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Category: Europe

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 20, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 20, 2025.

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    West Australian miners flexed their muscle to block a federal EPA last year. Will it be different this time?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diane Dowdell, PhD Candidate in Sustainable Mining, The University of Queensland CUHRIG/Getty This week, Environment Minister Murray Watt met with groups representing business, the environment, renewable energy and First Nations communities in a bid to restart Labor’s stalled environmental reforms. There was one group in the room

    Eugene Doyle: How centrifugal forces have been unleashed in Iran
    COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran is literally and figuratively designed to unleash centrifugal forces in the Islamic Republic. Two nuclear powers are currently involved in the bombing of the nuclear facilities of a third state. One of them, the US has — for the moment — limited itself to handling

    Technology to enforce teen social media ban is ‘effective’, trial says. But this is at odds with other evidence
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University MAYA LAB/Shutterstock Technologies to enforce the Australian government’s social media ban for under 16s are “private, robust and effective”. That’s according to the preliminary findings of a federal government-commissioned trial that

    A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal. The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the

    6 things Australia must do if it’s serious about tackling school bullying
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Miller, Lecturer in Education (Classroom Management), Southern Cross University Wander Women/ Getty Images Bullying is arguably one of the most serious issues facing Australia’s schools. About one in four students between Year 4 and Year 9 report being bullied regularly. This can have serious and lasting

    Keith Rankin Analysis – America’s imperial ‘gifts’: ‘Crusader Democracy’ and ‘Christian Nationalism’
    Analysis by Keith Rankin. The United States has always fancied itself as the founder of modern democracy (aka ‘Democracy’). And, although that country has been self-absorbed for most of its history, it has always sensed that Democracy was its greatest export. ‘America’ became involved in Africa and the ‘Middle East’ very early in its history.

    Many elite athletes live below the poverty line. Tax-deductible donations won’t solve the problem
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University Australia’s Jaclyn Narracott competes in the women’s skeleton at the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics. Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images As the end of the 2024-25 financial year nears, the Australian Olympic Committee (AOC), in partnership with the

    Bribe or community benefit? Sweeteners smoothing the way for renewables projects need to be done right
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Breakey, Deputy Director, Institute for Ethics, Governance & Law, Griffith University Louise Beaumont/Getty When a renewable energy developer announces a new project, there’s one big question mark – how will nearby communities react? Community pushback has scuttled many renewables projects. Sometimes, communities are angry landowners hosting

    Despite decades of cost cutting, governments spend more than ever. How can we make sense of this?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Lovering, Lecturer in International Relations, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images Recent controversies over New Zealand’s Ka Ora, Ka Ako school lunch program have revolved around the apparent shortcomings of the food and its delivery. Stories of inedible meals, scalding packaging and

    Is there any hope for a fairer carve-up of the GST between the states?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Saul Eslake, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania When the Western Australian state government handed down its state budget on Thursday, it showed a balance sheet solidly in the black with a A$2.5 billion surplus. But, as it has for seven years, the state has received an outsized

    Jaws at 50: the first summer blockbuster is still a film that bites – even when the shark didn’t work
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Will Jeffery, Sessional Academic, Discipline of Film Studies, University of Sydney Photo by Sunset Boulevard/Corbis via Getty Images When I was eight years old, on a Saturday night before surf lifesaving training, my dad put on the film Jaws and it changed my life forever. Unlike the

    New cases of meningococcal disease have been detected. What are the symptoms? And who can get vaccinated?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Archana Koirala, Paediatrician and Infectious Diseases Specialist; Clinical Researcher, University of Sydney Two Tasmanian women have been hospitalised with invasive meningococcal disease, bringing the number of cases nationally so far this year to 48. Health authorities are urging people to watch for symptoms and to check if

    Grattan on Friday: Sussan Ley has her first big outing with the national media next week, so here are some questions for her
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra On Wednesday, Opposition Leader Sussan Ley will front the National Press Club. So why is that a big deal? For one thing, her predecessor Peter Dutton never appeared there as opposition leader. For another, it’s a formidable forum for a

    A war on diplomacy itself – Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran
    ANALYSIS: By Joe Hendren Had Israel not launched its unprovoked attack on Iran on Friday night, in direct violation of the UN Charter, Iran would now be taking part in the sixth round of negotiations concerning the future of its nuclear programme, meeting with representatives from the United States in Muscat, the capital of Oman.

    Why New Zealand has paused funding to the Cook Islands over China deal
    BACKGROUNDER: By Christina Persico, RNZ Pacific bulletin editor/presenter;Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific; and Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific senior journalist New Zealand has paused $18.2 million in development assistance funding to the Cook Islands after its government signed partnership agreements with China earlier this year. This move is causing consternation in the realm country, with one local

    Egyptian crackdown on Gaza blockade busters but Kiwi activists vow to ‘defeat genocide’
    SPECIAL REPORT: By Saige England in Ōtautahi and Ava Mulla in Cairo Hope for freedom for Palestinians remains high among a group of trauma-struck New Zealanders in Cairo. In spite of extensive planning, the Global March To Gaza (GMTG) delegation of about 4000 international aid volunteers was thwarted in its mission to walk from Cairo

    The 28 Days Later franchise redefined zombie films. But the undead have an old, rich and varied history
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher White, Historian, The University of Queensland The history of the dead – or, more precisely, the history of the living’s fascination with the dead – is an intriguing one. As a researcher of the supernatural, I’m often pulled aside at conferences or at the school gate,

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Russia: China Accuses Philippines of Illegal Operations in South China Sea

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    BEIJING, June 20 (Xinhua) — China Coast Guard (CCG) spokesman Liu Dejun on Thursday warned the Philippines that any attempt to encroach on China’s territorial sovereignty is doomed to fail.

    The BOC took action against the recent illegal activities of Philippine vessels in the South China Sea in accordance with the law and professional standards of conduct according to the situation, Liu Dejun said.

    From Sunday to Wednesday, the Philippines sent several vessels to conduct illegal operations in waters adjacent to the Nansha Islands, including Banyue Reef and Jianzhang Reef, in the South China Sea, he said.

    “Philippine vessels have repeatedly committed illegal violations and provocations under the pretext of ‘protecting fisheries’, undermining peace and stability in the South China Sea,” he stressed.

    He stressed that China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands, including Banyue and Jianzhang Reefs, and the adjacent waters.

    According to Liu Dejun, the BOC will continue to conduct regular law enforcement operations in waters under China’s jurisdiction to protect China’s national sovereignty and maritime rights and interests. -0-

    MIL OSI Russia News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Russia: ​ Summer Scenery of Daqingshan Nature Reserve in Inner Mongolia

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Russians. Ori.org.KN | 20. 06. 2025

    Key words: Inner Mongolia

    1   2   3   4   5   6   >  

    Source: russian.china.org.cn

    ​ Summer Scenery of Daqingshan Nature Reserve in Inner Mongolia This photo shows beautiful summer scenery in Daqingshan National Nature Reserve in northern Hohhot City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Russia: Exclusive: China’s Development Opens Unique ‘Window of Opportunity’ for Central Asia — Kyrgyz Political Scientist

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    BISHKEK, June 20 /Xinhua/ — The development of modern China opens a unique “window of opportunity” for Central Asia: from industrialization and market expansion to sustainable development and investment in human capital, Kyrgyz political scientist, professor of international relations at Ala-Too International University Kubanychbek Taabaldiev said in a recent exclusive interview with Xinhua.

    “China, given its sustainable development and the weight it has acquired in global politics and economics, is capable of becoming an example in many areas, such as economic modernization, poverty reduction, technological progress and the development of information technology, and the transition from an economy of raw materials supplies to the production of high-tech products,” he noted.

    One of the most important factors for this, according to the political scientist, is the colossal domestic market of China. The countries of Central Asia can increase their supplies to the Chinese market not only of natural raw materials and energy resources, but also of finished goods, including environmentally friendly agricultural products.

    According to K. Taabaldiev, China demonstrates a very high readiness to develop relations with all Central Asian countries. “China takes into account the strategy of the countries of the region as a whole and demonstrates a persistent desire to combine the Belt and Road Initiative with the interests of the five Central Asian countries,” he said, adding that the country also expressed its support for the national development plans of the region.

    According to the expert, the infrastructure projects being implemented in Central Asia stand out especially brightly – the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which should lead to noticeable changes in the logistical structure of the region’s economy.

    As an example in this area, the political scientist also cited the construction of an alternative North-South highway in Kyrgyzstan. “The highway will not only allow the development of Kyrgyzstan’s internal regions, but will also enable many countries to deliver international transit cargo by the shortest route,” he said.

    As K. Taabaldiev emphasized, given the economic growth in the Central Asian countries, China is interested in implementing joint projects in such areas as the implementation of renewable energy sources, initiated a project to develop the digital Silk Road and at the same time emphasizes its interest in the sustainable development of all of Central Asia.

    Speaking about the Treaty on Eternal Good-Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation between China and the Central Asian Countries, signed on Tuesday during the second China-Central Asia Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, the expert believes that the document allows the countries of the region and China to jointly create a well-thought-out basis for coordinated strategic planning of joint development.

    “The Astana summit demonstrated a unified spirit of mutual trust among its participants,” he concluded. –0–

    MIL OSI Russia News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    As Israel continues its attacks on Iran, US President Donald Trump and other global leaders are hardening their stance against the Islamic Republic.

    While considering a US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump has threatened Iran’s supreme leader, claiming to know his location and calling him “an easy target”. He has demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran.

    Meanwhile, countries such as Germany, Canada, the UK and Australia have toughened their rhetoric, demanding Iran fully abandon its nuclear program.

    So, as the pressure mounts on Iran, has it been left to fight alone? Or does it have allies that could come to its aid?

    Has Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ fully collapsed?

    Iran has long relied on a network of allied paramilitary groups across the Middle East as part of its deterrence strategy. This approach has largely shielded it from direct military strikes by the US or Israel, despite constant threats and pressure.

    This so-called “axis of resistance” includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthi militants in Yemen, as well as Hamas in Gaza, which has long been under Iran’s influence to varying degrees. Iran also supported Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria before it was toppled last year.

    These groups have served both as a regional buffer and as a means for Iran to project power without direct engagement.

    However, over the past two years, Israel has dealt significant blows to the network.

    Hezbollah — once Iran’s most powerful non-state ally — has been effectively neutralised after months of attacks by Israel. Its weapons stocks were systematically targeted and destroyed across Lebanon. And the group suffered a major psychological and strategic loss with the assassination of its most influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

    In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely expelled following the fall of Assad’s regime, stripping Iran of another key foothold in the region.

    That said, Iran maintains strong influence in Iraq and Yemen.

    The PMF in Iraq, with an estimated 200,000 fighters, remains formidable. The Houthis have similarly sized contingent of fighters in Yemen.

    Should the situation escalate into an existential threat to Iran — as the region’s only Shiite-led state — religious solidarity could drive these groups to become actively involved. This would rapidly expand the war across the region.

    The PMF, for instance, could launch attacks on the 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq. Indeed, the head of Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the PMF’s more hardline factions, promised to do so:

    If America dares to intervene in the war, we will directly target its interests and military bases spread across the region without hesitation.

    Iran itself could also target US bases in the Persian Gulf countries with ballistic missiles, as well as close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows.

    Will Iran’s regional and global allies step in?

    Several regional powers maintain close ties with Iran. The most notable among them is Pakistan — the only Islamic country with a nuclear arsenal.

    For weeks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has tried to align Iran more closely with Pakistan in countering Israel’s actions in Gaza.

    In a sign of Pakistan’s importance in the Israel-Iran war, Trump has met with the country’s army chief in Washington as he weighs a possible strike on its neighbour.

    Pakistan’s leaders have also made their allegiances very clear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered Iran’s president “unwavering solidarity” in the “face of Israel’s unprovoked aggression”. And Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently said in an interview Israel will “think many times before taking on Pakistan”.

    These statements signal a firm stance without explicitly committing to intervention.

    Yet, Pakistan has also been working to de-escalate tensions. It has urged other Muslim-majority nations and its strategic partner, China, to intervene diplomatically before the violence spirals into a broader regional war.

    In recent years, Iran has also made diplomatic overtures to former regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to improve relations.

    These shifts have helped rally broader regional support for Iran. Nearly two dozen Muslim-majority countries — including some that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel — have jointly condemned Israel’s actions and urged de-escalation.

    It’s unlikely, though, that regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey would support Iran materially, given their strong alliances with the US.

    Iran’s key global allies, Russia and China, have also condemned Israel’s strikes. They have previously shielded Tehran from punitive resolutions at the UN Security Council.

    However, neither power appears willing — at least for now — to escalate the confrontation by providing direct military support to Iran or engaging in a standoff with Israel and the US.

    Theoretically, this could change if the conflict widens and Washington openly pursues a regime change strategy in Tehran. Both nations have major geopolitical and security interests in Iran’s stability. This is due to Iran’s long-standing “Look East” policy and the impact its instability could have on the region and the global economy.

    However, at the current stage, many analysts believe both are unlikely to get involved directly.

    Moscow stayed on the sidelines when Assad’s regime collapsed in Syria, one of Russia’s closest allies in the region. Not only is it focused on its war in Ukraine, Russia also wouldn’t want to endanger improving ties with the Trump administration.

    China has offered Iran strong rhetorical support, but history suggests it has little interest in getting directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts.

    Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war? – https://theconversation.com/who-are-irans-allies-and-would-any-help-if-the-us-joins-israel-in-its-war-259265

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    As Israel continues its attacks on Iran, US President Donald Trump and other global leaders are hardening their stance against the Islamic Republic.

    While considering a US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump has threatened Iran’s supreme leader, claiming to know his location and calling him “an easy target”. He has demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran.

    Meanwhile, countries such as Germany, Canada, the UK and Australia have toughened their rhetoric, demanding Iran fully abandon its nuclear program.

    So, as the pressure mounts on Iran, has it been left to fight alone? Or does it have allies that could come to its aid?

    Has Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ fully collapsed?

    Iran has long relied on a network of allied paramilitary groups across the Middle East as part of its deterrence strategy. This approach has largely shielded it from direct military strikes by the US or Israel, despite constant threats and pressure.

    This so-called “axis of resistance” includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthi militants in Yemen, as well as Hamas in Gaza, which has long been under Iran’s influence to varying degrees. Iran also supported Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria before it was toppled last year.

    These groups have served both as a regional buffer and as a means for Iran to project power without direct engagement.

    However, over the past two years, Israel has dealt significant blows to the network.

    Hezbollah — once Iran’s most powerful non-state ally — has been effectively neutralised after months of attacks by Israel. Its weapons stocks were systematically targeted and destroyed across Lebanon. And the group suffered a major psychological and strategic loss with the assassination of its most influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

    In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely expelled following the fall of Assad’s regime, stripping Iran of another key foothold in the region.

    That said, Iran maintains strong influence in Iraq and Yemen.

    The PMF in Iraq, with an estimated 200,000 fighters, remains formidable. The Houthis have similarly sized contingent of fighters in Yemen.

    Should the situation escalate into an existential threat to Iran — as the region’s only Shiite-led state — religious solidarity could drive these groups to become actively involved. This would rapidly expand the war across the region.

    The PMF, for instance, could launch attacks on the 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq. Indeed, the head of Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the PMF’s more hardline factions, promised to do so:

    If America dares to intervene in the war, we will directly target its interests and military bases spread across the region without hesitation.

    Iran itself could also target US bases in the Persian Gulf countries with ballistic missiles, as well as close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows.

    Will Iran’s regional and global allies step in?

    Several regional powers maintain close ties with Iran. The most notable among them is Pakistan — the only Islamic country with a nuclear arsenal.

    For weeks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has tried to align Iran more closely with Pakistan in countering Israel’s actions in Gaza.

    In a sign of Pakistan’s importance in the Israel-Iran war, Trump has met with the country’s army chief in Washington as he weighs a possible strike on its neighbour.

    Pakistan’s leaders have also made their allegiances very clear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered Iran’s president “unwavering solidarity” in the “face of Israel’s unprovoked aggression”. And Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently said in an interview Israel will “think many times before taking on Pakistan”.

    These statements signal a firm stance without explicitly committing to intervention.

    Yet, Pakistan has also been working to de-escalate tensions. It has urged other Muslim-majority nations and its strategic partner, China, to intervene diplomatically before the violence spirals into a broader regional war.

    In recent years, Iran has also made diplomatic overtures to former regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to improve relations.

    These shifts have helped rally broader regional support for Iran. Nearly two dozen Muslim-majority countries — including some that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel — have jointly condemned Israel’s actions and urged de-escalation.

    It’s unlikely, though, that regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey would support Iran materially, given their strong alliances with the US.

    Iran’s key global allies, Russia and China, have also condemned Israel’s strikes. They have previously shielded Tehran from punitive resolutions at the UN Security Council.

    However, neither power appears willing — at least for now — to escalate the confrontation by providing direct military support to Iran or engaging in a standoff with Israel and the US.

    Theoretically, this could change if the conflict widens and Washington openly pursues a regime change strategy in Tehran. Both nations have major geopolitical and security interests in Iran’s stability. This is due to Iran’s long-standing “Look East” policy and the impact its instability could have on the region and the global economy.

    However, at the current stage, many analysts believe both are unlikely to get involved directly.

    Moscow stayed on the sidelines when Assad’s regime collapsed in Syria, one of Russia’s closest allies in the region. Not only is it focused on its war in Ukraine, Russia also wouldn’t want to endanger improving ties with the Trump administration.

    China has offered Iran strong rhetorical support, but history suggests it has little interest in getting directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts.

    Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war? – https://theconversation.com/who-are-irans-allies-and-would-any-help-if-the-us-joins-israel-in-its-war-259265

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Hessom Razavi, Clinical Associate Professor of Ophthalmology, The University of Western Australia

    We are at a dinner party in suburban Perth, a home away from home for our diaspora. As guests arrive, a Persian ballad plays in the background: Morq-e Sahar (Dawn Bird), a freedom song, a century-old protest against dictatorships and tyranny in Iran. This version was sung by the late Mohammad-Reza Shajarian, Iran’s most decorated maestro.

    Dawn bird, lament!
    Make my brand burn even more.
    With the sparks from your sigh, break
    And turn this cage upside down.

    Shajarian’s virtuoso voice frames an old question. One I’ve heard, it seems, at every Iranian gathering since my childhood. It hangs in the air like a cloud, unanswered, as guests greet each other with customary bowing and rooboosi (cheek kissing). We settle around a table laden with âjil (trail mix), fruit and wine, the smell of saffron rice and ghorme sabzi (herb stew) all around.

    For me, the scene is both familial and familiar. As is the question, which circles back around. “When will this regime change?” someone asks. The “regime” is Nezâm-e Jomhuri-ye Eslâmi-ye Irân, or the Regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    A missing voice

    Since the launch of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion against Iran last week, there has been a voice sometimes missing in the mainstream coverage – that of the Iranian people themselves.

    “Israel is not our enemy, the regime is our enemy,” chant many Iranians in Tehran and in the diaspora, a common sentiment in our community. They cite the regime that they have endured for 46 years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution: a government most of them oppose and reject, with the vast majority of Iranians preferring democratic, if not secular, reform.

    I hear some Iranians, on social media and in conversation with people who live there, commending Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu for assassinating Iran’s top military brass. These are the leaders of the Sepah, or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the most powerful branch of the Iranian Armed Forces. Together with the mullahs – Iran’s Shia Muslim clerical class – they form the backbone of Iran’s government and economy.

    So far, Israel has assassinated Hossein Salami, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, as well as Mohammad Kazemi, its intelligence chief, plus senior nuclear scientists and dozens of other officers. Israel has also indicated an interest in killing Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

    “Damet garm, aghayeh Netanyahu,” some Iranians are saying, literally “may your breath be warm”, or “good job, Netanyahu”. Amid the terror and confusion – not to mention the civilian deaths, so far, of over 200 Iranians – there is a rare and distinct sense of hope.

    State of corruption

    In view of Israel’s ongoing campaign in Gaza, this support for Israel may come as a surprise to many Australians, and Western liberals in general. Certainly, reconciling Israel’s role in Gaza versus Iran is jarring.

    But for now, I hear some Iranians saying “maybe our regime can finally be toppled”. Maybe Iran can reclaim its place in the international community, as the proud and prosperous nation it should be? As this crisis escalates, as buildings collapse and distressed Tehranis, including my family, flee the capital for the safety of the countryside, there is a heady sense of possibility.

    Wing-tied nightingale come out of the corner of your cage, and
    Sing the song of freedom for human kind.
    With your fiery breath ignite,
    The breath of this peopled land …

    I understand the allure of this hope; to an extent, I feel it myself. My family lives in Australia, not Iran, precisely because of the Iranian regime’s tyranny. We fled Iran in 1983 due to political persecution, after most of the adults in our extended family were arbitrarily arrested and imprisoned by the government.

    Two of my imprisoned uncles and one of my aunties were executed. Another uncle was beaten to death in custody. My grandfather, a noble old man, was imprisoned and tortured. We were far from unique; during the 1980s, the government imprisoned tens of thousands of its own people, executing many thousands of them.

    Little has changed since then. The Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guards have shown a pervasive disregard for human rights. They execute more of their own people than any country except China. They are a world leader in the use of torture; they deny freedoms of expression and press, association and assembly; they discriminate against women, girls, religious minorities, LGBTI people, and refugees. Tightly controlled elections ensure the success of desired candidates.

    Freedom House, a nonprofit organisation based in the US, gives Iran a score of 11 out of 100 for its provision of political rights and civil liberties. For many Iranians, it felt overdue when, in 2019, the US listed the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation, a decision followed by other countries, including Canada and Sweden. In 2023, the European parliament overwhelmingly voted for a resolution to do the same, with calls to expedite this motion in early 2025.

    In parallel to their human rights abuses, the Revolutionary Guard has hobbled the Iranian economy. Their corruption, financial incompetence and operation of black markets have compounded the effects of international sanctions. Consequently, the Iranian rial hit a historic low this year. It is now worth around one twentieth of its value in 2015.

    People’s life savings have dwindled in value, rendering older Iranians financially vulnerable. Inflation was 38.7% in May of this year, down from highs of over 40%. My family in Iran experience this as grocery and commodity prices that may rise in a single day, higher in the afternoon than in the morning. Some cities have experienced water cuts and power outages.

    While it hasn’t yet qualified as a failed state, Iran has been failing.

    All of this has occurred despite the country being richly endowed with the second- and third-highest natural gas and oil reserves in the world, respectively. Iran has a GDP of over $US404 billion – 36th in the world. Its youth are highly educated and literate, with more women enrolled in universities than men.

    Rather than accelerating the nation’s domestic development, however, the Iranian government has by its own admission spent tens of billions of dollars to expand its empire by funding terrorist proxies: Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the recently deposed Assad regime in Syria, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

    The Iranian people have suffered financially, but the Revolutionary Guards have not. They are estimated to control at least 10%, and up to 50%, of the country’s total economy, including up to an estimated 50% share of Iran’s US$50 billion per year oil profits. They have achieved this by commandeering an industrial empire, made up of hundreds of commercial companies, trusts, subsidiaries and nominally charitable foundations.

    A further US$2 billion or more per year comes from the government’s military budget, with periodic boosts during crises. Add to this the alleged shadowy operation of black markets, extortion, and the smuggling of alcohol, narcotics and weapons, accounting for an estimated US$12 billion per year in revenue.

    Contemplating this corruption, I am reminded of an anecdote from a personal associate who worked for a firm affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard. They shared stories of officers, the nation’s purported “guardians of Islam”, hosting parties where alcohol, firearms and sex workers were readily available.

    My associate recounted several instances of fraud and theft, one of them monumental in scale. In this “tea smuggling scandal”, the Revolutionary Guard defrauded billions of dollars from a government fund by illicitly exchanging some funds on the open market, falsely labelling cheap tea to on-sell as superior quality tea, and falsely labelling domestically produced machinery as “Made in Germany”.

    “They’re untouchable, and they know it”, my associate said. Another Iranian community member described them to me as “Iran’s super-mafia”.

    Speaking to family in Iran, they say many of the middle tier Revolutionary Guards live in their own shahrak-ha (towns) with dedicated markets, schools and resorts. Many of the Guards’ elite, meanwhile, live in mansions in the exclusive parts of north Tehran, with children who pursue conspicuously American “lifestyles of the rich and famous”. For an organisation that leads the chants of “marg bar America!” (death to America), one wonders if they see the irony in this.

    Turn our dark night to dawn

    I find myself sickened by the events of this war, and the harm it is causing. Struck with anxiety, some of our family members in Tehran haven’t slept for days. “The Israeli bombardments are non-stop, and so loud,” one family member told me.

    This week our extended family has struggled frantically to leave Tehran. Petrol is hard to come by and, in a mass exodus, the bumper-to-bumper traffic stands still for hours. I know some of the neighbourhoods being bombed; we lived in one of them in my childhood.

    “For every military commander that’s assassinated, a whole building might collapse, and with a dozen civilians trapped or killed,” another person told me, intimating that the civilian toll is higher than official counts.

    I am also worried about the raised hopes of Iranians. I have seen this before, when a spark – sometimes an inspirational act of courage from an ordinary citizen – leads to public surges in solidarity. At these moments during my childhood, my parents would tell me that the regime’s time was limited, it’s downfall inevitable. Iranians would see better days and people power would prevail.

    Truth and goodness rise like cream, my Dad would say, as if echoing Dr Martin Luther King’s arc of the moral universe bending towards justice.

    A beautiful sentiment no doubt, but one that has become difficult to believe over time. It often appears that the universe’s arc bends towards power, not justice. Fairness seems the exception, hardly the rule. At the time, Dad’s reassurances were protective, even noble. But as the 1979 revolution and its aftermath have shown, might beats right most days of the week.

    The cruelty of the cruel and the tyranny of the hunter
    Have blown away my nest.
    O God, O Heavens, O Nature,
    Turn our dark night to dawn.

    As I explain to Australian friends: how can a people surpass a government that has (1) the military on its side, (2) a stranglehold on oil revenue, and (3) a purported mandate from God?

    Guns, money and a holy book – a hard trifecta to crack, and powerful enough to attract a sufficient minority of cronies, bottom feeders and sycophants.

    What’s the size of this ruling minority? It’s difficult to be sure, but a 2023 survey of 158,000 respondents within Iran found that only 15% supported the Islamic Republic. Small, but sufficient to produce crowds burning American and Israeli flags. I’ve always marvelled at the regime’s ability to manufacture these images; I’m told by associates that they now use AI to produce some of these.

    Women Life Freedom

    As current events unfold, I find myself deeply sceptical of all the political actors, whether Iranian, Israeli, American, Arab or Russian. Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, none of them have shown any serious interest in supporting democratic reform in Iran. “They’ve all profited from this government,” a senior community member told me. “Why would that change now?”

    For the sake of sanity, I find myself searching for credible sources of hope. The only one I settle on is faith in the Iranian people themselves. This the culture that has surrounded me since childhood, the qualities I’ve seen first hand in my countrywomen and men, whether young or old, home or abroad, Muslim, Bahai or secular: a resilience, a resourcefulness, a propensity for joy, a confidence and pride in culture, and an ability to prevail, over and again.

    It’s a new spring, roses are in bloom…
    …O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.

    These qualities are periodically staged for the world to see. Iranian people have not taken their oppression lying down, rising in (mainly) peaceful protests. There have been some 10 mass protests since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The largest of these was the Green Movement in 2009, when it was estimated that over a million citizens marched in Tehran alone. As recently as May 2025, strikes took place in over 150 cities, involving hundreds of thousands of workers.

    For the most part, these demonstrations have been met with severe repression by state authorities. One episode, from September 2022, deserves special mention. The world watched in horror as the regime cracked down on young women in Iran. This was their response to the Zan Zendegi Azadi (Woman Life Freedom) movement, where mass protests were triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Jina Amini.

    Amini was a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman who had been detained by the government’s “Morality Police” for wearing an improper hijab. Three days into her detention she died under suspicious circumstances. A leaked CT scan showed a skull fracture and brain haemorrhage. This corroborated eyewitness accounts that Amini had been severely beaten by police.

    Intentionally or not, a dress code infringement had been punished by death. Even for Iranians long accustomed to state violence, this was too much. Mass protests erupted in more than 100 cities across all of Iran’s 31 provinces.

    The protests were led by women, many of them defiantly removing their headscarves. True to its nature, the regime responded violently. In the months that followed, over 20,000 protesters were imprisoned, many later testifying to having been tortured through electric shock, flogging, waterboarding and rape.

    Human Rights Watch estimates that over 500 civilians – including 68 children and adolescents – were killed by security forces, which included the paramilitary Basijis, Revolutionary Guard Corps, police and prison guards.

    Things would get darker. That December the regime was accused of deliberately poisoning over 1,200 students at Kharazmi and Ark universities on the eve of a planned protest. Soon thereafter, there were allegations of toxic gas attacks against thousands of schoolgirls, in apparent retaliation for removing their hijabs. By 2024, the UN had accused Iran of a coordinated campaign of crimes against humanity, a claim rejected by the regime.

    As an eye surgeon, I was distressed to read a letter signed by over 100 Iranian ophthalmologists detailing eye injuries among protesters. The letter alleged that security forces had deliberately targeted people’s eyes with teargas canisters, rubber bullets and shotgun fire, resulting in traumatic injuries and irreversible blindness among protesters.

    Dew drops are falling from my cloudy eyes
    This cage, like my heart, is narrow and dark.
    O fiery sigh set alight this cage
    O fate, do not pick the flower of my life.

    There were separate reports of women’s faces and genitals being targeted by shotgun fire. The regime appeared to have interfered with medical services: protestors transported to police stations in ambulances were arrested after surgery or denied treatment. Doctors were reportedly coerced to supply false death certificates to disguise the true cause of protestors’ deaths. The British Medical Journal documented healthcare professionals being arrested, intimidated, kidnapped or killed in retaliation for treating protesters.

    If we didn’t know it already, Zan Zendegi Azadi reminded us of the risks, if not futility, of advocating for change in Iran.

    When mass civil movements like this, performed ten times over, have not worked, what alternatives are the people left with? Brutalised and impoverished by their own government, should we be surprised when a traditionally Islamic people welcome a Jewish state’s decapitation of their political leaders? Is it not tempting, even if lazy, to invoke the historical comparison of Cyrus the Great, Persian King of the Achaemenid Empire, who freed the Jewish people from Babylonian captivity?

    For the people of Iran and Israel – at the risk of naivety and romanticism – are we approaching an age of karma?

    O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.
    O heart-lost bird, shorten, shorten, shorten,
    The tale of separation.

    An uncertain scenario

    Regarding Operation Rising Lion, it is safe to say that Iranians, like any healthy community, hold a diversity of views.

    At one end of the spectrum, those who unconditionally condemn Israel’s attack should consider that the Iranian government has stockpiled over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. While not enough to build a nuclear warhead, this is far more enriched uranium than is needed for peaceful purposes.

    The Iranian government has also vowed to “wipe Israel off the map” for decades. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei lauded the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians. In other words, Iran has said to Israel “we want to annihilate you, we’ll celebrate your deaths, and we could do it with nuclear weapons if we wished to”.

    Following Iran’s recent breach of its nonproliferation obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Israel says it has acted lawfully in attacking Iran for self-defense – a claim disputed by some international law experts. Even if one does not agree with Israel’s action, it is evident that they’ve long been baited by Iran.

    On the other side of the coin, Iranians who salute Israel and the US as their saviours should take caution. The US director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declared as recently as March 2025 that there was no evidence that Iran was actively pursuing nuclear weapons, a finding corroborated by over a dozen other US intelligence elements including the CIA, the National Security Agency, and the Insitute for Defense Analyses.

    One cannot ignore the disturbing echoes of the 2003 war on Iraq, where the absence of evidence for weapons of mass destruction was intentionally misrepresented by the US and UK governments. The consequences for Iraq have been disastrous.

    As for Netanyahu and his administration, they have shown a ruthless pursuit of narrow self-interest in Gaza. The deaths and injuries inflicted by the Israeli Defence Forces on more than 50,000 Palestinian children appear to have done nothing to quell their ambitions.

    With regards to Netanyahu himself, he is facing corruption charges that could result in his domestic imprisonment and he has more recently been the subject of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, including starvation and murder.

    What can Iranians learn from this? The evidence suggests this could be a war of passion and opportunism for Israel, rather than one of legitimate self-defence. In any case, they are not waging it for the benefit of Iranians.

    Israel has a tendency to set ambitious military goals that it can’t achieve. While it promises Operation Rising Lion will soon end, its track record suggests otherwise.

    A protracted conflict would see Iran’s civilian toll rise much higher. Power outages and fuel shortages have already begun; what happens once water, medical and food scarcity set in? Since Iran doesn’t allow many international aid agencies onto its soil, who will come to the rescue of Iranians as things escalate?

    Truth’s life has come to an end
    Faith and fidelity have been replaced by the shield of war.
    Lover’s lament and beloved’s coyness,
    Are but lies and have no power.

    Even if Israel succeeds in capturing or killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, what happens next? With the Revolutionary Guard’s roots in place, there is no guarantee, and in fact a low likelihood, of true democratic reform. In recent times, foreign interference in the region has not gone well. Look at Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria: all evidence of catastrophic worsening after the removal of autocrats.

    This is a complex and uncertain scenario with little room for moral grandstanding. Disabling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic capabilities could be a net win, but the manner in which it is being done sets a dangerous precedent. For the Iranian people, Netanyahu’s ambitions could ultimately prove both heroic and villainous.

    The cup of the rich is full of pure wine,
    Our cup is filled with our heart’s blood.
    O anxious heart, cry out aloud
    And avoid those who have powerful hands.

    As I watch coverage of the war, I find myself drifting back to Shajarian’s voice and to Morq-e Sahar, probably for distraction and comfort. What is real is my faith in my fellow Iranians. Many examples comes to mind. One, during a trip to Iran, was when I stayed with family at a roadhouse. That evening, we heard music emanating from the courtyard and followed some steps into an dark basement beneath the accommodation.

    There we found a large gathering of young Iranians, two dozen or more men and women risking the law by hanging out together to sing. We joined them as strangers, seated on the floor and holding hands at times. In the dim light, the group sang and sang, a couple of them playing instruments.

    I can’t say I knew the songs or comprehended all the lyrics; I didn’t need to, to understand their meaning. You may force our people underground, you may cage them, bombard and even kill them. But you will never extinguish their eternal Persian spirit.

    O rosy-cheeked cup-bearer, give the fiery water,
    Play a joyful tune, O charming friend.
    O sad nightingale lament from your cage.
    Because of your grief my heart is
    Full of sparks, sparks, sparks.

    Hessom Razavi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime? – https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-my-heart-is-full-of-sparks-as-war-escalates-can-i-hope-for-irans-liberation-from-a-tyrannical-regime-259275

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Hessom Razavi, Clinical Associate Professor of Ophthalmology, The University of Western Australia

    We are at a dinner party in suburban Perth, a home away from home for our diaspora. As guests arrive, a Persian ballad plays in the background: Morq-e Sahar (Dawn Bird), a freedom song, a century-old protest against dictatorships and tyranny in Iran. This version was sung by the late Mohammad-Reza Shajarian, Iran’s most decorated maestro.

    Dawn bird, lament!
    Make my brand burn even more.
    With the sparks from your sigh, break
    And turn this cage upside down.

    Shajarian’s virtuoso voice frames an old question. One I’ve heard, it seems, at every Iranian gathering since my childhood. It hangs in the air like a cloud, unanswered, as guests greet each other with customary bowing and rooboosi (cheek kissing). We settle around a table laden with âjil (trail mix), fruit and wine, the smell of saffron rice and ghorme sabzi (herb stew) all around.

    For me, the scene is both familial and familiar. As is the question, which circles back around. “When will this regime change?” someone asks. The “regime” is Nezâm-e Jomhuri-ye Eslâmi-ye Irân, or the Regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    A missing voice

    Since the launch of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion against Iran last week, there has been a voice sometimes missing in the mainstream coverage – that of the Iranian people themselves.

    “Israel is not our enemy, the regime is our enemy,” chant many Iranians in Tehran and in the diaspora, a common sentiment in our community. They cite the regime that they have endured for 46 years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution: a government most of them oppose and reject, with the vast majority of Iranians preferring democratic, if not secular, reform.

    I hear some Iranians, on social media and in conversation with people who live there, commending Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu for assassinating Iran’s top military brass. These are the leaders of the Sepah, or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the most powerful branch of the Iranian Armed Forces. Together with the mullahs – Iran’s Shia Muslim clerical class – they form the backbone of Iran’s government and economy.

    So far, Israel has assassinated Hossein Salami, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, as well as Mohammad Kazemi, its intelligence chief, plus senior nuclear scientists and dozens of other officers. Israel has also indicated an interest in killing Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

    “Damet garm, aghayeh Netanyahu,” some Iranians are saying, literally “may your breath be warm”, or “good job, Netanyahu”. Amid the terror and confusion – not to mention the civilian deaths, so far, of over 200 Iranians – there is a rare and distinct sense of hope.

    State of corruption

    In view of Israel’s ongoing campaign in Gaza, this support for Israel may come as a surprise to many Australians, and Western liberals in general. Certainly, reconciling Israel’s role in Gaza versus Iran is jarring.

    But for now, I hear some Iranians saying “maybe our regime can finally be toppled”. Maybe Iran can reclaim its place in the international community, as the proud and prosperous nation it should be? As this crisis escalates, as buildings collapse and distressed Tehranis, including my family, flee the capital for the safety of the countryside, there is a heady sense of possibility.

    Wing-tied nightingale come out of the corner of your cage, and
    Sing the song of freedom for human kind.
    With your fiery breath ignite,
    The breath of this peopled land …

    I understand the allure of this hope; to an extent, I feel it myself. My family lives in Australia, not Iran, precisely because of the Iranian regime’s tyranny. We fled Iran in 1983 due to political persecution, after most of the adults in our extended family were arbitrarily arrested and imprisoned by the government.

    Two of my imprisoned uncles and one of my aunties were executed. Another uncle was beaten to death in custody. My grandfather, a noble old man, was imprisoned and tortured. We were far from unique; during the 1980s, the government imprisoned tens of thousands of its own people, executing many thousands of them.

    Little has changed since then. The Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guards have shown a pervasive disregard for human rights. They execute more of their own people than any country except China. They are a world leader in the use of torture; they deny freedoms of expression and press, association and assembly; they discriminate against women, girls, religious minorities, LGBTI people, and refugees. Tightly controlled elections ensure the success of desired candidates.

    Freedom House, a nonprofit organisation based in the US, gives Iran a score of 11 out of 100 for its provision of political rights and civil liberties. For many Iranians, it felt overdue when, in 2019, the US listed the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation, a decision followed by other countries, including Canada and Sweden. In 2023, the European parliament overwhelmingly voted for a resolution to do the same, with calls to expedite this motion in early 2025.

    In parallel to their human rights abuses, the Revolutionary Guard has hobbled the Iranian economy. Their corruption, financial incompetence and operation of black markets have compounded the effects of international sanctions. Consequently, the Iranian rial hit a historic low this year. It is now worth around one twentieth of its value in 2015.

    People’s life savings have dwindled in value, rendering older Iranians financially vulnerable. Inflation was 38.7% in May of this year, down from highs of over 40%. My family in Iran experience this as grocery and commodity prices that may rise in a single day, higher in the afternoon than in the morning. Some cities have experienced water cuts and power outages.

    While it hasn’t yet qualified as a failed state, Iran has been failing.

    All of this has occurred despite the country being richly endowed with the second- and third-highest natural gas and oil reserves in the world, respectively. Iran has a GDP of over $US404 billion – 36th in the world. Its youth are highly educated and literate, with more women enrolled in universities than men.

    Rather than accelerating the nation’s domestic development, however, the Iranian government has by its own admission spent tens of billions of dollars to expand its empire by funding terrorist proxies: Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the recently deposed Assad regime in Syria, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

    The Iranian people have suffered financially, but the Revolutionary Guards have not. They are estimated to control at least 10%, and up to 50%, of the country’s total economy, including up to an estimated 50% share of Iran’s US$50 billion per year oil profits. They have achieved this by commandeering an industrial empire, made up of hundreds of commercial companies, trusts, subsidiaries and nominally charitable foundations.

    A further US$2 billion or more per year comes from the government’s military budget, with periodic boosts during crises. Add to this the alleged shadowy operation of black markets, extortion, and the smuggling of alcohol, narcotics and weapons, accounting for an estimated US$12 billion per year in revenue.

    Contemplating this corruption, I am reminded of an anecdote from a personal associate who worked for a firm affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard. They shared stories of officers, the nation’s purported “guardians of Islam”, hosting parties where alcohol, firearms and sex workers were readily available.

    My associate recounted several instances of fraud and theft, one of them monumental in scale. In this “tea smuggling scandal”, the Revolutionary Guard defrauded billions of dollars from a government fund by illicitly exchanging some funds on the open market, falsely labelling cheap tea to on-sell as superior quality tea, and falsely labelling domestically produced machinery as “Made in Germany”.

    “They’re untouchable, and they know it”, my associate said. Another Iranian community member described them to me as “Iran’s super-mafia”.

    Speaking to family in Iran, they say many of the middle tier Revolutionary Guards live in their own shahrak-ha (towns) with dedicated markets, schools and resorts. Many of the Guards’ elite, meanwhile, live in mansions in the exclusive parts of north Tehran, with children who pursue conspicuously American “lifestyles of the rich and famous”. For an organisation that leads the chants of “marg bar America!” (death to America), one wonders if they see the irony in this.

    Turn our dark night to dawn

    I find myself sickened by the events of this war, and the harm it is causing. Struck with anxiety, some of our family members in Tehran haven’t slept for days. “The Israeli bombardments are non-stop, and so loud,” one family member told me.

    This week our extended family has struggled frantically to leave Tehran. Petrol is hard to come by and, in a mass exodus, the bumper-to-bumper traffic stands still for hours. I know some of the neighbourhoods being bombed; we lived in one of them in my childhood.

    “For every military commander that’s assassinated, a whole building might collapse, and with a dozen civilians trapped or killed,” another person told me, intimating that the civilian toll is higher than official counts.

    I am also worried about the raised hopes of Iranians. I have seen this before, when a spark – sometimes an inspirational act of courage from an ordinary citizen – leads to public surges in solidarity. At these moments during my childhood, my parents would tell me that the regime’s time was limited, it’s downfall inevitable. Iranians would see better days and people power would prevail.

    Truth and goodness rise like cream, my Dad would say, as if echoing Dr Martin Luther King’s arc of the moral universe bending towards justice.

    A beautiful sentiment no doubt, but one that has become difficult to believe over time. It often appears that the universe’s arc bends towards power, not justice. Fairness seems the exception, hardly the rule. At the time, Dad’s reassurances were protective, even noble. But as the 1979 revolution and its aftermath have shown, might beats right most days of the week.

    The cruelty of the cruel and the tyranny of the hunter
    Have blown away my nest.
    O God, O Heavens, O Nature,
    Turn our dark night to dawn.

    As I explain to Australian friends: how can a people surpass a government that has (1) the military on its side, (2) a stranglehold on oil revenue, and (3) a purported mandate from God?

    Guns, money and a holy book – a hard trifecta to crack, and powerful enough to attract a sufficient minority of cronies, bottom feeders and sycophants.

    What’s the size of this ruling minority? It’s difficult to be sure, but a 2023 survey of 158,000 respondents within Iran found that only 15% supported the Islamic Republic. Small, but sufficient to produce crowds burning American and Israeli flags. I’ve always marvelled at the regime’s ability to manufacture these images; I’m told by associates that they now use AI to produce some of these.

    Women Life Freedom

    As current events unfold, I find myself deeply sceptical of all the political actors, whether Iranian, Israeli, American, Arab or Russian. Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, none of them have shown any serious interest in supporting democratic reform in Iran. “They’ve all profited from this government,” a senior community member told me. “Why would that change now?”

    For the sake of sanity, I find myself searching for credible sources of hope. The only one I settle on is faith in the Iranian people themselves. This the culture that has surrounded me since childhood, the qualities I’ve seen first hand in my countrywomen and men, whether young or old, home or abroad, Muslim, Bahai or secular: a resilience, a resourcefulness, a propensity for joy, a confidence and pride in culture, and an ability to prevail, over and again.

    It’s a new spring, roses are in bloom…
    …O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.

    These qualities are periodically staged for the world to see. Iranian people have not taken their oppression lying down, rising in (mainly) peaceful protests. There have been some 10 mass protests since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The largest of these was the Green Movement in 2009, when it was estimated that over a million citizens marched in Tehran alone. As recently as May 2025, strikes took place in over 150 cities, involving hundreds of thousands of workers.

    For the most part, these demonstrations have been met with severe repression by state authorities. One episode, from September 2022, deserves special mention. The world watched in horror as the regime cracked down on young women in Iran. This was their response to the Zan Zendegi Azadi (Woman Life Freedom) movement, where mass protests were triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Jina Amini.

    Amini was a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman who had been detained by the government’s “Morality Police” for wearing an improper hijab. Three days into her detention she died under suspicious circumstances. A leaked CT scan showed a skull fracture and brain haemorrhage. This corroborated eyewitness accounts that Amini had been severely beaten by police.

    Intentionally or not, a dress code infringement had been punished by death. Even for Iranians long accustomed to state violence, this was too much. Mass protests erupted in more than 100 cities across all of Iran’s 31 provinces.

    The protests were led by women, many of them defiantly removing their headscarves. True to its nature, the regime responded violently. In the months that followed, over 20,000 protesters were imprisoned, many later testifying to having been tortured through electric shock, flogging, waterboarding and rape.

    Human Rights Watch estimates that over 500 civilians – including 68 children and adolescents – were killed by security forces, which included the paramilitary Basijis, Revolutionary Guard Corps, police and prison guards.

    Things would get darker. That December the regime was accused of deliberately poisoning over 1,200 students at Kharazmi and Ark universities on the eve of a planned protest. Soon thereafter, there were allegations of toxic gas attacks against thousands of schoolgirls, in apparent retaliation for removing their hijabs. By 2024, the UN had accused Iran of a coordinated campaign of crimes against humanity, a claim rejected by the regime.

    As an eye surgeon, I was distressed to read a letter signed by over 100 Iranian ophthalmologists detailing eye injuries among protesters. The letter alleged that security forces had deliberately targeted people’s eyes with teargas canisters, rubber bullets and shotgun fire, resulting in traumatic injuries and irreversible blindness among protesters.

    Dew drops are falling from my cloudy eyes
    This cage, like my heart, is narrow and dark.
    O fiery sigh set alight this cage
    O fate, do not pick the flower of my life.

    There were separate reports of women’s faces and genitals being targeted by shotgun fire. The regime appeared to have interfered with medical services: protestors transported to police stations in ambulances were arrested after surgery or denied treatment. Doctors were reportedly coerced to supply false death certificates to disguise the true cause of protestors’ deaths. The British Medical Journal documented healthcare professionals being arrested, intimidated, kidnapped or killed in retaliation for treating protesters.

    If we didn’t know it already, Zan Zendegi Azadi reminded us of the risks, if not futility, of advocating for change in Iran.

    When mass civil movements like this, performed ten times over, have not worked, what alternatives are the people left with? Brutalised and impoverished by their own government, should we be surprised when a traditionally Islamic people welcome a Jewish state’s decapitation of their political leaders? Is it not tempting, even if lazy, to invoke the historical comparison of Cyrus the Great, Persian King of the Achaemenid Empire, who freed the Jewish people from Babylonian captivity?

    For the people of Iran and Israel – at the risk of naivety and romanticism – are we approaching an age of karma?

    O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.
    O heart-lost bird, shorten, shorten, shorten,
    The tale of separation.

    An uncertain scenario

    Regarding Operation Rising Lion, it is safe to say that Iranians, like any healthy community, hold a diversity of views.

    At one end of the spectrum, those who unconditionally condemn Israel’s attack should consider that the Iranian government has stockpiled over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. While not enough to build a nuclear warhead, this is far more enriched uranium than is needed for peaceful purposes.

    The Iranian government has also vowed to “wipe Israel off the map” for decades. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei lauded the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians. In other words, Iran has said to Israel “we want to annihilate you, we’ll celebrate your deaths, and we could do it with nuclear weapons if we wished to”.

    Following Iran’s recent breach of its nonproliferation obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Israel says it has acted lawfully in attacking Iran for self-defense – a claim disputed by some international law experts. Even if one does not agree with Israel’s action, it is evident that they’ve long been baited by Iran.

    On the other side of the coin, Iranians who salute Israel and the US as their saviours should take caution. The US director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declared as recently as March 2025 that there was no evidence that Iran was actively pursuing nuclear weapons, a finding corroborated by over a dozen other US intelligence elements including the CIA, the National Security Agency, and the Insitute for Defense Analyses.

    One cannot ignore the disturbing echoes of the 2003 war on Iraq, where the absence of evidence for weapons of mass destruction was intentionally misrepresented by the US and UK governments. The consequences for Iraq have been disastrous.

    As for Netanyahu and his administration, they have shown a ruthless pursuit of narrow self-interest in Gaza. The deaths and injuries inflicted by the Israeli Defence Forces on more than 50,000 Palestinian children appear to have done nothing to quell their ambitions.

    With regards to Netanyahu himself, he is facing corruption charges that could result in his domestic imprisonment and he has more recently been the subject of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, including starvation and murder.

    What can Iranians learn from this? The evidence suggests this could be a war of passion and opportunism for Israel, rather than one of legitimate self-defence. In any case, they are not waging it for the benefit of Iranians.

    Israel has a tendency to set ambitious military goals that it can’t achieve. While it promises Operation Rising Lion will soon end, its track record suggests otherwise.

    A protracted conflict would see Iran’s civilian toll rise much higher. Power outages and fuel shortages have already begun; what happens once water, medical and food scarcity set in? Since Iran doesn’t allow many international aid agencies onto its soil, who will come to the rescue of Iranians as things escalate?

    Truth’s life has come to an end
    Faith and fidelity have been replaced by the shield of war.
    Lover’s lament and beloved’s coyness,
    Are but lies and have no power.

    Even if Israel succeeds in capturing or killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, what happens next? With the Revolutionary Guard’s roots in place, there is no guarantee, and in fact a low likelihood, of true democratic reform. In recent times, foreign interference in the region has not gone well. Look at Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria: all evidence of catastrophic worsening after the removal of autocrats.

    This is a complex and uncertain scenario with little room for moral grandstanding. Disabling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic capabilities could be a net win, but the manner in which it is being done sets a dangerous precedent. For the Iranian people, Netanyahu’s ambitions could ultimately prove both heroic and villainous.

    The cup of the rich is full of pure wine,
    Our cup is filled with our heart’s blood.
    O anxious heart, cry out aloud
    And avoid those who have powerful hands.

    As I watch coverage of the war, I find myself drifting back to Shajarian’s voice and to Morq-e Sahar, probably for distraction and comfort. What is real is my faith in my fellow Iranians. Many examples comes to mind. One, during a trip to Iran, was when I stayed with family at a roadhouse. That evening, we heard music emanating from the courtyard and followed some steps into an dark basement beneath the accommodation.

    There we found a large gathering of young Iranians, two dozen or more men and women risking the law by hanging out together to sing. We joined them as strangers, seated on the floor and holding hands at times. In the dim light, the group sang and sang, a couple of them playing instruments.

    I can’t say I knew the songs or comprehended all the lyrics; I didn’t need to, to understand their meaning. You may force our people underground, you may cage them, bombard and even kill them. But you will never extinguish their eternal Persian spirit.

    O rosy-cheeked cup-bearer, give the fiery water,
    Play a joyful tune, O charming friend.
    O sad nightingale lament from your cage.
    Because of your grief my heart is
    Full of sparks, sparks, sparks.

    Hessom Razavi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime? – https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-my-heart-is-full-of-sparks-as-war-escalates-can-i-hope-for-irans-liberation-from-a-tyrannical-regime-259275

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University

    Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal.

    The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It’s expected to start operating in 2026.

    Human rights organisations, international lawyers and some (mostly European) states have long been calling for the establishment of such a tribunal. Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights lawyer, called the establishment of the tribunal:

    an important breakthrough for the international justice community and especially for the millions of Ukrainians who have been harmed by the Russian aggression.

    However, important questions remain about if it could truly hold senior Russian officials accountable.

    So, how will this new special tribunal work, and will it be effective – or necessary?

    How does the special tribunal fill the gaps left by the ICC and ICJ?

    This tribunal is separate to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

    The ICC can prosecute individuals charged with genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Russian war on Ukraine. So far, it has issued arrest warrants against four Russian senior officials, including President Vladimir Putin.

    Because Russia is not a member state to the court, the court can’t exercise legal authority over what’s known in international law as a crime of aggression (when leaders of a state launch or plan a war). For the ICC to be able to exercise this jurisdiction, the aggressor state also must be a member state of the court.

    The ICJ is a different court altogether. It primarily deals with and adjudicates disputes between states, not limited to war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. It can’t hold individuals accountable, and can only exercise jurisdiction over a dispute if both states to a dispute agree.

    While the ICC seeks to establish individual criminal responsibility, the ICJ may establish state responsibility for a violation of international law.

    Currently, there are also two cases between Ukraine and Russia before the ICJ.

    Neither deals with the question of the legality of Russia’s use of force in its invasion in February 2022. Both Ukraine and Russia would need to consent to bring this issue before the court.

    So, is a new tribunal necessary?

    Yes, because the crime of aggression currently can’t be addressed by any other international court or tribunal.

    Given the limitations of what the ICJ and ICC can do, a dedicated tribunal seems the obvious solution to hold those responsible for the illegal use of force against Ukraine accountable.

    And it’s not uncommon for specialised tribunals with limited jurisdiction over a specific situation to be created.

    Other historical examples include the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia and the Special Court for Sierra Leone.

    Given the ICC’s lack of jurisdiction over the crime of aggression, the new special tribunal would complement the court’s existing investigations into war crimes and crimes against humanity.

    Who is running the new tribunal and how will it work?

    The exact content and specifics of this new tribunal will remain unknown until the draft statute of the tribunal is published. That’s a document that outlines details including the tribunal’s jurisdiction, the applicable definition of aggression and how the tribunal will function.

    At this stage, the Council of Europe has confirmed the tribunal will work within its legal framework and principles. It will be funded by an international coalition of supportive states.

    A management committee of members and associate members of the tribunal will be responsible for the election of the tribunal’s judges and prosecutors. The management committee is made up of the Council of Europe’s council of ministers and Ukraine.

    Diplomatic discussions are still ongoing at this point, but the legal process for establishing the special tribunal can begin now.

    Will this special tribunal be more effective?

    Political, legal and practical challenges for the special tribunal remain. It’s unclear if the most senior Russian state officials can and will be able to be brought to trial for the crime of aggression.

    Nothing, so far, suggests the statute of the tribunal will contain an exception to state immunity enjoyed by heads of state, heads of governments and foreign ministers while in power.

    That means these office holders can only be prosecuted if they are no longer in power or the Russian government expressly waives their immunity.

    It’s also unclear whether states will be willing to arrest those sought by the special tribunal.

    The ICC has long faced this challenge trying to get states to act on its arrest warrants.

    Hungary, for instance, did not arrest Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when he visited in April, despite an ICC arrest warrant for alleged crimes against humanity in connection with the war in Gaza.

    For the special tribunal to be effective, according to Oleksandra Matviichuk, it:

    must not become a remote and hollow entity that does not engage with the Ukrainian victims.

    Overall, much remains unclear. Will this new special tribunal be able to hold the likes of Putin accountable for the crime of aggression? Or will it become another empty promise?

    Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective? – https://theconversation.com/a-new-special-tribunal-will-investigate-russias-aggression-against-ukraine-will-it-be-effective-257823

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI China: China and neighboring countries expand cross-border railways for greater cooperation

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    China and neighboring countries expand cross-border railways for greater cooperation

    BEIJING, June 19 — The railway linking Ganqmod Port in north China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Mongolia’s Gashuun Sukhait started construction in mid-June, marking the second cross-border railway between the two countries since the first one opened nearly 70 years ago.

    As the global economy becomes increasingly integrated and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continues to advance, cross-border railway construction between China and its neighboring countries is ushering in new development opportunities.

    Recently, multiple cross-border railway projects, including the Ganqmod-Gashuun Sukhait Railway, have achieved significant milestones. China is steadily building a modern railway network that connects it with neighboring countries such as Mongolia, Russia, Vietnam and Laos, boosting regional links, economic cooperation and cultural exchanges.

    STRENGTHENING REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY

    Planned for completion in 2027, the Chinese section of the Ganqmod-Gashuun Sukhait railway project is invested and being constructed by China Energy Investment Corporation Co., Ltd. (CHN Energy).

    “The new railway is projected to transport approximately 30 million tonnes of cargo annually, significantly enhancing connectivity between the two countries and enabling more efficient transportation of mineral and energy resources,” said Wang Shangjun, chairman of the Ganqmod Railway Investment Co., Ltd. under CHN Energy.

    Beyond the China-Mongolia railway breakthrough, 2025 has witnessed accelerated progress on multiple rail corridors. The mainline construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project entered the substantive construction phase in late April.

    Earlier in the year, Vietnam ratified a project to extend rail connectivity from Vietnam’s Haiphong to the China-Vietnam border. Meanwhile, Thailand approved Phase II of the China-Thailand high-speed rail project, with the tendering process expected to be completed within the year.

    “These cross-border railways serve as vital corridors connecting China northward to Mongolia, westward to Central and West Asia, and southward to Southeast Asia,” said Fan Lijun, director of the BRI research institute at the Inner Mongolia Academy of Social Sciences.

    “Their construction will enhance infrastructure connectivity and economic exchanges among participating countries, while upgrading cross-border logistics, industrial parks, and border trade services. This holds profound significance for advancing regional cooperation and development,” Fan added.

    This vision has been vividly demonstrated across multiple cross-border railway projects. The China-Laos Railway, a model project under the BRI, has transported more than 52.7 million passengers since its launch over three years ago, including over 510,000 cross-border travelers, and carried over 59.4 million tonnes of cargo, with cross-border shipments exceeding 13.7 million tonnes.

    The railway authorities of China and Laos have been actively exploring new models for international transportation. By linking the China-Laos Railway with the China-Europe Railway Express network, they have reduced the rail transit time from Laos, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries to Europe to just 15 days.

    This cross-border freight service now covers the 31 Chinese provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, as well as 19 countries and regions including Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore, with transported goods expanding to over 3,000 categories.

    CATALYST FOR SHARED PROSPERITY

    Yu Chen, a staff member with the Erenhot railway station, has witnessed the remarkable changes in his hometown Erenhot in Inner Mongolia, the Chinese terminus of the first cross-border railway between China and Mongolia.

    “It’s said that in its early years, Erenhot had just one main street, with only three major buildings in the whole area — the train station, the customs office, and the border inspection facility,” Yu said.

    Now, leveraging the cross-border railway, Erenhot has emerged as a pivotal hub city along the BRI, with over 200 logistics companies, a crisscross network of urban streets, and towering high-rises.

    The China-Mongolia railway has not only boosted Erenhot’s development but also driven industrial transformation and upgrading in the hinterland areas of the border port. In a national logistics hub park spanning Erenhot and Ulanqab, another border city in Inner Mongolia, export-oriented processing industries for specialty agricultural products including sunflower seeds, corn, fruits and vegetables, as well as import-processing industries for flaxseed, oats and meat products, are experiencing robust growth.

    “By transforming our geographical advantages into competitiveness in logistics, we have laid a solid foundation for the development of specialty agricultural product industries,” said Zhao Dongyang, director of the economic development bureau under the management committee of the logistics hub park.

    A growing number of cross-border railways are thriving as economic arteries, powering development in cities along their routes. A freight train carrying Russian rapeseed recently arrived at the border residents’ mutual trade zone of Manzhouli, a border city in Inner Mongolia profoundly shaped by the China-Russia railway.

    Upon the cargo’s arrival, Manzhouli Xinfeng Grain and Oil Industry Co., Ltd. immediately initiated the production process of rapeseed oil. “Russian rapeseed boasts unique advantages such as low acid value and high smoke point, which enable the extraction of premium-quality rapeseed oil that is highly favored in China’s edible oil market,” said Yang Zhihong, deputy general manager of the company.

    As China’s largest land port, Manzhouli is evolving from its traditional role as a “transit station” into a regional industrial hub by promoting local processing of grain, oil and timber.

    “By sourcing raw materials through the border residents’ mutual trade channel, we have achieved significant cost reductions — saving approximately 500 yuan (about 69.71 U.S. dollars) per tonne on average, with cumulative savings exceeding 8 million yuan to date,” Yang said.

    According to Xie Ruijie, deputy director of the management committee of the Manzhouli China-Russia mutual trade zone, border trade in Manzhouli had surpassed 100 million yuan as of April 20 this year, with more than 3,600 border residents participating, bringing in over 1 million yuan in income for locals and contributing nearly 2 million yuan in tax revenue to the city.

    DEEPENING PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE TIES

    During the May Day holiday last year, despite the swirling snowflakes on the platform of Ulaanbaatar, capital of Mongolia, Kang Zhenning, chief conductor of the China-Mongolia international passenger train carefully assisted Mongolian passengers returning home after medical treatment in Inner Mongolia’s capital Hohhot.

    To better serve Mongolian passengers, Kang mastered the Mongolian language through studying books and online videos and learning from Mongolian colleagues. He also led his crew in establishing a Mongolian-Chinese bilingual service station onboard, which offers translation services for international travelers.

    “Thanks to the crew’s consistent and attentive service, this train has become like an ‘ambulance’ for patients like me,” said Mongolian passenger Urtu, who frequently takes this train to Hohhot for medical treatment.

    While the China-Mongolia Railway serves as a lifeline for cross-border medical care, many railway services in southern China have become a vibrant corridor for cultural tourism, bringing peoples from China and its neighboring countries closer.

    The waiting hall of Hekou North Railway Station, which is close to the China-Vietnam border, was bustling on an April afternoon. Vietnamese tour guide Hoang Tien waited there with a group of 11 Vietnamese tourists.

    “The high-speed trains here are very punctual,” Hoang told his group, “With the streamlined boarding process, you only need to arrive at the station just 40 minutes before departure.”

    As a frequent visitor to the railway station, Hoang leads tour groups here every few days. He marveled at how the China-Vietnam railway connects Yunnan’s picturesque landscapes, and had observed the growing number of Vietnamese tourists eager to explore China’s natural wonders and cultural heritage.

    In 2024, the number of Vietnamese tour groups arriving at and departing from Hekou Port increased by 40.7 percent from 2023. In the first three months of this year, more than 10,000 group tourists traveled from Hekou North Railway Station to other Chinese destinations, a surge of more than 180 percent over the same period last year.

    MIL OSI China News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI China: Xi says ceasefire an urgent priority in Middle East during phone talks with Putin

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Xi says ceasefire an urgent priority in Middle East during phone talks with Putin

    Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Thursday that ceasefire must be an urgent priority in the Middle East.

    Xi made the remarks during his phone talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. During the call, the two leaders exchanged views regarding the situation in the Middle East.

    Xi outlined China’s principles and position, saying that the current Middle East situation is highly perilous, further proving that the world is entering a new period of turbulence and transformation.

    If the conflict continues to escalate, not only will the parties directly involved suffer greater losses, but countries across the region will also be severely affected, Xi said.

    He said the use of force is not a right way to resolve international disputes and only serves to deepen hatred and confrontation.

    The parties involved in the conflict, especially Israel, should halt military operations as soon as possible to prevent a spiral of escalation and to firmly avoid the spread of war beyond the region, Xi said.

    Xi also said that ensuring civilian safety must be a top priority, adding that the red line of protecting civilians in armed conflicts must not be crossed at any time, and indiscriminate use of force is unacceptable.

    He called on the parties to the conflict to strictly adhere to international law, avoid harming innocent civilians, and facilitate the safe evacuation of third-country nationals.

    Dialogue and negotiation are the fundamental solutions, Xi said, adding that communication and dialogue are the right ways to achieve lasting peace.

    Xi urged the relevant parties to firmly support a political solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, and push the issue back to the track of political solution through dialogue and negotiation.

    The international community’s peacemaking efforts are indispensable, Xi said, adding that without stability in the Middle East, there can hardly be peace in the world.

    The conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a sudden escalation of tensions in the Middle East and severely impacted global security, Xi noted.

    The international community, especially major countries that have a special influence on parties to the conflict, should make efforts to cool down the situation, not the opposite, he said, calling on the UN Security Council to play a bigger role in this regard.

    Xi stressed that China stands ready to continue enhancing communication and coordination with all parties, pool their efforts, uphold justice, and play a constructive role in restoring peace in the Middle East.

    Putin, for his part, outlined Russia’s views on the current situation in the Middle East, saying that Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is extremely dangerous.

    The escalation of the conflict is in no one’s interests, said the Russian president, noting that the Iranian nuclear issue should be resolved through dialogue and negotiation.

    He also said that both sides of the conflict should ensure the safety of citizens of the third countries, adding that as the current situation is evolving rapidly, Russia stands ready to maintain close communication with China, and make joint active efforts to cool down the situation, so as to safeguard regional peace and stability.

    The two heads of state spoke highly of the political mutual trust and high-level strategic coordination between China and Russia, and agreed to maintain close high-level exchanges, advance cooperation in various fields, and deepen the development of the China-Russia comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination.

    MIL OSI China News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: Eugene Doyle: How centrifugal forces have been unleashed in Iran

    COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle

    The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran is literally and figuratively designed to unleash centrifugal forces in the Islamic Republic.

    Two nuclear powers are currently involved in the bombing of the nuclear facilities of a third state. One of them, the US has — for the moment — limited itself to handling mid-air refuelling, bombs and an array of intelligence.

    If successful they will destroy or, more likely, destabilise the uranium enrichment centrifuges at Natanz and possibly the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, causing them to vibrate and spin uncontrollably, generating centrifugal forces that could rupture containment systems.

    Spinning at more than 50,000 rpm it wouldn’t take much of a shockwave from a blast or some other act of sabotage to do this.

    There may be about half a tonne of enriched uranium and several tonnes of lower-grade material underground.

    If a cascade of bunker-busting bombs like the US GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators got through, the heat generated would be in the hundreds, even thousands, of degrees Celsius. This would destroy the centrifuges, converting the uranium hexafluoride gas into a toxic aerosol, leading to serious radiological contamination over a wide area.

    The head of the IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, warned repeatedly of the dangers over the past few days. How many people would be killed, contaminated or forced to evacuate should not have to be calculated — it should be avoided at all cost.

    Divided opinions
    Some people think this attack is a very good idea; some think this is an act of madness by two rogue states.

    On June 18, Israeli media were reporting that the US had rushed an aerial armada loaded with bunker busters to Israel while the US continued its sham denials of involvement in the war.

    Analysts Professor Jeffrey Sachs and Sybil Fares warned this week of “Israel bringing the world to the brink of nuclear Armageddon in pursuit of its illegal and extremist aims”.  They point out that for some decades now Netanyahu has warned that Iran is weeks or even days away from having the bomb, begging successive presidents for permission to wage Judeo-Christian jihad.

    In Donald Trump — the MAGA Peace Candidate — he finally got his green light.

    The centrifugal forces destabilising the Iranian state
    The other — and possibly more significant — centrifugal force that has been unleashed is a hybrid attack on the Iranian state itself.  The Americans, Israelis and their European allies hope to trigger regime change.

    There are many Iranians inside and outside the country who would welcome such a development.  Other Iranians suggest they should be careful of what they wish for, pointing to the human misery that follows, as night follows day, wherever post 9/11 America’s project to bring “democracy, goodness and niceness” leads.  If you can’t quickly think of half a dozen examples, this must be your first visit to Planet Earth.

    Iranian news presenter Sahar Emami during the Israeli attack on state television which killed three media workers . . . Killing journalists is both an Israeli speciality and a war crime. Image: AJ screenshot APR

    Is regime change in Iran possible?
    So, are the Americans and Israelis on to something or not? This week prominent anti-regime writer Sohrab Ahmari added a caveat to his long-standing call for an end to the regime.  Ahmari, an Iranian, who is the US editor of the geopolitical analysis platform UnHerd said:  “The potential nightmare scenarios are as numerous as they are appalling: regime collapse that leads not to the restoration of the Pahlavi dynasty and the ascent to the Peacock Throne of its chubby dauphin, Reza, but warlordism and ethno-sectarian warfare that drives millions of refugees into Europe.

    “Or a Chinese intervention in favour of a crucial energy partner and anchor of the new Eurasian bloc led by Beijing . . .  A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on the Persian Gulf monarchies.”

    Despite these risks, there are indeed Iranians who are cheering for Uncle Bibi (Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu).  Some have little sympathy for the Palestinians because their government poured millions into supporting Hamas and Hezbollah — money that could have eased hardship inside Iran, caused, it must be added, by both the US-imposed sanctions and the regime’s own mismanagement, some say corruption.

    As I pointed out in an article The West’s War on Iran shortly after the Israelis launched the war: the regime appears to have a core support base of around 20 percent.  This was true in 2018 when I last visited Iran and was still the case in the most recent polling I could find.

    I quoted an Iranian contact who shortly after the attack told me they had scanned reactions inside Iran and found people were upset, angry and overwhelmingly supportive of the government at this critical moment.  Like many, I suggested Iranians would — as typically happens when countries are attacked — rally round the flag.  Shortly after the article was published this statement was challenged by other Iranians who dispute that there will be any “rallying to the flag” — as that is the flag of the Islamic Republic and a great many Iranians are sick to the back teeth of it.

    Some others demur:

    “The killing of at least 224 Iranians has once again significantly damaged Israel’s claim that it avoids targeting civilians,” Dr Shirin Saeidi, author of Women and the Islamic Republic, an associate professor of political science at the University of Arkansas, told The New Arab on June 16.  “Israel’s illegal attack on the Iranian people will definitely not result in a popular uprising against the Iranian state. On the contrary, Iranians are coming together behind the Islamic Republic.”

    To be honest, I can’t discern who is correct. In the last few of days I have also had contact with people inside Iran (all these contacts must, for obvious reasons, be anonymous).  One of them welcomed the attack on the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps).  I also got this message relayed to me from someone else in Iran as a response to my article:

    “Some Iranians are pro-regime and have condemned Israeli attacks and want the government to respond strongly. Some Iranians are pro-Israel and happy that Israel has attacked and killed some of their murderers and want regime change, [but the] majority of Iranians dislike both sides.

    They dislike the regime in Iran, and they are patriotic so they don’t want a foreign country like Israel invading them and killing people. They feel hopeless and defenceless as they know both sides have failed or will fail them.”

    Calculating the incalculable: regime survival or collapse?
    Only a little over half of Iran is Persian. Minorities include Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Arabs, Balochis, Turkmen, Armenians and one of the region’s few post-Nakba Jewish congregations outside of Israel today.

    Mossad, MI6 and various branches of the US state have poured billions into opposition groups, including various monarchist factions, but from a distance they appear fragmented. The Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) armed opposition group has been an irritant but so far not a major disruptor.

    The most effective terrorist attacks inside Iran have been launched by Israel, the US and the British — including the assassination of a string of Iranian peace negotiators, the leader of the political wing of Hamas, nuclear scientists and their families, and various regime figures.

    How numerous the active strands of anti-regime elements are is hard to estimate. Equally hard to calculate is how many will move into open confrontation with the regime. Conversely, how unified, durable — or brittle — is the regime? How cohesive is the leadership of the IRGC and the Basij militias? Will they work effectively together in the trying times ahead? In particular, how successful has the CIA, MI6 and Mossad been at penetrating their structures and buying generals?

    Both Iran’s nuclear programme and its government — in fact, the whole edifice and foundation of the Islamic Republic — is at the beginning of the greatest stress test of its existence.  If the centrifugal forces prove too great, I can’t help but think of the words of William Butler Yeats:

    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere   

    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;

    The best lack all conviction, while the worst   

    Are full of passionate intensity.

    Peace and prosperity to all the people of Iran.  And let’s never forget the people of Palestine as they endure genocide.

    Eugene Doyle is a writer based in Wellington. He has written extensively on the Middle East, as well as peace and security issues in the Asia Pacific region. He contributes to Asia Pacific Report and Café Pacific, and hosts the public policy platform solidarity.co.nz

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: Technology to enforce teen social media ban is ‘effective’, trial says. But this is at odds with other evidence

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University

    MAYA LAB/Shutterstock

    Technologies to enforce the Australian government’s social media ban for under 16s are “private, robust and effective”. That’s according to the preliminary findings of a federal government-commissioned trial that has nearly finished testing them.

    The findings, released today, may give the government greater confidence to forge ahead with the ban, despite a suite of expert criticism. They might also alleviate some of the concerns of the Australian population about privacy and security implications of the ban, which is due to begin in December.

    For example, a report based on a survey of nearly 4,000 people and released by the government earlier this week found nine out of ten people support the idea of a ban. But it also found a large number of people were “very concerned” about how the ban would be implemented. Nearly 80% of respondents had privacy and security concerns, while roughly half had concerns about age assurance accuracy and government oversight.

    The trial’s preliminary findings paint a rosy picture of the potential for available technologies to check people’s ages. However, they contain very little detail about specific technologies, and appear to be at odds with what we know about age-assurance technology from other sources.

    From facial recognition to hand movement recognition

    The social media ban for under 16s was legislated in December 2024. A last-minute amendment to the law requires technology companies to provide “alternative age assurance methods” for account holders to confirm their age, rather than relying only on government-issued ID.

    The Australian government commissioned an independent trial to evaluate the “effectiveness, maturity, and readiness for use” of these alternative methods.

    The trial is being led by the Age Check Certification Scheme – a company based in the United Kingdom that specialises in testing and certifying identity verification systems. It includes 53 vendors that offer a range of age assurance technologies to guess people’s ages, using techniques such as facial recognition and hand-movement recognition.

    According to the preliminary findings of the trial, “age assurance can be done in Australia”.

    The trial’s project director, Tony Allen, said “there are no significant technological barriers” to assuring people’s ages online. He added the solutions are “technically feasible, can be integrated flexibly into existing services and can support the safety and rights of children online”.

    However, these claims are hard to square with other evidence.

    High error rates

    Yesterday the ABC reported the trial found face-scanning technologies “repeatedly misidentified” children as young as 15 as being in their 20s and 30s. These tools could only guess children’s ages “within an 18-month range in 85 percent of cases”. This means a 14-year-old child might gain access to a social media account, while a 17-year-old might be blocked.

    This is in line with results of global trials of face-scanning technologies conducted for more than a decade.

    An ongoing series of studies of age estimation technology by the United States’ National Institute of Standards and Technology shows the algorithms “fail significantly when attempting to differentiate minors” of various ages.

    The tests also show that error rates are higher for young women compared to young men. Error rates are also higher for people with darker skin tones.

    These studies show that even the best age-estimation software currently available – Yoti – has an average error of 1.0 years. Other software options mistake someone’s age by 3.1 years on average.

    This means, at best, a 16-year-old might be estimated to be 15 or 17 years old; at worst, they could be seen to be 13 or 19 years of age. These error rates mean a significant number of children under 16 could access social media accounts despite a ban being in place, while some over 16 could be blocked.

    Yoti also explains businesses needing to check exact ages (such as 18) can set higher age thresholds (such as 25), so fewer people under 18 get through the age check.

    This approach would be similar to that taken in Australia’s retail liquor sector, where sales staff verify ID for anyone who appears to be under the age of 25. However, many young people lack the government-issued ID required for an additional age check.

    It’s also worth remembering that in August 2023, the Australian government acknowledged that the age assurance technology market was “immature” and could not yet meet key requirements, such as working reliably without circumvention and balancing privacy and security.

    Outstanding questions

    We don’t yet know exactly what methods platforms will use to verify account holders’ ages. While face-scanning technologies are often discussed, they could use other methods to confirm age. The government trial also tested voice and hand movements to guess young people’s ages. But those methods also have accuracy issues.

    And it’s not yet clear what recourse people will have if their age is misidentified. Will parents be able to complain if children under 16 gain access to accounts, despite restrictions? Will older Australians who are incorrectly blocked be able to appeal? And if so, to whom?

    There are other outstanding questions. What’s stopping someone who’s under 16 from getting someone who is over 16 to set up an account on their behalf? To mitigate this risk, the government might require all social media users to verify their age at regular intervals.

    It’s also unclear what level of age estimation error the government may be willing to accept in implementing a social media ban. The legislation says technology companies must demonstrate they have taken “reasonable steps” to prevent under 16s from holding social media accounts. What is considered “reasonable” is yet to be clearly defined.

    Australians will have to wait until later this year for the full results of the government’s trial to be released, and to know how technology companies will respond. With less than six months until the ban comes into effect, social media users still don’t have all the answers they need.

    Lisa M. Given receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia and the international Association for Information Science and Technology.

    – ref. Technology to enforce teen social media ban is ‘effective’, trial says. But this is at odds with other evidence – https://theconversation.com/technology-to-enforce-teen-social-media-ban-is-effective-trial-says-but-this-is-at-odds-with-other-evidence-259373

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Israel — and potentially the U.S. — is sure to encounter the limits of air power in Iran

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University

    As the war between Israel and Iran escalates, Israel is increasing its calls on the United States to become involved in the conflict.

    Former Israeli officials are appearing on U.S. news outlets, exhorting the American public to support Israel’s actions.

    President Donald Trump has signalled a willingness for the U.S. to become involved in the conflict. He’s gone so far, in fact, to suggest in social media posts that he could kill Iran’s supreme leader if he wanted to.

    Segment on Trump’s threats against Iran’s leader. (BBC News)

    The American military could certainly make an impact in any air campaign against Iran. The problem from a military standpoint, however, is that the U.S., based on its forces’ deployment, will almost certainly seek to keep its involvement limited to its air force to avoid another Iraq-like quagmire.

    While doing so could almost certainly disrupt Iran’s nuclear program, it will likely fall short of Israel’s goal of regime change.

    In fact, it could reinforce the Iranian government and draw the U.S. into a costly ground war.




    Read more:
    Why is there so much concern over Iran’s nuclear program? And where could it go from here?


    Israel’s need for American support

    The initial stated reason for Israel’s bombing campaign — Iran’s nuclear capabilities — appears specious at best.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has argued several times in the past, without evidence, that Iran is close to achieving a nuclear weapon. U.S. intelligence, however, have assessed that Iran is three years away from deploying a nuclear weapon.

    Regardless of the veracity of the claims, Israel initiated the offensive and now requires American support.

    Israel’s need for U.S. assistance rests on two circumstances:

    1. While Israel succeeded in eliminating key figures from the Iranian military in its initial strikes, Iran’s response appears to have exceeded Israel’s expectations with their Arrow missile interceptors nearing depletion.

    2. Israel’s air strikes can only achieve so much in disrupting Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Most analysts note that Israel’s bombings are only likely to delay the Iranian nuclear program by a few months. This is due to the fact that Israeli missiles are incapable of penetrating the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, which estimates place close to 300 feet underground.

    The United States, however, possesses munitions that could damage, or even destroy, the Fordow facility. Most notably, the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (more commonly known as a bunker buster) has a penetration capability of 200 feet.

    Multiple strikes by said munition would render Fordow inoperable, if not outright destroyed.

    Romanticizing air power

    The efficacy of air power has been vastly overrated in the popular media and various air forces of the world. Air power is great at disrupting an opponent, but has significant limitations in influencing the outcome of a war.

    Specifically, air power is likely to prove an inadequate tool for one of the supposed Israeli and American objectives in the war: regime change. For air power to be effective at bringing about regime change, it needs to demoralize the Iranian people to the point that they’re willing to oppose their own government.

    Early air enthusiasts believed that a population’s demoralization would be an inevitable consequence of aerial bombardment. Italian general Giulio Douhet, a prominent air power theorist, argued that air power was so mighty that it could destroy cities and demoralize an opponent into surrendering.

    Douhet was correct on the first point. He was wrong on the second.

    Recent history provides evidence. While considerable ink has been spilled to demonstrate the efficacy of air power during the Second World War, close examination of the facts demonstrate that it had a minimal impact. In fact, Allied bombing of German cities in several instances created the opposite effect.

    More recent bombing campaigns replicated this failure. The U.S. bombing of North Vietnam during the Vietnam War did not significantly damage North Vietnamese morale or war effort. NATO’s bombing of Serbia in 1999, likewise, rallied support for the unpopular Slobodan Milosevic due to its perceived injustice — and continues to evoke strong emotions to this day.

    Iran’s political regime may be unpopular with many Iranians, but Israeli and potentially American bombing may shore up support for the Iranian government.

    Nationalism is a potent force, particularly when people are under attack. Israel’s bombing of Iran will rally segments of the population to the government that would otherwise oppose it.

    Few positive options

    The limitations of air power to fuel significant political change in Iran should give Trump pause about intervening in the conflict.

    Some American support, such as providing weapons, is a given due to the close relationship between the U.S. and Israel. But any realization of American and Israeli aspirations of a non-nuclear Iran and a new government will likely require ground forces.

    Recent American experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq show such a ground forces operation won’t lead to the swift victory that Trump desires, but could potentially stretch on for decades.

    James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Israel — and potentially the U.S. — is sure to encounter the limits of air power in Iran – https://theconversation.com/why-israel-and-potentially-the-u-s-is-sure-to-encounter-the-limits-of-air-power-in-iran-259348

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI China: Coventry outlines Olympic vision ahead of IOC presidency

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Kirsty Coventry, poised to become the first woman and the first African to lead the International Olympic Committee, has laid out her vision for the future of the Olympic Movement, grounded in its core values and potential for global unity.

    Coventry, elected in March during the 144th IOC Session in Greece, will assume the presidency on June 23, succeeding Thomas Bach, who has led the organization since 2013. She received 49 of 97 votes in the first round, prevailing over six other candidates.

    Newly-elected president of International Olympic Committee (IOC) Kirsty Coventry attends the press conference in Costa Navarino, Greece, March 20, 2025. (Xinhua/Cao Can)

    “Values are what have led this movement for over a hundred years. It’s what’s kept this movement intertwined together. And that is something that we can never compromise,” the 41-year-old Zimbabwean told the Olympic Channel at the Olympic House in Lausanne on Thursday.

    “We have to be proud that we’re a movement that not just lives by its values, but shares its values, and promotes its values,” Coventry said.

    “And if we can find more ways to do that in the future, and can reach all households around the world, that’s part of my goal. How do we have more reach to communities across our massive globe? How do we reach those children to share our values with them? How do we reach them to inspire them?”

    Despite the weight of expectations that accompany the role, Coventry expressed enthusiasm about the opportunity to lead.

    “I don’t really look at the presidency as a weight,” she said. “Are there a lot of expectations? Yes. Does that come with a lot of responsibility? Yes. But I’m really so honored to have been given this opportunity, and I’m so excited for what the future holds. It’s a movement that has been a part of my life for so long, so it almost feels like a very natural progression.”

    Coventry’s deep ties to the Olympics began with her storied swimming career. She competed in five consecutive Games beginning in Sydney 2000, winning seven medals – including two golds – and becoming Africa’s most decorated Olympian. Her return to Zimbabwe after her Olympic success, during a time of national difficulty, further cemented her belief in sport’s transformative power.

    In addition to her achievements in the pool, Coventry has played a key role in sports governance. She joined the IOC as an athlete member in 2013, chaired the Athletes’ Commission, served on the Executive Board, and led initiatives promoting safe sports environments for children through the Kirsty Coventry Academy and the HEROES programme in Zimbabwe.

    She also served as Zimbabwe’s Minister of Youth, Sport, Arts and Recreation from 2018, during which she pushed legislation aimed at curbing match-fixing, abuse, and sexual harassment in sport.

    Balancing her new role with her home life as the mother of two young daughters has been a challenge, she admitted.

    “It has been crazy. And it’s been hard, but it’s also been wonderful,” Coventry said.

    “I have a lot more patience,” she added. “I now realize I can do a lot more with a lot less sleep. [The children] humble you. And when you get home after a rough day, you can look at them and you can realize, ‘Okay, this is why we’re doing this.’ But we’re also doing this so that the Olympic Games and our values remain relevant in this crazy world of ours. They’re the meaning.”

    MIL OSI China News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Global survey finds 8 out of 10 people support taxing oil and gas corporations to pay for climate damages

    Source: Oxfam Aotearoa

    A majority of people believe governments must tax oil, gas and coal corporations for climate-related loss and damage, and that their government is not doing enough to counter the influence on politics of the super-rich and polluting industries. These are the key findings of a global survey, which reflects broad consensus across political affiliations, income levels and age groups. Today’s study, which was jointly commissioned by Greenpeace International and Oxfam International, was launched at the Bonn UN climate meetings (SB62 16-26 June), where governments are discussing key climate policy priorities, including ways to mobilize at least US $1.3 trillion annually in climate finance for Global South countries by 2035. The poll was conducted across 13 countries, including most G7 countries. The study, run by Dynata, comes with additional research by Oxfam showing that a polluter profits tax on 590 oil, gas and coal companies could raise up to US $400 billion in its first year. This is equivalent to the estimated annual costs of climate damage in the Global South. Loss and damage costs from climate change to the Global South are estimated to reach between $290bn to $580bn annually by 2030.
    Key findings of the survey include:
    • 81% of people surveyed support new taxes on the oil, coal and gas industry to pay for damages caused by fossil-fuel driven climate disasters like storms, floods, droughts and wildfires.
    • 86% of people in surveyed countries support channelling revenues from higher taxes on oil and gas corporations towards communities who are most impacted by the climate crisis. Climate change is disproportionately hitting people in Global South countries, who are historically least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions.
    • When asked who should be taxed to pay for helping survivors of fossil-fuel driven climate disasters, 66% of people across countries surveyed think it should be oil and gas companies compared to than 5% who support taxes on working people, 9% on goods people buy, and 20% in favour of business taxes.
    • 68% felt that the fossil fuel industry and the super-rich had a negative influence on politics in their country. 77% say they would be more willing to support a political candidate who prioritises taxing the super-rich and the fossil fuel industry. 
    Oxfam’s research finds that 585 of the world’s largest and most polluting fossil fuel companies made $583 billion in profits in 2024, a 68% increase since 2019. The annual emissions of 340 of these corporations (for whom data was available) accounted for over half of global greenhouse gas emissions caused by humans. Their emissions in just one year are enough to cause 2.7 million heat-related deaths over the next century. A polluter profits tax on these companies would ensure that renewable energy is more profitable than fossil fuels, encouraging companies to invest in renewables, as well as avoid more deaths driven by fossil fuelled climate change. This new tax must be accompanied by higher taxes on the super-rich and other polluting companies. Governments should impose such taxes nationally and engage positively at the UN to ensure a fair global tax agreement.
    Nick Henry, Climate Justice Lead for Oxfam Aotearoa, said: “This new poll shows that people support Oxfam’s call for our leaders to make polluting corporations pay for the damage they cause to our climate.”
    “People understand that storms, floods, drought, wildfires, and other extreme weather events are being fuelled by oil and gas corporations. Instead of leaving communities exposed to deal with these devastating costs alone, governments can unlock huge sums of money to invest in climate solutions through making dirty energy companies pay,” said Rebecca Newsom, Global Political Lead for Greenpeace’s Stop Drilling, Start Paying campaign. “The Polluters Pay Pact unites communities on the frontlines of climate disasters, concerned citizens, first responders like firefighters and humanitarian groups around the world to call on politicians to act now through making polluters, not people, pay for climate damages.”  
    Amitabh Behar, Executive Director of Oxfam International, said: “Mega-rich coal, oil and gas companies have known for decades about the damage their polluting products wreak on humanity. Corporations continue to cash in on climate devastation, and their profiteering destroys the lives and livelihoods of millions of women, men and children, predominantly those in the Global South who have done the least to cause the climate crisis. Governments must listen to their people and hold rich polluters responsible for their damages. A new tax on polluting industries could provide immediate and significant support to climate-vulnerable countries and finally incentivise investment in renewables and a just transition.”
    Nick Henry continued: “Rather than subsidising new oil and gas drilling, and fast-tracking coal mines, our Government should be holding fossil fuel companies responsible for the costs facing our communities to adapt to climate change.”
    NOTES:
    • The research was conducted by market research company Dynata in May-June, 2025, in Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Kenya, Italy, India, Mexico, the Philippines, South Africa, Spain, the UK and the US. Together, these countries represent close to half the world’s population. Results available here.
    • Oxfam’s polluter profits tax model is explained in this blog and methodology note attached. The methodology note also explains the basis for the emissions of fossil fuel companies and their impacts on heat-related deaths. These deaths were calculated on the basis of emissions in 2023. 

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University

    Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal.

    The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It’s expected to start operating in 2026.

    Human rights organisations, international lawyers and some (mostly European) states have long been calling for the establishment of such a tribunal. Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights lawyer, called the establishment of the tribunal:

    an important breakthrough for the international justice community and especially for the millions of Ukrainians who have been harmed by the Russian aggression.

    However, important questions remain about if it could truly hold senior Russian officials accountable.

    So, how will this new special tribunal work, and will it be effective – or necessary?

    How does the special tribunal fill the gaps left by the ICC and ICJ?

    This tribunal is separate to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

    The ICC can prosecute individuals charged with genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Russian war on Ukraine. So far, it has issued arrest warrants against four Russian senior officials, including President Vladimir Putin.

    Because Russia is not a member state to the court, the court can’t exercise legal authority over what’s known in international law as a crime of aggression (when leaders of a state launch or plan a war). For the ICC to be able to exercise this jurisdiction, the aggressor state also must be a member state of the court.

    The ICJ is a different court altogether. It primarily deals with and adjudicates disputes between states, not limited to war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. It can’t hold individuals accountable, and can only exercise jurisdiction over a dispute if both states to a dispute agree.

    While the ICC seeks to establish individual criminal responsibility, the ICJ may establish state responsibility for a violation of international law.

    Currently, there are also two cases between Ukraine and Russia before the ICJ.

    Neither deals with the question of the legality of Russia’s use of force in its invasion in February 2022. Both Ukraine and Russia would need to consent to bring this issue before the court.

    So, is a new tribunal necessary?

    Yes, because the crime of aggression currently can’t be addressed by any other international court or tribunal.

    Given the limitations of what the ICJ and ICC can do, a dedicated tribunal seems the obvious solution to hold those responsible for the illegal use of force against Ukraine accountable.

    And it’s not uncommon for specialised tribunals with limited jurisdiction over a specific situation to be created.

    Other historical examples include the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia and the Special Court for Sierra Leone.

    Given the ICC’s lack of jurisdiction over the crime of aggression, the new special tribunal would complement the court’s existing investigations into war crimes and crimes against humanity.

    Who is running the new tribunal and how will it work?

    The exact content and specifics of this new tribunal will remain unknown until the draft statute of the tribunal is published. That’s a document that outlines details including the tribunal’s jurisdiction, the applicable definition of aggression and how the tribunal will function.

    At this stage, the Council of Europe has confirmed the tribunal will work within its legal framework and principles. It will be funded by an international coalition of supportive states.

    A management committee of members and associate members of the tribunal will be responsible for the election of the tribunal’s judges and prosecutors. The management committee is made up of the Council of Europe’s council of ministers and Ukraine.

    Diplomatic discussions are still ongoing at this point, but the legal process for establishing the special tribunal can begin now.

    Will this special tribunal be more effective?

    Political, legal and practical challenges for the special tribunal remain. It’s unclear if the most senior Russian state officials can and will be able to be brought to trial for the crime of aggression.

    Nothing, so far, suggests the statute of the tribunal will contain an exception to state immunity enjoyed by heads of state, heads of governments and foreign ministers while in power.

    That means these office holders can only be prosecuted if they are no longer in power or the Russian government expressly waives their immunity.

    It’s also unclear whether states will be willing to arrest those sought by the special tribunal.

    The ICC has long faced this challenge trying to get states to act on its arrest warrants.

    Hungary, for instance, did not arrest Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when he visited in April, despite an ICC arrest warrant for alleged crimes against humanity in connection with the war in Gaza.

    For the special tribunal to be effective, according to Oleksandra Matviichuk, it:

    must not become a remote and hollow entity that does not engage with the Ukrainian victims.

    Overall, much remains unclear. Will this new special tribunal be able to hold the likes of Putin accountable for the crime of aggression? Or will it become another empty promise?

    Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective? – https://theconversation.com/a-new-special-tribunal-will-investigate-russias-aggression-against-ukraine-will-it-be-effective-257823

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Banking: Samsung Electronics Partners With Electronic Arts and Xbox To Bring EA SPORTS FC™ 25 to Samsung Gaming Hub

    Source: Samsung

     
    Samsung Electronics today announced a partnership with Electronic Arts (EA) and Xbox to bring the action of EA SPORTS FCTM 25 to Samsung Gaming Hub. Samsung TV and monitor owners can now play EA SPORTS FC 25 through the Xbox app with Xbox Cloud Gaming (Beta)1 on supported devices.2 All players need to get started is a compatible controller and Xbox Game Pass Ultimate, which includes EA Play.
     
    As a special promotion, new Xbox Game Pass subscribers can receive a two-month Ultimate Game Pass subscription.3 The offer is available to both existing Samsung TV owners and those who buy a new, qualifying TV. To redeem, users can simply download the Samsung Promotions app on their Samsung TV, click the Xbox promotion banner or scan the QR code with their mobile device, and then follow the steps on the screen to activate their offer.
     
    “We are delighted to bring EA SPORTS FC 25 to Samsung TVs and monitors through cloud gaming on Samsung Gaming Hub,” said Hun Lee, Executive Vice President of the Visual Display Business at Samsung Electronics. “As the world’s leading TV manufacturer, one of our goals is to immerse soccer fans around the world in the exciting game of soccer, whether they are playing the game or watching a match live on a Samsung TV.”
     
    EA SPORTS FC 25 gives players more ways to win for the club, by teaming up with friends across their favorite modes with 5v5 Rush and managing their clubs to victory as FC IQ delivers more tactical control than ever before. Fans will also continue to experience unparalleled authenticity with the most true-to-life experience of football’s biggest competitions, clubs and stars. FC 25 features over 19,000 athletes across more than 700 teams, 120 stadiums and 30 leagues from around the world.
     
    Samsung Gaming Hub, first introduced in 2022, has redefined home entertainment by giving players access to thousands of games directly on Samsung TVs and monitors. This includes the 2025 TV series, spanning Samsung Neo QLED 8K, Neo QLED 4K, OLED, QLED, The Frame and The Frame Pro, which are powered by Samsung Vision AI for AI enhanced picture and sound, along with new personalized features that bring people closer to the shows, movies and games they love.
     
    In a first for the TV industry, Samsung has partnered with Microsoft to integrate Xbox Cloud Gaming (Beta) into its smart TVs and monitors, and now supports a wide range of streamed games from partners including NVIDIA GeForce NOW and Amazon Luna.
     
    For more information on Samsung Gaming Hub, please visit www.samsung.com.
     
     
    1 In 27 countries (Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, United States, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Korea), the game is available via Samsung Gaming Hub.
    Supported features and games may vary by country and model. An internet connection, additional gaming service subscription and compatible controller are required. Samsung Account required for network-based smart services, including streaming apps and other smart features.
    2 Available on select 2022 or later Samsung Smart TVs and Monitors.
    3 Claim Game Pass Ultimate trial by August 12,2025. Redeem at https://www.xbox.com/redeem by August 19, 2025. Valid for new Xbox Game Pass members only. Available in all regions with Xbox Cloud Gaming (Beta) supporting the Xbox app on Samsung, excluding Korea and Argentina.

    MIL OSI Global Banks –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: Keith Rankin Analysis – America’s imperial ‘gift’: ‘Crusader Democracy’ versus ‘Christian Nationalism’

    Analysis by Keith Rankin.

    Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

    The United States has always fancied itself as the founder of modern democracy (aka ‘Democracy’). And, although that country has been self-absorbed for most of its history, it has always sensed that Democracy was its greatest export.

    ‘America’ became involved in Africa and the ‘Middle East’ very early in its history. There was the American–Algerian War (1785–1795); and the Barbary Wars (1801-1805,1815), featuring the heroic re-seizure and scuttling by fire of the USS Philadelphia in Tripoli Harbor in 1804. Then there was the reverse colonisation (aka ‘liberation’, ‘democratization’) of a small corner of Africa from 1822, leading to Liberia’s independence in 1862.

    In the 1846, there was the small matter of the United States’ invasion of Mexico, resulting in the 1848 annexation of half of Mexico’s territory. ‘America’ brought Democracy to California, through annexation. And, in 1898, the United States appropriated Spain’s remaining worldwide empire, including the Philippines. And some other territories, including Hawaii. Upon his inauguration as the 47th President, Donald Trump explicitly invoked the memory of President William McKinley, America’s most notorious annexor of foreign territory.

    And in 1889: “Three American warships then entered the Apia harbor and prepared to engage the three German warships found there. Before any shots were fired, a typhoon wrecked both the American and German ships.” After ten years of military/political  stalemate – known as the Second Samoan Civil War – the Samoan ‘assets’ were split between the United States, the German Second Reich, and the United Kingdom. (The UK traded its share with Germany. Britain gave up all claims to Samoa and in return accepted the termination of German rights in Tonga, certain areas in the Solomon Islands, and Zanzibar.)

    America’s imperial ‘burden’ in the last 125 years

    Rudyard Kipling’s poem The White Man’s Burden was written in 1899; “a poem about the Philippine–American War (1899–1902) that exhorts the United States to assume colonial control of the Filipino people and their country”.

    America’s empire today is partly formal, though mostly informal, with various grades of informality. Indeed, the recent acknowledgement by the European Union that it has free-ridden on the United States for its defence indicates that the United States has had a significant degree of imperial control over Europe; hegemony manifesting as control over foreign policy.

    The name ‘America’ itself is an imperial grab. America is the name for two continents, yet even the Canadians call the United States ‘America’, and its citizens ‘Americans’. American exceptionalism represents the weaponisation of democracy. Democracy is packaged as ‘Democracy’, a secular faith like ‘Communism’ or ‘Economic Liberalism’; a faith which must be proselytised, spread across the world as some kind of holy or secular crusade.

    The remaining territories on the ‘autocratic’ ‘Dark Side’ – ie territories not subject to United States’ ‘protection’ – are mainly in continental Asia: especially West Asia (much of which is imperialistically called the ‘Middle East’, which extends to North Africa), North Asia, and East Asia. Though there is also very much a contest for South Asia; a contest, which if successful for the White Man’s force, will bring secular Hindi along with secular Judaism fully into the imperial fold of secular Christianity. (We note that the labels Hindu and Jew have long been name-tags which confuse and conflate religion with ethnicity. So it may soon be with Christianity; with top-tier Christians behaving very much as top-tier Jews behave today, as supremacist gift-givers and bomb-throwers.)

    We should note that Catholic Christianity is now uneasy about this crusader culture, having been the main perpetrator of such culture nearly a millennium ago. And Orthodox Christianity is even more uneasy. In its North Asian (ie Russian) form, Orthodox Christianity – like Islam, and Chinese atheist capitalism – is a target of the present Christian Soldiers, not a collaborator. (The decline of the Christian East came with the Fourth Crusade in 1204. Ostensibly a western invasion force going to re-recover the ‘Holy Land’, instead that Crusade turned on Orthodox Christian Constantinople. The result was a weak Latin empire in the east; easy prey for the Ottoman forces which in 1453 created a Muslim empire in West Asia and Southeast Europe; an empire that lasted until 1918.)

    The modern American-led crusading mentality represents a schism of Protestant Evangelism (which dates back in particular to the Calvinist side of the sixteenth century Reformation) and Secular Liberalism. Protestant Evangelism (increasingly known today as Christian Nationalism) is the imperial currency of today’s Republican Party, whereas Secular Liberalism is the imperial currency of today’s Democratic Party (although secular Neoliberalism is presently teaming up with the Evangelists). What both have in common is a will to impose themselves upon the rest of the world. And to produce and export lots of big guns, military hardware; making money, and making American jobs.

    There are some strange bedfellows. As these two American socio-cultural Gods – Republican and Democrat; protagonist and antagonist, and vice versa – have battled out their Americanisms on a world stage, we have seen a significant posse of very rich devout Economic Liberals taking the side of the Christian Nationalists. So do a number of working-class and other disempowered former ballot-box ‘Leftists’, who wish to cast an anti-establishment vote but don’t know which way to turn. This dabbling with new right-radicalism (not unlike leftist dabbling in New Zealand in 1984 with the recently late Bob Jones’ New Zealand Party) follows the slow but comprehensive gutting of the Left-project that was so buoyant in the 1960s and 1970s.

    The name Christian Nationalism is a misnomer; a better name is Christian Extranationalism. Rather than being an internationalist movement – internationalism is a liberal concept – this is a movement to perpetuate and extend the global domination of American culture, through imperial merchant capitalism. The United States was born out of British merchant capitalism (and New York out of Dutch merchant capitalism); its values and institutions reflect those of eighteenth-century western Europe. Just as the British exacted tribute from their American colonies; imperial America seeks to extract tribute through the ‘negotiation’ of asymmetric ‘deals’. Are we today witnessing an American Napoleon?

    Money, Lies and God: by Katherine Stewart (2025)

    Katherine Stewart this year has written about the new eclectic rightwing coalition in the United States that is coalescing under the name of Christian Nationalism. Though I’ve only read the introduction so far, the book has a real strength, in particular in identifying five components of this new new-right coalition: funders, thinkers, sergeants, infantry, power-players.

    Of particular interest to me is the “out-sourced” relationship between the funders and the thinkers. While Stewart emphasises the ‘thinkers’ in the well-funded (and mostly conservative) ‘Think Tanks’, the real issue is that of ‘selective truth’, in the Darwinian sense of ‘selection’. Our ‘intellectual’ careerists compete to publish ‘truths’, and the truths which prevail will be the truths purchased by the ‘funders’, given that the funders have most of the funds.

    This kind of relationship with truth is somewhat like a ‘court-of-law’, where commonly two ‘truths’ are subject to a contest in which one will be declared ‘the winner’. Not uncommonly, both rival ‘truths’ are at least partially false, and there may be other (possibly truer) truths that are not even ‘on the table’. Evidence represents a part of the court process, but by no means the whole of that process. The truth-relationship between the funders and thinkers is a corrupt form of the ‘law court’ model; the more corrupt the more wealth the conservative funders control. Academic careers – indeed scientists’ careers – are built on perpetuating narratives acceptable to their patrons.

    While Money, Lies and God represents a prescient and useful analysis, ultimately it is part of the problem. It represents one side of the great American divide calling out the other side. The process of belligerent finger-pointing – between, in American language, ‘liberals’ and ‘conservatives’ – is the bigger problem. Why bother talking about the world when you can talk about half of America instead? Indeed, too many American intellectuals talk and write about the United States as if America is the World; a kind of mental imperialism. (Another critique of American ‘Christian Nationalism’ can be found in a recent Upfront episode on Al Jazeera: The growing influence of Christian Nationalism and Christian Zionism in the United States.)

    The problem of American imperialism belongs to both sides of the Divide; indeed, it is the Secular Liberalism of what has been exposed as the tone-deaf establishment – the Blinkens, Bidens and Nods – who represented the moral hypocrisy of America’s imperial democratic gift. (The sheer stupidity of the Biden re-election campaign is documented in Original Sin, 2025, by Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson.) That is, the belief that America created modern Democracy, and that those parts of the world – especially the ‘western’ world – have special rights accruing to them because they have been awarded the ‘tick of Democracy’. These countries – and only these countries – have the “right to defend themselves”, the right to make war (as ‘defence through attack’), and the “right to possess nuclear weapons”.

    Contemporary American imperialism is mainly a ‘West on East’ phenomenon; Asia is the target. Ukraine and Anatolia (Türkiye) are border territories between Europe and Asia. Palestine, perhaps too, given its location on the Mediterranean Sea; though the Mediterranean littoral, from Istanbul to Morocco, is better understood as West Asia, not Europe. Iran is unambiguously a part of Asia. What we are seeing at present is nothing less than a Euro-American invasion of Asia. Imperialism. Nuclear imperialism; geopolitical imperialism; cultural imperialism. The gift that keeps on taking.

    Note on the boundary between Europe and Asia

    We should note that the core geopolitical boundary between Europe and Asia was set by Charlemagne in around the year 800; representing the border between the predominancies of Catholic Christianity and Orthodox Christianity (harking back to the Western and Eastern Roman Empires). There are other important historic geopolitical boundaries in Eurasia, of course, such as the eastern and southern borders of Orthodox Christianity; and the eastern and northern borders of Islam-dominated territories. Indeed there is perpetual tension on the Pakistan-India border.

    The principal medieval-era departure from that Charlemagne-set geopolitical boundary was the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, which peaked in territory in the fifteenth century. The first significant modern-era fudge of that geopolitical boundary was the West’s acquisition of Greece over the long 19th century (essentially 1820s to 1920s). The Great World War started in 1914 very much as an East-West border conflict in the Balkans of southeast Europe. After a week or two of fudging, the anglosphere took the Eastern side; siding with Russia over Austria and Germany.

    Post World War Two, the next main geopolitical border fudges were the ‘settlements’ which placed a number of mainly Catholic East European countries into Russia’s orb; and which placed Türkiye (then Turkey) into NATO. The current twenty first century fudge is one of European expansion, placing a number of predominantly Orthodox territories – most notably Ukraine – firmly into the European political realm.

    This longstanding geopolitical boundary contrasts with the widely-accepted geographic boundary; the latter – based more on physical geography and ethnicity than on faith-culture – passes along the Ural and Caucasus mountain chains, and through the lower Volga River, the Black Sea and the Bosporus/Dardanelle channels. Geopolitically, Russia, Belarus and Türkiye should be understood today to be Asian countries; indeed, the lower Dnieper River and line of the military trenches in Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Luhansk constitute the current geopolitical boundary between West and East; between Europe and Asia. And the lines within Eretz Israel – separating Israel from Palestine – also represent geopolitical borders; and American geopolitical encroachment on Asia.

    *******

    Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI China: Hong Kong becoming more attractive as int’l financial center: spokesperson

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    BEIJING, June 19 — Hong Kong is becoming more attractive as an international financial center, and it is drawing more foreign companies and individuals to make investments and start new businesses, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said on Thursday.

    Spokesperson Guo Jiakun made the remarks at a regular news briefing when asked to comment on Hong Kong’s rise in the rankings in the 2025 IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, released recently by the International Institute for Management Development (IMD) in Lausanne, Switzerland.

    The yearbook said Hong Kong advances to the third position in the global competitiveness rankings. This is the first time Hong Kong has returned to top three in the rankings since 2019. The yearbook also puts Hong Kong at the first in the Tax Policy and Business Legislation rankings.

    “The yearbook is a recognition of Hong Kong’s unique position and strength, and the prospect of ‘one country, two systems.’ Hong Kong has entered a stage where it is set to thrive,” Guo said, adding that Hong Kong remains one of the world’s freest economies and most competitive regions.

    According to statistics, the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) gained No.1 spot in global fundraising in the first half of this year, with a total amount of 14 billion U.S. dollars. The number of overseas visitors received by Hong Kong in the first five months of this year rose by 18 percent year on year, and a number of large international companies have redomiciled to Hong Kong, Guo said.

    “Those are votes of confidence for Hong Kong from the international community,” he said.

    Noting the Hong Kong national security law will soon enter its fifth year of implementation, Guo said China believes that with the institutional safeguards of “one country, two systems,” and given Hong Kong’s unique advantage of having the backing of the motherland and being connected to the world as well as a secure environment for high-quality development, Hong Kong is headed to an even brighter future.

    MIL OSI China News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: expert reaction to observational study of blood biomarkers in ME/CFS patients

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    June 20, 2025

    An observational study published in EMBO Molecular Medicine looks at blood biomarkers in ME/CFS patients. 

    Prof Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics, Open University, said:

    “I think this is an important piece of research, but it’s also important to be careful not to claim too much from its findings. There’s a lot more to do.

    “The press release and the research paper both make it clear that these findings could help in finding a set of blood biomarkers that can reasonably reliably distinguish people with ME/CFS from those who do not have that condition, but that, without a lot of further work, the findings do not in themselves provide such a set of biomarkers. For instance, the last sentence of the abstract of the paper says, “Nevertheless, their number [of traits that differed between people with ME/CFS and people without that condition], diversity and lack of sex bias keep alive the future ambition of a blood-based biomarker panel for accurate ME/CFS diagnosis.” I hope personally that that ambition can be achieved, but the researchers are careful not to say that their findings indicate that it will definitely be achieved.

    “A strength of the study is that it uses data from the very large UK Biobank study, based on over 1,400 people who reported they had been diagnosed with ME/CFS and over 130,000 ‘controls’ who had not had that diagnosis, as well as data from a smaller (but still quite large) US study called All-of-Us. 

    “But, in the research paper, the researchers are very careful to say that they are reporting associations, that is, correlations, between blood measurements and whether or not people have ME/CFS, and that, to quote the paper, “no causal statements are made” about those associations. That’s essentially because data from the UK Biobank is observational. Any differences between the group with ME/CFS and the controls without ME/CFS could be caused by the different disease status, but it could also, in whole or in part, be caused by other differences (so-called potential confounders) between people with and without ME/CFS that are not a direct consequence of that condition. 

    “The researchers did use methods of what’s called causal inference to try to throw further light in what causes what, and in particular they found that the differences in blood measurements were unlikely to stem from the fact that people with ME/CFS typically exercise less than people without that condition. That’s a useful and important finding, I think. But other potential confounders couldn’t be dealt with in a similar way, so other aspects of cause and effect just can’t be sorted out. Indeed (as the researchers mention) the possible existence of other confounders means that the assumptions behind the analyses involving exercise may not entirely be valid. To get further with all this will need a lot more, and different, research, including work on what may actually be causing the observed differences within people’s bodies.

    “There are also some issues stemming from the use of data from the UK Biobank. Again this is reported in the research paper. For instance, participants who volunteered for the Biobank are healthier than the average UK population, and the research paper mentions that people with severe ME/CFS may simply not have been able to go through the assessment and data collection process required, and so are unlikely to have contributed towards the findings on a large scale.

    “Also, because the recording of ME/CFS diagnoses took place some time ago, people’s status on ME/CFS is not in accord with the definitions of the condition that are generally used now. Roughly half of the people who were treated as having ME/CFS did not state that they had post-exertional malaise (PEM for short, a major worsening of symptoms after even minor mental or physical exertion). Post-exertional malaise is now generally considered an essential part of ME/CFS, and people who do not have it would under most up-to-date conditions not be considered to have ME/CFS. But in the past, post-exertional malaise was not considered an essential part of the definition of the disease, so people in the UK Biobank who were diagnosed with ME/CFS in the past might not have had post-exertional malaise.

    “Arguably, this does not really weaken the findings of this study.  The strongest evidence on potential biomarkers was in people who did have post-exertional malaise. But the study did still find some differences in potential biomarkers between people who had had an ME/CFS diagnosis but did not report post-exertional malaise, and the control people who had never had an ME/CFS diagnosis. If these people who would once have been diagnosed with ME/CFS, and who may still have really disabling and long-lasting symptoms, are defined as not having ME/CFS and are not included in developing biomarkers, does that have consequences for the treatment they can receive? Obviously this new study isn’t intended to answer that kind of question, but it’s something that shouldn’t be forgotten as biomarker research for ME/CFS moves on.”

    ‘Replicated blood-based biomarkers for Myalgic Encephalomyelitis not explicable by inactivity’ by Sjoerd Viktor Beentjes et al. was published in EMBO Molecular Medicine at 00:01 UK time on Friday 20th June. 

    Declared interests

    Prof Kevin McConway: No conflicts of interest

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: £750,000 to break down barriers and get more young people into aviation jobs

    Source: United Kingdom – Government Statements

    Press release

    £750,000 to break down barriers and get more young people into aviation jobs

    Organisations have until 12 September 2025 to apply for the latest Reach for the Sky Challenge fund.

    • new funding will break down barriers and help young people from disadvantaged backgrounds into aviation careers
    • this brings the Reach for the Sky Challenge Fund to over £3 million: helping to secure the pilots, engineers and aviation professionals of the future
    • this funding will further turbocharge the £20 billion air transport and aerospace sector, supporting its 240,000 UK jobs and delivering growth through our Plan for Change

    The next generation of pilots and engineers will benefit from new £750,000 funding to inspire them, support them into jobs and break down barriers to the sector.

    Organisations can, from today (20 June 2025), apply for the latest Reach for the Sky Challenge Fund to help deliver aviation outreach programmes targeting disadvantaged young people, including those from ethnic minorities, who may not have considered a career in the sector before.  

    Now on its fourth round, Reach for the Sky Challenge Fund has already delivered £2.5 million to 40 organisations and has reached over 100,000 young people across the country.

    Funding can be used to deliver a range of programmes from career events, mentorship schemes, interactive demonstrations and educational initiatives with schools and universities.  

    This builds on the government’s promise to secure the long-term success of aviation by growing the workforce of the future. It will also break down the barriers which prevent people from joining the industry, including limited access to education, financial constraints and lack of exposure to career options.

    To launch the funding, Aviation Minister Mike Kane visited a careers workshop being held by current funding recipients, The King’s Trust, in a Liverpool youth centre. Young adults, ranging from 16 to 30, met aviation specialists, learning about the job opportunities locally in the industry and how to apply. They also took part in employability workshops focused on developing the practical skills needed for work.

    Aviation Minister, Mike Kane, said:

    This is exactly what this government is all about – breaking down barriers to opportunity so that everyone, no matter their background, has a decent shot at getting a good career and building a good life. 

    This funding will enable organisations like The King’s Trust to reach out to disadvantaged kids and support them into careers in aviation.  

    It also delivers on our promise to help the sector grow, by delivering the pilots, engineers and technicians of the future, boosting jobs and growth across the country as part of the Plan for Change.

    Such DfT-funded schemes have already supported over 100,000 young adults across the country to consider joining the industry.

    Aspiring aerospace engineer James, 24, from Bath, has struggled to find work since finishing school. Challenges with his mental health impacted his studies and confidence, and he left without the qualifications he wanted. 

    After completing a King’s Trust ‘Get Ready with Aviation’ programme last November, he successfully applied to study science, engineering and maths at Bristol University and starts in September.

    James said:

    Before the programme, I felt lost and uncertain about my future. I’d always been interested in space, but didn’t know where to start or what my options were. It felt out of reach. The programme helped me realise that working in the industry is possible and inspired me to apply for university and pursue my dream.

    Applications for the fund are now open until 12 September 2025 and applications will be reviewed by a joint panel of  DfT and UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) , which administers the fund on DfT’s behalf.

    Sophie Jones, STEM Sponsor at the CAA, said:

    As the aviation regulator, we are dedicated to inspiring the next generation who will take the sector forward.

    The Reach for the Sky Challenge Fund helps reach people making the first step.

    By reaching and empowering diverse communities and creating a lasting impact, we are inspiring young people across the UK to explore exciting careers in aviation.

    Julia Beaumont, Chief Technology and Programmes Officer at The King’s Trust, said:

    During the past 2 years, this funding has been vital in raising awareness of the job opportunities available for young people in the aviation industry, alongside equipping them with the confidence and skills to pursue these roles.  

    With a rapidly changing jobs market, supporting this generation to overcome the barriers they face in accessing these opportunities is crucial, not only benefiting them, but also their local communities and economy.

    Jeni Trice, CEO and Chief Coding Adventurer at Get with the Program, said:

    We’re already so pleased by the fantastic impact of our 2024 Reach for the Sky grant, which is helping us inspire 18,000 children aged 5 to 8 to become the aerospace tech innovators of the future.

    We know that higher aspirations, skills development, and social mobility opportunities are all vital for the UK’s future economic success and through this grant funding, we’ve been able to deliver initiatives, such as our ‘Moon Landing Coding Adventure’, which exposes children to exciting STEM careers in aerospace.

    Mariya Tarabanovska, Founder of Flight Crowd and DfT Aviation Ambassador, said:

    Thanks to this funding, Flight Crowd has connected the next generation of talent with the fast-evolving Future Flight sector — delivering outreach, mentoring, 1:1 career support and industry insights that have empowered over 400 students to shape the skies of tomorrow.

    As a 2-time recipient and DfT Aviation Ambassador, I know how vital it is to invest in our future workforce. This is an unmissable opportunity for organisations to create real, lasting impact.

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    Published 20 June 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: Many elite athletes live below the poverty line. Tax-deductible donations won’t solve the problem

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University

    Australia’s Jaclyn Narracott competes in the women’s skeleton at the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics. Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images

    As the end of the 2024-25 financial year nears, the Australian Olympic Committee (AOC), in partnership with the Australian Sports Foundation (ASF), has launched a new joint fundraising initiative allowing Australians to make tax-deductible donations directly to Australia’s Olympians and Paralympians.

    The ASF is an “Item 1” Deductible Gift Recipient (DGR) and is the only organisation in Australia that allows a donor to claim a tax deduction for philanthropic donations to sport.

    This is because sport is not currently eligible for either DGR or charitable status under Australian law.

    But is this new joint fundraising initiative a gold medal idea for our athletes, or one that falls short of a podium finish?

    Aussies tax payers and Olympic dreams

    The new initiative, named the “Aspiring Australian Olympian Funding program”, means individual donations of A$2 or more made through the ASF are tax-deductible.

    Australians can direct funds to a specific athlete, coach or official selected to participate in representative, elite or high performance sport in the Olympic/Paralympic program (summer and winter).

    Depending on the donor’s marginal tax rate, the effective cost of a donation may be reduced up to 62% for the highest earners (over $250,000).

    For instance, a $1,000 donation could yield a tax refund of up to $470, bringing the net cost down to just $530.

    Companies paying the full company tax rate that donate $1,000 would reduce their tax by $300 (30%).

    Ahead of the Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games, more than 30 Australian athletes (from disciplines such as alpine skiing, bobsleigh and figure skating) have signed up to use the platform.

    However, many Australian athletes are struggling financially, so more financial support is needed.

    The brutal reality for many athletes

    The ASF’s 2023 “Running on Empty” report found many of Australia’s elite athletes were under significant financial pressure: 46% of those over the age of 18 were earning less than $23,000 per year. This places them below the poverty line at $489 a week.

    The report also found 67% of elite athletes said their financial struggles affected their parents and support networks. Also, 42% of elite athletes aged 18-34 reported they were suffering poor mental health as a result of their financial predicament.

    The report also found the costs of training, equipment, travel and accommodation continued to rise, resulting in many questioning the sustainability of elite sport funding models both here and abroad.

    Pros and cons

    The new funding program’s use of tax incentives as a funding carrot is good in principle, but there are potential unintended consequences.

    This includes athletes being pitted against one another: there is a danger the athletes best skilled in marketing and public relations will receive more funding.

    The current economic climate doesn’t bode well for the program. Many Australians are facing cost-of-living pressures, which means a lot of people may not be able to donate even if they want to.

    Also, what happens if an athlete who benefits from the program is injured or found to be a drug cheat, and can’t compete? Can a donor request a refund?

    Finally, taxpayers who have the most capacity to donate are likely high income earners, some of whom may donate to sport entities already. Now, their donations will be subsidised by the tax system.

    Some alternative ideas

    In the United Kingdom, National Lottery revenue plays a significant role in funding Olympic and Paralympic sports. Administered by UK Sport (the UK’s equivalent of the ASC) funds from the lottery are directed to high performance sports programs and athletes.

    This approach could be replicated in Australia.

    Another idea is to redirect a portion of government taxes collected from sports betting, which could be lucrative given Australia’s love of sports gambling.




    Read more:
    Gambling in Australia: how bad is the problem, who gets harmed most and where may we be heading?


    The federal government could offer a further incentive by matching peoples’ donations dollar for dollar.

    As we direct funds to athletes, we need also think about the potential tax impact for them. Will the funds they receive be considered income and be taxed? The government could consider making the payment to the athlete tax free.

    If we are going to succeed on the world stage, especially as the 2032 Brisbane Olympic and Paralympic Games approach, we need to financially support our athletes so they can focus on representing their country.

    Michelle O’Shea receives funding from the Olympic Studies Centre.

    Connie Vitale receives funding from the federal government as part of the National Tax Clinic Program. She is affiliated with the Institute of Public Accountants and Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand.

    Robert B Whait receives funding from the federal government as part of the National Tax Clinic Program, Financial Literacy Australia (now Ecstra Foundation), ANZ Bank, and the Consumer Policy Research Centre (CPRC). He is affiliated with the Tax Institute of Australia and Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand.

    – ref. Many elite athletes live below the poverty line. Tax-deductible donations won’t solve the problem – https://theconversation.com/many-elite-athletes-live-below-the-poverty-line-tax-deductible-donations-wont-solve-the-problem-258914

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Security: Met Police increase patrols at summer concerts to protect women and girls

    Source: United Kingdom London Metropolitan Police

    The Metropolitan Police Service has stepped up patrols at major music events across the capital over the summer – helping to keep women and girls safe as the number of stadium concerts in London more than doubles this year.  

    As part of the ongoing crackdown on violent offenders, officers will be a visible and reassuring presence at more than 51 large-scale concerts throughout London.

    With more than three million people due to attend Wembley stadium alone, officers are working with event organisers who have primary responsibility for safety and security at concerts. In total over 5,000 officer shifts will be dedicated to supporting the concerts, including public order officers, protective security and dedicated Violence Against Women and Girls (VAWG) patrols.

    The operation began on Thursday, 5 June at the Beyoncé concert in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium –  the first of 19 concerts at the venue this summer – and has already had results. Officers supported venue security in removing individuals for stalking and threatening behaviour, and arrested a man for upskirting who remains on police bail while enquiries continue. 

    Their role working with event organisers and event security will include engaging with attendees, identifying and intervening in any predatory or violent behaviour, and responding swiftly to any incidents of VAWG. Officers will also be patrolling between venues and major transport hubs and on hand to speak to concert goers.

    This initiative forms part of a broader strategy to tackle VAWG in London, including the Met’s V100 project which uses data to track and target the most harmful offenders. Since its launch the programme has more than doubled the risk of arrest for the most harmful VAWG suspects compared to before the initiative existed with around three quarters of those on the V100 stack are accused of rape and multiple sexual assaults, as well as murder.

    The level of risk is assessed using crime reports alongside a tool which measures the seriousness of harm to victims, known as the Cambridge Crime Harm Index. 


    Deputy Assistant Commissioner Ben Russell, who leads the Met’s V100 initiative and is also the lead officer for concerts this summer, said:  

    “Every woman and girl has the right to feel safe, whether walking home, using public transport, or enjoying a night out at a concert. Yet too many still don’t.  The Met is determined to change that.

    “This summer we are working closer than ever with stadium management and major event organisers to help keep the public safe. Dedicated VAWG patrols are taking place at a number of concerts throughout the summer, with officers trained to spot predatory men in crowds and taken action to prevent violence before it happens.”

    Deputy Mayor for Policing and Crime, Kaya Comer-Schwartz, said:   

    “Women and girls deserve to be safe and feel safe wherever they are in the capital and I welcome this action by the Met at summer concerts to prevent violent behaviour, support those in need and take swift action against perpetrators.   

    “The Met’s V100 work, made possible by City Hall funding, is transforming the way they tackle violence against women and girls, ensuring perpetrators who pose the greatest risk are arrested and convicted – protecting victims from the worst offenders and making our streets safer. Putting specially trained officers at these busy summer concerts is another step in the right direction. The Mayor and I will continue to support the Met to do everything possible to keep women and girls safe as part of our ongoing public health approach to tackling VAWG in all its forms to build a safer London for all.”    

    A Wembley Stadium spokesperson said: 

    “The Wembley experience is all about enjoying a moment that our guests will remember forever.  

    “We are expecting around 3 million people to attend our concerts this summer – the majority of whom will be young women and girls. 

    “All of them should be able to attend without any fear or worry and be able to remember that moment for all the right reasons.”

    The Met is also investing in new tools and approaches, including:  

    • Rapid Video Response pilots to improve victim engagement;  
    • The Stalking Threat Assessment Centre to better assess and manage risks;  
    • Enhanced training for over 20,000 frontline officers to strengthen the initial police response to domestic abuse, stalking, and sexual violence.  
    • An additional 565 officers and staff have been drafted into public protection roles across the force aimed at enhancing our domestic abuse, rape and sexual offence investigation team to enable a better service for victims.   
    • The use of Live Facial Recognition to locate those wanted for offences and those subject to court orders, including sexual harm prevention orders.   

    This summer’s visible patrols are just one part of a wider, long-term commitment to rebuild trust, prevent harm, and protect the women and girls of London.  

    Members of the public are encouraged to speak to officers at the concerts and raise any concerns. Always call 999 in an emergency. 

    MIL Security OSI –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Security: Appeal for information after innocent man shot dead

    Source: United Kingdom London Metropolitan Police

    Detectives are appealing for information three months after an innocent man was fatally shot in Tottenham, in what detectives believe is a case of mistaken identity.

    Mahad Abdi Mohamed, a much-loved son, brother and dad, died of a gunshot wound to the head following a shooting in Waverley Road, Tottenham at 20:45hrs on Thursday, 20 March.

    He had spent the evening shortly before the shooting with his friend at their home. They were breaking their fast outside when a stolen Mitsubishi Outlander approached and the suspects inside opened fire, striking Mahad multiple times.

    Multiple emergency services responded and tried to save him, but he later sadly died at hospital.

    His friend, another man, aged 26, was treated in hospital for a non-life-changing gunshot wound to the leg.

    The investigation so far has led officers to believe whoever killed Mahad set out to hurt someone else in a pre-meditated and targeted attack.

    Four men were arrested on suspicion of murder in March and April. They were questioned and released on bail pending further investigations.

    Detective Chief Inspector Rebecca Woodsford, leading the Met’s investigation, said:

    “This tragic event, and Mahad’s death, has had a profound impact on the community and all those who loved him. Someone out there knows what happened. And that person, or people, must come forward.

    “Regardless of how small you think your information is, please share it with us. It could be the missing link we need to secure justice for Mahad and his family.

    “We are interested in hearing from those who saw anything suspicious in Waverley Road, Tottenham on the night of Thursday, 20 March, or witnessed a silver Mitsubishi Outlander, nearby just before 20:45hrs. This car was stolen and used to drive the suspects to and from the scene. It was found burnt-out in Runcorn Close, N17, the following morning.

    “We understand how daunting the information sharing process can be, but there are lots of ways to talk either myself or my investigation team and we can ensure you will be supported every step of the way”

    Appealing to the general public for information, Mahad’s youngest sister added:

    “To stay silent is to be complicit. To stay silent is to let a grieving mother suffer in confusion. To stay silent is to let a little boy grow up not knowing what happened to his father.

    “If you know something and you haven’t come forward, please think about that. Think about a family that cannot begin to heal because the truth is still hiding in the shadows. My brother deserves better. He deserves justice.”

    Anyone who can help is asked to call police on 101, quoting 7426/20MAR. If you wish to remain anonymous you can contact Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111, or visit the Major Incident Police Portal.

    MIL Security OSI –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Nuclear scientists  have long been targets in covert ops – Israel has brought that policy out of the shadows

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Jenna Jordan, Associate Professor of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology

    Portraits of Iranian military generals and nuclear scientists killed in Israel’s June 13, 2025, attack are displayed on a sign as a plume of heavy smoke and fire rise from an oil refinery in southern Tehran Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images

    At least 14 nuclear scientists are believed to be among those killed in Israel’s Operation Rising Lion, launched on June 13, 2025, ostensibly to destroy or degrade Iran’s nuclear program and military capabilities.

    Deliberately targeting scientists in this way aims to disrupt Iran’s knowledge base and continuity in nuclear expertise. Among those assassinated were Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, a theoretical physicist and head of Iran’s Islamic Azad University, and Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani, a nuclear engineer who led Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization.

    Collectively, these experts in physics and engineering were potential successors to Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, widely regarded as the architect of the Iranian nuclear program, who was assassinated in a November 2020 attack many blame on Israel.

    As two political scientists writing a book about state targeting of scientists as a counterproliferation tool, we understand well that nuclear scientists have been targeted since the nuclear age began. We have gathered data on nearly 100 instances of what we call “scientist targeting” from 1944 through 2025.

    The most recent assassination campaign against Iranian scientists is different from many of the earlier episodes in a few key ways. Israel’s recent attack targeted multiple nuclear experts and took place simultaneously with military force to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, air defenses and energy infrastructure. Also, unlike previous covert operations, Israel immediately claimed responsibility for the assassinations.

    But our research indicates that targeting scientists may not be effective for counterproliferation. While removing individual expertise may delay nuclear acquisition, targeting alone is unlikely to destroy a program outright and could even increase a country’s desire for nuclear weapons. Further, targeting scientists may trigger blowback given concerns regarding legality and morality.

    A policy with a long history

    Targeting nuclear scientists began during World War II when Allied and Soviet forces raced to capture Nazi scientists, degrade Adolf Hitler’s ability to build a nuclear bomb and use their expertise to advance the U.S. and Soviet nuclear programs.

    In our data set, we classified “targeting” as cases in which scientists were captured, threatened, injured or killed as nations tried to prevent adversaries from acquiring weapons of mass destruction. Over time, at least four countries have targeted scientists working on nine national nuclear programs.

    The United States and Israel have allegedly carried out the most attacks on nuclear scientists. But the United Kingdom and Soviet Union have also been behind such attacks.

    Meanwhile, scientists working for the Egyptian, Iranian and Iraqi nuclear programs have been the most frequent targets since 1950. Since 2007 and prior to the current Israeli operation, 10 scientists involved in the Iranian nuclear program were killed in attacks. Other countries’ nationals have also been targeted: In 1980, Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service, allegedly bombed Italian engineer Mario Fiorelli’s home and his firm, SNIA Techint, as a warning to Europeans involved in the Iraqi nuclear project.

    Given this history, the fact that Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program is not itself surprising. Indeed, it has been a strategic goal of successive Israeli prime ministers to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and experts had been warning of the increased likelihood of an Israeli military operation since mid-2024, due to regional dynamics and Iranian nuclear development.

    The wrecked cars in which four of Iran’s nuclear scientists were assassinated in recent years are displayed on the grounds of a museum in Tehran in 2014.
    Scott Peterson/Getty Images

    By then, the balance of power in the Middle East had changed dramatically. Israel systematically degraded the leadership and infrastructure of Iranian proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. It later destroyed Iranian air defenses around Tehran and near key nuclear installations. The subsequent fall of Syria’s Assad regime cost Tehran another long-standing ally. Together, these developments have significantly weakened Iran, leaving it vulnerable to external attack and stripped of its once-feared proxy network, which had been expected to retaliate on its behalf in the event of hostilities.

    With its proxy “axis of resistance” defanged and conventional military capacity degraded, Iranian leadership may have thought that expanding its enrichment capability was its best bet going forward.

    And in the months leading up to Israel’s recent attack, Iran expanded its nuclear production capacity, moving beyond 60% uranium enrichment, a technical step just short of weapons-grade material. During Donald Trump’s first term, the president withdrew the U.S. from a multilateral nonproliferation agreement aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program. After being reelected, Trump appeared to change tack by pursuing new diplomacy with Iran, but those talks have so far failed to deliver an agreement – and may be put on hold for the foreseeable future amid the war.

    Most recently, the International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors declared Iran in non-compliance with its nuclear-nonproliferation obligations. In response, Iran announced it was further expanding its enrichment capacity by adding advanced centrifuge technology and a third enrichment site.

    Even if the international community anticipated the broader attack on Iran, characteristics of the targeting itself are surprising. Historically, states have covertly targeted individual scientists. But the recent multiple-scientist attack occurred openly, with Israel taking responsibility, publicly indicating the attacks’ purpose. Further, while it is not new for a country to use multiple counter-proliferation tools against an adversary over time, that Israel is using both preventive military force against infrastructure and targeting scientists at once is atypical.

    Additionally, such attacks against scientists are historically lower tech and low cost, with death or injury stemming from gunmen, car bombs or accidents. In fact, Abbasi – who was killed in the most recent attacks – survived a 2010 car bombing in Tehran. There are outliers, however, including the Fakhrizadeh assassination, which featured a remotely operated machine gun smuggled into Iranian territory.

    Israel’s logic in going after scientists

    Why target nuclear scientists?

    In foreign policy, there are numerous tools available if one state aims to prevent another state from acquiring nuclear weapons. Alongside targeting scientists, there are sanctions, diplomacy, cyberattacks and military force.

    Targeting scientists may remove critical scientific expertise and impose costs that increase the difficulty of building nuclear weapons. Proponents argue that targeting these experts may undermine a state’s efforts, deter it from continuing nuclear developments and signal to others the perils of supporting nuclear proliferation.

    Countries that target scientists therefore believe that doing so is an effective way to degrade an adversary’s nuclear program. Indeed, the Israel Defense Forces described the most recent attacks as “a significant blow to the regime’s ability to acquire weapons of mass destruction.”

    Posters featuring images of Iranian nuclear scientists are displayed in Tehran, Iran, on June 14, 2025.
    Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images

    Despite Israel’s focus on scientists as sources of critical knowledge, there may be thousands more working inside Iran, calling into question the efficacy of targeting them. Further, there are legal, ethical and moral concerns over targeting scientists.

    Moreover, it is a risky option that may fail to disrupt an enemy nuclear program while sparking public outrage and calls for retaliation. This is especially the case if scientists, often regarded as civilians, are elevated as martyrs.

    Targeting campaigns may, as a result, reinforce domestic support for a government, which could then redouble efforts toward nuclear development.

    Regardless of whether targeting scientists is an effective counter-proliferation tool, it has been around since the start of the nuclear age – and will likely persist as part of the foreign policy toolkit for states aiming to prevent proliferation. In the case of the current Israeli conflict with Iran and its targeting of nuclear scientists, we expect the tactic to continue for the duration of the war and beyond.

    Rachel Whitlark is a nonresident senior fellow in the Forward Defense practice of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.

    Jenna Jordan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Nuclear scientists  have long been targets in covert ops – Israel has brought that policy out of the shadows – https://theconversation.com/nuclear-scientists-have-long-been-targets-in-covert-ops-israel-has-brought-that-policy-out-of-the-shadows-259263

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Russia: Dmitry Grigorenko: Russia has entered an active phase of implementing artificial intelligence

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: Government of the Russian Federation – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

    The speed of implementation of artificial intelligence, interaction between business and government, timeliness of regulation, as well as international cooperation were discussed at the plenary session on AI at SPIEF-2025 with the participation of Deputy Prime Minister – Chief of the Government Staff Dmitry Grigorenko.

    As Dmitry Grigorenko stated, Russia has entered an active phase of implementing artificial intelligence. AI-based solutions increase the efficiency of government agencies and improve the quality of services provided, opening up additional opportunities, including in public administration and the social sphere, from medicine to the budget process. Thus, the compulsory medical insurance program already includes diagnostic services using AI, and an intelligent agent is being integrated into the Electronic Budget system in test mode to speed up the budget process.

    When asked what the government is doing to speed up the implementation of AI, the Deputy Prime Minister – Chief of the Government Staff spoke about the work on developing the necessary infrastructure within the framework of the national project “Data Economy”, training specialized personnel, as well as replicating the best practices of the regions on a national scale. At the same time, he emphasized that for success, the government and business need to combine efforts in these areas, without dividing areas of responsibility.

    “We approach the issue of implementing AI technology systematically. For example, all digital development programs for regions and federal agencies have a mandatory clause – to implement an AI-based solution. All programs are very specific, with units of measurement of efficiency. At the same time, everyone determines for themselves the required number of such services – for their tasks. AI is a tool. With its help, we solve a very specific problem each time. Plus, we select existing best practices and replicate them taking into account the experience already acquired,” commented Dmitry Grigorenko.

    As Chairman of the Board of PJSC Sberbank German Gref noted, the role of the state is critically important: from investments to education and total enlightenment of “where we are going”. At the same time, German Gref noted that unique conditions have already been created in Russia that allow the development of technology. Including due to the existing local experimental legal regimes.

    “Right now, in my opinion, there is a consensus. There is moral regulation – the code of ethics of artificial intelligence, to which all the largest developers in Russia have joined. Among the signatories are over 900 companies, including foreign ones. There is technical regulation. And there is incentive regulation, for example, an experimental regime for the implementation of artificial intelligence has been created in Moscow. We cannot rush with regulation, so as not to negatively influence developers,” said German Gref.

    According to the Deputy Speaker of the State Duma of the Federal Assembly Vladislav Davankov, sooner or later any industry faces issues of protecting the rights of citizens and equal access to the results of technological development.

    “In difficult situations, people turn to the state for protection. That is why regulation is necessary. But it must be smart and created as a public agreement, in dialogue with business. We must develop these rules together,” commented Vladislav Davankov.

    The Minister of Communications and Informatization of the Republic of Belarus Kirill Zalessky and the Minister of Digital Development, Innovation and Aerospace Industry of the Republic of Kazakhstan Zhaslan Madiyev also took part in the discussion.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Russia: Alexander Novak: Russian fuel and energy complex has become more competitive and technologically advanced

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: Government of the Russian Federation – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

    Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak spoke at the panel session “The World Fuel and Energy Market in Search of a Balance between the Interests of Producers and Consumers” at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. The session was also attended by OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghaith, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey Alparslan Bayraktar, Minister of International Economic Relations under the Government of the Republic of Serbia, Chairman of the Serbian People’s Party Nenad Popovic, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Economic Relations of Hungary Peter Szijjarto, and Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Uzbekistan Jamshid Khodjaev.

    Alexander Novak outlined the vector of Russia’s current strategy in the current conditions of the global energy market and spoke about the key steps being taken to ensure the sustainable development of the country’s oil and gas sector.

    “The oil and gas industry is key to the Russian economy. It is a driver for investment, the economy, new inventions, and the implementation of modern research and development work. Over the past 20 years, our oil and gas industry has made a huge leap. Firstly, oil production has increased from 300 to over 500 million tons per year (80%). We have new production regions – we have begun to extract raw materials in Eastern Siberia, on the shelf. We have developed and learned to apply TRIZ technologies. This is important, since the lion’s share of future reserves are reserves that are located at greater depths, with more difficult-to-extract layers,” said Alexander Novak.

    The Deputy Prime Minister added that the issue of technological development is key today.

    “Despite numerous sanctions from unfriendly countries and the desire to stop the development of the Russian economy, including through the fuel and energy complex, we see that our industry has not only maintained its production indicators, but has also survived and become an order of magnitude more efficient. It has become more competitive and technologically advanced. The sanctions have forced us to ensure import substitution, and our own developments have appeared instead of technologies that were previously purchased abroad. Our industry has been loaded, and an impetus has been given to the development of the Russian economy as a whole,” said Alexander Novak.

    He recalled that the key tasks for the development of the fuel and energy complex set by President Vladimir Putin include ensuring domestic energy security, increasing the share of high-value-added products through the development of oil and gas refining and petrochemicals, international cooperation, and the development of infrastructure for the supply of energy resources to domestic and foreign markets.

    OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghaith noted that global demand for oil is growing.

    “We see that the world’s population is growing, and by 2050, there will be 2 billion new people on the planet, and the global economy will double compared to current parameters. By 2030, half a billion people will live in new cities that will be the size of 100 St. Petersburgs. And this means heating, air conditioning, and overall growth in energy consumption. In addition, new consumers are mining and data centers. By 2050, we predict a 24 percent increase in energy consumption compared to the current level, which requires additional investment in the sector. They need to be stimulated,” said OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Gais. OPEC does not see peak demand for oil even by 2050.

    Turkey is already seeing both gas consumption and the share of renewable energy sources grow. And the country’s main goal is to ensure the security and availability of energy supplies. “We are diversifying our portfolio by investing in renewable energy sources. By 2035, we want to quadruple the capacity of solar and wind energy components. We have ambitious plans for nuclear energy – to increase its production to at least 20 GW by 2050. To do this, we need four reactors, and we are working with Rosatom. There is also a focus on small-scale generation and a desire to build another 5 GW station,” said Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar about plans for energy development in the country.

    According to him, Turkey has also begun developing offshore fields, which already supply energy to 4 million households in the country. By 2028, this number is planned to increase fourfold. Turkey is searching for oil and gas in developing countries, and is also investing in its own infrastructure and preparing to create large-scale capacities for gas export to Europe.

    “Hungary will continue energy cooperation with the Russian Federation, because it is very important for us to keep prices low for all our citizens, for our families. Without Russian energy resources, this is impossible for us,” said Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, commenting on the European Commission’s plan to have EU countries abandon Russian energy resources by 2027. In his opinion, Brussels and Kyiv have set the goal of cutting off Europe from the supplier of cheap and affordable oil and gas, which Russia has been for Hungary for many years. At the same time, the European Commission does not offer any alternative in the form of other equally reliable and inexpensive sources of energy resources.

    The participants in the discussion agreed that in the context of growing energy consumption in the world, it is necessary to diversify its sources and international cooperation for the development and reliable supply of both traditional and alternative types of energy resources. This is especially important in a period of geopolitical instability and the aggravation of local conflicts in a number of regions of the world.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Russia: Dmitry Chernyshenko: In recent years, the strategic partnership between Russia and Cuba has only strengthened

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: Government of the Russian Federation – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

    20 hours ago

    At SPIEF-2025, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko welcomed the participants of the first high-level business dialogue “Russia – Cuba”.

    “Our countries are linked by strong, time-tested, friendly ties. President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and President of Cuba Miguel Diaz-Canel have repeatedly emphasized the importance of strategic partnership. In recent years, it has only strengthened.

    Diplomatic, cultural and trade-economic relations are actively developing. Mutual trade turnover has grown by more than 13%. Last year alone, we achieved significant results in tourism, the agro-industrial complex and education.

    Cuba was visited by 160 thousand Russian tourists, which is a record figure. The number of Cubans who visited Russia also increased by 50%. Deliveries of domestic cars to Cuba have resumed. A project to process Russian wheat at a Cuban flour mill is being successfully implemented. Cooperation in the fields of healthcare, education and science is expanding. Joint projects to exchange experience in medicine have been launched, and a Center for Targeted Training of Specialists for Energy and Electronics is operating.

    Our strategic partnership in various areas will continue to develop. Therefore, the St. Petersburg Forum is an excellent platform for strengthening cooperation and finding new points of contact.

    I am confident that through joint efforts we will achieve great success for the benefit of the economies of Russia and Cuba. Friends, I wish you fruitful work and productive dialogue on the sidelines of the forum!” the Deputy Prime Minister noted.

    During the event, topics of development of the Caribbean state’s tourism industry were raised, including its digitalization, restoration of the sugar industry, achieving Cuba’s food sovereignty and much more.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

    June 20, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Russia: Alexander Novak: We are witnessing a global transformation in economic development

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: Government of the Russian Federation – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

    Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak took part in the opening session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

    The Minister of Energy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, the President of the New Development Bank of BRICS Dilma Rousseff, the President and Secretary General of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Lazar Comanescu, and the Deputy Prime Minister of Vietnam Nguyen Chi Dung also shared their vision of the development of the global economy and the prospects for international cooperation.

    Alexander Novak noted that the main vector of development of the global economy in the next decade will be concentrated in countries where the birth rate is growing today and which are gaining new positions in global markets.

    “The modern world has entered an era of fundamental changes. We are witnessing a global transformation in terms of economic development. Large countries of Southeast Asia such as China and India have become global participants in the world market in recent decades, the main drivers of demand and supply of goods to global world markets. Countries of South Asia and Africa are increasingly asserting themselves. They have a high birth rate and a still low level of urbanization. And this is the potential that will change the landscape of the global economy in the next decade. Growth will no longer be concentrated in the countries of Europe and North America, which are gradually losing their positions in the global economy, but in the BRICS countries and states that want to join the association,” said Alexander Novak. He added that since the 2000s, the share of the BRICS countries in the world economy was 22%, and today it has increased to 36%, which means growth of more than 50%. At the same time, the share of the G7 countries has decreased from 45% to 30% over the same period.

    Minister of Energy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud spoke about the main mechanism for achieving balance in the global oil market. “The OPEC deal has proven itself to be an effective tool. OPEC has managed to achieve tremendous success in ensuring market stability and has become, in fact, the central regulator of oil markets,” Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud noted.

    He also emphasized that the governments of Saudi Arabia and Russia are working to create favorable conditions for those wishing to invest in the economies of Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation on the basis of various formats, including joint ventures. The Saudi Arabian authorities understand the situation and are willing to find ways to overcome existing restrictions.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

    June 20, 2025
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