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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Google searches for information about cancer lead to targeted ads from alternative clinics

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Alessandro Marcon, Senior Research Associate at the Health Law Institute, University of Alberta

    Online searches for health information can pull up misleading ads. (S. Ghassimi), CC BY

    More than 80 per cent of online searches are now performed with Google. But there’s an insidious element to the world’s most popular search engine. As companies compete for the advertising spaces that accompany search query results, users seeking critical health information can be exposed to dangerous and exploitative misinformation.



    Read more:
    Why we fall for fake health information – and how it spreads faster than facts

    In 2024, North Americans overwhelmingly used Google for news and information on politics, celebrities, entertainment and topical events like natural disasters. Health-related queries are also popular: nearly 70 per cent of the Canadian public use online searches for health information.

    Google is the world’s most popular search engine.
    (Shutterstock)

    Online searches

    The phrases or questions contained in online searches serve as valuable data. They can inform epidemiological surveillance and provide insight into popular global and regional trends.

    These data also hold immense value for online marketing teams, tracking who is searching for what, where and when. In addition to search tracking, however, queries now are used for online advertising. It’s a reality that raises serious ethical, regulatory and public health issues.

    Before the internet, key advertising spaces existed in magazines and newspapers, on highway billboards and time slots between radio and television programming. Advertising is so lucrative that a 30-second time slot during the Super Bowl now costs upwards of US$8 million.

    Online, fixed slots have now been replaced by targeted advertisements to accompany search results, determined by search queries entered by users.

    Highly coveted spots

    Like a Super Bowl ad, advertising on Google’s first page results is highly coveted.

    Obtaining the rights to these space requires companies to outbid one another to win the ads spaces determined by search terms — an advertiser can purchase ad space from Google associated with a specific phrase or keyword.

    Companies with snack products, for example, may compete for their sponsored content to appear when individuals search for “Super Bowl party snacks,” “new chip flavours” or “chip and dip ideas.”

    As harmless and obvious — and perhaps even inevitable — as this marketing approach may seem, the practice is problematic when industry targets personal, sensitive and critical health terms — which is exactly what our research uncovered.

    Searches for cancer, exploitative ads

    Using the AI-driven marketing platform SemRush, we analyzed the search terms purchased for advertising by notorious alternative cancer clinics in Tijuana, Mexico and Arizona. We determined what queries were targeted and how much was spent on acquiring the advertising space matching these queries.

    We also assessed whether this spending increased traffic to their clinic websites. Our results showed that over roughly one decade, these clinics paid over an estimated US$15 million to purchase the ad spaces for thousands of search words and phrases.

    These search queries related to cancer prognosis and diagnosis, treatment options including alternative treatments and cancer types including late-stage cancer. In sum, the advertising strategy generated more than 6.5 million website visits for alternative cancer clinics.

    Alternative cancer treatments can interfere with the success of medical treatments.
    (Shutterstock)

    Negative health impacts

    Unfortunately, the success of these alternative clinics’ marketing strategies is nothing short of a disaster for the public’s health and well-being. Alternative cancer treatments are associated with an increased risk of death and offer false hope for those suffering from end-stage cancer.

    These ineffective and oftentimes dangerous treatments can financially exploit patients, disrupt end-of-life planning and interfere with evidence-based cancer or palliative treatments.

    Google is therefore enabling an advertising option that contributes to the harmful spread of inaccurate and damaging cancer misinformation that can directly lead to detrimental health-related actions.

    Protection from deception

    Our research focused entirely on the cancer context and analyzed the targeted search query approach of problematic clinics in two specific locations. It is imaginable — indeed very probable — that this approach is deployed in other health contexts and beyond.

    Google does have and enforce policies to protect users from deceptive advertising content. But there is little oversight regarding how advertisers may exploit its keyword ad matching features.

    It’s imperative that Google take action to restrict its ads mechanism from being used in this exploitative manner. Search results could give prominence only to websites supported by accurate scientific evidence. Google could prohibit the advertising purchase of ostensibly controversial search terms. This would include personal, sensitive queries from vulnerable groups, including patients suffering from cancer and other life-threatening ailments.

    Google and other social media platforms benefit financially from misinformation. It is up to these companies to decide if human health and well-being is more valuable than these financial gains. It is up to all of us to advocate for those harmed by dangerous misinformation.

    Alessandro Marcon works at the University of Alberta’s Health Law Institute, which has received funding related to this project from CIHR.

    Marco Zenone is the recipient of the Banting Postdoctoral Fellowship from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

    – ref. Google searches for information about cancer lead to targeted ads from alternative clinics – https://theconversation.com/google-searches-for-information-about-cancer-lead-to-targeted-ads-from-alternative-clinics-255372

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Fearful of reaching your next milestone age? A psychologist’s tips to combat the ‘birthday blues’

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jolanta Burke, Associate Professor, Centre for Positive Health Sciences, RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences

    DavideAngelini/Shutterstock

    Birthdays are typically seen as joyful events, filled with celebration, laughter and gifts. Yet it’s not uncommon, particularly if you are approaching a milestone age, to feel sad on your birthday.

    Birthdays can trigger painful emotions for anyone who may feel neglected, lonely, or disappointed about how their lives turned out to be. They are also reminders of ageing and mortality, and may bring feelings of grief for lost time or fear about the future.

    Milestone birthdays, such as turning 30 or 40, are even associated with particularly high instances of suicide, according to research from Japan. More people also die of stroke and a heart attack around their birthdays than on other days.

    All of these negative feelings, whether extreme depression or just feeling a bit disappointed, make up what’s sometimes known as the “birthday blues”.



    Read more:
    Fear of ageing is really a fear of the unknown – and modern society is making things worse

    One important factor influencing whether you will get the birthday blues is how satisfied you are with your life. Life satisfaction is the degree to which you feel your life aligns with your expectations, and whether you have met, exceeded or fallen short of your life goals.

    If you’re approaching a big birthday, you may feel susceptible to the comparison trap of social media, or feel self-conscious about where you are in life. Birthdays are an often unwelcome benchmark by which to measure how well we are doing at any given age.

    No one’s 20s and 30s look the same. You might be saving for a mortgage or just struggling to pay rent. You could be swiping dating apps, or trying to understand childcare. No matter your current challenges, our Quarter Life series has articles to share in the group chat, or just to remind you that you’re not alone.

    Read more from Quarter Life:

    Another important factor is whether you have a clear sense of meaning in your life. A clear sense of meaning is associated with greater wellbeing, while ongoing search for meaning is associated with mental health challenges.

    Milestone birthdays often prompt people to re-evaluate their meaning in life. This introspection may result in emotional distress, a decline in wellbeing or even suicidal thoughts – or, it can be a positive step into a new decade.

    Rewriting your birthday

    You might imagine what you would like your milestone birthday celebration to look like, but sometimes reality does not match up. Perhaps you imagined a big party, only to realise you don’t have the social circle to make it happen, or that friends are busy with work and other commitments. You may long for a quiet birthday with a partner and children, yet find yourself still living with your parents, or without a partner or family of your own.

    Here are some practical steps you can take to have a more positive approach to your birthday.

    1. Envision your best possible self

    My colleague and I once worked with a small group of women aged over 55 who struggled to look forward to their retirement. For many, their future felt uncertain, even frightening. To help them shift their mindset, we introduced an activity “Best Possible Self”.

    We encouraged participants to re-imagine their future, focusing on what could go well for them and setting up goals to make their vision come true. After three months, even those who dreaded talking about the future noted a significant increase in hopefulness. The activity reminded them that good times could still come.

    Writing about your best possible self for just 20 minutes a day over a few days, especially around your birthday, could help you re-imagine your future and nurture a sense of hope, no matter what stage of life you are in.

    It’s my party and I’ll cry if I want to.
    India Picture/Shutterstock

    2. Pick an alternative birthday setting or an activity

    Birthdays don’t have to be a big night out. Plan an activity or visit a place you genuinely enjoy and which brings you happiness or comfort. This could be a walk in a park, attending a theatre performance, or a cosy day at home.

    Instead of just going through the motions, focus on enhancing the emotional quality of the experience. Pick a park that holds a special meaning or memories for you, or plan some home-based activities that energise you, such as cooking your favourite meal, creating art or watching a movie you love.

    3. Practice mindful awareness

    Notice the sounds, smells and other sensations as you go through your day. Pay attention to the emotions that arise, whether it is joy, nostalgia or hope.

    Reflect on how your thoughts have changed as a result of this experience. Perhaps think about what you are grateful for, what you’ve achieved in the last year, how far you have come from more challenging times in the past or what your hopeful vision is towards the future.

    4. Express and reinforce your positive experiences

    Find meaningful ways to express yourself and record your birthday. This might be by writing an entry in a journal, calling someone and sharing your insights, or creating something, like a playlist, photo collage, or drawing to capture this moment.

    Fear of ageing is also about fear of the unknown. We can combat this by cultivating hope – recognising what is going well for us in life and believing in the possibility of better days ahead.

    To ease the pressure of having a “happy birthday”, it might help to aim instead for a more compassionate “hopeful birthday”. This mindset acknowledges the complexity of ageing, and leaves room for both celebration and vulnerability. In a world that demands constant positivity, where we’re expected to keep smiling, stay positive and suppress discomfort, it offers us a break to be ourselves.

    The risk of suicide around birthdays is particularly high for those who have depression or autism. If you are feeling upset about your birthday or belong to a vulnerable group, reach out to a helpline, counsellor, therapist, family member or a friend and ask for support during this challenging time. It is easier to tackle the birthday blues together, than do it on your own.

    In the UK: Samaritans are available by phone, for free, at 116 123, or by email at jo@samaritans.org. Further resources can also be found here.

    Jolanta Burke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Fearful of reaching your next milestone age? A psychologist’s tips to combat the ‘birthday blues’ – https://theconversation.com/fearful-of-reaching-your-next-milestone-age-a-psychologists-tips-to-combat-the-birthday-blues-255799

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why climate is an everyday story – but media coverage still spikes around special environment days and UN summits

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sanam Mahoozi, PhD Candidate in Journalism, City St George’s, University of London

    Lake Urmia, Iran. Sebastian Castelier/Shutterstock

    Climate change is already happening. But 36% of the world’s population still disputes the realities of its origins and impacts. When the science is clear but public understanding lags, more lives and livelihoods are put at risk.

    The media can act as a bridge between climate solutions and public understanding. A global analysis by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism found that the news media remain the primary source of climate change information, with 31% of people getting it from television and 24% from websites and social media platforms.

    Despite all of this, the mainstream media around the world is not doing enough to shoulder the responsibility of preparing the public for the impacts of climate change and environmental degradation. Research indicates that climate change coverage spikes around UN climate summits (Cops) and events like World Water Day, but drops off in between.

    That means the stories being told about the environment get the most attention during certain months and consistently less coverage throughout the rest of the year.

    I study how the media reports on climate change in authoritarian countries like Iran and across the Middle East and north Africa, a region where heat indices surpass 55°C and severe water shortages persist.

    As part of my PhD research, I found that international media reporting of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations is sporadic, with coverage often increasing around political and environmental events.

    Reporting on environmental issues in countries facing conflict, war and political tensions is challenging, as the topic often falls low on the media’s list of priorities.

    Climate stories tend to peak around special environment days or UN climate summits.
    arda savasciogullari/Shutterstock

    When it comes to Iran, most of the news making headlines is focused on its nuclear development programme, problems with the west and violations of human rights. The fact that thousands of Iranians die each year from thirst, air pollution and heatwaves rarely makes it into international media, and when it does, it’s usually tied to a political event like protests or US economic sanctions.

    For the past few years, I have been researching and writing for news outlets about the Iranian government’s failure to take action towards mitigating climate change. While discussing the issue with climate scientists, I learned that Iran is among the top ten countries globally contributing to carbon emissions.

    I also learned that, along with Yemen and Libya, Iran is the only country left to ratify the Paris agreement, a treaty that aims to keep global temperatures to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial times.

    However, when I analysed the media coverage, there was not nearly enough mention of this throughout the year. Most articles were published in November, around the time the UN usually holds its annual climate summits, like the UN climate summit, Cop29, hosted by Azerbaijan last year.

    This is a trend I’ve realised through my research and reporting. When the media only covers environmental issues in countries like Iran during political upheavals or climate summits, the world remains largely unaware of these ongoing challenges the rest of the time.

    Here’s the problem: just in the past few months, millions of Iranians across the country have been suffering through crippling sand and dust storms, drought and land subsidence, issues that have been exacerbated by climate change.

    My PhD research into how the media covers the environment in authoritarian regimes is supported by other studies. I found that articles about water and climate issues in Iran and the Middle East tend to peak around environmental protests and UN climate change summits.

    My study shows that Iran received the highest amount of environmental coverage during the 2021 protests in the southwestern province of Khuzestan concerning the lack of water and drought.

    The bigger picture

    When journalists, editors and media outlets delay reporting on the impact of climate change in countries like Iran, we miss the full scale of the damage. As a result, there’s less pressure on authorities to change policies or prepare the public for the growing environmental challenges like forced migration, hunger, and conflict.

    If these countries are more vulnerable to climate change and their governments are doing little to solve the problem, this urgency must be reflected in the media.

    This can be achieved if news organisations publish more stories that explore the root causes of environmental problems and include insights from experts who can offer solutions.

    If even one story can help save a lake, river or wetland from drying up, that’s a pretty powerful effect.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Sanam Mahoozi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why climate is an everyday story – but media coverage still spikes around special environment days and UN summits – https://theconversation.com/why-climate-is-an-everyday-story-but-media-coverage-still-spikes-around-special-environment-days-and-un-summits-256286

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Three ways to make dental care kinder for anxious patients

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Isabel Olegário, Senior Lecturer, Dentistry, RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences

    Impact Photography/Shutterstock

    For many, a visit to the dentist brings fear, anxiety, or memories of uncomfortable experiences. But dentistry is changing – and it’s becoming much kinder.

    Today, needle-free and drill-free approaches are helping manage tooth decay in ways that are more comfortable, especially for children, anxious patients and those with special healthcare needs. Three of the most promising techniques are silver diamine fluoride (SDF), atraumatic restorative treatment (ART) and the Hall technique.

    During the COVID-19 pandemic, many dental clinics sought out non-aerosol-generating procedures (those that don’t spray water or create mist), to reduce viral transmission. SDF and ART became essential treatment approaches during that period – and their popularity has continued to grow. These techniques don’t just make dentistry more acceptable – they challenge the traditional belief that every cavity needs to be drilled and filled.

    Tooth decay is caused by bacteria in dental plaque that feed on sugars and produce acids, gradually wearing away the tooth’s surface when tooth brushing isn’t good.



    Read more:
    Over half of UK adults will have dental disease by 2050, according to our research

    Traditional treatment ordinarily involves numbing a tooth by injection of local anaesthetic followed by removal of the decayed part of the tooth with a drill. The hole (or cavity) left is then then restored or “filled” with a filling material, for example dental composite. While effective, this method can be painful or frightening, especially for younger or vulnerable patients.

    But we now understand that not all cavities need to be restored immediately, and that stabilising disease and preventing progression can be just as important.

    Parents are often surprised – and relieved – to learn that their child’s cavity might not need an injection or a filling at all. Sometimes, especially for small cavities in baby teeth close to falling out naturally, just monitoring or applying SDF may be enough.

    Equally, there’s a growing recognition that patient comfort and trust are essential parts of long-term oral health and quality of life. A traumatic dental experience early in life can deter someone from seeking care for years, making problems worse down the line.



    Read more:
    Fear of the dentist: what is dental phobia and dental anxiety?

    Radically different approach

    Silver diamine fluoride offers a radically different approach. It is a clear liquid applied directly into a cavity using a small brush. It takes only seconds and requires no drilling, no needles or costly, complicated equipment.

    SDF works in two ways. The silver has antibacterial properties that kill the bacteria causing the decay, while the fluoride helps harden the remaining tooth structure. It’s particularly effective for shallow cavities and can stop decay in its tracks. Several studies have found that SDF stopped decay in about 80% of treated cases.

    Silver diamine fluoride application.

    It’s not a perfect solution. One side effect is that the treated area turns black, which can be an aesthetic concern, especially for front teeth. But for back teeth, or for children who cannot tolerate other options, this may be an acceptable alternative for avoiding needles and drilling or costly treatment under general anaesthetic.

    Filling teeth with hand tools, not drills

    Atraumatic restorative treatment is another gentle approach. Originally developed for use in areas with limited access to dental equipment, it’s now widely used as a patient-friendly option.

    ART involves removing soft, decayed tooth tissue using hand instruments – no noisy drills or anaesthetic injections needed. Once the decay tissue is removed, the cavity is filled with a material called glass ionomer cement. This special material sticks to the tooth, releases fluoride over time, and helps prevent further decay.

    The process is quiet, minimally invasive and usually takes less time than conventional treatments. It can often be done with the patient sitting upright, which is particularly helpful for very young children or those with special needs. This treatment doesn’t require a dental chair or power source so it can be done anywhere – from schools to nursing homes.

    Crowns without drilling

    Another gentle and increasingly popular option for managing decay in children’s teeth is the Hall technique.

    Unlike traditional treatments that involve drilling or removing decay, the Hall technique works by sealing the decayed tissue in, rather than taking it out. It uses a preformed metal crown – often called a “stainless steel crown” – that is simply placed over the decayed baby tooth without any drilling, injections, or removal of tooth tissue.

    The Hall technique.

    Here’s how it works: after checking that the tooth is suitable (usually with an x-ray), the dentist uses small orthodontic separators between the child’s teeth for a few days to create space. Then, in a quick and painless appointment, the crown is gently pushed onto the tooth and held in place with special dental cement. That’s it – no needles, no drill and no discomfort.

    By sealing the cavity in this way, the bacteria inside are cut off from the sugars they need to keep causing damage. Over time, the decay becomes inactive, and the crown protects the baby tooth until it naturally falls out.

    Parents are often amazed by how well children cope with this approach. In fact, studies show that children who have had the Hall technique often experience less discomfort, fewer dental visits, and better long-term outcomes than those who undergo traditional drilling and
    filling.

    The future of kinder dentistry

    Of course, the best (and kindest) way to avoid needles, drilling and filling is to prevent tooth decay in the first place. But when treatment is needed, the options above are changing the game – and they’re here to stay.

    Silver diamine fluoride, atraumatic restorative treatment and the Hall technique aren’t right for every situation, but they’re safe, backed by evidence and a powerful reminder that dental care doesn’t have to be painful to be effective.

    For anxious patients, nervous kids, or anyone who’s put off going to the dentist because of fear, these gentler approaches can be the difference between avoiding care and finally getting it.

    Dentistry is changing – and it’s time our expectations caught up.

    Paul Leavy is currently undertaking his PhD at the Trinity College Dublin (TCD) Centre for Health Policy and Management. Paul Leavy receives funding from the Health Research Board (HRB) as a PhD Scholar under the SPHeRE Programme (2018-1).

    Isabel Olegário does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Three ways to make dental care kinder for anxious patients – https://theconversation.com/three-ways-to-make-dental-care-kinder-for-anxious-patients-256925

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: South Korea election: Lee Jae-myung takes over a country split by gender politics

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ming Gao, Research Scholar of East Asia Studies, Lund University

    Liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung has won South Korea’s snap presidential election with a clear lead. With all of the ballots counted, Lee won almost 50% of the vote, ahead of his conservative rival Kim Moon-soo on 41%. He takes over a country that is deeply divided along gender lines.

    Lee’s campaign effectively channelled voter anger. He focused on resetting South Korea’s politics after impeached former president Yoon Suk Yeol, who was from the same party as Kim, unleashed chaos by declaring martial law in December 2024.

    However, gender conflict has continued, subtly but powerfully, to shape voter behaviour, campaign strategies and the national debate about who is to blame for the lack of opportunities in South Korea for young men.

    The election took place three years after Yoon pipped Lee to the presidency by just a quarter of a million votes – the closest margin in the country’s history. Yoon’s victory was, as has been noted by researcher Kyungja Jung, “the epitome of the utilisation of gender wars”.

    A key part of Yoon’s strategy was fostering a sense among young Korean men that it was now them, rather than women, who were the victims of discrimination. He secured 59% of the vote from men in their 20s and 53% from men in their 30s. Just 34% of women in their 20s supported him.

    In the latest election, gender was everywhere and nowhere all at once. On the one hand, not a single candidate put forward a meaningful policy to address structural gender discrimination in the workplace, domestic violence or public sexual harassment.

    None even mentioned the gaping absence of women candidates, despite thousands of mostly young women having filled the streets demanding democracy after Yoon’s martial law declaration. It was the first time in nearly 20 years that not a single woman stood among the contenders for the highest role in the country.

    Lee, positioning himself as the consensus candidate, attempted to neutralise gender as a campaign issue. When reporters asked him whether he would announce any women-related pledges, he said: “Why do you keep dividing men and women? They are all Koreans.”

    His remark may sound inclusive. But it signals a strategy to declare the gender issue off-limits for the sake of the greater good, thus sidestepping the specific inequalities that continue to divide the country. It’s a form of unity by erasure.

    Lee Jun-seok of the right-wing Reform party, on the other hand, tried to resurrect the same playbook that delivered Yoon to power in 2022. He attempted to provoke, polarise and win the loyalty of disaffected young men.

    As Yoon had done three years ago, he called for the abolition of the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family. And during a televised debate, he asked: “If someone says they want to stick chopsticks into women’s genitals, would that count as misogyny?” The question was a nod to a controversial online remark Lee Jae-myung’s son had made years earlier.

    Lee Jun-seok’s comment drew widespread condemnation and, ultimately, he only scraped about 7.7% of the total vote. This included over 37% of men in their 20s, while 58% of women in the same age group backed Lee Jae-myung. Gender is a highly political matter in South Korea whichever way you look at it.

    Gender wars

    This gender divide is now one of the most consistent features of South Korean politics. Women are vocal and visible in public to safeguard not just their own rights, but also South Korea’s democracy.

    Yet populist politicians have cultivated a perception among young men – squeezed by stagnant wages, fierce competition over jobs and social expectations – that their diminishing opportunities are due to policies they see as favouring women.

    This has resulted in many young South Korean men seeing feminism not as a movement for equality but as an obstacle to their own progress. In reality, their struggle has less to do with gender and more to do with structural inequalities in income and opportunity for all young Koreans.

    As Kyungja Jung observed in a paper from 2024: “Misogyny becomes an outlet for their [South Korean men’s] frustration and masculinity crisis as they search for a scapegoat for their struggles in neoliberal society. They blame women rather than the neoliberal economy.”

    Young people even from the best universities in Korea feel they cannot compete in the job market no matter what they do. South Korea now has one of the highest rates of young people not in education, employment or training among the OECD countries. This has given rise to the so-called “N-Po” generation, who feel so disadvantaged that they have given up on all future dreams of marriage, family and a career.

    South Korea isn’t alone in mobilising backlash against feminism and gender equality. Around the globe, gender has become one of the major fault lines in politics. In the November 2024 US election, Donald Trump led among young men by 14 points, while Kamala Harris had an 18-point edge with young women.

    Meanwhile, self-described misogynist Andrew Tate continues to shape young male attitudes online. And in Italy, Giorgia Meloni rose to power on a far-right platform that, despite being a woman herself, reduces women to their roles as mothers and homemakers.

    Young women played a key role in the protests against Yoon’s martial law declaration.
    Icelander / Shutterstock

    One model for change in South Korea could be to introduce quotas for women in politics to make their voices heard. Women only occupy around 20% of the 300 seats in South Korea’s National Assembly, trailing well behind the global (27.2%) and Asian (22.1%) averages. If women are not in politics making decisions about themselves, then their voices will not be heard beyond the streets.

    Lee Jae-myung’s win has given South Korea a moment to breathe. But the fault lines remain. When an entire demographic, be it young men or women, feels systematically unheard or structurally discriminated against, opportunistic voices can move in to fill the void.

    Gender is political. Ignoring it may be just as risky as confronting it head-on.

    Ming Gao receives funding from the Swedish Research Council. This research was produced with support from the Swedish Research Council grant “Moved Apart” (nr. 2022-01864). Ming Gao is a member of Lund University Profile Area: Human Rights.

    Joanna Elfving-Hwang receives funding from the Academy of Korean Studies. This research was supported by the Core University Program for Korean Studies through the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Korea and Korean Studies Promotion Service of the Academy of Korean Studies (AKS-2022-OLU-2250005).

    – ref. South Korea election: Lee Jae-myung takes over a country split by gender politics – https://theconversation.com/south-korea-election-lee-jae-myung-takes-over-a-country-split-by-gender-politics-257923

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Netflix to remake Pride and Prejudice – why Jane Austen novels make perfect period adaptations

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Shelley Galpin, Lecturer in Culture, Media and Creative Industries, King’s College London

    Announcing its new six-part adaptation of Pride and Prejudice, Netflix quoted screenwriter Dolly Alderton as saying: “Once in a generation, a group of people get to retell this wonderful story.” In the 250th anniversary of her birth, it would seem that every new generation wants its own adaptation of Jane Austen’s perennial classic.

    It’s 30 years since Colin Firth’s Darcy decided that the only remedy for unrequited love was a dip in a muddy lake. And 20 since Matthew Macfadyen’s Darcy strode across a chilly field at sunrise to declare that Keira Knightley’s Lizzie had “bewitched me body and soul”. And, erm, almost 10 years since Lily James’s Lizzie fell for Darcy while simultaneously battling zombie hordes in Pride and Prejudice and Zombies.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Netflix’s (zombie-free) adaptation has, at time of writing, announced that Emma Corrin will play Lizzie opposite Jack Lowden’s Darcy, with Olivia Colman set to play Lizzie’s mother, Mrs Bennet. So with another retelling of the iconic love story on the horizon, what makes it such a attractive novel to adapt for screen?

    The clue is partly in the name. The characters are deeply flawed; Darcy is proud, Lizzie is prejudiced against him after she feels slighted at their first meeting. Both need to learn to “get over themselves” to achieve their happy ending. This makes for a highly satisfying character arc. It is difficult to imagine the love story between Lizzie’s “oh-so-perfect” sister Jane and the amiable Mr Bingley having quite the same draw.

    It is satisfying when these two destined-to-be-together characters finally find their happy ending. But the scheming of Bingley’s snobbish sister and the misguided loyalty of Darcy that interrupt the progress of their budding romance do not present the same dramatic tension as Lizzie and Darcy’s own internal battles.

    In one of the most iconic lines, upon learning of an error of judgement, Austen’s Lizzie ruefully acknowledges that, “Till this moment I never knew myself”. It is this internalised process of self-reflection and growth that makes for such compelling and relatable characterisation.

    While creating flawed characters, though, Austen reserved her most acidic barbs for the more powerful members of society. Recently, White Lotus star Aimee Lou Wood called out her cruel portrayal in a Saturday Night Live skit, wisely drawing attention to the difference between punching up at the more powerful and punching down at easy targets with less social capital.

    Austen’s work is defined by her keen sense of class hierarchies, and she skilfully maintains a warmly humorous tone by gently mocking the human foibles of her characters, while never treating them with contempt.

    However, in the same way that the hit show Succession delighted audiences with the opportunity to recoil at the vulgarities of the rich, in Pride and Prejudice Austen punches up by reserving her most mocking behaviour for the privileged.

    Rich matriarch Lady Catherine de Bourgh delights in lecturing others about the correct way to behave, only to turn up at the Bennet household in the middle of the night with the sole intention of berating Lizzie. And the ridiculous Mr Collins, heir apparent to the Bennet family home, appears almost delusional in his belief that he is God’s gift to the Bennet sisters.

    These supporting roles have given a range of great actors the chance to lean into Austen’s social satire by emphasising the abhorrent nature of the characters, and by extension, revealing the stifling nature of the social system that the characters exist within.

    Society isn’t the only thing stifling the characters however. Perhaps one of the most appealing aspects of Pride and Prejudice is its situating of Lizzie within the best and the worst of what family has to offer, allowing for a colourful cast of supporting characters.

    Embarrassing family members such as the meddling mother and the no-filter youngest sister have a universal relatability that can be easily moulded to contemporary sensibilities.

    Mrs Bennet in particular, played for laughs with exaggerated hysteria by Alison Steadman for the BBC in 1995, was reimagined in a rather more sympathetic light in Joe Wright’s 2005 film adaptation, when the very real perils facing her and her daughters upon the death of her husband were more sensitively explored.

    With the highly acclaimed Olivia Colman – so skilled at conveying emotional complexities – now cast in the role, it is likely that this more nuanced take on the character will continue, particularly in the light of more recent high-profile explorations of gendered power dynamics.

    Family life is not all bad for Lizzie though. In Jane Bennet, Austen creates the perfect older sister. Not only does she provide adaptations with an ideal subplot through her romance with Bingley, but the intimacy between the sisters also allows for useful scenes in which the characters discuss their innermost feelings.

    Through their private conversations, the sisters confide in each other, while also lying to each other and themselves about their true feelings, as the audience holds its breath through the highs and lows and waits for the inevitable happy ending to arrive.

    Because, ultimately, it’s all about the love story. While many literary critics have observed the fallacy of ending a romance with marriage, when this is really just the beginning, the fairytale structure of Austen’s novel, with its movement through burgeoning emotions, frustration and despair, arriving finally at self-knowledge and love, has proven a winning formula for centuries.

    Lizzie and Darcy will keep finding each other, generation after generation. Wet shirts and zombies, optional.

    Shelley Galpin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Netflix to remake Pride and Prejudice – why Jane Austen novels make perfect period adaptations – https://theconversation.com/netflix-to-remake-pride-and-prejudice-why-jane-austen-novels-make-perfect-period-adaptations-256649

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How remembering railway accidents from 100 years ago can make the industry safer today

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mike Esbester, Senior Lecturer in History, University of Portsmouth

    APChanel/Shutterstock

    According to a recent report, the UK rail industry is a relatively safe environment for both passengers and workers. The findings, from the Rail Accident Investigation Branch, came from data on railway accidents for 2024.

    But it also showed that there remain areas of concern in the industry. Specifically, it found examples of “not learning” from accidents and incidents. And alarmingly, there has also been a “lack or loss” of learning from historic tragedies.

    So how and where can the sector recover that experience and insight in order to learn the lessons? The report findings imply the knowledge exists, but has been forgotten. It may be that, rather than looking back over the previous 12 months, the industry should cast its gaze back 100 or 150 years.

    For the rail workforce, a major new historical dataset is being released that might offer some answers. The Railway Work, Life & Death project has added nearly 70,000 cases of worker accidents in England and Wales to its database of staff accidents from before 1939.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Until now the records have been available only in hard copy. But digital access via the project website will mean insights from accidents – some dating to the 1850s – can be used to improve rail workforce safety in the present day.

    Examples from the project include the case of North Eastern Railway office cleaner Mary Ramsey. She was run over by a train in 1859 at South Shields while taking out the ashes from the station fireplaces. Ivor Richards, who worked for the Rhymney Railway in Cardiff, was just 14 when he was killed crossing the lines in 1916.

    These, and the tens of thousands of other historic cases, can be used to explore issues that resonate today. The online dataset offers a platform for people to access knowledge freely and learn from the past. No living person or current organisation is singled out. This means people in the rail industry now can use the records to draw parallels between past and present, and use it as a way into frank discussions about safety today.

    The utility of this approach and the value of the data is recognised by the industry. From within the rail sector, accident investigators, health and safety managers and trade union officers will be attending the dataset launch on June 5, at The National Archives of the UK, at Kew, London.

    Though the industry has changed radically over the last 200 years, some issues still exist that would have been equally recognisable to workers more than 100 years ago. From working at height, through slips, trips and falls, to working on and around railway lines, the essence of some railway work – and the dangers – remain consistent.

    Lessons from the past

    Last year the Railway Work, Life & Death project collaborated with independent research body the Rail Safety and Standards Board and the Infrastructure Safety Leadership Group to produce a workshop for safety leaders and a track worker safety digest.

    Both used historic examples to address contemporary issues – demonstrating the value of a “useable past” and the potential for this new dataset.

    The examples of Mary Ramsey and Ivor Richards might be used to discuss things like safe walking routes, or safety training and certification for going on or near working railway lines. They can start conversations about the mitigations that might have been put in place to prevent an accident, or “safe systems of work”. Even though concepts like safety certification and safe walking routes are anachronistic, they allow a space in which discussion can borrow from the past to focus on the present.

    The records come from The National Archives of the UK, where a team of volunteers has spent seven years transcribing them to make them more easily accessible. They were then added into the Railway Work, Life & Death project, a collaboration between the University of Portsmouth, National Railway Museum and the Modern Records Centre at the University of Warwick, working with the RMT union.

    The dataset also has benefits for people beyond the rail industry. This year is being marked as Railway 200 – 200 years since the Stockton and Darlington Railway was launched. This is seen as the birth of the modern system. For historians, we can use the dataset to see the people who kept the railway system running.

    There’s a risk that the version of the past that is portrayed is a straightforward one, and railways (particularly steam railways) are seen through rose-tinted spectacles. That view obscures how hard, dirty and dangerous working on the railways was for many people.

    Narratives about the railways’ past should challenge people – and acknowledge the difficult bits. This newly released dataset can do exactly that. It documents working conditions, wages, practices and, of course, dangers from working on the railways. It allows anyone to find out more about the past, making research easier and more accessible.

    And the dataset lets people tell more diverse stories about who was included in the rail industry.

    For example, we can see how disability as a result of a workplace accident was experienced and managed. William Parry was employed as a signalman in south Wales following a 1907 accident on the railways that cost him his leg.

    Giving more prominence to under-represented groups – while showing their long-standing presence in the rail industry – has significant social value. It can help support those currently in the industry, as well as show those contemplating a railway career that the workplace is for them. It meshes with the work of groups like Women in Rail and Ethnicity and Race in Rail to encourage greater representation in the industry.

    Having spent nearly ten years co-leading the Railway Work, Life & Death project, I sometimes ask myself why I do it – not least given the inherent sadness in many of the cases. But then I see the people behind the statistics, their wider lives, their families and communities, and the window the records gives into life on the railways. That personal connection drives me – alongside the conviction that it can make a difference to today’s industry.

    Railway workers from the past and the accidents they often suffered have been largely forgotten, precisely because the industry is now relatively safe. Employee accidents are nowhere near as commonplace or visible as they once were. But there is room for improvement. Remembering the people of the early railway era and learning from their experiences is once again possible through the Railway Work, Life & Death project.

    Mike Esbester does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How remembering railway accidents from 100 years ago can make the industry safer today – https://theconversation.com/how-remembering-railway-accidents-from-100-years-ago-can-make-the-industry-safer-today-257487

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What if Alberta really did vote to separate?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Stewart Prest, Lecturer, Political Science, University of British Columbia

    Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is using sovereignty sentiments in Alberta as a kind of implied threat to get a better deal for the province.

    In a letter to Mark Carney in the run-up to the recent first ministers conference in Saskatoon, Smith told the prime minister that failure to build additional pipelines for Alberta oil would “send an unwelcome signal to Albertans concerned about Ottawa’s commitment to national unity.”

    Accordingly, it’s worth asking: what would happen if Alberta did vote to leave?

    Two historical touch points are the 1995 sovereignty referendum in Québec and the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom in 2016. In different ways, both examples drive home one inevitable point: in the event of a vote to pursue sovereignty, the future of Alberta would have to be negotiated one painful and uncertain step at a time.

    International lawlessness

    Sovereignty is an assertion of independent governmental authority, notably including a monopoly over the legitimate use of force over a defined people and territory. Unlike provinces in a country like Canada, sovereign countries co-operate with each other if — and only if — it’s in their interests to do so.

    Some proponents of separatism have argued that an independent Alberta could rely on international law to secure continued access to tidewater through Canada. The idea seems to form the basis of Smith’s assertions that one nation cannot “landlock” another under international law. But that’s not the case.

    What’s more, international law — even if it does apply in theory — doesn’t always hold in practice. That’s because between countries, formal anarchy prevails: no one has the responsibility to enforce international law on their own. If one country breaks international law, it’s up to other countries to respond. If that doesn’t happen, then it just doesn’t happen.

    Simply put, if Alberta were to leave Canada, it would lose all enforceable rights and protections offered by the Canadian Constitution and enforced by the institutions and courts. In their place, Alberta would get exactly — and only — what it can bargain for.

    The Québec example

    The Québec independence saga has in many ways clarified and refined the path to potential secession for provinces in Canada, and hints at what can happen in the aftermath of a sovereignty referendum.

    In the wake of the near miss that was the 1995 referendum — when those wanting to remain in Canada defeated those who voted to separate with the narrowest of margins — Jean Chretien’s Liberal government took rapid steps to respond.

    Plan A focused on actions aimed at addressing Québec’s grievances, not unlike Carney’s quest for a national consensus to build an additional pipeline.

    Another course of action, known as Plan B, defined the path to secession.

    The federal government asked the Supreme Court of Canada for a clarification on the legality of sovereignty. It then passed the Clarity Act, which enshrined into law Ottawa’s understanding of the court’s answer. The reference and act both made clear that any secession attempt could be triggered only by a “clear majority” on a “clear question.”

    The act also illuminated the stakes of secession. The preamble of the legislation, for instance, spells out that provincial sovereignty would mean the end of guaranteed Canadian citizenship for departing provincial residents.

    The act also lays out some of the points to be negotiated in the event of secession, “including the division of assets and liabilities, any changes to the borders of the province, the rights, interests and territorial claims of the Aboriginal peoples of Canada, and the protection of minority rights.”

    Simply put, everything would be on the table if Albertans opted to separate.

    You Brexit, you bought it

    Brexit provides an example of just how painful that process can be. After voting to leave the European Union, the U.K. found itself bogged down in a difficult negotiation process that continues to this day.

    Political, economic and trade rights — even including the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland — have all been painfully reconstituted through complex negotiations. Despite the promises made by those who advocated in favour of Brexit, the U.K. will continue to pay in perpetuity for access to the limited EU services it still retains.

    The U.K. is dealing with these challenges even though it was already a sovereign state. Alberta is not. Everything between a sovereign Alberta and its neighbours would be subject to difficult negotiations, both in the initial days of an independent Albertan state and any subsequent discussions.

    Alberta would have little leverage

    Once independent, Alberta would be a landlocked, oil-exporting nation.
    It would be negotiating with Canada — and the United States, its neighbour to the south — over every aspect of its new relationship.

    Its borders with other provinces and territories would need be negotiated, as would the status of marginalized populations and Indigenous Peoples within Alberta. The status of lands subject to treaty — in other words, most of the province — would have to be negotiated.

    Indigenous Peoples themselves have already made clear they have no interest in secession and would mount a vigorous defence of Indigenous rights as they exist within Canada.

    After all, if Canada is divisible, so is Alberta. A new republic has no automatic claims to territory with respect to Indigenous Peoples and treaty lands.

    Once borders were settled, Alberta would have little leverage and would need a lot of help as a country of about 4.5 million negotiating with neighbours of 35 million in Canada and 350 million in the U.S. Who would be its allies?

    Nothing would be guaranteed, not Alberta’s admission to the United Nations, the establishment of an Albertan currency and exchange rates, national and continental defence, the management of shared borders and citizenship rules or the terms of cross-border trade and investment.

    Access to Canadian ports would be at Canada’s discretion, negotiated on terms Canada considered in its interests. Alberta could no more force a pipeline through Canada than through the United States.

    Puerto Rico North?

    Of course, a republic of Alberta would be free to pursue deeper relations with the American republic to its south. The U.S president, however, has already made clear what would be the likely terms for free trade: accession.

    Here, too, there would be no guarantees. Alberta could just as easily become an American territory, with limited representation, as it could a 51st state. “Puerto Rico North” is as possible as “Alaska South.”

    Gone too would be any claims to share collective goods. Alberta’s neighbours would have no incentive, for instance, to help with the inevitable post-oil clean-up, estimated in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

    Simply put, if Alberta were to vote to leave Canada, it would truly be on its own.

    Stewart Prest does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What if Alberta really did vote to separate? – https://theconversation.com/what-if-alberta-really-did-vote-to-separate-257214

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: historian Emma Shortis warns against falling into Trump’s trade traps

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is expected to have his first face-to-face meeting with US President Donald Trump this month, against a background of increased steel and aluminium tariffs and US pressure on Australia to boost its defence spending.

    How Australia manages the now unpredictable US relationship has become a major debate among policy experts. Some question the implications for Australia’s reliance on the US for its security.

    One voice urging Australia to “rebalance” its relationship with the US is Dr Emma Shortis, the director of the Australia Institute’s International and Security Affairs program.

    Shortis is a historian with a particular interest in the United States’ history and politics. She joins the podcast to talk about her new book, After America: Australia and the New World Order.

    On the Australia–US alliance, Shortis says Trump doesn’t think about Australia – which might be a good thing, given Canada’s experience.

    Trump doesn’t really think about the United States’ relationship with Australia. We know that. He has made it very clear. He was asked in the Oval Office about the AUKUS submarine deal, and he responded, what does that mean? He doesn’t think about Australia.

    […] We also probably have to ask ourselves, would it be a good thing if Donald Trump thought about Australia more, if he cared about us more, or gave us more attention?

    […] There’s been a subtle but a noticeable shift in language coming from the prime minister in particular, about Australia’s role in the world and about the relationship with the United States – particularly this week, saying that Australia effectively won’t be dictated to by the United States around defence spending […] In the longer history of the way Australian leaders have bent the knee to the United States, that’s a pretty significant change.

    On Albanese’s likely meeting with Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada, Shortis cautions against making offers to Trump on critical minerals to seek a better deal on tariffs.

    It doesn’t matter what we give him. So giving away Australian sovereign resources, or offering them on the cheap without much return, is not only not great policy [… but] it doesn’t align with a strategy of progressive patriotism that the prime minister has been talking about. And I don’t think it will get us much from the United States.

    It also falls into a trap that Trump is so good at laying, which is dividing the world. Getting individual world leaders to come scraping and begging, asking for exemptions, rather than being met by a solid wall of democratic resistance to what he’s doing.

    On hopes that after Trump, America might move away from its current style of politics, Shortis argues Trump’s changes are deeper than him.

    I would also argue really strongly that the America we thought we knew, the Biden version of the United States, is not coming back any time soon. This second Trump administration is an entirely different beast from the first. Trump and particularly the people around him, the movement that supports him, see this as a generational victory for the far-right movement in the United States. And they will not give it up easily.

    […] So this idea that we can just wait him out, that we can rely on the old assumptions about the cycles of American politics, I think is something we have to be really careful with.

    Shortis argues Australia should be “a real friend” to the US and its people – which would mean speaking up when we disagree – rather than abandoning the alliance.

    I don’t think we should drop the alliance. I also don’t think that is a realistic option politically at the moment. I think the alliance does serve a purpose when it is oriented towards those shared values […] and not to a kind of poverty-stricken view of security and the prevention of war.

    […] What we can do is pursue more independence in our decision-making, which lots of other countries do. If you look around the world, not many other countries are continually asking themselves: ‘Who is going to come and protect us? Who is going to come and save us?’ That is almost a kind of uniquely Australian trait. But again one that’s not inevitable and that we can rethink.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: historian Emma Shortis warns against falling into Trump’s trade traps – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-historian-emma-shortis-warns-against-falling-into-trumps-trade-traps-258174

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The secret to Ukraine’s battlefield successes against Russia – it knows wars are never won in the past

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Sussex, Associate Professor (Adj), Griffith Asia Institute; and Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University

    The iconoclastic American general Douglas Macarthur once said that “wars are never won in the past”.

    That sentiment certainly seemed to ring true following Ukraine’s recent audacious attack on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, using small, cheap drones housed in wooden pods and transported near Russian airfields in trucks.

    The synchronised operation targeted Russian Air Force planes as far away as Irkutsk – more than 5,000 kilometres from Ukraine. Early reports suggest around a third of Russia’s long-range bombers were either destroyed or badly damaged. Russian military bloggers have put the estimated losses lower, but agree the attack was catastrophic for the Russian Air Force, which has struggled to adapt to Ukrainian tactics.

    This particular attack was reportedly 18 months in the making. To keep it secret was an extraordinary feat. Notably, Kyiv did not inform the United States that the attack was in the offing. The Ukrainians judged – perhaps understandably – that sharing intelligence on their plans could have alerted the Kremlin in relatively short order.

    Ukraine’s success once again demonstrates that its armed forces and intelligence services are the modern masters of battlefield innovation and operational security.

    Finding new solutions

    Western military planners have been carefully studying Ukraine’s successes ever since its forces managed to blunt Russia’s initial onslaught deep into its territory in early 2022, and then launched a stunning counteroffensive that drove the Russian invaders back towards their original starting positions.

    There have been other lessons, too, about how the apparently weak can stand up to the strong. These include:

    • attacks on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s vanity project, the Kerch Bridge, linking the Russian mainland to occupied Crimea (the last assault occurred just days ago)

    • the relentless targeting of Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure with drones

    • attacks against targets in Moscow to remind the Russian populace about the war, and

    • its incursion into the Kursk region, which saw Ukrainian forces capture around 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory.

    On each occasion, Western defence analysts have questioned the wisdom of Kyiv’s moves.

    Why invade Russia using your best troops when Moscow’s forces continue laying waste to cities in Ukraine?

    Why hit Russia’s energy infrastructure if it doesn’t markedly impede the battlefield mobility of Russian forces?

    And why attack symbolic targets like bridges when it could provoke Putin into dangerous “escalation”?

    The answer to this is the key to effective innovation during wartime. Ukraine’s defence and security planners have interpreted their missions – and their best possible outcomes – far more accurately than conventional wisdom would have thought.

    Above all, they have focused on winning the war they are in, rather than those of the past. This means:

    • using technological advancements to force the Russians to change their tactics

    • shaping the information environment to promote their narratives and keep vital Western aid flowing, and

    • deploying surprise attacks not just as ways to boost public morale, but also to impose disproportionate costs on the Russian state.

    The impact of Ukraine’s drone attack

    In doing so, Ukraine has had an eye for strategic effects. As the smaller nation reliant on international support, this has been the only logical choice.

    Putin has been prepared to commit a virtually inexhaustible supply of expendable cannon fodder to continue his country’s war ad infinitum. Russia has typically won its wars this way – by attrition – albeit at a tremendous human and material cost.

    That said, Ukraine’s most recent surprise attack does not change the overall contours of the war. The only person with the ability to end it is Putin himself.

    That’s why Ukraine is putting as much pressure as possible on his regime, as well as domestic and international perceptions of it. It is key to Ukraine’s theory of victory.

    This is also why the latest drone attack is so significant. Russia needs its long-range bomber fleet, not just to fire conventional cruise missiles at Ukrainian civilian and infrastructure targets, but as aerial delivery systems for its strategic nuclear arsenal.

    The destruction of even a small portion of Russia’s deterrence capability has the potential to affect its nuclear strategy. It has increasingly relied on this strategy to threaten the West.

    A second impact of the attack is psychological. The drone attacks are more likely to enrage Putin than bring him to the bargaining table. However, they reinforce to the Russian military that there are few places – even on its own soil – that its air force can act with operational impunity.

    The surprise attacks also provide a shot in the arm domestically, reminding Ukrainians they remain very much in the fight.

    Finally, the drone attacks send a signal to Western leaders. US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, for instance, have gone to great lengths to tell the world that Ukraine is weak and has “no cards”. This action shows Kyiv does indeed have some powerful cards to play.

    That may, of course, backfire: after all, Trump is acutely sensitive to being made to look a fool. He may look unkindly at resuming military aid to Ukraine after being shown up for saying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would be forced to capitulate without US support.

    But Trump’s own hubris has already done that for him. His regular claims that a peace deal is just weeks away have gone beyond wishful thinking and are now monotonous.

    Unsurprisingly, Trump’s reluctance to put anything approaching serious pressure on Putin has merely incentivised the Russian leader to string the process along.

    Indeed, Putin’s insistence on a maximalist victory, requiring Ukrainian demobilisation and disarmament without any security guarantees for Kyiv, is not diplomacy at all. It is merely the reiteration of the same unworkable demands he has made since even before Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

    However, Ukraine’s ability to smuggle drones undetected onto an opponent’s territory, and then unleash them all together, will pose headaches for Ukraine’s friends, as well as its enemies.

    That’s because it makes domestic intelligence and policing part of any effective defence posture. It is a contingency democracies will have to plan for, just as much as authoritarian regimes, who are also learning from Ukraine’s lessons.

    In other words, while the attack has shown up Russia’s domestic security services for failing to uncover the plan, Western security elites, as well as authoritarian ones, will now be wondering whether their own security apparatuses would be up to the job.

    The drone strikes will also likely lead to questions about how useful it is to invest in high-end and extraordinarily expensive weapons systems when they can be vulnerable. The Security Service of Ukraine estimates the damage cost Russia US$7 billion (A$10.9 billion). Ukraine’s drones, by comparison, cost a couple of thousand dollars each.

    At the very least, coming up with a suitable response to those challenges will require significant thought and effort. But as Ukraine has repeatedly shown us, you can’t win wars in the past.

    Matthew Sussex has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Atlantic Council, the Fulbright Foundation, the Carnegie Foundation, the Lowy Institute and various Australian government departments and agencies.

    – ref. The secret to Ukraine’s battlefield successes against Russia – it knows wars are never won in the past – https://theconversation.com/the-secret-to-ukraines-battlefield-successes-against-russia-it-knows-wars-are-never-won-in-the-past-258172

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Extreme weather events have slowed economic growth, adding to the case for another rate cut

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stella Huangfu, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney

    Australia’s economy slowed sharply in the March quarter, growing by just 0.2% as government spending slowed and extreme weather events dampened demand. That followed an increase of 0.6% in the previous quarter.

    The national accounts report from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed annual growth steady at 1.3%, below market forecasts for an improvement to 1.5%.

    The result is also weaker than the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts.

    The ABS said: “Extreme weather events further dampened domestic demand and reduced exports”, with the impact particularly evident in mining, tourism and shipping.

    This report on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be a key consideration for the Reserve Bank’s next meeting on July 7–8, helping shape its decision on whether to cut rates again. In May, the central bank cut the cash rate by 0.25% to 3.85%.

    On balance, the softer than expected pace of growth makes another rate cut in July a bit more likely.

    Private demand drives growth as public spending slumps

    Household spending slowed to 0.4% in the quarter from 0.7%. Essential spending led the way, with a sharp 10.2% rise in electricity costs due to a warmer-than-usual summer and reduced electricity bill rebates. Food spending also increased as Queenslanders stocked up ahead of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

    Investment also contributed to growth, though its composition shifted. Private investment rose 0.7%, driven by a rebound in house building and strong non-dwelling construction, particularly in mining and electricity projects. But business investment in equipment and machinery slumped.

    Public investment fell 2.0%, ending a run of positive growth since September 2024. This decline, which detracted 0.1 percentage points from GDP, reflected the completion or delay of energy, rail and road projects.

    “Public spending recorded the largest detraction from growth since the September quarter 2017”, the ABS said.

    Disappointing trade performance

    Exports unexpectedly became the main drag on growth in the March quarter, marking a sharp turnaround from December 2024.

    Total exports fell 0.8%, led by a drop in services – particularly travel – due to weaker foreign student arrivals and lower spending. Goods exports also declined as bad weather disrupted coal and natural gas shipments, and demand from key markets like China and Japan softened.

    The growth outlook is soft

    Given the weaker-than-expected growth in the March quarter, Australia’s economic outlook remains soft.

    A disappointing sign in the report was another fall in GDP per head of population, known as GDP per capita. This measure declined by 0.2%, after just one quarterly rise and seven previous quarters of a “per capita recession”, when population growth outpaces economic growth.

    The household saving rate continue to rise in the March quarter, back to pre-COVID levels at 5.2%. This is because income grew faster than spending, and households remain cautious amid economic uncertainty. Additional government support also boosted savings.

    The economic slowdown reflects weak household spending and a notable pullback in public sector investment. With domestic demand under strain, short-term growth prospects appear limited as the economy continues to adjust to past interest rate hikes and the early effects of the recent cuts.

    The Reserve Bank began cutting official rates in February – its first move after 13 consecutive hikes between May 2022 and November 2023 – but the impact has yet to flow through. The next GDP figures, due on September 3, will offer a clearer picture of how the February and May rate cuts are shaping the recovery.

    Trade tensions add uncertainty

    Global conditions have become more unsettled, with rising trade tensions and shifting geopolitical alliances putting pressure on international trade. Renewed tariff threats – particularly from the US – are disrupting global supply chains. For export-reliant Australia, this increases the risk of weaker trade volumes and greater exposure to external shocks.

    At the same time, China’s post-pandemic recovery is losing momentum, dragged down by weak consumer demand and a struggling property sector.

    Given Australia’s close trade ties with China, any sustained slowdown there poses a clear threat to export earnings and broader economic growth. Together, these global headwinds are adding to the uncertainty surrounding Australia’s economic outlook.

    A balancing act on rates

    With demand soft and the economy losing momentum, the Reserve Bank may cut interest rates again at its July meeting to help boost growth. Key sectors like household spending, public services and mining have been under pressure. A further rate cut could support confidence and encourage more spending.

    However, the monthly inflation report for April adds uncertainty. While headline inflation held steady at 2.4% over the year to April, underlying measures ticked higher.
    The monthly rate excluding volatile items such as fuel and fresh food rose to 2.8%, up from 2.6%. That suggests price pressures are becoming more widespread.

    These mixed signals leave the RBA facing a delicate balancing act. Upcoming data, particularly the employment report on June 19 and the May monthly inflation indicator on June 25, will be critical in determining whether inflation is easing enough to justify another cut or showing signs of persistence that call for caution.

    The Conversation

    Stella Huangfu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Extreme weather events have slowed economic growth, adding to the case for another rate cut – https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-events-have-slowed-economic-growth-adding-to-the-case-for-another-rate-cut-257962

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Young people who witness domestic violence are more likely to be victims of it. Here’s how we can help them

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kristin Diemer, Associate Professor of Sociology, The University of Melbourne

    In our national discussions on domestic and family violence, much of the focus is rightly on the women experiencing the violence and how best to help them.

    But another vital, less acknowledged part of the puzzle is the impact on children.

    Children and young people exposed to, or witnessing domestic violence between their parents or primary caregivers is widely recognised as a form of child abuse.

    They can be placed in otherwise unthinkable scenarios. These include being forced to spy on a parent, defending a parent, intervening to stop the violence, or being used as a hostage.

    After the event, young people can be the ones assisting with injuries, calling for emergency services and witnessing police intervention. Sometimes, they’re forced to leave the home and seek refuge.

    As we seek to end violence in a generation under the national plan, focusing on children will be key.

    The extent of the problem

    Evidence shows children living with domestic violence have greater rates of learning difficulties, poor health and wellbeing and may exhibit challenging behaviours.

    The Australian Personal Safety Survey (2021–2022) identified one in eight adults (13%) witnessed violence between their parents or caregivers before the age of 15.

    People were twice as likely to have witnessed violence towards their mother than their father.

    There is also emerging evidence children and young people exposed to domestic violence are more likely to be victims of multiple forms of maltreatment.

    The Australian Child Maltreatment Study invited people aged 16 and older to participate. Four out of ten young people (aged 16–24) who responded to the survey and experienced childhood abuse, also reported more than one type of abuse.

    What does this mean for them as adults?

    Australians who witness violence against their mother as a young person are 2.5 times more likely to become victims of intimate partner domestic violence from the age of 15, compared to people who are not exposed to domestic violence during childhood.

    We don’t know why they are at greater risk, but one theory is that children who grow up in a domestic violence household may minimise or normalise the behaviour.

    The Australian National Community Attitudes Survey on Violence Against Women shows a quarter of Australians (23%) minimise domestic violence, believing it’s is an overreaction to day to day stress.

    We don’t know how many people in Australia who witness domestic violence as a child become perpetrators of intimate partner abuse as adults.

    Howeve, global studies have found witnessing parental violence as a young person is the highest risk factor associated with likelihood of perpetrating violence in adult relationships (28%). This is closely followed by permissive attitudes on violence against women (24%).

    New data released by the Australian Institute of Family Studies further reveals men who grow up with positive father figure role models expressing affection are 48% less likely to become perpetrators of family violence in adulthood.

    Do childhood victims become adult victims?

    While there is a real increased risk of adult domestic violence among children who witness parental domestic violence, it is not the majority.

    One in three (34%) Australian women who witness parental domestic violence against their mother become victims of adult domestic violence themselves. It’s one in seven (14%) men.

    As researchers, we are usually identifying a problem, rather than examining positive outcomes. This means less attention has been paid to understanding resilience and what protects young people.

    Our research team has conducted two projects in which we spoke with young people about their experience of living with fathers who abused their mothers.

    While we focused on amplifying their voices and asking what they wanted to say to their fathers, it was common for them to mention they were fearful of forming their own intimate partner relationships.

    They had heard of cycles of intergenerational violence and did not want to become like their fathers.

    Can we break the cycle?

    An evaluation of a pilot project working directly with children and young people in the western suburbs of Melbourne found children living with domestic violence experienced present fear, overwhelming worry about their future, and an inability to form positive friendships.

    Receiving one-on-one, intensive support helped them with improved confidence, decreased fear and overall increased happiness.

    Both of these example studies with children and young people are small. Conducting research with children and young people involves greater attention to risk, ethics and safety, and often requires a greater amount of time for the whole process. Many projects are not sufficiently funded to include the voices of young people.

    The available research shows the concerning long-term impact of childhood exposure to domestic violence, but it also shows hope.

    It is a minority of children in these circumstances who become victims in adulthood, and we estimate also a minority who go on to perpetrate violence.

    Reparative work with children does show their lives can be greatly improved. The participation of young people in research and the recent Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety conference also shows they can clearly articulate an understanding of their experiences, what has worked for them, and importantly, what is not effective.

    We have good evidence for what can work to prevent and end family violence if there is sufficient long-term investment.

    But children’s needs have been under investigated. We would benefit from better understanding of what can help young people exposed to domestic violence and the positive impact of early intervention.

    The National Sexual Assault, Family and Domestic Violence Counselling Line – 1800 RESPECT (1800 737 732) – is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week for any Australian who has experienced, or is at risk of, family and domestic violence and/or sexual assault.

    Kristin Diemer holds a joint appointment at the University of Melbourne and Australia’s National Research Organisation for Women’s Safety (ANROWS). She is a member of the Advisory Panels for the Australian Personal Safety Survey, and the National Community Attitudes Survey on violence against women.

    – ref. Young people who witness domestic violence are more likely to be victims of it. Here’s how we can help them – https://theconversation.com/young-people-who-witness-domestic-violence-are-more-likely-to-be-victims-of-it-heres-how-we-can-help-them-257463

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Gluten intolerance and coeliac disease can both cause nausea, bloating and pain. What’s the difference?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yasmine Probst, Professor, School of Medical, Indigenous and Health Sciences. Advanced Accredited Practising Dietitian, University of Wollongong

    fotodrobik/Shutterstock

    Around one in ten Australians say they follow a gluten-free diet.

    This means eliminating common foods – such as bread, pasta and noodles – that contain gluten, a protein found mainly in wheat, barley and rye.

    Not everyone who follows a gluten-free diet has an underlying condition. But if you experience nausea, bloating or stomach pain after eating gluten, it could be the sign of a gluten intolerance, or coeliac disease.

    While gluten intolerance and coeliac disease share many similar symptoms, one can cause intestinal damage and malnutrition. So, what’s the difference?

    What is coeliac disease?

    Coeliac disease is an autoimmune disease. This means the body mistakenly starts attacking healthy cells and tissue – in this case, in the small intestine – causing inflammation.

    It affects around one in 70 Australians, but only 20% of this group are diagnosed.

    If you have coeliac disease, eating foods that contain gluten can damage your villi, structures in the small intestine that help the body absorb nutrients.

    Following a meal containing gluten, you may experience digestive problems including diarrhoea, bloating, nausea, gas and abdominal pain.

    Coeliac disease can lead to long-term damage in the small intenstine.
    Sakurra/Shutterstock

    Gluten can also cause non-digestive symptoms such as brain fog, headaches, dermatitis herpetiformis (an itchy, blistery skin rash), joint pain and fatigue.

    In the long term, untreated coeliac disease can lead to malnutrition because the damaged villi can’t absorb nutrients from food. It can also reduce bone mineral density and has been linked to neurological disorders such as epilepsy and dementia.

    How is coeliac disease diagnosed?

    For an accurate diagnosis, you must not have eliminated gluten from your diet yet. This is so its effect on your digestive system can be measured.

    A diagnosis involves blood tests followed by biopsies of the small intestine using an endoscope (an instrument with a light that can look inside the body).

    Blood tests look for antigens – markers of a reaction to gluten – while the biopsy inspects any damage to the villi in the intestine.

    In some cases, a capsule endoscopy, where a pill-sized camera is swallowed, is used to look at the intestine and observe for damage.

    What about gluten intolerance?

    People with gluten intolerance experience similar symptoms to coeliac disease. The difference is, after consuming gluten, there is no autoimmune response or intestinal damage.

    Gluten intolerance is sometimes known as non-coeliac gluten sensitivity.

    An estimated 1% of Australians live with a gluten intolerance, but only 12 in every 100 of this group are diagnosed by a doctor.

    Doctors will rule out coeliac disease and wheat allergies as a first step for a person with symptoms related to eating gluten.

    Once these have been ruled out, a gluten-free diet trial, supervised by an accredited practising dietitian, might be recommended to see if symptoms improve.

    A formal diagnosis of gluten intolerance can only be confirmed using a highly complex dietary trial that compares the effect of gluten and a placebo over at least eight weeks.

    This form of scientific study is very labour-intensive and not very common.

    So instead many people just choose to eliminate gluten, without a diagnosis.

    Extreme sensitivity to gluten

    Coeliac disease is more severe than gluten intolerance and sensitivity can vary among those diagnosed.

    Even traces of gluten can trigger symptoms. This means a strict, lifelong, gluten-free diet essential.

    It also means people with coeliac disease have to be careful about cross-contamination. For example, using the same knife, chopping board or toaster to cut or toast gluten-free bread and regular bread can transfer gluten particles and cause a reaction.

    According to the latest studies, consuming just 50mg of gluten per day is enough to cause intestinal damage for people with coeliac disease.

    For context, a slice of whole-wheat bread contains about 4,800mg of gluten, meaning 50mg is around 1/100th of a slice of bread.

    A small amount of gluten won’t affect someone with gluten intolerance in the same way. They may have temporary symptoms, but won’t experience intestinal damage.

    However, the symptoms and their severity can vary from person to person, depending on their individual sensitivity.



    Read more:
    What’s the difference between a food allergy and an intolerance?

    Should I cut out gluten, just in case?

    You might be wondering if there is a downside to avoiding gluten, if you don’t have coeliac disease or an intolerance.

    There can be.

    Grain foods that contain gluten are rich in essential nutrients such as fibre, folate, iron and B-group vitamins.

    Avoiding gluten when you don’t need to can lead to nutritional deficiencies.

    Gluten-free products can also be more expensive and are sometimes higher in sugar, salt and fat to help compensate for texture and taste.

    Before making any changes to your diet, it is best to speak with an accredited practising dietitian to make sure you’re not missing out on important nutrients.

    So, what if you have symptoms?

    Common signs of a gluten intolerance or coeliac disease include bloating, diarrhoea or constipation, and stomach pain. Both conditions can trigger non-gastrointestinal symptoms such as headaches, fatigue and joint pain.

    If these symptoms sound familiar, it’s best to speak to a health-care professional who may test you for coeliac disease and/or a wheat allergy before eliminating gluten from your diet.

    Remember, self-diagnosing and removing gluten without proper guidance might do you more harm than good.

    If your symptoms concern you, speak to your GP, a gastroenterologist or a qualified dietitian. Dietitians Australia has a list of accredited practising dietitians.

    Yasmine Probst receives funding from Multiple Sclerosis Australia.

    Olivia Wills does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Gluten intolerance and coeliac disease can both cause nausea, bloating and pain. What’s the difference? – https://theconversation.com/gluten-intolerance-and-coeliac-disease-can-both-cause-nausea-bloating-and-pain-whats-the-difference-253235

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ahead of the Brisbane Olympics, it’s time for Australia to get serious about esports

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Craig McNulty, Senior Lecturer in Exercise Physiology, Queensland University of Technology

    Roman Kosolapov/Shutterstock

    Most of us have heard of esports but many don’t realise the fast-growing world of competitive video gaming features tournaments, university scholarships and billions of dollars in revenue.

    As we approach the 2032 Brisbane Olympic and Paralympic Games, it’s time for Australia to develop esports talent pathways and invest in infrastructure.

    Doing so would create social benefits and economic opportunities, creating jobs in game development, content creation, events and tourism.

    The athletes

    For those unaware, esports refers to the organised, competitive playing of video games. All esports are video games but not all video games are esports.

    Esports players compete in competitions ranging from online ranked play (where you get an Elo rating, like chess) to live, in-person tournaments.

    Popular games include League of Legends, Dota 2 and Counter-Strike.

    Professional players compete in leagues and tournaments, online or in packed stadiums.

    Like most pro athletes, these players often train with their teams daily, and many also train by themselves informally. During training, they are honing reflexes, refining tactics and analysing opponents.

    Some competitions offer prize pools worth millions and global audiences can rival major traditional sports broadcasts.

    Like traditional sports, esports athletes are scouted young, attend development academies and receive university scholarships.

    An Olympic horizon?

    Esports has been around in some form since the 1970s but it’s exploded into the mainstream in the past decade.

    Unlike traditional sports, which depend on TV deals and fixed broadcast schedules, esports live online. Events are streamed on platforms like Twitch and YouTube, letting fans tune in from anywhere in the world.

    Much of the global momentum comes from Asia. South Korea is often credited with legitimising esports through the Starcraft boom of the early 2000s.

    Today, China, Japan and other nations have government-backed esports strategies, dedicated arenas and thriving pro circuits.

    The International Olympic Committee (IOC)’s announcement of the 2027 Esports Games marks a significant step.

    While not part of the main Olympics, this event is a signal esports is valued for its skill, global reach and cultural impact.

    With Brisbane to host the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games, this may be Australia’s moment to step up by building talent development pathways and investing in major infrastructure: purpose-built training centres, venues for live competition and streaming and systems to support players from grassroots to elite levels.

    What’s happening in Australia?

    Australia is home to a growing esports community, with thousands of young Australians competing in national and international tournaments.

    Esports have become a central part of youth culture, from local high school leagues to university tournaments.

    Australia has already shown it can host major international esports events. Over the past decade, we’ve hosted qualifiers for titles such as Counter-Strike, Dota 2 and League of Legends.

    Flagship events such as Intel Extreme Masters (IEM), one of the most prestigious esports tournaments globally, continue to highlight Australia’s potential: in 2019, IEM Sydney drew thousands of fans and international teams, filling stadiums and putting Australia on the global esports map.

    More recently, IEM Melbourne in April this year brought Counter-Strike 2 back to local fans.

    If the right infrastructure is developed here, Australia could become a regular destination for international esports tournaments.

    On the education front, universities such as Queensland University of Technology, Swinburne and Southern Cross are leading the way with esports degrees, scholarships and research centres.

    These programs don’t just train players, they prepare students for careers in broadcasting, game development, coaching and performance science.

    Despite limited national support, some states and councils are experimenting with community programs, while broadcasters such as ESL Australia continue to grow local events and coverage.

    Challenges and opportunities

    Australia’s esports industry boasts immense potential, but it still faces significant challenges.

    The biggest hurdle is a lack of national investment and infrastructure.

    Unlike traditional sports, esports have no central body coordinating funding, training or pathways from amateur to professional. While other countries are investing in esports stadiums and elite teams, Australia has largely left the sector to develop on its own.

    Another issue is cultural: esports still struggle for full acceptance from sporting bodies, schools and sections of government.

    Without a coordinated effort to integrate esports into national sporting strategy, Australia risks being left behind.

    Yet the opportunities are clear.

    The IOC’s 2027 Esports Games could be a turning point. Ahead of Brisbane 2032, Australia is uniquely positioned to lead a national commitment to esports infrastructure and player development.

    Brisbane’s organisers could also advocate for esports’ inclusion in the 2032 Olympics, which could position Australia as a leading contender in this emerging field.

    There’s also a chance to combine esports with Australia’s world-class research in sports science and mental health: Australia is leading the way in developing health-focused research and initiatives that address player wellbeing from grassroots to professional levels.

    With the right support, Australia could shift from spectator to serious player.

    Craig is employed as a Senior Lecturer at Queensland University of Technology (QUT). QUT is mentioned within the article in relation to their QUT Esports program.

    Dylan Poulus works for Movember as a Senior Research Fellow in esports and video games and at Southern Cross University as a Senior Lecturer in Psychology. Movember and Southern Cross University are mentioned in the articles in relation to their work in esports. Dylan has received grant funding from the Australian Institute of Sport to investigate esports high-performance.

    – ref. Ahead of the Brisbane Olympics, it’s time for Australia to get serious about esports – https://theconversation.com/ahead-of-the-brisbane-olympics-its-time-for-australia-to-get-serious-about-esports-256788

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How physicists used antimatter, supercomputers and giant magnets to solve a 20-year-old mystery

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Finn Stokes, Ramsay Fellow in Physics, University of Adelaide

    Cindy Arnold, Fermilab

    Physicists are always searching for new theories to improve our understanding of the universe and resolve big unanswered questions.

    But there’s a problem. How do you search for undiscovered forces or particles when you don’t know what they look like?

    Take dark matter. We see signs of this mysterious cosmic phenomenon throughout the universe, but what could it possibly be made of? Whatever it is, we’re going to need new physics to understand what’s going on.

    Thanks to a new experimental result published today, and the new theoretical calculations that accompany it, we may now have an idea what this new physics should look like – and maybe even some clues about dark matter.

    Meet the muon

    For 20 years, one of the most promising signs of new physics has been
    a tiny inconsistency in the magnetism of a particle called the muon. The muon is a lot like an electron but is much heavier.

    Muons are produced when cosmic rays – high-energy particles from space – hit Earth’s atmosphere. Roughly 50 of these muons pass through your body every second.

    Muons travel through solid objects much better than x-rays, so they are useful for finding out what is inside large structures. For example, they have been used to look for hidden chambers in Egyptian and Mexican pyramids; to study magma chambers inside volcanoes to predict volcanic eruptions; and to safely see inside the Fukushima nuclear reactor after it melted down.

    A tiny crack in physics?

    In 2006, researchers at Brookhaven National Laboratory in the United States measured the strength of the muon’s magnetism incredibly precisely.

    Their measurement was accurate to roughly six parts in ten billion. This is equivalent to measuring the mass of a loaded freight train to ten grams. This was compared to a similarly impressive theoretical calculation.

    When researchers compared the two numbers, they found a tiny but significant difference, indicating a mismatch between theory and experiment. Had they finally found the new physics they’d been looking for?

    A better experiment

    To find a definitive answer, the international scientific community started a 20-year program to increase the precision of both results.

    The huge electromagnet from the original experiment was loaded onto a barge and shipped down the east coast of the US and then up the Mississippi River to Chicago. There, it was installed at Fermilab for a completely overhauled experiment.

    The giant ring of magnets used to study the muon’s magnetism was shipped from New York to Chicago in 2013.
    Reidar Hahn/ Fermilab

    Just this morning, researchers announced they had finished that experiment. Their final result for the strength of the muon’s magnetism is 4.4 times more precise, at one-and-a-half parts in ten billion.

    And better calculations

    To keep up, theorists had to make sweeping improvements too. They formed the Muon g-2 Theory Initiative, an international collaboration of more than 100 scientists, dedicated to making an accurate theoretical prediction.

    They computed the contributions to the muon’s magnetism from more than 10,000 factors. They even included a particle called the Higgs boson, which was only discovered in 2012.

    But there was one last sticking point: the strong nuclear force, one of the universe’s four fundamental forces. In particular, computing the largest contribution to the result from the strong nuclear force was no easy feat.

    Antimatter vs supercomputers

    It was not possible to compute this contribution in the same way as the others, so we needed a different approach.

    In 2020, the Theory Initiative turned to collisions between electrons and their antimatter counterparts: positrons. Measurements of these electron–positron collisions provided the missing values we needed.

    Put together with all the other parts, this gave a result that strongly disagreed with the latest experimental measurement. The disagreement was almost strong enough to announce the discovery of new physics.

    Simulations carried out with the Hawk supercomputer at the High-Performance Computing Center Stuttgart resolved the discrepancy between calculations and experiment.
    Marijan Murat/picture alliance via Getty Images

    At the same time, I was exploring a different approach. Along with my colleagues in the Budapest-Marseille-Wuppertal collaboration, we performed a supercomputer simulation of this strong contribution.

    Our result eliminated the tension between theory and experiment. However, now we had a new tension: between our simulation and the electron–positron results which had withstood 20 years of scrutiny. How could those 20-year-old results be wrong?

    Hints of new physics disappear

    Since then, two other groups have produced full simulations that agree with ours, and many more have validated parts of our result. We have also produced a new, overhauled simulation that almost doubles our precision (released as a preprint, which has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a scientific journal).

    To ensure these new simulations weren’t affected by any preconceptions, they were performed “blind”. The simulation data was multiplied by an unknown number before being analysed, so we didn’t know what a “good” or “bad” result would be.

    We then held a nerve-wracking and exciting meeting. The blinding factor was revealed, and we found out the results of years of work all at once. After all this, our latest result agrees even better with the experimental measurement of the muon’s magnetism.

    But others emerge

    The Muon g-2 Theory Initiative has moved to using the simulation results instead of the electron-positron data in its official prediction, and the hint of new physics seems to be gone.

    Except … why does the electron–positron data disagree? Physicists around the globe have studied this question extensively, and one exciting suggestion is a hypothetical particle called a “dark photon”.

    Not only could the dark photon explain the difference between the latest muon results and the electron–positron experiments, but (if it exists) it could also explain how dark matter relates to ordinary matter.

    Finn Stokes receives in-kind funding from the National Computational Infrastructure through the National Computational Merit Allocation Scheme. They are supported by a Ramsay Fellowship from the University of Adelaide.

    – ref. How physicists used antimatter, supercomputers and giant magnets to solve a 20-year-old mystery – https://theconversation.com/how-physicists-used-antimatter-supercomputers-and-giant-magnets-to-solve-a-20-year-old-mystery-257891

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 4, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 4, 2025.

    Artist Janenne Eaton’s retrospective is a compelling account of our troubled times
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julie Shiels, Senior Industry Fellow, RMIT University Janenne Eaton R E E F 2015 enamel paint, vinyl decals, mirror and polymer clay on canvas Geelong Gallery Gift of the artist, 2019. Photographer: Mark Ashkanasy © the artist. With bad news-overload it is easy to conclude it is

    ‘Not available in your region’: what is a VPN and how can I use one safely?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Meena Jha, Head Technology and Pedagogy Cluster CML-NET, CQUniversity Australia Linaimages/Shutterstock “This video is not available in your location”. It’s a message familiar to many people trying to watch global content online. But beneath this frustration lies a deeper question – how do we navigate digital borders

    Just the ticket? The problem with local body candidates aligning with national political parties
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julienne Molineaux, Senior Lecturer, School of Social Sciences and Humanities, Auckland University of Technology Getty Images With accusations flying thick and fast last year about supposed “dysfunction” and a “shambles” at Wellington City Council, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown stepped in and appointed a Crown Observer. Announcing

    The chicks are alright: what songbirds can teach us about divorce and moving on
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Frigg Janne Daan Speelman, PhD Candidate in Behavioural Ecology, Macquarie University Charli Davies, CC BY-NC-ND In humans, it’s very common for the traditional family structure of two parents raising children to change abruptly. Usually, this happens when the parents decide to separate. Many separated couples are able

    Former Congress staffer allowed to return to New Caledonia
    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk One of seven people transferred to mainland France almost a year ago, following the May 2024 riots in New Caledonia, has been allowed to return home, a French court has ruled. Frédérique Muliava, a former Congress staffer, was part of a group of six who were

    Ship runs aground in Fiji – then its rescue vessel capsizes
    RNZ Pacific Fiji’s Maritime Safety Authority has launched an investigation into Goundar Shipping Limited following two incidents involving its vessels. Late last month, one vessel ran aground on the reef of Ono-i-Lau, and villagers had to step in to ferry stranded passengers to nearby islands using small boats. On Monday, the Lomaiviti Princess II was

    Curious Kids: can spiders swim?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leanda Denise Mason, Vice Chancellor Research Fellow in Conservation Ecology, Edith Cowan University A great raft spider (_Dolomedes plantarius_). Salparadis/Shutterstock Can spiders swim? Waubra Preschool students, Victoria, Australia What a great question! Most spiders don’t swim by choice. But they sure can survive in water when they

    A two-state solution is gaining momentum again. Does it have a chance of success?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Thomas, Lecturer in Middle East Studies, Deakin University As Israel’s devastating war in Gaza has ground on, the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was thought to be “dead”. Now, it is showing signs of life again. French President Emmanuel Macron is reportedly pressing other European

    Senior public servants think GenAI will boost productivity – but are worried about the risks
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Helen Dickinson, Professor, Public Service Research, UNSW Sydney Many bold claims have been made about Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) and its capacity to improve productivity and generate workplace efficiencies. A recent Microsoft survey found 24% of private sector leaders have already deployed GenAI across their organisations. Many

    People with severe mental illness are waiting for days in hospital EDs. Here’s how we can do better
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sebastian Rosenberg, Associate Professor, Health Research Institute, University of Canberra, and Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney Matthew Ashmore/Shutterstock On ABC’s 4 Corners this week, psychiatrists and nurses have warned New South Wales’ mental health system is in crisis. They report some patients with severe mental

    With a government review underway, we have to ask why children bully other kids
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marilyn Campbell, Professor, School of Early Childhood & Inclusive Education, Queensland University of Technology Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock The federal government has launched a “rapid review” to look at what works to prevent bullying in schools. Led by mental health experts, the review will underpin a new national standard to

    In the trade wars, there are lessons for the US from Brexit. Australia and our trading partners should take note
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Draper, Professor, and Executive Director: Institute for International Trade, and Director of the Jean Monnet Centre of Trade and Environment, University of Adelaide General_4530/Getty While the Trump administration’s on-again, off-again trade wars wreak havoc on the business plans of the world’s exporters, the risks to the

    ‘That was rude’: why the new Broadway musical Death Becomes Her was ripe for TikTok memes
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Camp, Senior Lecturer, School of Music, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau A few snippets of musicalised dialogue from the cast album of the new Broadway musical Death Becomes Her – with music and lyrics by Julia Mattison and Noel Carey, and a book by Marco

    Motarilavoa Hilda Lini, ‘a trailblazer’ for Vanuatu women in politics, dies
    RNZ Pacific Motarilavoa Hilda Lini, a pioneering Ni-Vanuatu politician, has died. Lini passed away at the Port Vila General Hospital on Sunday, according to local news media. Lini was the first woman to be elected to the Vanuatu Parliament in 1987 as a member of the National United Party. Motarilavoa Hilda Lini in 1989 .

    Fiji coup culture and political meddling in media education gets airing
    Pacific Media Watch Taieri MP Ingrid Leary reflected on her years in Fiji as a television journalist and media educator at a Fiji Centre function in Auckland celebrating Fourth Estate values and independence at the weekend. It was a reunion with former journalism professor David Robie — they had worked together as a team at

    Australia’s lowest paid workers just got a 3.5% wage increase. Their next boost could be even better
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Buchanan, Professor, Discipline of Business Information Systems, University of Sydney Business School, University of Sydney Carlos Castilla/Shutterstock A week ago, the Australian Financial Review released this year’s “Rich List”. It reported the number of billionaires in Australia increased from 150 to 166 between 2024 and 2025.

    What’s a ‘Strombolian eruption?’ A volcanologist explains what happened at Mount Etna
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Teresa Ubide, ARC Future Fellow and Associate Professor in Igneous Petrology/Volcanology, The University of Queensland Fabrizio Villa / Getty Images On Monday morning local time, a huge cloud of ash, hot gas and rock fragments began spewing from Italy’s Mount Etna. An enormous plume was seen stretching

    The Queensland government is cancelling renewable energy projects. Can the state still reach net zero?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Wood, Program Director, Energy, Grattan Institute Johan Larson/Shutterstock On the surface, Queensland’s new government is doing exactly what it pledged before winning office in October – repealing the state’s ambitious renewable energy targets and cancelling a huge pumped hydro project near Mackay. But since the start

    PNG’s Namah calls for tighter bio controls, patrols on Indonesian border
    By Scholar Kassas in Port Moresby A Papua New Guinea minister has raised concerns about “serious issues” at the PNG-Indonesia border due to a lack of proper security checkpoints. Culture and Tourism Minister Belden Namah, who is also the member for the border electorate Vanimo-Green, voiced these concerns while supporting a new Biosecurity for Plants

    Samoa parliament formally dissolved after months of uncertainty
    RNZ Pacific Samoa’s Parliament has been formally dissolved, and an early election is set to take place within three months. After months of political instability and two motions of no confidence, Prime Minister Fiāme Naomi Mata’afa said she would call for the dissolution of Parliament if cabinet did not support her government’s budget. MPs from

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Artist Janenne Eaton’s retrospective is a compelling account of our troubled times

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julie Shiels, Senior Industry Fellow, RMIT University

    Janenne Eaton R E E F 2015 enamel paint, vinyl decals, mirror and polymer clay on canvas Geelong Gallery Gift of the artist, 2019. Photographer: Mark Ashkanasy © the artist.

    With bad news-overload it is easy to conclude it is time to disengage. But troubling events don’t go away just because you stop looking. Janenne Eaton’s retrospective reminds us that art can provide new perspectives and a reason to look even harder.

    As a respected painter and teacher Eaton has influenced generations of Australian artists. She has exhibited extensively in museums and galleries nationally and internationally since 1978. Lines of Sight – Frame and Horizon is long overdue.

    This comprehensive exhibition is aesthetically and intellectually compelling. The paintings, drawings and installations offer complex, layered reflections on key moments from the last four decades.

    Rather than adopting a linear chronology, artworks are clustered to prompt dialogues between works across time. Eaton’s technical mastery and dexterity produces deliberate ambiguities. Her recognisable motifs and grid patterns convey rich ideas about human rights, colonisation, climate and First Nations justice, all underpinned by existential questions about uncertainty and meaning.

    Locked in or locked out?

    Supersized artworks populate the first space – Eaton’s underground car park drawings (1982–86) and two works using fences, from 2016 and 2019. Both series use layering to represent built structures, but proximity to each other in the gallery emphasises the differences.

    The dusty, velvety surfaces of the car parks emphasise volume and perspective. The fences made from acrylic board and high-gloss enamel flatten and compress space.

    In the carpark series, Eaton’s knowledge of art history is apparent in her Renaissance-influenced use of light and perspective. Texture and surface have been achieved by papering the canvas with found photocopies.

    Janenne Eaton, Adelaide I 1983, graphite, charcoal and photocopy toner on paper on canvas, Heide Museum of Modern Art, The Baillieu Myer Collection of the ‘80s.
    Photographer: Mark Ashkanasy, © the artist.

    Dense, sooty carbon extracted from ink-cartridges smothers the solid areas and light in touch graphite and charcoal drawing produce an underground environment that some may find contemplative and others sinister.

    They evoke an ambiguity of being simultaneously attracted and repelled. And there are sensory questions. Does it smell or echo? Is that the sun or artificial light? Is it hot or cold?

    This series reflects Eaton’s training in archaeology and draws attention to the cultural significance of subterranean spaces. In a time of geopolitical turbulence and endemic inequality other readings are open to us.

    By comparison, Fences, Borders, Walls (2016) makes clear who is locked in and who is locked out. The foreground dominates with hard-edged geometric forms; the word “fence” is mirrored and repeated, compromising its legibility but adding structural heft as a physical and psychological barrier.

    The small diamond grid is immediately legible in the middle ground as the chain-link barriers that kept men, women and children refugees incarcerated for indefinite periods on Manus and Nauru. The skilfully airbrushed background provides gradations of light and shade, suggesting the movement of bodies.

    Janenne Eaton, BORDERLANDS 2019, enamel paint on high-impact polystyrene, metal.
    Courtesy of the artist. Photographer: Mark Ashkanasy, © the artist.

    In Borderlands (2019), the grid is reprised and the phrase “keep clear” repeated and butted against two upended half skulls that stare out at the viewer. We are implicated as we peer back into our own reflections in the empty intervals of glossy black.

    Recognisable motifs

    Eaton reworks familiar imagery from popular culture, mass media and advertising – gunshot decals, slogans, road signs, everyday idioms. The immediate visual recognition invites us into her work and encourages us to look harder.

    Sometimes, the title and date alludes to a backstory. Banner for the Deputy Sheriff (2006) brings to mind depictions of John Howard as America’s “deputy sheriff”.

    Janenne Eaton, Banner for the Deputy Sheriff 2006, enamel paint on canvas, Courtesy of the artist. Photographer: Mark Ashkanasy, © the artist.

    A two-metre toy sheriff’s star floats on a painted ground of ranch-like planks. The mismatched scale of the two planes suggests the overblown self-importance of a leader desperate to ingratiate himself in Washington, rather than galvanise relationships with Australia’s Asian and Pacific neighbours. At the centre of the star, the upended moniker “Deputy Sheriff” surrounds a shooting target replete with a smudgy spatter.

    Bullet holes are regular motifs in Eaton’s compositions, as adhesive decals, perforations, or rendered in paint. Dark Star (2015) is a dense mix of bullet puncture holes, grids, stars and pop symbols and text. Like many of Eaton’s compositions, it is visually weighty.

    Nearest Neighbour Analysis (2021) is light and airy, as Eaton connects her field of evenly spaced bullet-hole decals with a network of lines, creating a painting devoid of signs of earthly life that is both cellular and paradoxically celestial.

    Janenne Eaton, Dark Star 2015, enamel paint and vinyl decals on canvas, Private collection. Photographer: Mark Ashkanasy, © the artist.

    OUTGO (2009) is a speculative visualisation of a digital realm. Eaton’s painting draws on the aesthetics of the screen and corrupted computer code. Constructed from multiple layers of bitmaps and pixelations, gobbledygook text and marzipan-coloured lozenges appear to float across the picture plane. It is oddly luscious and captivating.

    Eaton’s interest in archaeology and principles of stratification inform the layering processes in her artwork. Across the five rooms at Geelong Gallery, curator Jason Smith and Eaton have created a layered experience for the viewer.

    Janenne Eaton, OUTGO 2009, enamel paint on canvas, National Gallery of Victoria, Gift of the artist, 2019.
    Photographer: Mark Ashkanasy, © the artist.

    Aesthetic frissons, shifting ambiguities, hindsight and insight accumulate and become a complex account of the human condition in a time of flux and uncertainty. And it’s a potent reminder to look even harder.

    Lines of Sight – Frame and Horizon, is at Geelong Gallery until August 17.

    Julie Shiels does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Artist Janenne Eaton’s retrospective is a compelling account of our troubled times – https://theconversation.com/artist-janenne-eatons-retrospective-is-a-compelling-account-of-our-troubled-times-254069

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Former Congress staffer allowed to return to New Caledonia

    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk

    One of seven people transferred to mainland France almost a year ago, following the May 2024 riots in New Caledonia, has been allowed to return home, a French court has ruled.

    Frédérique Muliava, a former Congress staffer, was part of a group of six who were charged in relation to the riots.

    Under her new judicial requirements, set out by the judge in charge of the case, Muliava, once she returns to New Caledonia, is allowed to return to work, but must not make any contact with other individuals related to her case and not take part in any public demonstration.

    Four days after their arrest in Nouméa in June 2024, Muliava and six others were transferred to mainland France aboard a chartered plane.

    They were charged with criminal-related offences (including being a party or being accomplice to murder attempts and thefts involving the use of weapons) and have since been remanded in several prisons across France pending their trial.

    In January 2025, the whole case was removed from the jurisdiction of New Caledonia-based judges and has since been transferred back to investigating judges in mainland France.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The chicks are alright: what songbirds can teach us about divorce and moving on

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Frigg Janne Daan Speelman, PhD Candidate in Behavioural Ecology, Macquarie University

    Charli Davies, CC BY-NC-ND

    In humans, it’s very common for the traditional family structure of two parents raising children to change abruptly. Usually, this happens when the parents decide to separate.

    Many separated couples are able to navigate this change well to ensure their children are not overly affected. But this isn’t guaranteed. Parental separation can lead to behavioural, developmental and health issues in children. The effect can be long-lasting.

    That’s humans. But many other species have a similar arrangement in choosing a long-term mate to raise offspring. What effect does it have when these couples split up?

    In our new research, we examine what happens after a family split in a tropical bird species known for its long-lasting partnerships. To our surprise, we found the separation had no long term effect on the health of their offspring.

    Family drama on a tropical island

    Most birds form strong partnerships to raise offspring as a couple. Raising baby birds is an intense job. Having two parents at the nest is often essential for the survival of the chicks.

    The Seychelles warbler is no exception. These small songbirds live only on the Seychelles, northeast of Madagascar.

    They often pair for life and defend a territory together. The longest documented partnership is 15 years.

    Still, family life is not always perfect for these warblers. Of all warbler couples, about one in seven (14%) end in a separation.

    In these cases, one of the parents leaves their territory and finds a new mate elsewhere when there is still an egg, young chick or fledgling in their original nest.

    The Seychelles warbler lives on a few islands in the Seychelles. This is the view from Cousin Island, home to a long-studied population of these songbirds.
    Frigg Speelman, CC BY-NC-ND

    How do you know if a bird is stressed?

    For decades, a team of international researchers has studied the population of warblers on Cousin Island nature reserve. The dataset they have gathered includes information about the relationship status of all birds, as well as measures of their wellbeing, lifespan and how many offspring they produce.

    Using this data, we looked at what happened to the offspring of partners who had split up.

    We measured the stress levels of chicks who hatched just before the ending of their parents’ relationship up to the moment they reached adolescence.

    In humans, it’s common to measure stress by looking at the levels of cortisol in saliva and hair. But measuring stress in birds is a little different. To do this, we used three biomarkers which indicate physiological stress experienced by animals.

    The first is telomere length, the protective “caps” on the end of chromosomes which protect DNA against damage. The shorter the telomeres, the higher the stress.

    The second is the percentage of red blood cells in blood, which shows how well a warbler chick can use oxygen. The third is body condition, which indicates a bird’s fat reserves. These three markers let us gauge the stress levels and health of young warblers.

    We also wanted to know whether parental separation would have lifelong consequences for the chicks. To find this out, we compared chicks from separated parents to those with more stable nests and assessed how long they lived and how many offspring they produced.

    Warbler separation doesn’t stress chicks

    What we found was surprising. There was no evidence the separation of parents affected the stress levels of chicks or their long-term survival and breeding success.

    Why might this be?

    One reason is that these birds don’t linger on the past. They move on very quickly.

    When a partnership ends through separation or death, it opens up a vacancy – which can be quickly filled.

    When separation happens, one bird leaves. The remaining partner can find themselves left with offspring to take care of themselves.

    But parenting chicks is only half the story – nesting is also about territory. Cousin is a very small island of just 0.3 square kilometres with over 300 Seychelles warblers living on it.

    That means the space to breed is very limited. As a result, when vacancies arise they’re often filled just hours after separation.

    For the chicks, this means they now have a step-parent who can help raise them almost immediately. This means they don’t face a future with less parental care.

    Family life can be complicated for the Seychelles warbler. Separations leave quickly filled vacancies, where unrelated birds can help raise young.
    Charli Davies, CC BY-NC-ND

    That’s not all. The Seychelles warbler is known for an unusual arrangement in which breeding couples sometimes receive help from other warblers, known as cooperative breeding.

    On Cousin Island, there are more Seychelles warblers than there are breeding vacancies, meaning many adults can’t secure a partner and territory. These adults can join couples in established territories and help raise the offspring. This extra help may offset any reduced parental care after the ending of a partnership, meaning the offspring are still well off.

    What we can learn from this

    Our research shows Seychelles warbler chicks are better able to weather their parents separating than we expected.

    Importantly, this humble bird is just one of a huge group of species who form socially monogamous partnerships where both parents raise the offspring.

    Whether a parental relationship ending affects other species remains to be seen.

    Frigg Janne Daan Speelman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The chicks are alright: what songbirds can teach us about divorce and moving on – https://theconversation.com/the-chicks-are-alright-what-songbirds-can-teach-us-about-divorce-and-moving-on-256101

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Just the ticket? The problem with local body candidates aligning with national political parties

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julienne Molineaux, Senior Lecturer, School of Social Sciences and Humanities, Auckland University of Technology

    Getty Images

    With accusations flying thick and fast last year about supposed “dysfunction” and a “shambles” at Wellington City Council, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown stepped in and appointed a Crown Observer.

    Announcing the move, Brown said the “financial and behavioural challenges” facing the council represented a problem under the Local Government Act. Part of the issue, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon claimed recently, was that there had been “way too much ideology and party politics”.

    With the Green-endorsed current mayor Tory Whanau withdrawing from the next election, and former Labour cabinet minister Andrew Little announcing his mayoralty bid, it remains to be seen whether those partisan perceptions have diminished.

    But at the other end of the political spectrum, the ACT Party is actively recruiting candidates to stand at the 2025 elections using its branding and policy platform. The ACT website states clear policy positions for prospective candidates to campaign on.

    The Local Government Act, on the other hand, requires elected members to consult with people affected by their decisions and to do so with an open mind. Reinforcing this point, the Office of the Auditor-General says those managing public resources must avoid holding pre-determined positions:

    You are not required to approach every decision as though you have given it no prior thought, or have no existing knowledge or opinion. However, you are required to keep an open mind, and you must be prepared to change or adjust your views if the evidence or arguments warrant it.

    If ACT is successful in building a local government ticket nationally, this tension – and the kind of tensions recently at play in Wellington – could be seen in other councils.

    Benefits of party branding

    Political party affiliations in local government are not actually the norm. In 2019, winning councillors around New Zealand mostly left the affiliation section of their nomination forms blank (60%) or stated they were “independent” (18%).

    Only 3% of winning councillors were affiliated with a registered political party, and 4% with a local grouping or ticket.

    But the picture changes in our three largest councils: Auckland Council, Christchurch City Council and Wellington City Council. No winning councillors in those cities left the affiliation section blank in 2019, 38% ran on a local ticket, and 22% for a political party.

    And there are good reasons for local body candidates to run as party-endorsed or on a local ticket, as former local body politician Shirin Brown outlined in her PhD thesis on Local Boards in Auckland: shared costs, shared resources (such as party volunteers to deliver leaflets), shared expertise and brand recognition for voters.

    Importantly, a candidate with low name recognition can coat-tail on higher profile candidates on the same ticket, or the public profile of the ticket overall. Other research suggests the strategy works: in Auckland, at least, those who stand with a group affiliation are more likely to be elected than those who do not.

    In larger urban areas, with high populations and low levels of representation per capita, visible groupings of local government candidates make sense. Research reveals a major obstacle to voting in local elections is a lack of information about candidates and what they stand for.

    Blurred party lines

    Once elected, though, there are questions about the cohesion of groupings. Shirin Brown found the ad-hoc nature of some local tickets for Auckland’s local boards – formed for strategic election reasons but with little coherence or discipline once elected – sometimes collapsed once in office.

    In Auckland, ward councillors and the mayor have run with group branding, but there is little evidence of whipping along party, ticket or broad ideological lines.

    As a councillor for the Manukau ward (2016-2022), the late Efeso Collins stood for election as a Labour Party candidate, but he voted against some initiatives of the Mayor Phil Goff, a former leader of the Labour Party.

    Communities and Residents (C&R) councillors have mostly been aligned with the National Party, but have also included ACT and unaffiliated centre-right candidates.

    While they often voted against Goff, and earlier against Labour Party member Len Brown (mayor from 2010-2016), it wasn’t always as a uniform block. Indeed, Brown’s initiatives were simultaneously opposed by Cathy Casey (City Vision) on the left and Cameron Brewer (C&R) on the right.

    Keeping an open mind

    As this year’s local elections approach, the Crown Observer for Wellington City Council, Lindsay McKenzie, has written candidate guidelines about political affiliations and their legal obligations to avoid predetermined positions.

    These cover the promises they make on the campaign trail as well as how they act once elected. They address the tension between the democratic act of signalling your values and policy positions to voters, and the requirement under the Local Government Act to make decisions based on local concerns rather than political affiliation.

    As McKenzie points out, having an open mind is not just an issue for party members. It also applies to those who stand as independents and adhere rigidly to policy positions they campaigned on.

    Irrespective of their affiliation, candidates in the upcoming local elections have a tightrope to walk – between declaring their values and policy positions, and being receptive to new information and perspectives once elected.

    Voters need to accept elected members may have access to information that was not available when they were campaigning. And the political media needs to give some leeway to councillors and mayors who change their positions.

    Julienne Molineaux does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Just the ticket? The problem with local body candidates aligning with national political parties – https://theconversation.com/just-the-ticket-the-problem-with-local-body-candidates-aligning-with-national-political-parties-257887

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Not available in your region’: what is a VPN and how can I use one safely?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Meena Jha, Head Technology and Pedagogy Cluster CML-NET, CQUniversity Australia

    Linaimages/Shutterstock

    “This video is not available in your location”. It’s a message familiar to many people trying to watch global content online. But beneath this frustration lies a deeper question – how do we navigate digital borders safely and ethically?

    As our digital lives expand, so too does our desire for access. Maybe you want to see the latest streaming shows before they arrive in your country. Maybe you’re a sports fan wanting to watch live broadcasts of international events. Or perhaps you need to log into your company’s secure intranet while at home or overseas.

    Enter the virtual private network (VPN) – a technology that’s become as essential as antivirus software for many. With many commercial and free VPN providers on the market, interest in these services has grown in recent years.

    How does a VPN work?

    A VPN is like a secure tunnel between your device and the internet. When you use a VPN, your internal traffic is scrambled into unreadable data and routed through a remote server, which also masks your real IP address.

    Think of it like this: instead of sending a postcard with your return address, you send it in an envelope to a trusted friend overseas who mails it on your behalf. To anyone looking at the envelope, it looks like the message came from your friend and not you.

    This technique shields your identity, protects your data from snoopers, and tricks websites into thinking you are browsing from another location.

    While often marketed as tools for online privacy, VPNs have grown popular for another reason: access.

    Many people use VPNs to access geo-blocked content, secure their internet activity, work remotely – especially when handling sensitive data – and protect against online tracking and targeted advertising.



    Read more:
    What does it mean to ‘accept’ or ‘reject’ all cookies, and which should I choose?

    VPNs are legal, if a bit grey

    VPN services are offered by dozens of providers globally. Companies such as NordVPN, ProtonVPN, ExpressVPN and Surfshark offer paid subscriptions with strong security guarantees. Free VPNs also exist but come with caveats (more on this in a moment).

    In most countries, including Australia, using a VPN is completely legal.

    However, what makes it murky is what one might use it for. While using a VPN is legal, engaging in illegal activities while using one remains prohibited.

    Streaming services like Netflix or Disney+ license content by region. Using a VPN to access a foreign catalogue may violate their terms of service and potentially be grounds for account suspension.

    Australian law does not criminalise accessing geo-blocked content via VPN, but the copyright act does prohibit circumventing “technological protection measures” in certain cases.

    The grey area lies in enforcement. Technically, copyright law does ban getting around certain protections. However, the latest advice does not mention any cases where regular users have been taken to court for this kind of behaviour.

    So far, enforcement has mostly targeted websites and platforms that host or enable large-scale copyright infringement; not everyday viewers who want to watch a show a bit early.

    Beware of ‘free’ VPNs

    Not all VPNs are created equal. While premium services invest in strong encryption and privacy protections, free VPNs often make money by collecting user data – the very thing you may be trying to avoid.

    Risks of unsafe VPNs include data leaks, injection of ads or trackers into your browsing, and malware and spyware, especially in free mobile apps that claim to provide a VPN service.

    Using a poorly designed or dishonest VPN is like hiring a bodyguard who sells your location. It might give the impression of safety, but you may actually be more vulnerable than before.

    Okay, so how do I choose a VPN?

    With so many VPNs available, both free and paid, it can be hard to know which one to trust. If you are considering a VPN, here are five things to look for.

    No-log policy. A trustworthy VPN should have a strict no-log policy, meaning it does not store any records of your internet activity, connection time or IP address. This ensures even if the VPN provider is hacked, subpoenaed or pressured by a government, they have nothing to hand over.

    Strong encryption standards. Encryption is what makes your data unreadable to anyone snooping on your connection, such as hackers on public WiFi or your internet provider. A somewhat technical thing to look out for is AES 256-bit encryption – it’s extremely secure and is used by banks and governments.

    Independent audits. Reliable VPN services voluntarily undergo third-party audits to verify their privacy claims and the security of their infrastructure.

    Kill switch. A kill switch is a critical safety feature that automatically blocks internet traffic if the VPN connection drops. This prevents your real IP address and data from being exposed, even momentarily.

    Jurisdiction. VPNs are subject to the laws of the country they are based in. The countries in the Five Eyes intelligence alliance (Australia, Canada, United Kingdom, United States and New Zealand) may legally compel providers to hand over user data. If a VPN service has a strict no-log policy and does not collect information about what you do online, then even under legal pressure, there is nothing to hand over. So, you are safe.

    In an era of growing surveillance, cybercrime and corporate data collection, VPNs are essential tools for reclaiming your online privacy and data.

    But like any tool, the effectiveness (and ethics) of VPNs depend on how you use them. Next time you fire up your VPN, ask yourself – am I just dodging a digital border, or actively protecting my online freedom?

    Meena Jha does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘Not available in your region’: what is a VPN and how can I use one safely? – https://theconversation.com/not-available-in-your-region-what-is-a-vpn-and-how-can-i-use-one-safely-256559

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ship runs aground in Fiji – then its rescue vessel capsizes

    RNZ Pacific

    Fiji’s Maritime Safety Authority has launched an investigation into Goundar Shipping Limited following two incidents involving its vessels.

    Late last month, one vessel ran aground on the reef of Ono-i-Lau, and villagers had to step in to ferry stranded passengers to nearby islands using small boats.

    On Monday, the Lomaiviti Princess II was sent to assist with salvage operations of the grounded boat in Ono-i-Lau.

    But the rescue boat never made it as it capsized in Suva Harbour, where it remains on its side.

    The company’s managing director George Goundar told local media “the mishap at Suva Harbour regarding the Lomaiviti Princess II was not the works of the company”.

    He directed all questions to the Fiji Ports Cooperation.

    Maritime Safety declines comment
    FBC News has asked the ports cooperation for comment, but the outlet reported the Maritime Safety Authority had refused to comment further.

    Minister Ro Filipe Tuisawau said the matter was under investigation and a release would be issued after he received an update on the matter.

    On May 29, the company posted on social media about the first incident, saying “GSL Management would like to sincerely thank the people of Ono-i-Lau for your tremendous support following the mishap”.

    “We acknowledge and appreciate your assistance in ensuring the passengers were safely brought ashore.

    “The vessel is now en route to Suva.”

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian airfields could derail Russia’s war efforts

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University

    The drone attacks by Ukrainian Operation Spider’s Web forces on Russian airfields have called into question Russia’s supposed military strength.

    Russian authorities have acknowledged damage from the June 1 attacks — an unusual admission that suggests the strikes were probably effective, given Russia’s usual pattern of downplaying or denying the success of Ukrainian operations.

    The operation’s most significant target was the Belaya air base, north of Mongolia. Belaya, like the other bases targeted, is a critical component in the Russian Air Force’s strategic strike capabilities because it houses planes capable of long-range nuclear and conventional strikes.

    It’s also in Irkutsk, approximately 4,500 kilometres from the front lines in Ukraine.



    Read more:
    Ukraine drone strikes on Russian airbase reveal any country is vulnerable to the same kind of attack

    Ukraine’s ability to successfully strike Belaya — an attempted strike at the even more distant Ukrainka air base failed — probably won’t have much of a military impact on the war. But along with successful attacks on other Russian airfields and the strike at the Kerch Bridge in Crimea, Operation Spider Web’s successes could play a strategic role in the conflict.

    These attacks could shift what has become increasingly negative media coverage and public perception about Ukraine’s chances in the war over the last year. In a war of attrition, which the conflict in Ukraine has become, establishing a belief in victory is a pre-condition for success.

    Explosions hit the Kerch Bridge in Russia on June 3, 2025. (The Independent)

    Increased pessimism

    Policymakers and pundits, instead of recognizing their expectations of a Ukrainian victory in 2023 were unrealistic, have often declared that the war is unwinnable for Ukraine.

    This perspective was even more prevalent following United States President Donald Trump’s resumption of power in January 2025. In the Oval Office spat Trump had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in late February, he declared Ukraine did not “have the cards” to defeat Russia.

    This turned out to be false. Ukraine’s army may possess significantly less military hardware and fewer soldiers than Russia’s, but war is often a continuation of politics. Politically, Russia faces several issues that could derail its war efforts.

    Russian vulnerabilities

    Russia’s military capabilities are important to Russian nationalists, who make up Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s core constituency. Russian military forces have advanced along nearly all fronts in Ukraine over the last year.

    These advances, however, have largely been insignificant. Furthermore, they have emphasized Russia’s military weakness, which is an ongoing affront to Russian nationalists.

    Not only have Russian military advances over the last year not changed the war in a strictly military sense, but the pace of advance has been incredibly slow. Over the last year, Russian forces have captured 5,107 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory. This territory represents less than one per cent of Ukraine’s pre-war territory.

    In exchange for what amounts to negligible gains, Russian armed forces have suffered significant casualties.

    Both Russia and Ukraine carefully guard the number of casualties their forces have suffered in the war. The British Ministry of Defence, however, estimates that Russia will have suffered more than a million casualties in the war by the end of this month. The Russian casualty rate is also accelerating, with an estimated 160,000 casualties in the first four months of 2025.

    Russia attempts to compensate for this battlefield devastation in two ways.

    First, it’s isolated Ukraine by manipulating Trump’s desire for political wins and business deals. Russia, in appearing to seek an end to the conflict while offering no concessions, has stoked tensions between Zelenskyy and Trump, where there was little love lost between the two to begin with.

    Second, Russia has increased its attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Large-scale bombing does little to help Russia on the battlefield. The attacks, in fact, put its forces at a disadvantage by redirecting munitions from military targets.

    Attacks on civilians

    The attacks on civilian infrastructure, however, are more about instilling fear in the Ukrainian population and demonstrating American impotence to a Russian audience.

    Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian cities also highlight Russia’s trump card: nuclear weapons. Russia, and specifically former Russian president Dimitry Medvedev, has repeatedly threatened nuclear war in an attempt to dissuade Ukraine’s supporters.

    By bombing Ukrainian cities, albeit with conventional munitions, Russia seeks to demonstrate its ability to deploy even more destructive weapons should the situation call for it.

    These Russian military missteps, combined with a Russian economy that is structurally unsound, means that Russia’s war effort is increasingly fragile.

    Weakening Asian alliances

    Ukraine’s attack on Belaya also signals Russian weakness to its nominal allies in Asia.

    Since the start of hostilities, Russia has relied on the tacit consent of China. This support has taken the form of China purchasing Russian crude oil to maintain the Russian economy and Chinese citizens unofficially fighting for Russia.

    Belaya has been a vital element of Russia’s deterrence strategy in Asia, which has come to rely more heavily on the Russian strategic nuclear threat. The inability of Russia to protect one of its key strategic assets from a Ukrainian drone attack, combined with the weakness of Russian conventional forces in Ukraine, erodes its ability to position itself as a key ally to China.

    In fact, some Russian authorities continue to view China as a major threat.

    At the same time, Operation Spider’s Web gives hope to the Ukrainian people. It may also cause Trump — who prefers to back winners — to ponder whether it’s Putin, not Zelenskyy, who lacks the cards to win the war.

    James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian airfields could derail Russia’s war efforts – https://theconversation.com/ukraines-drone-attacks-on-russian-airfields-could-derail-russias-war-efforts-258049

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Chagos islands: how Mauritius can turn a diplomatic triumph into real economic growth

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Dev K (Roshan) Boojihawon, Associate professor of Strategy and International Business, University of Birmingham

    The decades-long Chagos islands dispute has finally entered a new chapter. The UK officially agreed to return the sovereignty of the archipelago to Mauritius.

    The Indian Ocean islands are strategically situated near key shipping lanes and regional power hubs.

    Mauritius was granted independence from British colonial rule in 1968. But not the Chagos islands, which had been part of Mauritius but became a new colonial territory. The residents of the largest island in the archipelago, Diego Garcia, were forced off the land. This was used as a base to support US military operations.



    Read more:
    Mauritius’ next growth phase: a new plan is needed as the tax haven era fades

    Now Mauritius has regained control over the islands while leasing Diego Garcia to the UK for a 99-year period for US$136 million a year. This gives the UK (and its ally the US) access to a vital maritime corridor for global trade and power projection.

    But now that the deal has been signed, there’s a more pressing question. Can Mauritius use it as the foundation for justice and economic progress?

    As scholars of strategic economic development we often focus on Africa and Mauritius in particular. We believe the agreement marks an important geopolitical moment. It rights a colonial wrong, honours international justice and cements Mauritius’s global standing.

    It also presents an opportunity to fund inclusive development and sustainability initiatives for Mauritius. It could boost investments in education, health and infrastructure. It could also support the resettlement of displaced Chagossians, and advance marine conservation, renewable energy and climate resilience programmes in the archipelago.

    Aerial view of Diego Garcia and the Chagos archipelago.
    NASA/Wikimedia Commons

    The real challenge facing the Mauritian government is how to turn a diplomatic triumph into tangible national progress. We argue that what’s needed is a forward looking and inclusive strategy.

    The development challenge

    Reparations can offer short-term financial relief. But without visionary planning, there’s a risk of these funds being absorbed into recurrent government spending. Or used for symbolic programmes with limited structural and socio-economic impact.

    The real value lies in what Mauritius does next. Investment in strategic sectors such as the blue economy, renewable energy, digital infrastructure and sustainable tourism is the key.

    Investment should strengthen partnerships with regional neighbours, international donors, and strategic allies like the US, China and India. Mauritius must position itself as a forward-looking state with global relevance.



    Read more:
    How the US and UK worked together to recolonise the Chagos Islands and evict Chagossians

    The reparations should be treated as seed funding to invest in its own future. This means using the funds to drive bold, long-term transformation. The country needs to build a more resilient, innovative and globally competitive economy.

    Mauritius is heavily reliant on offshore services and short-term fiscal gains. It is vulnerable to slow diversification, rising youth unemployment, climate-related risks, lagging digital and technological progress, and growing global scrutiny of its financial sector.

    To remain competitive in the current volatile global context, the country must develop more broadly.

    3 steps to take

    1. Investment

    Mauritius has historically relied on external financial inflows like tourism revenue, offshore finance and foreign aid. By channelling funds into capacity-building, skills development and innovation ecosystems, the country can cultivate a self-sustaining economy. This would position it better to seize opportunities in the green economy, digital transformation and knowledge-intensive industries.

    More specifically, it needs to:

    • secure investment in green energy, AI-digital infrastructure and high-tech manufacturing

    • offer tax incentives and streamlined regulatory processes to attract foreign direct investment in these sectors

    • establish public-private partnerships to develop innovation hubs and research centres focused on emerging technologies

    • launch workforce development programmes to upskill the labour force.

    2. Economic diplomacy, alliances and regional leverage

    The government should forge stronger partnerships with the UK and the US. Key areas include defence, cybersecurity, climate and sustainability innovations and regional logistics infrastructure.

    It needs strong ties as power blocs shift and competition over strategic resources and trade routes grows.

    Joint military exercises and intelligence sharing could improve forces’ ability to help each other. Investing in advanced cyber defence capabilities, for instance, can help counter emerging digital threats, such as data breaches affecting financial services and e-governance systems.

    These steps would bolster national security and reinforce Mauritius’ position as a reliable partner.

    The resolution of the Chagos dispute provides an opportunity for Mauritius to use its geopolitical position. It could expand trade, diplomatic influence and strategic partnerships across Africa, Asia and beyond.

    Being located between Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and Southeast Asia places it along major maritime trade routes.

    Mauritius enjoys political stability, democratic governance and strong legal framework. It is well placed to help resolve regional disputes over maritime boundary conflicts, fishing rights, and freedom of navigation. These involve countries like India, Sri Lanka and Madagascar, and even China and the US.

    It can also lead in developing shared logistics and resupply hubs to support regional trade, disaster response and maritime security operations.

    3. Chagossian justice

    Mauritius must make the Chagossian community part of its next national success story. Including them in economic plans is a legal, moral and strategic necessity.

    Steps should include:

    • incorporating Chagos representatives in economic discussions and decision-making processes

    • establishing programmes for Chagossian cultural preservation and economic development

    • giving Chagossians a voice in shaping the future of their ancestral lands.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Chagos islands: how Mauritius can turn a diplomatic triumph into real economic growth – https://theconversation.com/chagos-islands-how-mauritius-can-turn-a-diplomatic-triumph-into-real-economic-growth-257774

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Even if Putin and Zelenskyy do go face-to-face, don’t expect wonders − their one meeting in 2019 ended in failure

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Anna Batta, Associate Professor of International Security Studies, Air University

    Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrive at the Elysee Palace in Paris in 2019. Ian Langsdon/Pool Photo via AP

    Delegations from Ukraine and Russia met for a second time in Istanbul in a month on June 2, 2025. Missing, again, were the country’s two leaders.

    For a fleeting moment ahead of the first meeting in mid-May 2025, there existed the faintest prospect that Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine would join, sitting down in the same room for face-to-face talks.

    But it didn’t happen; few expected it would. On that occasion, Putin refused Zelenskyy’s offer of face-to-face talks in Istanbul.

    Even though neither leader met in the Istanbul summits, they have met before.

    In Paris in 2019, the two men sat down together as part of what was known as the Normandy Format talks. As a scholar of international relations, I have interviewed people involved in the talks. Some five years on, the way the talks floundered and then failed can offer lessons about the challenges today’s would-be mediators now face.

    Initial hopes

    The Normandy Format talks started on the sidelines of events in June 2014 commemorating the 70th anniversary of the D-Day landings. The aim was to try to resolve the ongoing conflict between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatist groups in the country’s Donbas region in the east. That conflict had recently escalated, with pro-Russian separatists seizing key towns in the Donetsk and Luhansk after Russia illegally annexed the peninsula of Crimea in February 2014.

    The talks continued periodically until 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Until that point, most of the discussion was framed by two deals, the Minsk accords of 2014 and 2015, which set out the terms for a ceasefire between Kyiv and the Moscow-armed rebel groups and the conditions for elections in Donetsk and Luhansk.

    By the time of the sixth meeting in December 2019, the only time Zelenkyy and Putin have met in person, some still hoped that the Minsk accords could form a framework for peace.

    Under discussion

    Zelenskyy was only a few months into his presidency. He arrived in Paris with fresh energy and a desire to find peace.

    His electoral campaign had centered on the promise of putting an end to the unrest in Donbas, which had been rumbling on for years. The increasing role of Russia in the conflict, through supporting rebels financially and with volunteer Russian soldiers, had complicated and escalated fighting, and many Ukrainians were weary of the impact of internally displaced people that it caused.

    By all accounts, Zelenskyy went into Paris believing that he could make a deal with Putin.

    “I want to return with concrete results,” Zelenskyy said just days before meeting Putin. By then, the Ukrainian president’s only contact with Putin had been over the phone. “I want to see the person and I want to bring from Normandy understanding and feeling that everybody really wants gradually to finish this tragic war,” Zelenskyy said, adding, “I can feel it for sure only at the table.”

    One of Putin’s main concerns going into the talks was the lifting of Western sanctions imposed in response to the annexation of Crimea.

    But the Russian president also wanted to keep Russia’s smaller neighbor under its influence. Ukraine gained independence after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. But in the early years of the new century, Russia began to exert increasing influence over the politics of its neighbor. This ended in 2014, when a popular revolution ousted pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and ushered in a pro-Western government.

    More than anything, Russia wanted to arrest this shift and keep Ukraine out of the European Union and NATO.

    Those desires – Ukraine’s to end the war in Donbas, and Russia’s to curb the West’s involvement in Ukraine – formed the parameters for the Normandy talks.

    And for some time, there appeared to be momentum to find compromise. French President Emmanuel Macron said that the 2019 Paris talks had broken years of stalemate and relaunched the peace process. Putin’s assessment was that the peace process was “developing in the right direction.” Zelenskyy’s view was a little less enthusisastic: “Let’s say for now it’s a draw.”

    Talking past each other

    Yet the Putin-Zelenskyy meeting in 2019 ultimately ended in failure. In retrospect, both sides were talking past each other and could not reach agreement on the sequencing of key parts of the peace plan.

    Zelenskyy wanted the security provisions of the Minsk accords, including a lasting ceasefire and the securing of Ukraine’s border with Russia, in place before proceeding with regional elections on devolving autonomy to the regions. Putin was adamant that the elections come first.

    The success of the Normandy talks were also hindered by Putin’s refusal to acknowledge that Russia was a party to the conflict. Rather, he framed the Donbas conflict as a civil war between the Ukrainian government and the rebels. Russia’s role was simply to push the rebels to the negotiating table in this take – a view that was greeted with skepticism by Ukraine and the West.

    As a result, the Normandy talks stalled. And then in February 2022, Russian launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

    Way forward today?

    The nascent negotiations between Ukraine and Russia that began in Istanbul in May 2025 represent the first real attempt to bring high-level delegations of both sides together since 2019.

    Many of the same challenges remain. The talks still revolve around the issues of security, the status of Donetsk and Luhansk, and prisoner exchanges – that last point being the only one in which common ground appears to be found, both in 2019 and now.

    But there are major differences – not least, three years of actual direct war. Russia can no longer deny that it is a party of the conflict, even if Moscow frames the war as a special military operation to “denazify” and demilitarize Ukraine.

    And three years of war have changed how the questions of Crimea and the Donbas are framed.

    In the Normandy talks, there was no talk of recognizing Russian control over any Ukrainian territory. But recent U.S. efforts to negotiate peace have included a “de-jure” U.S. recognition of Russian control in Crimea, plus “de-facto recognition” of Russia’s occupation of nearly all of Luhansk oblast and the occupied portions of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

    Another major difference between the negotiation process then and now is who is mediating.

    The Normandy negotiations were led by European leaders – German Chancellor Angela Merkel and President Macron of France. Throughout the whole Normandy talks process, only Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia were involved as active participants.

    Today, it is the United States taking the lead.

    And this suits Putin. A constant issue for Putin of the Normandy talks was that Germany and France were never neutral mediators.

    In President Donald Trump, Putin has found a U.S. leader who, at least at first, appeared eager to take on the mantle from Europe.

    But like the Europeans involved in the Normandy talks, Trump too is encountering similar barriers to any meaningful progress.

    Members of Ukrainian and Russian delegations attend peace talks on June 2, 2025, in Istanbul.
    Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs via Getty Images

    The Istanbul negotiations on May 16, 2025, were less productive than many people hoped. A proposed 30-day ceasefire agreement didn’t come to fruition; instead the parties agreed on a prisoner-exchange deal. Follow-up talks on June 2 ended after barely an hour, according to Turkish officials. Again, one point agreed on was a prisoner swap.

    The Paris peace talks, too, led to a prisoner exchange – but little more. It appears that getting the leaders of Ukraine and Russia to agree on anything more ambitious is as elusive now as it was when Putin and Zelenskyy met in 2019.

    The views expressed in this article represent the personal views of the author and are not necessarily the views of the Department of Defense or of the Department of the Air Force.

    – ref. Even if Putin and Zelenskyy do go face-to-face, don’t expect wonders − their one meeting in 2019 ended in failure – https://theconversation.com/even-if-putin-and-zelenskyy-do-go-face-to-face-dont-expect-wonders-their-one-meeting-in-2019-ended-in-failure-257093

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘That was rude’: why the new Broadway musical Death Becomes Her was ripe for TikTok memes

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Gregory Camp, Senior Lecturer, School of Music, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    A few snippets of musicalised dialogue from the cast album of the new Broadway musical Death Becomes Her – with music and lyrics by Julia Mattison and Noel Carey, and a book by Marco Pennette – have recently become trending sonic memes on TikTok.

    In all sorts of situations, users are lip synching to audio clips of Broadway star Jennifer Simard, in the character of Helen Sharp (played by Goldie Hawn in the 1992 cult film on which the musical is based), saying things like “That was rude. That was pretty fuckin’ rude” and “She stole my life. She made me cuckoo. She’s why I spent four years locked in that health spa.”

    Musical theatre fans love a good meme (scholar Trevor Boffone has written a whole book about the phenomenon) and Death Becomes Her is primed to create a lot of them: a show featuring two divas (played by Simard and Megan Hilty as Madeleine Ashton, Meryl Streep’s role in the movie) based on a cult film about divas begs to be shaped and reshaped by fan culture.

    Helen and Madeleine are longtime rivals who both take a magic potion that makes them immortal. This leads them to find increasingly extravagant ways to try and do away with each other, with the help of Helen’s put-upon husband Ernest (Christopher Sieber), a plastic surgeon who reluctantly falls into the role of restoring their bodies after each “accident”.

    Some of Hilty’s clips have also been TikTok-ified (notably Tell Me, Earnest) but Simard is winning the numbers game. Her “That was rude” clip alone has 321,000 videos and counting.

    Finding the patter

    There seem to be two main reasons for the attraction of these clips. First is Simard’s delivery of the words. Simard is a longstanding Broadway star and an expert at musical comedy timing.

    Second is the rhythmic quality of the dialogue. Not fully sung, these bits are spoken in mostly strict rhythm over orchestral accompaniment. That they have become such earworms demonstrates it is not only melody that burrows into the brain, but also rhythmic contour.

    There is a long history of this style of speak-singing in musical theatre, notably popularised in the late 1950s by Robert Preston in The Music Man and Rex Harrison in My Fair Lady.

    Neither of those actors was a strong singer, but both had excellent timing and were able to deliver spoken lines above music with a strong sense of musicality.

    Simard is an excellent singer with a very wide range, but the comic role of Helen – ever the underdog to her rival famous actress Madeleine – lends itself to this style of heightened speech.

    Most effective rhythmically, and the most popular excerpt, is the “That was rude” meme, where Simard begins slowly without accompaniment; the bass comes in on “rude” and sets a groove for the rest of the short excerpt.

    This one has been used in every possible situation, from responses to nasty notes left on people’s cars to complaints about incorrect drink orders. Some of the TikTokers refer to Simard in on-screen text, but this one seems to have become popular outside any specific reference to the show, in a truly viral moment.

    Ripe for the lip-sync

    The lengthiest of the trending excerpts is the one that begins with “We talked about killing her before”, which sets off a monologue about Helen’s plan to do away with Madeline once and for all.

    This is a tour de force for Simard’s comic timing, as it begins in free rhythm and then gradually takes on a more consistent beat. TikTokers are tending to use this one primarily as a demonstration of their lip-syncing skills, as opposed to the other shorter clips that are applied in different ironic situations.

    This trend also shows the continuing importance of the cast album in musical theatre culture. The majority of TikTokers probably have not seen the show, currently only playing on Broadway with high ticket prices. Yet the cast album (easily available on all the main streaming sites) gives access.

    The fact these clips come from a cast album also more easily allows fans to create their own visuals around it. Unless they actually saw the show they only have production photographs and short publicity clips (and the occasional shaky bootleg or slime tutorial) to go on in terms of what it looks like.

    Audio from a source like the soundtrack of the Wicked movie has not led to so many lip-sync videos because the visual track is so readily accessible; as a film, Wicked’s visuals define its audio while a cast album can more easily work the other way round.

    Beyond Broadway

    I saw Death Becomes Her on Broadway in January and enjoyed it. It’s a fun show full of special effects and comic bits. The score is serviceable (it’s not Sondheim), but it is catchy – very important for its use in these TikTok trends – and well performed by Simard and the rest of the cast.

    This whole phenomenon demonstrates that the current cultural sphere of “Broadway” extends well beyond the street itself. This has been the case at least since the rise of the cast album in the 1950s (My Fair Lady’s was the best-selling LP of 1956), but now the reach is intensified by social media spaces like TikTok; you don’t have to have actually seen Death Becomes Her to experience it.

    Gregory Camp does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘That was rude’: why the new Broadway musical Death Becomes Her was ripe for TikTok memes – https://theconversation.com/that-was-rude-why-the-new-broadway-musical-death-becomes-her-was-ripe-for-tiktok-memes-257550

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: In the trade wars, there are lessons for the US from Brexit. Australia and our trading partners should take note

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Draper, Professor, and Executive Director: Institute for International Trade, and Director of the Jean Monnet Centre of Trade and Environment, University of Adelaide

    General_4530/Getty

    While the Trump administration’s on-again, off-again trade wars wreak havoc on the business plans of the world’s exporters, the risks to the global economy continue to grow.

    The self-inflicted scale of disruption to global trade patterns is enormous. Yet there are echoes with the United Kingdom’s experience of Brexit, both for the United States economy now and its trading partners worried about their trading futures.

    Fortunately, while it is painful, Trump’s push toward economic isolationism brings opportunities for other trading nations to strengthen their ties.

    This is especially the case in our Indo-Pacific region, where Australia is looking to new trade partners and deepening existing ties.

    The economic consequences of Brexit

    The UK economy is relatively diminished since 2016, when David Cameron, as Prime Minister, called the Brexit referendum on whether to leave the European Union.

    A study of UK businesses found three key impacts in the three years before formal Brexit took place in 2020:

    1. the UK’s decision to leave the European Union generated major, sustained, uncertainty for the business community. Since business invests and trades, that was highly consequential
    2. anticipation of Brexit gradually reduced investment by about 11% between 2016 and 2019
    3. Brexit reduced UK productivity by between 2% and 5%.

    A new report establishes that since 2020, when formal Brexit took place, the UK is experiencing its worst trade slump in a generation. This decline contrasts with growing trade in other industrial nations, indicating the COVID pandemic was not to blame.

    Harsh lessons in bargaining power

    The EU did not change to suit the UK. Rather, because of the EU’s influential role in regulation known as the “Brussels effect”, the UK must realign with EU standards to win back market access.

    For decades, the UK had ceded its trade bargaining capacity to Brussels. It was always on the back foot as its inexperienced negotiators locked horns with seasoned EU trade diplomats.

    The British also learned that outside the EU, their relative trade bargaining power, as well as foreign policy prestige, was much diminished. Many countries focused on dealing with the EU without the UK’s involvement.

    Overall, it is difficult to escape the conclusion that Brexit hastened the UK’s inexorable transformation from “Great” to “Little” Britain.

    MAGA echoes

    The Brexiteers were motivated by free trade and the belief EU trade policies prevented the UK from more liberalisation.

    Trump’s decision to disentangle the US from world trade is motivated by protectionist desires, in the mistaken belief blocking imports will “Make America Great Again”.

    Like the Brexiteers, Trump will find business confidence will diminish and the US economy will be worse off. Data this week showed US manufacturing contracted for the third straight month in May amid tariff-induced supply chain delays.

    Just like the UK, US economic decline relative to its trading partners will accelerate.

    Obviously, a huge difference between British folly and US hubris is that the US has market and geopolitical power in most of its bilateral negotiations, whereas the UK did not.

    Yet, whereas the Trump administration assumes the US is the more powerful party in all reciprocal tariff negotiations, it is now learning that some major trading powers (China, the EU, India), and even some middle powers (Canada, Mexico, Australia), will not simply roll over when faced with overt coercion.

    Moreover, as Great Britain learned to its cost, the US will find its soft power rapidly diminishing, and foreign policy objectives more difficult to attain. US allies, while in some cases in need of weaning themselves from over-dependence on the US military umbrella, are now actively hedging their security bets.

    What should trading partners do?

    There is an opening for Australia to seize the moment with new trade partnerships, and by deepening existing relationships.

    We have a golden opportunity in our chairmanship of the 12-nation Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership group this year.

    This high-standards, deeply liberalising, trade agreement is a gold standard template to anchor our global trading partnerships. Members include Canada, Japan, Mexico, Singapore and the UK and representatives will be meeting in Brisbane next week.

    Specifically, Australia, our trans-Pacific partners and the EU need to agree to work collaboratively to converge on modern trade rules and support for free trade. Then take those accords into the World Trade Organization to strengthen and revitalise the institution, with or without the US.

    In addition, we need to quickly conclude both the stalled bilateral free-trade agreement with the EU, and the second phase of our trade agreement with India. This would cement two huge new markets of sufficient existing (EU) and potential (India) scale to rival both the US and Chinese markets.

    Finally, we need to double down on our existing trade partnerships with Southeast Asian countries, anchoring on the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). This will bolster ASEAN-centrality in regional trade arrangements and balance both US withdrawal and China’s advance into the region.

    While this will not be easy, the effort has to be made and needs to start now.

    Peter Draper does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. In the trade wars, there are lessons for the US from Brexit. Australia and our trading partners should take note – https://theconversation.com/in-the-trade-wars-there-are-lessons-for-the-us-from-brexit-australia-and-our-trading-partners-should-take-note-257555

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: With a government review underway, we have to ask why children bully other kids

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marilyn Campbell, Professor, School of Early Childhood & Inclusive Education, Queensland University of Technology

    Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock

    The federal government has launched a “rapid review” to look at what works to prevent bullying in schools.

    Led by mental health experts, the review will underpin a new national standard to respond to bullying. This follows the death of a young Sydney school student last year.

    It also comes as the Queensland government rolls out a A$33 million anti-bullying plan in the state’s schools.

    As schools, parents and governments look at what more can be done to prevent bullying, we have to ask why children bully other kids.

    If we understand the motives, we can help these children change their behaviour – and achieve their goals or have their needs met in other ways.



    Read more:
    What can you do if your child is being bullied?

    What lies behind bullying?

    Research tells us children broadly bully for social reasons. For example, a 2022 study showed children can bully to gain social status among peers – to be seen as powerful, tough or cool. Or they can bully to maintain status as part of an in-group. Perhaps another child is seen as a “threat” to that status.

    Children can also bully for revenge for perceived insults. Or for entertainment – making a joke at another student’s expense.

    Research shows motivations can also differ depending on the type of bullying. For example, face-to-face bullying seems to involve more children who bully for social dominance, while those who cyberbully do it more for entertainment and “fun”.

    In a 2014 study, Marilyn Campbell and colleagues asked different groups about their perceptions of why young people engaged in cyber-bullying. Parents said children did it out of revenge for being bullied themselves, teachers said students did it for fun, and students thought others cyber-bullied because of peer pressure.

    This highlights how complex understanding children’s motives can be.



    Read more:
    Why do kids bully? And what can parents do about it?

    Children may not bully for long

    We should be careful about thinking of all students who bully as long-term “bullies”.

    Most children who bully try the behaviour and stop when it does not get them what they want, just as many children who are victimised are not bullied for long.

    Though of course, even being bullied for a short time can still be damaging and traumatic for the student on the receiving end.

    This could suggest there is a developmental phase in bullying as most bullying occurs between children in Year 6 through to Year 10.

    However, there are those students who persistently bully others and these are the students whose behaviour remains a problem despite interventions and prevention approaches.

    Who is more likely to bully?

    There are certain personality types who are more likely to persistently bully others. These include:

    But research is mixed on the question of self-esteem. Some researchers say children who bully have high self-esteem, yet others have found they have low self-esteem.

    There are many reasons why a child might develop the personality traits that would lead them to bully.

    Physical abuse in childhood can play a role. There is an association between a child being exposed to domestic violence at home and then bullying their peers.

    Parenting can also be a factor. For example, being overvalued but not well disciplined by parents can lead to higher traits of narcissism and a greater likelihood a child will bully.

    What can we do?

    Children who persistently bully may require targeted and nuanced approaches. Current approaches emphasise restoring positive relationships, rather than punishments or sanctions.

    One approach is individual motivational interviewing. Here a school counsellor shows young people they can achieve their goals by other means. This encourages perpetrators to see there are more benefits in not bullying than in bullying. For example, “I want to be popular. But if I bully, I also make other kids scared of me and not want to hang around me.”

    More broadly, schools can also teach explicit programs on social and emotional learning.



    Read more:
    Schools today also teach social and emotional skills. Why is this important? And what’s involved?

    These programs focus on emotional intelligence and emotional literacy, enabling students to recognise and manage their emotions, understand the perspectives of others and have positive relationships with peers.

    Schools which respect the diversity of students, are also better placed to address bullying. If all students have opportunities to participate in learning, it will develop their sense of belonging to their school community. This not only decreases rates of bullying but supports students who have been victimised.

    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14 or Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800.

    Marilyn Campbell receives funding from the Australian Research Council and other government grants. .

    Shannon O’Brien does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. With a government review underway, we have to ask why children bully other kids – https://theconversation.com/with-a-government-review-underway-we-have-to-ask-why-children-bully-other-kids-257643

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: People with severe mental illness are waiting for days in hospital EDs. Here’s how we can do better

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sebastian Rosenberg, Associate Professor, Health Research Institute, University of Canberra, and Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney

    Matthew Ashmore/Shutterstock

    On ABC’s 4 Corners this week, psychiatrists and nurses have warned New South Wales’ mental health system is in crisis. They report some patients with severe mental distress are waiting two to three days in emergency departments for care.

    The program highlighted chronic failures in NSW’s mental health system, but the shortfalls are being felt across the nation.

    Just over 7% of the nation’s health budget is spent on mental health. But together with alcohol and drug issues, mental health accounts for around 15% of the nation’s burden of disease.

    Problems in mental health go beyond under-funding: it’s also about how the resources we do have are spent.

    So how did we get here? And what can we do to fix it?

    It wasn’t supposed to be like this

    Back in the 1980s, psychiatric deinstitutionalisation promised to replace treatment provided in the old psychiatric institutions with mental health services and care in the community. Too often, these institutions failed to promote recovery, and delivered improper care and even abuse.

    Many of these institutions were indeed closed. But the shift in mental health care over the past 40 years has not been from asylums to the community, but rather to the mental health wards of Australia’s general public hospitals and the emergency departments (EDs) which operate in them.

    Hospitals are expensive and often traumatic places to provide mental health care. We know this from frequent statutory inquiries and reports.

    Deinstitutionalisation aimed to treat patients in the community rather than hospital.
    Shutterstock

    For presentations to EDs, all the indicators are heading in the wrong direction. More people are seeking care for their mental health in EDs, they are arriving sicker (according to their triage category) and they wait longer for care.

    Hospitals account for more than 80% of total state and territory spending on mental health. In 2022–23, A$6.5 billion of the states and territories’ total spend of $8bn on mental health was directed towards hospital-based care. Just $1bn was provided outside hospitals.

    Evidence indicates community-based care can reduce reliance on EDs for mental health care.

    Yet community mental health services now often comprise little more than a phone call to check if a client is taking their medication. Of the 9.4 million community mental health service contacts in 2022–3, 4 million lasted less than 15 minutes.

    Mental health clinical staff spend just 20% of their time with consumers.

    What are the solutions?

    The solutions are already at hand, but haven’t been pursued or scaled up. These include:

    • multidisciplinary models such as assertive community treatments, which provide mixed specialist clinical and psychosocial support in the community, in people’s homes

    • service models the Australian College of Emergency Medicine have proposed as alternatives to hospital ED care. These include safe havens, mental health nurse liaison services and dedicated homelessness teams. These services can provide the care required to divert patients away from hectic emergency departments, in calmer, more therapeutic spaces

    • NSW programs such as the Housing and Accommodation Support Initiative provide community based, clinical and psychosocial support to people with severe mental health needs. This program reduced admissions due to mental health by 74% over two years

    • Adelaide’s Urgent Mental Health Care Centre, which operates as an alternative to EDs and is open 24 hours a day, seven days a week. This clinic was designed in collaboration with the community, including people with a lived experience of a mental health crisis, and offers a welcoming, safe environment

    • Step-Up Step-Down services, which can effectively meet the needs of some of “the missing middle”. These are people whose mental health needs are too complex for primary care but not assessed as a big enough risk to themselves or others to “qualify” for hospital admission.

    Community-based care for mental illness and social support can reduce reliance on EDs.
    Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock

    Funding support for psychosocial services remains tiny. It accounts for about 6% of total spending on mental health care by states and territories.

    As a result, almost half a million Australians with either severe or moderate mental health needs are currently unable to access necessary psychosocial care. This impacts their recovery.

    It also leaves clinical services without a viable “psychosocial partner”. So people needing mental health care might be able to get a prescription, but are much less likely to receive assistance with unstable housing, employment support or help getting back to school.

    Working together

    There is already concern to address identified workforce shortages and psychiatrists’ pay disputes.

    The next round of mental health planning must also discuss and clarify the complementary roles in mental health care, as people with more complex mental health needs typically benefit from multidisciplinary, team-based care. This includes psychiatrists, psychologists, allied health professionals, nurses, peer workers, social service providers, GPs, justice, school and housing services and others such as drug and alcohol services. Who is best placed to plan and coordinate this care?

    Reducing our over-reliance on hospital-based mental health care and EDs needs agreement by all Australian governments to explicitly prioritise the principles of early intervention, community-based mental health care and hospital avoidance in mental health.

    These steps, together with more personalised approaches to treatment and better accountability, will help us achieve systemic quality improvement in mental health care.



    Read more:
    Police aren’t properly trained for mental health crises – but they’re often the first responders. Here’s what works better

    Sebastian Rosenberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. People with severe mental illness are waiting for days in hospital EDs. Here’s how we can do better – https://theconversation.com/people-with-severe-mental-illness-are-waiting-for-days-in-hospital-eds-heres-how-we-can-do-better-257971

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Senior public servants think GenAI will boost productivity – but are worried about the risks

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Helen Dickinson, Professor, Public Service Research, UNSW Sydney

    Many bold claims have been made about Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) and its capacity to improve productivity and generate workplace efficiencies.

    A recent Microsoft survey found 24% of private sector leaders have already deployed GenAI across their organisations. Many are considering laying off staff and replacing them with GenAI systems.

    But how much appetite does the public sector have for using artificial intelligence, which doesn’t come without risks?

    Our new research explores attitudes in Australian bureaucracy to using GenAI in policy work. Given governments are expected to work in ethical, transparent and responsible ways, we wondered if public servants are more wary of adopting this technology.

    No single view

    We asked senior bureaucrats from 22 state, territory and federal government agencies about their views on GenAI. We focused on what this might mean for the future of decision-making, policy development and public services.

    They expressed a range of views on the transformative potential of GenAI. Some were enthusiasts who saw the potential to conduct government work faster and more reliably.

    One interviewee remarked:

    Why improve the candle when you could use a light bulb?

    Others were less enthusiastic, arguing the technology is overhyped. Critically, they see GenAI as fundamentally inappropriate for use in public policy work and inherently risky on several fronts. These include:

    • the tendency for AI to hallucinate, where tools see patterns in data that do not exist in reality, making outputs inaccurate or wrong

    • the risk of biases in existing datasets, such as the underrepresentation of some groups or people

    • the sensitive nature of government data that might be compromised by AI programs.

    Regardless of their specific views on GenAI, public servants consistently told us two things.

    First, they do not believe artificial intelligence will replace workers. Instead, they are confident these tools will augment their work by freeing them from routine and repetitive tasks. This would allow them to focus on high-value tasks, such as engaging with the public.

    Second, the current use of GenAI is largely focused on administration tasks that do not draw on sensitive client data or interact directly with the public.

    Robodebt hangover

    One of the consequences of the Robodebt scheme is the pace and scale of the adoption of automated tools.

    Many interviewees explained public sector organisations are still very cautious about using GenAI technology as a result of the scandal.

    One interviewee told us the majority of the problems with Robodebt were at a human level, which highlights the importance of individuals

    taking their duties, both professionally and ethically, seriously, and interrogating what they get out of AI systems.

    Close attention is also being given to the influence of human decision-making in the development of machines that use GenAI.

    Incremental change

    Our research suggests public service agencies are largely taking a careful and measured approach to applying GenAI in policy work. Senior public servants perceive the public is wary of how governments use these tools. Rebuilding credibility in relation to technology oversight and implementation is imperative.

    Public servants described most of their use of GenAI as purposeful experiments. Clear outcomes are set for the use of these tools and evaluation processes are in place to monitor whether they achieve them.

    This is seen as important because public sector organisations need to know whether these tools do what they promise – deliver value for money and help guard against any unforeseen risks.

    Unauthorised use

    Some recent scandals show how GenAI tools can be risky when misused. In response, some public service agencies have banned freely available GenAI models such as ChatGPT and only allow access to officially authorised programs such as Copilot.

    But this does not mean public servants are not using the technology.

    Several interviewees told us they were aware of colleagues using unauthorised programs to enhance their productivity. Personal devices are often engaged to bypass system restrictions. Concerns were expressed public servants might not be receiving guidance on how to use these tools carefully and safely.

    New reality

    GenAI technology is being asked to perform tasks that require human intelligence and to do these tasks more quickly. However, our findings point to a strong need to align these tools with Australian government values that frame expectations for responsible use of GenAI.

    The public service faces a dilemma. Is this an opportunity for innovation in government policy work by tapping into the potential transformative impact of GenAI programs, as promised in other sectors? Or, is a more cautious approach needed to generate trust, both in the technology, and in public sector organisations to use them appropriately?

    Elon Musk’s recent work in the Trump administration may suggest the latter. The experience highlighted the significant consequences of tech industry influence and the use of AI tools under the remit of maximising government efficiency.

    The Australian public has high expectations of government to solve problems such as the housing crisis and cost-of-living pressures. A combination of machine and human intelligence may offer the power needed to tackle these complex economic and social issues. However, not all agencies have yet decided to flip the switch.

    Our research highlights the mix of views among senior public servants towards GenAI. Whether it transforms the public service or simply speeds up business as usual will depend not on the technology itself but on how boldly, carefully, and transparently governments choose to use it.

    Helen Dickinson receives funding from Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, Medical Research Future Fund and Australian Government.

    Dr Jade Hart receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

    Kathryn Henne receives funding from the Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council and Google Academic Research Awards program.

    Vanessa McDermott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Senior public servants think GenAI will boost productivity – but are worried about the risks – https://theconversation.com/senior-public-servants-think-genai-will-boost-productivity-but-are-worried-about-the-risks-256566

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –