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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Philly hospitals test new strategy for ‘tranq dope’ withdrawal – and it keeps patients from walking out before their treatment is done

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kory London, Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine, Thomas Jefferson University

    Patients suffering withdrawal from fentanyl and xylazine can require intensive care. SDI Productions/E+ Collection via Getty Images

    Unimaginable pain and restlessness. Vomiting so frequent and forceful that it can perforate the esophagus. Blood pressure and heart rate so high that they damage the heart. Sweating that drenches clothing and sheets. Nerve sensitivity that makes even the softest touch agonizing. A prolonged panic attack that is provoked and worsened by even mundane activities and conversations.

    The withdrawal symptoms from “tranq dope” – the combination of the synthetic opioid fentanyl and the animal tranquilizer xylazine that dominates Philadelphia’s street opioids supply – tend to be far worse than those experienced by even the most severe heroin users of the past.

    So it’s no surprise that people will do whatever they can to forestall them. That includes walking out of the hospital before their care is complete.

    I’m an associate professor of emergency medicine who has spent a decade as an emergency physician working in Center City and South Philadelphia. I’ve spent most of that time directing projects to improve care for people who use drugs.

    Beginning in 2022, our team – a group of emergency and addiction physicians – began experimenting with new approaches to treating tranq dope withdrawal.

    We were able to reduce the likelihood of these patients leaving the hospital before treatment was complete by more than half – from 10% to just under 4%.

    We also reduced the severity of their suffering, lowering their withdrawal scores – or how they rate their pain and other symptoms – by more than half.

    Traditional treatments don’t work

    Before tranq dope, treating opioid withdrawal in the emergency department was relatively straightforward, with well-studied, conventional protocols.

    For patients without chronic pain, health care providers started buprenorphine, known by its brand name Suboxone, when patients showed signs of withdrawal.

    Buprenorphine works by partially, rather than fully, stimulating opioid receptors in the body. This subtle difference relieves symptoms of withdrawal but reduces the risk of overdose if patients continue to use other opioids. It quite literally saves lives.

    Tranq dope, however, created a much larger set of challenges.

    Fentanyl and other synthetic opioids are dozens to hundreds of times more powerful than heroin. Xylazine, meanwhile, adds symptoms of sedative withdrawal to the mix: restlessness, adrenaline activation and agitation.

    As synthetic opioids became pervasive in Philadelphia’s drug supply over the past decade, overdose deaths in the city tripled. Those numbers are beginning to decline, for reasons that remain unclear.

    Fear of withdrawal can even prevent people with serious medical conditions from going to the hospital.
    Jeff Fusco/The Conversation US, CC BY-ND

    Meanwhile, tranq users started to share buprenorphine horror stories. They refused the medication due to a phenomenon called “precipitated withdrawal.” Precipitated withdrawal is a condition in which taking buprenorphine paradoxically makes withdrawal symptoms worse, rather than improving them. Due to the severity of their symptoms, some patients who precipitate severely even require treatment in the intensive care unit.

    Furthermore, when patients did accept buprenorphine, their withdrawal symptoms were no longer being effectively controlled, even with very high doses. We were adrift.

    Patients demand discharge

    When people with severe substance use disorders are hospitalized, even compassionate staff members sometimes lose patience.

    Being confined to a stretcher in a loud, chaotic environment, in withdrawal, with prior traumatic health care experiences, can lead patients to act out. They might repeatedly hit call bells, use inappropriate language, make impulsive decisions or sneak drugs into the hospital.

    This creates a lot of stress for nurses and staff, and distracts from the care of others.

    So when patients demand to leave before treatments are complete, exhausted care teams often quickly acquiesce. Traditionally, this was termed leaving “against medical advice,” but is now called “patient-directed discharge.”

    Patient-directed discharge is associated with higher rates of mortality, permanent disability and rehospitalization.

    Rates of patient-directed discharge can be 10 to 50 times higher in people with an opioid use disorder compared with the general public.

    A cycle of mistrust can also form, where the expectation that a patient may leave again leads to a less engaged care team, which in turn can make patients more likely to leave.

    At staff meetings, some compared the challenges of caring for these individuals to those experienced in the hardest parts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    New approach needed

    Many physicians have been reticent to consider other options for treating opioid withdrawal. I believe there are two key reasons for this. One is the lack of Food and Drug Administration approval for alternative treatments. The other is that federal regulations consider addiction a behavioral rather than medical condition, effectively separating most doctors from the addiction care of these individuals.

    As fentanyl and xylazine became ubiquitous in Philadelphia’s street dope, local hospitals reported astronomical rates of patient-directed discharge among these patients. This was happening despite the best efforts of hospital staffs that are deeply experienced in conventional opioid withdrawal treatment.

    In 2021, an editorial in the Annals of Internal Medicine journal advocated for the use of short-acting opioids for some patients’ opioid withdrawal – which is already common practice in Canada. Short-acting opioids are medications doctors traditionally use to treat acute pain.

    Philadelphia hospitals started experimenting with using these previously verboten medications. That included our team at Jefferson Health.

    Overdose deaths in Philadelphia spiked as fentanyl and xylazine became more prevalent.
    Jeff Fusco/The Conversation US, CC BY-ND

    Oxycodone, hydromorphone and ketamine

    By using short-acting opioids such as oxycodone or hydromorphone, combined with a low-dose version of buprenorphine, we prevented precipitated withdrawal and treated opioid withdrawal and pain in our patients.

    The low-dose bupenorphine can be increased over time to steady doses. This shows patients that the medication is safe and provides them a bridge to long-term treatment.

    The short-acting opioids replace the opioids that their bodies are frantically searching for. They reduce their pain and misery, and are decreased when their symptoms are controlled.

    Patients with opioid use disorder will often do whatever they can to stay out of the hospital due to fear of withdrawal. Asking how withdrawal symptoms are managed, therefore, is often their first priority when hospitalized. We see this even when they have conditions that require complicated and time-sensitive treatments.

    Owing to the vast amounts of opioids many of our patients use, we also give them additional strong medications, or “adjunctive therapies,” to supplement the effects of the short-acting opioids and low-dose buprenorphine. One is ketamine, an anesthetic that affects nerve impulses and is increasingly being used to treat depression, post-traumatic stress discorder and substance use disorders.

    Ketamine is also an effective pain medication that can extend the effects of opioids and reduce the number of doses needed.

    We additionally add muscle relaxants – which work similarly to xylazine – along with nausea medications and IV fluids, to help give patients a chance at healing.

    Side effects and future problems

    In patients who received our medications, the risks of serious side effects were minimal. The few patients who suffered serious adverse effects had other acute medical problems that could have contributed to the side effects. Almost all the side effects we saw were mild and resolved on their own.

    As powerful synthetic opioids and other contaminants become pervasive in more U.S. cities, more emergency departments will need to figure out how to care for patients in withdrawal so that they don’t leave treatment.

    It is our hope that this work will inspire others to do a better job of providing relief to patients suffering from this complicated and severe condition.

    Kory London received funding from the City of Philadelphia to support the work related to caring for individuals with substance use disorder. He is on the board of the nonprofit Council of Southeast Pennsylvania, dedicated to helping those in need of behavioral health care and support.

    – ref. Philly hospitals test new strategy for ‘tranq dope’ withdrawal – and it keeps patients from walking out before their treatment is done – https://theconversation.com/philly-hospitals-test-new-strategy-for-tranq-dope-withdrawal-and-it-keeps-patients-from-walking-out-before-their-treatment-is-done-239915

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is Chabad-Lubavitch? A Jewish studies scholar explains

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Schneur Zalman Newfield, Associate Professor of Sociology and Jewish Studies, Hunter College

    Lubavitchers have put up leaflets, posters and even murals of Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson around the world, with many proclaiming him the messiah. Nizzan Cohen via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    If you live anywhere near New York – or anywhere in the world, really – you may have seen a picture of Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson. Yellow posters of the rabbi’s face are stuck to lampposts or streetlights: an elderly man with a long white beard and black hat.

    For tens of thousands of ultra-Orthodox Jews, Schneerson is simply “the rebbe”: the leader of the Chabad-Lubavitch movement, even though he died in 1994. The name “Chabad” is familiar to many Americans, but the actual beliefs of this Hasidic group rarely are.

    As someone who was raised in a Lubavitch community and became a scholar of sociology and Jewish studies, I am often asked what sets it apart from other Orthodox streams of Judaism.

    Mystic teachings, joyful prayer

    Hasidism began under the leadership of the 18th-century mystic and healer Israel ben Eliezer, known as the Baal Shem Tov. Instead of focusing on the Bible and Jewish law, the movement prioritized attaching oneself to God through joyful prayer and passionate devotion.

    The Lubavitch sect of Hasidism was founded in the late 1700s by Rabbi Schneur Zalman of Liadi, the author of the Tanya – a theological text and self-improvement manual still studied daily by Lubavitchers. For over a hundred years, the movement was based in the rural town of Lyubavichi, Russia, from which it derives its name.

    Lubavitch headquarters in Brooklyn, which many followers call ‘770.’
    Sagtkd/Wikimedia Commons

    Since 1940, however, Lubavitch has been based in Crown Heights, Brooklyn. The headquarters there at 770 Eastern Parkway are simply referred to as “770” by Lubavitchers the world over, who imbue the red brick building with mystical symbolism.

    Lubavitch, also known by the name “Chabad,” is one of the largest Hasidic groups today, with an estimated 90,000 members.

    Lubavitch shares many things in common with all streams of Orthodox Judaism, including a commitment to strictly abiding by “halacha” – Jewish law and customs. The group also shares a great deal with other ultra-Orthodox communities, such as opposition to providing their children with secular education.

    Yet there are key features of Lubavitch that distinguish it – particularly how much it engages with non-Orthodox Jews.

    The rebbe

    All Hasidic sects have a leader, a “rebbe,” who is believed to possess unique spiritual gifts and connect his followers to the divine. Still, Lubavitch is distinct in terms of the extent to which the rebbe is central to the lives of every single member of the community.

    In 1951, Schneerson accepted leadership of the Lubavitchers after the passing of his father-in-law and grew the movement exponentially until his passing in 1994. Rather than naming a successor, however, Lubavitchers have continued to regard Schneerson as “the rebbe.”

    With his piercing blue eyes, full white beard, black fedora and silk coat, images of Schneerson are ubiquitous among Lubavitchers. Photos and paintings of him adorn walls, key chains, clocks and charity boxes wherever they live.

    A baby clutches a photo of Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson during a holiday celebration in front of the Chabad Lubavitch headquarters in Brooklyn.
    AP Photo/Mark Lennihan

    While the rebbe was alive, his followers would ask him for advice and blessings regarding all spiritual matters, as well as questions about health, business and marriage. Since his passing, followers continue to seek his blessings by placing notes at his gravesite and searching his printed works for guidance.

    Even among Lubavitchers who have left the fold, many still feel attached to its leader.

    Jewish outreach

    One expression of Lubavitchers’ devotion is their commitment to creating Jewish outreach centers all over the world.

    The ethos of sharing Hasidic thought was present from the founding of the Lubavitch movement. This drive became much more developed, however, during and after the Holocaust and continued under Schneerson’s leadership.

    Today, Lubavitch has established Jewish outposts, called “Chabad Houses,” from Melbourne to Hong Kong and Buenos Aires to Cape Town. These emissaries endeavor to reach out to secular Jews and inspire them to become more religiously observant.

    Members of Chabad participate in a Fourth of July parade in Santa Monica, Calif.
    AP Photo/Richard Vogel

    The language surrounding Lubavitch outreach often has a militaristic flavor – for example, its youth movement is named the “Army of God”: Tzivos Ha-Shem, in Hebrew. However, outreach is rooted in the commandment to love one’s fellow Jew and a desire to help them enjoy the Jewish tradition. It is also motivated by a belief that these efforts will help fulfill the biblical prophecy of a Jewish messiah, who will usher in a time of global peace.

    These two motivations fortify the nearly 5,000 emissaries sent to far-flung communities around the world, notwithstanding profound obstacles. These include being separated from their families, who tend to live in established Hasidic communities, and being vulnerable to antisemitic attacks.

    Messianism

    The most distinct aspect of contemporary Lubavitch is its enthusiasm for the coming of the messiah and its assertion that Schneerson is that long-awaited messiah, despite his death.

    Messianic hopes and people claiming to be the messiah have appeared at various points throughout Jewish history, often during periods of crisis. In the wake of the devastation of the Holocaust, however, Schneerson made the idea of the messiah’s coming integral to every aspect of Jewish life.

    Eventually, most followers came to believe that Schneerson was the righteous redeemer sent by God to usher in the messianic age. While Schneerson did not embrace these proclamations, he insisted that through additional acts of goodness and kindness it was possible to bring about the messianic redemption.

    While some outsiders criticized this emphasis, especially claims about the rebbe, the situation became much more fraught after he passed away in 1994. In response to this trauma, a split developed in Lubavitch.

    Praying men leave notes seeking guidance and blessings at the grave site of Menachem Mendel Schneerson.
    Bentzi Sasson via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    One camp, composed largely of those involved in outreach work and members of long-standing Lubavitch families, argued Lubavitch should stop publicly talking about Schneerson being the messiah since it scared away outsiders. The other camp, largely composed of those who joined the community as adults, claimed that he was still the messiah and was about to return, and that it was vital to tell the world.

    To some other Jews, this belief seemed suspiciously close to Christian faith in the second coming of Jesus. Still, many Lubavitchers persist in their messianic beliefs.

    The future

    This issue still divides some Lubavitchers. Nonetheless, since Schneerson’s passing three decades ago, the movement has increased in size and strength.

    The group’s cohesiveness has been aided by creative uses of technology to foster a sense of the rebbe’s continued presence in their lives. For example, the Jewish Educational Media organization regularly produces videos that splice footage of his talks with current visuals to make him feel present in the moment. Lubavitchers have reinterpreted Hasidic texts to fit their current predicament, helping them feel grounded despite his physical absence.

    While the precise future of Lubavitch is unknown, the fact that it has managed to weather the storm of the rebbe’s passing and emerged stronger gives his followers hope for the future.

    Schneur Zalman Newfield does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is Chabad-Lubavitch? A Jewish studies scholar explains – https://theconversation.com/what-is-chabad-lubavitch-a-jewish-studies-scholar-explains-222218

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is Temporary Protected Status? A global migration expert why the US offers some foreign nationals temporary protection

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Karen Jacobsen, Henry J. Leir Chair in Global Migration, Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University

    Haitian students use mobile phones to record an exercise during an English class in Springfield, Ohio, on Sept. 13, 2024. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

    Former President Donald Trump and his running mate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance, have criticized the Biden administration’s decision to allow Haitian nationals who are in the U.S. to apply for permission to stay under a legal classification called Temporary Protected Status. Here is what this designation means and how it’s made:

    TPS permits foreign nationals who are already in the United States – even if they did not enter the country through an official or legal means – to remain for six, 12 or 18 months at a time if the situation in their home country is deemed too dangerous for them to return. Threats that prompt TPS designations include ongoing armed conflict, natural disasters, epidemics and other extraordinary and temporary conditions.

    The Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security designates a foreign country for TPS when conditions there meet requirements spelled out in federal law. Once the secretary determines that the foreign country is safe for its nationals to return, their protected status expires and people who have been granted it are expected to return to their home country.

    Congress created TPS as part of the Immigration Act of 1990. Since then, administrations have used it to protect thousands of people from dozens of countries. The first nations to be designated, in March 1991, were Kuwait, Lebanon and Liberia.

    As of March 2024, there were 863,880 people from 16 countries under Temporary Protected Status in the U.S. Another 486,418 people had initial or renewal applications pending. An estimated 316,000 people may also be eligible under two new extensions since that date.

    TPS beneficiaries may not be detained by federal officials over their immigration status or deported from the United States. They can obtain work permits and apply for authorization to travel outside the U.S. and return to it.

    People who receive TPS don’t automatically become legal permanent residents. But they can petition for an adjustment of their immigration status, such as applying for permanent residency, a student visa or asylum. Applying for a change of immigration status does not necessarily mean their application will be approved.

    Humanitarian measures

    TPS is not the only tool administrations can use to protect people from countries facing disaster or conflict.

    For example, a Haitian person currently living in the U.S. is eligible for TPS under a designation that lasts through Feb. 3, 2026. In contrast, a Haitian who travels through Mexico and applies for entry to the U.S. at the border is not likely to be admitted.

    However, there is a third possibility for Haitians, known as parole. The federal government can give certain groups permission to enter or remain in the U.S. if it finds “urgent humanitarian or significant public benefit reasons” for doing so.

    People who enter through parole programs must have an approved financial supporter in the U.S., undergo a robust security vetting and meet other eligibility criteria. They typically can stay for one to two years, and may apply for authorization to work.

    One current parole program is for people from Latin American countries that are TPS designates. The U.S. government can grant advance permission to enter the U.S. to up to 30,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans each month. People fleeing these countries – all of which have been designated for Temporary Protected Status – can seek authorization to travel from their homes to the U.S. for urgent humanitarian reasons, and then stay for a temporary period of parole for up to two years.

    Immigrant rights groups rally at the U.S. Capitol following a federal court ruling that threatened the legal standing of thousands with Temporary Protected Status, Sept. 15, 2020.
    Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

    I’ve studied global migration and asylum policy for 25 years. I see both TPS and parole as legal and carefully considered ways to support people from countries experiencing wrenching conflict, disorder and disaster who are seeking safety in the U.S. Doing away with these programs, as Trump sought to do during his term in office, would make it extremely difficult for people in great danger to escape.

    Neither TPS nor parole programs are automatic roads to citizenship or permanent residence. They are ways to provide humanitarian assistance to people in appalling circumstances, such as rampant gang violence in Haiti and economic hardship and political repression in Venezuela and Nicaragua.

    Certainly, cities need more resources to support large numbers of immigrants. But offering temporary protection to people whose home countries are not safe places to live is a long-standing – and, in my view, crucial – element of U.S. immigration policy.

    Karen Jacobsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is Temporary Protected Status? A global migration expert why the US offers some foreign nationals temporary protection – https://theconversation.com/what-is-temporary-protected-status-a-global-migration-expert-why-the-us-offers-some-foreign-nationals-temporary-protection-240525

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Coastal cities have a hidden vulnerability to storm-surge and tidal flooding − entirely caused by humans

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Philip M. Orton, Research Associate Professor in Ocean Engineering, Stevens Institute of Technology

    A consequence of dredging deep channels is that water also enters more easily with tides and storm surge. Google Earth

    Centuries ago, estuaries around the world were teeming with birds and turbulent with schools of fish, their marshlands and endless tracts of channels melting into the gray-blue horizon.

    Fast-forward to today, and in estuaries such as New York Harbor, San Francisco Bay and Miami’s Biscayne Bay – areas where rivers meet the sea – 80% to 90% of this habitat has been built over.

    The result has been the environmental collapse of estuary habitats and the loss of buffer zones that helped protect cities from storm surge and sea-level rise. But the damage isn’t just what’s visible on land.

    Below the surface of many of the remaining waterways, another form of urbanization has been slowly increasing the vulnerability of coastlines to extreme storms and sea-level rise: Vast dredging and engineering projects have more than doubled the depths of shipping channels since the 19th century.

    Some of these oceanic highways enable huge container ships, with drafts of 50 feet below the waterline and lengths of nearly a quarter mile, to glide into formerly shallow areas. An example is New Jersey’s Newark Bay, which was as little as 10 feet (3 meters) deep in the 1840s but is 50 feet (15 meters) deep today.

    A consequence of dredging deep channels is that water also enters and exits the estuaries more easily with each tide or storm. In these dredged channels, the natural resistance to flow created by a rough and shallow channel bottom is reduced. With less friction, that can lead to larger high tides and storm surge.

    As coastal engineers and oceanographers, we study coastal ocean physics and storm surge. There are solutions to the problems “estuary urbanization” is causing, if people are willing to accept some trade-offs.

    An unintended side effect of dredging

    The effects of dredging are most visible in the daily tides, which have grown larger over the past century in many estuaries and aggravated nuisance flooding in many cities, as our research shows.

    Tide range – the average variation between high and low tide – has doubled in multiple estuaries and changed significantly in others. As a result, high-tide levels are often rising faster than sea-level rise, worsening its consequences.

    The most common culprit for these larger tides is estuary urbanization.

    For example, in Miami, where the tide range has almost doubled, a major contributor is the construction and dredging of a nearly 50-foot-deep (15 meter), 500-foot-wide (150 meter) harbor entrance channel beginning in the early 20th century.

    In New York City, some neighborhoods in southern Queens see 15 minor tidal floods per year today. Computer modeling shows that these floods are caused in about equal measure by sea-level rise and landscape alterations, including dredging and wetland reclamation projects that fill in wetlands to build industrial sites, airports and neighborhoods.

    Evidence and computer modeling show that any hurricane storm surge affecting parts of New York City, Jacksonville, Wilmington, Philadelphia, Southeast Florida and Southwest Louisiana, among other locations, will likely produce higher water levels due to estuary urbanization, potentially causing more damage in unprotected regions.

    These costs have gone largely unnoticed, since changes have occurred gradually over the past 150 years. But as sea-level rise and turbo-charged storms increase flooding frequency and severity, the problem is becoming more visible.

    Building solutions to the flooding problem

    In response to rising sea levels, a different form of estuary urbanization is attracting new attention as a possible solution.

    Gated storm-surge barriers or tide gates are being built across estuaries or their inlets so they can be closed off during storm-surge events. Some examples include barriers for New Orleans; London; Venice, Italy; and the Netherlands. Such barriers are increasingly being proposed alongside levee systems for coastal protection of urbanized estuary shorelines.

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers recently recommended surge barriers for 11 additional estuaries, including near Miami, Jamaica Bay in Queens and Galveston, Texas.

    Surge barriers are not long-term solutions to flooding driven by sea-level rise, and their negative impacts remain poorly understood.

    Venice’s rising flood wall includes 58 gates, each about the size of two tennis courts, that rise to block the inlet from storm surge.

    Natural solutions

    Wetlands and mangroves have also emerged as a popular nature-based solution.

    Communities and government funding have focused on attempts to restore or create new wetlands as buffers in shoreline areas. But this solution is ineffective for flood protection in most harbor cities, such as New York, due to the lack of available space.

    A storm surge crossing over a mile of marsh can be reduced by several inches, depending on the site’s characteristics. But typical urban estuary waterfronts have only tens of feet of open space to work with, if that much. In a narrow space, the best that vegetation can do is reduce wave action, which often isn’t the the most pressing problem for cities on estuaries that are typically sheltered from wind-driven storm waves.

    As a result, engineered wetlands, while attractive, may be ineffective, especially if trends in ship sizes and estuarine urbanization continues.

    Better ways to put nature back to work

    Our research reveals an opportunity for scientists, engineers and broader society to think bigger – to consider a more comprehensive reshaping and restoration of the natural features of estuaries that once mitigated or absorbed flooding.

    Possible solutions include halting the maintenance dredging of underutilized shipping channels, gradually retreating from vulnerable – and now often waterlogged – landfill industrial sites and neighborhoods, and restoring these larger expanses to wetlands.

    These approaches can sharply reduce flooding and provide years of protection against sea-level rise. Restoration to historical channel and wetland configurations, however, is rarely given serious consideration in coastal storm risk management studies because of the perceived economic cost, but also because the cumulative effect of deeper channel depths is often unrecognized.

    Renaturing urbanized estuaries in these ways could be paired with buyout programs to also reclaim the floodplain, reducing risk in more sustainable ways. Or it could be paired with seawalls to protect existing neighborhoods in a more ecologically beneficial way. These approaches should be considered as alternatives to further urbanizing our cities’ few remaining natural areas – their estuaries.

    Philip M. Orton receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, pertaining to the assessment of coastal flooding from storms, high tides, sea level rise and estuary urbanization.

    Stefan Talke receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, the California Department of Transportation, Pacific Northwest National Labs, and the California Delta Stewardship Council. The research pertains to the effect of sea-level rise and anthropogenic change on tides and floods in the past, present, and future.

    – ref. Coastal cities have a hidden vulnerability to storm-surge and tidal flooding − entirely caused by humans – https://theconversation.com/coastal-cities-have-a-hidden-vulnerability-to-storm-surge-and-tidal-flooding-entirely-caused-by-humans-231374

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Presidential elections provide opportunities to teach about power, proportions and percentages

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Liza Bondurant, Associate Professor of Secondary Math Education, Mississippi State University

    The complex voting system in the U.S. requires a sophisticated understanding of math. bamlou/DigitalVision Vectors

    To American voters, the process of electing a president and other officials may be difficult to explain and understand. For America’s math teachers, the system represents a gold mine for real-life lessons on ratios, statistics and data.

    And by basing the lessons on elections, teachers can help put students on the path to becoming informed and engaged voters later in life, according to a 2020 survey of 2,232 young adults ages 18-21.

    Americans don’t vote directly for the president. Instead, a group of electors vote for the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state. In most states, whoever wins the most votes wins all the state’s electors, or “electoral votes.”

    Not all states have the same number of electors. Each state starts with two electoral votes, based on the two U.S. senators in each state. States receive additional electors based on the number of representatives they have in the House of Representatives, which depends on a state’s population. The number of representatives in the House, however, has been set at 435 since 1929, despite a huge and varied increase in the population. This means the number of people represented by each member of the U.S. House – the ratio of people to representative – varies considerably, as shown in a table from the U.S. Census Bureau.

    Armed with this background, math teachers can use the census data on population and ratios to teach students the following math – and voting – topics.

    Topic 1: Ratio

    To calculate a state’s representative ratio, the number of people for every one representative, divide the population by the number of the state’s representatives in the U.S. House. In 2020, for example, Montana had two congressional representatives and a population of 1,085,407. The representative ratio was 542,704:1 – 1,085,407 divided by 2 – or 542,704 residents for each representative.

    Topic 2: Minimum and maximum

    In any set of numbers, the minimum is the smallest number in the set and the maximum is the largest number. For example, using the representative ratios from the 2020 census data, Montana’s ratio of 542,704:1 is the smallest – the minimum – and Delaware’s ratio of 990,837:1 is the largest, or the maximum.

    Topic 3: The shape, center and spread of data

    Shape means how data, such as the ratios of residents to representatives, looks on a chart or graph. Teachers can use a histogram, a kind of graph used to illustrate how data is distributed: evenly, skewed to one side, or with some numbers as outliers, at a distance from the other numbers.

    The ratios can also be used to explain how to find the “center” of data, its mean or median. The mean is the average, found by adding all the numbers in the set and dividing by how many there are. For example, adding the ratios for all the states and dividing by 50. The median is the middle number when all numbers are placed in order from minimum to maximum. Simple spreadsheet formulas are available online to help students find both.

    Students can examine ratios of residents to representatives for all 50 states.
    iofoto via Getty Images

    The “spread” of a set of numbers tells how much the numbers are different from the center. One measure of spread is called the range, which is the difference between the maximum and the minimum. For example, the range in representative ratios among the states is 448,133: the maximum, Delaware’s 990,837, minus the minimum, Montana’s 542,704.

    When students understand how ratios – and elections – work, teachers can ask questions such as, “Montana has fewer people per representative than Delaware. Where would your vote count more?” Answer: Montana, because fewer people per representative means each vote counts more.

    Topic 4: Gerrymandering

    Each state is divided into districts; residents of each district vote for their state and federal representatives. Gerrymandering occurs when the borders of voting districts are drawn to favor one party at the expense of another. The political party in power often draws these district lines to make it easier for that party to win in the future.

    Imagine a state has 10 representatives, and Party X gets 60% of the votes. With 60% of the votes, it seems fair that Party X should get 6 of the state’s 10 seats for representatives.

    There is no rule that says the percentage of votes cast for a party in a state has to line up with the number of seats the party wins. And Party X wants more. To keep control of as many seats as possible, the politicians in Party X would like to manipulate – or gerrymander – each of 10 districts to make sure it would win 60% of the vote in each. With a majority in each district, Party X would win all 10 seats. Gerrymandering to this extreme is not always possible because districts must consist of adjoining areas, and voters who favor one party might not live in areas that can be easily connected.

    Lessons on gerrymandering can vary by grade level. For example, elementary students can get hands-on experience manipulating borders with the Julia Robinson Mathematics Festival “puzzles” tool. The puzzle, which can be tied to lessons about shapes, percents and area, allows children to change boundaries on a graph to increase or decrease the number of yellow or green squares – representing voters – in each “district.” There are fewer green squares than yellow squares in each puzzle. Students win when they successfully gerrymander, changing the borders so the green voters are in the majority in most, or all, of the districts.

    High school students, who already understand the basics of gerrymandering, can use a tool called Districtr to draw real voting districts. The site uses actual data about where voters live and which political party won in which area. Using this tool, students cannot only try to gerrymander districts, they can also try to create districts that are more fairly balanced. After trying to draw their own “fair” districts, students might be interested in some states’ use of independent groups to draw fairer district lines.

    By using elections as a learning tool, students can gain a better understanding of ratios, means and range, and they might also start thinking about what they can do to improve the process.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Presidential elections provide opportunities to teach about power, proportions and percentages – https://theconversation.com/presidential-elections-provide-opportunities-to-teach-about-power-proportions-and-percentages-238152

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to be a boss at giving performance reviews

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kip Holderness, Associate Professor of Forensic and Fraud Examination and Accounting, West Virginia University

    When you’re a manager, delivering feedback can feel like walking a tightrope. Whether you’re praising an employee’s accomplishments or addressing a shortfall, how you communicate can have a big impact on how your words are received and acted upon.

    As business school professors, we’ve done research into how to make the assessment process as painless as possible. And we’ve found three essential strategies for delivering feedback that’s both effective and constructive.

    Using these strategies will help you elevate the feedback process, fostering a more positive and productive work environment:

    1. Keep your emotions out of it

    Have you ever noticed that saying things like “I’m disappointed” or “I’m proud of you” can change a feedback conversation completely? That’s because the language you use – particularly emotionally charged words – can shift how employees interpret the feedback.

    Perhaps unsurprisingly, our research shows that using negative emotional language – like “I’m disappointed” – can reduce employee motivation and effort. This happens because employees shift their focus away from their performance and toward how you, the manager, see them as a person.

    At the same time, using positive emotional language such as “I’m pleased” can sometimes backfire. That’s because it can make employees feel complacent.

    The key takeaway here is that using emotionally neutral language, especially when giving negative feedback, helps employees stay focused on their tasks without getting sidetracked by what the feedback says about them personally.

    Instead of saying, “I’m disappointed with your sales numbers,” try a more neutral approach, like “The sales numbers are below the target we set. Let’s discuss some strategies for improvement.”

    By keeping a lid on the emotions in your language, you keep the conversation focused on performance. That helps employees better understand what they need to work on, without the additional emotional burden.

    2. Let workers customize their experience

    Not all employees want the same type of feedback, and that’s perfectly OK. Giving employees the ability to choose the type and frequency of evaluations can boost performance.

    Workers who have a say in how often they are evaluated are more likely to use the process productively and feel less micromanaged, our research has found.

    Consider creating a feedback menu where employees can select areas for assessment, such as communication skills, leadership development or project management. An additional strategy is to let workers set the frequency of feedback sessions – whether they be weekly check-ins or more comprehensive quarterly reviews.

    When employees have ownership over the evaluation they receive, they are more open to it, perceive it as more valuable and are more likely to act on it.

    3. Choose the right messenger

    Who delivers the feedback can be just as important as the information itself. Our research has shown that some employees respond better to feedback from their peers, while others respond better when it’s from a manager.

    Specifically, we found that people with a greater sense of entitlement do better with feedback from a supervisor, while less entitled people respond better to peer feedback.

    That’s why it can be a good idea to use personality profiles to determine the best messenger for feedback. For instance, consider situations where a co-worker’s feedback could be reasonably delivered and from whom, like a peer mentor or team lead.

    By aligning the feedback source with the content and context, you ensure that the feedback resonates more deeply and is perceived as constructive rather than critical.

    Applying the principles in real life

    Managers may find that using these three strategies might require adjusting their current feedback approach, but the benefits are worth it. Here’s a quick example of how to apply these strategies:

    Imagine you have an employee, Mark, whose performance has recently dropped. In your feedback conversation, you might start with a neutral statement like “Mark, I’ve noticed that your recent projects have been missing their deadlines. Let’s discuss why this might be happening.” This language will help Mark focus on the issue without taking it as a personal attack.

    Next, offer Mark the option to set up regular biweekly check-ins or monthly reviews to see what works best for him. Finally, if Mark has a strong rapport with a team member who excels at time management, consider arranging a peer feedback session where they can share tips and strategies.

    The result? Mark feels supported rather than scrutinized, and the feedback is framed as an opportunity for growth rather than a reprimand.

    As researchers who’ve studied management communication and feedback strategies for years, we know that these approaches can transform the way people interact with their teams. By being intentional about giving feedback, managers can create environments where employees feel respected, valued and motivated to succeed.

    Kip Holderness has received funding in the past from the Institute of Management Accountants and the Association of Certified Fraud Examiners.

    Kari Olsen received funding from the Institute of Management Accountants Research Foundation.

    Todd Thornock has received funding from the Institute of Management Accountants Research Foundation.

    – ref. How to be a boss at giving performance reviews – https://theconversation.com/how-to-be-a-boss-at-giving-performance-reviews-233428

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia donates 49 Abrams tanks to Ukraine

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Defence Department Supplied Photo

    The Albanese government is giving 49 M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, despite earlier this year apparently playing down the prospect of the donation.

    The latest Australian package is worth A$245 million. It brings the total Australian military aid to Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022 to A$1.3 billion, and overall Australian support to A$1.5 billion.

    When asked about a possible gift of the tanks in February, Defence Minister Richard Marles said it was “not on the agenda”.

    Government sources say donating the tanks required US approval since Australia had purchased them from Washington, so there had been a process to go through.

    Minister for Defence Industry and Capability Delivery Pat Conroy, who is on his way to the NATO defence ministers meeting in Brussels, announced the decision in London. In Brussels, Conroy will meet with the Ukraine defence minister.

    Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea form the “Indo-Pacific Four” group of non-NATO countries attending the meeting.

    The 49 tanks are near the end of their life, so a small number will have to be repaired before they are delivered. Alternatively, they could be used as spare parts if Ukraine wants them delivered more quickly. Ukraine will decide which option to pursue.

    The Australian army is retaining a handful of the M1A1 Abrams to help the transition to the M1A2 fleet of tanks.

    Conroy said: “We stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukraine in their fight against Russia’s illegal invasion. These tanks will deliver more firepower and mobility to the Ukrainian armed forces, and complement the support provided by our partners for Ukraine”.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Australia donates 49 Abrams tanks to Ukraine – https://theconversation.com/australia-donates-49-abrams-tanks-to-ukraine-241485

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Pobol y Cwm: BBC’s longest running TV soap celebrates 50 years on air

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jamie Medhurst, Professor of Film and Media, Aberystwyth University

    “We had a special kind of audience in mind: the Welsh who have never read Barn or Y Faner (two popular Welsh-language publications written in a scholarly tone) but live their lives every day in the natural sound of the Welsh language.” That’s how dramatist Gwenlyn Parry described the target audience of the new BBC Wales soap opera, Pobol y Cwm, which was broadcast for the first time 50 years ago ago, on October 16 1974.

    Pobol y Cwm – which means “people of the valley” – is set in the fictional village of Cwmderi, in the Gwendraeth valley, south-west Wales. It was originally filmed at Broadway Studios in Cardiff, then on a purpose-built lot at BBC Broadcasting House, also in the Welsh capital. But since 2011, the programme has been mainly filmed at the BBC’s drama studios at Roath Lock in Cardiff Bay.

    BBC Wales’ television service had been in existence for ten years by the time the series was broadcast. Television producer John Hefin felt there was a need for a long drama series in Welsh, which would meet the needs of audiences in the same way as Coronation Street had been doing on ITV since 1960.

    Hefin and Parry’s vision was evident. In planning meetings for the series, it was noted that “the main aim of the series is pure entertainment and from a mathematical analysis it will require 70% easy, humorous lightness, and 30% personal and social problems”.

    Other guidelines for the series were clear from the start – no preaching about the state of the Welsh language, the evils of drugs, the dangers of sex, or theological dogma. The main aim was to “develop a story line full of seemingly insignificant events but conveying a believable whole of Welsh village life”.

    The Welsh language soap first began on BBC One Wales in October 1974 before moving to S4C in 1982, where it continues to this day.

    Soap history

    Soap operas can be traced back to the early days of US radio, when drama series were sponsored by washing powder manufacturers, hence the word “soap”. The BBC launched drama series, or soap operas, on the radio after the end of the second world war. Examples include Mrs Dale’s Diary in 1948 and, of course, The Archers in 1951.

    But audiences had to wait until 1954 until the first soap opera was launched on the BBC’s television service, The Grove Family. But the life of this series was short-lived, ending in 1957.

    In December 1960, ITV Granada launched Coronation Street, a series about everyday street life in the Manchester area. It soon became extremely popular among viewers across Britain. The appeal of the series was in its simplicity. It focused on the normal lives of working class people. The plot was derived from the setting and personalities, especially the strong female characters.

    Tony Warren was the man who sold the idea of Coronation Street to the Granada company. He realised, at the end of the 1950s, that the way of life in that part of England was changing. Warren wanted to capture and preserve traditional spirit and show it to the rest of the country.

    I wonder, then, when proposing an idea for a soap opera to the BBC at the beginning of the 1970s, whether Hefin and Parry had the same feeling. The Wales of the time was changing, after all. The 1971 census showed that the Welsh language was under siege.

    It was felt by many within the BBC that a series reflecting old Welsh values was needed. And yet it also needed to be contemporary, with an element of realism. This is the trick for successful soap opera producers – the series must be “real” enough so that people can believe in the characters, and can identify with them in times of joy and sadness.

    Pobol y Cwm was a success from the outset, and that continued throughout the 1970s and 1980s. When musician John Lennon died in December 1980, a film about the Beatles was broadcast on BBC Wales as a tribute instead of Pobol y Cwm. It resulted in hundreds of loyal soap opera viewers flooding the switchboard of Broadcasting House in Cardiff with complaints.

    The BBC also received complaints that there were too many scenes taking place in the pub because this was not a “Welsh” thing to do. And yet, according to Parry, there were no complaints when a scene was shown with one of the main characters, Reg Harries, having an affair with the schoolmaster’s wife in the early 1980s.

    Famous faces

    Pobol y Cwm has nurtured the talent of several actors who have become more widely known. Among them Ioan Gruffudd, Iwan Rheon and Alexandra Roach. And several other celebrities have made cameo appearances in the series over the years, including actor Michael Sheen, presenter Michael Aspel and wrestler Giant Haystacks.

    In an article in the Welsh newspaper Y Cymro in 1975, Parry said: “The aim was to produce stuff that a natural Welsh person would watch, not because it was in Welsh, but because it was entertaining. The kind of stuff that will be needed to draw viewers to the fourth channel when it comes.”

    Still produced by BBC Wales, the series moved to Wales’ new fourth channel, S4C, in 1982 and the viewers followed. It remains among the channel’s most popular programmes.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Jamie Medhurst has received funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council, the British Academy, and the Leverhulme Trust.

    – ref. Pobol y Cwm: BBC’s longest running TV soap celebrates 50 years on air – https://theconversation.com/pobol-y-cwm-bbcs-longest-running-tv-soap-celebrates-50-years-on-air-241390

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Vive L’impressionnisme! at the Van Gogh Museum: a compelling, eco-conscious celebration of impressionism

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Frances Fowle, Personal Chair of Nineteenth-Century Art, History of Art, University of Edinburgh

    Despite its corny title, Vive L’Impressionnisme!, which recently opened at the Van Gogh Museum in Amsterdam, is well worth seeing. Marking the 150th anniversary of the first impressionist exhibition, the show tells the story of how one of the movement’s founders, Claude Monet, and his contemporaries were supported by a few enlightened Dutch collectors and their pictures absorbed into Dutch institutions.

    It brings together numerous works that are rarely, if ever, seen together, assembled from ten museums and seven private collections across the Netherlands. The result is a fascinating reflection of Dutch taste over the past century and a half.

    Vive L’Impressionnisme! is cleverly curated. The exhibition is arranged thematically, with landscapes on the first floor and modern life paintings on the upper level. The potential monotony of a continuous hang on a long wall is avoided by the introduction of sculpture, as well as aesthetic “ensembles” of paintings or works on paper.

    Upstairs, the normally cavernous exhibition space is divided into discrete rooms, in order to allow the visitor a more intimate viewing experience. Among the most remarkable aspects of the show is the decision to display paintings, sculpture and works on paper side-by-side. It’s a democratisation of art that mimics the way the impressionists themselves exhibited their work.

    On one wall you can see four states of Camille Pissarro’s etching The Old Cottage (1879), three of which were exhibited at the fifth impressionist exhibition in 1880. In each successive state, Pissarro observes the way in which the cottage and surrounding landscape are affected by the changing light and atmosphere, anticipating Monet’s later series paintings. In both oil painting and printmaking, these artists privileged experimental techniques and the analysis of light and colour over academic finish.

    In the second half of the 19th century, Dutch collectors and critics were more attuned to the overcast skies and earthy tones of the local Hague School painters than to the broken brushwork and high-keyed palette of impressionism. The new art was dismissed by critics as the “ravings of madmen, drunks and children”.

    Encouraged by his brother Vincent, Theo van Gogh’s efforts to sell impressionist art via the Goupil Gallery in the Hague were sadly thwarted. However, he did influence his wealthy brother-in-law, Andries Bonger, who became the first Dutch collector to develop a taste for the work of Paul Cézanne. Dutch lawyer Cornelis Hoogendijk also acquired around 25 Cézanne works before 1900, while another pioneer collector, Helene Kröller-Müller, specialised in the work of Van Gogh as well as the impressionists.



    Read more:
    Van Gogh Museum at 50: Vincent van Gogh and the art market – a brief history

    As the exhibition unfolds, visitors learn that, while Monet’s landscapes were greatly admired by the Dutch, the figurative work of Edgar Degas was less appreciated.

    Monet, a pupil of the Dutch artist Johan Jongkind, travelled more than once to the Netherlands. In 1871, he painted the Windmills Near Zaandam on an overcast day, and was delighted to make a sale. His Portrait of Miss Guurtje van de Stadt was acquired by a wealthy timber merchant and became the first impressionist work to enter a Dutch private collection. Returning for a last visit in 1886, Monet painted the more strident Tulip Fields Near the Hague, this time clearly with an eye for the market.

    Early acquisitions

    The first impressionist work to enter a public collection in the Netherlands was, perhaps unsurprisingly, another work by Monet. La Corniche Near Monaco (1884) was donated to the Rijksmuseum in 1900 by Baroness Van Lynden-Van Pallandt.

    Painted at Cap Martin on the French Riviera, it is remarkable for the bold orange scar of road that bisects the canvas, leading the eye towards the brooding blue-and-violet cliffs in the distance. This warm Mediterranean scene is flanked by two Monet canvases evoking the cooler atmosphere of the Normandy coast: Cliffs Near Pourville (1882) and Fisherman’s Cottage, Varengeville (1882).

    While Monet’s paintings are well-represented in the exhibition, along with oils by Pissarro, Cézanne, Pierre-Auguste Renoir, Alfred Sisley, Gustave Caillebotte and others, some artists are represented only by works on paper. Astonishingly not a single oil painting by Degas has found itself into a Dutch collection, either private or public. Édouard Manet, too, is virtually absent from the exhibition.

    Female artists were predictably underappreciated, or perhaps unavailable on the market. In recent years, the Van Gogh Museum and other Dutch institutions have tried to rectify that imbalance, though the market price for impressionism continues to rise, making new aquisitions a challenge.

    The exhibition includes recent purchases of works by pioneering female impressionist painters Berthe Morisot and Mary Cassatt. And there are also several gems from private collections, such as an exquisite Little Bowl with Parsley by Eva Gonzalès and decorative plates by Marie Bracquemond.

    The exhibition is aesthetically beautiful and intellectually compelling. It also delivers a sound environmental message, demonstrating that it is possible to create world-class exhibitions without flying works of art across the globe.

    Those pictures that were once in Dutch hands but later left the country are reproduced virtually, and lamented in the final section of the exhibition, titled Boulevard of Broken Promises. It provides a fascinating and thought-provoking coda to the show.

    Vive L’impressionnisme! Masterpieces from Dutch Collections will be on show at the Van Gogh Museum, Amsterdam until January 26 2025.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Frances Fowle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Vive L’impressionnisme! at the Van Gogh Museum: a compelling, eco-conscious celebration of impressionism – https://theconversation.com/vive-limpressionnisme-at-the-van-gogh-museum-a-compelling-eco-conscious-celebration-of-impressionism-241395

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: High-potency cannabis use leaves a distinct mark on DNA – new research

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Marta Di Forti, Clinician Scientist MRC Research Fellow, King’s College London

    People who use cannabis with THC of 10% or more are five times more likely to develop a psychotic disorder compared to those who don’t use the drug. Canna Obscura/ Shutterstock

    Cannabis is one of the most commonly used drugs in the world. Yet there’s still much we don’t know about it and what effects it has on the brain – including why cannabis triggers psychosis in some people who use the drug. But our recent study has just brought us closer to understanding the biological impact of high-potency cannabis use.

    Published in the journal Molecular Psychiatry, our study demonstrates that high-potency cannabis leaves a distinct mark on DNA. We also found that these DNA changes were different in people experiencing their first episode of psychosis compared to users who’d never experienced psychosis. This suggests looking at how cannabis use modifies DNA could help identify those most at risk of developing psychosis.

    The amount of THC (Delta-9_tetrahydrocannabinol), the main ingredient in cannabis that makes people feel “high”, has been steadily increasing since the 1990s in the UK and US. In Colorado, where the drug is legal, it’s possible to buy cannabis with 90% THC. While THC is one of over 144 other chemicals found in the cannabis plant, it’s the primary compound used to estimate the potency of cannabis.

    Many studies have shown that the greater the THC concentration, the stronger the effects on the user. For example, research has found that people who use high-potency cannabis (with THC of 10% or more) daily are five times more likely to develop a psychotic disorder compared to people who have never used cannabis.

    Psychotic disorders associated with daily use of high-potency cannabis often manifest through a range of symptoms. These can include auditory hallucinations (hearing voices that others cannot hear), delusions of persecution (feeling the target of a conspiracy without evidence) and paranoia (perceiving the environment as hostile and interpreting interactions suspiciously). These are all very distressing and disabling experiences.



    Read more:
    Cannabis: how it affects our cognition and psychology – new research

    Our study aimed the explore the mark that current cannabis use leaves on the DNA. We also wanted to understand if this mark is specific to high-potency cannabis use – and if this might help to identify those users at greater risk of experiencing psychosis.

    To do this, we examined the effects of cannabis use on an molecular process called DNA methylation. DNA methylation is a chemical process that regulates gene activity by turning genes on or off and controlling how genes are expressed without changing the structure of the DNA itself. DNA methylation is just one of the many mechanisms that regulate gene activity and are part of an important biological process known as epigenetics. Epigenetics underpin the interplay between our environment, the lifestyle choices we make (such as using cannabis or exercising) and our physical and mental health.

    While previous studies have investigated the impact of lifetime cannabis use on DNA methylation, they haven’t explored what effect regular use of different cannabis potencies has on this process. Nor have they explored how this affects with people who have psychosis.

    Our study combined data from two large first case-control studies: the Genetic and Psychosis study, which was conducted in south London, and the EU-GEI study, which included participants from England, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain and Brazil. Both of these studies collected data on people experiencing their first episode of psychosis and participants who had no health problems and represented the local population.

    High-potency cannabis use alters DNA methylation in genes related to energy and immune system functions.
    Oleksandrum/ Shutterstock

    In total, we looked at 239 people who were experiencing their first episode of psychosis and 443 healthy volunteers. Around 65% of participants were male. Participants ranged in age 16-72. All participants provided information on their cannabis use, as well as DNA samples from their blood.

    Around 38% of participants were using cannabis more than once a week. Of those who had used cannabis, the majority had been using high-potency cannabis more than once a week – and had started when they were around 16 years old.

    Analyses of DNA methylation were then performed across multiple parts of the whole genome. The analysis took into account the potential impact of several biological and environmental confounders that may have affected the results – such as age, gender, ethnicity, tobacco smoking and the cellular makeup of each blood sample.

    DNA signature

    Our findings revealed that using high-potency cannabis alters DNA methylation – particularly in genes related to energy and immune system functions. This was true for participants who had used high-potency cannabis. However, people who had experienced psychosis had a different signature of alteration in their DNA.

    These epigenetic changes show how external factors (like drug use) can alter how genes work. Very importantly, these changes were not explained by tobacco – which is usually mixed into joints by many cannabis users, and is known to alter DNA methylation.

    This finding also highlights epigenetic changes as a potential link between high-potency cannabis and psychosis. DNA methylation, which bridges the gap between genetics and environmental factors, is a key mechanism that allows external influences (such as substance use) to impact gene activity. By studying epigenetic changes, researchers may be able to develop a greater understanding on how cannabis use – particularly high-potency types – can influence specific biological pathways. This may in turn help us understand why some cannabis users are at increased risk of psychosis.

    We hope that our findings will help scientists to better understand how cannabis use can affect the body’s biology. Future research should now investigate whether the DNA methylation patterns associated with cannabis use can serve as biomarkers to identify users at higher risk of developing psychosis. This could lead to more targeted prevention strategies and inform safer cannabis use practices.

    Emma Dempster receives funding from MRC, NIHR, ARUK.

    Marta Di Forti does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. High-potency cannabis use leaves a distinct mark on DNA – new research – https://theconversation.com/high-potency-cannabis-use-leaves-a-distinct-mark-on-dna-new-research-241384

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The ‘bully cats’ bred to resemble American bully dogs and how fashion is creating mutant pet breeds

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Grace Carroll, Lecturer in Animal Behaviour and Welfare, School of Psychology, Queen’s University Belfast

    Sphynx cats were used to create the bully cat mutant. New Africa/Shutterstock

    Pedigree cat breeding has long had its controversies but a new trend for cats bred to look like American bully XL dogs could be one of the most worrying fads yet.

    So-called “bully cats” originated in the US and are a result of mutant breeding. Unlike pedigree breeding, which focuses on keeping animals purebred, mutant breeding involves intentionally combining genetic mutations to create cats with a specific look. In this case, they mix the gene that causes hairlessness in sphynx cats with the gene responsible for the short legs of munchkin cats, making bully cats a munchkin-sphynx cross.

    These cats share a close resemblance to bully dogs, a group of breeds characterised by a solid build, wide body and short coat. American XL bully dogs were banned in the UK in 2023. Recently, bully cats have made their way to the UK, where social media accounts promoting this new mutant breed have emerged.

    YouTube users criticised this video for “making it normal” to breed animals with genetic health problems.

    According to Marjan van Hagen and Jeffrey de Gier, animal welfare and reproduction experts at Utrecht University in The Netherlands, these mutations can have serious health consequences for the cats and limit their freedom of movement. Kittens already have a limited ability to regulate their body temperature and this is made even more difficult by hairlessness and makes them more suspectible to respiratory infections.

    A lack of fur can also lead to sunburn and skin cancer in hairless cats. Like the sphynx, bully cats also lack whiskers, which cats depend on for communication, navigating their environment and gauging spatial dimensions.

    Short-legged cats also face problems. Short legs limit their ability to jump, can put cats at a disadvantage in fights and can lead to painful health conditions. Although breeders claim that bully cats are healthy and long-lived, it’s still too early to determine their long-term health and welfare.

    Some breeders also say they are screening the cats they breed from for conditions such as heart disease. This can help prevent health problems, but it can’t overcome all of the health and welfare issues with mutant breeding.

    A May 2024 study by veterinary epidemiologist Kendy Tzu-Yun Teng and colleagues assessed annual life expectancy in UK cats and found that the average cat lives nearly 12 years, but sphynx cats have the shortest lifespan — just 6.7 years. Bully cats, being both hairless and short-legged, may face twice the number of challenges encountered by sphynx and munchkin breeds.

    In the wild, unrelated species that face comparable environmental challenges often develop similar traits, a process known as “convergent evolution”. Despite coming from different evolutionary paths, these species evolve to look and behave in similar ways.

    Take the sugar glider from Australia, for example. It looks and behaves much like the US flying squirrel, yet one is a marsupial and one is a mammal. Both animals faced the problem of how to move efficiently in a forest canopy, and evolved the same solution.

    Sugar gliders are not related to flying squirrels.
    I Wayan Sumatika/Shutterstock

    In a similar way, many domesticated animals share common traits, collectively known as “domestication syndrome” including increased tameness, juvenile behaviour, floppy ears and smaller teeth. Traits that helped them adjust to life with humans. However, the resemblance between bully cats and dogs doesn’t come from this gradual, natural process. Instead, it’s the result of selective breeding based on aesthetics.

    Veterinarian and animal welfare scientist Wenche Farstad summarises this as breeding for “curiosity or cuteness” in their 2018 paper on ethical breeding. While people normally find traits like round eyes and short nose length to be particularly cute, breeding for hairlessness and shorter legs is better aligned with the concept of breeding for curiosity.

    In this case, the resemblance between bully cats and dogs is more about human-driven design, where appearance is prioritised. The bully cat seems to have been intentionally bred to resemble the bully dog, perhaps due to their perception among young men as a kind of status symbol.

    Could bully cats survive without humans?

    Mutations that hinder survival and reproduction typically become rare in nature. However, humans bypass natural selection by choosing which animals breed, allowing traits that would be disadvantageous in the wild to persist.

    Examples of this can be seen across a number of domestic species. For example, due to the muscularity of their calves, Belgian Blue cattle require caesarean sections in more than 90% of births.

    Another farm animal, the modern broiler chicken, has been bred to grow much faster than its wild counterparts. If allowed to live longer than their usual slaughter age, many would not survive. Bully cats would probably also struggle to survive in the wild, without humans to care for them.

    Crossbreeding programs can help increase genetic diversity and reduce harmful traits in many breeds. However, for mutant breeds like the bully cat – where hairlessness and short legs are defining traits – this isn’t a realistic solution.

    Prospective pet owners need to be aware of the risks associated with owning mutant and experimental breeds. Consumers hold purchasing power. We can discourage breeders from prioritising aesthetics over the health and welfare of the animals by refusing to buy breeds with extreme traits.

    A fashion toward ethical breeding could ensure future cats are healthier, happier and free to enjoy natural feline behaviour like climbing, jumping and lounging in the sun. We should let cats be cats.

    Grace Carroll does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The ‘bully cats’ bred to resemble American bully dogs and how fashion is creating mutant pet breeds – https://theconversation.com/the-bully-cats-bred-to-resemble-american-bully-dogs-and-how-fashion-is-creating-mutant-pet-breeds-240729

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Prison education is vital – but it is neglected and failing

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Glazzard, Rosalind Hollis Professor of Education for Social Justice, University of Hull

    Dontree_M/Shutterstock

    The quality of education in young offender institutions (YOIs) in England has seriously declined, according to a recent report from Ofsted and the prisons inspectorate.

    The report into these institutions, whose offenders are aged 15 to 18, referred to “steadily declining educational opportunities”. Among the failings listed were a lack of time allocated to education, lack of proper staff training, staff shortages and poor behaviour of learners.

    It claimed that the curriculum is narrow, fragmented, and poorly resourced due to lack of investment in technology. Prison leaders do not accurately pinpoint what students need to learn, while learners with special educational needs and disabilities do not always get the support that they need. According to data from 2022, only 8.6% of young people who received custodial sentences passed five GCSEs, compared to 58.3% of those without convictions.

    Indeed, there are similar issues across the prison system. The quality of education in too many prisons is not good enough. Research suggests prisoners are often disengaged in classes and education lacks challenge and purpose.

    This is especially disheartening when research also shows that participation in education within prisons can improve learners’ self-esteem and reduce prison violence, as well as increasing the chances of getting a job once offenders are released.

    Teaching reading

    Many adults in prison, as well as children in YOIs, struggle to read. English education inspectorate Ofsted and its prisons counterpart have published two reviews on the teaching of reading in prisons. The first report, published in 2022, highlighted that many teaching staff did not know how to teach reading.

    Inspectors found that reading teachers did not have suitable resources. There was not enough time for learners to practise reading, and weak assessment resulted in teachers not fully understanding why some learners were struggling to learn to read. Some prisons were over-relying on reading skills being taught by peer mentors, who are only supposed to support learners individually or in small groups.

    The second report, from 2023, highlighted that although some progress had been made a year later, it was too slow. Inspectors found that teachers still did not know how to improve reading skills. They also found that teachers did not monitor students’ progress, and interventions to support reading, particularly for non-English speakers, were not adequate.

    Special educational needs

    Too many pupils with special educational needs are excluded from schools and data shows that exclusion rates are higher for this group compared to those who do not have special educational needs. Many young people who are excluded from schools end up in prison, resulting in a high proportion of prisoners who have some form of learning difficulty or disability.

    According to a House of Commons report from 2022, over 30% of prisoners have a learning difficulty or experience learning challenges.

    In 2016 the Coates review of prison education made several recommendations to improve the quality of education in prisons. These included a focus on special educational needs – improving the assessment of educational needs on entry and more rigorous screening for prisoners with learning difficulties or disabilities.

    The review recommended that all prisoners should have a personal learning plan. Also, better quality teachers were needed and prisons needed to find ways of improving attendance in education classes

    Coates recommended that learners with special educational needs and disabilities needed better quality support and that prisoners needed to be able to continue their courses when they moved prisons. Unfortunately, evidence shows that in many prisons these recommendations have not been addressed.

    Making changes

    Another problem is that the growing prison population has led to overcrowding, resulting in poor conditions which make studying difficult.

    Work with prisoners by charities such as the Prison Reform Trust and the Prisoners’ Education Trust highlights some important recommendations which will improve the quality of education in prisons. These include widening the curriculum in prisons so that prisoners can select options from a wider range of courses.

    One recommendation is to provide better incentives to prisoners to encourage them to study. This could be done by paying them the same weekly “wage” as prisoners who choose work-related activities. Increasing the number of learning mentors will help ensure that prisoners get the support they need.

    Finally, introducing flexible education timetables would mean that education classes can also run in the evenings as well as during the day. This will mean that more prisoners can take part in education classes, because more classes can be timetabled across the day. Prisoners who work during the day will be able to take part in education in the evenings.

    According to the Prison Education Trust digital technology “remains the essential ingredient that would revolutionise prison education”. And prisoners need to be supported and encouraged if they are going to achieve their full educational potential.

    Jonathan Glazzard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Prison education is vital – but it is neglected and failing – https://theconversation.com/prison-education-is-vital-but-it-is-neglected-and-failing-240482

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Autocratic nations are reaching across borders to silence critics – and so far nothing seems to stop them

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Francesca Lessa, Associate Professor in International Relations of the Americas, UCL

    Iranian journalist Pouria Zeraati survived an assassination attempt outside his home in Wimbledon, south London, in late March 2024. Eighteen months earlier, the London-based independent television channel Iran International, for which Zeraati worked, had temporarily relocated to Washington DC over threats that they believe come from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

    Both incidents are examples of how it seems that a government can target an individual or organisation based outside their borders, with terrifying results.

    According to the latest research from the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenberg, 71% of the world’s population lived in autocracies in 2023 – ten years ago it was 48%. But what’s also new is that autocracies – as well as some other nations – are increasingly reaching across their borders to target people living abroad, enforcing the idea that they can reach their critics wherever they live.

    This kind of state action, taken outside national borders, is known as transnational repression, and is becoming more widespread. The Chinese government is seen as the biggest perpetrator, sometimes using violence to close down criticism or protests against its regime, held in other countries.

    Countries reaching across borders

    More than 20% of the world’s governments are believed to have taken this kind of action outside their borders in the past ten years. These included assassinations, abductions, assaults, detentions and unlawful deportations, according to the NGO Freedom House. These are aimed at forcibly silencing exiled political activists, journalists, former regime insiders and members of ethnic or religious minorities.
    In 2023, 125 such incidents were committed by 25 countries.

    While the majority of countries committing such practices tend to be autocracies, a number of democracies have also taken action across borders, including Israel, Hungary, India and Turkey, according to the report. In 2023, six countries engaged in these practices for the first time, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, El Salvador and Yemen.



    Read more:
    Why the growing number of foreign agent laws around the world is bad for democracy

    Freedom House recorded 1,034 physical attacks between 2014 and 2023, committed by 44 governments in 100 target countries. China, Turkey, Tajikistan, Russia and Egypt are the most prolific perpetrators, with China accounting for a quarter of all incidents.

    This type of terror tactic can take many forms. Freedom House has noted that governments increasingly cooperated to help target exiled dissidents. In 74% of the incidents of transnational repression that took place in 2021, both the origin and the host countries were rated “not free” by Freedom House.

    Awareness of this type of cross-border action is growing. Both human rights groups and academics are now systematically tracking attacks. And several governments, including the US and Australia, have committed to taking action to combat these practices. A bill was introduced in the US Senate in 2023 to specifically tackle transnational repression by foreign governments in the US and abroad.

    I studied the increasing levels of cooperation in transnational repression by different nations in a recent article published in International Studies Quarterly. We look at why states, which are normally reluctant to collaborate, do so when it comes to silencing dissidents abroad.



    Read more:
    Continuing crackdown on churches and NGOs moves Nicaragua further from democracy to authoritarianism

    Historical lessons?

    There are historical parallels between what happened during Operation Condor in South America and what’s happening today. Operation Condor was a system that Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay started using in late 1975 with the backing of the US. It was aimed at persecuting exiles. Operation Condor was the most sophisticated, institutionalised and coordinated scheme ever established to persecute citizens who had been forced to flee their homeland.

    Journalist Pouria Zeraati was attacked.

    Three factors were found to explain why this form of repression was able to be used at the time and why countries agreed to cooperate.

    First, politically active exiled dissidents constituted a threat to the reputation and survival of South America’s ruling juntas. They successfully named and shamed the region’s military regimes, discrediting their international public images given the human rights violations perpetrated and resulting in the US cutting funding to Uruguay in 1976 and Argentina in 1977.

    Second, these autocracies, which came to power between 1964 and 1976, drew inspiration from the US National Security Doctrine and the French School of Counterinsurgency. In both, security was considered more important than human rights.

    The history of Operation Condor.

    Finally, two countries catalysed efforts to cooperate in this kind of action. Chile pushed for the formal creation of Operation Condor in 1975. Argentina then expanded it to include Brazil, Peru and Ecuador between 1976 and 1978. This significantly widened Operation Condor’s scope for action to most of South America.

    Why Operation Condor is relevant?

    Operation Condor was the only regional organisation to be created to hunt down political opponents across borders. Lessons from this historical experience are relevant today.

    Cooperation in transnational repression in the last few years also occurs in regional clusters, as shown by research by academics and human rights groups. These groups of nations include, for instance, Belarus, Russia and Tajikistan, as well as Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam.

    In recent years these south-east Asian countries have closely collaborated to persecute, arbitrarily arrest and forcibly repatriate exiled activists and refugees, according to the media, the UN and international human rights NGOs.

    Second, one or more countries, predominantly Russia and Turkey, have worked together on efforts to repress critics over a significant period.

    Third, some regional organisations, of authoritarian nature, often enable cooperation in transnational repression, or at least create unsafe environments for migrating dissidents.

    The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Gulf Cooperation Council are examples, since they “have expanded their collective efforts against exiles”, according to some sources. SCO member states, especially Russia, China and Uzbekistan, have repeatedly used the organisation to pursue political opponents abroad and persecute them as criminals. This shows the organisation’s role as a platform for the diffusion and consolidation of authoritarian principles.

    Countries engaging in this kind of political repression today often wish to silence dissent wherever it occurs.

    These countries are acting in complete disregard of established principles of international law and international relations, such as sovereignty and the protection of refugees, and seem to be expanding their operations. It remains to be seen if there’s anything that the rest of the international community can do to reverse this terrifying trend, but at least it has started trying.

    Francesca Lessa’s projects “Operation Condor” and “Plancondor.org” received funding from the University of Oxford John Fell Fund, The British Academy/Leverhulme Trust, the University of Oxford ESRC Impact Acceleration Account, the European Commission under Horizon 2020, the Open Society Foundations, and UCL Public Policy through Research England’s QR-PSF funding. Lessa is also the Honorary President of the Observatorio Luz Ibarburu, a network of human rights NGOs in Uruguay.

    – ref. Autocratic nations are reaching across borders to silence critics – and so far nothing seems to stop them – https://theconversation.com/autocratic-nations-are-reaching-across-borders-to-silence-critics-and-so-far-nothing-seems-to-stop-them-233037

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: In despair about Earth’s future? Look for green shoots

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Heather Alberro, Lecturer in Sustainability, University of Manchester

    A white stork nesting in the city. Dr.MYM/Shutterstock

    As species go extinct and a habitable climate teeters, it’s understandable to feel despair.

    Some of the world’s top climate scientists have expressed their mounting hopelessness at the prospect of reaching 3°C by 2100. This hellish scenario, well in excess of the 1.5°C countries agreed to aim for when they signed the 2015 Paris agreement, would indeed spell disaster for much of life on Earth.

    As a lecturer in sustainability, I often hear my anxious students bemoan the impossibility of building a way out of ecological collapse. However, the greatest danger is fatalism, and assuming, as Margaret Thatcher claimed, that “there is no alternative”.

    There is a vast ocean of possibility for transforming the planet. Increasingly, cities are in the vanguard of forging more sustainable worlds.

    Car-free futures

    Since the early 1900s, the car has afforded a sense of freedom for some while infringing on the freedoms of others.

    Cars, particularly SUVs, are a major source of air pollution and CO₂ emissions globally. Motorways and car parking spaces have transformed Earth’s terrain and monopolised public space. For those of us in industrialised societies, it is difficult to imagine life without cars.

    Global sales of electric vehicles are projected to continue rising. Yet even these supposed solutions to an unsustainable transport sector require a lot of space and materials to make and maintain.

    With cities set to host nearly 70% of all people by 2050, space and livability are key concerns. As such, cities across Europe and beyond are beginning to reclaim their streets.

    Between 2019 and 2022, the number of low-emissions zones, areas that regulate the most polluting vehicles in order to improve air quality and help to protect public health, expanded by 40% in European cities. Research suggests that policies to restrict car use such as congestion charges and raised parking fees can further discourage their use. However, providing viable and accessible alternatives is also crucial: as such, many cities are also widening walkways, building bike lanes and making public transport cheaper and easier to access.

    An estimated 80,000 cars used to pass daily through the centre of Pontevedra, a city in north-west Spain. Mayor Miguel Anxo Fernandez Lores instituted a ban on cars in 1999 and removed on-street parking spaces. The city has since drastically reduced air pollution and hasn’t had a vehicular death in over a decade.

    Civic life in Pontevedra has benefited from the absence of cars.
    Trabantos/Shutterstock

    Living cities

    Cement and concrete are widely used to make major infrastructure such as roads, bridges, buildings and dams. The cement industry accounts for up to 9% of global emissions. Moreover, the open-pit quarrying of limestone, a key ingredient in cement, involves removing topsoil and vegetation which rips up ecosystems and biodiversity and increases flooding risks.

    A burgeoning “depaving” movement originated in Portland, Oregon in 2008 and has removed concrete and asphalt from cities including Chicago, London and several cities across Canada, replacing it with plants and soil.

    Depaving is an example of the wider urban rewilding movement which aims to restore natural habitats and expand green spaces in cities for social and ecological wellbeing.

    Multispecies coexistence

    A new report by the World Wildlife Fund for Nature (WWF) has documented an average 73% decline in the abundance of monitored wildlife populations globally since 1970. Despite such unfathomable losses, many cities are being transformed into oases of multispecies life.

    Prized for their fur, beavers were hunted to extinction in the UK by the 16th century. Their water damming activities create homes for other species such as birds and invertebrates and help prevent flooding. Eurasian beavers have been thriving in Sweden, Norway and Germany since their reintroduction in the 1920s and 1960s, respectively.

    In 2022, beavers were designated a protected species in England. In October 2023, London saw its first baby beaver in over 400 years.

    Melbourne has launched a project to create a 18,000 square-metre garden in the city by 2028, with at least 20 local plant species for each square metre. An 8-kilometre long pollinator corridor is also being created to allow wildlife to travel between 200 interconnected gardens and further help local pollinators flourish.

    Living alongside larger predators brings unique challenges. However, as with any functional relationship, respect is key for coexistence. Los Angeles and Mumbai are two major cities that are learning to live alongside mountain lions and leopards. Local officials have launched public education initiatives urging people to, for instance, maintain a safe distance from the animals and not walk alone outside at night. In cases where wildlife conflicts occur, such as between wolves and farmers who have lost livestock, non-lethal methods such as wolf-proof fences and guard dogs have been found to be more effective solutions than culls.

    India’s leopard population appears to be rising.
    Nedla/Shutterstock

    Environmental justice now

    Cities, particularly in wealthy countries, are only a small part of the story.

    At just over 500 years old, the modern capitalist system, imposed globally through European colonialism, is a relatively recent development. Despite its influence, the visionary author Ursula K. Le Guin reminded us that “any human power can be resisted and changed by human beings”.

    Indigenous peoples numbering 476 million across 90 countries represent thousands of distinct cultures that persist as living proof of the enduring possibilities of radically different ways of living.

    An online database tracks 4,189 environmental justice movements worldwide. From multi-tribe Indigenous Amazonian alliances keeping illegal miners at bay, to countless local communities and activist groups resisting the construction of new fossil fuel infrastructure. Over the last few years, these place-based struggles have either stopped, stalled or forced the suspension of at least one-quarter of planned extractive projects.

    These examples demonstrate hope in action, and suggest that the radical changes required to avert climate and ecological breakdown are often a simple question of will and collective resolve.

    Reality, like the future, is never fixed. Whether the world is 2, 3 or 4-degrees warmer by 2100 depends on actions taken today. The terrain ahead will be full of challenges. But, glimmers of a better world are already here.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get our award-winning weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 35,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Heather Alberro does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. In despair about Earth’s future? Look for green shoots – https://theconversation.com/in-despair-about-earths-future-look-for-green-shoots-232114

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Threads: the harrowing 1984 BBC docudrama is back on our screens – scary but appropriate viewing for our uncertain times

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Lacy, Senior lecturer, Politics, Philosophy, and Religion, Lancaster University

    The BBC docudrama Threads shocked audiences in 1984. BBC

    Threads – the horrific film made by the BBC in 1984 depicting the impact of a nuclear war on a city in the north of England – was recently made available to stream. It’s a brutal and grim tour of the aftermath of nuclear war, which anyone who viewed it when originally aired may struggle to watch again. But, 40 years on, the film is probably regarded more as an unpleasant artefact from a more dangerous time.

    These days we consume many types of apocalyptic entertainment in film and video games, exploring all types of societal collapse: ecological disaster, manufactured pandemics, alien invasions, cyber-attacks and dangerous AI. But Threads is particularly chilling in its attempt to give a realistic account of what could happen if cold war tensions escalated. I remember watching it as a teenager in a lesson at school and once was enough for me.

    But in the winter of 2024, it is difficult to escape the regular warnings about the escalating tensions around the world. There are widespread fears that a catastrophic series of diplomatic breakdowns and strategic miscalculations could result in a 2024 version of the events depicted in the 1984 film.

    Since the end of the cold war, much of international conflict has played out below the threshold of open war, in the realms of cyberwarfare, espionage and subversion. Or in other attempts at economic and political tactics intended to influence and manipulate. But there is clearly something very alarming about the situation since the invasion of Ukraine and the escalation of events in the Middle East since October 7.

    What makes the current situation so alarming is the sense that “great powers” or states with nuclear weapons could be pulled into conflicts that might quickly escalate beyond any diplomatic or political control. It’s hoped that leaders on all sides are determined to deter or contain conflict. But wars are shaped by accidents, miscalculations and errors of strategic judgement.

    Would Vladimir Putin have sent his troops into Ukraine if he could see how the Ukrainians and the international community would react? Now he has turned to making regular threats about Russia’s nuclear arsenal.

    So, there is a sense of unease about the current possibility of events getting out of control – of events escalating from brutal and horrific local or regional conflicts into a full blown global conflict. To be sure, there will (hopefully) be a continual diplomatic effort focused in ensuring that events in Ukraine or the Middle East do not escalate to the point where there the world is drawn into a wider war involving weapons of mass destruction.

    Rational v irrational actors

    But one of the concerns is that the situation in the 2020s is markedly difficult to geopolitical tensions during the cold war. The influential “realists” of international relations – academics like John Mearsheimer and Stephen Walt – argued that one of the reasons that the US should not invade Iraq was that Saddam Hussein was a “rational actor” whose behaviour could be contained and controlled. Iraq could be controlled through what they saw as “vigilant surveillance” and containment.

    But the fear in 2024 is that the world isn’t populated by rational actors as it was during the cold war, with its doctrine of mutually assured destruction.

    Putin is viewed as a leader increasingly detached from reality – surrounded by advisers too afraid to give him advice that he might not want to hear. In strategic terms, the fear he is that he might escalate to de-escalate. He might attempt a nuclear strike to deter events escalating further – an horrific warning signal that will end any attempts to challenge him.

    Some would question whether Iran may be led by men who are also detached from reality and might actually be looking for an apocalyptic showdown with Israel and the west. This depiction of irrational leaders might be more a reflection of our panic and paranoia than a credible assessment of leadership in these states. And of course, some would argue that the liberal world has its fair share of irrational actors.

    An interconnected world

    So, are we in a time or dangerous irrational actors where deterrence will not prevent a potentially apocalyptic escalation in global events? Security analysts and policymakers often refer to what is known as “deterrence by entanglement”. There are various types of deterrence but one of the geopolitical differences between now and the cold war is the level of interconnection between states that might have diplomatic, economic and political tensions.

    How many Chinese students study in UK universities? How much property in London is owned by Russian citizens? Societies are entangled to such a degree that a launching a nuclear strike on London would not only destroy investments, it might also kill your own citizens. Then there is the question of geographical location and nuclear strikes: would you risk the ecological blowback from nuclear strikes in a way that might endanger your territory, ecology and citizens – for generations?

    Leaders make mistakes and situations escalate in dangerous and unpredictable ways. But one of the lessons of international relations – going back to the works of Sun Tzu and Machiavelli – is that deception is a vital part of statecraft and warfare. And the “performance” of statecraft often requires cultivating an image of irrationality as a form of rational statecraft and deterrence. Some have argued that Donald Trump’s actions and pronouncements on international affairs produce a sense of uncertainty that works as a one-man strategy of deterrence.

    But as this performance plays out, it can be terrifying to watch and experience. Let’s not forget, the history of international relations is a history of tragic and mainly avoidable accidents.

    Mark Lacy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Threads: the harrowing 1984 BBC docudrama is back on our screens – scary but appropriate viewing for our uncertain times – https://theconversation.com/threads-the-harrowing-1984-bbc-docudrama-is-back-on-our-screens-scary-but-appropriate-viewing-for-our-uncertain-times-241314

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is Temporary Protected Status? A global migration expert explains why the US offers some foreign nationals temporary protection

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Karen Jacobsen, Henry J. Leir Chair in Global Migration, Fletcher School of Law & Diplomacy, Tufts University

    Haitian students use mobile phones to record an exercise during an English class in Springfield, Ohio, on Sept. 13, 2024. Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

    Former President Donald Trump and his running mate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance, have criticized the Biden administration’s decision to allow Haitian nationals who are in the U.S. to apply for permission to stay under a legal classification called Temporary Protected Status. Here is what this designation means and how it’s made:

    TPS permits foreign nationals who are already in the United States – even if they did not enter the country through an official or legal means – to remain for six, 12 or 18 months at a time if the situation in their home country is deemed too dangerous for them to return. Threats that prompt TPS designations include ongoing armed conflict, natural disasters, epidemics and other extraordinary and temporary conditions.

    The Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security designates a foreign country for TPS when conditions there meet requirements spelled out in federal law. Once the secretary determines that the foreign country is safe for its nationals to return, their protected status expires and people who have been granted it are expected to return to their home country.

    Congress created TPS as part of the Immigration Act of 1990. Since then, administrations have used it to protect thousands of people from dozens of countries. The first nations to be designated, in March 1991, were Kuwait, Lebanon and Liberia.

    As of March 2024, there were 863,880 people from 16 countries under Temporary Protected Status in the U.S. Another 486,418 people had initial or renewal applications pending. An estimated 316,000 people may also be eligible under two new extensions since that date.

    TPS beneficiaries may not be detained by federal officials over their immigration status or deported from the United States. They can obtain work permits and apply for authorization to travel outside the U.S. and return to it.

    People who receive TPS don’t automatically become legal permanent residents. But they can petition for an adjustment of their immigration status, such as applying for permanent residency, a student visa or asylum. Applying for a change of immigration status does not necessarily mean their application will be approved.

    Humanitarian measures

    TPS is not the only tool administrations can use to protect people from countries facing disaster or conflict.

    For example, a Haitian person currently living in the U.S. is eligible for TPS under a designation that lasts through Feb. 3, 2026. In contrast, a Haitian who travels through Mexico and applies for entry to the U.S. at the border is not likely to be admitted.

    However, there is a third possibility for Haitians, known as parole. The federal government can give certain groups permission to enter or remain in the U.S. if it finds “urgent humanitarian or significant public benefit reasons” for doing so.

    People who enter through parole programs must have an approved financial supporter in the U.S., undergo a robust security vetting and meet other eligibility criteria. They typically can stay for one to two years, and may apply for authorization to work.

    One current parole program is for people from Latin American countries that are TPS designates. The U.S. government can grant advance permission to enter the U.S. to up to 30,000 Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans each month. People fleeing these countries – all of which have been designated for Temporary Protected Status – can seek authorization to travel from their homes to the U.S. for urgent humanitarian reasons, and then stay for a temporary period of parole for up to two years.

    Immigrant rights groups rally at the U.S. Capitol following a federal court ruling that threatened the legal standing of thousands with Temporary Protected Status, Sept. 15, 2020.
    Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

    I’ve studied global migration and asylum policy for 25 years. I see both TPS and parole as legal and carefully considered ways to support people from countries experiencing wrenching conflict, disorder and disaster who are seeking safety in the U.S. Doing away with these programs, as Trump sought to do during his term in office, would make it extremely difficult for people in great danger to escape.

    Neither TPS nor parole programs are automatic roads to citizenship or permanent residence. They are ways to provide humanitarian assistance to people in appalling circumstances, such as rampant gang violence in Haiti and economic hardship and political repression in Venezuela and Nicaragua.

    Certainly, cities need more resources to support large numbers of immigrants. But offering temporary protection to people whose home countries are not safe places to live is a long-standing – and, in my view, crucial – element of U.S. immigration policy.

    Karen Jacobsen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is Temporary Protected Status? A global migration expert explains why the US offers some foreign nationals temporary protection – https://theconversation.com/what-is-temporary-protected-status-a-global-migration-expert-explains-why-the-us-offers-some-foreign-nationals-temporary-protection-240525

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mozambique’s 2024 elections: 9 major challenges that will face the next president

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By David Matsinhe, Losophone Research Specialist/Adjunct Professor in African Studies, Carleton University

    The incoming president of Mozambique faces an array of interconnected problems deeply rooted in historical, socioeconomic and political dynamics. He must balance meeting immediate needs with long-term structural change.

    The 9 October 2024 general election was Mozambique’s seventh since multiparty elections were introduced in 1994. The results are expected to be announced within two weeks from the poll date. International media reports indicate that the ruling Frelimo and its presidential candidate Daniel Chapo are poised for a landslide victory.

    This is likely to be confirmed by the electoral commission even though local media have pointed to widespread and brazen ballot stuffing and fake observers, among other irregularities, in favour of Frelimo.

    Frelimo has been in power since independence in 1975.

    Can the resource-rich but impoverished nation of 35 million expect a redirection of policies and strategies under Chapo to address its multifaceted crises?

    Chapo (47) was born after independence and promises to act with integrity. But the old guard placed him in power to protect and promote their interests.

    Mozambique’s crises stem largely from systemic corruption under Frelimo. It has prioritised political elites over national welfare. Its decades of mismanagement, embezzlement and patronage have left institutions weak and unable to address pressing social and economic issues.

    The country is fragmented. The government has neglected the development of inclusive, accountable governance and equitable infrastructure. Regional disparities are the result. This is especially so in Cabo Delgado province, where disenfranchised citizens have become vulnerable to extremist groups.

    This lack of unity and long-term planning has created a fragile state unable to withstand mounting internal and external pressures.

    As a Mozambican social scientist and human rights specialist, I have spent my adult life wrestling with my country’s complex economic, social, cultural and political dynamics.



    Read more:
    9 million Mozambicans live below the poverty line – what’s wrong with the national budget and how to fix it

    Mozambique stands at a critical point. The new president must confront the deep-rooted challenges with determination and comprehensive reforms.

    In my view, the new leader faces nine key challenges. These are a deep economic crisis, an Islamic insurgency in the north, climate change, drug trafficking, unemployment, corruption, poor infrastructure, kidnappings and unpaid public sector salaries.

    Economic crisis

    Mozambique’s economy has deteriorated, primarily because of structural imbalances and a dependence on extractive industries. GDP growth has declined sharply, from 7% in 2014 to 1.8% in 2023.

    Slower growth has resulted in over 62% of Mozambicans living in poverty.

    A public debt crisis was worsened by the “hidden debt scandal”: the discovery in 2016 of US$2 billion in previously undisclosed debts the government had guaranteed without the knowledge of parliament.

    This has limited the state’s capacity to invest in education, health and sanitation.

    Economic revival must be accompanied by targeted interventions to promote inclusive growth. All Mozambicans must benefit from economic activities to alleviate poverty.

    Insurgency

    Since 2017, extremist groups have used local grievances and regional disenfranchisement to destabilise northern Mozambique. Over 4,000 people have died. Nearly a million have been displaced.

    The conflict is rooted in socio-economic inequalities, made worse by the extraction of natural gas and rubies. Global and local actors compete for control.

    The new president’s role in mediating this crisis requires nuance. He must address the historical marginalisation of Cabo Delgado while balancing military and developmental responses.



    Read more:
    Between state and mosque: new book explores the turbulent history of Islamic politics in Mozambique

    He must also write a new chapter in the country’s deplorable human rights record. This is marked by widespread violations of the right to life, physical integrity, freedom from arbitrary detention, and freedoms of expression, assembly and the press.

    Climate change crisis

    Climate change intersects with Mozambique’s vulnerabilities. The country has been repeatedly struck by increasingly devastating severe cyclones, such as Idai and Kenneth in 2019.

    Deforestation has made it more fragile, reducing its capacity to mitigate flood and erosion risks.

    The new president will need to put in place policies that incorporate mitigation and adaptation strategies. He will also need to secure multilateral cooperation.

    Drug trafficking

    Drug trafficking networks have entrenched themselves. Porous borders, weak governance structures and endemic corruption have made Mozambique a corridor for heroin and cocaine trafficking.

    The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime estimates that US$100 million worth of heroin passes through Mozambique annually. This fuels informal economies that sustain political patronage networks.

    Tackling the problem requires stronger state institutions. It also requires regional and global collaboration to disrupt the transnational flow of narcotics.

    Unemployment

    Joblessness stands at over 70%, affecting youth in particular. Youth disenfranchisement risks perpetuating cycles of poverty, social instability and potential radicalisation.

    Policies promoting vocational training and entrepreneurship are essential. So is investment in labour-intensive sectors, such as agriculture and manufacturing.

    Corruption

    Pervasive corruption erodes public trust and stifles economic innovation. New efforts to combat corruption must go beyond superficial reforms. They must uproot the power structures that sustain these systems.

    Poor infrastructure

    Infrastructure is in disrepair. Urban roads are crumbling, public services are inadequate and electricity blackouts are frequent. Rural regions lack basic services such as clean water and healthcare.

    The next president will need to launch an ambitious infrastructure overhaul to improve living conditions and stimulate economic growth.

    Kidnappings

    Kidnappings, especially targeting the wealthy and business people, have created widespread fear and instability. The crime disrupts business operations and deters foreign investment, further harming economic growth.

    The high-profile nature of kidnappings suggests collusion between criminal networks and law enforcement as well as inefficiencies in the justice system.

    The persistence of kidnappings reflects broader governance issues. These include limited state capacity to respond effectively to organised crime.

    Unpaid public servants

    Delays in salary payments for public servants have worsened economic and social problems. The delays reduce public workers’ purchasing power. This has affected household consumption and local economies.

    Morale among employees is sapped, harming productivity and eroding trust in government institutions.



    Read more:
    Mozambique’s transgender history is on display in a powerful photo exhibition

    The new president must make public sector reforms. This includes auditing finances, improving revenue collection, enforcing fiscal discipline, promoting merit-based appointments, implementing probity laws, strengthening anti-corruption bodies, and diversifying the economy.

    The future of Mozambique rests on the ability of its next leader to address these profound and intertwined crises. It’s a huge task.

    Whoever it is will have to break from the Frelimo mould, reverse the damage done and set the country on a new path of clean governance, peace and inclusive economic growth.

    David Matsinhe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Mozambique’s 2024 elections: 9 major challenges that will face the next president – https://theconversation.com/mozambiques-2024-elections-9-major-challenges-that-will-face-the-next-president-240923

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Elite corruption has the power to ignite mass protests in Nigeria – why police corruption doesn’t

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Jacob Lewis, Assistant Professor, School of Politics, Philosophy and Public Affairs, Washington State University

    Nigerians took to the streets in August 2024 to voice their frustration at a series of government policies. These policies had been ostensibly designed to make Nigeria more attractive for outside investment.

    The removal of fuel subsidies and the removal of the economic peg between the Nigerian naira and the US dollar have sent the Nigerian economy into a tailspin.

    Many Nigerians rely on government subsidies to make ends meet. The economic policy changes have resulted in a big rise in inflation, adding to the challenges for ordinary Nigerians.

    As economic conditions have worsened, the prominence of government corruption has risen. Protests and riots have exploded in the streets across the country in the form of #EndBadGovernance protests that call out government graft and poor governance.

    Does government corruption drive protests and social movements? While some scholars have argued that it does, others have argued that corruption is often a catch-all term for frustration over broad economic and democratic grievances. Others have noted that in some cases, increased perceptions of corruption correlate with less protest.

    These contradictory results reveal an important puzzle: why does corruption only sometimes seem to generate mass uprisings? If, for example, corruption is enough to generate citizen uprisings, then why do we only rarely see unified anti-police protests in countries like Nigeria, where police corruption is rampant?

    I argue that one key to this puzzle is the way different types of corruption are associated with increased or decreased protest mobilisation.

    I am a political scientist whose work focuses in part on African social movements and issues of corruption. I approach this by merging large statistical models with political psychological approaches.

    I conducted research in 2021 on different types of corruption shaping protests. I found that elite corruption had the power to mobilise protest. But that other forms of corruption – such as corruption in the police force – were less likely to lead people to take protest action.

    The implication of my findings is that anti-corruption protests are an imperfect signal for understanding everyday corruption experiences. The fact that people aren’t protesting doesn’t mean there’s nothing to complain about.

    Why elite corruption sparks protest

    To explain why corruption sometimes corresponds with protest movements and other times does not, I think it is useful to consider two types of corruption. Elite corruption refers to forms of graft and venality performed by political elites who seek to either enrich themselves or reshape the political system to their advantage.

    Police corruption refers to acts of self-enrichment or abuse perpetrated by police officers, often during traffic stops or in the process of police procedure.

    My findings show that citizens are generally more likely to mobilise in response to elite corruption than police corruption. Why?

    First, elite corruption tends to be intertwined with macro-level economic crises and scandals.

    Second, elite corruption provides a universal point of focus for protesters across an entire nation, rather than the highly localised experiences of police and bureaucratic graft.

    Finally, anger over police corruption may be suppressed by the safety concerns associated with demonstrating against armed security forces.

    I tested this argument using two methods. First, drawing from a 2017 household survey experiment that I conducted in five Nigerian states, I examined whether exposure to vignettes describing either elite corruption or police corruption shaped a respondent’s self-reported willingness to participate in a protest.

    The elite corruption vignettes included self-dealing and system-changing forms of corruption perpetrated by political elites. The police corruption vignette focused on the solicitation of bribes and unfair detention of citizens by the police. I then asked respondents:

    Many Nigerians join groups that engage in protests, strikes, or demonstrations. Now I would like to ask you about how willing you would be to join a protest or demonstration.

    Respondents were able to select a response between 1 (“not at all willing”) to 5 (“very willing / I already do”).

    I found that individuals who received the elite corruption vignette were statistically more likely to state that they would join a protest or demonstration.

    I then expanded this analysis via a statistical regression that measured whether perceptions of elite and police corruption (sourced from the Afrobarometer dataset) correlated with different levels of observed conflict (sourced from the Social Conflict Analysis Database).

    I thought it was best to test whether the results of my survey experiment, which capture a moment in time, reflected a broader reality, or whether it was just a fluke.

    Using the Afrobarometer data, I identified regions where citizens expressed particularly high or low perceptions of elite and police corruption. Then, using the social conflict analysis data, I measured the number of protest events in those regions.

    I found that while elite corruption perceptions were positively correlated with an increased number of observed protest events, police corruption perceptions were not.

    Together, these methods suggest that it is not enough to argue that citizens will rise up against corrupt governments. Rather, the ways in which a government is corrupt matter.

    Turning back to the August 2024 protests, one might ask: why now? Why did Nigerians spend ten days protesting against corruption when there had been rampant corruption for so long?

    My research suggests that the nature of the corruption claims – specifically, anger over large-scale government graft – is what counts.

    Recent developments seem to support this.

    What’s changed

    First, corruption perceptions have spiked. In 2021, Afrobarometer polled 1,600 Nigerians, asking them whether levels of corruption had risen, stayed the same, or decreased in the past year. At the time, just over 35% stated that corruption had “increased a lot”. One year later, that number had nearly doubled, jumping to just under 65%.

    This drastic increase in perceived corruption reveals a broader lack of faith in the government and concern over the future of the country.

    Second, tipping points help with mobilisation. The protests in early August arose as the financial crisis crystallised and as a series of economic policies brought into sharp relief the economic disparities between the rich and the poor.

    The removal of fuel subsidies is a particularly touchy subject in Nigerian politics. In 2012, Nigerians took to the streets over the same issue, leading to a week-long “occupation” of major Nigerian cities by protesters.

    Implications

    Protests are a highly visible signal that citizens are frustrated; however, it is easy to overlook the possibility that citizens may be widely upset about a broad array of issues, but only willing to speak out in response to some of those issues.

    There is a knock-on consequence to this; namely, that police corruption has a more direct effect on the lives of Nigerians than elite corruption, but often goes unaddressed.

    Jacob Lewis receives funding from the Department of Defense, the U.S. Agency for International Development, the Anti-Defamation League, and the Carnegie Corporation of New York. He consults with the Anti-Defamation League on survey-based research.

    – ref. Elite corruption has the power to ignite mass protests in Nigeria – why police corruption doesn’t – https://theconversation.com/elite-corruption-has-the-power-to-ignite-mass-protests-in-nigeria-why-police-corruption-doesnt-239760

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Gangs’stories : A glimpse of hard lives around the world

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Dennis Rodgers, Research Professor, Anthropology and Sociology, Graduate Institute – Institut de hautes études internationales et du développement (IHEID)

    Gangs and gang members arguably constitute fundamental lenses through which to think about and consider the world we live in. They need to be understood in a balanced and nuanced manner, however, that goes beyond stereotyping and vilification. For the past five years, the GANGS project, a European Research Council-funded project led by Dennis Rodgers, has been studying global gang dynamics.

    Among the project’s various activities, researchers collected 31 gang member life histories from 23 countries around the world, to help us better understand the motivations, drivers, and events that can shape gang members’ choices and trajectories. Taken together, the stories offer a panorama of triumph and defeat, of ruin and redemption, of discrimination and emancipation, and highlight the frequent persistence of human beings, even in the most difficult of circumstances. The 31 stories will be published in different forms – including as an Open Access edited volume with Bloomsbury Press, and in two journal special issues – over the coming years. In the meantime, this special series for The Conversation offers a preliminary selection, each illustrating a key issue that has emerged from GANGS project research.

    Kieran Mitton tells us about the life of Gaz, a former Sierra Leonean gang member who became a poet and then a farmer. His remarkable trajectory is a testament to the way that gangster lives are by no means deterministic and that opportunities to leave the gang and change can present themselves in all sorts of ways at different moments in time.

    Ellen Van Damme offers us a portrait of Jennifer, the first female Honduran gang leader. Her story illustrates the frequently gendered nature of gangs, and the way that machismo and patriarchy constrain Jennifer’s life, even as a gang leader, highlighting the frequently fundamentally masculine essence of street gangs.

    Sally Atkinson-Sheppard worked closely with Sharif, who 10 years ago was her research assistant, to write the story of his journey from gang member in war-torn Bangladesh to human rights worker and advocate for street children’s rights today. His story is one of overcoming exceptional adversity and drawing on his past experiences to do good in the world today.

    Steffen Jensen recounts the story of Marwan, whose life is in many ways a reflection of contemporary South African history, as he has had to navigate the violence of apartheid, prison, the Cape Flat drug wars, and more. Central to his narrative are the binary notions of damnation and redemption, with gangs frequently the sources of both at different points in his life, highlighting the different ways in which they can influence life trajectories.

    Alistair Fraser and Angela Bartie present a portrait of 70-year-old Danny, a retired Glaswegian businessman who was a gang member in his youth, and that is based, uniquely, on interviews carried out over a 50-year period, in 1969, 2011, and 2022. They trace his changing self-reflexion about his past, highlighting how this mirrors the broader transformation of Glasgow from a “Mean City” in the 1950s to a thriving metropolis that was Europe’s Capital of Culture in 1990.

    From a very young age, Soraya was involved in drug trafficking in the barrio Luis Fanor Hernández, a poor neighbourhood in Managua, the capital of Nicaragua, where Dennis Rodgers has worked for over 20 years. Known locally as “la Reina del Sur” (“the Queen of the South”), her story shows how rather than being empowering, her participation in the drugs trade reinforced forms of macho violence and patriarchal dynamics of domination.

    Dennis Rodgers received an Advanced Grant (no. 787935) from the European Research Council (https://erc.europa.eu) for a project on “Gangs, Gangsters, and Ganglands: Towards a Global Comparative Ethnography” (GANGS).

    – ref. Gangs’stories : A glimpse of hard lives around the world – https://theconversation.com/gangsstories-a-glimpse-of-hard-lives-around-the-world-227166

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nuer people have a sacred connection to birds – it can guide conservation in Ethiopia and South Sudan

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Abebayehu Aticho, PhD student, researcher and conservationist, Jimma University

    The pied kingfisher helps the Nuer to find parts of the river where there’s an abundance of fish. Henrik Karlsson/Getty Images

    The Nuer are a large pastoralist community living in western Ethiopia and South Sudan in east Africa. They rely on livestock keeping and have special beliefs and customs about how to live with nature. These are passed down from parents to children through the telling of stories.

    Uncommonly for east African pastoralists, the Nuer live in an expansive, low-lying floodplain. This Gambella region is shaped by the convergence of several rivers originating in the Ethiopian highlands. Its wetlands and lush greenery offer a unique habitat that supports both the Nuer and a wide variety of birds and other wildlife. The people have a centuries-old cultural connection with the local biodiversity.

    Our collaborative study involved Ethiopian and European scientists from diverse fields (such as ornithology, ethno-ornithology, biodiversity and nature conservation). We conducted interviews and 15 group discussions with Nuer people to understand their interaction with and knowledge of birds. The study included two districts and 400 households. We found a significant and seldom studied relationship with birds, which serve a range of purposes in Nuer life.

    Our study not only highlights the deep spiritual and cultural ties between the Nuer people and the avian world. It also underscores the importance of incorporating traditional ecological knowledge into contemporary conservation efforts.

    The Nuer’s relationship to birds can be a valuable model for sustainable human-wildlife interactions. It can contribute to the conservation of bird diversity and promote a more harmonious coexistence between humans and nature.

    The role of birds in Nuer life

    Ethiopia, known for its rich biodiversity, is home to 821 bird species and over 80 indigenous ethnic groups. Among these, the Nuer community stands out for its unique admiration of birds, viewing them as sacred beings.

    The Nuer use three interchangeable names for birds: gaatkuoth (sacred children of God), kuoth (bearers of spirit), and diit (symbols of human twins). These terms reflect spiritual beliefs and also influence cultural practices, such as naming twins after birds. This Nuer tradition connects the prolific nature of birds to human fertility.

    In our study, participants recognised 71 bird species as having unique cultural roles. The birds that live near Nuer villages have seven distinct uses. Ten species are used as bushmeat. Five are for traditional medicine. Eight are fish indicators – by meticulously observing species like the African fish eagle, African pygmy kingfisher, pied kingfisher or malachite kingfisher, people can identify areas with high fish populations.

    Seven birds serve as omens – they signal potential dangers like the presence of wild animals. Three are used to create protective amulets. Three are used to indicate the change of seasons – for instance the return of migratory western yellow wagtails is a reliable sign that the sunny, dry season will be replacing the rainy, wet season. And 45 are hailed for their aesthetic beauty, often linked with a sense of place. The vibrant plumage, melodious songs and elegant flight patterns of birds like the black-crowned crane, blue-naped mousebird and purple heron create a spectacle that significantly enhances Nuer life.

    This intricate knowledge of birds is communal: over 90% of participants agreed on the uses of these bird species.

    Indigenous knowledge and sustainability

    One of the most striking things about the Nuer community is the sustainable practice embedded within their traditional systems. When birds are used as amulets, for example, only small, non-invasive parts of the bird, like feathers, are utilised. These are fashioned into necklaces or bracelets believed to offer protection from dangers like diseases. The birds are not killed or significantly harmed, which preserves their populations.

    A Nuer village.
    fabio lamanna/Getty

    There are strict limits on when and how birds can be used in Nuer society. The use of birds as bushmeat or for making traditional medicine is carefully controlled by elders and within family structures. Hunting is typically allowed only during severe food shortages. It’s often restricted to those in dire need, such as impoverished households. Families with a history of twins, who hold birds in special reverence, are not allowed to hunt them.

    These cultural practices help prevent overexploitation of bird species, conserving them for future generations. They ensure that the use of natural resources remains sustainable.

    It’s important to raise awareness about the conservation of birds, which are used for various purposes across Africa. Traditional medicine, bushmeat and the making of amulets has a direct impact on bird populations.

    Nuer traditions balance human needs with the preservation of bird life. Our study therefore offers a compelling case and model for the conservation of avian and indigenous cultural diversity in Africa.

    Why this matters

    It is, however, essential to acknowledge that the Nuer’s cultural practices are not immune to the pressures of modern society. As globalisation and development continue to encroach on traditional lands, the Nuer people will face increasing challenges in maintaining their sustainable practices.

    Threats such as habitat loss, climate change and illegal wildlife trading could jeopardise bird populations. In recent decades, the expansion of large-scale agriculture in the Gambella region has emerged as a driver of habitat loss and wildlife decline.

    This makes the Nuer people’s traditional conservation practices even more relevant to future generations. By recognising and valuing their knowledge and practices, we can learn valuable lessons for broader conservation efforts.

    Indigenous territories, despite their relatively small size, often harbour extraordinary biodiversity. Recognising this, the United Nations’ Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework places indigenous-occupied areas among conservation priority areas at the forefront of biodiversity preservation strategies.

    It is crucial to help the Nuer community adapt to changing circumstances while preserving their cultural heritage and ensuring the sustainability of bird biodiversity.

    Changkuoth Puok Diet, a lecturer at Gambella University in Ethiopia, contributed to this article.

    Abebayehu Aticho works for both Jimma University and the Threatened Species Conservation Organisation (a small local NGO). He got funding for this study from the International Crane Foundation and Jimma University.

    Andrew Gosler has received grant funding in the past from the Arts and Humanities Research Council for the Ethno-ornithology World Atlas.

    Abebe Beyene, Desalegn Chala, Nils Christian Stenseth, and Shimelis Aynalem Zelelew do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Nuer people have a sacred connection to birds – it can guide conservation in Ethiopia and South Sudan – https://theconversation.com/nuer-people-have-a-sacred-connection-to-birds-it-can-guide-conservation-in-ethiopia-and-south-sudan-239420

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Assisted dying bill enters parliament – how likely is it to become law?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Daniel Gover, Senior Lecturer in British Politics, Queen Mary University of London

    Labour backbench MP Kim Leadbeater has introduced a bill in the House of Commons that aims to legalise assisted dying in England and Wales.

    Leadbeater is not a member of the government, but has been able to introduce the terminally ill adults (end of life) bill after topping this session’s private members’ bill ballot in September.

    It’s almost a decade since MPs last voted on assisted dying. Back then, the Conservatives had a majority. Now, the tables have turned and Labour has a large majority. However, it’s not yet clear whether the current cohort of MPs would back this momentous change.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

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    Leadbeater’s bill faces additional procedural challenges. Private members’ bills – legislation sponsored by individual MPs rather than the government – face a precarious route onto the statute book. They are highly vulnerable to objections, even if only from a small number of MPs.

    While private members’ bills go through the same basic process to become law as government-sponsored legislation, they are awarded only limited parliamentary time. There are only 13 Fridays per session (typically a year) when these bills are discussed in the House of Commons.

    A House of Commons staffer draws lots in the private members’ bill ballot in September.
    UK Parliament/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

    Challenge 1: second reading

    The first major test for this bill will be its second reading stage, due on November 29. For backbench bills, and especially those that are contentious, this stage can be tricky.

    Private members’ bills aren’t “programmed” like government bills, which means there is no mechanism for allocating more time to their discussion if needed. So, it only takes a small numbers of MPs to frustrate a bill’s progress by talking at length to run down the clock.

    To prevent this, supporters can attempt to move the “closure” – a motion to end the debate and make a decision. This, however, requires at least 100 MPs to vote in support – a difficult feat on Fridays, when most MPs are in their constituencies. This problem was illustrated earlier this year on a bill to outlaw conversion therapy. However, on a bill of this profile, there is a good chance of passing the closure.

    For Leadbeater’s bill, simply getting a vote at this stage would be an important accomplishment. It would mean that for the first time since 2015 – also on a backbench bill – the opinion of the Commons could be tested on assisted dying.

    Challenge 2: public evidence?

    Assuming the assisted dying bill passes the second reading stage, it would then be sent to a public bill committee for detailed consideration.

    Some major social changes have come about over the years because of backbench bills.
    Flickr/UK Parliament, CC BY-NC-ND

    Unlike for government bills, this committee cannot, by default, hold public evidence sessions on backbench bills. For a reform of this significance, though, we should expect pressure from some MPs for an exception to be made to allow outside bodies – such as campaign groups, religious organisations and medical professionals – to submit evidence. This would delay the bill’s passage a little, though this need not be lengthy.

    Challenge 3: report stage

    The bill’s biggest test is likely to be at report stage – most likely on April 25 next year. This is when the bill returns to the House of Commons chamber.

    Conventional wisdom is that this stage is often fatal for contentious backbench bills, since opponents can propose large numbers of amendments to the legislation, requiring many separate decisions to be made and time to be drained. Even if supporters attempt to move the closure, with enough amendments they may still run out of time. Something like this nearly happened on an EU referendum bill in 2013.

    Yet, this conventional wisdom may be outdated. The speaker of the house routinely groups report-stage amendments together, reducing the number of separate decisions – and in recent years the norm has been a single group. Since 2019, there has never been more than one group of amendments up for consideration on any private member’s bill. If the speaker follows this recent practice, it may be easier to get the bill through report stage.

    Challenge 4: out of time?

    It is quite possible the assisted dying bill could overcome all these procedural hurdles. But if not, ministers may need to step in to set aside some of the government’s own parliamentary time to discuss the bill further.

    Government time for backbench bills has been rare in recent years, although it did occur in 2019 during the passage of a bill to strengthen the laws around female genital mutilation. But there are some striking historical precedents.

    In the 1960s, private members’ bills were used to pass major social reforms on the laws around homosexuality and abortion, and to abolish the death penalty. In all three cases, the government stepped in to dedicate extra time in the face of attempts to slow these bills’ progress.

    Challenge 5: up to the Lords

    If the bill makes it past these stages, then it also has a good chance of completing its final House of Commons (third reading) stage. But it would then need to complete a similar process in the House of Lords. While there are not quite the same time pressures in this chamber – notably, it does not have the same system of 13 Fridays – there is also no programming for any bills.

    It is hard to predict exactly how the Lords would respond to an assisted dying bill. There have been multiple previous attempts to legislate on this matter over the years. The last time one reached committee stage, in 2015, it got bogged down with amendments and made it no further.

    Leadbeater’s bill will be helped by another bill on assisted dying, started in the House of Lords by Labour peer Charlie Falconer. This is scheduled for debate in the coming months and may help identify and resolve some of the detailed points of contention – though this is not guaranteed.

    It would be unusual, though not impossible, for the Lords to fail to pass a private member’s bill agreed by the House of Commons. Since 2010, there appear to have been only two that were actively held up in the Lords – as opposed to just running out of time. Even so, a small number of determined opponents to assisted dying could make life difficult.

    Were this to happen – at this point an extreme hypothetical – one option available to MPs would be to re-introduce the bill in the subsequent session, perhaps from the new crop of ballot bills. Under the provisions of the Parliament Act(s), this bill might then be eligible to become law without the assent of the Lords. Such a situation very nearly occurred this year on another backbench bill, on hunting trophies, though the timing of the general election intervened.

    Despite these procedural hurdles, the assisted dying bill has a reasonably good chance of passing into law. In the end, much will depend on whether MPs are willing to back this change, and how determined they are to do so.

    Daniel Gover does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Assisted dying bill enters parliament – how likely is it to become law? – https://theconversation.com/assisted-dying-bill-enters-parliament-how-likely-is-it-to-become-law-241498

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Three ways the upcoming UN biodiversity summit could make a difference

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Harriet Bulkeley, Professor of Geography, Durham University

    Projects on the Indus River in Pakistan are helping to tackle biodiversity loss. Salik Javed/Shutterstock

    When negotiations at Cop15 – the UN’s biodiversity conference – ended in December 2022, many delegates breathed a sigh of relief.

    Threatening snowstorms outside the convention centre in Montreal, Canada seemed to lift just as the political weather changed and the long-awaited Kunming-Montreal global biodiversity framework was agreed. It’s mission: to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030 in order to achieve the ultimate goal of a society living in harmony with nature by 2050.

    Fast forward two years and governments, businesses, representatives of Indigenous people and local communities, experts from environmental groups such as the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and scientists will gather for the follow-up Cop16 meeting in Cali, Colombia, from October 21. Many due to attend, including myself, wonder whether the promise made to “halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030” is achievable.

    Initial signs are not promising. For starters, no international targets for biodiversity have ever been met.

    Only a handful of countries, including China, Canada and France, have submitted new national biodiversity plans demonstrating how they will implement the promises made two years ago. Most countries, including the UK, (that’s more than 80% in total) haven’t submitted their full plans.

    Countries can also submit updates for the 23 targets listed in the framework. The UK and others have submitted targets such as promising to reduce the impact of pollution on nature and ensuring that 30% of land is effectively protected in line with the framework.

    But crucial questions remain about how those goals will be reached. To make Cop16 effective, three things need to happen.

    1. Decide on a plan

    When delegates gather in Cali, questions of implementation will be front and centre of the negotiations. The first challenge is that the approach for monitoring progress on all 23 targets – including issues such as improving access to nature in cities, reducing harmful subsidies and restoring 30% of degraded ecosystems – is yet to be agreed.

    For some, the approach that has been developed so far lacks ambition in crucial areas. Indicators suggested for monitoring progress on reducing the impacts of consumption on nature remain very weak for example. For others, it may prove too challenging.

    For example, countries with limited access to data might not be able to track alien species or assess how critical services provided by nature to make societies more resilient might be affected by climate change. Getting agreement at the Cop16 negotiations will be vital in order to hold countries to account as the 2030 deadline set to achieve all of the targets approaches.

    2. Find the funds

    Another crucial issue is funding: who will pay for the action required? The global biodiversity framework fund (GBFF) was established in 2023 to provide financial support.

    Yet so far, it has only attracted contributions of around US$230 billion (£176 billion) from a small group of countries including Canada, the UK, Germany, Japan and Spain. Leaders gathering in Cali, and especially those from developing countries, are calling for more funding and for greater control over how it is allocated.

    The next UN biodiversity conference will be held in Cali, Columbia from October 21 to November 1.
    Tudoran Andrei/Shutterstock

    3. Make biodiversity matter

    A third debate will decide how best to ensure that biodiversity action is mainstreamed across governments, businesses and communities.

    In Montreal, countries agreed to make sure that the impacts on nature were considered across different policy areas (such as building new roads or developing new energy sources) and in economic sectors, from fishing to agriculture and mining to tech.

    They agreed that groups most likely to be affected by the loss of nature, including Indigenous people and local communities, women and youth, should help make key decisions. While targets such as protecting 30% of the land and sea for nature are crucial, progress will only happen if nature is put on everyone’s bottom line.

    Delivering real change

    The urgent need for action is not lost on delegates gathering in Cali. There is a real risk that the promise countries made in Montreal to deliver “transformative action by governments, and regional and local authorities, with the involvement of all of society” won’t be met.

    But there are some hopeful signs of transformative change to conserve and restore nature and ensure its sustainable use.

    Take, for example, the Tree Equity Partnership in Detroit, US. This partnership between the city, US-based charity American Forests and the local non-profit charity Greening of Detroit aims to plant 75,000 trees. This will create places of beauty, biodiversity and climate resilience in underserved neighbourhoods and generate 300 new jobs in the city.

    In Pakistan, the Living Indus initiative is an umbrella organisation that has identified 25 projects involving local and regional governments, businesses and communities working together to restore the ecological health of the Indus river.

    Businesses are also calling for real change. More than 170 investors have signed a pledge developed by a coalition of financial institutions called the Finance for Biodiversity Foundation to take action for nature across their portfolios.

    New science-based standards are being developed to drive the mainstreaming of biodiversity action through their companies and associated supply chains. Cop16 is expected to see increased interest from the private sector and a focus on tackling climate change and biodiversity together.

    These projects are successfully tackling the root causes of global biodiversity loss. They integrate solutions and deal with social and environmental issues – poverty and exploitation, climate risks and land use change. Tackling these problems is just as vital as the need for sustainable production and consumption plus investment that works for, not against, nature.

    Projects such as these are the ones that give scientists and conservationists like me – and organisations like WWF that I work with – hope. We want to see more projects that take action on nature, climate and social justice together. If Cop16 can make even a small step in this direction, the world will be travelling towards making real progress by the end of this decade.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 35,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Harriet Bulkeley receives funding from the European Commission and currently serves as an advisor to the UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

    – ref. Three ways the upcoming UN biodiversity summit could make a difference – https://theconversation.com/three-ways-the-upcoming-un-biodiversity-summit-could-make-a-difference-240225

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Award-winning bullfighting documentary likely to anger aficionados and abolitionists alike

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Duncan Wheeler, Professor in Spanish Studies, University of Leeds

    Every year the Spanish ministry of culture awards prizes for different artistic disciplines. From next year onwards, the country’s national bullfighting award will be withdrawn. The current Spanish minister of culture, the Barcelona-born Green politician Ernest Urtasun, supports the prohibition of what has long been known as Spain’s “national fiesta”.

    At the awards ceremony held at the Reina Sofia Museum last week, the minister refused to applaud this year’s winner for “sustained excellence in bullfighting”, Julián López El Juli, the recently retired Madrid-born matador. El Juli retorted to the slight by holding out his hand and publicly calling out the minister’s lack of respect as evidence that he was unfit to hold office.

    Bullfighting predates football as a form of mass entertainment, and has been a source of inspiration for artists and intellectuals for centuries. It still has its followers in the present day, but young urban Spaniards are increasingly sensitive to the undeniable cruelty involved. Bullfighting was banned in Catalonia in 2011. Bullfights, known as corridas, are still staged in much of the rest of Spain, but it can be career suicide for artists, politicians or intellectuals to be associated with them.

    So I, like many in Spain and the Basque Country, didn’t expect the jury of the 72nd San Sebastian Film Festival to award its highest accolade, the Concha de Oro (Golden Shell), to a bullfighting documentary. The director of Tardes de Soledad (Afternoons of Solitude) is Albert Serra, an iconoclastic filmmaker from Gerona, a fiercely pro-independence province of Catalonia.

    The trailer for Tardes de Soledad.

    For five years, Serra and his crew have been following the exploits of two rising stars with the ambition to become figuras, the term for that handful of elite matadors like El Juli, who appear on the most lucrative and prestigious bills.

    Bullfighting and the screen arts have history in and beyond Spain. During cinema’s infancy, early filmmakers the Lumière brothers filmed matadors in Madrid. At annual village fairs, Spaniards would pay to enter a tent and watch recordings of professional corridas. The Valencian Vicente Blasco Ibánez’s 1908 novel Blood and Sand has a strong claim to being the earliest literary text to be written with a future film adaptation in mind.

    In 1951, Hollywood actress Ava Gardner (a close friend of Ernest Hemingway, author of bullfighting novel Death in the Afternoon) starred alongside Catalan matador Mario Cabré in Pandora and the Flying Dutchman, which featured corridas in Gerona (the city’s bullring was demolished in 2006). Spanish television started broadcasting bullfights in 1956. Nearly 70 years later, Movistar Spain shut down its dedicated bullfighting channel in March 2023.

    Oscar-winning writer and director Pedro Almodóvar – who received a lifetime achievement award at San Sebastian this year – has his Madrid offices close to the world’s premiere bullring, Las Ventas. In 1986 he portrayed the world of bullfighting in Matador, starring a very young Antonio Banderas, later returning to the subject in Talk to Her (2002).

    This film, which won Almodovar the Oscar for best screenplay, contains scenes in which a female matador is gored in the picturesque bullring in Aranjuez. The British Board of Film Censorship insisted on cuts, and Almodóvar faced legal challenges from animal rights groups. According to Spanish law, corridas are permitted and can be filmed. The legal situation becomes thornier if a bull is killed by a professional matador for the sole purposes of the event being captured on film.

    The trailer for Talk to Her.

    Documenting the glory and the horror

    Nothing is staged for Serra’s documentary. He followed the Peruvian Andrés Roca Rey, a box-office phenomenon often dismissed by serious aficionados as a crass populist; and the more refined Pablo Aguado, a native of Seville.

    Serra connected better with Roca Rey, capturing his fears and solitude in an often hostile professional environment. Pay-for-view television channel Canal+ set a new gold standard for broadcasting bullfights with technical panache. Serra makes no attempt to replicate this labour. Placing the camera at the eye level of the bull and the matador results in a far more graphic and gruesome spectacle.

    The Catalan filmmaker is amongst world cinema’s masters of sound design, and the audience is privy to the bull’s breathing as well as conversations between the matador and his team once the afternoon’s activities in the sand have come to a bloody conclusion.

    Tardes de Soledad is likely to anger and unnerve aficionados and abolitionists alike. Industrial farming is arguably crueller than bullfighting, but recognising this fact is not automatically a defence of the “national fiesta”. It might just be that any hypothetical prohibition needs to framed alongside a wider reassessment of our relationship with, and responsibility to, non-human creatures.

    Some abolitionists suggest that, even though bulls are sold for meat afterwards, it is death and torture being employed for entertainment that renders corridas so problematic. Psychological desensitisation is a real risk, especially when children are in attendance.

    Aficionados claim bullfighting is a rare opportunity to address our own mortality in a society in which death and nature are increasingly kept at a distance. Almodóvar’s pristinely shot bullfighting scenes nevertheless show how ritualised beauty – the vivid stylised outfits, the music, the choreography and the architecture – often divert attention from the blood.

    Serra’s harrowing footage might even shake some enthusiasts out of their complacency. Can so much animal and human suffering be justified in the name of an ancestral art? Conversely, Tardes de Soledad registers the poetry, pain and pathos of bullfighting in and beyond the arena. Dialogues between Roca Rey and his entourage establish a new benchmark for depicting the interior world of a matador, more unforgiving and empathetic than anything by Hemingway.

    A rallying call at anti-bullfighting demonstrations is: “It’s not culture, it’s torture.” Serra’s documentary warrants the Concha de Oro for showing the terms are not mutually exclusive.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Duncan Wheeler does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Award-winning bullfighting documentary likely to anger aficionados and abolitionists alike – https://theconversation.com/award-winning-bullfighting-documentary-likely-to-anger-aficionados-and-abolitionists-alike-241381

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why breakdancing can give you a cone-shaped head

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adam Taylor, Professor and Director of the Clinical Anatomy Learning Centre, Lancaster University

    Master1305/Shutterstock

    For those of a certain age, Coneheads is an iconic 90s film. But for breakdancers, it seems, developing a cone-shaped head can be an occupational hazard.

    According to a 2024 medical case report, a breakdancer who’d been performing for 19 years was treated for “headspin hole”, a condition also known as “breakdancer bulge” that’s unique to breakdancers. It entails a cone shaped mass developing on top of the scalp after repetitive head-spinning. Additional symptoms can include hair loss and sometimes pain around the lump.

    Approximately 30% of breakdancers report hair loss and inflammation of their scalp from head-spinning. A headspin hole is caused by the body trying to protect itself. The repeated trauma from head-spinning causes the epicranial aponeurosis – a layer of connective tissue similar to a tendon, running from the back of your head to the front – to thicken along with the layer of fat under the skin on top of the head in an attempt to protect the bones of skull from injury.

    The body causes a similar protective reaction to friction on the hands and feet, where callouses form to spread the pressure and protect the underlying tissues from damage. Everyday repetitive activities from holding smartphones or heavy weights through to poorly fitting shoes can result in callouses.

    But a cone-shaped head isn’t the only injury to which breakdancers are prone, however. Common issues can include wrist, knee, hip, ankle, foot and elbow injuries, and moves such as the “windmill” and the “backspin” can cause bursitis – inflammation of the fluid filled sacs that protect the vertebrae of the spine. A headspin hole isn’t the worst injury you could sustain from breakdancing either. One dancer broke their neck but thankfully they were lucky enough not to have any major complications.



    Read more:
    How do breakdancers avoid breaking their necks?

    Others, such as Ukrainian breakdancer Anna Ponomarenko, have experienced pinched nerves that have left them paralysed. Ponomarenko recovered to represent her country in the Paris 2024 Olympics.

    As with other sports, it’s unsurprising to hear that the use of protective equipment results in the reduction of injuries in breakdancing too.

    But breakdancers aren’t the only ones to develop cone shaped heads.

    Newborns

    Some babies are born with a conical head after their pliable skull has been squeezed and squashed during the journey through the vaginal canal and the muscular contractions of mother’s uterus.

    A misshapen head can also be caused by caput secundum, where fluid collects under the skin, above the skull bones. Usually, this condition resolves itself within a few days. Babies who’ve been delivered using a vacuum assisted cup (known as a Ventouse) – where the cup is applied to the top of the baby’s head to pull them out – can develop a similar fluid lump called a chignon.

    Vacuum assisted delivery can also result in a more significant lump and bruising called a cephalohematoma, where blood vessels in the bones of the skull rupture. This is twice as common in boys than in girls and resolves within two weeks to six months.

    If you’ve ever seen newborns wearing tiny hats in the first few hours of their life, then one of these conditions may be the reason.

    Some children may also present with “cone-head” due to craniosynostosis, which occurs in about one in every 2,000-2,500 live births.

    Newborn skulls are made up of lots of small bony plates that aren’t fused together, which enables babies’ brains to grow without restriction. Usually, once the brain reaches a slower growth pace that the bones can keep up with, the plates fuse together. In craniosynostosis, the plates fuse together too early creating differently shaped heads. Surgery can prevent brain growth restriction but is usually unnecessary if the child hasn’t been identified as having an shaped head by six months of age.

    Adam Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why breakdancing can give you a cone-shaped head – https://theconversation.com/why-breakdancing-can-give-you-a-cone-shaped-head-241182

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Haegue Yang’s Leap Year is a bold and diverse show mixing cultural references and folk traditions

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Martin Lang, Senior Lecturer and Programme Leader in Fine Art , University of Lincoln

    Leap Year, a new exhibition of work by South Korean artist Haegue Yang at the Southbank Centre’s Hayward Gallery, is a bold and diverse display of contemporary art, mixing materials and ideas in unexpected ways.

    Those with a knowledge of art history over the last 70 years, like me, will appreciate how Yang plays with and combines various art traditions. For example, her use of LED, neon strip-lights, steel, text, projected video and even smell are deliberate references to materials commonly used in contemporary art.

    Yang’s art isn’t particularly “Korean”, but why should it be? Like many artists from around the world, Yang has been influenced by western pop culture. Coca-Cola and Hollywood movies have been as much part of life in South Korea since the Korean war as in Britain. While some see this as a downside of globalisation, many in South Korea embrace these influences, seeing them as a sign of progress. This fusion of cultures is a fact of life for Yang, and it runs through her art.

    In the wall text at the exhibition, Yang claims to have developed a “culturally hybrid visual language”. Her work references modernism, minimalism and conceptual art. Large black-and-white photo collages that bring to mind early 20th-century dada art (a post-war movement that was anti-bourgeois and often satirical and nonsensical) provide the backdrop for sculptures mounted on wheeled frames, reminiscent of stage sets or even fairground rides.

    Another resembles a shower cubicle, but with grab handles on the outside. The title, Sol LeWitt Vehicle, points to the conceptual artist Sol LeWitt. Geometric floor patterns recall the work of Gabriel Orozco, another well-known contemporary artist. In one room, the walls are painted in a blue that’s close to Yves Klein’s famous International Klein Blue (a shade of pure ultramarine he claimed to have invented and which features in his most famous works), although the paint was sourced locally by gallery staff.

    Connecting with tradition

    Yang is particularly interested in the ways contemporary art connects with older folk and craft traditions. For example, she explores weaving practices from different cultures, even working with Filipino artisans. These pieces sit alongside Reflected Red-Blue Cubist Dancing Mask, a sculpture that takes inspiration from how early cubist artists saw African masks as pure aesthetic objects, rather than ritualistic tools.

    Yang’s interpretation has wheels and handles, allowing it to be worn and used performatively, restoring its function, but with a modernist aesthetic twist.

    Her interest in folk traditions goes deeper. During the COVID lockdown in Seoul, she began exploring paper cutting, a traditional Korean craft often linked with shamanic rituals. From there, she expanded her research to include paper-cutting practices from other parts of the world, like wycinanki from eastern Europe and amate from Mexico.

    In her Mesmerising Mesh series, she uses traditional Korean paper (hanji), as well as Japanese washi and graph paper, to create intricate collages. The wooden structures she builds around these works resemble shrines from different cultures. Though some viewers might think of them as something more familiar, like the decor in a western Chinese restaurant. In fact, these designs were inspired by the Hmong people of Southeast Asia.

    In the west, since the second world war, the idea of universal art has often been viewed as tied to colonialism or cultural dominance, yet we embrace universal ideas like healthcare and human rights as progressive. Yang’s work suggests that art, too, has the power to bridge divides and foster empathy, breaking down barriers between cultures. Art may vary greatly across traditions, but at its core, it speaks to our shared humanity – a message as relevant as ever in our polarised times.

    Haegue Yang’s Leap Year: Universal Art for a Divided World is on at the Hayward Gallery in London from October 9 2024 to January 5 2025


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Martin Lang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Haegue Yang’s Leap Year is a bold and diverse show mixing cultural references and folk traditions – https://theconversation.com/haegue-yangs-leap-year-is-a-bold-and-diverse-show-mixing-cultural-references-and-folk-traditions-241508

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Behavioural science: could supermarket loyalty cards nudge us to make healthier choices?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Magda Osman, Professor of Policy Impact, University of Leeds

    Prostock-studio/Shutterstock

    Ken Murphy, CEO of the British multinational supermarket chain Tesco, recently said at a conference that Tesco “could use Clubcard data to nudge customers towards healthier choices”.

    So how would this work, and do we want it? Our recent study, published in the Scientific Journal of Research and Reviews, provides an answer.

    Loyalty schemes have been around as far back as the 1980s, with the introduction of airlines’ frequent flyer programmes.

    Advancements in loyalty schemes have been huge, with some even using gamified approaches, such as leaderboards, trophies and treasure hunts, to keep us engaged. The loyalty principle relies on a form of social exchange, namely reciprocity.

    The ongoing reciprocal relationship means that we use a good or service regularly because we trust the service provider, we are satisfied with the service, and we deem the rewards we get as reasonable – be they discounts, vouchers or gifts.

    In exchange, we accept that, in many cases, loyalty schemes collect data on us. Our purchasing history, often tied to our demographics, generates improvements in the delivery of the service.

    If we accept this, then we continue to benefit from reward schemes, such as promotional offers or other discounts. The effectiveness depends not only on making attractive offers to us for things we are interested in purchasing, but also other discounted items that we hadn’t considered buying.

    Does it work?

    So is this the future? The first issue is whether we’re happy to have data collected on us. There is a trade-off between the level of personalisation we want, and the amount of data we are willing to give. Research has shown that the more personalised the schemes are, the more alarmed we are about the crossing of privacy boundaries. For example, many of us dislike tailored communication about services through the use of chatbots.

    The second, related point is that loyalty scheme data is, and will continue to be, of enormous value to third-party organisations. For instance, market research can use loyalty scheme data to track consumer trends more accurately. Researchers can use the data to make inferences about health-related behaviour.

    As valuable as the data from loyalty schemes is for scientific purposes, not all shoppers are happy with having their data shared in this way. In one 2023 survey conducted by Yasemin Hirst from Lancaster University and colleagues of 1,539 people, 39% said they were unwilling to share their personal data with academic institutions, while 56.9% didn’t want to share with private organisations.

    What data people were willing to share also varied: for example, people were happier sharing loyalty card data (51.8%) than social media data (30.4%) for research purposes. In general, people worried about privacy as well as misuses of their data.

    All of this points to data privacy and permission being needed for sharing personal data with third-party advertisers and data brokers for people shopping online.

    Tesco may try to nudge us towards healthier choices.
    Steve Travelguide/Shutterstock

    The final aspect is what the data reveals. Data from loyalty schemes does not present a complete picture of a shopper. We mix and match where we buy our food because of our budget and our geographical location. And some retailers have greater coverage and delivery in rural areas than others – further influencing our behaviour.

    This also means that our degree of loyalty provides only a partial picture of what we end up buying, and how healthy our habits are.

    New research

    In our recent research, Sarah Jenkins and I conducted a study to look at issues related to what Murphy had in mind. We asked 389 people to evaluate ways their grocery shopping behaviour could be influenced.

    We looked at three categories. One included financial incentives and discount offers. The second was classic “nudging” methods, such as labelling healthy or green options, campaigns or education schemes.

    Finally, we looked at technological incentives that could be implemented via smart phones or laptops when making online purchases. For example, there could be suggestions as to nutritional choices, or an automated system that would select only healthy food choices. Alternatively, the system could score your shopping choice according to how healthy they were.

    People assessed all of these options in terms of whether they could help boost healthy and green choices. Generally, participants preferred the financial methods overall, specifically discounts on healthy food options (44.7%). They also judged taxes on unhealthy food items as effective.

    Campaigns for sustainability (6.3%) and automated choices for sustainability (6.5%), such as online shopping algorithms only offering us sustainable options, were least preferred. One possible reason for this might be a lack of understanding of what sustainability actually means.

    Behavioural and financial methods were judged to be slightly more ethical than technological methods, though most people found all options fairly ethical.

    That said, techniques to nudge people’s behaviour in the right direction don’t always work. People like or dislike them depending on a mix of factors, including whether it seems effective, whether it is ethical and whether they actually have a desire to change their behaviour.

    Future options

    Across the different ways market researchers study our shopping trends, the same pattern emerges: about 25% of the time, we buy our groceries online. The precise percentage varies by country and by foodstuffs we buy, but in general the forecasts is that it will increase to about 45% in the next 5-10 years.

    This will mean further innovations in loyalty schemes, designed both to attract new customers as well as maintain the current base. Retailers therefore need to be aware of the shortcomings of such approaches, including that they don’t work on people who don’t want to change their behaviour, that they only provide limited information, and that there may be a point where services are so personalised that many people become unwilling to share their data.

    Some of us will continue to enjoy the benefits of these schemes, so long as we have the chance to exercise choice. Indeed, some want to have suggestions made that ease the selection of healthy or sustainable options, but others don’t. What matters is having a choice.

    Magda Osman receives funding from ESRC, Research England, British Academy, EPSRC, Food Standards Agency.

    – ref. Behavioural science: could supermarket loyalty cards nudge us to make healthier choices? – https://theconversation.com/behavioural-science-could-supermarket-loyalty-cards-nudge-us-to-make-healthier-choices-241283

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why The Rock beats politicians for trust and leadership – and what would-be rulers can learn

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Carl Senior, Reader in Behavioural Sciences, Aston University

    Celebrities can have huge influence and reach enormous audiences. That’s why Kamala Harris was happy to recently gain the endorsement of musician Taylor Swift.

    Due to their media attention and massive fan bases, some Hollywood stars and musicians can appear more powerful than traditional politicians. And these perceptions of influence may also translate into actual impact.

    Indeed, some celebrities have taken up causes, using their fame to overtly push for change (for instance, Bob Geldof and Princess Diana). Others endorse politicians, or successfully run for office themselves (for instance, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Ronald Reagan).

    While it may seem like celebrities who pivot to politics are able to trade on their pre-existing notoriety, few celebrities are well known beyond their fan bases and many people would expect them to lack the gravitas of world leaders.

    However, results of our recent exploratory study conducted in the UK shows that at least one celebrity, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, stands out. He achieved public recognition, leadership and trust ratings as high as the most well-known politicians.

    Indeed, our study found that The Rock’s recognition was on par with the Nobel prize-winning, two-term US president Barack Obama. He was also considered more trustworthy than many politicians.

    In the study, we invited 251 participants to evaluate the faces of 40 seasoned politicians and celebrities to assess their leadership potential and perceived personality traits.

    Only six of the faces had close to universal recognition. Former US presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump, former UK prime minister Boris Johnson and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson scored 90% or above. By contrast, US president Joe Biden and Russian president Vladimir Putin were each recognised by 80%.

    Interestingly, The Rock was also judged to be more considerate, competent, credible, intelligent and trustworthy than most politicians.

    When asked to indicate how strongly participants felt about each figure’s leadership potential, the results were surprising. Biden scored 64%, higher than Putin’s 56%, which was in turn higher than Trump and Boris Johnson who both received 42%.

    But a much larger percentage, 72%, rated The Rock as a strong leader, only bettered by Obama’s score of 87%. In our statistical models, two key personality traits, competency and credibility, predicted The Rock’s perceived potential as a national leader.

    The Rock’s fame, stemming from his wrestling career persona, television presence, and Hollywood stardom, seem to demonstrate the impact of a well-maintained media image. His expertise in wrestling’s “kayfabe” style of performance (a dramatic wrestling style that is presented as genuine) has greatly boosted his public persona as an authentic “nice guy”.

    This early experience, and a strong screen presence, is likely to have contributed to leadership scores similar to Obama. Here it seems that The Rock’s heavily cultivated media personality has translated into perceptions of effective leadership.

    This idea connects with the theory of mediated authenticity , which suggests that positive perceptions arise when audiences view media figures in a favourable light. The Rock’s wrestling persona has allowed him to build a connection to his fans and he seems to have developed this further with his Hollywood roles.

    What can Trump and Harris learn?

    Politicians must also connect with the public. Boris Johnson, for example, did well in the 2019 UK election because he knew how to connect and leveraged this ability to his advantage.

    However, leaders also need to be seen as knowledgeable and trustworthy to make an enduring positive difference.

    The Rock was asked about political ambitions.

    Some theorists of power argue that social influence derives from being well-liked, not just being famous. Of course, The Rock is famous for his nice guy image, along with his movie catalogue and perpetually perfect physique. His perceived leadership potential could come from being both popular and seen as a good role model.

    The Rock’s potential has been spotted by political parties. He describes himself as an independent and back in 2023 he revealed that he had been approached by multiple political parties about possibly running for office.

    Can you be a ‘nice’ populist?

    The last few years has seen the rise of numerous political leaders around the world, who have been labelled with the term “populist”. Leading figures on this list include Trump, India’s prime minister Narendra Modi, former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro and Boris Johnson. However, these leaders tend not to be highly trusted.

    The erosion of trust in politicians and political systems is a significant issue that can lead to decreased engagement with the democratic process, regardless of political level. This ultimately results in a civic structure that fails to represent the people it is meant to serve.

    With the US presidential election just weeks away, and still virtually tied, political strategists for both of the major parties must confront a key question: how much trust does each candidate have from the public?

    Like it or not, The Rock’s wrestling persona relied on building a genuine connection with fans through his kayfabe-style performance, and his friendly image. The careful cultivation of this has given him enduring popularity and, as an unintended consequence of that performance, leadership appeal on the national stage.

    When you are perceived as being a genuinely nice leader, our early research suggests, trust will follow. Something that more politicians clearly need to understand.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why The Rock beats politicians for trust and leadership – and what would-be rulers can learn – https://theconversation.com/why-the-rock-beats-politicians-for-trust-and-leadership-and-what-would-be-rulers-can-learn-236987

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Israel-Iran and the nine stages of how conflicts can escalate and get out of control

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Matthew Powell, Teaching Fellow in Strategic and Air Power Studies, University of Portsmouth

    Andy.LIU/Shutterstock

    Tensions are running high in the Middle East. The murderous attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7 2023 kicked off a spiral of violence in the region. That has culminated, a year later, in Israel mounting a ground invasion of Lebanon. The invasion, which Israel says aims to confront and destroy Hezbollah, follows 12 months of tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran, which have gradually escalated in intensity.

    Given that Hezbollah is closely associated and supported by Iran, there is mounting concern that this conflict could become a major flashpoint in international relations. The worry is that this war might provide the spark that causes the next global conflict.

    To understand how dangerous the situation could be, it’s worth looking at the theory of conflict escalation. In 1997, Austrian economist Friedrich Glasl published his nine-stage model of conflict escalation, which is generally accepted as the most sophisticated study of how conflicts can develop from disputes to all-out conflict (a step he gives the rather ominous name of “Together into the abyss”).

    Nine stages of confict escalation.
    Graphic by Swinnall, original from Sampi. Derived from: Konflikteskalation nach Glasl.svg, CC BY-NC

    The first level is when a conflict is readily or easily resolved, but when a resolution is not achieved, positions on either side of the argument harden and frustration begin to mount. The next step naturally occurs when conflict parties seek to make their case, hoping to gain advantage in the court of global opinion.

    Stage three of the model sees the adversaries beginning to take action. Neither side wants to yield advantage to the other, while any sense that discussion might mitigate the conflict has disappeared in mutual antagonism and mistrust. Accordingly at stage four, the conflict parties resort to an “us v them” rhetoric in an attempt to build coalitions and attract support. Stage five, described as “loss of face”, is when one or other of the antagonists feels they have become tarnished in the eyes of the community as a whole. Reputation no longer matters as much as achieving their ends. Sometimes one side or the other commits an act that it feels has isolated it, which only serves to harden it position.

    In stage six, threats or ultimatums are issued. This can lead to hostilities spiralling as the conflict parties seek credibility by putting a timescale on a threat, which in turn will heighten the pressure on both sides. This can also bind another of the warring parties to a course of action from where there is little opportunity to retreat. This facilitates the move to stage seven, where the antagonists begin to trade the first limited blows in response to the threats they have made.

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    In stage eight, the offensive blows intensify, with the focus on trying to injure – or even destroy – the adversary’s capacity for response or call into question the legitimacy of the other side’s leader. Often this can lead to one or another of the parties fragmenting into warring factions, making the situation increasingly uncontrollable.

    As the conflict hurtles into stage nine, the threat to one or another of the parties has become existential, who are now falling “together into the abyss”. All sense of caution is abandoned as the only goal is the total annihilation of the adversary. A state of total war.

    What stage are we at?

    After years of animosity and denunciation on both sides, the conflict between Israel and Iran has now progressed to the stage that both sides have exchanged limited blows against each other. Reports have linked Iran to the planning of the Hamas attack on October 7. Tehran has recently denied having any part in the massacre. Hezbollah, which is more closely linked to the Islamic Republic, has carried out a year-long barrage of rockets from Lebanon into northern Israel. In response, Israel has now directly struck against Iran’s proxy, invading southern Lebanon to engage and attempt to destroy Hezbollah.

    Both sides clearly want to demonstrate their power and influence in the region. But the stakes could rise if Iran feels an urgent need to protect its proxies. For Israel, its leaders have long argued that its very existence is at stake.

    In terms of Glasl’s stages of escalation, the two countries appear to have reached stage seven, where they are launching limited blows against each other while avoiding direct confrontation. Both want to make their adversary consider whether the cost of continuing is worth the potential rewards that can be gained.

    Iran’s air attacks on Israel suggest that while Iran can see that its regional position is being threatened and is still seeking to support the non-state actors in Gaza and Lebanon, the way in which they have conducted their attacks suggest that Tehran does not feel itself powerful enough to escalate further than it already has.

    The only direct blows the two powers have launched against each other have been from the air. Iran has now launched two (large) barrages of rockets against Israel, one in April this year and again at the end of September. Both bombardments were announced in advance and neither has resulted in Israeli casualties.

    Israel responded in April with a targeted strike against an Iranian airbase close to one of the country’s nuclear installations. It has yet to directly respond to the latest Iranian barrage, but Netanyahu has said Israel would target Iran’s military installations “based on Israel’s national security needs”.

    Analysts believe that both sides – so far at least – are using these limited strikes to signal their unwillingness to escalate. But there is a great deal at stake. Iran will feel its position as a regional power threatened by Israel’s ground campaign in Lebanon. Meanwhile Israel has repeatedly declared that it is fighting for the security of its people. Neither appears to want a wider conflict – and their allies certainly wouldn’t encourage them if they did.

    So it’s clear that – up to now at least – neither Israel nor Iran wants to venture any further down the road to “the abyss” as envisaged by Glasl’s nine-stage model.

    Matthew Powell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Israel-Iran and the nine stages of how conflicts can escalate and get out of control – https://theconversation.com/israel-iran-and-the-nine-stages-of-how-conflicts-can-escalate-and-get-out-of-control-240566

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: B.C. election: Party proposals on climate action point in opposite directions

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kathryn Harrison, Professor of Political Science, University of British Columbia

    With affordability, housing and health care at the top of voters’ minds in British Columbia, they haven’t heard much about climate change with less than a week to go until the provincial election.

    In fact, between B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad acknowledging that “man” is impacting the climate and the NDP’s reversal on the carbon tax, casual observers might conclude that the parties have converged on climate.

    But a closer look at the platforms and policy announcements of the province’s Conservatives, New Democrats and Greens reveals fundamental differences on almost every climate-related policy.

    While there is uncertainty about how much B.C.’s emissions would decline under another NDP government, they would almost certainly increase under a new Conservative one.

    Climate action measures

    The parties differ on the threat posed by climate change and urgency of action. The NDP and Green platforms both acknowledge the “climate crisis,” and each devotes a chapter on protecting communities from extreme weather, such as flooding, wildfires and heat domes like the one that occurred in 2021.



    Read more:
    How an ‘atmospheric river’ drenched British Columbia and led to floods and mudslides

    In contrast, the Conservatives claim climate change is not a crisis and that wildfires are a natural occurrence, without acknowledging how the blazes are amplified by climate change-driven heat and drought. The party favours adaptation technology over a “doom cult” perspective.

    The three parties also present very different visions of B.C.’s economic future. Both the NDP and Greens emphasize the province’s comparative advantage in clean energy, and commit to skills training for the renewable energy and clean tech sectors.

    In contrast, the Conservative proposal for a “free and prosperous” B.C. does not mention climate change or clean energy, while the party’s “clean energy” announcement embraces natural gas heating and oil-powered vehicles.

    The Conservatives propose to scrap “any and all carbon taxes,” which suggests both the consumer and industrial carbon taxes. Although the party indicates it would do so “regardless of what happens in Ottawa,” the current federal government would respond by imposing both federal carbon taxes, as it has in other provinces.

    The NDP would repeal only the consumer tax if the federal government does. The Greens would retain both taxes and remove sectoral benchmarks below which industrial polluters don’t pay the tax.

    On electricity, the NDP proposes to double renewable electricity capacity by 2050 to substitute for declining consumption of fossil fuels. The party highlights BC Hydro’s recent call for clean power, which yielded proposals for triple the capacity originally sought.

    The Greens similarly propose to expand rooftop solar and other renewables. The Conservatives welcome “all power sources,” including renewables, but also natural gas plants and nuclear.

    Flood waters cover highway 1 in Abbotsford, B.C., in November 2021.
    THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward

    Managing emissions

    Transportation contributes the largest share of B.C.’s emissions at 35 per cent. The Conservatives would repeal the zero-emissions vehicle mandate and low-carbon fuel standard. The other two parties would retain those policies, and both commit to expanding electric vehicle charging networks.

    Oil and gas accounts for the next largest share of B.C.’s emissions at 20 per cent. The NDP election platform commits to implement a cap on oil and gas emissions. In addition, the NDP government announced in 2023 that future liquid natural gas (LNG) approvals will be conditional on net-zero operations within the province.

    The Conservative Party seeks to double LNG capacity, without mention of either an oil-and-gas cap or net-zero commitment. For their part, the Greens would reject all future LNG development, ban fracking and manage a decline of gas production.

    Buildings contribute another 15 per cent of provincial emissions. The NDP government has published documents that propose provincewide adoption of a zero-emission standard for new buildings and high-efficiency heating equipment standards that would significantly reduce gas consumption in existing buildings.

    The NDP and Greens both promise financial support for rooftop solar, home retrofits and heat pumps. In contrast, the Conservatives argue, without evidence, that the grid cannot support heat pumps and promise to repeal the voluntary zero-carbon building code and a “ban” on natural gas heating.

    B.C. has been a climate laggard

    B.C. has been slow to act on climate. That will make it very challenging to meet our 2030 emissions target.

    But progress will only be made by strengthening climate policies, something both the NDP and Greens commit to do.

    In contrast, the Conservatives promise to repeal current climate policies and halt development of others. But with a growing population and plans for LNG expansion, B.C.’s emissions would increase rather than decline under that strategy.

    As B.C. voters prepare to cast their ballots this week, they’ve got a lot to contemplate on climate.

    Kathryn Harrison receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. She is chair of the mitigation advisory panel of the Canadian Climate Institute, and a member of British Columbia’s Climate Solutions Council, but her comments do not represent either body nor the University of British Columbia.

    – ref. B.C. election: Party proposals on climate action point in opposite directions – https://theconversation.com/b-c-election-party-proposals-on-climate-action-point-in-opposite-directions-241334

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: This year’s Nobel prize exposes economics’ problem with colonialism

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jostein Hauge, Assistant Professor in Development Studies, University of Cambridge

    Bumble Dee / Shutterstock

    Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James Robinson have been awarded the 2024 Nobel memorial prize in economics for their influential work on how institutions shape economic development. Some would say the decision to award these scholars the Nobel was long overdue.

    The paper that formed the basis of their work is one of the most cited in economics. Acemoglu and Robinson’s subsequent book, Why Nations Fail, has also been hugely influential.

    These works have inspired a rich debate on the relationship between societal institutions and economic development – so in that sense, congratulations are in order. But they have also been the subject of substantial criticism. In the aftermath of the award, it is fitting to highlight the blind spots in their analysis.

    The most important piece of criticism concerns the connection between the quality of a country’s societal institutions and its level of economic development. Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson’s work divides institutions into two categories: “inclusive” and “extractive”.

    Inclusive institutions – such as those that enforce property rights, protect democracy and limit corruption – foster economic development, according to the laureates. In contrast, extractive institutions, which give rise to a high concentration of power and limited political freedom, seek to concentrate resources in the hands of a small elite and thus stifle economic development.

    The laureates claim the introduction of inclusive institutions has had a positive long-term effect on economic prosperity. Indeed, these institutions are today found primarily in high-income countries in the west.

    A huge problem with this analysis, however, is the claim that certain institutions are a precondition for economic development.

    Mushtaq Khan, a professor of economics at Soas, University of London, has analysed Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson’s work extensively. He argues that it mainly shows today’s high-income countries score higher on western-based institution indexes, and not that economic development was achieved because states first established inclusive institutions.

    In fact, history is rife with examples of countries that grew rapidly without having these inclusive institutions in place as a precondition for growth. East Asian states such as Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan are good examples. Most recently, so too is China.

    Yuen Yuen Ang’s award-winning books on China’s development process have laid out in detail how China was riddled with corruption during its growth process. In the wake of this year’s Nobel award, Ang went as far as saying that the laureates’ theory not only fails to explain growth in China, but also growth in the west. She points out that institutions in the US were smeared with corruption during the country’s development process.

    Ignoring the brutality of colonialism

    Nations are not wrong to pursue some of the inclusive institutions outlined in Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson’s work. But another worrying part of their analysis is that it legitimises the supremacy of western institutions – and, at worst, processes of imperialism and colonialism.

    Their work has, indeed, been criticised for not paying attention to the brutality of colonialism. We need to dig a bit deeper into their methods to understand this criticism.

    The laureates establish their claim by looking at long-term development in settler colonies versus non-settler colonies. In settler colonies, such as the US, Canada and Australia, Europeans established inclusive institutions. But in non-settler colonies, which include large parts of Africa and Latin America, Europeans established extractive institutions.

    Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson point out that, over time, settler colonies perform better. European institutions are thus better for development, they argue.

    But, considering that the process of colonisation is a central method of their paper, it’s a mystery that the laureates do not discuss the costs of colonialism more broadly.

    Even in settler colonies, where inclusive institutions were eventually developed, years of violence – in many cases verging on the genocide of native populations – predated the development of such institutions. Should this not be factored into the development process?

    According to this year’s laureates, Europeans settled in the poorest and most sparsely populated places, and introduced institutions that contributed to long-term prosperity.
    Johan Jarnestad / Nobel Prize Outreach

    After receiving the award, Acemoglu said that normative questions of colonialism didn’t concern them: “Rather than asking whether colonialism is good or bad, we note that different colonial strategies have led to different institutional patterns that have persisted over time.”

    This statement might come a shock to some people – why is Acemoglu not concerned about whether colonialism is good or bad? But for those familiar with the inner workings of the economics discipline, this statement doesn’t come as a surprise.

    It has, sadly, become a badge of honour in mainstream economics to analyse the world without a normative lens or value judgments. This is a broader issue with the discipline and, in part, explains why economics has become increasingly insular and distant from other social sciences.

    The Nobel prize in economics, which actually wasn’t among the five original Nobel prizes, also illustrates this problem. The list of past winners is narrow in geographical and institutional scope, mainly consisting of economists based at economics faculties in a small number of elite universities in the US.

    Furthermore, a recent study found the institutional and geographic concentration of awards in economics is much higher than in other academic fields. Almost all the winners of major awards have had to journey through one of the top US universities (limited to less than ten) in their career.

    This year’s Nobel prize in economics is no exception. Perhaps this is why it feels like every year, the prize goes to someone who asks “how does a change in variable X affect variable Y”, rather than asking difficult questions about colonialism, imperialism or capitalism – and daring to question the supremacy of western institutions.

    Jostein Hauge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. This year’s Nobel prize exposes economics’ problem with colonialism – https://theconversation.com/this-years-nobel-prize-exposes-economics-problem-with-colonialism-241400

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –