Category: Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Samsung Electronics Showcases Galaxy’s PC-Level Gaming With #PlayGalaxy Cup at TwitchCon San Diego 2024

    Source: Samsung

     
    Samsung Electronics hosted the second #PlayGalaxy Cup at TwitchCon San Diego 2024 on September 21, offering participants a firsthand look at the powerful gaming capabilities of the Galaxy S24 Ultra.
     
    Partnering with global game streaming platform Twitch and game publisher Tencent’s popular battle royale game PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds (PUBG) Mobile, Samsung staged a high-stakes showdown for streamers and gamers — proving that a PC isn’t necessary for immersive, thrilling gameplay.
     
    Sixteen of the world’s most popular streamers and professional e-sport gamers were divided into two teams that used PCs and Galaxy S24 Ultra devices for the competition.
     
    Equipped with keyboards and mice, the PC team featured star streamers Ludwig, Cinna and HutchMF as well as e-sport gamer TeeP.
     
    PUBG Mobile pro gamer Xifan and gaming content creators Bella Fox and Wynnsanity were armed with the Galaxy S24 Ultra devices on the mobile team. Thanks to the Qualcomm Snapdragon® 8 Gen 3 chipset, larger vapor chamber for improved heat management and industry-leading Dynamic AMOLED 2X display, the Galaxy S24 Ultra devices offered a new, lag-free gaming experience.
     

     

     
    While 300 fans witnessed the #PlayGalaxy Cup in person, the action was livestreamed globally via Twitch by streamer and former pro gamer NiceWigg — amassing 1.9 million views and more than 42,000 active viewers tuning in at one time. Twitch star Summit1G, one of PUBG Mobile’s partner streamers, also got in on the fun by broadcasting the tournament on his respective channel and captivating audiences around the world.
     
    “I never thought I’d experience such smooth gameplay on a mobile device,” said Farooq Amad of the winning team. “It’s incredible to see the level of gaming that can be achieved on mobile, and the Galaxy S24 Ultra has certainly raised the bar.”
     
    “This competition was designed to show that a PC-level gaming experience is possible on mobile,” said Saejin Kim, Vice President and Head of Marketing Strategy Group, Mobile eXperience Business at Samsung Electronics. “We hope that both PC and mobile gamers enjoy their favorite titles on the Galaxy S24 Ultra.”
     
    With the #PlayGalaxy Cup, Samsung continues to break the boundaries of traditional mobile gaming through thrilling, PC-like performance that brings gamers to the edge of their seats.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Secretary-General of ASEAN delivers remarks at the China-ASEAN Young Leaders’ Roundtable

    Source: ASEAN

    Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, today delivered remarks at the China-ASEAN Young Leaders’ Roundtable Dialogue in Nanning, China, where he commended the youth for their commitment to building connections and engaging in meaningful discussions about the future of ASEAN-China relations. The Roundtable Dialogue also featured the presentation of certificates to the participants in the China-ASEAN Young Leaders’ Growth Program.

    Download the full remarks here.

    The post Secretary-General of ASEAN delivers remarks at the China-ASEAN Young Leaders’ Roundtable appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

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  • MIL-OSI Economics: Quality Jobs and the Future of Work in Asia and the Pacific: Impacts of a Triple Transition—Demographic, Digital, and Green

    Source: Asia Development Bank

    The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. It assists its members and partners by providing loans, technical assistance, grants, and equity investments to promote social and economic development.

    Headquarters

    6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550, Metro Manila, Philippines

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  • MIL-OSI Economics: Funding Developing Asia’s Old-Age Needs: Challenges and Opportunities

    Source: Asia Development Bank

    The paper also finds that labor income will play a smaller role in funding the region’s old-age needs, while public and private transfers will play a larger role. While expanding public transfers will contribute toward old-age economic security, the region must carefully plan such expansion and avoid unsustainable generosity to safeguard the macroeconomic stability that underpinned its rapid economic growth and development.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Samsung’s New Health Software Development Kit Suite Powers Advancements in Healthcare Innovation

    Source: Samsung

    Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. today introduced a new Samsung Health Software Development Kit (SDK) Suite. Designed to better support developers and researchers in creating innovative healthcare solutions, the SDK Suite leverages Samsung’s advanced sensor technology and comprehensive Samsung Health platform.1 The new complete package of sensor, data, accessory and research stack components is now readily accessible to an expanded range of partners, developers and researchers.
    Sensor SDK: Fueling Health Services Development through Advanced Sensor Technology
    The Sensor SDK provides developers with Samsung’s powerful BioActive Sensor algorithm on the Galaxy Watch2, empowering them to explore new sectors of health services and create advanced new solutions. The BioActive Sensor measures a diverse range of health metrics including heart rate3, skin temperature, electrocardiogram (ECG)4 and Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis (BIA). A notable update features continuous access to Photoplethysmogram (PPG) Infrared (IR) and Red LED sensor data for the first time. This advancement will help enhance health services related to blood oxygen level (SpO2)5 to improve sleep quality and beyond. The upgraded BIA now provides additional measurements—magnitude and degree—expanding on the existing eight indicators6, including skeletal muscle mass and body fat mass, to present more precise body composition7 analysis to offer deeper insights into overall physical health.

    Data SDK: Comprehensive Health Insights Unlock New Value in Health Services
    Starting from October, the newly added Data SDK enables developers to utilize integrated health data gathered from diverse devices such as Galaxy Watch, Galaxy Ring, smartphones or even third-party devices to create innovative digital health solutions. Data SDK provides access to health metrics on the Samsung Health app—including sleep8, exercise, food intake, and blood glucose levels—analyzed by its advanced algorithm. These streamlined insights generated by Samsung Health enable developers to enhance their productivity when developing the healthcare services.
    Accessory SDK: Holistic Health Insights from Various Health Devices in One Place
    With Accessory SDK, developers can integrate compatible third-party heath devices—such as fitness devices like bike sensors, heart rate monitors and even glucose monitors—through the Samsung Health app. This makes it easy to view health status information in one place without activating separate third-party apps, promoting a seamless and simplified experience and expanding the ecosystem for end-to-end health management.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: German economy: rising to the challenges | Speech delivered at the invitation of the German association of family businesses

    Source: Bundesbank

    Check against delivery.

    1 Introduction

    Ladies and gentlemen,

    I am delighted to be able to speak before you today, as representatives of Hessian family businesses. Family businesses play a significant role for the German economy and German society.

    In cooperation with the audit firm EY, the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland compiles the Global Family Business Index.[1] It lists the 500 largest family businesses in the world. And, last year, 78 businesses on this list – nearly 16% – were located in Germany. This puts Germany in second place behind the United States, which, however, has nearly five times the GDP of Germany. According to EY data, these 78 businesses generated the equivalent of just over €1 trillion in revenues in 2023.[2] Germany’s share of total revenues is therefore just over 10%. And, let it be noted, these are merely the largest and highest-revenue family enterprises.

    However, when we talk about family businesses, it is naturally not just numbers that come to mind. It’s about much more than that, not least about tradition. What I often hear in this context is that “family businesses think in terms of generations, not quarterly reports”. For me, staying power is a good and important quality to have in order to comprehensively rise to challenges and overcome them sustainably. And we are currently facing our share of challenges; of that there is no doubt. I am referring to macroeconomic challenges, which also matter to family businesses.

    Once a year, the Society for the German Language (Gesellschaft für die deutsche Sprache) chooses several terms as “Words of the Year”. Krisenmodus – “crisis mode” – took first place last year.[3] The term Krisenmodus will probably ring a bell if you look back across the past few years: the COVID19 pandemic, disintegrating supply chains, high energy prices. This has also left its mark on economic growth, which, this year, will remain weak as well.

    In my speech, I want to discuss in depth the factors that are still continuing to gnaw away at growth. These factors can be either temporary or also permanent in nature. My focus will be on the permanent factors, as we have to address these structural factors in order to make long-term progress. I will subsequently discuss which economic policy measures can specifically help overcome the current weak growth. However, let me first put the current period of economic weakness into context. How serious is the situation really?

    2 Are Germany’s days as an industrial superpower coming to an end?

    In the first half of 2024, like last year, Germany ranked among the laggards in terms of growth in the euro area. German GDP more or less stagnated in the first six months of the year, whereas the euro area average picked up markedly. Germany does not come off favourably in a global comparison, either. The advanced economies’ collective GDP rose by 0.5% in the spring, and of these, the United States even saw a 0.7% increase.

    Third-quarter economic figures for Germany have likewise remained weak. All the while, the media seem to be trying to outdo each other with horror stories about the German economy. “Germany’s days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end” was, for instance, the title of a Bloomberg article in February on the current economic situation in Germany.[4] We read further on in that story that the “underpinnings of Germany’s industrial machine have fallen like dominoes”.

    Just a cursory look back over the history of our economy shows us this: there is nothing inherently new about such headlines and debates. Germany weathered a pronounced slump around the turn of the millennium. Bloomberg Businessweek titled the cover page of its February 2003 issue “The decline of Germany”.[5] And, at the end of 2004, German author Gabor Steingart published a book titled Deutschland – der Abstieg eines Superstars (Germany – The decline of a superstar).[6] Is that painful crisis threatening to repeat itself? Are we in decline?

    Without wanting to get ahead of myself: we are undoubtedly in a midst of a difficult transformation process. But it’s a process we have the power to shape. And if we shape it right, then my clear response is: No, in my opinion Germany is not in decline! How is today’s situation in Germany different from that at the turn of the millennium? Let’s take a look at the numbers.

    At that time, the unemployment rate as calculated by the International Labour Organization (ILO) stood at over 9% on average; it is now 3.3%, and thus also well below the euro area average of 6.5%. Back then, the most pressing labour market problem was unemployment; now, it is the shortage of skilled workers.

    Moreover, German firms’ profitability and capital base are much better now than they were 25 years ago. As a case in point, the average capital ratio was 23% then, whereas in the 2020 to 2022 period it averaged 30%. The profit margin went up from 3.4% at the time to 4.5% in the 2020 to 2022 period. These data are subject to a major time lag, which is why we do not yet have any numbers for 2023.

    However, what are the reasons for the current feeble growth dynamics? The energy crisis had an outsized impact on Germany, an exporting country where manufacturing has a special status. As, before the outbreak of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, dependency on inexpensive Russian energy deliveries was high – too high. Moreover, the fallout from the high inflation weighed on the economy. Many consumers kept their purse strings tight. In addition, the restrictive monetary policy is dampening economic activity. And last but not least, industry continues to be impacted by weak foreign demand, particularly because our euro area trading partners’ imports rose less strongly than world trade. What we know for sure is that some of these factors are only temporary. We therefore assume that Germany’s economy will be able to slowly regain some momentum.

    3 Structural challenges

    Some factors, however, have a longer-term effect. We are facing extensive structural challenges which can likewise dampen growth. To wit, energy costs are set to remain higher than before Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine for quite a while to come. The price of natural gas fell from some €240 per kilowatt hour in August 2022 to €30 in early 2024, before then bouncing back up to around €38 in August of this year, still well above the average price of €13 in the pre-crisis year of 2019.

    But the desired transition to a carbon-free energy supply will be costly as well, at least over a relatively long transition period. Plus there are further challenges such as demographic change, the reduction of unilateral dependence on imports and fragmentation of international trade.

    The transition to a climate-neutral economy, above all, will require massive investment. On this point, a study commissioned by the KfW Group estimated the volume of investment needed to reach Germany’s net-zero targets by mid-century. The result: around €5 trillion. [7] A McKinsey study even puts the figure higher still, at €6 trillion.[8] And just like when you retrofit an old building to improve its energy efficiency, that number includes investment that will be made in any event. But the estimated incremental investment is considerable, too. The KfW study puts this at around €72 billion per year, or just under 2% of German GDP.

    And even though the comprehensive digitalisation process that needs to take place will offer huge opportunities, it, too, will require investment, not to mention training or reconceptualising of processes and business lines. But how is investment faring in Germany at the moment? Let’s take a look at the statistics.

    They show that investment in buildings, machinery and equipment, and other assets in Germany has not grown over the past few years. And declining investment was a key factor behind the slight contraction in economic output in the second quarter. But not just that: in a recent analysis the audit firm EY found that the number of foreign investment projects in Germany has dropped for the past six years in a row.[9] All things considered, despite the aforementioned challenges and the need for investment that they entail, there is currently no indication of an investment boom.

    But what are the reasons for this weak investment propensity? We have investigated this question through our business survey, the Bundesbank Online Panel – Firms. In it, around 7,400 German firms were asked in the third quarter of 2023 about their motives for investment. We published the results in the May edition of our Monthly Report.[10]

    The poor macroeconomic setting was evidently the key reason for declining investment. This was closely followed by high energy and wage costs, a shortage of skilled workers, uncertainty about regulation, and high taxes and public levies. Low public funding, inefficient public administration and poor digital infrastructure played a lesser role. These findings may be a year old, but there is much to suggest that they remain valid.

    4 The tasks of economic policy

    This brings us to the following question: what can economic policy do to remove barriers to investment, or at least mitigate them? One thing it certainly cannot do is directly influence the challenging global setting. For certain other barriers, however, it is very much possible and preferable to tackle them through economic policy. I would like to address three such areas: energy and climate policy, bureaucratic hurdles and the labour market.

    4.1 Energy and climate policy

    The first area primarily concerns planning certainty and reliability in energy and climate policy. The terms planning certainty and reliability were not plucked out of thin air, as shown by the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Developed by the economists Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis, this index is based on the analysis of pertinent newspaper articles.[11] According to the index, economic policy uncertainty in Germany has risen much more strongly over the past few years than the average for Europe.[12] Deciding to invest in green technologies is mostly tied up with irreversible costs. So where there is uncertainty about future policy, firms understandably hesitate before making such decisions.

    Now, there is no doubt about the basic direction we’re heading in: we have to become carbon neutral if we care even just a little for the welfare of subsequent generations. But when it comes to the details, there is indeed uncertainty. How will the costs of fossil fuels develop? How will the costs of environmentally friendly energy develop and will there be a reliable supply? What will government regulation, taxation, and support look like?

    To reduce these kinds of uncertainties about the energy transition, it is vital that we have a transparent, purposeful and consistent overall framework. This framework includes having sufficient capacity to import and store climate-neutral energy, and back-up power plants for the event that a dunkelflaute – a period with no wind or sunlight – coincides with a period of high energy needs. And, of course, an efficient energy grid. It will therefore be increasingly important, too, to expand power lines connecting Germany from north to south, but also connecting us to our neighbours in Europe.

    The Bundesbank believes that the key instrument to achieve climate objectives should be a price on carbon emissions. This is because carbon pricing ensures that savings and investment are made where it is possible to do so with the lowest costs. However, the crucial thing is to apply carbon pricing as broadly, uniformly and predictably as possible.

    Ambitious carbon pricing not only creates incentives for the use of renewable energy, but also for greater energy efficiency. Our April Monthly Report showed how important advancements in energy efficiency are to not missing climate targets.[13] Increases in energy efficiency reduce aggregate energy intensity and thereby boost aggregate production. They thus counteract the activity-dampening stimuli likely to emanate from a higher carbon price.

    So the production losses or gains that would be associated with achieving climate goals depend not least on energy-saving technological progress. Besides carbon pricing, subsidies for research and development are one conceivable instrument to increase energy efficiency. However, subsidies should be used in a measured and purposeful manner.

    I’m not just concerned about the burden on government finances, which we naturally have to keep an eye on as well. When government interventions become too complex and too extensive, they can significantly distort market incentives. It is possible, for example, that firms keep putting off the necessary investment in the hopes of receiving future subsidies. Some subsidies still in place in the energy and transportation sectors actually run counter to the climate goals. To a certain extent, they therefore act in the same way as a negative carbon price.[14] And last but not least, excessive government intervention ultimately leads to bureaucratic hurdles.

    4.2 Bureaucratic hurdles

    That brings me to the second area where economic policy can improve the investment climate: the burden of bureaucracy. We should make a distinction between two different aspects here. First, there is the extent of requirements placed on firms. For example, there has recently been intense debate about the Supply Chain Act and questions surrounding data protection. In this respect, politicians should make sure they don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater. Even if the objectives are legitimate, the ability to implement measures has to be borne in mind.

    Second, the speed of bureaucracy is important. In Germany, congestion occurs not just on the motorways but also in approval processes. It can sometimes take years for a wind turbine to go into operation, say. When it comes to the pace and efficiency of bureaucracy, especially, we should consider digitalisation as a huge opportunity. Digital technologies can simplify and streamline administrative processes. Incidentally, that is very much in the interest of the administration seeing as it, too, is affected by the shortage of skilled workers. It would appear somewhat logical to bundle more processes when it comes to the digitalisation of administration.

    That means the targeted transferral of responsibilities to central units, which develop harmonised approaches in a cost-effective way. This would open the door to achieving economies of scale, if the relevant costs per process are reduced thanks to a larger area of application, say. What I’m thinking about here is the digitalisation of the tax administration, for instance. It could likely leverage efficiency reserves if certain tasks were delegated to a single unit. A modern form of federalism could also help us to leverage efficiency reserves, specifically when those responsible actually learn from the best practices of others.

    And I’m speaking on this not just as an economist, but also as the president of a large public authority. Dismantling bureaucracy and driving digitalisation often require enormous effort and persistence. But they also present huge opportunities. There’s a reason why the Society for the German Language listed “AI boom” as another “Word of the Year” in 2023, ranking it number eight.

    4.3 Labour market

    The third area where economic policy can play an important role is the labour market. You, as operators of businesses, have been complaining of a shortage of skilled workers for many years now. Quite apart from the current bout of economic weakness, the problem has been increasingly exacerbated by demographic change. And it will become even greater in the future.

    The number of vacancies per unemployed person is often used as an indicator of tightness in the labour market. Up until 2014, there were around three vacancies for every 10 unemployed persons.[15] At the moment, there are roughly six jobs available for every ten unemployed persons. And the number of vacancies has also climbed to an all-time high since the end of the pandemic and is barely coming down. There is a shortage of skilled workers, and a shortage of labour.

    There is a host of conceivable measures to reduce this shortage: open up better employment opportunities for women and older people, make a targeted play for skilled workers from abroad, strengthen vocational and further training, and do a better job of getting the long-term unemployed and immigrants into work.

    Equally, we shouldn’t lose sight of the groups that so far haven’t participated in the labour market – known as the “hidden reserve”. According to the Federal Statistical Office, Germany’s hidden reserve recently came to almost 3.2 million people.[16] Close to 60% of them have a mid to high-level qualification. Looking at the hidden reserve, there are significant differences between the genders. For example, many women state that they cannot work because they care for children or family members. We should make better use of this untapped potential labour force. Expanded care facilities for children or dependants requiring care are an important way to help more people enter the labour market.

    I am certain that many of you have already taken steps at your businesses to make it easier to reconcile work and family life: you operate kindergartens or have spaces reserved at other childcare facilities, offer flexible working time models or the option of working from home – the list of possibilities is long.

    The number of older persons in employment could be increased as well, for example if the statutory retirement age were linked to life expectancy after 2030. This would allow the ratio of retirement to working years to be more or less stabilised. Without this link, the ratio would carry on growing as life expectancy continues to rise. Also, in the short term, it might be worth considering limiting the financial incentives to take early retirement.

    After all, in the interests of preserving a good employment and investment climate, it is important to see to it that the tax burden on labour and capital remains reasonable. Germany, for instance, has a high corporate tax burden in comparison to other countries.[17]

    The Federal Government has the three economic policy areas I have just spoken about on its radar. This can be seen in this year’s growth initiative from 17 July. The bundle of 49 measures is intended – amongst other things – to increase incentives to work, including making it more attractive for older people to remain in work, accelerate the reduction of bureaucracy and secure the further expansion of renewable energy generation. The growth initiative is an important step in the right direction if Germany wants to rise to today’s challenges. Much depends on its implementation, however. And there is still much to be done.

    As an economist myself I must of course not forget what the term “budget constraints” implies: it is not easy to deal with all these challenges when the public purse is light. This being as it is, a critical evaluation of economic policy priorities is almost certainly unavoidable, and that evaluation will remain on the agenda even if the debt brake were to be reformed. The Bundesbank would tolerate a reform if it would continue to guarantee sound government finances. And we have proposed some stability-oriented reforms.

    4.4 More financing via the capital markets union

    I have gone over what politics and politicians can do to improve the investment climate in Germany. But whether or not an investment will pay off over the long term is not the only important factor. Any investment project must also be funded.

    That brings me to the European perspective. Because, all too often, businesses come up against internal European borders in their search for funding. An integrated capital market across the whole of Europe could give European businesses access to more funding for important private investments. But to forge that integrated pan-European capital market, we must make swift progress on both the banking and capital markets unions.

    To demonstrate my point with figures: securitisation markets in the EU saw a volume of around €800 billion in 2020. In the United States, this volume was at around US$3.2 trillion, excluding government-guaranteed products.[18] So that’s a different magnitude altogether, even though the United States and the EU have comparably large economies when measured by purchasing power parity.[19] The European securitisation market fell apart following the financial crisis and has never fully recovered since. The securitisation volume in the United States, on the other hand, has already exceeded pre-crisis levels, with the caveat that American market structures are not perfectly comparable with European ones.

    You may be thinking that securitisation has a bad reputation. And you would be right. After the 2008 financial crisis it was the poster child for “bad financial market innovations” and mainly brought to mind the sale of potentially non-performing loans to unsuspecting investors. As the head of the Bundesbank’s financial crisis management team at the time, I had an unmatched position from which to examine the dynamics of the crisis in detail.

    The financial crisis did indeed lay bare the weaknesses in the securitisation process, which can particularly come to bear in highly complex securitisation transactions. These related to deficits surrounding transparency, risk management and valuation methods. Properly structured and well regulated, though, securitisation vehicles can definitely offer added value to our economy. Securitisation markets complement other sources of long-term financing in the real economy. They give enterprises the opportunity to broaden their funding.

    This particularly applies to small and medium-sized enterprises, because securitisation gives them indirect access to capital market investors. Moreover, securitisation can relieve the pressure on bank balance sheets and open up additional scope for lending to the private sector. Well-regulated and structured securitisation markets could improve the allocation of resources in an economy and ensure a better distribution of risk.[20] This could reduce funding costs and increase economic growth.

    Support for the securitisation market is thus an important element of EU plans for a capital markets union. But there are others. The creation of integrated financial supervisory structures is planned. National insolvency rules, accounting and securities law are to be harmonised. The goal is to create a level playing field for all financial market participants operating at the EU level. And so long as this goal remains abstract, pretty much nobody has a problem with it. As soon as concrete decisions and negotiations enter the picture, however, unity often dissipates. Harmonising national rules is impossible without compromise, after all.

    Happily, more and more European policymakers are coming around to the view that we urgently need a common capital market. There’s been some movement on that front in the last few months. I think, for example, that we have made good progress towards developing a European securitisation market. We need to break down the barriers separating European capital markets one by one!

    5 Conclusion

    Ladies and gentlemen,

    As far as the structural challenges are concerned, we need to set the necessary changes in motion and make them fit for purpose. I am certain we can achieve that. The underpinnings of Germany’s industrial machine are still intact, and Germany’s position as an industrial and investment location is better than its present reputation implies. After recording sluggish growth at the turn of the millennium, Germany ranked as an economic powerhouse in Europe for more than decade.[21] Perhaps that should inspire us to invest shrewdly and sufficiently in our future.

    Economic policymaking can lay a solid foundation for that investment, but it is not all-powerful. It all comes down to enterprises and their employees in the end. Academic studies show that family businesses have greater resilience when in crisis mode than other enterprises.[22] I therefore firmly believe that all of you, as operators of family-owned businesses, continue to play an important role in ensuring the German economy rises to the challenges it faces today. And thus in ensuring that Germany remains ready for what the future holds

    Footnotes:

    1. EY and University of St. Gallen Global Family Business Index.
    2. EY, How the largest family enterprises are outstripping global economic growth, 16 January 2023.
    3. Society for the German Language, GfdS wählt »Krisenmodus« zum Wort des Jahres 2023, press release of 8 December 2023.
    4. Eckl-Dorna et al., Germany’s Days as an Industrial Superpower Are Coming to an End, Bloomberg.com, 10 February 2024.
    5. Ewing, J., The decline of Germany, Bloomberg Businessweek, 16 February 2003.
    6. Steingart, G. (2004), Deutschland – der Abstieg eines Superstars, Munich.
    7. Brand, S., D. Römer and M. Schwarz, Investing EUR 5 trillion to reach climate neutrality – a surmountable challenge, KfW Research No 350
    8. McKinsey & Company (2021), Net-zero Germany: Chances and challenges on the path to climate neutrality by 2045
    9. EY, Ausländische Investitionen in Deutschland sinken im sechsten Jahr in Folge – niedrigster Stand seit 2013, press release of 2 May 2024.
    10. Deutsche Bundesbank, Domestic investment barriers faced by German enterprises, Monthly Report, May 2024.
    11. Baker, S. R., N. Bloom and S. J. Davis (2016), Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 131(4), pp. 1539‑1636.
    12. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
    13. Deutsche Bundesbank, Energy efficiency improvements: implications for carbon emissions and economic output in Germany, Monthly Report, April 2024.
    14. Plötz et al. (2024), Climate-damaging subsidies correspond to negative CO2 prices, Kopernikus-Projekt Ariadne, Potsdam.
    15. IAB, IABMonitor Arbeitskräftebedarf 1/2024: Die Zahl der offenen Stellen ist im Vergleich zum Vorjahresquartal um rund ein Zehntel gesunken, 25 June 2024.
    16. Federal Statistical Office, Ungenutztes Arbeitskräftepotenzial 2023: Knapp 3,2 Millionen Menschen in „Stiller Reserve“, press release No 192 of 16 May 2024.
    17. See Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim Tax Index – Effective Tax Burdens in Country Comparison .
    18. See EBA (2022), Joint Committee advice on the review of the securitisation prudential framework (Banking), p. 24. For comparison purposes, the total volume of the US securitisation market (US$13,131 billion) was adjusted for agency ABSs (75%), while the total volume of the EU securitisation market (€3,058 billion) was adjusted for mortgage CBs (63%) and other CBs (11%).
    19. See Eurostat (2024), Purchasing power parities in Europe and the world – Statistics Explained (europa.eu)
    20. ECB and the Bank of England, The impaired EU securitisation market: causes, roadblocks and how to deal with them, discussion paper, March 2014.
    21. Dustmann et al. (2014), From Sick Man of Europe to Economic Superstar: Germany’s Resurgent Economy, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 28(1), pp. 167‑188.
    22. Buchner et al. (2021), Resilienz von Familienunternehmen – Eine systematische Literaturanalyse, Betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung und Praxis 73, Vol. 3, pp. 225 f.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Adnan Zaylani Mohamad Zahid: Keynote address – IFN Asia Forum 2024

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Good morning, distinguished guests.

    It always is a pleasure to be back at the IFN Asia Forum 2024. A year ago, we discussed the potential of Asia and the potential contributions of Islamic finance in strengthening regional financial intermediation. Well Asia is certainly delivering amidst global headwinds. Asia’s economic growth continues to gain momentum, driven by stronger domestic demand, rebound in tourism, and robust export activity. Undoubtedly there are pockets of weaknesses but the areas of strength offsets these. In 2023, the region recorded 5% growth, exceeding the global growth of 3.3%. Asia also offers many opportunities for the green economy. The market for green businesses in Asia is projected to grow between USD4-5 trillion by 2030, generating over 14.2 million green-related jobs. The region also requires an annual investment of at least USD1.1 trillion to meet climate and mitigation adaptation needs.

    As for Malaysia, our long-term GDP growth from 2011-23 averaged 4.3%. This surpassed the median long-term growth rates of regional and A-rated peer countries of 3.6% and 2.9% respectively. We have a positive outlook for the economy. We’re expecting this year to be around 5% above our long-term average. Unemployment rate is low, households are still spending, and we have a healthy pipeline of new and on-going projects to support investment in Malaysia. National initiatives under the National Energy Transition Roadmap, New Industrialisation Master Plan 2030 and Green Investment Strategy provide strategic direction as to where we hope capital will flow. So notably, Malaysia recorded a 326% y-o-y growth in green investments to USD1.03 billion in 2023, signalling favourable opportunity in this space.

    Malaysia’s economic prospects are indeed quite favourable. The ringgit, along with regional currencies, have been appreciating against the US dollar notably since early July following greater clarity on the interest rate path of developed countries, especially the US Federal Reserve. The narrowing of interest rate differentials with the US would be conducive to favour portfolio inflows, especially given Malaysia’s positive economic prospects. The domestic landscape is also quite positive. Ongoing government structural reforms, subsidy rationalisation and social protection enhancements offer a window of opportunity to pursue meaningful change. Furthermore, the coordinated actions between the Government and BNM, which has already facilitated a better balance for flows, will continue and this will provide sustainable support for the ringgit. Importantly, ongoing structural reforms by the Government coupled with improving economic prospects will continue to sustain global interest for investment in Malaysia. 

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Welcome speech | Speech delivered at the Bundesbank´s representative office

    Source: Bundesbank

    Check against delivery.

    1 Welcome

    Ladies and Gentlemen:

    For me, it is always a great pleasure to be here. Especially this year, as we celebrate the 15th anniversary of our trading office. Since its inception in April 2009, the trading office has provided the Bundesbank Executive Board with first-hand knowledge from Wall Street and beyond.

    I know for sure that its success rests on a network of exceptional people, namely you! Therefore, I want to start with a big thank you to all of you, for your cooperation and trust over all these years. But before we move on to the fun part, let us look at what has happened in the markets since we last met in September 2023.

    2 Economic backdrop

    From an economic point of view, the world looked different a year ago. Inflation in the euro area – and in the US too – was significantly higher. Almost a year ago to the day [Sept. 2023], the Eurosystem raised its key interest rates for the last time in the tightening cycle. In September 2023, the deposit facility rate reached 4.0 percent. The tightening has done its part to cool euro area inflation. Today, the Eurosystem is well on the way to meeting its inflation target.

    In the US, we also see positive developments in this regard. Inflation has decreased significantly, thanks to a series of interest rate increases. Although US inflation remains above the Fed’s two percent target, things are heading in the right direction – just like in the euro area. In terms of economic growth, the US remains ahead of the euro area. While euro-area GDP grew by 0.4 percent last year[1], the US economy mustered 2.5 percent growth[2]. As it stands today, the US is poised to outperform the euro-area economy once again this year – despite recent signs of a cooling in the US labour market.

    Against the backdrop of lower inflation, central banks on both sides of the Atlantic have taken steps to pare back the degree of monetary-policy restrictiveness. As expected, the Fed last week [Sept. 18] decided to lower its target range for the federal funds rate for the first time in the current cycle.

    In the euro area, the ECB’s Governing Council lowered the deposit facility rate twice already, in June and September, bringing it to 3.5 percent. The Eurosystem also narrowed the spread between the main refinancing rate and the deposit rate from 50 to 15 basis points. The latter step was no surprise. It had already been announced in the context of our Operational Framework Review in March. While excess liquidity will remain high over the coming years, it will gradually decline as part of our monetary policy normalisation. By reducing the spread between the main financing rate and the deposit facility rate, the Eurosystem aims to limit future swings in money market rates, while maintaining incentives for more market activity. We will continue to closely monitor developments in the money markets and other refinancing markets. 

    3 What else have we achieved?

    The Eurosystem – and the Fed – are continuing to shrink their balance sheets. In the euro area, we stopped reinvesting bond redemptions from the asset purchase programme APP [from July 2023 on]. And the Eurosystem is phasing out the remaining reinvestments of redemptions from the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme [PEPP] by the end of this year. Furthermore, euro-area banks have repaid the overwhelming share of their long-term crisis loans, the TLTROs. 

    In the US, you are well aware that the Fed had started to reduce its securities holdings approximately a year earlier.

    From a central bank perspective, there are good reasons for this withdrawal of liquidity. With the end of negative [and zero] interest rates, an important reason for large-scale bond purchases has vanished. Furthermore, large balance sheets of central banks can lead to market distortions. They may lead to collateral scarcity or a deterioration of market liquidity. Finally, yet importantly, central banks should only intervene in financial markets to the degree necessary for monetary policy purposes.

    It is encouraging that, so far, the balance sheet reduction has been well received by financial markets. Investors have adapted to a market with fewer central bank purchases and hence less ample liquidity provision. Market functioning remains largely robust.

    4 What challenges lie ahead?

    Ladies and Gentlemen:

    While central banks have made good progress in normalising their monetary policy stance, challenges remain. Let me briefly address three of them.

    First, despite the wave of high inflation nearing its end, we are not there yet. We shouldn’t celebrate prematurely. When it comes to interest rate cuts and their size, we are not flying on autopilot. We must remain vigilant and be wary of the risks on the path back to price stability. That’s our job and that’s what we are committed to delivering. 

    Second, recent market turbulences in early August were brief, but they serve as a warning shot. They show how sensitively markets can react to monetary policy steps – in this case combined with crowded positions in financial markets and macroeconomic triggers. 

    Third, another important factor to watch is China, which faces numerous challenges, including deflationary tendencies in some parts of the economy. Let‘s see how the markets perceive the latest decisions of the PBOC.

    5 Conclusion

    To sum up, markets have coped well with the withdrawal of central bank liquidity. Greater market fluctuations – like those in early August – have so far proven to be limited and temporary. I find this very encouraging. 

    Nevertheless, there is still work to do. We are not completely back to price stability. And central banks will continue to reduce their balance sheets, depending on their individual reduction targets. When it comes to balance sheet size, “less may be more” – as long as liquidity conditions in money markets remain relaxed over-all.

    Footnotes:

    1. Vgl. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/-/2-08032024-ap#:~:text=GDP%20growth%20in%20the%20euro%20area%20and%20the%20EU,-In%20the%20fourth&text=For%20the%20year%202023%20as,the%20third%20quarter%20of%202023). (aufgerufen am 12.09.2024)
    2.  Vgl. https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2024-08/gdp2q24-2nd.pdf
    3. https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2024-08/gdp2q24-2nd.pdf

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Empowering Lives, Fostering Growth: Inspiring Journeys of Workers at Samsung’s Chennai Plant

    Source: Samsung

    Praveen (left) and Selvan (right) taking a break around their favourite spot at Samsung’s Chennai Plant
     
    At Samsung’s Chennai manufacturing plant, where state-of-the-art TVs, air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, and compressors are produced, the heartbeat of the facility is not just the hum of the machinery—it’s the lives of thousands of dedicated workers whose stories are interwoven with the company’s commitment to their well-being and growth.
     
    The Chennai plant, one of Samsung’s largest in India, has long been known for fostering a worker-friendly environment. It provides continuous training, and numerous welfare programs, all designed to ensure the well-being and development of the workforce.
     
    Employees with an impeccable attendance record get constant incentives, which motivates them to be more present at work. There are awards in four different categories to uplift the morale of employees who continuously thrive to give outstanding performance.
     
    Empowerment through Opportunity
    For over fourteen years, Tamil Selvan has been part of the Samsung family, starting his journey as a apprentice at the plant. Coming from a modest background, he recalls how joining Samsung was more than just a job—it was the start of a transformation.
     
    Tamil Selvan: “At Samsung, it’s not just about doing a job—it’s about being heard, being valued, getting rewarded”
     
    “Fourteen Years… It feels just like yesterday. It is not just about work, I have literally grown from a boy to a man here. Over time, with Samsung’s continuous support and opportunities for growth, I was able to change my life. I have supported my younger sibling’s education, helped with their marriage, got married myself, bought a house, and now I even own a car,” said Tamil Selvan, from the Plant’s Refrigerator divison.
     
    Samsung has been dedicated to empowering its workers since the Chennai plant came into existence in 2007. With a focus on constant upskilling, Tamil Selvan steadily progressed from working on the line to being a Technical Operator.
     
    “The recognition and trust I’ve received here have been incredible,” he adds. “It’s not just about doing a job—it’s about being heard, being valued, getting rewarded, and knowing you’re making a difference,” said Selvan.
     
    A Commitment to Growth and Diversity
    Praveen Singh, another long-standing worker at the Chennai plant, echoes Tamil’s sentiments, though his journey is shaped by a different set of challenges and aspirations. Born and raised in Tamil Nadu but with roots in North India, Praveen has always been motivated by the diversity of the workforce at Samsung.
     
    Praveen Singh: “This feeling of being proud comes from the fact that I represent a brand that cares for me.”
     
    “The fact that people from all over India work together here is something that fills me with pride,” said Praveen, who joined the plant in 2013 as a trainee.
     
    “I’ve learned so much from my colleagues, not just about technology but about different cultures and perspectives. That’s something I don’t think I would have experienced anywhere else.”
     
    For Praveen, who started as a trainee and is now an operator in the process innovation team, the opportunities to learn and grow have been crucial to his success.
     
    “Samsung always encouraged me to learn. Over the years, I picked up Tamil, improved my English, and developed leadership skills that allowed me to move up the ranks,” he shared.
     
    “Samsung doesn’t just invest in its products—they invest in us, their workers. I feel immensely proud when I leave home for work wearing my uniform. This feeling comes from the fact that I represent a brand that cares for me.”
     
    Care, Health & Wellness as part of a People-first Culture
    All workers at the plant have health insurance facilities for upto five family members. From day one of apprenticeship, the plant offers continuous training, mentorship, and development programs designed to help employees grow professionally. The comprehensive health care, flexible work arrangements, and the focus on work-life balance are all part of Samsung’s commitment to creating a people-first culture.
     
    When Praveen’s mother needed knee surgery, the company’s comprehensive health policy ensured she received the best care available.
     
    “Samsung not only supported me in getting her the best doctors, but they also regularly checked in on her recovery. It’s more than a workplace—it’s a family,” he shared.
     
    Samsung’s broader ethos of prioritizing worker well-being and personal development have continuously supported the employees.
     
    Wall art designed by a worker at Chennai Plant
     
    “At Samsung, it’s not just about what we do but how we feel doing it,” Praveen explained. “The environment is supportive, and everyone is treated with respect, regardless of their position. That’s something you don’t find everywhere.”
     
    Tamil agrees, noting how much his job at Samsung has changed his standing in society. “Being a part of Samsung has earned me respect, not only in my professional life but in my community,” he said.
     
    “I’m proud of the work I do here. It’s not just a job—it’s a part of who I am.”
     
    Samsung’s Chennai Plant at Sriperumbudur
     
    A Future Built on Shared Success
    As Samsung continues to push boundaries in technology, the true foundation of its success lies in the success stories of employees. Their journeys are testaments to the company’s commitment to creating an inclusive, supportive, and growth-driven workplace where employees are empowered to achieve their best—both at work and in their personal lives.
     
    By investing in its workers, Samsung has created a workplace that doesn’t just manufacture world-class product but also builds futures, strengthens communities, and fosters loyalty.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: RBI imposes monetary penalty on The Surat People’s Co-operative Bank Limited, Surat

    Source: Reserve Bank of India

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has, by an order dated September 23, 2024, imposed a monetary penalty of ₹61.60 lakh (Rupees Sixty One Lakh and Sixty Thousand only) on The Surat People’s Co-operative Bank Limited, Surat (the bank), for non-compliance with certain directions issued by RBI on ‘Income Recognition, Asset Classification, Provisioning and Other Related Matters’, ‘Loans and advances to directors and their relatives, and firms/concerns in which they are interested’, ‘Maintenance of Deposit Accounts’ and ‘Customer Service’. This penalty has been imposed in exercise of powers conferred on RBI under the provisions of section 47A(1)(c) read with sections 46(4)(i) and 56 of the Banking Regulation Act, 1949.

    The statutory inspection of the bank was conducted by RBI with reference to its financial position as on March 31, 2022 and March 31, 2023. Based on supervisory findings of non-compliance with RBI directions and related correspondence in that regard, a notice was issued to the bank advising it to show cause as to why penalty should not be imposed on it for its failure to comply with the said directions.

    After considering the bank’s reply to the notice, oral submissions made during the personal hearing and examination of additional submissions made by it, RBI found, inter alia, that the following charges against the bank were sustained, warranting imposition of monetary penalty.

    The bank had:

    1. not classified loan accounts of certain borrowers as non-performing assets;

    2. sanctioned/ renewed loans where the relatives of directors were interested / stood as surety / guarantor;

    3. levied and recovered penal charges from certain inoperative savings bank/current accounts for non-maintenance of minimum balances in those accounts; and

    4. levied charges on certain customers for sending SMS alerts despite not having mobile numbers of such customers on record.

    This action is based on deficiencies in regulatory compliance and is not intended to pronounce upon the validity of any transaction or agreement entered into by the bank with its customers. Further, imposition of this monetary penalty is without prejudice to any other action that may be initiated by RBI against the bank.

    (Puneet Pancholy)  
    Chief General Manager

    Press Release: 2024-2025/1167

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Annual Meeting Opening Remarks by AIIB President

    Source: Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank

    Your Excellency Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan,
    Distinguished Governors of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Honored Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen:

    Assalomu alaykum.

    It is my great honor to welcome you all to the Ninth Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. On behalf of AIIB, I extend my deepest appreciation to the Republic of Uzbekistan for the gracious hospitality shown to the delegations for this Annual Meeting, the first in Central Asia.

    Your Excellency President Mirziyoyev, it is with the greatest of pleasure that AIIB has invited its Members to Uzbekistan to witness the accelerating prosperity that is gaining increasing momentum under your visionary leadership and ambitious reform agenda. Your historic visit to AIIB’s Headquarters in January this year was most significant for our bilateral relationship. With your Government’s ambitious program of nation building projects such as New Tashkent, major investments in transport, social infrastructure like hospitals and schools, and boundless potential in renewable energy, I look forward to AIIB doubling or even tripling its investment in Uzbekistan over the next 5 to 10 years.

    Distinguished Governors, we meet today at a storied center of cultural, economic and intellectual exchange. Standing at the crossroads of ancient trade routes, Samarkand’s rising prosperity began with the emergence of the Silk Road which wove across continents, tying Eurasia ever-tighter together.

    With free trade and cross border investment came a steady flow of new wealth, new ideas and new technology – stimulating scientific understanding of the world as it was then known. Underpinning this flourishing prosperity was connectivity: not just physical but, more importantly, intellectual and societal.

    Well-known are the underground ‘karez’ wells which nourished life in this dry climate, and the caravanserai that provided haven for intellectual exchange between travelers beyond commercial and business interests. Along these ancient arteries of infrastructure an intellectual lifeblood pulsed, circulating between nations of this region and spilling over into the wider world.

    It was only several hours from here that the father of algebra,

    Al-Khwarizmi, was born around 780. His ideas and writings spread to nations along the Silk Road, profoundly influencing the advance of mathematics in Europe. Indeed, his Latin name of Algoritmi is the root word for ‘algorithms’, the computations which energize today’s digital economy.

    Ladies and Gentlemen, the ancient Silk Road serves as an inspiration to us all. Such great intellectual achievements remind us that humanity is most productive, most innovative, and most prosperous when human minds meet and mingle. When people come into contact with each other, brilliant ideas sparkle.

    AIIB’s investments intend to bring regions together to ensure that global trade, technology and capital flows will continue without disruption. This helps us push the boundaries of human potential to still further distant areas. In an era of creeping geo-fragmentation, escalating climate chaos, and a hold-up in development, investing in infrastructure that connects Asia with the rest of the world is more important than ever.

    Since its inception nine years ago, AIIB has resolutely supported members amidst the rough-and-tumble of global events. Over this period, AIIB has approved financing to the tune of USD54.7 billion for 285 projects across 37 members. The development outcomes are multifold, and astounding. Our projects have connected people, 710 million strong, to urban mass transport and upgraded over 49,000 kilometers of transportation infrastructure. Thanks to our projects, there are 8.7 million people who now have access to safe drinking water. Less visibly but no less important, 22.8 million tons of CO2 emissions have been quietly averted annually.

    AIIB’s financing growth has been remarkable by historical standards. This is a great credit to the guidance to the Board of Governors and the Board of Directors. It is also a credit to the Bank’s management and staff, who deserve to be fully recognized and appreciated. Let us give them a big round of applause.

    AIIB’s funding position continues to be firmly based on triple-A ratings by all three major credit rating agencies. This year to date, the Bank has successfully issued bonds equivalent to USD 9 billion and AIIB bonds trade in line with MDB peers. Since 2022, the Bank’s administrative expenses have been fully covered by operating income. The Bank’s financial discipline strengthens its enduring ability to grow financial support for Members over time, complementing other measures under consideration from the MDB CAF review.

    Distinguished Governors, AIIB continues to double down on its client centric approach. In June this year, the structure of our investment operations was fine-tuned so as to streamline the Bank’s deployment of technical and financial expertise, and to heighten client relationships with a particular focus for private-sector financing and mobilization.

    AIIB has remained laser focused on developing financial tools which help members withstand shocks and enhance resilience. In June, Climate Policy-Based Financing (CPBF) was introduced to support Members’ efforts to improve the enabling environment for climate action, helping to mobilize private capital to push for national climate plans. The introduction of CPBF marks a new milestone in the Bank’s journey towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.

    This new initiative underscores our dedication to building resilient infrastructure for all, and our growing role in addressing global challenges. The Bank’s climate financing is expected to exceed 60% of its lending in 2024, well above the target of 50%.

    Excellencies: AIIB is truly a 21st century Bank. It is majority-owned by emerging and developing countries, follows the highest governance standards and relations between its governing bodies and clients are based on trust and client-centricity. This Bank is your Bank! AIIB’s most cherished principle is accountability. We in AIIB hold ourselves, each and every one of us, accountable for our decisions and actions. We adhere firmly to our most ardent vow made at the launch of the Bank’s operations that we will consistently live up to the expectations of our shareholders and stakeholders.

    Your Excellencies, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen: As we convene for our Ninth Annual Meeting, let us remember that we are building a future for generations to come. The theme of this Annual Meeting, “Building Resilient Infrastructure for All,” is not just a watchword, a call to action. It is the action! As we gather here along the ancient Silk Road, let us strive together to pave the path for sustainable development, regional and global integration, and prosperity for all.

    Thank you very much.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Money Market Operations as on September 25, 2024

    Source: Reserve Bank of India


    (Amount in ₹ crore, Rate in Per cent)

      Volume
    (One Leg)
    Weighted
    Average Rate
    Range
    A. Overnight Segment (I+II+III+IV) 558,492.52 6.55 5.10-6.85
         I. Call Money 10,906.90 6.68 5.10-6.80
         II. Triparty Repo 383,880.85 6.49 6.24-6.65
         III. Market Repo 162,306.77 6.67 5.50-6.85
         IV. Repo in Corporate Bond 1,398.00 6.80 6.80-6.85
    B. Term Segment      
         I. Notice Money** 176.75 6.54 6.00-7.00
         II. Term Money@@ 526.00 6.95-7.50
         III. Triparty Repo 5,217.85 6.59 6.50-6.75
         IV. Market Repo 473.26 6.66 6.66-6.66
         V. Repo in Corporate Bond 0.00
      Auction Date Tenor (Days) Maturity Date Amount Current Rate /
    Cut off Rate
    C. Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF), Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) & Standing Deposit Facility (SDF)
    I. Today’s Operations
    1. Fixed Rate          
    2. Variable Rate&          
      (I) Main Operation          
         (a) Repo          
         (b) Reverse Repo          
      (II) Fine Tuning Operations          
         (a) Repo          
         (b) Reverse Repo          
    3. MSF# Wed, 25/09/2024 1 Thu, 26/09/2024 5,549.00 6.75
    4. SDFΔ# Wed, 25/09/2024 1 Thu, 26/09/2024 83,582.00 6.25
    5. Net liquidity injected from today’s operations [injection (+)/absorption (-)]*       -78,033.00  
    II. Outstanding Operations
    1. Fixed Rate          
    2. Variable Rate&          
      (I) Main Operation          
         (a) Repo Fri, 20/09/2024 14 Fri, 04/10/2024 25,002.00 6.52
         (b) Reverse Repo          
      (II) Fine Tuning Operations          
         (a) Repo Tue, 24/09/2024 2 Thu, 26/09/2024 50,003.00 6.62
         (b) Reverse Repo          
    3. MSF#          
    4. SDFΔ#          
    5. On Tap Targeted Long Term Repo Operations Mon, 27/09/2021 1095 Thu, 26/09/2024 600.00 4.00
    Mon, 04/10/2021 1095 Thu, 03/10/2024 350.00 4.00
    Mon, 15/11/2021 1095 Thu, 14/11/2024 250.00 4.00
    Mon, 27/12/2021 1095 Thu, 26/12/2024 2,275.00 4.00
    6. Special Long-Term Repo Operations (SLTRO) for Small Finance Banks (SFBs)£ Mon, 15/11/2021 1095 Thu, 14/11/2024 105.00 4.00
    Mon, 22/11/2021 1095 Thu, 21/11/2024 100.00 4.00
    Mon, 29/11/2021 1095 Thu, 28/11/2024 305.00 4.00
    Mon, 13/12/2021 1095 Thu, 12/12/2024 150.00 4.00
    Mon, 20/12/2021 1095 Thu, 19/12/2024 100.00 4.00
    Mon, 27/12/2021 1095 Thu, 26/12/2024 255.00 4.00
    D. Standing Liquidity Facility (SLF) Availed from RBI$       8,495.66  
    E. Net liquidity injected from outstanding operations [injection (+)/absorption (-)]*     87,990.66  
    F. Net liquidity injected (outstanding including today’s operations) [injection (+)/absorption (-)]*     9,957.66  
    G. Cash Reserves Position of Scheduled Commercial Banks
         (i) Cash balances with RBI as on September 25, 2024 1,004,354.64  
         (ii) Average daily cash reserve requirement for the fortnight ending October 04, 2024 1,005,433.00  
    H. Government of India Surplus Cash Balance Reckoned for Auction as on¥ September 25, 2024 0.00  
    I. Net durable liquidity [surplus (+)/deficit (-)] as on September 06, 2024 427,689.00  
    @ Based on Reserve Bank of India (RBI) / Clearing Corporation of India Limited (CCIL).
    – Not Applicable / No Transaction.
    ** Relates to uncollateralized transactions of 2 to 14 days tenor.
    @@ Relates to uncollateralized transactions of 15 days to one year tenor.
    $ Includes refinance facilities extended by RBI.
    & As per the Press Release No. 2019-2020/1900 dated February 06, 2020.
    Δ As per the Press Release No. 2022-2023/41 dated April 08, 2022.
    * Net liquidity is calculated as Repo+MSF+SLF-Reverse Repo-SDF.
    As per the Press Release No. 2020-2021/520 dated October 21, 2020, Press Release No. 2020-2021/763 dated December 11, 2020, Press Release No. 2020-2021/1057 dated February 05, 2021 and Press Release No. 2021-2022/695 dated August 13, 2021.
    ¥ As per the Press Release No. 2014-2015/1971 dated March 19, 2015.
    £ As per the Press Release No. 2021-2022/181 dated May 07, 2021 and Press Release No. 2021-2022/1023 dated October 11, 2021.
    # As per the Press Release No. 2023-2024/1548 dated December 27, 2023.
    Ajit Prasad            
    Deputy General Manager
    (Communications)    
    Press Release: 2024-2025/1159

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Secretary-General of ASEAN meets with Secretary of the Party Committee of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

    Source: ASEAN

    Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, today met with Secretary of the Party Committee of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Liu Ning at the sidelines of the 21st China-ASEAN Expo (CAEXPO) in Nanning, China. They discussed the important role of the CAEXPO in strengthening ASEAN-China cooperation in the areas of trade, investment, tourism and connectivity, among others.

    The post Secretary-General of ASEAN meets with Secretary of the Party Committee of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: ICC calls for united action to end plastic pollution at NY Climate Week 

    Source: International Chamber of Commerce

    Headline: ICC calls for united action to end plastic pollution at NY Climate Week 

    In a keynote speech at a high-level roundtable hosted by ICC, Mr Varin emphasised ICC’s commitment in securing an ambitious, workable and effective agreement that rallies everyone, everywhere – including the business community – to end plastic pollution once and for all. 

    “We are confident that the spirit of collaboration and common purpose that brought the gavel down on the initial resolution in Nairobi, will prevail in advancing its mandate and delivering a historic agreement to spearhead the change the planet and humanity deserves.”

    Philippe Varin, ICC Chair.

    The event brought together leaders from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), government and regional group representatives as well as senior business executives from sectors across the plastics industry to discuss what is concretely needed to get an effective agreement finalised and how businesses can support these efforts. 

    A crucial role for business 

    Mr Varin highlighted the vital role business has to play in providing the expertise and the solutions that will be needed to tackle the plastics challenge at the required scale and speed across value chains.   

    “The global business community needs an agreement that provides the enabling frameworks and policies to drive innovation and accelerate business action across all sectors and geographies, including for MSMEs. This will be indispensable for businesses to effectively deliver on the objectives of the agreement and spur impactful change,” he added. 

    The fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee to develop an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, including in the marine environment (INC-5), will take place from 25 November to 1 December 2024 in Busan, Republic of Korea. 

    “With only one negotiating session left this year to conclude an agreement, it will be critical to make the best use of the limited time left to advance towards a robust agreement that sets the foundation for a truly circular economy for plastics.”

    Raelene Martin, ICC Head of Sustainability

    Clear plans for intersessional work will be essential to build common ground on key issues and ICC is continuing to provide input to the process on behalf of over 45 million companies in more than 170 countries. 

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Governor Signe Krogstrup’s presentation at Nykredit Capital Markets Day

    Source: Danmarks Nationalbank

    Monetary and financial trends

    On 25 September 2024, Governor Signe Krogstrup gave a presentation at Nykredit Capital Markets Day. The presentation gave an overview of the Danish economy and monetary policy. Main messages was: We expect a soft landing for the Danish economy; The monetary policy is still tight and likely to hold down inflation and The Danish krone has been very stable during the past years.


    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Samsung Launches 990 EVO Plus SSD With Best-in-Class Performance Speeds Supported by PCIe 4.0

    Source: Samsung

     
    Samsung Electronics, the world leader in advanced memory technology, today announced the release of the 990 EVO Plus, adding to its lineup of leading SSD products. With PCIe 4.0 support and latest NAND technology, the 990 EVO Plus is an ideal solution for consumers seeking enhanced performance and power efficiency on their PCs. Optimized for gaming, business and creative endeavors.
     
    “Our daily lives are increasingly demanding more data with the images we share on social media and high-quality video streaming,” said Hangu Sohn, Vice President of Memory Brand Product Biz Team at Samsung Electronics. “The 990 EVO Plus is built for laptop and desktop PC users seeking faster processing speeds and expanded storage capacity.”
     
     
    Enhanced Performance and Power Efficiency

     
    The 990 EVO Plus is built on decades of Samsung’s pioneering semiconductor technology with proven reliability. Sequential read speeds come up to 7250 megabytes-per-second (MB/s) and write speeds up to 6300MB/s, an enhancement of up to 50% over the previous 990 EVO. The performance boost is thanks to Samsung’s latest 8th generation V-NAND technology and 5-nanometer (nm) controller, while an innovative nickel-coated heat shield minimizes overheating, allowing 73% higher power efficiency than its predecessor.
     
    The 4TB model has an industry-leading random read speed of 1,050K IOPS and 1,400K input/output operations per second (IOPS) for random write. This remarkable performance nearly rivals that of SSD products with DRAM, despite not using DRAM cache, making it an optimal solution for gaming and AI tasks that require high performance.
     
     
    Expanded Storage Capacity
    The ever-increasing demand for high-capacity storage devices is driven by managing large-sized files, high-quality video editing and next-generation gaming. To meet today’s growing storage requirements, the 990 EVO Plus offers ample capacity with a 4TB model, exceeding the storage limits of the 990 EVO. The 990 EVO Plus is equipped with Samsung’s intelligent TurboWrite 2.0, revamped for maximized performance, offering rapid file transfer speeds and reduced lag.
     
     
    Samsung Magician Software Support
    Samsung Magician software presents a suite of optimization tools for enhanced functionality for all Samsung SSDs, including the 990 EVO Plus. Users can streamline the data migration process for SSD upgrades effortlessly and securely. In addition, Samsung Magician protects valuable data, monitors drive health and offers customized performance optimization.
     
    The 990 EVO Plus will be available to consumers worldwide at a manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) of $109.99 for the 1TB model, $184.99 for the 2TB model, and $344.99 for the 4TB model. For more information — including warranty details — please visit samsung.com/SSD or semiconductor.samsung.com/internal-ssd/. For a user guide on how to install the 990 EVO Plus onto your laptop or computer, visit https://semiconductor.samsung.com/consumer-storage/ssdupgrade/.
     
     
    Samsung SSD 990 EVO Plus Specifications

    Samsung SSD 990 EVO Plus
    Interface
    PCIe® Gen 4.0 x4 / 5.0 x2 NVMe 2.01
    Form Factor
    M.2 (2280)
    Storage Memory
    Samsung V-NAND 3-bit TLC
    Controller
    Samsung In-house Controller
    Capacity2
    1 TB
    2 TB
    4 TB
    Sequential Read/Write Speed 3,4
    Up to 7,150 MB/s, 6,300 MB/s
    Up to 7,250 MB/s, 6,300 MB/s
    Up to 7,250 MB/s, 6,300 MB/s
    Random Read/Write Speed (QD32) 3,4
    Up to 850K IOPS, 1,350K IOPS
    Up to 1,000K IOPS, 1,350K IOPS
    Up to 1,050K IOPS, 1,400K IOPS
    Management Software
    Samsung Magician Software
    Data Encryption
    AES 256-bit Full Disk Encryption, TCG/Opal V2.0,
    Encrypted Drive (IEEE1667)
    Total Bytes Written
    600 TB
    1200 TB
    2400 TB
    Warranty 5
    Five-year Limited Warranty 6
     
    * Product availability may vary depending on model and region.
     
     
    1 The NVM Express® design mark is a registered trademark of NVM Express, Inc.2 1GB = 1,000,000,000 bytes by IDEMA. A certain portion of capacity may be used for system file and maintenance use, so the actual capacity may differ from what is indicated on the product label.3,4 Sequential and random performance measurements are based on IOmeter1.1.0. Performance may vary based on an SSD’s firmware version, system hardware & configuration.
    Test system configuration: AMD Ryzen9 7950x 16-Core Processor CPU@4.5GHz, DDR5 4800MHz 16GBx2), OS-Windows 11 Pro 64bit, Chipset – ASRock X670E Taichi5 Samsung Electronics shall not be liable for any loss, including but not limited to loss of data or other information contained on Samsung Electronics’ products or loss of profit or revenue which may be incurred by the user. For more information on the warranty, please visit samsung.com/SSD or semiconductor.samsung.com/internal-ssd/6 Five years or total bytes written (TBW), whichever comes first. For more information on the warranty, please refer to the enclosed warranty document in the package.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Samsung Brings Innovative Tech with the Opening of a New Store at Cresta Mall

    Source: Samsung

    Samsung Electronics South Africa is thrilled to announce the grand opening of its new brand store at Cresta Mall in Johannesburg on Thursday, 12 September 2024. This new store will offer an immersive shopping experience for local shoppers, showcasing the latest in Samsung’s cutting-edge technology and innovation.
     

     
    The new store will feature a comprehensive range of Samsung products, including the newest smartphones, tablets, wearables, home appliances, aircons, TVs and monitors. With a modern and engaging design, the store aims to provide customers with an interactive and hands-on experience with Samsung’s advanced technology.
     
    The new store is set to bring the full customer journey with the extensive range of Samsung product offerings. From audio-visual, cooking, and cleaning to other home appliances, customers will be able to get their hands on all the new technology the company has to offer. The recently launched Bespoke AI home appliances including fridges, washing machines, dishwashers, and microwave ovens will be available to help customers do less and live more as they elevate the way they stay entertained and do ordinary household chores, among other
     

     
    Home entertainment will transform to bring consumers the ultimate viewing experience thanks to an array of ground-breaking AI televisions such as the Neo QLED 8K, OLED, The Serif, and The Frame, as well as gaming monitors like the highly impressive Odyssey.
     
    Customers looking to upgrade their mobile experience will have to look no further as the store will bring the latest smartphones from the accessible Galaxy A series to the AI-powered flagships, the Galaxy S24 series and Galaxy Z Fold6 and Z Flip6 foldables. As the best that Galaxy has to offer, these devices take productivity, creativity, and entertainment to a whole new level with their most advanced AI features.
     

     
    With Spring ushering in the warm and hot temperatures, customers need not worry as they can visit the store to get their hands on the new WindFreeTM air-conditioner range to make their homes cool and comfortable.
     
    The store’s operating hours are 09h00 – 19h00 Monday to Saturday, and 09h00 – 17h00 on Sundays and public holidays. With its friendly and highly-trained staff always ready and willing to assist customers with their insights on the latest Samsung innovations and great deals, the new Samsung store at Cresta Mall is expected to be a hive of activity.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Verizon is ready to keep customers connected ahead of Hurricane Helene

    Source: Verizon

    Headline: Verizon is ready to keep customers connected ahead of Hurricane Helene

    ALPHARETTA, GA – As potential Hurricane Helene approaches the Florida coast, Verizon remains committed to keeping communities and first responders connected. Verizon’s Response Team has prepared year-round to respond to extreme weather situations, like hurricanes, by taking part in emergency drills, fortifying the network infrastructure, and ensuring resources are mobilized for rapid response.

    “Verizon is committed to keeping communities connected. From consumers, to businesses, to first responders, Verizon offers the dependable service they need to face Hurricane Helene and the days to come,” said Atlantic South Market President, Leigh Anne Lanier. “Our dedicated team is working around the clock to ensure our customers stay informed, stay in touch with loved ones, and access critical services when they need them most.”

    Verizon’s networks are primed

    Verizon’s networks are primed to maintain connectivity even in the face of extreme weather conditions, such as hurricanes. With redundancy built into critical paths and components, Verizon’s network is engineered to withstand severe weather. Verizon engineers have prepared by conducting thorough checks, as well as ensuring backup systems, like batteries and generators, are operational and refueled.

    In preparation for potential network recovery operations, Verizon has bolstered its arsenal with:

    • A fleet of over 550 portable network assets, including generator-powered cell sites, drones, and a fixed-wing aircraft for aerial support.
    • An industry-leading nearly 300 satellite-based portable network assets, providing crucial connectivity in scenarios where fiber connections are compromised.
    • More than 1,000 mobile generators to assist communities in maintaining or restoring connectivity, and rapid recovery efforts.

    Verizon Frontline stands at the ready, prepared to assist first responders in any capacity needed

    The Verizon Frontline Crisis Response Team stands ready to help ensure that public safety agencies on the front line of any potential disaster have the mission-critical communications capabilities needed to achieve their missions. This team, composed primarily of former first responders and military personnel, is solely dedicated to supporting public safety customers during emergencies at no cost to the supported agencies.

    In the first nine months of 2024, the Verizon Frontline Crisis Response Team has responded to more than 1,000 requests for mission-critical communications support from more than 500 different agencies in 46 states.

    Being prepared is essential to support local businesses and communities

    Recognizing the critical role of connectivity in business continuity, Verizon Business provides a suite of solutions tailored for seamless operations during emergencies. Businesses and government organizations need the right game plan. Suggested actions include:

    • Mitigate customer disruption: Think about what you need to ensure continuous service to your customers, and what software and equipment your business needs to continue operations. Make a detailed list, including service contracts and warranty information, and all pertinent phone numbers for local authorities, utility companies, suppliers, and vendors.
    • The right tech makes an impact: Ensure you have the right technology to support your business connectivity needs assuming you might need to move away from your primary location.
    • Contacts and documents are key: Make sure you have contact information updated and readily available for all employees, including at-home information for remote workers and branch information for satellite offices.
    • Test, test, and test again: Stress-test primary and backup networks and shore up any weak areas.
    • Keep track of equipment: Ensure employees working from home have documented all corporate equipment being used to work from home in case of damage or loss.
    • Have a backup plan: Ensure backup plans are in place to shift work in case work-from-home employees in a storm-impacted area have to evacuate their homes or their home loses commercial power.

    Are you hurricane ready?

    Verizon’s team works year-round to ensure customers remain connected to their loved ones and the activities that provide comfort during a disaster. As residents prepare to stay connected and entertained, consider these tips:

    • Stock Up on power supplies like batteries for flashlights and radios or device chargers. Take it a step further by charging your devices that can act as chargers for other devices like laptops and party box speakers. Don’t forget to ensure you have the cables!
    • Download Movies, Books, Apps and Games or gather board games, card games and puzzles to go device-free.
    • Locate materials for hobbies like knitting or drawing, and get creative.
    • Plan activities like cooking easy-to-make meals and even no-bake treats. Keep a few non-perishable ingredients, a manual can opener and other kitchen tools on hand.
    • Grab some candles, blankets, pillows or anything that makes your space cozy.
    • Read up on the American Red Cross’ hurricane preparedness tips.

    **Editor’s Note: To access images and b-roll of past storms, Verizon equipment, recovery efforts and more, please visit Verizon’s Emergency Resource Hub at https://www.verizon.com/about/news/emergency-resource-center

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: New Report: How PJM Can Reform Its Interconnection Processes to Expedite Battery Storage and Avoid Looming Electricity Shortfall

    Source: American Clean Power Association (ACP)

    Headline: New Report: How PJM Can Reform Its Interconnection Processes to Expedite Battery Storage and Avoid Looming Electricity Shortfall

    WASHINGTON, D.C. — PJM Interconnection (PJM), America’s largest electric grid operator with a service territory that spans 13 states and the District of Columbia, risks a shortfall of electricity within the next six years yet continues to apply processes that discourage the deployment of battery energy storage systems (BESS), according to a new Gabel Associates, Inc. report commissioned by the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE) in partnership with the American Clean Power Association (ACP) and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA).
    The paper outlines how PJM has prevented storage technologies from using a tool to expedite connection to the grid, Surplus Interconnection Service (SIS), that has been endorsed by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and successfully utilized by other grid operators.
    “Electricity demand in the Mid-Atlantic region is rapidly rising, but the good news is that there is a large amount of clean energy waiting to come online to maintain the grid’s reliability,” said ACORE President and CEO Ray Long. “SIS is an important tool for efficiently accelerating the deployment of new resources, especially battery storage that will provide much-needed capacity for the region.”
    ReSISting a Resource Shortfall: Fixing PJM’s Surplus Interconnection Service (SIS) to Enable Battery Storage offers concrete recommendations PJM can immediately take to ensure the timely development of storage in the Mid-Atlantic region, including:
    Eliminate the current prohibition of SIS participation by grid-charging BESS resources
    Harmonize BESS and pumped hydro storage modeling assumptions
    Adopt FERC’s standard allowing SIS if resources do not trigger the need for new network upgrades
    “The need to accelerate the deployment of high-capacity value resources like battery storage is acute as the rapid pace of load growth and legacy generation resource retirements challenge resource adequacy in PJM,” said Mike Borgatti, Senior Vice President, Gabel Associates Inc. “Surplus Interconnection Service provides an important opportunity to maximize the potential for our existing transmission grid to accommodate new resources.”
    “Timely deployment of new resources is necessary to meet rapidly rising energy demand and prevent impending electricity shortages,” said ACP Vice President of Energy Storage Noah Roberts. “Energy storage has already proven its ability to efficiently provide substantial new capacity in other regions across the country, stabilizing the grid and reducing costs. PJM can use several vetted and FERC-endorsed tools, including SIS, to expedite energy storage deployment and boost reliability and affordability across the region.”
    “To avoid a capacity shortfall in the PJM region, we need to use every tool we have to quickly and efficiently add clean energy resources to the grid,” said Melissa Alfano, Senior Director of Energy Markets and Counsel at SEIA. “This report shows that we have an opportunity to fast-track interconnection approvals for additional generation and that PJM has the authority to grant these requests. Solar developers are eager to meet this growing demand for electricity, but PJM continues to ignore the dispatchable clean energy at its fingertips.”
    To download a copy of the report, click here.
    ###
    Media Contacts:Phil SgroDeputy Director of Media Relations, ACPpsgro@cleanpower.org771.208.9388
    Dylan HelmsManager, Communications, ACOREhelms@acore.org202.935.6491
    Holly ReedSenior Vice President, Gabel Associatesholly@gabelassociates.com732.296.0770
    Jen BristolSenior Director of Communications, SEIAjbristol@seia.org202.556.2886
    About ACORE:For over 20 years, the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE) has been the nation’s leading voice on the issues most essential to renewable energy expansion. ACORE unites finance, policy, and technology to accelerate the transition to a renewable energy economy. For more information, please visit www.acore.org.
    About Gabel Associates:Gabel Associates, Inc. (gabelassociates.com) is an energy, environmental, and public utility consulting firm with its principal office in Highland Park, New Jersey, and satellite offices in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Rockville, Maryland. For over 30 years, the firm has provided quality energy, environmental, and public utility consulting services and strategic insight to hundreds of clients throughout the United States.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Secretary-General of ASEAN conducts interview with Chinese media

    Source: ASEAN

    Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, today participated in interviews with Chinese media outlets, including People’s Daily, Xinhua News Agency, China Media Group, China Daily, and Guangxi Radio & TV. The interviews focused on ASEAN-China relations, during which Dr. Kao addressed inquiries related to the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, trade and investment, the digital and green economies, the China-ASEAN Year of People-to-People Exchange, and the China-ASEAN Expo.

    The post Secretary-General of ASEAN conducts interview with Chinese media appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Secretary-General of ASEAN shares thoughts on ASEAN-China relations with Siam Associated Press

    Source: ASEAN

    Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, today had an interview with Siam Associated Press on the margins of the 21st China-ASEAN Expo (CAEXPO) in Nanning, China, where Dr. Kao shared his thoughts and perspectives on ASEAN-China relations, regional cooperation and multilateralism.

    The post Secretary-General of ASEAN shares thoughts on ASEAN-China relations with Siam Associated Press appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Asian Development Blog: The Fed Has Cut Interest Rates: What Does This Mean for Asia and the Pacific?

    Source: Asia Development Bank

    The recent interest rate cuts by the United States Federal Reserve present opportunities and challenges for central banks in Asia and the Pacific. Policymakers must adopt a balanced, country-specific approach to navigate potential inflationary pressures, exchange rate volatility, and capital inflow dynamics.

    The United States’ Federal Reserve (Fed) kicked off a long-anticipated monetary policy loosening cycle at its September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Committee members project another 50 basis points of cuts this year, and that Fed loosening will continue in 2025.

    This could have significant consequences for the global economy, including for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific.

    Inflationary pressures in have continued declining in the region this year, as commodity prices stabilized and the lagged effects of last year’s monetary tightening took hold. As a result, most of its central banks have paused their hiking cycle, with some switching to policy rate cuts. Others may now follow suit.

     In shaping their policy stance, central banks in emerging economies need to take account of interest rate differentials with the US, which impact capital flows and exchange rates. The Fed rate cut opens up the opportunity for more of the region’s central banks to loosen policy to stimulate domestic demand and growth, without triggering capital outflows and exchange rate depreciations.

    Still, since the pace and length of the Fed loosening cycle remains uncertain, an appropriate policy response in Asia and the Pacific will require caution and a careful balancing act, for a number of reasons.

    One option for central banks is to cut rates in the wake of the Fed. This would support growth, but it may also revive price pressures and encourage excessive borrowing in economies where household and corporate debt levels are already high.

    Alternatively, central banks in the region could continue to maintain a relatively tight monetary stance—e.g., by cutting interest rates with a lag and/or less than proportionally with respect to the Fed.

    In such a case, the lower interest rates in the US could increase capital flows to Asia and the Pacific, as investors adjust their portfolios toward assets with more attractive yields. This could boost equity and bond markets across the region, providing some breathing space to more vulnerable economies.

    However, capital inflows could also present some challenges, as significant swings in short-term portfolio investment could increase financial market volatility. 

    Additionally, higher capital inflows may result in exchange rate appreciations vis-à-vis the US dollar in the region. This would benefit economies heavily dependent on oil and other commodity imports, reducing price pressures and improving trade balances. For economies with high US dollar-denominated debt, the depreciation of the US dollar would make it easier to sustain the debt burden.

    The beginning of the Fed monetary loosening cycle brings challenges and opportunities for Asia and the Pacific.

    On the other hand, exchange rate appreciations would boost imports, with potentially negative effects on current accounts. In the medium term, stronger currencies could also hamper export growth, particularly for economies reliant on exports of traditional manufacturing goods, such as garments or textiles, which depend mainly on price competitiveness.

    This variety of potential effects and channels suggests that  policy responses to the Fed loosening cycle in Asia and the Pacific will need to be country-specific and nuanced, and include a combination of the following measures.

    As well as adjusting interest rates, monetary authorities in the region could rely on targeted measures, such as on banks’ reserve requirements, to affect financial and liquidity conditions. Forward guidance can also be an effective tool to anchor inflation expectations and reduce uncertainty and financial volatility, by clearly laying out the future path of monetary policy for market participants and economic agents.

    For economies receiving increasing capital inflows, well-developed financial markets are key to absorb the inflows and turn them into productive investment in the domestic economy. Policy action should focus on increasing competition, efficiency, and transparency in the financial sector, with the central bank or other overseeing independent authority providing adequate supervision.  

    To deal with the risks associated with rising capital inflows, capital flow management measures and macroprudential policies can be used, including measures aimed at mitigating exposure to currency mismatches.  Where capital inflows result in excessive currency appreciation, targeted intervention in foreign exchange markets could help reduce volatility, while also increasing foreign exchange reserves.

    Fiscal policy could be used the cushion the impact of falling exports. Depending on fiscal space, stimulus could be directed at several objectives, including boosting consumer spending; incentivizing activity in particular sectors with stronger multiplier effects on the rest of the economy; and infrastructure, energy-saving, climate-adaptation, and other projects aimed at addressing structural gaps, which would also boost the economy’s productive potential.

    The beginning of the Fed monetary loosening cycle brings challenges and opportunities for Asia and the Pacific. Lower interest rates in the US and a weaker dollar could lower import costs, boost financial markets, and spur larger capital flows toward the region. But these positive developments would not be without risks, including possible exchange rate volatility and renewed inflationary pressures.

    Policymakers will need to adopt a flexible approach, remaining vigilant and proactive in taking advantage of the opportunities and addressing the risks.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Prices are expected to remain stable in the Danish economy

    Source: Danmarks Nationalbank

    25 September 2024

    The Danish economy is in mild recovery, supported by global growth and Danes regaining purchasing power after a few years of high inflation. Employment has continued to rise, but because the labour force has also grown, no further pressure has been applied to the labour market over the past year. Pressure on the labour market has eased since 2022.

    There is a good chance that wage increases will slow down over the next few years, due to less pressure on the labour market and significantly lower inflation than a few years ago. Inflation is expected to stabilise at around 2 per cent.

    “Even though pressure on the labour market is easing slightly, we are still in a situation of very low unemployment. Consequently, monetary and fiscal policy combined should seek to avoid boosting activity. This may therefore not be a good time to relax fiscal policy to the extent proposed by the government for the 2025 budget,” says Christian Kettel Thomsen, Governor of Danmarks Nationalbank.

    In our latest projection, we expect inflation (HICP) in Denmark to be 1.3 per cent this year, 2.1 per cent next year and 1.8 in 2026. We expect GDP growth to be 2.1 per cent this year, 2.3 per cent in 2025 and 1.5 per cent in 2026.

    Danmarks Nationalbank’s new analyses of the Danish economy can be found on Danmarks Nationalbank’s website, nationalbanken.dk.

    Press enquiries can be directed to Communications and Press Officer Teis Hald Jensen by phone +45 3363 6066 or e-mail tehj@nationalbanken.dk.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Secretary-General of ASEAN delivers lecture at Guangxi University

    Source: ASEAN

    Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, today delivered a lecture at Guangxi University in Nanning, China. The lecture was titled “Fostering Friendship and Cooperation: The Role of People-to-People Connections and Exchanges in ASEAN-China Relations” and was attended by hundreds of college students from multidisciplinary backgrounds. During the lecture, Dr. Kao shared various achievements that both ASEAN and China have made in realizing people-to-people connections, particularly in the areas of culture, education, youth, and the digital economy.

    The post Secretary-General of ASEAN delivers lecture at Guangxi University appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Secretary-General of ASEAN engages in a Roundtable Dialogue with Guangxi University

    Source: ASEAN

    Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, today held a roundtable dialogue with officials and academics from Guangxi University, in Nanning, China. The Guangxi University delegation was led by Vice President of Guangxi University Mr. Xiao Jianzhuang. Both sides exchanged views on ASEAN-China cooperation in education, human resource development, and the important role of universities and research institutions in advancing regional economic and social development.

    The post Secretary-General of ASEAN engages in a Roundtable Dialogue with Guangxi University appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Press presentation 25 September 2024

    Source: Danmarks Nationalbank

    Danish economy

    On 25 September 2024 at a press conference, Governor Christian Kettel Thomsen’s main messages were that there is a prospect of moderate progress and stable prices in Denmark, but that there is still a need for monetary and fiscal policy to support low and stable inflation. (Presentation in Danish only).


    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: From 12 to 21: how we discovered connections between the Twelve and BlackJack groups

    Source: Securelist – Kaspersky

    Headline: From 12 to 21: how we discovered connections between the Twelve and BlackJack groups

    While analyzing attacks on Russian organizations, our team regularly encounters overlapping tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) among different cybercrime groups, and sometimes even shared tools. We recently discovered one such overlap: similar tools and tactics between two hacktivist groups – BlackJack and Twelve, which likely belong to a single cluster of activity.

    In this report, we will provide information about the current procedures, legitimate tools, and malware used by the BlackJack group, and demonstrate their similarity to artifacts found in Twelve’s attacks. We will also analyze another recently discovered activity that has much in common with the activity of the potential cluster.

    Who are BlackJack?

    BlackJack is a hacktivist group that emerged at the end of 2023, targeting companies based in Russia. In their Telegram channel, the group states that it aims to find vulnerabilities in the networks of Russian organizations and government institutions.

    As of June 2024, BlackJack has publicly claimed responsibility for over a dozen attacks. Our telemetry also contains information on other unpublicized attacks, where indicators suggest BlackJack’s involvement.

    The group only uses freely available and open-source software, such as the SSH client PuTTY or the wiper Shamoon, which has been available on GitHub for several years. This confirms that the group operates as hacktivists and lacks the resources typical of large APT groups.

    Wiper – Shamoon

    BlackJack uses a version of the Shamoon wiper written in Go in their attacks. Static analysis helped us extract the following characteristic strings:

    Strings from the wiper

    During our research, we found Shamoon samples in the following locations:

    Ransomware – LockBit

    In addition to the wiper, BlackJack also uses a leaked version of the LockBit ransomware to harm their victims.

    Verdicts with which BlackJack’s version of LockBit was detected, source: Kaspersky Threat Intelligence Portal (TIP)

    We found the ransomware in the same directories as the wiper:

    The network directories for placing the malware were not chosen at random. This allows the attackers to spread their samples across the victim’s infrastructure and later place them in C:ProgramData for further execution in the system.

    To launch LockBit, the attackers use scheduled tasks containing the following command line (the 32-character password may vary depending on the host or victim):

    The ransom note only contains the name of the group:

    Contents of the LockBit ransom note

    This confirms that the group is not aiming for financial gain, but rather to cause damage to the compromised organization.

    Ngrok

    To maintain persistent access to compromised victim resources, the attackers use tunneling with the common ngrok utility. We found the utility and its configuration file in the following directories:

    Paths Description
    Archive containing executable and configuration files.
    Ngrok executable file.
    Configuration file containing an authentication token and other information.

    Here is a list of commands related to ngrok execution:

    Commands Description
    Ngrok authentication process.
    Launches the ngrok.exe process and creates a TCP tunnel on port 3389 (RDP).
    Alternative for creating a TCP tunnel on port 3389 (RDP).
    Creates a UDP tunnel on port 3389 (RDP).

    Radmin, AnyDesk, PuTTY

    To ensure remote access to the system, BlackJack installs various remote access tools (RATs). Judging by the incidents we studied, the attackers initially attempted to use the Radmin utility, but all the external connections we observed were made through AnyDesk.

    During the RAT installation, the attackers created the following services:

    Service name Launch commands
    Radmin Server V3
    raddrvv3
    AnyDesk Service

    Additionally, the popular SSH client PuTTY was used to connect to certain hosts within the infrastructure.

    Connection with the Twelve group

    The malware and legitimate tools described above significantly overlap with the arsenal of the hacktivist group Twelve. This group also relies on publicly available software and does not use proprietary tools in its attacks.

    Most of the connections and overlaps between the two groups were discovered through Kaspersky Security Network (KSN) telemetry and Kaspersky Threat Intelligence solutions. KSN telemetry is anonymized data from users of our products who have consented to share and process this information.

    Malware sample similarities

    Let’s first examine the similarities between the ransomware and wiper samples from the BlackJack and Twelve groups. Below is the information from the Kaspersky Threat Intelligence Portal (TIP) on the LockBit ransomware file discovered while investigating the BlackJack attacks:

    BlackJack file information

    The sample is named bj.exe, presumably an abbreviation for the BlackJack group. Among other things, the TIP page shows a list of similar files compiled using the Similarity technology, which identifies files with similar patterns. Although the sample used by the hacktivists was created with the leaked LockBit builder, Similarity first identifies the most closely related files. Note the first hash in the list: 39B91F5DFBBEC13A3EC7CCE670CF69AD.

    List of similar files

    Checking this hash on the Threat Intelligence Portal reveals that it was mentioned in our recent investigation into the Twelve group.

    This suggests that the two groups use similar LockBit samples. Additionally, analysis of the configuration of the two samples (BlackJack and Twelve) showed that their exclusion lists (files, directories, and extensions to leave unencrypted) are identical.

    Just like the BlackJack’s LockBit sample, the Twelve group’s ransomware also has a list of similar files.

    List of similar files

    Upon checking one of them (underlined in red on the screenshot), we found that the file was also named bj.exe. This means that it is another instance of the BlackJack group’s ransomware, further indicating that the two groups use nearly identical LockBit samples.

    Below is a list of paths where LockBit samples were found during the investigation of incidents related to the BlackJack and Twelve groups:

    BlackJack Twelve
    [DOMAIN]netlogon [DOMAIN]netlogon
    C:ProgramData C:ProgramData
    Sysvoldomainscripts

    Summing up the ransomware analysis, we can draw the following conclusions:

    • Both groups use similar LockBit ransomware samples;
    • The paths where these samples were found are almost identical.

    Let’s continue searching for further connections.

    Wiper reuse

    The study of wiper samples from incidents involving the BlackJack and Twelve groups also revealed similarities between them.

    Both wipers overwrite the MBR record with almost identical placeholder strings:

    MBR placeholder of the BlackJack wiper

    MBR placeholder of the Twelve wiper

    By analyzing the BlackJack wiper on the Threat Intelligence Portal, we found that in some cases it was extracted from the following archive:

    Information about the archive containing the BlackJack wiper

    Examining the archive, we found the Chaos ransomware – 646A228C774409C285C256A8FAA49BDE:

    Ransomware file in the archive

    Moreover, this file was mentioned in our report on the Twelve group. That is, malware from both groups is distributed in the same archive.

    Checking the file names and paths, we discovered a familiar network directory sysvoldomainscript.

    File names and paths

    In addition, during our investigation of attacks carried out by the Twelve group, we also found the use of Shamoon-based wipers. Moreover, according to KSN data, a specific variant of Shamoon, which was involved in BlackJack group attacks, was also seen in some Twelve attacks.

    Similar to the analysis of the LockBit ransomware, we decided to study the paths where the wipers were found in incidents related to the BlackJack and Twelve groups. As you can see from the table below, these paths are identical:

    BlackJack Twelve
    Sysvoldomainscripts Sysvoldomainscripts
    [DOMAIN]netlogon [DOMAIN]netlogon
    C:ProgramData C:ProgramData

    Summing up the analysis of the Shamoon wiper, we can confidently say that both groups use it or its components in their attacks and place them in identical directories. Moreover, the version of Shamoon that became available as a result of the leak was written in C#, whereas the variants of this wiper used in the BlackJack and Twelve attacks were rewritten in Go, further supporting the connection between these groups.

    Familiar commands and utilities

    In addition to the connections identified through analyzing the malware samples, we also discovered overlaps in the commands and tools used by both groups.

    Below are the commands found in the BlackJack and Twelve group attacks.

    Creating scheduled tasks:

    BlackJack Twelve

    Clearing event logs:

    BlackJack Twelve

    As you can see, apart from the names of the executable files, the commands are identical.

    The list of publicly available utilities used by the groups also partially overlaps:

    BlackJack Twelve
    Mimikatz
    PsExec
    Ngrok
    PuTTY
    XenAllPasswordPro
    Radmin
    AnyDesk
    Mimikatz
    PsExec
    Ngrok
    PuTTY
    XenAllPasswordPro
    chisel
    BloodHound
    adPEAS
    PowerView
    RemCom
    CrackMapExec
    WinSCP

    New activity

    During our research, we also discovered another activity that closely resembles the ones described above. At this point, we cannot definitively determine which specific group is responsible for this activity; however, the malware samples and procedures clearly indicate that the source is the activity cluster under investigation.

    The similarities we found are listed below:

    1. The discovered wiper contains the characteristic strings we saw in the Twelve and BlackJack wipers and also creates a similar MBR record.
    2. The wiper is spread through the sysvol network directory and saved using a scheduled task, which copies it to that same C:ProgramData directory.
    3. As in the BlackJack and Twelve attacks, before wiping data with the wiper, the attackers launch the ransomware ( enc.exe), which is also copied from the network folder to C:ProgramData:
    4. As in Twelve group attacks, the execution of the wiper, as well as copying the wiper and ransomware from the network directory to the C:ProgramData folder, are performed using scheduled tasks:
    Unknown threat Twelve

    Also during the investigation of this activity, various artifacts and procedures were discovered that we had not seen in the BlackJack and Twelve attacks:

    1. Using the PowerShell cmdlet GetMpPreference to gather information about disabled Windows Defender features.
    2. Creating scheduled tasks:
      Task name Command line Description
      run1 Executing the wiper from the
      C:ProgramData folder
      def Collecting information about disabled
      Windows Defender features
    3. Using WMIExec for lateral movement into the root directory.

    Victims

    The mentioned malware samples, utilities, and command lines were found in the infrastructures of government, telecommunications, and industrial companies in Russia.

    Attribution

    Based on our research, we cannot be sure that the same actors are behind the activities of both groups. However, we suspect that the BlackJack and Twelve groups are part of a unified cluster of hacktivist activity aimed at organizations located in Russia.

    Conclusion

    In this study, we demonstrated that the BlackJack and Twelve groups have similar targets and use similar malware, distributing and executing it using the same methods. At the same time, they are not interested in financial gain but aim to inflict maximum damage on target organizations by encrypting, deleting, and stealing data and resources.

    Indicators of compromise

    Wiper – Shamoon

    ED5815DDAD8188C198E0E52114173CB6                    wip.exe/wiper.exe
    5F88A76F52B470DC8E72BBA56F7D7BB2               letsgo.exe

    Ransomware – LockBit

    DA30F54A3A14AD17957C88BF638D3436                 bj.exe
    BF402251745DF3F065EBE2FFDEC9A777                  bj.exe

    File paths

    Sysvoldomainscriptswip.exe
    [DOMAIN]netlogonwip.exe
    C:ProgramDatawip.exe
    Sysvoldomainscriptsbj.exe
    [DOMAIN]netlogonbj.exe
    C:ProgramDatabj.exe
    C:ProgramDataletsgo.exe
    [DOMAIN]SYSVOL[DOMAIN]SCRIPTSletsgo.exe
    C:ProgramDataenc.exe
    [DOMAIN]SYSVOL[DOMAIN]SCRIPTSenc.exe
    C:Users[USER]Downloadsngrok-v3-stable-windows-amd64.zip
    C:Program FilesWindows Media Playerngrok.exe
    C:Users[USER]AppDataLocalngrokngrok.yml

    Scheduled task names

    copy
    run1
    go2
    im
    def

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Swaminathan J: Reaching the unreached – ensuring last mile connectivity of banking services

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Regional Director of RBI for Karnataka, Smt. Sonali Sen Gupta; Chief General Manager, NABARD, Shri KVSSLV Prasada Rao; Chief General Manager, Canara Bank and Convenor, SLBC Karnataka, Shri K.J. Shrikanth; Area Heads of Union Bank of India and Bank of Baroda, senior executives from banks; Lead District Managers (LDMs); District Development Managers (DDMs); LDOs and other officers of RBI, present here. Ellarigu Namaskara and a very good morning to all.

    Let me begin by complimenting Bengaluru Regional Office of the Reserve Bank of India for organising this conference with an apt theme – Reaching the Unreached – Ensuring Last Mile Connectivity of Banking Services. The theme reminds us that financial inclusion is an ongoing journey. While significant progress has been made in this journey, there is still some distance to be traversed. I must also thank the Bengaluru Regional Office for selecting this place, Hubballi, for this conference, a place where I served as a young officer of State Bank of India, some thirty years ago – which brings back lots of nostalgic memories of the basic banking that we used to do over three decades ago.

    India’s journey towards inclusive development after independence has been marked by several initiatives aimed at reducing poverty and improving living standards. Measures like expanding access to essential services such as education, healthcare and sanitation, and creating productive employment opportunities for all sections of the population have seen tremendous progress. Ensuring that the benefits of economic growth are shared by all segments of society, including marginalised groups has been the cornerstone of these initiatives. It has been a multifaceted journey with significant achievements in terms of economic growth, poverty alleviation, improvements in education and health care, etc.

    In the relatively early days of this journey, the Lead Bank Scheme was institutionalised in 1969 and since then the Scheme has served as an important tool in enhancing credit flow to the sectors that have been identified as national priority and to the underserved population of the country, boosting economic growth at all levels, e.g., block level, district level and state level.

    Over more than half a century since its inception, the Scheme has evolved in line with the development agenda for the country. The Lead Bank Scheme relies on a co-ordinated approach at all levels amongst banks, financial institutions and the government machinery for effective delivery of banking services to all sections of the economy. This co-ordinated approach has yielded significant results in terms of expanding banking access and improvement in the flow of priority sector credit.

    More recently it has also led to the expansion of digital payments with SLBCs taking the lead role in the objective of making every district in the country digitally enabled. I am happy to note that 354 districts are now digitally enabled. Ten states including Karnataka and six Union Territories have achieved 100 per cent coverage of districts under this initiative.

    Indeed, the Lead Bank Scheme can be a powerful tool to bring about transformative change. As LDMs, DDMs and LDOs, you are the very pillars on which this scheme rests, playing a crucial role in driving financial inclusion at grassroots level. Your efforts in extending banking services and credit access to underserved regions would undoubtedly bring immense satisfaction to all involved. Having served as the Convenor for the SLBC in Telangana, I can personally attest to the deep fulfilment that comes from making a tangible difference in people’s lives through the LBS fora.

    A common question we face is, are we doing enough? How much more remains to be done? In 2021, the Reserve Bank introduced the Financial Inclusion Index (FI-Index), which tracks progress across 97 indicators in three key dimensions: (i) Access (ii) Usage (iii) Quality. The Index which was at 53.9 in March 2021 now stands at 64.2 for March 2024 as a testimony to the efforts that has been put in by all of you.

    India has made significant strides in enhancing ‘access’ to banking and financial services, reaching even the most remote areas. However, there is still considerable ground to cover in deepening financial inclusion. This requires greater focus on promoting ‘usage’ and improving the ‘quality’ of services. In both these critical areas, the role of Lead District Managers from the banks and District Development Managers from NABARD is indispensable.

    In this context, I would like to outline a few key expectations.

    Know your district well

    Firstly, it is imperative that you cultivate a deep understanding of your respective districts-so, you should truly ‘Know Your Districts’ well. This knowledge will form a solid foundation for comprehensive district profiles, covering a wide range of critical data. Such profiles could include detailed demographic information, agricultural trends, banking penetration and activities, industrial profiles, and the various performance metrics under the Annual Credit Plans (ACP).

    Knowing your districts well, you can leverage upon data analytics and field surveys to gain insights into economic activities, local credit needs, and barriers to credit access. A holistic understanding of your district will enable you to identify gaps in financial inclusion, assess the credit needs of different sectors, and design targeted strategies for intervention. It will also help you to identify the root causes of the various issues observed in your districts. By staying attuned to your districts, you can provide invaluable feedback to the SLBCs, enabling the formulation of targeted and effective credit plans, and foster sustainable economic growth and development.

    Formulation of targeted and effective credit plans, a bottom up approach

    Secondly, building upon your strong understanding of your district, the formulation, monitoring, and implementation of Credit Plans must follow a granular bottom-up approach.

    The principal phase of credit planning is done by DDMs by preparing the Potential Linked Credit Plans (PLPs) for all the districts in the State by mapping credit potential under Priority Sector Lending (PSL). The preparation of PLPs involves assessment of block-wise and sector-wise potential. LDMs conceptualise the block credit plans at the grassroots level which aggregate into district credit plans, ultimately converging to shape the comprehensive state-level Annual Credit Plan. While doing so, target setting for credit disbursement needs to be aspirational while being realistic. LDMs must take into account the scope for lending indicated in the Potential Linked Plan as well as the past record of achievement in credit disbursement while formalising the credit plans for the blocks and districts under their charge.

    Address the gaps

    Thirdly, we need to address the remaining gaps. Although credit delivery to priority sectors has progressed over time, there is still significant work to be done especially with regard to Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises. Similarly, nearly half of Self-Help Groups (SHGs) are yet to be linked to formal credit, and a large proportion of small and marginal farmers still lack access to bank financing. Therefore, we must factor in the credit requirements of these segments in PLPs as well as in block and district-level credit strategies.

    MSMEs are crucial to India realising her demographic dividend. One of the key requirements in this regard is increasing the female labour participation rate. Various studies1 have shown that businesses with at least one women founder have a more inclusive work culture, employ more women than men and generate more revenue. However, less than 20 per cent of MSMEs are owned by women. Women entrepreneurs often encounter major hurdles, such as limited access to funding, societal barriers, and challenges in obtaining affordable finance.

    It is therefore crucial to bridge the gender gap. At the district level, this can be addressed by offering support to women-led enterprises through government-sponsored programmes and tailored banking schemes for women-owned businesses. Additionally, efforts must be made to raise awareness among potential women entrepreneurs about these opportunities and provide them with necessary guidance and support.

    Financial literacy

    Fourthly, we need to bolster financial literacy. Strengthening the supply-side is crucial, but holistic financial inclusion also necessitates demand-side initiatives. Financial literacy stands as a fundamental building block. It is not just about access, it is about empowering individuals to make informed choices. Financial literacy is the ability of people to understand and effectively use various financial skills, including personal financial management, budgeting, and investing.

    Members of public should be made aware of various financial products available to them, be it social security products such as insurance and pension schemes, which will cover their risks or loan products with significant subsidies that will enable them to undertake productive economic activities. A special focus needs to be given to Digital Financial Literacy for improving public confidence in undertaking digital transactions. This will enable banks to explore avenues for wider adoption of fintech, to provide seamless and frictionless credit.

    At the block level, financial literacy is being promoted through Centres for Financial Literacy (CFLs), established by NGOs with funding support from the RBI, NABARD, and banks. The reach of CFLs has expanded significantly, with 2,421 CFLs now operating across almost every block in the country. In Karnataka alone, 79 CFLs and 177 Financial Literacy Centres (FLCs) are spreading awareness of financial products at the grassroots level. LDMs must play a crucial role in ensuring that FLCs perform their functions effectively, supporting CFLs, participating in CFL camps, and facilitating the linkage of financial services while overseeing the proper conduct of these camps.

    In conclusion, I encourage you to give your best, set exemplary standards, and become pioneers in developmental activities, ensuring continued progress of your districts and the State of Karnataka.

    As you may be aware, the Reserve Bank of India is celebrating 90 years of its foundation this year. Looking ahead to the next decade, our journey towards RBI@100, we have formulated strategies aimed at positioning the Reserve Bank as a model central bank of the Global South. One of our key objectives is to deepen financial inclusion by enhancing the Accessibility, Availability, and Quality of financial services for all segments of society. I urge each of you to actively support us in realizing this vision by contributing to inclusive growth, ensuring that no one is left behind in accessing essential financial services, and fostering economic empowerment at the grassroots level.

    I would like to leave you with a quote from Rashtrakavi Kuvempu (an extract from his epic work “Malegaḷalli madumagaḷu”):

    ಇಲ್ಲಿಯಾರೂ ಮುಖ್ಯರಲ್ಲ
    Illi yaaroo mukhyaralla
    No one is precious here

    ಯಾರೂ ಅಮುಖ್ಯರಲ್ಲ
    Yaroo amukhyaralla
    No one is unimportant here

    ಇಲ್ಲಿ ಎಲ್ಲಕ್ಕೂ ಇದೆ ಅರ್ಥ
    Illi ellakkoo ide artha
    Everything has significance here

    ಯಾವುದೂ ಅಲ್ಲ ವ್ಯರ್ಥ
    Yavudoo alla vyartha
    Nothing is useless

    ನೀರೆಲ್ಲವೂ ತೀರ್ಥ!
    Neerellevoo theertha!
    All the water is holy!

    In the context of today’s gathering, it would mean: All groups of people are equally important and should be financially included; every effort taken for financial inclusion is meaningful and nothing goes wasted.

    With this I would like to end with my best wishes to each one of you. Thank you!


    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Kazuo Ueda: Japan’s economy and monetary policy

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Introduction

    It is my great pleasure to have the opportunity today to exchange views with a distinguished gathering of business leaders in the Kansai region. I would like to take this chance to express my sincerest gratitude for your cooperation with the activities of the Bank of Japan’s branches in Osaka, Kobe, and Kyoto. I look forward to hearing your candid opinions, which will be useful in the Bank’s policy decisions and business operations.

    Before hearing from you, I would like to talk about developments in Japan’s economic activity and prices and explain the Bank’s thinking on the conduct of monetary policy.

    I. Economic Activity and Prices

    Current Situation of and Outlook for Economic Activity

    Let me start by talking about the current situation of and outlook for economic activity in Japan. As shown in Chart 1, real GDP for the April-June quarter of 2024 increased clearly. The Bank assesses that the economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part, and expects that it will continue to recover moderately.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Michelle W Bowman: Recent views on monetary policy and the economic outlook

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Good morning. I would like to thank the Kentucky Bankers Association for the invitation to join you today for your annual convention.1 I appreciate the opportunity to share my views on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before we engage on community banking issues and other matters affecting the banking industry.

    In light of last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, I will begin my remarks by providing some perspective on my vote and will then share my current views on the economy and monetary policy.

    Update on the Most Recent FOMC Meeting

    In order to address high inflation, for more than two years, the FOMC increased and held the federal funds rate at a restrictive level. At our September meeting, the FOMC voted to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent and to continue reducing the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings.

    As the post-meeting statement noted, I dissented from the FOMC’s decision, preferring instead to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 5 to 5-1/4 percent. Last Friday, once our FOMC participant communications blackout period concluded, the Board of Governors released my statement explaining the decision to depart from the majority of the voting members. I agreed with the Committee’s assessment that, given the progress we have seen since the middle of 2023 on both lowering inflation and cooling the labor market, it was appropriate to reflect this progress by recalibrating the level of the federal funds rate and begin the process of moving toward a more neutral stance of policy. As my statement notes, I preferred a smaller initial cut in the policy rate while the U.S. economy remains strong and inflation remains a concern, despite recent progress.

    Economic Conditions and Outlook

    In recent months, we have seen some further progress on slowing the pace of inflation, with monthly readings lower than the elevated pace seen in the first three months of the year. The 12-month measure of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, which provides a broader perspective than the more volatile higher-frequency readings, has moved down since April, although it came in at 2.6 percent in July, again remaining well above our 2 percent goal. In addition, the latest consumer and producer price index reports suggest that 12-month core PCE inflation in August was likely a touch above the July reading. The persistently high core inflation largely reflects pressures on housing prices, perhaps due in part to low inventories of affordable housing. The progress in lowering inflation since April is a welcome development, but core inflation is still uncomfortably above the Committee’s 2 percent goal.

    Prices remain much higher than before the pandemic, which continues to weigh on consumer sentiment. Higher prices have an outsized effect on lower- and moderate-income households, as these households devote a significantly larger share of income to food, energy, and housing. Prices for these spending categories have far outpaced overall inflation over the past few years.

    Economic growth moderated earlier this year after coming in stronger last year. Private domestic final purchases (PDFP) growth has been solid and slowed much less than gross domestic product (GDP), as the slowdown in GDP growth was partly driven by volatile categories including net exports, suggesting that underlying economic growth was stronger than GDP indicated. PDFP has continued to increase at a solid pace so far in the third quarter, despite some further weakening in housing activity, as retail sales have shown further robust gains in July and August.

    Although personal consumption has remained resilient, consumers appear to be pulling back on discretionary items and expenses, as evidenced in part by a decline in restaurant spending since late last year. Low- and moderate-income consumers no longer have extra savings to support this type of spending, and we have seen loan delinquency rates normalize from historically low levels during the pandemic.

    The most recent labor market report shows that payroll employment gains have slowed appreciably to a pace moderately above 100,000 per month over the three months ending in August. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2 percent in August from 4.3 percent in July. While unemployment is notably higher than a year ago, it is still at a historically low level and below my and the Congressional Budget Office’s estimates of full employment.

    The labor market has loosened from the extremely tight conditions of the past few years. The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers has declined further to a touch below the historically elevated pre-pandemic level-a sign that the number of available workers and the number of available jobs have come into better balance. But there are still more available jobs than available workers, a condition that before 2018 has only occurred twice for a prolonged period since World War II, further signaling ongoing labor market strength despite the reported data.

    Although wage growth has slowed further in recent months, it remains indicative of a tight labor market. At just under 4 percent, as measured by both the employment cost index and average hourly earnings, wage gains are still above the pace consistent with our inflation goal given trend productivity growth.

    The rise in the unemployment rate this year largely reflects weaker hiring, as job seekers entering or re-entering the labor force are taking longer to find work, while layoffs remain low. In addition to some cooling in labor demand, there are other factors likely contributing the increased unemployment. A mismatch between the skills of the new workers and available jobs could further raise unemployment, suggesting that higher unemployment has been partly driven by the stronger supply of workers. It is also likely that some temporary factors contributed to the recent rise in the unemployment rate, as unemployment among working age teenagers sharply increased in August.

    Preference for a More Measured Recalibration of Policy

    The U.S. economy remains strong and core inflation remains uncomfortably above our 2 percent target. In light of these economic conditions, a few further considerations supported the case for a more measured approach in beginning the process to recalibrate our policy stance to remove restriction and move toward a more neutral setting.

    First, I was concerned that reducing the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point could be interpreted as a signal that the Committee sees some fragility or greater downside risks to the economy. In the current economic environment, with no clear signs of material weakening or fragility, in my view, beginning the rate-cutting cycle with a 1/4 percentage point move would have better reinforced the strength in economic conditions, while also confidently recognizing progress toward our goals. In my mind, a more measured approach would have avoided the risk of unintentionally signaling concerns about underlying economic conditions.

    Second, I was also concerned that reducing the policy rate by 1/2 percentage point could have led market participants to expect that the Committee would lower the target range by that same pace at future meetings until the policy rate approaches a neutral level. If this expectation had materialized, we could have seen an unwarranted decline in longer-term interest rates and broader financial conditions could become overly accommodative. This outcome could work against the Committee’s goal of returning inflation to our 2 percent target.

    I am pleased that Chair Powell directly addressed both of these concerns during the press conference following last week’s FOMC meeting.

    Third, there continues to be a considerable amount of pent-up demand and cash on the sidelines ready to be deployed as the path of interest rates moves down. Bringing the policy rate down too quickly carries the risk of unleashing that pent-up demand. A more measured approach would also avoid unnecessarily stoking demand and potentially reigniting inflationary pressures.

    Finally, in dialing back our restrictive stance of policy, we also need to be mindful of what the end point is likely to be. My estimate of the neutral rate is much higher than it was before the pandemic. Therefore, I think we are much closer to neutral than would have been the case under pre-pandemic conditions, and I did not see the peak stance of policy as restrictive to the same extent that my colleagues may have. With a higher estimate of neutral, for any given pace of rate reductions, we would arrive at our destination sooner.

    Ongoing Risks to the Outlook

    Turning to the risks to achieving our dual mandate, I continue to see greater risks to price stability, especially while the labor market continues to be near estimates of full employment. Although the labor market data have been showing signs of cooling in recent months, still-elevated wage growth, solid consumer spending, and resilient GDP growth are not consistent with a material economic weakening or fragility. My contacts also continue to mention that they are not planning layoffs and continue to have difficulty hiring. Therefore, I am taking less signal from the recent labor market data until there are clear trends indicating that both spending growth and the labor market have materially weakened. I suspect the recent immigration flows have and will continue to affect labor markets in ways that we do not yet fully understand and cannot yet accurately measure. In light of the dissonance created by conflicting economic signals, measurement challenges, and data revisions, I remain cautious about taking signal from only a limited set of real-time data releases.

    In my view, the upside risks to inflation remain prominent. Global supply chains continue to be susceptible to labor strikes and increased geopolitical tensions, which could result in inflationary effects on food, energy, and other commodity markets. Expansionary fiscal spending could also lead to inflationary risks, as could an increased demand for housing given the long-standing limited supply, especially of affordable housing. While it has not been my baseline outlook, I cannot rule out the risk that progress on inflation could continue to stall.

    Although it is important to recognize that there has been meaningful progress on lowering inflation, while core inflation remains around or above 2.5 percent, I see the risk that the Committee’s larger policy action could be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on our price-stability mandate. Accomplishing our mission of returning to low and stable inflation at our 2 percent goal is necessary to foster a strong labor market and an economy that works for everyone in the longer term.

    In light of these considerations, I believe that, by moving at a measured pace toward a more neutral policy stance, we will be better positioned to achieve further progress in bringing inflation down to our 2 percent target, while closely watching the evolution of labor market conditions.

    The Path Forward

    Despite my dissent at the recent FOMC meeting, I respect and appreciate that my FOMC colleagues preferred to begin the reduction in the federal funds rate with a larger initial cut in the target range for the policy rate. I remain committed to working together with my colleagues to ensure that monetary policy is appropriately positioned to achieve our goals of attaining maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2 percent target.

    I will continue to monitor the incoming data and information as I assess the appropriate path of monetary policy, and I will remain cautious in my approach to adjusting the stance of policy going forward. It is important to note that monetary policy is not on a preset course. My colleagues and I will make our decisions at each FOMC meeting based on the incoming data and the implications for and risks to the outlook guided by the Fed’s dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices. We need to ensure that the public understands clearly how current and expected deviations of inflation and employment from our mandated goals inform our policy decisions.

    By the time of our next meeting in November, we will have received updated reports on inflation, employment, and economic activity. We may also have a better understanding of how developments in longer-term interest rates and broader financial conditions might influence the economic outlook.

    During the intermeeting period, I will continue to visit with a broad range of contacts to discuss economic conditions as I assess the appropriateness of our monetary policy stance. As I noted earlier, I continue to view inflation as a concern. In light of the upside risks that I just described, it remains necessary to pay close attention to the price-stability side of our mandate while being attentive to the risks of a material weakening in the labor market. My view continues to be that restoring price stability is essential for achieving maximum employment over the longer run. However, should the data evolve in a way that points to a material weakening in the labor market, I would support taking action and adjust monetary policy as needed while taking into account our inflation mandate.

    Closing Thoughts

    In closing, thank you again for welcoming me here today. It is a pleasure to join you and to have the opportunity to discuss my views on the economy and monetary policy. And given the recent FOMC meeting decision and my dissent, I appreciate being able to provide a more detailed explanation of the reasoning that led me to dissent in favor of a smaller reduction in the policy rate at last week’s FOMC meeting.

    I look forward to answering your questions and to engaging with your members on bank regulatory and supervisory matters.


    MIL OSI Economics