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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Forever chemicals are in our drinking water – here’s how to reduce them

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stuart Harrad, Professor of Environmental Chemistry, University of Birmingham

    fast-stock/Shutterstock

    News reports of so-called forever chemicals in drinking water have left people worried about the safety of tap and bottled water. But recent research has shown there are ways to significantly reduce the levels of these harmful chemicals in our water.

    Per and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a wide range of synthetic chemicals that are used in many everyday products such as cosmetics, fabrics and food packaging (where they are used to make products resistant to water and grease), as well as in fire-fighting foams.

    Unusually in the chemical universe, the structures of PFAS include groups of atoms within the same molecule that imbue them with both water-hating and water-loving properties. They are also resistant to degradation.

    While this latter characteristic can improve the quality of the products we buy, it also means it is nearly impossible to break these chemicals down once they escape into the environment. Some PFAS chemicals are are also toxic. For example, perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) has been classified as carcinogenic to humans, and has been found to lower immune response to common childhood vaccines.

    PFAS can penetrate human skin and have been found in our drinking water, air, food, and even in human milk.

    Concerns about their safety has led numerous jurisdictions to set limits on levels of some PFAS in drinking water. Nevertheless, many news stories have reported on research finding dangerous levels of PFAS chemicals in drinking water sources in England.



    Read more:
    PFAS forever chemicals found in English drinking water – why are they everywhere and what are the risks?

    With this in mind, my colleagues and I measured concentrations of ten key PFAS in 41 samples of tap water from the West Midlands of the UK and 14 samples from Shenzhen, China. We also measured the same PFAS in 112 samples of bottled water.

    We sampled 87 different brands from 15 countries that we bought either from shops or online in the UK and China. The PFAS we tested included many of those regulated in drinking water as well as some others we have found previously in indoor air and dust.

    Forever chemicals are in our drinking water.
    Shining symbols/Shutterstock

    We compared concentrations of PFAS in plastic and glass bottled water, as well as in sparkling versus still water. In neither case did we find significant differences in concentrations of PFAS. In contrast however, in China we found significantly higher concentrations of PFAS in natural mineral water than in bottled purified water.

    Crucially, while we found PFAS in every sample analysed, the maximum concentration limits set recently by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for some PFAS were only exceeded for PFOA in some samples of tap water from Shenzhen.

    Concentrations of PFAS were lower in bottled water than in tap water from the same locality. This finding is in line with studies conducted in other countries like Spain.

    It may be reassuring to some extent but our study only examined a relatively small number of tap water samples from two municipalities and cannot be taken as representative of the UK or China overall. There is no room for complacency as the USEPA’s target concentration limits for two of the PFAS we measured are zero.

    So, taking note of the lower concentrations we saw in bottled purified water, we examined the effectiveness of boiling and filtration using activated carbon jug filters.

    Boiling in a regular kettle reduced concentrations of all ten of the PFAS we tested. The level of reduction varied between different PFAS though. For PFOA and the three other PFAS that we measured for which there are USEPA concentration limits, concentrations reduced by 11%−14% but were much greater (61%-86%) for the more volatile and non-regulated PFAS we examined that are more easily evaporated.

    Reductions were greater for all the PFAS we tested (81%−96%) when we passed the water through an activated carbon jug filter. Boiling the water after activated carbon filtration, as sometimes happens in China, reduced concentrations a little further to between 81 and 99.6%.

    These results suggest that using a jug water filter can substantially reduce concentrations of some regulated PFAS in our tap water. Boiling water before drinking also reduces PFAS concentrations but is less effective.

    Our findings add to those of a 2024 study in Montreal, which suggested that using a filter fitted to the kitchen tap reduced concentrations of 75 PFAS in tap water.

    Our findings are a small first step towards reducing our exposure to PFAS. But we should not lose sight of the need to reduce and eliminate such forever chemicals. There’s still a lot we don’t understand about these chemicals but what we’ve learned so far shows that some of them present an urgent threat to the health of both humans and wildlife.

    Stuart Harrad has received funding from the Environmental Protection Agency of Ireland and the European Union.

    – ref. Forever chemicals are in our drinking water – here’s how to reduce them – https://theconversation.com/forever-chemicals-are-in-our-drinking-water-heres-how-to-reduce-them-241645

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The UK plans to rebuild its crumbling classrooms – but it should take this chance to transform the school environment

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Edward Edgerton, Reader in Psychology, University of the West of Scotland

    Inside Creative House/Shutterstock

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves has pledged £1.4 billion to meet a target of rebuilding 50 schools in England a year. The funding boost follows the news of slow progress on the government’s school rebuilding programme. This effort began in 2020 but has been under particular scrutiny since the closure of school buildings made with reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete (Raac) in 2023.

    A 2023 report from the National Audit Office estimated that 700,000 students in England are learning in schools that the Department for Education believes require major rebuilding or refurbishment.

    These rebuilding programmes have promised to produce state-of-the-art schools. But I believe that the focus in the UK is still too much on the condition of the building, rather than the approach in countries like Finland where the focus is on the relationship between school design and teaching and learning practice.

    In Scotland, recent figures highlight that 91.7% of school buildings are in a “good/satisfactory” condition, and 92.0% of pupils are now educated in school environments rated as “good/satisfactory” condition. Here, condition refers to the state of the school fabric – such as state of, the appropriateness of the design, and the health-and-safety requirements.

    In the past, researchers have questioned whether there is any need to go beyond this minimum standard and suggested that schools might not need to be any more than adequate.

    I believe there should be higher aspirations for the UK’s school estate. To understand why, we need to think about the role of the school environment. It is much more than simply providing a safe, weatherproof building for teaching children and young people.

    Many studies have shown that teaching and learning activities can be impaired by environmental characteristics such as noise, ventilation, colour and furniture arrangement.

    However, there is disappointingly little research that explores the whole school environment, how it is experienced by students and how it relates to important outcomes, such as exam results.

    There are some notable exceptions. A report on primary schools in England, conducted by researchers from the University of Salford in 2015, showed that well-designed classrooms can boost children’s academic performance in reading, writing and maths.

    A few aspects were of particular importance. They included naturalness (the light, temperature and air quality), individualisation (classrooms with varied floor plan shapes and breakout spaces, along with elements that pupils can personalise such as coat pegs) and stimulation (appropriate levels of complexity in use of colour and wall displays).

    Student experience

    My own research with colleagues on secondary schools in Scotland showed that there were substantial improvements in students’ feelings of security and small improvements in behaviour and motivation for learning in newly built schools.

    We found that these improvements were long lasting and were not due simply to the effect of their novelty. The improvements in feelings of safety and security seem to be linked to features such as more spacious corridors and staircases with natural daylight and good locker facilities.



    Read more:
    School concrete crisis: how Raac has been used well beyond its expiry date

    We also found that how students experience and evaluate their school environment is related to their academic performance. Students with more positive perceptions of their school environment have better academic performance. This is especially true where pupils feel positive about the physical comfort of the social and teaching spaces in the school.

    School rebuilding programmes provide a unique opportunity for educational experts, environmental psychologists and design professionals to collaborate to find out what works and why.

    The need to recognise and learn about the role of school buildings in the education process is only likely to increase as we accommodate more students with additional support needs in mainstream schools and strive to create inclusive schools that respond to needs of neurodiverse students.

    The government’s ambition for school rebuilding should go beyond simply fixing crumbling schools. As well as supporting learning and teaching, schools should provide an environment that encourages young people in their social development and aims to give them the best start in life possible.

    Edward Edgerton received funding from East Dunbartonshire Council for a research project evaluating
    its secondary school rebuilding programme (2006-2010).

    – ref. The UK plans to rebuild its crumbling classrooms – but it should take this chance to transform the school environment – https://theconversation.com/the-uk-plans-to-rebuild-its-crumbling-classrooms-but-it-should-take-this-chance-to-transform-the-school-environment-241838

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Colonialism, starvation and resistance: How food is weaponized, from Gaza to Canada

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Charles Z. Levkoe, Canada Research Chair in Equitable and Sustainable Food Systems, Lakehead University

    For more than a year, the Israeli state has been engaged in a massive incursion into Gaza following the October 2023 Hamas attack against Israel.

    In March 2024, Francesca Albanese, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, announced: “There are reasonable grounds to believe that the threshold indicating the commission of the crime of genocide…has been met.”

    A core element of this apparent genocide includes food militarization and weaponization, a tactic that has also been used by Canada to exterminate, dispossess and control Indigenous populations.

    We have come together as a group of critical food systems scholars to examine the parallels between the weaponization of food in Gaza and Canada to bring about the systematic destruction of Indigenous Peoples. But we’ve also observed that food has been a powerful tool of resistance and resurgence.



    Read more:
    Israeli siege has placed Gazans at risk of starvation − prewar policies made them vulnerable in the first place

    Food as a weapon

    Throughout modern history, food has been deployed as a weapon by colonial regimes to control and displace Indigenous populations. The current crisis in Gaza has brought this into sharp focus as the Israeli state has engaged in the systematic destruction of Palestinian food systems, with devastating consequences.

    Israel’s blockade of Gaza, in place since 2007, has cut off access to essential agricultural areas and restricted fishing activities. Gaza farmers are often unable to access their land, while fishers are constantly barred from accessing the coast, harassed, intimidated and even killed by Israeli forces.

    This blockade, combined with military operations that destroy farmland, trees and infrastructure, has resulted in more than 95 per cent of people in Gaza facing severe food insecurity and a famine declared by the United Nations experts in the summer of 2024.



    Read more:
    Starvation is a weapon of war: Gazans are paying the price

    Canada’s use of food weaponization

    Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, the Canadian government employed similar tactics to restrict Indigenous Peoples’ access to land, food and water. Colonial policies like the Indian Act, the Homesteading Act and the Pass System confined Indigenous Peoples to reserves, prohibited hunting and fishing and forced reliance on inadequate government food rations.

    This led to malnutrition and starvation, particularly in response to Indigenous resistance to settler expansion. The use of food as a weapon was part of a broader project to eliminate or otherwise undermine Indigenous identity and self-determination, a process that continues today.

    From ongoing boil-water advisories to environmental degradation caused by mining, oil and gas extraction, forestry, agriculture and chemical production, settler governments and industries continue to dispossess Indigenous Peoples from their lands and undermine their livelihood.

    These practices have severely and disproportionately impacted Indigenous health and well-being, as well as their food systems.



    Read more:
    Colonialists used starvation as a tool of oppression

    The Scream, by Kent Monkman (2016), was part of a travelling exhibition in 2017 on colonized Canada entitled ‘Shame And Prejudice: A Story Of Resilience.’
    (Courtesy of Kent Monkman)

    Israel targets food infrastructure

    In the occupied Palestinian territories, Israeli control over land and resources reflects a similar colonial dynamic. Laws like the Absentee Property Law of 1950 facilitated the expropriation of Palestinian land.

    Meanwhile, the Israeli military has systematically targeted Gaza’s food infrastructure and used starvation as a weapon of war, according to Human Rights Watch. Satellite imagery shows that 70 per cent of Gaza’s tree cover has been eliminated or damaged, and about one-third of greenhouses have been demolished.

    Tanks and trucks have decimated orchards, field crops and olive groves.

    An estimated 800,000 tonnes of asbestos among the debris of destroyed buildings will result in asbestos-related diseases for generations to come. Under the Geneva Conventions, destruction of civilians’ means of survival and starvation as a tool of warfare is strictly prohibited.

    Food as resistance

    Food has also long been mobilized as a powerful tool of resistance. Among Palestinians, struggles for food sovereignty have played a critical role in self-determination.

    Palestinians continue to cultivate their land under the rubble, grow olive trees despite ongoing violence and maintain food practices that connect them to their lands and their cultural heritage.

    Similarly, Indigenous nations and communities across Canada have used food as a form of resurgence. Alongside land back movements, efforts to revitalize Indigenous food systems — such as hunting, fishing, growing and gathering — are central to movements for Indigenous sovereignty.

    Learning about and enacting traditional food practices are important acts of resistance, as these practices sustain communities, strengthen connections to land and assert rights over the unceded territories Indigenous Peoples are fighting to reclaim. By reclaiming and rebuilding their land and food systems on their own terms, they continue to challenge colonial structures.

    Food, colonialism and resistance

    The destruction of food systems in Gaza and Canada is part of a larger effort of land dispossession and capitalist accumulation. By severing Indigenous Peoples’ connection to their food systems, settlers and colonial regimes have sought to control not only the land but also the people who depend on it.

    Yet, through food sovereignty movements, these same populations are reclaiming their right to self-determination and building global networks of solidarity.



    Read more:
    Indigenous food sovereignty requires better and more accurate data collection

    The struggle for food sovereignty is inseparable from broader struggles for land, justice and self-determination.

    Connecting the dots between the Palestinian territories and Canada provides powerful examples of global colonial relations and struggles for justice and self-determination. It challenges us to critically examine the role of food in these struggles and demand government accountability.

    We wish to acknowledge Mustafa Koç, professor emeritus at Toronto Metropolitan University, as a co-author and to thank Max Ajl, Yafa Al Masri and Justin Podur for contributions to this article.

    Charles Z. Levkoe receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the the Government of Ontario.

    Sarah Rotz receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    Tammara Soma receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    Martha Stiegman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Colonialism, starvation and resistance: How food is weaponized, from Gaza to Canada – https://theconversation.com/colonialism-starvation-and-resistance-how-food-is-weaponized-from-gaza-to-canada-241525

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A new president will be elected − but it may take some time to determine who wins

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By John M. Murphy, Professor of Communication, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

    For more than 100 years, media of many kinds tried to be the first to report presidential election results. Although that urge still exists, pundits and analysts are now more concerned with accuracy than speed.

    That’s because of the 2020 election. A raging pandemic, a divided country, a close race, polling failures, false presidential claims of voter fraud and uncertainty made everyone anxious. Then came the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, which meant the election was about more than the presidency – it was about democracy itself.

    What’s most important now is not being first but rather being right. In recent decades, Americans have gotten used to media organizations declaring the winners of races in the hours or days after the polls close, but those are not official results. They are projections based on the available unofficial information. The formal results of the election are checked and certified through a process that takes weeks to months – and potentially longer, if lawsuits are filed.

    A wrong call could spark violence, particularly because Donald Trump has yet to say that he will accept the results of the 2024 election if he loses.

    Media figures and election officials are preparing Americans for the fact that we might have to wait some time to get an accurate call. As in 2020, they’re using metaphor to shape public expectations. But this year, they’re also explicitly trying to define the nation’s perceptions of time, in terms of which results count as on time or as delayed.

    Sometimes what you see isn’t actually what’s real.
    simon’s photo/Moment via Getty Images

    Don’t get confused by mirages

    A metaphor is a linguistic device that describes something in terms of something else, usually to highlight an important idea. If we see a football team as the Bears, we know they’re not literally animals, but they are ferocious. As a scholar of presidential rhetoric and political campaigns, I know it’s important to notice metaphors because they often shape public perceptions.

    As members of the media prepare themselves and the public for an uncertain election night, they’re worried that Americans will be misled by false or incomplete information in the early returns. Fredreka Schouten and Sara Murray of CNN Politics write, “Election officials worry that delays in counting could give the public a false sense of who’s winning the election.” The Republican Pennsylvania secretary of state adds, “It’s obviously a concern.” And so, as they did in 2020, they’re again using the metaphor of “mirage.”

    A mirage is an optical illusion, something that looks real but is not. Old adventure movies would show a mirage of water in a desert. Lost explorers with empty canteens would run excitedly toward a sparkling oasis, only to find nothing but sand.

    In 2020, no one was quite sure whether the early results would show a red or a blue mirage and so they suggested it could vary by state. For example, some states, such as Florida and Arizona, counted mail ballots as they arrived, even before Election Day. In those states, Vox reported, the early “results might look overwhelmingly favorable to Joe Biden and other Democratic candidates.”

    In 2024, the overwhelming expectation is that early returns in this year’s key states will look better for Republicans. Reporter Nick Corasaniti of The New York Times wrote that “Democratic operatives” have come to expect “‘the red mirage,’ the result of far more Democrats than Republicans opting to vote by mail, leading to Democratic votes being counted later.” The editorial board of The Washington Post fretted in September 2024 that Trump “used this so-called red mirage in 2020 to declare victory and insist that the counting stop.” The implication was clear: a fear he might do so again.

    People tend to see what they want to see. Those lost explorers want and need water, much as Trump yearns for victory. And mirages are partly self-deception. Partisans want that beautiful picture of triumph, blue or red seas cascading across screens on election night. These feelings explain why the mirage metaphor works well for the media: It signals that campaigns and the public see what they hope for, not what’s there. Wait, the metaphor tells us. Wait until we know it’s real.

    Try not to lose sleep waiting for the results.
    fcafotodigital/E+ via Getty Images

    A wait doesn’t mean it’s late

    To make the waiting easier, the media has also explicitly tried to shape the public’s perceptions of time. This is not a new idea: The ancient Greeks used the term “kairos” to talk about timing in public speech – when we should speak, how we define time in that speech, and what sorts of times we live in.

    For example, an NBC report catalogs changes various states have made since 2020 to speed up the counting, but nonetheless notes “in the event of a close race, a handful of key battleground states could keep Americans waiting well beyond Election Day.” In early October 2024, Arizona’s secretary of state told a group at Harvard the results would take “thirteen days and we’re not doing it any sooner because we’re going to get it right.”

    At that same Harvard meeting, Pennsylvania Secretary of State Al Schmidt disputed the concept that taking time to count votes constituted a “delay.”

    “It’s not a delay at all. It takes time to count millions of votes, with integrity, especially when you can only start at 7 a.m. on election morning,” Schmidt said.

    Taken together, the two persuasive strategies urge patience. A mirage will appear, but it is false, alluring and dangerous. It does not reflect reality. Reality will come in time, the proper time, in its season. This isn’t a delay, because it takes time to get things right. This election poses enough dangers, these officials and the media believe. All Americans need to take – or give – the time to get the count right.

    Some of the material in this article was previously published on Nov. 3, 2020.

    John M. Murphy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A new president will be elected − but it may take some time to determine who wins – https://theconversation.com/a-new-president-will-be-elected-but-it-may-take-some-time-to-determine-who-wins-241199

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Want to go viral this #Halloween? It’s all about tapping into fun, fears and algorithms

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anastasia Denisova, Senior Lecturer in Journalism, University of Westminster

    Here they come: an apron and tattoos that make you look like chef Carmy from The Bear, or weird insect-like accessories resembling the infamous Paris Fashion Week bedbugs – new year, new over-the-top inventive Halloween trends. Thanks to the proliferation of social media platforms like TikTok and Instagram, we’re in for a treat for this year’s online Halloween extravaganza.

    What used to be a traditional holiday celebrated with reverence by the people remembering the religious meaning of All Hallow’s Eve, or simply an excuse for phantasmagorical parties by those who didn’t, Halloween is now exhibiting a whole new digital layer.

    Last year, the hashtag #Halloween was viewed three billion times in a week. We live in a time of “information fatigue”, “information anxiety” or even “infobesity”, as some academics call our oversaturated media environment, with plentiful, often unpleasant stimuli coming from the news and social media.

    No one’s 20s and 30s look the same. You might be saving for a mortgage or just struggling to pay rent. You could be swiping dating apps, or trying to understand childcare. No matter your current challenges, our Quarter Life series has articles to share in the group chat, or just to remind you that you’re not alone.

    Read more from Quarter Life:

    All this badly affects our biological systems, which have not developed as fast as the media environment. As a result, we are overwhelmed, anxious, overstimulated and struggling with processing so much information. It is hard to cut through this noise, whether you’re a journalist, politician, influencer or just someone having fun in a pumpkin latte costume.

    In my research on viral journalism, I discovered that even professional communicators struggle to keep up with the changes in social media algorithms and various new functions of these platforms. Many feel discouraged by the non-transparency of social media giants and prefer to rely on classic principles of strong reporting and creative presentation formats. But what are the triggers for media virality for those who still want their posts to explode online?

    Not a virus, but a choice

    Halloween, like St Valentine’s Day and other annual celebrations, presents a chance to be the new viral sensation, simply because using the hashtag #Halloween instantly grants additional visibility.

    Virality stands on two pillars – the opaque algorithms of social networks, and people’s emotional reactions. Unlike viruses, from which the word “viral” originates, virality online is not a malady, but a choice. People instinctively choose content that will satisfy their needs. These can be having something to think about, or a distraction, so we don’t have to think about other things going on in the world.

    Engagement with stories online is seldom rational – research has shown that emotions dominate our relationship with news and social media. The feelings of awe, anger and anxiety are the strongest predictors for a post to go viral.

    So how, when creating content, do we achieve the coveted reaction of “awe”? This feeling can be described in a variety of ways, from a religious epiphany, to deep appreciation because we’re impressed, to the sense of calm experienced through nature. This is where the theory of memes can help.

    Halloween costumes on social media are, essentially, wearable and broadcastable memes. These, as my book Internet Memes and Society explains, are half-baked jokes and weird cryptic artefacts that tempt users to figure out why they are supposed to be funny.

    Memes are used as everyday language, political tools, and “fast-food” media. Will a costume based on Only Murders in the Buildings’ Christmas fitness influencer make it to viral stardom? Will it be another take on the brat summer? Or perhaps some twisted commentaries on the cost-of-living crisis?

    Theories of humour and Halloween costumes

    I predict that virality this season will demand either to go full-on maximalist, or be understated and minimalist. The theories of humour stand on three pillars: humour as release, humour as aggression, and humour as incongruity.

    Perhaps we will also see the manifestations of what Plato called comedy as scorn: “Taken generally,” the ancient Greek philosopher mused, “the ridiculous is a certain kind of evil, specifically a vice.” Expect the highest-earning or most influential celebrities to be shoved off their pedestal and roundly mocked in a Halloween costume.

    What about incongruity? Some of the more absurd costumes from last year featured a drink coaster and a paper bag, or a man dressed as a ULEZ street camera. These examples generate a reaction of awe, surprise and glee, making the posts worthy of sharing.

    And finally, release. Humour is invaluable when it comes to dissipating worries or letting off steam. The recent viral sensation from the music band The Kiffness’ “Eating the cats” ft Donald Trump hilariously reimagined a phrase from the US presidential debate as a soft reggae hit – and a hit it has become, amassing eight million views in a matter of weeks.

    This Halloween will surely see a couple of TikTokers dressed as cats, or dogs, or even “a catalogue of other things to eat”. Humour allows us to reveal the ridiculousness of certain political claims, and therefore serves as a soothing tool that unites people and challenges those in power through mockery.

    Virality as modern mythology

    Virality – memes included – forms the modern mythology. The media informs our collective identities and often the things we think about, which means the themes of this Halloween will most likely reveal what people are scared of as a way to release those fears.

    Who will people mock because they feel intimidated by a particular public figure’s power, wealth, talent, influence, looks or profile (aggression). Or who or what do people find awe-inspiring or puzzling this year (incongruity)?

    After all, Halloween is the one time of the year that reminds people of the medieval carnivals of the 14th century – the only time jesters and critics could come to the main square and have a go at the king. The digital carnival (as academics like myself sometimes call the digital mockery of the elites) is not limited to a specific time in the year.

    The never-ending flow of ridicule, sarcasm and dressing up online never ceases to amaze viral studies academics. But the end of October sees a particular concentration of this subversion, attracting the attention of the digital crowds seeking to laugh at the rich, famous and powerful.

    People form and negotiate cultural codes through viral cultures, by choosing what posts to share, like, and comment on. Through these interactions, valuable meanings and identities emerge, and it will be fascinating to see which meanings the collective beehive wants to focus on this Halloween 2024. Whether that’s Carmy Berzatto in his blue apron or the cats and dogs of Springfield.

    Anastasia Denisova does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Want to go viral this #Halloween? It’s all about tapping into fun, fears and algorithms – https://theconversation.com/want-to-go-viral-this-halloween-its-all-about-tapping-into-fun-fears-and-algorithms-242166

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can a superstar hippo help save Africa’s rainforests?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Will de Freitas, Environment + Energy Editor, UK edition

    The world’s first superstar hippo lives in a zoo in Thailand. Moo Deng shot to fame soon after she was born in July this year, thanks to viral videos that showed off her cute expressions and chirpy demeanour. Yet the story of her species is less happy, and reveals the close links between the extinction and climate change crises.

    Moo Deng is a pygmy hippo, a species native to the forests of west Africa. Unlike their bigger and significantly scarier cousins (regular hippos), the pygmys are secretive creatures, who like to conceal themselves in swamps and dense vegetation.

    Today, pygmy hippos are officially listed as endangered. Huanyuan Zhang-Zheng and Sulemana Bawa, conservationists at the University of Oxford, point out that 80% of their native forests have been lost. Just 2,500 remain in the wild.



    Read more:
    Moo Deng: the celebrated hippo’s real home has disappeared – will the world restore it?

    “Cocoa production is probably the biggest cause of forest loss,” they write, “then gold mining and unsustainable logging. These activities now encroach on forest reserves and other supposedly protected areas.”


    This roundup of The Conversation’s climate coverage comes from our award-winning weekly climate action newsletter. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 35,000+ readers who’ve subscribed.

    You probably didn’t want to hear this (I certainly didn’t) but it seems chocolate is helping wipe out the pygmy hippo. This pressure is unlikely to let up any time soon: the Ivory Coast, home of most of these hippos, is also the world’s number one cocoa exporter.

    But it was another passage in their article which really caught my eye. Zhang-Zheng and Bawa wrote: “West Africa’s forest loss is particularly heartbreaking as research shows that a remaining patch may be the most productive on Earth, surpassing even the Amazon rainforest.” (Productive, in this context, refers to how much plant growth there is).

    Before extensive fieldwork beginning in 2016, researchers had underestimated the value of west African forests, particularly their capacity to store carbon and thereby offset global warming. This oversight was partly the result of these forests being hidden by clouds, which makes satellite observation difficult, and their relative neglect by western researchers compared with other ecosystems elsewhere.

    This made me wince. Has The Conversation been part of this neglect? After all, Jack and I have edited dozens of articles on the Amazon and its role in the climate system, but relatively few on forests in Africa.

    Researchers are doing their best to highlight how important these forests are for the climate. Here’s one of them, Michele Francis of Stellenbosch University in South Africa, writing about her research on a “sacred forest” in Togo, west Africa: “My calculations showed that one hectare of forest [about two and a half football pitches] is able to permanently remove as much carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as is released by a power station burning nearly 16 tonnes of coal.”



    Read more:
    ‘Sacred forests’ in West Africa capture carbon and keep soil healthy

    African forest elephants, like this one in the Republic of Congo, are smaller than their cousins on the savanna.
    Roger de la Harpe / shutterstock

    But Africa’s biggest forest by far is found a thousand miles to the south east, in the Congo Basin. The world’s second largest rainforest is almost half the size of the Amazon yet has only a small portion of its global fame.

    As the forest is underresearched, there are still huge discoveries to be made. Back in 2017, Simon Lewis and Greta Dargie of the University of Leeds lead a UK-Congolese team who first mapped out an England-sized tropical peatland – the world’s largest – under marshy wetlands deep in the jungles of Congo. They wrote about this for The Conversation at the time:

    After 17 days, covering just 1.5km a day, we finally reached the centre of the swamp between two of the major rivers. Our reward was not only the knowledge that these peatlands are indeed vast. We also found ever-deeper peat, reaching up to 5.9m, roughly the height of a two-storey building.



    Read more:
    How we discovered the world’s largest tropical peatland, deep in the jungles of Congo

    Peat is made of partially-decomposed plant matter and can store extraordinary amounts of carbon. Lewis and Dargie “found 30 billion metric tonnes of carbon stored in this new ecosystem that nobody knew existed. That’s equivalent to 20 years of current US fossil fuel emissions.”

    This rainforest, and its huge carbon stores, are under threat. In 2022, Lewis, writing with his Leeds colleague Bart Crezee, warned that plans to drill for oil in the Democratic Republic of Congo could be “the beginning of the end for these peatlands”.



    Read more:
    Congo peat swamps store three years of global carbon emissions – imminent oil drilling could release it

    They updated their map of Congolese peatlands and overlayed it on a map of proposed oil concessions. They discovered:

    The upcoming sale of rights to explore for fossil fuels includes close to 1 million hectares of peat swamp forest. If destroyed by the construction of roads, pipelines and other infrastructure needed to extract the oil, we estimate that up to 6 billion tonnes of CO₂ could be released, equivalent to 14 years’ worth of current UK greenhouse gas emissions.

    In late 2023, DR Congo postponed its plans to drill for oil. It seems the scientists really were listened to – for the time being at least.

    Yet oil drilling is only one threat, in one corner of a vast forest. Researchers lead by Judith Verweijen of the University of Antwerp have written about the armed conflicts and industrial mining affecting the eastern end of the same Congo Basin.



    Read more:
    Mining and armed conflict threaten eastern DRC’s biodiversity in a complex web

    The mines, for instance, degrade the soil and pollute the water, and trees must be cleared to make way for them.

    But Verweijen and colleagues say there are also indirect effects that “stem from the construction of new roads to make mining sites accessible, and population growth in the vicinity of mines. This leads to further natural resource exploitation, such as fuel and construction wood extraction, bushmeat hunting and shifting agriculture.”

    None of this has caused the same global outcry as fires in the Amazon or palm oil deforestation in Indonesia. What might fix that?

    Back to Moo Deng. Many conservation academics will tell you that a single well-known species can be the key to saving an entire ecosystem and its often boring-but-crucial biodiversity. Protect the tigers, pandas or pygmy hippos, and you’ll also ensure the survival of the worms, ants and peat bogs.

    If it takes a viral hippo to at least cast some attention on the disappearing rainforests of Africa, then so be it.

    – ref. Can a superstar hippo help save Africa’s rainforests? – https://theconversation.com/can-a-superstar-hippo-help-save-africas-rainforests-242481

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nick Bosa’s MAGA hat vs. Colin Kaepernick’s kneeling: Will the NFL reveal a double standard?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Noah Eliot Vanderhoeven, PhD Candidate, Political Science, Western University

    After the San Francisco 49ers won its Oct. 27 National Football League game against the Dallas Cowboys, their star defensive lineman Nick Bosa, appeared in a post-game media segment wearing a “Make America Great Again” hat in violation of the league’s uniform rules.

    The NFL has avoided overt political messages since former 49er Colin Kaepernick’s anthem protests against police brutality against Black Americans. But what are the implications of a white player displaying an overt political message right before the United States presidential election?

    Kaepernick received heavy media scrutiny and was very quickly exiled from the NFL for his protest and the apparent “distraction” it created. The power of the backlash Kaepernick faced was surprising, given that Democrats and Republicans are just as likely to be avid sports fans, with no meaningful differences in the strength of their fandom.

    However, Republican sports fans tend to be more vocal about what causes should receive representation in sport spaces and make these judgments based on greater support for individualism and the military. That means there’s little evidence to support the argument that Americans want sports and politics to remain separate.

    Nevertheless, support for conservative causes in sports spaces are generally accepted while progressive causes face strong resistance.



    Read more:
    How professional sports leagues that embrace social justice causes could influence politics

    Limits on social justice stances

    For example, the NFL was slow to adopt anti-racism messaging following the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis in May 2020 by a police officer ultimately convicted of murder.

    Players initially felt they were being silenced by proposed league rules preventing players from kneeling during the national anthem. Eventually, the NFL agreed to allow players to feature social justice statements on the backs of their helmets. But this only came about after pushback from Black players, and they were limited to one of six pre-approved statements.

    Generally, the NFL has preferred to support non-partisan political messaging. One example is “get out the vote” initiatives. That has not changed in the lead-up to the 2024 election, as teams have been holding voter registration sessions and featuring the word “vote” prominently in their end zones.

    Bosa’s actions, however, were certainly partisan and constitute athlete activism, regardless of whether he wants to discuss his views any further.

    Previous acts of protest

    Donald Trump’s second candidacy to become president, and the re-emergence of a vocal white ethno-nationalist voice in American politics, has seemingly motivated the demand for agency and fuelled new activism by predominantly Black athletes. Bosa, in the meantime, has used his platform via the NFL to support Trump.

    The literature covering the intersection of sport and politics has mainly focused on individual acts of protest and nationalism. One prominent example are the protests by American sprinters John Carlos and Tommie Smith during the 1968 Olympics in Mexico City.



    Read more:
    The Olympics are ‘on the wrong side of history’ when it comes to free speech

    U.S. athletes Tommie Smith, centre, and John Carlos extend gloved hands skyward in racial protest during the playing of national anthem at the 1968 Olympics.
    (AP Photo)

    Their raised fists while on the medal podium were met with resistance and disapproval, with some commentators at the time arguing their protest was unnecessary and petty. Still today, many believe sport is an improper venue for political messaging.

    In turn, Kaepernick’s protest against police brutality and historic inequalities was seen as unpatriotic, and faced significant criticism.

    Will Bosa face a similar backlash? It seems highly unlikely, especially since Bosa’s support for Trump will probably be framed as patriotic due to the former president’s populist rhetoric about returning America to greatness.

    Double standard?

    The severe backlash against Kaepernick’s protest was driven by conservatives and centred on perceived disrespect for the military and the American flag. Those same conservatives are likely to defend Bosa’s actions, and will probably argue his hat was an expression of his First Amendment rights if the NFL takes serious action against him.

    Former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) and outside linebacker Eli Harold (58) kneel during the playing of the national anthem before an NFL football game against the Atlanta Falcons in Atlanta.
    (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

    But when Bosa donned a piece of campaign merchandise on national television a little over a week out from a contentious presidential election, it was overtly political — arguably just as overtly political as taking a knee during the national anthem.

    At the moment, given the NFL’s lack of action against him, Bosa seems to be benefitting from a double standard when it comes to the intersection of sports and politics.

    It doesn’t appear Bosa is going to be suspended or miss any games for his actions. The NFL has until Saturday to announce any consequences for him, and it’s likely he’ll be fined up to US$11,000 for violating the NFL’s uniform rules by wearing unauthorized logos or branding.

    But that fine is probably the full extent of the repercussions Bosa will face, and $11,000 is a bargain for a national television advertisement when the Trump campaign is already spending tens of millions of dollars on advertising.

    ‘Stick to sports’

    Furthermore, Bosa is unlikely to face the kind of dehumanization faced by progressive activist athletes that misappropriates their cause and fuels hostility towards them. When athletes protest in support of social causes, they often see their job market and marketing profile take a hit.

    This is another example that shows when conservatives say athletes should “stick to sports” or “shut up and dribble,” they don’t actually want politics out of sports entirely.

    Rather, they don’t want to see political views they oppose being platformed in professional sports spaces.

    If they agree with the politics, sporting events are seemingly just another stop on the campaign trail.

    Noah Eliot Vanderhoeven does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Nick Bosa’s MAGA hat vs. Colin Kaepernick’s kneeling: Will the NFL reveal a double standard? – https://theconversation.com/nick-bosas-maga-hat-vs-colin-kaepernicks-kneeling-will-the-nfl-reveal-a-double-standard-242468

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The ‘nocebo effect’ in IBS: Why gluten might not be the real problem

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Caroline Seiler, PhD, McMaster University

    One-third of patients with irritable bowel syndrome aslo have disordered eating habits and perceptions about food that may cause symptoms in and of themselves. (Shutterstock)

    Many people find that wheat or gluten cause them to react in some way: Some people have a wheat allergy, some have the autoimmune condition celiac disease, but the majority find they have some sort of intolerance or sensitivity to wheat and gluten.

    This is challenging to diagnose because there still aren’t any reliable biomarkers to confirm gluten or wheat sensitivity, and clinicians typically rely on patient self-reports.

    In irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), patients experience gastrointestinal symptoms without any visible damage to the digestive tract. Many patients with IBS believe that specific foods, like gluten or wheat, trigger their symptoms, prompting them to exclude these foods from their diets without consulting a dietitian or their doctor.

    Unsurprisingly, about a third of IBS patients develop disordered eating habits and perceptions about food that may cause symptoms in and of themselves, such as orthorexia, or an unhealthy preoccupation with healthy eating. This may cause a “nocebo effect,” where patients experience symptoms due to their beliefs and expectations about a substance they assume is causing their issues but is actually inert — a “nocebo.”

    Identifying the true sensitivities for patients with IBS is a controversial research area, with some studies finding gluten avoidance to be beneficial versus others finding it to have [no significant effect.
    (Shutterstock)

    As a nutrition researcher at McMaster University’s Farncombe Institute, I’m a member of a team that ran a clinical trial to find out whether wheat, gluten or a gluten-free nocebo caused symptoms in IBS. And the results were surprising: even though some patients experienced worse symptoms from gluten or wheat, they weren’t very different from the nocebo, with similar proportions of patients reacting to each.

    These results are similar to other published studies. Identifying the true sensitivities for patients with IBS is a controversial research area, with some studies finding gluten avoidance to be beneficial versus others finding it to have no significant effect.

    Researchers from the United Kingdom and the Netherlands published an innovative study from the Lancet medical journal. Patients with reported gluten sensitivity were divided into four groups: Two groups were given gluten-free bread, but one of these groups was told it contained gluten and one was told it didn’t. Two other groups were given bread that did contain gluten, with one group believing it was gluten-free and the other believing it contained gluten.

    The results showed that the patients who ate gluten and were also told they were eating gluten had significantly worse symptoms than the other three groups.

    Why are people concerned about gluten?

    Patients with IBS are often left to navigate conflicting online resources and test new diets to treat their symptoms.
    (Shutterstock)

    Given the controversial evidence that not only gluten, but other wheat components like fermentable carbohydrates or immune-stimulating proteins, may exacerbate IBS symptoms, it’s possible for this hot topic to get blown out of proportion or taken out of context, contributing to nutrition misinformation.

    All of these factors — that it is often diagnosed by excluding all other options, the significant psychological component, the division in the scientific community and clinicians who often discount patients’ experiences — make treatment difficult for patients with this disorder.

    As a result, patients with IBS are often left to navigate conflicting online resources and test new diets to treat their symptoms.

    How patients respond to evidence

    When researchers challenge patients with gluten, wheat or a nocebo, they rarely report the personalized results back to the patients and see how this information impacts patient behaviour.

    At McMaster University, we wanted to see how presenting personalized nutrition information would affect our patients. After providing them with personal results about their gluten and wheat reactions, we followed up with patients after six months or more to see how this impacted their beliefs, behaviours and symptoms.

    Again, we were in for a surprise! Patients largely kept similar beliefs about gluten, maintained a gluten-free diet and had consistent symptoms even after learning that most of them did not react to gluten or wheat. This begs the question: when people more generally learn new information that conflicts with an existing belief, what may help them to change accordingly?

    The role of psychology in treating IBS

    IBS has been long understood as a disorder of the gut-brain interaction. Psychological treatments are being increasingly investigated to minimize patient fears of foods, or nocebo effects, and to treat IBS symptoms more generally. At Harvard, a recent study found that exposure-based cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) showed promise to improve IBS symptoms in five sessions with a nurse practitioner.

    Similarly, CBT correlated with shifts in brain networks and the gut microbiome, or gut bacteria, that were also correlated with improvements in gastrointestinal symptoms. At the University of Calgary, virtually delivered yoga was highly feasible and helped improve symptoms for patients with IBS.

    However, IBS is a complex disorder which may be exacerbated due to many different causes, and psychological treatment will likely be only one component of an effective treatment plan for many patients.

    Diet plays an important role in human health, but how it does so — especially among those with gastrointestinal diseases — becomes complicated by the emotional aspects of eating and the real needs for people to have nutritious, well-balanced diets without risking malnutrition. If you have concerns that certain foods, like gluten, trigger your symptoms, it’s a good idea to consult your doctor or a registered dietitian.

    Caroline Seiler receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

    – ref. The ‘nocebo effect’ in IBS: Why gluten might not be the real problem – https://theconversation.com/the-nocebo-effect-in-ibs-why-gluten-might-not-be-the-real-problem-241553

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘Each bears his own ghosts’: How the classics speak to these days of fear, anger and presidential candidates stalking the land

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Rachel Hadas, Professor of English, Rutgers University – Newark

    “Fear stalks the land, including the Upper West Side,” I wrote to a friend the other day. A week before the election, everyone seems to be afraid.

    Not that we’re afraid of the same things. Newspaper owners and corporate leaders fear Donald Trump’s retribution if they endorse Kamala Harris. Election workers fear the mob. Democrats fear losing votes because of the carnage in the Gaza Strip. Trump’s followers fear immigrants.

    Walled up in our silos, we fear what the people in the other silo might inflict on us. The frightening visions have different names and faces, but everyone seems to fear the future.

    Halloween’s ghoulish displays seem to have generated more sales than ever this year, inflation be damned. What with school shootings, random violence and a general atmosphere of threats, one would think we didn’t need to scare ourselves more.

    But as psychologist Sarah Kollat has recently written, Halloween thrills and chills can feel warming and reassuring. People who have survived a frightening shared ordeal, be it a hurricane or flood or fire or war or even, apparently, a haunted house, feel significantly connected to those who have experienced the same fearful event alongside them.

    Our fear can bring us together. It can also tear us apart.

    Halloween provides the language to talk about threats, real or imagined. “The zombies have arrived, and we have to figure out how to navigate around them,” a citizen of a Vermont town was recently quoted as saying. She was talking about homeless people.

    ‘Treachery, Rage and black Fear’

    It’s both easy and helpful to personify fear as something outside of us – to give it, in Shakespeare’s phrase, “a local habitation and a name.”

    Fear looms and fades; visits at night; thrives in certain conditions. In his epic “The Aeneid,” the Roman poet Virgil describes the war god, Mars, as accompanied by his posse: “the god’s retainers – Treachery, Rage, and black Fear – pound beside him.”

    This nightmare troika has a contemporary ring. If by treachery we understand traps, tricks, ambushes, we can plug in political debate, rife with accusations of mendacity; tricks and rage also characterize a good deal of public discourse. And isn’t anger the opposite side of the coin of fear?

    Virgil, a great psychologist of many kinds of unease, also depicts a less aggressive manifestation of fear: “Up on the wall stood frightened mothers, gazing/After the dust cloud and the bronze-bright squadrons.” Uneasy spectators, helpless to protect their loved ones, they watch their sons marching to war. In a similar passage, “mothers, the unarmed commons,/And weak old men came pouring out to fill/Towers and roofs.”

    Those of us not on a battlefield are in a position of tense watching and waiting.

    We feel powerless to affect the outcome; the stakes are high; we fear the worst.

    Love and heroism in short supply

    Fear is linked to love. In Homer’s “Iliad,” Achilles is reluctant to fight for the Greek side not because he’s afraid of death, even though he knows his life may be short. Rather, he’s too angry to sacrifice his life for a cause and commanders he no longer believes in – until his beloved Patroklos is killed by Hector. Only then do Achilles’ mood and motivation change; he eagerly rejoins the fight.

    Characters in Greek tragedies can make terrible decisions, be subject to madness, destroy themselves and others – but they are rarely afraid. The fear and pity Aristotle ascribes to tragedy are the emotions of the spectator.

    In connection with fear, one of the only characters in Greek tragedy who readily comes to mind is Admetus, the husband of Alcestis in Euripides’ play of that name. Informed that he is fated to die, Admetus scrambles frantically for a substitute to die in his place. His own father huffily refuses, but his wife Alcestis volunteers.

    When at the end of the play a veiled, silent figure we presume to be Alcestis reappears, there’s relief, as well as some nervous laughter. This play, with its – sort of – happy ending, turns out not to be a tragedy after all. It’s closer to dark comedy.

    In our own time, rather than fear of death, fear of loss looms large – fear of isolation, humiliation, status; fear of poverty; fear of change. Elsewhere in “the Aeneid,” a character in the underworld makes a resonant remark about the afterlife: “Each bears his own ghosts.”

    Maybe each of us has our own flavor of fear. There’s not much love or heroism in evidence these Halloween and preelection days. Anger and treachery, fear’s companions, are on daily display.

    Rachel Hadas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘Each bears his own ghosts’: How the classics speak to these days of fear, anger and presidential candidates stalking the land – https://theconversation.com/each-bears-his-own-ghosts-how-the-classics-speak-to-these-days-of-fear-anger-and-presidential-candidates-stalking-the-land-242286

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Slow vote-counting, flip-flopping leads, careful certification and the weirdness of the Electoral College – people who research elections look at what to expect on election night

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jeff Inglis, Politics + Society Editor, The Conversation US

    What should you make of the flood of information about the election? Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock / Getty Images Plus

    As Election Day arrives, people’s feelings of eagerness and anxiety can intensify. It’s normal to want to know the results, but it’s also important to make sure that when the results are announced, they’re accurate.

    The Conversation U.S. has covered many aspects of the election, including the mechanics of tallying and reporting the votes. Here are selections from some of those articles:

    1. How long did it take to count votes in 2020?

    In 2020, Election Day was Nov. 3. While some results emerged that evening and over the subsequent days, it was not until four days later, Nov. 7, that The Associated Press called the race for Joe Biden over Donald Trump.

    Waiting can be unsatisfying, wrote John M. Murphy, a communications scholar at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, but it’s key to getting accurate results.

    Murphy warned: “People tend to see what they want to see. … Partisans want that beautiful picture of triumph, blue or red seas cascading across screens on election night.” But, he observed, that might be a mirage – and realizing it’s a mirage means one thing: “Wait. … Wait until we know it’s real.”



    Read more:
    A new president will be elected − but it may take some time to determine who wins

    Election officials count ballots at the Allegheny County elections warehouse in Pittsburgh in 2020.
    Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

    2. Why do candidates’ leads change as the results emerge?

    Every state counts votes slightly differently. Some, like Colorado, allow election workers to begin counting absentee ballots in advance of Election Day, while in other states, like Illinois, the count can’t even start until the polling places close at the end of Election Day.

    In addition, various communities report their results in different ways. Some may release preliminary results every so often while the counting continues, while others may wait until counting is fully complete before announcing any results.

    That’s why vote counts change over time: Partial results are updated, and additional results are added to statewide tallies. In a 2020 article, Kristin Kanthak, a political science professor at the University of Pittsburgh, went through the whole process, including the release of partial results:

    “Importantly … this doesn’t mean the system is ‘rigged.’ Actually, it means the system is transparent to a fault,” she wrote.



    Read more:
    How votes are counted in Pennsylvania: Changing numbers are a sign of transparency, not fraud, during an ongoing process

    3. How do we know the results are accurate?

    Election officials take their jobs very seriously and work hard to count all the eligible votes accurately while under great pressure. They have specific rules and processes for how to handle ballots and vote-counting.

    Derek Muller, an election-law scholar at the University of Notre Dame, explained those steps in detail, highlighting the focus on verifiable facts rather than people’s opinions about the process:

    “Certifying an election is a rather mundane task. … It is little more than making sure all precincts have reported and the arithmetic is correct. But it is an important task, because it is the formal process that determines who won the most votes.”



    Read more:
    No, local election officials can’t block certification of results — there are plenty of legal safeguards

    Washoe County employees in Nevada open ballots as they begin processing mailed ballots in the 2024 primary election.
    AP Photo/Andy Barron

    4. Who invented the Electoral College?

    Of course, the candidate who gets the most votes doesn’t necessarily win the presidency. The official decision is made by the Electoral College.

    Phillip VanFossen, a civics educator at Purdue University, explained that the Constitutional Convention in the summer of 1787 came up with three ideas, but couldn’t agree. Determined to find common ground, even if it was imperfect, the delegates told 11 men to come up with a solution, which was the Electoral College.

    VanFossen explained that “with this compromise system, neither public ignorance nor outside influence would affect the choice of a nation’s leader. (The delegates) believed that the electors would ensure that only a qualified person became president. And they thought the Electoral College would serve as a check on a public who might be easily misled, especially by foreign governments.”



    Read more:
    Who invented the Electoral College?

    5. Why does the US still have an Electoral College?

    Other nations were inspired by the U.S. Constitution, but not for long, as Westminster College political scientist Joshua Holzer explained:

    “None have been satisfied with the results. And except for the U.S., all have found other ways to choose their leaders.”

    Many people in the U.S. also aren’t satisfied with the Electoral College, and Holzer identifies one effort under way to replace it without amending the Constitution. But even that won’t ensure that the person who becomes president is supported by at least half of the people who cast ballots.



    Read more:
    No country still uses an electoral college − except the US

    – ref. Slow vote-counting, flip-flopping leads, careful certification and the weirdness of the Electoral College – people who research elections look at what to expect on election night – https://theconversation.com/slow-vote-counting-flip-flopping-leads-careful-certification-and-the-weirdness-of-the-electoral-college-people-who-research-elections-look-at-what-to-expect-on-election-night-241340

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Moogai could have been a powerful Indigenous horror film – but gets flattened by its own weight

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ali Alizadeh, Senior Lecturer in Literary Studies and Creative Writing, Monash University

    Elise Lockwood

    Isn’t raising one’s child supposed to be full of joy and laughter? Apparently not, according to the horror genre.

    Consider Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein (1818), one of the earliest and most famous horror novels ever written. It follows a father-like character who creates a child-like progeny, and the former’s failure to love the latter turns the nameless creature into a “monster” in more ways than one.

    Australia is a noteworthy contributor to the sub-genre of parental horror. The Babadook (2014), Relic (2020) and Lake Mungo (2008) are just some Aussie horror films that feature terrified (or terrifying) mums and dads.

    The first half of Jon Bell’s The Moogai made me think it could be in the running for the title of Ultimate Aussie Horror Flick. It is a certifiably Australian horror film. It is also one of very few Indigenous-directed horror films, alongside Tracey Moffatt’s 1993 experimental triptych beDevil.

    Bell’s past credits include work in horror’s sister genre, sci-fi, including for co-writing the script of the acclaimed TV series Cleverman. As with this show, his directorial debut feature fuses a figure from Indigenous spiritual traditions with the modern genre conventions.

    The Moogai is a bad spirit from Indigenous lore that is known to steal children.
    Elise Lockwood

    Being followed by a bad spirit

    The titular figure at the centre of The Moogai is a “bad spirit” from Indigenous lore – “something akin to the boogie man,” Bell said in an interview.

    We first encounter the Moogai – or at least become aware of his ominous presence – in the film’s introductory sequence which recalls the trauma of the forced removals of the Stolen Generations.

    In these scenes, set in 1970, an Indigenous girl runs into a cave in a rural setting to hide from government agents. She and the audience soon realise something very threatening already resides in the cave.

    We hear some heavy breathing, a growl, the girl’s scream and then … cut to 2024, to a posh corporate function in the city, where a bottle of champagne is being uncorked. It’s a terrifically startling cut, and Bell’s incisive use of montage throughout the film is just one facet of his skills as a highly visual filmmaker.

    In one of the most wonderfully disturbing scenes, the protagonist Sarah (Shari Sebbens), not long after having given birth to her second child, cracks open an egg in the kitchen to make breakfast. Inside is a bloody chicken embryo. Unsettled, Sarah throws the egg’s contents in the kitchen sink, but the glistening embryo is alive; it opens its beak and pecks at her fingers.

    This scene of fertility gore succinctly and excellently conveys the film’s central source of horror. Sarah, a successful corporate lawyer, has a Lazarus moment while giving birth. During a brief otherworldly sojourn, the Moogai enters her life to do what the Moogai apparently are known to do: steal children.

    Soon, Sarah’s petrified daughter Chloe (Jahdeana Mary) is mumbling about having seen “that man with the long arms”. Sarah’s estranged biological mother, Ruth (played by a forceful and fascinating Tessa Rose), counsels Chloe: “you look out for that Moogai, baby girl.”

    Shari Sebbens plays the main character, Sarah.
    Elise Lockwood

    Bloodless and thematically heavy

    There’s a clear allegorical, or perhaps metaphorical, association between the demonic entity in The Moogai and the lurid racial policies of Australian governments with regards to the Indigenous. At the same time, the film is careful not to overstate or oversimplify its figurative qualities.

    Sarah is, to be sure, an Indigenous woman fearing for the safety of her children, but she’s not a simple or stereotypical victim. She’s proudly bourgeois, supremely self-important and unabashedly horrible towards those who earn less money than her, including the long-suffering Ruth.

    The Moogai is as much about class – and the horror wealthy folk have of things not always going their way – as it is about maternity, Indigeneity, mental illness and intergenerational conflict.

    It is perhaps due to the these hefty topics that the film starts to become, as it were, somewhat weighty in its second half. While it maintains a degree of dread and includes a few scary moments, its interest in horror recedes. There are, much to my sadness, no scenes of blood and gore – not even when the minor character Ray Boy (Clarence Ryan) is primed to get mauled by the Moogai.

    The Moogai touches on a range of weighty topics from Indigeneity to intergenerational conflict.
    Elise Lockwood

    A toned-down approach to horror

    The final confrontation between the three generations of women and their ghostly tormentor strikes me as something from a fantasy or superhero movie. It seems, for whatever reason, the filmmakers decided to tone down the horror and opt for a restrained offering with an exceedingly positive and heart-warming ending.

    This is a shame, really. If The Moogai had embraced the genre’s darker, more shocking aesthetics, it could have easily earned its place not only alongside recent Australian instant classics such as Talk to Me (2022), but also the year’s best horror films such as The Substance. But it has ultimately settled for a fairly bloodless tale of parental paranoia and cultural dissociation.

    I’m confident viewers who appreciate serious movies with serious themes would approve of the film’s second half. But would these folk deign to see anything that resembles “horror” to begin with?

    Here’s hoping the indisputably talented Jon Bell will continue to work in the genre – and engage with it more wholeheartedly in the future.

    Bell’s directorial debut falls short of embracing the darker side of the horror genre.
    Elise Lockwood

    The Moogai is out in cinemas from October 31.

    Ali Alizadeh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The Moogai could have been a powerful Indigenous horror film – but gets flattened by its own weight – https://theconversation.com/the-moogai-could-have-been-a-powerful-indigenous-horror-film-but-gets-flattened-by-its-own-weight-241250

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What are Veblen and Giffen goods?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By María Yanotti, Lecturer of Economics and Finance Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania

    photo-lime/Shutterstock

    This article is part of The Conversation’s “Business Basics” series where we ask experts to discuss key concepts in business, economics and finance.

    In economics, goods and services can be classified in different ways. You might be surprised to realise you already knew this, even without knowing their classification names.

    Most goods and services are what we call normal goods. Normal goods are those that you purchase more of as your income increases.

    For example, you might put healthier and more nutritious food in your trolley, buy more shoes and clothes, or spend more on outings at restaurants and events.

    Normal goods still abide to what’s called the law of demand, which might feel like common sense: as the price of something goes up, the quantity of or frequency with which it is demanded will fall.

    But there are some categories that violate our intuitions around supply and demand. And they do so for very different reasons. Meet Veblen and Giffen goods, the products that “break the rules”.



    Read more:
    What’s inflation – and how exactly do we measure it?

    Needs and wants

    Normal goods can be further divided into two types: necessity goods and luxury goods.

    Most groceries are an example of necessity goods.
    No Revisions/Unsplash

    Broadly speaking, necessity goods are all those things we require for everyday life – food, housing, electricity and so on.

    Luxury goods, on the other hand, are the those things we don’t necessarily need but are nice to have. Luxury houses, fancier cars, more expensive clothes and so on.

    We become more able to afford luxury goods as we earn more. But as a result, they are also the first things we tend to cut when our income tightens.

    For most of these products, something called the “law of demand” applies. That is, if their price increases, people buy less of them than they did before. Demand for them shrinks.

    However, some types of good defy this “natural” principle.

    Symbols of status and wealth

    The first type are Veblen goods, named after American economist Thorstein Veblen. Sometimes they’re also called “snob” goods.

    When these goods go up in price, demand for them actually increases.

    Clear examples of Veblen goods are some forms of art, high-end designer clothes, exclusive cars and watches. The more expensive the good is, the more exclusive it is, and the more the consumers (who are attracted to it) want to purchase it.

    It all centres on signalling status. Being seen to be able to purchase them can indicate someone has exquisite taste, or lots of money to spend.

    Most times, Veblen goods are an example of what economists call “positional” goods. These are goods that are valued according to how they are distributed among people, and who exactly has them.

    The satisfaction of purchasing a Veblen good comes from the sense of having it and being able to show it off, not necessarily from how useful it is.

    The value of Veblen goods is driven by their artificial scarcity – they’re deliberately hard for people to acquire.
    Andrea Natali/Unsplash

    Inferior goods

    On the opposite side of normal goods are inferior goods. As our income increases, we tend to consume less of these goods.

    Think, for example, of two-minute noodles or the bus service.

    As your income increases, you may be able to afford more nutritious and healthier food and stop consuming cheaper food. You may be able to purchase a car or a bike and stop using public transport.

    But within inferior goods, one rare kind offers another exception to the law of demand – Giffen goods.

    Why does a rise in price cause demand to go up? Because for people on limited incomes, this limits their ability to buy substitutes.

    Take examples such as wheat, rice, potatoes, or bread. If the price of any of these goes up, a consumer on low income may have less to spend on higher quality goods like meat and fresh vegetables, increasing their demand for the inferior good.



    Read more:
    What is competition, and why is it so important for prices?

    María Yanotti receives funding from AHURI. She is affiliated with the Economic Society of Australia, and the Women in Economics Network.

    – ref. What are Veblen and Giffen goods? – https://theconversation.com/what-are-veblen-and-giffen-goods-241799

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How do children learn good manners?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sophia Waters, Senior Lecturer in Writing, University of New England

    Pexels/Anna Shvets

    Ensuring kids have manners is a perennial preoccupation for parents and caregivers.

    How, then, do you teach good manners to children?

    Modelling good manners around the home and in your own interaction with others is obviously crucial.

    But there’s a clear uniting theme when it comes to manners in Australia: in Australian English, good manners centre on honouring personal autonomy, egalitarianism and not appearing to tell people what to do.

    Which manners matter most in Australia?

    Some of the most important manners in Australian English are behavioural edicts that focus on particular speech acts: greeting, requesting, thanking and apologising.

    These speech acts have a set of words associated with them:

    • hello
    • hi
    • may I please…?
    • could I please…?
    • thank you
    • ta
    • sorry
    • excuse me.

    Good manners make people feel comfortable in social situations by adding predictability and reassurance.

    They can act as signposts in interactions. Anglo cultures place a lot of weight on egalitarianism, personal autonomy and ensuring we don’t tell people what to do.

    If you want to get someone to do something for you – pass you a pen, for example – you frame the request as a question to signal that you’re not telling them what to do.

    You’ll also add one of the main characters in Anglo politeness: the magic word, “please”.

    This framing recognises you don’t expect or demand compliance. You’re acknowledging the other person as an autonomous individual who can do what they want.

    If the person does the thing you’ve asked, the next step is to say “thank you” to recognise the other person’s autonomy. You’re acknowledging they didn’t have to help just because you asked.

    ‘Say ta!’
    DGLimages/Shutterstock

    The heavy hitters

    The words “please” and “thank you” are such heavy hitters in Australian English good manners, they’re two of the words that language learners and migrants learn first.

    They can help soften the impact of your words. Think, for example, of the difference between “no” and “no, thank you”.

    Of course, there are times when “no” is a full sentence. But what if someone offered you a cup of tea and you replied “no” without its concomitant “thank you” to soften your rejection and acknowledge this offer didn’t have to be made? Don’t be surprised if they think you sound a bit rude.

    The other big players in Australian English good manners are “sorry” and “excuse me”. Much like in British English, the Australian “sorry” means many things.

    These can preface an intrusion on someone’s personal space, like before squeezing past someone in the cinema, or on someone’s speaking turn.

    Interrupting or talking over someone else is often heavily frowned on in Australian English because it is often interpreted as disregarding what the other person has to say.

    But in some cultures, such as French, this conversational style is actively encouraged. And some languages and cultures have different conventions around what good manners look like around strangers versus with family.

    Good manners involve saying certain words in predictable contexts.

    But knowing what these are and when to use them demonstrates a deeper cultural awareness of what behaviours are valued.

    Talking over someone else is often heavily frowned on in Australian English.
    MDV Edwards/Shutterstock

    How do children learn manners?

    As part of my research, I’ve analysed parenting forum posts about “good manners”. Some believe good manners should be effortless; one parent said:

    Good manners shouldn’t be something that a child has to think about […] teach them correctly at home from day one, manners become an integral part of the way they view things.

    Another forum user posited good modelling was the key, saying:

    the parent has to lead by example, rather than forcing a child to say one or the other.

    One study, which involved analysis of more than 20 hours of videorecorded family dinner interactions collected in Italy, found mealtimes are also sites where parents control their children’s conduct “through the micro-politics of good manners.”

    By participating in mealtime interactions, children witness and have the chance to acquire the specific cultural principles governing bodily conduct at the table, such as ‘sitting properly’, ‘eating with cutlery’, and ‘chewing with mouth closed’.

    Yet, they are also socialised to a foundational principle of human sociality: one’s own behavior must be self-monitored according to the perspective of the generalised Other.

    In Australian English, that means regulating your behaviour to make sure you don’t do something that could be seen as “rude”. As I argued in a 2012 paper:

    While child socialisation in Anglo culture involves heavy discouragement of rudeness, French does not have a direct equivalent feature […] French children are taught ça ne se fait pas, ‘that is not done’. Where the French proscribe the behaviours outright, the Anglos […] appeal to the image one has of oneself in interpersonal interactions.

    In Anglo English, the penalties for breaches could be other people’s disapproval and hurting their feelings.

    Good manners form part of the bedrock for human sociality.
    Shutterstock

    Why are good manners important?

    Good manners affect our interactions with others and help us build positive relationships.

    Fourteenth century English bishop and educator, William of Wykeham, declared that “manners maketh the man”.

    John Hopkins University Professor Pier Forni called them a “precious life-improvement tool.”

    The “Good Manners” chart, based on a set of rules devised by the Children’s National guild of Courtesy in UK primary schools in 1889, was issued to Queensland primary schools until the 1960s.

    It tells kids to remember the golden rule to “always do to others as you would wish them to do to you if you were in their place.”

    Good manners form part of the bedrock for human sociality. Childhood is when we give kids foundational training on interacting with others and help them learn how to be a culturally competent member of a society.

    Sophia Waters does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How do children learn good manners? – https://theconversation.com/how-do-children-learn-good-manners-237133

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: State of the Climate 2024: Australia is enduring harsher fire seasons, more ocean heatwaves and sea-level rise

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Neil Sims, Senior Research Scientist, CSIRO

    ArliftAtoz2205, Shutterstock

    Worldwide, greenhouse gas emissions are still increasing, and temperatures are rising across land and sea.

    But what is climate change doing to Australia, the driest inhabited continent? The latest CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology State of the Climate Report report highlights that Australia’s climate is continuing to warm.

    Extreme fire weather is increasing. Sea levels are rising. Marine heatwaves are becoming more intense and frequent. And oceans are getting more acidic. All of these come with serious consequences for Australia’s environment and communities.

    Australia’s land is already 1.5°C hotter

    On land, Australia has warmed by an average of 1.51°C since 1910. Our oceans have heated up by 1.08°C on average since 1900.

    This doesn’t mean we’ve breached the Paris Agreement goal of holding climate change to 1.5°C or less, because this goal is based on the long-term average of both land and ocean temperatures. But Australia’s land and seas are now at record levels of heat.

    Globally, 2023 was the hottest year on record – so far. But Australia’s warmest recorded year was 2019.

    Why the difference? Between 2020 and early 2023, three consecutive La Niña events have kept Australia wetter and cooler than during most of the past decade, leading to fewer heat extremes than in 2019. Even so, these years were still warmer than most years before 2000.

    As Australia keeps warming, extreme heat events will become more frequent and more extreme. Extreme heatwaves cause more deaths in Australia than any other natural hazard , peaking at 830 heat-related deaths during Australia’s hottest year in 2019.

    More heat waves, longer fire seasons

    Australia is notoriously fire prone. But fires differ hugely, from low-intensity grassfires through to enormous bushfires that consume forests. When extreme fire weather arrives – hot, dry and windy – small fires can turn large very quickly.

    Extreme fire weather is more frequent and more intense than in previous decades. Hotter conditions dry out grass and leaf litter, producing more fuel for fire. This has led to larger and more frequent forest fires, especially in the southeast of Australia over the past 30 years. Dangerous fire weather will be more common in the future, and the fire seasons will continue to lengthen.

    In extreme fire years such as the Black Summer of 2019-20, when large areas of Australia’s east coast burned, carbon dioxide emissions from bushfires and prescribed burns can actually outweigh Australia’s total emissions that year. However, these emissions are offset in large part when trees and shrubs regrow.

    Drier in the south, wetter in the north

    Climate change is driving a major divergence in where rain falls in Australia.

    In northern Australia, average wet-season rainfall is now about 20% higher than 30 years ago.

    But in southwestern Australia, rainfall in the cooler, growing-season months has declined 16%, and in the southeast by 9% in recent decades.

    More rain in these regions now falls in heavy, short-lived rainfall events.

    These changes are also reflected in our rivers, with significantly lower flows for about one third of the gauges in the south. Australia-wide, only 4% of our river gauges are measuring increased flows, and almost all of these are in the north.

    Flows are declining in most rivers in Australia’s south due in part to reduced rainfall, while most rivers in the north are seeing increased flows linked to higher rainfall. This map shows trends in annual median streamflow from available river gauge data in the 1970−2023 period.
    CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

    Hotter oceans, rising seas

    Almost all (90%) of the extra heat trapped by greenhouse gases has gone into the oceans. Oceans are getting rapidly hotter. This matters because ocean heat strongly influences weather patterns in Australia.

    Australia’s oceans are warming faster than the global average. But the oceans off south-east Australia and the Tasman Sea are a particular hotspot and are now warming at twice the global average.

    As the seas warm, they expand. This thermal expansion is one of the main contributors to rising sea levels. Around Australia, sea levels have risen 22 centimetres since 1900 – with half of that since 1970.

    More emissions equals more heat

    Avoiding the worst damage from climate change is conceptually simple and unequivocal: rapidly reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will help Australia meet its net zero 2050 target.

    Tasmania’s northwest tip has some of the cleanest air in the world, which is why it was chosen to host the Kennaook/Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station. For 48 years, this station has been recording concentrations of greenhouse gases. The picture it captures is stark.

    Carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations are now about 51% higher than pre-industrial levels, while concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide, both strong greenhouse gases, continue to increase. Their rate of atmospheric accumulation has rapidly increased in recent years even as some regions and some sources have begun to see emissions slow or even decline, such as reduced CO₂ emissions from land clearing, globally and in Australia.

    Global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel use have been increasing since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, and increased by 1.1% from 2022 to 2023, reaching the highest annual level ever recorded.

    The warming has led to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events over land and in the oceans.
    Leah-Anne Thompson, Shutterstock

    Australia’s carbon contribution

    This year, the State of the Climate report for the first time quantifies Australia’s major human and natural carbon sources and sinks and how they contribute to global CO₂ levels.

    It shows the average annual carbon content embedded in Australia’s fossil fuel exports between 2010 and 2019 (1,055 megatonnes) was more than double the average annual national carbon emissions over the same period (455 Mt). However, the emissions of these carbon exports are accounted in the countries where the fossil fuels are used.

    It also demonstrates the importance of maintaining the integrity of our natural land ecosystems. Ecosystems are Australia’s most important carbon sinks, but their effectiveness as sinks depends on factors including the future evolution of the climate and how it will affect rainfall and wildfire regimes.

    Australia’s Carbon Budget 2010-2019. A product of the National Environmental Science Program – Climate Systems Hub; and a contribution to the Global Carbon Project – Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes-2.
    Source: NESP-2

    What lies ahead for Australia?

    Australia’s warming is expected to continue, which will lead to more extreme heat events, lower rainfall in some regions, and longer droughts.

    We can expect to see more intense rainfall events, even in regions where average rainfall falls or stays the same.

    Sudden intense rains make flooding more likely, especially in urban areas where concrete and tarmac prevent the ground from soaking up excess water and in low-lying coastal areas where rising sea levels amplify damage from other climate hazards.

    Climate change is already here. Through multiple lines of data and evidence, we have tracked what it is doing to make Australia hotter, more prone to floods and fires, and cutting river flows in the south where most of us live.

    If warming continues, these trends will get worse over time. Understanding these changes and the impacts to Australia will help manage climate risk, now and in the decades to come.

    Blair Trewin, Senior Research Scientist at the Bureau of Meteorology, contributed to this article

    Pep Canadell receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program – Climate Systems Hub

    Neil Sims does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. State of the Climate 2024: Australia is enduring harsher fire seasons, more ocean heatwaves and sea-level rise – https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-climate-2024-australia-is-enduring-harsher-fire-seasons-more-ocean-heatwaves-and-sea-level-rise-242191

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Earth’s climate will keep changing long after humanity hits net-zero emissions. Our research shows why

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew King, Senior Lecturer in Climate Science, The University of Melbourne

    Shutterstock

    The world is striving to reach net-zero emissions as we try to ward off dangerous global warming. But will getting to net-zero actually avert climate instability, as many assume?

    Our new study examined that question. Alarmingly, we found reaching net-zero in the next few decades will not bring an immediate end to the global heating problem. Earth’s climate will change for many centuries to come.

    And this continuing climate change will not be evenly spread. Australia would keep warming more than almost any other land area. For example if net-zero emissions are reached by 2060, the Australian city of Melbourne is still predicted to warm by 1°C after that point.

    But that’s not to say the world shouldn’t push to reach net-zero emissions as quickly as possible. The sooner we get there, the less damaging change the planet will experience in the long run.

    New research examines if climate change will stop once the world reaches net-zero emissions.
    Shutterstock

    Reaching net-zero is vital

    Global greenhouse gas emissions hit record highs in 2023. At the same time, Earth experienced its hottest year.

    Analysis suggests emissions may peak in the next couple of years then start to fall. But as long as emissions remain substantial, the planet will keep warming.

    Most of the world’s nations, including Australia, have signed up to the Paris climate agreement. The deal aims to keep global warming well below 2°C, and requires major emitters to reach net-zero as soon as possible. Australia, along with many other nations, is aiming to reach the goal by 2050.

    Getting to net-zero essentially means nations must reduce human-caused greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible, and compensate for remaining emissions by removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere elsewhere. Methods for doing this include planting additional vegetation to draw down and store carbon, or using technology to suck carbon out of the air.

    Getting to net-zero is widely considered the point at which global warming will stop. But is that assumption correct? And does it mean warming would stop everywhere across the planet? Our research sought to find out.

    Centuries of change

    Computer models simulating Earth’s climate under different scenarios are an important tool for climate scientists. Our research used a model known as the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator.

    Such models are like lab experiments for climate scientists to test ideas. Models are fed with information about greenhouse gas emissions. They then use equations to predict how those emissions would affect the movement of air and the ocean, and the transfer of carbon and heat, across Earth over time.

    We wanted to see what would happen once the world hit net-zero carbon dioxide at various points in time, and maintained it for 1,000 years.

    We ran seven simulations from different start points in the 21st century, at five-year increments from 2030 to 2060. These staggered simulations allowed us to measure the effect of various delays in reaching net-zero.

    We found Earth’s climate would continue to evolve under all simulations, even if net-zero emissions was maintained for 1,000 years. But importantly, the later net-zero is reached, the larger the climate changes Earth would experience.

    Warming oceans and melting ice

    Earth’s average temperature across land and sea is the main indicator of climate change. So we looked at that first.

    We found this temperature would continue to rise slowly under net-zero emissions – albeit at a much slower rate than we see today. Most warming would take place on the ocean surface; average temperature on land would only change a little.

    We also looked at temperatures below the ocean surface. There, the ocean would warm strongly even under net-zero emissions – and this continues for many centuries. This is because seawater absorbs a lot of energy before warming up, which means some ocean warming is inevitable even after emissions fall.

    Over the last few decades of high greenhouse gas emissions, sea ice extent fell in the Arctic – and more recently, around Antarctica. Under net-zero emissions, we anticipate Arctic sea ice extent would stabilise but not recover.

    In contrast, Antarctic sea ice extent is projected to fall under net-zero emissions for many centuries. This is associated with continued slow warming of the Southern Ocean around Antarctica.

    Importantly, we found long-term impacts on the climate worsen the later we reach net-zero emissions. Even just a five-year delay would affect on the projected climate 1,000 years later.

    Delaying net-zero by five years results in a higher global average surface temperature, a much warmer ocean and reduced sea ice extent for many centuries.

    Australia’s evolving climate

    The effect on the climate of reaching net-zero emissions differs across the world.

    For example, Australia is close to the Southern Ocean, which is projected to continue warming for many centuries even under net-zero emissions. This warming to Australia’s south means even under a net-zero emissions pathway, we expect the continent to continue to warm more than almost all other land areas on Earth.

    For example, the models predict Melbourne would experience 1°C of warming over centuries if net-zero was reached in 2060.

    Spell out GMST (global mean surface temperature?) in chart? Is listed as global average in caption??

    Net-zero would also lead to changes in rainfall in Australia. Winter rainfall across the continent would increase – a trend in contrast to drying currently underway in parts of Australia, particularly in the southwest and southeast.

    Knowns and unknowns

    There is much more to discover about how the climate might behave under net-zero.

    But our analysis provides some clues about what climate changes to expect if humanity struggles to achieve large-scale “net-negative” emissions – that is, removing carbon from the atmosphere at a greater rate than it is emitted.

    Experiments with more models will help improve scientists’ understanding of climate change beyond net-zero emissions. These simulations may include scenarios in which carbon removal methods are so successful, Earth actually cools and some climate changes are reversed.

    Despite the unknowns, one thing is very clear: there is a pressing need to push for net-zero emissions as fast as possible.

    Andrew King receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and the National Environmental Science Program.

    Tilo Ziehn receives funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and the National Environmental Science Program.

    – ref. Earth’s climate will keep changing long after humanity hits net-zero emissions. Our research shows why – https://theconversation.com/earths-climate-will-keep-changing-long-after-humanity-hits-net-zero-emissions-our-research-shows-why-241692

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 215 million hectares of forest – an area bigger than Mexico – could grow back by itself, if we can just leave it alone

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brooke Williams, Research Fellow, School of Biology & Environmental Science, Queensland University of Technology

    Gustavo Frazao/Shutterstock

    About 215 million hectares of land – an area bigger than Mexico – could be reforested naturally and without costly manual planting, our new research shows.

    This would allow us to offset around 23.4 gigatonnes of global carbon emissions over the next three decades. That’s about 50 years worth of Australia’s carbon emissions (assuming 2023 emission rates continue).

    Extensive and effective forest restoration is crucial to mitigating climate change and conserving biodiversity.

    It’s vital we find cost-effective ways to get and keep more trees in the ground. One way to do this is just to let forests grow back by themselves. However, this isn’t possible in all deforested lands, as certain environmental conditions are needed for this approach to work.

    Our research identified land where this approach had strong potential.

    Allowing forests to grow back naturally in deforested areas, such as this degraded land in Brazil, could be more cost-effective than manual reforestation projects.
    Author provided

    The benefits of natural regeneration

    Globally, 65% of original tropical forest extent has been lost to make way for human development such as agriculture, roads, and urbanisation. Deforestation has contributed to climate change and biodiversity loss.

    We’ve also lost a worrying amount of what researchers call “ecosystem services”, meaning the benefits people derive from nature, such as clean water.

    Forest restoration is an important strategy for reversing the damage.

    Our paper, published in the journal Nature, looked at where natural regeneration is likely to be successful due to the surrounding environmental conditions.

    Natural regeneration is important because it is sometimes better than manual tree planting, which includes the costs of saplings, manual labour, fertilisation and maintenance.

    Using manual techniques in degraded landscapes can be expensive. It can also be less effective in terms of native biodiversity recovery and keeping water systems functioning well.

    Natural regeneration is a less costly alternative. That means allowing forests to grow back on their own or with carefully planned human intervention.

    For example, natural reforestation may cost between $US12 and $3,880 per hectare. By contrast, active regeneration methods in the tropics would cost between $105 and $25,830 per hectare.

    Natural regeneration restoration methods often have better long-term success and biodiversity outcomes than full manual tree-planting.

    Studies have found that biodiversity “success” – meaning richer biodiversity and more species – can be up to 56% higher when natural regeneration approaches were used (rather than manual planting projects).

    It’s vital we find cost-effective ways to get and keep more trees in the ground.
    Richard Whitcombe/Shutterstock

    Where might natural reforestation projects succeed?

    Until now, it’s not always been clear how to predict areas where natural regeneration is most likely to occur. That’s made it hard to do large-scale natural regeneration projects.

    Our research addresses this gap. We identified the best areas to roll out natural approaches in the tropics.

    We focused on tropical forested regions because they are particularly important.

    Their biodiversity is unparalleled and they provide vast economic, cultural, and recreational services to people.

    They also grow much faster than other forest types, and many large tropical forests have already been cleared and degraded.

    Factors that make a forest likely to regenerate naturally include:

    • the amount of surrounding forest
    • distance to existing forest and
    • soil organic carbon content

    This suggests areas with higher levels of landscape degradation and intensive land uses would be less likely to regenerate naturally.

    We found suitable environmental conditions for natural regeneration occur across:

    • 98 million hectares in the Neotropics (which includes many areas in South and Central America)

    • 90 million hectares in the Indomalayan tropics (which includes many areas in Southeast Asia, Malaysia, and India)

    • 25.5 million hectares in the continent of Africa

    Up to 52% of this natural regeneration could occur in just five countries: Brazil, Indonesia, China, Mexico, and Colombia.

    This suggests these countries would be excellent candidates for large scale natural regeneration projects.

    We also found that 29 other countries have at least one million hectares each that could be naturally reforested.

    We identified 400,000 hectares of deforested lands with potential for natural forest regeneration in the Australian tropics.

    Fixing forests will also improve biodiversity.
    Martin Prochazkacz/Shutterstock

    The world has committed to fixing forests

    The world has committed to ambitious forest restoration targets in order to substantially increase the area of forest ecosystems by 2050.

    These commitments include the Bonn Challenge, which aims to restore 350 million hectares by 2030.

    Another is Target 2 of the recently adopted Global Biodiversity Framework, which calls for 30% of the area of degraded ecosystems to be restored by 2030.

    Achieving these targets, especially for nations with emerging economies, will not be possible using active restoration techniques alone. This due to cost and feasibility constraints.

    To assist with this global task, we have made our dataset publicly available and free to use.

    Local communities at the centre

    Encouraging natural regeneration remains a major challenge, particularly on privately held and communally managed land because it can mean reduced land available for other uses.

    Providing local people with training and support to grow, harvest and market products sourced from naturally regenerating forests is also crucial. This could help keep young naturally regenerating forests standing and growing.

    This income could supplement or replace payments landowners and local people currently receive to look after land and prevent it from being deforested. Payment-based approaches are not always sustainable in the long term.

    Currently, many forests are controlled and managed by central or national governments. Giving local and Indigenous communities control over their forests would help encourage restoration that meets local needs.

    However, this requires appropriate technical support and monitoring.

    Importantly, our analysis does not define where restoration activities should or should not occur. We only show where natural forest regeneration is possible or more likely to succeed.

    We echo calls to ensure restoration occurs as equitably as possible, and foregrounds the needs of local people.

    Forest restoration should be as equitable as possible, and foreground the needs of local people.
    WNDR Worlds/Shutterstock

    Let’s give it a chance

    Natural forest regeneration presents an opportunity to restore vast areas of forest cheaply and effectively. It can help mitigate the effects of climate change and help countries meet their emissions reduction targets.

    Other benefits include conserving biodiversity, regulating water resources, reducing erosion, and making ecosystems more resilient.

    Recognising the massive regeneration capacity of tropical forests is key.

    It’s also crucial it occurs alongside protecting intact forests, and reducing deforestation.

    Robin Chazdon is the global co-director of the Assisted Natural Regeneration Alliance. She is a senior fellow with the World Resources Institute’s Global Restoration Initiative.

    Brooke Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 215 million hectares of forest – an area bigger than Mexico – could grow back by itself, if we can just leave it alone – https://theconversation.com/215-million-hectares-of-forest-an-area-bigger-than-mexico-could-grow-back-by-itself-if-we-can-just-leave-it-alone-236696

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The UN warns famine is likely in Gaza. What do malnutrition and hunger do to the body?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Dix, Lecturer In Nutrition & Dietetics, University of the Sunshine Coast

    Anas-Mohammed/Shutterstock

    The risk of famine looms in Gaza. International monitors warn more than 90% of the population face acute food insecurity, meaning their inability to eat enough food puts them in immediate danger of starvation. The number experiencing “catastrophic” hunger is set to double in the coming months.

    Israel has been accused of deliberately blocking humanitarian aid, including food. In September, deliveries of food and aid to Gaza fell to their lowest in seven months after Israel introduced new customs rules.



    Read more:
    Gaza: weaponisation of food has been used in conflicts for centuries – but it hasn’t always resulted in victory

    The World Health Organization has repeatedly warned about the consequences of hunger and food insecurity in the region, including the impact on rising infection rates and increased child mortality.

    The scale of this humanitarian crisis could be overwhelming, as extreme hunger threatens to engulf an entire population – nearly half of which are children.

    What does hunger mean for people’s health – especially children – at the individual level? And will survivors be able to recover from the damage?

    Who is most at risk?

    Food shortages mean people not only eat less overall but can miss out on essential nutrients.

    This can lead to severe acute malnutrition. In children, this means measurable negative effects on bodily functions and growth, including weight and muscle loss.

    Some people will experience the effects of starvation more rapidly. Those most at risk have low stores of energy and protein, and/or higher nutritional needs for growth and development. They include the elderly, infants, children, and women who are pregnant or breastfeeding.

    Childhood nutrition is critical

    From a nutritional viewpoint, the first 1,000 days of life are a critical window for growth and development.

    During this time, the microbiome (the bacteria that live in our digestive system) develops and is influenced by external factors such as diet, and exposure to microbes and pollutants, which shape how the body and immune system function.

    Severe acute malnutrition has several short-term impacts. Malnourished children have reduced immunity, meaning they are less able to fight infections – such as E.coli – partly due to changes to their microbiome. This makes them more vulnerable to contaminated food and water.

    Bacterial infection is a leading cause of death for children with severe acute malnutrition.

    Israel has destroyed around two-thirds of Gaza’s water systems, according to UNICEF, forcing children to drink unsafe water and increasing their exposure to sewage and waterborne diseases.



    Read more:
    Polio in Gaza: what does this mean for the region and the world?

    Long-term impacts of malnutrition

    The effects of malnutrition and starvation during childhood continue into adulthood. Those who survive have a higher risk of developing chronic diseases, including diabetes, high blood pressure and metabolic syndrome (a cluster of conditions that can increase your risk for heart disease and stroke).

    Damage to the gut lining can also cause long-term inflammation. This may make it harder to absorb nutrients, increase the risk of bacterial imbalances, and stop the pancreas and liver working properly.

    Muscle loss and changes in electrolytes can also impact the heart, increasing the risk of arrhythmia (irregular heartbeat).

    What about the brain?

    Malnutrition can harm brain development in children. It can reduce brain size and slow growth, potentially impairing function and memory.

    Impacts on how the brain develops could affect cognition, behaviour and reduce academic achievement.

    More research is needed to understand how malnutrition during childhood affects mental health. But studies suggest it may be linked to personality disorders, attention deficits, lower self-esteem and reduced quality of life.

    For children in Gaza, these harms will likely be compounded by trauma and displacement.

    Impact during pregnancy

    Malnutrition can also affect the health of unborn babies. Famine and food shortages in Gaza mean pregnant women are not getting enough folate, iron, vitamin B12 and iodine. These nutrients are crucial to ensure their baby’s healthy delivery and reduce long-term health impacts.

    Nutritional deficiencies for the mother during pregnancy can increase the baby’s risk of clinical obesity, type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome.

    Although less well-studied, there is also evidence a father’s diet, health, sperm quantity and quality can have similar health impacts on their offspring.

    How is severe acute malnutrition treated?

    Severely malnourished people need nutritional rehabilitation. This involves slowly increasing nutrient intake – by around 25% above normal requirements – and eating high-quality, protein-rich foods, essential fatty acids, vitamins and minerals.

    During the initial treatment phase children may need to be hospitalised. One concern is refeeding syndrome, a condition where sudden availability of glucose can cause rapid changes in electrolytes. In extreme cases, this can cause heart failure. Researchers are also investigating how to restore the microbiome of malnourished children.

    But access to adequate treatment is not assured, given the widespread damage to Gaza’s hospital system.

    Unfortunately successful treatment doesn’t guarantee survival. Lasting impacts of severe acute malnutrition are linked to high rates of disease and early death, even after treatment. Studies suggest up to 10.4% of children successfully treated in hospitals do not survive 12 months after they’re discharged.

    The devastating social and food conditions in Gaza are unimaginable to those of us living in other parts of the world. With no end in sight, the impact of food insecurity and lack of humanitarian aid can only lead to an escalation of the rates of malnutrition and diseases in those most vulnerable.

    The long-term consequences for Palestinians will be felt for generations to come.

    Clare Dix has received funding from the Australian Department of Health and Aged Care.

    Helen Truby receives funding from the Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing, the MRFF, the NHMRC and various philanthropic agencies.

    – ref. The UN warns famine is likely in Gaza. What do malnutrition and hunger do to the body? – https://theconversation.com/the-un-warns-famine-is-likely-in-gaza-what-do-malnutrition-and-hunger-do-to-the-body-241682

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How light can shift your mood and mental health

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jacob Crouse, Research Fellow in Youth Mental Health, Brain and Mind Centre, University of Sydney

    llaszlo/Shutterstock

    This is the next article in our ‘Light and health’ series, where we look at how light affects our physical and mental health in sometimes surprising ways. Read other articles in the series.

    It’s spring and you’ve probably noticed a change in when the Sun rises and sets. But have you also noticed a change in your mood?

    We’ve known for a while that light plays a role in our wellbeing. Many of us tend to feel more positive when spring returns.

    But for others, big changes in light, such as at the start of spring, can be tough. And for many, bright light at night can be a problem. Here’s what’s going on.

    An ancient rhythm of light and mood

    In an earlier article in our series, we learned that light shining on the back of the eye sends “timing signals” to the brain and the master clock of the circadian system. This clock coordinates our daily (circadian) rhythms.

    “Clock genes” also regulate circadian rhythms. These genes control the timing of when many other genes turn on and off during the 24-hour, light-dark cycle.

    But how is this all linked with our mood and mental health?

    Circadian rhythms can be disrupted. This can happen if there are problems with how the body clock develops or functions, or if someone is routinely exposed to bright light at night.

    When circadian disruption happens, it increases the risk of certain mental disorders. These include bipolar disorder and atypical depression (a type of depression when someone is extra sleepy and has problems with their energy and metabolism).

    Light on the brain

    Light may also affect circuits in the brain that control mood, as animal studies show.

    There’s evidence this happens in humans. A brain-imaging study showed exposure to bright light in the daytime while inside the scanner changed the activity of a brain region involved in mood and alertness.

    Another brain-imaging study found a link between daily exposure to sunlight and how the neurotransmitter (or chemical messenger) serotonin binds to receptors in the brain. We see alterations in serotonin binding in several mental disorders, including depression.

    Our mood can lift in sunlight for a number of reasons, related to our genes, brain and hormones.
    New Africa/Shutterstock

    What happens when the seasons change?

    Light can also affect mood and mental health as the seasons change. During autumn and winter, symptoms such as low mood and fatigue can develop. But often, once spring and summer come round, these symptoms go away. This is called “seasonality” or, when severe, “seasonal affective disorder”.

    What is less well known is that for other people, the change to spring and summer (when there is more light) can also come with a change in mood and mental health. Some people experience increases in energy and the drive to be active. This is positive for some but can be seriously destabilising for others. This too is an example of seasonality.

    Most people aren’t very seasonal. But for those who are, seasonality has a genetic component. Relatives of people with seasonal affective disorder are more likely to also experience seasonality.

    Seasonality is also more common in conditions such as bipolar disorder. For many people with such conditions, the shift into shorter day-lengths during winter can trigger a depressive episode.

    Counterintuitively, the longer day-lengths in spring and summer can also destabilise people with bipolar disorder into an “activated” state where energy and activity are in overdrive, and symptoms are harder to manage. So, seasonality can be serious.

    Alexis Hutcheon, who experiences seasonality and helped write this article, told us:

    […] the season change is like preparing for battle – I never know what’s coming, and I rarely come out unscathed. I’ve experienced both hypomanic and depressive episodes triggered by the season change, but regardless of whether I’m on the ‘up’ or the ‘down’, the one constant is that I can’t sleep. To manage, I try to stick to a strict routine, tweak medication, maximise my exposure to light, and always stay tuned in to those subtle shifts in mood. It’s a time of heightened awareness and trying to stay one step ahead.

    So what’s going on in the brain?

    One explanation for what’s going on in the brain when mental health fluctuates with the change in seasons relates to the neurotransmitters serotonin and dopamine.

    Serotonin helps regulate mood and is the target of many antidepressants. There is some evidence of seasonal changes in serotonin levels, potentially being lower in winter.

    Dopamine is a neurotransmitter involved in reward, motivation and movement, and is also a target of some antidepressants. Levels of dopamine may also change with the seasons.

    But the neuroscience of seasonality is a developing area and more research is needed to know what’s going on in the brain.

    How about bright light at night?

    We know exposure to bright light at night (for instance, if someone is up all night) can disturb someone’s circadian rhythms.

    This type of circadian rhythm disturbance is associated with higher rates of symptoms including self-harm, depressive and anxiety symptoms, and lower wellbeing. It is also associated with higher rates of mental disorders, such as major depression, bipolar disorder, psychotic disorders and post-traumatic stress disorder (or PTSD).

    Why is this? Bright light at night confuses and destabilises the body clock. It disrupts the rhythmic regulation of mood, cognition, appetite, metabolism and many other mental processes.

    But people differ hugely in their sensitivity to light. While still a hypothesis, people who are most sensitive to light may be the most vulnerable to body clock disturbances caused by bright light at night, which then leads to a higher risk of mental health problems.

    Bright light at night disrupts your body clock, putting you at greater risk of mental health issues.
    Ollyy/Shutterstock

    Where to from here?

    Learning about light will help people better manage their mental health conditions.

    By encouraging people to better align their lives to the light-dark cycle (to stabilise their body clock) we may also help prevent conditions such as depression and bipolar disorder emerging in the first place.

    Healthy light behaviours – avoiding light at night and seeking light during the day – are good for everyone. But they might be especially helpful for people at risk of mental health problems. These include people with a family history of mental health problems or people who are night owls (late sleepers and late risers), who are more at risk of body clock disturbances.

    Alexis Hutcheon has lived experience of a mental health condition and helped write this article.

    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

    Jacob Crouse receives funding from Wellcome Trust and National Health and Medical Research Council.

    Professor Hickie is a Professor of Psychiatry and the Co-Director of Health and Policy, Brain and
    Mind Centre, University of Sydney. He has led major public health and health service development
    in Australia, particularly focusing on early intervention for young people with depression, suicidal
    thoughts and behaviours and complex mood disorders. He is active in the development through
    codesign, implementation and continuous evaluation of new health information and personal
    monitoring technologies to drive highly-personalised and measurement-based care. He holds a 3.2%
    equity share in Innowell Pty Ltd that is focused on digital transformation of mental health services.

    Emiliana Tonini does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How light can shift your mood and mental health – https://theconversation.com/how-light-can-shift-your-mood-and-mental-health-231282

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Collisions between planes and birds follow seasonal patterns and overlap with breeding and migration – new research

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tirth Vaishnav, PhD Candidate in Ecology and Biodiversity, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

    Getty Images

    Bird strikes with aircraft pose a serious threat to human safety. The problem dates back to the early days of aviation, with the first death of a pilot recorded in 1912 when an aircraft crashed into the sea after striking a gull.

    Since then, 795 lives have been lost to collisions between aircraft and birds, not to mention the countless bird fatalities.

    As aircraft get faster, quieter, larger and more numerous, the risk of serious accidents increases accordingly. Every year, the aviation industry incurs damages worth billions of dollars.

    To mitigate this problem, airports around the world implement wildlife hazard management, including dispersing flocks away from the runway, tracking local bird movements and managing potential food sources such as landfills and farms near the aerodrome.

    In our recent study, we zoomed out from the local airport and examined seasonal and hemispheric trends in bird strikes.

    We found they peak in late summer and autumn in both hemispheres, but the annual distribution differs between the northern and southern hemispheres. Seasonal trends in bird strikes were seemingly influenced by avian breeding and migration patterns.

    Airports deploy noise barriers and reflective walls to keep birds away from the runway.
    Getty Images

    Seasonal patterns

    To assess seasonal patterns in bird strikes, we gathered information for individual airports from existing literature and online sources. Our dataset includes 122 airports in 16 countries and five continents.

    For each hemisphere, we determined the time of year with the overall highest number of bird strikes and the spread of strikes through the year.

    We found that bird strikes peaked in late August in the northern hemisphere and in early April in the southern hemisphere. Strikes were relatively more seasonal in the north, while they had a greater annual spread in the south.

    For instance, strikes in New York or Oslo in the northern hemisphere were considerably higher in August compared to other times of the year, while in Wellington or Durban in the southern hemisphere, strikes occurred more consistently throughout the year.

    Birds strikes are more seasonal in the northern hemisphere and more distributed across the year in the southern hemisphere.
    Author provided, CC BY-SA

    Bird strikes peaked in the autumn season in each hemisphere. Autumn is generally when young birds fledge and take to the skies. There may be two explanations for why bird strikes are higher during this time of year.

    1. For young birds, avoiding foreign objects in the flight path may be a learned behaviour. This would result in juveniles being struck at a higher rate.

    2. The greater number of birds in the air during autumn due to the influx of fledglings may result in more strikes, with adults and juveniles being struck at random.

    Links to bird migration

    Seasonal peaks in bird strikes were more pronounced in the north compared to the south. Approximately 80% of the southern hemisphere’s surface is water and the solar energy absorbed by the oceans leads to a more stable thermal regime.

    Conversely, the surface of the northern hemisphere is mostly land, leading to greater fluctuations in temperature. Birds migrate in response to these environmental factors and this influences global avian distributions and abundances.

    The intensity of migration is, therefore, much stronger in the northern hemisphere compared to the southern hemisphere, where local bird abundances are more stable seasonally.

    Our findings bridge a gap between aviation safety and macroecology. Airport authorities can use this information in several ways.

    • Wildlife officers can optimise their bird strike mitigation efforts by allocating more resources in the autumn months, particularly in northern regions.

    • Management plans for “problem” species such as gulls are often adapted from existing plans for similar species at other airports. Information on patterns in bird strikes may help in customising these plans to local bird behaviour.

    • Bird strikes are a global issue, so better standardisation in reporting bird strike statistics could improve our ability to analyse them at a global scale.

    Finally, with climate change altering the seasonal timing of cyclical events, such as avian breeding seasons and migration patterns, it may be crucial to forecast the impact of these changes on the seasonal trends in bird strikes.

    To some degree, bird strikes may be inevitable. But with the cooperation of aviation authorities, scientists and policy makers, we may be able to minimise their frequency and intensity.

    Tirth Vaishnav does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Collisions between planes and birds follow seasonal patterns and overlap with breeding and migration – new research – https://theconversation.com/collisions-between-planes-and-birds-follow-seasonal-patterns-and-overlap-with-breeding-and-migration-new-research-241238

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Not too big, not too small: why modern humans are the ideal size for speed

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christofer Clemente, Assistant Professor in Evolutionary Biomechanics, University of the Sunshine Coast

    The fastest animal on land is the cheetah, capable of reaching top speeds of 104 kilometres per hour. In the water, the fastest animals are yellowfin tuna and wahoo, which can reach speeds of 75 and 77 km per hour respectively. In the air, the title of the fastest level flight (excluding diving) goes to the white-throated needletail swift, at more than 112 km per hour.

    What do all of these speedy creatures have in common? None of them are particularly big, nor particularly small for the group of animals they represent. In fact, they are all intermediately sized.

    The reason for this is a bit of a mystery. As animals increase in mass, several biological features change as well. For example, in general leg length steadily increases. But clearly long legs are not the answer, since the largest land animals, like elephants, are not the fastest.

    But my colleagues and I have taken a key step towards solving this mystery. By using a scaleable, virtual model of the human body, we were able to explore the movement of the limbs and muscles, find out what limits speed, and gain important insights into the evolution of the human form over thousands of years.

    From a mouse-sized human to a giant

    Since the early 2000s scientists have been building OpenSim – a freely available, virtual model of the human body, complete with all its bones, muscles and tendons.

    This model has been used in various scientific studies to understand human movement, explore exercise science and to help model the effects of surgery on soft tissues.

    In 2019 a group of Belgium researchers took this one step further, and built a physics-based simulation using OpenSim. Rather than telling the model how to move, they asked it to move forward at a certain speed. The model then figured out which combinations of muscles to activate so it could walk, or run, at the prescribed speed.

    But what if we took this even further and scaled the model down to the size of a mouse? Or what if we scaled the model up to the size of an elephant? Then we could see which models could run – and how fast.

    Predictive muscle-driven simulations of 5kg, 50kg, and 500kg musculoskeletal models moving at 2.25 metres per second.

    This is exactly what my team did. We took the standard human model (75kg), and made smaller and smaller models down to 100 grams. We also made the models bigger, up to 2,000kg, and challenged them to run as fast as they could.

    Getting the mass just right

    Several fascinating things happened when we did this.

    First, the 2,000kg model couldn’t move. Nor could the 1,000kg model. In fact, the largest model that could move was 900kg, suggesting an upper limit to the human form. Beyond this size we need to change shape in order to move.

    We also found that the fastest model was not the biggest nor smallest. Instead, it was around 47kg, a similar weight to an average cheetah. Crucially, we could look under the hood and see why this was so.

    The curve that explains the shape of the maximum running speed with mass is the same shape as the curve, which explains the max ground force with mass. This makes sense: to move faster, you need to push off the ground harder.

    So why couldn’t larger models push harder off the ground? It appeared the larger models were limited by their muscles.

    A muscle’s ability to produce force depends on the cross sectional area of that muscle. And as animals increase in size, the mass of their muscles gets bigger faster than their cross-sectional area.

    This means the muscles of larger animals are relatively weaker. The muscles begin to “max out” above the max speed – and so the model has to slow down.

    At the other end of the spectrum, the miniature models have relatively stronger muscles, but have a problem with gravity. They are just too light. They try to push on the ground to produce a large force, but this just causes their body to leave the ground earlier.

    To try to produce more force on the ground, they crouch their limbs, just like mice or cats do. This allows them to stay on the ground longer and so produce more force, just like you might when doing a standing jump. But this takes time. And the longer you take to produce force, the slower your stride will be and you still won’t run faster.

    So a trade off between ground force and stride frequency begins, and doesn’t end until you reach the intermediate size, where your mass is just right.

    The pattern of speed and size for running animals (in blue), showing intermediately size species (like the cheetah) are typically the fastest. Computer-generated models of humans (right), which are then scaled in size from a mouse to a horse (orange dots), show the same pattern, revealing the underlying biomechanical reasons.
    Christofer Clemente et al.

    As fast as we will get

    What might all of this say about human evolution?

    We know throughout history that the size of modern humans and extinct human species – a collective group known as “hominins” – has varied significantly, from the roughly 30kg Australopithecus afarensis that existed roughly 3.5  million years ago, to the roughly 80kg Homo erectus  from nearly 2 million years ago.

    So generally body mass has tended to increase – and presumably so too has our running speed. Homo naledi, which existed around 300,000 years ago and weighed around 37kg, and Homo floresiensis, which existed around 50,000 years ago and weighed around 27kg, must have had to sacrifice some speed for their small size.

    The average body mass of modern adult humans is around 62kg – a little heavier than the 47kg peak weight that our modelling found, but still close to that ideal size.

    Interestingly, many of our fastest long distance runners such as Eliud Kipchoge weigh around 50kg.

    So based on our new research, we now know humans today are about as fast as we will get – without large changes to our muscular form.

    Christofer Clemente receives funding from an ARC Discovery grant (DP230101886)

    – ref. Not too big, not too small: why modern humans are the ideal size for speed – https://theconversation.com/not-too-big-not-too-small-why-modern-humans-are-the-ideal-size-for-speed-241668

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Hurricane Unpreparedness in the Caribbean, Disaster by Imperial Design

    Source: Council on Hemispheric Affairs – Analysis-Reportage

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘A Different Man’ examines tensions between personal identity and societal expectations

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Billie Anderson, Ph.D. Candidate, Media Studies, Western University

    This story contains spoilers about ‘A Different Man.’

    A Different Man, a new film by Aaron Schimberg, offers a complex and nuanced portrayal of disability, one that both disabled and non-disabled audiences can learn from.

    The film premiered at notable festivals and is now playing in select theatres.

    In an era where disability is receiving long-overdue attention in cinema and films are under greater scrutiny to authentically represent disability, A Different Man pushes the conversation. It does so by emphasizing disability is not merely a challenge to overcome — but an integral part of the human experience.

    It’s crucial for audiences to seek out this film, as its limited release means that many may miss out on Schimberg’s provocative exploration of the tensions between identity, performance and societal expectations.



    Read more:
    Despite its Oscar win, CODA is still a film that depicts deafness as a burden

    Perceptions of disability

    The story centres on Edward (played by Sebastian Stan), a man with neurofibromatosis — a condition that causes tumours to grow on nerves.

    After living for a long time with the condition, Edward seeks out an experimental drug meant to “fix” his appearance. The drug is successful and overnight, Edward transforms from disfigured to conventionally attractive.

    The narrative hinges on Edward’s struggle with self-esteem issues that stem from societal perceptions of his disability. However, the change in his outward appearance only deepens his internal conflict: although Edward physically transforms, his struggles with self-perception and societal rejection persist.

    Trailer for ‘A Different Man.’

    This highlights a critical point made by disability studies scholars, including Rosemarie Garland-Thomson, who argue that our culture pressures disabled individuals to conform to non-disabled norms. Norms about how to look, sure, but also norms about how to behave, communicate and even think.

    Even when the visible markers of disability are removed, the underlying societal pressures and biases remain, illustrating that the true challenge lies not in the body itself, but in the societal structures that dictate what is considered an acceptable life.

    Embracing one’s identity

    This message, however, is turned on its head when audiences meet Oswald, played by Adam Pearson.

    Oswald, who has the same disability that Edward was just cured of, embodies a different relationship with his appearance; he is confident and self-assured, fully embracing his identity without the desire to conform to societal expectations.

    Oswald’s confidence is evident in how he navigates the world unapologetically, refusing to hide or downplay his appearance, a stark contrast to Edward’s desire for transformation. Pearson plays Oswald with a larger-than-life charisma, reminiscent of an Austin Powers type — loud, brash and fully aware of his own charm.

    This boldness not only serves as comic relief but also positions Oswald as a character who owns every room he walks into, subverting what disability studies scholars David T. Mitchell and Sharon L. Snyder argue are expectations of disabled people as passive or self-conscious figures.

    By embracing this energetic, self-assured persona, Oswald disrupts the traditional narrative that disabled people must seek a “cure” or hide their differences to be accepted or achieve happiness.

    His character challenges audiences to rethink the value society places on external appearance, demonstrating that self-acceptance can be far more powerful than fitting into conventional standards of beauty or normalcy.

    Through Oswald’s defiant approach, A Different Man invites viewers to question whether the real issue lies in disability or in society’s limited perceptions of what it means to live fully. Perhaps more than that, for disabled viewers, Oswald’s character offers a refreshing alternative — a model of self-acceptance that defies the pressure to overcome, and instead embrace, radical difference.

    Appearance and conformity

    This contrast raises important questions about the value society places on appearance and conformity. Through Oswald, the film critiques the prevailing belief that a “normal” life — a non-disabled life — is synonymous with happiness or fulfilment.

    Schimberg pushes back against reductive portrayals of disability that have long been seen in the film industry that either elicit pity or offer a misguided sense of inspiration. A Different Man offers a more nuanced and honest representation, capturing the complexity that disability can be: simultaneously challenging and liberating, visible yet invisible, empowering yet stigmatizing.

    With Edward and Oswald as richly developed characters, each embodies distinct relationships with their disabilities — neither character “incorrect” in their interpretation of their lived experience. These contradicting portrayals illustrate it is possible to craft authentic narratives that reflect the realities of disabled life, while also challenging our perception of disability, and highlighting the real struggles that disabled people overcome.

    Questions of identity

    One of the most striking aspects of A Different Man is how it handles identity. After Edward’s transformation, he adopts the name “Guy” and begins living a double life, even wearing a replica of his old face as a mask for a theatre role.

    This surreal detail critiques the performance of disability in the film industry — a theme Schimberg also explored in his 2018 film, Chained for Life.

    Disabled actors are often cast because of their differences, but they are still expected to perform that difference in ways that conform to able-bodied expectations.

    Authenticity in disability representation

    In A Different Man, the relationship between how disabled individuals are perceived by others and their own lived experiences raises crucial questions about authenticity in disability representation.

    Can a non-disabled actor like Sebastian Stan authentically portray a disabled character? Or does it reinforce the objectification of disabled bodies? Schimberg invites the audience to grapple with these questions.



    Read more:
    Mad Max: Fury Road was a pioneering portrayal of disability. Furiosa is a letdown

    Such questions and a shift toward complexity is critical as audiences and filmmakers increasingly recognize the need for inclusive storytelling that goes beyond race and gender to encompass disability.

    As disability studies scholars Mitchell and Snyder argue, narratives that embrace multifaceted identities can disrupt the status quo, offering new insights into how society views disabled individuals outside of the cinema.

    A Different Man serves as a roadmap for these richer portrayals, inviting viewers to engage with the complexities of identity, societal expectations and the human body. The film signifies a reimagining of cinema’s potential to elevate marginalized voices and foster a deeper understanding of diverse experiences that shape people’s stories about disability.

    Billie Anderson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘A Different Man’ examines tensions between personal identity and societal expectations – https://theconversation.com/a-different-man-examines-tensions-between-personal-identity-and-societal-expectations-241100

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What the Thai cave rescue can teach us about unconventional leadership

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Amélie Cloutier, Professor of Strategy and Innovation, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)

    Leadership can emerge from unexpected places, especially during times of crisis. One such example occurred during the 2018 rescue of a group of 12 young soccer players and their coach, who were trapped in a cave in northern Thailand after heavy rains blocked their exit route.

    The 17-day rescue operation involved a co-ordinated response from thousands of people, including 2,000 soldiers, 200 divers and personnel from 100 government agencies. The success of the operation was largely due to an unconventional group of leaders: an international group of cave divers whose unique expertise was vital to the rescue effort.

    Our recent research on the rescue aimed to explore how leadership can emerge outside of the traditional chain of command. To do this, we analyzed a documentary and news coverage about the rescue, along with scientific literature and online searches, including LinkedIn profiles.

    We wanted to better understand development of leaders who don’t adhere to the stereotypical image of heroic or charismatic leaders. These atypical leaders challenge our conventional ideas about what a leader should look like, or how they should act.

    From advisers to leaders

    Tham Luang Nang Non is a cave located beneath Doi Nang Non, a mountain range on the border between Thailand and Myanmar. On June 23, 2018, a group of 12 boys from a local soccer team and their assistant coach became trapped in the cave after heavy rainfall blocked their way out.

    On June 25, Royal Thai Navy SEAL divers arrived and began searching the cave for the team, but the flooding made it impossible to locate them. Initially, civilian cave divers were brought in as advisers to the Navy SEALs. However, when the SEAL divers failed to locate the trapped team, the cave divers took the lead.

    On July 2, two divers from the British Cave Rescue Council found the group alive, and their roles shifted from being advisers to active participants in the rescue operation.

    Following the discovery, the Thai Navy SEAL divers attempted to reclaim their roles as primary rescuers, believing they had the ability to complete the mission. However, their overconfidence and underestimation of the challenges ahead led to a critical setback: those who reached the children were unable to return with them due to a lack of oxygen.

    With the situation worsening, the cave divers successfully persuaded the conventional leaders in place — Governor Narongsak Osatanakorn, Lt. Gen. Bancha Duriyapunt, Rear-Admiral Apakorn Youkongkaew and Capt. Anan Surawan — to allow them to take over the mission.

    The cave divers assembled a new team of expert cave divers from around the world. The extraction began on July 8, and by July 10, everyone had been rescued.

    The ‘Rudolph Effect’

    The rescue operation demonstrates how individuals with specialized skills and social capital can step up to lead effectively, even in the most challenging situations.

    Before the rescue, many viewed cave diving as odd, and even abnormal. In the documentary The Rescue, cave diver Josh Bratchley acknowledged that being in a pitch-black cave underwater is “probably some people’s worst nightmares.” But for cave diver Jim Warny, “once I get underground, that all disappears.”

    For these self-described unconventional individuals, their love for cave diving and exploration serves as a form of escape and empowerment, while accepting that they stand apart from the norm.

    However, their knowledge of navigating cold and dark waters underground, combined with their capital within the cave diving community, made the cave divers effective leaders. This case study demonstrates how leadership can emerge unexpectedly, and how atypical skills like cave diving, if valued and encouraged, can lead to innovative solutions.

    In our study, we coined the term the “Rudolph Effect” to describe how outcasts and unconventional individuals can become key leaders when given opportunities. Like Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer, the term’s namesake, these leaders can guide their teams through extreme situations effectively, using skills and perspectives that traditional leaders might not possess.

    Unconventional and trustworthy helpers can transform into leaders, leveraging their unique skills, knowledge and social capital to manage extreme situations. But this transformation is only possible if they have the chance to demonstrate their abilities.

    Cultivating unconventional leaders

    The need for these unique leaders isn’t limited to extreme situations. By highlighting an extreme example, we aim to show that managers should create more opportunities for unconventional thinkers to contribute, even in day-to-day situations.

    Managers should identify and nurture leadership potential in individuals from diverse backgrounds and experiences. By doing this, organizations can not only improve their ability to handle crises, but also widen their pool of potential leaders. This diversity strengthens companies, making them more resilient and adaptable when facing unexpected challenges.

    This case study serves as a reminder for managers to constantly reassess and adjust their resources to achieve their goals. In tough situations, it can be beneficial to bring in leaders who think outside the box.

    Managers should be aware of the unique skills and connections within their teams to identify these unconventional leaders during their risk planning. They should also have backup plans ready in case initial solutions prove ineffective.

    Amélie Cloutier receives funding from FRQSC.

    Andrew Webb receives funding from SSHRC and le Secrétaire du Conseil du Trésor du Québec.

    – ref. What the Thai cave rescue can teach us about unconventional leadership – https://theconversation.com/what-the-thai-cave-rescue-can-teach-us-about-unconventional-leadership-233538

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: I research rap lyrics and testified in a Toronto rapper’s murder trial

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jabari M. Evans, Assistant Professor of Race and Media, School of Journalism and Mass Communications, University of South Carolina

    Toronto rapper Top5 appearing in his music video ‘Movie’ featuring the rappers Why G and Bundog. The Crown recently stayed murder charges against Top5 after a judge ruled his lyrics and social media content could not be used as evidence. (YouTube/Top5)

    In May, I was in my office grading papers when an email came through from Arika, a paralegal working for Toronto lawyer Gary Grill. They were reaching out to me about potentially serving as an expert witness in a murder trial. The case involved Hassan Ali, better known as the rapper Top5, who was charged in 2021 with first-degree murder in the shooting of 20-year-old accounting student Hashim Omar Hashi.

    Arika mentioned that they had come across my research on drill rap and hoped I could testify on the inadmissibility of rap lyrics and music videos as criminal evidence. Without hesitation, I agreed.

    As an academic expert on hip-hop culture, Black youth, the music industry and the digitization of artistic expression, my research explores the intersection of cultural production, race and legal systems, focusing particularly on drill music culture.

    Drill music is a subgenre of hip-hop that originated in Chicago, characterized by its gritty, raw lyrics focused on street life, violence and survival, often reflecting the harsh realities of inner-city environments.

    Lyrics as evidence

    In September, a judge ruled that Top5’s social media posts, music videos and lyrics were inadmissible as evidence, recognizing that much of what he posted was part of his artistic persona. As a result, the charges against him were stayed.

    The Canadian legal system, like its U.S. counterpart, has allowed these forms of creative expression to be weaponized against artists. This was evident in the case of Chael Mills and Lavare Williams, where rap lyrics were used as evidence contributing to their convictions for murder. That case (and others like it) opened the door for rap lyrics to be used against artists in court, further entrenching harmful stereotypes about Black men and violence. This practice is unjust and perpetuates racial biases.

    Though Top5’s lyrics didn’t explicitly threaten the victim in this case, the prosecution used songs and social media posts in which he alludes to the Go Getem Gang (his crew) being a criminal group. In 2023, he appeared in a music video while in prison where he said: “I was 18 when I bought a gun, 22 when I shot your son.”

    Using rap lyrics and music videos as evidence is not only unfair but it perpetuates the dangerous assumption that rappers’ personas are entirely authentic representations of who they are. This often results in creative expression being misinterpreted as autobiographical fact, jeopardizing someone’s freedom based on their art.

    However, when I delved into Top5’s online presence, I was struck by just how sensational his persona was. Beyond the music videos, he is an avid vlogger and live streamer, frequently discussing recent shootings, open cases involving his friends and making overt threats toward his rivals — all while name-dropping his connections, including Drake. He was using social media in a way that blurred the line between artistic performance and self-incrimination.

    This placed me in a difficult moral position. Reviewing all the evidence and seeing Top5’s brazen online behaviour made me wonder whether defending him would undermine my larger argument: that rap lyrics and videos shouldn’t be used as evidence because they are artistic expressions, not confessions.

    However, this internal debate led me to reaffirm my stance: the very assumptions I was grappling with were precisely what I had been fighting against. Even if Top5 seemed to push the boundaries, it was still unjust for the legal system to interpret his art and social media as literal truths.

    ‘Heard of Me’ by Top5 featuring Why G.

    Clout chasing

    What became clear to me was that Top5, like many young rappers, was caught in the grip of clout chasing — a phenomenon driven by the need for attention and validation in today’s social media age.

    Clout chasing isn’t just about gaining followers; it reflects deeper issues in society, especially among Black youth.

    As sociologist Elijah Anderson described, the tension between earning respect in the streets and striving for middle-class success is central to understanding drill rappers like Top5. On one side, Black youth are encouraged to adopt “decency” as defined by white society and achieve upward mobility through socially acceptable means.

    On the other, they must navigate the “code of the streets,” where respect is earned through fearlessness and survival, often in defiance of mainstream societal norms.

    Top5’s rise illustrates this tension vividly. His strategy for visibility online relied heavily on broadcasting the most sensational aspects of his life — threats, rivalries and bravado — all while crafting a persona as a street entrepreneur.

    However, Top5’s lyrics, videos and social media posts exist in a gray area between reality and performance art. What Hassan Ali creates as Top5 is a carefully constructed character, not a confession to crimes.

    This distinction is crucial in understanding why these forms of expression should not be used as evidence in court. The very nature of rap as a genre involves exaggeration, metaphor and artistic license, and treating it as literal truth is both unjust and misleading.

    The broader implications of clout chasing and the digital age on legal proceedings are significant. Top5’s use of digital clout is, in many ways, a symptom of what some scholars have called “emotional illiteracy” among some young Black men — a kind of bravado or fearlessness that manifests as aggression or recklessness online.

    Yet, this behaviour is often misunderstood. It’s not about incriminating oneself. It’s about asserting one’s worth and survival in a society that has long marginalized young Black voices.

    A trailer for ‘As We Speak: Rap Music on Trial,’ a documentary that explores the weaponization of rap lyrics in the U.S. criminal justice system.

    Legal implications

    The judge’s decision in Top5’s case was groundbreaking. It underscored that even in an era of social media oversharing, courts must be careful not to conflate performance with reality. For the first time, a court acknowledged that an artist’s social media content could be as much a part of their creative self-expression as their lyrics or music videos.

    This ruling was not only significant for rap and hip-hop artists who have long been subjected to legal scrutiny based on their work. It also signals a growing recognition that creative expression — whether in the form of lyrics, videos or even Instagram posts — cannot be treated as literal fact without risking injustice.

    As rap music continues to evolve and engage with social issues, it’s imperative that the legal system evolves alongside it, developing a more nuanced understanding of artistic expression in the digital age.

    Using rap music as evidence in criminal trials is not just a legal issue but a cultural one. It speaks to how society views Black art and Black lives. By treating rap lyrics as confessions, the legal system perpetuates harmful stereotypes about Black men as inherently violent or criminal.

    The decision in Top5’s case represents a step forward, but the fight for justice is far from over. We must remain vigilant in protecting the creative freedoms of all artists, regardless of how controversial their work may seem.

    Jabari M. Evans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. I research rap lyrics and testified in a Toronto rapper’s murder trial – https://theconversation.com/i-research-rap-lyrics-and-testified-in-a-toronto-rappers-murder-trial-241884

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Not the time to share: NZ needs to rethink multi-bed hospital rooms

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cindy Towns, Senior Lecturer, University of Otago Wellington, University of Otago

    As New Zealand agonises over its hospitals – where they are, how they should be staffed and how they should be funded – a key element in the debate is being missed: the need for single rooms in all public hospitals.

    It’s currently normal for patients to stay in shared rooms with up to five other people. In some hospitals this includes accommodating men and women in the same room, despite serious safety and ethical concerns.

    But it shouldn’t be this way. For a number of reasons, including infection control, privacy and cost, new hospitals and renovations need to be based on single occupancy rooms.

    Our new research brings together both the clinical and ethical arguments for single rooms for all patients as the most basic standard of care.

    Infection control

    Many may view shared rooms as a cost saving. But one of the key arguments for individual rooms in hospitals is the cost and harm of infections and bacterial resistance.

    Single rooms reduce risks by eliminating exposure to shared infection sources such as touched surfaces, unfiltered air, toilets and water systems.

    They also reduce the need for room transfers within the hospital which increase the risk for infection transmission between patients.

    There is strong evidence single occupancy rooms result in reduced infections in intensive care units. And further research has also found single occupancy reduces hospital transmission of COVID-19.

    In New Zealand, single rooms are prioritised for patients known to be infectious. But the key word here is known. This policy fails to recognise that a large proportion of transmissible infections are unknown at the time of ward placement.

    However, even when infection is known, our hospitals cannot meet basic guidelines due to the lack of single rooms. Only 30% of Wellington and Hutt hospital rooms are single occupancy, for example.

    Without single occupancy as the standard in hospitals, infection control will remain compromised.

    Delirium and dementia

    Individual rooms are also required for older adults. New Zealand’s population is ageing; as a result, patients with delirium and dementia needing hospitalisation will increase.

    Delirium affects about 25% of patients in hospital and is associated with a longer stay, more complications and an increased risk for death.

    Delirium prevention and management requires a low-stimulus environment, undisrupted sleep, and control of light and noise which cannot be achieved in shared hospital rooms.

    Research has shown a reduction in delirium with single rooms.

    The behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia also pose significant challenges in hospital. Symptoms include hallucinations, delusions, sleep disturbance, depression, inappropriate sexual behaviour and aggression.

    These can be highly distressing for the patient and those around them and – like delirium – cannot be managed to a basic standard of care within a shared room.

    Dementia prevalence will more than double by 2050. And yet New Zealand hospitals are ill-prepared to accommodate this rise in demand.

    The right to security, privacy and dignity

    Shared rooms in hospitals clearly undermine clinical care, but they also violate human and patient rights.

    One of the most fundamental human rights is “security of person”. Nobody should have to share rooms with patients who are agitated, aggressive or sexually inappropriate due to delirium or dementia.

    Unfortunately, patients frequently share with those who are unable to manage their own behaviour. While the risks to women have been highlighted, no patient should be endangered or frightened by another patient’s behaviour.

    Dignity and privacy are also a fundamental patient rights, with privacy covered by by both the Health Information Privacy Code and the Health and Disability patient Code of Rights.

    Hospital patients often need assistance with dressing, showering and toileting. Many admissions involve vomiting, diarrhoea or incontinence. And design that relies on curtains to maintain privacy renders this right farcical.

    Research and complaints clearly show patients do not believe their privacy is adequately protected in shared spaces.

    Some may argue for multi-bed rooms on the basis that some patients prefer company. However patient surveys on privacy and confidentiality are overwhelmingly in favour of single occupancy.

    Factoring in cost

    While there is an increase in up-front costs when building single rooms due to the larger hospital footprint, research has found there is no convincing economic evidence in favour of multi-bed rooms.

    The potential savings for future pandemics – in mortality, patient transfers and disease transmission – should not be underestimated. Improved management of delirium and dementia, will also decrease length of stay and cost.

    The argument for single occupancy hospital rooms on clinical, ethical and legal grounds is collectively unequivocal.

    New Zealand needs to follow international best practice and introduce single occupancy rooms as a basic standard for new hospital builds and upgrades.

    Not doing so would ignore the lessons learnt in the COVID-19 pandemic, fail to account for the needs of an ageing population and continue to render New Zealand’s code of patient rights a fairy tale.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Not the time to share: NZ needs to rethink multi-bed hospital rooms – https://theconversation.com/not-the-time-to-share-nz-needs-to-rethink-multi-bed-hospital-rooms-241573

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Five reasons weight-loss jabs alone won’t help get people back to work

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lucie Nield, Senior Lecturer in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Sheffield

    Weight-loss injectables don’t address the many core reasons for why weight gain and unemployment occur in the first place. oleschwander/ Shutterstock

    Prime Minister Keir Starmer and health secretary Wes Streeting have recently discussed plans to trial weight-loss injections for around 250,000 people with obesity who are unemployed in a bid to get them back into work, ease pressure on the NHS and boost the economy.

    Obesity is estimated to cost UK society around £35 billion annually. This is due to lower productivity and higher NHS treatment costs.

    Around 26% of the English adult population (approximately 15 million) are considered obese. However, it’s not known what proportion of unemployed people are obese.

    While weight-loss injections have proven to be very effective in helping people who are obese to lose weight and lower their risk of certain chronic diseases, there are many reasons why these drugs alone won’t help tackle obesity and unemployment rates in the UK.

    1. Lack of capacity

    The majority of UK people who are obese are likely to meet the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence’s eligibility criteria for weight-loss injections.

    But prescribing these drugs is just one part of the equation. Eligible patients will require support from specialist services who provide guidance in making the appropriate lifestyle changes (such as to their diet) to successfully lose weight while on these drugs. This is crucial, as all of the weight-loss injection trials to date have involved a behaviour change component. This may potentially be key to the successful weight losses observed in these studies.

    However, current demand for weight-loss services is already outstripping capacity. Nearly half of eligible patients in England are unable to get an appointment with a specialist team. Weight-loss injections can only be prescribed through such services currently. If the government is to roll out the proposed programme, they will need to rethink the way weight-loss services are delivered so all eligible patients can access support.

    2. Won’t work for everyone

    Weight-loss jabs don’t necessarily work for everyone. One study found that 9-15% of participants who took the drug tirzepatide (Mounjaro) did not lose clinically significant amounts of weight.

    Weight-loss jabs may also cause intolerable side-effects for some. Trials have shown between 4-8% of participants couldn’t tolerate the side-effects, causing them to drop out of the study. Constipation, diarrhoea and nausea are some of the most commonly reported.

    People with certain health conditions may be unable to use weight-loss injections – such as those with inflammatory bowel disease and pancreatitis. In such cases, weight-loss jabs may worsen symptoms or interact with the prescription drugs used to manage these conditions, increasing risk of harm.

    There are many reasons why weight loss jabs may not work for a person.
    Mohammed_Al_Ali/ Shutterstock

    Additionally, some people may not want to take an injection – whether that’s simply due to personal preference or even fear of needles.

    3. Obesity is a complex issue

    There are many complex factors that contribute to weight gain – such as opportunities for physical activity, access to healthy foods and levels of deprivation in a community. Prescribing weight-loss jabs to help people lose weight may not be effective long-term if the rest of these factors are not also addressed.

    A more effective way of seeing significant, sustainable reductions in obesity levels across a population is by using a “whole systems approach”. This would address to the multiple environmental, social and economic factors that contribute to obesity.

    Where whole systems approaches have been embedded in healthcare design and delivery, they have led to improvements in services and patient outcomes – including obesity-related metrics (such as patients making healthier food choices and being more active).

    However, one limitation to whole systems approaches is challenges in measuring impact. This can reduce political will to implement these approaches.

    4. Obesity stigma

    Obesity stigma in the workplace is a huge barrier to satisfactory employment and leads to poor wellbeing and burnout.

    Obesity stigma in the workplace perpetuates harmful weight-based stereotypes that overweight and obese people are lazy, unsuccessful, unintelligent and lack willpower. As a result, people with obesity are more likely to be in insecure and lower-paid jobs than those who may be considered of a healthy weight.

    It’s also well-evidenced that regular exposure to stigmatising, isolating and degrading prejudices has long-term consequences on physical and mental health – and may lead to problems such as binge eating and depression.This can lead to a loss of productivity, absenteeism and loneliness.

    Prescribing weight-loss jabs to help a person lose weight doesn’t address the core reasons for why they may have been absent from work or unemployed in the first place. Nor does it help to address the mental health struggles they may still harbour as a result of discrimination they might have experienced.

    5. Barriers to employment

    Weight loss alone does not begin to address the complex physical and mental health reasons for why a person might be unemployed. A person may also be unemployed due to factors such as caring responsibilities or disability.

    Current prescribing restrictions also limit some injections to a maximum of 24 months (although further trials are ongoing). This means that even if a person has successfully lost weight, they may regain that weight again when they stop using the drug. This could mean any health problems they experienced prior to losing weight (and which may have prevented them from being in employment) could reemerge.

    There are better ways of getting people back into work than prescribing weight-loss jabs. Flexible working approaches, for instance, may make it easier for someone who is unemployed due to caring responsibilities or health problems to transition back into employment. Supportive policies and workplace wellbeing programmes may be a more cost-effective way of helping people to overcome barriers, improve their health and transition back into work.

    Lucie Nield has received funding from The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) for evaluation of children’s weight management services.

    Lucie Nield sits on the Board of Trustees for Darnall Wellbeing (a local community service organisation).

    – ref. Five reasons weight-loss jabs alone won’t help get people back to work – https://theconversation.com/five-reasons-weight-loss-jabs-alone-wont-help-get-people-back-to-work-241835

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Do we need a European DARPA to cope with technological challenges in Europe?

    Source: The Conversation – France – By David W. Versailles, Professor, strategic management and innovation management, co-director of PSB’s newPIC chair, PSB Paris School of Business

    The headquarters of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in Arlington, Virginia. ajay_suresh/Flickr, CC BY

    The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is often held as a model for driving technology advances. For decades, it has contributed to military and economic dominance by bridging the gap between military and civilian applications. European policymakers frequently reference DARPA in discussions, as outlined in the 2024 Draghi Report, but an EU equivalent has yet to materialise. To create such an agency, the governance and management of European innovation programmes would need drastic changes.

    DARPA supports disruptive innovation

    Founded in 1958, DARPA operates under the US Department of Defense (DoD) with a straightforward mission: to fund high-risk technological programmes that could lead to radical innovation. DARPA provides support throughout the innovation process, focusing on environments where new uses for technology must be invented or adapted. Although part of the DoD, DARPA funds projects that promise technological and economic superiority whether they align with current military priorities or not. DARPA has backed projects like ARPANET, the precursor to the internet, and the GPS. Today, DARPA shows interest in autonomous vehicles for urban areas and new missile technologies.

    As part of its core mission, DARPA accepts high financial risks on exploration projects and makes long-term commitments to these projects. Many emblematic successes explain why DARPA is a reference agency. However, the list of failed projects is even longer. Both failures and successes feed the exploration process in emerging industrial sectors. They represent opportunities to learn together and build collective strategies in innovation ecosystems.

    Five key principles of DARPA

    DARPA’s success stems not just from its stability but from adhering to five organisational principles that allow it to explore deep tech in an open innovation context:

    • Independence: DARPA operates independently from other military services, research & development centres and federal agencies, allowing it to explore options outside dominant research paradigms. While cooperation is possible, its decisions and directions are not influenced by other parts of the federal administration.

    • Agility: The agency’s flat organisational structure minimises bureaucracy. Its independent decision-making processes and streamlined contracting allow it to pivot quickly, test new concepts and collaborate with academic or private sector partners. Agility also enables DARPA to test new exploration or experimentation methods that are often based on user-centric approaches. Potential military or civilian end-users are involved very early in innovation projects to discuss potential uses and applications. This approach has recently led DARPA to absorb the Strategic Capabilities Office (SCO), where officers from the different military services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Marines) and all military ranks test new technological solutions (from different maturity levels), fostering co-creation processes with military innovators and expanding the agency’s impact.

    • Sponsorship: High-ranking executives within the DoD and other federal administrations (NASA, Department of Energy) endorse, but do not commission, DARPA’s projects. This sponsorship model increases a project’s potential impact and allows for swift adaptation if a project fails.

    • Community building: DARPA creates innovation communities with a mix of diverse expertise. By bringing different perspectives together, it fosters collective strategies essential for disruptive innovation.

    • Diverse leadership: Project managers come from a range of backgrounds, including civilian experts, military officers and private-sector professionals. All have demonstrated scientific and technological expertise and a solid capability to bridge dreams and foresight with reality. All have a perfect command of risk and complexity management. Managers serve three- to four-year terms focused on driving technological disruption and building new innovation ecosystems. Their diverse expertise sets DARPA apart from other federal agencies.

    The challenge of a European DARPA

    The Draghi Report on European competitiveness suggests that a European DARPA could help bridge technological gaps, reduce dependencies and accelerate the green transition. However, implementing this model would require a seismic shift in how European agencies operate. Creating a new agency would be ineffective without ensuring that all principles underlying the success of DARPA are implemented in Europe.

    Even if Europe actively promotes deep tech and devotes significant budgets to it, European public policies and ways of working prevailing in national and European agencies are hardly consistent with the DARPA model. European agencies do not have much autonomy in their decisions about the exploration of new ventures or human resource management. They clearly demonstrate an outcome-focused orientation inconsistent with DARPA’s approach to risk.

    Two main challenges

    European agencies often lack the stable missions, scope and ambition seen at DARPA. The European Space Agency (ESA), the European Defence Agency (EDA) and Eurocontrol highlight the difficulties in developing cohesive, cross-border innovation ecosystems. A European DARPA would require a unified ambition among EU member states, a challenging feat given the institutional and geopolitical divides within Europe. The debates around the European Defence Fund illustrate how complex it is to reach consensus on shared objectives and funding.

    Adopting DARPA’s five organisational principles would represent a cultural revolution for European agencies in relation to EU bureaucratic norms and the budgetary controls of individual member states. Implementing these changes would also disrupt the existing power balance between countries. The DARPA model is inconsistent with the European “fair returns” model that refers to proportionality rules between funding, research operations and then industrial repartition during the production phase between member states in each project. The DARPA model would only focus on existing competencies, excellence, risk-taking approaches and entrepreneurial mindsets.

    Establishing a European DARPA would require a fundamental rethinking of public policy management in Europe. Its success would depend on whether European stakeholders are willing to adopt DARPA’s core principles, including its independence, agility and willingness to accept failure. Creating an agency is one thing; ensuring it adheres to the structures that make DARPA effective is another. The question remains: Is Europe ready for this transformation?

    David W. Versailles has received funding from the French Ministry of Defence to develop this research.

    Valérie Mérindol has received funding from the French Ministry of the Armed Forces to develop this research.

    – ref. Do we need a European DARPA to cope with technological challenges in Europe? – https://theconversation.com/do-we-need-a-european-darpa-to-cope-with-technological-challenges-in-europe-240696

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: South Africa’s fight against extreme poverty needs a new strategy – model shows how social grants could work

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Ramos Emmanuel Mabugu, Professor, Sol Plaatje University

    South Africa has been struggling for decades to reduce poverty, inequality and unemployment and raise the rate of economic growth.

    Economic growth has been slow since a recession in 2008. The annual growth rate averaged 1.1% between 2009 and 2021, slowing to 0.6% in 2023.

    Unemployment remains stubbornly above 30%. It was 32.9% in the first quarter of 2024.

    The country’s Gini coefficient, a measure of how income is distributed across the population, is estimated to be 0.63, one of the worst in the world. Poverty levels remain high too. A large number of people live in extreme poverty. According to Statistics South Africa, an estimated 40.0% of the population (or 25 million people) have a monthly consumption expenditure of below R9,096 (which is used as the lower-bound poverty line). And 55.5% of the population falls within the upper-bound poverty line, with monthly consumption expenditure of below R13,656.

    This is despite government’s extensive spending on social assistance and other support mechanisms. In the 2023/24 fiscal year, there were 18.8 million social grant beneficiaries (about 35% of the population) with an annual cost to the fiscus of R217.1 billion (US$12.2 billion). This is expected to increase to R259.3 billion (US$14.6 billion) in 2026/27.

    Social support also includes spending on health, education, social protection, community development and employment programmes which protect the most vulnerable groups. In addition, the government has extended the Social Relief of Distress Grant which was introduced during the COVID pandemic.

    Based on my research as an economist for the last 20 years, I believe the government won’t make much progress in reducing unemployment, inequality and poverty unless it adopts a different strategy – one that targets extreme poverty reduction explicitly.

    In a recent paper, colleagues and I identify key conditions for reducing extreme poverty through social transfers. We designed an economic simulation model to track the effect of increasing social grants to very poor South Africans to move them out of extreme poverty. This would be done by transferring an average of R4,020 (US$225) to every extremely poor South African. Based on our assumptions, about 25 million individuals would be eligible for this social transfer.

    Moving about 25 million South Africans out of extreme poverty would cost on average US$6.5 billion per year. We argue that this cost is worth carrying. Our model also showed that, under certain conditions, poverty-alleviation social transfers can be good for the broader economy.

    Additional benefits

    We know that social grants are important instruments to fight poverty and inequality in South Africa. They can produce sizeable multiplier effects in the economy.

    But we wanted to know more about how society benefits when a large share of the public budget is transferred to poor households.

    What makes the model we built to explore this different is that we simulated the economic implications of a hypothetical South Africa with lower poverty and inequality outcomes. More precisely, we set the poverty headcount rate at the lower-bound poverty line at 5.0% under both unconstrained and constrained scenarios. This is the conventionally accepted definition of extreme poverty eradication.

    The tool combined a macroeconomic model to project the economic impacts and a micro-simulation model to work out the poverty and inequality effects.

    We tested a combination of policy options, including social grants, and their multiplier effects and funding implications. We considered two financing scenarios: one that involved a budget deficit and one which was budget-neutral.

    Under a budget-neutral scenario, funding for interventions would be taken from budgets allocated for other purposes and put towards poverty alleviation instead.

    Key findings

    The model showed that the South African economy, measured by the level of gross domestic product (GDP), would grow faster (by 0.5 percentage points) when the transfer was designed to support poor people’s progressive engagement in economic participation rather than simply providing them with a basic cash grant. This can be done, for instance, by expanding and upgrading the current social assistance schemes such as the public work programmes. These have been shown to have positive outcomes for economic participation.

    When people who receive income transfers are able to work, they contribute to a higher supply of goods and services as well as to higher demand.

    The inflationary effects, in particular food price increases, are limited under this scenario.

    On the other hand, GDP deteriorates by 1 percentage point when there is no requirement or condition for participation (when grant recipients still don’t have a job). Under this scenario food demand increases and related price increases contribute to reducing consumers’ purchasing power.

    What needs to be done

    Our model shows how poverty-alleviation social transfers can have positive economic outcomes under two conditions.

    First, the expansion of the grant lifting approximately 25 million South Africans above the lower-bound poverty line of R9,606 has to be done under a budget-neutral funding arrangement.

    Second, the transfer has to be made with a requirement that there is an increase in the economic participation of extremely poor beneficiaries. In other words, the grant only has a positive effect if the very poor beneficiaries can find work or are required to participate in a certain kind of public work activity.

    The fiscal cost of the poverty alleviating grant transfer would be around 1.6% of GDP or 4.9% of public expenditure. This would mean increasing social spending by 4.9%. Alternatively, spending on other areas would have to be cut by the same proportion.

    In either scenario, the findings show that this constraint might even be relaxed if the fiscal transfer enabled poor people to get work or if the cash transfer was conditional on recipients doing certain work.

    In our view the benefits of this are massive in terms of extreme poverty eradication.

    Ramos Emmanuel Mabugu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. South Africa’s fight against extreme poverty needs a new strategy – model shows how social grants could work – https://theconversation.com/south-africas-fight-against-extreme-poverty-needs-a-new-strategy-model-shows-how-social-grants-could-work-241694

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How does REACH, the EU regulation governing chemical substances, work?

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Johanna Berneron, Toxicologue reglementaire, Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l’alimentation, de l’environnement et du travail (Anses)

    Adopted by the European Union in 2006, the REACH regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals) governs the manufacture and use of chemical substances in Europe. Despite its importance, REACH has often been criticised for being slow and complex. These concerns prompted calls for reform as part of the European Green Deal, though the European Commission ultimately postponed the revision. Various NGOs have called for this reform, and in early 2024, the French National Assembly’s European Affairs Committee reignited the conversation, with a resolution currently under review.

    Nevertheless, REACH remains an ambitious and indispensable regulation that protects human health and the environment from the hazards posed by chemical substances. While it’s not perfect, it represents progress in comparison with previous regulatory frameworks. One notable success is the ban on bisphenol A (BPA), a controversial chemical previously used in baby bottles.

    Understanding the REACH process

    REACH is straightforward if you break down its steps:

    • Substance registration: Manufacturers must submit detailed information on the chemical, toxicological and environmental properties of substances they produce or import. If no data exists, they are required to generate it. Unlike previous regulations and directives, REACH places the burden of proof on companies. To comply with the regulation, companies must identify and adequately manage the risks associated with the substances they manufacture and market in the EU. In particular, they must demonstrate how the substances can be used safely and communicate risk management measures to users.

    • Compliance checks: The European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) ensures that the registration dossiers are complete and meet regulatory requirements. This is known as compliance analysis.

    • Substance evaluation: If concerns arise, a substance undergoes further evaluation to assess risks to human health and the environment. This procedure is conducted by the member states (with ANSES representing France) and enables the authorities to request additional information from industries.

    Member states, including ANSES, carry out these evaluations, focusing on national health priorities. Substances flagged for further assessment are added to the Community Rolling Action Plan (CoRAP), a three-year plan outlining substances to be evaluated by member states.

    If additional safety measures are needed, several outcomes are possible:

    • SVHC identification: Substances of Very High Concern (SVHC) may require authorisation for continued use.

    • Restrictions: Can limit or ban certain uses of a substance.

    • Classification: Hazardous substances may be classified as carcinogenic, toxic to reproduction or in other such categories and must be labelled for these hazardous properties.

    Bisphenol A: a case study

    Bisphenol A (BPA) exemplifies REACH’s impact. In 2017, Germany initiated an evaluation of BPA, resulting in its classification as a reprotoxic substance under the EU’s Classification, Labelling and Packaging (CLP) regulation. BPA was also identified as an SVHC due to its endocrine-disrupting properties, which pose risks to human health and the environment.

    Although these various management measures have faced legal challenges from industry, including through appeals, all have been upheld. They have proven effective, as highlighted by a European Environment Agency (EEA) report showing that BPA concentrations in Europeans’ urine are decreasing, in contrast to other bisphenols.

    The role of ANSES

    ANSES plays a key role in implementing the EU’s REACH regulation, supporting French authorities in managing chemical risks. Among its responsibilities, ANSES can identify a substance as an SVHC, preparing dossiers that can lead to these substances being added to Annex XIV of REACH. Once listed, the substances are restricted, and their use is only allowed if the European Commission specifically authorises it. Such authorisations are granted when it’s proven that the risks are controlled or the socioeconomic benefits outweigh them.

    Before a substance is included in Annex XIV, it must first be identified as an SVHC. This step is aimed at encouraging the gradual replacement of these hazardous chemicals with safer alternatives, protecting both human health and the environment.

    ANSES also prepares restriction dossiers, evaluating the socioeconomic impact of limiting or banning substances that pose unacceptable risks. These restrictions can apply to chemicals in their pure form, in mixtures, or within products.

    Additionally, ANSES produces harmonised classification dossiers for chemicals like carcinogens, mutagens, and reproductive and respiratory sensitizers, for instance. Once included in Annex VI of the CLP regulation, industries must label their products accordingly, alerting users – especially workers – about potential hazards and ensuring proper precautions are taken.

    Room for improvement

    Despite improvements, the REACH regulation still faces significant challenges. Many industries, and particularly smaller companies, struggle to comply due to the high cost of registration. In 2018, the German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR) reported that 31% of chemical substances produced in or imported into the EU in quantities over 1,000 tonnes per year failed to meet REACH requirements.

    In response, ECHA has enhanced its chemical data management, but industries remain unsatisfied, accusing ECHA of pushing for classifications or requesting new tests without robust toxicological justifications. These requests often aim to address data gaps in industry-provided dossiers while minimising animal testing.

    REACH’s main limitation is its dependence on industry-submitted data to evaluate chemical risks. These data can be incomplete, outdated or missing, forcing regulators to request additional information, which delays risk assessments and decision-making.

    Consequently, the evaluation of substances and review of authorisation requests are often slow, delaying the entry of safer, innovative chemicals. Many potentially hazardous substances remain on the market without adequate regulation, a persistent concern from a public health standpoint.

    A revision of REACH is expected to streamline processes, improve efficiency and impose stricter penalties on non-compliant industries, potentially revoking their REACH registration numbers. This would prevent the sale of substances without the necessary data.

    These changes align with the European Commission’s strategy for a toxic-free environment under the European Green Deal. However, there is concern that lobbying could undermine this vital regulation, a global standard in chemical safety.

    Despite its complexities, REACH remains a critical safeguard for European public health and environmental protection.

    Johanna Berneron ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    – ref. How does REACH, the EU regulation governing chemical substances, work? – https://theconversation.com/how-does-reach-the-eu-regulation-governing-chemical-substances-work-241931

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Abortion and marijuana ballot measures may bring out Florida Democrats, but the GOP has 1M more active voters in the Sunshine State

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Daniel A. Smith, Professor of Political Science, University of Florida

    Could ballot initiatives bring more Democrats to the polls in Florida? Jeffrey Greenberg/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    The number of voters registered as Democrats has tumbled in recent years in Florida, effectively removing the Sunshine State as a battleground and placing it firmly in the red column.

    At least that’s the dominant narrative found in many media outlets. And it is true that Republican Donald Trump won the state in both 2016 and 2020.

    Still, Nikki Fried, the Florida Democratic party chair, thinks Florida Democrats are making a “clear resurgence.”

    Buoyed by broad support for two statewide initiatives on the ballot – the legalization of recreational marijuana and the establishment of a constitutional right to abortion up to viability – Fried is predicting robust turnout of Democratic voters this November despite concerns hurricanes Helene and Milton may suppress turnout.

    Fried suggests that Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Debbie Mucarsel-Powell will benefit from the two hot issues on the ballot. A ban on most abortions after six weeks went into effect in Florida on May 1, 2024, with the state Supreme Court at the same time deciding to put the issue to voters.

    The marijuana ballot measure looks likely to pass, while support for the abortion access measure is more uncertain. But the point is that these are the types of issues that bring Democrats – and unaffiliated voters – out to the polls.

    I’ve written extensively on direct democracy and Florida politics. My research shows how ballot measures can have what I call “educative effects,” not only bolstering turnout but also priming voters to choose candidates who support the same initiatives they do.

    This goes a long way to explain Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’ efforts to thwart both measures, going so far as to use taxpayers’ dollars to oppose the abortion amendment.

    Florida’s abortion amendment needs to pass with 60% of the vote, so turnout is key.
    Rebecca Blackwell/AP Photo

    Active voters

    But Fried and the Democrats face a major hurdle – a widening voter registration gap – as Florida Republicans are quick to point out. Over the past several years, the GOP steadily narrowed the Democratic Party’s lead in voter registrations in the Sunshine State, finally surpassing Democrats’ plurality of active registered voters in 2021.

    Fried thinks the widening gap between registered Republicans and Democrats is a mirage. She claims that the Republican advantage is an artifact of a shift in state law that more aggressively reclassifies voters as being “inactive” if they don’t vote in two general election cycles or keep their information on file with local supervisors of elections.

    There is no question that the law, which went into effect in 2022, has deflated Democratic registration numbers. Here are the stats.

    According to the Florida secretary of state’s website, updated on Oct. 7, 2024, there are more than 1 million more registered Republicans (5,455,480) than Democrats (4,400,561) in Florida, followed by no party affiliation (3,584,982) and those registered with minor parties (404,890). That is, Republicans appear to account for more than 39% of registered voters in the Sunshine State, while Democrats make up less than 32%.

    However, the numbers posted on Florida’s official website, which amount to nearly 13.7 million registered voters, are misleading: They tally only active voters in the state.

    There are more than 2.5 million inactive voters on the rolls as of Aug. 1, 2024, according to my calculation of publicly available raw voter files. This brings the total number of registered voters in Florida to more than 16 million people.

    Inactive and unaffiliated voters

    Inactive registered voters have every right to cast ballots just like active voters. The main difference between the two groups is that inactive voters didn’t vote in 2020 or 2022.

    There are hundreds of thousands more inactive Democrats and unaffiliated voters than Republicans on the rolls. This is likely the result of lackluster campaigns in the state for Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in 2020 and for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist in 2022. Uninspired Democrats and unaffiliated voters didn’t show up to the polls, particularly in 2022.

    Currently, according to the publicly available Florida voter rolls, there are over 900,000 inactive Democrats and over 921,000 inactive unaffiliated voters, compared with fewer than 643,000 inactive Republicans. So, while Republicans account for 39% of active voters, they account for only 25% of inactive voters.

    To sharpen the point: 1 in 10 Republicans are currently inactive, whereas nearly 2 in 5 of all registered Democrats and more than 1 in 5 unaffiliated voters in Florida are inactive. These inactive voters tend not to receive the same attention from parties and groups trying to mobilize registered voters to the polls.

    There’s no question that the fortunes of the Florida Democratic Party have tumbled over the past decade. Twelve years ago, just prior to the 2012 general election, Democrats accounted for 40% of all active registered voters. It’s been a sharp decline down to 32%.

    But the difference has not been made up by Republicans. From 2012 to 2024, the share of active voters registered as Republicans increased by only 3 percentage points, from 36% to 39%.

    The biggest increase in the share of active voters over the same period is with unaffiliated voters, whose share jumped 5 percentage points, from less than 21% in 2012 to 26% in 2024. These unaffiliated voters in Florida tend to be younger and Hispanic, many of whom likely have been turned off by the toxic political landscape in the state.

    But back to the November election and Fried’s prognostications.

    Will the two statewide ballot measures – Amendment 3 on recreational marijuana and Amendment 4 on reproductive rights – offset the rise in Republican voter registration in Florida? Is the sizable lead of Republican active voters a mirage, only to disappear as Election Day nears?

    It will come down to turnout and whether inactive Democratic and unaffiliated voters’ support for Amendment 3 and Amendment 4 primes them to back the Democratic ticket.

    Daniel A. Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Abortion and marijuana ballot measures may bring out Florida Democrats, but the GOP has 1M more active voters in the Sunshine State – https://theconversation.com/abortion-and-marijuana-ballot-measures-may-bring-out-florida-democrats-but-the-gop-has-1m-more-active-voters-in-the-sunshine-state-239538

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –