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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Being married linked to increased risk of dementia – new study

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Avinash Chandra, Postdoctoral Researcher, Neurology, Queen Mary University of London

    Would you believe me if I told you that staying single or ending your marriage could lower your odds of getting dementia? A new study led by researchers at Florida State University somewhat shockingly suggests that unmarried people are less likely to develop dementia.

    If you think you’ve heard the opposite, you are correct. A 2019 study from America found that unmarried people had “significantly higher odds of developing dementia over the study period than their married counterparts”.

    Indeed, married people are generally thought to have better health. Studies have shown that they are at reduced risk of having heart disease and stroke and they tend to live longer. So why did the new study come up with this surprising finding? Let’s take a closer look.

    The researchers analysed data from more than 24,000 Americans without dementia at the start of the study. Participants were tracked for up to 18 years. Crucially, the team compared dementia rates across marital groups: married, divorced, widowed and never-married.

    At first, it looked as though all three unmarried groups had a reduced risk of dementia compared with the married group. But, after accounting for other factors that could influence the results such as smoking and depression, only divorced and never-married people had a lower risk of dementia.

    Differences were also seen depending on the type of dementia. For example, being unmarried was consistently linked with a lower risk of Alzheimer’s disease, the most common form of dementia. But it was not shown for vascular dementia – a rarer form of the condition.

    The researchers also found that divorced or never-married people were less likely to progress from mild cognitive impairment to dementia and that people who became widowed during the study had a lower risk of dementia.

    Possible explanations

    One reason for the unexpected results? Married people might be diagnosed earlier because they have spouses who notice memory problems and push for a doctor’s visit. This could make dementia look more common in married people – even if it’s not.

    This is called ascertainment bias — when data is skewed because of who gets diagnosed or noticed more easily. However, the evidence of this was not strong. All participants had annual visits from a doctor, who could be thought of as a proxy partner who would spot early signs of dementia in the participant.

    Perhaps it was the case that the sample of people used, from the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center (NACC) study, was not representative of the wider population. Specifically, the sample showed low levels of ethnic and income diversity. Also, nearly 64% of the participants were married. This may affect how these unexpected findings translate to the wider world. They could just have been unique to NACC participants.

    However, it is more likely that these findings highlight just how complex the effects of marital disruptions, transitions and choices on brain health really are. Being married is by no means an established protective factor for dementia, with an earlier meta-analysis (a study of studies) showing mixed results.

    The new study from Florida State University uses one of the biggest samples to date to examine this issue, and carries a good deal of weight. It highlights that assumptions based on previous research that widowhood and divorce are very stressful life events that can trigger Alzheimer’s disease or that unmarried people are socially isolated and therefore may be at higher risk of dementia, may not always be correct.

    Relationship dynamics are by no means straightforward. As mentioned in the paper, such dynamics may “provide a more nuanced understanding than a simple binary effect”. Factors such as marriage quality, levels of satisfaction after divorce, cultural considerations, or the sociability of single people compared with coupled ones may help explain these seemingly contradictory results.

    This study challenges the idea that marriage is automatically good for brain health. Instead, it suggests the effect of relationships on dementia is far more complex. What matters might not be your relationship status but how supported, connected and fulfilled you feel.

    Avinash Chandra does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Being married linked to increased risk of dementia – new study – https://theconversation.com/being-married-linked-to-increased-risk-of-dementia-new-study-253875

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is a ‘revisionist’ state, and what are they trying to revise?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Andrew Latham, Professor of Political Science, Macalester College

    A meeting of top diplomats from China, Iran and Russia – three so-called revisionist powers. Photo by Getty Images

    Once upon a time, “revisionist power” was a term reserved for nations trying to overturn the postwar liberal order – the usual suspects being countries like Russia, China or Iran.

    But lately, that concept is starting to fray. When Beijing’s top diplomat says the United States is the one disrupting global stability, and respected analysts argue that Washington itself is acting like a revisionist state, the label suddenly looks a lot less tidy.

    And yet the term is everywhere – in think tank reports, in political speeches, in headlines about political hot spots.

    But what does revisionist really mean? And why should we care?

    The roots of ‘revisionism’

    At its core, “revisionist power” is a label applied to nations that want to change the way the world is ordered. The concept dates back to the period between the two world wars, when it described countries opposing the Treaty of Versailles that ended World War I. Political scientist Hans Morgenthau later distinguished between status quo powers and those seeking to overturn the balance of power.

    The label itself was popularized in the mid-20th century, especially through A.F.K. Organski’s 1958 work on power transition, which defined revisionist powers as those dissatisfied with the existing order and determined to reshape it.

    The change desired by nations can take many forms: redrawing borders, rebalancing regional power balances or creating alternative rules, norms and institutions to the ones that currently structure international politics. The key is that revisionists nations aren’t just unhappy with specific policies – they’re dissatisfied with the broader system and want to reshape it in fundamental ways.

    The concept comes out of the realist tradition in international relations, which sees the world as an arena of power politics.

    In that framework, countries operate in an anarchic international system with no higher authority to enforce the rules. The most powerful nations construct or impose a particular set of rules, norms and institutions on the international system, creating an order that reflects their values and serves their interests.

    Revisionism in action

    In this tradition, status quo powers benefit from the system and want to keep it more or less as it is. But revisionist powers see the system as constraining or unjust – and seek to alter it.

    This doesn’t always mean war or open confrontation. Revisionism isn’t inherently aggressive, nor is it always destabilizing. It simply describes a nation’s support for or opposition to the prevailing international order. How that desire is expressed can include diplomacy, economic coercion or even armed conflict.

    Consider Russia. Its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 were not just violations of international law – they were clear efforts to overturn the post-Cold War, NATO-based security order in Europe. Russia was not lashing out at individual policies; it was challenging – or seeking to revise – the legitimacy of the existing system.

    China presents a different kind of case. Beijing has made use of existing international institutions and benefited enormously from global trade, but it’s also been building alternatives, including regional banks, trade blocs and digital infrastructure designed to reduce dependence on Western systems. China’s expanding presence in the South China Sea, its pressure on Taiwan and its desire to shape global norms on everything from human rights to internet governance point to a broader effort to revise the current order – though more gradually than Russia’s approach.

    Iran, meanwhile, operates mostly at the regional level. Through its support for proxy groups like Hezbollah, its influence in Iraq and Yemen, and its confrontational stance toward Israel and the Gulf monarchies, Iran has long sought to reshape the Middle East’s power dynamics. It’s not trying to rewrite the entire international system, but it’s certainly revisionist in the region.

    A loaded term

    Of course, calling a nation “revisionist” is not a neutral act. It reflects a judgment about whose vision of world order is legitimate and whose is not. A rising power might see itself as correcting historical imbalances, not disrupting stability. The term can be useful, but it can also obscure as much as it reveals.

    Still, the label captures something real – though maybe not as cleanly as it used to. Much of today’s geopolitical tension does hinge on a basic divide: Some nations want to preserve the existing order, and others want to reshape it. But it’s no longer obvious who belongs in which camp.

    Now, when the U.S. sidelines institutions it once championed, imposes extraterritorial sanctions or pushes for new tech and trade regimes that bypass rivals, it starts to blur the line between defender and challenger of the status quo.

    Maybe the more useful question now isn’t just which great power is revisionist – but whether any of them are still committed to the post-World War II international order created in the U.S.’s image.

    This article is part of a series explaining foreign policy terms commonly used, but rarely explained.

    Andrew Latham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is a ‘revisionist’ state, and what are they trying to revise? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-revisionist-state-and-what-are-they-trying-to-revise-252966

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: China’s new underwater tool cuts deep, exposing vulnerability of vital network of subsea cables

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By John Calabrese, Assistant Professor, School of Public Affairs and Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute, American University

    Laying an undersea fiber-optic cable at Arrietara beach near the Spanish village of Sopelana. Ander Gillenea/AFP via Getty Images

    Chinese researchers have unveiled a new deep-sea tool capable of cutting through the world’s most secure subsea cables − and it has many in the West feeling a little jittery.

    The development, first revealed in February 2025 in the Chinese-language journal Mechanical Engineering, was touted as a tool for civilian salvage and seabed mining. But the ability to sever communications lines 13,000 feet (4,000 meters) below the sea’s surface − far beyond the operational range of most existing infrastructure − means that the tool can be used for other purposes with far-reaching implications for global communications and security.

    That is because undersea cables sustain the world’s international internet traffic, financial transactions and diplomatic exchanges. Recent incidents of cable damage near Taiwan and in northern Europe have already raised concerns of these systems’ vulnerabilities − and suspicions about the role of state-linked actors.

    The growing sophistication and openness of underwater technology evidenced by the latest news from China suggest that undersea infrastructure may play a larger role in future strategic competition. Indeed, this development adds a new layer to the broader challenge of securing critical infrastructure amid expanding technological reach and the rise of so called “gray zone” tactics – antagonisms that take place between direct war and peace.

    The backbone of global communication

    Despite their unassuming appearance, undersea cables form the backbone of modern communication systems. Stretching around 870,000 miles (over 1.4 million kilometers) across every ocean, these cables transmit almost 100% of global internet communication.

    Underwater cables unite the world.
    TeleGeography/submarinecablemap.com, CC BY-SA

    These information superhighways are a major engine for the modern economy and are indispensable for things such as almost instantaneous financial transactions and real-time diplomatic and military communications.

    If all these cables were suddenly severed, only a sliver of U.S. communication traffic could be restored using every satellite in orbit.

    The entire system is built, owned, operated and maintained by the private sector. Indeed, approximately 98% of these cables are installed by a handful of firms. As of 2021, the U.S. company SubCom, French firm Alcatel Submarine Networks and Japanese firm Nippon Electric Company collectively held an 87% market share. China’s HMN Tech holds another 11%.

    Tech giants including Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft now own or lease roughly half of the undersea bandwidth worldwide, according to analysis by the U.S.-based telecommunications research group TeleGeography.

    Vulnerabilities and sabotage

    The very characteristics that make undersea cables effective also render them highly vulnerable. Built to be lightweight and efficient, they are exposed to a variety of natural hazards, including underwater volcanic eruptions, typhoons and floods.

    But human activity is still the primary cause of cable damage, whether it’s from accidental anchor drags or inadvertent entanglement with trawler nets.

    Now, security experts are increasingly concerned that future human disruptions might be intentional, with nations launching coordinated attacks on undersea cables as part of a hybrid war strategy.

    Such assaults could disrupt not only civilian communications but also critical military networks.

    An adversary, for example, could cut off a nation’s command structures from intelligence feeds, sensor data and communication with deployed forces. The ramifications extend even to nuclear deterrence: Without reliable communication, a nuclear-armed state might lose the ability to control or monitor its strategic weapons.

    The loss of communications, even for a few minutes, could be catastrophic. It could mean the difference between a successful defense and a crippling first strike.

    A technician explains the undersea damage to cables around Taiwan following a 2006 earthquake.
    Sam Yeh/AFP via Getty Images

    Geopolitical threats

    In recent years, Western policymakers have become particularly concerned about the capabilities of Russia and China to exploit the vulnerabilities of undersea cables.

    One particularly illustrative incident occurred in 2023 when Taiwanese authorities accused two Chinese vessels of cutting the only two subsea cables supplying internet to Taiwan’s Matsu Islands.

    The resulting digital isolation of 14,000 residents for six weeks was not an one-off episode. Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party has pointed to a pattern, noting that Chinese vessels have disrupted cable operations on 27 occasions since 2018.

    In January 2025, Taiwan’s coast guard blamed a Cameroon- and Tanzania-flagged vessel crewed by seven Chinese nationals and operated by a Hong Kong-based company when an undersea cable was severed off the island’s northeastern coast.

    Such incidents, often described as gray-zone aggression, are designed to wear down an adversary’s resilience and test the limits of response.

    China’s recent push to enhance its cable-cutting capabilities coincides with a surge in its military drills around Taiwan, including a number of recent exercises.

    Similar cable disruptions have occurred in the Baltic Sea. In October 2023, a telecom cable connecting Sweden and Estonia was damaged along with a gas pipeline. In January 2025, a cable linking Latvia and Sweden was breached, triggering NATO patrols and a Swedish seizure of a vessel suspected of sabotage tied to Russian activities.

    Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, even hinted at the possibility of targeting undersea communication cables as retaliation for actions such as the Nord Stream pipeline explosions in 2023.

    The involvement of state-linked vessels in incidents operating under flags of convenience − that is, registered to another country − further complicates efforts to attribute and deter such attacks.

    It isn’t just security and defense at risk. The modern financial system is predicated on the assumption of continuous, high-speed connectivity; any interruption, however brief, could disrupt markets, halt trading and lead to significant monetary losses.

    The undersea battlefield

    Given the strategic importance of undersea cables and the multifaceted risks they face, Western governments intent on preventing further conflict would be wise to find a comprehensive and internationally coordinated way to secure the infrastructure against threats.

    One clear option would be to bolster repair and maintenance capacities. Currently, a significant vulnerability stems from the overreliance on Chinese repair ships. China’s robust maritime industry and state-supported investments in global telecommunications has contributed to the Asian nation taking a prominent position when it comes to cable repair ships.

    The protection of undersea cables should not, I believe, be viewed as the responsibility of any single nation but as a collective priority for all nations reliant on this infrastructure. As such, international frameworks and agreements could facilitate information sharing, standardize security protocols and establish rapid response mechanisms in the event of a cable breach.

    But such international efforts would be fighting against the tide. The incidents in Taiwan, the Baltic Sea and elsewhere come as great power competition intensifies between the U.S. and China.

    China, in developing deep-water cable-cutting technology, may be sending a message of intent. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s “America First” approach signals a shift that could complicate efforts to foster partnerships for the general global good.

    The defense of undersea cables reflects the challenges of our hyperconnected world, requiring a balance of innovation, strategy and cooperation. But as nations including China and Russia seemingly test and probe this vital global infrastructure, it appears the systems underpinning the West’s prosperity and security could become one of its greatest vulnerabilities.

    John Calabrese does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. China’s new underwater tool cuts deep, exposing vulnerability of vital network of subsea cables – https://theconversation.com/chinas-new-underwater-tool-cuts-deep-exposing-vulnerability-of-vital-network-of-subsea-cables-251877

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Will Africa’s young voters continue to punish incumbents at the ballot box in 2025? We are about to find out

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Richard Aidoo, Professor of Political Science, Coastal Carolina University

    Supporters of opposition candidate and former President John Dramani Mahama celebrate his victory in Accra, Ghana, on Dec. 8, 2024. AP Photo/Jerome Delay

    Voters in Gabon head to the ballot box on April 12, 2025, in a vote that marks the first election in the Central African nation since a 2023 coup ended the 56-year rule of the Bongo family.

    It is also the first presidential vote to take place in Africa in 2025, to be followed by contests later this year in Ivory Coast, Malawi, Guinea, Central African Republic, Guinea-Bissau, Tanzania, Seychelles and Cameroon.

    Of particular interest is whether these elections will continue the trend of last year’s votes. As the continent with the youngest population, Africa’s youth was crucial throughout 2024 to a series of seismic political shifts – not least the removal of incumbents and changes in the governing status quo in Ghana, Senegal and South Africa.

    Indeed, analysis of the 2024 African Youth Survey – one of the most comprehensive continent-wide polls of people age 18 to 24 – and election results of that year show a clear lack of optimism among the youth.

    Unemployment, the rising cost of living and corruption are primary factors driving youth dissatisfaction on the continent. For example, 59% of South African youth considered their country to be heading the wrong direction – and that’s not hard to imagine given that the country’s youth unemployment rate reached 45.5% in 2024. Not surprisingly, unemployment was a key factor in the election results. Meanwhile, widespread protests in Kenya and Uganda in the summer of 2024 were youth-led and sparked, respectively, by concerns over tax increases and corruption.

    As a professor of political science and an expert in African politics, I believe that a failure to address such concerns could have potentially serious implications for political leaders in the upcoming elections. It also makes it more difficult for countries to consolidate or protect already-fragile democracies on the continent.

    Unemployment fueling instability

    While African political campaigns often make note of persistently high rates of youth unemployment, the policy priorities of governments across the continent have seemingly failed to fix this intractable problem.

    In a 2023 Afrobarometer survey, unemployment topped the list of policy priorities for African youth between the ages of 18 and 35.

    Supporters of the UMkhonto weSizwe party, which helped unseat the long-time African National Congress, attend an election meeting near Durban, South Africa, ahead of the May 2024 general elections.
    AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti

    But for a multitude of reasons – including the lack of investment in training youth and other priorities – African governments have been unable or unwilling to tackle youth unemployment.

    Many governments, faced with the ongoing economic aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic and supply-chain issues – which exacerbated rising living costs, high inflation and external debt issues – pursued unpopular revenue collection policies

    Take Ghana, where in 2022 the government introduced an e-levy – a tax on electronic cash transfers. The move proved deeply unpopular and was dropped by the new government in 2024.

    The violent anti-tax protests in Kenya also provide an example of desperate unemployed youth tapping into a sense of deep popular resentment over fiscal policies.

    The combination of deep dissatisfaction with government policies and high youth joblessness can be a destabilizing influence. A 2023 United Nations Development Program study focusing on Ghana pointed to a problem that is common elsewhere on the continent. It concluded that in regions with higher-than-average youth unemployment, that factor was the most common cause for violent extremism and radicalization.

    The U.N. study underscored the importance of addressing the social and economic challenges that foster marginalization and anger among youth across sub-Saharan Africa.

    The issue of youth unemployment in Africa is exacerbated by the cumulative growth in the youth labor force – estimated to grow by 72.6 million between 2023 and 2050, according to a 2024 report by the International Labor Organization.

    The role that unemployment played in Africa’s 2024 elections does not bode well for some of those governments heading to the polls this year. In Gabon, youth unemployment has hovered above 35% in recent years.

    A corrupting influence

    Corruption remains a persistent social and political issue in much of Africa and continues to impede the efforts of youth to seek meaningful opportunities. So it is unsurprising that the issue was front and center during a number of 2024 elections, including in Senegal, South Africa and Ghana.

    The concerns in those countries mirror grievances registered around the continent more broadly, with reducing government corruption listed as a top priority by respondents in the African Youth Survey.

    Similar to unemployment, high levels of corruption correlated to some of the political shifts of 2024.

    An Afrobarometer survey of attitudes in 2024 showed that 74% of Ghanaians believed corruption had increased over the previous year.

    In Kenya, 77% of people view their government’s efforts in fighting corruption as ineffectual.

    Of particular concern to many African youth is the belief that security forces and government officials are often considered the most corrupt and that incidents of regularized corruption are underreported.

    And it is youth that bear the brunt of much of this corruption. According to a 2022 U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime report, people between the ages 18 and 34 are among the most vulnerable to having to pay bribes to public officials in Ghana.

    Supporters of soldiers who launched a coup against the government demonstrate in Niamey, Niger, on July 27, 2023.
    AP Photo/Fatahoulaye Hassane Midou

    Again, youth attitudes toward corruption don’t bode well for many of the governments in this year’s elections. Gabon, Cameroon, Central African Republic and Guinea-Bissau all score poorly on Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index.

    The fragility of democracy

    There is an ongoing debate on the extent of slowdown of democratic progress in Africa, a trend that is underscored by a number of African military coups in recent years, including in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Niger.

    Democracy is at its strongest when it empowers governments to deliver on the needs of their populations, particularly the youth.

    But the experience of incumbent governments in 2024 elections suggests that too many may have disregarded young people’s needs, which in turn has led to anger resulting in destabilizing protests and regime change – both through democratic and undemocratic means.

    It also makes it harder to instill democratic sentiment among younger voters.

    Over half of Africa’s 18- to 35-year-olds surveyed in the 2023 Afrobarometer agreed that the military can intervene when leaders abuse power – a pertinent caution about their willingness to support political change, even if it interrupts the democratic process.

    While a majority of youth in Africa still retain an apparent preference for democracy to other forms of governance, a growing proportion would embrace nondemocratic governance under some circumstances, according to the 2024 African Youth Survey. The top scores in this particular response came from Gabon, Ivory Coast and Tanzania – all of which have upcoming elections in 2025.

    Richard Aidoo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Will Africa’s young voters continue to punish incumbents at the ballot box in 2025? We are about to find out – https://theconversation.com/will-africas-young-voters-continue-to-punish-incumbents-at-the-ballot-box-in-2025-we-are-about-to-find-out-251413

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kids cheering ‘chicken jockey!’ at A Minecraft Movie isn’t antisocial – it creates a chance for us to connect

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Sophia Staite, Lecturer in Humanities, University of Tasmania

    Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures

    Social media is ablaze with reports of kids going wild at screenings of A Minecraft Movie.

    Some cinemas are cracking down. There are reports of cinemas calling in police to deal with rowdy theatregoers and making special announcements before the film, warning of consequences for “anti-social behaviour” including “clapping and shouting”.

    But these kids are engaging in a kind of communal experience. Rather than being antisocial behaviour – couldn’t we label it as prosocial?

    The global fandom of Minecraft

    Minecraft was first released in 2011 and has sold over 350 million copies, making it the best-selling video game of all time.

    Minecraft is an unstructured game that provides mineable resources and leaves players to create whatever they want with them. Creations can be as basic as stacking blocks of wood to make a wall, or as complex as a working computer.

    It has become the nexus of a vast online community of people with an interest in the game.

    Players connect to one-another digitally and share certain social norms and knowledge, including a memeified vernacular. Minecraft-playing Youtubers have also become popular, and are the source of many memes.

    The community is dominated by children and young adults and the incomprehensibility of their vernacular for other generations is possibly part of its appeal.

    Within child and youth fan communities the usual hierarchies of communication are reversed. Instead of kids having to learn to speak according to adults’ rules, in this community the kids maintain a knowledge system that excludes a lot of adults.

    Enter A Minecraft Movie

    A Minecraft Movie opened last weekend to enormous box office success, bringing in US$313.2 million globally. The film follows four humans who stumble through a portal into the Overworld (Minecraft). Their only way home involves teaming up with fellow human Steve (Jack Black) to save the Overworld from the creativity-hating Piglins.

    Almost immediately, social media conversations sprang up about the behaviour of audiences. One bemused parent described the atmosphere of the cinema as “like [when] The Beatles came to America”.

    Many of the videos shared of audiences during screenings show joyful scenes of communal pleasure, similar to other responses to highly anticipated films such as Avengers: Endgame.

    But while the response to Avengers: Endgame was celebrated, the behaviour of children and teens at A Minecraft Movie has been framed by news outlets in negative terms.

    Journalist Keith Stuart suggests the different responses are a result of parents feeling excluded by A Minecraft Movie’s frequent references to memes.

    Negative news reports link audience behaviour to existing moral panics about social media challenges and are particularly focused on popcorn being thrown.

    The use of the same two or three videos of popcorn throwing to illustrate multiple news articles highlights how relatively few reports of popcorn throwing there currently are.

    Instead, most of the debate on social media has been about the etiquette of noisiness during screenings, including cheering and clapping.

    Finding community

    A Minecraft Movie speaks the memeified vernacular of its online community.

    The film incorporates references to longstanding memes, popular Minecraft YouTubers (and some cameos) and, of course, to the game itself.

    The film is speaking directly to Minecraft fans, and audiences are responding by displaying their mastery of this vernacular and strengthening their sense of belonging.

    By clapping and cheering when they recognise a meme, or saying lines of dialogue in sync with the actors, kids are identifying themselves as members of a community.

    When a whole cinema full of young people does this simultaneously, they are identifying themselves to and with one another.

    This is prosocial, strategic communication – not the antisocial pandemonium and chaos some reports would have us believe. Instead, fans are reporting the cheering and clapping happens at specific moments: they are enjoying both the film, and reacting to it.

    During the brief (but meaningful for knowledgeable audience members) tribute to beloved YouTuber Technoblade, who died of cancer in 2022, there have been reports of whole theatres falling silent as a mark of respect.

    An online community of kids and teens has suddenly become hyper visible to adults because it has intersected with the traditional media space of the cinema.

    Online games such as Minecraft are a crucial part of kids’ social lives and play.

    Perhaps adults can seize this moment as an opportunity to learn more about something that clearly matters deeply to a lot of kids.

    Sophia Staite does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Kids cheering ‘chicken jockey!’ at A Minecraft Movie isn’t antisocial – it creates a chance for us to connect – https://theconversation.com/kids-cheering-chicken-jockey-at-a-minecraft-movie-isnt-antisocial-it-creates-a-chance-for-us-to-connect-254287

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Do Inuit languages really have many words for snow? The most interesting finds from our study of 616 languages

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Charles Kemp, Professor, School of Psychological Sciences, The University of Melbourne

    Shutterstock

    Languages are windows into the worlds of the people who speak them – reflecting what they value and experience daily.

    So perhaps it’s no surprise different languages highlight different areas of vocabulary. Scholars have noted that Mongolian has many horse-related words, that Maori has many words for ferns, and Japanese has many words related to taste.

    Some links are unsurprising, such as German having many words related to beer, or Fijian having many words for fish. The linguist Paul Zinsli wrote an entire book on Swiss-German words related to mountains.

    In our recently-published study we took a broad approach towards understanding the links between different languages and concepts.

    Using computational methods, we identified areas of vocabulary that are characteristic of specific languages, to provide insight into linguistic and cultural variation.

    Our work adds to a growing understanding of language, culture, and the way they both relate.

    Japanese has many words related to taste. One of these is umami, which is often used to describe the rich taste of matcha green tea.
    Shutterstock

    Our method

    We tested 163 links between languages and concepts, drawn from the literature.

    We compiled a digital dataset of 1574 bilingual dictionaries that translate between English and 616 different languages. Since many of these dictionaries were still under copyright, we only had access to counts of how often a particular word appeared in each dictionary.

    One example of a concept we looked at was “horse”, for which the top-scoring languages included French, German, Kazakh and Mongolian. This means dictionaries in these languages had a relatively high number of

    1. words for horses. For instance, Mongolian аргамаг means “a good racing or riding horse”
    2. words related to horses. For instance, Mongolian чөдөрлөх means “to hobble a horse”.

    However, it is also possible the counts were influenced by “horse” appearing in example sentences for unrelated terms.

    Not a hoax after all?

    Our findings support most links previously highlighted by researchers, including that Hindi has many words related to love and Japanese has many words related to obligation and duty.

    ‘Silk’ was one of the most popular concepts for Mandarin Chinese.
    Shutterstock

    We were especially interested in testing the idea that Inuit languages have many words for snow. This notorious claim has long been distorted and exaggerated. It has even been dismissed as the “great Eskimo vocabulary hoax”, with some experts saying it simply isn’t true.

    But our results suggest the Inuit snow vocabulary is indeed exceptional. Out of 616 languages, the language with the top score for “snow” was Eastern Canadian Inuktitut. The other two Inuit languages in our data set (Western Canadian Inuktitut and North Alaskan Inupiatun) also achieved high scores for “snow”.

    The Eastern Canadian Inuktitut dictionary in our dataset includes terms such as kikalukpok, which means “noisy walking on hard snow”, and apingaut, which means “first snow fall”.

    The top 20 languages for “snow” included several other languages of Alaska, such as Ahtena, Dena’ina and Central Alaskan Yupik, as well as Japanese and Scots.

    Scots includes terms such as doon-lay, meaning “a heavy fall of snow”, feughter meaning “a sudden, slight fall of snow”, and fuddum, meaning “snow drifting at intervals”.

    You can explore our findings using the tool we developed, which allows you to identify the top languages for any given concept, and the top concepts for a particular language.

    Language and environment

    Although the languages with top scores for “snow” are all spoken in snowy regions, the top-ranked languages for “rain” were not always from the rainiest parts of the world.

    For instance, South Africa has a medium level of rainfall, but languages from this region, such as Nyanja, East Taa and Shona, have many rain-related words. This is probably because, unlike snow, rain is important for human survival – which means people still talk about it in its absence.

    For speakers of East Taa, rain is both relatively rare and desirable. This is reflected in terms such as lábe ||núu-bâ, an “honorific form of address to thunder to bring rain” and |qába, which refers to the “ritual sprinkling of water or urine to bring rain”.

    Our tool can also be used to explore various concepts related to perception (“smell”), emotion (“love”) and cultural beliefs (“ghost”).

    The top-scoring languages for “smell” include a cluster of Oceanic languages such as Marshallese, which has terms such as jatbo meaning “smell of damp clothing”, meļļā meaning “smell of blood”, and aelel meaning “smell of fish, lingering on hands, body, or utensils”.

    Prior to our research, the smell terms of the Pacific Islands had received little attention.

    Some caveats

    Although our analysis reveals many interesting links between languages and concepts, the results aren’t always reliable – and should be checked against original dictionaries where possible.

    For example, the top concepts for Plautdietsch (Mennonite Low German) include von (“of”), den (“the”) and und (“and”) – all of which are unrevealing. We excluded similar words from other languages using Wiktionary, but our method did not filter out these common words for Plautdietsch.

    Also, the word counts reflect both dictionary definitions and other elements, such as example sentences. While our analysis excluded words that are especially likely to appear in example sentences (such as “woman” and “father”), such words could have still influenced our results to some extent.

    Most importantly, our results run the risk of perpetuating potentially harmful stereotypes if taken at face value. So we urge caution and respect while using the tool. The concepts it lists for any given language provide, at best, a crude reflection of the cultures associated with that language.

    Charles Kemp was supported by a Future Fellowship (FT190100200) awarded by the Australian Research Council.

    Temuulen Khishigsuren was supported by a Future Fellowship (FT190100200) awarded by the Australian Research Council.

    Ekaterina Vylomova and Terry Regier do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Do Inuit languages really have many words for snow? The most interesting finds from our study of 616 languages – https://theconversation.com/do-inuit-languages-really-have-many-words-for-snow-the-most-interesting-finds-from-our-study-of-616-languages-252522

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Pikachu protesters, Studio Ghibli memes and the subversive power of cuteness

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Yii-Jan Lin, Associate Professor of New Testament, Yale University

    The Pokémon character Pikachu has become the unofficial symbol of the opposition to Turkish President Recep Erdogan. Pat Batard/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

    In Antalya, Turkey, in the early hours of March 27, 2025, Pikachu was spotted fleeing the police, making a getaway as fast as his short yellow legs could waddle.

    The person dressed as the popular Pokémon character had been objecting to the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, whose political party later posted on X, “Pepper spray, which even affects Pikachu, won’t do anything to you or me! #ResistPikachu.”

    At the same time, the internet was having a field day with another stalwart of Japanese anime, deploying generative AI to infuse famous memes, family portraits and movie scenes with a patina of cuteness by recasting them in the style of the Japanese animation company Studio Ghibli.

    Never mind that Studio Ghibli director and founder Hayao Miyazaki famously denounced AI-generated art as “an insult to life itself.” Both the Pikachu protester and the viral Studio Ghibli-esque animations demonstrate the global appeal of cuteness.

    But to me, there’s more to cute than its ability to go viral.

    Cuteness can be used politically. It can highlight injustices against the vulnerable, and it can boost support of the underdog.

    It’s a form of soft power in the truest sense of the term.

    Asia embraces the cute

    As a Taiwanese American, I’ve been a lifelong fan of the cuteness that’s part of East Asian cultures: cute cartoon characters, cute stationery and even cute-looking food.

    Now I study cuteness: what makes something “cute,” and how it operates in culture and politics.

    Many well-known, cute, pop culture characters and products can be traced to Japan, particularly after World War II, when Japanese animation – known as anime – and a style of Japanese comics called manga became popular.

    Their narratives and aesthetics spoke to a country still reeling from devastation wrought by the atomic bombs and the humiliation of U.S. occupation.

    Anime and manga imagined both dystopian and utopian futures, using stories that were nostalgic, upsetting, or a blend of both to process collective trauma.

    In many cases, cute characters guided viewers and readers through grief, guilt and loss. For example, the manga “Barefoot Gen” details the adventures of 6-year-old Gen after he survives the bombing of Hiroshima. Likewise, Studio Ghibli’s “Grave of the Fireflies” tells the story of two young siblings, Seita and Setsuko, who face starvation after the bombing of Kobe in the waning days of World War II. They’re drawn with large eyes and expressive faces, evoking innocence and powerlessness.

    The trailer for Studio Ghibli’s ‘Grave of the Fireflies.’

    Both Studio Ghibli and the Pokémon franchise emerged in the latter half of the 20th century, along with other titans of cuteness, such as Hello Kitty – she just celebrated her 50th birthday – Doraemon, and popular Nintendo characters Kirby and Yoshi.

    Cuteness now dominates East Asian cultures.

    Cute mascots such as Tencent’s QQ Penguin hawk products in China; popular cartoon characters plaster the sides of Japanese trains; and Taipei’s subway cards come in the shape of pink bunnies and miniature rice cookers.

    In Japan, the term “kawaii” refers to the lovable and cute. This includes not only cartoon characters and plush dolls, but also clothing and even speech, such as talking with a pout or in a childlike voice.

    Across Asia, you can see cuteness celebrated in the way people flash heart symbols with their fingers – a gesture originating in South Korea – and you can hear it in the way celebrities sometimes speak with a baby voice, puff out their cheeks or bat their eyelashes.

    Characters often express themselves in cute ways on television shows in Korea, where it’s called ‘aegyo.’

    Softening the blows

    Cuteness has a place in American culture. But it has nowhere near the cultural cachet that it has in Asia.

    Yet to me, the Studio Ghibli memes that swept American social media platforms revealed a widespread longing for tenderness at a time when the world seems particularly harsh, violent and unpredictable.

    Theorist Sianne Ngai has argued that cuteness is usually based on the power differential between the observer and the cute object: A small kitten, a stuffed animal or a cooing baby are cute, in part, because they’re so vulnerable.

    I think that’s why the White House’s efforts to join in on the Ghibli memes fell flat. Its X account posted a Ghibli-esque image of a Dominican woman crying while being handcuffed by an ICE agent. The depiction generated outrage.

    The cartoon imagines that the audience would revel in punching down. It’s a perversion of how cuteness works, celebrating the powerful – the ICE agent and the U.S. government – and not the powerless. Contrast the White House’s image with the “Grave of the Fireflies,” which highlighted the vulnerability of children during war.

    Rallying around cuteness

    Yet the powerlessness of cute characters can also, paradoxically, be powerful: Most onlookers can’t help but cheer for a furry, yellow cartoon animal fleeing from riot police. A cute character can look helpless, but it can rally support for the underdog.

    Perhaps that’s why Pikachu again popped up at two other protests: at an anti-Netanyahu demonstration in Israel on April 5, 2025, and at an anti-Trump rally in Washington, D.C. that same day.

    Cuteness, perhaps not surprisingly, has been used as a political tool in Asia. The Milk Tea Alliance, which formed in 2020, is a pan-Asian, pro-democracy movement that unites communities in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, Myanmar and beyond.

    The origins of the Milk Tea Alliance.

    Organizers pointedly emphasize the effectiveness of cuteness and humor as a tool to condemn violence and denounce authoritarianism. Online images shared by the movement include anime-style drawings of young student protestors and cartoons of anthropomorphized cups of Taiwan bubble tea, Thai cha and Hong Kong milk tea holding hands.

    Comedy can be subversive. Political cartoons and comedians, of course, have long tapped into this dynamic.

    But cuteness adds a touch of whimsical absurdity that further defangs the power hungry. Is it any wonder Chinese officials banned the release of a Winnie-the-Pooh movie after memes comparing Xi Jinping to the beloved stuffed bear went viral?

    Despite its cuddly, quaint and charming exterior, cuteness contains hidden superpowers: It celebrates the vulnerable, while sapping authoritarians of gravitas they seek to project.

    Yii-Jan Lin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Pikachu protesters, Studio Ghibli memes and the subversive power of cuteness – https://theconversation.com/pikachu-protesters-studio-ghibli-memes-and-the-subversive-power-of-cuteness-253909

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ICE can now enter K-12 schools − here’s what educators should know about student rights and privacy

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brian Boggs, Assistant Professor of Policy and Educational Leadership, University of Michigan

    Educators are legally obligated to protect and educate all their students. PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty

    United States federal agents tried to enter two Los Angeles elementary schools on April 7, 2025, and were denied entry, according to the Los Angeles Times. The agents were apparently seeking contact with five students who had allegedly entered the country without authorization.

    The Trump administration has been targeting foreign-born college students and professors for deportation since February 2025. This was the first known attempt to target younger students since the U.S. Department of Homeland Security in January rescinded a 2011 policy that had limited immigration enforcement actions in locations deemed sensitive by the government such as hospitals, churches and schools.

    “Criminals will no longer be able to hide in America’s schools and churches to avoid arrest,” the department said on Jan. 21, 2025.

    Roughly 600,000 migrant students without legal status are enrolled in the U.S public education system.

    Many K-12 educators are worried that Immigration and Customs Enforcement could start removing students from classrooms. In some places, including New York City, school attendance has decreased over fears that children could be swept up in a raid.

    I am a scholar who studies the intersection of U.S. law and the public education system. Under U.S. law, ICE can now legally enter K-12 school grounds. That makes it important for students and schools to understand their rights under the law.

    The federal government

    Article 1, Section 8, of the U.S. Constitution gives Congress the ability to regulate immigration and “provide for the common defense and general Welfare of the United States.”

    This last clause was used following the 9/11 terrorist attacks of 2001 as the constitutional basis to establish the Department of Homeland Security and create ICE as one of its security agencies. ICE enforces over 400 federal statutes dealing with immigration, including the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952, which allows it to investigate and detain certain noncitizens.

    ICE arrested Columbia University student Mahmoud Kahlil in March 2025, spurring protests. Several other international students have been detained since.
    Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images

    This law can place schools and their staff in a potentially conflicted legal position if ICE starts targeting schools, because educators have legal obligations to their students.

    Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 requires public schools to educate every student without regard for their citizenship or immigration status. Meanwhile, residents of all 50 U.S. states have the right to a free and public education under their state’s constitution.

    Under the laws governing immigration and ICE’s role in enforcement, educators cannot obstruct an ICE investigation or knowingly hide students.

    Laws and court precedents

    The U.S. Supreme Court has additionally ruled that students who are not legally living in the U.S. have the same right to an education as any other child.

    In the 1975 U.S. Supreme Court decision Plyler v. Doe, the justices struck down a Texas law allowing the state to withhold school district funds for educating children without legal immigration status. The court said the law was unconstitutional because it violated the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment, which reads in part that no state shall “deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.”

    Plyler v. Doe asserted that “person” meant just that − a person, not necessarily a citizen.

    Around the same time, the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act was enacted to protect personal student information from release to a third party. That includes law enforcement and ICE, except under three circumstances: the parents consent to the release; a school directory includes student information; or a court orders the school to release the information.

    Finally, the McKinney-Vento Homeless Assistance Act says that schools must enroll and educate students who are with unstable living situations, including migrants, without discrimination.

    In addition to these federal laws and cases, many states have additional laws that encourage the education of local K-12 students who lack citizenship or residency status. In Michigan, for example, the Elliott-Larsen Civil Rights Act of 1976 prohibits discrimination based on national origin and race in schools, including in admissions and expulsions.

    A women who fears she could be targeted by immigration officials holds a ‘know your rights’ card handed out by her grandchildren’s school on Jan. 22, 2025, in the San Francisco Bay Area.
    AP Photo/Godofredo A. Vásquez

    School districts and ICE

    What can K-12 educators do if they find themselves confronting contradictory legal obligations − that of educating all students and that of not impeding a criminal investigation?

    Interpreting conflicts in the law is the job of judges − not teachers, ICE agents or academics. The following guidance may help districts prepare for immigration enforcement in K-12 schools:

    1. Get ready. Every school district should develop a process and protocol for how to engage with law enforcement in general and ICE specifically.

    This plan would involve coordination between the school principals and district superintendent, as well as, most importantly, the district’s lawyers. Traditional school corporate counsel may not have much experience in criminal law; engaging additional counsel with experience in criminal procedures and Fourth Amendment protections can be helpful.

    Everyone should understand their role in the plan. Administrative assistants are likely to be the first people engaged when ICE shows up to the school. Do they know what to do?

    2. Collect data thoughtfully. There is no state or federal mandate for schools to document citizenship for K-12 school enrollment, though some states are considering requiring proof of citizenship or legal immigration status for enrollment, including Oklahoma, Indiana, Texas, Tennessee and New Jersey.

    3. Obey the law. The Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act forbids sharing certain information about students with outsiders, including law enforcement. As a rule, then, staff should always avoid discussing students beyond what they are required to do as a function of their employment. Many school board policies ensure that the information they release publicly about enrolled students is minimal.

    4. Understand how warrants work. Just because a school is public does not mean that anyone can just come into a classroom, and that includes the police or ICE. A warrant may not be required to detain or arrest a student on the spot, but law enforcement must produce one to access any nonpublic areas of the school in search of that student. They must also show a warrant to see student records or other information, unless parents have previously consented to this information being shared.

    Under exigent circumstances, such as if the public is at risk of imminent harm, a warrant may not be required for police to enter the school.

    5. Keep records. If ICE does knock on the schoolhouse door, administrators should be sure to prepare a report, in accordance with school board policies, for the school district’s records that describes everything that happened and retain all documentation.

    Brian Boggs does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ICE can now enter K-12 schools − here’s what educators should know about student rights and privacy – https://theconversation.com/ice-can-now-enter-k-12-schools-heres-what-educators-should-know-about-student-rights-and-privacy-253519

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A Roman governor ordered Jesus’ crucifixion – so why did many Christians blame Jews for centuries?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Nathanael Andrade, Professor of History, Binghamton University, State University of New York

    ‘Ecce Homo’ (Behold the Man), by 19th-century painter Antonio Ciseri, depicts Pontius Pilate presenting Jesus to a crowd in Jerusalem. Tungsten/Galleria d’Arte Moderna via Wikimedia Commons

    It’s a straightforward part of the Easter story: The Roman governor Pontius Pilate had Jesus of Nazareth killed by his soldiers. He imposed a sentence that Roman judges often inflicted on social subversives – crucifixion.

    The New Testament Gospels say so. The Nicene Creed, one of Christianity’s key statements of faith, says Jesus “was crucified under Pontius Pilate.” The testimony of Paul, the first person whose preaching in the name of Jesus Christ is preserved in the New Testament, refers to the crucifixion.

    But over the past 2,000 years, it was common for some Christians to deem Pilate almost blameless for Jesus’ death and treat Jews as responsible – a belief that has shaped the global history of antisemitism.

    Throughout medieval times, Easter was often a dangerous time for Jewish communities, whom Christians targeted as “Christ-killers”. This perception was integral to the hate that motivated mass violence in Europe as late as the 19th and 20th centuries, including pogroms in Russia and even Nazi genocide.

    Why did Christian teachings practically let Pilate off the hook? Why did many Christians allege Jews were to blame?

    The Gospels’ story

    In the Gospels, the first four books of the New Testament, Pilate believes Jesus innocent of any crime. In some of them, he even proclaims so in public.

    But the chief priests of the ancient Jewish temple at Jerusalem see Jesus as a charismatic and popular Jewish preacher who challenges their authority. They have Jesus arrested and tried before Pilate during the week of Passover.

    ‘Jesus Before Pilate, First Interview,’ by 19th-century painter James Tissot.
    Gandvik/Brooklyn Museum via Wikimedia Commons

    Pilate schemes for Jesus’ release, but a riotous crowd clamors for his death. Pilate caves and decides to crucify Jesus, whom Christians believe rose from the dead three days later.

    Any reader of the Gospels knows the sequence, though it varies somewhat in each of them. The earliest Gospels, composed at least a generation after Jesus’ death, blamed the chief priests and attending crowd for persuading Pilate to have Jesus crucified. The Gospel of John, written some decades after the other three, portrayed Jews in general as responsible, and so did much of early Christian literature.

    One account, written in the mid-second century or later, and not included in the New Testament, even claimed that Jesus’ crucifixion was not ordered by Pilate. Instead, it blamed Herod Antipas, the Jewish ruler of Galilee – the region where Jesus grew up. Other texts from after the first few centuries A.D. said that Pilate became a Christian.

    Roman history

    Scholars have long debated the historical facts of Jesus’ trial. In my 2025 book, “Killing the Messiah,” I do too.

    The Gospel testimonies capture the basics of criminal trials before Roman judges, which were held in public. Judges posed questions to prosecutors and defendants, and had ample power to decide whether a person was innocent or guilty and impose a punishment.

    Writers who lived in the Roman Empire portrayed judges as capricious, unaccountable or swayed by menacing crowds. The Gospels reflect this attitude by making Pilate appear bullied into condemning an innocent man.

    An illustration from the 14th century shows Pontius Pilate washing his hands to absolve himself as Christ is beaten before crucifixion.
    Heritage Art/Heritage Images via Getty Images

    But from a historian’s viewpoint, there is a crucial problem with the Gospels’ description. Roman judges could and sometimes did face removal from office, property confiscation, exile or even death for executing clearly innocent people. In other words, it seems unlikely that Pilate would have proclaimed Jesus guiltless, but then conceded to pressure and condemned him anyway.

    Other ancient writers describe Pilate as someone who was not above offending the Jews of Judaea. According to the first-century Jewish philosopher Philo and the historian Josephus, Pilate had his soldiers carry objects that honored Roman emperors into Jerusalem, which Jewish residents saw as sacrilegious. When crowds protested, he sometimes backed down. But his soldiers attacked an agitated crowd that opposed Pilate’s use of Temple money to build an aqueduct. They also massacred an insurrection of Samaritans – people who also claimed descent from Israelites.

    Pilate did not cave to hostile crowds indiscriminately, or do whatever the chief priests wanted. Since Roman prefects like him had to coordinate with Jewish priests to govern Jerusalem, he likely viewed people who incited social disturbance against them as subversive. Jesus would have fit in that category, but neither Philo nor Josephus provides examples of Pilate killing people after acquitting them.

    Growing divide

    Why, then, did Pilate have Jesus crucified? As many scholars have argued, the simple answer would be that he believed Jesus committed some sort of sedition – not that the crowd simply pressured Pilate into doing so.

    Yet, when the Gospels were composed a generation after the crucifixion, they portrayed Pilate as convinced of Jesus’ innocence. As more time passed, other works of ancient Christian literature shifted accountability from Pilate to Jews.

    A mosaic showing St. Paul, one of the earliest apostles who preached after Jesus’ death, in the Basilica of San Vitale in Ravenna, Italy.
    Reserveacc/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    The experiences of Jesus’ early followers help explain this shift. They, like Jesus himself, were Jewish, and they considered him a heaven-sent Messiah. But over the course of the first and second centuries, they increasingly separated themselves from other Jews, until they began to see themselves as members of a non-Jewish movement: Christianity.

    In Roman authorities’ eyes, the Christians were troublesome, and they sometimes faced prosecution and capital punishment. In addition, Rome had inflicted atrocities and punitive measures upon Jews after insurgencies – further motivating Jesus’ followers to distance themselves. Their literature became increasingly hostile toward Jews.

    Historians and biblical scholars continue to debate why Pilate condemned Jesus. Was it for suggesting that he was the Messiah, or, in Pilate’s wording, “King of the Jews”? Did Jesus incite a crowd disturbance at the Temple during Passover – or were officials worried he could, even inadvertently? Were Jesus and his followers engaged in armed insurrection?

    But regardless of the answer, as I argue in my book, responsibility for the crucifixion lies with Pilate – not the chief priests and the Jewish crowd at Jerusalem.

    Nathanael Andrade has received fellowship funding from the Andrew Mellon Foundation/the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, the Institute for Research in the Humanities at the University of Wisconsin, and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.

    – ref. A Roman governor ordered Jesus’ crucifixion – so why did many Christians blame Jews for centuries? – https://theconversation.com/a-roman-governor-ordered-jesus-crucifixion-so-why-did-many-christians-blame-jews-for-centuries-250231

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Pornography may be commonplace, but a growing body of research shows it causes lasting harm to the brain and relationships

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Danielle Sukenik, Assistant Professor of Psychiatry, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus

    Problematic porn use is defined by having difficulty controlling or limiting use. taviox/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    While pornography has been present throughout human history in various forms, such as ancient erotic art to more modernized motion pictures, research shows an increase in use over recent decades given the rise of technology and accessibility.

    Pornography, meaning any media intended to depict or describe sexual content to heighten sexual arousal or pleasure, can serve many purposes. Users may seek sexual pleasure, find it a fun way to fight boredom, or turn to it because they are down or stressed and perhaps want to escape their feelings.

    Statistics show pornography to be commonplace: A 2018 study found that 91.5% of men and 60.2% of women had consumed it in the past month.

    It’s important to ask: What does viewing explicit materials do to your brain and real-life sexual and romantic relationships, and specifically to the people who see it when they are as young as 10 years old or even earlier?

    I am a licensed marriage and family therapist specializing in the treatment of a variety of mental health challenges. These include issues that are often seen in the context of relationships and larger systems such as media and pornography.

    While neither problematic pornography use nor addiction to it is listed in the handbook used for mental health diagnostics, known as the DSM, it may still be detrimental for many people in terms of their behavior, their relationships and their mental and physical well-being. People with problematic porn use have trouble reducing or controlling their pornography use despite the harm it does to their life.

    I will walk through some of these consequences below, starting with how the brain can be changed with pornography use.

    Brain changes behind pornography use

    While some of the most pertinent studies were done a decade ago or more, they remain highly relevant. Conducting research in this arena can be difficult due to the DSM’s exclusion of pornography “addiction” as a disorder as well as the sensitive nature of the topic. Controlled experiments on humans, particularly of this kind, are inherently unethical, therefore studies rely on surveys and reports.

    A 2015 study − one of the first brain scan studies on male pornography users − found a correlation between pornography use and reduced gray matter in part of the brain’s reward system involved in motivation and decision-making. The study also reported lower responsiveness to pornography and other sexual stimuli due to desensitization.

    This pattern likely results from lower connectivity between the prefrontal cortex − the decision-making part of the brain − and the reward as more porn is consumed. This in turn leads to increased cravings and impulsivity in order to achieve the previous levels of reward in the brain.

    Another study, published in 2016, found that 49% of subjects had experienced pursuing content that was previously not interesting to them or that they considered disgusting. Because pornography can affect brain changes and subsequent pleasure responses, porn users may eventually feel the need to seek more extreme content.

    This pursuit, in attempts to override the chemistry of the changing brain, may lend to disruption in the person’s life, often within relationships.

    So what does this look like and how are relationships suffering as a result?

    Porn can rewire the brain and has real impacts on relationships.

    How relationships can suffer

    While some research suggests that pornography use can positively support sexuality exploration in couples, including increased quality and frequency of sex with use of pornography, most studies highlight its negative impact on intimate relationships.

    The use of pornography is often associated with less relationship satisfaction and stability. Higher rates of infidelity, lower levels of commitment, increased emotional detachment and loss of trust are also evident in relationships affected by problematic porn use. The challenges related to unrealistic expectations, decreased sexual interest in a partner and increased partner insecurity influenced by pornography use have also been reported.

    One 2011 survey found that women more often told researchers that they had less sex as a result of their partner’s pornography use, and men reported being less aroused by sex with their partner. A 2021 study looking at the correlation between pornography use and sexual dysfunction in young men ages 18-35 found that more than 20% of sexually active participants reported some degree of erectile dysfunction in the month prior to the questionaire. This contrasts to 8% in men 20-29 and 11% in the 30-39 age group, based on a study of the general prevalence of erectile dysfunction across several countries.

    Given the prevalence of pornography use as well as data that indicates that consuming porn can damage relationships between intimate partners, what can couples do about it?

    Finding a way forward

    Since pornography use is often associated with shame and secrecy, it’s important for affected couples experiencing problems because one of them is consuming too much porn to openly discuss it to move through these challenges and work together as a team.

    Talking with loved ones and trusted support, such as close friends, about difficult issues is known to reduce shame, making taboo subject areas more approachable.

    I highly recommend seeking support from licensed therapists, especially those who specialize in the treatment of problematic pornography use, given the sensitive nature. In addition, peer support groups can be helpful in creating a sense of community and reducing isolation.

    Effects on young people

    It’s no surprise that pornography is getting into the hands of young people at earlier ages as accessibility via cellphones and internet use has been increasing.

    One 2022 study from Common Sense Media, an organization dedicated to helping parents navigate suitable media content for their children, reported that 73% of study respondents between the ages of 13 and 17 have watched porn. This differs from previous decades. For example, a study conducted in 2005 found 42% of youth internet users had been exposed to pornographic content.

    The 2022 study found that 54% of these young people said they had been exposed to it before reaching the age of 13, and 15% at the age of 10 or younger. About 58% said they had accidentally encountered pornographic material.

    Young people’s exposure to pornography can be disturbing to them and may be linked to higher rates of personality and impulse disorders.

    Those who are exposed to pornography at earlier ages may also end up with unrealistic views of sexual behavior and beliefs, as well as earlier sexual exploration in comparison to those who aren’t.

    Pornography use could have even more profound effects on the developing brain. This is because adolescent brains are undergoing rapid development, and connections are being formed and reorganized at a high rate of speed during the teen years, a physiological concept called neuroplasticity.

    A 2021 study of almost 11,000 European adolescents between the ages of 14 and 17 found those exposed to pornography were more likely to engage in rule-breaking and aggressive behaviors.

    These patterns drive home the great need for parental involvement in their children’s internet activity.

    Danielle Sukenik does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Pornography may be commonplace, but a growing body of research shows it causes lasting harm to the brain and relationships – https://theconversation.com/pornography-may-be-commonplace-but-a-growing-body-of-research-shows-it-causes-lasting-harm-to-the-brain-and-relationships-249725

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Citizenship voting requirement in SAVE Act has no basis in the Constitution – and ignores precedent that only states decide who gets to vote

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By John J. Martin, Research Assistant Professor of Law, University of Virginia

    People stand in line to vote in Santa Monica, Calif., on Nov. 5, 2024. Apu Gomes/Getty Images

    The Republican-led House of Representatives passed on April 10, 2025, the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act – or SAVE Act. The bill would make voting harder for tens of millions of Americans.

    The SAVE Act would require anyone registering to vote in federal elections to first “provide documentary proof of U.S. citizenship” in person, like a REAL ID or a passport.

    The House already passed an identical bill in July 2024, also along partisan lines, with the GOP largely supporting the legislation. At that time, the Senate killed the bill. With a now GOP-controlled Senate, and a Republican in the White House, the SAVE Act could become law before 2025 ends.

    Voting rights experts and advocacy organizations have detailed how the legislation could suppress voting. In part, they say it would particularly create barriers in low-income and minority communities. People in such communities often lack the forms of ID acceptable under the SAVE Act for a variety of reasons, including socioeconomic factors.

    As of now, at least 9% of voting-age American citizens – approximately 21 million people – do not have even have driver’s licenses, let alone proof of citizenship. In spite of this, many legislators support the bill as a means of eliminating noncitizen voting in elections.

    As a legal scholar who studies, among other things, foreign interference in elections, I find considerations about the potential effects of the SAVE Act important, especially given how rare it is that a noncitizen actually votes in federal elections.

    Yet, it is equally crucial to consider a more fundamental question: is the SAVE Act even constitutional?

    Voters cast their ballot in Charlotte, N.C., on Nov. 5, 2024.
    Peter Zay/Anadolu via Getty Images

    How the SAVE Act could change voting requirements

    The SAVE Act would forbid state election officials from registering an individual to vote in federal elections unless this person “provides documentary proof of United States citizenship.”

    Acceptable forms of proof for registration would include REAL ID, a U.S. passport or a U.S. military identification card. A regular driver’s license alone would not be enough unless it shows the applicant was born in the U.S., or if it is accompanied with a birth certificate or naturalization certificate.

    So, should the SAVE Act become law, if a person turns 18 or moves between states and wishes to register to vote in federal elections in their new home, they would likely be turned away if they do not have any such documents readily available. At best, they could still fill out a registration form, but would need to mail in acceptable proof of citizenship.

    For married people with changed last names, among others, questions remain about whether birth certificates could even count as acceptable proof of citizenship for them.

    The Constitution says little about voting rights

    Despite the national conversation the SAVE Act has sparked, it is unclear whether Congress even has the power to enact it. This is the key constitutional question.

    The U.S. Constitution imposes no citizenship requirement when it comes to voting. The original text of the Constitution, in fact, said very little about the right to vote. It was not until legislators passed subsequent amendments, starting after the Civil War up through the 1970s, that the Constitution even explicitly prohibited voting laws that discriminate on account of race, sex or age.

    Aside from these amendments, the Constitution is largely silent about who gets to vote.

    Who, then, gets to decide whether someone is qualified to vote? No matter the election, the answer is always the same – the states.

    Indeed, by constitutional design, the states are tasked with setting voter-eligibility requirements – a product of our federalist system. For state and local elections, the 10th Amendment grants states the power to regulate their internal elections as they see fit.

    States also get to decide who may vote in federal elections, which include both presidential and congressional elections.

    When it comes to presidential elections, for instance, states have – as I have previously written – exclusive power under the Constitution’s Electors Clause to decide how to conduct presidential elections within their borders, including who gets to vote in them.

    The states wield similar authority for congressional elections. Namely, according to Article I of the Constitution and the Constitution’s 17th Amendment, if someone can vote in their state’s legislative elections, they are entitled to vote in its congressional elections, too.

    Conversely, the Constitution provides Congress zero authority to govern voter-eligibility requirements in federal elections. Indeed, in the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2013 ruling on the Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council case, the court asserted that nothing in the Constitution “lends itself to the view that voting qualifications in federal elections are to be set by Congress.”

    Is the SAVE Act constitutional?

    The SAVE Act presents a constitutional dilemma. By requiring individuals to show documentary proof of U.S. citizenship to register for federal elections, the SAVE Act is implicitly saying that someone must be a U.S. citizen to vote in federal elections.

    In other words, Congress would be instituting a qualification to vote, a power that the Constitution leaves exclusively to the states.

    Indeed, while all states currently limit voting rights to citizens, legal noncitizen voting is not without precedent. As multiple scholars have noted, at least 19 states extended voting rights to free male “inhabitants,” including noncitizens, starting from our country’s founding up to and throughout the 19th century.

    Today, over 20 municipalities across the country, as well as the District of Columbia, allow permanent noncitizen residents to vote in local elections.

    Any state these days could similarly extend the right to vote in state and federal elections to permanent noncitizen residents. This is within their constitutional prerogative. And if this were to happen, there could be a conflict between that state’s voter-eligibility laws and the SAVE Act.

    Normally, when state and federal laws conflict, the Constitution’s Supremacy Clause mandates that federal law prevails.

    Yet, in this instance, where Congress has no actual authority to implement voter qualifications, the SAVE Act would seem to have no constitutional leg on which to stand.

    Reconciling the SAVE Act with the Constitution

    So, why have 108 U.S. representatives sponsored a bill that likely exceeds Congress’s powers?

    Politics, of course, plays some role here. Namely, noncitizen voting is a major concern among Republican politicians and voters. Every SAVE Act cosponsor is Republican, as were all but four of the 220 U.S. representatives who voted to pass it.

    When it comes to the constitutionality of the SAVE Act, though, proponents simply assert that Congress is acting within its purview.

    Specifically, many proponents have cited the Constitution’s Elections Clause, which gives Congress the power to regulate the “Times, Places and Manner” of congressional elections, as support for that assertion. Sen. Mike Lee, for example, explicitly referenced the Elections Clause when defending the SAVE Act earlier in 2025.

    But the Elections Clause only grants Congress authority to regulate election procedures, not voter qualifications. The Supreme Court explicitly stated this in the Inter Tribal Council ruling.

    Congress can, for instance, require states to adopt a uniform federal voter registration form, and even include a citizenship question on said form. What it cannot do, however, is implement a non-negotiable mandate that effectively tells the states they can never allow any noncitizen to vote in a federal election.

    For now, the SAVE Act is simply legislation. Should the Senate pass it, President Donald Trump will almost assuredly sign it into law, given, among other factors, his March 2025 executive order that says prospective voters need to show proof of citizenship before they register to vote in federal elections. Once that happens, the courts will have to reckon with the SAVE Act’s legitimacy within the country’s constitutional design.

    John J. Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Citizenship voting requirement in SAVE Act has no basis in the Constitution – and ignores precedent that only states decide who gets to vote – https://theconversation.com/citizenship-voting-requirement-in-save-act-has-no-basis-in-the-constitution-and-ignores-precedent-that-only-states-decide-who-gets-to-vote-252792

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: AI-generated images can exploit how your mind works − here’s why they fool you and how to spot them

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Arryn Robbins, Assistant Professor of Psychology, University of Richmond

    A beautiful kitchen to scroll past – but check out the clock. Tiny Homes via Facebook

    I’m more of a scroller than a poster on social media. Like many people, I wind down at the end of the day with a scroll binge, taking in videos of Italian grandmothers making pasta or baby pygmy hippos frolicking.

    For a while, my feed was filled with immaculately designed tiny homes, fueling my desire for minimalist paradise. Then, I started seeing AI-generated images; many contained obvious errors such as staircases to nowhere or sinks within sinks. Yet, commenters rarely pointed them out, instead admiring the aesthetic.

    These images were clearly AI-generated and didn’t depict reality. Did people just not notice? Not care?

    As a cognitive psychologist, I’d guess “yes” and “yes.” My expertise is in how people process and use visual information. I primarily investigate how people look for objects and information visually, from the mundane searches of daily life, such as trying to find a dropped earring, to more critical searches, like those conducted by radiologists or search-and-rescue teams.

    With my understanding of how people process images and notice − or don’t notice − detail, it’s not surprising to me that people aren’t tuning in to the fact that many images are AI-generated.

    We’ve been here before

    The struggle to detect AI-generated images mirrors past detection challenges such as spotting photoshopped images or computer-generated images in movies.

    But there’s a key difference: Photo editing and CGI require intentional design by artists, while AI images are generated by algorithms trained on datasets, often without human oversight. The lack of oversight can lead to imperfections or inconsistencies that can feel unnatural, such as the unrealistic physics or lack of consistency between frames that characterize what’s sometimes called “AI slop.”

    Despite these differences, studies show people struggle to distinguish real images from synthetic ones, regardless of origin. Even when explicitly asked to identify images as real, synthetic or AI-generated, accuracy hovers near the level of chance, meaning people did only a little better than if they’d just guessed.

    In everyday interactions, where you aren’t actively scrutinizing images, your ability to detect synthetic content might even be weaker.

    Attention shapes what you see, what you miss

    Spotting errors in AI images requires noticing small details, but the human visual system isn’t wired for that when you’re casually scrolling. Instead, while online, people take in the gist of what they’re viewing and can overlook subtle inconsistencies.

    Visual attention operates like a zoom lens: You scan broadly to get an overview of your environment or phone screen, but fine details require focused effort. Human perceptual systems evolved to quickly assess environments for any threats to survival, with sensitivity to sudden changes − such as a quick-moving predator − sacrificing precision for speed of detection.

    This speed-accuracy trade-off allows for rapid, efficient processing, which helped early humans survive in natural settings. But it’s a mismatch with modern tasks such as scrolling through devices, where small mistakes or unusual details in AI-generated images can easily go unnoticed.

    People also miss things they aren’t actively paying attention to or looking for. Psychologists call this inattentional blindness: Focusing on one task causes you to overlook other details, even obvious ones. In the famous invisible gorilla study, participants asked to count basketball passes in a video failed to notice someone in a gorilla suit walking through the middle of the scene.

    If you’re counting how many passes the people in white make, do you even notice someone walk through in a gorilla suit?

    Similarly, when your focus is on the broader content of an AI image, such as a cozy tiny home, you’re less likely to notice subtle distortions. In a way, the sixth finger in an AI image is today’s invisible gorilla − hiding in plain sight because you’re not looking for it.

    Efficiency over accuracy in thinking

    Our cognitive limitations go beyond visual perception. Human thinking uses two types of processing: fast, intuitive thinking based on mental shortcuts, and slower, analytical thinking that requires effort. When scrolling, our fast system likely dominates, leading us to accept images at face value.

    Adding to this issue is the tendency to seek information that confirms your beliefs or reject information that goes against them. This means AI-generated images are more likely to slip by you when they align with your expectations or worldviews. If an AI-generated image of a basketball player making an impossible shot jibes with a fan’s excitement, they might accept it, even if something feels exaggerated.

    While not a big deal for tiny home aesthetics, these issues become concerning when AI-generated images may be used to influence public opinion. For example, research shows that people tend to assume images are relevant to accompanying text. Even when the images provide no actual evidence, they make people more likely to accept the text’s claims as true.

    Misleading real or generated images can make false claims seem more believable and even cause people to misremember real events. AI-generated images have the power to shape opinions and spread misinformation in ways that are difficult to counter.

    Beating the machine

    While AI gets better at detecting AI, humans need tools to do the same. Here’s how:

    1. Trust your gut. If something feels off, it probably is. Your brain expertly recognizes objects and faces, even under varying conditions. Perhaps you’ve experienced what psychologists call the uncanny valley and felt unease with certain humanoid faces. This experience shows people can detect anomalies, even when they can’t fully explain what’s wrong.
    2. Scan for clues. AI struggles with certain elements: hands, text, reflections, lighting inconsistencies and unnatural textures. If an image seems suspicious, take a closer look.
    3. Think critically. Sometimes, AI generates photorealistic images with impossible scenarios. If you see a political figure casually surprising baristas or a celebrity eating concrete, ask yourself: Does this make sense? If not, it’s probably fake.
    4. Check the source. Is the poster a real person? Reverse image search can help trace a picture’s origin. If the metadata is missing, it might be generated by AI.

    AI-generated images are becoming harder to spot. During scrolling, the brain processes visuals quickly, not critically, making it easy to miss details that reveal a fake. As technology advances, slow down, look closer and think critically.

    Arryn Robbins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. AI-generated images can exploit how your mind works − here’s why they fool you and how to spot them – https://theconversation.com/ai-generated-images-can-exploit-how-your-mind-works-heres-why-they-fool-you-and-how-to-spot-them-246867

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tiny cut marks on animal bone fossils reveal that human ancestors were in Romania 1.95 million years ago

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Briana Pobiner, Research Scientist and Museum Educator, Smithsonian Institution

    Several fossils with possible cut marks from Grăunceanu, Romania. Briana Pobiner

    Looking again through the magnifying lens at the fossil’s surface, one of us, Sabrina Curran, took a deep breath. Illuminated by a strong light positioned nearly parallel to the surface of the bone, the V-shaped lines were clearly there on the fossil. There was no mistaking what they meant.

    She’d seen them before, on bones that were butchered with stone tools about 1.8 million years ago, from a site called Dmanisi in Georgia. These were cut marks made by a human ancestor wielding a stone tool. After staring at them for what felt like an eternity − but was probably only a few seconds − she turned to our colleagues and said, “Hey … I think I found something.”

    What she’d spotted in 2017 was our team’s first evidence that hominins butchered several animals at the site of Grăunceanu, in Romania, at least 1.95 million years ago. Before this discovery, those other cut marks from Dmanisi were the oldest well-dated evidence in Eurasia of the presence of hominins − our direct human ancestors.

    Other scientists have reported sites in Eurasia and northern Africa with either hominin fossils, stone tools or butchered animal bones from around this time. Our recently published research adds to this story with well-dated, verified evidence that hominins of some kind had spread to this part of the world by around 2 million years ago.

    Romanian site with fossilized animal bones

    A 1960s photo of fossil bones before they were excavated from the ground at Grăunceanu, Romania.
    Emil Racoviță Institute of Speleology

    A little background on Grăunceanu: This open-air site was originally excavated in the 1960s, and researchers found thousands of fossil animal bones there. It’s one of the best-known Early Pleistocene sites in East-Central Europe. Many of the fossil animal bones are quite complete and at the time of excavation lay together as they were positioned in life. The original deposition was called a “bone nest” because of how densely packed the bones were.

    If you were to stand on the hillside surrounding Grăunceanu almost 2 million years ago, it would likely have seemed familiar: a river channel surrounded by a forest that fades into more open grasslands to the foothills. Occasionally that river floods its banks, inundating the valley with rich soils, providing nutrients for the plants that the resident animals feed on. All pretty familiar, until you look more closely at those animals: ostriches, pangolins, giraffes, saber-toothed cats and hyenas − in Europe!

    It’s the fossil bones of these ancient animal inhabitants that were excavated at Grăunceanu. Unfortunately, most of the excavation records and provenance data for the site have been lost. Even without those, though, the Grăunceanu fossils are so remarkably preserved that they offer up a wealth of paleontological information.

    A few years after finding those first cut marks, our team, including biological anthropologist Claire Terhune, zooarchaeologist Samantha Gogol, and paleoanthropologist Chris Robinson, spent several weeks carefully studying all 4,524 Grăunceanu fossils, looking for more marks.

    We examined all surfaces of every fossil bone with a magnifying lens and low-angled light. Most of these fossils have root etching on them − sinuous, shallow, overlapping marks made by plant roots that grew nearby. But whenever we saw a linear mark that looked interesting, we took an impression of that mark with dental molding material.

    Briana Pobiner and Claire Terhune take molds of marks of interest on Grăunceanu fossils.
    Sabrina Curran

    Confirming they’re cut marks

    We can’t go back in a time machine to watch when these marks were made. Yes, ancient human butchers wielding stone tools would leave marks on bone. But mammalian predators or crocodiles could also leave marks with their sharp teeth. Sediments in rivers could scratch any bones rolling around in the water. Large animals walking across the landscape could move and scrape bones with their steps.

    So how can we be confident that they’re cut marks? That’s where our zooarchaeologist collaborators Michael Pante and Trevor Keevil came in.

    Close-up of a cut-marked bone from Grăunceanu, Romania.
    Sabrina Curran

    Within the past decade, Pante developed a novel method for identifying the source of marks left on bones. The first step is capturing precise 3D measurements of the mark impressions using an advanced microscope called a noncontact 3D optical profiler.

    Then they compare the 3D shape data from the ancient marks with a reference set of 898 marks on modern bones made by known processes, including stone tool butchery, carnivore feeding and sedimentary abrasion.

    This new method adds to the more qualitative, descriptive criteria many researchers, including our team, use to make mark identifications. For instance, we consider things such as mark location: Is the mark near a muscle attachment site, where you might expect to find a cut mark if a hominin were removing meat from a bone?

    Based on our analyses, we determined that 20 Grăunceanu fossils are marked by cuts, with eight displaying high-confidence cut marks. Most of those marks are on fossils of hoofed animals, including a few deer; one is a small carnivore leg bone. When we could identify the type of bone, the cut marks are always in anatomical locations consistent with cutting meat off bones.

    Dating the site

    While the fossil species present can give us a rough age estimate of the site, we used uranium-lead (U-Pb) dating to get more precise age information. This technique relies on the fact that naturally occurring uranium decays over long but well-known periods of time to eventually transform into lead. Geologists use the ratio of these two elements like a radiometric clock to determine how old something is.

    When one of us, Virgil Drăgușin, asked geochemist Jon Woodhead to use U-Pb dating to estimate the age of the Grăunceanu fossils based on several small tooth fragments, he was reluctant. Teeth do not usually work well for this dating technique. But he agreed to a test run, and to his surprise the teeth he tried worked very well.

    Together with his colleague John Hellstrom, they calculated a much more precise date for the site. We now know the Grăunceanu site is older than 1.95 million years.

    All of this data together − the very well-calibrated and tightly clustered dates of the specimens plus at least 20 cut-marked bones verified both by qualitative and quantitative methods − provides very reliable evidence that hominins were indeed in Eurasia by at least 1.95 million years ago, even though there are no hominin fossils from Grăunceanu.

    An artist’s reconstruction of the Early Pleistocene landscape around Grăunceanu.
    Emi Olin

    Sometimes when we look through our magnifying lenses, it almost feels like we can peer into the past. That’s impossible − but we can piece together lines of evidence to paint a clearer picture of what happened in the past at Grăunceanu.

    Now, imagining the view 1.95 million years ago, we see scenes of deer cautiously drinking from the river, majestic mammoths in the distance, a herd of horses grazing, a saber-toothed cat stalking a large monkey, a bear teaching her cubs to hunt … and a small group of hominins butchering a deer.

    Briana Pobiner has received funding from the National Science Foundation, the Leakey Foundation, and the Wenner-Gren Foundation.

    Sabrina Curran has received funding from The Leakey Foundation, National Science Foundation, and Ohio University.

    Virgil Drãgușin received funding from CNCS-UEFISCDI (Department of Education, Romanian Government).

    – ref. Tiny cut marks on animal bone fossils reveal that human ancestors were in Romania 1.95 million years ago – https://theconversation.com/tiny-cut-marks-on-animal-bone-fossils-reveal-that-human-ancestors-were-in-romania-1-95-million-years-ago-249838

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Keir Starmer’s psychological profile is different from other prime ministers – and what it means for his dealings with Donald Trump

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Consuelo Thiers, Lecturer in International Relations, University of Edinburgh

    Flickr/10 Downing Street, CC BY-NC-ND

    The question “Who is Keir Starmer?” echoed across headlines before and after he took office in 2024. Despite leading the Labour party for years, his personality, leadership style and core motivations remained something of a mystery. Now in office, that question matters more than ever. In moments of crisis, a national leader’s psychology plays a decisive role.

    The UK faces a difficult foreign policy landscape. Post-Brexit Britain is still rebuilding alliances amid economic strain and Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency has put a more transactional, Russia-friendly approach in the White House. The UK’s balancing act has become even more precarious. Starmer must back Ukraine, strengthen ties with the EU and manage an unpredictable relationship with Trump. For any leader, it’s a high-stakes task.

    Traditional international relations theories often treat states as rational actors, with little attention paid to who is making the decisions. In this view, leaders are interchangeable; internal traits are “black-boxed” and considered irrelevant.

    But political psychology challenges this. Leaders are not all the same. How they perceive and respond to constraints – be they economic, institutional, or geopolitical – varies dramatically.

    Faced with similar conditions, different leaders make different choices. Their decisions are shaped by traits, motivations, emotions and deeply held beliefs.

    Starmer: psychologically different to other PMs

    Political psychology provides tools for assessing leaders by analysing their public statements. Since traditional psychological assessments are rarely feasible, researchers rely on at-a-distance methods, based on the premise that the way leaders speak and the language they use can reveal underlying traits, motivations and beliefs.

    One of the most widely used approaches is leadership trait analysis (LTA), developed by psychologist Margaret Hermann. It employs computational content analysis to systematically code language and produce comparable personality profiles.

    To reduce the influence of speechwriters, the analysis focuses on spontaneous material such as interviews and press conferences. The framework identifies seven core traits that are particularly relevant to foreign policy decision-making.

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    Applying this framework to Starmer’s public appearances since taking office reveals notable differences between his profile and that of the average UK prime minister.

    Of the seven core traits measured by the framework, Starmer scores within the typical range on task orientation, in-group bias, self-confidence, and conceptual complexity. But he stands out in three areas: distrust, belief in his ability to control events, and need for power. In these, he scores significantly above average.

    These traits suggest a leader who is confident in his influence, driven to shape outcomes, and inclined to assert control when faced with obstacles. Leaders high in belief in their ability to control events tend to be proactive and view challenges as manageable. When paired with a high need for power, this reflects a strong drive to steer the political environment, often through strategic manoeuvring and behind-the-scenes influence.

    These leaders test boundaries and thrive in direct, high-stakes negotiations. This combination has been seen in figures like Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair.

    Compared with his most recent predecessors – Rishi Sunak, Liz Truss and Boris Johnson – Starmer shares certain traits but also diverges in meaningful ways. Like Johnson and Sunak, he shows a strong belief in his ability to control political events and a high need for power.

    However, what sets him apart most clearly is his elevated level of distrust, which surpasses even Sunak’s. Research links this trait to risk-prone, uncooperative leadership styles.

    Distrustful leaders often view others as potential threats, are less inclined to compromise, and fall back on control rather than collaboration. It’s a hallmark of hawkish leadership and has been associated with costly policy errors, such as George W. Bush’s misjudgement of Iraq’s weapons capabilities.

    At the same time, Starmer differs from Johnson and Sunak in his greater cognitive complexity. He sees nuance, tolerates ambiguity and avoids black-and-white thinking.

    He appears more open to new information and more flexible in adapting his approach. While Johnson and Sunak were more people-focused and scored low on task orientation, Starmer brings a balanced leadership style, combining interpersonal awareness with a clear focus on results. He can build relationships while staying goal-driven – an essential combination in today’s global landscape.

    Starmer and Trump

    What does this suggest about Starmer’s potential relationship with Trump? While research on leader-to-leader dynamics is still developing, Trump’s leadership profile is well-established.

    He scores high in self-confidence, low in task orientation, places a strong emphasis on loyalty, and shows high levels of distrust. His self-confidence means he rarely seeks disconfirming information, often filtering reality to fit his beliefs.

    His low task focus reflects a preference for group loyalty over detailed policy. Combined with a deep suspicion of others, this results in a transactional, uncompromising leadership style centred on personal allegiance.

    This presents challenges for Starmer, whose high distrust and tendency to defy constraints could complicate efforts to build mutual understanding. Yet his adaptability, pragmatism, and balanced focus on people and tasks, combined with confidence in his ability to shape outcomes, may help him navigate this volatile relationship.

    His assertive style, however, could still surprise or alienate some supporters as he makes bold moves beyond expectations.

    Starmer’s leadership may lack the charisma or flair of his predecessors, but his personality profile reveals a distinct and consequential approach to power. Confident, strategic, and distrustful, he is not a passive figurehead but a leader likely to assert control, challenge limits, and drive his vision.

    When the stakes are this high, Starmer’s psychology may not just influence Britain’s path – it could determine it.

    Consuelo Thiers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Keir Starmer’s psychological profile is different from other prime ministers – and what it means for his dealings with Donald Trump – https://theconversation.com/why-keir-starmers-psychological-profile-is-different-from-other-prime-ministers-and-what-it-means-for-his-dealings-with-donald-trump-254242

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How insects and the smallest animals survive Antarctica

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alex Dittrich, Senior Lecturer in Zoology, Nottingham Trent University

    Ruslan Suseynov/Shutterstock

    In Antarctica’s freezing depths, tiny creatures have mastered survival tactics that could unlock secrets to extreme cold resistance, with implications for science and medicine. Some of the most intense battles against the environment are waged by the smallest of creatures.

    When it’s cold, we, as warm-blooded (endothermic), animals simply put on a coat. Other endotherms, can be large, fat or furry to insulate their body from the cold.

    Generating your own body heat, however, requires a lot of energy. Insects do not do not do this. The heat they need for metabolism and growth comes from the environment. This is partly how they are so abundant around the world. They need less energy to grow compared with warm-blooded animals like mammals and are great at exploiting this advantage.

    Not being able to generate your own body heat is a problem for insects in cold places. They are at the mercy of the environmental temperature and can only grow, develop and feed when it is warm enough. Typically this optimum temperature is around 20°C.

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    Yet some insects survive when temperatures drop below freezing. Generally, when the temperature goes below 0°C this causes damage to animal cells and even death. This cell damage is what causes frostbite.

    Many insects use one of two simple strategies. Freeze tolerance or freeze avoidance.

    For example, they produce cryoprotectants, such as glycerol, which lower their freezing point. This allows the animal to undergo supercooling without freezing. Some generate antifreeze proteins that stop ice crystals from forming in their tissue.

    Mites are common in the Antarctic – there are hundreds of species. Some even live in the nasal cavities of penguins. Penguin noses provide not only a source of food for the mites that feed on the penguins’ dead skin cells, but also a warm environment.

    However, some Antarctic mites, which don’t rely on a host, such as Halozetes belgicae, are freeze-avoiding, using antifreeze compounds to lower the freezing point of their body to well below 0°C.

    One of the smallest land animals in Antarctica are the springtails, related to primitive insects but lacking some of the features we see in modern insects. For example, their mouthparts are internal whereas insects have external mouthparts. One springtail, Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni, can reach a temperature of -38°C before it freezes. It is a small species of only 1-2 millimetres in length but important for the Antarctic soil ecosystem, fulfilling an important function as a decomposer of organic matter.

    The midge species Belgica Antarctica, however, is the only true insect found in Antarctica. It endures many periods of sub-zero temperatures throughout its life and has some unique strategies to deal with the hostile Antarctic climate. This species takes two years to reach adulthood – which in insect time is quite the long while. Some insects such as aphids have multiple generations in a year.

    Belgica Antarctica can tolerate ice crystals forming in its body by minimising the damage they do to tissue. It can also lose water from its body through a semi-permeable outer membrane, removing molecules that could form into ice crystals.

    Perhaps among the most dominant animals in the Antarctic, and indeed anywhere on the planet, are the nematodes. This is a small worm-like animal, that lives in and on top of the soil. Some species like Panagrolaimus davidi can tolerate their body cells freezing. They can also undergo a dormant state called diapause by dehydrating themselves (cryptobiosis), which prevents ice crystals forming in their cells.

    Water bears can wait out the cold for decades.
    Oleh Liubimtsev/Shutterstock

    Another group that uses this method for dealing with the cold Antarctic climate are the tardigrades (also known as water bears). Freezing can extend the life of this animal. In fact, one tardigrade species known as Acutuncus antarcticus was frozen at -20°C and defrosted 30 years later with no ill effects.

    Invertebrates, make up an enormous proportion of all life on earth. There are so many species yet to be discovered, which could help us unlock more secrets to survival in the most extreme environments and how this can benefit humans.

    Freeze tolerance and avoidance strategies, can enhance our knowledge of cryopreservation for medicine and organ transplants, improve food storage, aid climate adaptation and drive innovation in biotechnology and materials science. Studying how these microscopic life forms endure extreme conditions could reveal secrets about the evolution of life on Earth and even offer insights into the future of cryopreservation.

    Alex Dittrich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How insects and the smallest animals survive Antarctica – https://theconversation.com/how-insects-and-the-smallest-animals-survive-antarctica-250314

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US tariffs will squeeze the UK economy. Could the government buy itself some breathing space?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Linda Yueh, Fellow in Economics/Adjunct Professor of Economics, University of Oxford

    William Barton/Shutterstock

    “Iron-clad” and “non-negotiable” is how UK prime minister Keir Starmer recently described the country’s fiscal rules. The government has been coming under pressure to relax the rules and cut itself some financial slack. But according to the PM, these self-imposed restrictions are vital for maintaining UK economic stability.

    What Starmer is referring to is notably the “stability” rule, which says that the UK will balance day-to-day public spending with tax receipts, rather than by borrowing, over the course of the parliament.

    But the volatility unleashed by US president Donald Trump’s tariff plans has challenged this rule. US tariffs could have a significant economic impact on the UK and the world economies.

    Indeed, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that 10% across-the-board tariffs, if they ultimately result in retaliation from China and the EU, could cut global economic growth by 0.5% in 2026.

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    Unsurprisingly, the UK’s independent economic forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), estimates a similar impact on the UK. It predicts that if the trade wars result in 20% tariff rates between the US and the rest of the world, it could reduce economic growth by as much as 1%. This, it says, could slash the expected UK budget surplus in 2029-30 to “almost zero”.

    And herein lies the challenge for the UK’s fiscal rules. Due to the stability rule, a cut to GDP growth would reduce the tax take. That would require either raising taxes or cutting public spending, due to the rule that this cannot be funded by borrowing.

    Fear that the government’s nearly £10 billion spending buffer will disappear by the end of the parliament puts pressure on the government to say how it would continue to stick to its fiscal rule. If it did result in spending cuts or tax rises, this could dampen economic growth and negatively affect people’s lives. And the decisions would have been taken on the basis of economic forecasts that may not come to pass.

    This is particularly true when the forecasts are based on US tariffs that were imposed and then paused in the space of just a week.



    Read more:
    Hopes of a ‘Brexit benefit’ from tariffs were short-lived. Here’s what Trump’s pause means for the UK

    This problem was also evident in the spring statement in March, when the chancellor of the exchequer, Rachel Reeves, announced spending cuts because the GDP growth forecast had been halved from 2% to 1% for this year.

    And the vast swaths of tariffs later announced by US president Donald Trump could have a similar impact on the UK’s growth rate.

    If the UK were to relax or abolish its fiscal rules, that may ease the pressure to react to a potential growth downgrade – which may or may not happen given the volatile nature of the US tariffs announced so far.

    The debt burden

    But the prime minister and the chancellor have both resisted this change. They are concerned about the UK’s credibility in the eyes of its creditors, who buy government debt in the bond markets based on their assessment of the fiscal position of the British government.

    The UK, like other advanced economies, borrows from bond markets to fund its budget deficits. The government is concerned that with a debt-to-GDP ratio of more than 95%, creditors may be reluctant to lend to the UK. To do so, they might want to charge more.

    A higher interest rate on the UK’s national debt would of course reduce the amount available for public spending.

    The UK spends more than £100 billion a year on debt interest payments. This is more than it spends on education or investment.

    The amount increased rapidly in recent years due to the global financial crisis and the COVID pandemic. And, relatively speaking, the UK spends more money on paying interest on its debt than other G7 economies (3.3% of its GDP compared with the G7 average of 1.7% in 2022).

    Part of this is due to the UK having more inflation-linked debt than comparable economies. About one-quarter of the UK’s debt repayment is linked to inflation, which is double that of Italy, the next highest in the G7, at 12%. And, as everyone in the UK has experienced, inflation has been high in the past few years.

    High inflation over the past few years has squeezed consumers – as well as the government.
    Edinburghcitymom/Shutterstock

    This makes the UK particularly susceptible to movements in bond markets. For instance, if the UK’s borrowing costs were to decline by one percentage point, that would save £21 billion over five years. That’s double the current “fiscal headroom” (effectively the government’s spending buffer) that is at risk from US tariffs.

    Without knowing for sure how bond markets would react, it would be challenging for the government to change its fiscal rules. But it’s also challenging to apply the stability rule during times of high volatility like this. Given the unpredictable nature of the US tariff regime, this debate is likely to go on for some time.

    Linda Yueh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US tariffs will squeeze the UK economy. Could the government buy itself some breathing space? – https://theconversation.com/us-tariffs-will-squeeze-the-uk-economy-could-the-government-buy-itself-some-breathing-space-254347

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Two key ingredients cause extreme storms with destructive flooding – why these downpours are happening more often

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of Dayton

    A powerful storm system that stalled over states from Texas to Ohio for several days in early April 2025 wreaked havoc across the region, with deadly tornadoes, mudslides and flooding as rivers rose. More than a foot of rain fell in several areas.

    As a climate scientist who studies the water cycle, I often get questions about how extreme storms like these form and what climate change has to do with it. There’s a recipe for extreme storms, with two key ingredients.

    Recipe for a storm

    The essential conditions for storms to form with heavy downpours are moisture and atmospheric instability.

    First, in order for a storm to develop, the air needs to contain enough moisture. That moisture comes from water evaporating off oceans, lakes and land, and from trees and other plants.

    The amount of moisture the air can hold depends on its temperature. The higher the temperature, the more moisture air can hold, and the greater potential for heavy downpours. This is because at higher temperatures water molecules have more kinetic energy and therefore are more likely to exist in the vapor phase. The maximum amount of moisture possible in the air increases at about 7% per degree Celsius.

    Floodwaters rise in downtown Hopkinsville, Ky., on April 4, 2025.
    AP Photo/George Walker IV

    Warm air also supplies storm systems with more energy. When that vapor starts to condense into water or ice as it cools, it releases large amount of energy, known as latent heat. This additional energy fuels the storm system, leading to stronger winds and greater atmospheric instability.

    That leads us to the second necessary condition for a storm: atmospheric instability.

    Atmospheric instability has two components: rising air and wind shear, which is created as wind speed changes with height. The rising air, or updraft, is essential because air cools as it moves up, and as a result, water vapor condenses to form precipitation.

    As the air cools at high altitudes, it starts to sink, forming a downdraft of cool and dry air on the edge of a storm system.

    When there is little wind shear, the downdraft can suppress the updraft, and the storm system quickly dissipates as it exhausts the local moisture in the air. However, strong wind shear can tilt the storm system, so that the downdraft occurs at a different location, and the updraft of warm moist air can continue, supplying the storm with moisture and energy. This often leads to strong storm systems that can spawn tornadoes.

    Extreme downpours hit the US

    It is precisely a combination of these conditions that caused the prolonged, extensive precipitation that the Midwest and Southern states saw in early April.

    The Midwest is prone to extreme storms, particularly during spring. Spring is a transition time when the cold and dry air mass from the Arctic, which dominates the region in winter, is gradually being pushed away by warm and moist air from the Gulf that dominates the region in summer.

    This clash of air masses creates atmosphere instability at the boundary, where the warm and less dense air is pushed upward above the cold and denser air, creating precipitation.

    The Storm Prediction Center’s one-day convective outlooks from March 30 through April 5, 2025, and the tornado, wind and hail reports over that period reflect the damage when severe storms flooded communities in the Midwest and South.
    National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center

    A cold front forms when a cold air mass pushes away a warm air mass. A warm front forms when the warm air mass pushes to replace the cold air mass. A cold front usually moves faster than a warm front, but the speed is related to the temperature difference between the two air masses.

    The warm conditions before the April storm system reduced the temperature difference between these cold and warm air masses, greatly reducing the speed of the frontal movement and allowing it to stall over states from Texas to Ohio.

    The result was prolonged precipitation and repeated storms. The warm temperatures also led to high moisture content in the air masses, leading to more precipitation. In addition, strong wind shear led to a continuous supply of moisture into the storm systems, causing strong thunderstorms and dozens of tornadoes to form.

    What global warming has to do with storms

    As global temperatures rise, the warming air creates conditions that are more conducive to extreme precipitation.

    The warmer air can mean more moisture, leading to wetter and stronger storms. And since most significant warming occurs near the surface, while the upper atmosphere is cooling, this can increase wind shear and the atmospheric instability that sets the stage for strong storms.

    Polar regions are also warming two to three times as fast as the global average, reducing the temperature gradient between the poles and equator. That can weaken the global winds. Most of the weather systems in the continental U.S. are modulated by the polar jet stream, so a weaker jet stream can slow the movement of storms, creating conditions for prolonged precipitation events.

    All of these create conditions that make extreme storms and flooding much more likely in the future.

    Shuang-Ye Wu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Two key ingredients cause extreme storms with destructive flooding – why these downpours are happening more often – https://theconversation.com/two-key-ingredients-cause-extreme-storms-with-destructive-flooding-why-these-downpours-are-happening-more-often-254123

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: White House plans for Alaskan oil and gas face some hurdles – including from Trump and the petroleum industry

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Scott L. Montgomery, Lecturer in International Studies, University of Washington

    A pumping station and oil pipeline north of Fairbanks, Alaska, are part of the existing fossil fuel industry in the state. AP Photo/Al Grillo

    The second Trump administration has launched the next stage in the half-century-long battle between commerce and conservation over Alaskan oil and gas development. But its moves are delivering a mixed message to the petroleum industry.

    The administration has opened – or reopened – large swaths of government land in Alaska to oil and gas drilling, though only some of those opportunities have drawn much commercial interest in recent years. And an 800-mile pipeline across Alaska that the administration says it supports is not yet funded, and other administration policies risk turning off prospective partners.

    President Donald Trump says he wants to grow oil and gas production and advance the goal of what he calls U.S. “energy dominance.” The White House says that term means both reducing the amount of energy imported from other countries and increasing the amount of energy exported from the U.S., especially to allies.

    The U.S. is already the world’s largest producer and exporter of natural gas as well as the largest producer of crude oil. And the nation’s oil industry boomed under the Biden administration. However, the U.S. does import an average of over 6 million barrels per day of crude oil, most of it from Canada.

    Trump’s efforts seek to boost U.S. production to still greater heights by expanding access to areas for drilling and building related infrastructure. But as a former petroleum geoscientist and industry observer, I would suggest his various actions, taken as a whole, may have more limited effects than he seems to hope.

    Returned to leasing

    In one of his first executive orders after retaking office on Jan. 20, 2025, Trump declared that the U.S. would develop Alaska’s petroleum resources “to the fullest extent possible.”

    The Biden administration had banned oil leasing in three areas of Alaska. One was all but 400,000 acres in the coastal plain portion of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Another was a 13-million-acre swath of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, a massive parcel of federal land west of the refuge. The third area was 44 million acres of the offshore coastal portion of the northern Bering Sea, based on concerns for tribal rights and the migration routes of marine mammals.

    Trump moved quickly to reverse all these bans, describing them as an “assault on Alaska’s sovereignty and its ability to responsibly develop (its) resources for the benefit of the Nation.” And Trump went farther, expanding the available land by an additional 6 million acres in the petroleum reserve and another 1.1 million acres of the wildlife refuge.

    All those areas are home to many different types of wildlife, as well as Indigenous groups.

    Caribou migrate onto the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northeast Alaska.
    U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service via AP

    The view of industry

    For the petroleum industry, I expect these actions are both welcome and irrelevant. Reopening the northeastern portion of the petroleum reserve creates a real opportunity: Exploration has found a significant amount of oil and gas in that area, and indications are that there may be more yet to discover.

    But prospects on the land in the wildlife refuge and the shallow waters of the Bering Sea are not likely of much interest to drilling companies unless oil prices rise significantly from their levels in early 2025. There is no established production in either area at present. And, though the refuge has oil and gas potential, there are no roads or pipelines, and Arctic drilling is especially expensive.

    In fact, the last two attempts by the government to lease oil development rights in the wildlife refuge drew very little interest. In 2020, the first Trump administration teamed with Republicans in Congress to overcome long-standing legal and political opposition to leasing in the refuge. But the 2021 lease sale was a bust, with none of the top oil producers in the state participating.

    A second round of bidding, in January 2025, received no interest at all from oil companies.

    The Trans-Alaska Pipeline runs 800 miles from the North Slope to the port of Valdez, Alaska.
    Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Pipe dreams that could come true

    A strong gain for the petroleum industry would be a major new pipeline to carry natural gas more than 800 miles south from the Prudhoe Bay area on the Arctic coast to a port near Anchorage on south-central Alaska’s Cook Inlet.

    The idea has its own decades-long history, and has been both pushed forward and set back over the years by changing economics, government plans, and tribal interest and opposition.

    The main challenge is that there is no way to transport natural gas off the North Slope. Since drilling began in the late 1970s, some has been used locally for heating and running equipment, with the vast majority being reinjected into oil reservoir rock to help maintain oil production.

    Rising demand and elevated prices in Asia, however, suggest the project could be profitable, despite the current cost estimate of US$44 billion. Project plans indicate most of it would go to build a liquefied natural gas export terminal near Anchorage, with the rest spent to construct an 807-mile pipeline paralleling the existing Trans-Alaska Pipeline, and a plant at Prudhoe Bay that would capture carbon from the atmosphere, compress it and inject it into oil-producing reservoirs to boost production.

    The pipeline is designed to carry 3.3 billion cubic feet of natural gas each day, which would make it one of the largest pipelines in North America. The export terminal, to be built near the town of Nikiski on Cook Inlet, would have a capacity of roughly 1 trillion cubic feet per year, enough to heat about 15 million homes for a year.

    The pipeline could take as little as two to three years to build, but the terminal and carbon-capture plant would take longer – five years or so. The exports from Alaska could go to other ports in the U.S., but they could also fetch higher prices in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and possibly China.

    An artist’s rendering of what a natural gas export terminal would look like on Cook Inlet, near Nikiski, Alaska.
    Alaska Gasline Development Corporation

    A wrench in the works

    Most of the permits needed for the pipeline-and-export-terminal project have been secured by the Alaska Gasline Development Corporation, a company created by the state of Alaska to build the project.

    However, no company or foreign government has yet agreed to foot the bill, and despite the support of the Trump White House, there’s no indication the federal government will do so either.

    The Trump administration has also created a new barrier to the project. Its sweeping tariffs and the resulting trade war crashed prices in the global oil and gas market in early April 2025.

    In addition, uncertainty about the permanence of tariffs or other restrictions on international trade are now widespread and directly affect the oil industry. Lower gas and oil prices and less stability make any project less attractive.

    It’s true that Trump exempted oil and gas from his most recent tariffs. But that matters less than the broader effect the trade war is already having, with analysts projecting it is driving the global economy toward recession. Less economic activity means less demand for oil and gas, and therefore less incentive for companies to drill new wells and build new pipelines.

    To top everything off, the White House slapped heavy tariffs on Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, the very countries that might be inclined to help fund the pipeline project. Even before the trade war, they were hesitant about supporting it. The potential suspension, or reinstatement, or adjustment of tariffs is not likely to help them view the situation as more stable.

    Those who favor oil and gas development in Alaska may be wondering whether the president is truly on their side. It remains to be seen whether their hopes might end up a casualty of White House economic policy.

    Scott L. Montgomery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. White House plans for Alaskan oil and gas face some hurdles – including from Trump and the petroleum industry – https://theconversation.com/white-house-plans-for-alaskan-oil-and-gas-face-some-hurdles-including-from-trump-and-the-petroleum-industry-254040

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Companies will still face pressure to manage for climate change, even as government rolls back US climate policy

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ethan I. Thorpe, Fellow at Private Climate Governance Lab, Vanderbilt University

    Amazon partnered with Dominion Energy to build solar farms in Virginia to power its cloud-computing service. Drew Angerer/Getty Images

    As the federal government moves to eliminate U.S. climate rules, companies still face pressure to be better stewards of the planet from their customers, investors, employees, local communities, lenders, insurers, global trading partners and many states.

    Each of those groups knows it will face increasing costs from rising temperatures and extreme weather if corporations don’t rein in their greenhouse gas emissions.

    Many companies will find that returning to past polluting ways isn’t in their best interest. Over 60% of chief financial officers surveyed by global management firm Kearney in December 2024 signaled that they intended to invest at least 2% of their revenue in sustainability in 2025.

    These companies may maintain a low profile about climate change while the Trump administration is in power, but they have strong financial incentives to continue to reduce their emissions and their own climate risks.

    We study private environmental governance – the ways companies and organizations work outside government to improve the nation’s sustainability and reduce environmental damage. Our work finds that, in this polarized era, addressing climate and sustainability challenges is not just a matter of government action. That’s because a lot of climate and sustainability progress is underway in the private sector.

    Sustainability matters to companies’ bottom lines

    Businesses have used climate and sustainability initiatives for years to make their operations and supply chains more efficient and to reduce their long-term costs.

    When McDonald’s faced public pressure to reduce waste in the late 1980s, the company teamed up with the Environmental Defense Fund to analyze the problem. It was able to reduce its waste by 30% over the following decade, saving the company US$6 million a year. This early risk-taking by McDonald’s opened the door for other environmental groups to help businesses understand how to reduce their environmental impact, including emissions, while boosting the companies’ profitability.

    The shipping company Maersk expects to cut emissions and boost productivity at the same time with better logistics and low-emissions ships like this one, which runs on methanol.
    Axel Heimken/picture alliance via Getty Images

    Maersk, the logistics giant responsible for nearly a quarter of global shipping, has responded to pressure from its corporate customers with a plan to reduce carbon emissions by one-third from 2022 to 2030 and reach net-zero emissions by 2045. It expects the combination of low-emissions vessels and a more efficient delivery network with hubs and shuttles to help meet its climate goals while increasing productivity.

    Companies have also helped drive the expansion of renewable energy, motivated by the competitive economics of renewables and business opportunities. Facebook’s parent company Meta and Google invested nearly $2 billion in projects to provide renewable energy in the Tennessee Valley Authority service area, even though no government required them to do so. And major companies continued
    signing renewable energy power purchase agreements in 2025.

    Microsoft and Amazon are responding to massive new power demand by trying to locate data centers near existing nuclear power plants for cleaner energy supplies.

    Thousands of companies report emissions via private systems

    Another sign of companies’ continuing commitment to sustainability is how many of them measure and report their greenhouse gas emissions even when governments do not require them to do so.

    Nearly 25,000 companies representing two-thirds of total global market capitalization and 85% of the S&P 500 report their emissions to the nonprofit CDP. Disclosing emissions is like keeping a fitness journal with a personal trainer. It helps a company track its progress and plan for future financial and environmental risks. More than 12,500 small- and medium-size companies also disclosed emissions to CDP in 2024.

    Many of these companies were initially motivated by pressure from environmental groups or corporate customers. Today, they have more reason to continue paying attention to emissions.

    California has its own formal reporting requirements designed to encourage companies to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. And other states are considering setting climate disclosure rules. The Trump administration has promised to challenge them, and announced that it also plans to cut federal greenhouse gas reporting standards, but companies will likely still face reporting rules in the future.

    The European Union also approved reporting requirements. It delayed their start date in April 2025 to give companies more time to comply.

    Cleaner supply chains can also be more efficient

    Managing supply chains with climate and environmental risks in mind can also help businesses increase their efficiency and reduce the risk that climate change will disrupt their operations.

    The supply chain is the largest source of the average company’s emissions and may be particularly vulnerable to climate shocks. A storm can easily disrupt vital production or shipping, and droughts or heat waves can damage crops, stop work and increase costs. Companies estimate climate-related supply chain risks at $162 billion, nearly three times the cost of mitigating those risks. Many companies therefore have incentives to reduce emissions and their exposure to related hazards.

    Nearly 80% of the largest companies across seven global economic sectors had set environmental requirements for suppliers within their value chains as of 2023. These requirements include reporting carbon emissions, reducing emissions and using sustainable forestry practices.

    Walmart eliminated 1 billion tons of carbon emissions from its supply chain in less than seven years by sharing its expertise with suppliers and working with them to reduce their emissions. Walmart’s global director of sustainable retail noted in 2024 that the effort made its suppliers more efficient, too.

    Keeping employees and customers happy

    Companies also face pressure from average people − both employees and customers.

    More than two-thirds of Americans support action to address climate change. Even companies that are not consumer-facing need retail customer and employee support. Pro-climate actions have been found to improve employee and customer loyalty.

    The outdoor clothing company Patagonia ranked third out of over 300 brands in a 2024 customer experience survey, in part because of its reputation for sustainable practices. Many of the over 10,000 respondents cited the company’s sustainable practices as the leading reason for their support.

    Many companies also face pressure from lenders and insurers who want to reduce climate risks to their own bottom lines. Dozens of insurers have committed to ending or restricting underwriting for new fossil fuel projects. Others use incentives, such as lower premiums for companies that reduce emissions or invest in climate adaptation.

    Climate change may accelerate the current 5% to 7% annual increase in insured losses, according to estimates from insurer Swiss Re. That has led some insurance leaders to recommend insurance companies take bigger steps to reduce emissions through their investments and policy underwriting.

    Private climate governance can help buy time

    Media attention and interest group advocacy is often focused on government actions, but decisions made in boardrooms and through initiatives with nonprofits have created an important kind of private climate governance.

    As companies respond to their own economic risks and incentives, they help buy time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change until the political system recognizes the financial risks posed to the entire country.

    Zdravka Tzankova receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    Ethan I. Thorpe and Michael Vandenbergh do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Companies will still face pressure to manage for climate change, even as government rolls back US climate policy – https://theconversation.com/companies-will-still-face-pressure-to-manage-for-climate-change-even-as-government-rolls-back-us-climate-policy-251580

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Manuscript sold for €300 is now attributed to Cyrano de Bergerac – but questions remain about the play’s authorship

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alisa van de Haar, Assistant Professor in Historical French Literature, Leiden University

    Cyrano de Bergerac illustrated by Zacharie Heince (circa 1654). Gallica Digital Library/Canva, CC BY-SA

    French researchers recently published an edition of a previously unknown 17th-century French play that they argue could be attributed to the French satirist and dramatist Savinien de Cyrano de Bergerac.

    Bibliophiles and literary historians like myself are rejoicing at this discovery, which sheds new light on 17th-century literary, political and libertine culture. However, questions remain regarding the authorship of the comedy.

    Cyrano de Bergerac is best known as the big-nosed protagonist in a 19th-century eponymous play by Edmond Rostand. Adapted for the screen most recently in 2021, Rostand’s play portrays Cyrano de Bergerac as a flamboyant young man who combines the arts of duelling and poetry and is tormented by love for his cousin, Roxane. It caricatures the real Cyrano, who led a tumultuous life that ended tragically when he was only 35.

    Contrary to what Rostand’s play suggests, historians have argued that Cyrano de Bergerac was homosexual. While he enlisted as a musketeer serving the French king for some time, he quit after suffering several wounds. He is often associated with libertine culture, questioning the core dogmas of Christianity and the moral, sexual and political values of 17th-century France.

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    Cyrano de Bergerac wrote a variety of plays, letters and novels, often in a satirical vein. Few were published during his lifetime and his most famous works, Les États et Empires de la Lune (The States and Empires of the Moon) and a sequel on the Sun, were both published posthumously.

    These novels have been characterised as early forms of science fiction. They describe voyages to the Moon and Sun, where the protagonist encounters utopian societies inspired by some aspects of libertine thought. While Cyrano de Bergerac became the object of ridicule by some contemporaries, others – including the acclaimed French playwright Molière – were inspired by his works.

    The 17th-century manuscript now tentatively attributed to Cyrano de Bergerac was brought to the attention of lead researcher Guy Fontaine by the previous owners, who asked him to determine its possible author.

    However, in 2022, before Fontaine and his research team were able to draw any conclusions, the manuscript was sold at an auction for the low sum of €300 (£257). The auction catalogue attributed it to the minor playwright Gabriel Gilbert.

    But Fontaine and his team later concluded that the attribution to Gilbert was unlikely. According to them, the manuscript, which contains a comedy written out over 70 pages, points in the direction of Cyrano de Bergerac.

    Cyrano, a film based on the Edmond Rostand play Cyrano de Bergerac, was released in 2021.

    The play, entitled L’Art de Persuader (The Art of Persuasion), tells the story of two young men seeking to marry two women, incidentally both named Julie, in a traditional structure in five acts. The play shows an experienced playwright at work, aware of both classical and contemporary models.

    Set against the backdrop of Paris during the political upheavals involving Cardinal Mazarin and the thirty years’ war, the political events described in the play allowed the researchers to situate its creation in the final years of the 1640s or first half of the 1650s. These dates are corroborated by physical evidence. The play is written in a mid-17th-century handwriting style, and watermarks found in the paper were only in use until 1656.

    This timeline corresponds to the the active years of Cyrano de Bergerac, who emerged as a potential author because of the combined presence of a number of elements in the comedy. The play’s references to libertine ideas and Epicurean philosophy, a topic with which Cyrano de Bergerac was familiar, point in his direction.

    L’Art de Persuader’s style, including many Latin influences, and division into acts and scenes bear similarity to Cyrano de Bergerac’s known plays, as does the pairing of its characters, who often appear in duos. The locations mentioned in the play all have some connection to the historical Bergerac – and the author’s most famous theme, the Moon, is also mentioned.

    Reason for caution

    Despite the clear similarities with the style and themes preferred by Cyrano de Bergerac, the researchers remain cautious with their claim – and rightly so. Many of the elements that correspond with his style, such as the pairing of characters, were in fashion in the mid-17th century and can be found in the works of other writers, too.

    No single element connects the play irrefutably to this particular libertine author. An additional problem is that an expert in 17th-century handwriting who was consulted by the research team was unable to definitively match the writing of the manuscript to Cyrano de Bergerac’s.

    The edition of L’Art de Persuader published by the research team will enable other experts of Cyrano de Bergerac to shed their light on the authorship question. But whoever the author is, this play is of interest to literary historians as it provides new insights into the interplay between political history and theatre culture, as well as into libertine writing and the influence of Latin comedy – in particular Plautus – on baroque literature.

    For any bibliophile or historian, finding such an important text at an auction is a dream come true. And though rare, this is not the only major literary find of recent years. Take, for example the handwritten poems by Emily Brontë and the sole surviving copy of an early edition of the Bay Psalm Book, both of which came up for auction in 2021.

    When part of a private collection, however, these materials are difficult for researchers to access. It is therefore all the more valuable when owners contact specialists themselves, which is how Fontaine and his team first learned about this precious French play. For now, their edition is the only way to study this manuscript as, following the auction, it is in private hands.

    Alisa van de Haar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Manuscript sold for €300 is now attributed to Cyrano de Bergerac – but questions remain about the play’s authorship – https://theconversation.com/manuscript-sold-for-300-is-now-attributed-to-cyrano-de-bergerac-but-questions-remain-about-the-plays-authorship-254315

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What lies ahead for South Korea after the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Yoon Walker, PhD Candidate in the School of Languages, Cultures and Linguistics, SOAS, University of London

    South Korea’s constitutional court upheld the parliament’s decision to impeach the country’s suspended president, Yoon Suk Yeol, on April 4. The court stated that, by declaring martial law in December, Yoon had taken actions that were beyond the powers granted by South Korea’s constitution.

    Yoon is also facing criminal charges for allegedly leading an insurrection with the martial law attempt. While the criminal trial is separate from the impeachment, the court’s ruling that the martial law decree was unconstitutional could undermine Yoon’s defence of presidential authority.

    Separate to this charge, Yoon is being investigated for obstructing arrest after his security team blocked attempts by the police to detain him at his residence in January. His security service refused police warrants for search and seizure, citing national security concerns.

    Yoon has been stripped of his presidential rights, including the privilege of staying in the newly built presidential residence in Seoul and being buried at the national cemetery when he passes away.

    South Koreans will now elect a new president. But, in a country beset by deep societal division, the new leader will face an uphill battle to return the nation to stability.

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    Since parliament approved Yoon’s impeachment over 100 days ago, South Korea has been divided between Yoon’s supporters, who see him as the victim of a political establishment that has been overrun by “communists”, and those in favour of his removal. There have been weekly protests from both camps.

    Most conservative politicians from Yoon’s People Power party (PPP) stood by him throughout the political upheaval. But many have started to distance themselves from him now that he has been dismissed, especially as any criminal conviction could be a setback for the party in the upcoming snap election.

    Shortly after the constitutional court’s ruling was delivered, Kwon Young-se, the PPP’s interim leader, issued an official statement declaring that the party “solemnly accepts and humbly respects” the decision. This marked a sharp contrast to the position the party had previously taken during the crisis. Many PPP members had been involved in protests organised by supporters of Yoon.

    The political stance of far-right figures is also changing. Jeon Kwang-hoon, a Protestant pastor at the forefront of the anti-impeachment movement and an advocate for the “right to resist”, has rejected the court’s ruling on Yoon’s impeachment. He has also urged his followers to resist.

    On the other hand, another prominent far-right figure called Jeon Han-gil swiftly changed his stance after the judgment. He expressed his respect for the court’s decision and announced that he would now focus on supporting the upcoming presidential election.

    Electing Yoon’s successor

    With South Korea’s need for a new president confirmed, the date for the snap presidential election has been set for June 3. Both political camps are gearing up for the race.

    Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main opposition Democratic party (DPK), has been Yoon’s most formidable rival. Lee was the DPK’s candidate in the last presidential election in 2022, where he narrowly lost to Yoon by less than 1% of the vote.

    Few others from his party have shown interest in the primary race, including former member of the National Assembly Kim Kyung-soo and the governor of Gyeonggi province, Kim Dong-yeon.

    The situation in the ruling party is more chaotic. With no clear frontrunner, a number of candidates are expected to enter the race.

    These include labour minister Kim Moon-soo, former PPP leader Han Dong-hoon, Daegu mayor Hong Joon-pyo, and Ahn Cheol-soo, a politician who made his name in the tech industry. Experts predict there could be ten candidates in the ruling party’s primary.

    South Korea’s polarisation across political, social, gender and generational lines has intensified in recent years. Lee Jae-myung was even stabbed in the neck in 2024 by a man hoping to prevent him from “becoming president”, resulting in Lee undergoing emergency surgery.

    This division has become even more pronounced since Yoon’s declaration of martial law, with tensions spilling over online and on the streets. The crisis has provided both ends of the political spectrum with an opportunity to solidify their positions, further entrenching this divide.

    During the street protests following the martial law decree, the majority of women in their 20s and 30s took the lead in advocating for Yoon’s impeachment, while many men in the same age group rallied against it.

    As South Korea prepares to elect its next leader, the urgency of uniting a deeply fractured society has never been greater. National unity has long been a central goal for South Korean political leaders, but heightened social divisions are threatening the country’s wellbeing.

    This is being compounded by a range of other pressing issues, including the world’s lowest birth rate, a high suicide rate and soaring housing prices. These paint a sobering picture of the challenges ahead.

    Yoon Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What lies ahead for South Korea after the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol? – https://theconversation.com/what-lies-ahead-for-south-korea-after-the-impeachment-of-president-yoon-suk-yeol-254082

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sudan’s war isn’t nearly over – armed civilian groups are rising

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Mohamed Saad, Researcher, Charles University

    Sudan’s war, now entering its third year, has taken another unexpected turn. In March 2025, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), also known as the Janjaweed, withdrew from Khartoum, abandoning the presidential palace and airport.

    This retreat marks a significant contrast to the paramilitary group’s earlier victory when troops stormed the capital in April 2023.

    The fall of Khartoum is a turning point. But, based on my research into Sudan’s political turmoil over the past three decades, I don’t believe recent developments mark the war’s final chapter.

    What began as a power struggle between two military factions is now transforming into a much wider conflict, marked by deepening fragmentation and the rise of armed civilian groups. Across the country, new militias are emerging, many formed by civilians who once had no part in the war.

    The army encouraged civilians to fight, but now it faces a growing number of independent armed groups. In cities and rural areas alike, civilians have taken up arms.

    Some are fighting alongside the army, answering calls from the military leadership, including army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, to defend their neighbourhoods and families. Others have formed self-defence units to protect against looting and violence. Some have joined breakaway militias that have their own agendas.

    These groups don’t share a single goal. Some fight for self-defence, others for political power. Some for revenue and wealth. Others are seeking ethnic control – Sudan’s population has 56 ethnic groups and 595 sub-ethnic groups. This is what makes Sudan’s war even more dangerous: fragmentation is creating multiple mini-wars within the larger conflict.

    How the Rapid Support Forces lost Khartoum

    Several key factors forced the RSF to retreat from Khartoum after it claimed control of the Sudanese capital city two years earlier.

    • Internal fractures: The RSF, built on tribal loyalty, struggled to hold together as the war dragged on. Many factions felt sidelined by its leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.

    • Civilian resistance: The RSF’s reliance on brutality backfired, alienating even those who might have supported them. Instead of consolidating control, they turned civilians into enemies. The RSF relied on terror – looting, mass killings and sexual violence. Instead of gaining control, they provoked fierce resistance. Armed civilians, originally taking up arms in self-defence, have become an informal militia network working against the RSF.

    • Foreign intervention: Reports suggest Egyptian airstrikes and tactical support helped the army take Khartoum. Additionally, Turkish-made Bayraktar drones weakened RSF positions. With supply lines cut, the RSF had no choice but to retreat.

    Khartoum was not just a battlefield defeat for the RSF. It was a turning point in how the war is fought – it’s no longer a military struggle but a battle involving armed civilians across Sudan.

    Based on reports from humanitarian organisations, conflict monitors and local testimonies, a clearer picture has emerged of a growing number of armed groups operating across Sudan. These groups have formed in response to the escalating conflict.

    Recent analyses highlight that arms trafficking and intensified community mobilisation have accelerated within the past two years.



    Read more:
    Omar al-Bashir brutalised Sudan – how his 30-year legacy is playing out today

    Neighbourhood defence units have emerged in urban areas like El-Gezira in central Sudan, El-Fasher in North Darfur, Al-Dalang in South Kordofan, El-Obeid in North Kordofan, Babanusa in West Kordofan and Khartoum. They were initially formed to protect residential zones from the RSF but have since expanded their roles and increasingly operate outside the oversight of the army.

    Tribal and regional militias have also become more prominent, particularly in Darfur and Kordofan. In these regions, entrenched ethnic and political rivalries have intertwined with the current war. Some of these militia groups have aligned with the army. Others remain independent, pursuing their own agendas, which include securing territory.

    In Darfur, growing anger at Hemedti’s favouritism towards his own tribe (Rizeigat) led to defections. Internal divisions within the RSF have played a major role in its recent losses. Some former RSF fighters have formed their own militias. The RSF was never a unified force, but a tribal alliance dominated by the Dagalo family and Rizeigat elites. Initially, gold revenues secured loyalty, but as the war has dragged on, internal fractures have deepened.

    Another ethnic-linked group is the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North. It has expanded its control in Kordofan and Blue Nile, two resource-rich regions in southern Sudan. The group allied with the RSF to push its own agenda, which includes securing greater autonomy for these regions and promoting a secular political framework that challenges Khartoum’s Islamist-leaning governance. Other ethnic militias also operate in eastern Sudan, supported by neighbouring countries such as Eritrea, further escalating the situation.

    Islamist-linked militias are also on the rise. The main example of these groups is El Baraa Ibn Malik Brigade, which emerged as a key player supporting the army against the RSF. Reports link the group to remnants of the Omar al-Bashir regime (1993-2019) – the dissolved Popular Defence Forces. This was a paramilitary group established in the mid-1980s to defend Arab tribes and support the military. It flourished under the al-Bashir regime.

    What next?

    While the RSF’s retreat from Khartoum is a major victory for the Sudanese army, it doesn’t mean stability is returning. Instead, Sudan is now facing a dangerous new reality: the rise of civilian militarisation.

    If not reined in, these groups could evolve and establish de facto warlord-run territories where local commanders wield unchecked power. This would undermine any prospects for centralised governance in Sudan.



    Read more:
    Sudan is burning and foreign powers are benefiting – what’s in it for the UAE

    With militias multiplying and no clear political solution, Sudan risks becoming a battlefield of warring factions.

    Meanwhile, international mediators are struggling to find a solution while foreign interference continues. The United Arab Emirates, a major RSF backer, still supports Hemedti financially, ensuring he remains active in Sudan’s gold trade.

    Mohamed Saad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sudan’s war isn’t nearly over – armed civilian groups are rising – https://theconversation.com/sudans-war-isnt-nearly-over-armed-civilian-groups-are-rising-254100

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Election Diary: Labor breaks practice of preferencing Greens to protect Jewish MP Josh Burns

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    It takes a bit for Labor not to preference the Greens but on Friday it was announced that in the Melbourne seat of Macnamara, where Jewish MP Josh Burns is embattled, the ALP will run an open ticket.

    Macnamara, which includes the suburbs of Balaclava, Albert Park and South Melbourne, has the second largest Jewish constituency – 10% of voters – of any electorate. Only Wentworth in Sydney has more.

    Burns has held the seat since 2019. At the last election he had a primary vote of 31.77%, with the Greens second on 29.65%, just ahead of the Liberals on 29%. After preferences were distributed, this turned into a substantial two-party win for him over the Liberals.

    The political dynamics have changed since then. There is anger in the Jewish community about the Albanese government’s attitude to Israel and criticism that it hasn’t done enough to combat antisemitism. The expectation is that Burns’ primary vote will go down and the Liberal vote will go up.

    ABC election analyst Antony Green says the seat “will be a battle for the order of exclusion” – it will all depend on who comes in third on primary votes.

    If the Liberals or the Greens come third, Burns will be elected. If Burns is third on primaries, he is eliminated and the Greens are favorite, even with an open ticket. But the leakage of preferences from an open ticket would give an opportunity to the Liberals, Green says.

    Green points out that given how close the three parties were on primaries last election, a very small shift in votes could change the order of the top three.

    Burns has benefitted from the Friday draw for order on the ballot paper. He is in the top spot, giving him the so-called “donkey vote”, with the Greens third, ahead of the Liberals.

    Burns warned an election forum this week, sponsored by the Australian Jewish News and various Jewish groups, “If we do not win enough number one votes, then the Greens will obviously come into second place. That is the biggest concern that I’ve got.”

    He dismissed the prospects of the Liberals being able to win the seat. “The only people who can win this seat from me are the Greens.”

    He told the audience, “If the Greens form into the top two, then think about the people who make up this electorate – the young progressive people from Elwood, from St Kilda, from Windsor, from South Melbourne, from South Bank.

    “We are a proud and large Jewish community, but we’re only 10% of the electorate of Macnamara.

    “The preferences, regardless of what the Labor Party says, are not going to the Liberal Party from those young people.”

    Burns faced some heckling from a small number of people in the audience – they were told to be quiet by other audience members.

    The forum was attended by Liberal candidate Benson Saulo, who recounted his Indigenous heritage, and strongly condemned the scenes at the pro-Palestinian rally outside the Sydney Opera House in the wake of the October 7 2023 Hamas attacks in Israel.

    The Greens candidate was not invited onto the panel but was in the audience.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Election Diary: Labor breaks practice of preferencing Greens to protect Jewish MP Josh Burns – https://theconversation.com/election-diary-labor-breaks-practice-of-preferencing-greens-to-protect-jewish-mp-josh-burns-254202

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: South Africa’s coalition government is crumbling: why collapse would carry a heavy cost

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Vinothan Naidoo, Associate Professor of Public Policy and Administration, University of Cape Town

    South Africa’s multi-party government of national unity (GNU), which emerged in the wake of the May 2024 elections, marked a turning point in the country’s political history. It took South Africans back to the 1990s, when the country showed that political opponents could find common cause.

    The formation of the government of national unity expressed the hope that the country could do it again.

    But just nine months into its term, the good will and pragmatism which marked its formation have worn thin. A major budget impasse between the two major actors, the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA), threatens the coalition.

    South Africans have long been accustomed to viewing the world of politics, governance and bureaucracy through the lens of a top-down “strong” state – a vicious apartheid state, an East Asia style developmental state, or a collusive “predatory state”.

    But as recent analyses we co-authored with others have detailed,
    the vision of a top-down politically cohesive state no longer fits South Africa’s realities.

    The government of national unity promised the hope that the country was embracing an approach that is key to success for almost all inclusive constitutional democracies. That is – abandon “all or nothing” confrontation, and instead pursue pragmatic bargains to achieve mutually agreeable policy outcomes.

    At the most basic level, the government of national unity achieved this, at least for a while. The sharing of cabinet ministries between multiple parties created a diverse platform for executive power-sharing that was not dictated by a single dominant party, and which prevented the risks of parties building institutional fiefdoms.

    In our view, failure to overcome deeply ingrained political differences could set off a downward spiral in the country.

    Achievements on the governance front

    On governance, the government of national unity created the space to pursue two sets of gains.

    The first comprises the potential benefit of bringing together unlikely bedfellows.

    The former opposition parties brought into a power-sharing arrangement were bound to be performance-driven, given the country’s long deteriorating government performance and ethical integrity. They had made “good governance” and criticism of the ANC central to their political brands.

    New “outsider” eyes brought into formerly cloistered and factionalised ANC-run departments created the possibility of a new urgency to perform.

    It’s too soon to tell whether this is happening, but anecdotal evidence suggests there are some green shoots.

    The second governance gain comprises the crucial task of building a capable and professional state bureaucracy. The challenges include being able to pay the public sector wage bill, fostering a culture of delivery, and consolidating the bloated network of government departments.

    Based on their party manifestos and public utterances, members of the government all aim to professionalise the public service.

    Detailed technical work is already happening on issues such as training and competency assessment, transferring powers of appointment from politicians to senior public servants, and instituting checks in the recruitment and selection process. The National Assembly’s recent adoption of the Public Service Commission Bill forms part of this agenda.

    But a prolonged legal dispute between the DA and ANC over the latter’s policy of “deploying” party members into state employment risks scuppering progress. It also leaves a key question unanswered: what role, if any, should political parties have in the recruitment and selection of public servants?

    Policy

    The government of national unity has struggled to create effective mechanisms to translate agreement on a broad agenda of policy priorities into specific outcomes. This came at a higher cost than expected.

    Still, it has made gains in challenging policy areas. These gains have repeatedly been undermined by the perverse determination of sections within both the ANC and the DA to engage in brinkmanship.

    On health, both parties agree on the principle of universalising access. They differ on how to achieve this. But at least one seemingly intractable sticking point has been resolved. Both sides agree that private medical aid schemes need to be retained as part of a broader strategy of pursuing health system reform.

    On basic education, the public spat over the Basic Education Laws Amendment Bill overshadows the potential to agree on balancing the autonomy of school governing bodies with the oversight role of provincial departments.



    Read more:
    South Africa has a new education law: some love it, some hate it – education expert explains why

    On land expropriation, the emotive rhetoric which followed the signing of the Expropriation Bill and the unwelcome and toxic intervention of international actors has overshadowed technical concerns which can be resolved.

    On pro-growth policies: Operation Vulindlela, a joint Presidency and National Treasury initiative to unblock constraints in targeted economic sectors, has made significant strides. It has laid the groundwork for new rounds of growth-supporting infrastructural reforms and has the potential to build cohesion in the government of national unity. However, the DA’s attempt to lobby for a greater role in the strategic oversight of Operation Vulindlela in exchange for supporting the budget risks souring relations with the ANC.

    What now?

    A thriving inclusive society depends on powerful actors visibly committed to co-operation.

    For all of the challenges confronting the government of national unity, it was built on a foundation of pragmatism. For the sake of South Africa’s future, it remains vital to build on this foundation. Obsolete top-down governing approaches must go. Pathways to performance must be lifted above political grandstanding. Constructive solutions should supersede ideological rigidity. South Africa has done it before. It can do it again.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. South Africa’s coalition government is crumbling: why collapse would carry a heavy cost – https://theconversation.com/south-africas-coalition-government-is-crumbling-why-collapse-would-carry-a-heavy-cost-254302

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Delusional’ Treaty Principles Bill scrapped but fight for Te Tiriti just beginning, say lawyers and advocates

    By Layla Bailey-McDowell, RNZ Māori news journalist

    Legal experts and Māori advocates say the fight to protect Te Tiriti is only just beginning — as the controversial Treaty Principles Bill is officially killed in Parliament.

    The bill — which seeks to redefine the principles of Te Tiriti o Waitangi — sparked a nationwide hīkoi and received more than 300,000 written submissions — with 90 percent of submitters opposing it.

    Parliament confirmed the voting down of the bill yesterday, with only ACT supporting it proceeding further.

    The ayes were 11, and the noes 112.

    Social media posts by lawyer Riana Te Ngahue (Ngāti Porou), explaining some of the complexities involved in issues such as the Treaty Principles Bill, have been popular. Image: RNZ/Layla Bailey-McDowell

    Riana Te Ngahue, a young Māori lawyer whose bite-sized breakdowns of complex issues — like the Treaty Principles Bill — went viral on social media, said she was glad the bill was finally gone.

    “It’s just frustrating that we’ve had to put so much time and energy into something that’s such a huge waste of time and money. I’m glad it’s over, but also disappointed because there are so many other harmful bills coming through — in the environment space, Oranga Tamariki, and others.”

    Most New Zealanders not divided
     Te Ngahue said the Justice Committee’s report — which showed 90 percent of submitters opposed the bill, 8 percent supported it, and 2 percent were unstated in their position — proved that most New Zealanders did not feel divided about Te Tiriti.

    “If David Seymour was right in saying that New Zealanders feel divided about this issue, then we would’ve seen significantly more submissions supporting his bill.

    “He seemed pretty delusional to keep pushing the idea that New Zealanders were behind him, because if that was true, he would’ve got a lot more support.”

    However, Te Ngahue said it was “wicked” to see such overwhelming opposition.

    “Especially because I know for a lot of people, this was their first time ever submitting on a bill. That’s what I think is really exciting.”

    She said it was humbling to know her content helped people feel confident enough to participate in the process.

    “I really didn’t expect that many people to watch my video, let alone actually find it helpful. I’m still blown away by people who say they only submitted because of it — that it showed them how.”

    Te Ngahue said while the bill was made to be divisive there had been “a huge silver lining”.

    “Because a lot of people have actually made the effort to get clued up on the Treaty of Waitangi, whereas before they might not have bothered because, you know, nothing was really that in your face about it.”

    “There’s a big wave of people going ‘I actually wanna get clued up on [Te Tiriti],’ which is really cool.”

    ‘Fight isn’t over’
     Māori lawyer Tania Waikato, whose own journey into social media advocacy empowered many first-time submitters, said she was in an “excited and celebratory” mood.

    “We all had a bit of a crappy summer holiday because of the Treaty Principles Bill and the Regulatory Standards Bill both being released for consultation at the same time. A lot of us were trying to fit advocacy around summer holidays and looking after our tamariki, so this feels like a nice payoff for all the hard mahi that went in.”

    Tania Waikato, who has more than 20 years of legal experience, launched a petition calling for the government to cancel Compass Group’s school lunch contract and reinstate its contract with local providers. Image: Tania Waikato/RNZ

    She said the “overwhelming opposition” sent a powerful message.

    “I think it’s a clear message that Aotearoa as a whole sees Te Tiriti as part of this country’s constitutional foundation. You can’t just come in and change that on a whim, like David Seymour and the ACT Party have tried to do.

    “Ninety percent of people who got off their butt and made a submission have clearly rejected the divisive and racist rhetoric that party has pushed.”

    Despite the win, she said the fight was far from over.

    “If anything, this is really just beginning. We’ve got the Regulatory Standards Bill that’s going to be introduced at some point before June. That particular bill will do what the Treaty Principle’s Bill was aiming to do, but in a different and just more sneaky way.

    ‘The next fight’
    “So for me, that’s definitely the next fight that we all gotta get up for again.”

    Waikato, who also launched a petition in March calling for the free school lunch programme contract to be overhauled, said allowing the Treaty Principles Bill to get this far in the first place was a “waste of time and money.”

    “Its an absolutely atrocious waste of taxpayers dollars, especially when we’ve got issues like the school lunches that I am advocating for on the other side.”

    “So for me, the fight’s far from over. It’s really just getting started.”

    ACT leader David Seymour on Thursday after his bill was voted down in Parliament. Image: RNZ/Russell Palmer

    ACT Party leader David Seymour continued to defend the Treaty Principles Bill during its second reading on Thursday, and said the debate over the treaty’s principles was far from over.

    After being the only party to vote in favour of the bill, Seymour said not a single statement had grappled with the content of the bill — despite all the debate.

    Asked if his party had lost in this nationwide conversation, he said they still had not heard a good argument against it.

    ‘We’ll never give up on equal rights.”

    He said there were lots of options for continuing, and the party’s approach would be made clear before the next election

    Kassie Hartendorp said Te Tiriti Action Group Pōneke operates under the korowai – the cloak – of mana whenua and their tikanga in this area, which is called Te Kahu o Te Raukura, a cloak of aroha and peace. Image: RNZ

    Eyes on local elections – ActionStation says the mahi continues
     Community advocacy group ActionStation’s director Kassie Hartendorp, who helped spearhead campaigns like “Together for Te Tiriti”, said her team was feeling really positive.

    “It’s been a lot of work to get to this point, but we feel like this is a very good day for our country.”

    At the end of the hīkoi mō Te Tiriti, ActionStation co-delivered a Ngāti Whakaue rangatahi led petition opposing the Treaty Principles Bill, with more than 290,000 signatures — the second largest petition in Aotearoa’s history.

    They also hosted a live watch party for the bill’s second reading on Facebook, joined by Te Tiriti experts Dr Carwyn Jones and Tania Waikato.

    Hartendorp said it was amazing to see people from all over Aotearoa coming together to reject the bill.

    “It’s no longer a minority view that we should respect, but more and more and more people realise that it’s a fundamental part of our national identity that should be respected and not trampled every time a government wants to win power,” she said.

    Looking to the future, Hartendorp said Thursday’s victory was only one milestone in a longer campaign.

    Why people fought back
    “There was a future where this bill hadn’t gone down — this could’ve ended very differently. The reason we’re here now is because people fought back.

    “People from all backgrounds and ages said: ‘We respect Te Tiriti o Waitangi.’

    “We know it’s essential, it’s a part of our history, our past, our present, and our future. And we want to respect that together.”

    Hartendorp said they were now gearing up to fight against essentially another version of the Treaty Principles Bill — but on a local level.

    “In October, people in 42 councils around the country will vote on whether or not to keep their Māori ward councillors, and we think this is going to be a really big deal.”

    The Regulatory Standards Bill is also being closely watched, Hartendorp said, and she believed it could mirror the “divisive tactics” seen with the Treaty Principles Bill.

    “Part of the strategy for David Seymour and the ACT Party was to win over the public mandate by saying the public stands against Te Tiriti o Waitangi. That debate is still on,” she said.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Peter Dutton’s climate policy backslide threatens Australia’s clout in the Pacific – right when we need it most

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wesley Morgan, Research Associate, Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney

    Australia’s relationship with its regional neighbours could be in doubt under a Coalition government after two Pacific leaders challenged Opposition Leader Peter Dutton over his weak climate stance.

    This week, Palau’s president Surangel Whipps Jr suggested a 2015 gaffe by Dutton, in which he joked about rising seas lapping at the door of Pacific islanders, had not been forgotten. Speaking at a clean energy conference in Sydney, Whipps said the Pacific’s plight was “not a metaphor or a punchline. It’s our fear and reality.”

    And Tuvalu’s Climate Change Minister, Maina Talia, this month criticised Dutton for suggesting a joint Australia–Pacific bid to host global climate talks next year was “madness”. Talia said Dutton’s comments caused Pacific leaders to “question the nature of our friendship” with Australia.

    Both Labor and Coalition governments have worked hard this decade to cement Australia as a security partner of choice for Pacific nations, as China seeks to expand its influence. Australia’s next government must continue this work by signalling an unwavering commitment to strong climate action.

    What are the major parties offering on climate policy?

    Worsening climate change – with associated sea-level rise and other harms – is the greatest threat to Pacific island nations.

    Pacific leaders have long criticised Australia for its climate policy shortcomings, including its continued reliance on fossil fuels. As Palau’s president Whipps told the ABC this week:

    We are urging Australia – and whoever forms the next government – to take the next steps and stop approving new fossil fuel projects and accelerate the phase-out of coal and gas.

    The Labor government has not agreed to the phase-out. But it has sought to improve Pacific ties through more ambitious climate action.

    In 2022, it introduced a stronger emissions-reduction target – a 43% cut this decade, based on 2005 levels. The same year, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese joined Pacific leaders to declare a climate emergency.

    In 2023, Australia signed a climate migration deal with Tuvalu. It also prevents Tuvalu from pursuing a security deal with China.

    A Coalition government would review Australia’s 43% cut to emissions. It would also expand gas production, and slow the shift to renewables while building seven nuclear reactors. Dutton is also considering weakening Australia’s signature climate policy, the safeguard mechanism, which aims to reduce industry emissions.

    And last month, Dutton suggested the Coalition would ditch the Australia–Pacific bid to host the next United Nations climate summit, known as COP31.

    How will this go down in the Pacific?

    Australia has dramatically stepped up engagement with Pacific island countries in recent years. This has been guided by the foreign policy goal of integrating Pacific countries into Australia’s economy and security institutions.

    But Pacific island leaders also expect Australia – the largest member of the Pacific Islands Forum – to seriously tackle the climate crisis. Should Australia fail on this measure, securing our place in the region during a time of growing strategic competition will become increasingly difficult.

    Pacific leaders welcomed Australia’s plans to host the COP31 climate talks and agreed to work with this nation on the joint bid. If Dutton wins power and abandons the COP31 push, he could face a frosty reception when he meets with Pacific island leaders.

    Palau, in particular, could embarrass Dutton on the global stage. It will host the Pacific Islands Forum meeting next year, weeks before the COP31 talks. This year, Palau also takes over as chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, an important negotiating bloc in global climate talks.

    Countering China’s influence

    Australia’s leadership in the Pacific is considered key to our national defence and security. But China’s growing power in the Pacific has weakened Australia’s standing.

    In 2022, for example, Solomon Islands signed a security deal with China to allow naval vessels to be based there – effectively allowing a Chinese military base on Australia’s doorstep. As recently as February this year, the Cook Islands signed a series of agreements with China to enhance cooperation.

    At the same time, the Trump administration has all but abandoned the United States’ overseas aid program. This leaves Australia with even more work to counter China’s creep into the region.

    In last month’s federal budget, Labor redirected aid money to the Pacific to counteract Trump’s cuts. However, Liberal backbenchers reportedly fear Dutton would cut the foreign aid budget and warn a reduction in Pacific aid would strengthen Beijing’s hand.

    Climate policy is key to Australia-Pacific goodwill

    Australia’s past failures on climate policy have hurt our standing in the Pacific – a point conceded by senior Coalition figure Simon Birmingham.

    A Coalition government is likely to continue some diplomatic measures initiated by the Albanese government, such as security agreements with Tuvalu and Nauru, and negotiating a new defence treaty with Papua New Guinea.

    But the depth of feeling among Pacific leaders on climate action cannot be overstated. As global geopolitical tensions sharpen, Australia’s next moves on climate policy will be vital to the future of our Pacific relationship.

    Wesley Morgan is a fellow with the Climate Council of Australia

    – ref. Peter Dutton’s climate policy backslide threatens Australia’s clout in the Pacific – right when we need it most – https://theconversation.com/peter-duttons-climate-policy-backslide-threatens-australias-clout-in-the-pacific-right-when-we-need-it-most-254385

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Coalition plan to dump fuel efficiency penalties would make Australia a global outlier

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Mortimore, Lecturer, Griffith Business School, Griffith University

    The Coalition has announced it would, if elected to government, weaken a scheme aimed at cutting car emissions.

    The scheme, known as the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES), was introduced by the Albanese government and was due to take effect in July. It involved issuing penalties to automakers that breach an emissions ceiling on their total new car sales.

    The new Coalition plan, announced this week, would see such penalties abolished.

    But the penalties are crucial. Without penalties, automakers have limited incentive to supply fuel efficient, low or zero-CO₂ emitting vehicles to the Australian market.

    If this plan became government policy, it would make Australia an international outlier – and put at risk Australia’s ability to meet its obligations under the Paris climate agreement.

    An international outlier

    More than 85% of the international car market is covered by fuel efficiency standards.

    Without a robust New Vehicle Efficiency Standard scheme, complete with penalties for automakers that break the rules, Australia would join Russia in the tiny minority of developed countries without strong fuel efficiency standards for new vehicles.

    Abolishing the penalties embedded in the scheme also risks making Australia the world’s dumping ground for inefficient vehicles.

    That’s because the penalties embedded in the scheme are there to incentivise automakers to sell more efficient vehicles in Australia.

    The current scheme, as it is, is not particularly punitive. Automakers that breach their cap of emissions are given up to two years to fix their mistakes before being issued with a financial penalty.

    Weakening the scheme won’t help make it easier for Australians to buy fuel-efficient cars.

    Decarbonising Australian roads

    The 2015 Paris Agreement, to which Australia is a signatory, requires developed nations to decarbonise their transport by as much as 80% by 2050.

    Carbon emissions from Australian transport accounts for 21.1% of the nation’s emissions (to June 2023).

    It represents the third largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in Australia.

    Without measures aimed at making cars more fuel efficient, Australia’s CO₂ emissions will continue to rise. It will be harder to meet our commitments under the Paris Agreement.

    It’s regulation, not a tax

    The Coalition, which is hoping to pick up votes in outer-ring suburbs, has called the penalties embedded in the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard scheme a “car tax”.

    Liberal leader Peter Dutton said this week:

    This is a tax on families who need a reliable car and small businesses trying to grow. Instead of making life easier, Labor is making it harder and more expensive […] We want cleaner, cheaper cars on Australian roads as we head towards net zero by 2050, but forcing unfair penalties on carmakers and consumers is not the answer.

    But these penalties are not a tax; they are a form of regulation. Automakers that meet the rules wouldn’t have to pay penalties, under the current scheme.

    If the goal is to reduce people’s hip-pocket pain at the bowser, the focus should be on ensuring Australians can buy fuel-efficient vehicles.

    That means incentivising automakers to bring fuel-efficient vehicles to the Australian market. It also means avoiding any policy that encourages carmakers to see Australia as a dumping ground for gas-guzzling vehicles.

    Anna Mortimore receives funding from Reliable Affordable Clean Energy Cooperative Research Centre for 2030 (RACE for 2030).

    – ref. Coalition plan to dump fuel efficiency penalties would make Australia a global outlier – https://theconversation.com/coalition-plan-to-dump-fuel-efficiency-penalties-would-make-australia-a-global-outlier-254386

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Kids cheering ‘chicken jockey!’ at A Minecraft Movie isn’t antisocial – it creates a chance for us to connect

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sophia Staite, Lecturer in Humanities, University of Tasmania

    Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures

    Social media is ablaze with reports of kids going wild at screenings of A Minecraft Movie.

    Some cinemas are cracking down. There are reports of cinemas calling in police to deal with rowdy theatregoers and making special announcements before the film, warning of consequences for “anti-social behaviour” including “clapping and shouting”.

    But these kids are engaging in a kind of communal experience. Rather than being antisocial behaviour – couldn’t we label it as prosocial?

    The global fandom of Minecraft

    Minecraft was first released in 2011 and has sold over 350 million copies, making it the best-selling video game of all time.

    Minecraft is an unstructured game that provides mineable resources and leaves players to create whatever they want with them. Creations can be as basic as stacking blocks of wood to make a wall, or as complex as a working computer.

    It has become the nexus of a vast online community of people with an interest in the game.

    Players connect to one-another digitally and share certain social norms and knowledge, including a memeified vernacular. Minecraft-playing Youtubers have also become popular, and are the source of many memes.

    The community is dominated by children and young adults and the incomprehensibility of their vernacular for other generations is possibly part of its appeal.

    Within child and youth fan communities the usual hierarchies of communication are reversed. Instead of kids having to learn to speak according to adults’ rules, in this community the kids maintain a knowledge system that excludes a lot of adults.

    Enter A Minecraft Movie

    A Minecraft Movie opened last weekend to enormous box office success, bringing in US$313.2 million globally. The film follows four humans who stumble through a portal into the Overworld (Minecraft). Their only way home involves teaming up with fellow human Steve (Jack Black) to save the Overworld from the creativity-hating Piglins.

    Almost immediately, social media conversations sprang up about the behaviour of audiences. One bemused parent described the atmosphere of the cinema as “like [when] The Beatles came to America”.

    Many of the videos shared of audiences during screenings show joyful scenes of communal pleasure, similar to other responses to highly anticipated films such as Avengers: Endgame.

    But while the response to Avengers: Endgame was celebrated, the behaviour of children and teens at A Minecraft Movie has been framed by news outlets in negative terms.

    Journalist Keith Stuart suggests the different responses are a result of parents feeling excluded by A Minecraft Movie’s frequent references to memes.

    Negative news reports link audience behaviour to existing moral panics about social media challenges and are particularly focused on popcorn being thrown.

    The use of the same two or three videos of popcorn throwing to illustrate multiple news articles highlights how relatively few reports of popcorn throwing there currently are.

    Instead, most of the debate on social media has been about the etiquette of noisiness during screenings, including cheering and clapping.

    Finding community

    A Minecraft Movie speaks the memeified vernacular of its online community.

    The film incorporates references to longstanding memes, popular Minecraft YouTubers (and some cameos) and, of course, to the game itself.

    The film is speaking directly to Minecraft fans, and audiences are responding by displaying their mastery of this vernacular and strengthening their sense of belonging.

    By clapping and cheering when they recognise a meme, or saying lines of dialogue in sync with the actors, kids are identifying themselves as members of a community.

    When a whole cinema full of young people does this simultaneously, they are identifying themselves to and with one another.

    This is prosocial, strategic communication – not the antisocial pandemonium and chaos some reports would have us believe. Instead, fans are reporting the cheering and clapping happens at specific moments: they are enjoying both the film, and reacting to it.

    During the brief (but meaningful for knowledgeable audience members) tribute to beloved YouTuber Technoblade, who died of cancer in 2022, there have been reports of whole theatres falling silent as a mark of respect.

    An online community of kids and teens has suddenly become hyper visible to adults because it has intersected with the traditional media space of the cinema.

    Online games such as Minecraft are a crucial part of kids’ social lives and play.

    Perhaps adults can seize this moment as an opportunity to learn more about something that clearly matters deeply to a lot of kids.

    Sophia Staite does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Kids cheering ‘chicken jockey!’ at A Minecraft Movie isn’t antisocial – it creates a chance for us to connect – https://theconversation.com/kids-cheering-chicken-jockey-at-a-minecraft-movie-isnt-antisocial-it-creates-a-chance-for-us-to-connect-254287

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Could changing your diet improve endometriosis pain? A recent study suggests it’s possible

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Evangeline Mantzioris, Program Director of Nutrition and Food Sciences, Accredited Practising Dietitian, University of South Australia

    ovchinnikova_ksenya/Shutterstock

    Endometriosis affects around 10% of women of reproductive age. It’s a chronic inflammatory condition that occurs when tissue similar to the lining of the uterus (the endometrium) grows outside the uterus.

    Endometriosis can cause chronic pain, bloating, bowel and bladder dysfunction, pain during sex and infertility. These symptoms can lead to reduced quality of life and mental health challenges.

    Although endometriosis pain can be treated with medication or surgery, these options are not suitable for everyone, and a significant number of women experience recurrent symptoms even after surgery.

    Many women with endometriosis look to complementary therapies to manage their symptoms, which can include dietary changes and taking supplements.

    A recent study sought to understand different dietary strategies women with endometriosis use and how these affect their pain levels. The researchers found cutting down on things like dairy, gluten, caffeine and alcohol could improve endometriosis pain.

    Let’s take a closer look.

    What the researchers did and found

    The study, which was led by researchers from the University of Edinburgh, involved an online survey. It asked women with endometriosis questions about any dietary changes they made and any supplements they used, and whether they found these useful for managing pain.

    A total of 2,388 women with a confirmed diagnosis of endometriosis completed the survey. Some 84% of respondents had made at least one dietary change, 67% of whom reported these changes improved their pain. Meanwhile, 59% had used supplements, 43% of whom considered these changes improved their pain.

    The following are some of the most popular dietary changes women had tried, and how they thought these changes affected their pain:

    • drinking less alcohol (improved pain in 53% of women)

    • eating less gluten (45%)

    • consuming less dairy (45%)

    • consuming less caffeine (43%)

    • eating less processed sugar, which can be found in foods and drinks such as lollies, cakes, biscuits and soft drinks (41%)

    • eating less processed foods, which include deli meats, savoury snacks such as chips and sausage rolls, and chocolate (38%)

    • following a low FODMAP diet, which involves avoiding short-chain carbohydrates (certain types of sugars) to reduce gas, bloating, pain and discomfort (32%)

    • adopting a Mediterranean diet, which is a diet high in plant foods (including fruit and green leafy vegetables), extra virgin olive oil, breads, fish, fermented dairy, and cereals and low in red meat, and processed meats and foods (29%).

    For supplements:

    • turmeric or curcumin, the active ingredient in turmeric (improved pain in 48% of women)

    • magnesium (32%)

    • peppermint (26%)

    • ginger (22%).

    Around one in ten women of reproductive age have endometriosis.
    Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock

    Some limitations

    There are some weaknesses in this study to consider when interpreting the results. First, it’s an observational study, which means we cannot say these dietary changes and supplements cause decreased pain, just that there appears to be an link.

    To be more confident about the effects of dietary changes or supplements, we would need to do randomised studies with control groups.

    Also, the participants self-reported dietary changes they had made in the past and past pain levels. This relies on memory, which can be unreliable.

    All that said, this sort of research does provide us with clues about what may work, especially when we combine it with our knowledge of the actions these foods and supplements have in the body.

    So how would they work?

    Given the inflammatory component in endometriosis, the findings of this study are not entirely surprising. Many of the dietary changes and supplements this study looked at have anti-inflammtory properties.

    For example, reducing alcohol consumption, reducing processed foods, adopting a Mediterranean diet and using turmeric or curcumin may reduce inflammation.

    It’s possible certain dietary changes could improve endometriosis symptoms by reducing inflammation.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    Some of the findings of this study seem to align with other evidence, while others don’t.

    For example, a recent review showed the Mediterranean diet can lead to reductions in pain, however the relevant studies did not have control groups. This same review showed a low FODMAP diet reduced pain and improved quality of life in people with endometriosis.

    Meanwhile, a 2024 paper concluded there’s a lack of evidence to support a gluten-free diet for endometriosis symptoms. The authors argued avoiding gluten to manage the condition should be discouraged.

    Peppermint has been reported to reduce period pain and nausea. But I couldn’t find any specific evidence for endometriosis.

    So what should you do?

    If you have endometriosis, this study and existing evidence suggests following a Mediterranean diet or a low FODMAP diet may reduce pain. This current study also indicates reducing your intake of alcohol, sugar and processed foods may help.

    Importantly, these changes won’t do any harm to your overall health. In fact, the Australian dietary guidelines recommend drinking alcohol and consuming processed foods in moderation, given links to a range of chronic diseases. So these changes may have other benefits too.

    However, some of the dietary changes reported in this study may be problematic.

    For example, eliminating dairy will significantly reduce your calcium intake which is important for building healthy bones and reducing the risk of osteoporosis in later life. However, there are other ways of ensuring an adequate intake of the nutrients found in dairy products.

    Reducing caffeine won’t lead to any health or nutritional concerns, but may affect quality of life for people who enjoy drinking coffee or tea.

    Women with endometriosis can try supplements such as turmeric or curcumin and ginger, but it’s best to try them one at a time, so you can identify which one works for you.

    If you’re looking to change your diet to try to manage endometriosis symptoms, it may be best to see a registered or accredited practising dietitian to ensure you’re following a nutritionally balanced diet.

    Evangeline Mantzioris is affiliated with Alliance for Research in Nutrition, Exercise and Activity (ARENA) at the University of South Australia. Evangeline Mantzioris has received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, and has been appointed to the National Health and Medical Research Council Dietary Guideline Expert Committee.

    – ref. Could changing your diet improve endometriosis pain? A recent study suggests it’s possible – https://theconversation.com/could-changing-your-diet-improve-endometriosis-pain-a-recent-study-suggests-its-possible-253945

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Traded like assets, expected to be loyal: the unique double standard of being an Australian footy player

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hunter Fujak, Senior Lecturer in Sport Management, Deakin University

    Few issues in Australian sport generate as much media noise or emotional fan reactions as player movement, especially in our major winter codes the National Rugby League (NRL) and Australian Football League (AFL).

    Contract negotiations, trade whispers and club defections dominate headlines, talkback radio, social media and fan forums — often eclipsing the on-field action itself.

    In the past month, the sport news cycle has been dominated by player movement controversies involving the NRL’s Dylan Brown and Daly Cherry-Evans and the AFL’s Oscar Allen.

    The scrutiny these athletes face is one feature of a workplace defined by expectations rarely found in other industries.

    In a world where professional athletes are simultaneously financial investments and human beings, can fans, athletes and leagues strike a truly fair balance when it comes to player movement?

    A unique legal status

    Professional sport is exempted from several commercial laws that otherwise apply to typical industries. This is due to its peculiar economics.

    Crucially, leagues such as the AFL and NRL are permitted to operate as cartels, whereby clubs act collectively in ways that petrol stations or supermarkets legally cannot.

    One outcome of sport cartels has been the implementation of various restrictive practices on the recruitment, transfer and remuneration of professional athletes.

    Drafts, trade windows and salary caps are all anti-competitive mechanisms with two general aims: fostering “competitive balance” between teams and suppressing player wages to maintain leaguewide financial viability.

    These mechanisms remain in place mostly due to co-operation between leagues and their player associations (the AFLPA and RLPA), as their underlying legal standing is in fact ambiguous.

    Whether the AFL’s draft would survive a court challenge is debatable.

    Australia’s varied player movement rules

    National Rugby League

    The NRL operates a salary cap model with free agency. This affords athletes strong freedom of movement, including the potential to switch clubs mid-season. Some consider this to be a negative, given constant media conjecture over player movements. However, it keeps the NRL perpetually in the headlines.

    In the absence of a draft, individual NRL clubs are responsible for their own junior development and talent identification. The Penrith Panthers’ historic premiership four-peat was underpinned by successfully leveraging their immense junior catchment to develop NRL superstars.

    A benefit of this model is it maximises the opportunity for local juniors to play for their local team. This pathway from local junior to hometown hero authentically contributes to embedding NRL clubs within local communities.

    Australian Football League

    The AFL operates both a draft and salary cap, and players have considerably less autonomy.

    Player movement occurs almost exclusively in the post-season. Despite this, clubs sweet talk rival players in the shadows outside this window, hoping to make signings official in the off-season.

    This practice came into view this week by the controversy surrounding West Coast captain Allen’s meeting with a rival coach.

    The AFL draft takes place after the trade period and is the primary way for athletes to enter the competition.

    The draft order is inverted, linked to clubs’ on-field performance (the team that finishes last receives the first pick).

    Clubs are largely removed from the process of developing junior athletes, which is centralised through the AFL’s national talent pathway.

    The athlete perspective

    While professional athletes are often portrayed as privileged, there are few other professions that impose such severe restraints on the rights of workers.

    The Allen controversy is a reminder the AFL operates a system where the clubs are masters and players well-remunerated servants.

    For the crime of meeting another coach in considering his future, albeit clumsily, Allen was described as “selfish”, “a sell-out,”, “utterly disgusting” and compelled into a press conference apology.

    Criticisms of athletes as selfish scarcely acknowledge that, unlike doctors or lawyers, they have uniquely short timespans to exploit their sporting careers.

    In many sports, as is the case in rugby league, athletes are disproportionately from lower socio-economic settings, where the money is life changing.

    The fan perspective

    Professional sport thrives because fans are emotionally attached to their teams. Fans rarely switch the team they support, so they often expect the same from players.

    Fan attitudes on player loyalty are therefore largely driven by emotion rather than rationality. Few fans employed in contract work would reject meeting a potential future employer because of a sole dedication to their current employer, as was the case for Allen.

    Even fewer fans would reject the ten-year, $13 million contract accepted by Dylan Brown to depart the Parramatta Eels, yet many booed him for doing so, as Melbourne fans did in 2012 after the departure of former No.1 AFL draft pick Tom Scully to Greater Western Sydney.

    In 2007, Parramatta Eels fans even threw coins at departed player Jamie Lyon. Thankfully for Brown, Australia has since become a mainly cashless society.

    Is there a fair balance?

    Player movement in Australian footy codes is a system of regulations that attempts to balance the competing demands of various stakeholders.

    In recent times, the NRL has explored the introduction of trade windows, and drafts, seemingly in response criticism over player movement and competitive imbalance.

    Such proposals have received strong
    pushback from the RLPA.

    Responding to the Allen fallout, AFLPA boss Paul Marsh conceded the AFL ecosystem remains immature to player movement:

    There shouldn’t be outrage about this stuff but there is. As much as I think we should be mature enough to deal with this, it is the industry we are in.

    The challenge for these codes therefore isn’t just regulating player movement but confronting the double standard placed upon athletes that expects loyalty in a system designed to control.

    Hunter Fujak has served as an external advisor to several Australian player associations on a pro-bono basis, including the Rugby League Players Association.

    Joshua McLeod does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Traded like assets, expected to be loyal: the unique double standard of being an Australian footy player – https://theconversation.com/traded-like-assets-expected-to-be-loyal-the-unique-double-standard-of-being-an-australian-footy-player-253618

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –