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Category: Analysis Assessment

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Even a day off alcohol makes a difference – our timeline maps the health benefits when you stop drinking

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Nicole Lee, Adjunct Professor at the National Drug Research Institute (Melbourne based), Curtin University

    d3sign/Getty

    Alcohol has many negative effects on our health, some of which may surprise you. These include short-term impacts such as waking up with a pounding head or anxiety, to long-term effects including cancer.

    If you are thinking about taking some time off alcohol, you’ll find many quick wins and long-term gains for your health.

    How long will you have to wait to feel the benefits?

    We’ve made a timeline – based on scientific research – that shows what you might feel in the first days, weeks, months and years after taking a break from alcohol.

    Some benefits start immediately, so every day without alcohol is a win for your health.

    After one day

    Alcohol takes around 24 hours to completely leave your body, so you may start noticing improvements after just one day.

    Alcohol makes you need to urinate more often, causing dehydration. But your body can absorb a glass of water almost immediately, so once alcohol is out of your system alcohol dehydration is reduced, improving digestion, brain function and energy levels.

    Alcohol also reduces the liver’s ability to regulate blood sugar. Once alcohol leaves the system, blood sugar begins to normalise.

    If you are a daily drinker you may feel a bit worse to start with while your body adjusts to not having alcohol in its system all the time. You may initially notice disrupted sleep, mood changes, sweating or tremors. Most symptoms usually resolve in about a week without alcohol.

    After one week

    Even though alcohol can make you feel sleepy at first, it disrupts your sleep cycle. By the end of an alcohol-free week, you may notice you are more energetic in the mornings as a result of getting better quality sleep.

    As the body’s filter, the liver does much of the heavy lifting in processing alcohol and can be easily damaged even with moderate drinking.

    The liver is important for cleaning blood, processing nutrients and producing bile that helps with digestion.

    But it can also regenerate quickly. If you have only mild damage in the liver, seven days may be enough to reduce liver fat and heal mild scarring and tissue damage.

    Even small amounts of alcohol can impair brain functioning. So quitting can help improve brain health within a few days in light to moderate drinkers and within a month even for very heavy dependent drinkers.

    Alcohol damages your liver, but it’s very good at regenerating and healing itself.
    skynesher/Getty

    After one month

    Alcohol can make managing mood harder and worsen symptoms of anxiety and depression. After a few weeks, most people start to feel better. Even very heavy drinkers report better mood after one to two months.

    As your sleep and mood improve you may also notice more energy and greater wellbeing.

    After a month of abstinence regular drinkers also report feeling more confident about making changes to how they drink.

    You may lose weight and body fat. Alcohol contains a lot of kilojules and can trigger hunger reward systems, making us overeat or choose less healthy foods when drinking.

    Even your skin will thank you. Alcohol can make you look older through dehydration and inflammation, which can be reversed when you quit.

    Alcohol irritates the gut and disrupts normal stomach functioning, causing bloating, indigestion, heartburn and diarrhoea. These symptoms usually start to resolve within four weeks.

    One month of abstinence, insulin resistance – which can lead to high blood sugar – significantly reduces by 25%. Blood pressure also reduces (by 6%) and cancer-related growth factors declines, lowering your risk of cancer.

    After six months

    The liver starts to repair within weeks. For moderate drinkers, damage to your liver could be fully reversed by six months.

    At this point, even heavy drinkers may notice they’re better at fighting infections and feel healthier overall.

    Just a month without alcohol can you make more confident about sticking to changes.
    Yue_/Getty

    After one year or more

    Alcohol contributes to or causes a large number of chronic diseases, including heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, and seven different types of cancer, as well as mental health issues. All of these risks can be reduced by quitting or cutting back on alcohol.

    Alcohol increases blood pressure. High blood pressure (hypertension) is the top risk factor for death in the world. A small 2mmHg increase in blood pressure above the normal range (120mmHG) increases death from stroke by 10% and from coronary artery disease by 7%.

    Cutting back on alcohol to less than two drinks a day can reduce blood pressure significantly, reducing risk of stroke and heart disease. Reducing blood pressure also reduces risk of kidney disease, eye problems and even erectile dysfunction.

    With sustained abstinence, your risk of getting any type of cancer drops. One study looked at cancer risk for more than 4 million adults over three to seven years and found the risk of alcohol-related cancer dropped by 4%, even for light drinkers who quit. Reducing from heavy to moderate drinking reduced alcohol-related cancer risk by 9%.

    Making a change

    Any reduction in drinking will have some noticeable and immediate benefits to your brain and general health. The less you drink and the longer you go between drinks, the healthier you will be.

    Whether you aim to cut back or quit entirely, there are some simple things you can do to help you stick with it:

    If you are still wondering about whether to make changes or not you can check your drinking risk here.

    If you have tried to cut back and found it difficult you may need professional help. Call the National Alcohol and other Drug Hotline on 1800 250 015 and they will put you in touch with services in your area that can help. You can also talk to your GP.

    We would like to thank Dr Hannah MacRae for assistance in identifying the research used in this article.

    Nicole Lee works as a paid evaluation and training consultant in alcohol and other drugs. She has previously been awarded grants by state and federal governments, NHMRC and other public funding bodies for alcohol and other drug research. She is CEO of Hello Sunday Morning.

    Dr Katinka van de Ven is the Research Manager of Hello Sunday Morning. She also works as a paid evaluation and training consultant in alcohol and other drugs. Katinka has previously been awarded grants by state governments and public funding bodies for alcohol and other drug research.

    – ref. Even a day off alcohol makes a difference – our timeline maps the health benefits when you stop drinking – https://theconversation.com/even-a-day-off-alcohol-makes-a-difference-our-timeline-maps-the-health-benefits-when-you-stop-drinking-249272

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Cycling can be 4 times more efficient than walking. A biomechanics expert explains why

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Anthony Blazevich, Professor of Biomechanics, Edith Cowan University

    You’re standing at your front door, facing a five kilometre commute to work. But you don’t have your car, and there’s no bus route. You can walk for an hour – or jump on your bicycle and arrive in 15 minutes, barely breaking a sweat. You choose the latter.

    Many people would make the same choice. It’s estimated that there are more than a billion bikes in the world. Cycling represents one of the most energy-efficient forms of transport ever invented, allowing humans to travel faster and farther while using less energy than walking or running.

    But why exactly does pedalling feel so much easier than pounding the pavement? The answer lies in the elegant biomechanics of how our bodies interact with this two-wheeled machine.

    A wonderfully simple machine

    At its heart, a bicycle is wonderfully simple: two wheels (hence “bi-cycle”), pedals that transfer power through a chain to the rear wheel, and gears that let us fine-tune our effort. But this simplicity masks an engineering that perfectly complements human physiology.

    When we walk or run, we essentially fall forward in a controlled manner, catching ourselves with each step. Our legs must swing through large arcs, lifting our heavy limbs against gravity with every stride. This swinging motion alone consumes a lot of energy. Imagine: how tiring would it be to even swing your arms continuously for an hour?

    On a bicycle, your legs move through a much smaller, circular motion. Instead of swinging your entire leg weight with each step, you’re simply rotating your thighs and calves through a compact pedalling cycle. The energy savings are immediately noticeable.

    But the real efficiency gains come from how bicycles transfer human power to forward motion. When you walk or run, each footstep involves a mini-collision with the ground. You can hear it as the slap of your shoe against the road, and you can feel it as vibrations running through your body. This is energy being lost, literally dissipated as sound and heat after being sent through your muscles and joints.

    Walking and running also involve another source of inefficiency: with each step, you actually brake yourself slightly before propelling forward. As your foot lands ahead of your body, it creates a backwards force that momentarily slows you down. Your muscles then have to work extra hard to overcome this self-imposed braking and accelerate you forward again.

    Kissing the road

    Bicycles use one of the world’s great inventions to solve these problems – wheels.

    Instead of a collision, you get rolling contact – each part of the tyre gently “kisses” the road surface before lifting off. No energy is lost to impact. And because the wheel rotates smoothly so the force acts perfectly vertically on the ground, there’s no stop-start braking action. The force from your pedalling translates directly into forward motion.

    But bicycles also help our muscles to work at their best. Human muscles have a fundamental limitation: the faster they contract, the weaker they become and the more energy they consume.

    This is the famous force-velocity relationship of muscles. And it’s why sprinting feels so much harder than jogging or walking – your muscles are working near their speed limit, becoming less efficient with every stride.

    Bicycle gears solve this problem for us. As you go faster, you can shift to a higher gear so your muscles don’t have to work faster while the bike accelerates. Your muscles can stay in their sweet spot for both force production and energy cost. It’s like having a personal assistant that continuously adjusts your workload to keep you in the peak performance zone.

    Cycling can be at least four times more energy-efficient than walking and eight times more efficient than running.
    The Conversation, CC BY

    Walking sometimes wins out

    But bicycles aren’t always superior.

    On very steep hills of more than about 15% gradient (so you rise 1.5 metres every 10 metres of distance), your legs struggle to generate enough force through the circular pedalling motion to lift you and the bike up the hill. We can produce more force by pushing our legs straight out, so walking (or climbing) becomes more effective.

    Even if roads were built, we wouldn’t pedal up Mount Everest.

    This isn’t the case for downhills. While cycling downhill becomes progressively easier (eventually requiring no energy at all), walking down steep slopes actually becomes harder.

    Once the gradient exceeds about 10% (it drops by one metre for every ten metres of distance), each downhill step creates jarring impacts that waste energy and stress your joints. Walking and running downhill isn’t always as easy as we’d expect.

    Not just a transportation device

    The numbers speak for themselves. Cycling can be at least four times more energy-efficient than walking and eight times more efficient than running. This efficiency comes from minimising three major energy drains: limb movement, ground impact and muscle speed limitations.

    So next time you effortlessly cruise past pedestrians on your morning bike commute, take a moment to appreciate the biomechanical work of art beneath you. Your bicycle isn’t just a transport device, but a perfectly evolved machine that works in partnership with your physiology, turning your raw muscle power into efficient motion.

    Anthony Blazevich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Cycling can be 4 times more efficient than walking. A biomechanics expert explains why – https://theconversation.com/cycling-can-be-4-times-more-efficient-than-walking-a-biomechanics-expert-explains-why-257120

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Can’t work out without music? Neither could the ancient Greeks and Romans

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Konstantine Panegyres, Lecturer in Classics and Ancient History, The University of Western Australia

    Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    These days when you see people exercising, they’re usually also listening to music, whether they’re at the gym, or out jogging on the street.

    It makes sense, as studies have shown listening to music can help you get the most out of a workout.

    Somehow the ancient Greeks and Romans knew this too, long before modern science was there to back it.

    A more than 2,000-year-old habit

    In his oration To the People of Alexandria, the Greek writer Dio Chrysostom (40-110 CE) complained about a phenomenon he saw all the time.

    Dio wrote people loved to listen to music in their daily activities. According to him, music could be found in the courtroom, in the lecture theatre, in the doctor’s room, and even in the gym.

    “Everything is done to music […] people will presently go so far as to use song to accompany their exercise in the gymnasium,” Dio wrote.

    But exercising to music wasn’t a new thing in his day. This practice has been recorded across the ancient Greek and Roman worlds from the earliest times, and as far back as the poems of Homer (circa 800 BCE).

    Why exercise to music?

    There are many depictions of professional athletes training, or competing, to the accompaniment of music in ancient Greek vase paintings.

    In one vase painting from the 5th century BCE, a group of athletes trains while a musician plays the aulos, a type of ancient pipe instrument.

    Young men exercising to the sound of an aulos player (an ancient wind instrument).
    Wikimedia

    The ancient writer Plutarch of Chaeronea (46-119 CE) tells us music was also played while people wrestled or did athletics.

    Athenian writer Flavius Philostratus (circa 170-245 CE) offers clues as to why. In a book about gymnastics, Philostratus wrote music served to stimulate athletes, and that their performance might be improved through listening to music.

    Today’s researchers have proven this to be true. One 2020 study involving 3,599 participants showed listening to music during exercise had many benefits, such as reducing the perception of fatigue and exertion, and improving physical performance and breathing.

    Singing and trumpets

    Since ancient people didn’t have electronic devices, they found other ways to exercise to music. Some had music played by a musician during their exercise routine. Others sang while they exercised.

    Singing while playing ball games was particularly popular. In Homer’s Odyssey (circa 8th century BCE), Nausicaa, the daughter of the King of Phaeacia, plays a ball game with her girl friends, and they all sing songs as they play.

    Similarly, the historian Carystius of Pergamum (2nd century BCE) wrote the women of his time “sang as they played ball”.

    Another popular activity was dancing to music. Dancing was widely regarded as a gymnastic exercise people could do for better health.

    One famous advocate of the benefits of dancing as exercise was the great Athenian philosopher Socrates (circa 470-399 BCE). According to the historian Diogenes Laertius (3rd century CE), “it was Socrates’ regular habit to dance, thinking that such exercise helped to keep the body in good condition”.

    Exercising to music was depicted in several ancient Greek vase painting.
    Wikimedia, CC BY-NC-SA

    Apart from individuals using music in their personal exercise, soldiers also did training exercises, and marched to battle, to the sound of trumpets.

    Don’t skip leg day

    There was a belief in ancient Greek and Roman that music and exercise played an important role in shaping and developing the body and soul.

    The ideal was harmony and moderation. The body and soul needed to be balanced and proportionate in all their parts, without any excess. As such, doing one kind of exercise too often, or exercising one body part excessively, was frowned upon.

    The physician Galen of Pergamum (129-216 CE) criticised types of exercise that focused too much on one part of the body. He preferred ball games as they exercised the whole body evenly.

    Immoderation in music – that is, listening to too much, or listening to music that was too emotional – was also sometimes frowned upon.

    For example, the Athenian philosopher Plato (circa 428-348 BCE) famously argued most music should be censored as it can stir the passions too strongly. Plato thought only simple and unemotional music, listened to in moderation, should be allowed.

    If the ancients could see today’s people running along the pavement with music thumping in their ears, they would surely be amazed. And they’d probably approve – as long as it wasn’t being done in excess.

    Konstantine Panegyres does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can’t work out without music? Neither could the ancient Greeks and Romans – https://theconversation.com/cant-work-out-without-music-neither-could-the-ancient-greeks-and-romans-258069

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for July 14, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on July 14, 2025.

    Washington’s war demands – Australia risks being dragged into a conflict with China over Taiwan
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Blaxland, Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University Andy. LIU/Shutterstock The United States can count on Australia as one of its closest allies. Dating back to the shared experiences in the second world war and the ANZUS Treaty signed in 1951, Australia has steadfastly

    Women played key roles in Syria’s revolution. Now they’ve been pushed to the margins
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kinda Alsamara, Lecturer in the School of Languages and Cultures, The University of Queensland The end of the oppressive Assad regime in Syria in late 2024 has been broadly welcomed on the global stage – underscored by the fact the United States and European Union have now

    Music is at the forefront of AI disruption, but NZ artists still have few protections
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dave Carter, Associate Professor, School of Music and Screen Arts, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University Getty Images Was the recent Velvet Sundown phenomenon a great music and media hoax, a sign of things to come, or just another example of what’s already happening ? In

    Cycling can be 4 times more efficient than walking. A biomechanics expert explains why
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Blazevich, Professor of Biomechanics, Edith Cowan University You’re standing at your front door, facing a five kilometre commute to work. But you don’t have your car, and there’s no bus route. You can walk for an hour – or jump on your bicycle and arrive in

    ‘You become a target’: research shows why many people who experience racism don’t report it
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mario Peucker, Associate Professor and Principal Research Fellow, Institute for Sustainable Industries and Liveable Cities, Victoria University The way racism manifests itself may have changed over time, but it remains a persistent problem in Australia. The 2024 Reconciliation Barometer found a significant increase in racism against First

    Even a day off alcohol makes a difference – our timeline maps the health benefits when you stop drinking
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicole Lee, Adjunct Professor at the National Drug Research Institute (Melbourne based), Curtin University d3sign/Getty Alcohol has many negative effects on our health, some of which may surprise you. These include short-term impacts such as waking up with a pounding head or anxiety, to long-term effects including

    What’s happened to Australia’s green hydrogen dream? Here are 5 reasons the industry has floundered
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Reeve, Program Director, Energy and Climate Change, Grattan Institute An official from German energy supplier Eon with Fortescue founder Andrew Forrest after inking a deal in 2022 to supply green hydrogen from Australia to Germany. Michael Kappeler/picture alliance via Getty Images As the world looks for

    Soaring house prices may be locking people into marriages, new research shows
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Whelan, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Sydney GAS-photo/Shutterstock House prices continued to rise across Australia in June, recent data shows. Nationally, prices have risen about 38% in the past five years. Higher housing prices are simply one contributor, albeit a very important one, to the

    Can’t work out without music? Neither could the ancient Greeks and Romans
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Konstantine Panegyres, Lecturer in Classics and Ancient History, The University of Western Australia Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA These days when you see people exercising, they’re usually also listening to music, whether they’re at the gym, or out jogging on the street. It makes sense, as studies have

    The Bradbury Group features Palestinian journalist Yousef Aljamal, Middle East report and political panel
    Asia Pacific Report In the new weekly political podcast, The Bradbury Group, last night presenter Martyn Bradbury talked with visiting Palestinian journalist Dr Yousef Aljamal. They assess the current situation in Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza and what New Zealand should be doing. As Bradbury, publisher of The Daily Blog, notes, “Fourth Estate public broadcasting

    Author David Robie tells of outrage over sinking of the Rainbow Warrior 40 years ago
    RNZ News Nights Tomorrow marks 40 years since the bombing and sinking of the Rainbow Warrior — a moment that changed the course of New Zealand’s history and reshaped how we saw ourselves on the world stage. Two French agents planted two explosives on the ship, then just before midnight, explosions ripped through the hull

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for July 14, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on July 14, 2025.

    Washington’s war demands – Australia risks being dragged into a conflict with China over Taiwan
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Blaxland, Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University Andy. LIU/Shutterstock The United States can count on Australia as one of its closest allies. Dating back to the shared experiences in the second world war and the ANZUS Treaty signed in 1951, Australia has steadfastly

    Women played key roles in Syria’s revolution. Now they’ve been pushed to the margins
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kinda Alsamara, Lecturer in the School of Languages and Cultures, The University of Queensland The end of the oppressive Assad regime in Syria in late 2024 has been broadly welcomed on the global stage – underscored by the fact the United States and European Union have now

    Music is at the forefront of AI disruption, but NZ artists still have few protections
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dave Carter, Associate Professor, School of Music and Screen Arts, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University Getty Images Was the recent Velvet Sundown phenomenon a great music and media hoax, a sign of things to come, or just another example of what’s already happening ? In

    Cycling can be 4 times more efficient than walking. A biomechanics expert explains why
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Blazevich, Professor of Biomechanics, Edith Cowan University You’re standing at your front door, facing a five kilometre commute to work. But you don’t have your car, and there’s no bus route. You can walk for an hour – or jump on your bicycle and arrive in

    ‘You become a target’: research shows why many people who experience racism don’t report it
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mario Peucker, Associate Professor and Principal Research Fellow, Institute for Sustainable Industries and Liveable Cities, Victoria University The way racism manifests itself may have changed over time, but it remains a persistent problem in Australia. The 2024 Reconciliation Barometer found a significant increase in racism against First

    Even a day off alcohol makes a difference – our timeline maps the health benefits when you stop drinking
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicole Lee, Adjunct Professor at the National Drug Research Institute (Melbourne based), Curtin University d3sign/Getty Alcohol has many negative effects on our health, some of which may surprise you. These include short-term impacts such as waking up with a pounding head or anxiety, to long-term effects including

    What’s happened to Australia’s green hydrogen dream? Here are 5 reasons the industry has floundered
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Reeve, Program Director, Energy and Climate Change, Grattan Institute An official from German energy supplier Eon with Fortescue founder Andrew Forrest after inking a deal in 2022 to supply green hydrogen from Australia to Germany. Michael Kappeler/picture alliance via Getty Images As the world looks for

    Soaring house prices may be locking people into marriages, new research shows
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Whelan, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Sydney GAS-photo/Shutterstock House prices continued to rise across Australia in June, recent data shows. Nationally, prices have risen about 38% in the past five years. Higher housing prices are simply one contributor, albeit a very important one, to the

    Can’t work out without music? Neither could the ancient Greeks and Romans
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Konstantine Panegyres, Lecturer in Classics and Ancient History, The University of Western Australia Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA These days when you see people exercising, they’re usually also listening to music, whether they’re at the gym, or out jogging on the street. It makes sense, as studies have

    The Bradbury Group features Palestinian journalist Yousef Aljamal, Middle East report and political panel
    Asia Pacific Report In the new weekly political podcast, The Bradbury Group, last night presenter Martyn Bradbury talked with visiting Palestinian journalist Dr Yousef Aljamal. They assess the current situation in Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza and what New Zealand should be doing. As Bradbury, publisher of The Daily Blog, notes, “Fourth Estate public broadcasting

    Author David Robie tells of outrage over sinking of the Rainbow Warrior 40 years ago
    RNZ News Nights Tomorrow marks 40 years since the bombing and sinking of the Rainbow Warrior — a moment that changed the course of New Zealand’s history and reshaped how we saw ourselves on the world stage. Two French agents planted two explosives on the ship, then just before midnight, explosions ripped through the hull

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Washington’s war demands – Australia right to refuse being dragged into a potential conflict with China over Taiwan

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Blaxland, Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University

    Andy. LIU/Shutterstock

    The United States can count on Australia as one of its closest allies.

    Dating back to the shared experiences in the second world war and the ANZUS Treaty signed in 1951, Australia has steadfastly worked to help ensure the US remains the principal security guarantor in the Indo-Pacific.

    Australia’s track record speaks for itself. Yet additional demands are being placed that rankle.

    The Pentagon wants to know how Australia – and other allies such as Japan – would respond in the event of a war with China over Taiwan.

    Making these demands – which are being sought as part of the review of the AUKUS nuclear submarine agreement – is both unjustified and unreasonable.

    ‘100 years of mateship’

    Since federation in 1901, Australians have found themselves alongside US counterparts in almost all the major conflicts of the 20th century and beyond.

    It is this shared experience that led former Ambassador to Washington, Joe Hockey, to coin the term “100 years of mateship”.

    The pinnacle of the security relationship is the ANZUS Treaty which is a loosely worded document barely 800 words long.

    However, it is important to remember AUKUS is just that – a technical agreement, albeit premised on the century-spanning trusted collaboration across the full spectrum of national security ties.

    Goldilocks solution

    More recently, the US administration has made demands of allies, including Australia, the likes of which have not been seen in living memory.

    This spans not just tariffs, but also increased defence spending. American policymakers appear oblivious or unconcerned about the blowback they are generating.

    It is this context which makes the US demands for a broad-ranging and largely open-ended commitment over the defence of Taiwan, in advance of any conflict, so extraordinary and unhelpful.

    Under-secretary of defence for policy Elbridge Colby who wants a clear sense of how Australia would act in a potential war over Taiwan.
    Supplied by US Department of Defence, CC BY

    Australia has long had a fear of abandonment. Ever since the searing experience of the fall of Singapore in 1942, officials have been eager to burnish ties with US counterparts. Conversely, there has always been a strong element in the community that has feared entrapment in yet another US-led war in Asia.

    The experience in the Korean and Vietnam wars, let alone Afghanistan and Iraq, left many guarded about the efficacy of hitching the wagon to US-led military campaigns.

    In essence, though, Australian policymakers have long sought the Goldilocks solution: not too enthusiastic to trigger entrapment and not too lukewarm to trigger abandonment.

    No guarantees

    Now Australia, Japan and others face a surprising new push by American officials for a commitment to a hypothetical conflict, under open-ended circumstances.

    The irony is that American demands for a commitment fly in the face of the loosely worded ANZUS alliance – which stipulates an agreement to consult, but little more than that.

    The AUKUS agreement includes no such guarantees either. The overt and confronting nature of Washington’s demands means Prime Minister Anthony Albanese effectively has no option but to push back:

    We support the status quo when it comes to Taiwan. We don’t support any unilateral action […] we want peace and security in our region.

    Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy was adamant Australia would not be committing forces ahead of any “hypothetical” conflict:

    The decision to commit Australian troops to a conflict will be made by the government of the day, not in advance, but by the government of the day.

    A further irony is Australia, like Japan, is already hugely invested in its US military relationship, particularly through its military technology.

    The purchase of the F35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft, for instance, was meant to help enable the generation of interoperable forces, yet no such demand has been made when it comes to an advance commitment over their use in support of US ambitions.

    So why invoke AUKUS in such a way?

    Evidently, the way the US is trying to stand over Japan and Australia is harmful to its own interests. Such adversarial and unduly transactional behaviour could provoke a popular backlash in Australia and elsewhere.

    The government has rightly rebuffed the calls saying it would be up to the government of the day to make such a decision. It is likely this will not be well received by the Trump administration. The PM is right though, to say it’s hypothetical and not worthy of a public endorsement.

    Strategic ambiguity

    Yet a further irony is that this is mostly a moot point.

    The key benefit of alliance collaboration is already in place – and that relates to the efforts to deter China from ever acting on its desire to change the status quo in the first place.

    As former PM and now ambassador to Washington, Kevin Rudd explained in his book, The Avoidable War, geo-political disaster is still avoidable, particularly if the US and China can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through managed strategic competition.

    This strategic ambiguity is meant to complicate a potential adversary’s military planners and political decision makers’ thought processes over the advantages and disadvantages of going to war.

    China already knows a clash over Taiwan would mean US allies like Japan and Australia would find it virtually impossible to avoid being entangled. The strategic ambiguity can be maintained ad infinitum, so long as an outright invasion is averted.

    And the likelihood of conflict over Taiwan? I remain sanguine that conflict can be avoided.

    But to do so would involve clear and compelling messaging: both through diplomatic channels and through the demonstration of robust military capabilities that war would be too costly.

    John Blaxland received funding (2015–2018) from the US DoD Minerva Research Initiative.

    – ref. Washington’s war demands – Australia right to refuse being dragged into a potential conflict with China over Taiwan – https://theconversation.com/washingtons-war-demands-australia-right-to-refuse-being-dragged-into-a-potential-conflict-with-china-over-taiwan-261076

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Washington’s war demands – Australia right to refuse being dragged into a potential conflict with China over Taiwan

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Blaxland, Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University

    Andy. LIU/Shutterstock

    The United States can count on Australia as one of its closest allies.

    Dating back to the shared experiences in the second world war and the ANZUS Treaty signed in 1951, Australia has steadfastly worked to help ensure the US remains the principal security guarantor in the Indo-Pacific.

    Australia’s track record speaks for itself. Yet additional demands are being placed that rankle.

    The Pentagon wants to know how Australia – and other allies such as Japan – would respond in the event of a war with China over Taiwan.

    Making these demands – which are being sought as part of the review of the AUKUS nuclear submarine agreement – is both unjustified and unreasonable.

    ‘100 years of mateship’

    Since federation in 1901, Australians have found themselves alongside US counterparts in almost all the major conflicts of the 20th century and beyond.

    It is this shared experience that led former Ambassador to Washington, Joe Hockey, to coin the term “100 years of mateship”.

    The pinnacle of the security relationship is the ANZUS Treaty which is a loosely worded document barely 800 words long.

    However, it is important to remember AUKUS is just that – a technical agreement, albeit premised on the century-spanning trusted collaboration across the full spectrum of national security ties.

    Goldilocks solution

    More recently, the US administration has made demands of allies, including Australia, the likes of which have not been seen in living memory.

    This spans not just tariffs, but also increased defence spending. American policymakers appear oblivious or unconcerned about the blowback they are generating.

    It is this context which makes the US demands for a broad-ranging and largely open-ended commitment over the defence of Taiwan, in advance of any conflict, so extraordinary and unhelpful.

    Under-secretary of defence for policy Elbridge Colby who wants a clear sense of how Australia would act in a potential war over Taiwan.
    Supplied by US Department of Defence, CC BY

    Australia has long had a fear of abandonment. Ever since the searing experience of the fall of Singapore in 1942, officials have been eager to burnish ties with US counterparts. Conversely, there has always been a strong element in the community that has feared entrapment in yet another US-led war in Asia.

    The experience in the Korean and Vietnam wars, let alone Afghanistan and Iraq, left many guarded about the efficacy of hitching the wagon to US-led military campaigns.

    In essence, though, Australian policymakers have long sought the Goldilocks solution: not too enthusiastic to trigger entrapment and not too lukewarm to trigger abandonment.

    No guarantees

    Now Australia, Japan and others face a surprising new push by American officials for a commitment to a hypothetical conflict, under open-ended circumstances.

    The irony is that American demands for a commitment fly in the face of the loosely worded ANZUS alliance – which stipulates an agreement to consult, but little more than that.

    The AUKUS agreement includes no such guarantees either. The overt and confronting nature of Washington’s demands means Prime Minister Anthony Albanese effectively has no option but to push back:

    We support the status quo when it comes to Taiwan. We don’t support any unilateral action […] we want peace and security in our region.

    Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy was adamant Australia would not be committing forces ahead of any “hypothetical” conflict:

    The decision to commit Australian troops to a conflict will be made by the government of the day, not in advance, but by the government of the day.

    A further irony is Australia, like Japan, is already hugely invested in its US military relationship, particularly through its military technology.

    The purchase of the F35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft, for instance, was meant to help enable the generation of interoperable forces, yet no such demand has been made when it comes to an advance commitment over their use in support of US ambitions.

    So why invoke AUKUS in such a way?

    Evidently, the way the US is trying to stand over Japan and Australia is harmful to its own interests. Such adversarial and unduly transactional behaviour could provoke a popular backlash in Australia and elsewhere.

    The government has rightly rebuffed the calls saying it would be up to the government of the day to make such a decision. It is likely this will not be well received by the Trump administration. The PM is right though, to say it’s hypothetical and not worthy of a public endorsement.

    Strategic ambiguity

    Yet a further irony is that this is mostly a moot point.

    The key benefit of alliance collaboration is already in place – and that relates to the efforts to deter China from ever acting on its desire to change the status quo in the first place.

    As former PM and now ambassador to Washington, Kevin Rudd explained in his book, The Avoidable War, geo-political disaster is still avoidable, particularly if the US and China can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through managed strategic competition.

    This strategic ambiguity is meant to complicate a potential adversary’s military planners and political decision makers’ thought processes over the advantages and disadvantages of going to war.

    China already knows a clash over Taiwan would mean US allies like Japan and Australia would find it virtually impossible to avoid being entangled. The strategic ambiguity can be maintained ad infinitum, so long as an outright invasion is averted.

    And the likelihood of conflict over Taiwan? I remain sanguine that conflict can be avoided.

    But to do so would involve clear and compelling messaging: both through diplomatic channels and through the demonstration of robust military capabilities that war would be too costly.

    John Blaxland received funding (2015–2018) from the US DoD Minerva Research Initiative.

    – ref. Washington’s war demands – Australia right to refuse being dragged into a potential conflict with China over Taiwan – https://theconversation.com/washingtons-war-demands-australia-right-to-refuse-being-dragged-into-a-potential-conflict-with-china-over-taiwan-261076

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Women played key roles in Syria’s revolution. Now they’ve been pushed to the margins

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kinda Alsamara, Lecturer in the School of Languages and Cultures, The University of Queensland

    The end of the oppressive Assad regime in Syria in late 2024 has been broadly welcomed on the global stage – underscored by the fact the United States and European Union have now lifted sanctions against the country.

    However, women have been marginalised by Syria’s new leadership. That’s a problem for Syrian women, of course, but it also puts at risk prospects for sustainable peace in Syria.

    A growing body of research, including our own, shows a direct correlation between gender equality and peace.

    Syria now stands at a crossroads. Will it ensure women’s meaningful participation and follow a path to peace? Or will things head in the other direction?

    This is more urgent than ever. Failure to grapple with women’s rights in Syria risks plunging the nation further into extremist violence.

    Women excluded both before and after Assad’s rule

    After decades in power, the harsh Assad regime was overthrown late last year by rebels led by Sunni Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

    But women – who were marginalised politically and economically under Assad – continue to be systematically excluded from decision-making in the new government.

    This is even though women played an essential role in the Syrian revolution. They organised protests and advocated for rights (often at great personal risk).

    They endured sacrifices such as imprisonment, torture, disappearance and displacement.

    Yet, only one woman was appointed to Syria’s immediate post-Assad caretaker government. She didn’t get a ministerial title.

    The caretaker government spokesman reportedly suggested women’s “biological and physiological nature” makes them unsuitable for certain government roles.

    Reports allege the man initially appointed as Syria’s new minister of justice previously oversaw executions of women accused of being sex workers.

    Some Syrian activists are concerned Hayat Tahrir al-Sham will enforce a gendered and conservative interpretation of Islamic law, which prevailed in its previous stronghold of Idlib (a city in northwestern Syria).

    Limited roles for women

    A key moment came when the new Syrian government held a “national dialogue conference” earlier this year. This conference was to establish a forward-looking “political identity” for Syria.

    Of the seven-member conference preparatory committee, only two were women.

    There was no representation on the preparatory committee from several of Syria’s diverse communities, including Kurdish, Alawite and Druze groups.

    Most members had strong ties with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or other Islamist factions.

    About 200 of the 1,000 delegates at the conference were women. However, their input in legislative and security committees was minimal.

    Only one of 18 conference recommendations referred (in a limited way) to women.

    Following the national dialogue conference, new Syrian President Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa signed into force a constitutional declaration that set a five-year transition period and established the interim government.

    Senior figures in the new government described the declaration as guaranteeing women’s political and economic rights.

    Yet only one of Syria’s 23 ministers is a woman: Hind Kabawat, appointed as minister of social affairs and labour. This “soft” portfolio is commonly associated with gendered expectations around care and welfare.

    Key ministries were allocated to al-Sharaa’s all-male long-time comrades from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s base in Idlib.

    Change is possible

    A just and sustainable peace requires proactive measures to integrate women into leadership roles in Syria.

    Change is possible. For example, constitutional mandates could guarantee minimum representation for women in ministerial leadership and judicial positions, which would better reflect the diversity of Syrian society.

    Independent mechanisms could be established to investigate and address gender-based injustices. This would need to provide accountability for past abuses and protect women’s rights under the post-Assad system.

    As we have previously noted, there cannot be a “collective forgetting” of crimes Syrian women experienced in the past.

    Economic empowerment initiatives would also help foster women’s financial independence and participation in public life.

    Public awareness campaigns could also highlight women’s contributions to the revolution and their essential role in nation-building.

    Syria at a crossroads

    With the recent lifting of sanctions by the US and EU, and ongoing regional instability globally, Syria stands at a crossroads.

    The G7 Summit in May 2025 emphasised the global community’s renewed focus on women’s participation in peace processes.

    Influential middle-power countries can play a key role by reviewing sanctions and tying humanitarian aid to the promotion of human rights, gender inclusion and pluralistic governance.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Women played key roles in Syria’s revolution. Now they’ve been pushed to the margins – https://theconversation.com/women-played-key-roles-in-syrias-revolution-now-theyve-been-pushed-to-the-margins-257358

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Washington’s war demands – Australia risks being dragged into a conflict with China over Taiwan

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Blaxland, Professor, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University

    Andy. LIU/Shutterstock

    The United States can count on Australia as one of its closest allies.

    Dating back to the shared experiences in the second world war and the ANZUS Treaty signed in 1951, Australia has steadfastly worked to help ensure the US remains the principal security guarantor in the Indo-Pacific.

    Australia’s track record speaks for itself. Yet additional demands are being placed that rankle.

    The Pentagon wants to know how Australia – and other allies such as Japan – would respond in the event of a war with China over Taiwan.

    Making these demands – which are being sought as part of the review of the AUKUS nuclear submarine agreement – is both unjustified and unreasonable.

    ‘100 years of mateship’

    Since federation in 1901, Australians have found themselves alongside US counterparts in almost all the major conflicts of the 20th century and beyond.

    It is this shared experience that led former Ambassador to Washington, Joe Hockey, to coin the term “100 years of mateship”.

    The pinnacle of the security relationship is the ANZUS Treaty which is a loosely worded document barely 800 words long.

    However, it is important to remember AUKUS is just that – a technical agreement, albeit premised on the century-spanning trusted collaboration across the full spectrum of national security ties.

    Goldilocks solution

    More recently, the US administration has made demands of allies, including Australia, the likes of which have not been seen in living memory.

    This spans not just tariffs, but also increased defence spending. American policymakers appear oblivious or unconcerned about the blowback they are generating.

    It is this context which makes the US demands for a broad-ranging and largely open-ended commitment over the defence of Taiwan, in advance of any conflict, so extraordinary and unhelpful.

    Under-secretary of defence for policy Elbridge Colby who wants a clear sense of how Australia would act in a potential war over Taiwan.
    Supplied by US Department of Defence, CC BY

    Australia has long had a fear of abandonment. Ever since the searing experience of the fall of Singapore in 1942, officials have been eager to burnish ties with US counterparts. Conversely, there has always been a strong element in the community that has feared entrapment in yet another US-led war in Asia.

    The experience in the Korean and Vietnam wars, let alone Afghanistan and Iraq, left many guarded about the efficacy of hitching the wagon to US-led military campaigns.

    In essence, though, Australian policymakers have long sought the Goldilocks solution: not too enthusiastic to trigger entrapment and not too lukewarm to trigger abandonment.

    No guarantees

    Now Australia, Japan and others face a surprising new push by American officials for a commitment to a hypothetical conflict, under open-ended circumstances.

    The irony is that American demands for a commitment fly in the face of the loosely worded ANZUS alliance – which stipulates an agreement to consult, but little more than that.

    The AUKUS agreement includes no such guarantees either. The overt and confronting nature of Washington’s demands means Prime Minister Anthony Albanese effectively has no option but to push back:

    We support the status quo when it comes to Taiwan. We don’t support any unilateral action […] we want peace and security in our region.

    Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy was adamant Australia would not be committing forces ahead of any “hypothetical” conflict:

    The decision to commit Australian troops to a conflict will be made by the government of the day, not in advance, but by the government of the day.

    A further irony is Australia, like Japan, is already hugely invested in its US military relationship, particularly through its military technology.

    The purchase of the F35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft, for instance, was meant to help enable the generation of interoperable forces, yet no such demand has been made when it comes to an advance commitment over their use in support of US ambitions.

    So why invoke AUKUS in such a way?

    Evidently, the way the US is trying to stand over Japan and Australia is harmful to its own interests. Such adversarial and unduly transactional behaviour could provoke a popular backlash in Australia and elsewhere.

    The government has rightly rebuffed the calls saying it would be up to the government of the day to make such a decision. It is likely this will not be well received by the Trump administration. The PM is right though, to say it’s hypothetical and not worthy of a public endorsement.

    Strategic ambiguity

    Yet a further irony is that this is mostly a moot point.

    The key benefit of alliance collaboration is already in place – and that relates to the efforts to deter China from ever acting on its desire to change the status quo in the first place.

    As former PM and now ambassador to Washington, Kevin Rudd explained in his book, The Avoidable War, geo-political disaster is still avoidable, particularly if the US and China can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through managed strategic competition.

    This strategic ambiguity is meant to complicate a potential adversary’s military planners and political decision makers’ thought processes over the advantages and disadvantages of going to war.

    China already knows a clash over Taiwan would mean US allies like Japan and Australia would find it virtually impossible to avoid being entangled. The strategic ambiguity can be maintained ad infinitum, so long as an outright invasion is averted.

    And the likelihood of conflict over Taiwan? I remain sanguine that conflict can be avoided.

    But to do so would involve clear and compelling messaging: both through diplomatic channels and through the demonstration of robust military capabilities that war would be too costly.

    John Blaxland received funding (2015–2018) from the US DoD Minerva Research Initiative.

    – ref. Washington’s war demands – Australia risks being dragged into a conflict with China over Taiwan – https://theconversation.com/washingtons-war-demands-australia-risks-being-dragged-into-a-conflict-with-china-over-taiwan-261076

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: When disasters fall out of the public eye, survivors continue to suffer – a rehabilitation professional explains how sustained mental health support is critical to recovery

    Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Lee Ann Rawlins Williams, Clinical Assistant Professor of Education, Health and Behavior Studies, University of North Dakota

    In Kerrville, Texas, Leighton Sterling watches the rushing floodwaters along the Guadalupe River on July 4, 2025. Eric Vryn via Getty Images News

    The devastating losses from the historic flooding in Texas Hill Country on July 4, 2025, are still coming into grim focus, with 121 deaths confirmed and more than 100 still missing as of July 10.

    As emergency responders focus on clearing debris and searching for victims, a less visible and slower disaster has been unfolding: the need for ongoing mental health support long after headlines fade.

    This phase is no less critical than restoring power or rebuilding bridges. Disasters destabilize emotional well-being, leaving distress, prolonged recovery and long-term impacts in their wake long after the event is over.

    Without sustained emotional support, people and communities face heightened risks of prolonged trauma and stalled recovery.

    As an educator and practitioner focused on disability and rehabilitation, I explore the intersection of disaster recovery and the impact of disasters on mental health. Both my research and that of others underscore the vital importance of support systems that not only help people cope in the immediate aftermath of a disaster but also facilitate long-term healing over the months and years that follow – especially for vulnerable populations like children, older adults and people with disabilities.

    The emotional toll of disasters

    Natural disasters disrupt routines, displace families and challenge people’s sense of control and security. In the immediate aftermath, survivors often experience shock, grief, anxiety and sleep disturbances. Often these symptoms may evolve into chronic stress, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder or a combination of these conditions.

    A 2022 study found that Texans who experienced two or more disasters within a five-year span had significantly poorer mental health, as reflected by lower scores on standardized psychological assessments, which highlights the cumulative toll repeated disasters can have on mental well-being.

    After Hurricane Katrina ravaged New Orleans in 2005, nearly a third of survivors continued to experience poor mental health years later.

    And reports following Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in 2017 revealed surging rates of anxiety, depression and suicidal thoughts, especially in areas where services remained unavailable for extended periods of time.

    There are actionable ways to make a difference in the recovery process.

    Strained recovery systems

    Disaster response understandably focuses on immediate needs like rescue operations, providing post-disaster housing and repairing damaged infrastructure. In addition, short-term mental health supports such as mobile health clinics are often provided in the immediate aftermath of a disaster.

    However, although emergency services are deployed quickly after a disaster, long-term mental health support is often delayed or under-resourced, leaving many people without continued care during the recovery period, especially in remote or rural communities, exposing deep structural gaps in how recovery systems are designed.

    One year after Hurricane Harvey devastated parts of Texas in 2017, more than 90% of Gulf Coast residents reported ongoing stress related to housing instability, financial hardship or displacement. Yet less than 10% of people stated that they or someone in their household had used mental health services following the disaster.

    Hurricane Helene in 2024 similarly tested the resilience of rural mental health networks in western North Carolina. The storm damaged roads and bridges, schools and even local clinics.

    This prompted a news organization, North Carolina Health News, to warn of rising “trauma, stress and isolation” among residents as providers scrambled to offer free counseling despite legal barriers stemming from licensing requirements to provide counseling across state borders. State health officials activated community crisis centers and helplines, while mobile mental health teams were dispatched from Tennessee to help those impacted by the disaster. However, state representatives stressed that without long-term investment, these critical supports risk being one-off responses.

    These events serve as a powerful reminder that while roads and buildings can often be restored quickly, emotional recovery is a slower, more complex process. Truly rebuilding requires treating mental health with the same urgency as physical infrastructure. This requires investing in strong mental health recovery systems, supporting local clinics, sustaining provider networks and integrating emotional care into recovery plans from the start.

    In Hunt, Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott speaks to volunteers and community members during a news conference on July 8, 2025.
    Brandon Bell via Getty Images News

    Finding mental health support following a disaster

    Lessons learned from previous disasters and an abundance of research show how sustained mental health supports can help people recover and build resilience.

    These six lessons are particularly helpful for finding needed mental health support following a disaster:

    • If you’re feeling overwhelmed after a disaster, you’re not alone, and help is available. Free and confidential support is offered through resources like the Disaster Distress Helpline (1-800-985-5990 or text TalkWithUs to 66746), which connects you to trained counselors 24/7.

    • Many communities offer local mental health crisis lines or walk-in centers that remain active well after the disaster passes. Check your county or state health department’s website for updated listings and information.

    • Even if physical offices are closed, many clinics now offer virtual counseling or can connect you with therapists and medication refills remotely. If you’ve seen someone before, ask if they’re still available by phone or video.

    • After major disasters, states often deploy mobile health clinics that include mental health services to shelters, churches or schools. These temporary services are free and open to the public.

    • If someone you care about is struggling, help them connect with resources in the community. Share hotline numbers, offer to help make an appointment or just let them know it’s OK to ask for support. Many people don’t realize that help is available, or they think it’s only for more “serious” problems. It’s not.

    • Mental health support doesn’t always arrive right away. Keep an eye on local news, school updates or health department alerts for new services that may become available in the weeks or months after a disaster.

    Disasters don’t just damage buildings; they disrupt lives in lasting ways.

    While emotional recovery takes time, support is available. Staying informed and sharing resources with others can help ensure that the road to recovery isn’t traveled alone.

    Lee Ann Rawlins Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. When disasters fall out of the public eye, survivors continue to suffer – a rehabilitation professional explains how sustained mental health support is critical to recovery – https://theconversation.com/when-disasters-fall-out-of-the-public-eye-survivors-continue-to-suffer-a-rehabilitation-professional-explains-how-sustained-mental-health-support-is-critical-to-recovery-260781

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: When disasters fall out of the public eye, survivors continue to suffer – a rehabilitation professional explains how sustained mental health support is critical to recovery

    Source: The Conversation – USA (3) – By Lee Ann Rawlins Williams, Clinical Assistant Professor of Education, Health and Behavior Studies, University of North Dakota

    In Kerrville, Texas, Leighton Sterling watches the rushing floodwaters along the Guadalupe River on July 4, 2025. Eric Vryn via Getty Images News

    The devastating losses from the historic flooding in Texas Hill Country on July 4, 2025, are still coming into grim focus, with 121 deaths confirmed and more than 100 still missing as of July 10.

    As emergency responders focus on clearing debris and searching for victims, a less visible and slower disaster has been unfolding: the need for ongoing mental health support long after headlines fade.

    This phase is no less critical than restoring power or rebuilding bridges. Disasters destabilize emotional well-being, leaving distress, prolonged recovery and long-term impacts in their wake long after the event is over.

    Without sustained emotional support, people and communities face heightened risks of prolonged trauma and stalled recovery.

    As an educator and practitioner focused on disability and rehabilitation, I explore the intersection of disaster recovery and the impact of disasters on mental health. Both my research and that of others underscore the vital importance of support systems that not only help people cope in the immediate aftermath of a disaster but also facilitate long-term healing over the months and years that follow – especially for vulnerable populations like children, older adults and people with disabilities.

    The emotional toll of disasters

    Natural disasters disrupt routines, displace families and challenge people’s sense of control and security. In the immediate aftermath, survivors often experience shock, grief, anxiety and sleep disturbances. Often these symptoms may evolve into chronic stress, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder or a combination of these conditions.

    A 2022 study found that Texans who experienced two or more disasters within a five-year span had significantly poorer mental health, as reflected by lower scores on standardized psychological assessments, which highlights the cumulative toll repeated disasters can have on mental well-being.

    After Hurricane Katrina ravaged New Orleans in 2005, nearly a third of survivors continued to experience poor mental health years later.

    And reports following Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in 2017 revealed surging rates of anxiety, depression and suicidal thoughts, especially in areas where services remained unavailable for extended periods of time.

    There are actionable ways to make a difference in the recovery process.

    Strained recovery systems

    Disaster response understandably focuses on immediate needs like rescue operations, providing post-disaster housing and repairing damaged infrastructure. In addition, short-term mental health supports such as mobile health clinics are often provided in the immediate aftermath of a disaster.

    However, although emergency services are deployed quickly after a disaster, long-term mental health support is often delayed or under-resourced, leaving many people without continued care during the recovery period, especially in remote or rural communities, exposing deep structural gaps in how recovery systems are designed.

    One year after Hurricane Harvey devastated parts of Texas in 2017, more than 90% of Gulf Coast residents reported ongoing stress related to housing instability, financial hardship or displacement. Yet less than 10% of people stated that they or someone in their household had used mental health services following the disaster.

    Hurricane Helene in 2024 similarly tested the resilience of rural mental health networks in western North Carolina. The storm damaged roads and bridges, schools and even local clinics.

    This prompted a news organization, North Carolina Health News, to warn of rising “trauma, stress and isolation” among residents as providers scrambled to offer free counseling despite legal barriers stemming from licensing requirements to provide counseling across state borders. State health officials activated community crisis centers and helplines, while mobile mental health teams were dispatched from Tennessee to help those impacted by the disaster. However, state representatives stressed that without long-term investment, these critical supports risk being one-off responses.

    These events serve as a powerful reminder that while roads and buildings can often be restored quickly, emotional recovery is a slower, more complex process. Truly rebuilding requires treating mental health with the same urgency as physical infrastructure. This requires investing in strong mental health recovery systems, supporting local clinics, sustaining provider networks and integrating emotional care into recovery plans from the start.

    In Hunt, Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott speaks to volunteers and community members during a news conference on July 8, 2025.
    Brandon Bell via Getty Images News

    Finding mental health support following a disaster

    Lessons learned from previous disasters and an abundance of research show how sustained mental health supports can help people recover and build resilience.

    These six lessons are particularly helpful for finding needed mental health support following a disaster:

    • If you’re feeling overwhelmed after a disaster, you’re not alone, and help is available. Free and confidential support is offered through resources like the Disaster Distress Helpline (1-800-985-5990 or text TalkWithUs to 66746), which connects you to trained counselors 24/7.

    • Many communities offer local mental health crisis lines or walk-in centers that remain active well after the disaster passes. Check your county or state health department’s website for updated listings and information.

    • Even if physical offices are closed, many clinics now offer virtual counseling or can connect you with therapists and medication refills remotely. If you’ve seen someone before, ask if they’re still available by phone or video.

    • After major disasters, states often deploy mobile health clinics that include mental health services to shelters, churches or schools. These temporary services are free and open to the public.

    • If someone you care about is struggling, help them connect with resources in the community. Share hotline numbers, offer to help make an appointment or just let them know it’s OK to ask for support. Many people don’t realize that help is available, or they think it’s only for more “serious” problems. It’s not.

    • Mental health support doesn’t always arrive right away. Keep an eye on local news, school updates or health department alerts for new services that may become available in the weeks or months after a disaster.

    Disasters don’t just damage buildings; they disrupt lives in lasting ways.

    While emotional recovery takes time, support is available. Staying informed and sharing resources with others can help ensure that the road to recovery isn’t traveled alone.

    Lee Ann Rawlins Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. When disasters fall out of the public eye, survivors continue to suffer – a rehabilitation professional explains how sustained mental health support is critical to recovery – https://theconversation.com/when-disasters-fall-out-of-the-public-eye-survivors-continue-to-suffer-a-rehabilitation-professional-explains-how-sustained-mental-health-support-is-critical-to-recovery-260781

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Music is at the forefront of AI disruption, but NZ artists still have few protections

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dave Carter, Associate Professor, School of Music and Screen Arts, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

    Getty Images

    Was the recent Velvet Sundown phenomenon a great music and media hoax, a sign of things to come, or just another example of what’s already happening ?

    In case you missed it, the breakout act was streamed hundreds of thousands of times before claims emerged the band and their music were products of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI).

    Despite the “band” insisting they were real, an “associate” later admitted it was indeed an “art hoax” marketing stunt. Much of the subsequent commentary was concerned with fairness – particularly that a “fake” band was succeeding at the expense of “real” artists.

    But Velvet Sundown is only the most recent example in a long history of computer generated and assisted music creation – going back to the 1950s when a chemistry professor named Lejaren Hiller debuted a musical composition written by a computer.

    By the 1980s, David Cope’s Experiments in Musical Intelligence created music so close to the style of Chopin and Bach it fooled classically trained musicians.

    Artist and composer Holly Herndon was highlighting a need for the ethical use and licensing of voice models and deepfakes several years before Grimes invited others to use AI-generated versions of her voice to make new music, and “Deepfake Drake” alarmed the major record labels.

    At the same time, music companies, including Warner, Capitol and rapper-producer Timbaland, have since inked record contracts for AI-generated work.

    GenAI-powered tools, such as those offered by Izotope, LANDR and Apple, have become commonplace in mixing and mastering since the late 2000s. Machine learning technology also underpins streaming recommendations.

    Creativity and copyright

    Despite this relatively long history of technology’s impact on music, it still tends to be framed as a future challenge. The New Zealand government’s Strategy for Artificial Intelligence, released this month, suggests we’re at a “pivotal moment” as the AI-powered future approaches.

    In June, a draft insight briefing from Manata Taonga/Ministry for Culture & Heritage explored “how digital technologies may transform the ways New Zealanders create, share and protect stories in 2040 and beyond”.

    It joins other recent publications by the Australasian Performing Rights Association and New Zealand’s Artificial Intelligence Researchers Association, which grapple with the future impacts of AI technologies.

    One of the main issues is the use of copyright material to train AI systems. Last year, two AI startups, including the one used by Velvet Sundown, were sued by Sony, Universal and Warner for using unlicensed recordings as part of their training data.

    It’s possible the models have been trained on recordings by local musicians without their permission, too. But without any requirement for tech firms to disclose their training data it can’t be confirmed.

    Even if we did know, the copyright implications for works created by AI in Aotearoa New Zealand aren’t clear. And it’s not possible for musicians to opt out in any meaningful way.

    This goes against the data governance model designed by Te Mana Raraunga/Māori Sovereignty Network. Māori writer members of music rights administrator APRA AMCOS have also raised concerns about potential cultural appropriation and misuse due to GenAI.

    Recent research suggesting GenAI work displaces human output in creative industries is particularly worrying for local musicians who already struggle for visibility. But it’s not an isolated phenomenon.

    In Australia, GenAI has reportedly been used to impersonate successful, emerging and dead artists. And French streaming service Deezer claims up to 20,000 tracks created by GenAI were being uploaded to its service daily.

    Regulation in the real world

    There has been increased scrutiny of streaming fraud, including a world-first criminal case brought last year against a musician who used bots to generate millions of streams for tracks created with GenAI.

    But on social media, musicians now compete for attention with a flood of “AI slop”, with no real prospect of platforms doing anything about it.

    More troublingly, New Zealand law has been described as “woefully inadequate” at combating deepfakes and non-consensual intimate imagery that can damage artists’ brands and livelihoods.

    The government’s AI strategy prioritises adoption, innovation and a light-touch approach over these creative and cultural implications. But there is growing consensus internationally that regulatory intervention is warranted.

    The European Union has enacted legislation requiring AI services to be transparent about what they have trained their models on, an important first step towards an AI licensing regime for recorded and musical works.

    An Australian senate committee has recommended whole-of-economy AI guardrails, including transparency requirements in line with the EU. Denmark has gone even further, with plans to give every citizen copyright of their own facial features, voice and body, including specific protections for performing artists.

    It’s nearly ten years since the music business was described as the “canary in a coalmine” for other industries and a bellwether of broader cultural and economic shifts. How we address the current challenges presented by AI in music will have far-reaching implications.

    Dave Carter is a writer member of APRA AMCOS. He has received funding and contributed to projects funded by Manatū Taongao Ministry for Culture and Heritage, NZ on Air and APRA AMCOS.

    Jesse Austin-Stewart has completed commissioned research for NZ On Air and participated in focus groups for Manatū Taonga Ministry for Culture and Heritage. He has received competitive funding from Creative New Zealand, NZ On Air, Manatū Taonga Ministry for Culture & Hertiage, and the NZ Music Commission. He is a writer member of APRA AMCOS and a member of the Composer’s Association of New Zealand and Recorded Music NZ

    Oli Wilson has previously completed research in partnership with or commissioned by APRA AMCOS, Toi Mai Workforce Development Council, Manatū Taonga Ministry for Culture & Heritage and the NZ Music Commission. He has also received funding, or contributed to projects that have benefited from funding from NZ on Air, the NZ Music Commission and Recorded Music New Zealand. He has provided services to The Chills, owns shares in TripTunz Limited, and is a writer member of APRA AMCOS.

    – ref. Music is at the forefront of AI disruption, but NZ artists still have few protections – https://theconversation.com/music-is-at-the-forefront-of-ai-disruption-but-nz-artists-still-have-few-protections-260299

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Can’t work out without music? Neither could the ancient Greeks and Romans

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Konstantine Panegyres, Lecturer in Classics and Ancient History, The University of Western Australia

    Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    These days when you see people exercising, they’re usually also listening to music, whether they’re at the gym, or out jogging on the street.

    It makes sense, as studies have shown listening to music can help you get the most out of a workout.

    Somehow the ancient Greeks and Romans knew this too, long before modern science was there to back it.

    A more than 2,000-year-old habit

    In his oration To the People of Alexandria, the Greek writer Dio Chrysostom (40-110 CE) complained about a phenomenon he saw all the time.

    Dio wrote people loved to listen to music in their daily activities. According to him, music could be found in the courtroom, in the lecture theatre, in the doctor’s room, and even in the gym.

    “Everything is done to music […] people will presently go so far as to use song to accompany their exercise in the gymnasium,” Dio wrote.

    But exercising to music wasn’t a new thing in his day. This practice has been recorded across the ancient Greek and Roman worlds from the earliest times, and as far back as the poems of Homer (circa 800 BCE).

    Why exercise to music?

    There are many depictions of professional athletes training, or competing, to the accompaniment of music in ancient Greek vase paintings.

    In one vase painting from the 5th century BCE, a group of athletes trains while a musician plays the aulos, a type of ancient pipe instrument.

    Young men exercising to the sound of an aulos player (an ancient wind instrument).
    Wikimedia

    The ancient writer Plutarch of Chaeronea (46-119 CE) tells us music was also played while people wrestled or did athletics.

    Athenian writer Flavius Philostratus (circa 170-245 CE) offers clues as to why. In a book about gymnastics, Philostratus wrote music served to stimulate athletes, and that their performance might be improved through listening to music.

    Today’s researchers have proven this to be true. One 2020 study involving 3,599 participants showed listening to music during exercise had many benefits, such as reducing the perception of fatigue and exertion, and improving physical performance and breathing.

    Singing and trumpets

    Since ancient people didn’t have electronic devices, they found other ways to exercise to music. Some had music played by a musician during their exercise routine. Others sang while they exercised.

    Singing while playing ball games was particularly popular. In Homer’s Odyssey (circa 8th century BCE), Nausicaa, the daughter of the King of Phaeacia, plays a ball game with her girl friends, and they all sing songs as they play.

    Similarly, the historian Carystius of Pergamum (2nd century BCE) wrote the women of his time “sang as they played ball”.

    Another popular activity was dancing to music. Dancing was widely regarded as a gymnastic exercise people could do for better health.

    One famous advocate of the benefits of dancing as exercise was the great Athenian philosopher Socrates (circa 470-399 BCE). According to the historian Diogenes Laertius (3rd century CE), “it was Socrates’ regular habit to dance, thinking that such exercise helped to keep the body in good condition”.

    Exercising to music was depicted in several ancient Greek vase painting.
    Wikimedia, CC BY-NC-SA

    Apart from individuals using music in their personal exercise, soldiers also did training exercises, and marched to battle, to the sound of trumpets.

    Don’t skip leg day

    There was a belief in ancient Greek and Roman that music and exercise played an important role in shaping and developing the body and soul.

    The ideal was harmony and moderation. The body and soul needed to be balanced and proportionate in all their parts, without any excess. As such, doing one kind of exercise too often, or exercising one body part excessively, was frowned upon.

    The physician Galen of Pergamum (129-216 CE) criticised types of exercise that focused too much on one part of the body. He preferred ball games as they exercised the whole body evenly.

    Immoderation in music – that is, listening to too much, or listening to music that was too emotional – was also sometimes frowned upon.

    For example, the Athenian philosopher Plato (circa 428-348 BCE) famously argued most music should be censored as it can stir the passions too strongly. Plato thought only simple and unemotional music, listened to in moderation, should be allowed.

    If the ancients could see today’s people running along the pavement with music thumping in their ears, they would surely be amazed. And they’d probably approve – as long as it wasn’t being done in excess.

    Konstantine Panegyres does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can’t work out without music? Neither could the ancient Greeks and Romans – https://theconversation.com/cant-work-out-without-music-neither-could-the-ancient-greeks-and-romans-258069

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Soaring house prices may be locking people into marriages, new research shows

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Whelan, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Sydney

    GAS-photo/Shutterstock

    House prices continued to rise across Australia in June, recent data shows. Nationally, prices have risen about 38% in the past five years.

    Higher housing prices are simply one contributor, albeit a very important one, to the cost of living crisis that Australian households face. Energy prices are another.

    Those higher costs of living and the financial stress associated with them are linked to a range of negative outcomes for households, including poor health and wellbeing, greater housing insecurity, and some families having to go without some essential items.

    One consequence of house prices that has largely been ignored is their relationship to marriage and divorce.

    Divorce rates are at historic lows

    The rate of divorce in Australia is at the lowest level since the introduction of no-fault divorce in 1976.

    The 1990s recession was also a period of significant financial hardship for households, and divorces rose over that time. Why isn’t this happening now?

    Couples may prefer to divorce but can’t for financial reasons.

    Why? Put simply, divorce is a decision that brings with it significant costs. The financial implications of divorce could mean couples stay together longer than they’d like to.

    Why do people choose to marry or separate?

    To understand patterns of divorce, a good place to start is to think about why couples choose to marry, or separate, in the first place.

    Economists argue that individuals marry if the expected benefits from marriage exceed the benefits from remaining single.

    As new information arises or unexpected outcomes occur, individuals may reassess their beliefs about the expected benefits from being married versus being single.

    In turn, we might expect that separation occurs if either partner believes they will be better off outside the marriage than within it, taking into account all costs and constraints.

    How housing prices can affect the likelihood of divorce

    Research shows that housing prices are closely linked to a range of household behaviours and outcomes, including consumer spending, labour supply and fertility intentions.

    Rising housing prices might encourage couples to remain married (or not separate) due to the higher housing costs they would face if they separated.

    It is generally cheaper to run a single household where many resources are shared rather than two separate households. This may be thought of as a cost that accompanies higher house prices.

    The high cost of housing can affect couples’ decisions to separate.
    Elias Bitar/Shutterstock

    Of course, higher house prices also offer some benefit in the event of separation. For homeowners, the asset held by the couple is more valuable and the wealth each partner may be entitled to is greater. This benefit from separation might encourage couples to separate and divorce.

    Our research, presented at the Australian Conference of Economists last week and not yet peer reviewed, addresses this issue. We looked at whether unanticipated changes in the growth of housing prices are related to the likelihood of divorce.

    It is important to focus on unanticipated changes in housing prices. Unanticipated changes, or “shocks”, will lead individuals to reassess their decision to stay married, or separate and divorce.

    Which factors explain divorce in Australia?

    Our research sought to understand the key factors associated with divorce in Australia using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey.

    Not unexpectedly we found couples who share similar traits such as the same religion, education level or place of birth are more likely to remain married. A longer time being married is also linked to couples being less likely to separate. In contrast, partners whose parents had divorced are more likely to separate.

    Importantly, the inclusion of housing price shocks into our analysis indicates they have a significant effect on the likelihood of divorce. But the effect differs depending on whether the housing price shock is positive or negative.

    For homeowners, lower-than-anticipated housing price growth significantly increases the likelihood of separation. In this case the cost of lower house prices is more important than the benefit of lower house prices. When house prices don’t grow as quickly as anticipated, couples can separate knowing they will not face as large a penalty running separate households.

    So what lesson may be drawn from this research and why is a link between housing prices and divorce important?

    Our findings indicate higher-than-expected house price growth may be keeping some people in marriages they’d otherwise leave, but don’t, for financial concerns. This is more likely to include women with low education levels, low-income households and older couples.

    In some instances, this will have negative consequences. Often those harmful consequences are disproportionately experienced by women and policy settings have a role to play in reducing those effects.

    One only needs to look at initiatives such as the Leaving Violence Program. By providing financial support to assist people leaving potentially dangerous relationships, it will alleviate barriers associated with high housing costs that come after separation.

    Stephen Whelan receives funding from the Australian Research Council as part of DP230101054. Funding is also received from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute for project 24/PRO/73346.

    Luke Hartigan receives funding from the Australian Research Council as part of DP230100959.

    – ref. Soaring house prices may be locking people into marriages, new research shows – https://theconversation.com/soaring-house-prices-may-be-locking-people-into-marriages-new-research-shows-260086

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What’s happened to Australia’s green hydrogen dream? Here are 5 reasons the industry has floundered

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Reeve, Program Director, Energy and Climate Change, Grattan Institute

    An official from German energy supplier Eon with Fortescue founder Andrew Forrest after inking a deal in 2022 to supply green hydrogen from Australia to Germany. Michael Kappeler/picture alliance via Getty Images

    As the world looks for ways to tackle climate change, Australia has invested heavily in green hydrogen.

    Green hydrogen is shaping as the best option to strip carbon emissions from some industrial processes, such as iron-making and ammonia production. But making the dream a reality in Australia is proving difficult.

    Two recent announcements are a case in point. This month, the Queensland government withdrew financial support for the Central Queensland Hydrogen Hub. It came weeks after energy company Fortescue cut 90 green hydrogen jobs in Queensland and Western Australia.

    I led the development of Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy in 2019, in my previous job as a federal public servant. I also co-authored a Grattan Institute report on how hydrogen could help decarbonise the Australian economy. Here, I explain the main challenges to getting the industry off the ground.

    But first, what is green hydrogen?

    Hydrogen is the lightest and most abundant element in the universe. It’s usually found as a gas, or bonded to other elements.

    It’s used to make products such as fertilisers, explosives and plastics. In future, it may also be a zero-emissions replacement for fossil fuels in industries such as steel and chemicals manufacturing.

    Australia currently makes very low volumes of hydrogen using natural gas, which produces greenhouse gas emissions. We are well-placed to produce “green” or zero-emissions hydrogen, through a process powered by renewable energy which releases hydrogen from water.

    But creating a large green hydrogen industry won’t be easy. These are the main five challenges.

    1. The learning curve is steep

    About 15 facilities in Australia are currently producing green hydrogen, all at low volumes – between 8 kilograms and one tonne a day (see chart below).

    By contrast, most recently cancelled projects would have produced hundreds of tonnes of green hydrogen daily. The Central Queensland Hydrogen Hub, for example, would initially have produced about 200 tonnes a day, scaling up to 800 tonnes in the 2030s.

    The failure of these big projects shows Australia has much to learn about planning, building, commissioning and operating large green hydrogen facilities.

    The hydrogen projects currently operating in Australia are orders of magnitude smaller than those proposed.
    Grattan Insitute, CC BY-NC-SA

    2. Demand is limited

    Very little hydrogen is currently used in Australia – around 500,000 tonnes a year. This is less than 1% of national energy consumption.

    Most of this hydrogen is produced using natural gas, and is produced on site at existing industrial operations that require hydrogen, such as oil refiners and ammonia plants. Using hydrogen from a different source would require major – and costly – engineering changes at these facilities.

    So, how do new green hydrogen producers create demand for their product?

    The first option is to convince a company to spend money changing their operations to bring in green hydrogen from outside. This is not an easy prospect. The second is to find big new markets – which leads to the next challenge.

    3. The chicken-and-egg problem

    Renewable hydrogen isn’t a direct substitute for conventional fuels.

    You can’t burn hydrogen in your gas stovetop without changing the pipes in the house and the burners on the stove. Likewise, you can’t use hydrogen as a substitute for coal when making steel without changing the smelting process.

    This creates a chicken-and-egg problem. Green hydrogen proponents won’t invest in high-volume production unless there are large users to buy the product. But large users won’t invest in changing their processes unless they are assured of supply.

    4. Green hydrogen is expensive

    Green hydrogen is much more expensive than conventional hydrogen. And as yet, there’s little evidence buyers are willing pay more for it.

    So for green hydrogen to compete with conventional production, it needs government subsidies.

    The huge expense is largely due to the electricity used to make green hydrogen – prices of which are currently high.

    As renewable energy expands, electricity prices in Australia are expected to fall. But building more large-scale renewable generation in Australia is itself a difficult prospect.

    5. Economic and political turmoil

    Recent turmoil in global markets has made companies more cautious about investing outside their core business. And global inflation has helped drive up the cost of electricity needed to produce green hydrogen.

    Globally, governments have scrambled to keep national economies afloat, which has led to cuts in green hydrogen in several countries.

    In Australia, green hydrogen is still key to the Albanese government’s Future Made in Australia policy. And hydrogen has been a rare area of agreement between the two major parties, at both federal and state levels.

    But there are signs this is changing. The federal opposition last year fought the government’s hydrogen tax credits, and the withdrawal of support for the Central Queensland Hydrogen Hub came from the Queensland LNP government, which won office in October last year.

    What next?

    There is a long road ahead if green hydrogen is to help Australia reach its goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.

    So what have we learned so far?

    Many scrapped projects tried to implement a “hub” model – combining multiple users in one place, which was designed to make it more attractive to suppliers. But this was difficult to co-ordinate, and vulnerable to changing global conditions.

    The green hydrogen industry should focus on the most promising uses for its product. For example, if it could successfully make enough green hydrogen to supply ammonia production, it could build on this to eventually support a bigger industry, such as iron-making.

    It’s also time to rethink how subsidies are structured, to reflect the fact some sectors are better bets than others. At present, the federal government’s Hydrogen Headstart program and the hydrogen tax credit are agnostic as to how the hydrogen is used, which does little to help demand emerge in the right places.

    Finally, political unity must be renewed. Hydrogen projects require a lot of capital, and investors get nervous when an industry does not have bipartisan support.

    The hype around green hydrogen in Australia is fading. There are some reasons for hope – but success will require a lot of hard work.

    Since 2008, the Grattan Institute has been supported by government, corporations, and philanthropic gifts. A full list of supporters is published at www.grattan.edu.au.

    – ref. What’s happened to Australia’s green hydrogen dream? Here are 5 reasons the industry has floundered – https://theconversation.com/whats-happened-to-australias-green-hydrogen-dream-here-are-5-reasons-the-industry-has-floundered-260634

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Even a day off alcohol makes a difference – our timeline maps the health benefits when you stop drinking

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicole Lee, Adjunct Professor at the National Drug Research Institute (Melbourne based), Curtin University

    d3sign/Getty

    Alcohol has many negative effects on our health, some of which may surprise you. These include short-term impacts such as waking up with a pounding head or anxiety, to long-term effects including cancer.

    If you are thinking about taking some time off alcohol, you’ll find many quick wins and long-term gains for your health.

    How long will you have to wait to feel the benefits?

    We’ve made a timeline – based on scientific research – that shows what you might feel in the first days, weeks, months and years after taking a break from alcohol.

    Some benefits start immediately, so every day without alcohol is a win for your health.

    After one day

    Alcohol takes around 24 hours to completely leave your body, so you may start noticing improvements after just one day.

    Alcohol makes you need to urinate more often, causing dehydration. But your body can absorb a glass of water almost immediately, so once alcohol is out of your system alcohol dehydration is reduced, improving digestion, brain function and energy levels.

    Alcohol also reduces the liver’s ability to regulate blood sugar. Once alcohol leaves the system, blood sugar begins to normalise.

    If you are a daily drinker you may feel a bit worse to start with while your body adjusts to not having alcohol in its system all the time. You may initially notice disrupted sleep, mood changes, sweating or tremors. Most symptoms usually resolve in about a week without alcohol.

    After one week

    Even though alcohol can make you feel sleepy at first, it disrupts your sleep cycle. By the end of an alcohol-free week, you may notice you are more energetic in the mornings as a result of getting better quality sleep.

    As the body’s filter, the liver does much of the heavy lifting in processing alcohol and can be easily damaged even with moderate drinking.

    The liver is important for cleaning blood, processing nutrients and producing bile that helps with digestion.

    But it can also regenerate quickly. If you have only mild damage in the liver, seven days may be enough to reduce liver fat and heal mild scarring and tissue damage.

    Even small amounts of alcohol can impair brain functioning. So quitting can help improve brain health within a few days in light to moderate drinkers and within a month even for very heavy dependent drinkers.

    Alcohol damages your liver, but it’s very good at regenerating and healing itself.
    skynesher/Getty

    After one month

    Alcohol can make managing mood harder and worsen symptoms of anxiety and depression. After a few weeks, most people start to feel better. Even very heavy drinkers report better mood after one to two months.

    As your sleep and mood improve you may also notice more energy and greater wellbeing.

    After a month of abstinence regular drinkers also report feeling more confident about making changes to how they drink.

    You may lose weight and body fat. Alcohol contains a lot of kilojules and can trigger hunger reward systems, making us overeat or choose less healthy foods when drinking.

    Even your skin will thank you. Alcohol can make you look older through dehydration and inflammation, which can be reversed when you quit.

    Alcohol irritates the gut and disrupts normal stomach functioning, causing bloating, indigestion, heartburn and diarrhoea. These symptoms usually start to resolve within four weeks.

    One month of abstinence, insulin resistance – which can lead to high blood sugar – significantly reduces by 25%. Blood pressure also reduces (by 6%) and cancer-related growth factors declines, lowering your risk of cancer.

    After six months

    The liver starts to repair within weeks. For moderate drinkers, damage to your liver could be fully reversed by six months.

    At this point, even heavy drinkers may notice they’re better at fighting infections and feel healthier overall.

    Just a month without alcohol can you make more confident about sticking to changes.
    Yue_/Getty

    After one year or more

    Alcohol contributes to or causes a large number of chronic diseases, including heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, and seven different types of cancer, as well as mental health issues. All of these risks can be reduced by quitting or cutting back on alcohol.

    Alcohol increases blood pressure. High blood pressure (hypertension) is the top risk factor for death in the world. A small 2mmHg increase in blood pressure above the normal range (120mmHG) increases death from stroke by 10% and from coronary artery disease by 7%.

    Cutting back on alcohol to less than two drinks a day can reduce blood pressure significantly, reducing risk of stroke and heart disease. Reducing blood pressure also reduces risk of kidney disease, eye problems and even erectile dysfunction.

    With sustained abstinence, your risk of getting any type of cancer drops. One study looked at cancer risk for more than 4 million adults over three to seven years and found the risk of alcohol-related cancer dropped by 4%, even for light drinkers who quit. Reducing from heavy to moderate drinking reduced alcohol-related cancer risk by 9%.

    Making a change

    Any reduction in drinking will have some noticeable and immediate benefits to your brain and general health. The less you drink and the longer you go between drinks, the healthier you will be.

    Whether you aim to cut back or quit entirely, there are some simple things you can do to help you stick with it:

    If you are still wondering about whether to make changes or not you can check your drinking risk here.

    If you have tried to cut back and found it difficult you may need professional help. Call the National Alcohol and other Drug Hotline on 1800 250 015 and they will put you in touch with services in your area that can help. You can also talk to your GP.

    We would like to thank Dr Hannah MacRae for assistance in identifying the research used in this article.

    Nicole Lee works as a paid evaluation and training consultant in alcohol and other drugs. She has previously been awarded grants by state and federal governments, NHMRC and other public funding bodies for alcohol and other drug research. She is CEO of Hello Sunday Morning.

    Dr Katinka van de Ven is the Research Manager of Hello Sunday Morning. She also works as a paid evaluation and training consultant in alcohol and other drugs. Katinka has previously been awarded grants by state governments and public funding bodies for alcohol and other drug research.

    – ref. Even a day off alcohol makes a difference – our timeline maps the health benefits when you stop drinking – https://theconversation.com/even-a-day-off-alcohol-makes-a-difference-our-timeline-maps-the-health-benefits-when-you-stop-drinking-249272

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘You become a target’: research shows why many people who experience racism don’t report it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mario Peucker, Associate Professor and Principal Research Fellow, Institute for Sustainable Industries and Liveable Cities, Victoria University

    The way racism manifests itself may have changed over time, but it remains a persistent problem in Australia.

    The 2024 Reconciliation Barometer found a significant increase in racism against First Nations people. Antisemitism and Islamophobia have also been on the rise.

    Many other migrant communities and their Australian-born descendants continue to face racial discrimination, abuse and systemic marginalisation.

    And yet the true picture of racism in Australia is hard to determine, as a lot of racism goes unreported. Our soon to be published research reveals people often don’t know how to come forward, are scared of negative consequences, or simply don’t think anything would change if they did report it.

    Unheard voices

    The silencing of those who have experienced racism manifests in various ways, including the sceptical, at times hostile public reactions to those who speak out publicly.

    But our research, funded by VicHealth and accepted for publication by the journal Ethnic and Racial Studies, analysed how inadequate formal reporting pathways can mean people don’t come forward about their experiences.

    We conducted a survey of more than 700 people, then focus groups with almost 160 people. In total, we examined the experiences of 859 Victorian adults from culturally or racially marginalised communities.

    The vast majority of them – 76% of the survey respondents – had experienced racism in Australia, across many areas of life. These experiences happened at work, in shopping centres, on public transport and on the streets. Some also encountered racism in schools, healthcare, housing, online or when dealing with police.

    But crucially, only 15.5% of them had ever reported any such incident to an organisation.

    Unsurprisingly, one of the reasons why people do not report is that many are not aware of existing reporting options, for example through the federal or states’ human rights commissions.

    For 75.2% of survey respondents, not knowing where and how to report was a key barrier. The only place most people knew about was the police, which was often not seen as appropriate unless the incident involved physical violence.

    Moreover, trust in an effective response by police was generally low. A Muslim woman in one of the focus groups said:

    the biggest reason [for not reporting] is probably not knowing. The obvious is the police station, but then, well, many of us already feel that police won’t do much. But what else is out there?

    High cost, low reward

    An even bigger obstacle is that reporting racism was commonly considered high-cost, but low-reward. Most participants (83.2%) were deterred by the conviction that the process was taking too much time and effort.

    As one Asian-Australian participant stated:

    I imagine the reporting to be a long process. Do I want to go through the process, especially as a migrant. You ask yourself: is it life and death? If not, let me just get on with my day.

    Many highlighted concerns they would not be taken seriously (75.9%) or that reporting would have negative consequences for them or their children (72.8%). They were also concerned about how reporting could negatively affect their career, treatment at school or even their legal resident status.

    An African-Australian man said:

    You know you’re gonna be a double victim. Let’s say at your workplace, if you report racism, straight away […] you become a target.

    No accountability

    These factors shape the discouraging perspective that reporting is a high-cost action.

    But what makes it even worse is the very common conviction, expressed by 90.6% of survey respondents, that “nothing would change” even if they were to report, and that there was no accountability for racist behaviour.

    A Somali-born mother, whose daughter was called a racist slur by her teacher, complained to the school principal, but “he didn’t do anything”. She said her kids and their friends “all agreed that no one would do anything about this”. She said:

    They have this belief that if they make a complaint, it will not go anywhere. They all said the same thing: If you go somewhere, no one will care.

    Another survey participant said reporting racism would have to be worth the effort:

    We need to know that the mental and emotional sacrifice of reporting will be worth it, that it will result in an outcome. Why would I report racism if nothing will be done?

    ‘Don’t rock the boat’

    In addition, there are other psychological factors at play.

    Of those surveyed, 70.1% explained they refrain from reporting because they don’t want to “cause trouble”. In the focus groups, participants often spoke about not wanting to “rock the boat” or refraining from “talking bad, talking about racism because they might hate us”.

    Similarly, others are so determined to “blend in” they feel they have to accept racism. A Chinese-Australian participant explained her community wouldn’t complain because:

    we want to, and try to, fit in. And we have come to accept a little bit of tough treatment.

    Even protecting the perpetrators of racism from harm was described by some as a reason for not reporting:

    I thought by reporting I would hurt her [the perpetrator], and in our culture, we should not be hurting another person.

    What can be done?

    Our research shows racism often goes undetected and unreported due to systemic and cultural barriers. As a result, injustice remains unchallenged and normalised.

    But communities are finding alternative ways of speaking out against racism, often outside formal reporting channels.

    Following our research, for example, three local community-led anti-racism support networks have been set up in parts of Victoria to complement the existing support and reporting system.

    These networks provide trusted and culturally safe spaces and support to those who face racism. They have started to systematically document racism, working towards local evidence that can be used to raise awareness and inform targeted anti-racism actions in the future.

    Networks like these could be introduced around the country to give people more options to come forward.

    We won’t be able to properly address racism while those experiencing it think they won’t be listened to. We all need to ensure racist incidents are taken seriously, responded to promptly and that people are heard.

    Mario Peucker receives funding from the Victorian Government and VicHealth.

    Franka Vaughan receives funding from VicHealth

    Jo Doley received funding from VicHealth.

    Tom Clark receives funding from VicHealth.

    – ref. ‘You become a target’: research shows why many people who experience racism don’t report it – https://theconversation.com/you-become-a-target-research-shows-why-many-people-who-experience-racism-dont-report-it-260092

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Cycling can be 4 times more efficient than walking. A biomechanics expert explains why

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Blazevich, Professor of Biomechanics, Edith Cowan University

    You’re standing at your front door, facing a five kilometre commute to work. But you don’t have your car, and there’s no bus route. You can walk for an hour – or jump on your bicycle and arrive in 15 minutes, barely breaking a sweat. You choose the latter.

    Many people would make the same choice. It’s estimated that there are more than a billion bikes in the world. Cycling represents one of the most energy-efficient forms of transport ever invented, allowing humans to travel faster and farther while using less energy than walking or running.

    But why exactly does pedalling feel so much easier than pounding the pavement? The answer lies in the elegant biomechanics of how our bodies interact with this two-wheeled machine.

    A wonderfully simple machine

    At its heart, a bicycle is wonderfully simple: two wheels (hence “bi-cycle”), pedals that transfer power through a chain to the rear wheel, and gears that let us fine-tune our effort. But this simplicity masks an engineering that perfectly complements human physiology.

    When we walk or run, we essentially fall forward in a controlled manner, catching ourselves with each step. Our legs must swing through large arcs, lifting our heavy limbs against gravity with every stride. This swinging motion alone consumes a lot of energy. Imagine: how tiring would it be to even swing your arms continuously for an hour?

    On a bicycle, your legs move through a much smaller, circular motion. Instead of swinging your entire leg weight with each step, you’re simply rotating your thighs and calves through a compact pedalling cycle. The energy savings are immediately noticeable.

    But the real efficiency gains come from how bicycles transfer human power to forward motion. When you walk or run, each footstep involves a mini-collision with the ground. You can hear it as the slap of your shoe against the road, and you can feel it as vibrations running through your body. This is energy being lost, literally dissipated as sound and heat after being sent through your muscles and joints.

    Walking and running also involve another source of inefficiency: with each step, you actually brake yourself slightly before propelling forward. As your foot lands ahead of your body, it creates a backwards force that momentarily slows you down. Your muscles then have to work extra hard to overcome this self-imposed braking and accelerate you forward again.

    Kissing the road

    Bicycles use one of the world’s great inventions to solve these problems – wheels.

    Instead of a collision, you get rolling contact – each part of the tyre gently “kisses” the road surface before lifting off. No energy is lost to impact. And because the wheel rotates smoothly so the force acts perfectly vertically on the ground, there’s no stop-start braking action. The force from your pedalling translates directly into forward motion.

    But bicycles also help our muscles to work at their best. Human muscles have a fundamental limitation: the faster they contract, the weaker they become and the more energy they consume.

    This is the famous force-velocity relationship of muscles. And it’s why sprinting feels so much harder than jogging or walking – your muscles are working near their speed limit, becoming less efficient with every stride.

    Bicycle gears solve this problem for us. As you go faster, you can shift to a higher gear so your muscles don’t have to work faster while the bike accelerates. Your muscles can stay in their sweet spot for both force production and energy cost. It’s like having a personal assistant that continuously adjusts your workload to keep you in the peak performance zone.

    Cycling can be at least four times more energy-efficient than walking and eight times more efficient than running.
    The Conversation, CC BY

    Walking sometimes wins out

    But bicycles aren’t always superior.

    On very steep hills of more than about 15% gradient (so you rise 1.5 metres every 10 metres of distance), your legs struggle to generate enough force through the circular pedalling motion to lift you and the bike up the hill. We can produce more force by pushing our legs straight out, so walking (or climbing) becomes more effective.

    Even if roads were built, we wouldn’t pedal up Mount Everest.

    This isn’t the case for downhills. While cycling downhill becomes progressively easier (eventually requiring no energy at all), walking down steep slopes actually becomes harder.

    Once the gradient exceeds about 10% (it drops by one metre for every ten metres of distance), each downhill step creates jarring impacts that waste energy and stress your joints. Walking and running downhill isn’t always as easy as we’d expect.

    Not just a transportation device

    The numbers speak for themselves. Cycling can be at least four times more energy-efficient than walking and eight times more efficient than running. This efficiency comes from minimising three major energy drains: limb movement, ground impact and muscle speed limitations.

    So next time you effortlessly cruise past pedestrians on your morning bike commute, take a moment to appreciate the biomechanical work of art beneath you. Your bicycle isn’t just a transport device, but a perfectly evolved machine that works in partnership with your physiology, turning your raw muscle power into efficient motion.

    Anthony Blazevich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Cycling can be 4 times more efficient than walking. A biomechanics expert explains why – https://theconversation.com/cycling-can-be-4-times-more-efficient-than-walking-a-biomechanics-expert-explains-why-257120

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Bradbury Group features Palestinian journalist Yousef Aljamal, Middle East report and political panel

    Asia Pacific Report

    In the new weekly political podcast, The Bradbury Group, last night presenter Martyn Bradbury talked with visiting Palestinian journalist Dr Yousef Aljamal.

    They assess the current situation in Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza and what New Zealand should be doing.

    As Bradbury, publisher of The Daily Blog, notes, “Fourth Estate public broadcasting is dying — The Bradbury Group will fight back.”


    Gaza crisis and Iran tensions.     Video: The Bradbury Group/Radio Waatea

    Also in last night’s programme was featured a View From A Far Podcast Special Middle East Report with former intelligence analyst Dr Paul Buchanan and international affairs commentator Selwyn Manning on what will happen next in Iran.

    Martyn Bradbury talks to Dr Paul Buchanan (left) and Selwyn Manning on the Iran crisis and the future. Image: Asia Pacific Report

    Political Panel:
    Māori Party president John Tamihere,
    NZ Herald columnist Simon Wilson
    NZCTU economist Craig Renney

    Topics:
    – The Legacy of Tarsh Kemp
    – New coward punch and first responder assault laws — virtue signalling or meaningful policy?
    – Cost of living crisis and the failing economy

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Author David Robie tells of outrage over sinking of the Rainbow Warrior 40 years ago

    RNZ News Nights

    Tomorrow marks 40 years since the bombing and sinking of the Rainbow Warrior — a moment that changed the course of New Zealand’s history and reshaped how we saw ourselves on the world stage.

    Two French agents planted two explosives on the ship, then just before midnight, explosions ripped through the hull killing photographer, Fernando Pereira and sinking the 47m ex-fishing trawler.

    The attack sparked outrage across the country and the world, straining diplomatic ties between New Zealand and France and cementing the country’s anti-nuclear stance.

    Few people are more closely linked to the ship than author and journalist Dr David Robie, who spent eleven weeks on board during its final voyage through the Pacific, and wrote the book, Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior, which is being published tomorrow. He joins Emile Donovan.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Author David Robie tells of outrage over sinking of the Rainbow Warrior 40 years ago

    RNZ News Nights

    Tomorrow marks 40 years since the bombing and sinking of the Rainbow Warrior — a moment that changed the course of New Zealand’s history and reshaped how we saw ourselves on the world stage.

    Two French agents planted two explosives on the ship, then just before midnight, explosions ripped through the hull killing photographer, Fernando Pereira and sinking the 47m ex-fishing trawler.

    The attack sparked outrage across the country and the world, straining diplomatic ties between New Zealand and France and cementing the country’s anti-nuclear stance.

    Few people are more closely linked to the ship than author and journalist Dr David Robie, who spent eleven weeks on board during its final voyage through the Pacific, and wrote the book, Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior, which is being published tomorrow. He joins Emile Donovan.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Not just a few bad apples: The Canadian Armed Forces has a nagging far-right problem

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Stéphane Leman-Langlois, Professor, School of Social Work and Criminology, Université Laval

    The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) is making headlines. But not, as they probably hoped, for the renewed recruiting efforts they’re about to launch. Instead, they are once again confounded by a far-right scandal.

    The latest episode is the arrest of four CAF members and ex-members. Three of them have been charged with taking concrete steps to facilitate terrorist activity and possessing prohibited firearms. A fourth man was charged with possession and storage of prohibited firearms and devices.

    The crew had allegedly been under surveillance by the federal government’s Integrated National Security Enforcement Team since 2021, most likely when equipment, weapons and ammunition began to go missing from military installations. The weapons were finally seized in January 2024, some in the personal vehicle of one of the suspects, but the group remained free for another 18 months.



    Read more:
    Charges against Canadian Army members in anti-government terror plot raise alarms about right-wing extremism

    As is usual with these types of efforts, a certain degree of amateurism was present at multiple stages of the alleged scheme, which may have developed on the fly. The idea that a micro-militia might successfully seize and hold territory in Canada is far-fetched at best.

    Recruitment efforts for the suspected mission, complete with propaganda and self-aggrandizing pictures of military training, took place on, you guessed it: Instagram. (We won’t publish the name of the account.)

    It might be pointed out that any large organization like the CAF inevitably represents a microcosm of society, meaning that it can’t be expected to be free of various forms of undesirable behaviour, including political extremism. But this “rotten apple” theory of far-right extremism in the CAF falls somewhat short of explaining the situation.

    Not just a ‘few rotten apples’

    First, the rotten apples seem too numerous. Just days before the recent arrests, the CAF announced on July 3 it was investigating the participation of other soldiers in a private Facebook page named the “Blue Hackle Mafia.” The page disseminated openly racist, homophobic, misogynist and antisemitic content.

    These events point to a phenomenon difficult to measure within western countries, even though it’s very real. The penetration of ideas associated with the far right within the military and law enforcement agencies is currently happening. Whether more or less structured, the emergence of underground small groups are more or less ready to “take action.”

    Second, previous reports have identified a general laissez-faire approach within the CAF regarding far-right activities. In a 2022 independent report commissioned by the CAF, the presence of white supremacist and other far-right ideologies was identified not only as a growing problem for the Army, but also one that was not being addressed.

    Similar conclusions were reached in the 1997 report on the behaviour of Canadian soldiers in Somalia, which had explicitly recommended that “the Canadian Forces establish regular liaison with anti-racist groups to obtain assistance in the conduct of appropriate cultural sensitivity training and to assist supervisors and commanders in identifying signs of racism and involvement with hate groups.” In other words, neither the concern nor the awareness is news.

    Affinity between far right and military

    At the root of the problem is a peculiar affinity between most forms of far-right ideologies and military or paramilitary/policing organizations.

    It’s absurd to simply paint such organizations as inherently far right in their nature, of course. But strict authority structures and notions of defence, fellowship, honour — as well as the projection of power through physical strength and training and the accompanying symbolism of weapons, fatigues, uniforms and campaign-like deployments — are all very appealing to far-right extremists.

    This nexus has been amply documented and leads to multiple practical implications: extremist groups trying to recruit active or retired soldiers; soldiers joining existing groups or setting up their own; veterans joining existing groups or creating their own, like the founders of Québec’s La Meute; professionally trained lone wolves, like Correy Hurren, who attempted to “arrest” Prime minister Justin Trudeau at Rideau Hall in 2020)

    Members of extremist groups also routinely try to join the military to benefit from training, which elevates their standing within the group.

    Military, former and active, and law enforcement members are to be found in multiple “militia” groups like the Three Percenters, the Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers, Diagolon and the Boogaloo movement, for instance. Some are overtly anti-government and/or anti-system, like the Veterans 4 Freedom or The Base.

    Far-right demons

    It may sound strange to think of military personnel or veterans getting involved or creating an anti-government movement when they’ve served under the flag sometimes for decades. The apparent paradox quickly disappears once we understand the manifold individual motivations that underpin their actions.

    They range from the feeling of having served a timourous government that failed to make proper use of the Armed Forces at its disposal. The absence of deployments to theatres of conflict also generates frustration among some in search of military adventure.

    A lot of young men are quickly bored with exercises that never satisfy their expeditionary spirit. The role of camaraderie, of group dynamics based on mutual aid, honour and the presence of danger, as well as mental health issues, must not be overlooked. Not to mention the idea, strong in some units, of defending a singular idea of a “fatherland” endangered by government contempt and inaction.

    What is striking in the light of the recent charges in Québec is not so much the racist and anti-semitic ideological ideas allegedly held by the accused group members. It’s the primacy given to a patriarchal ideology that explicitly targets women and gender. Fascination with Russia and the war in Ukraine waged by Vladimir Putin is also palpable.

    In short, the CAF is still wrestling with far-right demons, though in a new context of social media acceleration and global loss of confidence in democratic institutions. The situation has a high potential to undermine confidence in Canada’s Armed Forces at a time when geopolitical tensions are calling for a strengthening of its military arsenal, and first and foremost, our military human capital.

    Stéphane Leman-Langlois receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    Samuel Tanner receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    Aurélie Campana does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Not just a few bad apples: The Canadian Armed Forces has a nagging far-right problem – https://theconversation.com/not-just-a-few-bad-apples-the-canadian-armed-forces-has-a-nagging-far-right-problem-260896

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Want more orgasms? Choose a woman partner

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Caroline Pukall, Professor, Department of Psychology, Queen’s University, Ontario

    Being partnered with a woman is associated with an orgasm advantage. (Pexels/Cottonbro)

    The orgasm gap — the consistent finding that men who have sex with women have more frequent orgasms than women who have sex with men — has been shown in study after study of cisgender, heterosexual participants.

    The gap is a big one: Based on a recent Canadian study, approximately 60 per cent of women and 90 per cent of men reported reaching orgasm in their most recent sexual encounter.

    In sexually diverse samples (samples that also include women who have sex with women and men who have sex with men), the pattern becomes more nuanced but still supports a gendered orgasm gap.

    Research has shown that women who have sex with women have a more equal frequency of orgasms within their partnership.
    (Pexels/Ketut Subiyanto)

    Research has shown that the gap in orgasm frequency is reduced (in other words, there is more equal orgasm frequency) in women who have sex with women (about 75 per cent), and this rate is significantly higher than in women who have sex with men (about 62 per cent). However, men as a group — regardless of who they were having sex with — still had significantly higher orgasm frequency (85 per cent) than women overall (63 per cent). Women are orgasm-disadvantaged overall and especially when they have sex with men.

    Mind the gap

    How far-reaching is the orgasm gap and what factors might be standing in the way of orgasms for all? We — a team of researchers and science journalists from the podcast Science Vs — examined orgasm frequency in a large diverse sample that included sexual (such as lesbian) and gender (such as trans) minorities and majorities, as well as racialized participants (there were no significant results with analyses focused on sexual orientation or race).

    The good news? We found that many people overall were having lots of orgasms — about two-thirds reported having orgasms almost or every time they engaged sexually.

    The not-so-great news? The orgasm gap persisted: cis men overall reported the highest orgasm frequency compared to women and gender minorities (who did not differ significantly from each other). In addition, we found that participants of all genders who engaged sexually with women reported significantly more frequent orgasms than those who engaged sexually with men. So being partnered with a woman is associated with an orgasm advantage.

    More not-so-great news was that about 17 per cent of participants reported almost never or never having orgasms during sex and that there were many factors preventing orgasms in participants. For cis women, psychological barriers — such as insecurities, mental health struggles and distractions — were prominent, as were sexual obstacles (like not receiving adequate stimulation), difficulties inherent in having orgasms (for example, they take too long and require too much effort) and not knowing why orgasms are difficult for them to have.

    Closing the gap

    So why does the orgasm gap exist and persist? One main reason is that broad sociocultural norms prioritize men’s sexual pleasure over women’s. Indeed, these norms develop from the traditional (heterosexual, western) sexual script that defines the end of sexual activity as male orgasm; importantly, women’s adherence to this script has been associated with lower sexual satisfaction.

    Women’s own degree of familiarity with their partner has also been shown to be critical in narrowing the gap.
    (Unsplash/Jonathan Borba)

    Another is that mainstream media feeds into narratives of sexual expectations based on gender, such that portrayals of women who do not have orgasms are much more — even readily — acceptable than portrayals of orgasmless men. This inequality is played out in sexual encounters, perpetuating the gap and contributing to complacency in addressing it.

    But there is hope: Heterosexual men’s motivation to bring their partner to orgasm and their intentional incorporation of sexual activities that increase the chance of orgasm for their partner — such as clitoral stimulation and oral sex — can help narrow (and even eradicate!) the gap. Women’s own degree of familiarity with their partner has also been shown to be help narrow the gap. Higher familiarity (think of a long-term situationship as opposed to a casual hookup) was associated with higher orgasm frequency.

    The simple act of prioritizing women’s orgasm — captured with an easy-to-remember phrase of “she comes first” — may be all that is needed to substantially narrow the orgasm gap.

    Caroline Pukall receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the International Society for the Study of Women’s Sexual Health, and Queen’s University.

    – ref. Want more orgasms? Choose a woman partner – https://theconversation.com/want-more-orgasms-choose-a-woman-partner-259655

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Canada’s proposed east-west energy corridors should prioritize clean energy

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Andy Hira, Professor of Political Science, Simon Fraser University

    Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has made establishing east-west energy corridors a priority for Canada. He suggested that such corridors would include new oil and natural gas pipelines, designed to reduce dependence on the United States.

    Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson has gone even further in pushing for subsidization of carbon capture and storage projects that would effectively underwrite the long-term continuation of the fossil fuel industry at taxpayer expense.

    While there might be short-term political reasons for backing fossil fuels, such an approach goes against Canada’s long-term interests. Prioritizing fossil fuels undermines the country’s commitments to reduce emissions and takes away the investment needed for it to realize its potential to become a green energy superpower.

    Creating energy corridors is in the national interest, and would allow Canada to take full advantage of its abundant and diverse energy and mineral resources. The government also needs to be involved, as the corridors are interprovincial and will require substantial investment. However, the government has limited resources and so Canada must think strategically about its priorities for such corridors.

    Canadian taxpayers should not be subsidizing an already lucrative oil and gas industry. Instead, the federal government should prioritize funding clean energy supply solutions.

    Oil and gas subsidies

    Canadian governments have long faced opposition to building new pipelines. The provinces of Québec and British Columbia and many First Nations have strongly opposed new pipeline proposals. More recently, there is some signs of softening under the duress of U.S. tariffs.

    Even if such shifts are lasting, it’s for the private sector to step up and invest into these projects. Previous federal investments, such as the Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX), were reflections of the private market’s unwillingness to invest in pipelines because they are bad investments. The 2024 Parliamentary Budget Office report estimated that selling the TMX would result in a loss.

    There are reasons to question the soundness of fossil fuels on a purely financial basis. A 2022 Parliamentary budget office report found that climate change reduced GDP by 0.8 per cent in 2021, or around $20 billion. This number is expected to rise to 5.8 per cent per year by 2100 (or $145 billion in 2021 dollars).

    By contrast, from 2017 to 2021, federal, provincial and territorial governments received an average of $12 billion annually in revenues from the the oil and gas industry.

    The gap between the costs and benefits is only going to increase over time. The costs cut across all aspects of life, including food security, health care, global instability and threats to coastal cities due to sea level rise.

    On the other hand, every dollar invested in adaptation today has an estimated return of $13-$15.

    Furthermore, a recent study indicates a likely glut in global natural gas markets, and the future prospects for oil are equally questionable. For example, one of Canada’s target markets, Japan, has been reselling its liquefied natural gas imports to other countries, suggesting the glut of oil and gas is likely to continue as cheaper producers, including those in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, who are cheaper and closer to consumers, flood the market.

    Cheaper and closer oil producers are also flooding markets in anticipation of declining prices.

    There are important opportunity costs of investing money in fossil fuels that could otherwise be invested in the clean energy economy. When new technologies arise, there is a limited window of opportunity for global competitors to enter into an emerging industry.

    In light of the shift to electric vehicles, heat pumps and artificial intelligence, it’s clear that energy demand is bound to increase significantly in Canada in the coming years. Canada can become a global competitor, but only if it enters the race now, while the window is open.

    An East-West clean energy system

    Solar and wind prices have declined by 83 per cent and 65 per cent respectively since 2009. However, they suffer from the fundamental issue of intermittency; the sun is not always shining and the wind isn’t always blowing.

    While battery prices are declining, they remain an expensive solution. An easier solution is at hand: Canada’s hydroelectric resources. Québec, B.C. and Manitoba have abundant hydro resources that can reduce energy costs throughout the rest of the country.

    Alberta and Saskatchewan have potential for significant geothermal power generation. Ontario and the Atlantic provinces could contribute wind and solar. Trading electricity through an integrated national grid increases the investment capital and reduces the need for batteries while diversifying the energy mix.

    But we need an east-west electricity market to make this happen.

    An east-west grid would reduce the need for every province to run its own power generation system. Creating a pooled market would allow provinces to trade electricity, giving consumers more choice and investors a larger market and potential return on their investment.

    More valuable still is the fact that electricity capacity has to be built for the few peak hours and seasons. But most of the time demand is well below full capacity, such as the middle of the night or early summer, when neither heat nor air conditioning is needed in many areas. As peak times and seasons vary across the country, Canada can reduce overall costs by trading the electricity in the lowest cost producing province at a given time to where it’s needed in the other.

    By locating some of the new clean energy in First Nations, Canada can also move reconciliation forward. There is potential for a win-win situation whereby Canada increases renewable energy generation while creating new jobs and income for First Nations wherever feasible.

    The first step is for regulatory reform across the provinces to support a Canada-wide electricity market, and to provide the funding for the massive infrastructure investment required to connect provincial grids. This would be a federal investment with incredible long-term payoffs for employment, taxpayers and future generations.

    Following this plan could truly make Canada an energy superpower on the right side of the energy transition, create thousands of jobs and give the country a global competitive edge — all while helping to save the planet in the process.

    This article was co-authored by energy consultant Sheldon Fernandes.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Canada’s proposed east-west energy corridors should prioritize clean energy – https://theconversation.com/canadas-proposed-east-west-energy-corridors-should-prioritize-clean-energy-259530

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Lemurs can help save Madagascan forests, but first we need to protect them

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Colombe Nirina Sehenomalala, PhD candidate, Anthropology, Université de Montréal

    Most people’s encounters with lemurs have occurred through their representations in popular children’s media, like Zoboomafoo or Madagascar. However, most people don’t know that lemurs play an important role in forest renewal and that they’re currently in grave danger from climate change.

    In my home country of Madagascar, there is an amazing array of creatures that are not found anywhere else in the world. Madagascar is a biodiversity hotspot, and approximately 90 per cent of plant and animal species on this island are endemic.

    Among them are lemurs, a group of primates that are not only the flagship symbols of the island’s fauna, but also one of the key players in the health and stability of Madagascar’s ecosystems because they do the very important work of dispersing seeds.

    I am a primatologist who researches the interactions between infant-and-mother lemur dyads in wild. Their bond is a reminder of what we stand to lose, as it shows care, learning and viability. When forests disappear, so does this fragile bond, and a whole way of life we can never replace.

    Lemurs’ habitats and survival are increasingly being threatened by human activities such as deforestation, forest resource exploitation and hunting. There is an urgent need for conservation projects that involve local communities in preserving Madagascar’s unique biodiversity.

    A lemur trap encountered in the field during our research.
    (C.N. Sehenomalala), CC BY

    Charismatic animals

    Due to their charisma, media attention and their biological significance, lemurs attract tourists and researchers to Madagascar. The viability of lemurs is essential to the island’s future, both economically but especially in terms of protecting biodiversity. As they eat fruits from trees like ebony, mammea and wild coffee and then scatter seeds through their droppings, they help new plants grow.

    Among the 105 lemur species of Madagascar, Propithecus candidus, commonly known as the silky sifaka, is one of the most endangered species. Only around 250 of them are currently living in the wild.

    As their name implies, silky sifakas have visually striking long white hair, and they can only be found in the misty, mountainous rainforests of northeastern Madagascar.

    Silky sifakas are primarily active during the daytime, and can travel very quickly through the trees by vertically clinging to them and leaping from tree to tree using their powerful legs. They have highly specialized diets consisting of leaves, flowers and fruits like Diospyros pervilleana, a native ebony species from Madagascar.

    A BBC Nature documentary clip on silky sifakas.

    Observing mothers and infants

    I have spent 10 years studying and following lemurs daily. During my fieldwork in northeastern Madagascar, I closely observed how deforestation and habitat fragmentation affect silky sifaka females and their young.

    I studied these females during their lactation season in three different forest contexts: Marojejy National Park (a mostly untouched primary rainforest), Makira Natural Park (a mix of old-growth and re-generating forest) and Anjanaharibe-Sud Special Reserve (known as COMATSA-Sud, a primary forest with heavily degraded areas).

    At each forest, the forest canopy, which provides both shelter and food for the lemurs, measured above 10 metres at all sites, but was semi-open, which is a sign of habitat degradation. A semi-open canopy allows more light to permeate the forest canopy, but it also exposes animals to predators and decreases the quantity of high-quality food.

    Mothers’ movements and behaviours

    One clear difference between the three sites is how mother–infant pairs move and use space. In Marojejy, where the forest is more continuous even if the canopy is partly open, mothers and babies stay within fairly fixed areas, following the same paths and resting spots.

    But in places like Makira and COMATSA-Sud, where the forest is broken up into separate patches, mothers have to travel farther and more unpredictably, moving between these isolated patches. This extra travelling causes them to burn more energy and face higher risks from predators and hunters.

    These differences show that fragmentation doesn’t just affect food availability, but also changes how these lemurs move and survive.

    Forest fragmentation affects lemurs’ social behaviour and grouping patterns to deal with low food availability. It also impacts their health and development; a poor diet causes malnourishment in the lemurs.

    Lemurs are social animals, but scarce resources can cause competitive behaviours to emerge.
    (Simponafotsy/Wikimedia Commons), CC BY

    Poor nutritional quality

    While the food availability for silky sifakas in northeastern Madagascar during the lactation season is relatively abundant, it is of low nutritional quality.

    This leads to increased stress and competition as dominant lactating females, desperate to feed their infants, attack subordinates to accumulate more nutrients to produce higher quality milk.

    As offspring start to feed on non-milk foods, the poor nutritional quality of available plants after weaning can lead to poor health and stunted growth.

    Engaging the community

    The decline of lemur populations, particularly silky sifakas, shows the need for urgent conservation action. Continued monitoring — as well as sustained support and funding for Malagasy scientists — is crucial for long-term lemur and biodiversity conservation.

    When it comes to the effects of human activity, this decline — habitat fragmentation, global climate change and deforestation — is the result of large-scale activites such as extraction, tourism and state infrastructural development.

    Education and awareness campaigns are crucial, both in Madagascar and internationally, to inform people about lemurs’ habitat needs and what can be done to prevent their extinction.

    Conservation will never be successful without building an appreciation of the environmental, cultural and economic value of lemurs and the forests they inhabit.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Lemurs can help save Madagascan forests, but first we need to protect them – https://theconversation.com/lemurs-can-help-save-madagascan-forests-but-first-we-need-to-protect-them-256300

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Guineafowl can outsmart extreme temperatures: we spent a year finding out how

    Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Johann van Niekerk, Doctor, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of South Africa

    Have you ever wondered how wild birds cope with baking hot afternoons and freezing cold mornings? Our new study has taken a close look at one of Africa’s most familiar birds – the helmeted guineafowl – and uncovered surprising answers about how they deal with extreme temperatures.

    The helmeted guineafowl (Numida meleagris) is a common sight across sub-Saharan Africa’s savannas and semi-arid regions. They are instantly recognisable with their spotted plumage, bony helmet, bare blue head, and loud cackling calls. These birds are famously social, often seen roaming in noisy flocks.

    Helmeted guineafowl can endure air temperatures from -4°C up to 40°C in South Africa.

    The idea that animals huddle to stay warm – known as social thermoregulation – is well documented in mammals and birds like penguins. This theory proposes that animals huddle together to conserve heat in cold conditions, but is this what guineafowl are doing?

    Together with colleagues in Spain, we set out to find the answer because understanding whether birds group to keep warm or for other reasons helps ecologists uncover the true drivers of social behaviour. This can also inform how species will respond to changing climates and help guide conservation strategies.

    We studied a wild population of guineafowl in South Africa’s Madikwe Game Reserve, a protected area near the Botswana border. It’s known for its sharp daily temperature fluctuations during winter, with cold, frosty mornings dropping to 0°C and sweltering afternoons reaching up to 40°C.

    To spy on the birds without disturbing them, we set up a live-streaming webcam at a busy waterhole, recording their behaviour over an entire year. We watched how group size, body posture and daily routines shifted with the seasons and weather.

    What we found was striking.

    Our study challenges some common assumptions about how animals survive in extreme climates. Guineafowl don’t rely on cuddling for warmth like some penguins and some species of monkeys. Rather, they use behaviour – adjusting posture, timing their activity and changing group sizes according to food and safety needs – to navigate life’s temperature extremes.

    This strategy may help them cope with the growing unpredictability of climate.

    When they get together, it’s to exploit a food patch and nurture their offspring within close-knit social groups while foraging, or to fend off predators during coordinated mobbing behaviour.

    What we found

    The evidence we gathered shows that the guineafowl did not form bigger groups when temperatures dropped. There was no evidence they huddled together to stay warm. Even at night, when they roosted in trees, they perched in small family units – just two or three birds per branch.

    Our findings suggest that the reason guineafowl form groups has more to do with food and safety.

    During the dry winter months, when seeds and vegetation are scarce, the birds form large foraging flocks to help find food and stay safe from predators. More eyes mean better chances of spotting danger. This supports the widely recognised “many eyes” hypothesis, which shows that individuals in larger groups benefit from improved predator detection. But once the rains return and food becomes more plentiful and spread out, the guineafowl split into pairs or small groups to focus on breeding.

    While group size wasn’t tied to temperature, the birds used clever body postures to handle both heat and cold. On chilly mornings below 17°C, they puffed out their collar feathers and tucked their bare necks deep into their bodies, creating a rounded, fluffy ball that trapped heat.

    On warmer days, they stood tall with their necks fully extended, legs exposed, and feathers sleek to release excess heat. When temperatures soared above 30°C, they opened their beaks to pant, spread their wings slightly away from their bodies, and exposed bare skin to cool off, much as a dog pants on a hot day.

    One of the most delightful behaviours observed was “sunning”. On frosty winter mornings, guineafowl would fly down from their roosts and stand facing the rising sun, fluffing their feathers and soaking up warmth before starting their day. It’s a simple, effective way to heat up after a cold night.

    Another surprise was how rarely the birds drank water. Despite living in a dry environment, only about 2% of observed guineafowl visits were to the waterhole. In wet seasons, they likely get most of their moisture from eating green plants and insects. In the cold, dry season, when food is drier, drinking increased slightly, but still far less than expected.

    They drank even less when it was both hot and windy, possibly because the noise of the wind makes it harder to detect predators when standing out in the open. Avoiding water during hot periods is usual among helmeted guineafowl, which typically avoid exposing themselves during peak heat due to increased predation risk and the physiological stress of extreme temperatures. Most galliforms (gamebirds) and terrestrial species favour early morning or late afternoon activity patterns, limiting mid-day exposure.

    Every evening, the flock gathered at the same familiar “launching pad” near the waterhole and flew into nearby trees to roost. But once again, warmth wasn’t the reason for this behaviour. They roosted to avoid ground predators, not to share body heat. I have seen them for many years going into trees when predators or dogs chase them, unlike spurfowl and francolin just flying further on.

    Why insights are useful

    This research carries important lessons for understanding animal adaptation. Rather than relying on group warmth, guineafowl show how behavioural flexibility, adjusting posture, timing and habitat use, can buffer them against harsh conditions. It highlights how survival depends not just on temperature or water availability, but on having access to diverse habitat types: open grasslands for foraging and trees or dense bush for roosting and safety.

    As climates shift and ecosystems change, understanding how animals like guineafowl cope with extremes will be crucial for conservation planning.

    Johann van Niekerk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Guineafowl can outsmart extreme temperatures: we spent a year finding out how – https://theconversation.com/guineafowl-can-outsmart-extreme-temperatures-we-spent-a-year-finding-out-how-260439

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for July 13, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on July 13, 2025.

    New Caledonia’s political parties commit to ‘historic’ statehood deal
    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk New Caledonia’s pro-and-anti-independence parties have committed to an “historic” deal over the future political status of the French Pacific territory, which is set to become — for the first time — a “state” within the French realm. The 13-page agreement yesterday, officially entitled “Agreement Project of

    Twyford praises NFIP lead, calls for inspired peace and regionalism
    Asia Pacific Report An opposition Labour Party MP today paid tribute to the Nuclear Free and Independent Pacific (NFIP) movement, saying it should inspire Aotearoa New Zealand to maintain its own independence, embrace a strong regionalism, and be a “voice for peace and demilitarisation”. But Phil Twyford, MP for Te Atatu and spokesperson on disarmament,

    ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for July 12, 2025
    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on July 12, 2025.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for July 13, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on July 13, 2025.

    New Caledonia’s political parties commit to ‘historic’ statehood deal
    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk New Caledonia’s pro-and-anti-independence parties have committed to an “historic” deal over the future political status of the French Pacific territory, which is set to become — for the first time — a “state” within the French realm. The 13-page agreement yesterday, officially entitled “Agreement Project of

    Twyford praises NFIP lead, calls for inspired peace and regionalism
    Asia Pacific Report An opposition Labour Party MP today paid tribute to the Nuclear Free and Independent Pacific (NFIP) movement, saying it should inspire Aotearoa New Zealand to maintain its own independence, embrace a strong regionalism, and be a “voice for peace and demilitarisation”. But Phil Twyford, MP for Te Atatu and spokesperson on disarmament,

    ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for July 12, 2025
    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on July 12, 2025.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: New Caledonia’s political parties commit to ‘historic’ statehood deal

    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk

    New Caledonia’s pro-and-anti-independence parties have committed to an “historic” deal over the future political status of the French Pacific territory, which is set to become — for the first time — a “state” within the French realm.

    The 13-page agreement yesterday, officially entitled “Agreement Project of the Future of New Caledonia”, is the result of a solid 10 days of difficult negotiations between both pro and anti-independence parties.

    They have stayed under closed doors at a hotel in the small city of Bougival, in the outskirts of Paris.

    French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls (centre) shows signatures on the last page of New Caledonia’s new agreement. Image: RNZ Pacific/FB

    The talks were convened by French President Emmanuel Macron after an earlier series of talks held between February and May 2025 failed to yield an agreement.

    After opening the talks on July 2, Macron handed over them to his Minister for Overseas, Manuel Valls, to oversee. Valls managed to bring together all parties around the same table earlier this year.

    In his opening speech earlier this month, Macron insisted on the need to restore New Caledonia’s economy, which was brought to its knees following destructive and deadly riots that erupted in May 2024.

    He said France was ready to study any solution, including an “associated state” for New Caledonia.

    During the following days, all political players exchanged views under the seal of strict confidentiality.

    While the pro-independence movement, and its Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS), remained adamant they would settle for no less than “full sovereignty”, the pro-France parties were mostly arguing that three referendums — held between 2018 and 2021 — had already concluded that most New Caledonians wanted New Caledonia to remain part of France.

    Those results, they said, dictated that the democratic result of the three consultations be respected.

    Group photo of participants at the end of negotiations. Image: Philippe Gomes

    With this confrontational context, which resulted in an increasingly radicalised background in New Caledonia, that eventually led to the 2024 riots, the Bougival summit was dubbed the “last chance summit”.

    In the early hours of Saturday, just before 7 am (Paris time, 5 pm NZ time), after a sleepless night, the secrecy surrounding the Bougival talks finally ended with an announcement from Valls.

    He wrote in a release that all partners taking part in the talks had signed and “committed to present and defend the agreement’s text on New Caledonia’s future.”

    Valls said this was a “major commitment resulting from a long work of negotiations during which New Caledonia’s partners made the choice of courage and responsibility”.

    The released document, signed by almost 20 politicians, details what the deal would imply for New Caledonia’s future.

    In its preamble, the fresh deal underlines that New Caledonia was “once again betting on trust, dialogue and peace”, through “a new political organisation, a more widely shared sovereignty and an economic and social refoundation” for a “reinvented common destiny.”

    New Caledonia’s population will be called to approve the agreement in February 2026.

    If approved, the text would be the centrepiece of a “special organic law” voted by the local Congress.

    It would later have to be endorsed by the French Parliament and enshrined in an article of the French Constitution.

    What does the agreement contain?
     One of the most notable developments in terms of future status for New Caledonia is the notion of a “State of New Caledonia”, under a regime that would maintain it as part of France, but with a dual citizenship — France/New Caledonia.

    Another formulation used for the change of status is the often-used “sui generis”, which in legal Latin, describes a unique evolution, comparable to no other.

    This would be formalised through a fundamental law to be endorsed by New Caledonia’s Congress by a required majority of three-fifths.

    The number of MPs in the Congress would be 56.

    The text also envisages a gradual transfer of key powers currently held by France (such as international relations), but would not include portfolios such as defence, currency or justice.

    In diplomacy, New Caledonia would be empowered to conduct its own affairs, but “in respect of France’s international commitments and vital interests”.

    On defence matters, even though this would remain under France’s powers, it is envisaged that New Caledonia would be “strongly” associated, consulted and kept informed, regarding strategy, goals and actions led by France in the Pacific region.

    On police and public order matters, New Caledonia would be entitled to create its own provincial and traditional security forces, in addition to national French law enforcement agencies.

    New Caledonia’s sensitive electoral roll
     The sensitive issue of New Caledonia’s electoral roll and conditions of eligibility to vote at local elections (including for the three Provincial Assemblies) is also mentioned in the agreement.

    It was this very issue that was perceived as the main trigger for the May 2024 riots, the pro-independence movement feared at the time that changing the conditions to vote would gradually place the indigenous Kanak community in a position of minority.

    It is now agreed that the electoral roll would be partly opened to those people of New Caledonia who were born after 1998.

    The roll was frozen in 2007 and restricted to people born before 1998, which is the date the previous major autonomy agreement of Nouméa was signed.

    Under the new proposed conditions to access New Caledonia’s “citizenship”, those entitled would include people who already can vote at local elections, but also their children or any person who has resided in New Caledonia for an uninterrupted ten years or who has been married or lived in a civil de facto partnership with a qualified citizen for at least five years.

    Provincial elections once again postponed
     One of the first deadlines on the electoral calendar, the provincial elections, was to take place no later than 30 November 2025.

    It will be moved once again — for the third time — to May-June 2026.

    A significant part of the political deal is also dedicated to New Caledonia’s economic “refoundation”, with a high priority for the young generations, who have felt left out of the system and disenfranchised for too long.

    One of the main goals was to bring New Caledonia’s public debts to a level of sustainability.

    In 2024, following the riots, France granted, in the form of loans, over 1 billion euros (NZ $1.9 billion) for New Caledonia’s key institutions to remain afloat.

    But some components of the political chessboard criticised the measure, saying this was placing the French territory in a state of excessive and long-term debt.

    Group photo of participants at the end of negotiations with the signed agreement. Image: Philippe_Gomes/RNZ Pacific

    Strategic nickel
     A major topic, on the macro-economic side, concerns New Caledonia’s nickel mining industry, after years of decline that has left it (even before 2024) in a state of near-collapse.

    Nickel is regarded as the backbone of New Caledonia’s economy.

    A nickel “strategic plan” would aim at re-starting New Caledonia nickel’s processing plants, especially in the Northern province, but at the same time facilitating the export of raw nickel.

    There was also a will to ensure that all mining sites (many of which have been blocked and its installations damaged since the May 2024 riots) became accessible again.

    Meanwhile, France would push the European Union to include New Caledonia’s nickel in its list of strategic resources.

    New Caledonia’s nickel industry’s woes are also caused by its lack of competitiveness on the world market — especially compared to Indonesia’s recent rise in prominence in nickel production — because of the high cost of energy.

    Swift reactions, mostly positive

    New Caledonian politicians Sonia Backès (left to right), Nicolas Metzdorf, Gil Brial and Victor Tutugoro. Image: Nicolas Metzdorf/RNZ Pacific

    The announcement yesterday was followed by quick reactions from all sides of New Caledonia’s political spectrum and also from mainland France’s political leaders.

    French Prime Minister François Bayrou expressed “pride” to see an agreement “on par with history”, emerge.

    “Bravo also to the work and patience of Manuel Valls” and “the decisive implication of Emmanuel Macron,” he wrote on X-Twitter.

    From the ranks of New Caledonia’s political players, pro-France Nicolas Metzdorf said he perceived as one of the deal’s main benefits the fact that “we will at last be able to project ourselves in the future, in economic, social and societal reconstruction without any deadline.”

    Metzdorf admitted that reaching an agreement required concessions and compromise from both sides.

    “But the fact that we are no longer faced with referendums and to reinforce the powers of our provinces, this was our mandate”, he told public broadcaster NC La 1ère.

    “We’ve had to accept this change from New Caledonia citizenship to New Caledonian nationality, which remains to be defined by New Caledonia’s Congress. We have also created a completely new status as part of the French Republic, a sui generis State”, he noted.

    He said the innovative status kept New Caledonia within France, without going as far as an “associated state” mooted earlier.

    “At least, what we have arrived at is that New Caledonians remain French”, pro-France Le Rassemblement-LR prominent leader Virginie Ruffenach commented.

    “And those who want to contribute to New Caledonia’s development will be able to do so through a minimum stay of residence, the right to vote and to become citizens and later New Caledonia nationals”

    “I’m aware that some could be wary of the concessions we made, but let’s face it: New Caledonia nationality does not make New Caledonia an independent State . . . It does not take away anything from us, neither of us belonging to the French Republic nor our French nationality,” Southern Province pro-France President Sonia Backès wrote on social media.

    In a joint release, the two main pro-France parties, Les Loyalistes and Rassemblement-LR, said the deal was no less than “historic” and “perennial” for New Caledonia as a whole, to “offer New Caledonia a future of peace, stability and prosperity” while at the same time considering France’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

    From the pro-independence side, one of the negotiators, Victor Tutugoro of UNI-UPM (Progressist Union in Melanesia) said what mattered was that “all of us have placed our bets on intelligence, beyond our respective beliefs, our positions, our postures”.

    “We put all of these aside for the good of the country.”

    “Of course, by definition, a compromise cannot satisfy anyone 100 percent. But it’s a balanced compromise for everyone,” he said.

    “And it allows us to look ahead, to build New Caledonia together, a citizenship and this common destiny everyone’s been talking about for many years.”

    Before politicians fly back to New Caledonia to present the deal to their respective bases, President Macron received all delegation members last evening to congratulate them on their achievements.

    During the Presidential meeting at the Elysée Palace, FLNKS chief negotiator Emmanuel Tjibaou (whose father Jean-Marie Tjibaou also struck a historic agreement and shook hands with pro-France leader Jacques Lafleur, in 1988), stressed the agreement was one step along the path and it allows to envisage new perspectives for the Kanak people.

    A sign of the changing times, but in a striking parallel — 37 years after his father’s historic handshake with Lafleur, Emmanuel Tjibaou (whose father was shot dead in 1989 by a radical pro-independence partisan who felt the independence cause had been betrayed — did not shake hands, but instead fist pumped with pro-France’s Metzdorf.

    In a brief message on social networks, the French Head of State hailed the conclusive talks, which he labelled “A State of New Caledonia within the (French) Republic,” a win for a “bet on trust.”

    “Now is the time for respect, for stability and for the sum of good wills to build a shared future.”

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    Signatures on the last page of New Caledonia’s new agreement. Image: Philippe Dunoyer/RNZ Pacific

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: A wildfire’s legacy can haunt rivers for years, putting drinking water at risk

    Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Ben Livneh, Associate Professor of Hydrology, University of Colorado Boulder

    Burned ground can become hydrophobic and almost waxlike, allowing rainfall to quickly wash contaminants downslope. Carli Brucker

    A wildfire rages across a forested mountainside. The smoke billows and the flames rise. An aircraft drops vibrant red flame retardant. It’s a dramatic, often dangerous scene. But the threat is only just beginning for downstream communtiies and the water they rely on.

    After the smoke clears, the soil, which was once nestled beneath a canopy of trees and a spongy layer of leaves, is now exposed. Often, that soil is charred and sterile, with the heat making the ground almost water-repellent, like a freshly waxed car.

    When the first rain arrives, the water rushes downhill. It carries with it a slurry of ash, soil and contaminants from the burned landscape. This torrent flows directly into streams and then rivers that provide drinking water for communities downstream.

    As a new research paper my colleagues and I just published shows, this isn’t a short-term problem. The ghost of the fire can haunt these waterways for years.

    Scientists explain how wildfires can contaminate water supplies and the ways they measure the effects, summarized in their 2024 publication. University of Colorado-Boulder.

    This matters because forested watersheds are the primary water source for nearly two-thirds of municipalities in the United States. As wildfires in the western U.S. become larger and more frequent, the long-term security and safety of water supplies for downstream communities is increasingly at risk.

    Charting the long tail of wildfire pollution

    Scientists have long known that wildfires can affect water quality, but two key questions remained: Exactly how bad is the impact? And how long does it last?

    To find out, my colleagues and I led a study, coordinated by engineer Carli Brucker. We undertook one of the most extensive analyses of post-wildfire water quality to date. The results were published June 23, 2025, in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment.

    We gathered decades of water quality data from 245 burned watersheds across the western U.S. and compared them to nearly 300 similar, unburned watersheds.

    A map of the basins studied shows the outlines of fires in red and burned basins in black. The blue basins did not burn and were used for comparisons.
    Carli Brucker, et al., 2025, Nature Communications Earth & Environment

    By creating a computer model for each basin that accounted for its normal water quality variability, based on factors such as rainfall and temperature, we were able to isolate the impact of the wildfire. This allowed us to see how much the water quality deviated after the fire, year after year.

    The results were stark. In the first year after a fire, the concentrations of some contaminants skyrocketed. We found that levels of sediment and turbidity – the cloudiness of the water – were 19 to 286 times higher than prefire levels. That much sediment can clog filters at water treatment plants and require expensive treatment and maintenance. Think of trying to use a coffee filter with muddy water – the water just won’t flow through.

    Concentrations of organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus were three to 103 times greater in the burned basins. These dissolved remnants of burned plants and soil are particularly problematic. When they mix with the chlorine used to disinfect drinking water, they can form harmful chemicals called disinfection byproducts, some of which are linked to cancer.

    More surprisingly, we found the impacts to be really persistent. While the most dramatic spikes in phosphorous, nitrate, organic carbon and sediment generally occurred in the first one to three years, some contaminants lingered for much longer.

    Contaminants including phosphorus, organic carbon and nitrates lingered in water supplies for years after wildfires. The charts show the average among all burned basins eight years before fires (light blue) and all burned basins after fires (orange). The gray bars show levels in the year immediately after the fire. The horizontal purple line shows levels that would be expected without a fire, based on the prefire years.
    Carli Brucker, et al., 2025, Nature Communications Earth & Environment

    We saw significantly elevated levels of nitrogen and sediment for up to eight years following a fire. Nitrogen and phosphorus act like fertilizer for algae. A surge of these nutrients can trigger algal blooms in reservoirs, which can produce toxins and create foul odors.

    This extended timeline suggests that wildfires are fundamentally altering the landscape in ways that take a long time to heal. In our previous laboratory-based research, including a 2024 study, we simulated this process by burning soil and vegetation and then running water over them.

    After mountain slopes burn, the rain that falls on them washes ash, charred soil and debris downstream.
    Carli Brucker

    The stuff that leaches out is a cocktail of carbon, nutrients and other compounds that can exacerbate flood risks and degrade water quality in ways that require more expensive treatment at water treatment facilities. In extreme cases, the water quality may be so poor that communities can’t withdraw river water at all, and that can create water shortages.

    After the Buffalo Creek Fire in 1996 and then the Hayman Fire in 2002, Denver’s water utility spent more than US$27 million over several years to treat the water, remove more than 1 million cubic yards of sediment and debris from a reservoir, and fix infrastructure. State Forest Service crews planted thousands of trees to help restore the surrounding forest’s water filtering capabilities.

    A growing challenge for water treatment

    This long-lasting impact poses a major challenge for water treatment plants that make river water safe to drink. Our study highlights that utilities can’t just plan for a few bad months after a fire. They need to be prepared for potentially eight or more years of degraded water quality.

    We also found that where a fire burns matters. Watersheds with thicker forests or more urban areas that burned tended to have even worse water quality after a fire.

    Since many municipalities draw water from more than one source, understanding which watersheds are likely to have the largest water quality problems after fires can help communities locate the most vulnerable parts of their water supply systems.

    As temperatures rise and more people move into wildland areas in the American West, the risk of wildfires increases, and it is becoming clear that preparing for longer-term consequences is crucial. The health of forests and our communities’ drinking water are inseparably linked, with wildfires casting a shadow that lasts long after the smoke clears.

    Ben Livneh receives funding from the Western Water Assessment NOAA grant #NA21OAR4310309, ‘Western Water Assessment: Building Resilience to Compound Hazards in the Inter-Mountain West’.

    – ref. A wildfire’s legacy can haunt rivers for years, putting drinking water at risk – https://theconversation.com/a-wildfires-legacy-can-haunt-rivers-for-years-putting-drinking-water-at-risk-259118

    MIL OSI Analysis –