountainside. The smoke billows and the flames rise. An aircraft drops vibrant red flame retardant. It’s a dramatic, often dangerous scene. But the threat is only just beginning for downstream communtiies and the water they rely on.

After the smoke clears, the soil, which was once nestled beneath a canopy of trees and a spongy layer of leaves, is now exposed. Often, that soil is charred and sterile, with the heat making the ground almost water-repellent, like a freshly waxed car.

When the first rain arrives, the water rushes downhill. It carries with it a slurry of ash, soil and contaminants from the burned landscape. This torrent flows directly into streams and then rivers that provide drinking water for communities downstream.

As a new research paper my colleagues and I just published shows, this isn’t a short-term problem. The ghost of the fire can haunt these waterways for years.

This matters because forested watersheds are the primary water source for nearly two-thirds of municipalities in the United States. As wildfires in the western U.S. become larger and more frequent, the long-term security and safety of water supplies for downstream communities is increasingly at risk.

Charting the long tail of wildfire pollution

Scientists have long known that wildfires can affect water quality, but two key questions remained: Exactly how bad is the impact? And how long does it last?

To find out, my colleagues and I led a study, coordinated by engineer Carli Brucker. We undertook one of the most extensive analyses of post-wildfire water quality to date. The results were published June 23, 2025, in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment.

We gathered decades of water quality data from 245 burned watersheds across the western U.S. and compared them to nearly 300 similar, unburned watersheds.

By creating a computer model for each basin that accounted for its normal water quality variability, based on factors such as rainfall and temperature, we were able to isolate the impact of the wildfire. This allowed us to see how much the water quality deviated after the fire, year after year.

The results were stark. In the first year after a fire, the concentrations of some contaminants skyrocketed. We found that levels of sediment and turbidity – the cloudiness of the water – were 19 to 286 times higher than prefire levels. That much sediment can clog filters at water treatment plants and require expensive treatment and maintenance. Think of trying to use a coffee filter with muddy water – the water just won’t flow through.

Concentrations of organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus were three to 103 times greater in the burned basins. These dissolved remnants of burned plants and soil are particularly problematic. When they mix with the chlorine used to disinfect drinking water, they can form harmful chemicals called disinfection byproducts, some of which are linked to cancer.

More surprisingly, we found the impacts to be really persistent. While the most dramatic spikes in phosphorous, nitrate, organic carbon and sediment generally occurred in the first one to three years, some contaminants lingered for much longer.

We saw significantly elevated levels of nitrogen and sediment for up to eight years following a fire. Nitrogen and phosphorus act like fertilizer for algae. A surge of these nutrients can trigger algal blooms in reservoirs, which can produce toxins and create foul odors.

This extended timeline suggests that wildfires are fundamentally altering the landscape in ways that take a long time to heal. In our previous laboratory-based research, including a 2024 study, we simulated this process by burning soil and vegetation and then running water over them.

The stuff that leaches out is a cocktail of carbon, nutrients and other compounds that can exacerbate flood risks and degrade water quality in ways that require more expensive treatment at water treatment facilities. In extreme cases, the water quality may be so poor that communities can’t withdraw river water at all, and that can create water shortages.

After the Buffalo Creek Fire in 1996 and then the Hayman Fire in 2002, Denver’s water utility spent more than US$27 million over several years to treat the water, remove more than 1 million cubic yards of sediment and debris from a reservoir, and fix infrastructure. State Forest Service crews planted thousands of trees to help restore the surrounding forest’s water filtering capabilities.

A growing challenge for water treatment

This long-lasting impact poses a major challenge for water treatment plants that make river water safe to drink. Our study highlights that utilities can’t just plan for a few bad months after a fire. They need to be prepared for potentially eight or more years of degraded water quality.

We also found that where a fire burns matters. Watersheds with thicker forests or more urban areas that burned tended to have even worse water quality after a fire.

Since many municipalities draw water from more than one source, understanding which watersheds are likely to have the largest water quality problems after fires can help communities locate the most vulnerable parts of their water supply systems.

As temperatures rise and more people move into wildland areas in the American West, the risk of wildfires increases, and it is becoming clear that preparing for longer-term consequences is crucial. The health of forests and our communities’ drinking water are inseparably linked, with wildfires casting a shadow that lasts long after the smoke clears.

Ben Livneh receives funding from the Western Water Assessment NOAA grant #NA21OAR4310309, ‘Western Water Assessment: Building Resilience to Compound Hazards in the Inter-Mountain West’.

– ref. A wildfire’s legacy can haunt rivers for years, putting drinking water at risk – https://theconversation.com/a-wildfires-legacy-can-haunt-rivers-for-years-putting-drinking-water-at-risk-259118

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Julie Novkov, Professor of Political Science and Women’s, Gender and Sexuality Studies, University at Albany, State University of New York

Legal battles over President Donald Trump’s executive order to end birthright citizenship continued on July 10, 2025, after a New Hampshire federal district judge issued a preliminary injunction that will, if it’s not reversed, prevent federal officials from enforcing the order nationally.

The ruling by U.S. District Judge Joseph Laplante, a George W. Bush appointee, asserts that this policy of “highly questionable constitutionality … constitutes irreparable harm.”

In its ruling in late June, the Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to deny citizenship to infants born to undocumented parents in many parts of the nation where individuals or states had not successfully sued to prevent implementation – including a number of mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Southern states.

Trump’s executive order limits U.S. citizenship by birth to those who have at least one parent who is a U.S. citizen or legal permanent resident. It denies citizenship to those born to undocumented people within the U.S. and to the children of those on student, work, tourist and certain other types of visas.

The preliminary injunction is on hold for seven days to allow the Trump administration to appeal.

The June 27 Supreme Court decision on birthright citizenship limited the ability of lower-court judges to issue universal injunctions to block such executive orders nationwide.

Laplante was able to avoid that limit on issuing a nationwide injunction by certifying the case as a class action lawsuit encompassing all children affected by the birthright order, following a pathway suggested by the Supreme Court’s ruling.

Pathways beyond universal injunctions

In its recent birthright citizenship ruling, Trump v. CASA, the Supreme Court noted that plaintiffs could still seek broad relief by filing such class action lawsuits that would join together large groups of individuals facing the same injury from the law they were challenging.

And that’s what happened.

Litigants filed suit in New Hampshire’s district court the same day that the Supreme Court decided CASA. They asked the court to certify a class consisting of infants born on or after Feb. 20, 2025, who would be covered by the order and their parents or prospective parents. The court allowed the suit to proceed as a class action for these infants.

What if this injunction doesn’t stick?

If the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 1st Circuit or the Supreme Court invalidates the New Hampshire court’s newest national injunction and another injunction is not issued in a different venue, the order will then go into effect anywhere it is not currently barred from doing so. Implementation could begin in as many as 28 states where state attorneys general have not challenged the Trump birthright citizenship policy if no other individuals or groups secure relief.

As political science scholars who study race and immigration policy, we believe that, if implemented piecemeal, Trump’s birthright citizenship order would create administrative chaos for states determining the citizenship status of infants born in the United States. And it could lead to the first instances since the 1860s of infants being born in the U.S. being denied citizenship categorically.

States’ role in establishing citizenship

Almost all U.S.-born children are issued birth certificates by the state in which they are born.

The federal government’s standardized form, the U.S. standard certificate of live birth, collects data on parents’ birthplaces and their Social Security numbers, if available, and provides the information states need to issue birth certificates.

But it does not ask questions about their citizenship or immigration status. And no national standard exists for the format for state birth certificates, which traditionally have been the simplest way for people born in the U.S. to establish citizenship.

If Trump’s executive order goes into effect, birth certificates issued by local hospitals would be insufficient evidence of eligibility for federal government documents acknowledging citizenship. The order would require new efforts, including identification of parents’ citizenship status, before authorizing the issuance of any federal document acknowledging citizenship.

Since states control the process of issuing birth certificates, they will respond differently to implementation efforts. Several states filed a lawsuit on Jan. 21 to block the birthright citizenship order. And they will likely pursue an arsenal of strategies to resist, delay and complicate implementation.

While the Supreme Court has not yet confirmed that these states have standing to challenge the order, successful litigation could bar implementation in up to 18 states and the District of Columbia if injunctions are narrowly framed, or nationally if lawyers can persuade judges that disentangling the effects on a state-by-state basis will be too difficult.

Other states will likely collaborate with the administration to deny citizenship to some infants. Some, like Texas, had earlier attempted to make it particularly hard for undocumented parents to obtain birth certificates for their children.

Potential for chaos

If the Supreme Court rejects attempts to block the executive order nationally again, implementation will be complicated.

That’s because it would operate in some places and toward some individuals while being legally blocked in other places and toward others, as Justice Sonia Sotomayor warned in her Trump v. CASA dissent.

Children born to plaintiffs anywhere in the nation who have successfully sued would have access to citizenship, while other children possibly born in the same hospitals – but not among the groups named in the suits – would not.

Babies born in the days before implementation would have substantially different rights than those born the day after. Parents’ ethnicity and countries of origin would likely influence which infants are ultimately granted or denied citizenship.

That’s because some infants and parents would be more likely to generate scrutiny from hospital employees and officials than others, including Hispanics, women giving birth near the border, and women giving birth in states such as Florida where officials are likely to collaborate enthusiastically with enforcement.

The consequences could be profound.

Some infants would become stateless, having no right to citizenship in another nation. Many people born in the U.S. would be denied government benefits, Social Security numbers and the ability to work legally in the U.S.

With the constitutionality of the executive order still unresolved, it’s unclear when, if ever, some infants born in the U.S. will be the first in the modern era to be denied citizenship.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How citizenship chaos was averted, for now, by a class action injunction against Trump’s birthright citizenship order – https://theconversation.com/how-citizenship-chaos-was-averted-for-now-by-a-class-action-injunction-against-trumps-birthright-citizenship-order-260175

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – USA – By Keri K. Stephens, Professor & Co-Director, Technology & Information Policy Institute, The University of Texas at Austin

Flash floods like the one that swept down the Guadalupe River in Texas on July 4, 2025, can be highly unpredictable. While there are sophisticated flood prediction models and different types of warning systems in some places, effective flood protection requires extensive preparedness and awareness.

It also requires an understanding of how people receive, interpret and act on risk information and warnings. Technology can be part of the solution, but ultimately people are the critical element in any response.

As researchers who study emergency communications, we have found that simply providing people with technical information and data is often not enough to effectively communicate the danger and prompt them to act.

The human element

One of us, Keri Stephens, has led teams studying flood risk communication. They found that people who have experienced a flood are more aware of the risks. Conversely, groups that have not lived through floods typically don’t understanding various flood risks such as storm surges and flash floods. And while first responders often engage in table-top exercises and drills – very important for their readiness to respond – there are only a few examples of entire communities actively participating in warning drills.

Messages used to communicate flood risk also matter, but people need to receive them. To that end, Keri’s teams have worked with the Texas Water Development Board to develop resources that help local flood officials sort through and prioritize information about a flood hazard so they can share what is most valuable with their local communities.

The commonly used “Turn Around Don’t Drown” message, while valuable, may not resonate equally with all groups. Newly developed and tested messages such as “Keep Your Car High and Dry” appeal specifically to young adults who typically feel invincible but don’t want their prized vehicles damaged. While more research is needed, this is an example of progress in understanding an important aspect of flood communication: how recipients of the information make decisions.

Interviews conducted by researchers often include responses along these lines: “Another flash flood warning. We get these all the time. It’s never about flooding where I am.” This common refrain reveals a fundamental challenge in flood communication. When people hear “flood warning,” they often think of different things, and interpretations can vary depending on a person’s proximity to the flooding event.

Some people equate flood warnings with streamflow gauges and sensors that monitor water levels – the technical infrastructure that triggers alerts when rivers exceed certain thresholds. Others think of mobile phone alerts, county- or geographic-specific notification systems, or even sirens.

Beyond technologies and digital communication, warnings still come through informal networks in many communities. Emergency managers directly coordinate with and share information with major businesses and organizations, saying, “Hey, John, be sure you have somebody up tonight watching the National Weather Service alerts and rivers.”

This human-centered approach, similar to neighborhood-level systems we have studied in Japan, can provide direct confirmation that warnings have been received. This is something mass media and mobile systems cannot guarantee, especially during infrastructure failures such as power and cell tower outages.

Effective messages

Research shows that effective warning messages need to include five critical components: a clear hazard description, location-specific information, actionable guidance, timing cues and a credible source. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s integrated public alert and warning system message design dashboard assists authorities in rapidly drafting effective messages.

This warning system, known as IPAWS, provides nationwide infrastructure for wireless emergency alerts and Emergency Alert System messages. While powerful, IPAWS has limitations − not all emergency managers are trained to use it, and messages may extend beyond intended geographic areas. Also, many older mobile devices lack the latest capabilities, so they may not receive the most complete messages when they are sent.

Hyperlocal community opt-in systems can complement IPAWS by allowing residents to register for targeted notifications. These systems, which can be run by communities or local agencies, face their own challenges. People must know they exist, be willing to share phone numbers, and remember to update their information. Social media platforms add another communication channel, with emergency managers increasingly using social media to share updates, though these primarily reach only certain demographics, and not everyone checks social media regularly.

The key is redundancy through multiple communication channels. Research has found that multiple warnings are needed for people to develop a sense of urgency, and the most effective strategy is simple: Tell another person what’s going on. Interpersonal networks help ensure the message is delivered and can prompt actions. As former Natural Hazards Center Director Dennis Mileti observed: The wireless emergency alerts system “is fast. Mama is faster.”

Warning fatigue

Professionals from the National Weather Service, FEMA and the Federal Communications Commission, along with researchers, are increasingly concerned about warning fatigue – when people tune out warnings because they receive too many of them.

However, there is limited empirical data about how and when people experience warning fatigue – or about its impact.

This creates a double bind: Officials have an obligation to warn people at risk, yet frequent warnings can desensitize recipients. More research is needed to determine the behavioral implications of and differences between warnings that people perceive as irrelevant to their immediate geographic area versus those that genuinely don’t apply to them. This distinction becomes especially critical when people might drive into flooded areas outside their immediate vicinity.

The key to effective emergency communication is to develop messages that resonate with specific audiences and build community networks that complement technological systems. We are now studying how to do this effectively in the United States and internationally. It’s also important to apply behavioral insights to the design of every level of communication warning systems. And it’s important to remember to test not just the technology but the entire end-to-end system, from threat identification to community response.

Finally, maintaining true redundancy across multiple communication channels is an important strategy when trying to reach as many people as possible. Technology supports human decision-making, but it doesn’t replace it.

Keri K. Stephens’ research reported here has been externally funded by the Texas Water Development Board, Texas General Land Office, and the National Science Foundation. Results published are peer-reviewed, and opinions reflect those of the author, not the funder.

Hamilton Bean has earned research funding from U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Results published are peer-reviewed, and opinions reflect those of the author, not the funder.

– ref. Why it can be hard to warn people about dangers like floods – communication researchers explain the role of human behavior – https://theconversation.com/why-it-can-be-hard-to-warn-people-about-dangers-like-floods-communication-researchers-explain-the-role-of-human-behavior-260780

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Sheldon Strydom, Senior Lecturer & Head of Department, Department of Geography, Rhodes University

Winter in some parts of South Africa is a time of low (or no) rainfall and high fire danger. Sheldon Strydom studies the relationship between weather and fire, in particular how Berg winds, also known as mountain flow events, are linked to periods of enhanced fire danger. Mid-July is typically a high risk period. He shares what he has learnt during his research in the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa, close to the country’s largest mountain range, the Drakensberg.

What are Berg winds and how do they form?

It’s long been known that mountain winds (“foëhn winds”, “chinook winds” and the like) increase fire danger. There’s case study evidence from around the globe.

In South Africa, these mountain winds are known as Berg winds. They are generally experienced as warm and dry.

A mountain wind starts when a mass of air is forced to rise along a windward slope (the side of the mountain that wind is blowing towards). As the mass of air rises it cools. When it reaches the peak of the slope or mountain it descends on the leeward (sheltered) side. As it gets lower, the air gets warmer.

Berg winds commonly occur in South African winters when high atmospheric pressure systems are situated over the interior of the country and low pressure systems are situated off the coast. (Atmospheric pressure is the pressure of air over the land, and affects the movement of air.)

Usually, a coastal low pressure system happens a day or two before a cold front. The pressure gradient (difference in pressure that drives wind) between the interior high pressure cell and coastal low pressure cell results in air flowing towards the coast from the interior of the country, down the mountain escarpment. The air reaches coastal areas as a warm, dry wind.

Why study the relationship between Berg winds and fires?

Winds can spread fires in the landscape.

Our study, using data from four sites in the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, quantified the effect of Berg winds on the microclimate (local weather conditions) and emphasised how these changes influence fire danger.

The sources of fires in South Africa, as elsewhere, vary. For example, wildfires can be started when prescribed burning, or the planned use of fire, becomes uncontrolled due to changes in weather conditions. Accidental fires and arson are the most common causes of wildfires. Research shows that wildfires and fire disasters are common in areas where prescribed burning is used.

Prescribed burning, or the planned use of fire, is an important aspect of agricultural management. It promotes the dispersal and germination of seeds from a number of species and also removes ground litter. Prescribed burning is used to manage grasslands and has been linked to decreasing the number of disease-borne vectors such as ticks.

But if they get out of control, fires pose a threat to farmland and plantations.

It’s therefore vital to have weather forecasts and monitoring systems that warn of conditions conducive to the development and spread of fires.

Internationally, fire danger indices or meters are used to monitor conditions. In South Africa, the South African Weather Service and other interested and affected parties currently use the Lowveld fire danger index. The index is calculated using records of air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed and rainfall. These are measured once a day. Daily forecasts are available from the Weather Service and disseminated to local fire protection associations.

Much research in South Africa has focused on pyrogeography (understanding when and where fires occur) and fire ecology. Little research has been done to quantify the effects of Berg winds on fire danger using available historical hourly meteorological data.

The midlands of KwaZulu-Natal province serve as a perfect environment to study the effects of Berg winds on the microclimate and fire danger. The area is close to the Drakensberg mountains and experiences frequent fires. It’s also a largely agricultural area.

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Read more:
Southern Africa’s rangelands do many jobs, from feeding cattle to storing carbon: a review of 60 years of research

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What did you discover?

The study developed a fuzzy logic system (a mathematical method for handling uncertainty) to identify periods of Berg wind conditions using historical hourly meteorological data in four sites.

We analysed variables like the air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and fire danger at different times of the day and night, before and during Berg winds.

The analysis revealed the significance of change experienced in the local weather conditions (within 2km) during periods of Berg winds, and how these changes influence fire danger.

It found that:

• Berg winds were more common during daytime hours and affected the microclimate most during the day

• during daytime Berg wind events, air temperatures rose by an average of 5.5°C; humidity fell by an average of 16%; and wind speed increased by an average of 5.2 metres per second

• daytime Berg wind events significantly elevated fire danger

• night-time Berg winds, while less common, did still result in significant change in the microclimate

• at night, fire danger increases when a combination of variables change significantly.

The fuzzy logic system can be useful in two ways: to quantify the effects of Berg winds on the microclimate and to complement any fire danger monitoring system. It can measure conditions at a higher temporal resolution, such as every 10 minutes, or hour – making it more useful for monitoring near real-time changes in fire danger.

The system could be valuable for operational use by agencies like the KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Disaster Management Centre, and could be applied in other regions vulnerable to fire risk.

Sheldon Strydom receives funding from Rhodes University, and the National Research Foundation.

Michael John Savage has received funding from the NRF.

– ref. Berg winds in South Africa: the winter weather pattern that increases wildfire risks – https://theconversation.com/berg-winds-in-south-africa-the-winter-weather-pattern-that-increases-wildfire-risks-260612