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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Terminations at U.S. government agencies that monitor extreme weather events will have negative effects

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Gordon McBean, Professor Emeritus, Department of Geography and Environment, Western University

    A weather station in Santa Cruz, Calif. Cuts to government agencies monitoring the weather will increase the impacts of extreme weather events. (Shutterstock)

    In August 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report confirmed that the climate is warming and the impacts will be widespread and more intense than anticipated.

    In 2023, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released the Weather, Water, and Climate Strategy (2023-27) for the United States and around the world.

    The strategy addresses the risks to lives, property, economies and ecosystems that are increasing at an alarming rate due to the warming planet. It highlights that U.S. citizens are in harm’s way, infrastructure is increasingly outdated and at risk and, in many places, not designed for new environmental realities and extreme weather events.

    In February 2025, Donald Trump’s administration reduced the government’s size. The NOAA was severely affected, experiencing budget cuts and the termination of about 800 employees’ positions. NOAA is a critically important government organization, and includes the National Weather Service (NWS).

    Recent developments regarding science and scholarship in the U.S., including major reductions in federal research funding and censorship around topics such as climate change and gender, are forcing many U.S. science agencies and research organizations to abruptly suspend normal operations.

    As former assistant deputy minister of the Meteorological Service of Environment Canada between 1994 and 2000, I regularly met with my colleagues at the NWS and other weather agencies. We worked together to share information to provide the best weather services possible in our countries.

    Climate and misinformation

    In January of this year, the World Economic Forum released its Global Risks Report. This ranked the global risks that could have major impacts on the global population, GDP or natural resources in the short term (two years) and long term (10 years).

    For the short term, the top risk identified is “misinformation and disinformation,” with “extreme weather events” being the second-highest risk. Extreme weather events include storms, floods, wildfires, heat and others, with a warming climate leading to more severity and impacts. By geography, extreme weather events is ranked as the highest risk for Northern America and most other regions.

    The risks due to misinformation and extreme weather events are interconnected. If an extreme weather event is about to occur and people are not informed, or are misinformed, about the occurrence and risks, they do not take actions to reduce exposure and vulnerability, resulting in higher impacts.

    Impacts of layoffs

    Because of the importance of the NOAA, NWS and other climate research bodies, many have spoken out about the negative impacts of these job terminations and budget reductions.

    The NWS has developed leading weather forecast models by working with the academic and global science communities, and partners with others beyond national borders to share their data. The multi-year development and implementation of these weather systems has led to high quality and reliable information for weather, climate and ocean situations.

    One example is science journalist Andy Revkin, who referred to Trump’s actions as “The Dangerous Trump Purge of Weather and Climate Expertise.” In his Substack, Revkin writes:

    “There’s an enormous, and justified surge of criticism from private-sector and academic meteorologists from across the political spectrum over the purge of expertise and supporting staff under way at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and National Weather Service.”

    Meteorologists Jeff Masters and Bob Henson wrote that “cuts to U.S. weather and climate research could put public safety at risk… and slow emergency disaster response and weaken resilience efforts.”

    Ilan Kelman, professor of disasters and health at University College London, stated that the “mass job termination” will have major negative impacts across the U.S. and nearby countries, such as Canada. This will be due to reduced aviation and shipping safety; lack of information for communities to respond to severe weather; safety assessments for search-and-rescue; and other concerns.

    Alarming increases

    With a warming climate, the impacts of extreme weather events are rising around most of the world. The year 2024, the warmest on record, was also the single-most expensive year on record in terms of Canadian insurance payouts of C$8.5 billion, with the number of catastrophe claims exceeding 273,000. Disaster costs in the U.S. also increased with many billion-dollar events.

    On Oct. 17, 2024, NOAA shared initial imagery from the GOES-19 lightning mapper showing lightning activity in two extremely hazardous hurricanes – Helene and Milton — on Sept. 24.
    (GOES-19/NOAA)

    In September 2024, Hurricane Helene caused 228 deaths and economic losses assessed at US$78.7 billion. In advance of Helene’s landfall, states of emergency in Florida and Georgia were declared by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

    The U.S. Air Force Weather Reconnaissance Squadron provided information for the NHC to upgrade the storm to Tropical Storm Helene. Follow-up research by the World Weather Attribution concluded with “high confidence” that Helene was made worse by climate change.

    Reliance on observation and collaboration

    Forecasting extreme weather events relies on observational systems that provide weather information over a significant area which extends beyond a country. In North America, the U.S. weather forecasts rely on information from Canada, Mexico and countries across the Gulf of Mexico, and vice versa.

    The World Meteorological Organization, the UN’s lead agency on weather and climate, co-ordinates international co-operation for the free and unrestricted exchange of data and information, products and services in real time. This is critical for the safety and security of society, economic welfare and protection of the environment.

    With the NOAA’s reductions in resources, there will be negative impacts across all services in the U.S. and on the effective sharing of data between internationally collaborating weather services.

    These cuts to NOAA also relate to broad concern about impacts on science. The European Federation of Academies of Sciences and Humanities has expressed grave concern over the escalating threats to academic freedom, both in the U.S. and beyond.

    Gordon McBean receives funding from Western University and the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction to undertake research on building climate resilient communities. None of my affliations are relevant to this paper.

    – ref. Terminations at U.S. government agencies that monitor extreme weather events will have negative effects – https://theconversation.com/terminations-at-u-s-government-agencies-that-monitor-extreme-weather-events-will-have-negative-effects-251314

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: U.S. tariffs are about to trigger the greatest trade diversion the world has ever seen

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Wolfgang Alschner, Hyman Soloway Chair in Business and Trade Law, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

    United States President Donald Trump’s tariffs have shaken the global trading system. Canadians have rightly been preoccupied by the tariff’s devastating impact on U.S.-Canada relations, but the wider ripple effects could prove just as damaging.

    The tariffs have redirected billions of dollars in exports originally bound for the U.S., which are now poised to flood global markets — including Canada’s. This will trigger a historic trade diversion that will put even the most free trade-minded nations to the test.

    Around 15 per cent of global imports went to the U.S. in 2024. The country has long been the world’s biggest consumer market, in part, due to its low average tariffs of just 3.3 per cent.

    These days are now over. On April 2, the U.S. increased its average tariff rate seven-fold to a staggering 22 per cent — by far the highest among countries with a major economy.



    Read more:
    Canada was mostly spared from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, but it must not grow complacent

    Even though the U.S.’s “reciprocal” tariffs have since been suspended for all countries except China and Trump has now exempted smartphones, computers and microchips, a 10 per cent baseline rate and several sectoral duties remain in place.

    Together, they form a tariff wall around the U.S. unlike anything seen in generations.

    The Great Trade Diversion

    Much of the trade disruption stems from China. In 2024, China exported US$438.9 billion worth of goods to the U.S. Millions of parcels, sent via e-commerce platforms like Shein, entered the U.S. duty-free because they fell below the US$800 “de minimis” threshold.

    On April 2, Trump eliminated this exemption for low-value Chinese exports and imposed a reciprocal tariff on all Chinese imports of 34 per cent.

    This rate was increased further after China vowed to retaliate on April 4, and is now stacked on top of a 20 per cent fentanyl-related tariff. The result is an effective tariff rate exceeding 100 per cent, making it prohibitively costly for China to export to the U.S.

    Last time U.S.-China trade tensions escalated, China rerouted many of its exports through Southeast Asia. This time, however, Southeast Asian countries were hit hard, too.

    Vietnam, a major destination of Chinese export-oriented foreign investment, exported US$137 billion in goods to the U.S. in 2024. While the 46 per cent reciprocal tariff against Vietnam has since been suspended, the U.S. is unlikely to tolerate such circumvention this time around.

    The U.S. has also imposed a 25 per cent tariff on all imported automobiles. South Korea, Japan and Germany all export cars to the U.S. market. While some of these exports may continue as tariff costs are absorbed or passed on to customers, others will divert their vehicles to alternative markets.

    All told, billions of dollars in trade are being rerouted, with a tidal wave of diverted goods now headed for markets around the world.

    A repeat of the Great Depression

    The world has been here before. In the 1930s, the U.S. enacted the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which raised tariffs on thousands of imported goods in an effort to shield American industries during the Great Depression. The result was a rapid contraction of global trade.

    What ultimately tipped the world over the edge wasn’t direct retaliation against the U.S. Instead, global trade collapsed as U.S. trading partners turned on each other. Faced with a flood of diverted goods, they rushed to protect their own manufacturing by enacting trade restrictions of their own.

    Similarly, today, we face a similar risk. The greater concern is not Trump’s tariffs themselves or even the retaliation they provoke, but rather the resulting trade diversion and wave of protectionism it can trigger.

    Old fears, new pressures

    In some respects, the world may be in a more precarious position today than it was in the early 1930s.

    For close to a decade, western policymakers, including G7 members, have sounded alarm bells over “Chinese overcapacity.” China consumes too little at home and exports too much abroad, often using unfair non-market practices such as covert subsidization to undercut local prices.

    Fears of deindustrialization have already led some governments to put new trade barriers in place. Canada, for example, placed a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles to protect its own nascent industry in 2024. A flood of diverted Chinese imports will only heighten these pre-existing concerns.

    At the same time, global trade rules meant to safeguard against protectionism have become brittle. The U.S. has blocked the appointment of judges to the World Trade Organization’s highest court, which is tasked with enforcing trade rules.

    The resulting impunity has emboldened countries beyond the U.S. to openly flout WTO rules. Indonesia, for example, continues to maintain a WTO-inconsistent export ban on nickel. Canada’s electric vehicle tariff will likely be judged illegal under trade rules as well.

    Global trade system at a crossroads

    The Great Trade Diversion is set to put an already strained system to the test. There is still time for countries to reaffirm their commitment to international trade rules. Those same rules also allow countries to temporarily restrict trade when faced with a flood of imports.

    The Canadian government can proactively identify sectors at risk of disruption and call on the Canada Border Services Agency to self-initiate investigations into vulnerable sectors to swiftly clear the procedural hurdles for imposing temporary import restrictions.

    If countries stick to these rules, the global trading system can weather the storm. Just as possible, though, is a slide toward protectionism. Faced with a deluge of goods coming from China, the temptation to erect illegal trade barriers like the U.S. already has will be high.

    The global economy stands at a crossroads: one path leads to a reassertion of international co-operation and global rules; the other to a cascade of protectionist measures and a weakening of the very system that has enabled decades of economic growth and stability.

    Wolfgang Alschner receives funding from the SSHRC.

    – ref. U.S. tariffs are about to trigger the greatest trade diversion the world has ever seen – https://theconversation.com/u-s-tariffs-are-about-to-trigger-the-greatest-trade-diversion-the-world-has-ever-seen-254049

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s record-breaking contract with the Toronto Blue Jays is a win-win deal for both sides

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ryan Clutterbuck, Assistant Professor in Sport Management, Brock University

    After missing out on the Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto sweepstakes in 2023 and 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have reportedly agreed to a record-breaking 14-year US$500 million extension to his contract with the team.

    The deal will likely prove to be a win-win for both sides.

    For the Blue Jays, the win, as articulated by current Blue Jays pitcher Max Scherzer, means “you just solidified your organization, and you know who’s playing first for the next 14 years.”

    One of Guerrero Jr.’s wins (that doesn’t include a dollar sign), according to teammate Bo Bichette, is that he gets to remain at a team he wants to keep playing for.

    In terms of lessons learned, this contract offers future sport managers and negotiators from across disciplines several reminders to reflect on and incorporate into future deals.

    Dealing with time pressures

    Time pressure arises in auctions or negotiations when people feel like they are running out of time.

    It can lead to people making unwise decisions, such as the winner’s curse, where someone ends up overpaying for something because they overestimated its value. However, in negotiations, there are real time pressures and imagined time pressures, and recognizing each is important.

    For example, we can imagine an alternate universe in which the Blue Jays accepted and then acted upon Guerrero Jr.’s Feb. 18 deadline to negotiate a contract extension.

    In that universe, there’s no win-win potential. Instead, negotiations between the Blue Jays and Guerrero Jr. end and the conversation turns to possible trading partners and timelines to secure the greatest possible return.

    The Blue Jays recognized Guerrero Jr.’s Feb. 18 deadline represented an imagined rather than a real time pressure. Faced with an imagined time pressure, the Blue Jays executed a clever act of negotiation jiu-jitsu.

    Over a month after Guerrero Jr.’s Feb. 18 deadline had passed, Blue Jays President Mark Shapiro said: “I think we’re going to sign him. I think we’re going to extend him. The reason I feel that way is because we have such a clear alignment on the desired outcome.”

    Whereas other, perhaps less experienced negotiators may have been tempted to meet Guerrero Jr.’s demands with reciprocal force, for example, by issuing their own counter-ultimatum (as in: take it or leave it!), Shapiro simply ignored the demand and reinforced the team’s desire to make Guerrero Jr. a Blue Jay for life.

    Even experienced negotiators can fall into repetitive action-reaction cycles in which every demand, ask and ultimatum is met with equal or increased resistance from the other side. Of course, in every negotiation, either side will have to stand up for their interests and push back at times. But sometimes it can be more useful to simply step aside than it is to push back.

    Time value of money

    There were also financial issues that had to be resolved via negotiation. Notable, as well, is the time-value-of-money concept that entered into the sport lexicon with hitter Shohei Ohtani’s uniquely structured contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers (US$700 million over 10 years with US$680 million deferred until 2034). This may have been a major factor for Guerrero Jr. too.

    To understand how the time-value-of-money concept can impact negotiations, it may be helpful to reflect on how far $50 used to go 10 years ago and far it does today. Just as $50 in 2015 was more valuable then than it is today, the same will be true for hundreds of millions of dollars.

    Much has been made of Guerrero Jr.’s reported contact and its compensation structure that, similar to outfielder Juan Soto’s deal with the New York Mets, does not include such team/ownership-friendly deferrals.

    Ohtani may be more comfortable and uniquely positioned, by virtue of his lucrative off-the-field endorsements in North America and Japan, to defer a large chunk of his US$700 million deal with the LA Dodgers. However, the message from Soto and Guerrero Jr.’s camps seems to have been: show me the present value.

    What is interesting from a negotiation standpoint and worth reflecting on here and for the future is how showing Guerrero Jr. the present-value-of-money facilitated the deal.

    Despite challenges to securing a long-term win-win, that included an arbitration hearing in February 2024, the application of time pressure by Guerrero Jr. a year later and a reported deadlock over $50 million in the late stages of the negotiation, the Blue Jays and Guerrero Jr. can now each claim victory. It’s a classic win-win.

    Ryan Clutterbuck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s record-breaking contract with the Toronto Blue Jays is a win-win deal for both sides – https://theconversation.com/vladimir-guerrero-jr-s-record-breaking-contract-with-the-toronto-blue-jays-is-a-win-win-deal-for-both-sides-254055

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How I’m teaching Holocaust literature in light of Canadian recommendations around combatting antisemitism

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Regan Lipes, Extended Sessional Instructor, English and Comparative Literature, MacEwan University

    As university students encounter hate speech, like statements perpetrated by music industry personalities they may have once enjoyed, they have questions about antisemitism — and what it really is.

    I research and teach Jewish literature with a focus on Holocaust narratives. With rising tensions on both sides of the Israel-Hamas War, and 24 hostages still in captivity, Canadian communities feel the continued conflict domestically.

    In December 2024, the House of Commons’s Standing Committee on Justice and Human Rights released a comprehensive document: Heightened Anisemitism in Canada and How to Combat It.

    Since Oct. 7, 2023, societal tolerance for blatant acts of antisemitism has risen. This makes this document all the more timely, especially as it reports: “Many witnesses noted that the rise in antisemitism has been particularly acute on university campuses.”

    Among the document’s 19 recommendations is guidance around Holocaust education and remembrance. While there is longstanding scholarly discussion around best practices and ethics pertaining to teaching the Holocaust and remembrance, educators must also be responsive to our current — and evolving — contexts.

    Here, I share ways I have sought to adapt my own approach to teaching Holocaust literature. For educators wondering how to begin approaching the integration of Holocaust topics, a 2020 collection of articles on the subject, Understanding and Teaching the Holocaust, edited by Laura Hilton (professor of history) and Avinoam Patt (professor of Holocaust studies), could be a launching point.

    Modern-day antisemitism, trajectories

    The committee’s sixth recommendation is that the government of Canada work with provinces and territories to “ensure that Holocaust education in public schools and other institutions includes explanations of modern-day antisemitism and integrates a Jewish community-centered lens.”

    For a course teaching film adaptations of the Holocaust, I solicited the assistance of a colleague, historian Carson Phillips, at the Azrieli Foundation, a charity whose eight funding areas include Holocaust education and legacy, to tackle this recommendation.

    Working with Phillips brought an additional voice to the discussion of how Holocaust denial and Holocaust distortion are connected to antisemitism. Holocaust denial is a form of antisemitism with all its malignant intentions.



    Read more:
    How Hitler conspiracies and other Holocaust disinformation undermine democratic institutions

    Phillips suggested I try to additionally focus on survivor memoirs that explore life prior to the Holocaust to illustrate the trajectory of antisemitic agendas. He noted I should concentrate on memoirs with a connection to Canada so this message would be more relevant for my students.

    He provided me with A Cry in Unison by Judy Cohen,
    Flights of Spirit by Elly Gotz and Memories in Focus by Pinchas Gutter. I also applied his advice in the fiction I taught and incorporated the 1970 novel, Crackpot, by Adele Wiseman, to show that between the First and Second World Wars in Canada, there was societal antisemitism and social isolation of Jews.

    To further connect this to a Canadian context, and to consider trajectories of hate, in the future I may include content around how there were plans to export the “final solution” from Europe to North America. This illustrates that tolerance of antisemitism can quickly threaten societal stability.

    Antisemitism far predates Nazism

    I wanted my students to see that although the Holocaust was caused by antisemitism, antisemitism long predated the rise of Nazism and survives today because of a lack of shared awareness.

    The Art Gallery of Alberta recently hosted an exhibit Here to Tell of photograph portraits of Holocaust survivors and their recorded testimonies.



    Read more:
    Holocaust survivor stories are reminders of why we need to educate against antisemitism

    In three of my courses, I gave the extra credit option to visit the exhibition and reflect on ideas, themes and concepts that resonated. Similar engagement is being implemented in high school classes to address Alberta’s curricular requirements.

    This has the aim of better informing learners about what can occur when xenophobia and hate are allowed to proliferate.

    The documentary connected to the exhibit vividly illustrates why antisemitism is dangerous when left to fester and breed, or if misinformation masquerades as fact.

    ‘Here to Tell: Faces of Holocaust Survivors’ project.

    As recent events in a suburb of Edmonton suggest, not combating antisemitism allows the tentacles of white supremacy and xenophobia to affect other communities too. There, masked demonstrators stood with an apparent anti-immigration sign while one gave a Nazi salute.

    Addressing Holocaust remembrance

    The eighth recommendation of Heightened Antisemitism calls for the government of Canada, “in line with its commitment to build strong communities and celebrate multiculturalism,” to “provide funding to develop a five-year program to enhance the literacy of post-secondary students regarding the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA) definition of antisemitism.”

    For me as an educator, this made the marking of International Holocaust Remembrance Day (IHRD) especially meaningful in the context of classroom learning in Alberta.

    After all, Alberta was the province where James Keegstra first began teaching Holocaust denial to high school students in the 1980s. After Prof. Anthony Hall of the University of Lethbridge finally retired in 2018, it seemed like Holocaust denial and baseless vilification of Zionism was on the decline in Alberta. As reported by CBC, in 2016 Hall was suspended without pay for “allegedly promoting conspiracy theories and denying the Holocaust in online articles and videos.”

    This year was the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz-Birkenau, and to to mark IHRD, I organized two guest speakers to present their research to students. Speakers helped contextualize the immediate legacy of the Holocaust and how this contributes to contemporary antisemitism.

    With Yom HaShoah (Jewish Holocaust Remembrance Day) soon approaching, these discussions should be at the forefront of Canadian human rights awareness.



    Read more:
    How Jan. 27 came to be International Day of Commemoration in Memory of the Victims of the Holocaust

    Wider implications

    Although my students are likely not familiar with the report’s broader recommendations for how to combat antisemitism, a sizeable portion of the report’s advice does focus on university campuses. There are implications far beyond teaching the Holocaust or Jewish subject matters which may potentially impact students.

    Recommendations include:

    • Calls for more robust and effective strategies to combat antisemitism and safeguard Jewish communities across Canada;

    • For action to address antisemitic incidents;

    • That the “full diversity of the Jewish identity be acknowledged within Equity, Diversity and Inclusion (EDI) frameworks, including Jewish peoplehood, ethnicity, nationality, multi-denominational religion, cultural diversity, and language, as well as Zionist and Indigenous aspects of Jewish identity.” This point notes that “this includes the recognition of Zionism as the self-determination of Jewish people in their ancestral homeland of Israel.”

    It has yet to be seen how a change in federal Canadian leadership will uphold the values articulated in this important committee report, but the document does provide hope for Holocaust educators and broader Canadian communities isolated by a rise in hate.

    Regan Lipes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How I’m teaching Holocaust literature in light of Canadian recommendations around combatting antisemitism – https://theconversation.com/how-im-teaching-holocaust-literature-in-light-of-canadian-recommendations-around-combatting-antisemitism-247747

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Humanity depends on the ocean — Here is what we need to prioritize for immediate ocean science research

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Brad deYoung, Robert Bartlett Professor of Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland

    Humankind is inextricably dependent on the ocean. Many of our greatest civilizations have thrived on the rim of the ocean. Today, we are more reliant than ever on the ocean for our economic, social and physical well-being.

    Maritime activities, from global trade to tourism, exceed US$3 trillion annually. The “ocean economy” is the fourth largest in the world. Furthermore, our global economic vitality is largely due to the cost-effective nature of ocean transportation, which contributes to the reduced price per ton of shipped goods.

    From submarine cables to shipping, fisheries and aquaculture, we are increasingly reliant on the blue economy. Roughly 20 per cent of the animal protein that we eat comes from marine fish.

    The ocean has changed dramatically in the past century, and we expect more change to come. Collapses of fisheries, coral reefs, shark populations and other species — along with increased dead zones, red tide blooms and invasive species — have followed increased human development, industrial use of the sea, climate change and pollution.

    Humanity is at a social, political, environmental and scientific nexus point.

    We are a group of researchers and experts who served on a committee of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to advise the National Science Foundation on forward-looking approaches to investing in ocean science research, infrastructure and workforce development.

    We considered the question: What vital research must we pursue now, and what investments must we make to achieve ambitious research goals?

    Our scientific efforts must focus on the key gaps in our predictive knowledge, and on the critical pathways and thresholds for ocean change. We should support ocean science to prepare for the future.

    Readying ocean science

    Given limited resources and rapid changes, we need to consider how to set priorities. Our committee offered a distinction between urgent and vital research: urgent research is time-sensitive, with immediate relevance to emerging regional and global issues, while vital research transforms our ability to grapple with rapid changes in the ocean and the Earth system.

    Our ability to observe, model and understand the ocean has greatly increased in recent years.

    For example, Argo — an ocean weather observing system — provides a global view of water properties around the planet. Argo has expanded our understanding of the global ocean and has significantly improved weather forecasts.

    In addition, research on the impact of climate shifts on ocean species is more accurate, helping us to understand the impact of these shifts on carbon sequestration, shoreline protection from storms and tipping points in interconnected ocean systems.

    The growing focus on links between the chemical, physical, geological and biological states of the ocean, and planetary climate states, provides a much-improved structure for forecasting the state of the ocean.

    Healthy oceans, healthy people

    A focus on human well-being and its dependence on ocean processes can provide an important connection that places ocean sciences in key conversations related to human health.

    When it comes to understanding the importance of ocean and climate, we need to determine how the ocean’s ability to absorb heat and carbon dioxide will change. While the ocean presently absorbs 90 per cent of global heat and roughly 30 per cent of carbon dioxide, changes in the physical and biological ocean will likely slow these rates, leading to accelerated atmospheric warming.

    Related to this climate question, how will marine ecosystems respond to changes in the Earth system? Declining ecosystem resilience will likely have strong negative impacts on food supplies and livelihoods.

    Can we develop new understanding that will support model forecasts to determine the effects of warming, acidification and de-oxygenation on marine life?

    Another challenge is to improve our ability to forecast extreme events driven by ocean and seafloor processes. Marine earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes and storm surges are natural processes that pose serious risks to human well-being. Societal vulnerability to these extreme events can be profound.

    As our built coastal infrastructure expands, and climate change shifts patterns of such extreme events, it is critical to improve our ability to observe, understand and forecast extreme events.

    Investing in ocean futures

    Ocean research depends on continued funding of basic studies and investment in key ocean science infrastructure. We must integrate emerging technologies, artificial intelligence and expanded use of existing ocean infrastructure such as globally ranging research vessels, global drifters that float on the ocean surface and gather information, underwater communication cables and coastal marine laboratories.

    International co-operation is needed since few of these challenges are truly local. A move towards more collaborative, transdisciplinary research is necessary, alongside an expanded ocean science workforce with training and knowledge well beyond those of traditional disciplines.

    Our assessment of the state of ocean science in the United States identified key infrastructure required to address these challenges.

    For example, while advances in autonomous vehicle technology offer many opportunities, there will remain a need for specialized research ships that can operate in coastal and deep-sea waters and ice-covered regions to drill for** seafloor samples. Globally, there has been a decline in available ships to support ocean research.

    Likewise, nearly 100 marine laboratories dot U.S. coastlines, providing training, access and research for thousands of students each year. The development of this infrastructure offers opportunities for international collaboration and cooperation with private sector partners. It may also be that some of the existing infrastructure, such as the Ocean Observatories Initiative, needs to be reconsidered in light of shifting priorities and developing technologies.

    An ocean glider deployed at sea.
    (B. DeYoung), CC BY-ND

    Collective action

    We differentiate between urgent and vital ocean science research priorities.

    While the urgent will continue to demand our attention — the next coral bleaching event, the latest fisheries collapse — it is our commitment to the vital research priorities identified in the report that will ultimately determine our ability to steward rather than merely react to complex changes in the oceans.

    Our work offers a compass, but navigation requires collective action. Research institutions must transform their approach: restructuring tenure and promotion criteria to reward transdisciplinary investigations, supporting reskilling and upskilling of faculty, and preparing an innovative, adept workforce.

    Policymakers must create frameworks that value long-term investigation. And citizens must advocate for sustained investments in ocean science that transcend political cycles. The ocean’s future — and our own — depends on our willingness to pursue what is vital.

    Kristen St John receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation. She is the author of a lab book Reconstructing Earth’s Climate History: Inquiry-Based Exercises for the Lab and Class, and an in press textbook Earth’s Climate: A Geoscience Perspective.

    Mona Behl receives funding from U.S. National Science Foundation, the National Aeronautic and Space Agency, and the U.S. Department of Commerce. She is affiliated with the American Meteorological Society, and the Oceanography Society.

    Peter Girguis receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation, Schmidt Sciences, the National Aeronautic and Space Administration, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. He is affiliated with Harvard University, Schmidt Sciences, and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution .

    Richard W Murray has received funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation and other U.S. federal agencies.

    Stephen Palumbi receives funding from NSF, The Pew Charitable Trusts among other sources. He is affiliated with The Ocean Conservancy as a Board member, and is a member of the National Academies of Sciences. He has been vocal about the value and fun of bringing ocean science to the general public in book like The Extreme Life of the Sea and the upcoming book Born Predators.

    Brad deYoung does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Humanity depends on the ocean — Here is what we need to prioritize for immediate ocean science research – https://theconversation.com/humanity-depends-on-the-ocean-here-is-what-we-need-to-prioritize-for-immediate-ocean-science-research-252247

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Fresh details emerge on Australia’s new climate migration visa for Tuvalu residents

    ANALYSIS: By Jane McAdam, UNSW Sydney

    The details of a new visa enabling Tuvaluan citizens to permanently migrate to Australia were released this week.

    The visa was created as part of a bilateral treaty Australia and Tuvalu signed in late 2023, which aims to protect the two countries’ shared interests in security, prosperity and stability, especially given the “existential threat posed by climate change”.

    The Australia–Tuvalu Falepili Union, as it is known, is the world’s first bilateral agreement to create a special visa like this in the context of climate change.

    Here’s what we know so far about why this special visa exists and how it will work.

    Why is this migration avenue important?
     The impacts of climate change are already contributing to displacement and migration around the world.

    As a low-lying atoll nation, Tuvalu is particularly exposed to rising sea levels, storm surges and coastal erosion.

    As Pacific leaders declared in a world-first regional framework on climate mobility in 2023, rights-based migration can “help people to move safely and on their own terms in the context of climate change.”

    And enhanced migration opportunities have clearly made a huge difference to development challenges in the Pacific, allowing people to access education and work and send money back home.

    As international development expert Professor Stephen Howes put it,

    Countries with greater migration opportunities in the Pacific generally do better.

    While Australia has a history of labour mobility schemes for Pacific peoples, this will not provide opportunities for everyone.

    Despite perennial calls for migration or relocation opportunities in the face of climate change, this is the first Australian visa to respond.

    How does the new visa work?
     The visa will enable up to 280 people from Tuvalu to move to Australia each year.

    On arrival in Australia, visa holders will receive, among other things, immediate access to:

    • education (at the same subsidisation as Australian citizens)
    • Medicare
    • the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS)
    • family tax benefit
    • childcare subsidy
    • youth allowance.

    They will also have “freedom for unlimited travel” to and from Australia.

    This is rare. Normally, unlimited travel is capped at five years.

    According to some experts, these arrangements now mean Tuvalu has the “second closest migration relationship with Australia after New Zealand”.

    Reading the fine print
     The technical name of the visa is Subclass 192 (Pacific Engagement).

    The details of the visa, released this week, reveal some curiosities.

    First, it has been incorporated into the existing Pacific Engagement Visa category (subclass 192) rather than designed as a standalone visa.

    Presumably, this was a pragmatic decision to expedite its creation and overcome the significant costs of establishing a wholly new visa category.

    But unlike the Pacific Engagement Visa — a different, earlier visa, which is contingent on applicants having a job offer in Australia — this new visa is not employment-dependent.

    Secondly, the new visa does not specifically mention Tuvalu.

    This would make it simpler to extend it to other Pacific countries in the future.

    Who can apply, and how?

    To apply, eligible people must first register their interest for the visa online. Then, they must be selected through a random computer ballot to apply.

    The primary applicant must:

    • be at least 18 years of age
    • hold a Tuvaluan passport, and
    • have been born in Tuvalu — or had a parent or a grandparent born there.

    People with New Zealand citizenship cannot apply. Nor can anyone whose Tuvaluan citizenship was obtained through investment in the country.

    This indicates the underlying humanitarian nature of the visa; people with comparable opportunities in New Zealand or elsewhere are ineligible to apply for it.

    Applicants must also satisfy certain health and character requirements.

    Strikingly, the visa is open to those “with disabilities, special needs and chronic health conditions”. This is often a bar to acquiring an Australian visa.

    And the new visa isn’t contingent on people showing they face risks from the adverse impacts of climate change and disasters, even though climate change formed the backdrop to the scheme’s creation.

    Settlement support is crucial
     With the first visa holders expected to arrive later this year, questions remain about how well supported they will be.

    The Explanatory Memorandum to the treaty says:

    Australia would provide support for applicants to find work and to the growing Tuvaluan diaspora in Australia to maintain connection to culture and improve settlement outcomes.

    That’s promising, but it’s not yet clear how this will be done.

    A heavy burden often falls on diaspora communities to assist newcomers.

    For this scheme to work, there must be government investment over the immediate and longer-term to give people the best prospects of thriving.

    Drawing on experiences from refugee settlement, and from comparative experiences in New Zealand with respect to Pacific communities, will be instructive.

    Extensive and ongoing community consultation is also needed with Tuvalu and with the Tuvalu diaspora in Australia. This includes involving these communities in reviewing the scheme over time.

    Dr Jane McAdam is Scientia professor and ARC laureate fellow, Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW Sydney. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor and Coalition support for new home buyers welcome but other Australians also struggling with housing affordability

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Cull, Associate Professor, Western Sydney University

    doublelee/Shutterstock

    There is no denying housing reform is urgently needed in Australia to make housing more affordable and accessible to everyday Australians.

    Both major parties have now announced the incentives they are offering to help first-home buyers. While both Labor and the Coalition are hopeful their newly announced policies will win the most votes, how easy will it be to implement and how will it help first-home buyers?

    What new housing incentives are being offered?

    Refreshingly, both major parties are offering more novel policies than have previously been announced. In addition, both policies offer welcome relief to first-home buyers.

    As part of their $43 billion housing plan that already includes delivering 55,000 social and affordable homes, a Labor government will spend $10 billion to help more Australians purchase their first home.

    The first part of this plan includes increasing housing supply by building 100,000 new homes over eight years – just for first home buyers. The government would work with the states to identify where these homes will be built, beginning next financial year.

    The second part of Labor’s plan involves expanding the 5% deposit Home Guarantee Scheme to remove the annual cap of 50,000 places and removing income thresholds.

    It will also increase property price caps to better reflect local markets so that buyers can look to purchase a property where they currently work and/or live. For example, the current cap in Sydney will increase from $900,000 to $1.5 million.

    The Home Guarantee Scheme, which has already been used by more than 150,000 Australians, allows eligible first-home buyers to purchase a property with a 5% deposit and without paying Lenders Mortgage Insurance. The government guarantees part of the home loan. This will speed up the time that it will take for first-home buyers to save for a deposit, as they will be able to use a smaller deposit to secure a home.

    The 100,000 homes that would be built as part of Labor’s plans would only be available to first time home owners.
    Go My Media

    The Coalition have announced they will permit first-time buyers of newly built properties to deduct interest on up to $650,000 of their mortgage against their income for up to five years. The first home buyers, however, have to remain in their home for this time period.

    This will be available to singles on incomes up to $175,000 and couples with a combined income of up to $250,000. This is similar to the mortgage interest tax deduction currently permitted through negative gearing to property investors with rental properties.

    How easy are these housing policies to implement?

    While Labor’s Home Guarantee policy is already in operation, it should be relatively easy to expand this policy.

    However, in terms of building 100,000 homes, we know Labor is already well behind on its plan to build new housing stock, even though the number of dwellings increased by 53,200 to 11,294,300 for the quarter ended December 2024.

    This is where Labor’s policy of increasing subsidies to apprentices in the construction industry, as well plans to invest in prefabricated and modular homes and introduce a national certification system will help. While welcomed by housing advocates, the detail surrounding exactly where the houses will be built is an important part of this new housing policy.

    The Coalition’s proposal is more radical and will require changes to legislation before it can be implemented.

    It may also need to form part of more holistic taxation reform to have the intended effect. Details are still needed as to how this reform may affect the current capital gains tax exemption and other property tax concessions for one’s principal place of residence.

    Whether the Coalition have other taxation reforms planned is yet to be revealed.

    Could these policies work?

    The latest housing policies announced by both major parties are a step in the right direction.

    However, the details are missing and concerns remain around how these policies will interact with other policy proposals and whether there will be an unintended effect of pushing up housing prices.

    Peter Dutton says the deduction scheme would save the average family about $11,000 a year.
    Andrey Popov/Shutterstock

    While increasing the supply of housing is the answer to the housing crisis, whether these houses can be built quickly is still questionable. The 5% deposit for first home buyers will go a long way in enabling first home buyers to save a deposit. However, this means the remaining 95% still needs to be repaid and first home buyers will still need to prove they can service the loan. It will also increase pressure on first home buyers if interest rates increase early in their home ownership journey.

    First home owners who want to claim a tax deduction on their mortgage interest will still need to construct a new home, which will take some time to build.

    The tax deduction will help first-home buyers in the early years of their mortgage when mortgage interest is highest. However, it does tend to favour higher income earners who receive larger tax deductions due to their higher tax brackets.

    While it does little to put downward pressure on housing prices, the Coalition has combined this with an aggressive immigration policy aimed at increasing supply of established homes.

    Given the tight and expensive market in Australia, the latest housing incentives announced by the major parties may come as welcome news to first home buyers. But any new policy must be viewed as part of the larger package of policies being offered. First home buyers are not the only ones experiencing problems with housing affordability and accessibility.

    If anything, the contest for the federal election has forced both major parties to seriously consider their housing policies and share these with the public. However, the hardest part is yet to come: whether the incoming government’s housing policy is actually effective.

    Michelle Cull is a member of CPA Australia, the Financial Advice Association Australia and President Elect of the Academy of Financial Services in the United States. Michelle is an academic member of UniSuper’s Consultative Committee. Michelle co-founded the Western Sydney University Tax Clinic which has received funding from the Australian Taxation Office as part of the National Tax Clinic Program. Michelle has previously volunteered as Chair of the Macarthur Advisory Council for the Salvation Army Australia.

    – ref. Labor and Coalition support for new home buyers welcome but other Australians also struggling with housing affordability – https://theconversation.com/labor-and-coalition-support-for-new-home-buyers-welcome-but-other-australians-also-struggling-with-housing-affordability-254451

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Voters have a clear choice. Labor’s long term and equitable tax reform or the Coalition’s big but one-off tax cuts

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Isaac Gross, Lecturer in Economics, Monash University

    Tang Yan Song

    The election campaign has erupted into a economic battleground as Labor and the Coalition unveiled major new tax policies at their campaign launches.

    Each policy package is aimed at addressing the mounting cost-of-living pressures facing millions of Australians.

    Labor’s flagship announcement is a new standard tax deduction of $1000 per year for work-related expenses. It represents a permanent reform designed to simplify the tax system and provide consistent, predictable relief.

    Economically, it reduces compliance costs and inefficiencies by eliminating paperwork and receipt-keeping for millions of Australians.

    According to a Blueprint Institute report, simplifying tax deductions through a standard deduction can significantly reduce compliance costs and increase economic efficiency. It potentially saves taxpayers and the government millions annually by streamlining the tax filing process.

    This change reduces errors, improves efficiency and saves both individuals and the government significant time and resources.

    A standard deduction can lead to increased compliance and fewer disputes. The Australian Taxation Office will not need to audit taxpayers who take the standard deduction. This will lower administrative costs and reduce the need for costly tax advice from accountants.

    Additionally, a simpler tax system can enhance labour market participation. It does this by removing complexity that disproportionately affects lower-income workers and those without professional tax advice.

    It also preserves the option for Australians with an unusually high number of deductions to keep deducting item by item as they currently do.

    In contrast, the Coalition’s big-ticket announcement is a one-off Cost of Living Tax Offset. It offers a refund of up to $1200 to workers earning up to $144,000 annually.

    Similar in structure to the previous Morrison government’s Low and Middle Income Tax Offset (LMITO), this measure provides short-term relief rather than systemic reform.

    Economically, the Coalition’s approach injects rapid fiscal stimulus into the economy, targeting households under significant financial strain from rising living costs.

    By providing direct rebates after the lodgment of the 2025-26 tax return, the Coalition aims to boost disposable incomes and encourage consumer spending without permanently altering tax scales.

    The temporary nature of the Coalition’s offset, priced at $10 billion, allows fiscal flexibility. It mitigates potential inflationary pressures by avoiding permanent spending increases, thereby providing immediate relief without structurally embedding costs into the budget.

    Coupled with the Coalition’s pledge to cut the fuel excise by 25¢ per litre immediately after the election, the tax offset represents a significant short-term fiscal injection. It offers immediate political advantage but limited longer-term economic reform.

    The economic debate between Labor and the Coalition has now crystallised around differing perspectives on fiscal management and economic intervention.

    Labor prioritises systemic reforms aimed at simplification and equity. The Coalition emphasises immediate, substantial cash injections to households through temporary relief measures. Both policies entail substantial fiscal commitments, yet differ markedly in their timing, permanence and structural impact on the Australian economy.

    Voters face a clear economic choice: Labor’s systemic tax simplification versus the Coalition’s aggressive short-term tax relief.

    Isaac Gross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Voters have a clear choice. Labor’s long term and equitable tax reform or the Coalition’s big but one-off tax cuts – https://theconversation.com/voters-have-a-clear-choice-labors-long-term-and-equitable-tax-reform-or-the-coalitions-big-but-one-off-tax-cuts-254452

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Accra is a tough city to walk in: how city planners can fix the problem

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Seth Asare Okyere, Visiting lecturer, University of Pittsburg and Adjunct Associate Professor, Osaka University, University of Pittsburgh

    Humans are walking beings. Walking is intrinsically linked to our physical development from childhood and enables our connections with people and places. We can say it is essential to our physical and mental well-being.

    Walking can also help create inclusive and sustainable cities. Most western cities incorporate this need in their spatial planning.

    In African countries like Ghana, however, the fact that most people walk doesn’t always mean they prefer to. They need to walk because it’s cheaper than using motor vehicles. But many African cities are not friendly to pedestrians.

    More than 70% of the urban population in Africa walk daily for various purposes. To deal with the challenges pedestrians encounter, some African cities have incorporated policies and strategies for walking into their motorised transport policies. For instance, in Nigeria, the Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority has developed a policy that aims to create a safe and pleasant network of footpaths, greenways and other facilities that serve everyone in the city.

    In Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), a similar policy was developed. Its objective is to increase the number of people who walk by investing in walking facilities and improving connectivity to public transport.

    The strategies in these documents are commendable, but they have met practical challenges like funding, public perception and technical capacity.

    Ghana also has several transport and local development planning policies. Yet most urban areas in Ghana don’t have walking infrastructure and a safe walking environment.

    As scholars interested in sustainable urban development planning and policy, we reviewed some of these policies to explore how they treat walking as a way of getting around. The research also assessed institutional perspectives and residents’ everyday lived experiences of walkability in Accra, the capital city. We found that both policies and urban plans paid little attention to making the walking experience enjoyable.



    Read more:
    City streets: why South Africa should design more people-friendly spaces

    The study

    The Ghana Transport Survey Report indicates that over three-quarters (75.3%) of the country’s population make up to ten daily trips on foot, and most urban areas lack walking infrastructure. Pedestrians account for about 42% of road deaths in Ghana.

    We chose two study sites in Accra, the capital, where many come to find work. The sites represented inner-city and suburban areas. The research used in-depth and semi-structured interviews with 80 people to capture the perspectives of institutional representatives and community residents. We explored walking experiences in terms of accessibility, safety and enjoyment.

    Findings

    Accessibility: The national transport policy seeks to provide dedicated, safe, reliable and appropriate facilities for users across all transport modes. What we found, however, was an absence of infrastructure to enhance pedestrian access to facilities and services.

    One resident commented:

    The roads are not only in poor condition but they have no sidewalks. It is not hard to assume that these were built for car owners, not pedestrians’ everyday use.

    Safety: The research revealed a chasm between policy ambitions for walking and realities at the community level. Municipal development plans don’t say how they will address the frequent crashes that result from commuters, vendors and motorists competing for space. The most at risk are pedestrians, who represent 42% of transport-related fatalities. This is because of noncompliance with bylaws that regulate activities on the roads and pedestrian pathways.

    One municipal official said:

    Look at the streets: Motorists, street vendors, school children on the same street space. There is encroachment, reckless driving, illegally parked cars on road shoulders. School children and the disabled face constant risks. But the plan aims to make the neighborhoods walkable. Just words as always.

    Enjoyment: Enjoyment was the least considered aspect of walkability in both national policy and municipal development plans. The absence of facilities and infrastructure that offer comfort, aesthetics and other pleasures for pedestrians provides a clear indication of this.

    A community leader complained:

    Flooding and poor sanitation create an unpleasant walking environment. Clogged waste, poor drains, and rubbish along streets and alleyways are a problem. There is nothing pleasant about walking: the smell, the dust, the noise and the heat. You walk because you have no choice.



    Read more:
    New forms of urban planning are emerging in Africa

    Towards cities that are walkable

    The deep gulf between what the policies say and everyday experiences in our study calls for new ways of thinking and implementation within the urban transport in Ghana’s development planning regime.

    We suggest that there is a need for transport planners, urban and development planners, and policymakers to consider coproduction strategies in identifying, framing, developing, and implementing interventions. This will help harness the potential for walking as a social equaliser and its contribution to healthy, safe, equitable cities and communities.

    Here, action-oriented collaborative strategies like workshops that consider communities as partners can transition African urban residents from captive walkers to walkers who enjoy it.

    Seth Asare Okyere receives funding from the Volvo Research and Educational Foundations.

    Daniel Oviedo receives funding from University College London and the Volvo Research and Educational Foundations.

    Louis Kusi Frimpong receives funding from the Volvo Research and Educational Foundations (VREF) funding program

    Mariajose Nieto receives funding from Volvo Research and Educational Foundation

    Matthew Abunyewah and Stephen Leonard Mensah do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Accra is a tough city to walk in: how city planners can fix the problem – https://theconversation.com/accra-is-a-tough-city-to-walk-in-how-city-planners-can-fix-the-problem-253636

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Power drives global affairs today, not rules – what Africa’s strategies should be

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Kennedy Mbeva, Research Associate, University of Cambridge

    A new world order is emerging. The United States is no longer the sole force shaping global events; countries like China, Russia, India and the Gulf states are growing in influence.

    This shift has intensified global competition and made international cooperation more challenging. In today’s world, power, not rules, is the key driver of global affairs.

    What is Africa’s role? Drawing on our research, we argue that the continent should adopt a pragmatic strategy involving two elements. First, identifying issues suitable for collective action, like climate diplomacy and a seat at the UN security council. Second, recognising those that require regional or domestic policy, such as regional conflicts and trade agreements.

    We propose this approach because Africa is not a single state or supranational entity. A grand strategy is therefore impractical. Instead, our proposal accepts that some issues are best tackled collectively, while others may require regional or unilateral action.

    New doctrines are needed

    Countries could collectively adopt something like a “doctrine”, such as the Lagos Plan of Action (1980-2000). The plan outlines an ambitious goal of boosting Africa’s self-reliance through development and economic integration. Also, the Declaration of Monrovia of 1973, which emphasises the need for collective self-reliance. This was Africa’s contribution to the calls for a new international economic order at the end of the second world war. While these documents were developed to reflect the world at that time, they may serve as an inspiration for a new strategy that reflects the emerging new world order.

    The Monroe and Truman doctrines outlined how the US could secure its global dominance. Both highlight the power of well-defined principles in guiding strategy.

    African countries could adopt a new doctrine on how the continent can enhance its position in the emerging global order. The doctrine would present an opportunity for African countries to develop a clear and coherent strategy for effective engagement, appreciating the opportunities and limitations of the new world order. It should also appreciate the difficulty of coordinating diverse countries in the continent. This is possible by building on the spirit and legacy of Lagos and Monrovia strategies.



    Read more:
    African Union’s new chair has a long list of tough tasks – what it will take to get them done

    Seismic changes

    Geoeconomics, where security and economics influence geopolitics, is reshaping Africa.

    Concerns have been raised about the possible termination of the African Growth and Opportunity Act by the US administration. This legislation grants African countries preferential access to the US market.

    For their part, African countries established the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement in 2018 to create a continental common market and reduce dependence on the global economic system.

    Yet Africa’s ambitious trade plans face threats from global shifts as well as internal dynamics. For example, the Trump administration has slammed high tariffs on virtually all trade partners, including African countries. Lesotho received the highest tariffs (50%) of all US trading partners. This might affect preferential access agreements such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act.

    Other major economies such as the EU and China are also exploring opportunities to conclude bilateral trade deals with African countries. These developments could undermine the goal of creating an exclusive continental market.

    Internal dynamics within the continent are also not stable. When Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger left the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) to form the Alliance of Sahel States in 2024, commentators blamed regional instability. We argue, however, that the breakup of Ecowas is a warning about the limits of integration.

    The fact that the Alliance for Sahel States is based on a security pact rather than economic integration highlights how extreme risks can reconfigure continental unity. For fragile states, securing political stability is necessary for economic integration. Security rather than economics is the primary policy concern for such states.

    Similar challenges arise in climate diplomacy. African countries, which have contributed least to global climate change, are pressured to assume greater responsibility with little international support. Yet they continue suffering its worsening impacts. At the same time, African states have received little of the international support necessary to support them to address climate action. Such support includes climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building.

    African policymakers have responded creatively by making their national climate pledges under the Paris Agreement conditional on international support in finance, technology transfer and capacity-building. And they say initiatives to address climate change should also contribute to the broader goals of sustainable development.

    As we argue in a recently published book, this approach ensures that Africa can pursue sustainable development while contributing to the global climate effort. It also aligns with the continent’s long-standing emphasis on the development aspects of environmental politics.

    The solution

    Our suggestion is a simple, pragmatic concept: African countries should work together on some issues and act alone on others.

    Unlike the common African positions adopted through the African Union, this approach clearly lays out when cooperation is best and when countries should follow their own path. It offers a clear set of guiding principles such as the need for flexibility for cooperation and unilateral actions when consensus is unattainable. This can serve as a blueprint for future policies and help coordinate Africa’s diplomacy.

    This has several advantages. It’s simple and straightforward, recognises national differences while encouraging cooperation, and strengthens Africa’s voice and role on the global stage.

    A major challenge is getting all countries to agree on how flexibility should balance between consensus and unilateral action by African countries.

    But the strategy would acknowledge the need for flexibility to balance Africa’s ambition for greater global leadership. This must also be within the limits set by global and domestic realities.



    Read more:
    The African Union is weak because its members want it that way – experts call for action on its powers

    Looking forward

    As the world adjusts to a new global order where multilateralism is in decline and power politics dominate, Africa can take advantage of opportunities to shape global affairs and secure its collective policy goals. This can be done through its seat at the G20.

    But it requires a clear and coherent strategy.

    Dr Kennedy Mbeva receives funding from the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment

    Reuben Makomere receives funding from University of Cambridge – Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CESR)

    – ref. Power drives global affairs today, not rules – what Africa’s strategies should be – https://theconversation.com/power-drives-global-affairs-today-not-rules-what-africas-strategies-should-be-251078

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Election Diary: Liberal and Labor launches focus on housing, but who thinks either side can fix that crisis any time soon?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    If anyone had any doubts before, Sunday’s Liberal and Labor launches highlighted that this election is an auction for votes, in particular those of the under 40s and people in the outer suburbs.

    Amid the usual launch hoopla – the Liberals choosing western Sydney and Labor returning to Perth – both parties announced major fresh housing initiatives. They were making a deep bow to what’s a central issue for younger Australians who still aspire to the so-called “Australian dream” but can’t see themselves affording it.

    Significantly, Peter Dutton also produced a tax handout – a tax offset of up to $1200 targeted to lower and middle income earners. This was despite his signalling earlier in the campaign he wouldn’t be able to afford to do so. On tax, Anthony Albanese promised people would be able to claim a $1000 automatic tax deduction for work expenses (at a cost of $2.4 billion over the forward estimates).

    The Liberal campaign has been flagging. Labor has appeared headed for victory, at least in a comfortable minority. The Liberals might say they’ve been working on the policies produced on Sunday for some time, but they do have a “break glass” feel about them, as the opposition seeks to reinvigorate its campaign.

    The Liberals’ proposal for the interest on a mortgage to be tax deductible has strict limits. It only applies to first home buyers, to new homes and (for the house buyer) for five years, and provided the buyer remains living in the home. There is a means test, and the interest deductibility only applies on the first $650,000 of the loan. This is why the plan is costed at a modest $1.25 billion over the forward estimates.

    The plan will come under some tough criticism in the final three weeks of the campaign. Independent economist Saul Eslake said on Sunday the policy would put upward pressure on house prices. “We have 60 years of evidence going back to the Menzies government’s initial first home owners’ grant scheme that anything allowing people to spend more on housing than they otherwise would results in more expensive housing and a smaller proportion of the population owning it.”

    Eslake argues that when this policy is combined with the Liberals’ policy to give people access to their superannuation for a deposit, “they make a candidate for the worst policy decision of the 21st century so far.”

    In its new housing offer, Labor is promising to invest $10 billion for the construction of up to 100,000 new homes to be sold only to first home owners. Also, the present scheme under which the government guarantees a 5% home deposit would have the means test removed (the Liberals would also tweak some detail of this measure).

    Labor in its first term committed to spending $33 billion and set a target of 1.2 million new homes over five years. Progress to the target is off course. The latest initiatives could be seen by some voters as more of the same.

    The Liberals hope the interest deductibility policy might be a show stopper. But there is a salutary lesson from the 2022 campaign. The Liberals also came out at that campaign launch with a big housing initiative – to allow people access to their super for the purchase of their first home.

    It wasn’t the “game changer” Scott Morrison labelled it. It was too late, for one thing. For another, policy auction or not, many voters make decisions on wider criteria, including what they think of the leaders and the context in which the contest is taking place.

    The latter is especially important this election, when the vagaries of the Trump administration are driving some voters towards staying with “the devil you know”.

    While the Liberals’ tax offset announcement came as a surprise, perhaps it was inevitable the Coalition would have to offer something on taxation. It seemed at the time crazy brave for the opposition to reject the government’s $17 billion budget package of tax cuts.

    The opposition rationalises the money involved in its election carrots. The earlier-announced cuts in petrol and diesel fuel excise (costing $6 billion) would last a year (although open to extension). Then the $10 billion tax offset would cut in. The Liberals argue this sequencing balances immediate cost-of-living relief with economic responsibility.

    Nevertheless, the opposition’s giveaways don’t sit easily with its mantra about the need to cut spending. We have yet to see the circle squared, and that will only come (if it does) at the end of the campaign when the accounting numbers are all submitted.

    Meanwhile, Labor is making the most of the threat of Dutton’s unknown spending cuts. Albanese said in his speech: “If Peter Dutton won’t tell you what cuts he will make before you vote, if he refuses to say where the $600 billion for his nuclear reactors will come from, then every other promise is worthless.”

    The figure of Donald Trump continues to hang over the campaign, with Albanese declaring “the Liberals want to copy from overseas”.

    In an own goal on Saturday Jacinta Price, who is shadow minister for government efficiency, referred to the opposition’s commitment to “make Australia great again” at an appearance with Dutton.

    Dutton’s launch speech ran for the best part of an hour, with three former prime ministers, John Howard, Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison, in the audience. Predictably, there was no sign of Malcolm Turnbull.

    Julia Gillard was there for Albanese’s launch. Paul Keating didn’t make the trek to Perth; Kevin Rudd, as ambassador in Washington, has other responsibilities these days.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Election Diary: Liberal and Labor launches focus on housing, but who thinks either side can fix that crisis any time soon? – https://theconversation.com/election-diary-liberal-and-labor-launches-focus-on-housing-but-who-thinks-either-side-can-fix-that-crisis-any-time-soon-254206

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Accra is a tough city to walk in: how city planners can fix the problem

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Seth Asare Okyere, Visiting lecturer, University of Pittsburg and Adjunct Associate Professor, Osaka University, University of Pittsburgh

    Humans are walking beings. Walking is intrinsically linked to our physical development from childhood and enables our connections with people and places. We can say it is essential to our physical and mental well-being.

    Walking can also help create inclusive and sustainable cities. Most western cities incorporate this need in their spatial planning.

    In African countries like Ghana, however, the fact that most people walk doesn’t always mean they prefer to. They need to walk because it’s cheaper than using motor vehicles. But many African cities are not friendly to pedestrians.

    More than 70% of the urban population in Africa walk daily for various purposes. To deal with the challenges pedestrians encounter, some African cities have incorporated policies and strategies for walking into their motorised transport policies. For instance, in Nigeria, the Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority has developed a policy that aims to create a safe and pleasant network of footpaths, greenways and other facilities that serve everyone in the city.

    In Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), a similar policy was developed. Its objective is to increase the number of people who walk by investing in walking facilities and improving connectivity to public transport.

    The strategies in these documents are commendable, but they have met practical challenges like funding, public perception and technical capacity.

    Ghana also has several transport and local development planning policies. Yet most urban areas in Ghana don’t have walking infrastructure and a safe walking environment.

    As scholars interested in sustainable urban development planning and policy, we reviewed some of these policies to explore how they treat walking as a way of getting around. The research also assessed institutional perspectives and residents’ everyday lived experiences of walkability in Accra, the capital city. We found that both policies and urban plans paid little attention to making the walking experience enjoyable.



    Read more:
    City streets: why South Africa should design more people-friendly spaces

    The study

    The Ghana Transport Survey Report indicates that over three-quarters (75.3%) of the country’s population make up to ten daily trips on foot, and most urban areas lack walking infrastructure. Pedestrians account for about 42% of road deaths in Ghana.

    We chose two study sites in Accra, the capital, where many come to find work. The sites represented inner-city and suburban areas. The research used in-depth and semi-structured interviews with 80 people to capture the perspectives of institutional representatives and community residents. We explored walking experiences in terms of accessibility, safety and enjoyment.

    Findings

    Accessibility: The national transport policy seeks to provide dedicated, safe, reliable and appropriate facilities for users across all transport modes. What we found, however, was an absence of infrastructure to enhance pedestrian access to facilities and services.

    One resident commented:

    The roads are not only in poor condition but they have no sidewalks. It is not hard to assume that these were built for car owners, not pedestrians’ everyday use.

    Safety: The research revealed a chasm between policy ambitions for walking and realities at the community level. Municipal development plans don’t say how they will address the frequent crashes that result from commuters, vendors and motorists competing for space. The most at risk are pedestrians, who represent 42% of transport-related fatalities. This is because of noncompliance with bylaws that regulate activities on the roads and pedestrian pathways.

    One municipal official said:

    Look at the streets: Motorists, street vendors, school children on the same street space. There is encroachment, reckless driving, illegally parked cars on road shoulders. School children and the disabled face constant risks. But the plan aims to make the neighborhoods walkable. Just words as always.

    Enjoyment: Enjoyment was the least considered aspect of walkability in both national policy and municipal development plans. The absence of facilities and infrastructure that offer comfort, aesthetics and other pleasures for pedestrians provides a clear indication of this.

    A community leader complained:

    Flooding and poor sanitation create an unpleasant walking environment. Clogged waste, poor drains, and rubbish along streets and alleyways are a problem. There is nothing pleasant about walking: the smell, the dust, the noise and the heat. You walk because you have no choice.



    Read more:
    New forms of urban planning are emerging in Africa

    Towards cities that are walkable

    The deep gulf between what the policies say and everyday experiences in our study calls for new ways of thinking and implementation within the urban transport in Ghana’s development planning regime.

    We suggest that there is a need for transport planners, urban and development planners, and policymakers to consider coproduction strategies in identifying, framing, developing, and implementing interventions. This will help harness the potential for walking as a social equaliser and its contribution to healthy, safe, equitable cities and communities.

    Here, action-oriented collaborative strategies like workshops that consider communities as partners can transition African urban residents from captive walkers to walkers who enjoy it.

    Seth Asare Okyere receives funding from the Volvo Research and Educational Foundations.

    Daniel Oviedo receives funding from University College London and the Volvo Research and Educational Foundations.

    Louis Kusi Frimpong receives funding from the Volvo Research and Educational Foundations (VREF) funding program

    Mariajose Nieto receives funding from Volvo Research and Educational Foundation

    Matthew Abunyewah and Stephen Leonard Mensah do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Accra is a tough city to walk in: how city planners can fix the problem – https://theconversation.com/accra-is-a-tough-city-to-walk-in-how-city-planners-can-fix-the-problem-253636

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for April 13, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on April 13, 2025.

    ‘Trump fatigue’ is putting Kiwis off the news, with trust in media still low – new report
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Merja Myllylahti, Senior Lecturer, Co-Director Research Centre for Journalism, Media & Democracy, Auckland University of Technology Getty Images The news media is doing its best to keep everyone up to speed with the pace of Donald Trump’s radical changes to the world order. But in Aotearoa New

    Health workers call for NZ government to join global demands for ambulance massacre inquiry
    Asia Pacific Report Health workers spoke out at a rally condemning Israel’s genocide in Gaza and the latest atrocity against Palestinian aid workers today, calling on the New Zealand government to join global demands for an independent investigation. They were protesting over last month’s massacre of 15 Palestinian rescue workers and the destruction of their

    Albanese pitches to aspiring home buyers with $10 billion plan and removal of means test on deposit guarantee
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Anthony Albanese will promise a $10 billion scheme to facilitate the building of up to 100,000 homes that would be earmarked for sale to first home buyers. To be unveiled at Labor’s formal campaign launch in Perth on Sunday, the

    Dutton to offer targeted income tax offset of up to $1,200
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Peter Dutton at his party launch on Sunday will offer a “cost of living tax offset” of up to $1,200 to more than 10 million taxpayers. The one-off offset would go to taxpayers earning up to $144,000 when they lodged

    Caitlin Johnstone: Israel’s innocent oopsie-poopsie medical massacre mistake
    Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – COMMENTARY: By Caitlin Johnstone The Israeli military changed its story many times about why its forces killed 15 medical workers and then buried them and their vehicles to hide the evidence. After their initial claim that the medical vehicles were approaching “suspiciously” without their emergency lights

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Trump fatigue’ is putting Kiwis off the news, with trust in media still low – new report

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Merja Myllylahti, Senior Lecturer, Co-Director Research Centre for Journalism, Media & Democracy, Auckland University of Technology

    Getty Images

    The news media is doing its best to keep everyone up to speed with the pace of Donald Trump’s radical changes to the world order.

    But in Aotearoa New Zealand, where avoiding news is more common than in other countries, many of us are blocking our ears to it all.

    In 2025, “Trump fatigue” is now one of the key reasons 73% of New Zealanders say they actively avoid the news to some extent. For context, in Finland (where trust in news is highest), avoidance sits at only 21%.

    For our 2025 Trust in News report, we asked New Zealanders why they were avoiding the news and analysed 749 responses. A couple of quotes give a sense of what we found:

    “Trump, Trump, Trump and no real investigative news.” – Female, European/Pākehā, aged 55-64, party vote Labour in 2023.

    “I actively avoid any news of Donald Trump. If I hear any extreme right-wing views on the news […] I will turn it off. There is no place for that.” – Female, European/Pākehā, aged 35-44, party vote National in 2023.

    This fatigue appears to cross age, gender and even political boundaries. Incessant news about the unpredictable United States president had similar effects on a middle-aged Pākehā woman who voted National, an elderly Māori woman who voted Labour, and a middle-aged Pākehā who identified as “another gender” and voted Te Pāti Māori.

    Many said Trump-related reporting encouraged them to disengage from news entirely, or at least selectively avoid US politics.

    Other reasons for avoiding the news were familiar to us from earlier research: the overwhelming negativity, perceived political bias from journalists, sensationalism and the repetitive nature of the news cycle.

    The trust puzzle

    To measure general trust in news, we asked respondents to what extent they feel they can “trust most news most of the time”. The numbers agreeing with that statement have plummeted in New Zealand faster than in comparable countries, from 53% in 2020 to 33% in 2024.

    The slide has slowed, however, with general trust levels falling just one percentage point to 32% in 2025.

    We also asked respondents how much they agreed with this statement: “I think I can trust most of the news I consume most of the time.” Those who agreed stayed steady at 45%.

    And trust in all the New Zealand news brands we asked about had improved. Overall, trust in news appears to be stabilising, albeit at low levels.

    That may be better news for a functioning democracy, but our latest report also shows the number of New Zealanders “interested” or “very interested” in the news has dropped, from 72% in 2024 to 69% in 2025.

    At the same time, New Zealand has among the highest overall levels of interest in the news (92% at least “somewhat interested”) when compared internationally.

    This is something of a paradox, given the high numbers of news avoiders, with one-third (34%) of those surveyed saying they are “worn out by the amount of news these days”.

    Similarly, sizeable majorities say they are “highly interested” in international news (70%) and political news (60%). Yet many feel overwhelmed by the number of stories dealing with Trump, Gaza and Ukraine.

    One male respondent, 55-64 years old, said: “I try to Trumptox as much as is possible. He’s hard to escape currently, so I find myself [going] near news generally less and less to avoid the creep.”

    Politics and the news

    We also wanted to better understand the links between trust in news and politics, so this year we asked for respondents’ political leanings.

    Going by 2023 party vote, approximately 64% of those on the right and 54% on the centre-right believe you can’t trust the news. Those who trust the news most tend to be centre-left (46%) and left (40%).

    Those who voted ACT or NZ First in 2023 were more likely to avoid the news often. Those who distrust publicly-owned broadcasters RNZ and TVNZ tended to be on the right of the political spectrum, while those who distrust Newstalk ZB tended to be on the left.

    Social media as a news source

    The latest Reuters Institute survey of 47 countries found the use of Facebook for news had declined four percentage points in a year, with 26% of respondents now using it as a source.

    In New Zealand, the trend is the opposite. Facebook continues to be the main social media news source, rising from 53% in 2024 to 58% in our 2025 survey.

    But YouTube is growing fastest as a news platform in New Zealand: 43% of people in 2025 use the video-sharing platform as a news source, rising from 33% in 2024.

    Facebook, YouTube and Instagram are now among the seven most-used news sources in Aotearoa New Zealand. In order, according to our survey, these are Stuff, TVNZ, the New Zealand Herald, Facebook, YouTube, RNZ and Instagram.

    AI in the newsroom

    New Zealand newsrooms have rapidly adopted artificial intelligence (AI) tools in news gathering and production. One recent report suggested most story selection and placement on a major local news site is managed by AI.

    It remains to be seen how far into news production this trend will continue. But when we asked our survey respondents if they were comfortable with news mostly produced by AI with some human oversight, approximately 60% said no. Only 8% were comfortable with news mainly produced by AI.

    Conversely, when we asked about news produced mainly by human journalists with assistance from AI, 26% were comfortable and 35% felt uncomfortable. At the moment, then, New Zealanders seem to be generally wary of news produced or assisted by AI.

    Change is the only constant in New Zealand’s turbulent news media sector. As new complexities like AI emerge, the trust puzzle will become more complex too. Next year’s survey will give us a better sense of where these trends and attitudes are heading.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘Trump fatigue’ is putting Kiwis off the news, with trust in media still low – new report – https://theconversation.com/trump-fatigue-is-putting-kiwis-off-the-news-with-trust-in-media-still-low-new-report-252714

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Health workers call for NZ government to join global demands for ambulance massacre inquiry

    Asia Pacific Report

    Health workers spoke out at a rally condemning Israel’s genocide in Gaza and the latest atrocity against Palestinian aid workers today, calling on the New Zealand government to join global demands for an independent investigation.

    They were protesting over last month’s massacre of 15 Palestinian rescue workers and the destruction of their ambulances in Gaza’s Rafah district under heavy fire.

    The Palestinian Red Crescent Society (PRCS) has called for an independent international inquiry into the “deliberate killing” of 8 ambulance medics, 6 civil defence workers and 1 UN worker reportedly executed by the Israeli forces on March 23.

    Their ambulances were destroyed and buried together with the bodies of the victims in a shallow grave a week after the crews went missing.

    One PRCS paramedic, Assaad al-Nassasra, was reported to be still missing.

    Among the speakers in the rally in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland’s Te Komititanga Square, Amnesty International’s Audrey Van Ryn said: “These killings must be independently and impartially investigated and the perpetrators held to account.

    “Medical personnel carrying out their humanitarian duties most be respected and protected in all circumstances.”

    Health worker Jason Brooke read out a message from the secretary-general of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Jagan Chapagain, in response to the killing of the Palestinian first-responders.

    ‘Their ambulances were clearly marked’
    “I am heartbroken. These dedicated ambulance workers were responding to wounded people. They were humanitarians. They wore emblems that should have protected them; their ambulances were clearly marked,” said Chapagain.

    “They should have returned to their families; they did not.”

    Fourteen of the Palestinian aid workers killed by Israel last month. The 15th is still missing. Graphic: Al Jazeera/Creative Commons

    Their bodies were discovered a week later by fellow workers. A video from one of the slain Palestinian Red Crescent medics contradicting the lies propagated by Israel’s military that the vehicles were “advancing suspiciously toward IDF troops without headlights or emergency signals”

    These first responders were not mistakenly misidentified. They were travelling, clearly visible in red crescent marked ambulances with their lights on. They posed no threat.

    According to the United Nations, at least 1060 healthcare workers have been killed in the 18 months since Israel launched its genocidal offensive in Gaza.

    “Whether it’s first-responders and medics, health workers or reporters, not only are these workers being targeted with impunity by the IOF, but their deaths seem to barely cause a ripple,” said Brooke, who was greeted with cries of shame.

    “Where is the condemnation of our politicians? Our media?”

    ‘Dehumanisation of Palestinian life’
    “As the Palestinian poet and author Mohammed El-Kurd suggests, what we are witnessing is the dehumanisation of Palestinian life.

    “Israel only has to mention the word ‘Hamas’ and the indoctrinated look-away. As if resistance to genocide itself were a crime — the punishment a life predetermined for death.

    “Genocide does not distinguish between civilian, aid worker, health worker, reporter and militant. All are condemned.”

    Medical personnel, medical transport, hospitals and other medical facilities, the injured and sick are all specifically protected under international humanitarian law.

    The devastating Gaza massacre represents the single most deadly attack on Red Cross or Red Crescent workers anywhere in the world since 2017.

    Secretary-general Chapagain said: “The number of Palestine Red Crescent volunteers and staff killed since the start of this conflict is now 30.

    “We stand with Palestine Red Crescent and the loved ones of those killed on this darkest of days.”

    PSNA advocate Janfrie Wakim . . . “We mourn those thousands of innocent people . . . who made the ultimate sacrifice with their lives.” Image: Asia Pacific Report

    ‘Palestine wants freedom to live’
    Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA) advocate Janfrie Wakim called on the crowd to give each other “high fives” in recognition of their solidarity in turning up for the protest in the 79th week since the war began.

    “I like the sign in front of me: ‘Palestine wants the freedom to live while Israel has the freedom to kill!’ she said.

    “We mourn those thousands of innocent people  — some with families here and in Gaza and the West Bank — who made the ultimate sacrifice with their lives, and the thousands unaccounted for in rubble and over 100,000 injured.

    “Palestine wants the freedom to live while Israel has the freedom to kill!” . . . a placard at today’s Auckland solidarity rally. Image: Asia Pacific Report

    “Mostly women and children.

    “The humanitarian workers who have been murdered serving humanity.”

    Wakim said the genocide had been enabled by the wealthiest countries in the world and Western media — “including our own with few exceptions”.

    “Without its lies, its deflections, its failure to report the agonising reality of Palestinians suffering, Israel would not have been able to commit its atrocities.”

    All fatalities women and children
    Meanwhile, the United Nations reports Palestinian women and children were the only fatalities in at least three dozen Israeli air strikes on Gaza since mid-March, as it warned that Israel’s military offensive threatened Palestinians’ “continued existence as a group”.

    Ravina Shamdasani, spokeswoman for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said on Friday that the office had documented 224 Israeli strikes on residential buildings and tents for displaced people in the Gaza Strip between March 18 and April 9.

    “In some 36 strikes about which the UN Human Rights Office corroborated information, the fatalities recorded so far were only women and children,” she said.

    The findings come as Israel’s attacks on Gaza have killed more than 1500 Palestinians since the Israeli military broke a ceasefire in March, according to figures from the Palestinian Ministry of Health, reports Al Jazeera.

    A German official was the latest to call for an independent probe over Israel’s killing of the 15 medical aid workers.

    An investigation into Israel’s killing of paramedics must be carried out independently, said German Federal Government Commissioner for Human Rights Policy and Humanitarian Assistance Luise Amtsberg.

    “This alleged violation of international law must not go unpunished,” Amtsberg said in a message on social media platform Bluesky.

    Israel’s ‘distortion’ straining ties
    “The investigation must be carried out quickly and independently, and the perpetrators must be brought to justice as soon as possible. The Israeli government and judiciary have a duty here,” she said.

    Israel’s distortion of the event was “once again” straining ties between Germany and Israel, she added.

    Myriam Laaroussi, an emergency coordinator with Doctors Without Borders, known by its French initials MSF, told Al Jazeera from al-Mawasi, an area west of Khan Younis that houses thousands of displaced Gaza families, that the health system had been destroyed.

    Due to the Israeli blockade, the supplies needed to treat patients were lacking and had left children in Gaza vulnerable to disease, she said.

    The desalination unit was not functioning any more due to Israel’s decision to cut electricity, which had decreased the capacity to retain good hygiene and was leading to outbreaks of polio and scabies.

    “We see that it’s a ‘slow death’ for many Palestinians, with shortages of food and water leading to a loss of weight and medical issues,” she said.

    The ceasefire had been an opportunity to scale up the capacity of the different health facilities, but it had been too short to have enough effect, and now health facilities were being attacked again.

    A “Free free Palestine” placard at today’s Auckland solidarity rally. Image: Asia Pacific Report

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Dutton to offer targeted income tax offset of up to $1,200

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Peter Dutton at his party launch on Sunday will offer a “cost of living tax offset” of up to $1,200 to more than 10 million taxpayers.

    The one-off offset would go to taxpayers earning up to $144,000 when they lodged their tax return for next financial year, making it more than a year off.

    The full offset would be available to those earning between $48,000 and $104,000 a year. About 85% of taxpayers would benefit from the offset and about half of all taxpayers would receive the maximum offset.

    The tax offer, costing 10 billion, compares with the government’s tax cuts – announced in the budget and legislated that week – that phase in starting mid next year and cost $17 billion over the forward estimates.

    The Coalition’s tax announcement comes as something of a surprise. The opposition had given the impression it believed tax cuts unaffordable.

    There was some disquiet in Coalition ranks at the decision to oppose the government’s tax cuts, and concern about the opposition going to the election with no promise for income tax relief.

    Dutton has returned to a former Coalition policy. The Morrison government introduced a low and middle income tax offset in the 2018-19 tax year. It was subsequently extended but then abolished by the Labor government.

    Dutton said the temporary and targeted offset would provide support for families while a Coalition government addressed the underlying economic problems.

    “Australians are hurting,” Dutton said.

    He said people needed help now.

    “A Coalition government will first provide help to families by cutting fuel by 25 cents a litre – a saving of about $1,500 a year for a two car family. And then by giving back up to $2,400 per family whilst we clean up Labor’s mess. Labor’s 70 cents a day is a bandaid on a bullet wound.

    “Our Cost of Living Tax Offset will put more money back into the pockets of millions of Australians at a time when they’re being crushed by skyrocketing grocery bills, rent, mortgage repayments and insurance costs.”

    He said “Labor’s “so-called tax cut – just 70 cents a day – is a slap in the face to hard working Australians and an insult to families trying to make ends meet”.

    “It shows just how out of touch Mr Albanese really is.”

    Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor said the Coalition’s tax relief was responsible, temporary and targeted.

    “Labor’s big spending agenda is fueling inflation and driving up the cost of everything.

    “This offset is part of our comprehensive plan to rebuild the economy, ease cost of living pressures, and reward hard work.”

    The Liberal launch is in Sydney.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Dutton to offer targeted income tax offset of up to $1,200 – https://theconversation.com/dutton-to-offer-targeted-income-tax-offset-of-up-to-1-200-254204

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Albanese pitches to aspiring home buyers with $10 billion plan and removal of means test on deposit guarantee

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Anthony Albanese will promise a $10 billion scheme to facilitate the building of up to 100,000 homes that would be earmarked for sale to first home buyers.

    To be unveiled at Labor’s formal campaign launch in Perth on Sunday, the proposal would also give all first home buyers access to a federal government guarantee for a 5% deposit.

    At present this guarantee is provided only on a means tested basis, up to an income level of $120,000 for singles and $160,000 for couples.

    The government would also raise the price levels for properties to be eligible under the scheme.

    With the guarantee, buyers avoid having to pay expensive lenders mortgage insurance.

    The present 50,000 cap on the number of guarantees available would also be removed.
    The latest pledge takes the Labor government’s commitment to housing over its term to $43 billion.

    Housing affordability is one of the major issues of the campaign, especially for young voters. A survey by money.com.au recently found housing affordability and rental stress were the dominant concerns for Australians under 40.

    “Labor will enable every Australian to buy their first home with a 5% deposit,” the government says in a statement on its proposals. “There will be higher property price limits and no caps on places or income, in a major expansion of the existing scheme.”

    The present median home price in Australia is $820,000; 5% of that is $41,000.

    Under the changes, a Sydneysider and first home buyer would be able to purchase a $1 million apartment with a $50,000 deposit with their loan guaranteed by the Albanese government.“

    Property price limit rises


    Labor Press Release

    The government says the plan would cut the time people needed to save a deposit, and save them tens of thousands of dollars on lenders mortgage insurance.

    In its $10 billion investment, the government would partner with state developers and industry, to identify suitable projects, including the use of vacant or underused government land. States and territories would fast track land release, rezoning and planning approvals.

    The $10 billion would include up to $2 billion in grants and $8 billion in zero-interest loans or equity investment, primarily to states and territories. States and territories would have to match the $2 billion federal grants.

    The government says construction on the first projects would start in 2026-27, with buyers moving in from 2027-28.

    Albanese said: “I want to help young people and first home buyers achieve the dream of homeownership”.

    Housing minister Clare O’Neil said: “Young Australians are bearing the brunt of the housing crisis, and our government is going to step up to give them a fair go at owning their own home”.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Albanese pitches to aspiring home buyers with $10 billion plan and removal of means test on deposit guarantee – https://theconversation.com/albanese-pitches-to-aspiring-home-buyers-with-10-billion-plan-and-removal-of-means-test-on-deposit-guarantee-254205

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Caitlin Johnstone: Israel’s innocent oopsie-poopsie medical massacre mistake

    Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. –

    COMMENTARY: By Caitlin Johnstone

    The Israeli military changed its story many times about why its forces killed 15 medical workers and then buried them and their vehicles to hide the evidence. After their initial claim that the medical vehicles were approaching “suspiciously” without their emergency lights on was disproven by video evidence, they then called the whole thing a big mistake.

    Sure, who among us has not accidentally massacred 15 medical workers and buried them and their vehicles in a shallow grave from time to time? We’re only human, mistakes happen.

    Asked by the press about Israel’s latest war crime scandal, White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes blamed the whole thing on Hamas, saying, “Hamas uses ambulances and more broadly human shields for terrorism.


    “President Trump understands the impossible situation this tactic creates for Israel and holds Hamas entirely responsible.”

    Netanyahu could live stream himself eating a Palestinian baby and telling the camera “I am eating this baby because I love genocide,” and the next day Trump’s podium people would be responding to questions from the press by shrieking “HAMAS!” with their fingers in their ears.


    Israeli’s ‘innocent mistake’    Video/Audio: Caitlin Johnstone

    ❖

    To be helpful I have written some headlines the Western press can use to frame Israel executing 15 medical workers in the most positive light possible:

    “Fifteen medical workers pause rescue duties following bullet-related incident”

    “Rescue workers, vehicles found in shallow grave after perishing for mysterious and unknowable reasons”

    “Israeli forces appear to be suspected of possibly accidentally firing on ambulance staff by mistake, perchance”

    “Medical workers killed by IDF, says Hamas-affiliated United Nations”

    “IDF assists medical workers in locating scene of latest massacre in Gaza”

    “Jews in New York City feeling unsafe, unsupported in wake of latest Israel controversy”

    “IDF to launch investigation into alleged IDF oopsie-poopsie in Gaza”

    “The universe is an ineffable mystery; objectivity is a myth and our finite primate brains were not evolved to comprehend any ultimate truths about absolute reality in its naked form”

    “Gunshots heard in the Middle East. A flashing siren. Innocence no more.”

    “IDF hunted and slaughtered 15 healthcare workers and buried them and their vehicles to try to cover it up, please don’t fire me, that’s what happened, I’m just trying to do my job”

    ❖

    Not taking a position on Gaza is taking a position on Gaza. One you’ll have to live with for the rest of your life.

    ❖

    The mass media are giving so much more attention to this past weekend’s anti-Trump protests than they ever gave the anti-genocide protests because that is their job. It’s their job to amplify opposition between the two mainstream parties while marginalising those who oppose the crimes of both.

    Movements which keep people plugged in to the two-party sock puppet show will always be amplified and encouraged, while movements which highlight the abusiveness of the US empire regardless of who happens to be in office will always be ignored at best and smeared at worst.

    That’s why we’ve seen so much attention go into Trumpism and anti-Trumpism while genuine anti-war movements struggle to get off the ground, and while pro-Palestine demonstrators are slandered as anti-semitic terrorist supporters.

    As long as people can be herded into supporting either of the two mainstream parties against the other, they are fully plugged in to the artificially manufactured worldview which protects the interests of oligarchy and empire. When people draw attention to the tyranny and abuse of the US empire itself without getting drawn in to the two-handed puppet show of party politics, they unplug their minds from this worldview the propagandists have worked so hard to plug them in to.

    As long as enough people are either screaming “Trump!” or “Not Trump!”, the empire’s crimes can continue unimpeded. Only when people stop clapping along with the puppet show and start fighting against the empire itself will there be real change in a positive direction.

    This means opposing the abuses that are advanced by both parties like war, genocide, militarism, imperialism, capitalism, Zionism, and authoritarianism. Until then their political energy will keep being steered in directions which pose no threat to the powerful, like we’re seeing with these anti-Trump protests.

    ❖

    I’ve been seeing a lot of antiwar Trump supporters finally starting to admit that they were duped, and beginning to turn against him. I won’t join the voices slamming them for supporting Trump in the first place; I’ll only say welcome aboard, and congrats on being better people than everyone else who voted for Trump.

    Caitlin Johnstone is an Australian independent journalist and poet. Her articles include The UN Torture Report On Assange Is An Indictment Of Our Entire Society. She publishes a website and Caitlin’s Newsletter. This article is republished with permission.

    This article was first published on Café Pacific.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for April 12, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on April 12, 2025.

    Pacific climate activists join 180+ groups calling on COP30 hosts Brazil to end fossil fuel dependence
    RNZ Pacific Pacific climate activists this week handed a letter from civil society to this year’s United Nations climate conference hosts, Brazil, emphasising their demands for the end of fossil fuels and transition to renewable energy. More than 180 indigenous, youth, and environmental organisations from across the world have signed the letter, coordinated by the

    Election Diary: Labor breaks practice of preferencing Greens to protect Jewish MP Josh Burns
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra It takes a bit for Labor not to preference the Greens but on Friday it was announced that in the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Jewish MP Josh Burns is embattled, the ALP will run an open ticket. Macnamara, which

    ‘Delusional’ Treaty Principles Bill scrapped but fight for Te Tiriti just beginning, say lawyers and advocates
    By Layla Bailey-McDowell, RNZ Māori news journalist Legal experts and Māori advocates say the fight to protect Te Tiriti is only just beginning — as the controversial Treaty Principles Bill is officially killed in Parliament. The bill — which seeks to redefine the principles of Te Tiriti o Waitangi — sparked a nationwide hīkoi and

    Coalition plan to dump fuel efficiency penalties would make Australia a global outlier
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Mortimore, Lecturer, Griffith Business School, Griffith University The Coalition has announced it would, if elected to government, weaken a scheme aimed at cutting car emissions. The scheme, known as the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES), was introduced by the Albanese government and was due to take

    Peter Dutton’s climate policy backslide threatens Australia’s clout in the Pacific – right when we need it most
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wesley Morgan, Research Associate, Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney Australia’s relationship with its regional neighbours could be in doubt under a Coalition government after two Pacific leaders challenged Opposition Leader Peter Dutton over his weak climate stance. This week, Palau’s president Surangel Whipps Jr

    Could changing your diet improve endometriosis pain? A recent study suggests it’s possible
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Evangeline Mantzioris, Program Director of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Accredited Practising Dietitian, University of South Australia ovchinnikova_ksenya/Shutterstock Endometriosis affects around 10% of women of reproductive age. It’s a chronic inflammatory condition that occurs when tissue similar to the lining of the uterus (the endometrium) grows outside the

    Kids cheering ‘chicken jockey!’ at A Minecraft Movie isn’t antisocial – it creates a chance for us to connect
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sophia Staite, Lecturer in Humanities, University of Tasmania Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures Social media is ablaze with reports of kids going wild at screenings of A Minecraft Movie. Some cinemas are cracking down. There are reports of cinemas calling in police to deal with rowdy theatregoers

    Traded like assets, expected to be loyal: the unique double standard of being an Australian footy player
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hunter Fujak, Senior Lecturer in Sport Management, Deakin University Few issues in Australian sport generate as much media noise or emotional fan reactions as player movement, especially in our major winter codes the National Rugby League (NRL) and Australian Football League (AFL). Contract negotiations, trade whispers and

    We study ‘planktivores’ – and found an amazing diversity of shapes among plankton-feeding fishes
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Isabelle Ng, PhD candidate, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University A couple of whip coral goby (_Bryaninops yongei_). randi_ang/Shutterstock Swim along the edge of a coral reef and you’ll often see schools of sleek, torpedo-shaped fishes gliding through the currents, feeding on tiny plankton from

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Pacific climate activists join 180+ groups calling on COP30 hosts Brazil to end fossil fuel dependence

    RNZ Pacific

    Pacific climate activists this week handed a letter from civil society to this year’s United Nations climate conference hosts, Brazil, emphasising their demands for the end of fossil fuels and transition to renewable energy.

    More than 180 indigenous, youth, and environmental organisations from across the world have signed the letter, coordinated by the campaign organisation, 350.org.

    A declaration of alliance between Indigenous peoples from the Amazon, the Pacific, and Australia ahead of COP30 has also been announced.

    The “strongly worded letter” was handed to COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago and Brazil’s Environment and Climate Change Minister Marina Silva who attended the Acampamento Terra Livre (ATL), or Free Land Camp, in Brasília.

    “We, climate and social justice organisations from around the world, urgently demand that COP30 renews the global commitment and supports implementation for the just, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy,” the letter states.

    “This must ensure that solutions progressively meet the needs of Indigenous, Black, marginalised and vulnerable populations and accelerate the expansion of renewables in a way that ensures the world’s wealthiest and most polluting nations pay their fair share, does not harm nature, increase deforestation by burning biomass, while upholding economic, social, and gender justice.”

    ‘No room for new coal mines’
    It adds: “The science is unequivocal: there is no room for new coal mines or oil and gas fields if the world is to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius — especially in critical ecosystems like the Amazon, where COP30 will be hosted.

    “Tripling renewables by 2030 is essential, but without a managed and rapid phaseout of fossil fuels, it won’t be enough.”

    350.org’s Fiji community organiser, George Nacewa, said it was now up to the Brazil COP Presidency if they would act “or lock us into climate catastrophe”.

    “This is a critical time for our people — the age of deliberation is long past,” Nacewa said on behalf of the group that call themselves “Pacific Climate Warriors”.

    “We need this COP to be the one that spearheads the Just Energy Transition from words to action.”

    COP30 will take place in Belém, Brazil, from November 10-21.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: In trade war with the US, China holds a lot more cards than Trump may think − in fact, it might have a winning hand

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Linggong Kong, Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science, Auburn University

    When Donald Trump pulled back on his plan to impose eye-watering tariffs on trading partners across the world, there was one key exception: China.

    While the rest of the world would be given a 90-day reprieve on additional duties beyond the new 10% tariffs on all U.S. trade partners, China would feel the squeeze even more. On April 9, 2025, Trump raised the tariff on Chinese goods to 125%.

    The move, in Trump’s telling, was prompted by Beijing’s “lack of respect for global markets.” But the U.S. president may well have been smarting from Beijing’s apparent willingness to confront U.S. tariffs head on.

    While many countries opted not to retaliate against Trump’s now-delayed reciprocal tariff hikes, instead favoring negotiation and dialogue, Beijing took a different tack. It responded with swift and firm countermeasures. On April 11, China dismissed Trump’s moves as a “joke” and raised its own tariff against the U.S. to 125%.

    The two economies are now locked in an all-out, high-intensity trade standoff. And China is showing no signs of backing down.

    And as an expert on U.S.-China relations, I wouldn’t expect China to. Unlike the first U.S.-China trade war during Trump’s initial term, when Beijing eagerly sought to negotiate with the U.S., China now holds far more leverage.

    Indeed, Beijing believes it can inflict at least as much damage on the U.S. as vice versa, while at the same time expanding its global position.

    A changed calculus for China

    There’s no doubt that the consequences of tariffs are severe for China’s export-oriented manufacturers – especially those in the coastal regions producing furniture, clothing, toys and home appliances for American consumers.

    Amid tariffs, China’s President Xi Jinping senses a historic opportunity.
    Carlos Barria/AFP via Getty Images

    But since Trump first launched a tariff increase on China in 2018, a number of underlying economic factors have significantly shifted Beijing’s calculus.

    Crucially, the importance of the U.S. market to China’s export-driven economy has declined significantly. In 2018, at the start of the first trade war, U.S.-bound exports accounted for 19.8% of China’s total exports. In 2023, that figure had fallen to 12.8%. The tariffs may further prompt China to accelerate its “domestic demand expansion” strategy, unleashing the spending power of its consumers and strengthening its domestic economy.

    And while China entered the 2018 trade war in a phase of strong economic growth, the current situation is quite different. Sluggish real estate markets, capital flight and Western “decoupling” have pushed the Chinese economy into a period of persistent slowdown.

    Perhaps counterintuitively, this prolonged downturn may have made the Chinese economy more resilient to shocks. It has pushed businesses and policymakers to come to factor in the existing harsh economic realities, even before the impact of Trump’s tariffs.

    Trump’s tariff policy against China may also allow Beijing a useful external scapegoat, allowing it to rally public sentiment and shift blame for the economic slowdown onto U.S. aggression.

    China also understands that the U.S. cannot easily replace its dependency on Chinese goods, particularly through its supply chains. While direct U.S. imports from China have decreased, many goods now imported from third countries still rely on Chinese-made components or raw materials.

    By 2022, the U.S. relied on China for 532 key product categories – nearly four times the level in 2000 – while China’s reliance on U.S. products was cut by half in the same period.

    There’s a related public opinion calculation: Rising tariffs are expected to drive up prices, something that could stir discontent among American consumers, particularly blue-collar voters. Indeed, Beijing believes Trump’s tariffs risk pushing the previously strong U.S. economy toward a recession.

    U.S. President Donald Trump looks at Chinese President Xi Jinping during the plenary session at the G20 Summit on July 7, 2017, in Hamburg, Germany.
    Photo by Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

    Potent tools for retaliation

    Alongside the changed economic environments, China also holds a number of strategic tools for retaliation against the U.S.

    It dominates the global rare earth supply chain – critical to military and high-tech industries – supplying roughly 72% of U.S. rare earth imports, by some estimates. On March 4, China placed 15 American entities on its export control list, followed by another 12 on April 9. Many were U.S. defense contractors or high-tech firms reliant on rare earth elements for their products.

    China also retains the ability to target key U.S. agricultural export sectors such as poultry and soybeans – industries heavily dependent on Chinese demand and concentrated in Republican-leaning states. China accounts for about half of U.S. soybean exports and nearly 10% of American poultry exports. On March 4, Beijing revoked import approvals for three major U.S. soybean exporters.

    And on the tech side, many U.S. companies – such as Apple and Tesla – remain deeply tied to Chinese manufacturing. Tariffs threaten to shrink their profit margins significantly, something Beijing believes can be used as a source of leverage against the Trump administration. Already, Beijing is reportedly planning to strike back through regulatory pressure on U.S. companies operating in China.

    Meanwhile, the fact that Elon Musk, a senior Trump insider who has clashed with U.S. trade adviser Peter Navarro against tariffs, has major business interests in China is a particularly strong wedge that Beijing could yet exploit in an attempt to divide the Trump administration.

    Chinese and U.S. flags fly at a booth during the first China International Import Expo on Nov. 6, 2018, in Shanghai.
    Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images

    A strategic opening for China?

    While Beijing thinks it can weather Trump’s sweeping tariffs on a bilateral basis, it also believes the U.S. broadside against its own trading partners has created a generational strategic opportunity to displace American hegemony.

    Close to home, this shift could significantly reshape the geopolitical landscape of East Asia. Already on March 30 – after Trump had first raised tariffs on Beijing – China, Japan and South Korea hosted their first economic dialogue in five years and pledged to advance a trilateral free trade agreement. The move was particularly remarkable given how carefully the U.S. had worked to cultivate its Japanese and South Korean allies during the Biden administration as part of its strategy to counter Chinese regional influence. From Beijing’s perspective, Trump’s actions offer an opportunity to directly erode U.S. sway in the Indo-Pacific.

    Could China’s dragon economy slay Trump’s tariffs?
    Wang Zhao/AFP via Getty Images

    Similarly, Trump’s steep tariffs on Southeast Asian countries, which were also a major strategic regional priority during the Biden administration, may push those nations closer to China. Chinese state media announced on April 11 that President Xi Jinping will pay state visits to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia from April 14-18, aiming to deepen “all-round cooperation” with neighboring countries. Notably, all three Southeast Asian nations were targeted with now-paused reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration – 49% on Cambodian goods, 46% on Vietnamese exports and 24% on products from Malaysia.

    Farther away from China lies an even more promising strategic opportunity. Trump’s tariff strategy has already prompted China and officials from the European Union to contemplate strengthening their own previously strained trade ties, something that could weaken the transatlantic alliance that had sought to decouple from China.

    On April 8, the president of the European Commission held a call with China’s premier, during which both sides jointly condemned U.S. trade protectionism and advocated for free and open trade. Coincidentally, on April 9, the day China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%, the EU also announced its first wave of retaliatory measures – imposing a 25% tariff on selected U.S. imports worth over €20 billion – but delayed implementation following Trump’s 90-day pause.

    Now, EU and Chinese officials are holding talks over existing trade barriers and considering a full-fledged summit in China in July.

    Finally, China sees in Trump’s tariff policy a potential weakening of the international standing of the U.S. dollar. Widespread tariffs imposed on multiple countries have shaken investor confidence in the U.S. economy, contributing to a decline in the dollar’s value.

    Traditionally, the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds have been viewed as haven assets, but recent market turmoil has cast doubt on that status. At the same time, steep tariffs have raised concerns about the health of the U.S. economy and the sustainability of its debt, undermining trust in both the dollar and U.S. Treasurys.

    While Trump’s tariffs will inevitably hurt parts of the Chinese economy, Beijing appears to have far more cards to play this time around. It has the tools to inflict meaningful damage on U.S. interests – and perhaps more importantly, Trump’s all-out tariff war is providing China with a rare and unprecedented strategic opportunity.

    Linggong Kong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. In trade war with the US, China holds a lot more cards than Trump may think − in fact, it might have a winning hand – https://theconversation.com/in-trade-war-with-the-us-china-holds-a-lot-more-cards-than-trump-may-think-in-fact-it-might-have-a-winning-hand-254173

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why it matters for European security if an American no longer commands Nato troops – by a former Trident submarine commander

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew Corbett, Senior Lecturer in Defence Studies, King’s College London

    Gen Christopher Cavoli is due to come to the end of his term as Supreme Allied Commander Europe (Saceur) this summer. Since 1951, this post has been filled by American four-star officers, admirals or generals.

    But Cavoli might be the last American in the role, at least for a while. The Trump administration is considering relinquishing this important post as part of a cost-saving US Armed Forces command restructuring exercise and, potentially, as a step back from its leading role in European security since the 1950s. In parallel, the UK and German defence ministers have taken over chairing this week’s Ukraine Defence Contact Group, a gathering of defence ministers from 30 countries, which has previously been chaired by the US defense secretary.

    Cavoli said, during a hearing in the Senate this month, that it would be problematic if the US steps back from its leadership role in Nato. Previous heads of the Nato command have agreed. They’re not wrong. Removing the American Saceur position is not an internal matter like replacing senior officers serving in US posts who do not fit a particular political profile. It would have profound effects on Nato’s military capability and immediately significant and tangible repercussions for alliance deterrence strategy.

    An enemy’s perception of the military capability of Nato forces is a fundamental element of its deterrence strategy. Replacing a US Supreme Commander with a European would inject significant uncertainty into perceptions of US commitment to Nato and could critically undermine that perception of coherent military strength. It would be made to work, but Nato’s deterrence posture would be less convincing, and this is especially important given European concerns about Russian aggression in the region.

    It is not clear yet how the Trump administration’s view of Nato will evolve. Public statements advocating support for Nato contradict private views expressed by his cabinet in the notorious Signal-gate chat. Previous US president, Joe Biden, viewed allies as an unrivalled strength. Trump seems to care little about the impact of his decisions on his allies. Deleting the US Saceur post would emphasise that interpretation and weaken Nato deterrence at a critical moment in its relations with Russia.

    What’s the history?

    Trump is not the first US president to make a foreign policy shift away from Europe. President Barack Obama announced a pivot to Asia in November 2011. This focus on China as a “pacing threat” offering major challenges to the US has persisted.

    It manifests itself under Trump as a transactional demand on European allies to contribute more to Nato so the US can release resources to focus on the Pacific, potentially redeploying personnel and capabilities there. Trump has never concealed his disdain for Nato, often wondering what its benefit for the US was. Much of this rhetoric may be for his domestic audience, but it negatively affects international perceptions of Nato’s power.

    The idea of a European Saceur has also been proposed before, including by former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger in 1984. That proposal was made at a low point of the cold war and Kissinger’s rationale was political. European military leadership would force European political leaders to acknowledge their responsibilities for Nato nuclear policy.

    Cavoli questioned by US senators.

    Political control of military force is, of course, important for any democratic state. Saceur reports to the North Atlantic Council (the NAC, Nato’s highest body) which comprises ambassadors from every member country. Its chair, the secretary-general, is always a European (or Canadian), and the deputy secretary-general is always an American.

    The highest level of military command authority, the ability to organise and employ commands and forces to accomplish assigned missions, is known in the US as Combatant Command (COCOM). Most Nato states retain the COCOM equivalent but delegate the next lower level of command; Operational Command (OPCOM) to Nato commanders.

    Issues at stake

    US domestic law requires COCOM to be exercised over US forces – but only by US officers. This authority cannot be delegated. An American Supreme Commander Europe exercises operational command over all forces assigned to Nato, but a European leader in the same role could exercise only a much more restrictive level of authority over assigned US forces. There is dispensation for an exception to this to meet an attack on Nato, but not for training exercises. Unity of command is challenging enough in multi-national operations, even after 75 years of training, so this is a major obstacle.

    Another issue is that the authority to release all US nuclear weapons is retained by the US president. Accordingly, every key post in the Nato nuclear operations chain is held by a US official. A Nato request for a nuclear strike is made to the US president through Saceur. It is not clear how this would work if Saceur were no longer American. This is one of the major potential obstacles ahead of any decision to move the command to a European.

    And here’s another. In a crisis, Nato would plan to deploy 30 army divisions (of 15,000 personnel each), 30 squadrons of fighter aircraft and 30 combat warships from across the alliance within 30 days. Any Supreme Commander Europe would have to command international forces numbering hundreds of thousands of personnel. There are very few (if any) European officers who could credibly claim to be suitably experienced to replace Cavoli. No British officer has commanded even one deployed division since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

    But by the summer if Cavoli is replaced by a European, Nato needs to have most of these thorny issues resolved, or at least come up with plans on how to do so, or create significant risks for European security. For now, this is not looking simple at all.

    Andrew Corbett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why it matters for European security if an American no longer commands Nato troops – by a former Trident submarine commander – https://theconversation.com/why-it-matters-for-european-security-if-an-american-no-longer-commands-nato-troops-by-a-former-trident-submarine-commander-254122

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The largest flood in Earth’s history burst through Gibraltar and Sicily and refilled the entire Mediterranean in just a few years

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Daniel García-Castellanos, Earth scientist, Instituto de Geociencias de Barcelona (Geo3Bcn – CSIC)

    Refilled in just a few years – or months. Nasa / titoOnz / shutterstock

    A little over 5 million years ago, water from the Atlantic Ocean found a way through the present-day Strait of Gibraltar. According to this theory, oceanic water rushed faster than a speeding car down a kilometre-high slope towards the empty Mediterranean Sea, excavating a skyscraper-deep trough on its way.

    The Med was, at the time, a largely dry and salty basin, but so much water poured in that it filled up in just a couple of years – maybe even just a few months. At its peak, the flood discharged about 1,000 times the water of the modern-day Amazon river.

    At least, that’s the thesis one of us put forward in a 2009 study of an underwater canyon excavated along the Strait of Gibraltar, which he presumed to have been carved out by this massive flood. If correct, (and some scientists do dispute the theory), the so-called Zanclean megaflood would be the largest single flood recorded on Earth.

    But extraordinary claims like this require extraordinarily solid evidence. Our latest research investigates sedimentary rock from the Zanclean era that seems to record how the water surged through a gap between modern-day Sicily and mainland Africa to refill the eastern half of the Mediterranean.

    Sicily (the large island next to the ‘toe’ of Italy) still forms part of a divide between the Mediterranean’s darker basins, shaded in deeper blue.
    GEBCO / National Oceanographic Centre, UK, CC BY-NC-SA

    How scientists tracked down the megaflood

    Our finding is the latest twist in a story that began in the late 19th century. That’s when geologists studying salt-rich rock outcrops around the Mediterranean became increasingly aware that something unusual had happened between roughly 5 and 6 million years ago, well before the glaciations of recent ice ages: the sea had dried up. They named that age “Messinian” and the drying up eventually became known as the Messinian salinity crisis.

    In the 1970s, scientists for the first time drilled deep below the Mediterranean into sedimentary rocks from the Messinian age. They made three surprising discoveries. First, they found a massive layer of salt – kilometres thick – below much of the seafloor. This confirmed that a vast environmental change had happened about 6 million years ago, just when tectonic plates shifted and the sea became largely isolated from the Atlantic Ocean.

    Second, right above this salt layer, they found sediment with fossils from shallow, low-salt lakes. This suggested that the Mediterranean Sea dropped to more than a kilometre below today’s level, and as most of the water evaporated, salt was left behind. A series of lakes would have remained in the lowest parts of the basin, refreshed and kept relatively salt-free by streams. This interpretation was also supported by seismic surveys of the seabed which revealed rivers once cut through a dry landscape.

    And third, the rocky layers above the salt abruptly shifted back to more typical deep sea sediment. (We now know that less than 11% of Mediterranean marine species survived the crisis, showing just how big and lasting the impact was on life in the sea). The term Zanclean Flood was coined in the 1970s to refer to the end of the crisis, without scientists really knowing what it consisted of or the timescale taken to refill the dry Mediterranean basin.

    Events proposed to have occurred in the Mediterranean between 6 and 5.3 million years ago.

    A cataclysmic refill

    The next breakthrough came in 2009, when geophysical data for the planned Africa-Europe tunnel through Gibraltar suggested that a huge underwater trench between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea must have been created by a sudden and cataclysmic flood.

    Our latest research backs up this hypothesis. As part of a team led by Maltese seabed scientist Aaron Micallef, we explored the region where the flood water filling the western basin of the Mediterranean should have run into a ridge of higher land connecting modern-day Africa and Italy, known as the Sicily Sill. Was there any evidence, we wondered, of a second megaflood as the eastern Mediterranean filled up?

    Piecing together the puzzle

    Giovanni Barreca, one of our co-authors on the recent paper, grew up in southern Sicily. He long ago realised that the low hills near the coast are an extension of the Sicily Sill over which the megaflood must have progressed from west to east. The area, he thought, might contain clues.

    Our team visited this part of Sicily and noticed that the hills were indeed unusual. Their aligned and streamlined shapes separated by deeply eroded depressions are very similar to streamlined hills in Washington state in the US. Those Washington hills were carved out by a megaflood at the end of the last Ice Age when the vast Lake Missoula dammed up behind a glacier and emptied catastrophically.

    If those hills and depressions in Sicily were also shaped by a huge flood, then rock debris eroded from the base of the depressions should be found dumped on top of the hills, more than 5 million years later.

    Sure enough, we did find jumbled and contorted rock debris up to boulder size along the crest of the hills. They were the same types of rock found within the depressions as well as further inland.

    Remnants of a boulder dumped 5 million years ago on a hilltop near the town of Rosolini, Sicily.
    Paul Carling

    To double check our work, we developed a computer simulation (or “model”) of how flood waters might have crossed one part of the Sicily Sill. It showed that the flood flow would indeed mimic the direction of the streamlined hills.

    In fact, the model showed that the hills would have been carved out by water 40 metres or more deep, travelling at 115 kilometres per hour (71mph). In the one area we modelled, 13 million cubic metres of water per second would have flooded into the eastern Mediterranean basin (for reference: the Amazon today is about 200,000 cubic metres per second). Remarkably, this is still only a fraction of the water that first flowed through Gibraltar and then into the eastern Mediterranean basin near Sicily.

    Daniel García-Castellanos does research on public European and Spanish funding.

    Paul Carling does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The largest flood in Earth’s history burst through Gibraltar and Sicily and refilled the entire Mediterranean in just a few years – https://theconversation.com/the-largest-flood-in-earths-history-burst-through-gibraltar-and-sicily-and-refilled-the-entire-mediterranean-in-just-a-few-years-249242

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: White Lotus: ‘the show’s depiction of sibling sexual behaviour is incredibly harmful’ – expert opinion

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sophie King-Hill, Associate Professor at the Health Services Management Centre, University of Birmingham

    This article contains spoilers for season three of The White Lotus

    The White Lotus is a show where a lot of sex happens and many taboos are explored. For instance, in episode seven the impact on one character of watching his parents having sex as a child and how that affected his sexuality is talked about. Given all of this, it might seem like no big deal to feature an incest storyline, which this series did. But, as researchers of sibling sexual behaviour-abuse, we were particularly perturbed by the show’s take on this issue.

    In episode five, we see holidaying brothers Lochlan and Saxon Ratliff kiss after a night of partying with drugs and alcohol. This quickly escalates in the next episode where Saxon learns through flashbacks and conversations that Lochlan “jerked [him] off.”

    Child sexual abuse, harmful sexual behaviour among children and young people and intra-familial sexual abuse are not new topics. It’s only recently, however, that sibling sexual behaviour-abuse has garnered similar levels of attention.

    While this topic does come under the definition of intra-familial sexual abuse, conversations about this have tended to focus on intergenerational cases. For instance, parent or step-parent and child.

    However, sibling sexual behaviour-abuse is thought to be one of the most prolific forms of intrafamilial sexual abuse. Research estimates that it may be five times more prevalent than parent-child sexual abuse, yet is rarely spoken about due to the taboos that exist around children and sex – but also the shame that many families feel when experiencing this issue.

    Mainstream explorations on shows such as White Lotus could be incredibly helpful in spreading awareness about sibling sexual behaviour-abuse. As experts in sexual behaviours and sexual abuse, we believe the show’s handling of an incredibly complex and traumatic issue is insensitive and sensational. Far from spreading awareness, this storyline is simply shocking and inaccurate. We would argue that it actively harms the important research that is only just beginning in helping those who experience this sort of abuse and those who work with them.

    Take the way Saxon finds out. It’s the next morning. He had blacked out the night before and fragments of what happened are slowly coming back to him. He suspects something bad happened but confirmation is delivered in a matter-of-fact way by the two young women who were with him that night.

    Rather than expressing horror or concern, both young women are very calm about what happened, letting him know his brother “jerked him off”. They then laugh and are dismissive of Saxon’s horror. In this way, the abuse is normalised as one of them says: “Everyone has their thing – it’s fine.” This would seem to imply that sexual behaviour between siblings is a sexual preference rather than a traumatic situation that needs specific support and intervention.

    While Saxon and Lochlan express disgust when they remember what has happened, this is not portrayed in any great depth. Instead, it is framed in a way that is not too dissimilar to how someone may respond to a consensual sexual encounter they may regret after a night out – rather than a serious sexual experience with a sibling.

    In our research, we found a key reason why people don’t report instances is that the behaviour may sit within a context of family dysfunction, so it is difficult for those victims to recognise it. This is why early developmentally appropriate relationships and sex education is important.

    Serious family dysfunction is evident within the programme with the mother showing disconnection and the father exhibiting signs of depression, suicide ideation and fantasies of killing members of his family. The children also have unusual relationships with each other where boundaries of sexuality are blurred.

    In episode one, Saxon states: “Brother and sisters don’t sleep together when they have fully formed genitals.” Later, he calls his sister “pretty hot” and muses about her virginity. He also asks Lochlan, “What kind of porn do you like?” and says, “How am I going to jerk off with you in here all week?” before walking naked to the bathroom to masturbate.

    The deep shame that is strongly linked to families that experience such abuse is also was not explored in any depth. After the initial act and flashbacks the sibling sexual behaviour is not mentioned in any great depth again.

    The only real acknowledgement we get is in the final episode when Saxon rebuffs Lochlan’s wishes to spend time together. Noticing Saxon is not OK, Lochlan says: “All you care about is getting off and I saw you lying there and I thought you looked a little left out … and you know, I’m a pleaser. I just want to give everyone what they want and I’m in a family full of narcissists.”

    This complicated family dynamic is not explored and the abusive behaviour isn’t even properly condemned. “Dude, let’s just drop this forever, please,” Saxon simply retorts – and the series does, as the incident is swept away as a small sub-plot, and lost in rising tide of drama in the rest of the finale.

    TV shows can be incredibly powerful tools in spreading awareness and increasing public knowledge about how to spot, respond to and prevent issues such as sibling sexual behaviour-abuse. It could have explored the nature of the behaviour, the links to family factors and the interventions that are needed to support disclosures and recovery from this type of sexual abuse and behaviour-based family issue.

    The White Lotus, however, did not take this opportunity. Instead we are left guessing, as the Ratliffs sail back to their lives, how this complex and traumatic incident in the brothers’ lives came to pass and how it will affect them in the future.

    Looking for something good to watch? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Sophie King-Hill receives funding from ESRC.

    Kieran McCartan receives funding from the European Union (Horizon 2020) and the Bristol City Council.

    – ref. White Lotus: ‘the show’s depiction of sibling sexual behaviour is incredibly harmful’ – expert opinion – https://theconversation.com/white-lotus-the-shows-depiction-of-sibling-sexual-behaviour-is-incredibly-harmful-expert-opinion-253972

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why it matters for European security if an American no longer commands Nato troops – by a former Trident sub commander

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew Corbett, Senior Lecturer in Defence Studies, King’s College London

    Gen Christopher Cavoli is due to come to the end of his term as Supreme Allied Commander Europe (Saceur) this summer. Since 1951, this post has been filled by American four-star officers, admirals or generals.

    But Cavoli might be the last American in the role, at least for a while. The Trump administration is considering relinquishing this important post as part of a cost-saving US Armed Forces command restructuring exercise and, potentially, as a step back from its leading role in European security since the 1950s. In parallel, the UK and German defence ministers have taken over chairing this week’s Ukraine Defence Contact Group, a gathering of defence ministers from 30 countries, which has previously been chaired by the US defense secretary.

    Cavoli said, during a hearing in the Senate this month, that it would be problematic if the US steps back from its leadership role in Nato. Previous heads of the Nato command have agreed. They’re not wrong. Removing the American Saceur position is not an internal matter like replacing senior officers serving in US posts who do not fit a particular political profile. It would have profound effects on Nato’s military capability and immediately significant and tangible repercussions for alliance deterrence strategy.

    An enemy’s perception of the military capability of Nato forces is a fundamental element of its deterrence strategy. Replacing a US Supreme Commander with a European would inject significant uncertainty into perceptions of US commitment to Nato and could critically undermine that perception of coherent military strength. It would be made to work, but Nato’s deterrence posture would be less convincing, and this is especially important given European concerns about Russian aggression in the region.

    It is not clear yet how the Trump administration’s view of Nato will evolve. Public statements advocating support for Nato contradict private views expressed by his cabinet in the notorious Signal-gate chat. Previous US president, Joe Biden, viewed allies as an unrivalled strength. Trump seems to care little about the impact of his decisions on his allies. Deleting the US Saceur post would emphasise that interpretation and weaken Nato deterrence at a critical moment in its relations with Russia.

    What’s the history?

    Trump is not the first US president to make a foreign policy shift away from Europe. President Barack Obama announced a pivot to Asia in November 2011. This focus on China as a “pacing threat” offering major challenges to the US has persisted.

    It manifests itself under Trump as a transactional demand on European allies to contribute more to Nato so the US can release resources to focus on the Pacific, potentially redeploying personnel and capabilities there. Trump has never concealed his disdain for Nato, often wondering what its benefit for the US was. Much of this rhetoric may be for his domestic audience, but it negatively affects international perceptions of Nato’s power.

    The idea of a European Saceur has also been proposed before, including by former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger in 1984. That proposal was made at a low point of the cold war and Kissinger’s rationale was political. European military leadership would force European political leaders to acknowledge their responsibilities for Nato nuclear policy.

    Cavoli questioned by US senators.

    Political control of military force is, of course, important for any democratic state. Saceur reports to the North Atlantic Council (the NAC, Nato’s highest body) which comprises ambassadors from every member country. Its chair, the secretary-general, is always a European (or Canadian), and the deputy secretary-general is always an American.

    The highest level of military command authority, the ability to organise and employ commands and forces to accomplish assigned missions, is known in the US as Combatant Command (COCOM). Most Nato states retain the COCOM equivalent but delegate the next lower level of command; Operational Command (OPCOM) to Nato commanders.

    Issues at stake

    US domestic law requires COCOM to be exercised over US forces – but only by US officers. This authority cannot be delegated. An American Supreme Commander Europe exercises operational command over all forces assigned to Nato, but a European leader in the same role could exercise only a much more restrictive level of authority over assigned US forces. There is dispensation for an exception to this to meet an attack on Nato, but not for training exercises. Unity of command is challenging enough in multi-national operations, even after 75 years of training, so this is a major obstacle.

    Another issue is that the authority to release all US nuclear weapons is retained by the US president. Accordingly, every key post in the Nato nuclear operations chain is held by a US official. A Nato request for a nuclear strike is made to the US president through Saceur. It is not clear how this would work if Saceur were no longer American. This is one of the major potential obstacles ahead of any decision to move the command to a European.

    And here’s another. In a crisis, Nato would plan to deploy 30 army divisions (of 15,000 personnel each), 30 squadrons of fighter aircraft and 30 combat warships from across the alliance within 30 days. Any Supreme Commander Europe would have to command international forces numbering hundreds of thousands of personnel. There are very few (if any) European officers who could credibly claim to be suitably experienced to replace Cavoli. No British officer has commanded even one deployed division since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

    But by the summer if Cavoli is replaced by a European, Nato needs to have most of these thorny issues resolved, or at least come up with plans on how to do so, or create significant risks for European security. For now, this is not looking simple at all.

    Andrew Corbett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why it matters for European security if an American no longer commands Nato troops – by a former Trident sub commander – https://theconversation.com/why-it-matters-for-european-security-if-an-american-no-longer-commands-nato-troops-by-a-former-trident-sub-commander-254122

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: From brain Bluetooth to ‘full RoboCop’: where chip implants will be heading soon

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amin Al-Habaibeh, Professor of Intelligent Engineering Systems, Nottingham Trent University

    In the 1987 classic film RoboCop, the deceased Detroit cop Alex Murphy is reborn as a cyborg. He has a robotic body and a full brain-computer interface that allows him to control his movements with his mind. He can access online information such as suspects’ faces, uses artificial intelligence (AI) to help detect threats, and his human memories have been integrated with those from a machine.

    It is remarkable to think that the movie’s key mechanical robotic technologies have almost now been accomplished by the likes of Boston Dynamics’ running, jumping Atlas and Kawasaki’s new four-legged Corleo. Similarly we are seeing robotic exoskeletons that enable paralysed patients to do things like walking and climbing stairs by responding to their gestures.

    Developers have lagged behind when it comes to building an interface in which the brain’s electrical pulses can communicate with an external device. This too is changing, however.

    In the latest breakthrough, a research team based at the University of California has unveiled a brain implant that enabled a woman with paralysis to livestream her thoughts via AI into a synthetic voice with just a three-second delay.

    The interface fr-OG.
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    The concept of an interface between neurons and machines goes back much further than RoboCop. In the 18th century, an Italian physician named Luigi Galvani discovered that when electricity is passed through certain nerves in a frog’s leg, it would twitch. This paved the way for the whole study of electrophysiology, which looks at how electrical signals affect organisms.

    The initial modern research on brain-computer interfaces started in the late 1960s, with the American neuroscientist Eberhard Fetz hooking up monkeys’ brains to electrodes and showing that they could move a meter needle. Yet if this demonstrated some exciting potential, the human brain proved too complex for this field to advance quickly.

    The brain is continually thinking, learning, memorising, recognising patterns and decoding sensory signals – not to mention coordinating and moving our bodies. It runs on about 86 billion neurons with trillions of connections which process, adapt and evolve continuously in what is called neuroplasticity. In other words, there’s a great deal to figure out.

    A tough nut to crack.
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    Much of the recent progress has been based on advances in our ability to map the brain, identifying the various regions and their activities. A range of technologies can produce insightful images of the brain (including functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and positron emission tomography (PET)), while others monitor certain kinds of activity (including electroencephalography (EEG) and the more invasive electrocortigraphy (ECoG)).

    These techniques have helped researchers to build some incredible devices, including wheelchairs and prosthetics that can be controlled by the mind.

    But whereas these are typically controlled with an external interface like an EEG headset, chip implants are very much the new frontier. They have been enabled by advances in AI chips and micro electrodes, as well as the deep learning neural networks that power today’s AI technology. This allows for faster data analysis and pattern recognition, which together with the more precise brain signals that can be acquired using implants, have made it possible to create applications that run virtually in real time.

    For instance, the new University of California implant relies on ECoG, a technique developed in the early 2000s that captures patterns directly from a thin sheet of electrodes placed directly on the cortical surface of someone’s brain.

    In their case, the complex patterns picked up by the implant of 253 high-density electrodes are processed using deep learning to produce a matrix of data from which it’s possible to decode whatever words the user is thinking. This improves on previous models that could only create synthetic speech after the user had finished a sentence.

    Elon Musk’s Neuralink has been able to get patients to control a computer cursor using similar techniques. However, it’s also worth emphasising that deep learning neural networks are enabling more sophisticated devices that rely on other forms of brain monitoring.

    Our research team at Nottingham Trent University has developed an affordable brainwave reader using off-the-shelf parts that enables patients who are suffering from conditions like completely locked-in syndrome (CLIS) or motor neurone disease (MND) to be able to answer “yes” or “no” to questions. There’s also the potential to control a computer mouse using the same technology.

    The future

    The progress in AI, chip fabrication and biomedical tech that enabled these developments is expected to continue in the coming years, which should mean that brain-computer interfaces keep improving.

    In the next ten years, we can expect more technologies that provide disabled people with independence by helping them to move and communicate more easily. This entails improved versions of the technologies that are already emerging, including exoskeletons, mind-controlled prosthetics and implants that move from controlling cursors to fully controlling computers or other machines. In all cases, it will be a question of balancing our increasing ability to interpret high-quality brain data with invasiveness, safety and costs.

    It is still more in the medium to long term that I would expect to see many of the capabilities of a RoboCop, including planted memories and built-in trained skills supported with internet connectivity. We can also expect to see high-speed communication between people via “brain Bluetooth”.

    It should be similarly possible to create a Six Million Dollar Man, with enhanced vision, hearing and strength, by implanting the right sensors and linking the right components to convert neuron signals into action (actuators). No doubt applications will also emerge as our understanding of brain functionality increases that haven’t been thought of yet.

    Clearly, it will soon become impossible to keep deferring ethical considerations. Could our brains be hacked, and memories be planted or deleted? Could our emotions be controlled? Will the day come where we need to update our brain software and press restart?

    With every step forward, questions like these become ever more pressing. The major technological obstacles have essentially been cleared out of the way. It’s time to start thinking about to what extent we want to integrate these technologies into society, the sooner the better.

    Amin Al-Habaibeh receives funding Innovate UK, The British Council, The Royal academy of Engineering, EPSRC, AHRC, and the European Commission.

    – ref. From brain Bluetooth to ‘full RoboCop’: where chip implants will be heading soon – https://theconversation.com/from-brain-bluetooth-to-full-robocop-where-chip-implants-will-be-heading-soon-254376

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: To eradicate polio once and for all, we need a new vaccine – that’s what we’re working on

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lee Sherry, Postdoctoral Research Associate, School of Infection and Immunity, University of Glasgow

    Gorodenkoff/Shutterstock

    Aside from recent outbreaks of polio in war-torn regions of the world, the deadly virus is close to being eradicated, thanks to vaccines.

    All vaccines work by training our immune systems to recognise a harmless piece of a virus or bacteria so that when the real thing is encountered later, the immune system is prepared to defeat it.

    There are two types of polio vaccine in use. One is the inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), and the other the live-attenuated oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV).

    The IPV is made by “killing” large quantities of poliovirus with a chemical called formalin, making it unable to replicate. The immune system is then “trained” to recognise the poliovirus – which is thankfully rendered safe by formalin.

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    The OPV vaccine contains a weakened (or “attenuated”) version of the virus. These changes in the virus’s genetic code stop it from causing disease. However, as the OPV vaccine is still capable of replicating, it can revert to a form that can cause disease, with the potential to cause paralysis in unvaccinated people.

    Because of these risks, scientists are now looking for safer ways to create vaccines – methods that don’t require growing large amounts of the live virus in high-security labs, as is done for IPV.

    Our research team has taken an important step towards producing a safer and more affordable polio vaccine. This new vaccine candidate uses virus-like particles (VLPs). These particles mimic the outer protein shell of poliovirus, but are empty inside. This means there is no risk of infection, but the VLP is still recognised by the immune system, which then protects against the disease.

    This vaccine candidate uses technology that’s already being used in hepatitis B and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines. Thanks to VLPs, since 2008, there have been no cervical cancer cases in women in Scotland who were fully vaccinated against HPV. Over the past ten years, our research group has worked to apply this successful technology in the fight to eradicate polio.

    Vaccine success

    Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, polio was a major global childhood health concern. However, the development of IPV (licensed in 1955) and of OPV (licensed in 1963), almost eliminated polio-derived paralysis. Due to the success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, introduced in 1988, most cases of paralytic polio are now caused by the vaccine.

    Despite the success of these vaccines, they both have safety concerns that could threaten to compromise eradication of the disease.

    IPV, for instance, is expensive to make because it needs stringent safety measures to prevent the accidental release of live poliovirus and so is mostly used in wealthy countries. OPV is five times cheaper than IPV, and due to its lower cost and ease of use, it is used almost exclusively in developing countries.

    OPV has been instrumental in the near eradication of “wild polioviruses” (the naturally occurring form) around the world. But in areas where vaccination rates are low and enough people are susceptible to infection, the weakened virus (OPV) can replicate.

    Unfortunately, each round of replication increases the potential for the virus to revert to a form of polio that causes illness and paralysis. This is already evident in new vaccine-derived outbreaks across several countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East, which now accounts for most paralytic polio cases worldwide. So, once all remaining strains of wild poliovirus have been successfully eradicated, OPV use will have to stop.

    Safer vaccine

    The next generation of polio vaccinations is likely to be produced in yeast or insect cells. Our research shows that VLPs produced in both yeast and insect cells can perform equally or better than the current IPV.

    These non-infectious VLPs are also easier to produce than IPVs. They would not need to be handled under such stringent laboratory conditions as IPVs, and they are more temperature stable, thanks to genetic alteration of the outer shell. The new vaccines, then, will be less expensive to produce than IPVs, helping to improve fair and equal access to vaccination – ensuring that once polio is eradicated, it will stay eradicated.

    As we move closer to wiping out polio worldwide, these next-generation vaccines could be the final tool we need – safe, affordable and accessible to all.

    Lee Sherry worked as a post-doc on a WHO-funded research grant for the production of poliovirus virus-like particles

    Nicola Stonehouse is a member of the WHO VLP vaccine Consortium and receives funding from The World Health Organisation – Generation of virus-free polio vaccine.

    – ref. To eradicate polio once and for all, we need a new vaccine – that’s what we’re working on – https://theconversation.com/to-eradicate-polio-once-and-for-all-we-need-a-new-vaccine-thats-what-were-working-on-252086

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Good Night, and Good Luck: why AP’s battle for press freedom echoes the theme of George Clooney’s new play

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Colleen Murrell, Chair of the Editorial Board, and Full Professor in Journalism, Dublin City University

    George Clooney’s role as a veteran TV reporter in the play Good Night, and Good Luck has received general acclaim after the play opened on Broadway last week. A New York Times review proclaimed that it “makes Edward Murrow a saint of sane journalism for a world that still needs one”.

    This theatre production is an adaptation of Clooney and Grant Heslov’s 2005 film of the same name, and it takes the audience back to the 1950s when CBS News journalist Edward Murrow took on populist and high-profile senator, Joseph McCarthy.

    McCarthy had become an influential and feared figure after holding a series of public hearings where people were charged, often on very little evidence, of being communists and infiltrating government departments.

    Many people lost their jobs, and journalists and academics were often targeted. Murrow’s programmes showcased spurious cases of overreach, which earned him McCarthy’s wrath. This courageous TV journalism exposed McCarthy’s methods and helped bring about the senator’s eventual downfall.

    It is impossible not to see the parallels with the current parlous state of press freedom in the US. A week before the play opened, Clooney was interviewed on CBS News and said: “When the other three estates fail, when the judiciary and the executive and the legislative branches fail us, the fourth estate has to succeed.”

    And this feels highly significant as earlier this week a federal judge issued an injunction against a decision by Donald Trump’s government which effectively restricted a news organisation’s ability to operate. Judge Trevor McFadden, a Trump appointee, said that a news organisation (Associated Press) could not be punished for its editorial decisions.

    He declared: “Under the First Amendment, if the Government opens its doors to some journalists – be it the Oval Office, the East Room or elsewhere – it cannot then shut those doors to other journalists because of their viewpoints.” However, the government has already announced it is appealing McFadden’s ruling.

    Ed Murrow’s famous newscast on Joseph McCarthy.

    AP has been barred from the Oval Office and the presidential aircraft Air Force One since February 11, after it said it would continue to use the geographical locator the “Gulf of Mexico” rather than accede to Trump’s executive order that it be renamed the “Gulf of America”. But this was always about more than the Gulf of Mexico, it was about the right for media organisations to choose their own words and content.

    AP then attempted to overturn the exclusion order through an injunction. McFadden initially held off granting this injunction, and a further hearing on March 27 resulted in lengthy testimony from AP staff about the financial and editorial costs caused by its lack of access to the White House.

    Some newspaper coverage is hailing the granting of this injunction as a major victory for media freedom, with the Guardian, in words that echo Edward Murrow, proposing that “standing up for one’s principles may not be just a gesture made in vain”.

    And yet this remains just a temporary injunction and the full court case in which AP is suing three senior members of the White House: press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, chief of staff Susie Wiles and deputy chief of staff Taylor Budowich has yet to play out.

    Judge McFadden even sounded a note of caution regarding his ruling: “It does not bestow special treatment upon the AP. Indeed the AP is not necessarily entitled to the ‘first in line every time’ permanent press pool access it enjoyed under the White House Correspondents’ Association. But it cannot be treated worse than its peer wire services either.”

    Rising challenge for journalism

    Pressures on journalists have definitely ramped up in the past few months. During the hearing on March 27, AP’s White House correspondent Zeke Miller claimed that he had noticed a new “softening of tone and tenor” of the questions posed to the president and was surprised by the increase in off-topic questions at the expense of topical “news of the day” questions.

    George Clooney at the launch of the new Broadway play Good Night, and Good Luck.

    There certainly appears to be an increased number of what Australians call “Dorothy Dixer” questions, where friendly politicians or journalists ask soft questions of the government or questions designed to distract from the difficult news of the day.

    And it is clear that journalists who are considered friendly are getting priority treatment. When Brian Glenn, chief White House correspondent for the cable network Real America’s Voice, was chosen to ask a question of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky in the now-infamous White House conference on February 28, he served up a question about why the Ukrainian leader was not wearing a suit.

    A query that just happened to be very helpful to the tone that Trump wanted to create in that meeting. A seasoned AP journalist would never have asked such a bizarre and unnecessary question.

    Questions about press freedom will be tackled next at a forum organised by the Columbia Journalism School and the New York Times later this month. The forum, The Fight for Global Press Freedom, proposes that “press freedom stands at a historic crossroads”.

    Holding this forum shows courage in the wake of Columbia University potentially losing federal funding to the tune of US$400 million dollars (£305 milllion). Federal government administrators claim this was in response to pro-Palestinian protests and “the school’s failure to protect Jewish students from discrimination”. Negotiations between the university and funders are ongoing.

    As the world’s trade negotiators, university administrators and journalists decide whether or not to hold the line and stand up to a bullying president, perhaps the words of Edward Murrow might hold the key. In 1954 McCarthy attacked Murrow, accusing him incorrectly of communist sympathies.

    In his reply, Murrow argued that in so doing McCarthy had “proved again that anyone who exposes him, anyone who does not share his historical disregard for decency and human dignity and the rights guaranteed by the constitution must be either a communist or a fellow traveller”.

    AP’s fight back against its White House ban and its consequent chilling effect on media freedom could be the start of a new era of standing up to Trump, and damn the consequences. Let’s hope it’s not just the dying refrain of a once powerful not-for-profit legacy media organisation.

    Colleen Murrell received funding from Irish regulator Coimisiún na Meán (2021-4) for research for the annual Reuters Digital News Report Ireland.

    – ref. Good Night, and Good Luck: why AP’s battle for press freedom echoes the theme of George Clooney’s new play – https://theconversation.com/good-night-and-good-luck-why-aps-battle-for-press-freedom-echoes-the-theme-of-george-clooneys-new-play-254136

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Jitters in the US bond market look like the main reason Trump hit pause on higher tariffs

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alex Dryden, PhD Student in Economics, Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London

    Bond markets don’t often make front-page news but the recent sharp sell-off in US Treasuries appears to have been enough to prompt US president Donald Trump to pause his plans for new tariffs.

    Traditionally, US Treasuries are seen as one of the world’s safest assets for investors. The United States government has long been regarded as a reliable and responsible borrower. That reputation has allowed the US to borrow at low costs for decades.

    But the turbulence triggered by Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcement caused wild swings in the US government’s borrowing costs. While some form of trade restrictions were anticipated, the scale and scope of the measures surprised markets and rattled bond investors.

    The yield on the 30-year US Treasury, which moves inversely to the bond’s price, rose 60 basis points, to above 5%, following the tariff announcement. Rising yields for governments effectively mean they pay more interest on their debt. For the US, this was one of the largest moves within a single week since 1981, when the Federal Reserve (the Fed) implemented sharp interest rate hikes to combat inflation.

    The volatility of bond markets and nervousness among investors seems to have been the catalyst for encouraging Trump to pause the higher tariffs for 90 days. Trump himself remarked that bond markets had become “a little bit yippy”.

    So what exactly spooked them? Several forces seem to have combined to drive this sudden shift in sentiment.

    First, bond prices are highly sensitive to inflation expectations. The introduction of broad-based tariffs was widely seen as inflationary. Both the tariffs and the threat of retaliatory measures from trading partners risked pushing up prices on everything from groceries to electronics.

    The possibility of rising inflation pushed bond prices down, because inflation makes the fixed-interest payments from bonds less valuable over time.

    Second, like any financial asset, bond prices are sensitive to investor demand. There are growing concerns that US Treasuries could face a “buyers’ strike” – a scenario where escalating trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty make investors wary of holding American debt.

    Instead, many are turning to politically neutral safe havens like gold and other precious metals. There are also signs that foreign buyers, particularly from Asia and the Middle East, are pulling back from US debt, a shift that could further weaken demand and raise government borrowing costs even more.

    Finally, the actions (or perhaps more accurately, the inaction) of the Fed also helped to drag bond prices lower. During previous bouts of extreme market volatility, like in March 2020 at the onset of COVID lockdowns in the US, the Fed stepped in with a raft of measures designed to calm markets.

    But this time, with inflation still running above the Fed’s 2% target, its options were far more limited. Any attempt to support bond markets risked fuelling inflation. The Fed’s silence this time around offered little reassurance to bond investors, who have come to expect soothing interventions during times of stress.

    The nerves are here to stay

    Bond market volatility is unlikely to be a one-off event. Instead, it may be a sign of deeper, more persistent worry among investors over the US fiscal outlook.

    For years, the US has been able to borrow cheaply, even as its national debt climbed, because investors saw Treasuries as safe, reliable and backed by a strong and stable economy. Demand was so steady that interest rates stayed low, allowing the government to finance large deficits without much fuss.

    But erratic policy and large fiscal giveaways such as unfunded tax cuts and politically motivated spending increases like massive increases to military spending, mean that confidence is starting to fray. US federal debt currently stands at 100% of GDP and experts expect that figure to rise to 118% over the next decade. This is greater than at any point in the nation’s history.

    What’s more, these forecasts do not yet reflect the budget framework passed by the Senate in early April, which aims at extending and expanding tax cuts introduced in 2017. Senate estimates suggest that these measures will cost an additional US$1.5 trillion (£1.15 trillion) over the next decade.

    However, the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), projects that the plan could increase the national debt by US$5.8 trillion over the same period.

    Rapidly rising debt levels, combined with higher borrowing costs, are placing increasing pressure on the government’s budget. According to CRFB figures, interest payments have nearly tripled since 2020, rising from US$345 billion to US$949 billion in the 2024 fiscal year.

    It’s this kind of fiscal strain, and the bond market’s reaction to it, that is widely believed to have made Trump jittery enough to pause the latest round of tariffs.

    Debt servicing costs now absorb around 14% of the federal budget, making it the second-largest expense after social security payments. These costs exceed national defence and Medicaid spending.

    The US has long benefited from being able to borrow at a low interest rate, thanks to strong demand for its bonds. However, growing economic uncertainty and a worsening fiscal position mean that bond markets are likely to be more volatile and less forgiving going forward than they have been in the past.

    If Trump remains wedded to tariffs as a key policy tool, this episode has given a clear sense of how bond markets might respond. The pursuit of policies that unsettle inflation expectations or deepen fiscal concerns will likely come at a high price for reckless governments.

    Alex Dryden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Jitters in the US bond market look like the main reason Trump hit pause on higher tariffs – https://theconversation.com/jitters-in-the-us-bond-market-look-like-the-main-reason-trump-hit-pause-on-higher-tariffs-254410

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Brains of people with schizophrenia may age faster – how our research adds to the evidence

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alexander F Santillo, Associate Professor of Psychiatry, Consultant Psychiatrist, Lund University

    Gorodenkoff/Shutterstock

    What causes schizophrenia? This severe mental illness, which affects over 20 million people worldwide and is characterised by recurrent hallucinations and delusions, often begins to emerge in the period from adolescence to early adulthood. It’s a complex disorder that affects almost every area of life.

    Current theories about why schizophrenia develops suggest it may be linked to changes in brain development during this critical period of emerging adulthood. Schizophrenia is also thought to be similar to conditions such as dyslexia, autism and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), which are neurodevelopmental but usually manifest in childhood.

    However, our research suggests that accelerated brain ageing could be another potential driver in the development of schizophrenia – and this can be measured using a simple blood test.

    Our study is unique because we measured proteins in blood derived directly from brain neurons – the brain’s nerve cells – in people suffering from schizophrenia. This protein, called neurofilament light protein (NfL), consists of long, thread-like structures that help maintain the size and shape of nerve cells.

    NfL is released into the blood and cerebrospinal fluid when brain neurons are damaged or undergo neurodegeneration. Its release when these cells are damaged makes it a useful biomarker for diagnosing and monitoring neurodegenerative diseases and neurological damage. Measuring the levels of NfL can also provide insight into the extent of neuronal injury.

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    Neuronal injury is damage or harm to neurons, the specialised cells in the nervous system essential for communication in the brain, spinal cord and peripheral nervous system. When neurons are injured, their ability to function properly is impaired, which can result in a range of neurological symptoms depending on the severity and location of the damage.

    Raised levels of NfL have been associated with a range of neurological conditions including Alzheimer’s disease, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson’s disease and frontotemporal dementia. But NfL levels also normally increase with age as these proteins lose the ability to repair themselves as effectively. This is due to a combination of factors including gradual wear-and-tear on neurons over time.

    While reductions in the brain’s grey matter, white matter and connectivity are all part of normal, healthy ageing, these changes are usually gradual and not disabling. Grey matter contains most of the brain’s neurons and is responsible for processing information, memory, decision-making, muscle control, and seeing and hearing. White matter is the long fibres that connect different brain regions, allowing them to communicate quickly and efficiently.

    Noticeable symptoms of normal, healthy brain ageing might include a bit more forgetfulness, slower reaction time, and difficulty juggling multiple tasks. Such changes are very different from the patterns seen in illnesses like schizophrenia where, our study shows, the decline is faster and more severe, indicating an older brain age than would be expected from the patient’s chronological age.

    Our research found that, in people with schizophrenia, NfL levels appeared to increase more quickly with age, compared with the rate of increase in healthy people, indicating an acceleration of the brain ageing process.

    We also studied samples from people suffering from bipolar disorder, which did not show the same accelerated increase. Data from other methods, such as calculating “brain age” from MRI scans, also points to accelerated brain ageing in people with schizophrenia.

    Lifestyle factors

    For people suffering from schizophrenia, accelerated ageing of the body is already a serious problem, as Christos Pantelis, a Melbourne psychiatrist and senior author of our study, explains:

    An important problem is that people with chronic schizophrenia are often exposed to an unhealthy lifestyle overall. They can experience isolation, unemployment, lack of physical activities, smoking – and many resort to illicit drug use that can make their condition worse.

    Currently, people diagnosed with schizophrenia have a life expectancy 20-30 years shorter than the average. This is mainly due to earlier development of common age-related diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular disease. Around half of people with schizophrenia have at least one other chronic medical condition, such as obesity, respiratory conditions, chronic pain and substance-use disorders.

    People with schizophrenia have a higher risk of substance-use disorders due to a combination of biological, psychological and environmental factors. These include self-medication for distressing symptoms, impaired cognitive function, social isolation, and difficulties with treatment adherence.

    While lifestyle is a factor in the accelerated ageing of the body for those living with schizophrenia, our study could prove another important step in understanding – and in time, treating – this distressing disease.

    Alexander F Santillo primarily receives funding from the Swedish federal government under the ALF agreement.

    Cassandra Wannan receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council.

    Dhamidhu Eratne receives funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

    – ref. Brains of people with schizophrenia may age faster – how our research adds to the evidence – https://theconversation.com/brains-of-people-with-schizophrenia-may-age-faster-how-our-research-adds-to-the-evidence-239979

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –