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Category: Academic Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: How physicists used antimatter, supercomputers and giant magnets to solve a 20-year-old mystery

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Finn Stokes, Ramsay Fellow in Physics, University of Adelaide

    Cindy Arnold, Fermilab

    Physicists are always searching for new theories to improve our understanding of the universe and resolve big unanswered questions.

    But there’s a problem. How do you search for undiscovered forces or particles when you don’t know what they look like?

    Take dark matter. We see signs of this mysterious cosmic phenomenon throughout the universe, but what could it possibly be made of? Whatever it is, we’re going to need new physics to understand what’s going on.

    Thanks to a new experimental result published today, and the new theoretical calculations that accompany it, we may now have an idea what this new physics should look like – and maybe even some clues about dark matter.

    Meet the muon

    For 20 years, one of the most promising signs of new physics has been
    a tiny inconsistency in the magnetism of a particle called the muon. The muon is a lot like an electron but is much heavier.

    Muons are produced when cosmic rays – high-energy particles from space – hit Earth’s atmosphere. Roughly 50 of these muons pass through your body every second.

    Muons travel through solid objects much better than x-rays, so they are useful for finding out what is inside large structures. For example, they have been used to look for hidden chambers in Egyptian and Mexican pyramids; to study magma chambers inside volcanoes to predict volcanic eruptions; and to safely see inside the Fukushima nuclear reactor after it melted down.

    A tiny crack in physics?

    In 2006, researchers at Brookhaven National Laboratory in the United States measured the strength of the muon’s magnetism incredibly precisely.

    Their measurement was accurate to roughly six parts in ten billion. This is equivalent to measuring the mass of a loaded freight train to ten grams. This was compared to a similarly impressive theoretical calculation.

    When researchers compared the two numbers, they found a tiny but significant difference, indicating a mismatch between theory and experiment. Had they finally found the new physics they’d been looking for?

    A better experiment

    To find a definitive answer, the international scientific community started a 20-year program to increase the precision of both results.

    The huge electromagnet from the original experiment was loaded onto a barge and shipped down the east coast of the US and then up the Mississippi River to Chicago. There, it was installed at Fermilab for a completely overhauled experiment.

    The giant ring of magnets used to study the muon’s magnetism was shipped from New York to Chicago in 2013.
    Reidar Hahn/ Fermilab

    Just this morning, researchers announced they had finished that experiment. Their final result for the strength of the muon’s magnetism is 4.4 times more precise, at one-and-a-half parts in ten billion.

    And better calculations

    To keep up, theorists had to make sweeping improvements too. They formed the Muon g-2 Theory Initiative, an international collaboration of more than 100 scientists, dedicated to making an accurate theoretical prediction.

    They computed the contributions to the muon’s magnetism from more than 10,000 factors. They even included a particle called the Higgs boson, which was only discovered in 2012.

    But there was one last sticking point: the strong nuclear force, one of the universe’s four fundamental forces. In particular, computing the largest contribution to the result from the strong nuclear force was no easy feat.

    Antimatter vs supercomputers

    It was not possible to compute this contribution in the same way as the others, so we needed a different approach.

    In 2020, the Theory Initiative turned to collisions between electrons and their antimatter counterparts: positrons. Measurements of these electron–positron collisions provided the missing values we needed.

    Put together with all the other parts, this gave a result that strongly disagreed with the latest experimental measurement. The disagreement was almost strong enough to announce the discovery of new physics.

    Simulations carried out with the Hawk supercomputer at the High-Performance Computing Center Stuttgart resolved the discrepancy between calculations and experiment.
    Marijan Murat/picture alliance via Getty Images

    At the same time, I was exploring a different approach. Along with my colleagues in the Budapest-Marseille-Wuppertal collaboration, we performed a supercomputer simulation of this strong contribution.

    Our result eliminated the tension between theory and experiment. However, now we had a new tension: between our simulation and the electron–positron results which had withstood 20 years of scrutiny. How could those 20-year-old results be wrong?

    Hints of new physics disappear

    Since then, two other groups have produced full simulations that agree with ours, and many more have validated parts of our result. We have also produced a new, overhauled simulation that almost doubles our precision (released as a preprint, which has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a scientific journal).

    To ensure these new simulations weren’t affected by any preconceptions, they were performed “blind”. The simulation data was multiplied by an unknown number before being analysed, so we didn’t know what a “good” or “bad” result would be.

    We then held a nerve-wracking and exciting meeting. The blinding factor was revealed, and we found out the results of years of work all at once. After all this, our latest result agrees even better with the experimental measurement of the muon’s magnetism.

    But others emerge

    The Muon g-2 Theory Initiative has moved to using the simulation results instead of the electron-positron data in its official prediction, and the hint of new physics seems to be gone.

    Except … why does the electron–positron data disagree? Physicists around the globe have studied this question extensively, and one exciting suggestion is a hypothetical particle called a “dark photon”.

    Not only could the dark photon explain the difference between the latest muon results and the electron–positron experiments, but (if it exists) it could also explain how dark matter relates to ordinary matter.

    Finn Stokes receives in-kind funding from the National Computational Infrastructure through the National Computational Merit Allocation Scheme. They are supported by a Ramsay Fellowship from the University of Adelaide.

    – ref. How physicists used antimatter, supercomputers and giant magnets to solve a 20-year-old mystery – https://theconversation.com/how-physicists-used-antimatter-supercomputers-and-giant-magnets-to-solve-a-20-year-old-mystery-257891

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Artist Janenne Eaton’s retrospective is a compelling account of our troubled times

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julie Shiels, Senior Industry Fellow, RMIT University

    Janenne Eaton R E E F 2015 enamel paint, vinyl decals, mirror and polymer clay on canvas Geelong Gallery Gift of the artist, 2019. Photographer: Mark Ashkanasy © the artist.

    With bad news-overload it is easy to conclude it is time to disengage. But troubling events don’t go away just because you stop looking. Janenne Eaton’s retrospective reminds us that art can provide new perspectives and a reason to look even harder.

    As a respected painter and teacher Eaton has influenced generations of Australian artists. She has exhibited extensively in museums and galleries nationally and internationally since 1978. Lines of Sight – Frame and Horizon is long overdue.

    This comprehensive exhibition is aesthetically and intellectually compelling. The paintings, drawings and installations offer complex, layered reflections on key moments from the last four decades.

    Rather than adopting a linear chronology, artworks are clustered to prompt dialogues between works across time. Eaton’s technical mastery and dexterity produces deliberate ambiguities. Her recognisable motifs and grid patterns convey rich ideas about human rights, colonisation, climate and First Nations justice, all underpinned by existential questions about uncertainty and meaning.

    Locked in or locked out?

    Supersized artworks populate the first space – Eaton’s underground car park drawings (1982–86) and two works using fences, from 2016 and 2019. Both series use layering to represent built structures, but proximity to each other in the gallery emphasises the differences.

    The dusty, velvety surfaces of the car parks emphasise volume and perspective. The fences made from acrylic board and high-gloss enamel flatten and compress space.

    In the carpark series, Eaton’s knowledge of art history is apparent in her Renaissance-influenced use of light and perspective. Texture and surface have been achieved by papering the canvas with found photocopies.

    Janenne Eaton, Adelaide I 1983, graphite, charcoal and photocopy toner on paper on canvas, Heide Museum of Modern Art, The Baillieu Myer Collection of the ‘80s.
    Photographer: Mark Ashkanasy, © the artist.

    Dense, sooty carbon extracted from ink-cartridges smothers the solid areas and light in touch graphite and charcoal drawing produce an underground environment that some may find contemplative and others sinister.

    They evoke an ambiguity of being simultaneously attracted and repelled. And there are sensory questions. Does it smell or echo? Is that the sun or artificial light? Is it hot or cold?

    This series reflects Eaton’s training in archaeology and draws attention to the cultural significance of subterranean spaces. In a time of geopolitical turbulence and endemic inequality other readings are open to us.

    By comparison, Fences, Borders, Walls (2016) makes clear who is locked in and who is locked out. The foreground dominates with hard-edged geometric forms; the word “fence” is mirrored and repeated, compromising its legibility but adding structural heft as a physical and psychological barrier.

    The small diamond grid is immediately legible in the middle ground as the chain-link barriers that kept men, women and children refugees incarcerated for indefinite periods on Manus and Nauru. The skilfully airbrushed background provides gradations of light and shade, suggesting the movement of bodies.

    Janenne Eaton, BORDERLANDS 2019, enamel paint on high-impact polystyrene, metal.
    Courtesy of the artist. Photographer: Mark Ashkanasy, © the artist.

    In Borderlands (2019), the grid is reprised and the phrase “keep clear” repeated and butted against two upended half skulls that stare out at the viewer. We are implicated as we peer back into our own reflections in the empty intervals of glossy black.

    Recognisable motifs

    Eaton reworks familiar imagery from popular culture, mass media and advertising – gunshot decals, slogans, road signs, everyday idioms. The immediate visual recognition invites us into her work and encourages us to look harder.

    Sometimes, the title and date alludes to a backstory. Banner for the Deputy Sheriff (2006) brings to mind depictions of John Howard as America’s “deputy sheriff”.

    Janenne Eaton, Banner for the Deputy Sheriff 2006, enamel paint on canvas, Courtesy of the artist. Photographer: Mark Ashkanasy, © the artist.

    A two-metre toy sheriff’s star floats on a painted ground of ranch-like planks. The mismatched scale of the two planes suggests the overblown self-importance of a leader desperate to ingratiate himself in Washington, rather than galvanise relationships with Australia’s Asian and Pacific neighbours. At the centre of the star, the upended moniker “Deputy Sheriff” surrounds a shooting target replete with a smudgy spatter.

    Bullet holes are regular motifs in Eaton’s compositions, as adhesive decals, perforations, or rendered in paint. Dark Star (2015) is a dense mix of bullet puncture holes, grids, stars and pop symbols and text. Like many of Eaton’s compositions, it is visually weighty.

    Nearest Neighbour Analysis (2021) is light and airy, as Eaton connects her field of evenly spaced bullet-hole decals with a network of lines, creating a painting devoid of signs of earthly life that is both cellular and paradoxically celestial.

    Janenne Eaton, Dark Star 2015, enamel paint and vinyl decals on canvas, Private collection. Photographer: Mark Ashkanasy, © the artist.

    OUTGO (2009) is a speculative visualisation of a digital realm. Eaton’s painting draws on the aesthetics of the screen and corrupted computer code. Constructed from multiple layers of bitmaps and pixelations, gobbledygook text and marzipan-coloured lozenges appear to float across the picture plane. It is oddly luscious and captivating.

    Eaton’s interest in archaeology and principles of stratification inform the layering processes in her artwork. Across the five rooms at Geelong Gallery, curator Jason Smith and Eaton have created a layered experience for the viewer.

    Janenne Eaton, OUTGO 2009, enamel paint on canvas, National Gallery of Victoria, Gift of the artist, 2019.
    Photographer: Mark Ashkanasy, © the artist.

    Aesthetic frissons, shifting ambiguities, hindsight and insight accumulate and become a complex account of the human condition in a time of flux and uncertainty. And it’s a potent reminder to look even harder.

    Lines of Sight – Frame and Horizon, is at Geelong Gallery until August 17.

    Julie Shiels does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Artist Janenne Eaton’s retrospective is a compelling account of our troubled times – https://theconversation.com/artist-janenne-eatons-retrospective-is-a-compelling-account-of-our-troubled-times-254069

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The chicks are alright: what songbirds can teach us about divorce and moving on

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Frigg Janne Daan Speelman, PhD Candidate in Behavioural Ecology, Macquarie University

    Charli Davies, CC BY-NC-ND

    In humans, it’s very common for the traditional family structure of two parents raising children to change abruptly. Usually, this happens when the parents decide to separate.

    Many separated couples are able to navigate this change well to ensure their children are not overly affected. But this isn’t guaranteed. Parental separation can lead to behavioural, developmental and health issues in children. The effect can be long-lasting.

    That’s humans. But many other species have a similar arrangement in choosing a long-term mate to raise offspring. What effect does it have when these couples split up?

    In our new research, we examine what happens after a family split in a tropical bird species known for its long-lasting partnerships. To our surprise, we found the separation had no long term effect on the health of their offspring.

    Family drama on a tropical island

    Most birds form strong partnerships to raise offspring as a couple. Raising baby birds is an intense job. Having two parents at the nest is often essential for the survival of the chicks.

    The Seychelles warbler is no exception. These small songbirds live only on the Seychelles, northeast of Madagascar.

    They often pair for life and defend a territory together. The longest documented partnership is 15 years.

    Still, family life is not always perfect for these warblers. Of all warbler couples, about one in seven (14%) end in a separation.

    In these cases, one of the parents leaves their territory and finds a new mate elsewhere when there is still an egg, young chick or fledgling in their original nest.

    The Seychelles warbler lives on a few islands in the Seychelles. This is the view from Cousin Island, home to a long-studied population of these songbirds.
    Frigg Speelman, CC BY-NC-ND

    How do you know if a bird is stressed?

    For decades, a team of international researchers has studied the population of warblers on Cousin Island nature reserve. The dataset they have gathered includes information about the relationship status of all birds, as well as measures of their wellbeing, lifespan and how many offspring they produce.

    Using this data, we looked at what happened to the offspring of partners who had split up.

    We measured the stress levels of chicks who hatched just before the ending of their parents’ relationship up to the moment they reached adolescence.

    In humans, it’s common to measure stress by looking at the levels of cortisol in saliva and hair. But measuring stress in birds is a little different. To do this, we used three biomarkers which indicate physiological stress experienced by animals.

    The first is telomere length, the protective “caps” on the end of chromosomes which protect DNA against damage. The shorter the telomeres, the higher the stress.

    The second is the percentage of red blood cells in blood, which shows how well a warbler chick can use oxygen. The third is body condition, which indicates a bird’s fat reserves. These three markers let us gauge the stress levels and health of young warblers.

    We also wanted to know whether parental separation would have lifelong consequences for the chicks. To find this out, we compared chicks from separated parents to those with more stable nests and assessed how long they lived and how many offspring they produced.

    Warbler separation doesn’t stress chicks

    What we found was surprising. There was no evidence the separation of parents affected the stress levels of chicks or their long-term survival and breeding success.

    Why might this be?

    One reason is that these birds don’t linger on the past. They move on very quickly.

    When a partnership ends through separation or death, it opens up a vacancy – which can be quickly filled.

    When separation happens, one bird leaves. The remaining partner can find themselves left with offspring to take care of themselves.

    But parenting chicks is only half the story – nesting is also about territory. Cousin is a very small island of just 0.3 square kilometres with over 300 Seychelles warblers living on it.

    That means the space to breed is very limited. As a result, when vacancies arise they’re often filled just hours after separation.

    For the chicks, this means they now have a step-parent who can help raise them almost immediately. This means they don’t face a future with less parental care.

    Family life can be complicated for the Seychelles warbler. Separations leave quickly filled vacancies, where unrelated birds can help raise young.
    Charli Davies, CC BY-NC-ND

    That’s not all. The Seychelles warbler is known for an unusual arrangement in which breeding couples sometimes receive help from other warblers, known as cooperative breeding.

    On Cousin Island, there are more Seychelles warblers than there are breeding vacancies, meaning many adults can’t secure a partner and territory. These adults can join couples in established territories and help raise the offspring. This extra help may offset any reduced parental care after the ending of a partnership, meaning the offspring are still well off.

    What we can learn from this

    Our research shows Seychelles warbler chicks are better able to weather their parents separating than we expected.

    Importantly, this humble bird is just one of a huge group of species who form socially monogamous partnerships where both parents raise the offspring.

    Whether a parental relationship ending affects other species remains to be seen.

    Frigg Janne Daan Speelman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The chicks are alright: what songbirds can teach us about divorce and moving on – https://theconversation.com/the-chicks-are-alright-what-songbirds-can-teach-us-about-divorce-and-moving-on-256101

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Just the ticket? The problem with local body candidates aligning with national political parties

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julienne Molineaux, Senior Lecturer, School of Social Sciences and Humanities, Auckland University of Technology

    Getty Images

    With accusations flying thick and fast last year about supposed “dysfunction” and a “shambles” at Wellington City Council, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown stepped in and appointed a Crown Observer.

    Announcing the move, Brown said the “financial and behavioural challenges” facing the council represented a problem under the Local Government Act. Part of the issue, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon claimed recently, was that there had been “way too much ideology and party politics”.

    With the Green-endorsed current mayor Tory Whanau withdrawing from the next election, and former Labour cabinet minister Andrew Little announcing his mayoralty bid, it remains to be seen whether those partisan perceptions have diminished.

    But at the other end of the political spectrum, the ACT Party is actively recruiting candidates to stand at the 2025 elections using its branding and policy platform. The ACT website states clear policy positions for prospective candidates to campaign on.

    The Local Government Act, on the other hand, requires elected members to consult with people affected by their decisions and to do so with an open mind. Reinforcing this point, the Office of the Auditor-General says those managing public resources must avoid holding pre-determined positions:

    You are not required to approach every decision as though you have given it no prior thought, or have no existing knowledge or opinion. However, you are required to keep an open mind, and you must be prepared to change or adjust your views if the evidence or arguments warrant it.

    If ACT is successful in building a local government ticket nationally, this tension – and the kind of tensions recently at play in Wellington – could be seen in other councils.

    Benefits of party branding

    Political party affiliations in local government are not actually the norm. In 2019, winning councillors around New Zealand mostly left the affiliation section of their nomination forms blank (60%) or stated they were “independent” (18%).

    Only 3% of winning councillors were affiliated with a registered political party, and 4% with a local grouping or ticket.

    But the picture changes in our three largest councils: Auckland Council, Christchurch City Council and Wellington City Council. No winning councillors in those cities left the affiliation section blank in 2019, 38% ran on a local ticket, and 22% for a political party.

    And there are good reasons for local body candidates to run as party-endorsed or on a local ticket, as former local body politician Shirin Brown outlined in her PhD thesis on Local Boards in Auckland: shared costs, shared resources (such as party volunteers to deliver leaflets), shared expertise and brand recognition for voters.

    Importantly, a candidate with low name recognition can coat-tail on higher profile candidates on the same ticket, or the public profile of the ticket overall. Other research suggests the strategy works: in Auckland, at least, those who stand with a group affiliation are more likely to be elected than those who do not.

    In larger urban areas, with high populations and low levels of representation per capita, visible groupings of local government candidates make sense. Research reveals a major obstacle to voting in local elections is a lack of information about candidates and what they stand for.

    Blurred party lines

    Once elected, though, there are questions about the cohesion of groupings. Shirin Brown found the ad-hoc nature of some local tickets for Auckland’s local boards – formed for strategic election reasons but with little coherence or discipline once elected – sometimes collapsed once in office.

    In Auckland, ward councillors and the mayor have run with group branding, but there is little evidence of whipping along party, ticket or broad ideological lines.

    As a councillor for the Manukau ward (2016-2022), the late Efeso Collins stood for election as a Labour Party candidate, but he voted against some initiatives of the Mayor Phil Goff, a former leader of the Labour Party.

    Communities and Residents (C&R) councillors have mostly been aligned with the National Party, but have also included ACT and unaffiliated centre-right candidates.

    While they often voted against Goff, and earlier against Labour Party member Len Brown (mayor from 2010-2016), it wasn’t always as a uniform block. Indeed, Brown’s initiatives were simultaneously opposed by Cathy Casey (City Vision) on the left and Cameron Brewer (C&R) on the right.

    Keeping an open mind

    As this year’s local elections approach, the Crown Observer for Wellington City Council, Lindsay McKenzie, has written candidate guidelines about political affiliations and their legal obligations to avoid predetermined positions.

    These cover the promises they make on the campaign trail as well as how they act once elected. They address the tension between the democratic act of signalling your values and policy positions to voters, and the requirement under the Local Government Act to make decisions based on local concerns rather than political affiliation.

    As McKenzie points out, having an open mind is not just an issue for party members. It also applies to those who stand as independents and adhere rigidly to policy positions they campaigned on.

    Irrespective of their affiliation, candidates in the upcoming local elections have a tightrope to walk – between declaring their values and policy positions, and being receptive to new information and perspectives once elected.

    Voters need to accept elected members may have access to information that was not available when they were campaigning. And the political media needs to give some leeway to councillors and mayors who change their positions.

    Julienne Molineaux does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Just the ticket? The problem with local body candidates aligning with national political parties – https://theconversation.com/just-the-ticket-the-problem-with-local-body-candidates-aligning-with-national-political-parties-257887

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Not available in your region’: what is a VPN and how can I use one safely?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Meena Jha, Head Technology and Pedagogy Cluster CML-NET, CQUniversity Australia

    Linaimages/Shutterstock

    “This video is not available in your location”. It’s a message familiar to many people trying to watch global content online. But beneath this frustration lies a deeper question – how do we navigate digital borders safely and ethically?

    As our digital lives expand, so too does our desire for access. Maybe you want to see the latest streaming shows before they arrive in your country. Maybe you’re a sports fan wanting to watch live broadcasts of international events. Or perhaps you need to log into your company’s secure intranet while at home or overseas.

    Enter the virtual private network (VPN) – a technology that’s become as essential as antivirus software for many. With many commercial and free VPN providers on the market, interest in these services has grown in recent years.

    How does a VPN work?

    A VPN is like a secure tunnel between your device and the internet. When you use a VPN, your internal traffic is scrambled into unreadable data and routed through a remote server, which also masks your real IP address.

    Think of it like this: instead of sending a postcard with your return address, you send it in an envelope to a trusted friend overseas who mails it on your behalf. To anyone looking at the envelope, it looks like the message came from your friend and not you.

    This technique shields your identity, protects your data from snoopers, and tricks websites into thinking you are browsing from another location.

    While often marketed as tools for online privacy, VPNs have grown popular for another reason: access.

    Many people use VPNs to access geo-blocked content, secure their internet activity, work remotely – especially when handling sensitive data – and protect against online tracking and targeted advertising.



    Read more:
    What does it mean to ‘accept’ or ‘reject’ all cookies, and which should I choose?

    VPNs are legal, if a bit grey

    VPN services are offered by dozens of providers globally. Companies such as NordVPN, ProtonVPN, ExpressVPN and Surfshark offer paid subscriptions with strong security guarantees. Free VPNs also exist but come with caveats (more on this in a moment).

    In most countries, including Australia, using a VPN is completely legal.

    However, what makes it murky is what one might use it for. While using a VPN is legal, engaging in illegal activities while using one remains prohibited.

    Streaming services like Netflix or Disney+ license content by region. Using a VPN to access a foreign catalogue may violate their terms of service and potentially be grounds for account suspension.

    Australian law does not criminalise accessing geo-blocked content via VPN, but the copyright act does prohibit circumventing “technological protection measures” in certain cases.

    The grey area lies in enforcement. Technically, copyright law does ban getting around certain protections. However, the latest advice does not mention any cases where regular users have been taken to court for this kind of behaviour.

    So far, enforcement has mostly targeted websites and platforms that host or enable large-scale copyright infringement; not everyday viewers who want to watch a show a bit early.

    Beware of ‘free’ VPNs

    Not all VPNs are created equal. While premium services invest in strong encryption and privacy protections, free VPNs often make money by collecting user data – the very thing you may be trying to avoid.

    Risks of unsafe VPNs include data leaks, injection of ads or trackers into your browsing, and malware and spyware, especially in free mobile apps that claim to provide a VPN service.

    Using a poorly designed or dishonest VPN is like hiring a bodyguard who sells your location. It might give the impression of safety, but you may actually be more vulnerable than before.

    Okay, so how do I choose a VPN?

    With so many VPNs available, both free and paid, it can be hard to know which one to trust. If you are considering a VPN, here are five things to look for.

    No-log policy. A trustworthy VPN should have a strict no-log policy, meaning it does not store any records of your internet activity, connection time or IP address. This ensures even if the VPN provider is hacked, subpoenaed or pressured by a government, they have nothing to hand over.

    Strong encryption standards. Encryption is what makes your data unreadable to anyone snooping on your connection, such as hackers on public WiFi or your internet provider. A somewhat technical thing to look out for is AES 256-bit encryption – it’s extremely secure and is used by banks and governments.

    Independent audits. Reliable VPN services voluntarily undergo third-party audits to verify their privacy claims and the security of their infrastructure.

    Kill switch. A kill switch is a critical safety feature that automatically blocks internet traffic if the VPN connection drops. This prevents your real IP address and data from being exposed, even momentarily.

    Jurisdiction. VPNs are subject to the laws of the country they are based in. The countries in the Five Eyes intelligence alliance (Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, United States and New Zealand) may legally compel providers to hand over user data. If a VPN service has a strict no-log policy and does not collect information about what you do online, then even under legal pressure, there is nothing to hand over. So, you are safe.

    In an era of growing surveillance, cybercrime and corporate data collection, VPNs are essential tools for reclaiming your online privacy and data.

    But like any tool, the effectiveness (and ethics) of VPNs depend on how you use them. Next time you fire up your VPN, ask yourself – am I just dodging a digital border, or actively protecting my online freedom?

    Meena Jha does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘Not available in your region’: what is a VPN and how can I use one safely? – https://theconversation.com/not-available-in-your-region-what-is-a-vpn-and-how-can-i-use-one-safely-256559

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian airfields could derail Russia’s war efforts

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University

    The drone attacks by Ukrainian Operation Spider’s Web forces on Russian airfields have called into question Russia’s supposed military strength.

    Russian authorities have acknowledged damage from the June 1 attacks — an unusual admission that suggests the strikes were probably effective, given Russia’s usual pattern of downplaying or denying the success of Ukrainian operations.

    The operation’s most significant target was the Belaya air base, north of Mongolia. Belaya, like the other bases targeted, is a critical component in the Russian Air Force’s strategic strike capabilities because it houses planes capable of long-range nuclear and conventional strikes.

    It’s also in Irkutsk, approximately 4,500 kilometres from the front lines in Ukraine.



    Read more:
    Ukraine drone strikes on Russian airbase reveal any country is vulnerable to the same kind of attack

    Ukraine’s ability to successfully strike Belaya — an attempted strike at the even more distant Ukrainka air base failed — probably won’t have much of a military impact on the war. But along with successful attacks on other Russian airfields and the strike at the Kerch Bridge in Crimea, Operation Spider Web’s successes could play a strategic role in the conflict.

    These attacks could shift what has become increasingly negative media coverage and public perception about Ukraine’s chances in the war over the last year. In a war of attrition, which the conflict in Ukraine has become, establishing a belief in victory is a pre-condition for success.

    Explosions hit the Kerch Bridge in Russia on June 3, 2025. (The Independent)

    Increased pessimism

    Policymakers and pundits, instead of recognizing their expectations of a Ukrainian victory in 2023 were unrealistic, have often declared that the war is unwinnable for Ukraine.

    This perspective was even more prevalent following United States President Donald Trump’s resumption of power in January 2025. In the Oval Office spat Trump had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in late February, he declared Ukraine did not “have the cards” to defeat Russia.

    This turned out to be false. Ukraine’s army may possess significantly less military hardware and fewer soldiers than Russia’s, but war is often a continuation of politics. Politically, Russia faces several issues that could derail its war efforts.

    Russian vulnerabilities

    Russia’s military capabilities are important to Russian nationalists, who make up Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s core constituency. Russian military forces have advanced along nearly all fronts in Ukraine over the last year.

    These advances, however, have largely been insignificant. Furthermore, they have emphasized Russia’s military weakness, which is an ongoing affront to Russian nationalists.

    Not only have Russian military advances over the last year not changed the war in a strictly military sense, but the pace of advance has been incredibly slow. Over the last year, Russian forces have captured 5,107 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory. This territory represents less than one per cent of Ukraine’s pre-war territory.

    In exchange for what amounts to negligible gains, Russian armed forces have suffered significant casualties.

    Both Russia and Ukraine carefully guard the number of casualties their forces have suffered in the war. The British Ministry of Defence, however, estimates that Russia will have suffered more than a million casualties in the war by the end of this month. The Russian casualty rate is also accelerating, with an estimated 160,000 casualties in the first four months of 2025.

    Russia attempts to compensate for this battlefield devastation in two ways.

    First, it’s isolated Ukraine by manipulating Trump’s desire for political wins and business deals. Russia, in appearing to seek an end to the conflict while offering no concessions, has stoked tensions between Zelenskyy and Trump, where there was little love lost between the two to begin with.

    Second, Russia has increased its attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Large-scale bombing does little to help Russia on the battlefield. The attacks, in fact, put its forces at a disadvantage by redirecting munitions from military targets.

    Attacks on civilians

    The attacks on civilian infrastructure, however, are more about instilling fear in the Ukrainian population and demonstrating American impotence to a Russian audience.

    Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian cities also highlight Russia’s trump card: nuclear weapons. Russia, and specifically former Russian president Dimitry Medvedev, has repeatedly threatened nuclear war in an attempt to dissuade Ukraine’s supporters.

    By bombing Ukrainian cities, albeit with conventional munitions, Russia seeks to demonstrate its ability to deploy even more destructive weapons should the situation call for it.

    These Russian military missteps, combined with a Russian economy that is structurally unsound, means that Russia’s war effort is increasingly fragile.

    Weakening Asian alliances

    Ukraine’s attack on Belaya also signals Russian weakness to its nominal allies in Asia.

    Since the start of hostilities, Russia has relied on the tacit consent of China. This support has taken the form of China purchasing Russian crude oil to maintain the Russian economy and Chinese citizens unofficially fighting for Russia.

    Belaya has been a vital element of Russia’s deterrence strategy in Asia, which has come to rely more heavily on the Russian strategic nuclear threat. The inability of Russia to protect one of its key strategic assets from a Ukrainian drone attack, combined with the weakness of Russian conventional forces in Ukraine, erodes its ability to position itself as a key ally to China.

    In fact, some Russian authorities continue to view China as a major threat.

    At the same time, Operation Spider’s Web gives hope to the Ukrainian people. It may also cause Trump — who prefers to back winners — to ponder whether it’s Putin, not Zelenskyy, who lacks the cards to win the war.

    James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian airfields could derail Russia’s war efforts – https://theconversation.com/ukraines-drone-attacks-on-russian-airfields-could-derail-russias-war-efforts-258049

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Chagos islands: how Mauritius can turn a diplomatic triumph into real economic growth

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Dev K (Roshan) Boojihawon, Associate professor of Strategy and International Business, University of Birmingham

    The decades-long Chagos islands dispute has finally entered a new chapter. The UK officially agreed to return the sovereignty of the archipelago to Mauritius.

    The Indian Ocean islands are strategically situated near key shipping lanes and regional power hubs.

    Mauritius was granted independence from British colonial rule in 1968. But not the Chagos islands, which had been part of Mauritius but became a new colonial territory. The residents of the largest island in the archipelago, Diego Garcia, were forced off the land. This was used as a base to support US military operations.



    Read more:
    Mauritius’ next growth phase: a new plan is needed as the tax haven era fades

    Now Mauritius has regained control over the islands while leasing Diego Garcia to the UK for a 99-year period for US$136 million a year. This gives the UK (and its ally the US) access to a vital maritime corridor for global trade and power projection.

    But now that the deal has been signed, there’s a more pressing question. Can Mauritius use it as the foundation for justice and economic progress?

    As scholars of strategic economic development we often focus on Africa and Mauritius in particular. We believe the agreement marks an important geopolitical moment. It rights a colonial wrong, honours international justice and cements Mauritius’s global standing.

    It also presents an opportunity to fund inclusive development and sustainability initiatives for Mauritius. It could boost investments in education, health and infrastructure. It could also support the resettlement of displaced Chagossians, and advance marine conservation, renewable energy and climate resilience programmes in the archipelago.

    Aerial view of Diego Garcia and the Chagos archipelago.
    NASA/Wikimedia Commons

    The real challenge facing the Mauritian government is how to turn a diplomatic triumph into tangible national progress. We argue that what’s needed is a forward looking and inclusive strategy.

    The development challenge

    Reparations can offer short-term financial relief. But without visionary planning, there’s a risk of these funds being absorbed into recurrent government spending. Or used for symbolic programmes with limited structural and socio-economic impact.

    The real value lies in what Mauritius does next. Investment in strategic sectors such as the blue economy, renewable energy, digital infrastructure and sustainable tourism is the key.

    Investment should strengthen partnerships with regional neighbours, international donors, and strategic allies like the US, China and India. Mauritius must position itself as a forward-looking state with global relevance.



    Read more:
    How the US and UK worked together to recolonise the Chagos Islands and evict Chagossians

    The reparations should be treated as seed funding to invest in its own future. This means using the funds to drive bold, long-term transformation. The country needs to build a more resilient, innovative and globally competitive economy.

    Mauritius is heavily reliant on offshore services and short-term fiscal gains. It is vulnerable to slow diversification, rising youth unemployment, climate-related risks, lagging digital and technological progress, and growing global scrutiny of its financial sector.

    To remain competitive in the current volatile global context, the country must develop more broadly.

    3 steps to take

    1. Investment

    Mauritius has historically relied on external financial inflows like tourism revenue, offshore finance and foreign aid. By channelling funds into capacity-building, skills development and innovation ecosystems, the country can cultivate a self-sustaining economy. This would position it better to seize opportunities in the green economy, digital transformation and knowledge-intensive industries.

    More specifically, it needs to:

    • secure investment in green energy, AI-digital infrastructure and high-tech manufacturing

    • offer tax incentives and streamlined regulatory processes to attract foreign direct investment in these sectors

    • establish public-private partnerships to develop innovation hubs and research centres focused on emerging technologies

    • launch workforce development programmes to upskill the labour force.

    2. Economic diplomacy, alliances and regional leverage

    The government should forge stronger partnerships with the UK and the US. Key areas include defence, cybersecurity, climate and sustainability innovations and regional logistics infrastructure.

    It needs strong ties as power blocs shift and competition over strategic resources and trade routes grows.

    Joint military exercises and intelligence sharing could improve forces’ ability to help each other. Investing in advanced cyber defence capabilities, for instance, can help counter emerging digital threats, such as data breaches affecting financial services and e-governance systems.

    These steps would bolster national security and reinforce Mauritius’ position as a reliable partner.

    The resolution of the Chagos dispute provides an opportunity for Mauritius to use its geopolitical position. It could expand trade, diplomatic influence and strategic partnerships across Africa, Asia and beyond.

    Being located between Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and Southeast Asia places it along major maritime trade routes.

    Mauritius enjoys political stability, democratic governance and strong legal framework. It is well placed to help resolve regional disputes over maritime boundary conflicts, fishing rights, and freedom of navigation. These involve countries like India, Sri Lanka and Madagascar, and even China and the US.

    It can also lead in developing shared logistics and resupply hubs to support regional trade, disaster response and maritime security operations.

    3. Chagossian justice

    Mauritius must make the Chagossian community part of its next national success story. Including them in economic plans is a legal, moral and strategic necessity.

    Steps should include:

    • incorporating Chagos representatives in economic discussions and decision-making processes

    • establishing programmes for Chagossian cultural preservation and economic development

    • giving Chagossians a voice in shaping the future of their ancestral lands.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Chagos islands: how Mauritius can turn a diplomatic triumph into real economic growth – https://theconversation.com/chagos-islands-how-mauritius-can-turn-a-diplomatic-triumph-into-real-economic-growth-257774

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Even if Putin and Zelenskyy do go face-to-face, don’t expect wonders − their one meeting in 2019 ended in failure

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Anna Batta, Associate Professor of International Security Studies, Air University

    Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrive at the Elysee Palace in Paris in 2019. Ian Langsdon/Pool Photo via AP

    Delegations from Ukraine and Russia met for a second time in Istanbul in a month on June 2, 2025. Missing, again, were the country’s two leaders.

    For a fleeting moment ahead of the first meeting in mid-May 2025, there existed the faintest prospect that Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine would join, sitting down in the same room for face-to-face talks.

    But it didn’t happen; few expected it would. On that occasion, Putin refused Zelenskyy’s offer of face-to-face talks in Istanbul.

    Even though neither leader met in the Istanbul summits, they have met before.

    In Paris in 2019, the two men sat down together as part of what was known as the Normandy Format talks. As a scholar of international relations, I have interviewed people involved in the talks. Some five years on, the way the talks floundered and then failed can offer lessons about the challenges today’s would-be mediators now face.

    Initial hopes

    The Normandy Format talks started on the sidelines of events in June 2014 commemorating the 70th anniversary of the D-Day landings. The aim was to try to resolve the ongoing conflict between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatist groups in the country’s Donbas region in the east. That conflict had recently escalated, with pro-Russian separatists seizing key towns in the Donetsk and Luhansk after Russia illegally annexed the peninsula of Crimea in February 2014.

    The talks continued periodically until 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Until that point, most of the discussion was framed by two deals, the Minsk accords of 2014 and 2015, which set out the terms for a ceasefire between Kyiv and the Moscow-armed rebel groups and the conditions for elections in Donetsk and Luhansk.

    By the time of the sixth meeting in December 2019, the only time Zelenkyy and Putin have met in person, some still hoped that the Minsk accords could form a framework for peace.

    Under discussion

    Zelenskyy was only a few months into his presidency. He arrived in Paris with fresh energy and a desire to find peace.

    His electoral campaign had centered on the promise of putting an end to the unrest in Donbas, which had been rumbling on for years. The increasing role of Russia in the conflict, through supporting rebels financially and with volunteer Russian soldiers, had complicated and escalated fighting, and many Ukrainians were weary of the impact of internally displaced people that it caused.

    By all accounts, Zelenskyy went into Paris believing that he could make a deal with Putin.

    “I want to return with concrete results,” Zelenskyy said just days before meeting Putin. By then, the Ukrainian president’s only contact with Putin had been over the phone. “I want to see the person and I want to bring from Normandy understanding and feeling that everybody really wants gradually to finish this tragic war,” Zelenskyy said, adding, “I can feel it for sure only at the table.”

    One of Putin’s main concerns going into the talks was the lifting of Western sanctions imposed in response to the annexation of Crimea.

    But the Russian president also wanted to keep Russia’s smaller neighbor under its influence. Ukraine gained independence after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. But in the early years of the new century, Russia began to exert increasing influence over the politics of its neighbor. This ended in 2014, when a popular revolution ousted pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and ushered in a pro-Western government.

    More than anything, Russia wanted to arrest this shift and keep Ukraine out of the European Union and NATO.

    Those desires – Ukraine’s to end the war in Donbas, and Russia’s to curb the West’s involvement in Ukraine – formed the parameters for the Normandy talks.

    And for some time, there appeared to be momentum to find compromise. French President Emmanuel Macron said that the 2019 Paris talks had broken years of stalemate and relaunched the peace process. Putin’s assessment was that the peace process was “developing in the right direction.” Zelenskyy’s view was a little less enthusisastic: “Let’s say for now it’s a draw.”

    Talking past each other

    Yet the Putin-Zelenskyy meeting in 2019 ultimately ended in failure. In retrospect, both sides were talking past each other and could not reach agreement on the sequencing of key parts of the peace plan.

    Zelenskyy wanted the security provisions of the Minsk accords, including a lasting ceasefire and the securing of Ukraine’s border with Russia, in place before proceeding with regional elections on devolving autonomy to the regions. Putin was adamant that the elections come first.

    The success of the Normandy talks were also hindered by Putin’s refusal to acknowledge that Russia was a party to the conflict. Rather, he framed the Donbas conflict as a civil war between the Ukrainian government and the rebels. Russia’s role was simply to push the rebels to the negotiating table in this take – a view that was greeted with skepticism by Ukraine and the West.

    As a result, the Normandy talks stalled. And then in February 2022, Russian launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

    Way forward today?

    The nascent negotiations between Ukraine and Russia that began in Istanbul in May 2025 represent the first real attempt to bring high-level delegations of both sides together since 2019.

    Many of the same challenges remain. The talks still revolve around the issues of security, the status of Donetsk and Luhansk, and prisoner exchanges – that last point being the only one in which common ground appears to be found, both in 2019 and now.

    But there are major differences – not least, three years of actual direct war. Russia can no longer deny that it is a party of the conflict, even if Moscow frames the war as a special military operation to “denazify” and demilitarize Ukraine.

    And three years of war have changed how the questions of Crimea and the Donbas are framed.

    In the Normandy talks, there was no talk of recognizing Russian control over any Ukrainian territory. But recent U.S. efforts to negotiate peace have included a “de-jure” U.S. recognition of Russian control in Crimea, plus “de-facto recognition” of Russia’s occupation of nearly all of Luhansk oblast and the occupied portions of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

    Another major difference between the negotiation process then and now is who is mediating.

    The Normandy negotiations were led by European leaders – German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Macron of France. Throughout the whole Normandy talks process, only Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia were involved as active participants.

    Today, it is the United States taking the lead.

    And this suits Putin. A constant issue for Putin of the Normandy talks was that Germany and France were never neutral mediators.

    In President Donald Trump, Putin has found a U.S. leader who, at least at first, appeared eager to take on the mantle from Europe.

    But like the Europeans involved in the Normandy talks, Trump too is encountering similar barriers to any meaningful progress.

    Members of Ukrainian and Russian delegations attend peace talks on June 2, 2025, in Istanbul.
    Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs via Getty Images

    The Istanbul negotiations on May 16, 2025, were less productive than many people hoped. A proposed 30-day ceasefire agreement didn’t come to fruition; instead the parties agreed on a prisoner-exchange deal. Follow-up talks on June 2 ended after barely an hour, according to Turkish officials. Again, one point agreed on was a prisoner swap.

    The Paris peace talks, too, led to a prisoner exchange – but little more. It appears that getting the leaders of Ukraine and Russia to agree on anything more ambitious is as elusive now as it was when Putin and Zelenskyy met in 2019.

    The views expressed in this article represent the personal views of the author and are not necessarily the views of the Department of Defense or of the Department of the Air Force.

    – ref. Even if Putin and Zelenskyy do go face-to-face, don’t expect wonders − their one meeting in 2019 ended in failure – https://theconversation.com/even-if-putin-and-zelenskyy-do-go-face-to-face-dont-expect-wonders-their-one-meeting-in-2019-ended-in-failure-257093

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘That was rude’: why the new Broadway musical Death Becomes Her was ripe for TikTok memes

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Gregory Camp, Senior Lecturer, School of Music, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    A few snippets of musicalised dialogue from the cast album of the new Broadway musical Death Becomes Her – with music and lyrics by Julia Mattison and Noel Carey, and a book by Marco Pennette – have recently become trending sonic memes on TikTok.

    In all sorts of situations, users are lip synching to audio clips of Broadway star Jennifer Simard, in the character of Helen Sharp (played by Goldie Hawn in the 1992 cult film on which the musical is based), saying things like “That was rude. That was pretty fuckin’ rude” and “She stole my life. She made me cuckoo. She’s why I spent four years locked in that health spa.”

    Musical theatre fans love a good meme (scholar Trevor Boffone has written a whole book about the phenomenon) and Death Becomes Her is primed to create a lot of them: a show featuring two divas (played by Simard and Megan Hilty as Madeleine Ashton, Meryl Streep’s role in the movie) based on a cult film about divas begs to be shaped and reshaped by fan culture.

    Helen and Madeleine are longtime rivals who both take a magic potion that makes them immortal. This leads them to find increasingly extravagant ways to try and do away with each other, with the help of Helen’s put-upon husband Ernest (Christopher Sieber), a plastic surgeon who reluctantly falls into the role of restoring their bodies after each “accident”.

    Some of Hilty’s clips have also been TikTok-ified (notably Tell Me, Earnest) but Simard is winning the numbers game. Her “That was rude” clip alone has 321,000 videos and counting.

    Finding the patter

    There seem to be two main reasons for the attraction of these clips. First is Simard’s delivery of the words. Simard is a longstanding Broadway star and an expert at musical comedy timing.

    Second is the rhythmic quality of the dialogue. Not fully sung, these bits are spoken in mostly strict rhythm over orchestral accompaniment. That they have become such earworms demonstrates it is not only melody that burrows into the brain, but also rhythmic contour.

    There is a long history of this style of speak-singing in musical theatre, notably popularised in the late 1950s by Robert Preston in The Music Man and Rex Harrison in My Fair Lady.

    Neither of those actors was a strong singer, but both had excellent timing and were able to deliver spoken lines above music with a strong sense of musicality.

    Simard is an excellent singer with a very wide range, but the comic role of Helen – ever the underdog to her rival famous actress Madeleine – lends itself to this style of heightened speech.

    Most effective rhythmically, and the most popular excerpt, is the “That was rude” meme, where Simard begins slowly without accompaniment; the bass comes in on “rude” and sets a groove for the rest of the short excerpt.

    This one has been used in every possible situation, from responses to nasty notes left on people’s cars to complaints about incorrect drink orders. Some of the TikTokers refer to Simard in on-screen text, but this one seems to have become popular outside any specific reference to the show, in a truly viral moment.

    Ripe for the lip-sync

    The lengthiest of the trending excerpts is the one that begins with “We talked about killing her before”, which sets off a monologue about Helen’s plan to do away with Madeline once and for all.

    This is a tour de force for Simard’s comic timing, as it begins in free rhythm and then gradually takes on a more consistent beat. TikTokers are tending to use this one primarily as a demonstration of their lip-syncing skills, as opposed to the other shorter clips that are applied in different ironic situations.

    This trend also shows the continuing importance of the cast album in musical theatre culture. The majority of TikTokers probably have not seen the show, currently only playing on Broadway with high ticket prices. Yet the cast album (easily available on all the main streaming sites) gives access.

    The fact these clips come from a cast album also more easily allows fans to create their own visuals around it. Unless they actually saw the show they only have production photographs and short publicity clips (and the occasional shaky bootleg or slime tutorial) to go on in terms of what it looks like.

    Audio from a source like the soundtrack of the Wicked movie has not led to so many lip-sync videos because the visual track is so readily accessible; as a film, Wicked’s visuals define its audio while a cast album can more easily work the other way round.

    Beyond Broadway

    I saw Death Becomes Her on Broadway in January and enjoyed it. It’s a fun show full of special effects and comic bits. The score is serviceable (it’s not Sondheim), but it is catchy – very important for its use in these TikTok trends – and well performed by Simard and the rest of the cast.

    This whole phenomenon demonstrates that the current cultural sphere of “Broadway” extends well beyond the street itself. This has been the case at least since the rise of the cast album in the 1950s (My Fair Lady’s was the best-selling LP of 1956), but now the reach is intensified by social media spaces like TikTok; you don’t have to have actually seen Death Becomes Her to experience it.

    Gregory Camp does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘That was rude’: why the new Broadway musical Death Becomes Her was ripe for TikTok memes – https://theconversation.com/that-was-rude-why-the-new-broadway-musical-death-becomes-her-was-ripe-for-tiktok-memes-257550

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: In the trade wars, there are lessons for the US from Brexit. Australia and our trading partners should take note

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Draper, Professor, and Executive Director: Institute for International Trade, and Director of the Jean Monnet Centre of Trade and Environment, University of Adelaide

    General_4530/Getty

    While the Trump administration’s on-again, off-again trade wars wreak havoc on the business plans of the world’s exporters, the risks to the global economy continue to grow.

    The self-inflicted scale of disruption to global trade patterns is enormous. Yet there are echoes with the United Kingdom’s experience of Brexit, both for the United States economy now and its trading partners worried about their trading futures.

    Fortunately, while it is painful, Trump’s push toward economic isolationism brings opportunities for other trading nations to strengthen their ties.

    This is especially the case in our Indo-Pacific region, where Australia is looking to new trade partners and deepening existing ties.

    The economic consequences of Brexit

    The UK economy is relatively diminished since 2016, when David Cameron, as Prime Minister, called the Brexit referendum on whether to leave the European Union.

    A study of UK businesses found three key impacts in the three years before formal Brexit took place in 2020:

    1. the UK’s decision to leave the European Union generated major, sustained, uncertainty for the business community. Since business invests and trades, that was highly consequential
    2. anticipation of Brexit gradually reduced investment by about 11% between 2016 and 2019
    3. Brexit reduced UK productivity by between 2% and 5%.

    A new report establishes that since 2020, when formal Brexit took place, the UK is experiencing its worst trade slump in a generation. This decline contrasts with growing trade in other industrial nations, indicating the COVID pandemic was not to blame.

    Harsh lessons in bargaining power

    The EU did not change to suit the UK. Rather, because of the EU’s influential role in regulation known as the “Brussels effect”, the UK must realign with EU standards to win back market access.

    For decades, the UK had ceded its trade bargaining capacity to Brussels. It was always on the back foot as its inexperienced negotiators locked horns with seasoned EU trade diplomats.

    The British also learned that outside the EU, their relative trade bargaining power, as well as foreign policy prestige, was much diminished. Many countries focused on dealing with the EU without the UK’s involvement.

    Overall, it is difficult to escape the conclusion that Brexit hastened the UK’s inexorable transformation from “Great” to “Little” Britain.

    MAGA echoes

    The Brexiteers were motivated by free trade and the belief EU trade policies prevented the UK from more liberalisation.

    Trump’s decision to disentangle the US from world trade is motivated by protectionist desires, in the mistaken belief blocking imports will “Make America Great Again”.

    Like the Brexiteers, Trump will find business confidence will diminish and the US economy will be worse off. Data this week showed US manufacturing contracted for the third straight month in May amid tariff-induced supply chain delays.

    Just like the UK, US economic decline relative to its trading partners will accelerate.

    Obviously, a huge difference between British folly and US hubris is that the US has market and geopolitical power in most of its bilateral negotiations, whereas the UK did not.

    Yet, whereas the Trump administration assumes the US is the more powerful party in all reciprocal tariff negotiations, it is now learning that some major trading powers (China, the EU, India), and even some middle powers (Canada, Mexico, Australia), will not simply roll over when faced with overt coercion.

    Moreover, as Great Britain learned to its cost, the US will find its soft power rapidly diminishing, and foreign policy objectives more difficult to attain. US allies, while in some cases in need of weaning themselves from over-dependence on the US military umbrella, are now actively hedging their security bets.

    What should trading partners do?

    There is an opening for Australia to seize the moment with new trade partnerships, and by deepening existing relationships.

    We have a golden opportunity in our chairmanship of the 12-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership group this year.

    This high-standards, deeply liberalising, trade agreement is a gold standard template to anchor our global trading partnerships. Members include Canada, Japan, Mexico, Singapore and the UK and representatives will be meeting in Brisbane next week.

    Specifically, Australia, our trans-Pacific partners and the EU need to agree to work collaboratively to converge on modern trade rules and support for free trade. Then take those accords into the World Trade Organization to strengthen and revitalise the institution, with or without the US.

    In addition, we need to quickly conclude both the stalled bilateral free-trade agreement with the EU, and the second phase of our trade agreement with India. This would cement two huge new markets of sufficient existing (EU) and potential (India) scale to rival both the US and Chinese markets.

    Finally, we need to double down on our existing trade partnerships with Southeast Asian countries, anchoring on the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). This will bolster ASEAN-centrality in regional trade arrangements and balance both US withdrawal and China’s advance into the region.

    While this will not be easy, the effort has to be made and needs to start now.

    Peter Draper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. In the trade wars, there are lessons for the US from Brexit. Australia and our trading partners should take note – https://theconversation.com/in-the-trade-wars-there-are-lessons-for-the-us-from-brexit-australia-and-our-trading-partners-should-take-note-257555

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: With a government review underway, we have to ask why children bully other kids

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marilyn Campbell, Professor, School of Early Childhood & Inclusive Education, Queensland University of Technology

    Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock

    The federal government has launched a “rapid review” to look at what works to prevent bullying in schools.

    Led by mental health experts, the review will underpin a new national standard to respond to bullying. This follows the death of a young Sydney school student last year.

    It also comes as the Queensland government rolls out a A$33 million anti-bullying plan in the state’s schools.

    As schools, parents and governments look at what more can be done to prevent bullying, we have to ask why children bully other kids.

    If we understand the motives, we can help these children change their behaviour – and achieve their goals or have their needs met in other ways.



    Read more:
    What can you do if your child is being bullied?

    What lies behind bullying?

    Research tells us children broadly bully for social reasons. For example, a 2022 study showed children can bully to gain social status among peers – to be seen as powerful, tough or cool. Or they can bully to maintain status as part of an in-group. Perhaps another child is seen as a “threat” to that status.

    Children can also bully for revenge for perceived insults. Or for entertainment – making a joke at another student’s expense.

    Research shows motivations can also differ depending on the type of bullying. For example, face-to-face bullying seems to involve more children who bully for social dominance, while those who cyberbully do it more for entertainment and “fun”.

    In a 2014 study, Marilyn Campbell and colleagues asked different groups about their perceptions of why young people engaged in cyber-bullying. Parents said children did it out of revenge for being bullied themselves, teachers said students did it for fun, and students thought others cyber-bullied because of peer pressure.

    This highlights how complex understanding children’s motives can be.



    Read more:
    Why do kids bully? And what can parents do about it?

    Children may not bully for long

    We should be careful about thinking of all students who bully as long-term “bullies”.

    Most children who bully try the behaviour and stop when it does not get them what they want, just as many children who are victimised are not bullied for long.

    Though of course, even being bullied for a short time can still be damaging and traumatic for the student on the receiving end.

    This could suggest there is a developmental phase in bullying as most bullying occurs between children in Year 6 through to Year 10.

    However, there are those students who persistently bully others and these are the students whose behaviour remains a problem despite interventions and prevention approaches.

    Who is more likely to bully?

    There are certain personality types who are more likely to persistently bully others. These include:

    But research is mixed on the question of self-esteem. Some researchers say children who bully have high self-esteem, yet others have found they have low self-esteem.

    There are many reasons why a child might develop the personality traits that would lead them to bully.

    Physical abuse in childhood can play a role. There is an association between a child being exposed to domestic violence at home and then bullying their peers.

    Parenting can also be a factor. For example, being overvalued but not well disciplined by parents can lead to higher traits of narcissism and a greater likelihood a child will bully.

    What can we do?

    Children who persistently bully may require targeted and nuanced approaches. Current approaches emphasise restoring positive relationships, rather than punishments or sanctions.

    One approach is individual motivational interviewing. Here a school counsellor shows young people they can achieve their goals by other means. This encourages perpetrators to see there are more benefits in not bullying than in bullying. For example, “I want to be popular. But if I bully, I also make other kids scared of me and not want to hang around me.”

    More broadly, schools can also teach explicit programs on social and emotional learning.



    Read more:
    Schools today also teach social and emotional skills. Why is this important? And what’s involved?

    These programs focus on emotional intelligence and emotional literacy, enabling students to recognise and manage their emotions, understand the perspectives of others and have positive relationships with peers.

    Schools which respect the diversity of students, are also better placed to address bullying. If all students have opportunities to participate in learning, it will develop their sense of belonging to their school community. This not only decreases rates of bullying but supports students who have been victimised.

    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14 or Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800.

    Marilyn Campbell receives funding from the Australian Research Council and other government grants. .

    Shannon O’Brien does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. With a government review underway, we have to ask why children bully other kids – https://theconversation.com/with-a-government-review-underway-we-have-to-ask-why-children-bully-other-kids-257643

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: People with severe mental illness are waiting for days in hospital EDs. Here’s how we can do better

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sebastian Rosenberg, Associate Professor, Health Research Institute, University of Canberra, and Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney

    Matthew Ashmore/Shutterstock

    On ABC’s 4 Corners this week, psychiatrists and nurses have warned New South Wales’ mental health system is in crisis. They report some patients with severe mental distress are waiting two to three days in emergency departments for care.

    The program highlighted chronic failures in NSW’s mental health system, but the shortfalls are being felt across the nation.

    Just over 7% of the nation’s health budget is spent on mental health. But together with alcohol and drug issues, mental health accounts for around 15% of the nation’s burden of disease.

    Problems in mental health go beyond under-funding: it’s also about how the resources we do have are spent.

    So how did we get here? And what can we do to fix it?

    It wasn’t supposed to be like this

    Back in the 1980s, psychiatric deinstitutionalisation promised to replace treatment provided in the old psychiatric institutions with mental health services and care in the community. Too often, these institutions failed to promote recovery, and delivered improper care and even abuse.

    Many of these institutions were indeed closed. But the shift in mental health care over the past 40 years has not been from asylums to the community, but rather to the mental health wards of Australia’s general public hospitals and the emergency departments (EDs) which operate in them.

    Hospitals are expensive and often traumatic places to provide mental health care. We know this from frequent statutory inquiries and reports.

    Deinstitutionalisation aimed to treat patients in the community rather than hospital.
    Shutterstock

    For presentations to EDs, all the indicators are heading in the wrong direction. More people are seeking care for their mental health in EDs, they are arriving sicker (according to their triage category) and they wait longer for care.

    Hospitals account for more than 80% of total state and territory spending on mental health. In 2022–23, A$6.5 billion of the states and territories’ total spend of $8bn on mental health was directed towards hospital-based care. Just $1bn was provided outside hospitals.

    Evidence indicates community-based care can reduce reliance on EDs for mental health care.

    Yet community mental health services now often comprise little more than a phone call to check if a client is taking their medication. Of the 9.4 million community mental health service contacts in 2022–3, 4 million lasted less than 15 minutes.

    Mental health clinical staff spend just 20% of their time with consumers.

    What are the solutions?

    The solutions are already at hand, but haven’t been pursued or scaled up. These include:

    • multidisciplinary models such as assertive community treatments, which provide mixed specialist clinical and psychosocial support in the community, in people’s homes

    • service models the Australian College of Emergency Medicine have proposed as alternatives to hospital ED care. These include safe havens, mental health nurse liaison services and dedicated homelessness teams. These services can provide the care required to divert patients away from hectic emergency departments, in calmer, more therapeutic spaces

    • NSW programs such as the Housing and Accommodation Support Initiative provide community based, clinical and psychosocial support to people with severe mental health needs. This program reduced admissions due to mental health by 74% over two years

    • Adelaide’s Urgent Mental Health Care Centre, which operates as an alternative to EDs and is open 24 hours a day, seven days a week. This clinic was designed in collaboration with the community, including people with a lived experience of a mental health crisis, and offers a welcoming, safe environment

    • Step-Up Step-Down services, which can effectively meet the needs of some of “the missing middle”. These are people whose mental health needs are too complex for primary care but not assessed as a big enough risk to themselves or others to “qualify” for hospital admission.

    Community-based care for mental illness and social support can reduce reliance on EDs.
    Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock

    Funding support for psychosocial services remains tiny. It accounts for about 6% of total spending on mental health care by states and territories.

    As a result, almost half a million Australians with either severe or moderate mental health needs are currently unable to access necessary psychosocial care. This impacts their recovery.

    It also leaves clinical services without a viable “psychosocial partner”. So people needing mental health care might be able to get a prescription, but are much less likely to receive assistance with unstable housing, employment support or help getting back to school.

    Working together

    There is already concern to address identified workforce shortages and psychiatrists’ pay disputes.

    The next round of mental health planning must also discuss and clarify the complementary roles in mental health care, as people with more complex mental health needs typically benefit from multidisciplinary, team-based care. This includes psychiatrists, psychologists, allied health professionals, nurses, peer workers, social service providers, GPs, justice, school and housing services and others such as drug and alcohol services. Who is best placed to plan and coordinate this care?

    Reducing our over-reliance on hospital-based mental health care and EDs needs agreement by all Australian governments to explicitly prioritise the principles of early intervention, community-based mental health care and hospital avoidance in mental health.

    These steps, together with more personalised approaches to treatment and better accountability, will help us achieve systemic quality improvement in mental health care.



    Read more:
    Police aren’t properly trained for mental health crises – but they’re often the first responders. Here’s what works better

    Sebastian Rosenberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. People with severe mental illness are waiting for days in hospital EDs. Here’s how we can do better – https://theconversation.com/people-with-severe-mental-illness-are-waiting-for-days-in-hospital-eds-heres-how-we-can-do-better-257971

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Senior public servants think GenAI will boost productivity – but are worried about the risks

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Helen Dickinson, Professor, Public Service Research, UNSW Sydney

    Many bold claims have been made about Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) and its capacity to improve productivity and generate workplace efficiencies.

    A recent Microsoft survey found 24% of private sector leaders have already deployed GenAI across their organisations. Many are considering laying off staff and replacing them with GenAI systems.

    But how much appetite does the public sector have for using artificial intelligence, which doesn’t come without risks?

    Our new research explores attitudes in Australian bureaucracy to using GenAI in policy work. Given governments are expected to work in ethical, transparent and responsible ways, we wondered if public servants are more wary of adopting this technology.

    No single view

    We asked senior bureaucrats from 22 state, territory and federal government agencies about their views on GenAI. We focused on what this might mean for the future of decision-making, policy development and public services.

    They expressed a range of views on the transformative potential of GenAI. Some were enthusiasts who saw the potential to conduct government work faster and more reliably.

    One interviewee remarked:

    Why improve the candle when you could use a light bulb?

    Others were less enthusiastic, arguing the technology is overhyped. Critically, they see GenAI as fundamentally inappropriate for use in public policy work and inherently risky on several fronts. These include:

    • the tendency for AI to hallucinate, where tools see patterns in data that do not exist in reality, making outputs inaccurate or wrong

    • the risk of biases in existing datasets, such as the underrepresentation of some groups or people

    • the sensitive nature of government data that might be compromised by AI programs.

    Regardless of their specific views on GenAI, public servants consistently told us two things.

    First, they do not believe artificial intelligence will replace workers. Instead, they are confident these tools will augment their work by freeing them from routine and repetitive tasks. This would allow them to focus on high-value tasks, such as engaging with the public.

    Second, the current use of GenAI is largely focused on administration tasks that do not draw on sensitive client data or interact directly with the public.

    Robodebt hangover

    One of the consequences of the Robodebt scheme is the pace and scale of the adoption of automated tools.

    Many interviewees explained public sector organisations are still very cautious about using GenAI technology as a result of the scandal.

    One interviewee told us the majority of the problems with Robodebt were at a human level, which highlights the importance of individuals

    taking their duties, both professionally and ethically, seriously, and interrogating what they get out of AI systems.

    Close attention is also being given to the influence of human decision-making in the development of machines that use GenAI.

    Incremental change

    Our research suggests public service agencies are largely taking a careful and measured approach to applying GenAI in policy work. Senior public servants perceive the public is wary of how governments use these tools. Rebuilding credibility in relation to technology oversight and implementation is imperative.

    Public servants described most of their use of GenAI as purposeful experiments. Clear outcomes are set for the use of these tools and evaluation processes are in place to monitor whether they achieve them.

    This is seen as important because public sector organisations need to know whether these tools do what they promise – deliver value for money and help guard against any unforeseen risks.

    Unauthorised use

    Some recent scandals show how GenAI tools can be risky when misused. In response, some public service agencies have banned freely available GenAI models such as ChatGPT and only allow access to officially authorised programs such as Copilot.

    But this does not mean public servants are not using the technology.

    Several interviewees told us they were aware of colleagues using unauthorised programs to enhance their productivity. Personal devices are often engaged to bypass system restrictions. Concerns were expressed public servants might not be receiving guidance on how to use these tools carefully and safely.

    New reality

    GenAI technology is being asked to perform tasks that require human intelligence and to do these tasks more quickly. However, our findings point to a strong need to align these tools with Australian government values that frame expectations for responsible use of GenAI.

    The public service faces a dilemma. Is this an opportunity for innovation in government policy work by tapping into the potential transformative impact of GenAI programs, as promised in other sectors? Or, is a more cautious approach needed to generate trust, both in the technology, and in public sector organisations to use them appropriately?

    Elon Musk’s recent work in the Trump administration may suggest the latter. The experience highlighted the significant consequences of tech industry influence and the use of AI tools under the remit of maximising government efficiency.

    The Australian public has high expectations of government to solve problems such as the housing crisis and cost-of-living pressures. A combination of machine and human intelligence may offer the power needed to tackle these complex economic and social issues. However, not all agencies have yet decided to flip the switch.

    Our research highlights the mix of views among senior public servants towards GenAI. Whether it transforms the public service or simply speeds up business as usual will depend not on the technology itself but on how boldly, carefully, and transparently governments choose to use it.

    Helen Dickinson receives funding from Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, Medical Research Future Fund and Australian Government.

    Dr Jade Hart receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

    Kathryn Henne receives funding from the Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council and Google Academic Research Awards program.

    Vanessa McDermott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Senior public servants think GenAI will boost productivity – but are worried about the risks – https://theconversation.com/senior-public-servants-think-genai-will-boost-productivity-but-are-worried-about-the-risks-256566

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A two-state solution is gaining momentum again. Does it have a chance of success?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Thomas, Lecturer in Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    As Israel’s devastating war in Gaza has ground on, the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was thought to be “dead”. Now, it is showing signs of life again.

    French President Emmanuel Macron is reportedly pressing other European nations to jointly recognise a Palestinian state at a UN conference in mid-June, focused on achieving a two-state solution. Macron called such recognition a “political necessity”.

    Countries outside Europe are feeling the pressure, too. Australia has reaffirmed its view that recognition of Palestine should be a “way of building momentum towards a two-state solution”.

    During Macron’s visit to Indonesia in late May, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto made a surprising pledge to recognise Israel if it allowed for a Palestinian state.

    Indonesia is one of about 28 nations that don’t currently recognise Israel. France, Australia, the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan and South Korea are among the approximately 46 nations that don’t recognise a Palestinian state.

    The UN conference on June 17–20, co-sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia, wants to go “beyond reaffirming principles” and “achieve concrete results” towards a two-state solution.

    Most countries, including the US, have supported the two-state solution in principle for decades. However, the political will from all parties has faded in recent years.

    So, why is the policy gaining traction again now? And does it have a greater chance of success?

    What is the two-state solution?

    Put simply, the two-state solution is a proposed peace plan that would create a sovereign Palestinian state alongside the Israeli state. There have been several failed attempts to enact the policy over recent decades, the most famous of which was the Oslo Accords in the early 1990s.

    In recent years, the two-state solution was looking less likely by the day.

    The Trump administration’s decision in 2017 to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and move the US embassy there signalled the US was moving away from its role as mediator. Then, several Arab states agreed to normalise relations with Israel in the the Abraham Accords, without Israeli promises to move towards a two-state solution.

    The Hamas attacks on Israel – and subsequent Israeli war on Gaza – have had a somewhat contradictory effect on the overarching debate.

    On the one hand, the brutality of Hamas’ actions substantially set back the legitimacy of the Palestinian self-determination movement in some quarters on the world stage.

    On the other, it’s also become clear the status quo – the continued Israeli occupation of Gaza and the West Bank following the end of a brutal war – is not tenable for either Israeli security or Palestinian human rights.

    And the breakdown of the most recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, the return of heavy Israeli ground operations in May and reports of mass Palestinian starvation have only served to further isolate the Israeli government in the eyes of its peers.

    Once-steadfast supporters of Israel’s actions have become increasingly frustrated by a lack of clear strategic goals in Gaza. And many now seem prepared to ignore Israeli wishes and pursue Palestinian recognition.

    For these governments, the hope is recognition of a Palestinian state would rebuild political will – both globally and in the Middle East – towards a two-state solution.

    Huge obstacles remain

    But how likely is this in reality? There is certainly more political will than there was before, but also several important roadblocks.

    First and foremost is the war in Gaza. It’s obvious this will need to end, with both sides agreeing to an enduring ceasefire.

    Beyond that, the political authority in both Gaza and Israel remains an issue.

    The countries now considering Palestinian recognition, such France and Australia, have expressly said Hamas cannot play any role in governing a future Palestinian state.

    Though anti-Hamas sentiment is becoming more vocal among residents in Gaza, Hamas has been violently cracking down on this dissent and is attempting to consolidate its power.

    However, polling shows the popularity of Fatah – the party leading the Palestinian National Authority – is even lower than Hamas at an average of 21%. Less than half of Gazans support the enclave returning to Palestinian Authority control. This means a future Palestinian state would likely require new leadership.

    There is almost no political will in Israel for a two-state solution, either. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not been shy about his opposition to a Palestinian state. His cabinet members have mostly been on the same page.

    This has also been reflected in policy action. In early May, the Israeli Security Cabinet approved a plan for Israel to indefinitely occupy parts of Gaza. The government also just approved its largest expansion of settlements in the West Bank in decades.

    These settlements remain a major problem for a two-state solution. The total population of Israeli settlers is more than 700,000 in both East Jerusalem and the West Bank. And it’s been increasing at a faster rate since the election of the right-wing, pro-settler Netanyahu government in 2022.

    Settlement is enshrined in Israeli Basic Law, with the state defining it as “national value” and actively encouraging its “establishment and consolidation”.

    The more settlement that occurs, the more complicated the boundaries of a future Palestinian state become.

    Then there’s the problem of public support. Recent polling shows neither Israelis nor Palestinians view the two-state solution favourably. Just 40% of Palestinians support it, while only 26% of Israelis believe a Palestinian state can “coexist peacefully” alongside Israel.

    However, none of these challenges makes the policy impossible. The unpopularity of the two-state solution locally is more a reflection of previous failures than it is of future negotiations.

    A power-sharing agreement in Northern Ireland was similarly unpopular in the 1990s, but peace was achieved through bold political leadership involving the US and European Union.

    In other words, we won’t know what’s possible until negotiations begin. Red lines will need to be drawn and compromises made.

    It’s not clear what effect growing external pressure will have, but the international community does appear to be reaching a political tipping point on the two-state solution. Momentum could start building again.

    Andrew Thomas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A two-state solution is gaining momentum again. Does it have a chance of success? – https://theconversation.com/a-two-state-solution-is-gaining-momentum-again-does-it-have-a-chance-of-success-257890

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Curious Kids: can spiders swim?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leanda Denise Mason, Vice Chancellor Research Fellow in Conservation Ecology, Edith Cowan University

    A great raft spider (_Dolomedes plantarius_). Salparadis/Shutterstock

    Can spiders swim?

    Waubra Preschool students, Victoria, Australia

    What a great question!

    Most spiders don’t swim by choice. But they sure can survive in water when they need to. From floating like a boat, to paddling like a rower, to carrying their own scuba bubbles, spiders have developed brilliant ways to deal with water.

    Let’s dive into the science in some more detail, and look at how spiders handle getting their paws wet, with examples from our local bush.

    Spiders can run across water

    Water has surface tension – this acts like a kind of invisible skin that can hold up small, light objects.

    Many spiders are tiny and have water-repellent hairs on their legs, so they can stand or run on water without sinking.

    For example, fishing spiders wait at the water’s edge and scuttle across the surface to grab insects, tadpoles or even small fish.

    If prey escapes underwater, this spider can even hide beneath the water’s surface briefly, then come back up.

    Spiders can hold their breath underwater for days

    Spiders don’t have gills, so they can’t get oxygen from water like fish do. But they have evolved clever strategies for staying alive if they stay in the water for a long time.

    For example, the Australian Sydney funnel-web spider often falls into backyard swimming pools. People might see one and think it drowned, but it can actually survive underwater for hours by holding its breath much longer than a human could.

    That’s because it breathes much more slowly than we do. Like many spiders, it has both tracheae (tiny air tubes) and book lungs (they look like a book with many pages) for breathing. Some spiders can close these and become watertight, to hold their breath for a long time.

    Some trapdoor spiders have been recorded only taking a breath every six minutes.

    Do not burst their bubble

    Some spiders take the air with them like a scuba diver.

    On the Great Barrier Reef coast, a little intertidal spider called Desis bobmarleyi actually lives part of its life under seawater. At high tide, it hides in a silk-lined air pocket in coral or shells. It uses the long hairs on its legs and body to trap a bubble around itself so it can breathe underwater between the tides. When the tide goes out, this spider comes out to hunt on the wet reef.

    And in other parts of the world, there’s the famous diving bell spider, the only spider that spends its whole life entirely underwater.

    It weaves an underwater silk web that it fills with air – like an underwater house. This spider can stay underwater for more than a day at a time by letting its air-bubble vessel actively pull oxygen from the water.

    Can you spot Desis bobmarleyi among the corals?
    coenobita/iNaturalist, CC BY

    Flood proofing, trapdoor spider style

    Some spiders sit tight and make their homes flood-proof. Remember those trapdoor spiders we mentioned? Trapdoor spiders live snug in burrows underground with a silken lid on top (like a little trapdoor).

    In areas that get sudden heavy rains, a trapdoor spider might build its burrow with a raised entrance – a bit like a chimney – so water flows around or over it rather than straight in.

    Some Australian trapdoor spiders in the outback clay pans have been found to build thick muddy silk doors that fit perfectly like a bath plug into the surrounding soil. The water just goes straight over the top.

    Even if water does get in, some trapdoor spiders can seal their bodies and essentially hold their breath. They don’t swim in their flooded burrows, but they can wait out a flood without drowning.

    Some trapdoor spiders have been recorded only taking a breath every six minutes.
    Dr Leanda Mason

    What to do with a soggy spider

    If you ever find a spider struggling in water – say in a swimming pool or even in a bucket – you can help as long as you’re careful.

    First, always ask an adult before trying to assist a spider. Nobody has died in Australia in 60 years from spider venom. But some (such as the Sydney funnel-web) can still be fatal, so you must be sure not to touch or provoke it.

    A good way to save a spider in a pool is to use a net or a scoop with a long handle. Gently lift the spider out and put it on the ground away from the water. The spider might look dead at first, but don’t be surprised if it “comes back to life” as it dries out – just like trapdoor spiders do.

    And remember: never poke a spider with your bare hands, even if it seems lifeless. Spiders such as funnel-webs can still bite underwater or right after being rescued, and they will defend themselves if they feel threatened. So, play it safe and use tools or ask an adult or a spider expert to help.

    If anyone is bitten, get an adult to seek medical attention immediately.

    Next time you’re exploring nature (or even looking into the toilet), keep an eye out for our eight-legged friends and how they interact with water. You might spot a little spider boat captain or an air-bubble diver right in your backyard.

    Leanda Denise Mason does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Curious Kids: can spiders swim? – https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-can-spiders-swim-257832

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Are influencers villains, victims or champions of change? The reality is more complex

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Aya Aboelenien, Associate Professor of Marketing, HEC Montréal

    As the influencer ecosystem expands and its culture evolves, there is increasing pressure for the industry to prioritize ethics over profit. (Shutterstock)

    Social media influencers have become cultural powerhouses, setting trends, shaping lifestyles and even swaying political views. As their influence grows, so do ethical debates about them: are they villains exploiting their audiences, victims of an unregulated industry or champions driving positive change?

    In our chapter in the recently released book, Influencer Marketing, we synthesized existing literature to explore the ethical minefield of influencer culture and attention economy. We scrutinized the responsibilities of influencers, brands, platforms and consumers, and the broader impact of influencers on society at large.

    Influencers as villains

    Influencers are often cast as villains in the online world. They are frequently criticized for inauthentic behaviour, such as by failing to disclose partnership agreements, perpetuating unrealistic beauty or lifestyle standards or by lying to their audiences outright.

    Despite regulations, many influencers hide their paid partnerships.
    In 2023, for instance, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission found that 81 per cent of influencers failed to properly disclose paid partnerships.

    Influencers are incentivized to do this because advertising-heavy content can appear inauthentic and be off-putting to followers. These omissions mislead audiences into thinking products and brand reviews are based on genuine opinion, rather than part of a paid script.

    Multiple influencers have also been caught lying to their followers about their lifestyles. One notable example is Belle Gibson, an Australian wellness influencer who falsely claimed to have cured her terminal cancer through diet. She gained a massive following and profited from these claims before being exposed and fined US$410,000 for misleading and deceptive conduct.

    Netflix trailer for ‘Apple Cider Vinegar.’

    Despite the controversy, Gibson’s story was adapted by Netflix into a series called Apple Cider Vinegar, further fuelling the money-making machine.

    Another case is that of Yovana Mendoza, a raw vegan influencer who was filmed eating fish in a Bali restaurant. The video went viral after being leaked by fellow travellers. Despite later revealing that she had stopped being vegan because of health reasons, she still faced backlash and accusations of hypocrisy.

    Unrealistic beauty standards

    Influencers, and particularly virtual CGI influencers, are also villainized by the masses for perpetuating unrealistic standards and lifestyle choices.

    From posing as the “perfect family” or the “perfect wife” (such as trad wife influencer Hannah Neeleman, also known as Ballerina Farm), to flaunting ultra-thin or perfectly chiselled beauty ideals, influencer content fosters harmful social comparisons.



    Read more:
    Women can build positive body image by controlling what they view on social media

    These portrayals can contribute to anxiety and low self-esteem among social media audiences. Influencers prey on these insecurities to make profit and gain influence, which affects the well-being of these audiences.

    In the case of male Instagram followers of the hashtag #fitfam, one study found increased pressure to achieve the so-called “instabod” — a sculpted, idealized physique — was linked to symptoms of muscle dysmorphia.

    Influencers as champions

    Despite the controversies surrounding influencer culture, some content creators are leveraging their platforms to do good. Body positivity influencers, for instance, advocate for self-love and self-acceptance, which can improve body satisfaction and appreciation among young women.

    One of the best known figures in this space is Ashley Graham, who challenges beauty norms by sharing unedited photos of herself with her 21.4 million Instagram followers.

    There are also green influencers who champion sustainability. For example, Alessandro Vitale teaches urban farming, while Emma Dendler advocates for zero-waste living.

    A study found that many women fashion influencers over 50 engage in what researchers call “styleactivism.” They use their social media platforms to bring about important changes in the ageist and sexist fashion and beauty markets.

    There is also a growing movement known as “deinfluencing,” where influencers discourage mindless consumption by critiquing over-hyped products, like the viral Stanley Cup water bottle.

    Influencers as victims

    While some influencers might profit from the system, others are victims of business exploitation and malpractices. There are a growing number of cases of unpaid labour where influencer agencies, like Speakr, have been accused of withholding payments, leaving creators in financial limbo.

    Black and LGBTQ+ influencers have also reported facing pay discrimination. They often earn less than their white counterparts or are asked to work for free. Stephanie Yeboah, a Black plus-size influencer, told The Guardian she discovered she was paid less than white influencers while working on the same campaign.

    Many influencers operate without the backing of talent managers or influencer agencies, despite taking on multiple roles, including videographers, video editors, scriptwriters, lighting specialists, directors and on-screen talent. This leaves them especially vulnerable to exploitation.

    To top it all, influencers are also victims of online harassment and cyberbullying. As part of a 2021–22 United Kingdom parliamentary inquiry into influencer culture, blogger Em Sheldon told MPs she faced relentless abuse and threats from online trolls.

    As the influencer ecosystem expands and its culture evolves, there is increasing pressure for the industry to prioritize ethics over profit. Weeding out the unethical practices lurking in various corners of this lucrative industry will require collective efforts from policymakers, brands, as well as influencers and their followers.

    Aya Aboelenien receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC)

    Ai Ming Chow does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Are influencers villains, victims or champions of change? The reality is more complex – https://theconversation.com/are-influencers-villains-victims-or-champions-of-change-the-reality-is-more-complex-257527

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘That was rude’: why the new Broadway musical Death Becomes Her was ripe for TikTok memes

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Camp, Senior Lecturer, School of Music, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    A few snippets of musicalised dialogue from the cast album of the new Broadway musical Death Becomes Her – with music and lyrics by Julia Mattison and Noel Carey, and a book by Marco Pennette – have recently become trending sonic memes on TikTok.

    In all sorts of situations, users are lip synching to audio clips of Broadway star Jennifer Simard, in the character of Helen Sharp (played by Goldie Hawn in the 1992 cult film on which the musical is based), saying things like “That was rude. That was pretty fuckin’ rude” and “She stole my life. She made me cuckoo. She’s why I spent four years locked in that health spa.”

    Musical theatre fans love a good meme (scholar Trevor Boffone has written a whole book about the phenomenon) and Death Becomes Her is primed to create a lot of them: a show featuring two divas (played by Simard and Megan Hilty as Madeleine Ashton, Meryl Streep’s role in the movie) based on a cult film about divas begs to be shaped and reshaped by fan culture.

    Helen and Madeleine are longtime rivals who both take a magic potion that makes them immortal. This leads them to find increasingly extravagant ways to try and do away with each other, with the help of Helen’s put-upon husband Ernest (Christopher Sieber), a plastic surgeon who reluctantly falls into the role of restoring their bodies after each “accident”.

    Some of Hilty’s clips have also been TikTok-ified (notably Tell Me, Earnest) but Simard is winning the numbers game. Her “That was rude” clip alone has 321,000 videos and counting.

    Finding the patter

    There seem to be two main reasons for the attraction of these clips. First is Simard’s delivery of the words. Simard is a longstanding Broadway star and an expert at musical comedy timing.

    Second is the rhythmic quality of the dialogue. Not fully sung, these bits are spoken in mostly strict rhythm over orchestral accompaniment. That they have become such earworms demonstrates it is not only melody that burrows into the brain, but also rhythmic contour.

    There is a long history of this style of speak-singing in musical theatre, notably popularised in the late 1950s by Robert Preston in The Music Man and Rex Harrison in My Fair Lady.

    Neither of those actors was a strong singer, but both had excellent timing and were able to deliver spoken lines above music with a strong sense of musicality.

    Simard is an excellent singer with a very wide range, but the comic role of Helen – ever the underdog to her rival famous actress Madeleine – lends itself to this style of heightened speech.

    Most effective rhythmically, and the most popular excerpt, is the “That was rude” meme, where Simard begins slowly without accompaniment; the bass comes in on “rude” and sets a groove for the rest of the short excerpt.

    This one has been used in every possible situation, from responses to nasty notes left on people’s cars to complaints about incorrect drink orders. Some of the TikTokers refer to Simard in on-screen text, but this one seems to have become popular outside any specific reference to the show, in a truly viral moment.

    Ripe for the lip-sync

    The lengthiest of the trending excerpts is the one that begins with “We talked about killing her before”, which sets off a monologue about Helen’s plan to do away with Madeline once and for all.

    This is a tour de force for Simard’s comic timing, as it begins in free rhythm and then gradually takes on a more consistent beat. TikTokers are tending to use this one primarily as a demonstration of their lip-syncing skills, as opposed to the other shorter clips that are applied in different ironic situations.

    This trend also shows the continuing importance of the cast album in musical theatre culture. The majority of TikTokers probably have not seen the show, currently only playing on Broadway with high ticket prices. Yet the cast album (easily available on all the main streaming sites) gives access.

    The fact these clips come from a cast album also more easily allows fans to create their own visuals around it. Unless they actually saw the show they only have production photographs and short publicity clips (and the occasional shaky bootleg or slime tutorial) to go on in terms of what it looks like.

    Audio from a source like the soundtrack of the Wicked movie has not led to so many lip-sync videos because the visual track is so readily accessible; as a film, Wicked’s visuals define its audio while a cast album can more easily work the other way round.

    Beyond Broadway

    I saw Death Becomes Her on Broadway in January and enjoyed it. It’s a fun show full of special effects and comic bits. The score is serviceable (it’s not Sondheim), but it is catchy – very important for its use in these TikTok trends – and well performed by Simard and the rest of the cast.

    This whole phenomenon demonstrates that the current cultural sphere of “Broadway” extends well beyond the street itself. This has been the case at least since the rise of the cast album in the 1950s (My Fair Lady’s was the best-selling LP of 1956), but now the reach is intensified by social media spaces like TikTok; you don’t have to have actually seen Death Becomes Her to experience it.

    Gregory Camp does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘That was rude’: why the new Broadway musical Death Becomes Her was ripe for TikTok memes – https://theconversation.com/that-was-rude-why-the-new-broadway-musical-death-becomes-her-was-ripe-for-tiktok-memes-257550

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Supreme Court changes the game on federal environmental reviews

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By J.B. Ruhl, Professor of Law, Director, Program on Law and Innovation, and Co-director, Energy, Environment and Land Use Program, Vanderbilt University

    A pumpjack in eastern Utah extracts oil from underground. AP Photo/Rick Bowmer

    Getting federal approval for permits to build bridges, wind farms, highways and other major infrastructure projects has long been a complicated and time-consuming process. Despite growing calls from both parties for Congress and federal agencies to reform that process, there had been few significant revisions – until now.

    In one fell swoop, the U.S. Supreme Court has changed a big part of the game.

    Whether the effects are good or bad depends on the viewer’s perspective. Either way, there is a new interpretation in place for the law that is the centerpiece of the debate about permitting – the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, known as NEPA.

    Taking a big-picture look

    NEPA requires federal agencies to document and describe the environmental effects of any proposed action, including construction of oil pipelines, renewable energy and other infrastructure projects.

    Only after completing that work can the agency make a final decision to approve or deny the project. These reports must evaluate direct effects, such as the destruction of habitat to make way for a new highway, and indirect effects, such as the air pollution from cars using the highway after it is built.

    Decades of litigation about the scope of indirect effects have widened the required evaluation. As I explain it to my students, that logical and legal progression is reminiscent of the popular children’s book “If You Give a Mouse a Cookie,” in which granting a request for a cookie triggers a seemingly endless series of further requests – for a glass of milk, a napkin and so on. For the highway example, the arguments went, even if the agency properly assessed the pollution from the cars, it also had to consider the new subdivisions, malls and jobs the new highway foreseeably could induce.

    The challenge for federal agencies was knowing how much of that potentially limitless series of indirect effects courts would require them to evaluate. In recent litigation, the question in particular has been how broad a range of effects on and from climate change could be linked to any one specific project and therefore require evaluation.

    With the court’s ruling, federal agencies’ days of uncertainty are over.

    The cover image of the 637-page environmental impact assessment shows a view of the region where a railway is proposed to be built.
    U.S. Surface Transportation Board

    Biggest NEPA case in decades

    On May 29, 2025, the Supreme Court – minus Justice Neil Gorsuch, who had recused himself – decided the case of Seven County Infrastructure Coalition v. Eagle County, Colorado, the first major NEPA dispute before the court in 20 years.

    At issue was an 85-mile rail line a group of developers proposed to build in Utah to connect oil wells to the interstate rail network and from there transport waxy crude oil to refineries in Louisiana, Texas and elsewhere. The federal Surface Transportation Board reviewed the environmental effects and approved the required license in 2021.

    The report was 637 pages long, with more than 3,000 pages of appendices containing additional information. It acknowledged but did not give a detailed assessment of the indirect “upstream” effects of constructing the rail line – such as spurring new oil drilling – and the indirect “downstream” effects of the ultimate use of the waxy oil in places as far flung as Louisiana.

    In February 2022, Eagle County, Colorado, through which trains coming from the new railway would pass, along with the Center for Biological Diversity appealed that decision in federal court, arguing that the board had failed to properly explain why it did not assess those effects. Therefore, the county argued, the report was incomplete and the board license should be vacated.

    In August 2023, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit agreed and held that the agency had failed to adequately explain why it could not employ “some degree of forecasting” to identify those impacts and that the board could prevent those effects by exercising its authority to deny the license.

    The railway developers appealed to the Supreme Court, asking whether NEPA requires a federal agency to look beyond the action being proposed to evalutate indirect effects outside its own jurisdiction.

    Petroleum-drilling equipment stands in the Uinta Basin in eastern Utah.
    AP Photo/Rick Bowmer

    A resounding declaration

    Writing for a five-justice majority, Justice Brett Kavanaugh delivered a ringing, table-pounding lecture about courts run amok.

    Kavanaugh did not stop to provide specific support for each admonition, describing NEPA as a “legislative acorn” that has “grown over the years into a judicial oak that has hindered infrastructure development.” He bemoaned the “delay upon delay” NEPA imposes on projects as so complicated that it bordered “on the Kafkaesque.”

    In his view, “NEPA has transformed from a modest procedural requirement into a blunt and haphazard tool employed by project opponents.” He called for “a course correction … to bring judicial review under NEPA back in line with the statutory text and common sense.” His opinion reset the course in three ways.

    First, despite the Supreme Court having recently reduced the deference courts must give to federal agency decisions in other contexts, Kavanaugh wrote that courts should give agencies strong deference when reviewing an agency’s NEPA effects analyses. Because these assessments are “fact-dependent, context-specific, and policy-laden choices about the depth and breadth of its inquiry … (c)ourts should afford substantial deference and should not micromanage those agency choices so long as they fall within a broad zone of reasonableness.”

    Second, Kavanaugh crafted a new rule saying that the review of one project did not need to consider the potential indirect effects of other related projects it could foreseeably induce, such as the rail line encouraging more drilling for oil. This limitation is especially relevant, Kavanaugh emphasized, when the effects are from projects over which the reviewing agency does not have jurisdiction. That applied in this case, because the board does not regulate oil wells or oil drilling.

    And third, Kavanaugh created something like a “no harm – no foul” rule, under which “even if an (environmental impact statement) falls short in some respects, that deficiency may not necessarily require a court to vacate the agency’s ultimate approval of a project.” The strong implication is that courts should not overturn an agency decision unless its NEPA assessment has a serious flaw.

    The upshot for the project at hand was that the Supreme Court deferred to the board’s decision that it could not reliably predict the rail line’s effects on oil drilling or use of the oil transported. And the fact that the agency had no regulatory power over those separate issues reinforced the idea that those concerns were outside the scope of the board’s required review.

    A train rolls along a stretch of track in Utah that could be connected with a proposed railway to carry oil to market.
    AP Photo/Rick Bowmer

    A split court

    Although Justice Sonia Sotomayor, joined by Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, wrote that she would have reached the same end result and upheld the agency permit, her proposed test is far narrower.

    By her reading, the federal law creating the Surface Transportation Board restricted it from considering the broader indirect effects of the rail line. But her finding would be relevant only for any federal agencies whose governing statutes were similarly restrictive. By contrast, Kavanaugh’s “course correction” applies to judicial review of NEPA findings for all federal agencies.

    Though the full effects remain to be seen, this decision significantly changes the legal landscape of environmental reviews of major projects. Agencies will have more latitude to shorten the causal chain of indirect effects they consider – and to exclude them entirely if they flow from separate projects beyond the agency’s regulatory control.

    Now, for example, if a federal agency is considering an application to build a new natural gas power plant, the review must still include its direct greenhouse gas emissions and their effects on the climate. But emissions that could result from additional gas extraction and transportation projects to fuel the power plant, and any climate effects from whatever the produced electricity is used for, are now clearly outside the agency’s required review. And if the agency voluntarily decided to consider any of those effects, courts would have to defer to its analysis, and any minor deficiencies would be inconsequential.

    That is a far cry from how the legal structure around the National Environmental Policy Act has worked for decades. For lawyers, industry, advocacy groups and the courts, environmental review after the Eagle County decision is not just a new ballgame; it is a new sport.

    J.B. Ruhl does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Supreme Court changes the game on federal environmental reviews – https://theconversation.com/supreme-court-changes-the-game-on-federal-environmental-reviews-257881

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine ‘spiderweb’ drone strike fails to register at peace talks as both sides dig in for the long haul

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

    News of the spectacular “spiderweb” mass drone attack on Russian air bases on June 1 will have been uppermost in the minds of delegates who assembled the following day for another round of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul. The attack appears to have been a triumph of Ukrainian intelligence and planning that destroyed or damaged billions of pounds’ worth of Russian aircraft stationed at bases across the country, including at locations as far away as Siberia.

    Ukraine’s drone strikes, much like Russia’s intensifying air campaign, hardly signal either side’s sincere commitment to negotiations. As it turned out, little of any consequence was agreed at the brief meeting between negotiators, beyond a prisoner swap, confirming yet again that neither a ceasefire nor a peace agreement are likely anytime soon.

    But the broader context of developments on the battlefield and beyond can offer important clues about the trajectory of the war in the coming months.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    At an earlier meeting in Istanbul in May, Moscow and Kyiv agreed to draft and exchange detailed proposals for a settlement. The Ukrainian proposal restated the longstanding position of Kyiv and its western allies that concessions on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country are unacceptable.

    In other words, a Russian-imposed neutrality ruling out Nato membership and limiting the size of Ukraine’s armed forces is a non-starter for Kyiv. So is any international recognition of Moscow’s illegal land-grabs since 2014, including the annexation of Crimea.

    The Ukrainian proposal is for an immediate ceasefire along the frontline as “the starting point for negotiations”. Any territorial issues would be discussed “after a full and unconditional ceasefire”.

    In substance, this is very similar to the peace plan presented by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky in late 2022. This was received warmly by Ukraine’s main western allies, but failed to get traction with the broader international community.

    Russia’s proposals, meanwhile, are also mostly old news. Russia maintains its demands for full recognition of Russian territorial claims since 2014, Ukrainian neutrality.

    These stringent Russian demands in return for even a temporary ceasefire are hardly any more serious negotiation positions from Ukraine’s perspective than Kyiv’s proposals are likely to be to Moscow. In fact, what the Kremlin put on the table in Istanbul is more akin to surrender terms.

    Ukraine is in no mood to surrender. The spiderweb drone attack against Russia’s strategic bomber fleet is a significant boost for Ukrainian morale. But, like previous drone strikes against Moscow in June 2023, it means little in terms of signalling a sustainable Ukrainian capability that could even out Russia’s advantages in terms of manpower and equipment.

    The state of the conflict in Ukraine as at June 3 2025.
    Institute for the Study of War

    Closer to the frontlines inside Ukraine, Kyiv’s forces also struck the power grid inside Russian-occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. This may delay any Russian plans to expand its control over the two regions. But, like the latest drone strikes inside Russia, it is at best an operation that entrenches, rather than breaks the current stalemate.

    There is no doubt that Ukraine remains under severe military pressure from Russia along most of the more than 1,000 mile frontline. The country is also still very vulnerable to Russian air attacks.

    But while Russia might continue to make incremental gains on the battlefield, a game-changing Russian offensive or a collapse of Ukrainian defences does not appear to be on the cards.

    International support

    Kyiv’s position will potentially also be strengthened by a new bill in the US senate that threatens the imposition of 500% tariffs on any countries that buy Russian resources. This would primarily affect India and China.

    These are the largest consumers of Russian oil and gas, and if New Delhi and Beijing decide that trade with the US is more important to them cheap imports from Russia, the move could cut Russia off from critical revenues and imports.

    But, given how indecisive Donald Trump has been to date when it comes to putting any real, rather than just rhetorical, pressure on Vladimir Putin, it is not clear whether the proposed senate bill will have the desired effect. The bill has support of over 80 co-sponsors from both the Republican and Democratic caucuses, meaning the senate could overturn a presidential veto. But any delay in imposing tougher sanctions will ultimately play into Putin’s hands.

    By contrast, European support for Ukraine has, if anything, increased in recent months. For example, EU leaders adopted their 17th sanctions package against Russia on May 20. A week later, Germany and Ukraine announced a new military cooperation agreement worth €5 billion (£4.2 billion).

    It still falls short of what Kyiv would require for a major shift in the balance of power on the battlefield. But for now it is enough to prevent Russia from becoming militarily so dominant that Moscow’s current settlement proposals would present the only option for at least some part of Ukraine to survive as an independent state.

    The war remains in a stalemate. Neither Moscow nor Kyiv appear to have the capacity to escalate their military efforts to the degree necessary that would force the other side to make substantial concessions.

    Both sides are playing for time in the hope that their fortunes may change. For Ukraine, this would mean more US military support coupled with more sanctions pressure on Russia, while Europe follows through on building up its own and Ukraine’s defence capabilities.

    Russia’s calculations will be different. Putin will need to keep his few remaining allies – China, Iran and North Korea – on side while trying to make a deal with Trump. This may be impossible to achieve.

    In this case, the Russian dictator’s best hope might be that Trump does not impose any serious sanctions on Russia or its trade partners, let alone lean into increasing military support for Ukraine.

    For both sides, a lot still hinges on Washington. The unpredictability of the Trump White House, much like the self-imposed restraint under Biden, not only makes it unlikely that the war in Ukraine moves beyond the current stalemate, it has become a major, and perhaps the decisive road block that enables both Moscow and Kyiv to dream of victory in a war that has become unwinnable.

    Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

    Tetyana Malyarenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ukraine ‘spiderweb’ drone strike fails to register at peace talks as both sides dig in for the long haul – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-spiderweb-drone-strike-fails-to-register-at-peace-talks-as-both-sides-dig-in-for-the-long-haul-257927

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The strategic defence review means three new approaches for the UK

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By David J. Galbreath, Professor of War and Technology, University of Bath

    The UK government’s new strategic defence review has laid out a blueprint aimed at making Britain “secure at home, strong abroad”.

    The review represents a change in how the government thinks about the UK’s defence amid a rapidly changing geopolitical picture. The Labour government launched the review in July 2024 shortly after taking office, as a first step in reassessing UK armed forces in the face of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Prime Minister Keir Starmer acknowledged at the time: “We live in a more dangerous and volatile world.”

    The government has accepted the review’s 62 recommendations. The most eye-catching parts are investment and development of new weapons: expanding the UK’s nuclear capabilities, drone swarms and long-range missile systems, new F-35 and updated Typhoon fighter jets and autonomous weapon systems.

    Unlike past reviews, this one was conducted by experts outside of the government: former Nato secretary general Lord Robertson, former US National Security Council member and former White House adviser Fiona Hill, and retired British Army officer General Sir Richard Barrons.

    In addition to practical measures of investment and expansion, the review lays out the more difficult changes that are needed to respond to security challenges, namely Russian threats to Europe. Here are three key aspects to understand.

    1. War-fighting ready

    The review says the UK must be “ready to fight and win” a full-scale war. Importantly, it suggests that the UK is no longer in an era of going to war when it chooses – but instead is facing the possibility of being forced into war.

    Academic Mary Kaldor made the distinction between the two types of wars in her book New Wars and Old Wars, stating that old wars are “wars of necessity”, and new wars are “wars of the willing”. Published a few years after the end of the cold war, it’s easy to see why Kaldor made this distinction.

    But the strategic review paints a different picture – that wars of necessity are once again the UK’s primary security concern. This means the UK must be on a different war footing than it has been since 1991.

    As such, the government and the UK armed forces will have to change and become more innovative to meet this challenge. To do this, the review lays out plans for an “integrated force” model (rather than joint forces). It describes this approach as leading to “a more agile and lethal combat force”.

    The review also calls for a “whole society approach”, including expanding the voluntary under-18 cadet forces, protecting national infrastructure and public outreach.

    2. Pace of innovation

    The review includes a host of recommendations for digital innovation and munitions production, and suggests that the defence industry could be an even bigger contributor to growing the economy. But, it notes, the UK’s defence industry is currently “stuck in cold war-era procurement cycles” and processes.

    It points to a need to speed up planning and procurement and improve partnerships with the commercial sector.

    Many digital innovations are being driven by industry in the US and China, such as the work on AI, nanotechnologies, robotics and automation. The challenge for the UK will be how to build good relationships with those countries on innovation which does not have a strong presence in UK digital industries.

    Keir Starmer and Defence Secretary John Healey visit the warship HMS Glasgow.
    Lauren Hurley/Number 10/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

    3. Nato first

    The reelection of Donald Trump in 2024 shocked many into thinking that the trans-Atlantic relationship was fast dissolving, though the change has been going on for some time . This review acknowledges that in setting out a “Nato first” approach:

    There is an unequivocal need for the UK to redouble its efforts within the Alliance and to step up its contribution to Euro-Atlantic security more broadly – particularly as Russian aggression across Europe grows and as the United States of America adapts its regional priorities.

    It states that Europe and the transatlantic area will be the UK’s primary reference for security. This marks a shift from the previous “Indo-pacific tilt” defence focus laid out in the 2021 integrated review.

    The Nato-first approach seems to be at odds with the direction of Nato’s largest and most powerful member, the US. Since the end of the 1990s, US presidents have repeatedly sought to realign US grand strategy towards China and away from Europe. Had the Russian Federation not invaded Crimea in 2014, the Obama administration may have been able to carry out this pivot.

    As it stands, with the second Trump presidency and its repeated calls for increasing defence spending from European states (in addition to what has often been seen as less than resolute intentions towards Russia), one might think Nato should be counting its days, rather than being placed at the centre of a new strategic review.

    However, regardless of Trump’s actions, the UK will still matter for Washington for the foreseeable future, because it remains an ally and it does defence well. Nato still remains the way to do coalition-building because it has been around for so long and has built up the institutions to do high-level defence cooperation and coordination.

    The review recognises the direction of travel for Washington, and how much it requires the UK and other European governments to invest in their own defence.

    David J. Galbreath has received funding from the UKRI.

    – ref. The strategic defence review means three new approaches for the UK – https://theconversation.com/the-strategic-defence-review-means-three-new-approaches-for-the-uk-258002

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Moby-Dick doesn’t deserve the ‘difficult’ label – this sea romance was once loved by office workers, sailors and children

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Edward Sugden, Senior Lecturer in American Studies, King’s College London

    I am currently writing a biography of Herman Melville’s 1851 novel, Moby-Dick. The most important thing I have learnt is that Moby-Dick is not – as is often presumed – a difficult book. I claim this on the basis of those who read it, how they did so and what they took from it in the first decades of its life.

    Moby-Dick has a fearsome reputation: dense, time-consuming, boring and bizarre. This reputation (although not absolutely unfair) was initially fabricated by a subset of “elite” Anglo-American academic readers in the 1920s to separate it from the very people who had previously sustained its existence.

    In 1994, literature professor Paul Lauter wrote an article that showed how nationalist scholars, looking to forge an American tradition, elevated Moby-Dick to the status of a classic to exclude non-specialist readers.

    But earlier readers knew Moby-Dick for what it was: an extreme and ambitious form of popular genre fiction, like science fiction or fantasy, known as the “sea romance”.

    This article is part of Rethinking the Classics. The stories in this series offer insightful new ways to think about and interpret classic books and artworks. This is the canon – with a twist.

    A romance meant something different in 1851 to what it does now. According to Noah Webster’s Dictionary, then the go-to reference, a romance was “a fabulous relation or story” that went “beyond the limits and facts of real life, and often of probability”.

    Melville was at this time a literary celebrity after his loosely non-fictional debut Typee (1846) became a transatlantic bestseller for its exotic descriptions of South Pacific captivity. In a letter to his publisher, he wrote that Moby-Dick was a “romance of adventure, founded upon certain wild legends in the southern sperm whale fisheries”.

    Herman Melville as painted by Joseph Oriel Eaton in 1870.
    Houghton Library/Harvard University

    You could assume that Melville was being cynical – to sell the book, he misrepresented it as having more commercial potential than he thought it did. But I think he was in earnest.

    The novel’s initial public was, broadly, found among the professional middle classes in America, who had a taste for this genre, dreaming of faraway places while chained to their desks. I know this because I have tracked down around 150 first editions of this book and, with the help of genealogical websites, signatures, dates and locations, worked out who some of the owners were and what they did.

    In the 1860s, Moby-Dick almost disappeared from the historical record, a situation not helped by a fire at his publisher’s works. But silence and absence are different things. There were many readers who still enjoyed Moby-Dick, though they only glancingly show up in print.

    Moby-Dick’s early readers

    My research has found that children read and lived with Moby-Dick in the 19th century. It pops up in memoirs, reminiscences, fictions and juvenile literature.

    They played games based on the book; they took it out from libraries and made it dog-eared; they scrawled odd and eerie images on it; they and elder generations read it out loud together; and Moby-Dick (evidently a familiar character) himself featured in a Christmas tale about mermaids called The Merman and the Figure-Head (1871) by Clara Florida Guernsey.

    If we take children as its audience, rather than scholarly readers, a quite different Moby-Dick appears. The novel’s plot becomes straightforward and exciting, its tone blithe and consumable, its function to teach and to entertain.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Other non-specialist readers sustained its reputation on similar terms. It seems very likely working-class sailor readers enjoyed it. That’s because its basic plot appears in a number of dime novels (mass-produced thriller fiction) such as Robert Starbuck’s The Mad Skipper (1866) and Captain Barnacle’s Péhe Nu-é (1877), written by and for such readers.

    It also, sporadically, appears on deck, with one sailor, the future sea fiction writer Louis Becke, learning of it in Apia in the Samoan islands via “a small and sweet-natured English lady” who came on board with it and read it aloud with the captain. Becke recounts this episode in an introduction to Moby-Dick in a reissue of 1901.

    The last known image of Melville.
    New York Public Library

    As time went, on these foundational readers found extra fellow enthusiasts among socialists, queer people, outcasts and travellers, even if things continued much as they always had done. Literature professor Hershel Parker’s “historical note” to the Northwestern-Newberry edition tracks some of these readers down.

    In the early decades of the 20th century, Moby-Dick moved up in the world. But, generally, even if it cultivated a bourgeois reading audience, it did so as a perfect example of the historically remote form of the sea romance, rather than as a classic.

    The major event in Moby-Dick’s reputation in the 1920s was a popular silent film adaptation, The Sea Beast (1926). Collectively, readers thought of it less in analytical terms, than as something that offered guidance on how to live. I have found hundreds of off-hand, ordinary (and moving for that fact) references to it in travel narratives, letters, diaries, novels, poems and anecdotes from this era.

    Making visible these early readers who viewed Moby-Dick as mass cultural genre fiction creates a picture of a substantially different novel. It ceases to rise, Everest-like and admonitory, amid the peaks of the canon. Instead, it descends from the heights to subsist, amiably and openly, in the ardours and passions of the everyday.

    Beyond the canon

    As part of the Rethinking the Classics series, we’re asking our experts to recommend a book or artwork that tackles similar themes to the canonical work in question, but isn’t (yet) considered a classic itself. Here is Edward Sugden’s suggestion:

    I often wonder “what is the Moby-Dick of the 20th century?” I would nominate Gene Wolfe’s science fiction masterpiece, The Fifth Head of Cerberus novellas (1972). The novelist Ursula Le Guin once called Wolfe “our Melville”, so I’m in good company.

    The three novellas are set on the fictional planets Sainte Croix and Sainte Anne. They are about the relationship between (possibly) human settlers and a (possibly) shape-shifting indigenous population who may or may not have existed.

    In a dense, cryptic, visionary, philosophical and astonishingly crisp style, these novellas explore cloning, evil, dreamworlds, alien life, identity, fate, ritual, ethnology and much more besides in ways that defy summary and which far exceed any plot synopsis. It feels – in spirit and in terms of its reception – something like Moby-Dick.

    Edward Sugden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Moby-Dick doesn’t deserve the ‘difficult’ label – this sea romance was once loved by office workers, sailors and children – https://theconversation.com/moby-dick-doesnt-deserve-the-difficult-label-this-sea-romance-was-once-loved-by-office-workers-sailors-and-children-252764

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sirens: the dark psychology of how people really get drawn into cults

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Joy Cranham, Lecturer in the Department of Education, University of Bath, University of Bath

    Like other quirky TV shows that explore coercively controlling groups, Sirens leans into the “wackiness” of cult life. Set on a remote island, an affluent community exists under extravagant rule of Michaela Kell aka Kiki (Julianne Moore). Her devoted followers – many of whom are employed by her – are committed to ensuring her every whim is met.

    This carefully curated existence appears bizarre but flawless, until outsider Devon (Meghann Fahy) arrives looking for her sister Simone (Milly Alcock) and begins to illuminate the control and cult-like behaviour being used as tools of oppression.

    It is easy to laugh along with Sirens, to get caught up in the eccentric characters and absurd rituals – from assistants being instructed to sext Kiki’s partner to rituals around perfuming her underwear drawer each morning. We shake our heads at the characters’ choices and reassure ourselves: “I would never fall for that, I would just leave.”

    But the uncomfortable truth is it’s not that simple.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    What portrayals of cult communities in sitcoms often miss, or gloss over, is the deeply manipulative psychology behind why leaving a cult is incredibly difficult.

    Research into cult experiences has shown, cults do not just trap people physically. They entrap them mentally and emotionally too.

    I have seen this in my own research into how to help children and their families resist exploitative and coercively controlling individuals and groups. We do see such entrapment in Sirens but it is often obscured by the wackiness of Michaela’s cult-ish community.

    Isolation and love-bombing

    In the real world, entrapment starts with isolation. New recruits are gradually cut off from their support networks, separated from their friends and family.

    We see this in Sirens between Simone, who is Kiki’s assistant, and her outsider sister Devon. In one episode, for instance, Simone makes it clear to Devon that their matching sister tattoos were no longer valuable to her.

    What was once a show of love has become viewed as “trashy” by Simone. This is a reflection of how Simone was being manipulated away from her previous values.

    Rejecting the importance of familial relationships is a tool often used by cult leaders, enabling them to construct rifts between the person in the cult and their loved one on the outside.

    In Sirens, we see a sisterly relationship become ruptured at the instruction of the powerful Kiki, who exploits the vulnerability of Simone to her own advantage.

    Then comes the love-bombing – a flood of praise, attention, and affection. It feels amazing, especially to someone who has been overlooked or undervalued.

    When the person expresses surprise, the group responds with lines like, “that’s because we truly see you” or they belittle the person’s previous relationships.

    The message from the group is clear: only we value you. Only we understand the real you.

    Fear and dependence

    But the honeymoon phase does not last. Soon, the fear of being cast out takes hold. The group convinces the person that they can only become their best self within the group, that they are fulfilling a higher destiny by being guided by the leader.

    Leaders in cults use authoritarian tactics, often portraying themselves as messianic figures with mystical powers. They demand unwavering loyalty and devotion. Questioning their authority is not tolerated. Any concern or question is reframed as a personal failing rather than as legitimate concern.

    Punishment for dissent reinforces the leader’s dominance and sends a clear message to the rest of the group: Do not question. The leader and their doctrines are irrefutable.

    This sort of control can lead people to do things they never imagined they would.
    Take the scene where Simone willingly chews gum that has just been in Kiki’s mouth. We might cringe at this, think it’s gross and abnormal, but it’s symbolic of something much bigger: it depicted total control being exerted over another.

    Here we watch as Kiki insults Simone, telling her her breath stinks. Instead of being seen as cruelty it is perceived as care, and Kiki then giving Simone the gum she has just chewed to rectify the problem, is perceived as kindness. Simone is grateful and doesn’t question it at all.

    Simone’s mind has been manipulated. Devon asks her: “Does Michaela have her talons so deep in your brain you cannot tell, you are in trouble?” Through using thought reform techniques, cults hack minds. They override critical thinking and replace it with fear and dependency.

    The constant sense of danger and fear keeps members in a state of acute stress, impairing their capacity to think clearly or make rational decisions. However, this constant fear is happening in a place they are repeatedly told and are convincing themselves is where they have never been happier.

    The cognitive dissonance of this can contribute to the group’s ability to retain members even when exposing them to prolonged psychological and or physical abuse. Even after someone leaves, the effects of this trauma can linger for years – sometimes a lifetime.

    Survivors often exit these groups with very few tangible resources. Education and employability may have been restricted and housing and financial independence are often tightly controlled by the group.

    Many survivors suffer from mental health issues and other stress induced physical ailments. As a result, survivors require various forms of support and different interventions over the cause of their recovery.

    And yet, in pop culture, cults are often played for laughs. The trauma is reduced to punch lines. To be fair, shows like Sirens effectively capture the bizarre nature of cult life and hopefully reading this piece has helped you look beyond the laughs to see the dark nature of how these groups operate. For survivors, cult life is not eccentric or surreal – it is traumatic.

    Joy Cranham volunteers for Faith to Faithless, an organisation that supports apostates who are often former members of high-demand religions or cult-like organisations. Faith to Faithless is connected to Humanist UK

    – ref. Sirens: the dark psychology of how people really get drawn into cults – https://theconversation.com/sirens-the-dark-psychology-of-how-people-really-get-drawn-into-cults-257759

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What if the Big Bang wasn’t the beginning? Our research suggests it may have taken place inside a black hole

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Enrique Gaztanaga, Professor at Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation (University of Portsmouth), University of Portsmouth

    Vadim Sadovski/Shutterstock

    The Big Bang is often described as the explosive birth of the universe — a singular moment when space, time and matter sprang into existence. But what if this was not the beginning at all? What if our universe emerged from something else — something more familiar and radical at the same time?

    In a new paper, published in Physical Review D, my colleagues and I propose a striking alternative. Our calculations suggest the Big Bang was not the start of everything, but rather the outcome of a gravitational crunch or collapse that formed a very massive black hole — followed by a bounce inside it.

    This idea — which we call the black hole universe — offers a radically different view of cosmic origins, yet it is grounded entirely in known physics and observations.

    Today’s standard cosmological model, based on the Big Bang and cosmic inflation (the idea that the early universe rapidly blew up in size), has been remarkably successful in explaining the structure and evolution of the universe. But it comes at a price: it leaves some of the most fundamental questions unanswered.

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    For one, the Big Bang model begins with a singularity — a point of infinite density where the laws of physics break down. This is not just a technical glitch; it’s a deep theoretical problem that suggests we don’t really understand the beginning at all.

    To explain the universe’s large-scale structure, physicists introduced a brief phase of rapid expansion into the early universe called cosmic inflation, powered by an unknown field with strange properties. Later, to explain the accelerating expansion observed today, they added another “mysterious” component: dark energy.

    In short, the standard model of cosmology works well — but only by introducing new ingredients we have never observed directly. Meanwhile, the most basic questions remain open: where did everything come from? Why did it begin this way? And why is the universe so flat, smooth, and large?

    New model

    Our new model tackles these questions from a different angle — by looking inward instead of outward. Instead of starting with an expanding universe and trying to trace back how it began, we consider what happens when an overly dense collection of matter collapses under gravity.

    This is a familiar process: stars collapse into black holes, which are among the most well-understood objects in physics. But what happens inside a black hole, beyond the event horizon from which nothing can escape, remains a mystery.

    In 1965, the British physicist Roger Penrose proved that under very general conditions, gravitational collapse must lead to a singularity. This result, extended by the late British physicist Stephen Hawking and others, underpins the idea that singularities — like the one at the Big Bang — are unavoidable.

    The idea helped win Penrose a share of the 2020 Nobel prize in physics and inspired Hawking’s global bestseller A Brief History of Time: From the Big Bang to Black Holes. But there’s a caveat. These “singularity theorems” rely on “classical physics” which describes ordinary macroscopic objects. If we include the effects of quantum mechanics, which rules the tiny microcosmos of atoms and particles, as we must at extreme densities, the story may change.

    In our new paper, we show that gravitational collapse does not have to end in a singularity. We find an exact analytical solution – a mathematical result with no approximations. Our maths show that as we approach the potential singularity, the size of the universe changes as a (hyperbolic) function of cosmic time.

    This simple mathematical solution describes how a collapsing cloud of matter can reach a high-density state and then bounce, rebounding outward into a new expanding phase.

    But how come Penrose’s theorems forbid out such outcomes? It’s all down to a rule called the quantum exclusion principle, which states that no two identical particles known as fermions can occupy the same quantum state (such as angular momentum, or “spin”).

    And we show that this rule prevents the particles in the collapsing matter from being squeezed indefinitely. As a result, the collapse halts and reverses. The bounce is not only possible — it’s inevitable under the right conditions.

    Crucially, this bounce occurs entirely within the framework of general relativity, which applies on large scales such as stars and galaxies, combined with the basic principles of quantum mechanics — no exotic fields, extra dimensions or speculative physics required.

    What emerges on the other side of the bounce is a universe remarkably like our own. Even more surprisingly, the rebound naturally produces the two separate phases of accelerated expansion — inflation and dark energy — driven not by a hypothetical fields but by the physics of the bounce itself.

    Testable predictions

    One of the strengths of this model is that it makes testable predictions. It predicts a small but non-zero amount of positive spatial curvature — meaning the universe is not exactly flat, but slightly curved, like the surface of the Earth.

    This is simply a relic of the initial small over-density that triggered the collapse. If future observations, such as the ongoing Euclid mission, confirm a small positive curvature, it would be a strong hint that our universe did indeed emerge from such a bounce. It also makes predictions about the current universe’s rate of expansion, something that has already been verified.

    The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carrying ESA’s Euclid mission on the launch pad in 2023.
    https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Euclid, CC BY-SA

    This model does more than fix technical problems with standard cosmology. It could also shed new light on other deep mysteries in our understanding of the early universe — such as the origin of supermassive black holes, the nature of dark matter, or the hierarchical formation and evolution of galaxies.

    These questions will be explored by future space missions such as Arrakhis, which will study diffuse features such as stellar halos (a spherical structure of stars and globular clusters surrounding galaxies) and satellite galaxies (smaller galaxies that orbit larger ones) that are difficult to detect with traditional telescopes from Earth and will help us understand dark matter and galaxy evolution.

    These phenomena might also be linked to relic compact objects — such as black holes — that formed during the collapsing phase and survived the bounce.

    The black hole universe also offers a new perspective on our place in the cosmos. In this framework, our entire observable universe lies inside the interior of a black hole formed in some larger “parent” universe.

    We are not special, no more than Earth was in the geocentric worldview that led Galileo (the astronomer who suggested the Earth revolves around the Sun in the 16th and 17th centuries) to be placed under house arrest.

    We are not witnessing the birth of everything from nothing, but rather the continuation of a cosmic cycle — one shaped by gravity, quantum mechanics, and the deep interconnections between them.

    Enrique Gaztanaga receives funding from the Spanish Plan Nacional (PGC2018-102021-B-100) and
    Maria de Maeztu (CEX2020-001058-M) grants.

    Enrique Gaztanaga is also a Professor at the Institute of Space Sciences (CSIC/IEEC) in Barcelona and publishes a science blog called Dark Cosmos.

    – ref. What if the Big Bang wasn’t the beginning? Our research suggests it may have taken place inside a black hole – https://theconversation.com/what-if-the-big-bang-wasnt-the-beginning-our-research-suggests-it-may-have-taken-place-inside-a-black-hole-258010

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Exercise proves powerful in preventing colon cancer recurrence – new study

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Justin Stebbing, Professor of Biomedical Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University

    SUPERMAO/Shutterstock.com

    New evidence has linked physical activity with improved colon health, underscoring the vital role of exercise in cancer prevention and care.

    The landmark international trial – the Challenge study – showed that structured exercise programmes can dramatically improve survival rates for colon cancer survivors.

    The study was unveiled at the meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology. Each June, cancer specialists from around the world convene in Chicago for the conference where new research is announced that pushes the boundaries of cancer treatment and this year’s conference featured a wealth of exciting discoveries.

    Conducted across six countries and published in the New England Journal of Medicine, the Challenge study tracked 889 patients for several years following chemotherapy. Participants were randomly assigned to one of two groups: one received standard post-treatment care, while the other took part in a three-year coaching programme that included personalised exercise plans and regular check-ins with fitness professionals.

    The results were striking. Those in the exercise group experienced 28% fewer cancer recurrences and 37% fewer deaths.

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    In the programme, people slowly built up how much they exercised, with most choosing to go on brisk 45-minute walks four times a week. Ninety per cent of the people who exercised stayed cancer free for five years, compared with just 74% of those who didn’t.

    This study provides the first strong evidence that exercise not only correlates with better outcomes but directly improves survival rates in cancer patients. While earlier observational studies found a link between being active and better cancer outcomes, this first randomised controlled trial helps show causation, meaning that exercise can directly benefit the survival of cancer patients.

    We don’t know yet if the same goes for other cancers like breast, prostate or lung, but it’s a big step forward.

    The programme’s success hinged on consistent support. Participants met with fitness coaches every two weeks at first, then monthly, which helped them stick to their routines even after treatment ended.

    While minor injuries such as muscle strains were slightly more common among those who exercised (19% compared to 12% in the control group), researchers emphasised that these issues were manageable and far outweighed by the significant survival benefits.

    Potential downsides to exercise?

    In contrast to the encouraging findings on structured exercise, a separate study presented in Chicago has raised questions about the potential downsides of extreme endurance training.

    Researchers tracking marathon runners found a higher rate of polyps (small growths in the colon that can sometimes develop into cancer) compared with the general population. This unexpected finding has sparked a fresh debate about the effect of high-intensity exercise on long-term colon health.

    However, context is needed. The study did not find higher cancer rates among runners, and most of the detected polyps were low risk.

    Several possible explanations have been offered: endurance athletes may simply undergo more frequent screenings, leading to increased detection, or intense exercise might temporarily raise inflammation markers. Crucially, the overall risk of cancer remains lower in active people than in those who are more sedentary, reinforcing the well-established protective benefits of regular exercise.

    Endurance athletes were found to have more polyps than the general population.
    MikeCPhoto/Shutterstock.com

    This apparent contradiction highlights the medical community’s evolving understanding of the “dose” of physical activity. While moderate exercise is consistently linked to significant health benefits, emerging data from endurance athletes suggests that extreme, high-intensity training may place different kinds of stress on the body’s systems.

    Researchers also suggest that factors such as dehydration during long-distance runs, changes in gut function, or the use of certain nutritional supplements common among endurance athletes could play a role in polyp development. These findings don’t diminish the well-documented benefits of physical activity, but instead point to the importance of personalised, balanced health strategies.

    For cancer survivors, the structured exercise study provides a message of practical hope. Participants aimed for the equivalent of about three hours of brisk walking per week, gradually increasing their activity levels over time.

    The programme’s social support was key, with fitness coaches helping participants tailor their routines to match their abilities and recovery needs.

    Exercise is believed to affect key biological processes – including insulin sensitivity, inflammation and immune function – that play important roles in cancer development and progression. Ongoing research is analysing participants’ blood samples to better understand these mechanisms and eventually create personalised exercise “prescriptions” based on an individual’s genetic profile.

    While the findings from marathon runners are less conclusive, they still offer practical takeaways. The research suggests that although vigorous exercise is generally beneficial, high-intensity athletes may face a higher risk of developing polyps and should therefore consider regular colonoscopies as a precaution.

    For the general public, these findings reinforce that combining moderate exercise with timely screenings offers the best protection against colon cancer, a disease that remains the fourth most common worldwide and is alarmingly increasing among young people.

    For both patients and athletes, these findings highlight a central truth: movement matters, but the right approach is crucial. Colon cancer survivors now have proven tools to reduce recurrence through structured exercise, while endurance enthusiasts gain motivation to pair their training with preventative care.

    As science continues unravelling the intricate dance between activity and biology, one message remains clear: whether recovering from illness or chasing personal bests, informed exercise combined with medical guidance is the most reliable path to long-term health.

    Justin Stebbing does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Exercise proves powerful in preventing colon cancer recurrence – new study – https://theconversation.com/exercise-proves-powerful-in-preventing-colon-cancer-recurrence-new-study-257983

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Your WhatsApp messages could get you sacked

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Lord, Lecturer in Human Resource Management and Employment Law, University of Salford

    Prostock-studio/Shutterstock

    It’s late evening and your phone vibrates with some banter from colleagues. You join the conversation and go to bed feeling part of the work community. You then wake up and have a feeling of apprehension as to how the messages will be perceived.

    WhatsApp might have started as a casual messaging app for friends, but it has now firmly become embedded in workplace communication – and increasingly in workplace conflicts, too.

    WhatsApp chats have also been used to corroborate or refute claims in employment tribunals. An employee might claim they were promised a pay rise or flexible hours via WhatsApp, for example. But on the other hand, employers have also used WhatsApp logs to prove misconduct. This evidence has included sharing confidential information.

    In the workplace, WhatsApp chats have replaced many casual real-life conversations. Colleagues create groups to coordinate work, message each other after hours and vent their frustrations in private messages. Although this feels informal, it can leave employees vulnerable.

    But when disputes escalate to legal action, these messages can help judges understand what really happened. Tribunals treat WhatsApp messages like any other document.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    We examined more than 2,000 cases brought to UK employment tribunal’s since 2019 that involved WhatsApp. The findings reveal a surprising range of ways in which these casual chats became evidence.

    WhatsApp conversations have increasingly played a crucial role in misconduct and discrimination disputes, being used as evidence of harassment or inappropriate behaviour. The messages are also cited in unfair dismissal and contract claims, especially where informal work communications and digital records were seen as central to the case.

    In 2018, 48 cases brought to employment tribunals involved WhatsApp messages. By 2024, that had climbed to 562. The cases span a wide range of jurisdictions, but unfair dismissal, contract breaches, harassment and discrimination were dominant. From the cases we examined, several themes were clear.

    1. Removal or exclusion from a WhatsApp group

    In the case of Ms B Djagbo v Women’s Health Dulwich Ltd, the claimant successfully brought a claim for unfavourable treatment due to pregnancy and maternity. This followed a series of incidents that took place after she informed her employer of her pregnancy.

    Several actions made her feel as though her employment was being prematurely ended, including being removed from the workplace WhatsApp group chat. The tribunal awarded her almost £20,000.

    2. Discriminatory messages or harassment via WhatsApp

    In the Mr D Robson v NGP Utilities Ltd case, the claimant is a gay man and brought a complaint of harassment. This included a series of inappropriate and offensive incidents at work, notably, a WhatsApp group message from a colleague.

    The message was part of a wider pattern of jokes targeting gay colleagues. The employment tribunal awarded him more than £36,000.

    3. Termination of employment via WhatsApp

    The case of Miss J Hodkinson v B&R Care Ltd highlights a pregnant care worker who was awarded more than £40,000 in compensation after being unfairly dismissed via WhatsApp. The fact the dismissal was carried out informally and insensitively supported the tribunal’s findings of “procedural and substantive unfairness”.

    4. WhatsApp communications submitted as evidence

    The Mr M D Black v Alain Charles Publishing Ltd tribunal noted that the claimant’s evidence was consistent with WhatsApp message screenshots included in the evidence bundle. As a result, compensation of almost £100,000 was awarded.

    Seized WhatsApp messages can provide an insight into workplace culture.
    Kafka Ibram/Shutterstock

    WhatsApp groups can also offer a window into workplace culture. Tribunals have seen examples of co-workers using WhatsApp to share sexist and racist jokes or to gossip about colleagues.

    With remote and flexible working, these chats illustrate a growing tension between constant connectivity and work burnout.

    The tribunal cases show just how deeply WhatsApp has become part of working life, blurring the line between personal and professional. Colleagues chat the way friends do.

    But when working relationships sour or rules are broken, each of these informal chats carries legal weight. What someone thought was a single throwaway remark in a private conversation can later be dissected as part of a wider body of evidence.

    There have been cases where an employer was ordered to hand over work-related WhatsApp exchanges, and others where an employee’s own messages were used against them.

    It’s a clear lesson. Privacy in digital communication is never guaranteed. Even encrypted messages can become public in a courtroom.

    WhatsApp dos and don’ts

    The volume of references to WhatsApp in tribunal cases frames some key lessons for both employees and employers. In a nutshell, if you wouldn’t write it in a company email or say it in a meeting, don’t put it into WhatsApp.

    Jokes can be misinterpreted and offensive remarks don’t just go away. Many have learned this the hard way.

    Using WhatsApp to share instructions and decisions might seem convenient, but it shouldn’t replace formal process.

    And for employers, it’s time to update communication policies, including guidelines on after-hours messaging, the use of group chats and respecting expectations of inclusivity.

    Banning WhatsApp might not be practical, but setting out expectations is important. Even a policy stating that any work-related communication on personal messaging apps should adhere to the company’s expected code of conduct is a start.

    Many people are unaware that a private chat can reappear as evidence. Knowing that a tasteless joke on WhatsApp could support a harassment claim potentially costing an unlimited fine, or that ignoring a late-night work message might be used as evidence of poor performance, will harden most people to conduct more mindful communication.

    Gordon Fletcher receives funding from InnovateUK.

    Jonathan Lord and Saad Baset do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Your WhatsApp messages could get you sacked – https://theconversation.com/your-whatsapp-messages-could-get-you-sacked-255073

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Lethal humanitarianism: why violence at Gaza aid centres should not come as a surprise

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Irit Katz, Associate Professor of Architecture and Urban Studies, University of Cambridge

    At least 27 Palestinians were reported to have been killed on the morning of June 3 amid chaotic scenes at an aid distribution centre in the southern Gaza Strip. This follows a similar incident on June 1 when around 30 civilians were reportedly killed as people scrambled to get food supplies at an aid centre near Rafah in southern Gaza.

    The Israeli and US governments and Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) – the private contractor backed by Israel and the US to take over aid distribution in Gaza – previously denied reports that Israeli troops had fired on civilians queuing for aid. The US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, criticised what he called “reckless and irresponsible reporting by major US news outlets”.

    After the June 3 incident, however, the Israeli military admitted it had fired shots near a food distribution complex after noticing “a number of suspects moving towards them”. A GHF spokesperson said it was believed that the people had been fired upon “after moving beyond the designated safe corridor and into a closed military zone”.

    The violence at these privately run aid distribution points should come as no surprise, given the situation. For weeks since the Israeli government imposed its aid blockade in early March, the humanitarian crisis in the Strip has become more acute. By April the IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification), a collaboration between numerous intergovernmental and non-governmental organisations, was already reporting that Gaza’s whole population was experiencing critical levels of hunger.

    The aid distribution system put in place by GHF, meanwhile has been widely criticised. On May 25, the day before GHF began operations in Gaza its American director, Jake Wood, resigned. He said he believed the organisation would not be able to fulfil the basic humanitarian principles of “humanity, neutrality, impartiality, and independence”.

    Divide and control

    The GHF’s aid distribution plan is similar in character to a plan published in December 2024 by an organisation of many former high-ranking Israeli military officers, Israel’s Defense and Security Forum (IDSF). The group proposed to take control of aid distribution from the UN agency Unrwa, which was the main organisation overseeing aid distribution until it was banned by Israel earlier this year.

    The IDSF plan proposes that: “Israel will oversee the aid distributed by international organizations, effectively dismantling the distribution networks of UNRWA and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, guided by the principle: ‘The hand that distributes the aid is the hand that controls it’.”

    This would be achieved with the creation of tent cities for internally displaced people (IDP), described as “humanitarian zones”. About 90% of the 2.1 million Palestinians in Gaza are IDPs. The IDSF plan, acknowledging that “extensive built-up areas have been left destroyed, or are no longer inhabitable”, says that “it is currently neither feasible nor recommended that the IDPs return at the conclusion of the war”.

    Under the plan, parts of the Gaza Strip still inhabited by Palestinian civilians, will be divided by a “system of longitudinal and transverse axes”. Each “IDP city” created within these divisions will be managed as a “separate temporary administrative territory” following the principle of “divide and rule”.

    The plan calls for responsibility for humanitarian aid in Gaza to pass “to a Humanitarian Directorate based on IDP cities and biometric certificates”. This is called the “Day After Plan” by the IDSF, designed as a way to control Gaza’s population, while driving a wedge between civilians and Hamas in order to destroy it. This despite the fact that a senior Israeli military commander has said it is impossible to eliminate Hamas.

    The reality on the ground

    The way GHF is currently organising aid distribution fulfils some of the principles of the IDSF plan. It replaces UN aid distribution with a private outfit, backed by both Israel and the US, yet it provides aid through only four sites.

    These are located unevenly in the Gaza Strip, three in a small area southwest of Rafah, and the fourth south of Gaza City, in an area dominated by the Netzarim corridor, which is controlled by the Israeli military.

    People queuing for access to aid reportedly have to walk along a narrow fenced corridor into a larger aid compound. Once inside they are subject to ID checks and eye scans to further control the distribution for aid.

    This has reportedly resulted in long hours of waiting in the heat and led to chaotic scenes were people have broken down fences in a bid to get supplies. Among the people reported to have been killed on June 3 were three children and two women.

    The GHF scheme had already been criticised before the violent incidents by both Palestinians and international aid organisations. The placement of the distribution sites means that people sometimes have to travel considerable distances to receive aid.

    The UN children’s fund spokesperson Jonathan Crick asked: “How is a mother of four children, who has lost her husband, going to carry 20kg back to her makeshift tent, sometimes several kilometres away?”

    As someone who researches urban design, conflict, and displacement, it is clear to me that designing the entire aid distribution system around only four “mega-sites” in limited areas in the Strip leads to the sort of overcrowding and chaos that have made violence all but inevitable.

    In my opinion, in concentrating these sites while extensively demolishing habitable areas in the Strip, Israel is effectively weaponising essential civilian mechanisms against Palestinians. The aid scheme appears to prioritise political and territorial issues over the humanitarian distribution of aid.

    The GHF system enables Israel to further concentrate civilians into makeshift encampments. Here they face inadequate and unhygienic conditions and shelter. These are particularly unsafe for women and children, while also being vulnerable to attacks by the Israeli military.

    Palestinians also fear that the biometric screening will be used by Israel as a weapon of coercive control, rather than as a means to provide humanitarian relief.

    Now people trying to access aid are dying. The international community must urgently put pressure on both sides to agree a ceasefire and on Israel to open Gaza up for a rapid large-scale humanitarian operation. To maintain the current GHF system is to invite further tragedy.

    Irit Katz receives funding from the AHRC.

    – ref. Lethal humanitarianism: why violence at Gaza aid centres should not come as a surprise – https://theconversation.com/lethal-humanitarianism-why-violence-at-gaza-aid-centres-should-not-come-as-a-surprise-257908

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why the federal government must act cautiously on fast-tracking project approvals

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, Canada

    The acceleration of federal approvals for “nation-building projects” was the major theme of this week’s first ministers meeting in Saskatoon. A rush to streamline approvals for resource development and infrastructure projects has been central to the Canadian response to United States President Donald Trump’s profound disruptions to longstanding trade and security relationships.

    At the provincial level, Ontario’s Bill 5 and British Columbia’s Bill 15 also propose to move aggressively to fast-track mining and infrastructure projects.

    These fast-tracking efforts are fuelling debate, particularly in terms of the implications for Indigenous rights and the implicit trade-offs pertaining to the environment and climate change.



    Read more:
    Mark Carney wants to make Canada an energy superpower — but what will be sacrificed for that goal?

    Regulations often a minor factor

    Project review and approval processes in Canada have already been aggressively streamlined over the past decade. The 2019 Federal Impact Assessment Act, also known as Bill C-69, was largely modelled on Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s 2012 Bill C-38 rewrite of the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act.

    It’s important to determine why projects are delayed in the first place. Most move through assessment processes with little delay or controversy. Problems emerge when proposals are poorly designed, face serious technical or economic doubts, raise major environmental, climate or safety concerns, and spark significant social, political or legal conflicts over their costs, benefits and impacts.

    A recent study on mining approvals in B.C., for example, found that far more mines were approved than ever actually developed. The main cause of delays was changing economic conditions. Regulation was found to be only a minor factor.

    While there are always potential ways to improve review processes, the results of previous streamlining efforts suggest the need for caution about the potential for these initiatives to backfire.

    Impact assessment and similar processes emerged as more than a way to accurately assess projects and their risks and benefits. They also provided a framework for managing intense social and political conflicts those projects may generate.

    If these processes are streamlined too much, the conclusions of these assessments may seem illegitimate. There could be a trade-off between clear, certain outcomes and ensuring the approval process is fair and trustworthy.

    Exacerbating conflict

    The Harper government’s Bill C-38 reforms were intended to facilitate the construction of more oil pipelines. In the end, they only escalated the spiralling political and legal conflicts around projects like the Northern Gateway and Energy East pipelines.

    The accompanying Alberta-to-B.C. Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline was only approved after a tortuous process. That culminated in the federal purchase and completion of the pipeline at a cost to taxpayers of $34 billion.



    Read more:
    Why the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion is a bad deal for Canadians — and the world

    A similar process unfolded under Ontario’s 2009 Green Energy Act. The legislation’s aggressive bypassing of local approvals reinforced a backlash against renewable energy projects in rural communities. The end result was a nearly decade-long de facto moratorium on renewable energy development. The situation has only recently eased.

    The political consequences of these efforts at streamlining are noteworthy. The Bill C-38 episode was seen as playing a role in the Harper government’s defeat in 2015. Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty’s loss of his majority government in 2011 was also partly attributed to the rural response to the Green Energy Act.

    Checks and balances

    Aside from the political aspects, it’s important to recognize the value of thorough reviews for projects that are likely to be high-risk, high-cost and high-impact.

    When past reviews have been rushed or cut short, they’ve undermine confidence in the decisions made — especially when even faster processes could increase the risks and costs passed on to taxpayers.

    The Muskrat Falls and Site C hydro projects in Labrador and B.C., respectively, stand as testament to those risks. Both projects ran years behind schedule and billions over budget and continue to face major technical, environmental and economic challenges. Review processes can be important checks on poorly conceived, politically motivated projects.

    It’s also important to think carefully about the long-term economic rationales being presented for projects. Canada is a relatively high-cost fossil fuel producer, making it unlikely to be among the last standing in a decarbonizing world.

    That should raise serious questions about major investments in new fossil fuel export infrastructure. The irony of developing such projects as major wildfires, widely attributed to the impacts of climate change, burn in northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba cannot be overlooked.

    Global markets for commodities like critical minerals are also uncertain and in deep flux.

    The high costs of nuclear projects, as demonstrated by recent experiences in the U.S., the United Kingdom and Europe, also make them unlikely candidates to form the foundation for clean energy superpower status.



    Read more:
    ‘Elbows up’ in Canada means sustainable resource development

    ‘Special economic zones’

    Ontario’s Bill 5 represents the most aggressive streamlining proposal seen so far. The legislation would exempt designated “special economic zones” and even trusted proponents — such as mining companies assigned to lead projects — from all applicable provincial and municipal laws and regulations.

    The province’s approach has raised fundamental questions about the rule of law, democratic governance and Indigenous rights, and jurisdictional boundaries.

    Some commentators have pointed out that these zones are common in authoritarian regimes like China’s, or in jurisdictions in deep economic distress.

    Others have accused Ontario of racing to the bottom in terms of health, safety and environmental standards, respect for the rule of law, Indigenous rights and basic democratic values.

    All of this suggests a need for caution in further streamlining review and approval processes for major projects. These are undertakings with risks and costs that could stretch far into the future and must be properly understood before they proceed.

    Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada

    – ref. Why the federal government must act cautiously on fast-tracking project approvals – https://theconversation.com/why-the-federal-government-must-act-cautiously-on-fast-tracking-project-approvals-257095

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian airfields could derail Russia’s war efforts

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University

    The drone attacks by Ukrainian Operation Spider’s Web forces on Russian airfields have called into question Russia’s supposed military strength.

    Russian authorities have acknowledged damage from the June 1 attacks — an unusual admission that suggests the strikes were probably effective, given Russia’s usual pattern of downplaying or denying the success of Ukrainian operations.

    The operation’s most significant target was the Belaya air base, north of Mongolia. Belaya, like the other bases targeted, is a critical component in the Russian Air Force’s strategic strike capabilities because it houses planes capable of long-range nuclear and conventional strikes.

    It’s also in Irkutsk, approximately 4,500 kilometres from the front lines in Ukraine.



    Read more:
    Ukraine drone strikes on Russian airbase reveal any country is vulnerable to the same kind of attack

    Ukraine’s ability to successfully strike Belaya — an attempted strike at the even more distant Ukrainka air base failed — probably won’t have much of a military impact on the war. But along with successful attacks on other Russian airfields and the strike at the Kerch Bridge in Crimea, Operation Spider Web’s successes could play a strategic role in the conflict.

    These attacks could shift what has become increasingly negative media coverage and public perception about Ukraine’s chances in the war over the last year. In a war of attrition, which the conflict in Ukraine has become, establishing a belief in victory is a pre-condition for success.

    Explosions hit the Kerch Bridge in Russia on June 3, 2025. (The Independent)

    Increased pessimism

    Policymakers and pundits, instead of recognizing their expectations of a Ukrainian victory in 2023 were unrealistic, have often declared that the war is unwinnable for Ukraine.

    This perspective was even more prevalent following United States President Donald Trump’s resumption of power in January 2025. In the Oval Office spat Trump had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in late February, he declared Ukraine did not “have the cards” to defeat Russia.

    This turned out to be false. Ukraine’s army may possess significantly less military hardware and fewer soldiers than Russia’s, but war is often a continuation of politics. Politically, Russia faces several issues that could derail its war efforts.

    Russian vulnerabilities

    Russia’s military capabilities are important to Russian nationalists, who make up Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s core constituency. Russian military forces have advanced along nearly all fronts in Ukraine over the last year.

    These advances, however, have largely been insignificant. Furthermore, they have emphasized Russia’s military weakness, which is an ongoing affront to Russian nationalists.

    Not only have Russian military advances over the last year not changed the war in a strictly military sense, but the pace of advance has been incredibly slow. Over the last year, Russian forces have captured 5,107 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory. This territory represents less than one per cent of Ukraine’s pre-war territory.

    In exchange for what amounts to negligible gains, Russian armed forces have suffered significant casualties.

    Both Russia and Ukraine carefully guard the number of casualties their forces have suffered in the war. The British Ministry of Defence, however, estimates that Russia will have suffered more than a million casualties in the war by the end of this month. The Russian casualty rate is also accelerating, with an estimated 160,000 casualties in the first four months of 2025.

    Russia attempts to compensate for this battlefield devastation in two ways.

    First, it’s isolated Ukraine by manipulating Trump’s desire for political wins and business deals. Russia, in appearing to seek an end to the conflict while offering no concessions, has stoked tensions between Zelenskyy and Trump, where there was little love lost between the two to begin with.

    Second, Russia has increased its attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Large-scale bombing does little to help Russia on the battlefield. The attacks, in fact, put its forces at a disadvantage by redirecting munitions from military targets.

    Attacks on civilians

    The attacks on civilian infrastructure, however, are more about instilling fear in the Ukrainian population and demonstrating American impotence to a Russian audience.

    Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian cities also highlight Russia’s trump card: nuclear weapons. Russia, and specifically former Russian president Dimitry Medvedev, has repeatedly threatened nuclear war in an attempt to dissuade Ukraine’s supporters.

    By bombing Ukrainian cities, albeit with conventional munitions, Russia seeks to demonstrate its ability to deploy even more destructive weapons should the situation call for it.

    These Russian military missteps, combined with a Russian economy that is structurally unsound, means that Russia’s war effort is increasingly fragile.

    Weakening Asian alliances

    Ukraine’s attack on Belaya also signals Russian weakness to its nominal allies in Asia.

    Since the start of hostilities, Russia has relied on the tacit consent of China. This support has taken the form of China purchasing Russian crude oil to maintain the Russian economy and Chinese citizens unofficially fighting for Russia.

    Belaya has been a vital element of Russia’s deterrence strategy in Asia, which has come to rely more heavily on the Russian strategic nuclear threat. The inability of Russia to protect one of its key strategic assets from a Ukrainian drone attack, combined with the weakness of Russian conventional forces in Ukraine, erodes its ability to position itself as a key ally to China.

    In fact, some Russian authorities continue to view China as a major threat.

    At the same time, Operation Spider’s Web gives hope to the Ukrainian people. It may also cause Trump — who prefers to back winners — to ponder whether it’s Putin, not Zelenskyy, who lacks the cards to win the war.

    James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian airfields could derail Russia’s war efforts – https://theconversation.com/how-ukraines-drone-attacks-on-russian-airfields-could-derail-russias-war-efforts-258049

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nigerian children don’t imagine women as political leaders: what shapes their view

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Adebusola Okedele, Senior Lecturer, Political Science, Babcock University

    A new ranking by UN Women and the Inter-Parliamentary Union puts Nigeria 179th out of 185 countries for the percentage of women in the national legislature.

    Women currently make up only 3.9% of seats in the House of Representatives. In the Senate, three of the 108 current members are women. In the executive branch, women head eight of 45 (17.8%) of ministries.

    This absence of women in prominent positions in politics subtly reinforces societal biases and moulds public opinion, which subconsciously excludes women from political leadership.

    We are a group of researchers who have expertise in gender and African politics and childhood political socialisation. We have been researching the political socialisation of children in Nigeria for the past three years.

    Our research in Ogun State reveals that children are internalising what they see on the political stage. We asked children aged 5 to 16 at 12 schools in Ogun State to imagine and draw a leader such as a president, governor, or member of a national or state assembly at work. Only 5% of 981 children drew a woman as a political leader.

    Ninety-two percent of girls drew a man, compared to 98% of boys.

    Why do so few children draw women as political leaders? Children absorb the power dynamics and gender roles they observe in political happenings, shaping their understanding of politics.

    In democracies, a lack of women interested in politics, as well as running for and winning political office, matters. If women are absent in decision-making spaces, their concerns might not be considered. While men can represent women’s interests, women committed to change can draw on their experiences and those of women in their networks to bring new ideas to the table.



    Read more:
    Nigeria’s National Assembly: why adding seats for women isn’t enough

    Women in authority in Nigeria

    We conducted our study in the three senatorial districts of Ogun State, one of Nigeria’s 36 states. In Ogun State, the deputy governor, Noimot Salako-Oyedele, is a woman, and her picture is on many classroom walls.

    The late anti-colonial activist and leader Funmilayo Ransome-Kuti was from Ogun State too. The presence of visible women leaders could encourage some children in the state to imagine and depict women as political leaders. Thus, it is possible that our sample of children were more likely to draw a woman than children in other states.

    Six other states have women deputy governors: Akwa Ibom, Ebonyi, Ekiti, Kaduna, Plateau and Rivers States.

    But women’s representation in state assemblies throughout the country is low. No woman has ever been elected to be a governor in Nigeria.

    In our study, we asked children what jobs they would like to have in the future. In general, boys were more interested in jobs in politics (president, governor, local government chair) than girls were. For the specific job of president or governor, however, girls seemed to be just as interested as boys.

    The children’s response isn’t specific to Nigeria. In a study conducted in 2017 and 2018 in the United States (where 19.3% of members of the House of Representatives at the time were women), only 13% of children drew a woman political leader.



    Read more:
    Nigeria has few women in politics: here’s why, and what to do about it

    Broader forces

    Multiple factors hinder women’s representation in elected offices in Nigeria. These include political party practices that favour the recruitment and selection of men candidates, the high costs of running for office, as outlined in Ayisha Osori’s book Love Does Not Win Elections, and societal biases against women holding positions of political power.

    Deeply entrenched societal biases add to the challenges. Cultural norms assign leadership roles to men and certain religious interpretations restrict women’s public participation.

    The perception that women are more suited for domestic roles, or lack assertiveness, impedes their ability to garner support for political leadership.

    Low numbers of women representatives also suggest there are systemic biases in the democratic electoral process.



    Read more:
    Ghana’s election system keeps women out of parliament. How to change that

    Children pay attention

    Recent research shows that when girls observe women in political power or running for political office, they are more engaged in politics later in life. This suggests that positive exposure to women in politics may have positive effects on girls’ political engagement. Negative exposure could have negative effects.

    Take, for example, the “Natasha-Akpabio case” in Nigeria. Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan alleged that Senate president Godswill Akpabio had sexually harassed her. The Senate president denied the allegation. Akpoti-Uduaghan was suspended from her position by the Senate ethics committee for what it described as misconduct and disregard for the Senate standing orders.

    Experiences like those may influence future generations’ understanding of gender equality in leadership. When young Nigerians observe powerful women facing harassment and retaliation for voicing their concerns, it may undermine the notion that women are equally capable of political authority.

    Girls may internalise the idea that politics is a hostile space for women. For boys, seeing women leaders undermined might reinforce a sense of male dominance.



    Read more:
    AU commission has made a good start on gender equality. But a lot remains to be done

    Policy solutions

    Our finding that children largely see politics as a “man’s world” prompts reflection on societal and political biases. To address the under-representation of women in political leadership positions in Nigeria, it is important to invest in civic education programmes. Children should be helped to understand the significance of equitable political participation from an early age.

    Campaigns should use different media platforms to challenge gender stereotypes in leadership.

    Finally, enacting and enforcing legislated gender quotas across all levels of Nigerian government and within political parties is a crucial step to improve the representation of women in leadership positions.

    Alice J. Kang received funding for the study from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s Congress Fund and Research Council.

    Jill S. Greenlee receives funding from Department of Women’s, Gender, & Sexuality Studies at Brandeis University and the
    Norman Fund at Brandeis University.

    Adebusola Okedele does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Nigerian children don’t imagine women as political leaders: what shapes their view – https://theconversation.com/nigerian-children-dont-imagine-women-as-political-leaders-what-shapes-their-view-256638

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: One green sea turtle can contain the equivalent of 10 ping pong balls in plastic

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Xia (Alice) Zhu, Banting Postdoctoral Fellow, Ocean Sciences, Memorial University of Newfoundland

    Sea turtles can ingest dangerous amounts of plastic. (Shutterstock)

    Thousands to millions of tonnes of plastic enter the ocean annually, but where they end up is poorly understood.

    Scientists have been working to assemble the pieces of the puzzle for years, including estimating the size of the reservoir of plastic on the ocean surface, in the water column and in the deep ocean. However, marine animals are often overlooked.

    All animals can be reservoirs of plastic pollution, but to understand just how much ocean plastic pollution is stored in ocean life, we used sea turtles as a case study.

    Sea turtles ingest plastic debris of a variety of shapes and sizes, which can include pre-production pellets, foam, plastic bags, sheets, fishing gear and food wrappers. Their ingestion of plastic can come with a slew of negative impacts, some of which include starvation, emaciation and damage to the gut lining. Sea turtles can also become entangled in plastic nets and rope.

    Scripps News reports on the impacts of plastic pollution on sea turtles.

    Vulnerable species

    We focused on sea turtles because we know they’re impacted by plastics and are vulnerable to a changing ocean. Six out of the seven species of sea turtles are categorized as either vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature.

    To estimate how much plastic resides within sea turtles, we built a model using data on plastic ingestion in sea turtles and factors we suspected may predict how much plastic a turtle eats. That includes geographical, socio-economic and ecological factors.

    We estimated the size of the global reservoir for female green turtles because we had the most data for that group.

    We estimate that approximately 60 tonnes of plastic debris reside within female green turtles at any given time. This is roughly the equivalent of a garbage truck’s worth of plastic pollution.

    Based on our findings, we also predicted that an individual green turtle can contain up to 26.4 grams of plastic on average, the equivalent mass of 10 ping pong balls.

    Predicting ingestion

    Where a turtle lives matters. We found that sea turtles who forage closer to the equator are more likely to accumulate plastic debris. Furthermore, turtles that forage nearby countries with a lower socio-economic status are likely to eat more plastic, as socio-economic status is related to waste management.

    We also found that species-specific characteristics, including body size and foraging strategy — where and how a turtle identifies and retrieves food — play a role.

    Loggerhead turtles forage in the open ocean for the first seven to 15 years of their lives.
    (Shutterstock)

    For instance, loggerhead turtles are carnivores and forage in the open ocean for the first seven to 15 years of their lives before migrating to nearshore coastal areas.

    In contrast, leatherback turtles spend most of their lives in the open ocean and feed on a diet of soft-bodied prey, including jellyfish and salps. This makes it easy for them to mistake balloons as food.

    Green turtles, on the other hand, primarily feed on algae and sea grasses, spending only three to five years in the open ocean before relocating to shallow coastal areas where they remain for the rest of their lives.

    These different behaviours of sea turtles, along with their body size, influence where and how turtles are exposed to plastic debris and how much plastic can fit inside a turtle’s stomach at any given time.

    Understanding what factors predict plastic ingestion is important for pinpointing which species are most at risk: we found that leatherback turtles have the greatest propensity for ingesting plastic debris.

    Future work

    Sea turtles are impacted by a changing ocean, and our plastic waste is part of that change. The relatively consistent load of plastic in sea turtles raises questions about risk.

    Thousands to millions of tonnes of plastic end up in the ocean annually.
    (Shutterstock)

    Relevant to our study, the next step is to try to understand how the plastic reservoir varies among other species. What is the total amount stored in global marine animals at any one time?

    In addition, could sea turtles and marine animals in general be transporting plastic debris around as they move, essentially acting as conveyor belts of plastic throughout the ocean?

    Call to action

    In order to answer these questions, we need more data for sea turtles and other species. We call for further monitoring of sea turtles to improve future modelling efforts and to inform risk. We also call for further monitoring of other species, and recommend standardized reporting practices and greater data transparency.

    We hope our findings demonstrate the value of monitoring to address knowledge gaps pertaining to the cycling of plastic in the environment. This knowledge, in turn, could help inform a Global Plastics Treaty.

    We also hope our work can inform direct actions to protect sea turtles from the effects of plastics, and reduce the amount of plastic entering the ocean.

    Xia (Alice) Zhu receives funding from the Banting Postdoctoral Fellowship.

    Chelsea Rochman receives funding from NSERC, ECCC, DFO.

    Matthew Mazloff receives funding from NASA, NOAA, NSF, UCSD.

    – ref. One green sea turtle can contain the equivalent of 10 ping pong balls in plastic – https://theconversation.com/one-green-sea-turtle-can-contain-the-equivalent-of-10-ping-pong-balls-in-plastic-256630

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –