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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: As Canada is threatened, it’s urgent to revisit Indigenous sovereignty and nationhood

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Frank Deer, Professor, Faculty of Education, University of Manitoba

    Early in his second term as president of the United States, Donald Trump began making explicit threats about Canada becoming the 51st American state.

    In the midst of his absurd and at times disrespectful rhetoric that’s also included a proposal to acquire Greenland and the Gaza Strip, some have argued Trump’s interest in annexing Canada is an imperialistic impulse.

    As a Kanienʼkehá꞉ka educator concerned with Indigenous language education, civic education and reconciliation, I believe it’s important to explore how Canadians should think about Indigenous nationhood with Canada’s sovereignty under threat. I also believe a U.S. annexation of Canada would be devastating for Indigenous Peoples.

    Re-asserting Canadian nationhood amid threats

    Trump has stated that Canada can be annexed through economic force while others have speculated a military invasion may be part of this conquest attempt.

    Although Trump’s threats against Canada seem ludicrous, many Canadians are taking them seriously and regard the ongoing imperialist rhetoric as a threat to Canadian sovereignty.



    Read more:
    Canada, Greenland, Panama, Gaza and now Ukraine: Wake up, world, Donald Trump is coming for you

    Canadian politicians, public intellectuals and members of the public have reacted strongly to this threat in ways that assert Canadian nationhood, sovereignty and identity. Some suggest a sense of national unity has been stoked in Canada for the first time in generations.

    However, that sense of unity that many may be feeling in Canada — and could affect how Canadians cast their votes in the forthcoming federal election — conceals the realities of nationhood in Canada. There are several aspects of nationhood in Canada that may merit conversation in terms of unity and the current American threats. But I’m particularly concerned that the nationhood that exists among First Nations, Inuit and Métis may be particularly threatened by an American annexation.

    Indigenous Peoples

    Canada is a nation state that occupies the traditional territories of many Indigenous nations, representing a broad diversity of cultural and language backgrounds. The Indigenous Peoples of these nations had served as stewards of the territories of North America far longer than the European colonizers who eventually seized control of the territories.

    Many of the Canadian government’s colonial and post-colonial activities, abetted by their partners (for example, churches of various denominations), were genocidal in nature.

    These colonial actions resulted in Indigenous communities becoming constituent parts one unified nation — Canada. Very little public discourse acknowledges that Indigenous Peoples had already established their own concepts of nation and nationhood. These were displaced by those who established control of the territories.



    Read more:
    Indigenous people invented the so-called ‘American Dream’

    Indigenous nationhood

    Indigenous nations have and continue to regard their communal connections and responsibilities through Indigenous nationhood.

    There are various key aspects of Indigenous nationhood: sociologist Stephen Cornell, who has worked with Indigenous nations and organizations in North America, Australia and New Zealand, observes five of them, including connections to the land, kinship and community, narratives and history associated with the land and culture, self-governance and collective well-being.

    For example, many Anishinaabe consider nationhood as being built on stories and traditions and shaped by relationships and communities. Views like these are enriched by the diversity among Indigenous Peoples.

    The Haudenosaunee (Iroquois) people share many stories, traditions and language that inform their concept of nationhood and their treaty arrangements (such as the Kaswentha). But the Haudenosaunee also consist of different Indigenous nations — including my own, the Kanienʼkehá꞉ka — with each having their own unique manifestations of Indigenous knowledge, heritage and consciousness.

    These different nations functioned in tandem with one another by forming allyships and sharing land.

    Canada not a single, homogenous nation

    Colonialist incursions by French, British and, later, Canadian authorities have disrupted how Indigenous notions of nationhood may be understood by Canadians.

    In ignoring aspects of Indigenous nationhood by exploiting land, dividing families and communities, reconstructing historical narratives, stymying self-governance and emphasizing individual well-being over the collective, the notion of Indigenous nationhood has been marginalized in mainstream public consciousness in Canada.

    Instead, the prevailing notion is that Canada is a single and somewhat homogenous nation. This might sound desirable to some and even idyllic, but it’s a myth.

    Legal implications, reconciliation journey

    Why does Indigenous nationhood have to do with an American president’s threats to Canadian sovereignty?

    Indigenous nationhood has not just been a part of Indigenous consciousness and ways of life for centuries, but is now closely tied to established and developing legal and constitutional principles in Canada.

    These principles are now, after generations of oversight and subjugation, finally allowing Indigenous nations to explore and enact approaches to self-determination and self-governance.

    Trump’s threats imply that existing Canadian legal and constitutional frames would be abolished. They also suggest that the cultural and linguistic mores of Indigenous nations would be endangered even more than they have already been. The reconciliation journey — one that has been informed by the work of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada — would almost certainly be abandoned.

    Treaty relations and 51st state?

    More specific concerns about nationhood emerging from Trump’s threats are connected to particular Indigenous nations. For instance, many First Nations have treaty relations with the Crown.

    These treaties codify the relationship that these First Nations have with the government of Canada. There is a lot of work being done to better understand treaties in modern times. Treaty arrangements and ongoing efforts to better understand them would be terminated should Canada become the 51st American state.



    Read more:
    Revisiting the Williams Treaties of 1923: Anishinaabeg perspectives after a century

    Much has been achieved by Indigenous Peoples — sometimes in partnership with non-Indigenous people — to enhance their well-being and their place in the world to determine their way forward.

    There is, of course, a lot of work still to be done. Poverty, for example, is still widespread among Indigenous Peoples, the languages and cultures of many are endangered and Indigenous women and girls continue to be treated horrifically. But the journey of Indigenous nations toward well-being and self-determination has led to achievements that can make Indigenous Peoples can be proud.

    Would this journey continue as a 51st state? I have my doubts.

    Frank Deer has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. As Canada is threatened, it’s urgent to revisit Indigenous sovereignty and nationhood – https://theconversation.com/as-canada-is-threatened-its-urgent-to-revisit-indigenous-sovereignty-and-nationhood-253199

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: AI is making elections weird: Lessons from a simulated war-game exercise

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Robert Marinov, PhD Candidate in Communication, Concordia University

    A simulated exercise reveals much about the proliferation and circulation of AI-generated content. (Shutterstock)

    On March 8, the Conservative campaign team released a video of Pierre Poilievre on social media that drew unusual questions from some viewers. To many, Poilievre’s French sounded a little too smooth, and his complexion looked a little too perfect. The video had what’s known as an “uncanny valley” effect, causing some to wonder if the Poilievre they were seeing was even real.

    Before long, the comments section filled with speculation: was this video AI-generated? Even a Liberal Party video mocking Poilievre’s comments led followers to ask why the Conservatives’ video sounded “so dubbed” and whether it was made with AI.

    The ability to discern real from fake is seriously in jeopardy.

    Poilievre’s smooth video offers an early answer to an open question: How might generative AI affect our election cycle? Our research team at Concordia University created a simulation to experiment with this question.

    From a deepfake Mark Carney to AI-assisted fact-checkers, our preliminary results suggest that generative AI is not quite going to break elections, but it is likely to make them weirder.

    A war game, but for elections?

    Our simulation continued our past work in developing games to explore the Canadian media system.

    Red teaming is a type of exercise that allows organizations to simulate attacks on their critical digital infrastructures and processes. It involves two teams — the attacking red team and the defending blue team. These exercises can help uncover vulnerability points within systems or defences and practice ways of correcting them.

    Red-teaming has become a major part of cybersecurity and AI development. Here, developers and organizations stress-test their software and digital systems to understand how hackers or other “bad actors” might try to manipulate or crash them.

    Fraudulent Futures

    Our simulation, called Fraudulent Futures, attempted to evaluate AI’s impact on Canada’s political information cycle.

    Four days into the ongoing federal election campaign, we ran the first test. A group of ex-journalists, cybersecurity experts and graduate students were pitted against each other to see who could leverage free AI tools best to push their agenda in a simulated social media environment based on our past research.

    Hosted on a private Mastodon server securely shielded from public eyes, our two-hour long simulation quickly descended into silence as players played out their different roles on our simulated servers. Some played far-right influencers, others monarchists to make noise or journalists to cover events online. Players and organizers alike learned about generative AI’s capacity to create disinformation, and the difficulties faced by stakeholders trying to combat it.

    Players connected to the server through their laptops and familiarized themselves with the dozens of free AI tools at their disposal. Shortly after, we shared an incriminating voice clone of Carney, created with an easily accessible online AI tool.

    The Red Team was instructed to amplify the disinformation, while the Blue Team was directed to verify its authenticity and, if they determined it to be fake, mitigate the harm.

    The Blue Team began testing the audio through AI detection tools and tried to publicize it was a fake. But for the Red Team, this hardly mattered. Fact-checking posts were quickly drowned out by a constant slew of new memes and fake images of angry Canadian voters denouncing Carney.

    Whether the Carney clip was a deepfake or not didn’t really matter. The fact that we couldn’t tell for sure was enough to fuel endless online attacks.

    Easily available and free AI tools can be used to generate and promote misinformation at an overwhelming rate.
    (Shutterstock)

    Learning from an exercise

    Our simulation purposefully exaggerated the information cycle. Yet the experience of trying to disrupt regular electoral processes was highly informative as a research method. Our research team found three major takeaways from the exercise:

    1. Generative AI is easy to use for disruption

    Many online AI tools claim to safeguard against generating content on elections and public figures. Despite those safeguards, players noted these tools would still generate political content.

    The overall quality of the content produced was easy to distinguish as AI-generated. Yet, one of our players noted how simple it was “to generate and spam as much content as possible in order to muddy the waters on the digital landscape.”

    2. AI detection tools won’t save us

    AI detection tools can only go so far. They are rarely conclusive, and they may even take precedence over common sense. Players noted that even when they knew content was fake, they still felt they “needed to find the tool that would give the answer [they] want” to lend credibility to their interventions.

    Most telling was how journalists on the Blue Team turned toward faulty detection tools over their own investigative work, a sign that users may be letting AI detection usurp journalistic skill.

    With higher-quality content available in real-world situations, there might be a role for specialized AI detection tools in journalistic and election security processes — despite complex challenges — but these tools should not replace other investigative methods.

    However, detection tools will likely only contribute to spreading uncertainty because of the lack of standards and confidence in their assessments.

    3. Quality deepfakes are difficult to make

    High-quality AI-generated content is achievable and has already caused many online and real-world harms and panics. However, our simulation helped confirm that quality deepfakes are difficult and time-consuming to make.

    It is unlikely that the mass availability of generative AI will cause an overwhelming influx of high-quality deceptive content. These types of deepfakes will likely come from more organized, funded and specialized groups engaged in election interference.

    Democracy in the age of AI

    A major takeaway from our simulation was that the proliferation of AI slop and the stoking of uncertainty and distrust are easy to accomplish at a spam-like scale with freely accessible online tools and little to no prior knowledge or preparation.

    Our red-teaming experiment was a first attempt to see how participants might use generative AI in elections. We’ll be working to improve and re-run the simulation to include the broader information cycle, with a particular eye towards better simulating Blue Team co-operation in the hopes of reflecting real-world efforts by journalists, election officials, political parties and others to uphold election integrity.

    We anticipate that the Poilievre debate is just the beginning of a long string of incidents to come, where AI distorts our ability to discern the real from the fake. While everyone can play a role in combatting disinformation, hands-on experience and game-based media literacy have proven to be valuable tools. Our simulation proposes a new and engaging way to explore the impacts of AI on our media ecosystem.

    Robert Marinov received funding from the Center for the Study of Democratic Citizenship and Concordia University’s Applied AI Institute for this research.

    Colleen McCool received funding from the Center for the Study of Democratic Citizenship and Concordia University’s Applied AI Institute for this research.

    Fenwick McKelvey receives funding from the Center for the Study of Democratic Citizenship. Research has been supported Concordia University’s Applied AI Institute and the Technoculture, Art and Games (TAG) centre at the Milieux Institute.

    Roxanne Bisson receives funding from the Center for the Study of Democratic Citizenship and Concordia University’s Applied AI Institute for this research.

    – ref. AI is making elections weird: Lessons from a simulated war-game exercise – https://theconversation.com/ai-is-making-elections-weird-lessons-from-a-simulated-war-game-exercise-253433

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why tax literacy should be a national priority in Canada

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Esteban Vallejo Toledo, PhD Student in Law and Society, University of Victoria

    The last time Canada’s political parties campaigned during a tax season was more than a decade ago. This year, taxes are a hot topic, and for good reason. Shortly after the federal election was called, the political parties began rolling out promises of tax cuts to win over voters.

    At the same time, although Canada’s consumer carbon tax was scapped last month, debates about the industrial carbon tax are likely to continue.

    As the election campaign continues and political parties make more tax-related promises, approximately 3,520 tax clinics and 18,090 volunteers are doing their best to help people file their taxes until April 30. Some of the volunteers are struggling to help as many people as possible.

    No candidate has talked about a tax issue that is essential for life in free and democratic societies: tax literacy. If Canada is to maintain an informed, financially responsible and democratic society, tax literacy must become part of the national conversation.

    A longstanding idea with modern relevance

    The notion of tax literacy has been gaining traction in recent years, but it’s far from a new idea.

    One of the earliest advocates for tax literacy and education was Charles Montesquieu, a French judge and political philosopher of the Enlightenment.

    Portrait of Charles Montesquieu by an anonymous artist.
    (Wikimedia Commons)

    In his 1748 book The Spirit of Laws, Montesquieu argued for tax literacy and education for two key reasons.

    First, he was convinced that knowledge about taxation was necessary to defend oneself against the corruption and abuse that characterized private tax collectors, known at the time as tax farmers.

    Second, he believed education in democratic societies could enhance people’s sense of responsibility for public affairs and help hold authorities accountable for their actions. In his view, tax literacy and education were instrumental in how societies organized themselves for the common good.

    More than 275 years later, Montesquieu’s argument remains just as relevant.

    Tax literacy is neglected in Canada

    In Canada, tax literacy continues to be neglected despite efforts by tax agencies like Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) and Revenu Québec to promote it.

    There are important reasons to treat tax literacy as a national priority. It helps people understand and navigate federal, provincial and municipal taxes, recognize the social importance of taxation and responsibly exercise their rights. It also allows people to manage their financial affairs according to the law.

    Tax literacy is also instrumental in contesting economic populism, a political approach that claims to represent the interests of “ordinary people” against perceived elites, often by oversimplifying complex issues like taxation.

    It also helps counter the spread of of disinformation, misinformation and malinformation about taxes in the media, online and on social networks.



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    The Canada Carbon Rebate is still widely misunderstood — here’s why

    In Canada, recent examples include misleading claims that Canada has the highest taxes in the world, mischaracterizations of climate tax policies, flawed analyses of the carbon rebate’s cost and other misconceptions about the carbon rebate.

    Tax literacy vs. financial literacy

    While Canada has done considerable work to further financial literacy since 2001, tax literacy has received far less attention from both authorities and scholars.

    In fact, only two peer-reviewed studies have examined tax literacy in Canada. Published in 2016 and 2020, these studies analyze tax literacy within the context of financial literacy and mostly in relation to the income tax.

    Similar to financial literacy, the authors of these studies define tax literacy as “having the knowledge, skills and confidence to make responsible tax decisions.”

    Canada’s federal and provincial governments, as well as non-profit organizations and tax preparers, tend to use a benefit-based narrative to promote tax literacy and encourage tax compliance.

    This narrative frames filing income taxes as positive because it allows people to receive direct payments from the government. In Canada, the income tax system is closely linked to the social support system that benefits everyone, particularly low-income people for whom filing taxes is the primary way to access benefits such as the Canada Child Benefit, the GST/HST Credit and the Canada Workers Benefit.

    The missing fiscal dimension

    While the benefit-based approach aligns with international standards and has clear advantages, it also has drawbacks.

    Most notably, it overlooks the fiscal dimension of tax literacy. This dimension highlights the role taxes play in raising revenue to support government programs, promoting collective well-being, regulating economic activity, addressing social inequalities, strengthening democratic institutions and advancing social goals like environmental protection.

    Taxes are far more than mandatory payments to government. Recognizing this enables citizens to actively participate in decision-making processes and hold governments accountable.



    Read more:
    10 things everyone should know about taxation

    The fiscal dimension also broadens public understanding beyond the income tax. On one hand, it helps people interact with tax authorities beyond the CRA, including those administered by provinces, municipalities and First Nations.

    On the other hand, it helps citizens better understand public budgets and recognize that while income tax is an important source of revenue, it is not the only one.

    The fiscal dimension also challenges harmful narratives that attempt to create social divisions by using the terms “taxpayer” and “taxpayer money.” It also counters the spread of wrongful stereotypes of Indigenous people. These narratives are often used in populist rhetoric to undermine democracy by excluding marginalized groups.

    What needs to happen now

    Tax literacy must become a national priority in Canada, and public institutions must lead this process. To move in this direction, Canada’s public institutions should:

    1) Adopt a holistic approach to tax literacy that includes both the fiscal and financial dimensions.

    2) Address misinformation and discrimination experienced by Indigenous people regarding tax exemptions. This is essential to honouring the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s Calls to Action.

    3) Offer long-term partnerships and support to teachers and educational institutions to integrate tax literacy into schools.

    4) Lead the production of education resources to ensure a holistic approach. Education resources produced or sponsored by the private sector tend to focus on individual responsibility and frame financial choices in moral terms without considering broader social contexts.

    5) Ensure tax literacy initiatives serve not only children and youth but adults as well, in line with UNESCO’s vision of education as a lifelong right.

    6) Ensure adult tax literacy resources follow the recommendations of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). They should be thorough but easy to understand, offered in multiple formats, concise and supplemented by additional resources. Public authorites should expand podcasts, learning platforms and tax initiatives.

    The history of taxes in Canada has been one of important developments but also of social and economic conflicts, wrongful discrimination and colonial racism. It must not also become a history of populism and missed opportunities.

    Now is the time for Canada to write a different chapter. By advancing tax literacy, both authorities and society as a whole can strengthen democracy and build a more informed public.

    Esteban Vallejo Toledo receives funding from the Law Commission of Canada Emerging Scholars Program. He has previously received funding from SSHRC, LFBC, and UVic.

    – ref. Why tax literacy should be a national priority in Canada – https://theconversation.com/why-tax-literacy-should-be-a-national-priority-in-canada-252722

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canadians need to use the language of freedom in fighting American annexation

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Eric Van Rythoven, Instructor in Political Science, Carleton University

    Canadians looking for relief from the trade war launched by United States President Donald Trump are bound to be disappointed. The Trump administration has just announced it’s more than doubling Canadian softwood lumber duties, adding to an already punishing flurry of tariff actions.

    These tariffs are designed to squeeze Canada, pressuring us into giving up our sovereignty. And while Trump may have cooled his annexation talk lately — likely because of how it was resurrecting the Liberal Party’s fortunes in the ongoing federal election campaign — we cannot simply pretend this threat has gone away.



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    In response, Canada must use every tool at its disposal. It should leverage retaliatory tariffs and target trade action at vulnerable Republican districts if Trump targets Canada with more tariffs.

    Canadian consumers need to continue boycotting American goods and Canada should ban American firms from bidding on public contracts. It also needs to revitalize trade and diplomatic relationships with reliable allies.

    But alone, even these measures will be insufficient.

    Public diplomacy like no other

    To succeed, Canada needs the most ambitious and energetic campaign of public diplomacy in its history. The target of this campaign should not be the Trump administration, but the ultimate voice of authority in U.S. politics — the American public. Canadian diplomacy should aim to convince
    American citizens that the idea of annexing Canada, already unpopular, is a toxic betrayal of U.S. values.

    Doing so, however, requires using the right language. Public diplomacy fails when it ignores the values of its audience, and especially when the audience has a strong emotional attachment to those values.

    This means that just because something sounds righteous to Canadian ears doesn’t mean it resonates with Americans. Protecting Canadian sovereignty certainly sounds good to Canadians, but this concept is too abstract and distant from Americans’ everyday lives.

    Likewise, Canadians are fiercely proud of our identity as “good neighbours,” but most Americans live far from us and do not know us. Nor can we invoke a shared history that the majority of Americans do not remember or have never learned.

    The value of freedom

    Instead, if Canadians are going to speak to Americans, then they must speak to their culture — and in U.S. culture, no value speaks more loudly than the value of freedom. As American historian Eric Foner writes: “No idea is more fundamental to Americans’ sense of themselves as individuals and as a nation than freedom.”

    For American cognitive psychologist George Lakoff, most of contemporary U.S. politics can be read as a struggle over different conceptions of freedom. From the Declaration of Independence launching a newborn United States into a war for its freedom to the bravery of the Freedom Riders during the Civil Rights Movement, there is no other American value that has the broad resonance and emotion appeal of freedom.

    If America has a civil religion, in fact, it is almost certainly a faith in freedom.

    Canadians need to embrace this language and speak it relentlessly at every opportunity. Americans need to know that Canadians want the freedom to choose their leaders and their laws. They want the freedom to trade without the interference of tariffs. They want the freedom to choose who enters our country.

    They want the freedom to speak different languages. The want the freedom to choose what is taught in Canadian schools, for women to choose, to criticize our government, to choose who we are and who we love. And if Canadians don’t have the freedom to say “no thank you” to becoming the 51st state, then they don’t really have any freedom at all.



    Read more:
    Canada a 51st state? Here’s how American annexation could actually favour Canada

    Putting Americans on the defensive

    Embracing this language does more than simply signal shared values, it puts advocates of annexation on the defensive. By claiming the mantle of freedom, Canadians can put pro-annexation voices on the back foot by forcing them into defending an unpopular position.

    Why should Canadians lose their freedom to elect their own leaders or make their own laws, lose their independence or bend the knee to an American president? Americans would never accept a similar choice.

    Advocates of annexation, including members of the Trump administration, need to be relentlessly challenged over why they think Canadians should be deprived of their freedoms and forced to become American subjects.

    The Trump administration has spent weeks suggesting Canadians have a stark choice: endure economic pain or submit to annexation. Fortunately, the American public knows that the choice between pain and submission is never a free choice, and that the denial of freedom is profoundly un-American.

    Canada needs to tell American citizens that is exactly what their government is doing.

    Eric Van Rythoven does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Canadians need to use the language of freedom in fighting American annexation – https://theconversation.com/canadians-need-to-use-the-language-of-freedom-in-fighting-american-annexation-252366

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US v them: Trump’s tariffs and his economic vision of dominance

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, Spécialiste de la politique américaine, Sciences Po

    US President Donald Trump’s April 2 announcement of sweeping new tariffs against numerous countries isn’t just driven by (already questionable) economic reasoning. It reflects the deeply adversarial worldview embraced by the current occupant of the White House.

    Since returning to the presidency, Trump has unleashed a new wave of tariffs unprecedented in scope. Traditional allies and strategic rivals are now under the same banner, marking a radical shift in Washington’s trade policy that hardens positions taken in Trump’s first term, amplifying them with an unbridled display of power.

    Just as in 2017, when he spoke of “American carnage”, Trump paints an apocalyptic picture of the US, a country he claims has been “looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike”. This dramatic narrative is met with a double promise of “liberation” and the restoration of a new “golden age”.


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    Tariffs thus become the weapons of a nationalist crusade, where every import is an attack on sovereignty, and every export a symbolic act of reconquest.

    An authoritarian vision of international trade

    Trump’s trade doctrine is part of a broader strategy defined by confrontation, centralised executive power and a neo-imperial view of the global economy. His tariff measures go far beyond protecting domestic industry: they aim to reshape the global order according to his own interpretation of national interest. This second act of the Trumpist revolution is not a rerun, but an escalation – one based on authoritarian ambitions, the rejection of multilateralism (as seen in the administration’s utter disdain for the World Trade Organization, and the glorification of raw sovereignty.

    The supposed economic logic behind these policies is as flimsy as it is revealing. The chosen calculation method – dividing the bilateral trade deficit by import volumes – is little more than a blunt instrument to go after countries the US runs a deficit with. Officially, it’s about cutting trade deficits, bringing jobs back and raising revenue. But the real agenda runs deeper: consolidating presidential power and replacing global cooperation with a doctrine of economic domination.

    Tariffs as tools of power and messaging

    Trump’s first term has shown the limits of this strategy. The trade war with China, in particular, triggered price hikes for consumers, disrupted supply chains and severely hurt US agricultural exporters. One study found that US consumers bore the brunt of these costs, with an average 1% increase in the prices of manufactured goods.

    Trump doesn’t behave like a traditional head of state operating within a multilateral framework. He acts more like a lone ruler, dispensing rewards and punishments to serve his political – or even personal – agenda. Tariffs, in this context, function as much as media stunts as they do economic instruments. Branded as “reciprocal tariffs”, they construct a simplified and powerful narrative: that of a crusader who corrects the wrongs inflicted on citizens betrayed by free trade.

    This message hits home with workers in industries like auto manufacturing. It offers up convenient villains – China, Europe, and the domestic elite who support free trade. Trade policy is no longer about negotiation; it’s about retribution. In this worldview, the spike in tariffs isn’t just an economic manoeuvre – it’s a statement of sovereignty, even of symbolic power.

    From personal obsession to state doctrine

    Trump’s protectionism is not an overnight development, but part of a long-standing obsession. As early as 1987, he railed against Japan’s trade surpluses with the US and called for steep tariffs on Tokyo. He spoke of the US being “ripped off” and showed a near-paranoid fear of national humiliation or betrayal. At its core, this reflects a deep-seated drive to reassert dominance – to “win” in a world he views as inherently hostile and conflictual. It’s one of the few constants in Trump’s worldview, given his lack of ideological consistency and frequent U-turns on other issues.

    Today, everything is reframed as a question of sovereignty: rare earths, strategic minerals, data flows, shipping lanes. This worldview echoes the imperialist pivot of the late 19th century, especially under US president William McKinley (1897–1901) – a figure Trump pointedly invoked in his second inaugural address.

    This logic also helps explain some of his most provocative gestures: stating he wants to buy Greenland, putting pressure on Canada in hopes of access to its natural resources, and eyeing Ukraine’s mining potential. The underlying idea is blunt and unmistakeable: resources are finite, and you’d better grab your share before someone else does. In this zero-sum game, where one country’s gain is another’s loss, cooperation gives way to conquest.

    The rise of techno-nationalist mercantilism?

    In this worldview, competition isn’t seen as a source of innovation – it’s a threat to be eliminated. The aim isn’t to make America more competitive, but to sabotage the competitiveness of others. The US no longer presents itself – even rhetorically – as a democratic nation playing by the rules of global markets. Instead, it acts like a corporation determined to secure monopoly power.

    This authoritarian shift resonates with key Trumpist thinkers. Peter Thiel, a mentor to US Vice President JD Vance, famously declared that “capitalism and competition are opposites”, championing monopoly as the ultimate goal. Cuts to the federal government and sweeping deregulation aren’t about unleashing free markets – they’re about consolidating control and asserting dominance.



    À lire aussi :
    Trump protectionism and tariffs: a threat to globalisation, or to democracy itself?

    The aim now is to sidestep global systems, not to integrate them – to build an imperial-style autarky where the US controls a closed sphere of influence, shielded from outside competition. This is mercantilism reimagined for the digital age: instead of gold and silver, the currency is data, infrastructure, dollars and crypto currency. Cooperation gives way to coercion.

    Toward an authoritarian international order – or a political disaster?

    The April 2 announcement is far more than an economic decision. It’s a bold political statement – a deliberate move toward a new world order rooted in strength and loyalty, rather than law and cooperation.

    There’s undeniable continuity with Trump’s first term. But this time, the scale, radicalism and concentration of power represent a decisive escalation. Trump increasingly treats the state as his personal property – or a private business – what some have aptly called “patrimonialism”. He is shaping an authoritarian model in which trade becomes a weapon in a new kind of global cold war, driven by fear of decline and an obsession with control. In this logic, prosperity is no longer a shared national goal – it’s a privilege reserved for those in power.

    This trajectory could become politically explosive, especially as Trump faces falling markets and looming inflation – both threatening a weakening of his presidency. If he doubles down despite sinking approval ratings, Republican lawmakers may be forced – under pressure from their voters and donors – to finally push back and reassert their constitutional role. Early signs of dissent within the Republican Party are already surfacing, alongside public anger that remains scattered – but is growing harder to ignore.

    Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    – ref. US v them: Trump’s tariffs and his economic vision of dominance – https://theconversation.com/us-v-them-trumps-tariffs-and-his-economic-vision-of-dominance-254096

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canada’s aging population: The unspoken ballot box issue

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sunil Johal, Professor in Public Policy and Society, University of Toronto

    Canadians are voting in a federal election on April 28, and questions about how to deal with the United States and make Canada’s economy more resilient are dominating public discourse.

    The housing crisis, immigration policy and health-care system deficiencies are other top-of-mind concerns. But one issue we likely won’t hear much about from politicians is a trend that’s quietly shaping all of these issues: an aging population.

    Canada’s overall population is older than ever. Between 2016 and 2021, the portion of the population aged 65 and older grew to seven million people. By 2040, it’s projected that close to one-quarter of Canadians will be over the age of 65.

    That means policymakers need to think more proactively about how they can transform Canada’s existing policies to address the needs of an aging population.

    A new report we’ve published at the CSA Public Policy Centre outlines policy pathways for federal and provincial governments to consider as 2040 approaches.

    It’s time for Canadians to reimagine where we live as we grow older, transform our understanding of health and health-care services and take a whole-of-society approach to advance cultural change around the experience of aging.

    Precarious retirement

    As more baby boomers retire in the years ahead, labour productivity is expected to decline and the income tax base that supports core public services will shrink.

    At the same time, significant investments will be needed for our already strained health-care system to meet the needs of older adults living with more chronic conditions. The average cost of delivering health care is about $12,000 per person per year for those over 65, compared to only $2,700 for those under 65.

    Similarly, in the face of a years-long decline in the quality of Canada’s long-term care system and the preference of Canadians to age at home, a policy shift towards aging-in-place has become a priority.

    However, this raises important questions about social isolation, accessibility of Canada’s built environment, suitability of housing options on the market as well as the availability and affordability of necessary services.

    Recent polling shows that 95 per cent of Canadians over 45 believe that aging-in-place would maintain their independence, comfort and dignity. Yet only 12 per cent report having the funds available to receive adequate home care.

    In the absence of thoughtful policy reform, there is potential for significant disparities in health outcomes, financial security and social inclusion among older adults in the years to come.



    Read more:
    Wealthier Canadians live longer and are less likely to be dependent as they age, new research finds

    Ensuring intergenerational equity

    There is a perception that baby boomers are heading into a comfortable retirement with robust pensions and opportunities for leisure. While this may be the case for those who have accumulated or inherited wealth, others are facing the risk of poverty and homelessness.

    Data indicates that around 30 per cent of people using shelters across Canada are aged 50 or older, with many others unsheltered, living outdoors or experiencing hidden homelessness.

    With limited resources, governments will be challenged to meet the needs of older Canadians while ensuring younger Canadians can also thrive. Young Canadians are facing a housing market that feels out of reach and many are delaying the decision to start a family due to high costs of living.

    Fifty-five per cent of Canadians aged 25-44 report that rising prices are greatly affecting their ability to meet day-to-day expenses. Balancing the needs of different generations will require new ways of thinking, strategic investments and systemic cultural change.

    A path forward

    This means that, in the face of difficult decisions, resources should be allocated to those who need them most. For example, there have been calls to improve the equity of Old Age Security (OAS) — which is expected to cost $96 billion annually by 2027 — and lower income thresholds for eligibility.

    Unlike the Guaranteed Income Supplement, which is targeted to low-income Canadians over the age of 65, households with an annual income more than $300,000 may still be eligible for OAS payments.

    Similarly, vouchers could be made available to help Canadians pay for costs such as long-term care or home care services. Eligibility for programs like this should be tested against both income and wealth — access to home equity can be a significant factor in one’s ability to maintain their standard of living in retirement.

    To ensure equitable outcomes, these decisions should also be guided by meaningful engagement with diverse voices around the table, including those from older and younger generations and different lived experiences. Intergenerational dialogue can help different age groups understand each other’s challenges, collaborate on solutions and ultimately work towards solidarity and a much-needed reimagination of what it means to grow older.

    As Canadians prepare to head to the polls, we should all consider the future we want to see for ourselves and our communities as we age. Making strategic investments to improve the quality of life for older Canadians today will also lay the foundation for future generations.

    Sunil Johal is the Vice-President, Public Policy with the CSA Group and leads the CSA Public Policy Centre.

    – ref. Canada’s aging population: The unspoken ballot box issue – https://theconversation.com/canadas-aging-population-the-unspoken-ballot-box-issue-253300

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tutankhamun: plain-looking mud trays in pharaoh’s tomb have been key part of complex afterlife rituals

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Claire Isabella Gilmour, PhD Candidate, Anthropology and Archaeology, University of Bristol

    Tutankhamun’s gold burial mask and one of the plain clay trays. Roland Unger/Canva, CC BY

    More than 100 years after the discovery of the tomb of Tutankhamun in the Valley of the Kings, new interpretations of the burial are still emerging. A recent article published in the Journal of Egyptian Archaeology proposes that a set of seemingly plain, functional objects are in fact a key part of the complex rituals which would ensure the transformation and regeneration of the young king in the afterlife.

    Tutankhamun inherited a throne tainted by the shifts in religious and political practices implemented by his father, Akhenaten. His reign had been hallmarked by the move from the capital city of Thebes to a new city, Akhetaten (“the horizon of the Aten”).

    Under Akhenaten, the solar deity Aten was elevated above all others, including the principal state god Amun. This resulted in the king being the sole high priest and beneficiary (along with his family) of the Aten. The resulting disconnection between state and religion severely reduced the power and influence of priests and members of the royal court. But on Akhenaten’s death, these were restored by his son.

    Tutankhamun was named Tutankh-aten (“the living image of Aten”) at birth, but took the name of Amun back when Thebes was restored as the capital city of Egypt after his accession. This time (known as the Amarna period after the modern name of Akhenaten’s city) and its changes mean that it is more challenging to understand matters such as burial practices, religious rites and so on because it was not necessarily a “typical” time.

    Therefore, while we have learned much about funerary practices from Tutankhamun’s tomb, there are objects which are still being reinterpreted.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    The artefacts in focus are a set of four clay trays, approximately 7.5 x 4.0 x 1.2cm, plain in design and apparently quite utilitarian.

    This type of artefact is known from other funerary contexts including elsewhere in the Valley of the Kings. They have been described in various ways as mud trays, earthen dishes or troughs. The lack of consistency in terminology and suggestions on function illustrate the difficulty in understanding their precise role in the tomb.

    Along with the clay trays are a set of wooden staves, just over a metre long, with a slight angle, and covered with gesso (a white pigment and binder mixture) and gold. In spite of the difference in materials, they were assumed by the man who uncovered the tomb, Howard Carter, to be directly associated with the trays. He believed they were probably intended as bases for the staffs to stand upright.

    One of the clay trays.
    Timeless Moon Public Archive

    However, it is clear that they have an even greater function to fulfil as, contextually, everything in the tomb has symbolism and meaning, even down to the wooden boxes for preserved meats, which were intended to sustain Tutankhamun in the afterlife.

    The care with which the trays and staff were laid out on matting indicates that they were important for the king’s burial. We might expect a royal burial to be filled with only the finest objects, made of the most valuable materials by elite craftsmen, with the association of materials such as gold with royalty and divinity. The richness of the rest of Tutankhamun’s burial for the most part fulfils this expectation. But, nevertheless, the ordinariness of the clay trays in the light of such riches confirms rather than refutes their significance.

    The restoration of order

    Following the royal court’s move back to Thebes in the wake of Akhenaten’s death, the restoration of Amun and the other gods was set in motion. The cult centre of Amun at the Temple of Karnak regained its status. The name of Akhenaten and his imagery, along with that of the sun disk, were subjected to a campaign of removal.

    Tutankhamun erected the so-called Restoration Stela with titles and epithets invoking the traditional gods, and statements on “having repaired what was ruined … having repelled disorder”. The upheaval of the Amarna Period was reversed.

    Discussions in academia on the dismantling of Akhenaten’s regime have tended to focus on issues such as name changes and the destruction of his upstart city. But ancient Egyptian religion had countless centuries of recorded tradition and observance, so profound demonstrations of loyalty to the traditional gods were needed.

    Two more clay trays from Tutankhamun’s tomb.
    Timeless Moon Public Archive

    The mud trays are now thought to be part of a wider funerary ritual, which both invoked the god Osiris and permitted the transfiguration of Tutankhamun. As king, he was thought to be the embodiment of the god Horus in life, and to become Osiris in death – rejuvenated and resurrected.

    Osiris is usually shown as a mummified king, with green or black skin to represent the fertility of the land and the new life which comes from it. It is not a coincidence that the trays are made of mud.

    Other aspects of the placement of the trays within the tomb such as specific placement and orientation (including particular symbols in the decoration of the tomb) indicate that the trays had a specific role to play. This may have been as an offering tray for Nile water, once more underlining the role of the river in creating life.

    Tutankhamun and his treasures are so familiar today that it is possible to overlook, or even forget, the fact that once the doors were sealed after his funeral they were meant to never be seen again. Some of his grave goods – particularly those made from gold – have outshone others. However, the ordinariness of the trays among all the riches suggests that they are crucial components of his burial. They confirm Tutankhamun as both renewed in death through Osiris, and the king who restored order to Egypt.

    Claire Isabella Gilmour does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tutankhamun: plain-looking mud trays in pharaoh’s tomb have been key part of complex afterlife rituals – https://theconversation.com/tutankhamun-plain-looking-mud-trays-in-pharaohs-tomb-have-been-key-part-of-complex-afterlife-rituals-253479

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How storytelling, creativity and collaborations can inspire climate action

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Cecilia Manosa Nyblon, Director – We Are the Possible Programme, University of Exeter

    Imagine heading into space, landing on the moon and walking in the dust. As you adjust to the weightlessness, you see something unexpected on the horizon. You’re looking back at the Earth, experiencing the “overview effect”. How would you feel? What would you see, hear, touch, taste and smell?

    We asked these questions when we launched a creative writing workshop to harness the beauty and power of storytelling, education, theatre, and music to inspire a greener, healthier and fairer world for future generations.

    One of us, Cecilia Mañosa Nyblon, brought together a team from the University of Exeter, the Met Office and international experts including marine scientists, poets, soundscape artists, musicians, playwrights and children’s authors who recognise the power of the arts to bridge the gap between science and society.

    In 2021, our team launched We Are the Possible. This international award-winning programme brings together artists, scientists, educators and health professionals to connect hearts and minds. Together, we develop creative content and performances that are presented to policymakers and the public at annual UN climate summits and other public events.

    As Kathleen Jamie, Scotland’s makar (national poet), said during the 2021 UN climate summit in Glasgow: “We can’t have that massive event around nature and environment without a poetry presence there.”

    Since 2021, this programme has engaged more than 16,000 people in the UK, Egypt, United Arab Emirates and Azerbaijan. Our projects have reached more than 33 million people worldwide through mainstream media, social media and online platforms. By inspiring global and local audiences, we hope to mobilise communities to care for and protect our planet.

    “We Are the Possible” collaborated with artists, scientists, educators, musicians and schoolchildren to perform at Cop28, the UN climate summit, in Dubai in 2023.

    The project’s creative lead, Sally Flint, weaves the words of climate scientists, health professionals, storytellers, artists, youth, educators and translators into an anthology of 12 poems or stories for the 12 days of each UN climate summit, showing what people value most and what’s at stake in our changing planet.

    In our anthology for Cop28 (the 2023 climate summit in Dubai), Christiana Figueres, the Costa Rican diplomat who spent years negotiating for climate action at the UN summits, shared that “while this remains vital, I have also realised that connecting with people from the heart and with love is the most powerful place to start.”

    Scientists have the data. We have the technological solutions. But governments and leaders are failing to act with urgency. The climate crisis is our biggest communication failure.

    Culture has the power to help people imagine and inspire action through dialogue, images, storytelling and shared experiences. But for far too long, the arts, cultural heritage and creative industries have been absent in climate policy frameworks. In 2024, ministers of culture and education gathered in Abu Dhabi to establish a framework which recognises the transformative power and impact of culture and arts education [for sustainable development]https://www.unesco.org/sites/default/files/medias/fichiers/2024/02/WCCAE_UNESCO%20Framework_EN_0.pdf).

    Since Cop28, our team has been working with our partner, a not-for-profit called the Emirates Literature Foundation, to involve Indigenous poets through visual artforms. This involvement shines a light on the importance of Indigenous knowledge in our climate conversations to heal and restore our planet.

    We have also collaborated with a sustainable theatre company called The Theatre of Others to deliver The Earth Turns and Bright Light Burning. These immersive theatre performances (inspired by We Are the Possible anthologies) and panel discussions involve both policymakers and the public. After one of the performances, Jonathan Dewsbury, director of capital operations and net zero at the UK government’s Department for Education, told us: “If we don’t grab the arts, the poems, the music and embed them into our top policy thinkers, our top decision-makers, we are not going to make the right choices, the right solutions.”

    Carpet weaving is an important part of Azerbaijan’s cultural identity. At Cop29 (the 2024 UN climate summit in Azerbaijan), one group of academics and students at Khazar University in Baku wove a traditional “Chelebi” carpet. This conveyed a message of unity and environmental stewardship through symbolic patterns inspired by We Are the Possible’s anthology.

    Ocean-literate cultures

    Around 50% of countries have no mention of climate change in their school curriculum, according to Unesco. Most teachers (95%) feel that teaching about climate climate change is important but less than 30% say are ready to teach it. Meanwhile, 75% young people around the world say they are frightened about their future.

    Schools Across the Ocean, the education strand of We Are the Possible, is addressing this climate education gap. Led by our colleague, senior lecturer in education Anita Wood, this initiative has already connected more than 2,000 schoolchildren (aged 8-13) and more than 100 teachers in the UK, United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan and other countries.

    Inspiring children to put their words and artwork of hope about the ocean.

    This six-week programme involves providing a toolkit for teachers plus activities and online workshops that engage children in science, art, storytelling and action for the ocean. The goal is for more children to understand why we all need a healthy ocean, develop their sense of agency and inspire others in their local communities to take action too.

    Wendy Wilson, headteacher St Anne’s School in Alderney on the Channel Islands, found that Schools Across the Ocean meant that her students were not just learning about climate change. She said they were also “becoming active, global citizens who are climate literate, empowered and full of hope.”

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    We Are the Possible programme has been funded by the University of Exeter, Met Office, British Council, British Embassy Gulf Strategy Fund, British Embassy Azerbaijan, UKRI, AHRC, Knowledge E Foundation,Arts Council England and supported by Emirates Literature Foundation, American University in Cairo, Khorfakkan University, Khazar University, BIMM University, Extreme Hangout, Banlastic, Ocean Generation, Tahrir Cultural Centre, Royal Albert Memorial Museum, Exeter UNESCO City of Literature, Cygnet Theatre, among others.

    We Are the Possible programme has been funded by the University of Exeter, Met Office, British Council, British Embassy Gulf Strategy Fund, British Embassy Azerbaijan, UKRI, AHRC, Knowledge E Foundation, Arts Council England and supported by Emirates Literature Foundation, American University in Cairo, Khorfakkan University, Khazar University, BIMM University, Extreme Hangout, Banlastic, Ocean Generation, Tahrir Cultural Centre, Royal Albert Memorial Museum, Exeter UNESCO City of Literature, Cygnet Theatre, among others.

    – ref. How storytelling, creativity and collaborations can inspire climate action – https://theconversation.com/how-storytelling-creativity-and-collaborations-can-inspire-climate-action-252256

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Peru’s ancient irrigation systems succeeded in turning deserts into farms because of the culture − without it, the systems failed

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ari Caramanica, Assistant Professor of Archaeology, Vanderbilt University

    A pre-Hispanic canal funnels water from mountains to farm fields. Ari Caramanica

    Seeing the north coast of Peru for the first time, you would be hard-pressed to believe it’s one of the driest deserts in the world.

    Parts of the region receive less than an inch of rain in an entire year. Yet, water and greenery are everywhere. This is the nation’s agro-industrial heartland, and, thanks to irrigation canals, almost every inch of the floodplain is blanketed in lucrative export crops, such as sugarcane, asparagus and blueberries.

    However, the apparent success of this system masks an underlying fragility.

    Water shortages have plagued the region for centuries, and now modern climate change combined with agro-industrial practices have further intensified droughts. In response, the Peruvian government has invested billions of dollars in irrigation infrastructure in recent years designed to deliver more water from a resource more than 100 miles away: glaciers in the Andes.

    But the Andean glaciers are disappearing as global temperatures rise. Peru has lost over half its glacier surface area since 1962. At the same time, floods often connected to wet El Niño years are increasing in both frequency and intensity. These floods often destroy or obstruct critical irrigation infrastructure.

    Andean glaciers are disappearing as global temperatures rise. Peru lost over half its glacier surface area in the past half-century.
    mmphoto/DigitalVision via Getty Images

    As an archaeologist investigating societal responses to environmental and climate disaster in Peru, I’m interested in unraveling the histories of complex systems to understand how to improve similar systems today. To understand the Peruvian heartland’s vulnerabilities, it helps to look to the deep past.

    Most of the modern canal network originally dates to pre-Hispanic times, more than 1400 years ago. However, evidence suggests that while the canal systems of the past may have looked similar to those of the present, they functioned in more efficient, flexible ways. The key to adapting to our present and future climate may lie in comprehending the knowledge systems of the past – not just the equipment, technology or infrastructure, but how people used it.

    An environment of extremes

    The north coast of Peru is an environment of extremes.

    In this desert, thousands of years ago, societies encountered many of the same challenges posed by the modern climate crisis: expanding drylands, water scarcity, vulnerable food production systems, and frequent, intense natural disasters.

    Yet, people not only occupied this area for millennia, they thrived in it. Moche and Chimu societies created sophisticated, complex political and religious institutions, art and technology, and one of the largest pyramidal structures in the Americas.

    Relief of fish adorn an adobe wall in the historic Tschudi Complex archaeological site at Chan Chan, the former capital of the Chimu empire in Peru.
    FabulousFabs/Flickr, CC BY-NC

    When the Spanish arrived on the desert north coast of Peru shortly after 1532 C.E., early chroniclers remarked on the verdant, green valleys across the region.

    The Spanish immediately recognized the importance of the canal network. They had used similar canal technology in Spain for centuries. So, they set about conscripting Indigenous labor and adapting the irrigation system to their goals.

    Just a few decades later, however, historic records describe sand dunes and scrublands invading the green valleys, water shortages, and in 1578 a massive El Niño flood that nearly ended the young colony.

    So how did the Indigenous operation of this landscape succeed, where the Spanish and the modern-day agro-industrial complex have repeatedly failed?

    Culture was crucial for ancient canal systems

    Ancient beliefs, behaviors and norms – what archaeologists call culture – were fundamentally integrated into technological solutions in this part of Peru in ancient times. Isolating and removing the tools from that knowledge made them less effective.

    Scientists, policymakers and stakeholders searching for models of sustainable agriculture and climate adaptations can look to the archaeological record. Successfully applying past practices to today’s challenges requires learning about the cultures that put those tools to work effectively for so long, so long ago.

    The pre-Hispanic societies of Peru developed agricultural principles around the realities of the desert, which included both dry seasons and flash floods.

    Large-scale irrigation infrastructure was combined with low-cost, easily modified canals. Aqueducts doubled as sediment traps to capture nutrients. Canal branches channeled both river water and floodwater. Even check-dams – small dams used to control high-energy floods – worked in multiple ways. Usually made of mounded cobble and gravel, they reduced the energy of flash floods, captured rich sediments and recharged the water table.

    A drone’s view of sugarcane fields shows a pre-Hispanic adobe aqueduct on the right and small feeder canals in the modern fields.
    Ari Caramanica

    The initial failures of the Spanish on the north coast exemplify the problem of trying to adopt technology without understanding the cultural insights behind it: While they may be identical in form, a Spanish canal isn’t a Moche canal.

    Spanish canals operated in a temperate climate and were managed by individual farmers who could maintain or increase their water flow. The Moche and Chimu canal was tied to a complex labor system that synchronized cleaning and maintenance and prioritized the efficient use of water. What’s more, Moche canals functioned in tandem with floodwater diversion canals, which activated during El Niño events to create niches of agricultural productivity amid disasters.

    A handmade gate on a modern canal in northern Peru doesn’t seem that different from ancient canals, but the pre-Hispanic canal systems were generally more conceptually complex and interconnected.
    Ari Caramanica

    Desert farming required flexibility and multifunctionality from its infrastructure. Achieving that often meant forgoing impermeable materials and permanent designs, which stands in stark contrast to the way modern-day water management works are constructed.

    Copying ancient practices without the culture

    Today, the Peruvian government is pushing forward with a decades-old, multibillion-dollar project to deliver water to the north coast from a glacier-fed river.

    The Chavimochic project promises a grand transformation, turning desert into productive farmland. But it may be sacrificing long-term resilience for short-term prosperity.

    The project feeds on the temporary abundance of glacial meltwater. This is creating a water boom as the ice melts, but it will inevitably be followed by a devastating water bust as the glaciers all but disappear, which scientists estimate could happen by the end of the 21st century.

    Farmers sell locally grown corn and other crops at a street market in Piura, Peru.
    Christian Ender/Getty Images

    Meanwhile, sustainable land management practices of past Indigenous inhabitants continue to support ecosystems hundreds and even thousands of years later. Studies show higher levels of biodiversity, crucial to ecosystem health, near archaeological sites.

    On the Peruvian north coast, pre-Hispanic infrastructure continues to capture floodwater during El Niño events. When their modern-day fields are flooded or destroyed by these events, farmers will sometimes move their crops to areas surrounding archaeological remains where their corn, squash and bean plants can tap into the trapped water and sediments and safely grow without the need for further irrigation.

    Critics might point out the difficulty of scaling up ancient technologies for global applications, find them rudimentary, or would prefer to appropriate the design without bothering with understanding “the cultural stuff.”

    But this framing misses the bigger point: What made these technologies effective was the cultural stuff. Not just the tools but how they were used by the societies operating them. As long as modern engineering solutions try to update ancient technologies without considering the cultures that made them function, these projects will struggle.

    Understanding the past matters

    Archaeologists have an important role to play in building a climate-resilient future, but any meaningful progress would benefit from a historical approach that considers multiple ways of understanding the environment, of operating an irrigation canal and of organizing an agriculture-based economy.

    That approach, in my view, begins with saving indigenous languages, where cultural logic is deeply embedded, as well as preserving archaeological and sacred sites, and creating partnerships built on trust with the people who have worked with the land and whose cultures have adapted their practices to the changing climate for thousands of years.

    Ari Caramanica receives funding from The National Endowment for the Humanities.

    – ref. Peru’s ancient irrigation systems succeeded in turning deserts into farms because of the culture − without it, the systems failed – https://theconversation.com/perus-ancient-irrigation-systems-succeeded-in-turning-deserts-into-farms-because-of-the-culture-without-it-the-systems-failed-251199

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tutankhamun: plain-looking mud trays in pharaoh’s tomb have been been key part of complex afterlife rituals

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Claire Isabella Gilmour, PhD Candidate, Anthropology and Archaeology, University of Bristol

    Tutankhamun’s gold burial mask and one of the plain clay trays. Roland Unger/Canva, CC BY

    More than 100 years after the discovery of the tomb of Tutankhamun in the Valley of the Kings, new interpretations of the burial are still emerging. A recent article published in the Journal of Egyptian Archaeology proposes that a set of seemingly plain, functional objects are in fact a key part of the complex rituals which would ensure the transformation and regeneration of the young king in the afterlife.

    Tutankhamun inherited a throne tainted by the shifts in religious and political practices implemented by his father, Akhenaten. His reign had been hallmarked by the move from the capital city of Thebes to a new city, Akhetaten (“the horizon of the Aten”).

    Under Akhenaten, the solar deity Aten was elevated above all others, including the principal state god Amun. This resulted in the king being the sole high priest and beneficiary (along with his family) of the Aten. The resulting disconnection between state and religion severely reduced the power and influence of priests and members of the royal court. But on Akhenaten’s death, these were restored by his son.

    Tutankhamun was named Tutankh-aten (“the living image of Aten”) at birth, but took the name of Amun back when Thebes was restored as the capital city of Egypt after his accession. This time (known as the Amarna period after the modern name of Akhenaten’s city) and its changes mean that it is more challenging to understand matters such as burial practices, religious rites and so on because it was not necessarily a “typical” time.

    Therefore, while we have learned much about funerary practices from Tutankhamun’s tomb, there are objects which are still being reinterpreted.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    The artefacts in focus are a set of four clay trays, approximately 7.5 x 4.0 x 1.2cm, plain in design and apparently quite utilitarian.

    This type of artefact is known from other funerary contexts including elsewhere in the Valley of the Kings. They have been described in various ways as mud trays, earthen dishes or troughs. The lack of consistency in terminology and suggestions on function illustrate the difficulty in understanding their precise role in the tomb.

    Along with the clay trays are a set of wooden staves, just over a metre long, with a slight angle, and covered with gesso (a white pigment and binder mixture) and gold. In spite of the difference in materials, they were assumed by the man who uncovered the tomb, Howard Carter, to be directly associated with the trays. He believed they were probably intended as bases for the staffs to stand upright.

    One of the clay trays.
    Timeless Moon Public Archive

    However, it is clear that they have an even greater function to fulfil as, contextually, everything in the tomb has symbolism and meaning, even down to the wooden boxes for preserved meats, which were intended to sustain Tutankhamun in the afterlife.

    The care with which the trays and staff were laid out on matting indicates that they were important for the king’s burial. We might expect a royal burial to be filled with only the finest objects, made of the most valuable materials by elite craftsmen, with the association of materials such as gold with royalty and divinity. The richness of the rest of Tutankhamun’s burial for the most part fulfils this expectation. But, nevertheless, the ordinariness of the clay trays in the light of such riches confirms rather than refutes their significance.

    The restoration of order

    Following the royal court’s move back to Thebes in the wake of Akhenaten’s death, the restoration of Amun and the other gods was set in motion. The cult centre of Amun at the Temple of Karnak regained its status. The name of Akhenaten and his imagery, along with that of the sun disk, were subjected to a campaign of removal.

    Tutankhamun erected the so-called Restoration Stela with titles and epithets invoking the traditional gods, and statements on “having repaired what was ruined … having repelled disorder”. The upheaval of the Amarna Period was reversed.

    Discussions in academia on the dismantling of Akhenaten’s regime have tended to focus on issues such as name changes and the destruction of his upstart city. But ancient Egyptian religion had countless centuries of recorded tradition and observance, so profound demonstrations of loyalty to the traditional gods were needed.

    Two more clay trays from Tutankhamun’s tomb.
    Timeless Moon Public Archive

    The mud trays are now thought to be part of a wider funerary ritual, which both invoked the god Osiris and permitted the transfiguration of Tutankhamun. As king, he was thought to be the embodiment of the god Horus in life, and to become Osiris in death – rejuvenated and resurrected.

    Osiris is usually shown as a mummified king, with green or black skin to represent the fertility of the land and the new life which comes from it. It is not a coincidence that the trays are made of mud.

    Other aspects of the placement of the trays within the tomb such as specific placement and orientation (including particular symbols in the decoration of the tomb) indicate that the trays had a specific role to play. This may have been as an offering tray for Nile water, once more underlining the role of the river in creating life.

    Tutankhamun and his treasures are so familiar today that it is possible to overlook, or even forget, the fact that once the doors were sealed after his funeral they were meant to never be seen again. Some of his grave goods – particularly those made from gold – have outshone others. However, the ordinariness of the trays among all the riches suggests that they are crucial components of his burial. They confirm Tutankhamun as both renewed in death through Osiris, and the king who restored order to Egypt.

    Claire Isabella Gilmour does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tutankhamun: plain-looking mud trays in pharaoh’s tomb have been been key part of complex afterlife rituals – https://theconversation.com/tutankhamun-plain-looking-mud-trays-in-pharaohs-tomb-have-been-been-key-part-of-complex-afterlife-rituals-253479

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How dentists could help tackle obesity in children

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jessica Large, Doctoral Researcher, Centre for Lifestyle Medicine and Behaviour (CLiMB), Loughborough University

    © World Obesity , CC BY-NC-SA

    As a specialty registrar in paediatric dentistry, I’ve seen first-hand the pain children experience because of poor oral health. Tooth decay happens when teeth are damaged by acids produced by oral bacteria breaking down sugar from foods and drinks – and although it’s largely preventable – it’s the most common reason for hospital admission in children aged between five and nine in England.

    Tooth decay in children is also linked to obesity. Childhood obesity increases the risk of developing other diseases throughout childhood and into adulthood, including diabetes, high blood pressure and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

    My research, conducted with colleagues at Loughborough University, explores how acceptable and feasible it is for dental teams to offer weight checks and support, such as referral to weight loss programmes, to patients during routine appointments. In my job as a paediatric dentist, I discuss weight and health with families and offer referral to local healthy lifestyle services.

    The World Health Organization estimates that 43% of children have decay worldwide and 20% of children aged 5-19 years are overweight or living with obesity.

    In England, 29.3% of five-year-olds have tooth decay and 21.3% of four and five year olds are overweight or living with obesity. A diet high in sugary foods and drinks increases the risk of developing both conditions. and evidence suggests that children who are overweight or living with obesity are more likely to have tooth decay.

    Mouth disease is also linked with disease in other parts of the body. Gum disease, for example, is an infection of the tissues that support teeth, which has links with type 2 diabetes. When one disease is poorly controlled, it can make the other worse. The number of children with type 2 diabetes is increasing, with excess weight increasing the risk of developing this condition.

    Given the links between diet, tooth decay, obesity, type 2 diabetes, as well as other diseases that can develop when living with obesity, dental teams may be ideal professionals to tackle both tooth decay and obesity. It can be difficult to see an NHS dentist in the UK but NHS dental teams do see millions of children every year and already advise families on reducing sugary foods and drinks in the diet to reduce the risk of tooth decay.

    Dental teams taking body measurements is not new. Height and weight measurements to calculate body mass index (BMI), a measure of body fat, are already collected by some dental teams. These measurements are helpful when prescribing medication and for planning dental treatment for children who need a general anaesthetic or sedation.

    Some hospital dental teams, such as in Edinburgh and Dundee in Scotland, also offer weight and height checks for children and young people as part of routine appointments. The child’s weight is discussed with the child’s parent or carer in a sensitive way and families are offered referral to a local service to support healthy lifestyle changes.

    This opportunity to support a child with their oral health as well as weight aligns with the NHS initiative, Making Every Contact Count. Making Every Contact Count calls on all health care professionals to take every opportunity within their appointments with patients to help improve patient health.

    Children living in more deprived areas of the UK are at least twice as likely to be living with overweight and obesity. They’re also three times as likely to have tooth decay. The NHS aims to reduce these inequalities among children and has chosen oral health and diabetes as two key areas to improve care for children and young people.

    The public have shown support for dental teams to talk about weight at dental visits and offer guidance to lose weight and improve health when done in a supportive way. Research published in 2024, found that over 80% of the public supported weight measurements being taken by dental teams and a discussion of weight at dental appointments. Most of the studies in this review came from the USA.

    A UK based survey asked parents and carers if they would feel comfortable with their child(ren)’s weight and height being taken at a dental appointment in a dental practice. The survey found 58% of parents and carers would feel comfortable and a further 12% might feel comfortable with this approach.

    This was very similar to how adults completing the survey felt about having their own height and weight measured at a dental appointment with 60% reporting they would feel comfortable and a further 10% saying they may feel comfortable.

    Discussing weight can feel uneasy and dental teams say they worry they will upset patients if they talk about weight. Some studies have found dental teams are also concerned they do not have enough time to talk about weight and that they have not had training on how to do this.

    However, studies have found when weight checks and support are offered to families by trained dental teams, help is well received and lack of time rarely a problem.

    Dental decay and obesity are preventable in many cases. Both conditions can continue into adulthood with the risk of developing other health problems.

    Research shows that dental teams are willing to provide support and that children and their families are open to receiving help for obesity. Dental teams do have an important role to play, as well as GPs and allied healthcare professionals, in tackling obesity in children as well as tooth decay.

    Jessica Large does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How dentists could help tackle obesity in children – https://theconversation.com/how-dentists-could-help-tackle-obesity-in-children-252258

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Nato is struggling to rebuild itself in an increasingly threatening world

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amelia Hadfield, Head of Department of Politics, University of Surrey

    In the years after Nato was formed in 1949, its US and European members had a collective approach to defence with clear goals in common, largely built around the protection of western Europe against the Soviet Union. Throughout this era, the US and Europe both relied on the stability of the international system by creating international cooperation on shared dilemmas.

    Fast forward more than 70 years, and there is now a ticking clock on reinventing the transatlantic alliance.

    European security and US-led Nato security are no longer one and the same. Certainly, recent statements from US leaders that the US will prioritise empowering Europe to own responsibility for its own security has made for tough listening in Europe.

    For some, this may be an overdue opportunity to fundamentally rework the transatlantic security relationship. For others, such statements are worryingly set against the backdrop of Trump’s pro-Russia stance, with Trump’s demands sounding sinister at best.

    Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte recently outlined a need to “build a stronger, a fairer and more lethal NATO”. Global threats were creating a more dangerous world, he argued.

    Mark Rutte, Nato’s secretary-general, speaks at a 2025 meeting in Brussels,

    From its establishment by 12 states on April 4, 1949, until the end of the cold war era, Nato was focused on one big thing: deterring Soviet aggression. Ultimately, Nato had one job, one enemy, one threat, one theatre and one instrument of power.

    It was a partnership that enabled the US to build and maintain a more permanent role in European security. This collective security plan prevented the US from falling back into isolationist foreign policies that it had held before the second world war

    Arguably, US attitudes fluctuated throughout this era. Initially the country sought a temporary role in Nato, with limited military commitment. It also encouraged western European Nato members to take early and primary responsibility for defence.

    However, the huge Soviet nuclear threat hardened US attitudes. And Nato came to be seen as key to the US’s overall ability to prevent a Soviet invasion of western Europe. Equally important was the role of the Marshall Plan, a massive post-war reconstruction plan for Europe, which (in conjunction with Nato) represented the US’s desire to work with European partners to both stabilise the region, and ensure democracy.

    Through the decades that followed, the US saw Nato as a cornerstone of its foreign policy. It is important to remember that transactionality has always been an integral part of the transatlantic relationship, but it was never at the expense of the values that underpinned it, and indeed reinforced both US national and European regional interests in doing so.

    Throughout the 1990s, and well into the 2000s, Nato clearly represented the US’s preferred method of maintaining its military presence in Europe (including US bases, weapons and troops stationed in member countries). The US drove the redefinition of post-cold war Nato, to include former Warsaw Pact countries including Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.



    Read more:
    US and Russia squabble over Arctic security as melting ice opens up shipping routes

    The question now is whether US leadership in Nato was focused so extensively on security of Europe and pushing back against the Soviets that for a long time the dilemma of who paid for what was essentially set aside.

    Long overdue problems?

    But two wake-up calls were to come. The first was the increasingly clear indications from US administrations from Barack Obama’s presidency onwards that the US was ill at ease with Nato as a whole, and it was unhappy with the lower financial commitment, than the US, coming from European members.

    The second was in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea. Unfortunately, the first warning sign by Obama was largely ignored; and when Russia invaded Crimea, Nato did not step up to push back against Putin’s expansionism.

    Now, Nato finds itself once again in the crosshairs of US anger about funding, and with Trump furious at European defence spending levels, and determined to massively revise the transatlantic bargain.

    Trump’s first administration put spending from European Nato members firmly on the table. His recent position is merely a continuation of that theme.

    From the European perspective, the US was, and is, a key part of the collective security structure that has empowered European defence and deterrence, but possibly with an out-of-date funding model.

    Trump, meanwhile, appears to see the US’s involvement as politically naïve. He seems to view Nato as strategically futile and defence spending imbalances as an indication that Nato is nothing more than a giant security racket.

    What is stark is the reversal between the US having helped found Nato and as the leading nation backing of a rule-bound global system under international law and Trump’s preference to reject any responsibilities for global leadership and stability.

    What has come as a shock to European members is not perhaps the demands regarding improving defence funding, but the abdication of US leadership and the threat to leave Nato completely, with no ongoing US responsibility to defend the world order.

    The onus is now on European Nato members to make both serious and swift changes. Indications of far more serious financial commitments, including from Germany, are emerging. European defence spending overall increased by 11.7% over the last year to roughly €423.3 billion (£371 billion), representing ten years of consecutive regional growth.

    Next steps include focusing on AI-led technologies, cheap drones, digital tech and improved commitments to joint projects.

    But the hardest task is also the most urgent. Namely, to avoid the chaos of a unilateral US withdrawal from Nato.

    There’s a need to move the financial and military burden to Europe in a way agreeable to the US before the Nato summit in June. Discussions on how to achieve this need to cover everything from nuclear deterrence to challenges arising from the conflict in Ukraine.

    Whether Rutte and European states can indeed preserve and maintain the collective security foundations on which Nato was first built remains to be seen. But, certainly, the current world situation is no less dangerous that the world in which Nato itself was first built.

    Amelia Hadfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Nato is struggling to rebuild itself in an increasingly threatening world – https://theconversation.com/why-nato-is-struggling-to-rebuild-itself-in-an-increasingly-threatening-world-253494

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What autistic people think should be prioritised in education for autistic learners

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Laura Gormley, Assistant Professor in Education, Dublin City University

    wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock

    The education of autistic children and young people in western societies has been heavily influenced by a medicalised understanding of autism. This means considering autism as a disorder, with a focus on correcting autistic people’s perceived lacks, rather than building on their strengths.

    Autistic learners’ strengths, interests, preferences, goals and values were typically sidelined. Making the learner appear less autistic was the main focus.

    This included increasing eye contact and building neurotypical social skills. It involved attempting to reduce stimming: self-stimulatory behaviour, which can include chewing on objects, fidgeting, watching moving objects, and making repetitive sounds.



    Read more:
    Autistic stimming explained – and why stopping it can lead to burnout

    However, the neurodiversity movement – a social advocacy movement that promotes the idea that neurological differences are an expected and normal part of human variation – has challenged these assumptions. Instead of the autistic learner being viewed as disabled, it suggests the educational environment can be disabling for the autistic learner.

    This contrasts with the past when school norms typically did not support the strengths and needs of autistic learners. These children were expected to fit in.

    What autistic people want

    The autistic voice has been largely missing from educational research and policymaking. My research study with colleagues, co-produced with autistic researchers, set out to change this. We wanted to identify the educational priorities of adult members of the autistic community, as well as teachers supporting autistic learners, in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

    We did this by carrying out a survey comprising 34 autistic adults with no role in education (non-educators), ten autistic educators, and 65 non-autistic educators who supported autistic learners. We asked them about priority goals to be included in individual education plans for autistic learners.

    The individual education plan is the foundation of inclusive and special education in many countries. It serves as an educational map that charts the learner’s current level of performance and their annual goals. It lays out the steps and resources needed to reach these goals.

    In countries such as Finland, the US and UK, an individual learning plan is legally mandated for all learners who make use of special education services. However, this is not the case in the Republic of Ireland. Provisions were made in the 2004 Education for Persons with Special Education Needs Act. Over 20 years later, though, individual education plans are still not compulsory, regulated or assessed in the Republic of Ireland.

    This lack of oversight has occurred against the backdrop of a 600% increase in special classes in the Republic of Ireland from 2013 to 2023. Autism classes accounted for 89% of these – 2,466 classes out of a total of 2,754.

    Before carrying out the survey, we expected very little overlap in the goal priorities of autistic respondents and non-autistic respondents. We were wrong. Our findings clearly showed significant overlap in the priorities across the groups.

    Our survey respondents prioritised goals that promote autonomy, social inclusion and communication. They saw these goals as contributing positively to autistic wellbeing.

    Learning goals that focused on social inclusion were a priority.
    wavebreakmedia/Shutterstock

    On the other hand, academic goals did not feature as a priority for the vast majority of respondents. Academic goals include reading comprehension, writing skills, critical thinking, time management, problem solving and maths skills.

    It could be argued that this does a disservice to the educational potential of autistic learners. However, while academic goals are important, wellbeing must come first. Without a strong foundation of physical and mental health, meaningful academic success is difficult to achieve.

    Finally, all groups actively discouraged educational goals that focused on improving eye contact and reducing stimming. The overriding consensus was that a focus on changing these aspects of behaviour is detrimental to a learner’s ability to work towards meaningful and functional educational goals including independence, wellbeing and social inclusion.

    Prioritising wellbeing

    There is growing support for prioritising wellbeing, communication, socialisation and daily living skills over more academic goals. However, teachers may not be equipped to design, teach and monitor goals that align with these priorities of the autistic community.

    Teachers in a UK study cited several barriers to supporting autistic learners in their classrooms. Their greatest frustration came from having limited access to autism-specific knowledge and expertise during their initial teacher training.

    Similar frustrations were also reported among Irish teachers. Many teachers in the study thought a specialised qualification should be compulsory for those teaching in autism classes.

    However, autism prevalence rates are on the rise, and there is an international trend towards inclusive education – educating children with special educational needs in mainstream classrooms. This means there is a growing likelihood that teachers will find themselves supporting autistic learners.

    Research shows that teachers’ attitudes, knowledge and skills towards inclusion are improved if they can go on placements during their training to schools that emphasise a culture of inclusion.

    Partnerships between universities and schools could be an important way to make this happen. This could help empower student teachers to go on to design and support effective individual education plans for their autistic learners.

    However, without a legal mandate for individual education plans in the Republic of Ireland, initial teacher education and teacher professional development programmes will continue to struggle to effectively prepare teachers for this part of their role.

    Laura Gormley works as an assistant professor in Dublin City university and received seed funding from SCoTENS (The Standing Conference on Teacher Education, North and South) to carry out this study.

    – ref. What autistic people think should be prioritised in education for autistic learners – https://theconversation.com/what-autistic-people-think-should-be-prioritised-in-education-for-autistic-learners-250195

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump thinks tariffs can bring back the glory days of US manufacturing. Here’s why he’s wrong

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By James Scott, Reader in International Politics, King’s College London

    The “liberation day” tariffs announced by US president Donald Trump have one thing in common – they are being applied to goods only. Trade in services between the US and its partners is not affected. This is the perfect example of Trump’s peculiar focus on trade in goods and, by extension, his nostalgic but outdated obsession with manufacturing.

    The fallout from liberation day continues, with markets down around the world. The decision to apply tariffs on a country-by-country basis means that rules about where a product is deemed to come from are now of central importance.

    The stakes for getting it wrong could be high. Trump has threatened that anyone seeking to avoid tariffs by shifting the supposed origin of a product to a country with lower rates could face a ten-year jail term.

    The White House initially refused to specify how it came up with the tariff levels. But it appears that each country’s rate was arrived at by taking the US goods trade deficit with that country, dividing it by the value of that country’s goods exports to the US and then halving it, with 10% set as the minimum.

    It has been noted that this is effectively the approach suggested by AI platforms like ChatGPT, Claude and Grok when asked how to create “an even playing field”.

    Economically, Trump’s fixation on goods makes no sense. This view is not unique to the president (though he feels it unusually strongly). There is a broader fetishisation of manufacturing in many countries. One theory is that it is potentially ingrained in human thinking by pre-historic experiences of finding food, fuel and shelter dominating all other activities.

    But for Trump, the thinking is likely related to a combination of nostalgia for a bygone (somewhat imagined) age of manufacturing, and concern over the loss of quality jobs that provide a solid standard of living for blue collar workers – a core part of his political base.

    Nostalgia is not a sensible basis for forming economic policy. But the role emotions play in international affairs has been receiving more attention. It has been identified as an “emotional turn” (where the importance of emotion is recognised) in the discipline of international relations.

    Of course, that’s not to say that the concern over jobs and the unequal effects of globalisation is misplaced. It is clear that blue-collar workers have suffered in the US (and elsewhere) for the last 40 to 50 years, with governments paying little attention to the decline.

    Many blue-collar workers, like these GM car plant employees in Missouri, have paid a high price for globalisation.
    Jon Rehg/Shutterstock

    Data on weekly earnings in the US split by educational level show that wages for those without a degree have declined or stagnated since around 1973, particularly among men. This is the cohort that disproportionately voted for Trump. Globalisation has created many benefits, not least to the United States, but these tend to be concentrated among the better educated.

    All too often the service-sector jobs that have filled the gap left by declining manufacturing have been precarious. That means low wages, low security, lack of union representation and few opportunities for moving up the ladder. It is unsurprising that there has been a backlash.

    Can’t turn back the clock

    So will Trump’s tariffs plan address this? The great tragedy is that there is little reason to think that they will.

    The loss of manufacturing jobs is partly about globalisation, which Trump is seeking to reverse. But research shows that trade and globalisation are often more of a scapegoat than a driving force, responsible for only a small chunk of job losses (typically said to be about 10%).

    The main cause of manufacturing’s decline is rising productivity. Today it simply requires fewer people to make goods due to the relentless increase in automation and the associated rise in how much each worker produces.

    If the whole US trade deficit were rebalanced through expanding domestic industries, this would increase the share of manufacturing employment within the US by about one percentage point, from about 8% today to 9% according to US Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. This is not going to be transformative.

    The effects of tariffs are also doubled-edged. They will probably shift some manufacturing back to the US – but this could be self-defeating. More US steel production is good for workers, but the higher cost of US steel feeds through to higher prices for the products manufactured with it.

    This includes the cars Trump obsesses about. Less competitive prices means lower exports and a loss of jobs. The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away.

    The 1950s were a unique time. By the end of the second world war, the US was a manufacturing powerhouse, accounting for one third of the world’s exports while taking only around a tenth of its imports.

    There were few other industrialised countries at the time, and these had been flattened by the war. The US alone had avoided this, creating a world of massive demand for US exports since nowhere else had a significant manufacturing base. That was never going to last forever.

    The other point about that time in history is that the economic system had been shaped by colonialism. European powers had used their position of power to prevent the rest of the world from industrialising. As those empires were dismantled and the shackles came off, those newly independent countries began their own processes of industrialisation.

    As for the US today, President Trump is mistaken if he really believes that tariffs will bring a new golden age of manufacturing. The world has changed.

    James Scott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump thinks tariffs can bring back the glory days of US manufacturing. Here’s why he’s wrong – https://theconversation.com/trump-thinks-tariffs-can-bring-back-the-glory-days-of-us-manufacturing-heres-why-hes-wrong-253991

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Cities that want to attract business might want to focus less on financial incentives and more on making people feel safe

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kaitlyn DeGhetto, Associate Professor of Management, University of Dayton

    To attract business investment, American cities and states offer companies billions of dollars in incentives, such as tax credits. As the theory goes, when governments create a business-friendly environment, it encourages investment, leading to job creation and economic growth.

    While this theory may seem logical on its face, it’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation. Business investment follows employees, not just the other way around. In fact, our research suggests workers care less about whether a city has business-friendly policies and more about how safe they feel living in it. And interestingly, we found that politics influence people’s risk perceptions more than hard data such as crime statistics.

    Our findings have major implications for cities and businesses. If people choose where to live and work based on perceived safety rather than economic incentives, then entrepreneurs and city leaders may need to rethink how they approach growth and investment.

    The many faces of risk

    We are management professors who surveyed more than 500 employees and entrepreneurs from across the country to better understand how they rate 25 large U.S. cities on various dimensions of risk.

    We asked about three different types of risk: risk related to crime, government function and social issues. Risk related to government function includes corruption and instability, while risk related to social issues includes potential infringements on individual rights.

    We found that people’s views of risk weren’t driven primarily by objective statistics, such as FBI crime data. Instead, they were shaped by factors such as media representations, word of mouth and geographic stereotypes.

    For example, studies suggest that crime in Denver has been rising, and U.S. News and World Report recently ranked it as the 10th most dangerous city based on FBI crime reports. However, the employees and entrepreneurs we surveyed ranked Denver as the safest city in the country.

    It’s all politics

    We found that political perspectives were the main factor biasing the rankings. For example, conservative-leaning employees and entrepreneurs believed that Portland, Oregon, is dangerous, ranking it as America’s ninth-riskiest city. In contrast, those who are liberal-leaning ranked it as the second-safest city in the country.

    Both of these beliefs can’t be accurate. Instead, when basing the ranking on objective crime data from the FBI, U.S. News ranked Portland the 15th most dangerous city in the country.

    When assessing risk related to how the government functions, conservatives praised politicians in Nashville, Charlotte and Dallas, while the liberals praised those in Denver, Minneapolis and Portland. Similarly, when considering risk related to social issues, conservatives said New York City, Los Angeles and San Francisco were “risky,” while the liberals said Tampa, Miami and Houston should be avoided.

    Our findings also suggest that political perspectives influence the types of risk that employers and employees care about. For example, conservatives tend to care more about crime-related risk than liberals, and liberals care more about risk related to social issues.

    Now what?

    We’re not advocating that city leaders drop financial incentives altogether, or that employers ignore them. Evidence suggests that financial incentives and other business-friendly policies may be effective at attracting businesses and strengthening local economies.

    However, our research suggests that when individuals are making important life decisions about where to live, work and invest, a city’s level of risk matters. Importantly, beliefs about risk are subjective and are biased by political perspectives.

    In our view, city leaders must recognize and address concerns about crime, governance and social issues while actively working to improve public perceptions of their cities. Likewise, businesses may want to consider investing in cities that are less politically polarized when making investment decisions.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Cities that want to attract business might want to focus less on financial incentives and more on making people feel safe – https://theconversation.com/cities-that-want-to-attract-business-might-want-to-focus-less-on-financial-incentives-and-more-on-making-people-feel-safe-250247

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Providing farmworkers with health insurance is worth it for their employers − new research

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By John Lowrey, Assistant Professor of Supply Chain and Health Sciences, Northeastern University

    Farmworkers at Del Bosque Farms pick and pack melons on a mobile platform in Firebaugh, Calif., in July 2021. AP Photo/Terry Chea

    Agricultural employers who provide farmworkers with health insurance earn higher profits, even after accounting for the cost of that coverage. In addition, farmworkers who get health insurance through their employers are more productive and earn more money than those who do not.

    These are the key findings from our study published in the March 2025 issue of the American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

    To conduct this research, we crunched over three decades of data from the Labor Department’s National Agricultural Workers Survey. We focused on California, the nation’s largest producer of fruits, nuts and other labor-intensive agricultural products in the U.S., from 1989 to 2022.

    We determined that if 20% more farmworkers got health insurance coverage, they would have earned $23,063 a year in 2022, up from $22,482 if they did not. Their employers, meanwhile, would earn $7,303 in net profits per worker annually in this same scenario, versus $6,598.

    Why it matters

    Roughly half of California’s agricultural employers are facing labor shortages at a time when the average age of U.S. farmworkers is also rising.

    Some of them, including grape producers, are responding by investing more heavily in labor-saving equipment, which helps reduce the need for seasonal manual labor. However, automated harvesting isn’t yet a viable or affordable option for labor-intensive specialty crops such as melons and strawberries.

    Despite labor shortages, agricultural employers may be reluctant to increase total compensation for farmworkers. They may also be wary of providing additional benefits such as health insurance for two main reasons.

    First, seasonal workers are, by definition, transient, meaning that the employer who provides coverage may not necessarily be the same one who benefits from a healthier worker. Second, it costs an employer money but doesn’t necessarily benefit them in the future if the worker moves on.

    Most U.S. farmworkers are immigrants from Mexico or Central America. Roughly 42% are immigrants who are in the U.S. without legal authorization, down from 55% in the early 2000s.

    As the share of farmworkers who are unauthorized immigrants has declined, the share who are U.S. citizens – including those born here – has grown and now stands at about 39%.

    The low wages farmworkers earn offer little incentive for more U.S. citizens and permanent residents to take these jobs. These jobs might become more attractive if employers offered health care coverage to protect the health of the worker and their household.

    Farmworkers who lack legal authorization to be in the U.S. are not eligible for private health insurance policies, and many can’t enroll in Medicaid, a government-run health insurance program that’s primarily for low-income Americans and people with disabilities. Regardless, some employers do take steps to help them gain access to health care services. As of 2025, a large share of farmworkers remain uninsured, including many citizens and immigrants with legal status.

    Limited access to health care is an unfortunate reality for farmworkers, whose jobs are physically demanding and dangerous. In addition, farmworkers are paid at or near the minimum wage and are constantly searching for their next employment opportunity. This uncertainty causes high levels of stress, which can contribute to chronic health issues such as hypertension.

    What still isn’t known

    It is hard to estimate the effect of employer-provided health insurance on workers and employers, since labor market outcomes are a result of highly complex interactions.

    For example, wages, productivity and how long someone keeps their job are highly interdependent variables determined by the interaction between what workers seek and what employers offer. And wages do not always reflect a worker’s skills and abilities, as some people are more willing to accept a job with low pay if their compensation includes good benefits such as health insurance.

    The Research Brief is a short take about interesting academic work.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Providing farmworkers with health insurance is worth it for their employers − new research – https://theconversation.com/providing-farmworkers-with-health-insurance-is-worth-it-for-their-employers-new-research-253200

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The founder kings of Silicon Valley: Dual-class stock gives US social media company controllers nearly as much power as ByteDance has over TikTok

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Gregory H. Shill, Professor of Law & Michael and Brenda Sandler Faculty Fellow in Corporate Law, University of Iowa

    When Congress passed a law in 2024 to ban TikTok unless it came under U.S. ownership, lawmakers argued that the app’s Chinese parent company posed national security concerns. The Trump administration, which had granted the viral video app a reprieve shortly after taking office in January 2025, extended that pause again on April 4 after the Chinese government reportedly scuttled a planned deal.

    Regardless of how this all shakes out, the TikTok fight underscores deeper concerns about who controls social media in the United States.

    Given that worry, it might surprise Americans to learn that nearly every social media giant is controlled by just one or two men. For example, Mark Zuckerberg controls Meta, which owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, while Larry Page and Sergey Brin control Alphabet, which owns YouTube and Google.

    What does “control” mean? These companies are publicly traded – anybody can buy or sell their shares – but a legal mechanism known as dual-class stock gives founders extra votes in shareholder decisions. The dual-class structure crowns these men “corporate royalty,” as one former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission commissioner has put it, granting them near-absolute control of corporate policy and resources without requiring them to take on commensurate financial risk.

    While TikTok is unusual in many respects, the way it vests power in one man is actually quite banal. TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, is privately held, but it’s reportedly controlled by a co-founder, Chinese national Zhang Yiming, via a dual-class structure.

    As a professor of corporate law, I’d urge policymakers and the public to consider the societal risks of a system that allows a single person to wield full control over a major corporation through dual-class stock.

    The dual-class effect: Meta as a case study

    In a standard single-class structure – where voting power tracks the amount of company equity a shareholder owns – someone seeking total control of a company must ordinarily spend a lot of money buying up shares, which also means assuming a lot of risk. This “skin in the game” requirement limits how much influence a single person can exert on a company.

    That safeguard is informal, not mandatory, and dual-class structures do away with it. Ascendant among Silicon Valley firms since Google’s 2004 initial public offering in the U.S. and recently legalized in the U.K., the dual-class model is fiercely debated in corporate governance circles. To date, however, its downsides have been understood only as a problem for shareholders, not society, despite broad and bipartisan concern about the influence of Big Tech.

    Let’s pick on Meta as an example. Zuckerberg reportedly owns just 13.5% of the company’s equity, but because he owns 99.7% of the supervoting shares, he controls 61% of the company’s votes.

    This setup gives him a lock on corporate policy as a controlling shareholder, even though he only owns a bit over one-eighth of Meta stock by value. He has full control of the company without placing anywhere near an equivalent amount of money at risk.

    You don’t have to be the parent of an Instagram-addicted teenager to see that Meta has generated what might be described as social costs. For example, Amnesty International has alleged that Facebook algorithms “substantially contributed to the atrocities perpetrated by the Myanmar military” in 2017. Facebook has also been criticized for promoting misinformation during past U.S. elections and for suppressing embarrassing stories about Hunter Biden.

    These examples underscore broader social concerns around content moderation, privacy and tech titans’ outsized political influence. Notably, Zuckerberg – who has been associated with progressive causes in the past – has moved to embrace President Donald Trump strongly in recent months and asked for Trump’s support for Meta in a legal battle with the European Union.

    When corporate control meets the Supreme Court

    In a 2023 law journal article, I noted that recent Supreme Court decisions expanding corporate constitutional rights stand to give company founders unprecedented power to shape society. While the rise of founder-controlled social media giants with distinct political agendas has gotten a lot of attention, the widening scope of what is deemed protected corporate speech and religious exercise hasn’t been a part of that conversation.

    I think there’s a real possibility that these two streams will converge, granting constitutional protection to “founder kings” who wish to leverage company resources for private agendas. Two recent legal developments raise the stakes.

    First, the courts – and in particular the Supreme Court under Chief Justice John Roberts – have been expanding corporate constitutional rights, which could allow dual-class founders to carve out exceptions to generally applicable laws.

    Second, recent legal changes in Delaware – which despite its tiny size is the leading corporate law jurisdiction in the U.S. – could make it easier for dual-class controlling shareholders to exercise power within their companies.

    To get a sense of the potential consequences, suppose the controlling shareholder of a dual-class company were to cause it to defy a federal mandate – for example, a requirement to offer health insurance plans that cover contraception – on the grounds that complying would violate their religious beliefs. The Supreme Court in Hobby Lobby v. Burwell recognized exactly this sort of faith-based exception for a large family-owned but privately held business.

    Would it recognize such an exception for a company like Snap? The company, best known for its app Snapchat, is publicly traded, but just two men, Robert Murphy and Evan Spiegel, control 99.5% of the voting power.

    We can’t be sure. Hobby Lobby is different from Snap in many ways. Yet what they have in common is the ability of their owners to plausibly claim a unitary speech or religious exercise interest that would not characterize a typical large business. Snap’s public owners have no say at all – zero votes – in the company’s affairs. If the controllers of Snap asserted a religious basis for exempting the company from a regulation – and to be clear, this is a purely hypothetical example – the courts might well indulge the claim.

    The judicial system’s expanding view of corporate constitutional rights – seen not just in Hobby Lobby but in Citizens United v. FEC and a number of more recent and ongoing cases in state and lower federal courts – could empower founders to leverage their businesses for private agendas. Whether or not this is likely for Snap in particular, the combination of the dual-class model and changes in the law would seem to leave the door open.

    Elon Musk vs. the dual-class model

    A fitting contrast might be none other than Twitter – renamed X after Elon Musk acquired it and who recently merged it into xAI, another Musk-led venture.

    As a privately held company, xAI is not required to file public investor reports, and much about its ownership structure remains opaque. But let’s assume the company is majority-owned by Musk in a conventional single-class structure – the type Twitter had before he bought it. Given a chance to provoke, Musk has consistently proved eager to raise his hand. Couldn’t he use his control to get X or xAI – we’ll stick with “X” for simplicity – to exercise the same vast control that Murphy and Spiegel could at Snap, or Zuckerberg at Meta?

    Yes – but with a subtle yet important difference.

    There’s a certain logic to X’s key corporate decisions being vested in Musk. Quite famously, he ponied up US$44 billion to buy the entire company. Legal prohibitions on the deployment of private resources for influence are confined to a small universe of cases – antitrust, bribery, certain types of campaign contributions. Those resources include businesses, which are a form of property, that are owned by wealthy individuals or groups. With limited exceptions, people can use their own property as they wish.

    In a dual-class company, though, controllers use other people’s property as they wish. They can get the immense legal, economic and organizational power of the corporate form without having to put much skin in the game.

    Beyond TikTok: The conversation the US should be having

    Traditionally, questions of rich-guy influence have been seen through the lens of politics, taxes or public regulation. But seeing them as questions about the exercise of private corporate control makes clear the special social challenges posed by dual-class stock.

    Wall Street has mostly accepted the bargain: ironclad insulation of Zuckerberg in exchange for rock-solid Meta returns. But this debate is not only of interest for the investment community. Everyone has a stake in its outcome.

    It’s fair for the public to question the wisdom of allowing company founders to leverage the resources and newly jumbo-sized constitutional rights of large corporations in service of a special agenda – be it for a foreign government, a political party or a religious faith – that isn’t even connected to classical purposes of the corporation or advantages of the dual-class model.

    The distinctive risks posed by TikTok are mostly unrelated to its share structure. But the debate over the ban-or-sell law offers a reminder: The powers created by dual-class stock aren’t unique to Chinese control. America’s homegrown-found kings wield them, too.

    Gregory H. Shill does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The founder kings of Silicon Valley: Dual-class stock gives US social media company controllers nearly as much power as ByteDance has over TikTok – https://theconversation.com/the-founder-kings-of-silicon-valley-dual-class-stock-gives-us-social-media-company-controllers-nearly-as-much-power-as-bytedance-has-over-tiktok-253671

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Cities that want to attract business might want to focus less on financial incentives and more on making people feel safe

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kaitlyn DeGhetto, Associate Professor of Management, University of Dayton

    To attract business investment, American cities and states offer companies billions of dollars in incentives, such as tax credits. As the theory goes, when governments create a business-friendly environment, it encourages investment, leading to job creation and economic growth.

    While this theory may seem logical on its face, it’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation. Business investment follows employees, not just the other way around. In fact, our research suggests workers care less about whether a city has business-friendly policies and more about how safe they feel living in it. And interestingly, we found that politics influence people’s risk perceptions more than hard data such as crime statistics.

    Our findings have major implications for cities and businesses. If people choose where to live and work based on perceived safety rather than economic incentives, then entrepreneurs and city leaders may need to rethink how they approach growth and investment.

    The many faces of risk

    We are management professors who surveyed more than 500 employees and entrepreneurs from across the country to better understand how they rate 25 large U.S. cities on various dimensions of risk.

    We asked about three different types of risk: risk related to crime, government function and social issues. Risk related to government function includes corruption and instability, while risk related to social issues includes potential infringements on individual rights.

    We found that people’s views of risk weren’t driven primarily by objective statistics, such as FBI crime data. Instead, they were shaped by factors such as media representations, word of mouth and geographic stereotypes.

    For example, studies suggest that crime in Denver has been rising, and U.S. News and World Report recently ranked it as the 10th most dangerous city based on FBI crime reports. However, the employees and entrepreneurs we surveyed ranked Denver as the safest city in the country.

    It’s all politics

    We found that political perspectives were the main factor biasing the rankings. For example, conservative-leaning employees and entrepreneurs believed that Portland, Oregon, is dangerous, ranking it as America’s ninth-riskiest city. In contrast, those who are liberal-leaning ranked it as the second-safest city in the country.

    Both of these beliefs can’t be accurate. Instead, when basing the ranking on objective crime data from the FBI, U.S. News ranked Portland the 15th most dangerous city in the country.

    When assessing risk related to how the government functions, conservatives praised politicians in Nashville, Charlotte and Dallas, while the liberals praised those in Denver, Minneapolis and Portland. Similarly, when considering risk related to social issues, conservatives said New York City, Los Angeles and San Francisco were “risky,” while the liberals said Tampa, Miami and Houston should be avoided.

    Our findings also suggest that political perspectives influence the types of risk that employers and employees care about. For example, conservatives tend to care more about crime-related risk than liberals, and liberals care more about risk related to social issues.

    Now what?

    We’re not advocating that city leaders drop financial incentives altogether, or that employers ignore them. Evidence suggests that financial incentives and other business-friendly policies may be effective at attracting businesses and strengthening local economies.

    However, our research suggests that when individuals are making important life decisions about where to live, work and invest, a city’s level of risk matters. Importantly, beliefs about risk are subjective and are biased by political perspectives.

    In our view, city leaders must recognize and address concerns about crime, governance and social issues while actively working to improve public perceptions of their cities. Likewise, businesses may want to consider investing in cities that are less politically polarized when making investment decisions.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Cities that want to attract business might want to focus less on financial incentives and more on making people feel safe – https://theconversation.com/cities-that-want-to-attract-business-might-want-to-focus-less-on-financial-incentives-and-more-on-making-people-feel-safe-250247

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Peru’s ancient irrigation systems turned deserts into farms because of the culture − without it, the systems failed

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ari Caramanica, Assistant Professor of Archaeology, Vanderbilt University

    A pre-Hispanic canal funnels water from mountains to farm fields. Ari Caramanica

    Seeing the north coast of Peru for the first time, you would be hard-pressed to believe it’s one of the driest deserts in the world.

    Parts of the region receive less than an inch of rain in an entire year. Yet, water and greenery are everywhere. This is the nation’s agro-industrial heartland, and, thanks to irrigation canals, almost every inch of the floodplain is blanketed in lucrative export crops, such as sugarcane, asparagus and blueberries.

    However, the apparent success of this system masks an underlying fragility.

    Water shortages have plagued the region for centuries, and now modern climate change combined with agro-industrial practices have further intensified droughts. In response, the Peruvian government has invested billions of dollars in irrigation infrastructure in recent years designed to deliver more water from a resource more than 100 miles away: glaciers in the Andes.

    But the Andean glaciers are disappearing as global temperatures rise. Peru has lost over half its glacier surface area since 1962. At the same time, floods often connected to wet El Niño years are increasing in both frequency and intensity. These floods often destroy or obstruct critical irrigation infrastructure.

    Andean glaciers are disappearing as global temperatures rise. Peru lost over half its glacier surface area in the past half-century.
    mmphoto/DigitalVision via Getty Images

    As an archaeologist investigating societal responses to environmental and climate disaster in Peru, I’m interested in unraveling the histories of complex systems to understand how to improve similar systems today. To understand the Peruvian heartland’s vulnerabilities, it helps to look to the deep past.

    Most of the modern canal network originally dates to pre-Hispanic times, more than 1400 years ago. However, evidence suggests that while the canal systems of the past may have looked similar to those of the present, they functioned in more efficient, flexible ways. The key to adapting to our present and future climate may lie in comprehending the knowledge systems of the past – not just the equipment, technology or infrastructure, but how people used it.

    An environment of extremes

    The north coast of Peru is an environment of extremes.

    In this desert, thousands of years ago, societies encountered many of the same challenges posed by the modern climate crisis: expanding drylands, water scarcity, vulnerable food production systems, and frequent, intense natural disasters.

    Yet, people not only occupied this area for millennia, they thrived in it. Moche and Chimu societies created sophisticated, complex political and religious institutions, art and technology, and one of the largest pyramidal structures in the Americas.

    Relief of fish adorn an adobe wall in the historic Tschudi Complex archaeological site at Chan Chan, the former capital of the Chimu empire in Peru.
    FabulousFabs/Flickr, CC BY-NC

    When the Spanish arrived on the desert north coast of Peru shortly after 1532 C.E., early chroniclers remarked on the verdant, green valleys across the region.

    The Spanish immediately recognized the importance of the canal network. They had used similar canal technology in Spain for centuries. So, they set about conscripting Indigenous labor and adapting the irrigation system to their goals.

    Just a few decades later, however, historic records describe sand dunes and scrublands invading the green valleys, water shortages, and in 1578 a massive El Niño flood that nearly ended the young colony.

    So how did the Indigenous operation of this landscape succeed, where the Spanish and the modern-day agro-industrial complex have repeatedly failed?

    Culture was crucial for ancient canal systems

    Ancient beliefs, behaviors and norms – what archaeologists call culture – were fundamentally integrated into technological solutions in this part of Peru in ancient times. Isolating and removing the tools from that knowledge made them less effective.

    Scientists, policymakers and stakeholders searching for models of sustainable agriculture and climate adaptations can look to the archaeological record. Successfully applying past practices to today’s challenges requires learning about the cultures that put those tools to work effectively for so long, so long ago.

    The pre-Hispanic societies of Peru developed agricultural principles around the realities of the desert, which included both dry seasons and flash floods.

    Large-scale irrigation infrastructure was combined with low-cost, easily modified canals. Aqueducts doubled as sediment traps to capture nutrients. Canal branches channeled both river water and floodwater. Even check-dams – small dams used to control high-energy floods – worked in multiple ways. Usually made of mounded cobble and gravel, they reduced the energy of flash floods, captured rich sediments and recharged the water table.

    A drone’s view of sugarcane fields shows a pre-Hispanic adobe aqueduct on the right and small feeder canals in the modern fields.
    Ari Caramanica

    The initial failures of the Spanish on the north coast exemplify the problem of trying to adopt technology without understanding the cultural insights behind it: While they may be identical in form, a Spanish canal isn’t a Moche canal.

    Spanish canals operated in a temperate climate and were managed by individual farmers who could maintain or increase their water flow. The Moche and Chimu canal was tied to a complex labor system that synchronized cleaning and maintenance and prioritized the efficient use of water. What’s more, Moche canals functioned in tandem with floodwater diversion canals, which activated during El Niño events to create niches of agricultural productivity amid disasters.

    A handmade gate on a modern canal in northern Peru doesn’t seem that different from ancient canals, but the pre-Hispanic canal systems were generally more conceptually complex and interconnected.
    Ari Caramanica

    Desert farming required flexibility and multifunctionality from its infrastructure. Achieving that often meant forgoing impermeable materials and permanent designs, which stands in stark contrast to the way modern-day water management works are constructed.

    Copying ancient practices without the culture

    Today, the Peruvian government is pushing forward with a decades-old, multibillion-dollar project to deliver water to the north coast from a glacier-fed river.

    The Chavimochic project promises a grand transformation, turning desert into productive farmland. But it may be sacrificing long-term resilience for short-term prosperity.

    The project feeds on the temporary abundance of glacial meltwater. This is creating a water boom as the ice melts, but it will inevitably be followed by a devastating water bust as the glaciers all but disappear, which scientists estimate could happen by the end of the 21st century.

    Farmers sell locally grown corn and other crops at a street market in Piura, Peru.
    Christian Ender/Getty Images

    Meanwhile, sustainable land management practices of past Indigenous inhabitants continue to support ecosystems hundreds and even thousands of years later. Studies show higher levels of biodiversity, crucial to ecosystem health, near archaeological sites.

    On the Peruvian north coast, pre-Hispanic infrastructure continues to capture floodwater during El Niño events. When their modern-day fields are flooded or destroyed by these events, farmers will sometimes move their crops to areas surrounding archaeological remains where their corn, squash and bean plants can tap into the trapped water and sediments and safely grow without the need for further irrigation.

    Critics might point out the difficulty of scaling up ancient technologies for global applications, find them rudimentary, or would prefer to appropriate the design without bothering with understanding “the cultural stuff.”

    But this framing misses the bigger point: What made these technologies effective was the cultural stuff. Not just the tools but how they were used by the societies operating them. As long as modern engineering solutions try to update ancient technologies without considering the cultures that made them function, these projects will struggle.

    Understanding the past matters

    Archaeologists have an important role to play in building a climate-resilient future, but any meaningful progress would benefit from a historical approach that considers multiple ways of understanding the environment, of operating an irrigation canal and of organizing an agriculture-based economy.

    That approach, in my view, begins with saving indigenous languages, where cultural logic is deeply embedded, as well as preserving archaeological and sacred sites, and creating partnerships built on trust with the people who have worked with the land and whose cultures have adapted their practices to the changing climate for thousands of years.

    Ari Caramanica receives funding from The National Endowment for the Humanities.

    – ref. Peru’s ancient irrigation systems turned deserts into farms because of the culture − without it, the systems failed – https://theconversation.com/perus-ancient-irrigation-systems-turned-deserts-into-farms-because-of-the-culture-without-it-the-systems-failed-251199

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The ‘courage to be’ in uncertain times − how one 20th-century philosopher defined bravery

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Mordechai Gordon, Professor of Education, Quinnipiac University

    Over the past few weeks, as negotiations for a ceasefire in Ukraine drag on, I’ve thought back to Feb. 28, 2025: the day of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s heated visit to the Oval Office.

    Zelenskyy has called the tone of the meeting “regrettable” as he tries to salvage support for Ukraine. But in some ways, he has stood by his decision to speak up as President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance berated his country, calling it ungrateful for foreign assistance. “In that conversation, I was defending the dignity of Ukraine,” he told Time magazine.

    Watching Zelenskyy left me thinking about political courage. Philosophers have written about bravery for thousands of years, but what is it?

    Plato, for instance, wrote about courage as an important virtue that can assist political leaders. Plato scholar Linda Rabieh argues that courage is the ability to be steadfast in the moment of truth. Angela Hobbs, a British scholar, says that courage might be called “spiritedness”: the ability to act boldly in adverse situations.

    Some of my own recent research in philosophy of education has also focused on courage. In particular, I have been interested in Paul Tillich’s notion of the “courage to be,” as well as its implications for politics and education. Tillich was a German philosopher and theologian who left the country after the Nazis rose to power.

    Tillich Park in New Harmony, Ind., dedicated to the philosopher and theologian.
    christina rutz/Flickr, CC BY-SA

    More than a mindset

    Born in a village in eastern Germany in 1886, Tillich lived in a Europe ravaged by two world wars. As such, he experienced firsthand the fundamental anxiety that many felt during this period of prolonged violence and destruction.

    In the early 1930s, Tillich wrote “The Socialist Decision,” which can be interpreted as a challenge to right-wing populist movements. The Nazis banned the book, and he soon immigrated to the United States, where he would spend the rest of his life and write his most important philosophical and theological works.

    Tillich’s book “The Courage to Be,” published in 1952, is based on a series of lectures that he delivered at Yale University. Tillich was inspired to address courage, since he viewed this concept as one that integrates theological, sociological and philosophical problems. Moreover, Tillich suggests that this concept was useful for understanding societies’ challenges after World War II.

    Tillich moved to the U.S. in the 1930s, after the Nazis’ rise to power.
    Fritz Eschen/ullstein bild via Getty Images

    At its core, the book springs from an attempt to respond to anxiety: people’s anxious search for meaning and security, especially as many people lost faith in the religious traditions that once anchored their sense of purpose and reality. There is courage, Tillich writes, in affirming oneself despite that sense of emptiness, and despite the knowledge that our lives are short and uncertain.

    Tillich defines “the courage to be” as “the ethical act in which man affirms his own being in spite of those elements of his existence which conflict with his essential self-affirmation.” In other words, it is not simply an attitude or disposition. The courage to be is a deed – the ability to stay true to oneself.

    When it comes to ethics or politics, Tillich’s idea of courage entails the ability to sacrifice things such as pleasure, happiness and, in the most extreme cases, one’s life for some higher cause. Such acts of courage are praiseworthy because they suggest that the most ethically essential parts – the noble aspects – of our being are prevailing over the less essential.

    In spite of, a part of

    What Tillich calls “courage to be” consists of two indivisible parts or aspects.

    The first is what he refers to as “the courage to be in spite of”: courageously choosing to affirm one’s essential being, one’s core values, despite tough and even daunting forces of resistance.

    Martin Luther King Jr.’s struggle for civil rights during the 1960s provides a good example of this aspect of the courage to be. Documentary evidence indicates that the FBI tried to destroy his reputation with blackmail and wiretaps, not to mention the close to 30 times he was jailed.

    Martin Luther King Jr., kneeling on left, leads marchers singing and praying during a protest against segregated housing policies in Chicago in August 1966.
    AP Photo/File

    The second aspect Tillich describes in his book is “the courage to be as a part,” to partake in something larger than oneself. Tillich writes that “the self is self only because it has a world, a structured universe, to which it belongs.” The courage to be as a part could mean participating in a political movement, a religious community, a worker strike, or any other initiative that involves people coming together for a common purpose.

    For Tillich, these types of courage should not be considered separate qualities but two interrelated aspects of the courage to be.

    At Zelenskyy’s meeting in the Oval Office, I believe we witnessed a leader embodying both senses of the courage to be. As a president, Zelenskyy stood up for the right of his country to defend itself in the face of Russia’s assault. He remained steadfast in spite of efforts by Trump and Vance to pressure him to accept an agreement that would not have provided security guarantees for Ukraine.

    Yet it seemed to me the plainspoken, animated Zelenskyy also displayed Tillich’s notion of the courage to be as a part. He acted not only as an individual, or a politician, but as a Ukrainian trying to defend his country from an invader − a cause that has inspired protests around the globe.

    Mordechai Gordon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The ‘courage to be’ in uncertain times − how one 20th-century philosopher defined bravery – https://theconversation.com/the-courage-to-be-in-uncertain-times-how-one-20th-century-philosopher-defined-bravery-250576

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Social media before bedtime wreaks havoc on our sleep − a sleep researcher explains why screens alone aren’t the main culprit

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brian N. Chin, Assistant Professor of Psychology, Trinity College

    Social media use before bedtime can be stimulating in ways that screen time alone is not. Adam Hester/Tetra Images via Getty Images

    “Avoid screens before bed” is one of the most common pieces of sleep advice. But what if the real problem isn’t screen time − it’s the way we use social media at night?

    Sleep deprivation is one of the most widespread yet overlooked public health issues, especially among young adults and adolescents.

    Despite needing eight to 10 hours of sleep, most adolescents fall short, while nearly two-thirds of young adults regularly get less than the recommended seven to nine hours.

    Poor sleep isn’t just about feeling tired − it’s linked to worsened mental health, emotion regulation, memory, academic performance and even increased risk for chronic illness and early mortality.

    At the same time, social media is nearly universal among young adults, with 84% using at least one platform daily. While research has long focused on screen time as the culprit for poor sleep, growing evidence suggests that how often people check social media − and how emotionally engaged they are − matters even more than how long they spend online.

    As a social psychologist and sleep researcher, I study how social behaviors, including social media habits, affect sleep and well-being. Sleep isn’t just an individual behavior; it’s shaped by our social environments and relationships.

    And one of the most common yet underestimated factors shaping modern sleep? How we engage with social media before bed.

    Emotional investment in social media

    Beyond simply measuring time spent on social media, researchers have started looking at how emotionally connected people feel to their social media use.

    Some studies suggest that the way people emotionally engage with social media may have a greater impact on sleep quality than the total time they spend online.

    In a 2024 study of 830 young adults, my colleagues and I examined how different types of social media engagement predicted sleep problems. We found that frequent social media visits and emotional investment were stronger predictors of poor sleep than total screen time. Additionally, presleep cognitive arousal and social comparison played a key role in linking social media engagement to sleep disruption, suggesting that social media’s effects on sleep extend beyond simple screen exposure.

    I believe these findings suggest that cutting screen time alone may not be enough − reducing how often people check social media and how emotionally connected they feel to it may be more effective in promoting healthier sleep habits.

    How social media disrupts sleep

    If you’ve ever struggled to fall asleep after scrolling through social media, it’s not just the screen keeping you awake. While blue light can delay melatonin production, my team’s research and that of others suggests that the way people interact with social media may play an even bigger role in sleep disruption.

    Here are some of the biggest ways social media interferes with your sleep:

    • Presleep arousal: Doomscrolling and emotionally charged content on social media keeps your brain in a state of heightened alertness, making it harder to relax and fall asleep. Whether it’s political debates, distressing news or even exciting personal updates, emotionally stimulating content can trigger increased cognitive and physiological arousal that delays sleep onset.

    • Social comparison: Viewing idealized social media posts before bed can lead to upward social comparison, increasing stress and making it harder to sleep. People tend to compare themselves to highly curated versions of others’ lives − vacations, fitness progress, career milestones − which can lead to feelings of inadequacy and anxiety that disrupt sleep.

    • Habitual checking: Social media use after lights out is a strong predictor of poor sleep, as checking notifications and scrolling before bed can quickly become an automatic habit. Studies have shown that nighttime-specific social media use, especially after lights are out, is linked to shorter sleep duration, later bedtimes and lower sleep quality. This pattern reflects bedtime procrastination, where people delay sleep despite knowing it would be better for their health and well-being.

    • Fear of missing out, or FOMO: The urge to stay connected also keeps many people scrolling long past their intended bedtime, making sleep feel secondary to staying updated. Research shows that higher FOMO levels are linked to more frequent nighttime social media use and poorer sleep quality. The anticipation of new messages, posts or updates can create a sense of social pressure to stay online and reinforce the habit of delaying sleep.

    Taken together, these factors make social media more than just a passive distraction − it becomes an active barrier to restful sleep. In other words, that late-night scroll isn’t harmless − it’s quietly rewiring your sleep and well-being.

    How to use social media without sleep disruption

    You don’t need to quit social media, but restructuring how you engage with it at night could help. Research suggests that small behavioral changes to your bedtime routine can make a significant difference in sleep quality. I suggest trying these practical, evidence-backed strategies for improving your sleep:

    • Give your brain time to wind down: Avoid emotionally charged content 30 to 60 minutes before bed to help your mind relax and prepare for sleep.

    • Create separation between social media and sleep: Set your phone to “Do Not Disturb” or leave it outside the bedroom to avoid the temptation of late-night checking.

    • Reduce mindless scrolling: If you catch yourself endlessly refreshing, take a small, mindful pause and ask yourself: “Do I actually want to be on this app right now?”

    A brief moment of awareness can help break the habit loop.

    Brian N. Chin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Social media before bedtime wreaks havoc on our sleep − a sleep researcher explains why screens alone aren’t the main culprit – https://theconversation.com/social-media-before-bedtime-wreaks-havoc-on-our-sleep-a-sleep-researcher-explains-why-screens-alone-arent-the-main-culprit-251453

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How racism fueled the Eaton Fire’s destruction in Altadena − a scholar explains why discrimination can raise fire risk for Black Californians

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Calvin Schermerhorn, Professor of History, Arizona State University

    Altadena is inherently prone to fire. But Black residents are the most vulnerable. Mario Tama/Getty Images

    The damage from the Eaton Fire wasn’t indiscriminate. The blaze that ravaged the city of Altadena, California, in January 2025, killing 17 people and consuming over 9,000 buildings, destroyed Black Altadenans’ homes in greatest proportion.

    About 48% of Black-owned homes sustained major damage or total destruction, compared with 37% of those owned by Asian, Latino or white Altadenans, according to a February 2025 report from the UCLA Ralph J. Bunche Center for African American Studies.

    The Eaton Fire’s uneven devastation reveals a pattern of racial discrimination previously concealed along neat blocks of mid-century, ranch-style homes and tree-lined streets.

    ‘A place for white people only’

    In the early 20th century, Altadena was a professional enclave connected to Los Angeles, 13 miles away, by the Pacific Electric Railway, or “Red Car” system.

    It was also lily-white, and that’s how homeowner groups liked it, according to research by Altadena historian Michele Zack.

    These organizations, which had lofty names such as the Great Northwest Improvement Association and West Altadena Improvement Association, urged homeowners to write language into their deeds that would bar Black, Latino or Asian tenants from buying or renting there.

    “We want our section of Pasadena and Altadena to be a place for white people only,” read one homeowners association notice sent to property owners in 1919.

    A ladies golf lesson in Altadena, Calif., 1958.
    Maryland Studio/PGA of America via Getty Images

    By the end of World War II, most properties in Altadena had racially restrictive deeds or covenants – a trend being repeated in white suburbs across the country.

    In 1948, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down such restrictions in Shelley v. Kraemer as unenforceable. Still, the 1950 census shows that Altadena had no Black residents.

    Building the new LA

    But the Los Angeles area was changing. The West Coast economy boomed after the war, and Black Americans from Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas began heading to California. Many landed in Pasadena, directly south of Altadena.

    Claiming that Americans preferred buses and automobiles to trains, a consortium of automobile, oil and tire companies persuaded Los Angeles officials to rip out the electric railway and replace it with roads.

    Los Angeles’ “Red Car” system, which had connected the region, closed for good in 1961. Altadena had already lost its rail connection to Los Angeles long before, in 1941.

    By mid-century, broader Los Angeles had become a series of homeowner-controlled enclaves connected by freeways and choked with smog.

    The construction in 1958 of Interstate 210, which connected the San Fernando Valley to the San Gabriel Valley, ran a four-lane highway through mostly Black and Latino neighborhoods of Pasadena. Following a national pattern of displacing poor minority communities in the name of urban renewal, it was part of a redevelopment spree that ultimately pushed 4,000 Black and Latino residents out of the city.

    Some relocated within Pasadena or moved to Duarte, Monrovia, Pomona or South Los Angeles. But a handful of families bought homes in Altadena, defying the illegal racial covenants still in place there.

    One new Black resident, Joseph Henry Davis, bought a home west of Lake Avenue, the main north-south artery dividing the city, in what was, as one local newspaper put it in 1964, an “all-white Altadena neighborhood.”

    When Davis moved in, the story reports, his new neighbors put up “a 40-inch white plaster cross that (read) ‘you are not welcome here.‘” The Davis family “paid it no attention.”

    Altadena embodied a paradox seen nationwide. The city integrated, but block-by-block segregation kept white and Black residents apart.

    Discrimination in new forms

    By 1970, roughly one-third of Altadena’s population was Black, and 70% of Black households in Altadena owned their homes – nearly double Los Angeles County’s Black home ownership rate of 38%.

    Black residents almost exclusively lived in West Altadena. Lots there were smaller than those on the east side of town, so they were more affordable. They were also older, which made them more vulnerable to fires because they were built with materials that were more flammable than those used in newer homes.

    As my book “The Plunder of Black America: How the Racial Wealth Gap Was Made” shows, once Black families surmounted one obstacle, such as racial covenants, another rose in its place.

    In the 1960s and 1970s, many white Altadenans resisted school integration, opposing boundary changes and busing that would have put Black and Latino students in predominantly white Altadena schools. California passed Proposition 13 in 1978, freezing property taxes at 1% of their assessed value. Public schools lost significant funding, private schools gained affluent students, and educational segregation deepened.

    Educational discrimination feeds wealth inequality, which was severe nationwide: In 1980, for every dollar a white household owned, a Black one owned 20 cents.

    Rising home values, paradoxically, had a similarly malignant effect. In the 1980s, the Los Angeles area became one of the most expensive housing markets in the nation. Many Black Altadenans could no longer afford to live there. The share of the city’s population that was Black fell from 43% in 1980 to 38% in 1990. By the 2000s it had dropped to below 25%.

    Great Recession takes its toll

    Black homeowners who remained in Altadena were hit hard by the 2008 housing crisis. That crisis was caused in part by lenders steering borrowers, particularly borrowers of color, into subprime loans, even when they qualified for better deals.

    Between 2007 and 2009, Black households lost 48% of their wealth – nearly half their assets. White wealth dropped during the Great Recession, too, but only by about one-quarter.

    Research into this racial discrepancy later showed that because white families had more of a financial cushion, they could stem their losses.

    These and other factors have all dragged down the wealth of Black Californians over the years. In 2023, California’s task force on reparations calculated that the state’s discriminatory practices cost the average African American in California $160,931 in homeownership wealth compared with a white Californian.

    Racism fuels the fire

    Those inequities were a tinderbox that the Eaton Fire ignited.

    Altadena is inherently prone to fire because it borders the Angeles National Forest, gets Santa Ana winds that spread embers, and has highly flammable vegetation. But because Black Altadenans’ homes sit on smaller lots, with structures and landscaping located closer together, the ember fire spread more easily in Black neighborhoods.

    Altadena, Calif., March 26, 2025: A scene of ruin.
    Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Black Altadenans also tend to be older than their white neighbors, because most had bought into the area before the real estate boom of the 1980s. The physical and financial strains typical of an aging household may have caused hardships for removing vegetation – a best practice in protecting a structure from an ember fire.

    All these factors likely contributed to the Eaton Fire disproportionately burning Black-owned homes. All are connected to the city’s legacy of discrimination and exclusion. And they will all make fire recovery harder for Black Altadenans, too.

    Calvin Schermerhorn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How racism fueled the Eaton Fire’s destruction in Altadena − a scholar explains why discrimination can raise fire risk for Black Californians – https://theconversation.com/how-racism-fueled-the-eaton-fires-destruction-in-altadena-a-scholar-explains-why-discrimination-can-raise-fire-risk-for-black-californians-250582

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Reality check: coral restoration won’t save the world’s reefs

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Matthew Flinders Professor of Global Ecology and Node Leader in the ARC Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, Flinders University

    A coral ‘rope’ nursery in the Maldives Luca Saponari/University of Milan, CC BY-ND

    Coral reefs are much more than just a pretty place to visit. They are among the world’s richest ecosystems, hosting about a third of all marine species.

    These reefs also directly benefit more than a billion people, providing livelihoods and food security, as well as protection from storms and coastal erosion.

    Without coral reefs, the world would be a much poorer place. So when corals die or become damaged, many people try to restore them. But the enormity of the task is growing as the climate keeps warming.

    In our new research, we examined the full extent of existing coral restoration projects worldwide. We looked at what drives their success or failure, and how much it would actually cost to restore what’s already been lost. Restoring the reefs we’ve already lost around the world could cost up to A$26 trillion.

    Bleached Acropora corals in the Maldives.
    Davide Seveso/University of Milan

    Global losses

    Sadly, coral reefs are suffering all over the world. Global warming and marine heatwaves are the main culprits. But overfishing and pollution make matters worse.

    When sea temperatures climb above the seasonal average for sustained periods, corals can become bleached. They lose colour as they expel their symbiotic algae when stressed, revealing the white skeleton underneath. Severe bleaching can kill coral.

    Coral bleaching and mass coral deaths are now commonplace. Last month, a massive warm-water plume bleached large areas of Ningaloo Reef on Australia’s northwest coast just as large sections of the northern Great Barrier Reef were bleaching on the northeast coast.

    Since early 2023, mass coral bleaching has occurred in throughout the tropics and parts of the Indian Ocean.

    Over the past 40 years, the extent of coral reefs has halved. As climate change continues, bleaching events and coral deaths will become more common. More than 90% of coral reefs are at risk of long-term degradation by the end of the century.

    Dead corals in the Maldives following a bleaching event.
    Simone Montano/University of Milan

    Direct intervention

    Coral reef restoration can take many forms, including removing coral-eating species such as parrot fish, transferring coral spawn, or even manipulating the local community of microbes to improve coral survival.

    But by far the most common type of restoration is “coral gardening”, where coral fragments grown in nurseries are transplanted back to the reef.

    The problem is scale. Coral restoration can only be done successfully at a small scale. Most projects only operate over several hundred or a few thousand square metres. Compare that with nearly 12,000 square km of loss and degradation between 2009 and 2018. Restoration projects come nowhere near the scale needed to offset losses from climate change and other threats.

    Conservationists work to garden coral and help preserve these unique life forms.

    Sky-high costs

    Coral restoration is expensive, ranging from around $10,000 to $226 million per hectare. The wide range reflects the variable costs of different techniques used, ease of access, and cost of labour. For example, coral gardening (coral fragments grown in nurseries transplanted back to the reef) is relatively cheap (median cost $558,000 per hectare) compared with seeding coral larvae (median $830,000 per hectare). Building artificial reefs can cost up to $226 million per hectare.

    We estimated it would cost more than $1.6 billion to restore just 10% of degraded coral areas globally. This is using the lowest cost per hectare and assuming all restoration projects are successful.

    Even our conservative estimate is four times more than the total investment in coral restoration over the past decade ($410 million).

    But it’s reasonable to use the highest cost per hectare, given high failure rates, the need to use several techniques at the same site, and the great expense of working on remote reefs. Restoring 10% of degraded coral areas globally, at $226 million a hectare, would cost more than $26 trillion – almost ten times Australia’s annual GDP.

    It is therefore financially impossible to tackle the ongoing loss of coral reefs with restoration, even if local projects can still provide some benefits.

    Rope nurseries nurture coral fragments until they’re ready to be planted out.
    Luca Saponari/University of Milan

    Location, location, location

    Our research also looked at what drives the choice of restoration sites. We found it depends mostly on how close a reef is to human settlements.

    By itself, this isn’t necessarily a bad thing. But we also found restoration actions were more likely to occur in reefs already degraded by human activity and with fewer coral species.

    This means we’re not necessarily targeting sites where restoration is most likely to succeed, or of greatest ecological importance.

    Another limitation is coral gardening normally involves only a few coral species – the easiest to rear and transplant. While this can still increase coral cover, it does not restore coral diversity to the extent necessary for healthy, resilient ecosystems.

    Measuring ‘success’

    Another sad reality is that more than a third of all coral restoration efforts fail. The reasons why can include poor planning, unproven technologies, insufficient monitoring, and subsequent heatwaves.

    Unfortunately, there’s no standard way to collect data or report on restoration projects. This makes it difficult – or impossible – to identify conditions leading to success, and reduces the pace of improvement.

    Succeed now, fail later

    Most coral transplants are monitored for less than 18 months. Even if they survive that period, there’s no guarantee they will last longer. The long-term success rate is unknown.

    When we examined the likelihood of extreme heat events immediately following restoration and in coming decades, we found most restored sites had already experienced severe bleaching shortly after restoration. It will be difficult to find locations that will be spared from future global warming.

    Sometimes the young coral is bleached before the restoration project is complete.
    Davide Seveso/University of Milan

    No substitute for climate action

    Coral restoration has the potential to be a valuable tool in certain circumstances: when it promotes community engagement and addresses local needs. But it is not yet – and might never be – feasible to scale up sufficiently to have meaningful long-term positive effects on coral reef ecosystems.

    This reality check should stimulate constructive debate about when and where restoration is worthwhile. Without stemming the pace and magnitude of climate change, we have little power to save coral reefs from massive losses over the coming century and beyond.

    Other conservation approaches such as establishing, maintaining and enforcing marine protected areas, and improving water quality, could improve the chance a coral restoration project will work. These efforts could also support local human communities with incentives for conservation.

    Reinforcing complementary strategies could therefore bolster ecosystem resilience, extending the reach and success of coral restoration projects.



    Read more:
    Coral restoration is a speculative, feel-good science that won’t save our reefs

    Corey J. A. Bradshaw receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Clelia Mulà receives funding from the Australian Institute of Marine Science.

    Giovanni Strona does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Reality check: coral restoration won’t save the world’s reefs – https://theconversation.com/reality-check-coral-restoration-wont-save-the-worlds-reefs-251055

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Election Diary: The election’s first debate was disaster-free but passion-free too

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The election’s first debate, on Sky News on Tuesday night, was disappointingly dull. Viewers who’d been following the campaign would have learned little. There was minimal spontaneity.

    Among the 100 undecided voters in the room, 44 said Anthony Albanese won, 35 thought Peter Dutton came out ahead and 21 were undecided.

    Both camps will be satisfied, because each leader’s main aim was to avoid disaster. A bad mistake, an undisciplined moment, can sour the following day.

    The Liberals will be especially relieved. After difficult days for Dutton, with Trump wading into the campaign and the fiasco over the work-from-home policy, the opposition leader needed to perform creditably. He did that, with commentators scoring the result variously (in some cases in line with the scorer’s political leaning).

    Dutton was under added pressure – just before the two men faced off he learned his father Bruce had been taken to hospital.

    Both leaders were well prepared, and carefully polite. Questions canvassed the “Trump pandemic”, education, health, cost of living, immigration, Albanese’s tax cuts, Dutton’s fuel excise promise, and Gaza.

    When moderator Kieran Gilbert asked audience members to raise their hands if they were “doing it pretty tough” about half did so.

    Albanese seemed to have more material to work with, and made sure he homed in on Dutton’s nuclear policy and his time as health minister.

    Naturally, we saw Albanese’s well-worn Medicare card again.

    The PM dodged an awkward reference to NSW premier Chris Minns’ returning public servants to the office, pivoting to Dutton’s dumping his working from home policy. “Peter hasn’t been able to stand up for his own policy, so I don’t know how he can stand up for Australia.”

    Albanese had a good zinger countering Dutton’s spiel on gas: “The only gas policy that the Coalition have is the gaslighting of the Australia public.”

    Dutton had a cut-through point on the PM’s promise to subsidise solar batteries. “He’s asking you to provide a subsidy or to support a subsidy for people on higher incomes like me to buy a battery at a subsidised price and I don’t believe that’s fair.”

    Rather bizarrely, the Coalition used the cover of the debate to release its delayed modelling for its gas reservation policy, sending it out just as the debate started, embargoed until its finish.

    “Modelling conducted by Frontier Economics has concluded that the Coalition’s National Gas Plan will see a 23% reduction in wholesale gas prices,” the statement said. This would “progressively mean

    • 15% reduction in retail gas bills for industrial customers
    • 7% reduction in retail gas bills for residential customers
    • 8% reduction in wholesale electricity prices
    • 3% reduction in residential electricity prices.”

    And do the debates matter anyway?

    Australian election debates are punctuation points in the campaign. They don’t necessarily carry much weight, although they can affect a candidate’s immediate momentum.

    Ian McAllister, director of the ANU’s Australian Election Study, says fewer and fewer people are watching these debates. In 1993, about seven in ten voters watched; in 2022 only a third did.

    McAllister also says our debates are low grade compared to some overseas. For example, in France, the two candidates sit across from each other, with two moderators and “go for it”. In Australia, debates are “stylised” and the candidates rely heavily on prepared answers.

    Winning or losing the debates is not necessarily a guide to the election result. As the table shows John Howard performed better in elections than in debates.

    NSW Premier Minns defends a back-to-the-office policy

    Peter Dutton took a serious fall over his now-abandoned plan to force Canberra public servants back to the office. But Chris Minns already has many state bureaucrats back at their desks, and on Tuesday declared firmly he won’t be for turning.

    The Minns policy, announced last year, admittedly has had a bumpy start, including problems with the unions. But Minns’ “sell” is very different from the Coalition’s unsuccessful attempt.

    The federal opposition, which often seems obsessed with Canberra public servants, left the impression these bureaucrats working from home were ripping off the system and needed to be brought into line.

    Contrast the positive spin from Minns on Tuesday. After noting most NSW public servants can’t work from home – they’re on the front line – for the rest: “We believe it’s the only way of mentoring the next generation of people, to come through offices and ensure that they’ve got good modelled behaviour, a sense of shared mission and an idea of where they’re going collectively together.

    “In order for us to fulfil the mission of government and public service, it means that you’ve got to build a team culture. And that can really only be done in the workplace.

    “I think our policy is different to Peter Dutton’s, but I just don’t want to mince words. We’ve got to be clear and consistent and we’re not changing our policy.

    “I don’t want any ambiguity about our position. We made that call last year. It was the right decision. And in terms of the mentoring role that a senior person plays in a workplace, whether they’re a manager or not, if they’ve got years under their belt and they’ve got experience, it’s amazing the positive impact they will have on a junior recruit that we’ve just got into the public service and that doesn’t happen on zoom and it doesn’t happen on YouTube and it doesn’t happen over the phone.”

    Minns has consistently proved himself a strong communicator. He often ran rings around Anthony Albanese in responding to the antisemitism crisis.

    Jim Chalmers does the rounds on the tariff crisis

    Treasurer Jim Chalmers is making the most of incumbency in the wake of the Trump tariff upheaval, undertaking an intense round of official activity.

    Chalmers will convene a meeting on Wednesday of the Council of Financial Regulators to discuss the impact globally and locally. Those attending will include the heads of the Reserve Bank, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, Treasury and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.

    He will also meet the heads of the Future Fund and the ASX. On Thursday, he will have talks with major employers.

    Chalmers has already convened and attended a Treasury briefing for the prime minister. He has talked with Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock, and been in touch with the CEOs of the major banks and superannuation funds representatives.

    Chalmers is due to debate shadow treasurer Angus Taylor on Wednesday evening.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Election Diary: The election’s first debate was disaster-free but passion-free too – https://theconversation.com/election-diary-the-elections-first-debate-was-disaster-free-but-passion-free-too-183208

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: No major gaffes and no knockout punch: the first leaders’ debate was a pedestrian affair

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andy Marks, Vice-President, Public Affairs and Partnerships, Western Sydney University

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton have faced off in the first leaders’ debate of the 2025 federal election. The debate, hosted by Sky News and The Daily Telegraph, was held at the Wenty Leagues Club in Sydney’s western suburbs, where an audience of 100 undecided voters asked questions of both leaders.

    All the expected topics were canvassed, including the cost of living, the economy, housing, health and education, immigration, the war in Gaza, and of course US President Donald Trump. So how did the two leaders shape up? Three expert authors give their analysis.

    Andy Marks, Western Sydney University

    A funny thing happened on the way to the “people’s forum”. It reverted to a festival of rhetoric. The first federal election leaders’ debate between Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton began personably.

    The Sky News debate saw Anthony and Peter – yes, first names only – take questions from the floor. It could have been the local sports team’s AGM. It wasn’t.

    “Who’s doing it tough?” Sky News host Kieren Gilbert asked the audience. A sprinkle of hands, some reluctant, some defiant, rose.

    “That was a very confronting scene,” Dutton remarked. “To see that many hands go up”, he added, reflected what he had seen throughout the government’s term: “people in tears” because they couldn’t cope with rising costs.

    Albanese took a different approach. “Wages are up. Unemployment is low,” he said. The election, he argued, is about “what happens next”. The road ahead, he commented, was uncertain. “The world has thrown a lot of challenges at us. We’ve responded the Australian way.”

    The focus was on ideal versus experience. “All you need is your Medicare card, not your credit card,” Albanese assured a questioner of his commitment to lift bulk-billed healthcare.

    Dutton turned that proposition around, asking the questioner, “What’s your experience? Do you use your Medicare card, or your credit card too?” It was his most effective moment.

    Albanese went full-Rudd zinger on energy. “The only gas policy the Coalition has is the gaslighting of the Australian public.”

    When Albanese and Dutton were unleashed on each other, the debate descended into the usual contest over conflicting accounts of surplus records.

    When it mattered, however – when audience members had the floor – it was a forum on what voters were experiencing, and which leader proved the better listener. That won’t be answered until polling day.

    Andrea Carson, La Trobe University

    Dutton faced a tough start to the first televised leaders’ debate of the 2025 federal election campaign, with reports his father had been rushed to hospital shortly before the cameras rolled.

    But if he was rattled, he didn’t show it. Dutton wasted no time speaking to what he saw as Labor’s weaknesses, beginning with cost of living: power bills up, businesses going bust, grocery prices climbing.

    Meanwhile, Albanese began with a few stammers, but quickly dispelled memories of his 2022 gaffes by confidently rattling off numbers that told a story of economic recovery amid the COVID-induced cost-of-living crisis.

    With the primary vote share at record lows for both major parties, and with more Australians voting for minor parties and independent candidates, this is a crucial time to capture Australian’s attention before early voting opens next Tuesday.

    Whether this debate reaches enough voters behind the News Corp paywall is questionable, but the debate’s soundbites will likely have a longer life than the 60-minute broadcast.

    Using the tricks of the trade, Albanese repeated questioner’s names and thanked them for their service as school teachers and truckies, for caring for children, and for keeping Australia moving. He came ready with a well-worn prop – waving his green and gold Medicare card to spruik his plans to increase bulk billing for GP visits.

    But Dutton wasn’t having a bar of it, stating he had seen the stunt before and that “the Mediscare campaign” continues. Albanese retorted by pointing to Dutton’s track record as health minister, claiming bulk billing was then in freefall. Women in the audience nodded in agreement. It was a little win for Albanese.

    Predictably, both leaders kept to their areas of perceived strength: healthcare and education for Labor; the economy and keeping a lid on immigration for the Coalition. Both skirted the tricky question on the Gaza war – and avoided direct criticism of Trump.

    The debate covered plenty of ground – solar power, fuel excise, cuts to universities’ foreign student numbers – but featured little mention of regional Australia or global security.

    Albanese finished his pitch on a message of “staying the course”. Dutton returned to where he started: the economy, promising the Coalition could do it better, weaving in the threat of a Labor/Greens coalition government.

    There were no fatal blows. Just like the polls, it was too close to call an outright winner. But not to worry. There will be another debate next week, this time on the ABC.

    Emma Shortis, RMIT University

    As someone who spends far too much time focused on US politics, it was a little bit refreshing to watch a debate that was a little bit … boring. Two blokes in suits, badly lit, talking about actual policy. In quite a bit of detail!

    We often worry, with good reason, that Australian politics is being Americanised. Tonight showed that isn’t necessarily the case – in fact, the Trump administration’s dismantling of US democracy didn’t feature much this evening.

    And there certainly weren’t many of the outrageous features of US politics – there was some bluster, of course, and some pretty concerning rhetoric around “immigration” – but this wasn’t anything like the corrosive, paranoid politics of America today.

    Albanese opened the debate by noting that “the world has thrown a lot of challenges at Australia”, without mentioning the United States. That’s despite the fact the second Trump administration has effectively set the agenda of Australian politics for the past week at least.

    But the very first question was about the “Trump pandemic”. Albanese was right to say in his response that Trump’s tariffs are an act of “economic self-harm” by the US. It does seem a stretch to suggest Australia got “a better deal” on tariffs because of representations made by the Australian government. Given what we know about the second Trump administration and its treatment of traditional allies, that seems unlikely.

    Dutton once again made the argument that he would be better placed to negotiate with Trump because of his experience with Trump mark 1. But again, given how the Trump administration is treating America’s traditional allies, that’s not particularly convincing.

    Surprisingly, the AUKUS submarine pact only got a mention right at the end. Albanese affirmed Labor’s support for the deal and said the government wouldn’t link the tariff issue to defence. That might be politically desirable, but it will be increasingly difficult as Trump continues to put pressure on the alliance. If Trump places no value in Australia’s free trade agreement with the US, what reason is there to believe he places any value in any other agreements?

    As more and more attention is focused on what “security” actually means, those arbitrary dividing lines to which Australian politics has been so accustomed – such as the one between our defence and trade relationship with the US – might be becoming a little bit blurrier.

    Emma Shortis is also Director of the Australia Institute’s International & Security Affairs Program.

    Andrea Carson and Andy Marks do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. No major gaffes and no knockout punch: the first leaders’ debate was a pedestrian affair – https://theconversation.com/no-major-gaffes-and-no-knockout-punch-the-first-leaders-debate-was-a-pedestrian-affair-253711

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s tariff hikes and South Africa: hunt for new agricultural markets must begin now

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Wandile Sihlobo, Senior Fellow, Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University

    The South African government has underscored the urgent need to diversify the country’s agricultural exports in the wake of the US decision to increase tariffs on its trading partners.

    The progress of South Africa’s agricultural sector has relied partly on exports, which now account for roughly half of the production in value terms. South Africa’s agricultural exports reached a new record of US$13.7 billion in 2024, up 3% from the previous year, according to data from Trade Map. South Africa also imports various agricultural products. In 2024, South Africa’s agricultural imports amounted to US$7.6 billion.

    The US accounts for 4% of South Africa’s agricultural exports. The biggest agricultural exports to the US are citrus, wine, grapes and nuts. These typically entered the US market duty free, and now fall under the tariff level of between 10% and 31% which Washington has levied on South Africa.

    The ministers of International Relations and Cooperation and of Trade, Industry and Competition said in a statement after Washington’s move:

    Efforts will intensify to diversify export destinations, targeting markets across Africa, as well as in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the Americas. Moreover, where deemed appropriate, such efforts will also involve bilateral arrangements that allow for the pursuance of our national interest.

    As a medium to longer term strategy this makes sense in the context of the trade friction with the US and the overall growth of South Africa’s agricultural sector. But export diversification will take time to achieve. New markets take time to open up because negotiations with countries, especially in agricultural products, are complex. For example, it took 16 years for South Africa to reopen Thailand for apple exports.

    Moreover, trade agreements typically take a minimum of five years to conclude.

    This means that, in the short term, the South African government will urgently be seeking to engage with Washington to maintain critical access to the US market. In their joint statement, the two departments managing the fallout said they would be seeking “additional exemptions and favourable quota agreements”.

    So what does the long-term strategy look like? And what are the building blocks that need to be put in place to secure diversified destinations for South Africa’s agricultural products in the future?

    As an agricultural economist who has looked at these issues for some time, I would recommend these three areas of focus.

    Firstly, South Africa trade authorities should put resources into understanding the opportunities in dynamic markets in the Gulf and Asia. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar are some of the key markets in the Gulf. In Asia, China, India and Vietnam should remain priorities.

    Secondly, the agricultural sector and government need to develop better ways of working together. This will help ensure business relationships are cultivated in the countries that the government is engaging, and that there’s alignment between the commercial and political interests of the country.

    Thirdly, South Africa’s agricultural sector – government and organised agriculture – must get its house in order. For example, promoting livestock products won’t work unless the necessary disease controls are in place.

    Opportunities

    The African continent accounts for the biggest share of South African exports at 38%. The EU accounted for a 19% share in 2023. Asia and the Middle East accounted for a quarter of South Africa’s agricultural exports in the same year.

    Asia and the Far East, in particular China, have already been identified as key growth areas. Even though Asia and the Middle East are strong destination points, huge pockets of opportunity remain in terms of products and countries.

    The Brics grouping remains crucial in this endeavour. Here, the South African government must have a sharper focus on lowering import tariffs and phytosanitary barriers in countries such as China, India and Saudi Arabia.

    China is the biggest opportunity, largely because of its population and economic size. China, the world’s second largest economy after the US, must feed 1.4 billion people. To do this, China is a huge importer, resulting in an agricultural trade deficit with the rest of the world of about US$117 billion. This suggests there’s a gap for countries with good agricultural offerings.

    Vietnam and India also have sizeable populations. Importantly, South Africa remains a small participant in their agricultural markets.

    The sectors worth targeting include horticulture and wine producers. Expanding exports in these sectors has been a long-running talking point. Now there’s a need for renewed energy and urgency from the government officials’ side.

    The livestock industry is also geared to promote its exports.

    In the short term

    Agricultural stakeholders can play a constructive role in supporting the government’s efforts to engage the US. Stakeholders can assess the impact of the increased US tariff on their exports, mainly citrus, grapes, wine, and nuts, among other products, as well as the impact on jobs in their regions.

    There is also scope to provide more flexibility for American products in the South African market to ease current trade tensions. For example, South Africa currently allows US exporters to sell over 70,000 tonnes of poultry products into the country without any tariff. However, US poultry producers have only used less than 60% of this quota. One reason for this is the low-quality products that have not met the South African specifications. Hence the need to seek negotiating points.

    Next steps

    Trade is about trade-offs and backing the correct winners.

    Both organised agriculture – commodity associations – and business must work together to define new priorities for the country and how these can be pursued internationally.

    Negotiating free trade agreements should be the mainstay of trade policy. South Africa has excelled in opening up new markets in the past 20 years, by concluding several free trade agreements with critical regional and international markets. These include deals with the Southern African Development Community countries as well as the region’s agreement with the European Union and the African Continental Free Trade Area.

    It needs to expand this list.

    But free trade agreements require hard choices over which industries a country is prepared to place on the table for possible trade-offs while building long-term competitiveness in sectors that can be major drivers for growth.

    Government must engage the various agricultural sectors about their key priorities and what trade-offs they’re prepared to consider.

    Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and a member of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC).

    – ref. Trump’s tariff hikes and South Africa: hunt for new agricultural markets must begin now – https://theconversation.com/trumps-tariff-hikes-and-south-africa-hunt-for-new-agricultural-markets-must-begin-now-253984

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Rwanda’s image abroad: how western countries are beginning to turn their backs

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By David E Kiwuwa, Associate Professor of International Studies, University of Nottingham

    Rwanda enjoyed good relations with the western world for many years. This was due to systematic and intentional efforts to build its profile as a constructive regional actor, especially through the UN peacekeeping framework.

    It also set out to improve its national brand through sports sponsorships of some of the biggest football clubs in the world. These include Arsenal (England), PSG (France) and Bayern Munich (Germany).

    Since the end of the 1994 genocide, countries such as the UK, the US and France were willing to give Rwanda a less than critical pass when it was accused of destabilising its bigger neighbour, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). They averted their gaze from its domestic heavy handedness, particularly its constraining of democratic space and human rights.

    But there has been a sharp turn in sentiment. For the first time, the western powers, as well as China, have begun to call out Rwanda on its behaviour.



    Read more:
    Rwanda and Belgium are at odds over the DRC: what’s led to the latest low point

    Western actors have grown exasperated with Rwanda’s impunity and have been forced to change tack. Quiet shuttle diplomacy, notably by the Biden administration and the EU, has failed to achieve Rwandan restraint. And as a humanitarian crisis grew, they saw more forceful and overt actions as necessary.

    Concerned about the rising level of violence and humanitarian catastrophe in the DRC, western powers through the UN general assembly and security council called for restraint, dialogue and de-escalation. France, Belgium, Germany, the US, Canada and the EU also condemned the escalating violence and Rwanda’s role. The growing consensus culminated in firmer and direct sanctions against individual Rwandan actors and entities and suspension of economic and trade cooperation.

    I have been a long time scholar of and commentator on African regime types, political governance and conflict, with a focus on Rwanda. It’s my view that Rwanda’s escapades in eastern DRC have had a detrimental impact on the goodwill long extended to the Kigali regime. What happens next will depend on its response.

    Rwanda’s role in the DRC

    There is little doubt about Rwanda’s involvement in conflict and instability in the eastern DRC. The reports from the security council and UN bodies have provided sufficient evidence of this.

    Since 2012, Rwanda has been accused of being the patron behind the Movement of March 23 (M23) rebel group. The M23 and its associated alliances have been fighting the DRC government, purportedly to protect the rights of Congolese Tutsis.

    For its part, Rwanda has pointed to the danger posed by remnants of security forces involved in the 1994 genocide. The forces fled into the DRC and are still hell bent on causing instability in Rwanda, Kigali claims. The other grievance is that the forces are backed by the DRC regime and have been responsible for persecuting Congolese Tutsis.

    Between 2012 and 2018, the M23 group had a limited level of military success. In 2012 it captured the eastern DRC city of Goma but was forced to relinquish it after just 10 days.

    In the latest escalation of fighting the group has made significant gains, recapturing Goma and capturing the bigger Bukavu and other areas.

    M23’s success has been attributed to the sustained and systematic support Rwanda has given the group, according to the UN report and security council resolution 2773.

    Support has included sophisticated weaponry and boots on the ground, conservatively estimated at over 4,000 soldiers. Faced with demotivated, ill-trained and poorly coordinated DRC military capabilities, the M23 success was almost inevitable.



    Read more:
    DRC conflict: talks have failed to bring peace. Is it time to try sanctions?

    The turnaround

    In August 2023 and again on 20 February 2025, the US slapped sanctions on key players in Rwanda and the M23 Alliance. The EU and the UK then paused some economic support for Rwanda. This was a strategic signal from the big powers.

    Germany then froze aid, Belgium’s rebuked the country and the EU called for stronger penalties, among them a ban on Rwanda’s mineral industry. This was to force Rwanda to rein in or rethink its activities in the DRC and be a constructive rather than disruptive partner.

    Belgium has had historical relations with both Rwanda and the DRC, having been the last colonial authority. Rwanda took specific exception to Belgium’s action by cutting diplomatic relations. It also took a more belligerent posture in the UN security council.



    Read more:
    M23: Four things you should know about the rebel group’s campaign in Rwanda-DRC conflict

    While this is seen as a non-compromising stance, it is against a lesser western power than the US or the UK. This could be taken as Rwanda saving face while working out an exit strategy to avoid escalating tensions with western powers or provoking far reaching coordinated action.

    It is notable that Qatar (and not a western or African power) has taken a lead in chaperoning talks between the conflict parties. This couldn’t have been without the blessing of the US, given the close relationship Qatar enjoys with the US as conflict resolution partners. Qatar is also an investor in Rwanda. This allows Rwanda to avoid being dragged to the negotiating table by critical western powers.

    Next steps

    The intensity of the conflict has slowed down somewhat, with the M23 rebel alliance having announced a ceasefire and unilateral action to “withdraw” from some of the areas they have recently captured.

    Whether this is a strategic compromise in response to the now forceful demand for Rwanda to cease its active support and intervention is unclear. It is notable that Qatar has now directly invited the rebels to the table.

    Once known as the darling of the west, most notable for clean and efficient government, a good business environment and unquestioned security and stability, Rwanda may have reached an inflection point with its flagrant DRC intervention. The change in western attitude may mark a more critical epoch in relations.

    David E Kiwuwa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Rwanda’s image abroad: how western countries are beginning to turn their backs – https://theconversation.com/rwandas-image-abroad-how-western-countries-are-beginning-to-turn-their-backs-253663

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics aside, new research shows there are good financial reasons to back working from home

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dorina Pojani, Associate Professor in Urban Planning, The University of Queensland

    Fizkes/Shutterstock

    In the pre-industrial era, people often lived and worked in the same building. This removed the need to travel to work.

    The separation of home and work occurred much later, during the Industrial Revolution. Factories and offices were grouped in designated areas and residential zoning was invented.

    Even then, people typically spent about 60 to 90 minutes travelling each day, no matter how technology or urban layouts changed. This is known as Marchetti’s constant.

    The rise of the internet in the 1990s – and more recently, the COVID-19 pandemic – sparked a rethink of commuting. As we head towards the polls in Australia’s largest federal election, working from home has become a hot-button issue.

    Labor and the Coalition have been polarised for and against working from home, citing research and even anecdotes backing their positions.

    That was until this week. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton swung from insisting all public servants would have to return to the office five days a week under the Coalition to saying current arrangements would remain unchanged.

    But beyond political squabbles, what does the latest research – including our own on workers in Brisbane – show?

    Impacts of working from home

    Working from home impacts multiple areas including transport, housing, business and health. A systematic literature review on working from home – covering international studies between 2000 and 2022 – shows it:

    • reduces traffic congestion and saves commuting time. However, it financially strains public transport operators due to lower demand.

    • boosts regional growth as workers relocate in search of larger homes with home-office space. But this raises regional housing demand and prices.

    • helps employers cut costs and increase productivity and job satisfaction rates. It can, however, limit promotion opportunities for remote workers.

    • cuts traffic pollution and improves work-life balance. But it may cause social isolation, overwork, strained family relationships and musculoskeletal problems if ergonomic furniture isn’t used.

    These are short-term effects, which may eventually disappear as society adjusts. The long-term effects are harder to predict because government and workplace policies change, as do economic conditions.

    While working from home reduces the need for daily commuting, people may reallocate this saved time to off-peak trips for shopping or recreation.

    As households move from urban cores, urban sprawl increases, resulting in less frequent but longer trips. This may lead to increased overall travel, offsetting environmental benefits. Marchetti’s constant may no longer hold.

    The redistribution of activity zones may create new economic dynamics. Suburbs and regional centres may gain from more local spending, while areas with fewer shops may rely more on online shopping. Traditional CBDs could decline, needing new uses for office spaces.

    New research on Brisbane workers

    Our new research – to be published in a forthcoming book in Elsevier’s series “Advances in Transport Policy and Planning” – assesses the short-term costs and benefits of working from home for individuals, the private and the public sectors in Brisbane.

    Here, a big shift to working from home occurred during the pandemic. We’ve used secondary and proxy data from 2020-2021 when working from home peaked. During that time, Brisbane was in and out of lockdowns.

    We’ve created an accounting tool that lists the costs and benefits of working from home. The net impact is calculated by subtracting total costs from total benefits, allowing us to measure tangible and, when possible, intangible effects.

    We found individuals and the private sector gained the most, while the public sector has felt the greatest losses. Employees have enjoyed more benefits from working from home than expected, while employers have cut spending in CBDs and seen increased revenues in suburbs.

    In Brisbane the total annual working from home (for individuals, the private and public sector) costs amounted to A$557.5 million, while the total benefits reached $4.1 billion. These benefits outweigh costs by a factor of seven.

    However, this is a preliminary look, rather than a comprehensive account. It is important to remember the cost-benefit balance may evolve over time, depending on technological advances, corporate culture and generational preferences.

    Should Australia continue to support working from home?

    Based on our findings and assuming other state capitals perform like Brisbane, we recommend keeping work from home arrangements. But what about public sector losses?

    While public transport revenues have been lower due to working from home, it doesn’t seem to be a major issue for South East Queensland. Here, 50 cent fares were introduced before the last state election and have since become permanent.

    However, the budgets of public transport operators in other states might be different. In those cases, more proactive measures might be needed. This might involve shifting from peak-hour services to frequent all-day routes and adjusting fares for vulnerable customers.

    Some agencies might offer demand-responsive services, like ride-sharing. If all public transport becomes financially unsustainable, community-based cooperatives could step in.

    These shifts in transport patterns may prompt land-use changes. For instance, businesses relying on daily commuters, like restaurants and shops in city centres, may move to the suburbs or pivot to delivery, take-out or meal-prep kits.

    In any case, not all jobs can be done remotely. Certain sectors, such as manufacturing, healthcare, justice and hospitality will continue to require employees to be physically present.

    Dorina Pojani has received funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Urban Research Infrastructure Network (AURIN), the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads (TMR), and iMOVE Australia Cooperative Research Centre.

    Neil G Sipe has received funding from the Australian Research Foundation.

    Ying Lu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics aside, new research shows there are good financial reasons to back working from home – https://theconversation.com/politics-aside-new-research-shows-there-are-good-financial-reasons-to-back-working-from-home-253629

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: We’re hardwired to laugh – this is why watching comedians try to be the ‘Last One Laughing’ is so funny

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fergus Edwards, Lecturer in English, University of Tasmania

    Amazon MGM Studios

    Last One Laughing is a battle royale for stand-ups. Ten comedians, one room, surrounded by cameras. Laugh once and they’re warned. Laugh again, and they’re out. Last comic left wins.

    It is an international TV phenomenon, in 29 countries from Australia to Iran.

    The latest season is from the United Kingdom, hosted by Jimmy Carr and featuring comedians like Bob Mortimer, Sara Pascoe and Joe Lycett.

    But why do we, whatever our linguistic or cultural background, love watching comedians trying desperately hard not to laugh at each other?

    It works because it’s funny – but it’s not about comedy. It’s about laughter. Philosophers and psychologists have spent hundreds of years thinking about what makes us laugh.

    Here’s what they’ve had to say about laughter – and what they, perhaps, would have to say about Last One Laughing.

    What makes us laugh?

    Comedy takes time, but laughter can take less than a moment. Last One Laughing shows us the three major theories of humour that try to explain moments of spontaneous laughter.

    The oldest is “superiority theory”. English philosopher Thomas Hobbes explained in is 1651 book Leviathan we “maketh those Grimaces called LAUGHTER” when we realise we’re better off than someone else. We “suddenly applaud” ourselves when we recognise our superiority.

    In the new Last One Laughing series, Richard Ayoade nearly catches out two players when, asked what his childhood hobbies were, he replies: “I don’t know. I cried a lot?”

    Irish philosopher Francis Hutcheson disagreed with Hobbes and suggested an alternative: “incongruity theory”.

    In Reflections Upon Laughter (1750) he maintains we laugh in surprise at “bringing resemblances from subjects of a quite different kind from the subject to which they are compared”.

    This happens when we meet one word with two meanings, like in every Christmas cracker joke, or Rob Beckett asking “What did one plate say to the other plate?” and answering “Dinner’s on me”.

    In Jokes and Their Relation to the Unconscious (1905), Austrian founder of psychoanalysis Sigmund Freud suggests our subconscious works to stop us from consciously understanding something that might be socially unacceptable. If we allow ourselves to acknowledge what we think we’re seeing, the energy we had been using to repress ourselves is then “discharged by laughter”.

    Last One Laughing has many, mostly unprintable, moments that illustrate Freud’s relief theory of humour. No-one is at ease when Bob Mortimer’s magic act features a napkin rising into the air at groin height.

    The art of not laughing

    In Anatomy of the Gag (1963), the Czech playwright – and politician – Václav Havel suggests a gag has two phases. We see something and think we know what it is. Then, we see the same thing again – but we recognise it as something different. But the two interpretations can’t both be true! So we know we’ve made a mistake.

    We laugh because of a “surprising quality” that “stems not from the revelation of the unknown, but from the unexpected look at the known”. We laugh because now we know we’re properly seeing the world as it is.

    Comedians laugh at their own jokes because they experience this fresh look at the world before they’ve put it into words. This explains why Mortimer laughs at his own teeth, and Lou Sanders is laughing before she reaches her own punchline. Or, indeed, her own set-up.

    But Last One Laughing doubles our laughs. We watch the actual joke, we get it, we laugh. And then we see comedians desperately trying not to laugh – but we know that they get the joke too! And so we get an unexpected second look at the joke.

    Comedians not laughing when it’s expected is, in itself, a second gag. Our doubled laugh lets us express our understanding of this rather odd thing that’s happening. We’re reassuring ourselves, and anyone with us, that we know what’s going on.

    Understanding the world

    Douglas Robinson’s work in linguistics and Antonio Damasio’s work in neuropsychology suggests our brain and our body learn to respond to the world before our mind has kicked in. We’re physically laughing before we’ve mentally processed what’s funny. We see this response in babies, and it stays with us throughout our lives.

    The feedback that tells us that we’ve understood the world correctly comes from other human beings. So it’s unsurprising we are 30 times more likely to laugh in company. It’s unsurprising that laughter is infectious. And it should be unsurprising that the winning moment of Last One Laughing comes from a game we play with newborns: “peek-a-boo”.

    Last One Laughing helps us understand why we laugh at our own jokes, why we can’t always explain what’s funny, and why gags don’t need words. We’re watching professional comedians get the joke (as we do!) without laughing (as we expect?) but we know that it’s all OK. And, however briefly, we glimpse the world anew.

    Fergus Edwards does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. We’re hardwired to laugh – this is why watching comedians try to be the ‘Last One Laughing’ is so funny – https://theconversation.com/were-hardwired-to-laugh-this-is-why-watching-comedians-try-to-be-the-last-one-laughing-is-so-funny-253935

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor’s $1 billion for mental health is good news for young people in particular – but leaves some gaps

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sebastian Rosenberg, Associate Professor, Health Research Institute, University of Canberra, and Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney

    mooremedia/Shutterstock

    The Labor government has announced it would invest A$1 billion in mental health if re-elected to provide more Australians – particularly young people – with “free, public mental health care”.

    The package includes:

    • $225 million to either build or upgrade 31 Medicare mental health centres

    • more than $200 million to build or upgrade 58 headspace services for young people

    • $500 million to establish 20 youth specialist centres for young people with complex needs

    • $90 million to support more than 1,200 training places for mental health professionals and peer workers.

    This is good news – but there are some important things that are left out.

    A focus on youth

    Some 75% of severe mental health problems develop before a person turns 25. We know intervening early improves clinical outcomes as well as prospects for completing education and maintaining employment in the future.

    So this focus on youth mental health is really welcome and needed. If we can execute it properly, it represents an investment not just in young people and their families, but will also see longer-term benefits for communities and the economy.

    Australia’s continued investment in a network of youth mental health services, headspace, is unique and positive. That said, multiple reviews have found there are often issues finding enough staff to provide appropriate care for the young people accessing these services.

    It’s crucial to ensure existing and new headspace centres have properly trained staff to deliver the required services. The new training places are welcome in this regard but will of course will take time to come on stream.

    The youth specialist centres would be new, and could fill an important gap.

    At present, we have federally funded Medicare services for mental health, such as GPs and psychologists. At the other end of the spectrum there are state-funded hospital inpatient and outpatient services for people with more severe problems.

    What has been missing is much in the middle, in the way of community mental health services. The new specialist centres for young people with complex needs may go some way to filling this gap, but we need more detail about how they’ll operate.

    The importance of holistic care

    This funding package has focused on new provisions for clinical and medical mental health care. While this is important, it neglects psychosocial care.

    Psychosocial services help keep people in stable housing, in employment, at school and enjoying some quality of life. This is what really matters to most people.

    The psychosocial workforce can be found in some of the non-government and charitable organisations providing mental health and community services. It includes people with a range of qualifications, with staff such as social workers, peer workers and others, who can help young people stay connected across these social determinants of health, while they receive treatment from clinical staff for their mental illness.

    Of those needing help for their mental health, a large proportion of young people face multiple concerns, including drugs and alcohol, sexual health or other issues such as unstable housing. So rather than simply seeing one clinician, someone with an eating disorder, for example, may need a team including a psychologist, a GP, a social worker, a dietitian, a nurse and others.

    It’s unclear whether the youth specialist centres would bring together multidisciplinary teams such as this, but it’s important they do, including professionals who can provide psychosocial care.

    A young person with a mental illness may also need help with everyday issues.
    ultramansk/Shutterstock

    Psychosocial support services have traditionally been very poorly funded in Australia. One option could be to set up new Medicare mental health centres to be managed by community sector organisations already using team-based service delivery models.

    Ultimately, while having more services is great, we need to think imaginatively and flexibly about who has the skills to best respond to young people’s needs. A heavy reliance on clinical and medical care, without psychosocial care, is a bit like trying to fight with one arm behind our back.

    A national analysis found that in 2022–23, 335,800 people aged 12–64 with severe mental illness would benefit from 21.9 million hours of psychosocial support services. A further 311,500 people with moderate mental illness would benefit from 3.3 million hours.

    Other questions we need answered

    Different groups face different levels of need and different barriers to accessing mental health care. So if we’re establishing new centres, we need to understand clearly things such as where the highest levels of psychological distress are, and what services will need to look like in areas where a high proportion of young people speak English as a second language.

    What’s more, young women are more likely to seek mental health care than young men. We need to ask what’s making accessing services less appealing to young men and address these issues.

    In a nutshell, we need to develop models of care tailored to local circumstances. This should involve working with local communities, rather than looking to impose centralised, one-size-fits-all solutions.

    We also need to know how well new services will be linked to existing services, such as hospitals, GPs, and non-government organisations providing psychosocial care. If we don’t invest properly in coordination, these changes could risk perpetuating the fragmentation which often hampers our current mental health system.

    Finally, we need a new level of accountability so we can tell whether what we’re doing is helping or not. We need regularly reported outcomes – such as hospital admissions among young people with mental illness – so we can understand system quality and performance, address any issues, and build our collective confidence that we’re meeting the needs of Australia’s young people.

    Without this, we risk well-intentioned investments failing to deliver better support.

    Sebastian Rosenberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Labor’s $1 billion for mental health is good news for young people in particular – but leaves some gaps – https://theconversation.com/labors-1-billion-for-mental-health-is-good-news-for-young-people-in-particular-but-leaves-some-gaps-254054

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –