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Category: Global

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine war: game theory reveals the complexities (and fragility) of a nuclear deterrent

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Renaud Foucart, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Lancaster University Management School, Lancaster University

    Since the cold war, deterrence has been a fundamental principle underpinning peace between global superpowers. The idea is that if two sides have nuclear weapons, the consequences of actually using them mean the button never gets pressed.

    But the strategy goes beyond the countries which own the weapons. In practice, for instance, most of Europe relies on the US for a nuclear “umbrella” of deterrence. And any country with nuclear weapons can offer guarantees of peace to others.

    This is what happened in 1994 when Russia, the UK and the US signed the Budapest memorandum in which Ukraine renounced its nuclear weapons from the Soviet era in exchange for a promise to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine”. This was widely seen as a good idea for Ukraine and the world, reducing the risk of a nuclear accident.

    But that memorandum has not served Ukraine well. As North Korea, India, Pakistan or Israel know, owning nuclear weapons – even against international agreements – ensures your protection. A piece of paper does not.

    And now, across the world, the ability to offer the equivalent of a Budapest memorandum to other countries has vanished. A key part of the theory behind a successful nuclear deterrent has fallen away.

    This is described in game theory – the mathematical study of strategic interactions – as the idea of a “credible commitment”. To deter a military invasion, the country offering protection must be ready to do something that hurts its own interests if it happens.

    In the case of Ukraine, this has so far involved allies sending costly military equipment, financial support and enduring the small risk of further escalation of the conflict. Being a trustworthy guarantor is a matter of international reputation: a country that delivers is considered credible. But no one will trust a guarantor that breaks its promises.



    Read more:
    Ukraine war: what is the Budapest Memorandum and why has Russia’s invasion torn it up?

    And while credible retaliation is important, so too is avoiding escalation. For it is also in everyone’s interest to reduce the probability of a catastrophic outcome.

    Over the years, the small number of countries with internationally accepted nuclear arsenals (the US, UK, France, Russia and China) have developed nuclear doctrines. These are sophisticated and often deliberately opaque rules for escalation and deescalation.

    The Nobel prize-winning economist, Thomas Schelling, argues that the uncertainty around these rules is what makes them so effective. It strengthens a system in which protection can be offered to other countries in exchange for them not developing their own nuclear capabilities.

    War games

    Game theory research has also shed light on the complexity of these rules of engagement (or non-engagement), such as the expectation (and necessity) of credible retaliation against an attack.

    Imagine, for example, that China launches a nuclear bomb that completely destroys Manchester. A rational British prime minister may prefer to end hostilities and accept the destruction of a major city rather than retaliate and risk the total destruction of human life.

    But for the deterrent to actually work, they must retaliate – or expect to see Birmingham and London disappear.

    Another difficulty comes in finding the appropriate response to varying levels of provocation. When Russian-affiliated soldiers were found guilty by Dutch courts of downing a Malaysian Airlines civilian flight with 298 people onboard, including 196 Dutch nationals, there was no talk of proportional retaliation. No one seriously contemplated shooting down a Russian plane or bombing a small Russian city.

    Nor was there any retaliation to Russian interventions in European elections, or to the sabotage of infrastructure in Baltic states, or to murders and attempted murders on European soil.

    And after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the reaction of the west was consistent with principles designed to avoid escalation. Sanctions were imposed on Russia, military aid was sent to Ukraine.

    But to abandon Ukraine now, forcing it to cede territory after three years of fighting, death, and destruction, would be a significant shift. It would represent a clear and deliberate abandonment of the international guarantees Ukraine thought it had.

    Arsenals and agreements

    Game theory also suggests that the most likely consequence of abandoning those commitments is that no country will repeat Ukraine’s mistake of giving up its nuclear capabilities. And no country will want to place their trust in potentially unreliable allies.

    Europe for instance, will aim to develop its own nuclear umbrella, potentially combining French and British capabilities. It will also hasten to integrate the next likely targets of Moscow’s military ambitions.

    This will include the parts of Ukraine not annexed by Russia, but also Georgia, already invaded by Russia in 2008, and Moldova, partly occupied by Russia.

    The second consequence is that the west will no longer have a good reason to convince countries to abandon their nuclear ambitions. That means no credible deal for North Korea, no convincing offer for Iran, and even fewer prospects to end the nuclear programmes of Pakistan, India or Israel.

    Looking at the ruins of Mariupol or Gaza City, and comparing them to Pyongyang, Tel Aviv or Tehran, many countries will conclude that a nuclear weapon is a better way to ensure security than any piece of paper.

    So if the west does abandon Ukraine, game theory suggests that the world should expect a proliferation of nuclear powers. Each will need to learn, as Russia and the US have, to live on the threshold of diastrous confrontation. But research shows that establishing a situation of reduced risk takes time.

    And that could be a time filled with increased potential for events reminiscent of the Cuban missile crisis – and a growing belief that nuclear war is inevitable.

    Renaud Foucart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ukraine war: game theory reveals the complexities (and fragility) of a nuclear deterrent – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-game-theory-reveals-the-complexities-and-fragility-of-a-nuclear-deterrent-249995

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Five tips to find what really brings you joy outside of work

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alison Bishop, Lecturer in Positive Psychology Coaching, University of East London

    Not long ago I attended a concert. It was a band that I had been waiting a while to see and so I was excited to be there in the crowd. Part way through, they played my favourite song and I noticed that I felt something different.

    It felt like a pinnacle moment where the emotion of joy felt expansive and unstoppable. In that moment, I felt more alive with all my senses of my surroundings heightened and yet so much more connected to the core of who I know myself to be.

    I first set out to write about finding joy, as if joy was out there in the world waiting for us to find it. However, the story of the concert shows us that this is not the case.

    Not everyone likes the band that I saw and not everyone in the concert had the same experience as me. This tells us that joy is more personal, an inside job, rather than something to find outside ourselves.

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    The psychologist Chris Meadows suggests that joy is a feeling that comes from viewing an event in our lives as being meaningful to us or good for us.

    Joy is not just a singular experience, there are different types of joy, according to Meadows. In his study of joy he writes about the muted experience of “serene joy”, which aims at restoring or maintaining equilibrium in the body. Then there is “excited joy”, which is linked to pursuing goals.

    “Individuated joy” is felt while alone while “affiliative joy” is shared with others. Meadow’s study into the phenomenon of joy suggests that social experiences of joy occur more often than solo ones and result in what we know as bonding experiences.

    “Anticipatory joy” occurs when the fulfilment of a goal is imminent and then “consummatory joy” happens when the goal has been achieved. There is also an element of feeling blessed or that what has been achieved has exceeded expectations.

    In addition to the thought processes that lead to joy, there are many other elements that need to be in place. Safe, familiar surroundings are key in enabling us to be present in the moment to support relaxed equilibrium. When we feel safe and relaxed, we are more able to laugh and play and explore new ideas.

    Playfulness that’s aimless but results in fairly predictable outcomes, allows us to switch off our inner critic and focus on the good feelings of being in the moment with joy. This brings a sense of ease in that whatever happens, requires very little effort on our part.

    Here are five tips on how to find what brings you joy in its many forms:

    1. Be present

    “Be in the moment” is easy to say but harder to do.

    Joy exists in the present, therefore, we need to be there to experience it. This might mean that sometimes we need to ditch the phone and not video something to post or watch later as doing that prevents us becoming immersed in the here and now. This is about making our own experience more important than the “likes” of others.

    2. Listen to your inner voice

    Next, turn up the volume on your inner voice.

    As joy is unique to each of us, we need to hear our own voice to find out what will bring us joy. To do this, it helps to create specificity around the goals that we aspire to in the future so that we are clear about what we want to achieve.

    I love the theme tune for The Pirates of the Caribbean and want to be able to play it on the piano. To make this goal specific, I need to decide what my success criteria is. It might be, I want to play to the end without stopping, or I want to get to the end without stopping and to play all of the notes on the sheet music without mistakes. Only I can know whether I would feel more joyful by achieving the second goal over the first.

    Being specific means we will clearly know when that goal fulfilment is either imminent or achieved. So, the more specific we are the better. The same goes for looking at the experiences that have brought us joy in the past. By reflecting on these experiences, we can learn things about ourselves that lead to us being able to create more joy.

    3. Don’t listen to your inner critic

    It helps to switch off your inner critic, or at least turn the volume on this down.

    It is not possible to be playful and feel safe and free, while we constantly are censoring ourselves. So, tell the inner critic that it is OK for you to be you.

    4. Find your tribe

    These are people who enjoy the same things as you. Being with other people who are like us enables us to feel freer to express ourselves in ways that are congruent with who we are.

    5. Tune into the little things

    Finally, pay attention to the little things, as they actually are the big things. Joy comes from the most unexpected places. By noticing when we feel joy we can create more of those experiences in our lives so that we can truly experience that joie de vivre (the joy of living).

    Alison Bishop does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Five tips to find what really brings you joy outside of work – https://theconversation.com/five-tips-to-find-what-really-brings-you-joy-outside-of-work-238722

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Land reform in South Africa doesn’t need a new law: the state should release property it owns – economists

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Johann Kirsten, Director of the Bureau for Economic Research, Stellenbosch University

    South Africa’s new Expropriation Act, which was signed into law by President Cyril Ramaphosa in January 2025, has been at the centre of a political storm set off by the new US administration under President Donald Trump.

    The Expropriation Act is not entirely new. It mainly updates the existing legislation from 1975 to align it with the constitution of democratic South Africa. But some have misinterpreted it as making room for land grabs by the state. That’s not what it does in reality. Property rights remain intact in South Africa.

    Hot on the heels of this furore has been a notice from the minister of land reform and rural development, Mzwanele Nyhontso, that the government is embarking on a new bit of legislation, the “Equitable Access to Land Bill”.

    There have been discussions over the last 10 years about developing a land reform framework bill or land redistribution bill. The main idea is to foster conditions that enable citizens to get access to land equitably. Land ownership was heavily skewed towards white people under apartheid.

    The parliamentary committee heard from the minister on 20 February 2025 that there were gaps between the white paper on South African land policy and existing legislation. The bill seeks to close the gaps. It would provide for, among other things, principles for access to land, access to land by the state and citizens, the identification and selection of beneficiaries, applications and records for land allocations, a register of agricultural land, notification of present land ownership, land ownership ceilings, a land tribunal and regulations.

    Based on our years of work on land reform and agricultural policy it’s unclear to us why such a bill is necessary. We believe there are two reasons a new law would be superfluous. Firstly, South Africa already has roughly 16 laws that address the issue of land. Secondly, policymakers tend to ignore the facts on land reform progress.

    It is hard not to view the obsession with new legislation by every new minister as a distraction from the core issues. The minister should be focusing on distributing the land the government has acquired to black farmers and give them title deeds. This will be sufficient effort to build an inclusive agricultural sector, while continuing with existing programmes of land acquisition from the open market.

    There are also other areas that should be reformed that would make a difference. These include making more finance available to aspirant black farmers and fixing the deeds office to reduce land registration times.

    What’s in place

    There should be no need for new legislation if one considers all the different pieces of legislation and government programmes that are already aimed at a more equitable distribution of land. There are at least 16 laws related to farm land and the restitution and redistribution process. These include:

    • Preservation and Development of Agricultural Land Act, signed into
      law in January 2025

    • State Land Disposal Act, 1961 (Act No. 48 of 1961)

    • Deeds Registries Act, 1937 (Act No. 47 of 1937)

    • Land Reform: Provision of Land and Assistance Act, 1993 (Act No. 126 of
      1993)

    • Restitution of Land Rights Act, 1994 (Act No. 22 of 1994)

    • Communal Property Associations Act, 1996 (Act No. 28 of 1996)

    • Land Reform (Labour Tenants) Act, 1996 (Act No. 3 of 1996)

    • Protection of Informal Land Rights Act, 1996 (Act No. 31 of 1996)

    • Extension of Security of Tenure Act, 1997 (Act No. 62 of 1997).

    In addition, South African policymakers tend to ignore the facts on land reform progress.

    As we have argued before, the mix of government programmes to restore land rights and redistribute land has already addressed 25% of the total area of farm land defined and registered by formal title deeds. This means that 19.5 million hectares of the 77.5 million hectares of South Africa’s farm land have been affected by the government land reform programmes.

    There is an important nuance here: 2.5 million hectares have been acquired by the state and are now owned by the State Land Holding Account.

    Calls for the state to redistribute this land to black farmers have been falling on deaf ears, and black farmers continue to despair.

    The government has been slow to distribute the land it has acquired. This shows that the problem of South Africa’s land reform is not only about acquisition but also the distribution of land with title deeds to beneficiaries.

    Included in the total of 19.5 million hectares are private purchases of farm land by black South Africans. We estimate a total of 2.4 million hectares have been acquired in this way up to the end of 2024.

    These individuals used their own funds or borrowed funds to acquire the land without using any of the state programmes.

    Some answers

    We have always argued that the private transactions where no bureaucrats are involved happen much quicker than any government programmes. The table below shows the relevant statistics for the last four years and confirms the argument.

    The table shows that over the last four years private land transactions (that is without any involvement of bureaucrats) have contributed 32% to the total area of farmland transferred or restituted. The land claims process, in terms of the Restitution of Land Rights Act, has made the biggest contribution of 60% (with 36% of land restituted via financial compensation and 24% of land transferred to claimants). Other government land reform programmes made a very small contribution.

    Do we have more equitable access to farm land (or rural land) after 30 years of democracy? To answer this question, we need to take into account the occupation of farm land under traditional tenure arrangements and occupation on land owned by the state, including the South African Development Trust land as well as the land recently acquired by the state under the Proactive Land Acquisition Strategy programme, which is in most cases leased to black beneficiaries for short terms.

    In addition, we account for the land redistribution programme and the land transferred back to land claimants. The numbers below provide an interesting picture of black ownership of rural land in South Africa. In some provinces, equitable access has shown remarkable progress, as shown in the table below.

    Instead of a new law, this is what’s needed

    First, access to affordable and preferential finance for land acquisition by black farmers would make an important contribution to equitable access. But no new law is needed to enable this. The answer lies in changing the way the Land Bank is funded so that it can provide affordable finance to aspirant farmers. This would be a game changer.

    Secondly, government should act on the president’s proposal to establish the Land Reform Agency, release more unused state land for agricultural use and change the regulations to facilitate private land donations to beneficiaries.

    Thirdly, fix the processes and data issues in the deeds office, which could reduce the time and costs to register property transfers.

    Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and a member of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC).

    Johann Kirsten does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Land reform in South Africa doesn’t need a new law: the state should release property it owns – economists – https://theconversation.com/land-reform-in-south-africa-doesnt-need-a-new-law-the-state-should-release-property-it-owns-economists-250674

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What do I do with expired medicine? Don’t use it, for a start…

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Renier Coetzee, Associate Professor, University of the Western Cape

    There are many risks associated with taking expired medicine and with not properly disposing of medication. JGI/Tom Grill

    When last did a headache have you reaching into your medicine cabinet – and finding a bottle of aspirin that expired three years ago? Did you take it anyway? And, if you decided instead to get rid of those out-of-date painkillers, how did you do it? If you chose to throw it in the garbage or flush it down the toilet, you’re far from alone: a 2020 research review found that “disposal of pharmaceuticals by garbage and sewer is still the most common method in many countries with the absence of the proper disposal of expired medications from the patient side”.

    The problem is that both using expired medication and disposing of it unsafely comes with significant health, economic and environmental risks.

    The Conversation Africa asked pharmacy professor Renier Coetzee, who is also the vice-president of the Pharmaceutical Society of South Africa, about the risks posed by using expired medication, and how to safely dispose of expired and surplus medicines.

    Why is it dangerous to take expired medication?

    Expiration dates for medicines are determined through stability testing. This involves assessing how long a medicine remains safe and effective under various storage conditions. Manufacturers typically provide conservative estimates of expiration dates to ensure a medicine’s quality and safety.

    Medications degrade over time. That means they may not work as intended once they reach and pass their expiry date. This is of particular concern with medicines like antibiotics: subtherapeutic doses (those which are too low to work properly and so do not fully treat the illness or infection) can contribute to antimicrobial resistance.



    Read more:
    Antibiotic resistance threatens to “undo a century of medical progress”: 5 essential reads

    Antimicrobial resistance occurs when bacteria, viruses or fungi stop responding to medicines (like antibiotics). This makes infections harder to treat. And that, in turn, increases the risk of disease spread, severe illness and death.

    Reduced potency in chronic disease medications like insulin or heart medication is also a worry, since this can have serious health consequences.

    Some expired medications can break down into harmful compounds. One example is ciprofloxacin. This antibiotic is used mostly to treat infections in the urinary and upper and lower respiratory tracts. Studies have shown that it can degrade into toxic byproducts that may harm the kidneys (and be hazardous to the environment if not properly disposed of).

    Exposure to heat, humidity and light can accelerate the breakdown of active ingredients. This applies to both scheduled medicines, prescribed by a doctor, and over-the-counter medicines.

    Consider paracetamol, which anyone can buy for pain and fever. A year-old paracetamol tablet may not seem dangerous – but if it’s degraded, it could be less effective in treating pain or fever, leading to unintended consequences like delayed treatment or overuse in an attempt to achieve relief. If potency is reduced, users might take a higher dose than needed, increasing the risk of overdose or side effects.

    It’s not just tablets and capsules that expire. Liquid medications, such as cough syrups and eye drops, are particularly vulnerable to contamination once expired, as the preservatives they contain lose their potency. This increases the risk of bacterial growth, which could lead to infections.

    Expired medications left in the home, particularly in unmarked containers, also increase the risk of accidental ingestion, especially by children.

    While some expired medications may still retain potency, there is no guarantee of safety. Safe disposal is essential to prevent misuse and potential harm to both individuals and the environment.

    Can I throw expired or surplus medicine in the bin or flush it down the toilet?

    I strongly discourage it. So do professional bodies like the Pharmaceutical Society of South Africa and the South African Pharmacy Council.

    For starters, it’s bad for the environment. Medications discarded in household trash can leach active pharmaceutical ingredients into soil and groundwater, potentially contaminating sources of drinking water.

    Flushing medicines down the sink or toilet introduces these substances directly into sewage systems. They often bypass conventional wastewater treatment processes; in Cape Town, South Africa, for example, many wastewater facilities don’t perform tertiary treatments. That allows poorly treated effluents, chemical compounds and pharmaceutical pollution to enter aquatic ecosystems. That’s bad news for wildlife and can disrupt ecosystems.



    Read more:
    Marine life in a South African bay is full of chemical pollutants

    Trace amounts of pharmaceuticals in water supplies pose risks to human health, too. Such low concentrations are generally considered to pose minimal direct health risks to humans. But there are concerns about their potential impact on antimicrobial resistance and endocrine disruption. Endocrine disruption refers to the interference caused by certain chemicals which can mimic, block, or alter the human body’s natural hormones. The process can lead to various adverse health effects.

    What are the safest, most responsible disposal methods?

    The preferred method for disposing of unused or expired medications is through drug take-back programmes or authorised collection sites. These programmes are designed to provide a safe, convenient and responsible means for individuals to dispose of unused or expired medications.

    In South Africa, the South African Pharmacy Council mandates that only authorised personnel, such as pharmacists or designated officials, may dispose of medicines, and they must produce a certificate of destruction to be stored for at least five years.

    However, a study among healthcare professionals in the country revealed that only 23.5% participated in proper medicine destruction within their facilities. This, as well as similar research I conducted with some colleagues in Australia, indicates a need for improved education and practices regarding pharmaceutical waste disposal.

    In other African countries, formalised medication take-back programmes are less common. Safe disposal methods must be established and promoted across the continent.



    Read more:
    We found traces of drugs in a dam that supplies Nigeria’s capital city

    If more formal options are unavailable, you could mix medications with unappealing substances (like used coffee grounds or cat litter) and seal the mixture in a plastic bag before throwing it away. This can help to prevent accidental ingestion by children or animals. It also keeps medications away from toilets or drains, thereby lessening water pollution and harm to aquatic life.

    However, this approach is less than ideal and should only be a last resort.

    Renier Coetzee is affiliated with TB Proof and Touching Nations.

    – ref. What do I do with expired medicine? Don’t use it, for a start… – https://theconversation.com/what-do-i-do-with-expired-medicine-dont-use-it-for-a-start-248919

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 500 years ago, German peasants revolted – but their faith that the Protestant Reformation stood for freedom was dashed by Martin Luther and the nobility

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Michael Bruening, Professor of History, Missouri University of Science and Technology

    A sketch of groups of peasants wandering around the countryside during the German Peasants’ War. Warwick Press via Wikimedia Commons.

    Five hundred years ago, in the winter of 1524-1525, bands of peasants roamed the German countryside seeking recruits. It was the start of the German Peasants’ War, the largest uprising in Europe before the French Revolution. The peasants’ goal was to overturn serfdom and create a fairer society grounded on the Christian Bible.

    For months, they seized their landlords’ monasteries and castles. By March 1525, the peasant armies had grown to encompass tens of thousands of peasants from Alsace to Austria and from Switzerland to Saxony.

    The peasants had economic grievances, to be sure, but they also drew inspiration from the message of freedom, or “Fryheit” in German, being preached by theologian Martin Luther, who had recently launched the Protestant Reformation.

    Luther’s rejection of the peasants’ cause, however, would help lead to their crushing defeat.

    I am a scholar of the Reformation, and I included the peasants’ list of demands in my book on the debates of the era. The question of the legitimacy of the peasants’ uprising was one of the most consequential debates of the era.

    Luther’s message of freedom

    In 1517, eight years before the German Peasants’ War, Luther launched the Reformation with his 95 Theses. The theses reflected Luther’s belief that the pope and the Catholic Church were preying on the poor by selling them indulgences, taking their money for a false promise that their sins would be forgiven.

    Luther taught instead that God freely forgives the sins of believers. In one of his most famous early treatises, “The Freedom of a Christian,” written in 1520, Luther argued that because they are saved or “justified” by faith alone, Christians are entirely free from the need to do works to merit salvation. This included fasting, going on pilgrimages and buying indulgences.

    Luther’s attacks on the Catholic Church, clergy and monks quickly grew more vehement. He and his allies lambasted them for fleecing the peasants and the poor through usury, a practice of lending money at high rates of interest. Since the Bible provided no support for such practices, they argued, the poor should be free of them.

    The Twelve Articles

    In her 2025 book “Summer of Fire and Blood,” Reformation scholar Lyndal Roper argues that the religious element of the peasants’ war was central. The German peasants were among the first to try to unlock the revolutionary potential of Reformation teachings to fight social and economic injustice.

    The peasants’ efforts to do so can be seen in the most important statement of their demands: The Twelve Articles. The articles are rooted in Reformation ideas and demanded, among other things, each village’s right to elect its own pastor and to be exempt from payments and duties not found in the Bible.

    A pamphlet that peasants distributed with their Twelve Articles in 1525.
    Otto Henne am Rhyn: Cultural History of the German People, via Wikimedia Commons

    Most important was the message of freedom in the third article: “Considering that Christ has delivered and redeemed us all, without exception … it is consistent with Scripture that we should be free.” It was a cry for equality based on Christ’s redemption of all, rich and poor alike.

    The Twelve Articles were hugely successful, going through 25 printings in just two months. Since the vast majority of peasants were illiterate, this was an astounding number.

    For the lower classes, the Reformation promised to break up not just the spiritual monopoly held by the Catholic Church but the entrenched feudal system that kept them oppressed. Their desire for freedom was at the same time a denunciation of serfdom.

    The peasants were willing to take up arms to secure their freedom. In winter 1524-1525, the peasants were able to capture castles and monasteries without much bloodshed. But starting in the spring of 1525, the uprising became increasingly violent. On Easter Sunday, the peasants shockingly slaughtered two dozen knights in the city of Weinsberg, Germany. A torrent of bloodshed would follow.

    Luther’s rejection of the peasants

    Although Luther may have provided the initial inspiration for the peasants, he denounced their revolt in the harshest terms. In his treatise “Admonition to Peace,” Luther complained that the peasants had made “Christian liberty an utterly carnal thing,” which “would make all men equal … and that is impossible.”

    Responding to the revolt, Luther produced a tract entitled “Against the Murdering and Robbing Hordes of Peasants.” “Let everyone who can,” he infamously wrote, “smite, slay, and stab” the rebellious peasants. The rulers did just that.

    The nobility had been slow to react to the peasants’ initial incursions, but when they finally organized their own armies, the peasants didn’t stand a chance. On the battlefield, the nobles’ cavalry and superior artillery brutally cut down the rebels. Many who escaped the battlefield were hunted down and executed.

    The exact number of those killed are not known, but estimates place the number at around 100,000. As Roper notes, “this was slaughter on a vast scale.”

    Consequences for the Reformation

    English historian A. G. Dickens famously described the Reformation as an “urban event”, meaning that the movement’s important developments took place in cities. The German Peasants’ War shows the idea to be wrong.

    In its first years, the Reformation galvanized the hopes and dreams of Germans in both town and country. To peasants and townsfolk, it seemed to promise the chance for a complete reordering of an unjust society.

    Luther’s rejection of the peasants had important long-term consequences. His decision to side with the princes transformed the Reformation from a grassroots movement into an act of state. Everywhere the Protestant reformers went, they sought to work with the proper authorities. The close cooperation of Christian leaders and secular authorities would last for centuries.

    For their part, the European peasantry grew wary of the Christian leaders who seemed to have abandoned them. Social uprisings over the next centuries lost the religious character of the 1525 conflict and would climax in the decidedly secular French Revolution.

    Michael Bruening does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 500 years ago, German peasants revolted – but their faith that the Protestant Reformation stood for freedom was dashed by Martin Luther and the nobility – https://theconversation.com/500-years-ago-german-peasants-revolted-but-their-faith-that-the-protestant-reformation-stood-for-freedom-was-dashed-by-martin-luther-and-the-nobility-246378

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Butchers, bakers, candlestick-makers − and prostitutes: The women working behind the scenes in papal Avignon

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Joelle Rollo-Koster, Professor of Medieval History, University of Rhode Island

    The papal palace in Avignon, where the pope’s court was based for much of the 14th century. Jean-Marc Rosier from http://www.rosier.pro/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    In the medieval church, women’s roles were limited – usually some form of enclosure and celibacy, such as becoming an anchoress walled up alone for life, or a nun in a classic convent. On the other extreme were a few dramatic examples of women who made history for the church while flying in the face of gender norms: heroes such as Joan of Arc.

    The full truth, though, is more complicated. Medieval women were there all along, even in priests’ own houses. In her book “The Manly Priest,” historian Jennifer Thibodeaux reminds us that while celibacy was always the church’s ideal, it was not truly enforced until later in the Middle Ages. At least until the 11th century, some priests had wives and children who were not considered illegitimate. Even after the 14th-century Black Death, clerical households with wives and children thrived in Italy.

    As the church’s notions of illicit sex and illegitimacy hardened, however, its attitudes toward women did, too. Medieval scholars – all men – defined women’s temperament in negative terms: Women were libidinous, frivolous, unfaithful, capricious, unpredictable and easily tempted. They required constant surveillance and were kept away from clerics, at least in theory. They certainly could not hold overt positions in the pope’s court unless they were his mother or sister.

    Still, another reality emerges. The church may not have seen women as equals, but nevertheless, their work was key to the workings and finances of the papal court and its surroundings. The fact is made obvious in the archives by simply following the money. It was hardly glamorous work but necessary for the functioning of the papal court.

    A page from a 15th-century edition of ‘The Decameron’ shows a laundress working on the beach.
    Bibliothèque de l’Arsenal via Wikimedia Commons

    Vatican payroll

    The Vatican Archives’ account registers make it possible to trace who was paid and for what at the medieval papal court in Avignon, where the papacy was based for most of the 14th century. Amid the tedious task of deciphering various medieval shorthand systems, which organize expenses into categories such as “extraordinary wages,” “liturgical ornaments,” “war expenses” or “wax account,” I encountered surprises: Women appear in the lists of salaried employees at the medieval papal court.

    Furthermore, they were involved in tasks that “touched” the leader of the church. Even a pope’s clothes need making, mending and washing. Women crafted an ornate style highly appreciated by the pontiffs – glorifying them with pure white linen and gold embroidery. The Vatican Apostolic Archives’ Introitus and Exitus, medieval financial records, provide substantial evidence that women made sacerdotal ornaments and garments.

    Between 1364-1374, the registers recorded the pope’s launderesses – women otherwise lost to history. Among them were Katherine, the wife of one Guillaume Bertrand; Bertrande of St. Spirit, who washed all the papal linens upon his election; and Alasacie de la Meynia, the wife of Peter Mathei, who did the pope’s laundry for the Christmas festivities of 1373 and is mentioned again in 1375.

    These women were all wives of officers at the papal court. Records identified them by their full name, which was not the case for everyone on the pope’s payroll. This is important: The records gave them real presence, unlike most female laborers.

    A woman doing laundry appears in the Codices Palatini germanici, a German medieval manuscript.
    Heidelberg University Library

    Later records were less clear. Between the 1380s and 1410s, liturgical garments were made and washed by various women, including the unnamed wife of Peter Bertrand, a doctor of law; Agnes, wife of Master Francis Ribalta, a physician of the pope; another Alasacie, wife of carpenter John Beulayga; and the unnamed wife of the pope’s head cook, Guido de Vallenbrugenti – alias Brucho.

    Only one woman, Marie Quigi Fernandi Sanci de Turre, appears without a male relative. As time progressed, women’s names were not systematically recorded.

    Most of these later women, too, were married to curial officers who maintained rank at court by working in trade, medicine or the military. Women were never paid directly; their husbands collected their salaries. Still, this was not “unseen” labor but a salaried occupation, explicitly recorded.

    A 15th-century painting of the papal palace in Avignon, from the artist workshop of Maître de Boucicaut.
    Bibliothèque Nationale via Wikimedia Commons

    Working day – and night

    Many other women immigrated to work in Avignon. According to a partial survey of the city’s heads of households in 1371, about 15% were women. Most had traveled far and wide – from elsewhere in present-day France, as well as Germany and Italy – to reach the papal court and a chance at employment.

    Of the total female heads of household, 20% declared an occupation. The range of these women’s trades is staggering. There were fruit-sellers, tailoresses, tavern-keepers, butchers, candlemakers, carpenters and stonecutters. Women in Avignon worked as fish-sellers, goldsmiths, glove-makers, pastry-bakers, spice merchants and chicken-sellers. They were sword-makers, furriers, booksellers, bread-resellers and bath-keepers.

    An illustration from ‘Theatrum sanitatis,’ a 13th-century Latin manuscript by Giovannino de Grassi.
    De Agostini Picture Library/Getty Images

    Bathhouses, the “stews,” were often brothels. Prostitution was considered a legal occupation in Avignon and controlled by the church. Marguerite de Porcelude, known as “the Huntress,” paid an annual tax to the diocese for her lodging. Several prostitutes rented tenements from the convent of St. Catherine, and Marguerite Busaffi, daughter of a prominent banker, owned a brothel in the city.

    In 1337, the marshal of the Roman court – the highest secular judicial officer – taxed prostitutes and procurers two sols per week. Pope Innocent VI, scandalized by the practice, annulled it in 1358.

    Still, because of the general taint associated with the sex trade, the church attempted to reform prostitutes and convert them into nuns. The Avignon popes locked them up in a special convent, the Repenties, set up far from the center of town.

    A brothel scene illustrated by Maïtre François in a 15th-century edition of St. Augustine’s book ‘City of God.’
    National Library of the Netherlands via Wikimedia Commons

    Eventually, the establishment became a form of prison for “unruly” women – those who were pregnant out of wedlock. But for some hundred years, groups of ladies of the night took vows and lived as nuns there, controlling the affairs of their own convent with an iron fist.

    In the 1370s, Pope Gregory XI offered the nuns and their donors a plenary indulgence, a forgiveness of sins. They followed a rule emphasizing that regardless of their pasts, abstinence and continence could make them spiritually “chaste.”

    The ladies of the convent left detailed records of the properties they acquired. In 1384, its leaders petitioned the papal treasury, demanding arrears they were owed from a priest’s donation – and received what was due. Few medieval women had the chutzpah to petition a court for past dues, much less the pope’s. The Repenties did.

    Joelle Rollo-Koster does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Butchers, bakers, candlestick-makers − and prostitutes: The women working behind the scenes in papal Avignon – https://theconversation.com/butchers-bakers-candlestick-makers-and-prostitutes-the-women-working-behind-the-scenes-in-papal-avignon-249345

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Colorado is tackling air pollution in vulnerable neighborhoods by regulating 5 air toxics

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jenni Shearston, Assistant Professor of Integrative Physiology, University of Colorado Boulder

    The Suncor Refinery in Commerce City, Colo., is a known air polluter. RJ Sangosti/The Denver Post via Getty Images

    The Globeville, Elyria-Swansea and Commerce City communities in metro Denver are choked by air pollution from nearby highways, an oil refinery and a Superfund site.

    While these neighborhoods have long suffered from air pollution, they’re not the only ones in Colorado.

    Now, Colorado is taking a major step to protect people from air pollutants that cause cancer or other major health problems, called “air toxics.” For the first time, the state is developing its own state-level air toxic health standards.

    In north Denver, the 80216 ZIP code has been named one of the most polluted in the country. Rocky Mountain PBS created a two-part documentary about the history of this area and the impact the pollution has on current residents.

    In January 2025 Colorado identified five air toxics as “priority” chemicals: benzene, ethylene oxide, formaldehyde, hexavalent chromium compounds and hydrogen sulfide.

    The state is in the process of setting health-based standards that will limit the amount of each chemical allowed in the air. Importantly, the standards will be designed to protect people exposed to the chemicals long term, such as those living near emission sources. Exposure to even low amounts of some chemicals, such as benzene, may lead to cancer.

    As a researcher studying chemical exposure and health, I measure and evaluate the impact of air pollution on people’s well-being.

    Colorado’s new regulations will draw on expert knowledge and community input to protect people’s health.

    Communities know what needs regulation

    In your own community, is there a highway that runs near your house or a factory with a bad odor? Maybe a gas station right around the corner? You likely already know many of the places that release air pollution near you.

    When state or local regulators work with community members to find out what air pollution sources communities are worried about, the partnership can lead to a system that better serves the public and reduces injustice.

    For example, partnerships between community advocates, scientists and regulators in heavily polluted and marginalized neighborhoods in New York and Boston have had big benefits. These partnerships resulted in both better scientific knowledge about how air pollution is connected to asthma and the placement of air monitors in neighborhoods impacted the most.

    In Colorado, the process to choose the five priority air toxics included consulting with multiple stakeholders. A technical working group provided input on which five chemicals should be prioritized from the larger list of 477 toxic air contaminants.

    The working group includes academics, members of nongovernmental organizations such as the Environmental Defense Fund – local government and regulated industries, such as the American Petroleum Institute.

    Community members often know which air toxics they want regulated.
    Hyoung Chang/Denver Post via GettyImages

    There were also opportunities for community participation during public meetings.

    At public hearings, community groups like GreenLatinos argued that formaldehyde, instead of acrolein, should be one of the prioritized air toxics because it can cause cancer.

    Additionally, formaldehyde is emitted in some Colorado communities that are predominantly people of color, according to advocates for those communities. These communities are already disproportionately impacted by high rates of respiratory disease and cancer.

    Other members of the community also weighed in.

    “One of my patients is a 16-year-old boy who tried to get a summer job working outside, but had to quit because air pollution made his asthma so bad that he could barely breathe,” wrote Logan Harper, a Denver-area family physician and advocate for Healthy Air and Water Colorado.

    How is air quality protected?

    At the national level, the Clean Air Act requires that six common air pollutants, such as ozone and carbon monoxide, are kept below specific levels. The act also regulates 188 hazardous air pollutants.

    Individual states are free to develop their own regulations, and several, including California and Minnesota, already have. States can set standards that are more health-protective than those in place nationally.

    Four of the five chemicals prioritized by Colorado are regulated federally. The fifth chemical, hydrogen sulfide, is not included on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s hazardous air pollutant list, but Colorado has decided to regulate it as an air toxic.

    State-level regulation is important because states can focus on air toxics specific to their state to make sure that the communities most exposed to air pollution are protected. One way to do this is to place air pollution monitors in the communities experiencing the worst air pollution.

    For example, Colorado is placing six new air quality monitors in locations around the state to measure concentrations of the five priority air toxics. It will also use an existing monitor in Grand Junction to measure air toxics. Two of the new monitors, located in Commerce City and La Salle, began operating in January 2024. The remainder will start monitoring the air by July 2025.

    When Colorado chose the sites, it prioritized communities that are overly impacted by social and environmental hazards. To do this, officials used indexes like the Colorado EnviroScreen, which combines information about pollution, health and economic factors to identify communities that are overly burdened by hazards.

    The Commerce City monitor is located in Adams City, a neighborhood that has some of the worst pollution in the state. The site has air toxics emissions that are worse than 95% of communities in Colorado.

    Air toxics and health

    The five air toxics that Colorado selected all have negative impacts on health. Four are known to cause cancer.

    Benzene, perhaps the most well known because of its ability to cause blood cancer, is one. But it also has a number of other health impacts, including dampening the ability of the immune system and impacting the reproductive system by decreasing sperm count. Benzene is in combustion-powered vehicle exhaust and is emitted during oil and gas production and refinement.

    Ethylene oxide can cause cancer and irritates the nervous and respiratory systems. Symptoms of long-term exposure can include headaches, sore throat, shortness of breath and others. Ethylene oxide is used to sterilize medical equipment, and as of 2024, it was used by four facilities in Colorado.

    Formaldehyde is also a cancer-causing agent, and exposure is associated with asthma in children. This air toxic is used in the manufacture of a number of products like household cleaners and building materials. It is also emitted by oil and gas sources, including during fracking.

    Hexavalent chromium compounds can cause several types of cancer, as well as skin and lung diseases such as asthma and rhinitis. A major source of hexavalent chromium is coal-fired power plants, of which Colorado currently has six in operation, though these plants are scheduled to close in the next five years. Other sources of hexavalent chromium include chemical and other manufacturing.

    Finally, long-term exposure to hydrogen sulfide can cause low blood pressure, headaches and a range of other symptoms, and has been associated with neurological impacts such as psychological disorders. Some sources of hydrogen sulfide include oil refineries and wastewater treatment plants.

    Read more of our stories about Colorado.

    Jenni Shearston has received funding from the United States National Institutes of Health.

    – ref. Colorado is tackling air pollution in vulnerable neighborhoods by regulating 5 air toxics – https://theconversation.com/colorado-is-tackling-air-pollution-in-vulnerable-neighborhoods-by-regulating-5-air-toxics-248520

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How early voting on campuses can boost election turnout – not only for students but for residents, too

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Stephen C. Phillips, Lecturer in Political Science, Clemson University

    NextGen, a youth and democracy group, encouraging University of Central Florida students to vote early on campus in the 2018 midterms, Orlando, Florida, Oct. 25, 2018. Willie J. Allen Jr./AP Images

    Republican-led legislatures in several U.S. states, from Indiana to Oklahoma, are considering imposing restrictions on early voting, from shortening the number of days to tightening ID requirements for voters.

    Florida, by contrast, offers several tools to increase voting access, including for young people – a historically low-turnout group. Floridians may preregister to vote at age 16 and request vote-by-mail ballots with no justification needed. And starting in 2018, Florida election officials began offering in-person early-voting sites on college and university campuses after a federal judge nullified a 2014 rule barring higher education facilities from serving as early-voting sites.

    I am a lecturer of political science who studies American political development and public law, and my research suggests that expanding on-campus early-voting sites can boost turnout in U.S. elections by making voting more convenient – not only for students but for residents of surrounding communities too.

    Campus voting is popular

    I have been tracking votes cast at on-campus early-voting sites in Florida since 2018. The data shows these voting sites are increasingly popular.

    My research shows that 59,205 votes were cast across 12 Florida campuses hosting early-voting sites in 2018. That number increased to 92,344 at 11 locations in 2020 and jumped again – by about 50,000 votes – during the 2024 election.

    During 14 days of early voting in October and November 2024, 142,085 Floridians cast ballots across 16 on-campus early-voting sites across the state. One-quarter of them – 35,245 voters – took advantage of three campus sites in Miami-Dade County, the state’s most populous county.

    A 2019 study by the Andrew Goodman Foundation, a nonprofit promoting youth participation in democracy, determined that overall voter turnout in Florida increased during the 2018 election, in comparison with previous midterm elections, in part “due to the added convenience” of on-campus voting.

    Greater access to in-person early voting also increases the likelihood of a person’s ballot counting, since mail-in ballots tend to be rejected at higher rates than in-person votes.

    Who votes on campus?

    On-campus early voting makes elections more accessible for all voters.

    My data from 2024 shows that 35% of voters at Florida’s 16 on-campus early-voting sites were registered Democrats and 32% were registered Republicans. The remaining 33% registered with minor parties or had no party affiliation.

    These results differ from voter registration data from 2024 in Florida, which shows 40% of registered voters as Republicans, 31% as Democrats and 29% as other. That is to be expected, because studies of on-campus early voters in Florida find that these voters are younger and more diverse than those at other polling places.

    Both students and local residents may vote at on-campus polling sites in Florida.

    A 2019 report from the Andrew Goodman Foundation found “Hispanic and Black voters disproportionately cast ballots” at campus locations alongside college-age voters. It also said that 56% of early voters at campus sites were under age 30.

    Differences in party turnout at tracked sites, then, may reflect the higher share of Gen Z voters registered as Democrats or with no party affiliation.

    Obstacles to voting access

    Before casting a ballot, voters face four decisions. First, whether to register to vote. Second, whether to vote in an election. Third, how to vote: early in-person, vote-by-mail or on Election Day. Fourth, whom or what to vote for.

    Turnout rates among young voters vary widely across states, but in states where on-campus voting locations are frequent – such as Arizona, Florida and North Carolina – youth turnout tends to be higher.

    In the 2024 election, people ages 18 to 29 represented 14% of overall Florida voters – roughly on par with their proportion of the state’s population. It is difficult to make a direct comparison between the voting age population and voter turnout rates because of voter eligibility rules.

    But, for reference, 18-to-29-year-olds made up 14% of voters in Texas in 2024, too – yet are estimated to be nearly 17% of the population.

    Several states have rules seemingly designed to hinder young people from voting. After the 2020 election, Ohio passed a law making it harder for out-of-state students to vote by restricting the documents voters may use to prove their residency. Data from the Campus Vote Project shows several states, including Texas, Iowa and Missouri, do not accept student IDs as valid identification to vote. Oklahoma is currently considering similar legislation.

    While turnout rates reflect many factors, including the popularity of the candidates, low voter turnout is often associated with increased difficulty in casting a ballot.

    Florida shows that college campuses play an important role in increasing access to voting, not just for students but for residents in the surrounding communities, too. Nearly 3% of the 5.4 million people who voted early in person statewide in 2024 cast their ballot at a campus polling site, up from 2.2% in 2018.

    Election officials, university leaders and lawmakers know that having on-campus early-voting sites is a successful method for engaging voters. As one first-time voter at York Technical College in South Carolina told South Carolina Public Radio in 2024, the convenient location “definitely encourages me to vote.”

    Across the country, from Iowa to Texas, many schools and election officials host early on-campus voting.

    In other places, however, state and local laws, or decisions by local officials, prevent many campuses from hosting polling sites.

    For example, Ohio limits the number of early-voting sites to one per county. That meant that, in 2024, Ohio State University had no campus early-voting sites, and for its students the closest place to vote in person was about 6 miles (10 kilometers) away.

    In South Carolina, though some campuses do host polling sites, the university where I teach, Clemson, does not. In 2024, students had to travel four miles to reach the nearest in-person early-voting location in Pickens County.

    A recent study found that long distances and travel times to polling locations constitute “a barrier to voting.” And students, as a population, often have particularly limited access to transportation.

    Further studies will show more precisely how on-campus early voting expands the voter universe. But my vote tracking and other new research provides some clues, suggesting that early in-person voting on campus increases early voting and diversifies the electorate.

    Expanding on-campus early voting, then, is not just about convenience. It is about empowering the next generation of voters and strengthening democracy.

    Stephen C. Phillips does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How early voting on campuses can boost election turnout – not only for students but for residents, too – https://theconversation.com/how-early-voting-on-campuses-can-boost-election-turnout-not-only-for-students-but-for-residents-too-247161

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s claims of vast presidential powers run up against Article 2 of the Constitution and exceed previous presidents’ power grabs

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Claire B. Wofford, Associate Professor of Political Science, College of Charleston

    How much power does the president really have? fotojog-iStock/Getty Images Plus

    Those who wrote and wrangled over America’s Constitution might be troubled by the second presidency of Donald J. Trump.

    While almost all modern presidents flex their muscles in the initial stages of their administration, the first weeks of the second Trump presidency have seen a rapid-fire, often dizzying array of executive actions that have sparked heated, even virulent, disputes among politicians, the media and citizens about how much power the president of the United States should have.

    Historians differ about the framers’ precise intent regarding the executive branch. But the general consensus is twofold: First, domestic lawmaking power, including the critical “power of the purse,” would rest with Congress; second, the president would not be the equivalent of a king.

    Fresh off the coercion of King George III, the framers were in no mood to recreate the British system. They debated extensively about whether the executive branch should be led by more than one person. A single chief executive was eventually favored in part because other institutional checks, including the selection of the president by the American people and Congress’ ability to impeach, seemed sufficient. And, of course, Congress would retain lawmaking powers.

    Almost immediately, however, Congress began delegating some of that power to the presidency. As the nation grew and Congress found itself unable to manage the ensuing demands, it put more and more policymaking powers into the executive branch.

    Congress frequently passed vaguely worded statutes and left important details largely to the president about how to manage, for instance, immigration or the environment. President-as-policymaker and the development of an immense federal bureaucracy that is now in the crosshairs of Trump and Elon Musk was one unintended result.

    Whether the current American president has become a king, particularly after the sweeping grant of immunity in 2024 by the Supreme Court and the seeming acquiescence by Congress to Trump’s latest directives, remains up for debate.

    In 2019, Trump said, “And then I have an Article 2, where I have the right to do whatever I want as President.”

    I’m a constitutional law scholar, and I can comfortably respond: With all due respect, Mr. President, no. Article 2 does not grant the president unlimited power.

    Here’s what the Constitution does say – and doesn’t say – about the power of the president.

    An 1881 depiction of the 1787 Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia.
    Alfred Kappes and Frederick Juengling, New York Public Library Digital Collections

    Exploiting imprecise language

    The Constitution divides power among the three branches of the federal government – executive, legislative and judicial.

    Article 1 specifies in great detail the structure and powers of Congress. In comparison, Article 2 is relatively short, outlining the powers of the executive branch, which now encompasses the president, his advisers and various departments and agencies.

    There is no extensive laundry list of enumerated powers for the executive branch. Instead, there is a smattering. The president is given the power to “grant reprieves and pardons,” to “receive ambassadors,” and, with the consent of the Senate, “make treaties” and “appoint” various federal officials. The president is also the “Commander in Chief.”

    Aside from the ability to veto legislation and “recommend” policies to Congress, the president was intended to serve primarily as an administrator of congressional statutes, not a policymaker.

    It is other, much less precise language in Article 2 that undergirds much of what Trump claims he can do – and what opponents say he cannot.

    Specifically, Section 1 states, “The Executive power shall be vested in a President,” and Section 3 requires the President to “take care that the laws be faithfully executed.”

    On their face, these “vesting” and “take care” clauses seem relatively innocuous, reflecting the framers’ view that the President would implement rather than create the nation’s public policy. Congress would have that prerogative, with the president generally confined to ensuring those laws were carried out appropriately.

    Trump and his allies, however, have seized on these words as authorizing unlimited control over each of the 4 million employees of the executive branch and, through program changes and spending freezes, allowing him to exert significant policymaking power for the nation.

    The administration has now surpassed what even the strongest proponents of presidential power may have once argued. Trump adviser Stephen Miller has said, “All executive power is vested in the one man elected by the whole nation. No unelected bureaucrat has any ‘independent’ authority.”

    Yet the overriding goal of the framers at the Constitutional Convention was to avoid creating an American version of the British monarchy, with a single, unaccountable ruler in charge of national policymaking, free to implement his vision at will.

    In the view of Trump’s critics, this is precisely what has occurred.

    President Donald Trump signs an executive order on Feb. 14, 2025, at the White House.
    Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

    Going around Congress

    Trump is not the first president to use Article 2’s ambiguity to push the boundaries of executive authority.

    Particularly since the end of World War II and the Franklin D. Roosevelt administration, presidents have seized upon the same phrases in the Constitution to put their particular political agendas into action.

    Barack Obama, for instance, famously touted his “phone and pen” as a way to make policy when Congress refused.

    The vehicle for most executive branch policymaking, including by Trump, has been the executive order. Executive orders are mentioned nowhere in the Constitution, but presidents have, since the very earliest days of the republic, issued these directives under their “executive” and “take care” power. Since the founding, there have been tens of thousands of executive orders, used by Democratic and Republican presidents alike.

    Often, executive orders are relatively minor. They form commissions, set holiday schedules or brand an agency with a new seal. Dozens are signed unnoticed during every administration.

    In other instances, they have sweeping and substantive effect.

    Among those, Abraham Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation freed Southern slaves, Franklin Roosevelt placed Japanese Americans in internment camps, Harry S. Truman integrated the military, and Joe Biden forgave student loans. Trump has attempted to redefine birthright citizenship – a move which, for now, has been stopped by federal courts.

    Because they have the force of law and remain in place until revoked by a subsequent president, executive orders have often faced legal challenges. Currently, there are more than 80 lawsuits challenging Trump’s executive orders for violating both federal law and the Constitution. Some orders, but not all, have been halted by lower courts.

    But if many presidents have believed that Article 2 of the Constitution gives them the power to make policy via executive order, the nation’s highest court hasn’t always agreed.

    Out of bounds?

    Requests to the high court to rule on Trump’s executive orders are a virtual certainty.

    Historically, the Supreme Court has struck down some executive orders as outside the scope of Article 2. As the court wrote in 1952, “In the framework of our Constitution, the President’s power to see that the laws are faithfully executed refutes the idea that he is to be a lawmaker.”

    Whether Trump’s various directives are within his Article 2 authority or violate both the letter and spirit of the Constitution awaits determination, most likely by the U.S. Supreme Court. Much of the genius of that document is its often ambiguous language, letting the government adapt to a changing nation.

    Yet that very ambiguity has allowed both sides of today’s political divide to claim that their version of executive power is faithful to the framers’ vision. As with the Civil War and the Civil Rights Movements, such a dispute could very well drive the U.S. to the breaking point.

    Congress or the American people may eventually decide that Trump has gone too far. The next presidential election is years away, but Congress still retains the power of impeachment. More realistically, they could rein him in via legislation, as they did with President Richard Nixon.

    For now, it is up to the judicial system to evaluate what the administration has done. Courts will need to use their constitutionally mandated authority to evaluate whether Trump has exceeded his.

    In 2022, I donated $20 to ActBlue.

    – ref. Trump’s claims of vast presidential powers run up against Article 2 of the Constitution and exceed previous presidents’ power grabs – https://theconversation.com/trumps-claims-of-vast-presidential-powers-run-up-against-article-2-of-the-constitution-and-exceed-previous-presidents-power-grabs-249662

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting prioritizes ‘real’ independence from the US − but what does that mean and is it achievable?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Garret Martin, Senior Professorial Lecturer, Co-Director Transatlantic Policy Center, American University School of International Service

    Germany’s presumptive new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, faces challenges both at home and overseas following his conservative alliance’s election victory on Feb. 23, 2025.

    A strong showing from the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) – which Merz, in line with other mainstream German parties, refuses to countenance as a coalition party as part of an unofficial “firewall” against extremism – will make forming a functioning government tricky.

    But in the moments after the election results, it was the future of the European Union and its relationship with America that was his immediate focus: “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.”

    To understand why that is such a concern for Germany now and what “real independence” from Washington means, The Conversation U.S. turned to Garret Martin, an expert on U.S.-Europe relations at American University, for answers.

    What prompted Merz’s ‘real independence’ line?

    Presumably it was a response to a series of recent announcements and actions by the Trump administration that have shocked the German political establishment. This includes the sudden revelation that the U.S. would negotiate directly with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, but seemingly without the Europeans or Ukrainians involved. That development went down like a lead balloon in Berlin, especially considering Germany’s significant financial support of Kyiv since 2022.

    Moreover, the German establishment has also frowned at a series of recent declarations by members of the Trump administration. Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, in which he harshly criticized Europe for allegedly undermining freedom of expression, provoked clear pushback from German leaders. Trump, for his part, hardly endeared himself to his German allies when he denounced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “dictator.”

    And, of course, Elon Musk’s interference in the German elections – as well as his open support for the far-right Alternative for Germany – provoked a fierce response from Merz. The then-candidate promised that Musk would need to be prepared for legal consequences for his meddling.

    Elon Musk addresses, via videolink, the election campaign launch rally of the far-right Alternative for Germany on Jan. 25, 2025.
    Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    How would this ‘real independence’ be achieved?

    Defining what “real independence” means and being able to implement such a drastic change in transatlantic relations will be a tall order. If by “real independence” Merz means that Germany would no longer rely on the U.S. for its security, then that would require several major steps.

    Merz would first need to convince his likely coalition partners, the Social Democrats, that this is the right goal. After all, German governments are bound by very detailed coalition agreements. Second, Merz would need to significantly increase German defense spending. As it stands, Germany’s annual defense budget is slightly over US$90 billion, or 2% of its GDP. But a recent study by the economic think tank Bruegel suggests Berlin would need to increase its budget by $145 billion annually to defend Europe without the assistance of the U.S.

    But to achieve this, Merz will likely need to increase defense spending by such a level that it will contravene the country’s “debt brake.” This 2009 constitutional rule essentially caps the annual deficit that the government can take on. But overturning this mechanism would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers of the German Parliament. Merz’s Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union party won 28.6% of the vote – and even with the support of the country’s main center-left party, the Social Democrats, Merz will fall short of the parliamentary votes needed.

    Finally, “real independence” would also require convincing other European Union partners to join him down that path. Assuming that the Trump administration continues its current trajectory and further undermines NATO, the EU would have to step in to become a more prominent security actor for the continent. It might also require, as Merz hinted, that the United Kingdom and France be ready to share their nuclear weapons, since the U.S. may not be trusted anymore to defend NATO countries.

    All of these steps would cover “real independence” only in the security sphere and not touch other crucial policy areas, such as trade and energy. And that would be an equally tall order given the level of economic ties binding Germany to the U.S., as well as the looming threat of tariffs.

    What does this mean for German-US relations?

    Merz’s “real independence” statement would have been noteworthy coming from any German chancellor. But it is even more striking when one considers the fact that Merz is a committed transatlanticist who deeply admires the U.S. and counts Ronald Reagan as one of his role models.

    At 69, Merz came of age during the final years of the Cold War, when the U.S. played a key role in enabling German reunification. He worked for years for Atlantik-Brücke, a lobbying group pushing for closer transatlantic ties. And he has, by his own account, traveled more than 100 times to the U.S.

    Independence will not likely mean a complete divorce between the U.S. and Germany – the ties binding the two countries, whether economic, cultural or political, run too deep. However, we can expect that Berlin will not hesitate to take a more combative approach toward Washington when necessary, so to protect German and European interests. As Merz pointed out, it is clear that the Trump administration does “not care much about the fate of Europe.”

    What does this signal for Merz’s view of Germany’s position in the EU?

    Merz’s win will certainly lead to important shifts in Germany’s position in the EU, and could be a major boost for a union in need of leadership. His predecessor, Olaf Scholz, was hampered by a weak economy, divisions within his coalition and indecisive leadership in Europe. Moreover, poor relations with French President Emmanuel Macron also stalled the Franco-German partnership, normally a key engine of leadership in the EU.

    Merz certainly plans to take a very distinct approach toward the EU than his predecessor. His calls for “real independence” will certainly be very welcome in France, which has long called for Europe to be more responsible for its own security. As such, it opens up the possibility of far closer ties between Paris and Berlin than we saw in recent years. Moreover, Merz, with his more hawkish position toward Russia, could be counted on to provide greater support for Ukraine.

    Garret Martin receives funding from the European Union for the Transatlantic Policy Center, which he co-directs.

    – ref. Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting prioritizes ‘real’ independence from the US − but what does that mean and is it achievable? – https://theconversation.com/germanys-chancellor-in-waiting-prioritizes-real-independence-from-the-us-but-what-does-that-mean-and-is-it-achievable-250708

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Selenium is an essential nutrient named after the Greek goddess of the Moon − crucial to health, it may help prevent and treat cancer

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Aliasger K. Salem, Professor of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Iowa

    Selenium is found in trace amounts in living organisms, soil and plants. Nazarii Neshcherenskyi/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    Selenium is a nutrient that plays a crucial role in human health, contributing to the thyroid and immune function, DNA repair, and cardiovascular and cognitive health.

    It acts as an antioxidant – substances that protect cells from unstable molecules that can damage DNA, proteins and cell membranes. It can even protect against cancer.

    Selenium is a vital trace element found in living organisms, soil and plants, and your body needs only a small amount of it to function. The recommended dietary allowance for selenium in adults is 55 micrograms per day, with an upper limit of 400 micrograms. In comparison, adults need between 900 to 10,000 micrograms daily of copper, another trace element, and between 8,000 to 40,000 micrograms of the trace element zinc.

    An excess or deficiency of selenium can have significant health consequences. In my work as a pharmaceutical science researcher, my colleagues and I study the potential use of selenium to boost the effectiveness of chemotherapy for cancer treatment.

    A dose of selenium

    Selenium was first discovered in 1817 by chemist Jöns Jacob Berzelius while analyzing an impurity in a batch of sulfuric acid produced in a factory in Sweden. Berzelius initially thought the material was the element tellurium, but he eventually realized that it was actually an unknown substance at the time. He named the mineral after Selene, the Greek goddess of the Moon, because of its similarity to tellurium, which had been named after the Roman goddess of the Earth.

    Selenium exists in both organic and inorganic forms. Organic compounds contain carbon atoms and are typically derived from living organisms, while inorganic compounds do not have carbon atoms and generally originate from nonliving sources. Your cells chemically convert between these forms to carry out various physiological functions.

    Selenium deficiency is a significant health issue, particularly in regions with selenium-poor soils, such as parts of China, Africa and Europe. Low selenium levels are associated with Keshan disease, a fatal heart condition, and Kashin-Beck disease, which affects joints and bones. Deficiency also weakens immune function, increasing susceptibility to infections.

    Brazil nuts contain particularly high levels of selenium.
    R.Tsubin/Moment via Getty Images

    Consuming too much selenium is also an issue. Oversupplementation or excess environmental exposure can lead to selenosis, a condition with symptoms such as brittle hair and nails, digestive issues, skin rashes and neurological symptoms such as irritability and fatigue. In severe cases, selenium toxicity can result in organ failure and death.

    Selenium has a narrow therapeutic window, which is the dosage range that provides safe and effective treatment with minimal harmful side effects. For example, selenium can either increase or decrease your body’s immune function, depending on the dose. Adequate levels of selenium strengthen your immune cells’ ability to fight infections and tumors, while excessive selenium intake can suppress immune responses by damaging immune tissues.

    Selenium and cancer prevention

    Selenium may have the potential to treat and prevent cancer.

    Scientists have long studied selenium’s role in cancer prevention. Initially suspected to be a carcinogen, later studies found it had protective effects against liver damage. In the 1960s. researchers proposed that selenium could be used to prevent cancer, a concept that gained further traction in the 1990s.

    However, large-scale clinical trials have produced mixed results. The Selenium and Vitamin E Cancer Prevention Trial was a study of over 35,500 men that ran from 2001 to 2004. They found that taking selenium daily did not reduce prostate cancer risk and may even increase the risk of prostate cancer in men with already high selenium levels.

    Findings from a study conducted from 1983 to 1996, the Nutritional Prevention of Cancer Trial, suggested selenium may protect against prostate and other cancers. But researchers also observed a heightened incidence of nonmelanoma skin cancer among participants.

    These conflicting results may be due to the different forms of selenium each study tested, as well as differences in baseline selenium levels among participants. Other studies have found that selenium-contaminated water in a municipality of Italy has been linked to an increased risk of melanoma.

    The antioxidant effects of selenium vary depending on its dose.
    Razaghi et al./EJC, CC BY-SA

    Selenium and cancer treatment

    Selenium may also have the potential to stop cancer from spreading.

    My research focuses on the potential of using selenium to supplement chemotherapy for cancer treatment. Selenium compounds such as methylseleninic acid, or MSA, and seleno-L-methionine, or SLM, show promise in targeting proteins that drive tumor progression and treatment resistance. Studies from my team and I have found that MSA can modulate key biochemical pathways related to kidney cancer by reducing levels of proteins that influence tumor growth and immune evasion. We also observed that SLM may slow kidney tumor growth in mice without toxic side effects.

    More significantly, in a Phase 1 clinical trial, we found that combining SLM with the chemotherapy drug axitinib was effective in treating metastatic kidney cancer in patients, with minimal side effects. Of the 27 patients we treated, over half saw their tumors shrink in size, with a median overall survival of nearly 20 months. These findings suggest that selenium may have a synergistic effect on chemotherapy by making it more effective.

    Further investigation into how selenium may help overcome treatment resistance and what doses are optimal will clarify its potential as a viable addition to cancer treatment.

    Striking the right balance

    Whether as an immune booster or potential treatment for disease, the significance of selenium in human health is undeniable.

    Eating selenium-rich foods – such as Brazil nuts, seafood, whole grains and eggs – can help sustain optimal nutrient levels. In regions with selenium-deficient soils, supplementation with medical supervision may be necessary.

    The fine line between benefit and harm underscores the importance of balanced intake and personalized approaches to selenium supplementation. As research continues, I believe selenium’s multifaceted role in health will become more clear.

    Aliasger K. Salem receives funding from the National Institutes of Health. He serves on the Executive Board of the American Association for Pharmaceutical Scientists.

    – ref. Selenium is an essential nutrient named after the Greek goddess of the Moon − crucial to health, it may help prevent and treat cancer – https://theconversation.com/selenium-is-an-essential-nutrient-named-after-the-greek-goddess-of-the-moon-crucial-to-health-it-may-help-prevent-and-treat-cancer-248548

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Generative AI is most useful for the things we care about the least

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By John P. Nelson, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Ethics and Societal Implications of Artificial Intelligence, Georgia Institute of Technology

    The creative process involves choices that lead artists to places they couldn’t have imagined. Eoneren/E+ via Getty Images

    Generative AI tools such as ChatGPT and Midjourney can produce text, images and videos far more quickly than any one person can accomplish by hand.

    But as someone who studies the societal impacts of AI, I’ve noticed an interesting trade-off: The technology can certainly save time, but it does so precisely to the extent that the user is willing to surrender control over the final product.

    For this reason, generative AI is probably most useful for things we care about the least.

    Ceding creative control

    Let’s use the example of AI image generators. You probably have a rough idea of how they work. Just type what you want – “a panda surfing,” “a piece of toast that is also a car” – and the generative tool draws it.

    But this glosses over the countless possible iterations of the desired image.

    Will the image appear as a watercolor painting or a pencil sketch? How lifelike will the panda be? How big is the wave? Is the toast-car parked or moving? Is there anyone inside of it?

    When the images are generated, these questions have been answered – but not by the user. Rather, the generative AI tool has “decided.”

    Of course, the user can be more specific: Imitate the style of Monet. Make the wave twice the height of the panda. Maybe the panda should look worried, since it isn’t used to surfing.

    You can also pop open an image editor and modify the output yourself, down to the individual pixel. But, of course, drafting detailed instructions and revising the image take time, effort and skill. Generative AI promises to lighten the load. But as every manager knows, exercising control is work.

    The devil is in the details

    In all art and expression, power lies in the details.

    In great paintings, not every brushstroke is planned – but each is carefully considered and accepted. And its overall effect on the viewer depends on all those considered brushstrokes together.

    Filmmakers shoot take after take of the same scene, each subtly or radically different. Only a small fraction of that footage makes it into the final cut – the fraction that the editors feel does the job best. Great artists use their judgment to ensure every detail helps to achieve the effect they want.

    Of course, there’s nothing new about putting someone else in charge of the details. People are used to delegating authority – even about matters of expression – to marketers, speechwriters, social media managers and the like.

    Generative AI makes a new sort of contractor available. It’s always on call, and in certain ways it is very technically competent.

    But compared with skilled humans, it has a limited ability to understand what you want. Moreover, it lacks intention, contemplation and the comprehensive mastery of detail that yield great expressive achievements – or even the comprehensive idiosyncrasy that spawns very unique ones.

    Ask ChatGPT for a film script, plus casting and shooting instructions. It will give you neither Francis Ford Coppola’s masterpiece “The Godfather” nor Tommy Wiseau’s bizarre “The Room.”

    You could, perhaps, approach a masterpiece, or a true oddity. But to do so, you’d have to exercise more and more time, more and more effort, and more and more control.

    An era of ‘cheap speech’

    What generative AI makes possible, above all, is low-effort, low-control expression.

    In the time I took to write and revise this article, I could have used ChatGPT to generate 200 grammatically correct, well-structured articles, and then I could have posted them online without even reading them. I wouldn’t have had to carefully parse each word and decide whether it really helped me make my point. I wouldn’t have even had to decide whether I agreed with any of the AI-generated write-ups.

    This is not a merely hypothetical example. Low-quality, AI-generated e-books of ambiguous provenance are already making their way into online vendors’ catalogs – and into the libraries those vendors serve.

    Similarly, using image generators, I could now flood the internet with superficially appealing images, dedicating only a fraction of a second to decide whether any of them express what I want them to express or achieve what I want them to achieve.

    But in doing so, I would not just be skipping over drudgery. Writing, drawing and painting are not just labor but processes of considering, reviewing and deciding exactly what I want to put out into the world. By skipping over those processes, I surrender that decision-making process to the AI tool.

    Some scholars argue that the internet has produced an era of “cheap speech.” People no longer have to invest a lot of resources – nor even face the judgment of their neighbors – to broadcast whatever they want to the world.

    With generative AI, expression is even cheaper. You don’t even have to make things yourself to put them out into the world. For the first time in human history, the ability to produce writing, art and expression has been decoupled from the necessity of actually paying attention to what you’re making or saying.

    Generative AI allows you to blow through the thousands of little decisions that go into a work of art.
    C.J. Burton/The Image Bank via Getty Images

    When intention and effort matter

    I suspect that great art, journalism and scholarship will still demand great attention and effort. Some of that effort may even include custom-developing AI tools tailored to an individual artist’s concerns.

    But unless people become much better at curation, great work will be increasingly difficult to locate amid the flood of low-effort content, which is also known as “AI slop.”

    It’s appropriate that generative AI becomes more useful the sloppier its users are willing to be – that is, the less they care about the details.

    I could end with some dire prognosis – that working artists and writers will be replaced with mediocre automation, that online discourse will get even stupider, that people will isolate themselves in personalized cocoons of AI-generated media.

    All these things are possible. But it’s probably more useful to offer a suggestion to you, the reader.

    When you need an image or a piece of writing, take a moment to decide: How important are the details? Would the process of making this yourself, or working with a collaborator or contractor, be useful? Would it yield a better output, or give me the chance to learn, or begin or strengthen a relationship, or help you reflect on something important to you?

    In short, is it worth putting in real care and effort? The answer will not always be yes. But it often will.

    Art, writing, films – these are not just products, but acts. They are things humans make, through a process of thousands of little decisions that encompass what we stand for and what we want to say.

    So when it comes to art, expression and argument, if you want it done right, it’s probably still best to do it yourself.

    John P. Nelson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Generative AI is most useful for the things we care about the least – https://theconversation.com/generative-ai-is-most-useful-for-the-things-we-care-about-the-least-249329

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: If US attempts World Bank retreat, the China-led AIIB could be poised to step in – and provide a model of global cooperation

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Tamar Gutner, Associate Professor, American University

    Donald Trump is no fan of international organizations. Just hours after taking office on Jan 20, 2025, the U.S. president announced his intention to withdraw from the World Health Organization and the Paris agreement on climate change.

    Could the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank be next?

    Certainly, supporters of the twin institutions – that have formed the backbone of global economic order for 80 years – are concerned. A Trump-ordered review of Washington’s support of all international organizations has led to fears of the U.S. reducing funding or pulling it altogether.

    But any shrinking of U.S. leadership in international financial institutions would, I believe, run counter to the administration’s ostensible geopolitical goals, creating a vacuum for China to step into and take on a bigger global role. In particular, weakening the World Bank and other multilateral development banks, or MDBs, that have a large U.S. presence could present an opportunity for a little-known, relatively new Chinese-led international organization: the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank – which, since its inception, has supported the very multilateralism the U.S. is attacking.

    AIIB’s paradoxical role

    The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was created by China nine years ago as a way to invest in infrastructure and other related sectors in Asia, while promoting “regional cooperation and partnership in addressing development challenges by working in close collaboration with other multilateral and bilateral development institutions.”

    Since then, it has served as an example of an international body willing to deeply cooperate with other major multilateral organizations and follow international rules and norms of development banking.

    This may run counter to the image of Beijing’s global efforts portrayed by China hawks, of which there are many in the Trump administration, who often present a vision of a China intent on undermining the Western-led liberal international order.

    But as a number of scholars and other China experts have suggested, Beijing’s strategies in global economic governance are often nuanced, with actions that both support and undermine the liberal global order.

    As I explore in my new book, it is clear that today the AIIB is a paradox: an institution connected to the rules and norms of the liberal international order, but one created by an illiberal government.

    Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei speaks during the signing ceremony of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank on Oct. 24, 2014, in Beijing.
    Takaki Yajima-Pool/Getty Images

    The AIIB is deeply tied to the rules-based order as displayed through its many cooperative connections with other major multilateral development banks, such as the World Bank and the Japan-led Asian Development Bank.

    As such, the AIIB may present a Chinese counterpoint in a landscape where U.S. leadership is receding.

    The cooperative design of the AIIB

    For decades, multilateral development banks have served the important task of lending billions of dollars a year to support economic and social development.

    They can be vital sources of funding for poverty reduction, inclusive economic growth and sustainable development, with a newer emphasis on climate change. These international lenders have also been remarkably durable in today’s climate of fragmentation and crisis, with member nations actively considering ways of further strengthening them.

    At the same time, MDBs perennially face criticism from civil society organizations who highlight areas of weak performance and are concerned about potential downsides of the major MDBs’ greater emphasis on working more closely with the private sector. MDB expert Chris Humphrey has also noted that major “MDBs were built around a set of geopolitical and economic power relationships that are coming apart before our eyes.”

    When Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 proposed creating the AIIB to lend for infrastructure development in Asia, there was a lot of suspicion among major nations about China’s intentions.

    The Obama administration responded to the move by urging other countries not to join. Its concern was that China would use lending to gain further influence in the region, but without adhering to strong environmental and social standards.

    Nonetheless, all the other major nonborrowing nations, with the exception of Japan, joined the new bank. Today, the AIIB is the second-largest multilateral development bank in terms of member countries, behind only the World Bank. It currently has 110 member nations, which translates to over 80% of the global population. With US$100 billion in capital, it is one of the medium-sized multilateral lenders.

    From the get-go, the AIIB was designed to be cooperative. Jin Liqun, who became the bank’s first president, is a longtime multilateralist with a long career at China’s finance ministry and past positions on the boards of the World Bank and the Global Environmental Facility, as well as a vice presidency of the Asian Development Bank.

    The international group of experts that helped design the AIIB also included former executive directors and staff from the IMF and other development banks, as well as two Americans with long careers at the World Bank who played leading roles in designing the bank’s articles of agreement and its environmental and social framework.

    How the AIIB took its cue from others

    The bank fits into the landscape of other multilateral development banks in a variety of ways. The AIIB’s charter is directly modeled on the Asian Development Bank’s foundation, and built into the AIIB’s charter is the bank’s mission of promoting “regional cooperation and partnership in addressing development challenges.”

    The AIIB shares similar norms and policies with other major multilateral development banks, including its environmental and social standards.

    Alongside borrowing foundational principles, the AIIB also works in close conjunction with its peers. The World Bank initially ran the AIIB’s treasury operations. The AIIB has also co-financed a high percentage of its projects with other multilateral development banks, particularly in its first years.

    In a recent sign of cooperation, in 2023, a deal between the AIIB and World Bank’s International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) saw the AIIB issue up to $1 billion in guarantees against IBRD sovereign-backed loans. This increased the IBRD’s ability to lend more money, while diversifying the AIIB’s loan portfolio.

    As of Feb. 6, 2025, the AIIB has 306 approved projects totaling $59 billion. Energy and transportation are its two largest sectors of lending. Recently approved projects include loans to support wind power plants in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and a solar plant in India. India, which has a bumpy relationship with China, is one of the bank’s largest borrowers, along with Turkey and Indonesia.

    Cooperating and competing with China

    From its birth until recently, the multilateral AIIB has repeatedly distinguished itself from China’s bilateral initiatives. Chief among those is China’s Belt and Road Initiative, an umbrella term for infrastructure lending by Chinese institutions that has been criticized for lacking transparency and accountability.

    Indeed, some Belt and Road Initiative-linked projects have faced concerns about corruption, costs and the opacity of the loan agreements.

    In the past several years, the AIIB has made more mention of synergy with Belt and Road lenders, and the bank now hosts the secretariat of a facility, the Multilateral Cooperation Center for Development Finance, that offers grants and support to developing countries seeking to finance infrastructure in countries where Belt and Road lending takes place. This may blur the line between the AIIB and lending under the Belt and Road umbrella, but it does not appear to weaken the bank’s standards.

    Concerns about the level of Chinese government influence at the AIIB are not new. Canada froze its ties with the bank in June 2023, pending a review of allegations by a Canadian staff member, who dramatically quit after accusing the bank of being dominated by members of China’s Communist Party.

    No other member nations expressed such concern, and Canada has not yet published any review. A group of AIIB executive directors oversaw an internal review that found no evidence to support the allegations.

    As the new U.S. administration formulates its policies toward China, it would do well to take into account the variation in China’s strategies in global economic governance, as a recognition of areas of cooperation, competition and conflict requires more nuanced responses. In many areas, the U.S. will both cooperate and compete with China.

    Paradoxically, any moves by the Trump administration to pull back from multilateral organizations may leave the AIIB, whether or not it is an anomaly, in a position to offer a better model of cooperation than leading multilateral development banks with a powerful U.S. role.

    Tamar Gutner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. If US attempts World Bank retreat, the China-led AIIB could be poised to step in – and provide a model of global cooperation – https://theconversation.com/if-us-attempts-world-bank-retreat-the-china-led-aiib-could-be-poised-to-step-in-and-provide-a-model-of-global-cooperation-244595

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A hazy legal landscape means people can get high on hemp products, even where pot is prohibited

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Katharine Neill Harris, Fellow in Drug Policy, Rice University

    Delta-8 supplements on a shelf at a Texas store. Sergio Flores/Washington Post via Getty Images

    In Texas, where I live, marijuana has long been illegal. Yet on a busy street in my Houston neighborhood, at least five stores within a half-mile of each other sell cannabis products that promise a strong high.

    Texas isn’t alone. Due to a mix of recent legal changes and an uncertain policy landscape, residents in roughly half of American states have easy access to impairing hemp products that bear a strong resemblance to marijuana and are far less regulated.

    As hemp sales soar – reaching nearly US$3 billion in 2023 – a number of states are tightening their restrictions, while experts are analyzing the public health implications. That’s why I analyzed hemp policies in all 50 states with some of my colleagues at Rice University’s Baker Institute, where I’m a drug policy fellow.

    Marijuana and hemp: Same plant, different policies

    Marijuana and hemp are both varieties of cannabis sativa, a plant with many uses that produces thousands of compounds. Among them is the popular intoxicant delta-9 tetrahydrocannabinol, or delta-9 THC.

    Hemp is widely valued as an industrial crop, and for most of American history, farmers freely cultivated it. But by the mid-20th century, lawmakers had grown increasingly opposed to marijuana and were concerned by hemp’s similarity to its impairment-causing cousin.

    In an effort to permit hemp cultivation while prohibiting production of a psychoactive plant, the Agricultural Marketing Act of 1946 defined hemp as all parts of the cannabis plant with less than 0.3 percent concentration of delta-9 THC by dry weight. Cannabis that exceeded this threshold was considered marijuana.

    The 1970 Controlled Substances Act ushered in the modern era of prohibition of marijuana and other drugs. Hemp remained technically legal, but because of its similarity to marijuana, it was listed as a Schedule I drug, alongside heroin and other substances deemed to have a high potential for abuse and no medical value.

    Because of hemp’s Schedule I status, the Drug Enforcement Administration tightly regulated its production. But hemp farmers have long argued that these regulations were excessive – and in 2018, Congress agreed. That year, lawmakers passed a farm bill that removed hemp from the Controlled Substances Act and legalized the manufacture and sale of hemp and its derivatives.

    The ABC News affiliate in San Diego reports on the 2018 farm bill from a local perspective.

    Crucially, the 2018 bill still defines hemp as all parts of the plant and its derivatives that have less than 0.3 percent delta-9 THC. But it left a loophole: While delta-9 is the most well-known form of THC, it’s not the only one. Other forms of THC, known as THC isomers, have similar effects. These isomers, like delta-8 and delta-10 THC, can be derived from the hemp plant, and like delta-9 THC, they can cause impairment. The 2018 Farm Bill legalized all of them.

    In 2023, sales of hemp-derived cannabinoids reached US$2.8 billion. Market growth has been accompanied by a rise in adverse health events. Chemists have expressed alarm at how some hemp products are made, and analyses of commercially available products have found them to contain heavy metals, residual solvents and pesticides.

    Given the lax regulatory environment, many public officials now question the lack of guardrails on this burgeoning hemp industry. As a result, officials and governments across the country are now enacting or considering policy changes.

    Some states are imposing age and advertising restrictions

    In 2023, 11.4% of 12th graders said they had used hemp-derived delta-8 THC in the past year. Easy access to any substance can encourage use, and THC can have negative impacts on the adolescent brain.

    While federal law prohibits the sale of tobacco and alcohol to individuals under 21, there is no similar national requirement for hemp. But at least 27 states that permit the sale of hemp-derived products now have minimum age requirements, and several others have pending legislation.

    Lessons from the tobacco market also demonstrate that advertising restrictions can reduce the use of legal but potentially harmful products. Most efforts to curtail hemp advertising focus on youth. Sixteen states restrict the use of packaging and marketing materials that may appeal to minors. Meanwhile, federal regulations also limit youth-targeted marketing.

    There are fewer restrictions on advertising to adults. The Food and Drug Administration does prohibit using unverified health claims to sell hemp products, but this standard gives the industry plenty of leeway. Hemp ads often tout their purported physical benefits, like reducing pain or improving sleep, or portray them as mood-boosters that can make one feel euphoric and aroused, with few downsides.

    Other states are establishing potency limits

    The use of products high in THC has been linked to greater risk of cannabis dependence and adverse mental health outcomes. Concerns about product potency have led all states with recreational marijuana markets to limit the amount of delta-9 THC in edible products. This threshold is typically around 10 milligrams, a dose that’s strong enough to affect most people.

    Hemp is a different story. To satisfy federal requirements, hemp just has to have less than 0.3% delta-9 THC by weight. This limit sounds low, but the weight-based metric does not account for heavier products, like food and drinks.

    For example, a 50-gram candy bar – roughly the size of a Snickers bar – with 150 milligrams of hemp-derived delta-9 THC is legal in the 34 states that don’t have milligram caps on hemp products. This is a dose 15 times higher than what any recreational marijuana market allows. Meanwhile, states that only restrict hemp’s delta-9 content also leave the door open to products with high amounts of other forms of THC.

    At least 13 states have responded to potency concerns by adding milligram caps on the total THC permitted in a single serving of a hemp product. Some of these limits are so low – 1 milligram or less in Connecticut, New York, Montana and Rhode Island – that one serving is unlikely to cause impairment.

    Enforcement is a wild card

    Only regulations that are enforced are effective, and states differ in the level of energy they devote to industry oversight.

    In Virginia, the Office of Hemp Enforcement has issued over $12 million in fines to noncompliant hemp retailers since its creation in 2023. On the other end of the spectrum, Massachusetts considers hemp-derived THC products illegal, but it has not provided local jurisdictions with funding for enforcement, resulting in continued availability of prohibited products.

    Some states with legal hemp markets have added additional sales taxes to help fund enforcement. In Nebraska, Missouri and Connecticut, attorneys general have sued hemp retailers for selling illegal items, marketing to minors and engaging in deceptive trade practices.

    As the hemp industry expands, so will concerns about how to protect public health. The demand for THC, and the market to supply it, continues to grow. If lawmakers want to develop industrywide safety standards or deal with the challenges of online marketplaces that sell hemp products to minors, it will take action from Washington. In the meantime, many states and policymakers are exploring an expansive middle ground between unfettered access and blanket bans.

    Katharine Neill Harris does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A hazy legal landscape means people can get high on hemp products, even where pot is prohibited – https://theconversation.com/a-hazy-legal-landscape-means-people-can-get-high-on-hemp-products-even-where-pot-is-prohibited-247168

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Barred European Union politician brands Israel as ‘a rogue state’

    Israel has now banned another European Union parliamentarian from entering the country, reports Al Jazeera.

    The government gave no reasons why Lynn Boylan, who chairs the European Parliament EU-Palestine delegation, was denied entry.

    “This utter contempt from Israel is the result of the international community failing to hold them to account,” Boylan, an Irish MP in Brussels, said in a statement.

    “Israel is a rogue state, and this disgraceful move shows the level of utter disregard that they have for international law.

    “Europe must now hold Israel to account.”

    Boylan said she had planned to meet with Palestinian Authority officials, representatives of civil society organisations, and people living under Israeli occupation.

    She is a member of the Sinn Fein party in Ireland, which has been among the most vocal countries in criticising the Israeli government over its treatment of Palestinians.

    France’s Hassan also refused
    Earlier, EU lawmaker Rima Hassan was also refused entry at Ben-Gurion airport and ordered to return to Europe.

    “Hassan, who is expected to land from Brussels in the coming hour, consistently works to promote boycotts against Israel in addition to numerous public statements both on social media and in media interviews,” said Israeli Interior Minister Moshe Arbel’s office.

    Hassan is a French national of Palestinian origin known for her support of the Palestinian cause and for speaking out against Israel’s war on Gaza.

    Kaja Kallas, the EU foreign policy chief, outlined a range of worries about the situation in war-battered Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

    “We have constantly called on all parties, including Israel, to respect international humanitarian law,” she said, adding that Europe “cannot hide our concern when it comes to the West Bank”.

    ICC raps Merz over warrants
    Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has declared that states cannot unilaterally “determine soundness” of its rulings

    Earlier, it was reported that Germany’s election winner Friedrich Merz was saying he planned to invite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to visit the country — despite an ICC war crimes warrant issued for his arrest, which Merz claimed did not apply.

    The ICC responded by saying states had a legal obligation to enforce its decisions, and any concerns they may have should be addressed with the court in a timely and efficient manner.

    “It is not for states to unilaterally determine the soundness of the court’s legal decisions,” said the ICC in a statement.

    Israel rejects the jurisdiction of the court and denies war crimes were committed during its devastating war on Gaza.

    Germans feel a special responsibility towards Israel because of the legacy of the Holocaust, and Merz has made clear he is a strong ally. But Germany also has a strong tradition of support for international justice for war crimes.

    Amnesty slams ‘shameful silence’
     Amnesty International and 162 other civil society organisations and trade unions have signed a joint letter calling on the EU to ban trade and business with Israel’s settlements in occupied Palestinian territory.

    “Despite EU consensus about the settlements’ illegality and their link to serious abuses, the EU continues to trade and allow business with them,” the letter said.

    This contributes to “the serious and systemic human rights and other international law abuses underpinning the settlement enterprise”, it added.

    The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in July issued a landmark advisory opinion affirming that states must not recognise, aid or assist the unlawful situation arising from Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory.

    Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The ‘lab-leak origin’ of Covid-19. Fact or fiction?

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Florence Débarre, Directrice de recherche CNRS, chercheuse en biologie évolutive, Sorbonne Université

    In a January 24 interview with the far-right-wing outlet Breitbart News, newly appointed CIA director John Ratcliffe stated that assessing intelligence on a potential Wuhan lab leak was a top priority. The following day, The New York Times reported that the agency had shifted from an undecided stance to favoring a possible Chinese lab leak, albeit with a “low confidence” rating–the lowest on a three-tier scale (low, medium, high)–indicating the evidence remains inconclusive.

    The CIA has thus joined the ranks of the FBI and the Department of Energy (DOE), which has scientific jurisdiction, in supporting the possibility of a laboratory-related incident.

    Findings from a 2023 reportshow that, among the U.S. agencies that have investigated the pandemic’s origins, one remains undecided, while four others, along with the National Intelligence Council, support the natural origin hypothesis.

    What does ‘laboratory origin’ really mean?

    According to The New York Times, the CIA’s revised assessment is based not on new evidence, but on a reinterpretation of existing data. However, the reasoning behind its reassessment, along with the supporting data, has not been made public, making it impossible to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of the agency’s conclusions.

    Adding to the complexity, “laboratory origin” is an umbrella term encompassing multiple, sometimes contradictory, scenarios. Confirming CNN’s 2023 report on the Department of Energy’s revised stance, The New York Times notes that while the DOE identifies the Wuhan Center for Disease Control (WCDC) as the outbreak’s likely source, the FBI attributes it to a lab leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). As of now, the CIA has not disclosed which scenario it deems most plausible.

    Though WCDC is not an actual research laboratory, some of its employees were participating in wildlife sampling campaigns at the time of the outbreak. In late 2019, WCDC moved to a location close to the Huanan Market. A theory implicating the WCDC confirms evidence that the earliest detected cases are epidemiologically and geographically linked to the market, suggesting the virus emerged naturally.

    In contrast, the WIV is a research institute operating across two campuses–one located 12 kilometers from the market and the other, which houses the P4 laboratory, 27 kilometers away. Scenarios implicating the WIV generally posit that “gain-of-function” coronavirus experiments–intended to enhance a virus’s transmissibility or virulence–were conducted under unsafe biosecurity conditions. The WIV is a biosafety level 2 facility, two levels below the high-security P4 standard.

    The interactive map above highlights Wuhan laboratories–the two WIV campuses in purple and the WCDC in yellow–and the Wuhan Huanan market in red. Click the symbol in the top left corner to view the legend. Since the WCDC is located near the market, please zoom in to see it.

    The Covid-19 virus originated from a single source. If it did escape from a Chinese laboratory, it could not have simultaneously leaked from two separate labs conducting different types of research.

    The lab leak scenario, supported by mutually incompatible hypotheses, doesn’t hold up–even before considering theories that the virus was engineered in a U.S. lab and then sent to Wuhan.

    Beyond determining the virus’s origin, it is equally important to identify the exact nature of the virus–further complicating the lab-accident hypothesis. Was it a natural occurring virus contracted during a sampling campaign? A laboratory-cultivated virus transferred to cells or animals? Or even a directly genetically modified virus?

    Again, SARS-CoV-2 cannot be both a natural virus and the result of lab experiments. Arguments built on conflicting premises do little to strengthen the case for a research-related incident.

    No evidence of a laboratory-related incident

    The lab-incident hypothesis would carry much more weight if definitive proof emerged that, by late December 2019, a Wuhan laboratory possessed a progenitor of SARS-CoV-2–meaning a virus identical or nearly identical to SARS-CoV-2.

    In the case of the 2007 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in southern England, for example, virus sequencing quickly led investigators to nearby high-security laboratories conducting research on a similar virus. The inquiry ultimately traced the outbreak to faulty effluent pipes at the facilities.

    To date, no virus has been identified that could be used in a laboratory as a direct progenitor of SARS-CoV-2. If the virus did emerge from a research-related incident, two possibilities remain: it was either an uncharacterized natural virus, unknown even to researchers, or it was a previously characterized virus that had not been disclosed–either because it was recently identified or part of a classified program–and is still being kept under wraps by scientists in Wuhan.

    Especially if SARS-CoV-2 were the result of genetic engineering. A lab-modified virus would mean its genetic sequence was known before the pandemic and accessible to researchers. However, by 2021, the U.S. intelligence community had determined that researchers at the WIV had no prior knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 before the outbreak. While absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, concrete data has yet to emerge supporting the hypothesis of laboratory modification.

    Theories about a potential lab outbreak have also fueled speculation about external involvement, both within China and abroad. A U.S. Senate committee report put forward an all-Chinese scenario, citing the suspicious 2020 death of a Beijing-based researcher working on a new vaccine.

    Other theories center on the NGO EcoHealth Alliance, which collaborated with WIV to collect and study natural coronavirus strains before its funding was abruptly cut off at Donald Trump’s request in Spring 2020. The organization’s president has since been banned from federal funding for five years, facing criticism over oversight issues, including delayed reporting of an experiment on a chimeric coronavirus and failure to provide WIV’s laboratory notebooks.

    Among the most high-profile figures implicated in U.S.-based complicity theories is Anthony Fauci, the former White House Covid advisor and head of the agency that funded the EcoHealth Alliance/WIV collaboration. But allegations against Fauci go far beyond simply approving research grants. One narrative claims he deliberately suppressed discussions about the pandemic’s point of origin, pressuring researchers to alter their conclusions in exchange for funding. No evidence has surfaced to support this claim.

    Anticipating potential retribution from his successor and the Republican Party, Former President Joe Biden preemptively granted Fauci a presidential pardon. However, newly elected President Donald Trump has since revoked Fauci’s personal security detail, and Republican Senator Rand Paul has vowed to continue efforts to prosecute him.

    The natural-origin theory faces hurdles as well

    Since these competing lab leak theories have emerged from a lack of conclusive evidence anything is possible. However, available data suggest the virus may have originated naturally from animals sold at the Huanan Market.

    Multiple sources, including research from Chinese institutions, support this hypothesis: two early SARS-CoV-2 strains were detected at the market, with the earliest cases reported in homes within the vicinity, even for patients without direct epidemiological links to it, and findings from the Chinese Center for Disease Control (CCDC) indicate that raccoon dogs and masked palm civets–species implicated in earlier SARS outbreaks–were present in the market’s southwest corner, where traces of SARS-CoV-2 were frequently detected.

    However, by the time the China CDC team arrived at the Huanan Market–just hours after its closure for sample collection–raccoon dogs and civets were no longer present. As a result, no direct traces of infection were detected, and the definitive evidence some are hoping for may never be uncovered.

    But even if such proof were to emerge, it’s unlikely to settle the debate. Additional confirmation would be needed to show that the contamination originated in the animals rather than being a secondary infection transmitted by humans. Moreover, skeptics could argue that the animals themselves came from a laboratory. In other words, the controversy is far from over.

    For now, with the new Trump administration focused on finding a culprit, the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic will remain in the spotlight. Senator Rand Paul, now chair of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC), has made the issue his favorite hobbyhorse.

    While declassifying additional information from the U.S. intelligence community could help clarify competing conclusions, there are concerns that the administration’s efforts may unfairly target researchers, potentially resulting in more innocent victims.

    Florence Débarre received funding in 2022 from the MODCOV19 platform of the National Institute for Mathematical Sciences and their Interactions (Insmi, CNRS) to model the initial dynamics of an epidemic.

    – ref. The ‘lab-leak origin’ of Covid-19. Fact or fiction? – https://theconversation.com/the-lab-leak-origin-of-covid-19-fact-or-fiction-250462

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Remembering Roberta Flack, a spellbinding virtuoso of musical interpretation

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Leigh Carriage, Senior Lecturer in Music, Southern Cross University

    The multi-Grammy award winner Roberta Flack has passed away at 88.

    Her approach and sound were a unique combination of soul, folk, rhythm and blues, jazz, pop and musicianship, and arranging skills so broad she had had a lasting impact on future artists.

    Her sustained career laid a foundation for pop and neo-soul artists Alicia Keys, Erykah Badu, Solange, J Dilla, Flying Lotus, and D’Angelo.

    Over her career, Flack performed some original songs, but she is better known for her myriad of covers and performances of songs written for her. No matter who wrote the songs, she made all of them her own. She was a master of musical interpretation.

    An early life of music

    Flack was born in North Carolina in 1937. Both of her parents played piano; her mother was the church organist.

    Her early interest in gospel tunes was encouraged and supported with her participation in a local Baptist church in Arlington, Virginia, and many relatives who sang.

    Her formal classical musical training continued at Howard University. After a brief period teaching at a junior high school, Flack started landing regular bookings at Mr. Henry’s, a Washington DC bar where Flack performed a range of traditional spirituals, jazz, blues and folk repertoire.

    In 1968, she signed with Atlantic Records.

    Her brilliant debut

    Her debut album, First Take, was recorded over just ten hours in 1969 at Atlantic Recording Studios, New York. First take indeed! Genius!

    Considering Flack’s background, religious inspiration and being surrounded by the social movements of the 1960s, it is not surprising that her first album features songs that address race and religion. The album creates a fusion of music with themes of spiritually and compelling political issues.

    Flack blended genres effortlessly. One of the highlights of the album is Flack’s interpretation of the folk song The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face. Written in 1957 by British political singer-songwriter Ewan MacColl for the vocalist Peggy Seeger, Flack’s interpretation is notably delivered with a deliberately slower tempo, and with legato phrasing – smooth, and connected.

    The lesser-known second track, the Venezuelan/Mexican song Angelitos Negros, offers a soulful statement of black rights.

    Flack’s powerful vocal delivery evokes a haunting sense of loss and refined passion. This, combined with her choice of musical arrangement with repeating lyrics, forms a commanding protest song.

    Always forging her own path

    Labels often described her work as “adult contemporary” or “easy-listening”.

    This barely addresses the diversity within her catalogue, which features Broadway ballads like The Impossible Dream, her definitive interpretation of Leonard Cohen’s Hey, That’s No Way To Say Goodbye, Bee Gees and Beatles songs, and folk classics.

    Blending genres like jazz, latin, rock and folk with nuanced elements of classical into her own arrangements and song interpretations, to the listener Flack’s interpretation becomes authorship.

    In this way, Flack played a role in defining pop music’s processes.

    Flack is best known for her majestic indelible early hits songs like Killing Me Softly with His Song, Where Is the Love and The Closer I Get to You.

    The 1973 live recording of Killing Me Softly With His Song, written by Charles Fox and Norman Gimbel, is breathtaking.

    Flack opens without an introduction: straight in, delicately infusing the lyrics with a vast array of tonal shades. The smooth phrases are delivered with a beautifully aligned dynamic, like the most carefully crafted expression.

    In 1996 Killing Me Softly with His Song, was reinvented by the Fugees with lead vocalist Lauryn Hill.

    Where Is the Love, a duet with Donny Hathaway, brings together their two legendary voices perfectly. Here were two highly skilled pianists with incredible musicality with voices that blended perfectly together.

    I have always enjoyed Flack’s version of Compared to What. Flack’s emotive delivery; the warmth of her tone; the panache; the edgeless smooth phrasing pulls you near in complete comfort.

    For Flack the lyric meaning – telling the story with clarity and honesty – was paramount. Her expression is refined with understated inventiveness. There is such power in her performances. She is spellbinding, reaching a deep soulful place that is both classically and contemporarily informed.

    While Flack wrote some songs, such as You Know What It’s Like, she was not predominantly a songwriter. Instead, she was a virtuosic interpreter of music. Whether penned by Flack or not, each song’s interpretation sounds authored by her. That is the sense you are getting when you listen to her music: it doesn’t matter who it’s written by, her interpretation makes you believe it is by her.

    Leigh Carriage does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Remembering Roberta Flack, a spellbinding virtuoso of musical interpretation – https://theconversation.com/remembering-roberta-flack-a-spellbinding-virtuoso-of-musical-interpretation-250763

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The gold price has surged to record highs. What’s behind the move?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Dirk Baur, Professor of Finance, The University of Western Australia

    The gold price has surged to a new all-time high above US$2,900 (A$4,544) an ounce this month.

    It has risen by 12% since the start of the year and clearly outperformed US and Australian stock markets. The US stock index S&P500 is up 4% and the ASX 200 has gained just 2% in that time.

    That follows an extraordinary run in 2024, when the precious metal surged 27%, the biggest rise in 14 years.

    The drivers behind this surge include heightened uncertainty and fear of inflation that has been stoked by US President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs, together with increased demand from central banks.

    What explains gold’s recent rally?

    There are many factors at play.

    The supply of gold through gold mine production and recycling is relatively constant over time. But the demand is more variable, and consists of four major components: jewellery, technology, investment and central banks.

    In 2024, jewellery accounted for about 50% of total demand, technology or industrial demand was 5%, investment demand was 25% and central bank demand was 20%.

    Investment demand refers to investors who buy gold as an asset. Central banks generally buy gold to diversify their reserve holdings.

    As all four demand components vary over time (some more than others), gold price movements are sometimes driven by jewellery demand, sometimes by investor demand, and sometimes – as has happened recently – by central bank demand.

    What adds to the difficulty is that both the gold supply and gold demand are global. The supply comes from gold mines across the globe, from emerging countries in Africa and industrial countries such as Australia and Canada.

    The same is true for demand. While China and India dominate jewellery demand, the demand comes from many countries, as does investment demand. Central bank demand stems from large and small central banks around the world.

    Why is there demand for gold?

    One key reason for the popularity of gold is that it is considered to be a store of value. This means gold rises with inflation and maintains its value in the long run.

    In other words, an ounce of gold buys the same basket of goods (or more) today than 20 years ago. This is not the case for money (or fiat currency) such as the US or Australian dollars.

    Due to inflation, the value of money is not constant but depreciates over time. Because gold holds its value, it is also called an inflation hedge.

    While the store of value property holds in the long run, there is another important property that is more short-lived and particularly relevant during crisis periods.

    Gold is seen as a safe haven in troubled times

    The safe haven property of gold means gold prices increase when investors seek shelter in response to a shock or crisis. For example, investors bought gold in reaction to the September 11 2001 terrorist attacks, the start of the global financial crisis in 2008, and the outbreak of COVID in 2020.

    The safe haven effect of gold is generally short-lived, often resulting in falling gold prices after about 15 days.

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the subsequent sanctions on Russia – especially the freeze of Russia’s foreign government bond holdings abroad – has highlighted the risk to governments of losing access to foreign currency holdings.

    It appears some governments or central banks reacted to this with increased gold purchases. This led to a record high of 1,082 tonnes of central bank gold purchases in 2022.

    2023 saw the second-highest annual purchase in history at 1,051 tonnes, followed by 1,041 tonnes in 2024.

    The potential reaction of central banks to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is akin to investors seeking a safe haven, but is a rather new phenomenon for central banks.

    There is an additional, secondary, effect of such central bank purchases and rebalancing from US dollars to gold.

    Selling US dollars for gold implies a weakening US dollar, which increases the price of gold. (If the US dollar weakens, you need more US dollars to buy gold.) The inverse relationship between gold prices and currencies also makes gold a currency hedge. That means gold can protect investors from potential losses due to fluctuating exchange rates. This effect is particularly strong for rather volatile currencies such as the Australian dollar.

    In contrast to the shock caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the more recent increase in gold prices is harder to associate with a single shock.

    Broader economic worries

    The election of Trump has not only increased the risk of higher inflation due to tariffs and a trade war, it has also increased geopolitical risk as the US government reassesses its alliances with other countries.

    The relative unpredictability of Trump compared with his predecessors and with politicians more generally may have increased uncertainty and gold prices.
    The recent gold price trend highlights that “gold loves bad news”.

    Gold prices may anticipate geopolitical shocks or higher inflation. Gold prices rose well before inflation increased after the pandemic and started to fall when inflation had peaked in 2022.

    It is not clear exactly why gold has risen to all-time highs in 2025, but it’s possibly not good news for the world economy.

    Dirk Baur does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The gold price has surged to record highs. What’s behind the move? – https://theconversation.com/the-gold-price-has-surged-to-record-highs-whats-behind-the-move-250391

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Samoan Prime Minister Fiame survives in resounding no-confidence vote

    By Christina Persico, RNZ Pacific bulletin editor

    Samoan Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata’afa has survived a vote of no confidence after weeks of political turmoil.

    In a vote today, she defeated the motion by 34 votes in favour and 15 against.

    The motion was prompted by a split in the ruling FAST Party, which saw Fiame leading a minority government.

    But in a shock move today, FAST members voted alongside Fiame’s faction to register a resounding defeat against Opposition Leader Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi’s motion.

    The Speaker of the Legislative Assembly, Papalii Lio Masipua, had granted the opposition’s formal request for a vote of no confidence against Fiame on Friday.

    Tuilaepa, who is also the head of the Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP), confirmed that the Speaker approved the motion in writing and allowed five members from the opposition bench to speak on it.

    According to Samoa’s constitutional requirements, the MP who commands the majority of MPs should be elected as Prime Minister or continue as Prime Minister.

    ‘Another desperate attempt’
    However, the Samoan government stated Tuilaepa’s move was “another desperate attempt to stir political drama” ahead of the no-confidence vote.

    Political upheaval hit Samoa just three days into 2025 when the chair of the ruling FAST party and Samoa’s Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries La’auli Leuatea Schmidt confirmed he was facing criminal charges.

    FAST Party chair Laauli Leuatea Schmidt (left to right), Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata’afa, and Opposition Leader Tuilaepa Sa’ilele Malielegaoi. Image: RNZ Pacific/123RF/Samoa Government/FAST Party

    On January 10, Mata’afa removed La’auli’s ministerial portfolio and subsequently removed three of her Cabinet ministers.

    But La’auli remained chair of the FAST Party, and went on to announce the removal of the prime minister and five Cabinet ministers from the ruling party.

    This decision was reportedly challenged by the removed members.

    Fiame then removed 13 of her associate ministers.

    Laauli acknowledged the challenge of holding a vote of no confidence, but refrained from disclosing the party’s position, stating they would wait until Tuesday.

    First female prime minister
    Fiame is Samoa’s first female prime minister. She had heritage — her father, Fiame Mata’afa Faumuina Mulinu’u, was the country’s first prime minister.

    She took office following the April 2021 election, but that devolved into political crisis.

    The caretaker HRPP government locked the doors to Parliament in an attempt to stop the then prime minister-elect from being sworn into office following her FAST Party’s one-seat election win.

    Two governments claimed a mandate to rule, and the United Nations urged the party leaders to find a solution through discussion.

    The Court of Appeal ruled that the country had a new government after it judged the impromptu swearing-in by the newcomer FAST party on May 24 was legitimate under the doctrine of necessity.

    It took until July for the incumbent, Tuilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi, to concede.

    Fiame went to school and university in Wellington, New Zealand, but her studies were interrupted in 1977 when she returned to Samoa to help with court cases around the succession of her father’s titles following his death in 1975.

    In 1985, she was elected as MP for Lotofaga, the same seat held by her father and then her mother after his death.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Moving beyond Black history month towards inclusive histories in Québec secondary schools

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By R. Nanre Nafziger, Assistant Professor, African/Black Studies in Education, McGill University

    As Montréal celebrates its 34th Black History Month, it is time to fully integrate Black history into Québec education.

    As an all-out war on diversity and inclusion rages below Canada’s southern border, an opportunity is opened for Québec to live up to its vision of a truly inclusive and multicultural society.

    Integral to this is mainstreaming the histories of Black, Indigenous and other racialized and equity-deserving communities. This can be done through history studies and also through citizenship and cultural education.

    It is important to go beyond Black History Month in order to embrace the importance of Black history for Black students and all students — ignored for too long in history textbooks and teaching.

    To this urgent issue we bring our combined research and educational expertise. Nanre Nafziger, the first author of this story, has researched how Black/African peoples can reclaim their histories and cultures, and Sabrina Jafralie, who has a PhD in teacher education, has researched Québec curricula and also brings experience as a Québec-born-and-raised teacher at a Montréal high school.

    Essential to combat anti-Black racism

    Teaching Black history is essential to fighting against anti-Black racism reinforced through negative depictions of African and Black histories.

    History education is important for raising critical and actively involved citizens and increasing acceptance and understanding. Educators speak of developing a “historical consciousness” — which includes learning to examine causes and consequences, and to revisit and interpret sources. This is a critical building block for fighting racism and negative depictions of racialized groups.

    History education is important for raising actively involved citizens and increasing understanding. Students at Dawson College in Montréal in 2021.
    THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes

    Québec curriculum development, like most North American curricula, has historically leaned towards a Eurocentric narrative.

    Black/African history education is largely absent in Québec’s history curricula, reinforcing the erasure of the contributions of Black people to the development of Québec but also to world history. For example, history and citizenship secondary education (Cycle 1) refers to Black/Afro-Canadian history only in naming enslavement and oppression.

    This creates a narrow and damaging history that fails to recognize the diverse range of achievements by Black people. It neglects the rich cultural heritage of Afro-Canadians and reinforces systemic inequities in how knowledge is produced and disseminated.

    Sabrina writes: I was fortunate that my Afro Nova Scotian mother taught me our history across Canada. However, it was not present in my education until I created it in high school.

    Historical fight for Black history

    Researchers have raised concerns that Québec’s “interculturalism” — a longstanding province-specific take on how to address and integrate cultural differences — fails to take into account the complexities of identities and omits important histories.

    Such an approach further compounds anti-Black racism in schools.

    Black students, parents and educators have called for Black history to be taught in Québec schools year-round and activists have called for the creation of a more inclusive curriculum.

    Despite systemic omissions, Black and African communities in Québec have a rich tradition of upholding and preserving their histories through the meticulous work of community archivists and memory keepers.

    This includes the creation of Black libraries, books, articles and curriculum materials, oral storytelling and walking tours. Black community organizations offer cultural and community programming that focuses on diverse cultures and histories of Black people. Renowned historian, educator and long-time advocate for Black history Dorothy Williams, created a curriculum toolkit called the ABCs of Black History in French and English for teachers and educators to use in schools.

    Recommended revisions

    In its brief to the education minister, the Advisory Board on English Education recommended rewrites to “the K-11 history curriculum to broaden its perspective beyond Québec based content and Eurocentricity,” and allowing latitude for schools to incorporate history curriculum relevant to students’ backgrounds.

    While it is helpful when school boards mark Black History Month and share resources for teachers, the integration of Black history requires a holistic and comprehensive curricular focus.

    Québec may learn from other provinces. Nova Scotia has a curriculum on African Canadian history and Ontario plans to roll out a Black history curriculum in schools in September 2025. Educators in British Columbia created a Black Studies 12 course which helps promote racial equity in education.

    Culture and citizenship curriculum

    The new Culture and Civics Curriculum (CCQ), a mandatory subject in primary and secondary schools, offers opportunities to address systemic racism with a focus on citizenship, culture and identity. Yet, there is no assurance students will gain competencies to address racism, or teachers will be well-equipped to lead such learning, given the curricular approach. For example:

    • The elementary program of the CCQ prepares students to understand “cultural realities” and contains a module on Indigenous perspectives. However, the approach is rooted in Euro-centered sociology.

    • Secondary 5 (students aged 16-17) names the compulsory concept of social inequalities (along with sexism and other inequalities related to gender and sexuality; racism and colonialism; socio-economic inequalities; environmental inequalities). However, the teacher decides how to teach these grouped concepts and what emphasis to give these areas.

    This means there is a possibility that the CCQ curriculum could address anti-Black racism, but there are too many variables to guarantee it. By contrast, sexuality education and civic education are deemed mandatory and special topics.

    Black history now

    Including Black history in the curriculum will have a profound, direct impact on students by strengthening their identity, citizenship, and “sense of pride and belonging to Québec society.”

    Healthy learning can take place when students and people see their place in history and curriculum, as this creates a sense of belonging. The current curriculum creates exclusion and allows educators to hide in their bias if they desire.

    Diverse curricula create space and acknowledge hidden histories and foster a shared humanity and a vision for a shared, socially just, future.

    Québec’s complicated history of colonialism, systemic racism and ongoing repression associated with secularism is not one to be shied away from.

    Rather, integrating Black history can serve as a portal for inspiring and encouraging critical discourses on histories of communities that are under-represented in dominant stories of Québec.

    At a moment when exclusion, vitriol against difference and increasing intolerance dominates social discourse and interactions, Québec can choose another path. Only through critically assessing our past can we look forward to any form of a unified future: nous nous souvenons, we must all remember and be remembered.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Moving beyond Black history month towards inclusive histories in Québec secondary schools – https://theconversation.com/moving-beyond-black-history-month-towards-inclusive-histories-in-quebec-secondary-schools-248832

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: U.S. cuts to HIV/AIDS funding will be detrimental for vulnerable groups in Kenya

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Toby Le, PhD Candidate in Medical Microbiology, University of Manitoba

    On his first day in office, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to freeze foreign aid funding. This was followed by a stop-work order for dozens of life-saving humanitarian programs.

    One of the programs affected by this announcement is the U.S. President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). This program has invested more than US$100 billion in the global HIV/AIDS response since it was founded in 2003. This makes the U.S. the largest funder of HIV/AIDS programs worldwide.

    Although a 90-day waiver has since been issued which temporarily allows life-saving HIV drugs to continue being delivered, the impact of this executive order is already being felt across the globe — including in Africa, where PEPFAR funding has been integral in controlling the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

    If PEPFAR funding ends when the waiver expires — or resumes but doesn’t allow funding for services to all key populations — this will have severe impacts on those in the continent living with HIV or at high-risk of infection.

    HIV/ AIDS research

    For 45 years, the University of Manitoba has been part of an important initiative in Nairobi, Kenya — partnering with the Sex Worker Outreach Program (SWOP and local agency Partners for Health and Development in Africa (PHDA) to develop effective strategies against HIV that can be employed in the region and communities worldwide. The approach, developed in 1985 by Elizabeth Ngugi, a public health nurse, and Francis Plummer, a University of Manitoba researcher, has empowered the community to share knowledge and to advocate for their rights. It has been vital in reducing HIV prevalence.

    This partnership between the University of Manitoba and SWOP has been funded by PEPFAR since 2003. It receives an average of US$1.5 million annually to deliver reproductive health, tuberculosis, sexually transmitted infection and HIV services to key populations. Currently, this funding allows the program to operate nine clinics in Kenya, which annually provide services to over 40,000 female sex workers, 12,000 men who have sex with men and 1,400 transgender people.

    The program offers safe spaces and tailors services to address the specific needs of each group and reduces health-care barriers. Our research team assessed gaps and refined approaches so that this partnership could serve the most vulnerable — transforming engagement with key groups.

    Groundbreaking research findings have also emerged because of this partnership. University of Manitoba research conducted with the SWOP community was among the first to show that STIs increase the risk of HIV infection, that breastfeeding heightens the risk of transmitting HIV to babies, that male circumcision helps prevent HIV and that some people exposed to HIV have a natural immunity to the virus.

    These findings have informed global prevention strategies and highlight the partnership’s significant impact.

    Critical funding

    If PEPFAR funding does indeed end in April once the temporary waiver expires, it would have a serious impact on the HIV/AIDS programs being delivered not only in Kenya but around the globe.

    SWOP clinics have been instrumental in curbing HIV infections among sex workers. HIV prevalence among female sex workers accessing SWOP clinics declined from 44 per cent in 2008 to 12 per cent in 2017. This 67 per cent reduction can be attributed to an increase in HIV testing, community education and STI treatment. The program also highlighted the prevalence of HPV anal lesions in men who have sex with men and the importance of early detection. The cessation of PEPFAR funding will jeopardize STI and HIV services.

    After much advocating, the SWOP clinics servicing female sex workers were able to resume some of their activities last week (Feb. 12, 2025). However, the waiver specified that PEPFAR-funded HIV care and treatment services could only be offered to certain groups. This meant we were unable to resume HIV prevention services for all key groups.

    Without a strong contingency plan, the abrupt end to PEPFAR funding will have devastating consequences. It would mean an immediate end to SWOP activities. This would mean no more HIV testing, preventive treatment and anti-retroviral therapy — which would increase the risk of transmission, leading to an increase in cases and even a greater number of deaths in people living with HIV.

    Key groups accessing SWOP are among the most marginalized in Kenya. Without access to dedicated clinics, the majority will avoid seeking care due to fear of stigma, discrimination and harassment in clinics designed for the general public.

    SWOP partners with local agencies to provide empowerment, legal support and counselling. Closing these clinics could leave the communities they serve more vulnerable to violence, exploitation and human rights abuse.

    On the research front, funding cuts would mean ongoing projects would be halted and new ones couldn’t be started. Three already-funded University of Manitoba studies are planned to start this year. These aim to further investigate the impact of HIV on women living in the region and understand how women’s health can be improved not only in Kenya but worldwide.

    But without SWOP’s infrastructure (such as their clinics and outreach team) we won’t be able to start these new studies. Furthermore, the implementation of research-based programs that aim to prevent HPV-related cancers would be stopped.

    Cuts to HIV/AIDS funding could threaten the 40 years of work that has gone into ending the AIDS epidemic — potentially putting the lives of millions of people at risk.

    The PEPFAR program has saved over 25 million lives since its beginning in 2003. Ending the PEPFAR program would have serious impacts on services for key populations and the LGBTQ+ communities. If the funding does end after the waiver expires in April, it will be necessary for Canada’s provincial and federal governments to step in and become leaders in global health and the fight against HIV.

    Toby Le receives funding from CIHR and Research Manitoba.

    Julie Lajoie receives funding from Grand Challenge Canada, Canadian Institute of Health Research, CANFAR and MMSF (Manitoba Medical Service Fundation).

    Keith Fowke receives funding from CIHR and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

    – ref. U.S. cuts to HIV/AIDS funding will be detrimental for vulnerable groups in Kenya – https://theconversation.com/u-s-cuts-to-hiv-aids-funding-will-be-detrimental-for-vulnerable-groups-in-kenya-250001

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Francis − a pope who has cared deeply for the poor and opened up the Catholic Church

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Mathew Schmalz, Professor of Religious Studies, College of the Holy Cross

    Pope Francis during the Palm Sunday Mass at St. Peter’s Square on April 2, 2023, in Vatican City. Antonio Masiello/Getty Images

    Pope Francis, who remains in critical condition and hospitalized as he battles pneumonia in both lungs, was elected pope on March 13, 2013, after the surprise resignation of Benedict XVI.

    Prior to becoming pope, he was Jorge Mario Bergoglio, archbishop of Buenos Aires, and was the first person from the Americas to be elected to the papacy. He was also the first pope to choose Francis as his name, thus honoring St. Francis of Assisi, a 13th-century mystic whose love for nature and the poor have inspired Catholics and non-Catholics alike.

    Pope Francis chose not to wear the elaborate clothing, like red shoes or silk vestments, associated with other popes. As a scholar of global Catholicism, however, I would argue that the changes Francis brought to the papacy were more than skin deep. He opened the church to the outside world in ways none of his predecessors had done before.

    Care for the marginalized

    Pope Francis reached out personally to the poor. For example, he turned a Vatican plaza into a refuge for the homeless, whom he called “nobles of the street.”

    The Argentinian Jorge Mario Bergoglio, ordained for the Jesuits in 1969 at the Theological Faculty of San Miguel.
    Jesuit General Curia via Getty Images

    He washed the feet of migrants and prisoners during the traditional foot-washing ceremony on the Thursday before Easter. In an unprecedented act for a pope, he also washed the feet of non-Christians.

    He encouraged a more welcoming attitude toward gay and lesbian Catholics and invited transgender people to meet with him at the Vatican.

    On other contentious issues, Francis reaffirmed official Catholic positions. He labeled homosexual behavior a “sin,” although he also stated that it should not be considered a crime. Francis criticized gender theory for “blurring” differences between men and women.

    While he maintained the church’s position that all priests should be male, he made far-reaching changes that opened various leadership roles to women. Francis was the first pope to appoint a woman to head an administrative office at the Vatican. Also for the first time, women were included in the 70-member body that selects bishops and the 15-member council that oversees Vatican finances. Shortly before his death, he appointed an Italian nun, Sister Raffaella Petrini, as President of the Vatican City.

    Pope Francis in St. Peter’s Square on April 18, 2022.
    Stefano Spaziani/Mondadori Portfolio via Getty Images

    Not shy of controversy

    Some of Francis’ positions led to opposition in some Catholic circles.

    One such issue was related to Francis’ embrace of religious diversity. Delivering an address at the Seventh Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions in Kazakhstan in 2022, he said that members of the world’s different religions were “children of the same heaven.”

    While in Morocco, he spoke out against conversion as a mission, saying to the Catholic community that they should live “in brotherhood with other faiths.” To some of his critics, however, such statements undermined the unique truth of Christianity.

    During his tenure, the pope called for “synodality,” a more democratic approach to decision making. For example, synod meetings in November 2023 included laypeople and women as voting members. But the synod was resisted by some bishops who feared it would lessen the importance of priests as teachers and leaders.

    In a significant move that will influence the choosing of his successor, Pope Francis appointed more cardinals from the Global South. But not all Catholic leaders in the Global South followed his lead on doctrine. For example, African bishops publicly criticized Pope Francis’ December 2023 ruling that allowed blessings of individuals in same sex couples.

    His most controversial move was limiting the celebration of the Mass in the older form that uses Latin. This reversed a decision made by Benedict XVI that allowed the Latin Mass to be more widely practiced.

    Traditionalists argued that the Latin Mass was an important – and beautiful – part of the Catholic tradition. But Francis believed that it had divided Catholics into separate groups who worshiped differently.

    This concern for Catholic unity also led him to discipline two American critics of his reforms, Bishop Joseph Strickland of Tyler, Texas, and Cardinal Raymond Burke. Most significantly, Carlo Maria Viganò, the former Vatican ambassador, or nuncio, to the United States was excommunicated during Francis’ tenure for promoting “schism.”

    In the last days of his pontificate, Pope Francis also criticized the Trump administration’s efforts to deport migrants. In a letter to US Bishops, he recalled that Jesus, Mary and Joseph had been emigrants and refugees in Egypt. Pope Francis also argued that migrants who enter a country illegally should not be treated as criminals because they are in need and have dignity as human beings.

    Writings on ‘the common good’

    In his official papal letters, called encyclicals, Francis echoed his public actions by emphasizing the “common good,” or the rights and responsibilities necessary for human flourishing.

    Pope Francis washes the foot of a man during the foot-washing ritual at a refugee center outside of Rome on March 24, 2016.
    L’Osservatore Romano/Pool Photo via AP

    His first encyclical in 2013, Lumen Fidei, or “The Light of Faith,” sets out to show how faith can unite people everywhere.

    In his next encyclical, Laudato Si’, or “Praise Be to You,” Francis addressed the environmental crisis, including pollution and climate change. He also called attention to unequal distribution of wealth and called for an “integral ecology” that respects both human beings and the environment.

    His third encyclical in 2020, Fratelli Tutti, or “Brothers All,” criticized a “throwaway culture” that discards human beings, especially the poor, the unborn and the elderly. In a significant act for the head of the Catholic Church, Francis concluded by speaking of non-Catholics who have inspired him: Martin Luther King Jr., Desmond Tutu and Mahatma Gandhi.

    In his last encyclical, Dilexit Nos, or “He Loved Us,” he reflected on God’s Love through meditating on the symbol of the Sacred Heart that depicts flames of love coming from Jesus’ wounded heart that was pierced during the crucifixion.

    Francis also proclaimed a special “year of mercy” in 2015-16. The pope consistently argued for a culture of mercy that reflects the love of Jesus Christ, calling him “the face of God’s mercy.”

    A historic papacy

    Francis’ papacy has been historic. He embraced the marginalized in ways that no pope had done before. He not only deepened the Catholic Church’s commitment to the poor in its religious life but also expanded who is included in its decision making.

    The pope did have his critics who thought he went too far, too fast. And whether his reforms take root depends on his successor. Among many things, Francis will be remembered for how his pontificate represented a shift in power in the Catholic Church away from Western Europe to the Global South, where the majority of Catholics now live.

    Mathew Schmalz is Roman Catholic and a political independent.

    – ref. Francis − a pope who has cared deeply for the poor and opened up the Catholic Church – https://theconversation.com/francis-a-pope-who-has-cared-deeply-for-the-poor-and-opened-up-the-catholic-church-164362

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canada’s productivity strategy needs to centre workers

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ako Ufodike, Associate Professor, Administrative Studies, York University, Canada

    As Canada moves into 2025, its productivity still lags, despite efforts by the federal government to address the issue in the 2024 federal budget.

    Canada’s productivity has declined in nine of the last 10 quarters. Between 2015 and 2023, Canadian productivity fell by an average of 0.8 per cent per year. This means that, for every hour worked by Canadian employees, their output decreased by about eight per cent over that entire period.

    Labour productivity measures how much an economy produces per hour of work. Increasing productivity means finding ways to help people create more value in the time they spend working. However, how productivity is measured — and who benefits from productivity stimulation initiatives — varies.



    Read more:
    Canada’s lagging productivity affects us all — and will take years to remedy

    From an employer’s perspective, the main factor influencing productivity is the number of hours worked. For employees, the best proxy is wages received per hour worked — two related variables with differing implications.

    To date, Canada’s strategy to improve productivity has been very traditional, in that its primary aim has been to provide incentives for improved business performance.

    Global productivity issues

    Canada’s productivity stagnation struggles are not unique. A December 2024 OECD working paper highlighted a widespread slowdown across the OECD nations.

    From 1995 to 2023, ouputs from labour and capital inputs — know as multifactor productivity — declined sharply in both small and large advanced OECD countries.

    In Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Spain and the United Kingdom, productivity has nearly stalled. Greece, Italy, Luxembourg and Mexico experienced prolonged periods of negative growth.

    The OECD paper also found a link between productivity decline and stagnating human capital development. Since 2003, young citizens of OECD countries have underperformed on standardized tests in science, math and reading.

    At the same time, many skilled immigrants to these countries are selected from the sciences and must score exceptionally high on language proficiency exams such as the International English Language Testing System.

    This raises questions about how countries assess and utilize human capital, and whether traditional productivity measures fully capture workforce potential.

    Innovation in productivity approaches

    Innovation improves productivity, yet Canada’s 2024 budget fails to embrace this principle. The 2024 budget prescribed five main strategies to address Canada’s productivity issues:

    • incentives for entrepreneurs;
    • fiscal incentives for productivity-enhancing assets;
    • regulatory sandboxes to reduce bureaucratic red tape;
    • enhanced federal research support;
    • a $200-million investment in the Venture Capital Catalyst Initiative.

    However, the initiatives largely continue to follow the traditional approach which focuses on incentivizing businesses to increase output, rather than focusing on workers — the factor most relevant to productivity.

    One of the budget’s major assumptions, which has so far failed to materialize, was that productivity would grow by 1.8 per cent between 2024 and 2028, despite a 1.8 per cent decline over the previous three years and a 0.8 per cent decline over the preceding decade.

    Another overlooked factor is that declining wages also decrease productivity. Instead of focusing solely on business incentives, a more effective labour-agency approach would also incentivize those who own the denominator in the productivity formula — workers.

    Addressing immigrant underemployment

    Immigrants are the primary drivers of population growth in most OECD countries, yet many end up in precarious employment or underemployed, despite being exceptionally qualified.

    Even when immigrants are employed at the appropriate level, many are underpaid in comparison to non-immigrant workers or their predecessors in the same roles. This wage suppression is at odds with efforts to improve productivity.



    Read more:
    I’ve worked in precarious jobs for more than 10 years – here’s what unions should do to support migrant workers

    This issue is particularly evident in Canada, where conversations about productivity are being shaped by immigration trends. In 2023, Canada welcomed one million new immigrants without a corresponding increase in economic output. From July 2023 to July 2024, immigrant underemployment rose by 3.1 to 12.6 per cent.

    Labour market integration varies across regions. In Alberta, for example, 80 per cent of new jobs between 2018 and 2022 were filled by immigrants, yet, productivity did not rise.

    Some critics have blamed immigrants for Canada’s productivity struggles, but this narrative risks fostering anti-immigrant sentiment. While population growth may contribute to declining per capita productivity, in reality, many highly qualified immigrants end up underemployed or unemployed through no fault of their own.

    A 2024 Statistics Canada report highlighted this missed economic opportunity, stating: “recent immigrants were more likely than people born in Canada to be employed in professional occupations and lower-skilled and labourer occupations.”

    Despite this, the 2024 budget doesn’t address harmful “unproductive immigrant” narratives.

    Driving productivity growth

    Canada’s current approach to productivity is incomplete. While business incentives play a role, productivity growth cannot be achieved without investing in workers — particularly immigrants, who represent a growing share of the workforce.

    Canada and other OECD nations are missing an opportunity by failing to fully utilize immigrant talent. Rather than blaming immigrants for productivity declines, countries should recognize immigrants as valuable contributors. Proper credential recognition and expanding workforce integration programs could allow immigrants to contribute at their full economic potential.



    Read more:
    Canadian immigrants are overqualified and underemployed — reforms must address this

    A truly innovative productivity strategy would fund reskilling, upskilling and mentorship programs for immigrants and youth. It would also support equity initiatives to ensure immigrants aren’t exploited or paid less than their counterparts.

    Improving career mobility is also essential. Helping immigrants transition into high-output sectors, such as technology or engineering, through retraining programs and targeted incentives could strengthen productivity.

    Addressing wage inequity is also crucial. Ensuring immigrants receive fair wages aligned with their qualifications will improve worker motivation and productivity, consistent with the arguments of efficient wage theory.

    If these issues remain unaddressed, Canada risks continued productivity stagnation by overlooking a key opportunity to harness the potential of its immigrant workforce.

    Ako Ufodike receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.

    – ref. Canada’s productivity strategy needs to centre workers – https://theconversation.com/canadas-productivity-strategy-needs-to-centre-workers-249669

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: We need meaningful, not less, EDI and climate action in turbulent times

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sarah E. Sharma, Assistant Professor, School of Political Studies, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

    Today, both climate action and equity, diversity and inclusion (EDI) are increasingly under attack. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the United States, where the Trump administration is leading a concerted effort to obstruct climate action and penalize EDI.

    A federal judge recently granted an injunction blocking U.S. government officials from terminating or changing federal contracts they consider equity-related.

    The injunction comes just over a month after President Donald Trump signed executive orders that end federal government support for programs promoting EDI. The judge found the executive orders could likely violate the U.S. Constitution and free-speech rights.

    In Canada, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has blamed carbon pricing for driving up prices, despite research showing that it has a minimal impact on inflation. Meanwhile, provincial governments in Alberta and Saskatchewan are pursuing punitive anti-transgender agendas and some universities are moving away from EDI, claiming it promotes exclusion.

    Until recently, governments, universities and corporations faced criticism for their lack of meaningful commitments on EDI and the climate. Many responded with ambitious pledges but insufficient action. This led to greenwashing and diversity-washing, symbolic commitments that mask inaction.

    Hypocrisies in climate and EDI policies have become easy targets for right-wing populists. As a result, EDI and climate action are being scapegoated for broader systemic failures. For instance, the most deadly American plane crash in two decades has been baselessly linked to EDI, rather than clear evidence of systemic failures.

    There are good reasons to challenge greenwashing and diversity-washing. Yet, denigrating climate and DEI actions wholesale avoids tackling the roots of complex problems and can have dangerous outcomes.

    Why we need meaningful EDI in climate action

    Climate policies that ignore social justice deepen exclusion, weaken public buy-in and provoke backlash. A just energy transition requires policies that resonate with marginalized communities and with those who feel threatened by change. Without this, opposition will only grow.

    We recently published a journal article, co-authored with researchers Neelakshi Joshi and Georgia Savvidou, outlining how greenwashing, diversity-washing and the backlash against EDI all undermine effective climate action. We argue that we cannot address environmental challenges without confronting class, gender and racial inequities.

    EDI is rooted in historical social movements that fought against exclusion. Established rights — like maternity leave, anti-discrimination in the workplace and marriage equality — are all products of these movements.

    Over the past decade, movements like #MeToo, Black Lives Matter and Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls have advanced our understanding of systemic discrimination. EDI efforts have aimed to make institutions more representative and reduce inequalities in workplaces and society.

    EDI in climate action has also gained traction, particularly through the push for a “just transition.” This movement seeks to restructure energy systems fairly and inclusively, ensuring no one is left behind.

    Energy systems are deeply inequitable. Who profits, who has access and who shapes energy policy is highly uneven. Meaningful EDI that redistributes these benefits is essential. This includes the need to support workers in fossil fuel industries and the most vulnerable to climate impacts.

    Ironically, political leaders who oppose EDI on merit grounds appoint key figures with no expertise. They ignore that diversity expands merit, not lowers it — EDI removes barriers, not standards.

    Meaningful EDI in energy transitions

    In our journal article we outline how public and private leaders make bold promises without transformative action, leading to greenwashing and diversity-washing.

    Insufficient and superficial efforts can hinder systemic change. In the energy sector, simply prioritizing boardroom and workforce diversity does not necessarily guarantee fairer working conditions or tangible benefits for local communities.

    We must move beyond empty greenwashing and diversity-washing rhetoric towards actions that target the needs of diverse populations where they live and work.

    For example, community-led clean energy projects enable citizens to actively participate in energy transitions. Indigenous-led renewable energy ownership facilitates Indigenous sovereignty. Community organizations like Empower Me address the energy poverty faced by newcomers, immigrants, single mothers, seniors and others.

    These examples demonstrate that more diverse perspectives are needed not to pursue EDI for its own sake, but to transform energy systems in real ways for more people.

    When diverse experiences are not taken into account, our energy and climate decisions are prone to blind-spots and groupthink. This locks us further into existing practices, rather than opening up innovative and transformative paths.

    We must reconnect with reality and not hide in fantasies that reject natural and social science alike. When EDI is obstructed, we cannot make effective progress on the climate crisis. We lose opportunities to discuss the injustices that are baked into energy systems — discussions that can lead to tailored and targeted policies relevant to the everyone’s needs.

    This means heating, cooling and transport options that work for people of all backgrounds, income and ability levels, and initiatives that suit rural and remote communities as well as urban residents.

    In turbulent times, the world needs more meaningful EDI, not less.

    Sarah E. Sharma receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Department of National Defence’s Mobilizing Insights in Defence and Security (MINDS) program.

    Amy Janzwood receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    Julie MacArthur receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    Runa Das receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. We need meaningful, not less, EDI and climate action in turbulent times – https://theconversation.com/we-need-meaningful-not-less-edi-and-climate-action-in-turbulent-times-249683

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘Your life becomes a nightmare’: how scam operations exploit those trapped inside – Scam Factories podcast, Ep 2

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gemma Ware, Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

    A few weeks after Ben Yeo travelled to Cambodia for what he thought was a job in a casino, he found himself locked up in a padded room. “It’s a combination between a prison and a madhouse,” he remembers. He was being punished for refusing to conduct online scams.

    “They tried all kinds of coercive manoeuvres, using a fire extinguisher to try to hit me, to scare me, using a plastic bag over my head to suffocate me … Whatever you see in the movies that actually happened.”

    Scam Factories is a podcast series from The Conversation Weekly taking you inside Southeast Asia’s brutal fraud compounds. It accompanies a series of multimedia articles on The Conversation.

    In the second episode, Inside the Operation, we explore the history of how scam compounds emerged in Southeast Asia and who is behind them. We hear about the violent treatment people receive inside through the testimonies of two survivors, Ben, and another man we’re calling George to protect his real identity.

    The Conversation collaborated for this series with three researchers: Ivan Franceschini, a lecturer in Chinese Studies at the University of Melbourne, Ling Li, a PhD candidate at Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, and Mark Bo, an independent researcher.

    They’ve spent the past few years researching the expansion of scam compounds in the region for a forthcoming book. They’ve interviewed nearly 100 survivors of the compounds, analysed maps and financial documents related to the scam industry and tracked scammers online to find out how these compounds work.

    Read an article by Ivan Franceschini and Ling Li which accompanies this episode about the rise of the scamming industry.

    The Conversation contacted AsiaHR international for comment. We did not receive a response. We contacted all the other companies mentioned in this multimedia series for comment, except Jinshui who we could not contact. We did not receive a response from them either.

    This episode was written and produced by Gemma Ware, with assistance from Mend Mariwany and Katie Flood. Leila Goldstein was our producer in Cambodia and Halima Athumani recorded for us in Uganda. Hui Lin helped us with Chinese translation. Sound design by Michelle Macklem and editing help from Ashlynee McGhee and Justin Bergman.

    Listen to The Conversation Weekly podcast via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here.

    Mark Bo, an independent researcher who works with Ivan Franeschini and Ling Li, is also interviewed in this podcast series. Ivan, Ling, Mark, and others have co-founded EOS Collective, a non-profit organisation dedicated to investigating the criminal networks behind the online scam industry and supporting survivors.

    – ref. ‘Your life becomes a nightmare’: how scam operations exploit those trapped inside – Scam Factories podcast, Ep 2 – https://theconversation.com/your-life-becomes-a-nightmare-how-scam-operations-exploit-those-trapped-inside-scam-factories-podcast-ep-2-250464

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A Palestinian-Israeli film is an Oscars favorite − so why is it so hard to see?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Drew Paul, Associate Professor of Arabic, University of Tennessee

    Directors Basel Adra, left, and Yuval Abraham on stage at the 62nd New York Film Festival on Sept. 29, 2024. Jamie McCarthy/Getty Images

    For many low-budget, independent films, an Oscar nomination is a golden ticket.

    The publicity can translate into theatrical releases or rereleases, along with more on-demand rentals and sales.

    However, for “No Other Land,” a Palestinian-Israeli film nominated for best documentary at the 2025 Academy Awards, this exposure is unlikely to translate into commercial success in the U.S. That’s because the film has been unable to find a company to distribute it in America.

    “No Other Land” chronicles the efforts of Palestinian townspeople to combat an Israeli plan to demolish their villages in the West Bank and use the area as a military training ground. It was directed by four Palestinian and Israeli activists and journalists: Basel Adra, who is a resident of the area facing demolition, Yuval Abraham, Hamdan Ballal and Rachel Szor. While the filmmakers have organized screenings in a number of U.S. cities, the lack of a national distributor makes a broader release unlikely.

    Film distributors are a crucial but often unseen link in the chain that allows a film to reach cinemas and people’s living rooms. In recent years it has become more common for controversial award-winning films to run into issues finding a distributor. Palestinian films have encountered additional barriers.

    As a scholar of Arabic who has written about Palestinian cinema, I’m disheartened by the difficulties “No Other Land” has faced. But I’m not surprised.

    The role of film distributors

    Distributors are often invisible to moviegoers. But without one, it can be difficult for a film to find an audience.

    Distributors typically acquire rights to a film for a specific country or set of countries. They then market films to movie theaters, cinema chains and streaming platforms. As compensation, distributors receive a percentage of the revenue generated by theatrical and home releases.

    The film “Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat,” another finalist for best documentary, shows how this process typically works. It premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2024 and was acquired for distribution just a few months later by Kino Lorber, a major U.S.-based distributor of independent films.

    The inability to find a distributor is not itself noteworthy. No film is entitled to distribution, and most films by newer or unknown directors face long odds.

    However, it is unusual for a film like “No Other Land,” which has garnered critical acclaim and has been recognized at various film festivals and award shows. Some have pegged it as a favorite to win best documentary at the Academy Awards. And “No Other Land” has been able to find distributors in Europe, where it’s easily accessible on multiple streaming platforms.

    So why can’t “No Other Land” find a distributor in the U.S.?

    There are a couple of factors at play.

    Shying away from controversy

    In recent years, film critics have noticed a trend: Documentaries on controversial topics have faced distribution difficulties. These include a film about a campaign by Amazon workers to unionize and a documentary about Adam Kinzinger, one of the few Republican congresspeople to vote to impeach Donald Trump in 2021.

    The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, of course, has long stirred controversy. But the release of “No Other Land” comes at a time when the issue is particularly salient. The Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, and the ensuing Israeli bombardment and invasion of the Gaza Strip have become a polarizing issue in U.S. domestic politics, reflected in the campus protests and crackdowns in 2024. The filmmakers’ critical comments about the Israeli occupation of Palestine have also garnered backlash in Germany.

    Locals attend a screening of ‘No Other Land’ in the village of A-Tuwani in the West Bank on March 14, 2024.
    Yahel Gazit/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

    Yet the fact that this conflict has been in the news since October 2023 should also heighten audience interest in a film such as “No Other Land” – and, therefore, lead to increased sales, the metric that distributors care about the most.

    Indeed, an earlier film that also documents Palestinian protests against Israeli land expropriation, “5 Broken Cameras,” was a finalist for best documentary at the 2013 Academy Awards. It was able to find a U.S. distributor. However, it had the support of a major European Union documentary development program called Greenhouse. The support of an organization like Greenhouse, which had ties to numerous production and distribution companies in Europe and the U.S., can facilitate the process of finding a distributor.

    By contrast, “No Other Land,” although it has a Norwegian co-producer and received some funding from organizations in Europe and the U.S., was made primarily by a grassroots filmmaking collective.

    Stages for protest

    While distribution challenges may be recent, controversies surrounding Palestinian films are nothing new.

    Many of them stem from the fact that the system of film festivals, awards and distribution is primarily based on a movie’s nation of origin. Since there is no sovereign Palestinian state – and many countries and organizations have not recognized the state of Palestine – the question of how to categorize Palestinian films has been hard to resolve.

    In 2002, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences rejected the first ever Palestinian film submitted to the best foreign language film category – Elia Suleiman’s “Divine Intervention” – because Palestine was not recognized as a country by the United Nations. The rules were changed for the following year’s awards ceremony.

    In 2021, the cast of the film “Let It Be Morning,” which had an Israeli director but primarily Palestinian actors, boycotted the Cannes Film Festival in protest of the film’s categorization as an Israeli film rather than a Palestinian one.

    Film festivals and other cultural venues have also become places to make statements about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and engage in protest. For example, at the Cannes Film Festival in 2017, the right-wing Israeli culture minister wore a controversial – and meme-worthy – dress that featured the Jerusalem skyline in support of Israeli claims of sovereignty over the holy city, despite the unresolved status of Jerusalem under international law.

    Israeli Culture Minister Miri Regev wears a dress featuring the old city of Jerusalem during the Cannes Film Festival in 2017.
    Antonin Thuillier/AFP via Getty Images

    At the 2024 Academy Awards, a number of attendees, including Billie Eilish, Mark Ruffalo and Mahershala Ali, wore red pins in support of a ceasefire in Gaza, and pro-Palestine protesters delayed the start of the ceremonies.

    So even though a film like “No Other Land” addresses a topic of clear interest to many people in the U.S., it faces an uphill battle to finding a distributor.

    I wonder whether a win at the Oscars would even be enough.

    This article has been updated to clarify that the film was a collaborative effort between Palestinian and Israeli filmmakers.

    Drew Paul does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A Palestinian-Israeli film is an Oscars favorite − so why is it so hard to see? – https://theconversation.com/a-palestinian-israeli-film-is-an-oscars-favorite-so-why-is-it-so-hard-to-see-249233

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Fossil footprints reveal what may be the oldest known handcarts – new research

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Matthew Robert Bennett, Professor of Environmental and Geographical Sciences, Bournemouth University

    If you’re a parent you’ve probably tried, at some point, to navigate the supermarket with a trolley, and at least one child in tow. But our new study suggests there was an ancient equivalent, dating to 22,000 years ago. This handcart, without wheels, was used before wheeled vehicles were invented around 5,000 years ago in the Middle East.

    Recently our research team discovered some remarkable fossil traces which might give a hint. These traces were found alongside some of the oldest known human footprints in the Americas at a place called White Sands in New Mexico.

    In the last few years, several footprint discoveries at this site have begun to rewrite early American history – pushing back the arrival of the first people to enter this land by 8,000 years.

    There is some controversy around the age (23,000 years old) of these footprints, with some researchers unhappy with our dating methods. But they provide a remarkable picture of past life on the margins of a large wetland at the end of the last ice age.

    The footprints tell stories, written in mud, of how people lived, hunted and survived in this land. Footprints connect people to the past in a way that a stone tool or archaeological artefact never can. Traditional archaeology is based on the discovery of stone tools. Most people today have never made a stone tool but almost all of us will have left a footprint at some time, even if it is only on the floor of the bathroom.

    Today, modern shopping trolleys can be found rusting in canals, rivers or abandoned in shrubbery. But ancient versions would have probably been of wood and simply rotted away. We know that transport technology must have existed.

    Everyone has stuff to transport, but we have no record of it until written histories. At White Sands, we found drag-marks made by the ends of wooden poles while excavating for fossil footprints. Sometimes these appear as just one trace, while at other times they occur as two parallel, equidistant traces.

    A pole or poles used in this fashion is called a travois. These drag-marks are preserved in dried mud that was buried by sediment and revealed by a combination of erosion and excavation. The drag-marks extend for dozens of metres before disappearing beneath overlying sediment. They clip barefoot human tracks along their length, suggesting the user dragged the travois over their own footprints as they went along.

    To help interpret these features, we conducted a series of tests on mud flats both in Dorset, UK, and on the coast of Maine, US. We used different combinations of poles to recreate simple, hand-pulled travois.

    In our experiments the pole-ends dragged along the mud truncate footprints in the same way as the fossil example in New Mexico. These features in the fossil examples were also always associated with lot of other human footprints travelling in a similar direction, many of which, judging by their size, were made by children.

    We believe the footprints and drag-marks tell a story of the movement of resources at the edge of this former wetland. Adults pulled the simple, probably improvised travois, while a group of children tagged along to the side and behind.

    The research team has benefited from the insight of the Indigenous peoples we work with at White Sands, and they interpret the marks in this way as well. We cannot discount that some of the marks may be made by dragging firewood, but this does not fit all the cases we found.

    Travois are known from historical documents and accounts of Indigenous peoples and their traditions. They were more commonly associated with dogs or horses, but they were pulled by humans in our tests.

    As such they represent early examples of the handcart or wheelbarrow, but without the wheel. The earliest record of a wheeled vehicle dates from Mesopotamia (modern day Iraq), in 2,500BC. We think the travois were probably improvised from tent poles, firewood and spears when the need arose.

    Maybe they were created to help move camp, or more likely, transport meat from a hunting-site. In the latter context the analogy with the shopping trolley comes to the fore, as does the pained expression of the adults faces as they quest for resources with a gaggle of children in tow.

    Matthew Robert Bennett receives funding from Arts and Humanities Research Council.

    Sally Christine Reynolds does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Fossil footprints reveal what may be the oldest known handcarts – new research – https://theconversation.com/fossil-footprints-reveal-what-may-be-the-oldest-known-handcarts-new-research-250438

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sanctions rarely achieve their goals – here’s why they failed in Russia and Myanmar

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sergey Sosnovskikh, Lecturer in International Business, Manchester Metropolitan University

    Sanctions are, according to research, effective less than 10% of the time if success is defined as the complete compliance of a sanctioned regime with the imposed external pressure. Taking a more lenient view, which includes partial concessions or negotiated settlements, the success rate rises to 35% at most.

    The idea that sanctions can completely restrict trade to sanctioned countries is largely flawed. Iranian residents, for example, can still access many western products despite sanctions through intermediaries in countries like Turkey and the Gulf states.

    To better understand why sanctions fail, consider the cases of Russia and Myanmar. The sanctions imposed on Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have undoubtedly caused some economic disruption, including inflation, labour shortages and a devaluation of the Russian rouble. But they have had a limited impact overall.

    In April 2024, the International Monetary Fund predicted that Russia’s economy would grow faster than all of the world’s advanced economies that year, including the US.

    Many countries have not participated in the west’s sanctions regime, which has created enforcement gaps. These gaps have largely enabled Russia to maintain access to sanctioned goods and continue its economic activities.

    In January 2023, a US thinktank called Silverado reported that some former Soviet states had increased their “transshipment” of goods produced by multinational firms that no longer export to Russia directly.

    Transshipment is a process where cargo is unloaded from one vessel and reloaded into another while in transit. Armenia and Uzbekistan, as well as China and Turkey, are the countries commonly used as “transshipment points” to Russia.

    Indeed, research of our own into how sanctioned goods continue to reach Russia reveals that companies often reroute their supply chains through politically allied intermediary nations. These rerouted imports can, however, drive up product prices for ordinary citizens.

    Stacks of containers at a port in St Petersburg, Russia.
    Andrey Mihaylov / Shutterstock

    Russia has also reduced its dependency on imports by increasing production in sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing. In August 2023, for example, India and Russia signed the biggest ever grain deal between the two countries.

    And the Russian government implemented fiscal and monetary measures, including currency controls and subsidies, to stabilise the economy and support key industries.

    Russia’s large, diverse economy and abundant natural resources make it more resilient to sanctions compared to some smaller and less diversified nations. Much of the world is reliant on Russian gas and, since the imposition of western sanctions, countries like China and India have increased the amount they buy.

    Even the EU is still spending billions of US dollars on Russian gas. In the first 15 days of 2025, after an agreement allowing Russia to pump gas to the EU via pipelines running across Ukraine ended, the EU’s 27 countries imported Russian gas at a record rate.

    Sanctioning Myanmar’s military

    Targeted western sanctions have tried to undermine the financial interests of Myanmar’s military junta, which has been battling armed opposition to its rule since a coup in 2021. But these sanctions have only been partially effective, too.

    China, India, Japan and neighbouring south-east Asian countries continue to engage in business with Myanmar. In Myanmar’s lucrative gas export sector, the vacuum left by departing western companies has been swiftly filled by Asian partners. This has ensured the junta’s income streams remain largely intact.

    Brands that have ostensibly exited the market due to sanctions or activist pressure also remain accessible through the country’s porous border trade. And there have been cases where a significant delay between a company’s declared exit and its actual departure inadvertently allowed operations to continue as usual for some time.

    In 2024, we conducted a study with our colleague Anna Grosman, an expert on innovation and entrepreneurship at Loughborough University, on multinational firms operating in Myanmar. Our findings highlight the dilemma foreign businesses face in sanctioned countries over whether to stay or leave.

    This decision is shaped by formal pressure, such as home and host government restrictions. For instance, a multinational firm’s home government may penalise companies that continue to operate in a sanctioned country, while the host government may impose policies or financial barriers to prevent or delay their exit.

    However, informal pressure from activists, diaspora groups and international advocacy organisations also plays a role. Staying can help businesses avoid financial losses and the complexities of exit, but it also exposes them to reputational damage and ethical dilemmas.

    Western sanctions on Myanmar’s military regime have been ineffective, too.
    R. Bociaga / Shutterstock

    Some of the junta’s financial channels, such as revenue from the jade mining industry, are out of reach for sanctions. In 2021, the US treasury department sanctioned Myanmar’s state-owned gemstone company, Myanmar Gem Enterprise, describing it as “a key economic resource” for the military.

    However, sanctions on Myanmar Gem Enterprise have not been completely effective. Myanmar’s gemstone mining industry is mostly an informal sector, with data on mining income and distribution underreported and opaque. Continued revenue from this sector will almost certainly have further cushioned the impact of western sanctions.

    The sanctions have only partially stopped the flow of income to the junta. But they have contributed to the hardships facing ordinary citizens. Myanmar’s currency has cratered, while imported goods including pharmaceuticals and fuel are in short supply. Power outages are now common and there are soaring levels of unemployment.

    Some western governments have now imposed sanctions on state-owned banks in Myanmar in an attempt to stop revenue from reaching the junta. This move will only worsen the situation facing Myanmar’s people.

    Sanctions drive nations towards building domestic industries to replace imported goods and strengthening alliances with supportive countries. Far from achieving their intended political objectives, sanctions can exacerbate an already volatile geopolitical landscape, while driving up prices for ordinary people.

    But at the same time, governments and businesses have a duty to exit a country when they are no long able to adhere to their own human rights commitments.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sanctions rarely achieve their goals – here’s why they failed in Russia and Myanmar – https://theconversation.com/sanctions-rarely-achieve-their-goals-heres-why-they-failed-in-russia-and-myanmar-244975

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Wales wants to punish lying politicians – how would it work?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen Clear, Lecturer in Constitutional and Administrative Law, and Public Procurement, Bangor University

    shutterstock Minerva Studio/Shutterstock

    Elected politicians and candidates in Wales who deliberately lie could face serious consequences, including being removed from office, under proposals aimed at restoring trust in politics.

    The Senedd’s (Welsh parliament) standards of conduct committee has recommended legally defining political deception, and strengthening existing rules to explicitly ban misleading statements. Proposed potential penalties range from a formal retraction to suspension or, in extreme cases, recall by voters.

    But the committee stopped short of recommending that deliberate deception be made a criminal offence. The idea that politicians who lie could be investigated by the police and courts had previously been mooted. The option of a civil offence with a lower burden of proof being introduced was also rejected.

    The committee has been working on the proposals as a way of restoring faith in politics, and trust in politicians, in the lead up to the next Senedd elections in 2026. While the report sets out options for change, the Welsh government has already promised to introduce a legal ban (in some form) before the next election.

    These efforts see Wales become the first UK nation to attempt to tackle the problem of dwindling trust in politics by modern day legislative force.

    Those championing the changes refer to how the deliberate rise in campaigns of misinformation, by those of all political persuasions, have in some instances led to electoral victories overseas.

    The need to act is also reflected in the public’s perception. Surveys have consistently found that trust in politicians to tell the truth has declined. A survey in 2023 placed politicians as the least trusted profession in the UK. Just 9% of the public said they trusted elected officials to tell the truth.

    More recently, findings from the British social attitudes report in 2024 revealed that the public is as critical now of how the UK is governed as it has ever been. A record high of 45% of respondents said they now “almost never” trust governments of any party to place the needs of the nation above the interests of their own political party.

    Restoring trust

    The Senedd committee had considered three different options for restoring trust.

    First, to create a criminal offence of deception. Second, to use an existing investigative body such as the Public Services Ombudsman for Wales, and to bring in a civil sanction such as a fine. And third, to strengthen the code of conduct for Senedd members with enhanced sanctions. In other words, it would be dealt with through the Senedd’s own disciplinary procedures.

    To a certain degree there are some mechanisms already in place for dealing with deception in Welsh politics. For example, politicians are already expected to adhere to the seven principles of public life, which include honesty and integrity.

    Generally speaking, opposition Senedd members will hold the Welsh government to account by questioning and scrutinising their work. It is also possible to stage votes of no confidence as an accountability mechanism.

    Although as seen in the case of former first minister Vaughan Gething, it is questionable as to the extent to which they can be enforced. Gething initially refused to step down after losing such a vote.

    The electorate also has an important role to play in holding politicians to account. Ultimately an untrustworthy politician should, in theory at least, be unlikely to win any election. But Senedd elections only take place every five years.

    The standards of conduct committee already has the power to review complaints referred to it. It also has responsibility for reviewing the code of conduct for members of the Senedd, guidance on the code and complaints procedures, and rules for lobbying.

    Part of the perceived problem with this is that the committee is made up of Senedd members and are, therefore, responsible for setting the rules for themselves. Or alternatively, as Plaid Cymru MS Adam Price (who has campaigned on this issue for many years) put it, it’s like marking your own homework. The committee’s report offers a potential of recommending appointing lay members to sit alongside them.

    Proposals to legislate against politicians who lie in Wales were first raised by the Plaid Cymru MS, Adam Price.
    ComposedPix/Shutterstock

    Some may be concerned about the practical complexities of disqualifying candidates and Senedd members, and where that may, in turn, leave democracy and democratic processes. If sanctions were to be introduced, questions could also be raised about the potential for vexatious complaints to discredit electoral candidates.



    Read more:
    Wales could become world’s first country to criminalise politicians who lie

    In respect of making “deception” a criminal offence, concerns may have been raised about the constitutional principle of separation of powers, and whether it should truly be for unelected judges to take decisions about the democratically elected arm of the state. Or whether that could lead to the politicisation of the judiciary.

    While, research had found that more than two-thirds of Welsh voters supported a law criminalising political lying, judicial adjudication for serving Senedd members has been ruled out. The report also details concerns from the legal professions that existing resource pressures on the courts would have lead to long disputes, rather than the swift resolutions.

    But in reality, we are talking about strengthening safeguards for maintaining standards in public offices. In particular addressing deliberate mistruths by politicians to secure deceitful advantages during an election.

    In that sense, the new legislation is essentially bringing the political profession in line with others such as lawyers, doctors, journalistic and financial institutions, by having clearer repercussions when they lie and fail to maintain professional standards.

    Given the need for something to change in order to restore trust, and the extensive powers that politicians have to affect the lives of citizens, it is clear why Wales is trying a different approach towards restoring trust.

    Stephen Clear does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Wales wants to punish lying politicians – how would it work? – https://theconversation.com/wales-wants-to-punish-lying-politicians-how-would-it-work-248728

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Donald Trump wants to bring back plastic straws, but the world is going in another direction

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Randa Lindsey Kachef, Research affiliate, King’s College London

    David Pereiras / shutterstock

    Donald Trump recently surprised the world again by signing an action to end what he describes as the “forced use” of paper straws. Although there is some merit in the argument the White House presents that paper straws simply aren’t fit for purpose, what the paper straw revolution represents is the power of individual change in enacting progressive policy.

    Much like recent EU legislation which required all plastic bottles to have caps attached by a tether, the removal of items that tend to be easily littered is a way to help people be more environmentally cautious without any extra effort. Unfortunately, the paper straw appears to have failed in this endeavour.

    We should not stop this trajectory because of one fail, however. Even if paper straws are not a viable option, we mustn’t let their fate undermine all initiatives to reduce the impacts of single use plastics.

    The story behind the move away from plastic straws began in 2015, when a disturbing video of a turtle having a plastic straw removed from its nose went viral. Unfortunately this appears to be a common occurrence, with a video of a turtle with a plastic fork in its nose posted only a few months later. This shows plastic straws themselves are not the issue and that there is a wider problem that everyone should be aware of: plastic which ends up in the ocean is often mistaken for food and eaten by wildlife.

    Paper problems

    Admittedly, anyone who has used a paper straw will agree that they are not a viable alternative to plastic. The obvious complaint is that they get soggy too quickly. But there are several unseen components that show the switch to paper may not be as great as we once thought.

    Paper, but plastic-coated?
    Sia Footage / shutterstock

    To begin with, in an effort to keep them water-resistant, paper straws themselves are coated in plastic. This means they cannot be recycled. As they are an organic material, they release greenhouse gas when they decompose in landfill – they can however safely be incinerated, something that is not widely recommended for their plastic counterparts.

    As the demand for paper straws skyrocketed, this created a deficit in production, leading to the development of new manufacturing facilities, construction that in itself has a significant environmental impact. Meanwhile, the heavier weight of paper straws can lead to an increase in freighting fuel consumption and associated emissions.

    Flimsy plastics are more likely to be littered

    Anything, however, is better than plastic. A somewhat misleading statistic that plastic straws account for a mere 0.025% of ocean plastics has been circulating in the argument to bring them back. Although this is true by volume, it is not a correct representation of the sheer number of individual straws recorded in the environment which is suspected to be as many as 8.3 billion, about one per person on earth.

    The fact straws are so small and lightweight is a big part of the problem, since smaller and more easily fragmented items are far harder to collect. As litter, they punch above their weight.

    A child’s plastic beach toy may weigh as much as a few hundred plastic straws, but if littered the straws would do more harm to the environment and wildlife, and would look worse. As straws are made of polypropylene, a flimsier more brittle type of plastic, it doesn’t take much effort for them to break apart into bite sized pieces. Because of this, straws turn into microplastics much quicker than the toy, which has a higher chance of eventually being picked up.

    To this day, straws continue to to be on the top ten types of plastics found on beaches, and we have yet to see any videos of larger pollutants like those beach toys being pulled from the nose of any animal.

    Although we could argue indefinitely as to which straw materials are worse (reuseable metal or glass straws require water and a cleaning agent, another potential contaminant) the overarching sentiment is the most alarming component of Trump’s announcement.

    Paper straw pressue came from below

    The move towards paper straws was a refreshing direction in environmental preservation, in that it was initiated locally and by producers, not through legislation. In the summer of 2018 Seattle became the first US city to enforce a ban on plastic utensils, straws and cocktail sticks. Soon thereafter, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Alaska Airlines and many others announced they would stop the sale of plastic straws.

    Later that year, the UK government and European Union began consultations for national bans which came into effect in 2020 and 2021 respectively. In 2019 Canada followed suit with a ban coming into law in 2022.

    It was not until July of 2024 that the then US president, Joe Biden announced his plan to phase out single-use plastics (although the fact sheet and official press release has now been removed from the White House website). This was several years after the global movement got underway – accompanied by the first complaints from Trump on the topic in 2019.

    It is important to note that both the EU and UK bans on plastic straws included stirrers and cotton bud sticks. However their removal from the market caused little to no controversy, mostly because there are adequate alternatives.

    Litter producers can drive change

    What the movement towards paper straws represents is the power of producers to drive change, in a bottom-up approach. A similarly encouraging scenario can be seen in attitudes towards polystyrene.

    Back in 2019 Dunkin’ Donuts announced it would stop using foam cups in certain US markets, and delivered a full removal of the cups in the US by early 2020, while in January 2025 California introduced a state wide polystyrene ban. Meanwhile, negotiations on a global plastics agreement remain indecisive.

    In the wake of a pattern of stalemate and regressive policy, it is on the consumers and producers to take action. We must continue to support producers who invest in innovation to address these issues in a way that makes our lives easier and cleaner.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Randa Lindsey Kachef does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Donald Trump wants to bring back plastic straws, but the world is going in another direction – https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-wants-to-bring-back-plastic-straws-but-the-world-is-going-in-another-direction-250449

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –