Category: Global

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Charles Dickens would have made Great Expectations a videogame if he were writing today

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lynda Clark, Lecturer in Creative Writing (Interdisciplinary Futures), University of Edinburgh

    Despite dying over 100 years before the release of Pong, the novelist Charles Dickens has connections to a number of videogames. He appears as a character in Assassin’s Creed Syndicate (2015); is the subject of a mobile app walking-tour, Charles Dickens London: The Writer’s Journey (2022); and his works are brought to virtual life in the forthcoming The Mysteries of Gad’s Hill Place.

    There’s also plenty in Dickens’ work to suggest that were he alive today, he may be writing his own videogames as well as appearing in them.

    Great Expectations (1861) in particular demonstrates Dickens’ ludic credentials. A sense of progression is common in the Bildungsroman or “progress” novel, but Pip seems to embody ideas of “levelling-up” more reminiscent of a playable character accumulating XP (experience points) than a typical protagonist.

    Pip (Philip Pirrip) is a young blacksmith’s apprentice whose life is dramatically changed when he inherits a great fortune. Pip’s guardian, Mr Jaggers, who is also the lawyer in charge of the inheritance, describes Pip’s “expectations” (inheritance) as if it is an attainable in-game currency.

    He makes it clear, just as a videogame NPC (non-playable character) might, how the story’s currency should be spent – on items befitting a gentleman, just as a videogame character might spend on costumes and items for their inventory. As Jaggers puts it, the inheritance is “a sum of money amply sufficient for your suitable education and maintenance”


    This article is part of Rethinking the Classics. The stories in this series offer insightful new ways to think about and interpret classic books and artworks. This is the canon – with a twist.


    On his path to becoming a gentleman, Pip must develop himself in various areas such as intellect and eloquence, and acquire new clothes, which, it is implied, will confer new “powers”. They should not, Mr Jaggers stresses, be “working clothes”.

    This spiritual, physical and sartorial growth is not unlike that found in many roleplaying games such as Metaphor: Refantazio (2024), where the protagonist must develop “royal virtues” through building relationships with followers. This is reminiscent of the way Pip must build his relationship with the wealthy, eccentric Miss Havisham to further his place in society. Like Pip, the protagonist of Metaphor: Refantazio also gains access to progressively advantageous clothing and accessories as the story advances.

    Dickens appears as a character in the game Assassin’s Creed Syndicate.

    As literary theorist Peter Brooks has observed, even Pip’s name is representative of growth – a seed full of potential, the kind of on-the-nose naming scheme that would make auteur videogame designer Hideo Kojima proud. Many of Kojima’s characters in the Metal Gear franchise are named in the same way, such as Fragile, the director of a delivery company that has the motto “handled with love”.

    And before we even get into the story itself, the contents page in later collected editions arranges protagonist Pip’s journey into “stages” – a term more commonly found in videogames.

    Expectations and endings

    Perhaps the strongest argument for Great Expectations as evidence of Dickens’ potential as a videogame writer are its multiple endings. The published ending alludes to future romance. After a chance meeting four years after the primary events of the novel, Pip takes fellow orphan Estella’s hand and sees “no shadow of another parting from her”.

    However the alternate version, often presented as an appendix, has a quite different outlook. Again Pip runs into Estella, and they share fond words, but this time there is no sign of a romantic union. Instead, it’s suggested that the suffering Estella has endured through a cruel marriage has given her a deeper understanding of Pip’s life – “a heart to understand what [his] used to be”.


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    This downbeat tone is more akin to the so-called “bad” ending (or fail state) of choice-based videogames. These are endings which occur when the player has not sufficiently developed their character, or made poor conversational choices during their play.

    Even the published ending is not necessarily so positive if the reader has been paying attention to all of Pip’s “side-quests”. Both he and Estella are childhood wards of Miss Havisham, and in adulthood, a man named Magwitch plays father-figure to Pip and is Estella’s actual father.

    Therefore, it is only possible to accept their union as romantic if putting aside facts which, to contemporary readers at least, may well have verged on incest. This means there are two possible endings even within the single published ending – one where he commits near-incest and one where he doesn’t, depending on your interpretation.

    It could also be argued that the ending of each “stage” is its own potential end, thereby increasing the number of possible endings further still. For instance, literary theorist Caroline Levine has suggested another alternative ending in Pip’s imagined possible future with his childhood friend and confidante, Biddy.

    This kind of premature ending is frequently found in narrative videogames. A memorable example is Far Cry 4 (2014), where it’s possible to get the credits rolling some 15 minutes into a game which typically lasts as long as 60 hours.

    Had Dickens been writing today, I have no doubt he would have seen great narrative potential in videogames, just as modern videogame creators find inspiration in his novels.

    Beyond the canon

    As part of the Rethinking the Classics series, we’re asking our experts to recommend a book or artwork that tackles similar themes to the canonical work in question, but isn’t (yet) considered a classic itself. Here is Lynda Clark’s suggestion:

    The novel All You Need Is Kill by Hiroshi Sakurazaka (2004) remains underappreciated, despite already having been adapted into a manga (2014) and a film (2014’s Edge of Tomorrow).

    Like Pip, young soldier Keiji Kiriya is required to undergo intellectual, physical and emotional growth in order to progress. He undertakes this process of “levelling up” in an even more ludic manner, dying and “respawning” (resurrecting) with knowledge of his previous lives. Each death suggests a potential end, and his relationship with fellow time-looped soldier Rita Vrataski is open to similar interpretations of bittersweet love, doomed romance or platonic respect – depending on reader preference.

    Lynda Clark undertook part of this research during an AHRC-funded PhD.

    ref. Why Charles Dickens would have made Great Expectations a videogame if he were writing today – https://theconversation.com/why-charles-dickens-would-have-made-great-expectations-a-videogame-if-he-were-writing-today-249199

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kim Jong-un is launching a crackdown on North Korea’s drinking culture

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By David Hall, PhD Candidate in Korean Studies, University of Central Lancashire

    North Korean leader Kim Jong-un recently chaired a meeting of the Korean Worker’s Party Secretariat, the body responsible for prescribing correct behaviour and ensuring it’s adhered to by party members. The party’s official newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, reported that this meeting was convened to address various shortcomings in discipline (tangnaegyuryurŭl ranp’ok) – including binge drinking by some party officials.

    The meeting was concerned with two violations of party discipline in particular. Party officials in Onchon County (about 60km west of the capital, Pyongyang) were accused of making inadequate preparations for their local party meeting, which – as a result – was held in a “grossly formalistic (hyŏngshikchŏkŭro) way”.

    In North Korea’s early political history, accusations of being formalistic related to overly celebrating foreign governments and their methods of socialism. But used in relation to the officials in Onchon County, it meant going through the motions, and not displaying enough genuine enthusiasm and engagement with the political process.

    This lack of ideological zeal was reportedly further displayed when 40 of the officials went on a “drinking spree” – an act considered directly opposed to the party’s line on maintaining discipline. In the English-language version of the Rodong Sinmun news article, these officials were branded as a “corrupt group”. But in the Korean-language version, they were more colourfully condemned as a “rotten group” (ssŏgŏppajin muri) and an “arrogant rabble” (pangjahan ohapchijol).

    In response, Kim stated that the behaviour of the party officials was a “political and moral” crime which undermined the foundations of the Korean Worker’s Party. Consequently, the Onchon County party committee was dissolved and the 40 officials involved in the drunken revelry were earmarked for punishment. While it was not mentioned what punishment the officials would receive, it’s likely at the very least they will be subject to ideological re-education.

    Accusations of drunkenness and alcoholism as a means of criticising and purging party officials is nothing new in North Korea. In December 1955, Pak Il-u (then the minister of post and telecommunications) was accused of leading a depraved lifestyle and being an alcoholic. This was done to besmirch his reputation, justify his expulsion from the Korean Worker’s Party, and imprison him.

    It isn’t illegal to drink in North Korea. Alcohol has a strong cultural presence: it is used on formal occasions to celebrate weddings, relieve sadness during funerals, and commemorate the birthdays of leaders.

    In recent years, the country has even promoted its alcoholic products on postage stamps. In 2022, the government issued a stamp depicting three variations of Taedonggang Beer, produced at a state-owned domestic brewery since 2002. The beer is named after the Taedong river, which runs through Pyongyang.

    The following year, a stamp depicting Pyongyang Soju was issued. This rice and corn-based liquor has been produced at a state-owned factory since 2009. With an alcohol content of 25%, North Korea’s soju has a higher alcohol content than South Korea’s best-selling version, Jinro Chamisul Original (20.1% ABV).

    In June 2015, Kim designated Pyongyang Soju as the national liquor – underlining that alcohol holds an important place both in North Korea’s cultural heritage and contemporary society.

    That’s not to say North Koreans are heavy drinkers compared with their compatriots in the south, who – according to pre-COVID statistics – drink about twice as much. In North Korea, a litre of alcohol costs about the same as a kilo of corn (a proxy for a day’s food), which may explain this.

    Political and moral vice

    But excessive drinking is regarded, as Kim stated, as a political and moral vice. Alcohol and other drug taking, such as methamphetamine use, is bound up with mental health as a sign of degeneracy.

    Given that mental health care in North Korea is virtually non-existent (mental health conditions are correlated with ideological problems), drinking, smoking and other drug use often become coping mechanisms for people living there. But these have all become regarded as anti-state activities.

    In recent years, North Korea has cracked down more strictly on what is seen as the “ideological and cultural poisoning” of society. For example, it has been reported that people have been sentenced to lengthy prison sentences or execution for consuming and/or distributing foreign media, using foreign slang terms, or wearing foreign clothes and hairstyles.

    Divorcing couples and those caught selling hot dogs have reportedly been the most recent examples of people’s anti-state behaviour receiving labour camp sentences. Divorce represents dissent to the socialist idea of collectivism, prioritising group needs (family) over individual desires.

    Therefore, the attack on excessive alcohol consumption – and it being publicly reported on – can be seen as another development in the trend of North Korea clamping down on individualistic behaviour, because it does not conform to the ideals of how people in this socialist society should behave.

    David Hall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Kim Jong-un is launching a crackdown on North Korea’s drinking culture – https://theconversation.com/kim-jong-un-is-launching-a-crackdown-on-north-koreas-drinking-culture-249514

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: How virtual reality could help revive endangered language and culture

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Fabrizio Galeazzi, Associate Professor in Heritage and Creative Technologies, Anglia Ruskin University

    Every two weeks, a language is at risk of disappearing. According to the UN, at least 50% of the 7,000 different languages spoken around the world today could either disappear or become seriously endangered by the end of this century, leading to a significant loss of cultural diversity.

    “A language is not just words. It’s a culture, a tradition and a unification of a community, a whole history that creates what a community is,” as linguist Noam Chomsky once said.

    To help stem the tide, a collaboration between myself and colleagues at the StoryLab research institute at Anglia Ruskin University and creative industry partner NowHere Media is exploring the use of virtual reality (VR) technology and immersive storytelling to try to revitalise endangered indigenous cultures and languages.

    The results of our research interviews with participants suggest immersive stories, when created with communities, can be a powerful way of fostering group identity and promoting the long-term legacy and custodianship of cultural heritage.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.


    Created by NowHere Media before the start of our project, Kusunda VR is an immersive interactive film that encourages viewers to learn key words of the Kusunda language, which is under threat of disappearing in Nepal. The film documents the nomadic way of life of the Kusunda people. It features their language, in the form of interviews with its last remaining speakers.

    NowHere Media worked closely with shaman Lil Bahadur, just one of 150 Kusunda speakers left in the world, and his granddaughter Hima to capture the nomadic Kusunda world and language. They used volumetric filming and photogrammetry – techniques that create a three-dimensional space and allow for a highly realistic and immersive environment – to be played using virtual reality technology. Voice-based interactions help viewers learn some words in the Kusunda language.

    Lil almost lost his mother tongue when he gave up his hunter-gatherer lifestyle to live in the city at the age of 18. But researchers discovered that his teenage granddaughter was passionate about keeping her grandfather’s language – and culture – alive.

    “If the Kusunda language disappears then the existence of the Kusunda people in Nepal will also fade away,” Hima told us. “We’ll lose our identity. That’s why I want to save our language.”

    Hima began learning the language from community elder Gyani Maiya Sen-Kusunda, one of the last speakers of the language, an ambassador for its preservation and a teacher to the emerging generation. She was the original protagonist of Kusunda VR but died at the age of 83 in 2020 during the production of the film.

    Immersive technology

    StoryLab received a grant from the British Academy to evaluate the potential of immersive technology in bringing endangered languages back to life. Our research study, Reviving Kusunda, compared the interactive Kusunda VR experience alongside a short film created during the project. We wanted to to offer an insight into the role of immersive technologies in creating emotional understanding of the subject in comparison to regular film.

    Audio-visual 2D formats such as film have played an important role over the last century in documenting and archiving cultural heritage such as oral traditions, language and traditional art forms. However, we are keen to know how new technologies, such as virtual and augmented reality, compare with existing audio-visual formats.

    Participants in our research – both members of the Kusunda community in Nepal and the public in the UK – identified many benefits to using multiple formats. However, they expressed a clear preference for VR. They highlighted the importance of interactivity and immersion in engaging viewers in the subject matter. With the VR experience, viewers are part of the story – a key aspect that helps revive stories and memories from the past.

    Participants considered VR especially effective in attracting their interest, creating a connection with the subject, and inspiring audiences to engage further with endangered languages and heritage.

    When viewing the VR experience, participants said they felt like a character in the film, and were immersed within the action which made them feel a strong emotional connection. They also noted how crucial it was to “feel” like the Kusunda people. This opens a range of possibilities for the use of VR for the revitalisation of endangered heritage and languages.

    The Reviving Kusunda project highlights how older speakers can educate younger generations about a language in a highly engaging way. We believe there are huge possibilities to use immersive 3D storytelling to revitalise other endangered languages.

    After the success of the Reviving Kusunda project, StoryLab now leads a €3 million Horizon Europe project called Revive. This looks specifically at two endangered European languages – Griko, spoken in parts of southern Italy, and Cornish, a language spoken in Cornwall in the southwest of England.

    This initiative brings together an international consortium of academic and industry partners to explore the integrated use of immersive technologies, data visualisation, archival research and co-creation to protect Europe’s heritage and linguistic capital.

    The aim is for immersive, interactive experiences to be hosted in museums and visitor centres to raise awareness of a region’s culture, as well as adapted to help with more formal language learning in schools and colleges for future generations.

    Participants of the Reviving Kusunda project universally acknowledged the unique way that VR can truly bring aspects of heritage to life, effectively “making intangible [heritage], tangible”.

    In the words of one participant from the Kusunda community: “When I watched the VR today, I felt I was watching the stories grandmother used to tell me. They were in front of my eyes as if they were real.”

    Fabrizio Galeazzi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. How virtual reality could help revive endangered language and culture – https://theconversation.com/how-virtual-reality-could-help-revive-endangered-language-and-culture-247856

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why justice for Ukraine must be at the forefront of peace negotiations

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Oleksa Drachewych, Assistant Professor in History, Western University

    On Feb. 18, representatives from Russia and the United States met in Saudi Arabia to determine if peace in Ukraine is possible. Ukrainian representatives were not invited.

    U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on social media that the meeting was a step in developing an “enduring peace” between Russia and Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in a media interview that the meeting was “very positive” and confirmed the true meaning of the talks was to start normalising relations between Russia and the U.S.

    Although U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed “the Russians want to see the war end,” Russian officials remain committed to their war aims. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov announced before the meetings that Russia would not return Ukrainian territory. After, he stated that should a peace deal be brokered, any peacekeeping forces could not come from NATO nations. The latter statement stunted growing European efforts to develop a security guarantee for Ukraine should a ceasefire be reached.

    Keith Kellogg, U.S. envoy for Kyiv and Moscow, said after his Feb. 20 meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the U.S. is aligned with the nation — and that any end to the war with Russia should ensure there is no “next war”. Yet White House officials do not seem to have Ukraine’s best interest in mind in negotiating a potential resolution to the war.

    For instance, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced on Feb. 12 that the U.S. government doesn’t believe NATO membership for Ukraine “is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.” He added that Ukraine would need to accept territorial concessions to Russia.

    Trump has also increasingly parroted Russian narratives — such as claiming that Ukraine started the war. He has also delegitimized Zelenskyy by claiming he is a “dictator” who refuses to hold elections — despite the nation’s constitution stating elections cannot legally be held under martial law.

    Trump also continues to demand 50 per cent of Ukraine’s natural resources to repay the United States for previous military and financial support. This has led to a deterioration in Ukrainian-U.S. relations at a time where Russian-U.S. relations appear to be improving.




    Read more:
    Ukraine’s natural resources are at centre stage in the ongoing war, and will likely remain there


    European leaders have responded with frustration. Zelenskyy has made his position clear that any negotiation must include Ukraine at the table. Ukraine would not accept an imposed peace.

    Any attempt at negotiating a lasting peace between the two nations must include accountability for Russian crimes.

    The realities of Russia’s invasion

    American overtures for peace have often referred to “stopping the millions of deaths” in Russia’s war in Ukraine. While on the surface this goal is admirable, it oversimplifies the realities of what the last three years of war have done to Ukraine. Namely, Russian forces have committed extensive war crimes and atrocity in Ukraine.

    Russian forces barrage Ukraine with drone strikes and terror bombing — including targeting civilians. Even as negotiations were happening in Saudi Arabia, Russian drones struck Odesa, injuring four civilians. This was the latest in a long line of such attacks. International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrants are out for Russian military leaders on just this issue.

    The Ukrainian government has confirmed over 19,500 Ukrainian children have been abducted by Russian forces. But in July 2023, Russian officials claimed they had over 700,000 Ukrainian children in Russian territory.

    Investigative reporting confirms the Russian government is assimilating these children — forcing them to stop speaking Ukrainian and raising them with a Russian identity. These actions have also led to ICC arrest warrants for Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova, Russia’s Children’s Rights Commissioner who oversees the program. Russia’s actions violate the UN Genocide Convention.

    Widespread sexual assault by Russian forces has been documented against Ukrainian men and women. Torture chambers have also been found in liberated cities. Russian forces committed mass murder in multiple Ukrainian cities — underscored by the discovery of mass graves in Bucha, Izium and Lyman.

    Mariupol, once a city of over 400,000 has been reduced to a population of 120,000 as of 2023. This showcases the devastation caused by Russian forces. Russia has also started seizing buildings to give to Russian settlers to further Russify the city.

    The realities under Russian occupation are only partially known. The Russian government has demanded Ukrainians living under occupation forfeit their Ukrainian identification documents and obtain Russian passports. In schools, Russia has fully implemented its nationalistic curriculum, which includes “anti-Ukrainian propaganda” aimed at assimilating Ukrainian children.

    Against international law, forcible Russification of the Ukrainian people has become a common feature of Russian occupation during this war.

    Ukraine’s fight for justice

    Ukraine continues to fight against Russian occupation. While it’s honourable to want to stop the deaths caused by fighting, the Russian regime’s actions in Ukrainian territory must be remembered too.

    This is why justice is just as important as resolution. While it’s unlikely Russian officials will find themselves before the ICC, there must be some form of accountability for Russian crimes against Ukraine if peace is negotiated. While present frontlines may dictate where Ukraine may be forced to cede territory or freeze conflict, the realities of Russian aggression cannot be ignored.

    Here, history offers a guide for what shouldn’t be done this time when brokering a peace deal.




    Read more:
    How Russia’s fixation on the Second World War helps explain its Ukraine invasion


    During the Second World War, Soviet forces committed extensive war crimes and atrocities. Yet the Soviet Union never faced a reckoning for those acts. Russian officials remember this. As a result, Putin feels empowered to commit similar atrocities in Ukraine — believing Russia, just as the Soviet Union, won’t face any consequences.

    For any possibility of lasting peace, accountability and justice for Russian war crimes must be at the forefront of negotiations. Otherwise, Russia will have learned it can act with impunity — threatening the likelihood of enduring peace for Ukraine.

    Oleksa Drachewych does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Why justice for Ukraine must be at the forefront of peace negotiations – https://theconversation.com/why-justice-for-ukraine-must-be-at-the-forefront-of-peace-negotiations-250208

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: German election: the results explained as Friedrich Merz comes out swinging for Europe

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ed Turner, Reader in Politics, Co-Director, Aston Centre for Europe, Aston University

    Friedrich Merz, the presumptive chancellor of Germany, has confirmed he will seek a coalition with the social democratic SPD after the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) won the February 23 election, topping the poll with 28.5%. Although the SPD has gone from winning the last election to a record low result of 16.4% of the vote, it remains the only credible coalition partner for presumptive chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz.

    Among Merz’s first acts was a bold statement that his first priority is “to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA”.

    Things might have looked different for Merz. Had a small party, (the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW) won just 0.03% less of the vote, Merz would have needed to find a third coalition partner. That would have most likely meant trying to work with the Greens. This would have been a much more difficult circle to square for the centre right and an option that would have come with a far greater risk of early government collapse, if a deal could even have been reached in the first place.

    The far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) had a record result, coming second with a 20.8% share of the vote. Mainstream parties including the CDU/CSU have ruled out any sort of deal with the far right, which the AfD will now be viewing as an opportunity. A further period of CDU/CSU-SPD government at a time of economic challenges will leave the party feeling it has a good opportunity to capitalise on discontent and grow further.

    The 2025 election saw a record low vote share for the CDU/CSU and SPD. It’s notable that none of the leaders of the one-time Volksparteien (“people’s parties” – with a cross-class, cross-society appeal) were popular. Merz fared best among them but on a scale of -5 to +5 for popularity, he achieved an average of precisely 0.

    Worse still was the situation of the centre-right FDP, which crashed out of the parliament on a grand scale, getting just 4.3%, down 7.1 points. Its leader, Christian Lindner, who had brought about the downfall of the previous “traffic light” coalition between his own party, the SPD and the Greens, announced his retirement from politics. The Greens, with a respectable result (11.6%, down 3.1 points), will prepare for a spell in opposition.

    The election shows a country disunited, a long way from being at ease with itself. Observers are immediately struck by the difference between eastern and western Germany. In the east, the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came first in all five states (excluding Berlin, which is a mix of east and west). In the west, with some exceptions, the CDU/CSU was dominant.




    Read more:
    These maps of support for Germany’s far-right AfD lay bare the depth of the urban-rural divide


    It has been evident for some time that concerns about migration as well as a feeling of being treated as second class citizens is driving up support for the far right in the east. Now, opposition to military support for Ukraine and general pessimism are also playing into the trend.

    Age proved another very significant divide. Among those aged 18 to 24, the Left party got 25%, ahead of the AfD (21%). The CDU/CSU took just 13% and the SPD 12% . Among the over 60s, the picture is reversed. The CDU/CSU took 37% and the SPD 23%, while the AfD took 15% and the Left just 5%.

    The Left’s success, at least among the young, was the one big surprise of the election. After a torrid period which saw the departure of leading figure Sahra Wagenknecht and her followers to form a separate party, the Left looked unlikely to meet the 5% vote share threshold needed to enter parliament until very recently. An internal split over Israel and Gaza was also causing difficulties.

    However, the Left profited from the polarisation caused by Friedrich Merz’s decision to press ahead with a vote on hardline policies towards asylum seekers, including more border checks and turning away irregular migrants without processing an asylum claim. A savvy social media campaign spearheaded by the party’s youthful joint parliamentary leader Heidi Reichinnek also helped.

    Meanwhile, the BSW took just 4.97% of the national vote and will therefore not have any seats in parliament. It is however worth noting that the BSW’s popularity was also extremely uneven across the country and another example of geographical division. While it tanked nationally, its anti-migration, “anti-woke” and pro-welfare policies, mixed with its criticism of support for Ukraine, was a more popular offering in the east with results around the 10% mark, double the national average.

    What now for Europe?

    The SPD has claimed it will not enter government at any price. It has hinted it will put any coalition proposals to a vote among party members as a way of trying to exercise leverage over Merz. But, in truth, the party has nowhere else to go. There is no alternative to a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition apart from early elections or a fundamental rethink of the former’s approach to the AfD. Neither is an attractive prospect.

    All parties are also acutely aware of the tremendous pressure from other European countries for Germany to get its act together in the context of US president Trump’s assertiveness and the need to support Ukraine. But there are huge challenges to address on the domestic front. Merz has pledged tax cuts and higher defence expenditure, but there is no clarity at all how these will be paid for. Drastic reductions in welfare and other social expenditure would likely be a “no go” area for the SPD. An option might be to loosen Germany’s “debt brake” – constitutional restrictions on government borrowing. This is something Merz has been reluctant to do, but he has hinted he might consider it in the aftermath of the vote. This fundamental reform would need a two-thirds majority in both chambers of parliament, and if extra funds were only for defence, it is possible the Left and the AfD would combine to defeat it.

    So Germany’s election gives us a paradox: in some ways the outcome is rather familiar, with an old-school Christian democrat leading a coalition with the SPD, another party with a long track record in government – and indeed with some prospect of German leadership in Europe. But it is also a deeply uncertain result. Germany is a country facing huge challenges: sluggish growth, war in Europe and a US president questioning key tenets of the post-war transatlantic relationship. It’s not clear how to put together a governing coalition that can agree on how to face these challenges, and which can satisfy a starkly divided electorate. Turbulent times, in the country and across the continent, may well be ahead.

    Ed Turner receives funding from the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation.

    ref. German election: the results explained as Friedrich Merz comes out swinging for Europe – https://theconversation.com/german-election-the-results-explained-as-friedrich-merz-comes-out-swinging-for-europe-250690

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Entrepreneurship as a way out of poverty? Study in rural Kenya shows why it doesn’t always work

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Ralph Hamann, Professor, University of Cape Town

    International development agencies and non-governmental organisations often seek to advance community development by fostering entrepreneurship. The premise is that poor people can enhance their household incomes by establishing small businesses or by adding value to natural resources.

    Such programmes commonly include training and the provision of loans to enable micro-entrepreneurs to get started. But these interventions aren’t straightforward and often fail to achieve their objectives.

    Prior research has pointed to the fundamental economic challenges of entrepreneurship in the context of poverty. Cultural and institutional factors also play a role. Researchers have argued, for instance, that cultural norms of collectivism shape how entrepreneurs define themselves. They are likely to prioritise their roles as mentors or community safety net. This constrains their ability to innovate and grow their businesses.

    We wanted to explore an entrepreneurship-focused intervention in more detail. Specifically, why do some people seem more inclined than others to adopt these new behaviours?

    In a recent paper we set out our findings based on a study we conducted with 25 participants in northern Kenya. We built on our combined interests in entrepreneurship in resource-constrained environments, identity theory, and community development. We found that programme participants responded to the intervention in very different ways, and that religion helped explain these differences.

    Our findings have implications for interventions promoting entrepreneurship as a means to reduce poverty. First, such interventions can create profound identity tensions for participants and so their proponents need to take into account local cultures much more than is commonly the case. Second, entrepreneurship-focused interventions can change participants’ behaviours in ways that potentially disadvantage the poorest community members, leading to greater inequality at the community level.

    On the ground

    The development intervention we examined was aimed at fostering entrepreneurship in extremely poor pastoralist communities. The programme built on a small government cash transfer and put recipients into savings groups of up to 30 people. Participants were encouraged to start small businesses in these group discussions. They also received training in life skills and basic financial and business skills, such as the concept of profit and how to buy and sell goods.

    We found that over the five-year period of our study, an increasing number of pastoralists began engaging in businesses involving the sale of livestock, beadwork, sugar, tea leaves, washing powder and other necessities. But we discovered that these new business-oriented behaviours created profound tensions for the participants, and participants responded in different ways.

    The source of these tensions was in how individuals defined themselves within the local culture.

    The collectivist culture in these communities involved norms such as nkanyit (loosely translated, respect), which meant that people should share their belongings with others. But the training and the credit repayment requirements associated with the intervention made this problematic.

    To make profits and repay loans, the programme participants had to deny other community members’ requests for handouts or loans. This contravened local norms and expectations. It also created the fear that community members might curse the entrepreneur or her or his family.

    One participant explained:

    Business is different from what we were doing; business is not to give credits and also not to just give things to people… but people can curse you {if you say no}.

    Yet participants responded to these tensions in different ways. Some (about one-third of our research participants) gave in to the existing expectations and the need to avoid curses. As a result, they gave handouts to community members and often this led to their business languishing or collapsing. One participant noted:

    When I have food {business goods} in the house, I can’t tell people that I don’t have anything, and they know that I do. I just give some to avoid {curses}.“

    Others, however, continued with the new business activities despite the threat of curses. We discovered that a key factor explaining this was religion.

    Christians believed that their faith would protect them from curses. For some this occurred from the beginning. Others, fearful of curses early on, came to believe that curses would not apply in the context of the businesses that they wanted to keep running.

    For instance, one participant argued:

    Don’t give to people because of the fear of curses, just say no and pray for protection from the curses because God is great.

    Implications

    We highlight the importance of people’s social identities – specifically religious identities – in explaining why some participants are more likely to adopt capitalist behaviours (such as borrowing money to invest in business, or charging consumers interest on loans) than others.

    Organisations delivering entrepreneurship interventions and education in contexts of extreme poverty need to be aware of what identities they are encouraging participants to construct, either directly or indirectly through training and mentorship, and even through the questions that they ask participants.

    They need to be careful about creating tensions between existing cultural norms and the new concepts and behaviours they are introducing.

    More broadly, there may also be unintended negative consequences at the community level. Among the research participants in our study that adopted the entrepreneur role, this was linked to a diminished willingness to support poor community members. So, even if participants in the programme benefit through higher incomes, their entrepreneurial behaviours reduce traditional habits of giving to the needy. This could increase hardships for the very poor and create greater inequalities.

    This article is co-authored by Jody Delichte, and it is based on her PhD research at the University of Cape Town Graduate School of Business. Jody currently works as an international development and culture consultant. We are grateful to Jeremy Upane for his translation support in the field.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Entrepreneurship as a way out of poverty? Study in rural Kenya shows why it doesn’t always work – https://theconversation.com/entrepreneurship-as-a-way-out-of-poverty-study-in-rural-kenya-shows-why-it-doesnt-always-work-246700

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Africa relies too heavily on foreign aid for health – 4 ways to fix this

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Francisca Mutapi, Professor in Global Health Infection and Immunity. and co-Director of the Global Health Academy, University of Edinburgh

    There’s been a global trend in the reduction of aid to Africa since 2018. Donors are shifting their funding priorities in response to domestic and international agendas. Germany, France and Norway, for instance, have all reduced their aid to Africa in the past five years. And, in 2020, the UK government reduced its Overseas Development Aid from 0.7% of gross national income to 0.5%.

    Many health services across the African continent rely heavily on overseas aid to provide essential care. International funding supports everything from vaccines and HIV treatment to maternal health programmes.

    Cuts to aid, particularly unilateral ones, can have widespread implications. For instance, about 72 million people missed out on treatment for neglected tropical diseases between 2021 and 2022 due to UK aid cuts.

    The freeze of US aid to Africa in January 2025 is the latest in this trend. It’s already having significant and wide-ranging impacts across the African continent. For example, vaccination campaigns for polio eradication and HIV/Aids treatment through the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (Pepfar) have been stopped. This puts millions of lives at risk. In South Africa alone, the cut of Pepfar’s US$400 million a year to HIV programmes risks patients defaulting on treatment, infection rates going up and eventually a rise in deaths.

    President Donald Trump’s actions have highlighted Africa’s reliance on foreign aid for health funding. I’m a global health expert who sits on various funding and advisory boards, including those of the World Health Organization (WHO), the UK government and boards of global resource mobilisation organisations. I am well aware of the competing funding priorities for international funders and have long advocated for local, sustainable health funding mechanisms.

    Long-term strategies to reduce aid dependency are critical. Breaking away from this current funding status requires concerted efforts building on proven best practice.




    Read more:
    How nonprofits abroad can fill gaps when the US government cuts off foreign aid


    Country-leadership and ownership

    African countries currently face the unique challenge of simultaneously dealing with high rates of communicable diseases, such as malaria and HIV/Aids, and rising levels of non-communicable diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.

    But Africa’s health systems are not sufficiently resourced. They’re not able to provide appropriate, accessible and affordable healthcare to address these challenges.

    African governments spend less than 10% of their GDP on health, amounting to capital expenditure of US$4.5 billion. This falls short of the estimated US$26 billion annual investment needed to meet evolving health needs.

    Aid goes towards filling this funding gap. For example, in 2021, half of sub-Saharan African countries relied on external financing, such as grants and loans, for more than one-third of their health expenditures.

    Foreign aid has helped. But it clearly leaves African countries vulnerable to the political mood swings among funders.

    It also leads to loss of self-determination in terms of health priorities as, ultimately, the funder determines the health priorities. This is one reason why many programmes in Africa focus on a single disease, such as HIV. This leads to poorly integrated health services. For instance health workers or services are channelled into managing a single disease.

    New, underutilised financing options

    The current trajectory of reduced aid to Africa is likely to continue. Global aid is being directed to other challenges, such as conflict and illegal immigration.

    The continent cannot continue on the same path while hoping for different outcomes. Africa needs to grow a range of immediately available domestic financing options. Many of these are underutilised and include:

    1.) Diversifying domestic resource mobilisation. This should include commodity taxation to fund health. For instance, tobacco taxes which are currently underutilised in Africa.

    Zimbabwe offers a successful example. It has bridged donor resource gaps through its 3% Aids levy (started in 1999). Imposed on both individual and corporate incomes, it funds domestic HIV/Aids prevention, care and treatment programmes.

    Nigeria’s another country that’s taken initiative, prioritising domestic budget allocation to health. It recently absorbed the 28,000 healthworkers formerly paid by USAid. This demonstrates that domestic health financing in Africa is possible.

    2.) More private-public partnerships. Formed between local and international philanthropies or institutions, these can bridge financing gaps.

    One successful example is the 2015 health service provision partnership between the Kenyan government and GE Healthcare. GE Healthcare provides radiography equipment and services which the government pays for over time. This allows the government to budget and plan healthcare expenditure over several years.

    3.) Promotion of regional integration to boost local production. This will reduce the need for aid-funded imported medical products.

    For instance, the African Union’s harmonised Africa Medicines Authority registration facility creates a single continental market for medicines. This supports local producers and exporters, by allowing them to operate on a larger scale. It also makes production and distribution more cost-effective. Finally, it reduces the reliance on imported medicines, strengthening Africa’s pharmaceutical industry.

    4.) Leverage development finance institutions. These are specialised financial organisations – such as the Africa Development Bank, African Export-Import Bank and the Development Bank of Southern Africa. They can provide capital and expertise to projects deemed too risky for traditional investors. This includes support for health financing for infrastructure development, private sector development for small and medium-sized enterprises and the regional integration.

    One transformative initiative is the AfricInvest investment platform. With support from development finance institutions in the US and Europe, AfricInvest has raised over US$100 million for health investment in Africa. It has funded at least 45 dialysis facilities in Africa, delivering over 130,000 dialysis sessions annually, primarily to remote and underserved communities all at affordable costs.

    A combination of these approaches at national, regional and continental level will accelerate Africa’s withdrawal from aid dependency.

    Francisca Mutapi receives funding from the Aspen Global Innovation Programme, Scottish Funding Council funding to the University of Edinburgh, Academy of Medical Sciences, British Academy and the Royal Society. Francisca Mutapi is the Deputy Director of the Tackling Infections to Benefit Africa (TIBA) Partnership and Deputy Board Chair of Uniting to Combat NTDS. She sits on the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) and WHO Africa Regional Director’s Scientific Advisory Groups.

    ref. Africa relies too heavily on foreign aid for health – 4 ways to fix this – https://theconversation.com/africa-relies-too-heavily-on-foreign-aid-for-health-4-ways-to-fix-this-249886

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: The anatomy of fight-ending blows and chokes in combat sports

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adam Taylor, Professor of Anatomy, Lancaster University

    The human body has evolved to shield its vital organs, from the brain’s hard skull and meninges to the ribs and sternum protecting the heart and lungs. Even abdominal structures are safeguarded by muscular layers. In contact sports, understanding these vulnerabilities can give competitors the edge, allowing them to take down an opponent with a knockout or submission.

    Head and neck

    In many sports, a blow to the head is a quick route to a knockout (KO). Strikes to the side of the head can lead to KOs — and sadly, sometimes death. These blows can rupture vital blood vessels around the brain, triggering rapid bleeding that causes instant symptoms or slowly compresses the brain, leading to a coma and eventual death.

    Blows to the chin are usually much more effective for an instant KO. They can generate significant force by rotational acceleration through the brain tissue. They may also result in “diffuse axonal injury”, where the force generated causes long nerves in the brain to stretch or tear.

    The neck is often exploited in mixed martial arts (MMA) and jiu-jitsu. The rear-naked choke is one of the more effective, taking 8.9 seconds to render an opponent unconscious. This choke cuts off blood flow to the brain through the two main carotid arteries, which each deliver up to 590ml of blood to the brain per minute.

    It takes just nine seconds to render someone unconscious with a rear naked choke.
    Marco Crupi/Shutterstock

    Unconsciousness from the heart stopping beating can occur in as little as eight seconds. Arteries running through the neck to the brain are also susceptible to direct trauma in combat sports, potentially leading to paralysis or even death.

    Nerves and bones

    The legs are a key target in combat sports, such as muay thai and MMA. Low kicks to the outside of the thigh and buttock area target the sciatic nerve – the largest nerve in the body. The sciatic nerve supplies muscles on the back of your leg and bottom of your foot.

    Although this nerve is rarely permanently injured in most sports, repeated trauma can cause numbness, weakness or paralysis of the muscles it supplies.

    Another target is a branch of the sciatic nerve called the common peroneal nerve. It sits underneath a bony bulge on the outside of your leg just below the knee. Repeated targeting of this nerve can result in the inability to stand because the foot drops and the person can’t sense its position or inability to move the affected foot.

    Because of the direction of kicks to this area, almost 60% of muay thai fighters report contracture (shortening) of their calf (gastrocnemius) muscle, in response to repeated trauma.

    Armbars and ankle locks are also rapid ways to bring things to an end. Armbars involve trapping the arm in such a way that the elbow is in the hyper-extended position, trying to force it beyond straight. On the back of the joint is a large bony bulge called the olecranon, which prevents over-extension.

    If an opponent doesn’t “tap out”, the joint cavity and tissues of the elbow sprain or tear or the radius or ulna break.

    Ankle locks are often described as one of the most painful locks. This is because, when done properly, it hyper-extends the ankle joint and compresses the achilles tendon, which is the largest and thickest tendon in the body and has many sensory receptors for pressure.

    This is further exacerbated because many of the nerves passing through the ankle have little or no protection from muscle or connective tissues and there are 11 ligaments that support the ankle, all now having excessive forces stretch through them.

    Abdomen

    Attacking the abdomen is common in combat sports as it’s an easier target to hit than the head. There are two blows to this area that can end a fight. Blows to the liver and to the spleen.

    The liver sits on the right, protected by the ribs. But hitting the body over or just below this area can send shock waves into the liver that result in instant crippling pain because of the large number of critical nerves that sit behind it. These nerves are responsible for important functions including monitoring organ status and blood vessel diameter.

    Some of these punches can result in death from internal bleeding. The liver receives a huge volume of blood: 25% of the heart’s output. Any significant injury can tear the liver, causing fatal blood loss.

    The left side can have similar consequences, tucked behind the lower ribs at the back on this side is the spleen, a soft and blood-filled organ which is often silently or subtly torn by blunt-force trauma, such as car accidents, contact sports or broken ribs.

    It often gives no or vague symptoms and can bleed slowly after the initial injury occurrence, resulting in collapse or death a few hours after the event.

    The heart

    Commotio cordis is a rare cause of sudden death, occurring most commonly in young male athletes who are struck in the chest. It occurs in the absence of visible heart damage.

    This trauma causes a fatal interruption to the electrical activity of the regular heartbeat. The reason that all chest blows don’t result in this outcome is because it is believed to have to happen at a specific part of the electrical conduction through the heart – called the T-wave, which usually accounts for about 1% of the heartbeat cycle time. The T-wave increases with exercise, which is why commotio cordis is usually seen in exercising young athletes.

    For commotio cordis to occur, the impact must generate roughly 50 joules of energy, which is roughly equivalent to a baseball travelling at about 40mph.

    The illegal stuff

    Most of the above blows are allowed in most combat sports. However, some things that occur during fights aren’t. Punching the back of the head – so-called rabbit punches are banned because they can snap the cervical vertebrae at the top of the neck and potentially the spinal cord, which can have significant lifelong injuries, or even death.

    Likewise, groin strikes are banned too, they can prevent people from having children and are incredibly painful because of the vast number of highly sensitive nerves that supply that area in men and women.

    While reading this may make you wince, it also brings a newfound respect for those athletes who train and repeatedly put themselves through a gruelling regime in these true contact sports.

    Adam Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The anatomy of fight-ending blows and chokes in combat sports – https://theconversation.com/the-anatomy-of-fight-ending-blows-and-chokes-in-combat-sports-248382

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: The quest to extend human life is both fascinating and fraught with moral peril

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Richard Gunderman, Chancellor’s Professor of Medicine, Liberal Arts, and Philanthropy, Indiana University

    Tech entrepreneur Bryan Johnson has made it his life’s mission to delay aging and death. Netflix

    Who wants to live forever?” Freddie Mercury mournfully asks in Queen’s 1986 song of the same name.

    The answer: Quite a few people – so much so that life extension has long been a cottage industry.

    As a physician and scholar in the medical humanities, I’ve found the quest to expand the human lifespan both fascinating and fraught with moral peril.

    During the 1970s and 80s, for example, The Merv Griffin Show featured one guest 32 times – life extension expert Durk Pearson, who generated more fan mail than any guest except Elizabeth Taylor. In 1982, he and his partner, Sandy Shaw, published the book “Life Extension: A Practical Scientific Approach,” which became a No. 1 New York Times bestseller and sold over 2 million copies. One specific recommendation involved taking choline and vitamin B5 in order to reduce cognitive decline, combat high blood pressure and reduce the buildup of toxic metabolic byproducts.

    Last year, Pearson died at 82, and Shaw died in 2022 at 79.

    The 1982 book by Durk Pearson and Sandy Shaw, ‘Life Extension: A Practical Scientific Approach,’ has sold millions of copies.
    Amazon

    No one can say for sure whether these life extension experts died sooner or later than they would have had they eschewed many of these supplements and instead simply exercised and ate a balanced diet. But I can say that they did not live much longer than many similarly well-off people in their cohort.

    Still, their dream of staying forever young is alive and well.

    Consider tech entrepreneur Bryan Johnson’s “Project Blueprint,” a life-extension effort that inspired the 2025 Netflix documentary “Don’t Die: The Man Who Wants to Live Forever.” His program has included building a home laboratory, taking more than 100 pills each day and undergoing blood plasma transfusions, at least one of which came from his son.

    And Johnson is not alone. Among the big names investing big bucks to prolong their lives are Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Google founders Sergei Brin and Larry Page, and Oracle’s Larry Ellison. One approach involves taking senolytics – drugs that target cells that may drive the aging process, though more research is needed to determine their safety and efficacy. Another is human growth hormone, which has long been touted as an anti-aging mechanism in ad campaigns that feature remarkably fit older people. (“How does this 69-year-old doctor have the body of a 30-year-old?” reads one web ad).

    These billionaires may reason that, because of their wealth, they have more to live for than ordinary folks. They may also share more prosaic motivations, such as a fear of growing old and dying.

    But underlying such desires is an equally important ethical – and, for some, spiritual – reality.

    Quality versus quantity

    Is it a good thing, morally speaking, to wish to live forever? Might there be aspects of aging and even death that are both good for the world and good for individuals?

    Cicero’s “On Aging” offers some insights. In fact, the ancient Roman statesman and philosopher noted that writing about it helped him to find peace with the vexations of growing old.

    In the text, Cicero outlines and responds to four common complaints about aging: It takes us away from managing our affairs, impairs bodily vigor, deprives us of sensual gratifications and brings us to the verge of death.

    To the charge that aging takes us away from managing our affairs, Cicero asks us to imagine a ship. Only the young climb the masts, run to and fro on the gangways, and bail the hold. But it is among the older and more experienced members of the crew that we find the captain who commands the ship. Rome’s supreme council was called the Senate, from the Latin for “elder,” and it is to those rich in years that we look most often for wisdom.

    Cicero was keen to distinguish between quantity and quality of life.
    Crisfotolux/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    As to whether aging impairs bodily vigor, Cicero claimed that strength and speed are less related to age than discipline. Many older people who take care of themselves are in better shape than the young, and he gives examples of people who maintained their vigor well into their later years. He argued that those who remain physically fit do a great deal to sustain their mental powers, a notion supported by modern science.

    Cicero reminds readers that these same pleasures of eating and drinking often lead people astray. Instead, people, as they age, can better appreciate the pleasures of mind and character. A great dinner becomes characterized less by what’s on the plate or the attractiveness of a dining partner than the quality of conversation and fellowship.

    While death remains an inevitable consequence of aging, Cicero distinguishes between quality and quantity of life. He writes that it is better to live well than to live long, and for those who are living well, death appears as natural as birth. Those who want to live forever have forgotten their place in the cosmos, which does not revolve around any single person or even species.

    Those of a more spiritual bent might find themselves drawn to the Scottish poet George MacDonald, who wrote: “Age is not all decay; it is the ripening, the swelling of the fresh life within, that withers and bursts the husk.”

    Embracing the circle of life

    What if the dreams of the life extension gurus were realized? Would the world be a better place?

    Would the extra good that a longer-lived Einstein could have accomplished be balanced or even exceeded by the harm of a Stalin who remained healthy and vigorous for decades beyond his death?

    At some point, preserving indefinitely the lives of those now living would mean less room for those who do not yet exist.

    Pearson and Shaw appeared on many other television programs in the 1970s and 1980s. During one such segment on “The Mike Douglas Show,” Pearson declared: “By the time you are 60, your immune function is perhaps one-fifth what it was when you were younger. Yet you can achieve a remarkable restoration simply by taking nutrients that you can get at a pharmacy or health food store.”

    For Pearson, life extension was a biomedical challenge, an effort more centered on engineering the self rather than the world.

    Despite making a living as life extension gurus, Durk Pearson, right, and Sandy Shaw didn’t live much longer than most Americans.

    Yet I would argue that the real challenge in human life is not to live longer, but to help others; adding extra years should be seen not as the goal but a byproduct of the pursuit of goodness.

    In the words of Susan B. Anthony: “The older I get, the greater power I seem to have to help the world; I am like a snowball – the further I am rolled, the more I gain.”

    Richard Gunderman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The quest to extend human life is both fascinating and fraught with moral peril – https://theconversation.com/the-quest-to-extend-human-life-is-both-fascinating-and-fraught-with-moral-peril-249430

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Rising house prices don’t just make it harder to become a homeowner – they also widen the racial wealth gap

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Joe LaBriola, Research Assistant Professor, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan

    Homeownership – long a cornerstone of the “the American dream” – is increasingly out of reach for the average American. Over the past four decades, U.S. house prices have risen by 75% in real terms, pushing the costs of homeownership for the typical first-time homebuyer to a record high. At the same time, these rising prices have significantly boosted the wealth of existing homeowners.

    As a sociologist who studies inequality in America through the lens of housing, I’ve spent the past few years looking into how rising house prices have affected the wealth gap between white and Black households, which has widened significantly over the past four decades. White families had about US$90,000 more wealth – in 2021 dollars – than their Black counterparts in 1984, an alarmingly wide gap. But by 2021, the gap had widened to almost $160,000.

    My recent peer-reviewed research, published in the journal Social Problems, found that the rise in house prices between 1984 and 2021 accounted for most of this widening gap. Using data from the University of Michigan’s Panel Study of Income Dynamics, which tracks a nationally representative group of American families over time, I explored how homeowners’ wealth trajectories would have differed if they hadn’t benefited from rising house prices.

    I found that housing market appreciation widened the median wealth gap between white and Black households by nearly $50,000 between 1984 and 2021. Given that home prices have continued to rise since 2021, it’s fair to assume that this gap has widened further over the past few years.

    Why a rising tide doesn’t lift all boats

    I also investigated why rising house prices widened the wealth gap by so much. The most important cause is the long-standing disparity in homeownership rates. White households had a homeownership rate of 74% at the end of 2021, compared with only 43% for Black households. As a result, they were much more likely to have benefited from rising home values, which directly increased their home equity.

    White homeowners also tend to own more expensive homes than Black homeowners. While this is a less important factor, it means that they saw greater absolute gains in home equity than Black homeowners from the same percentage rise in the housing market.

    However, I also found an interesting exception: Black homeowners benefited more from neighborhood-level housing market trends. One possible explanation is that the gentrification of Black neighborhoods in recent decades led to outsize housing market appreciation in these neighborhoods – which disproportionately boosted the home equity of existing Black homeowners.

    The impact of history – and ideas for the future

    I became interested in housing and wealth inequality when I attended graduate school in the San Francisco Bay Area, one of the least affordable housing markets in the world. Many homeowners who had bought their homes in the 1970s for tens of thousands of dollars were now sitting on millions of dollars in home equity. Meanwhile, buying a home in this area seemed out of reach for all but the highest-earning families, effectively locking renters out of the wealth-building effects of rising house prices.

    My curiosity about rising house prices led me to explore how they shape wealth inequality – not just between homeowners and renters, but also between racial groups. The more I read, the more I learned about the many legal, political and social barriers that have kept Black families from becoming homeowners.

    These include exclusionary zoning policies and racial covenants that locked Black families out of many neighborhoods, reduced access to mortgage lending in historically Black neighborhoods, and persistent hiring and workplace discrimination that have kept Black families from accumulating wealth.

    Addressing these inequities will require thoughtful policy solutions. As a sociologist studying these issues, I have some recommendations on contemporary policies that can increase access to homeownership for less affluent households. Given racial disparities in wealth, these policies would also help to reduce racial gaps in homeownership:

    • Reform local housing regulations: By easing restrictions on housing development, cities can help alleviate the housing shortage that’s helping to drive up home prices. Austin, Texas, is an example of a city that has successfully curbed rising home prices by dramatically increasing its housing construction. Lower house prices would then allow a greater range of families to own homes.

    • Implement land value taxes: Traditional property taxes can discourage residential development because landowners pay higher taxes after they develop their land. In contrast, land value taxes are only assessed on the value of the land, which encourages landowners to put their land to the most productive use. Over time, land value taxes would lead to greater residential development in areas that need it most, which would then reduce upward pressures on house prices.

    • Subsidize homeownership: While using federal funds to subsidize homeownership would come with the risk of inflating prices, this could help more low-income households enter and maintain homeownership and thereby benefit from future housing market appreciation.

    Future directions for research

    I am currently extending this work in several directions. In collaboration with Ohio State University sociologist Chinyere Agbai and Stone Center for Inequality Dynamics Student Associate Nils Neumann, I am examining how the home mortgage interest deduction has affected the wealth gap between white and Black households over time. Introduced in 1913, this deduction is one of the largest tax breaks available to American households, but Black households are much less likely than white households to benefit from it, in part due to lower rates of homeownership.

    Our preliminary findings suggest the home mortgage interest deduction has substantially widened the wealth gap between white and Black households over the past several decades.

    I’m also investigating the role of parental wealth in helping children buy homes in increasingly unaffordable housing markets. My findings suggest that young homebuyers in expensive areas come from much wealthier backgrounds and receive more financial assistance when buying their homes than first-time homebuyers in other neighborhoods. I also found that family help makes young adults substantially more likely to become first-time homeowners.

    If Americans want to work toward creating a more equitable society, understanding the connections between housing, wealth and racial inequality is an important place to start.

    In conducting this research, Joe LaBriola received support from the James M. and Cathleen D. Stone Center for Inequality Dynamics at the University of Michigan, the National Science Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the UC Berkeley Opportunity Lab, the Horowitz Foundation for Social Policy, and the UC Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies.

    ref. Rising house prices don’t just make it harder to become a homeowner – they also widen the racial wealth gap – https://theconversation.com/rising-house-prices-dont-just-make-it-harder-to-become-a-homeowner-they-also-widen-the-racial-wealth-gap-250020

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can animals have mental disabilities?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Rachel Blaser, Professor of Neuroscience, Cognition and Behavior, University of San Diego

    Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com.


    Are there any animals with mental disabilities? – Adria G.


    Max was a fun-loving Labrador retriever who enjoyed going for car rides and greeting clients at his owner’s office. But around age 16, Max suddenly started having accidents in the house and stopped sleeping well at night. He became irritable and seemed not to understand the words and commands he had long known.

    Max was showing symptoms of a disorder called cognitive dysfunction syndrome, which can affect cats and dogs as they age. In dogs, it looks very similar to Alzheimer’s disease, which causes memory loss and dementia in humans, usually as they grow older.

    I study how humans and other animals learn, and my research involves working with many different species, from bees to pigeons and crawfish. Part of my work involves paying attention to conditions that can affect mental health in animals.

    Sometimes genetic or developmental changes affect how the brain is built, which can lead to mental disabilities or learning differences. In other cases, animals may be exposed to scary or stressful situations that can cause mental health problems. Here are some examples:

    Many dogs become stressed during thunderstorms. Creating a comfortable, enclosed “safe” space without windows inside your house can help.

    Understanding animal genes

    Down syndrome is a common genetic condition that can slow down learning and thinking in humans. People born with Down syndrome may have a harder time learning new things, remembering information and making complicated decisions.

    Down syndrome is caused by changes to a chromosome – the strands in our cells that store our genes. Normally, people have 23 pairs of chromosomes; when someone is born with an extra copy of chromosome 21, it produces the effects of Down syndrome.

    Most animals can’t have Down syndrome, because their genes are organized into chromosomes differently than human genes. However, our closest relatives, including chimpanzees and orangutans, do have a similar organization of genes. Conditions very much like Down syndrome have been observed in these species.

    One example, Kanako, was a female chimpanzee born in a research facility in Japan. She had vision and heart problems caused by an extra chromosome. Scientists don’t know whether Kanako had trouble with learning, because her vision problems made that difficult to test. However, Kanako enjoyed socializing with other chimpanzees and lived a long life in a wildlife sanctuary.

    Wild chimpanzees are probably also sometimes born with genetic conditions like Down syndrome, but the effects make it difficult to survive in the wild, just like being born with a heart or a foot that doesn’t develop normally. Kanako was able to live a healthy life thanks to the help of her human caretakers and good veterinary care.

    Science historian Laurel Braitman explains how she worked to understand her dog’s mental health disorders, and how studying these problems in animals can offer insights for treating similar problems in humans.

    Coping with trauma and stress

    Animals that are born healthy can also develop mental health problems in response to conditions around them.

    For example, just as soldiers may develop post-traumatic stress disorder after experiencing a life-threatening situation, working military and police dogs can develop a similar condition. Dogs with canine PTSD may cling to their owners, startle at everyday noises, or frequently act panicky or fearful.

    Veterinarians can prescribe anti-anxiety medication to help these dogs stay calm during scary events, like fireworks or thunderstorms. Owners also can use behavioral treatments to reward the dogs for staying calm and relaxed around things that seem frightening.

    Most traumatic events, like earthquakes or car accidents, can’t be predicted in advance. However, in some cases, such as capturing and restraining a wild animal to relocate it, workers use tranquilizers or sedatives to make the animal sleepy, or cover its eyes and ears to reduce fear and prevent long-lasting problems.

    Another common cause of mental health problems in animals is daily stress. Animals held in captivity at zoos, farms or research labs may experience stress from sources such as traffic noises, uncomfortable temperatures or not being able to engage in certain natural behaviors.

    Animals have many signature behaviors: Penguins swim, meerkats dig, baboons socialize and chickens take dust baths. When animals can’t do important behaviors, they may experience stress and mental problems.

    To keep this from happening, zookeepers and animal caretakers provide environmental enrichment – objects, structures and activities that stimulate the animals’ minds and help keep them from getting bored.

    An African penguin at the Maryland Zoo snatches at a knotted fire hose. Giving penguins novel objects to explore is one way to enriching their lives in captivity.
    Pacific Southwest Forest Service, USDA, CC BY

    Supporting your pet

    Sometimes it’s easy to see when animals are stressed or anxious. They may pace back and forth, spend their days in hiding or be unusually aggressive. Getting sick frequently or losing weight can also be a sign of poor mental health. Certain hormones, called corticosteroids, can be measured from a poop sample to provide clues about whether an animal is under too much stress.

    Even pets in loving homes can experience mental health problems. Some dogs struggle with separation anxiety – extreme fear of being left alone by their owner. Lack of mental or physical activity can also produce anxiety symptoms.

    Whether it means taking your dog to the dog park to run and socialize, or building puzzles that hide treats for your parakeet to find, keeping animals busy is good for them. In more serious cases, veterinarians can prescribe medication or behavioral treatments to help your pet feel better.

    Humans can use science to understand the many conditions that affect mental health in animals and find treatments to help them. We also can show compassion and care for others – whether human or animal – who experience mental problems.


    Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

    And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

    Rachel Blaser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Can animals have mental disabilities? – https://theconversation.com/can-animals-have-mental-disabilities-247082

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Roman society integrated people who altered their bodies and defied gender norms

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Tom Sapsford, Assistant professor of Classical Studies, Boston College

    A relief showing a gallus making sacrifices to the goddess Cybele and Attis. Sailko via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

    A few weeks into his second term, President Donald Trump signed two executive orders restricting the rights of trans workers in the federal government. The first was a renewal of the ban on transgender people joining the U.S. military – initially signed in 2017 and later repealed by President Joe Biden in 2021. The second was a more sweeping memo that recognizes only two sexes in federal records and policies.

    In the ancient Roman world, which I study, biological sex and gender expression did not always line up as neatly as the president is demanding to see in today’s government.

    In antiquity, there were masculine women, feminine men and people who altered their bodies to match their gender expression more closely. In particular, two figures – the cinaedus and the gallus – provide examples of men whose effeminate behavior and modified anatomies were striking yet still integrated into Roman society.

    The cinaedus and the commander in chief

    In ancient Rome, some men who did not fit neatly within gender categories were called “cinaedi.” They were usually adult males singled out for their extreme effeminacy and nonnormative sexual desires.

    The cinaedus was already a recognizable figure in ancient Greece and was first mentioned in the fourth century B.C. by Plato. He says little more than that a cinaedus’ life was terrible, base and miserable. Later Roman authors provide more detail.

    Martial, a Roman poet writing in the first century A.D., for instance, describes a cinaedus’ dysfunctional penis as like a “soggy leather strap” in one epigram. In the same century, the Roman novelist Petronius has a cinaedus suggest that both he and his fellows have had their genitals removed.

    In a fable by Phaedrus, also written in the first century A.D., a barbarian is threatening the troops of the military leader, Pompey the Great. All are afraid to challenge this fierce opponent until a “cinaedus” volunteers to fight.

    The cinaedus is described as a soldier of great size but with a cracked voice and mincing walk. After pleading permission in a stereotypically lisping manner from Pompey the Great, his commander in chief, the cinaedus steps into battle. He quickly severs the barbarian’s head and, with army agog, is summarily rewarded by Pompey.

    In Phaedrus’ fable, the cinaedus is untrustworthy. He is described as having stolen valuables from Pompey early on in the tale and then later swears on oath that he hasn’t.

    Yet the moral of Phaedrus’ fable of the soldier-cinaedus is that such deceptive appearances and actions might actually be strategically successful in military matters. The cinaedus has an edge over Pompey’s other soldiers precisely due to his disarming effeminacy. In the tale, this doesn’t at all diminish his skills as a lethal fighter. Rather, the cinaedus’ effeminacy combined with his martial valor ultimately lead to the barbarian’s defeat.

    Trans priests and the safety of the Roman state

    The galli, another group that lived in the heart of the city of Rome, also blurred gender roles. They were males who had castrated their genitalia in dedication to the Great Mother goddess Cybele, who was their protector.

    As reported by several ancient sources, including Cicero and Livy, in 204 B.C. the Roman state consulted a set of prophetic scrolls called the Sibylline Oracles on how best to respond to the pressures it faced as a result of the Second Punic War – Rome’s prolonged conflict with Carthage and its fierce military general, Hannibal.

    The oracles’ answer – and Rome’s subsequent action – was to import a strange and foreign religious order from Asia Minor into the heart of Rome, where it would remain for the next several hundred years.

    The temple of Cybele was located on the Palatine Hill, next to several important shrines, monuments and later even the residence of the Emperor Augustus. As the poet Ovid tells us, each year during Cybele’s festival the galli would proceed through the streets of Rome carrying a statue of the goddess, while ululating wildly in time with the sound of wailing pipes, banging drums and crashing cymbals.

    More so than the figure of the cinaedus, ancient literary sources present the galli’s gender difference similarly to modern-day trans women, often using feminine pronouns when describing them.

    For instance, the poet Catullus details the origin story of the galli’s founder figure, Attis, who was Cybele’s mythical consort and chief priest. Notably, Catullus switches from using masculine adjectives to feminine ones at the very moment of Attis’ self-castration.

    Attis.

    Similarly, in his novel, “The Golden Ass,” the second century A.D. writer Apuleius has one gallus address his fellow devotees as “girls.”

    While several ancient sources mock these figures for their gender-nonconforming appearance and behaviors, it is nevertheless evident that the galli held a sacred place within the Roman state. They were viewed as being important to Rome’s continued safety and prominence.

    For example, Plutarch in his “Life of Marius” relates that a priest of the Great Mother came to Rome in 103 B.C. to convey an oracle that the Romans would be triumphant in war. Though believed by the Senate, this priest, Bataces, was mocked mercilessly in the plebian assembly. However, when the individual who had insulted Bataces swiftly died of a terrible fever, the plebians too gave this oracle and the goddess’s prophetic powers their backing.

    Today’s trans issues

    Behind Trump’s executive orders are two assertions: first, that transgender identity is a form of ideology: a modern invention created to justify deviance from one’s sex as assigned at birth; second, that transgender identity is both a form of disease and of dishonesty.

    The reissued military ban doubles down on the perceived dishonesty of trans folk, contrasting it with the ideals and principles needed for combat. The order states that the “adoption of a gender identity inconsistent with an individual’s sex conflicts with a soldier’s commitment to an honorable, truthful, and disciplined lifestyle.”

    Taking a long view of gender diversity across millennia has shown me that many individuals in antiquity certainly lived lives outside of the clear-cut formula that the Trump administration has stated, namely that “women are biologically female and men are biologically male.”

    Gender diversity is not simply a late 20th- or early 21st-century phenomenon. However, the fear that gender-diverse people are diseased and devious likewise arises in several ancient sources. In the classical world, these fears seem limited to the realms of satire and fantasy; in our current time, we are seeing these fears being harnessed for government policy.

    This article incorporates material from a story originally published on Aug. 1, 2017.

    Tom Sapsford is affiliated with the Lambda Classical Caucus.

    ref. How Roman society integrated people who altered their bodies and defied gender norms – https://theconversation.com/how-roman-society-integrated-people-who-altered-their-bodies-and-defied-gender-norms-248726

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why including people with disabilities in the workforce and higher education benefits everyone

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Lauren Shallish, Associate Professor of Disability Studies in Education, Rutgers University – Newark

    The employment rate for people with disabilities is about half that of nondisabled people. Johner Images via Getty Images

    Whether it’s declaring that blindness prevents government employees from doing their jobs or suggesting that hiring workers with intellectual disabilities contributed to Federal Aviation Administration safety lapses, the Trump administration has repeatedly questioned whether people with disabilities belong in the workplace.

    This stance reflects widespread stigma and misconceptions about what people with disabilities can and do accomplish.

    Negative stereotypes and exclusionary practices persist despite the fact that people with disabilities are the largest minority group in the United States, representing nearly 30% of the population. Whether or not you identify as disabled, most people live or work in close proximity to others with a disability.

    For years I have researched how people with disabilities have been kept out of efforts to guarantee equal access for everybody, particularly in higher education. This exclusion is often due to unfounded beliefs about capacity, intellect and merit, and the false premise that disability inclusion requires lowering standards.

    However, studies demonstrate that including people with disabilities is good for everyone, not just disabled people. Schools and workplaces are more collaborative and responsive when people with disabilities are included at all levels of the organization. In other words, disability inclusion isn’t about charity; it’s about making organizations work better.

    The Americans with Disabilities Act, enacted in 1990, provides legal protections for people with disabilities in the workplace.
    kyotokushige/DigitalVision via Getty Images

    Rolling back protections

    President Donald Trump issued executive orders the day he took office for a second time that aimed at ending government and private-sector efforts to make U.S. workplaces and schools more diverse, equitable and inclusive. In addition to affecting LGBTQ+ communities and people of color, these measures could erode years of progress toward protecting the rights of people with disabilities to earn a living.

    Between 40 million and 80 million Americans identify as disabled. Even the higher end of this range underestimates the actual number of people with disabilities, because some individuals choose not to identify that way or even realize they qualify as such. That includes people with impairments from chemical and pesticide exposure, as well as many older people and those who are living with HIV and AIDS, to name some examples.

    Only 15% of people with disabilities are born with their impairment, so most individuals become disabled over their lifetime.

    Tracing historical precedents

    Blaming failures on people with disabilities and people of color echoes the harms embedded in eugenics, an attempt to scientifically prove genetic inferiority of disabled, LGBTQ+ Indigenous and Black people.

    Eugenics led to the institutionalization and forced sterilization of, and the coercive experimentation on, people with disabilities, immigrants and people of color across the U.S. Even the Supreme Court endorsed the concept in the early 20th century.

    These studies began to fade after World War II, but their legacy persists. Even today, forced sterilization continues to be lawful in U.S jurisdictions in 31 states and in Washington.

    Due to widespread activism and the advent of new legal protections, many states finally dismantled their eugenic policies in the late 1970s. But eugenics-era experiments provided foundations for contemporary medical research, standardized testing and segregated school placements.

    People with disabilities have far-reaching legal guarantees of civil rights and access today due to the Americans with Disabilities Act. The statute, which was enacted in 1990 and strengthened in 2008, provided protections in the workplace, educational settings, transportation and places of recreation and commerce, among others. It also guarded against negative perceptions of disability.

    For example, if an employer perceived someone as disabled and denied them consideration in the hiring process because of that, the candidate would be protected from discrimination under the ADA – whether or not they had a disability.

    While these advances are significant, many people with disabilities still do not have access to their basic civil rights. This is particularly true of Black people with disabilities, as they are disproportionately pushed out of school, disciplined more harshly, targeted for incarceration and marginalized in disability representation and research.

    Accommodations for people with disabilities enable them to contribute unique talents to classrooms and workplaces.
    Halfpoint Images via Getty Images

    Gaining workplace accommodations

    Critics of inclusion efforts sometimes wrongly argue that employing people with disabilities is too costly due to the accommodations they may require. But the Job Accommodation Network in the Department of Labor’s Office of Disability Employment Policy found in 2023 that nearly 60% of these accommodations cost nothing.

    What’s more, many tax incentives are available to cover these costs.

    Disability civil rights law does not mandate hiring people who are not qualified or lowering standards to include the disabled. The law requires that candidates meet the “essential functions” of the job in order to be hired.

    According to a 2024 Labor Department report, the employment rate for working-age people with disabilities was 38% compared with 75% for nondisabled people. Though there are countless reasons for this disparity, many people with disabilities can and want to work, but employers don’t give them the opportunity.

    Providing benefits for everyone

    Many accommodations designed for people with disabilities also benefit others.

    Captioning on videos and movies was originally meant to benefit the deaf community, but it also helps multilingual speakers and people who simply are trying to follow the dialogue. Similarly, visual or written instructions assist people with depression, Down syndrome or attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, but they can also make tasks more accessible for everyone, along with breaking assignments into smaller components.

    Sensory break rooms benefit people with autism and post-traumatic stress disorder, while also providing a reprieve in a noisy work environment and minimizing distractions. Remote work options can make it easier for people with chronic illnesses to be employed, and they similarly benefit others who may have caregiving responsibilities – helping attract and retain talented employees. Text-to-speech software provides people with cerebral palsy and nonspeaking individuals with options for communication, similar to options that many people already use on their phones.

    A large body of research demonstrates the broad benefits of making jobs and schools more accessible to people with disabilities, which is ultimately an advantage for everyone.

    Studies on diversity in educational and workplace settings also demonstrate positive outcomes. In a study of 10 public universities, researchers found that students who reported positive, informal interactions with diverse peers had higher scores on measures of more complex thinking, a concern for the public good and an interest in poverty issues, and were more likely to vote and develop strong leadership skills.

    In a national survey of human resources managers conducted in 2019, 92% of the respondents who were aware that one or more of their employees had a disability said those individuals performed the same or better than their peers who did not.

    Research published by the Harvard Business Review found many advantages to hiring people with disabilities.

    For one thing, people with disabilities can have unique insights that contribute to the workplace culture. The presence of employees with disabilities can make the environment of entire companies and organizations more collaborative. Earning a reputation for inclusiveness and social responsibility can improve customer relations and can give businesses an edge when they seek funding and recruit talented new employees.

    Ultimately, I believe it’s important to create conditions where anyone can thrive, including people with disabilities. Doing so benefits everyone.

    Lauren Shallish does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Why including people with disabilities in the workforce and higher education benefits everyone – https://theconversation.com/why-including-people-with-disabilities-in-the-workforce-and-higher-education-benefits-everyone-249676

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: As Pennsylvania inches toward legalizing recreational cannabis, lawmakers propose selling it in state-owned dispensaries similar to state liquor stores

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Daniel J. Mallinson, Associate Professor of Public Policy and Administration, Penn State

    Advocates believe Pennsylvania and Hawaii may be the next fronts in recreational cannabis legalization. Spencer Platt/Getty Images

    After a long, largely successful march over 25 years to liberalize cannabis laws in the United States, the movement had a tough election in 2024.

    Legalization ballot measures failed in Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota. In Arkansas, votes on legalization were not even counted due to litigation over the measure. The only successful measures – passed in Nebraska – are also on hold due to litigation.

    Federally, many of President Donald Trump’s nominees in key posts at the Department of Health and Human Services, Department of Justice and Drug Enforcement Administration have made strong anti-cannabis statements. This may not bode well for the effort started by President Joe Biden to reschedule marijuana as a less dangerous drug.

    So, what is the future of cannabis legalization in the United States?

    As political scientist Lee Hannah and I argued in our 2024 book “Green Rush,” the states are central to the story of cannabis legalization in the United States.

    In fact, advocates are looking to places such as Pennsylvania and Hawaii in 2025 as the next fronts in recreational legalization.

    Let’s zoom in on Pennsylvania.

    Pennsylvania is a middling adopter

    Pennsylvania is following about the same trajectory with adult-use recreational legalization as it did with medical marijuana. It is not an innovator but also not a laggard.

    When Pennsylvania adopted medical marijuana in 2016, 23 states had already done so.

    The political environment is very different in 2025 than 2016, however, which raises the difficulty of passing a bill that makes recreational marijuana use legal, even in a state where legalization is popular.

    In 2016, Pennsylvania’s General Assembly was controlled completely by Republicans, and the governor was a Democrat. Now, the Democrats hold a single-seat majority in the House that erodes every time there is a vacancy. Republicans still control the Senate, and Democrat Josh Shapiro is the governor.

    A major key to medical cannabis legalization passing in 2016 was Republican state Sen. Mike Folmer’s advocacy within his caucus. Without a Republican champion, it may not have passed.

    For legalization of recreational cannabis, state Sen. Dan Laughlin has been the clear Republican champion. He has been working with Democratic state Sen. Sharif Street of Philadelphia to build support and find a policy design that works for Republicans and Democrats.

    But Republican Senate leadership has remained cool to the idea. Senate President Pro Tempore Kim Ward is not a supporter and has been pushing the governor to get more involved.

    “If (Shapiro) wants something done, he needs to lead on it,” Ward said. “He can’t throw an idea out there, which he did last year, and say, ‘Let the legislature figure it out, I’ll sign it.’”

    Expected revenues likely to fall short

    For his part, Shapiro has included projected revenues from legalization in his budget proposals since assuming office in 2023.

    This year, he projected an even greater first-year haul – US$536 million – if recreational cannabis is legalized. This estimate includes revenue from initial licensing fees.

    The assumptions going into these projections aren’t clear. And while cannabis legalization has been lucrative for state revenues in other places, revenues often fall short of what was projected during legalization debates.

    Importantly, Pennsylvania is now nearly surrounded by states with legal recreational cannabis. That includes New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Ohio, but not West Virginia.

    It is no secret that, in the words of Shapiro, “Pennsylvanians who want to buy cannabis are just driving across the border to one of our neighbors.”

    Research on how ideas and policies spread makes clear the intense pressure that comes as a state’s neighbors adopt a policy, especially one with major economic ramifications.

    But pressure does not determine the result. The internal politics of a state can still block a policy from being adopted.

    State-owned cannabis stores

    The biggest challenge for legalization in Pennsylvania will be navigating those internal political dynamics – especially finding a compromise that can be supported by both Democrats and Republicans.

    Public safety is often raised as a concern during legalization debates. To counter this point, Democrats in the state House have proposed selling legal cannabis in state-owned stores, just like how liquor and some wine is sold in Pennsylvania now.

    The Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board operates nearly 600 Fine Wine & Good Spirits stores across the state.
    Paul Weaver/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

    No other states do this, and it puts the state on potentially very slippery ground with the federal government, which still considers cannabis to be completely prohibited. State-run stores mean that states are providing a banned substance directly to citizens. That is a significant step further than creating an infrastructure to regulate private entities that are breaking federal law.

    Moreover, there has been a decades-long effort in Pennsylvania by conservatives to privatize the state liquor stores. It seems odd that Republicans would support using that model to create a recreational cannabis market.

    If privately owned but government-regulated dispensaries are used, there is significant debate among cannabis policy experts as to whether it is wise to give existing medical dispensaries first dibs on recreational licenses. Doing so allows states to open their recreational programs very quickly.

    The drawback, however, is that large, multistate operators such as Trulieve, which runs dispensaries in several states, are positioned to gain a significant share of the market. This is why the industry supports the approach to initial licensing. Legalization advocates such as Shaleen Title, however, are very concerned about the development of a “Big Cannabis” that resembles Big Tobacco, with oligopoly control by a few large companies.

    Social equity is another challenge facing recreational legalization that was not a major factor in medical. In short, social equity is about ensuring members of marginalized communities that were previously targets of the War on Drugs somehow benefit from the cannabis industry now that it is legal. While the issue was central to recreational legalization debates in neighboring New York and New Jersey, there’s been little public discussion of this particular facet of Pennsylvania’s proposed legalization plans.

    While a middling adopter of medical cannabis, Pennsylvania’s program also had important innovations in research and social equity that influenced legislators in other states. Whatever happens in the commonwealth around recreational cannabis may well do so again, especially as fewer states have the option of adopting recreational cannabis via the ballot.

    Finding a legislative solution to these thorny issues in a divided government could thus push legalization forward. Or the recent winds against legalization could stall the effort in Pennsylvania, at least for now.

    Read more of our stories about Philadelphia and Pennsylvania.

    Daniel J. Mallinson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. As Pennsylvania inches toward legalizing recreational cannabis, lawmakers propose selling it in state-owned dispensaries similar to state liquor stores – https://theconversation.com/as-pennsylvania-inches-toward-legalizing-recreational-cannabis-lawmakers-propose-selling-it-in-state-owned-dispensaries-similar-to-state-liquor-stores-250368

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: 3 ways Trump is acting like a king and bypassing the Constitution’s checks and balances on presidential authority

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By David Lopez, University Professor of Law, Rutgers University – Newark

    Donald Trump’s efforts to expand presidential power defy the Constitutional separation of powers. zimmytws/iStock via Getty Images

    I learned basic civics in my public school. But mostly, because it was more interesting, I also learned civics after school watching the animated series “Schoolhouse Rock,” often with my abuela – my grandmother – who took care of me.

    Back then, “Schoolhouse Rock” had a wonderful episode, “Three Ring Government.” In singing narration, the characters explained “about the government, and how it’s arranged, divided in three, like a three-ring circus.”

    Those three circles, all the same size, kept each other honest. For many in my generation, those three rings were our introduction to the idea of the checks and balances built into the U.S. government. They include the separation of powers among the legislative, judicial and executive branches.

    In short, we learned, Congress passes the laws, the president administers the laws, and the courts interpret the laws.

    This elegant but simple system stood in contrast to the nearly unshackled power of the British king, who ruled over the American colonies before independence. And it provided representation for “We the People,” because we vote for members of Congress.

    During its first month, the second Trump administration has pushed a new balance of these powers, granting the president expansive and far-reaching authority. These actions imperil the power of elected lawmakers in the House and Senate to pass legislation, oversee the federal government and exercise spending authority.

    Most U.S. legal scholars regarded these issues as fairly settled. Trump’s recent actions, however, have unsettled this understanding.

    Here are three examples of how the balance of power is being upset by Trump and his administration:

    The explanation of the separation of powers in the U.S. government in “Schoolhouse Rock.”

    Independent agencies

    On Jan. 28, 2025, President Donald Trump fired Gwynne Wilcox, a Democratic member of the National Labor Relations Board, three years before the end of her five-year term.

    The National Labor Relations Board, or NLRB, established in New Deal legislation in 1935, was designed to ensure industrial peace by protecting the rights of workers to organize and bargain collectively. Congress created the board as a bipartisan body to resolve allegations of unfair labor practices brought by workers or management.

    By design, the board operated independently from Cabinet-level departments. Congress sought to preserve this independence by ensuring that board members serve a fixed term and could be removed only for “neglect of duty or malfeasance in office, but for no other cause.”

    This independent structure – shared by other agencies such as the Securities Exchange Commission, the Federal Trade Commission and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission – aims to provide regulatory consistency, slightly removed from the political passions of the day.

    Some legal scholars have been percolating an argument that the Constitution requires the Supreme Court to limit those agencies’ Congressionally endowed independence in favor of more expansive presidential authority, even though the court decided this issue unanimously in 1935.

    Wilcox is suing the administration for its apparent violation of Congress’ statutory language by firing her.

    “Ms. Wilcox is the first Black woman to serve on the Board, the first Black woman to serve as its Chair, and – if the President’s action is allowed to stand – will also be the first member to be removed from office since the Board’s inception in 1935,” the lawsuit states.

    If this case makes it to the Supreme Court, and the court takes the unusual step of reversing itself, its ruling would imperil the independent structure, not just of this agency but of other agencies too.

    Asylum laws

    Congress created a comprehensive system of laws for processing the asylum claims of people who say they are fleeing persecution or torture to seek protection in the U.S.

    These laws allow applicants to show likelihood of harm if they could not stay in the U.S. They were originally adopted in response to humanitarian crises, including when Jews fleeing Nazi Germany were turned away by the U.S., among other countries.

    As part of Trump’s declaration, on his first day in back in office, that immigration is both a “national immigration emergency” and an “invasion” under Article IV, Section 4 of the Constitution, the president essentially shut down the asylum process at U.S. ports of entry. His proclamation canceled the appointments of those who had waited to pursue their claim under existing asylum procedures.

    In doing so, Trump ignored critical portions of laws passed by Congress. This move places asylum seekers already in the U.S. in danger of being deported to the countries where they say they face life-threatening persecution or torture.

    Congressional spending authority

    Protesters near the White House oppose President Donald Trump’s freeze on federal grants and loans on Jan. 28, 2025.
    Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

    Under the Constitution, Congress has the power to set spending amounts and priorities for the federal government. By law, the executive branch cannot spend what has not been appropriated – meaning approved by Congress – nor can it stop that spending.

    Shortly following the inauguration, however, Trump’s Office of Management and Budget ordered a pause of federal grants and loans to organizations and programs ranging from Head Start to farm subsidies.

    Almost immediately, several states, concerned about the loss of essential federal services, filed a lawsuit to halt the freeze. A federal court in Rhode Island sided with the plaintiffs and temporarily stayed the freeze.

    The judge rejected the Trump administration’s argument that it must “align Federal spending and action with the will of the American people as expressed through Presidential priorities,” calling it “constitutionally flawed.” And he concluded that the president could not act unilaterally under the Constitution.

    “Congress has not given the Executive limitless power to broadly and indefinitely pause all funds that it has expressly directed to specific recipients and purposes,” wrote the judge, John J. McConnell, Jr. “The Executive’s actions violate the separation of powers.”

    “Schoolhouse Rock” taught that one ring must respect the other coequal rings. What has happened under Trump is one ring expanding in size to swallow up much of another ring – that of Congress.

    ‘Kinglike’ powers?

    Several of the Trump administration’s recent actions appear designed to test the legal viability of an expansive, more “kinglike” view of presidential powers.

    Yet for the most part, Congress as an institution has mostly remained silent as the executive branch invades its sphere of authority.

    Instead, the courts have served as a check on his power by stalling, temporarily, more than a dozen of Trump’s presidential actions that surpass the executive powers permitted under various laws and the Constitution.

    Most of these stays are only temporary. They were issued based on the recognition that the immediate harm of unlawful presidential overreach would be difficult to roll back.

    In the end, the Supreme Court will likely decide the scope of presidential powers in the various contexts. If they rule in Trump’s favor, the U.S. government will become a one-ring circus run by a kinglike president – precisely what it was never meant to be.

    Gwynne Wilcox is a Rutgers Law grad and has spoken to our class.

    ref. 3 ways Trump is acting like a king and bypassing the Constitution’s checks and balances on presidential authority – https://theconversation.com/3-ways-trump-is-acting-like-a-king-and-bypassing-the-constitutions-checks-and-balances-on-presidential-authority-249347

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: The murder rate in Venezuela has fallen − but both Trump and Maduro are wrong about why

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Rebecca Hanson, Assistant Professor of Latin American Studies, Sociology and Criminology, University of Florida

    Members of government-backed militias take part in a march in Caracas, Venezuela, on Jan. 7, 2025. AP Photo/Matias Delacroix

    The body of former Venezuelan army officer Ronald Ojeda was found on Feb. 19, 2024, in a suitcase buried under 5 feet of concrete. Ojeda, accused by Venezuela of plotting against the government, had gone missing nine days earlier, when men dressed as police broke into his apartment in the Chilean capital of Santiago and dragged him away.

    Following a yearlong investigation, authorities in Chile have now pointed the finger at the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, claiming members carried out the assassination at the behest of that country’s president, Nicolás Maduro.

    It comes as the relationship between Maduro’s government and criminal gangs is under increased scrutiny, both among regional governments in Latin America and in the United States.

    Conservative media outlets in the U.S. and right-leaning groups such as the Heritage Foundation have accused Maduro of sending gang members into the U.S. to destabilize the country.

    President Donald Trump has even suggested that Maduro successfully reduced crime by exporting gang members to the U.S. “Crime is down in Venezuela by 67% because they’re taking their gangs and their criminals and depositing them very nicely into the United States,” he told supporters in April 2024.

    According to data from the Venezuelan Ministry of Health, shared with me by scholar of Venezuelan politics Dorothy Kronick, homicide rates have indeed come down in recent years. And this trend is confirmed by the Venezuelan Observatory of Violence.

    The fall in homicide rates has coincided with Maduro successfully consolidating his authoritarian rule in Venezuela. And explanations of the drop in crime tend to imply that it is the result of the government co-opting and controlling gangs. Some observers have even referred to Venezuela as a “narcostate,” suggesting that drug trafficking in the country is an organized venture between top officials and criminal groups.

    I have studied crime, violence and policing in Venezuela since 2011 and know that this narrative is at best oversimplistic, at worst outright mistruth. As I explore in my new book, “Policing the Revolution: The Transformation of Coercive Power and Venezuela’s Security Landscape During Chavismo,” the case of Venezuela is not one of government control over criminal groups. Rather, it is characterized by an unstable and volatile relationship between the government and multiple competing armed actors, including gangs and the police.

    Violent, but becoming less so

    Falling homicide rates should not mask the fact that Venezuela is still plagued by violence. Since the mid-2000s it has been ranked as one of the most violent countries in the world.

    Former President Hugo Chávez was never able to get a handle on crime, particularly violent crime, which increased exponentially under his government. The trend continued during Maduro’s first years in office after Chávez’s death in 2013.

    However, all available evidence suggests that Venezuela’s homicide rate has declined since reaching a peak in 2016 – by around 42%.

    But there’s no evidence this is because the government is “offshoring” criminals.

    Maduro’s own explanation for this decline portrays the government as handily controlling criminals by means of incredibly lethal police raids carried out between 2015 and 2019. In short, Maduro claims that the police have effectively “wiped out” criminal groups.

    Competing police forces …

    But rather than “wiping out” criminal organizations, the Maduro government has instead maintained volatile relationships with many armed groups, including gangs, nonstate paramilitary groups and even the country’s own police forces.

    These relationships have produced significant conflict and dysfunction within state institutions. This is clear when looking at institutions presumed to be synonymous with state control, such as the police.

    Chávez’s and Maduro’s governments put more police and soldiers in the streets. They created security institutions, such as the Policía Nacional Bolivariana, or Bolivarian National Police.

    However, rapid growth of the security apparatus, amid competing approaches, has generated more conflict than coordination.

    Police officers and police reformers I interviewed referred to state security policies and the changes they produced as akin to Frankenstein’s monster – an aberration rapidly outpacing the creator’s ability to control it.

    What they mean is the government had created new security institutions so quickly that it is unable to supervise and control them. As one former police officer and Chavista politician told me: “Our challenge now is how to manage the monster we created.”

    Members of the National Guard take part in an anti-gang security operation in Caracas on July 13, 2015.
    Federico Parra/AFP via Getty Images

    State policies have also generated significant distrust between the police and the government, and among different police forces.

    This distrust has even resulted in police forces coming to blows with each other in the streets on multiple occasions. On Feb. 19, 2020, a section of the Prados del Este highway in Caracas was shut down as officers from Venezuela’s National Police and the country’s investigative police brandished weapons, shoving, punching and wrestling each other to the ground.

    … cooperating gangs

    It is, as such, highly unlikely that falling homicide rates are the result of policing. Indeed, I interviewed over 200 police officers while conducting research for my book, and most believed that the government’s policing initiatives contributed to crime and violence rather than reducing it.

    A more plausible explanation for falling homicide figures is that Maduro’s policies have resulted in more consolidated relationships between criminal groups themselves.

    Maduro’s government has built relationships with gangs, but this doesn’t necessarily imply control over them. Since 2013 the government has negotiated pacts with some of the country’s largest gangs, including a gang confederation led by the infamous El Koki in Caracas and the Belén gang in the state of Miranda.

    The government agreed to tolerate illicit activities within certain areas and prohibit police from entering gang territory. In exchange, gangs agreed to reduce killings and other highly visible crimes such as kidnapping. As my book and previous research with Verónica Zubillaga, Francisco Sánchez and Leonard Gómez shows, these pacts allowed gangs to consolidate control over territory and illicit markets.

    Gangs also negotiated agreements among themselves in case the government pacts fell through. For example, they agreed to divide territory and markets to avoid future conflict and share resources such as weapons and ammunition. This produced less conflict between gangs and less disruption in illicit markets, resulting in fewer homicides.

    When pacts have ruptured in the past, the spectacularly violent confrontations that ensued between gangs and the police have shown gangs’ capacity to resist government intervention. Still, the overall effect of pacts and gang consolidation has been a reduction in homicides.

    As one neighbor living in gang territory put it: “Before, gangs confronted each other; they killed each other. Now they don’t. Now they are growing.”

    ‘Mother of all infuriations’

    Relationships between the government and various nonstate armed groups, including gangs, have generated enormous discontent within police forces.

    As one police officer explained in an interview, these pacts represented the “mother of all infuriations.” For many officers, the goverment’s pacts with other armed groups is tantamount to its sponsorship of criminal activities.

    And this discontent has produced sporadic violent confrontations. Even when government-gang pacts are in place, the government has been unable to keep police forces from entering gang territory and engaging in deadly shootouts.

    Certainly from the outside, it may look like Maduro’s government has co-opted gangs for political purposes. And with the U.S. government adding Tren de Aragua to its list of global terrorist groups, that could put Venezuela in danger of being labeled a “state sponsor of terrorism.”

    However, the Ojeda case in Chile should not be taken as evidence that stable and strong ties exist between Maduro’s government and criminal groups – at least not yet.

    Instead, authoritarian survival in Venezuela for now seems to depend on volatile relationships between multiple and competing armed groups that collaborate temporarily with the government when their diverse interests overlap.

    Rebecca Hanson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The murder rate in Venezuela has fallen − but both Trump and Maduro are wrong about why – https://theconversation.com/the-murder-rate-in-venezuela-has-fallen-but-both-trump-and-maduro-are-wrong-about-why-249230

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Elon Musk’s deep ties to – and admiration for – China could complicate Trump’s Beijing policy

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Linggong Kong, Ph.D. Student, Auburn University

    Elon Musk holds an outsized influence in the new Trump administration.

    As head of his Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, the world’s wealthiest man has enjoyed nearly unfettered political power in slashing and refashioning the federal government as he sees fit. And it has quickly become clear that he has the president’s ear on issues beyond that brief.

    But on one topic, Musk stands somewhat apart from others in the coterie of aides and advisers around Trump: China. In contrast to the many hawks in the new Trump cabinet who call for a hard-line approach on China, Musk is a striking outlier.

    As an expert on China-U.S. relations who has monitored Musk’s views on China, I don’t find his long history of espousing pro-Chinese sentiment surprising, given that he has sought throughout to get a business hold in the country.

    But those entanglements are worth scrutiny, given Musk’s role in the Trump administration at a time when one of America’s biggest foreign policy challenges is how to manage its relationship with Beijing.

    Musk’s journey to the East

    For years, Musk has had significant business interests in China, with Tesla’s Shanghai factory, Tesla Giga Shanghai, playing a crucial role in the company’s global operations.

    Since its opening in 2019, the Shanghai plant has surpassed Tesla’s Fremont, California, facility in both size and productivity, now accounting for more than half of the company’s global deliveries and a majority of its profits. Moreover, nearly 40% of Tesla’s battery supply chain relies on Chinese companies, and these partnerships continue to expand.

    Elon Musk walks with Shanghai Mayor Ying Yong during the groundbreaking ceremony for a Tesla factory in Shanghai on Jan. 7, 2019.
    STR/AFP via Getty Images

    Notably, Tesla was the first foreign automaker permitted to establish operations in China without a local partner, following a change in ownership regulations. The Shanghai factory was constructed with the support of US$1.4 billion in loans from Chinese state-owned banks, granted at favorable interest rates.

    Between 2019 and 2023, the Shanghai government also provided Tesla with a reduced corporate tax rate of 15%10 percentage points lower than the standard rate.

    The cost advantages of manufacturing in Shanghai, which include lower production and labor expenses, have further cemented Tesla’s reliance on the Chinese market.

    Given that Musk’s wealth is largely tied to Tesla stock, his financial standing is increasingly dependent on the company’s fortunes in China, making any potential disengagement from the country both economically and strategically challenging.

    Tesla’s continued investment in China underscores this dependency. On Feb. 11, 2025, the company opened its second factory in Shanghai — a $200 million plant that is set to produce 10,000 megapack batteries annually. It’s the company’s first megapack battery factory outside the U.S..

    This investment deepens Tesla’s presence in China amid a new wave of U.S.-China trade tensions. On Feb. 1, the Trump administration imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, prompting Beijing’s retaliation with tariffs on American coal, liquefied natural gas, agricultural equipment and crude oil.

    A Chinese fan

    It remains unclear to what extent Musk’s financial interests in China will translate to real influence over the Trump administration’s policy toward Beijing. But Musk’s long history of pro-China remarks suggests the direction he wants the administration to move.

    During his visit to Beijing in April 2024, Musk praised the country, noting also: “I also have a lot of fans in China – well, the feeling is mutual.”

    His admiration appears to hinge in part on how he views business and labor practices in China. In that vein, Musk has criticized American workers as lazy and has faced U.S. labor law disputes, while simultaneously praising Chinese workers for “burning the 3 a.m. oil” under an intensely repressive labor system.

    In numerous posts on the social media platform X, formerly Twitter, which he owns, Musk has also praised China’s infrastructure and high-speed rail system, lauded its space program, applauded its leadership in global green energy initiatives and urged his followers to visit the country.

    Musk has also opposed U.S. efforts to decouple from China, describing the countries’ economies as “conjoined twins,” despite a sizable part of the foreign policy establishment in the West viewing decreased dependency on China as necessary for security interests amid rising geopolitical tensions.

    On the issue of Taiwan, the most dangerous flashpoint in U.S.-China relations, Musk has compared Taiwan to Hawaii, arguing that it is an integral part of China and noting that the U.S. Pacific Fleet has prevented mainland China from achieving reunification by force.

    Musk further suggested that the Taiwan dispute could be resolved by allowing China to establish Taiwan as a special administrative zone, similar to Hong Kong.

    His remarks were shared and welcomed by China’s then-ambassador to the U.S., who, in a post on X, emphasized China’s so-called peaceful unification strategy and advocated for the “one country, two systems” model.

    Trump’s back-channel envoy?

    The big question going forward is how Musk’s financial stakes in, and stated admiration for, China will translate into attempts to influence the U.S. administration’s China policy, particularly given Musk’s unconventional advisory role and the strong faction of anti-China hawks in Trumpworld.

    Given Musk’s approach to China, it’s hard to see him not trying to use his influence with the president to push for somewhat warmer relations with Beijing.

    If such counsel were heeded, it’s easy to envision Musk leveraging his deep ties to China, particularly his close personal relationship with China’s current second-ranking official, Premier Li Qiang, who was the Shanghai party chief when Tesla’s factory was built. In the scenario, Donald Trump could tap Musk as a back channel for diplomacy to ease U.S.-China tensions and facilitate bilateral cooperation when needed.

    To this point, it was, perhaps, telling that it was Musk who met with China President Xi Jinping’s envoy to Trump’s inauguration, Vice President Han Zheng, on the eve of the event.

    But it’s far from certain that Trump wants that diplomatic role for Musk, or that other voices won’t win out with regard to Beijing. In his first term, Trump launched an unprecedented trade war and tech blockade against China, fundamentally reshaping U.S.-China relations and pushing the U.S. toward something of a bipartisan consensus to counter Beijing that has existed for several years.

    Trump’s tariff moves and second-term picks for top trade and commerce roles, like Peter Navarro and Jamieson Greer — who played key roles in the trade war against China during the president’s first term — suggest that Trump’s commitment to further decoupling from China remains strong.

    Furthermore, Musk’s business interests and personal wealth tied to China could leave him vulnerable to Chinese influence. By leaning on Musk’s close ties with Trump, China could use his dependence on the Chinese market as a bargaining chip to pressure Trump into making concessions on issues of major strategic importance to Beijing.

    China has a history of coercing foreign companies reliant on its market into making compromises on matters concerning its national interests. For instance, Apple removed virtual private network apps from its app store in China at the government’s request. Similarly, Tesla could face comparable pressure in the future if Beijing wants to use Musk as a cudgel to influence policy in the Trump administration. Notably, as the head of DOGE, with access to sensitive data from multiple agencies, Musk could find himself caught between U.S. security scrutiny and China’s strategic targeting.

    So long as Musk retains the influence with Trump that he holds now, it’s conceivable that his pro-China sentiments will translate into attempts to influence government policy. Yet even if this is to be the case, whether those efforts succeed will depend on the president and his other advisers, many of whom are seeking an aggressive front against Beijing and are likely to view Musk as an impediment rather than ally in that fight to come.

    Linggong Kong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. How Elon Musk’s deep ties to – and admiration for – China could complicate Trump’s Beijing policy – https://theconversation.com/how-elon-musks-deep-ties-to-and-admiration-for-china-could-complicate-trumps-beijing-policy-249988

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why religion is fundamental to addressing climate change

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Hanane Benadi, Research Officer, Religion and Global Society, London School of Economics and Political Science

    “There is no time for imagination, religious or otherwise. We need to act now!” an irritated scientist told me during a workshop on climate change and religion in 2024. Contrary to the tone of his comment, this scientist was not dismissing religion as being marginal to tackling climate change, but his underlying assumption rang clear: religion, while undoubtedly a necessary part of the solution, is only useful if it works alongside rational science.

    Research by me and my colleagues suggests that framing religion and science as totally separate entities is unhelpful in advancing a global response to climate change.

    In 2022 and 2023, I spent four months conducting fieldwork in Egypt, living and interacting with Muslim and Christian communities in Cairo and Alexandria. As a salient reminder of the ongoing climate crisis, my research took place over the summer, when temperatures reached more than 45°C.

    These heatwaves were a part of everyday discussions, but I didn’t hear only scientific jargon used to refer to these phenomena. Often, religion was the language used to make sense of the heat.

    As an Anglican priest in Alexandria told me, members of his congregation understood these heatwaves as manifestations of climate change, but at the same time asked him: “What is God is trying to tell us? Is this a sign of his anger? What should we do?” In other words, while scientific knowledge was used to explain the extreme heat, religion gave it meaning.

    Building a global response to the climate crisis requires us to learn about the many ways people make sense of climate change and learn to live with its consequences. And for most of the world’s population, a purely scientific framing is unhelpful.

    Science v religion?

    The long-perceived tension between religion and science seems to be reappearing today as we confront climate change. The scientist’s reaction to my work is one example of this, which left me wondering: what role is religion playing in tackling climate change globally? And how often is it framed as a field outside of science?

    Unfortunately, the approach adopted on the global climate stage seems to perpetuate a hierarchy of knowledge that implies that science trumps social and cultural influences such as religion and ethics. It is telling that the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the preeminent global body on climate policy, still relies heavily on hard science in presenting its findings, despite efforts in its latest reports to highlight the role of social sciences and humanities, including religion, can play.

    With my team from the LSE Religion and Global Society research unit, I ran a climate change and religion workshop in Cairo with Muslim and Christian female and male faith leaders. Many of the 30 participants explained they felt frustrated that the climate science lens dominates.

    One member of a faith-based organisation told me during an interview after the workshop that: “We are often approached by western organisations and research institutions to collaborate. However, when we ask about the nature of these collaborations, it is often reduced to our logo and a couple of statements that tell people that they should care about climate change.”

    Rather than taking religion seriously on its own terms, climate science often shapes what kind of role religion should play in communicating climate change. This is a problem.

    Science meets religion

    Our current work with female scientists in Egypt is teaching us that in many non-western countries, such as Egypt, the religious and the scientific cannot be as easily untangled as some might like to think.

    I asked an Egyptian scientist who has been working on water management for the last 30 years how she sees the future of water in her country. She began her response with a verse from the Quran before turning to a scientific explanation of what that entails.

    While much of her work is informed by scientific models of reason that underpin the Egyptian state’s nationalist development projects, she can hold together scientific and religious ethical modes of reasoning. Bringing an understanding of this overlap to international climate policy is critical for creating global solidarity around this issue.

    Fortunately, things are changing. Through initiatives such as the UN Environment Programme’s Faith for Earth Coalition and the faith pavilion at recent UN climate summits, religious groups are becoming more prevalent and active on the global climate stage.

    But efforts to seek collaborations between scientists and faith communities are not good enough. We need to resist the urge to see religion as a mere vehicle for convincing most of the global population for whom religion gives meaning to life. The only way we can do that is for scientists and faith leaders to start laying the groundwork for new ways of thinking together.

    As Russian author Leo Tolstoy once wrote, “Science is meaningless because it has no answer to the only questions that matter to us: ‘What should we do and how shall we live?‘” The climate crisis demands new ways of thinking, new ways of perceiving reality, and religion is fundamental to achieving that.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.


    Hanane Benadi receives funding from British Academy.

    Hanane Benadi is a Research Officer at the London School of Economics

    ref. Why religion is fundamental to addressing climate change – https://theconversation.com/why-religion-is-fundamental-to-addressing-climate-change-248074

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sustainability ideals are often crushed by corporate demands. Here’s how businesses can let them flourish

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sanne Frandsen, Associate Professor in Organization, Lund University

    Urbanscape/Shutterstock

    A “calling” in the context of work might be characterised by a strong sense of purpose and a motivation beyond just being paid at the end of the month. It’s mostly associated with occupations like healthcare workers, teachers or nonprofit staff, for example. We might not immediately think of sustainability managers – employed by companies to reduce their environmental impact – as following a calling in the same sense.

    As researchers, however, we have found that sustainability and corporate social responsibility (CSR) managers are also drawn to their work by a calling to serve as agents for social change – even though their roles are corporate ones.

    The social aspirations of sustainability managers are key to the success of corporations’ CSR and sustainability work. However, these aspirations often clash with the corporate reality within the organisation.

    Our research is based on 57 sustainability managers in international companies in Sweden across various industries and career levels. We found that sustainability managers chose their careers in order to live out their strong socio-environmental ambitions.

    Yet keeping that motivation is far from easy. According to sustainability managers themselves, their employers fail to live up to their social aspirations. They are pushed to prioritise corporate goals over social good, and their visions are reduced to compliance only. Their innovative ideas can fade in the struggle to be heard and gain support within the organisation.

    We found that as sustainability managers gain more seniority within the corporation, they lose their socio-environmental purpose and instead start to focus on the bottom-line results of sustainability initiatives. This means they become less ambitious with regard to sustainability initiatives – and more concerned with the profit-driven benefits of sustainability.

    For example, a senior sustainability manager among our cohort who was employed at a company facing accusations of human rights violations focused more on improving the sustainability report and how she could communicate the idea that “CSR makes sense for business”.

    Though sustainability managers in the early stages of their careers are committed to radical change, their voices are seldom heard by the management or their colleagues. They struggle with feelings of social exclusion and meaninglessness, as their aspirations crumble.

    This can be emotionally draining and challenging to their identity, ultimately leading them to adopt more commercial aspirations instead. The sustainability managers find they can do little to mobilise the organisation to support their case for doing good.

    Shifting to the corporate mindset

    During their mid-careers, sustainability managers seemed more able to sell their social aspirations within the corporation. But their calling for social and environmental change becomes “corporatised” and a scaled-back version of their original vision. The shift to a business mindset seems important to get others in the organisation to take them seriously. It’s also important for the sustainability managers themselves, as it increases their sense of belonging within the organisation.

    But the initial drive towards societal change begins to dissipate. One sustainability manager explained that they had been “moulded” to think with more of a business mindset. “The first thing is that everything has to have business value,” they said.

    As sustainability managers in the later stages of their careers gain more power within their organisation, they also express more pride when they talk about their achievements. These are often linked to increased ranking or branding value – for example featuring on sustainability indices or securing media coverage of the company’s sustainability credentials.

    The social motivation for sustainability work, however, is sidelined. Sustainability managers say their work is meaningful and in line with their purpose. But the purpose is now almost exclusively driven more by corporate benefits.

    Businesses should take care not to crush the ambitions of early-career sustainability staff in the corporate machine.
    Iryna Inshyna/Shutterstock

    Are sustainability managers useless, then? Far from it. But our research shows how the very system that hires them to drive change often stifles their social and environmental aspirations.

    As such, companies should value and respond to sustainability managers’ social aspirations to ensure that they maintain the spirit, motivation, and passion for change. This, after all, is what lies at the heart of sustainability and CSR work.

    Our research underscores a critical point. If corporations want sustainability managers to drive meaningful and lasting change, they must support their calling for social impact. This includes giving them a voice and authority, for example, by including them in the executive team.

    Sustainability managers should not be relegated to work only on compliance tasks, but actively encouraged to contribute to the corporate strategy. A culture of openness that welcomes critical perspectives should embrace sustainability managers challenging the status quo. Without this, the drive for greener and more equitable corporate practices risks fading away.

    Sanne Frandsen receives funding from Handelsbankens Forskningstiftelser and the Swedish Research Council.

    Enrico Fontana and Mette Morsing do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Sustainability ideals are often crushed by corporate demands. Here’s how businesses can let them flourish – https://theconversation.com/sustainability-ideals-are-often-crushed-by-corporate-demands-heres-how-businesses-can-let-them-flourish-249556

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Asteroid has a very small chance of hitting Earth in 2032, but a collision could devastate a city

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Maggie Lieu, Research Fellow, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nottingham

    In December 2024, astronomers in Chile spotted a new asteroid streaking through the sky, which they named 2024 YR4. What’s significant about this 100m-wide space rock is that it has a small chance of hitting Earth in 2032.

    Since its discovery, the asteroid’s probability of an impact with our planet has gone all over the place. At one point, the risk rose as high as 3.1%. This may not sound like a lot, until you realise that that is a 1 in 32 chance of collision.

    As of February 21 2024, the European Space Agency’s (Esa) Near Earth Object Centre predicts the collision probability to be just 0.16%, which is a 1 in 625 chance – a huge difference. So why is there such a huge variability in these predictions? And is there really a need to be concerned?

    Asteroids are left over remnants from the formation of the solar system, mostly rock, but also metallic, or icy bodies that tend to live in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.

    Space agencies like Nasa and Esa independently monitor and track over 37,000 near Earth asteroids (NEAs). These NEAs are those that come within 1.3 astronomical units distance of Earth, where 1 astronomical unit is the average distance between the Earth and Sun. Around 1,700 objects are considered to have an elevated risk because they make a relatively close approach to Earth at some point in the future. They are said to have a non-zero probability of colliding with our planet.

    Now it’s estimated that 44,000 kg of space rock hits our planet every year, but most of it is dust or sand grain sized particles that will burn up in the atmosphere, creating the beautiful streaks in the sky that we know as shooting stars.

    Rarely do these objects make it to the Earth intact as a meteorite and it’s even rarer to have a cataclysmic impact, like the 10km wide object that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. The last major asteroid event in recent history was the 18m wide meteorite that hit Chelyabinsk in Russia in 2013.

    The fireball turned night into day and released an estimated 500 kilotons of energy (equivalent to 500,000 tonnes of TNT) as it explosively broke apart in our atmosphere. Around 1,500 people were injured – many through the sonic waves shattering windows.

    Current estimates for 2024 YR4 suggest it to be up to 100m in size. It is capable of releasing about 7.8 Megatons of energy (equivalent to 7.8 million tonnes of TNT explosive), which is much more than Chelyabinsk. If such an asteroid were to hit the centre of London you could expect over 2 million fatalities. But the effects would be felt over a larger area.

    The impact would have a “thermal radiation radius” of 26 km. Within this radius, the heat from the impact would be so intense it would cause third degree burns. So despite the small probabilities, there’s no question that this asteroid should be monitored and tracked closely.

    Nasa has also reported a very small chance that 2024 YR4 could collide with the Moon instead. This would pose no threat to people on Earth, but would generate a sizeable impact crater on our planet’s only natural satellite.

    No simple answers

    Tracking an asteroid turns out to be more complex than you might think. Unlike stars and galaxies, asteroids don’t emit light so are notoriously difficult to spot. This faintness likely contributed to why 2024 YR4 4 eluded detection up until so recently.

    In addition, the shape of the asteroid, and its albedo – which measures how reflective the asteroid is – is still highly uncertain, further complicating the prediction of its future path. The albedo of the asteroid not only tells us about the composition of the asteroid, but can inform us of interactions with the Sun.

    A 10 metre-wide asteroid broke up over Chelyabinsk, Russia, in 2013.

    A darker asteroid will absorb more light, heating up any gases within the asteroid. When released, these gases can act like jet thrusters, altering the trajectory of the asteroid. A more reflective asteroid, might incur more radiation pressure from the Sun. This pressure can actually push it in another direction to the one it was previously going in.

    The current estimates of YR4’s albedo are between 0.05 – 0.25, with 0 being completely matte, and 1 being completely reflective, so the margin of uncertainty is wide. As you might expect, the shape of the asteroid will also affect the direction in which these forces act and the resulting trajectory of the object.

    Current trajectory estimates assume a spherical asteroid, with a typical density for an S-type asteroid (a common type of rocky asteroid). The asteroid 2024 YR 4 has very little chance of being spherical (that shape tends to be seen in bigger objects with stronger gravity) and we don’t know what exactly it’s made from. Future observations, potentially including those from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), aim to refine our understanding of the asteroid’s shape.

    Comet 67P up close, in an image taken by the Rosetta spacecraft.
    ESA/Rosetta/NavCam – CC BY-SA IGO 3.0, CC BY-SA

    However, past discrepancies between predictions of the comet 67P, as seen by the Hubble telescope from far away, versus its actual shape captured by the Rosetta spacecraft, which explored it up close, demonstrate the limitations of our predictions.

    Spectral imaging (which measures different colours of light to give an indication of composition) will hopefully allow us to better understand what type of material is on the surface of the asteroid and whether there could be volatile gases hiding beneath it that could affect its future path.

    Given that the projected Earth impact is a mere seven years away, the window for sending a spacecraft to try and divert it away from our planet, as successfully demonstrated by Nasa’s Dart mission in 2022, is rapidly closing. While other options such as detonating a nuclear weapon near the asteroid to deflect its path remain theoretically possible, they come with significant risks and ethical considerations. For instance, instead of diverting the asteroid, a nuclear explosion could break it into two or more pieces, which could then collide with Earth in distinct locations.

    There is a possibility that the asteroid could be nudged off course by collisions with other space rocks. It’s also likely that, if it does collide with Earth, it won’t hit a populated region, since the majority of our planet is uninhabited. However, it should be possible to evacuate people should it threaten a populated area.

    For now, the best thing we can do is track the asteroid with more observations, refining its trajectory, properties and impact probability estimates as more data becomes available. As we have already seen over the past few days, the predictions are likely to continue changing.

    Maggie Lieu has received funding from STFC.

    ref. Asteroid has a very small chance of hitting Earth in 2032, but a collision could devastate a city – https://theconversation.com/asteroid-has-a-very-small-chance-of-hitting-earth-in-2032-but-a-collision-could-devastate-a-city-250598

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine war: Trump is not trying to appease Putin – he has a vision of a new US-China-Russia order

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

    There has been much and justified focus on the implications of a likely deal between US president Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and the overwhelmingly negative consequences this will have for Ukraine and Europe. But if Trump and Putin make a deal, there is much more at stake than Ukraine’s future borders and Europe’s relationship with the US.

    As we are nearing the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s future is more in doubt than it has ever been since February 2022. For once, analogies to Munich in 1938 are sadly appropriate. This is not because of a mistaken belief that Putin can be appeased, but rather because great powers, once again, make decisions on the fate of weaker states and without them in the room.

    Similar to the pressure that Czechoslovakia experienced from both Germany and its supposed allies France and Britain in 1938, Ukraine is now under pressure from Russia on the battlefield and the US both diplomatically and economically. Trump and his team are pushing hard for Ukraine to make territorial concessions to Russia and accept that some 20% of Ukrainian lands under Russia’s illegal occupation are lost. In addition, Trump demands that Ukraine compensate the United States for past military support by handing over half of its mineral and rare earth resources.

    The American refusal to provide tangible security guarantees not only for Ukraine but also for allied Nato troops if they were deployed to Ukraine as part of a ceasefire or peace agreement smacks of the Munich analogy. Not only did France and Britain at the time push Czechoslovakia to cede the ethnic German-majority Sudetenland to Nazi Germany. They also did nothing when Poland and Hungary also seized parts of the country. And they failed to respond when Hitler – a mere six months after the Munich agreement – broke up what was left of Czechoslovakia by creating a Slovak puppet state and occupying the remaining Czech lands.

    There is every indication that Putin is unlikely to stop in or with Ukraine. And it is worth remembering that the second world war started 11 months after Neville Chamberlain thought he had secured “peace in our time”.

    The Munich analogy may not carry that far, however. Trump is not trying to appease Putin because he thinks, as Chamberlain and Daladier did in 1938, that he has weaker cards than Putin. What seems to drive Trump is a more simplistic view of the world in which great powers carve out spheres of influence in which they do not interfere.

    The state of the conflict in Ukraine, February 20 2025.
    Institute for the Study of War

    The problem for Ukraine and Europe in such a world order is that Ukraine is certainly not considered by anyone in Trump’s team as part of an American zone of influence, and Europe is at best a peripheral part of it.

    Trump-eye lens on the world

    For Trump, this isn’t really about Ukraine or Europe but about re-ordering the international system in a way that fits his 19th-century view of the world in which the US lives in splendid isolation and virtually unchallenged in the western hemisphere. In this world view, Ukraine is the symbol of what was wrong with the old order. Echoing the isolationism of Henry Cabot, Trump’s view is that the US has involved itself into too many different foreign adventures where none of its vital interests were at stake.

    Echoing Putin’s talking points, the war against Ukraine no longer is an unjustified aggression but was, as Trump has now declared, Kyiv’s fault. Ukraine has become the ultimate test that the liberal international order failed to pass.

    The war against Ukraine clearly is a symbol of the failure of the liberal international order, but hardly its sole cause. In the hands of Trump and Putin it has become the tool to deal it a final blow. But while the US and Russia, in their current political configurations, may have found it easy to bury the existing order, they will find it much harder to create a new one.

    The push-back from Ukraine and key European countries may seem inconsequential for now, but even without the US, the EU and Nato have strong institutional roots and deep pockets. For all the justified criticism of the mostly aspirational responses from Europe so far, the continent is built on politically and economically far stronger foundations than Russia and the overwhelming majority of its people have no desire to emulate the living conditions in Putin’s want-to-be empire.

    Nor will Trump and Putin be able to rule the world without China. A deal between them may be Trump’s idea of driving a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, but this is unlikely to work given Russia’s dependence on China and China’s rivalry with the US.

    If Trump makes a deal with Xi as well, for example over Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea, let alone over Taiwan, all he would achieve is further retrenchment of the US to the western hemisphere. This would leave Putin and Xi to pursue their own, existing deal of a no-limits partnership unimpeded by an American-led counter-weight.

    From the perspective of what remains of the liberal international order and its proponents, a Putin-Xi deal, too, has an eerie parallel in history – the short-lived Hitler-Stalin pact of 1939. Only this time, there is little to suggest that the Putin-Xi alliance will break down as quickly.

    Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

    ref. Ukraine war: Trump is not trying to appease Putin – he has a vision of a new US-China-Russia order – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-trump-is-not-trying-to-appease-putin-he-has-a-vision-of-a-new-us-china-russia-order-249979

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: South Africa’s ‘working for water’ programme is meant to lead to skills and jobs: why it’s failing

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Sinazo Ntsonge, PhD Graduate, Department of Economics and Economic History, Rhodes University, Rhodes University

    South Africa’s Expanded Public Works Programme is part of its social safety net. It complements the country’s social grants system, which has over 28 million recipients.

    The public works programme helps fill a gap for people who fall outside the grant system, especially those who need work experience and skills training if they’re to get a job. These include unemployed young people, women and people with disabilities.

    One of the programmes under its umbrella is the Working for Water programme, which was launched in 1995. It was intended to control invasive alien plants so as to conserve water resources, and provide short-term employment and training for people not covered by the grants safety net.

    Since its inception, the programme, alongside other interventions targeted at the environment, has created over 200,000 person years of employment – the total number of days people were afforded work. More than half of these employment opportunities have been held by women, and more than 60% by young people under the age of 35 years.

    In my PhD research, I examined one of its flagship projects to assess its impact on the long-term livelihoods of beneficiaries. My aim was to determine whether the programme was achieving its intended role as a social protection mechanism.

    I found that the way the project was designed limited its potential to foster long-term livelihoods for participants. Long-term livelihoods are defined as the ability to achieve lasting economic stability and growth beyond the scope of the project itself.

    One key issue was the inconsistency in the number of workdays participants were assigned, as well as the quality and availability of the skills training they received. Specifically, the training lacked regularity and did not always align with market demands. It left participants without the practical, job-ready skills needed for sustained employment.

    This problem was compounded by budget cuts.

    Based on my findings, I propose key changes to improve the programme’s effectiveness: the provision of consistent funding and training that’s aligned to labour market needs.

    The project

    The project I looked at tackles the clearing of invasive Prosopis mesquite trees in the Northern Cape. This has involved clearing nearly 314,580 hectares of invaded land in that province.

    Spanning from 2004 to 2018, the project supported over 9,000 beneficiaries across three phases. In phase I (2004–2008), 2,411 people participated; in phase II (2009–2013), 2,861; and in phase III (2014–2018), 3,756.

    The project targeted youth, women and people with disabilities. Beneficiaries were spread across various age groups: 36–64 years in phase I, 22–35 and 36–64 years in phase II, and 18–35 years in phase III.

    Participants were paid monthly stipends which ranged from R2,900 to R5,000, which is equivalent to approximately US$157 to US$271 – higher than most South African social grants. For comparison, the disability social grant is R2,180 (US$118), the older person’s grant is R2,200 (US$119), the foster child grant is R1,180 (US$64), and the child support grant is R530 (US$28).

    I developed an evaluation framework to assess the programme’s impact on the long-term livelihoods of beneficiaries.

    The study was carried out over 14 days in 2020, coinciding with the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. With health restrictions in place, the research had to pivot from planned in-person interviews and focus groups to virtual interviews with key stakeholders and an online survey of beneficiaries. The survey gathered data from 33 beneficiaries, while interviews provided valuable insights from project managers overseeing the clearing initiative.

    The gaps

    I found that the project faced a number of challenges.

    Firstly, there was inconsistency in the number of workdays participants were assigned. Given that public works projects aim to alleviate poverty – primarily through stipends – budget cuts forced managers to focus on retaining beneficiaries to ensure they could at least feed themselves. This often meant reducing the number of workdays (from the required 230 days to just 100 days) and scaling back skills training.

    Secondly, there were shortcomings in the quality and availability of the skills training they received. Many of the courses offered were short-term or specific to invasive plant clearing, including herbicide application, brush cutter operation and firefighting. This meant it wasn’t relevant to the labour market.

    In the Northern Cape, the economy hinges on industries like mining, agriculture, manufacturing and construction. In mining, for example, knowledge of machinery operation, safety protocols and mine supervision is vital. Agriculture needs workers skilled in sustainable farming, irrigation techniques and equipment operation. Manufacturing needs expertise in production line management, welding and machinery operation. Construction projects require workers proficient in project management, site safety and heavy machinery operation.

    Given the region’s tourism potential, customer service and tour guiding are valuable. Finally, fostering entrepreneurship through business management and financial literacy can empower individuals to create small businesses. In addition, soft skills such as communication, leadership and teamwork are essential across all sectors for long-term employability.

    Many beneficiaries reported cycling through the Prosopis mesquite clearing project repeatedly, without gaining the work experience or skills needed to move into more sustainable jobs in the wider labour market.

    Thirdly, budget cuts restricted the availability of resources for both training and work opportunities.

    As a result, the initiative fell short of providing participants with the tools necessary for long-term economic success. Their prospects were limited after the project’s conclusion.

    Given the findings of my research study, the programme requires a shift in focus and changes need to be made.

    What needs to be done

    Firstly, funding for projects needs to be consistent. Secondly, training needs to be aligned with labour market needs. And thirdly, there needs to be a structured system for tracking long-term outcomes on the beneficiaries’ livelihoods following their participation.

    Without a system to track outcomes, it’s difficult to assess whether the project is equipping participants with skills for employment in the sectors that are driving the local economy.

    With these changes the programme can transition from a short-term employment solution to a sustainable intervention that equips beneficiaries with useful, transferable skills that are applicable to a range of sectors. This would ultimately improve their prospects for stable employment and long-term economic security, provided those jobs are available.

    Sinazo Ntsonge received funding from the NRM WfW programme, which was administered by the Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biology (CIB) at Stellenbosch University.

    ref. South Africa’s ‘working for water’ programme is meant to lead to skills and jobs: why it’s failing – https://theconversation.com/south-africas-working-for-water-programme-is-meant-to-lead-to-skills-and-jobs-why-its-failing-248694

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Who is Friedrich Merz, the man now most likely to lead Germany? Eight things to know

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ed Turner, Reader in Politics, Co-Director, Aston Centre for Europe, Aston University

    With the social democrat Olaf Scholz conceding defeat to the centre right in Germany’s election, the man most likely to be named the next chancellor will be Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz.

    The CDU has emerged as the largest party with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) second – its best-ever result in a federal election.

    Merz will have to assemble a coalition government, which will involve some tough negotiations, but Europe’s leaders can be expected to treat him as a “chancellor in waiting”. Here are eight things to know about the man about to take one of the most important political positions in Europe.

    1. He’s taking his party further to the right

    The first thing you need to know about Merz is that he and former chancellor Angela Merkel were longstanding rivals and sparring partners. Back in the early 2000s, after Merkel became leader of the CDU, she ousted Merz from his role as the party’s parliamentary leader, taking on the role herself.

    Merkel never made Merz a minister, and indeed he decided not to run for parliament again in 2009, having already begun to focus on his various private sector interests (as a lawyer but also a company board member). Merz was critical of Merkel’s decision to shift the CDU to the centre ground and was concerned it would open up space for the AfD to move into.




    Read more:
    What is the AfD? Germany’s far-right party, explained


    When Merz did become party leader in 2022, he began rewriting of the party’s programme in a much more conservative direction.

    2. He’s an economic liberal

    Merz takes a very different economic view to Merkel, at least in the latter years of her chancellorship. In 2003, he argued for a radical simplification of Germany’s tax rules such that a tax return could be calculated on the back of a beer mat.

    His party’s 2025 manifesto argued for deregulation and tax cuts to boost Germany’s sluggish growth. Part of this, Merz argued, should be funded by more conditionality being applied to welfare recipients, with a complete stop on benefits for recipients who refused to take any form of work on. In 2024, he also said he’d do “everything” to stop the EU taking on common debt.

    3. He’s a social conservative

    In his younger years, Merz was in the Catholic youth movement. He has a record of voting against abortion and has made a few awkward comments about homosexuality (saying of Klaus Wowereit, a gay mayor of Berlin, “I don’t mind as long as he doesn’t come near me”). In a strange comment, he once referred to his wife and daughters as evidence he didn’t have a problem with women. In a TV debate with Scholz, Merz was asked about Donald Trump’s recognition of only two genders, and reacted: “You can understand his position.”

    In 2000, Merz spoke of a German Leitkultur (loosely, “leading culture”, as contrasted with “multiculturalism”) – a term now in common parlance in Merz’s CDU.

    4. He’s a transatlantacist

    From 2009 to 2019, Merz chaired the Atlantic Bridge, a prominent German organisation devoted to strengthening relations between Germany and the US. He is a transatlanticist by instinct and recently sent a hand-written note to Donald Trump congratulating him on his election, noting his “strong mandate for leadership”. However, in a statement on election night, Merz pledged to “achieve independence” from the US and recognised that Trump is “largely indifferent” to Europe’s fate.

    5. He’s pro-European

    With some caveats (for instance around common debt and cooperation over refugees) Merz is a pro-European. He was a member of the European parliament between 1989 and 1994, and has been clear that closer European cooperation is an essential part of Europe’s answer to Trump.

    He has also patched up relations with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen (with whom, as a Merkel ally and CDU liberal he had little instinctive attraction), and sees potential in cooperation with her and with Manfred Weber, a CSU politician and leader of the European parliament’s centre-right MEPs.

    Merz has also pledged to visit Warsaw and Paris to rebuild relations after a difficult period under Scholz.

    6. His dealings with the far right have been controversial

    Merz has been consistently inconsistent when it comes to relations with the AfD. He mused in 2023 about the possibility of cooperation at a local level, noting that “we are obliged to recognise democratic elections”, before rowing back.

    In November 2024, Merz said he and his party would not attempt to pass legislation in the national parliament if it meant relying on AfD votes to do it. But he shocked the nation in January 2025 when he did precisely that – pushing forward a hardline immigration plan with the AfD’s support.




    Read more:
    What happened in the German parliament and why is the far right hailing it as a ‘historic’ moment?


    The volte face earned him criticism from his nemesis, Merkel – although that’s not something likely to have concerned him unduly.

    7. He’ll be hemmed in by coalition politics

    Merz will need to strike a deal with multiple other parties in order to govern. That will make his flagship programme of tax cuts hard to achieve, since cuts to welfare or climate spending would be anathema to all potential coalition partners.

    Germany’s other parties instead want Merz to reconsider Germany’s “debt brake” – the constitutional rules that restrict government borrowing. He’ll be under even more pressure to do so given a broad consensus over the need to raise defence spending.

    Perhaps it will take a conservative fiscal hawk to assemble the necessary two-thirds majorities in both chambers of parliament for change.

    8. He’d like to visit… Tibet?

    Finally, among rather thin pickings in popular reporting on Merz’s hobbies, a softball interview last summer told us he likes modern classical music and Beethoven, and one day hopes to visit Tibet.

    But holidays will be some way from his priorities at the moment. There is a strong desire in Europe for Germany to play a more active leadership role once again. At a time when Trump is noisily backing away from underscoring European security and supporting Ukraine, Merz is keenly aware of the void being opened up, and is determined that Germany, with its European allies (including even the UK) will step up.

    Ed Turner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Who is Friedrich Merz, the man now most likely to lead Germany? Eight things to know – https://theconversation.com/who-is-friedrich-merz-the-man-now-most-likely-to-lead-germany-eight-things-to-know-247643

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Friedrich Merz has won Germany’s election. But as the far right soars, forming a government may be difficult

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Matt Fitzpatrick, Professor in International History, Flinders University

    Friedrich Merz’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has captured the highest proportion of votes in Germany’s election on Sunday. The celebrations could be short-lived, though, as the task of forming a government now looms.

    As it stands, Germany’s public broadcaster has projected Merz’s CDU and its Christian Social Union (CSU) counterpart in Bavaria to win 208 seats in the Bundestag (28.5%). The ousted Social Democratic Party (SPD) has been reduced to 121 seats (16.5%), while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party achieved its biggest-ever result of 151 seats (20.7%).

    Other minor parties have failed to meet the 5% threshold in the proportional German parliamentary system, limiting the possible options for a government to take shape.

    Merz’s party did lift its vote share compared to its record low in 2021. And German voters have given him the opportunity to attempt forming a governing coalition.

    However, his electoral strategy may have made it harder to solve a number of problems, many of them of his own making. Here are four key things his victory has failed to do, which could make governing in Germany more difficult.

    1. Stem the number of voters to the far right

    With the German economy in the doldrums, Merz would have easily won on the question of economic management alone. Strangely, however, his electoral strategy mimicked the anti-migrant rhetoric of the far-right AfD.

    By noisily electioneering on the policy of stemming the flow of migrants and insisting at every opportunity that migrants (particularly those from the Middle East) were a threat to the German way of life, Merz has given legitimacy to what had been fringe policies.

    Yet, the election results show that the Germans who were motivated to vote for an anti-migrant party went for the most virulent version (the AfD) – particularly in the old East Germany – and not Merz’s centre-right imitation.

    Instead of stealing votes from the AfD, Merz has substantially contributed to the record showing of the far-right party by making immigration – and radical approaches to it – a central issue.

    The smiles on the face of the AfD leadership after the election tell the story. The party may not be in government, but its policies will in all likelihood be pursued by a Merz government.

    2. Exclude the left from German politics

    The day before the election, Merz railed against “green and left crazies” and insisted “there is no longer left politics in Germany”.

    The SPD vote did sink dramatically off the back of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ineffectual and lacklustre term in office. But the left-wing Die Linke party (The Left) rode the wave of anti-AfD and anti-Merz sentiment to return from the wilderness with its best election showing in almost a decade.

    In particular, a rousing speech by Die Linke leader Heidi Reichinneck helped lift the mood on the left in response to Merz’s anti-migrant stance. Die Linke is back in the Bundestag, at least for another term.

    3. Create a governing coalition

    Merz has spent the past few weeks breaking taboos by working with the German far right and roundly abusing his opponents using the kind of intemperate language rarely seen in German politics. Now, he is faced with building a governing coalition.

    He has painted himself into a corner. He has called the Greens party and Die Linke “crazies”. And his closest ideological ally, the Free Democrats (FDP), appear to have failed to reach the 5% hurdle to enter parliament after voters punished the party for effectively blowing up the last coalition government.

    So shockingly poor was the FDP’s result, its leader, Christian Lindner, has offered his resignation.

    Previously, a “grand coalition” between the CDU and SPD has been able to form a stable government. This was especially so under former-Chancellor Angela Merkel, the longtime CDU leader.

    The centre-left SPD vote might just be large enough to form a coalition government with Merz’s CDU. Whether the SPD would do so after being shocked in the past few weeks by Merz’s dalliances with the far right remains an open question.

    Scholz, the SPD leader, has categorically ruled out serving in a Merz cabinet. Whether he might resign to make way for a grand coalition remains to be seen, should one prove mathematically possible.

    That leaves only the far-right AfD – the only other party potentially large enough to allow Merz to form a two-party coalition government. Merz has ruled out a CDU-AfD coalition as a threat to German democracy.

    Merz will either have to radically revise his attitudes towards the parties to his left or break his word not to allow the far right into government. If he did the latter, he may very well become Germany’s 21st century Franz von Papen, the Weimar Republic-era leader widely viewed as having helped usher the Nazis to power in the 1930s.

    4. Exorcise the ghost of Angela Merkel

    Merz’s career has been marked by his inability to overcome Merkel and her vision of the CDU as the umbrella party of the democratic centre.

    After dragging his party to the right, Merz has posted an electoral result lower than anything Merkel ever gained.

    Even if his party is able to cobble together a coalition government, Merz will still sit in the shadow of his more democratically popular, centrist predecessor.

    Matt Fitzpatrick receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is the President of the History Council of South Australia.

    ref. Friedrich Merz has won Germany’s election. But as the far right soars, forming a government may be difficult – https://theconversation.com/friedrich-merz-has-won-germanys-election-but-as-the-far-right-soars-forming-a-government-may-be-difficult-250621

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: Valls faces Kanak ‘first people’ clash with loyalists over independence talks

    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk

    French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls’ first two days in New Caledonia have been marred by several clashes with local pro-France, anti-independence movements, who feared he would side with their pro-independence opponents.

    However, he remained confident that all stakeholders would eventually come and sit together at the table for negotiations.

    Valls arrived in the French Pacific territory on Saturday with a necessary resumption of crucial political talks regarding New Caledonia’s political future high on his agenda, nine months after the deadly May 2024 civil unrest.

    His visit comes as tensions have risen in the past few days against a backdrop of verbal escalations and rhetoric, the pro-France camp opposing independence stressing that three referendums had resulted in three rejections of independence in 2018, 2020, and 2021.

    But the third referendum in December 2021 was boycotted by a large part of the pro-independence, mainly Kanak community, and they have since disputed the validity of its result (even though it was deemed valid in court rulings).

    On Saturday, the first day of his visit to the Greater Nouméa city of Mont-Dore, during a ceremony paying homage to a French gendarme who was killed at the height of the riots last year, Valls and one of the main pro-France leaders, French MP Nicolas Metzdorf, had a heated and public argument.

    ‘First Nation’ controversy
    Metzdorf, who was flanked by Sonia Backès, another major pro-France local leader, said Valls had “insulted” the pro-France camp because he had mentioned the indigenous Kanak people as being the “first people” in New Caledonia — equivalent to the notion of “First Nation” people.

    Hours before, Valls had just met New Caledonia’s Custom Senate (a traditional gathering of Kanak chiefs) and told them that “nothing can happen in New Caledonia without a profound respect towards [for] the Melanesian people, the Kanak people, and the first people”.

    French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls (second from left) meets pro-France supporters as he arrives in New Caledonia on Saturday as French High Commissioner Louis Le Franc looks on. Image: NC la 1ère

    Metzdorf told Valls in an exchange that was filmed on the road and later aired on public broadcaster NC la 1ère: “When you say there are first people, you don’t respect us! Your statements are insulting.”

    “If there are first peoples, it means there are second peoples and that some are more important than others.”

    To which Valls replied: “When you are toying with these kinds of concepts, you are making a mistake.”

    Every word counts
    The 1998 Nouméa Accord’s preamble is largely devoted to the recognition of New Caledonia’s indigenous community (autochtone/indigenous).

    On several occasions, Valls faced large groups of pro-France supporters with French tricolour flags and banners (some in the Spanish language, a reference to Valls’s Spanish double heritage), asking him to “respect their democratic (referendum) choice”.

    Some were also chanting slogans in Spanish (“No pasaran”), or with a Spanish accent.

    “I’m asking for just one thing: for respect towards citizens and those representing the government,” an irate Valls told the crowd.

    Questions have since been raised from local organisations and members of the general public as to why and how an estimated 500 pro-France supporters had been allowed to gather while the French High Commissioner still maintains a ban on all public gatherings and demonstrations in Nouméa and its greater area.

    “We voted three times no. No means no,” some supporters told the visiting minister, asking him not to “let them down”.

    “You shouldn’t believe what you’ve been told. Why wouldn’t you remain French?”, Valls told protesters.

    “I think the minister must state very clearly that he respects those three referendums and then we’ll find a solution on that basis,” said Backès.

    However, both Metzdorf and Backès reaffirmed that they would take part in “negotiations” scheduled to take place this week.

    “We are ready to make compromises”, said Backès.

    Valls carried on schedule
    Minister Valls travelled to Northern parts and outer islands of New Caledonia to pay homage to the victims during previous insurrections in New Caledonia, including French gendarmes and Kanak militants who died on Ouvéa Island (Loyalty group) in the cave massacre in 1988.

    During those trips, he also repeatedly advocated for rebuilding New Caledonia and for every stakeholder to “reconcile memories” and sit at the negotiation table “without hatred”.

    Valls believes ‘everyone will be at the table’
    In an interview with local public broadcaster NC la 1ère yesterday, the French minister said he was confident “everyone will be at the table”.

    The first plenary meeting is to be held this afternoon.

    It will be devoted to agreeing on a “method”.

    “I believe everyone will be there,” he said.

    “All groups, political, economic, social, all New Caledonians, I’m convinced, are a majority who wish to keep a strong link within France,” he said.

    He also reiterated that following New Caledonia’s Matignon (1988) and Nouméa (1998) peace accords, the French Pacific territory’s envisaged future was to follow a path to “full sovereignty”.

    “The Nouméa Accord is the foundation. Undeniably, there have been three referendums. And then there was May 13.

    “There is a before and and after [the riots]. My responsibility is to find a way. We have the opportunity of these negotiations, let’s be careful of the words we use,” he said, asking every stakeholder for “restraint”.

    “I’ve also seen some pro-independence leaders say that [their] people’s sacrifice and death were necessary to access independence. And this, also, is not on.”

    Valls also said the highly sensitive issue of “unfreezing” New Caledonia’s special voters’ roll for local elections (a reform attempt that triggered the May 2024 riots) was “possible”, but it will be part of a wider, comprehensive agreement on the French Pacific entity’s political future.

    A mix of ‘fear and hatred’
    Apart from the planned political negotiations, Valls also intends to devote significant time to New Caledonia’s dire economic situation, in post-riot circumstances that have not only caused 14 dead, but also several hundred job losses and total damage estimated at some 2.2 billion euros (NZ$4 billion).

    A first, much-expected economic announcement also came yesterday: Valls said the State-funded unemployment benefits (which were supposed to cease in the coming days) woud now be extended until June 30.

    For the hundreds of businesses which were destroyed last year, he said a return to confidence was essential and a prerequisite to any political deal . . .  And vice-versa.

    “If there’s no political agreement, there won’t be any economic investment.

    “This may cause the return of fresh unrest, a form of civil war. I have heard those words coming back, just like I’ve heard the words racism, hatred . . . I can feel hope and at the same time a fear of violence.

    “I feel all the ferments of a confrontation,” he said.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Global: Scam Factories: the inside story of Southeast Asia’s brutal fraud compounds

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ashlynne McGhee, Digital Storytelling Editor

    Scam Factories is a special multimedia and podcast series by The Conversation that explores the inner workings of Southeast Asia’s brutal scam compounds.

    The Conversation’s digital storytelling and podcast teams collaborated with three researchers: Ivan Franceschini, a lecturer in Chinese Studies at the University of Melbourne; Ling Li, a PhD candidate at Ca’ Foscari University of Venice; and Mark Bo, an independent researcher.

    The researchers have spent the past few years interviewing nearly 100 survivors of these compounds and documenting the rise of the industry in Southeast Asia for a forthcoming book.

    Scam Factories will unfold across three multimedia articles and three podcast episodes this week. We’ll update this page as more is published.

    Part 1

    Our first article explores how people are lured into the industry and what life is like inside the compounds, where scammers are forced to work long hours and are often subjected to violence.

    And in our first podcast episode, No skills required, our researchers travel to a village in Cambodia called Chrey Thom to see what these compounds look like. And we hear from two survivors, a Ugandan man we’re calling George and a Malaysian woman we’re calling Lee, about how they were recruited into compounds in Laos and Myanmar.

    The Conversation contacted all the companies mentioned in this series for a comment, except Jinshui, which we couldn’t contact. We did not receive a response from any of them.

    Credits

    The podcast series was written and produced by Gemma Ware with production assistance from Katie Flood and Mend Mariwany. Sound design by Michelle Macklem. Leila Goldstein was our producer in Cambodia and Halima Athumani recorded for us in Uganda. Hui Lin helped us with Chinese translation. Photos by Roun Ry, KDA, Halima Athumani and Ivan Franceschini.

    Justin Bergman at The Conversation in Australia edited the articles in the series and Matt Garrow worked on the graphical elements of the stories. Series oversight and editing help from Ashlynne McGhee.

    ref. Scam Factories: the inside story of Southeast Asia’s brutal fraud compounds – https://theconversation.com/scam-factories-the-inside-story-of-southeast-asias-brutal-fraud-compounds-250448

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘It seemed like a good job at first’: how people are trafficked, trapped and forced to scam in Southeast Asia – Scam Factories podcast, Ep 1

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Gemma Ware, Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

    Scam Factories is a podcast series from The Conversation Weekly taking you inside Southeast Asia’s brutal fraud compounds. It accompanies a series of articles on The Conversation.

    Hundreds of thousands of people are estimated to work in these scam compounds. Many were trafficked there and then forced into criminality by defrauding people around the world via email, phone and social media.

    The Conversation collaborated for this series with three researchers: Ivan Franceschini, a lecturer in Chinese Studies at the University of Melbourne, Ling Li, a PhD candidate at Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, and Mark Bo, an independent researcher. They’ve spent the past few years researching the expansion of scam compounds in the region for a forthcoming book. They’ve interviewed nearly 100 survivors of these compounds, analysed maps and financial documents related to the scam industry, and tracked scammers online to find out how these operations work.

    In this first episode of the podcast series, No Skills Required, we find out how people are recruited and trafficked into the compounds – with many believing they’re going there to do a legitimate job.

    Our researchers travel to a village in Cambodia, Chrey Thom, to see what these compounds look like. And we hear from two survivors, a Ugandan man we’re calling George and a Malaysian woman we’re calling Lee to protect their real identities, about how they were tricked into travelling to compounds in Laos and Myanmar.

    Read an article by Ivan Franceschini and Ling Li which accompanies this episode.

    The Conversation contacted all the companies mentioned in this series for a comment, except Jinshui, which we could not contact. We did not receive a response from any of them.


    This episode was written and produced by Gemma Ware, with assistance from Mend Mariwany and Katie Flood. Leila Goldstein was our producer in Cambodia and Halima Athumani recorded for us in Uganda. Hui Lin helped us with Chinese translation. Sound design by Michelle Macklem and editing help from Ashlynee McGhee and Justin Bergman.

    Listen to The Conversation Weekly podcast via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here.

    Mark Bo, an independent researcher who works with Ivan Franeschini and Ling Li, is also interviewed in this podcast series. Ivan, Ling, Mark, and others have co-founded EOS Collective, a non-profit organisation dedicated to investigating the criminal networks behind the online scam industry and supporting survivors.

    ref. ‘It seemed like a good job at first’: how people are trafficked, trapped and forced to scam in Southeast Asia – Scam Factories podcast, Ep 1 – https://theconversation.com/it-seemed-like-a-good-job-at-first-how-people-are-trafficked-trapped-and-forced-to-scam-in-southeast-asia-scam-factories-podcast-ep-1-250444

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sea-level rise: a new method to estimate the probability of different outcomes – including a worst case

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Benjamin P. Horton, Director of the Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University

    Here is a depressing fact: over the coming decades, sea-level rise will continue to threaten ecosystems, communities and cities. No matter how quickly we reduce our carbon emissions, our past emissions commit us to ongoing sea-level rise, given the long-drawn-out impact of climate warming on the oceans and ice sheets. Just how bad it gets, however, will depend on our current and future emissions.

    Even as we strive for net-zero emissions, we must prepare for devastating possibilities. But decision-makers face a major obstacle: the specific rate and magnitude of future sea-level rise is deeply uncertain. Different methods produce different projections of long-term sea-level rise. The problem of reconciling these different methods and projections has undermined planning to protect people from future sea-level rise.

    In a recent paper published in Earth’s Future, we and our colleagues tackle this problem. We propose a new method that combines the complementary strengths of different sea-level projections. We use our method to quantify the uncertainty of future sea-level rise. It allows us to estimate a “very likely” range. “Very likely” means that there is a 9-in-10 chance (90% probability) that future sea-level rise will lie within this range, if our future emissions follow an assumed emissions scenario.

    Under a low-emissions scenario that corresponds to approximately 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels, global sea level will “very likely” rise between 0.3 and 1.0 metres by the end of this century. Under a high-emissions scenario that corresponds to approximately 5°C warming, global sea level will “very likely” rise between 0.5 and 1.9 metres. Given that we will likely exceed 2°C warming, preparing for more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 is, therefore, necessary.

    Adapted from Grandey et al. (2024).
    Benjamin P. Horton and Benjamin S. Grandey, CC BY-ND

    The challenge of poorly understood processes

    Our method builds on and complements the current reference document for many decision-makers: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report IPCC 6AR. For five emissions scenarios, the IPCC published a most-likely “median” projection and a “likely” range. “Likely” means that there is at least a 2-in-3 chance (66% probability) of sea-level rise within this range. The “likely” range may understate the risk of more extreme possibilities, a weakness that can be addressed by a complementary “very likely” range. However, the IPCC did not estimate a “very likely” range because poorly understood ice sheet processes posed a challenge. We address this challenge, to provide decision-makers with more reliable estimates of future possibilities.

    Many processes contribute to sea-level rise. Of particular importance are ice sheet processes in Greenland and Antarctica. Some of these ice sheet processes are well understood, but others less so. We have only a poor understanding of processes that could drive abrupt melting of ice, producing rapid sea-level rise.




    À lire aussi :
    We used 1,000 historical photos to reconstruct Antarctic glaciers before a dramatic collapse


    Climate models and ice sheet models, such as those used in the IPCC 6AR, are very good at simulating well-understood processes, such as thermal expansion of the ocean. The IPCC used model-based projections to derive a reliable median projection and “likely” range. However, these models often neglect poorly understood processes that could cause the ice sheets to melt much faster than we expect. To complement the models, experts can provide alternative projections based on their understanding of these processes. This is known as expert elicitation. Therefore, the use of models and expert elicitation can provide complementary sea-level projections, but planners have great difficulty deciding when and where to apply the two different approaches.

    In our paper, we have developed a novel method to combine the complementary sea-level projections from models and experts. We use our method to quantify the full uncertainty range of future sea-level rise using a probability distribution. This is how we can estimate a “very likely” range and explore the question, “What high-end sea-level rise should we plan for?”

    A high-end projection

    To make informed judgements, decision-makers often need information about low-likelihood, high-cost possibilities. A high-end projection of sea-level rise is especially useful when planning long-lasting critical infrastructure that is vital for the functioning of society and the economy. A high-end projection can also highlight a catastrophic risk associated with unrestrained carbon dioxide emissions.

    We define our high-end projection as the 95th percentile of the probability distribution under the high-emissions scenario. Our high-end projection of global sea-level rise is 1.9 metres by the end of this century.

    Our high-end projection complements existing high-end projections of 21st century sea-level rise. The IPCC 6AR included two: 1.6 metres and 2.3 metres. Our projection of 1.9 metres falls between these two values.

    In contrast to the IPCC 6AR, we estimate the probability of reaching the high-end projection. If our future emissions follow the high-emissions scenario, we estimate that the probability of reaching 1.9 metres by the end of this century is 5% (1 in 20). Considering that the high-emissions scenario is unlikely, our high-end projection can be interpreted as a worst-case outcome. We also estimate the probability of exceeding 1.0 metres by the end of this century: 16% (about 1 in 6) under the high-emissions scenario, and 4% (1 in 25) under the low-emissions scenario.

    Reducing the uncertainty

    Through climate science, we have learned much about the Earth’s climate system. However, we still have much more to discover. As our understanding improves, the uncertainty in sea-level rise should reduce. Therefore, the “very likely” range of future sea-level rise should narrow, due to the ongoing research efforts of the climate science community.

    In the meantime, we need to identify potential solutions that can reduce coastal flood risk in ways that support the long-term resilience and sustainability of communities and the environment, and reduce the economic costs associated with flood damage. Alongside local adaptation, the best way to mitigate sea-level rise is to slow down climate change by implementing the commitments laid out in the Paris Agreement in 2015.

    If we can limit warming to well below 2°C, consistent with the agreement, we estimate that the probability of reaching 1.9 metres by the end of the century shrinks to less than 0.2% (1 in 500). The more the world limits its greenhouse gas emissions, the lower the chance of triggering rapid ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica, and the safer we will be.

    This research is supported by the National Research Foundation, Singapore, and National Environment Agency, Singapore under the National Sea Level Programme Funding Initiative (Award No. USS-IF-2020-3) and Ministry of Education, Singapore, under its AcRF Tier 3 Award MOE2019-T3-1-004.


    Created in 2007 to help accelerate and share scientific knowledge on key societal issues, the Axa Research Fund has supported nearly 700 projects around the world conducted by researchers in 38 countries. To learn more, visit the website of the Axa Research Fund or follow @AXAResearchFund on X.

    Benjamin P. Horton was supported by the Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund: MOE2019-T3-1-004.

    Benjamin S. Grandey’s research is supported by the National Research Foundation, Singapore, and National Environment Agency, Singapore under the National Sea Level Programme Funding Initiative (Award No. USS-IF-2020-3).

    ref. Sea-level rise: a new method to estimate the probability of different outcomes – including a worst case – https://theconversation.com/sea-level-rise-a-new-method-to-estimate-the-probability-of-different-outcomes-including-a-worst-case-250180

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: DRC vs Rwanda at the African Court: why it could be a decisive moment for human rights and justice on the continent

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Frans Viljoen, Professor of International Human Rights Law, Centre for Human Rights, University of Pretoria

    As the armed conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) rages on, calls are being made for non-military solutions.

    One such process is a court case before the African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights – a judicial organ of the African Union (AU) established by African states “to ensure the protection of human and peoples’ rights”.

    The case was brought by the DRC against Rwanda on 21 August 2023.

    The DRC alleges that Rwanda has violated the African Union’s main human rights treaty, the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights. Kinshasa claims Rwanda has supported M23 rebels since 2021 and that they are responsible for mass killings, mass displacement, destruction of schools, destruction of infrastructure and looting. Rwanda has always denied supporting M23.




    Read more:
    DRC conflict: talks have failed to bring peace. Is it time to try sanctions?


    I have followed the evolution of the African Court in my research since its inception in 2006. I consider this case to be highly significant. It would set a key precedent for human rights enforcement in Africa and tests the AU’s ability to uphold legal rulings. A successful outcome could encourage peaceful dispute resolution among African nations.

    Significant case

    The DRC vs Rwanda case is the first inter-state case ever to be submitted to the African Court.

    Inter-state cases allow one state to submit a case against another for allegedly violating the African Charter, provided that they have both accepted the court’s jurisdiction. So far, only 34 of the AU member states – including the DRC and Rwanda – have accepted the court’s competence to hear cases against them.

    The case of DRC v Rwanda can set an important African precedent. It serves as a way to uphold the integrity of human rights, and not serve the national interest of complaining states.




    Read more:
    M23 rebels are marching across eastern DRC: the interests driving players in the conflict


    It’s also the first time African states have agreed to a judicial settlement of a dispute by an independent body of African judges. Eleven judges, of whom all but the presiding judge serve part-time, hear and decide cases at the court’s seat in Arusha, Tanzania. It may serve as an example that other states in similar situations could emulate, thus allowing for future conflicts to be defused.

    Before the case can proceed, the court first has to consider “preliminary objections” by the state against which the case has been brought – in this case, Rwanda. If the court finds that it has the authority to hear and rule on the case, there is the possibility of legal consequences, like reparations.

    This will be a big test for the African Union. The challenge will be getting countries to comply with decisions – since the African Court does not have an enforcement arm.




    Read more:
    LGBTQ+ rights: African Union watchdog goes back on its own word


    Even if both countries have accepted the court’s jurisdiction, compliance is not automatic. Compliance with the court’s orders has historically been far from exemplary – less than 10% of its decisions have been fully observed.

    It is up to African Union (AU) states collectively to put pressure on non-compliant states. One possibility is imposing sanctions under article 23(2) of the AU Constitutive Act – something the AU policy organs have been reluctant to do so far.

    Public hearing in DRC case

    At a public hearing of the case in February 2025, Rwanda insisted that the court did not have the competence to deal with the case. It argues that the court does not have territorial jurisdiction to rule on the case, because the alleged violations took place outside the borders of Rwanda.

    The DRC countered that while states are usually responsible for actions within their own territory, they are still accountable for actions they control outside their borders.




    Read more:
    Can a regional court be a viable alternative to the ICC in Africa?


    The DRC therefore asked the court to conclude that it has jurisdiction over Rwanda, based on the presence in the DRC of Rwanda’s armed forces and their support for M23.

    Rwanda objected, claiming no clear “dispute” existed between it and the DRC. The DRC countered that a dispute didn’t need to be formal and one clearly existed due to the many unsuccessful efforts to resolve the conflict diplomatically.

    Rwanda argued the case was inadmissible since victims hadn’t exhausted legal remedies in Rwanda. The DRC countered that expecting thousands of people to do so – amid insecurity and rights violations on a massive scale – was unrealistic.




    Read more:
    The African Union has a poor record of protecting democracy. 2024 was no different


    Rwanda further argued that it was an abuse of process for the DRC to have instituted a similar case (Minister of Justice of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) v The Attorney General of the Republic of Rwanda) before the East African Court of Justice. It has heard “preliminary objections” from the attorney general of Rwanda and is yet to give its judgment on this issue. To this, the DRC responded that it had observed the only relevant requirement stipulated in the African Charter, namely, that it must not submit to the court a matter that had been settled by another dispute settlement process.

    Next steps

    After the public hearing, the court deliberated. Usually, it gives its judgment at its next session, which is likely to be in early June 2025.

    The DRC had already approached the court in 2023 to adopt an “expedited procedure”. While the court dismissed this request, in March 2024, it agreed to deal with the case “on a priority basis”. In any event, it is obligated to deliver its judgment within 90 days of its deliberation.

    Rwanda strongly opposed the African Court handling the case, but if the case moves forward, it must cooperate. This is because both Rwanda and the DRC have agreed to follow and enforce the court’s decisions as part of their legal commitment.

    While this is a test case for the African Court, in the near future it may well become a test case for the African Union as a whole.

    Frans Viljoen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. DRC vs Rwanda at the African Court: why it could be a decisive moment for human rights and justice on the continent – https://theconversation.com/drc-vs-rwanda-at-the-african-court-why-it-could-be-a-decisive-moment-for-human-rights-and-justice-on-the-continent-250074

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mining Mali: how policy changes are reshaping the sector

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Mamadou Camara, enseignant-chercheur, Université des Sciences sociales et de Gestion de Bamako

    As Mali’s mining sector faces growing tensions — highlighted by the recent seizure of gold stocks from the Canadian company Barrick by the military government — questions about economic sovereignty and mining governance have become more relevant than ever.

    The mining sector plays a strategic role in Mali’s economy, with gold as its driving force. Yet, governance challenges persist at the heart of the sector’s evolution. In this interview, Mamadou Camara, a mining policy researcher, examines ongoing reforms, the impact of these developments, and the key challenges that must be addressed to ensure the sustainable and equitable exploitation of Mali’s mineral resources.

    What role does the mining sector play in the Malian economy?

    In 2023, the mining sector contributed 644 billion CFA (about US$1 billion) to Mali’s state budget. This represents 21.5% of Mali’s budget for the year and a slight increase from the previous year.

    Gold remains the main product, with a production of 70 tonnes in 2023. Of these revenues, 644 billion CFA came from mining companies (US$1.1 billion), and 3 billion CFA (US$4.7 million) came from social payments — taxes based on employee wages, such as housing tax, flat-rate contributions, and professional training levies.

    This highlights the significant role of the mining sector in the country’s economy. Including gold, the extractive sector contributed 6.3% of Malian GDP in 2023, up from 5.9% in 2022.

    Exports amounted to 500 billion CFA francs (about US$784 million), accounting for three-quarters of the country’s total export revenue. The sector also created 61,023 new jobs in 2023, including 10,000 direct jobs.

    Since 2013, Mali has been facing a security and political crisis that has led to coups d’état and the occupation of part of its territory by rebel groups. Amid this crisis, mining revenues have played a key role in financing major infrastructure projects.

    These investments have built and maintained schools, health centres, roads and bridges, strengthening trade.

    Today, the sector is increasingly seen as a pillar of national sovereignty, a key objective for Malian authorities. In 2023, the government issued 12 new exploration licences, prioritising Malian companies while also granting some permits to foreign firms.

    Estimating the volumes extracted in the informal mining sector remains highly complex. Many actors operate outside formal regulatory frameworks, making precise data collection difficult.

    What are the key changes in Mali’s new mining code and their expected impact?

    The 2023 mining code reflects Mali’s ambition to increase its gains from mining, promote more inclusive local development, and strengthen sovereignty (control) over its natural resources. It emphasises “local content”.

    With the introduction of specific legislation on local content, the new mining code prioritises the inclusion of Malian businesses and workers in the extractive sector.

    The law sets clear guidelines for their participation and representation.

    This initiative could boost local employment and strengthen the national economy. The authorities want Malians to directly feel the benefits of mining. Mining operators are now required to contribute 0.75% of their quarterly revenue to a local development fund. The new code also revises tax exemptions, particularly for fuel, to maximise state revenue.

    As a strategic move, Mali now aims to increase its stake in mining projects. The state is set to secure an initial 10% share in any project, and it may get an additional 20% during the early years of production.

    With 5% allocated to the Malian private sector, the total share could reach 35%, compared to the current 20%. This approach is expected to generate an additional 500 billion CFA francs (approximately US$784 million) for the national budget.

    Mali has also restructured the duration and terms for granting mining licences. The new code allows for better resource exploitation. Large mines are now granted renewable permits for 12 years, while exploration licences are issued for a maximum of nine years.

    Before the new mining code was adopted in 2023, exploration licences were granted for an initial period of three years, with the possibility of two renewals of three years each, totalling a maximum duration of nine years.

    These changes aim to encourage more intensive and structured resource exploration.

    What are the main challenges facing Mali’s mining sector?

    The rise of the mining industry has brought both benefits and challenges. To manage these, the players involved have decided to develop a community development policy. This approach aims to create income opportunities while mitigating potential negative effects, such as environmental damage caused by mining operations.

    Adaptation strategies are essential. These include improving access to financing, creating joint economic activities, and ensuring the security of mining zones. Other key areas are land management, housing, healthcare and schooling, as well as supporting public policies, programmes and civil society initiatives.

    Artisanal gold mining has environmental impacts: it causes deforestation and pollution. Cutting trees destroys wildlife habitats, harms useful plant species and weakens the soil.

    Pollution is another major concern. Chemicals contaminate water, soil, plants, animals and people. Air pollution is common due to overcrowding around mining sites.

    The mining industry affects the economy, environment and society. It is a very important source of revenue for the country and it provides direct and indirect jobs to many people through the provision of services to companies operating in this sector.

    To limit harm, mining communities should focus on four goals:

    • increase productivity by building the capacity of stakeholders

    • reduce the socio-economic vulnerability of local communities

    • strengthen stakeholders’ resilience to the effects of mining industry development

    • improve biodiversity conservation and mitigate environmental degradation.

    How can Mali improve mining governance and sustainability?

    The new mining code already improves governance by addressing the legitimate expectations of Mali’s population and government. It promotes a more responsible approach to managing the sector.

    This code ensures that mining benefits are shared fairly among all stakeholders, including local communities, authorities and mining companies.

    Mali is rich in mineral resources. The country has vast untapped potential throughout its territory. However, security issues in the north hinder exploration and mining activities. Some areas remain unassigned to companies due to ongoing insecurity.

    Mamadou Camara is a member a political party in Mali.

    ref. Mining Mali: how policy changes are reshaping the sector – https://theconversation.com/mining-mali-how-policy-changes-are-reshaping-the-sector-249232

    MIL OSI – Global Reports