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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Reproducibility may be the key idea students need to balance trust in evidence with healthy skepticism

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Sarah R. Supp, Associate Professor of Data Analytics, Denison University

    Reproducing results can increase trust in scientific studies. Huntstock via Getty Images

    Many people have been there.

    The dinner party is going well until someone decides to introduce a controversial topic. In today’s world, that could be anything from vaccines to government budget cuts to immigration policy. Conversation starts to get heated. Finally, someone announces with great authority that a scientific study supports their position. This causes the discussion to come to an abrupt halt because the dinner guests disagree on their belief in scientific evidence. Some may believe science always speaks the truth, some may think science can never be trusted, and others may disagree on which studies with contradicting claims are “right.”

    How can the dinner party – or society – move beyond this kind of impasse? In today’s world of misinformation and disinformation, healthy skepticism is essential. At the same time, much scientific work is rigorous and trustworthy. How do you reach a healthy balance between trust and skepticism? How can researchers increase the transparency of their work to make it possible to evaluate how much confidence the public should have in any particular study?

    As teachers and scholars, we see these problems in our own classrooms and in our students – and they are mirrored in society.

    The concept of reproducibility may offer important answers to these questions.

    Reproducibility is what it sounds like: reproducing results. In some ways, reproducibility is like a well-written recipe, such as a recipe for an award-winning cake at the county fair. To help others reproduce their cake, the proud prizewinner must clearly document the ingredients used and then describe each step of the process by which the ingredients were transformed into a cake. If others can follow the directions and come up with a cake of the same quality, then the recipe is reproducible.

    Think of the English scholar who claims that Shakespeare did not author a play that has historically been attributed to him. A critical reader will want to know exactly how they arrived at that conclusion. What is the evidence? How was it chosen and interpreted? By parsing the analysis step by step, reproducibility allows a critical reader to gauge the strength of any kind of argument.

    We are a group of researchers and professors from a wide range of disciplines who came together to discuss how we use reproducibility in our teaching and research.

    Based on our expertise and the students we encounter, we collectively see a need for higher-education students to learn about reproducibility in their classes, across all majors. It has the potential to benefit students and, ultimately, to enhance the quality of public discourse.

    The foundation of credibility

    Reproducibility has always been a foundation of good science because it allows researchers to scrutinize each other’s studies for rigor and credibility and expand upon prior work to make new discoveries. Researchers are increasingly paying attention to reproducibility in the natural sciences, such as physics and medicine, and in the social sciences, such as economics and environmental studies. Even researchers in the humanities, such as history and philosophy, are concerned with reproducibility in studies involving analysis of texts and evidence, especially with digital and computational methods. Increased interest in transparency and accessibility has followed the rising importance of computer algorithms and numerical analysis in research. This work should be reproducible, but it often remains opaque.

    Broadly, research is reproducible if it answers the question: “How do you know?” − such that another researcher could theoretically repeat the study and produce consistent results.

    Reproducible research is explicit about the materials and methods that were used in a study to make discoveries and come to conclusions. Materials include everything from scientific instruments such as a tensiometer measuring soil moisture to surveys asking people about their daily diet. They also include digital data such as spreadsheets, digitized historic texts, satellite images and more. Methods include how researchers make observations and analyze data.

    To reproduce a social science study, for example, we would ask: What is the central question or hypothesis? Who was in the study? How many individuals were included? What were they asked? After data was collected, how was it cleaned and prepared for analysis? How exactly was the analysis run?

    Proper documentation of all these steps, plus making available the original data from the study, allows other scientists to redo the research, evaluate the decisions made during the process of gathering and analyzing information, and assess the credibility of the findings.

    This short video, made by the National Academies, explains the key concepts in reproducing scientific findings and notes ways the process can be improved.

    Over the past 20 years, the need for reproducibility has become increasingly important. Scientists have discovered that some published studies are too poorly documented for others to repeat, lack verified data sources, are questionably designed, or even fraudulent.

    Putting reproducibility to work: An example

    A highly contentious, retracted study from 1998 linked the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine and autism. Scientists and journalists used their understanding of reproducibility to discover the flaws in the study.

    The central question of the study was not about vaccines but aimed to explore a possible relationship between colitis − an inflammation of the large intestine − and developmental disorders. The authors explicitly wrote, “We did not prove an association between measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine and the syndrome described.”

    The study observed just 12 patients who were referred to the authors’ gastroenterology clinic and had histories of recent behavioral disorders, including autism. This sample of children is simply too small and selective to be able to make definitive conclusions.

    In this study, the researchers translated children’s medical charts into summary tables for comparison. When a journalist attempted to reproduce the published data tables from the children’s medical histories, they found pervasive inconsistencies.

    Reproducibility allows for corrections in research. The article was published in a respected journal, but it lacked transparency with regard to patient recruitment, data analysis and conflicts of interest. Whereas traditional peer review involves critical evaluation of a manuscript, reproducibility also opens the door to evaluating the underlying data and methods. When independent researchers attempted to reproduce this study, they found deep flaws. The article was retracted by the journal and by most of its authors. Independent research teams conducted more robust studies, finding no relationship between vaccines and autism.

    Each research discipline has its own set of best practices for achieving reproducibility. Disciplines in which researchers use computational or statistical analysis require sharing the data and software code for reproducing studies. In other disciplines, researchers interpret nonnumerical qualities of data sources such as interviews, historical texts, social media content and more. These disciplines are working to develop standards for sharing their data and research designs for reproducibility. Across disciplines, the core principles are the same: transparency of the evidence and arguments by which researchers arrived at their conclusions.

    Reproducibility in the classroom

    Colleges and universities are uniquely situated to promote reproducibility in research and public conversations. Critical thinking, effective communication and intellectual integrity, staples of higher-education mission statements, are all served by reproducibility.

    Teaching faculty at colleges and universities have started taking some important steps toward incorporating reproducibility into a wide range of undergraduate and graduate courses. These include assignments to replicate existing studies, training in reproducible methods to conduct and document original research, preregistration of hypotheses and analysis plans, and tools to facilitate open collaboration among peers. A number of initiatives to develop and disseminate resources for teaching reproducibility have been launched.

    Despite some progress, reproducibility still needs a central place in higher education. It can be integrated into any course in which students weigh evidence, read published literature to make claims, or learn to conduct their own research. This change is urgently needed to train the next generation of researchers, but that is not the only reason.

    Reproducibility is fundamental to constructing and communicating claims based on evidence. Through a reproducibility lens, students evaluate claims in published studies as contingent on the transparency and soundness of the evidence and analysis on which the claims are based. When faculty teach reproducibility as a core expectation from the beginning of a curriculum, they encourage students to internalize its principles in how they conduct their own research and engage with the research published by others.

    Institutions of higher education already prioritize cultivating engaged, literate and critical citizens capable of solving the world’s most challenging contemporary problems. Teaching reproducibility equips students, and members of the public, with the skills they need to critically analyze claims in published research, in the media and even at dinner parties.

    Also contributing to this article are participants in the 2024 Reproducibility and Replicability in the Liberal Arts workshop, funded by the Alliance to Advance Liberal Arts Colleges (AALAC) [in alphabetical order]: Ben Gebre-Medhin (Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Mount Holyoke College), Xavier Haro-Carrión (Department of Geography, Macalester College), Emmanuel Kaparakis (Quantitative Analysis Center, Wesleyan University), Scott LaCombe (Statistical and Data Sciences, Smith College), Matthew Lavin (Data Analytics Program, Denison University), Joseph J. Merry (Sociology Department, Furman University), Laurie Tupper (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Mount Holyoke College).

    Sarah Supp receives funding from the National Science Foundation, awards #1915913, #2120609, and #2227298.

    Joseph Holler receives funding from the National Science Foundation, award #2049837.

    Peter Kedron receives funding from the National Science Foundation, award #2049837 and from Esri.

    Richard Ball has received funding from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the United Kingdom Reproducibility Network.

    Anne M. Nurse and Nicholas J. Horton do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Reproducibility may be the key idea students need to balance trust in evidence with healthy skepticism – https://theconversation.com/reproducibility-may-be-the-key-idea-students-need-to-balance-trust-in-evidence-with-healthy-skepticism-251771

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How your electric bill may be paying for big data centers’ energy use

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ari Peskoe, Lecturer on Law, Harvard University

    Your power bill may be hiding something. photoschmidt/iStock/Getty Images Plus

    In the race to develop artificial intelligence, large technology companies such as Google and Meta are trying to secure massive amounts of electricity to power new data centers. Electric utilities see the prospect of earning large profits by providing electricity to these power-hungry facilities and are competing for their business by offering discounts not available to average consumers.

    In our paper Extracting Profits from the Public, we explain how utilities are forcing regular ratepayers to pay for the discounts enjoyed by some of the nation’s largest companies and identify ways policymakers can limit the costs to the public.

    Shifting costs

    In much of the U.S., utilities are monopolists. Within their service territories, they are the only companies allowed to deliver electricity to consumers. To fund their operations, utilities split the costs of maintaining and expanding their systems among all ratepayers – homeowners, businesses, warehouses, factories and anyone else who uses electricity.

    Historically, a utility expanded its system to meet growing demand for electricity from new factories, businesses and homes. To pay for its expansion − new power plants, new transmission lines and other equipment − the utility would propose to raise electricity rates by different amounts for various types of consumers.

    Public utility commissions are state agencies charged with ensuring that the public gets a fair deal. These commissions monitor how much money the utility spends to provide electric service and how its costs are shared among various types of ratepayers, including residential, commercial and industrial consumers. Ultimately, the public utility commission is supposed to approve any rate increases based on its assessment of what’s fair to consumers.

    Splitting the utility’s costs among all consumers made perfect sense when population growth and economic development across the economy stimulated the need for new infrastructure. But today, in many utility service territories, most of the projected growth in electricity demand is due to new data centers.

    Here’s the problem for consumers: To meet data center demand, utilities are building new power plants and power lines that are needed only because of data center growth. If state regulators allow utilities to follow the standard approach of splitting the costs of new infrastructure among all consumers, the public will end up paying to supply data centers with all that power.

    An artist’s rendering of a proposed Meta data center in Richland Parish, La.
    Meta via Facebook

    A big price tag

    One particularly acute example is in Louisiana. A Meta data center under development in the northeastern corner of the state is projected to use, by our calculations, twice as much energy as the city of New Orleans.

    Entergy, the regional monopoly utility, is proposing to build more than US$3 billion worth of new gas-fired power plants and delivery infrastructure to meet the data center’s energy demand. Rather than billing Meta directly for these costs, Entergy is proposing to include the costs in rates paid by all customers.

    Entergy claims its contract with Meta will cover some portion of the $3 billion price tag and that will mitigate any increases in consumers’ bills. But Entergy has asked state regulators to keep key terms of the contract secret, and only a redacted version of its application is available online.

    The public has no idea how much it might pay if the commission approves the contract. And if the Meta data center ends up using much less power than the company anticipates, the public does not know whether it would be on the hook to pay higher electricity rates for longer periods to guarantee Entergy a profit.

    The electronics in data centers consume large amounts of electricity.
    RJ Sangosti/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images

    Secret agreements

    Our research, reviewing nearly 50 public utility commission proceedings about data centers’ power needs across 10 states, uncovered dozens of secretive contracts between utilities and data centers. Unlike Louisiana, most states require utilities to submit to the public utility commission their one-off deals with data centers, but they allow utilities to conceal the pricing terms from the public.

    In normal rate-review cases, numerous parties advocate for their interests in a public proceeding, including members of the public, industry groups and the utility itself. But as our paper finds, utility commission reviews of data center contracts are based on confidential utility filings that are inaccessible to the general public. Few, if any, outsiders participate, and as a result the commission often hears only the utility’s version of the deal.

    Because the pricing terms are secret, it is impossible to know whether the deal that a utility is offering to a data center is too low to cover the utility’s costs of providing power to the data center, which would mean that the public is subsidizing the deal. History shows, however, that utilities have a long history of exploiting their monopolies to shift costs to the public, including through secret contracts.

    Electric utilities also charge customers for the costs of building and maintaining transmission networks.
    Jay L. Clendenin/Getty Images

    Other public costs

    Our paper also explores other ways that the public pays for data center energy costs. For instance, many high-voltage interstate transmission projects, which connect large power plants to local delivery systems, are developed through regional planning processes run by numerous utilities. These alliances have complex rules for splitting the costs of new transmission lines and equipment among their utility members.

    Once a utility is charged its share, it spreads the costs of new transmission projects among its local ratepayers. Because some regions are building new transmission capacity to accommodate data centers, our analysis finds that the public has been forced to pay billions of dollars for data center growth.

    Data center energy costs can also be shifted when data centers connect directly to existing power plants. Under what are called “co-location” deals, the power plant stops selling energy to the wider public and just sells to the data center. With less supply in the overall market, prices go up and the public faces higher bills as a result.

    Many state legislatures are noticing these problems and working to figure out how to address them. Several recent bills would set new terms and conditions for future data center deals that could help protect the public from data center energy costs.

    Ari Peskoe is the Director of the Electricity Law Initiative at the Harvard Law School Environmental and Energy Law Program (EELP). EELP receives funding from philanthropic foundations that support the clean energy transition.

    Eliza Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How your electric bill may be paying for big data centers’ energy use – https://theconversation.com/how-your-electric-bill-may-be-paying-for-big-data-centers-energy-use-257794

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 100 years ago, the Supreme Court made a landmark ruling on parents’ rights in education – today, another case raises new questions

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Charles J. Russo, Joseph Panzer Chair in Education and Research Professor of Law, University of Dayton

    A selection of books that are part of the Supreme Court case Mahmoud v. Taylor are pictured on April, 15, 2025, in Washington. AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais

    A century ago, the Supreme Court handed down one of its most important cases about education. On June 1, 1925, the court struck down an Oregon statute requiring all students to attend public school – a law critics argued was meant to limit faith-based schools, at a time when anti-Catholic bias was still common in parts of the United States.

    The majority opinion in Pierce v. Society of Sisters of the Holy Name of Jesus and Mary included a now-famous dictum about parents’ rights to shape their children’s upbringing. According to the court, “the child is not the mere creature of the state; those who nurture him and direct his destiny have the right, coupled with the high duty, to recognize and prepare him for additional obligations.”

    Soon, the Supreme Court is expected to release another decision around parental beliefs and education: Mahmoud v. Taylor. The plaintiffs are parents who want to excuse their children from public school lessons involving storybooks with LGBTQ+ characters – lessons they assert contradict their religious beliefs.

    As someone who teaches education law, I believe this is perhaps the court’s most significant case on parental rights since Pierce. Mahmoud raises questions not only about religious freedom, but also about educators’ ability to determine curricula, and public education in a pluralistic society.

    Picture-book debate

    Controversy arose during the 2022-23 school year in Montgomery County, Maryland’s largest school district, when officials approved various storybooks with LGBTQ+-inclusive themes to be incorporated into the English language-arts curriculum for preschool and elementary students.

    Some parents challenged the materials, including “Pride Puppy!”, a picture book the board later removed from use. Originally approved for preschool and pre-K, the story portrays a family whose puppy gets lost at a LGBTQ+ Pride parade, devoting a page to each letter of the alphabet. At the end of the book, a long “search and find” list of words for children to go back and look for in the pictures of the parade includes “[drag] queen” and “king,” “leather” and “lip ring.”

    Other materials for older children included stories about same-sex marriage, a transgender child and nonbinary bathroom signs.

    Parents who objected to the use of these materials on religious grounds sought to excuse their children from lessons using them. The parents basically argued that requiring their children to participate compelled or coerced them to go against their families’ religious beliefs.

    A group of parents protest in Rockville, Md., on June 27, 2023, in an effort to opt out of books that feature LGBTQ+ characters in Montgomery County schools.
    Sarah L. Voisin/The Washington Post via Getty Images

    Initially, officials agreed to allow opt-outs for elementary schoolers whose parents objected to the materials. However, a day later they changed their minds. Since then, school officials cited concerns about absenteeism, the feasibility of accommodating opt-out requests, and a desire to avoid stigmatizing LGBTQ+ students or families as reasons for their policy.

    A group of Muslim, Orthodox Christian and Catholic families challenged the board’s refusal to excuse their children from lessons using the disputed materials.

    The federal trial court, however, rejected the parents’ claim that having no opt-outs violated their right to due process.

    Parents appealed, and the 4th Circuit affirmed in favor of the school board 2-1. The court added that officials had not violated the parents’ First Amendment rights to freely exercise their faith. “There’s no evidence at present that the Board’s decision not to permit opt-outs compels the Parents or their children to change their religious beliefs or conduct, either at school or elsewhere,” the panel concluded.

    The dissenting judge stridently countered. Officials violated the parents’ free exercise rights by forcing them “to make a choice,” he wrote, between “either adher[ing] to their faith, or receiv[ing] a free public education for their children.” He also noted that the board’s opt-out policy was not neutral toward religion, because under Maryland regulations, children may be excused from sex-ed lessons.

    In January 2025, the Supreme Court agreed to hear the parents’ appeal, addressing whether the schools are burdening parents’ free-exercise rights.

    Court record

    In their brief to the Supreme Court and oral arguments, the parents cited Wisconsin v. Yoder, a Supreme Court ruling from 1972. The court found that Amish parents did not have to send their children to school after the eighth grade, which the families argued would violate their religious beliefs. Amish communities descend from Anabaptist Christians who fled persecution in Europe and emphasize living simply, eschewing many modern technologies.

    In Yoder, the justices agreed with the parents that their children received all the education they needed in their home communities. Under the First Amendment, parents have the right “to guide the religious future and education of their children,” the majority wrote, a matter “established beyond debate.”

    During oral arguments for Mahmoud in April 2025, some justices briefly discussed another precedent: the Supreme Court’s 1943 judgment in West Virginia State Board of Education v. Barnette, resolved at the height of U.S. involvement in World War II. Here, three parents who were Jehovah’s Witnesses refused to have their children participate in public schools’ flag salute and Pledge of Allegiance because they viewed it as a form of idolatry contrary to their religious beliefs. Others objected
    to the salute as “being too much like Hitler’s.”

    The court reasoned that educators could not compel students to participate, because forcing children – or anyone – to engage in activities inconsistent with their beliefs is contrary to their First Amendment rights to the free exercise of religion and freedom of speech.

    Viewed together, these cases highlight how the court has granted parents significant leeway to exempt their children from educational activities inconsistent with their religious beliefs.

    Questions at court

    During oral arguments, a majority of justices appeared to support the parents’ request to excuse children from lessons involving the books about LGBTQ+ characters.

    The board’s attorney argued that students did not have to agree with the books’ messages, simply to participate in the lesson. Being exposed to an idea “does not burden free exercise,” he said.

    Protesters in support of LGBTQ+ rights and against book bans outside the U.S. Supreme Court building on April 22, 2025, the day the court heard arguments in Mahmoud v. Taylor.
    Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

    Chief Justice John Roberts, however, queried whether it is realistic for 5-year-olds to understand that distinction. He asked, “Do you want to say you don’t have to follow the teacher’s instructions, you don’t have to agree with the teacher? I mean, that may be a more dangerous message than some of the other things.”

    Other conservative justices also appeared skeptical of the idea that the lessons were merely exposing young children to ideas, but not instilling moral lessons. The storybooks do not simply explain that some people believe something and others do not, Justice Amy Coney Barrett suggested; they inform students that “this is the right view of the world.” Similarly, Justice Neil Gorsuch remarked that telling students that “some people think X, and X is wrong and hurtful and negative” is “more than exposure.”

    “What is the big deal about allowing them to opt out of this?” Justice Samuel Alito asked.

    Conversely, Justice Elena Kagan acknowledged that parents’ concerns were “serious,” but wondered how to draw limits on opt-out policies. Did the parents’ argument suggest that anytime “a religious person confronts anything in a classroom that conflicts with her religious beliefs or her parents’ that – that the parent can then demand an opt-out?”

    Justice Sonia Sotomayor pressed the plaintiffs’ attorney on whether “the mere exposure to things that you object to” really counts as coercion. And Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson questioned why, even if opt-outs are not allowed, public schools teaching “something that the parent disagrees with” is coercive, given that homeschooling and private schools are legal.

    Mahmoud raises challenging questions about curricular content, parental control and free exercise of religion – questions the court will hopefully resolve. A ruling is expected in June or early July 2025.

    Charles J. Russo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 100 years ago, the Supreme Court made a landmark ruling on parents’ rights in education – today, another case raises new questions – https://theconversation.com/100-years-ago-the-supreme-court-made-a-landmark-ruling-on-parents-rights-in-education-today-another-case-raises-new-questions-257876

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Grattan on Friday: Albanese will need some nuance in facing a female opposition leader

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Anthony Albanese loves a trophy, especially a human one. He prides himself on his various “captain’s pick” candidates – good campaigners he has steered into seats.

    Way back in the Gillard days, he was key in persuading discontented Liberal Peter Slipper to defect. Slipper became an independent and Labor’s speaker.

    The exercise helped the government’s numbers, but the bold play didn’t end well for Labor or for Slipper. The government was tarnished, and Slipper, relentlessly pursued by the Coalition and mired in controversy, eventually had to quit the speakership. The affair did produce Julia Gillard’s famous misogyny speech, however.

    Now Albanese has another gee-whiz prize – Western Australian Senator Dorinda Cox, who has defected from the Greens. Cox, after being defeated in a bid for Greens deputy leader, approached Labor and the PM drove her course to being accepted into the party.

    The manoeuvre makes a marginal but insignificant difference to Senate numbers – Labor will still need the Greens to pass legislation opposed by the Coalition.

    Taking in Cox is a risk, and some in Labor are looking at it askance.

    The prime minister’s embrace of Cox contradicts Labor’s argument when its Western Australian senator Fatima Payman defected to become an independent. It said then hers was a Labor seat and she should therefore resign. But this wouldn’t be the first time expediency trumped consistency in politics.

    Cox, who is Indigenous and was spokeswoman for First Nations and resources in the last parliament, has been a fierce critic of the extending the North West Shelf gas project, which the government has just announced. Albanese says he is confident she “understands that being a member of the Labor Party means that she will support positions that are made by the Labor Party”.

    She has also faced allegations of treating staff badly. Labor discounts the claims against her, saying they are overblown and a product of Greens factionalism and toxicity. Certainly, she was given a tough time by the hard-left faction represented by deputy leader Mehreen Faruqi. Labor would be wise to ensure Cox feels supported in her new party home.

    Albanese perhaps calculates that the worst that can happen is there’s a blow up and she defects to the crossbench. Labor could shrug and say, she was never really one of us.

    Snatching a senator from the Greens is particularly satisfying to Albanese because he hates the party so much. Last term, lower house Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather (defeated at the election) really got under his skin. More generally, the Greens held up important legislation, most notably on housing.

    In the new Senate, Labor will need only the Greens to pass legislation opposed by the Coalition. How new Greens leader Larissa Waters – who replaced Adam Bandt after he lost his seat – handles the party’s relationship with the government will be crucial for the more contentious parts of Labor’s legislative program.

    The usually low-key Waters will be under a lot of pressure. The Greens had a bad election, losing three lower house seats. Now they have lost a senator at the start of Waters’ watch.

    Waters conceded on the Serious Danger podcast in late May that Labor had successfully run the narrative of the Greens as blockers. “So I do think we’re going to need to be quite deft in how we handle balance of power in this term, […] People want us to be constructive. They don’t just want us to roll over and tick off on any old shit. They want meaningful reforms.”

    Waters will want to pick her fights carefully, and also find ways of pursuing the Greens’ agenda where the party co-operates. The first deal is likely to be on the government’s legislation to increase the tax on those with large superannuation balances, which contains the controversial provision to tax unrealised capital gains.

    Opposition Leader Sussan Ley and her team will confront some of the same problems as the Greens – when to oppose and when to seek to negotiate with the government.

    For his part, Albanese will have a novel challenge with Ley – what stance to adopt against the first female opposition leader, especially but not only in parliamentary clashes.

    After facing two alpha male opposition leaders, Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton, a new approach will obviously be necessary. As one Labor man succinctly puts it, “Labor can’t monster a woman”. There can be no repeat of Albanese, a frontbencher a decade ago in the Shorten opposition, interjecting to urge a female colleague engaged in a stoush with Ley to “smash her”.

    For Ley, trying to deal with the Liberals’ multiple difficulties in attracting women voters and candidates must be high on her agenda. Former Liberal federal president Alan Stockdale, one of the three-person group currently running the NSW division of the party, showed himself part of the problem when this week he told the NSW Liberal Women’s Council, “The women in this party are so assertive now that we may need some special rules for men to get them pre-selected”.

    Stockdale said later he was being “light-hearted”. Tone deaf might be a better term. Ley jumped on him. “There is nothing wrong with being an assertive woman. In fact I encourage assertive women to join the Liberal Party.”

    The jury is out on whether Ley will be able to make any sort of fist of her near-impossible job. But in the short time she’s been leader, she has shown she is willing to be assertive.

    She emerged from the brief split in the Coalition looking much steadier than Nationals leader David Littleproud, even though she had to persuade her party room to accept the minor party’s policy demands.

    In her frontbench reshuffle, she was willing to wear the inevitable criticism that came with dropping a couple of senior women who had under-performed.

    As deputy leader, Ley adjusted her style a while before the election, toning down the aggression and sometimes wild attacks, that had characterised her performance earlier in the term. A Liberal source said she found her “line and length”. As leader, she will have others, notably deputy Ted O’Brien, to do the head-kicking, giving her room to attempt to develop a positive political persona.

    Labor leaned into attacking Dutton – never afraid to name him. With Ley, Albanese might adopt the Bob Carr approach of avoiding using his opponent’s name. At least until he finds his line and length in dealing with her.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Grattan on Friday: Albanese will need some nuance in facing a female opposition leader – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-albanese-will-need-some-nuance-in-facing-a-female-opposition-leader-257338

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tasmania could go to an election just 16 months after its last one. What’s going on?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Hortle, Deputy Director, Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of Tasmania

    Tasmania’s Liberal government and its premier, Jeremy Rockliff, have come under huge pressure since the state budget was handed down last week.

    It’s culminated in the Tasmanian House of Assembly voting to pass a motion of no confidence in the premier – but only after the speaker, Labor’s Michelle O’Byrne, cast a tie-breaking vote in favour.

    Rockliff has since confirmed he’ll recall parliament to sit early next week and debate some emergency bills, then ask the governor for permission to call an early election.

    It’s been a wild few days in Tasmanian politics, with huge amounts of conjecture and confusion. Here’s how it all unfolded.

    What is a no confidence motion?

    First, we need a short lesson in our system of government, called the Westminster system. The Tasmanian situation right now all started with a motion of no confidence in the premier, Rockliff.

    This type of parliamentary motion is used to declare the parliament no longer has confidence in the target of the motion.

    No confidence motions can be directed at a specific minister or a government as a whole.

    If a no confidence motion in a minister is passed, they usually resign from their ministry and sometimes from parliament as well.

    If a no confidence motion in a government is passed, the leader of the government usually recommends one of two options to the governor. They can ask the governor to dissolve parliament and call an election, or they can advise the governor to ask someone else (usually the leader of the opposition) to have a go at forming government.

    What is happening in Tasmania?

    Strap in, it’s complex.

    On May 29, the Liberal government presented the state budget. The outlook is grim, with the state forecast to be over $10 billion in debt by 2029.

    To address this, the government proposed big cuts to the public service in the coming years.

    On June 2, the leader of the opposition, Labor’s Dean Winter, tabled a motion of no confidence in the premier at the end of his budget reply speech.

    “Tabling” a motion means putting it on the agenda for discussion at some point in future. To be debated, it has to be “moved”.

    Winter stated he wouldn’t move the motion until he had enough support to guarantee it would pass. The motion focused on three things:

    • alleged poor financial management

    • the ongoing Spirit of Tasmania ferry fiasco

    • and the government’s plan to potentially privatise some state-owned businesses.

    Support was fast in coming. By Monday evening, three of the six cross-benchers had said they would vote for the motion, meaning Labor only needed the five Greens MPs to jump onboard.

    At a party meeting early on Wednesday morning, the Greens decided they would do just that.

    So, instead of debating the budget, Wednesday and Thursday were spent debating the no confidence motion.

    There was a lot of confusion in Tasmanian political circles at this point. There is very little formal procedure that describes how no confidence motions work in Tasmania’s parliament.

    Instead, what happens is defined by convention, which means there are lots of grey areas. There have only been a few successful no confidence motions in Tasmania’s history (the most recent ones were in 1989 and 1982).

    So how did it play out?

    This time around, there were a few complications.

    The motion referred to the premier, not the government. There was speculation, therefore, that if the motion passed, the Liberal Party could replace Rockliff as leader, and Labor would then pass the budget.

    However, during parliamentary debate, several Liberal MPs argued they saw the motion as indicating lack of confidence in the whole government – not just the premier. Under this view, Rockliff would have to go to the governor, Barbara Baker, and ask her to call an election, or advise her to ask Winter to try to rally the numbers to govern.

    Although the convention is that the governor follows the premier’s advice, there is precedent for them making their own decision.

    Just to spice things up further, Baker is currently on leave. The decision would need to be made by the lieutenant-governor, Chief Justice Chris Shanahan, who is new to his role – and the state.

    An election quickly shaped up as the most likely outcome. On Thursday morning, Rockliff announced that if the motion passed, he would ask the governor to dissolve parliament and call an election.

    Shortly after that, Winter ruled out governing in coalition – or doing a deal – with the Greens. This made it very unlikely any alternative government would have the numbers to pass legislation through the lower house, leaving the lieutenant-governor with few options.

    Late on Thursday, parliament voted on the motion. With the numbers tied at 17-17, the speaker cast her vote with the “ayes” alongside the other nine Labor MPs, all five Greens MPs, independents Craig Garland and Kristie Johnston, and the Jacqui Lambie Network’s last remaining MP, Andrew Jenner.

    Following an emotionally charged speech, Rockliff met with the lieutenant-governor. Speaking to the media afterwards, he said he’ll recall parliament on Tuesday with the aim of passing an emergency supply bill to ensure public servants continue to be paid despite the delay in the budget process.

    Rockliff said he would then ask Baker – who returns from leave next week – for permission to call an election. It will be interesting to see if she takes his advice or not.

    What happens now?

    All this means Tasmania could head back to the polls in mid-July, just 16 months after the last state election.

    The Liberals will seek to pin the blame for the snap election on Labor and the crossbench, and hope that a grumpy electorate punishes them for this.

    They will also try to convince Tasmanians they are the only party that can get the controversial stadium in Hobart is built, thereby delivering the state its long-desired AFL team.

    Labor will campaign on the three things it cited in the no confidence motion, while arguing it will also guarantee that Tasmania gets an AFL team.

    They’ll also be hoping to ride the wave of the recent strong result for federal Labor at the national election. However, on past evidence, they can’t bank on this.

    Labor’s challenge will be differentiating themselves from the current government, because their positions are pretty closely aligned on key issues, including the stadium, salmon farming, and the proposed development assistance panels.

    The Greens will set out their stall as the only party firmly against the current stadium proposal and in favour of removing salmon farming in Tasmanian waters.

    For the independents, an early election is bad news. Campaigns are expensive, and without extensive party resources to draw on, some independents may be forced to decide whether they can afford to run again so soon.

    All of this does not point to a more stable parliament. The vote share of the two major parties has been steadily decreasing in Tasmania. A new election is not likely to reverse this trend.

    In the meantime, Tasmanians are left to wonder when their political leaders will get serious about tackling the state’s complex health, housing, education, sustainability, and productivity challenges.

    Robert Hortle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tasmania could go to an election just 16 months after its last one. What’s going on? – https://theconversation.com/tasmania-could-go-to-an-election-just-16-months-after-its-last-one-whats-going-on-258180

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Virgin Australia is coming back to the share market. Here’s what this new chapter could mean

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rico Merkert, Professor in Transport and Supply Chain Management and Deputy Director, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (ITLS), University of Sydney Business School, University of Sydney

    Petr Podrouzek/Shutterstock

    It is finally happening. After five years of being a private company, Virgin Australia will relist on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) on June 24. The company is expected to raise A$685 million through the initial public offering (IPO).

    So, who will benefit from Virgin Australia’s return to the share market? Having paid $3.5 billion for the bankrupt carrier back in 2020, private equity firm Bain Capital will be the most immediate winner.

    Earlier this year, Bain had sold 25% of the company to Qatar Airways. Now, with the IPO, Bain will reduce its stake from about 70% down to 40%.

    With Virgin’s anticipated market capitalisation close to $2.3 billion and enterprise value of reportedly up to $3.6 billion, it is now evident that Bain Capital has – with Jayne Hrdlicka at the helm of the airline – not only managed to turn the company around, but to also profit nicely from doing so.

    Without Bain’s rescue at the beginning of the pandemic (which was catastrophic for airlines globally), the situation may have become quite detrimental for travellers. It also avoided having the Australian taxpayer foot the bill for a bailout.

    Whether the airline’s customers end up better off will depend on what Virgin Australia ends up doing with the $685 million it raises, on top of the substantial profits it has recently been able to generate.

    Stronger competition for Qantas?

    Looking at the strategies of both Virgin Australia and its biggest competitor, Qantas, in recent years, it seems both have learned to love playing the duopoly game.

    Based on our own calculations, Virgin controls roughly 33% of Australia’s domestic seat capacity and the Qantas group (which includes Jetstar) much of the rest on the country’s core flight network.

    In the 2010s, the two airlines were out-competing themselves in adding capacity to the market, which drove down yields (or revenue per passenger) and nearly killed Virgin Australia 1.0.

    Now, Qantas and Virgin have new chief executives who understand both airlines can be very profitable if they show some (capacity) discipline in how many seats they create and sell.

    Better services

    For that reason, it’s likely not much will change in terms of competition, at least in the domestic market. But this is only true as far as capacity is concerned.

    It seems reasonable to assume Virgin’s raised capital will only support future growth if it is profitable. The majority of the funds will likely go towards fleet renewal and improvement of the airline’s product.

    For consumers, this wouldn’t necessarily mean lower airfares in the domestic market. But it would mean newer aircraft and enhanced services, which is a positive for both flyers and the environment.

    International departures

    Virgin Australia will become a more formidable competitor to Qantas, thanks to its newly formed relationship with international partner Qatar Airways and the additional cash from relisting.

    It will be interesting to observe what Qatar will do next and whether a new player – perhaps Singapore Airlines – will enter the scene and take a stake in the airline once Virgin Australia is trading publicly again.

    It would not be the first time an international airline has taken a stake in Virgin Australia, and could create some interesting dynamics.

    Another beneficiary is Virgin Australia’s management team, who’ve been somewhat shackled by the priority of getting the IPO off the ground. The IPO will free up management to deploy resources towards more longer-term priorities.

    Many will see a significant payday – it’s estimated staff are sitting on shares that could soon collectively be worth $180 million.

    Why now?

    Bain Capital has timed this IPO carefully. Virgin Australia has (in tandem with Qantas) produced a stellar financial performance in the last financial year. It may deliver an even better one in the current reporting period.

    To maximise returns, it is likely Bain did not want to waste the opportunity to capitalise on the moment. Global markets are still full of volatility and geopolitical uncertainty. What may diminish is the financial performance of the core business Bain Capital is trying to sell.

    At $2.90 a share, Virgin Australia will have a price-to-earnings ratio (used to assess how relatively expensive a share price is) of seven times its expected earnings this financial year. This is lower than Qantas’ ratio of ten times expected earnings this financial year.

    Profits are likely to remain high this year, with continuing strong demand, high yields and low jet fuel prices. The brokers and underwriting investment banks will use this to sell the story.

    IPOs can sometimes deliver those already holding shares in a company significant day-one windfall profits. In this case, however, Bain’s expertise in the venture capital market means it is unlikely to leave any money on the table.

    One may also argue while Virgin appears to be priced at a discount compared to Qantas, there may be legitimate reasons for the price differential, such as Qantas’ very profitable loyalty business.

    Given uncertainties around demand and geopolitical tensions, there is no guarantee the share price of Qantas will remain at record highs for too long, which means the opportunity to present Virgin shares as a bargain may be short-lived.

    In the long term, it is widely agreed airlines are by definition volatile investments and not necessarily something the average investor should have in their portfolio.

    Moving forward

    Symbolically, the decision for Virgin to use a new stock ticker – VGN instead of the old VAH – may avoid bringing back bad memories.

    Five years can be a lifetime in aviation, but maybe not to bond holders who got just 10 cents in the dollar and shareholders (including the large airline partners who held equity stakes) who got nothing when the airline collapsed in 2020.

    From a strategy perspective, it will be important for management to avoid history repeating itself with international airlines buying into Virgin and securing board seats.

    This can be one way of influencing the strategy of the carrier’s domestic arm to funnel more passengers to their own international flights.

    It is positive, for both Virgin Australia and the Australian aviation industry, that Bain Capital appears set to pull this off and that the revitalised airline is now truly Virgin Australia 2.0.

    Rico Merkert and his team of PhD students receive funding from the Australian Research Council through a discovery project and various research industry project, including with Thales and Air New Zealand. He has previously worked on research with and for international airlines, including Qantas and Virgin Australia.

    – ref. Virgin Australia is coming back to the share market. Here’s what this new chapter could mean – https://theconversation.com/virgin-australia-is-coming-back-to-the-share-market-heres-what-this-new-chapter-could-mean-258179

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why the global tax system needs fixing – podcast

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mend Mariwany, Producer, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

    Cagkan Sayin/Shutterstock

    For decades, multinational corporations have used sophisticated strategies to shift profits away from where they do business. As a result, countries around the world lose an estimated US$500 billion annually in unpaid taxes, with developing nations hit particularly hard.

    In the first of two episodes for The Conversation Weekly podcast called The 15% solution, we explore how companies have exploited loopholes in the global tax system. The episode features insights from Annette Alstadsæter, director of the Centre for Tax Research at the Norwegian University of Life Sciences, and Tarcisio Diniz Magalhaes, a professor of tax law at the University of Antwerp in Belgium.

    The problem goes beyond clever accounting. Our international tax rules were built for an industrial age where companies were physically present where they operated. But today’s tech giants can generate billions in revenue from users around the world, without having a single employee or office there, leaving those nations unable to tax those profits at all.

    In 2021, after years of international negotiations, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development unveiled a global tax deal designed to address tax avoidance through a minimum corporate tax rate of 15%. But will this new framework actually work? And what happens when major economies refuse to participate?

    Across two episodes, The 15% solution explores why a new global tax regime is needed, whether it can fix a broken system, and what’s at stake if it fails. Part two will be published on June 6.

    This episode of The Conversation Weekly was written and produced by Mend Mariwany. Gemma Ware is the executive producer. Mixing and sound design by Eloise Stevens and theme music by Neeta Sarl.

    Newsclips in this episode from NBC News, France24, BBC News, DW News and TRT World.

    Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here. A transcript of this episode is available on Apple Podcasts.

    Tarcísio Diniz Magalhães has received funding from the University of Antwerp Research Fund, Flanders Research Foundation, Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council in Canada and the Ford Foundation. He is a member of the Antwerp Tax Academy and DigiTax Centre of Excellence and is lead professor on International Taxation, Working Group on Tax Reform, ACMinas – Commercial and Business Association of Minas Gerais. Annette Alstadsæter is the Director of Skatteforsk – Centre for Tax Research which collaborates with the EU Tax Observatory on the Atlas of the Offshore World.

    – ref. Why the global tax system needs fixing – podcast – https://theconversation.com/why-the-global-tax-system-needs-fixing-podcast-257672

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Potter Museum of Art relaunches with the outstanding 65,000 Years, a Short History of Australian Art

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Roger Benjamin, Professor in Art History, University of Sydney

    Installation view of 65,000 Years: A Short History of Australian Art, Potter Museum of Art, the University of Melbourne, 2025. Photography by Christian Capurro

    In the late 1970s, when I was a fine arts student, the Melbourne University Gallery was just one room in a neo-gothic quadrangle. It wasn’t until the mid 1990s that the university commissioned Nonda Katzalidis to design a four-story concrete gallery on a narrow site fronting Swanston Street.

    The Ian Potter Museum of Art quickly became a vital centre for displaying diverse university collections – from classical antiquities to post-war bark paintings and contemporary art.

    The re-opening of the museum, after it closed for renovations in 2018, is an art event of major proportions with the architectural clout to match.

    The newest addition by Randall Marsh of Wood Marsh Architects transforms an adjacent red-brick building. A polished-steel portal gives onto stylish spaces: high vaulted ceilings, a light-filled atrium, new teaching rooms and luxurious bathrooms. There is now a serious restaurant with a long dining room, open kitchen and balcony café.

    Named “Residence” for its annual chef-in-residence program, starting with the Michelin-starred Robbie Noble, this may well become the go-to space for visitors, academics and students alike.

    Potter Museum of Art, the University of Melbourne.
    Photography by Christian Capurro.

    All expectations are exceeded by the opening exhibition 65,000 Years, a Short History of Australian Art. The title emphasises both the ancient Indigenous presence on this continent, and cheekily suggests that the main art that’s been made here is Aboriginal.

    As we recognise the monumental contributions of bark painting from the 1940s on, dot-painting from the 1970s on, and urban art starting in the 1980s, there is much to commend this view.

    Grand ambitions

    The exhibition, in eight main spaces over three floors, has an ambition and scope exceeding landmark surveys such as Dreamings: Art of Aboriginal Australia (1988) and Aratjara: Art of the First Australians (1993).

    There is a powerful curatorial will here, led by the legendary public intellectual and Indigenous scholar Marcia Langton, who initiated the project.

    She engaged one of the country’s most effective and knowledgeable curators in Judith Ryan, known for her series of field-defining exhibitions over four decades at the National Gallery of Victoria.

    Installation view of 65,000 Years: A Short History of Australian Art, Potter Museum of Art, the University of Melbourne, 2025.
    Photography by Christian Capurro

    Working together with associate curator Shanysa McConville, their exhibition is both politically astute in its management of tough historical issues, and visually stunning. The team has sourced superlative, large-scale examples of major artists’ work from private and public sources to sit alongside the university collections.

    It’s an exhibition that repays hours of looking, aided by the curators’ exemplary wall labels. A sumptuously illustrated 340-page tome published by Thames & Hudson Australia for the Potter supports a deeper dive. This includes 23 essays by both Indigenous and non-Indigenous writers who delve into specific groups of work.

    An example is the pungent essay by Grazia Gunn, who in 1973 exhibited the University’s rare barks from Groote Eylandt, presented in 1946 by the Jewish refugee Leonhard Adam.

    Installation view of 65,000 Years: A Short History of Australian Art, Potter Museum of Art, the University of Melbourne, 2025.
    Photography by Christian Capurro

    These barks can be seen again in the show, near a masterful assemblage of early barks from Yirrkala, painted in 1937 at the request of ethnographer Donald Thomson. This selection is unprecedented: a dozen barks with complete body designs for mardayin (mens’ ceremony), organised across clan groups.

    Truth telling

    Throughout 65,000 Years, there is a powerful truth-telling element on frontier wars and massacres. The early recognition of First Peoples’ work as art in the assembled barks goes some way to balancing Melbourne University’s own chapter of shame.

    In the side gallery, Langton and team present the role of Melbourne University medical anatomists, eugenicists and physical anthropologists in grave-robbing, and promoting the illicit collection and sale of Aboriginal remains, right up to the mid-1930s.

    On a big-screen video Langton, seated in a massive carved cathedral chair like a modern-day Delphic Oracle, dispassionately retells this grisly truth.

    The exhibition is comprehensive as it moves across regions and eras in a deft interplay with the building’s shifting levels. The ground floor (bar a stunning atrium enlaced with newly commissioned women’s baskets and “sun-mats”) deals with the imagery of contact from early colonial settlements.

    A group of French and British drawings of First Peoples are true portraits in the sense that the sitters are named. Late 19th century colour drawings by Barak or Mickey of Ulladulla are next to rare archival finds: distressing drawings of police reprisals by Oscar (Kuku-Yalanji), from 1898, and six lyrical drawings by Blak inmates of the Darwin Gaol, mounted together under the title “Dawn of Art” for display at the 1888 Melbourne Centenary Exhibition.

    Gordon Bennet (1955–2014), Big romantic painting (apotheosis of Captain Cook) 1993, synthetic polymer paint on canvas, 182×400.5×4cm.
    The University of Melbourne Art Collection

    Entering this colonial/decolonial zone, the glowering work of the late, great Gordon Bennett sets the precedent for the current historical citation and appropriation of colonial imagery.

    His example has inspired artists from Richard Bell and Brook Andrew to Megan Cope and Daniel Boyd.

    Bennett, faithfully represented by Melbourne’s Sutton Gallery through his life, was a McGeorge Fellow at Melbourne Uni in 1993, producing the groundbreaking Mirrorama installation with Groote Eylandt barks in opposition to classical busts. A gentle man and great thinker in art, Bennett then, as now, adds lustre to the Potter.

    65,000 Years, a Short History of Australian Art is at the Potter Museum of Art, Melbourne, until November 22.

    Roger Benjamin has previously worked as an art selector for the Vizard Collection at the Ian Potter Museum of Art, is an art collector and donor, and a colleague of the exhibition curators; he was not involved in the curation of this exhibition.

    – ref. The Potter Museum of Art relaunches with the outstanding 65,000 Years, a Short History of Australian Art – https://theconversation.com/the-potter-museum-of-art-relaunches-with-the-outstanding-65-000-years-a-short-history-of-australian-art-257640

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Victorian principals will soon be able to expel students for out-of-school behaviour – is this a good idea?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Kidson, Associate Professor in Educational Leadership, Australian Catholic University

    Getty Images/ Javier Zayaz

    When does a school’s responsibility for student behaviour end? Is it at 3pm when the bell goes? Or does a school still have to respond to harmful behaviour after hours?

    The Victorian government has announced new powers for government school principals to suspend or expel students for serious misbehaviour beyond the school grounds. The powers will begin in July, from the beginning of term 3.

    The state government says this will “address concerns around harmful behaviour that happens outside school hours […] but affects student and staff safety”.

    The new powers have a particular focus on online safety and follow similar moves in South Australia and New South Wales.

    What does this mean for schools and students?

    A blurry line

    The line between when “school” starts and finishes is blurry. Anti-social activities and their impacts don’t neatly fall at a convenient time or location.

    Cyberbullying – using the internet to be mean to a child or young person – has grown insidiously over the past decade and frequently takes place outside of the school grounds and after hours. This now includes deepfakes and AI-generated images.

    But the impacts of cyberbullying are very much felt during school hours. Bullying can lead to decreased academic performance – even in primary school. It can also lead to fractured social relationships. So schools are deeply involved. They may need to provide additional academic and welfare support for the student, as well as manage any social tensions and flare-ups on campus.

    As the eSafety Commission has warned, teachers can also face online abuse from students.

    So school leaders are needing to support both student and staff mental health.

    A changing legal climate

    But it’s not just online actions that blur the lines. In 2024, the NSW Supreme Court ruled in a case of an assault by a group of students against a 14-year-old student.

    Although the attack took place outside the school grounds, after the final bell, the court determined the NSW public high school had a duty “beyond the confines of the school boundaries and outside of its operating hours”. In part, this was based on previous known violence from one of the perpetrators.

    Schools now exist in a dynamic and complex set of ecosystems and the new Victorian powers acknowledge and respond to this reality.

    What does it mean for principals?

    For some school leaders, there may be relief they can deal with the consequences of the most severe and destructive actions. This could include online harassment or recent incidents such as rating students’ physical appearances.

    For others, there may be concerns this will add to their already stretched and pressured workloads.

    Research including the annual survey I run with colleagues, shows being an Australian school leader takes an ongoing emotional toll. The work often involves dealing with violence and abuse.

    Expelling kids should be a very last resort

    As a community, we can all agree schools should be places that are safe and free from violence of any kind.

    But the removal of any student from a school signals a series of breakdowns. This is why schools have policies and procedures to try and resolve these issues positively before the consequences become more severe. Schools will normally use intervention strategies such as counselling, behaviour monitoring and formal cautions before suspension emerges as a possibility. Sadly, these do not always result in changed behaviour.

    As consequences escalate, so too do their impacts.

    Students who begin to disengage from their learning can get caught in a spiral of increasing disengagement, leading to repeat instances of suspension and then expulsion. This can then chart a distressing path for some towards incarceration.

    So we need to focus on strategies which reduce this pathway.

    This includes initiatives that boost students’ engagement at school such as those in the Better and Fairer Schools Agreement (part of the new funding agreement between the federal and state governments). We also need funds to increase counsellors and psychologists in schools.

    Being able to expel students for out-of-school behaviour will help manage some of the symptoms of poor student behaviour. But unless the underlying causes are also addressed, expulsion will not resolve the issues – and ultimately transport the problem to another community.

    Paul Kidson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Victorian principals will soon be able to expel students for out-of-school behaviour – is this a good idea? – https://theconversation.com/victorian-principals-will-soon-be-able-to-expel-students-for-out-of-school-behaviour-is-this-a-good-idea-258188

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Top End’s tropical savannas are a natural wonder – but weak environment laws mean their future is uncertain

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Euan Ritchie, Professor in Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, School of Life & Environmental Sciences, Deakin University

    François Brassard

    The Top End of Australia’s Northern Territory contains an extensive, awe-inspiring expanse of tropical savanna landscapes. It includes well-known and much-loved regions such as Darwin, Kakadu National Park, Arnhem Land and Nitmiluk Gorge.

    These tropical savannas feature open forests and woodlands dominated by eucalypts and a diverse grassy understorey. They experience an intense monsoon-driven wet season and long dry season during which fire is common.

    The area is home to a spectacular range of plants and animals, including crocodiles, barramundi, speartooth sharks, the spectacularly coloured Leichhardt’s grasshopper and flocks of magpie geese. Some groups are extraordinarily diverse. Several thousand ant species are thought to live there – compared to just 1,000 species in South America’s Amazon basin.

    Australia’s tropical savannas are diverse and dynamic, shaped by fire and the cycle of wet and dry seasons.
    Brett Murphy

    Yet, despite their immense ecological and cultural significance, the NT’s tropical savannas face an uncertain future. The landscape is under increasing pressure from invasive species, more frequent and severe fires, climate change, mining, agriculture and development – including water extraction.

    Our new report outlines what should be done to ensure conservation and sustainable management of this unique and special region.

    A region in trouble

    As ecologists, we share a deep passion for tropical Northern Australia but fear for its future. To aid environmental policy and decision-making, we set out to describe the current condition and likely future of the NT’s tropical savannas. This involved identifying existing, emerging and possible future threats.

    We found biodiversity in decline. Many species, particularly mammals that were once common and widespread, have disappeared from much of the region. These include the northern quoll, brush-tailed rabbit-rat and black-footed tree-rat.

    Species such as the brush-tailed rabbit-rat have declined substantially and are now locally extinct in some areas.
    Cara Penton

    Habitats are degraded and ecosystems are showing signs of collapse. Feral animals are widespread. Cats prey on native wildlife. Feral pigs feast on turtle nests and trash plants in and around waterways, reducing water quality. Cattle, water buffalo, horses and donkeys eat their way through native plants, reducing habitat structure and complexity, aiding the establishment and spread of weeds.

    In many parts of the Top End, fires are becoming more frequent and severe. This is in part due to the increasing dominance of invasive grasses, particularly Gamba and buffel grass. Both grasses are highly flammable, increasing the risk and harm of fires.

    Longer and hotter dry seasons also increase fire risk and severity, as well as making water less available to wildlife due to higher rates of evaporation. Plants and animals also face greater heat stress and risk of dying during extended periods of extreme temperatures.

    The Top End is spectacular and rich in biodiversity.
    François Brassard

    The changing nature of land-clearing

    Land-clearing is increasing in the Top End, too. We estimate about 45,000 hectares of savanna habitat was destroyed between 2000 and 2020. That’s equivalent to an area roughly the size of 22,500 Melbourne Cricket Grounds.

    Another 146,000 hectares have approval to be cleared, and an additional 100,000 hectares could be cleared for an expanded cotton industry.

    It is not just the amount of clearing that matters, but where it occurs. The habitat mainly destroyed to date has been in higher rainfall areas between Darwin and Katherine. This is where most threatened species live. On average, the cleared areas overlapped with more than 12 nationally listed threatened species.

    What should be done?

    Our report shows current laws are insufficient to protect the Northern Territory’s tropical savannas. Evidence-based law reform is urgently needed.

    Decision-making must be collaborative, not controlled by individuals, based on sound science. It must also actively support and involve First Nations peoples and their goals.

    The Top End is awe inspiring but without greater enviromental protection its many values may be diminished.
    François Brassard

    The situation in the NT reflects broader calls to strengthen national environmental laws as a matter of urgency and greatly boost investment in conservation to achieve positive results for nature.

    Nature is the lynchpin of northern Australia. It characterises and nurtures the place, underpins and embraces Indigenous culture, is a major tourist attraction and helps make our country healthy. We need to recognise its value, and guard against its ongoing loss.

    Our report was independently reviewed by experts in the ecology and conservation of Northern Australia, Professors Richard Williams and Christopher Johnson.

    Euan Ritchie receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Victorian government’s Department of Energy, Environment, and Climate Action. Euan is a Councillor within the Biodiversity Council, a member of the Ecological Society of Australia and President of the Australian Mammal Society.

    The research underpinning this report was partly supported by the Environment Centre NT, the Wilderness Society and the World Wide Fund for Nature (Australia).

    Brett Murphy receives, or has recently received, funding from the Australian Research Council, Environment Centre NT, and the Northern Territory Government.

    John Woinarski is affiliated with Charles Darwin University, and has previously received research funding from the Australian Department of Climate Change, Energy and the Environment.

    – ref. The Top End’s tropical savannas are a natural wonder – but weak environment laws mean their future is uncertain – https://theconversation.com/the-top-ends-tropical-savannas-are-a-natural-wonder-but-weak-environment-laws-mean-their-future-is-uncertain-241893

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: GPs asking men about their behaviour in relationships could help reduce domestic violence

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kelsey Hegarty, Professor of Family Violence Prevention, The University of Melbourne

    Domestic violence is increasing in Australia. A new report shows one in three men have ever made a partner feel frightened or anxious. One in 11 have used physical violence when angry. And one in 50 have used sexual violence against their partner.

    The report, which I co-authored, estimates 120,000 men each year will start to use abuse and violence against their partner for the first time.

    So we need to engage these men before they start using abuse and violence. Our work with GPs suggests they can engage men early to prevent harm to families.

    Why use GPs?

    Men who use domestic violence frequently visit health services and need help to address harmful behaviours in relationships. These men are more likely to have increased alcohol use, substance abuse and mental health issues.

    Our new report found men with depressive symptoms, especially those who were severely depressed or suicidal, were at greater risk of starting to use abuse and violence.

    We know from experience with men’s behaviour change programs that men who volunteer for these programs are more likely to sustain change than men ordered to undertake them by the court.

    GPs can apply this knowledge by identifying men who have internal motivations for change, or who want to be a “better person”.

    This echoes a new community campaign that asks men “What kind of man do you want to be?”

    GPs and mental health practitioners have great potential to build conversations around behaviours in men’s relationships. However, discussions need to be tailored after learning more about the man’s identity and needs.

    How can GPs ask men about potential violence?

    GPs can begin by signposting:

    Often when I see people who are depressed, it’s helpful to understand what else is going on for them. Can I ask how things are at home?

    They then move to more specific questions:

    You mentioned that you have been disagreeing a bit with your partner. What happens when you disagree?

    Have you ever done something that you later regretted?

    The next step is gauging insight about their behaviour:

    Are you ever worried about your behaviour?

    Do you ever think your partner sometimes feels scared of you?

    The final step is offering support:

    There’s people you could see and online resources that are helpful for men who are worried about their behaviour in their relationship. Can I give you some info about it?

    How are men likely to respond?

    My research team explored men’s perceptions of seeking help for an unhealthy relationship and how they could be supported to recognise their behaviour and undertake change.

    Men we talked to said:

    [Asking] ‘Are you worried about your relationship?’ is good. It’s not asking, ‘Are you abusive? Are you violent?’

    They then wanted a response that motivates them:

    A tactful way to actually suggest, maybe this is for you, that might help. Because I know if someone tells me that you’ve got to go do this, I don’t want to do it. If someone can plant the seed in someone’s head it might help.

    To “plant the seed”, a trained and equipped GP could prepare and motivate men to accept a referral and address other needs, such as parenting issues and alcohol and drug use.

    Difficulties for GPs

    Many men who use violence never engage with intensive, face-to-face or online behaviour change programs. So GPs can play an important role in offering ongoing support and encouragement for men who use abuse and violence to change their behaviour.

    Some of the issues GPs have raised about doing this work include:

    It’s often hard, sort of balancing between throwing them a lifeline and putting a way forward, but at the same time really acknowledging and saying that violence is unacceptable – you have to find a way of engaging them in the process of saying, ‘Well look, this is wrong, we need to do something’, without losing them.

    If I start pushing, pressuring him, then he becomes closed up or defensive, then that’s obviously going to potentially harm my therapeutic relationship with him.

    Men find websites and apps useful

    Men are very open to websites or apps that provide a safe, private place for them to reflect on their harmful behaviours and consequences.

    My research team has developed a primary care response model called I-engage, which includes GPs engaging men and offering them an online tool to encourage men to seek help.

    We also developed the healthy relationship website, Better Man, from discussions with men.

    The men we interviewed suggested developing resources that:

    1. “don’t jump down my throat straight away”

    2. “help me realise what I’m becoming”

    3. “give hope for seeing a change in my future”

    4. “make it simple and accessible”.

    The resulting website increases men’s early engagement with help-seeking.
    Motivational techniques encourage men’s awareness and self-reflection, avoiding stigma and shame.

    The program includes four modules:

    • better relationships encourages a man to reflect on behaviours in his relationship

    • better values explores how men’s behaviours align with their values

    • better communication looks at how a man’s communication style may differ with a partner compared to others

    • finally, take better action reinforces help seeking, provides resources for parenting, alcohol and drug use, and mental health.

    GPs need training and funding for this work

    Early engagement through the health system requires GPs to be supported, trained and resourced to identify and respond to all members of a family.

    We have been calling for funding of a long consultation for a Family Safety Plan through a Medicare item number for a decade.

    The health system can engage men using behaviours in their relationships that cause harm to their partners and children.

    As one man who we worked with says:

    We’ve got to grab them before they hit their partner or their kids. We’ve got to be able to stop them getting to that stage. We’ve got to grab their attention. Let’s help them realise this is the person that they are, or they are becoming and it’s not what society is going to accept nowadays.

    For information and advice about family and intimate partner violence contact 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732). If you or someone you know is in immediate danger, contact 000. Men’s Referral Service (call 1300 766 491) offers advice and counselling to men looking to change their behaviour.

    Kelsey Hegarty leads the Safer Families Centre which receives Australian government funding to train GPs.

    – ref. GPs asking men about their behaviour in relationships could help reduce domestic violence – https://theconversation.com/gps-asking-men-about-their-behaviour-in-relationships-could-help-reduce-domestic-violence-258075

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Jack Ball wins the Ramsay Art Prize among a who’s who of Australian young contemporary artists

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Speck, Emerita Professor, Art History and Curatorship, University of Adelaide

    Jack Ball with Heavy Grit in Ramsay Art Prize 2025, Art Gallery of South Australia, Adelaide. Photo: Saul Steed

    Jack Ball, a Sydney-based trans artist, was awarded the 2025 Ramsay Art Prize at the Art Gallery of South Australia for an immersive installation Heavy Grit.

    The inspiration for the photo-collage and sculptural artwork stems directly from the artist’s exploration of the Australian Queer Archives in Melbourne – especially the scrapbooks covering the closeted decades of the 1950s to 1970s – and the merging of the past with present.

    The grainy print surface of the photo-collage elements, drawing on newspaper clippings, are arranged as four semi-abstract fluid shapes.

    Collage allows Ball to layer archival material with his own photo practice, to cut, crop, resize and imply ambiguity and possibility in the blurred imagery.

    The collages sit beside small photographs placed behind textured stained glass that seem like peep shows into queer culture, and are emblematic of Heavy Grit’s tension between what is revealed and what is hidden.

    Installation view: Jack Ball, born Darramurragal/Sydney 1986, Heavy Grit, 2024, Boorloo/Perth, inkjet prints on hemp, cotton and metallic rag, textured coloured glass, beeswax, activated charcoal, copper pipe, second-hand and remnant fabrics, acrylic paints, sand, rope.
    Courtesy of the artist and AVA, Boorloo/Perth, photo: Saul Steed

    Beneath are sand-filled soft sculptures, all of which suggest intimacy, stolen moments, the bright lights of Oxford Street, queer dress culture and much more, set off by loose flourishes of orange framing the collage. There is a delicate play of surface, scale and medium in an expansive installation that requires close, but slow looking.

    The Ramsay Prize

    The A$100,000 prize, awarded every two years, is open to artists under 40.

    It is the nation’s richest art prize for that age category and is funded in perpetuity by the Ramsay Foundation, for artwork in any medium.

    It is visionary in intent and reflects donors Diana and James Ramsay’s aim “to support and encourage contemporary Australian artists to make their best work at a pivotal point in their career”. And it has done just that.

    It commenced in 2017. Vincent Namatjira, who was awarded the prize in 2019, proceeded to win the Archibald Prize. Kate Bohunnis (2021) and Ida Sophia (2023) attribute winning the Ramsay to being career changing.

    Strong work on show

    There is much strong work across a range of media areas on show in this year’s exhibition.

    Installation view: Ramsay Art Prize 2025 featuring Alfred Lowe’s You’ve been on my mind, sister, Art Gallery of South Australia, Adelaide.
    Photo: Saul Steed

    Arrernte artist Alfred Lowe’s ceramic sculptural figures are adorned with bright pink raffia skirts. But beneath the colour and whimsy and contrasting materials is an exploration of his conflicted First Nations world of Central Australia and its charged politics.

    Tom Polo’s brightly coloured abstract and gestural paintings of fragmented and exaggerated forms suggest human vulnerability and the fluidity of daily life.

    Installation view: Ramsay Art Prize 2025 featuring Tom Polo’s learning to leave (once, and again), Art Gallery of South Australia, Adelaide.
    Photo: Saul Steed

    Bridie Gillman’s evocative Pink room, pink womb painting is a double-sided triangular installation which references ideas of place and belonging.

    It was produced in response to staying in an 18th century bedroom with pink walls in Portugal. The dramatic colour changes she observed according to the light conjured up notions of a deep maternal presence. She invokes this in her changing shades of pink on the canvases and base, accompanied by a subtle soundscape by Reuben Schafer.

    Shireen Taweel’s meticulous suspended copper objects delve into matters astronomical, the contribution of a Persian polymath’s foundational work in trigonometry and the precision required to locate stars and other celestial bodies.

    She emulates that precision in her intriguing copper installation, Al-Tusi preferred to rely on perfect circles instead, as an instrument of astronomical observation. Her pierced motifs in the copper are informed by precise calculations.

    Installation view: Ramsay Art Prize 2025 featuring Jason Phu’s the deepest love in the deepest well of despair and Shireen Taweel’s Al-Tusi preferred to rely on perfect circles instead, Art Gallery of South Australia, Adelaide.
    Photo: Saul Steed

    Chinese-Australian artist Jason Phu draws on his cultural heritage in his large painting. Comic-like figures enact a narrative across time, as occurs in more serious Chinese Scroll paintings.

    Phu inverts the tradition, adds a vernacular touch, and oscillates between humour and grim despair. His central figure in red enacts the text above: “the deepest love, the deepest despair”.

    David Attwood’s whimsical kinetic sculptural assemblage featuring a motorised house cleaning sponge harks back to the wacky idea of a self-cleaning house, and touches on the gendered nature of housework.

    Liam Fleming was schooled in the refined precision and techniques of making production line glass. Here, his slumped glass sculptural work come from his “letting go” of this exactness.

    Installation view: Ramsay Art Prize 2025 featuring Liam Fleming’s Transitory Series, Art Gallery of South Australia, Adelaide.
    Photo: Saul Steed

    Greek-Australian queer artist and designer Jordon Gogos’ impressive large tapestry, Time Machine, is made from repurposed and recycled textiles, and explores memory and identity.

    His deft mix of chance and design – and extending the possibilities of fabric itself by layering, embroidering and felting – produces a compelling and playful piece.

    These are just eight of the artworks on show in which the experimentation, range, diversity and rich cultural mix point to a vibrant contemporary art scene.

    What’s left unsaid

    But of the 22 finalists – a veritable who’s who of the contemporary art scene – only one artist reflects on war in a world beset by conflict.

    Ukrainian-born Stanislava Pinchuk is currently Australia’s official war artist in Ukraine. Her moving image work, Theatre of war, focuses on three such “theatres”: the siege of Sarajevo, the war in Ukraine, and Homer’s account of the Trojan war in the Iliad.

    Installation view: Ramsay Art Prize 2025 featuring Stanislava Pinchuk’s The Theatre of War, Art Gallery of South Australia, Adelaide.
    Photo: Saul Steed

    But where is the bravery of earlier Ramsay entries such as Hoda Afshar’s moving photographic portraits of our courageous whistleblowers in Agonistes, shown in the Ramsay Art Prize exhibition of 2020?

    There were close to 600 entries this year, so it seems odd that no-one else was selected for the final cut whose work had overt political content such as the war in Gaza.

    The Ramsay Art Prize 2025 is at the Art Gallery of South Australia until August 31.

    Catherine Speck has received funding from the ARC to investigate Australian art exhibitions (with Joanna Mendelssohn, Catherine De Lorenzo and Alison Inglis).

    – ref. Jack Ball wins the Ramsay Art Prize among a who’s who of Australian young contemporary artists – https://theconversation.com/jack-ball-wins-the-ramsay-art-prize-among-a-whos-who-of-australian-young-contemporary-artists-257326

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Resignation of PM’s press secretary highlights gaps in NZ law on covert recording and harassment

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cassandra Mudgway, Senior Lecturer in Law, University of Canterbury

    Getty Images

    The sudden resignation this week of one of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s senior press secretaries was politically embarrassing, but also raises questions about how New Zealand law operates in such cases.

    A Stuff investigation revealed the Beehive staffer allegedly recorded audio of sessions with sex workers, and whose phone contained images and video of women at the gym, supermarket shopping, and filmed through a window while getting dressed.

    The man at the centre of the allegations has reportedly apologised and said he had sought professional help for his behaviour last year.

    The police have said the case did not meet the threshold for prosecution. And this highlights the difficulties surrounding existing laws when it comes to non-consensual recording, harassment and image-based harm.

    Describing his “shock” at the allegations against his former staffer, the prime minister said he was “open to revisiting” the laws around intimate audio recordings without consent. If that happens, there are several key areas to consider.

    Are covert audio recordings illegal?

    New Zealand law prohibits the non-consensual creation, possession and distribution of intimate visual recordings under sections 216H to 216J of the Crimes Act 1961. These provisions aim to protect individuals’ privacy and bodily autonomy in situations where they have a reasonable expectation of privacy.

    The definition of “intimate visual recording” under these sections is limited to visual material, such as photographs, video or digital images, and does not extend to audio-only recordings.

    As a result, covert audio recordings of sex workers engaged in sexual activity would fall outside the scope of these offences, even though the harm caused is similar.

    If such audio or video recordings were ever shared with others or posted online, that may be a criminal offence under the Harmful Digital Communications Act 2015 – if it can be proved this was done with the intention to cause serious emotional distress.

    What about covert filming of women in public places?

    Covert recording of women working out or walking down a road, including extreme closeups of clothed body parts, would unlikely meet the definition of “intimate visual recording”.

    That is because they do not typically involve nudity, undergarments or private bodily activities, and they often occur in public places where there is no reasonable expectation of privacy.

    Even extreme closeups may not meet the threshold unless they are taken from beneath or through clothing in a way that targets the genitals, buttocks or breasts. While they are invasive and degrading, they may remain lawful.

    By contrast, it is more likely that covert filming of women dressing or undressing through a window would satisfy the definition, depending on where the women were. For example, were they in a place where they would have a reasonable expectation of privacy?

    If the non-consensual recording captures a person in a state of undress, then the creation of such images or videos could be considered a crime.

    Are any of these behaviours “harassment”?

    Under the Harassment Act 1997, “harassment” is defined as a pattern of behaviour directed at a person that involves at least two specified acts within a 12-month period, or a single continuing act.

    These acts can include following, watching, or any conduct that causes the person to fear for their safety. Although covert filming or audio recording is not expressly referenced, the acts of following and watching within alleged voyeuristic behaviour, if repeated, could fall within the definition.

    But harassment is only a crime where it is done with the intent or knowledge that the behaviour will likely cause a person to fear for their safety. This is a threshold that might be difficult to prove in voyeurism or similar cases.

    Covert recording of women’s bodies, whether audio or visual, is part of a broader pattern of gender-based violence facilitated by technology. Feminist legal scholars have framed this as “image-based sexual abuse”. The term captures how non-consensual creation, recording, sharing or threatening to share intimate content violates sexual autonomy and dignity.

    This form of harm disproportionately affects women and often reflects gender power imbalances rooted in misogyny, surveillance and control. The concept has become more mainstream and is referenced by law and policymakers in Australia and the United Kingdom.

    Has New Zealand law kept up?

    Some forms of image-based sexual abuse are criminalised in New Zealand, but others are not. What we know of this case suggests some key gaps remain – largely because law reform has been piecemeal and reactive.

    For example, the intimate visual recording offences in the Crimes Act were introduced in 2006 when wider access to digital cameras led to an upswing in covert filming (of women showering or “upskirting”, for example).

    Therefore, the definition is limited to these behaviours. But the law was drafted before later advances in smartphone technology, now owned by many more people than in 2006.

    Generally, laws are thought of as “living documents”, able to be read in line with the development of new or advanced technology. But when the legislation itself is drafted with certain technology or behaviours in mind, it is not necessarily future-proofed.

    Where to now?

    There is a risk to simply adding more offences to plug the gaps (and New Zealand is not alone in having to deal with this challenge). Amending the Crimes Act to include intimate audio recordings might address one issue. But new or advanced technologies will inevitably raise others.

    Rather than responding to each new form of abuse as it arises, it would be better to take a step back and develop a more principled, future-focused criminal law framework.

    That would mean defining offences in a technology-neutral way. Grounded in core values such as privacy, autonomy and consent, they would be more capable of adapting to new contexts and tools.

    Only then can the law provide meaningful protection against the evolving forms of gendered harm facilitated by digital technologies.

    Cassandra Mudgway does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Resignation of PM’s press secretary highlights gaps in NZ law on covert recording and harassment – https://theconversation.com/resignation-of-pms-press-secretary-highlights-gaps-in-nz-law-on-covert-recording-and-harassment-258274

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Final counting shows polls understated Labor in 2025 election almost as much as they overstated it in 2019

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    With almost all primary votes now counted to two-party preferred (as I explained on May 29), Labor has won the national two-party vote by a 55.3–44.7 margin, although this may drop to a 55.2–44.8 margin once the remaining votes from Bradfield come in.

    Labor’s two-party share is over two points higher than in any poll taken in the final week before the election.

    Final primary votes were 34.6% Labor (up 2.0% since the 2022 election), 31.8% Coalition (down 3.9%), 12.2% Greens (steady), 6.4% One Nation (up 1.4%), 1.9% Trumpet of Patriots (down 2.2% from United Australia Party in 2022), 7.4% independents (up 2.1%) and 5.7% others (up 0.6%).

    The table below shows the primary vote and two-party estimates of all ten polls conducted in the final week before the election, with the election results at the bottom. When polls gave a breakdown for Trumpet of Patriots, independents and others, I’ve combined these for an all Others total. Bold numbers in the table represent estimates that were within 1% of the result.

    Fieldwork dates for the Ipsos poll were not released, but it was published in The Daily Mail on election day, so it was presumably taken in the last week. Published primary votes in this poll included 5% undecided, which I have redistributed proportionally to the parties listed.

    In 2019, all the polls gave Labor between a 51–49 and a 52–48 lead. The actual result was a Coalition win by 51.5–48.5.

    This year, all polls had Labor between a 51–49 and a 53–47 lead and the actual result was a Labor win by 55.3–44.7. The two polls (Freshwater and Ipsos) that had Labor below a 52–48 lead were particularly poor.

    The polls understated Labor’s primary vote and overstated the Coalition’s. Labor won the primary vote by 2.7 points, when nearly all polls had the Coalition ahead (Redbridge was tied). The Freshwater and Ipsos polls performed badly in overstating the Coalition’s vote.

    The Greens were mostly overstated, while One Nation was overstated by every pollster except Morgan.

    Preference flow assumptions compounded the polls’ problems. If I plug the election primary votes into my 2022 preference flows spreadsheet, I get a Labor two-party lead of 55.3–44.7, the same as the actual result.

    Newspoll had higher One Nation preference flows to the Coalition than in 2022. If they’d used 2022 flows, Labor would have led by about 53–47. YouGov used data from its MRP polls that gave the Coalition both a higher share of One Nation and Greens preferences than in 2022. If they’d used 2022 flows, Labor would have led by 54.2–45.8.

    We won’t have data on preference flows by party for some time, but it’s likely that One Nation preferences did become more pro-Coalition. However, Greens and independent preferences compensated by becoming more pro-Labor.

    Respondent-allocated polls from Essential, Resolve, Freshwater, Redbridge and Spectre all suggested this would be the case. YouGov may have used MRP polls earlier in the year to allocate preferences. Labor was doing badly on preferences earlier.

    The poll graph that I used in my pre-election articles is below. There was a surge to Labor in March and April. Labor had been polling poorly from December to February and may have lost an election held then. The polls told us that Labor had recovered to an election-winning position, but they understated the magnitude of that win.

    The best two polls were not the final polls, but a Morgan poll taken two weeks from the election that gave Labor a 55.5–44.5 lead. Morgan’s final two polls both gave Labor a 53–47 lead. The other good poll was a Redbridge poll of 20 marginal seats that gave Labor a 54.5–45.5 lead a week before the election (actual result 54.8–45.2 to Labor across these seats).

    Redbridge would have been better if they’d stuck with their 54.5–45.5 to Labor in the marginal seats in this poll, but they dropped back to 53–47 to Labor in the poll published on election day.

    The final YouGov MRP poll predicted Labor would win 84 of the 150 seats, understating Labor by ten seats. An exit poll of early voters from the first two days of early in-person voting correctly had swings to Labor.

    While public polling was poor at this election, Liberal internal polling was worse. This article in The Australian published the day before the election said the Coalition was confident of gaining ten seats from Labor. Labor actually gained 14 seats from the Coalition.

    The worst seat polls

    I’m not going to relate every seat poll in this election, but there were some seat poll stinkers.

    I referred to JWS seat polls of Ryan, Brisbane and Griffith on April 18. These polls gave the Liberal National Party a 57–43 lead over Labor in Ryan, with the Greens a distant third on primary votes. In Brisbane, Labor led the LNP by 51–49. In Griffith, Labor led the LNP by 51–49, but the LNP led the Greens by 53–47.

    In Ryan, the Greens made the final two and defeated the LNP by 53.3–46.7. If Labor had made the final two, they would have won by 57.8–42.2. In Brisbane, Labor crushed the LNP by 59.0–41.0. In Griffith, Labor and the Greens made the final two, and a two-party count between Labor and the LNP had Labor winning by 65.9–34.1.

    I referred to a Compass seat poll of McMahon on April 11. This poll gave right-wing independent Matt Camenzuli 41% of the primary vote, the Liberals 20% and Labor incumbent Chris Bowen just 19%. Bowen actually won 45.5% of the primary vote, the Liberals 26.8% and Camenzuli just 9.8%.

    I referred to KJC polls of four seats on April 27. These polls gave the Liberals a 49–45 lead including undecided in Tangney and a 46–41 lead in Blair. In Richmond, the Greens led Labor by 39–34. In Hunter, Labor led the Nationals by 45–41.

    Labor actually won Tangney by 57.0–43.0 and Blair by 55.7–44.3. In Richmond, the Greens did not make the final two, and Labor would have beaten them easily if they had. In Hunter, One Nation instead of the Nationals made the final two, with Labor winning by 59.0–41.0. Had the Nationals made the final two, Labor would have won by a similar 59.5–40.5.

    Recount results and Greens senator defects to Labor

    In Liberal-held Bradfield, Teal Nicolette Boele defeated the Liberals by 26 votes after a recount, overturning an eight-vote Liberal lead on the original count. The Liberals could challenge this result in the courts, but Boele will be seated until the courts decide.

    In Goldstein, the partial recount of primary votes for Teal incumbent Zoe Daniel and Liberal Tim Wilson was completed on May 31. Wilson won by 175 votes, down from 260 before the recount started.

    With these results, the final seat outcome of the election is 94 Labor out of 150, 43 Coalition and 13 for all Others. That’s a Labor majority of 38 by the UK method.

    Western Australian Greens Senator Dorinda Cox, who was elected in 2022, defected to Labor on Monday. This gives Labor 29 of the 76 senators and the Greens ten. Labor will still need either the Coalition or the Greens to reach the 39 votes required for a Senate majority. Cox’s six-year term will expire in June 2028.

    South Korea and Poland elections

    On Tuesday the centre-left candidate won the South Korean presidential election that had been called early after the previous right-wing president was impeached and removed from office. On Sunday the Law and Justice (PiS) candidate won the Polish presidential election, defeating a pro-Western centrist.

    Donald Trump’s US national ratings have improved since his nadir in late April. I wrote about these events for The Poll Bludger on Wednesday.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Final counting shows polls understated Labor in 2025 election almost as much as they overstated it in 2019 – https://theconversation.com/final-counting-shows-polls-understated-labor-in-2025-election-almost-as-much-as-they-overstated-it-in-2019-256981

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The pursuit of eternal youth goes back centuries. Modern cosmetic surgery is turning it into a reality – for rich people

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Margaret Gibson, Associate Professor of Sociology, Griffith University

    The Conversation, CC BY-SA

    Kris Jenner’s “new” face sparked myriad headlines about how she can look so good at 69 years old. While she’s not confirmed what sort of procedures she’s undergone, speculation abounds.

    As a US reality TV personality, socialite and Kardashian matriarch, Jenner has long curated her on-screen identity. Her fame and fortune are intimately tied to a multinational cosmetics industry that has, for centuries, bartered in the illusion of timeless beauty.

    The pursuit of cosmetic enhancement can be traced back as far as Ancient Egypt, reminding us the desire to look younger is hardly new.

    But while many women try in vain to battle the ageing process, Jenner is an example of someone who’s actually succeeded, at least visually. What does that mean for the rest of us?

    Decades of surgeries

    Modern cosmetic plastic surgery has its roots in compassion. It was developed to help disfigured first world war soldiers rebuild their faces and identities.

    But this origin story has been sidelined. Today, aesthetic procedures are overwhelmingly pursued by women and marketed as lifestyle enhancements rather than medical interventions.

    Advancements in reconstructive surgery were made after both world wars with treatments on wounded soldiers.
    AFP/Getty Images

    Plastic surgery, once considered extreme or shameful, began to gain popularity in the 1960s, and is now widespread.

    Hollywood has long played a role in shaping these standards. During its Golden Age, stars like Marilyn Monroe and John Wayne are reported to have undergone cosmetic surgeries – rhinoplasty (nose jobs), chin implants, facelifts – to preserve their screen personas.

    Even before Instagram, before-and-after images were a cultural obsession, often used to shame or expose.

    From taboo to trend

    The digital age has further normalised cosmetic enhancements, with social media influencers and celebrities promoting procedures alongside beauty products.

    It’s estimated Jenner spent upwards of US$130,000 (around A$200,000) on cosmetic interventions, resulting in a look that some media outlets suggest places her in her 30s.

    There’s been similar speculation about Lindsay Lohan, Christina Aguilera and Anne Hathaway, though none of the women have confirmed anything themselves.

    On Jenner, social media users are split. Some offer aspirational praise (“If I had the money, I’d get it all done!”), while others criticise her rejection of “ageing gracefully”.

    Today, celebrities increasingly control the narrative. Jenner has embraced her past cosmetic transformations, sharing them openly on social media and in interviews. The taboo is evolving.

    Yet many stars, including Courtney Cox, Ariana Grande, and Mickey Rourke, have spoken openly about regrets and the psychological toll of these procedures. Even with agency, the pressure remains immense.

    Youth as a cultural ideal

    This obsession with agelessness reflects a deeper societal discomfort with visible ageing, particularly in women.

    Celebrities, with access to elite medical professionals and procedures, seem to cheat time.

    Yet the outcome of is often disorienting: when Jenner appears younger than her children, the generational lines blur.

    This erasure of age difference entrenches youth as an end in itself. It also destabilises how we perceive kinship and mortality.

    Supermodel Bella Hadid has said she regrets getting a rhinoplasty as a teenager. Of Palestinian descent, she said “I wish I’d kept the nose of my ancestors”.

    In my own research, I’ve argued cosmetic enhancement is tied to a cultural denial of death.

    The ageing isn’t the problem – it’s our refusal to accept it.

    The desperate clinging to youth reflects a collective resistance to change. Celebrity culture and consumer capitalism exploit this vulnerability, making age a problem to be solved rather than a life stage to be honoured.

    We should mourn our ageing, not erase it. In another world, we could witness it, share it, and celebrate its quiet, powerful beauty.

    So what about us?

    But that’s not the world many live in, and the pressure extends beyond Hollywood.

    With filters, apps, and social media platforms, ordinary people also curate and enhance their images, playing their part in a fantasy of perfection.

    A recent study looked at the way young Australians use selfie editing tools. It found the widespread use of such apps have a significant effect on the body image of young people.



    Read more:
    ‘Perfect bodies and perfect lives’: how selfie-editing tools are distorting how young people see themselves

    The line between self-care and self-deception has never been blurrier. We all want to present the best version of ourselves, even if reality slips into illusion.

    So while women have long tried to outrun visible ageing, whether that be through anti-wrinkle creams or more invasive means, Jenner is an example of something relatively rare: a woman who’s actually managed to do it.

    In doing so, she and her celebrity counterparts set a new youthful beauty standard in what ageing should (or shouldn’t) look like.

    And while that standard may be felt by a variety of women, few will be able to achieve it.

    Extremely wealthy beauty moguls like Kris Jenner can afford elite treatments, while most people face growing financial pressure and a cost-of-living crisis. The divide isn’t just aesthetic – it’s economic.

    Beauty, in this context, is both a product and a privilege.

    And of course, judgement of women’s appearances remains a powerful force for discrediting their political, social, and moral worth. For every bit of praise there is for Jenner’s “youthful” appearance, there are videos claiming she’s “ruined her face” and questioning of whether she should spend so much money on such a cause.

    As long as gender inequality persists and beauty remains a currency of value, the pressure to conform will endure.

    Margaret Gibson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The pursuit of eternal youth goes back centuries. Modern cosmetic surgery is turning it into a reality – for rich people – https://theconversation.com/the-pursuit-of-eternal-youth-goes-back-centuries-modern-cosmetic-surgery-is-turning-it-into-a-reality-for-rich-people-257969

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: One year ago, Australia scrapped a key equity in STEM program. Where are we now?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maria Vieira, Lecturer, Education Futures, University of South Australia

    ThisIsEngineering/Pexels

    In June 2024, the Australian government ended the Women in STEM Ambassador program. The decision followed a report that urged a broader, intersectional approach to diversity in the fields of science, technology, engineering and maths (STEM).

    For six years, under the leadership of astrophysicist Lisa Harvey-Smith, the program contributed to research, tools and resources aimed at breaking down structural barriers that limit women’s and girls’ participation in STEM education and careers.

    At the time, the move to scrap it was framed as a step toward more inclusive progress.

    Does that reasoning still hold one year later? As diversity and inclusion efforts face global cutbacks, it’s more important than ever to reflect on where Australia is heading. Are we truly building a more equitable STEM future?

    Why diversity in STEM matters

    Structural barriers have long limited participation in STEM for women, people of colour, First Nations communities, people with disabilities, and those in low socioeconomic groups.

    Such barriers include stereotypes and bias, a lack of role models, limited flexible work arrangements, and inadequate parental leave and childcare support.

    If we achieved equity in STEM, everyone – including entire groups who have been systemically excluded in the past – would have equal access to opportunities, resources and recognition.

    For a young Aboriginal woman studying engineering in a regional town, it would mean the same chance to apply for internships at top firms as peers who live in cities. She would have the same access to well-equipped labs and mentoring programs, and an equal likelihood of being nominated for academic awards or leadership roles.

    Improving diversity in STEM is also critical to Australia’s capacity for innovation, particularly as we face global challenges such as climate change, disruption from artificial intelligence, and geopolitical instability.

    Diverse STEM teams are more likely to approach problems from multiple perspectives. They embody democratic values, driving innovation and strengthening resilience in the face of complex issues.

    Yet, despite decades of gender-focused programs, meaningful progress has been limited. STEM Equity Monitor 2024 data show that while the number of women in STEM has increased, only 37% of university STEM enrolments are women. When it comes to STEM jobs in Australia, only 15% are occupied by women.

    If not an ambassador, then what?

    The lack of diversity in STEM is driven by systemic barriers such as persistent stereotypes, a shortage of diverse role models, and unequal access to opportunities.

    An independent report released in February 2024 recommended looking at diversity in a more inclusive way.

    Instead of focusing only on women in STEM, it suggested we consider how different aspects of a person’s identity – such as their gender, race, or background – can combine and affect their experience.

    This means some people may face additional challenges. For example, a migrant woman of colour in STEM might deal with more obstacles than a white woman in the same field, because of the way her different identities overlap.

    So … where are we now?

    While adopting this view is commendable, the practical changes that have happened over the past year raise important questions about whether Australia is truly moving toward a more inclusive STEM landscape.

    In August 2024, the government announced a $38 million boost to STEM programs, aligning with recommendations from the independent report. Two long-standing programs were closed, while seven other initiatives received additional funding.

    However, many of the funded programs still leave major gaps.

    For instance, one of the few initiatives targeting school-aged students, the National Youth Science Forum, is mostly limited to Years 11 and 12. Yet we know that girls’ disengagement from STEM begins as early as primary school.

    Similarly, while the Superstars of STEM initiative continues to receive investment, its focus remains on “inspiring” students through role models.

    Inspiration alone is not enough. We need a sustained, systemic approach that changes attitudes and builds structures to support and retain diverse students throughout their STEM journey.

    A key tool may have been left underfunded

    Of all the initiatives announced, the STEM Equity Monitor received the smallest share of funding, despite being the key tool for tracking Australia’s progress on diversity in STEM.

    The 2024 report still relies on some data last updated in 2022, reflecting a lack of commitment to maintaining a consistent, annual pulse on equity outcomes. Moreover, the monitor doesn’t provide intersectional analysis, limiting its ability to inform targeted, evidence-based actions.

    In principle, it still makes sense to shift Australia’s strategy on diversity in STEM towards a more intersectional and systemic approach. However, the practical steps taken so far don’t seem to align with that vision. Funding decisions, program closures, and limited investment in data and accountability tools suggest a disconnect between intent and implementation.

    Without clear action plans, inclusive design – which ensures STEM initiatives genuinely serve people of all backgrounds – and robust monitoring, there is a risk the new direction will be symbolic rather than transformative.

    Maria Vieira has previously received funding from the Women in STEM and Entrepreneurship Round 3 Grant from the Australian Government.

    – ref. One year ago, Australia scrapped a key equity in STEM program. Where are we now? – https://theconversation.com/one-year-ago-australia-scrapped-a-key-equity-in-stem-program-where-are-we-now-257977

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The secret to Ukraine’s battlefield successes against Russia – it knows wars are never won in the past

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Matthew Sussex, Associate Professor (Adj), Griffith Asia Institute; and Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University

    The iconoclastic American general Douglas Macarthur once said that “wars are never won in the past”.

    That sentiment certainly seemed to ring true following Ukraine’s recent audacious attack on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, using small, cheap drones housed in wooden pods and transported near Russian airfields in trucks.

    The synchronised operation targeted Russian Air Force planes as far away as Irkutsk – more than 5,000 kilometres from Ukraine. Early reports suggest around a third of Russia’s long-range bombers were either destroyed or badly damaged. Russian military bloggers have put the estimated losses lower, but agree the attack was catastrophic for the Russian Air Force, which has struggled to adapt to Ukrainian tactics.

    This particular attack was reportedly 18 months in the making. To keep it secret was an extraordinary feat. Notably, Kyiv did not inform the United States that the attack was in the offing. The Ukrainians judged – perhaps understandably – that sharing intelligence on their plans could have alerted the Kremlin in relatively short order.

    Ukraine’s success once again demonstrates that its armed forces and intelligence services are the modern masters of battlefield innovation and operational security.

    Finding new solutions

    Western military planners have been carefully studying Ukraine’s successes ever since its forces managed to blunt Russia’s initial onslaught deep into its territory in early 2022, and then launched a stunning counteroffensive that drove the Russian invaders back towards their original starting positions.

    There have been other lessons, too, about how the apparently weak can stand up to the strong. These include:

    • attacks on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vanity project, the Kerch Bridge, linking the Russian mainland to occupied Crimea (the last assault occurred just days ago)

    • the relentless targeting of Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure with drones

    • attacks against targets in Moscow to remind the Russian populace about the war, and

    • its incursion into the Kursk region, which saw Ukrainian forces capture around 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory.

    On each occasion, Western defence analysts have questioned the wisdom of Kyiv’s moves.

    Why invade Russia using your best troops when Moscow’s forces continue laying waste to cities in Ukraine?

    Why hit Russia’s energy infrastructure if it doesn’t markedly impede the battlefield mobility of Russian forces?

    And why attack symbolic targets like bridges when it could provoke Putin into dangerous “escalation”?

    The answer to this is the key to effective innovation during wartime. Ukraine’s defence and security planners have interpreted their missions – and their best possible outcomes – far more accurately than conventional wisdom would have thought.

    Above all, they have focused on winning the war they are in, rather than those of the past. This means:

    • using technological advancements to force the Russians to change their tactics

    • shaping the information environment to promote their narratives and keep vital Western aid flowing, and

    • deploying surprise attacks not just as ways to boost public morale, but also to impose disproportionate costs on the Russian state.

    The impact of Ukraine’s drone attack

    In doing so, Ukraine has had an eye for strategic effects. As the smaller nation reliant on international support, this has been the only logical choice.

    Putin has been prepared to commit a virtually inexhaustible supply of expendable cannon fodder to continue his country’s war ad infinitum. Russia has typically won its wars this way – by attrition – albeit at a tremendous human and material cost.

    That said, Ukraine’s most recent surprise attack does not change the overall contours of the war. The only person with the ability to end it is Putin himself.

    That’s why Ukraine is putting as much pressure as possible on his regime, as well as domestic and international perceptions of it. It is key to Ukraine’s theory of victory.

    This is also why the latest drone attack is so significant. Russia needs its long-range bomber fleet, not just to fire conventional cruise missiles at Ukrainian civilian and infrastructure targets, but as aerial delivery systems for its strategic nuclear arsenal.

    The destruction of even a small portion of Russia’s deterrence capability has the potential to affect its nuclear strategy. It has increasingly relied on this strategy to threaten the West.

    A second impact of the attack is psychological. The drone attacks are more likely to enrage Putin than bring him to the bargaining table. However, they reinforce to the Russian military that there are few places – even on its own soil – that its air force can act with operational impunity.

    The surprise attacks also provide a shot in the arm domestically, reminding Ukrainians they remain very much in the fight.

    Finally, the drone attacks send a signal to Western leaders. US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, for instance, have gone to great lengths to tell the world that Ukraine is weak and has “no cards”. This action shows Kyiv does indeed have some powerful cards to play.

    That may, of course, backfire: after all, Trump is acutely sensitive to being made to look a fool. He may look unkindly at resuming military aid to Ukraine after being shown up for saying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would be forced to capitulate without US support.

    But Trump’s own hubris has already done that for him. His regular claims that a peace deal is just weeks away have gone beyond wishful thinking and are now monotonous.

    Unsurprisingly, Trump’s reluctance to put anything approaching serious pressure on Putin has merely incentivised the Russian leader to string the process along.

    Indeed, Putin’s insistence on a maximalist victory, requiring Ukrainian demobilisation and disarmament without any security guarantees for Kyiv, is not diplomacy at all. It is merely the reiteration of the same unworkable demands he has made since even before Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

    However, Ukraine’s ability to smuggle drones undetected onto an opponent’s territory, and then unleash them all together, will pose headaches for Ukraine’s friends, as well as its enemies.

    That’s because it makes domestic intelligence and policing part of any effective defence posture. It is a contingency democracies will have to plan for, just as much as authoritarian regimes, who are also learning from Ukraine’s lessons.

    In other words, while the attack has shown up Russia’s domestic security services for failing to uncover the plan, Western security elites, as well as authoritarian ones, will now be wondering whether their own security apparatuses would be up to the job.

    The drone strikes will also likely lead to questions about how useful it is to invest in high-end and extraordinarily expensive weapons systems when they can be vulnerable. The Security Service of Ukraine estimates the damage cost Russia US$7 billion (A$10.9 billion). Ukraine’s drones, by comparison, cost a couple of thousand dollars each.

    At the very least, coming up with a suitable response to those challenges will require significant thought and effort. But as Ukraine has repeatedly shown us, you can’t win wars in the past.

    Matthew Sussex has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Atlantic Council, the Fulbright Foundation, the Carnegie Foundation, the Lowy Institute and various Australian government departments and agencies.

    – ref. The secret to Ukraine’s battlefield successes against Russia – it knows wars are never won in the past – https://theconversation.com/the-secret-to-ukraines-battlefield-successes-against-russia-it-knows-wars-are-never-won-in-the-past-258172

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Unprecedented heat in the North Atlantic Ocean kickstarted Europe’s hellish 2023 summer. Now we know what caused it

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Matthew England, Scientia Professor and Deputy Director of the ARC Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, UNSW Sydney

    Westend61/Getty Images

    In June 2023, a record-breaking marine heatwave swept across the North Atlantic Ocean, smashing previous temperature records.

    Soon after, deadly heatwaves broke out across large areas of Europe, and torrential rains and flash flooding devastated parts of Spain and Eastern Europe. That year Switzerland lost more than 4% of its total glacier volume, and severe bushfires broke out around the Mediterranean.

    It wasn’t just Europe that was impacted. The coral reefs of the Caribbean were bleaching under severe heat stress. And hurricanes, fuelled by ocean heat, intensified into disasters. For example, Hurricane Idalia hit Florida in August 2023 – causing 12 deaths and an estimated US$3.6 billion in damages.

    Today, in a paper published in Nature, we uncover what drove this unprecedented marine heatwave.

    A strange discovery

    In a strange twist to the global warming story, there is a region of the North Atlantic Ocean to the southeast of Greenland that has been cooling over the last 50 to 100 years.

    This so-called “cold blob” or “warming hole” has been linked to the weakening of what’s known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – a system of ocean currents that conveys warm water from the equator towards the poles.

    During July 2023 we met as a team to analyse this cold blob – how deep it reaches and how robust it is as a measure of the strength of the Atlantic overturning circulation – when it became clear there was a strong reversal of the historical cooling trend. The cold blob had warmed to 2°C above average.

    But was that a sign the overturning circulation had been reinvigorated? Or was something else going on?

    A layered story

    It soon became clear the anomalous warm temperatures southeast of Greenland were part of an unprecedented marine heatwave that had developed across much of the North Atlantic Ocean. By July, basin-averaged warming in the North Atlantic reached 1.4°C above normal, almost double the previous record set in 2010.

    To uncover what was behind these record breaking temperatures, we combined estimates of the atmospheric conditions that prevailed during the heatwave, such as winds and cloud cover, with ocean observations and model simulations.

    We were especially interested in understanding what was happening in the mixed upper layer of water of the ocean, which is strongly affected by the atmosphere.

    Distinct from the deeper layer of cold water, the ocean’s surface mixed layer warms as it’s exposed to more sunlight during spring and summer. But the rate at which this warming happens depends on its thickness. If it’s thick, it will warm more gradually; if it’s thin, rapid warming can ensue.

    During summer the thickness of this surface mixed layer is largely set by winds. Winds churn up the surface ocean and the stronger they are the deeper the mixing penetrates, so strong winds create a think upper layer and weak winds generate a shallower layer.

    Sea surface temperature anomaly (°C) for the month of June 2023, relative to the 1991–2020 reference period.
    Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF

    Thinning at the surface

    Our new research indicates that the primary driver of the marine heatwave was record-breaking weak winds across much of the basin. The winds were at their weakest measured levels during June and July, possibly linked to a developing El Niño in the east Pacific Ocean.

    This led to by far the shallowest upper layer on record. Data from the Argo Program – a global array of nearly 4,000 robotic floats that measure the temperature and salinity in the upper 2,000 metres of the ocean – showed in some areas this layer was only ten metres deep, compared to the usual 20 to 40 metres deep.

    This caused the sun to heat the thin surface layer far more rapidly than usual.

    In addition to these short term changes in 2023, previous research has shown long-term warming associated with anthropogenic climate change is reducing the ability of winds to mix the upper ocean, causing it to gradually thin.

    We also identified a possible secondary driver of more localised warming during the 2023 marine heatwave: above-average solar radiation hitting the ocean. This could be linked in part with the introduction of new international rules in 2020 to reduce sulfate emissions from ships.

    The aim of these rules was to reduce air pollution from ship’s exhaust systems. But sulfate aerosols also reflect solar radiation and can lead to cloud formation. The resultant clearer skies can then lead to more ocean warming.

    Early warning signs

    The extreme 2023 heatwave provides a preview of the future. Marine heatwaves are expected to worsen as Earth continues to warm due to greenhouse gas emissions, with devastating impacts on marine ecosystems such as coral reefs and fisheries. This also means more intense hurricanes – and more intense land-based heatwaves.

    Right now, although the “cold blob” to the southeast of Greenland has returned, parts of the North Atlantic remain significantly warmer than the average. There is a particularly warm patch of water off the coast of the United Kingdom, with temperatures up to 4°C above normal. And this is likely priming Europe for extreme land-based heatwaves this summer.

    Global ocean temperatures on June 2 2025. A patch of abnormally warm water is visible off the southern coast of the United Kingdom.
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    To better understand, forecast and plan for the impacts of marine heatwaves, long-term ocean and atmospheric data and models, including those provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States, are crucial. In fact, without these data and models, our new study would not have been possible.

    Despite this, NOAA faces an uncertain future. A proposed budget for the 2026 fiscal year released by the White House last month could mean devastating funding cuts of more than US$1.5 billion – mostly targeting climate-based research and data collection.

    This would be a disaster for monitoring our oceans and climate system, right at a time when change is severe, unprecedented, and proving very costly.

    Matthew England receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Alex Sen Gupta receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Andrew Kiss receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Zhi Li receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Unprecedented heat in the North Atlantic Ocean kickstarted Europe’s hellish 2023 summer. Now we know what caused it – https://theconversation.com/unprecedented-heat-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean-kickstarted-europes-hellish-2023-summer-now-we-know-what-caused-it-258061

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Getting away with it … sort of. How a dictator and a fugitive Nazi advanced international human rights law

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Olivera Simic, Associate Professor in Law, Griffith University

    Pinochet and Rauff? They were alike. Each had two faces. One gentle, the other hard. They were joined.

    And they both got away with it … Sort of.

    Philippe Sands loves to tell stories. A master of historical non-fiction, he has become known for his unique blend of deeply personal, legal and historical narratives, which weave together incredible coincidences with moving stories of human courage in the face of mass atrocities and horror.

    Sands is a leading practitioner of international law, a professor at University College London, an author, a playwright, and the recipient of numerous literary awards. He is also someone whose family was murdered in the vortex of the Holocaust in Ukraine.

    With his previous two books, East West Street: On the Origins of Genocide and Crimes Against Humanity (2016) and The Ratline: Love, Lies and Justice on the Trail of a Nazi Fugitive (2020), he demonstrated his unique skill in presenting complex legal cases to avid readers.

    His latest book, 38 Londres Street: On Impunity, Pinochet in England and a Nazi in Patagonia, rounds out the trilogy.

    If it weren’t based on facts, one might think it was a brilliantly crafted thriller.

    Review: 38 Londres Street: On Impunity, Pinochet in England and a Nazi in Patagonia – Philippe Sands (Weidenfeld & Nicolson)

    38 Londres Street weaves together several narratives, but at its heart is the story of the legal attempts to end impunity for two accused criminals. One is Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet. The other is Walther Rauff, a former SS officer who fled to South America and allegedly worked with Pinochet’s Secret Intelligence Service.

    Sands brings these two men into a single narrative to highlight the legal struggle against impunity for mass atrocities, though he never loses sight of the victims and their human stories of suffering, courage and persistence.

    These were people whose lives were abruptly and violently taken. Sands includes many of their names and tragic fates in his book. He informs his readers that the Cementerio Sara Braun in Punta Arenas, Chile, has a memorial bearing the names of Pinochet’s many victims. He clearly wants these individuals never to be forgotten.

    Universal jurisdiction and the Pinochet precedent

    The building at 38 Londres Street in Santiago was once a site of pain. At this secret interrogation centre, one of many across Santiago and the rest of Chile, Pinochet’s agents imprisoned, tortured, executed and disappeared tens of thousands of people deemed leftists, socialists, communists or “other undesirables”.

    Pinochet came to power on September 11, 1973, overthrowing the democratically elected socialist government of President Salvador Allende in a military coup. He would rule Chile with an iron fist until 1990.

    Chile’s youth became the targets of his murderous regime. Sands notes that most victims were between 21 and 30 years old. The majority of them were workers; the rest mainly comprised academics, professionals and students. The atrocities were committed with impunity.

    Like all dictators, Pinochet believed himself untouchable. But in October 1998, while visiting the UK, he was arrested in London. Spanish judge Baltasar Garzón was seeking Pinochet’s extradition to Spain in order to try him for human rights abuses.

    Garzón was acting under the then-controversial legal principle of universal jurisdiction, which allows courts in one country to prosecute grave human rights violations committed outside its borders, regardless of the nationality of the accused.

    Never before had a former head of state of one country been arrested by, and in another, for committing international crimes.

    Sands would become involved in one of the most famous cases in international law since the Nuremberg trials more than 50 years earlier. Pinochet’s lawyers offered him an opportunity to participate in the case, arguing for the former dictator’s immunity as a former head of state. His wife threatened to divorce him if he accepted.

    He declined the offer. Instead, Sands represented Human Rights Watch when the Pinochet case was considered by the Law Lords.

    Pinochet had been indicted for crimes against humanity and genocide. At issue was the question of whether Pinochet, as a former head of state, had immunity before the English courts for acts committed in another country while he was in office. Should there be a legal protection for former dictators?

    The proceedings in London were novel and remarkable, writes Sands, because this was an open legal question when Pinochet was arrested. His arrest raised an unprecedented issue: was there an exception to the rule of immunity for a former head of state when a crime in international law was involved? And did the exception apply before a national court, rather than an international one?


    Many believed Pinochet’s immunity should be lifted and extradition proceedings should go ahead, so that he could answer for the deaths of Spanish nationals and others. If that did not happen, it was argued, the travesty of justice would signal that any dictator could get away with genocide. As Sands writes, immunity and impunity often go hand in hand.

    In this landmark case, Pinochet was stripped of the immunity from prosecution he had enjoyed as a former president. He was ordered to stand trial on charges of human rights abuses.

    For the next 16 months, he remained in the UK, awaiting extradition to Spain. But it never happened. The initial judgement on immunity was quashed, due to concerns about possible bias of one of the judges. The case returned to square one. New hearings took place.

    In January 2000, the UK eventually decided not to proceed with extradition, claiming that Pinochet was too ill to stand trial and that “it would not be fair”. He was allowed to return to Chile as a free man, thanks to medical doctors rather than lawyers.

    Political leaders in Europe generally welcomed the ruling. Margaret Thatcher, former British prime minister and Pinochet’s longstanding ally, was adamant that the lengthy legal wrangle had been a waste of public money. Seemingly agitated, she said in front of the cameras:

    Senator Pinochet was a staunch friend of Britain throughout the Falklands War. His reward from this government was to be held prisoner for 16 months. In the meantime, his health has been broken, his reputation tarnished, and vast funds of public money have been squandered on a political vendetta.

    Subsequent attempts to prosecute Pinochet in Chile were unsuccessful. He died in 2006 at the age of 91, without ever being tried for the human rights abuses that occurred while he was in power. Retributive justice, in the end, was not served. But Pinochet’s case opened the gates for efforts to bring other former and serving heads of state to justice.

    Today, the 38 Londres Street serves as a place of national memory where visitors can walk through its halls and learn about its dark past.

    The Nazi who invented the gas chambers

    Running parallel with Pinochet’s story is that of Nazi fugitive Walther Rauff.

    Rauff invented the mobile gas chambers that were precursors to the gas chambers in Nazi concentration camps. At the end of the second world war, he escaped to South America, settling in Chile. Germany made numerous attempts to have Rauff extradited to face charges, but the Chilean government refused these demands. He spent his days in the backwaters of Patagonia, running a king-crab cannery business.

    Sands travels to Patagonia and meets people who remember Rauff, whose identity seems to have been common knowledge among his neighbours and co-workers: “everyone knew rumours and stories of his past”; they knew about “the gas vans” and that he “once killed many people”. But no one seemed to be bothered. They describe Rauff as “cultivated and kind”. To many of Sands’ interlocutors, the stories about Rauff “were long ago and far away”.

    While dealing with the failed attempts for his extradition, Rauff put his energies into “harvesting crabs, making sure the tins were packed tight, [and] managing the workers”. He continued to do so, enjoying the company of his dog Bobby, when Pinochet became Chile’s new leader.

    Pinochet was an old friend. Sands records that the two men met in the 1950s in Quito, Ecuador, where Rauff was staying, having fled an Italian prison camp at the end of the war. The men shared a contempt for communism and an affinity for German culture. Pinochet encouraged Rauff to move to Chile.

    Rauff delighted in Pinochet’s murderous regime. Sands tell us that Pinochet used Rauff’s “expertise” to help with the murder and disappearance of thousands of people. But the controversy over whether Rauff worked for the Chilean military, becoming “chief advisor” to its intelligence services, or perhaps even its “head”, remains unresolved. Definitive and provable evidence about the assistance Rauff may have given to Pinochet was never obtained.

    Holding dictators to account

    One of the many coincidences Sands stumbles upon is that Rauff lived in Punta Arenas in southern Chile on a street called “Jugoslavija”, named after the country where I was born, which disintegrated in the 1990s in a brutal civil war marked by mass atrocities and genocide.

    Former Yugoslavian and Serbian president Slobodan Milošević would become the first-ever serving head of state to be charged with international crimes and extradited to an international court.

    Milošević was extradited to The Hague in 2001 after he was indicted for war crimes committed in Kosovo and Croatia, and for genocide in Bosnia and Herzegovina following an order from the Serbian government. His trial is widely hailed as a landmark moment in the development of international criminal law, though he died in his cell before his trial ended, dying “innocent” like his counterparts Pinochet and Rauff.

    Slobodan Milošević in The Hague, July 2001.
    Robert Goddyn, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

    In 38 Londres Street, Sands brings to light the behind-the-scenes struggles to hold Pinochet and Rauff accountable. The book explores the intricacies and politics of international law. Despite its bitter ending, Pinochet’s case remains one of the most far reaching and important in the field of human rights. It caused other countries to reflect on their own legal immunities.

    As a researcher and academic, I found the book significant because it also offers insight into what it takes to conduct such expansive archival and qualitative research. Over several years, “in between work and life”, Sands travels to different corners of the globe and speaks to informants from all walks of life, including descendants of the perpetrators. He visits the sites of the events he recounts, most of them places marked by pain. He seeks to see and feel a past that still lingers.

    His method requires stamina, passion and unwavering diligence. His strong commitment to neutrality, decency and impartiality makes him stand out not only as a highly skilled writer, but a survivor who continues to unpack and share the legacy of the Holocaust. There is much to respect and learn from in Sands’ account, not least about the intricacies of writing a compelling story.

    Holding dictators to account is hard. Pinochet and Rauff deprived victims of the retributive justice they needed and deserved. Yet justice and reparations have many different meanings. They can be symbolic too, and still profoundly meaningful to victims. As one of the survivors of Pinochet’s regime replied to Sands when asked whether he believed his case was one of total impunity: “Not quite total […] Dawson [an island detention camp] has been recognised as a site of national memory, a protected monument, and that means something.”

    Pinochet and Rauff were never convicted, but they were not free. Pinochet spent years under house arrest, bitter and devastated, unable to walk the streets. Rauff lived in constant fear of being arrested and extradited. They were both haunted. This, after all, may have brought some satisfaction to the victims.

    Sands was once asked: “Do you believe in justice?” He replied: “Sort of.” Sands comes to understand that justice is “uneven in its delivery”. He has learned “to tamper expectations”. Maybe we all need to learn that skill from him too. Ultimately, justice remains a work-in-progress, just like the process of learning from a dark past.

    Olivera Simic does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Getting away with it … sort of. How a dictator and a fugitive Nazi advanced international human rights law – https://theconversation.com/getting-away-with-it-sort-of-how-a-dictator-and-a-fugitive-nazi-advanced-international-human-rights-law-257241

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Taylor Swift now owns all the music she has ever made: a copyright expert breaks it down

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Wellett Potter, Lecturer in Law, University of New England

    On Friday, Taylor Swift announced she now owns all the music she has ever made. This reported US$360 million acquisition includes all the master recordings to her first six albums, music videos, concert films, album art, photos and unreleased material.

    The purchase of this catalogue from private equity firm Shamrock Capital is a profoundly happy event for Swift. She has expressed how personal and difficult it was not to own these works.

    In her announcement, Swift acknowledged that it was due to her fans purchasing her rerecorded music (known as “Taylor’s Version”) and the financial success of the record-breaking Eras Tour which enabled this purchase.

    The story behind “Taylor’s Version” and why she didn’t own the catalogue to her original six albums is due to copyright, music industry practices and contractual terms. Let’s break it down.

    What’s in a music catalogue?

    When it comes to valuing a music catalogue, it largely comes down to two types of rights: master rights and publishing rights.

    Master rights are rights pertaining to the ownership of the actual sound recordings – the final recorded version. These are called “masters” because they’re the original source from which all copies are made.

    Under traditional music industry contracts, record labels usually hold ownership of masters and associated materials. This can be music videos, tour videos, unreleased works, photographs and album covers.

    Through licensing, the label controls the use of this material and retains the majority of the royalties. In return, the label provides the artist with financial backing, recording resources and marketing.

    Publishing rights, on the other hand, relate to the underlying composition – the music and lyrics. The rights to music publishing usually belong to the songwriter, regardless of who performs the song.

    Publishing rights govern how a song can be used and who earns royalties from that use. For example, a song may be played on a streaming platform, covered in a live performance or licensed for a commercial or film.

    Swift’s contracts

    Swift was 15-years-old when she was signed to Scott Borchetta’s Big Machine record label.

    The agreed contractual terms were typical of the music industry. In exchange for the financial support to make, record and promote her subsequent albums and tours, Big Machine held the rights to Swift’s master recordings and associated materials in her first six albums. Her relationship with the label lasted 13 years.

    As a songwriter, Swift retained separate publishing rights to her songs (the music and lyrics) from her first six albums, which she licensed through Sony/ATV Music Publishing.

    In 2018, Swift was reportedly offered to re-sign with Big Machine, in a deal which would involve her “earning” the rights to one original album for each new one she produced.

    Swift did not renew her contract and moved to Republic Records (Universal Music Group), who allow her to own her masters. She also moved to Universal Music Publishing Group for her music publishing.

    Subsequent sales

    In June 2019, Big Machine’s catalogue was sold to Scooter Braun’s Ithaca Holdings, for a reported US$330 million, with US$140 million representing Swift’s catalogue.

    Swift described this as her “worst case scenario”, as she had a tumultuous history of alleged bullying from Braun. She also alleged she found out about the acquisition at the time it was announced to the world, without being given the opportunity to purchase her catalogue.

    Throughout 2019 and 2020 it was reported she attempted to regain ownership, but negotiations fell through.

    In October 2020, Swift’s catalogue was sold to Shamrock Capital, a private equity firm, for an estimated US$300+ million. In recent years, private equity firms have been purchasing music catalogues as profitable long-term financial assets, rather than for artistic or cultural reasons.

    These events led Swift to rerecord her first six albums, branding them “Taylor’s Version”. Four have been released.

    Swift rerecorded her albums, branding them ‘Taylor’s Version’.
    melissamn/Shutterstock

    She was able to create new versions of her songs, with their own intellectual property rights attached.

    As owner of these new masters, she has control over where these songs are used, and she receives a greater portion of the income from the streams, downloads and licensing.

    The decision was enormously successful. Mobilising her fans’ support via social media, they prioritised purchasing “Taylor’s Version” over the original masters, diluting the value of the originals.

    Successful futures

    Swift has repeatedly emphasised the need for artists to retain control over their work and to receive fair compensation. In a 2020 interview she said she believes artists should always own their master records and licence them back to the label for a limited period.

    This would mean the label could monetise, control and manage the recordings for a certain time, but the artist retains the ownership. They eventually gain back full control, rather than handing over permanent rights to the label.

    Swift’s experience has sparked conversations within the industry, prompting emerging artists to approach record labels with caution and advocate for fairer deals and ownership rights. Olivia Rodrigo negotiated her contract with Swift’s saga as a cautionary tale.

    Purchasing her catalogue and masters gives Swift autonomy about how the rights to all of her music is used. Her fans are likely to continue to support her and purchase both the originals and “Taylor’s Version”, so the value of her original albums may rise.

    And, in the long-run, her new acquisition will likely make her much wealthier.

    Wellett Potter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Taylor Swift now owns all the music she has ever made: a copyright expert breaks it down – https://theconversation.com/taylor-swift-now-owns-all-the-music-she-has-ever-made-a-copyright-expert-breaks-it-down-257965

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Taylor Swift now owns all the music she has ever made: a copyright expert breaks it down

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wellett Potter, Lecturer in Law, University of New England

    On Friday, Taylor Swift announced she now owns all the music she has ever made. This reported US$360 million acquisition includes all the master recordings to her first six albums, music videos, concert films, album art, photos and unreleased material.

    The purchase of this catalogue from private equity firm Shamrock Capital is a profoundly happy event for Swift. She has expressed how personal and difficult it was not to own these works.

    In her announcement, Swift acknowledged that it was due to her fans purchasing her rerecorded music (known as “Taylor’s Version”) and the financial success of the record-breaking Eras Tour which enabled this purchase.

    The story behind “Taylor’s Version” and why she didn’t own the catalogue to her original six albums is due to copyright, music industry practices and contractual terms. Let’s break it down.

    What’s in a music catalogue?

    When it comes to valuing a music catalogue, it largely comes down to two types of rights: master rights and publishing rights.

    Master rights are rights pertaining to the ownership of the actual sound recordings – the final recorded version. These are called “masters” because they’re the original source from which all copies are made.

    Under traditional music industry contracts, record labels usually hold ownership of masters and associated materials. This can be music videos, tour videos, unreleased works, photographs and album covers.

    Through licensing, the label controls the use of this material and retains the majority of the royalties. In return, the label provides the artist with financial backing, recording resources and marketing.

    Publishing rights, on the other hand, relate to the underlying composition – the music and lyrics. The rights to music publishing usually belong to the songwriter, regardless of who performs the song.

    Publishing rights govern how a song can be used and who earns royalties from that use. For example, a song may be played on a streaming platform, covered in a live performance or licensed for a commercial or film.

    Swift’s contracts

    Swift was 15-years-old when she was signed to Scott Borchetta’s Big Machine record label.

    The agreed contractual terms were typical of the music industry. In exchange for the financial support to make, record and promote her subsequent albums and tours, Big Machine held the rights to Swift’s master recordings and associated materials in her first six albums. Her relationship with the label lasted 13 years.

    As a songwriter, Swift retained separate publishing rights to her songs (the music and lyrics) from her first six albums, which she licensed through Sony/ATV Music Publishing.

    In 2018, Swift was reportedly offered to re-sign with Big Machine, in a deal which would involve her “earning” the rights to one original album for each new one she produced.

    Swift did not renew her contract and moved to Republic Records (Universal Music Group), who allow her to own her masters. She also moved to Universal Music Publishing Group for her music publishing.

    Subsequent sales

    In June 2019, Big Machine’s catalogue was sold to Scooter Braun’s Ithaca Holdings, for a reported US$330 million, with US$140 million representing Swift’s catalogue.

    Swift described this as her “worst case scenario”, as she had a tumultuous history of alleged bullying from Braun. She also alleged she found out about the acquisition at the time it was announced to the world, without being given the opportunity to purchase her catalogue.

    Throughout 2019 and 2020 it was reported she attempted to regain ownership, but negotiations fell through.

    In October 2020, Swift’s catalogue was sold to Shamrock Capital, a private equity firm, for an estimated US$300+ million. In recent years, private equity firms have been purchasing music catalogues as profitable long-term financial assets, rather than for artistic or cultural reasons.

    These events led Swift to rerecord her first six albums, branding them “Taylor’s Version”. Four have been released.

    Swift rerecorded her albums, branding them ‘Taylor’s Version’.
    melissamn/Shutterstock

    She was able to create new versions of her songs, with their own intellectual property rights attached.

    As owner of these new masters, she has control over where these songs are used, and she receives a greater portion of the income from the streams, downloads and licensing.

    The decision was enormously successful. Mobilising her fans’ support via social media, they prioritised purchasing “Taylor’s Version” over the original masters, diluting the value of the originals.

    Successful futures

    Swift has repeatedly emphasised the need for artists to retain control over their work and to receive fair compensation. In a 2020 interview she said she believes artists should always own their master records and licence them back to the label for a limited period.

    This would mean the label could monetise, control and manage the recordings for a certain time, but the artist retains the ownership. They eventually gain back full control, rather than handing over permanent rights to the label.

    Swift’s experience has sparked conversations within the industry, prompting emerging artists to approach record labels with caution and advocate for fairer deals and ownership rights. Olivia Rodrigo negotiated her contract with Swift’s saga as a cautionary tale.

    Purchasing her catalogue and masters gives Swift autonomy about how the rights to all of her music is used. Her fans are likely to continue to support her and purchase both the originals and “Taylor’s Version”, so the value of her original albums may rise.

    And, in the long-run, her new acquisition will likely make her much wealthier.

    Wellett Potter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Taylor Swift now owns all the music she has ever made: a copyright expert breaks it down – https://theconversation.com/taylor-swift-now-owns-all-the-music-she-has-ever-made-a-copyright-expert-breaks-it-down-257965

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia’s charity sector is growing – but many smaller charities are doing it tough

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Margaret Faulkner, Senior Marketing Scientist, Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, University of South Australia

    Revenue for Australia’s charity and not-for-profit sector has reached record highs, and total donations have grown. But the story isn’t the same everywhere, and some smaller charities may be struggling.

    That’s according to the latest edition of the Australian Charities Report from the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission (ACNC), released this week.

    The report shows that in the 2023 reporting year, revenue for Australia’s charity sector rose by 10.7% to a record A$222 billion. This was bigger than the growth in expenses, which rose by 8.4% to $212 billion.

    Total donations and bequests also rose, to $18.9 billion. But the picture is nuanced. One single donation made to the Minderoo Foundation of $4.9 billion is included in this figure.

    If this is left out, total donations rose by less than 0.4% across the sector. This suggests we should perhaps put any celebrations on hold and instead ask why donations might be flat-lining.

    In 2023, the top 30 charities accounted for 40% of all donations and bequests to the sector. This was double the 20% share reported for the previous year.

    Australia’s charity sector plays a vital role in society. For it to thrive, all of its elements must be healthy, including smaller charities.

    Some big wins

    The large donation was made to the Minderoo Foundation (in Fortescue shares) by Andrew and Nicola Forrest, as part of their commitment to the Giving Pledge. This further concentrated the share of donations received by the largest charities.

    The Minderoo Foundation funds a wide range of philanthropic programs and research. For example, it works with Citizens of the Sea to collect marine life DNA as part of the 2025 Pacific Rally to monitor marine biodiversity.

    In 2023, the Minderoo Foundation funded the creation of Uncloud as a peer-to-peer hub to show the true impact of vaping, a program that has been handed over to VicHealth.

    Elsewhere, Clean Up Australia once again had the most volunteers of any organisation. In 2023, it increased its numbers by 120,000 volunteers to more than 1 million. This represented 44% of the entire growth in volunteer numbers across the sector.

    These are both great examples of how large national charities can grow year-on-year. But what about the smaller ones?

    Clean Up Australia now has more than a million volunteers.
    MPIX/Shutterstock

    Why smaller charities struggle

    About 60% of Australia’s charities operate with revenue less than $500,000. And about half of these are classified as “extra small” – with revenue less than $50,000. These are the charities that will be doing it tough.

    The report shows extra small charities had the highest increase in total expenses, up 21%. It also shows that they continue to bring in less revenue than they spend. Extra small charities had a net loss of $144 million in 2023 compared with a loss of $85 million the year before, a 69% increase.

    At the University of South Australia’s Ehrenberg-Bass Institute, we are aware that small brands suffer twice.

    The first problem is they have fewer customers (or in this case, donors). The second is that, on average, those who support them will display slightly less loyalty than supporters of the bigger brands. In marketing, this is known as “double jeopardy” for brands.

    It is a statistical effect we can’t change, but one that is worth knowing when evaluating results and setting strategies for the sector.

    Larger charities have some key advantages that make garnering support easier.

    One is simply that they are more well-known. Those who only give infrequently are more likely to come across (and give to) larger charities.

    Smaller charities, on the other hand, are more likely to be sharing their supporters with multiple charities, both small and large.

    As a consequence, loyalty of smaller brands looks slightly lower than that shown to bigger brands.

    How can we fix this?

    One way of raising the profile of smaller charities is to encourage mergers and support other ways to grow. The report shows a number of charities categorised as extra small in 2022 moved into the small charity category in 2023.

    Helping individual charities get bigger can have positive knock-on effects for employment in the sector and job security.

    The report notes 45% of the staff of small charities were casual, compared with 23% of extra large charity staff. Extra large charities also reported adding the most employees, an increase of 60,480.

    Working together

    Another solution is the federated charities model, where charities with similar goals work together to provide a coherent brand identity that reduces wastage in marketing expenses. If they share resources, they can ensure everyone is consistent in how the brand is portrayed and they can optimise marketing expenditure.

    Under this model, individual charities can tailor their messaging or choice of media outlet to suit their local context, while building a valuable brand all can use, making it as easy as possible for people to volunteer and donate money.

    There are still some services in society that rely on very small charities that can’t easily grow or federate with others. While support is available to access other revenue streams, such as grant funding, this assumes the charity has people who can write grants, manage its expenditure and report back to the funding body.

    That puts this potential revenue source out of reach for many. The operations of many of these smaller charities do not look sustainable in the current environment, and we need to come up with new solutions to show our support.

    Margaret Faulkner’s PhD received funding from The Queen Elizabeth Hospital Research Foundation (now known as The Hospital Research Foundation). As a member of the Ehrenberg-Bass Institute she benefits from corporate sponsorship, but this does not influence the institute’s research or opinions. Until recently she was a director of a small non-profit organisation and has received funding for research projects from large non-profits within Australia and overseas.

    – ref. Australia’s charity sector is growing – but many smaller charities are doing it tough – https://theconversation.com/australias-charity-sector-is-growing-but-many-smaller-charities-are-doing-it-tough-258073

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australian kids BYO lunches to school. There is a healthier way to feed students

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liesel Spencer, Associate Professor, School of Law, Western Sydney University

    Getty Images/ courtneyk

    Australian parents will be familiar with this school morning routine: hastily making sandwiches or squeezing leftovers into containers, grabbing a snack from the cupboard and a piece of fruit from the counter.

    This would be unheard of in many other countries, including Finland, Sweden, Scotland, Wales, Brazil and India, which provide free daily school meals to every child.

    Australia is one of the few high-income countries that does not provide children with a daily nutritious meal at school.

    As families increasingly face food insecurity and a cost-of-living crisis, here’s how school lunches could help.

    School lunches are important

    During the week, children get a third of their daily food intake at school. What they eat during school hours has a significant impact on their health.

    Australian children have much higher rates of obesity than children in countries with healthy lunch programs.

    As children’s diets affect physical and cognitive development, and mental health, poor diet can also affect academic performance.

    International research shows universal school meal programs – where all children are provided with a healthy meal at school each day – can improve both health and educational outcomes for students.

    The problem with BYO lunchboxes

    In Australia, children either bring a packed lunch or buy food at the school canteen. But the vast majority of these lunches don’t meet kids’ dietary needs.

    As a 2022 Flinders University report notes, more than 80% of Australian primary school lunches are of poor nutritional quality. Half of students’ school-day food intake comes from junk food and fewer than one in ten students eat enough vegetables.

    While these figures are based on 2011–2012 data, subsequent national survey data does not show significant improvements in children’s healthy diet indicators, including fruit and vegetable consumption. Time pressures on carers mean pre-packaged food can be a default lunchbox choice.

    At the same time, many families with school students are not able to provide their children with healthy lunches. Food insecurity — not having regular access to enough safe, healthy and affordable food — affects an estimated 58% of Australian households with children, and 69% of single-parent households.

    Hot weather also raises food safety concerns, as it’s hard to keep fresh food cool in schoolbags.

    School meals programs in Australia

    There are some historical examples of providing food to children at school in Australia. This includes the school milk program which ran from 1950s to 1970s. There were also wartime experiments in the 1940s. For example, the Oslo lunch (a cheese and salad sandwich on wholemeal bread, with milk and fruit) was provided at school to improve the health of children.

    Today, there is a patchwork of school food programs run by not-for-profit organisations providing breakfast and/or lunch, and various schemes, including kitchen garden and school greenhouse programs.

    There are also pilot schemes providing hot meals. For example, in Tasmania, the current pilot school lunch program feeds children in participating schools a hot lunch on some days of the week with state government support. Evaluation of the program showed strong benefits: healthier eating, calmer classrooms, better social connections from eating lunch together, and less food waste.

    The 2023 parliamentary inquiry into food security recommended the federal government work with states and territories to consider the feasibility of a school meals program.

    In May, the South Australian parliament opened an inquiry into programs in preschools and schools to ensure children and young people don’t go hungry during the day.

    What would it take to introduce school meals?

    Rolling out universal school meal programs across Australian schools would require cooperation between government and private sectors.

    It could build on what already exists – including canteens, school gardens, food relief and breakfast clubs – to create a more consistent and inclusive system.

    There’s a strong evidence base to guide this, both from Australian pilot programs and international examples.

    Decisions would have to be made about regulation and funding – whether to opt for a federally-funded and regulated scheme with federal and state cooperation, or a state-by-state scheme.

    Funding mechanisms from international models include fully government-funded, caregiver-paid (but with subsidies for disadvantaged families) and cost-sharing arrangements between government and families.

    Costs per child per day are around A$10, factoring in economies of scale. Some pilot programs report lower costs of around $5, but involve volunteer labour.

    More research is needed to determine parent and community attitudes and model these funding options, including preventative health benefits.

    Delivery models may also vary depending on each school’s size, location and infrastructure. This could include onsite food preparation, central kitchens delivering pre-prepared meals, or partnerships with not-for-profit providers.

    Ultimately, providing food at school could save parents valuable time and stress, and ensure all Australian students can access the health and education benefits of a nutritious school meal.

    Liesel Spencer has undertaken volunteer work for the Federation of Canteens in Schools (Australia).

    Miriam Williams has undertaken volunteer work for the Federation of Canteens in Schools (Australia).

    Katherine Kent does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Australian kids BYO lunches to school. There is a healthier way to feed students – https://theconversation.com/australian-kids-byo-lunches-to-school-there-is-a-healthier-way-to-feed-students-257465

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Bowel cancer rates are declining in people over 50. But why are they going up in younger adults?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Suzanne Mahady, Associate Professor, Gastroenterologist & Clinical Epidemiologist, Monash University

    Thirdman/Pexels

    Bowel cancer is the fourth most common cancer in Australia, with more than 15,000 cases diagnosed annually. It’s also the second most common cause of cancer-related death.

    Recently, headlines have warned of an uptick in cases among younger adults, noting bowel cancer cases in people under 50 in Australia are among the highest in the world.

    While this is very worrying, it’s also important to note the rate of new cases of bowel cancer in Australia overall has actually been falling over the past 20 years or so. Most cases of bowel cancer still occur in adults over 50, and thanks to a national screening program in this age group, rates are declining.

    So why are rates increasing in younger people, and what can we do to mitigate the risk?

    National screening is working

    Australia was one of the first countries to commence population-based screening for bowel cancer. The National Bowel Cancer Screening Program was introduced in 2006. A kit is sent in the mail every two years to adults aged 50–74.

    This simple poo test detects microscopic amounts of blood that may indicate the presence of cancer or a precancerous lesion, leading to earlier detection and higher rates of survival.

    Despite the effectiveness of the program, participation rates are less than optimal at around 40%. We could see even further declines in rates of bowel cancer if more people took part.

    How about younger adults?

    In contrast to the falling incidence of bowel cancer in older people, emerging data over the past few years paints a different picture for people under 50.

    Research I did with colleagues showed an increase in both bowel and rectal cancer from 1982 to 2014 in Australia in people under 50.

    A recent preprint (a study yet to be peer-reviewed) includes data up to 2020, and further supports this trend. It suggests people born in the 1990s have two to three times the risk of bowel cancer compared to those born in the 1950s.

    Similar trends have been noted in many countries, however international data suggests the rates of young-onset bowel cancer in Australia are among the highest in the world.

    What’s driving this increase?

    At the moment the causes are unclear. Some studies have focused on diet and lifestyle, obesity, and consumption of red meat.

    However, diet as a cause of any disease is notoriously difficult to study. This is because it requires long-term data on what people eat, and following them up for the development of the disease (called an observational study).

    If there are positive findings in the observational study, researchers may then test their hypothesis in a randomised controlled trial where one group eats a certain food (such as red meat) and the other does not, and then compare rates of bowel cancer in each group over time.

    Due to the near impossibility of conducting these types of trials – as participants would need to follow strict dietary guidelines for years – dietary causes are challenging to prove.

    More recent research has focussed on the potential role of E. coli infection in childhood, proposing that infection with some strains may lead to early DNA changes and subsequent increased cancer risk. Other research is looking at the role of an altered gut microbiome. These hypotheses warrant further work.

    Ultimately, we don’t know why bowel cancer rates have been increasing in younger adults.
    Andrey_Popov/Shutterstock

    What can people do to reduce their risk?

    It’s important to watch for any new or concerning symptoms. Any blood in your poo, particularly if it’s a new symptom, or a change in your regular bowel habits, are good reasons to promptly book a doctor’s appointment.

    And while the bowel cancer screening kits are sent to adults from age 50 every two years, as of 2024 people aged 45–49 can request a kit to be sent to them.

    Because the participation rate in the bowel cancer screening program is less than optimal, people over 50 who receive the kit in the mail are strongly encouraged to do the test as soon as possible. Increasing screening participation rates remains one of the most important ways we can reduce the burden of bowel cancer in Australia.

    Suzanne Mahady does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Bowel cancer rates are declining in people over 50. But why are they going up in younger adults? – https://theconversation.com/bowel-cancer-rates-are-declining-in-people-over-50-but-why-are-they-going-up-in-younger-adults-257728

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Unprecedented heat in the North Atlantic Ocean kickstarted Europe’s hellish 2023 summer. Now we know what caused it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew England, Scientia Professor and Deputy Director of the ARC Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, UNSW Sydney

    Westend61/Getty Images

    In June 2023, a record-breaking marine heatwave swept across the North Atlantic Ocean, smashing previous temperature records.

    Soon after, deadly heatwaves broke out across large areas of Europe, and torrential rains and flash flooding devastated parts of Spain and Eastern Europe. That year Switzerland lost more than 4% of its total glacier volume, and severe bushfires broke out around the Mediterranean.

    It wasn’t just Europe that was impacted. The coral reefs of the Caribbean were bleaching under severe heat stress. And hurricanes, fuelled by ocean heat, intensified into disasters. For example, Hurricane Idalia hit Florida in August 2023 – causing 12 deaths and an estimated US$3.6 billion in damages.

    Today, in a paper published in Nature, we uncover what drove this unprecedented marine heatwave.

    A strange discovery

    In a strange twist to the global warming story, there is a region of the North Atlantic Ocean to the southeast of Greenland that has been cooling over the last 50 to 100 years.

    This so-called “cold blob” or “warming hole” has been linked to the weakening of what’s known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – a system of ocean currents that conveys warm water from the equator towards the poles.

    During July 2023 we met as a team to analyse this cold blob – how deep it reaches and how robust it is as a measure of the strength of the Atlantic overturning circulation – when it became clear there was a strong reversal of the historical cooling trend. The cold blob had warmed to 2°C above average.

    But was that a sign the overturning circulation had been reinvigorated? Or was something else going on?

    A layered story

    It soon became clear the anomalous warm temperatures southeast of Greenland were part of an unprecedented marine heatwave that had developed across much of the North Atlantic Ocean. By July, basin-averaged warming in the North Atlantic reached 1.4°C above normal, almost double the previous record set in 2010.

    To uncover what was behind these record breaking temperatures, we combined estimates of the atmospheric conditions that prevailed during the heatwave, such as winds and cloud cover, with ocean observations and model simulations.

    We were especially interested in understanding what was happening in the mixed upper layer of water of the ocean, which is strongly affected by the atmosphere.

    Distinct from the deeper layer of cold water, the ocean’s surface mixed layer warms as it’s exposed to more sunlight during spring and summer. But the rate at which this warming happens depends on its thickness. If it’s thick, it will warm more gradually; if it’s thin, rapid warming can ensue.

    During summer the thickness of this surface mixed layer is largely set by winds. Winds churn up the surface ocean and the stronger they are the deeper the mixing penetrates, so strong winds create a think upper layer and weak winds generate a shallower layer.

    Sea surface temperature anomaly (°C) for the month of June 2023, relative to the 1991–2020 reference period.
    Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF

    Thinning at the surface

    Our new research indicates that the primary driver of the marine heatwave was record-breaking weak winds across much of the basin. The winds were at their weakest measured levels during June and July, possibly linked to a developing El Niño in the east Pacific Ocean.

    This led to by far the shallowest upper layer on record. Data from the Argo Program – a global array of nearly 4,000 robotic floats that measure the temperature and salinity in the upper 2,000 metres of the ocean – showed in some areas this layer was only ten metres deep, compared to the usual 20 to 40 metres deep.

    This caused the sun to heat the thin surface layer far more rapidly than usual.

    In addition to these short term changes in 2023, previous research has shown long-term warming associated with anthropogenic climate change is reducing the ability of winds to mix the upper ocean, causing it to gradually thin.

    We also identified a possible secondary driver of more localised warming during the 2023 marine heatwave: above-average solar radiation hitting the ocean. This could be linked in part with the introduction of new international rules in 2020 to reduce sulfate emissions from ships.

    The aim of these rules was to reduce air pollution from ship’s exhaust systems. But sulfate aerosols also reflect solar radiation and can lead to cloud formation. The resultant clearer skies can then lead to more ocean warming.

    Early warning signs

    The extreme 2023 heatwave provides a preview of the future. Marine heatwaves are expected to worsen as Earth continues to warm due to greenhouse gas emissions, with devastating impacts on marine ecosystems such as coral reefs and fisheries. This also means more intense hurricanes – and more intense land-based heatwaves.

    Right now, although the “cold blob” to the southeast of Greenland has returned, parts of the North Atlantic remain significantly warmer than the average. There is a particularly warm patch of water off the coast of the United Kingdom, with temperatures up to 4°C above normal. And this is likely priming Europe for extreme land-based heatwaves this summer.

    Global ocean temperatures on June 2 2025. A patch of abnormally warm water is visible off the southern coast of the United Kingdom.
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    To better understand, forecast and plan for the impacts of marine heatwaves, long-term ocean and atmospheric data and models, including those provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States, are crucial. In fact, without these data and models, our new study would not have been possible.

    Despite this, NOAA faces an uncertain future. A proposed budget for the 2026 fiscal year released by the White House last month could mean devastating funding cuts of more than US$1.5 billion – mostly targeting climate-based research and data collection.

    This would be a disaster for monitoring our oceans and climate system, right at a time when change is severe, unprecedented, and proving very costly.

    Matthew England receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Alex Sen Gupta receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Andrew Kiss receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Zhi Li receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Unprecedented heat in the North Atlantic Ocean kickstarted Europe’s hellish 2023 summer. Now we know what caused it – https://theconversation.com/unprecedented-heat-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean-kickstarted-europes-hellish-2023-summer-now-we-know-what-caused-it-258061

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Woodside’s North West Shelf approval is by no means a one-off. Here are 6 other giant gas projects to watch

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Hepburn, Professor, Deakin Law School, Deakin University

    GREG WOOD/AFP via Getty Images

    The federal government’s decision to extend the life of Woodside’s North West Shelf gas plant in Western Australia has been condemned as a climate disaster.

    The gas lobby claims more gas is needed to secure energy supplies, pointing to predicted gas shortages in parts of Australia in the short term. But given most proposed gas projects are directed at the export market, the problem is likely to persist.

    And the science is clear: no fossil fuel projects can be opened if the world is to avoid catastrophic climate change.

    Despite this, a slew of polluting gas projects are either poised to begin operating in Australia, or lie firmly in the sights of industry.

    How Australia’s gas contributes to climate change

    Gas production in Australia harms the climate in two ways.

    The first is via “fugitive” emissions – leaks and unintentional releases that occur when gas is being extracted, processed and transported. These emissions are typically methane, which traps more heat in the atmosphere per molecule than carbon dioxide.

    Fugitive emissions count towards Australia’s greenhouse gas accounts, comprising about 6% of our total emissions.

    So, government approval for new gas projects undermines Australia’s commitment to reaching net-zero emissions. Labor enshrined this goal in legislation in its previous term of government, and all states and territories have also adopted it.

    The second climate harm occurs when Australia’s gas is burned for energy overseas. Those emissions do not count towards our national emissions accounts, but they substantially contribute to global warming.

    Under national environment law, the federal government is not required to consider the potential harm a project might cause to the global climate. This loophole means fossil fuel developments can continue to win government backing.

    Below, I outline six of the biggest gas projects Australia has in the pipeline.

    1. Barossa Gas Project

    This A$5.6 billion project by energy giant Santos is located in the Timor Sea, about 300km north of Darwin. The Australian government’s offshore energy regulator approved it in April this year.

    The project will extract gas from the Barossa field and transport it to a liquified natural gas (LNG) facility in Darwin for processing and export.

    The venture would reportedly be among the worst polluting oil and gas projects in the world. On one estimate, it would release about 380 million tonnes of climate pollution over its 25-year life.

    2. Scarborough Pluto Train 2

    Pluto Train 2 is an extension of Woodside’s existing Scarborough project, centred around a gas field about 375km off WA’s Pilbara coast. A 430-kilometre pipeline would connect that gas to a second LNG train at a facility near Karratha. “Train” refers to the unit in a plant that turns natural gas into liquid.

    The project has federal and state approval. It is about 80% complete and scheduled to begin operating by next year. According to Climate Analytics, the expansion would create about 9.2 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent each year.

    3. Surat Phase 2

    This coal seam gas project in Gladstone, Queensland, would be operated by Arrow energy – a joint venture between Shell and PetroChina.

    It involves substantially expanding existing gas fields by building up to 450 new production wells. The project is expected to supply 130 million cubic feet of gas each day at its peak, and has been opposed by environment groups.

    4. Narrabri Gas Project

    This $3.6 billion Santos project in northwest New South Wales involves drilling up to 850 coal seam gas wells over 95,000 hectares. The National Native Title Tribunal last month ruled leases for the project could be granted, leaving Santos only a few regulatory barriers to clear.

    Environmental groups and Traditional Owners say the project threatens water resources, biodiversity and Indigenous sites. However, the tribunal found the project’s benefits to energy reliability outweighed those concerns.

    5. Beetaloo Basin

    The Beetaloo Basin is located 500km southeast of Darwin. It covers 28,000 kilometres and is estimated to contain up to 500 trillion cubic feet of gas. A number of companies are vying for the right to develop the huge resource.

    It is predicted to emit up to 1.2 billion tonnes over 25 years. A CSIRO report says Beetaloo could be tapped without adding to Australia’s net emissions. However, experts say the report was too optimistic and relies far too heavily on carbon offsets.

    6. Browse Basin

    Browse Basin, 425 kilometres north of Broome off WA, is considered Australia’s biggest reserve of untapped conventional gas.

    Woodside plans to develop the Browse gas fields, but the area is remote and difficult to access. According to the ABC, Woodside’s North West Shelf project is considered the last hope for extracting the valuable resource.

    Environmental groups say the project, if approved, would emit 1.6 billion tonnes of climate pollution – three times Australia’s current annual emissions.

    The basin is also located near the pristine Scott Reef, a significant coral reef ecosystem.

    A major disconnect

    The projects listed above, if they proceed, weaken Australia’s efforts to reach its emission reduction goals. And their overall climate impact is truly frightening.

    The re-elected Labor government has pledged to revisit attempts to reform national environment laws. This presents a prime opportunity to ensure the climate harms of fossil fuel projects are key to environmental decision making.

    Samantha Hepburn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Woodside’s North West Shelf approval is by no means a one-off. Here are 6 other giant gas projects to watch – https://theconversation.com/woodsides-north-west-shelf-approval-is-by-no-means-a-one-off-here-are-6-other-giant-gas-projects-to-watch-257899

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How did humans evolve such rotten genetics?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Laurence D. Hurst, Professor of Evolutionary Genetics at The Milner Centre for Evolution, University of Bath

    MaksEvs/Shutterstock

    To Shakespeare’s Hamlet we humans are “the paragon of animals”. But recent advances in genetics are suggesting that humans are far from being evolution’s greatest achievement.

    For example, humans have an exceptionally high proportion of fertilised eggs that have the wrong number of chromosomes and one of the highest rates of harmful genetic mutation.

    In my new book The Evolution of Imperfection I suggest that two features of our biology explain why our genetics are in such a poor state. First, we evolved a lot of our human features when our populations were small and second, we feed our young across a placenta.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Our reproduction is notoriously risky for both mother and embryo. For every child born another two fertilised eggs never made it.

    Most human early embryos have chromosomal problems. For older mothers, these embryos tend to have too many or too few chromosomes due to problems in the process of making eggs with just one copy of each chromosome. Most chromosomally abnormal embryos don’t make it to week six so are never a recognised pregnancy.

    About 15% of recognised pregnancies spontaneously miscarry, usually before week 12, rising to 65% in women over 40. About half of miscarriages are because of chromosomal issues.

    Other mammals have similar chromosome-number problems but with an error rate of about 1% per chromosome. Cows should have 30 chromosomes in sperm or egg but about 30% of their fertilised eggs have odd chromosome numbers.

    Humans with 23 chromosomes should have about 23% of fertilised eggs with the wrong number of chromosomes but our rate is higher in part because we presently reproduce late and chromosomal errors escalate with maternal age.

    Survive that, then gestational diabetes and high blood pressures issues await, most notably pre-eclampsia, potentially lethal to mother and child, affecting about 5% of pregnancies. It is unique to humans.

    Historically, up until about 1800, childbirth was remarkably dangerous with about 1% maternal mortality risk, largely owing to pre-eclampsia, bleeding and infection. In Japanese macaques by contrast, despite offspring also having a large head, maternal mortality isn’t seen. Advances in maternal care have seen current UK maternal mortality rates plummet to 0.01%.

    Many of these problems are contingent on the placenta. Compare us to a kiwi bird that loads its large egg with resources and sits on it, even if it is dead: time and energy wasted. In mammals, if the embryo is not viable, the mother may not even know she had conceived.

    The high rate of chromosomal issues in our early embryos is a mammalian trait connected to the fact that early termination of a pregnancy lessens the costs, meaning less time wasted holding onto a dead embryo and not giving up the resources that are needed for a viable embryo to grow into a baby.

    But reduced costs are not enough to explain why chromosomal problems are so common in mammals.

    During the process of making a fertilisable egg with one copy of each chromosome, a sister cell is produced, called the polar body. It’s there to discard half of the chromosomes. It can “pay” in evolutionary terms for a chromosome to not go to the polar body when it should instead stay behind in the soon to be fertilised egg.

    It forces redirection of resources to viable offspring. This can explain why chromosomal errors are mostly maternal and why, given their lack of ability to redirect saved energy, other vertebrates don’t seem to have embryonic chromosome problems.

    Our problems with gestational diabetes are a consequence of foetuses releasing chemicals from the placenta into the mother’s blood to keep glucose available. The problems with pre-eclampsia are associated with malfunctioning placentas, in part owing to maternal immune rejection of the foetus.

    Regular unprotected sex can protect women against pre-eclampsia by helping the mother become used to paternal proteins. The fact that pre-eclampsia is human-specific may be related to our exceptionally invasive placenta that burrows deep into the uterine lining, possibly required to build our unusually large brains.

    Our other peculiarities are predicted by the most influential evolutionary theory of the last 50 years, the nearly-neutral theory. It states that natural selection is less efficient when a species has few individuals.

    A slightly harmful mutation can be removed from a population if that population is large but can increase in frequency, by chance, if the population is small. Most human-specific features evolved when our population size was around 10,000 in Africa prior to its recent (last 20,000 years) expansion. Minuscule compared to, for example, bacterial populations.

    This explains why we have such a bloated genome. The main job of DNA is to give instructions to our cells about how to make the proteins vital for life.

    That is done by just 1% of our DNA but by 85% of that of our gut-dwelling bacteria Escherichia coli. Some of our DNA is required for other reasons, such as controlling which genes get activated and when. Yet only about 10% of our DNA shows any signs of being useful.

    If you have a small population size, you also have more problems stopping genetical errors like mutations. Although DNA mutations can be beneficial, they are more commonly a curse. They are the basis of genetic diseases, be they complex (such as Crohn’s disease and predispositions to cancer), or owing to single gene effects (like cystic fibrosis and Huntington’s disease).

    We have one of the highest mutation rates of all species. Other species with massive populations have mutation rates over three orders of magnitude lower, another prediction of the nearly-neutral theory.

    A consequence of our high mutation rate is that around 5% of us suffer a “rare” genetic disease.

    Modern medicine may help cure our many ailments, but if we can’t do anything about our mutation rate, we will still get ill.

    Laurence D. Hurst is the author of The Evolution of Imperfection, published by Princeton University Press. This was enabled by funding from The Humboldt Foundation and the European Research Council.

    – ref. How did humans evolve such rotten genetics? – https://theconversation.com/how-did-humans-evolve-such-rotten-genetics-255473

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s Middle East pivot aims to counter China’s rising influence

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Maria Papageorgiou, Leverhulme Early Career Researcher, School of Geography, Politics, and Sociology, Newcastle University

    The US president, Donald Trump, claimed he was able to secure deals totalling more than US$2 trillion (£1.5 trillion) for the US on his tour of the Gulf states in May. Trump said “there has never been anything like” the amount of jobs and money these agreements will bring to the US.

    However, providing a lift for the US economy wasn’t the only thing on Trump’s mind. China’s influence in the wider Middle East region is growing fast – so much so that it was even able to mediate a detente between bitter regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023.

    Trump’s attempt to strengthen ties with countries in the Middle East is probably also a deliberate attempt to contain China’s growing regional ambitions.

    China has spent the past two decades building up its economic and political relations with the Middle East. In 2020, it replaced the EU as the largest trading partner to the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Bilateral trade between them was valued at over US$161 billion (£119 billion).

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    The Middle East has also become an important partner to China’s sprawling Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Massive infrastructure projects in the region, such as high-speed railway lines in Saudi Arabia, have provided lucrative opportunities for Chinese companies.

    The total value of Chinese construction and investment deals in the Middle East reached US$39 billion in 2024, the most of any region in the world. That year, the three countries with the highest volume of BRI-related construction contracts and investment were all in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE.

    China has also strengthened its financial cooperation with Middle Eastern countries, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia. As part of China’s efforts to reduce global reliance on the US dollar for trade, it has arranged cross-border trade settlements, currency swap agreements, and is engaging in digital currency collaboration initiatives with these countries.

    American security guarantees have historically fostered an alignment between the Gulf states and the west. The string of agreements Trump signed with countries there reflects an attempt to draw them away from China and back towards Washington’s orbit.

    Countering China

    One of the more significant developments from Trump’s trip was an agreement to deepen US technological cooperation with the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The US and UAE announced they would work together to construct the largest AI data centre outside of the US in Abu Dhabi.

    Technology is one of the key areas where China has been trying to assert its influence in the region. Through Beijing’s so-called “Digital Silk Road” initiative, which aims to develop a global digital ecosystem with China at its centre, Chinese firms have secured deals with Middle Eastern countries to provide 5G mobile network technology.

    Chinese tech giants Huawei and Alibaba are also in the process of signing partnerships with telecommunications providers in the region for collaboration and research in cloud computing. These companies have gained traction by aligning closely with national government priorities, such as Saudi Arabia’s initiative to diversify its economy through tech development.

    American companies, including Amazon, Microsoft and Google, have spent years building regional tech ecosystems across the Gulf. Trump is looking to recover this momentum. He was joined in the Middle East by more than 30 leaders of top American companies, who also secured commercial deals with their peers from the Gulf.

    US quantum computing company Quantinuum and Qatari investment firm Al Rabban Capital finalised a joint venture worth up to a US$1 billion. The agreement will see investment in quantum technologies and workforce development in the US and Qatar.

    There are two other areas where Trump is trying to cut China off. American companies and Abu Dhabi’s state-run oil firm agreed a US$60 billion energy partnership. China is heavily dependent on the Middle East for energy, with almost half of the oil it uses coming from the region. Greater alignment with the US could hamper Beijing’s ability to secure the resources it needs.

    Trump also signed a raft of defence deals with Qatar and Saudi Arabia. These included a US$1 billion deal for Qatar to acquire drone defence technology from American aerospace conglomerate Raytheon RTX, and a US$142 billion agreement for the Saudis to buy military equipment from US firms.

    These moves underscore Washington’s intention to limit China’s influence in key defence sectors. China is a key player in the global market for commercial and military drones, providing Saudi Arabia and the UAE with a large share of their combat drones.

    One final aspect of Trump’s trip was his brief meeting with Syria’s interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa. Trump signalled possible sanctions relief, which has since come into effect. This constituted more than a diplomatic thaw.

    With China positioning itself as a regional mediator and Russia struggling with a diminished role following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the US is looking to reassert itself as the primary power broker in the region.

    Dr Maria (Mary) Papageorgiou receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust.

    – ref. Trump’s Middle East pivot aims to counter China’s rising influence – https://theconversation.com/trumps-middle-east-pivot-aims-to-counter-chinas-rising-influence-257366

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Gen Z and the sustainability paradox: Why ideals and shopping habits don’t always align

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Melise Panetta, Lecturer of Marketing in the Lazaridis School of Business and Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University

    Often praised as the ‘sustainability generation,’ Gen Z has been at the forefront of calls for ethical production, environmental accountability and climate-conscious living. (Shutterstock)

    As the summer shopping season kicks off, all eyes are on Gen Z — those born between 1997 and 2012 and whose purchasing power wields significant influence over market trends.

    Often lauded as the “sustainability generation,” a closer look reveals a complex internal struggle: despite their strong desire for eco-conscious living, many Gen Z consumers find themselves drawn to the allure of fast, affordable, trend-driven consumption.

    This discrepancy between belief and action, known as the “attitude-behaviour gap,” is a defining characteristic of Gen Z consumerism. While it’s not unique to Gen Z, it’s particularly pronounced due to their vocal environmentalism and their immersion in a hyper-consumerist digital world.

    Understanding consumer behaviour at a deeper level means looking past stated preferences and focusing instead on the economic, technological and cultural forces that shape real-world decisions.

    The rise of the eco-conscious Gen Z consumer

    There’s no denying Gen Z’s pronounced environmental awareness compared to other generations.

    Raised in the era of climate crisis and corporate responsibility, they gravitate toward brands that reflect their values. Over 75 per cent say sustainability matters more than brand name, and 81 per cent are willing to pay more for eco-friendly products.

    This isn’t merely performative — Gen Z actively integrates sustainability into their lives. They’re more likely than any other generation to research a brand’s ethics and environmental impact before buying, often using social media to guide decisions.

    More than 70 per cent discover sustainable products via platforms like Instagram and TikTok, fuelling social movements like Who Made My Clothes and supporting businesses like LastObject, a company that uses digital crowdfunding to engage environmentally conscious consumers.

    They’re also behind the rise of the second-hand market, which is expected to hit US$329 billion globally by 2029. With 40 per cent of Gen Z — the highest rate of any age group — shopping resale, platforms like Depop and ThredUp have seen explosive growth.

    Gen Z’s consumer behaviour is also influencing the spending habits of older generations. According to the World Economic Forum, increased spending on sustainable brands by groups like Generation X is being driven, in part, by Gen Z’s values, behaviours and expectations.

    Gen Z’s push for sustainable consumption is shifting the market and everyone in it.

    When values clash with spending habits

    Fast fashion, frictionless e-commerce and the constant churn of social media trends have created a marketplace where sustainable intentions are easily sidelined.

    Viral phenomena like Shein hauls — videos where social media influencers flaunt dozens of ultra-cheap outfits — spotlight the contradiction.

    In the first 19 weeks of 2025 alone, Shein’s app amassed over 54 million downloads, a staggering number that underscores how affordability and instant gratification often win out over sustainability. Built on rapid production and ultra-low prices, Shein’s model encourages frequent, high-volume purchases — the antithesis of the “buy less, buy better” ethos that underpins sustainable consumption.

    And this pattern extends far beyond fashion. The wider consumer landscape rewards speed and low cost at every turn. Gen Z came of age with one-click ordering and next-day delivery — conveniences that are now baseline expectations for shoppers. These days, nearly half of Gen Z consumers prioritize fast shipping, despite its high environmental cost.

    Meanwhile, the social media platforms where they discover new eco-conscious brands are the same ones pushing relentless trend cycles that encourage over-consumption, from gadgets to clothing and lifestyle products.

    Sustainability often comes with a steep price tag, one many young Gen Z consumers simply can’t afford. Brands like Patagonia or Allbirds are aspirational, but in the context of the cost-of-living crisis, fast-fashion giants like Zara, H&M and TJX Companies offer more budget-friendly options.

    Navigating the ‘attitude-behaviour’ gap

    The disconnect between Gen Z’s values and their consumption patterns isn’t about hypocrisy. Rather, it’s about navigating a system where sustainable choices are harder, more expensive and often less visible.

    Gen Z’s struggle shows that living sustainably in a world designed for speed, savings and social validation is an uphill battle — even for the generation most determined to make a difference.

    Bridging this gap demands action on several fronts. For businesses, it means innovating to make sustainable options more affordable and accessible. Transparency in supply chain practices and clear communication about environmental impact are also key to building trust with consumers.

    For Gen Z themselves, transparency about the true cost of consumption is vital. Fostering critical thinking about marketing messages and the impact of social media trends can empower them to make choices that more consistently align with their values.

    As the summer unfolds and consumer spending rises, the choices made by Gen Z will be a significant indicator of our collective path towards a more sustainable economy. Their ideals are a powerful force for change, but translating those ideals into consistent action remains the critical challenge.

    Melise Panetta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Gen Z and the sustainability paradox: Why ideals and shopping habits don’t always align – https://theconversation.com/gen-z-and-the-sustainability-paradox-why-ideals-and-shopping-habits-dont-always-align-257601

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A First Nations power authority could transform electricity generation for Indigenous nations

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Christina E. Hoicka, Canada Research Chair in Urban Planning for Climate Change, Associate Professor of Geography and Civil Engineering, University of Victoria

    First Nations across British Columbia have developed renewable electricity projects for decades. Yet they’ve experienced significant barriers to implementing, owning and managing their own electricity supply. That’s because there have been few procurement policies in place that require their involvement.

    While municipalities are allowed to own and operate electricity utilities in B.C., First Nations are not. The Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (DRIPA) in B.C. requires that First Nations are provided with opportunities for economic development without discrimination.

    Many First Nations in B.C. view the development of renewable electricity projects on their lands (like hydro power, solar panels, wind turbines and transmission lines) as a way to achieve social, environmental and economic goals that are important to their community.

    These goals may include powering buildings in the community, creating economic development and local jobs, earning revenue, improving access to affordable and reliable electricity or using less diesel.

    Our new study shares the story of a coalition of First Nations and organizations that advocated for changes to electricity regulations and laws to give Indigenous communities more control to develop renewable electricity projects. Our interviews with knowledge holders from 14 First Nations offer insight into motivations behind their calls for regulatory changes.

    The coalition includes the Clean Energy Association of B.C., New Relationship Trust, Pembina Institute, First Nations Power Authority, Nuu-Chah-Nulth Tribal Council, and the First Nations Clean Energy Working Group.

    Models for a First Nations power authority

    Almost all electricity customers in B.C. are served by BC Hydro, the electric utility owned by the provincial government.

    The coalition argues that applying DRIPA to the electricity sector should allow First Nations to form a First Nations power authority. Such an organization would provide them with control over the development of electricity infrastructure that aligns with their values and would also help B.C. meet its greenhouse gas reduction targets.

    In the Re-Imagining Social Energy Transitions CoLaboratory (ReSET CoLab) at the University of Victoria, we analyzed regulatory documents from the B.C. Utilities Commission, and advocacy documents and presentations for discussion developed by the coalition.

    We identified six proposed First Nations power authority (Indigenous Utility) models:

    A capacity building point-of-contact model streamlines the development of renewable electricity projects to sell power to the provincial utility. For example, the First Nations Power Authority in Saskatchewan was formed for this purpose by SaskPower.

    This would be the most conformative model. It would provide vital networks and connections to First Nations while allowing BC Hydro and the British Columbia Utilities Commission to maintain full control over the electricity sector.

    In the second model, called a “put” contract, a B.C. First Nations Power Authority represents First Nations wishing to develop renewable electricity projects. Whenever the province needs to build new electricity generation projects to meet growing electricity demand, a portion of the new generation is developed by the First Nations authority.

    In the third model, First Nations build and operate electricity transmission and distribution lines to allow remote industrial facilities and communities to connect to the electricity grid. This is called “Industrial Interconnection.”

    For example, the Wataynikaneyap Power Transmission line in Ontario is a 1,800-kilometre line that provides an electricity grid connection for 17 previously remote nations. Twenty-four First Nations own 51 per cent of the line, while private investors own 49 per cent.

    In the fourth model, the B.C. First Nation Power Authority acts as the designated body for various opportunities in the electricity sector, such as the development of electricity transmission, distribution, generation or customer services. This model is referred to as “local or regional ‘ticket’ opportunities.”

    Fifth, the First Nation Power Authority develops renewable electricity projects and distributes electricity from these projects to customers as a retailer, or under an agreement through the BC Hydro electricity grid. For example, Nova Scotia Power’s Green Choice program procures renewable electricity from independent power producers to supply to electricity customers.

    Sixth, new utility is formed in B.C., owned by First Nations, that owns and operates electricity generation, transmission and distribution services and offers standard customer services in a specific region of B.C. (called a “Regional Vertically-Integrated Power Authority”).

    Most of these models would require changes to regulations. The sixth and most transformative model would provide First Nations with full decision-making control over electricity generation, transmission and distribution. It would also give them the ability to sell to customers and require extensive changes in electricity regulation.

    Improving living standards

    First Nations knowledge-holders told us that a lack of reliable power, high electricity rates, lack of control over projects on their traditional lands and the need for resilience in the face of climate events were motivations for taking electricity planning into their own hands.

    They also expressed that varied factors motivate community interest in renewable energy: improving the quality of life for community members; financial independence; mitigating climate change; protecting the environment; reducing diesel use and providing stable and safe power for current and future generations.

    First Nations are already seeking to capitalize on the benefits of renewable energy by developing their own projects within the current regulatory system.

    Most of those we spoke to see a First Nations power authority in B.C. as a means to provide opportunities for economic development without discrimination — and to achieve self-determination, self-reliance and reconciliation by addressing the root causes of some of the colonial injustices they face by obtaining control over the electricity sector on their lands.

    This article was co-authored by David Benton, an adopted member and Clean Energy Project Lead of Gitga’at First Nation and Kayla Klym, a BSc student in Geography at the University of Victoria.

    For this research project, Dr. Christina E. Hoicka received funding from Natural Resources Canada Clean Energy for Rural and Remote Communities Program (CERRC), Capacity Building Stream funding program. The research was conducted in partnership for the Clean Energy Association of British Columbia, and the New Relationship Trust. This work was also supported by the New Frontiers in Research Fund Global NFRFG-2020-00339 and the Canada Research Chair Secretariat CRC-2020-00055.

    Anna Berka is affiliated with Community Power Agency, a not-for-profit workers co-operative working to ensure a fair and accessible energy transition for all.

    Adam J. Regier and Sara Chitsaz do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A First Nations power authority could transform electricity generation for Indigenous nations – https://theconversation.com/a-first-nations-power-authority-could-transform-electricity-generation-for-indigenous-nations-254982

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –