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Category: Asia Pacific

  • MIL-OSI Video: DPRK: Continued to conduct launches of ballistic missiles – Briefing | United Nations

    Source: United Nations (Video News)

    Security Council briefing by Khaled Khiari, Assistant Secretary-General for the Middle East, Asia and the Pacific, on Non-proliferation/Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

    —————–
    This year marks the final year of the DPRK’s five-year military development plan (2021-2025). Throughout 2024 and early 2025, the DPRK has continued to conduct launches of ballistic missiles, including what it characterized as the “Hwasong-19” intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in October last year, and an intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile (IRBM) in January this year.

    According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the DPRK has continued its open displays of undeclared uranium enrichment facilities located in Yongbyon and Kangson. These events have been accompanied by statements reiterating the DPRK’s intention to further develop nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, including tactical nuclear warheads, military reconnaissance satellites, and the construction of a “nuclear-powered strategic missile submarine”.

    ————
    The DPRK’s persistent pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes, in violation of relevant Security Council resolutions, continues to undermine the global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime, and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) that underpins it. At this critical juncture, it remains as important as ever to continue to highlight the urgent need to reduce nuclear risk, prevent any use of a nuclear weapon and bring about their total elimination. We continue our strong calls on the DPRK to fully comply with its international obligations, including the NPT and IAEA safeguards, and to sign and ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

    ————-
    The broader security landscape on the Korean Peninsula remains tense, with heightened military activities, limited avenues for inter-Korean and regional dialogue, the presence of nuclear risks and growing concerns over the potential for miscalculation. The Secretary-General has consistently underscored that sustainable peace and the complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula must be anchored in dialogue and diplomacy. We welcome any efforts in this respect.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fx6pxyxML2c

    MIL OSI Video –

  • MIL-OSI USA: What NASA Is Learning from the Biggest Geomagnetic Storm in 20 Years

    Source: NASA

    One year on, NASA scientists are still making huge discoveries about the largest geomagnetic storm to hit Earth in two decades, the Gannon storm. The findings are helping us better understand and prepare for the ways in which the Sun’s activity can affect us.

    [embedded content]
    On May 10, 2024, the first G5 or “severe” geomagnetic storm in over two decades hit Earth. The event did not cause any catastrophic damages, but it did produce surprising effects on Earth. The storm, which has been called the best-documented geomagnetic storm in history, spread auroras to unusually low latitudes and produced effects spanning from the ground to near-Earth space. Data captured during this historic event will be analyzed for years to come, revealing new lessons about the nature of geomagnetic storms and how best to weather them. Credit: NASA/Joy Ng

    One year ago today, representatives from NASA and about 30 other U.S. government agencies gathered for a special meeting to simulate and address a threat looming in space. The threat was not an asteroid or aliens, but our very own life-giving Sun.
    The inaugural Space Weather Tabletop Exercise was supposed to be a training event, where experts could work through the real-time ramifications of a geomagnetic storm, a global disruption to Earth’s magnetic field. Driven by solar eruptions, geomagnetic storms can decimate satellites, overload electrical grids, and expose astronauts to dangerous radiation. Minimizing the impacts of such storms requires close coordination, and this meeting was their chance to practice.
    Then, their simulation turned into reality.
    “The plan was to run through a hypothetical scenario, finding where our existing processes worked and where they needed improvement,” said Jamie Favors, director of NASA’s Space Weather Program at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “But then our hypothetical scenario was interrupted by a very real one.”
    On May 10, 2024, the first G5 or “severe” geomagnetic storm in over two decades hit Earth. The event, named the Gannon storm in memory of leading space weather physicist Jennifer Gannon, did not cause any catastrophic damages. But a year on, key insights from the Gannon storm are helping us understand and prepare for future geomagnetic storms.

    The Gannon storm had effects on and off our planet.
    On the ground, some high-voltage lines tripped, transformers overheated, and GPS-guided tractors veered off-course in the Midwestern U.S., further disrupting planting that had already been delayed by heavy rains that spring.

    “Not all farms were affected, but those that were lost on average about $17,000 per farm,” said Terry Griffin, a professor of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University. “It’s not catastrophic, but they’ll miss it.”
    In the air, the threat of higher radiation exposure, as well as communication and navigation losses, forced trans-Atlantic flights to change course.

    During the storm, Earth’s upper atmospheric layer called the thermosphere heated to unusually high temperatures. At 100 miles altitude, the temperature typically peaks at 1,200 degrees Fahrenheit, but during the storm it surpassed 2,100 degrees Fahrenheit. NASA’s GOLD (Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk) mission observed the atmosphere expanding from the heat to create a strong wind that lofted heavy nitrogen particles higher.

    In orbit, the expanded atmosphere increased drag on thousands of satellites. NASA’s ICESat-2 lost altitude and entered safe mode while NASA’s Colorado Inner Radiation Belt Experiment (CIRBE) CubeSat deorbited prematurely five months after the storm. Others, such as the European Space Agency’s Sentinel mission, required more power to maintain their orbits and perform maneuvers to avoid collisions with space debris.
    The storm also dramatically changed the structure of an atmospheric layer called the ionosphere. A dense zone of the ionosphere that normally covers the equator at night dipped toward the South Pole in a check mark shape, causing a temporary gap near the equator.
    The Gannon storm also rocked Earth’s magnetosphere, the magnetic bubble surrounding the planet. Data from NASA missions MMS (Magnetospheric Multiscale) and THEMIS-ARTEMIS — short for Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions-Acceleration, Reconnection, Turbulence and Electrodynamics of the Moon’s Interaction with the Sun — saw giant, curling waves of particles and rolled-up magnetic fields along the edge of the CMEs. These waves were perfectly sized to periodically dump extra magnetic energy and mass into the magnetosphere upon impact, creating the largest electrical current seen in the magnetosphere in 20 years.
    Incoming energy and particles from the Sun also created two new temporary belts of energetic particles within the magnetosphere. Discovered by CIRBE, these belts formed between the Van Allen radiation belts that permanently surround Earth. The belt’s discovery is important to spacecraft and astronauts that can be imperiled by high-energy electrons and protons in the belts.

    The storm also ignited auroras around the globe, including places where these celestial light shows are rare. NASA’s Aurorasaurus project was flooded with more than 6,000 observer reports from over 55 countries and all seven continents.
    Photographers helped scientists understand why auroras observed throughout Japan were magenta rather than the typical red. Researchers studied hundreds of photos and found the auroras were surprisingly high — around 600 miles above the ground (200 miles higher than red auroras typically appear).

    In a paper published in the journal Scientific Reports, the research team says the peculiar color likely resulted from a mix of red and blue auroras, produced by oxygen and nitrogen molecules lofted higher than usual as the Gannon storm heated and expanded the upper atmosphere.
    “It typically needs some special circumstances, like we saw last May,” co-author Josh Pettit of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center said of Japan’s magenta auroras. “A very unique event indeed.”

    Impacts of the Sun’s amped-up solar activity didn’t end at Earth. The solar active region that sparked the Gannon storm eventually rotated away from our planet and redirected its outbursts toward Mars.
    As energetic particles from the Sun struck the Martian atmosphere, NASA’s MAVEN (Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution) orbiter watched auroras engulf the Red Planet from May 14 to 20.

    Solar particles overwhelmed the star camera on NASA’s 2001 Mars Odyssey orbiter (which uses stars to orient the spacecraft), causing the camera to cut out for almost an hour.
    On the Martian surface, images from the navigation cameras on NASA’s Curiosity rover were freckled with “snow” — streaks and specks caused by charged particles. Meanwhile, Curiosity’s Radiation Assessment Detector recorded the biggest surge of radiation since the rover landed in 2012. If astronauts had been there, they would have received a radiation dose of 8,100 micrograys — equivalent to 30 chest X-rays.

    The Gannon storm spread auroras to unusually low latitudes and has been called the best-documented geomagnetic storm in history. A year on, we have just begun unraveling its story. Data captured during this historic event will be analyzed for years to come, revealing new lessons about the nature of geomagnetic storms and how best to weather them.

    By Mara Johnson-Groh, Miles Hatfield, and Vanessa ThomasNASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Isabel Schnabel: Keeping a steady hand in an unsteady world

    Source: European Central Bank

    Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Hoover Monetary Policy Conference “Finishing the Job and New Challenges”, Stanford University

    Stanford, 10 May 2025

    Standard theory of monetary policy rests on a simple premise: a stable relationship between inflation and the output gap. This is the logic behind the Phillips curve, which, in its most common form, relates inflation to a measure of economic slack, expected inflation and supply shocks.[1]

    The relationship between output and inflation was already under scrutiny well before the pandemic.

    After the global financial crisis of 2008, inflation didn’t fall nearly as much as had been implied by conventional Phillips curve estimates. And once economies around the world recovered and unemployment fell, the bounce-back in inflation fell short of model predictions.

    This is why that episode is known as the period of “missing deflation” and “missing inflation”.[2]

    The situation changed fundamentally in the aftermath of the pandemic, when the relationship between inflation and the output gap proved to be much stronger than what would have been expected based on historical estimates. We observed a noticeably steeper Phillips curve across advanced economies, including the euro area (Slide 2).[3]

    In my remarks today, I would like to draw lessons from the instability of the Phillips curve over the past 20 years for the optimal conduct of monetary policy. I will argue that the evidence of a re-flattening of the Phillips curve after the long period of high inflation suggests that, in the euro area, the most appropriate policy response to the potential risks to price stability arising from fiscal expansion and protectionism is to keep a steady hand and maintain rates close to where they are today – that is, firmly in neutral territory.

    Monetary policy and the slope of the Phillips curve

    The slope of the Phillips curve has first-order implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

    If the curve is steep, as it appeared to be in recent years, monetary policy is highly effective in reducing inflation, with only a limited impact on growth and employment. The smaller “sacrifice ratio” suggests that central banks should react more forcefully to deviations of inflation from target, even when the economy is hit by a supply shock that pushes inflation up and output down.[4]

    A steep Phillips curve hence improves the trade-off facing central banks, weakening the case for “looking through”, as forceful policy action minimises the risks of inflation expectations unanchoring and of inflation becoming entrenched.[5]

    Policy prescriptions differ fundamentally if the Phillips curve is flat.

    In this case, a large policy impulse is required to move output sufficiently to generate aggregate price effects. It can then be optimal for policy to tolerate moderate deviations of inflation from target, as the cost of closing a small inflation gap relative to the target may exceed the benefits.

    This prescription holds in both directions.

    When inflation is above the target, a flat Phillips curve would require a sharp rise in policy rates to bring medium-term inflation down from, say, 2.3% to 2%. Such a course of action may imply a substantial rise in unemployment and may thus not be welfare-improving for society at large – a trade-off central banks may face during the last mile of disinflation.[6]

    The experience of the 2010s, when inflation was persistently below the target, demonstrates that the argument also holds in the opposite direction.

    If bringing inflation up from 1.7% to 2%, for example, requires purchasing a large fraction of outstanding government bonds and making potentially time-inconsistent promises about the future path of interest rates, then the central bank must consider carefully whether the benefits outweigh the costs, such as making losses in the future, market dysfunction, rising wealth inequality, financial instability and threats to its reputation.[7]

    The role of inflation expectations

    However, the ability to tolerate moderate deviations of inflation from target critically hinges on a firm anchoring of inflation expectations – that is, a low sensitivity of inflation expectations to realised inflation.

    If inflation expectations are well-anchored, policymakers can tolerate moderate deviations from target, as fluctuations in inflation tend to fade away. If, however, inflation expectations are at risk of unanchoring, central banks should act forcefully.[8]

    There are two challenges to this strategy.

    One is that the anchoring of inflation expectations is endogenous. Central banks themselves can cause an unanchoring if inaction in the face of price shocks is perceived as weakening its commitment to securing price stability.[9]

    History shows that it can be costly to reestablish the credibility of the nominal anchor once it has been lost. This is also because inflation expectations are path-dependent. Research shows that the experience of high inflation may raise the sensitivity of inflation expectations to new inflation surprises.[10]

    The other challenge is that different measures of inflation expectations often yield different results (Slide 3). As such, robust trends cannot easily be identified in real time, much like the slope of the Phillips curve.[11]

    Measures of inflation expectations can even point in opposite directions. Research from the early days of the pandemic showed that most consumers expected the pandemic to raise prices, contrary to the views held by professional forecasters at the time.[12]

    State-dependent pricing and tight labour markets can explain steeper Phillips curve and post-pandemic inflation surge

    The recent period of high inflation illustrates how sensitive policy conclusions can be to the assessment of the slope of the Phillips curve and to measures of inflation expectations that central banks use in their analysis.

    Two key theories have been proposed to explain the post-pandemic inflation surge.[13]

    The first relates to firms’ price-setting behaviour.

    Standard New Keynesian models assume that the probability of firms resetting their prices is constant over time. This is a fair description of aggregate price movements when inflation is low and aggregate shocks are small (Slide 4).

    However, the past few years have demonstrated that this “linear” relationship breaks down in the face of large shocks.[14] When marginal costs increase rapidly and threaten to erode profit margins, firms tend to raise their prices more frequently. As a result, the Phillips curve steepens.

    This feedback loop is strongly asymmetric.[15] It acts as an inflation accelerator when firms face positive demand or adverse cost-push shocks.[16] But it does little to firms’ pricing strategies in the face of disinflationary shocks due to downward price rigidities.

    This helps explain why inflation did not fall much when the pandemic broke out but increased sharply after the reopening of our economies (Slide 5).[17]

    The second theory relates to the tightness of the labour market.

    Downward nominal wage rigidity has been a key factor explaining the “missing deflation” in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.[18] If nominal wages do not fall, or fall only very slowly, firms’ marginal costs change only moderately, and hence disinflationary pressures face a natural lower bound, even if slack is large.

    But when the labour market is tight, wages are more flexible as firms outbid each other in securing their desired workforce.

    Benigno and Eggertsson show that this channel led to a non-linear inflation surge in the United States whenever the number of job vacancies exceeded the number of unemployed workers (Slide 6).[19] In the euro area, the threshold was lower, but the curve still exhibited strong signs of non-linearity.

    Rising near-term inflation expectations may have shifted the Phillips curve up

    New research for the United States, however, suggests that the evidence in favour of the second theory is not very robust.

    Specifically, the finding of non-linearity depends critically on which measure is used to control for inflation expectations: non-linearity holds when controlling for expectations of professional forecasters, but it disappears once inflation expectations of households and firms are considered.[20]

    In other words, it is conceivable that the Phillips curve did not become steeper but rather shifted upwards as inflation expectations rose.[21] Non-linearity has also been rejected recently using a similar approach based on regional data for the euro area.[22]

    Moreover, the expectations that are relevant for such an upward shift are not necessarily the longer-term expectations that central banks typically pay most attention to.

    These have remained remarkably stable over the past few years (Slide 7).

    Rather, inflation expectations over the near term, such as the next 12 months, may be more important in driving macroeconomic outcomes.

    Bernanke and Blanchard, for example, show that one-year-ahead inflation expectations explain a significant share of the recent marked rise in nominal wages, and hence inflation, in the United States.[23] Similar evidence has been found for the euro area and other advanced economies.[24]

    Again, there appears to be an asymmetry: the risks that the Phillips curve shifts downwards are substantially lower. Research shows that consumers tend to respond more to inflationary than disinflationary news, as households value increases in their purchasing power and as they pay less attention to inflation when it is low.[25]

    The impact of tariffs on inflation in the euro area

    Understanding the reasons behind the recent inflation surge is not only important from a conceptual perspective. It also matters for setting monetary policy today, as we are once again confronted with historically large shocks.

    For central banks, this is a difficult environment to navigate.

    Memories of high inflation are still fresh after a long period of sharply rising prices. And just as during the pandemic, there is considerable uncertainty about how firms and households are going to respond to shocks that are largely outside the historical empirical range.

    Ultimately, the impact of current shocks on prices and wages, and hence the appropriate monetary policy response, will depend on the shape and location of the Phillips curve.

    Monetary policy should focus on the medium term and underlying inflation

    Let me illustrate this by looking at the euro area.

    Given the lags in policy transmission, the relevant horizon for monetary policy is the medium term. The past few years, however, demonstrated that inflation forecasting at times of large structural shocks is inherently difficult and plagued by large uncertainty.

    For this reason, the ECB and other central banks have increasingly turned to a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, where the observed dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary transmission are used to cross-check the inflation projections.[26]

    This approach remains valid today.[27] But data dependence is not in contrast to being forward-looking.

    In the current situation, the high level of economic uncertainty, together with the sharp fall in energy prices and a stronger euro exchange rate, will likely dampen headline inflation in the short run, potentially pushing it below our 2% target.

    The question is whether these developments provide meaningful signals about the net impact of current shocks on medium-term inflation.

    During the pandemic, for example, a strong appreciation of the euro against the US dollar, by nearly 14% over seven months, and a marked decline in energy prices were followed by a historical inflation surge.

    Data dependency hence requires examining the potential channels through which current shocks could affect underlying inflation over the medium term.

    In the euro area, there are two main forces that could have the size and persistence to pull underlying inflation sustainably away from our 2% medium-term target.

    One is fiscal policy, which is set to expand on a scale unseen outside periods of deep economic contraction.

    Germany has eased its constitutional debt brake for defence-related spending, and has committed to spending €500 billion, or more than 10% of GDP, on infrastructure and the green transition over the next 12 years. In addition, the European Commission has invited Member States to activate the national escape clause to accommodate increased defence expenditure across the EU.

    The impact of these measures on inflation will depend on how they are implemented, especially their impact on the supply side of the economy. But on balance, the fiscal impulse is likely to put upward pressure on underlying inflation over the medium term.

    Global fragmentation is the second force that could have a lasting impact on prices and wages.

    As we speak, the scale and scope of tariffs, the extent of retaliation as well as how financial markets respond to these developments all remain highly uncertain.

    Ongoing negotiations are a sign that mutually beneficial agreements may still be reached. An ideal outcome – the “zero-for-zero” tariff agreement advocated by the European Commission – could even boost growth and employment on both sides of the Atlantic.

    However, should these negotiations fail, the euro area will simultaneously face adverse supply and demand shocks, as the EU has announced that it will retaliate against higher tariffs.

    Similar to the pandemic, assessing the relative strength of these forces is inherently difficult. Overall, however, there are risks that a lasting and meaningful increase in tariffs will reinforce the upward pressure on underlying inflation arising from higher fiscal spending over the medium term.

    To see this, it is useful to look at the factors driving the macroeconomic propagation of tariffs.

    Euro area foreign demand may prove resilient, with limited effects on inflation

    The severity of the negative demand shock will depend on two factors.

    One is the hit to economic activity in the United States and to global demand from raising tariffs across the board. Under the 2 April tariff rates, the United States will face a supply shock of historic proportions. Inflation is poised to rise, real incomes to fall and unemployment to increase. Retaliatory tariffs would weaken the economy further.

    So even in the absence of demand reallocation, foreign demand can be expected to decline if there is a broad increase in tariffs. The depth and persistence of this decline will also depend on other policies, such as tax and spending cuts and deregulation.

    And it will crucially depend on the final outcome of tariff negotiations, which is likely to be far less severe than the 2 April announcement.

    The second factor affecting the severity of the demand shock relates to the degree of demand reallocation – that is, the elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic products. This elasticity is highly uncertain and varies across industries, products and countries.[28]

    However, a robust finding in the literature is that products that are more differentiated tend to be relatively price-inelastic, as they are more difficult to substitute.

    This has great relevance for the euro area, where the bulk of exports to the United States comprise pharmaceuticals, machinery, vehicles and chemicals. These goods are typically highly differentiated (Slide 8, left-hand side).

    For instance, the supply of machines for producing semiconductors is basically monopolised by one Dutch company. Similarly, banknotes in the United States are overwhelmingly printed using machinery from a single German manufacturer.

    These and other machines are not easy to replace in the short run, giving euro area exporters leverage to pass higher costs on to foreign importers and limiting the hit to foreign demand.

    In addition, trade diversion may benefit euro area exports.

    Should prohibitive tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place, they will measurably raise the euro area’s price competitiveness in the US market. This can be expected to stimulate demand for euro area goods if there are no alternatives in the United States itself, especially as the number of industries in which both Chinese and euro area firms have comparative advantages has increased measurably over the past two decades (Slide 8, right-hand side).[29]

    New research corroborates this view.[30] It finds that the euro area stands to win in relative terms from a global trade war, as its net exports to the world will rise rather than fall as global demand is reallocated across the global network, offsetting the hit to domestic consumption.[31]

    In other words, for as long as tariffs are not prohibitive to trade and the uncertainty paralysing activity fades, aggregate euro area foreign demand may prove relatively resilient under a range of potential tariff outcomes.

    The recent appreciation of the euro does not refute this view.

    The euro has gone through two distinct phases since the US presidential election in November last year. It first depreciated in nominal effective terms by 3% until mid-February, before starting to appreciate. So, in net terms, the euro is trading just 2.6% above last year’s average.

    In addition, as most exports to the United States are invoiced in US dollars, the pass-through of changes in the exchange rate to import prices tends to be moderate – by recent estimates just about one-fifth.[32] And potential losses in price competitiveness in third countries are in part compensated by lower import costs, as euro area exports have, on average, a large import content.

    This price inelasticity is also reflected in recent surveys, with manufacturing firms reporting an expansion in output for the first time in more than two years (Slide 9). Also, fewer firms are reporting falling export orders.

    Even if part of these developments may reflect frontloading by firms, it is remarkable how resilient sentiment has remained in the face of the extraordinary increase in economic uncertainty.

    Supply shock puts upward pressure on inflation, reinforced by global supply chains

    The downward effects on inflation caused by lower demand are likely to be offset, partly or even fully, by the supply shock hitting the euro area through retaliatory tariffs imposed by the EU and other economies.

    The strength of this supply shock also depends on two factors.

    One is the extent to which firms pass higher tariffs on to consumers.

    In the United States, evidence from the 2018 tariff increase suggests that, in most cases, the pass-through to import prices was de facto complete.[33] At the same time, many firms chose to absorb part of the increase in import prices in their profit margins, thereby limiting the increase in consumer price inflation, at least in the short run.[34]

    Whether firms will respond similarly to a renewed rise in tariffs in the current environment is uncertain.

    On the one hand, the recent appreciation of the euro, if persistent, provides some margin for euro area firms to buffer cost increases from retaliatory tariffs. On the other hand, profit margins have already been squeezed by high wage growth and a sluggish economy, and the post-pandemic inflation surge may have lowered the bar for firms to pass higher costs on to consumers.

    Overall, recent surveys of companies in the United States and the euro area suggest that they plan to gradually pass higher tariffs on to consumers over the coming years.[35]

    In addition, in order to compensate for the hit to input costs, firms also tend to raise the prices of goods not directly affected by tariffs. There is evidence that retailers broadly adjust price markups even if only a subset of wholesale prices change.[36]

    The second, and related, factor determining the strength of the supply shock relates to global value chains.

    Unlike during the wave of protectionism in the 1930s, today the dominant share of international trade, about 70%, reflects multinational firms distributing production across countries and along the value chain to minimise costs. In this process, parts and components often cross borders many times.

    Prohibitive tariffs between the United States and China are already disrupting supply chains. Shipments of goods are declining, potentially causing future shortages of critical intermediate goods that could reverberate across the world.

    While current conditions are very different from those seen during the pandemic, when supply chain disruptions were a main factor driving the surge in inflation, the impact of tariffs is likely to be amplified as the increase in firms’ marginal costs propagates through the production network.

    ECB staff analysis shows that, even if the EU does not retaliate, higher production costs transmitted through global value chains could more than offset the disinflationary pressure coming from lower foreign demand, making tariffs inflationary overall (Slide 10, left-hand side).[37]

    These effects will become stronger with full retaliation, including intermediate goods. So far, the EU’s retaliatory measures have disproportionately targeted final consumer goods, such as beverages, food and home appliances – precisely to avoid broader cost effects being transmitted through value chains (Slide 10, right-hand side).

    But if the trade conflict intensifies, the scale of retaliation will widen and increasingly include intermediate goods, as these account for nearly 70% of euro area imports from the United States.

    In other words, retaliatory tariffs on intermediate goods would constitute a much broader cost-push shock for euro area firms, reminiscent of the post-pandemic supply chain disruptions.[38]

    It is possible that these effects will be mitigated by China redirecting goods originally destined for the United States towards the euro area and other economies at a discount.

    In practice, however, this mitigation channel is likely to be contained. India, for example, has already raised temporary tariffs on China to curb a surge in imports. Similarly, the European Commission has repeatedly clarified that it intends to protect euro area firms against dumping prices should imports from China rise significantly in response to the evolving trade conflict with the United States.[39]

    Policy implications

    How, then, should the ECB respond to the current shocks?

    The lessons from the post-pandemic surge in inflation suggest that, from today’s perspective, the appropriate course of action is to keep rates close to where they are today – that is, firmly in neutral territory.

    A “steady hand” policy provides the best insurance against a wide range of potential outcomes. In other words, it is robust to many contingencies.

    Specifically, it avoids reacting excessively to volatility in headline inflation at a time when domestic inflation remains sticky and new forces are putting upward pressure on underlying inflation over the medium term. Given lags in policy transmission, an accommodative policy stance could amplify risks to medium-term price stability.

    This steady hand policy also avoids overreacting to concerns that tariffs may destabilise inflation expectations once again.

    In recent months, households’ short-term inflation expectations have reversed and started rising again. According to the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey, expectations for inflation one year ahead increased to 2.9% in March from their trough of 2.4% in September 2024 (Slide 11, left-hand side). Qualitative inflation expectations, as measured by the European Commission, even rose to levels last seen in late 2022 (Slide 11, right-hand side).

    Currently, there are no indications that this rise is persistent, or that inflation expectations are at risk of unanchoring.

    Hence, we can afford to look through the rise in short-term inflation expectations. This could change if we see clear signs of a strong and front-loaded pass-through of potential tariff increases – something that could bring us back to the steep part of the Phillips curve. So far, however, evidence suggests that firms have notably slowed the frequency with which they revise their prices.

    A steady hand policy also addresses risks of a more substantial decline in aggregate demand in response to the trade conflict.

    If tight labour markets were the main culprit for the recent steepening of the Phillips curve, risks of a sharp decline in inflation caused by a rise in unemployment are much more moderate today.

    The reason for this is that in both the United States and the euro area, the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio has fallen markedly and is now at a level that suggests that labour markets are much more balanced (Slide 12).

    We are thus likely to be operating close to, or at, the flat part of the Phillips curve where a change in unemployment has only limited effects on underlying inflation, in stark contrast to the high inflation period.[40]

    We would only need to react more forcefully to the tariff shock if we observed a sharp deterioration in labour market conditions or an unanchoring of inflation expectations to the downside.

    Both seem unlikely at the current juncture.

    Despite the number of vacancies declining, the euro area labour market has proven resilient, with unemployment at a record low. And most measures of medium-term inflation expectations remain tilted to the upside, including those of professional forecasters (Slide 13).

    Conclusion

    My main message today, and with this I would like to conclude, is therefore simple: now is the time to keep a steady hand.

    In the current environment of elevated volatility, the ECB needs to remain focused on the medium term. Given long and variable transmission lags, reacting to short-term developments could result in the peak impact of our policy only unfolding when the current disinflationary forces have passed.

    Over the medium term, risks to euro area inflation are likely tilted to the upside, reflecting both the increase in fiscal spending and the risks of renewed cost-push shocks from tariffs propagating through global value chains.

    Therefore, from today’s perspective, an accommodative monetary policy stance would be inappropriate, also because recent inflation data suggest that past shocks may unwind more slowly than previously anticipated.

    By keeping interest rates near their current levels, we can be confident that monetary policy is neither excessively holding back growth and employment, nor stimulating it. We are thus in a good place to evaluate the likely future evolution of the economy and to take action if risks materialise that threaten price stability.

    Thank you.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Committee marks 30th anniversary of Agreement on Import Licensing Procedures

    Source: World Trade Organization

    To mark the anniversary, the WTO Secretariat made a presentation on the history of import licensing in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the WTO, as well as the Committee’s role in overseeing implementation of the Agreement on Import Licensing Procedures. Several former Chairpersons also shared their reflections and experiences from their time in office in video remarks presented to the meeting.

    Import licensing refers to administrative procedures requiring the submission of an application or other documentation to relevant authorities as a prior condition for importing goods into a country. These procedures can be either automatic or non-automatic.

    The Agreement aims to ensure that import licensing systems are transparent, predictable and do not create unnecessary barriers to trade. Members are required to publish all rules and information concerning import licensing procedures to enable traders to understand them and ensure that these remain neutral and no more administratively burdensome than necessary. 

    In its presentation, the Secretariat noted that, over the past 30 years, WTO members have submitted nearly 2,500 notifications related to import licensing measures. The Committee had held 60 formal meetings, during which more than 350 questions and replies were exchanged and a total of 176 new and recurring trade concerns were raised.

    The Committee has also worked to enhance transparency and compliance, including by clarifying notification requirements and developing improved notification templates for import licensing legislation. It has also overseen the creation of a public website and database on licensing procedures notified by members as well as an online Notification Portal and Database for all notification requirements under the Agreement.

    Notifications

    The Chair of the Committee, Tyesha Turner of Jamaica, informed members that since the last Committee meeting in November 2024, a total of 38 notifications had been received under various provisions of the Agreement. The Chair emphasized that members have to notify their import licensing regulations and changes to these regulations within 60 days of publication.

    In addition, 19 notifications were submitted under Article 7.3 of the Agreement (which mandates members to complete the annual questionnaire on import licensing procedures promptly and in full) since the last Committee meeting, the Chair said.

    The Chair noted that 21 WTO members have yet to submit a single reply to the annual questionnaire since joining the WTO, and 13 members have never submitted any notification under the Agreement. While these figures have seen only marginal changes in recent years, she encouraged members to consider engaging with their notification obligations and to seek support from the Secretariat where needed.

    Specific trade concerns

    The Committee addressed a record 12 trade concerns at the 8 May meeting, covering the import licensing regimes of various products:

    • Egypt’s import licensing requirements for certain agricultural and processed products, raised by the European Union;
    • India’s quality control for plywood and wooden flush door shutters, raised by Indonesia;
    • India’s importation of pneumatic tyres, raised by Indonesia, Chinese Taipei and Thailand;
    • India’s import of viscose staple fibre, raised by Indonesia;
    • India’s import licensing measures on personal computers, tablets and other electronic products, raised by Japan;
    • Indonesia’s commodity balancing mechanism, raised by the European Union and Japan;
    • Indonesia’s import licensing regime for certain textile products, raised by the European Union and Japan;
    • Indonesia’s compulsory registration by importers of steel products, raised by Japan;
    • Indonesia’s import restriction on air conditioners, raised by Japan;
    • Indonesia’s importer registration requests for agricultural, food and drink products, raised by the United Kingdom;
    • Mongolia’s new import licensing requirements for alcoholic beverages, raised by the United Kingdom;
    • Türkiye’s import restrictions on two wheelers, raised by India.

    Next meeting

    The Chair said the next Committee meeting is tentatively scheduled for 10 October 2025.

    Share

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Banking: Isabel Schnabel: Keeping a steady hand in an unsteady world

    Source: European Central Bank

    Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Hoover Monetary Policy Conference “Finishing the Job and New Challenges”, Stanford University

    Stanford, 10 May 2025

    Standard theory of monetary policy rests on a simple premise: a stable relationship between inflation and the output gap. This is the logic behind the Phillips curve, which, in its most common form, relates inflation to a measure of economic slack, expected inflation and supply shocks.[1]

    The relationship between output and inflation was already under scrutiny well before the pandemic.

    After the global financial crisis of 2008, inflation didn’t fall nearly as much as had been implied by conventional Phillips curve estimates. And once economies around the world recovered and unemployment fell, the bounce-back in inflation fell short of model predictions.

    This is why that episode is known as the period of “missing deflation” and “missing inflation”.[2]

    The situation changed fundamentally in the aftermath of the pandemic, when the relationship between inflation and the output gap proved to be much stronger than what would have been expected based on historical estimates. We observed a noticeably steeper Phillips curve across advanced economies, including the euro area (Slide 2).[3]

    In my remarks today, I would like to draw lessons from the instability of the Phillips curve over the past 20 years for the optimal conduct of monetary policy. I will argue that the evidence of a re-flattening of the Phillips curve after the long period of high inflation suggests that, in the euro area, the most appropriate policy response to the potential risks to price stability arising from fiscal expansion and protectionism is to keep a steady hand and maintain rates close to where they are today – that is, firmly in neutral territory.

    Monetary policy and the slope of the Phillips curve

    The slope of the Phillips curve has first-order implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

    If the curve is steep, as it appeared to be in recent years, monetary policy is highly effective in reducing inflation, with only a limited impact on growth and employment. The smaller “sacrifice ratio” suggests that central banks should react more forcefully to deviations of inflation from target, even when the economy is hit by a supply shock that pushes inflation up and output down.[4]

    A steep Phillips curve hence improves the trade-off facing central banks, weakening the case for “looking through”, as forceful policy action minimises the risks of inflation expectations unanchoring and of inflation becoming entrenched.[5]

    Policy prescriptions differ fundamentally if the Phillips curve is flat.

    In this case, a large policy impulse is required to move output sufficiently to generate aggregate price effects. It can then be optimal for policy to tolerate moderate deviations of inflation from target, as the cost of closing a small inflation gap relative to the target may exceed the benefits.

    This prescription holds in both directions.

    When inflation is above the target, a flat Phillips curve would require a sharp rise in policy rates to bring medium-term inflation down from, say, 2.3% to 2%. Such a course of action may imply a substantial rise in unemployment and may thus not be welfare-improving for society at large – a trade-off central banks may face during the last mile of disinflation.[6]

    The experience of the 2010s, when inflation was persistently below the target, demonstrates that the argument also holds in the opposite direction.

    If bringing inflation up from 1.7% to 2%, for example, requires purchasing a large fraction of outstanding government bonds and making potentially time-inconsistent promises about the future path of interest rates, then the central bank must consider carefully whether the benefits outweigh the costs, such as making losses in the future, market dysfunction, rising wealth inequality, financial instability and threats to its reputation.[7]

    The role of inflation expectations

    However, the ability to tolerate moderate deviations of inflation from target critically hinges on a firm anchoring of inflation expectations – that is, a low sensitivity of inflation expectations to realised inflation.

    If inflation expectations are well-anchored, policymakers can tolerate moderate deviations from target, as fluctuations in inflation tend to fade away. If, however, inflation expectations are at risk of unanchoring, central banks should act forcefully.[8]

    There are two challenges to this strategy.

    One is that the anchoring of inflation expectations is endogenous. Central banks themselves can cause an unanchoring if inaction in the face of price shocks is perceived as weakening its commitment to securing price stability.[9]

    History shows that it can be costly to reestablish the credibility of the nominal anchor once it has been lost. This is also because inflation expectations are path-dependent. Research shows that the experience of high inflation may raise the sensitivity of inflation expectations to new inflation surprises.[10]

    The other challenge is that different measures of inflation expectations often yield different results (Slide 3). As such, robust trends cannot easily be identified in real time, much like the slope of the Phillips curve.[11]

    Measures of inflation expectations can even point in opposite directions. Research from the early days of the pandemic showed that most consumers expected the pandemic to raise prices, contrary to the views held by professional forecasters at the time.[12]

    State-dependent pricing and tight labour markets can explain steeper Phillips curve and post-pandemic inflation surge

    The recent period of high inflation illustrates how sensitive policy conclusions can be to the assessment of the slope of the Phillips curve and to measures of inflation expectations that central banks use in their analysis.

    Two key theories have been proposed to explain the post-pandemic inflation surge.[13]

    The first relates to firms’ price-setting behaviour.

    Standard New Keynesian models assume that the probability of firms resetting their prices is constant over time. This is a fair description of aggregate price movements when inflation is low and aggregate shocks are small (Slide 4).

    However, the past few years have demonstrated that this “linear” relationship breaks down in the face of large shocks.[14] When marginal costs increase rapidly and threaten to erode profit margins, firms tend to raise their prices more frequently. As a result, the Phillips curve steepens.

    This feedback loop is strongly asymmetric.[15] It acts as an inflation accelerator when firms face positive demand or adverse cost-push shocks.[16] But it does little to firms’ pricing strategies in the face of disinflationary shocks due to downward price rigidities.

    This helps explain why inflation did not fall much when the pandemic broke out but increased sharply after the reopening of our economies (Slide 5).[17]

    The second theory relates to the tightness of the labour market.

    Downward nominal wage rigidity has been a key factor explaining the “missing deflation” in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.[18] If nominal wages do not fall, or fall only very slowly, firms’ marginal costs change only moderately, and hence disinflationary pressures face a natural lower bound, even if slack is large.

    But when the labour market is tight, wages are more flexible as firms outbid each other in securing their desired workforce.

    Benigno and Eggertsson show that this channel led to a non-linear inflation surge in the United States whenever the number of job vacancies exceeded the number of unemployed workers (Slide 6).[19] In the euro area, the threshold was lower, but the curve still exhibited strong signs of non-linearity.

    Rising near-term inflation expectations may have shifted the Phillips curve up

    New research for the United States, however, suggests that the evidence in favour of the second theory is not very robust.

    Specifically, the finding of non-linearity depends critically on which measure is used to control for inflation expectations: non-linearity holds when controlling for expectations of professional forecasters, but it disappears once inflation expectations of households and firms are considered.[20]

    In other words, it is conceivable that the Phillips curve did not become steeper but rather shifted upwards as inflation expectations rose.[21] Non-linearity has also been rejected recently using a similar approach based on regional data for the euro area.[22]

    Moreover, the expectations that are relevant for such an upward shift are not necessarily the longer-term expectations that central banks typically pay most attention to.

    These have remained remarkably stable over the past few years (Slide 7).

    Rather, inflation expectations over the near term, such as the next 12 months, may be more important in driving macroeconomic outcomes.

    Bernanke and Blanchard, for example, show that one-year-ahead inflation expectations explain a significant share of the recent marked rise in nominal wages, and hence inflation, in the United States.[23] Similar evidence has been found for the euro area and other advanced economies.[24]

    Again, there appears to be an asymmetry: the risks that the Phillips curve shifts downwards are substantially lower. Research shows that consumers tend to respond more to inflationary than disinflationary news, as households value increases in their purchasing power and as they pay less attention to inflation when it is low.[25]

    The impact of tariffs on inflation in the euro area

    Understanding the reasons behind the recent inflation surge is not only important from a conceptual perspective. It also matters for setting monetary policy today, as we are once again confronted with historically large shocks.

    For central banks, this is a difficult environment to navigate.

    Memories of high inflation are still fresh after a long period of sharply rising prices. And just as during the pandemic, there is considerable uncertainty about how firms and households are going to respond to shocks that are largely outside the historical empirical range.

    Ultimately, the impact of current shocks on prices and wages, and hence the appropriate monetary policy response, will depend on the shape and location of the Phillips curve.

    Monetary policy should focus on the medium term and underlying inflation

    Let me illustrate this by looking at the euro area.

    Given the lags in policy transmission, the relevant horizon for monetary policy is the medium term. The past few years, however, demonstrated that inflation forecasting at times of large structural shocks is inherently difficult and plagued by large uncertainty.

    For this reason, the ECB and other central banks have increasingly turned to a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, where the observed dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary transmission are used to cross-check the inflation projections.[26]

    This approach remains valid today.[27] But data dependence is not in contrast to being forward-looking.

    In the current situation, the high level of economic uncertainty, together with the sharp fall in energy prices and a stronger euro exchange rate, will likely dampen headline inflation in the short run, potentially pushing it below our 2% target.

    The question is whether these developments provide meaningful signals about the net impact of current shocks on medium-term inflation.

    During the pandemic, for example, a strong appreciation of the euro against the US dollar, by nearly 14% over seven months, and a marked decline in energy prices were followed by a historical inflation surge.

    Data dependency hence requires examining the potential channels through which current shocks could affect underlying inflation over the medium term.

    In the euro area, there are two main forces that could have the size and persistence to pull underlying inflation sustainably away from our 2% medium-term target.

    One is fiscal policy, which is set to expand on a scale unseen outside periods of deep economic contraction.

    Germany has eased its constitutional debt brake for defence-related spending, and has committed to spending €500 billion, or more than 10% of GDP, on infrastructure and the green transition over the next 12 years. In addition, the European Commission has invited Member States to activate the national escape clause to accommodate increased defence expenditure across the EU.

    The impact of these measures on inflation will depend on how they are implemented, especially their impact on the supply side of the economy. But on balance, the fiscal impulse is likely to put upward pressure on underlying inflation over the medium term.

    Global fragmentation is the second force that could have a lasting impact on prices and wages.

    As we speak, the scale and scope of tariffs, the extent of retaliation as well as how financial markets respond to these developments all remain highly uncertain.

    Ongoing negotiations are a sign that mutually beneficial agreements may still be reached. An ideal outcome – the “zero-for-zero” tariff agreement advocated by the European Commission – could even boost growth and employment on both sides of the Atlantic.

    However, should these negotiations fail, the euro area will simultaneously face adverse supply and demand shocks, as the EU has announced that it will retaliate against higher tariffs.

    Similar to the pandemic, assessing the relative strength of these forces is inherently difficult. Overall, however, there are risks that a lasting and meaningful increase in tariffs will reinforce the upward pressure on underlying inflation arising from higher fiscal spending over the medium term.

    To see this, it is useful to look at the factors driving the macroeconomic propagation of tariffs.

    Euro area foreign demand may prove resilient, with limited effects on inflation

    The severity of the negative demand shock will depend on two factors.

    One is the hit to economic activity in the United States and to global demand from raising tariffs across the board. Under the 2 April tariff rates, the United States will face a supply shock of historic proportions. Inflation is poised to rise, real incomes to fall and unemployment to increase. Retaliatory tariffs would weaken the economy further.

    So even in the absence of demand reallocation, foreign demand can be expected to decline if there is a broad increase in tariffs. The depth and persistence of this decline will also depend on other policies, such as tax and spending cuts and deregulation.

    And it will crucially depend on the final outcome of tariff negotiations, which is likely to be far less severe than the 2 April announcement.

    The second factor affecting the severity of the demand shock relates to the degree of demand reallocation – that is, the elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic products. This elasticity is highly uncertain and varies across industries, products and countries.[28]

    However, a robust finding in the literature is that products that are more differentiated tend to be relatively price-inelastic, as they are more difficult to substitute.

    This has great relevance for the euro area, where the bulk of exports to the United States comprise pharmaceuticals, machinery, vehicles and chemicals. These goods are typically highly differentiated (Slide 8, left-hand side).

    For instance, the supply of machines for producing semiconductors is basically monopolised by one Dutch company. Similarly, banknotes in the United States are overwhelmingly printed using machinery from a single German manufacturer.

    These and other machines are not easy to replace in the short run, giving euro area exporters leverage to pass higher costs on to foreign importers and limiting the hit to foreign demand.

    In addition, trade diversion may benefit euro area exports.

    Should prohibitive tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place, they will measurably raise the euro area’s price competitiveness in the US market. This can be expected to stimulate demand for euro area goods if there are no alternatives in the United States itself, especially as the number of industries in which both Chinese and euro area firms have comparative advantages has increased measurably over the past two decades (Slide 8, right-hand side).[29]

    New research corroborates this view.[30] It finds that the euro area stands to win in relative terms from a global trade war, as its net exports to the world will rise rather than fall as global demand is reallocated across the global network, offsetting the hit to domestic consumption.[31]

    In other words, for as long as tariffs are not prohibitive to trade and the uncertainty paralysing activity fades, aggregate euro area foreign demand may prove relatively resilient under a range of potential tariff outcomes.

    The recent appreciation of the euro does not refute this view.

    The euro has gone through two distinct phases since the US presidential election in November last year. It first depreciated in nominal effective terms by 3% until mid-February, before starting to appreciate. So, in net terms, the euro is trading just 2.6% above last year’s average.

    In addition, as most exports to the United States are invoiced in US dollars, the pass-through of changes in the exchange rate to import prices tends to be moderate – by recent estimates just about one-fifth.[32] And potential losses in price competitiveness in third countries are in part compensated by lower import costs, as euro area exports have, on average, a large import content.

    This price inelasticity is also reflected in recent surveys, with manufacturing firms reporting an expansion in output for the first time in more than two years (Slide 9). Also, fewer firms are reporting falling export orders.

    Even if part of these developments may reflect frontloading by firms, it is remarkable how resilient sentiment has remained in the face of the extraordinary increase in economic uncertainty.

    Supply shock puts upward pressure on inflation, reinforced by global supply chains

    The downward effects on inflation caused by lower demand are likely to be offset, partly or even fully, by the supply shock hitting the euro area through retaliatory tariffs imposed by the EU and other economies.

    The strength of this supply shock also depends on two factors.

    One is the extent to which firms pass higher tariffs on to consumers.

    In the United States, evidence from the 2018 tariff increase suggests that, in most cases, the pass-through to import prices was de facto complete.[33] At the same time, many firms chose to absorb part of the increase in import prices in their profit margins, thereby limiting the increase in consumer price inflation, at least in the short run.[34]

    Whether firms will respond similarly to a renewed rise in tariffs in the current environment is uncertain.

    On the one hand, the recent appreciation of the euro, if persistent, provides some margin for euro area firms to buffer cost increases from retaliatory tariffs. On the other hand, profit margins have already been squeezed by high wage growth and a sluggish economy, and the post-pandemic inflation surge may have lowered the bar for firms to pass higher costs on to consumers.

    Overall, recent surveys of companies in the United States and the euro area suggest that they plan to gradually pass higher tariffs on to consumers over the coming years.[35]

    In addition, in order to compensate for the hit to input costs, firms also tend to raise the prices of goods not directly affected by tariffs. There is evidence that retailers broadly adjust price markups even if only a subset of wholesale prices change.[36]

    The second, and related, factor determining the strength of the supply shock relates to global value chains.

    Unlike during the wave of protectionism in the 1930s, today the dominant share of international trade, about 70%, reflects multinational firms distributing production across countries and along the value chain to minimise costs. In this process, parts and components often cross borders many times.

    Prohibitive tariffs between the United States and China are already disrupting supply chains. Shipments of goods are declining, potentially causing future shortages of critical intermediate goods that could reverberate across the world.

    While current conditions are very different from those seen during the pandemic, when supply chain disruptions were a main factor driving the surge in inflation, the impact of tariffs is likely to be amplified as the increase in firms’ marginal costs propagates through the production network.

    ECB staff analysis shows that, even if the EU does not retaliate, higher production costs transmitted through global value chains could more than offset the disinflationary pressure coming from lower foreign demand, making tariffs inflationary overall (Slide 10, left-hand side).[37]

    These effects will become stronger with full retaliation, including intermediate goods. So far, the EU’s retaliatory measures have disproportionately targeted final consumer goods, such as beverages, food and home appliances – precisely to avoid broader cost effects being transmitted through value chains (Slide 10, right-hand side).

    But if the trade conflict intensifies, the scale of retaliation will widen and increasingly include intermediate goods, as these account for nearly 70% of euro area imports from the United States.

    In other words, retaliatory tariffs on intermediate goods would constitute a much broader cost-push shock for euro area firms, reminiscent of the post-pandemic supply chain disruptions.[38]

    It is possible that these effects will be mitigated by China redirecting goods originally destined for the United States towards the euro area and other economies at a discount.

    In practice, however, this mitigation channel is likely to be contained. India, for example, has already raised temporary tariffs on China to curb a surge in imports. Similarly, the European Commission has repeatedly clarified that it intends to protect euro area firms against dumping prices should imports from China rise significantly in response to the evolving trade conflict with the United States.[39]

    Policy implications

    How, then, should the ECB respond to the current shocks?

    The lessons from the post-pandemic surge in inflation suggest that, from today’s perspective, the appropriate course of action is to keep rates close to where they are today – that is, firmly in neutral territory.

    A “steady hand” policy provides the best insurance against a wide range of potential outcomes. In other words, it is robust to many contingencies.

    Specifically, it avoids reacting excessively to volatility in headline inflation at a time when domestic inflation remains sticky and new forces are putting upward pressure on underlying inflation over the medium term. Given lags in policy transmission, an accommodative policy stance could amplify risks to medium-term price stability.

    This steady hand policy also avoids overreacting to concerns that tariffs may destabilise inflation expectations once again.

    In recent months, households’ short-term inflation expectations have reversed and started rising again. According to the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey, expectations for inflation one year ahead increased to 2.9% in March from their trough of 2.4% in September 2024 (Slide 11, left-hand side). Qualitative inflation expectations, as measured by the European Commission, even rose to levels last seen in late 2022 (Slide 11, right-hand side).

    Currently, there are no indications that this rise is persistent, or that inflation expectations are at risk of unanchoring.

    Hence, we can afford to look through the rise in short-term inflation expectations. This could change if we see clear signs of a strong and front-loaded pass-through of potential tariff increases – something that could bring us back to the steep part of the Phillips curve. So far, however, evidence suggests that firms have notably slowed the frequency with which they revise their prices.

    A steady hand policy also addresses risks of a more substantial decline in aggregate demand in response to the trade conflict.

    If tight labour markets were the main culprit for the recent steepening of the Phillips curve, risks of a sharp decline in inflation caused by a rise in unemployment are much more moderate today.

    The reason for this is that in both the United States and the euro area, the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio has fallen markedly and is now at a level that suggests that labour markets are much more balanced (Slide 12).

    We are thus likely to be operating close to, or at, the flat part of the Phillips curve where a change in unemployment has only limited effects on underlying inflation, in stark contrast to the high inflation period.[40]

    We would only need to react more forcefully to the tariff shock if we observed a sharp deterioration in labour market conditions or an unanchoring of inflation expectations to the downside.

    Both seem unlikely at the current juncture.

    Despite the number of vacancies declining, the euro area labour market has proven resilient, with unemployment at a record low. And most measures of medium-term inflation expectations remain tilted to the upside, including those of professional forecasters (Slide 13).

    Conclusion

    My main message today, and with this I would like to conclude, is therefore simple: now is the time to keep a steady hand.

    In the current environment of elevated volatility, the ECB needs to remain focused on the medium term. Given long and variable transmission lags, reacting to short-term developments could result in the peak impact of our policy only unfolding when the current disinflationary forces have passed.

    Over the medium term, risks to euro area inflation are likely tilted to the upside, reflecting both the increase in fiscal spending and the risks of renewed cost-push shocks from tariffs propagating through global value chains.

    Therefore, from today’s perspective, an accommodative monetary policy stance would be inappropriate, also because recent inflation data suggest that past shocks may unwind more slowly than previously anticipated.

    By keeping interest rates near their current levels, we can be confident that monetary policy is neither excessively holding back growth and employment, nor stimulating it. We are thus in a good place to evaluate the likely future evolution of the economy and to take action if risks materialise that threaten price stability.

    Thank you.

    MIL OSI Global Banks –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Reps. Ramirez & Lieu, Senator Durbin Meet with Business Owners, Call to Protect Diverse Small Businesses’ Funding

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Representative Delia Ramirez – Illinois (3rd District)

    CHICAGO, IL — Today,  Congresswoman Delia C. Ramirez (IL-03) hosted Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL), House Democrats Vice-Chair Congressman Ted Lieu (CA-36), and Cook County Commissioner Jessica Vásquez for a business crawl of the Milwaukee Avenue’s business corridor to commemorate National Small Business Week. During the crawl, the members of Congress heard directly from business owners about the impact that the Trump Administration’s funding cuts and service reductions will have on diverse small businesses and local economies. 

    After the announcement of Trump’s record-breaking proposed defunding of federal services and programs, the Members of Congress held a press conference to demand that the Administration restore the funding for diversity and equity programs and reopen the Small Business Administration (SBA) offices in jurisdictions that protect immigrants’ rights, and end the trade war. 

    “The Milwaukee Ave Business Corridor is not only a reminder of how our communities’ small businesses grow our local and national economies, but also of how interconnected they are to global markets. From Poland to Puerto Rico, from China to Colombia, countless immigrant families have chosen Milwaukee Avenue to set up shop and share their culture, cuisine, and craft,” said Congresswoman Ramirez. “While the Trump Administration turns its back on small business owners, I’m standing in coalition with Senator Durbin, Congressman Ted Lieu, Commissioner Jessica Vasquez, and local leaders and business owners to fight back for our local, diverse, equitable, and inclusive economies.”

    “Small businesses are the backbone of our communities and economies,” said Senator Durbin. “Illinois is home to more than 1.2 million small businesses, which should be something to celebrate this National Small Business Week. Instead, our local store owners, like the ones I was fortunate to visit today, find themselves facing worker shortages and chaos caused by Trump’s trade war. I’ll continue to do all I can, alongside members of the House like Representatives Ramirez and Lieu, to fight for our local businesses at the federal level and lower costs for the American people.”

    “Trump’s indiscriminate tariffs make no sense. Now, small businesses and consumers are paying more for food and products. We had a growing economy at the end of 2024. Unfortunately, Trump’s policies have led us to negative GDP growth,” said Congressman Lieu. “Today, we are here to highlight the difficulties small businesses are facing and to tell the Trump administration they need to stop the indiscriminate tariffs. They are hurting our economies, American consumers, and businesses. Thank you, Congresswoman Ramirez, for your representation.”

    During the crawl, the public officials visited multiple businesses, including Magnífico Coffee Roasters & Coffee Shop  (Colombian-owned family business), Friendship Chinese (Asian-American owned restaurant, Michelin-recommended), the RCM Studios (Black-owned recording studio), and Kurowski’s Sausage Shop (staple Polish market).

    For photos and videos of the event, CLICK HERE.

    For a live stream of the press conference, CLICK HERE.

    BACKGROUND:

    The Trump Administration’s 30% cuts to SBA are expected to negatively impact local communities’ access to Small Business Development Centers, reducing resources for local business owners. Under the Trump Administration, 15 SBA Entrepreneurial Development programs have been eliminated, including the Veterans’ Business Outreach Program, the National Women’s Business Council, and Women’s Business Centers. 

    More than 90% of small businesses rely on imported goods for everything from products to construction materials. Trump’s tariffs will raise prices for businesses and are expected to cost families an extra $3,800 a year. In a recent poll, 70% of small business owners said they believe the country is headed towards a recession.

    The Trump Administration’s anti-immigrant agenda is also affecting business. Beyond the persecution of immigrant workers, 1 in 5 businesses are started by immigrant families, including undocumented immigrants and mixed-status families. The Trump Administration’s decision to close the offices in sanctuary jurisdictions and limit the funding for immigrant businesses will hurt local economies. 

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: InvestHK promotes Hong Kong as Asia’s business launch pad in Eastern Europe and Middle East (with photo)

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

    InvestHK promotes Hong Kong as Asia’s business launch pad in Eastern Europe and Middle East (with photo)      
         Ms Lau said, “Hong Kong’s unique advantages as a global financial hub and Asia’s business launch pad make it the perfect partner for enterprises from Türkiye, Hungary and Egypt in expanding into the Mainland, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) markets, and further in Asia and beyond. Anchored in the Belt and Road Initiative, we look forward to fostering collaboration and showcasing how Hong Kong can drive their success across the region.”
          
         She added that Hong Kong offers unmatched access to the Mainland and the Asia-Pacific region through initiatives such as the Greater Bay Area and its Free Trade Agreement with ASEAN. The city’s business-friendly environment, free capital movement and a robust innovation and technology ecosystem hosting nearly 10 000 companies from overseas and the Mainland, and close to 4 700 start-ups, empowers businesses to innovate and grow.
          
         Ms Lau will arrive in Istanbul tomorrow (May 11, Istanbul time) to engage with Turkish companies from various sectors which are interested in using Hong Kong as a springboard to grow across the Asia-Pacific region. She will speak at different events, including an Istanbul Chamber of Commerce Business Seminar, a Foreign Economic Relations Board of Türkiye Business Seminar, and meet with Turkish media to highlight Hong Kong’s business-friendly environment, which includes a low and simple tax regime, free capital flow, and a common law system under the “one country, two systems” principle.
          
         In 2024, Türkiye was Hong Kong’s 30th largest trading partner, with bilateral merchandise trade between the two places amounting to HK$16.6 billion. The Hong Kong–Türkiye comprehensive avoidance of double taxation agreement signed in 2024 enhances tax certainty, facilitating cross-border transactions.
          
         Since Türkiye’s inclusion in Hong Kong’s Dedicated Fund on Branding, Upgrading and Domestic Sales has supported Hong Kong companies expanding into the Turkish market. To further strengthen bilateral business ties, InvestHK set up a second office in Izmir in January 2025 to promote opportunities that Hong Kong offers to Turkish corporates seeking regional expansion. 
          
         On May 13 (Budapest time), Ms Lau will arrive in Budapest to meet major Hungarian companies keen on using Hong Kong as a regional hub for Asia-Pacific expansion. She will meet with media to update them on Hong Kong’s latest business environment and opportunities. Ms Lau will also attend the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Economic and Trade Cooperation Conference in Hungary.
          
         In 2024, Hungary was Hong Kong’s 33rd largest trading partner and around 9.4 per cent (HK$9.4 billion) of the total merchandise trade between Hungary and the Mainland routed through Hong Kong. Hong Kong serves as a gateway for Hungarian businesses targeting Asian markets, leveraging its role as “super connector” under the Belt and Road Initiative, while Hungary benefits from Hong Kong’s open investment environment. Hungarian manufacturing, technology, and healthtech companies can tap Hong Kong’s vibrant innovation and technology ecosystem, backed by global capital and world-class universities, to grow in ASEAN and China’s Greater Bay Area.
          
         On May 17 (Cairo time), Ms Lau will visit Cairo to connect with global Egyptian businesses eager to establish operations in Hong Kong to seize Asia-Pacific opportunities. She will also attend the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Economic and Trade Cooperation Conference in Cairo.
          
         In 2023, InvestHK signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the General Authority for Investment and Free Zones of the Arab Republic of Egypt, pledging mutual co-operation on investment promotion exchanges and support. In 2024, bilateral merchandise trade between Hong Kong and Egypt amounted to HK$2.1 billion, up 5.4 per cent over 2023.
    Issued at HKT 9:00

    NNNN

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Breaking: Pakistan Launches Military Operation Against India

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Xinhua | 10. 05. 2025

    Keywords: Pakistan, started, operation, India, urgently, Saturday, official sources, continuous provocations, as a response, reported, Pakistan, started

    ISLAMABAD, May 10 (Xinhua) — Pakistan has launched a large-scale military operation in response to India’s continued provocations, official sources said Saturday.

    Source: Xinhua

    Breaking: Pakistan Launches Military Operation Against India Breaking: Pakistan Launches Military Operation Against India

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI China: Chinese health team continues post-quake disease prevention work in Myanmar

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    MANDALAY, Myanmar, May 9 — The Chinese government’s health and epidemic prevention team to Myanmar continues its work in the earthquake-affected areas of Mandalay on Friday.

    The team has visited several settlements for earthquake victims and conducted activities such as water sample collection and testing, mosquito-borne disease monitoring, environmental sanitation, vaccination guidance, post-disaster psychological support, exchanges with Myanmar public health professionals, and laboratory skills training.

    Zhao Shiwen, an expert with the Chinese health prevention team and deputy director of the Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said during exchanges with local professionals that the risk of infectious disease outbreaks typically rises significantly after a major earthquake.

    Zhao highlighted the importance of conducting hygienic testing of drinking water and food, and the pathological testing of patients and the environment in disaster-affected areas.

    The Chinese team brought laboratory testing equipment and reagent supplies capable of performing up to 80 types of tests in Myanmar.

    While providing psychological support for victims, the team also began training local volunteers in psychological intervention skills to ensure the sustainability of these efforts.

    The 50-member team, carrying emergency medical supplies and equipment, arrived in Myanmar on April 19 to support local health prevention and control efforts following the deadly disaster.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI China: China, Pacific Island countries to strengthen tourism cooperation

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    NADI, Fiji, May 9 — The two-day China-Pacific Island Countries Tourism Exchange Session opened in Nadi, the third largest city in Fiji on Friday, highlighting cross-border tourism cooperation and in-depth cultural experiences.

    The event brought together government officials and tourism professionals from China and 10 Pacific Island countries and regions including Fiji, Tonga and Vanuatu.

    During Friday’s meeting, representatives from China’s tourism industry introduced to the participants the development trends of China’s outbound tourism market and China’s experience in building tourist destinations, providing strategic suggestions for attracting Chinese tourists to visit the island nations.

    Representatives from Kiribati, the Cook Islands, Niue, the Solomon Islands and Fiji also respectively introduced their own tourism facilitation policies and resources.

    Xu Yue, an official of China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism who attended the meeting, said that there is huge potential for tourism cooperation between China and the Pacific Island countries.

    The Chairperson of the Pacific Tourism Organization (SPTO) Adela Issachar Aru said that as a member of the SPTO, China has always been an important source market for the Pacific region.

    “We deeply value the growing interest of Chinese travelers in the Pacific Islands,” Aru said.

    Bo Lin, a senior manager of the China International Travel Service Head Office, told Xinhua that the unique culture of the Pacific region has considerable appeal to Chinese tourists, especially the younger generation.

    Through this exchange meeting, Chinese tourism merchants will explore more local reception resources in the island countries, and design more tailored tourism routes and products for the Pacific Island countries to meet the needs of Chinese tourists, Bo said.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI China: Remember history to illuminate future — Xi attends Victory Day commemorations in Moscow

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Remember history to illuminate future — Xi attends Victory Day commemorations in Moscow

    Chinese President Xi Jinping, along with other leaders, lays flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and observes a moment of silence, following the celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Soviet Union’s Great Patriotic War in Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2025. Leaders from more than 20 countries and international organizations are invited to the events. [Photo/Xinhua]

    MOSCOW, May 9 — Bouquet in hand before the Eternal Flame at the Red Square, Chinese President Xi Jinping joined Russian President Vladimir Putin and more than 20 other leaders to lay red flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.

    The solemn ceremony marked a moment of remembrance and tribute to those who perished in the Soviet Union’s Great Patriotic War, as Russia celebrated the 80th anniversary of victory in that war on Friday.

    This year’s commemorations culminated in a grand military parade at the Red Square earlier in the day. At the main viewing stand, Xi and Putin sat side by side and talked from time to time.

    Chinese President Xi Jinping attends celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Soviet Union’s Great Patriotic War in Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    Over 11,500 military personnel, including contingents from more than 10 countries, took part in the parade. Among them was the Guard of Honor of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Xi rose from his seat when the PLA unit passed through the square.

    In the parade’s “historical” segment, Russian service members, clad in uniforms from the era of the Soviet Union’s Great Patriotic War, carried vintage military flags and weapons, evoking memories of the years of resistance against Fascism.

    The Guard of Honor of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) attend a grand parade marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Soviet Union’s Great Patriotic War in Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    On the night of May 8, 1945, Germany signed the surrender document in Karlshorst, Berlin, marking the end of WWII in Europe. Meanwhile in Moscow, it was already May 9, which was designated by the Soviet Union and later Russia as “Victory Day.” Since 1995, Russia has been holding military parades and other commemorative events every year on May 9.

    “The Soviet Union took upon itself the most ferocious, merciless blows of the enemy,” Putin said in an address ahead of the parade. “We shall always remember that the opening of the Second Front in Europe after the decisive battles on the territory of the Soviet Union brought victory closer.”

    “We highly value the contribution to our common struggle of Allied soldiers, members of the resistance, the courageous people of China, all those who fought for a peaceful future,” Putin said.

    The Soviet Union was the principal theater of World War II in Europe, losing 27 million lives, while China was the main theater in Asia, suffering 35 million casualties in its resistance against the bulk of Japanese militarist forces. Together, the two countries served as the mainstay of resistance against Japanese militarism and German Nazism, making pivotal contributions to the victory in the World Anti-Fascist War.

    Eighty years ago, in the face of brutal aggression of militarism and Nazism, the Chinese and Russian peoples stood united, fighting side by side against a common enemy and writing a remarkable and heroic chapter in history, Xi said when he and Putin jointly met the press on Thursday after their talks at the Kremlin.

    Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin jointly meet the press after their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, May 8, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    This is the second time for Xi to attend Russia’s Victory Day celebrations after he traveled to Moscow upon the 70th anniversary 10 years ago. That same year, Putin also attended China’s Victory Day parade on Sept. 3 in Beijing to commemorate the victory of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War.

    The past decade has been one of profound turbulence and transformation in the international landscape, Xi noted when meeting the press with Putin on Thursday.

    In the face of the changes of the world, of the times and of historical significance, China and Russia should keep a firm grasp on the development direction of bilateral ties and the general trend of the development of human society, Xi said, calling for greater joint efforts in safeguarding international fairness and justice.

    Ahead of his state visit to Russia, Xi published a signed article in Russian media titled “Learning from History to Build Together a Brighter Future.”

    “Indeed, historical memory and truth will not fade with the passage of time. They serve as inspirations that mirror the present and illuminate the future. We must learn from history, especially the hard lessons of the Second World War,” he wrote.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Murkowski Working with FBI Director to Address MMIWG and Fentanyl in Alaska

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Alaska Lisa Murkowski
    05.09.25
    Washington, DC – During a U.S. Senate Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Appropriations Subcommittee hearing this week, U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) secured commitments from the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) to work with her on critical public safety issues for Alaska. As Alaska struggles with Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls cases and fentanyl-related deaths, Director Kash Patel pledged to make Alaska a priority as the Bureau addresses these life-and-death matters.
    Click here to watch the Senator’s full line of questioning.
    The full transcript of Murkowski’s comments is below.
    Murkowski: Director, good morning. This a week that a lot of Alaskans are paying attention to. Monday was the day that we recognize Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls Awareness day. I’ve just been going through the morning clips, not while you have been testifying of course, but this morning. And there’s accounts in Anchorage, Juneau, and Fairbanks, and marches in Nome, all recounting very painful stories that families have endured, of their family members who have gone missing, where law enforcement just was not present for a host of different reasons. You and I talked about this prior to your confirmation and it is something that I have been working on for a period of years now. We have made some good progress under the first Trump Administration. There was a focus called ‘Operation Lady Justice’ and now I am pleased to see that we have this expanded to what you’re calling ‘Operation Not Forgotten,’ to look into unresolved violent crimes in Indian Country including cases involving missing/murdered indigenous persons.
    I am looking critically at the budget here and wondering if you can share with me how the budget requests, or what we have of it at this point in time, will support this expansion of ‘Operation Not Forgotten’. I need to be able to give folks back home the comfort that they need to know that these cases that have gone cold, for not just months and years, but decades, will not be dropped. That that push for closure will continue. What can you share with me this morning?
    Patel: Senator, I greatly appreciate you highlighting and being a champion of crimes on Indian Country. And just this week I was the first FBI Director in U.S. History to sit down at the Department of the Interior with the Tribal leaders at the STAT level. I also met privately with the parents of Emily Pike, who was tragically butchered on a reservation in Arizona and her parents asked me to find the remaining pieces of her body that have not been returned. She is a 14-year-old girl, she is still missing her arms, they only have her torso. What I told them, and what I hope you take back to Alaska and what the rest of the tribal community hears, is that every crime in this country will be treated equally. Those that happen on Indian Country and those that are happening to Native Americans are just as horrific as those happening in the rest of America. We’ve already prioritized resources in our state level task forces to address these matters. And I asked the staff to allow FBI agents onto reservations on a more regular basis and engage with them directly. I also invited the community leaders to nominate a law enforcement officer from one of the tribal jurisdictions to sit with me at the Hoover Building in the FBI so that we have a direct engagement with the community. So, we are, just one highlight, I think in Wind River, we executed an operation that took down, I can’t remember how many dozens of pounds of fentanyl that was heading to an Indian reservation. So, you have my commitment that we will not forget it.
    Murkowski: Well thank you for that broader commitment. As you know of, course, we don’t have reservations in Alaska, we don’t have the same type of tribal law enforcement presence. So, some unique aspects of it. My understanding is the Alaska field office in Anchorage, along with the two satellite offices that we have, one in Fairbanks and one in Juneau, they have one FBI Victim Service Coordinator to communicate with these families. This has been part of the problem. It’s radio silence out of the agency. They don’t know whether a case is being pursued, they hear nothing. So, I would ask that you look, as you’re looking at your budget, to make sure that the FBI does include support for Victim Service Coordinators on this. It’s a gap that is missing right now.
    Very quickly, we also talked about the fentanyl crisis in Alaska. We are the one state that tragically is going the wrong way when it comes to fentanyl deaths. We had a 40% increase in fentanyl deaths in 2023. You had indicated that you would be doing aggressive work here. We need to be doing more and I’ve shared that it ought to be easier intercept drugs that are coming into Alaska because they come in by air plane, they come through the mail, and they occasionally come in by boat. Maybe a little bit driving across through the border. But we’ve got the ability to do the interception and right now our numbers are not going down. I just ask for your continued commitment with this. We are seeing FBI partnering with ICE for arrests and detentions of immigrants in Alaska. Folks are asking me, “are we using FBI resources?” Redirecting them from the fentanyl crisis to perhaps perusing that have been targeted immigrants even though they aren’t violent criminals. So, I’d love to have further conversations with you on some of these Alaska specifics, but we have got to start turning that corner on fentanyl.
    Patel: Yes, ma’am, and I think you know this: we are sending a plus up to Alaska in part of this movement out to the field and we will look to address those specific issues, and I will work with you and your office to make sure that Alaska is not forgotten and that we emphasize it.
    Murkowski: Very good, appreciate it. Thank you very much.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: ​China Brings More Confidence to Global Economy

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Leaders of multinational companies, taking into account the actual situation of scientific and technological innovation, social development and other aspects in China, hope to jointly explore new synergies in the fields of digital technology, artificial intelligence and healthcare.

    “I am very happy to be back in China. IKEA has been in China for 60 years, but we are thinking about the next 60 years,” Inter IKEA Group CEO Jon Abrahamsson Ring said recently, adding that long-term cooperation with China is important and that the development of Chinese renewable energy technologies is “very good,” which will contribute to IKEA’s future sustainable development.

    Sean Green, President and CEO of BMW Group China, noted that “Chinese consumers are on average around 20 years younger than Europeans.” BMW is addressing the digital needs of young Chinese consumers and is deepening strategic collaborations with Chinese technology companies, deeply integrating cloud-based interactive capabilities and personalized generative AI experiences so that vehicles can more seamlessly adapt to China’s smart city infrastructure in the future. André Hoffmann, Deputy Chairman of the Roche Group, noted that China’s healthcare needs, coupled with an aging society, are growing and will provide greater opportunities for innovative medicines to develop. He stressed that Roche looks forward to working closely with the Chinese government, healthcare providers and industry partners.

    Schneider Electric Group Chairman Jean-Pascal Tricoire said Schneider Electric is working with multiple Chinese suppliers to implement carbon-reducing practices. Its plant in Shanghai’s Putuo district has reduced its new product development cycle by 63% and increased its average production efficiency per person by 82%, setting a model for existing plants. By 2027, Amway plans to upgrade and improve more than 100 spaces where people can use its products to promote a healthy, quality lifestyle. The company will also undertake research projects such as building its own organic farms, anti-aging plant breeding, and space breeding…

    The rapidly growing Chinese market will continue to create new growth poles and bring more dynamism and confidence to the global economy. “The transformation of the Chinese mainland economy has opened up enormous opportunities for the world. Various breakthrough innovations are transforming the economic structure and driving economic growth,” said Hong Kong Stock Exchange Chairman Tang Jiacheng. “As a leading financial center in Asia, Hong Kong can provide important financial support for these innovations,” he added.

    Standing at a new historical turning point, the Chinese market has transformed from a uniform production base into a global source of innovation. Foreign-invested enterprises need to seize the breakthrough opportunities of “future technologies” such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, and deeply develop “markets in third-tier cities and below” that are closely related to people’s social security.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tracing radiation through the Marshall Islands: Reflections from a veteran Greenpeace nuclear campaigner

    SPECIAL REPORT: By Shaun Burnie of Greenpeace

    We’ve visited Ground Zero. Not once, but three times. But for generations, before these locations were designated as such, they were the ancestral home to the people of the Marshall Islands.

    As part of a team of Greenpeace scientists and specialists from the Radiation Protection Advisers team, we have embarked on a six-week tour on board the Rainbow Warrior, sailing through one of the most disturbing chapters in human history: between 1946 and 1958, the United States detonated 67 nuclear bombs across the Marshall Islands — equivalent to 7200 Hiroshima explosions.

    During this period, testing nuclear weapons at the expense of wonderful ocean nations like the Marshall Islands was considered an acceptable practice, or as the US put it, “for the good of mankind”.

    Instead, the radioactive fallout left a deep and complex legacy — one that is both scientific and profoundly human, with communities displaced for generations.

    The Rainbow Warrior coming into port in Majuro, Marshall Islands. Between March and April 2025 it embarked on a six-week mission around the Pacific nation to elevate calls for nuclear and climate justice; and support independent scientific research into the impacts of decades-long nuclear weapons testing by the US government. Image: © Bianca Vitale/Greenpeace

    Between March and April, we travelled on the Greenpeace flagship vessel, the Rainbow Warrior, throughout the Marshall Islands, including to three northern atolls that bear the most severe scars of Cold War nuclear weapons testing:

    • Enewetak atoll, where, on Runit Island, stands a massive leaking concrete dome beneath which lies plutonium-contaminated waste, a result of a partial “clean-up” of some of the islands after the nuclear tests;
    • Bikini atoll, a place so beautiful, yet rendered uninhabitable by some of the most powerful nuclear detonations ever conducted; and
    • Rongelap atoll, where residents were exposed to radiation fallout and later convinced to return to contaminated land, part of what is now known as Project 4.1, a US medical experiment to test humans’  exposure to radiation.

    This isn’t fiction, nor the distant past. It’s a chapter of history still alive through the environment, the health of communities, and the data we’re collecting today.

    Each location we visit, each sample we take, adds to a clearer picture of some of the long-term impacts of nuclear testing—and highlights the importance of continuing to document, investigate, and attempt to understand and share these findings.

    These are our field notes from a journey through places that hold important lessons for science, justice, and global accountability.

    As part of the Marshall Islands ship tour, a group of Greenpeace scientists and independent radiation experts were in Rongelap to sample lagoon sediments and plants that could become food if people came back. Image: © Greenpeace/Chewy C. Lin

    Our mission: why are we here?
     With the permission and support of the Marshallese government, a group of Greenpeace science and radiation experts, together with independent scientists, are in the island nation to assess, investigate, and document the long-term environmental and radiological consequences of nuclear weapons testing in the Marshall Islands.

    Our mission is grounded in science. We’re conducting field sampling and radiological surveys to gather data on what radioactivity remains in the environment — isotopes such as caesium-137, strontium-90 and plutonium-239/240. These substances are released during nuclear explosions and can linger in the environment for decades, posing serious health risks, such as increased risk of cancers in organs and bones.

    But this work is not only about radiation measurements, it is also about bearing witness.

    We are here in solidarity with Marshallese communities who continue to live with the consequences of decisions made decades ago, without their consent and far from the public eye.

    Stop 1: Enewetak Atoll — the dome that shouldn’t exist

    The Runit Dome with the Greenpeace ship Rainbow Warrior in the background. Image: © Greenpeace/Chewy C. Lin

    At the far western edge of the Marshall Islands is Enewetak. The name might not ring a bell for many, but this atoll was the site of 43 US nuclear detonations. Today, it houses what may be one of the most radioactive places in the world — the Runit Dome.

    Once a tropical paradise thick with coconut palms, Runit Island is capped by a massive concrete structure the size of a football field. Under this dome — cracked, weather-worn, and only 46 centimetres thick in some places — lies 85,000 cubic metres of radioactive waste. These substances are not only confined to the crater — they are also found across the island’s soil, rendering Runit Island uninhabitable for all time.

    The contrast between what it once was and what it has become is staggering. We took samples near the dome’s base, where rising sea levels now routinely flood the area.

    We collected coconut from the island, which will be processed and prepared in the Rainbow Warrior’s onboard laboratory. Crops such as coconut are a known vector for radioactive isotope transfer, and tracking levels in food sources is essential for understanding long-term environmental and health risks.

    The local consequences of this simple fact are deeply unjust. While some atolls in the Marshall Islands can harvest and sell coconut products, the people of Enewetak are prohibited from doing so because of radioactive contamination.

    They have lost not only their land and safety but also their ability to sustain themselves economically. The radioactive legacy has robbed them of income and opportunity.

    Measuring and collecting coconut samples. Image: © Greenpeace/Chewy C. Lin

    One of the most alarming details about this dome is that there is no lining beneath the structure — it is in direct contact with the environment, while containing some of the most hazardous long-lived substances ever to exist on planet Earth. It was never built to withstand flooding, sea level rise, and climate change.

    The scientific questions are urgent: how much of this material is already leaking into the lagoon? What are the exposure risks to marine ecosystems and local communities?

    We are here to help answer questions with new, independent data, but still, being in the craters and walking on this ground where nuclear Armageddon was unleashed is an emotional and surreal journey.

    Stop 2: Bikini — a nuclear catastrophe, labelled ‘for the good of mankind’

    Aerial shot of Bikini atoll, Marshall Islands. The Greenpeace ship, Rainbow Warrior can be seen in the upper left. Image: © Greenpeace/Chewy C. Lin

    Unlike Chernobyl or Fukushima, where communities were devastated by catastrophic accidents, Bikini tells a different story. This was not an accident.

    The nuclear destruction of Bikini was deliberate, calculated, and executed with full knowledge that entire ways of life were going to be destroyed.

    Bikini Atoll is incredibly beautiful and would look idyllic on any postcard. But we know what lies beneath: the site of 23 nuclear detonations, including Castle Bravo, the largest ever nuclear weapons test conducted by the United States.

    Castle Bravo alone released more than 1000 times the explosive yield of the Hiroshima bomb. The radioactive fallout massively contaminated nearby islands and their populations, together with thousands of US military personnel.

    Bikini’s former residents were forcibly relocated in 1946 before nuclear testing began, with promises of a safe return. But the atoll is still uninhabited, and most of the new generations of Bikinians have never seen their home island.

    As we stood deep in the forest next to a massive concrete blast bunker, reality hit hard — behind its narrow lead-glass viewing window, US military personnel once watched the evaporation of Bikini lagoon.

    Bikini Islanders board a landing craft vehicle personnel (LCVP) as they depart from Bikini Atoll in March 1946. Image: © United States Navy

    On our visit, we noticed there’s a spectral quality to Bikini. The homes of the Bikini islanders are long gone. In its place now stand a scattering of buildings left by the US Department of Energy: rusting canteens, rotting offices, sleeping quarters with peeling walls, and traces of the scientific experiments conducted here after the bombs fell.

    On dusty desks, we found radiation reports, notes detailing crop trials, and a notebook meticulously tracking the application of potassium to test plots of corn, alfalfa, lime, and native foods like coconut, pandanus, and banana. The potassium was intended to block the uptake of caesium-137, a radioactive isotope, by plant roots.

    The logic was simple: if these crops could be decontaminated, perhaps one day Bikini could be repopulated.

    We collected samples of coconuts and soil — key indicators of internal exposure risk if humans were to return. Bikini raises a stark question: What does “safe” mean, and who gets to decide?

    The US declared parts of Bikini habitable in 1970, only to evacuate people again eight years later after resettled families suffered from radiation exposure. The science is not abstract here. It is personal. It is human. It has real consequences.

    Stop 3: Rongelap — setting for Project 4.1

    The abandoned church on Rongelap atoll. Image: © Greenpeace/Chewy C. Lin

    The Rainbow Warrior arrived at the eastern side of Rongelap atoll, anchoring one mile from the centre of Rongelap Island, the church spire and roofs of “new” buildings reflecting the bright sun.

    n 1954, fallout from the Castle Bravo nuclear detonation on Bikini blanketed this atoll in radioactive ash — fine, white powder that children played in, thinking it was snow. The US government waited three days to evacuate residents, despite knowing the risks. The US government declared it safe to return to Rongelap in 1957 — but it was a severely contaminated environment. The very significant radiation exposure to the Rongelap population caused severe health impacts: thyroid cancers, birth defects such as “jellyfish babies”, miscarriages, and much more.

    In 1985, after a request to the US government to evacuate was dismissed, the Rongelap community asked Greenpeace to help relocate them from their ancestral lands. Using the first Rainbow Warrior, and over a period of 10 days and four trips, 350 residents collectively dismantled their homes, bringing everything with them — including livestock, and 100 metric tons of building material — where they resettled on the islands of Mejatto and Ebeye on Kwajalein atoll.

    It is a part of history that lives on in the minds of the Marshallese people we meet in this ship voyage — in the gratitude they still express, the pride in keeping the fight for justice, and in the pain of still not having a permanent, safe home.

    Greenpeace representatives and displaced Rongelap community come together on Mejatto, Marshall Islands to commemorate the 40 years since the Rainbow Warrior evacuated the island’s entire population in May 1985 due to the impacts of US nuclear weapons testing. Image: © Greenpeace/Chewy C. Lin

    Now, once again, we are standing on their island of Rongelap, walking past abandoned buildings and rusting equipment, some of it dating from the 1980s and 1990s — a period when the US Department of Energy launched a push to encourage resettlement declaring that the island was safe — a declaration that this time, the population welcomed with mistrust, not having access to independent scientific data and remembering the deceitful relocation of some decades before.

    Here, once again, we sample soil and fruits that could become food if people came back. It is essential to understand ongoing risks — especially for communities considering whether and how to return.

    This is not the end. It is just the beginning

    The team of Greenpeace scientists and independent radiation experts on Rongelap atoll, Marshall Islands, with the Rainbow Warrior in the background. Shaun Burnie (author of the article) is first on the left. Image: © Greenpeace/Chewy C. Lin

    Our scientific mission is to take measurements, collect samples, and document contamination. But that’s not all we’re bringing back.

    We carry with us the voices of the Marshallese who survived these tests and are still living with their consequences. We carry images of graves swallowed by tides near Runit Dome, stories of entire cultures displaced from their homelands, and measurements of radiation showing contamination still persists after many decades.

    There are 9700 nuclear warheads still held by military powers around the world – mostly in the United States and Russian arsenals. The Marshall Islands was one of the first nations to suffer the consequences of nuclear weapons — and the legacy persists today.

    We didn’t come to speak for the Marshallese. We came to listen, to bear witness, and to support their demand for justice. We plan to return next year, to follow up on our research and to make results available to the people of the Marshall Islands.

    And we will keep telling these stories — until justice is more than just a word.

    Kommol Tata (“thank you” in the beautiful Marshallese language) for following our journey.

    Shaun Burnie is a senior nuclear specialist at Greenpeace Ukraine and was part of the Rainbow Warrior team in the Marshall Islands. This article was first published by Greenpeace Aotearoa and is republished with permission.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Investing more to stop illicit drugs entering NZ

    Source: NZ Music Month takes to the streets

    Budget 2025 will do more to strengthen our borders, prevent drug smuggling and fight organised crime, Customs Minister Casey Costello announced today. 

    “Customs is doing a great job stopping illicit drugs entering the country, but New Zealand is increasingly being targeted by organised crime groups. The Government is committed to ensuring law and order, so it is investing in the tools and capacity agencies need to meet growing challenges,” Minister Costello says. 

    “Transnational and serious organised crime threats are growing worldwide. These groups are increasingly targeting the Pacific and New Zealand, which has some of the world’s highest prices for illicit drugs like methamphetamine and cocaine.

     “In 2014, Customs seized 55kg of methamphetamine in the entire year. Last year Customs stopped, on average, 90kg of meth every week.In the past two years, Customs and its offshore partners stopped nearly 8.5 tonnes of meth from entering the country and harming New Zealanders.

    “We know what works to stop the threat from organized crime, and harm from drugs. Decisions at Budget 2025 mean that Customs will have $35 million more over four years to help to do this job even better,” Minister Costello says.

    “The extra funding will increase the number of staff protecting our border as well as increasing Customs technological capability.”

    The funding will focus on three areas: 

    • Targeting those involved in lower-quantity, high-frequency drug smuggling such as through international mail or airports.
    • Improving supply chain security and targeting the “trusted insiders” who use these links to help smuggle drugs.
    • Extending Customs presence overseas, with an additional liaison officer to support investigations and information sharing with global enforcement and border partners.

    “While Customs is dealing with increasingly large-scale drug smuggling attempts, it also needs more capacity to investigate and prosecute the smuggling that sends low quantities of drugs in high volumes through international mail and air routes. This new funding will provide that.” The new spending will provide Customs funding for up to 60 additional roles over the next four years, including investigations and prosecutions, intelligence, and border operations.

    It comprises $21 million in operating expenditure and $5.5 million in capital funded through Budget 2025 plus an additional $8.2 million from third party levies and fees. 

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Breaking: India Launches Missile Strikes on Three Air Bases in Pakistan

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Xinhua | 10. 05. 2025

    Keywords: three airbases, india, struck, urgently, pakistan, class missiles, rawalpindi, khan, reported, representative, surface, noor, islamabad, india, launched, air

    ISLAMABAD, May 10 (Xinhua) — India fired air-to-surface missiles at three Pakistani air bases, including Nur Khan in Rawalpindi, near Islamabad, a Pakistani army spokesman said.

    Source: Xinhua

    Breaking: India launches missile strikes on three air bases in Pakistan Breaking: India launches missile strikes on three air bases in Pakistan

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Ways you can help a vulnerable person in Canberra

    Source: Northern Territory Police and Fire Services

    In brief:

    • There are many Canberrans who can do with a helping hand.
    • The ACT has many services and initiatives that may be of benefit, whatever the situation.
    • This article features a list of some of these services.

    There are many vulnerable people in our community. Perhaps you know someone who is:

    • at risk
    • chronically unwell
    • unhappy, lonely or isolated
    • elderly or frail
    • facing financial difficulty
    • new to Canberra.

    Whether it’s a family member, neighbour or colleague you’re concerned about, reaching out is a great first step.

    Where relevant, you could help them make a call or fill out a form. You could even go along to an appointment or event with them.

    The list of services below is not exhaustive but may benefit someone you know. Most are free or low cost.

    Help with day-to-day living

    Eligible ACT residents who cannot take their bins out to the kerb, due to chronic illness, frail age or disability, can apply to have this done for them.

    A Companion Card allows people with significant and permanent disabilities to bring a companion for free to certain events and venues.

    Canberrans having difficulty paying for groceries can visit Communities at Work pantries for discounted food and other essentials.

    Communities at Work also provides free clothing, shoes and accessories for job interviews, court, funerals and other important events.

    Canberrans can access free period products throughout the ACT.

    Find more information on cost-of-living assistance.

    Help with transport

    Community bus services are for ACT residents who find it hard to use other forms of transport. They run from Monday to Friday and have flexible routes.

    The ACT Taxi Subsidy Scheme provides financial help to ACT residents with a disability or significant mobility restriction that prevents them from using public and community transport.

    Transport Canberra’s Flexible Bus Service helps Canberrans, such as the aged or people with mobility difficulties, get from their home to local community locations. Booking is required. Carers with a valid carers card are also welcome to travel.

    Special needs transport is available for eligible students. Please check the application open dates and guidelines in advance.

    The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander bus service provides opportunities for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders to connect with their communities and culture in the ACT and surrounding regions.

    More information regarding bus operating and booking hours, eligibility and guidelines for all services is available on Transport Canberra’s website.

    The Fitness to Drive Medical Clinic assesses fitness to drive a motor vehicle.

    Help with health care and wellbeing

    Mobile dental clinics Mobile Dental Clinics are an additional service for aged, school children and vulnerable Canberrans to access dental care in the community.

    Canberrans can access short term loan equipment via the ACT Equipment Loan Service. This is available on referral and includes:

    • mobility aids
    • hoists
    • wheelchairs
    • hospital beds and more.

    This free, short-term service is for anyone being discharged from hospital and for ACT residents needing rehab or to trial equipment.

    Eligible Canberrans with a lifelong or long-term disability  may be able to  access the ACT Equipment Scheme. The scheme can provide long term loan equipment that will help people live at home safely.

    Know someone who already has a mobility aid or appliance? Why not remind them they can have it serviced or repaired through the Clinical Technology Workshop?

    Anyone needing a walking aid can reach out to the Walking Aid Clinic.

    The Canberra Sexual Health Centre offers all Canberrans aged 14 and over professional care without judgment.

    Help is available to Canberrans who have experienced a change in their ability to carry out everyday activities due to a medical or health condition or disability. Brindabella Day and Ambulatory Rehabilitation Service provides a range of rehabilitation therapies.

    Community Care Nursing can assist people with a range of conditions and healthcare needs. It can also be accessed in the home, if medically necessary. Nursing services include wound care, medication management and more.

    Nutrition is a key part of health and wellbeing. The Community Care Nutrition Service offers specialised nutrition services to adults. As well as general healthy eating and nutrition support, the service can advise on chronic health conditions.

    The Liaison and Navigation Service helps adults with complex needs navigate health and other services.

    Adults with a chronic health condition affecting their quality of life may benefit from the Take Control – Live Well program. The three-week program helps people gain the skills and confidence to:

    • take control of their condition/s
    • reach health goals
    • make connections.

    Other services available include:

    You can find a range of other services on the Canberra Health Services website.

    Help to reduce loneliness

    Social isolation and loneliness can be harmful to mental and physical health. Visiting people or inviting them places can be extremely helpful. There is also a variety of ways people can meet others or find a new interest.

    Volunteering can be a great way to find connection and purpose. Canberrans looking for volunteering opportunities, workshops and advice can contact VolunteeringACT.

    There are lots of events happening every day on the Meetup website. From bushwalking to trivia, book clubs to dancing, there’s something to suit every interest.

    Older Canberrans could consider getting involved in an Intergenerational Playgroup through ACT Playgroups. These can help isolated residents and parents to connect.

    Social enterprise Café Stepping Stone runs various events at its Dickson and Strathnairn locations.

    There are also plenty of weird and wacky sports to consider. This is a great way of trying something new and meeting new people at the same time.

    Work-related help

    ACT Women’s Return to Work workshops support women and gender diverse people returning to the workforce with grants and advice on next steps.

    There is a free office skills course and ACT Government work placement for culturally and linguistically diverse Canberrans seeking meaningful employment.

    The ACT Government can help veterans transition from employment in the Australian Defence Force to the ACT Government.

    The RSL Veterans’ Employment Program is a free program helping veterans, family members and partners to find rewarding work.

    Canberrans with a business can get free business support from the Access Canberra Business Assist Team. They can help you understand permits, licenses and approvals.

    The Women’s Legal Centre ACT offers free legal advice to women in low-paid and/or precarious employment who are experiencing problems at work.

    Crisis help

    There is help for those who have experienced domestic and family violence.

    Through a range of support services, Canberrans can apply for financial support following domestic and family violence.

    Canberrans can get help to plan for safety, support children, find accommodation, sort out finances, take legal action and stay safe online.

    Tenants experiencing domestic and family violence can also break a rental lease immediately, if needed.

    There is support available to understand legal options in these circumstances.

    Find more on domestic, family and sexual violence services.

    Communities at Work Crisis Support can give immediate help with food, medical scripts and other essential supports. They can also provide:

    • bus tickets
    • phone vouchers and charging
    • showers
    • hygiene products
    • information and referral services.

    If you know someone who is homeless or at risk of becoming homeless, there is help available. Find out about more services that can help with finding a safe place to stay, getting a free meal, having a shower or doing laundry.

    There are a number of ways you can get help for your mental health in the ACT.

    If you are in crisis or need support after hours, contact:

    If you or a loved one are in an unsafe or life-threatening situation, call triple 000 immediately.

    More avenues for help include:

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    MIL OSI News –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Fatal crash, Mangawhai Road, Wellsford

    Source: New Zealand Police

    A person has died after a single-vehicle crash at Te Arai overnight.

    Police were called to the scene on Mangawhai Road, between Braddick Road and Fairy Hill Road, about 11.15pm, where officers found a vehicle crashed into a tree.

    Sadly, the sole occupant died at the scene and Police are providing support to their next of kin.

    The Serious Crash Unit has carried out a scene examination and enquiries into the crash are ongoing.

    Mangawhai Road reopened about 5am.

    ENDS

    Issued by the Police Media Centre

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-OSI Security: USINDOPACOM Hosts National Defense University Capstone 25-3 Participants

    Source: United States INDO PACIFIC COMMAND

    HONOLULU, Hawaii — U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. Joel Carey, chief of staff for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, welcomed retired Adm. Harry Harris, former U.S. ambassador to South Korea and the 24th USINDOPACOM commander, and the National Defense University Capstone 25-3 Fellows at the USINDPACOM headquarters on Camp H.M. Smith in Honolulu, May 9, 2025.

    MIL Security OSI –

  • MIL-OSI China: Xi urges China, Myanmar to keep advancing key projects of economic corridor

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Myanmar leader Min Aung Hlaing on the sidelines of the celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Soviet Union’s Great Patriotic War in Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    MOSCOW, May 9 — Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday urged China and Myanmar to deepen strategic cooperation and keep advancing the construction of key projects of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor.

    Xi made the remarks while meeting with Myanmar leader Min Aung Hlaing on the sidelines of the celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Soviet Union’s Great Patriotic War.

    China and Myanmar belong to a community with a shared future that shares weal and woe and supports each other, Xi said, adding that the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence and the Bandung Spirit, jointly advocated by China and Myanmar, have grown even stronger over time, with their contemporary value becoming increasingly prominent.

    Noting that this year marks the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries, Xi said China will seek an amicable, secure and prosperous neighborhood, follow the principles of amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness, and share weal and woe with its neighbors.

    China will work with Myanmar to deepen the building of a community with a shared future, advance high-quality Belt and Road cooperation, and implement the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative and the Global Civilization Initiative, bringing greater benefits to the people of the two countries, Xi said.

    Xi recalled that not long ago, a strong earthquake hit Mandalay, Myanmar, causing significant casualties and property damage, saying that China was the first to dispatch rescue teams and provide emergency humanitarian supplies, and stands ready to continue offering assistance to support Myanmar in rebuilding.

    The Chinese side supports Myanmar in pursuing a development path suited to its national conditions, safeguarding its sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity and national stability, and steadily advancing its domestic political agenda, Xi said.

    Xi said it is hoped that Myanmar will take concrete measures to ensure the safety of Chinese personnel, institutions and projects in Myanmar, and intensify efforts to combat cross-border crimes such as online gambling and telecom fraud.

    He urged the two sides to jointly uphold the UN-centered international system and the international order underpinned by international law, and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of developing countries.

    For his part, Min Aung Hlaing said that after Myanmar was struck by the earthquake, China immediately extended sincere condolences, and was the first to provide disaster relief assistance to his country, demonstrating the “Paukphaw” (fraternal) friendship and solidarity in times of hardship towards Myanmar, which the people of Myanmar will forever remember.

    Under the strong leadership of President Xi, China has achieved remarkable progress in advancing Chinese modernization, Min Aung Hlaing said, adding that Myanmar highly values its relations with China and will always be a friendly neighbor that China can trust.

    Min Aung Hlaing said that Myanmar is committed to advancing cooperation with China in areas such as economy and trade, as well as energy, and will make every effort to ensure the safety of Chinese projects and personnel in Myanmar.

    Myanmar highly appreciates the three global initiatives proposed by China and the vision of building a community with a shared future with neighboring countries, and stands ready to work with China to address common challenges, he added.

    Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Myanmar leader Min Aung Hlaing on the sidelines of the celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Soviet Union’s Great Patriotic War in Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI China: Xi calls for advancing building of China-Serbia community with shared future

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on the sidelines of the celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Soviet Union’s Great Patriotic War in Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    MOSCOW, May 9 — Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Friday that China and Serbia should carry forward the ironclad friendship, boost mutually beneficial cooperation and advance the high-quality building of a China-Serbia community with a shared future.

    Xi made the remarks while meeting with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on the sidelines of the celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Soviet Union’s Great Patriotic War.

    Noting his successful state visit to Serbia in May last year, Xi said that over the past year, the building of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in a new era has got off to a good start and the achievements are obvious to all.

    As profound changes unseen in a century continue to unfold across the world amid multiple overlapping risks and challenges, China and Serbia should maintain strategic resolve and concentrate on managing their own affairs well, Xi said.

    China is ready to deepen strategic communication with Serbia, enhance mutual support, strengthen cooperation in trade and investment, continue supporting the construction and operation of relevant projects, give full play to their demonstrative effect, and achieve more outcomes that deliver mutual benefit and win-win results, Xi said.

    Xi stressed that 80 years ago, the peoples of China and Serbia made important contributions to the victory on the Asian and European battlefields in the World Anti-Fascist War, respectively.

    China is ready to work with all countries in the world, including Serbia, to unite and cooperate to meet challenges, jointly safeguard world peace and international fairness and justice, safeguard the achievements of economic globalization, and promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind, Xi said.

    For his part, Vucic said that China is Serbia’s most precious friend, consistently offering selfless support and assistance to help Serbia develop its economy and improve the well-being of its people.

    Serbia firmly adheres to the one-China principle and always believes that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory, he said.

    Serbia is ready to expand economic and trade exchanges with China, Vucic said, adding that his country welcomes more Chinese enterprises to invest and do business in Serbia, and will provide a favorable business environment for them.

    It is hoped that China will actively participate in the 2027 Belgrade Specialized Expo, he said.

    Vucic commends China’s steadfast support for multilateralism, noting that China’s visions and actions have bolstered the international community’s courage and confidence in safeguarding common interests.

    Serbia stands ready to unite with China in addressing the challenges posed by unilateralism and protectionism, Vucic added.

    Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic on the sidelines of the celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Soviet Union’s Great Patriotic War in Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Isabel Schnabel: Keeping a steady hand in an unsteady world

    Source: European Central Bank

    Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Hoover Monetary Policy Conference “Finishing the Job and New Challenges”, Stanford University

    Stanford, 10 May 2025

    Standard theory of monetary policy rests on a simple premise: a stable relationship between inflation and the output gap. This is the logic behind the Phillips curve, which, in its most common form, relates inflation to a measure of economic slack, expected inflation and supply shocks.[1]

    The relationship between output and inflation was already under scrutiny well before the pandemic.

    After the global financial crisis of 2008, inflation didn’t fall nearly as much as had been implied by conventional Phillips curve estimates. And once economies around the world recovered and unemployment fell, the bounce-back in inflation fell short of model predictions.

    This is why that episode is known as the period of “missing deflation” and “missing inflation”.[2]

    The situation changed fundamentally in the aftermath of the pandemic, when the relationship between inflation and the output gap proved to be much stronger than what would have been expected based on historical estimates. We observed a noticeably steeper Phillips curve across advanced economies, including the euro area (Slide 2).[3]

    In my remarks today, I would like to draw lessons from the instability of the Phillips curve over the past 20 years for the optimal conduct of monetary policy. I will argue that the evidence of a re-flattening of the Phillips curve after the long period of high inflation suggests that, in the euro area, the most appropriate policy response to the potential risks to price stability arising from fiscal expansion and protectionism is to keep a steady hand and maintain rates close to where they are today – that is, firmly in neutral territory.

    Monetary policy and the slope of the Phillips curve

    The slope of the Phillips curve has first-order implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

    If the curve is steep, as it appeared to be in recent years, monetary policy is highly effective in reducing inflation, with only a limited impact on growth and employment. The smaller “sacrifice ratio” suggests that central banks should react more forcefully to deviations of inflation from target, even when the economy is hit by a supply shock that pushes inflation up and output down.[4]

    A steep Phillips curve hence improves the trade-off facing central banks, weakening the case for “looking through”, as forceful policy action minimises the risks of inflation expectations unanchoring and of inflation becoming entrenched.[5]

    Policy prescriptions differ fundamentally if the Phillips curve is flat.

    In this case, a large policy impulse is required to move output sufficiently to generate aggregate price effects. It can then be optimal for policy to tolerate moderate deviations of inflation from target, as the cost of closing a small inflation gap relative to the target may exceed the benefits.

    This prescription holds in both directions.

    When inflation is above the target, a flat Phillips curve would require a sharp rise in policy rates to bring medium-term inflation down from, say, 2.3% to 2%. Such a course of action may imply a substantial rise in unemployment and may thus not be welfare-improving for society at large – a trade-off central banks may face during the last mile of disinflation.[6]

    The experience of the 2010s, when inflation was persistently below the target, demonstrates that the argument also holds in the opposite direction.

    If bringing inflation up from 1.7% to 2%, for example, requires purchasing a large fraction of outstanding government bonds and making potentially time-inconsistent promises about the future path of interest rates, then the central bank must consider carefully whether the benefits outweigh the costs, such as making losses in the future, market dysfunction, rising wealth inequality, financial instability and threats to its reputation.[7]

    The role of inflation expectations

    However, the ability to tolerate moderate deviations of inflation from target critically hinges on a firm anchoring of inflation expectations – that is, a low sensitivity of inflation expectations to realised inflation.

    If inflation expectations are well-anchored, policymakers can tolerate moderate deviations from target, as fluctuations in inflation tend to fade away. If, however, inflation expectations are at risk of unanchoring, central banks should act forcefully.[8]

    There are two challenges to this strategy.

    One is that the anchoring of inflation expectations is endogenous. Central banks themselves can cause an unanchoring if inaction in the face of price shocks is perceived as weakening its commitment to securing price stability.[9]

    History shows that it can be costly to reestablish the credibility of the nominal anchor once it has been lost. This is also because inflation expectations are path-dependent. Research shows that the experience of high inflation may raise the sensitivity of inflation expectations to new inflation surprises.[10]

    The other challenge is that different measures of inflation expectations often yield different results (Slide 3). As such, robust trends cannot easily be identified in real time, much like the slope of the Phillips curve.[11]

    Measures of inflation expectations can even point in opposite directions. Research from the early days of the pandemic showed that most consumers expected the pandemic to raise prices, contrary to the views held by professional forecasters at the time.[12]

    State-dependent pricing and tight labour markets can explain steeper Phillips curve and post-pandemic inflation surge

    The recent period of high inflation illustrates how sensitive policy conclusions can be to the assessment of the slope of the Phillips curve and to measures of inflation expectations that central banks use in their analysis.

    Two key theories have been proposed to explain the post-pandemic inflation surge.[13]

    The first relates to firms’ price-setting behaviour.

    Standard New Keynesian models assume that the probability of firms resetting their prices is constant over time. This is a fair description of aggregate price movements when inflation is low and aggregate shocks are small (Slide 4).

    However, the past few years have demonstrated that this “linear” relationship breaks down in the face of large shocks.[14] When marginal costs increase rapidly and threaten to erode profit margins, firms tend to raise their prices more frequently. As a result, the Phillips curve steepens.

    This feedback loop is strongly asymmetric.[15] It acts as an inflation accelerator when firms face positive demand or adverse cost-push shocks.[16] But it does little to firms’ pricing strategies in the face of disinflationary shocks due to downward price rigidities.

    This helps explain why inflation did not fall much when the pandemic broke out but increased sharply after the reopening of our economies (Slide 5).[17]

    The second theory relates to the tightness of the labour market.

    Downward nominal wage rigidity has been a key factor explaining the “missing deflation” in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.[18] If nominal wages do not fall, or fall only very slowly, firms’ marginal costs change only moderately, and hence disinflationary pressures face a natural lower bound, even if slack is large.

    But when the labour market is tight, wages are more flexible as firms outbid each other in securing their desired workforce.

    Benigno and Eggertsson show that this channel led to a non-linear inflation surge in the United States whenever the number of job vacancies exceeded the number of unemployed workers (Slide 6).[19] In the euro area, the threshold was lower, but the curve still exhibited strong signs of non-linearity.

    Rising near-term inflation expectations may have shifted the Phillips curve up

    New research for the United States, however, suggests that the evidence in favour of the second theory is not very robust.

    Specifically, the finding of non-linearity depends critically on which measure is used to control for inflation expectations: non-linearity holds when controlling for expectations of professional forecasters, but it disappears once inflation expectations of households and firms are considered.[20]

    In other words, it is conceivable that the Phillips curve did not become steeper but rather shifted upwards as inflation expectations rose.[21] Non-linearity has also been rejected recently using a similar approach based on regional data for the euro area.[22]

    Moreover, the expectations that are relevant for such an upward shift are not necessarily the longer-term expectations that central banks typically pay most attention to.

    These have remained remarkably stable over the past few years (Slide 7).

    Rather, inflation expectations over the near term, such as the next 12 months, may be more important in driving macroeconomic outcomes.

    Bernanke and Blanchard, for example, show that one-year-ahead inflation expectations explain a significant share of the recent marked rise in nominal wages, and hence inflation, in the United States.[23] Similar evidence has been found for the euro area and other advanced economies.[24]

    Again, there appears to be an asymmetry: the risks that the Phillips curve shifts downwards are substantially lower. Research shows that consumers tend to respond more to inflationary than disinflationary news, as households value increases in their purchasing power and as they pay less attention to inflation when it is low.[25]

    The impact of tariffs on inflation in the euro area

    Understanding the reasons behind the recent inflation surge is not only important from a conceptual perspective. It also matters for setting monetary policy today, as we are once again confronted with historically large shocks.

    For central banks, this is a difficult environment to navigate.

    Memories of high inflation are still fresh after a long period of sharply rising prices. And just as during the pandemic, there is considerable uncertainty about how firms and households are going to respond to shocks that are largely outside the historical empirical range.

    Ultimately, the impact of current shocks on prices and wages, and hence the appropriate monetary policy response, will depend on the shape and location of the Phillips curve.

    Monetary policy should focus on the medium term and underlying inflation

    Let me illustrate this by looking at the euro area.

    Given the lags in policy transmission, the relevant horizon for monetary policy is the medium term. The past few years, however, demonstrated that inflation forecasting at times of large structural shocks is inherently difficult and plagued by large uncertainty.

    For this reason, the ECB and other central banks have increasingly turned to a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, where the observed dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary transmission are used to cross-check the inflation projections.[26]

    This approach remains valid today.[27] But data dependence is not in contrast to being forward-looking.

    In the current situation, the high level of economic uncertainty, together with the sharp fall in energy prices and a stronger euro exchange rate, will likely dampen headline inflation in the short run, potentially pushing it below our 2% target.

    The question is whether these developments provide meaningful signals about the net impact of current shocks on medium-term inflation.

    During the pandemic, for example, a strong appreciation of the euro against the US dollar, by nearly 14% over seven months, and a marked decline in energy prices were followed by a historical inflation surge.

    Data dependency hence requires examining the potential channels through which current shocks could affect underlying inflation over the medium term.

    In the euro area, there are two main forces that could have the size and persistence to pull underlying inflation sustainably away from our 2% medium-term target.

    One is fiscal policy, which is set to expand on a scale unseen outside periods of deep economic contraction.

    Germany has eased its constitutional debt brake for defence-related spending, and has committed to spending €500 billion, or more than 10% of GDP, on infrastructure and the green transition over the next 12 years. In addition, the European Commission has invited Member States to activate the national escape clause to accommodate increased defence expenditure across the EU.

    The impact of these measures on inflation will depend on how they are implemented, especially their impact on the supply side of the economy. But on balance, the fiscal impulse is likely to put upward pressure on underlying inflation over the medium term.

    Global fragmentation is the second force that could have a lasting impact on prices and wages.

    As we speak, the scale and scope of tariffs, the extent of retaliation as well as how financial markets respond to these developments all remain highly uncertain.

    Ongoing negotiations are a sign that mutually beneficial agreements may still be reached. An ideal outcome – the “zero-for-zero” tariff agreement advocated by the European Commission – could even boost growth and employment on both sides of the Atlantic.

    However, should these negotiations fail, the euro area will simultaneously face adverse supply and demand shocks, as the EU has announced that it will retaliate against higher tariffs.

    Similar to the pandemic, assessing the relative strength of these forces is inherently difficult. Overall, however, there are risks that a lasting and meaningful increase in tariffs will reinforce the upward pressure on underlying inflation arising from higher fiscal spending over the medium term.

    To see this, it is useful to look at the factors driving the macroeconomic propagation of tariffs.

    Euro area foreign demand may prove resilient, with limited effects on inflation

    The severity of the negative demand shock will depend on two factors.

    One is the hit to economic activity in the United States and to global demand from raising tariffs across the board. Under the 2 April tariff rates, the United States will face a supply shock of historic proportions. Inflation is poised to rise, real incomes to fall and unemployment to increase. Retaliatory tariffs would weaken the economy further.

    So even in the absence of demand reallocation, foreign demand can be expected to decline if there is a broad increase in tariffs. The depth and persistence of this decline will also depend on other policies, such as tax and spending cuts and deregulation.

    And it will crucially depend on the final outcome of tariff negotiations, which is likely to be far less severe than the 2 April announcement.

    The second factor affecting the severity of the demand shock relates to the degree of demand reallocation – that is, the elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic products. This elasticity is highly uncertain and varies across industries, products and countries.[28]

    However, a robust finding in the literature is that products that are more differentiated tend to be relatively price-inelastic, as they are more difficult to substitute.

    This has great relevance for the euro area, where the bulk of exports to the United States comprise pharmaceuticals, machinery, vehicles and chemicals. These goods are typically highly differentiated (Slide 8, left-hand side).

    For instance, the supply of machines for producing semiconductors is basically monopolised by one Dutch company. Similarly, banknotes in the United States are overwhelmingly printed using machinery from a single German manufacturer.

    These and other machines are not easy to replace in the short run, giving euro area exporters leverage to pass higher costs on to foreign importers and limiting the hit to foreign demand.

    In addition, trade diversion may benefit euro area exports.

    Should prohibitive tariffs on Chinese imports remain in place, they will measurably raise the euro area’s price competitiveness in the US market. This can be expected to stimulate demand for euro area goods if there are no alternatives in the United States itself, especially as the number of industries in which both Chinese and euro area firms have comparative advantages has increased measurably over the past two decades (Slide 8, right-hand side).[29]

    New research corroborates this view.[30] It finds that the euro area stands to win in relative terms from a global trade war, as its net exports to the world will rise rather than fall as global demand is reallocated across the global network, offsetting the hit to domestic consumption.[31]

    In other words, for as long as tariffs are not prohibitive to trade and the uncertainty paralysing activity fades, aggregate euro area foreign demand may prove relatively resilient under a range of potential tariff outcomes.

    The recent appreciation of the euro does not refute this view.

    The euro has gone through two distinct phases since the US presidential election in November last year. It first depreciated in nominal effective terms by 3% until mid-February, before starting to appreciate. So, in net terms, the euro is trading just 2.6% above last year’s average.

    In addition, as most exports to the United States are invoiced in US dollars, the pass-through of changes in the exchange rate to import prices tends to be moderate – by recent estimates just about one-fifth.[32] And potential losses in price competitiveness in third countries are in part compensated by lower import costs, as euro area exports have, on average, a large import content.

    This price inelasticity is also reflected in recent surveys, with manufacturing firms reporting an expansion in output for the first time in more than two years (Slide 9). Also, fewer firms are reporting falling export orders.

    Even if part of these developments may reflect frontloading by firms, it is remarkable how resilient sentiment has remained in the face of the extraordinary increase in economic uncertainty.

    Supply shock puts upward pressure on inflation, reinforced by global supply chains

    The downward effects on inflation caused by lower demand are likely to be offset, partly or even fully, by the supply shock hitting the euro area through retaliatory tariffs imposed by the EU and other economies.

    The strength of this supply shock also depends on two factors.

    One is the extent to which firms pass higher tariffs on to consumers.

    In the United States, evidence from the 2018 tariff increase suggests that, in most cases, the pass-through to import prices was de facto complete.[33] At the same time, many firms chose to absorb part of the increase in import prices in their profit margins, thereby limiting the increase in consumer price inflation, at least in the short run.[34]

    Whether firms will respond similarly to a renewed rise in tariffs in the current environment is uncertain.

    On the one hand, the recent appreciation of the euro, if persistent, provides some margin for euro area firms to buffer cost increases from retaliatory tariffs. On the other hand, profit margins have already been squeezed by high wage growth and a sluggish economy, and the post-pandemic inflation surge may have lowered the bar for firms to pass higher costs on to consumers.

    Overall, recent surveys of companies in the United States and the euro area suggest that they plan to gradually pass higher tariffs on to consumers over the coming years.[35]

    In addition, in order to compensate for the hit to input costs, firms also tend to raise the prices of goods not directly affected by tariffs. There is evidence that retailers broadly adjust price markups even if only a subset of wholesale prices change.[36]

    The second, and related, factor determining the strength of the supply shock relates to global value chains.

    Unlike during the wave of protectionism in the 1930s, today the dominant share of international trade, about 70%, reflects multinational firms distributing production across countries and along the value chain to minimise costs. In this process, parts and components often cross borders many times.

    Prohibitive tariffs between the United States and China are already disrupting supply chains. Shipments of goods are declining, potentially causing future shortages of critical intermediate goods that could reverberate across the world.

    While current conditions are very different from those seen during the pandemic, when supply chain disruptions were a main factor driving the surge in inflation, the impact of tariffs is likely to be amplified as the increase in firms’ marginal costs propagates through the production network.

    ECB staff analysis shows that, even if the EU does not retaliate, higher production costs transmitted through global value chains could more than offset the disinflationary pressure coming from lower foreign demand, making tariffs inflationary overall (Slide 10, left-hand side).[37]

    These effects will become stronger with full retaliation, including intermediate goods. So far, the EU’s retaliatory measures have disproportionately targeted final consumer goods, such as beverages, food and home appliances – precisely to avoid broader cost effects being transmitted through value chains (Slide 10, right-hand side).

    But if the trade conflict intensifies, the scale of retaliation will widen and increasingly include intermediate goods, as these account for nearly 70% of euro area imports from the United States.

    In other words, retaliatory tariffs on intermediate goods would constitute a much broader cost-push shock for euro area firms, reminiscent of the post-pandemic supply chain disruptions.[38]

    It is possible that these effects will be mitigated by China redirecting goods originally destined for the United States towards the euro area and other economies at a discount.

    In practice, however, this mitigation channel is likely to be contained. India, for example, has already raised temporary tariffs on China to curb a surge in imports. Similarly, the European Commission has repeatedly clarified that it intends to protect euro area firms against dumping prices should imports from China rise significantly in response to the evolving trade conflict with the United States.[39]

    Policy implications

    How, then, should the ECB respond to the current shocks?

    The lessons from the post-pandemic surge in inflation suggest that, from today’s perspective, the appropriate course of action is to keep rates close to where they are today – that is, firmly in neutral territory.

    A “steady hand” policy provides the best insurance against a wide range of potential outcomes. In other words, it is robust to many contingencies.

    Specifically, it avoids reacting excessively to volatility in headline inflation at a time when domestic inflation remains sticky and new forces are putting upward pressure on underlying inflation over the medium term. Given lags in policy transmission, an accommodative policy stance could amplify risks to medium-term price stability.

    This steady hand policy also avoids overreacting to concerns that tariffs may destabilise inflation expectations once again.

    In recent months, households’ short-term inflation expectations have reversed and started rising again. According to the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey, expectations for inflation one year ahead increased to 2.9% in March from their trough of 2.4% in September 2024 (Slide 11, left-hand side). Qualitative inflation expectations, as measured by the European Commission, even rose to levels last seen in late 2022 (Slide 11, right-hand side).

    Currently, there are no indications that this rise is persistent, or that inflation expectations are at risk of unanchoring.

    Hence, we can afford to look through the rise in short-term inflation expectations. This could change if we see clear signs of a strong and front-loaded pass-through of potential tariff increases – something that could bring us back to the steep part of the Phillips curve. So far, however, evidence suggests that firms have notably slowed the frequency with which they revise their prices.

    A steady hand policy also addresses risks of a more substantial decline in aggregate demand in response to the trade conflict.

    If tight labour markets were the main culprit for the recent steepening of the Phillips curve, risks of a sharp decline in inflation caused by a rise in unemployment are much more moderate today.

    The reason for this is that in both the United States and the euro area, the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio has fallen markedly and is now at a level that suggests that labour markets are much more balanced (Slide 12).

    We are thus likely to be operating close to, or at, the flat part of the Phillips curve where a change in unemployment has only limited effects on underlying inflation, in stark contrast to the high inflation period.[40]

    We would only need to react more forcefully to the tariff shock if we observed a sharp deterioration in labour market conditions or an unanchoring of inflation expectations to the downside.

    Both seem unlikely at the current juncture.

    Despite the number of vacancies declining, the euro area labour market has proven resilient, with unemployment at a record low. And most measures of medium-term inflation expectations remain tilted to the upside, including those of professional forecasters (Slide 13).

    Conclusion

    My main message today, and with this I would like to conclude, is therefore simple: now is the time to keep a steady hand.

    In the current environment of elevated volatility, the ECB needs to remain focused on the medium term. Given long and variable transmission lags, reacting to short-term developments could result in the peak impact of our policy only unfolding when the current disinflationary forces have passed.

    Over the medium term, risks to euro area inflation are likely tilted to the upside, reflecting both the increase in fiscal spending and the risks of renewed cost-push shocks from tariffs propagating through global value chains.

    Therefore, from today’s perspective, an accommodative monetary policy stance would be inappropriate, also because recent inflation data suggest that past shocks may unwind more slowly than previously anticipated.

    By keeping interest rates near their current levels, we can be confident that monetary policy is neither excessively holding back growth and employment, nor stimulating it. We are thus in a good place to evaluate the likely future evolution of the economy and to take action if risks materialise that threaten price stability.

    Thank you.

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Sullivan Applauds DOT Air Traffic Safety Overhaul with Critical Upgrades & 174 New Weather Stations for Alaska

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Alaska Dan Sullivan
    05.09.25
    ANCHORAGE, ALASKA—U.S. Senator Sullivan (R-Alaska) today celebrated the announcement from the Department of Transportation (DOT) of a new effort to build a state-of-the-art air traffic control system to enhance safety in the sky, reduce delays, and provide air traffic controllers with modern, reliable equipment. This overhaul includes several Alaska-specific provisions, including the addition of 174 new weather stations for the state and a modernization of flight service systems. These upgrades follow Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy’s commitment to Sen. Sullivan to strongly support Alaska aviation safety, especially as Alaska faces an aviation accident rate 2.35 times higher than the national average.
    Sen. Sullivan spoke about this historic announcement today on Fox News Channel’s “America Reports.”
    “We need to keep our aviation system the safest in the world, but it is creaking and falling apart. No state is more aware of this challenge than Alaska, with dozens of communities off the road system and wholly reliant on aviation, and an air traffic control system responsible for the heavily-trafficked aviation routes between North America and Asia,” said Sen. Sullivan. “President Trump and Secretary Duffy have shown tremendous leadership, outlining bold, top-to-bottom reforms to our air traffic control system and marshalling the support of all stakeholders—the unions of our FAA and ATC employees, industry, and lawmakers. Importantly, the President and the Secretary announced their support for 174 new weather stations just for Alaska, which could be transformative for aviation safety in our great state. I’ll continue working closely with Secretary Duffy and my colleagues on securing the necessary funding for achieving this much-needed overhaul and prioritizing the unique needs of Alaska.”

    Click here or the image above to watch Sen. Sullivan’s interview.
    Below is a summary of DOT’s intended upgrades for air traffic control and safety infrastructure in Alaska and across the United States:
    Replacing antiquated telecommunications with new fiber, wireless and satellite technologies at over 4,600 sites, 25,000 new radios and 475 new voice switches. 
    Replacing 618 radars which have gone past their life cycle. 
    Addressing runway safety by increasing the number of airports with Surface Awareness Initiative (SAI) to 200. 
    Building six new air traffic control centers for the first time since the 1960s and replacing towers and TRACONs. 
    Installing new modern hardware and software for all air traffic facilities to create a common platform system throughout towers, TRACONs and centers.    
    Addressing the unique challenges that face Alaska by adding 174 new weather stations. 
    Below is a timeline of Sen. Sullivan’s recent work on aviation safety in Alaska and across the country:
    On April 9, 2025, The FAA announced a $25 million investment in Alaska aviation safety, a result of a Sullivan provision in the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024 authorizing $25 million annually for FAA Alaska Aviation Safety Initiative (FAASI) from FY 2025 through 2028. The FAA also announced it will be expanding the FAA’s use of satellites in Alaska—growing from four testing sites to 16—to help support connectivity at weather monitoring sites, particularly in the more remote parts of the state. Alaska has long had issues with reliable weather information for the aviation community. The 2024 reauthorization, of which Senator Sullivan was an author, required the FAA to fix telecommunications connections to address those needs.
    On February 11, 2025, Sen. Sullivan led a press conference with Senator Lisa Murkowski and Representative Nick Begich (both R-Alaska), Secretary Duffy, and National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Chair Jennifer Homendy regarding their shared focus on enhancing aviation safety in Alaska.
    On January 15, 2025, Sen. Sullivan received commitments from former Representative Sean Duffy (R-Wisc.), President Trump’s nominee to be Secretary of Transportation, regarding transportation challenges in Alaska and the vital need to expand critical infrastructure. Specifically, Sen. Sullivan received commitments from Duffy to visit Alaska, continue to fund the Essential Air Service Program, support the FAASI, and work toward much-needed permitting reform.
    On May 9, 2024, the Senate passed the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024 with numerous Sullivan-authored provisions related to aviation safety in Alaska, including support for the FAASI and a requirement for FAA to improve maintenance of weather equipment. The bill was signed into law on May 16, 2024.
    In September of 2021, the FAA established the FAASI, an FAA effort to respond to the February 2020 NTSB Report and the Alaska Aviation Safety Summit. The FAASI identifies safety improvements and investments for the Alaska Region, and aims to make progress on the effort for FAA and DOT to take a holistic view of DOT programs to ensure that inherent bias no longer inhibits infrastructure investments in remote Alaska Native communities.
    On October 8, 2020, Sen. Sullivan worked with previous FAA Administrator Dickson to host the Alaska Safety Summit, which was focused solely on Alaska aviation issues. The Senator pressed the administration to take a holistic view to solve the problems presented in Alaska.
    The Senate passed the 2018 FAA Reauthorization Act, including multiple Sullivan-authored provisions focused on Alaska aviation safety, including enabling the acquisition of new weather reporting and navigation infrastructure.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Canada: G7 Foreign Ministers’ statement on India and Pakistan

    Source: Government of Canada News

    May 9, 2025 – Ottawa, Ontario – Global Affairs Canada

    We, the G7 Foreign Ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States of America and the High Representative of the European Union, strongly condemn the egregious terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22 and urge maximum restraint from both India and Pakistan. Further military escalation poses a serious threat to regional stability. We are deeply concerned for the safety of civilians on both sides.

    We call for immediate de-escalation and encourage both countries to engage in direct dialogue towards a peaceful outcome. We continue to monitor events closely and express our support for a swift and lasting diplomatic resolution.

    MIL OSI Canada News –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Advocacy – Aotearoa New Zealand Stands in Solidarity: Keffiyeh Day, May 11, 2025 Announced

    Source: Palestine Forum of New Zealand

    Auckland, New Zealand – Communities across Aotearoa New Zealand are coming together to mark Keffiyeh Day on May 11, 2025 – a day of solidarity, cultural pride, and resistance in support of the Palestinian people.

    On this day, people from all walks of life are encouraged to wear the iconic Palestinian keffiyeh (scarf) – a symbol of resilience, identity, and resistance – to raise awareness about the ongoing struggle for justice and human rights in Palestine.

    Keffiyeh Day is more than a cultural celebration; it is a powerful statement of unity. In workplaces, schools, universities, and public spaces, New Zealanders will proudly don the keffiyeh to amplify Palestinian voices and stand against oppression and injustice.

    “The keffiyeh has become a global emblem of solidarity. In wearing it, we honour Palestinian heritage and reaffirm our collective commitment to justice, freedom, and dignity for all,” said Maher Nazzal, chair of the Palestine Forum of New Zealand.

    Events on the Day Include:

    Community gatherings and photo calls

    Workplace and campus solidarity actions

    Educational workshops and cultural displays

    A nationwide social media campaign using the hashtag #KeffiyehDayNZ

    Organized by the Palestine Forum of New Zealand, Keffiyeh Day is part of a growing global movement to keep Palestine visible on the international stage and ensure that Palestinian narratives continue to be heard.

    We warmly invite individuals, community groups, organizations, and public figures across Aotearoa to participate in Keffiyeh Day 2025 and show their solidarity.

    Maher Nazzal
    Founder, Palestine Forum of New Zealand

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Health Bureau and Hospital Authority jointly organise second District Council briefing on fees and charges reform for public healthcare

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

    Health Bureau and Hospital Authority jointly organise second District Council briefing on fees and charges reform for public healthcare 
         The Deputising Chief Executive of the HA, Dr Simon Tang, introduced in detail to the audience the three key measures for strengthening healthcare protection, namely, enhancing the medical fee waiver mechanism, introducing an annual cap of $10,000 for public healthcare fees and charges, and optimising the application and subsidisation of innovative drugs and medical devices. He said, “The HA will continue to refine the implementation of the measures, including streamlining the application procedures for the medical fee waiver and safety net, to ensure the smooth implementation of the reform.”
     
         Since the announcement of the fees and charges reform for public healthcare, the HHB and the HA have been explaining the matter to the Legislative Council, members of the public and stakeholders of various sectors, with a view to helping members of the public get a better grasp of the objectives and specific details of the reform. This is the second DC briefing jointly organised by the HHB and the HA after the one held on April 29. 
         The new fees and charges for public healthcare will take effect on January 1 next year. The HHB and the HA will continue to actively explain the details to members of the public.
    Issued at HKT 17:55

    NNNN

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Hong Kong Customs detects three sea smuggling cases with goods worth about $120 million seized (with photos)

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

    ​Hong Kong Customs on April 30 and May 1 detected three sea smuggling cases involving ocean-going vessels. A large batch of suspected smuggled electronic goods and parts with a total estimated market value of about $120 million was seized.

    Through intelligence analysis and risk assessment, Customs on April 30 and May 1 identified two ocean-going vessels preparing to depart from Hong Kong for Pakistan and Thailand respectively at the Kwai Chung Container Terminals for inspection. A large batch of suspected smuggled electronic goods and parts, including central processing units, computer desktops, servers, hard disks and computer accessories, was seized inside five containers.

    An investigation is ongoing. The likelihood of arrests is not ruled out.

    Customs is the primary law enforcement agency responsible for tackling smuggling activities and has long been combating various smuggling activities on all fronts. Customs will keep up its enforcement action and continue to resolutely combat sea smuggling activities through proactive risk management and intelligence-based enforcement strategies, and carry out targeted anti-smuggling operations at suitable times to crack down on related crimes.

    Smuggling is a serious offence. Under the Import and Export Ordinance, any person found guilty of importing or exporting unmanifested cargo is liable to a maximum fine of $2 million and imprisonment for seven years upon conviction.

    Members of the public may report any suspected smuggling activities to Customs’ 24-hour hotline 182 8080 or its dedicated crime-reporting email account (crimereport@customs.gov.hk) or online form (eform.cefs.gov.hk/form/ced002).

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Get ready for the HKDSE Examination results release

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

    The results of the 2025 Hong Kong Diploma of Secondary Education (HKDSE) Examination will be released on 16 July. To facilitate Secondary 6 (S6) students’ early planning for the way forward, the Education Bureau (EDB) will continue to provide them with appropriate support and latest information on multiple pathways.

    On the “Designated Webpage for S6 Students” (the “Webpage”) (https://www.edb.gov.hk/s6/en) updated by the EDB in a timely manner, students can obtain essential information related to the HKDSE Exam results release, further studies in local/ non-local institutions, multiple pathways, and counselling and support services. The “Reminders for 2025 HKDSE Exam and Exam Results Release” section on the “Webpage” features clear visuals and concise text highlighting the important dates and points to note for students’ easy reference.

    In addition, students can access the electronic tool “e-Navigator” (https://enavigator.edb.hkedcity.net/main/index.php) through the “Webpage” to search for matching local institution programmes and to formulate an appropriate plan for further studies by inputting their predicted or actual HKDSE Examination results.

    To better prepare S6 students and their parents for the results release ahead of time, the EDB will organise an online parents’ seminar titled “Get prepared for the HKDSE Examination Results Release – the Latest Information on Multiple Pathways” on 10 June 2025 (Tuesday). The seminar will cover various topics including the EDB’s support measures for S6 students, arrangements for the HKDSE results release, procedures for programme choice modification and results release through the Joint University Programmes Admissions System (JUPAS), and the latest information on non-JUPAS programmes and multiple pathways. Registration for the seminar is now open. For details, please visit the EDB “Parents’ Talks” webpage (https://www.edb.gov.hk/parentstalks) (Chinese version only). The presentation slides (Chinese and English versions) and video recording of the seminar will be uploaded to the “One-stop Portal on Articulation to Multiple Pathways‧Transition to Senior Secondary and Post-secondary Education” website (https://www.edb.gov.hk/amp/en) in late June 2025 for public reference.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Speech by CE at reception in celebration of establishment of Consulate-General of Uruguay in Hong Kong (English only) (with photos/video)

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

         Following is the speech by the Chief Executive, Mr John Lee, at the reception in celebration of the establishment of the Consulate-General of Uruguay in Hong Kong today (May 9):

    Your Excellency Minister Mario Lubetkin (Minister of Foreign Affairs of Uruguay), Your Excellency Ambassador Fernando Lugris (Ambassador of Uruguay to China), Consul-General Federico Lage Cabeza (Consul-General of Uruguay to Hong Kong), Commissioner Cui Jianchun (Commissioner of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region), distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, 

         Good afternoon. It is a great pleasure to be here on this important occasion – the establishment and opening, in Hong Kong, of the Consulate-General of the Oriental Republic of Uruguay.

         The opening of the Consulate-General is testament to the long-standing, and growing, ties between China and Uruguay, and it is important to note that the two countries have now enjoyed diplomatic relations for 37 years, with their relations elevated to comprehensive strategic partnership status in 2023.

         In March, President Xi Jinping’s special envoy, the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Mr Han Jun, attended the inauguration ceremony of the President of Uruguay. Minister Han conveyed China’s wish to deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries, and boost bilateral trade in goods and services. 

         Hong Kong and Uruguay also maintain good relations in trade. In 2024, our bilateral merchandise trade rose 8.8 per cent over the previous year, to more than US$120 million. You probably note that the number eight is considered a lucky number for Chinese people. So the double eights here in this 8.8 per cent growth are music of double luckiness to my ears.

         Our increased trade, and the opening, today of the Uruguay’s Consulate-General, underlines the long-term promise of our economic prospects and people-to-people ties.

         Uruguay, after all, is a high-income economy built on free market policies in Latin America, with a large middle class which is strong and growing. It’s also a founding member of Mercosur, or the Southern Common Market, which has a population nearing 300 million. Uruguay, I’m pleased to add, is a participant in our country’s Belt and Road Initiative.

         Under the “one country, two systems” principle, Hong Kong enjoys our country’s strong support, and maintains unparalleled connectivity with the world. I thank Commissioner Cui for telling so much about the ingredients and success factors of Hong Kong under “one country, two systems”. Hong Kong maintains unparalleled connectivity with the world that includes our pivotal roles in such national strategies as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The Greater Bay Area is a cluster city that counts Hong Kong, Macao and nine prosperous cities in Southern China. 

         The Greater Bay Area boasts a collective population exceeding 87 million and a combined GDP rivalling the world’s 10th largest economy. It gives Hong Kong a high-end consumer market more than 10 times larger than what our city’s alone can offer.

         We are Asia’s largest financial centre and the world’s third largest, behind only New York and London. Not surprisingly, Hong Kong also ranked fourth and fifth, globally, in foreign direct investment inflows and outflows. 

         As the world’s largest offshore Renminbi service centre, Hong Kong is a critical investment hub linking investment sources and destinations between Mainland China, Southeast Asian markets, and the world. 

         Like Uruguay and our country, Hong Kong is committed to free trade and the multilateral trading system. Goods, capital, people and information flow freely here – and it always will. In spite of challenges posed by emerging protectionism and geopolitical tensions, we strongly believe that free and open trade is key to our pursuit of high-quality development, together with a world of investors and economies.

         Hong Kong’s commitment to the rule of law and a judiciary that exercises its powers independently, to our common law system, and to protecting the rights of our people and businesses, is no less fundamental to our economy, our community and our future. 

         Hong Kong, in brief, is the ideal gateway for Uruguayan companies, and investors, looking to tap into the far-reaching promise of Mainland China and the rest of Asia.

         Beyond business, arts and culture – including the art and culture of eating and drinking well – is as central to life in Hong Kong as I know in Uruguay. Hong Kong, after all, is the rising East-meets-West arts and cultural centre; it is also a hub for international exchange.

         Ladies and gentlemen, the formal establishment and opening, today, of the Consulate-General of Uruguay in Hong Kong marks an auspicious new stage in the growing relations between our two economies, and our two peoples. 

         The Hong Kong SAR Government, and the businesses and people of Hong Kong, welcome you, and look forward to working with you. Thank you.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Speech by FS at Inauguration Ceremony of Von Neumann Institute, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (English only) (with photo/video)

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

    Following is the speech by the Financial Secretary, Mr Paul Chan, at the Inauguration Ceremony of Von Neumann Institute, the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) today (May 9):

    Consul General (Consul General of Hungary in Hong Kong, Dr Pál Kertész), Harry (the Council Chairman of the HKUST, Professor Harry Shum), Nancy (the President of the HKUST, Professor Nancy Ip), Professor Jia (the Director of Von Neumann Institute, HKUST, Professor Jiaya Jia), Clara (the Chief Executive Officer of Hong Kong Investment Corporation, Ms Clara Chan), distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen,

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –