NewzIntel.com

Category: Fisheries

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Minister Rishworth speech at Inclusion Australia 70th Anniversary Dinner

    Source: Ministers for Social Services

    E&OE

    Good evening everyone.

    It’s my pleasure to be joining you tonight as we celebrate 70 years of Inclusion Australia.

    I would like to begin by acknowledging the Traditional Owners of the lands on which we meet, the Wurundjeri people, and pay my respects to elders past and present.

    I would also like to acknowledge:

    • Felicity Crowther (Chair of the Inclusion Australia Board and Executive Director of the South Australian Council on Intellectual Disability (SACID)), and
    • Catherine McAlpine (CEO of Inclusion Australia)
    • Those here from other organisations who have contributed to the success of Inclusion Australia
    • Advocates in the room
    • And particularly people with intellectual disability and their families and carers

    Tonight is an opportunity to reflect on how far we have come as a nation to create a more inclusive society for people with intellectual disability, and Inclusion Australia’s critical role in this-  but also to recognise how far we still have to go.  

    As an organisation whose focus is about increasing the voices of people with intellectual disability and supporting them to represent themselves – Inclusion Australia has, and continues, to play a critical role in this space.

    Tonight is a night of celebration!

    I would like to wish a very happy birthday to Inclusion Australia and congratulate you on 70 years of working alongside the disability community to amplify the voices of people with intellectual disability.

    What began in 1954 as a group of family and friends of people with disability has since grown to become the national peak body for intellectual disability, and one of Australia’s longest-standing disability advocacy organisations.

    What you have achieved over the past 7 decades has been nothing short of remarkable.

    And what’s more is that you’ve ensured people with intellectual disability have been at the centre of everything you do.

    From helping to steer the introduction of Australia’s first disability discrimination laws, to what you do now in advocating for inclusive education and employment and supported decision making, you’ve truly been pioneers and built strong relationships across communities and with Government to achieve change.

    Tonight, I want to talk about the importance of the advocacy work organisations like Inclusion Australia do for our community.

    Inclusion Australia has worked tirelessly to raise the profile of the issues that are important to people with intellectual disability – ensuring that your perspectives and ideas are incorporated into Government policy responses.

    Whether this is about making sure people with disability can make their own decisions with the right support, reducing the health inequalities experienced by people with intellectual disability, or making mainstream services and the broader community more inclusive and accessible – Inclusion Australia play a key role in educating the Government, organisations and businesses about the barriers people with intellectual disability can face.

    But importantly, Inclusion Australia provide ideas and solutions to break down these barriers, challenge stereotypes and build the confidence of organisations and services to be truly inclusive.

    And in undertaking your work, people with intellectual disability are at the centre of driving change – with people with intellectual disability leading Government and community engagement and education.

    We know how important advocacy is in promoting the rights and freedoms of people with disability.

    And that is why our Government has recognised Inclusion Australia as a standalone national peak organisation – and this does need to be recognised because you play a vital role to ensure people with intellectual disability have their needs met and can make choices about the way they want to live their lives.

    In the past, people with intellectual disability have experienced really significant exclusion and exploitation and haven’t been included in conversations about the things that impact them – and unfortunately these experiences are still too common. As Minister for Social Services, I am committed to working alongside Inclusion Australia and people with intellectual disability to change this.

    One of the ways our Government is supporting change is through increasing funding to Inclusion Australia as a Disability Representative Organisation.

    But we also know that there are other important ways we can empower people with intellectual disability to self-advocate and support social connections.

    I’ve heard many times how important peer support is for people with intellectual disability and that connecting with people like them to get advice and tips and ideas helps them to break down barriers that exist across society so they can live independently and fully participate in society.

    I often hear it’s about the “I get you” factor that really makes a difference.

    Everyone here knows how important lived experience is and that is why we are investing in peer support and self-advocacy activities for people with intellectual disability.

    These programs are an important way we help people with disability and their families to build knowledge, skills and confidence and connect with their local communities.

    Because we want to make Australia more inclusive and for each Australian with disability to be supported to reach their goals.

    We know that change can only happen when the voices, perspectives and ideas of the people with intellectual disability are a part of the conversation.

    And we will continue to listen to Inclusion Australia to understand how we can best work together to create a more inclusive society – because inclusion creates more opportunities and benefits everyone.

    One area that for too long people with intellectual disability haven’t been given equal opportunities is in employment. For too long supported employment has been seen as the only option available.

    And that is why creating more opportunities for people with disability in employment is a key area I have focused on since becoming Minister for Social Services.

    And I share this focus with Inclusion Australia – who have worked consistently and constructively across the sector and with government to improve employment outcomes for people with intellectual disability and provide more opportunities in open employment and career progression.

    As a Government we want to make sure people with disability, including those with intellectual disability understand the different employment options available to them and understand their rights at work.

    We are doing this by providing employment-related advocacy and information through a new Disability Employment Advocacy and Information Program.

    Advice about employment will be provided through group workshops and information sessions, and people will have access to individual advocacy for specific employment issues when it is needed.

    We also want to make sure there a lots of different employment pathways available for people with intellectual disability, with more opportunities to move into open employment and build careers.  Which is why we are investing in projects to evolve the supported employment sector.

    And to make sure people with intellectual disability have more opportunities to succeed in employment of their choice, we have expanded eligibility under our new specialist disability employment program that starts in July next year so that volunteers and people who can work less than 8 hours per week can participate.

    Because people deserve to be able to take advantage of a diverse range of opportunities and should not be excluded from our specialist disability employment program – because that is not inclusive and that’s why we are changing this.

    And this is a key change I know that Inclusion Australia has been advocating for, for many years – as one of the ways to create more pathways and opportunities for open employment.

    And I look forward to continuing to work with you as we reform the employment system for people with disability.

    In all of these areas we have been working with Inclusion Australia and their member organisation, who have played a big role in creating change for people with intellectual disability in all parts of Australia.

    I join with you in celebrating the work Inclusion Australia does to support people with intellectual disability to speak up and be heard.

    Thank you for this critical work you do to create a better future for people with intellectual disability.

    I look forward to the positive changes we will make together.

    And I hope you all enjoy the rest of the evening, especially on the dancefloor.

    MIL OSI News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: ICG implements preventive measures in view of Cyclone Dana’s likely landfall along West Bengal & Odisha coasts

    Source: Government of India

    ICG implements preventive measures in view of Cyclone Dana’s likely landfall along West Bengal & Odisha coasts  

    Vessels & aircraft strategically positioned; Weather warnings & safety advisories being broadcast; Disaster relief teams on standby

    Posted On: 23 OCT 2024 2:49PM by PIB Delhi

    As Cyclone Dana is forecast to make landfall on October 24-25, 2024 along the coasts of West Bengal and Odisha, Indian Coast Guard (ICG) Region (North-East) has implemented a series of preventive measures to safeguard lives and property at sea. The ICG has been closely monitoring the situation and has taken proactive steps to ensure preparedness for dealing with any emergency arising from the cyclone’s impact. 

    ICG has tasked ships, aircraft and Remote Operating Stations at West Bengal and Odisha to broadcast regular weather warnings and safety advisories to fishermen and mariners. These alerts are being transmitted continuously to all fishing vessels, urging them to return to shore immediately and seek safe shelter.

    The ICG has mobilised its vessels and aircraft, positioning them strategically to respond swiftly to any emergency situation at sea. Additionally, ICG personnel are working in coordination with local administrations and disaster management authorities to ensure a coordinated and effective response.

    Fishing communities along the coastline have been informed through various channels, including village heads, to avoid venturing into the sea until the cyclone passes. The ICG is on high alert, with its dedicated disaster relief teams and assets ready to provide assistance, rescue & relief operations.

     ***

    SR/Savvy/KB

    (Release ID: 2067301) Visitor Counter : 65

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: RN-Yuganskneftegaz Releases Over 9 Million Fry of Valuable Fish Species into Yugra’s Rivers

    Source: Rosneft

    Headline: RN-Yuganskneftegaz Releases Over 9 Million Fry of Valuable Fish Species into Yugra’s Rivers

    RN-Yuganskneftegaz, Rosneft’s largest oil production asset, continues to implement a large-scale programme to preserve biodiversity and restore aquatic bioresources. The enterprise released into the water bodies of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug of  Yugra more than 9 million fry of valuable species of commercial fish, including more than 700 thousand fry of the red-listed Siberian sturgeon and sterlet.

    Conserving biodiversity and ecosystems in the regions of operation is one of the priorities of “Rosneft-2030” strategy. The release of young fish of valuable species is carried out annually.

    On the order of oil workers, the young fish are raised by special fish breeding organisations, which create the best environmental conditions for the fry: temperature regime, nutrition and water quality to ensure maximum survival of the young fish after release.

    The release of young fish was supervised by a commission, which includes representatives of the Ugra Nature Supervision Agency, the Nizhneobsk Territorial Department of the Federal Agency for Fishing and Conservation of Aquatic Bioresources, the Russian Federal Research Institute Of Fisheries and Oceanography, and the Environmental Protection Department of RN-Yuganskneftegaz.

    Release of young fish is an important step in the conservation and restoration of aquatic bioresources. It allows increasing the number of valuable fish species in the rivers of the Ob-Irtysh basin and ensuring sustainable population growth in the future.

    Reference:

    RN-Yuganskneftegaz is a key production asset of Rosneft Oil Company. The enterprise is conducting geological exploration and field development at 40 licence areas with a total area exceeding 21,000 km2 in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District—Yugra. The accumulated output of RN-Yuganskneftegaz has exceeded 2.7 billion tonnes of oil since the start of commercial operation.

    The company has been participating in the artificial reproduction of aquatic bioresources since 2019 and has released more than 288 million fry of valuable fish species into the water bodies of Ugra.

    Rosneft
    Information Division
    August 29, 2020

    Keywords: Environmental news 2024

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Global: As more Americans go ‘no contact’ with their parents, they live out a dilemma at the heart of Shakespeare’s ‘King Lear’

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jeanette Tran, Associate Professor of English, Drake University

    Losing a connection to your family, intentionally or not, is tragic. catscandotcom/E+ via Getty Images

    Is blood thicker than water? Should family always come first?

    These clichés about the importance of family abound, despite the recognition that familial relations are oftentimes hard, if not downright dysfunctional.

    But over the past few years, a discussion has emerged about a somewhat taboo move: cutting ties altogether with family members deemed “toxic.”

    Called going “no contact,” this form of estrangement usually involves adult children cutting ties with their parents. It might happen after years of abuse or when a parent disapproves of a child who has come out as LGBTQ+. Or it might be spurred by political or religious differences. Even Vice President Kamala Harris has been mostly estranged from her father since her parents’ divorce.

    The “no contact” movement has its proponents and detractors.

    Those in favor say people should disentangle from unhealthy relationships without shame, and that family should be held to the same standards as friends and romantic partners.

    Those against say the bar for what constitutes familial trauma has become too low, and that some kids who cut off all contact are being selfish.

    At the heart of the debate over the ethics of estrangement is a cultural attachment to the idea of family. The field of family estrangement is still in its early stages, but discussions of the collapsed parent-child relationship – its sources, its ethics, its consequences – can be found in literature across history. As I’ve encountered more articles, forums and social media posts devoted to family estrangement, I can’t help but see connections to Shakespeare’s “King Lear,” which I teach to my students as a tragedy about dysfunctional families.

    The tragedy features characters who are cast out by their families, and while the work is over 400 years old, it offers uncanny insight into the logic of modern family estrangement.

    Early modern family

    In Shakespeare’s time – the English early modern era, which spanned from the beginning of the 16th century to the start of the 18th century – Protestantism reinforced the idea that people had special obligations to their kin.

    As the English Puritan preacher John Foxe wrote in “The Book of Martyrs,” “Among all the affections of nature, there is none that is so deeply graved in a father’s mind, as the love and tender affection towards his children.”

    In Foxe’s teaching, children were blessings from God who required nurturing, spiritual guidance and material support from their parents. Children, in turn, were obliged to honor and obey their parents who cared for them.

    While this sounds simple enough, the early modern family was no less prone to dysfunction than the modern family.

    Just like today, parent-child relationships were dynamic and evolved across the life span of the parents. As historian Ilana Krausman Ben-Amos argues, the family bond was not sustained by adhering to God’s commands, but through giving and reciprocation that was asymmetrical.

    Parents could invest a lot into their children and get very little in return, and vice versa. Due to shorter life expectancy, many parents did not live to see their children come of age, and if they did, children rarely earned enough to pay their parents back for the cost of raising them. Thus, children might reciprocate in less material forms, such as through offering affection.

    When a parent died, the children might receive some form of inheritance, but this was largely determined by class status, gender and the order of birth.

    Shakespeare’s characters go ‘no contact’

    “King Lear” features two storylines. Each relates to the disintegration of the family.

    In ‘King Lear,’ Edgar cuts his family off after his father, Gloucester, disavows him.
    Heritage Images/Hulton Archive via Getty Images

    The first plot involves Gloucester and his two sons, Edgar and Edmund. Edmund is a bastard, which means when Gloucester dies, his legitimate brother, Edgar, will inherit everything. To get his revenge, Edmund forges a letter in which Edgar reveals plans to murder Gloucester to expedite his inheritance. Once Gloucester sees the letter, he writes Edgar off as a villain. Feeling betrayed, Edgar assumes a new identity as a beggar and goes no-contact with his family.

    In the second plot, King Lear attempts to divide his kingdom among his daughters. Because it is impossible to equally divvy up cities, towns and villages, he invents a contest: Each daughter will give a speech articulating their love for their father. He’ll award the best parts of the kingdom to the daughter who does the finest job stroking his ego.

    Lear expects Cordelia, his favorite, to outshine her sisters. But she refuses to play along and instead calls him out for his vanity. Feeling disrespected, Lear disinherits Cordelia. With no money, she’s forced to marry the first man who will take her and moves to France.

    In these family dramas, the parents are unfair, even vindictive, toward their children. But the conflict is still compelling and relatable to readers today because so many families are characterized by inequality.

    The favorite child, the preferred parent and the inheritance dispute are as timeless to families as birthday parties and funerals.

    Right and wrong get muddied

    Deception inspires Gloucester’s disavowal and disinheritance of Edgar. And, yes, Edmund’s scheme to destroy Edgar and Gloucester’s relationship is diabolical. But at the same time, Gloucester’s decision to throw away his decades-long relationship with his son over a letter – phony or not – seems rash.

    Was Edgar right to flee from his father? Or could something have been done to save the relationship?

    Cordelia is correct that Lear is vain for expecting his daughters to compete for their inheritance. At the same time, complimenting her father seems like a small price to pay for an entire kingdom.

    Is Cordelia acting like a spoiled brat by refusing to honor and obey her father? Or is she doing him a favor by calling out his unbecoming behavior?

    Shakespeare doesn’t offer us any clear answers to these questions; he just asks readers to wade in the complexity of them and experience the unique grief that comes from watching a family fall apart over something that maybe could have been avoided.

    No envy for the estranged

    No one gets a happy ending in “King Lear” – not the children who reject their parents, and most certainly not the parents, who need their children to protect them and care for them in old age.

    Edmund’s grief over his bastard status begets the grief he brings to Gloucester and Edgar. For failing to see the truth of Edgar’s innocence, Gloucester is physically blinded by one of Edmund’s unwitting co-conspirators, a punishment he accepts. When Edgar reunites with Gloucester, his eyes fill with tears as he witnesses his father’s physical suffering. Before Gloucester dies, Edgar asks his father for a blessing.

    Even though Lear cut off contact with Cordelia, she still returns to England once she learns her sisters have thrown Lear out onto the streets with nothing but the clothes on his back. The sisters come off as villains, but one could also see their abandoning Lear as karmic retribution. When Lear reunites with Cordelia, he begs for her forgiveness, suggesting he recognizes his failures, and she begs for his, recognizing her enduring love for him despite his faults.

    Cordelia comforts her father, King Lear, after he’s been betrayed by his other daughters.
    Universal History Archive/Getty Images

    Then and now, family estrangement often leads to loneliness, along with social stigma.

    Parents can be ashamed to say their children no longer speak to them. People who are estranged from their parents speak of the impulse to share milestones with family, but fear eroding the boundaries they’ve worked so hard to maintain.

    Just like in “King Lear,” not having a family also means being economically vulnerable: It remains difficult to get a loan or lease as a young adult without a co-signer.

    The advantages of belonging to a family are so obvious that losing that affiliation, intentionally or not, is tragic. “King Lear” ends with almost all the characters dying, but because this is a play – a fiction, a fantasy – they get to ask for and receive forgiveness before the curtain closes.

    Real life doesn’t usually work like that, nor should it be expected to. If “King Lear” and Kamala Harris’ estrangement from her father make anything clear, it is that no amount of money, power or threat of bad publicity can fully protect a family from dysfunction and disintegration.

    Jeanette Tran does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. As more Americans go ‘no contact’ with their parents, they live out a dilemma at the heart of Shakespeare’s ‘King Lear’ – https://theconversation.com/as-more-americans-go-no-contact-with-their-parents-they-live-out-a-dilemma-at-the-heart-of-shakespeares-king-lear-239916

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI USA: A Congress.gov Interview with Christy Amatos, Assistant Parliamentarian for the US Senate

    Source: US Global Legal Monitor

    Today’s Congress.gov interview is with Christy Amatos, an Assistant Parliamentarian at the United States Senate. 

    Describe your background.

    I am a native Ohioan who attended The Ohio State University and later Boston University for law school. I have been working in non-partisan legislative work for about a decade – I started my career in the Ohio General Assembly as a bill drafter. After about a year of that, I was offered the chance to move to another legislative agency that was in the process of rolling out software to fully digitize the lawmaking process. I had no background in tech but they promised me if I knew the legislative process, they would teach me everything I needed to know about being a business analyst.

    I had no idea what I was getting into but I loved it! I served as the liaison between the clerks in the Ohio Senate and House of Representatives and the team designing and developing the software. I learned so much about communication – both the unique language used in software development but also how to confront and address problems in a productive and congenial way, particularly in high stress situations. At the time, I had no idea how much those skills were going to help me in the future.

    A few years later, I joined the Office of the Senate Parliamentarian in Congress, another non-partisan role but one that was more traditionally connected to my legal training. I have been here for about six years and love it. The people who work on Capitol Hill are what make this job so great – from the Secretary of the Senate staff I work with every day to the folks at the Library of Congress who engage with us on Congress.gov.

    How would you describe your job to other people?

    The Senate Parliamentarian is kind of like the referee of the Senate. We interpret and apply the rules of the Senate on a daily basis.

    What is your role in the development of Congress.gov?

    It just so happened that when I started working in the Senate, there was an opportunity to join the Secretary of the Senate’s Congress.gov team and because of my past experience, my boss suggested I join. I was definitely excited to be able to dip my toes back into some of the type of work I had been doing in Ohio. At that time, Congress.gov was live but so was the previous resource, LIS, which was a website only accessible to Congress with some additional features that the public-facing site THOMAS did not have. There were a lot of growing pains getting Congress.gov to the point where it could provide the same level of service to users that LIS had . . . and a lot of staff who were always going to like LIS better no matter what. So we had a big challenge working to gain the trust of the internal users while also continuing to work on bettering Congress.gov.

    Fortunately, we were able to gather a great group of staff, both on the Secretary of the Senate side of things and on the Library of Congress side, and were able to get buy-in from some important, but previously uninvolved, stakeholders and then things really started to improve.

    All of that to say that I think of my role in two parts – provide important feedback on how data is used and presented from the perspective of my office, but also to help facilitate the good conversations and working relationships that are critical to the success of Congress.gov.

    One thing I do take great satisfaction in is fixing errors in really old data – we recently fixed one from five years before I was born – you know the errors have been out there for decades and maybe no one has looked at that particular piece of legislation or maybe they did not notice the misspelled word but fixing it is one more tiny step to getting Congress.gov to be as perfect as we can make it and I find that so satisfying.

    What is your favorite feature of Congress.gov?

    I think someone described the folks in my office as “power users” of Congress.gov, which sounds much more impressive than I ever actually feel on a daily basis. But I do use the search functions on Congress.gov every single day, so my favorite feature is absolutely one of the advanced searches. The command line search lets the user input search terms and connectors to tailor the results to be very specific without having to click a lot of boxes or choose from dropdown menus. There is nothing more satisfying than getting good search results on the first try!

    What is the most interesting fact you’ve learned about the legislative process while working for Congress?

    I have been working in the legislative branch for about a decade at this point, so I am not entirely sure I can pin down one in particular. Something I have started to spend time learning, however, is the history of the legislative process, and by extension, the history of the people working in the legislature.

    One of my favorite anecdotes is that before the Russell Senate Office Building was named for Richard Russell, it was just called the Senate Office Building and Senator Harry Truman would joke that his constituents could address his mail to “Harry Truman S.O.B.” and the Post Office would know where to deliver it.

    One of the important things I have learned about the legislative process is that it is made up of all of the people who have worked and served here, not just the elected members. For example, last year I read the obituary of former Senate Committee on Foreign Relations staffer Bertie Bowman and immediately went in search of his autobiography. He started working at the Capitol in the 1940s when he was 13 years old and did not fully retire until 2021. His story of service to his country is just one example of why so many people have done this work over more than two centuries and serves as an inspiration for those of us currently doing it.

    What’s something most of your co-workers do not know about you?

    This is the opposite of something people do not know about me, I am telling everyone because it makes me laugh! I just got a kitten and I named him John Quincy Catams.

    John Quincy Catams, picture courtesy of Christy Amatos.

    Subscribe to In Custodia Legis – it’s free! – to receive interesting posts drawn from the Law Library of Congress’s vast collections and our staff’s expertise in U.S., foreign, and international law.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Halloween candy binges can overload your gut microbiome – a gut doctor explains how to minimize spooking your helpful bacteria

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Christopher Damman, Associate Professor of Gastroenterology, School of Medicine, University of Washington

    It’s probably best to enjoy your Halloween spoils in moderation. Jupiterimages/The Image Bank via Getty Images

    Each October, as the days shorten and the air grows crisp, millions of Americans prepare for the beloved – and often sugar-fueled – tradition of Halloween. From jack-o’-lanterns glowing on porches to costumes ranging from the whimsical to the gory, Halloween is a time of playful scares, childhood memories and, of course, candy.

    But as the wrappers pile up and the sugar rush hits, there’s something far more sinister brewing beneath the surface: the negative effects of candy on your gut health.

    Sugar and other ingredients in Halloween treats can cast a sickly spell on the trillions of microorganisms that reside in your gut, collectively known as the gut microbiome. As a gastroenterologist and gut microbiome researcher at the University of Washington School of Medicine, I have dedicated my career to decoding the cipher of how food affects this microbial community within your gut.

    While no candy is truly healthy, some options are better for your gut than others. And there are ways you can help wake your gut from its sugar “spell” after holiday indulgence.

    Gut-busting treats

    What does all this candy do to your gut?

    In a healthy state, your gut microbiome acts like a microbial factory. It digests nutrients your body can’t – such as fiber and colorful, health-conferring plant compounds called polyphenols – and produces important molecules called metabolites that protect against infection and support brain health. It also regulates metabolism, or the transformation of food into useful components that power and grow cells.

    A balanced diet keeps your gut’s microbial cauldron churning smoothly. But the concentrated sugar, saturated fat and additives in candy can throw things into disarray by feeding inflammatory microbes that weaken your gut barrier – the protective lining that separates your microbiome from the rest of the body.

    Once the gut barrier is breached, even friendly microbes can stir up inflammation, causing health issues ranging from overweight to obesity, infections to autoimmune disease, and mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer’s.

    The food you eat shapes your gut microbes, which in turn shape your overall health.

    Sugar and inflammation impair your microbiome’s ability to digest food and regulate metabolism. Instead of producing healthy byproducts – such as butyrate from fiber and urolithin A from polyphenols – candy lacking these nutrients may trick your system into storing more fat, providing less energy for your muscles and brain.

    Too much candy can also affect your immune system. A healthy gut microbiome helps your immune system distinguish between friend and foe, reducing the risk of infections and autoimmune disorders. Sugar and inflammation undermine the microbiome’s role in training the immune system to distinguish between harmful invaders and harmless substances. Without a carefully calibrated immune system, your body may not effectively clear infections or may strongly react to its own cells.

    Neurologically, excess sweets can also affect the gut-brain axis, the two-way communication between the gut and brain. A healthy microbiome normally produces neurotransmitters and metabolites, such as serotonin and butyrate, that influence mood and cognitive performance. Sugar and inflammation adversely affects the microbiome’s role in mental health and cognitive function, contributing to depression, anxiety and memory troubles.

    The candy conundrum

    Not all Halloween treats are created equal, especially when it comes to their nutritional value and effects on gut health. Sugar-coated nuts and fruit such as honey-roasted almonds and candy apples rank among the top, offering whole food benefits just beneath the sugary coating. Packed with fiber and polyphenols, they help support gut health and healthy metabolism.

    On the opposite end of the spectrum are chewy treats such as candy corn, Skittles, Starbursts and Twizzlers. These sugar-laden confections are mostly made of high fructose corn syrup, saturated fat and additives. They can increase the unsavory bacterial species in your gut and lead to inflammation, making them one of the least healthy Halloween choices.

    Chocolate-based candies, however, stand out as a more microbiome-friendly option. While varieties such as Twix, Three Musketeers and Milky Way contain only a small amount of chocolate, pure chocolate bars – especially dark chocolate – are rich in fiber and polyphenols. In moderation, dark chocolate with at least 80% to 85% cacao may even benefit your gut microbiome and mood by encouraging beneficial bacterial species to grow.

    Candy apples usually provide a serving of fruit and nuts.
    Ryan Benyi Photography/Connect Images via Getty Images

    Chocolates with whole nuts, such as almonds or peanuts, offer a boost of fiber, protein and omega-3 fats, making them a healthier choice. Dark chocolate with nuts is best. But when sorting through Halloween treats, Peanut M&Ms, 100 Grands and Almond Joys may be better options over Rolos, Krackels and Crunches. Even candies with processed nuts, such as Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups and Butterfingers, retain small amounts of fiber and protein, making them preferable to nut-free options.

    At the bottom of the list, along with chewy sugar candies, are pure sugar candies such as lollipops, Jolly Ranchers, gummies and Smarties. These sweets lack nutritional value, and their high sugar content can contribute to the growth of unhealthy bacteria in your gut microbiome.

    In the end, all candies are high in sugar, which can be harmful when consumed in large quantities. Moderation and an otherwise balanced diet is key to enjoying Halloween treats.

    Rebalancing after indulgence

    If the microbiome is critical for health, and candy can disrupt its balance, how can you restore gut health after Halloween?

    One simple strategy is focusing on the four F’s of food: fiber, phytochemicals, unsaturated fats and fermented foods. These food components can help support gut health.

    Fiber-rich foods such as whole grains, nuts, seeds, beans, fruits and vegetables regulate digestion and nourish beneficial gut bacteria.

    Dark chocolate is a treat that may offer some health benefits.
    Wachiwit/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    Polyphenol-rich foods such as dark chocolate, berries, red grapes, green tea and extra virgin olive oil help reduce inflammation and encourage the growth of healthy gut bacteria.

    Unsaturated fats such as omega-3 fats, walnuts, chia seeds, flaxseed, avocados and fatty fish such as salmon can also support a healthy microbiome.

    Fermented foods such as sauerkraut, kimchi, yogurt, kefir and miso help replenish beneficial bacteria and restore gut balance.

    To make tracking your diet easier, consider using a food calculator to measure how well your meals align with the four F’s and microbiome friendly options. Like a virtual “spellbook,” an online tool can help ensure your food choices support your gut health and ward off the effects of sugar overload.

    As my daughters often remind me, it’s perfectly fine to indulge every now and then in a few tricks and treats. But remember, moderation is key. With a balanced diet, you’ll keep your gut healthy and strong long after the Halloween season ends.

    Christopher Damman is on the scientific advisory board at Oobli, Supergut, and One BIO.

    – ref. Halloween candy binges can overload your gut microbiome – a gut doctor explains how to minimize spooking your helpful bacteria – https://theconversation.com/halloween-candy-binges-can-overload-your-gut-microbiome-a-gut-doctor-explains-how-to-minimize-spooking-your-helpful-bacteria-240504

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI: Hanmi Reports 2024 Third Quarter Results

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    LOS ANGELES, Oct. 22, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Hanmi Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: HAFC, or “Hanmi”), the parent company of Hanmi Bank (the “Bank”), today reported financial results for the third quarter of 2024.

    Net income for the third quarter of 2024 was $14.9 million, or $0.49 per diluted share, compared with $14.5 million, or $0.48 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2024. The return on average assets for the third quarter of 2024 was 0.79% and the return on average equity was 7.55%, compared with a return on average assets of 0.77% and the return on average equity of 7.50% for the second quarter of 2024.

    CEO Commentary
    “Our third quarter results were strong, with solid performance across all key operating metrics in the third quarter,” said Bonnie Lee, President and Chief Executive Officer of Hanmi.  “Net interest margin increased five basis points to 2.74% driven by higher yields on interest-earning assets and lower funding costs. Loans grew by 2% driven by a 27% increase in loan production and total deposits were up led by 5% growth in noninterest-bearing demand deposits. These results reflect the continued success of our relationship banking model and our portfolio diversification strategy.”

    “During the quarter, we remained focused on our disciplined credit administration practices and are pleased to report that we resolved several criticized and nonaccrual loans and recognized a recovery on a previously charged-off loan. We also proactively moved three loans to the special mention category to monitor them more closely. These loans are current, and we are confident they are well protected.”

    “Hanmi is well-positioned for a strong close to 2024 with a robust balance sheet, ample liquidity, healthy capital ratios, and a solid loan pipeline. Our team remains committed to delivering the solutions our customers need and results our shareholders expect,” concluded Lee.

    Third Quarter 2024 Highlights: 

    • Third quarter net income was $14.9 million, or $0.49 per diluted share, compared with $14.5 million, or $0.48 per diluted share for the second quarter of 2024. The increase reflects a $2.0 million, or 9.4%, increase in pretax, preprovision income, propelled by a 2.9% increase in net interest income.
    • Loans receivable were $6.26 billion at September 30, 2024, up 1.3% from the end of the second quarter of 2024, driven by a 27% increase in loan production to $347.8 million with a weighted average interest rate of 7.92%.
    • Deposits were $6.40 billion at September 30, 2024, up 1.2% from the end of the second quarter of 2024; noninterest-bearing demand deposits were 32.0% of total deposits. During the quarter, noninterest bearing demand deposits grew 4.7%, while time deposits declined 3.2% from the prior quarter.
    • Net interest income for the third quarter was $50.1 million, up 2.9% from the second quarter of 2024, driven by strong operational performance. Net interest margin (taxable equivalent) expanded five basis points to 2.74%, as the average yield on loans increased to 6.00%, while the cost of interest-bearing deposits remained unchanged at 4.27%.
    • Noninterest expense was $35.1 million for the third quarter, down 0.6% from the second quarter of 2024, primarily reflecting the absence of the second quarter $0.3 million branch consolidation charge.
    • Credit loss expense for the third quarter was $2.3 million, compared with $1.0 million for the prior quarter. The allowance for credit losses increased $1.4 million to $69.2 million at September 30, 2024, or 1.11% of loans. For the third quarter, net loan charge-offs of $0.9 million included a $1.1 million charge-off on a nonaccrual loan transferred to held-for-sale and a $1.7 million recovery of a nonaccrual loan.
    • Asset quality included several notable actions: nonaccrual loans fell 18.8% to $15.2 million and included pay-offs of $6.8 million while criticized assets increased, with downgrades to special mention of three loans totaling $129.8 million, offset by the move to the held-for-sale nonaccrual loan category of the previously identified $28.3 million completed construction loan, upgrades of $6.1 million, and additional loan pay-offs of $1.3 million. Subsequent to the end of the third quarter, the Bank completed the sale of the nonaccrual loan.

    For more information about Hanmi, please see the Q3 2024 Investor Update (and Supplemental Financial Information), which is available on the Bank’s website at http://www.hanmi.com and via a current report on Form 8-K on the website of the Securities and Exchange Commission at http://www.sec.gov. Also, please refer to “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” herein for further details of the presentation of certain non-GAAP financial measures.

    Quarterly Highlights
    (Dollars in thousands, except per share data)

      As of or for the Three Months Ended     Amount Change  
      September 30,     June 30,     March 31,     December 31,     September 30,     Q3-24     Q3-24  
      2024     2024     2024     2023     2023     vs. Q2-24     vs. Q3-23  
                                             
    Net income $ 14,892     $ 14,451     $ 15,164     $ 18,633     $ 18,796     $ 441     $ (3,904 )
    Net income per diluted common share $ 0.49     $ 0.48     $ 0.50     $ 0.61     $ 0.62     $ 0.01     $ (0.13 )
                                             
    Assets $ 7,712,299     $ 7,586,347     $ 7,512,046     $ 7,570,341     $ 7,350,140     $ 125,952     $ 362,159  
    Loans receivable $ 6,257,744     $ 6,176,359     $ 6,177,840     $ 6,182,434     $ 6,020,785     $ 81,385     $ 236,959  
    Deposits $ 6,403,221     $ 6,329,340     $ 6,376,060     $ 6,280,574     $ 6,260,072     $ 73,881     $ 143,149  
                                             
    Return on average assets   0.79 %     0.77 %     0.81 %     0.99 %     1.00 %     0.02       -0.21  
    Return on average stockholders’ equity   7.55 %     7.50 %     7.90 %     9.70 %     9.88 %     0.06       -2.33  
                                             
    Net interest margin   2.74 %     2.69 %     2.78 %     2.92 %     3.03 %     0.05       -0.29  
    Efficiency ratio (1)   59.98 %     62.24 %     62.42 %     58.86 %     51.82 %     -2.26       8.16  
                                             
    Tangible common equity to tangible assets (2)   9.42 %     9.19 %     9.23 %     9.14 %     8.89 %     0.23       0.53  
    Tangible common equity per common share (2) $ 24.03     $ 22.99     $ 22.86     $ 22.75     $ 21.45       1.04       2.58  
                                             
    (1)       Noninterest expense divided by net interest income plus noninterest income.  
    (2)       Refer to “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for further details.  


    Results of Operations
    Net interest income for the third quarter was $50.1 million, up 2.9% from $48.6 million for the second quarter of 2024. The increase was primarily due to an increase in loan interest income. The increase in loan interest income was a result of increases in loan yields and average balances. The yield on average loans for the third quarter increased slightly to 6.00% from 5.99% for the second quarter of 2024. Average loans were $6.11 billion for the third quarter of 2024, up 0.4% from $6.09 billion for the second quarter. The cost of interest-bearing deposits was 4.27% for the third quarter of 2024, unchanged from the prior quarter. Average interest-bearing deposits were $4.40 billion for the third quarter, up 0.3%, from $4.38 billion for the prior quarter. Net interest margin (taxable equivalent) for the third quarter was 2.74%, compared with 2.69% for the second quarter of 2024.

      For the Three Months Ended (in thousands)     Percentage Change  
      Sep 30,     Jun 30,     Mar 31,     Dec 31,     Sep 30,     Q3-24     Q3-24  
    Net Interest Income 2024     2024     2024     2023     2023     vs. Q2-24     vs. Q3-23  
                                             
    Interest and fees on loans receivable(1) $ 92,182     $ 90,752     $ 91,674     $ 89,922     $ 85,398       1.6 %     7.9 %
    Interest on securities   5,523       5,238       4,955       4,583       4,204       5.4 %     31.4 %
    Dividends on FHLB stock   356       357       361       341       317       -0.3 %     12.3 %
    Interest on deposits in other banks   2,356       2,313       2,604       2,337       4,153       1.9 %     -43.3 %
    Total interest and dividend income $ 100,417     $ 98,660     $ 99,594     $ 97,183     $ 94,072       1.8 %     6.7 %
                                             
    Interest on deposits   47,153       46,495       45,638       40,277       36,818       1.4 %     28.1 %
    Interest on borrowings   1,561       1,896       1,655       2,112       753       -17.7 %     107.3 %
    Interest on subordinated debentures   1,652       1,649       1,646       1,654       1,646       0.2 %     0.4 %
    Total interest expense   50,366       50,040       48,939       44,043       39,217       0.7 %     28.4 %
    Net interest income $ 50,051     $ 48,620     $ 50,655     $ 53,140     $ 54,855       2.9 %     -8.8 %
                                             
    (1)      Includes loans held for sale.  
      For the Three Months Ended (in thousands)     Percentage Change  
    Average Earning Assets and   Sep 30,     Jun 30,     Mar 31,     Dec 31,     Sep 30,     Q3-24     Q3-24  
    Interest-bearing Liabilities 2024     2024     2024     2023     2023     vs. Q2-24     vs. Q3-23  
    Loans receivable (1) $ 6,112,324     $ 6,089,440     $ 6,137,888     $ 6,071,644     $ 5,915,423       0.4 %     3.3 %
    Securities   986,041       979,671       969,520       961,551       955,473       0.7 %     3.2 %
    FHLB stock   16,385       16,385       16,385       16,385       16,385       0.0 %     0.0 %
    Interest-bearing deposits in other banks   183,027       180,177       201,724       181,140       317,498       1.6 %     -42.4 %
    Average interest-earning assets $ 7,297,777     $ 7,265,673     $ 7,325,517     $ 7,230,720     $ 7,204,779       0.4 %     1.3 %
                                             
    Demand: interest-bearing $ 83,647     $ 85,443     $ 86,401     $ 86,679     $ 94,703       -2.1 %     -11.7 %
    Money market and savings   1,885,799       1,845,870       1,815,085       1,669,973       1,601,826       2.2 %     17.7 %
    Time deposits   2,427,737       2,453,154       2,507,830       2,417,803       2,438,112       -1.0 %     -0.4 %
    Average interest-bearing deposits   4,397,183       4,384,467       4,409,316       4,174,455       4,134,641       0.3 %     6.3 %
    Borrowings   143,479       169,525       162,418       205,951       120,381       -15.4 %     19.2 %
    Subordinated debentures   130,403       130,239       130,088       129,933       129,780       0.1 %     0.5 %
    Average interest-bearing liabilities $ 4,671,065     $ 4,684,231     $ 4,701,822     $ 4,510,339     $ 4,384,802       -0.3 %     6.5 %
                                             
    Average Noninterest Bearing Deposits                                        
    Demand deposits – noninterest bearing $ 1,908,833     $ 1,883,765     $ 1,921,189     $ 2,025,212     $ 2,136,156       1.3 %     -10.6 %
                                             
    (1)      Includes loans held for sale.                     
      For the Three Months Ended     Yield/Rate Change  
      Sep 30,     Jun 30,     Mar 31,     Dec 31,     Sep 30,     Q3-24     Q3-24  
    Average Yields and Rates 2024     2024     2024     2023     2023     vs. Q2-24     vs. Q3-23  
    Loans receivable(1)   6.00 %     5.99 %     6.00 %     5.88 %     5.73 %     0.01       0.27  
    Securities (2)   2.27 %     2.17 %     2.07 %     1.93 %     1.79 %     0.10       0.48  
    FHLB stock   8.65 %     8.77 %     8.87 %     8.25 %     7.67 %     -0.12       0.98  
    Interest-bearing deposits in other banks   5.12 %     5.16 %     5.19 %     5.12 %     5.19 %     -0.04       -0.07  
    Interest-earning assets   5.48 %     5.46 %     5.47 %     5.34 %     5.19 %     0.02       0.29  
                                             
    Interest-bearing deposits   4.27 %     4.27 %     4.16 %     3.83 %     3.53 %     0.00       0.74  
    Borrowings   4.33 %     4.50 %     4.10 %     4.07 %     2.48 %     -0.17       1.85  
    Subordinated debentures   5.07 %     5.07 %     5.06 %     5.09 %     5.07 %     0.00       0.00  
    Interest-bearing liabilities   4.29 %     4.30 %     4.19 %     3.88 %     3.55 %     -0.01       0.74  
                                             
    Net interest margin (taxable equivalent basis)   2.74 %     2.69 %     2.78 %     2.92 %     3.03 %     0.05       -0.29  
                                             
    Cost of deposits   2.97 %     2.98 %     2.90 %     2.58 %     2.33 %     -0.01       0.64  
                                             
    (1)      Includes loans held for sale.  
    (2)      Amounts calculated on a fully taxable equivalent basis using the federal tax rate in effect for the periods presented.  

    Credit loss expense for the third quarter was $2.3 million, compared with $1.0 million for the second quarter of 2024. Third quarter credit loss expense included a $2.3 million credit loss expense for loan losses. Third quarter net loan charge-offs were $0.9 million, compared with second quarter net loan charge-offs of $1.8 million. Third quarter net loan charge-offs included a $1.1 million charge-off on a nonaccrual loan transferred to held-for-sale and a $1.7 million recovery on a nonaccrual loan.

    Noninterest income for the third quarter increased $0.3 million to $8.4 million, or 4.7%, from $8.1 million for the second quarter of 2024. Third quarter noninterest income included a $0.9 million gain from the sale and leaseback of a branch property, while second quarter noninterest income included a $0.3 million death benefit on bank-owned life insurance. Gains on sales of SBA loans were $1.5 million for the third quarter of 2024, compared with $1.6 million for the second quarter of 2024. The volume of SBA loans sold in the third quarter decreased to $23.0 million, from $23.5 million for the second quarter of 2024, while trade premiums were 8.54% for the third quarter of 2024, unchanged from the second quarter. Mortgage loans sold in the third quarter were $20.9 million, with a premium of 2.32%, compared with $19.5 million and 2.00% for the second quarter, resulting in income of $0.3 million for the third quarter, compared with $0.4 million for the prior quarter.

      For the Three Months Ended (in thousands)     Percentage Change  
      Sep 30,     Jun 30,     Mar 31,     Dec 31,     Sep 30,     Q3-24     Q3-24  
    Noninterest Income 2024     2024     2024     2023     2023     vs. Q2-24     vs. Q3-23  
    Service charges on deposit accounts $ 2,311     $ 2,429     $ 2,450     $ 2,391     $ 2,605       -4.9 %     -11.3 %
    Trade finance and other service charges and fees   1,254       1,277       1,414       1,245       1,155       -1.8 %     8.6 %
    Servicing income   817       796       712       772       838       2.6 %     -2.5 %
    Bank-owned life insurance income (expense)   320       638       304       (29 )     280       -49.8 %     14.3 %
    All other operating income   1,008       908       928       853       1,178       11.0 %     -14.4 %
    Service charges, fees & other   5,710       6,048       5,808       5,232       6,056       -5.6 %     -5.7 %
                                             
    Gain on sale of SBA loans   1,544       1,644       1,482       1,448       1,172       -6.1 %     31.7 %
    Gain on sale of mortgage loans   324       365       443       –       –       -11.2 %     100.0 %
    Gain on sale of bank premises   860       –       –       –       4,000       100.0 %     -78.5 %
    Total noninterest income $ 8,438     $ 8,057     $ 7,733     $ 6,680     $ 11,228       4.7 %     -24.8 %

    Noninterest expense for the third quarter decreased by $0.2 million to $35.1 million from $35.3 million for the second quarter of 2024. The decrease reflects primarily the absence of the $0.3 million branch consolidation expense recognized in the second quarter of 2024. The efficiency ratio for the third quarter was 60.0%, compared with 62.2% for the second quarter of 2024.

      For the Three Months Ended (in thousands)     Percentage Change  
      Sep 30,     Jun 30,     Mar 31,     Dec 31,     Sep 30,     Q3-24     Q3-24  
      2024     2024     2024     2023     2023     vs. Q2-24     vs. Q3-23  
    Noninterest Expense                                        
    Salaries and employee benefits $ 20,851     $ 20,434     $ 21,585     $ 20,062     $ 20,361       2.0 %     2.4 %
    Occupancy and equipment   4,499       4,348       4,537       4,604       4,825       3.5 %     -6.8 %
    Data processing   3,839       3,686       3,551       3,487       3,490       4.2 %     10.0 %
    Professional fees   1,492       1,749       1,893       1,977       1,568       -14.7 %     -4.8 %
    Supplies and communication   538       570       601       613       552       -5.6 %     -2.5 %
    Advertising and promotion   631       669       907       990       534       -5.7 %     18.2 %
    All other operating expenses   2,875       3,251       3,160       3,252       2,852       -11.6 %     0.8 %
    Subtotal   34,725       34,707       36,234       34,985       34,182       0.1 %     1.6 %
                                             
    Branch consolidation expense   –       301       –       –       –       -100.0 %     0.0 %
    Other real estate owned expense   77       6       22       15       16       1183.3 %     381.3 %
    Repossessed personal property expense   278       262       189       211       47       6.1 %     491.5 %
    Total noninterest expense $ 35,080     $ 35,276     $ 36,445     $ 35,211     $ 34,245       -0.6 %     2.4 %

    Hanmi recorded a provision for income taxes of $6.2 million for the third quarter of 2024, compared with $6.0 million for the second quarter of 2024, representing an effective tax rate of 29.5% and 29.3%, respectively.

    Financial Position
    Total assets at September 30, 2024 increased 1.7%, or $126.0 million, to $7.71 billion from $7.59 billion at June 30, 2024. The sequential quarter increase was due to a $125.3 million increase in loans and loans held-for-sale, and a $31.3 million increase in securities, offset partially by a $25.3 million decrease in cash and due from banks.

    Loans receivable, before allowance for credit losses, were $6.26 billion at September 30, 2024, up from $6.18 billion at June 30, 2024.

    Loans held-for-sale were $54.3 million at September 30, 2024, up from $10.5 million at June 30, 2024. At the end of the third quarter, loans held-for-sale consisted of $8.8 million of the guaranteed portion of SBA 7(a) loans, $18.3 million of residential mortgage loans and the $27.2 million nonaccrual loan. Subsequent to the end of the third quarter, the Bank completed the sale of this nonaccrual loan.

      As of (in thousands)     Percentage Change  
      Sep 30,     Jun 30,     Mar 31,     Dec 31,     Sep 30,     Q3-24     Q3-24  
      2024     2024     2024     2023     2023     vs. Q2-24     vs. Q3-23  
    Loan Portfolio                                        
    Commercial real estate loans $ 3,932,088     $ 3,888,505     $ 3,878,677     $ 3,889,739     $ 3,773,015       1.1 %     4.2 %
    Residential/consumer loans   939,285       954,209       970,362       962,661       926,326       -1.6 %     1.4 %
    Commercial and industrial loans   879,092       802,372       774,851       747,819       728,792       9.6 %     20.6 %
    Equipment finance   507,279       531,273       553,950       582,215       592,652       -4.5 %     -14.4 %
    Loans receivable   6,257,744       6,176,359       6,177,840       6,182,434       6,020,785       1.3 %     3.9 %
    Loans held for sale   54,336       10,467       3,999       12,013       11,767       419.1 %     361.8 %
    Total $ 6,312,080     $ 6,186,826     $ 6,181,839     $ 6,194,447     $ 6,032,552       2.0 %     4.6 %
      As of  
      Sep 30,     Jun 30,     Mar 31,     Dec 31,     Sep 30,  
      2024     2024     2024     2023     2023  
    Composition of Loan Portfolio                            
    Commercial real estate loans   62.3 %     62.9 %     62.7 %     62.8 %     62.5 %
    Residential/consumer loans   14.9 %     15.4 %     15.7 %     15.5 %     15.4 %
    Commercial and industrial loans   13.9 %     13.0 %     12.5 %     12.1 %     12.1 %
    Equipment finance   8.0 %     8.5 %     9.0 %     9.4 %     9.8 %
    Loans receivable   99.1 %     99.8 %     99.9 %     99.8 %     99.8 %
    Loans held for sale   0.9 %     0.2 %     0.1 %     0.2 %     0.2 %
    Total   100.0 %     100.0 %     100.0 %     100.0 %     100.0 %

    New loan production was $347.8 million for the third quarter of 2024 at an average rate of 7.92%, while payoffs were $77.6 million during the quarter at an average rate of 6.63%.

    Commercial real estate loan production for the third quarter of 2024 was $110.2 million. Commercial and industrial loan production was $105.1 million, SBA loan production was $51.6 million, equipment finance production was $40.1 million, and residential mortgage loan production was $40.8 million.

      For the Three Months Ended (in thousands)  
      Sep 30,     Jun 30,     Mar 31,     Dec 31,     Sep 30,  
      2024     2024     2024     2023     2023  
    New Loan Production                            
    Commercial real estate loans $ 110,246     $ 87,632     $ 60,085     $ 178,157     $ 106,151  
    Commercial and industrial loans   105,086       59,007       50,789       52,079       67,907  
    SBA loans   51,616       54,486       30,817       48,432       36,109  
    Equipment finance   40,066       42,594       39,155       57,334       71,075  
    Residential/consumer loans   40,758       30,194       53,115       53,465       55,026  
    Subtotal   347,772       273,913       233,961       389,467       336,268  
                                 
                                 
    Payoffs   (77,603 )     (148,400 )     (86,250 )     (77,961 )     (62,140 )
    Amortization   (151,674 )     (83,640 )     (90,711 )     (106,610 )     (116,411 )
    Loan sales   (43,868 )     (42,945 )     (55,321 )     (29,861 )     (22,496 )
    Net line utilization   9,426       1,929       (4,150 )     (11,609 )     (70,238 )
    Charge-offs & OREO   (2,668 )     (2,338 )     (2,123 )     (1,777 )     (9,369 )
                                 
    Loans receivable-beginning balance   6,176,359       6,177,840       6,182,434       6,020,785       5,965,171  
    Loans receivable-ending balance $ 6,257,744     $ 6,176,359     $ 6,177,840     $ 6,182,434     $ 6,020,785  

    Deposits were $6.40 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2024, up $73.9 million, or 1.2%, from $6.33 billion at the end of the prior quarter. Driving the change was a $91.8 million increase in noninterest-bearing demand deposits and a $64.0 million increase in money market and savings deposits, partially offset by a $78.3 million decrease in time deposits. Noninterest-bearing demand deposits represented 32.0% of total deposits at September 30, 2024 and the loan-to-deposit ratio was 97.7%.

      As of (in thousands)     Percentage Change  
      Sep 30,     Jun 30,     Mar 31,     Dec 31,     Sep 30,     Q3-24     Q3-24  
      2024     2024     2024     2023     2023     vs. Q2-24     vs. Q3-23  
    Deposit Portfolio                                        
    Demand: noninterest-bearing $ 2,051,790     $ 1,959,963     $ 1,933,060     $ 2,003,596     $ 2,161,238       4.7 %     -5.1 %
    Demand: interest-bearing   79,287       82,981       87,374       87,452       88,133       -4.5 %     -10.0 %
    Money market and savings   1,898,834       1,834,797       1,859,865       1,734,658       1,576,006       3.5 %     20.5 %
    Time deposits   2,373,310       2,451,599       2,495,761       2,454,868       2,434,695       -3.2 %     -2.5 %
    Total deposits $ 6,403,221     $ 6,329,340     $ 6,376,060     $ 6,280,574     $ 6,260,072       1.2 %     2.3 %
      As of  
      Sep 30,     Jun 30,     Mar 31,     Dec 31,     Sep 30,  
      2024     2024     2024     2023     2023  
    Composition of Deposit Portfolio                            
    Demand: noninterest-bearing   32.0 %     31.0 %     30.3 %     31.9 %     34.5 %
    Demand: interest-bearing   1.2 %     1.3 %     1.4 %     1.4 %     1.4 %
    Money market and savings   29.7 %     29.0 %     29.2 %     27.6 %     25.2 %
    Time deposits   37.1 %     38.7 %     39.1 %     39.1 %     38.9 %
    Total deposits   100.0 %     100.0 %     100.0 %     100.0 %     100.0 %

    Stockholders’ equity at September 30, 2024 was $736.7 million, up $29.6 million from $707.1 million at June 30, 2024. The increase was due to third quarter net income, net of dividends paid, adding $7.3 million to stockholders’ equity for the period. Additionally, there was a $20.7 million decrease in unrealized after-tax losses on securities available for sale and a $2.2 million decrease in unrealized after-tax losses on cash flow hedges, all due to changes in interest rates during the third quarter of 2024. Hanmi also repurchased 75,000 shares of common stock, or $1.4 million, during the quarter at an average share price of $19.10. At September 30, 2024, 1,255,000 shares remain under Hanmi’s share repurchase program. Tangible common stockholders’ equity was $725.7 million, or 9.42% of tangible assets, at September 30, 2024, compared with $696.0 million, or 9.19% of tangible assets at the end of the prior quarter. Please refer to the Non-GAAP Financial Measures section below for more information.

    Hanmi and the Bank exceeded minimum regulatory capital requirements, and the Bank continues to exceed the minimum for the “well capitalized” category. At September 30, 2024, Hanmi’s preliminary common equity tier 1 capital ratio was 11.95% and its total risk-based capital ratio was 15.04%, compared with 12.11% and 15.24%, respectively, at the end of the prior quarter.

      As of     Ratio Change  
      Sep 30,     Jun 30,     Mar 31,     Dec 31,     Sep 30,     Q3-24     Q3-24  
      2024     2024     2024     2023     2023     vs. Q2-24     vs. Q3-23  
    Regulatory Capital ratios (1)                                        
    Hanmi Financial                                        
    Total risk-based capital   15.04 %     15.24 %     15.20 %     14.95 %     15.07 %     -0.20       -0.03  
    Tier 1 risk-based capital   12.29 %     12.46 %     12.40 %     12.20 %     12.30 %     -0.17       -0.01  
    Common equity tier 1 capital   11.95 %     12.11 %     12.05 %     11.86 %     11.95 %     -0.16       0.00  
    Tier 1 leverage capital ratio   10.56 %     10.51 %     10.36 %     10.37 %     10.27 %     0.05       0.29  
    Hanmi Bank                                        
    Total risk-based capital   14.28 %     14.51 %     14.50 %     14.27 %     14.42 %     -0.23       -0.14  
    Tier 1 risk-based capital   13.24 %     13.47 %     13.44 %     13.26 %     13.42 %     -0.23       -0.18  
    Common equity tier 1 capital   13.24 %     13.47 %     13.44 %     13.26 %     13.42 %     -0.23       -0.18  
    Tier 1 leverage capital ratio   11.43 %     11.41 %     11.29 %     11.32 %     11.25 %     0.02       0.18  
                                             
    (1)      Preliminary ratios for September 30, 2024  


    Asset Quality
    Loans 30 to 89 days past due and still accruing were 0.24% of loans at the end of the third quarter of 2024, compared with 0.22% at the end of the prior quarter.

    Criticized loans totaled $160.0 million at September 30, 2024, up from $70.9 million at the end of the second quarter of 2024.

    During the third quarter, the Bank moved the previously identified $28.3 million completed construction loan for a memory-care and assisted-living facility from the special mention category to the held-for-sale nonaccrual category. In addition, the Bank recognized a $1.1 million charge-off on this loan. Subsequent to the end of the third quarter, the Bank completed the sale of this nonaccrual loan.

    Also, during the third quarter, the Bank downgraded to special mention two commercial real estate loans in the hospitality industry for $109.7 million and a commercial and industrial loan in the health care industry for $20.1 million.  Pay-offs of $8.1 million decreased criticized loans (and classified loans), while upgrades of $6.1 million also decreased criticized loans (and special mention loans). Offsetting the decrease in classified loans were additions of $2.5 million.

    Nonperforming loans were $15.5 million at September 30, 2024, down from $19.2 million at the end of the prior quarter. The decrease primarily reflects pay-offs of $6.8 million, where the pay-off of a previously identified $3.9 million nonperforming loan resulted in a $1.7 million recovery.  Offsetting the decrease were additions of $3.1 million.

    Nonperforming assets were $16.3 million at the end of the third quarter of 2024, down from $20.0 million at the end of the prior quarter. As a percentage of total assets, nonperforming assets were 0.21% at September 30, 2024, and 0.26% at the end of the prior quarter.

    Gross charge-offs for the third quarter of 2024 were $3.8 million, compared with $2.3 million for the preceding quarter. Charge-offs included $1.1 million on the previously identified $28.3 million completed construction loan. Recoveries of previously charged-off loans were $2.9 million in the third quarter of 2024, and included a $1.7 million recovery on a previously identified $3.9 million commercial loan in the health care industry. As a result, net charge-offs were $0.9 million for the third quarter of 2024, compared with net charge-offs of $1.8 million for the prior quarter.

    The allowance for credit losses was $69.2 million at September 30, 2024, compared with $67.7 million at June 30, 2024. Specific allowances for loans decreased $1.6 million, while the allowance for quantitative and qualitative considerations increased $3.1 million. The ratio of the allowance for credit losses to loans was 1.11% at September 30, 2024 and 1.10% at June 30, 2024.

      As of or for the Three Months Ended (in thousands)     Amount Change  
      Sep 30,     Jun 30,     Mar 31,     Dec 31,     Sep 30,     Q3-24     Q3-24  
      2024     2024     2024     2023     2023     vs. Q2-24     vs. Q3-23  
    Asset Quality Data and Ratios                                        
                                             
    Delinquent loans:                                        
    Loans, 30 to 89 days past due and still accruing $ 15,027     $ 13,844     $ 15,839     $ 10,263     $ 9,545     $ 1,183     $ 5,482  
    Delinquent loans to total loans   0.24 %     0.22 %     0.26 %     0.17 %     0.16 %     0.02       0.08  
                                             
    Criticized loans:                                        
    Special mention $ 131,575     $ 36,921     $ 62,317     $ 65,314     $ 76,473     $ 94,654     $ 55,102  
    Classified   28,377       33,945       23,670       31,367       33,134       (5,568 )     (4,757 )
    Total criticized loans $ 159,952     $ 70,866     $ 85,987     $ 96,681     $ 109,607     $ 89,086     $ 50,345  
                                             
    Nonperforming assets:                                        
    Nonaccrual loans $ 15,248     $ 19,245     $ 14,025     $ 15,474     $ 15,783     $ (3,997 )   $ (535 )
    Loans 90 days or more past due and still accruing   242       –       –       –       –       242       242  
    Nonperforming loans*   15,490       19,245       14,025       15,474       15,783       (3,755 )     (293 )
    Other real estate owned, net   772       772       117       117       117       –       655  
    Nonperforming assets** $ 16,262     $ 20,017     $ 14,142     $ 15,591     $ 15,900     $ (3,755 )   $ 362  
                                             
    Nonperforming assets to assets*   0.21 %     0.26 %     0.19 %     0.21 %     0.22 %     -0.05       -0.01  
    Nonperforming loans to total loans   0.25 %     0.31 %     0.23 %     0.25 %     0.26 %     -0.06       -0.01  
                                             
    * Excludes a $27.2 million nonperforming loan held-for-sale.                     
    ** Excludes repossessed personal property of $1.2 million, $1.2 million, $1.3 million, $1.3 million, and $1.3 million as of Q3-24, Q2-24, Q1-24, Q4-23, and Q3-23, respectively  
      As of or for the Three Months Ended (in thousands)  
      Sep 30,     Jun 30,     Mar 31,     Dec 31,     Sep 30,  
      2024     2024     2024     2023     2023  
    Allowance for credit losses related to loans:                            
    Balance at beginning of period $ 67,729     $ 68,270     $ 69,462     $ 67,313     $ 71,024  
    Credit loss expense (recovery) on loans   2,312       1,248       404       (2,880 )     5,167  
    Net loan (charge-offs) recoveries   (878 )     (1,789 )     (1,596 )     5,029       (8,878 )
    Balance at end of period $ 69,163     $ 67,729     $ 68,270     $ 69,462     $ 67,313  
                                 
    Net loan charge-offs (recoveries) to average loans (1)   0.06 %     0.12 %     0.10 %     -0.33 %     0.60 %
    Allowance for credit losses to loans   1.11 %     1.10 %     1.11 %     1.12 %     1.12 %
                                 
    Allowance for credit losses related to off-balance sheet items:                            
    Balance at beginning of period $ 2,010     $ 2,297     $ 2,474     $ 2,463     $ 2,476  
    Credit loss expense (recovery) on off-balance sheet items   (26 )     (287 )     (177 )     11       (13 )
    Balance at end of period $ 1,984     $ 2,010     $ 2,297     $ 2,474     $ 2,463  
                                 
    Unused commitments to extend credit $ 739,975     $ 795,391     $ 792,769     $ 813,960     $ 848,886  
                                 
    (1)      Annualized               


    Corporate Developments
    On July 25, 2024, Hanmi’s Board of Directors declared a cash dividend on its common stock for the 2024 third quarter of $0.25 per share. Hanmi paid the dividend on August 21, 2024, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on August 5, 2024.

    Earnings Conference Call
    Hanmi Bank will host its third quarter 2024 earnings conference call today, October 22, 2024, at 2:00 p.m. PT (5:00 p.m. ET) to discuss these results. This call will also be webcast. To access the call, please dial 1-877-407-9039 before 2:00 p.m. PT, using access code Hanmi Bank. To listen to the call online, either live or archived, please visit Hanmi’s Investor Relations website at https://investors.hanmi.com/ where it will also be available for replay approximately one hour following the call.

    About Hanmi Financial Corporation
    Headquartered in Los Angeles, California, Hanmi Financial Corporation owns Hanmi Bank, which serves multi-ethnic communities through its network of 32 full-service branches and eight loan production offices in California, Texas, Illinois, Virginia, New Jersey, New York, Colorado, Washington and Georgia. Hanmi Bank specializes in real estate, commercial, SBA and trade finance lending to small and middle market businesses. Additional information is available at http://www.hanmi.com.

    Forward-Looking Statements
    This press release contains forward-looking statements, which are included in accordance with the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements other than statements of historical fact are “forward-looking statements” for purposes of federal and state securities laws, including, but not limited to, statements about our anticipated future operating and financial performance, financial position and liquidity, business strategies, regulatory and competitive outlook, investment and expenditure plans, capital and financing needs and availability, plans and objectives of management for future operations, developments regarding our capital and strategic plans, and other similar forecasts and statements of expectation and statements of assumption underlying any of the foregoing. In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by terminology such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expects,” “plans,” “intends,” “anticipates,” “believes,” “estimates,” “predicts,” “potential,” or “continue,” or the negative of such terms and other comparable terminology. Although we believe that our forward-looking statements to be reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements.

    Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our actual results, levels of activity, performance or achievements to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. These factors include the following:

    • a failure to maintain adequate levels of capital and liquidity to support our operations;
    • general economic and business conditions internationally, nationally and in those areas in which we operate, including any potential recessionary conditions;
    • volatility and deterioration in the credit and equity markets;
    • changes in consumer spending, borrowing and savings habits;
    • availability of capital from private and government sources;
    • demographic changes;
    • competition for loans and deposits and failure to attract or retain loans and deposits;
    • inflation and fluctuations in interest rates that reduce our margins and yields, the fair value of financial instruments, the level of loan originations or prepayments on loans we have made and make, the level of loan sales and the cost we pay to retain and attract deposits and secure other types of funding;
    • our ability to enter new markets successfully and capitalize on growth opportunities;
    • the current or anticipated impact of military conflict, terrorism or other geopolitical events;
    • the effect of potential future supervisory action against us or Hanmi Bank and our ability to address any issues raised in our regulatory exams;
    • risks of natural disasters;
    • legal proceedings and litigation brought against us;
    • a failure in or breach of our operational or security systems or infrastructure, including cyberattacks;
    • the failure to maintain current technologies;
    • risks associated with Small Business Administration loans;
    • failure to attract or retain key employees;
    • our ability to access cost-effective funding;
    • changes in liquidity, including the size and composition of our deposit portfolio and the percentage of uninsured deposits in the portfolio;
    • fluctuations in real estate values;
    • changes in accounting policies and practices;
    • changes in governmental regulation, including, but not limited to, any increase in FDIC insurance premiums and changes in the monetary policies of the U.S. Treasury and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
    • the ability of Hanmi Bank to make distributions to Hanmi Financial Corporation, which is restricted by certain factors, including Hanmi Bank’s retained earnings, net income, prior distributions made, and certain other financial tests;
    • strategic transactions we may enter into;
    • the adequacy of and changes in the methodology for computing our allowance for credit losses;
    • our credit quality and the effect of credit quality on our credit losses expense and allowance for credit losses;
    • changes in the financial performance and/or condition of our borrowers and the ability of our borrowers to perform under the terms of their loans and other terms of credit agreements;
    • our ability to control expenses; and
    • cyber security and fraud risks against our information technology and those of our third-party providers and vendors.

    In addition, we set forth certain risks in our reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including, Item 1A of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, and Current Reports on Form 8-K that we will file hereafter, which could cause actual results to differ from those projected. We undertake no obligation to update such forward-looking statements except as required by law.

    Investor Contacts:
    Romolo (Ron) Santarosa
    Senior Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
    213-427-5636

    Lisa Fortuna
    Investor Relations
    Financial Profiles, Inc.
    lfortuna@finprofiles.com
    310-622-8251

     

    Hanmi Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries
    Consolidated Balance Sheets (Unaudited)
    (Dollars in thousands)

      September 30,     June 30,     Percentage     September 30,     Percentage  
      2024     2024     Change     2023     Change  
    Assets                            
    Cash and due from banks $ 287,767     $ 313,079       -8.1 %   $ 289,006       -0.4 %
    Securities available for sale, at fair value   908,921       877,638       3.6 %     817,242       11.2 %
    Loans held for sale, at the lower of cost or fair value   54,336       10,467       419.1 %     11,767       361.8 %
    Loans receivable, net of allowance for credit losses   6,188,581       6,108,630       1.3 %     5,953,472       3.9 %
    Accrued interest receivable   21,955       23,958       -8.4 %     20,715       6.0 %
    Premises and equipment, net   21,371       21,955       -2.7 %     20,707       3.2 %
    Customers’ liability on acceptances   67       551       -87.8 %     1,386       -95.2 %
    Servicing assets   6,683       6,836       -2.2 %     7,156       -6.6 %
    Goodwill and other intangible assets, net   11,031       11,048       -0.2 %     11,131       -0.9 %
    Federal Home Loan Bank (“FHLB”) stock, at cost   16,385       16,385       0.0 %     16,385       0.0 %
    Bank-owned life insurance   56,851       56,534       0.6 %     56,364       0.9 %
    Prepaid expenses and other assets   138,351       139,266       -0.7 %     144,809       -4.5 %
    Total assets $ 7,712,299     $ 7,586,347       1.7 %   $ 7,350,140       4.9 %
                                 
    Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity                            
    Liabilities:                            
    Deposits:                            
    Noninterest-bearing $ 2,051,790     $ 1,959,963       4.7 %   $ 2,161,238       -5.1 %
    Interest-bearing   4,351,431       4,369,377       -0.4 %     4,098,834       6.2 %
    Total deposits   6,403,221       6,329,340       1.2 %     6,260,072       2.3 %
    Accrued interest payable   52,613       47,699       10.3 %     50,286       4.6 %
    Bank’s liability on acceptances   67       551       -87.8 %     1,386       -95.2 %
    Borrowings   300,000       292,500       2.6 %     162,500       84.6 %
    Subordinated debentures   130,478       130,318       0.1 %     129,860       0.5 %
    Accrued expenses and other liabilities   89,211       78,880       13.1 %     82,677       7.9 %
    Total liabilities   6,975,590       6,879,288       1.4 %     6,686,781       4.3 %
                                 
    Stockholders’ equity:                            
    Common stock   34       34       0.0 %     34       0.0 %
    Additional paid-in capital   589,567       588,647       0.2 %     586,169       0.6 %
    Accumulated other comprehensive income   (55,140 )     (78,000 )     29.3 %     (99,422 )     44.5 %
    Retained earnings   340,718       333,392       2.2 %     308,007       10.6 %
    Less treasury stock   (138,470 )     (137,014 )     -1.1 %     (131,429 )     -5.4 %
    Total stockholders’ equity   736,709       707,059       4.2 %     663,359       11.1 %
    Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity $ 7,712,299     $ 7,586,347       1.7 %   $ 7,350,140       4.9 %

     


    Hanmi Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries
    Consolidated Statements of Income (Unaudited)
    (Dollars in thousands, except share and per share data)

      Three Months Ended  
      September 30,     June 30,     Percentage     September 30,     Percentage  
      2024     2024     Change     2023     Change  
    Interest and dividend income:                            
    Interest and fees on loans receivable $ 92,182     $ 90,752       1.6 %   $ 85,398       7.9 %
    Interest on securities   5,523       5,238       5.4 %     4,204       31.4 %
    Dividends on FHLB stock   356       357       -0.3 %     317       12.3 %
    Interest on deposits in other banks   2,356       2,313       1.9 %     4,153       -43.3 %
    Total interest and dividend income   100,417       98,660       1.8 %     94,072       6.7 %
    Interest expense:                            
    Interest on deposits   47,153       46,495       1.4 %     36,818       28.1 %
    Interest on borrowings   1,561       1,896       -17.7 %     753       107.3 %
    Interest on subordinated debentures   1,652       1,649       0.2 %     1,646       0.4 %
    Total interest expense   50,366       50,040       0.7 %     39,217       28.4 %
    Net interest income before credit loss expense   50,051       48,620       2.9 %     54,855       -8.8 %
    Credit loss expense   2,286       961       137.9 %     5,154       -55.6 %
    Net interest income after credit loss expense   47,765       47,659       0.2 %     49,701       -3.9 %
    Noninterest income:                            
    Service charges on deposit accounts   2,311       2,429       -4.9 %     2,605       -11.3 %
    Trade finance and other service charges and fees   1,254       1,277       -1.8 %     1,155       8.6 %
    Gain on sale of Small Business Administration (“SBA”) loans   1,544       1,644       -6.1 %     1,172       31.7 %
    Other operating income   3,329       2,707       23.0 %     6,296       -47.1 %
    Total noninterest income   8,438       8,057       4.7 %     11,228       -24.8 %
    Noninterest expense:                            
    Salaries and employee benefits   20,851       20,434       2.0 %     20,361       2.4 %
    Occupancy and equipment   4,499       4,607       -2.3 %     4,825       -6.8 %
    Data processing   3,839       3,686       4.2 %     3,490       10.0 %
    Professional fees   1,492       1,749       -14.7 %     1,568       -4.8 %
    Supplies and communications   538       570       -5.6 %     552       -2.5 %
    Advertising and promotion   631       669       -5.7 %     534       18.2 %
    Other operating expenses   3,230       3,561       -9.3 %     2,915       10.8 %
    Total noninterest expense   35,080       35,276       -0.6 %     34,245       2.4 %
    Income before tax   21,123       20,440       3.3 %     26,684       -20.8 %
    Income tax expense   6,231       5,989       4.0 %     7,888       -21.0 %
    Net income $ 14,892     $ 14,451       3.1 %   $ 18,796       -20.8 %
                                 
    Basic earnings per share: $ 0.49     $ 0.48           $ 0.62        
    Diluted earnings per share: $ 0.49     $ 0.48           $ 0.62        
                                 
    Weighted-average shares outstanding:                            
    Basic   29,968,004       30,055,913             30,251,961        
    Diluted   30,033,679       30,133,646             30,292,872        
    Common shares outstanding   30,196,755       30,272,110             30,410,582        

     


    Hanmi Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries
    Consolidated Statements of Income (Unaudited)
    (Dollars in thousands, except share and per share data)

      Nine Months Ended  
      September 30,     September 30,     Percentage  
      2024     2023     Change  
    Interest and dividend income:                
    Interest and fees on loans receivable $ 274,608     $ 249,888       9.9 %
    Interest on securities   15,717       12,356       27.2 %
    Dividends on FHLB stock   1,075       888       21.1 %
    Interest on deposits in other banks   7,270       9,012       -19.3 %
    Total interest and dividend income   298,670       272,144       9.7 %
    Interest expense:                
    Interest on deposits   139,286       94,431       47.5 %
    Interest on borrowings   5,112       4,755       7.5 %
    Interest on subordinated debentures   4,948       4,828       2.5 %
    Total interest expense   149,346       104,014       43.6 %
    Net interest income before credit loss expense   149,324       168,130       -11.2 %
    Credit loss expense   3,474       7,210       -51.8 %
    Net interest income after credit loss expense   145,850       160,920       -9.4 %
    Noninterest income:                
    Service charges on deposit accounts   7,189       7,756       -7.3 %
    Trade finance and other service charges and fees   3,945       3,586       10.0 %
    Gain on sale of Small Business Administration (“SBA”) loans   4,669       4,253       9.8 %
    Other operating income   8,425       11,904       -29.2 %
    Total noninterest income   24,228       27,499       -11.9 %
    Noninterest expense:                
    Salaries and employee benefits   62,870       61,336       2.5 %
    Occupancy and equipment   13,643       13,737       -0.7 %
    Data processing   11,076       10,208       8.5 %
    Professional fees   5,134       4,278       20.0 %
    Supplies and communications   1,710       1,866       -8.4 %
    Advertising and promotion   2,207       2,114       4.4 %
    Other operating expenses   10,160       7,777       30.6 %
    Total noninterest expense   106,800       101,316       5.4 %
    Income before tax   63,278       87,103       -27.4 %
    Income tax expense   18,772       25,695       -26.9 %
    Net income $ 44,506     $ 61,408       -27.5 %
                     
    Basic earnings per share: $ 1.47     $ 2.01        
    Diluted earnings per share: $ 1.47     $ 2.01        
                     
    Weighted-average shares outstanding:                
    Basic   30,048,748       30,296,991        
    Diluted   30,117,269       30,338,678        
    Common shares outstanding   30,196,755       30,410,582        

     


    Hanmi Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries
    Average Balance, Average Yield Earned, and Average Rate Paid (Unaudited)
    (Dollars in thousands)

      Three Months Ended  
      September 30, 2024     June 30, 2024     September 30, 2023  
            Interest   Average           Interest   Average           Interest   Average  
      Average     Income /   Yield /     Average     Income /   Yield /     Average     Income /   Yield /  
      Balance     Expense   Rate     Balance     Expense   Rate     Balance     Expense   Rate  
    Assets                                              
    Interest-earning assets:                                              
    Loans receivable (1) $ 6,112,324     $ 92,182     6.00 %   $ 6,089,440     $ 90,752     5.99 %   $ 5,915,423     $ 85,398     5.73 %
    Securities (2)   986,041       5,523     2.27 %     979,671       5,238     2.17 %     955,473       4,204     1.79 %
    FHLB stock   16,385       356     8.65 %     16,385       357     8.77 %     16,385       317     7.67 %
    Interest-bearing deposits in other banks   183,027       2,356     5.12 %     180,177       2,313     5.16 %     317,498       4,153     5.19 %
    Total interest-earning assets   7,297,777       100,417     5.48 %     7,265,673       98,660     5.46 %     7,204,779       94,072     5.19 %
                                                   
    Noninterest-earning assets:                                              
    Cash and due from banks   54,843                 55,442                 59,994            
    Allowance for credit losses   (67,906 )               (67,908 )               (70,173 )          
    Other assets   251,421                 252,410                 240,145            
                                                   
    Total assets $ 7,536,135               $ 7,505,617               $ 7,434,745            
                                                   
    Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity                                              
    Interest-bearing liabilities:                                              
    Deposits:                                              
    Demand: interest-bearing $ 83,647     $ 31     0.15 %   $ 85,443     $ 32     0.15 %   $ 94,703     $ 32     0.13 %
    Money market and savings   1,885,799       17,863     3.77 %     1,845,870       17,324     3.77 %     1,601,826       12,485     3.09 %
    Time deposits   2,427,737       29,259     4.79 %     2,453,154       29,139     4.78 %     2,438,112       24,301     3.95 %
    Total interest-bearing deposits   4,397,183       47,153     4.27 %     4,384,467       46,495     4.27 %     4,134,641       36,818     3.53 %
    Borrowings   143,479       1,561     4.33 %     169,525       1,896     4.50 %     120,381       753     2.48 %
    Subordinated debentures   130,403       1,652     5.07 %     130,239       1,649     5.07 %     129,780       1,646     5.07 %
    Total interest-bearing liabilities   4,671,065       50,366     4.29 %     4,684,231       50,040     4.30 %     4,384,802       39,217     3.55 %
                                                   
    Noninterest-bearing liabilities and equity:                                              
    Demand deposits: noninterest-bearing   1,908,833                 1,883,765                 2,136,156            
    Other liabilities   171,987                 162,543                 159,127            
    Stockholders’ equity   784,250                 775,078                 754,660            
                                                   
    Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity $ 7,536,135               $ 7,505,617               $ 7,434,745            
                                                   
    Net interest income       $ 50,051               $ 48,620               $ 54,855      
                                                   
    Cost of deposits             2.97 %               2.98 %               2.33 %
    Net interest spread (taxable equivalent basis)             1.19 %               1.16 %               1.64 %
    Net interest margin (taxable equivalent basis)             2.74 %               2.69 %               3.03 %
                                                   
    (1)       Includes average loans held for sale        
    (2)       Income calculated on a fully taxable equivalent basis using the federal tax rate in effect for the periods presented.  

     


    Hanmi Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries
    Average Balance, Average Yield Earned, and Average Rate Paid (Unaudited)
    (Dollars in thousands)

      Nine Months Ended  
      September 30, 2024     September 30, 2023  
            Interest   Average           Interest   Average  
      Average     Income /   Yield /     Average     Income /   Yield /  
      Balance     Expense   Rate     Balance     Expense   Rate  
    Assets                              
    Interest-earning assets:                              
    Loans receivable (1) $ 6,113,214     $ 274,608     6.00 %   $ 5,933,525     $ 249,888     5.63 %
    Securities (2)   978,439       15,717     2.17 %     969,146       12,356     1.73 %
    FHLB stock   16,385       1,076     8.77 %     16,385       888     7.25 %
    Interest-bearing deposits in other banks   188,290       7,269     5.16 %     247,581       9,012     4.87 %
    Total interest-earning assets   7,296,328       298,670     5.47 %     7,166,637       272,144     5.08 %
                                   
    Noninterest-earning assets:                              
    Cash and due from banks   56,217                 62,354            
    Allowance for credit losses   (68,305 )               (71,236 )          
    Other assets   249,517                 237,111            
                                   
    Total assets $ 7,533,757               $ 7,394,866            
                                   
    Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity                              
    Interest-bearing liabilities:                              
    Deposits:                              
    Demand: interest-bearing $ 85,158     $ 92     0.14 %   $ 100,997     $ 88     0.12 %
    Money market and savings   1,849,053       51,740     3.74 %     1,506,776       29,687     2.63 %
    Time deposits   2,462,779       87,454     4.74 %     2,355,923       64,656     3.67 %
    Total interest-bearing deposits   4,396,990       139,286     4.23 %     3,963,696       94,431     3.19 %
    Borrowings   158,419       5,112     4.31 %     194,530       4,755     3.27 %
    Subordinated debentures   130,244       4,948     5.06 %     129,632       4,828     4.97 %
    Total interest-bearing liabilities   4,685,653       149,346     4.26 %     4,287,858       104,014     3.24 %
                                   
    Noninterest-bearing liabilities and equity:                              
    Demand deposits: noninterest-bearing   1,904,611                 2,223,891            
    Other liabilities   166,372                 140,070            
    Stockholders’ equity   777,121                 743,047            
                                   
    Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity $ 7,533,757               $ 7,394,866            
                                   
    Net interest income       $ 149,324               $ 168,130      
                                   
    Cost of deposits             2.95 %               2.04 %
    Net interest spread (taxable equivalent basis)             1.21 %               1.84 %
    Net interest margin (taxable equivalent basis)             2.74 %               3.14 %
                                   
    (1)       Includes average loans held for sale  
    (2)       Amounts calculated on a fully taxable equivalent basis using the federal tax rate in effect for the periods presented.  


    Non-GAAP Financial Measures

    Tangible Common Equity to Tangible Assets Ratio

    Tangible common equity to tangible assets ratio is supplemental financial information determined by a method other than in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). This non-GAAP measure is used by management in the analysis of Hanmi’s capital strength. Tangible common equity is calculated by subtracting goodwill and other intangible assets from stockholders’ equity. Banking and financial institution regulators also exclude goodwill and other intangible assets from stockholders’ equity when assessing the capital adequacy of a financial institution. Management believes the presentation of this financial measure excluding the impact of these items provides useful supplemental information that is essential to a proper understanding of the capital strength of Hanmi. This disclosure should not be viewed as a substitute for results determined in accordance with GAAP, nor is it necessarily comparable to non-GAAP performance measures that may be presented by other companies.

    The following table reconciles this non-GAAP performance measure to the GAAP performance measure for the periods indicated:

    Tangible Common Equity to Tangible Assets Ratio (Unaudited)
    (In thousands, except share, per share data and ratios)

      September 30,     June 30,     March 31,     December 31,     September 30,  
    Hanmi Financial Corporation 2024     2024     2024     2023     2023  
    Assets $ 7,712,299     $ 7,586,347     $ 7,512,046     $ 7,570,341     $ 7,350,140  
    Less goodwill and other intangible assets   (11,031 )     (11,048 )     (11,074 )     (11,099 )     (11,131 )
    Tangible assets $ 7,701,268     $ 7,575,299     $ 7,500,972     $ 7,559,242     $ 7,339,009  
                                 
    Stockholders’ equity (1) $ 736,709     $ 707,059     $ 703,100     $ 701,891     $ 663,359  
    Less goodwill and other intangible assets   (11,031 )     (11,048 )     (11,074 )     (11,099 )     (11,131 )
    Tangible stockholders’ equity (1) $ 725,678     $ 696,011     $ 692,026     $ 690,792     $ 652,228  
                                 
    Stockholders’ equity to assets   9.55 %     9.32 %     9.36 %     9.27 %     9.03 %
    Tangible common equity to tangible assets (1)   9.42 %     9.19 %     9.23 %     9.14 %     8.89 %
                                 
    Common shares outstanding   30,196,755       30,272,110       30,276,358       30,368,655       30,410,582  
    Tangible common equity per common share $ 24.03     $ 22.99     $ 22.86     $ 22.75     $ 21.45  
                                 
    (1)      There were no preferred shares outstanding at the periods indicated.  

    The MIL Network –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Rob Roy Glacier bridge open again

    Source: Department of Conservation

    Date:  23 October 2024

    DOC Operations Manager Charlie Sklenar says this is fantastic news ahead of summer.

    “Rob Roy is a popular area of Tititea/Mt Aspiring National Park and sees a huge number of visitors, especially during the summer months.

    Rob Roy suspension bridge
    Image: DOC

    “Engineering advice sought by DOC last year showed both Rob Roy and Blue Pools bridges could not sustain their current usage, and the Makarora River suspension bridge needed to be fully replaced.

    “For the Rob Roy Glacier Track, visitor numbers were projected to increase from their previous daily averages of 180 people. As a result, a safety assessment was made which led to the decision to upgrade the bridge.”

    Work to upgrade the Rob Roy suspension bridge included in-depth engineering, geotechnical and design assessments, complex rock drilling and structural work to improve the bridge’s ability to bear weight.

    “Engineers have now inspected the completed bridge work and with all testing successfully certified late last week, we are happy to say the bridge is now open again to the public.

    “Our field team has now removed the closure signage, and the DOC website has been updated to show that the track has reopened.

    “We know people will take the opportunity to make the most of the Rob Roy Track and its upgraded bridge, and we’re looking forward to a great summer,” says Charlie.

    Construction work on the Blue Pools and Makarora River bridges and replacement of the raised timber boardwalk connecting these two bridges is ongoing. Some delays have been experienced due to severe weather in previous months. These delays will unfortunately extend the closure period for this site; however, DOC remains committed to reopening it this summer.

    Background information

    The Makarora and Blue Pools bridges provide high-water access to the Young Valley and Gillespie Pass Circuit. Trampers should have river crossing skills and experience if they are undertaking this advanced tramp.

    Do not cross if the river is flooded, you cannot find safe entry and exit points or are unsure it’s safe. Turn back or wait for the river to drop. If in doubt, stay out.

    There is no access to the Blue Pools, however a shortened forest walk remains open. 

    Note: There are public conservation areas across the region that remain under snow and at risk of avalanche. With Labour Day fast approaching, trampers and adventurers are recommended to check the conditions before they head out.

    Contact

    For media enquiries contact:

    Email: media@doc.govt.nz

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Kuwait formally accepts Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies

    Source: WTO

    Headline: Kuwait formally accepts Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies

    Director-General Okonjo-Iweala said: “I warmly welcome Kuwait’s instrument of acceptance of the Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies – the seventh received from the Arab region. As a significant importer of marine fish products, Kuwait is making a key contribution towards the sustainability of marine fisheries by committing to implement the agreement. Eliminating illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing activities is essential to advancing global food security.”
    Reaffirming Kuwait’s support for the multilateral trading system and for sustainable fishing practices, H.E. Al-Hayen emphasized that Kuwait’s actions reflect a commitment to promote fair and sustainable international trade, while also contributing to the preservation of global fishery resources. “Kuwait recognizes the importance of this agreement in combating illegal fishing practices and protecting marine ecosystems, aligning with its obligations under the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 14,” he stressed.
    Commending the WTO’s ongoing efforts in addressing global challenges, Ambassador Al-Hayen also said: “A shared commitment to environmental sustainability and multilateral cooperation is crucial to secure the future of the next generations.  Kuwait stands ready to collaborate closely with all WTO members to ensure the successful implementation of this vital agreement.”
    Kuwait is the fourth Gulf Cooperation Council member to have formally accepted the Agreement. A total of 25 more formal acceptances are needed to reach two-thirds of the WTO membership required for its entry into force.Adopted by consensus at the WTO’s 12th Ministerial Conference (MC12) held in Geneva in June 2022, the Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies sets new, binding, multilateral rules to curb harmful subsidies, which are a key factor in the widespread depletion of the world’s fish stocks. In addition, the Agreement recognizes the needs of developing economies and least-developed countries and establishes a fund to provide technical assistance and capacity-building to help them implement the obligations.The Agreement prohibits subsidies for illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, for fishing overfished stocks, and for fishing on the unregulated high seas.Members also agreed at MC12 to continue negotiations on outstanding issues, with a view to adopting additional provisions that would further enhance the disciplines of the Agreement.
    The full text of the Agreement can be accessed here. The list of members that have deposited their instruments of acceptance is available here. Information for members on how to accept the Protocol of Amendment can be found here.

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    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: WTO regional trade policy course underway in Saudi Arabia

    Source: World Trade Organization

    Throughout the course, experts from the WTO Secretariat, regional institutions and King Saud University will share their expertise on tariff schedules, agriculture, trade remedies, services, intellectual property rights, e-commerce and fisheries subsidies, among other topics. The course will provide an opportunity for increased collaboration and knowledge-sharing.

    Commending Saudi Arabia’s active participation in the WTO, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told participants in a video message: “These regional trade policy courses were set up over 20 years ago to address the realities and interests of member economies across various regions. … We hope that it will also serve as a platform for you to discuss ways to strengthen, reform, and modernize the multilateral trading system – a crucial conversation that your respective representatives are actively pursuing in Geneva, as they work to ensure the organization is fit for purpose in the face of emerging challenges.”

    DG Okonjo-Iweala also encouraged all WTO members to ratify the Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies promptly, highlighting its significance for the sustainability of ocean resources.

    In his opening address, the President of King Saud University Dr Abdullah Alsalman emphasized how the WTO – as a forum for international cooperation – aligns with “Saudi Vision 2030“, under which the government is implementing initiatives to diversify the country’s economy: “Our effort to host this WTO initiative is part of our university’s contribution to achieving the goals of “Saudi Vision 2030”. More than ever, this vision seeks to strengthen the nation’s cooperation with the WTO and boost international trade. Saudi Arabia is both a benefactor and a beneficiary of a prosperous and regulated global economy.”

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    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Dot plots for the Eurosystem? | Speech at Harvard University

    Source: Bundesbank

    Check against delivery.

    1 Introduction

    Ladies and gentlemen,

    it is a great pleasure to be at Harvard again, to meet long time companions like Hans-Helmut Kotz and to exchange ideas with top scientists such as Benjamin Friedman. When I was in this round two years ago, we were dealing with an unprecedented global inflation spike.[1] Fortunately, the worst is behind us, and inflation in the euro area is heading back to the Eurosystem’s target. We have not brought the inflation ship safely back into the 2% harbour, but the port is in sight. Thus, I can focus on another question today.

    Before I do that, let me share an analogy to set the stage for my discussion. Back in the 1970s and 1980s, the field of economics was split into two seemingly incompatible schools of thought: New Keynesian and New Classical. Their proponents were not too polite in their language, calling assumptions “foolishly restrictive” or comparing an opponent to someone attempting to pass himself off as Napoleon Bonaparte.[2] But, over time, ideas from both camps ultimately merged to form a consensus called the New Neoclassical Synthesis, the very foundation of modern macroeconomics.[3] Gregory Mankiw neatly described this story in his essay “The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer”.[4]

    The takeaway from this analogy is that complex issues are rarely black or white. With this in mind, I want to explore whether the conduct of monetary policy in the euro area could be enhanced by offering more detailed and nuanced information regarding its future outlook. More specifically, today I will address the following question: Should the Eurosystem introduce dot plots?

    To explore this, I will first examine current experience with dot plots and other forms of forward guidance in both the United States and the euro area. I will then evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of incorporating dot plots into the Eurosystem’s communication strategy. In this analysis, I will concentrate on the implications for policymakers’ independence, the effectiveness of monetary policy and the management of uncertainty.

    2 The dot plot and other forms of forward guidance

    Let me begin with some basics. Most central banks in advanced economies have a clear mandate to keep prices stable. They do this mainly by setting the policy rate and communicating their decisions in order to manage the expectations of economic agents, including market participants, households and firms. When central banks provide explicit signals about the future path of the policy rate, we call it forward guidance.

    We can classify forward guidance into two ideal types: “Odyssean” and “Delphic”.[5] Odyssean forward guidance means the central bank makes a firm commitment to a future course of action, like promising to keep interest rates at a certain level for a certain time. Like Odysseus, who famously tied himself to the mast of his ship to resist the call of the sirens, central banks are committing to staying on course – whatever the future brings.

    In contrast, Delphic forward guidance is conditional and involves sharing information about the central bank’s economic outlook and policy intentions without making firm commitments. This term comes from the Oracle of Delphi, famous for its prophecies and predictions, which were so ambiguous and open to interpretation that they always seemed to be borne out in hindsight. A prime example of Delphic forward guidance is the policy rate forecasts published by central banks such as Norges Bank and Sweden’s Riksbank.

    A more subtle way of monetary policy communication is through the central bank’s reaction function. A reaction function indicates how the central bank adjusts its policy rate in response to key macroeconomic variables like the inflation rate or economic growth. When economic agents have a clear understanding of this reaction function, communication about the expected development of these macroeconomic variables can also help shape their expectations regarding the future trajectory of the policy rate.

    2.1 The Fed’s dot plot

    To consider if the Eurosystem should introduce dot plots, let me briefly recall what the Fed dot plots are and how market observers view them. Twelve years ago, the Fed began publishing the federal funds rate projections of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants. Its intention was to boost transparency and communication with financial markets and the general public. On the other side of the Atlantic, the Eurosystem has, from its inception, held public press conferences and published monetary policy statements, the minutes of its meetings, and the results of its quarterly macroeconomic projections.

    As you are well aware, before the FOMC meeting, FOMC participants share their individual assessment of the appropriate level of the fed funds rate for the end of the current year, the end of the coming two to three years and over the longer run. The longer run projection refers to “each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy.”[6]

    Due to its visual representation in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the combined projections of all FOMC members are known as the dot plot. These dots complement the FOMC participants’ projections for GDP growth, unemployment and inflation. While each FOMC participant submits their funds rate projection together with corresponding projections for macroeconomic variables, these correspondences are not revealed by the SEP. Accordingly, market observers cannot directly link the interest rate projections to the projections of the other macro variables.

    The dot plot was meant to complement the Fed’s communication, not to replace the forward guidance it provided in the monetary policy statement at that time during the press conference. For example, in January 2012, the FOMC statement provided explicit forward guidance on rates, saying that the Committee “[…] anticipates that economic conditions […] are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.”[7] During the accompanying press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke introduced the dot plot, observing that “[…] eleven participants expect that the appropriate federal funds rate at the end of 2014 will be at or below 1 percent, while six participants anticipate higher rates at that time.”[8]

    Although the Federal Reserve did not introduce the dot plots as an explicit tool for forward guidance, many market analysts began to interpret them as such. When the forward guidance in the statement and the dot plot sent mixed signals, FOMC chairs often downplayed the dot plot’s importance.

    In 2014, Janet Yellen famously stated: “[…] one should not look to the dot plot, so to speak, as the primary way in which the Committee wants to or is speaking about policy […].”[9] Similarly, in 2019, Jerome Powell noted that “[…] the dot plot has, on occasion, been a source of confusion. Until now, forward guidance in the statement has been a main tool for communicating committee intentions and minimizing that confusion.”[10]

    And this is also how Fed watchers now see the dot plot, ranking it as the Fed’s fifth most important communication tool.[11] The top communication tools are the press conference, the Summary of Economic Projections (excluding the dots), the FOMC statement, and speeches by the chair.

    Numerous studies show that the Fed has successfully used monetary policy communication to influence long-term interest rates and other asset prices.[12] And some research suggests that the dot plots significantly and independently influence market interest rates. [13] But there is a fundamental issue about these results: it is very challenging to determine how much each communication channel contributes to the overall effect.

    To identify the causal effect of monetary policy, scholars often define a so-called event window around central banks’ monetary policy meetings. Changes in market interest rates during this event window are then attributed to monetary policy.

    But there is a problem: when the dot plot is released, it is published together with the monetary policy statement. That makes it hard to determine which one caused the interest rate changes observed during the event. And because of this, it is unclear whether those channels actually provide complementary information or are just substitutes.

    2.2 Monetary policy communication at the Eurosystem

    So, what does the Eurosystem’s monetary policy communication look like? The Eurosystem began using explicit forward guidance in the introductory statement to its July 2013 meeting. At that time, inflation in the euro area was low, and the Eurosystem expected underlying price pressures to stay subdued in the medium term. Interest rates were already at the effective zero lower bound.

    To provide further accommodation, the ECB’s Governing Council, which is the counterpart of the FOMC, announced in its July 2013 meeting that it “expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.”[14] The Governing Council continued to use variations of this statement for almost a decade. And there is now also ample evidence that the Eurosystem has been successful in implementing its forward guidance.[15]

    With the resurgence of inflation in 2021 and high uncertainty caused by major shocks and structural changes, the Eurosystem shifted to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, largely stepping away from explicit forward guidance.

    More specifically, we now base our interest rate decisions on three elements: first, our assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, second, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and third, the strength of monetary policy transmission. These three elements can be seen as a further specification of our reaction function. However, the Governing Council does not pre-commit to any specific rate path.

    Taken together, apart from the publication of the dot plot, the approaches to monetary policy communication taken by the Federal Reserve System and the Eurosystem are largely comparable. Both institutions regard the monetary policy statement and the press conference as their primary communication tools. And both central banks have recently shifted from explicit forward guidance towards a data-dependent meeting-by-meeting approach.

    But the Eurosystem also continues to provide signals about future policy rates. It simply does it more implicitly. For example, the wording of the monetary policy statement and the answers of the ECB President during press conferences provide insights into future policy rates. As do speeches and interviews given by Governing Council members. Additionally, the Eurosystem influences market expectations through its quarterly staff projections.[16]

    Unlike some other central banks, the Eurosystem uses the interest rate implied by financial market prices on a specific cut-off day as a conditioning assumption for its macroeconomic projections. Specifically, this means that our medium-term inflation forecast aligns with market expectations for a particular policy rate path. Market participants can subsequently compare the exogenous path for the policy rate, as embedded in our macroeconomic projections, with our actual monetary policy decisions, in order to gain insights into our reaction function.

    You could say that the Eurosystem provides Athenian communication. Athena was known as the Goddess of wisdom and as a protector and guide to many Greek heroes. Rather than communicating directly with those she protected, Athena often used indirect guidance. And through her subtle guidance, Athena empowered the heroes she protected to take decisive action and make wise choices.

    3 A dot plot for the Eurosystem?

    Now, let us get to the heart of the matter. Should the Eurosystem introduce dot plots? Although this question can only be answered “yes” or “no”, complex issues are rarely black and white, as mentioned earlier.

    In the following, rather than simply listing the pros and cons of introducing dot plots in the Eurosystem, I will structure my discussion around three themes: First, the impact dot plots could have on the independence of the Eurosystem. Second, the potential for dot plots to improve the effectiveness of our monetary policy communication. And third, the role dot plots could play in capturing projection uncertainty around our baseline forecasts.

    Throughout, I will only consider adding projections for the policy rates to the existing macroeconomic projections by Eurosystem staff. For simplicity, I will not consider whether to also complement our current consensus projections for macroeconomic variables with individual macroeconomic projections.

    3.1 Independence

    Let me begin with the theme of independence. The ECB’s Governing Council consists of the six ECB Executive Board members and the 20 governors of the euro area’s national central banks. Although this setting may resemble that of the Federal Open Market Committee, which includes Federal Reserve Bank Presidents, there is a significant difference.

    The euro area is not composed of regions within a single country but of individual countries within a larger union, each with its own fiscal authority and national laws, as well as considerable differences in economic size and performance. Therefore, within the Governing Council we have a strong interest in finding and communicating a consensus perspective. This is, for example, enshrined in our statute, which states that the proceedings of the meetings of the Governing Council are confidential.

    When we discussed introducing ECB accounts from our Governing Council meetings – comparable to the published minutes of FOMC meetings – about a decade ago, we aimed to balance two things: On the one hand, to clearly articulate the consensus perspective. Yet on the other hand to represent the full spectrum of views in order to help market participants better understand the ECB Governing Council’s decision-making process.[17]

    In the end, the Eurosystem decided to represent the full spectrum of the discussion without naming individuals. Nevertheless, despite the anonymity of the arguments presented, markets and the media alike continue to attempt to discern the identities of the individuals behind them. Given that numerous members of the Governing Council express their views on monetary policy through speeches and interviews, identifying their positions is not a particular challenge.

    If there were anonymous dot plots of Governing Council members, media and the markets alike would probably attempt to match individual members to each dot as well. The primary distinction between speeches and dot plots is that Governing Council members deliver speeches voluntarily. In contrast, dot plots would force all Governing Council members to regularly articulate their perspectives on the future trajectory of interest rates. And this could potentially influence the Governing Council’s independence.

    Once national stakeholders become aware of “their” representative’s views on future interest rates, they may exert pressure on the representative to align with national interests. I am confident that, even if we were to publish dot plots, every member of the Governing Council would continue to act independently and in the best interests of the entire euro area. However, I believe we are well advised not to put ourselves in a situation that might increase pressure on us to act in ways others want us to.

    3.2 Effectiveness of monetary policy communication

    My second theme is whether a dot plot could significantly enhance the Eurosystem’s effectiveness of monetary policy communication. And here I am sceptical. To begin with, there is the previously discussed issue: the dot plot may conflict with the consensus message conveyed in the monetary policy statement. But the main reason for my scepticism is that comparative studies on different methods of monetary policy communication are inconclusive.

    A BIS working paper shows that interest rate projections provide additional information to macroeconomic projections, meaning that they are not redundant.[18] That could be seen as an argument for introducing dot plots. However, while market participants in countries that publish both interest rate projections and macroeconomic projections prefer the former, they might still be able to obtain sufficient information from macroeconomic projections alone.

    Furthermore, research on central bank communication in Norway and Sweden shows that publishing interest rate projections has not improved market understanding of what new macroeconomic information implies for future interest rate.[19] In other words, the publication of interest rate paths did not help market participants better understand the central banks’ reaction functions.

    This finding aligns with research published by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that shows that announcements with interest rate forecasts and those with only written statements lead to similar market reactions across the yield curve.[20] The authors pointedly conclude that, while central bank communication is important, the exact form it takes is less relevant.

    This result echoes a seminal study by Blinder and co-authors, who concluded back in 2008 that there was no consensus on what constitutes an optimal communication strategy.[21]

    All things considered, I see no compelling evidence that the Eurosystem’s monetary policy communication would be significantly enhanced by the introduction of a dot plot.

    3.3 Projection uncertainty

    Now to the third and final theme – uncertainty. I am quite sure that the Eurosystem has room to improve how we handle projection uncertainty. Currently, the ECB’s Governing Council summarises its view on the uncertainty surrounding economic growth and inflation in the risk assessment section of its monetary policy statement. More specifically, the Eurosystem addresses the uncertainty around its baseline inflation forecast in two ways.[22]

    First, it produces fan charts with symmetric ranges around the point forecast, based on past projection errors. In this setup, past projection errors act as a catch-all proxy for uncertainty. Second, it occasionally publishes risk scenarios, conditional on assumptions different from those in the baseline projection. For instance, during the pandemic, the Eurosystem began using alternative assumptions about the future path of infections and contact restrictions to illustrate macroeconomic uncertainty.

    Could the use of dot plots enhance the communication of inflation forecast uncertainty within the Eurosystem? Given that dot plots offer only an indirect method for conveying uncertainty about the inflation outlook, there may be more effective alternatives.

    One might be to enhance the communication of our existing measures of uncertainty. Another might be to develop new measures, such as scenario and sensitivity analyses, as well as improved fan charts. We must carefully evaluate the pros and cons of each approach.

    Hence, it is quite fitting that the Eurosystem is currently performing an interim strategic review, which includes an analysis of how risk and uncertainty should inform both policy decisions and policy communication. I’m already looking forward to the results.

    4 Conclusion

    Ladies and gentlemen, let me conclude. I began my talk by discussing different schools of thought – New Keynesian and New Classical – and argued that complex issues are rarely black or white. When it comes to central bank communication about the future, there are certainly many promising approaches. And, undoubtedly, dot plots are an intriguing instrument for central bank communication.

    However, given the prevailing evidence, I do not see a compelling case for introducing dot plots for the Eurosystem.

    On the other hand, I firmly believe that we can and should enhance how we account for uncertainty in our macroeconomic projections. I have outlined a few options which the Eurosystem will address in the ongoing strategy review.

    Footnotes:

    1. Nagel, J. (2022), The ECB’s mandate: maintaining price stability in the euro area, speech at the Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University.
    2. Mankiw, G. (2006), The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 20(4), pp. 29-46.
    3. Goodfriend, M. and R. King (1997), The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Bernanke, B. and J. Rotemberg (eds.), MIT Press, pp. 231-283.
    4. Mankiw, G. (2006), op. cit.
    5. Campbell, J. et al. (2012), Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 43(1), pp. 1-80. Another distinction is between time-dependent (or calendar-dependent) and state-dependent forward guidance. The former ties monetary policy to a specific time frame, whereas the latter ties future policy actions to specific economic conditions or thresholds. The concepts can overlap and be used in combination.
    6. SEP: Compilation and Summary of Individual Economic Projections, 24-25 January 2012.
    7. FOMC Statement, 25 January 2012.
    8. Bernanke, B. (2012), Transcript of Chairman Bernanke’s Press Conference, 25 January 2012,
    9. Yellen, J. (2014), Transcript of Chair Yellen’s Press Conference, 19 March 2014.
    10. Powell, J. (2019), Monetary Policy: Normalization and the Road Ahead, speech at the SIEPR Economic Summit, Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research, Stanford, California.
    11. Wessel, D. and S. Boocker (2024), Federal Reserve communication – survey results, Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at Brookings.
    12. See, for example, Gürkaynak, R. et al. (2005), Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, Vol. 1(1), pp. 55-93; Wright, J. (2012), What Does Monetary Policy Do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?, Economic Journal, Vol. 122(564), pp. 447-466; and Swanson, E. (2021), Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 118(C), pp. 32-53.
    13. See, for example, Couture, C. (2021), Financial market effects of FOMC projections, Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 67 and Hillenbrand, S. (2023), The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates, Accepted, Review of Financial Studies.
    14. Draghi, M. and V. Constâncio (2013), Introductory statement to the press conference (with Q&A), Frankfurt am Main, 4 July 2013.
    15. See, for example, Altavilla, C. et al. (2021), Assessing the efficacy, efficiency and potential side effects of the ECB’s monetary policy instruments since 2014, ECB Occasional Paper, No. 278; Andrade, P. and F. Ferroni (2021), Delphic and Odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. (117), pp. 816-832; Kerssenfischer, M. (2022), Information effects of euro area monetary policy, Economics Letters, Vol. 216(C); and Monetary Policy Committee, Taskforce on Rate Forward Guidance and Reinvestment (2022), Rate forward guidance in an environment of large central bank balance sheets: A Eurosystem stock-taking assessment, ECB Occasional Paper No. 290.
    16. The Eurosystem produces macroeconomic projections four times a year. ECB staff produces them in March and September. In June and December, they are co-produced by ECB and national central bank staff.
    17. See Morris, S. and H. Shin (2005): Central Bank Transparency and the Signal Value of Prices, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol.36(2), pp. 1-66 for a general treatment of the role of transparency.
    18. Hofmann, B. and D. Xia (2022), Quantitative forward guidance through interest rate projections, BIS Working Paper No. 1009.
    19. Natvik, G. et al. (2020), Does publication of interest rate paths provide guidance?, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 103.
    20. Detmers, G.-A (2021), Quantitative or Qualitative Forward Guidance: Does it Matter?, Economic Record, Vol. 97(319), pp. 491-503.
    21. Blinder, A. et al. (2008), Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 46(4), pp. 910-945.
    22. See ECB (2024), ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, March 2023, box 6 for a rundown.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Kaine, Colleagues Urge President Biden to Protect Undersea Cables from China, Russia

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Virginia Tim Kaine
    WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, joined a bipartisan group of colleagues in sending a letter to President Biden expressing concerns about the security of the global network of undersea communications and energy cables upon which American workers and businesses rely.
    More than 95% of international internet traffic travels via these undersea cables, resulting in trillions of dollars in financial transactions each day. The locations of these cables are often openly published to prevent accidental damage.
    As American companies look to expand and invest in this critical infrastructure, it is imperative that the United States has a complete understanding of existing vulnerabilities, especially those that impact our economic and national security.
    “America’s adversaries have been developing their capabilities to attack or disrupt critical undersea infrastructure. There is a long tradition, dating back well over a century, of belligerents attacking their opponents’ underwater communications lines in the first phase of a conflict,” the senators wrote. “Given these threats and challenges, it is imperative that the United States undertake a review of existing vulnerabilities to global undersea cable infrastructure, including the threat of sabotage by Russia as well as the growing role of the People’s Republic of China in cable laying and repair. If we are truly to deepen vital commercial and security relationships with willing partners and allies, this must be a national priority.”
    In addition to Kaine, U.S. Senators Todd Young (R-IN), Chris Murphy (D-CT), Marco Rubio (R-FL), Pete Ricketts (R-NE), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Dan Sullivan (R-AK), and Brian Schatz (D-HI) also signed the letter.
    Read the full text of the letter to President Biden here and below:
    Dear Mr. President: 
    We write to you to express our concern about the security of global undersea communications and energy cables, especially those that impact America’s economic and national security and that of our allies and partners. As you are well aware, more than 95% of international internet traffic travels via undersea cables, including trillions of dollars in financial transactions each day. Moreover, the exact locations of most of these cables are openly published in order to reduce the likelihood of accidental damage from ships’ anchors or fishing activities. Internet and telecommunications providers, including American firms, intend to invest billions of dollars in expanding the global network of undersea communications cables. Additionally, energy transmission cables are proliferating as governments look to new sources of electricity generation. 
    America’s adversaries have been developing their capabilities to attack or disrupt critical undersea infrastructure. There is a long tradition, dating back well over a century, of belligerents attacking their opponents’ underwater communications lines in the first phase of a conflict. For example, in both World Wars, Britain’s first naval actions were to cut the telegraph cables connecting Germany to the Americas, and in 1918 a German U-boat severed lines connecting New York to both Nova Scotia and Panama. In addition to this kind of overt, kinetic attack, the nature of undersea infrastructure increases the feasibility of gray zone actions with plausible deniability. It is difficult to distinguish between an accident and a deliberate action on the seabed, and more difficult still to confirm who conducted such an action. On top of this, because this infrastructure is privately owned by commercial enterprises, repairs are the responsibility of these private companies, which are likely not prepared to maintain them under wartime conditions and are likely to seek the most cost-effective repair and maintenance options—even if that option is owned or operated by a foreign adversary or strategic competitor. 
    Given these threats and challenges, it is imperative that the United States undertake a review of existing vulnerabilities to global undersea cable infrastructure, including the threat of sabotage by Russia as well as the growing role of the People’s Republic of China in cable laying and repair. If we are truly to deepen vital commercial and security relationships with willing partners and allies, this must be a national priority. We respectfully request that you provide responses to the following questions and direct senior administration officials to brief Members of Congress, including members of relevant committees of jurisdiction, on your plans and the resources and authorities needed to carry them out.
    1) What is your Administration’s overall strategy to guarantee the security of America’s undersea infrastructure and to promote the security of that of our allies and partners? 
    2) The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020 established the Cable Security Fleet (CSF). If authorized and sufficiently funded, what would be your assessment of the ideal size of the U.S.-flagged and -operated cable laying and repair vessel fleet to ensure sufficient cable repair capacity during a conflict or national emergency? How can the United States work with trusted allies and partners for additional capacity to support the expansion and repair of trusted undersea cable networks? 
    3) What is the Administration’s strategy to encourage other nations to choose trusted suppliers in their selection of undersea cable manufacturers, particularly in any nation of concern or which may be vulnerable to coercion or covert action by America’s adversaries? 
    4) How is the Administration working with the private sector to ensure that commercial enterprises’ investments in undersea cables align with U.S. national security priorities? 
    5) How do you intend to protect the physical security of undersea cables in the open ocean, including through any interpretation of customary international law? 
    6) How is the Administration working multilaterally to collectively enhance security and monitor potential threats to undersea infrastructure, including through NATO, the Quad, and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity? 
    Thank you for your prompt attention to this request. As Congress works to continue its oversight of national security, it is vital that we understand the current state of the information backbone of our economy and efforts to protect it. 
    Sincerely, 

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The Canadian Arctic shows how understanding the effects of climate change requires long-term vision

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By James Schaefer, Professor of Biology, Trent University

    Embrace change, they say, or become a casualty. This adage weighed heavily on my mind during my latest research trip to the Arctic. Repeatedly, I found myself clutching the .303 calibre rifle over my shoulder — a piece of equipment I once considered unnecessary.

    As my research assistants and I crossed the tundra of Victoria Island in northern Canada, firearms were only the most obvious addition to our gear. Each of us carried a whistle around our neck, a canister of bear spray on our hip, and new alertness in our routine. Back at our camp near Wellington Bay, Nunavut, an electric fence surrounded our tents. Grizzly bears were new inhabitants on this island. Safety called for different provisions and a different mindset.

    After three decades, I had returned north with a purpose: to assess how tundra plants were responding in a rapidly changing climate. For my assistants and me, the plan was straightforward. We would return to the exact sites I had studied some 30 years earlier, to evaluate how they had changed during those intervening years.

    By the end, I learned a more fundamental point: that perseverance, and long-term planning, are the key to enabling scientific progress and unlocking ecological secrets.



    Read more:
    2023 was the hottest year in history — and Canada is warming faster than anywhere else on earth

    Alarming pace of change

    In the Arctic, the pace of environmental change is especially troubling. Species like grizzlies and orcas are advancing northward, weather is more volatile and sea ice is shrinking — driven by temperatures rising nearly four times more quickly than the global average.

    The Arctic is the earth’s air conditioner. Disruptions at the top of the world could reverberate elsewhere.

    While the significance of the Arctic is planetary, an encounter with the land is intensely personal.

    North of the treeline, in the expanse of arctic tundra, you take in the whole horizon. In summer, you hear the distant bugling of cranes and geese as you walk boundlessly in the midnight sun.

    In winter, you may come upon a band of caribou as you travel atop the wind-sculpted snow. Once you’ve stood north of the treeline, your worldview is transformed.

    I am one of those transformed individuals. As a graduate student in the 1990s, I resided at Ekalluktok — a special place on the south coast of Victoria Island where the migrations of char and caribou intersect, where Inuit have lived for thousands of years. Here I studied the abundance and variety of tundra plants.

    Today, the Arctic has already blown past 2 C of warming. Understanding the effects of climate change on this island could provide insights into the dynamics of change across the entire Arctic region.

    Plants, foundation of the food chain, are a top research priority. Shifts in the flora are likely to be consequential to herbivores such as muskoxen and caribou — and therefore to people.

    Measuring change

    Nature reveals her swings and proclivities with reluctance. To prise open those mysteries, I added a key ingredient: time. On this return trip, I intended to walk back decades to uncover the response of plants in an altered climate by using precisely the same methods at precisely the same locations as I had in the 1990s.

    For deciphering ecological change, it’s a potent recipe: measure, add decades, repeat.

    Measuring the vegetation, I knew, would be straightforward. In the wry words of the pioneering British botanist, John Harper, “plants stand still and wait to be counted.”

    Our more immediate challenge was finding those same locations. Three decades earlier, in the days before GPS, I had marked each location with a metal stake. Now, I trusted that stakes, too, “stand still and wait to be revisited.”

    For weeks, my assistants and I scoured the land for those stakes, guided by maps, memory and a metal detector. And our search — sometimes easy and direct, sometimes meandering and desperate — yielded 98 per cent of them.



    Read more:
    Accepting uncertainty in sustainable fisheries is essential in a rapidly changing Arctic

    At each stake, we bent low, occasionally on hands and knees, to tally the abundance of sedges, shrubs, lichens and diminutive wildflowers. It was a repeat performance from my original study almost three decades earlier.

    Those repeat observations revealed long-term shifts in vegetation, some unexpected.

    Grasses and sedges increased substantially, an example of arctic greening, regarded as one of the world’s clearest illustrations of climate change effects. Some species — notably purple saxifrage, the official flower of Nunavut — declined dramatically, contributing to arctic browning.

    Many other plants showed no apparent change, suggesting climatic resilience, at least over decades. But across the Arctic, the picture of vegetation change remains incomplete, complicated by variations among species and regions. Sustained science will be needed to unravel this ecological complexity.

    Funding the long-term

    That broader message, unforeseen to me at the outset, is now clear.

    Without precisely paired observations, the vegetation shifts at Ekalluktok would have been indistinct. Elegant in their simplicity, repeat observations offer a double vantage point: an instant retrospective for decoding the past and a foundation for monitoring the future.

    But long-term studies are still uncommon. They demand sustained investment, at odds with conventional, short-term cycles of scientific training and funding.

    Managing change starts with awareness. And in a changing world, sustained science will be essential to interpret, mitigate and steer us along a favourable path. Conservation is not a sprint, but a determined trek toward better understanding and a better future.

    James Schaefer received funding from Arctic Species Conservation Fund (WWF-Canada), Kenneth M. Molson Charitable Foundation, Northern Studies Training Program (Polar Knowledge Canada), Symons Trust for Canadian Studies, and Trent University.

    – ref. The Canadian Arctic shows how understanding the effects of climate change requires long-term vision – https://theconversation.com/the-canadian-arctic-shows-how-understanding-the-effects-of-climate-change-requires-long-term-vision-238496

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Security: Yellowknife — Hay River RCMP recover stolen Yellowknife vehicle

    Source: Royal Canadian Mounted Police

    On the evening of October 7th, 2024, Yellowknife RCMP received a report that a vehicle had been stolen from a driveway in Yellowknife. Fortunately, the owner of the vehicle was able to use tracking technology to discover that the vehicle had subsequently left the city.

    With assistance from the owner, officers from the Hay River detachment were able to locate the vehicle in the hamlet of Enterprise, where it then fled from police. A short time later, the vehicle was located abandoned elsewhere in the community. Officers recovered a replica firearm from inside the vehicle. Two suspects were subsequently located and arrested in the area. They have since been released conditionally to appear in court at a later date.

    The investigation remains ongoing.

    Anyone with information on this matter is asked to contact the Yellowknife RCMP at 669-1111 or Crime Stoppers at http://www.p3tips.com. In the event of an emergency call, 911.

    MIL Security OSI –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Representatives Auchincloss, Doggett Lead Bipartisan Letter Calling on Biden Administration to Strengthen Russian Oil Sanctions and Question Exception Approval

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Representative Jake Auchincloss (Massachusetts, 4)

    October 21, 2024

    Washington, D.C.— U.S. Representatives Jake Auchincloss (D-MA-04) and Lloyd Doggett (D-TX-37) led a bipartisan effort calling on the Biden Administration to pursue more vigorous Russian oil sanctions and questioning an exception granted to a U.S.-based company, Schlumberger (SLB), operating in Russia. Since Vladimir Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022, SLB has exported nearly $18 billion of equipment to Russia. The bipartisan group of lawmakers is questioning U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken as to why the Biden Administration has permitted SLB to aid Russia’s oil exports and fund Putin’s war economy.

    In the letter the members stated, “It is alarming that SLB, an American company, is still free to help Russia produce and export its oil to fund the war chest of an authoritarian regime. Its investment in the Russian energy sector is so harmful that Ukraine’s National Agency on Corruption Prevention justifiably added SLB to an “international sponsor of war” blacklist. We and our G7 allies can hold SLB accountable for its complicity in Russian war crimes while still preserving stability in the global oil market. We look forward to your prompt answers to our specific questions, as well as the requested documents. We strongly urge further action to effectively restrict Putin’s profits and aid in Ukraine’s defense.”

    “While Ukrainians fight and die on the front lines of freedom, a U.S. oil company is supporting the enemy,” said Rep. Auchincloss. “Oil is the lifeblood of the Russian war economy, which is why the West must stand united in tightening and enforcing oil sanctions. That begins by holding SLB and its collaborators accountable for evading allied sanctions, profiteering from pain, and fueling Putin’s ability to wage war.” 

    “My name is on the first sanctions legislation to become law shortly after the Russian invasion,” said Rep. Doggett. “Implementation of that and similar legislation by our allies has not prevented Putin from earning billions from oil exports. And unfortunately, North Korea and Iran are not the only places providing him help. By permitting his exports and permitting continued American company investments in Russia, Americans, and our European allies, are essentially funding both sides of this war. While well aware of concerns about the price of gasoline at the pump, we must stop oiling the Putin war machine to win this war, secure a just peace, and reparations.”

    Additional signers include Representatives Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL-20), Marcy Kaptur (D-OH-9), Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ-05), Barbara Lee (D-CA-12), Wiley Nickel (D-NC-13), Jared Huffman (D-CA-02), Dan Goldman (D-NY-10), Danny K. Davis (D-IL-07), Jim Costa (D-CA-21), Sean Casten (D-IL-06), Steve Cohen (D-TN-09), Adam B. Schiff (D-CA-30), Susan Wild (D-PA-07), Joe Wilson (R-SC-02), Henry C. “Hank” Johnson, Jr. (D-GA-04), Thomas R. Suozzi (D-NY-03), Brad Sherman (D-CA-32), Zoe Lofgren (D-CA-18), Nikema Williams (D-GA-05),Gerald E. Connolly (D-VA-11), Mark Pocan (D-WI-02),  Madeleine Dean (D-PA-04), Jamie Raskin (D-MD-08), Earl Blumenauer (D-OR-03), Seth Magaziner (D-RI-02), Chris Deluzio (D-PA-17), Patrick Ryan (D-NY-18), Christopher H. Smith (R-NJ-04), Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-NJ-12), Salud Carbajal (D-CA-24), Raúl M. Grijalva (D-AZ-07), Don Bacon (R-NE-02), Juan Vargas (D-CA-52), Jerrold Nadler (D-NY-12), Ann McLane Kuster (D-NH-02), Emanuel Cleaver II (D-MO-05), Frank Pallone Jr. (D-NJ-06), Paul D. Tonko (D-NY-20), Adriano Espaillat (D-NY-13), Ted W. Lieu (D-CA-36), John B. Larson (D-CT-01), Mike Quigley (D-IL-05), Jill Tokuda (D-HI-01), Kweisi Mfume (D-MD-07), David J. Trone (D-MD-06), Seth Moulton (D-MA-06), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA-01), Stephen F. Lynch (D-MA-08), Bennie G. Thompson (D-MS-02) and Ro Khanna (D-CA-17).

    The letter in full can be found here.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Transcript of Global Financial Stability Report October 2024 Press Briefing

    Source: International Monetary Fund

    October 22, 2024

    Speakers:

     

    Tobias Adrian, Financial Counselor and Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF

    Caio Ferreira, Deputy Division Chief, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF

    Jason Wu, Assistant Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF

     

    Moderator: Alexander Müller, Communications Analyst, IMF

     

    Mr. MÜLLER: OK. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, depending on where you are joining us from. Welcome to this press briefing on our latest Global Financial Stability Report, titled “Steadying the Course: Uncertainty, Artificial Intelligence, and Financial Stability.”

     

    I am Alex Müller with the Communications Department here at the IMF. I am joined today by Tobias Adrian, the IMF’s Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department; to Tobias’s left, Jason Wu, assistant director at the Monetary and Capital Markets Department; and to his left, Caio Ferreira, deputy chief of the Global Markets Analysis Division.

     

    Our latest GFSR is out as of right now, so you can download the full text, our executive summary, and the latest blog on our website at IMF.org/GFSR.

     

    This press briefing is on the record. And we’ll start things off with some opening remarks just to set the stage before opening the floor to your questions. As a reminder we do have simultaneous interpretation into Arabic, French, and Spanish, both in the room and online.

     

    With that, I think we can get started.

     

    Tobias, when we released our last GFSR in April, optimism in financial markets was fueling asset valuations, credit spreads had compressed, and valuations in riskier asset markets had ratcheted up. At the time, you warned of some short‑term risks, like persistent inflation, as well as the tension between these narrowing credit spreads and the deteriorating underlying credit quality in some regions; but you also warned of some more medium‑term risks, like heightened vulnerabilities amidst elevated debt levels globally. So where are we now since then, six months later?

     

    Mr. ADRIAN: Thanks so much. And let me welcome all of to you this launch of the Global Financial Stability Report.

     

    So the themes that you highlight, Alex, have broadly continued.

     

    Let me start with inflation. So global inflation has progressed toward target in most countries. So most central banks continue with a tight stance of policy but have started to cut rates. Now, with inflation heading towards target in many countries, the focus of the central banks has shifted from being primarily focused on inflation toward also considering real activity.

     

    So, concerning real activity, we have seen upward surprises relative to expectations. In financial markets, that has been particularly visible in earnings surprises that have been on the positive side. So as a result, the likelihood of a global recession has continued to recede. So the baseline forecast is one of a soft landing globally. And that is the optimism that we had flagged already in April. That has been reinforced in many ways. And that is fueling optimism in financial markets. So financial conditions globally continue to be accommodative. Credit spreads continue to be tight. Implied volatility, particularly in risky asset markets, such as equity markets, continues to be fairly low.

     

    Now, you know, our main theme in Chapter 1, which was released today, is a tension between this financial market assessment of volatility‑‑i.e. the implied volatility in the equity market is perhaps the best indicator here‑‑which is at fairly low levels by historical standards, relative to measures of global geopolitical uncertainty.

     

    So in the report, we’re showing two measures that are computed not at the Fund but by other institutions. One on geopolitical uncertainty. The other one on economic uncertainty. And those continue to be relatively elevated. So there’s a kind of wedge in between the financial market‑implied volatility and the assessment of political or economic uncertainty. So this tension worries us, as it gives rise to the potential for a sharp readjustment of financial conditions. So we saw a little bit of that in August in a sell‑off that was very brief. So it’s a blip, in retrospect; but it does raise the concern, whether there are some vulnerabilities in the financial system that could be triggered if adverse shocks hit.

     

    Mr. MÜLLER: Thank you, Tobias. That sets the stage nicely for us, I think.

     

    We will turn to your questions now. We do have runners in the room with mics, so please do raise your hand. You can raise your hand both online or in the room, and we’ll come to you. Please do remember to state your name and affiliation. And keep it as brief as possible so we can get to as many questions as possible.

     

    Let’s start over here with the first question.

     

    QUESTION: Thank you so much. I am not asking you to comment on the presidential election in the U.S. But we have a presidential election here in 14 days, and President Trump or Vice President Harris may win the election. And that election will have ramifications not just in the U.S. but around the world.

     

    How does the IMF assess the outlook for the U.S. economy in the lead‑up to the presidential election? And what implications could a potential economic shift have for emerging markets in Africa, particularly regarding investment flows and debt sustainability? Thank you.

     

    Mr. ADRIAN: Thank you so much.

     

    Mr. MÜLLER: Do you want to group some questions? Do we have similar questions on the election or the U.S.? Can we take the question over there, please?

     

    QUESTION: How do you explain the recent backup in U.S. yields? And are you concerned about financial stability in the United States, given the rising projections of federal debt, irrespective of the outcome of the election? Thank you.

     

    Mr. MÜLLER: I think we can start with that for now.

     

    Mr. ADRIAN: OK. Sounds good. Yes.

     

    You know, we don’t comment on specific election outcomes. Of course, this year is an unusual year, in that over half of the population globally either has elected already this year or will elect this year new governments. And so that is certainly part of the reason why this policy uncertainty globally is high. There’s some uncertainty as to, you know, what the policy path for economic policies and broader policies is going to be going forward.

     

    When we look at volatility, as I said, that uncertainty in equity markets is relatively contained. But in interest rates, volatility is somewhat more elevated than it was, say, in the decade after the global financial crisis. So we are back to levels that are more similar to pre‑financial crisis. So interest rate volatility is relatively high. And that answers to some degree the second question.

     

    We have seen volatile longer‑term yields throughout the year, but we don’t think that that volatility is excessive, relative to the fact that monetary policy has become more data dependent. You know, after the global financial crisis, there was this challenge of the zero lower bound for monetary policy; so forward guidance was a very important tool. And that had even been phase in prior to the financial crisis with, you know, forward guidance being a compressor of volatility for interest rates. And that is less the case today. So interest rate volatility has increased.

     

    When we look at the longer‑term yields, we do certainly see that term premia have decompressed to some extent. So after the global financial crisis, we had seen negative term premia at a 10‑year level in the U.S. and many other countries, and some of that has decompressed. And that is, as would be expected, as the interest rate wall is coming up, asset purchases are normalizing, and quantitative tightening is being phased in.

     

    Now turning to Africa. Of course, you know, financial markets are global. So the base level of interest rates is moving across the world in a common fashion. So you can think about sort of like the base level of interest rates and then the spreads in countries, relative to that. So what we see in sub‑Saharan Africa is that countries with market access‑‑so those are the frontier economies‑‑they have seen spreads being compressed, so financial conditions have eased. And you know, relative to, say, 12 months ago, interest rates have certainly declined as a base. And many frontier markets have reissued, sort of accessed international capital markets. So, of course, there are countries that do face debt challenges, that do face liquidity challenges; and we’re actively engaged with the membership to address those.

     

    Mr. WU: Just to quickly add to what Tobias said about Africa.

     

    As he pointed out, the backdrop heading into this year was one of improvement, both in terms of growth, as well as financing conditions and spreads. Inflation is still high in the region, but it is coming down and stabilizing. Debt is an issue, but we have seen several cases this year being resolved. So that is good news.

     

    I think to your broader point, you know, we don’t comment on election outcomes; but we do know that financial markets tend to see, you know, more uncertainty around those outcomes. And this may affect financing conditions around the world, including in Africa. Uncertainty can also bring, you know, some slowdown in investments in the near term or the medium term. And so those are all possible outcomes. I think the key thing is for the macroeconomic framework to remain stable to address domestic situations and for countries that may be facing debt issues to engage with their creditors early, including through the Common Framework and other international setups.

     

    Mr. MÜLLER: Thank you. Can we take other questions? I think we have a question here in the middle, at the center.

     

    QUESTION: I was hoping you could talk about quantitative tightening. The Fed is still doing it. What are the risks now going forward? When do you think they might stop it? Thanks.

     

    Mr. ADRIAN: Thanks so much.

     

    As I mentioned earlier, you know, during the global financial crisis and then in the decade after the global financial crisis and then again with the COVID crisis, central banks‑‑advanced economy central banks around the world engaged in a quantitative easing. So these are asset purchases, called large‑scale asset purchases, in the U.S. that led to an increase in the balance sheet size of the central banks. So in the U.S. case, it grew roughly by a factor of 10. And the Fed has started to move towards a normalization of the balance sheet size. So that is generally referred to as quantitative tightening. And that has proceeded in a very orderly fashion. So when we look at market functioning, we see orderly markets in money markets. We see ample liquidity in core funding markets, including Treasury markets. And that is generally the case in other advanced economies that are doing quantitative tightening, as well.

     

    Of course, there is the question of how far the balance sheet normalization is going to go. And policymakers in the U.S. and other advanced economies have indicated how far this normalization would be going. So what is notable here is that the operational framework of the Federal Reserve changed to a floor system, so having a sufficient amount of reserves in the system to operate that floor system is key. So, you know, looking at funding conditions in money markets and market functioning is absolutely key. Back in 2019, there were some dislocations, and that is certainly something that policymakers are watching out for. But I would say that this balance sheet normalization has proceeded in a satisfactory and very orderly manner.

     

    Mr. FERREIRA: Tobias, just a quick complement.

     

    I think that we have seen a quantitative tightening from all of the major central banks. And I think that from the peak in 2022, of about 28 trillion in terms of assets in their balance sheets, it has come down by about one‑quarter already and, as Tobias was saying, in a very orderly fashion.

     

    The main risk that I think is important to monitor going forward is the potential drain on reserves, as Tobias was saying, to avoid the kind of episodes that we have seen in 2019. But there is also a potential risk for a bounce of increasing volatility, in the sense that we are moving from central banks being one of the main buyers of Treasuries to more price‑sensitive buyers. And this might cause volatility coming from data releases.

     

    Mr. MÜLLER: OK. Let’s take it back as well. We have a question in the front here, in the center, that we can take.

     

    QUESTION: Thank you for taking my question. I want to ask about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy and its impact, spillover impact. I think recently, it started to cut rates, and it’s going to cut rates further going forward. And it seems to be allowing other governments, other policymakers to have more room, including the People’s Bank of China. I want to ask Tobias whether he could comment on the latest action by China’s central bank and what’s the IMF’s suggestion going forward. Thank you.

     

    Mr. ADRIAN: Yeah. Absolutely.

     

    What we have seen in China is an easing of monetary policy. So the question is referring to the most recent action, which was a cut in interest rates. And, of course, we have seen PBoC engaging in asset purchases, which has supported the easing of financial conditions. So when we look at financial conditions‑‑so, you know, the cost of funding for households and corporations in China, those financial conditions have eased quite markedly. Equity markets have rallied. Longer‑term bond yields have declined. And we generally welcome that easing. We think that is the appropriate policy for monetary policy.

     

    There have been also some announcements on the fiscal side that are indicating support ‑‑ to the real estate sector, in particular. And, of course, authorities in China had already engaged for some time in terms of addressing the exposure of the banking system to the real estate sector. The real estate sector has cooled off in China, and that has created some risks in the banking sector. So authorities are working actively at addressing those by merging banks and using asset management corporations (AMCs) in an active manner. And we welcome that, as well.

     

    You know, we are watching closely how financial stability policies are going to evolve going forward, relative to the real sector but also the broader economy, and how fiscal policy is evolving going forward.

     

     

    Mr. FERREIRA: Maybe on this last point, Tobias, on financial stability.

     

    Of course, there’s some slowdown in economic activity, and the problems that we are seeing in the property sector are exerting some pressure on the financial system. The good news I think is that particularly the large banks seem to have strong capital buffers and liquidity buffers. The authorities also have the capacity to make target interventions, and this somewhat limits the risks of spillovers.

     

    There are some vulnerabilities that need to be monitored. Right? So one, of course, is this potential pressure on asset deterioration coming from this slowdown in the property market. So far, banks have been quite good in terms of being able to deal with this potential deterioration, particularly using asset management companies to dispose of some of the nonperforming assets. The capacity of these asset management companies to keep absorbing these assets needs to be monitored going forward. It’s also important to monitor the stability of the smaller banks that are not as strong as the larger banks.

     

    And the last point I think that’s important to mention is that the financial sector holds a lot of exposure to local government financing vehicles. And if there is‑‑and there are some pressures on these vehicles, and a potential restructuring of these debts might cause some losses to the banking sector, as well.

     

    Mr. MÜLLER: Thank you, Caio. Do we have any other questions on China before we move to anything else?

     

    So we can turn over to the side.

     

    QUESTION: Thank you. My question will be for Tobias and Jason.

     

    Of course, reading your report, you talked about financial fragilities, so I would like to know what financial fragilities you see in developing economies and what policymakers should do to keep financial markets resilient and stable in the face of high interest rates as a result of high inflation in developing economies like Nigeria, too.

     

    The question I have for Jason would be around, what does vigilance really mean for policymakers? Because in your report, you said that the policymakers need to be vigilant. Because vigilance in European economies or advanced economies is also different vigilance for developing economies. Thank you.

     

    Mr. ADRIAN: Thank you so much. Those are very pertinent questions. And thanks so much for taking a close look at the report.

     

    For developing economies broadly, I would say that there are three priorities. In terms of financial stability, we are engaging with many countries in terms of building capacity on regulatory issues, so making sure that banks are well capitalized, that monetary policy frameworks are sound. And Nigeria is a good example, where the central bank has been moving toward an inflation‑targeting regime, has liberalized the exchange rate. And we welcome that direction.

     

    Secondly‑‑and I think you alluded to that‑‑is, of course, the overall indebtedness. That is a challenge for some countries. As I mentioned earlier, frontier markets are developing economies with market access. And we have seen many frontier markets issue this year. The issuance levels are fairly high. And we think market access is there, though, of course, financing conditions have improved but are still more expensive than they were, say, in 2021, before the run‑up in inflation.

     

    So with inflation coming down and interest rates expected to further normalize, we would also expect that frontier market funding conditions will improve. And as I said, interest rate spreads are fairly tight.

     

    Now, of course, there are some countries a that do not have market access, and many of those countries are in programs with the IMF. And we are working actively with authorities on the debt issue. We do feel we have made good progress within the Common Framework, but there is certainly more to be done.

     

    Now, of course, it remains key to also work on structural issues to enhance the growth outlook. And that is really something that the regional economic briefings are going to address in detail.

     

    Mr. WU: Maybe just a quick word, to add to what Tobias said about Nigeria, in particular. We recognize that many citizens do face difficulty. The flood was quite devastating. Inflation is still very high, at some 30 percent. So in that regard, the central bank’s rate hikes so far this year have been appropriate.

     

    You asked a question about vigilance. I think importantly, macroeconomic conditions within the country should stabilize. Right? And that includes inflation that will provide room to guard against external shocks, which is less controllable, right, for the economy of Nigeria. So when appropriate, the various foreign exchange measures that were taken by authorities earlier this year are also appropriate in improving vigilance, as are the banking sector‑related measures that Tobias has mentioned.

     

    Mr. MÜLLER: All right. Do we have any more questions on that side of the room before we turn it back over here?

     

    QUESTION: Thank you very much.

    So Ghana has just completed its debt restructuring. It’s good news for Ghanians. However, it appears the government is looking at the capital market. What advice do you have for the government at this point? And also because we have an election around the corner.

     

    Mr. ADRIAN: Yeah. As I noted earlier, we don’t really comment on elections in the countries of our membership. You know, these are democratic processes. And the people in each country are‑‑it’s their liberty to vote for the government, so we don’t comment on that.

     

    We are, of course, engaged very closely with Ghana. Ghana is in a program. Ghana did restructure its debt. And we are confident that the outlook is going to improve going forward. The regional economic press briefing on Africa is going to go further into detail on those issues.

     

    Mr. MÜLLER: Thank you, Tobias.

     

    As a reminder these regional press briefings will be on Thursday and Friday. So they’re all going to be here, so you will have the opportunity to ask those specific questions then.

     

    Can we turn it over here to the middle for a question, please? Right in the center. Thank you.

     

    QUESTION: Thank you.

     

    A follow‑up question related to the yields going up for the Treasury. In simple words, do you see them going up as a source of a potential sell‑off in the financial markets?

     

    And a separate question, if possible. For the same token, yields are going up because of the fiscal trajectory in the U.S. that is worrisome for some, at least, although the candidates are not talking about it. For the same token, considering that the Italian debt is only going up, according to the latest estimates from the IMF, does that represent a source of financial instability for the euro zone?

     

    Mr. ADRIAN: Yeah. Thanks so much for this question.

     

    We have, indeed, done work on the interconnection or the nexus between fiscal‑‑or, you know, sovereign debt and financial market debt. So in the euro area, of course, we are watching closely the sovereign‑bank nexus, so the exposure of banks to the sovereign. And you know, in general, we have seen an amelioration there. So, you know, debt‑to‑GDP has been increasing. And that’s very broadly the case around the world. It’s really in the pandemic that we see a sharp upward move in debt‑to‑GDP in both advanced economies and emerging and developing economies. And you know, the fiscal outlook in many countries does imply that debt-to-GDP may continue to rise. So that could‑‑you know, that is certainly a backdrop for the financial system.

     

    Now having said that, governments in advanced economies and major emerging markets have ample room to adjust the fiscal situation going forward through spending measures, through revenue measures. So it is not an immediate financial stability concern in those advanced economies or major emerging markets.

     

    You know, in terms of the pricing of sovereign debt‑‑so, you know, Treasury yields and other benchmark yields around the world‑‑as I said earlier, volatility in those longer‑term yields has increased relative to the decade of the post‑crisis environment, where central banks were constrained at the zero lower bound or the effective lower bound, so had very low interest rates; so they deployed forward guidance and these quantitative asset purchases. So that really compressed longer‑term yields. And that has normalized to some degree, but we don’t think that it is an unusual move. So we are quite comfortable with the kind of levels that we are seeing.

     

    Mr. MÜLLER: Thank you. Let’s bring it back over here. I think we have a few questions. Can we take the one in the middle right at the center? Thank you.

     

    QUESTION: A question for Tobias, if I may.

     

    There has been quite a lot of talk about fragmentation and geopolitical risk. Do you think that, as others have said, the momentum for financial regulation and for completing the job on a lot of areas of that is fading? Is there a risk of complacency there? Thank you.

     

    Mr. ADRIAN: Yeah. So let me note that we are working around the membership on the regulation of banks but also non‑banks, including security markets, insurance companies, pension funds, and other non‑bank financial institutions.

     

    Concerning banking regulation, of course, there was a major initiative after the global financial crisis to improve capital and liquidity in the banks and to improve the supervision of the banks, primarily of internationally active banks. So the members of the Basel Committee‑‑this is, you know, a group of countries that roughly maps into the G‑20‑‑have committed to phasing in Basel III as a standard for capital and liquidity requirements in those banks. And our understanding is that the membership is still committed to that phase‑in.

     

    I would note that it has taken longer than was initially anticipated, but we are very confident for now that, you know, the major advanced economies and major emerging markets that have signed onto this Basel III framework are going to phase that in.

     

    In the broader membership of the IMF, there’s also a substantial improvement in the regulation of banks. And I would note that there has also been quite a bit of progress in terms of regulations of non‑banks, including insurance companies but also security markets, though we do think that more needs to be done going forward.

     

    Mr. FERREIRA: We have seen important progress in the post‑crisis. Our baseline is still that all the internationally agreed standards will be implemented. Although, as Tobias was saying, there are some major jurisdictions that are facing some challenges implementing that.

     

    We see this with some concern because when you see a major jurisdiction not implementing any standard or implementing it with substantial deviations from what has been agreed, it kind of jeopardizes the international standard‑setting process. That seems to be working fine, but we still are concerned with the delays in the implementation of these regulations that are important for the banks but also to maintain trust in the international standard setting process.

     

    Mr. MÜLLER: Thank you. We are coming close on time. So let’s take two or three last questions from this side. Then I think we still have one more question online. Can we do the three over here in the front, on the right?

     

    QUESTION: [Through interpreter]

     

    Good day. Jesus Antonio Vargas. Chucho Lo Sabe Newsletter.

     

    This is the ninth time I come to the Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank. Six times in Washington. I come from Medellín, Colombia. I have also been in Lima, in Bali, last year in Marrakech. And it is a pleasure to see Tobias Adrian here. He has been year in, year out heading the endeavors. Congratulations.

     

    First, a surprise positively since there’s measures to come from the effort to the citizens. In Bogota, they’ve been talking about building a Metro system for 60 years, and they’re attempting it yet again now.

     

    Now, leaving that aside, we have spoken about, it is unlikely there will be a global recession, which is a relief.

     

    I was talking about the risk of a recession. You were talking about a positive surprise in terms of the gains. What do you mean exactly by that? Thank you.

     

    Mr. MÜLLER: If we could take two more questions over here.

     

    QUESTION:

     

    You just mentioned there is a disconnect between market volatility and also market economic uncertainties. Could you please just elaborate a little bit more on these risks. And also, more importantly, how will it affect global financial stability if it persists? Thank you.

     

    Mr. MÜLLER: One last question in the back there.

     

    QUESTION:

     

    I’ve got a question on liquidity mismatch, in the world of DC pensions. The report mentions the U.K.’s desire to shift toward unlisted assets as investments. And our current Chancellor has also expressed an interest in this. What are the risks in this? Should the shift toward these assets be limited? And how should we guard against them?

     

    Mr. ADRIAN: Yeah. Let me perhaps start with the question on macro uncertainty, which was the second question.

     

    So yeah, you know, what we’re seeing is that there is leverage and there are maturity mismatches in the financial sector in many different parts. You know, some of those are contained through prudential regulations, but not all institutions are subject to prudential regulations. So when there’s a sudden burst of uncertainty, some institutions may be forced to unwind their positions. So this includes, say, leveraged trades in fixed‑income markets or in equity markets.

     

    We saw some of that in August, when there was a sharp sell‑off in global equity markets but also in some fixed‑income markets, such as the carry trade across countries. And you know, volatility increased very quickly, leading to this forced deleveraging, and that can amplify downward moves in asset markets.

     

    In August, this episode was very short‑lived. So the sell‑off was followed by a buying of longer‑term investors, such as insurance companies and pension funds. But if such a sell‑off persists for more than‑‑or is more sharp, that could lead to financial stability problems or financial sector distress.

     

    Concerning the U.K. situation and the liquidity mismatches, let me just point out that the Bank of England and the FCA are very focused on those issues. And they do have, you know, broad authorities to regulate those mismatches. And I think they’re actively looking at how to model stress and how to make sure that these investments are sort of balancing risks and returns in an appropriate manner. I think Andrew Bailey made some remarks just this morning in that regard, and we’re fully aligned with his views there.

     

    Mr. MÜLLER: I’ll take one last question we have from WebEx, online on the Mexican central bank lowering interest rates. For future adjustments and to maintain financial stability, what should it take into account more, the movements of the Federal Reserve, internal inflation, or the depreciation of the currency?

     

    Mr. ADRIAN: OK. I don’t want to go too specifically into Mexico. Again, there is the Regional Economic Outlook that will speak more closely to specific country issues. So, you know, in general, in the major emerging markets, such as Mexico, that have open capital markets and have inflation targeting regimes, you know, inflation targeting and monetary policy credibility has proven to be very powerful in terms of generating macroeconomic stability, relative to both domestic and external shocks. And you know, in those frameworks, central banks look at both internal and external conditions and are targeting the medium‑term convergence of inflation back to target rates. That has proven very successful. And I would argue that in the major emerging markets, we really see a great deal of improvement in those monetary policy frameworks. So let me stop here.

     

    Mr. WU: Just to quickly complement.

     

    Hence, this is why we have seen major emerging markets come through this rate hike cycle with reasonable resilience across the board. This inflation‑targeting framework has obviously done work, to an extent. Having said that, we are now on the opposite side of the cycle, where interest rates are being cut. That, in theory, should be conducive to emerging markets. Financial conditions could ease. We just want to point out that, as we said in the report, expectations could change. Volatility could be introduced and suddenly surge. So this may have spillovers to emerging market economies, you know, sentiment, financial market sentiment, as well. So policymakers need to remain vigilant on monetary policy and on other aspects of financial sector policies in order to guard against those risks.

     

    Mr. MÜLLER: All right. Great. Thank you.

     

    Unfortunately, that does bring us to a close because we do have to respect the next press briefing in this room.

     

    If you do have any questions that we weren’t able to address, please do send them over to me or someone from our team. We’ll make sure to get back to you as soon as we can.

     

    Meanwhile, the events here at the IMF do continue. We still have a host of press conferences this week, from our Fiscal Monitor tomorrow at 9 a.m. Eastern Time to the Managing Director’s Global Policy Agenda on Thursday to our five regional briefings that we talked about, on Thursday and Friday, not to mention the seminars. We have the Managing Director joining the debate on the global economy. That is on Thursday afternoon, which is always a hit that you won’t want to miss. On Friday, the First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath will participate in a panel discussion on monetary policy in a shock‑prone world on Friday afternoon. And there’s a whole lot more, so do check the full schedule online at IMFConnect or at meetings.imf.org.

     

    With that, Tobias, Jason, Caio, thank you for your insights. And thank you all for joining us for this event. We look forward to seeing you at the next one. Thank you.

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    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Transcript of G24 October 22 Press Briefing

    Source: International Monetary Fund

    October 22, 2024

    Speakers
    Chair: Ralph Recto, Secretary of Finance, Philippines

    First Vice‑Chair: Candelaria Alvarez Moroni, Argentina, representing Ministry of Economy Luis Caputo
    Second Vice‑Chair: Olawale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Nigeria
    Iyabo Masha, G‑24 Secretariat

    Mr. Recto (Philippines): Thank you, all. We had a productive exchange of views and experiences on some of the most pressing issues, confronting the global economy today. We are hard‑pressed on multiple fronts. The suffering costs by conflicts and humanitarian crisis around the world is vast and the affected region’s recovery, the construction, and long‑term development, cannot wait. They demand immediate forceful multilateral action.    

    While the global economy shows signs of stabilization, the outlook for many vulnerable nations, particularly in the global south, remains bleak. These weak economic prospects continue to haunt those already struggling to recover from the pandemic.      

    Inflation may be easing, but rising geopolitical tensions are keeping the threat of commodity price spikes and elevated interest rates alive. These risks impair capital flows, fiscal stability and the very survival of economies on the brink.          

    One thing is clear. Any slowdown in the global economy due to these new economic realities is bound to hit developing countries the hardest. While current circumstances have made it more difficult for us to achieve a sustainable and inclusive future by 2030, we believe that it remains possible with the right priorities and concerted international cooperation.         

    Thus, we continue to call for a more agile and strong will IMF and World Bank. We need heightened development cooperation, scale‑up support, and innovative solutions as we now begin the headwinds to foster peace, stability, and prosperity for all. And the key issue that underpins our discussions is the 80th Anniversary of the Bretton Woods System.         

    We acknowledge the significant evolution of the system over the decades. Yet, we must recognize that rapid transformations are occurring at an unprecedented base. We must therefore critically assess if the Bretton Woods System is adopting fast enough to the rapidly changing and increasingly volatile global environment.         

    To this end, the G‑24 has identified four key reforms that will enhance the system’s effectiveness and empower both the IMF and the World Bank Group to better serve their members.              

    First, the IMF must create a new mechanism to support countries with sound fundamentals during liquidity crisis.

    Second, the immediate submission of eradicating poverty on a livable planet, the World Bank needs more ambitious goals for its concessional and non‑concessional windows, commensurate with the challenges of achieving inclusive and sustainable development by 2030.    

    Third, the sovereign debt resolution framework must be reformed to deliver comprehensive, predictable, swift, and impactful debt relief, addressing the urgent needs of vulnerable economies.               

    Fourth, we must accelerate governance and institutional reforms of the Bretton Woods Institutions, to increase the voice and representation of developing nations. Without improvements and both actions, decades of individual and global efforts to eradicate poverty and inequality, combat climate change, and invest in growth‑enhancing projects will be put to a halt, if not reversed. Thus, we are counting on our recently concluded meeting to set an unprecedented multilateral cooperation and action. All of these points are comprehensively discussed in the communiqué and press release we have prepared for your perusal. With that, we are now ready to take your questions. Thank you.         

    MODERATOR: Thank you, Mr. Chair. So now moving on to the Q&A section, I would like to remind you that when you raise your hand, please identify yourself, your outlet, and please identify the Chair members that you would like to address the question to. Now moving on to the gentleman in the third row, please.       

    QUESTIONER: Thank you so much. I have a question actually for the three of you. Mr. Recto, you talked about the need for liquidity and buffers. The Philippines serves as a really good example. You are one of the fastest growing economies in the developing Asia region. Business process outsourcing, revenues have passed $35 billion. I wanted to find out, what is the Philippines doing so well? Is it a well‑educated workforce or is it constant electricity; what is the secret; and is AI going to disrupt that going forward?        

    For Candelaria Alvarez, reforms have been taking in Argentina. Javier Milei recently, I think it was in the last month, vetoed a bill that was going to increase financing for public universities, and students have been protesting. How patient do you expect the residents of Argentina to be with the reforms that are taking place?               

    And for Mr. Olawale Edun, the CBN Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, at the last monetary policy meeting in Nigeria mentioned that the FAAC allocations, the Federation Account Allocation Committee, are causing—he noted they are causing the naira to depreciate when those disbursements are made. What do you think need to be done to address that?

    Then, two, you recently, I think it was a month or two, you talked about the need for single‑digit interest rates in Nigeria. Do you think that is ever going to happen with inflation being in double digits and a hawkish monetary policy path in Nigeria? Thank you.              

    MODERATOR: Thank you. Let me remind you that I hope that your question will be under the purview of G‑24 discussions but let ask the Chair to respond to the questions.               

    Mr. Recto (Philippines): Thank you very much for your question. Thank you for noticing the Philippines. The Philippines at the second quarter grew by roughly 6.3 percent. For the first 2 years of this administration, we have grown about 6 percent. We are following our macro fiscal framework of reducing the deficit over time. We expect the good debt‑to‑GDP to be way below 60 percent by 2028. Today are roughly at 60 percent.               

    On the expenditure side, we are spending roughly 5 to 6 percent on infrastructure, maybe a similar amount also for human resource development, particularly in health and education.               

    You are correct that the BPO industry is growing by about—well, we collect roughly 35 billion in revenues a year. We also have a robust remittance of roughly the same amount, about $35 billion a year as well. That helps our consumption. 70 percent of the economy is household consumption. And public investments have also generated most of that growth as well.                 

    AI is a challenge, but in the Philippines the BPO industry is already adapting to AI. So thank you for your question. Thank you.               

    MODERATOR: Mr. Edun, would you like to address the question?              

    Mr. Edun (Nigeria): Thank you very much. Let me answer it within the context of the discussions of the G‑24. Fundamentally, of course, foreign exchange and liquidity generally is very difficult. There are countries that are—they are reforming their economies domestically. They key into the rules‑based world trading system. And they do have debt sustainability in terms of debt‑to‑GDP. However, they have liquidity constraints, particularly foreign exchange with relation to debt servicing of the foreign debt but also their domestic debt. And I think to bring that—that is the context within which the questions of how to help. In fact, the IMF is specifically focusing on how to help is sort of a bridge financing that takes a question that does have its fundamentals right, but it gives it enough time for that adjustment and probably helps it with heightened debt servicing, which is just for a period.

    Clearly with regard to Nigeria, the key about the foreign exchange market really is supply. And, of course, as you know we have the—we are an oil‑producing country. We just need to get our oil production up, and that will deal with that issue of foreign exchange supply, and pressure on foreign exchange every time there are large flows.                  

    In terms of single‑digit inflation, of course, the western world, the rich countries, they have effectively defeated inflation. That is why the interest rates can come down. The Governor of the Central Bank in Nigeria, in the context of high inflation, is continuing with monetary tightening. That is the orthodoxy of the day. And it is one which is following. Thank you.               

    MODERATOR: Ms. Moroni on Argentina.          

    Ms. Moroni (Argentina): Thank you. Going back to the question on Argentina, just as an important framework, G‑24 has been working on the need for emerging market and developing economies to try to put their economies in the right place. The Minister mentioned the need for the international financial organizations to give liquidity or to provide access to liquidity for countries like Argentina and others to be able to get back on our feet. For the government of Argentina, it is really relevant. We do think there is a need for a fiscal anchor on that sense. What happened with the education law had to do with the idea to keep the budget where it has to be, and it has not to do with kind of cutting education. It has to do with evaluating costs and expenditure in the right way. I think that is it.          

    MODERATOR: Thank you so much. Going back to the floor. The gentleman in the fourth row, please.            

    QUESTION: Just turning to the U.S. election, obviously we have seen the U.S. follow suit on trade change to a more protectionist stance. We have seen more industrial policy. Regardless of who wins the election, how do you see the U.S. involvement with multilateral organizations represented here and the WTO; and what is the impact of maybe a lessen gauged, more transactional U.S. on the group of countries, the G‑24?           

    MODERATOR: Mr. Chairman, maybe the Secretariat would like to respond?               

    Mr. Edun (Nigeria): We are concerned that there will be a setback on multilateralism, particularly on trade as well. And we know the driver of global growth is more trade. So that is a concern. In the Philippines, we count on our relationship with the United States to do maybe more out‑shoring to the Philippines, and hopefully that will be done also with other members of the G‑24.            

    Ms. Masha (Secretariat): If I can add, if you look at the communiqué, the last paragraph there actually addresses this issue. It is not just about the U.S. it is also about different countries all over the world implementing protectionist policies. And we have seen the impact of that in sectors that continue to build more to growth and development in many countries. So where do we go from here? What we are calling on is for the WTO to become the center of trade discussions, trade negotiations, and for the World Bank and the IMF to rise up to a much more multilaterally‑engaged organization that will be able to at least influence the kind of policies that countries take one way or the other. Thank you.            

    MODERATOR: Thank you. We are going to go online. The question that was just received from Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka as a member of G‑24 is currently making attempts to emerge out of a crisis. What can you tell us about a G‑24 position to support countries like Sri Lanka and also for the island nations to secure financial facilities at reasonable conditions. Mr. Chair, maybe Iyabo?            

    Ms. Masha (Secretariat): Yes. So I would say that Sri Lanka has come a long way from where it was 2 years ago. The last IMF Article IV Consultation assessment does show that growth is picking up, that fiscal buffers are coming up, and also import duties are rising, so that indicates that the countries are making some recovery.           

    As for the position that the G‑24 takes on this issue, the way it affects Sri Lanka most is on the debt sustainability issue. So what we are calling for is that countries, especially middle‑income countries, should also have a framework, a forum where they can negotiate with their debtors. As it is now, the Common Framework only works for low‑income countries. Only low‑income countries are part of the Common Framework, but middle‑income countries can be part of another forum called the Sovereign Debt Resolution Roundtable, which is not really an association—an organization that delivers any form of debt relief. It just fosters common understanding. So that is what we are calling for. We want very timely, very comprehensive reduction in debt for countries, and also for both middle and low‑income countries to qualify. So that is where I see it working out. If things work out and the discussion in that area picks up quite fastly, then we can see the likes of Sri Lanka and maybe Lebanon and a few other countries benefiting from that. Thank you.          

    MODERATOR: Thank you. Back to the floor. Maybe I will take one question from the side and come back to you. I’ve seen your hand, sir, in the third row. Sorry, the fourth row. Yes.               

    QUESTION: Hi, there. Mr. Recto, you said that developing countries would be hit by the hardest by any slowdown. I am going to ask an uncomfortable question, but the U.S. election has two very different results, one of which will likely be much more inflationary and lead to more trade tensions. Could each of you tell me a little bit about how your economies are preparing or thinking about the possibility of a Trump victory and associated trade tensions and inflationary pressures that could be a headwind to growth?              

    MODERATOR: Yes, please.             

    Mr. Recto (Philippines): Well, in the Philippines, we do have a relationship with the U.S. We have a mutual defense treaty. We are hoping to leverage that relationship so that we do not get much affected. We understand that many U.S. companies are also interested to invest in the Philippines. We do have a partnership also, the U.S.-Japan-and the Philippines, with regards to our security arrangements. We expect more investments to take place also in the Philippines.             

    MODERATOR: Anything to add from Mr. Edun or Ms. Moroni?             

    Mr. Edun (Nigeria): Thank you. I think the issues that we are contending with in Africa, in many ways, we are bystanders to this all‑important election. Yes, we do have African Growth and Opportunity Act, which tries to open up the U.S. market to African‑manufactured products. I do not think that will be affected in any way by the results of this election. Generally, what we are finding is that at this particular time, the economies of trade generally, there is a reversal of globalization, of trade. There is a move to protectionism in these countries. There is on‑boarding of production. All these things tend to work against the developing world’s ability to benefit from expanding trade and thereby use that opportunity for investment, for growth, and for job creation and poverty reduction.            

    Overall, I think that we are not that affected specifically or that in general we continue to ask for an improved global financial architecture that provides us with more concessional funding, add skill, particularly for those countries that, as I said earlier, are undertaking the macroeconomic reforms that everybody agrees are sensible and will lead to better lives for their people. Thank you.             

    MODERATOR: Anything to add from the macro, broad perspective?             

    Ms. Moroni (Argentina): Very briefly. What was mentioned by both Ministers is the right sentimenting in the emerging markets. We do think, at least for Argentina, the U.S. is a strategic partner and whatever the elections go, we do think that we need to keep having that channel open. Trade is quite a relevant issue. Financial issues are quite relevant. Governance issues in institutions also will be something sensitive to work with the new administration. We do think it is going to be something quite interesting to see in the short‑term. Thank you.           

    MODERATOR: You, sir, in the second row right here.            

    Question: My question is meant for Mr. Wale. Like Mr. Recto said in his opening remarks, a lot of G‑24 countries are having challenges implementing structural reforms and adjustment programs. I would like you to speak specifically to the case of Nigeria. What are the key lessons to learn from the structural reforms being implemented in Nigeria today. And looking back, are there better ways these reforms would have been implemented to limit the level of disruptions? Also, you met with the IMF MD and the team yesterday. We would like to know some of the discussions on that meeting and how does that relate to debt sustainability for Nigeria. Thank you.           

    MODERATOR: Mr. Edun, would you like to respond?         

    Mr. Edun (Nigeria): Thank you very much. When we talk about—I will take the last one—debt sustainability, and also reforms generally, the G‑24 I think is better to talk within the framework, to talk beyond Nigeria and more about developing countries as a whole. The requirement really for support from the international community, from the development partners, from the multilateral development banks is that you undertake reforms that lead to sustainability at the macro level.             

    The key lesson that I think I would focus on is that in devising these programs and carrying out the reforms, what is particularly important — because the benefits over the longer term and the costs are frontloaded, it is important that the social safety nets that will help the poor and the vulnerable cope with the up‑front costs with a spike in their cost‑of‑living is adequately planned for and dealt with. So, it should not be an issue of it is an afterthought that you decide now that there need to be certain poverty alleviation initiatives. And linked to that, focus on helping the poor and the most vulnerable, [what can] cope with the cost is communication. I think one of the critical things in carrying out these economy reforms that are so fundamental and clearly they are necessary, otherwise they would not be implemented, is that communicating what is being done, what was to be expected, and also the timing as much as possible, the timing of the various activities, and then communicating what actually has been done so if it is a program to give direct benefits, direct transfers of funds to a group of people, then it should be published. There should be a dashboard that people can follow, thereby engendering and building public trust. I think those are the two important things that I would say you need to have for all of us at the G‑24 and developing countries in general. Thank you.         

    MODERATOR: Thank you, Minister. I have time for two more questions. Let me go back to the far end of the room right there. Thank you.

    QUESTION: Thank you. A question on climate change. Do you think the development banks, MDBs, are doing enough to tackle climate change? And especially our shareholders of MDBs, are they doing enough to tackle this issue? Thank you.            

    MODERATOR: Thank you. Mr. Recto, you would like to comment?        

    Mr. Recto (Philippines): The short comment is, it is never enough.     

    MODERATOR: Minister, do you want to chime in or, Ms. Moroni, or Iyabo on climate change.        

    Ms. Masha (Secretariat): Yes, I will say that the ambition is there. They really want to do a lot. The finance is just not commensurate with the level of ambition, so that is also one area where we have called on them to demonstrate the ambition. Thank you.     

    Mr. Edun (Nigeria): Sorry. If I may, since you asked me.     

    MODERATOR: Please.

    Mr. Edun (Nigeria): The thing I would say on climate change, for a poor country such as Nigeria and others that are actually endowed with fossil fuels in particular, must take a realistic approach to climate change because it is the resources that we have that we must use to industrialize, to modernize our economies while being members of the global fight against climate change. We are signatories to the Paris Accord. We have our target for net zero, and while sticking to those, we must take a realistic view that we need to use our fossil fuels to develop our economies. Thank you.        

    Ms. Moroni (Argentina): The recent issue we had been discussing on G‑24, G‑20, and other forums, the need for development banks to keep in mind their core objective. Then as you mentioned, there is a need to kind of—we do have an ambition, a climate agenda, but we do need to respect the emerging markets’ right to develop first. So, there is a need to—for financing for other development issues that are not directly linked to this, thank you.      

    MODERATOR: Last question to the lady up‑front.       

    QUESTION: Thank you. My question will be to Ms. Director and Mr. Olawale. Earlier on the World Economic Outlook, we were told that inflation is almost won, so I would like to know how the Group of Twenty‑Four is actually interpreting that, especially with the fundamentals in the developed world getting a little bit better; and what are the risks that are posed to the Group of 24. Also, to you, Mr. Recto, you rolled out four key reforms that G‑24 is asking from the World Bank and the IMF. Are you looking at timelines for these reforms? Then over to Nigeria’s Finance Minister and the Second Vice Chair. One of the reforms is heightened development support. That reform, what does it mean for African economies? For example, so I would really like you to take a look at that and perhaps what are the timelines that you are expecting? Is there a Nigerian agenda within these four key reforms?         

    MODERATOR: Thank you so much. Also, I would like to invite Iyabo to address on the reforms of the Bretton Woods institutions as well, but first, the Director or Mr. Edun, would you like to respond on inflation?         

    Mr. Recto (Philippines): On inflation, I think for next year, the global inflation rate will still be relatively high, lower than this year, but something like 5.8 percent, thereabouts. I still think that will be high, and because of that, the interest rate, while it is going down, it remains high. That is why we are also calling for the World Bank to reduce cost of borrowing. This will be very beneficial to the developing economies. On the time frame, maybe Iyabo can elaborate more.              

    Ms. Masha (Secretariat): Yes. Yes, the Bretton Woods initiative itself, the reform, they just started, so now they are in the process of consultations, going around countries, going around regions, so I will say that at a minimum, maybe by next Spring Meeting, they will have an update on where they are in the process and maybe some final decision by the Annual Meetings. In any case, these things have to go through the boards of both the IMF and the World Bank for ratification.        

    MODERATOR: Thank you. Mr. Edun.

    Mr. Recto (Philippines): I think I think around this time last year, we were still dealing with heightened levels of inflation, particularly in the developed countries. That means elevated rates of interest as they put as their number one priority, the fight against inflation and tight monetary policy by the central banks. That has changed. And there is now as we are seeing monetary easing or at least easing of rates of interest by central banks, but that is in the developed world.

    In the developing world, rates are still high and that fight against inflation means that the interest rates also will remain high. But as far as the developed world is concerned, lower interest rates translate to more affordability. Nobody wants to borrow. Nobody likes to borrow. But when it becomes necessary. It is something that must be managed as well as possible. So the first port of call is concessional financing; IDA financing, for instance, from the World Bank. And what the developing world continues to call for is larger sums that can really make a difference, not just to be able to help a country cope with its immediate payment needs, but to have funds to grow the economies. That is what the fight against inflation translates to for the developing countries. Victory therefore or success therefore in the developed world means that they should be able to make more resources available. I must note here that the IMF has reduced their charges. 36 percent reduction in the rates and the excess charges is significant, and it is in the right direction to help developing countries get the resources they need to develop and grow.

    MODERATOR: Thank you so much, Minister and

    Secretariat. Thank you so much for the questions. Unfortunately, we are out of time. Thank you so much again for joining this press conference. The G‑24 communique is being posted on IMF.org and the transcript of this press briefing will be made available later. Have a good rest of your day. Thank you.

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  • MIL-OSI Germany: How climate risk will complicate central bankers’ jobs | Guest contribution in the Financial Times

    Source: Deutsche Bundesbank in English

    It is clear that the effects of climate change have started to influence the monetary policy considerations of several central banks. Unfortunately, such factors will become even more relevant in the future.
    Severe weather events are intensifying, and so too are their economic impacts. Tropical storm Helene in south-eastern US is just the latest reminder of the damage that can be wrought. The annual damages on properties caused by natural catastrophes have more than doubled in real terms over the past two decades, reaching $280bn globally in 2023, according to Swiss Re. The overall impact is much larger, as acute physical effects ripple through the economy, influencing supply, demand and financial flows – and thus also monetary policy.
    A new Network for Greening the Financial System report compellingly illustrates how natural catastrophes such as floods and hurricanes affect the economy. They destroy homes, local infrastructure and production sites, requiring years and enormous amounts of money to rebuild. Waning confidence could prompt companies and households to cut back on spending, further undermining economic growth prospects.
    Price impacts are not spared, as severe weather events, among other factors, damage agricultural production and drive up food prices across regions. These sectoral effects can lead to an increase in overall inflationary pressures, depending on how much a drop in demand balances them out. For instance, droughts tend to exert upward pressure on headline inflation for several years, with developing economies especially affected, because of their higher dependency on agriculture.
    Against this backdrop, central banks might face the complicated task of taming inflationary pressure in a weak economy. Think of a situation when rising inflationary pressure might warrant policy tightening – particularly for central banks, whose primary mandate is price stability – even though this could contribute to economic strain. The State Bank of Pakistan, for instance, in 2022 opted to continue raising policy rates after the devastating floods caused a sharp increase in food prices.
    Climate change – and its uncertain outcomes – mean that central banks must focus on looking ahead and extend their horizon beyond the usual projection period. Estimates of future impacts illustrate what could be in store for the economy and the financial sector. At a global level, climate change could drive up annual food price inflation by between one and three percentage points by 2035, according to a study of the European Central Bank and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
    However, most studies still fail to consider the risk of crossing climate tipping points, which can significantly accelerate climate change. According to the OECD, ignoring these critical thresholds results in a severe underestimation of the economic costs. Extreme weather events can also bring us closer to these tipping points. The current drought in the Amazon region – the most severe since systematic recording began in 1950 – exemplifies this risk. With one-fifth of the Amazon rainforest already lost, mostly due to deforestation, concerns are mounting that this carbon sponge is on the brink of collapse. That would trigger a cascade of climate events, leading to higher economic costs globally.
    What is more, uncertainties surrounding the magnitude and duration of severe weather events – coupled with governments’ responses – will make the short-term forecasting of key economic indicators particularly challenging. An example is Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and the subsequent landfalls of hurricanes Rita and Wilma. In the highly dynamic weeks and months that followed, staff of the Federal Reserve adjusted their estimates of output and inflation a few times, as new information trickled in. Throughout the process, the Fed remained predictable in its actions, highlighting that good communication is key.
    Central banks have another side to watch, too, namely the green transition. Inflation and output may become more volatile as we undergo a transformation of the energy sector and supply chains. In the short term, carbon pricing and rising climate investments could reinforce inflationary pressures.
    Intensifying climate change adds to the array of challenges that monetary policy needs to adjust to. As extreme weather events become more frequent, central banks must pay even greater attention to longer-term inflation expectations. Though the reaction of each central bank will depend on its mandate, clear communication is essential to guide market expectations and ensure that policy decisions are well understood.

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI German News –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Pule Fakamotu 2024 (Constitution Day Flag Raising) Commemoration

    Source: New Zealand Governor General

    Fakaalofa lahi atu – and my very warmest Pacific greetings.

    I’d like to specifically acknowledge: Prime Minister Tagelagi; Prime Minister Mark Brown of the Cook Islands; Alapati Tavite, Ulu of Tokelau; President Williame Katonivere of Fiji; Ministers and Members of Parliament of Niue; and Members of the Diplomatic Corps.

    Thank you, Prime Minister Tagelagi for inviting Richard and me to join leaders of our ‘Realm family’ and members of the Diplomatic Corps in celebrating this year’s Constitution Day, marking the 50th year of self-government and enduring freedom of association with New Zealand.

    I am honoured to represent His Majesty King Charles III, our Head of State of the Realm of New Zealand, and affirm his best wishes to you all on this very special day for Niue.

    I also wish to convey warmest congratulations from the nearly 31,000 New Zealanders who regard Niue as home. You will be aware of the great pride they take in their distinctive culture, language and traditions, and the strength of their connections to Niue.

    I’m sure those who witnessed that historic moment fifty years ago, on the 19th of October 1974, would be delighted to see what has been achieved in the intervening years: the upgraded roads and airport, the growth of tourism with Matavai Resort and other outstanding new accommodation options, the sea tracks, Niue Development Bank, new government buildings, a supermarket complex, and Millenium Hall.

    Similarly, I hope they would applaud the emphasis on sustainability and the protection of biodiversity, the establishment of a maritime protection area, and modernised waste management systems.

    I hope they would also be pleased to see Niue’s connections to the world, enabled by jet travel and internet access. I’m sure they would be astonished and delighted to see the growth of media and educational opportunities, solar power, electronic banking, an emergency operations centre, and the facilities of a truly modern hospital.

    I was pleased to learn how closely Niue and New Zealand worked to minimise the impact of COVID-19, and I wish to congratulate Prime Minister Tagelagi and everyone involved in keeping the people of Niue safe.

    Nationhood is necessarily an ongoing project, based on a shared understanding of identity, values, and culture.

    All Niueans contribute to this vision, whether they be Assembly Members, Ministers of Cabinet, the Speakers of the Fale Fono, the Public Service Commissioners, Secretaries of Government, the Judges and Judiciary, Niue’s High Commissioners in New Zealand, the Public Service, educators, the keepers of traditional knowledge and crafts, or artists, composers and cultural performers. So too do those Niueans engaged in fishing, growing crops, joining in community and church activities, and hosting tourists – as well as tupuna and spiritual leaders providing wise guidance and counsel across communities.

    I commend the people of Niue for working to sustain and transfer their cultural heritage and traditions. Showdays and Taoga Festivals have brought villages together with the Niuean diaspora to celebrate community, tradition and whanaungatanga. It must be gratifying to see Niueans born in New Zealand choosing to live here, and renew their ties with their culture and history.

    Since 1974, New Zealand has been proud to be Niue’s Constitutional partner, with responsibilities to provide necessary administrative support. The bonds between our two nations have flourished, nurtured by our shared history, language, culture and citizenship.

    The people-to-people links, forged through family ties, friendships, and shared experiences, have created a tapestry of interwoven lives between Niue and New Zealand, and Niue and the Pacific. 

    Today, we are joined by Niueans who have travelled from New Zealand, Australia and beyond to be part of these celebrations.

    Over these past fifty years, Niue has developed its own network of diplomatic, political, trade and economic relationships – and I acknowledge the support and collaboration of such partners and friends who are with us in celebration today. As Niue continues its journey of growth and development, I pay tribute to those partners who have supported those development aspirations, and your vision of a connected and prosperous Niue.

    All of us share in the challenges of our times – particularly climate change – and it is in the absolute interests of all of us to do what is right and what is necessary to build greater resilience and wellbeing for the people of the Pacific.

    This special Aho Pulefakamotu is a time for Niueans to celebrate the legacy of your forebears, and to look forward to how you might shape the destiny of your nation.

    I wish the people of Niue every success with the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead – strengthened by the executive, legislative and judicial processes established by your Constitution – and secure in the knowledge that you will be supported, as always, by your friends in New Zealand.

    Kia moui olaola a Niue. Kia tumau a Niue.  Niue ke Monuina. Niue ko Kaina. Niue ki Mua.

    Now, onwards to the next 50 glorious years. May God Bless Niue. May God Bless you all. Kia fakamonuina mai he Atua a Niue Fekai.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Scurvy is largely a historical disease but there are signs it’s making a comeback

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lauren Ball, Professor of Community Health and Wellbeing, The University of Queensland

    Matilda Wormwood/Pexels

    Scurvy is is often considered a historical ailment, conjuring images of sailors on long sea voyages suffering from a lack of fresh fruit and vegetables.

    Yet doctors in developed countries have recently reported treating cases of scurvy, including Australian doctors who reported their findings today in the journal BMJ Case Reports.

    What is scurvy?

    Scurvy is a disease caused by a severe deficiency of vitamin C (ascorbic acid), which is essential for the production of collagen. This protein helps maintain the health of skin, blood vessels, bones and connective tissue.

    Without enough vitamin C, the body cannot properly repair tissues, heal wounds, or fight infections. This can lead to a range of symptoms including:

    • fatigue and weakness
    • swollen, bleeding gums or loose teeth
    • joint and muscle pain and tenderness
    • bruising easily
    • dry, rough or discoloured skin (reddish or purple spots due to bleeding under the skin)
    • cuts and sores take longer to heal
    • anaemia (a shortage of red blood cells, leading to further fatigue and weakness)
    • increased susceptibility to infections.

    It historically affected sailors

    Scurvy was common from the 15th to 18th centuries, when naval sailors and other explorers lived on rations or went without fresh food for long periods. You might have heard some of these milestones in the history of the disease:

    • in 1497-1499, Vasco da Gama’s crew suffered severely from scurvy during their expedition to India, with a large portion of the crew dying from it

    • from the 16th to 18th centuries, scurvy was rampant among European navies and explorers, affecting notable figures such as Ferdinand Magellan and Sir Francis Drake. It was considered one of the greatest threats to sailors’ health during long voyages

    • in 1747, British naval surgeon James Lind is thought to have conducted one of the first clinical trials, demonstrating that citrus fruit could prevent and cure scurvy. However, it took several decades for his findings to be widely implemented

    • in 1795, the British Royal Navy officially adopted the practice of providing lemon or lime juice to sailors, dramatically reducing the number of scurvy cases.

    Evidence of scurvy re-emerging

    In the new case report, doctors in Western Australia reported treating a middle-aged man with the condition. In a separate case report, doctors in Canada reported treating a 65-year old woman.

    There’s an abundance of vitamin C in our food supply, but some people still aren’t getting enough.
    Rebecca Kate/Pexels

    Both patients presented with leg weakness and compromised skin, yet the doctors didn’t initially consider scurvy. This was based on the premise that there is abundant vitamin C in our modern food supply, so deficiency should not occur.

    On both occasions, treatment with high doses of vitamin C (1,000mg per day for at least seven days) resulted in improvements in symptoms and eventually a full recovery.

    The authors of both case reports are concerned that if scurvy is left untreated, it could lead to inflamed blood vessels (vasculitis) and potentially cause fatal bleeding.

    Last year, a major New South Wales hospital undertook a chart review, where patient records are reviewed to answer research questions.

    This found vitamin C deficiency was common. More than 50% of patients who had their vitamin C levels tested had either a modest deficiency (29.9%) or significant deficiency (24.5%). Deficiencies were more common among patients from rural and lower socioeconomic areas.

    Now clinicians are urged to consider vitamin C deficiency and scurvy as a potential diagnosis and involve the support of a dietitian.

    Why might scurvy be re-emerging?

    Sourcing and consuming nutritious foods with sufficient vitamin C is unfortunately still an issue for some people. Factors that increase the risk of vitamin C deficiency include:

    • poor diet. People with restricted diets – due to poverty, food insecurity or dietary choices – may not get enough vitamin C. This includes those who rely heavily on processed, nutrient-poor foods rather than fresh produce

    • food deserts. In areas where access to fresh, affordable fruits and vegetables is limited (often referred to as food deserts), people may unintentionally suffer from a vitamin C deficiency. In some parts of developing countries such as India, lack of access to fresh food is recognised as a risk for scurvy

    • the cost-of-living crisis. With greater numbers of people unable to pay for fresh produce, people who limit their intake of fruits and vegetables may develop nutrient deficiencies, including scurvy

    Capsicums are a good source of vitamin D but they’re not cheap.
    Pexels/Jack Sparrow

    • weight loss procedures and medications. Restricted dietary intake due to weight loss surgery or weight loss medications may lead to nutrient deficiencies, such as in this case report of scurvy from Denmark

    • mental illness and eating disorders. Conditions such as depression and anorexia nervosa can lead to severely restricted diets, increasing the risk of scurvy, such as in this case report from 2020 in Canada

    • isolation. Older adults, especially those who live alone or in nursing homes, may have difficulty preparing balanced meals with sufficient vitamin C

    • certain medical conditions. People with digestive disorders, malabsorption issues, or those on restrictive medical diets (due to severe allergies or intolerances) can develop scurvy if they are unable to absorb or consume enough vitamin C.

    How much vitamin C do we need?

    Australia’s dietary guidelines recommend adults consume 45mg of vitamin C (higher if pregnant or breastfeeding) each day. This is roughly the amount found in half an orange or half a cup of strawberries.

    When more vitamin C is consumed than required, excess amounts leave the body through urine.

    Signs of scurvy can appear as early as a month after a daily intake of less than 10 mg of vitamin C.

    Eating vitamin C-rich foods – such as oranges, strawberries, kiwifruit, plums, pineapple, mango, capsicum, broccoli and Brussels sprouts – can resolve symptoms within a few weeks.

    Vitamin C is also readily available as a supplement if there are reasons why intake through food may be compromised. Typically, the supplements contain 1,000mg per tablet, and the recommended upper limit for daily Vitamin C intake is 2,000mg.

    Lauren Ball receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Queensland Health and Mater Misericordia. She is a Director of Dietitians Australia, a Director of Food Standards Australia and New Zealand, a Director of the Darling Downs and West Moreton Primary Health Network and an Associate Member of the Australian Academy of Health and Medical Sciences.

    – ref. Scurvy is largely a historical disease but there are signs it’s making a comeback – https://theconversation.com/scurvy-is-largely-a-historical-disease-but-there-are-signs-its-making-a-comeback-241894

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Apia Ocean Declaration to be ‘crown jewel’ of CHOGM climate ‘fight back’

    By Sialai Sarafina Sanerivi in Apia

    The Ocean Declaration that will be agreed upon at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) this week will be known as the Apia Ocean Declaration.

    In an exclusive interview with the Samoa Observer, Commonwealth Secretary-General Patricia Scotland said members were in a unique position to bring their voices together for the oceans, which have long been neglected.

    “The Apia Ocean Declaration aims to address the rising threats to our ocean faces, especially from climate change and rising sea levels,” she said.


    Commonwealth pushes for ocean protection with historic Apia Ocean Declaration. Video: Samoa Observer

    Scotland, reflecting on her tenure as Secretary-General, noted the privilege of serving the Commonwealth, a diverse family of 56 countries comprising 2.7 billion people.

    “I am very much the child of the Commonwealth. With 60 percent of our population under 30 years, we must prioritise their future.”

    Scotland reflected that upon assuming her role, she recognised immediately that addressing climate change would be a key priority for the Commonwealth.

    “Why? Because we have 33 small states, 25 small island states and we were the ones who were really suffering this badly,” she said.

    Pacific a ‘big blue ocean state’
    “We also knew in 2016 that nobody was looking at the oceans. Now, the Pacific is a big blue ocean state.

    “But it’s one of the most under-resourced elements that we have. And yet, look at what was happening. The hurricanes and the cyclones were getting bigger and bigger.

    “Why? Because our ocean had absorbed so much of the heat, so much of the carbon, and now it was starting to become saturated. So before, our ocean acted as a coolant. The cyclone would come, the hurricane would come, they’d pass over our cool blue water, and the heat would be drawn out.”

    The Apia Ocean Declaration emerged from a pressing need to protect the oceans, especially given the devastating impact of climate change on coastal and island nations.

    “We realised that while many discussions were happening globally, the oceans were often overlooked,” Scotland remarked.

    “In 2016, we recognised the necessity for collective action. Our oceans absorb much of the carbon and heat, leading to increasingly severe hurricanes and cyclones.”

    Scotland has spearheaded initiatives that brought together oceanographers, climatologists, and various stakeholders.

    Commonwealth Secretary-General Patricia Scotland . . . discussing this week’s planned Apia Ocean Declaration at CHOGM, highlighting the urgent need for global action to protect oceans. Image: Junior S. Ami/Samoa Observer

    Worked in silos ‘for too long’
    “We worked in silos for too long. It was time to unite our efforts for the ocean’s health.

    “That’s when we realised that nobody had their eye on our oceans, but of the 56 Commonwealth members, many of us are island states, so our whole life is dependent on our ocean. And so that’s when the fight back happened.”

    This collaboration resulted in the establishment of the Commonwealth Blue Charter, a significant framework focused on ocean conservation.

    “Fiji’s presidency at the UN Oceans Conference was a turning point. Critics said it would take years to establish an ocean instrument, but we achieved it in less than ten months.”

    “We are not just talking; we are implementing solutions.”

    Scotland also addressed the financial challenges faced by many small island states, particularly regarding climate funding.

    “In 2009, $100 billion was promised by those who had been primarily responsible for the climate crisis, to help those of us who contributed almost nothing to get over the hump.

    Hard for finance applications
    “But the money wasn’t coming. And in those days, many of our members found it so hard to put those applications together.”

    To combat this issue, the Commonwealth established a Climate Finance Access Hub, facilitating over $365 million in funding for member states with another $500 million in the pipeline.

    “But this has caused us to say we have to go further,” she added.

    “We’re using geospatial data, we have to fill in the gaps for our members who don’t have the data, so we can look at what has happened in the past, what may happen in the future, and now we have AI to help us do the simulators.

    “The Ocean Ministers’ Conference highlighted the importance of ensuring that countries at risk of disappearing under the waves can maintain their maritime jurisdiction,” Scotland asserted.

    “The thing that we thought was so important is that those countries threatened with the rising of the sea, which could take away their whole island, don’t have certainty in terms of that jurisdiction. What will happen if our islands drop below the sea level?

    “And we wanted our member states to be confident that if they had settled their marine boundaries, that jurisdiction would be set in perpetuity. Because that was the biggest guarantee; I may lose my land, but please don’t tell me I’m going to lose my ocean too.

    Target an ocean declaration
    “So that was the target for the Ocean Ministers’ Conference. And out of that came the idea that we would have an ocean declaration.

    “It is that ocean declaration that we are bringing here to Samoa. And the whole poignancy of that is Samoa is the first small island state in the Pacific ever to host CHOGM. So wouldn’t it be beautiful if out of this big blue ocean state, this wonderful Pacific state, we could get an ocean declaration which could in the future be able to be known as the Apia Ocean Declaration? Because we would really mark what we’re doing here.

    “What the Commonwealth has been determined to do throughout this whole period is not just talk, but take positive action to help our members not only just to survive, but to thrive.

    “And if, which I hope we will, we get an agreement from our 56 states on this ocean declaration, it enables us to put the evidence before everyone, not only to secure what we need, but then to say 0.05 percent of the money is not enough to save our oceans.

    “Oceans are the most underfunded area.

    “I hope that all the work we’ve done on the Universal Vulnerability Index, on the nature of the vulnerability for our members, will be able to justify proper money, proper resources being put in.

    “And you know what’s happening in this area; our fishermen are under threat.

    “Our ability to use the oceans in the way we’ve used for millennia to feed our people, support our people, is really under threat. So this CHOGM is our fight back.”

    As the meeting progresses, the emphasis remains on achieving consensus among the 56 member states regarding the Apia Ocean Declaration.

    Republished from the Samoa Observer with permission.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI USA News: Remarks by President  Biden at a Memorial Service for Mrs. Robert F.  Kennedy

    Source: The White House

    3:53 P.M. EDT

    THE PRESIDENT:  Hello.  (Applause.)

    Joe, thank you.

    Thank you, thank you, thank you.  (Applause.) 

    I’m sure you’re clapping because I’m the last speaker. 

    Well, that was worth that partial comment — or concert.  You know what he said on the way out?  Can I tell them, pal?  He said, “If I get a Grammy, I’m going to give it to you,” the only guy in this whole darn church who can’t sing a note.  (Laughter.)

    My dad used to have a band and sang.  He said, “Joey, I don’t know where the hell you came from.  You can’t carry a tune.  You can’t sing.  You can’t dance.  I don’t know where you came from, but I love you anyway.”  (Laughter.)

    Father MacMillan, thank you for everything.  Thank you for — for being so good to us. 

    President Clinton, President Obama, distinguished guests; the Kennedy family, children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren, and extended family, it’s been an emotional journey listening to all of you.  When I knew I was going to be the last speaker, I thought, “How did that happen?”  Because, you know, it brings back so many memories. 

    Ethel was always there for so many people, and she played an essential role in my life as well — maybe a little different than with others.  She was there as soon as I entered political office in 1972 as a 29-year-old kid before I got sworn in. 

    I was in her brother-in-law’s office — Teddy’s office — hiring staff — I was only 29; you had to be 30 years old to be sworn in, and I wasn’t 30 yet — when I got a phone call from the fire department in my — by my house saying there had been an accident.  A tractor-trailer had broadsided my wife’s automobile, Christmas shopping with a Christmas tree on top, on December 18th, and killed my wife and killed my daughter, and my boys weren’t expected to live. 

    When I lost my family — and she was there.  Joe, your mom was there then — then.  

    As soon as I got elected president, I received a letter from your mom.  The letterhead was titled Mrs. Robert Kennedy, and in her very neat handwriting, she had written that she took great comfort in knowing the country was in good hands. 

    She had no idea, for a 29-year-old kid in that circumstance, how much it meant.  Because as some of you know — Bill knows — I didn’t plan on sticking around after that accident. 

    She said she was honored and proud there was a bust of her husband, Bobby Kennedy, in my office, the Oval Office. 

    I have only two political heroes in my life: Dr. King and Bobby Kennedy.  Not a joke.  So, I didn’t realize — my two colleagues from the — who were president know — you get to pick what you want in your office, and I wanted to be able to see both of them from my — from the Resolute Desk by the fireplace: Dr. King and Bobby Kennedy.

    And days later, I received another letter from her that I’ll always remember, and I know all of you look forward to each year: a valentine card — a valentine card.  Which, in our house, Valentine’s Day is known as “Jill’s holiday.”  (Laughter.)

    Like Ethel, Jill is a practical joker.  This was no surprise — it was no surprise that Jill loved Ethel’s card that year, which said — I’m not sure the hundred others who receive it felt the same way because, apparently, she sent that card — she sent it to everyone that year.  (Laughter.)  It was a picture of me and Ethel surrounded by hearts.  (Laughter.)  Oh, you think I’m kidding.  I — it meant a lot to me, I’m telling you.

    Printed — the language on the card, it said — in the printed language of the card, it said, “I’m not Biden my time waiting for you, Valentine.”  (Laughter.)  And then in her handwriting, she says, “‘Cause he’s no ordinary Joe.”  (Laughter.) 

    I don’t know how many of you got that damn valentine, but I tell you what, it meant a lot to me.  (Laughter.)  I’ve received a lot honors in my life, but that might be the best one I’ve ever received.  (Laughter and applause.)

    You know, yes, Ethel was Mrs. Robert Kennedy.  She was one of my politi- — he was my — as I said, one of my political heroes.  But I always knew her as Ethel Kennedy, a hero in her own right.  I loved Bobby Kennedy.  I’ve only met him once when I was in Syracuse law school and he was campaigning.  But I — I just — I admired him so damn much. 

    I’ve told John Kerry this, my buddy.  I — I could picture Bobby at my kitchen table with my dad and my mom.  I could picture him there.

    But, you know, Ethel was a hero in her own right, full of character, full of integrity and empathy — and genuine empathy. 

    She was full of laughter and joy and light.  She was a great athlete in her own right, for real.  She was a mother.  Literally, there was nothing, from my perspective and, I suspect, most of you, that she couldn’t do — nothing.

    Four years later, after I had gotten — after Bobby — she lost her beloved Bobby, she invited me and my boys to her home after the accident left my family broken, having lost my wife and daughter, my boys barely making it.  Along with Teddy, she got me through a time I didn’t want to stick around.  I wanted no part of being in the Congress or the Senate.  I mean it.

    I’d spoken to my governor, because we had elected a Democratic governor, to find a replacement for me.  But Teddy and Ethel Kennedy would hear nothi- — none of it. 

    You know, the fact is, like she did for the country, Ethel helped my family find a way forward with principle and purpose. 

    We saw how she picked up Bobby’s cause and stamped her own mark on the country.  Marching for civil rights, as you heard about today, and working to end poverty at home, attempting to secure peace abroad, and so much more.  She once said, “For anyone to achieve something, you have to show a little courage.  You’re only on this Earth once.  You must give it all you’ve got.”

    Reminded me of my mom.  My mom used to say, “Joey, courage lives in every heart, and one day you’ll be called upon.  Be ready to stand up.”  And that’s not — that’s from Catherine Eugenia Finnegan Biden, and she meant it.  She meant it.

    For over 50 years, with Ethel’s own iron will and moral courage, she gave it everything she had, and we’re a better nation and a better world because of Ethel Kennedy. 

    Let me close with this.  On a Sunday in May this year, I delivered a commencement speech at Morehouse College in Atlanta.  I noted that had we been in church that day, there’d be a reflection about the resurrection and redemption.  We remember Jesus was buried on Friday, and on Sunday, he rose again.  But we don’t talk nearly enough about that Saturday when his disciples felt all hope was lost — all hope was lost. 

    In our lives and in the life of the nation, we have those Saturdays — and thank God your mom, your grandmom, your great-grandmom was — was there for me — to bear witness to the day before glory, to see people’s pain and not look away.  But work is to be done on Saturday, is to move pain to purpose.  How can faith get a person, get a nation through what is coming? 

    Well, my message to all of us here today and to the entire the country is look to Ethel Kennedy’s faith. 

    To the Kennedy family — presumptuous of me to say this and maybe sound inappropriate, but to the Kennedy family, the Biden family is here for you, as you’ve always been for us.  You changed the life of my boys.  You really did.

    When I lost my son Beau, he was attorney general of the state of Delaware.  And he volunteered to join the National Guard as attorney general.  You either have to be state property or federal property.  And he temporarily gave up his office to go with his unit for a year in Iraq.  And unfortunately, I was in — in out — in and out of Iraq, as Barack knows, because — and Afghanistan 30-some times.  And I got to see him several times.

    But the bad news was he was about a quarter to a half mile away from a burn pit — 100 yards long, 10 feet deep, burning everything from waste to — everything, poisoning the air.  And he came home with Stage 4 glioblastoma and he died.  Your mom was there then too. 

    I apologize.

    So, from the Biden family to the Kennedy family, the hymn that’s very close to our heart based on the 91st psalm, it goes like this: “May he raise you up on eagle’s wings and bear you on the breath of dawn, and make you to shine like the sun, and hold you in the palm of his hand.” 

    May God bless Ethel Kennedy, and may we — she re- — may be — she be reunited with the blessed pieces of her soul in Heaven.

    God bless you all.  And thank you for letting me participate.  Thank you.  (Applause.)

    4:04 P.M. EDT

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA News: Press Gaggle by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan En Route Berlin,  Germany

    Source: The White House

    2:15 P.M. EDT

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  Okay.  So, I’m just going to get straight to it.  

    As you can see, I have the national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, here to talk to us about the trip but also the latest in the Middle East.

    Jake, the floor is yours. 

    MR. SULLIVAN:  So, I don’t know if you guys have heard because of the lack of Wi-Fi back here, but the IDF has confirmed the death of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader, and I’ll come to that in just a moment. 

    But let me start by laying out what we hope to achieve over the course of the next 24 hours in Berlin.  This is the president’s first visit to Berlin as president, and he did not want his time in office to go by without going to the capital of one of — one of our most important partners and allies. 

    Germany is a core Ally in NATO, a core partner in the G7.  They’ve been a core player in the Allied response to Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine.  And the president is looking forward to having the opportunity to talk to the chancellor and other German officials about where we go from here in Ukraine; about developments in the Middle East, in Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, Israel; about how we align our respective approaches on the PRC; about how we align our industrial and innovation strategies; about artificial intelligence and the clean energy transition. 

    He will also have the opportunity to meet with the prime minister of the UK and president of France.  The four leaders — Germany, France, UK, U.S. — will sit together to particularly focus on two issues.

    One, the war in Ukraine and the pathway ahead, particularly in light of the fact that they’ve all had the opportunity to engage in person with President Zelenskyy over the course of the last few weeks and heard from him about where he sees things going.  So, this is an opportunity to consult on that.

    And then, second, to talk about the ongoing and fast-moving developments across the Middle East region.

    The president will see President Steinmeier.  He’ll spend one-on-one time with Chancellor Scholz.  He’ll spend time with his delegation — with Chancellor Scholz and his delegation. 

    And then, of course, there’ll be this meeting among the four leaders in the afternoon, and there’ll be an opportunity for press statements with the chancellor and the president. 

    So, that’s the plan for tomorrow.

    Of course, this comes against the backdrop of a pretty significant — very significant day in the Middle East, and that is that Yahya Sinwar has been taken off the battlefield.  This is a murderous terrorist responsible for the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust.  He has a lot of blood on his hands — Israeli blood, American blood, Palestinian blood — and the world is better now that he’s gone. 

    President Biden has just put out a written statement sharing his thoughts and reactions to the death of Sinwar, and he looks forward to the opportunity soon, perhaps very shortly, to speak to Prime Minister Netanyahu to congratulate the IDF and the brave Israeli soldiers and security professionals who carried out the operation that killed Sinwar but also to talk about the way forward, because Sinwar was a massive obstacle to peace and the day after in Gaza.  And now that that obstacle has been removed, President Biden looks forward to talking to Prime Minister Netanyahu about how we secure the return of the hostages, an end to the war, and a move to the day after in Gaza — a Gaza where Hamas is no longer in power or control. 

    So they’ll have the opportunity to have an initial conversation about that, but this truly is an opportunity we need to seize together to bring about a better day for the people of Gaza, the people of Israel, the people of the whole region.  And the United States is committed to doing everything in our power to help contribute to that. 

    Last thing I will say is that from shortly after October 7th, President Biden dispatched special operations personnel and intelligence professionals to Israel to work side by side with their Israeli counterparts in the hunt for Hamas leaders, including Sinwar, and it was with American intelligence help that many of these leaders, including Sinwar, were hunted and tracked, were flushed out of their hiding places, and put on the run.  And, ultimately, this is a credit to the IDF for taking out Sinwar over the course of the last hours and days, but we’re proud of the support that the United States has given to the IDF all along the way. 

    So, with that, I’d be happy to take your questions.

    Q    Jake —

    Q    Can you say anything — well, go ahead.  I’m sorry. 

    Q    Jake, thanks so much for doing this.  You kind of implied that Sinwar had been an obstacle to hostage release and ceasefire.  How big an obstacle is that?  And does this give you additional hope now of a ceasefire and possibly a hostage release?  How should we process this?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  I didn’t just imply it; I stated it explicitly. 

    At various points along the way, Sinwar was more interested in causing mayhem and chaos and death than in actually trying to achieve a ceasefire and hostage deal.  And we repeatedly saw moments where it was him, in particular, who stood in the way of making progress towards a ceasefire and hostage deal.  Now, there were other obstacles too along the way, but he was certainly a critical one. 

    And, yes, I think his removal from the battlefield does present an opportunity to find a way forward that gets the hostages home, brings the war to an end, brings us to a day after.  That’s something we’re going to have to talk about with our Israeli counterparts.

    Of course, there are still other Hamas actors who need to be brought to justice, and there are hostages, including Americans, being held by terrorists.  We’re going to have to deal with all of that, but we believe there is a renewed opportunity right now that we would like to seize.

    Yeah.

    Q    Do you assess this as being the cutting off of the head of the Hydra, or what — what’s your assessment of Hamas’ capabilities from now on?  Is there going to be a mop up?  And what — what would you recommend the Israelis do?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  Sinwar was a critical figure operationally, militarily, and politically for Hamas.  He had, in fact, consolidated control of both the political and military wing under his singular leadership in — in recent weeks and months.  And so, this is a very significant event.

    But what exactly it means for the future of Hamas as an organization, it’s early days yet.  We will have to see.

    What we do know is that the broad military structure, the battalions of Hamas have been systematically dismantled.  We do know that Hamas does not pose the kind of threat to Israel that it posed on October 7th or anything close to it.  We also know that there are still Hamas terrorists wielding guns and holding hostages and harboring a desire to continue to attack Israel and attack others. 

    And so, we’re going to have to sort through all of that.  But this is an incredibly significant blow to Hamas.  It is the removal of someone who, as I said, was unique in the consolidation of the control of the Hamas apparatus under his command.  And now we will have to work to ensure that his death actually does deal the kind of long-term blow to Hamas that all of us would like to see.

    Q    Can you give —

    Q    Do you get the sense that Netanyahu is done now, that he’s — he’s reached his objectives?  You just laid out the decimation of Hamas — 

    MR. SULLIVAN:  No, his critical objective that — has not been reached.  That objective is the return of the hostages, including American hostages.  So, from the United States’ perspective, we now need to work with Israel, with Qatar and Egypt, with others — and this is something we’ll discuss with our European partners as well — to secure the release of those hostages.  We’d like to see that happen.

    Q    You referenced U.S. intel.  To what extent did that play a role in this particular operation? 

    MR. SULLIVAN:  This operation was an IDF operation.  I’m not here to overclaim or — or try to take credits for something where the credit belongs to them. 

    But the Americans — the special operations personnel, the intelligence professionals — they also deserve our thanks for the work that they did alongside the IDF over the course of many months to help create the kind of counterterrorism pressure in Gaza that put a lot of these guys on the run.  And Sinwar was plainly on the run (inaudible).

    Q    Earlier this — earlier this week, Secretary Blinken and Secretary Austin sent letters to their counterparts threatening legal action if the humanitari- — humanitarian situation in Gaza doesn’t improve.  Can you give us a sense of what that legal option would be and if there are any deadlines or specific actions that the president will raise with Prime Minister Netanyahu about that today?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  The letter speaks for itself.  I think a lot of the headlines were breathless and overblown.  We have had an ongoing dialogue with Israel for months now about improving the humanitarian situation.  We have had previous communications that looked quite similar and that generated positive momentum towards opening crossings and getting more aid in.  We’ve had, actually, constructive back-and-forth with our Israeli counterparts over the last few days in response to our requests, and we expect that we’ll see progress on the ground. 

    One thing that has unfolded this week is — is the reopening of some of the crossings that had been closed in the north and trucks going in.  We need to see that sustained and expanded as we go forward, among the other requests in that letter. 

    But I’d — and I’d — just the other point I would make here is that it’s — it was a private diplomatic communication.  It was a serious, substantive laydown.  It’s part of our ongoing work and partnership with Israel.  And having it all out there in the open, leaked in the way that it was, I think, was highly unfortunate.  And I’ll leave it at that.

    Q    Can you give us a sense of what the president will say in this conversation with Netanyahu?  Will he push for an accelerated timeline for a ceasefire?  Will he say, you

    know, kind of, “Now you achieved the main direct- — main objective and we should move forward on — on other things,” or push for humanitarian aid?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  I’m going to let the president speak to the prime minister before I preview what he’s going to say in the press on the record, but we’ll try to give you a good sense of both what the president is thinking and what he’s communicating to the prime minister at the appropriate time.

    Q    To — to what extent do you think this success with Sinwar might embolden Netanyahu when it comes to retaliating against Iran?  Or do you see them as totally unrelated?  And what are your conversations right now with them in terms of restraint — or whatever you want to call it — when the president has thoughts about what the target should be when they hit back?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  We’ve had very constructive communications with the Israelis about how they’re thinking about responding to the attack on October 1st.  Those conversations will continue. 

    I can’t speculate as to the psychology of the prime minister based on what happened today.  What I can say is that the logic of deterrence, the logic of a response to a salvo of 200 ballistic missiles — nothing in the Middle East is unrelated, but that is a distinct logic from the killing of Sinwar today.

    Q    Jake, going back to the trip.  What message will President Biden give his fellow leaders about America’s place in the world, given the uncertainty around our upcoming election?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  Say that again.

    Q    What reassurance will President Biden give his fellow leaders about America’s place in the world, given the uncertainty about our upcoming presidential election?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  What President Biden can do is what he’s done for four years, which is lay out his vision of America’s place in the world and point the way forward based on what he thinks are in America’s national security interests and in the interests of our close allies. 

    Beyond that, he can’t speak for anyone else and doesn’t intend to.

    Q    Is there any —

    Q    Does this change your calculus on whether Israel can come to the table on a ceasefire by the end of the year?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  I’m sorry?

    Q    Your calculus on whether a ceasefire could be reached by the end of the year.

    MR. SULLIVAN:  I have long since given up on making predictions or drawing timelines.  All I can say is that we see an opportunity now that we want to seize to try to secure the release of the hostages, and we’re going to work at that as rapidly as we possibly can.

    Q    Give- — given the situation, would the president reconsider possibly holding a press conference during his time in Berlin?  It would be good to hear from him firsthand on how he thinks about this and the situation in Ukraine. 

    MR. SULLIVAN:  I will note for the record there are heads nodding.  (Laughter.)  I’ll also note for the record that that is a really fascinating way to bring the press into the middle of a world historical event.  So — (laughter) — and I’ll leave it at that.

    Q    I’ll follow up on that.  The president talks about democracy as being a key part of his administration, of his vision for America that you just referenced.  Why would he not take questions from the press at what was originally going to be a state visit to Germany?  I don’t understand.

    MR. SULLIVAN:  It’s fascinating how you guys can — (laughs) — make this the story.

    Q    It’s not the story.  It’s just a question. 

    MR. SULLVIAN:  I mean, honestly, I think invoking democracy and suggesting that President Biden is somehow insufficiently committed to it because of the structure of his press engagement on one day in Germany is a bit ludicrous. 

    Q    I can ask a Germany question.  So, a lot of the moves that President Biden has made both domestically and internationally have been characterized as “Trump-proofing” the — the, you know, U.S. government for a future Trump presidency. 

    How do you feel about that characterization?  I’m talking about moves like bringing NATO under — forgive me, it’s too complicated to explain, but you know what I’m talking about. 

    So, do you think he’s Trump-proofing?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  I — I don’t like characterizations like that because they’re inherently political.

    Q    So, what is he doing, then?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  What the president is trying to do is to make our commitment to Ukraine sustainable and institutionalized for the long term.  And every other ally agreed that that was the responsible thing to do. 

    The la- —

    Q    (Inaudible) necessarily reduced U.S. role, is that the idea?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  Not at all.  The basic logic was what the president laid out at the Washington Summit this summer, which is the communiqué said Ukraine’s place, Ukraine’s future, is in NATO.  There is work to do to get from here to there, including reforms and security conditions being met. 

    So, the question is, how do you build a bridge from where we are now to Ukraine’s eventual membership in NATO?  And the answer to that question was the set of deliverables in Washington, including the institutionalization of the security support apparatus for Ukraine.  That is what we were trying to accomplish, and that’s what we believe we did accomplish.

    Q    Jake, on Iran.  Can you confirm and elaborate on reporting that President Biden directed the NSC to warn Iran that any attempt on President Trump’s life would be seen as an act of war?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  I will tell you that President Biden has taken this issue with the utmost seriousness.  He asked to be updated on it regularly.  He gives us direction for how to respond to it regularly and in a very serious and consequential way.  We are following his directives and implementing them.  And I’m not going to get into specifics on what that looks like.

    Q    Jake, what about these reports that President Trump and President Putin have had seven conversations?  Are you worried about this?  Are you worried about any sort of backdoor conversations President Trump is having with leaders?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  I do not know if that’s true or not, but obviously that would raise red flags if it were true. 

    Q    Another one on — since you just said Putin.  There’s been reporting in Germany that Chancellor Scholz said he would be open to speaking with President Putin ahead of the G20 if asked — sort of various ways he said it.  Have you guys talked about this?  Has he told President Biden about this?  Do you think this would be a good idea to do a leader-level conversation with President Putin at this time?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  That has not come up between the chancellor and the president.  You know, I was just in Germany at the end of last week with my German counterpart.  That — the question of a call to Putin didn’t come up.  So, I think that’s a question better put to the chancellor. 

    Q    The official who briefed us yesterday about the Germany trip on the — on the phone mentioned that the Ramstein meeting would be rescheduled.  Does that mean the president will be going back to Ramstein at some point, or what — what did that mean?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  We will hold a leaders-level Ramstein meeting virtually in November.

    Q    One more.  On the frozen assets deal — the Russian frozen assets.  What’s the progress on that there?  I assume this comes up in the conversations.  Is there a plan B if the EU doesn’t figure out a sanctions regime?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  I’m feeling very good about the progress that we’ve made on the G7 commitment to mobilize $50 billion from the proceeds of the Russian sovereign assets by the end of the year.  We intend to meet that commitment, and we intend to make a contribution — the United States.  The EU, obviously, has announced that it’s prepared to make a contribution.  So are other partners.  So, from my perspective, at this point, everything is on track. 

    Q    Is there any update on when the president might talk to President Xi?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  No.

    Thank you, guys. 

    Q    Thank you.

    Q    Who you — wait, who are you rooting for in the playoffs, World Series?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  I’m a Minnesota Twins fan, so I can’t root for the Guardians, but I definitely can’t root for the Yankees.

    I don’t know.

    Q    What about the Dodgers and Mets?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  Yeah, I’m watching, but actually I don’t — I’ve not clearly determined who I’d prefer to win.  But, yeah, Dodgers or Mets. 

    Q    Can you swing back and talk to us off the record later?

    MR. SULLIVAN:  Sure. 

    Q    Great.

    Q    Thanks.

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  I don’t know.  Is there any real thing — anything else to discuss?  Let me t- —

    Q    The only thing I would say is we disagree with the suggestion that democracy and speaking — and taking questions from the press is “ludicrous.” 

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  All right.  Noted.

    Q    I would argue that our stories allow the president to have a relationship with the world, not just with other leaders, and the ability to talk openly will help that. 

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  All right.  Noted.  Noted. 

    Let’s move on.

    So, just want to talk about an announcement.  This is domestic, obviously, going to go to the — to that space.  I just wanted to touch on an announcement very quickly.

    And so, today, the Biden-Harris administration announced an additional $4.5 billion in student debt cancelation for over 60,000 public service workers, bringing the total number of public — of public service workers who have had their student debt canceled under the Biden-Harris administration to over 1 million people. 

    One such example is Kelly, a kindergarten teacher in Rhode Island, who had been paying off her student loans for a decade.  After the student let her know that her debt had been canceled, she tol- — after the president, pardon me — she told us that after 12 years of marriage, she might be able to take the honeymoon she never had.

    The president — the president’s administration made it a priority to fix the Public Service Loan Forgiveness Program.  Prior to our administration, only 7,000 public service workers had received relief since the program was established in 2007. 

    Thanks to the work of the Biden-Harris administration, as of today, 1 million teachers, nurses, firefighters, service members, first resp- — responders, and — and more who — who pursued careers in public service have gotten the relief they deserve. 

    The relief brings the total loan forgiveness approved by the Biden-Harris administration — administration to over $175 billion for nearly 5 million Americans.  And while — meanwhile, our Republicans elected officials have repeatedly attempted to block student debt relief. 

    President Biden and Vice President Harris remain committed to making education affordable for all Americans. 

    With that, what else do you guys have for me?

    Q    I have a question. 

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  Sure.

    Q    Did President Biden talk to Vice President Harris ahead of this trip to see if she had any message for the world leaders or to get her input on what the situation should be going forward? 

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  As you know, the president and the vice president talk regularly.  I don’t have a specific call to — to read out, but I think you can see the last almost four years of the — what we’ve been able to do, what the president has been able to do on the world stage, certainly has been in partnership with the vice president.  I know that she supports his trip and everything that he’s — he’s trying to do tomorrow in the — in the short trip that we have in — in Germany.

    I just don’t have anything to read out as a call specifically on this trip.

    Q    Is the president or the administration facing pressure from allies to get something done after the election but before he is out of office?  There’s been some talks that Zelenskyy — you know, whether that’s accelerating a push for Ukraine into NATO or — or other funding things for Ukraine?

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  Well, you’re talking about the victory plan.  Certainly, I’m going to let the Ukr- — Ukrainians speak to their victory plan as it relates to that question about NATO. 

    Look, I think — I think what you have seen from this president, from this administration — obviously, including the vice president — is how much we have stand behind — next to, if you will — with Ukrainians and how they’re trying to beat back the aggression that we’ve seen from Russia.  And you have not just seen us standing there.  You’ve seen this president take action, and — which is why you see NATO much stronger than it was, and that’s why you see 50 countries have gotten behind Ukraine.  And you heard us — you heard us lay out yesterday an additional assistance package that we have provided to Ukrainians. 

    And so, we’re going to have to continue — we’re going to continue having conversations with the Ukrainians on what they need on the battlefield and how else we can be helpful to them. 

    As it relates to their victory plan — as it relates to what’s next, I’m certainly going to let the Ukrainians speak directly about that. 

    Obviously, the president has had a conversation with the president, President Zelenskyy, on that plan.  I just don’t have anything beyond that, and I’m not — certainly, I’m not going to get into hypotheticals from here. 

    Q    The president at the funeral yesterday had a — what looked like a spirited conversation with former President Obama.  Did you talk to him about what they discussed?

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  No, it’s been kind of busy the last couple hours on the plane, as you can imagine. 

    Look, I’ll — I’ll say this.  The president really very much looked — appreciated being there at the — at the funeral of Ethel Kennedy, who he saw as someone who was incredible and had a — was an incredible force, obviously, in her life, during her — her years.  And what he wanted to do is — was to lift up — lift her up and speak to her accomplishment and what she meant to him — not just to him but to her family and to the country.  So, he appreciated doing that. 

    And we have said many times the president and — and president — and former President Biden [Obama] — they have a very close relationship.  They’ve had one for a long time, obviously, as he served as his vice president.

    I don’t have anything else to — to share on that.  I have not had this conversation with the president.  Obviously, we’ve been pretty busy these past couple of hours on the plane. 

    Q    Do you know if the president was able to watch any of the Fox News interview that Vice President Harris did?  And does —

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  Yes, he —

    Q    — did he talk to you about how — how she did? 

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  Yeah, he was able to — to catch that.  And he saw her performance, her interview as strong.  And I think what you saw and what — and this is what he believes — is that you saw why Americans and people want to see her continuing to fight for them.  And that’s what he saw last night.  That’s what we all saw — many of us saw.  So, I think she was strong and incredibly impressive in that interview. 

    Q    Karine, does the president believe that his vice president would be a markedly different leader?

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  I mean, look, he talked about this on Tuesday when he was in Philly, and he — and I talked a little bit about this as well, just reit- — really reiterating what the president shared, which is that, look, she’s going to be essentially her own person, right?  She is going to have her own direction, her own view of how to move forward. 

    And he did that, right?  He was loyal to President Obama when he was vice president, but he cut his own path.  And so, that’s what he expects from the vice president to do. 

    So, nothing — nothing new.  That’s what he expects her to do — to have her own path, to have — to build on — certainly, to build on the economic successes that we have seen and continuing the — the work that we’ve been able to do. 

    But she’s going to cut her own path.  He was very clear about that a couple days ago.

    Q    Karine —

    Q    But on student loans — you talked about the PSLF 1 million, a huge achievement for those borrowers — what’s your message for the other 40 million-plus borrowers who’ve been caught up in a lot of legal limbo over the past three years?

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  Look, I’ll — I’ll say this.  You know, I’m not going to speak to the legal — the legal components of this.  There are legal matters that are happening, so they are ongoing.  So, I’m not going to speak to that. 

    But I think what you can take away from what this president has — trying to do, when Republicans have continued to block him, in promising to give Americans a little bit of breathing room, to make sure that Americans who have — borrows [borrowers] who have loans and — and are squeezed by those loans are not able to, you know, buy a home, start a family.

    The president was very attuned to that and very clear that he wanted to give them an opportunity — an opportunity to really, you know, be able to — to start that life that they wanted.  And so, he’s been trying to do that, even though he’s been blocked and — and Republicans have gotten in the way. 

    I think you can see over the past — certainly, the past six months, the president continuing to try to take actions to — to make sure he kept his commitment to Americans who, again, need a little bit of breathing room.

    So, I’m not going to speak to the legal matter, but I think this announcement today shows his commitment to public service workers, right?  I talked about firefighters, nurses.  I talked about police officers, who put so much on the line, who give so much for — for everybody, for folks who need their assistance and their help, and wanted to give them that opportunity to really be able to — to move on economically in what they want to accomplish for themselves and for their family.

    All right.  Anything else?

    Q    On the —

    Q    So —

    Q    Sorry.  Go ahead.

    Q    Sorry.

    Now going back to the funeral for a minute.  Did he speak with Speaker Emeritus Pelosi?  And also, she was not seen at the Italian American celebration, when she’s been front and center in the past.  Was she not invited?

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  I — I don’t have anything to share with you on that.  I didn’t talk to the president about that at all.  But what you saw — obviously, you saw the president and the former president, Pres- — President Obama, connect, have a moment together.  The president m- — very much looked forward to that.  I just don’t have anything on Nancy Pelosi.

    Q    Just —

    Q    I noticed he didn’t recognize her when he recognized the other two presidents at the funeral.

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  Well, he wanted it — I can say this.  He wanted it to be, you know — to — to be very focused on the family.  He wanted it to be, you know, brief and — and very poignant.  And that’s what his focus was yesterday on his remarks.

    Q    On the trip.  Obviously, this is a abbreviated agenda from, you know, the Ramstein summit —

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  Yeah.

    Q    — and other things.

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  Yeah.

    Q    But can you explain to us, what’s the reason that it’s so short?  Why do we have to get out of Germany at 4:00 p.m. tomorrow?  Is there a reason on the German chancellor’s schedule why we have to —

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  So, I mean —

    Q    Regardless of the press conference, there was also talk about maybe doing a Holocaust memorial situation.  What’s —

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  No, I totally understand what — totally — as you — let’s step back for a second. 

    The reason that the president had to postpone his trip was because Hurricane Milton was coming, and it was — it was forecast to be a historical hurricane, and the president wanted to be in the States to deal with the response and what was needed, certainly, by the impacted region, for what folks on the ground really needed.

    And so, that’s why we postponed the trip.  We said that we wanted to certainly get that back on the books.  We were able to do it — to your point, a truncated version, but it is a robust schedule.  And we were able to work with the Germans and to be able to get done what we can on this trip.

    I mean, the president has a busy schedule.  He does.  There’s a lot going on in the next couple days, couple weeks.

    Q    But he has to get back to the States for something in particular —

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  I mean, we’ll —

    Q    — that we don’t know about?

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  We’re certainly going to share with you what the — his — the next couple of days of his schedule is going to look like.  But he wanted to — and I said this yesterday in the briefing room.  He wanted to thank the chancellor for his partnership, for his leadership as well with Ukraine.  Outside of the U.S., U- — the U- — German is the second — have provided the second-most resources, assistance to Ukrainians.

    And so, he wanted to be, you know, thankful to him.  And so, that’s what you’re seeing on this trip.  He wanted to make this happen.  He asked his team to make this trip happen.

    And so, look, we have a busy schedule.  We got a lot going on in next couple of days, next couple of weeks.  And so, we tried to fit this in, and this is what we were able to do in working with the German government as well to make this happen.

    Q    Does the president, as the election hits its final two weeks, expect to get more aggressive in outreach and participation?  Is that maybe what you’re referencing, or what’s his thinking on that?

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  So, you know I can’t speak to political trips or any- —

    Q    But if —

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  But wa- —

    Q    — you could speak on his schedule.

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  Well, I — I’m just — want to get that out of there.  And so, look, the president is certainly looking at — looking forward to being out there and supporting the vice president.

    I just want to be super mindful.  But he will — you’ll see him — you’ll see him hit the road.  You’ll see him hit the road, for sure.

    That’s all I got. 

    All right.  Thanks, everybody.  Sorry my voice is a little hoarse.

    Q    Thanks, Karine.

    MS. JEAN-PIERRE:  Thanks, everybody.

    2:45 P.M. EDT

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Transcript – Press conference, Port of Burnie, Tasmania

    Source: Australian Ministers 1

    TASRAIL CEO, STEVEN DIETRICH: … I would like to begin the formalities with an acknowledgement of country. In recognition of the deep history and culture of this island of Lutruwita Tasmania, we would like to acknowledge the traditional owners of the land upon which we gather today, and pay our respects to elders past and present, for they hold the memories, the knowledge, and the culture and hopes of Aboriginal Tasmania.

    First up today, it is my pleasure – real pleasure to introduce a great supporter of TasRail. It’s not her first visit to the site, and I’m sure she can see a vast difference to when she was last here. The old shiploader was still here that had served us well for the last 50 years, and now with our new state of the art asset in place. So I’d like to introduce the Federal Minister for Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government, the Honourable Catherine King.

    [Applause]

    CATHERINE KING: Thanks very much, Steve, and it is terrific to be here in Burnie today. Can I too acknowledge the traditional custodians of the lands on which we gather, and pay my respects to elders past, present and emerging? To Premier Jeremy Rockliff, a great friend who’s been terrific to work with. And it’s lovely to see you back in the Infrastructure portfolio, and we’re doing lots of great work and great things in Tasmania together. Also to Senator Anne Urquhart, again, my friend and colleague, and to the mayor of Burnie, who’s also here with us today, and the many TasRail and TasPorts workers, staff who are here with us today as well.

    Look, this is a terrific day. As Steven mentioned, I was back here in 2022 with Anne. It was pouring with rain. I managed to score myself a pair of Tassie boots that have been to every single corner of the country, from the Tanami to all sorts of projects. So it’s terrific to be here again and to see the shiploader now, this – from 1968, it has served this community incredibly well.

    But this next generation now of a shiploader that really is part of the export story of Tasmania. This really is about not just the shiploader, it is about the bulk export minerals facility, which we’ll see work commencing on that – very happy as part of the $82 million to provide some extra money to ensure that that project is delivered as well. But really, this is about rail freight. It’s about- alongside this and the hubs further down, getting trucks off roads here in Tasmania, getting more freight onto rail, making sure you’ve got that connected freight routes out of our port into our export markets. It is about the economic story of Tasmania, and we’re very delighted to have been part of that story. And can I commend very much the work that has been done here, to come back in 2022, to wander on with our umbrellas under the shiploader, to understand the complexity of the engineering task, to be able to continue on a functioning port, to be able to develop and deliver this project really was quite a feat. And so I do want to say congratulations to that. And now the old shiploader, I think you’ve got most of the scrap metals now off site.

    So on behalf of the Albanese Labor Government, we’re really delighted to have funded the project- been part of the delivery of the project. But really, this is about the life of the next economic story for Tasmania. Very important to not just this state but the rest of the country, the work that you do here. I’m really delighted to be here today to, I think we call commission the ship loader formally. It is important to celebrate these occasions. I think when you’re working on these projects, it’s important to mark the occasion, important to celebrate that, and delighted to be here on behalf of the Albanese Labor Government, alongside Senator Urquhart, to do that today. Thank you for having me.

    [Applause]

    STEVEN DIETRICH: Thank you very much, Minister King. Really appreciate your kind words there. And we appreciate your support, and we also appreciate the Prime Minister’s support. The Prime Minister was here a couple of months ago and took the opportunity to climb right to the top. We thought he’d only stop halfway, but he wanted to go all the way to the top, so it was fantastic to provide him an opportunity and firsthand experience with our shiploader. So without further ado, please welcome the Premier of Tasmania, the Honourable Jeremy Rockliff.

    [Applause]

    JEREMY ROCKLIFF: Well, thanks very much, Steve, for the introduction. It’s fantastic to be here to celebrate new enabling infrastructure for the North West Coast of Tasmania, and more particularly, of course, our highly valuable mining industry in which I’ll come to in just a moment. Thanks Mayor Teeny for having us in your city. It’s great- always great to be in the powerhouse of the North West Coast, and indeed Tasmania, when it comes to the diverse region that we have. And we’re very lucky to have such diverse opportunities when it comes to our economic development here. Our forestry and mining industry, agriculture, aquaculture – we’ve got it all and we’re very, very fortunate, which is why it’s so important to have this investment in such key enabling infrastructure. 

    Catherine, thanks very much for you as Minister, being here alongside Anne as well, another very strong advocate for the North West Coast and Tasmania. It has been a pleasure to work alongside your government in recent times when it comes to putting on the agenda health infrastructure in Launceston. The Prime Minister and I were working together just last week when it comes to berth six at Macquarie Wharf – enabling, of course, a 30-year extension of Tasmania being the home to the Antarctic Gateway.

    But this is cause for celebration. We very much appreciate the significant investment that the Federal Government has made into what is enabling infrastructure. And along with it, acknowledging the key players and all players here today from TasRail, TasPorts, but also the Tasmanian Minerals and Energy Council here today represented by Vanessa and others. Mining is so crucial when it comes to our economy. It is a huge part of our GDP here in Tasmania. And to have this inter-generational infrastructure, if you like, much needed.

    I was infrastructure minister around 2018, and Steve and I were reflecting on that just yesterday, where we started the process going in terms of the need for a new shiploader. And here it is, with the work of TasRail and the cooperation with TasPorts. Thank you, Anthony Donald, for you being here as well, which we very much appreciate that cooperative arrangement between TasRail and TasPorts. But also, ensuring that we have not only new enabling infrastructure but infrastructure that is more efficient, infrastructure that is quicker, and infrastructure environmentally sound and also safer. And that’s why this key investment is welcomed by the State Government. Thank you again, Catherine. Thank you, TasRail, for what has been some journey. And if you’ll also indulge me as well, I’d like to commend our outgoing Member for Braddon, Gavin Pearce, for being on the journey as well alongside Anne Urquhart as well, which is fantastic.

    So, thank you for enabling me to be part of the event today. Very much appreciated. And all the very best to all those that work within such a critical sector and all those employees in TasRail, TasPorts and others that work so hard as we export out of Tasmania, which creates wealth and opportunity for Tasmanians and allows us to fund those essential services that Tasmanians all care about – health, housing, and addressing the challenges of the cost of living. Thank you very much.

    [Applause]

    STEVEN DIETRICH: Thank you very much, Premier. We’ve got a great relationship with government, and it’s your government’s support that’s been invaluable to see a very complex, sophisticated project like this delivered on time, on budget. So we really appreciate the support. Finally, I’d like to invite the Chairman of the TasRail board, Stephen Cantwell, to come up and say a few words. Thank you, Stephen.

    [Applause]

    STEPHEN CANTWELL: Thanks, Steve. Minister King, Premier Rockliff, Senator Urquhart, Mayor Brumby, other important guests. Let me say it’s really good to get to this point in the delivery of a project like this when you’re in the wheelhouse and have accountability for delivery. So thank you, Minister King, and thank you, Premier Rockliff, for supporting us and trusting us in the delivery of this asset, which is such an important component of the Tasmanian resources sector supply chain. Thank you also to our customers, many of whom are represented here today, for trusting us at TasRail day in, day out, with an important part and- by integrating us into and being an important part of your business.

    It’s also a great source of satisfaction and sort of worthy of comment that we were delighted at the end of a global tendering process to be in a position to award this contract to the local firm, COVA, and in doing that, opened the way for many other local businesses to participate in the delivery of this project. This asset is as good as it gets. It is state-of-the-art. By any measure, it is a world-leading piece of infrastructure. Going local and being drama-free in the delivery of a project such as this is a great demonstration of the depth of capability that we not only have here in Tasmania, but we have in the manufacturing sector in Australia. And it also reflects the value that can be had by keeping things local, so we particularly wanted to acknowledge the pride with which we’re able to say that we can do all of this locally.

    Now this project, by any measure, and nowadays, projects are described both in terms of their complexity and their – how complicated and how complex they are, and this is right up there. It wasn’t easy to deliver. There were many challenges along the way. And the extent to which TasRail has been able to deliver it within the agreed budget envelope and in the timeframe promised is largely a reflection of the quality of the people inside the organisation.

    As a mainlander, I’m continually amazed and inspired by the extent to which TasRail people and Tasmanians in general – I don’t know what it is, maybe it’s some sort of inferiority complex – but they always punch above their weight. And I think that’s held us in good stead in the delivery of this project. And so, I want to pay particular tribute to the quiet achievers who’ve just stepped up to the plate and got the job done. You see the product of their efforts here today. Thank you to you all indeed. This common use and asset you have created now will stand for decades for the benefit of all Tasmanians, and indeed all Australians, as we confirm to the world the credentials of our resources sector. Thank you.

    [Applause]

    STEVEN DIETRICH: Thank you, Chairman. Thank you for those words. And I would just like to acknowledge the Chairman and the whole TasRail board of directors for their support and trust in this project. I remember putting this Board paper up, one, first putting in the shovel ready justification to the Federal Government to enable a project, knowing that we had an old shiploader that needed to be replaced to provide certainty for decades to come through the North West and the mining industry. But putting a business case up, working it through with the Board and them putting their trust in myself, our Key Project Director Stephen Kerrison, and the entire Shiploader project team was really, really appreciated, and we delivered.

    So, this machine takes us to 2,000 tonnes per hour. the original machine probably operated at 1,000 tonnes per hour, so more efficient, more productive- the latest safety and environmental features. It also will facilitate future expansion of larger vessels. Most of our vessels at the moment are what you classify as Handymax type style vessels, and we’ll be able to accommodate Panamax vessels into the future. It’s a great asset built by Tasmanians. Can you believe an asset like this was built in Tasmania by Tasmanians?

    CATHERINE KING: Absolutely. 

    STEVEN DIETRICH: It’s fantastic. The Haywoods engineering, the engineering company at Somerset, the SAGE Automation people, IF&S – the technology that’s gone into this unit is just amazing. I won’t lie, there was a couple of nervous moments when we put the first tonne of dirt on and there was a couple of teething problems, and to be expected, but what a wonderful asset. We’ve got a couple of things to work through. COVA Haywood’s have been a fantastic contractor and we’ve got an asset here that will deliver for decades to come, enabling the industry a fully integrated supply chain that will take industry forward.

    And once we expand the bulk minerals bulk minerals export facility, currently we can hold 130,000 tonnes and we’ll be able to go to 150,000, enabling more mines to be able to grow in Tasmania and get their product out efficiently.

    So, I’m getting the wind up now, I’m conscious of time. Now, we do have some gifts for our political visitors which Kirsten and Samantha, I think they’re almost sure that we give those once the medias had some opportunity for questions. And we’re going to go and do some photography – we’re allowed to go for a walk out onto the berth and right up to the shiploader to platform one and have a look at the cabin, and we’d like to get a group photo up at platform one.

    So, thank you again. Really appreciate you coming here today and investing the time. It’s a momentous occasion for us, but it’s a momentous occasion for all Tasmanians and it’s an asset all Tasmanian’s can be proud of. Thank you very much.

    UNIDENTIFIED SPEAKER: Thank you.

    [Applause]

    CATHERINE KING: Questions if you want, but over here with Anne.

    JOURNALIST: I guess the last [indistinct] lasted 50 years. Do you know how long this one’s meant to last?

    CATHERINE KING: Well, let’s hope- it certainly is expected to last another 50 years. What an extraordinary investment. A 1968 facility now being replaced by a state-of-the-art shiploader which is much more efficient, will be able to load much more quickly. And also, it’s much quieter which is terrific, obviously, for the people of the Burnie, and we’ve obviously got ships often loading late at night.

    But, as I said, it’s not just about the shiploader. We’re about to see the project commence for the bulk mineral export facility. So, this old shed, again it is pre-1960s, to be replaced with the, again, a state of the art export facility here. But of course, we’ve also got the hub, which is a rail hub, an [indistinct] intermodal hub where we can also transport goods from there, which is really about getting more of our commodities, more of our minerals onto rail so we’re not seeing so many trucks onto the roads here.

    So this is a great freight story, but it’s also a great story for the economy here. I’m so delighted to hear just how many local companies have been involved in building this project – built by Tasmanians, for Tasmanians – really showing the complex engineering capability of the companies here in this community, and it’s something we should be incredibly proud of.

    JOURNALIST: Why is it important that we do keep jobs within the state?

    CATHERINE KING: Well, of course, because Tasmania is important not just to the state but to the economy of the whole country. You produce some beautiful products from here in your agriculture and aquaculture sector that are showcases to the rest of the world. Your minerals are exported all over the world as well. You’ve got an incredibly important economy here. I love coming down here. I love hearing the innovation and the – all of the new things people are doing. And really what this common user infrastructure, this shiploader here is doing, is providing that opportunity to continue to provide those mineral exports to the world.

    JOURNALIST: Apologies if this is, you know, common knowledge, but I guess I was reading the release from your office a couple- an old one, and it was saying the operational- it was meant to be operational by mid-2023. Why was there a delay?

    CATHERINE KING: Well, these are complex projects to build. As you know, trying to make sure that we’ve- a, we’ve got supply chain issues, but also trying to make sure the port continues to be operational so that there’s limited downtime to continue to be able to do that. So it’s complex to build, and so that’s really what happens with these facilities. So it started in May 2022 and here we are in 2024, finally commissioned, operational, loading ships today.

    Any other questions? Yeah.

    JOURNALIST: Do you agree with Lidia Thorpe’s actions yesterday? Is she exercising free speech?

    CATHERINE KING: Look, I think it was disappointing to see what happened yesterday. We were all there. You know, it’s important that, regardless of your views about a whole range of issues, to show respect to our institutions and our traditions. And I do think it was disappointing yesterday, but it was a very small, small part of what has been a really successful visit by Their Majesties, the King and the Queen, over the last couple of days. And I know that they were really delighted to be received and warmly welcomed by the Australian people.

    JOURNALIST: Sprit of Tasmania are part of the Federal and National Highway 1 essentially. From a Federal perspective, what is your view then of the debacle that’s been engulfing Tasmania in recent months?

    CATHERINE KING: Well look, really that’s a matter for the Tasmanian Government, and I don’t think it’s appropriate for me to comment there. TasPorts comes under the State Government, and I’m sure Premier Rockliff will be happy to answer questions there. We’re obviously, as part of the Federal Government, really proud to partner with the Tasmanian Government to deliver infrastructure such as the shiploader that you’re seeing here today.

    JOURNALIST: How can the Federal Government have confidence Tasmania will deliver projects on time and on budget, when that’s not what’s happened here?

    CATHERINE KING: Well, we’ve seen, with the shiploader, the incredible, great work that TasRail and TasPorts have done together to deliver this project. Our expectation of all our co delivery partners, whether it’s here in Tasmania or it’s on the mainland, is that they do work very closely with my department about the delivery of those. And this project, where we’ve been funding it, is been an important- it’s important to see that delivered and important that all levels of government, particularly when we’re working on mega projects, projects that are big and complex, that we do those gateway reviews, that we do keep an eye on the progress of those. That’s all?

    JOURNALIST: Just one more, sorry, if you [indistinct]…

    CATHERINE KING: Yes, of course.

    JOURNALIST: Should Lidia Thorpe resign from the Senate given she’s pledged allegiance to the King?

    CATHERINE KING: Can I just say really clearly, I think that what happened yesterday was disappointing and I think that it shouldn’t overshadow what has been a fantastic visit by Their Majesties. I think we saw them warmly welcomed all across the places that they visited, other than the alpaca sneezing on them – but I’m sure that will be memorable as well. I understand, from alpaca’s that’s a sign of affection. So really, I don’t think that that should overshadow it, and, really, what Lidia does is a matter for her.

    MIL OSI News –

  • MIL-OSI China: Documentary gives clout to Chinese filmmakers

    Source: China State Council Information Office 3

    Fang Li with Lisbon Maru survivor Dennis Morley during an interview. Morley, the last survivor in the U.K., died in 2021 at age 101. [Image courtesy of Laurel Films]

    Since early September, filmmaker Fang Li has traveled to many cities to host nearly 100 promotional events for one of his most challenging works, The Sinking of the Lisbon Maru.

    The documentary, which has consumed eight years and 80 million yuan ($11.2 million), chronicles his investigations into a titular incident during World War II — a Japanese ship that carried 1,816 British prisoners of war from Hong Kong to Japan in October 1942.

    Tragically, the cargo liner was torpedoed by the USS Grouper submarine. Japanese forces confined the POWs and abandoned them to their fate, even assigning a team of soldiers to shoot any prisoners attempting to escape after the main troops evacuated. Some of the POWs managed to escape, with 384 British prisoners rescued by over 200 Chinese fishermen in the sea near Dongji Island in Zhoushan, East China’s Zhejiang province. Most survivors were recaptured by Japanese troops the next day, but three were hidden by villagers.

    Fang and his team did their best to find core parties and descendants in the United Kingdom, United States, Japan and China, getting close to the truth about the tragic sinking.

    Narrated in a restrained and objective perspective with profound materials, the documentary has won high acclaim, obtaining 9.3 out of 10 points on the popular review aggregator Douban, making it the highest-rated documentary on the platform this year.

    Currently, the film, which debuted domestically on Sept 6, has grossed over 43 million yuan at the box office, far exceeding the producers’ original estimation.

    Its high acclaim and box-office success have drawn attention from industry insiders and critics, especially after it was selected as China’s submission in a bid for the Oscars’ Best International Feature Film category in late September.

    During a recent symposium held in Beijing, Xie Li, a Party committee member of the China Federation of Literary and Art Circles, listed the popularity of The Sinking of the Lisbon Maru as the latest example showcasing the rise of Chinese documentaries. Previous excellent works include Snow Leopards and Friends, Remembering 1950 and Like the Dyer’s Hand, added Xie.

    Xie expressed hope that Chinese filmmakers will produce more quality documentaries that can resonate with international audiences.

    Jiao Hongfen, chairman of the China Film Producers’ Association, said that The Sinking of the Lisbon Maru has brought pride to domestic filmmakers and will encourage more excellent documentaries to be screened in theaters.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI China: Dance drama on overseas Chinese business pioneer premieres in capital

    Source: China State Council Information Office 3

    Half of the Sea, a Chinese dance drama, centering on the life story of Tan Kah Kee, a patriotic overseas Chinese business pioneer and philanthropist, premiered in Beijing on Sunday.

    The production uses dance as an artistic medium to showcase his spirit of perseverance, patriotism, and dedication to education, paying tribute to the patriotic overseas Chinese who remained devoted to his homeland despite adversity.

    Tan Kah Kee was born in Jimei village in Tong An district, Fujian province, on Oct 21, 1874. At age 16, he arrived in Singapore and joined his father in the family’s rice trading business as an apprentice and bookkeeper. Tan proved himself to be an exceptional worker, and by 1892, he was put in charge of Chop Soon Ann company after his uncle fell ill and retired. In 1893, Tan returned to his home village Jimei, and set about establishing a business of his own.

    The eminent entrepreneur donated money, and directed efforts to improve the lives of people in Chinese mainland through the turbulent wartime. In Singapore, he helped to establish five primary and secondary Chinese schools. In 1918, he established a normal school to train teachers in Fujian. When he founded Xiamen University in 1921, he ensured that the department of education had the best possible faculty. In Singapore, for a decade he campaigned for a Nanyang Chinese Normal School to train teachers for Chinese schools and it was established in 1941.

    His love for China is reflected in his own memoirs, Nanqiao Huiyilu, which has been described as undoubtedly one of the best documented autobiographies ever written by an overseas Chinese in Southeast Asia.

    On stage, the dancers’ fluid and dynamic movements, combined with artistic elements like harbors, fishing boats, and villages, create a vivid depiction of Minnan (southern Fujian) and Southeast Asian scenery. The stage incorporates 16 suspended panels that reflect ever-changing scenes — from the glow of the hometown sunset to minimalist paper-folded fishing boats and a 10-meter-long rotating conference table. The modern stage design creates an immersive viewing experience, transporting the audience to a historical period filled with dramatic changes.

    In terms of choreography, the dance drama seamlessly blends modern dance with traditional Minnan elements and the style of the early 20th century. It showcases the robust, rhythmic movements typical of Minnan dance while incorporating the fluidity and versatility of modern dance.

    Director Lin Chen explained that the title, Half of the Sea, represents both the physical separation of the overseas Chinese from their homeland and their deep emotional connection and strong sense of national identity.

    Following its Beijing debut, Half of the Sea will embark on a nationwide tour.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Time to shut down failed Youth Justice Residences

    Source: Green Party

    The Green Party is calling for Youth Justice Residences to close, following a protest in which a group of young people spent the night on the roof of an Oranga Tamariki justice facility.

    “Rangatahi deserve more than child prisons and military bootcamps. They deserve opportunities,” says the Green Party Spokesperson for Youth, Tamatha Paul.

    “Instead of punching down on our most vulnerable, we should be providing our rangatahi with meaningful life opportunities, healthcare that addresses their needs, but most importantly, the love and care that they have never, ever had in their short lives. 

    “The Greens are calling for an end to Youth Justice Residences and military-style bootcamps. Our young people deserve a system which sets them up to rebuild their lives, not to be confined to prisons which perpetuate trauma, isolation and violence

    “There are young people out there who cannot imagine a life for themselves outside of prison walls, and that is a failure of successive governments, and a moral failure of our society.

    “I have visited these youth justice residences and can confirm that they are child prisons. They are filled with the most vulnerable rangatahi in our country who have come from extreme levels of poverty and family abuse.

    “What’s happened at Korowai Manaaki is not a unique situation. Years of research and experience shows that youth justice residences are re-traumatising and ineffective. 

    “When the Office of the Children’s Commissioner reported on Korowai Manaaki recently, they revealed inappropriate and deeply troubling practices within the residences. Unfortunately, this culture can be seen across the youth justice space in Aotearoa and is a product of politicians who put winning votes above the real needs of children.

    “The young people leaving these residences do not feel empowered or able to turn their lives around which leads to a lifetime of incarceration and a complete loss of human potential. It’s time to close them down.” says Tamatha Paul.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Auction for Fong Ma Po New Year Fair stalls at Lam Tsuen in Tai Po to be held on November 4

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

         â€‹The Food and Environmental Hygiene Department (FEHD) announced today (October 22) that stalls at the 2025 Fong Ma Po (FMP) New Year Fair at Lam Tsuen in Tai Po will be put up for open auction on November 4 (Monday).

         â€‹A spokesman for the FEHD said the annual FMP New Year Fair will be held for 15 consecutive days from January 29 to February 12, 2025. A total of 22 dry goods stalls and six wet goods stalls will be put up for auction, with upset prices of $780 and $770 respectively. ​

         The auction will be held at the Assembly Hall, 2/F, Lai Chi Kok Government Offices, 19 Lai Wan Road, Lai Chi Kok, Kowloon, on November 4 (Monday), from 2pm until completion of the auction.

         Bidders for FMP New Year Fair stalls must be at least 18 years old and ordinarily reside in Hong Kong. Anyone can bid for more than one stall. A bidder must pay the bid price and register in person with his or her own name as the licensee of the stall immediately after successfully bidding for a stall. The bidder is also required to sign at once a licence agreement with the FEHD, or he/she will forfeit the rights to operate the stall.

         â€‹The FMP New Year Fair site will be made available to the licensees three days in advance of the fair (January 26 to 28, 2025) for the setting up of stalls. In the event of any unforeseeable incident that will cause shortening of the whole licence period (including the duration for setting up stalls and the business period of the fair), the Government has the right to postpone the commencement date and shorten the duration of the period. The bidding price (licence fee) paid will be refunded to the successful bidder on a pro-rata basis without interest.

         The FEHD reminded licensees that the stalls are solely for the purpose of selling and promoting the sale of the permitted commodities, and no other activities are allowed in the licensed area. If the FEHD considers that any activity conducted by the licensee to publicise, promote, display, show, sell or gift any permitted commodities in the venue is unlawful, contrary to the interest of national security, immoral or incompatible with the object of the FMP New Year Fair, the FEHD is entitled to direct the licensee to stop conducting such activities, and the licensee must immediately comply with the direction.

         Stall licensees should not destroy, damage or abandon any unsold commodities at or in the vicinity of the stall. They must completely remove the stall structure and all paraphernalia, together with all refuse, debris and unsold commodities (whether damaged or otherwise) from the licensed area before 6pm on February 12, 2025.

         According to the licence agreement, except inside designated stalls, licensees shall not keep, store or use any compressed helium cylinders in the licenced area. Whereas licensees of the designated stalls may keep, store or use helium cylinders in the licenced area, the quantity of helium should be such that a licence is not required pursuant to the Dangerous Goods (Application and Exemption) Regulation 2012 (Cap. 295E), i.e. no more than 150 litres (water capacity) of compressed helium. Sales of floating LED glowing balloons and aquarium fish by stall licensees are prohibited at the FMP Fair.

         In addition, as stated in the licence agreement, the height of dry goods stalls must not exceed 3 metres from ground level. The height of wet goods stalls must not exceed 4.5m from ground level. For wet goods stalls with a height of more than 3m from ground level, the licensee must, at his own costs, provide the FEHD with the original certificate issued by an authorised person, a registered structural engineer, or a competent person under the Construction Sites (Safety) Regulations (Cap. 59I) to certify the structural safety of the structure in the licensed area before the Fair is opened to the public. The licensee must also affix a copy of the aforesaid certificate on the structure of the stall.

         â€‹Successful bidders shall comply with all the stipulations and provisions as set out in the licence agreement. Otherwise, the FEHD is entitled to terminate the agreement and the licensee shall immediately vacate the stall.

         â€‹Details of the 2025 FMP New Year Fair, such as the public notice, the location and layout of the fair venue, commodities allowed for sale at the fair stalls, open auction arrangements and related rules, as well as a sample of the licence agreement, are available on the FEHD website (www.fehd.gov.hk). For enquiries, please call the FEHD’s Tai Po District Environmental Hygiene Office at 3183 9162 or 2657 1137.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Murphy, Young Urge President Biden To Protect Undersea Cables From China, Russia

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Connecticut – Chris Murphy

    October 21, 2024

    WASHINGTON—U.S. Senators Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.), members of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, on Monday led 6 of their Senate colleagues in sending a bipartisan letter to President Biden expressing concerns about the security of the global network of undersea communications and energy cables upon which American workers and businesses rely.
    More than 95% of international internet traffic travels via these undersea cables, resulting in trillions of dollars in financial transactions each day. The locations of these cables are often openly published to prevent accidental damage.
    As American companies look to expand and invest in this critical infrastructure, it is imperative that the United States has a complete understanding of existing vulnerabilities, especially those that impact our economic and national security.
    “America’s adversaries have been developing their capabilities to attack or disrupt critical undersea infrastructure. There is a long tradition, dating back well over a century, of belligerents attacking their opponents’ underwater communications lines in the first phase of a conflict,” the senators wrote. “Given these threats and challenges, it is imperative that the United States undertake a review of existing vulnerabilities to global undersea cable infrastructure, including the threat of sabotage by Russia as well as the growing role of the People’s Republic of China in cable laying and repair. If we are truly to deepen vital commercial and security relationships with willing partners and allies, this must be a national priority.”
    U.S. Senators Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska), and Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) also signed the letter.
    Full text of the letter is available HERE and below:
    Dear Mr. President: 
    We write to you to express our concern about the security of global undersea communications and energy cables, especially those that impact America’s economic and national security and that of our allies and partners. As you are well aware, more than 95% of international internet traffic travels via undersea cables, including trillions of dollars in financial transactions each day. Moreover, the exact locations of most of these cables are openly published in order to reduce the likelihood of accidental damage from ships’ anchors or fishing activities. Internet and telecommunications providers, including American firms, intend to invest billions of dollars in expanding the global network of undersea communications cables. Additionally, energy transmission cables are proliferating as governments look to new sources of electricity generation. 
    America’s adversaries have been developing their capabilities to attack or disrupt critical undersea infrastructure. There is a long tradition, dating back well over a century, of belligerents attacking their opponents’ underwater communications lines in the first phase of a conflict. For example, in both World Wars, Britain’s first naval actions were to cut the telegraph cables connecting Germany to the Americas, and in 1918 a German U-boat severed lines connecting New York to both Nova Scotia and Panama. In addition to this kind of overt, kinetic attack, the nature of undersea infrastructure increases the feasibility of gray zone actions with plausible deniability. It is difficult to distinguish between an accident and a deliberate action on the seabed, and more difficult still to confirm who conducted such an action. On top of this, because this infrastructure is privately owned by commercial enterprises, repairs are the responsibility of these private companies, which are likely not prepared to maintain them under wartime conditions and are likely to seek the most cost-effective repair and maintenance options—even if that option is owned or operated by a foreign adversary or strategic competitor. 
    Given these threats and challenges, it is imperative that the United States undertake a review of existing vulnerabilities to global undersea cable infrastructure, including the threat of sabotage by Russia as well as the growing role of the People’s Republic of China in cable laying and repair. If we are truly to deepen vital commercial and security relationships with willing partners and allies, this must be a national priority. We respectfully request that you provide responses to the following questions and direct senior administration officials to brief Members of Congress, including members of relevant committees of jurisdiction, on your plans and the resources and authorities needed to carry them out.
    What is your Administration’s overall strategy to guarantee the security of America’s undersea infrastructure and to promote the security of that of our allies and partners? 
    The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020 established the Cable Security Fleet (CSF). If authorized and sufficiently funded, what would be your assessment of the ideal size of the U.S.-flagged and -operated cable laying and repair vessel fleet to ensure sufficient cable repair capacity during a conflict or national emergency? How can the United States work with trusted allies and partners for additional capacity to support the expansion and repair of trusted undersea cable networks? 
    What is the Administration’s strategy to encourage other nations to choose trusted suppliers in their selection of undersea cable manufacturers, particularly in any nation of concern or which may be vulnerable to coercion or covert action by America’s adversaries? 
    How is the Administration working with the private sector to ensure that commercial enterprises’ investments in undersea cables align with U.S. national security priorities? 
    How do you intend to protect the physical security of undersea cables in the open ocean, including through any interpretation of customary international law? 
    How is the Administration working multilaterally to collectively enhance security and monitor potential threats to undersea infrastructure, including through NATO, the Quad, and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity? 
    Thank you for your prompt attention to this request. As Congress works to continue its oversight of national security, it is vital that we understand the current state of the information backbone of our economy and efforts to protect it. 
    Sincerely, 

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Translation: 16/10/2024 In Wrocław about 25 years of Poland at OTAN

    MIL ASI Translation. Region: Polish/Europe –

    Fuente: Gobierno de Polonia en poleco.

    The event was organized by the Jerzy Szmajdziński Foundation and the Military Academy of Land Forces. Among those invited to discuss the Alliance were, among others, former President of the Republic of Poland Aleksander Kwaśniewski – Chairman of the Council of the J. Szmajdziński Foundation, Ambajador Dr. Piotr Ogrodziński – President of the Board of the Confederation of Ambassadors of the Republic of Poland and the Rector of the Military Academy of Land Forces, Lieutenant General Dr. Marek Tomaszycki. Among the invited guests were also representatives of military units, universities and institutions, as well as local government authorities, as well as students of uniformed classes. During the meeting, for the efforts made for Poland’s accession to NATO, former President of the Republic of Poland Aleksander Kwaśniewski received a commemorative plaque from the Undersecretary of State in the Ministry of National Defense Stanisław Wziątek. – At that time, various concepts of ensuring Poland’s security clashed. Fortunately, the view of the need to join the North Atlantic Alliance prevailed (…) With hindsight, we can all see that the decisions taken at that time were not only effective, but above all the right ones – Aleksander Kwaśniewski emphasized in his speech, emphasizing the important role of the Alliance. Deputy Minister S. Wziątek, recalling the issues of negotiations at various levels of state authority, expressed pride in the fact that it was possible to reach an agreement at that time. – We would not be so strong if we had not managed to rise above the divisions. If it were not for the common concern of the then government, who unanimously chose the Polish raison d’état as the highest goal – said the deputy minister. The deputy head of the Ministry of National Defense also emphasized the important role of the ongoing modernization of the Polish army. – We are not strong to go to war, but so that no one attacks us. This is what deterrence policy is all about. During the meeting, conference participants answered questions about, among other things, the changes that have taken place in the 25 years since Poland joined the structures of the North Atlantic Alliance, the course of accession negotiations, cooperation with other countries for the sake of joining NATO and the prospects for further development of NATO structures. ***On July 25, 12 March 1999, we opened a new chapter in the history of Polish security. The status of a member of the North Atlantic Alliance remains one of the main pillars of Polish and European security policy. Article 5 of the Washington Treaty is a guarantee of our security, as well as the foundation of the Alliance’s deterrence force. For soldiers of the Polish Armed Forces, the 25 years of Poland’s presence in NATO have been a time of intensive service, dynamic development and building a strong position in NATO.

    MILES AXIS

    EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and/or sentence structure not be perfect.

    MIL Translation OSI