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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Gen Z knowledge about the Holocaust matters for ongoing reconciliation with a troubled history

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Regan Lipes, Extended Sessional Instructor, English and Comparative Literature, MacEwan University

    Since last Oct. 7, the world has seen mass death catalyzed by terrorist attacks in Israel, Israel’s mission to recover hostages still being detained and retaliation in Gaza — and now a long-dreaded war erupting through the Middle East.

    As a scholar of Jewish and Holocaust literature, in the past year following Oct. 7, I have been aware that how students engage with the history of the Holocaust has been impacted.

    Eighty thousand Israelis remain displaced from their homes in the north. Over 40,000 Palestinians have now been killed in Gaza, and and following a United Nations expert accusing Israel of acts of genocide, UN delegates have amplified calls for an immediate ceasefire.

    Others assert Israel’s actions are a defensive response. While all Israeli citizens have been affected by violence in Israel, Israel is a Jewish state, and the kind of violence and hate directed at Israel is being felt by Jews globally. For many Jews the Oct. 7 attacks themselves resonated hauntingly of Kristallnacht, with the Jewish people again put in a position of needing to defend their right to exist.



    Read more:
    Holocaust comparisons are overused — but in the case of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel they may reflect more than just the emotional response of a traumatized people

    The definition of genocide acknowledged in the international Genocide Convention drew on the term coined by Polish-born lawyer Raphael Lemkin who fled persecution of the meticulously orchestrated genocide against European Jewry during the Second World War.

    Globally, we are seeing a time of re-aligning geopolitics, including both the Global South and West becoming increasingly aware of pro-Palestinian perspectives. Many Gen Zs have been quick to rally against Zionism.

    At the same time, Holocaust denialism, antisemitic hate acts and terrorist threats have accompanied a rise in anti-Israel sentiment — with frightening effects on Jews globally, sometimes fanned by propagandists seeking to exploit and augment conflict and polarization.

    Even before events of the past year, as the 1940s recede in time, fewer and fewer Gen Zs have identified themselves as feeling knowledgeable about the Holocaust. The way knowledge is transmitted must adapt with the times.

    Memory through time

    In 2019 I was the faculty fellow for a partnership between the Auschwitz Jewish Center and the Museum of Jewish Heritage (MJH). As a scholar I have had the benefit of meeting with Holocaust survivors to learn about their experiences.

    During my fellowship, the ongoing question rattling in my brain was how to safeguard the lived testimonies of survivors as their numbers dwindle.

    When I teach literature of the Holocaust and second-generation efforts to preserve memory, I have noticed students’ limited knowledge of the Holocaust when I do an informal poll of what they know already. Many students admit an awareness limited exclusively to Hollywood films.

    Six-part documentary

    Director Joe Berlinger’s recent documentary Hitler and the Nazis: Evil on Trial is conscious of deficits in Gen Z education and seeks to remedy this.

    ‘Hitler and the Nazis: Evil on Trial,’ documentary by Joe Berlinger.

    Berlinger’s six-part Netflix documentary takes a unique approach to examining and exploring Hitler’s rise to power and the lasting global impact.

    He frames this analysis by using the writings and broadcasts of journalist and foreign corespondent William L. Shirer, who authored the iconic The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich (1960), in concert with narration from Shirer’s granddaughter, Deirdre van Dyk.

    Within the context of her grandfather’s historically significant coverage of the European political landscape throughout the 1930s and 40s, van Dyk is able to offer insights regarding how Shirer spoke about this period going beyond his public writings.

    Preserving history

    On an online discussion panel organized by the MJH in July 2024, Berlinger acknowledged the plethora of documentaries examining the Second World War, but explained that this work is a targeted effort to preserve history while connecting and resonating with Gen Z viewers.

    Van Dyk’s participation plays a key role in bridging the present with the lived experience of Shirer, a witness of Nazi corruption and totalitarianism.

    Similarly second- and third-generation Holocaust survivors are instrumental in ensuring that their parents and grandparents’ suffering and trauma can be used to caution current learners who will be the politicians, jurists and educators of the future about dangers of antisemitism.

    Online discussion with director Joe Berlinger with Museum of Jewish Heritage.

    Alberta initiative

    An initiative in Alberta, the Second Voices Project is working to help Gen Z students understand the Holocaust in a way that feels authentic and less like distant history.

    The initiative, with the support of the Government of Alberta, uses video testimony given by survivors, and pairs this with discussion, commentary and observations provided by their children and grandchildren.

    Robert Jackson, chief counsel of the International Military Tribunal (IMT) at Nuremberg, noted in his opening statement at the Nuremberg Trial in 1945:

    “The wrongs which we seek to condemn and punish have been so calculated, so malignant and so devastating that civilization cannot tolerate their being ignored because it cannot survive their being repeated.”

    Jackson’s remarks now seem prophetic as society reexamines how best to impart this vital knowledge.

    Increased consciousness

    When the Second Voices Project travels to secondary and post-secondary institutions it is with the hope that seeds for increased tolerance and social consciousness be planted.

    ‘The Pages In Between’ by Erin Einhorn.
    (Simon and Schuster)

    During the winter 2024 semester, in a Jewish literature course I taught, I saw the Second Voices Project in action. The course sees students examine the search for resolution in untenable situations, with reporter Erin Einhorn’s The Pages In Between.

    They grapple with depictions of trauma and extreme loss in Cynthia Ozick’s short story The Shawl and examine how American-born Jews negotiated feelings of misplaced guilt following learning about the extent of the Holocaust.

    Accompanied by a Holocaust education specialist from the Jewish Federation of Edmonton, my students met second-generation survivor and retired physician Dr. Francie Cyngiser.

    Cyngiser’s parents survived the Nazi concentration camps, and she brought her father, Sidney Cyngiser’s, recorded Shoah Foundation testimony, narrated by her son and nephew, to my class.

    Sidney Cyngiser was dedicated to combating Holocaust denial by sharing his story. Instead of simply watching a video of Cyngiser testifying, the documentary was contextualized for students by inter-generational survivors not much younger than their parents.

    Addressing trauma fatigue

    Although Berlinger’s viewers cannot speak directly with van Dyk the way my students did with Dr. Cyngiser, his documentary is an important innovation to engage Gen Z learners.

    To appeal to this targeted viewership, the Shirer family consented to use AI voice approximations of William Shirer’s writings to help narrate Berlinger’s documentary. Although original recordings from his news broadcasts also feature prominently, many of his diaries, smuggled out of Nazi Germany at great risk, needed vocalization for the film.

    By adapting, Holocaust educators can also combat trauma fatigue which can impair capacity for awareness, recognition and response. In Germany, where Holocaust education is mandatory, feelings of frustration over inherited guilt for the Holocaust can breed apathy and resentment.

    Both pro-Zionist and Zionist-critical Jews have highlighted that such sentiments are dangerous in the current global climate.

    Apathy fails to serve any humanitarian function and dangerously anaesthetises all sides to the pain of others.



    Read more:
    Middle East student dialogue: As an expert in deep conflict, what I’ve learned about making conversation possible

    The German term Vergangenheitsbewältigung describes the process of ongoing reconciliation with a troubled history. The past is a reality that humanity as whole must contend with, but a lack of understanding is fertile ground for denial, revisionism and antisemitism.

    I cannot help but wonder if greater awareness of Holocaust history, and political and cultural histories of how to safeguard human rights, would promote more tolerance and compassion universally.

    Regan Lipes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Gen Z knowledge about the Holocaust matters for ongoing reconciliation with a troubled history – https://theconversation.com/gen-z-knowledge-about-the-holocaust-matters-for-ongoing-reconciliation-with-a-troubled-history-235296

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A year of devastation: with hope and trust shattered, what can bring an end to the violence in Israel-Palestine?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eyal Mayroz, Senior Lecturer in Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Sydney

    On October 7 2023, Hamas launched a savage attack on southern Israel, massacring around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting another 240 people. The following day, I wrote in an analysis for The Conversation:

    For many Palestinians, this weekend’s events offered Israelis a small taste of what their own lives have been like under decades of occupation. However, the early celebrations will likely soon turn into anger and frustration as the numbers of Palestinian civilian casualties will continue to rise. Violence begets violence.

    As the Israeli retaliation had only just begun, no one could have imagined how devastating it would end up being for the people of Gaza. There are now well over 40,000 Palestinians dead, mostly civilians, and countless wounded. Nearly 2 million people have been displaced within the coastal strip.

    The ferociousness of the Israel Defence Forces’ aerial bombings – and its subsequent ground invasion of Gaza – triggered intense global pressure to stop the violence. This was coupled with a worldwide campaign to end Israel’s decades-long illegal occupation of Palestinian territories.

    This popular movement was able to place its agenda at the forefront of the international media’s attention and sustain it there for many months.

    A year later, however, concern for the people of Gaza – and for the dozens of Israeli hostages still locked up in Hamas’ tunnels – has begun to wane. The world’s focus is shifting to the fast-expanding misery along the Israel–Lebanon border, and to a possible full-scale war between Israel and Iran.

    As the fighting in Gaza grinds on with no end in sight, the prospects for resolving the most intractable conflict in the world between Israeli-Jews and Palestinians seem ever dimmer. But is it so?

    One conflict, two peoples and many onlookers

    In a century-long struggle between two societies over the same small parcel of land, the cycle of violence has barely stopped.

    The challenges today remain frustratingly robust – entrenched territorial claims, grave errors by leaders on both sides and many missed opportunities. Years of polarising narratives have also bred mistrust, competing accounts of victimisation, debilitating fears and animosity — to the point of mutual dehumanisation.

    On the Israeli-Jewish side, there’s a strong sense of an existential security threat, compounded by the inter-generational trauma of the Holocaust and ongoing fears of terrorist attacks. This sharply contrasts with Palestinians’ experiences of decades of dispossession, humiliation, continuous rights violations and feelings of abandonment by the world.

    To further undermine a solution to the conflict, religious and radical nationalist influences – on both sides – have turned an already complex, asymmetric conflict into an unyielding impasse.

    Over the years, international failures to help resolve the conflict drove many states to recalibrate their foreign policies away from constructive engagement. Arguably, this was to avoid harmful impacts to their reputations over future failures, or accusations of bias, from one or both sides.

    Fear, victimhood and tit-for-tat revenge

    The 1948 Nakba, or “catastrophe”, followed by decades of oppressive Israeli occupation, have inflicted immeasurable suffering on Palestinians. In turn, this occupation has also inflicted significant and often unappreciated damage to Israel’s social fabric, cohesion, economy, international standing, security and moral stature.

    Hamas’ brutal massacres and Israel’s vicious retaliations have only exacerbated these effects, for both sides. And they are now threatening to extinguish what tiny hope may have existed before October 2023 for a path towards a liveable future for both people.

    Should the tit-for-tat cycle of violence continue, the blowback will hurt not only Israel’s efforts to attain safety and security for its citizens, but the prospects for a political future for the Palestinians, as well.

    Arguably, existential fear may be the most underappreciated and damaging element behind the conflict’s intractability.

    Outside observers tend to view security concerns rationally, and as a national concern, based on the threat to the state or to the people as a whole.

    But in the Israel-Palestine conflict, people react to such fears emotionally, focusing first on their own safety. And the fear is ever-present – a rocket exploding in my house, or my child being shot at by a sniper on the way to school.

    These worries and experiences have been etched in the minds of generations of Palestinians and Israelis. We need to appreciate this fact to make sense of how both sides have dehumanised one another and excluded the “other” from their spheres of moral concern, particularly following the October 7 attack and in the weeks and months after.

    The late Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, assassinated in 1995 by a Jewish extremist for engaging in peace efforts, once said you don’t make peace with friends, but with enemies.

    However, absent a minimum sense of safety and trust – if not in the other side, than at least in the mediators and future outside guarantors – the security arrangements required to sustain a peace agreement would be difficult, if not impossible, for both sides to agree on.



    Read more:
    10 books to help you understand Israel and Palestine, recommended by experts

    Entrenched views and dangerous simplifications

    As the war in Gaza has not yet ended, a detailed assessment of the successes and failures of the campaign for a Palestinian state is still ahead of us.

    During the fighting, misinformation and disinformation have been rife. With both sides waging a propaganda war, the manipulation of facts ratcheted up divisions and increased polarisation between “pro-Israel” and “pro-Palestine” groups across the globe.

    Selectively embracing information that could validate one’s own position and omitting or rejecting everything else have become the norm.

    Once we choose a side, we can go to great lengths to defend its actions. Our conditioned responses challenge or cast doubt on any claim or information put forth by the other side. And the more emotionally invested we become, the harder it is for us to empathise with the suffering of the “other”.

    Simplistic misconceptions, for example, that an aggressor cannot also be a victim or vice versa, have added fuel to the fire and to the conflict’s polarisation. This has had negative consequences for empathy, reconciliation, trust and peace-building.

    We could debate without end who has suffered more. But how useful would that be, at this stage, for the prospects of a future peace?

    Despite the strong emphasis in the global debate on the “pro-Palestinian” versus “pro-Israeli” dichotomy, an important reality is that meeting the basic needs of one side could never be achieved without addressing those of the other.

    These needs for peace, safety, security and dignity are mutual. As such, they should be promoted in the public debate over the incompatible needs ramped up by minorities in the two camps.

    Rather than taking sides, efforts should focus on reconciling both parties’ objectives: a ceasefire in Gaza, an end to the unjust occupation, self-determination for Palestinians, and safety and security for Israelis.

    As the future welfare of one side is inextricably linked to the security needs of the other, zero-sum solutions won’t achieve anything. Rather, they will only fan the suspicions, animosities and victimhood grievances on both sides, and lead to more violence.



    Read more:
    Why is the Gaza war tearing us apart?

    It’s the world’s turn

    Most Palestinians and Israelis have lost what little desire or capacity they had prior to October 7 for trusting or empathising with the misery of the other. The anger, fear and suffering today are too overwhelming.

    In the short term, meaningful solutions must come from the outside.

    In addition to a critically needed change of leadership on both sides, it is time for more sincere collaborative efforts by key states in the international community.

    It is time to replace years of empty condemnations with more meaningful and sustained commitments.

    It is time to help both societies, through carrots but also strong sticks, to free themselves from the chokeholds of illusory, all-or-nothing radical ideologies that have brought so much suffering and devastation to all.

    It is time for a better future for both Palestinian and Israeli children, even at the price of painful concessions. And concessions will have to be made on both sides for the promise of a lasting peace.

    To pressure governments to do more, protests should continue, but their voices should call for peace for all and against harming innocents on all sides, regardless of who they are.

    Peace, or at this stage an end to violence, has to come first – even if this would slow down (not prevent!) accountability and justice for all victims.

    Hate comes easily in the face of injustices. It is hard to empathise with the misfortunes of “others” who may or may not have brought their miseries upon themselves. But selective denunciation of crimes perpetrated by the other side, based on one’s support or rejection of a cause, is not only morally flawed, but counterproductive.

    Those who have been severely aggrieved by this human tragedy may struggle to apply the same yardstick to others, certainly in the near future. But the rest of us can, and should, do better.

    Eyal Mayroz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A year of devastation: with hope and trust shattered, what can bring an end to the violence in Israel-Palestine? – https://theconversation.com/a-year-of-devastation-with-hope-and-trust-shattered-what-can-bring-an-end-to-the-violence-in-israel-palestine-239204

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Getting antivirals for COVID too often depends on where you live and how wealthy you are

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Breadon, Program Director, Health and Aged Care, Grattan Institute

    CGN089/Shutterstock

    Medical experts recommend antivirals for people aged 70 and older who get COVID, and for other groups at risk of severe illness and hospitalisation from COVID.

    But many older Australians have missed out on antivirals after getting sick with COVID. It is yet another way the health system is failing the most vulnerable.

    Who missed out?

    We analysed COVID antiviral uptake between March 2022 and September 2023. We found some groups were more likely to miss out on antivirals including Indigenous people, people from disadvantaged areas, and people from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds.

    Some of the differences will be due to different rates of infection. But across this 18-month period, many older Australians were infected at least once, and rates of infection were higher in some disadvantaged communities.

    How stark are the differences?

    Compared to the national average, Indigenous Australians were nearly 25% less likely to get antivirals, older people living in disadvantaged areas were 20% less likely to get them, and people with a culturally or linguistically diverse background were 13% less likely to get a script.

    People in remote areas were 37% less likely to get antivirals than people living in major cities. People in outer regional areas were 25% less likely.

    Dispensing rates by group.
    Grattan Institute

    Even within the same city, the differences are stark. In Sydney, people older than 70 in the affluent eastern suburbs (including Vaucluse, Point Piper and Bondi) were nearly twice as likely to have had an antiviral as those in Fairfield, in Sydney’s south-west.

    Older people in leafy inner-eastern Melbourne (including Canterbury, Hawthorn and Kew) were 1.8 times more likely to have had an antiviral as those in Brimbank (which includes Sunshine) in the city’s west.

    Why are people missing out?

    COVID antivirals should be taken when symptoms first appear. While awareness of COVID antivirals is generally strong, people often don’t realise they would benefit from the medication. They wait until symptoms get worse and it is too late.

    Frequent GP visits make a big difference. Our analysis found people 70 and older who see a GP more frequently were much more likely to be dispensed a COVID antiviral.

    Regular visits give an opportunity for preventive care and patient education. For example, GPs can provide high-risk patients with “COVID treatment plans” as a reminder to get tested and seek treatment as soon as they are unwell.

    Difficulty seeing a GP could help explain low antiviral use in rural areas. Compared to people in major cities, people in small rural towns have about 35% fewer GPs, see their GP about half as often, and are 30% more likely to report waiting too long for an appointment.

    Just like for vaccination, a GP’s focus on antivirals probably matters, as does providing care that is accessible to people from different cultural backgrounds.

    Care should go those who need it

    Since the period we looked at, evidence has emerged that raises doubts about how effective antivirals are, particularly for people at lower risk of severe illness. That means getting vaccinated is more important than getting antivirals.

    But all Australians who are eligible for antivirals should have the same chance of getting them.

    These drugs have cost more than A$1.7 billion, with the vast majority of that money coming from the federal government. While dispensing rates have fallen, more than 30,000 packs of COVID antivirals were dispensed in August, costing about $35 million.

    Such a huge investment shouldn’t be leaving so many people behind. Getting treatment shouldn’t depend on your income, cultural background or where you live. Instead, care should go to those who need it the most.

    Getting antivirals shouldn’t depend on who your GP is.
    National Cancer Institute/Unsplash

    People born overseas have been 40% more likely to die from COVID than those born here. Indigenous Australians have been 60% more likely to die from COVID than non-Indigenous people. And the most disadvantaged people have been 2.8 times more likely to die from COVID than those in the wealthiest areas.

    All those at-risk groups have been more likely to miss out on antivirals.

    It’s not just a problem with antivirals. The same groups are also disproportionately missing out on COVID vaccination, compounding their risk of severe illness. The pattern is repeated for other important preventive health care, such as cancer screening.

    A 3-step plan to meet patients’ needs

    The federal government should do three things to close these gaps in preventive care.

    First, the government should make Primary Health Networks (PHNs) responsible for reducing them. PHNs, the regional bodies responsible for improving primary care, should share data with GPs and step in to boost uptake in communities that are missing out.

    Second, the government should extend its MyMedicare reforms. MyMedicare gives general practices flexible funding to care for patients who live in residential aged care or who visit hospital frequently. That approach should be expanded to all patients, with more funding for poorer and sicker patients. That will give GP clinics time to advise patients about preventive health, including COVID vaccines and antivirals, before they get sick.

    Third, team-based pharmacist prescribing should be introduced. Then pharmacists could quickly dispense antivirals for patients if they have a prior agreement with the patient’s GP. It’s an approach that would also work for medications for chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular disease.

    COVID antivirals, unlike vaccines, have been keeping up with new variants without the need for updates. If a new and more harmful variant emerges, or when a new pandemic hits, governments should have these systems in place to make sure everyone who needs treatment can get it fast.

    In the meantime, fairer access to care will help close the big and persistent gaps in health between different groups of Australians.

    Grattan Institute has been supported in its work by government, corporates, and philanthropic gifts.

    A full list of supporting organisations is published at http://www.grattan.edu.au.

    – ref. Getting antivirals for COVID too often depends on where you live and how wealthy you are – https://theconversation.com/getting-antivirals-for-covid-too-often-depends-on-where-you-live-and-how-wealthy-you-are-239497

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia has an extraordinary 13 million spare bedrooms. Here’s how to use at least some of them to ease the housing crisis

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lyndall Bryant, Lecturer in Property Economics, Queensland University of Technology

    While there’s little relief in sight for Australia’s housing crisis, with new projects years away from completion, there appear to be as many as 13 million unused spare bedrooms across the country.

    In a new briefing paper for the QUT Centre for Justice I suggest that, at least in the interim, these spare rooms ought to be part of the solution.

    Here’s where you find them. The census says about 3.2 million Australian homes have one spare bedroom, another 3 million have two spare rooms and 1.2 million have three spare bedrooms or more.

    They are more common in the homes of older than younger Australians.

    A survey by the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute found that more than three-quarters of homeowners aged 74 and older had spare rooms compared to less than two-thirds of homeowners aged 55 and younger.

    These older owners are often “asset rich and income poor”. Most rely at least in part on the age pension and could do with the income that would come from renting out a room, so long as it didn’t cut into their pension or present them with a capital gains tax bill when their home is eventually sold.

    My work suggests these fears are largely unfounded, even though it’s hard to convince many older Australians of that.

    Rent needn’t mean income tax

    The Tax Office has long provided for “domestic arrangements” and other arrangements where board and lodging provided at non-commercial rates is not considered assessable income for taxation purposes.

    The downside is that expenses are not tax deductible.

    These arrangements are said to occur when all residents including the owner bear an appropriate proportion of the costs actually incurred on food, electricity, heating and other costs of running the home.

    “Homestay” for international students is an example. Homestay hosts can receive about $350 per week for providing a fully furnished room, main meals and utilities in an arrangement the Tax Office has ruled need not be taxable.

    Rent needn’t cut off the pension

    All pensioners are currently eligible for the work bonus scheme that allows additional earnings of up to $504 a fortnight for singles and $660 per fortnight for couples without loss of any pension.

    It ought to be easy enough to apply the scheme to rent as well as income from work, as it arguably already does given that renting out spare bedrooms is a form of self-employment and hence “work”.

    As important would be making pensioners aware of any changes or clarifications to the rules in a way that normalised “taking in boarders”.

    Rent needn’t mean capital gains tax

    Anecdotal evidence suggests homeowners fear that renting out a spare bedroom will make their home liable for the capital gains tax that applies to rented properties when they are eventually sold.

    While this may be true in some situations, it is somewhat of an urban myth, and the amounts of tax involved can be small.

    According to the Tax Office

    • capital gains tax only applies to properties bought after September 20 1985

    • any gain is taxed only at the marginal rate in the year the property is sold

    • only half of each gain is taxed

    • gains can be offset against capital losses

    • only the net gain is taxed after costs.

    And capital gains tax only applies for the portion of the home that is rented out, and for the portion of time it is rented out.

    In my paper I explain how an apparent capital gain of $100,000 is taxed less where a room is only let for one year in five and is one of three bedrooms in the home, cutting the taxable capital gain to just $3,333.

    If the very concept of the calculation remains a barrier, it might be possible to offer homeowners who let out rooms a short-term “capital gains tax holiday” for the next three to five years while new housing stock is being built.

    Rules for safety and boarder matching essential

    Another barrier is concern about safety, both personal and financial for older homeowners. Surprisingly, there are few rules governing boarding, with tenancy legislation saying little, forcing homeowners and tenants to rely on common law.

    Australians letting out rooms need legislated protections from elder abuse and spurious claims of cohabitation and other rights.

    Tenant matching and management systems could make the process simpler.

    Imagine being able to walk into your local real estate agency and list your spare room to rent. If the agency offered boarder management services you could outline your preferences and ask it to put forward a list of candidates to interview.

    Good matches would provide benefits for both older Australians and younger companions. Boarder management could become a new business model for real estate agents as well as non-profits.

    Please note: This article does not provide tax or financial advice. It is general in nature and should not be relied on for taxation or financial purposes.

    Lyndall Bryant does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Australia has an extraordinary 13 million spare bedrooms. Here’s how to use at least some of them to ease the housing crisis – https://theconversation.com/australia-has-an-extraordinary-13-million-spare-bedrooms-heres-how-to-use-at-least-some-of-them-to-ease-the-housing-crisis-239490

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia is hosting the world’s first ‘nature positive’ summit. What is it, and why does it matter?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Lowe, Director, Environment Institute, University of Adelaide

    MPIX, Shutterstock

    This week, Australia hosts the inaugural Global Nature Positive Summit in Sydney. It comes at a crucial time: biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse is one of the biggest risks the world faces in the next decade.

    The event, which begins tomorrow, brings together leaders from government, business, academia, environment groups and Indigenous Peoples. Together, they will seek ways to drive investment in nature and improve its protection and repair.

    More than half the world’s economy directly depends on nature. Biodiversity loss threatens global financial stability, putting at least US$44 trillion (A$64 trillion) of economic value at risk.

    Industries such as agriculture, fishing, forestry, tourism, water and resources rely heavily on nature. But ultimately, all of humanity depends on the natural world – for clean air, water, food, and a liveable climate.

    In Australia significant investment is needed to reverse the decline in our natural environment. It will require action from governments, landholders and the private sector.

    That’s why this week’s summit is so important. Nature conservation and restoration is expensive and often difficult. The task is beyond the capacity of governments alone.

    What’s going on at the summit?

    According to the World Economic Forum, “nature positive” is an economic worldview that goes beyond limiting environmental damage and aims to actually improve ecosystems.

    Under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, to which almost 200 countries have signed up, at least 30% of land and waters must be protected or restored by 2030. The summit is exploring ways to realise this global commitment, which is also known as the 30×30 target.

    The federal and New South Wales governments are co-hosting the event.

    Federal Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek will address the summit on day one, outlining her government’s Nature Positive Plan. It commits to the 30×30 target as well as “zero new extinctions”. Achieving these commitments involves environmental law reform, setting up a Nature Repair Market and establishing a national Environment Protection Agency.

    Delegates are expected to demonstrate their commitment and progress towards the 30×30 goal. They will then turn to the main point of the summit: building consensus on the economic settings needed to increase private investment in nature.

    Finance models and corporate partnerships are on the agenda, along with how to make this work, including how to measure, monitor and report on progress and manage risk.

    Sessions will focus on specific sectors of the environment such as agriculture and farming, cities, oceans and forests. On Thursday, delegates will visit nature sites around Sydney.

    Creating a market to incentivise biodiversity investment | 7.30.

    Investing in a market for nature repair

    Substantial co-investment from the private sector, including landholders, will be required to repair and protect nature at the scale required.

    Market-based approaches can drive private investment in natural resources. But most existing environmental markets focus on water and carbon. A more holistic approach, including nature repair, is needed.

    Australia’s Nature Positive Plan includes building a nature repair market. This world-first measure is a legislated, national, voluntary biodiversity market in which individuals and organisations undertake nature repair projects to generate a tradeable certificate. The certificate can be sold to generate income. Demand for certificates is expected to grow over time.

    But the role the government will take remains unclear. For example, will the government both regulate market prices and decide what, in a scientific sense, amounts to repairing nature?

    On day two, the summit explores how nature markets can unlock new sources of finance. We can expect this discussion to include ways carbon and biodiversity markets can work together: so-called “carbon-plus” outcomes.

    For example, when landholders conserve vegetation, the plants can both draw carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and provide habitat for animals, preventing biodiversity loss. Markets could be designed so landholders are rewarded for achieving these dual results.

    Significant economic returns

    Under optimistic estimates, the global nature-positive transition will unlock business opportunities worth an estimated US$10 trillion (almost A$15 trillion) a year and create 395 million jobs by 2030.

    The potential benefits for Australia are also substantial. They include benefits to nature such as restoring habitat for wildlife, while storing carbon. It can also provide returns for agriculture, by improving land value, yield and quality.

    A strong nature-positive stance from Australia will also help safeguard our access to global markets. For example, the European Union has already established trade barriers to imports that damage forests. This could have serious consequences for the Australian beef industry.

    So the potential benefits have to be weighed against the risks of not doing anything. The summit is a chance to get a wide range of people on board, working towards a shared vision of a more positive future.

    It’s time for a nature-positive mindset

    The Albanese Labor government came to power promising to overhaul Australia’s national environment laws, following a scathing independent review.

    When the summit was conceived, the government may have envisaged having cause for celebration by now. But some proposed reforms stalled in the Senate.

    Nonetheless, the Nature Repair Market, a significant government win, is taking shape.

    This week’s summit offers Australia an opportunity to show the world we have embraced the nature-positive mindset. There really is no time to waste.

    Australia, the sixth most biodiverse country in the world, has listed 2,224 species and ecological communities as threatened with extinction. These losses are predicted to escalate if we continue business as usual and allow continued decline of ecosystems.

    Despite having pledged to end deforestation by 2030, Australia is the only deforestation hotspot among developed nations. Land clearing continues apace in northern Australia, often without being assessed under national environmental laws.

    We desperately need to reverse the decline in nature, once and for all.

    Andrew Lowe receives funding from a range of national and international funding sources including the Australian Research Council, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, The International Tropical Timber Organization.

    This article was crafted following conversations with the Advisory Committee of the Nature Positive Economy CRC bid, including Daisy Mallett – Lawyer / International Abitrator; Ian Overton – Principal, Natural Economy Consulting; Professor Hugh Possingham – University of Queensland; Nicki Hutley – Climate Council; Cheryl Hayman – Beston Global Food Company; Robert Waterworth – FLINTPro; Kate Andrews – NRM Regions Australia; Tim King – Melior Investment Management; Peter Boyd – Rozetta Institute; David Shelmerdine – ClimateWorks; Wendy Mackay – Pollination Group; Tim Jarvis – Fauna & Flora International; Jody Gunn – Australian Land Conservation Alliance; Joshua Bishop – University of Sydney; Phil Duncan – University of Canberra; Dr Paul Dalby – Rozetta Project Director.

    – ref. Australia is hosting the world’s first ‘nature positive’ summit. What is it, and why does it matter? – https://theconversation.com/australia-is-hosting-the-worlds-first-nature-positive-summit-what-is-it-and-why-does-it-matter-236236

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why heart patients have trouble sticking to a healthy diet, and 3 things that help them eat better

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Gabriela Ghisi, Affiliate Scientist, KITE Research Institute, Adjunct Professor, Department of Physical Therapy, University of Toronto

    Following nutritional recommendations is vital for managing cardiovascular disease, but it’s not always easy, especially for those with limited resources. (Shutterstock)

    Cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of death worldwide, and managing it effectively requires more than just medical intervention: what you eat plays a crucial role in your heart’s health.

    For cardiac patients, following nutritional recommendations isn’t just a suggestion; it’s a lifeline. A heart-healthy diet can help control risk factors like high blood pressure, cholesterol levels and obesity, all of which are key contributors to heart disease.

    For cardiac patients, following nutritional recommendations isn’t just a suggestion; it’s a lifeline.
    (Shutterstock)

    A healthy diet will help you prevent new heart problems, which is called secondary prevention, and it will help improve functional capacity and quality of life, giving you more independence for daily activities. But for many patients, adhering to these dietary guidelines can be a significant challenge even while they are in a cardiac rehabilitation program. This is especially challenging for those who live in low-resourced settings (areas or communities with few resources and little support for health and wellness).



    Read more:
    Cardiac rehab is a proven but underused therapy in women, but tailored resources aim to change that

    Cardiac rehab is an interdisciplinary approach focused on interventions for secondary prevention and improving cardiovascular prognosis, to reduce the global impact of cardiovascular disease. We recently conducted a study aimed at understanding the barriers and facilitators that low-resourced patients face when trying to follow nutritional recommendations in cardiac rehab.

    The findings underscore how critical, yet complex, it is for patients to maintain a heart-healthy diet. The results of this study are not just informative — they are a call to action for health-care providers, policymakers and communities alike.

    The cost of healthy eating

    Many heart-healthy foods — like fresh fruits, vegetables, and lean proteins — can be expensive, especially for individuals or families living on a tight budget.
    (Shutterstock)

    One of the primary barriers we identified is the cost of healthy foods. Many heart-healthy foods — like fresh fruits, vegetables, and lean proteins — can be expensive, especially for individuals or families living on a tight budget. In low-income areas, access to these foods is often limited, with more affordable but less healthy options readily available.



    Read more:
    Why are grocery bills so high? A new study looks at the science behind food price reporting

    This economic reality makes it difficult for patients to consistently choose foods that support their heart health. In the last few years the cost of healthy food in Canada, a high-income setting, has been rising due to high food inflation. Despite that, the current Canada’s Food Guide is less expensive for adults to follow compared to the previous ones.

    Another significant barrier is the complexity of nutritional information. Patients are often bombarded with a wealth of dietary guidelines, which can be confusing and overwhelming. Without proper guidance, including education and individualization, it’s easy for someone to feel lost or discouraged, particularly if they lack basic nutritional knowledge. This can lead to frustration and, ultimately, poor adherence to dietary recommendations.

    Cultural factors also play a role. In many cases, traditional diets may not align with the standard dietary guidelines recommended for heart health. Patients may find it challenging to adapt their eating habits without feeling like they are losing an important part of their cultural identity. This disconnect can make it even harder for patients to stick to a heart-healthy diet.

    Empowering patients to eat better

    Despite these challenges, our study also highlighted several facilitators that can make a significant difference. One of the most effective is community support. Programs that provide affordable access to healthy foods, like food banks or community gardens, can help alleviate some of the financial pressures.

    Additionally, accessible information sources that break down complex nutritional advice into simple, actionable steps can empower patients to make healthier choices.

    Programs that provide affordable access to healthy foods, like food banks or community gardens, can help alleviate some of the financial pressures of healthy eating.
    (Shutterstock)

    Importantly, incorporating culturally relevant foods into dietary plans can make the transition to a heart-healthy diet more manageable and acceptable. When patients see that their traditional foods can be part of their diet, they are more likely to embrace and maintain the recommended changes.

    Our findings emphasize the importance of a tailored approach to nutritional guidance in cardiac rehab, especially for low-resourced patients. It’s not enough to simply tell patients what to eat — health-care providers need to listen and understand the unique challenges patients face and provide practical, sustainable solutions. This means working closely with patients, offering personalized advice that considers their financial situation, providing access to resources and considering cultural preferences.

    Making heart-healthy diets accessible

    The implications of our research extend beyond individual patient care. They highlight the need for systemic changes that make healthy eating more accessible for everyone. This could include policies that subsidize healthy foods, increase the availability of fresh produce in underserved areas or create educational programs that are accessible to all.

    Following nutritional recommendations is vital for managing cardiovascular disease, but it’s not always easy, especially for those with limited resources. Identifying and addressing the specific barriers these patients face can help them make lasting, positive changes to their diet and, ultimately, their heart health.

    This research underscores the need for a more equitable approach to health care, one that ensures all patients have the support they need to live healthier, longer lives.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why heart patients have trouble sticking to a healthy diet, and 3 things that help them eat better – https://theconversation.com/why-heart-patients-have-trouble-sticking-to-a-healthy-diet-and-3-things-that-help-them-eat-better-239172

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The chemistry behind beer brewing is still shrouded in mystery, but tiny microfluidic chips could change that

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Katherine Elvira, Associate Professor and Canada Research Chair, Department of Chemistry, University of Victoria

    As the brewing industry expands and new beer styles, such as hazy pale ales, emerge, brewers are constantly looking for new ways to analyze the composition of their beers to preserve the carefully crafted sensory quality of their products.

    However, analyzing how the molecules in beer affect its flavour is challenging because of the sheer amount of different types of molecules present in the beverage. To address this issue, our research team at the University of Victoria has developed a user-friendly lab-on-a-chip device to investigate how we can add more hop flavours to beer by making oil-in-beer emulsions.

    Lab-on-a-chip, or microfluidic, technologies are tiny devices usually made from a transparent, rubbery material that can be used to transport and analyze liquids in pipes the size of a human hair.

    While these technologies are not commonly used in the food sciences, they are perfectly suited for the creation of emulsions, which are widely used in the food industry. Emulsions are formed by creating tiny drops of one liquid in another immiscible liquid.



    Read more:
    Microfluidics: The tiny, beautiful tech hidden all around you

    For example, salad dressing is usually made by mixing oil and vinegar, a water-like liquid. Oil and water do not mix, so to create an oil-in-vinegar emulsion, a stabilizer like mustard or egg is added. This allows tiny oil drops to be suspended in the vinegar, giving a pleasant texture to the salad dressing.

    Similarly, in beer, hop oils (essential oils from hops) are stabilized in the water-like beer. Understanding the type of molecule responsible for this stabilization could help brewers create more highly hop-flavoured beers.

    Katherine Elvira explains how her lab makes and uses microfluidic devices. Video by Julian Sketchley.

    Creating a new method

    Brewing beer requires a precise understanding of four main ingredients: malted barley, hops, water and yeast. Each of these ingredients contains a complex mixture of components, and their interactions, while used by humans for thousands of years, are still not well-understood chemically.

    The wealth of ingredients in beer makes it hard to tease out the behaviour and interactions of specific molecules, and how these relate to the flavour and composition of the beverage. Each ingredient interacts with others in complex ways, influencing the brewing process and the final product.



    Read more:
    Brewing Mesopotamian beer brings a sip of this vibrant ancient drinking culture back to life

    This is where our lab-on-a-chip device comes in. Our research, conducted in lead author Katherine Elvira’s laboratory at the University of Victoria’s Department of Chemistry, was done in collaboration with local microbrewery Phillips Brewing and Malting Co.

    The new method for making oil-in-beer emulsions was developed by undergraduate students Danielle Hanke, Jaling Kersen, Alexandra Schauman, Caitland Stagg and Nicole York, and graduate students Alex McDonald, Jaime Korner and Kaitlyn Ramsay.

    Together, they created a simple microfluidic platform designed to be usable by non-experts in the academic and industrial sectors, making it a valuable tool for advancing the science of brewing.

    Unlocking new possibilities

    Our research explored the role of gluten, a protein present in beer, in stablizing hop oil emulsions. By gaining a better understanding of this, brewers can fine-tune the composition of their ingredients to influence the final visual and sensory quality of beer.

    We tested two different hop oils, alpha-terpene and linalool, that are commonly present in hoppy beers. The two hop oils differed in droplet stability with protein and enzyme treatment, suggesting this effect may also be dependent on the type of hop oils present.

    This research could help brewers decide which types of grains and hops to include in their hazy beers — a style characterized by their cloudy appearance and strong hop flavour — to create the most shelf-stable and flavoursome beers.

    The future of brewing

    Our beer-on-a-chip platform can be used to generate experimental conditions that reflect full-scale brewing operations on a smaller, more manageable scale. By doing this, we can gain better insight into the brewing process, which still contains many chemical mysteries.

    Traditionally, these technologies have not been widely used in the brewing industry, but our research shows how microfluidic platforms can be more widely used in the food sciences to study emulsions.

    Whether it’s developing new beer styles, improving the shelf life of existing ones or enhancing flavour profiles, this technology could become an invaluable tool for brewers worldwide. Future work on microfluidic brewing may yet reveal more interesting and delicious insights into brewing.

    Alex McDonald, a graduate of the Master of Science in Chemistry program from the University of Victoria, co-authored this story.

    Katherine Elvira received funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Engage program to fund this research.

    – ref. The chemistry behind beer brewing is still shrouded in mystery, but tiny microfluidic chips could change that – https://theconversation.com/the-chemistry-behind-beer-brewing-is-still-shrouded-in-mystery-but-tiny-microfluidic-chips-could-change-that-238182

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canada has always had a ‘tap on, tap off’ immigration policy aimed primarily at filling jobs

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Thomas Klassen, Professor, School of Public Policy and Administration, York University, Canada

    The federal government will soon announce its immigration plan and immigration levels for the next three years. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have already signalled, however, that the number of immigrants will decline from the levels of the past several years.

    The government has been under fire for its immigration policy and must move carefully with a federal election likely next year. The increase in housing costs is cited by critics as consequence of too many immigrants arriving in Canada over a short period of time.



    Read more:
    What’s behind the dramatic shift in Canadian public opinion about immigration levels?

    Sharp increases and decreases in the number of immigrants are nothing new in Canada’s history. Historically, immigration policy has been “tap on, tap off,” with immigration levels increased when the unemployment rate falls and reduced when unemployment rises. Immigration has always been thinly veiled labour market policy; that is, a way to fill jobs.

    Influx of immigrants

    In 1913, an estimated 400,900 immigrants arrived in Canada, accounting for five per cent of the country’s population. At that time, the government sought farmers to settle the Prairies and allow the western expansion of Canada.

    It took more than a century — until 2021 under Trudeau — before a larger number of immigrants was accepted in a single year; 406,000 were admitted.

    But those who came in 2021 accounted for only one per cent of the nation’s much larger population, rather than five per cent in 1913.

    When the Liberals came to power in late 2015, the national unemployment rate was seven per cent and dropping. By 2019, it was under six per cent, a level not experienced for nearly half a century.

    The economy was humming with low unemployment and inflation, allowing the immigration tap to be turned on. From 2017-19, 300,000 immigrants were accepted each year, but from 2021 to 2023, that increased to a record high of about 430,000 annually.

    In the past decade, employers have benefited from high levels of immigration and voiced few complaints. Businesses know that labour costs are kept low when immigrants flood into the job market.

    International students

    What has made the nation’s immigration policy distinct under Trudeau is that the tap has also been turned on for international students. These students are not immigrants, but rather are allowed to enter Canada and, initially, remain only during the time they are studying.

    In the past several decades Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States have become extraordinarily attractive for college and university students.

    Middle-class families in China, India, Brazil and other countries are willing to spend what is required to send their children to study abroad.

    Universities and colleges covet international students as a source of income since they pay twice or more what local students pay in tuition.

    The additional income earned by post-secondary institutions from international students has allowed provincial governments to limit tuition fee increases for Canadian students. For example, the Ontario government reduced tuition fees by 10 per cent in 2019 and has kept tuition frozen for local students ever since.

    Permanent citizenship pathways

    When the Liberals came to power, there were about 300,000 international students in Canada. Last year, that number reached one million. Immigration rules were tweaked in the past decade to open paths to permanent citizenship for some international students and their families.

    Some believe the combination of high immigration rates and a large number of international students has created an unsustainable situation as housing costs in many parts of Canada increase significantly over the past several years.



    Read more:
    International students are not to blame for Canada’s housing crisis

    Suddenly, earlier this year, the federal government placed limits on the number of student visas it would issue annually to reduce the flow of students coming from abroad. Provinces and educational institutions were furious, especially by the lack of advance notice and the loss of expected revenues.

    However, rapid swings in immigration policy are a feature of Canada’s history. After welcoming 400,000 immigrants in 1913, only 10 per cent of that number were granted entry five years later.

    Sharp U-turns

    The causes that necessitated the recent sharp U-turn in the number of international student visas — and limiting the pathways to students and their dependants to become immigrants — are instructive.

    The federal government ignored the fact that colleges and universities were not equipped for the massive ramp-up of foreign student enrolment. Some post-secondary institutions, particularly those operated for profit, took advantage of incoming students by providing sub-standard education.

    A closer monitoring of the impact of high numbers of international students would have allowed the federal government to more gradually adjust the visa tap. More consultation between all levels of government would have permitted problems to quickly reach the appropriate decision-makers.

    Moving forward, the federal government would do well to better monitor the impacts of immigration levels. More consultation with other levels of government, employers and stakeholders will result in more gradual adjustments to the number of newcomers who are — and always have been — critical to Canada’s economic and cultural successes.

    Thomas Klassen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Canada has always had a ‘tap on, tap off’ immigration policy aimed primarily at filling jobs – https://theconversation.com/canada-has-always-had-a-tap-on-tap-off-immigration-policy-aimed-primarily-at-filling-jobs-239896

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Could NZ foreign policy be Trumped? Why the government will be hoping Kamala Harris wins the US election

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert G. Patman, Professor of International Relations, University of Otago

    Getty Images

    One of the political ironies of the race for the White House is that the foreign policy interests of New Zealand’s centre-right government are probably best served by Democratic candidate Kamala Harris winning.

    Since the end of World War II, all New Zealand governments have supported multilateralism and an international rules-based order enshrined in the institutions of the United Nations.

    The relationship with the United States has reflected that, and tends to outlast the periodic fluctuations associated with changes in government and policy in Wellington or Washington.

    New Zealand’s current National-led coalition inherited close relations with the US, too. American visitor numbers were second only to Australians last year. The US is our third largest export market. And the two countries remain strategically linked within the Five Eyes intelligence sharing arrangement.

    Nevertheless, one of the key foreign policy goals of the coalition is to strengthen alignment with traditional allies such as the US. Given the very different worldviews of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the November 5 election will have a large bearing on how successful any push for closer relations with the US can be.

    Closer relations in the balance

    On the one hand, Republican candidate Trump is opposed to multilateral institutions, unless they explicitly serve US national interests. And he wants to reverse the impact of globalisation by constraining immigration, free trade and global governance.

    Nationalist slogans like “America First” promise a return to a so-called golden era of patriotism and sovereignty: a top-down world where the greatest power of all is unencumbered and free to assert its dominance.

    On the other hand, Harris would seem to support a more traditional US foreign policy agenda. This recognises the importance of international institutions and alliances in a world where “isolation is not insulation”.

    Whoever occupies the White House next, then, is likely to have a significant impact on New Zealand foreign policy.

    Isolation and dominance: Trump plays the immigration card at Republican National Convention in July 18.
    Getty Images

    Power plays and the Pacific

    First, Trump’s belief in an international system run by great powers would seem to be a recipe for depriving smaller states like New Zealand of a voice on international issues that affect them.

    Second, New Zealand’s regional focus on ties with Pacific Island nations – underpinned by close people-to-people links and a significant proportion of the country’s overseas development aid programme – is more likely to be complemented by a Harris foreign policy.

    Outgoing president Joe Biden reversed decades of US neglect of much of the Pacific, which had played to the advantage of other external powers – notably China.

    The Biden team launched the annual US-Pacific Islands Summit in 2022. And Kamala Harris played an active role in delivering US$800 million in development and climate assistance to Pacific Island nations in 2022-23.

    Whether Trump will maintain this enhanced diplomatic and economic engagement in the Pacific (and elsewhere) is questionable. Similarly, after Biden rejoined the Paris Climate Accord, Trump will probably quit it for a second time.

    Kamala Harris hosts Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House in September.
    Getty Images

    AUKUS and Ukraine

    Third, the New Zealand government faces the delicate task of navigating relations with an increasingly assertive China – the country’s biggest trade partner – while pursuing its goal of moving closer to the US.

    Since March 2023, successive New Zealand governments have been considering joining an arrangement to share advanced defence technologies under pillar two of the AUKUS security partnership that aims to deter a rising China in the Indo-Pacific region.

    It remains to be seen how China would react if New Zealand did join. But Trump’s insistence on US primacy in any multilateral agreement could make it more difficult for the government to win domestic support for pillar two membership.

    Even outside the AUKUS debate, Trump is more likely to insist allies spend more on defence than they did traditionally.

    Fourth, New Zealand has a big stake in the failure of Russia’s attempted annexation of Ukraine. Wellington’s interests are clearly more in line with Harris’ pledge to maintain support for Ukraine to restore its territorial integrity.

    Trump’s promise to end the war within 24 hours, on the other hand, could probably only be achieved by giving Vladimir Putin what he wants.

    The Middle East and the UN

    Finally, there do not seem to be substantive policy differences between Trump and Harris on the catastrophic situation in Gaza, and increasingly Lebanon.

    There remains a slim possibility a Harris administration might recognise unconditional support for the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu is not sustainable for a superpower whose foreign policy is supposed to be driven by universal values and respect for international law.

    But this would be near impossible for Trump. Indeed, he would probably provide Netanyahu with even greater support.

    Overall, the foreign policy interests of the National-led coalition seem to align more with a Harris presidency than one led by Trump.

    But even if Harris wins, the alignment of interests will not be perfect. US exceptionalism – an informal ideology that claims the nation is a political exemplar for the rest of the world – and Washington’s veto power in the UN security Council are likely to remain constraining factors on the New Zealand-US relationship.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Could NZ foreign policy be Trumped? Why the government will be hoping Kamala Harris wins the US election – https://theconversation.com/could-nz-foreign-policy-be-trumped-why-the-government-will-be-hoping-kamala-harris-wins-the-us-election-240538

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Kamala Harris maintains narrow lead in key states in US presidential race

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49.3–46.2, a slight gain for Trump since last Monday, when Harris led Trump by 49.3–46.0.

    Joe Biden’s final position before his withdrawal as Democratic candidate on July 21 was a national poll deficit against Trump of 45.2–41.2.

    In economic data, the US added 254,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate slid 0.1% to 4.1%. The unemployment rate had peaked at 4.3% in July.

    The US president isn’t elected by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its federal House seats (population based) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes as winner-takes-all, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

    Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased to Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model.

    In the key states, Harris remains ahead in Silver’s poll aggregates by one to two points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (ten) and Nevada (six). If Harris wins these four states, she probably wins the Electoral College by at least 276–262. Trump leads by 0.5 points in North Carolina (16 electoral votes), one point in Georgia (16) and 1.2 points in Arizona (11).



    Read more:
    Kamala Harris the slight favourite to win US election as she narrowly leads in key states

    In Silver’s model, Harris has a 56% chance to win the Electoral College, unchanged since last Monday’s article. The FiveThirtyEight model was more favourable to Harris in September, but now gives her a 55% chance to win. It’s close to a 50–50 probability for either candidate, but Harris remains a slight favourite.

    There are still more than four weeks to go until the election, so there’s time for the polls to change and for one candidate to have a decisive Electoral College advantage on election day. Or the polls could be understating either Harris or Trump, in which case the candidate that benefits from the poll error could have a decisive win.

    Thumping lead for LNP in Queensland

    The Queensland state election is on October 26. A Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted September 26–29 from a sample of 1,067, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) a 56–44 lead, a five-point gain for the LNP since the previous Freshwater poll in July 2023.

    Primary votes were 43% LNP (up three), 30% Labor (down four), 12% Greens (up one), 8% One Nation (up one) and 7% for all Others (down one).

    Labor Premier Steven Miles had a net approval of -5, while LNP leader David Crisafulli had a +15 net approval. Crisafulli led Miles by 46–38 as preferred premier.

    The poll asked about the federal leaders’ Queensland ratings, with Anthony Albanese at net -17, while Peter Dutton was at net zero. Queensland is a Coalition-friendly state at federal elections relative to the national results.

    Federal Newspoll quarterly data

    On September 30, The Australian released aggregate data for the four Newspolls taken from July to September, which had a combined sample size of 5,035. The Poll Bludger said the Coalition led in New South Wales by 51–49, unchanged on the June quarter.

    In Victoria, Labor led by 52–48, a two-point gain for the Coalition. In Queensland, the Coalition led by an unchanged 54–46. In Western Australia, Labor led by an unchanged 52–48. In South Australia, Labor led by 54–46, a one-point gain for Labor.

    The Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack data shows the results by educational attainment. In the September quarter, Labor led by 53–47 among university-educated people, a one-point gain for Labor. With TAFE-educated people, there was a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for the Coalition. Those with no tertiary education favoured the Coalition by 51–49, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

    Coalition gains lead in Morgan poll

    A national Morgan poll, conducted September 23–29 from a sample of 1,668, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the September 16–22 Morgan poll.

    Primary votes were 38% Coalition (up 0.5), 30% Labor (down two), 13.5% Greens (up one), 4.5% One Nation (down 0.5), 9.5% independents (steady) and 4.5% others (up one).

    The headline figure uses respondent preferences. But if preferences were assigned using the 2022 election flows, Labor led by 51.5–48.5, a 0.5-point gain for the Coalition. There was an unusually large gap last week between the two measures.

    Resolve poll on Middle East conflict

    Voting intentions have not yet been released from a national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers that was conducted October 1–5 from a sample of 1,606. Regarding the political response in Australia to the Middle East conflict, 22% thought Dutton and the Liberals had responded best, 18% Albanese and Labor and 6% Adam Bandt and the Greens, while 55% said none had responded best or were unsure.

    On Australia’s actions, 23% thought we should voice in-principle support for Israel, 12% Gaza and 65% both or none. On accepting refugees, 52% don’t want any refugees accepted, 24% would accept refugees from either Israel or Gaza, 13% Gaza only and 11% Israel only.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Kamala Harris maintains narrow lead in key states in US presidential race – https://theconversation.com/kamala-harris-maintains-narrow-lead-in-key-states-in-us-presidential-race-240117

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why a portrait of a former NRL great could spark greater concussion awareness in Australia

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Townsend, Research Fellow, UQ School of Human Movement and Nutrition Sciences, The University of Queensland

    A new portrait of NRL legend Wally Lewis conveys a striking message about the consequences of brain trauma in sport.

    The portrait, created by visual artist Jamie van Leeuwen in cooperation with Lewis, is currently entered in the 2024 Brisbane Portrait Prize.

    It uses artificial intelligence (AI) and traditional photography to depict Lewis contemplating his own brain, prompting viewers to consider the consequences of athletes subjecting their bodies (and brains) to a lifetime of physical trauma in contact sports.

    It further suggests that art has an important role to play in science communication.

    Heavy lies the crown

    Lewis is one of Queensland’s most beloved figures and one of Australia’s greatest rugby league players.

    His intelligence was matched by a rugged playing style. He thrilled crowds by appearing to relish hard tackles and seeking confrontation.

    Lewis’ State of Origin performances for Queensland, the Australian representative team, and multiple clubs earned him the nickname “The King” and the “Emperor of Lang Park,” where he is celebrated with a life-size statue.

    In short, it is difficult to overstate the affection many Queenslanders have for Lewis and the magnitude of his reputation in the Australian rugby league community.

    The King speaks

    Although rugby league gave a lot to Lewis, it also took a heavy toll.

    After retiring he moved into broadcasting, becoming the long-term sports anchor for Channel Nine in Queensland.

    In late 2006, he had two successive epileptic episodes on live television.

    Following the second episode, Lewis announced publicly that he had been diagnosed with epilepsy during his playing career but hid the condition for decades. He further revealed his epilepsy was caused by repeated concussions.

    Wally Lewis has spoken out about his epilepsy struggles.

    More recently, Lewis has become one of the most prominent figures in the broader conversation around brain trauma in sport, particularly following his 2023 diagnosis of traumatic encephalopathy syndrome (TES), the symptomatic precursor of the brain disease chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE).

    This diagnosis is likely linked to his lifetime accumulation of brain trauma in rugby league.

    Who is listening?

    Many Australian sports and athletes are being impacted by concussion, with a cacophony of experts and advocates attempting to make themselves heard.

    Scientists, researchers, doctors, athletes, parents, families, and politicians are all straining to communicate the potentially serious consequences of brain trauma to the sporting public.

    This portrait of Lewis cuts through the noise and conveys a complex and sometimes controversial narrative: the neurological consequences of contact sport can outweigh its benefits.

    This is a particularly fraught conversation in light of a recent study that argued the opposite.

    The King’s Battle

    The portrait conveys the duality of contact sport in an instant.

    As the artist states, the meaning of the piece is “about legacy […] both sides of legacy.”

    Lewis’ successes are evidenced by the 1987 Maroons jersey he wears and the crown atop his head.

    The costs are equally visible.

    His wearied expression, the blood and grime on his collar and the disembodied brain resting in his palms prompt the viewer to imagine Lewis’s thoughts.

    Is he re-imagining past victories? Planning an uncertain future? Harbouring fears for his fellow athletes?

    After viewing the image for the first time, Lewis said:

    It pretty much tells the story straight away […] there is great hope in the future that I’m going to be able to deal with some of the difficulties.

    The image is emotionally freighted in a way that researchers and medical practitioners usually try to avoid, particularly in discussions about sports concussion where advocates for player safety have been accused of being overly emotional or scare-mongering.

    The King’s Battle reminds us brain trauma is an emotional issue as much as a scientific one.

    As ANU science media researcher Matt Ventresca says, some of the most effective advocates for player welfare are former and current athletes who “in the absence of scientific certainty, express fear about the health of their brains.”

    Art and the future of science

    Arts and science are often viewed as contradictory, but creative expressions like The King’s Battle should play a role in science communication.

    Think Susan Sontag’s brilliant essay Illness as Metaphor or the haunting lyrical description of cancer in Blood by Australian band The Middle East.

    “Blood”, by Australian indie band The Middle East, became the band’s signature song.

    The concussion crisis is a potent space for artistic representation – the 2015 film Concussion starring Will Smith is a landmark in public perceptions of brain trauma in sport.

    The upcoming ABC television program Plum also tells the story of a brain damaged former sports star.

    A 2024 portrait of former Australian NFL player Colin Scotts shows the consequences of a life in contact sport.

    Artistic representations such as The King’s Battle are important because they bring home the consequences of brain trauma in ways that traditional science communication struggles to achieve.

    It reminds us that understanding the emotion of health is just as important as understanding its scientific and medical aspects.

    For CTE researchers, van Leeuwen’s portrait also carries abstract echoes of another hope for the future.

    His use of AI technology to disembody Lewis’ brain in the artwork is reminiscent of current methods of CTE diagnosis: post-mortem removal and dissection of the brain.

    The difference in The King’s Battle is that Lewis can look on the damage done to his brain while still very much alive.

    In much the same way, we hope in the near future that technological advances will allow us to see CTE in the brains of living athletes and help them to live better lives with the disease.

    Alan Pearce is currently unfunded. Alan is a non-executive director for the Concussion Legacy Foundation (unpaid position) and Adjunct research manager for the Australian Sports Brain Bank (unpaid position). He has previously received funding from Erasmus+ strategic partnerships program (2019-1-IE01-KA202-051555), Sports Health Check Charity (Australia), Australian Football League, Impact Technologies Inc., and Samsung Corporation, and is remunerated for expert advice to medico-legal practices.

    Stephen Townsend does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why a portrait of a former NRL great could spark greater concussion awareness in Australia – https://theconversation.com/why-a-portrait-of-a-former-nrl-great-could-spark-greater-concussion-awareness-in-australia-238882

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NASA is launching a major mission to look for habitable spots on Jupiter’s moon Europa

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Lloyd, Research Fellow, ARC CoE Plants for Space, School of Molecular Sciences, The University of Western Australia

    Illustration of the spacecraft above Europa’s icy surface. NASA/JPL-Caltech

    On October 10, NASA is launching a hotly anticipated new mission to Jupiter’s fourth-largest moon, Europa.

    Called Europa Clipper, the spacecraft will conduct a detailed study of the moon, looking for potential places where Europa might host alien life.

    It’s the largest planetary exploration spacecraft NASA has ever made: as wide as a basketball court when its solar sails are unfolded. It has a mass of about 6,000 kilograms – the weight of a large African elephant.

    But why are we sending a hulking spacecraft all the way to Europa?

    Looking for life away from Earth

    The search for life in places other than Earth usually focuses on our neighbour Mars, a planet that’s technically in the “habitable zone” of our Solar System. But Mars is not an attractive place to live, due to its lack of atmosphere and high levels of radiation. However, it’s close to Earth, making it relatively easy to send missions to explore it.

    But there are other places in the Solar System that could support life – some of the moons of Jupiter and Saturn. Why? They have liquid water.

    Here on Earth, water is the solvent of life: water dissolves salts and sugars, and facilitates the chemical reactions needed for life on Earth to proceed. It’s possible life forms exist elsewhere that rely on liquid methane or carbon dioxide or something else, but life as we know it uses water.

    The reason there’s liquid water so far out in the Solar System is because Jupiter and Saturn, the gas giants, wield immense gravitational power over their moons.

    Saturn’s moons, Titan and Enceladus, are stretched and compressed by gravity as they go around their host planet. This movement results in vast underground oceans with a surface of solid ice, with plumes of water vapour exploding 9,600 kilometres from the surface.

    It is strongly suspected that Europa is the same. While we know a lot about Europa from more than four centuries of observation, we have not confirmed it has an under-ice liquid ocean like Titan and Enceladus.

    But all clues point to yes. Europa has a smooth surface despite being hit by many meteors, suggesting the surface is young, recently replaced. Ice volcanoes raining down water over the surface would make sense.

    It also has a magnetic field, suggesting that like Earth, Europa has a liquid layer inside (on Earth, this liquid is molten rock).

    This artist’s concept (not to scale) shows what Europa’s insides might look like: an outer shell of ice, perhaps with plumes venting out; a deep layer of liquid water; and a rocky interior, potentially with hydrothermal vents on the seafloor.
    NASA/JPL-Caltech

    What will Europa Clipper do?

    At the surface, Europa is bombarded by high levels of space radiation, concentrated by Jupiter. But deeper down, the thick ice sheet could be protecting life in the liquid subsurface ocean.

    This means it would be difficult for us to find concrete evidence for life without drilling down deep. But where to look? Through flybys of the icy moon, Europa Clipper will be looking at areas where life could be dwelling under the icy shell.

    To achieve this, Europa Clipper has nine scientific instruments. These include a wide-angle camera to study geologic activity and a thermal imaging system to measure surface texture and detect warmer regions on the surface.

    There’s also a spectrometer for looking at the chemical composition of the gases and surface of Europa, and for any explosive plumes of water from the surface. The mission also has tools for mapping the moon’s surface.

    Other instruments will measure the depth and salt levels of the moon’s ocean and the thickness of its ice shell, and also how Europa flexes within the strong gravitational pull of Jupiter.

    Excitingly, a mass spectrometer will analyse the gases of the moon’s faint atmosphere and potential plumes of water. By examining the material ejected from the plumes, we can understand what is hidden within the under-ice oceans of Europa.

    A dust analyser will also look at matter that has been ejected from Europa’s surface by tiny meteorites or released from the plumes.

    Unfortunately, we will have to wait a while for any discoveries. Europa Clipper will take more than five years to reach Jupiter. And the mission is only equipped to look for the potential of life, not life itself. If we see evidence that might point towards life, we will need future missions to return and explore Europa in depth.

    So we must be patient. But this is an exciting opportunity for humanity to get one step closer to find life beyond our own home planet.

    James Lloyd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. NASA is launching a major mission to look for habitable spots on Jupiter’s moon Europa – https://theconversation.com/nasa-is-launching-a-major-mission-to-look-for-habitable-spots-on-jupiters-moon-europa-239928

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Is owning a dog good for your health?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tania Signal, Professor of Psychology, School of Health, Medical and Applied Sciences, CQUniversity Australia

    Pogodina Natalia/Shutterstock

    Australia loves dogs. We have one of the highest rates of pet ownership in the world, and one in two households has at least one dog.

    But are they good for our health?

    Mental health is the second-most common reason cited for getting a dog, after companionship. And many of us say we “feel healthier” for having a dog – and let them sleep in our bedroom.

    Here’s what it means for our physical and mental health to share our homes (and doonas) with our canine companions.

    Are there physical health benefits to having a dog?

    Having a dog is linked to lower risk of death over the long term. In 2019, a systematic review gathered evidence published over 70 years, involving nearly four million individual medical cases. It found people who owned a dog had a 24% lower risk of dying from any cause compared to those who did not own a dog.

    Having a dog may help lower your blood pressure through more physical activity.
    Barnabas Davoti/Pexels

    Dog ownership was linked to increased physical activity. This lowered blood pressure and helped reduce the risk of stroke and heart disease.

    The review found for those with previous heart-related medical issues (such as heart attack), living with a dog reduced their subsequent risk of dying by 35%, compared to people with the same history but no dog.

    Another recent UK study found adult dog owners were almost four times as likely to meet daily physical activity targets as non-owners. Children in households with a dog were also more active and engaged in more unstructured play, compared to children whose family didn’t have a dog.

    Exposure to dirt and microbes carried in from outdoors may also strengthen immune systems and lead to less use of antibiotics in young children who grow up with dogs.

    Children in households with a dog were often more active.
    Maryshot/Shutterstock

    Health risks

    However, dogs can also pose risks to our physical health. One of the most common health issues for pet owners is allergies.

    Dogs’ saliva, urine and dander (the skin cells they shed) can trigger allergic reactions resulting in a range of symptoms, from itchy eyes and runny nose to breathing difficulties.

    A recent meta-analysis pooled data from nearly two million children. Findings suggested early exposure to dogs may increase the risk of developing asthma (although not quite as much as having a cat does). The child’s age, how much contact they have with the dog and their individual risk all play a part.

    Slips, trips and falls are another risk – more people fall over due to dogs than cats.

    Having a dog can also expose you to bites and scratches which may become infected and pose a risk for those with compromised immune systems. And they can introduce zoonotic diseases into your home, including ring worm and Campylobacter, a disease that causes diarrhoea.

    For those sharing the bed there is an elevated the risk of allergies and picking up ringworm. It may result in lost sleep, as dogs move around at night.

    On the other hand some owners report feeling more secure while co-sleeping with their dogs, with the emotional benefit outweighing the possibility of sleep disturbance or waking up with flea bites.

    Proper veterinary care and hygiene practices are essential to minimise these risks.

    Many of us don’t just share a home with a dog – we let them sleep in our beds.
    Claudia Mañas/Unsplash

    What about mental health?

    Many people know the benefits of having a dog are not only physical.

    As companions, dogs can provide significant emotional support helping to alleviate symptoms of anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress. Their presence may offer comfort and a sense of purpose to individuals facing mental health challenges.

    Loneliness is a significant and growing public health issue in Australia.

    In the dog park and your neighbourhood, dogs can make it easier to strike up conversations with strangers and make new friends. These social interactions can help build a sense of community belonging and reduce feelings of social isolation.

    For older adults, dog walking can be a valuable loneliness intervention that encourages social interaction with neighbours, while also combating declining physical activity.

    However, if you’re experiencing chronic loneliness, it may be hard to engage with other people during walks. An Australian study found simply getting a dog was linked to decreased loneliness. People reported an improved mood – possibly due to the benefits of strengthening bonds with their dog.

    Walking a dog can make it easier to talk to people in your neighbourhood.
    KPegg/Shutterstock

    What are the drawbacks?

    While dogs can bring immense joy and numerous health benefits, there are also downsides and challenges. The responsibility of caring for a dog, especially one with behavioural issues or health problems, can be overwhelming and create financial stress.

    Dogs have shorter lifespans than humans, and the loss of a beloved companion can lead to depression or exacerbate existing mental health conditions.

    Lifestyle compatibility and housing conditions also play a significant role in whether having a dog is a good fit.

    The so-called pet effect suggests that pets, often dogs, improve human physical and mental health in all situations and for all people. The reality is more nuanced. For some, having a pet may be more stressful than beneficial.

    Importantly, the animals that share our homes are not just “tools” for human health. Owners and dogs can mutually benefit when the welfare and wellbeing of both are maintained.

    Tania Signal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Is owning a dog good for your health? – https://theconversation.com/is-owning-a-dog-good-for-your-health-238888

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: People don’t like a ‘white saviour’, but does it affect how they donate to charity?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Hoffmann, Professor of Economics, Tasmanian Behavioural Lab, University of Tasmania

    Shutterstock

    Efforts to redress global inequality are facing an unexpected adversary: the white saviour. It’s the idea that people of colour, whether in the Global South or North, need “saving” by a white Western person or aid worker.

    An eclectic mix of white activists have been publicly accused of being white saviours for trying to help different causes in the Global South. They include celebrities who adopted orphaned children, organised benefit concerts such as Live Aid, or called out rights abuses.

    Others include professional and volunteer charity workers and journalists reporting on poverty in Africa. Even activism at home can earn the white saviour label, like efforts to refine the proposal for the Indigenous Voice to Parliament in Australia.

    We conducted a series of studies with 1,991 representative Australians to find out what people thought made a white saviour, how charity appeal photographs create this impression, and how it affected donations.

    White saviourism and charities

    The concern is that white people’s overseas charity, even when well-meaning, can inadvertently hurt rather than help the cause. It could perpetuate harmful stereotypes of white superiority, disempower local people, or misdirect resources to make helpers feel good rather than alleviating genuine need.

    The fear of being labelled a white saviour could make people think twice about giving time or money to worthy causes. It might stop aid organisations using proven appeals to raise donations they need.

    Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), for instance, released a video apologising for using photos depicting white people in aid settings and which aren’t representative of the majority local staff they employ.

    Therein lies the dilemma: white donors can relate to photos of white helpers, but this is easily interpreted as white savourism.

    What makes someone a white saviour?

    Very little research exists into exactly what white saviourism means. Broadly, it seems to describe people in the Global North who support international causes for selfish reasons, to satisfy their own sentimentality and need for a positive image. We wanted to go deeper.

    In the first of our studies, we showed our participants 26 photographs depicting different Global South aid settings with a white helper.

    The helpers that participants thought of as highly “white saviour” typically had these characteristics:

    • they appeared to be privileged and superior

    • they gave help sentimentally and tokenistically

    • they conformed to the colonial stereotype of the helpless local and powerful foreigner.

    Further analysis showed these characteristics boil down to two essential features: ineffectiveness of the help and entitlement of the helpers.

    These two perceptions of the white saviour explain the problem for charity. Behavioural economics research has identified two main reasons for donating, and these perceptions undermine both.

    Why do people donate at all?

    So to see how much white saviourism affects charities, we need to know why people donate in the first place.

    One reason for giving is pure altruism, the desire to help others with no direct benefit to oneself. The effective altruism movement encourages people to make every donated dollar count – getting the maximum bang for the buck in terms of measurable outcomes for those in need.

    The difficulty for effective altruists is in assessing the impact of different charities vying for their donations. There are now websites that list charities by lives saved per dollar donated.



    Read more:
    How white saviourism harms international development

    Alternatively, donors might look at a charity’s appeal images for clues of how effectively it will use their dollars.

    Depicting white people as saviours can create the impression of tokenistic aid that only serves the helper’s sentimental needs. Evidence shows people resent impure motives in others (including organisations) and might try to penalise them.

    Behavioural economics research also shows, as you might expect, that some people are more concerned about themselves than others when giving. This is known as “warm glow” giving.

    Warm glow givers have several self-serving motivations. They include giving to gain self-respect or social status.

    People also have a desire to meet their social obligations. For richer folks this could include charitable giving. And giving can reduce guilt they might feel about their privilege.

    Just like the effective altruist, the warm glow giver could be put off by any sign of white saviourism. They don’t want to be seen to be endorsing it.

    Do people still donate?

    All this suggests that seeing a white saviour depiction in a charitable appeal will make people donate less.

    We examined this in another study, in which participants were shown each of the previous photos. This time they were asked, for every photo, if they were willing to donate to a charity that uses it.

    And as we thought, the photos previously rated as high in white saviourism had low intentions to donate.

    Participants were shown photos of white aid workers in the Global South.
    Shutterstock

    But intentions do not always equal actions, as psychologist have demonstrated for many years.

    To overcome this, we measured real donations in another study. Again participants saw the same photos, but this time they had the chance to donate part of their participation fee to a real charity when seeing them.

    What we found surprised us: the white saviour effect disappeared. How high a photo was on the white saviour scale had no impact on how much participants donated when seeing it.

    Does the end justify the motivation?

    Our results summarise the dilemma. Donors might object to white saviourism by charities, but in the end feel that it’s the help that counts, not the motivation behind it.

    We found some evidence for this when we asked participants about their general views of white saviourism.

    Almost 70% agreed that white saviour motives are common in Western help and that this was problematic for recipients. But interestingly, only 42% thought helpers with these motives deserved criticism.

    Together, this might suggest that people feel white saviour help is better than no help. There are voices in the charity community who echo this sentiment: imposing conditions on charitable giving will serve to reduce it.

    In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Elise Westhoff, president of the Philanthropy Roundtable in the United States, said “by imposing those ‘musts’ and ‘shoulds’, you really limit human generosity”.

    But this doesn’t mean there are no legitimate concerns. There are, but it’s not hard for charities to address them.

    Our results show that white saviour perceptions do not affect actual donations, so read another way, suggests charities can safely replace highly white saviour images without losing donations for their causes.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. People don’t like a ‘white saviour’, but does it affect how they donate to charity? – https://theconversation.com/people-dont-like-a-white-saviour-but-does-it-affect-how-they-donate-to-charity-239307

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What are the greatest upsets in NRL grand final history?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wayne Peake, Adjunct research fellow, School of Humanities and Communication Arts, Western Sydney University

    The Penrith Panthers and Melbourne Storm will contest the National Rugby League (NRL) grand final on Sunday.

    Betting markets have them pretty much equal favourites. However, history shows grand finals don’t always go to plan.

    But what are the biggest upsets in NRL grand final history?

    Using a combination of formlines during the season and in finals, betting odds, media coverage and past performances, here are some of the most outlandish upsets in rugby league’s history.

    1944: Balmain 12, Newtown 8

    In 1944, Newtown was the minor premier while Balmain was second.

    Newtown entered the finals series as hot favourite and looked even hotter after destroying third-placed St George 55–7 in the first semi-final.

    However, in the final, Balmain won 19–6. That wasn’t the end of the story, though.

    Under the rules of the day, Newtown, as minor premier, could seek a rematch in a grand final “challenge”.

    Newton fielded a much stronger side and most expected it to reverse the final result. However, Balmain won again, 12–8.

    1952: Western Suburbs 22, South Sydney 12

    In 1952, Wests were minor premiers, while Souths finished third.

    Souths won the first semi-final 18–10 but Wests, as minor premiers, went straight to the grand final challenge three weeks later anyway. Meanwhile, Souths beat North Sydney to advance.

    According to the Sydney Truth, Wests were “regarded in some quarters as rank outsiders”.

    Then, rumours spread that Wests had “thrown” the first game and the referee assigned to the decider, George Bishop, had placed £400 on them, causing their price to shorten.

    Bishop sent off a player from each team ten minutes into the second half. Souths scored a try with 20 minutes to go to take the lead before Wests scored four tries in the last ten minutes to win.

    Bishop retired after the grand final.

    1963: St George 8, Western Suburbs 3

    In 1963, St George was minor premiers, while Wests were second. However, Wests, which had lost the previous two grand finals to St George, had beaten them twice in the regular rounds and again in the major semi-final, and went into the game favourite.

    On grand final day, the field deteriorated into a quagmire and led to the famous post-match “gladiators” photograph of captains Arthur Summons and Norm Provan shaking hands while coated in mud.

    The foul conditions contributed to a low-scoring game, which St George won 8–3.

    Once more it was suspected the referee, this time Darcy Lawler, had a financial interest in the outcome. He, too, retired immediately.

    Today we view St George’s victory in the context of a huge winning streak of premierships from 1955 to 1966.

    1989: Canberra 19, Balmain 14

    South Sydney had been minor premiers while Balmain finished third, one point clear of Canberra.

    Balmain were generally considered to have been more impressive than Canberra and were favourites for the grand final.

    One media expert, Harry Craven, was so confident Balmain would win he had his “weatherboard” (house) on the Tigers.

    In the grand final, Balmain led 14-8 with 15 minutes to play before Canberra levelled at 14–14 with 90 seconds remaining.

    After 20 minutes of extra time, Canberra won 19–14 and became the first team to win from further back than third in the regular season.

    1995: Canterbury 17, Manly 4

    Possibly the hottest grand final favourites of the past half-century, Manly lost just two games in the regular season and shared the minor premiership with Canberra.

    Canterbury (officially, the “Sydney Bulldogs” in 1995) were sixth and needed to win four straight games to be premier.

    The two sides met once in the regular season, with Manly winning 26-0.

    In the grand final, the Bulldogs led 6–4 at half-time and disaster loomed when Terry Lamb was sin-binned early in the second term.

    Somehow, the Dogs held Manly out until his return, then gained the ascendancy and won comfortably.

    1997: Newcastle 22, Manly 16

    In 1997 we had the first season of the News Limited-funded “Super League”.

    The glamourous Manly side was once more expected to be easy winners over Newcastle, which was contesting its first grand final.

    Only two teams in 70 years had won at their first attempt, while Manly had won its past 11 matches against the Knights.

    The grand final followed its anticipated plot until Newcastle’s Robbie O’Davis evened the score at 16–16. Newcastle missed with two field goal attempts, but after the second, Darren Albert regathered the ball and pierced the Manly defence to score under the posts with six seconds remaining.

    In 1997, the Newcastle Knights secured a maiden title against the Manly Sea Eagles.

    1999: Melbourne 20, St George Illawarra 18

    Odds for the 1999 grand final are unknown but the press anointed St George “hot favourites” while Canterbury champion Ricky Stuart rated them “unbeatable”.

    Melbourne was in just its second year of NRL competition and had never beaten St George.

    Melbourne had pulled off “escapes” against Canterbury and Parramatta to make the decider but the Saints were winning with ease and even crushed Melbourne 34–10 in the qualifying final.

    In the decider, St George led 14–0 and was looking good. Then, in the 51st minute, Anthony Mundine kicked the ball to a vacant try line but fumbled it touching down.

    The Melbourne Storm shocked the NRL world when they won the 1999 grand final.

    Nevertheless, St George maintained an 18–6 advantage midway through the second half, before a Storm fightback.

    With minutes remaining, Melbourne received a penalty try which it converted to win the game.

    The biggest upset: 1969, Balmain 11, South Sydney 2

    Most agree the biggest grand final upset is Balmain’s 11-2 defeat of South Sydney in 1969.

    Bookies had Souths as heavy favourites – they had won the previous two grand finals, while Balmain was a young team lacking grand final experience.

    However, the form lines of the two teams were not dissimilar.

    At the end of the regular season, South Sydney was the minor premier with Balmain just one win behind them.

    Souths defeated Balmain by one point in the semi-final, and a week later, Balmain beat Manly by a point to scrape into the grand final.

    Despite South’s heavy favouritism, Balmain were not friendless. Of six “experts” whose opinion was sought by one newspaper on the morning of the game, two picked Balmain outright and another conceded them an even-money chance.

    It was perhaps the circumstances of the game, as much as the result, that has lent the 1969 grand final its legend status.

    Souths, noted for their attacking potency, were unable to score a try. Balmain scored a single try early in the second half but then several Balmain players set about disrupting the Souths attack by, allegedly, feigning injuries to give their teammates a breather.

    The game has since become known as the “sit-down grand final”.

    Wayne Peake does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What are the greatest upsets in NRL grand final history? – https://theconversation.com/what-are-the-greatest-upsets-in-nrl-grand-final-history-239380

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  • MIL-Evening Report: XEC is now in Australia. Here’s what we know about this hybrid COVID variant

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lara Herrero, Research Leader in Virology and Infectious Disease, Griffith University

    Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

    Over the nearly five years since COVID first emerged, you’d be forgiven if you’ve lost track of the number of new variants we’ve seen. Some have had a bigger impact than others, but virologists have documented thousands.

    The latest variant to make headlines is called XEC. This omicron subvariant has been reported predominantly in the northern hemisphere, but it has now been detected in Australia too.

    So what do we know about XEC?

    Is COVID still a thing?

    People are now testing for COVID less and reporting it less. Enthusiasm to track the virus is generally waning.

    Nonetheless, Australia is still collecting and reporting COVID data. Although the number of cases is likely to be much higher than the number documented (around 275,000 so far this year), we can still get some idea of when we’re seeing significant waves, compared to periods of lower activity.

    Australia saw its last COVID peak in June 2024. Since then cases have been on the decline.

    But SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID, is definitely still around.

    Which variants are circulating now?

    The main COVID variants circulating currently around the world include BA.2.86, JN.1, KP.2, KP.3 and XEC. These are all descendants of omicron.

    The XEC variant was first detected in Italy in May 2024. The World Health Organization (WHO) designated it as a variant “under monitoring” in September.

    Since its detection, XEC has spread to more than 27 countries across Europe, North America and Asia. As of mid-September, the highest numbers of cases have been identified in countries including the United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Denmark.

    XEC is currently making up around 20% of cases in Germany, 12% in the UK and around 6% in the US.

    The virus behind COVID continues to evolve.
    Photo by Centre for Ageing Better/Pexels

    Although XEC remains a minority variant globally, it appears to have a growth advantage over other circulating variants. We don’t know why yet, but reports suggest it may be able to spread more easily than other variants.

    For this reason, it’s predicted XEC could become the dominant variant worldwide in the coming months.

    How about in Australia?

    The most recent Australian Respiratory Surveillance Report noted there has been an increasing proportion of XEC sequenced recently.

    In Australia, 329 SARS-CoV-2 sequences collected from August 26 to September 22 have been uploaded to AusTrakka, Australia’s national genomics surveillance platform for COVID.

    The majority of sequences (301 out of 329, or 91.5%) were sub-lineages of JN.1, including KP.2 (17 out of 301) and KP.3 (236 out of 301). The remaining 8.5% (28 out of 329) were recombinants consisting of one or more omicron sub-lineages, including XEC.

    Estimates based on data from GISAID, an international repository of viral sequences, suggests XEC is making up around 5% of cases in Australia, or 16 of 314 samples sequenced.

    Queensland reported the highest rates in the past 30 days (8%, or eight of 96 sequences), followed by South Australia (5%, or five out of 93), Victoria (5%, or one of 20) and New South Wales (3%, or two of 71). WA recorded zero sequences out of 34. No data were available for other states and territories.

    What do we know about XEC? What is a recombinant?

    The XEC variant is believed to be a recombinant descendant of two previously identified omicron subvariants, KS.1.1 and KP.3.3. Recombinant variants form when two different variants infect a host at the same time, which allows the viruses to switch genetic information. This leads to the emergence of a new variant with characteristics from both “parent” lineages.

    KS.1.1 is one of the group commonly known as “FLiRT” variants, while, KP.3.3 is one of the “FLuQE” variants. Both of these variant groups have contributed to recent surges in COVID infections around the world.

    The WHO’s naming conventions for new COVID variants often use a combination of letters to denote new variants, particularly those that arise from recombination events among existing lineages. The “X” typically indicates a recombinant variant (as with XBB, for example), while the letters following it identify specific lineages.

    We know very little so far about XEC’s characteristics specifically, and how it differs from other variants. But there’s no evidence to suggest symptoms will be more severe than with earlier versions of the virus.

    What we do know is what mutations this variant has. In the S gene that encodes for the spike protein we can find a T22N mutation (inherited from KS.1.1) as well as Q493E (from KP.3.3) and other mutations
    known to the omicron lineage.

    Will vaccines still work well against XEC?

    The most recent surveillance data doesn’t show any significant increase in COVID hospitalisations. This suggests the current vaccines still provide effective protection against severe outcomes from circulating variants.

    As the virus continues to mutate, vaccine companies will continue to update their vaccines. Both Pfizer and Moderna have updated vaccines to target the JN.1 variant, which is a parent strain of the FLiRT variants and therefore should protect against XEC.

    However, Australia is still waiting to hear which vaccines may become available to the public and when.

    In the meantime, omicron-based vaccines such as the the current XBB.1.5 spikevax (Moderna) or COMIRNATY (Pfizer) are still likely to provide good protection from XEC.

    It’s hard to predict how XEC will behave in Australia as we head into summer. We’ll need more research to understand more about this variant as it spreads. But given XEC was first detected in Europe during the northern hemisphere’s summer months, this suggests XEC might be well suited to spreading in warmer weather.

    Lara Herrero receives funding from NHMRC.

    – ref. XEC is now in Australia. Here’s what we know about this hybrid COVID variant – https://theconversation.com/xec-is-now-in-australia-heres-what-we-know-about-this-hybrid-covid-variant-239292

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How we created a beautiful native wildflower meadow in the heart of the city using threatened grassland species

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katherine Horsfall, PhD Candidate, School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, The University of Melbourne

    Matthew Stanton, CC BY-NC

    A city street may seem an unusual place to save species found in critically endangered grasslands. My new research, though, shows we can use plants from these ecosystems to create beautiful and biodiverse urban wildflower meadows. This means cities, too, can support nature repair.

    Species-rich grassy ecosystems are some of the most threatened plant communities on the planet. Occupying easily developed flat land, grassy ecosystems are routinely sacrificed as our cities expand.

    In south-east Australia, the volcanic plains that support Melbourne’s northern and western suburbs were once grasslands strewn with wildflowers, “resembling a nobleman’s park on a gigantic scale”, according to early explorer Thomas Mitchell. But these exceptionally diverse, critically endangered ecosystems have been reduced to less than 1% of their original area. The few remnants continue to be lost to urban development and weed invasion.

    A mix of the seeds used to create the meadow.
    Hui-Anne Tan, CC BY-NC

    Unfortunately, efforts to restore the grasslands around Melbourne have had mixed results. In 2020 the City of Melbourne took matters into its own hands. Recognising it is possible to enrich the diversity of birds, bats and insects by providing low-growing native plants, the council set a goal to increase understorey plants by 20% on the land it manages.

    Creating a large native grassland in inner-city Royal Park would help achieve this goal. Adopting a technique used by wildflower meadow designers, we sowed a million seeds of more than two dozen species from endangered grasslands around Melbourne. All but one of these species established in the resulting native wildflower meadow.

    The recreated native wildflower meadow is close to an inner-city road.
    Matthew Stanton, CC BY-NC

    What were the challenges at this site?

    Existing restoration techniques remove nutrient-enriched topsoils full of weed seeds before sowing native seeds. The target plant community can then establish with less competition from nutrient-hungry weeds.

    However, this approach could not be used at the Royal Park site. Topsoil removal cannot be used on many urban sites where soils are contaminated or there are underground services. Alternative approaches are needed to reduce weed competition while minimising soil disturbance.

    I saw a possible answer in the horticultural approaches used to create designed wildflower meadows.

    Preparing the selected site in Royal Park by raking away mulch.
    Hui-Anne Tan, CC BY-NC

    While still rare in Australia, designed wildflower meadows can increase the amenity and biodiversity of urban environments. They also reduce the costs of managing and mowing turf grass. These meadows are designed to be infrequently mown or burnt.

    Wildflower meadow designers typically use an international suite of species that can be established from seed and persist without fertiliser or regular irrigation. An abundance of flowers makes people more accepting of “messy” vegetation. Recognising this, designers select a mix of species that will flower for as much of the year as possible.

    Seed being spread by hand across the prepared area in April 2020.
    Hui-Anne Tan, CC BY-NC

    To reduce competition from weeds, these meadows are often created on a layer of sand that covers the original site soils. The low-nutrient sand buries weed seeds and creates a sowing surface that resists weed invasion from the surrounding landscape.

    However, the grasslands around Melbourne grow on clay soils, not sand. Would these techniques work for plants from these ecosystems?

    A deep sand layer controls weeds and slugs

    To find out we sowed more than a million seeds on sites with two depths of sand (10mm and 80mm) and one without a sand layer in Royal Park. Within one year, 26 of the 27 species sown had established to form a dense, flowering meadow across all sand depths. These plants included three threatened species.

    The hoary sunray, Leucochrysum albicans subsp. tricolor, is one of the endangered species in the native wildflower meadow.
    Marc Freestone/Royal Botanic Gardens Victoria, CC BY-NC-SA

    Crucially, the deepest sand layer reduced weed numbers and therefore time spent weeding.

    Interestingly, slugs played a role in determining the diversity of the native meadow. South-east Australia’s grasslands have largely evolved without slugs. As a result, seedlings lack chemical or physical defences against grazing by slugs, which can greatly reduce species diversity in native meadows.

    Again, sand provided a real benefit. Fewer slugs occurred on the deepest sand layer compared to bare soil. The suggestion that sand can deter slugs is consistent with meadow research in Europe.

    By September 2020, seedlings are growing on the prepared plots. The roof tile in the foreground is for monitoring slug numbers.
    Hui-Anne Tan, CC BY-NC

    Now to repair nature in all our cities

    Our research gives us another technique to reinstate critically endangered plant communities. We can use it to bring nature back to city parks and streets.

    Working in urban contexts also unlocks other advantages. There’s ready access to irrigation while the meadow gets established and to communities keen to care for natural landscapes. Creating native wildflower meadows in cities also helps native animals survive, including threatened species that call our cities home.

    People will be able to engage with beautiful native plants that are now rare in cities. Enriching our experience of nature can enhance our health and wellbeing.

    The meadow’s plant community was established by November 2020, six months after sowing.
    David Hannah, CC BY-NC

    My colleagues and I trialled these approaches with the support of the City of Melbourne. We are continuing our research to improve the scale and sustainability of native wildflower meadows in other municipalities.

    Native wildflower meadows and grassland restoration projects could genuinely help Australia meet its commitment to restore 30% of degraded landscapes. But first we need to invest much more in seed production. Reinstating native species on degraded land requires a lot of seed.

    Once seed supply is more certain, we will be able to bring back native biodiversity and beauty to streets, parks and reserves across the country.

    I would like to acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of the land on which the project took place, the Wurundjeri and Bunurong people of the Kulin Nations, and we pay our respects to their Elders, past, present and emerging. I also acknowledge my colleagues listed as co-authors on the research paper that formed the basis of this article: urban ecologists Nicholas S.G. Williams and Stephen Livesley, and seed ecologists Megan Hirst and John Delpratt.

    Katherine Horsfall received funding from the City of Melbourne to undertake this research and receives funding from the Australian Research Training Program.

    – ref. How we created a beautiful native wildflower meadow in the heart of the city using threatened grassland species – https://theconversation.com/how-we-created-a-beautiful-native-wildflower-meadow-in-the-heart-of-the-city-using-threatened-grassland-species-240332

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: From cheeky thrill to grande dame – the Moulin Rouge celebrates 135 years of scandal and success

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Will Visconti, Teacher and researcher, Art History, University of Sydney

    Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec At the Moulin Rouge – The Dance, 1890 Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec/Wikimedia Commons

    When the Moulin Rouge first opened on October 6 1889, it drew audiences from across classes and countries.

    The Moulin offered an array of fin-de-siècle (end-of-the-century) entertainments to Paris locals and visitors. Located in Montmartre, its name, the “red windmill”, alluded to Montmartre’s history as a rural idyll. The neighbourhood was also associated with artistic bohemia, crime, and revolutionary spirit. This setting added a certain thrill for bourgeois audiences.

    From irreverent newcomer to a French institution, the Moulin Rouge has survived scandal, an inferno and found new ways to connect with audiences.



    Read more:
    How the Eiffel Tower became silent cinema’s icon

    Red and electric

    In 1889, the Moulin Rouge was not the only red landmark to open in Paris. The Eiffel Tower, built as part of the Universal Exhibition and originally painted red, had opened earlier that same year. What set them apart, however, was their popularity.

    The Moulin Rouge was an instant hit, capitalising on the global popularity of a dance called the cancan. Dancers like Moulin Rouge headliner La Goulue (“The Glutton”, real name Louise Weber) were seen as more appropriate emblems for the city than the Tower, which many considered an eyesore.

    In an illustration from Le Courrier Français newspaper, a dancer modelled on a photograph of La Goulue holds her leg aloft, flashing her underwear with the caption “Greetings to the provinces and abroad!”.

    Every aspect of the Moulin spoke to the zeitgeist, from its design to the performances, the use of electric lights that adorned its façade, and its advertising.

    Its managers, the impresario team of Joseph Oller and Charles Harold Zidler, had a string of successful venues and businesses to their names. They recognised the importance of modern marketing, using print media, publicity photographs, and posters to spark public interest.

    Among the most iconic images of the Moulin is Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec’s 1891 poster. At its centre is La Goulue, kicking her legs amid swirling petticoats.

    Henri Toulouse-Lautrec’s 1891 poster.
    Shutterstock

    She certainly can cancan

    Found primarily in working-class dance halls from as early as the 1820s, the cancan became a staple of popular entertainment the world over.

    Part of the dance’s thrill lay in the dancers’ freedom of movement and titillation of spectators, as well as its anti-establishment energy. Women used the cancan to thumb their nose at authority via steps like the coup de cul (“arse flash”) or coup du chapeau (removing men’s hats with a high kick).

    The cancan was not the only attraction at the Moulin. There were themed spaces, sideshows, and variety performances ranging from belly dancers and conjoined twins to Le Pétomane (“The Fartomaniac”) who was a flatulist and the highest-paid performer. People watching was equally popular.

    Famous farter, Le Pétomane (Joseph Pujol).
    Wikimedia Commons

    Scandals, riots, and royalty

    Over the years, the Moulin has been no stranger to controversy.

    In its early years, it cultivated an air of misbehaviour and featured in pleasure guides for visiting sex tourists.

    In 1893 it hosted the Bal des Quat’z’Arts (Four-Arts Ball) held by students from local studios. Accusations of public indecency were made against the models and dancers in attendance, and violent protests followed after the women were arrested.

    In 1907 the writer Colette appeared onstage at the Moulin in an Egyptian-inspired pantomime with her then-lover, Missy, the Marquise de Belbeuf. When the act culminated in a passionate kiss, a riot broke out.

    Historical footage shows the Moulin Rouge as it was.

    Kicking on and on

    Over time, the Moulin Rouge shows changed their format to keep pace with public taste, though the cancan remained. The venue hosted revues and operettas, and various stars including Edith Piaf, Ella Fitzgerald, Frank Sinatra and Liza Minnelli.

    Famous guests have included British royalty: from Edward VII (while Prince of Wales) to his great-granddaughter, Queen Elizabeth II, and her son, Prince Edward.

    Since its opening, the Moulin’s fortunes have waxed and waned.

    In 1915 the Moulin Rouge burned down but was rebuilt in 1921. Its famous windmill sails fell off overnight earlier this year but were swiftly repaired.

    In the 1930s, it survived the Depression and rise of cinema (also capturing the attention of several filmakers). It also survived the Nazi occupation of Paris in the 1940s.

    By the early 1960s, Jacki Clerico was managing the Moulin’s show after his father had revamped the venue as a dinner theatre destination. The younger Clérico oversaw additions like a giant aquarium where dancers swam with snakes, and its now-famous “nude line” – a chorus of topless dancers – in its shows.

    In 1963, the Moulin Rouge struck upon a winning formula: revues, all named by Clérico with titles beginning with the letter “F” – from Frou Frou to Fantastique and Formidable. Since 1999, the revue Féerie (“Fairy”, also a French genre of stage extravaganza) has been performed almost without interruption.

    The Moulin Rouge or ‘red mill’ today, with its famous windmill.
    Rafa Barcelos/Shutterstock

    Ticket sales were boosted thanks to Baz Luhrmann’s 2001 film Moulin Rouge! and more recently Moulin Rouge! The Musical.

    Since COVID, the Moulin Rouge management have diversified. The windmill’s interior has been rented out via AirBnB and the Moulin’s dance troupe has performed on France’s televised New Year’s Eve celebrations. This year, the Moulin Rouge and its dancers were part of the Paris Olympics celebrations, dancing in heavy rain.

    Though people have come to appreciate the Eiffel Tower too, the Moulin Rouge can still argue its status as the pinnacle of live entertainment in the French capital: immediately recognisable, internationally visible, and quintessentially Parisian.

    Will Visconti is the author of Beyond the Moulin Rouge: The Life & Legacy of La Goulue (2022), published by the University of Virginia Press.

    – ref. From cheeky thrill to grande dame – the Moulin Rouge celebrates 135 years of scandal and success – https://theconversation.com/from-cheeky-thrill-to-grande-dame-the-moulin-rouge-celebrates-135-years-of-scandal-and-success-239849

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 71% of Australian uni staff are using AI. What are they using it for? What about those who aren’t?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Hay, Senior Lecturer, School of Education and Professional Studies, Griffith University

    Yanz Island/Shutterstock

    Since ChatGPT was released at the end of 2022, there has been a lot of speculation about the actual and potential impact of generative AI on universities.

    Some studies have focused on students’ use of AI. There has also been research on what it means for teaching and assessment.

    But there has been no large-scale research on how university staff in Australia are using AI in their work.

    Our new study surveyed more than 3,000 academic and professional staff at Australian universities about how they are using generative AI.

    Our study

    Our survey was made up of 3,421 university staff, mostly from 17 universities around Australia.

    It included academics, sessional academics (who are employed on a session-by-session basis) and professional staff. It also included adjunct staff (honorary academic positions) and senior staff in executive roles.

    Academic staff represented a wide range of disciplines including health, education, natural and physical sciences, and society and culture. Professional staff worked in roles such as research support, student services and marketing.

    The average age of respondents was 44.8 years and more than half the sample was female (60.5%).

    The survey was open online for around eight weeks in 2024.

    We surveyed academic and professional staff at universities around Australia.
    Panitan/Shutterstock

    Most university staff are using AI

    Overall, 71% of respondents said they had used generative AI for their university work.

    Academic staff were more likely to use AI (75%) than professional staff (69%) or sessional staff (62%). Senior staff were the most likely to use AI (81%).

    Among academic staff, those from information technology, engineering, and management and commerce were most likely to use AI. Those from agriculture and environmental studies, and natural and physical sciences, were least likely to use it.

    Professional staff in business development, and learning and teaching support, were the most likely to report using AI. Those working in finance and procurement, and legal and compliance areas, were least likely to use AI.

    Given how much publicity and debate there has been about AI in the past two years, the fact that nearly 30% of university staff had not used AI suggests adoption is still at an early stage.

    What tools are staff using?

    Survey respondents were asked which AI tools they had used in the previous year. They reported using 216 different AI tools, which was many more than we anticipated.

    Around one-third of those using AI had only used one tool, and a further quarter had used two. A small number of staff (around 4%) had used ten tools or more.

    General AI tools were by far the most frequently reported. For example, ChatGPT was used by 88% of AI users and Microsoft Copilot by 37%.

    University staff are also commonly using AI tools with specific purposes such as image creation, coding and software development, and literature searching.

    We also asked respondents how frequently they used AI for a range of university tasks. Literature searching, writing and summarising information were the most common, followed by course development, teaching methods and assessment.

    ChatGPT was the most common generative AI tool used by our respondents.
    Monkey Business Images/ Shutterstock

    Why aren’t some staff using AI?

    We asked staff who had not yet used AI for work to explain their thinking. The most common reason they gave was AI was not useful or relevant to their work. For example, one professional staff member stated:

    While I have explored a couple of chat tools (Chat GPT and CoPilot) with work-related questions, I’ve not needed to really apply these tools to my work yet […].

    Others said they weren’t familiar with the technology, were uncertain about its use or didn’t have time to engage. As one academic told us plainly, “I don’t feel confident enough yet”.

    Ethical objections to AI

    Others raised ethical objections or viewed the technology as untrustworthy and unreliable. As one academic told us:

    I consider generative AI to be a tool of plagiarism. The uses to date, especially in the creative industries […] have involved machine learning that uses the creative works of others without permission.

    They also also raised about AI undermining human activities such as writing, critical thinking and creativity – which they saw as central to their professional identities. As one sessional academic said:

    I want to think things through myself rather than trying to have a computer think for me […].

    Another academic echoed:

    I believe that writing and thinking is fundamental to the work we do. If we’re not doing that, then […] why do we need to exist as academics?

    How should universities respond?

    Universities are at a crucial juncture with generative AI. They face an uneven uptake of the technology by staff in different roles and divided opinions on how universities should respond.

    These different views suggest universities need to have a balanced response to AI that addresses both the benefits and concerns around this technology.

    Despite differing opinions in our survey, there was still agreement among respondents that universities need to develop clear, consistent policies and guidelines to help staff use AI. Staff also said it was crucial for universities to prioritise staff training and invest in secure AI tools.

    Alicia Feldman receives an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship and Fee Offset.

    Paula McDonald receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Abby Cathcart and Stephen Hay do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 71% of Australian uni staff are using AI. What are they using it for? What about those who aren’t? – https://theconversation.com/71-of-australian-uni-staff-are-using-ai-what-are-they-using-it-for-what-about-those-who-arent-240337

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Is big tech harming society? To find out, we need research – but it’s being manipulated by big tech itself

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Graham, Associate Professor in Digital Media, Queensland University of Technology

    AlexandraPopova/Shutterstock

    For almost a decade, researchers have been gathering evidence that the social media platform Facebook disproportionately amplifies low-quality content and misinformation.

    So it was something of a surprise when in 2023 the journal Science published a study that found Facebook’s algorithms were not major drivers of misinformation during the 2020 United States election.

    This study was funded by Facebook’s parent company, Meta. Several Meta employees were also part of the authorship team. It attracted extensive media coverage. It was also celebrated by Meta’s president of global affairs, Nick Clegg, who said it showed the company’s algorithms have “no detectable impact on polarisation, political attitudes or beliefs”.

    But the findings have recently been thrown into doubt by a team of researchers led by Chhandak Bagch from the University of Massachusetts Amherst. In an eLetter also published in Science, they argue the results were likely due to Facebook tinkering with the algorithm while the study was being conducted.

    In a response eLetter, the authors of the original study acknowledge their results “might have been different” if Facebook had changed its algorithm in a different way. But they insist their results still hold true.

    The whole debacle highlights the problems caused by big tech funding and facilitating research into their own products. It also highlights the crucial need for greater independent oversight of social media platforms.

    Merchants of doubt

    Big tech has started investing heavily in academic research into its products. It has also been investing heavily in universities more generally. For example, Meta and its chief Mark Zuckerberg have collectively donated hundreds of millions of dollars to more than 100 colleges and universities across the United States.

    This is similar to what big tobacco once did.

    In the mid-1950s, cigarette companies launched a coordinated campaign to manufacture doubt about the growing body of evidence which linked smoking with a number of serious health issues, such as cancer. It was not about falsifying or manipulating research explicitly, but selectively funding studies and bringing to attention inconclusive results.

    This helped foster a narrative that there was no definitive proof smoking causes cancer. In turn, this enabled tobacco companies to keep up a public image of responsibility and “goodwill” well into the 1990s.

    Big tobacco ran a campaign to manufacture doubt about the health effects of smoking.
    Ralf Liebhold/Shutterstock

    A positive spin

    The Meta-funded study published in Science in 2023 claimed Facebook’s news feed algorithm reduced user exposure to untrustworthy news content. The authors said “Meta did not have the right to prepublication approval”, but acknowledged that The Facebook Open Research and Transparency team “provided substantial support in executing the overall project”.

    The study used an experimental design where participants – Facebook users – were randomly allocated into a control group or treatment group.

    The control group continued to use Facebook’s algorithmic news feed, while the treatment group was given a news feed with content presented in reverse chronological order. The study sought to compare the effects of these two types of news feeds on users’ exposure to potentially false and misleading information from untrustworthy news sources.

    The experiment was robust and well designed. But during the short time it was conducted, Meta changed its news feed algorithm to boost more reliable news content. In doing so, it changed the control condition of the experiment.

    The reduction in exposure to misinformation reported in the original study was likely due to the algorithmic changes. But these changes were temporary: a few months later in March 2021, Meta reverted the news feed algorithm back to the original.

    In a statement to Science about the controversy, Meta said it made the changes clear to researchers at the time, and that it stands by Clegg’s statements about the findings in the paper.

    Unprecedented power

    In downplaying the role of algorithmic content curation for issues such as misinformation and political polarisation, the study became a beacon for sowing doubt and uncertainty about the harmful influence of social media algorithms.

    To be clear, I am not suggesting the researchers who conducted the original 2023 study misled the public. The real problem is that social media companies not only control researchers’ access to data, but can also manipulate their systems in a way that affects the findings of the studies they fund.

    What’s more, social media companies have the power to promote certain studies on the very platform the studies are about. In turn, this helps shape public opinion. It can create a scenario where scepticism and doubt about the impacts of algorithms can become normalised – or where people simply start to tune out.

    This kind of power is unprecedented. Even big tobacco could not control the public’s perception of itself so directly.

    All of this underscores why platforms should be mandated to provide both large-scale data access and real-time updates about changes to their algorithmic systems.

    When platforms control access to the “product”, they also control the science around its impacts. Ultimately, these self-research funding models allow platforms to put profit before people – and divert attention away from the need for more transparency and independent oversight.

    Timothy Graham receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) for his Discovery Early Career Researcher Award, ‘Combatting Coordinated Inauthentic Behaviour on Social Media’. He also receives ARC funding for the Discovery Project, ‘Understanding and combatting “Dark Political Communication”‘ (2024–2027).

    – ref. Is big tech harming society? To find out, we need research – but it’s being manipulated by big tech itself – https://theconversation.com/is-big-tech-harming-society-to-find-out-we-need-research-but-its-being-manipulated-by-big-tech-itself-240110

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘Carbon contracts for difference’ are not a silver bullet for climate action

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Daniel Rosenbloom, Assistant Professor and Rosamond Ivey Research Chair in Sustainability Transitions, Carleton University

    Canadian federal climate policies and investments look increasingly fragile. Could ‘carbon contracts for difference’ help ensure the survival of long-term climate action in Canada? (Shutterstock)

    With the end of the supply-and-confidence agreement and plummeting support for the Liberals, Canada’s climate policy mix is becoming increasingly unstable with the future of everything from investment tax credits to carbon pricing seemingly in flux.

    Given this uncertainty, some industrial emitters have stated they will refrain from making final investment decisions for major emission reducing projects until they receive certain guarantees. Their rationale is that the potential reversal of any climate policy risks the return on investment for their proposed projects.

    Experts have pointed to an obscure mechanism known as a carbon contracts for difference (CCfDs) as an opportunity to allay such concerns.



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    Carbon contracts for difference

    CCfDs are contractual agreements designed to provide price stability for projects that reduce emissions. Under CCfDs, a government entity guarantees a fixed price for the emissions reductions achieved by an industrial project based on established climate policy (for example, the existing or future carbon price).

    If the market price for those reductions falls below this fixed price, the government pays the difference to the project proponents. If the market price exceeds the fixed price, the excess is paid back to the government.

    This type of mechanism is used by a number of governments around the world, including the United Kingdom, and some experts have suggested that a “broad-based contracts for difference program is the key to unlocking billions of dollars of investment in industrial decarbonization.”

    The elegance and deceptive simplicity of this instrument has made it a policy winner in the eyes of many.

    The Canada Growth Fund has allocated up to $7 billion for the issuance of CCfDs to unlock decarbonization projects. In theory, using a CCfD agreement gives an industry partner price stability on investment while the government gets to advance its goals of large emissions reducing projects. Seemingly, a win-win.

    However, growing interdisciplinary research suggests that CCfDs may not always be the obvious win many assume they are.

    Feedback

    There is a long-held understanding in political science that policies produce important feedback patterns that can either reinforce or erode their durability. For example, the social security program in the United States has created a significant voting bloc of beneficiaries that makes it difficult for policymakers to propose cuts to the program.

    Bridging these insights with transition perspectives, my research indicates that harnessing these positive feedbacks can play an important role in building durable climate action.



    Read more:
    What does the end of the Liberal-NDP agreement mean for Canadians?

    In Germany, scholars have found that incentives for new renewable energy (such as in the form of tariffs) helped build coalitions around alternative energy innovations. These coalitions in turn placed pressure upon leaders to ensure continued policy support. Similarly, scholars have shown that industrial policies that support alternative energy innovations and their networks can create positive feedbacks for the climate policy mix.

    Translating these insights to the broad-based use of CCfDs reveals that this instrument risks undermining positive feedbacks or encouraging industrial decarbonization projects with limited ability to contribute to a long-term transition to net-zero.

    Not a perfect solution

    There are three main issues with a CCfD-based approach.

    First, as CCfDs protect the recipient’s bottom line, they are not necessarily incentivized to support existing climate policy. Some experts suggest that a way around this issue is to set the guaranteed price for carbon below the genuine carbon pricing policy. However, it is unclear how low such a discounted price would need to be to maintain positive feedbacks, or if the proposed difference would be sufficient to motivate final investment decisions.

    Second, providing CCfDs for certain emissions reduction projects (such as carbon capture and storage) may inadvertently support industries that have an interest in reversing the direction of climate policy. This focus on opportunities that extend current systems or deliver least-cost emissions reductions reflects a common tendency in policymaking to misunderstand the climate crisis as simply a market failure, and not an issue requiring whole systems change.



    Read more:
    Why do we need a Net Zero Economy Authority? And how can it fulfil its promise?

    Third, the time required to issue CCfDs on a case-by-case basis may actually encourage industrial actors to hold off on making final investment decisions until they receive a guarantee, delaying action further.

    What this shows is that while CCfDs may have a targeted role to play in advancing critical emission reduction projects (such as those that unlock systems change in key sectors), policymakers should be wary of relying too heavily on this instrument.

    A more strategic approach is needed that involves charting pathways between where sectors are now and long-term desirable net-zero outcomes — an approach that is being actively advanced by Canada’s Transition Accelerator. A strategic approach would focus support on industries willing to hitch their carts to the future of the climate policy mix and defend climate action no matter who is in office.

    As the Ivey Research Chair in Sustainability Transitions, Daniel Rosenbloom would like to acknowledge the generous support of the Ivey Foundation. Rosenbloom is also a Steering Group member of the Sustainability Transitions Research Network, which is a scholarly network working toward the advancement of transition scholarship.

    – ref. ‘Carbon contracts for difference’ are not a silver bullet for climate action – https://theconversation.com/carbon-contracts-for-difference-are-not-a-silver-bullet-for-climate-action-237437

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Little kids, too little movement: Global study finds most children don’t meet guidelines for physical activity, screen time and sleep

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Mark S Tremblay, Professor of Pediatrics in the Faculty of Medicine and Senior Scientist at the CHEO Research Institute, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

    A recent study found that only 14 per cent of preschoolers around the world are meeting movement recommendations for physical activity, sleep and screen time. (Shutterstock)

    Appropriate levels of physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep (collectively termed movement behaviours) are essential for the healthy growth and development of preschool-aged children.

    This was the impetus for creating the Canadian 24-Hour Movement Guidelines for the Early Years (birth to four years). Likewise, this is why the World Health Organization adopted the Canadian guidelines when creating the global guidelines on physical activity, sedentary behaviour and sleep for children under five years of age.

    Considering the extensive benefits of movement behaviours, it is very alarming that a recent study found that only 14 per cent of preschoolers around the world are meeting movement behaviour guideline recommendations.

    A 24-hour day in the life of a preschooler meeting the guideline recommendations includes:

    • three or more hours of total physical activity (including at least one hour of energetic play or activities that make them slightly out of breath),
    • one hour or less of screen time, and
    • 10 to 13 hours of good quality sleep

    Importantly, preschoolers who meet these guidelines gain health benefits such as reduced risk of obesity, improved social and emotional skills, and proficient motor skills.

    Global levels

    Preschoolers with healthy movement behaviour habits meeting these guideline recommendations gain health benefits such as reduced risk of obesity, improved social and emotional skills, and proficient motor skills.
    (Pixabay/Oleksandr Pidvalnyi)

    A new global study shows most children around the world don’t meet these guidelines. The study included more than 7,000 preschoolers from 33 different countries, including Canada. The countries represented various World Bank income groups (e.g., high, middle and low income countries); and the geographical regions of Africa, Americas, Eastern Mediterranean, Europe, Southeast Asia and Western Pacific.

    When looking at each movement behaviour individually for preschoolers around the world, 49 per cent met the physical activity recommendations, 42 per cent met the screen time recommendation, and 81 per cent met the sleep recommendation.

    That most young children are not meeting each of these basic recommendations separately is cause for concern; that 86 per cent are not meeting all guideline recommendations combined is alarming and places preschoolers around the world at risk of sub-standard health and development.

    Globally, 81 per cent of preschoolers met sleep recommendations.
    (Shutterstock)

    Seventeen per cent of boys met all the guideline recommendations, compared to 13 per cent of girls. This slight difference was driven by more boys meeting the physical activity recommendation (56 per cent boys, 42 per cent girls), and protected from being even worse by more girls meeting the screen time (45 per cent girls, 38 per cent boys) and sleep (82 per cent girls, 79 per cent boys) recommendations.

    The fact that boys had more screen time and less good quality sleep could be related, as previous research has found screen time overall and screen time in the evening is associated with less sleep and lower sleep quality.

    Better screen time and sleep habits for girls protected their overall movement behaviour adherence from being even worse, showcasing the various paths to health through different movement behaviour combinations. However, the low number meeting all movement behaviour recommendations demonstrates the need for all preschoolers to routinely be more active, reduce screen time and accumulate good quality sleep in a day.

    By income

    Screen time in the evening is associated with less sleep and lower sleep quality.
    (Shutterstock)

    Low-income countries had the highest movement behaviour guideline adherence levels (17 per cent), compared to middle-income (12 per cent) and high-income (14 per cent) countries.

    While children from high-income countries were more active and had more quality sleep, they also had the worst screen time behaviours compared to low- and middle-income countries. It is a double-edged sword that in higher-income countries, children have more access to physical activity opportunities and quality sleep environments, but also more access to screen time devices.

    Likewise, middle-income countries with the lowest movement behaviour adherence rates could symbolize a region’s development transition where infrastructure in the homes and communities cannot yet support more physical activity and good quality sleep, but availability of cell phones, televisions and other screens leads to increased sedentary behaviours.

    By region

    The African and European regions had the highest movement behaviour adherence (24 per cent), while the Americas region had the lowest (eight per cent). With 17 per cent meeting the screen time recommendations and 68 per cent meeting the physical activity recommendations, the Americas region had the worst screen time and best physical activity.

    The physical activity levels of the Americas region preschoolers are higher compared to the 39 per cent of older Canadian children and youth as reported in the ParticipACTION Report Card on Physical Activity for Children and Youth. But these older Canadian children and youth did have slightly better, albeit still poor, screen time behaviours with 27 per cent meeting the guidelines.

    Sixty-eight per cent of preschool-aged children in the Americas were meeting the physical activity recommendations, compared to only 26 per cent of Southeast Asian children. However, it remains a concern that roughly half of all young children around the world are at risk of sub-optimal health and development from lack of physical activity.

    Roughly half of all young children around the world are at risk of sub-optimal health and development from lack of physical activity.
    (Shutterstock)

    Guidance for improvements can be drawn from the World Health Organization’s Global Action Plan on Physical Activity, where the goal of a 15 per cent relative reduction in global physical inactivity rates by 2030 relies on capacity-building collaborations within research organizations and alliances to strengthen our global understanding of movement behaviours.

    Along with the best movement behaviours overall, the African region had the best screen time levels with 63 per cent meeting the recommendations. This is potentially explained by limited access to screen time devices.

    However, to better understand why screen time behaviours are better in Africa, initiatives like the Active Healthy Kids Global Alliance Global Matrix project should be used as a model. Within the Global Matrix, region-level differences are an opportunity to learn the strengths of other regions, while addressing regional weaknesses at home.

    For instance, Canada could be a model for less active countries, while attempting to model the African region’s reduced screen time lifestyles. Further, projects such as the SUNRISE study — where researchers from more than 70 countries are collaborating to measure preschoolers’ movement behaviours, health and development — are excellent venues for this necessary capacity-building and global learning.

    Take home

    The WHO has Global Movement Guidelines for preschool children and a Global Action Plan to increase physical activity. Canada has similar guidelines and a similar plan.

    However, health movement behaviour levels in Canada and across the globe are unsatisfactory and forecast further global health challenges, inequalities, and distancing from United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. It’s time to get our little ones a little more active.

    Mark S Tremblay has received research funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Public Health Agency of Canada for research distally related to this article. He is affiliated with the Canadian Society for Exercise Physiology who created the Canadian 24-hour Movement Guidelines for the Early Years, under his leadership. He was also on the expert panel for the World Health Organization for the development of the global guidelines cited in the article.

    Nicholas Kuzik does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Little kids, too little movement: Global study finds most children don’t meet guidelines for physical activity, screen time and sleep – https://theconversation.com/little-kids-too-little-movement-global-study-finds-most-children-dont-meet-guidelines-for-physical-activity-screen-time-and-sleep-240421

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Down and under pressure: US and UK artists are taking over Australian charts, leaving local talent behind

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Kelly, PhD Candidate, University of Technology Sydney

    Shutterstock

    Missy Higgins’ recent ARIA number-one album, The Second Act, represents an increasingly rare sighting: an Australian artist at the top of an Australian chart.

    My recently published analysis of Australia’s best-selling singles and albums from 2000 to 2023 shows a significant decline in the representation of artists from Australia and non-English-speaking countries.

    The findings suggest music streaming in Australia – together with algorithmic recommendation – is creating a monoculture dominated by artists from the United States and United Kingdom. This could spell bad news for our music industry if things don’t change.

    Who dominates Australian charts?

    In 2023, Australia’s recorded music industry was worth about A$676 million, up 10.9% year on year.

    Building a strong local music industry is important, not only to support diverse cultural expression, but also to create jobs and boost Australia’s reputation on a global stage.

    When Australian artists succeed, this attracts global investment, which in turn stimulates all aspects of the local music industry. Conversely, a weak music economy can lead to global disinvestment, thereby disadvantaging local companies, artists and consumers.

    My research shows how the rise of music streaming – which became the dominant format for Australian recorded music sales in 2017 – has had a noticeable impact on the diversity of artists represented in the ARIA top 100 single and album charts.

    In the year 2000, the top 100 singles chart featured hits from 14 different countries. By contrast, only seven countries were represented in 2023.

    The percentage of Australian and New Zealand artists in the top 100 single charts declined from an average of 16% in 2000–16 to around 10% in 2017–23, and just 2.5% in 2023.

    Album share also declined from an average of 29% in 2000–16 to 18% in 2017–23, and 4% in 2023.

    This chart shows changes in diveristy in the ARIA top 100 albums chart over 22 years.
    Author provided

    Similarly, the proportion of artists from outside the Anglo bloc of North America, the UK and Australia/New Zealand declined from an average of 11.1% in 2000–16 to 7.3% in 2017–23 – while album share declined from 5% in 2000–16 to 2.3% in 2017–23.

    My study also found representation of Indigenous artists remained low, but stable, over the period studied – and in line with population ratios.

    Concetration of power

    The findings suggest the decline in Australian and non-Anglo representation in the ARIA top 100 charts is linked.

    Some economists and academics have argued easier access to independent music and global distribution via streaming will lead to greater diversity in music. But this hasn’t been the case in Australia, at least as far as chart-topping artists are concerned.

    The global recorded music industry has consolidated in recent years. In the early 2000s there were five major music labels. Currently there are just three: Universal, Sony and Warner.

    Last year, these three labels were responsible for more than 95% of the Australian top 100 single and album charts. Meanwhile, Spotify, Apple Music and YouTube make up an estimated 97% of the Australian streaming market.

    These concentrations of power allow a handful of record labels and distributors to have a disproportionate influence over music design, production, distribution and governance – thereby limiting opportunities for diversity.

    The need for new policy

    My findings align with European research that found markets with a strong cultural differentiator of language are showing increased national diversity with streaming.

    However, countries without a distinctive language are being increasingly dominated by global music production. In Australia’s case, we’re becoming reliant on the star-making machinery of the US.

    Recently, Australia’s live music crisis came under scrutiny at a federal government inquiry, which highlighted the significant power imbalance between artists and multinational promoters.

    As I and many others have suggested, targeted cultural policies are necessary to combat our highly concentrated and US-dependent market.

    Relying on labels and streaming platforms will do little to preserve and promote our nation’s unique musical and cultural identity.

    Previous employment at Sony Music, Universal Music, Inertia Music. ARIA Chart Committee member 2005-2017. Employment at these labels ceased by 2017. No continued professional relationship with any of the companies.

    – ref. Down and under pressure: US and UK artists are taking over Australian charts, leaving local talent behind – https://theconversation.com/down-and-under-pressure-us-and-uk-artists-are-taking-over-australian-charts-leaving-local-talent-behind-239822

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ADHD prescribing has changed over the years – a new guide aims to bring doctors up to speed

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brenton Prosser, Professor of Public Policy and Leadership, UNSW Sydney

    Ketut Subiyanto/Pexels

    Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is the most diagnosed childhood neurological disorder in Australia.

    Over the years, it has been the subject of controversy about potential misdiagnosis and overdiagnosis. There has also been variation in levels of diagnosis and drug prescription, depending on where you live and your socioeconomic status.

    To address these concerns and improve consistency in ADHD diagnosis and prescribing, the Australasian ADHD Professionals Association has released a new prescribing guide. This will help the health-care workforce to consistently get the right treatment to the right people, with the right mix of medical and non-medical supports.

    Here’s how ADHD prescribing has changed over time and what the new guidelines mean.

    What is ADHD and how is it treated?

    Up to one in ten young Australians experience ADHD. It is diagnosed due to inattention, hyperactivity and impulsivity that has negative effects at home, school or work.

    Psychostimulant medication is a central pillar of ADHD treatment.

    However, the internationally recognised approach is to combine medicines with non-medical interventions in a multimodal approach. These non-medical interventions include cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), occupational therapy, educational strategies and other supports.

    Medication use has changed over time

    In Australia, Ritalin (methylphenidate) was originally the most prescribed ADHD medication. This changed in the 1990s after the introduction of dexamphetamine, along with the subsequent availability of Vyvance (lisdexamfetamine).

    Perhaps the most significant change has come with “slow release” versions of the above medications that can last more than eight hours (longer than a school day).

    When following clinical guidelines, prescribing medication for ADHD is safe practice. Yet the use of amphetamines to treat young people with ADHD has caused public concern. This highlights the importance of consistent guidelines for prescribing professionals.

    Medication for ADHD can be combined with other non-drug approaches.
    Caleb Woods/Unsplash

    Growth in diagnosis and prescribing

    Starting from low levels, there was a dramatic rise in diagnosis and drug treatment in the 1990s. Much of this was overseen by a small number of psychiatrists and paediatricians in each state or territory. While this promised the potential of consistency in the early days, it also raised concerns about best practice.

    This led to the development of the first ADHD clinical guidelines by the National Medical Health and Research Council in 1997.

    It was followed by several refinements as prescription expanded due to changing diagnostic criteria (expanding to include a dual diagnosis with autism) and the need for best practice with the growing prescription by GPs. These guidelines enhanced the consistency of approaches nationally and reduced the likelihood of misdiagnosis or overdiagnosis.

    However, a recent Senate inquiry found diagnosis and drug treatment continued to grow substantially in the five years to 2022. It emphasised the need for a more consistent approach to diagnosis and prescribing.

    First the ingredients, then the recipe

    The most recent clinical guidelines, released by the Australasian ADHD Professionals Association in 2022, outlined a roadmap for ADHD clinical practice, research and policy. They did so by drawing on the lived experience of those with ADHD. They also emphasised broader health questions, such as how to respond to ADHD as a holistic condition.

    It remains difficult to predict individual responses to different medication. So the new prescribing guide offers practical advice about safe and responsible prescribing. This aims to reduce the potential for incorrect prescribing, dosing and adjusting of ADHD medication, across different age groups, settings and individuals.

    To put this visually, the clinical guidelines describe what the ingredients of the cake should be, while the prescribing guidelines provide step-by-step recipes.

    So what do they recommend?

    An important principle in both these documents is that medication should not be the first and only treatment. Not every drug works the same way for every child. In some cases they do not work at all.

    The possible side effects of medication vary and include poor appetite, sleep problems, headaches, stomach aches, moodiness and irritability. These guidelines assist in adapting medication to reduce these side effects.

    Medication provides an important window of opportunity for many young people to gain maximum value from psychosocial and psychoeducational supports. These supports can, among others, include:

    Support for ADHD can also include parent training. This is not to suggest parents cause ADHD. Rather, they can support more effective treatment, especially since the rigours of ADHD can be a challenge to even the “perfect” parent.

    Getting the right diagnosis

    There have been reports of people seeking to use TikTok to self-diagnose, as well as a rise in people using ADHD stimulants without a prescription.

    However, the message from these new guidelines is that ADHD diagnosis is a complex process that takes a specialist at least three hours. Online sources might be useful to prompt people to seek help, but diagnosis should come from a qualified health-care professional.

    Finally, while we have moved beyond unhelpful past debate about whether ADHD is real to consolidate best diagnostic and prescribing practice, there is some way to go in reducing stigma and changing negative community attitudes to ADHD.

    Hopefully in future we’ll be better able to cherish diversity and difference, and not just see it as a deficit.

    Brenton Prosser is a Board Member of the Council of Academic Public Health Institutions Australasia and affiliated with the School of Population Health at UNSW.

    – ref. ADHD prescribing has changed over the years – a new guide aims to bring doctors up to speed – https://theconversation.com/adhd-prescribing-has-changed-over-the-years-a-new-guide-aims-to-bring-doctors-up-to-speed-240313

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Curious Kids: What does the edge of the universe look like?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sara Webb, Lecturer, Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology

    Greg Rakozy/Shutterstock

    What does the edge of the universe look like?

    Lily, age 7, Harcourt

    What a great question! In fact, this is one of those questions humans will continue to ask until the end of time. That’s because we don’t actually know for sure.

    But we can try and imagine what the edge of the universe might be, if there is one.

    Looking back in time

    Before we begin, we do need to go back in time. Our night sky has looked the same for all of human history. It’s been so reliable, humans from all around the world came up with patterns they saw in the stars as a way to navigate and explore.

    To our eyes, the sky looks endless. With the invention of telescopes about 400 years ago, humans were able to see farther – more than just our eyes ever could. They continued to discover new things in the sky. They found more stars, and then eventually started to notice that there were a lot of strange-looking cosmic clouds.

    Astronomers gave them the name “nebula” from the Latin word for “mist” or “cloud”.

    It was less than 100 years ago that we first confirmed these cosmic clouds or nebulas were actually galaxies. They are just like Milky Way, the galaxy our own planet is in, but very far away.

    What is amazing is that in every direction we look in the universe, we see more and more galaxies. In this James Webb Space Telescope image, which is looking at a part of the sky no bigger than a grain of sand, you can see thousands of galaxies.

    It’s hard to imagine there is an edge where all of this stops.

    The edge of the universe

    However, there is technically an edge to our universe. We call it our “observable” universe.

    This is because we don’t actually know if our universe is infinite – meaning it continues forever and ever.

    Unfortunately, we might never know because of one pesky thing: the speed of light.

    We can only ever see light that’s had enough time to travel to us. Light travels at exactly 299,792,458 metres per second. Even at those speeds, it still takes a long time to cross our universe. Scientists estimate the size of the universe is at least 96 billion light years across, and likely even bigger.

    You can learn a little more about that and our universe as a whole in this video below.

    What would we see if there was an edge?

    If we were to travel to the very, very edge of the universe we think exists, what would there actually be?

    Many other scientists and I theorise that there would just be … more universe!

    As I said, there is a theory that our universe doesn’t actually have an edge, and might continue on indefinitely.

    But there are other theories, too. If our universe does have an edge, and you cross it, you might just end up in a completely different universe altogether. (That is best saved for science fiction for now.)

    Even though there isn’t a straightforward answer to your question, it is precisely questions like these that help us continue to explore and discover the universe, and allow us to understand our place within it. You’re thinking like a true scientist.

    Sara Webb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Curious Kids: What does the edge of the universe look like? – https://theconversation.com/curious-kids-what-does-the-edge-of-the-universe-look-like-233111

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NSW will remove 65,000 years of Aboriginal history from its syllabus. It’s a step backwards for education

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Westaway, Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Archaeology, School of Social Science, The University of Queensland

    The NSW Education Standards Authority has announced that teaching of the Aboriginal past prior to European arrival will be excluded from the Year 7–10 syllabus as of 2027.

    Since 2012, the topic “Ancient Australia” has been taught nationally in Year 7 as part of the Australian Curriculum. In 2022, a new topic called the “deep time history of Australia” was introduced to provide a more detailed study of 65,000 years of First Nations’ occupation of the continent.

    However, New South Wales has surprisingly dropped this topic from its new syllabus, which will be rolled out in 2027. Instead, students will only learn First Nations’ history following European colonisation in 1788.

    This directly undermines the Alice Springs (Mparntwe) Education Declaration of 2020. This is a national agreement, signed by education ministers from all jurisdictions, which states:

    We recognise the more than 60,000 years [sic] of continual connection by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as a key part of the nation’s history, present and future.

    If the planned change to the syllabus goes through, the only Aboriginal history taught to NSW students would be that which reflects the destruction of traditional Aboriginal society. It also means Aboriginal students in NSW will be denied a chance to learn about their deep ancestral past.

    The significance of Australia’s deep time past

    Bruce Pascoe’s groundbreaking 2014 book Dark Emu (which sold more than 500,000 copies), and the associated documentary, have highlighted an enormous appetite for learning about Australia’s deep time past.

    Hundreds of thousands of Australians engaged with Dark Emu. As anthropologist Paul Memmott notes, the book prompted a debate that encouraged a better understanding of Aboriginal society and its complexity.

    It also generated research that investigated whether terms such as “hunter-gatherers” are appropriate for defining past Aboriginal society and economic systems.



    Read more:
    Farmers or foragers? Pre-colonial Aboriginal food production was hardly that simple

    In schools, teachers have used Pascoe’s book Young Dark Emu to introduce students to sophisticated land and aquaculture systems used by First Peoples prior to colonisation.

    The book raises an important question. If you lived in a country that invented bread and the edge-ground axe – a culture that independently developed early trade and social living – and did all of this without resorting to land war – wouldn’t you want your children to know about it?

    For many students, the history they learn at school is knowledge they carry into their adult lives – and knowledge is the strongest antidote to ignorance. Rather than abandoning the Aboriginal deep time story, schools should be encouraging students to engage with it.

    Learning on Country

    One of the strengths of the current NSW history syllabus is the requirement for students to undertake a “site study” in Years 8 and 9. Currently, NSW is the only jurisdiction that has made this mandatory.

    Site studies are an excellent opportunity for students to learn on Country. Many teachers organise excursions to Aboriginal cultural sites where students can directly engage with local Traditional Owners and Elders.

    New South Wales is brimming with sites of cultural significance to Aboriginal people. The map below highlightssome of these, ranging from megafauna sites, to extensive fish traps, to the enigmatic rock art galleries and ceremonial engravings (petroglyphs).

    How students will miss out

    The Ngambaa people and archaeologists from the University of Queensland are currently investigating one of the largest midden complexes in Australia. This complex, located at Clybucca and Stuart’s Point on the north coast, spans some 14 kilometres and dates back to around 9,000 years ago.

    Middens, or “living sites”, are accumulations of shell that were built over time through thousands of discarded seafood meals. Since the shells help reduce the acidic chemistry of the soil, animal bones and plant remains are more likely to be preserved in middens.

    For instance, the Clybucca-Stuarts Point midden complex contains remains from seals and dugongs. Both of these animals were once part of the local ecosystem, but no longer are.

    The middens also extend back to before the arrival of dingoes, so studying them could help us understand how biodiversity changed once dingoes replaced thylacines and Tasmanian devils on the mainland.

    Local school students, especially Aboriginal students, will be actively participating in this cutting-edge research alongside the Ngambaa people, archaeologists and teachers. Among other things, the students will learn how the Ngambaa people sustainably managed land and sea Country over thousand of years during periods of dramatic environmental change.

    But innovative programs like this will no longer be as relevant if Australia’s deep time history is removed from the NSW syllabus.

    An opportunity for leadership

    The study of First Nations archaeological sites, history and cultures tells us a broader human story of continuity and adaptability over deep time. Indigenising the curriculum – wherein Aboriginal knowledge is braided with historical and archaeological inquiry – is a powerful way to reconcile different approaches to understanding the past.

    The NSW Education Standards Authority’s proposed changes risk sending young people the message that Australia’s “history” before colonisation is not an important part of the country’s historic narrative.

    But there is still time to show leadership – by reversing the decisions and by connecting teachers and students to powerful stories from Australia’s deep time past.

    Michael Westaway receives funding from the Australian Research Council and Humanities and Social Science at the University of Queensland .

    Bruce Pascoe is the author of the texts mentioned in this article, Dark Emu and Young Dark Emu: A Truer History. He also has positions on the boards of Black Duck Foods, the Twofold Aboriginal Corporation and First Languages Australia.

    Louise Zarmati receives research funding from the ARC Centre of Excellence of Australian Biodiversity and Heritage.

    – ref. NSW will remove 65,000 years of Aboriginal history from its syllabus. It’s a step backwards for education – https://theconversation.com/nsw-will-remove-65-000-years-of-aboriginal-history-from-its-syllabus-its-a-step-backwards-for-education-240111

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: New video shows sharks making an easy meal of spiky sea urchins, shedding light on an undersea mystery

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeremy Day, PhD researcher, University of Newcastle

    Author provided

    Long-spined sea urchins have emerged as an environmental issue off Australia’s far south coast. Native to temperate waters around New South Wales, the urchins have expanded their range south as oceans warm. There, they devour kelp and invertebrates, leaving barren habitats in their wake.

    Lobsters are widely accepted as sea urchins’ key predator. In efforts to control urchin numbers, scientists have been researching this predator-prey relationship. And the latest research by my colleagues and I, released today, delivered an unexpected result.

    We set up several cameras outside a lobster den and placed sea urchins in it. We filmed at night for almost a month. When we checked the footage, most sea urchins had been eaten – not by lobsters, but by sharks.

    This suggests sharks have been overlooked as predators of sea urchins in NSW. Importantly, sharks seem to very easily consume these large, spiky creatures – sometimes in just a few gulps! Our findings suggest the diversity of predators eating large sea urchins is broader than we thought – and that could prove to be good news for protecting our kelp forests.

    A puzzling picture

    The waters off Australia’s south-east are warming at almost four times the global average. This has allowed long-spined sea urchins (Centrostephanus rodgersii) to extend their range from NSW into waters off Victoria and Tasmania.

    Sea urchins feed on kelp and in their march south, have reduced kelp cover. This has added to pressure on kelp forests, which face many threats.

    Scientists have been looking for ways to combat the spread of sea urchins. Ensuring healthy populations of predators is one suggested solution.

    Overseas research on different urchin species has focused on predators such as lobsters and large fish. It found kelp cover can be improved by protecting or reinstating these predators.

    Sea urchins feed on kelp.
    Nathan Knott

    In NSW, eastern rock lobsters are thought to be important urchin predators. The species has been over-fished in the past but stocks have significantly bounced back in recent years.

    But despite this, no meaningful reduction in urchin populations, or increase in kelp growth, has been observed in NSW.

    Why not? Could it be that lobsters are not eating urchins in great numbers after all? Certainly, there is little empirical evidence on how often predators eat urchins in the wild.

    What’s more, recent research in NSW suggested the influence of lobsters on urchin populations was low, while fish could be more important.

    Our project aimed to investigate the situation further.

    Eastern rock lobsters are thought to be major urchin predators.
    Flickr/Richard Ling, CC BY

    What we did

    We tied 100 urchins to blocks outside a lobster den off in Wollongong for 25 nights. This tethering meant the urchins were easily available to predators and stayed within view of our cameras.

    Then we set multiple cameras to remotely turn on at sunset and turn after sunrise each day, to capture nocturnal feeding. We used a red-filtered light to film the experiments because invertebrates don’t like the white light spectrum.

    We expected our cameras would capture lobsters eating the urchins. But in fact, the lobsters showed little interest in the urchins and ate just 4% of them. They were often filmed walking straight past urchins in search of other food.

    Sharks, however, were very interested in the urchins. Both crested horn sharks (Heterodontus galeatus) and Port Jackson sharks (H. portusjacksonii) entered the den and ate 45% of the urchins.

    As the footage below shows, sharks readily handled very large urchins (wider then 12 centimetres) with no hesitation.

    Until now, it was thought few or no predators could handle urchins of this size. Larger urchins have longer spines, thicker shells and attach more strongly to the seafloor, making them harder to eat.

    But the sharks attacked urchins from their spiny side, showing little regard for their sharp defences. This approach differs from other predators, such as lobsters and wrasses, which often turn urchins over and attack them methodically from their more vulnerable underside.

    In fact, some sharks were so eager to eat urchins, they started feeding before the cameras turned on at sunset. This meant we had to film by hand.

    Footage captured by the researchers showing crested horn sharks eating sea urchins. Horn sharks generally do not pose a threat to humans.

    A complex food web

    Our experiment showed the effect of lobsters on urchins in the wild is less than previously thought.
    This may explain why efforts to encourage lobster numbers have not helped control urchin numbers.

    We also revealed a little-considered urchin predator: sharks.

    Lobsters are capable but hesitant predators, whereas sharks seem eager to eat urchins. And crested horn sharks are an abundant, hardy species that is not actively fished.

    When interpreting these findings, however, a few caveats must be noted.

    First, sharks (and lobsters) are not the only animals to prey on urchins. Other predators include bony fishes, and more are likely to be identified in future.

    Second, other factors can control urchin numbers, such as storm damage and the influx of fresh water.

    And finally, it is unsurprising that we found a key predator when we intentionally searched for it by laying out food. Tethering urchins creates an artificial environment. We don’t know if the results would be replicated in the wild.

    And even though we now know some shark species eat sea urchins, we don’t yet know if they can control urchins numbers.

    But our research does confirm predators capable of handling large urchins may be more widespread than previously thought.

    Jeremy Day received funding from University of Newcastle, Ecological Society of Australia, Royal Zoological Soceity of New South Wales and Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

    – ref. New video shows sharks making an easy meal of spiky sea urchins, shedding light on an undersea mystery – https://theconversation.com/new-video-shows-sharks-making-an-easy-meal-of-spiky-sea-urchins-shedding-light-on-an-undersea-mystery-240205

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Iran’s strike on Israel was retaliatory – but it was also about saving face and restoring deterrence

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Aaron Pilkington, Fellow at the Center for Middle East Studies, University of Denver

    Israel and Iran are at war. In truth, the two sides have been fighting for decades, but the conflict has played out largely under the cover of covert and clandestine operations.

    The recent actions of both sides in this once “shadow war” have changed the nature of the conflict. It is not clear that de-escalation is on the horizon.

    On Oct 1, 2024, Iran launched a massive, direct attack against Israel notionally in retribution for Israel’s dual assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s chief, Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.

    It was the second such barrage in six months.

    By many accounts, the previous Iranian attack against Israel on April 13 – which consisted of over 300 ballistic and cruise missiles and attack drones – caused very little damage to Israel. Perhaps because of this, and likely in part due to U.S. encouragement of restraint, Israel’s immediate military response then – an airstrike against a single advanced Iranian air defense system in the Isfahan province – was somewhat measured.

    Many onlookers saw the calibrated exchange in April as a possible indication that both sides would prefer to de-escalate rather than engage in ongoing open warfare.

    But further Israeli military operations since then have prompted escalatory Iranian military responses, forcing the conflict back out of the shadows.

    With Hamas’ capabilities and leadership degraded in the Gaza Strip, Israel’s military leaders announced in June that they were “ready to face” Hezbollah – the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group whose persistent rocket attacks against northern Israel have caused tens of thousands to evacuate the area.

    Israel pivots north

    Israel’s pivot from Gaza toward Lebanon coincided with the July 31, 2024, assassination of Hamas’ political bureau chairman, Haniyeh, during his stay in Tehran. The purported Israeli operation was seen as an affront to Iran’s sovereignty. It was also an embarrassment that highlighted the vulnerability and permeability of Iran’s internal security apparatus.

    Even though Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei vowed a “harsh response” against Israel, by September Iran had taken no action.

    Tehran’s inaction caused many Middle East analysts to question if the Iranian response would ever materialize – and by extension, what that would mean for Khamenei’s commitment to his proxy forces.

    If indeed Iran’s leadership opted for restraint following the assassination of Hamas’ top political leader, the same could not be said for its reaction to Israel’s multiphase operation against Hezbollah in mid-September.

    Israel began with a clandestine operation to sow chaos and confusion in Hezbollah’s command and control through the means of sabotaged explosive communications devices. Israel then carried out airstrikes eliminating Hezbollah’s top leaders including Nasrallah. The Israeli military then launched what the country’s leaders describe as a “limited [ground] operation” into southern Lebanon to remove Hezbollah positions along the northern border.

    Tehran’s Oct 1. attack in response against Israel was, according to many Middle East experts and indeed Iranian military leaders, primarily a retaliation for the two high-profile assassinations against Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.

    These were certainly key factors. But as an expert on Iran’s defense strategy, I argue that Iran’s leaders also felt compelled to attack Israel for three equally, if not more important, reasons: to slow Israel’s advance in Lebanon, to save face, and to restore deterrence.

    Challenging Israel’s advance

    Iran hopes to slow and potentially reverse Israel’s successes against Hezbollah, especially as Israel embarks on ground operations into southern Lebanon. Of course, Israeli ground troops must now deal with what is perhaps the world’s most capable guerrilla fighting force – one that performed quite successfully during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

    Nevertheless, Israel’s ability to achieve a tactical surprise and eliminate Hezbollah’s top leaders – even in the midst of an ongoing localized war, and even after Israel’s leaders announced their intention to engage Hezbollah – reveals a far superior Israeli strategy and operational planning and execution capability than that of Hezbollah.

    And that presents a huge blow to what is seen in Iran as the Islamic Republic’s crown jewel within its “Axis of Resistance.”

    In this respect, the Oct. 1 retaliatory strike by Iran can be seen as an attempt to afford Hezbollah time to appoint replacement leadership, regroup and organize against Israel’s ground invasion.

    The brutal art of save face?

    It also serves to help Iran save face, especially in how it’s seen by other parts of its external proxy network.

    Orchestrated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, or IRGC – Tehran’s primary arm for coordinating external operations – Iranian money, training, guidance and ideological support enabled and encouraged the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack against Israel – even, as it has claimed, Iran had no prior warning of the assault.

    Since then, Hamas fighters have received almost no real-time support from Tehran. This lack of support has no doubt contributed to Hamas being successfully degraded as a threat by Israel, with many of its members either dead or in hiding and unable to mount a coherent offensive campaign, leading Israel’s military leaders to claim the group has been effectively defeated.

    Unsurprisingly, Iran is glad to enable Palestinians to fight Tehran’s enemies and absorb the human costs of war, because this arrangement primarily benefits the Islamic Republic.

    Once the fighting in Gaza started, the IRGC was nowhere to be found.

    Rockets fired from Iran are seen over Jerusalem on Oct. 1, 2024.
    Wisam Hashlamoun/Anadolu via Getty Images

    Now that Israel has shifted its attention to Lebanon and scored several initial tactical successes against Hezbollah, Iran cannot afford to stand back and watch for two main reasons. First, a year of fighting in Gaza has demonstrated that Israel is willing to do whatever it takes to eliminate threats along its borders – including a willingness to withstand international political pressure or operate within Iran’s borders.

    And second, Iran’s proxy groups elsewhere are watching to see if Tehran will continue supporting them – or will abandon them, as it seemingly has done with Hamas.

    Reclaiming deterrence

    Perhaps above all, in Tehran’s calculus over how to respond is Iran’s need to restore a deterrence.

    The two defining features of Iran’s interrelated external, or “forward defense,” and deterrence strategies is its regional network of militant proxies and its long-range weapons arsenal, which includes a large number of advanced ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and attack-capable drones.

    These Iranian defense strategies seek to dissuade enemies from attacking Iran proper in two ways: first, by threatening Israel and other regional U.S. allies with punishment via proxy militia or long-range weapon attacks; and second, by offering scapegoat targets against which Iran’s enemies can express their rage. In effect, Iran’s proxy forces act as proxy targets that pay the costs for Iran’s hostile policies.

    Israel’s degradation of Hamas and ongoing operations against Hezbollah threaten to undermine Iran’s ability to deter attacks against the homeland. For the Islamic Republic’s leaders, this is an unacceptable risk.

    Who plays the next move?

    These interweaving imperatives likely prompted Iran’s leaders to launch a second massive, direct missile attack on Oct. 1 against Israel. How effective the strike will be in achieving any of Tehran’s aims is unknown.

    The Islamic Republic claimed that as many as 90% of the ballistic missiles reached their intended targets, while Israel and the United States characterize the attack as having been “defeated and ineffective,” despite unverified cellphone videos showing several ballistic missiles detonating after reaching land in Israel.

    What is almost certain, however, is that this will not be the last move in the conflict. Israel is unlikely to halt its Lebanon operation until it achieves its border security objectives. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed retaliation against Iran for its latest retaliatory attack.

    IRGC leaders met this warning with a counterthreat of their own that if Israel responds to the Oct. 1 attack militarily, Iran will again respond with unspecified “crushing and destructive attacks.”

    Rhetorically, neither side is backing down; militarily this may be true, too. The nature and scope of Israel’s next move will dictate how the war with Iran develops – but make no mistake, it is a war.

    Dr. Aaron Pilkington is a U.S. Air Force analyst of Middle East affairs and a non-resident fellow at the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver’s Korbel School of International Studies. Dr. Pilkington will soon join the Military & Strategic Studies department at the U.S. Air Force Academy. The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Department of Defense, Department of the Air Force, the United States Air Force Academy, or any other organizational affiliation.

    – ref. Iran’s strike on Israel was retaliatory – but it was also about saving face and restoring deterrence – https://theconversation.com/irans-strike-on-israel-was-retaliatory-but-it-was-also-about-saving-face-and-restoring-deterrence-240302

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: There’s a renewed push to scrap junior rates of pay for young adults. Do we need to rethink what’s fair?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kerry Brown, Professor of Employment and Industry, School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University

    NT_Studio/Shutterstock

    Should young people be paid less than their older counterparts, even if they’re working the same job? Whether you think it’s fair or not, it’s been standard practice in many industries for a long time.

    The argument is that young people are not fully “work-ready” and require more intensive employer support to develop the right skills for their job.

    But change could be on the horizon. Major unions and some politicians are pushing for reform – arguing “youth wages” should be scrapped entirely for adults.

    Why? They say the need to be fairly paid for equal work effort, as well as economic considerations such as the high cost of living and ongoing housing crisis, mean paying young adults less based on their age is out of step with modern Australia.

    So is there a problem with our current system, and if so, how might we go about fixing it?

    What are youth wages?

    In Australia, a youth wage or junior pay rate is paid as an increasing percentage of an award’s corresponding full adult wage until an employee reaches the age of 21.

    This isn’t the case in every industry – some awards require all adults to be paid the same minimum rates.

    But for those not covered by a specific award, as well as those working in industries including those covered by the General Retail Industry Award, Fast Food Industry Award and Pharmacy Industry Award, employees younger than 21 are not paid the full rate.

    Why pay less?

    Conventionally, junior rates have been thought of as a “training wage”. Younger people are typically less experienced, so as they gain more skills on the job over time, they are paid a higher hourly rate.

    But there are a few key problems with this approach, which may not be relevant given many employers’ expectations for their workers to start “job-ready” and a lack of consistency in the training they provide.

    Training up and developing skills is an important part of building any career. But it isn’t always provided by their employers.

    Many young adults undergo training prior to starting work and at their own expense.
    Best smile studio/Shutterstock

    Many young workers train themselves in job-related technical education and short courses, often at their own expense and prior to starting work.

    Employers reap the benefit of this pre-employment training and so a “wage discount” for younger workers may be irrelevant in this instance.

    None of this is to say employers aren’t offering something important when they take on young employees.

    Younger workers coming into employment relatively early have access to more than just a paid job, but also become part of a team, with responsibilities and job requirements that support “bigger-picture” life skills.

    Those who employ them may be contributing to their broader social and cultural engagement, something that could be considered part of a more inclusive training package. Whether that justifies a significant wage discount is less clear.



    Read more:
    Why real wages in Australia have fallen while they’ve risen in most other OECD countries

    Calls for a rethink

    There are growing calls for a rethink on the way we compensate young people for their efforts.

    An application by the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees’ Association – the union for retail, fast food and warehousing workers – seeks to remove junior rates for adult employees on three key awards. This action will be heard by the Fair Work Commission next year.

    Sally McManus, Secretary of the Australian Council of Trade Unions, said the peak union body will lobby the government to legislate such changes if this application fails. The Greens have added their support.

    That doesn’t have to mean abolishing youth wages altogether. But 21 years of age is a high threshold, especially given we get the right to major adult responsibilities such as voting and driving by 18.

    A transition strategy could consider gradually lowering this threshold, or increasing the wage percentages over time.

    Lessons from New Zealand

    We wouldn’t be the first to make such a bold change if we did.

    Our geographically and culturally close neighbour, New Zealand, has already removed the “youth wage” – replacing it with a “first job” rate and a training wage set at 80% of the full award rate in 2008.

    A common argument against abolishing youth wages – and increasing the minimum wage in general – is that it will stop businesses hiring young people and thus increase unemployment.

    But a 2021 study that examined the effects of New Zealand’s experience with increasing minimum wages – including this change – found little discernible difference in employment outcomes for young workers.

    The authors did note, however, that New Zealand’s economic downturn post-2008 had a marked effect on the employment of young workers more generally.

    New Zealand has already taken major steps in reforming junior pay rates.
    Stephan Roeger/Shutterstock

    What’s fair?

    It’s easy to see how we arrived at the case for paying younger adults less. But younger workers should not bear the burden of intergenerational inequity by “losing out” on wages in the early part of their working life.

    The debate we see now echoes the discussions about equal pay for equal work value run in the 1960s and ‘70s in relation to women’s unequal pay.

    We were warned that paying women the same as men would cause huge economic dislocation. Such a catastrophe simply did not come to pass.

    Kerry Brown is a member of the National Tertiary Education Union.

    – ref. There’s a renewed push to scrap junior rates of pay for young adults. Do we need to rethink what’s fair? – https://theconversation.com/theres-a-renewed-push-to-scrap-junior-rates-of-pay-for-young-adults-do-we-need-to-rethink-whats-fair-240548

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: OECD comparisons reveal an unflattering picture of inequality in NZ – could that change?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Colin Campbell-Hunt, Emeritus Professor in Business, University of Otago

    Getty Images

    Recent research showing the richest New Zealanders pay less tax than their counterparts in nine similar OECD countries raises, yet again, serious questions about wealth, equality and fairness.

    How unequal is the distribution of income in New Zealand? How do we compare with some of the countries we might benchmark against? And, if we don’t like what we see, can we change it?

    The metric most widely used by economists to measure inequality in incomes is called the Gini coefficient (named after the Italian statistician Corrado Gini who developed it).

    It brings together income data across all households, typically divided into groupings of 10% or 20% of the total. When there is no inequality of incomes between groups, Gini equals zero. When the top group captures all income, Gini equals 1.

    Measuring inequality

    The graph below shows Gini coefficients, before taxes and welfare payments (known as “transfers”), for all 37 countries in the OECD in 2019 (before the COVID pandemic disrupted household surveys). Ginis are ranked left to right, from least to most unequal.

    The Gini before taxes and transfers is a measure of the inequality produced by the structures of a country’s economy: the way value chains operate, the markets for products and services, the scarcity of certain skills, rates of unionisation, and so on.

    This gives us a measure of structural inequalities in a country. Governments, however, use taxes and transfers to shift income between households. They take taxes from some and boost incomes of the more disadvantaged.

    Ginis of incomes after taxes and transfers give us a measure of how well members of a society can support similar standards of living. They are shown in the following graph, again from least to most unequal. These give us a measure of social inequalities.

    Focusing just on social inequality, it is no surprise Scandinavian countries are among the least unequal, as well as Canada and Ireland. Neither is it surprising the UK and US approach the highest levels of social inequality in the OECD.

    Inequalities in Australia and New Zealand lie between these, but further from the Scandinavians and closer to the Anglo-Americans.

    Social inequality in NZ

    When we look at the difference between structural and social inequalities, we can see the extent to which taxes and transfers – government redistribution of income – reduce inequality.

    As we can see, New Zealand’s structural inequality, shaped by the economic reforms of the mid-1980s, is middling by comparison to other OECD countries.

    But New Zealand’s social inequality lies near the bottom third of OECD measures. A halving of top income tax rates in the mid-1980s and the rollback of the welfare state in the 1990s (after then finance minister Ruth Richardson’s 1991 “mother of all budgets”) significantly contributed to this.

    The downward columns in the following graph show the effect of government redistributive measures, ranked from most to least active. The result of these government redistributions in New Zealand is weaker even than in the laissez-faire economies of the United Kingdom and United States.

    Where does NZ sit?

    How do New Zealand’s inequalities compare with countries we might choose to benchmark against?

    Below, the Scandinavian countries famous for their egalitarian social systems are shown in orange. In green are countries that tolerate slightly higher social inequality: Sweden, Canada and Ireland.

    And the UK and US – exemplars of free-market capitalism that were the models for New Zealand’s reforms of the mid-1980s – are highlighted in grey.

    Reducing inequality

    How hard would it be to change? Could New Zealand, for example, reduce its level of social inequality to match Canada? Absolutely, yes.

    Other OECD data show Canada significantly cut its inequalities between 2010 and 2019. The country moved from a position identical to Luxembourg (haven for Europe’s wealthy) to be roughly level with Sweden.

    To match Canada’s level now, New Zealand would need to reduce structural inequalities further, or redistribute about as much as Norway and Denmark do. It can be done, in other words.

    Indeed, Finland shows government redistributions can transform some of the worst levels of structural inequality to produce outcomes comparable to other Scandinavian countries.

    New Zealand can aspire to goals for social equality matching those in the upper half of OECD countries. Beyond revisions to taxation and transfers, inequalities in health and education would also need to come down to reduce the social and economic costs of poverty and disadvantage that should bring shame to us all.

    The author acknowledges the contribution of data provided by Max Rashbrooke.

    Colin Campbell-Hunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. OECD comparisons reveal an unflattering picture of inequality in NZ – could that change? – https://theconversation.com/oecd-comparisons-reveal-an-unflattering-picture-of-inequality-in-nz-could-that-change-239306

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –