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Category: Analysis Assessment

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for July 15, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on July 15, 2025.

    A warning from the future: the risk if NZ gets climate adaptation policy wrong today
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tom Logan, Senior Lecturer Above the Bar, Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury Getty Images New Zealand 2050: On the morning of February 27, the sea surged through the dunes south of the small town of Te Taone, riding on the back of Cyclone Harita’s

    ABC’s and CBS’s settlements with Trump are a dangerous step toward the commander in chief becoming the editor-in-chief
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael J. Socolow, Professor of Communication and Journalism, University of Maine Will settlements by news companies with President Donald Trump turn journalists into puppets? MARHARYTA MARKO/iStock Getty Images Plus It was a surrender widely foreseen. For months, rumors abounded that Paramount would eventually settle the seemingly frivolous

    Is there any hope for the internet?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aarushi Bhandari, Assistant Professor of Sociology, Davidson College Hate and mental illness fester online because love and healing seem to be incompatible with profits. Ihor Lukianenko/iStock via Getty Images In 2001, social theorist bell hooks warned about the dangers of a loveless zeitgeist. In “All About Love:

    Hung parliament still likely outcome of Tasmanian election, with Liberals well ahead of Labor in new poll
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne A new Tasmanian DemosAU poll gives the Liberals a 34.9–24.7 statewide vote lead over Labor, implying the Liberals will win the most seats but be short of

    Luxon and Peters to miss Cook Islands’ 60th Constitution Day celebrations
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist New Zealand will not send top government representation to the Cook Islands for its 60th Constitution Day celebrations in three weeks’ time. Instead, Governor-General Dame Cindy Kiro will represent Aotearoa in Rarotonga. On August 4, Cook Islands will mark 60 years of self-governance in free association with New Zealand.

    Keith Rankin Analysis – Reporting International Migration: Less than the Truth
    Analysis by Keith Rankin. Yesterday I listened to RNZ’s political commentators. The principal topic was an aspect of the recently released May 2025 international migration. Kathryn Ryan starts by reminding us of the “old saying, would the last person to leave New Zealand please turn out the lights” (a saying which has been used in

    Antisemitism plan fails on a number of fronts – a contentious definition of hate is just the start
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Louise Chappell, Scientia Professor, UNSW Sydney The antisemitism strategy presented to the Albanese government has attracted considerable – and wholly justifed – criticism. Produced by Jillian Segal, the special envoy to combat antisemitism, the blueprint falls short in a range of areas essential to good public policy.

    Do I have prostate cancer? Why a simple PSA blood test alone won’t give you the answer
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kevin M. Koo, NHMRC Emerging Leadership Fellow, The University of Queensland Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in Australia, with about 26,000 men diagnosed per year. The majority (more than 85%) are aged over 60. Prostate cancer kills around 3,900 Australians a year. Yet most prostate

    Many fish are social, but pesticides are pushing them apart
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kyle Morrison, PhD Candidate in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, UNSW Sydney Kazakov Maksim, Shutterstock Scientists have detected pesticides in rivers, lakes and oceans worldwide. So what are these pesticides doing to the fish? Long before pesticides reach lethal doses, they can disrupt hormones, impair brain function and

    Almost half of young workers expected to work unpaid overtime, while a quarter aren’t paid compulsory super
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Howe, Associate Dean (Research), Melbourne Law School, The University of Melbourne Anna Kraynova/Shutterstock A young person gets a job, excited to earn their first paycheck. Over time, they realise the hours are long and the payslips small. They are told to stay back to clean up

    Israeli settlers shoot, beat to death 2 Palestinians in latest lynchings
    BEARING WITNESS: By Cole Martin in occupied West Bank Two young Palestinians were shot and beaten to death on their land, and 30 injured, by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank on Saturday. A large group of settlers attacked the rural Palestinian village of Sinjil, in the Ramallah governorate, beating Sayfollah “Saif” Mussalet, 20,

    View from The Hill: Segal’s antisemitism plan gives government controversy, not clarity
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may be rueing what seemed a good idea at the time – the appointment of a special envoy to combat antisemitism (as well as an envoy to combat Islamophobia). Or perhaps Jillian Segal, a former president

    David Robie condemns ‘callous’ health legacy of French, US nuclear bomb tests in Pacific
    Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – A journalist who was on the Rainbow Warrior voyage to Rongelap last night condemned France for its “callous” attack of an environmental ship, saying “we haven’t forgotten, or forgiven this outrage”. David Robie, the author of Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the

    Was the Air India crash caused by pilot error or technical fault? None of the theories holds up – yet
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Guido Carim Junior, Senior Lecturer in Aviation, Griffith University Over the weekend, the Indian Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau released a preliminary report on last month’s crash of Air India flight 171, which killed 260 people, 19 of them on the ground. The aim of a preliminary report

    Confusing for doctors, inequitable for patients: why Australia’s medicinal cannabis system needs urgent reform
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christine Mary Hallinan, Senior Research Fellow, Department of General Practice and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne Vanessa Nunes/Getty Images In 2024 alone, Australia’s medicines regulator, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), authorised at least 979,000 prescription applications for medicinal cannabis

    Treasury warns the government it may not balance the budget or meet its housing targets
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Head, Canberra School of Government, University of Canberra Kokkai Ng/Getty In the runup to each election, federal treasury produces a “blue book” and a “red book”, with advice tailored to the priorities of the two alternative governments. One of these is given to the incoming

    UNESCO grants World Heritage status to Khmer Rouge atrocity sites – paving the way for other sites of conflict
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Hughes, Associate Professor of Geography, The University of Melbourne A series of atrocity sites of the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia have been formally entered onto the World Heritage list, as part of the 47th session of the World Heritage Committee. This is not only important

    How do you stop an AI model turning Nazi? What the Grok drama reveals about AI training
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aaron J. Snoswell, Senior Research Fellow in AI Accountability, Queensland University of Technology Anne Fehres and Luke Conroy & AI4Media, CC BY Grok, the artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot embedded in X (formerly Twitter) and built by Elon Musk’s company xAI, is back in the headlines after calling

    Author condemns ‘callous’ health legacy of French, US nuclear bomb tests in Pacific
    Asia Pacific Report A journalist who was on the Rainbow Warrior voyage to Rongelap last night condemned France for its “callous” attack of an environmental ship, saying “we haven’t forgotten, or forgiven this outrage”. David Robie, the author of Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior, said at the launch

    Washington’s war demands – Australia right to refuse committing to a hypothetical conflict with China over Taiwan
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Blaxland, Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University Andy. LIU/Shutterstock The United States can count on Australia as one of its closest allies. Dating back to the shared experiences in the second world war and the ANZUS Treaty signed in 1951, Australia has steadfastly

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The southern hemisphere is full of birds found nowhere else on Earth. Their importance has been overlooked

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthias Dehling, Researcher, School of Biological Sciences, Monash University

    Matthias Dehling

    The snow petrel, a strikingly white bird with black eyes and a black bill, is one of only three bird species ever observed at the South Pole. In fact, the Antarctic is the only place on Earth where this bird lives.

    It isn’t alone in this. Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic harbour a large number of endemic species, which means these species are only found in one or a few locations in the world.

    In other words, these regions have a high degree of “endemism” – an important metric that tells us where to focus species conservation efforts.

    But our new study shows that the degree of endemism in Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic – and in the southern hemisphere more generally – has been underestimated.

    This is important because areas with a high degree of endemism harbour species with restricted ranges, unique evolutionary history or unique ecological functions. This makes them potentially more vulnerable to disturbances such as climate change, fundamental changes in habitat, or invasive introduced species.

    If the degree of endemism is underestimated, conservation efforts may overlook the sites that are home to irreplaceable birds.

    Biased measurements

    There are two reasons why global patterns of species endemism aren’t well defined. First, the most common method used to calculate endemism tends to give higher values to places with more species overall – this is known as species richness.

    In addition, global studies of diversity often exclude areas that are comparatively species-poor. These areas are mainly in the southern hemisphere – most notably the Antarctic region. When sites that only contain a few species are left out, this influences the estimates of endemism for all other sites.

    An alternative way to calculate endemism takes into account a site’s “complementarity”. This metric considers whether species found at a site are also found elsewhere. With this method, we can find sites that have the highest percentage of species with a restricted range.

    At such highly endemic sites, the local ecosystem relies heavily on species with restricted ranges to function, which makes them all the more irreplaceable.

    The superb lyrebird, known for its skillful vocal imitations, is endemic to southeast Australia.
    Matthias Dehling

    Global hotspots for endemic species

    This is the approach we used in our new study to reassess the endemism of birds worldwide. In our study, we also considered other aspects of bird diversity. We measured endemism with regard to whether sites hold irreplaceable evolutionary history and ecological functions of birds.

    We found that southern-hemisphere communities showed higher rates of local endemism than northern-hemisphere communities across all aspects of diversity. The sub-Antarctic islands and the High Andes, as well as several regions in Australia, Aotearoa New Zealand and southern Africa, stand out as global hotspots of endemism.

    These regions hold many charismatic birds with unique evolutionary histories or unique ecological functions, and these birds are largely restricted to the southern hemisphere.

    Among these are the palaeognaths – the bird lineage that includes kiwis, emus, cassowaries and ostriches. They also include the lyrebirds and the New Zealand wrens, as well as iconic Antarctic species such as penguins and albatrosses.

    Tawaki or Fiordland crested penguin is only found in Aotearoa New Zealand.
    Matthias Dehling

    Not much land, a lot of ocean

    The higher rates of endemism in the southern hemisphere are likely related to the uneven global distribution of landmass. Put simply, there is much more available landmass in the northern hemisphere. As you go further south, landmasses become increasingly separated by vast expanses of ocean.

    Because of the smaller and separated landmasses, species in the southern hemisphere have much smaller ranges than species in the northern hemisphere. Consequently, local species communities share fewer species with each other. This leads to the higher observed endemism in the southern hemisphere.

    The black-breasted buttonquail is a secretive rainforest bird whose range is restricted to a tiny area in south-east Queensland, Australia.
    Matthias Dehling

    A heightened vulnerability

    Our findings suggest that birds in the northern and southern hemisphere might react differently to environmental pressures. Unfortunately, most studies on the impact of climate change to date are from the northern hemisphere.

    In response to climate change in particular, species are expected to shift their ranges towards cooler climates. While northern-hemisphere birds are likely free to shift their ranges across large stretches of uninterrupted landmass, birds in the southern hemisphere are hindered by vast expanses of ocean that separate the different landmasses on which they live.

    For species at the southern tips of South America, Africa or Australia, the nearest major landmass towards the south is Antarctica. But it is unsuitable for most bird species.

    The potentially heightened vulnerability of southern-hemisphere birds suggests they deserve more protection. In addition to known species diversity hotspots that hold large numbers of species, conservation efforts should consider areas that might hold only a small number of species, but irreplaceable ones that aren’t found anywhere else.

    Matthias Dehling receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. The southern hemisphere is full of birds found nowhere else on Earth. Their importance has been overlooked – https://theconversation.com/the-southern-hemisphere-is-full-of-birds-found-nowhere-else-on-earth-their-importance-has-been-overlooked-260828

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The southern hemisphere is full of birds found nowhere else on Earth. Their importance has been overlooked

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthias Dehling, Researcher, School of Biological Sciences, Monash University

    Matthias Dehling

    The snow petrel, a strikingly white bird with black eyes and a black bill, is one of only three bird species ever observed at the South Pole. In fact, the Antarctic is the only place on Earth where this bird lives.

    It isn’t alone in this. Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic harbour a large number of endemic species, which means these species are only found in one or a few locations in the world.

    In other words, these regions have a high degree of “endemism” – an important metric that tells us where to focus species conservation efforts.

    But our new study shows that the degree of endemism in Antarctica and the sub-Antarctic – and in the southern hemisphere more generally – has been underestimated.

    This is important because areas with a high degree of endemism harbour species with restricted ranges, unique evolutionary history or unique ecological functions. This makes them potentially more vulnerable to disturbances such as climate change, fundamental changes in habitat, or invasive introduced species.

    If the degree of endemism is underestimated, conservation efforts may overlook the sites that are home to irreplaceable birds.

    Biased measurements

    There are two reasons why global patterns of species endemism aren’t well defined. First, the most common method used to calculate endemism tends to give higher values to places with more species overall – this is known as species richness.

    In addition, global studies of diversity often exclude areas that are comparatively species-poor. These areas are mainly in the southern hemisphere – most notably the Antarctic region. When sites that only contain a few species are left out, this influences the estimates of endemism for all other sites.

    An alternative way to calculate endemism takes into account a site’s “complementarity”. This metric considers whether species found at a site are also found elsewhere. With this method, we can find sites that have the highest percentage of species with a restricted range.

    At such highly endemic sites, the local ecosystem relies heavily on species with restricted ranges to function, which makes them all the more irreplaceable.

    The superb lyrebird, known for its skillful vocal imitations, is endemic to southeast Australia.
    Matthias Dehling

    Global hotspots for endemic species

    This is the approach we used in our new study to reassess the endemism of birds worldwide. In our study, we also considered other aspects of bird diversity. We measured endemism with regard to whether sites hold irreplaceable evolutionary history and ecological functions of birds.

    We found that southern-hemisphere communities showed higher rates of local endemism than northern-hemisphere communities across all aspects of diversity. The sub-Antarctic islands and the High Andes, as well as several regions in Australia, Aotearoa New Zealand and southern Africa, stand out as global hotspots of endemism.

    These regions hold many charismatic birds with unique evolutionary histories or unique ecological functions, and these birds are largely restricted to the southern hemisphere.

    Among these are the palaeognaths – the bird lineage that includes kiwis, emus, cassowaries and ostriches. They also include the lyrebirds and the New Zealand wrens, as well as iconic Antarctic species such as penguins and albatrosses.

    Tawaki or Fiordland crested penguin is only found in Aotearoa New Zealand.
    Matthias Dehling

    Not much land, a lot of ocean

    The higher rates of endemism in the southern hemisphere are likely related to the uneven global distribution of landmass. Put simply, there is much more available landmass in the northern hemisphere. As you go further south, landmasses become increasingly separated by vast expanses of ocean.

    Because of the smaller and separated landmasses, species in the southern hemisphere have much smaller ranges than species in the northern hemisphere. Consequently, local species communities share fewer species with each other. This leads to the higher observed endemism in the southern hemisphere.

    The black-breasted buttonquail is a secretive rainforest bird whose range is restricted to a tiny area in south-east Queensland, Australia.
    Matthias Dehling

    A heightened vulnerability

    Our findings suggest that birds in the northern and southern hemisphere might react differently to environmental pressures. Unfortunately, most studies on the impact of climate change to date are from the northern hemisphere.

    In response to climate change in particular, species are expected to shift their ranges towards cooler climates. While northern-hemisphere birds are likely free to shift their ranges across large stretches of uninterrupted landmass, birds in the southern hemisphere are hindered by vast expanses of ocean that separate the different landmasses on which they live.

    For species at the southern tips of South America, Africa or Australia, the nearest major landmass towards the south is Antarctica. But it is unsuitable for most bird species.

    The potentially heightened vulnerability of southern-hemisphere birds suggests they deserve more protection. In addition to known species diversity hotspots that hold large numbers of species, conservation efforts should consider areas that might hold only a small number of species, but irreplaceable ones that aren’t found anywhere else.

    Matthias Dehling receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. The southern hemisphere is full of birds found nowhere else on Earth. Their importance has been overlooked – https://theconversation.com/the-southern-hemisphere-is-full-of-birds-found-nowhere-else-on-earth-their-importance-has-been-overlooked-260828

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Is there any hope for the internet?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aarushi Bhandari, Assistant Professor of Sociology, Davidson College

    Hate and mental illness fester online because love and healing seem to be incompatible with profits. Ihor Lukianenko/iStock via Getty Images

    In 2001, social theorist bell hooks warned about the dangers of a loveless zeitgeist. In “All About Love: New Visions,” she lamented “the lack of an ongoing public discussion … about the practice of love in our culture and in our lives.”

    Back then, the internet was at a crossroads. The dot-com crash had bankrupted many early internet companies, and people wondered if the technology was long for this world.

    The doubts were unfounded. In only a few decades, the internet has merged with our bodies as smartphones and mined our personalities via algorithms that know us more intimately than some of our closest friends. It has even constructed a secondary social world.

    Yet as the internet has become more integrated in our daily lives, few would describe it as a place of love, compassion and cooperation. Study after study describe how social media platforms promote alienation and disconnection – in part because many algorithms reward behaviors like trolling, cyberbullying and outrage.

    Is the internet’s place in human history cemented as a harbinger of despair? Or is there still hope for an internet that supports collective flourishing?

    Algorithms and alienation

    I explore these questions in my new book, “Attention and Alienation.”

    In it, I explain how social media companies’ profits depend on users investing their time, creativity and emotions. Whether it’s spending hours filming content for TikTok or a few minutes crafting a thoughtful Reddit comment, participating on these platforms takes work. And it can be exhausting.

    Even passive engagement – like scrolling through feeds and “lurking” in forums – consumes time. It might feel like free entertainment – until people recognize they are the product, with their data being harvested and their emotions being manipulated.

    Blogger, journalist and science fiction writer Cory Doctorow coined the term “enshittification” to describe how experiences on online platforms gradually deteriorate as companies increasingly exploit users’ data and tweak their algorithms to maximize profits.

    For these reasons, much of people’s time spent online involves dealing with toxic interactions or mindlessly doomscrolling, immersed in dopamine-driven feedback loops.

    This cycle is neither an accident nor a novel insight. Hate and mental illness fester in this culture because love and healing seem to be incompatible with profits.

    Care hiding in plain sight

    In his 2009 book “Envisioning Real Utopias,” the late sociologist Erik Olin Wright discusses places in the world that prioritize cooperation, care and egalitarianism.

    Wright mainly focused on offline systems like worker-owned cooperatives. But one of his examples lived on the internet: Wikipedia. He argued that Wikipedia demonstrates the ethos “from each according to ability, to each according to need” – a utopian ideal popularized by Karl Marx.

    Wikipedia still thrives as a nonprofit, volunteer-ran bureaucracy. The website is a form of media that is deeply social, in the literal sense: People voluntarily curate and share knowledge, collectively and democratically, for free. Unlike social media, the rewards are only collective.

    There are no visible likes, comments or rage emojis for participants to hoard and chase. Nobody loses and everyone wins, including the vast majority of people who use Wikipedia without contributing work or money to keep it operational.

    Building a new digital world

    Wikipedia is evidence of care, cooperation and love hiding in plain sight.

    In recent years, there have been more efforts to create nonprofit apps and websites that are committed to protecting user data. Popular examples include Signal, a free and open source instant messaging service, and Proton Mail, an encrypted email service.

    These are all laudable developments. But how can the internet actively promote collective flourishing?

    What if Wikipedia were less the exception, and more the norm?
    Andriy Onufriyenko/Moment via Getty Images

    In “Viral Justice: How We Grow the World We Want,” sociologist Ruha Benjamin points to a way forward. She tells the story of Black TikTok creators who led a successful cultural labor strike in 2021. Many viral TikTok dances had originally been created by Black artists, whose accounts, they claimed, were suppressed by a biased algorithm that favored white influencers.

    TikTok responded to the viral #BlackTikTokStrike movement by formally apologizing and making commitments to better represent and compensate the work of Black creators. These creators demonstrated how social media engagement is work – and that workers have the power to demand equitable conditions and fair pay.

    This landmark strike showed how anyone who uses social media companies that profit off the work, emotions and personal data of their users – whether it’s TikTok, X, Facebook, Instagram or Reddit – can become organized.

    Meanwhile, there are organizations devoted to designing an internet that promotes collective flourishing. Sociologist Firuzeh Shokooh Valle provides examples of worker-owned technology cooperatives in her 2023 book, “In Defense of Solidarity and Pleasure: Feminist Technopolitics in the Global South.” She highlights the Sulá Batsú co-op in Costa Rica, which promotes policies that seek to break the stranglehold that negativity and exploitation have over internet culture.

    “Digital spaces are increasingly powered by hate and discrimination,” the group writes, adding that it hopes to create an online world where “women and people of diverse sexualities and genders are able to access and enjoy a free and open internet to exercise agency and autonomy, build collective power, strengthen movements, and transform power relations.”

    In Los Angeles, there’s Chani, Inc., a technology company that describes itself as “proudly” not funded by venture capitalists. The Chani app blends mindfulness practices and astrology with the goal of simply helping people. The app is not designed for compulsive user engagement, the company never sells user data, and there are no comments sections.

    No comments

    What would social media look like if Wikipedia were the norm instead of an exception?

    To me, a big problem in internet culture is the way people’s humanity is obscured. People are free to speak their minds in text-based public discussion forums, but the words aren’t always attached to someone’s identity. Real people hide behind the anonymity of user names. It isn’t true human interaction.

    In “Attention and Alienation,” I argue that the ability to meet and interact with others online as fully realized, three-dimensional human beings would go a long way toward creating a more empathetic, cooperative internet.

    When I was 8 years old, my parents lived abroad for work. Sometimes we talked on the phone. Often I would cry late into the night, praying for the ability to “see them through the phone.” It felt like a miraculous possibility – like magic.

    I told this story to my students in a moment of shared vulnerability. This was in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, so the class was taking place over videoconferencing. In these online classes, one person talked at a time. Others listened.

    It wasn’t perfect, but I think a better internet would promote this form of discussion – people getting together from across the world to share the fullness of their humanity.

    Efforts like Clubhouse have tapped into this vision by creating voice-based discussion forums. The company, however, has been criticized for predatory data privacy policies.

    What if the next iteration of public social media platforms could build on Clubhouse? What if they brought people together and showcased not just their voices, but also live video feeds of their faces without harvesting their data or promoting conflict and outrage?

    Raised eyebrows. Grins. Frowns. They’re what make humans distinct from increasingly sophisticated large language models and artificial intelligence chatbots like ChatGPT.

    After all, is anything you can’t say while looking at another human being in the eye worth saying in the first place?

    Aarushi Bhandari does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Is there any hope for the internet? – https://theconversation.com/is-there-any-hope-for-the-internet-259251

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ABC’s and CBS’s settlements with Trump are a dangerous step toward the commander in chief becoming the editor-in-chief

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael J. Socolow, Professor of Communication and Journalism, University of Maine

    Will settlements by news companies with President Donald Trump turn journalists into puppets? MARHARYTA MARKO/iStock Getty Images Plus

    It was a surrender widely foreseen. For months, rumors abounded that Paramount would eventually settle the seemingly frivolous lawsuit brought by President Donald Trump concerning editorial decisions in the production of a CBS interview with Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in 2024.

    On July 2, 2025, those rumors proved true: The settlement between Paramount and Trump’s legal team resulted in CBS’s parent company agreeing to pay $16 million to the future Donald Trump Library – the $16 million included Trump’s legal fees – in exchange for ending the lawsuit. Despite the opinion of many media law scholars and practicing attorneys who considered the lawsuit meritless, Shari Redstone, the largest shareholder of Paramount, yielded to Trump.

    Redstone had been trying to sell Paramount to Skydance Media since July 2024, but the transaction was delayed by issues involving government approval.

    Specifically, when the Trump administration assumed power in January 2025, the new Federal Communications Commission had no legal obligation to facilitate, without scrutiny, the transfer of the CBS network’s broadcast licenses for its owned-and-operated TV stations to new ownership.

    The FCC, under newly installed Republican Chairman Brendan Carr, was fully aware of the issues in the legal conflict between Trump and CBS at the time Paramount needed FCC approval for the license transfers. Without a settlement, the Paramount-Skydance deal remained in jeopardy.

    Until it wasn’t.

    At that point, Paramount joined Disney in implicitly apologizing for journalism produced by their TV news divisions.

    Earlier in 2025, Disney had settled a different Trump lawsuit with ABC News in exchange for a $15 million donation to the future Trump Library. That lawsuit involved a dispute over the wording of the actions for which Trump was found liable in a civil lawsuit brought by E. Jean Carroll.

    GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump said the CBS interview with Democratic nominee Kamala Harris was ‘fraudulent interference with an election.’

    It’s not certain what the ABC and CBS settlements portend, but many are predicting they will produce a “chilling effect” within the network news divisions. Such an outcome would arise from fear of new litigation, and it would install a form of internal self-censorship that would influence network journalists when deciding whether the pursuit of investigative stories involving the Trump administration would be worth the risk.

    Trump has apparently succeeded where earlier presidents failed.

    Presidential pressure

    From Jimmy Carter trying to get CBS anchor Walter Cronkite to stop ending his evening newscasts with the number of days American hostages were being held in Iran to Richard Nixon’s administration threatening the broadcast licenses of The Washington Post’s TV stations to weaken Watergate reporting, previous presidents sought to apply editorial pressure on broadcast journalists.

    But in the cases of Carter and Nixon, it didn’t work. The broadcast networks’ focus on both Watergate and the Iran hostage crisis remained unrelenting.

    Nor were Nixon and Carter the first presidents seeking to influence, and possibly control, network news.

    President Lyndon Johnson, who owned local TV and radio stations in Austin, Texas, regularly complained to his old friend, CBS President Frank Stanton, about what he perceived as biased TV coverage. Johnson was so furious with the CBS and NBC reporting from Vietnam, he once argued that their newscasts seemed “controlled by the Vietcong.”

    Yet none of these earlier presidents won millions from the corporations that aired ethical news reporting in the public interest.

    Before Trump, these conflicts mostly occurred backstage and informally, allowing the broadcasters to sidestep the damage to their credibility should any surrender to White House administrations be made public. In a “Reporter’s Notebook” on the CBS Evening News the night of the Trump settlement, anchor John Dickerson summarized the new dilemma succinctly: “Can you hold power to account when you’ve paid it millions? Can an audience trust you when it thinks you’ve traded away that trust?”

    “The audience will decide that,” Dickerson continued, concluding: “Our job is to show up to honor what we witness on behalf of the people we witness it for.”

    During the Iran hostage crisis, CBS News anchor Walter Cronkite ended every broadcast with the number of days the hostages had been held captive.

    Holding power to account

    There’s an adage in TV news: “You’re only as good as your last show.”

    Soon, Skydance Media will assume control over the Paramount properties, and the new CBS will be on the airwaves.

    When the licenses for KCBS in Los Angeles, WCBS in New York and the other CBS-owned-and-operated stations are transferred, we’ll learn the long-term legacy of corporate capitulation. But for now, it remains too early to judge tomorrow’s newscasts.

    As a scholar of broadcast journalism and a former broadcast journalist, I recommend evaluating programs like “60 Minutes” and the “CBS Evening News” on the record they will compile over the next three years – and the record they compiled over the past 50. The same goes for “ABC World News Tonight” and other ABC News programs.

    A major complicating factor for the Paramount-Skydance deal was the fact that “60 Minutes” has, over the past six months, broken major scoops embarrassing to the Trump administration, which led to additional scrutiny by its corporate ownership. Judged by its reporting in the first half of 2025, “60 Minutes” has upheld its record of critical and independent reporting in the public interest.

    If audience members want to see ethical, independent and professional broadcast journalism that holds power to account, then it’s the audience’s responsibility to tune it in. The only way to learn the consequences of these settlements is by watching future programming rather than dismissing it beforehand.

    The journalists working at ABC News and CBS News understand the legacy of their organizations, and they are also aware of how their owners have cast suspicion on the news divisions’ professionalism and credibility. As Dickerson asserted, they plan to “show up” regardless of the stain, and I’d bet they’re more motivated to redeem their reputations than we expect.

    I don’t think reporters, editors and producers plan to let Donald Trump become their editor-in-chief over the next three years. But we’ll only know by watching.

    Michael Socolow’s father, Sanford Socolow, worked for CBS News from 1956 to 1988.

    – ref. ABC’s and CBS’s settlements with Trump are a dangerous step toward the commander in chief becoming the editor-in-chief – https://theconversation.com/abcs-and-cbss-settlements-with-trump-are-a-dangerous-step-toward-the-commander-in-chief-becoming-the-editor-in-chief-261006

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A warning from the future: the risk if NZ gets climate adaptation policy wrong today

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tom Logan, Senior Lecturer Above the Bar, Civil and Natural Resources Engineering, University of Canterbury

    Getty Images

    New Zealand 2050: On the morning of February 27, the sea surged through the dunes south of the small town of Te Taone, riding on the back of Cyclone Harita’s swollen rivers and 200mm of overnight rainfall.

    By mid-morning, floodwaters had engulfed entire streets. Power was out. Roads were underwater. Emergency services responded swiftly, coordinating evacuations and establishing shelters.

    But for many residents, the realisation came days later: the help they expected after the water receded – support to rebuild, relocate or recover – wasn’t coming.

    “We lost everything,” says Mere Rākete, a solo mother of three, standing outside her home, now uninhabitable. “I rang the council, the government helpline, even the insurance company. They all said I’m not covered.”

    Mere lives in a suburb long identified as “high risk” under national climate risk maps. She didn’t stay there because she ignored the risk. She stayed because she had no viable alternative.

    “They say we had a choice. But when houses here were $400,000 and anything safer was $700,000, what choice is that?”

    No more buyouts

    Although this story is fictitious, it describes a plausible future based on how New Zealand’s draft climate adaptation framework could play out. It reflects the likely consequences of policy decisions that focus narrowly on financial exposure.

    Last week’s recommendations from the Ministry for the Environment’s Independent Reference Group rightly called for urgent and improved risk information. But they focused narrowly on direct risk to property and infrastructure.

    In particular, the group proposed that beyond 2045 the government should not buy out property owners after climate-related disasters (or those at high risk of future events).

    Responding to the recommendations last week, climate policy analyst Jonathan Boston wrote that ruling out property buyouts “is philosophically misguided, morally questionable, administratively inept, and politically naïve”.

    But it appears the government shares the reference group’s view. Addressing the current flooding disaster in the Tasman district, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said, “In principle, the government won’t be able to keep bailing out people in this way.”

    Beyond the specifics of financial compensation, however, lie the cascading and systemic risks that follow a major weather event. In reality, the impacts do not stop at the property boundary.

    When a family is displaced, or even fears displacement, the consequences ripple outward: schooling is disrupted, jobs are lost, mental health declines, community networks fragment and local economies suffer.

    Research shows how the after-effects of a disaster domino through interconnected systems, affecting health, housing, labour markets and social cohesion.

    A policy decades in the making

    Back to the future: our fictional town of Te Taone sits in a floodplain identified decades ago. By the 2040s, insurance had become unaffordable. New development slowed but many families, especially those on lower incomes, remained, with few relocation options.

    The adaptation framework proposed in 2025, based on a “beneficiary pays” model, created a 20-year transition period that ended in 2045. After that, residents in high-risk areas became ineligible for buyouts or standard recovery funding.

    Future government investment was limited to Crown-owned assets or projects with “national benefit”. Restoration of local infrastructure such as roads and power lines would depend on whether councils or ratepayers could pay.

    Today, parts of Te Taone remain cut off. Power is still out in some areas. The school has relocated inland. Local shops have closed. Many homes are damaged, waterlogged, or destroyed, and some families are now living in tents.

    “It’s not that we weren’t warned,” says a local community worker. “It’s just that we couldn’t afford to do anything but live with the risk and hope for the best.”

    Te Taone’s experience is now raising deeper concerns that Aotearoa New Zealand’s climate adaptation framework may be entrenching a form of “climate redlining”. Those with the means can move to escape risk, while others are left behind to bear it.

    Adaptation or abandonment?

    Māori communities are especially affected. Parts of the floodplain include ancestral land, some communally owned, some leased by whānau who cannot easily relocate. In many cases, this land was only recently returned from the Crown, after years of land court proceedings or Treaty settlements.

    The prospect of abandoning it again, without coordinated support, echoes earlier waves of institutional neglect. Mere Rākete is now considering joining a class action, one of several reportedly forming across the country.

    Residents are challenging the government or local councils over a failure in their duty of care by allowing homes to be built, sold or inhabited in known risk zones without clear and enforceable warnings or adequate alternatives.

    Meanwhile, adaptation experts are calling for a reset: a national compensation framework with clear eligibility rules, long-term investment in affordable housing beyond hazard-prone areas.

    Above all, they argue, government policy based on a climate adaptation framework developed 25 years ago has not reduced exposure to risk. Instead, it has redistributed it from those who could leave to those who couldn’t.

    In the meantime, the remaining residents of Te Taone wait for the next cyclone and wonder whether, next time, anyone will help.

    Planning with people in mind

    Our imagined future scenario can be avoided if governments take a broader view of adaptation. Treating climate risk as an individual responsibility may reduce short-term government liability. But it will not reduce long-term social and fiscal liability.

    The risk of failing to act systemically is that the country pays in other ways – in fractured communities, rising inequity and preventable harm.

    Adaptation to climate change has to be about more than limiting the upfront costs of buyouts or infrastructure repairs. Ignoring the wider impacts will only shift the burden and increase it over time.

    Real economic and community resilience means planning with people in mind, investing early and making sure no one is left behind. That work must begin now.

    Tom Logan owns shares in Urban Intelligence. He receives funding from the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment and the Royal Society of NZ.

    Paula Blackett works part time for Urban Intelligence. She receives research funding from the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment and undertakes consulting work regarding climate risk and adaptation.

    – ref. A warning from the future: the risk if NZ gets climate adaptation policy wrong today – https://theconversation.com/a-warning-from-the-future-the-risk-if-nz-gets-climate-adaptation-policy-wrong-today-260912

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Luxon and Peters to miss Cook Islands’ 60th Constitution Day celebrations

    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist

    New Zealand will not send top government representation to the Cook Islands for its 60th Constitution Day celebrations in three weeks’ time.

    Instead, Governor-General Dame Cindy Kiro will represent Aotearoa in Rarotonga.

    On August 4, Cook Islands will mark 60 years of self-governance in free association with New Zealand.

    It comes at a turbulent time in the relationship

    New Zealand paused $18.2 million in development assistance funding to the Cook Islands in June after its government signed several agreements with China in February.

    At the time, a spokesperson for Foreign Minister Winston Peters said the pause was because the Cook Islands did not consult with Aotearoa over the China deals and failed to ensure shared interests were not put at risk.

    Peters and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will not attend the celebrations.

    Ten years ago, former Prime Minister Sir John Key attended the celebrations that marked 50 years of Cook Islands being in free association with New Zealand.

    Officials from the Cook Islands and New Zealand have been meeting to try and restore the relationship.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Luxon and Peters to miss Cook Islands’ 60th Constitution Day celebrations

    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist

    New Zealand will not send top government representation to the Cook Islands for its 60th Constitution Day celebrations in three weeks’ time.

    Instead, Governor-General Dame Cindy Kiro will represent Aotearoa in Rarotonga.

    On August 4, Cook Islands will mark 60 years of self-governance in free association with New Zealand.

    It comes at a turbulent time in the relationship

    New Zealand paused $18.2 million in development assistance funding to the Cook Islands in June after its government signed several agreements with China in February.

    At the time, a spokesperson for Foreign Minister Winston Peters said the pause was because the Cook Islands did not consult with Aotearoa over the China deals and failed to ensure shared interests were not put at risk.

    Peters and New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will not attend the celebrations.

    Ten years ago, former Prime Minister Sir John Key attended the celebrations that marked 50 years of Cook Islands being in free association with New Zealand.

    Officials from the Cook Islands and New Zealand have been meeting to try and restore the relationship.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Hung parliament still likely outcome of Tasmanian election, with Liberals well ahead of Labor in new poll

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    A new Tasmanian DemosAU poll gives the Liberals a 34.9–24.7 statewide vote lead over Labor, implying the Liberals will win the most seats but be short of a majority at this Saturday’s election. I also cover the Coalition’s vote was inefficiently distributed at the federal election, as well as US and UK politics.

    The Tasmanian state election will be held this Saturday. Tasmania uses the proportional Hare-Clark system for its lower house elections. The five Tasmanian seats used at federal elections each have seven members, for a total of 35 MPs. A quota for election is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%.

    A DemosAU poll for Pulse Tasmania, conducted July 6–10 from a sample of 3,421, gave the Liberals 34.9% of the vote (up 0.9 since the June 19–26 DemosAU poll), Labor 24.7% (down 2.6), the Greens 15.6% (up 0.5), the Nationals 2.7%, the Shooters 1.8% and independents 20.3% (up 1.0).

    The Nationals are only contesting Bass, Braddon and Lyons, and the poll would not have included them in the other two electorates of Clark and Franklin, so the Nationals’ vote in the electorates they are contesting would be higher than their statewide vote.

    With a total sample of over 3,400, the sample size per electorate would be over 680. Using the results in individual electorates, this poll has the Liberals on a total of 13–14 seats out of 35, Labor on 9–10, the Greens on 6–7, independents on 4–6 and both the Nationals and Shooters either winning zero or one seat.

    If the election results reflect this poll, the Liberals would easily be the largest party, but they would not win the 18 seats needed for a majority. There would probably be a majority for Labor, the Greens and left-wing independents, but Labor did not attempt to form government in a similar situation after the March 2024 election.

    It’s been 11 years since Labor last held government in Tasmania, with the Labor/Greens government at that time widely blamed for Labor’s heavy defeat in the March 2014 election. But with the continuing decline of the major parties, Labor may have to reach an agreement with the Greens if they want to form government again in Tasmania.

    Labor and the Liberals have both supported construction of a new AFL stadium. I believe this partly explains the drop in Labor’s vote, as many on the left would oppose this stadium. Labor’s refusal to attempt to form government after the March 2024 election probably also contributed to its low vote.

    Voters may also be blaming Labor for this early election, just 16 months after the previous Tasmanian election. This election is just over two months after the federal election.

    Federal election: Coalition’s vote inefficiently distributed

    Analyst Kevin Bonham has a pendulum of House of Representatives seats after the results of the May 3 federal election. There are likely to be federal redistributions from July 2026 in some states, so this won’t be the pendulum used at the next federal election.

    Labor won 94 of the 150 seats, the Coalition 43 and all Others 13, from a two-party vote of 55.2–44.8 to Labor. Assuming the Others are unchanged, Labor would need to lose 19 seats to drop below the 76 needed for a majority. On the pendulum, this occurs when the seat of Whitlam falls, but Labor won Whitlam by 56.3–43.7, more than 1% higher than their national vote.

    This means that, using a uniform swing on the actual results, Labor would have won a majority even if they had lost the national two-party vote by 51.0–49.0, despite 13 Other seats.

    Despite the electoral hammering, the Coalition retained many regional seats by large margins. This contributed to an inefficiently distributed vote. With voters in the cities making up a majority of all Australian voters, the Coalition can’t win by appealing just to voters in the regions.

    The Coalition would be the largest party if they won 26 seats from Labor. This happens when the Coalition gains Braddon, which Labor won by 57.2–42.8, so the Coalition would need a 51.9–48.1 national two-party margin. For a Coalition majority, they would need 33 gains, and need a 53.7–46.3 national two-party win.

    US and UK politics

    I wrote for The Poll Bludger on Saturday that United States President Donald Trump’s net approval was nearly unchanged at -6.7 after the passage of the “big beautiful bill” through Congress. I also covered Elon Musk’s new party and New York City mayoral general election polls.

    In the United Kingdom, a Labour MP has defected to a potential Jeremy Corbyn-led party. The far-right Reform has led Labour in UK national polls since the early May local elections. In a House of Commons vote on a welfare reform bill, 49 Labour MPs rebelled.

    Two Queensland poll give LNP big leads

    A Queensland state DemosAU poll, conducted July 4–9 from a sample of 1,027, gave the Liberal National Party a 55–45 lead (53.8–46.2 to the LNP at the October 2024 election). The Poll Bludger said this was a one-point gain for the LNP since a February DemosAU poll.

    Primary votes were 40% LNP (steady), 28% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (up one), 12% One Nation (up two) and 7% for all Others (down one). On the recent Queensland state budget, 24% thought it would be good for the Queensland economy, 19% bad and 57% were unsure. By 43–26, respondents thought Labor would not have delivered a better budget.

    A Queensland state Redbridge poll gave the LNP a 56–44 lead. Primary votes were 43% LNP, 29% Labor, 11% Greens and 17% for all Others (there was no One Nation breakdown).

    Queensland was the only state the Coalition won at the federal election, though only by 50.6–49.4. The state LNP is still benefiting from a honeymoon after ousting Labor at last year’s election.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Hung parliament still likely outcome of Tasmanian election, with Liberals well ahead of Labor in new poll – https://theconversation.com/hung-parliament-still-likely-outcome-of-tasmanian-election-with-liberals-well-ahead-of-labor-in-new-poll-261073

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Hung parliament still likely outcome of Tasmanian election, with Liberals well ahead of Labor in new poll

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    A new Tasmanian DemosAU poll gives the Liberals a 34.9–24.7 statewide vote lead over Labor, implying the Liberals will win the most seats but be short of a majority at this Saturday’s election. I also cover the Coalition’s vote was inefficiently distributed at the federal election, as well as US and UK politics.

    The Tasmanian state election will be held this Saturday. Tasmania uses the proportional Hare-Clark system for its lower house elections. The five Tasmanian seats used at federal elections each have seven members, for a total of 35 MPs. A quota for election is one-eighth of the vote, or 12.5%.

    A DemosAU poll for Pulse Tasmania, conducted July 6–10 from a sample of 3,421, gave the Liberals 34.9% of the vote (up 0.9 since the June 19–26 DemosAU poll), Labor 24.7% (down 2.6), the Greens 15.6% (up 0.5), the Nationals 2.7%, the Shooters 1.8% and independents 20.3% (up 1.0).

    The Nationals are only contesting Bass, Braddon and Lyons, and the poll would not have included them in the other two electorates of Clark and Franklin, so the Nationals’ vote in the electorates they are contesting would be higher than their statewide vote.

    With a total sample of over 3,400, the sample size per electorate would be over 680. Using the results in individual electorates, this poll has the Liberals on a total of 13–14 seats out of 35, Labor on 9–10, the Greens on 6–7, independents on 4–6 and both the Nationals and Shooters either winning zero or one seat.

    If the election results reflect this poll, the Liberals would easily be the largest party, but they would not win the 18 seats needed for a majority. There would probably be a majority for Labor, the Greens and left-wing independents, but Labor did not attempt to form government in a similar situation after the March 2024 election.

    It’s been 11 years since Labor last held government in Tasmania, with the Labor/Greens government at that time widely blamed for Labor’s heavy defeat in the March 2014 election. But with the continuing decline of the major parties, Labor may have to reach an agreement with the Greens if they want to form government again in Tasmania.

    Labor and the Liberals have both supported construction of a new AFL stadium. I believe this partly explains the drop in Labor’s vote, as many on the left would oppose this stadium. Labor’s refusal to attempt to form government after the March 2024 election probably also contributed to its low vote.

    Voters may also be blaming Labor for this early election, just 16 months after the previous Tasmanian election. This election is just over two months after the federal election.

    Federal election: Coalition’s vote inefficiently distributed

    Analyst Kevin Bonham has a pendulum of House of Representatives seats after the results of the May 3 federal election. There are likely to be federal redistributions from July 2026 in some states, so this won’t be the pendulum used at the next federal election.

    Labor won 94 of the 150 seats, the Coalition 43 and all Others 13, from a two-party vote of 55.2–44.8 to Labor. Assuming the Others are unchanged, Labor would need to lose 19 seats to drop below the 76 needed for a majority. On the pendulum, this occurs when the seat of Whitlam falls, but Labor won Whitlam by 56.3–43.7, more than 1% higher than their national vote.

    This means that, using a uniform swing on the actual results, Labor would have won a majority even if they had lost the national two-party vote by 51.0–49.0, despite 13 Other seats.

    Despite the electoral hammering, the Coalition retained many regional seats by large margins. This contributed to an inefficiently distributed vote. With voters in the cities making up a majority of all Australian voters, the Coalition can’t win by appealing just to voters in the regions.

    The Coalition would be the largest party if they won 26 seats from Labor. This happens when the Coalition gains Braddon, which Labor won by 57.2–42.8, so the Coalition would need a 51.9–48.1 national two-party margin. For a Coalition majority, they would need 33 gains, and need a 53.7–46.3 national two-party win.

    US and UK politics

    I wrote for The Poll Bludger on Saturday that United States President Donald Trump’s net approval was nearly unchanged at -6.7 after the passage of the “big beautiful bill” through Congress. I also covered Elon Musk’s new party and New York City mayoral general election polls.

    In the United Kingdom, a Labour MP has defected to a potential Jeremy Corbyn-led party. The far-right Reform has led Labour in UK national polls since the early May local elections. In a House of Commons vote on a welfare reform bill, 49 Labour MPs rebelled.

    Two Queensland poll give LNP big leads

    A Queensland state DemosAU poll, conducted July 4–9 from a sample of 1,027, gave the Liberal National Party a 55–45 lead (53.8–46.2 to the LNP at the October 2024 election). The Poll Bludger said this was a one-point gain for the LNP since a February DemosAU poll.

    Primary votes were 40% LNP (steady), 28% Labor (down two), 13% Greens (up one), 12% One Nation (up two) and 7% for all Others (down one). On the recent Queensland state budget, 24% thought it would be good for the Queensland economy, 19% bad and 57% were unsure. By 43–26, respondents thought Labor would not have delivered a better budget.

    A Queensland state Redbridge poll gave the LNP a 56–44 lead. Primary votes were 43% LNP, 29% Labor, 11% Greens and 17% for all Others (there was no One Nation breakdown).

    Queensland was the only state the Coalition won at the federal election, though only by 50.6–49.4. The state LNP is still benefiting from a honeymoon after ousting Labor at last year’s election.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Hung parliament still likely outcome of Tasmanian election, with Liberals well ahead of Labor in new poll – https://theconversation.com/hung-parliament-still-likely-outcome-of-tasmanian-election-with-liberals-well-ahead-of-labor-in-new-poll-261073

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Many fish are social, but pesticides are pushing them apart

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kyle Morrison, PhD Candidate in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, UNSW Sydney

    Kazakov Maksim, Shutterstock

    Scientists have detected pesticides in rivers, lakes and oceans worldwide. So what are these pesticides doing to the fish?

    Long before pesticides reach lethal doses, they can disrupt hormones, impair brain function and change fish behaviour. Many of these behaviours are essential for healthy ecosystems.

    In a new study, my colleagues and I found that pesticides affect many different behaviours in fish. Overall, the chemical pesticides make fish less sociable and interactive. They spend less time gathering in groups, become less protective of their territory, and make fewer attempts to mate.

    Imagine the ocean without the vibrant schools of fish we’ve come to love – only isolated swimmers drifting about. Quietly, ecosystems begin to unravel, long before mass die-offs hit the news.

    Healthy reef ecosystems feature fish swimming together and socialising.
    Mike Workman, Shutterstock

    Fish are living and dying in polluted water

    Australia is a major producer and user of pesticides, with more than 11,000 approved chemical products routinely used in agricultural and domestic settings. Remarkably, some of these chemicals remain approved in Australia despite being banned in other regions such as the European Union due to safety concerns.

    When a tractor or plane sprays pesticides onto crops, it creates a mist of chemicals in the air to kill crop pests. After heavy rain, these chemicals can flow into roadside drains, filter through soil, and slowly move into rivers, lakes and oceans.

    Fish swim in this diluted chemical mixture. They can absorb pesticides through their gills or eat contaminated prey.

    At high concentrations, mass fish deaths can result, such as those repeatedly observed in the Menindee Lakes. However, doses in the wild often aren’t lethal and more subtle effects can occur. Scientists call these “sub-lethal” effects.

    One commonly investigated sub-lethal effect is a change in behaviour – in other words, a change in the way a fish interacts with its surrounding environment.

    Our previous research has found most experiments have looked at the impacts on fish in isolation, measuring things such as how far or how fast they swim when pesticides are present.

    But fish aren’t solitary — they form groups, defend territory and find mates. These behaviours keep aquatic ecosystems stable. So this time we studied how pesticides affect these crucial social behaviours.

    Pesticide exposure makes fish less social

    Our study extracted and analysed data from 37 experiments conducted around the world. Together, these tested the impacts of 31 different pesticides on the social behaviour of 11 different fish species.

    The evidence suggests pesticides make fish less social, and this finding is consistent across species. Courtship was the most severely impacted behaviour – the process fish use to find and attract mates. This is particularly alarming because successful courtship is essential for healthy fish populations and ecosystem stability.

    Next, we found pesticides such as the herbicide glyphosate, which can disrupt brain function and hormone levels had the strongest impacts on fish social behaviours. This raises important questions about how brain function and hormones drive fish social behaviour, which could be tested by scientists in the future.

    For example, scientists could test how much a change in testosterone relates to a change in territory defence. Looking at these relationships between what’s going on inside the body mechanisms and outward behaviour will help us better understand the complex impacts of pesticides.

    We also identified gaps in the current studies. Most existing studies focus on a limited number of easy-to-study “model species” such as zebrafish, medaka and guppies. They also often use pesticide dosages and durations that may not reflect real-world realities.

    Addressing these gaps by including a range of species and environmentally relevant dosages is crucial to understanding how pesticides affect fish in the wild.

    One of the experiments in our study involved convict surgeonfish, which gather in large groups or ‘shoals’.
    Damsea, Shutterstock

    Behaviour is a blind spot in regulation

    Regulatory authorities should begin to recognise behaviour as a reliable and important indicator of pesticide safety. This can help them catch pesticide pollution early, before mass deaths occur.

    Scientists play a crucial role too. By following the same methods, scientists can produce comparable results. A standardised method then provides regulators the evidence needed to confidently assess pesticide risks.

    Together, regulatory authorities and scientists can find a way to use behavioural studies to help inform policy decisions. This will help to prevent mass deaths and catch pesticide impacts early on.

    Leave no stone unturned in restoring our waters

    Rivers, lakes, oceans and reefs are bearing the brunt of an ever-growing human footprint.

    So far, much of the spotlight has focused on reducing carbon emissions and managing overfishing — and rightly so. But there’s another, quieter threat drifting beneath the surface: the chemicals we use.

    Pesticides used on farms and in gardens are being detected everywhere, even iconic ecosystems such as the Great Barrier Reef. As we have shown, these pesticides can have disturbing effects even at low concentrations.

    Now is the time to cut pesticide use and reduce runoff. Through switching to less toxic chemicals and introducing better regulations, we can reduce the damage. If we act with urgency, we can limit the impacts pesticides have on our planet.

    Kyle Morrison does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Many fish are social, but pesticides are pushing them apart – https://theconversation.com/many-fish-are-social-but-pesticides-are-pushing-them-apart-256230

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Do I have prostate cancer? Why a simple PSA blood test alone won’t give you the answer

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kevin M. Koo, NHMRC Emerging Leadership Fellow, The University of Queensland

    Prostate cancer is the most common cancer in Australia, with about 26,000 men diagnosed per year. The majority (more than 85%) are aged over 60.

    Prostate cancer kills around 3,900 Australians a year. Yet most prostate cancers progress very slowly and many men die “with” and not “from” prostate cancer.

    Prostate cancer is currently detected with a blood test. This measures the amounts of prostate specific antigen (PSA) in the blood, a protein produced by the prostate gland.

    But while an elevated PSA can indicate prostate cancer, other non-cancerous conditions, such as prostate enlargement or inflammation, can also increase PSA levels.

    New draft guidelines aim to provide clearer recommendations about the role PSA tests should play in detecting prostate cancer.

    Life-saving treatment vs harmful overdiagnosis

    Early detection of prostate cancer by PSA testing is important. It allows for timely treatments such as prostate removal surgery, radiation or hormonal therapy.

    But despite their effectiveness, these treatments can cause problems such as erectile dysfunction. Urinary incontinence issues occur in up to 14% of patients.

    Therefore, if the prostate cancer is considered low-risk and has not spread outside the prostate, the clinician may recommend “active surveillance” to closely monitor the cancer for signs of progression.

    If the low-risk prostate cancer doesn’t progress, treatment and its associated side effects can be delayed or avoided.



    Read more:
    Treatment can do more harm than good for prostate cancer − why active surveillance may be a better option for some

    The controversy around PSA testing is it can over-diagnose low-risk prostate cancers that would never become life-threatening.

    PSA tests may also give false positive results when someone doesn’t have cancer.

    Such scenarios cause harm to men who are over-treated for prostate cancer solely based on elevated PSA levels.

    In a decades-long clinical study involving 182,000 men, PSA testing reduced prostate cancer deaths by 20% compared to men who didn’t undergo testing.

    But a trade-off was having to over-treat around 48 men to prevent one prostate cancer death.

    We need to find the balance between enabling early life-saving detection and preventing harmful over-treatment of men with low-risk prostate cancer.

    Prostate cancer surgery can leave some men with urinary incontinence.
    Jota Buyinch Photo/Shutterstock

    What do the draft guidelines say?

    The Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia has released new draft clinical guidelines for the early detection of prostate cancer for public consultation.

    The following recommended changes aim to reduce over-treatment and minimise harm.

    1. Offer all men a ‘baseline’ PSA test at 40

    All men would be offered an initial PSA test at age 40 to provide a baseline PSA measurement to compare against follow-up tests.

    A baseline PSA measurement would enable the calculation of PSA doubling time: the number of months taken for PSA level to double from baseline.

    Aggressive fast-growing tumors tend to have shorter PSA doubling times, so this would enable early detection of high-risk prostate cancer for prompt treatment.

    Such a change could improve prostate cancer risk classification and spare more men from unnecessary harmful treatment side effects.

    2. GPs offer men aged 50–69 PSA tests every two years

    The draft guidelines recommend GPs offer PSA testing every two years for all men aged 50–69.

    For men over 70, PSA testing would be recommended based on clinical assessment by GPs.

    Men are more likely to be diagnosed with prostate cancer at an advanced age. So as they get older and have a shorter life expectancy, the harms of treatment are more likely to outweigh the benefits of early detection.

    This recommendation could reduce over-diagnosis by considering individual life expectancy, overall health and potential treatment harms.

    3. Target populations at greater risk

    As with other cancer types, prostate cancer is a disease caused by gene malfunctioning leading to tumour growth. Men with a family history of prostate cancer are around three times more likely to develop and die from prostate cancer due to their genetic susceptibility.

    Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander men have a higher risk of dying from prostate cancer compared to non-Indigenous men. This may be due to delayed diagnoses and limited access to prostate cancer treatment options in remote areas.

    For these men with higher prostate cancer risk, the draft guidelines recommend earlier and more frequent PSA testing, starting at age 40.

    This change could prioritise and serve targeted, high-risk populations of men who would benefit most from more regular PSA testing.

    Men with a family history of prostate cancer are more likely to develop the disease.
    Shakirov Albert/Shutterstock

    No more ‘finger up the bum’

    Previously, men with high PSA levels were referred for needle prostate biopsies which involve invasive insertion of needles into different areas of the prostate to remove tissue samples for lab analyses.

    Needle biopsies are painful and come with risks of bleeding or infection. So, it’s helpful to use additional prostate cancer testing approaches to guide who is referred for a biopsy.

    The new draft guidelines no longer recommend the use of digital rectal examination, the dreaded “finger up the bum”, to screen for signs of prostate cancer together with PSA testing. Men find this unpleasant and embarrassing.

    Instead, clinicians can turn to advanced imaging. Medicare rebates have been available for magnetic resonance imaging to diagnose prostate cancer since 2018.

    Medical specialists often order a multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) following elevated PSA levels to determine if biopsies are required. This is a specialised MRI that uses strong magnets and radio waves to construct a detailed three-dimensional image of the prostate from different angles and identify suspicious-looking areas.

    The draft guidelines recommend mpMRI to supplement PSA testing to better determine if a biopsy is needed. This saves men from unnecessary invasive procedures and reduces health-system costs.

    The information gathered from the public consultations will inform the final draft prostate cancer early detection guidelines. The final recommendations will then be sent to the National Health and Medical Research Council for approval, before becoming clinical practice.

    Kevin M. Koo receives funding from the Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia.

    – ref. Do I have prostate cancer? Why a simple PSA blood test alone won’t give you the answer – https://theconversation.com/do-i-have-prostate-cancer-why-a-simple-psa-blood-test-alone-wont-give-you-the-answer-257240

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Antisemitism plan fails on a number of fronts – a contentious definition of hate is just the start

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Louise Chappell, Scientia Professor, UNSW Sydney

    The antisemitism strategy presented to the Albanese government has attracted considerable – and wholly justifed – criticism.

    Produced by Jillian Segal, the special envoy to combat antisemitism, the blueprint falls short in a range of areas essential to good public policy. This is due to its biased arguments, weak evidence and recommendation overreach.

    There is also the adoption of a contentious definition of antisemitism which has been criticised for conflating disapproval of Israel with anti-Jewish prejudice.

    Alternative definition

    The strategy uses the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s definition of antisemitism, manifestations of which could include criticising the state of Israel.

    However, this definition is contentious – so much so that its original author, Kenneth Stern, has rejected it as a tool for regulating antisemitism due its potential to be weaponised to silence free speech.

    Other widely used definitions are unacknowledged in the report. These include the Jerusalem Declaration, which attempts to strike a better balance between antisemitism and freedom of speech, including criticism of Israel and Zionism.

    As the declaration notes:

    hostility to Israel could be an expression of an antisemitic animus, or it could be a reaction to a human rights violation, or it could be the emotion that a Palestinian person feels on account of their experience at the hands of the state.

    Biased Argument

    The report presents a clear and consistent argument: antisemitism has been on the rise in Australia, especially since the Hamas attacks in October 2023. It is particularly obvious in universities and cultural institutions.

    Antisemitism is an insidious form of prejudice and hatred which is destructive not only to the Jewish community, but to the very fabric of Australian society. It requires a community-wide response to stamp it out.

    The report is underpinned by Segal’s principled aspiration to ensure “all Australians, including Jewish Australians, can live with dignity, fairness, safety and mutual respect”.

    But there are multiple problems with how this argument is presented.

    First, it is sweeping in its application. A good example is the claim antisemitism “has become ingrained and normalised within academia and the cultural space”.

    No explanation is given to what these terms mean, or what these practices entail. Without such qualifiers, readers could easily be misguided in thinking the problem is more pronounced than it actually is.

    Weak evidence

    The report provides alarming statistics about the rise in reported cases of antisemitism in Australia, including a claimed 316% spike in the 12 months to October 2024.

    It pays particular attention to antisemitism in the university sector, quoting a survey by the Australasian Union of Jewish Students, which noted more than 60% of Jewish students who experienced antisemitism felt unsupported by their institutions.

    No doubt there has been a surge in antisemitic hatred, but there are significant problems with how evidence for it is presented in the report. Segal fails to
    produce a single citation, which makes it impossible to access the data and assess its veracity.

    Baseline figures, details about who collated the data, the investigation of incidents and their resolution, are all missing.

    The report also misquotes an important source.

    It states “in February 2025, ASIO Director General Mike Burgess declared antisemitism is Australia’s leading threat to life”.

    In fact, what Burgess actually said was:

    In terms of threats to life, it’s my agency’s number one priority because of the weight of incidents we’re seeing play out in this country.

    There are subtle yet important differences in these two statements, which need to be carefully parsed when dealing with such a serious issue.

    Gaza ignored

    Also problematic is the singular focus on extremist ideologies as the reason for the rise in antisemitism.

    In doing so, the strategy omits a compelling fact: the recent upsurge is likely linked to Israel’s war on Gaza which has resulted in mass Palestinian civilian casualties over the past 20 months.

    As international law expert Ben Saul argues:

    People did not just inexplicably and without context decide to become more antisemitic in that period. [It was fuelled by] fury at Israel’s profound violations of international law in Gaza.

    Furthermore, while Segal claims to be focused on mutual respect, she fails to acknowledge other groups that face similar forms of racism and discrimination, including Australia’s Indigenous peoples and Islamic communities.

    In doing so, the report appears to be seeking special treatment for the Australian Jewish community.

    Recommendation overreach

    Much of the negative reaction to the report has rightly been focused on its far-reaching punitive recommendations, which have been described as Trumpian.

    Many are directed towards the education sector, including threatened cuts to school and university funding, and extending the capacity to terminate staff who engage in “antisemitic” behaviours.

    Segal envisages creating a “university report card” to adjudicate on universities that are failing the standard, presumably set against her preferred antisemitism definition.

    The media and the cultural sector more broadly are also in Segal’s headlights, with recommendations to establish herself as a media monitor to ensure “fair and balanced reporting”. Charitable institutions deemed to be supporting antisemitism would lose their tax-deduction status.

    These highly controversial measures are an overreach of the envoy’s terms of reference.

    Segal’s mandate specifies her role is as an advisor to government, not a regulator. By taking such a drastic approach, the antisemitism strategy risks stoking further social division.

    The government, which is considering the recommendations, must proceed very cautiously.

    Louise Chappell receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Antisemitism plan fails on a number of fronts – a contentious definition of hate is just the start – https://theconversation.com/antisemitism-plan-fails-on-a-number-of-fronts-a-contentious-definition-of-hate-is-just-the-start-261082

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Almost half of young workers expected to work unpaid overtime, while a quarter aren’t paid compulsory super

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Howe, Associate Dean (Research), Melbourne Law School, The University of Melbourne

    Anna Kraynova/Shutterstock

    A young person gets a job, excited to earn their first paycheck. Over time, they realise the hours are long and the payslips small. They are told to stay back to clean up after closing, but never receive overtime. They feel exploited, but what can they do?

    It’s hard to find a job that fits with study commitments, and a reference could go a long way in the future. Besides, it happens to all their co-workers; they’d hate to cause a fuss.

    It’s a story as old as time, and it’s still happening today. Our new study has found wage exploitation is rife among employers who hire young people.

    In partnership with the Paul Ramsay Foundation, Melbourne Law School’s Fair Day’s Work project surveyed 2,814 workers under 30.

    Young workers in low-paid jobs were asked about their experiences in the workplace, the challenges they encountered, and how they dealt with exploitation.

    How some bosses are treating young workers

    We found young Australians are frequently underpaid and that exploitation is multifaceted:

    • 33% were paid $15 per hour or less

    • 43% had been told to complete extra work without additional pay

    • 34% were not paid for work during a trial period

    • 24% had not received compulsory super

    • 35% had their timesheet hours reduced by their employer

    • 17.9% had not been paid for all the work they completed

    • 9% received an hourly rate of $10 or less

    • 8% had been forced to return some, or all, of their pay to their employer.

    Further, 60% had had to pay for work-related items, such as uniforms, protective equipment, training or car fuel. Some 36% had been forbidden to take entitled breaks while 35% had their recorded timesheet hours reduced by their employer. Meanwhile 20% were “sometimes” paid “off the books”, and 12% were “always” paid off the books. And 9.5% had been given food or products instead of being paid in money.

    The most at risk

    We found exploitation is most often experienced by the most vulnerable young people. These include transgender, non-permanent workers (casual employees and private contractors), residents on temporary visas) and non-native English speakers.

    The worst-performing industries included electricity, gas, water and waste services; manufacturing; mining; transport, postal and warehousing; public administration and safety; information media and telecommunications; accommodation and food services; retail trade, and education and training.

    Workers in small businesses (up to 19 staff) were often not paid overtime or penalty rates, and were being paid “off the books”.

    Medium-sized business workers (20–199 employees) were the most likely to be required to pay for work-related items, such as equipment, training and car hire.

    And those from large businesses (200-plus) reported the highest rates of variance of weekly hours and requirements to pay for work uniform.

    Young people often don’t have much industrial knowledge or experience, so it is easy for employers to take advantage of them. They are also unlikely to challenge an employer, as many of them are in insecure work.

    What steps are being taken?

    Laws which took effect January 1 this year mean employers may face criminal penalties – including fines, imprisonment or both – if they intentionally underpay an employee in breach of the Fair Work Act 2009.

    But identifying underpayments and other forms of exploitation are the biggest barrier to compliance with workplace laws.

    Surveyed workers who were underpaid said they were most likely to seek the help of a family member. Only 12.9% of those aged 15 to 19 said they would be willing to complain to the Fair Work Ombudsman.

    However, workers who had dealt with the ombudsman mostly saw their experiences as positive: 41% found the regulator to be “very helpful”, while only 16.7% described it as “not helpful at all” or “not very helpful”.

    The results suggest the Fair Work Ombudsman needs to be doing more to engage teenage workers.

    What’s needed

    The Fair Day’s Work project set out to use data science and technology to identify risk of underpayment in relation to young workers, and improve employer compliance with workplace laws.

    Our aim was to develop a database on young workers employment conditions, along with a web portal to give young people and employers the information they need.

    We hypothesised that a prediction tool could be used to assess which young workers are at greatest risk. However, we found publicly available data was insufficient to do this, so we conducted our own survey of young workers and made this data available through a public web portal to help workers and employers.

    We came up six recommendations to help stop young workers being exploited:

    1. regulators need to get tougher with the nine industries we identified as the poorest performers to make them more compliant

    2. the Fair Work Ombudsman should scrutinise the industries where payment was made in food or products and workers were required to return money to employers occurred most frequently

    3. educate mid-sized businesses on the extent to which they can lawfully require workers to pay for work-related items

    4. lawmakers and the Fair Work Commission should consider introducing truly equitable “loaded rates” for junior employees. This would deal with non-payment of penalty rates and other entitlements by some employers

    5. more money to make young workers aware they can get help from the Fair Work Ombudsman, trade unions, community legal centres, the Young Workers’ Centre and similar bodies

    6. more work to develop and use data science and digital tools to help employers fulfil their legal obligations, and to protect young workers’ rights.

    Our survey results highlight the extent to which young people continue to be exploited in the workplace and suggest more work needs to be done to bring about change.

    John Howe receives funding from the Paul Ramsay Foundation.

    Tom Dillon receives funding from the Paul Ramsay Foundation.

    – ref. Almost half of young workers expected to work unpaid overtime, while a quarter aren’t paid compulsory super – https://theconversation.com/almost-half-of-young-workers-expected-to-work-unpaid-overtime-while-a-quarter-arent-paid-compulsory-super-261016

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Almost half of young workers expected to work unpaid overtime, while a quarter aren’t paid compulsory super

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Howe, Associate Dean (Research), Melbourne Law School, The University of Melbourne

    Anna Kraynova/Shutterstock

    A young person gets a job, excited to earn their first paycheck. Over time, they realise the hours are long and the payslips small. They are told to stay back to clean up after closing, but never receive overtime. They feel exploited, but what can they do?

    It’s hard to find a job that fits with study commitments, and a reference could go a long way in the future. Besides, it happens to all their co-workers; they’d hate to cause a fuss.

    It’s a story as old as time, and it’s still happening today. Our new study has found wage exploitation is rife among employers who hire young people.

    In partnership with the Paul Ramsay Foundation, Melbourne Law School’s Fair Day’s Work project surveyed 2,814 workers under 30.

    Young workers in low-paid jobs were asked about their experiences in the workplace, the challenges they encountered, and how they dealt with exploitation.

    How some bosses are treating young workers

    We found young Australians are frequently underpaid and that exploitation is multifaceted:

    • 33% were paid $15 per hour or less

    • 43% had been told to complete extra work without additional pay

    • 34% were not paid for work during a trial period

    • 24% had not received compulsory super

    • 35% had their timesheet hours reduced by their employer

    • 17.9% had not been paid for all the work they completed

    • 9% received an hourly rate of $10 or less

    • 8% had been forced to return some, or all, of their pay to their employer.

    Further, 60% had had to pay for work-related items, such as uniforms, protective equipment, training or car fuel. Some 36% had been forbidden to take entitled breaks while 35% had their recorded timesheet hours reduced by their employer. Meanwhile 20% were “sometimes” paid “off the books”, and 12% were “always” paid off the books. And 9.5% had been given food or products instead of being paid in money.

    The most at risk

    We found exploitation is most often experienced by the most vulnerable young people. These include transgender, non-permanent workers (casual employees and private contractors), residents on temporary visas) and non-native English speakers.

    The worst-performing industries included electricity, gas, water and waste services; manufacturing; mining; transport, postal and warehousing; public administration and safety; information media and telecommunications; accommodation and food services; retail trade, and education and training.

    Workers in small businesses (up to 19 staff) were often not paid overtime or penalty rates, and were being paid “off the books”.

    Medium-sized business workers (20–199 employees) were the most likely to be required to pay for work-related items, such as equipment, training and car hire.

    And those from large businesses (200-plus) reported the highest rates of variance of weekly hours and requirements to pay for work uniform.

    Young people often don’t have much industrial knowledge or experience, so it is easy for employers to take advantage of them. They are also unlikely to challenge an employer, as many of them are in insecure work.

    What steps are being taken?

    Laws which took effect January 1 this year mean employers may face criminal penalties – including fines, imprisonment or both – if they intentionally underpay an employee in breach of the Fair Work Act 2009.

    But identifying underpayments and other forms of exploitation are the biggest barrier to compliance with workplace laws.

    Surveyed workers who were underpaid said they were most likely to seek the help of a family member. Only 12.9% of those aged 15 to 19 said they would be willing to complain to the Fair Work Ombudsman.

    However, workers who had dealt with the ombudsman mostly saw their experiences as positive: 41% found the regulator to be “very helpful”, while only 16.7% described it as “not helpful at all” or “not very helpful”.

    The results suggest the Fair Work Ombudsman needs to be doing more to engage teenage workers.

    What’s needed

    The Fair Day’s Work project set out to use data science and technology to identify risk of underpayment in relation to young workers, and improve employer compliance with workplace laws.

    Our aim was to develop a database on young workers employment conditions, along with a web portal to give young people and employers the information they need.

    We hypothesised that a prediction tool could be used to assess which young workers are at greatest risk. However, we found publicly available data was insufficient to do this, so we conducted our own survey of young workers and made this data available through a public web portal to help workers and employers.

    We came up six recommendations to help stop young workers being exploited:

    1. regulators need to get tougher with the nine industries we identified as the poorest performers to make them more compliant

    2. the Fair Work Ombudsman should scrutinise the industries where payment was made in food or products and workers were required to return money to employers occurred most frequently

    3. educate mid-sized businesses on the extent to which they can lawfully require workers to pay for work-related items

    4. lawmakers and the Fair Work Commission should consider introducing truly equitable “loaded rates” for junior employees. This would deal with non-payment of penalty rates and other entitlements by some employers

    5. more money to make young workers aware they can get help from the Fair Work Ombudsman, trade unions, community legal centres, the Young Workers’ Centre and similar bodies

    6. more work to develop and use data science and digital tools to help employers fulfil their legal obligations, and to protect young workers’ rights.

    Our survey results highlight the extent to which young people continue to be exploited in the workplace and suggest more work needs to be done to bring about change.

    John Howe receives funding from the Paul Ramsay Foundation.

    Tom Dillon receives funding from the Paul Ramsay Foundation.

    – ref. Almost half of young workers expected to work unpaid overtime, while a quarter aren’t paid compulsory super – https://theconversation.com/almost-half-of-young-workers-expected-to-work-unpaid-overtime-while-a-quarter-arent-paid-compulsory-super-261016

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: School lunches, the French way: It’s not just about nutrition, but togetherness and ‘bon appetit’

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Rachel Engler-Stringer, Professor, Department of Community Health and Epidemiology, University of Saskatchewan

    This spring, as part of a sabbatical project, I had the privilege of visiting school food programs and meeting with school food researchers in six cities in France, England and Scotland.

    I got to eat school lunches, visit central kitchens in two cities where meals are prepared for thousands of children, visit school kitchens and discuss school food with the countries’ leading experts.

    This visit intersects with my research with colleagues on promising food programs across Canada. This research offers insights for consideration as regions navigate the federal government’s first National School Food Program and National School Food Policy.

    Government announcements about the program and policy were followed by negotiations with the provinces and territories, all of which have since signed agreements for a portion of the funding.

    In most parts of Canada, officials are just beginning to plan for new approaches to school food (with a few exceptions especially in Atlantic Canada where school food programs have been transforming much more quickly).

    Based on my research about international food programs, here are four key things Canadians should pay attention to:

    1) In Canada we need to shift from thinking of school lunches as a safety net for kids living in poverty to thinking about them as benefiting the health and well-being of children and their families. In France, this shift in thinking is particularly clear.

    School lunches in France are about teaching children about food and culture and all kids are encouraged to eat together with an adult facilitator who teaches them about the components of the meal and creates a family-meal context at each table. By contrast, if you ask many parents in Canada what school meals are for, they will tell you they are for kids living in poverty to make sure they have food to eat at school.

    If Canada wants a national school food program that achieves the benefits of the best programs in the world in the areas of education, well-being and on the economy, we need to think of school meals as supporting young people to be the best students they can be.

    2) One important benefit of school food programs globally is to encourage picky eaters to try new foods due to the social pressure of all kids eating the same foods together. In three cities in France I visited, and one in England, school lunches look like home-cooked meals. One main dish with meat is served (and in England, a vegetarian alternative), and kids can choose if and how much of the side vegetables and fruit to take.

    In Canada, following a similar practice — one main and a vegetarian alternative when meat is served — might work well. But it’s also important that in developing a menu, the cultural diversity of Canadian school communities is reflected in the food on offer.

    In the other two locations in England and Scotland, kids choose from multiple main dishes — something that adds cost to the program and does less to encourage kids to try new foods, given one choice is always something basic like a cheese sandwich.

    Kids need to have some autonomy when it comes to eating, but school food programs should not be facilitating eating the same food every day. Nor should school food programs aspire to a model where broad choice is afforded from a large menu.

    3) With care, planning and sufficient resources, centralized kitchens can prepare thousands of servings of a main dish daily. The French central kitchens I visited prepare 6,000 to 10,000 servings a day of high-quality food following strict food safety protocols.

    I ate two simple yet delicious meals cooked in municipally owned central kitchens. In the three cities in France where I visited, they used central kitchens where main dishes were prepared and chilled to be delivered for heating at the school level. Central kitchens also delivered the salads and sides (like chopped veggies, bread, cheese and fruit) and dressings.

    In the small school kitchens, the salads were dressed, and the cheese and fruit were cut for service.

    The central kitchens were also used in at least one city to prepare food for daycares and for seniors who were home-bound — something to consider for Canadian cities.

    Centralizing kitchens can reduce costs and provide a way for high-quality food to be produced from basic ingredients without commercial kitchens in every school capable of preparing meals for hundreds of children at a time.

    4) When designed with requirements for purchasing foods from local farmers and other Canadian producers, school food programs can benefit the agricultural sector and multiply their benefits to communities beyond direct school food jobs. In France, for example, there are specific percentages to be purchased from local and sustainable sources. Percentage requirements for local and sustainable purchasing should be enacted now in Canada as its program establishes itself, perhaps beginning with 20 per cent and growing over time.

    I have many more reflections from my visits, both positive and negative, but the four I have discussed are important for Canada to learn from as it begins to design the National School Food Program to meet the needs of diverse communities from coast to coast to coast.

    Rachel Engler-Stringer receives funding from the Canadian Institutes for Health Research, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, the Public Health Agency of Canada and received a University of Saskatchewan International Travel Award for program visits. She sits on the Steering Committee of the Coalition for Healthy School Food.

    – ref. School lunches, the French way: It’s not just about nutrition, but togetherness and ‘bon appetit’ – https://theconversation.com/school-lunches-the-french-way-its-not-just-about-nutrition-but-togetherness-and-bon-appetit-259832

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: The anatomy of a flash flood: Why the Texas flood was so deadly

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Hossein Bonakdari, Associate Professor, Civil Engineering, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

    Between July 3 and 6, Texas Hill Country experienced catastrophic flash flooding along the Guadalupe River system. The floods claimed at least 130 lives, with over 96 fatalities in Kerr County alone. More than 160 people were missing as of July 12, including children attending camps along the river.

    Preliminary economic losses are estimated at US$18–22 billion, reflecting both residential and infrastructure damages.

    Understanding the anatomy of this flash flood, and unravelling the complex interplay of meteorological, geomorphological and hydrological forces, forms the foundation for a comprehensive assessment of what happened. This information is vital to help prevent future similar tragedies from occurring.



    Read more:
    What is a flash flood? A civil engineer explains

    Atmospheric conditions

    The July 2025 flood event in central Texas was triggered by a rare and potent meteorological configuration.

    Atmospheric anomalies are weather conditions that differ from what’s expected. Analysis of the July 2025 atmospheric anomalies reveals exceptional thermodynamic conditions that directly contributed to the flood’s severity.

    The total precipitation over the core impact zone in the Hill Country during July 3 to 6 is estimated to have delivered more than 15 billion cubic metres of water — an extraordinary volume.

    This deluge was supported by persistent temperature anomalies ranging from 5.4 to 6.9 degrees Celsius above the mean. Such elevated temperatures increased the atmosphere’s capacity to retain moisture.

    At these anomaly levels, the air mass could store 35 to 50 per cent more water vapour than normal.

    Simultaneously, specific humidity anomalies reflected a 60 to 70 per cent increase over July baselines for central Texas. Specific humidity, which quantifies the actual mass of water vapour per kilogram of air, provides a more direct metric of latent moisture available for precipitation.

    The convergence of these extreme thermodynamic variables created an ideal environment for deep, moisture-laden convection, supporting prolonged intense rainfall.

    This map of Texas highlights the core impact zone in Hill Country, where rainfall totals exceeded 430 millimetres, more than four times the regional July average.
    (H. Bonakdari/GSMaP), CC BY

    Terrain impacts

    While meteorological extremes initiated the July 2025 flood event, the morphology of the Guadalupe River — its shape, behaviour and flows — was pivotal in transforming heavy rainfall into a catastrophic flash flood.

    The upper basin’s physical geography, drainage configuration and valley structure contributed to the rapid concentration and propagation of floodwaters.

    Known as “Flash Flood Alley,” the terrain of the upper Guadalupe River basin amplified the July 2025 flood through a combination of steep slopes, shallow soils and karstic geology.

    These steep slopes limited infiltration and led to rapid soil saturation under intense rainfall. The predominance of karstic limestone — limestone that has been shaped by water creating plains and sinkholes — further reduced storage below the surface, resulting in minimal delay between rainfall and discharge.

    Additionally, narrow valley sections created hydraulic bottlenecks, accelerating flow and increasing flood depth, particularly affecting residential areas and campsites.

    A map showing the relationships between steep headwaters, tributary confluences and vulnerable downstream communities.
    (H. Bonakdari/NASA), CC BY

    In contrast, broader valleys allowed for the water to spread laterally; there was still destructive momentum due to upstream forcing. These geomorphic traits, compounded by the extreme atmospheric moisture, created an environment where floodwaters accumulated rapidly and struck with devastating force, especially along confluence zones and densely occupied riverfronts.

    Excessive runoff

    Prior to the July 2025 event, central Texas had already experienced elevated soil moisture conditions due to above-average rainfall during June and early July. Antecedent moisture indices that measure how wet the ground is before rainfall approached 90 to 100 per cent saturation, meaning that the ground was effectively primed for rapid runoff generation.

    The region’s karst terrain — characterized by shallow, rocky soils — offered less than five per cent effective porosity, severely limiting absorption into the ground. Simultaneously, regional groundwater tables had risen underground, further reducing the ground’s capacity to absorb water.

    This set the stage for an outsized response to the incoming deluge. When intense rainfall arrived, the ground was quickly and completely saturated, resulting in immediate and rapid surface runoff.

    The time of concentration is how long it takes rainwater from the farthest part of a watershed to reach its outlet, like a river or stream. In central Texas Hill Country (known for its steep slopes and rocky, shallow soils), that time is just one to two hours. This means that heavy rain can lead to dangerous river rises very quickly.

    Water flows fast down the slopes and through underground limestone channels, leaving little time for it to soak into the ground. As a result, rivers such as the Guadalupe can swell rapidly, rising several feet in a short time, which causes fast-moving flood impacts in narrow valleys and low-lying communities.

    Multiple forces

    The July floods in Texas were devastatingly deadly. A confluence of various meteorological and topographical factors were to blame.

    An overheated atmosphere, saturated with water vapour, unleashed record-breaking rainfall. The unique terrain of Texas Hill Country funnelled that rain swiftly into the river system, while the region’s hydrology, already primed by previous storms, converted nearly all of it into runoff.

    By understanding how these atmospheric, geographic and hydrological elements combined, we can better anticipate future risks in “Flash Flood Alley” and improve early warning systems to save lives.

    Hossein Bonakdari does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The anatomy of a flash flood: Why the Texas flood was so deadly – https://theconversation.com/the-anatomy-of-a-flash-flood-why-the-texas-flood-was-so-deadly-260695

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: A robot stole my internship: How Gen Z’s entry into the workplace is being affected by AI

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Melise Panetta, Lecturer of Marketing in the Lazaridis School of Business and Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University

    For years, the expression “the robot took my job” has brought to mind visions of machines replacing workers on factory floors. But Gen Z is facing a new challenge: the loss of internships and other entry-level positions to AI.

    Internships and junior roles have historically provided a predictable ladder into the workforce by providing new workers with the experience and skills needed for long-term career development.

    But as artificial intelligence (AI) spreads to every corner of the modern workplace, these roles are susceptible to being replaced by automation.

    Entry-level roles traditionally involve low-complexity, high-frequency tasks such as data entry, scheduling or drafting reports — tasks that generative AI can do significantly cheaper and faster than a human. This almost certainly means fewer traditional bottom rungs on the career ladder.

    We are already seeing the impact of this: entry-level jobs are becoming scarcer, with candidates competing against a 14 per cent hike in applications per role, according to LinkedIn.

    No one’s 20s and 30s look the same. You might be saving for a mortgage or just struggling to pay rent. You could be swiping dating apps, or trying to understand childcare. No matter your current challenges, our Quarter Life series has articles to share in the group chat, or just to remind you that you’re not alone.

    Read more from Quarter Life:

    AI is changing the workplace

    The integration of AI across industries is fundamentally reshaping the job market.

    Nearly half of professionals worry AI will replace their jobs. There is good reason for this: by 2030, it’s estimated that nearly 30 per cent of work could be automated by generative AI.

    Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds of executives say they are willing to use AI tools to drive up productivity at the expense of losing staff. Conversely, only one in three executives are willing to keep their staff at the expense of higher expected productivity.

    It is also projected that declines in traditional entry-level or junior roles in sectors such as food services, customer service, sales and office support work could account for nearly 84 per cent of the occupational shifts expected by 2030.

    Talent and entry-level role shortages in the future

    Data on AI and the future of work also points to another potential problem: a talent shortage for certain skill sets. A 2024 report from Microsoft and LinkedIn found that leaders are concerned with shortages in areas such as cybersecurity, engineering and creative design.

    Though this data might appear contradictory, it signals that in addition to fewer entry level positions being available, changes to job roles and skill sets are also on the horizon.

    As a result, competition for entry-level roles is expected to increase, with greater value put on candidates who can use AI tools to improve their productivity and effectiveness.

    Rather than simply eliminating jobs, many roles are evolving to require new capabilities. There is also growing demand for specialized talent where AI cannot yet fully augment human abilities.

    AI literacy is the new entry requirement

    As AI becomes more prevalent in the workforce, “entry-level” roles are no longer just about completing basic tasks, but about knowing how to work effectively with new technologies, including AI.

    Employers are beginning to place immense value on AI literacy. Two-thirds of managers say they wouldn’t hire someone without AI skills and 71 per cent say they would prefer a less experienced candidate with AI skills over a more experienced one without them.

    With fewer entry-level positions available, young workers will need to figure out how to stand out in a competitive job market. But despite these challenges, Gen Z may also be the best-positioned to adapt to these changes.

    As digital natives, many Gen Z are already integrating AI tools into their work. A report from LinkedIn and Microsoft found 85 per cent are bringing AI tools like ChatGPT or Copilot into the workplace, indicating they are both comfortable and eager to make use of this technology.

    This trend mirrors broader trends across the workforce. One report found 76 per cent of professionals believe they need AI-related skills to remain competitive. That same Microsoft and LinkedIn report found there has been a 160 per cent surge in learning courses for AI literacy.

    This growing emphasis on AI skills is part of a wider shift toward “upskilling” — the process of enhancing skill sets to adapt to the changing conditions of the job market. Today, upskilling means leaning how to use AI to enhance, accelerate and strengthen your performance in the workplace.

    A new kind of entry-level job

    Since AI literacy is becoming a core career skill, being able to present yourself as a candidate with AI skills is important for standing out in a crowded entry-level job market. This includes knowing how to use AI tools, evaluate their outputs critically and apply them in a workplace context. It also means learning how to present AI skills on a resume and in interviews.

    Employers also have a role to play in all this. If they want to attract and retain employees, they need to redesign entry-level roles. Instead of eliminating entry-level roles, they should refocus on higher-value activities that require critical thinking or creativity. These are the areas where humans outperform machines, and where AI can act as a support rather than a replacement.

    But to make this work, employers need to re-evaluate their hiring practices to prioritize AI literacy and transferable skills over outdated experience requirements.

    The future of work isn’t about humans being replaced by robots, but about learning how to use the technology to enhance skills and creating new entry points into the professional world.

    Melise Panetta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A robot stole my internship: How Gen Z’s entry into the workplace is being affected by AI – https://theconversation.com/a-robot-stole-my-internship-how-gen-zs-entry-into-the-workplace-is-being-affected-by-ai-260381

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran could fuel a new wave of nuclear proliferation

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Saira Bano, Assistant Professor in Political Science, Thompson Rivers University

    In the wake of recent strikes by Israel and the United States on Iranian cities, military sites and nuclear facilities, a troubling paradox has emerged: actions intended to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons may actually be accelerating its pursuit of them and encouraging other countries to follow suit.

    On June 13, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a military campaign aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear program. The operation began with a series of co-ordinated strikes targeting Iran’s top nuclear scientists, senior military officials and key members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

    Despite establishing air dominance, Israel did not possess the capability to destroy Iran’s most heavily fortified nuclear facilities — especially the Fordow enrichment site, which is buried deep within a mountain.



    Read more:
    Why Israel and the U.S. are sure to encounter the limits of air power in Iran

    On June 21, the U.S. carried out major airstrikes targeting Iran’s critical nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Using B-2 stealth bombers equipped with bunker-busting bombs, the operation aimed to cripple Iran’s deeply fortified nuclear infrastructure.

    Three days later, Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire, bringing the 12-day conflict to an end. While both sides declared aspects of the campaign successful, the war marked a dangerous escalation in regional tensions and raised renewed concerns over the future of nuclear nonproliferation and security in the Middle East.

    History of nuclear negotiations

    The U.S. has consistently asserted that Iran must never be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. In 2006, Iran was subjected to international sanctions after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported the government was not in compliance with its nuclear energy obligations.

    Under former president Barack Obama, the U.S. government pursued a diplomatic path, culminating in the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Under the deal, Iran agreed to limit uranium enrichment to 3.67 per cent and allow intrusive IAEA inspections. In exchange, it received relief from some international sanctions.

    In 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA, despite IAEA reports confirming Iran’s compliance. This decision undermined diplomatic trust and prompted Iran to scale back its commitments under the deal.

    The Biden administration sought to revive the JCPOA, but Iran demanded binding guarantees that future U.S. governments would not again withdraw — an assurance Biden could not provide.

    In the aftermath, Iran significantly escalated its nuclear activities. According to IAEA reports, Iran has more than 400 kilograms of enriched uranium to 60 per cent — an amount that, if further refined to 90 per cent, could be sufficient to produce 10 to 12 nuclear weapons.

    Iran has long used its nuclear program as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the U.S. While Iranian officials have maintained their program is purely peaceful, the country produces more highly enriched uranium than it needs for domestic power generation. Enriching uranium has been a way for Iran to raise pressure on the U.S. to lift sanctions.

    The second Trump administration resumed negotiations for a new nuclear deal aimed at imposing stronger constraints on Iran’s nuclear program.

    Although five rounds of negotiations were held, a sixth round scheduled for June 15 was disrupted when Israel conducted a military strike on Iran two days earlier. The attack escalated tensions and derailed the diplomatic process, further complicating the possibility of reaching a renewed agreement.

    Strikes could lead to nuclear proliferation

    Although Trump claimed the U.S. strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, initial intelligence assessments were more cautious, noting significant damage but not total destruction.

    Although it maintains ambiguity about its nuclear program, Israel is seen to be the only country in the Middle East to possess nuclear weapons. It has taken military action to prevent other countries in the region from developing nuclear programs.

    In 2007, Israel bombed a suspected nuclear reactor under construction in Syria. In 1981, Israeli fighter jets bombed a nuclear reactor in Iraq.

    The Israeli government may have calculated that airstrikes could also effectively work against Iran. However, the difference is that Iran’s nuclear program is far more advanced than Syria or Iraq’s were. While the recent strikes may have set the program back by two years, Iran retains the knowledge and capacity to rebuild.

    Ironically, the Israeli and U.S. strikes, which aimed to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities, may instead encourage Iranian officials to accelerate their efforts. Following the war, Iran ended all co-operation with the IAEA, expelling inspectors and cutting off access to its nuclear sites. Without IAEA personnel on the ground, it has become extremely difficult to monitor or verify the scope of Iran’s nuclear activities.

    Bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities each time it advances its nuclear program is not a sustainable strategy. Israel had hoped that a decisive military strike would trigger widespread unrest and potentially lead to the Iranian government’s collapse.

    Instead, the opposite occurred: the Iranian public rallied around the flag, perceiving the attack as a blatant violation of national sovereignty. As a result, the government strengthened its domestic legitimacy and further suppressed political opposition.

    For now, Iranian officials have maintained that they do not intend to develop a nuclear weapon. However, the Iranian parliament is preparing legislation to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, of which Iran is currently a signatory.

    Exiting the treaty would remove a major legal and diplomatic constraint on Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons. Should Iran decide to go down that path, it would likely trigger a nuclear arms race in the region.

    Saudi Arabia has indicated that if Iran builds a nuclear weapon, it will seek to do the same.

    The most effective way to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is through sustained diplomacy and a renewed nuclear agreement. A credible deal that includes robust verification mechanisms and IAEA inspections and sanctions relief remains the most viable solution.

    Military strikes, by contrast, tend to backfire, and will likely reinforce the belief in Iran — and elsewhere — that only a nuclear deterrent can shield them from external threats.

    Saira Bano does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran could fuel a new wave of nuclear proliferation – https://theconversation.com/u-s-and-israeli-strikes-on-iran-could-fuel-a-new-wave-of-nuclear-proliferation-260897

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Feeling confident and in control when they’re active boosts children’s wellbeing

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michaela James, Research Officer at Medical School, Swansea University

    Anna Kraynova/Shutterstock

    The wellbeing of children is under the spotlight in the UK, after a 2025 report from Unicef ranked the UK at 21 out of 36 wealthy countries on child wellbeing. With growing concerns about mental health, rising screen time, and fewer chances to play – as well as the well-known links between physical activity and better mood – one solution seems obvious. Get kids moving more.

    But our new research suggests that it’s not just about more activity. It’s about better experiences. Feeling safe, capable and free to choose matters is more important for children than just the number of minutes they spend running around.

    Our findings from a national study of over 16,000 children aged seven to 11 across Wales found that while physical activity is clearly important, its benefits for mental health were more connected to how children felt while moving than to how much they moved.

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    We found that children who thought that they had control over how they were active, felt confident taking part in physical activity and believed they were good at it scored higher on wellbeing scales. These factors – autonomy, confidence and competence – were stronger predictors of wellbeing than more traditional measures like deprivation (normally we’d expect deprivation to positively or negatively affect wellbeing) or even total time spent being active.

    We also found that children who felt safe where they lived, no matter how wealthy or deprived the area, were more likely to feel happy and well.

    Yet too often, their chances to play and move are limited. Sometimes it’s because adults worry about safety, and so don’t permit children to roam or play in the potentially risky ways they might prefer. Other times, it’s because the places around them just aren’t built with children in mind.

    Rethinking what we tell children

    Interestingly, we found that knowledge of why activity is good for you – often taught in schools or health campaigns – was associated with lower wellbeing. This suggests that top-down, adult-led messaging that focuses on why physical activity leads to physical fitness or maintaining a healthy weight might be missing the mark.

    For some children, it could even feel like pressure. Messaging from schools and organisations may be harmful if they focus on outcomes rather than experience.

    The feeling of control or choice was strongly associated with better mental health and fewer behavioural issues. These findings echo what young people have previously told us: they want more opportunities to play, to choose how they move, and to enjoy being active without pressure.

    Being able to choose how they are active matters for children’s wellbeing.
    chomplearn/Shutterstock

    That’s not to say movement doesn’t matter. Children who moved more and sat less generally felt better about themselves. Less sedentary time was consistently associated with better wellbeing and lower emotional and behavioural difficulties.

    But again, it wasn’t just the behaviour — it was the feeling behind it that mattered. Our analysis showed that the most significant predictor of low emotional difficulties was feeling safe. For behavioural difficulties it is feelings of autonomy and competence that played a key role.

    We also found that girls were more likely to report emotional difficulties (trouble controlling emotions or acting on feelings), while boys were more likely to experience behavioural ones (trouble controlling behaviour). This suggests a gendered difference in how wellbeing challenges show up.

    This tells us that supporting wellbeing isn’t a one-size-fits-all solution. The more we can listen to and work with children to shape activity around their needs, the more likely we are to reach those who might otherwise miss out.

    How we move matters

    For schools and youth organisations, this means rethinking how physical activity is promoted. Rather than more sports, more drills and more rules, children need inclusive, safe spaces where they feel confident to participate and free to choose.

    A simple solution to this could include longer breaks between lessons and more free time to play, or varied activities that cater to different interests and skill levels.

    It also means listening to what children say they need. In our previous research during the pandemic, children consistently asked for more time, safer spaces and permission to be active in ways that feel good to them.

    If we want to support children’s wellbeing, we must shift from performance to participation. It’s not just about how fast they can run or how long they can play. It’s about whether they feel safe, capable, and in control.

    Michaela James receives funding from ADR Wales.

    Mayara Silveira Bianchim receives funding from Cystic Fibrosis Trust.

    – ref. Feeling confident and in control when they’re active boosts children’s wellbeing – https://theconversation.com/feeling-confident-and-in-control-when-theyre-active-boosts-childrens-wellbeing-258327

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: ‘Pig butchering’ scams have stolen billions from people around the world. Here’s what you need to know

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Bing Han, Lecturer in Economic Crime, University of Portsmouth

    thanun vongsuravanich / Shutterstock

    At the beginning of 2025, panic about fraud and human trafficking erupted on Chinese social media. It started when a Chinese actor called Wang Xing was tricked into travelling to Thailand for an audition, where he was abducted by criminals and taken to a scam centre in Myanmar.

    Wang was reported missing and, within three days, the Thai police had located and returned him to Thailand. Details of the operation were not revealed, leading to speculation that withholding more information was part of a deal that led to Wang’s release.

    Inside the compound, Wang’s head was shaved and he told the police he was forced to undergo the first phase of training on how to carry out scams.



    Read more:
    Scam Factories: the inside story of Southeast Asia’s brutal fraud compounds

    One such scam is known as “pig butchering”. This type of scam began attracting attention in China around 2019, and is typically carried out by Chinese organised crime groups. Scammers establish fake romantic and trusting relationships with victims before luring them into fraudulent investments or other financial traps.

    Pig-butchering scammers have stolen billions of dollars from victims worldwide. In one notable example from 2023, a banker from Kansas in the US called Shan Hanes embezzled US$47 million (£34.6 million) from his bank to cover his losses after falling victim to a pig butchering scam. Hanes was subsequently sentenced to more than 24 years in prison. So, what do we know about how pig butchering scams work?

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    A pig butchering scam consists of three stages: hunting, raising and killing. These stages correspond to scammers finding victims online, talking with them to build trust and then getting them to invest large amounts of money in fraudulent schemes.

    There are some similarities between a pig butchering scam and a traditional romance scam. Scammers may, as in a traditional scam, approach their victims by posing as a possible romantic partner on a dating app or a friend on social media.

    But the key difference lies in how the scam is executed. In a traditional romance scam, trust is based on the victim’s desire to maintain a romantic relationship with the scammer. Because of this, traditional romance scams can sometimes last for years.

    Pig butchering scams, in comparison, generally take place over a shorter time frame. Rather than focusing on extracting money solely through emotional manipulation, they lean heavily on the victim’s desire to make money together with the scammer. They often involve just a few months of talking with the victim.

    The scammers present themselves as financially successful and confident people with broad networks and attractive investment opportunities. Once a victim makes a small initial investment, scammers rapidly escalate the process and push them into making much larger financial commitments.

    In one example from 2024, a woman in the US state of Connecticut called Jacqueline Crenshaw met a man on an online dating site. He was posing as a widower with two children and frequently spoke with Crenshaw over the phone. Within two months, they began discussing investing in cryptocurrency.

    Crenshaw sent him US$40,000 (£29,500) initially and received screenshots from him showing supposedly huge profits from the cryptocurrency investment. The scammer soon encouraged Crenshaw to invest much more, which ultimately led to her losing nearly US$1 million (£738,000).

    Organised crime groups

    Pig butchering scams are typically run by highly organised criminal groups. These groups have management teams, provide training to new recruits and often hire people as models who occasionally interact with victims.

    The Chinese government has taken several steps to combat fraud in recent years. It enacted the Anti-Telecom Fraud Law in 2022, which was designed specifically to prevent and punish the use of telecommunications and internet technologies to defraud individuals and organisations. It was introduced in response to the growing prevalence of pig butchering scams in China.

    The Chinese Ministry of Public Security has also developed a mobile application called the National Anti-Fraud Center App. The app allows the public to report scams and access real-time risk alerts related to fraud. Alongside the work of other government departments, it has helped intercept 4.7 billion scam calls and 3.4 billion fraudulent text messages since the beginning of 2024.

    The crackdown on fraud within China has made it more difficult for criminal groups to operate domestically, prompting many to relocate their bases abroad. South-east Asian countries – particularly Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar – have become a preferred destination for such groups.

    Regions of northern Myanmar, such as Kokang and Wa State, have become breeding grounds for organised fraud over the past few years. Chinese is widely spoken in both of these areas and local customs closely resemble those in China.

    This has been exacerbated by persistent corruption in border areas, poor governance and instability. The collapse of the illegal online gambling industry in south-east Asia following the pandemic has also led crime groups to search for new sources of revenue. These conditions have together facilitated the proliferation of large-scale fraudulent operations.

    Organised fraud has evolved into a key pillar of the local economy in certain parts of south-east Asia. The profits generated from online scams are estimated to amount to 40% of the combined GDP of Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar.

    Criminal leaders have established tightly controlled compounds that serve as hubs for online scams, with their primary activities centred on pig butchering. These compounds are frequently presented as “technology parks”, which helps recruit workers. However, many people are forced to work in the scam centres.

    Pig butchering scams can inflict severe financial harm on victims. But are also closely tied to violent crime, human trafficking and other forms of organised criminal activity. They pose a growing threat to regional and global security.

    Bing Han does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘Pig butchering’ scams have stolen billions from people around the world. Here’s what you need to know – https://theconversation.com/pig-butchering-scams-have-stolen-billions-from-people-around-the-world-heres-what-you-need-to-know-252774

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Katy Perry and her fellow space tourists weren’t exceptions – humanity has long cared about interplanetary style

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Berna Akcali Gur, Lecturer in Outer Space Law, Queen Mary University of London

    When pop star Katy Perry and five other women made a much-publicised trip to the edge of space earlier this year, they faced sharp criticism across both social and traditional media, with sceptics questioning multiple aspects of the mission.

    Much of the backlash centred on the emphasis the crew – which included broadcaster Gayle King and Jeff Bezos’s now-wife, journalist Lauren Sánchez – placed on glamour. Detractors saw their uniforms as at odds with the traditional image of astronauts as explorers, scientific pioneers and envoys of humankind venturing into space.

    The flight suits were designed by New York fashion house Monse Maison’s co-founders, Fernando Garcia and Laura Kim. They also created Sánchez’s 2024 Met Gala look.

    The celebrity crew were first revealed in a photo shared by Blue Origin on April 12, two days before the launch. The unveiling was followed by a series of pre-flight interviews that touched on topics such as makeup, lash extensions and hair styling.

    In one such segment, Perry quipped that the crew “put ass in astronaut”. It’s the type of comment that, while playful, reinforced the criticism that the flight prioritised spectacle over substance.

    Having previously conducted research on governance of space suit design and astronaut safety, I think much of the backlash targeting the crew’s emphasis on glamour is misplaced. Fashion and style has long played a role in space exploration, a defining feature of both science fiction and real-world missions.

    The all-women crew of Blue Origin, in their own way, carried forward this tradition, reinforcing the enduring connection between style symbolism, and space travel.

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    Space-faring nations spend millions getting both public and private companies to design suits for intravehicular activity (IVA suits) and extravehicular activities (EVA suits). The priority is not just functionality and safety, but also creating impressive designs.

    High fashion house Prada is currently collaborating with Axiom Inc. to design suits for the forthcoming Artemis Mission, a lunar exploration mission led by Nasa. Another Nasa next-generation spacesuit features an exterior cover designed by Esther M. Marquis, who was enlisted for the project after showcasing her visionary spacesuit designs in For All Mankind, an Apple TV Sci-Fi series.



    Read more:
    For All Mankind: space drama’s alternate history constructs a better vision of Nasa

    The European Space Agency (ESA), meanwhile, has contracted Maison Pierre Cardin to design the uniforms for training in its new lunar mission simulation facility, Luna, in Germany.

    These and many other similar collaborations represent a continuation of the longstanding interplay between art, fashion and space technology. Science fiction books and movies have both influenced and been influenced by advancements developed for space travel.

    Modern space fashion

    Photos and videos from inside the International Space Station (ISS) reveal that their intravehicular activity (IVA) suits are designed for functionality and comfort rather than style.

    It’s a sensible approach, as most crew stay there for extended periods to conduct scientific experiments. In contrast, two of the billionaires most associated with space tourism – Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson – take a different approach. In competing to promote their emerging space tourism ventures, their own trips to space have been carefully curated – with fashion playing a key role.

    From launch to landing, Bezos’ own suborbital space travel with Blue Origin in 2021 lasted 11 minutes, while Branson’s travel in Virgin Galactic’s VSS Unity lasted approximately 90 minutes, with four minutes of experience of weightlessness. However, they ensured that their “look” as they walked to their spacecraft would remain entrenched in our memories.

    Jimmy Fallon jokes about Bezos’s cowboy hat.

    Branson entrusted sports brand Under Armour to make a statement with a dark blue jumpsuit. Nine days later, Bezos appeared on the flight platform sporting a cowboy hat with his light blue flight suit.

    Branson’s crew won more fashion points with their sleek and streamlined suits – and he flew before Bezos – beating Blue Origin’s flight by nine days. Yet Bezos and his crew travelled to a higher altitude.

    As of the date of this article, Blue Origin has flown 58 people into space, whereas Virgin Galactic have flown 61 passengers, including crew. Space suits are an integral part of the experience. No less than a picture-perfect design will be expected for the high price tag.

    Elon Musk’s SpaceX, is the foremost private space enterprise of our time and arguably the one with the most political influence – although the effects of the recent fallout between SpaceX founder Elon Musk and the US president, Donald Trump, on the company remain uncertain.

    SpaceX has also stepped up its design efforts before the first-ever commercial astronaut spacewalk during the Polaris Dawn spaceflight, it unveiled its new EVA suit, dubbed the “space tuxedo”.

    SpaceX’s ‘space tuxedo’ suit reveal.

    During spacewalks, EVA suits are essential for keeping humans alive, making them a vital piece of wearable technology. The space tux was designed by Hollywood costume designer, Jose Fernandez, who also designed the suits for Iron Man and Captain America (an interesting twist given the film version of Iron Man’s alter ego, Tony Stark was reportedly partly inspired by Musk).

    Musk reportedly demanded both IVA and EVA suits to look “badass” while remaining practical. The mission was a success, as the four-member civilian team, led by billionaire Jared Isaacman, travelled further into space than any humans since the Apollo Missions to the moon.

    As we continue to explore the cosmos, fashion will continue to play a role in how we present ourselves to the universe. Whether for scientific missions or private ventures, how we dress for space will reflect our identity and aspirations as a species. This phenomenon did not begin with these glamorous star-studded women embarking on space ventures in their signature bold styles, nor will it end with the scrutiny and negative publicity they have faced.

    Berna Akcali Gur does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Katy Perry and her fellow space tourists weren’t exceptions – humanity has long cared about interplanetary style – https://theconversation.com/katy-perry-and-her-fellow-space-tourists-werent-exceptions-humanity-has-long-cared-about-interplanetary-style-256937

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Plant theft is often overlooked – that’s why it’s on the rise

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jenni Cauvain, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, Nottingham Trent University

    More than 180 plants were stolen from a well-loved public park in Nottingham called Arboretum in May 2025. This incident took place just days after volunteers had re-planted flowers and shrubs to repair damage from a previous theft in March. In April 2025, the nearby Forest Recreation Ground community garden was also targeted – roses and crops grown by volunteers were stolen, even a pond went missing.

    Plant theft may seem trivial, but environmental and wildlife crime tend to be overlooked. This is precisely one of the reasons why it is on the rise. Research suggests an annual growth rate in environmental crime of 5%-7%, making it the third largest criminal sector in the world.

    Globally, environmental crime has been valued at US$70-213 billion (£52-158 billion) annually. As with most crime, its true scale is difficult to estimate as it remains hidden. This is even more true for environmental crime that goes undetected.

    Plant thefts in Nottingham where I am based are small in comparison, but they tell the same story of lucrative illicit opportunities for criminals where law enforcement and potential sanctions are low. It’s most likely that people steal local plants to sell on for profit.

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    Another reason for overlooking this growing trend in wildlife crime is that perpetrators, as well as much of society, may feel that this is a “victimless crime”. Where plants, animals, watercourses or soil are “the victim”, people don’t feel as strongly because our ethics and value systems generally prioritise fellow humans and do not recognise non-humans as victims.

    People may be more likely to care about mammals such as elephants targeted in illegal ivory trade, but environmental crime permeates every community in the UK, as the recent Nottingham cases indicate.

    Stolen benefits

    As a researcher in environmental sociology, I believe wildlife crime and environmental damage should gain higher priority in terms of public attention, law enforcement and potential sanctions. Not only because of the intrinsic value that non-human nature has in its own right, but because of the value nature brings to us humans.

    Parks and green spaces known as “green infrastructure” are central to our wellbeing in cities. They bring environmental and social benefits in terms of air quality, urban heat island effect, surface flooding, carbon storage, biodiversity and health.

    After the COVID pandemic, the importance of accessing quality green spaces for our mental and physical wellbeing became even more apparent. Visits to parks can reduce loneliness and anxiety, as well as foster a sense of belonging and community.

    This has the potential to benefit the public purse too. Nottingham is currently involved in a national green social prescribing test and learn programme to demonstrate the benefits of nature-based activity.

    Public parks are often also significant in terms of cultural heritage. This is not a new discovery. Historically, public parks were introduced in cities to improve living conditions, quality of life and as educational resources. The Arboretum – the city centre park recently targeted by thieves – was the first such public park to open in Nottingham in 1845.

    When valued green spaces are the victim of crime, this is not a mere aesthetic problem. Wider social and environmental harms are inflicted upon communities and nature that depend on open green spaces to thrive.

    This matters in cities like Nottingham that suffer from high levels of deprivation and poor health outcomes. My own research has shown that while Nottingham is often celebrated for leadership in green initiatives, it suffers from deep-seated social inequality and deprivation that are long-term challenges.

    Social inequality is associated with crime and disorder in urban areas that creates a vicious cycle when the crimes target community assets such as public parks. It is beyond doubt that public parks being ransacked will negatively impact the quality of life in Nottingham.

    It is likely that these crimes get dismissed as a minor nuisance because “only plants” were stolen, but this attitude serves to mask the broader trend of growing environmental crime and the damage this brings to communities. Unfortunately, this will further contribute to the likelihood of such crimes spreading in future.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Jenni Cauvain does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Plant theft is often overlooked – that’s why it’s on the rise – https://theconversation.com/plant-theft-is-often-overlooked-thats-why-its-on-the-rise-259334

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: How soup might soothe symptoms and support recovery from colds and flu – new research

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sandra Lucas, Senior Lecturer, School of Health Sciences, University of the West of Scotland

    New Africa/Shutterstock

    For generations, chicken soup has been a go-to remedy for people feeling under the weather. It holds a cherished place in many cultures as a comforting treatment for colds and flu. But is there any real science behind the idea that soup can help us recover from respiratory infections?

    Alongside colleagues, I conducted a systematic review to explore this question, which examined the scientific evidence on the role of soup in managing acute respiratory tract infections, such as the common cold, influenza and COVID-19.

    Out of more than 10,000 records, we identified four high-quality studies involving 342 participants. These studies tested a variety of soups, including traditional chicken broth, barley soup and herbal vegetable blends. While still early-stage, the evidence was promising.

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    One study found that people who ate soup recovered up to 2.5 days faster than those who didn’t. Symptoms such as nasal congestion, sore throat and fatigue were milder. Some participants also showed reduced levels of inflammation-related markers: substances in the blood that rise when the immune system is fighting an infection.

    Specifically, levels of IL-6 and TNF-α – two proteins that help trigger inflammation – were lower in those who consumed soup. This suggests that soup may help calm an overactive immune response, potentially making symptoms less severe and recovery more comfortable.

    However, none of the studies examined how consuming soup influenced everyday outcomes of acute respiratory tract infections, such as whether people took fewer days off work or were less likely to end up in hospital. That’s a major gap in the evidence, and one that future research needs to address.

    There are several reasons soup may help. It’s warm, hydrating and typically nutrient-rich. Ingredients like garlic, onion, ginger and leafy greens have anti-inflammatory, antimicrobial, and immune-supportive properties. The warmth can also help loosen mucus, soothe sore throats and promote overall comfort during illness.

    Not just nourishment

    There’s also a strong cultural and behavioural aspect to food-based self-care: when people use food not just for nourishment, but as an intentional part of managing illness and promoting recovery.

    In many households, food becomes medicine not only because of its ingredients, but because it symbolises care, routine and reassurance.

    My previous research found that parents, in particular often turn to traditional remedies, like soup, as a first line of defence when illness strikes, often well before seeking professional medical advice.

    This reflects a growing interest in home remedies and the importance of culturally familiar treatments: remedies that feel safe, trusted and emotionally resonant because they’re part of a person’s upbringing or community norms. These kinds of treatments can increase confidence and comfort when self-managing illness at home.

    Food-based self-care may become increasingly important as pressure on healthcare systems continues to grow. With rising concerns about antimicrobial resistance, overstretched services, and lingering trauma from global pandemics, simple, evidence-informed home treatments can play a crucial role.

    They help people manage mild illness, reduce unnecessary antibiotic use and avoid placing additional strain on GPs or emergency departments for minor ailments that can be safely treated at home. Even a simple phone message about the common cold – “Most common colds get better in a few days and don’t need treatment from your GP” – has been shown to reduce appointment demand by 21%, highlighting how low-cost, home-based care could ease pressure across the system.

    The Local Government Association (LGA) reports that GPs handle approximately 57 million cases of minor conditions such as coughs and colds annually, costing the NHS over £2 billion a year. It argues that educating people about effective self-care could help save GPs an hour a day on average.

    Soup fits the bill

    So chicken soup is easy to prepare, affordable, safe for most people and widely recognised as a comforting, familiar home remedy for minor illness.

    Still, our review highlighted a clear need for more research. Future studies could examine standardised soup recipes and investigate whether particular combinations of nutrients or herbs work best: does chicken soup have the same effect as barley broth or vegetable potage? Is there a difference if it’s homemade versus canned?

    Just as importantly, future research needs to measure meaningful outcomes: how quickly people return to work or school, how well they sleep during illness, how they rate their comfort and energy levels, for example.

    Soup isn’t a replacement for medicine. But alongside rest, fluids and paracetamol, it might offer a simple way to ease symptoms and help people feel better.

    Sandra Lucas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How soup might soothe symptoms and support recovery from colds and flu – new research – https://theconversation.com/how-soup-might-soothe-symptoms-and-support-recovery-from-colds-and-flu-new-research-260960

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Over €10 billion has now been pledged for Ukraine’s recovery. It’s nowhere near enough

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

    Clearly angered by the intensification of Russia’s air campaign against Ukraine, Donald Trump has pivoted from the suspension of US military assistance to Ukraine to promising its resumption. Russia’s strikes on major cities killed more civilians in June than have died in any single previous month, according to UN figures.

    Over the past two weeks, the US president has made several disparaging comments about his relationship with Vladimir Putin, including on July 13 that the Russian president “talks nice and then he bombs everybody in the evening”.

    Not only will the US resume delivery of long-promised Patriot air defence missiles, Trump is now also reported to be considering a whole new plan to arm Ukraine, including with offensive capabilities. And he has talked about imposing new sanctions on Putin’s regime.

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    This is the background against which the eighth Ukraine Recovery Conference took place in Rome on July 10 and 11. The event, attended by many western leaders and senior business executives, was an important reminder that while the war against Ukraine will be decided on the battlefield, peace will only be won as the result of rebuilding Ukraine’s economy and society.

    Ending the war anytime soon and on terms favourable to Kyiv will require an enormous effort by Ukrainians and their European allies. But the country’s recovery afterwards will be no less challenging.

    According to the World Bank’s latest assessment, at the end of 2024 Ukraine’s recovery needs over the next decade stood at US$524 billion (£388 billion). And with every month the war continues, these needs are increasing. Ukraine’s three hardest-hit sectors are housing, transport and energy infrastructure, which between them account for around 60% of all damage.

    At the same time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided a relatively positive assessment of Ukraine’s overall economic situation at the end of June, forecasting growth of between 2% and 3% for 2025 – likely to grow to over 4% in 2026 and 2027. But the IMF also cautioned that this trajectory – and the country’s macroeconomic stability more generally – will remain heavily dependent on external support.

    Taking into account a new €2.3 billion package from the EU, consisting of €1.8 billion of loan guarantees and €580 million of grants, the cumulative pledge of over €10 billion (£8.7 billion) made by countries attending the Ukraine recovery conference is both encouraging and sobering.

    It is encouraging in the sense that Ukraine’s international partners remain committed to the country’s social and economic needs, not merely its ability to resist Russia on the battlefield.

    But it is also sobering that even these eye-watering sums of public money are still only a fraction of Ukraine’s needs. Even if the EU manages to mobilise its overall target of €40 billion for Ukraine’s recovery, by attracting additional contributions from other donors and the private sector, this would be less than 8% of Ukraine’s projected recovery needs as of the end of 2024.

    As the war continues and more of the (diminishing) public funding is directed towards defence expenditure by Kyiv’s western partners, this gap is likely to grow.

    Overcoming the trauma of war

    Money is not the only challenge for Ukraine recovery efforts. Rebuilding the country is not simply about undoing the physical damage.

    The social impact of Russia’s aggression is hard to overstate. Ukraine has been deeply traumatised as a society since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

    Generally reliable Ukrainian casualty counts – some 12,000 civilians and 43,000 troops killed since February 2022 – are still likely to underestimate the true number of people who have died as a direct consequence of the Russian aggression. And each of these will have left behind family members struggling to cope with their loss. In addition, there are hundreds of thousands of war veterans.

    Even before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there were nearly half a million veterans from the “frozen” conflict that followed Russia’s annexation of Crimea and incursion into eastern Ukraine. By the end of 2024, this number had more than doubled to around 1 million. Most of them have complex social, economic, medical and psychological needs that will have to be considered as part of a society-wide recovery effort.

    Returning refugees

    According to data from the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), there are also some 7 million refugees from Ukraine and 3.7 million internally displaced people (IDPs). This is equivalent to one quarter of the country’s population. The financial needs of UNHCR’s operations in Ukraine are estimated at $800 million in 2025, of which only 27% was funded as of the end of April.

    Once the fighting in Ukraine ends, refugees are likely to return in greater numbers. Their return will provide a boost to the country’s economic growth by strengthening its labour force and bringing with them skills and, potentially, investment. But like many IDPs and veterans, they may not be able to return to their places of origin, either because these are not inhabitable or remain under Russian occupation.

    Some returnees are likely to be viewed with suspicion or resentment by those Ukrainians who stayed behind and fought. Tensions with Ukrainians who survived the Russian occupation in areas that Kyiv may recover in a peace deal are also likely, given Ukraine’s harsh anti-collaboration laws.

    As a consequence, reintegration – in the sense of rebuilding and sustaining the country’s social cohesion – will be a massive challenge, requiring as much, if not more, of Ukraine’s partners’ attention and financial support as physical reconstruction and the transition from a war to a peace-time economy.

    Given the mismatch between what is needed and what has been provided for Ukraine’s recovery, one may well be sceptical about the value of the annual Ukraine recovery conferences. But, to the credit of their organisers and attendees, they recognise that the foundations for post-war recovery need to be built before the war ends. The non-military challenges of war and peace must not fall by the wayside amid an exclusive focus on battlefield dynamics.

    Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

    – ref. Over €10 billion has now been pledged for Ukraine’s recovery. It’s nowhere near enough – https://theconversation.com/over-10-billion-has-now-been-pledged-for-ukraines-recovery-its-nowhere-near-enough-260936

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Zambia facing a democratic crossroads as it enters a fresh constitutional crisis

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nic Cheeseman, Professor of Democracy, University of Birmingham

    The election of Zambia’s president, Hakainde Hichilema, in 2021 was widely interpreted as a victory for democracy. Zambia had suffered rising repression under former leader Edgar Lungu, but Hichilema promised democratic accountability. However, there are now concerns that his government is promoting constitutional changes that would entrench ruling-party dominance.

    Hichilema has proposed a bill that would increase the number of MPs by over 60%. It would also introduce elements of proportional representation to create a “mixed” electoral system, and create reserved seats for women, young people and those with disabilities.

    Zambia’s ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) claims the amendments are needed to correct historical exclusion. But many civil society groups believe this is “gender washing” – using inclusive rhetoric to mask an authoritarian agenda.

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    This scepticism is rooted in recent political developments and the text itself. The bill has emerged alongside other legislation that would tighten state control over civic and political space, at a time when infringements on fundamental freedoms in Zambia are growing.

    Many of the bill’s provisions are also vague and some undermine democratic checks and balances, while the progressive aspects are ill-conceived. This makes the proposed reforms, in the words of well-known Zambian constitutional expert O’Brien Kaaba: “deeply problematic and counterproductive”.

    I take no pleasure in saying this. The last time I wrote such an article about Zambia, it was to condemn the persecution of Hichilema after he was arrested in 2017 on trumped up treason charges. I was honoured to receive a letter of thanks upon his release.

    Like many Zambians and international observers, I was hopeful for the new administration. Yet, while the government has kept some campaign promises and negotiated a difficult deal on the country’s debt burden, efforts to restore democracy are now going backwards.

    Weakening a fragile system

    As prominent Zambian civil society leaders like Laura Miti and Linda Kasonde have warned, a number of the proposed changes could enable the government to all-but-guarantee itself a majority in the next elections scheduled for 2026.

    First, the bill would add 55 new constituency-based MPs – more than the total number to be elected through proportional representation. There are concerns that most of these new constituencies will be created in UPND strongholds, helping the party retain a majority even if it loses support.

    These fears have been magnified by the government’s failure to release the Boundary Delimitation Report, which sets out the redrawing of electoral boundaries. This has prevented independent scrutiny of the process and its motivations.

    Second, the rule that parliament must be dissolved 90 days before elections is also being revoked on the basis that this unfairly shortens office terms for MPs. Although MPs would not be supposed to conduct parliamentary business after this point, such a change would exacerbate existing problems. These include the use of government resources and vehicles in the ruling party’s campaign.

    And third, the constitutional amendment increases the number of MPs the president can appoint from eight to ten. In a system already adding reserved seats for underrepresented groups, this lacks justification. Taken together, these changes threaten to further empower the government and explain why a collective of civil society groups recently demanded “an immediate halt” to the process.

    At the same time, the government has not taken the opportunity to remove problematic clauses from Zambia’s constitution. These include the right of the president to dissolve the National Assembly if it fails to “reasonably” perform its duties.

    The government has justified the bill by emphasising the historical underrepresentation of women and marginalised groups in Zambian politics. This is a serious problem, but the bill will not fix it.

    The amendments only create 20 seats for women, 12 for young people, and three for those with disabilities. In a 256-seat chamber, this will do little to address the imbalance and falls well short of the Southern African Development Community’s target of 30% female representation.

    Poorly designed quotas can also reinforce marginalisation. Parties may push women toward quota seats, limiting their participation in regular constituency races. The amendment may thus create a new ceiling: if women only run in reserved seats, female representation would almost halve from 15% now to just 8% in the next parliament.

    A similar issue arises with the proportional representation system more broadly. When only a small proportion of seats are allocated this way, it fails to deliver the benefits of fairness that are associated with true proportionality.

    In other words, the constitutional amendment bill gives the appearance of inclusivity while carefully preserving the government’s incumbency advantage.

    A constitutional rush-job

    Perhaps the most striking flaw in the bill has been the process itself. The amendments have seen such scant public consultation that, in June, the Law Association of Zambia called for them to be withdrawn.

    This concern is shared by the constitutional court, which recently found the government had failed to meet constitutional requirements for public participation. The court recommended restarting a more inclusive process.

    Hichilema, perhaps aware of the likely verdict, preempted the ruling by announcing shortly before the court’s decision that he would pause the process to allow for wider consultation. This is a welcome, but insufficient, development. As the Law Association has argued, the amendments are so badly designed that they do not represent a viable foundation for constitutional review.

    Compounding its other flaws, the legislation is poorly written and vague. In many cases, it also fails to explain how new provisions would actually work in practice. The bill therefore needs to be withdrawn, not revised or deferred.

    Zambia needs a new constitution, but it deserves one that is rooted in evidence, consultation and democratic principles. Anything less threatens to undermine the country’s hard-won democratic gains and Hichilema’s own legacy.

    Nic Cheeseman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Zambia facing a democratic crossroads as it enters a fresh constitutional crisis – https://theconversation.com/zambia-facing-a-democratic-crossroads-as-it-enters-a-fresh-constitutional-crisis-260595

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Russian Imperial Movement: how a far-right group outlawed by the UK is spreading terror across Europe

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dale Pankhurst, PhD candidate and Tutor in the School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics, Queen’s University Belfast

    The British government announced in early July that a far-right group called the Russian Imperial Movement (RIM) will be banned under terrorism legislation. This will make it a criminal offence in the UK to be a member of the group or to express support for it.

    The RIM was at the centre of a string of letter bomb attacks targeting high-profile people and institutions in Spain in 2022. These included a bomb addressed to the official residence of Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez, which was intercepted by his security detail.

    Six more letter bombs were mailed to targets including the American and Ukrainian embassies in Madrid, military installations, and weapons manufacturing companies that supply arms to Ukraine. No one was killed in the attacks, which US officials considered to be acts of terrorism.

    Investigators soon announced that they suspected the RIM of being involved. US and European officials alleged that the group was directed to carry out the attacks by Russian intelligence officers.

    What is the RIM?

    The RIM is an ultra-nationalist, neo-nazi and white supremacist organisation based in Russia. It was created in 2002 by Stanislav Anatolyevich Vorobyev, a Russian national who is designated a terrorist by the US government.

    The group seeks to create a new Russian empire, and uses the Russian imperial flag as its sign. The previous Russian empire (1721-1917) encompassed all of modern-day Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Poland, Finland, Georgia, Armenia and the Baltic states, as well as parts of China.

    The movement does not recognise Ukrainian sovereignty. It sees Ukraine as part of what it calls a global Zionist conspiracy designed to undermine Russia and promote Jewish interests. The RIM has engaged in Holocaust denial and is formally outlawed in the US, Canada and now the UK.

    It also has a paramilitary wing called the Imperial Legions, which operates at least two training facilities in the Russian city of St. Petersburg. The US State Department believes these facilities are being used to train RIM members in woodland and urban assault, tactical weapons and hand-to-hand combat.

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    Denis Valliullovich Gariyev, the Imperial Legions’ leader, has in the past called on “young orthodox men” to join the Legions and defend Novorossiya – a term used to describe Russia’s claim over Ukraine. As of 2020, the Imperial Legions was estimated to have several thousand members.

    The RIM and its paramilitary wing have engaged in a wide range of activities and operations. These range from passive alliances with other far-right groups in Europe to providing paramilitary training for terrorist organisations. They have also participated directly in bomb attacks.

    Since 2014, when the conflict in eastern Ukraine began, the movement has trained and sent members as mercenaries to bolster the pro-Russian separatist groups fighting there. Its members have also actively supported the Russian armed forces in Ukraine after the full-scale invasion in 2022.

    After the invasion, posts related to the RIM on various social media platforms such as Vkontakte and Telegram revealed a ramping up of recruitment to join operations in Ukraine. Its fighters have posted videos of themselves in Ukraine armed with weaponry from sniper rifles to anti-tank missiles.

    According to analysts, the movement also maintains strong ties with the Russian private military company, the Wagner Group. Imperial Legions fighters are believed to have operated alongside Wagner mercenaries in Syria, Libya and possibly the Central African Republic.

    Outside of these activities, the movement has been active in supporting far-right organisations in Europe. These include the Nordic Resistance Movement in Sweden and similar groups in Germany, Spain and elsewhere.

    It provides training to these groups through its so-called “Partizan” (Russian for guerrilla) programme. The training includes bombmaking, marksmanship, medical and survival skills, military topography and other tactics. According to the UK government, the Partizan programme aims to increase the capacity of attendees to conduct terrorist attacks.

    Two Swedish nationals who took part in the programme later committed a series of bombings against refugee centres in Gothenburg, a city on Sweden’s west coast, in late 2016 and early 2017. The men were convicted in Sweden, with the prosecutor crediting RIM for their terrorist radicalisation and training.

    The RIM has also provided specific paramilitary training to far-right groups in Finland. Some members of these groups have fought on Russia’s side in Ukraine, while others have attempted to establish a Finnish cell of the international neo-nazi Atomwaffen Division. Police raids in 2023 also unveiled plans to assassinate the then Finnish prime minister, Sanna Marin.

    Links with the Russian state

    The movement has previously been critical of the Russian government. It initially believed the approach of Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, to Ukraine was too soft, while the group’s promotion of white supremacy and neo-nazism is at odds with Putin’s pragmatic nationalism within Russia.

    In 2012, the RIM even took part in discussions with other far-right groups in Russia to form an opposition movement called New Force to challenge Putin’s rule. However, the crisis in Ukraine that erupted in 2014 after pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych was ousted from power has caused the Kremlin and RIM’s political objectives to converge.

    Indeed, the group can now be viewed as one of the core Russian proxy paramilitaries operating in Ukraine at a time when Putin needs more recruits to continue the war. Western intelligence agencies now believe it has a relationship with officials from Russian state intelligence.

    It is difficult to pinpoint the total number of RIM fighters operating in Ukraine as the involvement of mercenary groups there is a closely guarded secret. However, based on previous intelligence reports on the group’s activities, it is reasonable to assume the number is in the hundreds to low thousands.

    The decision by the British government to proscribe the RIM indicates concern that the far-right group is increasing its operational capacity both in Ukraine and throughout Europe. With its extensive network, the movement will become an increasing threat to security if it is allowed to continue acting as a proxy for Putin’s foreign policy objectives.

    Dale Pankhurst does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Russian Imperial Movement: how a far-right group outlawed by the UK is spreading terror across Europe – https://theconversation.com/russian-imperial-movement-how-a-far-right-group-outlawed-by-the-uk-is-spreading-terror-across-europe-260825

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: How does the PKK’s disarmament affect Turkey, Syria and Iraq?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Pinar Dinc, Associate Professor of Political Science, Department of Political Science and Researcher, Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies, Lund University

    The historic disarmament ceremony on July 11 where members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) laid down their arms marked a pivotal moment in a decades-long conflict in Turkey. The ceremony was described by many who attended as a profoundly symbolic and emotional day that may signal the beginning of a new era.

    During the disarmament ceremony in Sulaymaniyah in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, 26 PKK guerrillas alongside four senior commanders and leaders of the movement, symbolically laid aid down their arms and burned them. The audience included officials from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), plus politicians, journalists and international observers.

    For more than four decades the PKK has been embroiled in an armed conflict with Turkey that has claimed more than 40,000 lives and shaped Kurdish identity and politics across the region.

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    The PKK disarmament ceremony also could mark a new era for the Kurds, one of the largest stateless groups in the world with over 30 million people living across Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. The PKK has said it will now shift from armed resistance to political dialogue and regional cooperation.

    Strikingly, the day after the ceremony, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan acknowledged the state’s historical failures in addressing the Kurdish issue. He listed past abuses of Kurds – state-sponsored abductions and extrajudicial violence, the burning of villages and the forced displacement of families – as examples of policies that had fuelled, rather than quelled, the conflict.

    “We all paid the price for these mistakes” he said. He later added: “As of yesterday, Turkey began to close a long, painful and tear-filled chapter.” Erdoğan also announced the formation of a parliamentary commission to oversee the legal steps of the peace process, suggesting a much-needed institutionalised and transparent approach than in previous attempts.

    This hints that the road ahead might include a period of transitional justice. This could compose of different tools used by societies to address past violence and human rights abuses during a shift from conflict to peace and democracy. These may include legal actions such as trials, as well as other efforts to heal and rebuild trust in society.

    Erdoğan also underlined the regional dimension of the agreement: “The issue is not only that of our Kurdish citizens, but also of our Kurdish brothers and sisters in Iraq and Syria. We are discussing this process with them, and they are very pleased as well.”

    PKK fighters take part in a symbolic peace ceremony.

    International dimensions

    While the PKK may be laying down arms, the Kurdish political movement should not be expected to disappear. On the contrary, it is likely to become more active in the democratic sphere — both in Turkey and in other parts of the Middle East where Kurdish people live. It is no secret that the current peace process is the result of shifting geopolitical realities.

    Growing tensions between the US and Iran, Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza, the ousting of the Assad regime in Syria, and shifting power dynamics across the region have all contributed to a geopolitical landscape in which prolonged armed conflict has become increasingly unsustainable — for both Turkey and the PKK. In this context, the current peace process is not merely a domestic initiative.

    It represents a strategic recalibration in a rapidly changing Middle East. For Turkey, stabilising its southeastern border and reducing internal security pressures is essential amid regional volatility.


    Shutterstock

    Turkey has long maintained strong ties with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) (the official ruling body of the Kurdistan region) in Iraq. However, the situation for Kurds in Syria remains more complex, as Turkey continues to view the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (a region that has in effect been self governing since 2012 and where many Kurds live) as a security threat along its border.

    Meanwhile, negotiations continue between the new Syrian government under current president, Ahmed Hussein al-Shara, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Kurdish-led coalition in Syria, which has been historically backed by the US. The SDF seeks to maintain its military autonomy and have its own independent political system — both of which are opposed by Damascus.

    Western nations, particularly the US, remain influential in these talks. The US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria, Thomas Barrack, is reportedly uneasy with the lack of progress in the talks between al-Shara, and the SDF. He said: “The SDF, who has been a valued partner for America in the fight against ISIS, well-respected, bright, articulate, has to come to the conclusion that there’s one country, there’s one nation, there’s one people, and there’s one army.”

    Another factor here is that a strong Arab-Turkish-Kurdish alliance is unlikely to align with Israeli strategic interests, which may favour a more fragmented Kurdish presence in the region.

    For now, Turkey faces the complex task of overseeing a comprehensive disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration process. This requires not only the decommissioning of weapons and the disbanding of armed units, but also the social and political reintegration of former combatants. The success of this will depend on legal reforms, institutional trust and a genuine commitment to democratic inclusion.

    Erdoğan has been critised for his government’s ongoing non-democratic practices such the appointment of state trustees who replace elected officials and the imprisonment of elected officials.

    And, despite the symbolic disarmament, the Turkish government persists in using the words “struggle against terrorism” — an approach that risks undermining the peace process by criminalising political dialogue and delegitimising Kurdish demands.

    Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan reiterated that the PKK’s broader network, including the Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK), a group representing Kurds across Iraq, Syria and Turkey, must cease to pose a threat. “We will remain vigilant until every component of the KCK is no longer a danger to our nation and region,” he stated.

    For the PKK, the changing alliances and uncertainties in Syria and Iraq may have made armed struggle a less viable path forward. Yet the sustainability of peace will depend on more than disarmament. It will require ending the criminalisation of Kurds in political institutions and within civil society.

    What comes next will determine whether this moment becomes a historic turning point or another missed opportunity.

    Pinar Dinc is the principal investigator of the ECO-Syria project, which receives funding from the Strategic Research Area: The Middle East in the Contemporary World (MECW) at the Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies, Lund University, Sweden.

    – ref. How does the PKK’s disarmament affect Turkey, Syria and Iraq? – https://theconversation.com/how-does-the-pkks-disarmament-affect-turkey-syria-and-iraq-261113

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: We can learn a lot from Troy’s trash

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephan Blum, Research associate, Institute for Prehistory and Early History and Medieval Archaeology, University of Tübingen

    Beneath the epic tales of heroes and gods, Troy’s true story is written in something far less glamorous – its rubbish.

    When we think of Troy, we imagine epic battles, valiant deeds, cunning tricks and the wrath of gods. Thanks to Homer’s Iliad, the city is remembered as a stage for romance and heroism.

    But long before Paris stole Helen and Achilles raged on the battlefield, the people of bronze age Troy lived ordinary lives – with extraordinary consequences. They built, cooked, stored, traded and, crucially, threw things away. And they did it right where they lived.

    Today, waste is whisked away quickly – out of sight, out of mind. But in bronze age Troy (3000–1000BC), trash stayed close, often accumulating in domestic dumping grounds for generations.

    Having spent more than 16 summers excavating and analysing the bronze age layers of Troy, I’ve learned to read the city’s history this waste.

    Hundreds of thousands of animal bones from cattle, sheep, fish – even turtles – were found alongside vast quantities of pottery shards, ash, food scraps, and human waste. Sometimes, these layers were reused to level floors or build walls, showing how closely intertwined daily life and refuse management were.

    Archaeology’s dirty secret

    This wasn’t laziness or neglect, it was pure pragmatism. In a world without rubbish trucks or sanitation systems, managing refuse was neither chaotic nor careless, but a collective, spatially negotiated – and surprisingly strategic – effort.

    The excavations I have worked on as part of the University of Tübingen’s Troy Project, which has been going on since 1988, have revealed just how deliberate these routines were. Where people chose to dump, or not to dump, speaks volumes about status, social roles, and community boundaries. Waste is the diary no one meant to write, yet it records the intimate rhythms of daily life with unfiltered clarity.

    Far from a nuisance, Troy’s waste is an archaeologist’s treasure trove.

    Over nearly 2,000 years, Troy ended up with 15 meters of built-up debris. Archaeologists can see nine major building phases in it, each made up of hundreds of thin layers, which formed as people lived their everyday lives. These layers act like snapshots, quietly recording how the city changed over time. Some capture hearth cleanings, others record the rebuilding of entire city quarters.

    By analysing the layers and their ratios of bones to pottery, ash concentration, presence of storage jars, grinding stones, or production debris, specific spaces of activity become visible: kitchens, workshops, storage areas, rubbish pits. What appears chaotic turns out to be a carefully structured map of everyday routines – showing where meals were prepared, tools made, and discarded objects left behind.

    A schematic cross-section through the settlement mound of Troy, revealing centuries of construction, destruction, and renewal.
    University of Tübingen/Frank Schweizer, CC BY-NC-SA

    The story these remains tell is one of profound transformation. Troy began as a modest agrarian settlement, shaped by the steady rhythms of farming, herding, and small-scale craft. Over time, it grew into a thriving regional centre.

    The archaeological record, rich in refuse, traces this long arc of change. Exotic imports fashioned from stones such as carnelian and lapis lazuli begin to appear, revealing distant trade connections. Specialised metalworking tools emerge alongside monumental architecture. some buildings stretched nearly 30 metres, signalling growing ambitions and expanding capabilities.

    This rise unfolded gradually, reflected not just in grander buildings, but in shifting tools, trade, and how people dealt with what they left behind. Waste management became more organised, with designated areas for different types of waste. This reflects broader shifts in how the community structured space and managed its economy.

    Yet this ascent was interrupted. By the mid-third millennium BC, signs that things were becoming smaller appear. Architecture simplifies, household inventories shrink, production debris declines suggesting economic slowdown or political instability.

    Still, Troy endured. By the mid-second millennium BC, the city revived. Refined ceramics, luxury imports and evidence of social complexity marked a new chapter of recovery and reinvention. This splendid settlement later became the stage for Homer’s Trojan War where Greek warriors faced the daunting task of climbing towering mounds of debris built up over centuries just to reach the palaces.

    A heap worth climbing

    These insights allow us to see Troy not just as a city of walls and towers, but as a living organism shaped by daily routines, unspoken norms and social negotiation. The waste left behind is a remarkably honest archive of bronze age society – beneath myths, stones, and poetry.

    Troy’s trash heaps are the bronze age’s search history. To know what mattered 4,500 years ago, don’t ask poets – ask the garbage. From broken tools to shared meals, from imported luxuries to scraps, this waste reveals the pulse of everyday life and society’s evolving structure.

    Ironically, these mundane refuse layers preserved the bronze age world for us. Without them, we’d know far less about early Troy’s people. Their depth and composition trace changes in economy, technology, and social structure. From scraps to towers of pottery shards, waste archaeology is key to understanding early urban complexity.

    So next time you picture Achilles storming Troy’s gates, remember: the heroes might have been divine, but their city smelled very human.

    Stephan Blum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. We can learn a lot from Troy’s trash – https://theconversation.com/we-can-learn-a-lot-from-troys-trash-260613

    MIL OSI Analysis –