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Category: Global

  • MIL-OSI Global: What’s the shape of the universe? Mathematicians use topology to study the shape of the world and everything in it

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By John Etnyre, Professor of Mathematics, Georgia Institute of Technology

    You can describe the shape you live on in multiple dimensions. vkulieva/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    When you look at your surrounding environment, it might seem like you’re living on a flat plane. After all, this is why you can navigate a new city using a map: a flat piece of paper that represents all the places around you. This is likely why some people in the past believed the earth to be flat. But most people now know that is far from the truth.

    You live on the surface of a giant sphere, like a beach ball the size of the Earth with a few bumps added. The surface of the sphere and the plane are two possible 2D spaces, meaning you can walk in two directions: north and south or east and west.

    What other possible spaces might you be living on? That is, what other spaces around you are 2D? For example, the surface of a giant doughnut is another 2D space.

    Through a field called geometric topology, mathematicians like me study all possible spaces in all dimensions. Whether trying to design secure sensor networks, mine data or use origami to deploy satellites, the underlying language and ideas are likely to be that of topology.

    The shape of the universe

    When you look around the universe you live in, it looks like a 3D space, just like the surface of the Earth looks like a 2D space. However, just like the Earth, if you were to look at the universe as a whole, it could be a more complicated space, like a giant 3D version of the 2D beach ball surface or something even more exotic than that.

    A doughnut, also called a torus, is a shape that you can move across in two directions, just like the surface of the Earth.
    YassineMrabet via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-NC-SA

    While you don’t need topology to determine that you are living on something like a giant beach ball, knowing all the possible 2D spaces can be useful. Over a century ago, mathematicians figured out all the possible 2D spaces and many of their properties.

    In the past several decades, mathematicians have learned a lot about all of the possible 3D spaces. While we do not have a complete understanding like we do for 2D spaces, we do know a lot. With this knowledge, physicists and astronomers can try to determine what 3D space people actually live in.

    While the answer is not completely known, there are many intriguing and surprising possibilities. The options become even more complicated if you consider time as a dimension.

    To see how this might work, note that to describe the location of something in space – say a comet – you need four numbers: three to describe its position and one to describe the time it is in that position. These four numbers are what make up a 4D space.

    Now, you can consider what 4D spaces are possible and in which of those spaces do you live.

    Topology in higher dimensions

    At this point, it may seem like there is no reason to consider spaces that have dimensions larger than four, since that is the highest imaginable dimension that might describe our universe. But a branch of physics called string theory suggests that the universe has many more dimensions than four.

    There are also practical applications of thinking about higher dimensional spaces, such as robot motion planning. Suppose you are trying to understand the motion of three robots moving around a factory floor in a warehouse. You can put a grid on the floor and describe the position of each robot by their x and y coordinates on the grid. Since each of the three robots requires two coordinates, you will need six numbers to describe all of the possible positions of the robots. You can interpret the possible positions of the robots as a 6D space.

    As the number of robots increases, the dimension of the space increases. Factoring in other useful information, such as the locations of obstacles, makes the space even more complicated. In order to study this problem, you need to study high-dimensional spaces.

    There are countless other scientific problems where high-dimensional spaces appear, from modeling the motion of planets and spacecraft to trying to understand the “shape” of large datasets.

    Tied up in knots

    Another type of problem topologists study is how one space can sit inside another.

    For example, if you hold a knotted loop of string, then we have a 1D space (the loop of string) inside a 3D space (your room). Such loops are called mathematical knots.

    The study of knots first grew out of physics but has become a central area of topology. They are essential to how scientists understand 3D and 4D spaces and have a delightful and subtle structure that researchers are still trying to understand.

    Knots are examples of spaces that sit inside other spaces.
    Jkasd/Wikimedia Commons

    In addition, knots have many applications, ranging from string theory in physics to DNA recombination in biology to chirality in chemistry.

    What shape do you live on?

    Geometric topology is a beautiful and complex subject, and there are still countless exciting questions to answer about spaces.

    For example, the smooth 4D Poincaré conjecture asks what the “simplest” closed 4D space is, and the slice-ribbon conjecture aims to understand how knots in 3D spaces relate to surfaces in 4D spaces.

    Topology is currently useful in science and engineering. Unraveling more mysteries of spaces in all dimensions will be invaluable to understanding the world in which we live and solving real-world problems.

    John Etnyre receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the Elaine M. Hubbard Distinguished Faculty Award

    – ref. What’s the shape of the universe? Mathematicians use topology to study the shape of the world and everything in it – https://theconversation.com/whats-the-shape-of-the-universe-mathematicians-use-topology-to-study-the-shape-of-the-world-and-everything-in-it-235635

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: AIs flunk language test that takes grammar out of the equation

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Rutvik Desai, Professor of Psychology, University of South Carolina

    AIs can sound good without having a clue about what they’re saying. Carol Yepes/Moment via Getty Images

    Generative AI systems like large language models and text-to-image generators can pass rigorous exams that are required of anyone seeking to become a doctor or a lawyer. They can perform better than most people in Mathematical Olympiads. They can write halfway decent poetry, generate aesthetically pleasing paintings and compose original music.

    These remarkable capabilities may make it seem like generative artificial intelligence systems are poised to take over human jobs and have a major impact on almost all aspects of society. Yet while the quality of their output sometimes rivals work done by humans, they are also prone to confidently churning out factually incorrect information. Skeptics have also called into question their ability to reason.

    Large language models have been built to mimic human language and thinking, but they are far from human. From infancy, human beings learn through countless sensory experiences and interactions with the world around them. Large language models do not learn as humans do – they are instead trained on vast troves of data, most of which is drawn from the internet.

    The capabilities of these models are very impressive, and there are AI agents that can attend meetings for you, shop for you or handle insurance claims. But before handing over the keys to a large language model on any important task, it is important to assess how their understanding of the world compares to that of humans.

    I’m a researcher who studies language and meaning. My research group developed a novel benchmark that can help people understand the limitations of large language models in understanding meaning.

    Making sense of simple word combinations

    So what “makes sense” to large language models? Our test involves judging the meaningfulness of two-word noun-noun phrases. For most people who speak fluent English, noun-noun word pairs like “beach ball” and “apple cake” are meaningful, but “ball beach” and “cake apple” have no commonly understood meaning. The reasons for this have nothing to do with grammar. These are phrases that people have come to learn and commonly accept as meaningful, by speaking and interacting with one another over time.

    We wanted to see if a large language model had the same sense of meaning of word combinations, so we built a test that measured this ability, using noun-noun pairs for which grammar rules would be useless in determining whether a phrase had recognizable meaning. For example, an adjective-noun pair such as “red ball” is meaningful, while reversing it, “ball red,” renders a meaningless word combination.

    The benchmark does not ask the large language model what the words mean. Rather, it tests the large language model’s ability to glean meaning from word pairs, without relying on the crutch of simple grammatical logic. The test does not evaluate an objective right answer per se, but judges whether large language models have a similar sense of meaningfulness as people.

    We used a collection of 1,789 noun-noun pairs that had been previously evaluated by human raters on a scale of 1, does not make sense at all, to 5, makes complete sense. We eliminated pairs with intermediate ratings so that there would be a clear separation between pairs with high and low levels of meaningfulness.

    Large language models get that ‘beach ball’ means something, but they aren’t so clear on the concept that ‘ball beach’ doesn’t.
    PhotoStock-Israel/Moment via Getty Images

    We then asked state-of-the-art large language models to rate these word pairs in the same way that the human participants from the previous study had been asked to rate them, using identical instructions. The large language models performed poorly. For example, “cake apple” was rated as having low meaningfulness by humans, with an average rating of around 1 on scale of 0 to 4. But all large language models rated it as more meaningful than 95% of humans would do, rating it between 2 and 4. The difference wasn’t as wide for meaningful phrases such as “dog sled,” though there were cases of a large language model giving such phrases lower ratings than 95% of humans as well.

    To aid the large language models, we added more examples to the instructions to see if they would benefit from more context on what is considered a highly meaningful versus a not meaningful word pair. While their performance improved slightly, it was still far poorer than that of humans. To make the task easier still, we asked the large language models to make a binary judgment – say yes or no to whether the phrase makes sense – instead of rating the level of meaningfulness on a scale of 0 to 4. Here, the performance improved, with GPT-4 and Claude 3 Opus performing better than others – but they were still well below human performance.

    Creative to a fault

    The results suggest that large language models do not have the same sense-making capabilities as human beings. It is worth noting that our test relies on a subjective task, where the gold standard is ratings given by people. There is no objectively right answer, unlike typical large language model evaluation benchmarks involving reasoning, planning or code generation.

    The low performance was largely driven by the fact that large language models tended to overestimate the degree to which a noun-noun pair qualified as meaningful. They made sense of things that should not make much sense. In a manner of speaking, the models were being too creative. One possible explanation is that the low-meaningfulness word pairs could make sense in some context. A beach covered with balls could be called a “ball beach.” But there is no common usage of this noun-noun combination among English speakers.

    If large language models are to partially or completely replace humans in some tasks, they’ll need to be further developed so that they can get better at making sense of the world, in closer alignment with the ways that humans do. When things are unclear, confusing or just plain nonsense – whether due to a mistake or a malicious attack – it’s important for the models to flag that instead of creatively trying to make sense of almost everything.

    If an AI agent automatically responding to emails gets a message intended for another user in error, an appropriate response may be, “Sorry, this does not make sense,” rather than a creative interpretation. If someone in a meeting made incomprehensible remarks, we want an agent that attended the meeting to say the comments did not make sense. The agent should say, “This seems to be talking about a different insurance claim” rather than just “claim denied” if details of a claim don’t make sense.

    In other words, it’s more important for an AI agent to have a similar sense of meaning and behave like a human would when uncertain, rather than always providing creative interpretations.

    Rutvik Desai receives funding from NIH/NIDCD.

    – ref. AIs flunk language test that takes grammar out of the equation – https://theconversation.com/ais-flunk-language-test-that-takes-grammar-out-of-the-equation-247177

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How tourism and fish farming can thrive together

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mausam Budhathoki, Postdoctoral Researcher, Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling

    The tourism and aquaculture sectors have been working together in Oban, on Scotland’s west coast. Rab Woods/Shutterstock

    In many coastal regions, tourism and fish farms are vital industries that drive economic growth. Yet, they often compete for space, raising concerns about how to balance these two sectors without compromising the environment or local livelihoods.

    In Oban, on the west coast of Scotland, the twin industries of tourism and aquaculture are learning to coexist – and even thrive together. Coastal communities can face economic challenges due to the seasonal nature of tourism as well as often limited job options. Their reliance on coastal resources, which are increasingly affected by environmental changes, can heighten the difficulties.

    Aquaculture in high-income countries hasn’t always had the best reputation. Public perception can be negative due to concerns about the environmental impact and resource use. But when it’s practised sustainably, aquaculture can in fact help meet global food demands and contribute to the UN’s sustainable development goals, a blueprint for economic growth that’s equitable and environmentally aware.

    Our recent study explored how tourists perceive aquaculture during their holiday and whether exposure to fish farms influences their willingness to consume locally farmed seafood. The results suggest that integrating aquaculture and tourism can increase awareness of sustainable seafood and create economic opportunities.

    Oban’s coastline is home to salmon farms, shellfish cultivation, including mussels and oysters, and new seaweed farms. All of these sit in waters popular for marine tours. The tours attract visitors eager to learn more about local wildlife and history. But, aquaculture often faces criticism due to its impact on the landscape and marine ecosystems.

    This tension is not unique to Oban. Across Europe, aquaculture growth has stagnated despite its potential to improve food security and sustainability. Regulatory challenges and conflicts over space are significant hurdles. This is especially true in coastal communities where the acceptance and support of the community – known as a “social licence to operate” – is crucial.

    But our study offers a promising solution: aquaculture–tourism integration. By showcasing aquaculture as part of the tourism experience, Oban can educate visitors, encourage greater acceptance of sustainable farming practices and boost the local economy.

    What tourists think about aquaculture

    We surveyed 200 tourists on marine tours in Oban to understand how they view aquaculture. The responses revealed three main types of tourists. These are those with multiple motivations (visitors drawn by nature, socialising and learning); “relaxers” (tourists seeking rest and relaxation, often with little previous knowledge of aquaculture); and outgoing nature enthusiasts (active travellers who value wildlife and environmental conservation).

    Despite their different motivations, most tourists responded positively to seeing fish farms during their tours. The most notable shift was among the “relaxers”, who were more interested in eating locally farmed seafood after learning about sustainable farming practices. This shows how education and direct experience can reshape the way seafood production is perceived.

    Aquaculture sites are often viewed as eyesores, but our findings show that when framed as part of local culture, they can actually enrich the tourist experience. Tourists appreciated learning about sustainable seafood production as the boats approached floating net cages and began to view aquaculture as a positive part of the community.

    Marine tours could include stops at aquaculture sites to let visitors see the operation, hear from farmers and even sample the products. This would present an opportunity to engage tourists and encourage a connection with the industry – potentially building trust with the public.

    A successful hybrid venture in the seas around Rhodes, Greece.

    This kind of integration offers several advantages. First, it can drive economic growth by attracting tourists interested in sustainable food and environmental practices. This can create a new revenue stream for both the aquaculture and tourism sectors. For example, a small farm on the Greek island of Rhodes partners with a diving centre to offer marine biology tours and dives around its site. Visitors learn about sustainable aquaculture and swim with sea bream in net pens, exploring how these practices support environmental conservation.

    Beyond the economic benefits, it can also raise environmental awareness. As tourists learn about sustainable seafood farming, they are more likely to support more environmentally friendly food production in general.

    By understanding how aquaculture contributes to food security, public perceptions could shift, leading to broader acceptance of aquaculture as a solution for global food challenges. And positive experiences of aquaculture not only shift perceptions but also make it easier for operators to win support from the community and encourage a more responsible approach to farming practices. However, it’s important that these efforts are honest and truly focused on environmental and social responsibility.

    While many of the benefits are clear, there are challenges. Both aquaculture and tourism can damage the environment. Tourism can lead to habitat disruption and pollution, while poorly managed aquaculture can affect water quality and marine biodiversity.

    But when farms are regularly visited as part of tourism activities such as boat tours or guided farm visits, there is a greater incentive to maintain high environmental standards. Nonetheless, careful planning and regulation are essential to ensure both sectors operate sustainably without harming ecosystems.

    Another challenge is the aesthetic impact of aquaculture, a common issue with industrial food production. Fish farms inevitably alter coastal landscapes, but operators can choose design solutions that balance production needs with preserving the outlook.

    Finally, competition for resources and space can lead to conflicts between tourism and aquaculture. Coastal communities must manage these demands carefully to ensure both sectors can thrive. This requires collaboration between tourism operators and aquaculture farmers to prevent clashes over infrastructure and resources.

    Oban’s successful integration of aquaculture and tourism offers a model that can could be replicated by coastal communities globally. But barriers, such as the remoteness of some farms or regulatory requirements, may limit feasibility. However, by transforming fish farms into educational attractions, Oban demonstrates how sustainable practices can benefit both sectors.

    With a focus on cooperation, education and responsible farming, an integrated approach between tourism operators and aquaculture companies could strengthen the reputation of local seafood. Ultimately, it offers a sustainable model for coastal communities.

    Mausam Budhathoki receives funding from the EATFISH project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (Grant 956697).

    Dave Little receives funding from EATFISH project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (Grant 956697).

    – ref. How tourism and fish farming can thrive together – https://theconversation.com/how-tourism-and-fish-farming-can-thrive-together-249835

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How poetry can help us understand mass extinction events

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kate Simpson, PhD Candidate, Extinction Studies, University of Leeds

    Photo by Bea Vallejo on Unsplash.

    Extinction is inevitable. Expected. Almost all (99%) species that have ever existed have died out. Those disappearances have largely occurred at consistent background rates. But in the context of mass extinctions, ecosystems are placed under immense pressure, at above-average speeds. Here, the language changes from the commonplace to the exceptional.

    The most recent of these events occurred at the end of the Cretaceous period, 66 million years ago, following an asteroid collision off the shore of Mexico. And 252 million years ago, at the Permian-Triassic boundary, Earth experienced its most severe loss of animal species to date when mass volcanisms pumped carbon into the air, suffocating life and acidifying oceans, killing off up to 96% of all marine species.

    It is widely accepted that we are currently witnessing the start of a sixth mass extinction. Humans are dramatic ecosystem engineers – irrevocably altering environments and habitats. Past extinction events offer clues about how the Earth has previously responded to being placed under such severe pressure.

    But how can we better understand this extinction? How does this knowledge reach us, as humans, readers, engineers?

    In my anthology Out of Time: Poetry from the Climate Emergency (2021), I argued that poetry has a unique power to explore the stakes and potential of a sixth mass extinction event. In poetry, each mechanism is part of a larger conceptual machine designed to evoke and provoke in boundless, generous ways. As I wrote, poetry “distils ideas … into their most refined and impacting state”. It’s “synaesthetic, with the freedom to join the senses and activate our understanding of a given subject in innate, unsettling, and inexplicable ways”. And it’s “economical … a compressed world ready to be opened up and expanded by the reader”.

    However, poetry is also a space of necessary complication and conflict, being both expansive and limited, affective and affected by human bias. As the poet Ben Lerner notes in The Hatred of Poetry (2016) “you’re moved to write … but as soon as you move from that impulse to the actual poem, the song of the infinite is compromised by the finitude of its terms … you’re back in the human world with its inflexible laws and logic”. This inflexible logic is invaluable, given that it shapes, defines and influences our actions on the planet.

    The geologist Marcia Bjornerud has attributed rapid anthropogenic destruction, and its role in triggering a sixth mass extinction event, to narrow perspectives and shallow, linear thinking. The solution, she suggests, is in attending to the layers of an ancient Earth, contextualising differing rates of change (or tempos) with a “polytemporal” worldview.

    In 2022, I joined the UK’s first Extinction Studies doctoral training programme. I sought to explore how, and to what extent, I could cultivate a “polytemporal” perspective through palaeontological study and poetic practice.

    I set out to understand how words can help us to develop a deeper frame of reference that not only acknowledges but attempts to conceive of immense timescales. This work has taken me from Iceland’s melting glaciers to the ancient geological formations of the Scottish small isles, exploring chronostratigraphic boundaries – sites where eras are thought to start and end.

    Engineering intersections

    Poetry and palaeontology both work with strata. Strata is both literal and literary, sedimentary and metaphoric: it is to be read, to be interpreted, to be imagined around. In poetry, lines function as units of meaning: they can be categorised and contained, but they are part of a larger whole. And in poems (unlike most prose) words offer as much meaning as the silence that surrounds them; the page is not blank, but a negative space through which words resonate, into which meaning is made, or borne from.

    As the poet Don Paterson writes: “Silence is the poet’s ground. Silence delineates the formal borders of the poem, and the formal arrangement of silences puts language under pressure … underwrites the status of the poem as significant mark”. Likewise, fossils offer as much meaning as the negative space that surrounds them, the sediment from which they are excavated. Absence is evidential. It may denote where species moved from extant to extinct. It may denote the environmental pressures that caused this.

    The poet Jorie Graham states that silence “is the sound of the earth … [it] does not need you to interrupt it”. It’s true. Earth, and its ecosystems, do not require us to write, do not require us to make meaning of the past: to name and categorise epochs, eras and events as they layer and compress into strata. However, if we are to alter ecosystems so exceptionally, it is required that we understand the deep time context of our actions, as well as how context provides meaning; how meaning provides emotional value; how emotions drive action.

    Poems are ecosystems that we engineer. They are not spaces where images are created, but where images are transformed from pre-existing vocabularies, cast into meaning against the blank space. Poems may not be so sufficiently affective or effective that they can bring an end to anthropogenic destruction. But, they do demonstrate, on a small scale, how nothing can be made, read, or understood in isolation. That human thinking is bound by certain margins: spatial, temporal, conceptual.

    To comprehend extinction requires us to know how imagination works; where it reaches its limits. Poetry, as an anthropogenic art and process, shows us how to read. Poetry shows us how to recognise connections that occur on both visible and invisible levels.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Kate Simpson receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust.

    – ref. How poetry can help us understand mass extinction events – https://theconversation.com/how-poetry-can-help-us-understand-mass-extinction-events-238813

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Starmer announces aid cuts to fund defence – but Britain’s days as an aid superpower are already long over

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Balazs Szent-Ivanyi, Reader in Politics and International Relations and Deputy Director Aston Centre for Europe, Aston University

    Keir Starmer’s announcement that the UK will cut foreign aid in order to fund more defence spending seems like smart politics. With the US’s commitment to European security in question, it is clear that European countries, including the UK, need to spend more on defence.

    The US president, Donald Trump, with whom the prime minister is meeting on Thursday, has long called out Europeans for free-riding on America’s security guarantee. Credible promises of more British defence spending (including on American kit) may also deter Trump from introducing tariffs on UK imports.

    Building up the UK’s and Europe’s defence capabilities comes with a hefty price tag, and finding the money is tricky. The UK economy has weak growth prospects, and Labour has made a pledge not to increase taxes “on working people”. This leaves budget cuts in other areas as the only approach. The government seems to have decided that cutting foreign aid may be the least painful option for voters.

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    Foreign aid has generally been seen as an area of government spending which has relatively weak groups of domestic supporters. Charities and companies that directly benefit from aid spending through government contracts are a smallish group, and many receive funding from several sources.

    Hostility to aid among the general public is relatively high. According to a 2024 survey by the British Foreign Policy Group, 46% of Britons surveyed thought that UK aid should not return to its previous high of 0.7% of gross national income (GNI), or should be cut even further below the 0.5% at the time of that survey.

    A frequent argument made by successive British governments is that aid, by targeting poverty and conflict, can address the root causes of migration. The public, however, is sceptical about aid’s ability to reduce irregular migration or make the UK safer.



    Read more:
    Why many policies to lower migration actually increase it

    Although Labour voters are more positive about aid’s benefits, it is unlikely that the government would see any major electoral harm from reductions to the aid budget.

    Where aid is really used

    While cutting aid may be a smart move politically, it will have longer-term consequences for the UK’s global influence and its ability to achieve positive change in the world. Many charities were quick to point this out, arguing that it will hurt the lives of the poorest across the world.

    Aid is now set to shrink from 0.5% of GNI to 0.3%, which implies the UK will still have a substantial aid programme. On average, rich countries spent 0.37% of their GNI on aid in 2023 – not much more than what the UK will spend now.

    In practice, however, 23% of the British aid budget in 2023 was made up by Home Office spending on housing refugees in the UK. This is unlikely to decline quickly, even though the government has said it aims to reduce it. A further 34% consisted of contributions to multilateral organisations like the United Nations and World Bank. While there is scope to cut some of this, large savings are difficult without the UK leaving some organisations.

    Given these two fixed items, very little will remain for “genuine” development programmes in partner countries – the kind of funding that is actually visible as UK aid.



    Read more:
    The UK spent a third of its international aid budget on refugees in the UK – what it’s paying for, and why it’s a problem

    Such a small genuine aid programme will undoubtedly mean lower development impact and lower British influence. But the UK’s standing and soft power, particularly in poorer countries, was already in tatters well before Starmer’s announcement.

    The merger between the Foreign Office and Department for International Development in 2020, followed by budget cuts and the re-allocation of aid to the Home Office, has destroyed the UK’s reputation as an “aid superpower” and champion of the global poor.

    Across-the-board cuts have even devastated programmes which the UK has declared as priority areas, such as support for women and girls. Some would argue that after these cuts, the UK did not have much of a reputation left to lose.

    But this story of UK aid is not unique. Indeed, the world has entered a new era of aid fatigue. The populist right portrays aid as wasteful and ineffective, as shown by the Trump administration’s dismantling of the US Agency for International Development.



    Read more:
    USAID’s freeze has thrust the entire global aid system into uncertainty

    Many Africans see aid as a neocolonial enterprise aimed at spreading western ideologies, a sentiment often echoed by the progressive left. Western countries themselves are increasingly open about their selfish reasons for providing aid, such as boosting business, while many non-western donors have emerged as alternatives.

    It is not a surprise that the west’s influence in the world has waned, as evidenced by its failure to build a global anti-Russia coalition following the invasion of Ukraine.

    The UK will need to adapt to these realities. Designing a smarter and highly targeted aid programme, perhaps from the ground up, is now more important than ever to rebuild Britain’s reputation.

    Balazs Szent-Ivanyi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Starmer announces aid cuts to fund defence – but Britain’s days as an aid superpower are already long over – https://theconversation.com/starmer-announces-aid-cuts-to-fund-defence-but-britains-days-as-an-aid-superpower-are-already-long-over-250873

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine war: why negotiations depend on trust

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By David J. Wilcox, Part-Time Teaching Fellow, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Birmingham

    Donald Trump may have begun discussions with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, over a possible end to the war in Ukraine, but there currently appears to be something of a stalemate.

    Russia’s stated objectives of holding on to five regions of Ukraine (including Crimea) as well as ensuring Ukraine’s permanent neutrality is unlikely to be acceptable to Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky. Meanwhile, Zelensky and Trump had a very public falling out, with the US president calling Zelensky a “dictator”.

    This seems to have been resolved somewhat now that the pair appear to have agreed a deal for the US to jointly develop Ukraine’s mineral resources. But serious further negotiation to actually end the war will depend on whether the key players can trust each other as well as whether Zelensky perceives anything Putin and Trump have to say as believable.

    Broadly speaking, trust and its development between leaders offers a potential route to overcoming international conflict and bringing about diplomatic agreement. Indeed, a minimum level of trust is needed to enable states to work together.

    An example of this was how the relationship between Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and US president Ronald Reagan developed. Arguably it was regular face-to-face interactions between Gorbachev and Reagan (four summits in just over three years) which allowed them to develop a level of understanding and increase trust, allowing them to reduce nuclear weapon stockpiles.

    Nevertheless, it still took time to develop their trust and this remained fragile.

    How is trust won?

    Trust is an important element in effective negotiations and can shape their outcome and influence whether peace talks are successful. The importance of trust in a negotiation can be found throughout history.

    US talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia, February 2025.

    Even if trust has potentially developed between leaders, if other individual decision-makers, such as military leaders, do not share that trust, it can seriously damage negotiations. One example of this is how the Lahore peace process between India and Pakistan in 1999 was undermined by Pakistani military action.

    General Pervez Musharraf, head of the armed forces, conducted a military incursion into the Jammu and Kashmir area, violating the treaty between the two states and leading to a breakdown in trust, undermining the peace deal signed earlier that year between the Pakistani prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, and his Indian counterpart, Atal Bihari Vajpayee

    Who do you trust?

    In international relations terms the key factors that create trust are considered by scholars to be capacity, peaceful intention, integrity and predictability . Trump seems to believe that Putin is a trustworthy negotiating partner because he perceives him as sincere in his desire for peace. This view is not shared by Zelensky, who questions Putin’s sincerity, intentions and integrity .

    Zelensky suggests that Putin’s past actions (including leading a full-scale invasion of Ukraine) point towards his future untrustworthiness. This may be underlined by Russia’s dismissal of the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015, which were an attempt to negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine but were never properly implemented. Instead of pursuing implementation, Russia chose further military action against Ukraine in 2022.

    To move forward with negotiations, Zelensky will need to be convinced that Putin is serious in his intentions and willing to act with integrity. The Ukrainian leader will also need to be convinced that Trump is trustworthy and that he can trust that the US will ensure that Putin honours any agreement reached.

    If Trump is to achieve his aim of bringing the war to an end, then he will clearly need to address this lack of trust. One temptation may emerge to simply exclude Zelensky from face-to-face meetings (to sidestep the issue altogether) but there are risks in leaders not meeting opponents.

    When it came to trying to reach an agreement with the Palestinians in the 1990s, the then Israeli prime minister, Yitzhak Rabin, regretted not having met the PLO chairman, Yasser Arafat, before reaching agreement on the framework for the Oslo accords because he would have better understood how Arafat saw the negotiations. The implication was that Rabin would have proceeded differently if he had known Arafat better.

    Alternatively, Trump could leverage his own relationship with Putin to “encourage” the Russian leader to take steps that demonstrate to Zelensky that he is a trustworthy negotiating partner. Crucially, it will be for Putin to demonstrate his seriousness and sincerity towards meaningful negotiations and a peaceful resolution. Gestures of conciliation could hold the key.

    One famous examples of this is when Egyptian president Anwar Sadat visited Jerusalem in 1978, becoming the first Arab leader to speak to the Israeli parliament. This was seen as vital to peace talks between the two countries and resulted in the 1979 Camp David accords.

    Face-to-face interactions between Putin and Zelensky could provide a way of reassuring the Ukrainian leader. However, much more is required to demonstrate that an individual or even a state is trustworthy than not.

    As Deborah Larson, professor of political science at the University of California, once said,: “People believe that a good person will never do anything bad, whereas a bad person can do occasional good as well as bad deeds. As a result, just one misdeed indicates that an actor is immoral, whereas one good act does not demonstrate much.”

    Another approach would be to start Russian-Ukrainian negotiations at a much lower level and develop them upwards (or in parallel to higher-level negotiations). Individuals representing the key decision makers could develop their own interpersonal relations, while working out how to bridge gaps between the different leaders.

    Any negotiations to end the war will rest ultimately on those two states and their leaders. Ignoring the interpersonal relationships and lack of trust between the two people who will sign off any agreement makes any agreement almost impossible.

    David J. Wilcox does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ukraine war: why negotiations depend on trust – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-why-negotiations-depend-on-trust-250102

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump and Europe: US ‘transactionalism on steroids’ is the challenge facing leaders now

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew Glencross, Directeur d’ESPOL, Professeur de Science Politique, Institut catholique de Lille (ICL)

    Donald Trump has always been an avowed transactionalist rather than a transatlanticist. The author of The Art of the Deal made it clear during his first term as US president that he thought Nato was a bad deal for the US. He publicly berated European allies, notably Germany, for not spending enough on defence and leaving the US to pick up the tab.

    But with his Ukraine policy, Trump 2.0 is forcing Europeans to confront the previously unthinkable: an international order where the US is no longer an automatic ally of European security.

    Lord Ismay, the first secretary-general of Nato, quipped that the purpose of the transatlantic alliance was to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”. For the following decades, Nato worked pretty much as intended. It provided the political and organisational basis for a significant US military presence, including an active US nuclear deterrent.

    The transatlantic alliance nevertheless witnessed some significant disagreements. In 1966, French president Charles de Gaulle forced US and other allied troops to leave French soil and withdrew from Nato’s integrated military command. The 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq generated enormous tension among Nato allies as France and Germany opposed American attempts to get UN backing for military action. Yet within months, these two countries made a major commitment to the Nato force that was deployed to Afghanistan for 20 years.

    Like any international organisation, Nato’s history thus reflects a mix of success, failure, and muddling through. Ukraine-Nato relations encapsulate this reality. In 2008, the US was pushing European allies to welcome Ukraine as a Nato member. Back then, it was the leaders of France and Germany who refused to back the proposal.

    No longer an ally

    In the aftermath of the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, Ukraine pursued a twin track of seeking EU and Nato membership. This strategy is based on the longstanding complementary nature of European integration and transatlantic collective security. Central and eastern European countries embraced this arrangement after the collapse of the Soviet Union, much to the displeasure of Vladimir Putin.

    But Trump’s actions since January have fundamentally called into question the reliability of the US as a European ally. His insistence on doing a minerals deal to guarantee that Ukraine pays back US support for the war effort is transactionalism on steroids. It is also a unilateral move that contradicts the multilateral approach for supporting Ukraine that the US coordinated via the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, an alliance of 57 nations founded in 2022.

    More worrying still is Trump’s break with the underlying common values underpinning Nato. An alliance committed to defending its territorial integrity, including through the use of its nuclear arsenal, requires a commitment to a higher political goal. Since the end of the cold war, that overriding objective has been defined as freedom and democracy.

    The second Trump administration does not even seem to want to pay lip service to these transatlantic values. Trump has labelled Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator”. And at the latest UN summit, the US delegation voted with Russia, Belarus and North Korea against a resolution condemning Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.



    Read more:
    US says European security no longer its primary focus – the shift has been years in the making

    EU defence without the US

    Shell-shocked European leaders are adapting to this harsh new reality. An initial reaction, as illustrated by UK prime minister Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron, has been to promise more money for defence spending. This move constitutes a hedge: it ought to please Trump, while providing a platform for a future reconfiguration of European security.

    How to defend Europe is now an existential question rather than a purely material one. De Gaulle always insisted that Europe’s defence and foreign policy needed to serve its own interests rather than America’s. He lost that battle, but the newly elected German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is sounding rather Gaullist in his recent calls for a more independent European security policy.

    Another move taken from de Gaulle’s playbook is the EU’s focus on defence industrial strategy. A strong technological and industrial base is a pre-requisite of an independent security policy, and with this in mind, the EU’s defence industry programme was announced in spring 2024. The details of this new policy are currently being hashed out, but are likely to include some type of “made in Europe” requirement.



    Read more:
    Ukraine: prospects for peace are slim unless Europe grips the reality of Trump’s world

    Europe has to renew its purpose

    What is clear is that an independent security policy for Europe is both costly and a political minefield – one reliable estimate puts the cost at 250 billion euros per year. Getting public backing for this big spending increase is not impossible, yet it means tough choices, as shown by Starmer’s cuts to the UK’s foreign aid budget.

    Trickier still is finding the leadership to coordinate defence spending and strategy. European decision-makers and the parties they represent are far from aligned over the need to find an alternative to the US security guarantee. Indeed, Polish president Andrzej Duda responded to Merz’s calls for greater EU independence from the US by offering to host the US troops currently based in Germany.

    Trump has shattered a number of European illusions. Creating a new European security architecture will depend on finding more than just cash – it needs a new shared objective, not just a repudiation of grubby transactionalism.

    Andrew Glencross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump and Europe: US ‘transactionalism on steroids’ is the challenge facing leaders now – https://theconversation.com/trump-and-europe-us-transactionalism-on-steroids-is-the-challenge-facing-leaders-now-250836

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Renewable energy: rural areas can be the EU’s green powerhouse

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Lewis Dijkstra, Team Leader Urban and Territorial Analysis, Joint Research Centre (JRC)

    The European Union aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% in 2030 compared to 1990 levels, and to become the first carbon-neutral economy by 2050. This ambitious goal requires a radical increase in the production of green energy within a relatively short timeframe. The untapped potential of rural areas in the union offers a way forward.

    Rural areas could produce more energy than we need

    Rural areas cover more than 80% of the EU’s territory and are host to around 30% of its population. Our work at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) shows that rural territories already generate the largest share of green electricity (72%) from the three most prominent renewable technologies: solar photovoltaic, onshore wind and hydropower. The remaining share of renewable energy is produced in towns and suburbs (22%) and cities (6%). Germany, Spain, France, Italy and Sweden are the top five renewable energy producers in the union, accounting for 68% of its total production from solar, onshore wind and hydropower installations.

    But there is more. According to our analyses, rural areas also possess the highest untapped potential of renewable energy production–nearly 80%. Theoretically, they could produce enough to meet the total energy demand of the EU. We estimate that the total potential of solar, onshore wind and hydropower energy production in rural areas nears 12,500 terawatt hours per year. That’s more than five times the amount of electricity the union consumed in 2023, and it surpasses total energy consumption (which includes sources such as gas, oil and coal) for that year, too.

    Technologies that suit the land

    All this energy could be produced in rural areas without disrupting existing agricultural systems, landscapes and natural resources. Rural areas could produce up to 60 times more solar energy than what they currently deliver, quadruple their output from wind, and boost hydropower production by 25%. Spain, Romania, France, Portugal and Italy are the five EU countries with the highest combined (solar, wind and hydropower) untapped potential: together, they account for 67% of the EU’s potential, with contributions from rural areas ranging from 92% in France to 49% in Italy.

    Overall, solar panels installed on the ground can make the biggest contribution to green energy production in the EU. However, rural areas across the union are highly diverse, so choosing the right technology would depend on local characteristics. Mountainous areas with abundant water resources are a good fit for hydropower production, while rural municipalities with large areas of suitable land lend themselves to solar or wind energy, depending on sun irradiation and wind speed. In rural areas where wind and land are insufficient, rooftop photovoltaic systems are a good option.

    Boosting clean energy production can be a win-win

    Rural areas are key to producing more renewable energy, as almost 80% of suitable, available land is located there. In addition, some of these areas are facing demographic and economic decline and are already the target of measures aimed at making them stronger, resilient and prosperous–as part of the EU’s long-term vision for rural areas. In this context, ensuring that these areas benefit economically from hosting more renewable energy projects makes them even more enticing. It also aligns with political considerations, as energy independence is a key part of the EU’s goal of strategic autonomy.



    À lire aussi :
    Could the EU’s Green Deal provide security benefits?

    Addressing local concerns and fostering acceptance

    While the potential offered by renewables is unquestionable, their production sites can face resistance from communities concerned about impacts on the local economy and quality of life. Seeing land used to produce energy with little local employment and seemingly for the benefit of large companies can also lead to resistance. Other concerns include competition for land use in areas where income is tied to other industries (such as agriculture or tourism), and the potential environmental impact of solar panels and wind or hydropower plants on rustic landscapes. With these concerns in mind, we identified portions of land suitable to host renewable energy plants that comprise roughly 3.4% of the EU’s surface. We excluded protected nature sites and biodiversity areas, forests and water bodies. We used strict limits on the use of agricultural land for energy production by only considering land that has been abandoned or has a very low productivity. Finally, we created buffer zones around infrastructure and settlements to minimise disturbance and safeguard natural beauty and cultural heritage.

    Engaging local communities to find solutions

    In our report, several case studies show the successful implementation of renewable energy projects in rural areas, driven by community engagement, collaboration and innovative financing models. From the first community-owned turbine in southern Europe in Catalonia, Spain, to a commercial energy company giving part of its profits to a local cause chosen with an energy community in the northern Netherlands, these cases highlight the potential for such projects to contribute to energy security, produce economic and social benefits and promote environmental sustainability.

    These case studies show that active involvement of local communities from the early stages of renewable energy projects can foster acceptance. Citizens who are actively engaged or even share ownership in small- or medium-scale projects become more supportive. Beyond seeing profits stay local, engaged communities can mitigate negative effects of production by, for instance, choosing where to locate new energy plants.

    Our report also offers an overview of renewable energy communities’ role in ensuring a sustainable energy transition in which rural areas are not left behind. The number of renewable energy communities in the EU is rising and, although an exact count is unavailable, it is estimated that there were over 4,000 of them, with some 900,000 members, in 2023. These communities are mainly concentrated in northwest Europe, and a high proportion are rural. Beyond energy communities, place-based approaches, where local populations and administrations are engaged from the early stages and see clear benefits, can make an important contribution to our sustainable transition.

    Lewis Dijkstra ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    – ref. Renewable energy: rural areas can be the EU’s green powerhouse – https://theconversation.com/renewable-energy-rural-areas-can-be-the-eus-green-powerhouse-250669

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Jewish Council slams Australian universities’ ‘dangerous, politicised’ antisemitism definition

    Asia Pacific Report

    An independent Jewish body has condemned the move by Australia’s 39 universities to endorse a “dangerous and politicised” definition of antisemitism which threatens academic freedom.

    The Jewish Council of Australia, a diverse coalition of Jewish academics, lawyers, writers and teachers, said in a statement that the move would have a “chilling effect” on legitimate criticism of Israel, and risked institutionalising anti-Palestinian racism.

    The council also criticised the fact that the universities had done so “without meaningful consultation” with Palestinian groups or diverse Jewish groups which were critical of Israel.

    The definition was developed by the Group of Eight (Go8) universities and adopted by Universities Australia.

    “By categorising Palestinian political expression as inherently antisemitic, it will be unworkable and unenforceable, and stifle critical political debate, which is at the heart of any democratic society,” the Jewish Council of Australia said.

    “The definition dangerously conflates Jewish identities with support for the state of Israel and the political ideology of Zionism.”

    The council statement said that it highlighted two key concerns:

    Mischaracterisation of criticism of Israel
     The definition states: “Criticism of Israel can be antisemitic when it is grounded in harmful tropes, stereotypes or assumptions and when it calls for the elimination of the State of Israel or all Jews or when it holds Jewish individuals or communities responsible for Israel’s actions.”

    The definition’s inclusion of “calls for the elimination of the State of Israel” would mean, for instance, that calls for a single binational democratic state, where Palestinians and Israelis had equal rights, could be labelled antisemitic.

    Moreover, the wording around “harmful tropes” was dangerously vague, failing to distinguish between tropes about Jewish people, which were antisemitic, and criticism of the state of Israel, which was not, the statement said.

    Misrepresentation of Zionism as core to Jewish identity
     The definition states that for most Jewish people “Zionism is a core part of their Jewish identity”.

    The council said it was deeply concerned that by adopting this definition, universities would be taking and promoting a view that a national political ideology was a core part of Judaism.

    “This is not only inaccurate, but is also dangerous,” said the statement.

    “Zionism is a political ideology of Jewish nationalism, not an intrinsic part of Jewish identity.

    “There is a long history of Jewish opposition to Zionism, from the beginning of its emergence in the late-19th century, to the present day. Many, if not the majority, of people who hold Zionist views today are not Jewish.”

    In contrast to Zionism and the state of Israel, said the council, Jewish identities traced back more than 3000 years and spanned different cultures and traditions.

    Jewish identities were a rightly protected category under all racial discrimination laws, whereas political ideologies such as Zionism and support for Israel were not, the council said.

    Growing numbers of dissenting Jews
    “While many Jewish people identify as Zionist, many do not. There are a growing number of Jewish people worldwide, including in Australia, who disagree with the actions of the state of Israel and do not support Zionism.

    “Australian polling in this area is not definitive, but some polls suggest that 30 percent of Australian Jews do not identify as Zionists.

    “A recent Canadian poll found half of Canadian Jews do not identify as Zionist. In the United States, more and more Jewish people are turning away from Zionist beliefs and support for the state of Israel.”

    Sarah Schwartz, a human rights lawyer and the Jewish Council of Australia’s executive officer, said: “It degrades the very real fight against antisemitism for it to be weaponised to silence legitimate criticism of the Israeli state and Palestinian political expressions.

    “It also risks fomenting division between communities and institutionalising anti-Palestinian racism.”

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 15 million South Africans don’t get enough to eat every day: 4 solutions

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Stephen Devereux, Research Fellow, Institute of Development Studies

    At least 15 million South Africans suffer from food insecurity. That means they don’t have enough nutritious food to live healthy lives.

    This is due to a combination of factors, including unemployment, poverty, inequality and food system failures.

    More than 1,000 children die from malnutrition each year. This compares unfavourably with 350 child deaths from malnutrition in Brazil, which has more than three times South Africa’s population, and 269 child deaths in Colombia, which has about the same per capita income as South Africa.

    A robust indicator of chronic hunger is child stunting. Stunting in South Africa has flatlined at around 25%, or one in four children, since the early 1990s. Other middle-income countries such as Brazil and Peru have made impressive progress. Peru halved its rate from 28% in 2008 to 13% in 2016, after the president committed to reducing stunting.



    Read more:
    South Africa’s hunger problem is turning into a major health crisis

    How can South Africa’s government deliver on the right to food and begin the urgent process of eradicating hunger?

    We have worked on food security and food justice for many years. We’ve researched the links between social protection and hunger and between food systems and nutrition, and the cost of hunger.

    Based on this experience, our view is that food shortages are not a cause of hunger in South Africa. The country produces and imports all the food it needs. Instead, the problem is unequal access to food. While some South Africans live in a world of abundance, with no budget constraints, millions more survive below the food poverty line, unable to afford even a basic nutritious diet for their families.

    We believe that the government must deliver on the constitutional right to food and begin the urgent process of eradicating hunger. It can do this by expanding the social grant system, extending the school nutrition programme, reducing food waste, and ensuring access to land for low-income rural and peri-urban households.

    Above all, a coherent and coordinated strategy for tackling hunger is needed, led by a minister of food, following models like Brazil’s Zero Hunger initiative. In December 2024, Brazil handed over the G20 presidency to South Africa, after it launched the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty. South Africa should embrace the embrace the spirit and focus of the alliance to develop its own Zero Hunger strategy.

    Four steps to end hunger

    The South African government pays out 19 million social grants a month, or 26 million if the 9 million recipients of the special social relief of distress grant are included. Without these cash transfers, poverty and malnutrition in the country would be even higher. But they are inadequate, especially in a context of high and rising food prices.



    Read more:
    South Africa’s fight against extreme poverty needs a new strategy – model shows how social grants could work

    Firstly, the following changes should be made to social grant payments.

    • An immediate increase in the child support grant, followed by further increases. The goal should be to get this grant, which is currently below the food poverty line at R530 a month (US$28), to R1,634 (US$34). This is the minimum amount of money needed to meet basic needs, including nutritious food, clothing and shelter.

    • Pregnant women should receive a maternal support grant from 12 weeks of pregnancy, to reduce the risk of low birth weight.

    • Social grants should increase to match inflation every year.

    Secondly, the National School Nutrition Programme, which provides one nutritious meal to all learners in poorer primary and secondary schools, has limited impact because meals are provided only on weekdays during school terms.

    The programme should be boosted in the following ways:

    • The Department of Basic Education must deliver adequate nutrition to all children in early learning programmes, all year round.

    • Programmes for school-age children should be extended to ensure that they all receive at least one nutritious meal every day, including on weekends and school holidays.

    • Adequate funding should be given to school food gardens and nutrition education. Moreover, the national school nutrition programme starts too late to address under-5 stunting. It only begins when children enter grade R, aged 5.



    Read more:
    Malnutrition in South Africa: how one community wants resources to be spent

    Thirdly, interventions are needed in the food system.

    • Prices of essential food items should be regulated, to keep them affordable for low-income South Africans and to encourage shifts in consumption choices towards healthier, more nutritious diets.

    • Positive dietary choices can also be promoted through the use of subsidies, discounts or vouchers on “best buy” foods, either for all consumers or for shoppers receiving social grants. They could be given vouchers for nutritious food items along with their cash transfers. Food subsidies or vouchers must include foods that are protein-rich (meat, fish, eggs, dairy), since protein is highly inaccessible to the poor.



    Read more:
    How do people choose what food to buy? Answers depend on what you ask – so we built a research tool for African countries

    • Government must extend social security protections to seasonal and informal workers during periods of unemployment and underemployment. Seasonal hunger requires specific attention. Seasonal farm workers – most of whom are women – have low incomes, few savings, and limited access to unemployment insurance. They face food insecurity and hunger during the off-season winter months.

    • The government’s land redistribution programme should prioritise securing access to land for poor agrarian or peri-urban households, and providing support (water, inputs, extension advice) to farm that land. This would help vulnerable groups which derive most of their food from production.

    Agrarian households (smallholder farmers, farm workers, farm dwellers) are poorer and more food insecure, especially the female-headed households who survive below the food poverty line. When farm women with food gardens have direct access to fresh vegetables, their dietary diversity improves, and they earn income by selling produce to meet their basic needs.

    Lastly, steps must be take to reduce loss and waste in the food system.

    A third of food produced in South Africa, 10 million of 31 million tons, goes to waste each year. This is equivalent to 30 billion meals, in a context where an estimated 20 billion meals would be enough to end hunger. The government has committed to halving food waste by 2030, in its draft food losses and waste strategy of 2023. It must be finalised and operationalised.

    Next steps

    These interventions would cost money. And the government will argue that it is doing all it can to address hunger with the resources available.

    There are many options for raising additional resources to address the hunger crisis – as seen when the government found R500 billion (US$33 billion) to address the COVID-19 crisis in 2020.

    The government should also consider raising additional revenue by introducing a wealth tax targeting high-net-worth individuals. This could be used to increase social grants or subsidise nutritious foods.



    Read more:
    Urban food gardens produce more than vegetables, they create bonds for young Capetonians – study

    Finally, government needs to tackle hunger in a coordinated way. Several government departments, including agriculture, social development and health, address issues related to food security. However, no government ministry focuses specifically on hunger.

    The president should appoint a minister of food to address the hunger crisis along the lines of the special minister of electricity position established in 2023 to deal with the country’s energy supply problem.



    Read more:
    South Africa needs to change direction on maternal health to solve child malnutrition

    At the same time, a national food commission should be established, to monitor and coordinate all initiatives that focus on the goal of eradicating hunger.

    The government should be guided by the priorities set down by a new coalition – the Union Against Hunger – which is due to be launched on 26 February. The initiative is a coalition of civil society organisations and academics (the authors are among the founding members). It has compiled a list of 10 demands that reflect our analysis of the causes of hunger and recommended solutions. They include realising everyone’s constitutional right to food, halving child stunting by 2030 and making nutritious food accessible to all.

    Stephen Devereux receives funding from the National Research Foundation (NRF). He holds a Research Chair in Social Protection for Food Security, affiliated to the DSI–NRF Centre of Excellence in Food Security and the Institute for Social Development at the University of the Western Cape, South Africa.

    Busiso Moyo previously received funding from the Centre of Excellence in Food Security – UWC and the IDRC-Canada. He is affiliated with the Union Against Hunger (UAH) initiative.

    Mark Heywood previously headed Section 27, which receives funding and received funding for the Justice and Activism Hub. He is affiliated with the Union Against Hunger initiative.

    – ref. 15 million South Africans don’t get enough to eat every day: 4 solutions – https://theconversation.com/15-million-south-africans-dont-get-enough-to-eat-every-day-4-solutions-250700

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: J’accuse!… the Jew who accuses his fellow Jews of being antisemites

    A rally on the steps of the Victorian Parliament under the banner of Jews for a Free Palestine was arranged for Sunday, February 9. At 11:11pm on the eve of that rally, Mark Leibler —a  lawyer who claims to have a high profile and speak on behalf of Jews by the totally unelected organisation AIJAC — put out a tweet on X (and paid for an advertisement of the same posting) as follows:

    COMMENTARY: By Jeffrey Loewenstein

    As someone Jewish, the son of Holocaust survivors and members of whose family were murdered by the Nazis, it is hard to know whether to characterise Mark Leibler’s tweet as offensive, appalling, contemptuous, insulting or a disgusting, shameful and grievous introduction of the Holocaust, and those who were murdered by the Nazis, into his tweet — or all of the foregoing!

    Leibler’s tweet is most likely a breach of recently passed legislation in Australia, both federally and in various state Parliaments, making hateful words and actions, and doxxing, criminal offences. It will be “interesting” to see how the police deal with the complaint taken up with the police alleging Leibler’s breach of the legislation.

    In the end, Leibler’s attempted intimidation of those who might have been thinking of going to the rally failed — miserably!

    There are many Jews who abhor what Israel is doing in Gaza (and the West Bank) but feel intimidated by the Leiblers of this world who accuse them of being antisemitic for speaking out against Israel’s actions and not those rusted-on 100 percent supporters of Israel who blindly and uncritically support whatever Israel does, however egregious.

    Leibler, and others like him, who label Jews as antisemites because they dare speak out about Israel’s actions, certainly need to be called out.

    As a lawyer, Leibler knows that actions have consequences. A group of concerned Jews (this writer included) are in the process of lodging a complaint about Leibler’s tweet with the Commonwealth Human Rights Commission.

    Separately from that, this week will see full-page adverts in both the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age — signed by hundreds of Jews — bearing the heading:

    “Australia must reject Trump’s call for the removal of Palestinians from Gaza. Jewish Australians say NO to ethnic cleansing.”

    Jeffrey Loewenstein, LLB, was a member of the Victorian Bar and a one-time chair of the Anti-Defamation Commission and member of the Jewish Community Council of Victoria. This article was first published by Pearls & Irritations public policy journal and is republished here with permission.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The UK must make big changes to its diets, farming and land use to hit net zero – official climate advisers

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Neil Ward, Professor of Rural and Regional Development at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia

    William Edge / shutterstock

    If the UK is to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, over one-third of its sheep and cows will have to go, with their fields being replaced by huge new areas of woodland. That’s one conclusion of the latest report by the the Climate Change Committee (CCC), the UK government’s independent advisor on climate change.

    The CCC is tasked with outlining how much greenhouse gas the UK can emit if it is to achieve its climate targets – its “carbon budget”. The committee also recommends how the country might reduce its emissions to get within that budget. It sets future budgets every five years or so. This latest report, the seventh carbon budget, looks at emissions in the period 2038 to 2043. It updates the sixth carbon budget produced in 2020.

    The UK has almost halved its greenhouse gas emissions since 1990, but that was the easy half. Most dirty industries are long gone, for instance, and coal power plants have been replaced with gas and renewable energy.

    Next, the country will be grappling with the most challenging sectors including the focus of my academic research: agriculture and land use. This challenge will be worsened by the impacts of climate change and geopolitical uncertainties that raise doubts about the UK’s food security.

    Currently, agriculture makes up about 11% of UK emissions, but this proportion will rise considerably over the next 15 years as other sectors decarbonise further. Cattle and sheep contribute most of these emissions, and the latest carbon budget suggests their numbers will have to be reduced by 22% by 2035 and by over 38% by 2050.

    This is principally to release land to plant tens of thousands of hectares of new woodland each year (60,000 hectares a year by 2040) and to grow energy crops (38,000 hectares a year by 2040). It will also mean fewer emissions from the animals themselves and from growing animal feed.

    The UK needs a lot more of this.
    Callums Trees / shutterstock

    Less meat and dairy

    The latest carbon budget suggests that dietary change is key to this anticipated change in farming and land use. While British people won’t need to give up meat entirely, they will need to reduce consumption of meat and dairy products by around 35% by 2050 compared to 2019 levels.

    Meat and dairy consumption are already falling, however, and the trend has accelerated since 2020. To meet the budget, the decline would need to continue but more rapidly than the long-term trend.

    The CCC is in the business of advising on what government should do to address climate change, not in the business of telling people what to eat. It hopes that food labels with additional information about emissions will help people make better choices for themselves.

    Emphasising non-meat options and altering the layout of supermarkets may also help change the “choice environment” and so change consumption practices. Nevertheless, before long, the UK and devolved governments will have to grasp the nettle of diet change, land use and livestock. There have already been successful legal challenges for having inadequate plans in this area.

    It helps that diets good for the planet are also good for people’s health. In October 2024, the House of Lords food, diet and obesity committee estimated diet-related ill health and obesity cost £98 billion a year. This is a significant drag on productivity and places acute pressures on the NHS.

    Plant-based foods are better for food security

    Energy security is currently prompting much thought and action, but food security has not. Dietary change can also help improve the UK’s food security, however, since meat and dairy take up more land per calorie than healthier alternatives. A large-scale shift in diet and land use could render the UK more resilient to future wars, pandemics or anything else that causes shocks to food prices and supplies.

    For farmers and landowners there has been increasing interest in greener approaches to production, sometimes called regenerative farming. Some within, or clustered around, farming will protest about the scale of reduction in animal numbers implied by net zero.

    Faced with the basic maths, a marked reduction looks unavoidable. The sooner the conversation can shift from whether change is needed to how it might best be fairly and equitably pursued, the better.

    This carbon budget brings positive opportunities for nature restoration, diversifying rural economies and improving the appearance and ecology of the countryside. But for net emissions to come down enough, the amount of wooded land will need to increase from 13% to 19% by 2050 – that’s over a million extra hectares, or roughly equivalent to Cornwall, Devon and Dorset combined.

    These are very stretching targets, and tree planting over the past few years has fallen far short of the rates required. Because afforestation is such an important factor in the carbon budget, if the UK fails to meet its targets, the dietary changes may need to be even greater.

    Heightened international instability threatening UK food security could mean the same. Indeed, some food, health and environmental organisations will point to the seventh carbon budget and say the CCC has not gone far enough.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Neil Ward receives funding from UKRI in his role as Co-lead of the AFN (AgriFood4NetZero) Network+.. He is a member of the Labour Party and the National Trust.

    – ref. The UK must make big changes to its diets, farming and land use to hit net zero – official climate advisers – https://theconversation.com/the-uk-must-make-big-changes-to-its-diets-farming-and-land-use-to-hit-net-zero-official-climate-advisers-250158

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: AI-detection software isn’t the solution to classroom cheating — assessment has to shift

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Michael Holden, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Education, University of Winnipeg

    Two years since the release of ChatGPT, teachers and institutions are still struggling with assessment in the age of artificial intelligence (AI).

    Some have banned AI tools outright. Others have turned to AI tools only to abandon them months later or have called for teachers to embrace AI to transform assessment.

    The result is a hodgepodge of responses, leaving many kindergarten to Grade 12 and post-secondary teachers to make decisions about AI use that may not be aligned with the teacher next door, institutional policies, or current research on what AI can and cannot do.

    One response has been to use AI detection software, which rely on algorithms to try to identify how a specific text was generated.

    AI detection tools are better than humans at spotting AI-generated work. But they’re a sufficiently imperfect solution, and they do nothing to address the core validity problem of designing assessments where we can be confident in what students know and can do.

    Teachers using AI detectors

    A recent American survey, based on nationally representative surveys of K-12 public school teachers published by the Center for Democracy and Technology, reported that 68 per cent of teachers use AI detectors.

    This practice has also founds its way into some Canadian K-12 schools and universities.

    AI detectors vary in their methods. Two common approaches are to check for qualities described as “burstiness,” referring to alternating and short and long sentences (the way humans tend to write) and complexity (or “perplexity”). If an assignment does not have the typical markers of human-generated text, the software may flag it as AI-generated, prompting the teacher to begin an investigation for academic misconduct.

    To its credit, AI detection software is more reliable than human detection. Repeated studies across contexts show humans — including teachers and other experts — are incapable of reliably distinguishing AI-generated text, despite teachers’ confidence that they can spot a fake.

    Teachers should not be confident they can spot AI-generated text. Icons for apps DeepSeek and ChatGPT on a smartphone screen in Beijing, Jan. 28, 2025.
    (AP Photo/Andy Wong)

    Accuracy of detectors varies

    While some AI detection tools are unreliable or biased against English language learners, others seem to be more successful. However, what success rates should really signal for educators is questionable.

    Turnitin boasts that their AI detector has a 99 per cent success rate, vis-à-vis their near one per cent rate of false positives (that is, the number of human-generated submissions their tool incorrectly flags as AI-generated). This accuracy has been challenged by a recent study that found Turnitin only detected AI-generated text about 61 per cent of the time.

    The same study suggested how different factors could shape accuracy results. For example, GPTZero’s accuracy may be as low as 26 per cent, especially if students edit the output an AI tool generates. Yet a different study of the same detector suggested a wide range of results (for example, between 23 and 82 per cent accuracy or 74 and 100 per cent accuracy).

    Considering numbers in context

    The value of a percentage depends on its context. In most courses, being correct 99 per cent of the time is exceptional. It’s above the most common threshold for statistical significance in academic research, which is often set at 95 per cent.

    But a 99 per cent success rate would be atrocious in air travel. There, a 99 per cent success rate would mean around 500 accidents every day in the United States alone. That level of failure would be unacceptable.

    To suggest what this could look like: at an institution like mine, the University of Winnipeg, about 10,000 students submit multiple assignments — we could ballpark five, for argument’s sake — for around five courses every year.

    That would be about 250,000 assignments every year. There, even a 99 per cent success rate means roughly 2,500 failures. That’s 2,500 false positives where students did not use ChatGPT or other tools, but the AI detection software flags them for possible use of AI, potentially initiating hours of investigative work for teachers and administrators alongside stress for students who may be falsely accused of cheating.

    Time wasted investigating false positives

    While AI detection software merely flag possible problems, we’ve already seen that humans are unreliable detectors. We cannot tell which of these 2,500 assignments are false positives, meaning cheaters will still slip through the cracks and precious teacher time will be wasted investigating innocent students who did nothing wrong.

    This is not a new problem. Cheating has been a major concern long before ChatGPT. Ubiquitous AI has merely shed a spotlight on a long-standing validity problem.

    When students can plagiarize, hire contract cheaters, rely on ChatGPT or have their friend or sister write the paper, relying on take-home assessments written outside class time without any teacher oversight is indefensible. I cannot presume that such forms of assessment represent the student’s learning, because I cannot reliably discern if the student actually wrote them.

    Need to change assessment

    The solution to taller cheating ladders is not taller walls. The solution is to change how we are assessing — something classroom assessment researchers have been advocating for long before the onset of AI.

    Just as we don’t spend thousands of dollars on “did-their-sister-write-this” detectors, schools should not rest easy simply because AI detection companies have a product to sell. If educators want to make valid inferences about what students know and can do, assessment practices are needed that emphasize ongoing formative assessment (like drafts, works-in-progress and repeated observations of student learning).

    These need to be rooted in authentic contexts relevant to students’ lives and their learning that centre comprehensive academic integrity as a shared responsibility of students, teachers and system leaders — not just a mantra of “don’t cheat and if we catch you we will punish you.”

    Let’s spend less on flawed detection tools and more on supporting teachers to develop their assessment capacity across the board.

    Michael Holden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. AI-detection software isn’t the solution to classroom cheating — assessment has to shift – https://theconversation.com/ai-detection-software-isnt-the-solution-to-classroom-cheating-assessment-has-to-shift-246102

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: USAID’s apparent demise and the US withdrawal from WHO put millions of lives worldwide at risk and imperil US national security

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Nicole Hassoun, Professor of Philosophy, Binghamton University, State University of New York

    USAID was established by President John F. Kennedy in 1961 as a way to consolidate existing foreign aid programs. JAM STA ROSA/AFP via Getty Images

    On his first day in office, Jan. 20, 2025, President Donald Trump began a drastic reshaping of the United States’ role in global health as part of the first 26 executive orders of his new term.

    He initiated the process of withdrawing the U.S. from the World Health Organization, which works to promote and advance global health, following through on his first attempt in 2020. He also ordered staff members of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to cut off all communications with WHO representatives.

    In his first week, Trump also issued a stop-work order pending a 90-day review on nearly all programs of the United States Agency for International Development, or USAID.

    Many experts view this as a first step in dismantling the organization, which facilitates global efforts to improve health and education and to alleviate poverty. The sweeping move left aid workers and the people who depend on them in a panic and interrupted dozens of clinical trials across the world.

    President Trump’s executive order sparked legal action from international health care organizations, resulting in a federal judge ordering a temporary halt to the Trump administration’s freeze on foreign aid. Ultimately, that legal action was unsuccessful.

    On Feb. 23, the Trump administration put nearly all of USAID’s 4,700 workers on paid administrative leave globally and stated that it would be terminating 1,600 of those positions.

    Most recently, on Feb. 25, a federal judge ordered the Trump administration to allow some USAID funding to resume and required that it pay all of its invoices for work completed before the foreign aid freeze went into effect.

    I am the executive director of the Global Health Impact project, an organization that aims to advance access to essential medicines in part by evaluating their health consequences around the world, and a researcher focusing on global health and development ethics and policy.

    In my view and that of many other public health scholars, closing down USAID will imperil our national security and put millions of lives at risk.

    Because of the USAID stop-work order, 500,000 metric tons of food are at risk of spoiling.

    20 million with HIV treated

    USAID works with both nongovernmental organizations and private companies to help distribute medicines and vaccines around the world. The agency also helps improve government policies and invest in research and development to contain and address epidemics and pandemics.

    Starting in the late 1960s, for instance, USAID helped lead the effort to eliminate smallpox and has also helped fight polio and other devastating diseases over the past six decades.

    The smallpox pandemic was one of the worst of all time – it killed one-third of the people infected, causing an estimated 300 million to 500 million deaths worldwide in the 20th century. By contrast, COVID-19 killed less than 1% of those infected.

    These efforts have brought immense financial as well as health benefits to the U.S. and the rest of the world. Some economists estimate that the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, created in 1988, alone saved the world more than US$27 billion as of 2017, and that it will save a total of $40 billion to $50 billion by 2035.

    USAID also plays an important role in promoting global health equity. The agency works to increase access to primary health care, combat hunger and strengthen health systems – ultimately saving lives. In addition, USAID has provided a great deal of funding to fight infectious diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis and HIV.

    For instance, the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or PEPFAR, provides treatment for 20 million people living with HIV in Africa. Trump’s federal aid freeze has halted funding for PEPFAR projects.

    While the limited waiver under which the agency must now operate means some PEPFAR activities may eventually resume, many are now left without federal funding indefinitely. Unless another organization fills the gap, millions will die without USAID assistance.

    A 2022 photo of men in Afghanistan lining up to receive a monthly food ration, largely supplied by USAID.
    Scott Peterson/Getty Images News via Getty Images

    Mistakes made

    This is not to deny that USAID has made some grave errors in its history.

    For instance, USAID provided significant funding to the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire) during the murderous regime of Mobutu Sese Seko, who was in power from 1965 to 1997.

    But USAID also has done an immense amount of good. For instance, it has helped contain the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo since 2018. USAID’s work in preventing epidemics from spreading helps people everywhere, including in the U.S.

    If anything, there is a strong argument for increasing USAID funding. China has invested heavily in Asia and Africa through its Belt and Road Initiative, which is an attempt to recreate ancient trade routes by investing in roads, trains and ports. Some researchers argue that this has shifted diplomatic relations in favor of China. They believe that if the U.S. does not make similar investments and instead cuts foreign aid, it will affect the United States’ ability to achieve its foreign policy objectives.

    Similarly, there is a strong argument for increasing U.S. support for the WHO rather than withdrawing from the organization.

    Trump’s withdrawal order cites what he sees as the organization’s failures in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic as the rationale. But the WHO helped lead efforts to accelerate vaccine development and distribution, and retrospective reports claim that even more deaths could have been avoided with greater international cooperation.

    While dismantling USAID will cause irreparable harm to global health, these actions taken together are likely to deal a devastating blow to efforts to protect Americans and everyone else in the world from sickness and death.

    Alyssa Figueroa, an undergraduate student at Binghamton University, contributed to this article.

    Nicole Hassoun has received funding for research from the World Health Organization and the United Nations. She is the executive director of Global Health Impact (global-health-impact.org) which participates in the Pandemic Action Network.

    – ref. USAID’s apparent demise and the US withdrawal from WHO put millions of lives worldwide at risk and imperil US national security – https://theconversation.com/usaids-apparent-demise-and-the-us-withdrawal-from-who-put-millions-of-lives-worldwide-at-risk-and-imperil-us-national-security-249260

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Trump’s Gaza reconstruction proposal is unlikely to work

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ali Asgary, Professor, Disaster & Emergency Management, Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies & Director, CIFAL York, York University, Canada

    There have been many conversations around U.S. President Donald Trump’s Gaza proposal to permanently displace Palestinians from Gaza to neighbouring countries and turn the strip into a luxury resort development. Criticisms of Trump’s comments often focus on the proposal’s illegality, immorality and impracticality.

    However, little has been discussed from the perspective of post-disaster and post-war reconstruction. Post-conflict reconstruction, as part of post-disaster reconstruction studies, has a very long history, scholarly literature, lessons learned and is one of the well-studied phases of disaster and emergency management.

    Where to rebuild

    When it comes to where to rebuild or reconstruct after disasters, including human-made disasters such as war and conflict, there are three main options:

    1) reconstruction in the original location;

    2) reconstruction in a new location; and

    3) reconstruction and integration in existing settlements.

    Each of these approaches has its advantages, disadvantages and challenges. One of the key principles of post-disaster recovery and reconstruction is minimizing post-disaster relocation.

    While a significant majority of post-disaster reconstruction happens in the original locations, there has been reconstruction and resettlement to new locations and beside or inside existing settlements.

    For example, after the 1974 conflict in Cyprus, the city of Famagusta was abandoned and residents were relocated to new areas. Relocation after the 1995 volcano eruption that buried Plymouth in Montserrat is another example. After the 1990 Manjil earthquake in Iran, many villages were relocated and rebuilt in new locations.

    Rebuilding in the original location

    Studies show that reconstruction in the original location is generally the most preferred and effective option. People impacted and displaced by war and disasters usually prefer to live in their original community.

    In some cases, reconstruction in the original location may still require some forms of temporary resettlement. This temporary relocation is a preferred option when the affected areas do not have enough space or ability to support the population during the reconstruction period, particularly during debris removal and infrastructure restoration.

    Past reconstruction efforts in developed and developing countries, show that recovery and reconstruction are more effective, democratic and faster when the impacted population is in charge of the reconstruction process, and remain close to their damaged homes.

    The closer a temporary settlement is to the reconstruction site, the better. Proximity allows the impacted population to participate effectively, monitor and benefit from the reconstruction process without distance and accessibility barriers.

    Rebuilding in new locations

    Reconstruction in a new location is usually considered as one of the last options when rebuilding in the original place is not possible due to various hazards like landslides, earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, flooding or volcanos.

    This usually occurs when mitigation measures are neither possible nor feasible. This option requires relocating the impacted population and rebuilding everything from scratch. Its success very much depends on the availability of land, resources and the willingness of the impacted population to relocate.

    Even when relocation is the only viable option, impacted people must be fully involved and given discretion regarding their place of relocation. Involuntary resettlement programs are impracticable. Even when the population is displaced, studies show that people return to their original homes if they can.

    Rebuilding near existing settlements is an extension of this option except that instead of rebuilding in a new location, reconstruction happens beside existing settlements to minimize infrastructure costs.

    This option can still be challenging. Implementation can be very complex even when new settlements are in the same country or area. Reintegrating people into a new place, even when they are willing to be relocated, requires many livelihood support initiatives, land availability, legal frameworks for land distribution and dispute resolution.

    Rebuilding options for Gaza

    Trump’s proposal is close to that last option, with three major differences. The first difference is that there is no consultation with Palestinians in Gaza.

    The second difference is that the impacted population will be forcefully and involuntarily relocated to settlements in other countries (Egypt and Jordan).

    The third difference is that the United States would “own” Gaza, and rebuild it for other purposes and uses, not for the benefit of Palestinians.

    As mentioned above, one key justification for rebuilding in a new location is that the original place is not permanently safe. Trump’s proposal assumes that Gaza is not safe for Palestinians but somehow safe for others.

    Post-disaster and conflict reconstruction is not just a physical reconstruction project. Rather, it is a complex, multidimensional process, with potentially very high negative impact if not properly planned and implemented.

    Top-down approaches in post-disaster recovery and reconstruction often fail because these approaches ignore the complexity of the built environment, the local conditions, and the needs of the affected population.

    Displacing entire populations, their economic activities and their social networks and relations can have significant impacts — direct and indirect — on the population and on governments. Community relocation fails because it disrupts social networks, and increases negative sentiments and dissatisfaction with living conditions in new location.

    Post-war reconstruction programmes must be multi-dimensional and based on a clear understanding of local conditions and careful consultation with the affected people. The alternative to large-scale resettlement is to reduce the risks people face in their current location.

    In the past, international solidarity has played an important role in reconstruction. Such solidarity increasingly exists for the Palestinians of Gaza, and with that, rebuilding in the same location can still be a viable and preferred option.

    Ali Asgary does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Trump’s Gaza reconstruction proposal is unlikely to work – https://theconversation.com/why-trumps-gaza-reconstruction-proposal-is-unlikely-to-work-249680

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: More than just a game: How sports are reflecting Canada-U.S. tensions

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Noah Eliot Vanderhoeven, PhD Candidate, Political Science, Western University

    Canada emerged victorious in the 4 Nations Face-off hockey tournament on Feb. 20, but the event was overshadowed by growing political tensions between Canada and the United States.

    In the lead-up to the final game, American fans booed the Canadian national anthem, likely in response to Canadian fans booing the American national anthem ahead of a game between the two teams on Feb. 15.

    This was not the first recent airing of grievances from Canadian fans at a sporting event. Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of tariffs against Canada and repeated calls for Canada to become the 51st state, fans at a Toronto Raptors game and Ottawa Senators game booed the American national anthem.



    Read more:
    How Donald Trump’s attacks on Canada are stoking a new Canadian nationalism

    Despite the proposed tariffs being postponed for 30 days, Trump’s antagonistic vision for Canada-U.S. relations has stoked anti-American sentiments among Canadians, including calls to boycott American goods and a deteriorating belief in close Canada-U.S. relations.

    Those anti-American sentiments boiled over again when Canada faced the U.S. in Montréal, showcasing how sport can be used as an expression of nationalism — especially at a time of increased tensions between the two countries.

    Why sports matter politically

    It’s not surprising that sport has become an arena for nationalist political rhetoric. Sport possesses powerful symbolism that can be exploited to great affect in forming a coherent national identity.

    In this way, sporting events are a way fandoms can reinforce national identity as an objective symbol that connects to primitive forms of national ideology.

    Sport is also a powerful psychological setting for national rhetoric. A person’s social identity, or how they see themselves in relation to others, can be reinforced through sport. This can happen, for instance, when someone views themselves as a member of a team and celebrates their success, or views a rival team or country in a negative light after a loss.

    Additionally, the outcome of a game can boost in-group favouritism, which can influence whether consumers buy goods from a specific vendor.

    Nationalism versus patriotism

    Generally, research suggests sports reinforce a national in-group identity that is more patriotic than nationalistic. However, the vitriol Canadians have expressed during the American national anthem leans towards expressing nationalist views rather than patriotic ones.

    Patriotism typically focuses on why a country is great without necessarily disparaging outsiders or other countries. Nationalism, on the other hand, tends to play up why one’s country is great while vilifying another country or group.

    Trump’s focus on using tariffs to bully Canada into increasing security at the border has undoubtedly soured relations between the two countries. If Trump decides to flex the United States’ capacity to be a bully in U.S.-Canadian relations, Canada is stuck with limited options.

    But are Canadians playing right into Donald Trump’s hand by leaning into an adversarial relationship?

    How Trump uses sports for political gain

    Trump has a history of using major sporting events to his political benefit. During his last presidential campaign, he attended the Army-Navy football game and became the first sitting president to attend the recent Super Bowl in New Orleans.

    Trump also considered attending the 4 Nations final between the U.S. and Canada in Boston, but couldn’t attend due to a scheduled speech with U.S. governors. Still, he made his presence felt by calling the American team the morning before the game to wish them luck.

    Looking ahead, Trump may continue to use international sporting events to assert his vision for U.S. relations with Canada and Mexico.

    In January, Trump invited Gianni Infantino, the head of FIFA, to his inauguration, just as preparations have begun for the 2026 World Cup, which is to be hosted by Canada, Mexico and the U.S.

    With Infantino and Trump becoming increasingly friendly, it seems likely Trump will use the upcoming World Cup to influence North American relations. At the very least, he will likely try to insert himself into its coverage.

    Trump using sport to reinforce his image

    Beyond politics, Trump uses sports to play into his crafted image as a hyper-masculine man. This image has played a large part in Trump’s popularity among young men and helped him win a second term as president.

    Yet Trump does not necessarily fit the masculine norms his supporters lionize. Trump is fairly tall, which has been shown to be preferred among American voters. However, unlike past presidents such as Dwight D. Eisenhower and Richard Nixon, who played college football, Trump’s athletic background is limited to high school football.

    Nor did Trump serve in the military like previous presidents John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan, both of whom served in the Second World War. Trump, by contrast, avoided service during the Vietnam war for medical and educational reasons.

    Despite a lack of traditional masculine bonafides, Trump has shown an ability to use sporting events for his political gain. He has used sporting events as potent media environments to insert his talking points and burnish his masculine image.

    In the end, the boos from Canadian fans may be music to Donald Trump’s ears. He wants to be hated by outsiders so he can turn around to his supporters and say that the U.S. is under attack at its borders. He wants the sporting accomplishments of the American men’s teams to reflect on his strength.

    It can still go against him, as we saw Thursday night with Canada beating the U.S. in overtime. Justin Trudeau wasted no time using that moment to respond with strong rhetoric in a tweet.

    What happened on the ice was out of Trump’s control. But he used the event to serve his own goals, sowing greater divisiveness across borders. The shadow of his combative rhetoric loomed large over the entire event.

    Noah Eliot Vanderhoeven does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. More than just a game: How sports are reflecting Canada-U.S. tensions – https://theconversation.com/more-than-just-a-game-how-sports-are-reflecting-canada-u-s-tensions-250385

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Donald Trump is a relentless bullshitter

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Tim Kenyon, Professor, Faculty of Humanities, Brock University

    There have been many questions raised about the intentions behind Donald Trump’s spate of radical public statements about Canada, in which he claims trade deficits amount to subsidies, massive amounts of fentanyl are flowing across the border and the country should become the 51st American state, among other things.

    The U.S. president’s comments have fuelled speculation about what he means when he makes these kinds of false claims — or whether he means anything at all.

    After all, rounded to the nearest percentage point, zero per cent of illicit fentanyl entering the U.S. comes from Canada, trade deficits are not subsidies and annexing Canada is an absurd proposal.

    So why say things that are so untrue?

    Is Trump serious about any of this?

    Ignore Trump? Or fear him?

    The aggregate opinion seems to be both an unhelpful no and a yes, so the answer remains unclear.

    If we take every provocation seriously, we’re falling for the “flood the zone” strategy as Trump spews out outlandish claims as a form of distraction.

    If we shrug off his claims, we’re ignoring the potential danger.

    But there are patterns and incentives behind Trump’s flouting of basic communicative norms. One illustrative example dates back to 2018 talks with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, when Trump complained about the U.S. trade deficit with Canada. Later, he told prospective donors in Missouri that he’d made this claim up on the spot.

    Why make up a claim like that? And, having done so, why admit and even brag about it, and then renew this knowingly false claim six years later?

    My colleague Jennifer Saul and I are scholars in the political philosophy of language. We’re among those who cite this example of Trump bullshit in our work on bullshit in authoritarian political speech and how bullshit can succeed even though everyone recognizes that it is, in fact, bullshit.



    Read more:
    Bullshit is everywhere. Here’s how to deal with it at work

    Why Trump bullshits

    Our notion of bullshit is a refinement of the term that was the subject of American philosopher Harry Frankfurt’s seminal 2005 book On Bullshit.

    Most liars care enough about the truth to try to conceal it. But simply not caring either way is a different vice, which Frankfurt called bullshitting.

    An example would be claiming a trade deficit without having any idea whether that’s true or false. Other examples include uttering falsehoods that are so obvious they couldn’t possibly be intended to deceive anyone.

    Really obvious bullshit can succeed politically, we proposed, because there are many audiences in mass communication. Bullshit targeted at Audience A can be a big hit with Audience B, if B thinks A deserves it.

    Then it becomes a display of power over A, with B enjoying the spectacle. This overt bullshitting lends itself to authoritarian politics for someone cultivating a strongman image. It marks an opponent for disrespectful treatment, and advertises that the bullshitter cannot be held to account.

    So Trump’s admission that he bullshitted Trudeau in 2018 was a successful strategy because he revealed it to a sympathetic audience, who got to see themselves as part of the performance and not as its target. Asking: “Does Trump really mean this?” is often less revealing than: “How does this promote Trump’s image as an authority figure, and to which audience?”

    Similarly, Trump falsely remarked in 2019 that Hurricane Dorian’s projected path included Alabama. He responded to fact-checking by showing an official storm track map that he literally altered by hand, with a marker.

    Such a ridiculous invention couldn’t be meant to deceive. But it showed Trump’s base, many of whom distrust mainstream information sources, that he couldn’t be made to back down for reporters, no matter the facts.

    Some claims appear deceptive lies to one audience and bullshit to another, like Trump’s recent claim that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a dictator who started the war in Ukraine.

    Some audiences might believe it. Others will see it as false and designed to be deceptive, yet recognize it as a threat to treat Ukraine as an aggressor with American demands for Ukraine’s rare earth minerals at stake.



    Read more:
    Ukraine’s natural resources are at centre stage in the ongoing war, and will likely remain there

    Credibility matters in unexpected ways

    Even conservative pundits initially worried that Trump’s propensity to bullshit would diminish the finite resource that is credibility.

    They didn’t recognize that credibility is a dubious virtue in strongman politics. Its absence can even be an asset. Acting without credibility is a chance to flex — to show that you can compel others to take you seriously whether they believe you or not.

    These incentives link frivolous outbursts of bullshit with very serious doubling-downs. Trump first spoke about Canada becoming the 51st state in a meeting with Trudeau in late November so offhandedly that it was not immediately mentioned in news reports.

    Once Fox News seized upon it, Trudeau was forced to publicly dismiss the comment as a joke.

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida in November 2024. Trudeau apparently thought Trump was just bullshitting when he made mention of Canada becoming a 51st state during the dinner.
    (X/@JustinTrudeau)

    A great deal more commentary revealed liberal-leaning Canadians and Americans were angry and even frightened by this sort of talk — conditions that made it attractive for Trump to double down rather than back down.



    Read more:
    Canada as a 51st state? Republicans would never win another general election

    Combing through Trump’s speech and actions towards Canada to discover what he really means may just be an attempt to “sane-wash” them; meaning trying to figure out if they reflect a stable and sincere attitude, or even a stable and insincere negotiating strategy.

    What makes Trump’s bullshit so dangerous is that it rarely reflects fixed, coherent meanings or convictions. It lurches from triviality to deadly seriousness, depending on how his various audiences provide the approval and the outrage Trump seeks for his performances of strength.

    Tim Kenyon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Donald Trump is a relentless bullshitter – https://theconversation.com/why-donald-trump-is-a-relentless-bullshitter-249896

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How hockey’s politics played out at the 4 Nations Face-Off Tournament

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Braeden McKenzie, Postdoctoral Fellow & Equity Data and Research Analyst, University of Victoria

    The National Hockey League’s 4 Nations Face-Off tournament captured attention across North America as hockey’s first best-on-best competition since the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics.

    The tournament, which featured competitive round-robin games between Canada, the United States, Finland and Sweden, was a massive success for the league. The final game between Canada and the U.S. averaged 9.25 million viewers with Canada defeating the United States 3-2 in overtime.

    The recent rise in political tensions between Canada and the U.S., amid continued threats of a trade war, have made their way onto the ice. Canadian fans in Montréal loudly booed the Star-Spangled Banner before both of Team USA’s round robin games.

    In response, Bill Guerin, Team USA’s general manager, encouraged U.S. President Donald Trump to attend the championship game in Boston. For his part, Trump used the tournament to reiterate his threat to annex Canada in a Truth Social post.

    An apolitical image

    Historically, hockey has been marketed as an apolitical space. The culture celebrates players that demonstrate a willingness to do their talking on the ice, praising their quiet reverence for the game’s traditions above all else.

    Superstar players like Gordie Howe, Bobby Orr, Wayne Gretzky and Sidney Crosby have been admired for being modest, respectful and even bland in their conduct, approach to the game and leadership style.

    Perhaps unsurprisingly, when players and coaches for the American and Canadian teams were asked about the political context the tournament had been thrust into, most reiterated that hockey should not be political and instead should operate as a space for people to escape.

    However, such notions belie a culture of masculinity that is decidedly white, and which ingrains expectations about tradition, professionalism and respect and works to uphold hockey’s political status quo.

    Fans boo American national anthem ahead of a showdown between Canada and the United States at the 4 Nations Face-Off. (The Canadian Press)

    Hockey’s preferred political acts

    In reality, hockey has always been a political space. Acts like playing national anthems, saluting flags or honouring military service are all inherently political. So, too, are displays of gigantic national flags in stadiums or arenas, military jet flyovers and public subsidies for professional sports facilities.

    It is noteworthy that those political acts are seen as acceptable in sports, while others — like booing or kneeling during an anthem — have faced widespread criticism from players, coaches and management.

    Performances of nationalism and militarism are somehow seen as apolitical, while expressions of protest are unpatriotic and too political. Such distinctions are less about preserving hockey as an apolitical space and more about maintaining unity and consensus in support of the brand of politics that is celebrated throughout the culture.

    Because the game’s history is largely based in white masculinities and traditions, political positions which reflect those ideologies (such as Don Cherry’s brand of nostalgic working-class populism and the MAGA movement’s views on nationalism, family structure or race) have been whole-heartedly accepted within hockey culture.

    A false neutrality

    Framing hockey as somehow neutral or apolitical simply reinforces the politics of the status quo, which benefits those in power and is, in itself, a clear expression of politics.

    Wayne Gretzky, perhaps Canada’s best ever player, has become an example of this very political reality. Gretzky recently faced criticism for attending the U.S. election night celebrations at Mar-A-Lago and Trump’s inauguration. Trump himself has suggested that Gretzky could be Canada’s governor if it becomes the 51st state.

    P.K. Subban, a gold medal-winning Canadian defenseman, was also criticized after he tweeted a screenshot of Trump’s Truth Social post, suggesting Trump may make the difference in the final game’s result.

    While many Canadians might disapprove of Gretzky attending the inauguration and Subban’s post, the acts are not likely to receive any major push-back within hockey itself (with the exception of former Canadian NHL player Akim Aliu calling out Subban).

    Having historically developed as a symbol of white masculinity, hockey will continue to represent a haven for ideologies rooted in inequity, division and extreme nationalism. While silence from players and coaches throughout the tournament is not wholly ill-intentioned, it without question represents complicity in the face of growing hatred, extremism and political turmoil.

    In contrast, acts of resistance or dissent are likely to continue to be cast off as too political by management, coaches and players. These individuals seem fine with politics in sport — just not politics that challenge their own.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How hockey’s politics played out at the 4 Nations Face-Off Tournament – https://theconversation.com/how-hockeys-politics-played-out-at-the-4-nations-face-off-tournament-250602

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Nutriset, a French company, has helped alleviate hunger and create jobs in some of the world’s poorest places

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Nicolas Dahan, Professor of Management, Seton Hall University

    Michel Lescanne, founder and president of the French company Nutriset, holds Plumpy’nut packets in 2005. Robert Francois/AFP via Getty Images

    About 19 million children under 5 around the world suffer from severe acute malnutrition every year. This life-threatening condition kills 400,000 of them – that’s one child every 10 seconds.

    These numbers are staggering, especially because a lifesaving treatment has existed for nearly three decades: “ready-to-use therapeutic food.”

    Nutriset, a French company, was founded by Michel Lescanne. He was one of two scientists who invented this product in 1996. A sticky peanut butter paste branded Plumpy’nut, it’s enriched with vitamins and minerals and comes in packets that require no refrigeration or preparation.

    Health care professionals were quickly convinced of its promise. What was harder to figure out was how to manufacture as many packets as possible while cutting costs. In 2008, ready-to-use therapeutic food producers like Nutriset charged US$60 for one box of 150 packets – the number needed to treat one severely malnourished child for the 6-8 weeks needed for their recovery.

    In a study we published in the Journal of Management Studies in October 2024, we explained how the international agencies, nongovernmental organizations, activists and for-profit companies involved in the product’s distribution managed to resolve a public controversy over the use of Nutriset’s patent and its for-profit business model.

    Contrary to the expectations of activists and many humanitarian NGOs, this for-profit company managed to reduce its prices down to $39 per box of Plumpy’nut packets by 2019 and keep them consistently lower than any nonprofit or for-profit competitors could, all the while enforcing its patent rights.

    We interviewed Jan Komrska, a pharmacist then serving as the ready-to-use therapeutic food procurement manager at UNICEF, the United Nations agency for children; Tiddo von Schoen-Angerer, a pediatrician who was leading the access to medicines campaign at Doctors Without Borders, a medical charity; and Thomas Couaillet, a Nutriset executive. We also studied documents issued over the course of a decade to find out why this company’s unusual approach to intellectual property protection was so successful.

    Helping franchisees in low-income countries get started

    Nutriset and humanitarian organizations disagreed at the start over how to proceed with the production of ready-to-use therapeutic food.

    Doctors Without Borders at first accused Nutriset of behaving like a big drugmaker, shielding itself from competition by aggressively enforcing its patents to charge excessively high prices. The nongovernmental organization demanded that Nutriset allow any manufacturer to make its patented packets, without any compensation for that intellectual property.

    By 2012, Nutriset had changed course. It had stopped being almost the sole producer of ready-to-use therapeutic food and instead allowed licensees and franchisee partners, chiefly located in low-income countries, to make the packets without having to pay any royalties. It did, however, make an exception for the United States. It allowed Edesia, a Rhode Island-based nonprofit, to become a Nutriset franchisee.

    It also provided these smaller producers with seed funding and technical advice.

    Nutriset is still the world’s largest ready-to-use therapeutic food producer, we have determined through our research. It’s responsible for about 30% to 40% of the world’s annual production, down from more than 90% in 2008.

    There are some other U.S. manufacturers, such as Tabatchnick Fine Foods, but they aren’t Nutriset partners.

    Nutriset produced this video in 2012 to explain the scale of hunger around the world and how its ready-to-use therapeutic food packets can help.

    Threatening legal action

    At the same time, the company continued to threaten to take legal action against potential rivals located in developed countries that were replicating their recipe without authorization. Usually, cease-and-desist letters were sufficient.

    Nutriset implemented this strategy to ward off competition from big multinational corporations that might try to establish their brands in new markets, gaining a foothold before flooding them with imported ultraprocessed food. A big risk, had that occurred, would have been less breastfeeding for newborns and the disruption of local diets.

    Nutriset’s strategy of opening access to its patent selectively has enabled UNICEF to double the share of packets it buys from producers located in the Global South.

    UNICEF, the world’s biggest buyer of ready-to-use therapeutic food, bought less than one-third of its supplies from those nations in 2011. That share climbed to two-thirds in 2022.

    Nutriset’s reliance on local franchisees has helped create over 1,000 jobs in hunger-stricken regions while strengthening the supply chain and reducing the carbon emissions of transportation, according to UNICEF.

    Nutriset’s creative patent strategy also helped its partner producers in low-income countries, which include nonprofit and for-profit ventures, compete with large corporations in developed countries by the time its patent expired in 2018.

    In this instance, a for-profit company not only managed to keep its prices lower than its competitors, including nonprofits, but used its patent to support economic development in developing countries by shielding startup producers from international competition.

    As a result of these successes, we found that nongovernmental organizations eventually stopped criticizing the French company and recognized that high prices were actually not due to Nutriset’s patent policy but rather to global prices of the packets’ ingredients.

    In recognition of its contributions and innovation, Nutriset won the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office’s Patents for Humanity Award in 2015.

    Offering a cheap, convenient and effective treatment

    One of the biggest advantages of ready-to-use therapeutic food is that parents or other caregivers can give it to their kids at home or on the go. That’s more convenient and cheaper than the alternative: several months of hospitalization where children receive a nutrient-dense liquid called “therapeutic milk.”

    The at-home treatment works most of the time. More than 80% of the children who get three daily food packets recover within two months.

    Severe acute malnutrition deaths remain high because historically only 25% to 50% of children suffering from it get treated with ready-to-use therapeutic food, due to insufficient funding. The treatment programs are run by governments, UNICEF and other international agencies, and NGOs such as Doctors Without Borders.

    USAID’s funding role

    The U.S. government spent about $200 million in 2024 through the U.S. Agency for International Development on ready-to-use therapeutic food, enough packets to treat 3.9 million children. That’s nearly as much as UNICEF, which treats about 5 million children annually.

    It’s unclear whether the Trump administration, which is trying to dismantle USAID, will discontinue its funding of ready-to-use therapeutic food that the U.S. government has purchased exclusively from U.S. manufacturers with U.S.-sourced ingredients.

    At a time when the flow of development aid from several wealthy countries is declining, the precedent Nutriset set suggests that humanitarian organizations, by teaming up with international agencies, governments and for-profit companies, can help drive down the costs of saving lives threatened by hunger while increasing the nutritional autonomy of the Global South.

    But the funding for ready-to-use therapeutic food and its distribution has to come from somewhere, whether it is from governments, foundations or other donors.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Nutriset, a French company, has helped alleviate hunger and create jobs in some of the world’s poorest places – https://theconversation.com/how-nutriset-a-french-company-has-helped-alleviate-hunger-and-create-jobs-in-some-of-the-worlds-poorest-places-249258

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How the Victorians started the modern health obsession with collagen

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michelle Spear, Professor of Anatomy, University of Bristol

    Dream79/Shutterstock

    Shimmering, wobbling and painstakingly prepared, jelly was a staple of elite Victorian dining tables. But beneath its elegant presentation lay a deeper significance – one that reveals much about the era’s understanding of bone, health and scientific progress.

    By examining what jelly meant to the Victorians, we gain a fascinating insight into how food, science, and social status were entwined, and why our modern fascination with bone broth and collagen supplements is nothing new.

    To the Victorians, food was not merely sustenance but spectacle, and few dishes displayed culinary prowess as effectively as jelly.

    The ability to produce a flawless, quivering mould showed not only a cook’s technical skill but also a household’s refinement and affluence. A beautifully set table featuring jewel-toned jellies and savoury aspics signified sophistication, wealth and control over one’s domestic sphere.

    Despite its seemingly effortless appearance, jelly was among the most labour-intensive dishes a Victorian cook could prepare. Before the advent of commercially available gelatin, creating the perfect jelly required hours of patient work, beginning with the extraction of gelatin from animal bones.

    Beneath the quivering surface of a Victorian jelly lies a remarkable structural conversion that begins deep within bone.

    The key to jelly is collagen, the most abundant protein in the body and a fundamental component of bone. Collagen provides bone with tensile strength and flexibility, working alongside hydroxyapatite, a crystalline form of calcium phosphate, which lends bone its rigidity.

    In its natural state, collagen exists as a tightly wound triple-helix structure – a molecular arrangement that resists breakdown under normal conditions. However, through prolonged exposure to heat and water, this resilient protein undergoes hydrolysis, breaking apart into gelatin — a substance capable of setting liquids into the delicate, tremulous form so prized by the Victorians.

    The process begins with the slow simmering of bones, a practice familiar to both culinary and medical traditions.

    When bones are boiled in water over extended periods, heat disrupts the hydrogen bonds stabilising the collagen fibrils, causing them to unravel. This process, known as thermal denaturation, leads to the gradual breakdown of collagen’s highly ordered triple helix, transforming it into smaller, soluble protein fragments.

    The longer the bones are boiled, the more collagen dissolves, releasing a rich, proteinaceous broth — the precursor to both gelatin and the contemporary trend of bone broth, a healthy soup made by boiling animal bones.

    As hydrolysis progresses, collagen loses its fibrous structure, forming a loose network of protein chains that remain suspended in the liquid. Unlike intact collagen, which is rigid and insoluble, these denatured fragments possess the unique ability to trap water molecules within a gel matrix when cooled.

    This transformation is the defining characteristic of gelatin: once heated, it dissolves readily into a liquid, but upon cooling, the reformation of weak intermolecular bonds allows it to set into a flexible, semi-solid state.

    The final stages of gelatin extraction involve purification and clarification. Victorian kitchens employed traditional methods of refining the broth, often using egg whites to bind to impurities, which were then skimmed from the surface. Once sufficiently clarified, the liquid was left to cool, allowing the gelatin to set into its characteristic wobbly structure.

    Unlike modern commercial gelatin, which undergoes industrial processing for uniformity and ease of use, Victorian gelatin varied in strength and purity depending on the bones used and the duration of boiling.

    Some bones yielded a stronger gelatin than others, influencing both its setting properties and clarity. Calves’ feet were among the most prized sources, rich in collagen and capable of producing a firm, well-setting jelly.

    In contrast, ox bones, though commonly used for broths, contained less collagen and required prolonged boiling to extract enough gelatin, often resulting in a weaker set.

    Boiling time was critical in determining gelatin strength. A long, slow simmer (12–24 hours) was optimal. Shorter boiling times, often used for poultry or lighter broths (and lighter bones), resulted in weaker gelatin. However, overboiling (beyond 24–36 hours) risked breaking down the protein structure too much, preventing the gelatin from setting properly.

    Collagen and health

    The link between gelatin and bone health was not lost on Victorian society. Medical texts of the period frequently recommended gelatin-rich broths for invalids, children, and the elderly, reinforcing the belief that consuming gelatin could replenish and strengthen the body’s own systems.

    This intuitive logic mirrors contemporary claims that bone broth supports joint health, digestion and skin elasticity. However, while broth provides collagen and minerals, scientific evidence for its direct functional benefits remains limited.

    Collagen from food is broken down during digestion and does not directly restore cartilage or connective tissue. Despite its nutrient content, bone broth is no more beneficial than other protein sources, with its resurgence driven more by slow food and wellness trends than firm scientific backing.

    In many ways, the gelatinous dishes that graced Victorian dining tables were as much a product of scientific curiosity as they were of culinary tradition. The transformation of bone into jelly encapsulated an era fascinated by both anatomy and domestic mastery, offering a rare but not exclusive intersection between the dinner table and the laboratory.

    Michelle Spear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How the Victorians started the modern health obsession with collagen – https://theconversation.com/how-the-victorians-started-the-modern-health-obsession-with-collagen-249215

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s claim that US debt calculation may be fraudulent could put the economy in danger

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gabriella Legrenzi, Senior Lecturer in Economics and Finance, Keele University

    Deacons docs/Shutterstock

    The US president, Donald Trump, is challenging official figures around the country’s federal debt, suggesting possible fraud in its calculation. The president’s remarks have added a controversial twist to an issue that is both complex and consequential for the United States. And it has implications for the global economy and financial markets too.

    US federal debt is the total amount of money the US government owes from years of borrowing to cover budget deficits (spending beyond its revenues). Over time, this amount has grown significantly, becoming a focal point for political debates and economic forecasts.

    The US debt clock indicates an amount of debt of above US$36 trillion (£28.5 trillion), corresponding to US$107,227 (£84,795) per US citizen.

    This figure is based on the US total public debt series. It is undeniable that the US debt has grown remarkably since the 2008 recession, with a further acceleration during the COVID pandemic. This brings the US federal debt in at around 121% of the size of the entire economy (GDP). For comparison, the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility puts British national debt at 99.4% of GDP in 2024.

    This pattern is common across advanced economies, given the necessity to spend to support their economies during recessions.

    Trump has also claimed that, as the result of this alleged fraud, the US might have less debt than was thought. Potential fraud aside, it is common knowledge that the headline debt figure overstates the amount of federal debt. This is because it includes debt that one part of the US government owes to another part, as well as debt held by the Federal Reserve Banks.

    Subtracting these debts from the US federal debt data gives us the debt held by the public. This is much lower but it still shows a similar growing pattern over time.

    How US national debt has grown as a share of GDP:

    The conventional wisdom (courtesy of Mr Micawber, a character in Charles Dickens’ novel David Copperfield) is that an income greater than expenditure equals happiness, while the opposite results in misery. But this does not necessarily apply to public debt.

    This is ultimately a debt we have with ourselves (and our future generations). What really matters is its long-term sustainability, meaning that the debt-to-GDP ratio is not following an explosive pattern. This kind of pattern could increase the risk premium (effectively the interest) demanded by investors, with a negative impact on private investments and growth prospects. Also, it potentially raises the risk of default.

    Our research has shown that there is no universally accepted threshold where debt becomes unsustainable. Instead, each case requires context-specific analysis looking at macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation and unemployment, financial crises as well as the (potentially self-fulfilling) market expectations.

    Trump’s take

    Recently, Trump has questioned not only the size of federal debt but also the integrity of the methods used to calculate it, without presenting any evidence. He claims that the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) has uncovered potential fraud. If confirmed, these findings could significantly alter perceptions of the country’s financial position.

    Reports have also highlighted his controversial allegation that the US is “not that rich right now. We owe US$36 trillion … because we let all these nations take advantage of us.” These claims are puzzling, as the large size of US debt reflects decades of fiscal policy decisions in the wake of numerous shocks to the economy. Debt itself is not a cause of alarm for analysts.

    While the amount of US federal debt held by foreign stakeholders has risen over time, it is currently less than 30% of GDP. This is down from an all-time high of 35% during Trump’s first term back in 2020 during the pandemic.

    Of the US federal debt held by foreign countries, the largest amounts are owned by Japan, China, and the UK. Yet, when other countries hold US federal debt, it has nothing to do with “taking advantage” of the US.

    In fact, the US dollar is the world’s dominant vehicle currency. It is on one side of 88% of all trades in the foreign exchange market, which has a global daily turnover of US$7.5 trillion.

    As such, the US benefits from a so-called “exorbitant privilege”. This advantage comes from the international demand for the “safe haven” status of US Treasury securities and the US dollar, and has allowed the US to issue debt at a relatively low interest rate.

    Research suggests that this “safe haven” status of the US dollar has increased the maximum sustainable debt for the US by around 22%. What’s more, it’s estimated to have saved the US government 0.7% of GDP in annual interest payments.

    These advantages rely on the fact that US Treasury bonds are traditionally viewed as risk-free assets. This is particularly the case during times of global financial stress, as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government. The US has a longstanding record of meeting its debt obligations.

    But Trump’s comments risk shaking the confidence of financial markets, leading traders to reassess the reliability of official data and the potential risks associated with US Treasury bonds. Whether truth or tale, such remarks touch on sensitive issues regarding fiscal responsibility and transparency in government.

    Any suggestion that the US government’s debt figures are unreliable could be destabilising. This is because they could call into question the reliability of the US fiscal system among the international investors and foreign governments that hold these securities.

    Much like Trump’s tariff threats, alleging other countries who hold a substantial portion of US federal debt have been opportunistic could be risky.

    The president could end up straining diplomatic bilateral relations with key creditors, which may cause broader uncertainties in global financial markets.

    With Trump in the White House, distinguishing between politically charged rhetoric and fiscal sustainability of the US federal debt will be essential for maintaining trust in the US economy and the health of the global financial system.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s claim that US debt calculation may be fraudulent could put the economy in danger – https://theconversation.com/trumps-claim-that-us-debt-calculation-may-be-fraudulent-could-put-the-economy-in-danger-250538

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The UK farmer protests you probably haven’t heard about

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alex Heffron, PhD Candidate in Geography, Lancaster University

    Fruit pickers and farm workers protesting labour abuses on British farms. Peter Marshall

    Farm owners have besieged parliament with tractors in order to protest new subsidy schemes and inheritance tax arrangements. The farm workers who milk cows, drive machinery and pick crops have grievances too, yet their demands have been less publicised. So, what do they want?

    I am a farmer based in the south-west of Wales and a researcher of farming policy. I recently joined a protest by a group of Latin American farm workers known as “Justice is Not Seasonal”, outside the Home Office in London.

    The group accused soft fruit supplier Haygrove, which operates farms on three continents and supplies veg box delivery schemes including Riverford and Abel and Cole, of presiding over poor living and working conditions, failing to pay workers and charging inflated flight costs for overseas workers. Haygrove has an annual turnover in excess of £50 million.

    Haygrove denies these allegations. In response to a case brought forward by the trade union United Voices of the World and the charity Anti Trafficking and Labour Exploitation Unit, the Home Office has made an interim decision stating there are reasonable grounds that one of the affected workers, Julia Quecaño Casimiro, has been subjected to human trafficking and modern slavery.

    The case tribunal is due to be held soon although it has been a slow, arduous process reaching this point.

    In an article for the BBC, a spokesperson for Haygrove said that Casimiro’s claims were “materially incorrect and misleading”. Haygrove’s practices are audited by third-party organisations including the Home Office, and the company takes “great care” in ensuring fair recruitment and working processes, the spokesperson said.

    Various trade unions and organisations attended the protest, including the Landworkers’ Alliance, United Voices of the World, Independent Workers’ union of Great Britain, Unite and Solidarity Across Land Trades.

    Conspicuously absent was the National Farmers’ Union, which predominantly represents farm owners. This highlights the divergent class interests that exist within terms like “farmer”.

    More workers and more exploitation

    There are 160,000 UK farm workers (as opposed to owners and managers). Of these, some of the most gruelling agricultural work is done by around 45,000 seasonal migrant workers, either in fields in all weather or in the sweltering heat of polytunnels.

    The UK attracts migrant farm workers with six-month temporary visas. A United Nations special rapporteur, Tomoya Obokata, an expert in human rights law and modern slavery, has suggested that the UK is breaking international law with its seasonal work scheme by failing to investigate instances of forced labour. Claims of exploitation and bullying on UK farms are also becoming more common. Meanwhile, in an effort to appease farm managers, the UK government recently announced a five-year extension of this scheme.

    Food and farming organisations have urged the UK to produce more fruit and vegetables as part of a wider shift towards a less carbon-intensive food system.

    To scale up domestic production will require more workers harvesting crops in poor conditions, especially migrant workers who don’t have the same legal rights as British citizens.

    Seasonal migrant workers, for example, cannot bring family members to the UK and have no access to benefits, while their visas are often tied to one place of work which typically includes accommodation which leaves them particularly vulnerable to abuse. A call for increased labour, without a call for improved conditions, could mean more exploitation on British farms.

    Exploitation is not limited to the allegations of a few bad apples either. It is so widespread that it threatens the resilience of the UK’s food system.

    A recent report found that more than half of migrants at risk of labour abuse work in the food system. A more resilient food supply will require better working conditions, pay and housing for workers in this sector, the report concludes.

    Higher prices don’t mean better welfare

    It’s tempting to ask consumers to pay more for their food so that farm workers might earn more. However, higher prices are no guarantee of better conditions. Leaving aside rising inflation and stagnating wages which make it harder for consumers to buy ethically, organic farms already sell produce at a premium and some are also among those accused of mistreating workers.

    This is even a problem among small-scale organic food producers, as documented by Solidarity Across Land Trades. A report by this land worker’s union found that some small farms use bogus traineeships to justify paying workers as little as £1.41 per hour. This is despite the produce usually being sold for more than conventional supermarket prices.

    Greener diets depend on increased fruit and vegetable production.
    Framarzo/Shutterstock

    The structural problems of the food system are more complicated than the price consumers pay for food. There is also the question of who gets to be heard, who is valued and who is deemed worthy of rights and dignity when food production takes place under a system of class-based exploitation. These challenges cannot be solved at the checkout alone.

    The ecological crisis demands transitions away from diesel-powered machinery and chemical fertilisers and herbicides produced with fossil fuels. Farm workers are needed to carry out the transition towards more sustainable practices, but there will be no green transition unless these workers have a stake in it.

    This idea of “a just transition” has gained traction in recent years, and it is just as relevant to farmers and farm workers as it is to workers in other sectors, such as oil and gas. But what might it look like?

    The demands made by Justice Is Not Seasonal are a good place to start: an end to forced labour and exploitation on UK farms and full accountability for those responsible, fair wages and safe working conditions, residency rights and access to justice and remediation.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Alex Heffron does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The UK farmer protests you probably haven’t heard about – https://theconversation.com/the-uk-farmer-protests-you-probably-havent-heard-about-249414

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mexico’s drug corruption has more to do with US demand than crooked politicians

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nathaniel Morris, Honorary Lecturer in the Department of History, UCL

    The US president, Donald Trump, asserted in early February that Mexican drug-trafficking organisations have an “intolerable alliance” with the government of Mexico. His remarks have cast a pall over bilateral relations already strained by recent talk of tariffs and military interventions.

    Although the two nations have sometimes clashed in the past, Mexico is today a close US ally. It is America’s top trading partner, with two-way commerce totalling US$807 billion (£640 billion) in 2023. And joint US-Mexican anti-narcotics collaborations stretch back nearly a century.

    Trump’s accusation was, therefore, as unexpected as it was explosive. It has brought figures from across the Mexican political spectrum together in condemnation of what Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, called “baseless slander”.

    The Mexican government is, on paper, a resolute enemy of the drug trade. However, the undeniable existence of drug-related corruption in Mexico means the reality is a little more complex.

    Since the birth of the Mexico-US drug trade in the early 20th century, certain government officials have turned a blind eye to the activities of drug traffickers in exchange for bribes. This “indirect” government involvement in the drug trade has always been by far the most prevalent form of drug-related corruption in Mexico.

    From the 1930s onwards, political bosses, police chiefs and military commanders in Mexico’s so-called “golden triangle” states of Sinaloa, Durango and Chihuahua taxed illicit opium production in the areas under their authority.

    They also sabotaged anti-drugs campaigns waged by other branches of government, in order to avoid conflict with their constituents and take a cut of their profits. Similar intrigues took place in the key trafficking hubs on the US-Mexico border, like Tijuana, Ciudad Juarez and Nuevo Laredo.



    Read more:
    How the ‘Mexican miracle’ kickstarted the modern US–Mexico drugs trade

    Over the second half of the 20th century, Mexican and US drug enforcement efforts created an ever-more profitable black market. Low-level corruption accompanied the expansion of drug production and trafficking south into other areas of Mexico like Nayarit, Michoacán and Guerrero.

    Nowadays, the indirect involvement of local representatives of the Mexican government in the drug trade has become a fact of life in such places. But zones of drug production or trafficking still constitute only a fraction of Mexico’s total territory. This means corrupt local officials comprise a tiny minority of the overall government workforce.

    There are, however, also cases in which higher-level representatives of the Mexican state – or even entire government institutions – have participated directly in the production, transport or sale of illegal drugs.

    Such cases are relatively rare. But, they are inherently higher profile than the more routine, “looking the other way” kind of corruption. They are, therefore, more likely to make headlines in the US and from there inform popular and even national political discourse.

    The earliest such case is probably that of revolutionary military commander Esteban Cantú. Between 1915 and 1920, Cantú constructed a powerful political regime and funded important local development projects in the northern state of Baja California. He did so by taxing the import, sale and production of smoking opium first legally and then, when President Venustiano Carranza banned the practice, illegally.

    High-level official involvement in the drug trade became more frequent as the trade itself became ever more illicit and profitable. In 1940, Sinaloa governor Rodolfo Loaiza cut a series of deals with the up-and-coming drug trafficking organisations of his native state. An attempt to double-cross them cost Loaiza his life in 1944.

    Around the same time, political campaign manager Carlos Serrano looked to regional drug smugglers to help fund Miguel Alemán’s successful run for the presidency. Serrano was rewarded with command of the newly created, US-backed Federal Directorate of Security (DFS) secret police force. He soon used this position to move directly into opium trafficking himself.

    After US president Richard Nixon declared a “war on drugs” on both sides of the border in 1971, increasing crackdowns provided more opportunities for the same Mexican officials charged with enforcing prohibition to cut deals with traffickers. Resulting squeezes on supply also caused prices to soar and made such deals increasingly lucrative for government officials.

    By the mid-1980s, the DFS had become so deeply immersed in the drug trade that several of its agents were implicated in the Guadalajara Cartel’s murder of US Drug Enforcement Administration agent Enrique “Kiki” Camarena. The agency was disbanded soon after.

    But US demand for drugs continued unabated through the 1990s and into the 21st century. The profits offered by involvement in the drug trade proved hard to resist for a select number of high-ranking government officials, including members of the federal cabinet and state governors.

    Even Genaro García Luna, the architect of Mexico’s modern “war on drugs” ended up on the take. He is now serving 38 years in a US prison for colluding with Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán’s Sinaloa Cartel.

    Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán being led away by Mexican law enforcement personnel after his arrest in 2014.
    Octavio Hoyos / Shutterstock

    An ‘intolerable alliance’?

    The indirect involvement of Mexican government officials remains far more common than direct or institutional involvement in the drug trade.

    Such corruption is largely opportunistic, rather than systematic, which is why it remains concentrated in areas where drug production and trafficking are particularly prevalent. It is also not limited to the Mexican side of the border. Plenty of crooked American cops and politicians have cut deals with traffickers over the years, too.

    Trump’s recent attacks on the Mexican government are not an accurate diagnosis of a uniquely Mexican problem. They are more of a headline-grabbing shot across the bows in the context of the renegotiation of many different aspects of the US-Mexico relationship.

    In the end, the issue of drug-related corruption in Mexico has less to do with its own government and more to do with American society’s own insatiable demand for drugs. Crackdowns on the cartels inevitably cause the price of drugs to rise, increasing the temptation of Mexican officials to try and grab a piece of the pie.

    As a businessman like Trump should be able to see, it’s not government corruption that drives the US-Mexican drug trade, but the iron laws of supply and demand.

    Nathaniel Morris has previously received funding from the Leverhulme Trust, the Arts and Humanities Research Council and University College London for research that has fed into this article. He is also a member of Noria Research.

    – ref. Mexico’s drug corruption has more to do with US demand than crooked politicians – https://theconversation.com/mexicos-drug-corruption-has-more-to-do-with-us-demand-than-crooked-politicians-249991

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Trump really wants Ukraine’s minerals – China has put theirs off limits

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of Portsmouth

    Donald Trump is demanding reparations from Ukraine for the assistance that it has given to Kyiv during the Russian invasion. Trump has demanded Ukraine sign a US$500 billion (£394 billion) deal that would give the US access to, and revenue from, Ukraine’s rare and critical minerals, an essential resource in 21st century economy.

    Trump has said that this would form part of a repayment of the aid given by the US to Ukraine. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has so far refused to sign such an agreement stating that the aid was a grant and not a loan, as agreed by Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden and the Republican-controlled Congress.

    A key reason behind Trump’s push for this mineral deal is the US reliance on rare minerals such as gallium, which is critical for advanced defence technologies but is not readily available domestically.

    China, a leading supplier of gallium, has used its control over the resource as leverage against the US. It has imposed a ban on rare minerals being exported to the US, as part of its retaliation to increased US tariffs on Chinese goods.

    Other minerals are crucial for military technology such as missile system, electronics and electric vehicles. In Ukraine, there are deposits for 22 of the 34 minerals identified by the European Union as critical.

    The problem for the US is that China currently accounts for a high proportion of certain crticial mineral imports.

    So Trump sees a resolution to the Ukraine war as an opportunity to secure alternative sources of critical minerals, reducing US dependency on China and allowing Trump to take a more aggressive approach towards it. He also may not have predicted that China would hit back against the US tariffs with restrictions on these vital resources quite so quickly.

    Gallium is valued by the defence manufacturing industry because it is reliable and durable. In particular, the element is seen as a crucial tool enhancing radar, satellite communication systems, and electronic warfare systems. It is also used in multi-chip modules utilised by navigation and air traffic control systems.

    In addition to gallium, Ukraine has vast resources of graphite, an element that is used in the construction of electric vehicles and nuclear reactors, and a third of Europe’s supply of lithium, which is used in batteries.

    Trump’s focus on critical minerals has also influenced his interest in Greenland which possesses significant reserves of critical minerals, making it a potential alternative to Chinese-controlled resources.



    Read more:
    Trump’s Greenland bid is really about control of the Arctic and the coming battle with China

    Which minerals does Trump want?

    Why is China so important?

    Trump’s concern over China is also driving his negotiations with Russia more generally. One of Trump’s core concerns is China’s partnership with Russia. There is no doubt that China is now the dominant force in the Sino-Russian alliance.

    Given the increasing cooperation between the two nations in military, economic, and technological areas, Trump believes that China’s influence in global affairs needs to be countered aggressively. The Trump administration has sought to undermine the alliance by softening the US’s approach to Russia, a move that has shocked European leaders.

    Trump has long viewed China as the major threat to the US, considering it their biggest economic rival and a significant obstacle to making America “great again”.

    His economic policies have targeted Chinese trade practices, supply chain dependencies and geopolitical manoeuvres. One of his key trade advisers has argued American businesses are at a disadvantage from China’s state-controlled economy, intellectual property theft and trade imbalance.

    The recent tariffs imposed by the US on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports, were intended to make US products more competitive by driving up the cost of Chinese imports, thereby encouraging businesses and consumers to buy domestic goods instead.

    At the same time, Trump sought to weaken China’s export economy by making it more difficult for Chinese companies to sell goods in the US. His tariff policies extended beyond China, with similar measures being considered for Europe.

    By targeting multiple regions, Trump aimed to shift global supply chains and solidify the US as a manufacturing powerhouse. By ending the war in Ukraine, Trump believes the US can redirect funds and resources used in Europe toward countering China’s growing influence.

    Trump has tried to justify the tariffs on China by claiming Chinese manufacturers are responsible for the mass production of fentanyl, which is then trafficked into the US through various channels. Trump has proposed stricter measures to curb the flow of fentanyl, including sanctions and tariffs on Chinese firms allegedly involved in its production.

    Following China’s retaliation, Trump needs peace in Ukraine and the consequential mineral agreement with Kyiv before China’s ban on exports to the US affects critical US manufacturing. Such an agreement would then allow him to take an even more aggressive posture with China with fewer consequences.

    However, Zelensky recently claimed that Russia has taken control of 20% of Ukraine’s minerals since the invasion. And it’s possible it will be years before any American investor gets any return on their money due to a chronic lack of investment in Ukraine’s minerals sector for almost a decade.

    Even if Trump does get the deal he wants, he will have to wait a while before Ukraine’s minerals will fulfil all of the US’s needs.

    Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Trump really wants Ukraine’s minerals – China has put theirs off limits – https://theconversation.com/why-trump-really-wants-ukraines-minerals-china-has-put-theirs-off-limits-250546

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Labour’s Mike Amesbury has been jailed for punching a man – here’s why he’s still an MP

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Thomas Caygill, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Nottingham Trent University

    Former Labour MP Mike Amesbury has been jailed for ten weeks after he pleaded guilty to punching a man in his constituency of Runcorn and Helsby. The incident happened in October of last year. Amesbury had the Labour whip withdrawn and has sat as an independent MP since.

    What happens to MPs who are accused and found guilty of wrongdoing? While it does depend on how we define “wrongdoing”, as it can vary in terms of the scale of offence, there are several options available to parliamentary parties, the House of Commons itself and the public. In the case of Amesbury, neither parliament nor the Labour party can stop him from remaining as an MP under the current rules, either while in prison or after he comes out. But his constituents do have a say.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

    Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday.

    The ultimate power parliamentary parties have (particularly the leader) is to remove the whip. In effect, this means the MP is expelled from the parliamentary party and may not sit with their colleagues, nor be reelected under the party banner should the whip remain withdrawn at an election.

    There is a distinction between the whip being withdrawn and it being suspended. To have the whip withdrawn suggests it is final and will not be returned. To have it suspended suggests its removal is only temporary and can be returned. This was the case with the seven Labour MPs who voted against the party line over the two-child benefit cap.

    Amesbury had the whip withdrawn after the allegations and video evidence (which was circulated widely on social media) emerged. However, he remains an independent MP, at least for now.

    The House of Commons has the power to suspend MPs from the chamber for a specified period of time. Where an MP is found to have broken the code of conduct or committed a contempt of the House (for example, misleading the House), the committee on standards may recommend a period of suspension which leads to a motion being tabled in the House of Commons.

    This is what was going to happen to Boris Johnson after he was found to have misled parliament over “partygate” allegations. He resigned before the suspension could take effect.

    The parliamentary commissioner for standards, (an independent officer of the House of Commons), can also investigate complaints made against MPs (including over breaching lobbying rules). In serious cases it can report to the standards committee to recommend a sanction, including suspension from the House.

    The only way an MP can be expelled by the House of Commons completely (rather than having their membership suspended) is if they are sentenced to more than a year’s imprisonment. In this case, Amesbury was sentenced to ten weeks, so well below that threshold.

    Prior to 2015, this would have been the end of the process. Amesbury would have had the whip withdrawn. After completing his ten-week sentence he would have been free to continue to sit as an MP until the end of his current term.

    The role of the public

    As things stand in 2025, this is no longer the end of the line for these kinds of offences. We are approaching the tenth anniversary of the Recall of MPs Act, which has provided a route for the electorate to remove sitting MPs who have been found to have committed wrongdoing.

    Recall refers to a process whereby the electorate in a constituency can trigger a byelection to remove a sitting MP before the end of their term of office. MPs can be recalled under three circumstances:

    • if they are convicted in the UK of any offence and sentenced or ordered to be imprisoned or detained, after all appeals have been exhausted

    • if an MP is suspended from the House following report and recommended sanction from the committee on standards for a specified period: at least 10 sitting days, or at least 14 days if sitting days are not specified (we saw a number of these kind of recalls during the 2019 Parliament, particularly following lobbying scandals)

    • if an MP is convicted of making false or misleading parliamentary allowances claims (under the Parliamentary Standards Act 2009).

    In the case of Amesbury, his sentence is close to meeting the conditions of the first point. I use the word “close” as he is planning on appealing the sentence, and the criteria cannot be formally met until those appeals are exhausted.

    If any of the criteria are met, then the speaker must notify the local returning officer (who oversees elections). A recall petition is then automatically launched and remains open for six weeks. Under the act, electors must sign the petition in person, by post or by proxy. For a petition to be successful and a byelection triggered, 10% of the eligible registered voters must sign it.

    At the time of writing, there have been six recall petitions launched against various MPs. Four of those were successful and saw the sitting MP lose their seat, one petition failed and the MP remained in place and in one case the MP resigned while the petition was open, automatically triggering a byelection.

    Given Amesbury is appealing, this process has not yet begun. However, he is under pressure, particularly from opposition MPs, to resign immediately and trigger a byelection now.

    While there is potentially a way back for Amesbury in terms of remaining an MP (should his appeal be successful or if a recall petition goes ahead and fails to meet the 10% threshold) it is unlikely there is a way back for him in terms of having the Labour whip restored.

    Either way, he may be on borrowed time. Even if he remains an MP, without a party whip he most likely faces defeat at a subsequent general election.

    This is what happened to former Labour MP Claudia Webbe. She had the whip withdrawn by the Labour Party in 2021 following a conviction for harassment. However, she appealed her sentence and was given community service instead – failing to trigger the Recall of MPs Act. She remained as an independent MP until the 2024 general election, where she was defeated by the Conservative candidate.

    There is an onus on political parties to ensure they respond to credible allegations of wrongdoing appropriately, including suspending the whip and removing it where necessary. In Amesbury’s case, Labour acted quickly.

    But given the scandals we have seen in recent years, the public have limited patience. And wrongdoing, by what is a small minority of MPs, can tar the reputation of all MPs and parliament itself.

    Thomas Caygill is currently receiving funding from the British Academy (SRG2324241256)

    – ref. Labour’s Mike Amesbury has been jailed for punching a man – here’s why he’s still an MP – https://theconversation.com/labours-mike-amesbury-has-been-jailed-for-punching-a-man-heres-why-hes-still-an-mp-250707

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘I thought about escaping every day’: how survivors get out of Southeast Asia’s cybercrime compounds – Scam Factories podcast, Ep 3

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gemma Ware, Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

    Every day that he was locked up in a scam compound in Southeast Asia, George thought about how to get out. “We looked for means of escaping, but it was hard,” he told The Conversation.

    George, whose name has been changed to protect his identity, managed to secretly contact a rescue organisation in Myanmar, where he was being held. That set in motion a chain of events that would eventually lead to his freedom, but it would take months before he made it back home to his family in Uganda.

    Hundreds of thousands of people like George are estimated to have been caught up in the brutal scamming industry in Southeast Asia, many forced into criminality against their will.

    Scam Factories is a podcast series from The Conversation Weekly taking you inside these brutal fraud compounds. It accompanies a series of multimedia articles on The Conversation.

    In our third and final episode, Great Escapes, we find out the different ways people manage to escape and at what costs, what it takes for them to get home, and what is being done to clamp down on the industry.

    The Conversation collaborated for this series with three researchers: Ivan Franceschini, a lecturer in Chinese Studies at the University of Melbourne; Ling Li, a PhD candidate at Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, and Mark Bo, an independent researcher.

    They’ve spent the past few years researching the expansion of scam compounds in the region for a forthcoming book. They’ve interviewed nearly 100 survivors of the compounds, analysed maps and financial documents related to the scam industry and tracked scammers online to find out how these compounds work.

    Read an article by Ivan Franceschini and Ling Li which accompanies this episode.

    The Conversation contacted all the companies mentioned in this multimedia series for comment, except Jinshui who we could not contact. We did not receive a response from any of them.

    This episode was written and produced by Gemma Ware, with assistance from Mend Mariwany and Katie Flood. Leila Goldstein was our producer in Cambodia and Halima Athumani recorded for us in Uganda. Hui Lin helped us with Chinese translation. Sound design by Michelle Macklem and editing help from Ashlynee McGhee and Justin Bergman.

    Newsclips in this episodes are from CNA, Reuters and Al Jazeera English.

    Listen to The Conversation Weekly podcast via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here.

    Mark Bo, an independent researcher who works with Ivan Franeschini and Ling Li, is also interviewed in this podcast series. Ivan, Ling, Mark, and others have co-founded EOS Collective, a non-profit organisation dedicated to investigating the criminal networks behind the online scam industry and supporting survivors.

    – ref. ‘I thought about escaping every day’: how survivors get out of Southeast Asia’s cybercrime compounds – Scam Factories podcast, Ep 3 – https://theconversation.com/i-thought-about-escaping-every-day-how-survivors-get-out-of-southeast-asias-cybercrime-compounds-scam-factories-podcast-ep-3-250673

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Alcohol ingestion by animals is surprisingly widespread – and we’re starting to understand its impact

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anna Christina Bowland, PhD Candidate in Biosciences, University of Exeter

    Humans may not be the only animals that ingest alcohol, research is suggesting. Studies on animals are showing they may be eating natural ethanol for its medicinal or nutritional properties.

    Humans drink alcohol in almost every part of the world, apart from places where people abstain for religious reasons. In the past, many people believed alcohol consumption was unique to humans, but growing evidence is showing we aren’t alone in our taste for booze.

    It has long been known that vinegar flies are closely linked to alcohol given their tendency to breed on fermented fruits. However, it turns out they are not an outlier.

    When you think of alcohol, you may think of a pint of beer or a glass of wine. But there are many types of alcohol, most of which are extremely toxic. For example, isopropanol (rubbing alcohol), which is commonly used as a disinfectant.

    Ethanol, or ethyl alcohol, is the alcohol found in alcoholic beverages, but ethanol is also prevalent in nature. Yeasts, including Saccharomyces cerevisiae, also known as brewer’s yeast, are widespread in the natural environment and produce ethanol (possibly to defend the plant’s sugary resource from competing microorganisms), when they metabolise sugars via fermentation. Many fruits, nectars and saps contain an abundance of sugars. Some of this sugar becomes ethanol when colonised by yeast.

    Fruit from plants in Panama, Costa Rica, Singapore, Israel and Finland have been found to contain ethanol, as well as some nectars and saps. The concentration of ethanol in naturally fermenting fruit is typically much lower than those in human-made alcoholic beverages, but some overripe fruit, such as fruits of the black palm (Astrocaryum standleyanum) have ethanol levels similar to a standard beer (5%).

    If fruit, nectars and saps ferment in the wild, it is not surprising that some animals may ingest ethanol. Studies, experimental and in the wild, have confirmed insects (including honeybees and butterflies) ingest it, as well as birds (such as hummingbirds, cedar waxwings and bohemian waxwings) and mammals (for example, pen-tailed tree shrews and the slow loris). Non-human primates, including one of our closest living relatives the chimpanzee, ingest it too.

    Although examples in the wild are rare, this may be due to lack of research rather than prevalence. Researchers are developing methods that make it easier to measure ethanol in the field, and as more research is conducted, more examples will probably be discovered.

    Do animals get drunk?

    There are many anecdotes of “drunk” animals, from moose to elephants, but none of these cases have actually been validated. From an evolutionary standpoint, being drunk is disadvantageous. Intoxicated animals could be more susceptible to injury or predation, and less likely to survive.

    Instead, many scientists expect natural selection would favour adaptations for increased ethanol metabolism to avoid becoming “drunk”. This allows animals to eat fermented foods while minimising the negative effects of intoxication.

    In animals, including humans, the primary metabolic route for ethanol is similar. Ethanol is first oxidised to acetaldehyde (a toxic intermediate) by the enzyme alcohol dehydrogenase.

    Acetaldehyde is then converted to acetate (which is less toxic) by aldehyde dehydrogenase. Yet, the efficiency at which different animals metabolise ethanol varies. It can vary between humans too.

    Some animals appear to have enhanced ethanol metabolism. Much like humans, chimpanzees, gorillas and bonobos share a mutation that make them particularly efficient at metabolising ethanol.

    Interestingly, the only Asian great ape (orangutan), which is highly arboreal (tree-dwelling), doesn’t share this mutation. This may be because orangutans did not experience the same evolutionary pressures as the more terrestrial (ground-dwelling) African great apes.

    For example, orangutans primarily feed in trees where fruit is expected to be less fermented than when it falls to the ground.

    Adult female chimpanzee feeding on ripe Spondias mombin
    Kimberley Hockings, CC BY-NC-ND

    It is possible that if sugary foods ferment naturally, then animals that eat these foods may consume ethanol without meaning to. Ethanol may have some benefits. It has antimicrobial properties and vinegar flies are known to use it to self-medicate against parasites. However, not much is known on whether other animals also use ethanol for medicinal purposes.

    There are confirmed sightings of many animals, from chimpanzees to orangutans using plants for medication, so the use of ethanol in this way could be widespread. Animals may also ingest food with ethanol in it because ethanol itself is a source of calories and its presence indicates sugar and nutrient content.

    Ambrosia beetles use the smell of ethanol as a cue to find suitable host trees to colonise. The ethanol increases the growth of fungi which the beetles feed on.

    Many of us are keenly aware of ethanol’s cognitive impact, including feelings of relaxation. Ethanol might play a significant role in promoting sociality among humans. This may also apply to other species, but has yet to be studied in a natural context.

    We still have much to learn about wild animals’ natural use of ethanol. Many
    hypotheses remain untested, and we know little about whether animals seek out ethanol and fermented foods. But many animals ingest it. It is clear the party is growing, and we are just one of many species that partake in ethanol.

    Anna Christina Bowland has received funding from the Primatological Society of Great Britain (PSGB) and the University of Exeter.

    – ref. Alcohol ingestion by animals is surprisingly widespread – and we’re starting to understand its impact – https://theconversation.com/alcohol-ingestion-by-animals-is-surprisingly-widespread-and-were-starting-to-understand-its-impact-246638

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Child given detention for getting less than 90% on a test – psychology shows there are far better ways to motivate students

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Hannah Wilkinson, Lecturer in Educational Psychology, University of Manchester

    Connect Images – Legacy/Shutterstock

    An 11-year-old at a school in Essex was recently reported to have been given a detention for not achieving 90% on his maths homework (he got 81%). This measure by his school comes in an environment when schools in England seem to be increasingly reaching for severe methods of punishment: more and more children are being suspended or excluded. But the 11-year-old’s detention suggests a use of sanctions not only to deal with bad behaviour, but also to drive improved academic achievement.

    While this is a particularly overt example, many schools adopt strict behavioural policies in part to improve results. And the 2019 Timpson review of school exclusion in England reported allegations that a small number of schools were excluding pupils in order to boost the school’s academic attainment by removing them.

    But research in educational psychology shows there are better ways to motivate learners than the threat of sanctions.

    Since the 1988 Education Reform Act, which offered parents preference for their children’s schools and placed increased emphasis on measurable data, the education system has become a market in which schools compete against one another.

    Today, you can view a host of statistics for schools. These include how much progress students have made since joining secondary school and how many students received a pass in English and maths GCSE, as well as the percentage of students who have stayed in education or gained employment after leaving Year 11. These results can be compared with local schools and the national average.

    While the introduction of this visible data was introduced in a bid to improve schools and student outcomes, perhaps it is time to take stock of how this has changed the ways schools operate.

    The toll on schools and pupils

    The costs for schools failing to deliver on these statistics are high. They have included increased Ofsted inspections, the removal of the headteacher and the forced move of a school from local authority control into an academy trust.

    These accountability measures may lead schools to more punitive, pressuring approaches in order to push students to work hard to achieve good results, as well as to remove disruptive pupils from classrooms so as not to jeopardise the attainment of others.

    The headteacher of the boy given a detention over his maths score told the BBC that the school was under pressure after receiving a “requires improvement” rating from Ofsted.

    But increasing the focus on achievement and punishing students when they do not meet set standards comes with a cost. Pupils are at risk of becoming disengaged and unhappy at school, and may suffer damage to their self-esteem.

    When students feel their self-esteem is at risk they are more likely to engage in what are known as “defensive strategies” in a bid to protect their self-esteem. For example, students may decrease their effort or procrastinate. This allows them to attribute their potential poor performance to factors such as not trying hard enough, rather than it being a reflection of their own poor ability.

    Often feeling like a failure can lead to learned helplessness. This happens when, following a series of negative results or stressful situations, people can feel that the outcomes of their life are beyond their control and that negative events are unavoidable.

    These perceptions can result in beliefs that there is little point in trying to change the inevitable. It can lead to helpless behaviour and reduced motivation and belief in their own ability.

    A different strategy

    Self-determination theory is a psychological theory that offers a perspective beyond the traditional reward and punishment approach to motivation. It posits that as humans we are naturally keen to learn and grow, but environmental conditions can diminish this innate drive.

    To feel in control of our own actions and therefore motivated to act, we need to feel that we are competent, with opportunities to exercise our capabilities. We need to feel that we have autonomy – that we are responsible for our own behaviour. And we need to have a sense of belonging with others.

    When these three “needs” are satisfied, we are more likely to be highly motivated and to engage in tasks with enthusiasm. However, these needs can be thwarted if we receive high levels of criticism and negative performance feedback, are set work which is too challenging, or face threats and imposed goals.

    When success criteria is too high, students will not feel competent in their ability to achieve these high standards. Working just to avoid punishment means students’ behaviour is being driven by external influences and therefore they will not feel autonomous.

    Furthermore, harsh punishments will reduce students’ sense of belonging within their school environment as they will not feel valued. These punitive behaviours are more likely to result in decreased effort and disengagement.

    While it’s not an easy task for schools and teachers working in a high-stakes, results-based system, there are ways to amend practices to support rather than thwart students’ innate motivation.

    This can include ensuring that work is set at an appropriate level and expectations for success are achievable. Schools can try to foster an environment which promotes respect and care, by acknowledging students’ views and providing them with opportunities to offer their voice and provide feedback.

    In order to support students’ autonomy, where possible, schools could provide them with choice. This could include deciding what topic they want to carry out a project on. Students could choose the format for presenting their homework, such as bullet points or a letter, or handwritten or digital, that allows them to work to their strengths.

    Even providing students with a clear rationale for decisions – such as why a class is focusing on a certain topic – can help to make them feel more involved and engaged.

    By encouraging students to set their own targets which suit personal goals and aspirations for their future, rather than those set by governments and schools, we can help them to redefine their view of success and prioritise their efforts on being the best that they can be. This can help protect their self-esteem and support their motivation towards working towards these goals.

    If schools are able to focus more on the individual needs and goals of their students this could harness their natural motivation to learn and thrive.

    Hannah Wilkinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Child given detention for getting less than 90% on a test – psychology shows there are far better ways to motivate students – https://theconversation.com/child-given-detention-for-getting-less-than-90-on-a-test-psychology-shows-there-are-far-better-ways-to-motivate-students-249804

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Demi Moore: the Oscar nominee with a career defined by defiance

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Caroline Ruddell, Reader in Film and Television, Brunel University of London

    Demi Moore won the Golden Globe for best actress in January for her performance in the horror sci-fi film, The Substance. In her acceptance speech, she shared that, 30 years ago, a producer told her she was a “popcorn actress”. The implication was that she was not the kind of “serious” actor who might win awards.

    Having now also received an Oscar nomination for the role, it seems her work is finally being taken seriously. During the 1980s and 1990s, Moore was a huge star and renowned for appearing in mainstream, big budget films – hence the “popcorn” label. If you go back to the films she is best known for, however, an interesting trend emerges.

    As a researcher of gender in film and television, I’ve long been interested in Moore’s work. That’s because, while it is perhaps most explicit in The Substance, the majority of her oeuvre interrogates womanhood and power.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    In The Substance, Moore plays the fading celebrity Elisabeth Sparkle with ferocity. But the plaudits for her performance don’t mean this is something new – that ferociousness has always been there in her onscreen roles.

    As femme fatale Meredith in Disclosure (1994), for example, she dominated every scene with an aggressive power that is rare to behold. Writing about Moore’s work in 2004, film researcher Linda Ruth Williams described that power as a “dangerous sexiness”.



    Read more:
    The Substance: Demi Moore is ferocious in gloriously gory satire on Hollywood’s female ageism

    Meredith is a woman from senior executive Tom’s (Michael Douglas) past. When she walks back into his life, she comes close to derailing it entirely through a concoction of manipulative and cunning behaviour, an impressive business sense, and outright pure and simple aggression.

    At one point, Tom even says he would in no way be a physical match for her due to the amount of time she spends exercising on a StairMaster machine. Though she doesn’t win out in the end, Meredith is by far the most powerful and compelling character in the film.

    Moore’s Golden Globe acceptance speech.

    Even in Moore’s more passive roles, such as Molly in Ghost (1990), she steals the show. A big part of that is her uncanny ability to make her eyes flit between intense dark fury and overwhelming grief.

    And I can’t ignore G.I. Jane (1997). In that film, Moore shaved herself a buzzcut on camera and yelled the unforgettable line “suck my dick” at Master Chief Urgayle (Viggo Mortensen) upending, or at least unsettling, social expectations of women in the military. Much of the power of Moore’s performance in this film is in the way she physically transformed for the role. Williams described the role as a work of “corporeal shapeshifting” due to the intense physical training Moore undertook for the part.

    In A Few Good Men (1992), her character, Lieutenant Commander Joanne Galloway, rivals all others with her fierce intellect and knowledge of the law. While Tom Cruise’s Lieutenant Daniel Kaffee wows in the courtroom, it is Galloway’s knowledge of the case and refusal to bow to patriarchal power (largely embodied by Jack Nicholson’s Colonel Jessep) that sees them through.

    Ageing in Hollywood

    In September 2024, I was interviewed for an article about older women in film and television by the journalist Christobel Hastings.

    In it, Hastings stated that “Hollywood has a long history of ignoring female actors”. Citing several research studies, she noted that women’s careers peak at age 30 in the industry, while men’s peak 15 years or more later.

    But she also made the case that there has been an increase in the diversity of roles available to older actresses both in film and television. Such movement for female actresses has long been championed by the Geena Davis Institute, a research organisation focusing on equitable representation in media, for over 20 years.

    If I were to sum up Moore’s career with one word, it would be defiance. And now, with The Substance, she has defied expectations once again by joining the (thankfully increasing) ranks of female actresses who are finding meaty roles as they head into middle or older age.

    Caroline Ruddell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Demi Moore: the Oscar nominee with a career defined by defiance – https://theconversation.com/demi-moore-the-oscar-nominee-with-a-career-defined-by-defiance-249765

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Understanding the cultural experience of keeping warm can help us embrace clean energy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Becky Shaw, Professor in Fine Art, Birmingham City University

    The way we heat our homes is a major contributor to the greenhouse gases that are heating up the planet. So moving to more sustainable home heating is vital for decarbonisation and meeting emissions targets.

    Campaigns usually offer technological solutions as well as environmental and economic incentives. But they rarely recognise that the way we heat our homes is a way of life – connected to our identities, relationships, communities, culture, values and the “practice” of making a home.

    Changing something as fundamental as heating can bring up complex feelings. To understand how people are connected to the way they heat their homes, we – a group of academics at Sheffield Hallam University, Birmingham City University and universities in Finland, Sweden and Romania – embarked on a project that combined history, art, and social science research to find out how cultures and histories of heating can inform fair and effective change.

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    The Justheat research project explores the experience of eight communities in four nations that have had different heating transition journeys. These are: Sweden, which is at an advanced stage of energy transition; Finland, where a culture of burning wood is in conflict with decarbonisation; Romania, with a hesitant energy plan where experiences of heating poverty make change unpopular; and the UK which has a “lagging” uptake of low carbon heating sources.

    We gathered oral histories from selected communities to encourage personal reflection on the past through the perspective of the present. Oral histories encourage people to decide what is important to tell – not the researcher. We collected more than 300 accounts of changes in the way people heated their homes since 1940.

    Artists were appointed in each country to create artworks that highlighted various aspects of the oral histories. This included Finnish painter and textiles artist Henna Aho, Romanian photographer Denise Lobont and video artist Ram Krishna Ranjan, who lives in Sweden. I am both the project UK artist and co-ordinator of the other artists. All were selected because they had an existing interest in home heating and had experience of collaboration.

    When listening to people’s stories, the artists noted how detailed descriptions or emotional intensity stood out. These included reflections on how children found fires to be a source of play (one participant described “crashing” toy planes into the flames), a son’s guilt for not helping his mother with making the fire, and a woman’s memory of a friend becoming ill from severe cold. The artists were inspired by the creative ways people mixed past, present and future in their stories.

    Each nation and story is unique, but the tension between government (or other forms of authority) and communities was a common theme. For example, in Finland people value wood as a secure fuel that they can grow and control themselves – but this means some people move away from the efficient and sustainable networked heating solutions that are already in use there.

    In Sweden, oral histories showed a strong trust in government energy policy, but renters struggled with the ways that landlords can limit heating. In Romania, a severe lack of energy during the fall of Communism in 1989 and austerity measures to pay off national debt led to desperate households burning furniture to keep warm.

    In Romania and some other countries, descriptions of past distrust in the government often accompanies a negative reaction to current policies, fearing that they will reduce individual control and benefit.

    In the UK the last mining pits closed as recently as 2013, so the pain of losing livelihoods and communities is still felt. Some of our UK oral histories documented how coal provided people with a sense of security because they could control how long the fuel would last.

    Coal was described as a total way of life, linking home, family, work, community, love, food, safety and care. Despite the dirt and drudgery of coal home heating, the joy of getting warm by the fire was seared into people’s memory. While there were stories of feeling cold, they often described feeling joy in the contrast of being cold and then getting warm. This was seen as part of the intense joy of radiant heat.

    When gas central heating was rolled out in the 1970s and 1980s, our oral histories described it as “marvellous” in its speed and cleanliness, but some participants also felt that it lacked the comfort, cheer and invitation to gather together that a solid fuel fire offers.

    Despite Sweden’s successful electric heating network, the Swedish oral histories recorded an enduring joy in the use of wood-burning stoves to heat their summer houses. This did not counter their appreciation of electric networked heating, but the delight of an additional fire and its capacity to draw people together, persists.

    Combined, the oral histories and the artworks inspired by them let us understand how past changes to the way we heat our homes have affected us. We are currently sharing the artists’ work with communities and local energy leaders, and we are interested to see how artworks might encourage discussion.

    Current research and policy focuses on technological change to generate rapid decarbonisation. However, no change can be made without getting households on board. As part of this, we need to understand how past experiences influence communities’ response to energy change.

    Changing the way we heat our homes is likely to be attractive only if it offers a significant improvement in the experience of keeping warm, rather than merely appealing to us in economic terms, or for environmental reasons.

    Becky Shaw receives funding from Arts and Humanities Research Council and Birmingham City University.

    – ref. Understanding the cultural experience of keeping warm can help us embrace clean energy – https://theconversation.com/understanding-the-cultural-experience-of-keeping-warm-can-help-us-embrace-clean-energy-244710

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –