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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: A geomagnetic storm has hit Earth – a space scientist explains what causes them

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Amoré Elsje Nel, Applied Geomagnetic Researcher, South African National Space Agency

    Geomagnetic storms bring vibrant colours to life in some parts of the world. Christopher Mark Juhn/Anadolu via Getty Images

    A geomagnetic storm lit up the night sky in parts of the US during the first weekend in October. South Africa’s National Space Agency (Sansa) told reporters that the storm had originated from a solar flare “that erupted from sunspot 3842 on October 3”. It said this was the strongest Earth-facing solar flare recorded by Sansa in the past seven years and that the eruption briefly affected high-frequency radio communications, “resulting in a total radio blackout over the African region which lasted for up to 20 minutes”.

    What is a geomagnetic storm? The Conversation Africa asked Sansa’s Amoré Nel, who researches geomagnetics, to explain.

    What is a geomagnetic storm and how common are they?

    A geomagnetic storm is a disturbance in Earth’s magnetic field caused by solar activity. There’s a reaction called nuclear fusion that occurs continuously deep within the Sun’s core. This generates massive amounts of energy. Some of the energy is released as light (sunlight), some as radiation (solar flares), and some as charged particles.

    The Sun also continuously emits a stream of charged particles known as the solar wind. Occasionally, the Sun releases larger bursts of energy, called coronal mass ejections. It sends clouds of these charged particles, or plasma, hurtling through space. I like to explain it to children this way: the Sun sometimes drinks a soda too fast and then burps. This “burp” is the cloud of plasma which then travels through space. These emissions don’t always hit us. But when they do, they collide with Earth’s magnetic field, disrupt it, and lead to a geomagnetic storm.

    Earth’s magnetic field is an invisible force that surrounds our planet, acting like a giant magnet with a north and south pole. It helps protect us from harmful solar radiation by deflecting charged particles from the Sun.

    The solar flare from 3842 emitted both X-flares (radiation) and a coronal mass ejection. X-flares are radiation; they travel at almost the speed of light and reach Earth within minutes. That’s what caused the brief communications disruption Sansa mentioned on 3 October. But the coronal mass ejection takes much longer to reach us. We’d predicted it would do so over the past weekend but in fact it only reached us on the morning of 8 October.

    Geomagnetic storms occur fairly often. Minor ones happen multiple times per year. The severity of a storm depends on how strong the solar event was that caused it. Larger, more intense storms are less common but can happen every few years. Solar events are closely tied to the Sun’s 11-year solar cycle, which has periods of high and low activity. During the peak of the cycle, called solar maximum, more sunspots and solar flares occur, increasing the likelihood of solar storms.

    We are now heading towards the peak of Solar Cycle 25, which will be in July 2025. Solar maxima usually last between two and three years.

    Are these storms dangerous? What damage can they cause?

    Geomagnetic storms are not typically harmful to humans directly, but they can pose risks to modern technology and infrastructure. One of the most notable dangers is to power grids. Powerful storms can induce electric currents in power lines, potentially overloading transformers and causing blackouts, as happened in Quebec, Canada, in 1989.



    Read more:
    Solar storm knocks out farmers’ high-tech tractors – an electrical engineer explains how a larger storm could take down the power grid and the internet

    Satellites in space are also vulnerable. A strong storm can damage electronics onboard, disrupt communication signals, and shorten the lifespan of the satellites themselves.

    In aviation, geomagnetic storms can disrupt radio communication and GPS signals, which are vital for aircraft navigation. This is especially important for flights that pass near the polar regions, where the effects of geomagnetic storms are more pronounced. Astronauts and spacecraft are also at risk – the extra radiation can be dangerous for equipment and human health.

    Are there any upsides to this phenomenon?

    Auroras are a visually stunning aspect of geomagnetic storms. These colourful displays in the night sky occur when charged particles from the Sun get captured in Earth’s magnetic field lines, and funnel down towards the poles. Here they interact with Earth’s atmosphere, releasing energy that produces shimmering lights.

    The northern lights are seen in the sky above Alta, Norway.
    Romano/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    Auroras can be seen at both the north and south pole, aptly named the northern and southern lights. If storms are big enough, it’s possible to see them in regions much further away from the poles. This happened in South Africa on 11 May 2024.

    Studying geomagnetic storms provides valuable insights into space weather. By understanding how the Sun’s activity affects Earth, scientists can better predict future storms and work to protect the technologies we rely on. The study of geomagnetic storms also contributes to our understanding of the Sun and space in general.

    Can monitoring the storms mitigate the risks?

    Geomagnetic storms are monitored using various instruments on Earth and in space. On Earth, magnetometers measure changes in the magnetic field, allowing scientists to track disturbances as they happen. Sansa operates a dense network of Global Navigation Satellite System receivers in Africa, and magnetometer stations in various parts of southern Africa, for this reason. The agency is currently setting up a magnetometer station in Ethiopia, too. This will improve our ability to monitor geomagnetic storms.

    In space, satellites equipped with sensors monitor the Sun’s activity and detect solar flares or coronal mass ejections before they reach Earth. This data feeds into prediction models used in space weather centres across the globe.

    Once a storm is detected, agencies like Sansa issue alerts and forecasts. These warnings help industries such as power grid operators, satellite companies and aviation authorities to prepare for a storm.

    For example, power companies can temporarily shut down or reconfigure parts of the grid to avoid overloading during a storm. Satellite operators can place their spacecraft into safer operating modes, such as switching off electronic components, and airlines can reroute flights away from high-risk areas.

    Monitoring alone can’t prevent all the damage caused by geomagnetic storms. But it can greatly reduce the risks. Thanks to early warning systems we can protect crucial infrastructure and minimise the effect these storms have on our daily lives.

    Amoré Elsje Nel works for the South African National Space Agency. She receives a Thuthuka Grant (TTK210406592410) from the National Research Foundation.

    – ref. A geomagnetic storm has hit Earth – a space scientist explains what causes them – https://theconversation.com/a-geomagnetic-storm-has-hit-earth-a-space-scientist-explains-what-causes-them-240737

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: From mass deportations to huge tariff hikes, here’s what Trump’s economic program would do the US and to Australia

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

    Prashantrajsingh/Shutterstock

    It’s time to take Donald Trump seriously. Betting markets say it’s as likely as not he will be elected US president four weeks from today.

    And unlike in 2016 when his program wasn’t clearly defined, he has set out plainly what he intends to do. Which means it’s possible to model the consequences.

    The three Trump promises with the greatest economic impact are

    • the deportation of millions of US residents

    • steep restrictions on imports, especially from China

    • presidential influence over interest rates.

    The best way to model the consequences is with an established model of the kind used by the International Monetary Fund and central banks around the world rather than one set up for the purpose that could be seen as designed to favour or not favour Trump.

    The Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics has just done that, noting that during Trump’s first term as president he “by and large” did what he said he would do.

    It finds

    ironically, despite his ‘make the foreigners pay rhetoric’, Trump’s package of policies does more damage to the US economy than to any other in the world.

    No other country in the world would be hurt by Trump’s program as much as the US – not even China – although several US allies would suffer, including Australia, which would be the fourth-worst hit by the most extreme version of what Trump is proposing.

    Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    Mass deportations

    Trump has repeatedly promised the “largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” targeting up to 20 million unauthorised immigrants, including about 8.3 million thought to be in the workforce.

    He says his model is Operation Wetback – a 1956 Eisenhower administration program that used military-style tactics to deport 1.3 million Mexicans.

    The institute says Eisenhower’s success makes it easy to believe Trump could remove 1.3 million immigrant workers. It has modelled two scenarios: removing 1.3 million and 8.3 million, both over two years in 2025 and 2026.

    Both slash employment, including the employment of non-immigrants, both push up inflation, which eventually is brought under control, and both make the US a less attractive place to invest, which benefits much of the rest of the world.

    The institute says the low and high scenarios differ “only by the degree of damage inflicted on people, households, firms, and the overall economy”.

    Huge tariff hikes

    Trump wants to increase every tariff on goods imported to the US by 10 percentage points, including where there is at present no tariff. And he wants at least a 60% tariff on imports from China. The institute has modelled both, with and without retaliatory tariffs from China and the rest of the world.

    It finds, unsurprisingly, that extra tariffs push up the price of US imports and the prices of US-produced goods that compete with imports. Many are used as inputs in manufacturing, which means US manufacturing suffers (which is probably not what Trump had in mind).

    Fewer imports mean less demand for foreign exchange within the US, which means a higher US dollar which makes US exports less competitive. The US economy is weaker as a result, although China’s is weaker still and Australia’s is weakened as much as the US given its role in providing resources to China.

    Nobbling the Fed

    Trump has raised the prospect of more presidential influence over interest rates, saying he thinks he has “a better instinct than, in many cases” the board of US Federal Reserve. This could be achieved by requiring the president to be consulted on rate decisions or by appointing a compliant chair.

    However it’s done, the institute’s “conservative” assumption based on what happens in developing countries with less central bank independence is that it will push inflation two percentage points higher.

    The modelled result is capital flight. While the US economy is initially stronger than it would have been because of the Fed’s willingness to tolerate higher inflation, after a few years it is weaker and every other economy is stronger.

    When all the measures are combined, under the extreme scenarios the US economy is 6.7% weaker than it would have been by 2035 and Australia’s is 0.2% weaker. Under the more modest scenarios, the US economy is 1.6% weaker and Australia’s is 0.06% weaker.

    Why not examine Harris?

    Despite a history of non-partisanship, the Peterson Institute is prepared for criticism. It points out that the economic model it used is regarded as the best in the world for scenario planning and is Australian, built by Warwick McKibbin of the Australian National University.

    And it says it has modelled the Trump policies rather than the Harris policies because only Trump’s represent a departure from business as usual.

    As the Institute’s president Adam Posen put it in Washington last month, the Harris campaign has said it will not impose across-the-board tariffs, will not engage in mass deportations and will not interfere with the independence of the US Federal Reserve.

    The Trump campaign has indicated it will do all three.

    It’s entirely possible that in office Trump wouldn’t do everything he proposed while campaigning, and it’s entirely possible that he would change course if what was doing damaged the US in the way the modelling suggests.

    But there’s something to be said for taking people at their word, at least to get an idea of what we could be in store for after a knife-edge election.

    Peter Martin is Economics Editor of The Conversation.

    – ref. From mass deportations to huge tariff hikes, here’s what Trump’s economic program would do the US and to Australia – https://theconversation.com/from-mass-deportations-to-huge-tariff-hikes-heres-what-trumps-economic-program-would-do-the-us-and-to-australia-240650

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: From mass deportations to huge tariff hikes, here’s what Trump’s economic program would do to the US and Australia

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

    Prashantrajsingh/Shutterstock

    It’s time to take Donald Trump seriously. Betting markets say it’s as likely as not he will be elected US president four weeks from today.

    And unlike in 2016 when his program wasn’t clearly defined, he has set out plainly what he intends to do. Which means it’s possible to model the consequences.

    The three Trump promises with the greatest economic impact are

    • the deportation of millions of US residents

    • steep restrictions on imports, especially from China

    • presidential influence over interest rates.

    The best way to model the consequences is with an established model of the kind used by the International Monetary Fund and central banks around the world rather than one set up for the purpose that could be seen as designed to favour or not favour Trump.

    The Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics has just done that, noting that during Trump’s first term as president he “by and large” did what he said he would do.

    It finds

    ironically, despite his ‘make the foreigners pay rhetoric’, Trump’s package of policies does more damage to the US economy than to any other in the world.

    No other country in the world would be hurt by Trump’s program as much as the US – not even China – although several US allies would suffer, including Australia, which would be the fourth-worst hit by the most extreme version of what Trump is proposing.

    Peterson Institute for International Economics.

    Mass deportations

    Trump has repeatedly promised the “largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” targeting up to 20 million unauthorised immigrants, including about 8.3 million thought to be in the workforce.

    He says his model is Operation Wetback – a 1956 Eisenhower administration program that used military-style tactics to deport 1.3 million Mexicans.

    The institute says Eisenhower’s success makes it easy to believe Trump could remove 1.3 million immigrant workers. It has modelled two scenarios: removing 1.3 million and 8.3 million, both over two years in 2025 and 2026.

    Both slash employment, including the employment of non-immigrants, both push up inflation, which eventually is brought under control, and both make the US a less attractive place to invest, which benefits much of the rest of the world.

    The institute says the low and high scenarios differ “only by the degree of damage inflicted on people, households, firms, and the overall economy”.

    Huge tariff hikes

    Trump wants to increase every tariff on goods imported to the US by 10 percentage points, including where there is at present no tariff. And he wants at least a 60% tariff on imports from China. The institute has modelled both, with and without retaliatory tariffs from China and the rest of the world.

    It finds, unsurprisingly, that extra tariffs push up the price of US imports and the prices of US-produced goods that compete with imports. Many are used as inputs in manufacturing, which means US manufacturing suffers (which is probably not what Trump had in mind).

    Fewer imports mean less demand for foreign exchange within the US, which means a higher US dollar which makes US exports less competitive. The US economy is weaker as a result, although China’s is weaker still and Australia’s is weakened as much as the US given its role in providing resources to China.

    Nobbling the Fed

    Trump has raised the prospect of more presidential influence over interest rates, saying he thinks he has “a better instinct than, in many cases” the board of US Federal Reserve. This could be achieved by requiring the president to be consulted on rate decisions or by appointing a compliant chair.

    However it’s done, the institute’s “conservative” assumption based on what happens in developing countries with less central bank independence is that it will push inflation two percentage points higher.

    The modelled result is capital flight. While the US economy is initially stronger than it would have been because of the Fed’s willingness to tolerate higher inflation, after a few years it is weaker and every other economy is stronger.

    When all the measures are combined, under the extreme scenarios the US economy is 6.7% weaker than it would have been by 2035 and Australia’s is 0.2% weaker. Under the more modest scenarios, the US economy is 1.6% weaker and Australia’s is 0.06% weaker.

    Why not examine Harris?

    Despite a history of non-partisanship, the Peterson Institute is prepared for criticism. It points out that the economic model it used is regarded as the best in the world for scenario planning and is Australian, built by Warwick McKibbin of the Australian National University.

    And it says it has modelled the Trump policies rather than the Harris policies because only Trump’s represent a departure from business as usual.

    As the Institute’s president Adam Posen put it in Washington last month, the Harris campaign has said it will not impose across-the-board tariffs, will not engage in mass deportations and will not interfere with the independence of the US Federal Reserve.

    The Trump campaign has indicated it will do all three.

    It’s entirely possible that in office Trump wouldn’t do everything he proposed while campaigning, and it’s entirely possible that he would change course if what was doing damaged the US in the way the modelling suggests.

    But there’s something to be said for taking people at their word, at least to get an idea of what we could be in store for after a knife-edge election.

    Peter Martin is Economics Editor of The Conversation.

    – ref. From mass deportations to huge tariff hikes, here’s what Trump’s economic program would do to the US and Australia – https://theconversation.com/from-mass-deportations-to-huge-tariff-hikes-heres-what-trumps-economic-program-would-do-to-the-us-and-australia-240650

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump and Harris are sharply divided on science, but share common ground on US technology policy

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kenneth Evans, Scholar in Science and Technology Policy, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University

    Science topics don’t always come up during presidential debates – but they did on Sept. 10, 2024. Mario Tama via Getty Images

    For the first time in American history, quantum computing was mentioned by a candidate during a presidential debate, on Sept. 10, 2024. After Vice President Kamala Harris brought up quantum technology, she and former President Donald Trump went on to have a heated back-and-forth about American chipmaking and China’s rise in semiconductor manufacturing. Science and technology policy usually takes a back seat to issues such as immigration, the economy and health care during election season.

    What’s changed for 2024?

    From COVID-19 to climate change, ChatGPT to, yes, quantum computers, science-related issues are on the minds of American policymakers and voters alike. The federal government spends nearly US$200 billion each year on scientific research and development to address these challenges and many others. Presidents and Congress, however, rarely agree on how – and how much – money should be spent on science.

    With the increasing public focus on global competitiveness, the climate crisis and artificial intelligence, a closer look at Trump’s and Harris’ records on science and technology policy could provide a hint about how they’d approach these topics if elected this fall.

    Two distinct visions for science funding

    If politics can be described as “who gets what and when,” U.S. science and technology policy can be assessed through the annual budget process for R&D. By this measure, the differences between the Trump and Biden-Harris administrations couldn’t be starker.

    In his first budget request to Congress, in 2017, Trump spurned decades of precedent, proposing historic cuts across nearly every federal science agency. In particular, Trump targeted climate-related programs at the Department of Energy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency.

    Trump’s fiscal policy took a page from Reagan-era conservative orthodoxy, prioritizing military spending over social programs, including R&D. Unlike Reagan, however, Trump also took aim at basic research funding, an area with long-standing bipartisan support in Congress. His three subsequent budget proposals were no different: across-the-board reductions to federal research programs, while pushing for increases to defense technology development and demonstration projects.

    Congress rebuked nearly all of Trump’s requests. Instead, it passed some of the largest increases to federal R&D programs in U.S. history, even before accounting for emergency spending packages funded as part of the government’s pandemic response.

    In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration made science and innovation a centerpiece of its early policy agenda – with budgets to match. Leveraging the slim Democratic majority during the 117th Congress, Biden and Harris shepherded three landmark bills into law: the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act. These laws contain significant R&D provisions focused on environmental projects (IIJA), clean energy (IRA) and American semiconductor manufacturing (CHIPS).

    CHIPS set up programs within the National Science Foundation and the Department of Commerce to create regional technology hubs in support of American manufacturing. The act also set ambitious funding targets for federal science agencies, especially at NSF, calling for its budget to be doubled from $9 billion to over $18 billion over the course of five years.

    Despite its initial push for R&D, the Biden-Harris administration’s final two budget proposals offered far less to science. Years of deficit spending and a new Republican majority in the House cast a cloud of budget austerity over Congress. Instead of moving toward doubling NSF’s budget, the agency suffered an 8% decrease in fiscal year 2024 – its biggest cut in over three decades. For FY2025, which runs from Oct. 1, 2024, through Sept. 30, 2025, Biden and Harris requested a meager 3% increase for NSF, billions of dollars short of CHIPS-enacted spending levels.

    An emerging consensus on China

    On technology policy, Biden and Harris share more with Trump than they let on.

    Their approach to competing with China on tech follows Trump’s lead: They’ve expanded tariffs on Chinese goods and severely limited China’s access to American-made computer chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

    Biden and Harris have also ramped up research security efforts intended to protect U.S. ideas and innovation from China. Trump launched the China Initiative as an attempt to stop the Chinese government from stealing American research. The Biden-Harris administration ended the program in 2022, but pieces of it remain in place. Scientific collaborations between the United States and China continue to decline, to the detriment of American scientific leadership.

    Semiconductor manufacturing is a key to many technologies; by extension, where it happens can be a security issue.
    Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    The Biden-Harris administration has also drawn from Trump-era policy to strengthen America’s leadership in “industries of the future.” The term, coined by Trump’s then-chief science adviser Kelvin Droegemeier, refers to five emerging technology areas: AI, quantum science, advanced manufacturing, advanced communications and biotechnology. This language has been parroted by the Biden-Harris administration as part of its focus on American manufacturing and throughout Harris’ campaign, including during the debate.

    In short, both candidates align with the emerging Washington bipartisan consensus on China: innovation policy at home, strategic decoupling abroad.

    Science advice not always a welcome resource

    Trump’s dismissal of and at times outright contempt for scientific consensus is well documented. From “Sharpiegate,” when he mapped his own projected path for Hurricane Dorian, to pulling out of the Paris climate agreement, World Health Organization and the Iran nuclear deal, Trump has demonstrated an unwillingness to accept any advice, let alone from scientists.

    Indeed, Trump took over two years to hire Droegemeier as director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, or OSTP, doubling the previous record for the length of time a president has gone without a scientific adviser. This absence was no doubt reflected in Trump’s short-on-science budget requests to Congress, especially during the beginning of his administration.

    On the other hand, the Biden-Harris administration has promoted science and innovation as a core part of its broader economic policy agenda. It elevated the role of OSTP: Biden is the first president to name his science adviser – a position currently held by Arati Prabhakar – as a member of his Cabinet.

    By law, the president is required to appoint an OSTP director. But it is up to the president to decide how and when to use their advice. If the new White House wants the U.S. to remain a global leader in R&D, the science adviser will need to continue to fight for it.

    Kenneth Evans receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the American Institute of Physics, and the Clinton Foundation. He is affiliated with Rice University and Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

    – ref. Trump and Harris are sharply divided on science, but share common ground on US technology policy – https://theconversation.com/trump-and-harris-are-sharply-divided-on-science-but-share-common-ground-on-us-technology-policy-239053

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How foreign operations are manipulating social media to influence your views

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Filippo Menczer, Professor of Informatics and Computer Science, Indiana University

    Russians, Chinese, Iranians – even Israelis – are trying to affect what you believe. Sean Gladwell/Moment via Getty Images

    Foreign influence campaigns, or information operations, have been widespread in the run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Influence campaigns are large-scale efforts to shift public opinion, push false narratives or change behaviors among a target population. Russia, China, Iran, Israel and other nations have run these campaigns by exploiting social bots, influencers, media companies and generative AI.

    At the Indiana University Observatory on Social Media, my colleagues and I study influence campaigns and design technical solutions – algorithms – to detect and counter them. State-of-the-art methods developed in our center use several indicators of this type of online activity, which researchers call inauthentic coordinated behavior. We identify clusters of social media accounts that post in a synchronized fashion, amplify the same groups of users, share identical sets of links, images or hashtags, or perform suspiciously similar sequences of actions.

    We have uncovered many examples of coordinated inauthentic behavior. For example, we found accounts that flood the network with tens or hundreds of thousands of posts in a single day. The same campaign can post a message with one account and then have other accounts that its organizers also control “like” and “unlike” it hundreds of times in a short time span. Once the campaign achieves its objective, all these messages can be deleted to evade detection. Using these tricks, foreign governments and their agents can manipulate social media algorithms that determine what is trending and what is engaging to decide what users see in their feeds.

    Adversaries such as Russia, China and Iran aren’t the only foreign governments manipulating social media to influence U.S. politics.

    Generative AI

    One technique increasingly being used is creating and managing armies of fake accounts with generative artificial intelligence. We analyzed 1,420 fake Twitter – now X – accounts that used AI-generated faces for their profile pictures. These accounts were used to spread scams, disseminate spam and amplify coordinated messages, among other activities.

    We estimate that at least 10,000 accounts like these were active daily on the platform, and that was before X CEO Elon Musk dramatically cut the platform’s trust and safety teams. We also identified a network of 1,140 bots that used ChatGPT to generate humanlike content to promote fake news websites and cryptocurrency scams.

    In addition to posting machine-generated content, harmful comments and stolen images, these bots engaged with each other and with humans through replies and retweets. Current state-of-the-art large language model content detectors are unable to distinguish between AI-enabled social bots and human accounts in the wild.

    Model misbehavior

    The consequences of such operations are difficult to evaluate due to the challenges posed by collecting data and carrying out ethical experiments that would influence online communities. Therefore it is unclear, for example, whether online influence campaigns can sway election outcomes. Yet, it is vital to understand society’s vulnerability to different manipulation tactics.

    In a recent paper, we introduced a social media model called SimSoM that simulates how information spreads through the social network. The model has the key ingredients of platforms such as Instagram, X, Threads, Bluesky and Mastodon: an empirical follower network, a feed algorithm, sharing and resharing mechanisms, and metrics for content quality, appeal and engagement.

    SimSoM allows researchers to explore scenarios in which the network is manipulated by malicious agents who control inauthentic accounts. These bad actors aim to spread low-quality information, such as disinformation, conspiracy theories, malware or other harmful messages. We can estimate the effects of adversarial manipulation tactics by measuring the quality of information that targeted users are exposed to in the network.

    We simulated scenarios to evaluate the effect of three manipulation tactics. First, infiltration: having fake accounts create believable interactions with human users in a target community, getting those users to follow them. Second, deception: having the fake accounts post engaging content, likely to be reshared by the target users. Bots can do this by, for example, leveraging emotional responses and political alignment. Third, flooding: posting high volumes of content.

    Our model shows that infiltration is the most effective tactic, reducing the average quality of content in the system by more than 50%. Such harm can be further compounded by flooding the network with low-quality yet appealing content, thus reducing quality by 70%.

    Curbing coordinated manipulation

    We have observed all these tactics in the wild. Of particular concern is that generative AI models can make it much easier and cheaper for malicious agents to create and manage believable accounts. Further, they can use generative AI to interact nonstop with humans and create and post harmful but engaging content on a wide scale. All these capabilities are being used to infiltrate social media users’ networks and flood their feeds with deceptive posts.

    These insights suggest that social media platforms should engage in more – not less – content moderation to identify and hinder manipulation campaigns and thereby increase their users’ resilience to the campaigns.

    The platforms can do this by making it more difficult for malicious agents to create fake accounts and to post automatically. They can also challenge accounts that post at very high rates to prove that they are human. They can add friction in combination with educational efforts, such as nudging users to reshare accurate information. And they can educate users about their vulnerability to deceptive AI-generated content.

    Open-source AI models and data make it possible for malicious agents to build their own generative AI tools. Regulation should therefore target AI content dissemination via social media platforms rather then AI content generation. For instance, before a large number of people can be exposed to some content, a platform could require its creator to prove its accuracy or provenance.

    These types of content moderation would protect, rather than censor, free speech in the modern public squares. The right of free speech is not a right of exposure, and since people’s attention is limited, influence operations can be, in effect, a form of censorship by making authentic voices and opinions less visible.

    Filippo Menczer receives funding from the Knight Foundation, Sloan Foundation, NSF, DoD, and the Swiss National Science Foundation.

    – ref. How foreign operations are manipulating social media to influence your views – https://theconversation.com/how-foreign-operations-are-manipulating-social-media-to-influence-your-views-240089

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why wildfires started by human activities can be more destructive and harder to contain

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Virginia Iglesias, Interim Earth Lab Director, University of Colorado Boulder

    Heavy equipment working near dry brush sparked a destructive wildfire near Riverside, Calif., in September 2024. AP Photo/Eric Thayer

    Wildfires are becoming increasingly destructive across the U.S., as the country is seeing in 2024. Firefighters were battling large blazes in several states from California to North Dakota in early October 2024, including fires burning near homes and communities.

    Research shows wildfires are up to four times larger and three times more frequent than they were in the 1980s and ‘90s, with some consuming hundreds of thousands of acres in a single blaze.

    Lightning strikes are one cause, but the majority of wildfires that threaten communities are sparked by human activities.

    Metal from cars or mowers dragging on the ground can spark fires. So can power lines touching trees. Officials confirmed on Oct. 2 that a broken power line started the deadly 2023 Maui fire that destroyed the town of Lahaina, Hawaii. California’s largest fire in 2024 started when a man pushed a burning car into a ravine near Chico. The fire destroyed more than 700 homes and buildings.

    Although the number of fires in 2024 has not been unusually high, the acreage burned has far surpassed the 10-year average, displacing thousands of people, destroying homes and straining firefighting resources.

    What makes these wildfires so destructive and difficult to contain?

    The answer lies in a mix of changing climate, the legacy of past land-management practices, and current human activities that are reshaping fire behavior and increasing the risk they pose.

    Fire’s perfect storm

    Wildfires rely on three key elements to spread: conducive weather, dry fuel and an ignition source. Each of these factors has undergone pronounced changes in recent decades. While climate change sets the stage for larger and more intense fires, humans are actively fanning the flames.

    Climate and weather

    Extreme temperatures play a dangerous role in wildfires. Heat dries out vegetation, making it more flammable. Under these conditions, wildfires ignite more easily, spread faster and burn with greater intensity. In the western U.S., aridity attributed to climate change has doubled the amount of forestland that has burned since 1984.

    Compounding the problem is the rapid rise in nighttime temperatures, now increasing faster than daytime temperatures. Nights, which used to offer a reprieve with cooler conditions and higher humidity, do so less often, allowing fires to continue raging without pause.

    Ranchers watch as firefighting planes battle the Park Fire, which was fueled by extremely hot, dry conditions in Butte County, Calif.
    AP Photo/Noah Berger

    Fuel

    Fire is a natural process that has shaped ecosystems for over 420 million years. Indigenous people historically used controlled burns to manage landscapes and reduce fuel buildup. However, a century of fire suppression has allowed vast areas to accumulate dense fuels, priming them for larger and more intense wildfires.

    Invasive species, such as certain grasses, have exacerbated the issue by creating continuous fuel beds that accelerate fire spread, often doubling or tripling fire activity.

    Additionally, human development in fire-prone regions, especially in the wildland-urban interface, where neighborhoods intermingle with forest and grassland vegetation, has introduced new, highly flammable fuels. Buildings, vehicles and infrastructure often ignite easily and burn hotter and faster than natural vegetation. These changes have significantly altered fuel patterns, creating conditions conducive to more severe and harder-to-control wildfires.

    Ignition

    Lightning can ignite wildfires, but humans are responsible for an increasing share. From unattended campfires to arson or sparks from power lines, over 84% of the wildfires affecting communities are human-ignited.

    Human activities have not only tripled the length of the fire season, but they also have resulted in fires that pose a higher risk to people.

    More than 600 homes and buildings burned in the Park Fire, one of California’s largest fires on record. Officials say the fire was started by a man pushing a burning car into a ravine near Chico.
    AP Photo/Eugene Garcia

    Lightning-started fires often coincide with storms that carry rain or higher humidity, which slows fires’ spread. Human-started fires, however, typically ignite under more extreme conditions – hotter temperatures, lower humidity and stronger winds. This leads to greater flame heights, faster spread in the critical early days before crews can respond, and more severe ecosystem effects, such as killing more trees and degrading the soil.

    Human-ignited fires often occur in or near populated areas, where flammable structures and vegetation create even more hazardous conditions. As urban development expands into wildlands, the probability of human-started fires and the property potentially exposed to fire increase, creating a feedback loop of escalating wildfire risk.

    2024 fire season’s whiplash weather

    The record-breaking summer heat in 2024 intensified fire hazards, with vegetation rapidly drying out and leaving landscapes parched in many areas. In addition, a phenomenon known as whiplash weather, marked by unusually wet winters and springs followed by extreme summer heat, has been especially pronounced in Southern California.

    A wet spring fostered vegetation growth, which then dried out under scorching summer temperatures, turning into highly combustible fuel. Severe heat waves, along with the associated lack of nighttime cooling, created conditions where fires not only spread faster, but were also more difficult to contain.

    This cycle has fueled some of the biggest fires of the 2024 season, several of which were started by humans. Atmospheric instability during some of these fires also led to the formation of pyrocumulonimbus clouds – massive, fire-fueled thunderheads that can generate their own weather, including lightning and tornado-like winds that drive flames even further.

    As these factors converge, the potential for increasingly severe wildfires looms ever larger. Severe fires also release large amounts of carbon from trees, vegetation and soils into the atmosphere, increasing greenhouse gas emissions and exacerbating climate change, contributing to more extreme fire seasons.

    Virginia Iglesias receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Why wildfires started by human activities can be more destructive and harder to contain – https://theconversation.com/why-wildfires-started-by-human-activities-can-be-more-destructive-and-harder-to-contain-239058

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Is it COVID-19? Flu? At-home rapid tests could help you and your doctor decide on a treatment plan

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Julie Sullivan, Chief Operating Officer of RADx Tech, Emory University

    Over-the-counter multiplex tests for more than one illness may soon come to a pharmacy near you. Paco Burgada/iStock via Getty Images

    A scratchy, sore throat, a relentless fever, a pounding head and a nasty cough – these symptoms all scream upper respiratory illness. But which one?

    Many of the viruses that cause upper respiratory infections such as influenza A or B and the virus that causes COVID-19 all employ similar tactics. They target the same areas in your body – primarily the upper and lower airways – and this shared battleground triggers a similar response from your immune system. Overlapping symptoms – fever, cough, fatigue, aches and pains – make it difficult to determine what may be the underlying cause.

    Now, at-home rapid tests can simultaneously determine whether someone has COVID-19 or the flu. Thanks in part to the National Institutes of Health’s Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics, or RADx, program, the Food and Drug Administration has provided emergency use authorization for seven at-home rapid tests that can distinguish between COVID-19, influenza A and influenza B.

    Our team in Atlanta – composed of biomedical engineers, clinicians and researchers at Emory University, Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta and Georgia Institute of Technology – is part of the RADx Test Verification Core. We closely collaborate with other institutions and agencies to determine whether and how well COVID-19 and influenza diagnostics work, effectively testing the tests. Our center has worked with almost every COVID and flu diagnostic on the market, and our data helped inform the instructions you might see in many of the home test kits on the market.

    While no test is perfect, to now be able to test for certain viruses at home when symptoms begin can help patients and their doctors come up with appropriate care plans sooner.

    A new era of at-home tests

    Traditionally, identifying the virus causing upper respiratory illness symptoms required going to a clinic or hospital for a trained medical professional to collect a nasopharyngeal sample. This involves inserting a long, fiber-tipped swab that looks like a skinny Q-tip into one of your nostrils and all the way to the back of your nose and throat to collect virus-containing secretions. The sample is then typically sent to a lab for analysis, which could take hours to days for results.

    The COVID-19 pandemic made over-the-counter tests for respiratory illnesses commonplace.
    DuKai/Moment via Getty Images

    Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, the possibility of using over-the-counter tests to diagnose respiratory illnesses at home became a reality. These tests used a much gentler and less invasive nasal swab and could also be done by anyone, anytime and in their own home. However, these tests were designed to diagnose only COVID-19 and could not distinguish between other types of illnesses.

    Since then, researchers have developed over-the-counter multiplex tests that can screen for more than one respiratory infection at once. In 2023, Pfizer’s Lucira test became the first at-home diagnostic test for both COVID-19 and influenza to gain emergency use authorization.

    What are multiplex rapid tests?

    There are two primary forms of at-home COVID-19 and COVID-19/flu combination tests: molecular tests such as PCR that detect genetic material from the virus, and antigen tests – commonly referred to as rapid tests – that detect proteins called antigens from the virus.

    The majority of over-the-counter COVID-19 and COVID-19/flu tests on the market are antigen tests. They detect the presence of antigens in your nasal secretions that act as a biological signature for a specific virus. If viral antigens are present, that means you’re likely infected.

    Respiratory illnesses such as flu, COVID-19 and RSV can be hard to tell apart.

    To detect these antigens, rapid tests have paper-like strips coated with specially engineered antibodies that function like a molecular Velcro, sticking only to a specific antigen. Scientists design and manufacture specialized strips to recognize specific viral antigens, like those belonging to influenza A, influenza B or the virus that causes COVID-19.

    The antibodies for these viral targets are placed on the strip, and when someone’s nasal sample has viral proteins that are applied to the test strip, a line will appear for that virus in particular.

    Advancing rapid antigen tests

    Like all technologies, rapid antigen tests have limitations.

    Compared with lab-based PCR tests that can detect the presence of small amounts of pathogen by amplifying them, antigen tests are typically less sensitive than PCR and could miss an infection in some cases.

    All at-home COVID-19 and COVID-19/flu antigen tests are authorized for repeat use. This means if someone is experiencing symptoms – or has been exposed to someone with COVID-19 but is not experiencing symptoms – and has a negative result for their first test, they should retest 48 hours later.

    Another limitation to rapid antigen tests is that currently they are designed to test only for COVID-19, influenza A and influenza B. Currently available over-the-counter tests aren’t able to detect illnesses from pathogens that look like these viruses and cause similar symptoms, such as adenovirus or strep.

    Because multiplex texts can detect several different viruses, they can also produce findings that are more complex to interpret than tests for single viruses. This may increase the risk of a patient incorrectly interpreting their results, misreading one infection for another.

    Researchers are actively developing even more sophisticated tests that are more sensitive and can simultaneously screen for a wider range of viruses or even bacterial infections. Scientists are also examining the potential of using saliva samples in tests for bacterial or viral infections.

    Additionally, scientists are exploring integrating multiplex tests with smartphones for rapid at-home diagnosis and reporting to health care providers. This may increase the accessibility of these tests for people with vision impairment, low dexterity or other challenges with conducting and interpreting at-home tests.

    Faster and more accurate diagnoses lead to more targeted and effective treatment plans, potentially reducing unnecessary antibiotic use and improving patient outcomes. The ability to rapidly identify and track outbreaks can also empower public health officials to better mitigate the spread of infectious diseases.

    Research conducted by ACME POCT received funding by the National Institutes of Health.

    Wilbur Lam receives funding from the National Institutes of Health.

    – ref. Is it COVID-19? Flu? At-home rapid tests could help you and your doctor decide on a treatment plan – https://theconversation.com/is-it-covid-19-flu-at-home-rapid-tests-could-help-you-and-your-doctor-decide-on-a-treatment-plan-231253

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Government to put pressure on opposition with legislation to ensure NBN stays in public hands

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The Albanese government on Wednesday will introduce legislation to ensure the NBN remains in government ownership.

    The move is designed to set up a test for the Coalition, putting pressure on the opposition ahead of the election to declare whether it would try to privatise the NBN.

    The government said in a statement from Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher and Communications Minister Michelle Rowland: “The Coalition rushed to declare the NBN ‘complete’ so they could put it on the block for sale – selling out Australian consumers and regional communities.

    “The Albanese government won’t let that happen. This legislation will ensure the NBN is owned by who it belongs to – the Australian people.”

    The upgrades the government had undertaken “are already making a real difference in the lives of Australians through faster, more reliable internet access. Keeping the NBN in public hands will lock in affordable and accessible high speed internet for all Australians for generations to come.”

    Albanese said:“The Coalition made a mess of the NBN – my government is getting on with the job of fixing it and making sure it stays in public hands, where it belongs.”

    Rowland said: “Australians don’t trust the Coalition not to flog off the NBN just like they did with Telstra, resulting in higher prices and poorer services, especially in the regions.”

    Downgraded

    The Rudd Labor government announced what was to be a predominantly fibre-to-the-home wholesale network in 2009, promising it would cost $43 billion and later be privatised to claw back the expense.

    In 2010 Communications Minister Stephen Conroy said Labor “remained firmly committed to selling its stake in NBN Co after the network was fully built and operational, subject to market conditions and security considerations”.

    By 2020 the government was estimated to have spent $51 billion on a scaled-down version of the project completed using a mix of technologies.

    In June that year a review by the Parliamentary Budget Office put its fair value at $8.7 billion.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Government to put pressure on opposition with legislation to ensure NBN stays in public hands – https://theconversation.com/government-to-put-pressure-on-opposition-with-legislation-to-ensure-nbn-stays-in-public-hands-240807

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Physics Nobel awarded to neural network pioneers who laid foundations for AI

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aaron J. Snoswell, Research Fellow in AI Accountability, Queensland University of Technology

    The 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics has been awarded to scientists John Hopfield and Geoffrey Hinton “for foundational discoveries and inventions that enable machine learning with artificial neural networks”.

    Inspired by ideas from physics and biology, Hopfield and Hinton developed computer systems that can memorise and learn from patterns in data. Despite never directly collaborating, they built on each other’s work to develop the foundations of the current boom in machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI).

    What are neural networks? (And what do they have to do with physics?)

    Artificial neural networks are behind much of the AI technology we use today.

    In the same way your brain has neuronal cells linked by synapses, artificial neural networks have digital neurons connected in various configurations. Each individual neuron doesn’t do much. Instead, the magic lies in the pattern and strength of the connections between them.

    Neurons in an artificial neural network are “activated” by input signals. These activations cascade from one neuron to the next in ways that can transform and process the input information. As a result, the network can carry out computational tasks such as classification, prediction and making decisions.


    Johan Jarnestad / The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

    Most of the history of machine learning has been about finding ever more sophisticated ways to form and update these connections between artificial neurons.

    While the foundational idea of linking together systems of nodes to store and process information came from biology, the mathematics used to form and update these links came from physics.

    Networks that can remember

    John Hopfield (born 1933) is a US theoretical physicist who made important contributions over his career in the field of biological physics. However, the Nobel Physics prize was for his work developing Hopfield networks in 1982.

    Hopfield networks were one of the earliest kinds of artificial neural networks. Inspired by principles from neurobiology and molecular physics, these systems demonstrated for the first time how a computer could use a “network” of nodes to remember and recall information.

    The networks Hopfield developed could memorise data (such as a collection of black and white images). These images could be “recalled” by association when the network is prompted with a similar image.

    Although of limited practical use, Hopfield networks demonstrated that this type of ANN could store and retrieve data in new ways. They laid the foundation for later work by Hinton.


    Johan Jarnestad / The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

    Machines that can learn

    Geoff Hinton (born 1947), sometimes called one of the “godfathers of AI”, is a British-Canadian computer scientist who has made a number of important contributions to the field. In 2018, along with Yoshua Bengio and Yann LeCun, he was awarded the Turing Award (the highest honour in computer science) for his efforts to advance machine learning generally, and specifically a branch of it called deep learning.

    The Nobel Prize in Physics, however, is specifically for his work with Terrence Sejnowski and other colleagues in 1984, developing Boltzmann machines.

    These are an extension of the Hopfield network that demonstrated the idea of machine learning – a system that lets a computer learn not from a programmer, but from examples of data. Drawing from ideas in the energy dynamics of statistical physics, Hinton showed how this early generative computer model could learn to store data over time by being shown examples of things to remember.


    Johan Jarnestad / The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

    The Boltzmann machine, like the Hopfield network before it, did not have immediate practical applications. However, a modified form (called the restricted Boltzmann machine) was useful in some applied problems.

    More important was the conceptual breakthrough that an artificial neural network could learn from data. Hinton continued to develop this idea. He later published influential papers on backpropagation (the learning process used in modern machine learning systems) and convolutional neural networks (the main type of neural network used today for AI systems that work with image and video data).

    Why this prize, now?

    Hopfield networks and Boltzmann machines seem whimsical compared to today’s feats of AI. Hopfield’s network contained only 30 neurons (he tried to make one with 100 nodes, but it was too much for the computing resources of the time), whereas modern systems such as ChatGPT can have millions. However, today’s Nobel prize underscores just how important these early contributions were to the field.

    While recent rapid progress in AI – familiar to most of us from generative AI systems such as ChatGPT – might seem like vindication for the early proponents of neural networks, Hinton at least has expressed concern. In 2023, after quitting a decade-long stint at Google’s AI branch, he said he was scared by the rate of development and joined the growing throng of voices calling for more proactive AI regulation.

    After receiving the Nobel prize, Hinton said AI will be “like the Industrial Revolution but instead of our physical capabilities, it’s going to exceed our intellectual capabilities”. He also said he still worries that the consequences of his work might be “systems that are more intelligent than us that might eventually take control”.

    Aaron J. Snoswell receives funding from OpenAI in 2024.

    – ref. Physics Nobel awarded to neural network pioneers who laid foundations for AI – https://theconversation.com/physics-nobel-awarded-to-neural-network-pioneers-who-laid-foundations-for-ai-240833

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: We’ve worked out a way of understanding how microbial communities shape life on Earth

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Miguel Lurgi, Associate Professor in Computational Ecology, Swansea University

    Microbial communities – vast ecosystems teeming with millions of different cells from different species – play a fundamental role in life on Earth, from producing oxygen to aiding digestion. Despite their importance, it has been a challenge for scientists to fully understand how these intricate communities form and function.

    But in a new study, my colleagues and I have developed a new mathematical framework aimed at explaining how microbial relationships emerge. By better understanding these communities, we could better protect and manage them, which could have profound implications for the health of our planet.

    Most of our understanding of microbiomes – the collections of thousands of microbes that inhabit different environments and organisms – has come from studies on the differences between them. Researchers often investigate the ecological and evolutionary factors that appear to shape these microbial communities.

    But it has been hard to determine whether these factors are actually causing the differences or are merely coincidental. This is why understanding the true drivers behind microbiome formation is so important. It helps us see why these communities exist and how they function.

    If, like me, you’ve ever marvelled at the plants and animals thriving in nature, you’ve seen ecological and evolutionary forces in action, just as Charles Darwin did during the 19th century. The same principles that govern these larger ecosystems also apply to the microbial world.

    So, for our research, my colleagues and I took a leaf out of Darwin’s book. We examined the ecological and evolutionary factors that could lead to the formation of such diverse microbiomes across many multicellular organisms. These included marine sponges, insects, humans and squid. What we found was striking. Despite the vast differences between species, the same basic rules apply to their microbiomes.

    For example, the ability of microbes to move between environments and their rapid rate of evolution are important factors in determining where they live, whether in a plant’s roots or an animal’s gut. There are, of course, exceptions. In giant and red pandas, for instance, diet plays a vital role in shaping gut microbes, while certain plants, like the small brassica Arabidopsis, control their root microbiomes through chemical defences.

    Once we had identified these mechanisms, the challenge was to organise our insights into a coherent framework. This is similar to what Darwin did with his theory of evolution by natural selection. And this is where maths came into play.

    Maths is essential to our understanding of the world around us, whether we’re talking about quantum mechanics or the complexities of life itself. By applying mathematical models, we could make sense of the complex factors that shape microbiomes.

    A new model for microbial ecosystems

    Our framework helps explain puzzling observations, such as why some marine sponges are teeming with microbes while others harbour just a few. Our study is unique because it allows us, for the first time, to think about these intricate symbiotic relationships holistically. It integrates both ecological and evolutionary ways of thinking. We hope our framework will form the basis of future studies investigating other microbial ecosystems.

    We’re currently expanding our research into marine sponges by exploring how the exchange of metabolic products (like vitamins and amino acids) between microbes, affects their community structure. The flexibility of our framework means it can be adapted to study different systems. It could help provide a deeper understanding of the interactions between microbes and their hosts.

    This type of quantitative approach is crucial as humans continue to affect our natural ecosystems. It could help us come up with solutions to those problems.

    Better understanding microbial communities could help us better protect the natural world.
    Damsea/Shutterstock

    For example, we recently demonstrated how microbiome studies can improve coral reef conservation efforts by examining the microbial networks that support coral settlement. By manipulating these networks, we could help to restore coral populations more effectively.

    Of course, challenges remain. For example, we still don’t understand microbial dormancy, which is a strategy some microbes adopt when under stress. They reduce their activity while at the same time increasing resistance to harsh external conditions. It’s a bit like bears hibernating to avoid the winter.

    In spite of issues like those, we’re optimistic that mathematical frameworks like ours will pave the way for future discoveries. It could advance our understanding of ecosystems both large and small – from microbiomes to large ecosystems involving plants and animals. This in turn could help to unlock the secrets of the natural world. That knowledge could be used to preserve biodiversity for future generations.

    Miguel Lurgi receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust under Research Project Grant # RPG-2022-114

    – ref. We’ve worked out a way of understanding how microbial communities shape life on Earth – https://theconversation.com/weve-worked-out-a-way-of-understanding-how-microbial-communities-shape-life-on-earth-238716

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: No time for a holiday? A ‘workation’ could be the answer

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mariachiara Barzotto, Senior Lecturer in Management Strategy and Organisation, University of Bath

    OOO in Stintino, Sardinia. Wpadington/Shutterstock

    Imagine this: you’re lounging on the beach, waves crashing in the background. A laptop sits on the table next to your iced coffee. In between meetings, you dip into the ocean or explore a hiking trail. This is the ideal vision of “workations” – a blend of work and vacation that is gaining popularity worldwide.

    A workation allows employees to work remotely from a holiday spot, and is part of a larger shift towards more flexible working arrangements, accelerated by the COVID pandemic and the rise of digital technology. Workations can last from a few days to several weeks.

    The concept can be appealing to both employees and companies, but there are challenges too. So, understanding its benefits and limitations is important for workers and employers alike.

    The most obvious benefit for employees is enjoying a new environment while staying productive. The typical work environment can become monotonous, potentially leading to burnout, decreased creativity and dissatisfaction.

    A workation offers an escape from this day-to-day grind, providing a refreshing change of scenery. It combines the mental break of a vacation with the flexibility of working remotely, allowing workers to balance their professional and personal lives and enhance their creativity. This flexibility may be particularly beneficial for those with high workloads or tight schedules, as they no longer need to sacrifice time away from work to relax.

    And companies can also reap rewards from approving workations among their staff. One of the most significant advantages is employee retention. Flexible work arrangements are among the top priorities for employees in today’s job market, helping to reduce staff turnover.

    Offering the option of a workation could also make a company more attractive to prospective employees. And workers who are free to work from inspiring locations may return to their tasks less stressed, and more motivated and engaged. Studies show that remote workers often demonstrate increased organisational commitment.

    Another advantage is the potential for cost savings. With more employees working remotely, companies may reduce their need for large office spaces or the expensive perks offered in corporate environments such as gyms, canteens and the staffing that goes with them.

    But there can be challenges too. The boundary between work and leisure can become blurred, and some employees may find it hard to disconnect from work – defeating the object of travelling to a different workplace. The allure of finishing “just one more task” can prevent employees from truly enjoying their surroundings, potentially leading to exhaustion instead of rejuvenation.

    Time zone differences can also be a challenge. Juggling meetings and collaborating with colleagues in different time zones can lead to irregular work hours that make it hard to maintain a healthy work-life balance.

    Distractions are another concern. Beaches, tourist attractions or even the simple novelty of being in a new place can make it difficult to focus on work tasks. Employees need to have a strong sense of discipline to remain productive.

    For companies, one of the primary challenges is ensuring that employees remain productive. Monitoring performance without feeling intrusive can be a tricky balance for managers to strike.

    When a wifi connection is not secure, make sure you have a VPN.
    Elizaveta Galitckaia/Shutterstock

    Security is another major concern. Remote work often involves accessing company networks and handling sensitive information. When employees work from unfamiliar locations – particularly in public spaces such as cafes – there may be increased risks related to cybersecurity. Ensuring that employees follow security protocols, use secure wifi and protect sensitive data is crucial.

    Lastly, workations might not be feasible for all roles. This can lead to disparities in who can take advantage of the opportunity, potentially leading to bad feeling among other staff.

    For the concept of workations to succeed, both employees and employers should set clear expectations, establish boundaries, and focus on maintaining productivity while allowing time for relaxation. But, if managed properly, they could become a staple of modern work culture. In a world where flexibility and wellbeing are increasingly valued, workations offer a unique opportunity to blend productivity with personal fulfilment, reshaping how we think about work and leisure.

    Nine tips for having a successful workation

    1. Choose the right destination

    Opt for a location with reliable internet access and where the time difference between colleagues and clients is manageable.

    2. Set clear boundaries

    Establish dividing lines between your work and vacation time, and communicate these boundaries with your employer and colleagues.

    3. Ensure you have the right tech set-up

    Bring all the necessary equipment, including noise-cancelling headphones. Double-check that you have remote access to all necessary material before leaving.

    4. Plan for cybersecurity

    Use a secure virtual private network (VPN) to protect company data, and follow your company’s cybersecurity policies to the letter.

    5. Understand your company’s remote work policy

    Read up on things like flexibility in terms of location, time zones, working hours and refunds for co-working spaces or tech tools.

    6. Set realistic expectations

    Don’t expect your workation to feel like a full vacation. Plan your leisure activities around your work schedule. Be prepared to work longer or odd hours if your company operates in a different time zone.

    7. Consider the local infrastructure

    Research amenities such as medical services, food delivery and transport. These might be important if you stay in a more remote or unfamiliar area. Have a contingency plan for health emergencies and check visa requirements.

    8. Prepare for flexibility

    Be ready for unexpected issues like slow internet or disruptions due to local events. Back-up plans, such as access to a co-working space or alternative accommodation, can save you from unnecessary stress.

    9. Stay organised

    Keep a work schedule and a checklist of tasks to ensure that you remain as productive as you are in your regular work environment.

    Mariachiara Barzotto does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. No time for a holiday? A ‘workation’ could be the answer – https://theconversation.com/no-time-for-a-holiday-a-workation-could-be-the-answer-240485

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can Kemi Badenoch claim to have ‘become working class’ while working in McDonald’s – and why would she want to?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michael Rees, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, Nottingham Trent University

    Conservative MP Kemi Badenoch recently caused controversy by claiming that while she was born to a middle-class family, she “became working class” when working in McDonald’s to earn money while she was in college. In fairness to Badenoch, having a diversity of experience is an admirable attribute for an MP – something you wouldn’t associate with someone like recently deposed Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg for example.

    Badenoch, who was born in the UK but spent the first part of her life in Nigeria before returning as a teenager, said her time at the fast food chain helped her understand the life of “single mothers” struggling to make ends meet – insight that might have made her object to the policies enacted by her government that made life harder for the working classes. She said of the job:

    There’s a humility there as well. You had to wash toilets, there were no special cleaners coming in. You had to wash toilets, you had to flip burgers, you had to handle money.

    Badenoch’s assertion – during her bid to become leader of the Conservative party – raises several interesting questions, not least whether you can “become working class”. Part of the issue is that class is increasingly hard to define in 2024.

    Is class subjective and something that we feel (as Badenoch’s claim suggests) or is it something objective that we can measure? This is a question that has been troubling sociologists – and others – for years.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

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    In social sciences, the most widely used measure of social class is the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) national statistics socioeconomic classification (NS-SEC). It is also the measure used by the UK government, most notably to measure social mobility – the movement of people between classes.

    The NS-SEC defines class by placing individuals in one of eight different classes according to their occupation. The scales runs from one (for higher managerial and professional positions) to eight (long-term unemployed).

    The classes are further simplified into three categories of professional/managerial (1 and 2), intermediate (3 and 4) and working class (5 to 7). It’s a hierarchy but it also shows that there is no easily identifiable dividing line between classes. Examples of those in professional/managerial would include directors of major companies, those teaching in higher education and journalists. Those in intermediate professions include travel agents, police officers (sergeant and below) and hotel managers. Those in the working class would include farm workers, building site labourers and workers in the service industry, such as in McDonald’s.

    Using the NS-SEC occupational coding tool, we can place both Badenoch’s parents (a GP and a professor) in social class 1. While she acknowledges that she is from a middle-class background, it is clear that both her parents occupy positions at the top of the social class hierarchy. As an MP, Badenoch herself is now also clearly social class 1. Her previous roles before entering politics, as a digital director for The Spectator and associate director at private bank Coutts return class 2 and 1 respectively. It is evident that Badenoch has lived, and continues to live, a very privileged, and middle-class, life. Given this, why would she claim to be working class?

    Does working in McDonald’s make you working class?
    Shutterstock/Jessica Girvan

    The first thing to note is that Badenoch is not unique in citing a working-class identity of some kind. The prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, is by now notorious for his frequent references to his father’s job as a toolmaker. Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, is also regularly photographed in pubs while drinking a pint and smoking a cigarette – something that sociologist Pierre Bourdieu would define as him attempting to evidence a working-class habitus, those tastes and behaviours that we typically associated with members of a particular social class.

    The rationale for this is that Britain is quite unique in its perspective on class. People will often claim they are working class, or have working-class roots. This would be unheard of in other parts of the world, where claiming to be middle class is aspirational.

    People in Britain will continue to claim they are working class even when evidence indicates that they are, and have been, middle class for several generations. This largely seems to be an inheritance of Britain’s history as an industrial country and the national obsession with “getting on” as well as a the country having a reputation for being particularly divided by social class. British people want to prove that they have been successful on merit rather than because of unearned privilege.

    Large fries and a majority in 2029?

    Britain’s changing political landscape is also an important part of the picture, as we look back at Badenoch’s McDonald’s career.

    Throughout the 20th century the dividing line between political parties was evident. The working classes typically voted for the Labour party and the middle classes typically voted for the Conservative party. The dividing lines between political parties have become more complicated in the 21st century, particularly in the post-Brexit years; notably evidenced by Boris Johnson’s 2019 election win and the crumbling of the red wall.

    This helps us understand why Badenoch would want to find a way to show that she is in touch with working-class people – and how she was able to do it, at least according to her own reasoning.

    Votes are always on a politician’s mind – and the increasing willingness of voters to switch allegiances means more votes than ever are up for grabs. The nebulous nature of class and the difficulty we have in defining it, becomes the vehicle for appealing for those votes.

    Badenoch’s claim that she became working class appears to be a longer-term strategy. She is looking ahead to the next election. Nevertheless, it seems difficult to argue that a short period working in McDonald’s made Badenoch working class. An adulthood of privilege also makes her claim rather insulting to those who, in her own words, struggle to make ends meet.

    Michael Rees does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can Kemi Badenoch claim to have ‘become working class’ while working in McDonald’s – and why would she want to? – https://theconversation.com/can-kemi-badenoch-claim-to-have-become-working-class-while-working-in-mcdonalds-and-why-would-she-want-to-240638

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Football acts like referees are the issue but they are just following the rules

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Daniel Hough, Professor of Politics, University of Sussex

    Football seems to have a problem with referees. Barely a weekend goes by without someone – a manager, a player, a pundit – making it abundantly clear that many of those who officiate are (apparently) not very good at their jobs.

    Arsenal’s manager, Mikel Arteta, for example, was furious with referee Michael Oliver for sending off Leandro Trossard during his side’s top-of-the-table clash with Manchester City on September 22. He described it as “really, really worrying” that referees were giving out cards for what Arteta seemed to regard as trivial offences.

    In this case it was Oliver’s decision to award a yellow card to Trossard after the Belgian booted the ball away to stop City taking a quick free kick. On top of a yellow card Trossard had already earned for a foul earlier in the game, the second offence, bringing a second yellow card, added up to a red card, meaning Trossard had to be sent off. Arteta’s criticism came even though it’s crystal clear that such offences merit exactly the punishments that were being meted out.

    The previous week, referee Anthony Taylor was the man in the firing line. He dished out 14 yellow cards (a premier league record) for a range of offences committed during the Chelsea v Bournemouth game on 14 September. Perhaps unsurprisingly, a whole host of self-appointed social media experts were quick to express their dissatisfaction with Taylor’s officiating. As a result, the Premier League is currently investigating a number of those social media posts for allegedly making threats against Taylor and his family.

    A significant part of the story in both of these cases concerns dissent and player petulance. Taylor, in particular, wasn’t standing for any of that, yellow-carding four players for inappropriately chatting back to the referee and one for excessive celebrations following a goal.

    The story, or so one of the narratives around poor referring would have it, is officials are being over-zealous. The players themselves seem to have no agency in this. It’s the referees that are the problem.

    If football is going to stop looking like a game primed for spoilt, stroppy schoolboys, then it’s precisely that narrative that needs to change. As I argue in a new book on integrity and football, there are three dimensions to cases like these.

    Firstly, players continue – again and again, and at all levels of the game – to think that verbally abusing the referee when they make decisions that the player doesn’t like is part and parcel of football. “Shithousery”, to use the contemporary parlance, is frequently seen as a virtue. It shouldn’t be. Players push and push the rules to their limits and yet when they are called out the instinct is often to whine and bleat about how unfair it all is.

    Football doesn’t have to look far to see how this can be done differently. Rugby referees have broadly similar sets of tools at their disposal and yet rugby players treat officials very differently. Diving about to win a free kick, for example, is not just frowned upon in rugby union, players trying it on are openly ridiculed. There is certainly bad behaviour in rugby, but you only very rarely see any players disrespecting the officials.

    One way of shifting the balance is by doing what Taylor did in the Chelsea v Bournemouth fixture, which is to pull players up immediately on what he saw as disrespectful behaviour. A few months of rugby-style refereeing and football will be much the better for it.

    Secondly, fans need to understand not just how difficult a referee’s job is but also to appreciate that regardless of whether referees get decisions right or wrong they, the fans, need to deal with it. Abusing officials and players is now a depressingly predictable part of football’s story.

    And, as the pleayers themselves will tell you, it’s not just the referees who are singled out for abuse. Research by Ofcom and the Alan Turing Institute in 2022 showed that, 34% of all tweets directed at Newcastle United defender Ciaran Clark in the first five months of the 2021-22 season were deemed “offensive” by OfCom. OfCom further claimed that an offensive tweet was sent to a premier league footballer once every four minutes across that same time period. Players getting things wrong is part and parcel of the game – verbally abusing them for it should not be.

    Finally, the administrators have a role to play in pushing stakeholders (fans, players, analysts) to show just a bit more spine. The FA needs to come out and explain that football will no longer stand for many of the antics that we currently see on the field. At the beginning of 2023-24 referees started giving yellow cards when players kicked the ball away to stop free kicks being taken. The result was that players for the most part simply stopped doing it. Sadly, no one appeared to tell Trossard.

    The FA has long argued that those within football need to show the game more respect. Yet the FA itself needs to show the backbone to stand up and defend, openly and forcefully, those who try to practically implement all these nice words.

    Whether Michael Oliver and Anthony Taylor thought they were fighting for the game’s integrity is largely irrelevant. They were just doing their job by interpreting the rules as they saw them. But there is something about the reaction of players, fans and indeed the FA that says that too many people still don’t really get it. Integrity matters. And it really is about time that they all start to take it seriously.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Daniel Hough does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Football acts like referees are the issue but they are just following the rules – https://theconversation.com/football-acts-like-referees-are-the-issue-but-they-are-just-following-the-rules-239962

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Marburg virus outbreak in Rwanda – what you need to know

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Manal Mohammed, Senior Lecturer, Medical Microbiology, University of Westminster

    Rwanda is in the midst of its first outbreak of Marburg virus – an often fatal disease with symptoms similar to Ebola. So far, 46 cases have been recorded and 12 deaths. The source of the outbreak is still not known.

    Seven hundred doses of an experimental vaccine against the virus have just been shipped from the US to Rwanda. The vaccine is currently being administered, largely to healthcare workers, who have made up the bulk of the victims so far.

    The roll out is part of a clinical trial, so it will be a while before the vaccine’s efficacy is known.

    Marburg virus is named after the town in Germany where it first emerged. In 1967, there were simultaneous outbreaks at laboratories in Marburg and Belgrade in Serbia (then part of Yugoslavia). The outbreak was caused by African green monkeys imported from Uganda for use in experiments. Seven people died.

    Since then, there have been several Marburg virus outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa, including in countries bordering Rwanda.

    Previous outbreaks have been reported in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and Tanzania. The most recent outbreaks were reported in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania between February and June 2023, where nine cases were reported and six deaths.

    Other countries that previously reported outbreaks include Angola, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya and South Africa. The outbreak in Angola in 2005 killed 300 people.

    Outbreaks typically occur when people come in contact with infected green monkeys, pigs or Egyptian rousette bats (a type of Old World fruit bat) – a common carrier of the virus. These bats are often found in mines and caves. Once the disease jumps from an infected animal to a human – so-called zoonotic spillover – it can spread from person to person through bodily fluids or by contact with contaminated surfaces, such as bedding.

    There are no antiviral drugs to treat patients. People infected with Marburg virus are kept hydrated and any blood loss is replaced through transfusion.

    The incubation period, which is the time between the exposure to Marburg virus and the start of symptoms, is five to ten days. Symptoms of Marburg virus disease can appear suddenly and include fever, muscle pains, diarrhoea and vomiting.

    The virus damages blood vessels and interferes with the ability of blood to clot, which can lead to uncontrolled bleeding from the nose, eyes, gums, rectum and, in women, the vagina. The disease has a very high “case fatality rate”. Between 24 and 88% of people infected with Marburg virus die – usually through extreme blood loss and shock.

    Marburg virus disease is not an airborne illness and is not thought to be contagious before symptoms appear. However, people can remain infectious for months after they have recovered, and pass the disease on through bodily fluids. Men are advised to wear a condom for a year after symptoms first appear.

    Looking for clues

    The Rwandan authorities are working to identify the source of the outbreak, how far it has spread and when the first case occurred.

    Although Marburg virus disease has been reported in seven of 30 districts in the east African nation, the readiness of unaffected districts is also being ensured to mitigate the spread and quickly identify any spillover.

    The World Health Organization (WHO) is working with Rwanda’s neighbouring countries, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, to review their readiness to respond to the outbreak.

    The WHO assesses the risk of the Marburg virus outbreak as “very high” at the national level and “high” at the regional level. However, at a global level, the risk remains low.

    Manal Mohammed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Marburg virus outbreak in Rwanda – what you need to know – https://theconversation.com/marburg-virus-outbreak-in-rwanda-what-you-need-to-know-240252

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Chagos islands: what the UK-Mauritius agreement means for displaced Chagossians

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Laura Jeffery, Professor of Anthropology of Migration, University of Edinburgh

    Coconut palm fronds are an integral part of Chagossian handicraft. Laura Jeffery, CC BY-NC-ND

    After years of negotiations and legal pressure, the UK and the Republic of Mauritius have agreed that Mauritius is sovereign over the Chagos Archipelago.

    The Chagos Archipelago is a group of seven coral atolls which comprise more than 60 islands in the Indian Ocean. In 1965, as part of negotiations leading to Mauritian independence, the UK government excised the Chagos Archipelago from colonial Mauritius. The UK kept the islands, which are in a globally strategic location, to make the island of Diego Garcia available to the US military for 50 years, later extended by 20 years.

    The islands have been the subject of a diplomatic dispute for decades, with Mauritius maintaining its sovereignty and arguing it was illegally forced to give the archipelago away in exchange for independence.



    Read more:
    UK hands Chagos Islands to Mauritius, marking the end of a longstanding sovereignty dispute

    Under the new political agreement, the UK will provide financial support to Mauritius, including a new trust fund for displaced Chagossians. Mauritius will be able to resettle the Chagos islands, other than Diego Garcia. This island will remain the site of a US-UK military facility for at least 99 years.

    This is a significant moment for decolonisation (albeit incomplete), and potentially a landmark moment for the displaced Chagossian community. Decades after being forcibly exiled, they may finally be able to resettle on some of the Chagos islands.

    Who are the Chagossians?

    The Chagos Archipelago was unpopulated before European expansion in the Indian Ocean, when it was administered as a dependency of colonial Mauritius. French, and later British, colonists populated the islands. This took place first with enslaved labourers, mostly from east Africa and Madagascar via Mauritius, and later with contract workers, mostly from India via Mauritius.

    The economy relied on coconut plantations, which became central to Chagossian culture. Coconut features in Chagossian cuisine, handicrafts and song.

    The population of the Chagos islands rose over the 19th century. It hovered around 1,000 in the first half of the 20th century.

    At the request of the US, the UK authorities depopulated the Chagos Archipelago to make way for the military base. From 1967 to 1973, they forcibly evicted more than 1,500 islanders to Mauritius and Seychelles.

    They did this first by preventing the return of islanders who had gone on trips to Mauritius and Seychelles. Later, they restricted supplies and wound down work on coconut plantations. Finally, they coerced the remaining islanders onto crowded ships.



    Read more:
    How the US and UK worked together to recolonise the Chagos Islands and evict Chagossians

    By 1973, between 1,328 and 1,522 Chagos islanders had been relocated to Mauritius, and 232 to Seychelles. Their forced displacement led to further economic, psychological and cultural harms.

    The British Overseas Territories Act 2002 and the Nationality and Borders Act 2022 awarded UK citizenship to Chagos islanders and their descendants born in exile. Today, several thousand members of the extended Chagossian community live in the UK, while many still live in Mauritius and Seychelles.

    Since 2002, I have conducted anthropological research with the extended and geographically dispersed Chagossian communities. I have witnessed their chronic marginalisation firsthand.

    My research has studied how members of this dispersed and fractured community have sustained their relationships to Chagos through shared cultural practices.

    One example of this is through music. Chagossian sega songs composed on Chagos paint a nuanced picture of the complexities and turbulence of colonial plantation life. Lyrics protest unfavourable social, political, and economic conditions. They lament personal suffering, depict joyful occasions, or jest via suggestive double entendres.

    Meanwhile, sega songs are now also composed in exile. They contrast depictions of the island as an idyllic paradise, with the community’s subsequent experiences of displacement, dislocation and loss.

    These cultural practices have brought the exiled Chagossian community together, and served as a vehicle for cultural and political mobilisation. They have also, I argue, drawn attention to the Chagossian cause from outside communities.

    Resettlement

    Chagossian activists have long campaigned for compensation for their forcible displacement and their legal right of return. They secured limited compensation from the UK government in 1978 and 1982. But they have not yet achieved resettlement in practice.

    It is not yet clear whether displaced Chagossians will be able to return to the islands under the new agreement.

    Members of the Chagossian community hold differing opinions about resettlement and sovereignty. Some are hopeful that the Mauritian government will facilitate resettlement: something the UK refused to do.

    Some Mauritian citizens and Chagos islanders from Diego Garcia are critical of the exclusion of Diego Garcia from the agreement. And many Chagossians are worried that Mauritius might prioritise the interests of Mauritian citizens over non-citizens, or that it might prioritise its economic and military interests over resettlement.

    Many Chagossians are concerned
    that the negotiations involved representatives of the two governments, but not of the displaced Chagossian community.

    The political agreement is subject to the finalisation of a treaty and supporting legal documents. This means there is still time for the governments to involve Chagossians in the conversation.

    Laura Jeffery has previously received funding for Chagos research from the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the UK Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC).

    – ref. Chagos islands: what the UK-Mauritius agreement means for displaced Chagossians – https://theconversation.com/chagos-islands-what-the-uk-mauritius-agreement-means-for-displaced-chagossians-240581

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Whale sharks on collision course as warming seas may force them into shipping lanes – new study

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Freya Womersley, Postdoctoral Research Scientist, Marine Biological Association

    Global warming has the potential to reshuffle the spaces used by life on Earth, across all ecosystems. And our new research shows whale sharks – the world’s largest fish – could be at risk, as warming oceans may force them into busy human shipping lanes.

    More than 12,000 marine species are expected to redistribute in future as seas warm up. Those animals that are unable to move to remain within suitable environments risk being wiped out entirely.

    But things are different for larger and highly mobile animals that can move freely to find conditions that suit their needs. For them, changing ocean conditions may not be such a huge threat in isolation, as they can migrate to cooler seas. Rather, shifting conditions may force species into new and more dangerous areas where they come into contact with ship propellers and other direct human threats.

    We fear this will happen with whale sharks. These huge sharks can reach up to 18 metres – about four cars end to end – but despite their size and robust appearance, their numbers have already declined by over 50% in the last 75 years.

    Whale sharks are big and slow (and are sharks not whales).
    Sean Steininger / shutterstock

    In previous research we discovered this decline may be partly due to collisions with large ships. Whale sharks are particularly vulnerable as they cruise around feeding on plankton and other tiny organisms, rarely needing to swim faster than human walking pace. While spending long periods moving slowly near the surface, they’re often struck by ships and killed.

    Our new research builds on this previous work. We find that climate change will put these docile giants in even greater danger as their preferred habitats move in into new areas with heavy ship traffic.

    An uncertain future

    The research was carried out by an international team of over 50 scientists from 18 countries involved in the Global Shark Movement Project, using 15 years’ worth of satellite tracking data from almost 350 individually tagged whale sharks.

    Movement tracks were matched to temperature, salinity and other environmental conditions at the time to determine what sort of habitat the sharks preferred. These relationships were then projected forward in time based on climate models (powerful computer programmes that simulate the climate) to reveal which parts of the ocean may in future have similar conditions to those used by the species today.

    Our state-of-the-art approach uncovered totally new areas that may be able to support whale sharks in future, such as US waters in the Pacific in the region of the California bight, Japanese waters in the eastern China Sea and the Atlantic waters of many west African countries. We quickly realised that these regions are home to some of the world’s busiest sea ports and shipping highways, so we overlaid our maps of habitat preference with those of global shipping to determine sharks are expected to run into ships.

    The world’s main shipping lanes, with the busiest lanes coloured yellow. Areas C (US west coast), D (west Africa) and E (east Asia) are expected to become more suitable for whale sharks as the oceans warm.
    Womersley et al / Nature Climate Change, CC BY-SA

    Through this we project that co-occurrence between sharks and ships will be be 15,000 times greater by the end of this century if we continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels, compared to only 20 times greater if we follow a sustainable development scenario.

    This does not mean that collisions will increase by 15,000 times, or even by 20 times, as we can only predict where whale sharks will be in future and the precise number of ships will vary. However, if the sharks do move into these new areas and their busy shipping lanes, increased mortality is a very real possibility.

    We’ve already recorded shark-attached satellite tags abruptly stopping transmissions in shipping lanes, with depth-recording tags showing the sharks slowly sinking – likely dead – to the seafloor.

    Changing tack

    Our results are alarming but highlight that we do have the capacity to change the population trajectory for whale sharks. In this case, through mitigating climate change, we can also indirectly ensure that the ocean is a safer place for some of its largest residents.

    We already know which strategies to trial for limiting collisions between ships and sharks. In February 2024 a meeting of signatories to the UN’s convention on the conservation of migratory species put forward a series of recommendations with specific focus on whale sharks. These include slowing speeds and re-routing around key sites, and setting up a collision-reporting network. It is now up to individual governments to take action.

    It’s possible that other species will experience similar pressures as a result of climate change. For example, heat waves in the oceans may force other sharks into cooler surface waters which are being exploited by longline fisheries, or into deeper depths where there is less oxygen.

    It’s time to shift our focus on to these interacting stressors in future, so that we can start to quantify the mosaic of threats that marine animals must endure in the oceans of tomorrow and protect those most at risk.

    Freya Womersley receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through a University of Southampton INSPIRE DTP PhD Studentship. She is affiliated with the Marine Biological Association (MBA) in Plymouth, UK and the Global Shark Movement Project, which is based at the MBA.

    David Sims receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the European Research Council (ERC), and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. He is affiliated with the Marine Biological Association (MBA) in Plymouth, UK, and the Global Shark Movement Project, which is based at the MBA.

    – ref. Whale sharks on collision course as warming seas may force them into shipping lanes – new study – https://theconversation.com/whale-sharks-on-collision-course-as-warming-seas-may-force-them-into-shipping-lanes-new-study-240727

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Too good to be true? New study shows people reject freebies and cheap deals for fear of hidden costs

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Vonasch, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, University of Canterbury

    If you’re offered a free cookie, you might say yes. But if you’re paid to eat a free cookie, would your response be the same?

    In our new research, twice as many people were willing to eat a cookie when they weren’t offered payment compared with when they were.

    From a purely economic perspective, our findings reflect irrational decision making. Objectively, a cookie plus money is better than just a cookie.

    But people aren’t purely economic. They’re social animals with a tendency to look for hidden reasons behind other people’s behaviours.

    In the case of overly generous deals, people are expecting a “phantom cost” – one hidden in the initial offer. And this expectation influences their decision to accept something or not.

    Research participants who were offered a free cookie plus payment thought maybe the cookies were poisoned. Or maybe someone spat on them. Or they expected they would then owe a favour to the person handing out the treats once the cookie was eaten.

    Too good to be true

    Our cookies study was just one of ten experiments involving 4,205 participants in the United States and Iran.

    We tested how phantom costs influenced people’s choices to accept or reject overly generous economic offers.

    Each study gave people an offer. They had to decide whether to accept or not, and then explain why.

    One study asked participants to imagine they were a truck driver and looking online for a job. All the jobs were described the same way, but we varied the wage. People offered the normal US$15 per hour were perfectly willing to take the job.

    Others were offered more than the normal wage. The participants in this group imagined phantom costs. And the higher the wage they were offered, the worse the costs they imagined.

    When offered $20 or $25 per hour, participants imagined the role involved more responsibilities or harder work. But they considered this to be worth it. Most people preferred a job that paid a bit more than normal, despite the expectation of phantom costs.

    However, when we offered way too much money – more than $900 per hour – most people rejected the job they were willing to do for $15.

    Why? They imagined far worse phantom costs: driving for the mob, carrying dangerous radioactive waste or smuggling drugs across the border. A suspiciously high hourly rate or wage can end up putting people off.

    Suspicion is global

    We repeated this experiment with different jobs, different normal wages, and in different countries.

    In both the US and Iran, despite very different types of economy, people showed the same pattern of suspicion and rejected very high wages. The only difference was that in Iran the expected wages were lower, so the wages didn’t have to be high by US standards to become suspicious.

    Another experiment tested how phantom costs could affect purchases of plane tickets involving a hypothetical choice between three flights.

    One cost $235, another $275. When the third option was $205, most people chose that. However, if the third option was $15, hardly anyone chose the cheapest flight. They rejected it because they imagined horrible phantom costs such as terrorists and plane crashes.

    However, when we provided a reason for the low price – very uncomfortable seats – most people preferred the $15 flight. Uncomfortable seats are not usually a selling point. But they explained the cheap price, so people didn’t search for other, dangerous explanations.

    Sufficient explanations for something being a great deal remove people’s tendency to imagine phantom costs.

    A good offer, not a suspicious one

    Businesses face a balancing act when it comes to offering customers a good deal.

    On the one hand, the expectation of phantom costs decreases interest in the offer. On the other hand, price-sensitive consumers are often looking for ways to get the best deal.

    To avoid the pitfalls of phantom costs, businesses need to communicate their reasons for offering a particularly good deal. A “holiday sale” or “end-of-season sale”, for example, may explain why items are discounted.

    In the job market, identifying “good performance” as a reason for an employee’s pay raise can sidestep the expectation of hidden downsides – such as an increased workload.

    It’s clear people are not merely self-interested economic beings. We’re savvy, psychological beings capable of reading into the motivations of others to protect ourselves from offers that seem too good to be true.

    Andrew Vonasch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Too good to be true? New study shows people reject freebies and cheap deals for fear of hidden costs – https://theconversation.com/too-good-to-be-true-new-study-shows-people-reject-freebies-and-cheap-deals-for-fear-of-hidden-costs-238869

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Failure to launch: why the Albanese government is in trouble

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carol Johnson, Emerita Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Adelaide

    It wasn’t meant to be like this.

    In her 2022 study of Anthony Albanese, Katharine Murphy describes a prime minister who thought he’d be successfully managing an idealistic, collaborative and positive “new politics” that would favour the Teal independents rather than Dutton’s Liberals. Albanese seemed confident that Labor was destined for an extended period in office. Given he later appointed Murphy to his communications team, he apparently approved of her analysis.

    However, even at the time Murphy’s Lone Wolf: Albanese and the New Politics was published, various commentators, including myself, queried the “new politics” scenario. While the Teals may represent a new politics, it is clear that the old Liberal politics — of culture wars and denouncing Labor’s economic and climate change policies — is also still very much with us.

    Labor and the Liberals are now neck-and-neck in some polls, with minority government (or worse) potentially looming for Labor. Meanwhile, Gareth Evans and Bill Kelty, key figures from the Hawke/Keating period, have excoriated the Albanese government’s allegedly lacklustre performance.

    How did it all go so wrong?

    Great expectations; modest reality

    Some of the reasons can be traced back to difficulties addressing unrealistic expectations in Labor’s 2022 election strategy. Albanese went to the 2022 election with a “new politics”, collaborative style agenda that sought to bring all Australians, including business, labour, Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians together. It was a small target strategy based on assumed common interests, kindness and compassion rather than divisiveness.

    As a result, Labor successfully countered Scott Morrison’s populist, “us versus them” campaign strategy. However, Labor’s approach was to prove easier to implement as an election strategy than in government, as three examples show.

    First, Albanese was channelling Bob Hawke when it came to bringing business and labour together. Yet, the Hawke government’s rapprochement with business was based on business being able to pay lower wages, because workers would be compensated by a government-funded “social wage” in the form of benefits and entitlements.

    By contrast, the Albanese government pledged to end the wage stagnation of the Liberal years and generally increase wages. A major emphasis was placed on improving the wages of low-paid women workers. In the process, Labor tackled issues that arose from Keating’s flawed, neoliberal-influenced, enterprise bargaining model.

    However, key business groups criticised Labor’s resulting industrial relations measures, including multi-employer bargaining, increases in the minimum wage, and measures designed to address precarious and contract work. The Liberals have largely sided with business critiques.

    Second, Labor’s attempts to bring Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians together, via the Voice referendum, fell victim to a divisive, populist campaign by Dutton and others. Dutton depicted the Voice proposal not as arising from a major national meeting of Indigenous representatives but as being an elite “Canberra voice” that would give special rights to Indigenous Australians that were denied to others. Furthermore, he argued that government was so focused on elite “woke” issues such as the Voice, it was neglecting Australian workers’ cost-of-living crisis. Labor’s strategy for countering right-wing populism was in disarray.

    Albanese’s response to the Voice loss was to go even more “small target” in ways that alienated progressive supporters. He abandoned key commitments ranging from the Indigenous Makarrata commission process of Treaty and Truth-telling, to protecting LGBTQI+ teachers and students from being sacked by religious schools. The debacle over including gender identity questions in the census was another result.

    Third, international events, and other parties’ politicisation of them, have impeded the government’s attempts at social cohesion. Australian political debate has become so polarised over developments in the Middle East that the Albanese government is accused of abandoning support for Israel by the Liberals and the Murdoch press, while simultaneously being accused of being “complicit in Israel’s genocide” by the Greens and pro-Palestinian groups.

    Narrative failure

    As its original story of bringing Australians together has been increasingly undermined, the government has floundered when it comes to telling a clear narrative about itself. By contrast, Dutton’s relentless, focused and simply expressed negativity has been cutting through.

    Part of Labor’s problem in countering Dutton is that he is targeting them for things that are often beyond their control.

    For example, Dutton’s claim the government has been too distracted by so-called “woke” issues to address the cost-of-living crisis has been particularly electorally damaging for Labor. So have his claims that Labor’s renewable energy policies are fuelling inflation and pushing up the cost of living still further.

    The government argues it has been providing extensive cost-of-living relief in the form of tax cuts, energy bill relief, rental assistance, wage increases, cheaper medicines and reduced child care costs. However, the problem is that such government measures are being continually undercut by inflation, price increases, high interest rates, and the housing affordability and supply crisis.

    Yet, the housing affordability and supply crisis has been aggravated by decades of poor housing policy that long predate the Albanese government. Furthermore, Labor’s attempts to address it are currently being stymied by a combination of Coalition and Greens opposition, once again sandwiching Labor.

    Meanwhile, the Coalition argues that government spending is exacerbating inflation and high interest rates. However, even the independent Reserve Bank, which sets cash interest rates and is also critical of government spending, has drawn attention to multiple international factors playing a role in inflation. Price increase gouging by some businesses to augment their profits has exacerbated the problem.

    Furthermore, Treasurer Jim Chalmers argues that existing government spending levels have been essential to preventing Australia sliding into recession, while still enabling a budget surplus.

    Chalmers has struggled to cut through in the way that Keating’s messages did. However, Keating benefited from the Coalition largely agreeing with his neoliberal-influenced “reform” agenda, despite arguing it wasn’t going far enough. By contrast, Chalmers has been facing a fundamentally hostile opposition, unsympathetic to key influences on his thought, such as Mariana Mazzucato.

    Labor has also had trouble selling the government’s achievements because, as I argue in a recent book, some of the Albanese government’s most successful reform measures have been in gender equality (although much more still needs to be done). Despite women making up more than half of the population, reforms that affect women tend to be undervalued in what is still a male defined political culture. Furthermore, the working class is often conceived in terms of blue collar male employment, so benefits for women workers are not being adequately recognised. This is particularly the case in Dutton’s hyper-masculine, strongman discourse.

    Mobilising gendered leadership stereotypes has been central to Dutton’s populist “us” versus “them” politics. Dutton consistently depicts Albanese as an emasculated “weak” leader on issues ranging from addressing the cost of living crisis to detaining asylum seekers freed by a High Court decision, and supporting Israel. By contrast, Dutton is depicted as the strong leader who will stand up for everyday Australians allegedly abandoned by Labor and the so-called elites.

    This does not look like a “new politics” at all and it is a divisive, populist terrain that Labor is finding very difficult to negotiate.

    Carol Johnson has received past funding from the Australian Research Council for work on Labor governments and on gender equality policy. .

    – ref. Failure to launch: why the Albanese government is in trouble – https://theconversation.com/failure-to-launch-why-the-albanese-government-is-in-trouble-239730

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Many stable atoms have ‘magic numbers’ of protons and neutrons − 75 years ago, 2 physicists discovered their special properties

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Artemis Spyrou, Professor of Nuclear Physics, Michigan State University

    The linear accelerator at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams, where researchers study rare isotopes of elements. Facility for Rare Isotope Beams

    The word magic is not often used in the context of science. But in the early 1930s, scientists discovered that some atomic nuclei – the center part of atoms, which make up all matter – were more stable than others. These nuclei had specific numbers of protons or neutrons, or magic numbers, as physicist Eugene Wigner called them.

    Maria Goeppert Mayer won the 1963 Nobel Prize in physics.
    Argonne National Laboratory, CC BY-NC-SA

    The race to figure out what made these nuclei so stable began. Understanding these magic numbers would allow scientists to predict the properties of other nuclei, such as their mass or how long they are expected to live. With that, scientists could also predict which combinations of protons and neutrons can result in a nucleus.

    The solution to the puzzle came in 1949 from two directions simultaneously. In the U.S., physicist Maria Goeppert Mayer published an explanation, at the same time as a group of scientists led by J. Hans D. Jensen in Germany found the same solution.

    Hans Daniel Jensen won the 1963 Nobel Prize in physics.
    The Nobel Foundation

    For their discovery, the two physicists each got a quarter of the 1963 Nobel Prize in physics. We’re two nuclear scientists whose work is built on Goeppert Mayer’s and Jensen’s discoveries 75 years ago. These magic numbers continue to play an important role in our research, only now we can study them in nuclei that live for just a fraction of a second.

    Stability in the atom

    The atom is a complex system of particles. It’s made up of a central nucleus consisting of protons and neutrons, called nucleons, with electrons orbiting around the nucleus.

    Nobel prize-winning physicist Niels Bohr described these electrons in the atom as existing in a shell structure. The electrons circulate around the nucleus in particular energy levels, or orbits. These orbits have specific energies, and each orbit can hold only so many electrons.

    Chemical reactions result from interactions between the electrons in two atoms. In Bohr’s model, if an electron orbit is not already filled, then it’s easier for the atoms to exchange or share those electrons and induce chemical reactions.

    The Bohr model of the atom.
    AG Caesar/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    One class of elements, the noble gases, hardly ever react with other elements. In noble gases, the electrons occupy completely filled orbits, and as a result the atoms greedily hold onto their electrons instead of sharing and undergoing a chemical reaction.

    In the 1930s, scientists wondered whether protons and neutrons might also occupy orbits, like electrons. But nobody could show this conclusively. For more than a decade, the scientific community was unable to describe the nucleus in terms of individual protons and neutrons. Scientists used a more simplified picture, one that treated protons and neutrons as one single system, like a drop of water.

    Magic numbers

    In 1949, Goeppert Mayer and Jensen developed the so-called shell model of the nucleus.
    Protons and neutrons occupy particular orbits, analogous to electrons, but they also have a property called spin – similar to a spinning top. Goeppert Mayer and Jensen found that when combining the two properties in their calculations, they were able to reproduce the experimental observations.

    Through some experiments, they found that nuclei with certain magic numbers of neutrons or protons are unusually stable and hold onto their nucleons more than researchers previously expected, just like how noble gases hold onto their electrons.

    The magic numbers known to scientists are 2, 8, 20, 28, 50, 82 and 126. They are the same for both protons and neutrons. When a nucleus has a magic number of protons or neutrons, then the particular orbit is filled, and the nucleus is not very reactive, similar to the noble gases.

    For example, the element tin has a magic number of protons. Tin always has 50 protons, and its most common isotope has 70 neutrons. Isotopes are atoms of the same element that have a different number of neutrons.

    There are nine other stable isotopes of tin that can exist – it’s the element with the largest number of stable isotopes. A stable isotope will never spontaneously change into a different element, which is what happens to radioactive isotopes.

    Helium, with two protons and two neutrons, is the lightest “doubly magic” nucleus. Both its neutron count and its proton count are a magic number. The forces that hold the helium-4 nucleus together are so strong that it’s impossible to attach another proton or neutron. If you tried to add another proton or neutron, the resulting atom would fall apart instantaneously.

    On the other hand, the heaviest stable nucleus in existence, lead-208, is also a doubly magic nucleus. It has magic numbers of 82 protons and 126 neutrons.

    Many stable isotopes have magic numbers of protons and neutrons.
    The Facility for Rare Isotope Beams

    Examples of magic numbers and stable nuclei exist everywhere – but scientists couldn’t explain them without the introduction of the shell model.

    Stable nuclei in nature

    The shell structure in nuclei tells researchers about how elements are distributed across the Earth and throughout the universe.

    One of the most abundant elements on our planet and in the human body is oxygen, in particular the isotope oxygen-16.

    With eight protons and eight neutrons, oxygen-16 has an extremely stable nucleus. A nearby star produced the oxygen we find on Earth through nuclear reactions in its core sometime before the solar system was formed.

    Since oxygen nuclei are doubly magic, these nuclei in the star did not interact very much with other nuclei. So more oxygen was left around to eventually act as an essential ingredient for life on Earth.

    In her Nobel lecture, Maria Goeppert Mayer talked about the work she did with physicist Edward Teller. The two had attempted to describe how these elements formed in stars. In the 1930s, it was impossible for them to explain why certain elements and isotopes were more abundant in stars than others. She later found that the increased abundances corresponded to nuclei with something in common: They all had magic numbers of neutrons.

    With the shell model and the explanation of magic numbers, the production of elements in stars was possible and was published in 1957.

    Scientists today continue to use ideas from the nuclear shell model to explain new phenomena in nuclear science. A few accelerator facilities, such as the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams, where we work, aim to create more exotic nuclei to understand how their properties change compared with their stable counterparts.

    At the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams, scientists produce new isotopes by accelerating stable isotopes to about half the speed of light and smashing them at a target. Out of the pieces, we select the rarest ones and study their properties.

    Possibly the most profound modern discovery is the fact that the magic numbers change in exotic nuclei like the type we create here. So, 75 years after the original discovery, the race to discover the next magic number is still on.

    Artemis Spyrou receives funding from the US National Science Foundation.

    Sean Liddick receives funding from the Department of Energy, Office of Science and the Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration.

    – ref. Many stable atoms have ‘magic numbers’ of protons and neutrons − 75 years ago, 2 physicists discovered their special properties – https://theconversation.com/many-stable-atoms-have-magic-numbers-of-protons-and-neutrons-75-years-ago-2-physicists-discovered-their-special-properties-239690

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: One of science’s greatest achievements: how the rapid development of COVID vaccines prepares us for future pandemics

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Griffin, Professor, Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, The University of Queensland

    Since COVID was first reported in December 2019, there have been more than 775 million recorded infections and more than 7 million deaths from the disease. This makes COVID the seventh-deadliest pandemic in recorded history.

    Factors including climate change, disruption of animal habitats, poverty and global travel mean we’re only likely to see more pandemics in the future.

    It’s impossible to predict exactly when the next pandemic will happen, or what it will be. But experts around the world are working to prepare for this inevitable “disease X”.

    One of the cornerstones of being prepared for the next pandemic is being in the best possible position to design and deploy a suitable vaccine. To this end, scientists and researchers can learn a lot from COVID vaccine development.

    A look back

    After SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID) was discovered, vaccine development moved very quickly. In February 2020 the first batch of vaccines was completed (from Moderna) and the first clinical trials began in March.

    An mRNA vaccine from Pfizer/BioNTech was the first to be approved, on December 2 2020 in the United Kingdom. Approvals for this and other vaccines, including shots developed by Moderna (another mRNA vaccine) and Oxford/AstraZeneca (a viral vector vaccine), followed elsewhere soon afterwards.

    Previously the fastest vaccine developed took around four years (for mumps in the 1960s). Had COVID vaccines taken this long it would mean we would only just be rolling them out this year.

    An estimated 13.72 billion COVID vaccine doses have now been administered, with more than 70% of the world’s population having received at least one dose.

    The rapid development and rollout of COVID vaccines is likely to be one of the greatest achievements of medical science ever. It also means we are in a much better position to respond to future emerging pathogens.

    New vaccine technology

    A lot of work over many years prepared us to develop COVID vaccines as quickly as we did. This included developing new platforms such as viral vector and mRNA vaccines that can be adapted quickly to new pathogens.

    While scientists had been working on mRNA vaccines for decades before the COVID pandemic, the COVID shots from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna were the first mRNA vaccines to be approved for human use.

    These vaccines work by giving our body instructions (the “m” in mRNA stands for messenger) to make SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins. These are proteins on the surface of the virus which it uses to attach to our cells. This means when we encounter SARS-CoV-2, our immune system is poised to respond.

    This technology will almost certainly be used to protect against other diseases, and could potentially help with a future pandemic.

    In the meantime, scientists are working to improve mRNA technology even further. For example, “self-amplifying RNA” has the potential to enhance immune responses at lower doses compared with conventional mRNA.

    mRNA vaccines teach our bodies to make SARS-CoV-2’s spike protein.
    Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

    While our current COVID vaccines are safe and very effective at protecting against severe disease, they’re not perfect. We may never be able to achieve a “perfect” vaccine, but some additional properties we’d like to see in future COVID vaccines include being better at reducing transmission, lasting longer, and needing to be updated less often as new variants emerge.

    Even now there are many COVID vaccines in clinical trials. So hopefully, COVID vaccines that improve on the initial shots will be available relatively soon.

    Other desirable attributes include vaccines we can administer by alternate routes to needles. For COVID and other diseases such as influenza, we’re seeing significant developments locally and internationally on vaccines than can be administered via skin patches, through the nose, and even orally.

    Some challenges

    Developing vaccines for COVID was a huge challenge, but one that can mostly be judged a success. Research has estimated COVID vaccines saved 14.4 million lives across 185 countries in just their first year.

    However, the story of COVID vaccination has also had many other challenges, and arguably a number of failures.

    First, the distribution of vaccines was not equitable. Analysis of the initial rollout suggested nearly 80% of eligible people in high-income countries were vaccinated, compared with just over 10% in low-income nations.

    Supply of vaccines was an issue in many parts of the world, so expanding local capacity to enable more rapid production and distribution of vaccines will be important for the next pandemic.

    Further, adverse events linked to COVID vaccines, such as rare blood clots after the AstraZeneca vaccine, affected perceptions of vaccine safety. While every serious adverse event is significant, these incidents were very rare.

    However, these issues exacerbated other challenges that hampered vaccine uptake, including the spread of misinformation.

    Misinformation remains a problem now and will probably still be prevalent whenever we face the next pandemic. Addressing this challenge involves understanding what’s deterring people from getting vaccinated, then informing and educating, addressing misinformation both about vaccination and the risks of the disease itself.

    Restoring and building trust in public health authorities also needs to continue to be a focus. Trust in governments and health authorities declined during the COVID pandemic, and evidence shows lower trust is associated with lower vaccine uptake.

    The COVID vaccine rollout faced a variety of challenges.
    Yuganov Konstantin/Shutterstock

    Ongoing preparation

    There’s no doubt our recent experience with COVID, particularly the rapid development of multiple safe and effective vaccines, has put us in a better position for the next pandemic.

    This didn’t happen by accident. There was a lot of preparation even before COVID was first discovered that facilitated this. Organisations like the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) have been supporting research to develop vaccines rapidly to respond to a new threat for some time.

    CEPI has an ongoing program that aims to be able to develop a vaccine against a new threat, or disease X, in just 100 days. While COVID vaccines have been a huge achievement, work continues in the hope we will be able to develop a vaccine even faster next time.

    This article is part of a series on the next pandemic.

    Paul Griffin is a director and scientific advisory board member of the immunisation coalition. He has served on Medical Advisory Boards including for AstraZeneca, GSK, MSD, Moderna, Biocelect/Novavax, Seqirus and Pfizer and has received speaker honoraria including from Seqirus, Novartis, Gilead, Sanofi, MSD and Janssen.

    – ref. One of science’s greatest achievements: how the rapid development of COVID vaccines prepares us for future pandemics – https://theconversation.com/one-of-sciences-greatest-achievements-how-the-rapid-development-of-covid-vaccines-prepares-us-for-future-pandemics-228787

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: I think my child might need a tutor. What do I need to consider first?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew White, Lecturer and Researcher Australian Catholic University, Australian Catholic University

    School tutoring is a huge business. Australian estimates suggest it was worth more than of A$1.5 billion as of 2021.

    In Australia, we see frequent media reports of parents using tutors to help their children through school.

    How can you tell if tutoring is right for your child?

    What is tutoring?

    Private tutoring can be take many forms, but involves parents paying for additional lessons outside of schools hours. These are either one-to-one or in small groups.

    There are services available for students in primary school through to senior high school.

    Some tutoring services target specific skills, such as literacy or numeracy. Others offer support for young people with organisation skills and homework or preparation for certain exams.

    Tutoring can go for a short burst over a few weeks to prepare for an exam or it may be regular and ongoing to maintain learning.

    Tutoring could be to catch up on one element of school, such as handwriting or reading.
    Deyan Georgiev/ Shutterstock

    Why do people get tutoring?

    Families can get tutoring for a student for a wide range of reasons.

    A child may be struggling with certain elements of schooling – such as reading, writing, or maths. Tutoring can provide an opportunity to catch-up with tailored support.

    Tutoring can also help children prepare for tests and exams, such as NAPLAN or Year 12.

    Tutoring is used to prepare students for government selective school programs or private school scholarship exams.

    Researchers have highlighted some cultural backgrounds see investing in tutoring as an essential part of educating their children and helping them reach their full potential.

    The tutoring debate

    Tutoring can be expensive and time consuming for families. Families may pay between $30 and $200 a session, depending on the subject and qualifications of the tutor.

    Some argue this gives some children an unfair advantage and students should instead rely on their natural ability.

    Despite the criticism, there are benefits to tutoring. This includes giving students extra opportunities to consolidate their knowledge – we know this can help students learn.

    It can also help build their confidence if a tutor can step through learning in a less pressured environment. As my research has shown, academic progress relies heavily on a students’ belief in their capacity to succeed.

    Does my child need a tutor?

    All students can benefit from personalised support and coaching in whatever they wish to peruse. However, all students do not need a tutor. The choice to engage a tutor should be attached to a goal that you and your child agree on.

    If the young person does not want to engage in tutoring having a tutor is not going to help. Rather, it is more likely to lead to stress and arguments.

    It may help to talk to your child’s teacher and review school reports before starting with a tutor to work out which particular areas need extra attention.

    Depending on what you need, your child’s tutor may be a university student or someone who has made a career out of tutoring.
    Dmytro Zinkevvych/Shutterstock

    If your shared goal is to catch up or help with certain academic skills, it is important to find a tutor who is experienced and can explain the approach they take and what evidence it is based on.

    If the goal is organisation, homework or even just to improve confidence, you could at first try a university student who has past success themselves or with other students. For more specialised goals, seek out tutors who are open about their qualifications, experience and past success.

    Child safety should also be a consideration. The Australian Tutoring Association provides practical advice for parents choosing a tutor and a code of conduct for tutors.

    There is no requirement for tutors to be a member of the association. So parents should make sure any tutor has a current Working with Children check. You can of course also talk to other parents and teachers for recommendations.

    Matthew White does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. I think my child might need a tutor. What do I need to consider first? – https://theconversation.com/i-think-my-child-might-need-a-tutor-what-do-i-need-to-consider-first-240091

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ocean protection accounts for 10% of fish in the world’s coral reefs – but we could save so much more

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joshua Cinner, Professor & ARC Laureate Fellow, Thriving Oceans Research Hub, School of Geosciences, University of Sydney

    Ocean fish populations have fallen dramatically in the past half-century, and climate change is expected to make the problem worse. Governments have designated “marine protected areas”, where where human activity is constrained to protect ocean life. But have these efforts worked?

    About 8% of Earth’s oceans are protected, including about 3% where fishing is banned altogether. Our new study of nearly 2,600 tropical coral reefs around the world is the first to examine whether these areas have helped fish populations.

    We found about one in ten kilograms of fish on coral reefs is the result of efforts such as marine protected areas and other restrictions on fishing. This is promising news. But our study also reveals great room for improvement.

    A video discussing how Earth’s fish stocks are declining.

    Getting to grips with marine protection

    Maintaining healthy fish populations is important. Many communities depend on fishing for their food and livelihoods. And fish play a vital role in ocean ecosystems.

    Marine protected areas are a key policy tool used to increase fish populations. They cover a range of ocean areas including lagoons, coastal waters, deep seabed waters and coral reefs.

    The areas go by several names, including marine parks and conservation zones. Some, where fishing is prohibited, are known as no-take zones.

    Governments often quote figures on the area of ocean protected when seeking to tout their conservation policies. For example in Australia, we are told the federal, state and territory governments have established marine parks covering 4.3 million square kilometres or 48% of our oceans.

    But the extent to which marine protected areas actually conserve marine life varies enormously from place to place. So simply counting up the protected ocean area doesn’t tell you much about what has actually been achieved.

    Measuring success

    We and our colleagues wanted to assess the extent to which marine protection efforts have increased the amount of fish on coral reefs.

    We developed a computer model based on about 2,600 reefs across the global tropics, which includes reefs in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic oceans. From that, we estimated the amount of fish currently on each reef – measured in the kilograms of fish per hectare, or “biomass”.

    The estimations were based on information such as:

    • environmental conditions such as ocean temperature and the type of habitat where the reef is located

    • the intensity of fishing activity, known as “fishing pressure”

    • how strong the protection is – for example whether it bans fishing, or just restricts it

    • the level of compliance with no-take zones.

    We then simulated what would happen if we changed the type of protection strategy in each location while keeping everything else the same.

    We ran a few scenarios:

    • no coral reef conservation existed anywhere and all reefs could be fished without constraint

    • sites currently fished without constraint (which amounted to over half of our sites) had restrictions in place

    • fishing was prohibited on 30% of all reefs.

    And the results?

    We found both marine protected areas and other fishing restrictions account for about 10% of the fish “biomass” on reefs. In other words, about one in ten kilograms of fish on coral reefs is due to protection efforts.

    No-take zones punch above their weight. Of the fish biomass attributable to protection efforts, about 20% comes from just 3% of sites in no-take zones. This proportion would be even higher if illegal fishing in no-take zones was stamped out.

    But we found any type of fishing restriction was useful. If everywhere currently fished without constraint was subject to some level of protection – such as banning nets or spear guns – the biomass of fish globally would be another 10.5% higher, our study found. This essentially matches all conservation efforts to date.

    Our modelling also showed fish on coral reefs could be increased by up to 28% globally if the area of no-take zones rose to 30%.

    But these reefs must be chosen strategically. That’s because protection strategies can lead to wildly different results, depending on local conditions. For example, sites with lower fishing pressure in the surrounding seascape got a bigger boost from protection than places surrounded by intensive fishing effort.

    This may be because at heavily fished locations, algae often overtakes coral as the dominant feature. Algae is less fish-friendly than coral, so fish populations may not bounce back quickly even when fishing pressure is reduced.

    Grounds for optimism

    Our study tested the mettle of global coral reef conservation. On one hand, we found conservation efforts have made a contribution to the amount of fish on global coral reefs, which provides grounds for cautious optimism.

    But on the other hand, this contribution is quite modest. Our study shows much greater gains could be made not only by expanding protected marine areas, but also by improving compliance in existing ones.

    Most nations have signed a global agreement to protect 30% of Earth’s land and waters by 2030. That means the amount of ocean in marine protected areas globally will increase nearly fourfold in just six years.

    As governments continue this task, we hope our results help identify ocean sites that will benefit most from protection.

    Joshua Cinner receives funding from the Australian Research Council and National Geographic Society. He is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia and the International Coral Reef Society.

    Iain R. Caldwell is affiliated with the Wildlife Conservation Society

    – ref. Ocean protection accounts for 10% of fish in the world’s coral reefs – but we could save so much more – https://theconversation.com/ocean-protection-accounts-for-10-of-fish-in-the-worlds-coral-reefs-but-we-could-save-so-much-more-239188

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Still with the Tony Soprano memes? Young audiences are watching the series with fresh eyes

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander H. Beare, Lecturer in Media, University of Adelaide

    HBO’s latest crime drama The Penguin came with a flood of memes on TikTok, X and Instagram. They compare actor Colin Farrell’s Oswald Cobblepot to James Gandolfini’s Tony Soprano.

    It’s true, there are undeniable similarities between the two portrayals and shows. HBO’s official TikTok account went so far as to upload an edit of The Penguin trailer cut to the rhythm of Alabama 3’s Woke Up This Morning – the title theme for The Sopranos.

    Running for six seasons from 1999 to 2007, The Sopranos is enjoying a sustained cultural relevancy in 2024 – something other prestige dramas of the same era such as Six Feet Under and The Shield have not achieved. A new two-part documentary about the making of the The Sopranos just premiered on HBO, 25 years after the show made its debut.

    For the last couple of years, fans have been discovering the show and making it their own. But how does it fit the present moment?

    The Sopranos as catharsis

    My research and upcoming book is based on in-depth interviews with a group of new Sopranos fans all aged between 19–26. In other words, not old enough to have watched the show when it first aired.

    During the pandemic, The Sopranos saw a surge in viewership and interest that outstripped its contemporaries like Deadwood.

    Superficially, the show is visually comparable to COVID lockdown. Tony and his kids are regularly shown sleeping in, dressed in baggy clothes, and shuffling around the kitchen picking at cold cuts.

    For those I spoke with, viewing The Sopranos wasn’t a way to escape from lockdown: it was a way to purge pent-up emotion.

    For Darcy, the show became:

    Like a cathartic tool, like, I can relate, this is how life feels right now […] A bit of relief, and a sense of relatability, you know? It was always comforting when things are not good.

    Tom shared this feeling:

    One of the cool things about The Sopranos is that a lot of the stuff is really mundane […] It’s about drudgery more than anything […] That’s what lockdown feels like – and it definitely is what a lot of daily life feels like […] it’s those moments of opening up the fridge and just eating like 20 slices of gabagool because you can’t be fucked making something to eat.

    The Sopranos as nostalgia

    The Sopranos is a profoundly negative show and yet it was being viewed by the young people I spoke to through quite an optimistic lens.

    Alannah said:

    It makes me feel nostalgic for a time when things felt a little bit like […] simpler, even though they have complications. It just seemed like a good stage of history to be in.

    In a similar vein, Callum positively characterised this feeling as an “added bonus” that “drew him into watching the show”. Selina fondly remembered the fashion and music of the show.

    Watching with a new lens

    During its original run, The Sopranos was often lauded by scholars for its deconstruction of patriarchal masculinity. This was not so much the case for the people I spoke to.

    Alannah worried The Sopranos could easily be placed in the toxic online “manosphere”:

    [The Sopranos is] like Fight Club and American Psycho. White dudes will watch it and be like, ‘Yeah, this is fucking sick – that’s me man’. And it’s like, you don’t want to be these people! You have to criticise it yourself because it is not overt in my opinion.

    Stuart expressed a similar concern about The Sopranos’ ability to be a dangerous power fantasy.

    In his experience with online Sopranos content, he observed:

    [There are fans] who see Tony Soprano as the ideal man and don’t notice that the show is supposed to be critiquing his behaviour.

    These concerns about “misunderstanding” the show very much reflect current anxieties. The reporting about how the 2019 Joker film might incite violence from white men provides a salient reference point for these worries.

    For the new viewers I spoke to, there was a real concern The Sopranos could combine dangerously with today’s toxic misogynistic online content. They were worried Tony Soprano could be interpreted as a celebration of patriarchal masculinity rather than a critique.

    Born under a bad sign

    In 2024, The Sopranos is still managing to click with new audiences. But these fans interpret the show differently and take new meaning from it. When we look at their responses, we can see how The Sopranos intersects with the attitudes and anxieties of modern audiences.

    Next time you see a meme about Tony Soprano, consider what context today’s viewers place him in – and whether an audience from 20 years ago would have done the same. Today, he might be considered even more dangerous.

    Alexander H. Beare does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Still with the Tony Soprano memes? Young audiences are watching the series with fresh eyes – https://theconversation.com/still-with-the-tony-soprano-memes-young-audiences-are-watching-the-series-with-fresh-eyes-237982

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: South Africa’s unity government is being tested – the toppling of a mayor in a key city exposes faultlines

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Susan Booysen, Visiting Professor and Professor Emeritus, University of the Witwatersrand

    South Africa’s long-governing party, the ANC, performed disastrously in the country’s May 2024 elections. Its electoral fortunes are now tied to regaining support in Gauteng, the most populous and economically important province, which it had governed with outright majorities since 1994. In 2024 the ANC’s Gauteng result of 34.8%, along with its 17% in KwaZulu-Natal, sealed the party’s loss of its national outright majority. We asked political scientist Susan Booysen for her perspective on the ANC’s battle for Tshwane, the administrative seat of the national government, where the party used a newly constituted coalition to topple the Democratic Alliance mayor, Cilliers Brink.

    What lies behind the Gauteng ANC’s toppling of the DA mayor of Tshwane?

    For the ANC (African National Congress) to regain majority electoral support, much will depend on the Gauteng province’s populous base. The three Gauteng metropolitan municipalities of Tshwane, Johannesburg, and Ekurhuleni are key in this project. Besides constituting South Africa’s financial hub and having huge budgets, these metropolitan councils (metros) symbolise the country’s cultural heartbeat, and are a gateway to the rest of the continent.

    The ANC’s political control of these bases has been lessening. It fears further lapses may make the losses irreversible. It lost outright control of the Gauteng metros in 2016: it slipped to 49% in Ekurhuleni, 46% in Johannesburg and 41% in Tshwane. The 2021 local elections confirmed both the ANC’s slide and rule by unstable coalition governments.

    Since the 2021 elections, the metros have had multiple coalition governments. The ANC has, through coalition, reclaimed control of the top council positions in Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni.

    What does the toppling of Brink say about internal ANC party dynamics?

    Following their national coalition agreement of June 2024, parties to the coalition government have been discussing cascading the agreement to the provincial and local levels. These talks have been inconclusive.

    The ouster of the mayor of Tshwane was not explicitly or publicly condoned by the ANC’s national leadership. Neither did they stop it. The Tshwane crisis exposes the ANC’s internal party dynamics.

    The ANC in the province and in the Tshwane council constituted an alternative alliance – between the party, Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and ActionSA. ActionSA broke its previous alignment with the Democratic Alliance in favour of the ANC.

    Jointly the ANC, EFF and ActionSA hold 117 out of the 214 Tshwane council seats. They used this majority to pass a motion of no confidence against Brink and, in effect, his entire mayoral committee. A small band of one-seat parties reinforced Brink’s ejection.

    The Tshwane development highlighted one of the key faultlines in the government of national unity: the Gauteng ANC’s disdain for the unity government agreement. The national unity government comprises the ANC, DA, Inkatha Freedom Party, Patriotic Alliance, Freedom Front Plus and five other tiny parties. The agreement has the support of the majority in the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC), its highest decision-making body between elective conferences.

    The NEC had originally been strongly divided on forming a coalition with the DA.

    After being elected Gauteng premier with the support of the DA, Panyaza Lesufi constituted the Gauteng executive with the Patriotic Alliance, Rise Mzansi and Inkatha Freedom Party. It excludes the DA.

    Lesufi had offered the DA executive posts that would have placed it in a minor and subjected position in the province. The ANC’s national leadership accepted this. The DA rejected it.

    What are the implications for ANC-DA cooperation in the national government and other municipalities?

    The DA is fighting to have Cilliers Brink reinstated as mayor of Tshwane. It argues that the ANC’s capturing of the position threatens the unity government.

    The DA appears to be angling for a fairer dispensation within the overall coalition formation, given its importance as the second largest party in the coalition government, rather than rejection of the GNU government. The DA needs the coalition as much as the ANC does.

    The coalition government’s statement of intent, and how it is reflected in the lower provincial and municipal levels, are the key issue at stake.

    The Tshwane crisis stands in the context of other local governments where new alliances are forming outside the formula of the national coalition government.

    The crisis is in all probability not threatening the national coalition. But it may result in the fleshing out of the generally vaguely defined and minimalist Statement of Intent (the coalition agreement). In recent weeks more clarity has already emerged regarding conflict resolution in the unity government. The Tshwane crisis is likely to show whether and how the national level agreement resonates provincially and locally.

    In fact, the lesson from the Tshwane coalition fiasco might be that there ought to be no expectations that the coalition government’s formula of approximate proportionality among its constituent parties will be reflected in the executives of the lower-level structures.

    The DA stressed at the time of Brink’s removal that it had been in discussions with ANC national secretary general Fikile Mbalula and ANC negotiator David Makhura – and progress had been made for the two parties to jointly “stabilise” the Gauteng metros (read “exercise power-sharing”). It may have entailed the DA supporting the ANC in Ekurhuleni, and the ANC the DA in Tshwane.

    But the proposal came to naught when the ANC proceeded to capture Tshwane, which it last governed in 2016.

    The effect of the Tshwane fallout is likely to be heightened instability in South Africa’s metro councils. Without ANC-DA cooperation, much of the coalitions detente that had become possible in the wake of the national coalition agreement may dissipate. Instead, alternating coalition governments, through motions of no confidence, may proliferate.

    The instability caused by such party political tit-for-tats and coalition musical chairs, both in the large metropolitan councils and the local municipalities, will contribute to citizens suffering poor delivery of services – although it is not the sole cause.

    What does the ANC’s failure to sing from the same hymn book mean for the party?

    The Tshwane crisis goes to the heart of the struggles unfolding in the ANC.

    The ANC of 2024 is inherently unstable as it fights for electoral survival.

    Its national executive committee and presidency act in ways that hint at them lacking the power to call the shots in relation to coalitions in some provinces and municipalities; and reining in its Gauteng premier and provincial executive committee.

    This, as the party is trying to position itself favourably, through leadership changes, ahead of its national general council meeting next year, and its elective conference of 2027, in the hope of reversing electoral declines in local, provincial and national elections.

    Besides KwaZulu-Natal’s centrality to this process, Gauteng holds the base of ANC succession given that it is political home to its deputy president, Paul Mashatile, and Lesufi.

    The search for a new mayor for Tshwane unleashed a candidacy contest within the ANC. ANC mayoralty candidates are proliferating. They are emerging from the ranks of the politically powerful, anointed by high-level ANC power holders, along with candidates in the local ANC party structures and in the council itself.

    The legacy of the 2016 violent struggles and mayhem in the city amid anger about succession are invoked to justify some proposals. These struggles seem oblivious to new coalition contexts, and the ANC’s loss of majority power.

    Unless the fractious and divided ANC finds a united and consistent voice on coalitions, it may lose out on the possibility of using coalitions to regain electoral support. Unless the ANC in Gauteng is using the metros to confirm its alternative to the national formula.

    Susan Booysen in the past had received funding from HSRC, via various (completed) university projects; and has until recently been employed full-time by MISTRA.

    – ref. South Africa’s unity government is being tested – the toppling of a mayor in a key city exposes faultlines – https://theconversation.com/south-africas-unity-government-is-being-tested-the-toppling-of-a-mayor-in-a-key-city-exposes-faultlines-239986

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The youth-led research giving voice to teen mothers in Uganda

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Doris Kakuru, Professor, School of Child and Youth Care, University of Victoria

    Pregnancy can be a stressful enough time for any expecting mother, but it can be even more so for teenage girls navigating the added challenges they face. (Shutterstock)

    The global rate of teen pregnancies has been decreasing in recent decades. According to the World Health Organization, worldwide adolescent birth rates have decreased from 64.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15–19 years in 2000 to 41.3 births per 1,000 women in 2023.

    However, those numbers can differ significantly by region. Every year, around 21 million teenage girls in developing countries become pregnant, and around 12 million give birth.

    In Uganda, the teenage pregnancy rate remains among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, at 25 per cent. Cultural and religious norms often make adolescent sexuality a highly sensitive subject. Many girls can be ostracized or face marginalization if they become pregnant. And the long-term impacts on their lives can be significant. Almost 60 per cent of school dropouts in Uganda are due to pregnancy, and many never return to the education system.

    Pregnancy can be a stressful enough time for any expecting mother, but it can be even more so for a pregnant teenager in places where engaging in sexual relations is taboo, especially for girls.

    Along with colleagues in Uganda and Canada, we are conducting a community-engaged research project to understand the experiences of young mothers. Our project, Centering Marginal Voices, aims to build research and advocacy skills for young mothers in Uganda.

    A clip outlining the Centering Marginal Voices project.

    Community-engaged research

    Community-engaged research has emerged in social work as an important approach that empowers communities experiencing particular issues to make decisions concerning those issues. This approach cultivates long-term relationships and promotes the development of sustainable solutions for community problems.

    One form of this approach focuses on engaging youth in researching about their experiences with the issues affecting their lives. This can boost our understanding as researchers and make young people feel heard and empowered.

    Engaging young people in research requires clear communication, the use of appropriate channels of communication, constant feedback and listening. It can also mean providing logistical support like transportation or food, among other things. It is vital for researchers to listen to young people when they describe what they need to be participants in the research process.

    Many adolescent girls already face vulnerabilities and challenges when it comes to their reproductive health. Pregnancy can often add another layer of complexity to those challenges.

    While there is much discussion about teenage pregnancy in Uganda, rarely are young mothers given platforms to speak their truths to help policymakers understand and address the root causes. Their voices are muted and their lived experiences are not represented in policy.

    Teen motherhood presents girls with numerous challenges. They must navigate parenthood while still at a young age. They must figure out ways to support their children while still being dependents themselves. They also have to make important decisions and provide child care with limited experience to draw from, and manage their health needs alongside maternal care, among others.

    Their ability to conduct research may be influenced by a combination of these factors and by the skills they have, how they navigate relational dynamics, and the stigmatization they face being teen mothers.

    A webinar with the researchers and young mothers on the Centering Marginal Voices project.

    Centering young mothers in research

    As we began the research process, we held consultative meetings with community leaders who identified 40 young mothers from urban and rural parts of Uganda. We engaged the young mothers in discussions about their life journeys and in team building exercises. We later divided them into groups based on their villages. Each group then selected two peers to continue on the project as 12 youth peer researchers.

    When conducting this kind of community-engaged project, it is important for researchers to consider the ways they approach and include youth participants:

    Consent — Our first aim with the 12 selected young mothers was to seek consent from their parents or guardians. The young mothers also told us to speak with their live-in partners, whom we had not initially considered. They spoke to their parents or guardians, who were already expecting our team and eased the consent process for us.

    Communication — Young mothers in the capital Kampala preferred phone calls, WhatsApp and physical meetings. However, those in the rural areas did not all have smartphones or understand social media. This posed a challenge as our project entailed them conducting surveys using smartphones. We therefore revised our training to include basics on how to use the smartphone.

    Designing tools — We further engaged the youth peer researchers to refine our research tools. They helped us rephrase questions in local languages, especially those related to sexual relations.

    Mutual support — The youth peer researchers were trained to lead a survey and collect quantitative data from 766 participants in total. They prioritized teamwork and support, with some collecting more data than others. They also requested autonomy in scheduling their data collection to balance their research activities with their maternal duties and caring for their families.

    Navigating environments — The young mothers provided us with a descriptive tour of their environments. They advised us on where to go and how to behave when visiting. They always accompanied us within their community, acting as our guides.

    Young mothers know best about their own experiences, and this accords them a legitimate space in research as researchers. Practitioners and planners should be intent on being open to meaningfully engaging them while learning from them.

    Doris Kakuru has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. The Centering Marginal Voices project is supported by a consortium partnership of Makerere University, Nascent Research and Development Organization, and the University of Victoria.

    Jacqueline Nassimbwa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The youth-led research giving voice to teen mothers in Uganda – https://theconversation.com/the-youth-led-research-giving-voice-to-teen-mothers-in-uganda-239876

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Wealthier Canadians live longer and are less likely to be dependent as they age, new research finds

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Marie-Louise Leroux, Professeure titulaire en Sciences Economiques, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)

    Population aging is a growing challenge for developed countries like Canada, with significant implications for health care and long-term care systems. In OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, the population of people aged 80 and above is projected to more than double by 2050, reaching 9.8 per cent of the population.

    This demographic shift highlights the increasing demand for high-quality long-term care services. Older individuals frequently experience limitations in daily living activities, such as dressing, washing and household tasks.

    By 2050, half of people aged 65 or older in OECD nations are expected to report some limitation in daily living, and dementia cases are projected to reach 42 million. Canada is not exempt from this trend.



    Read more:
    Enabling better aging: The 4 things seniors need, and the 4 things that need to change

    In Québec, for instance, around 315,000 individuals require help with daily activities — a number expected to nearly double by 2050.

    As the number of elderly people needing care grows, the demand for long-term care services will present significant financial challenges for both individuals and governments. Understanding the economic and demographic factors driving long-term care needs, as well as their implications, is crucial for building a more equitable and robust care system.

    Low-income individuals face double penalty

    Research has shown that while life expectancy has increased, it’s unevenly distributed across socioeconomic groups. Factors such as age, ethnicity, gender, income and education play a significant role in determining longevity.

    In Canada, men in the top five per cent of earners live, on average, 11 per cent longer than those in the bottom five per cent. For women, the longevity gap between those with the highest earnings and the lowest earnings is 3.6 years. These findings are consistent with research from other countries, including the United States.

    However, research on the relationship between income and loss of autonomy is still limited. Some studies suggest that lower socioeconomic status is associated with poorer health outcomes and higher disability rates among older adults.

    In the United Kingdom and the U.S., individuals in the bottom third of wealth distribution live seven to nine fewer years without disability compared to those in the top third. Similarly, in Europe, less wealthy individuals have a higher likelihood of becoming dependent and they remain dependent longer.

    Understanding these socioeconomic disparities is crucial for shaping public policy and identifying which groups are the most vulnerable. Low-income individuals face a double penalty: they are both more likely to need long-term care and they are less financially equipped to bear the associated costs.

    As a result, public long-term care policies might consider prioritizing the support of low-income individuals, since wealthier individuals can more easily afford care.

    High-income Canadians live longer

    Our research explored the relationships between longevity, dependency and income using data from a 2016 survey of 2,000 Canadians aged 50 to 69.

    The data combined both subjective self-reports with objective data about the likelihood of living to age 85, developing limitations in daily living activities or entering a nursing home. Financial resources were measured through reported income and savings.

    Our findings show that Canadians with higher incomes are more likely to live to age 85 and are less likely to become dependent. After controlling for several socioeconomic factors, we found that a one per cent increase in income was associated with the following:

    • nearly a five per cent increase in survival probability;
    • a one per cent decrease in the likelihood of having limitations in daily living activities;
    • and a two per cent decrease in the likelihood of entering a long-term care home.

    The relationship between income and dependency was particularly strong among individuals in the top third of the income distribution. This suggests that financial resources play a significant role in extending life and maintaining independence as people age.

    Interestingly, despite their lower objective likelihood of needing nursing home care, higher-income individuals perceived themselves as more likely to require it. A one per cent increase in income was associated with a four per cent increase in the self-reported probability of entering a nursing home, even though the actual probability of this happening dropped by two per cent.

    This discrepancy may be explained by wealthier individuals considering other factors, such as their financial resources and the possibility of receiving care at home from a professional caregiver.

    Targeted support is needed

    The socio-demographic relationships from our study have important implications for designing equitable long-term care policies. Wealthier individuals tend to live longer and are less often dependent, meaning they are in a better position to pay for long-term care expenses.

    On the other hand, low income individuals are more likely to become dependent and may experience greater financial strain if they need to pay for long-term care costs over an extended period, potentially driving them into poverty.

    Our findings recommend that provincial and territorial governments should adopt redistributive policies for long-term care. These policies could involve providing additional subsidies aimed at low-income older individuals, either as a preventive measure or when they first become dependent.

    This approach aligns with the proposal made by Québec Health Minister Réjean Hébert in 2015, who suggested implementing “autonomy insurance” to help retirees above a certain age manage long-term care costs.

    Redistributive policies are critical not only because low-income individuals have fewer financial resources, but also because they face a higher likelihood of dependency. Without targeted support, these individuals could be left struggling to afford the care they need. Designing policies that recognize these disparities can help ensure a more equitable and sustainable long-term care system in Canada.

    Marie-Louise Leroux receives funding from FRQSC and SSHRC-CRSH. She is affiliated with CIRANO (Montréal) and CESifo (Munich).

    Marie Connolly receives funding from FRQSC and SSHRC-CRSH. She is affiliated with CIRANO (Montréal).

    – ref. Wealthier Canadians live longer and are less likely to be dependent as they age, new research finds – https://theconversation.com/wealthier-canadians-live-longer-and-are-less-likely-to-be-dependent-as-they-age-new-research-finds-240081

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: New path to home ownership on Māori land: BNZ expands innovative funding framework

    Source: BNZ statements

    More Māori and whānau across Aotearoa will benefit from home ownership opportunities, thanks to an expanded funding framework that enables lending for housing on Māori freehold land.

    Under the expanded model, individuals and whānau who meet BNZ’s standard home lending criteria can secure a home loan for housing on Māori land managed by land trusts or incorporations, at standard home loan interest rates.

    This is an extension to Bank of New Zealand’s (BNZ) innovative funding model, initially developed in collaboration with Ngāti Whātua Ōrākei, to support more Māori to achieve home ownership on their whenua (land).

    Whetu Rangi, BNZ Head of Māori Business, says the initiative is step forward in addressing the unique challenges Māori face when seeking finance to build homes on their whenua.

    “It’s about more than just providing loans; it’s about empowering our people to create sustainable, thriving communities on their whenua.”

    About Māori land trusts and incorporations

    Māori land trusts and incorporations play a crucial role in the management of Māori freehold land, which covers approximately 1.4 million hectares—about 5% of New Zealand’s land area. This differs from iwi-owned land, which is typically held by an iwi post settlement entity as a result of Treaty of Waitangi settlements.

    A significant portion of Māori freehold land is held in trusts and incorporations, which manage the land on behalf of multiple owners. These owners are generally connected through whakapapa (genealogy) and can number in the hundreds or even thousands for a single land block.

    The collective ownership structure of Māori land has historically posed challenges for lending. This, combined with restrictions on land transferability, including those in Te Ture Whenua Māori Act 1993, has created barriers to using Māori land as security for loans. As a result, whānau have faced significant obstacles in obtaining individual home loans on collectively owned land, impeding housing development on ancestral lands for generations.

    Overcoming barriers to lending

    To address this, the BNZ framework uses leasehold mortgage lending practices that align with Māori land ownership legislation and enshrines agreements that ensure property is controlled by the Māori land trust, incorporations and owners, which would take over in the event of a distressed mortgage.

    This approach balances the bank’s security requirements with the land rights of shareholders and beneficiaries of Māori land.

    BNZ CEO Dan Huggins says extending the framework is about supporting Māori aspirations.

    “Developing this framework has taken several years, requiring a significant amount of legal work, and a full understanding of the unique aspects of Māori land ownership. This model respects the collective ownership structures of Māori land and ensures that the land remains a taonga tuku iho—a treasure passed down through generations,” he says.

    “We’re proud that we’ve managed to develop a solution that not only can facilitate home ownership on whenua Māori but also acknowledges and protects the deep connection Māori have with their whenua. We hope this approach is the first of many innovative solutions enabling Māori home ownership.”

    The post New path to home ownership on Māori land: BNZ expands innovative funding framework appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Smokers have a higher level of harmful bacteria in the mouth – new study

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Yvonne Prince, PhD in Biomedical Science (Microbiology), Cape Peninsula University of Technology

    A recent report by the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that 8 million people die annually from smoking related complications. Despite efforts by governments and various organisations to create awareness about the dangers, around 1.3 billion people still use some form of tobacco and 80% of them live in low to middle income countries.

    There is no safe level of smoking. Even second-hand smoke can lead to serious complications such as cardiovascular disease and cancer.

    The mouth (oral cavity) is the first port of entry to the rest of the body and is home to a complex and diverse community of microorganisms, known as the oral microbiome. These organisms live in harmony with one another. They protect the normal oral environment, aid digestion, regulate the immune system and promote health.

    If this balance is disturbed however, it can lead to the development of periodontitis (gum infections), inflammation and serious diseases, such as heart disease, cancer, liver and renal disease.

    Changes to the bacterial composition of the mouth can be caused by several factors, such as bad oral hygiene, diet, alcohol and smoking.

    We’ve looked into exactly what types of bacteria are affected. Our research did this by examining the oral health of 128 individuals who had participated in a 2014/2016 study of vascular and metabolic health.

    We found clear differences in the bacteria present in the mouths of smokers compared to non-smokers.

    Smokers had higher levels of harmful bacteria – like Fusobacterium, Campylobacter and Tannerella forsythia – in their mouths.

    These bacteria can cause gum disease and may increase the risk of heart disease because they can trigger inflammation and other harmful effects in the body.

    How smoking affects the oral biome

    Tobacco and cigarettes contain several toxic substances which include nicotine, tar, radioactive chemicals, lead and ammonia. Many of these are formed from burning the tobacco. As a cigarette is smoked, these chemicals enter the oral cavity and change the surrounding environment by reducing oxygen levels, changing the pH (level of acidity) and preventing adequate production of saliva.

    Saliva not only keeps the mouth moist and helps digestion, but also has important antibacterial properties which assist in destroying dangerous germs and keeping the oral cavity healthy.

    A dry mouth together with low oxygen levels in the mouth allows harmful bacteria to multiply.

    The overgrowth of these organisms destroys the balance of the healthy bacteria normally found on the surfaces of the teeth, tongue and palate.

    Nicotine

    One common chemical found in cigarettes is nicotine. This toxin can increase the number of proteins on the surface of certain harmful bacteria such as P. gingivalis.

    These proteins or receptors give the bacteria an advantage over the normal microorganisms and allows them to attach firmly to surfaces where they multiply into colonies and form biofilms. Dental biofilms are a complex community of microorganisms which can form on the teeth and other hard surfaces. If not controlled, they can lead to plaque formation, periodontitis, gum disease and tooth decay.

    Smoking and serious diseases

    These abnormal colonies can influence the immune system, leading to slow healing, inflammation and even antibiotic resistance. The chronic inflammation caused by gum disease can lead to tooth loss and the destruction of gum tissue, which has been linked to systemic diseases such as cardiovascular disease.

    Another bacterium, Streptococcus mutans, can also become abundant in people who smoke heavily. This organism is often present in healthy conditions but when the environment is disrupted, it can multiply and form part of dental biofilms,
    leading to tooth decay and oral cancer.

    Vaping and e-cigarettes

    Electronic cigarettes or vapes operate with a battery and heating element which heats up a liquid. This produces an aerosol which is inhaled by the user. The liquid contains different flavourings as well as harmful chemicals such as nicotine and lead.

    Early research seems to suggest that e-cigarettes are not a good alternative to smoking tobacco. Although their effects on the oral microbiota have not been well studied, the increased growth of bacteria such as Fusobacterium and Bacteroidales has been observed in people who vape.

    Both of these bacteria can cause periodontitis (gum disease).

    Can these changes be reversed?

    It is clear that the harmful chemicals in cigarettes and other forms of tobacco can lead to serious diseases which often begin in the oral cavity. The good news is that these can be prevented and the risk reduced.

    Although it may take time, the healthy diversity of the oral biome can be restored by quitting smoking. This reduces the risk of gum disease, promotes the production of saliva and improves health.

    Prevention is better than cure and governments and organisations such as the WHO need to continue to create awareness around the dangers of smoking, particularly among the youth.

    Glenda Mary Davison receives funding from the National Research Foundation as the Interim DSI-NRF Nedbank SARChI chair.

    Tandi Matsha-Erasmus and Yvonne Prince do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Smokers have a higher level of harmful bacteria in the mouth – new study – https://theconversation.com/smokers-have-a-higher-level-of-harmful-bacteria-in-the-mouth-new-study-239250

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Children in west Africa are often sent to live with other families to help them get ahead – but fostering may be doing the opposite

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Pearl S. Kyei, Senior lecturer, University of Ghana

    In west Africa, it’s common for families to foster children informally. This helps ease the burden on parents and can give children from poorer families a chance to improve their lives.

    An estimated 20% to 40% of mothers in the region have sent at least one child to live with another household for an extended period. That household acts as a “social parent”.

    Education is one of the leading reasons for the practice: children can be in households with more resources for schooling or closer to schools.

    Whether this fostering is beneficial or harmful depends on how much the host families are willing to support and invest in the fostered children.

    The practice of child fostering differs from the formal foster care systems that are common in many parts of the world. Fostering arrangements in sub-Saharan Africa are typically informal and unregulated. Without legal or economic incentives, there’s a risk that host households may not be as invested in the welfare of fostered children, including their education, as they are in their own.

    My research studied the relationship between fostering and school attendance. I looked at how this has changed over time and whether it is affected by how wealthy a fostering household is.

    I found that in some west African countries, fostered children were less likely to attend school than children who were not fostered. And children fostered by wealthier households were the least likely to attend school compared to their non-fostered counterparts.

    The findings highlight the need to set up or improve systems to monitor how fostered children are doing. They also suggest more research is needed to understand fostering in wealthier families.

    Comparing change over time

    The research used data from five countries that conducted similar surveys about a decade apart, in 2005/06 and 2017/18. The countries were The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone and Togo.

    The sample comprised 86,803 children aged 6 to 12 whose biological parents were alive. The analysis compared school enrolment of fostered children with children who were not fostered over the two periods.

    In 2005/06, 16.7% of the children in the sample were fostered. In 2017/18, 19.4% were fostered.

    I expected to find that fostered children would be less likely to attend school than children who were not fostered. This is because it is possible that the purposes for which parents send their children away may not align exactly with the reasons the host households agree to have them.

    I also expected that the difference in school attendance between fostered and non-fostered children would decrease over time, because free primary education policies were being introduced.

    But instead, the findings showed that in 2017/18, children who were fostered were much less likely to have ever attended school than was the case in 2005/06. In 2017/18, fostered children were 0.49 times as likely to have ever attended school compared to children who were not fostered. In 2005/06, there was no difference between fostered and non-fostered children.

    I also expected that wealthier households would be able to invest more in children – both fostered and their own.

    However, this was not the case. It was only in the poorest hosting households that foster children were more likely to attend school in 2005/06 and in 2017/18 compared to children who were not fostered. In wealthier households, foster children faced greater disadvantages in school attendance as the household’s wealth increased.

    Worrying inequalities

    The findings are worrying because they suggest that wealthier families might take in children not necessarily to improve their welfare, but to use them for household chores. There is some research suggesting that households’ decisions to foster in children are driven by demand for child labour. This could prevent foster children from attending school regularly.

    It is also possible that poor parents might not have the power to step in if the wealthier hosting households are disrupting their children’s education.

    The results indicate that there has been an increase in the proportion of children who have ever attended school over the two periods. However, the finding that more than one-tenth of children in the sample have never attended school in the most recent period is suggestive of challenges in the implementation of free education policies.

    The challenges include:

    • competing demands for children’s time in households where child labour is required

    • the inability of households to pay for transport, books and uniforms.

    The observed disparity in school attendance by foster status, particularly for richer households, highlights inequality in education. This has implications for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 4, which targets equitable education. The African Union declared 2024 the Year of Education, further highlighting the importance of ensuring all children on the continent attend school.

    Pearl S. Kyei does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Children in west Africa are often sent to live with other families to help them get ahead – but fostering may be doing the opposite – https://theconversation.com/children-in-west-africa-are-often-sent-to-live-with-other-families-to-help-them-get-ahead-but-fostering-may-be-doing-the-opposite-239865

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Palestinians want to choose their own leaders – a year of war has distanced them further from this democratic goal

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Maha Nassar, Associate Professor in the School of Middle Eastern and North African Studies, University of Arizona

    A Palestinian university student casts a ballot in Gaza City in 2006. Abid Katib/Getty Images

    Over the summer as Israel continued to bombard Gaza, representatives from 14 Palestinian factions, including the two main parties – Hamas and Fatah – met in China. Following the most inclusive talks in years, all the parties agreed to a future unity government and to hold national elections.

    Such talk of “day after” governance may seem fanciful as the current war marks its first anniversary. The idea of holding Palestinian elections seems a long way off given the current destruction and humanitarian crisis, especially in the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, any democratic process including Hamas – whose leadership Israeli forces have spent a year trying to eliminate following the the group’s attack of Oct. 7, 2023 – would be vehemently opposed by Israel. As such, it should come as little surprise that 72% of Palestinians recently polled said they saw no hope of the provisions agreed to in China being implemented any time soon.

    But the alternative “day after” plan for Gaza reconstruction being pushed by the United States – “revitilzing” the Palestinian Authority, the Fatah-led body that semi-governs parts of the West Bank – also seems like a non-starter. Critics of that plan warn that a simple reshuffling of existing figures would further delegitimize the deeply unpopular authority.

    As a scholar of Palestinian history and politics, I see talk of reforming existing bodies or propping up a unity government made up of the same players as missing a larger point: Palestinians are increasingly frustrated by their political representation; they want the opportunity to choose their own leaders.

    Even before the attack of Oct. 7, surveys showed that Palestinians were dissatisfied with governance they viewed as corrupt and dysfunctional. And as the war drags into a second year, the latest polls indicate that support for Hamas has dropped moderately; yet support for its main rival, Fatah, has risen only slightly. More than a third of those polled do not support either party.

    Divided leadership

    Despite talk of a unity government, Palestinian leadership is as bitterly divided as it has been for decades.

    Following a brief conflict in 2007, the Palestinian Authority split into two. The secular Fatah party, led by Mahmoud Abbas, controlled the authority in the West Bank, while its Islamist rival, Hamas, governed in Gaza.

    Since then, Palestinian representatives have held over a dozen reconciliation talks to try to bridge the divide, the last taking place in Beijing in July 2024. While several of these meetings have yielded joint agreements, such as the recent “Beijing Declaration,” none have led to the different factions working more closely together.

    A generation of Palestinians have never experienced a national vote.
    Hani Alshaer/Anadolu via Getty Images

    The current Palestinian Authority president, 88-year-old Abbas, is especially unpopular. First elected in 2005 to a four-year term, he unilaterally extended his term in 2009, declaring he would remain in office until the next election. But he has not allowed elections to be held since then. Summing up the views of many, analyst Khaled Elgindy described Abbas today as “an erratic and small-minded authoritarian with a virtually unbroken record of failure.”

    That helps explain why, according to a September 2024 poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, 84% of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip want Abbas to resign.

    When asked about a hypothetical presidential election between the leaders of both Hamas and Fatah, 45% of Palestinians reported they would rather just sit out the election. The question had to be hypothetical – elections are not even on the horizon. In fact, Palestinians in the West Bank or Gaza have not voted in presidential or legislative elections since 2006. And three-quarters of Palestinians see no prospect of elections taking place any time soon.

    Absence of elections

    That pessimism among Palestinians over having a democratic say in how they are governed has grown in recent years. It has no doubt been knocked further by a year of relentless Israeli bombardment and internal political dysfunction.

    A glimmer of hope for greater democratic representation had appeared in January 2021, when Abbas announced that legislative elections would be held later that year.

    Many on the candidate lists then were third-party figures and independents. Young Palestinians were especially excited – half of all eligible voters would have been aged 18 to 33, and it would have been their first opportunity to chose leaders who could claim to speak for them.

    But with less than one month before election day, Abbas postponed the vote indefinitely. While he blamed Israel for the postponement, other Palestinians also pointed to interference from Egypt and Jordan.

    Palestinian men cast ballots in 2006, the last time Palestinians were able to vote in national elections.
    Menahem Kahana/AFP via Getty Images

    With no elections in sight, Palestinians have undertaken several grassroots initiatives to try to enact democratic reforms from the ground up.

    For example, in November 2022, a Palestinian Popular Conference was held in several cities. It called for reforming Palestinian institutions to be more democratically representative of the 14 million Palestinians living around the world. Meetings were held in Gaza and Haifa, and Palestinians from around the world joined in person and virtually.

    But Palestinian Authority forces in the West Bank violently cracked down on the gathering in Ramallah and detained several conference leaders. The harsh repression signaled to many that Abbas and the Palestinian Authority were scared of an alternative, democratically elected Palestinian leadership emerging.

    Maintaining the occupation

    Many Palestinians see Abbas and his government as a “puppet authority,” propped up by Israel and the United States.

    Despite its name, the body does not have the “authority” that governments typically have. It cannot collect its own taxes, control its own border or protect its own citizens. Rather, Israel collects taxes in the West Bank and decides when – and whether – to hand them over to the Palestinian Authority. Israel has to authorize what enters and exits the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

    And, as has been evident throughout the current war, the Israeli military has pretty much free rein to invade “Area A”, the parts of the West Bank that are supposed to be under full Palestinian Authority security control.

    Yet Palestinians in the West Bank are not even able to express their opposition to these measures. In recent years, the Palestinian Authority has grown increasingly repressive, arresting a growing number of Palestinians on political grounds.

    Moreover, in the year since the Oct. 7 attacks, the Palestinian Authority has allowed Israel to arrest and detain over 7,000 Palestinians in the West Bank. Many are held for months without charge or trial and subjected to widespread torture and sexual abuse, according to Israeli human rights group B’Tselem.

    As such, the Palestinian Authority is viewed by many Palestinians as little more than a “subcontractor” of the Israeli occupation.

    Looking ahead

    So what does the the “day after” the conflict look like for Palestinians, and their hopes for democratic political representation?

    The International Court of Justice’s recent ruling that Israel’s occupation is illegal and that settlers must withdraw from the West Bank has given added legitimacy to Palestinians’ demand to end the occupation once and for all.

    But a future Palestinian government will only be credible if it represents the will of the people.

    Mussa Abu Marzuk, a senior member of Hamas, signs the Beijing Declaration as China Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Fatah Vice Chairman Mahmoud al-Aloul look on.
    Pedro Pardo/AFP via Getty Images

    To be sure, holding Palestinian elections to achieve this aim would be difficult given the ongoing Israeli occupation and the widespread destruction in Gaza. But it is clear that elections are what Palestinians want. When elections were last touted in 2021, 93.3% of eligible voters registered – only to have their hopes later dashed.

    At the reconciliation talks held in Beijing, all 14 Palestinian parties agreed to “prepare for the holding of general elections under the supervision of the Palestinian Central Elections Committee as soon as possible.”

    While Israel, the U.S. and regional actors worry that elections could legitimize Hamas’ rule over the Gaza Strip, that would not necessarily be the case. The latest polls show that only 36% of respondents in Gaza said they would prefer that outcome.

    For now, many Palestinians believe the first step should be the formation of a national reconciliation government that can negotiate reconstruction.

    But to have any chance of succeeding, such a body would need to be Palestinian-led. A government consisting of the same old actors forced upon Palestinians by the U.S. or Israel would suffer from crippling legitimacy problems.

    One thing is certain: The death and destruction of the past year have shown that the old approaches to Palestinian politics have not worked. Perhaps it is time for a new approach, one that centers Palestinian representation.

    Maha Nassar was a 2022 Palestinian non-resident fellow at the Foundation for Middle East Peace and currently serves on its board of directors.

    – ref. Palestinians want to choose their own leaders – a year of war has distanced them further from this democratic goal – https://theconversation.com/palestinians-want-to-choose-their-own-leaders-a-year-of-war-has-distanced-them-further-from-this-democratic-goal-239463

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