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Category: Analysis Assessment

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: From raw garlic cloves to cayenne pepper: why ‘natural’ DIY skincare can leave you burnt, itchy – or worse

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adam Taylor, Professor of Anatomy, Lancaster University

    Krakenimages.com/Shutterstock

    Scrolling through social media, it’s hard to miss influencers raiding the pantry for “natural” beauty fixes: baking-soda scrubs, garlic spot sticks, cayenne masks that promise to tighten pores and banish dullness.

    The appeal is obvious. Why pay for a dermatologist-tested cream when everyday ingredients come with antimicrobial or exfoliating properties? Yet what looks sensible in a 30-second reel can translate into painful, sometimes dangerous, DIY disasters.

    Just because it’s edible doesn’t mean it’s safe to put on your skin.

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    Garlic, chilli, turmeric and their spice-rack neighbours may contain potent bioactive compounds, but in raw form they are unrefined, unstable and frequently far too harsh for the delicate acid mantle that shields human skin.

    Professional cosmetic chemists isolate biologically active plant compounds, purify them and blend them at precisely calibrated doses suited to the skin’s natural pH. A spoonful of cayenne or a pinch of bicarbonate of soda offers none of that control. Slapping pantry powders on your face risks chemical burns, rashes or long-term damage.

    Concentration is the first stumbling block. A teaspoon of baking soda, for instance, has nothing in common with a safety-tested cleanser that might contain less than 1% sodium bicarbonate balanced by humectants (moisture-attracting ingerdients) and acids.

    Likewise, a swipe of raw cayenne delivers an unpredictable hit of capsaicin, the fiery molecule that dermatologists use in nerve-pain creams, but only at strictly managed strengths.

    Pure kitchen spices also arrive with their own microorganisms: they are agricultural products processed in bulk. Once mixed with water or oil to create a mask they can become bacterial broths, inviting infection rather than a healthy glow.

    Baking soda: more alkaline than your skin can handle

    Baking soda illustrates how quickly a “harmless” staple can upset skin chemistry. Celebrated online for mild antibacterial and antifungal properties, sodium bicarbonate is, in fact, highly alkaline.

    Normal skin sits in the acidic range of 4.5 to 5.5. Apply a thick alkaline paste and the pH shoots upward, disrupting friendly microbes and triggering irritation and breakouts.

    Studies in humans show a bicarbonate paste does not relieve psoriasis itch or redness. On babies, baking-soda soaks for nappy rash have caused hypokalaemic metabolic alkalosis (low potassium levels in the blood), leading to seizures and coma.

    Some influencers say that the same paste that soothes burns is safe, but it can be dangerous. There are reports of baking soda causing severe skin damage – such as deep burns and even tissue death – when it was applied to broken or injured skin.

    Even more alarming are posts touting it as a DIY cancer therapy, on the theory that it “neutralises” tumour acidity. High oral doses have disrupted heart rhythm and caused death.

    Garlic: ancient remedy, modern irritant

    Garlic’s folklore as a “natural antibiotic” fares no better. Raw cloves are loaded with sulphur compounds that behave like caustic chemicals. Direct application has produced allergic or irritant dermatitis and even third-degree burns on lips and eyelids.

    Any scars may outlast the pimple they were supposed to heal.

    Research on allicin, a natural compound in garlic, shows promise as an antimicrobial and heart-protective agent – potentially helping to lower blood pressure, reduce inflammation and prevent heart disease. But that study used purified extracts in lab conditions – not a clove rubbed straight onto skin.

    Chilli peppers: capsaicin isn’t a beauty hack

    Chillies present an even hotter hazard. Capsaicin is licensed for nerve-pain creams yet even pharmacists warn of burning, redness and swelling. Home kitchens, obviously, lack a pharmacist.

    Cooks who handle chillies daily can develop Hunan hand, an intensely painful, burning dermatitis. Despite this, some beauty hacks still recommend cayenne masks for radiance. Airborne or topical capsaicin stings the eyes, triggering involuntary spasms and long exposure can cause lasting corneal injury.

    Inhaling the dust provokes coughing fits and, over time, lung inflammation. Because capsaicin penetrates the skin, repeated use can damage peripheral nerve fibres – dulling your ability to feel heat or pain – and disrupt normal blood flow, which may lead to tissue irritation, delayed healing or increased sensitivity. It can also affect blood pressure, especially in people with underlying health issues.

    A notorious example underscored the danger: a woman suffered agonising vaginal burns after unknowingly using a tampon contaminated with pepper spray that had leaked in her handbag. Even mustard powder can deliver second-degree burns when misapplied.

    Spice rack roulette: staining, burning, dermatitis

    Spices thought to be milder are hardly innocent. Cinnamon is a trendy lip-plumper, yet dermatologists document contact dermatitis and chemical burns. Ginger “glow” masks leave many users with red, irritated skin.

    Clove oil, hyped as a spot cure, has produced caustic injuries. Saffron can cause allergic rashes, while turmeric’s curcumin, celebrated online for anti-inflammatory benefits, often delivers dermatitis and bright yellow staining that lingers for days.

    Dermatologists recommend patch-testing any new skincare product, even “pure” essential oils, on the inner arm for 48 hours.

    Powdered spices also wander: a cinnamon scrub can fill the air with irritant dust that settles in eyes or airways, leaving you sneezing and sore instead of glowing.

    Respect your barrier

    Dermatologists emphasise the importance of protecting the skin barrier: gentle, pH-balanced cleansers and moisturisers help maintain the acid mantle that defends against germs. Your doctor or pharmacist can guide you toward proven plant-based ingredients like niacinamide, aloe vera, or colloidal oatmeal, all of which offer skin benefits without the sting.

    Next time an influencer urges you to “ditch chemicals” or promote “clean beauty” and scoop your skincare out of a spice jar, remember, everything is a chemical. Some belong on your dinner plate – very few belong on your face.

    Adam Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. From raw garlic cloves to cayenne pepper: why ‘natural’ DIY skincare can leave you burnt, itchy – or worse – https://theconversation.com/from-raw-garlic-cloves-to-cayenne-pepper-why-natural-diy-skincare-can-leave-you-burnt-itchy-or-worse-260264

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Donor-egg pregnancies may come with higher rates of serious complications – here’s what you need to know

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Catherine Meads, Professor of Health, Anglia Ruskin University

    takasu/Shutterstock

    More women than ever are carrying babies conceived with someone else’s egg – but few are told that this might carry greater health risks.

    Pregnancies involving an embryo that doesn’t share the pregnant woman’s DNA are becoming more common. For many, it’s a path to parenthood that would otherwise be closed.

    But emerging evidence suggests that these pregnancies may come with higher rates of complications, including pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes and preterm birth, and that women are often not given the full picture before treatment.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    As the fertility industry expands and diversifies, it’s time to ask whether patients are being adequately informed about the risks of carrying another woman’s egg – and whether more caution is needed in how these options are presented.

    There are three situations in which a woman may carry another woman’s egg in her uterus.

    The most common is when a woman cannot produce her own eggs but has a functioning uterus. In this case, donor eggs and in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) offer the only route to pregnancy.

    The other two situations involve fertile women carrying a donated egg on behalf of someone else. This happens in cases of gestational surrogacy, where a surrogate carries a baby genetically unrelated to her, or in reciprocal IVF, also known as ROPA or co-IVF. In the latter, one woman in a same-sex couple (or a trans man) donates her egg to her partner, so that both have a biological connection to the child.

    In IVF, fertilisation occurs outside the body and the resulting embryo is transferred into the uterus. But what happens when the egg in the uterus has no genetic similarity to the woman carrying it? Could this cause complications for her or the baby?

    To answer that question, we need to compare outcomes in these situations to pregnancies where the egg shares approximately 50% of the mother’s DNA, either through natural conception or own-egg IVF. Early evidence suggests that having someone else’s egg in the uterus is associated with a higher risk of obstetric complications, including pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes and preterm birth.

    There are three key comparisons to make. First, donor-egg IVF v own-egg IVF. For infertile women using donor eggs, the most relevant comparison is IVF with their own eggs.

    Second, gestational v traditional surrogacy. In gestational surrogacy, the surrogate carries a donor egg, while in traditional surrogacy, she uses her own. Outcomes can also be compared with the surrogate’s previous natural pregnancies.

    Third, reciprocal IVF v own-egg IVF. In same-sex couples, reciprocal IVF can be compared to own-egg IVF to assess risks.

    A review of 11 studies comparing donor-egg IVF to own-egg IVF found that donor-egg pregnancies had significantly higher rates of hypertensive disorders in the mother, as well as preterm birth and babies that were small for their gestational age.

    A separate review focusing on pre-eclampsia in singleton IVF pregnancies found the condition occurred in 11.2% of donor-egg pregnancies, compared to 3.9% of own-egg pregnancies.

    For women who can only become pregnant using a donor egg, these risks may be worth accepting. But it’s important that women are made aware of the potential complications, especially if carrying twins, which further increases risks.

    Gestational surrogacy

    With colleagues, I conducted a review of eight studies. The research suggests that gestational surrogacy (donor egg) is linked to higher rates of hypertensive disorders and gestational diabetes compared to traditional surrogacy (surrogate’s own egg) or previous natural pregnancies.

    So why is gestational surrogacy often favoured by clinicians and intended parents alike? For some doctors, it can offer greater medical and ethical clarity; for some parents, it can reduce legal and emotional complications. A common assumption is that genetically related surrogates may be more likely to want to keep the baby – but research shows this is not the case. Surrogates rarely seek to retain custody, regardless of genetic connection.

    Evidence on reciprocal IVF is even more limited. A 2022 study of 21 women who underwent reciprocal IVF found that hypertensive disorders occurred in 23.8%, compared to 12.9% of the 62 heterosexual women using their own egg, and gestational diabetes occurred in 9.5% v 1.6%.

    The only study directly comparing reciprocal IVF to own-egg IVF in same-sex female couples is an unpublished conference abstract, which found a higher miscarriage rate (19% v 14%), but reported no maternal or infant outcomes.

    Despite limited data, fertility companies often market gestational surrogacy and reciprocal IVF as reasonably safe options. However, much of the research comes from clinicians affiliated with fertility clinics.

    Crucially, there is still no strong evidence showing that fertile women carrying another woman’s egg have better outcomes than infertile women undergoing the same. But a lack of evidence is not the same as evidence of safety.

    In some cases, pregnancy using one’s own egg may still be possible. For example, fertile women in same-sex couples may only need sperm donation to conceive naturally, rather than going through IVF.

    Women deserve full, unbiased information about the risks. That includes knowing that carrying someone else’s egg may increase the likelihood of pregnancy complications. They can then make informed decisions about whether the potential benefits outweigh the risks.

    Catherine Meads does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Donor-egg pregnancies may come with higher rates of serious complications – here’s what you need to know – https://theconversation.com/donor-egg-pregnancies-may-come-with-higher-rates-of-serious-complications-heres-what-you-need-to-know-259855

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Horseflies and wasps and jellyfish – how to stay safe from stings and bites this summer

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dan Baumgardt, Senior Lecturer, School of Physiology, Pharmacology and Neuroscience, University of Bristol

    Anna Kuzmenko/Shutterstock

    Despite the glorious arrival of summer, there’s definitely a sting in the season’s tail – quite literally. Even in the UK, it’s not just sunburn we need to watch out for. From nettles to jellyfish, summer brings a full cast of prickly, buzzing, biting villains.

    My own back patio is armed with an arsenal of citronella candles and incense sticks to fend them off – not just a lifestyle choice, but a survival strategy for someone as jumpy as me around insects.

    Let’s break down the main culprits.

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    Plant-based stings: nettles

    First up, the humble but mighty common nettle, which thrives in hedgerows and gardens, often reaching impressive heights of up to two metres by midsummer. Their sting comes from tiny hairs called trichomes, which inject histamine and other irritants into the skin as a form of defence.

    Histamine causes the classic signs of inflammation: redness, swelling, heat and pain – all of which are evident in the raised, red rash known as urticaria (or hives). Unsurprisingly, the Latin name for the nettle family is urtica, meaning “to sting.”

    And what about that old remedy of rubbing a dock leaf on the sting? Honestly, good luck identifying one among the 200-plus species. While the sap might offer a mild soothing effect, there’s no strong evidence of an active compound that reduces symptoms.

    If it works for you, great, but calamine lotion or over-the-counter antihistamines are far more reliable. And use some form of protection in the first place – if you’re clearing them from your garden, or foraging to make nettle pesto, wear gloves and proceed carefully.

    Insects: bees, wasps and horseflies

    As temperatures rise, so do the number of stinging insects like bees and wasps, not to mention the dreaded horseflies. While most don’t sting unless provoked (a mantra I repeat to myself regularly), when they do, it can be unpleasant.

    Most stings cause local irritation – simple pain relief and antihistamines usually do the trick here. But sometimes, either the original sting or subsequent scratching can cause infections.

    Cellulitis is a deeper skin infection that can spread quickly if untreated. While milder cases may clear up with oral antibiotics, some infections can be serious – even life threatening – and require hospital care.

    If a sting site or the surrounding skin becomes red, warm, painful or swollen, seek urgent medical advice. And if you feel unwell with symptoms like fevers, chills or a racing heart, treat it as an emergency.

    Insect stings can also trigger anaphylaxis, a life-threatening allergic reaction. In the UK, stings account for around ten deaths per year: a small, but very sobering figure. Always take anaphylactic symptoms like facial swelling, difficulty breathing or dizziness seriously – and call 999 immediately.

    Ticks: small bites, big risks

    Tick bites are also more common in summer, thanks to more exposed skin and time spent in tall grass or woodlands. Ticks are tiny – often smaller than a poppy seed – and can be easily missed until they become engorged with blood.

    They’re usually harmless, but some ticks carry diseases like Lyme disease, a bacterial infection that can cause fatigue, joint pain and, if untreated, serious complications affecting the nervous system or heart.

    Ticks can also spread tick-borne encephalitis, a viral infection that can lead to inflammation of the brain, though it’s very rare in the UK. Watch out for the telltale bullseye rash and flu-like symptoms after a bite – and seek urgent medical advice if they appear.

    To remove a tick, use fine-tipped tweezers, gripping as close to the skin as possible and pulling steadily. Don’t twist. You want the whole tick out, legs and all. And don’t squeeze its body, as this can force potentially infected fluids into your bloodstream, raising the risk of conditions like Lyme disease, among others.

    Marine stings: jellyfish and friends

    And finally, the unexpected seaside sting. Coastal waters can play host to a range of jellyfish, from the mildly irritating to the impressively painful.

    Most UK species cause minor rashes, but be wary of the lion’s mane and the occasional (though rare) portuguese men o’war – not technically a jellyfish, but still best avoided.

    Even jellyfish washed up on shore can sting, sometimes for days. If stung, rinse the area with seawater (not fresh water), or soak in warm water. Avoid rubbing or using urine – yes, that scene in Friends is not medically sound. Peeing on a jellyfish sting can make things worse by triggering more venom release from stuck tentacles.

    If tentacles are still stuck to the skin, use tweezers or the edge of a credit card to remove them gently. Don’t use your bare hand – you could end up stinging that too.

    And like insect stings, jellyfish can rarely trigger anaphylactic shock. If someone shows symptoms, don’t hesitate to seek emergency help.

    From the garden to the seaside, summer has plenty of sting — but being prepared can make all the difference. Whether it’s nettles, bees or ticks, the best approach is prevention (think gloves, repellent and awareness), followed by prompt treatment if needed.

    Use calamine or antihistamines for rashes, and tweezers for tick or jellyfish tentacle removal. Keep a close eye out for signs of infection or allergic reaction and always seek medical advice if something doesn’t feel right.

    Dan Baumgardt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Horseflies and wasps and jellyfish – how to stay safe from stings and bites this summer – https://theconversation.com/horseflies-and-wasps-and-jellyfish-how-to-stay-safe-from-stings-and-bites-this-summer-260670

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Trump’s Brazil tariffs point more to his enduring bond with far-right Bolsonaro than economic concerns

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Rafael R. Ioris, Professor of Modern Latin America History, University of Denver

    U.S. President Donald Trump and then-Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro attend a joint news conference at the White House on March 19, 2019. Jim Lo Scalzo-Pool/Getty Images

    After much back-and-forth over several months, President Donald Trump announced on July 9, 2025, that he planned to levy a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports to the United States. While Brazilian authorities, along with leaders of most other countries, have been expecting new tariffs given their centrality to Trump’s economic agenda, the announcement seemingly caught Brazilian officials off guard, as trade negotiations between the two nations were still ongoing.

    Brazil President Lula da Silva was quick in reacting, stating his country could respond in kind, if tariffs indeed come into effect on Aug. 1.

    There has been much speculation about the reasons behind Trump’s decision and timing, with some onlookers noting the proximity to the recent meeting of the BRICS nations, a grouping of emerging economies, including Brazil, which had already drawn Trump’s ire. Others argued that this was a protective measure to defend key U.S. industries, such as steel, which have been facing continued difficulties against cheaper products from Brazil.

    The clearest answer, however, came from Trump himself.

    In a letter to Lula, the U.S. president indicated that his main grievance with Brazil is in fact the trial that former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro faces in front of that country’s highest court. The former far-right firebrand is charged for refusing to recognize the result of the last presidential election in October 2022 and for allegedly having led an attempted coup against the democratic institutions and rule of law in January 2023. If convicted, Bolsonaro and some of his closest associates could face long prison sentences.

    A history of meddling

    The only economic rationale mentioned in Trump’s letter, that of a deficit that his country is said to face with Brazil, is belied by the numbers. The U.S. has sustained consistent surpluses in trade with the South American nation for close to two decades now.

    And Steve Bannon, Trump’s former adviser, active cheerleader and primary conduit between the Trump camp and Bolsonaro, was even more blunt than the U.S. president. In an interview with one of Brazil’s main news site, he stated: “Stop the trial and we will reverse the tariffs.”

    Bolsonaro meets with Trump during the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28, 2019.
    Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

    As the history of U.S.-Latin American relations ably demonstrates, this is far from the first time Washington has meddled in the region in order to satisfy its own political proclivities. Indeed, particularly during the Cold War, a slew of U.S. decision-makers actively intervened to support friendly right-wing regimes or to otherwise remove from power administrations considered unacceptably independent.

    This was nonetheless the first time in recent history that the official U.S. position is that a foreign nation should face harsh economic punishment unless its current government illegally circumvent the judicary’s constitutional role to stop a major investigation against someone accused of high crimes.

    Trump-Bolsonaro: Mutual admiration

    Of course, Trump’s overt support for Bolsonaro is not surprising, nor new. Their relationship of mutual admiration and ideological affinity hearkens back to the latter’s first presidential campaign in 2018, when he was labeled, to great reciprocal delight, the “Trump of the Tropics.”

    During the subsequent two years when their terms coincided (2019-2000), both men pledged to have a mutual special relationship, though to little consequence – no consequential bilateral projects were put in place.

    Both leaders also share the experience of having failed to obtain a second consecutive term and having supported the derailment of the peaceful transfer of power.

    Now that Trump is back in power, Bolsonaro hopes that the U.S. president will come to his rescue.

    Seeking to obtain explicit support, Bolsonaro’s third son, Eduardo, a member of Brazil’s lower house of congress and his family’s most eloquent international voice, took a leave from his legislative duties and moved to the U.S. early this year. He did so to lobby on behalf of his father based on the fallacious argument that Lula is a left-wing dictator, that Bolsonaro faces a politically motivated trial, and that the U.S. government should act against Lula’s administration.

    Given Trump’s tariff notice and the explicit reasons he gave for it, it seems safe to assume that Eduardo’s actions paid dividends.

    Which direction will Brazil head?

    Like the U.S., Brazil is deeply fractured along left and right political lines. So it was no surprise that the local reactions to Trump’s announcement manifested along ideological camps.

    Despite their leader’s legal travails, Bolsonaro’s supporters remain very influential in politics, the media and among important economic areas, such as the agribusiness sector. Whether Trump’s decision will serve to help people rally around and in support of Lula and against a case of foreign interference is unclear. Lula’s initial pronouncement that Brazil would respond in kind was seen favorably among his supporters, though the opposition and many in the media pinned the blame on Lula for not being able to forge compromise with the Trump administration.

    Key industrialists in the powerful state of Sao Paulo, where Bolsonaro’s powerful ally Tarcisio de Freitas serves as governor, will be the first ones affected by the new tariffs. But the pain will likely spread into other activities, including in the countryside.

    And given that the bulk of the country’s agricultural exports go to China rather than to the U.S., the important question is whether these powerful exporters will act pragmatically and work with Lula to enlarge trade with the Asian giant and other countries, or whether they will continue to act ideologically and continue to support Bolsonaro’s enduring partnership with Trump against their own economic interests.

    Dialogue has been a hallmark of Brazil’s diplomacy, and even in the middle of these latest heated diplomatic exchanges, Lula reiterated his willingness to negotiate. It is unclear, though, whether the Trump adminstration’s actions in Latin America will be conducted on the basis of rationality and actual numbers, or if they will indeed bring back some old ideologically driven behaviors of picking sides in the internal political disputes of foreign nations. Should one consider at face value Trump’s latest letter, there is reason for concern.

    Rafael R. Ioris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s Brazil tariffs point more to his enduring bond with far-right Bolsonaro than economic concerns – https://theconversation.com/trumps-brazil-tariffs-point-more-to-his-enduring-bond-with-far-right-bolsonaro-than-economic-concerns-260993

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Cleaner air in east Asia may have driven recent acceleration in global warming, our new study indicates

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Laura Wilcox, Professor, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading

    A traffic jam in Beijing in China, where air pollution has drastically reduced. Hung Chung Chih/Shutterstock

    Global warming has picked up pace since around 2010, leading to the recent string of record warm years. Why this is happening is still unclear, and among the biggest questions in climate science today. Our new study reveals that reductions in air pollution – particularly in China and east Asia – are a key reason for this faster warming.

    Cleanup of sulphur emissions from global shipping has been implicated in past research. But that cleanup only began in 2020, so it’s considered too weak to explain the full extent of this acceleration. Nasa researchers have suggested that changes in clouds could play a role, either through reductions in cloud cover in the tropics or over the North Pacific.

    One factor that has not been well quantified, however, is the effect of monumental efforts by countries in east Asia, notably China, to combat air pollution and improve public health through strict air quality policies. There has already been a 75% reduction in east Asian sulphur dioxide emissions since around 2013, and that cleanup effort picked up pace just as global warming began accelerating.

    Our study addresses the link between east Asian air quality improvements and global temperature, building on the efforts of eight teams of climate modellers across the world.

    We have found that polluted air may have been masking the full effects of global warming. Cleaner air could now be revealing more of the human-induced global warming from greenhouse gases.

    In addition to causing millions of premature deaths, air pollution shields the Earth from sunlight and therefore cools the surface. There has been so much air pollution that it has held human-induced warming in check by up to 0.5°C over the last century.

    With the cleanup of air pollution, something that’s vital for human health, this artificial sunshade is removed. Since greenhouse gas emissions have kept on increasing, the result is that the Earth’s surface is warming faster than ever before.

    Modelling the cleanup

    Our team used 160 computer simulations from eight global climate models. This enabled us to better quantify the effects that east Asian air pollution has on global temperature and rainfall patterns. We simulated a cleanup of pollution similar to what has happened in the real world since 2010. We found an extra global warming of around 0.07°C.

    While this is a small number compared with the full global warming of around 1.3°C since 1850, it is still enough to explain the recent acceleration in global warming when we take away year-to-year swings in temperature from natural cycles such as El Niño, a climate phenomenon in the Pacific that affects weather patterns globally.

    Thick smog influences the effect of greenhouse gases.
    Shaun Robinson/Shutterstock

    Based on long-term trends, we would have expected around 0.23°C of warming since 2010. However, we actually measured around 0.33°C. While the additional 0.1°C can largely be explained by the east Asian air pollution cleanup, other factors include the change in shipping emissions and the recent accelerated increase in methane concentrations in the atmosphere.

    Air pollution causes cooling by reflecting sunlight or by changing the properties of clouds so they reflect more sunlight. The cleanup in east Asian air pollution influences global temperatures because it reduces the shading effect of the pollution over east Asia itself. It also means less pollution is blown across the north Pacific, causing clouds in the east Pacific to reflect less sunlight.

    The pattern of these changes across the North Pacific simulated in our models matches that seen in satellite observations. Our models and temperature observations also show relatively strong warming over the North Pacific, downwind from east Asia.

    The main source of global warming is still greenhouse gas emissions, and a cleanup of air pollution was both necessary and overdue. This did not cause the additional warming but rather, removed an artificial cooling that has for a time helped shield us from some of the extreme weather and other well-established consequences of climate change.

    Global warming will continue for decades. Indeed, our past and future emissions of greenhouse gases will affect the climate for centuries. However, air pollution is quickly removed from the atmosphere, and the recent acceleration in global warming from this particular unmasking may therefore be short-lived.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Laura Wilcox receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the Research Council of Norway, the Clean Air Fund, and Horizon Europe.

    Bjørn H. Samset receives funding from the Research Council of Norway, the Clean Air Fund, and Horizon Europe.

    – ref. Cleaner air in east Asia may have driven recent acceleration in global warming, our new study indicates – https://theconversation.com/cleaner-air-in-east-asia-may-have-driven-recent-acceleration-in-global-warming-our-new-study-indicates-260601

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: University graduates in Ghana must serve society for a year – study suggests it’s good for national unity

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Arnim Langer, Professor, KU Leuven

    Almost 70 years after independence was gained across the continent, many African countries continue to face the complex task of managing ethnic diversity and building national cohesion. National cohesion is a broad and often abstract concept. It refers to the extent to which people within a country share a sense of common purpose and belonging. It is often reflected in the strength of national identities and the degree of pride individuals feel in being part of the nation.

    The fact that borders in colonial Africa were drawn in the late 19th century to the early 20th century by European powers without regard for ethnic and cultural realities and histories meant that post-colonial African governments had to develop a sense of national consciousness and belonging.

    To address this task, many African countries have made efforts to promote a shared national identity which could bridge ethnic and regional divides. Governments have experimented with a diverse range of policies: promoting national languages, establishing civic education, celebrating national holidays, and reforming state institutions. Other measures have included abolishing traditional kingdoms, redistributing land, renaming capital cities, compulsory military service, and national youth service programmes.

    Research into the effectiveness of these African initiatives has been limited and inconclusive. In recently published research, researchers at the Centre for Research on Peace and Development at KU Leuven addressed this gap by analysing the impact of Ghana’s National Service Scheme. Our research shows that, under certain conditions, participation in this programme can meaningfully enhance feelings of national belonging.

    Ghana’s experience with national service

    Established in 1973, Ghana’s National Service Scheme requires university graduates to spend one year serving in diverse roles throughout the country. This sometimes takes them to regions far from their homes.

    While Ghana is widely regarded as a model for the peaceful management of ethnic diversity, the establishment of the National Service Scheme in 1973 was necessary. It was partly a response to the deep regional and ethnic divisions that marked the country’s early postcolonial period. Notably, in the years leading up to the scheme’s introduction, political rivalry between Ashanti and Ewe elites played a significant role in the country’s political instability.

    Initially designed to counteract such ethnic divisions, the scheme continues to engage very large numbers of graduates each year. Over 100,000 were deployed in 2025. The programme aims not only to strengthen national cohesion, but also to promote manpower development and address key social challenges. These include unemployment, illiteracy and poverty.

    Participants are deployed across a range of sectors, including education, healthcare, agriculture and public administration. While the vast majority of participants are assigned to teaching roles in primary or secondary schools or to positions in healthcare institutions, others take on administrative roles within government agencies or the private sector. These deployments are meant to expose them to different communities and foster intergroup contact under conditions that promote social bonding and reduce prejudice.

    But can national service also contribute towards fostering stronger feelings of national belonging?

    To answer this question, we conducted a large-scale panel survey among almost 3,000 service personnel. They had participated in the scheme between August 2014 and September 2016. The participants were surveyed three times: before their deployment and again within weeks after completing their national service.

    The survey was aimed at examining their feelings of national pride before, during, and after their year of national service. Our study provides compelling evidence that national service significantly boosts participants’ feelings of national pride and belonging.

    We found that the mechanism behind this impact lies in intergroup contact. This is described as positive, meaningful interactions between individuals from diverse ethnic and regional backgrounds. Participants who reported frequent and meaningful interactions, including developing new friendships and gaining deeper knowledge of other cultural groups, showed the most significant increases in their sense of national pride.

    Importantly, the greatest improvements were observed among participants who initially identified less strongly with the nation.

    We further found that the positive effects of participation were not short-lived. It persisted well beyond the year of service.

    Key takeaways for policymakers

    Governments aiming to strengthen national identity through youth service programmes should consider four key lessons from Ghana’s experience.

    Mandatory participation is crucial. Voluntary schemes tend to attract individuals who are already inclined towards inter-ethnic harmony. This limits their broader societal impact. Ghana’s mandatory approach ensures that a wide and diverse range of participants are included. This enhances the programme’s reach and effectiveness.

    Structured interactions must be actively promoted. Simply placing people from different backgrounds together is not enough. Successful programmes, such as Ghana’s, intentionally create opportunities for meaningful engagement. These structured interactions help participants develop lasting relationships and deepen their understanding of other cultures.

    Youth should be engaged during formative years. Recent graduates are at a stage in life when attitudes and identities are still forming. National service programmes that target this age group can have a lasting influence. Especially on how young people perceive national unity and their role within it.

    Diverse placements are essential. National service programmes should deploy participants in settings that are diverse. The geographical location is of secondary importance. Exposure to diverse settings will challenge assumptions and broaden perspectives. It will also foster stronger national bonds across ethnic and regional lines.

    Why national service pays off in the long run

    National youth service programmes, when well-designed and properly managed, are a promising yet underused tool for promoting national unity in Africa’s ethnically diverse societies. These initiatives can create meaningful opportunities for young people to engage across regional and ethnic lines. This helps to build trust, civic responsibility, and a shared sense of national identity.

    Yet, in recent decades, many of these programmes have been scaled back or discontinued across the continent. Examples are Botswana, Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Zambia. The main reason? Cost. Governments have often viewed the logistical and financial demands of deploying tens of thousands of graduates each year as unsustainable. But this short-term budget logic misses the bigger picture.

    Ghana’s scheme shows what’s possible. In recent years, the scheme’s deployment figures have reached record highs. It is now common for around 100,000 national service personnel to be mobilised in a single service year. The positive outcomes observed in Ghana offer clear, evidence-based lessons for policymakers across the continent. Investing in national service is not just a cost – it’s a commitment to a more united future.

    Arnim Langer receives funding from Research Foundation Flanders (FWO).

    Bart Meuleman receives funding from Research Foundation Flanders (FWO)

    Lucas Leopold receives funding from Research Foundation Flanders (FWO).

    – ref. University graduates in Ghana must serve society for a year – study suggests it’s good for national unity – https://theconversation.com/university-graduates-in-ghana-must-serve-society-for-a-year-study-suggests-its-good-for-national-unity-258743

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: 4 things every peace agreement needs – and how the DRC-Rwanda deal measures up

    Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Philipp Kastner, Senior Lecturer in International Law, The University of Western Australia

    The governments of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda concluded a peace treaty in June 2025, aimed at ending a decades-long war in eastern DRC. The United Nations welcomed the agreement as “a significant step towards de-escalation, peace and stability” in the region.

    I have analysed several different peace negotiations and agreements. It’s important to distinguish between what’s needed to get warring parties to the table, and what’s eventually agreed on. In this article, I examine whether the DRC-Rwanda deal has got the four essential components that usually signal that an agreement will hold.

    Two broad points about peace agreements, first – and one particular complication in the DRC-Rwanda case.

    Firstly, one agreement is rarely enough to resolve a complex conflict. Most deals are part of a series of agreements, sometimes between different actors. They often mention previously concluded ones, and will be referred to by subsequent ones.

    Secondly, peace is a process, and requires broad and sustained commitment. It is essential that other actors, like armed groups, are brought on board. Importantly, this also includes civil society actors. An agreement will be more legitimate and effective if different voices are heard during negotiations.

    One major complication in relation to the DRC-Rwanda deal is that the United States has been the prime broker. But rather than acting as a neutral mediator trying to bring about peace, Washington seems to be pursuing its own economic interests. This does not bode well.

    There is no simple recipe for a good peace agreement, but research shows that four elements are important: a serious commitment from the parties, precise wording, clear timelines and strong implementation provisions.

    What underpins a good agreement

    First, the parties need to be serious about the agreement and able to commit to its terms. It must not be used as a cover to buy time, re-arm or pursue fighting. Moreover, lasting peace cannot be made exclusively at the highest political level. Agreements that are the result of more inclusive processes, with input by and support from the communities concerned, have a higher success rate.

    Second, the agreement must address the issues it aims to resolve, and its provisions must be drafted carefully and unambiguously. When agreements are vague or silent on key aspects, they are often short-lived. Previous experiences can guide peace negotiators and mediators in the drafting process. Peace agreement databases established by the United Nations and academic institutions are a useful tool for this.

    Third, clear and realistic timelines are essential. These can concern the withdrawal of armed forces from specified territories, the return of refugees and internally displaced persons, and the establishment of mechanisms providing reparations or other forms of transitional justice.

    Fourth, an agreement should include provisions on its implementation. External support is usually helpful here. Third states or international organisations, liked the United Nations and the African Union, can be mandated to oversee this phase. They can also provide security guarantees or even deploy a peacekeeping operation. What is crucial is that these actors are committed to the process and don’t pursue their own interests.



    Read more:
    DRC and Rwanda sign a US-brokered peace deal: what are the chances of its success?

    To know what to realistically expect from a specific peace agreement, it’s important to understand that such agreements can take very different forms. These range from pre-negotiation arrangements and ceasefires to comprehensive peace accords and implementation agreements.

    A lasting resolution of the conflict should not be expected when only a few conflict parties have concluded a temporary ceasefire.

    The DRC-Rwanda agreement: an important step with lots of shortcomings

    It’s difficult to tell at this point how serious the DRC and Rwanda are about peace, and if their commitment will be enough.

    Their assertion that they will respect each other’s territory and refrain from acts of aggression is certainly important.

    But Rwanda has a history of direct military activities in the DRC since the 1990s. And the treaty only includes rather vague references to the “disengagement of forces/lifting of defensive measures by Rwanda”. It doesn’t specifically mention the withdrawal of the reportedly thousands of Rwandan troops deployed to eastern DRC.

    The Paul Kagame-led Rwandan government has also supported Tutsi-dominated armed groups in the DRC since the Rwandan genocide in 1994. The Mouvement du 23 Mars (M23) is the current primary military actor in eastern DRC. But the agreement between the governments of DRC and Rwanda didn’t include the M23 or other groups. The two governments only commit themselves to supporting the ongoing negotiations between the DRC and the M23 facilitated by Qatar.

    The agreement also foresees the “neutralisation” of another armed group, the Hutu-dominated Forces Démocratiques pour la Libération du Rwanda (FDLR). This group claims to protect Rwandan Hutu refugees in the DRC, but is considered “genocidal” by the Rwandan government. The group has reacted to this plan by calling for a political solution and a more inclusive peace process.

    What’s needed

    The DRC-Rwanda agreement includes provisions that are vital to the people most affected by the conflict, such as the return of the millions of people displaced because of the fighting in eastern DRC. But it does not address other key issues.

    For instance, aside from a general commitment to promote human rights and international humanitarian law, there is no reference to the widespread violations of human rights and war crimes reportedly committed by all sides. These include summary executions, and sexual and gender-based violence, including violence against children.

    Some form of justice and reconciliation mechanism to deal with such large-scale violence should be considered in this situation, as for instance in the fairly successful 2016 agreement between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People’s Army (FARC). This could contribute to preventing further violations as it sends a clear signal that committing crimes will not be rewarded. It also helps the population heal and gives peace a better chance.

    There is no single model for this, and so-called transitional justice (defined as the “range of processes and mechanisms associated with a society’s attempts to come to terms with a legacy of large-scale past abuses, in order to ensure accountability, serve justice and achieve reconciliation”) remains highly controversial. For instance, insisting on war crimes trials can be seen as endangering a fragile peace process.

    But peace agreements across the world, from Libya to the Central African Republic, have over past decades moved away from blanket amnesties. They have increasingly included provisions to ensure accountability, especially for serious crimes. The DRC-Rwanda deal is silent on these questions.

    A twist in the tale

    The DRC-Rwanda deal is complicated by Washington’s role and pursuit of economic interests.

    The two states agreed to establish a joint oversight committee, with members of the African Union, Qatar and the United States. It foresees a “regional economic integration framework”, which has been criticised as opening the door for foreign influence in the DRC’s rich mineral resources. The country is the world’s largest producer of cobalt, for instance, which is essential for the renewable energy sector.

    Such a neocolonial “peace for exploitation bargain” does not send a positive signal. And it will probably not contribute to ending an armed conflict that has been fuelled by the exploitation of natural resources.

    Philipp Kastner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 4 things every peace agreement needs – and how the DRC-Rwanda deal measures up – https://theconversation.com/4-things-every-peace-agreement-needs-and-how-the-drc-rwanda-deal-measures-up-260944

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: How Eurostack could offer Canada a route to digital independence from the United States

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ted Palys, Professor of Criminology, Associate Member of Dept. of Indigenous Studies, Simon Fraser University

    The contemporary internet has been with us since roughly 1995. Its current underlying economic model — surveillance capitalism — began in the early 2000s, when Google and then Facebook realized how much our personal information and online behaviour revealed about us and claimed it for themselves to sell to advertisers.

    Perhaps because of Canada’s proximity to the United States, coupled with its positive shared history with the U.S. and their highly integrated economies, Canada went along for that consumerist ride.

    The experience was different on the other side of the Atlantic. The Stasi in the former East Germany and the KGB under Josef Stalin maintained files on hundreds of thousands of citizens to identify and prosecute dissidents.

    Having witnessed this invasion of privacy and its weaponization first-hand, Europe has been far ahead of North America in developing protections. These include the General Data Protection Regulation and the Law Enforcement Directive, with protection of personal data also listed in the European Union’s Charter of Fundamental Rights.

    Canada clearly took too much for granted in its relationship with the U.S. Suddenly, Canada is being threatened with tariffs and President Donald Trump’s expressed desire to make Canada the 51st American state.

    This has fuelled the motivation of Canada both internally and in co-operation with western European governments to seek greater independence in trade and military preparedness by diversifying its relationships.

    Prime Minister Mark Carney has begun promoting “nation-building projects,” but little attention has been paid to Canada’s digital infrastructure.



    Read more:
    How Canadian nationalism is evolving with the times — and will continue to do so

    Three areas of concern

    Three recent developments suggest Canada would be well-advised to start paying close attention:

    1. The current U.S. administration has raised concerns about its reliability as a partner and friend to Canada. Most of the concerns raised in Canada have been economic. However, Curtis McCord, a former national security and technology researcher for the Canadian government, has said the current situation has created vulnerabilities for national security as well:

    “With Washington becoming an increasingly unreliable ally, Mr. Carney is right to look for ways to diversify away from the U.S. But if Canada wants to maintain its sovereignty and be responsible for its national security, this desire to diversify must extend to the U.S. domination of Canada’s digital infrastructure.”

    2. Silicon Valley is exhibiting a newfound loyalty to Trump. The photo of the “broligarchy” at Trump’s inauguration spoke volumes, as their apparent eagerness to appease the president brings the data gathered by the internet’s surveillance-based economy under state control.

    3. Trump’s recent executive order entitled “Stopping waste, fraud and abuse by eliminating information silos” is alarming. The order became operational when the Trump administration contracted with Palantir, a company known for its surveillance software and data analytics in military contexts. Its job? To combine databases from both the state and federal levels into one massive database that includes every American citizen, and potentially any user of the internet.

    Combining multiple government databases is concerning. Combining them with all the personal data harvested by Silicon Valley and providing them to a government showing all the hallmarks of an authoritarian regime sounds like Big Brother has arrived.

    Civil liberties groups such as the Electronic Freedom Foundation, academics and even former Palantir employees have raised alarms about the possibilities for abuse, including the launch of all the vendettas Trump and his supporters have pledged to undertake.

    The appeal of Eurostack

    European governments have attempted to rein in Silicon Valley’s excesses for years. Trump’s re-election and his moves toward potentially weaponizing internet data have further boosted Europe’s resolve to move away from the U.S.-led internet.

    One newer effort is Eurostack. A joint initiative involving academics, policymakers, companies and governments, it envisions an independent digital ecosystem that better reflects European values — democratic, sovereign, inclusive, transparent, respectful of personal privacy and innovation-driven.

    Spokesperson Francesca Bria explains the “stack” arises from the idea that a digitally sovereign internet needs to have European control from the ground up.

    Bria discusses Eurostack in May 2025. (re:publica)

    That includes the acquisition of raw materials and manufacture and operation of the physical components that comprise computers and servers; the cloud infrastructure that has the processing power and storage to be operational at scale; the operating systems and applications that comprise the user interface; the AI models and algorithms that drive services and its policy and governance framework.

    Prospective gains to Europe are considerable. They include greater cybersecurity, promoting innovation, keeping high-end creative jobs in Europe, promoting collaboration on equitable terms and creating high-skilled employment opportunities.

    Canada receives no mention in the Eurostack proposal to date, but the project is still very much in the developmental phase. Investment so far is in the tens of millions instead of the billions it will require.

    Canada has a lot to offer and to gain from being part of the Eurostack initiative. With the project still taking shape, now is the perfect time to get on board.

    Ted Palys does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Eurostack could offer Canada a route to digital independence from the United States – https://theconversation.com/how-eurostack-could-offer-canada-a-route-to-digital-independence-from-the-united-states-260663

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: 2026 FIFA World Cup expansion will have a big climate footprint, with matches from Mexico to Canada – here’s what fans can do

    Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Brian P. McCullough, Associate Professor of Sport Management, University of Michigan

    Lionel Messi celebrates with fans after Argentina won the FIFA World Cup championship in 2022 in Qatar. Michael Regan-FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images

    When the FIFA World Cup hits North America in June 2026, 48 teams and millions of sports fans will be traveling among venues spread across Canada, the United States and Mexico.

    It’s a dramatic expansion – 16 more teams will be playing than in recent years, with a jump from 64 to 104 matches. The tournament, whether you call it soccer or football, is projected to bring in over US$10 billion in revenue. But the expansion will also mean a lot more travel and other activities that contribute to climate change.

    The environmental impacts of giant sporting events like the World Cup create a complex paradox for an industry grappling with its future in a warming world.

    A sustainability conundrum

    Sports are undeniably experiencing the effects of climate change. Rising global temperatures are putting athletes’ health at risk during summer heat waves and shortening winter sports seasons. Many of the 2026 World Cup venues often see heat waves in June and early July, when the tournament is scheduled.

    There is a divide over how sports should respond.

    Some athletes are speaking out for more sustainable choices and have called on lawmakers to take steps to limit climate-warming emissions. At the same time, the sport industry is growing and facing a constant push to increase revenue. The NCAA is also considering expanding its March Madness basketball tournaments from 68 teams currently to as many as 76.

    Park Yong-woo of team Al Ain from Abu Dhabi tries to cool off during a Club World Cup match on June 26, 2025, in Washington, D.C., which was in the midst of a heat wave. Some players have raised concerns about likely high temperatures during the 2026 World Cup, with matches scheduled June 11 to July 19.
    AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson

    Estimates for the 2026 World Cup show what large tournament expansions can mean for the climate. A report from Scientists for Global Responsibility estimates that the expanded World Cup could generate over 9 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, nearly double the average of the past four World Cups.

    This massive increase – and the increase that would come if the NCAA basketball tournaments also expand – would primarily be driven by air travel as fans and players fly among event cities that are thousands of miles apart.

    A lot of money is at stake, but so is the climate

    Sports are big business, and adding more matches to events like the World Cup and NCAA tournaments will likely lead to larger media rights contracts and greater gate receipts from more fans attending the events, boosting revenues. These are powerful financial incentives.

    In the NCAA’s case, there is another reason to consider a larger tournament: The House v. NCAA settlement opened the door for college athletic departments to share revenue with athletes, which will significantly increase costs for many college programs. More teams would mean more television revenue and, crucially, more revenue to be distributed to member NCAA institutions and their athletic conferences.

    When climate promises become greenwashing

    The inherent conflict between maximizing profit through growth and minimizing environmental footprint presents a dilemma for sports.

    Several sport organizations have promised to reduce their impact on the climate, including signing up for initiatives like the United Nations Sports for Climate Action Framework.

    However, as sports tournaments and exhibition games expand, it can become increasingly hard for sports organizations to meet their climate commitments. In some cases, groups making sustainability commitments have been accused of greenwashing, suggesting the goals are more about public relations than making genuine, measurable changes.

    For example, FIFA’s early claims that it would hold a “fully carbon-neutral” World Cup in Qatar in 2022 were challenged by a group of European countries that accused soccer’s world governing body of underestimating emissions. The Swiss Fairness Commission, which monitors fairness in advertising, considered the complaints and determined that FIFA’s claims could not be substantiated.

    Alessandro Bastoni, of Inter Milan and Italy’s national team, prepares to board a flight from Milan to Rome with his team.
    Mattia Ozbot-Inter/Inter via Getty Images

    Aviation is often the biggest driver of emissions. A study that colleagues and I conducted on the NCAA men’s basketball tournament found about 80% of its emissions were connected to travel. And that was after the NCAA began using the pod system, which is designed to keep teams closer to home for the first and second rounds.

    Finding practical solutions

    Some academics, observing the rising emissions trend, have called for radical solutions like the end of commercialized sports or drastically limiting who can attend sporting events, with a focus on fans from the region.

    These solutions are frankly not practical, in my view, nor do they align with other positive developments. The growing popularity of women’s sports shows the challenge in limiting sports events – more games expands participation but adds to the industry’s overall footprint.

    Further compounding the challenges of reducing environmental impact is the amount of fan travel, which is outside the direct control of the sports organization or event organizers.

    Many fans will follow their teams long distances, especially for mega-events like the World Cup or the NCAA tournament. During the men’s World Cup in Russia in 2018, more than 840,000 fans traveled from other countries. The top countries by number of fans, after Russia, were China, the U.S., Mexico and Argentina.

    There is an argument that distributed sporting events like March Madness or the World Cup can be better in some ways for local environments because they don’t overwhelm a single city. However, merely spreading the impact does not necessarily reduce it, particularly when considering the effects on climate change.

    How fans can cut their environmental footprint

    Sport organizations and event planners can take steps to be more sustainable and also encourage more sustainable choices among fans. Fans can reduce their environmental impact in a variety of ways. For example:

    • Avoid taking airplanes for shorter distances, such as between FIFA venues in Philadelphia, New York and Boston, and carpool or take Amtrak instead. Planes can be more efficient for long distances, but air travel is still a major contributing factor to emissions.

    • While in a host city, use mass transit or rent electric vehicles or bicycles for local travel.

    • Consider sustainable accommodations, such as short-term rentals that might have a smaller environmental footprint than a hotel. Or stay at a certified green hotel that makes an effort to be more efficient in its use of water and energy.

    • Engage in sustainable pregame and postgame activities, such as choosing local, sustainable food options, and minimize waste.

    • You can also pay to offset carbon emissions for attending different sporting events, much like concertgoers do when they attend musical festivals. While critics question offsets’ true environmental benefit, they do represent people’s growing awareness of their environmental footprint.

    Through all these options, it’s clear that sports face a significant challenge in addressing their environmental impacts and encouraging fans to be more sustainable, while simultaneously trying to meet ambitious business and environmental targets.

    In my view, a sustainable path forward will require strategic, yet genuine, commitment by the sports industry and its fans, and a willingness to prioritize long-term planetary health alongside economic gains – balancing the sport and sustainability.

    Brian P. McCullough does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 2026 FIFA World Cup expansion will have a big climate footprint, with matches from Mexico to Canada – here’s what fans can do – https://theconversation.com/2026-fifa-world-cup-expansion-will-have-a-big-climate-footprint-with-matches-from-mexico-to-canada-heres-what-fans-can-do-259437

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: 2026 FIFA World Cup expansion will have a big climate footprint, with matches from Mexico to Canada – here’s what fans can do

    Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Brian P. McCullough, Associate Professor of Sport Management, University of Michigan

    Lionel Messi celebrates with fans after Argentina won the FIFA World Cup championship in 2022 in Qatar. Michael Regan-FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images

    When the FIFA World Cup hits North America in June 2026, 48 teams and millions of sports fans will be traveling among venues spread across Canada, the United States and Mexico.

    It’s a dramatic expansion – 16 more teams will be playing than in recent years, with a jump from 64 to 104 matches. The tournament, whether you call it soccer or football, is projected to bring in over US$10 billion in revenue. But the expansion will also mean a lot more travel and other activities that contribute to climate change.

    The environmental impacts of giant sporting events like the World Cup create a complex paradox for an industry grappling with its future in a warming world.

    A sustainability conundrum

    Sports are undeniably experiencing the effects of climate change. Rising global temperatures are putting athletes’ health at risk during summer heat waves and shortening winter sports seasons. Many of the 2026 World Cup venues often see heat waves in June and early July, when the tournament is scheduled.

    There is a divide over how sports should respond.

    Some athletes are speaking out for more sustainable choices and have called on lawmakers to take steps to limit climate-warming emissions. At the same time, the sport industry is growing and facing a constant push to increase revenue. The NCAA is also considering expanding its March Madness basketball tournaments from 68 teams currently to as many as 76.

    Park Yong-woo of team Al Ain from Abu Dhabi tries to cool off during a Club World Cup match on June 26, 2025, in Washington, D.C., which was in the midst of a heat wave. Some players have raised concerns about likely high temperatures during the 2026 World Cup, with matches scheduled June 11 to July 19.
    AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson

    Estimates for the 2026 World Cup show what large tournament expansions can mean for the climate. A report from Scientists for Global Responsibility estimates that the expanded World Cup could generate over 9 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, nearly double the average of the past four World Cups.

    This massive increase – and the increase that would come if the NCAA basketball tournaments also expand – would primarily be driven by air travel as fans and players fly among event cities that are thousands of miles apart.

    A lot of money is at stake, but so is the climate

    Sports are big business, and adding more matches to events like the World Cup and NCAA tournaments will likely lead to larger media rights contracts and greater gate receipts from more fans attending the events, boosting revenues. These are powerful financial incentives.

    In the NCAA’s case, there is another reason to consider a larger tournament: The House v. NCAA settlement opened the door for college athletic departments to share revenue with athletes, which will significantly increase costs for many college programs. More teams would mean more television revenue and, crucially, more revenue to be distributed to member NCAA institutions and their athletic conferences.

    When climate promises become greenwashing

    The inherent conflict between maximizing profit through growth and minimizing environmental footprint presents a dilemma for sports.

    Several sport organizations have promised to reduce their impact on the climate, including signing up for initiatives like the United Nations Sports for Climate Action Framework.

    However, as sports tournaments and exhibition games expand, it can become increasingly hard for sports organizations to meet their climate commitments. In some cases, groups making sustainability commitments have been accused of greenwashing, suggesting the goals are more about public relations than making genuine, measurable changes.

    For example, FIFA’s early claims that it would hold a “fully carbon-neutral” World Cup in Qatar in 2022 were challenged by a group of European countries that accused soccer’s world governing body of underestimating emissions. The Swiss Fairness Commission, which monitors fairness in advertising, considered the complaints and determined that FIFA’s claims could not be substantiated.

    Alessandro Bastoni, of Inter Milan and Italy’s national team, prepares to board a flight from Milan to Rome with his team.
    Mattia Ozbot-Inter/Inter via Getty Images

    Aviation is often the biggest driver of emissions. A study that colleagues and I conducted on the NCAA men’s basketball tournament found about 80% of its emissions were connected to travel. And that was after the NCAA began using the pod system, which is designed to keep teams closer to home for the first and second rounds.

    Finding practical solutions

    Some academics, observing the rising emissions trend, have called for radical solutions like the end of commercialized sports or drastically limiting who can attend sporting events, with a focus on fans from the region.

    These solutions are frankly not practical, in my view, nor do they align with other positive developments. The growing popularity of women’s sports shows the challenge in limiting sports events – more games expands participation but adds to the industry’s overall footprint.

    Further compounding the challenges of reducing environmental impact is the amount of fan travel, which is outside the direct control of the sports organization or event organizers.

    Many fans will follow their teams long distances, especially for mega-events like the World Cup or the NCAA tournament. During the men’s World Cup in Russia in 2018, more than 840,000 fans traveled from other countries. The top countries by number of fans, after Russia, were China, the U.S., Mexico and Argentina.

    There is an argument that distributed sporting events like March Madness or the World Cup can be better in some ways for local environments because they don’t overwhelm a single city. However, merely spreading the impact does not necessarily reduce it, particularly when considering the effects on climate change.

    How fans can cut their environmental footprint

    Sport organizations and event planners can take steps to be more sustainable and also encourage more sustainable choices among fans. Fans can reduce their environmental impact in a variety of ways. For example:

    • Avoid taking airplanes for shorter distances, such as between FIFA venues in Philadelphia, New York and Boston, and carpool or take Amtrak instead. Planes can be more efficient for long distances, but air travel is still a major contributing factor to emissions.

    • While in a host city, use mass transit or rent electric vehicles or bicycles for local travel.

    • Consider sustainable accommodations, such as short-term rentals that might have a smaller environmental footprint than a hotel. Or stay at a certified green hotel that makes an effort to be more efficient in its use of water and energy.

    • Engage in sustainable pregame and postgame activities, such as choosing local, sustainable food options, and minimize waste.

    • You can also pay to offset carbon emissions for attending different sporting events, much like concertgoers do when they attend musical festivals. While critics question offsets’ true environmental benefit, they do represent people’s growing awareness of their environmental footprint.

    Through all these options, it’s clear that sports face a significant challenge in addressing their environmental impacts and encouraging fans to be more sustainable, while simultaneously trying to meet ambitious business and environmental targets.

    In my view, a sustainable path forward will require strategic, yet genuine, commitment by the sports industry and its fans, and a willingness to prioritize long-term planetary health alongside economic gains – balancing the sport and sustainability.

    Brian P. McCullough does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 2026 FIFA World Cup expansion will have a big climate footprint, with matches from Mexico to Canada – here’s what fans can do – https://theconversation.com/2026-fifa-world-cup-expansion-will-have-a-big-climate-footprint-with-matches-from-mexico-to-canada-heres-what-fans-can-do-259437

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Most Pennsylvania voters ignore judicial elections − a political scientist explains why they matter, especially in a battleground state

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Daniel J. Mallinson, Associate Professor of Public Policy and Administration, Penn State

    Three of the seven judges on PA’s state supreme court are up for retention votes in November 2025. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

    This November, there will be no candidate for president, governor, senator or even representative on the Pennsylvania ballot.

    Pennsylvanians will vote, however, on three members of their seven-member state Supreme Court.

    These are retention elections, which means that voters will decide whether to keep the current members of the court or remove them.

    The three seats up for grabs are three of the five Democrats that hold the majority on the court. They are Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht.

    While the typical voter may not think much about judicial elections, political operatives and political scientists, like me, know they have consequences.

    I think it’s important that voters understand what a retention election is and why state judicial elections are growing in political importance in the U.S.

    Retention elections

    Federal judges are appointed by the U.S. president, confirmed by the U.S. Senate, and can serve for the rest of their lives. State judges, however, are put in place in a variety of ways.

    The most powerful state courts are the so-called “courts of last resort.” These are essentially the supreme courts of each state. The method for selecting judges in these courts has varied over time and across the states. Currently, states use either gubernatorial appointment, legislative appointment, partisan elections, nonpartisan elections, or a merit process for selecting the judges of their highest courts.

    Pennsylvania has partisan elections, meaning judges run for office attached to political parties, just like a candidate would run for governor or president. However, it is only in their first race for office that a judge runs in a competitive partisan election. After they assume the bench, they participate in retention elections every 10 years. These retention elections are considered nonpartisan, since party labels do not appear on the ballot.

    Essentially, a retention election is an up or down vote. If more than 50% of voters cast a vote in opposition to a sitting judge, that judge will be out of the office at the end of their term. The governor, who is currently Democrat Josh Shapiro, then makes a temporary appointment to fill the seat with a special election held in the next odd year – in this case, 2027. But any appointments would need to be confirmed by the Republican-controlled state Senate, which may not confirm his picks.

    Politicization of the state courts

    Judges win retention elections over 90% of the time. So why should people bother to cast their vote?

    Courts, including state courts, have become highly politicized over the past several decades. A marked increase in politicization occurred for the U.S. Supreme Court after the failed nomination of Robert Bork in the 1980s.

    This politicization has since trickled down to lower federal courts and the states.

    State supreme courts have always made big decisions, but the nationalization of American politics – where national partisan politics drive voter behavior in local elections – has elevated the controversy over state supreme court decisions on issues such as reproductive rights, trans rights, COVID-19 restrictions, environmental protection and more.

    This issue became more acute when courts in battleground states were thrust to the center of adjudicating false claims of election fraud during the 2020 U.S. presidential election. And judges have faced increasing threats, particularly when opposing actions of the Trump administration, as President Donald Trump is prone to calling out specific judges in decisions that he does not like.

    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has received additional attention, in part due to the outsized role it has played in recent redistricting. In 2018, the court threw out the congressional districts drawn by the General Assembly in 2011 and invited a new plan from the governor and General Assembly. The two came to a political loggerhead, so the Supreme Court ended up using its own map as a replacement.

    In 2022, the state Supreme Court once again took control of redistricting after Pennyslvania’s then-Gov. Tom Wolf vetoed the congressional district map approved by the General Assembly.

    Given the importance of state supreme courts, particularly in federal elections cases in battleground states like Pennsylvania, it is little wonder why their elections are gaining attention.

    The April 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race was the most expensive state judicial race in U.S. history, with $100 million in spending, including significant contributions from billionaires Elon Musk and George Soros.

    Former prosecutor Susan Crawford won the highly politicized race for Wisconsin Supreme Court justice in 2025. It was the most expensive state supreme court race in U.S. history.
    Scott Olson via Getty Images

    That was one seat.

    Pennsylvania has three up for grabs in November 2025, with the potential to swing the current Democratic majority.

    And retention elections are politically simple for opponents. As one Republican political consultant told investigative news outlet Spotlight PA: “This is a political consultant’s dream, because your message is just one thing, and that’s ‘No.’”

    This can give some advantage to Republicans in a state that Trump won in 2024 and in a low-turnout election. The question will be whether there is more energy motivating opponents to turn out against the Democratic majority or supporters seeking to maintain the status quo.

    The 2025 retention elections could change the balance of power in the court.
    AP Photo/Aimee Dilger

    The stakes for Pennsylvania in 2025

    Much is at stake for Pennsylvanians in the fall. Republicans see this as their best opportunity to break the firm 5-2 Democratic majority on the court. This would pave the way for very different judicial decisions. Many of the court’s recent election-related rulings were made on narrow 4-3 votes that could swing differently if the composition of the court changes.

    Republicans have had their power in Harrisburg diminished with Shapiro in the governor’s mansion and a one-seat Democratic majority in the state House of Representatives over the past two terms.

    A Republican majority on the court would significantly change the balance of power in Harrisburg.

    But it is important to focus not only on the top court. The state’s two appellate-level courts – one step below the state Supreme Court – also have two important races and two retention votes in November that will decide the judiciary’s relationship with the governor and General Assembly.

    Daniel J. Mallinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Most Pennsylvania voters ignore judicial elections − a political scientist explains why they matter, especially in a battleground state – https://theconversation.com/most-pennsylvania-voters-ignore-judicial-elections-a-political-scientist-explains-why-they-matter-especially-in-a-battleground-state-259775

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Most Pennsylvania voters ignore judicial elections − a political scientist explains why they matter, especially in a battleground state

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Daniel J. Mallinson, Associate Professor of Public Policy and Administration, Penn State

    Three of the seven judges on PA’s state supreme court are up for retention votes in November 2025. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

    This November, there will be no candidate for president, governor, senator or even representative on the Pennsylvania ballot.

    Pennsylvanians will vote, however, on three members of their seven-member state Supreme Court.

    These are retention elections, which means that voters will decide whether to keep the current members of the court or remove them.

    The three seats up for grabs are three of the five Democrats that hold the majority on the court. They are Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht.

    While the typical voter may not think much about judicial elections, political operatives and political scientists, like me, know they have consequences.

    I think it’s important that voters understand what a retention election is and why state judicial elections are growing in political importance in the U.S.

    Retention elections

    Federal judges are appointed by the U.S. president, confirmed by the U.S. Senate, and can serve for the rest of their lives. State judges, however, are put in place in a variety of ways.

    The most powerful state courts are the so-called “courts of last resort.” These are essentially the supreme courts of each state. The method for selecting judges in these courts has varied over time and across the states. Currently, states use either gubernatorial appointment, legislative appointment, partisan elections, nonpartisan elections, or a merit process for selecting the judges of their highest courts.

    Pennsylvania has partisan elections, meaning judges run for office attached to political parties, just like a candidate would run for governor or president. However, it is only in their first race for office that a judge runs in a competitive partisan election. After they assume the bench, they participate in retention elections every 10 years. These retention elections are considered nonpartisan, since party labels do not appear on the ballot.

    Essentially, a retention election is an up or down vote. If more than 50% of voters cast a vote in opposition to a sitting judge, that judge will be out of the office at the end of their term. The governor, who is currently Democrat Josh Shapiro, then makes a temporary appointment to fill the seat with a special election held in the next odd year – in this case, 2027. But any appointments would need to be confirmed by the Republican-controlled state Senate, which may not confirm his picks.

    Politicization of the state courts

    Judges win retention elections over 90% of the time. So why should people bother to cast their vote?

    Courts, including state courts, have become highly politicized over the past several decades. A marked increase in politicization occurred for the U.S. Supreme Court after the failed nomination of Robert Bork in the 1980s.

    This politicization has since trickled down to lower federal courts and the states.

    State supreme courts have always made big decisions, but the nationalization of American politics – where national partisan politics drive voter behavior in local elections – has elevated the controversy over state supreme court decisions on issues such as reproductive rights, trans rights, COVID-19 restrictions, environmental protection and more.

    This issue became more acute when courts in battleground states were thrust to the center of adjudicating false claims of election fraud during the 2020 U.S. presidential election. And judges have faced increasing threats, particularly when opposing actions of the Trump administration, as President Donald Trump is prone to calling out specific judges in decisions that he does not like.

    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has received additional attention, in part due to the outsized role it has played in recent redistricting. In 2018, the court threw out the congressional districts drawn by the General Assembly in 2011 and invited a new plan from the governor and General Assembly. The two came to a political loggerhead, so the Supreme Court ended up using its own map as a replacement.

    In 2022, the state Supreme Court once again took control of redistricting after Pennyslvania’s then-Gov. Tom Wolf vetoed the congressional district map approved by the General Assembly.

    Given the importance of state supreme courts, particularly in federal elections cases in battleground states like Pennsylvania, it is little wonder why their elections are gaining attention.

    The April 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race was the most expensive state judicial race in U.S. history, with $100 million in spending, including significant contributions from billionaires Elon Musk and George Soros.

    Former prosecutor Susan Crawford won the highly politicized race for Wisconsin Supreme Court justice in 2025. It was the most expensive state supreme court race in U.S. history.
    Scott Olson via Getty Images

    That was one seat.

    Pennsylvania has three up for grabs in November 2025, with the potential to swing the current Democratic majority.

    And retention elections are politically simple for opponents. As one Republican political consultant told investigative news outlet Spotlight PA: “This is a political consultant’s dream, because your message is just one thing, and that’s ‘No.’”

    This can give some advantage to Republicans in a state that Trump won in 2024 and in a low-turnout election. The question will be whether there is more energy motivating opponents to turn out against the Democratic majority or supporters seeking to maintain the status quo.

    The 2025 retention elections could change the balance of power in the court.
    AP Photo/Aimee Dilger

    The stakes for Pennsylvania in 2025

    Much is at stake for Pennsylvanians in the fall. Republicans see this as their best opportunity to break the firm 5-2 Democratic majority on the court. This would pave the way for very different judicial decisions. Many of the court’s recent election-related rulings were made on narrow 4-3 votes that could swing differently if the composition of the court changes.

    Republicans have had their power in Harrisburg diminished with Shapiro in the governor’s mansion and a one-seat Democratic majority in the state House of Representatives over the past two terms.

    A Republican majority on the court would significantly change the balance of power in Harrisburg.

    But it is important to focus not only on the top court. The state’s two appellate-level courts – one step below the state Supreme Court – also have two important races and two retention votes in November that will decide the judiciary’s relationship with the governor and General Assembly.

    Daniel J. Mallinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Most Pennsylvania voters ignore judicial elections − a political scientist explains why they matter, especially in a battleground state – https://theconversation.com/most-pennsylvania-voters-ignore-judicial-elections-a-political-scientist-explains-why-they-matter-especially-in-a-battleground-state-259775

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Most Pennsylvania voters ignore judicial elections − a political scientist explains why they matter, especially in a battleground state

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Daniel J. Mallinson, Associate Professor of Public Policy and Administration, Penn State

    Three of the seven judges on PA’s state supreme court are up for retention votes in November 2025. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

    This November, there will be no candidate for president, governor, senator or even representative on the Pennsylvania ballot.

    Pennsylvanians will vote, however, on three members of their seven-member state Supreme Court.

    These are retention elections, which means that voters will decide whether to keep the current members of the court or remove them.

    The three seats up for grabs are three of the five Democrats that hold the majority on the court. They are Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht.

    While the typical voter may not think much about judicial elections, political operatives and political scientists, like me, know they have consequences.

    I think it’s important that voters understand what a retention election is and why state judicial elections are growing in political importance in the U.S.

    Retention elections

    Federal judges are appointed by the U.S. president, confirmed by the U.S. Senate, and can serve for the rest of their lives. State judges, however, are put in place in a variety of ways.

    The most powerful state courts are the so-called “courts of last resort.” These are essentially the supreme courts of each state. The method for selecting judges in these courts has varied over time and across the states. Currently, states use either gubernatorial appointment, legislative appointment, partisan elections, nonpartisan elections, or a merit process for selecting the judges of their highest courts.

    Pennsylvania has partisan elections, meaning judges run for office attached to political parties, just like a candidate would run for governor or president. However, it is only in their first race for office that a judge runs in a competitive partisan election. After they assume the bench, they participate in retention elections every 10 years. These retention elections are considered nonpartisan, since party labels do not appear on the ballot.

    Essentially, a retention election is an up or down vote. If more than 50% of voters cast a vote in opposition to a sitting judge, that judge will be out of the office at the end of their term. The governor, who is currently Democrat Josh Shapiro, then makes a temporary appointment to fill the seat with a special election held in the next odd year – in this case, 2027. But any appointments would need to be confirmed by the Republican-controlled state Senate, which may not confirm his picks.

    Politicization of the state courts

    Judges win retention elections over 90% of the time. So why should people bother to cast their vote?

    Courts, including state courts, have become highly politicized over the past several decades. A marked increase in politicization occurred for the U.S. Supreme Court after the failed nomination of Robert Bork in the 1980s.

    This politicization has since trickled down to lower federal courts and the states.

    State supreme courts have always made big decisions, but the nationalization of American politics – where national partisan politics drive voter behavior in local elections – has elevated the controversy over state supreme court decisions on issues such as reproductive rights, trans rights, COVID-19 restrictions, environmental protection and more.

    This issue became more acute when courts in battleground states were thrust to the center of adjudicating false claims of election fraud during the 2020 U.S. presidential election. And judges have faced increasing threats, particularly when opposing actions of the Trump administration, as President Donald Trump is prone to calling out specific judges in decisions that he does not like.

    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has received additional attention, in part due to the outsized role it has played in recent redistricting. In 2018, the court threw out the congressional districts drawn by the General Assembly in 2011 and invited a new plan from the governor and General Assembly. The two came to a political loggerhead, so the Supreme Court ended up using its own map as a replacement.

    In 2022, the state Supreme Court once again took control of redistricting after Pennyslvania’s then-Gov. Tom Wolf vetoed the congressional district map approved by the General Assembly.

    Given the importance of state supreme courts, particularly in federal elections cases in battleground states like Pennsylvania, it is little wonder why their elections are gaining attention.

    The April 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race was the most expensive state judicial race in U.S. history, with $100 million in spending, including significant contributions from billionaires Elon Musk and George Soros.

    Former prosecutor Susan Crawford won the highly politicized race for Wisconsin Supreme Court justice in 2025. It was the most expensive state supreme court race in U.S. history.
    Scott Olson via Getty Images

    That was one seat.

    Pennsylvania has three up for grabs in November 2025, with the potential to swing the current Democratic majority.

    And retention elections are politically simple for opponents. As one Republican political consultant told investigative news outlet Spotlight PA: “This is a political consultant’s dream, because your message is just one thing, and that’s ‘No.’”

    This can give some advantage to Republicans in a state that Trump won in 2024 and in a low-turnout election. The question will be whether there is more energy motivating opponents to turn out against the Democratic majority or supporters seeking to maintain the status quo.

    The 2025 retention elections could change the balance of power in the court.
    AP Photo/Aimee Dilger

    The stakes for Pennsylvania in 2025

    Much is at stake for Pennsylvanians in the fall. Republicans see this as their best opportunity to break the firm 5-2 Democratic majority on the court. This would pave the way for very different judicial decisions. Many of the court’s recent election-related rulings were made on narrow 4-3 votes that could swing differently if the composition of the court changes.

    Republicans have had their power in Harrisburg diminished with Shapiro in the governor’s mansion and a one-seat Democratic majority in the state House of Representatives over the past two terms.

    A Republican majority on the court would significantly change the balance of power in Harrisburg.

    But it is important to focus not only on the top court. The state’s two appellate-level courts – one step below the state Supreme Court – also have two important races and two retention votes in November that will decide the judiciary’s relationship with the governor and General Assembly.

    Daniel J. Mallinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Most Pennsylvania voters ignore judicial elections − a political scientist explains why they matter, especially in a battleground state – https://theconversation.com/most-pennsylvania-voters-ignore-judicial-elections-a-political-scientist-explains-why-they-matter-especially-in-a-battleground-state-259775

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Most Pennsylvania voters ignore judicial elections − a political scientist explains why they matter, especially in a battleground state

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Daniel J. Mallinson, Associate Professor of Public Policy and Administration, Penn State

    Three of the seven judges on PA’s state supreme court are up for retention votes in November 2025. AP Photo/Matt Rourke

    This November, there will be no candidate for president, governor, senator or even representative on the Pennsylvania ballot.

    Pennsylvanians will vote, however, on three members of their seven-member state Supreme Court.

    These are retention elections, which means that voters will decide whether to keep the current members of the court or remove them.

    The three seats up for grabs are three of the five Democrats that hold the majority on the court. They are Justices Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht.

    While the typical voter may not think much about judicial elections, political operatives and political scientists, like me, know they have consequences.

    I think it’s important that voters understand what a retention election is and why state judicial elections are growing in political importance in the U.S.

    Retention elections

    Federal judges are appointed by the U.S. president, confirmed by the U.S. Senate, and can serve for the rest of their lives. State judges, however, are put in place in a variety of ways.

    The most powerful state courts are the so-called “courts of last resort.” These are essentially the supreme courts of each state. The method for selecting judges in these courts has varied over time and across the states. Currently, states use either gubernatorial appointment, legislative appointment, partisan elections, nonpartisan elections, or a merit process for selecting the judges of their highest courts.

    Pennsylvania has partisan elections, meaning judges run for office attached to political parties, just like a candidate would run for governor or president. However, it is only in their first race for office that a judge runs in a competitive partisan election. After they assume the bench, they participate in retention elections every 10 years. These retention elections are considered nonpartisan, since party labels do not appear on the ballot.

    Essentially, a retention election is an up or down vote. If more than 50% of voters cast a vote in opposition to a sitting judge, that judge will be out of the office at the end of their term. The governor, who is currently Democrat Josh Shapiro, then makes a temporary appointment to fill the seat with a special election held in the next odd year – in this case, 2027. But any appointments would need to be confirmed by the Republican-controlled state Senate, which may not confirm his picks.

    Politicization of the state courts

    Judges win retention elections over 90% of the time. So why should people bother to cast their vote?

    Courts, including state courts, have become highly politicized over the past several decades. A marked increase in politicization occurred for the U.S. Supreme Court after the failed nomination of Robert Bork in the 1980s.

    This politicization has since trickled down to lower federal courts and the states.

    State supreme courts have always made big decisions, but the nationalization of American politics – where national partisan politics drive voter behavior in local elections – has elevated the controversy over state supreme court decisions on issues such as reproductive rights, trans rights, COVID-19 restrictions, environmental protection and more.

    This issue became more acute when courts in battleground states were thrust to the center of adjudicating false claims of election fraud during the 2020 U.S. presidential election. And judges have faced increasing threats, particularly when opposing actions of the Trump administration, as President Donald Trump is prone to calling out specific judges in decisions that he does not like.

    The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has received additional attention, in part due to the outsized role it has played in recent redistricting. In 2018, the court threw out the congressional districts drawn by the General Assembly in 2011 and invited a new plan from the governor and General Assembly. The two came to a political loggerhead, so the Supreme Court ended up using its own map as a replacement.

    In 2022, the state Supreme Court once again took control of redistricting after Pennyslvania’s then-Gov. Tom Wolf vetoed the congressional district map approved by the General Assembly.

    Given the importance of state supreme courts, particularly in federal elections cases in battleground states like Pennsylvania, it is little wonder why their elections are gaining attention.

    The April 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race was the most expensive state judicial race in U.S. history, with $100 million in spending, including significant contributions from billionaires Elon Musk and George Soros.

    Former prosecutor Susan Crawford won the highly politicized race for Wisconsin Supreme Court justice in 2025. It was the most expensive state supreme court race in U.S. history.
    Scott Olson via Getty Images

    That was one seat.

    Pennsylvania has three up for grabs in November 2025, with the potential to swing the current Democratic majority.

    And retention elections are politically simple for opponents. As one Republican political consultant told investigative news outlet Spotlight PA: “This is a political consultant’s dream, because your message is just one thing, and that’s ‘No.’”

    This can give some advantage to Republicans in a state that Trump won in 2024 and in a low-turnout election. The question will be whether there is more energy motivating opponents to turn out against the Democratic majority or supporters seeking to maintain the status quo.

    The 2025 retention elections could change the balance of power in the court.
    AP Photo/Aimee Dilger

    The stakes for Pennsylvania in 2025

    Much is at stake for Pennsylvanians in the fall. Republicans see this as their best opportunity to break the firm 5-2 Democratic majority on the court. This would pave the way for very different judicial decisions. Many of the court’s recent election-related rulings were made on narrow 4-3 votes that could swing differently if the composition of the court changes.

    Republicans have had their power in Harrisburg diminished with Shapiro in the governor’s mansion and a one-seat Democratic majority in the state House of Representatives over the past two terms.

    A Republican majority on the court would significantly change the balance of power in Harrisburg.

    But it is important to focus not only on the top court. The state’s two appellate-level courts – one step below the state Supreme Court – also have two important races and two retention votes in November that will decide the judiciary’s relationship with the governor and General Assembly.

    Daniel J. Mallinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Most Pennsylvania voters ignore judicial elections − a political scientist explains why they matter, especially in a battleground state – https://theconversation.com/most-pennsylvania-voters-ignore-judicial-elections-a-political-scientist-explains-why-they-matter-especially-in-a-battleground-state-259775

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Zohran Mamdani’s last name reflects centuries of intercontinental trade, migration and cultural exchange

    Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Iqbal Akhtar, Associate Professor of Religious Studies, Florida International University

    Zohran Mamdani takes photos with union members during a campaign rally at the Hotel and Gaming Trades Council headquarters in New York on July 2, 2025. AP Photo/Richard Drew

    When Zohran Mamdani announced his candidacy for mayor of New York City, political observers noted his progressive platform and legislative record. But understanding the Democratic candidate’s background requires examining the rich cultural tapestry woven into his very surname: Mamdani.

    He takes the name from his father, Mahmood Mamdani, a prominent academic who was raised in Uganda and whose work focuses on postcolonial Uganda. I studied the history of the Khoja community for my doctoral work and have helped develop Khoja studies as an academic discipline. The Mamdani surname tells a story of migration, resilience and community-building that spans centuries and continents.

    The Khoja history

    Mamdanis in Uganda belong to the Khoja community, a South Asian Muslim merchant caste, that shaped economic development across the western Indian Ocean for centuries.

    The name originates from greater Sindh, a region in South Asia that today includes southeastern Pakistan and Kachchh in western India.

    Its etymology is twofold. Mām is an honorific title in Kachchhi and Gujarati languages, meaning kindness, courage and pride. Māmadō is a local version of the name Muhammad that often appeared in surnames in Hindu castes that converted to Islam, such as the Memons.

    The Khoja were categorized by the British in the early 19th century as “Hindoo Mussalman” because their traditions spanned both religions.

    Over time, the Khoja came to be identified only as Muslim and then primarily as Shiite Muslim. Today, the majority of Khoja are Ismaili: a branch of Shiite Islam that follows the Aga Khan as their living imam.

    The Mamdani family, however, is part of the Twelver community of Khoja, whose Twelfth Imam is believed to be hidden from the world and only emerges in times of crisis. Twelvers believe he will help usher in an age of peace during end times.

    Around the late 18th century, the Khoja helped export textiles, manufactured goods, spices and gems from the Indian subcontinent to Arabia and East Africa. Through this Western Indian Ocean trading network, they imported timber, ivory, minerals and cloves, among other goods.

    Khoja family firms were built on kinship networks and trust. They built networks of shops, communal housing and warehouses, and extended credit for thousands of miles, from Zanzibar in Tanzania to Bombay – now Mumbai – on the western coast of India.

    Cousins and brothers would send money and goods across the ocean with only a letter. The precarious nature of trade in this period meant that families also served as insurance for each other. In times of wealth, it was shared; in times of disaster, help was available.

    Khoja contributions in Africa

    The Khoja became instrumental in building the commercial infrastructure of eastern, central and southern Africa. But the Khoja contribution to the development of Africa extended far beyond trade.

    In the absence of colonial investment in public infrastructure, they helped build institutions that formed the foundation of the modern nation-states that emerged after colonization. The institutions both facilitated trade and established permanent communities.

    For example, the first dispensary and public school in Zanzibar were constructed by a Khoja magnate, Tharia Topan, who made his wealth through the ivory and clove trades. Topan eventually became so prominent that he was knighted by Queen Victoria in 1890 for his service to the British Empire in helping to end slavery in East Africa.

    The Khoja community continues to invest in East Africa. The most famous example is the Aga Khan Development Network, whose hospitals and schools operate in 30 countries. In places such as Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, they are considered the best.

    Khoja in Uganda

    Like in other parts of Africa, the Khoja settled in Uganda as a liaison business community to develop a market to serve both African and European needs. The linguistic and cultural knowledge, developed over centuries, helped facilitate business despite the challenges of colonization.

    Ugandan President Idi Amin and his wife, Sarah, in Rome on Sept. 10, 1975.
    AP Photo

    However, in 1972, Ugandan dictator Idi Amin expelled all Asians – approximately 80,000 – forcing families like the Mamdanis into exile. These included indentured laborers, who were brought in to help build the railroad and farm during the British colonial period, and free traders, like the Mamdani family.

    Amin saw them all as the same and famously said: “Asians came to Uganda to build the railway. The railway is finished. They must leave now.”

    The experience was a bitter one. Families lost everything, and many left with only the clothes on their backs.

    Mahmood Mamdani, who came from a Khoja merchant family, was 26 when he was exiled. Yet, unlike most Ugandan Asians, he chose to go back. At Makerere University in Kampala, Uganda’s capital, Mamdani set up the Institute for Social Research, which helped to provide rigorous social science training to Ugandan researchers trying to improve their society.

    While the earlier generations of the Khoja tended to choose business or adjacent professions, such as accounting, the subsequent generations – particularly those educated in the West – embraced the knowledge economy as professionals, academics and nonprofit leaders.

    Several of Mahmood Mamdani’s generation of Khoja academics conducted path-breaking work on Afro-Asian solidarity – a way of thinking about the world beyond colonial categories, such as the category of religion as a separate domain from the secular. These scholars, such as Tanzania’s Issa Shivji and Abdul Sheriff, worked on creating solidarity among the newly independent states of the Global South.

    Mahmood Mamdani is known for his influential post-9/11 academic work, “Good Muslim, Bad Muslim,” which examined how Muslim identities are stereotyped. He argued that these identities are complex and varied, shaped by accumulated history and present experiences.

    Interfaith identity

    The Khoja community – known globally as the Khoja Shia Ithnasheri Muslim Community – has developed strong transnational connections. Today, they are concentrated in the United Kingdom, Canada, United States and France. However, Khoja can be found in almost any country in the world. In 2013, I met members of the community in Hong Kong.

    The Khoja community plays an important role in interfaith dialogue and global development initiatives. A prominent Ismaili Khoja, Eboo Patel, the founder of Interfaith America, has dedicated his life to pluralism and mutual understanding through building up civil society.

    Zohran Mamdani’s mother, acclaimed filmmaker Mira Nair, is Hindu by birth. This interfaith marriage exemplifies the flexibility, diversity and tolerance of Khoja Islam, which has historically navigated between Hindu and Islamic traditions.

    Whether Mamdani’s policies prove practical remains to be seen, but his background offers something valuable: a deep understanding of how communities build resilience across generations and geographies.

    Iqbal Akhtar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Zohran Mamdani’s last name reflects centuries of intercontinental trade, migration and cultural exchange – https://theconversation.com/zohran-mamdanis-last-name-reflects-centuries-of-intercontinental-trade-migration-and-cultural-exchange-259967

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Zohran Mamdani’s last name reflects centuries of intercontinental trade, migration and cultural exchange

    Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Iqbal Akhtar, Associate Professor of Religious Studies, Florida International University

    Zohran Mamdani takes photos with union members during a campaign rally at the Hotel and Gaming Trades Council headquarters in New York on July 2, 2025. AP Photo/Richard Drew

    When Zohran Mamdani announced his candidacy for mayor of New York City, political observers noted his progressive platform and legislative record. But understanding the Democratic candidate’s background requires examining the rich cultural tapestry woven into his very surname: Mamdani.

    He takes the name from his father, Mahmood Mamdani, a prominent academic who was raised in Uganda and whose work focuses on postcolonial Uganda. I studied the history of the Khoja community for my doctoral work and have helped develop Khoja studies as an academic discipline. The Mamdani surname tells a story of migration, resilience and community-building that spans centuries and continents.

    The Khoja history

    Mamdanis in Uganda belong to the Khoja community, a South Asian Muslim merchant caste, that shaped economic development across the western Indian Ocean for centuries.

    The name originates from greater Sindh, a region in South Asia that today includes southeastern Pakistan and Kachchh in western India.

    Its etymology is twofold. Mām is an honorific title in Kachchhi and Gujarati languages, meaning kindness, courage and pride. Māmadō is a local version of the name Muhammad that often appeared in surnames in Hindu castes that converted to Islam, such as the Memons.

    The Khoja were categorized by the British in the early 19th century as “Hindoo Mussalman” because their traditions spanned both religions.

    Over time, the Khoja came to be identified only as Muslim and then primarily as Shiite Muslim. Today, the majority of Khoja are Ismaili: a branch of Shiite Islam that follows the Aga Khan as their living imam.

    The Mamdani family, however, is part of the Twelver community of Khoja, whose Twelfth Imam is believed to be hidden from the world and only emerges in times of crisis. Twelvers believe he will help usher in an age of peace during end times.

    Around the late 18th century, the Khoja helped export textiles, manufactured goods, spices and gems from the Indian subcontinent to Arabia and East Africa. Through this Western Indian Ocean trading network, they imported timber, ivory, minerals and cloves, among other goods.

    Khoja family firms were built on kinship networks and trust. They built networks of shops, communal housing and warehouses, and extended credit for thousands of miles, from Zanzibar in Tanzania to Bombay – now Mumbai – on the western coast of India.

    Cousins and brothers would send money and goods across the ocean with only a letter. The precarious nature of trade in this period meant that families also served as insurance for each other. In times of wealth, it was shared; in times of disaster, help was available.

    Khoja contributions in Africa

    The Khoja became instrumental in building the commercial infrastructure of eastern, central and southern Africa. But the Khoja contribution to the development of Africa extended far beyond trade.

    In the absence of colonial investment in public infrastructure, they helped build institutions that formed the foundation of the modern nation-states that emerged after colonization. The institutions both facilitated trade and established permanent communities.

    For example, the first dispensary and public school in Zanzibar were constructed by a Khoja magnate, Tharia Topan, who made his wealth through the ivory and clove trades. Topan eventually became so prominent that he was knighted by Queen Victoria in 1890 for his service to the British Empire in helping to end slavery in East Africa.

    The Khoja community continues to invest in East Africa. The most famous example is the Aga Khan Development Network, whose hospitals and schools operate in 30 countries. In places such as Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, they are considered the best.

    Khoja in Uganda

    Like in other parts of Africa, the Khoja settled in Uganda as a liaison business community to develop a market to serve both African and European needs. The linguistic and cultural knowledge, developed over centuries, helped facilitate business despite the challenges of colonization.

    Ugandan President Idi Amin and his wife, Sarah, in Rome on Sept. 10, 1975.
    AP Photo

    However, in 1972, Ugandan dictator Idi Amin expelled all Asians – approximately 80,000 – forcing families like the Mamdanis into exile. These included indentured laborers, who were brought in to help build the railroad and farm during the British colonial period, and free traders, like the Mamdani family.

    Amin saw them all as the same and famously said: “Asians came to Uganda to build the railway. The railway is finished. They must leave now.”

    The experience was a bitter one. Families lost everything, and many left with only the clothes on their backs.

    Mahmood Mamdani, who came from a Khoja merchant family, was 26 when he was exiled. Yet, unlike most Ugandan Asians, he chose to go back. At Makerere University in Kampala, Uganda’s capital, Mamdani set up the Institute for Social Research, which helped to provide rigorous social science training to Ugandan researchers trying to improve their society.

    While the earlier generations of the Khoja tended to choose business or adjacent professions, such as accounting, the subsequent generations – particularly those educated in the West – embraced the knowledge economy as professionals, academics and nonprofit leaders.

    Several of Mahmood Mamdani’s generation of Khoja academics conducted path-breaking work on Afro-Asian solidarity – a way of thinking about the world beyond colonial categories, such as the category of religion as a separate domain from the secular. These scholars, such as Tanzania’s Issa Shivji and Abdul Sheriff, worked on creating solidarity among the newly independent states of the Global South.

    Mahmood Mamdani is known for his influential post-9/11 academic work, “Good Muslim, Bad Muslim,” which examined how Muslim identities are stereotyped. He argued that these identities are complex and varied, shaped by accumulated history and present experiences.

    Interfaith identity

    The Khoja community – known globally as the Khoja Shia Ithnasheri Muslim Community – has developed strong transnational connections. Today, they are concentrated in the United Kingdom, Canada, United States and France. However, Khoja can be found in almost any country in the world. In 2013, I met members of the community in Hong Kong.

    The Khoja community plays an important role in interfaith dialogue and global development initiatives. A prominent Ismaili Khoja, Eboo Patel, the founder of Interfaith America, has dedicated his life to pluralism and mutual understanding through building up civil society.

    Zohran Mamdani’s mother, acclaimed filmmaker Mira Nair, is Hindu by birth. This interfaith marriage exemplifies the flexibility, diversity and tolerance of Khoja Islam, which has historically navigated between Hindu and Islamic traditions.

    Whether Mamdani’s policies prove practical remains to be seen, but his background offers something valuable: a deep understanding of how communities build resilience across generations and geographies.

    Iqbal Akhtar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Zohran Mamdani’s last name reflects centuries of intercontinental trade, migration and cultural exchange – https://theconversation.com/zohran-mamdanis-last-name-reflects-centuries-of-intercontinental-trade-migration-and-cultural-exchange-259967

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Who was the first pirate?

    Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Brandon Prins, Professor of Political Science, University of Tennessee

    Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to curiouskidsus@theconversation.com.

    Who was the first pirate? – Yandel R., age 11, Lakewood Ranch, Florida

    When most people imagine a pirate, they picture actor Johnny Depp playing the mad but likable swashbuckler Jack Sparrow, captain of the sailing ship the Black Pearl.

    Depp’s pirate portrayal was inspired by seafaring bandits in older make-believe tales, such as Long John Silver in “Treasure Island,” Captain Hook in “Peter Pan,” or sailor Edmond Dantès in “The Count of Monte Cristo.”

    A 1915 edition of ‘Treasure Island’ illustrated Long John Silver with iconic pirate features.
    Louis Rhead/Historica Graphica Collection/Heritage Images via Getty Images

    Pirates in these stories were mischievous but also glamorous, courageous and mostly kindhearted. They wore flashy costumes. They had missing limbs, like Captain Cook’s iron hook for a left hand and Long John Silver’s wooden peg leg. They buried treasure chests of gold and silver, forced enemies to walk the plank and had talking parrots as shipboard companions. They flew the Jolly Roger skull and crossbones flag from the ship’s mast to frighten enemies. The new Netflix series “One Piece,” which is based on a Japanese comic book, continues this popular depiction of pirates.

    While fun, these portrayals of pirates are mostly invented.

    I’m a political scientist who studies modern-day commerce raiding: robbing of private cargo vessels on the high seas. I’m interested in where it happens in the world, who does it and what can be done to stop it. My research finds today’s pirates to be less like swashbuckling Jack Sparrow and more like regular old thieves.

    Pirates in the ancient world

    Since pirates have been around for as long as people have moved things by boat, it is hard to pin down the very first pirate.

    Ancient Egyptians tied bundles of reeds together to form watertight boats.
    Werner Forman/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    But archaeological evidence shows that boatbuilding goes all the way back to the ancient Egyptians, who used boats made from papyrus reeds as early as 6,000 years ago. These vessels likely carried valuable goods up and down the Nile River, and where valuable goods can be found, you can usually find thieves too. In fact, researchers know that pirates – basically just thieves on the water – targeted these river boats, because Egyptian pharaohs left records grumbling about pirates and their widespread pillaging.

    By 3,500 years ago, thieves were using sailing vessels to raid coastal towns and villages in and around the Nile Delta, as well as the Aegean and Adriatic basins. Attacking ships far from land on the high seas and stealing the cargo was a logical next step in the tactics of seafaring raiders.

    As trade increased across the Mediterranean Sea, boats carrying valuable cargo, such as pottery, silk, glass, spices and metals, became the targets of ancient pirates. Given the worth of these goods, pirate attacks became widespread across the ancient Mediterranean Sea. With money from the Roman senate and strong effort by a military leader named Pompey, the Roman navy worked hard to stop the pirates – and for a while it did.

    The earliest named pirate?

    The first mention of a pirate by name may have been in a Greek history book written in the fifth century BCE by an ancient historian named Herodotus.

    He briefly describes the adventures of a naval commander by the name of Dionysius who was from Ionia, which is in modern-day Turkey. Dionysius set up a pirate base on the island of Sicily that allowed him and his fellow pirates to plunder ships that happened to sail past.

    Pirates of the Caribbean

    While Dionysius may have been the first recorded pirate, the most famous pirates lived during the 17th and 18th centuries, which came to be known as the golden age of sea piracy.

    This was the heyday of pirates such as Blackbeard, also known as Edward Teach; William Kidd; Henry Morgan; Calico Jack; and Anne Bonny. They plundered Spanish treasure ships in the Caribbean, known as the Spanish Main, that were carrying silver from the mines in Bolivia back to the king of Spain.

    Islands such as Jamaica, Tortuga and the Bahamas, as well the North Carolina coast, all became notable pirate havens. Port Royal, on the island of Jamaica, in particular, was a notorious pirate refuge. It was ideally positioned for preying upon Spanish galleons sailing across the Atlantic from ports in Panama and Venezuela. Johnny Depp’s character, Jack Sparrow, swashbuckled around a fictionalized Port Royal in the first “Pirates of the Caribbean” film.

    Each dot represents a maritime pirate attack that happened between 1995 and 2023.
    Brandon Prins

    21st-century pirates

    The 2013 Hollywood movie “Captain Phillips,” starring Tom Hanks, drew attention back to real-world pirates and piracy. The movie was based on a real-life 2009 attack by Somali pirates on a ship named the MV Maersk Alabama, which was carrying food to Kenya. The 500-foot-long vessel and its crew were rescued by the U.S. Navy.

    To better understand 21st-century piracy, my research team compiled data on all pirate attacks from 1995 to the present day. We found three main piracy hot spots: the Gulf of Aden near Somalia, the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia and the Gulf of Guinea off the coast of West Africa. All three locations experience the conditions that attract pirates: ship traffic, valuable cargo and weak governments.

    Why become a pirate?

    People become pirates for many reasons, not the least of which is to escape poverty and enslavement. Others just want adventure and to travel the world. These are the same motivations that drove commerce raiding in the ancient world, during the golden age of piracy, and even today.

    While we may never know the first pirate, just like we will never know the very first thief, historical evidence shows that sea-raiding has been around since the very first boats traversed the world’s waterways. Despite efforts to end piracy, my research shows that the conditions that produce ship looting remain and will likely always exist.

    Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

    And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

    Brandon Prins received funding from the U.S. Department of Defense, Office of Naval Research, through the Minerva Initiative, awards #N00014-21-1-2030 and #N00014-14-1-0050.

    – ref. Who was the first pirate? – https://theconversation.com/who-was-the-first-pirate-256314

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-Evening Report: David Robie condemns ‘callous’ health legacy of French, US nuclear bomb tests in Pacific

    Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. –

    A journalist who was on the Rainbow Warrior voyage to Rongelap last night condemned France for its “callous” attack of an environmental ship, saying “we haven’t forgotten, or forgiven this outrage”.

    David Robie, the author of Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior, said at the launch that the consequences of almost 300 US and French nuclear tests – many of them “dirty bombs” — were still impacting on indigenous Pacific peoples 40 years after the bombing of the ship.

    French saboteurs had killed “our shipmate Fernando Pereira” on 10 July 1985 in what the New Zealand prime minister at the time, David Lange, called a “sordid act of international state-backed terrorism”.

    Although relations with France had perhaps mellowed over time, four decades ago there was a lot of hostility towards the country, Dr Robie said.

    “And that act of mindless sabotage still rankles very deeply in our psyche,” he said at the launch in Auckland Central’s Ellen Melville Centre on the anniversary of July 10.

    About 100 people gathered in the centre’s Pioneer Women’s Hall for the book launch as Dr Robie reflected on the case of state terrorism after Greenpeace earlier in the day held a memorial ceremony on board Rainbow Warrior III.

    “One of the celebrated French newspapers, Le Monde, played a critical role in the investigation into the Rainbow Warrior affair — what I brand as ‘Blundergate’, in view of all the follies of the bumbling DGSE spy team,” he said.

    Plantu cartoon
    “And one of the cartoons in that newspaper, by Plantu, who is a sort of French equivalent to Michael Leunig, caught my eye.

    “You will notice it in the background slide show behind me. It shows François Mitterrand, the president of the French republic at the time, dressed in a frogman’s wetsuit lecturing to school children during a history lesson.

    “President Mitterrand says, in French, ‘At that time, only presidents had the right to carry out terrorism!’

    Tahitian advocate Ena Manurevia . . . the background Plantu cartoon is the one mentioned by the author. Image: Asia Pacific Report

    He noticed that in the Mitterrand cartoon there was a “classmate” sitting in the back of the room with a moustache. This was none other than Edwy Plenel, the police reporter for Le Monde at the time, who scooped the world with hard evidence of Mitterrand and the French government’s role at the highest level in the Rainbow Warrior sabotage.

    Dr Robie said that Plenel now published the investigative website Mediapart, which had played a key role in 2015 revealing the identity of the bomber that night, “the man who had planted the limpet mines on the Rainbow Warrior — sinking a peace and environmental ship, and killing Fernando Pereira.”

    Jean-Luc Kister, a retired French colonel and DGSE secret agent, had confessed to his role and “apologised”, claiming the sabotage operation was “disproportionate and a mistake”.

    “Was he sincere? Was it a genuine attempt to come to terms with his conscience. Who knows?” Dr Robie said, adding that he was unconvinced.

    Hilari Anderson (right on stage), one of the speakers, with Del Abcede and MC Antony Phillips (obscured) . . . the background image shows Helen Clark meeting Fernando Pereira’s daughter Marelle in 2005. Image: Greenpeace

    French perspective
    Dr Robie said he had asked Plenel for his reflections from a French perspective 40 years on. Plenel cited three main take ways.

    “First, the vital necessity of independent journalism. Independent of all powers, whether state, economic or ideological. Journalism that serves the public interest, the right to know, and factual truths.

    “Impactful journalism whose revelations restore confidence in democracy, in the possibility of improving it, and in the usefulness of counterbalancing powers, particularly journalism.”

    Secondly, this attack had been carried out by France in an “allied country”, New Zealand, against a civil society organisation. This demonstrated that “the thirst for power is a downfall that leads nations astray when they succumb to it.

    “Nuclear weapons epitomise this madness, this catastrophe of power.”


    Eyes of Fire 10 years ago . . . same author, same publisher.    Video: Pacific Media Centre

    Finally, Plenel expressed the “infinite sadness” for a French citizen that after his revelations in Le Monde — which led to the resignations of the defence minister and the head of the secret services — nothing else happened.

    “Nothing at all. No parliamentary inquiry, no questioning of François Mitterrand about his responsibility, no institutional reform of the absolute power of the president in a French republic that is, in reality, an elective monarchy.”

    ‘Elective monarchy’ trend
    Dr Robie compared the French outcome with the rapid trend in US today, “a president who thinks he is a monarch, a king – another elective monarchy.”

    He also bemoaned that “catastrophe of power” that “reigns everywhere today – from the horrendous Israeli genocide in Gaza to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, from Trump to Putin to Netanyahu, and so many others.”

    The continuous Gaza massacres were a shameful indictment of the West that had allowed it to happen for more than 21 months.

    Dr Robie thanked many collaborators for their help and support, including drama teacher Hilari Anderson, an original crew member of the Rainbow Warrior, and photographer John Miller, “who have been with me all the way on this waka journey”.

    He thanked his wife, Del, and family members for their unstinting “patience and support”, and also publisher Tony Murrow of Little Island Press.

    Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior . . . published 10 July 2025. Image: David Robie/Little Island Press

    Launching the book, Greenpeace Aotearoa programme director Niamh O’Flynn said one thing that had stood out for her was how the legacy of the Rainbow Warrior had continued despite the attempt by the French government to shut it down 40 years ago.

    “We said then that ‘you can’t sink a rainbow’, and we went on to prove it.

    “When the Rainbow Warrior was bombed in Auckland harbour, it was getting ready to set sail to Moruroa Atoll, to enter the test exclusion zone and confront French nuclear testing head-on.”

    So threatened
    The French government had felt so threatened by that action that it had engaged in a state-sanctioned terror attack to prevent the mission from going ahead.

    “But we rebuilt, and the Rainbow Warrior II carried on with that mission, travelling to Moruroa three times before the French finally stopped nuclear testing in the Pacific.

    “That spirit and tenacity is what makes Greenpeace and what makes the Rainbow Warrior so special to everyone who has sailed on her,” she said.

    “It was the final voyage of the Rainbow Warrior to Rongelap before the bombing that is the focus of David Robie’s book, and in many ways, it was an incredibly unique experience for Greenpeace — not just here in Aotearoa, but internationally.

    “And of course David was a key part in that.”

    O’Flynn said that as someone who had not even been born yet when the Rainbow Warrior was bombed, “I am so grateful that the generation of nuclear-free activists took the time to pass on their knowledge and to build our organisation into what it is today.

    “Just as David has by writing down his story and leaving us with such a rich legacy.”

    Greenpeace Aotearoa programme director Niamh O’Flynn . . . “That spirit and tenacity is what makes Greenpeace and what makes the Rainbow Warrior so special to everyone who has sailed on her.” Image: APR

    Other speakers
    Among other speakers at the book launch were teacher Hilari Anderson, publisher Tony Murrow of Little Island Press, Ena Manuireva, a Mangarevian scholar and cultural adviser, and MC Antony Phillips of Heritage New Zealand Pouhere Taonga.

    Anderson spoke of the Warrior’s early campaigns and acknowledged the crews of 1978 and 1985.

    “I have been reflecting what these first and last crews of the original Rainbow Warrior had in common, realising that both gave their collective, mostly youthful energy — to transformation.

    “This has involved the bonding of crews by working hands-on together. Touching surfaces, by hammer and paint, created a physical connection to this beloved boat.”

    She paid special tribute to two powerful women, Denise Bell, who tracked down the marine research vessel in Aberdeen that became the Rainbow Warrior, and the indomitable Susi Newborn, who “contributed to naming the ship and mustering a crew”.

    Manuireva spoke about his nuclear colonial experience and that of his family as natives of Mangareva atoll, about 400 km from Muroroa atoll, where France conducted most of its 30 years of tests ending in 1995.

    He also spoke of Tahitian leader Oscar Temaru’s pioneering role in the Nuclear-Free and Independent Pacific (NFIP) movement, and played haunting Tahitian songs on his guitar.

    This article was first published on Café Pacific.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Cleaner air in east Asia has driven recent acceleration in global warming – new study

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Laura Wilcox, Professor, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading

    A traffic jam in Beijing in China, where air pollution has drastically reduced. Hung Chung Chih/Shutterstock

    Global warming has picked up pace since around 2010, leading to the recent string of record warm years. Why this is happening is still unclear, and among the biggest questions in climate science today. Our new study reveals that reductions in air pollution – particularly in China and east Asia – are a key reason for this faster warming.

    Cleanup of sulphur emissions from global shipping has been implicated in past research. But that cleanup only began in 2020, so it’s considered too weak to explain the full extent of this acceleration. Nasa researchers have suggested that changes in clouds could play a role, either through reductions in cloud cover in the tropics or over the North Pacific.

    One factor that has not been well quantified, however, is the effect of monumental efforts by countries in east Asia, notably China, to combat air pollution and improve public health through strict air quality policies. There has already been a 75% reduction in east Asian sulphur dioxide emissions since around 2013, and that cleanup effort picked up pace just as global warming began accelerating.

    Our study addresses the link between east Asian air quality improvements and global temperature, building on the efforts of eight teams of climate modellers across the world.

    We have found that polluted air may have been masking the full effects of global warming. Cleaner air could now be revealing more of the human-induced global warming from greenhouse gases.

    In addition to causing millions of premature deaths, air pollution shields the Earth from sunlight and therefore cools the surface. There has been so much air pollution that it has held human-induced warming in check by up to 0.5°C over the last century.

    With the cleanup of air pollution, something that’s vital for human health, this artificial sunshade is removed. Since greenhouse gas emissions have kept on increasing, the result is that the Earth’s surface is warming faster than ever before.

    Modelling the cleanup

    Our team used 160 computer simulations from eight global climate models. This enabled us to better quantify the effects that east Asian air pollution has on global temperature and rainfall patterns. We simulated a cleanup of pollution similar to what has happened in the real world since 2010. We found an extra global warming of around 0.07°C.

    While this is a small number compared with the full global warming of around 1.3°C since 1850, it is still enough to explain the recent acceleration in global warming when we take away year-to-year swings in temperature from natural cycles such as El Niño, a climate phenomenon in the Pacific that affects weather patterns globally.

    Thick smog influences the effect of greenhouse gases.
    Shaun Robinson/Shutterstock

    Based on long-term trends, we would have expected around 0.23°C of warming since 2010. However, we actually measured around 0.33°C. While the additional 0.1°C can largely be explained by the east Asian air pollution cleanup, other factors include the change in shipping emissions and the recent accelerated increase in methane concentrations in the atmosphere.

    Air pollution causes cooling by reflecting sunlight or by changing the properties of clouds so they reflect more sunlight. The cleanup in east Asian air pollution influences global temperatures because it reduces the shading effect of the pollution over east Asia itself. It also means less pollution is blown across the north Pacific, causing clouds in the east Pacific to reflect less sunlight.

    The pattern of these changes across the North Pacific simulated in our models matches that seen in satellite observations. Our models and temperature observations also show relatively strong warming over the North Pacific, downwind from east Asia.

    The main source of global warming is still greenhouse gas emissions, and a cleanup of air pollution was both necessary and overdue. This did not cause the additional warming but rather, removed an artificial cooling that has for a time helped shield us from some of the extreme weather and other well-established consequences of climate change.

    Global warming will continue for decades. Indeed, our past and future emissions of greenhouse gases will affect the climate for centuries. However, air pollution is quickly removed from the atmosphere, and the recent acceleration in global warming from this particular unmasking may therefore be short-lived.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Laura Wilcox receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the Research Council of Norway, the Clean Air Fund, and Horizon Europe.

    Bjørn H. Samset receives funding from the Research Council of Norway, the Clean Air Fund, and Horizon Europe.

    – ref. Cleaner air in east Asia has driven recent acceleration in global warming – new study – https://theconversation.com/cleaner-air-in-east-asia-has-driven-recent-acceleration-in-global-warming-new-study-260601

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Was the Air India crash caused by pilot error or technical fault? None of the theories holds up – yet

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Guido Carim Junior, Senior Lecturer in Aviation, Griffith University

    Over the weekend, the Indian Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau released a preliminary report on last month’s crash of Air India flight 171, which killed 260 people, 19 of them on the ground.

    The aim of a preliminary report is to present factual information gathered so far and to inform further lines of inquiry. However, the 15-page document has also led to unfounded speculation and theories that are currently not supported by the evidence.

    Here’s what the report actually says, why we don’t yet know what caused the crash, and why it’s important not to speculate.

    What the preliminary report does say

    What we know for certain is that the aircraft lost power in both engines just after takeoff.

    According to the report, this is supported by video footage showing the deployment of the ram air turbine (RAT), and the examination of the air inlet door of the auxiliary power unit (APU).

    The RAT is deployed when both engines fail, all hydraulic systems are lost, or there is a total electrical power loss. The APU air inlet door opens when the system attempts to start automatically due to dual engine failure.

    The preliminary investigation suggests both engines shut down because the fuel flow stopped. Attention has now shifted to the fuel control switches, located on the throttle lever panel between the pilots.

    This is what the fuel switches look like, with the throttle lever above them.
    Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau

    Data from the enhanced airborne flight recorder suggests these switches may have been moved from “run” to “cutoff” three seconds after liftoff. Ten seconds later, the switches were moved back to “run”.

    The report also suggests the pilots were aware the engines had shut down and attempted to restart them. Despite their effort, the engines couldn’t restart in time.

    We don’t know what the pilots did

    Flight data recorders don’t capture pilot actions. They record system responses and sensor data, which can sometimes lead to the belief they’re an accurate representation of the pilot’s actions in the cockpit.

    While this is true most of the time, this is not always the case.

    In my own work investigating safety incidents, I’ve seen cases in which automated systems misinterpreted inputs. In one case, a system recorded a pilot pressing the same button six times in two seconds, something humanly impossible. On further investigation, it turned out to be a faulty system, not a real action.

    We cannot yet rule out the possibility that system damage or sensor error led to false data being recorded. We also don’t know whether the pilots unintentionally flicked the switches to “cutoff”. And we may never know.

    As we also don’t have a camera in the cockpit, any interpretation of pilots’ actions will be made indirectly, usually through the data sensed by the aircraft and the conversation, sound and noise captured by the environmental microphone available in the cockpit.

    We don’t have the full conversation between the pilots

    Perhaps the most confusing clue in the report was an excerpt of a conversation between the pilots. It says:

    In the cockpit voice recording, one of the pilots is heard asking the other why did he cutoff. The other pilot responded that he did not do so.

    This short exchange is entirely without context. First, we don’t know who says what. Second, we don’t know when the question was asked – after takeoff, or after the engine started to lose power? Third, we don’t know the exact words used, because the excerpt in the report is paraphrased.

    Finally, we don’t know whether the exchange referred to the engine status or the switch position. Again, we may never know.

    What’s crucial here is that the current available evidence doesn’t support any theory about intentional fuel cutoff by either of the pilots. To say otherwise is unfounded speculation.

    We don’t know if there was a mechanical failure

    The preliminary report indicates that, for now, there are no actions required by Boeing, General Electric or any company that operates the Boeing 787-8 and/or GEnx-1B engine.

    This has led some to speculate that a mechanical failure has been ruled out. Again, it is far too early to conclude that.

    What the preliminary report shows is that the investigation team has not found any evidence to suggest the aircraft suffered a catastrophic failure that requires immediate attention or suspension of operations around the world.

    This could be because there was no catastrophic failure. It could also be because the physical evidence has been so badly damaged that investigators will need more time and other sources of evidence to learn what happened.

    Why we must resist premature conclusions

    In the aftermath of an accident, there is much at stake for many people: the manufacturer of the aircraft, the airline, the airport, civil aviation authority and others. The families of the victims understandably demand answers.

    It’s also tempting to latch onto a convenient explanation. But the preliminary report is not the full story. It’s based on very limited data, analysed under immense pressure, and without access to every subsystem or mechanical trace.

    The final report is still to come. Until then, the responsible position for regulators, experts and the public is to withhold judgement.

    This tragedy reminds us that aviation safety depends on patient and thorough investigation – not media soundbites or unqualified expert commentary. We owe it to the victims and their families to get the facts right, not just fast.

    Guido Carim Junior has received funding from Boeing R&D Australia to conduct research projects in the past five years.

    – ref. Was the Air India crash caused by pilot error or technical fault? None of the theories holds up – yet – https://theconversation.com/was-the-air-india-crash-caused-by-pilot-error-or-technical-fault-none-of-the-theories-holds-up-yet-261102

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: UNESCO grants World Heritage status to Khmer Rouge atrocity sites – paving the way for other sites of conflict

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Hughes, Associate Professor of Geography, The University of Melbourne

    A series of atrocity sites of the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia have been formally entered onto the World Heritage list, as part of the 47th session of the World Heritage Committee.

    This is not only important for Cambodia, but also raises important questions for atrocity sites in Australia.

    Before this, the World Heritage list only recognised seven “sites of memory” associated with recent conflicts, which UNESCO defines as “events having occurred from the turn of the 20th century” under its criterion vi. These sat within a broader list of more than 950 cultural sites.

    In recent years, experts have intensely debated the question of whether a site associated with recent conflict could, or should, be nominated and evaluated for World Heritage status. Some argue such listings would contradict the objectives of UNESCO and its spirit of peace, which was part of the specialised agency’s mandate after the destruction of two world wars.

    Sites associated with recent conflicts can be divisive. For instance, when Japan nominated the Hiroshima Peace Memorial, both China and the United States objected and eventually disassociated from the decision. The US argued the nomination lacked “historical perspective” on the events that led to the bomb’s use. Meanwhile, China argued listing the property would not be conducive for peace as other Asian countries and peoples had suffered at the hands of the Japanese during WWII.

    Heritage inscriptions risk reinforcing societal divisions if they conserve a particular memory in a one-sided way.

    Nonetheless, the World Heritage Committee decided in 2023 to no longer preclude such sites for inscription. This was done partly in recognition of how these sites may “serve the peace-building mission of UNESCO”.

    Shortly after, three listing were added: the ESMA Museum and Site of Memory, a former clandestine centre for detention, torture and extermination in Argentina; memorial sites of the Rwandan genocide at Nyamata, Murambi, Gisozi and Bisesero; and funerary and memory sites of the first world war in Belgium and France.

    A number of legacy sites associated with Nelson Mandela’s human rights struggle in South Africa were also added last year.

    Atrocities of the Khmer Rouge

    The recently inscribed Cambodian Memorial Sites include prisons S-21 (now known as Tuol Sleng Genocide Museum) and M-13, as well as the execution site Choeung Ek.

    These sites were nominated for their value in showing the development of extreme mass violence in relation to the security system of the Khmer Rouge in 1975–79. They also have value as places of memorialisation, peace and learning.

    The Khmer Rouge developed its methods of disappearance, incarceration and torture of suspected “enemies” during the civil conflict of 1970–75. It established a system of local-level security centres in so-called “liberated” areas.

    One of these centres was known as M-13, a small, well-hidden prison in the country’s rural southwest. A man named Kaing Guek Eav – also called Duch – was responsible for prisoners at M-13.

    Shortly after the entire country fell to the Khmer Rouge in April 1975, Duch was assigned to lead the headquarters of the regime’s security system: a large detention and torture centre known as S-21.

    Under his instruction, tens of thousands of people were detained in inhumane conditions, tortured and interrogated. Many detainees were later taken to the outskirts of the city to be brutally killed and buried in pits at a place called Choeung Ek.

    The sites operated until early 1979, when the Khmer Rouge was forced from power.

    The S-21 facility and the mass graves at Choeung Ek have long been memorialised as the Tuol Sleng Genocide Museum and the Choeung Ek Genocidal Centre.

    However, the former M-13 site shows few visual clues to its prior use, and has only recently been investigated by an international team led by Cambodian archaeologist and museum director Hang Nisay. The site is on an island in a small river that forms the boundary between the Kampong Chhnang and Kampong Speu provinces.

    Further research, site protection and memorialisation activities will now be supported, with help from locals.

    From repression to reflection

    The Cambodian memorial sites have been recognised as holding “outstanding universal value” for the way they evidence one of the 20th century’s worst atrocities, and are now places of memory.

    In its nomination dossier for these sites, Cambodia drew on findings from the Khmer Rouge Tribunal to verify and link the conflict and the sites.

    In 2010, the tribunal found Duch guilty of crimes against humanity and grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions. Duch was sentenced to 30 years in prison (which eventually turned into life imprisonment). He died in 2020.

    While courts such as the International Criminal Court have previously examined the destruction of heritage as an international crime, drawing on legal findings to assert heritage status is an unusual inverse. It raises important questions about the legacies of former UN-supported tribunals and the ongoing implications of their findings.

    The recent listings also raise questions for Australia, which has many sites of documented mass killing associated with colonisation and the frontier wars that lasted into the 20th century.

    Might Australia nominate any of these atrocity sites in the future? And could other processes such as truth-telling, reparation and redress support (or be supported by) such nominations?

    The Conversation

    Rachel Hughes has consulted to UNESCO Cambodia.

    Maria Elander does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. UNESCO grants World Heritage status to Khmer Rouge atrocity sites – paving the way for other sites of conflict – https://theconversation.com/unesco-grants-world-heritage-status-to-khmer-rouge-atrocity-sites-paving-the-way-for-other-sites-of-conflict-260923

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Treasury warns the government it may not balance the budget or meet its housing targets

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Head, Canberra School of Government, University of Canberra

    Kokkai Ng/Getty

    In the runup to each election, federal treasury produces a “blue book” and a “red book”, with advice tailored to the priorities of the two alternative governments.

    One of these is given to the incoming government and the other is never released. Freedom of Information requests have generally resulted in only heavily redacted versions of the incoming government brief being made public.

    But this week, the table of contents was accidentally released, revealing treasury’s view of how the government should be handling the economy.

    Taxes “need to be raised”

    Treasury suggests more tax should be raised. This is unsurprising – there is bipartisan support for more defence spending, and an ageing population means more spending on health and aged care, only partially offset by less spending on education.



    Read more:
    The 2025 budget has few savings and surprises but it also ignores climate change

    The government is hoping to slow spending on the National Disability Insurance Scheme but it is still projected to grow much faster than government revenue.

    No one wants to default on government debt. So higher bond yields and the deficits incurred during the COVID pandemic, and projected for the next decade, mean governments will be paying more interest.

    There are few areas of government spending expected to contract. So the cruel arithmetic is unless we are happy to keep government debt – already close to a trillion dollars – growing indefinitely, taxes need to rise.

    The challenge is to find the most efficient way to do so. We don’t know whether Treasury made specific suggestions.

    As we will probably hear at next month’s Economic Reform Roundtable, most economists think we should be putting more tax on things we want to discourage (greenhouse gas emissions, consumption of unhealthy products) and less on things we want to encourage (working, saving).

    We want more taxes that do not alter economic activity (such as on land and excess profits from minerals) and less that discourage useful economic activities (such as stamp duties, which discourage mobility). We also want less tax where activity is being driven into black markets (arguably the case with cigarettes).

    There may be some areas where tax concessions are excessive. Superannuation tax concessions are subsidising some rich people to build much larger savings than are needed for a comfortable retirement. (A proposal from the government to trim these will be before the Senate when parliament resumes next week.)

    Capital gains tax concessions, which mainly help the rich, are also hard to justify.

    We also want to consider equity. Most people accept that a tax system should be progressive. This means the rich pay a higher proportion of income in taxes than do the poor. In our current tax system, income and land taxes are progressive but GST and some other excises are regressive. The overall system is roughly proportional.

    Housing target “will not be met”

    Treasury also warned the government that its pledge to build 1.2 million homes over five years will be very difficult to achieve. In the year to June 2024, just 176,000 homes were built.

    Even the relevant ministers have described the target as “ambitious”. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Monday “we will need more effort”.

    Treasury has cast doubt on the government’s plans to build 1.2 million new homes over five years. So far only 176,000 have been built.
    Inga Blessas/Shutterstock

    Many commentators have described how difficult it will be to achieve this target.

    A shortage of construction workers, the impact of planning restrictions, and weak productivity are also concerns. A recent study by the Productivity Commission concluded:

    over the past 30 years, the number of dwellings completed per hour worked by housing construction workers has declined by 53%.

    Concerns about the US

    Another unsurprising revelation in the briefing is Treasury is concerned about the economic consequences of Donald Trump as US president.

    One threat comes from the ever-changing array of tariffs Trump is introducing. If other countries retaliate by raising their own tariffs, the adverse impact on the global economy will be even greater.



    Read more:
    What would a second Trump presidency mean for the global economy?

    We can get some idea of the possible impact on Australia from modelling published by the Reserve Bank. In its Statement on Monetary Policy, the bank presented two alternative scenarios.

    Under what it called the “trade war” scenario, global gross domestic product declines by more than it did during the 2007 global financial crisis. Australian unemployment increases to nearly 6%. Under the “trade peace” scenario, unemployment remains around its current 4% level.

    Another concern held by Treasury was the possible loss of independence of the US Federal Reserve Board (or “Fed”), the counterpart to Australia’s Reserve Bank. Trump has vowed to replace Fed chair Jerome Powell with someone more compliant when Powell’s term ends next year.

    Trump wants the Fed to slash short-term interest rates regardless of the economic circumstances. This would raise the risk of a surge in inflation. It could also lead to higher bond yields, which would flow into higher interest rates charged by banks on loans. This could plunge the US economy into recession, with impacts felt around the world.

    John Hawkins was formerly a senior economist in the Australian Treasury.

    – ref. Treasury warns the government it may not balance the budget or meet its housing targets – https://theconversation.com/treasury-warns-the-government-it-may-not-balance-the-budget-or-meet-its-housing-targets-261084

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Confusing for doctors, inequitable for patients: why Australia’s medicinal cannabis system needs urgent reform

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christine Mary Hallinan, Senior Research Fellow, Department of General Practice and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, The University of Melbourne

    Vanessa Nunes/Getty Images

    In 2024 alone, Australia’s medicines regulator, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), authorised at least 979,000 prescription applications for medicinal cannabis through its specialised access pathways.

    These “specialised access” mechanisms were originally designed for occasional, case-by-case use of unapproved drugs. But they have become mainstream.

    As more and more people receive medicinal cannabis prescriptions, we’re left with a system that is misaligned with its original purpose.

    The current prescribing landscape for medicinal cannabis is confusing for doctors, inequitable for patients, and difficult to regulate.

    The Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency (Ahpra) recently announced it’s going to crack down on unsafe prescribing. But this doesn’t go far enough. The system needs urgent reform.

    What is medicinal cannabis used for?

    Medicinal cannabis was legalised in Australia in 2016. Products come in different forms including oils, liquids, capsules, gels (which can be applied to the skin), dried flower (which can be inhaled using a vapouriser) and gummies.

    Key ingredients include THC (tetrahydrocannabinol) and CBD (cannabidiol). THC is the main psychoactive compound in cannabis, and is responsible if a “high” is experienced.

    When it was first legalised, medicinal cannabis was intended for patients with complex needs and severe, treatment-resistant conditions.

    The TGA clearly indicated medicinal cannabis should not be considered a first-line treatment for any condition, and should be administered with a “start low, go slow” dosage approach.

    Patients for whom it might be deemed appropriate included those receiving palliative care, or suffering with intractable epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, nausea and vomiting from chemotherapy, or chronic pain unresponsive to standard care.

    But over time, prescribing has expanded well beyond these cases. Today, most medicinal cannabis prescriptions are given for relatively common conditions such as chronic pain, anxiety and sleep disorders.

    What does the evidence say?

    The evidence remains inconsistent. Chronic pain – the most common reason medicinal cannabis is prescribed in Australia – offers a key example.

    According to a recent TGA review, some randomised trials suggest medicinal cannabis may help a subset of patients achieve moderate reductions in pain. However, many studies are small, of variable quality, and don’t account for long-term effects.

    And like all medicines, medicinal cannabis carries risks. Products containing THC have been linked to side-effects such as sedation, dizziness and cognitive impairment.

    While generally better tolerated, CBD is not risk-free. For example, both CBD and THC can interact with certain medications, heightening the likelihood of adverse effects.

    Access over evidence

    In Australia, approved medicines undergo rigorous clinical testing before they’re registered. Drug manufacturers’ applications to the TGA normally include detailed data on efficacy as well as long-term safety monitoring and quality controls.

    But driven by patient advocacy, political responsiveness, and commercial momentum, medicinal cannabis has come to reflect a different model.

    Most medicinal cannabis products – bar two which have TGA approval – lack the evidence demonstrating safety, quality and efficacy required of registered pharmaceuticals.

    In other words, the majority are not subject to the rigorous trials or data standards required for formal registration with the TGA’s Australian Register of Therapeutic Goods.

    For many doctors, whose prescribing has traditionally been guided by strong trial data and rigorous regulatory review, this doesn’t sit well.

    Doctors are often flying blind

    While companies can legally sell cannabis products via access schemes without investing in clinical research, doctors are expected to prescribe without consistent information on what works, for whom, and at what dose.

    The TGA oversees access pathways but is neither resourced nor mandated to provide clinical oversight or direct support to prescribers, leaving many clinicians to navigate the system alone.

    Prescriptions are frequently granted via telehealth and posted to patients.

    Growing concerns have emerged that some care models – particularly high-volume telehealth services – are prioritising patient throughput over clinical judgment, and not spending enough time with patients.

    For example, Ahpra reported eight practitioners issued more than 10,000 medicinal cannabis scripts in a six-month period, while one appeared to have issued in excess of 17,000.

    The surge in prescribing has been further shaped by active marketing from some cannabis companies, outpacing the development of coordinated clinical guidance and safety monitoring infrastructure.

    Many people who get a script for medicinal cannabis do so via telehealth.
    Geber86/Shutterstock

    Access and affordability: a system failing patients

    Some people, including those living in rural and remote areas, can find it difficult to navigate medicinal cannabis prescribing processes. This can be due to limited digital access and fewer opportunities for follow-up with a local GP. These challenges make it harder for people to make informed decisions about their care.

    Cost is also a major issue, particularly where bulk billing is unavailable or multiple consultations are needed. This is on top of the cost of the products.

    One of the two TGA-approved medicinal cannabis products, Sativex, used to treat muscle stiffness in multiple sclerosis, is not currently subsidised by the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. This means patients pay the full cost, which ranges between A$700 and $800 for a 6–8 week supply.



    Read more:
    We looked at 54 medicinal cannabis websites to see if they followed the rules. Here’s what we found

    What needs to change?

    Australia’s medicinal cannabis system is based on a fragmented evidence base and a fast-growing market operating with limited visibility into how products are used or evaluated. Addressing these challenges will require coordinated reform across multiple fronts.

    1. Capture real-world data

    Most urgently, we need robust, real-world data. To deliver safe and equitable care, we must know how medicinal cannabis is being prescribed, for what conditions, under what circumstances, and with what outcomes.

    Without this, we cannot answer the most basic questions about clinical benefits or track adverse events.

    Real-world data, such as de-identified health information from clinics, could help inform better clinical and policy decisions.

    2. Build a national accreditation model

    Australia needs a national prescriber accreditation model for medicinal cannabis, developed in collaboration with clinicians, regulators and professional bodies.

    Such a model would help ensure prescribing is clinically appropriate, evidence-informed, and consistent with evolving standards of care. In practice, this would mean health professionals would need to complete specific training before prescribing medicinal cannabis.

    This approach is not without precedent. For example, some health professionals must undergo immuniser accreditation before they can administer vaccines independently.

    3. Tackle inequity

    Finally, we must confront persistent access inequities. That includes exploring government subsidies for TGA-approved medicinal cannabis products. No one should have to choose between financial hardship and safe access.

    Dr Christine Hallinan, Senior Reseach Fellow, conducted research on the pharmacovigilance of medicinal cannabis at the University of Melbourne as part of the Pharmacovigilance theme within the Australian Centre for Cannabinoid Clinical and Research Excellence (ACRE), which was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) through the Centre of Research Excellence (CRE) scheme. She served as an Associate Investigator on ACRE from 2017 to 2023. Christine Hallinan is also a member of an Expert Roundtable on medicinal cannabis, chaired by Ian Freckelton AO KC and facilitated by Montu. The Roundtable brings together experts from medicine, law, research, and policy to contribute recommendations for a more evidence-based and fit-for-purpose regulatory framework. These roles are disclosed in the interest of transparency and do not influence the content or conclusions of this work.

    – ref. Confusing for doctors, inequitable for patients: why Australia’s medicinal cannabis system needs urgent reform – https://theconversation.com/confusing-for-doctors-inequitable-for-patients-why-australias-medicinal-cannabis-system-needs-urgent-reform-257249

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Author condemns ‘callous’ health legacy of French, US nuclear bomb tests in Pacific

    Asia Pacific Report

    A journalist who was on the Rainbow Warrior voyage to Rongelap last night condemned France for its “callous” attack of an environmental ship, saying “we haven’t forgotten, or forgiven this outrage”.

    David Robie, the author of Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior, said at the launch that the consequences of almost 300 US and French nuclear tests – many of them “dirty bombs” — were still impacting on indigenous Pacific peoples 40 years after the bombing of the ship.

    French saboteurs had killed “our shipmate Fernando Pereira” on 10 July 1985 in what the New Zealand prime minister at the time, David Lange, called a “sordid act of international state-backed terrorism”.

    Although relations with France had perhaps mellowed over time, four decades ago there was a lot of hostility towards the country, Dr Robie said.

    “And that act of mindless sabotage still rankles very deeply in our psyche,” he said at the launch in Auckland Central’s Ellen Melville Centre on the anniversary of July 10.

    About 100 people gathered in the centre’s Pioneer Women’s Hall for the book launch as Dr Robie reflected on the case of state terrorism after Greenpeace earlier in the day held a memorial ceremony on board Rainbow Warrior III.

    “One of the celebrated French newspapers, Le Monde, played a critical role in the investigation into the Rainbow Warrior affair — what I brand as ‘Blundergate’, in view of all the follies of the bumbling DGSE spy team,” he said.

    Plantu cartoon
    “And one of the cartoons in that newspaper, by Plantu, who is a sort of French equivalent to Michael Leunig, caught my eye.

    “You will notice it in the background slide show behind me. It shows François Mitterrand, the president of the French republic at the time, dressed in a frogman’s wetsuit lecturing to school children during a history lesson.

    “President Mitterrand says, in French, ‘At that time, only presidents had the right to carry out terrorism!’

    Tahitian advocate Ena Manurevia . . . the background Plantu cartoon is the one mentioned by the author. Image: Asia Pacific Report

    He noticed that in the Mitterrand cartoon there was a “classmate” sitting in the back of the room with a moustache. This was none other than Edwy Plenel, the police reporter for Le Monde at the time, who scooped the world with hard evidence of Mitterrand and the French government’s role at the highest level in the Rainbow Warrior sabotage.

    Dr Robie said that Plenel now published the investigative website Mediapart, which had played a key role in 2015 revealing the identity of the bomber that night, “the man who had planted the limpet mines on the Rainbow Warrior — sinking a peace and environmental ship, and killing Fernando Pereira.”

    Jean-Luc Kister, a retired French colonel and DGSE secret agent, had confessed to his role and “apologised”, claiming the sabotage operation was “disproportionate and a mistake”.

    “Was he sincere? Was it a genuine attempt to come to terms with his conscience. Who knows?” Dr Robie said, adding that he was unconvinced.

    Hilari Anderson (right on stage), one of the speakers, with Del Abcede and MC Antony Phillips (obscured) . . . the background image shows Helen Clark meeting Fernando Pereira’s daughter Marelle in 2005. Image: Greenpeace

    French perspective
    Dr Robie said he had asked Plenel for his reflections from a French perspective 40 years on. Plenel cited three main take ways.

    “First, the vital necessity of independent journalism. Independent of all powers, whether state, economic or ideological. Journalism that serves the public interest, the right to know, and factual truths.

    “Impactful journalism whose revelations restore confidence in democracy, in the possibility of improving it, and in the usefulness of counterbalancing powers, particularly journalism.”

    Secondly, this attack had been carried out by France in an “allied country”, New Zealand, against a civil society organisation. This demonstrated that “the thirst for power is a downfall that leads nations astray when they succumb to it.

    “Nuclear weapons epitomise this madness, this catastrophe of power.”

    Finally, Plenel expressed the “infinite sadness” for a French citizen that after his revelations in Le Monde — which led to the resignations of the defence minister and the head of the secret services — nothing else happened.

    “Nothing at all. No parliamentary inquiry, no questioning of François Mitterrand about his responsibility, no institutional reform of the absolute power of the president in a French republic that is, in reality, an elective monarchy.”

    ‘Elective monarchy’ trend
    Dr Robie compared the French outcome with the rapid trend in US today, “a president who thinks he is a monarch, a king – another elective monarchy.”

    He also bemoaned that “catastrophe of power” that “reigns everywhere today – from the horrendous Israeli genocide in Gaza to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, from Trump to Putin to Netanyahu, and so many others.”

    The continuous Gaza massacres were a shameful indictment of the West that had allowed it to happen for more than 21 months.

    Dr Robie thanked many collaborators for their help and support, including drama teacher Hilari Anderson, an original crew member of the Rainbow Warrior, and photographer John Miller, “who have been with me all the way on this waka journey”.

    He thanked his wife, Del, and family members for their unstinting “patience and support”, and also publisher Tony Murrow of Little Island Press.

    Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior . . . published 10 July 2025. Image: David Robie/Little Island Press

    Launching the book, Greenpeace Aotearoa programme director Niamh O’Flynn said one thing that had stood out for her was how the legacy of the Rainbow Warrior had continued despite the attempt by the French government to shut it down 40 years ago.

    “We said then that ‘you can’t sink a rainbow’, and we went on to prove it.

    “When the Rainbow Warrior was bombed in Auckland harbour, it was getting ready to set sail to Moruroa Atoll, to enter the test exclusion zone and confront French nuclear testing head-on.”

    So threatened
    The French government had felt so threatened by that action that it had engaged in a state-sanctioned terror attack to prevent the mission from going ahead.

    “But we rebuilt, and the Rainbow Warrior II carried on with that mission, travelling to Moruroa three times before the French finally stopped nuclear testing in the Pacific.

    “That spirit and tenacity is what makes Greenpeace and what makes the Rainbow Warrior so special to everyone who has sailed on her,” she said.

    “It was the final voyage of the Rainbow Warrior to Rongelap before the bombing that is the focus of David Robie’s book, and in many ways, it was an incredibly unique experience for Greenpeace — not just here in Aotearoa, but internationally.

    “And of course David was a key part in that.”

    O’Flynn said that as someone who had not even been born yet when the Rainbow Warrior was bombed, “I am so grateful that the generation of nuclear-free activists took the time to pass on their knowledge and to build our organisation into what it is today.

    “Just as David has by writing down his story and leaving us with such a rich legacy.”

    Greenpeace Aotearoa programme director Niamh O’Flynn . . . “That spirit and tenacity is what makes Greenpeace and what makes the Rainbow Warrior so special to everyone who has sailed on her.” Image: APR

    Other speakers
    Among other speakers at the book launch were teacher Hilari Anderson, publisher Tony Murrow of Little Island Press, Ena Manuireva, a Mangarevian scholar and cultural adviser, and MC Antony Phillips of Heritage New Zealand Pouhere Taonga.

    Anderson spoke of the Warrior’s early campaigns and acknowledged the crews of 1978 and 1985.

    “I have been reflecting what these first and last crews of the original Rainbow Warrior had in common, realising that both gave their collective, mostly youthful energy — to transformation.

    “This has involved the bonding of crews by working hands-on together. Touching surfaces, by hammer and paint, created a physical connection to this beloved boat.”

    She paid special tribute to two powerful women, Denise Bell, who tracked down the marine research vessel in Aberdeen that became the Rainbow Warrior, and the indomitable Susi Newborn, who “contributed to naming the ship and mustering a crew”.

    Manuireva spoke about his nuclear colonial experience and that of his family as natives of Mangareva atoll, about 400 km from Muroroa atoll, where France conducted most of its 30 years of tests ending in 1995.

    He also spoke of Tahitian leader Oscar Temaru’s pioneering role in the Nuclear-Free and Independent Pacific (NFIP) movement, and played haunting Tahitian songs on his guitar.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Author condemns ‘callous’ health legacy of French, US nuclear bomb tests in Pacific

    Asia Pacific Report

    A journalist who was on the Rainbow Warrior voyage to Rongelap last night condemned France for its “callous” attack of an environmental ship, saying “we haven’t forgotten, or forgiven this outrage”.

    David Robie, the author of Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior, said at the launch that the consequences of almost 300 US and French nuclear tests – many of them “dirty bombs” — were still impacting on indigenous Pacific peoples 40 years after the bombing of the ship.

    French saboteurs had killed “our shipmate Fernando Pereira” on 10 July 1985 in what the New Zealand prime minister at the time, David Lange, called a “sordid act of international state-backed terrorism”.

    Although relations with France had perhaps mellowed over time, four decades ago there was a lot of hostility towards the country, Dr Robie said.

    “And that act of mindless sabotage still rankles very deeply in our psyche,” he said at the launch in Auckland Central’s Ellen Melville Centre on the anniversary of July 10.

    About 100 people gathered in the centre’s Pioneer Women’s Hall for the book launch as Dr Robie reflected on the case of state terrorism after Greenpeace earlier in the day held a memorial ceremony on board Rainbow Warrior III.

    “One of the celebrated French newspapers, Le Monde, played a critical role in the investigation into the Rainbow Warrior affair — what I brand as ‘Blundergate’, in view of all the follies of the bumbling DGSE spy team,” he said.

    Plantu cartoon
    “And one of the cartoons in that newspaper, by Plantu, who is a sort of French equivalent to Michael Leunig, caught my eye.

    “You will notice it in the background slide show behind me. It shows François Mitterrand, the president of the French republic at the time, dressed in a frogman’s wetsuit lecturing to school children during a history lesson.

    “President Mitterrand says, in French, ‘At that time, only presidents had the right to carry out terrorism!’

    Tahitian advocate Ena Manurevia . . . the background Plantu cartoon is the one mentioned by the author. Image: Asia Pacific Report

    He noticed that in the Mitterrand cartoon there was a “classmate” sitting in the back of the room with a moustache. This was none other than Edwy Plenel, the police reporter for Le Monde at the time, who scooped the world with hard evidence of Mitterrand and the French government’s role at the highest level in the Rainbow Warrior sabotage.

    Dr Robie said that Plenel now published the investigative website Mediapart, which had played a key role in 2015 revealing the identity of the bomber that night, “the man who had planted the limpet mines on the Rainbow Warrior — sinking a peace and environmental ship, and killing Fernando Pereira.”

    Jean-Luc Kister, a retired French colonel and DGSE secret agent, had confessed to his role and “apologised”, claiming the sabotage operation was “disproportionate and a mistake”.

    “Was he sincere? Was it a genuine attempt to come to terms with his conscience. Who knows?” Dr Robie said, adding that he was unconvinced.

    Hilari Anderson (right on stage), one of the speakers, with Del Abcede and MC Antony Phillips (obscured) . . . the background image shows Helen Clark meeting Fernando Pereira’s daughter Marelle in 2005. Image: Greenpeace

    French perspective
    Dr Robie said he had asked Plenel for his reflections from a French perspective 40 years on. Plenel cited three main take ways.

    “First, the vital necessity of independent journalism. Independent of all powers, whether state, economic or ideological. Journalism that serves the public interest, the right to know, and factual truths.

    “Impactful journalism whose revelations restore confidence in democracy, in the possibility of improving it, and in the usefulness of counterbalancing powers, particularly journalism.”

    Secondly, this attack had been carried out by France in an “allied country”, New Zealand, against a civil society organisation. This demonstrated that “the thirst for power is a downfall that leads nations astray when they succumb to it.

    “Nuclear weapons epitomise this madness, this catastrophe of power.”

    Finally, Plenel expressed the “infinite sadness” for a French citizen that after his revelations in Le Monde — which led to the resignations of the defence minister and the head of the secret services — nothing else happened.

    “Nothing at all. No parliamentary inquiry, no questioning of François Mitterrand about his responsibility, no institutional reform of the absolute power of the president in a French republic that is, in reality, an elective monarchy.”

    ‘Elective monarchy’ trend
    Dr Robie compared the French outcome with the rapid trend in US today, “a president who thinks he is a monarch, a king – another elective monarchy.”

    He also bemoaned that “catastrophe of power” that “reigns everywhere today – from the horrendous Israeli genocide in Gaza to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, from Trump to Putin to Netanyahu, and so many others.”

    The continuous Gaza massacres were a shameful indictment of the West that had allowed it to happen for more than 21 months.

    Dr Robie thanked many collaborators for their help and support, including drama teacher Hilari Anderson, an original crew member of the Rainbow Warrior, and photographer John Miller, “who have been with me all the way on this waka journey”.

    He thanked his wife, Del, and family members for their unstinting “patience and support”, and also publisher Tony Murrow of Little Island Press.

    Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior . . . published 10 July 2025. Image: David Robie/Little Island Press

    Launching the book, Greenpeace Aotearoa programme director Niamh O’Flynn said one thing that had stood out for her was how the legacy of the Rainbow Warrior had continued despite the attempt by the French government to shut it down 40 years ago.

    “We said then that ‘you can’t sink a rainbow’, and we went on to prove it.

    “When the Rainbow Warrior was bombed in Auckland harbour, it was getting ready to set sail to Moruroa Atoll, to enter the test exclusion zone and confront French nuclear testing head-on.”

    So threatened
    The French government had felt so threatened by that action that it had engaged in a state-sanctioned terror attack to prevent the mission from going ahead.

    “But we rebuilt, and the Rainbow Warrior II carried on with that mission, travelling to Moruroa three times before the French finally stopped nuclear testing in the Pacific.

    “That spirit and tenacity is what makes Greenpeace and what makes the Rainbow Warrior so special to everyone who has sailed on her,” she said.

    “It was the final voyage of the Rainbow Warrior to Rongelap before the bombing that is the focus of David Robie’s book, and in many ways, it was an incredibly unique experience for Greenpeace — not just here in Aotearoa, but internationally.

    “And of course David was a key part in that.”

    O’Flynn said that as someone who had not even been born yet when the Rainbow Warrior was bombed, “I am so grateful that the generation of nuclear-free activists took the time to pass on their knowledge and to build our organisation into what it is today.

    “Just as David has by writing down his story and leaving us with such a rich legacy.”

    Greenpeace Aotearoa programme director Niamh O’Flynn . . . “That spirit and tenacity is what makes Greenpeace and what makes the Rainbow Warrior so special to everyone who has sailed on her.” Image: APR

    Other speakers
    Among other speakers at the book launch were teacher Hilari Anderson, publisher Tony Murrow of Little Island Press, Ena Manuireva, a Mangarevian scholar and cultural adviser, and MC Antony Phillips of Heritage New Zealand Pouhere Taonga.

    Anderson spoke of the Warrior’s early campaigns and acknowledged the crews of 1978 and 1985.

    “I have been reflecting what these first and last crews of the original Rainbow Warrior had in common, realising that both gave their collective, mostly youthful energy — to transformation.

    “This has involved the bonding of crews by working hands-on together. Touching surfaces, by hammer and paint, created a physical connection to this beloved boat.”

    She paid special tribute to two powerful women, Denise Bell, who tracked down the marine research vessel in Aberdeen that became the Rainbow Warrior, and the indomitable Susi Newborn, who “contributed to naming the ship and mustering a crew”.

    Manuireva spoke about his nuclear colonial experience and that of his family as natives of Mangareva atoll, about 400 km from Muroroa atoll, where France conducted most of its 30 years of tests ending in 1995.

    He also spoke of Tahitian leader Oscar Temaru’s pioneering role in the Nuclear-Free and Independent Pacific (NFIP) movement, and played haunting Tahitian songs on his guitar.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How do you stop an AI model turning Nazi? What the Grok drama reveals about AI training

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aaron J. Snoswell, Senior Research Fellow in AI Accountability, Queensland University of Technology

    Anne Fehres and Luke Conroy & AI4Media, CC BY

    Grok, the artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot embedded in X (formerly Twitter) and built by Elon Musk’s company xAI, is back in the headlines after calling itself “MechaHitler” and producing pro-Nazi remarks.

    The developers have apologised for the “inappropriate posts” and “taken action to ban hate speech” from Grok’s posts on X. Debates about AI bias have been revived too.

    But the latest Grok controversy is revealing not for the extremist outputs, but for how it exposes a fundamental dishonesty in AI development. Musk claims to be building a “truth-seeking” AI free from bias, yet the technical implementation reveals systemic ideological programming.

    This amounts to an accidental case study in how AI systems embed their creators’ values, with Musk’s unfiltered public presence making visible what other companies typically obscure.

    What is Grok?

    Grok is an AI chatbot with “a twist of humor and a dash of rebellion” developed by xAI, which also owns the X social media platform.

    The first version of Grok launched in 2023. Independent evaluations suggest the latest model, Grok 4, outpaces competitors on “intelligence” tests. The chatbot is available standalone and on X.

    xAI states “AI’s knowledge should be all-encompassing and as far-reaching as possible”. Musk has previously positioned Grok as a truth-telling alternative to chatbots accused of being “woke” by right-wing commentators.

    But beyond the latest Nazism scandal, Grok has made headlines for generating threats of sexual violence, bringing up “white genocide” in South Africa, and making insulting statements about politicians. The latter led to its ban in Turkey.

    So how do developers imbue an AI with such values and shape chatbot behaviour? Today’s chatbots are built using large language models (LLMs), which offer several levers developers can lean on.

    What makes an AI ‘behave’ this way?

    Pre-training

    First, developers curate the data used during pre-training – the first step in building a chatbot. This involves not just filtering unwanted content, but also emphasising desired material.

    GPT-3 was shown Wikipedia up to six times more than other datasets as OpenAI considered it higher quality. Grok is trained on various sources, including posts from X, which might explain why Grok has been reported to check Elon Musk’s opinion on controversial topics.

    Musk has shared that xAI curates Grok’s training data, for example to improve legal knowledge and to remove LLM-generated content for quality control. He also appealed to the X community for difficult “galaxy brain” problems and facts that are “politically incorrect, but nonetheless factually true”.

    We don’t know if these data were used, or what quality-control measures were applied.

    Fine-tuning

    The second step, fine-tuning, adjusts LLM behaviour using feedback. Developers create detailed manuals outlining their preferred ethical stances, which either human reviewers or AI systems then use as a rubric to evaluate and improve the chatbot’s responses, effectively coding these values into the machine.

    A Business Insider investigation revealed xAI’s instructions to human
    “AI tutors” instructed them to look for “woke ideology” and “cancel culture”. While the onboarding documents said Grok shouldn’t “impose an opinion that confirms or denies a user’s bias”, they also stated it should avoid responses that claim both sides of a debate have merit when they do not.

    System prompts

    The system prompt – instructions provided before every conversation – guides behaviour once the model is deployed.

    To its credit, xAI publishes Grok’s system prompts. Its instructions to “assume subjective viewpoints sourced from the media are biased” and “not shy away from making claims which are politically incorrect, as long as they are well substantiated” were likely key factors in the latest controversy.

    These prompts are being updated daily at the time of writing, and their evolution is a fascinating case study in itself.

    Guardrails

    Finally, developers can also add guardrails – filters that block certain requests or responses. OpenAI claims it doesn’t permit ChatGPT “to generate hateful, harassing, violent or adult content”. Meanwhile, the Chinese model DeepSeek censors discussion of Tianamen Square.

    Ad-hoc testing when writing this article suggests Grok is much less restrained in this regard than competitor products.

    The transparency paradox

    Grok’s Nazi controversy highlights a deeper ethical issue: would we prefer AI companies to be explicitly ideological and honest about it, or maintain the fiction of neutrality while secretly embedding their values?

    Every major AI system reflects its creator’s worldview – from Microsoft Copilot’s risk-averse corporate perspective to Anthropic Claude’s safety-focused ethos. The difference is transparency.

    Musk’s public statements make it easy to trace Grok’s behaviours back to Musk’s stated beliefs about “woke ideology” and media bias. Meanwhile, when other platforms misfire spectacularly, we’re left guessing whether this reflects leadership views, corporate risk aversion, regulatory pressure, or accident.

    This feels familiar. Grok resembles Microsoft’s 2016 hate-speech-spouting Tay chatbot, also trained on Twitter data and set loose on Twitter before being shut down.

    But there’s a crucial difference. Tay’s racism emerged from user manipulation and poor safeguards – an unintended consequence. Grok’s behaviour appears to stem at least partially from its design.

    The real lesson from Grok is about honesty in AI development. As these systems become more powerful and widespread (Grok support in Tesla vehicles was just announced), the question isn’t whether AI will reflect human values. It’s whether companies will be transparent about whose values they’re encoding and why.

    Musk’s approach is simultaneously more honest (we can see his influence) and more deceptive (claiming objectivity while programming subjectivity) than his competitors.

    In an industry built on the myth of neutral algorithms, Grok reveals what’s been true all along: there’s no such thing as unbiased AI – only AI whose biases we can see with varying degrees of clarity.

    Aaron J. Snoswell previously received research funding from OpenAI in 2024–2025 to develop new evaluation frameworks for measuring moral competence in AI agents.

    – ref. How do you stop an AI model turning Nazi? What the Grok drama reveals about AI training – https://theconversation.com/how-do-you-stop-an-ai-model-turning-nazi-what-the-grok-drama-reveals-about-ai-training-261001

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How do you stop an AI model turning Nazi? What the Grok drama reveals about AI training

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aaron J. Snoswell, Senior Research Fellow in AI Accountability, Queensland University of Technology

    Anne Fehres and Luke Conroy & AI4Media, CC BY

    Grok, the artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot embedded in X (formerly Twitter) and built by Elon Musk’s company xAI, is back in the headlines after calling itself “MechaHitler” and producing pro-Nazi remarks.

    The developers have apologised for the “inappropriate posts” and “taken action to ban hate speech” from Grok’s posts on X. Debates about AI bias have been revived too.

    But the latest Grok controversy is revealing not for the extremist outputs, but for how it exposes a fundamental dishonesty in AI development. Musk claims to be building a “truth-seeking” AI free from bias, yet the technical implementation reveals systemic ideological programming.

    This amounts to an accidental case study in how AI systems embed their creators’ values, with Musk’s unfiltered public presence making visible what other companies typically obscure.

    What is Grok?

    Grok is an AI chatbot with “a twist of humor and a dash of rebellion” developed by xAI, which also owns the X social media platform.

    The first version of Grok launched in 2023. Independent evaluations suggest the latest model, Grok 4, outpaces competitors on “intelligence” tests. The chatbot is available standalone and on X.

    xAI states “AI’s knowledge should be all-encompassing and as far-reaching as possible”. Musk has previously positioned Grok as a truth-telling alternative to chatbots accused of being “woke” by right-wing commentators.

    But beyond the latest Nazism scandal, Grok has made headlines for generating threats of sexual violence, bringing up “white genocide” in South Africa, and making insulting statements about politicians. The latter led to its ban in Turkey.

    So how do developers imbue an AI with such values and shape chatbot behaviour? Today’s chatbots are built using large language models (LLMs), which offer several levers developers can lean on.

    What makes an AI ‘behave’ this way?

    Pre-training

    First, developers curate the data used during pre-training – the first step in building a chatbot. This involves not just filtering unwanted content, but also emphasising desired material.

    GPT-3 was shown Wikipedia up to six times more than other datasets as OpenAI considered it higher quality. Grok is trained on various sources, including posts from X, which might explain why Grok has been reported to check Elon Musk’s opinion on controversial topics.

    Musk has shared that xAI curates Grok’s training data, for example to improve legal knowledge and to remove LLM-generated content for quality control. He also appealed to the X community for difficult “galaxy brain” problems and facts that are “politically incorrect, but nonetheless factually true”.

    We don’t know if these data were used, or what quality-control measures were applied.

    Fine-tuning

    The second step, fine-tuning, adjusts LLM behaviour using feedback. Developers create detailed manuals outlining their preferred ethical stances, which either human reviewers or AI systems then use as a rubric to evaluate and improve the chatbot’s responses, effectively coding these values into the machine.

    A Business Insider investigation revealed xAI’s instructions to human
    “AI tutors” instructed them to look for “woke ideology” and “cancel culture”. While the onboarding documents said Grok shouldn’t “impose an opinion that confirms or denies a user’s bias”, they also stated it should avoid responses that claim both sides of a debate have merit when they do not.

    System prompts

    The system prompt – instructions provided before every conversation – guides behaviour once the model is deployed.

    To its credit, xAI publishes Grok’s system prompts. Its instructions to “assume subjective viewpoints sourced from the media are biased” and “not shy away from making claims which are politically incorrect, as long as they are well substantiated” were likely key factors in the latest controversy.

    These prompts are being updated daily at the time of writing, and their evolution is a fascinating case study in itself.

    Guardrails

    Finally, developers can also add guardrails – filters that block certain requests or responses. OpenAI claims it doesn’t permit ChatGPT “to generate hateful, harassing, violent or adult content”. Meanwhile, the Chinese model DeepSeek censors discussion of Tianamen Square.

    Ad-hoc testing when writing this article suggests Grok is much less restrained in this regard than competitor products.

    The transparency paradox

    Grok’s Nazi controversy highlights a deeper ethical issue: would we prefer AI companies to be explicitly ideological and honest about it, or maintain the fiction of neutrality while secretly embedding their values?

    Every major AI system reflects its creator’s worldview – from Microsoft Copilot’s risk-averse corporate perspective to Anthropic Claude’s safety-focused ethos. The difference is transparency.

    Musk’s public statements make it easy to trace Grok’s behaviours back to Musk’s stated beliefs about “woke ideology” and media bias. Meanwhile, when other platforms misfire spectacularly, we’re left guessing whether this reflects leadership views, corporate risk aversion, regulatory pressure, or accident.

    This feels familiar. Grok resembles Microsoft’s 2016 hate-speech-spouting Tay chatbot, also trained on Twitter data and set loose on Twitter before being shut down.

    But there’s a crucial difference. Tay’s racism emerged from user manipulation and poor safeguards – an unintended consequence. Grok’s behaviour appears to stem at least partially from its design.

    The real lesson from Grok is about honesty in AI development. As these systems become more powerful and widespread (Grok support in Tesla vehicles was just announced), the question isn’t whether AI will reflect human values. It’s whether companies will be transparent about whose values they’re encoding and why.

    Musk’s approach is simultaneously more honest (we can see his influence) and more deceptive (claiming objectivity while programming subjectivity) than his competitors.

    In an industry built on the myth of neutral algorithms, Grok reveals what’s been true all along: there’s no such thing as unbiased AI – only AI whose biases we can see with varying degrees of clarity.

    Aaron J. Snoswell previously received research funding from OpenAI in 2024–2025 to develop new evaluation frameworks for measuring moral competence in AI agents.

    – ref. How do you stop an AI model turning Nazi? What the Grok drama reveals about AI training – https://theconversation.com/how-do-you-stop-an-ai-model-turning-nazi-what-the-grok-drama-reveals-about-ai-training-261001

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: How do you stop an AI model turning Nazi? What the Grok drama reveals about AI training

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Aaron J. Snoswell, Senior Research Fellow in AI Accountability, Queensland University of Technology

    Anne Fehres and Luke Conroy & AI4Media, CC BY

    Grok, the artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot embedded in X (formerly Twitter) and built by Elon Musk’s company xAI, is back in the headlines after calling itself “MechaHitler” and producing pro-Nazi remarks.

    The developers have apologised for the “inappropriate posts” and “taken action to ban hate speech” from Grok’s posts on X. Debates about AI bias have been revived too.

    But the latest Grok controversy is revealing not for the extremist outputs, but for how it exposes a fundamental dishonesty in AI development. Musk claims to be building a “truth-seeking” AI free from bias, yet the technical implementation reveals systemic ideological programming.

    This amounts to an accidental case study in how AI systems embed their creators’ values, with Musk’s unfiltered public presence making visible what other companies typically obscure.

    What is Grok?

    Grok is an AI chatbot with “a twist of humor and a dash of rebellion” developed by xAI, which also owns the X social media platform.

    The first version of Grok launched in 2023. Independent evaluations suggest the latest model, Grok 4, outpaces competitors on “intelligence” tests. The chatbot is available standalone and on X.

    xAI states “AI’s knowledge should be all-encompassing and as far-reaching as possible”. Musk has previously positioned Grok as a truth-telling alternative to chatbots accused of being “woke” by right-wing commentators.

    But beyond the latest Nazism scandal, Grok has made headlines for generating threats of sexual violence, bringing up “white genocide” in South Africa, and making insulting statements about politicians. The latter led to its ban in Turkey.

    So how do developers imbue an AI with such values and shape chatbot behaviour? Today’s chatbots are built using large language models (LLMs), which offer several levers developers can lean on.

    What makes an AI ‘behave’ this way?

    Pre-training

    First, developers curate the data used during pre-training – the first step in building a chatbot. This involves not just filtering unwanted content, but also emphasising desired material.

    GPT-3 was shown Wikipedia up to six times more than other datasets as OpenAI considered it higher quality. Grok is trained on various sources, including posts from X, which might explain why Grok has been reported to check Elon Musk’s opinion on controversial topics.

    Musk has shared that xAI curates Grok’s training data, for example to improve legal knowledge and to remove LLM-generated content for quality control. He also appealed to the X community for difficult “galaxy brain” problems and facts that are “politically incorrect, but nonetheless factually true”.

    We don’t know if these data were used, or what quality-control measures were applied.

    Fine-tuning

    The second step, fine-tuning, adjusts LLM behaviour using feedback. Developers create detailed manuals outlining their preferred ethical stances, which either human reviewers or AI systems then use as a rubric to evaluate and improve the chatbot’s responses, effectively coding these values into the machine.

    A Business Insider investigation revealed xAI’s instructions to human
    “AI tutors” instructed them to look for “woke ideology” and “cancel culture”. While the onboarding documents said Grok shouldn’t “impose an opinion that confirms or denies a user’s bias”, they also stated it should avoid responses that claim both sides of a debate have merit when they do not.

    System prompts

    The system prompt – instructions provided before every conversation – guides behaviour once the model is deployed.

    To its credit, xAI publishes Grok’s system prompts. Its instructions to “assume subjective viewpoints sourced from the media are biased” and “not shy away from making claims which are politically incorrect, as long as they are well substantiated” were likely key factors in the latest controversy.

    These prompts are being updated daily at the time of writing, and their evolution is a fascinating case study in itself.

    Guardrails

    Finally, developers can also add guardrails – filters that block certain requests or responses. OpenAI claims it doesn’t permit ChatGPT “to generate hateful, harassing, violent or adult content”. Meanwhile, the Chinese model DeepSeek censors discussion of Tianamen Square.

    Ad-hoc testing when writing this article suggests Grok is much less restrained in this regard than competitor products.

    The transparency paradox

    Grok’s Nazi controversy highlights a deeper ethical issue: would we prefer AI companies to be explicitly ideological and honest about it, or maintain the fiction of neutrality while secretly embedding their values?

    Every major AI system reflects its creator’s worldview – from Microsoft Copilot’s risk-averse corporate perspective to Anthropic Claude’s safety-focused ethos. The difference is transparency.

    Musk’s public statements make it easy to trace Grok’s behaviours back to Musk’s stated beliefs about “woke ideology” and media bias. Meanwhile, when other platforms misfire spectacularly, we’re left guessing whether this reflects leadership views, corporate risk aversion, regulatory pressure, or accident.

    This feels familiar. Grok resembles Microsoft’s 2016 hate-speech-spouting Tay chatbot, also trained on Twitter data and set loose on Twitter before being shut down.

    But there’s a crucial difference. Tay’s racism emerged from user manipulation and poor safeguards – an unintended consequence. Grok’s behaviour appears to stem at least partially from its design.

    The real lesson from Grok is about honesty in AI development. As these systems become more powerful and widespread (Grok support in Tesla vehicles was just announced), the question isn’t whether AI will reflect human values. It’s whether companies will be transparent about whose values they’re encoding and why.

    Musk’s approach is simultaneously more honest (we can see his influence) and more deceptive (claiming objectivity while programming subjectivity) than his competitors.

    In an industry built on the myth of neutral algorithms, Grok reveals what’s been true all along: there’s no such thing as unbiased AI – only AI whose biases we can see with varying degrees of clarity.

    Aaron J. Snoswell previously received research funding from OpenAI in 2024–2025 to develop new evaluation frameworks for measuring moral competence in AI agents.

    – ref. How do you stop an AI model turning Nazi? What the Grok drama reveals about AI training – https://theconversation.com/how-do-you-stop-an-ai-model-turning-nazi-what-the-grok-drama-reveals-about-ai-training-261001

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Washington’s war demands – Australia right to refuse committing to a hypothetical conflict with China over Taiwan

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Blaxland, Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University

    Andy. LIU/Shutterstock

    The United States can count on Australia as one of its closest allies.

    Dating back to the shared experiences in the second world war and the ANZUS Treaty signed in 1951, Australia has steadfastly worked to help ensure the US remains the principal security guarantor in the Indo-Pacific.

    Australia’s track record speaks for itself. Yet additional demands are being placed that rankle.

    The Pentagon wants to know how Australia – and other allies such as Japan – would respond in the event of a war with China over Taiwan.

    Making these demands – which are being sought as part of the review of the AUKUS nuclear submarine agreement – is both unjustified and unreasonable.

    ‘100 years of mateship’

    Since federation in 1901, Australians have found themselves alongside US counterparts in almost all the major conflicts of the 20th century and beyond.

    It is this shared experience that led former Ambassador to Washington, Joe Hockey, to coin the term “100 years of mateship”.

    The pinnacle of the security relationship is the ANZUS Treaty which is a loosely worded document barely 800 words long.

    However, it is important to remember AUKUS is just that – a technical agreement, albeit premised on the century-spanning trusted collaboration across the full spectrum of national security ties.

    Goldilocks solution

    More recently, the US administration has made demands of allies, including Australia, the likes of which have not been seen in living memory.

    This spans not just tariffs, but also increased defence spending. American policymakers appear oblivious or unconcerned about the blowback they are generating.

    It is this context which makes the US demands for a broad-ranging and largely open-ended commitment over the defence of Taiwan, in advance of any conflict, so extraordinary and unhelpful.

    Under-secretary of defence for policy Elbridge Colby who wants a clear sense of how Australia would act in a potential war over Taiwan.
    Supplied by US Department of Defence, CC BY

    Australia has long had a fear of abandonment. Ever since the searing experience of the fall of Singapore in 1942, officials have been eager to burnish ties with US counterparts. Conversely, there has always been a strong element in the community that has feared entrapment in yet another US-led war in Asia.

    The experience in the Korean and Vietnam wars, let alone Afghanistan and Iraq, left many guarded about the efficacy of hitching the wagon to US-led military campaigns.

    In essence, though, Australian policymakers have long sought the Goldilocks solution: not too enthusiastic to trigger entrapment and not too lukewarm to trigger abandonment.

    No guarantees

    Now Australia, Japan and others face a surprising new push by American officials for a commitment to a hypothetical conflict, under open-ended circumstances.

    The irony is that American demands for a commitment fly in the face of the loosely worded ANZUS alliance – which stipulates an agreement to consult, but little more than that.

    The AUKUS agreement includes no such guarantees either. The overt and confronting nature of Washington’s demands means Prime Minister Anthony Albanese effectively has no option but to push back:

    We support the status quo when it comes to Taiwan. We don’t support any unilateral action […] we want peace and security in our region.

    Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy was adamant Australia would not be committing forces ahead of any “hypothetical” conflict:

    The decision to commit Australian troops to a conflict will be made by the government of the day, not in advance, but by the government of the day.

    A further irony is Australia, like Japan, is already hugely invested in its US military relationship, particularly through its military technology.

    The purchase of the F35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft, for instance, was meant to help enable the generation of interoperable forces, yet no such demand has been made when it comes to an advance commitment over their use in support of US ambitions.

    So why invoke AUKUS in such a way?

    Evidently, the way the US is trying to stand over Japan and Australia is harmful to its own interests. Such adversarial and unduly transactional behaviour could provoke a popular backlash in Australia and elsewhere.

    The government has rightly rebuffed the calls saying it would be up to the government of the day to make such a decision. It is likely this will not be well received by the Trump administration. The PM is right though, to say it’s hypothetical and not worthy of a public endorsement.

    Strategic ambiguity

    Yet a further irony is that this is mostly a moot point.

    The key benefit of alliance collaboration is already in place – and that relates to the efforts to deter China from ever acting on its desire to change the status quo in the first place.

    As former PM and now ambassador to Washington, Kevin Rudd explained in his book, The Avoidable War, geo-political disaster is still avoidable, particularly if the US and China can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through managed strategic competition.

    This strategic ambiguity is meant to complicate a potential adversary’s military planners and political decision makers’ thought processes over the advantages and disadvantages of going to war.

    China already knows a clash over Taiwan would mean US allies like Japan and Australia would find it virtually impossible to avoid being entangled. The strategic ambiguity can be maintained ad infinitum, so long as an outright invasion is averted.

    And the likelihood of conflict over Taiwan? I remain sanguine that conflict can be avoided.

    But to do so would involve clear and compelling messaging: both through diplomatic channels and through the demonstration of robust military capabilities that war would be too costly.

    John Blaxland received funding (2015–2018) from the US DoD Minerva Research Initiative.

    – ref. Washington’s war demands – Australia right to refuse committing to a hypothetical conflict with China over Taiwan – https://theconversation.com/washingtons-war-demands-australia-right-to-refuse-committing-to-a-hypothetical-conflict-with-china-over-taiwan-261076

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How much salt is OK in drinking water? Without limits, Australia’s health gap widens in remote and regional areas

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Juliette Crowther, Researcher in Food Policy, George Institute for Global Health

    Andrew Merry/Getty

    Most Australians consume far too much sodium, mostly in the form of salt (sodium chloride) in the food they eat.

    The National Health and Medical Research Council recommends no more than 2,000 milligrams of sodium a day, roughly one teaspoon of salt.

    Yet the average Australian consumes nearly twice that.

    In some regional and remote communities, salty drinking water is quietly adding to this problem – yet sodium levels in tap water are often overlooked.

    Our new research reviewed 197 countries and shows when drinking water standards for sodium exist, they’re usually based on taste, not health.

    Most follow guidance from the World Health Organization (WHO) which, in its global campaign to lower sodium intake, has focused on diet but largely ignored drinking water.

    Salty water is an overlooked health risk

    Excess sodium is a major risk factor for high blood pressure and cardiovascular diseases, such as heart attacks and stroke. These are leading causes of death and disability across the world.

    In 2013, these health risks led the WHO to set a global target to reduce sodium intake by 30% by 2025. The WHO has since extended this to 2030, due to slow progress.

    Public health efforts to reduce sodium (salt) have focused mainly on food, not drinking water. This is because most tap water contains low sodium levels (usually below 20mg per litre).

    But some natural water sources contain excessively high sodium. In Australia, this mainly affects remote and rural communities.

    Evidence suggests it’s a growing issue, compounded by climate change, rising sea levels, more frequent storms, prolonged droughts, and human activities, including over extraction of groundwater and agricultural runoff.

    What does the WHO say about water?

    The WHO’s recommended threshold for sodium in water – no more than 200mg/L – is based on how water tastes (palatability), not what is safe for health.

    Worryingly, the WHO recommendations about drinking water are based on an outdated 2003 report that found evidence linking sodium with high blood pressure was lacking.

    Convincing evidence has since confirmed that higher sodium intake is directly related to increased blood pressure.

    The WHO updated its dietary guidelines for sodium in 2012 to reflect these health risks. But water guidelines have not changed.

    What our new research shows

    Our new research, published in recent weeks, reviewed guidelines for sodium in drinking water in 197 countries.

    It found 20% of countries – home to 30% of the world’s population – have no sodium limit in drinking water.

    Among the 132 countries that do, most (92%) follow WHO guidelines.

    Our research found only 12 countries cited health reasons for setting sodium limits, and just two of these set stricter limits than WHO guidelines.

    This means across the world, most drinking standards for sodium continue to be guided by taste, not health.

    Palatability is highly subjective. Just as some people enjoy salty chips and others find them overpowering, sensitivity to sodium in water varies.

    In contrast, the health risks of too much salt are clear.

    What do Australia’s guidelines say?

    Australia’s drinking water guidelines include a non-mandatory sodium limit of 180mg/L, also based on taste.

    But this is still too high to protect health.

    Drinking two litres of water at this concentration in one day would mean having 360mg of sodium – almost one-fifth of the recommended maximum. This is equivalent to eating a large bag of sea-salt popcorn.

    While the guidelines do recommend that people with high blood pressure drink water with less than 20mg/L sodium, there is no clear plan for how this can be achieved equitably, especially when the alternative is expensive bottled water.

    Water inequity in Walgett

    The consequences of this policy gap are stark in places such as Walgett, a remote town in north-western New South Wales with a high Aboriginal population (almost 50%).

    In 2018, when the local river ran dry, the town switched to bore water. Residents immediately noticed the water was slimy and undrinkable.

    Local Aboriginal community controlled organisations asked researchers from the University of New South Wales to test the water. This revealed sodium levels over 300mg/L.

    In 2020, the New South Wales government eventually installed a desalination plant, but due to issues managing waste, it was decommissioned a few months later.

    Today, Walgett still lacks a long-term solution to provide drinking water with low levels of sodium.

    Water inequality is health inequality

    Walgett isn’t an isolated case. Many inland and remote towns, often with high Aboriginal populations, rely on rivers and bore water increasingly affected by drought and agricultural overuse.

    This inequity in access to safe drinking water worsens the health gap.

    Indigenous Australians already face higher rates of high blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease – all worsened by excess sodium.

    In places such as Walgett, where some people report spending as much as A$50 a week on bottled water, families are forced to choose between safe hydration and essentials such as food or medicine.

    Without mandatory health-based limits, these communities have no way to compel authorities to make their water safe.

    Safe drinking water is a human right

    In 2023, the European Union mandated legally binding drinking water standards in all member states.

    Although still based on the outdated 200mg/L taste threshold, this legal framework gives communities a basis to advocate for safer water – something Australia currently lacks.

    A sodium limit closer to the United States Environmental Protection Agency guideline of 30–60mg/L would better align with health advice.

    Without enforceable, health-based limits, Australia risks falling behind on its commitments to the sodium reduction targets and sustainable development goals set by the United Nations.

    No one should have to fight for safe drinking water. If we want to protect our most vulnerable communities, water policy must catch up with science and public health priorities.

    We would like to thank all of the authors of the paper, and the Yuwaya Ngarra-li, a community-led partnership between the Dharriwaa Elders Groups in Walgett and the University of New South Wales.

    This research was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council. The George Institute’s Food Policy Group is a World Health Organization Collaborating Centre on Population Salt Reduction. Juliette Crowther has no other conflicts of interest to declare.

    Jacqui Webster receives salary funding from a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Investigator Grant (#2018015) and DFAT. Jacqui Webster is Chief Investigator on the NHMRC Ideas grant (#2003862) that this research is funded through.

    – ref. How much salt is OK in drinking water? Without limits, Australia’s health gap widens in remote and regional areas – https://theconversation.com/how-much-salt-is-ok-in-drinking-water-without-limits-australias-health-gap-widens-in-remote-and-regional-areas-260496

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –