Source: China State Council Information Office
This photo taken on Dec. 18, 2024 shows a view of the Voelklingen Ironworks in Saarland, Germany. [Photo/Xinhua]
U.S. President Donald Trump’s first days in the White House have sent ripples of unease through Europe. Accusing the EU of unfair treatment, Trump has vowed to impose tariffs to address trade imbalances.
In response, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met in Paris on Wednesday, describing Trump as “a challenge” for Europe while stressing Europe’s strength and unity.
Trump’s policies are poised to affect not just U.S.-Europe trade relations but also Europe’s territorial integrity, defense priorities and economic outlook.
“President Trump’s initial statements and executive orders put transatlantic relations under pressure, not only because of their unpredictability, but also because raw power seems to be more important than legality and international cooperation,” said Philippe Monnier, former executive director of the Greater Geneva Berne Area’s Economic Development Agency.
Bleak economic outlook
The specter of U.S. tariffs on EU imports threatens to send shockwaves through the European economy. Although many EU countries have taken lessons from Trump’s first term and braced themselves for such scenarios, the potential impact remains significant.
Yannis Stournaras, governor of the Bank of Greece, warned that the projected eurozone economic growth of 1.1 percent in 2025 could decline by 0.5 percentage point within two years if the United States imposes 10-percent tariffs.
The effects are expected to be more pronounced in European economies with substantial exports to the United States. Export-oriented countries like Germany are likely to bear the brunt first.
Germany’s exports to America could decline by 10-15 percent in the long term, potentially reducing its GDP by 0.3 percent, said Moritz Schularick, president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. “It might not sound like much, but we’ve barely had any growth beyond that level recently.”
“Trump isn’t concerned with the interests of the Old Continent. He just wants to squeeze more money out of Europeans,” Francois Heisbourg, special advisor at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told Austrian newspaper Der Standard.
Italy, a close U.S. ally notwithstanding, is also expected to face challenges. With its significant trade surplus with the United States and relatively low defense spending, Italy is likely to be targeted by Trump’s tariff policies, according to the Italian Institute for International Political Studies.
Speaking at the Handelsblatt Energy Summit in Berlin on Tuesday, German Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck said that while Germany should engage with the new government under Trump with “an outstretched hand… We should not crawl in submission.”
He warned that Germany is ready with countermeasures should tariffs be imposed. “We do not need to be pushed around.”
Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU’s economy commissioner, also affirmed the EU’s readiness to respond in “a proportionate way” to any U.S. actions.
Monnier cautioned that strained transatlantic ties could escalate further.
Pushback in Europe
On top of trade, Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organization (WHO) has deepened rifts with his European counterparts, who remain strong advocates of climate action and global health initiatives.
Addressing the 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “The world is not at a single inflection point; it is at multi-inflection points.” She reaffirmed the EU’s commitment to the Paris Climate Agreement and urged countries to “deepen global collaboration more than ever before.”
In an interview on Tuesday with Bel RTL, a local media outlet, Belgian Foreign Minister Bernard Quintin voiced concerns over Trump’s isolationist tendencies, viewing them as a culmination of a longstanding trend of U.S. unilateralism.
Critics argue that Trump’s withdrawals allow the United States to evade its financial responsibilities toward global climate protection and public health initiatives.
“This is certainly not a good sign for international climate protection” if the United States is not included, climate researcher Niklas Hoehne from the NewClimate Institute told Germany’s dpa news agency, saying such moves made global climate achievements “more difficult.”
An analysis by Climate Action Tracker, a Berlin-based non-profit climate science and policy institute, estimates that the U.S. withdrawal alone could add 0.04 degree Celsius to global warming by the end of the century.
Europe’s sense of urgency
Trump’s “America First” agenda has galvanized European leaders to advocate for greater autonomy from Washington.
In the realm of defense, Macron has called for a reevaluation of Europe’s defense spending. He said on Monday that Europe’s military budgets of billions of euros should not be directed toward purchasing American weapons.
A report on Europe’s future competitiveness authored by Mario Draghi, former Italian prime minister and former European Central Bank president, revealed that between June 2022 and June 2023, nearly two-thirds of the EU’s defense spending was directed to U.S. companies.
During a joint press conference with Scholz on Wednesday, Macron stressed the need for Europeans “to play their full part in consolidating a united, strong and sovereign Europe.” France and Germany should ensure that Europe is capable of defending its interests while maintaining transatlantic ties, he said.
The recent revelation of Trump’s interest in acquiring Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, has further alarmed European nations.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot has warned of the resurgence of “might makes right” policies, calling on Europe to bolster its strength. Speaking to France Inter radio recently, Barrot noted that Greenland is a “territory of the European Union and of Europe.”
“It is undoubtedly no way that the European Union would let other nations of the world, whoever they are, attack its sovereign borders,” he said.
Schularick, the Kiel Institute president, said: “What is certain is that Trump is more interested in deals than in a rules-based global economy. The era of faster globalization, lower tariffs and dispute resolution within the framework of the World Trade Organization is now temporarily over.”
“Europeans cannot remain passive at the risk of disappearing tomorrow,” Jordan Bardella, president of France’s National Rally party and member of the European Parliament, said at the European Parliament on Tuesday.
With Trump’s comeback, Europe faces a critical juncture — whether to remain tethered to Washington or chart its own course in the face of renewed challenges.
“The EU needs to make changes, and this is a good opportunity to get rid of its dependence on Washington and implement its own independent policies by cooperating with other countries in Asia, South America and Africa,” said Croatian political analyst Robert Frank.
MIL OSI China News –