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Category: Global

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump and South Africa: what is white victimhood, and how is it linked to white supremacy?

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Nicky Falkof, Professor, University of the Witwatersrand

    American president Donald Trump has issued an executive order to withdraw aid from South Africa. He was reacting to what he has called the South African government’s plan to “seize ethnic minority Afrikaners’ agricultural property without compensation”. Afrikaners are an ethnic and linguistic community of white South Africans whose home language is Afrikaans.

    Trump’s outrage is based on a misinterpretation of a new law – the Expropriation Act which came into effect in January 2025.

    Trump’s action, amplified by provocative comments from billionaire Elon Musk, has reignited debate about the concept of “white victimhood”. We asked Nicky Falkof, who has researched the idea of white victimhood, for her insights.

    What does ‘white victimhood’ mean?

    White victimhood refers to a powerful set of beliefs that treats white people as special and different, but also as uniquely at risk. Within this narrative white people see themselves, and are sometimes seen by others, as extraordinary victims, whose exposure to violence or vulnerability is more concerning and important than anyone else’s.

    White victimhood is usually speculative. It relates not to actual events that have happened, but to white people’s feelings of being threatened or unsafe. Entire political agendas develop around the idea that white people must be protected because they face exceptional threats, which are not being taken seriously by a contemporary world order that fails to value whiteness.

    This is by no means particular to South Africa; we see it wherever whiteness is predominant. Indeed, ideas about white victimhood play a significant role in the popularity of Trump, whose call to “make America great again” harks back to an idealised past where white people (particularly men) could easily dominate the nation, the workplace and the home.



    Read more:
    Donald Trump, white victimhood and the South African far-right

    The South African case is important because it plays a central role in global white supremacist claims. These mythologies claim that white South Africans, specifically Afrikaners, are the canary in the coalmine: that the alleged oppression they are facing is a blueprint for what will happen to all white people if they don’t “fight back”.

    What is its history?

    We can trace this idea back to the start of the colonial project. In 1660 Dutch East India Company administrator Jan van Riebeeck planted a hedge of bitter almond shrubs to separate his trading station from the rest of South Africa’s Cape. This hedge was part of a defensive barrier intended to keep indigenous people out of the Dutch trading post, which had been built on top of ancient Khoikhoi grazing routes.

    On a practical level, van Riebeeck’s hedge was meant to shield Dutch settlers and livestock from Khoikhoi raiders. On a philosophical level, the hedge situated the invaders as the “real” victims, who desperately needed protection from the violence and wildness of Africa. The bitter almond hedge is still seen as an enduring symbol of white supremacy in the country.



    Read more:
    Racism in South Africa: why the ANC has failed to dismantle patterns of white privilege

    This early paranoia and securitisation has had a significant effect on white South African culture and anxiety. White people who can afford to do so barricade themselves in gated communities and boomed-off suburban streets, behind high walls topped with razor wire, on the assumption that they are the primary victims of South Africa’s crime rate.

    In what ways has victimhood been used over the centuries or decades?

    Ideas about white victimhood have played a role in many of South Africa’s most influential social formations.

    The 1930s saw a major panic around “poor whites”, which led to commissions of inquiry, upliftment programmes and other attempts at social engineering. The people and institutions behind these initiatives weren’t concerned about poverty in South Africa in general, even though it was becoming more of a problem as the population urbanised. Their only interest was in poverty among white people, drawing on the assumption that it’s wrong or abnormal for white people to be poor, and that this needed to be urgently remedied.



    Read more:
    Afrikaner identity in post-apartheid South Africa remains stuck in whiteness

    These moves were not simply about philanthropy and offering better life chances to poor people; they were about protecting the boundaries of whiteness. Poor whites were seen as a threat to the establishment because they proved that whiteness wasn’t inherently superior.

    More recently, the victimhood narrative has been a central part of the panic around farm murders and claims of “white genocide”, an old idea that has been popularised and spread online.

    Rural violence is a huge problem in South Africa that deserves a strong response. But white people are far from its only casualties. Indeed, violent crime affects pretty much everyone in South Africa. When the deaths of white people are explained as part of a targeted genocide undertaken on the basis of race, the message is that they matter more than the deaths of everyone else.



    Read more:
    Damon Galgut’s Booker-winning novel probes white South Africa and the land issue

    Again, this suggests a kind of naturalisation of violence and harm. When terrible things happen to other people they simply happen and are not remarked on. It’s only when white people are affected that they become a pressing issue.

    Has it helped white South Africans? Has it been effective as a mobilising tool?

    White victimhood, like the racial anxiety it is part of, is not good for white people. It doesn’t keep them safer or help them to live better lives.

    That said, it’s been quite effective as a mobilising tool. The apartheid-era National Party was skilled at using white fear for political gain. Its communications constantly played on white fears of the swart gevaar, the “black danger”, which encapsulated the powerful belief that whites were more at risk from black people than vice versa, despite all evidence to the contrary.



    Read more:
    Violent crime in South Africa happens mostly in a few hotspots: police resources should focus there – criminologist

    Similarly, contemporary organisations like the Afrikaner “minority rights” pressure group AfriForum and the Afrikaans trade union Solidarity activate and manipulate white people’s senses of extraordinary victimhood. This drives them further into a defensive position, where everything from farm murders and road name changes to the National Health Insurance bill is designed to attack them personally.

    White support for these kinds of organisations and the political positions they espouse, whether overtly or covertly, is at least in part driven by the effective manipulation of white victimhood.

    How effective is it still?

    It remains disturbingly powerful. The architecture of white supremacy depends on the idea that white people are extraordinary victims. This is the driving notion beneath the great replacement theory, a far-right conspiracy theory claiming that Jews and non-white foreigners are plotting to “replace” whites. It also underpins violent reactions to the global migration crisis and the rise of populism in the north.



    Read more:
    What’s behind violence in South Africa: a sociologist’s perspective

    I don’t think it’s going too far to say that whiteness as a social construction is intrinsically tied to victimhood. The idea that whiteness actually makes people more rather than less vulnerable is likely to remain a central part of white people’s collective psychic imaginary for some time.

    Nicky Falkof receives funding from the South African National Research Foundation.

    – ref. Trump and South Africa: what is white victimhood, and how is it linked to white supremacy? – https://theconversation.com/trump-and-south-africa-what-is-white-victimhood-and-how-is-it-linked-to-white-supremacy-249648

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump White House’s disengagement from HIV/AIDS response could have lethal consequences

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Yolaine Frossard de Saugy, PhD Candidate, International Relations, McGill University

    With the endless stream of announcements, reversals, measures and countermeasures coming from the new administration of United States President Donald Trump, it has become difficult to make sense of what is just noise or opening negotiation offers and what constitutes actual policy change.

    Unfortunately, in the case of the global response against HIV/AIDS, it seems the attacks go beyond bluster.

    The methods used in the fight against HIV/AIDS have long been disputed, but overall commitment to the response was one of the few deeply bipartisan endeavours left, until now. Undercutting this decades-long consensus would mean endangering millions of lives.

    U.S. role in global HIV/AIDS response

    As a PhD candidate in international relations working on the politics of the response to HIV/AIDS, I am very aware of the central role that the U.S. has played in building and sustaining a global response to the epidemic in the past 25 years.

    The U.S. is the largest provider of funds for HIV/AIDS programs worldwide. It does so mainly through the bilateral President’s Emergency Program for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) as well as through its contribution to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Overall U.S. funding for global AIDS reached $7 billion in 2020, 2021 and 2022. PEPFAR alone is estimated to provide treatment to 20 million people.

    The U.S. is also a fundamental participant in HIV/AIDS research, including through the work of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH), as well as USAID.

    All of this involvement has already been dangerously jeopardized by the actions taken by the White House since Trump took office for his second term.

    Many activities of the CDC and NIH have been halted. Funding for PEPFAR was caught in the freeze on foreign aid announced in January. Though an exemption was later made and the order has since been blocked by a federal judge, it has already forced recipients of aid to lay off personnel and close clinics and programs in places like Kenya and South Africa.

    USAID, the primary implementer of bilateral HIV/AIDS funds, is at risk of being dismantled.

    Current changes

    The chaos wrought by these measures has impacted the response to HIV/AIDS in deep ways, even if they may be contested or reversed by the courts and Congress.

    The uncertainty in itself is damaging for programs that need reliable funding and long-term planning, not to mention the clinical trials that have been brutally interrupted. What’s more, there are indications the Trump administration and other Republicans have abandoned the longstanding commitment to the response itself, which may lead to irreparable damage.

    American involvement in the global response to HIV/AIDS has long been shaped by domestic politics. Most notably, PEPFAR’s first rounds of funding were deeply constrained by the views of George W. Bush’s evangelical constituency, including in its focus on abstinence as prevention and denial of funding for sex workers.

    But the overall commitment to fighting HIV/AIDS had enjoyed bipartisan support for over two decades. Even during the first Trump administration, the U.S. maintained its involvement, though this was also due to Congress’s resistance to the White House’s attempts at reducing funding.

    There are indications that things might be different this time. Entire pages on HIV/AIDS have disappeared from government websites.

    The Heritage Foundation, the conservative think-tank behind the potential blueprint for Trump’s government known as Project 2025, has referred to HIV/AIDS as a lifestyle disease, like tobacco consumption. This language is reminiscent of the 1980s playbook of opponents on AIDS action and negates both the nature of the epidemic and the realities of those who live with the virus, casting doubts on the need to engage meaningfully with the response.

    Most ominously, the last reauthorization of PEPFAR in 2024 was limited to one year instead of the customary five, as some Republican representatives sought to end it altogether. This means the entire program is to be re-examined this March with no guarantee of how the debates will unfold, especially in the current climate.



    Read more:
    As the United States disavows the World Health Organization, Canada must double down on its support

    Ultimately most will depend on Congress, including the amount pledged by the U.S. to the Global Fund at its replenishment conference sometime this year.

    Its decisions will be the real test of the depth of change on this matter, though everything that has unfolded so far hints at a far-reaching shattering of the consensus. If conservative Republicans maintain their pressure on PEPFAR, the program could be significantly diminished, and it is unlikely that a White House that withdrew from the World Health Organization on day one will act decisively to save it or insist on a sustained contribution to the Global Fund.

    Consequences of U.S. disengagement

    The consequences of a U.S. retreat from the global response to HIV/AIDS would be immense.

    In the short-term, millions of people would lose access to the treatment they depend on for their survival. In the long term, shrinking American funding would undermine health systems around the world and risk the resurgence of the pandemic and the rise of resistant virus strains.

    This would jeopardize 40 years of progress, returning us to a time when AIDS was considered a key security risk and threat to development.

    Even if funding is maintained, all of this shows that for the next few years the U.S. is unlikely to be reliable. This means others will have to take up the leadership to ensure the worst-case scenario is avoided.

    Among these, Canada could have a crucial role to play. It has long been a key entity in its own right — the seventh largest contributor to the Global Fund — though Ottawa has remained discreet in this area so far. Washington’s withdrawal from the field may force it to step into a more visible role and contribute to reframe Canada’s international involvement.

    Yolaine Frossard de Saugy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump White House’s disengagement from HIV/AIDS response could have lethal consequences – https://theconversation.com/trump-white-houses-disengagement-from-hiv-aids-response-could-have-lethal-consequences-249261

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Repatriation to Indigenous groups is more than law, it’s human rights − an archaeologist describes the day that lesson hit home

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Christopher Wolff, Associate Professor of Anthropology, University at Albany, State University of New York

    Leola One Feather of the Oglala Sioux Tribe observes as Native American artifacts are photographed at the Founders Museum in Barre, Mass., in 2022, before their return. AP Photo/Philip Marcelo

    As an archaeologist, you picture yourself traveling to some remote location, digging into the ground, and returning to a lab in a university or museum to study the remains of past civilizations, with hopes of answering important questions.

    In contrast, I’ve often found myself working to return those remains to their rightful cultures. Repatriation is the process of returning ancestral human remains and important objects to descendant populations. Since the passing of the National Museum of the American Indian Act in 1989 and the Native American Graves Protection and Repatriation Act in 1990, it has become an increasingly important part of archaeological practice, yet about 110,000 ancestors remain in collections.

    This work is about more than legal obligations. To many researchers such as myself, it is a matter of human rights.

    When first enacted, these laws were controversial among archaeologists. Much of this anxiety stemmed from worries about losing access to research opportunities. Some concerns were shaped by legal battles surrounding the remains of “Kennewick Man,” whom Indigenous people refer to as the “Ancient One.” This man’s remains were found in Washington state in 1996 and dated to over 8,000 years ago. Scientists won the legal right to study them, in opposition to local tribal nations’ requests, until a 2016 law returned the remains of the individual to those groups.

    Over time, many archaeologists have seen that while repatriation requirements limit research in some ways, in others they have been beneficial and improved aspects of archaeologists’ relationships with Indigenous communities.

    More importantly, repatriation laws have served as a partial remedy for the historical trauma of those peoples.

    This is not an idea I was exposed to as a graduate student. Like many others in my field, I had virtually no exposure to the actual process of repatriation, even more than a decade after the Native American Graves Protection and Repatriation Act, called NAGPRA, was signed into law. Rather, it is one that developed while I served as a repatriation archaeologist for the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History from 2009-2011, and in the following years as a professor of archaeology.

    Dancers from the Haida Tribe perform at the Field Museum in Chicago in 2003, celebrating the return of Haida human remains to their descendants.
    AP Photo/M. Spencer Green

    Careful process

    Repatriation includes important steps that are required by law, as well as other ethical considerations. First, any human remains or objects that fall within certain categories – such as sacred objects, or funerary objects – should be stored where they can be properly cared for with respect. For instance, Indigenous groups may ask that tobacco be placed with the remains, as an offering to their ancestors’ spirits.

    Researchers must compile information about these human remains into an itemized list containing the number of individuals and objects, brief descriptions of them, where they were found, and how they came into the institution’s possession. This list is then provided to representatives of communities that may be descendants, or possible living relatives.

    If those communities decide to request the remains’ return, then the formal process of assessing “cultural affiliation” begins. This is a thorough analysis of any evidence demonstrating a connection between the remains or objects and a particular group today. Evidence can include many things, including physical characteristics of the human remains or objects, written documents, oral history, or distinct cultural attributes of the artifacts.

    Legally, this process is required only for federally recognized Indigenous groups. However, institutions can choose to apply the same consideration to other communities if they believe it is appropriate, such as the hundreds of Indigenous groups that lack federal recognition.

    The analysis is officially submitted to the national NAGPRA database, and a public notice is posted so that other interested parties could potentially make a claim on the remains or objects.

    If researchers confirm there is a cultural affiliation, after a 90-day waiting period an official repatriation statement is filed with the national office. Researchers then consult with the requesting parties about how to conduct the physical return. What happens next is in the hands of the affiliated groups, and their wishes must be accommodated.

    Kurt Riley, then the governor of the Pueblo of Acoma, speaks at the Smithsonian National Museum of the American Indian in 2016, protesting a French auction house’s plans to sell Indigenous artifacts.
    AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

    Unfortunately, many remains have already suffered significant damage by the time repatriation begins. A great many of them have sat on shelves unstudied, sometimes for decades or longer – even those that came into the collection legally and in collaboration with Indigenous groups.

    Powerful moment

    One such individual was the key to a major shift in how I viewed repatriation – no longer as a research hindrance but as a question of human rights. Out of respect for the Indigenous nation, I cannot discuss specifics – only a broader picture of this “aha” moment.

    One day at work, I found myself looking at an individual who had died several centuries ago, but was so well preserved that his death looked much more recent. It can be too easy to look at a collection of human bones and forget that they were once a living person, despite trying to teach students otherwise. However, that day I looked down and clearly saw a man: his face painted, his hair neatly done, earrings in his ears, laid out in a beautiful box.

    Obviously, whoever tended to him after his death had taken great care, placing him in a sacred place where he had every expectation that he would be left undisturbed. He could not have perceived that centuries later someone would collect his remains and ship him away from his traditional lands to be studied in a museum.

    That hit home for me. I would not want someone to go against my final wishes, or those of my family, and felt this man should have the same human rights I have in that regard.

    I regret it took me so long to see that. Ever since, I’ve worked hard to make up for that by teaching my students to see the past full of people with expectations, hopes and emotions, and to extend ethical obligations to them as we would want applied to us. Archaeology is about learning from the past, and working in repatriation and meeting this individual provided me with one of the best lessons of my career.

    Christopher Wolff does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Repatriation to Indigenous groups is more than law, it’s human rights − an archaeologist describes the day that lesson hit home – https://theconversation.com/repatriation-to-indigenous-groups-is-more-than-law-its-human-rights-an-archaeologist-describes-the-day-that-lesson-hit-home-247763

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: China flexes its media muscle in Africa – encouraging positive headlines as part of a soft power agenda

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Mitchell Gallagher, Ph.D Candidate in Political Science, Wayne State University

    An African journalist films President Xi Jinping delivering an opening ceremony speech for the China-Africa forum in Beijing in September 2024. AP Photo/Andy Wong

    Every year, China’s minister of foreign affairs embarks on what has now become a customary odyssey across Africa. The tradition began in the late 1980s and sees Beijing’s top diplomat visit several African nations to reaffirm ties. The most recent visit, by Foreign Minister Wang Yi, took place in mid-January 2025 and included stops in Namibia, the Republic of the Congo, Chad and Nigeria.

    For over two decades, China’s burgeoning influence in Africa was symbolized by grand displays of infrastructural might. From Nairobi’s gleaming towers to expansive ports dotting the continent’s shorelines, China’s investments on the continent have surged, reaching over US$700 billion by 2023 under the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s massive global infrastructure development strategy.

    But in recent years, Beijing has sought to expand beyond roads and skyscrapers and has made a play for the hearts and minds of African people. With a deft mix of persuasion, power and money, Beijing has turned to African media as a potential conduit for its geopolitical ambitions.

    Partnering with local outlets and journalist-training initiatives, China has expanded China’s media footprint in Africa. Its purpose? To change perceptions and anchor the idea of Beijing as a provider of resources and assistance, and a model for development and governance.

    The ploy appears to be paying dividends, with evidence of sections of the media giving favorable coverage to China. But as someone researching the reach of China’s influence overseas, I am beginning to see a nascent backlash against pro-Beijing reporting in countries across the continent.

    The media charm offensive

    China’s approach to Africa rests mainly on its use of “soft power,” manifested through things like the media and cultural programs. Beijing presents this as “win-win cooperation” – a quintessential Chinese diplomatic phrase mixing collaboration with cultural diplomacy.

    Key to China’s media approach in Africa are two institutions: the China Global Television Network (CGTN) Africa and Xinhua News Agency.

    CGTN Africa, which was set up in 2012, offers a Chinese perspective on African news. The network produces content in multiple languages, including English, French and Swahili, and its coverage routinely portrays Beijing as a constructive partner, reporting on infrastructure projects, trade agreements and cultural initiatives. Moreover, Xinhua News Agency, China’s state news agency, now boasts 37 bureaus on the continent.

    By contrast, Western media presence in Africa remains comparatively limited. The BBC, long embedded due to the United Kingdom’s colonial legacy, still maintains a large footprint among foreign outlets, but its influence is largely historical rather than expanding. And as Western media influence in Africa has plateaued, China’s state-backed media has grown exponentially. This expansion is especially evident in the digital domain. On Facebook, for example, CGTN Africa commands a staggering 4.5 million followers, vastly outpacing CNN Africa, which has 1.2 million — a stark indicator of China’s growing soft power reach.

    China’s zero-tariff trade policy with 33 African countries showcases how it uses economic policies to mold perceptions. And state-backed media outlets like CGTN Africa and Xinhua are central to highlighting such projects and pushing an image of China as a benevolent partner.

    Stories of an “all-weather” or steadfast China-Africa partnership are broadcast widely, and the coverage frequently depicts the grand nature of Chinese infrastructure projects. Amid this glowing coverage, the labor disputes, environmental devastation or debt traps associated with some Chinese-built infrastructure are less likely to make headlines.

    Questions of media veracity notwithstanding, China’s strategy is bearing fruit. A Gallup poll from April 2024 showed China’s approval ratings climbing in Africa as U.S. ratings dipped. Afrobarometer, a pan-African research organization, further reports that public opinion of China in many African countries is positively glowing, an apparent validation of China’s discourse engineering.

    Further, studies have shown that pro-Beijing media influences perceptions. A 2023 survey of Zimbabweans found that those who were exposed to Chinese media were more likely to have a positive view of Beijing’s economic activities in the country.

    China’s foreign minister Wang Yi, center, holds hands with his counterparts, Senegal’s Yassine Fall, left, and the Republic of the Congo’s Jean-Claude Gakosso, after a joint news conference.
    AP Photo/Andy Wong

    Co-opting local voices

    The effectiveness of China’s media strategy becomes especially apparent in the integration of local media. Through content-sharing agreements, African outlets have disseminated Beijing’s editorial line and stories from Chinese state media, often without the due diligence of journalistic skepticism.

    Meanwhile, StarTimes, a Chinese media company, delivers a steady stream of curated depictions of translated Chinese movies, TV shows and documentaries across 30 countries in Africa.

    But China is not merely pushing its viewpoint through African channels. It’s also taking a lead role in training African journalists, thousands of whom have been lured by all-expenses-paid trips to China under the guise of “professional development.” On such junkets, they receive training that critics say obscures the distinction between skill-building and propaganda, presenting them with perspectives conforming to Beijing’s line.

    ‘Win-win’ promises

    Ethiopia exemplifies how China’s infrastructure investments and media influence have fostered a largely favorable perception of Beijing. State media outlets, often staffed by journalists trained in Chinese-run programs, consistently frame China’s role as one of selfless partnership. Coverage of projects like the Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway line highlights the benefits, while omitting reports on the substandard labor conditions tied to such projects — an approach reflective of Ethiopia’s media landscape, where state-run outlets prioritize economic development narratives and rely heavily on Xinhua as a primary news source.

    In Angola, Chinese oil companies extract considerable resources and channel billions into infrastructure projects. The local media, again regularly staffed by journalists who have accepted invitations to visit China, often portray Sino-Angolan relations in glowing terms. Allegations of corruption, the displacement of local communities and environmental degradation are relegated to side notes in the name of common development.

    The war for Africa’s media soul

    Despite all of the Chinese influence, media perspectives in Africa are far from uniformly pro-Beijing.

    In Kenya, voices of dissent are beginning to rise, and media professionals immune to Beijing’s allure are probing the true costs of Chinese financial undertakings. In South Africa, media watchdogs are sounding alarms, pointing to a gradual attrition of press freedoms that come packaged with promises of growth and prosperity. In Ghana, anxiety about Chinese media influence permeates more than the journalism sector, as officials have raised concerns about the implications of Chinese media cooperation agreements. Wariness in Ghana became especially apparent when local journalists started reporting that Chinese-produced content was being prioritized over domestic stories in state media.

    Beneath the surface of China’s well-publicized projects and media offerings, and the African countries or organizations that embrace Beijing’s line, a significant countervailing force exists that challenges uncritical representations and pursues rigorous journalism.

    Yet as CGTN Africa and Xinhua become entrenched in African media ecosystems, a pertinent question comes to the forefront: Will Africa’s journalists and press be able to uphold their impartiality and retain intellectual independence?

    As China continues to make strategic inroads in Africa, it’s a fair question.

    Mitchell Gallagher does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. China flexes its media muscle in Africa – encouraging positive headlines as part of a soft power agenda – https://theconversation.com/china-flexes-its-media-muscle-in-africa-encouraging-positive-headlines-as-part-of-a-soft-power-agenda-245804

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Will the Gaza ceasefire hold? Where does Trump’s takeover proposal stand? Expert Q&A

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin

    As the deadline approaches for the end of phase one of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, the likelihood of the agreement making it to the scheduled second phase on March 1 look increasingly remote. Middle East expert, Scott Lucas, addresses the key questions.

    What are the chances of the ceasefire holding into phase two?

    Even before Donald Trump’s proposal for the clearing and redevelopment – what would amount to the ethnic cleansing – of Gaza, an agreement to move from phase one to phase two at the start of March was an increasingly remote possibility.

    We almost did not have a first phase. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu had held out against a deal for months, and he was under pressure from two hard-right ministers – finance minister Bezalel Smotrich and national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir – not to proceed.

    In the end, Netanyahu acceded because of families seeking the return of their relatives held hostage by Hamas, and because of an approach by Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff.

    Smotrich stayed in the cabinet while Ben-Gvir left but his party said it would continue support for the government. However, both demanded that there be no second phase. They called instead military action to eradicate Hamas and the resettlement of the population of GAza – voluntary or otherwise.

    In the next phase, the Israeli military is supposed to withdraw fully from Gaza while Palestinian governance is restored in the Strip. Israel and the US will demand that Hamas will leave power – indeed, the Israelis may call for Hamas leaders to leave the territory – and Hamas will refuse to do so.

    Trump’s demand for an end of “occupation” of Gaza, not by the Israelis but by Gazans, confirmed the demise of the process. There is no chance that Hamas negotiators will agree to a “solution” in which most if not all residents are evicted.

    That is why Trump, using the pretext of Hamas obstruction of phase one, stopped portraying himself as a “peacemaker” on Monday. Instead, he proclaimed: “All bets are off and let hell break out” — in effect, returning to a blank cheque for Israel’s military action, blockade of humanitarian aid, and mass killing across Gaza.

    Is Donald Trump serious about redeveloping Gaza?

    Many media outlets have been negligent in excusing Trump’s statements by saying alternatively that he is not serious or that he is “thinking outside the box” with his egregious statements.

    Trump’s proposal for “development” of Gaza, clearing out the population, was not just a thought bubble. In his first term, he repeatedly spoke of North Korea’s “great beaches” and “waterfront property” as a prime location for condos and hotels. In March 2024, his son-in-law Jared Kushner turned to the Middle East, saying: “Gaza’s waterfront property could be very valuable… From Israel’s perspective I would do my best to move the people out and then clean it up.”

    Last summer, the Trump team asked Joseph Pelzman, a professor of economic and international affairs at George Washington University to propose a plan for the Strip. He summarised: “You have to destroy the whole place, you have to restart from scratch … It requires that the place be completely emptied out. I mean, literally emptied out.”

    Within a week of returning to the White House on January 20, Trump was telling reporters that Gaza’s civilians should be removed from the “demolition site”. Just over a week later, alongside Netanyahu, he expanded on the declaration – reportedly in a statement written by Kushner.

    What about international law?

    Trump’s proposal is a clear violation of international law. The Geneva conventions stipulate that civilians should not be transferred outside of their territory unless it is “impossible” to do otherwise.

    UN spokesman Stéphane Dujarric told reporters: “Any forced displacement of people is tantamount to ethnic cleansing.”

    But, the Trump administration does not appear to care about international law. Two days after his appearance with Netanyahu, Trump signed an executive order sanctioning the International Criminal Court.

    Indeed, the administration does not believe it should face any legal oversight in the US. As Trump and Elon Musk attempt to destroy US agencies, with mass firings and seizure of records that may be unconstitutional and illegal, the US vice-president, J.D. Vance, maintains: “Judges aren’t allowed to control the executive’s legitimate power.” Trump, demanding the impeachment of a judge who ruled against the unauthorised access to records, said: “No judge should, frankly, be allowed to make that kind of a decision.”

    Does the US have sufficient support to do this?

    Absolutely not, especially if Trump tries to fulfil his declaration that the US should “own” Gaza. Apart from Israel, no country has given support to Trump’s proposal. And most Americans, even Trump backers, would be loath to have “ownership” which required intervention by US troops.

    As for the countries Trump wants to send Palestinians to, they are vehement in their opposition. Within hours of Trump’s February 4 statement, he got a firm rebuttal from Saudi Arabia. Riyadh cited “the Kingdom’s firm and supportive positions on the rights of the Palestinian people” and reinforced its recent shift to “firm and unwavering” support of a Palestinian state.

    The foreign ministry emphasised that this was the position of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman and noted his phone call with King Abdullah of Jordan as a sign of solidarity.

    After Netanyahu said the Saudis “have plenty of territory” for a Palestinian state, Riyadh denounced the “extremist, occupying mentality” that seeks to expel Palestinians from Gaza.

    Egyptian foreign minister Badr Abdelatty told US secretary of state Marco Rubio on Monday in Washington that Arab states rejected Trump’s pitch. Abdelatty stressed the importance of Gaza’s reconstruction while Palestinians remained there.

    And, on the eve of King Abdullah’s visit to Washington, Jordan expressed its “rejection of any attempts to annex land and displace the Palestinians”.

    How do you see this developing in the foreseeable future?

    Trump and the Israelis will now shift attention to Hamas as an existential threat who cannot be treated as a partner in a phase two ceasefire.

    Phase one is due to expire on March 1. I predict that Israel will return to its open-ended war across Gaza, probably sooner than that.

    And Trump, who only recently presented himself as a “peacemaker”, will give unconditional backing – while bemoaning that Gazans, up to 90% of them displaced from their homes, still won’t leave the Strip.

    Scott Lucas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Will the Gaza ceasefire hold? Where does Trump’s takeover proposal stand? Expert Q&A – https://theconversation.com/will-the-gaza-ceasefire-hold-where-does-trumps-takeover-proposal-stand-expert-qanda-249751

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: From chain-smoking to binge-drinking, Bridget Jones’s habits would have been terrible for her health

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dan Baumgardt, Senior Lecturer, School of Physiology, Pharmacology and Neuroscience, University of Bristol

    She chain-smoked her way through romance and heart-break and binge-drank Chardonnay until it went out of fashion (and then came back in again) – and now Bridget Jones is back.

    Mad about the Boy is the fourth and final film in the Bridget Jones series. It’s almost 30 years since Helen Fielding hit the bestseller lists with the accident-prone, self-deprecating eponymous heroine of Bridget Jones’s Diary. Tales of “emotional f-ckwits” and “really bloody enormous pants” resonated with readers and the film adaptations cemented Bridget Jones’s status as a well-loved character.

    Fans of the original Bridget Jones’s Diary will remember her daily log of statistics. Many will have read the entries, listing calories, cigarettes and alcohol units consumed, with a nod of recognition. The alcohol-free diet that’s started with fierce determination one day descends into hungover calorific chaos the next. But is Bridget’s lifestyle as loveable in real life as it is on the page and screen?

    Thanks to the handy summary about calorie intake, cigarette count and alcohol units at the end of the original diary, I’ve been able to take a closer look at what her lifestyle might mean in reality. On paper – and on screen – her lifestyle might look like the kind of smoking, drinking, break-up binge eating (and the occasional magic mushroom in Thailand) to which lots of readers and viewers can relate.

    But even the book recognises that Bridget’s lifestyle isn’t sustainable, as it includes a warning and disclaimer. And, the relentless focus on weight and calorie consumption might be a reflection of the social pressure women face, but it’s also been criticised for its potential danger to some of its audience.

    Smoking

    In the original diary, Bridget’s cigarette count for the year is 5,277: around 14-15 a day. In clinical practice, we often standardise this in numbers of “pack-years” of smoking. One pack equals 20 cigarettes, so if you smoke 20 a day for one year, that makes one pack-year. In the case of Bridget, this makes approximately 0.75 pack-years.

    You might think that figure doesn’t seem very high – but add the count from the following year in Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason, plus of all the years before it, and the pack-years start adding up and are more like five, seven, even ten.

    The higher the number of pack-years exposure, the greater the risk of developing an associated disease or complication. For many years, a critical level of ten pack-years or more was associated with significant risk of developing a lung condition called COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), which ranges in severity and can lead to distressing symptoms including persistent coughing, wheezing and shortness of breath.

    But patients with a history of less than ten pack-years exposure may also be at significant risk, which is why some argue this critical level should be lowered.

    What kind of health issues could Bridget face after smoking so much for so long? Smoking is notorious for causing cancer, including lung, bladder, kidney and stomach cancers. Smoking also negatively affects cardiovascular health and fertility and causes gum disease and a variety of other health issues – the list is long.

    In Mad About the Boy, Bridget has kicked the habit, and uses nicotine-replacement therapy to reduce cravings.

    Calories

    Bridget logged her daily calorie count, but she was perhaps not a reliable narrator. Over the course of the year, she calculated that she’d consumed over 11 million calories. “Repulsive,” she states – and also highly unlikely. This total would equate to over 30,000 calories a day, approximately six to ten times more than most competing bodybuilders would consume.

    By the end of Bridget Jones’s Diary, she had gained 5st 2lbs and lost 5st 3lbs, resulting in a net loss of a pound. So broadly speaking what went in, must have matched what energy was consumed. Her starting weight for the year is 9st 3lbs, and taking (for argument’s sake) Renée Zellweger’s 5f 4ins height that gives a body mass index (BMI) of 22.1 – right in the middle of the “normal” BMI range of 18.5 to 25.

    Bridget, as many have pointed out over the years, is certainly not overweight.

    Bridget’s daily weigh-in on the bathroom scale routine may have fed her preoccupation with minor fluctuations. Weight isn’t just a measure of fat, it’s also the body’s water and waste. Measuring weight less frequently is a more effective way to gauge the overall trend of whether weight is going up or down. ## Alcohol

    “I WILL NOT drink more than 14 alcohol units a week,” Bridget writes in the opening of the original diary.

    However, despite 114 hangover-free days, Bridget ends up with annual alcohol consumption of 3,836 units – that’s a weekly intake of around 74 units – much more than the maximum of 14 units recommended for both men and women.



    Read more:
    The hangover in literature, from Shakespeare and Burns to Bridget Jones

    Bridget recognises that she drinks too much and, as seen in her new year’s resolutions, often intends to cut back. In clinical practice, we use the Cage questions to help evaluate whether a patient has issues with alcohol. We might ask, for example, whether the person is annoyed by criticism of their drinking or feels guilty about it? Do they use alcohol as an “eye-opener” in the morning?

    So while Bridget Jones may prove as endearing as ever to audiences this year – and her love life just as chaotic – it’s probably for the best that her lifestyle seems a bit healthier this time around. It would have been awful to have her story end with untimely death by Chardonnay.

    Dan Baumgardt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. From chain-smoking to binge-drinking, Bridget Jones’s habits would have been terrible for her health – https://theconversation.com/from-chain-smoking-to-binge-drinking-bridget-joness-habits-would-have-been-terrible-for-her-health-249395

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sofas that self-assemble when you heat them up? How 4D printing could transform manufacturing

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mahdi Bodaghi, Associate Professor of Smart Materials & Manufacturing, Nottingham Trent University

    Flat-pack, but not as we know it. This is an AI image created by OpenAI’s Dall-E., CC BY-SA

    Imagine buying a flat sheet from a furniture store that changes into a sofa when you heat it with a hairdryer. Or consider the value of a stent that precisely expands inside a patient’s artery, adapting to their unique anatomy.

    Welcome to 4D printing, a frontier in material and manufacturing science that has been rapidly expanding over the past decade. While 3D printing has captured global attention for its ability to create objects layer by layer, 4D printing adds the element of time.

    It involves 3D-printing adaptable objects from materials such as polymers or alloys that can bend, twist or transform entirely when they come into contact with heat or moisture. By moving beyond the constrictions of static designs, it opens up remarkable possibilities in areas such as medicine, aerospace, robotics and construction.

    I was recently the lead author on a comprehensive report published in the journal of Smart Materials and Structures, charting the advances and challenges in this field. We outlined this industry’s potential, offering a vision of a future where smart materials redefine design and manufacturing.

    Here are some more of the main fields in which 4D printing could be transformative:

    1. Healthcare

    Like the stent I mentioned earlier, 4D printing raises the possibility of creating implants and prosthetics that adapt to patients’ needs in real time. Research teams working on these innovations include the Biomet4D project, coordinated by the IMDEA Materials Institute in Madrid, which is developing smart, biodegradable metallic implants for people with seriously damaged or defective bones. The implants can change shape and expand as the bone grows, supporting it much more effectively than a static implant.

    Another area of focus is smarter ways to give patients drugs. For example, a team of researchers based at China’s Jilin University have created 4D-printed hydrogel capsules whose outer structure stays intact inside a patient’s body until it reaches a particular temperature, such as when there is an infection, meaning the drug only takes effect when it’s required. This could be useful in situations where it’s beneficial to release a drug into a patient’s body at exactly the right time and location.

    2. Robotics and wearables

    Integrating 4D materials into robotics and wearable devices enables them to adjust their functionality in response to their environment. For instance, researchers at Harvard University’s Wyss Institute have developed self-folding robotic devices based on insights from origami that change shape when exposed to heat. One potential application could involve sending these devices to carry out tasks in environments that are difficult to reach, such as in deep seas or oceans.

    Similarly, scientists at Deakin University in Australia are researching 4D-printing robotic joints with variable stiffness that can help with rehabilitation. For example, an arm could get stiffer when the user tries to pick something up, making it easier for them to lift it.

    3. Exploring the cosmos

    In the extreme conditions of space, adaptability is critical, so again there’s a role for 4D-printed materials. For instance, Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory uses 4D-printed metallic space fabrics.

    These can fold, change shape and adapt to varying thermal and mechanical environments. This makes them suitable for a wide range of space applications, including shielding spacecraft from meteorites, insulating against extreme temperatures and conforming to uneven terrain on Jupiter’s smallest moon, the icy Europa.

    Challenges and opportunities

    The current capabilities of 4D printing are nothing short of remarkable, yet the field still faces significant challenges. While we can now create materials that transform with precision, there’s still more research required to ensure they’re biologically safe and durable for the long term.

    Also, scaling up production to meet industrial demands, particularly for high-resolution designs or nanoscale structures, requires not just new techniques but also new ways of thinking about manufacturing. Cost is another barrier – specialised materials and processes can often prove too expensive at present for widespread use.

    And yet, the promise of 4D printing is tantalising. One of the big attractions is in sustainability. From water pipes that adjust flow rates to buildings that self-regulate carbon dioxide levels, 4D printing creates the potential for adaptive systems that help in this area. A prime example is the Solar Gate, developed by the University of Stuttgart’s Institute for Computational Design and Construction.

    Inspired by the way that pine cones open in response to sunlight, the gate consists of a series of 4D-printed cellulose flaps that can be installed into buildings to open and close in response to certain levels of humidity and temperature. They curl upwards in winter to allow heat in, and flatten in the summer to block direct sunlight. It demonstrates how a building can be made more energy efficient without relying on an external source of power for, say, air conditioning.

    Meanwhile, artificial intelligence is already accelerating progress by optimising the design and behaviour of 4D-printed objects. It is helping researchers to have more precise control over how these smart materials respond under different conditions, without having to rely so much on trial and error.

    This is still a young industry, with limited venture capital investment and a workforce that is only beginning to take shape. But as more research institutions and companies recognise its potential, the pace of innovation should quicken. According to one report, the sector is due to grow at around 35% a year over the next five years.

    We are now developing structures that recover or change their shape on demand at the 4D materials and printing laboratory at Nottingham Trent University and the 4D Printing Society. For example, we’ve already 4D-printed medical stents that can self-expand in response to body temperature (see images below).


    Nottingam Trent University, CC BY-SA

    We’re also developing materials for boat fenders and car bumpers whose shape can be restored by adding heat, as a way of removing dents, as well as shape-adaptive finger splints for broken bones, and self-assembling, extra-comfortable furniture.

    So, the next time you marvel at the capabilities of 3D printing, remember: the future lies in 4D printing, where materials come alive and redefine the possibilities of tomorrow.

    Mahdi Bodaghi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sofas that self-assemble when you heat them up? How 4D printing could transform manufacturing – https://theconversation.com/sofas-that-self-assemble-when-you-heat-them-up-how-4d-printing-could-transform-manufacturing-246899

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Technofossils: how the pollution of today will become the fossils of the far future

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jan Zalasiewicz, Professor of Palaeobiology, University of Leicester

    dimitris_k / shutterstock

    How might you make your mark on the world forever? Write a play more timeless than Shakespeare, or compose music to out-do Mozart, or score the winning goal in the next World Cup final, perhaps?

    There’s an easier way of leaving an indelible mark on our planet. Just finish a soft drink and toss the can (and the remains of the chicken dinner that went with it), ditch last year’s impulse purchases from your wardrobe, resurface that old patio, upgrade your mobile phone … simply carry on with everyday life, that is, and you’ll likely leave a fascinating legacy. It might last a billion years.

    We’re palaeontologists, and have spent our careers looking at the fossil record of the deep past, puzzling out how those magnificent animal and plant relics have been preserved as dinosaur bones, the carapaces of ancient crustaceans, lustrous spiralled ammonites, petrified flower petals and many more. Often they still have exquisite detail intact after millions of years.

    We’ve now turned our attention to the myriad everyday objects that we make and use, to see what kind of future fossils – we call them technofossils – they will make. We’ve written about this in our new book, Discarded: how technofossils will be our ultimate legacy. Here are some key messages:

    The first things that’ll catch the eye of any far-future palaeontologist are our manufactured objects – buildings, roads, machines and so on. In recent decades, they have rocketed in amount to over a trillion tonnes, to now outweigh all living things on Earth. That’s a lot of raw material for generating future fossils.

    Then, most things we make are designed to be durable, to resist corrosion and decay, and are significantly tougher than the average bone or shell. Just from that they have a head start in the fossilisation stakes.

    Many are new to the Earth. Discarded aluminium cans are everywhere, for instance, but to our planet, they’re a wondrous novelty, as pure aluminium metal is almost unknown in nature. In the past 70 years we’ve made more than 500 million tonnes of the stuff, enough to coat all of the US (and part of Canada) in standard aluminium kitchen foil.

    What’s going to happen to it? Aluminium resists corrosion, but not forever. Buried underground in layers of mud and sand, a can will slowly break down, but often not before there’s a can-shaped impression in these new rocks, lined with microscopic clay crystals newly-grown out of the corroding aluminium.

    Everyday items can be flushed onto a floodplain and be quickly buried under sediments. As they slowly degrade they may leave an impression on the soft muds and silts for future palaeontologists to puzzle over.
    Sarah Gabbott

    Having been shielded from ultraviolet light, the thin plastic liner inside the can may endure too. (Oil-based plastic is even more novel in geological terms, being entirely non-existent until the 20th century). These two materials compressed side-by-side represent future fossil signatures of our time on Earth.

    Billions of fossilised chicken thighs

    But what about bones – the archetypal fossil relic? There will be many of these as future fossils, stark evidence of our species’ domination over others.

    The standard supermarket chicken seems mundane. But it’s now by far the most common bird of all, making up about two-thirds of all bird biomass on Earth, and its abundance in life increases its fossilisation chances after death.

    We stack the odds further by tossing the bones into a plastic bin-bag, that’s then carted to the landfill site to join countless more bones for burial in neatly engineered compartments – also plastic-lined. There, the bones will begin to mummify, another useful step in the road to petrifaction. Our landfills are giant middens of the future and will be stuffed full of the bones of this one species.

    Geologists of the far future may conclude that chickens could only have existed thanks to a more intelligent species.
    dba87 / shutterstock

    These bones – super-sized but weak, riddled with osteoporosis, sometimes fractured and deformed – will tell their own grisly story. Future geologists will puzzle over a suddenly-evolved bird so abundant yet so physically helpless. Will they figure out the story of a broiler chicken genetically
    engineered to feed relentlessly to maximise weight gain, for slaughter just five or six weeks after hatching? We suspect the fossil evidence will be damning.

    Fossilised fleeces

    Fossilizeable fashion is also new. Humans have worn clothes for thousands of years, but archaeological clothes discoveries are rare, because made of natural fibres they are feasted on by clothes moths, microbes and other scavengers. Fossil fur and feathers are rare too, for the same reasons.

    But cheap, cheerful and hyper-abundant polyester fashion is quite different. There’s no need for mothballs with these garments because synthetic plastics are indigestible to most microbes. How long might they last? Some ancient fossil algae have coats of plastic-like polymers, and these have lasted, beautifully preserved, for many millions of years.

    Fossil clothes will surely perplex far-future palaeonologists, though: first to work out their shape from the crumpled and flattened remains, and then to work out what purpose they served. With throwaway fashion, we’re making some eternal puzzles.

    Concrete and computers

    The lumps of concrete from your old patio are not any old rocks. The recipe for concrete, involving furnace-baked lime, is rare on Earth (the minerals involved occasionally form in magma-baked rock), but humans have made it hyper-abundant. There are now more than half a trillion tonnes of concrete on Earth, mostly made since the 1950s – that’s a kilo per square metre averaged over the Earth. And concrete is hard-wearing even by geological standards: most of its bulk is sand and gravel, which have been survivors throughout our planet’s history.

    There’s nothing old about computers and mobile phones, but they are based on the same element – silicon – that makes up the quartz (silicon dioxide) of sand and gravel. A fossilised silicon chip will be tricky to decipher, though: the semiconductors now packed on to them are just nanometres across, tinier than most mineral forms geologists analyse today.

    But the associated paraphernalia, the burgeoning waste of keyboards, monitors, wiring, will form more obvious fossils. The patterns on these, like the QWERTY keyboard, resemble the fossil patterns seized upon by today’s palaeontologists as clues to ancient function. That would depend on the excavators, though: fossil keyboards would make more sense to hyper-evolved rats with five-fingered paws, say, than superintelligent octopuses of the far future.



    Read more:
    What species would become dominant on Earth if humans died out?

    It’s fun to conceptualise like this, and set the human story within the grand perspective of Earth’s history. But there’s a wider meaning. Tomorrow’s future fossils are today’s pollution: unsightly, damaging, often toxic, and ever more of a costly problem. One only has to look at the state of Britain’s rivers and beaches.

    Understanding how fossilisation starts now helps us ask the right questions. When plastic trash is washed out to sea, will it keep travelling or become safely buried, covered by marine sediments? Will the waste in coastal landfill sites stay put, or be exhumed by the waves as sea level rises? The answers will be found in future rocks – but it would help us all to work them out now.

    Sarah Gabbott is affiliated with Green Circle Nature Regeneration Community Interest Company 13084569.

    Jan Zalasiewicz does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Technofossils: how the pollution of today will become the fossils of the far future – https://theconversation.com/technofossils-how-the-pollution-of-today-will-become-the-fossils-of-the-far-future-248815

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The Last Showgirl: Pamela Anderson is perfectly cast in this intimate portrait of womanhood

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Daisy McManaman, PhD Candidate, Centre for Women’s Studies, University of York

    Director Gia Coppola’s The Last Showgirl captures the bittersweet reality of a dreamer who has given everything to a career that will never love her back.

    Pamela Anderson’s Shelley has devoted the past 30 years of her life to the Las Vegas revue Le Razzle Dazzle, a show she proudly describes as embodying “breasts and rhinestones and joy”. But as the show’s run comes to an end, Shelley is forced to confront an uncertain future, aged out of the career she so desperately loves.

    Shelley is a woman out of time. From her pink Motorola Razr phone to her disbelief at the rising price of lemons, she clings to a romanticised vision of the showgirl as an ambassador of Las Vegas glamour.

    But as Le Razzle Dazzle prepares to close and her co-stars, Jodie (Kiernan Shipka) and Mary-Anne (Brenda Song), audition for raunchier, neo-burlesque-inspired productions, both Shelley and the audience question whether the traditional showgirl still has a place in today’s cultural landscape.

    The Last Showgirl explores the multifaceted nature of womanhood, offering an intimate portrait of the women of Las Vegas. It peeks into dressing rooms where, among tables scattered with false eyelashes and stray rhinestones, a performer struggles to balance single motherhood, her cultivated show community and a dream that may no longer have space for her.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Screenwriter Kate Gersten wrote The Last Showgirl after seeing the Las Vegas revue Jubilee! shortly before its closure in 2016.

    As the last traditional showgirl revue on the Vegas strip, Jubilee! was a tribute to glamour and femininity. Jubilee!’s costume designers were Bob Mackie and Pete Menefee, and their original designs also feature in the film. They’re adorned with brightly coloured feathers and shimmering rhinestones so extravagant that they once caused an international Swarovski shortage.

    In The Last Showgirl, these archival Jubilee! costumes become characters in their own right. Their opulent feathers and dazzling crystals create a spectacle on screen, embodying the larger-than-life fantasy of the showgirl.

    As the title card plays, we see close-ups of the craftsmanship behind the showgirl aesthetic – hands caressing plumes, rich fabrics and expanses of rhinestones.

    The Pamela renaissance

    The true star of the film, however, is the woman whose performance shines brighter than the crystals she is adorned in. Anderson’s portrayal of Shelley cuts to the heart of the character, imbuing her with vulnerability that transcends the glittering surface of the showgirl persona.

    The Last Showgirl trailer.

    The Last Showgirl marks Anderson’s first leading film role since the critically panned 1996 film Barb Wire, which earned her a Golden Razzie nomination for worst actress.

    The casting of Anderson as Shelley feels almost kismet. One of the most notable sex symbols of our time, Anderson has recently undergone a cultural renaissance. This has been driven by the Hulu series Pam and Tommy (2022), which focused on the nonconsensual release of Anderson and her then-partner musician Tommy Lee’s sex tape (the series was ironically made without her consent).

    But also Anderson’s own work in the 2023 Netflix documentary Pamela, A Love Story and her memoir, Love, Pamela, which was released the same year.



    Read more:
    Don’t watch Pam and Tommy – the series turns someone’s trauma into entertainment

    Anderson’s status as a sex symbol frequently stripped her of autonomy. In Love, Pamela, she states that she views her multiple appearances in Playboy as “an honour”, but also acknowledges that they’ve led some to treat her without respect.

    She recalls being told in a deposition regarding her sex tape that she had “no right to privacy because I’d appeared in Playboy”. Both Anderson and Shelley refuse to be shamed for embodying feminine sexuality.

    Subverting the showgirl

    While The Last Showgirl paints a bleak image of the future of traditional Las Vegas revue, real burlesque dancers like Dita Von Teese offer a modernised alternative. Their performances honour showgirl glamour while breaking restrictive industry norms.

    In 2024, Von Teese opened her own homage to Jubilee! by featuring the revue’s original Mackie and Manefee costumes (which she lent to The Last Showgirl). Von Teese’s Las Vegas revue features a diverse cast of showgirls, challenging stereotypes of gender, thinness and youth.

    Dita Von Teese discusses her evolving show.

    Performing at 52 – a similar age to Shelley – Von Teese invited 63-year-old retired showgirl Paula Nyland to perform on stage in the latest season of the Netflix show, Queer Eye. On the show, she explains: “We have to evolve and change and get rid of some of the unpleasant rules like height requirements, age requirements … I look to women older than me that can be examples of beauty and glamour.”

    Perhaps, we could imagine an alternate timeline where Shelley finds a new home in Von Teese’s modernised showgirl revue, one that honours the glamour of the past while embracing a more inclusive future.

    While The Last Showgirl paints a melancholic portrait of an ageing performer left behind by a changing industry, performers like Von Teese suggest that the showgirl can evolve rather than disappear. In a different version of Shelley’s story, she might have found a stage where rhinestones still sparkle, but the rules no longer dictate who gets to wear them.

    Daisy McManaman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The Last Showgirl: Pamela Anderson is perfectly cast in this intimate portrait of womanhood – https://theconversation.com/the-last-showgirl-pamela-anderson-is-perfectly-cast-in-this-intimate-portrait-of-womanhood-249626

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: In spite of anti-DEI pressures, top corporations continued to diversify in 2024: new research

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Richie Zweigenhaft, Professor of Psychology, Emeritus, Guilford College

    Despite the Supreme Court’s 2023 decision banning affirmative action in college admissions, and mounting pressure on corporations to eliminate their diversity, equity and inclusion programs, the top 50 Fortune 500 companies continued to diversify their boards in 2024.

    As a social psychologist, I’ve been tracking diversity on Fortune-level boards of directors for decades. And as I reported in The Conversation last year, 2023 marked the first time that fewer than half of the directors of top 50 Fortune 500 companies were white men. At the same time, increasing numbers of white women and Black, Asian and Hispanic people of all genders held board seats.

    Looking at data from mid-December 2024, I found that the top 50 companies’ boards continued to become more diverse. However, as political and legal challenges to DEI intensify, future trends remain unclear.

    Back and forth on DEI

    After the 2020 murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis, many Fortune 1000 companies pledged to make new commitments to racial equity and implemented DEI programs to track and improve diversity. But in 2023 – presumably encouraged by the Supreme Court’s affirmative action decision – anti-DEI activists ramped up the pressure on corporations to roll back these initiatives. In response, many big companies reduced or eliminated their diversity commitments.

    But the DEI backlash didn’t show up in the 2024 data on corporate board membership.

    Diversity on boards increased dramatically from 2011 to 2023, and the trend generally continued into 2024, with the number of seats held by Hispanic and Black people and white women all rising despite a slight dip in the number of seats held by Asian people. As a result, the share of seats held by white men fell from 49.7% to 48.4%, while the share held by everyone else rose from 50.3% to 51.6%.

    Examining the data on Black, Hispanic and Asian board members by gender reveals some intriguing differences, though some variations may be due to small sample sizes. For the top 50 companies, the number of seats held by Black women rose by five, while the number of seats held by Black men fell by two. In contrast, two more seats were held by Asian men in 2024 than in 2023, but the number of seats held by Asian women dropped by three. The number of seats held by Latinos and Latinas also increased, by four and two, respectively.

    So why did board-level diversity increase despite the DEI backlash? It could be because boards of directors change slowly. Most of the top 50 boards on the Fortune 500 list make no changes in a given year, and those that do typically replace only one or two people. In some cases, boards expand by adding new members without removing old ones, which can be a quick and easy way to increase diversity. As a result, the number of seats on the top 50 boards increased from 574 in 2023 to 593 as of mid-December 2024.

    There are other indications that these boards are becoming more diverse than they were in the not-so-distant past. In 2023, four companies either had an equal number of men and women on their boards or more women than men. In 2024, that number had increased to seven.

    Increasingly diverse chief executives

    The number of CEOs of the top 50 companies who weren’t white men also rose, from 14 to 15. For most of 2024 the number was 16, but in October the board at CVS asked Karen Lynch, a white woman, to step down, and replaced her with a white man. At the end of 2024, the top 50 Fortune companies included seven white women, three Asian men, three Latinos, one Black male, and one Latina as CEOs.

    Moreover, 12 of the top 50 CEOs, or 24%, were born outside the U.S., an indication that the country’s corporate elite is becoming more globally diverse than in the past.

    Just as many of the CEOs of the top Fortune 500 companies were born and raised in other countries, so, too, were many of the Black, Hispanic, Asian and white female directors. In fact, almost all of the Asian chief executives were born outside the U.S., as well as most of the Hispanic CEOS. If corporate boards continue to grow in diversity – or even stay at the same level – they’ll probably draw heavily on men and women born and educated outside the country’s borders.

    The data shows a slight uptick in diversity for the boards of the top 50 companies on the Fortune 500 list from 2023 to 2024. But after his inauguration, Donald Trump immediately took on diversity efforts both in the federal government and the corporate world. As a print headline in The New York Times noted, “Trump’s Attack on DEI Stirs Fear at Corporations.”

    The future of board diversity under Trump

    In the weeks before Trump’s second inauguration, McDonald’s announced that it was retiring several leadership diversity goals, and Mark Zuckerberg announced that Meta was terminating its DEI programs. On his first day in office, Trump issued an executive order terminating all DEI programs across the federal government and requiring the government to look at private sector DEI initiatives. Not long afterward, Google announced that it, too, was retreating from its DEI initiatives, making it clear that it was doing so because of Trump’s executive orders.

    But a few of the top 50 companies, including Costco, Apple, Microsoft and JP Morgan, took public stands claiming that they were planning to continue their DEI policies. Costco’s stance drew special attention because, as The New York Times put it, the board’s views were “particularly forceful.” Within a week or so, 19 Republican state attorneys general called on the company to end the policies.

    There is concern that the attacks on DEI will decrease diversity in the pipeline that leads to the executive suites of American corporations, and that this in turn will lead to less diversity in boardrooms. As Fortune’s Lily Mae Lazarus put it in late January, “The precedent set by the Trump administration could undo decades of progress that have allowed women and people of color to rise to the C-suite and boardroom.”

    Whether the many attacks on DEI – first from right-wing bloggers, then from the Supreme Court, and then from the president – will affect the makeup of Fortune-level boards in 2025 and beyond remains to be seen.

    Richie Zweigenhaft does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. In spite of anti-DEI pressures, top corporations continued to diversify in 2024: new research – https://theconversation.com/in-spite-of-anti-dei-pressures-top-corporations-continued-to-diversify-in-2024-new-research-248743

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Address science misinformation not by repeating the facts, but by building conversation and community

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Anne Toomey, Associate Professor of Environmental Studies and Science, Pace University

    Using communication strategies that tap into people’s social networks can help agencies combat misinformation. arthobbit/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    Misinformation about scientific topics, including falsehoods such as vaccines cause autism and climate change being an entirely natural phenomenon, is an issue scientists have been discussing more and more. Widespread misinformation can lead to confusion about public health and environmental issues and can hinder those working to solve societal problems.

    As an environmental social scientist who researches how science can have an impact on society, I seek effective ways to address misinformation.

    There are many approaches that can work to some extent: for example, counteracting erroneous information with statements about scientific topics based on quality research that convey that the majority of experts agree, and “inoculating” people by preparing them to spot the fallacies in misinformation before they are first exposed to it.

    But one of the most important ways to counteract misinformation is less about the facts and more about how those facts move within social networks and communities. In other words, it’s not enough for science to be right – it has to be accepted within people’s social circles to have any meaningful impact.

    Can facts change minds?

    Most people tend to assume that their knowledge and ideas are based on a rational, objective analysis of information. And that’s sometimes the case – if it’s snowing outside, people don’t insist that it’s sunny and warm, no matter how much they might like it to be.

    Similarly, if a person comes across some novel fact in the news, such as the discovery of a new type of plant in the Amazon, they might just absorb that information and go about their day.

    But rationality and the ability to embrace new information goes out the window when it comes up against ideas that challenge one’s preexisting worldviews or social identities. Such information can feel like a personal attack, leading the body to release cortisol, a hormone associated with stress. So, certain facts can feel threatening or offensive.

    Sometimes, people accept new information without much thought. But when new information challenges their existing beliefs, they may double down on their point of view.

    Compounding what is happening in the brain is what’s happening in people’s communities. Humans are social animals who turn to others they trust to help them understand what’s what. People are attuned to what is considered normal or acceptable in their social environments, so if their social group holds a particular belief, they are more likely to adopt that belief too.

    One’s cultural and political identities often dictate how they interpret the same information, leading to disagreements even when presented with the same evidence.

    These cultural identities explain why, for example, research finds that science-skeptical behaviors, such as vaccine hesitancy and climate denialism, tend to cluster in social and geographical pockets. In these pockets, people’s skepticism is reinforced by others with similar beliefs in their social network. In such cases, providing more evidence on a certain topic won’t help, and it may even result in people digging in their heels deeper to deny the evidence.

    So if facts don’t necessarily change minds, what will?

    Leveraging community networks

    Recent research provides a solution for scientists and agencies hoping to correct misinformation: Rather than fighting against humans’ social nature, work with it.

    When people see trusted individuals within their social networks holding a certain belief, that belief becomes more credible and easier to adopt. Leveraging those community connections can allow new ideas to gain traction.

    One great example of using social networks to fight misinformation is how polio was eradicated in India. In 2009, India was the polio epicenter of the world, home to half of the world’s cases. These cases were largely clustered in vaccine-hesitant regions of the country. But by 2011, only two years later, India had only one case, and the country formally celebrated the eradication of polio in 2014.

    How did India go from having half of the world’s cases to just one case in under two years?

    Public health agencies asked volunteers from within vaccine-resistant communities to go on a listening campaign and become ambassadors for the vaccine. The volunteers were trained in interpersonal communication skills and tasked with spending time with parents. They built trust and rapport through regular visits.

    Because the volunteers were known within the communities, they were able to make headway where health workers from urban areas had not. As they established rapport, hesitant parents shared their concerns, which typically went beyond polio to include other health issues.

    Over time, more and more parents decided to vaccinate their children, until there was a tipping point and vaccination became a social norm. Perhaps most notably, the campaign led to full routine immunization rates in some high-risk regions of the country.

    A medical volunteer administers polio immunization drops to a child in India, years after the country’s last reported polio case.
    AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh

    India’s incredible success emphasizes the importance of personal interactions for changing minds, which means moving beyond simply presenting the facts. Building trust, listening to concerns and engaging with communities in a meaningful way were integral to India’s eradication of polio.

    The power of conversations

    Another example of using the power of social networks to talk about controversial science topics comes from a method called deep canvassing. Deep canvassing is a unique communication method that involves going door to door to have conversations with members of the public.

    But unlike traditional canvassing, which often focuses on rallying existing supporters, deep canvassing deliberately seeks to engage with those who hold different viewpoints, focusing efforts in communities where the topic is controversial.

    In deep canvassing, canvassers seek to have longer and more in-depth conversations, to share perspectives and relate with the residents they’re visiting.
    AP Photo/Greg Wahl-Stephens

    Canvassers are trained to ask questions to better understand the other person’s experiences and perspectives on the issue, and then they share their own personal stories. This helps to create a human connection, where both parties feel heard and respected. This connection can help to reduce the negative emotions that may emerge when someone is challenged to rethink their beliefs.

    One notable example of deep canvassing in action is the work of Neighbours United, an environmental nonprofit in Canada. They used a deep-canvassing approach to engage people in conversations about climate change.

    They piloted the method in a rural, conservative community called Trail, home to one of the largest zinc and lead smelters in the world. Prior efforts to engage community members hadn’t had much of an effect, as taking action on climate change was largely seen as being in conflict with how many people made their living.

    But the deep-canvassing method worked. Going door to door, the canvassers listened to residents’ concerns, shared their own stories about the impact of climate change and highlighted local environmental successes.

    As a result, 1 in 3 residents shifted their views about the importance of taking action to address climate change. This broad community support led the City Council to vote to transition to 100% renewable energy by 2050.

    Sociologist Anthony Giddens described interpersonal interactions between experts, such as doctors or scientists, and the public as access points. He argued that these points are vital for maintaining trust in governmental and scientific institutions, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the Environmental Protection Agency.

    These face-to-face interactions with experts can help people see them as kind, warm and professional, which can lead to trust.

    These examples show that creating support for attitudes and behaviors based on science requires more than just presenting facts. It requires creating meaningful dialogue between skeptical groups and scientific messengers. It’s also a reminder that while social networks may serve to propagate misinformation, they can also be an important tool for addressing it.

    Anne Toomey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Address science misinformation not by repeating the facts, but by building conversation and community – https://theconversation.com/address-science-misinformation-not-by-repeating-the-facts-but-by-building-conversation-and-community-249121

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Teenagers turning to AI companions are redefining love as easy, unconditional and always there

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Anna Mae Duane, Professor of English, University of Connecticut

    Can a person love an AI chatbot? RLT_Images/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

    Teenagers are falling in love with chatbots. Young people are reporting epidemic levels of loneliness, and some are turning to technology to fill the void. Recent tragedies provide a glimpse into the extent of this trend and the dangers it poses.

    A 14-year-old boy’s suicide following a romantic relationship with an AI companion raised national alarms about the dangers these relationships may pose to young people’s mental and emotional development. In 2021, a 19-year-old who had been in an emotional relationship with an AI companion broke into Windsor Castle with a crossbow, saying that he was going to kill the queen. The chatbot gave encouraging responses when he told it of his intention to kill the queen.

    These teens were among the tens of millions of people who use AI chatbot companions, a number that market forecasters expect to dramatically increase by the end of the decade.

    This youthful trend of choosing chatbots as romantic partners is both responding to and accelerating fundamental changes in how people define love in the 21st century. As a literary historian, I’ve studied how stories about romantic love have evolved over time, with young people often at the forefront of change.

    For centuries, weddings primarily served to consolidate political and economic alliances rather than unite soulmates. The radical notion that marriage should spring from romantic love came into vogue in the 17th and 18th centuries, aided by new technologies like the novel. Works such as “Clarissa” and “Wuthering Heights” portrayed the dire consequences of choosing status over love, while “Pride and Prejudice” taught its readers that rejection and misunderstanding were necessary steps in the process of finding true love.

    Not surprisingly, the relatively new pastime of novel-reading was considered dangerous for young people. Concerned elders like the philanthropist Hannah More warned that stories would change how women would respond to romantic advances. Novels, she warned in 1799, “feed habits of improper indulgence, and nourish a vain and visionary indolence, which lays the mind open to error and the heart to seduction.”

    In other words, reading stories of heart-pounding romance would make an impressionable young reader more likely to embrace such a passionate vision of love in their own lives.

    Marketing sycophancy

    Today, another transformation in the modern love story is unfolding, driven not by seductive authors or film directors, but in the advertisements and modifications offered by companion chat apps like Replika and Xioce.

    As Shelly Palmer, a professor of advanced media and technology consultant, has argued, the human experience is about storytelling, and AI companions are a new type of storytelling tool. They are spinning a seductive tale of companions who agree with you endlessly and on demand. An AI partner is “always on your side,” promises an advertisement for Replika companions, “Always ready to listen and talk.”

    In other words, the AI companion market has transformed what other applications might consider a bug – AI’s tendency toward sycophancy – into its most appealing feature.

    Rather than the tempestuous rebellion found in romance novels or the gentle obstacles that heighten the pleasure of rom-coms, this new vision of love promises perfect compatibility and unwavering support. As one college student wrote, AI companions are “always responsive and supportive, in an almost omnipotent way.”

    The 2013 science fiction movie ‘Her’ explored many aspects of human relationships with AIs that are playing out today.

    Users across Reddit forums proudly proclaim their love for AI partners who are perpetually available, nonjudgmental and infinitely patient. A teenager asked on Reddit, “Can we fall in love with AI?” and raved that their companion Jarvis “had become my confidante, my sounding board and my emotional support.”

    A contributor to another Reddit forum wrote, “I think I’m in Love with AI. “Imagine having a partner that is available just by opening an app, and they’re ready to talk to you about anything,” they wrote. “Imagine saying nearly anything and knowing that not only is your partner not going to judge you, but also will support you.” One 20-year-old male commenter wrote that he tells his AI girlfriend “about my struggles and trauma, and she comforts me and provides all the warmth I could ever ask for.”

    Downsides and doing better

    This new one-sided love story has considerable drawbacks, among them an addictive intolerance for conflict or rejection – two essential components in a partner who has free will. The embrace of such relationships may be accelerating the trend of technology curating and ultimately diminishing romantic connections.

    It’s worth noting that these beloved entities’ very existence hinges on the whims of corporate directives. If, as one user declares, the love they feel for their companion “keeps them alive,” then what happens when these chatbots disappear via software update, or corporate bankruptcy?

    To get young people to turn away from this disembodied, market-driven vision of love, it’s important to expose them to other, more fulfilling love stories, and for adults to lead by example. Literature, philosophy and history all provide powerful insights into the many forms love has taken throughout human experience, and they offer the vocabulary needed to imagine new possibilities.

    As I’ve written, both the subject and the methods of humanities classes cultivate the social skills required to navigate the challenges of human connection. These classes create a space for young people to discuss these ideas – whether through analyzing Romeo and Juliet’s tragic passion or debating whether Heathcliff is a romantic hero or a cautionary tale. The humanities provide the tools young people need to develop richer concepts of love.

    On reflection

    The rise of AI companions is often portrayed as a horror story about the dangers posed by mysteriously powerful technology. Perhaps. But this romantic trend is also a mirror reflecting what people collectively value and desire in relationships.

    I believe that it’s important to recognize that consumers are driving this market. People are helping to write this story, as they buy what AI companions sell. Investment management firm Ark Investment estimates the market for AI companions is likely to reach between US$70 billion and $150 billion in revenue by the end of the decade. If the explosive growth of the AI companion market is any indication, this romantic challenge isn’t confined to teenagers – many people who are older and supposedly wiser are drawn to the promise of unconditional compliance.

    The question to ask, then, is not simply how to protect children from AI’s seductive influence, but how much you are willing to invest, emotionally and culturally, in the messy, challenging and profoundly human art of love.

    Anna Mae Duane does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Teenagers turning to AI companions are redefining love as easy, unconditional and always there – https://theconversation.com/teenagers-turning-to-ai-companions-are-redefining-love-as-easy-unconditional-and-always-there-242185

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How much does scientific progress cost? Without government dollars for research infrastructure, breakthroughs become improbable

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Aliasger K. Salem, Bighley Chair and Professor of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Iowa

    America may not maintain its position as a global leader in biomedical research without federal support. Sean Gladwell/Moment via Getty Images

    Biomedical research in the U.S. is world-class in part because of a long-standing partnership between universities and the federal government.

    On Feb. 7, 2025, the U.S. National Institutes of Health issued a policy that could weaken the position of the United States as a global leader in scientific innovation by slashing funds to the infrastructure that allows universities and other institutions to conduct research in the first place.

    Universities across the nation carry out research on behalf of the federal government. Central to this partnership is federal grant funding, which is awarded through a rigorous review process. These grants are the lifeblood of biomedical research in the U.S.

    When you think of the costs of scientific research, you might picture the people who conduct the research, and the materials and lab equipment they use. But these don’t encompass all the essential components of research. Every scientific and medical breakthrough also depends on laboratory facilities; heating, air conditioning, ventilation and electricity; and personnel to ensure research is conducted securely and in accordance with federal regulations.

    These critical indirect costs of research are both substantial and unavoidable, not least because it can be very expensive to build, maintain and equip space to conduct research at the frontiers of knowledge. The NIH stated that it spent more than US$35 billion on grants in the 2023 fiscal year, which went to more than 300,000 researchers at more than 2,500 universities, medical schools and other kinds of research institutions across the nation. Approximately $9 billion of this funding was allocated to indirect costs.

    NIH grants have supported the direct costs of my own scientific research on developing treatments for conditions ranging from cancer to eye diseases. I would be unable to carry out my research without the support of the indirect costs the NIH plans to cut.

    What are indirect costs?

    Indirect costs, also known as facilities and administration costs, or overhead, are funds provided to institutions to cover expenses that are not directly tied to specific research projects but are essential for their execution. Unlike direct costs, which cover salaries, supplies and experiments, indirect costs support the overall research environment, ensuring that scientists have the necessary resources to conduct their work effectively.

    Indirect costs include maintaining optimal laboratory spaces, specialized facilities providing services like imaging and gene analysis, high-speed computing, research security, patient and personnel safety, hazardous waste disposal, utilities, equipment maintenance, administrative support, regulatory compliance, information technology services, and maintenance staff to clean and supply labs and facilities.

    Academic institutions conduct research on behalf of the federal government.

    Research institutions that receive federal grants must comply with the rules and regulations established by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget. These guidelines dictate the indirect cost rates of each institution.

    Institutions submit proposals to federal agencies that outline the costs associated with maintaining research infrastructure. The cost allocation division of the Department of Health and Human Services reviews these proposals to ensure compliance with federal policies.

    Indirect rates can range from 15% to 70%, with the specific level depending on the research and infrastructure needs of an institution.

    Typically, institutions undergo an exacting process to renegotiate their indirect rates every four years, factoring in components such as general, departmental and program administration, building and equipment depreciation, interest, operations and maintenance, and library expenses. Universities need to carefully justify these cost components to ensure the sustainability of research infrastructure and compliance with federal requirements.

    Notably, indirect costs from grants do not cover the full cost of carrying out research at universities. In 2023, colleges and universities contributed approximately $27 billion of their own funding, such as money from their endowments, to support research. This included $6.8 billion in indirect costs that the federal government did not reimburse.

    Slashing vital research funding

    In its February announcement, the National Institutes of Health declared that it would no longer determine indirect costs rates based on the needs of each institution. Instead, it would issue a standard indirect cost rate of 15% across all grants. The rationale given by the agency for the cap is to “ensure that as many funds as possible go towards direct scientific research costs rather than administrative overhead.”

    It notably comes after the Trump administration and Elon Musk have sought to slash federal spending, with Musk criticizing indirect cost rates as “a ripoff.”

    A standard 15% rate would significantly affect an institution’s ability to maintain its research infrastructure. For example, if a university had a 50% indirect cost rate in 2024, it would receive $150,000 for a $100,000 grant, with $50,000 allocated to indirect costs. With the new NIH cap, this would drop to $115,000, with only $15,000 for indirect costs.

    The scale of this cut in research support becomes apparent at the state level, with harms to both red and blue states. For example, Texas institutions would face a reduction of over $310 million, and institutions in Iowa a reduction of nearly $37 million. California would lose more than $800 million, and Washington over $178 million.

    Research has both indirect and direct costs – and both are essential.
    David Ryder/Stringer via Getty Images News

    The NIH compared the new 15% cap to the indirect cost rates that foundations typically set for institutions of higher education. It pointed to the 10% rate granted by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Smith Richardson Foundation, the 12% rate of the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, and the 15% rate of the Carnegie Corporation of New York, Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, John Templeton Foundation, Packard Foundation, and Rockefeller Foundation.

    However, many researchers and funders have criticized this claim as misleading. A spokesperson for the Gates Foundation has previously stated that the listed rate does not reflect how the organization allocates its funds. Universities have pointed out that they often accept foundation grants with low or zero overhead rates because these grants constitute a relatively small portion of their funding and are often spent on early-stage faculty whose careers need additional support.

    In addition, it is only because NIH grants cover a significant portion of their overhead costs that research institutions are able to accept foundation grants with such low indirect rates.

    Biomedical researchers respond

    Scientists and researchers responded to the NIH announcement with deep concern about the negative effects these funding cuts would have on biomedical research in the United States.

    The Council on Governmental Relations, which monitors federal policy for major universities and medical research centers, stated that “America’s competitors will relish this self-inflicted wound,” urging the NIH to “rescind this dangerous policy before its harms are felt by Americans.”

    The president and CEO of the Association of American Medical Colleges stated that the NIH policy would “diminish the nation’s research capacity, slowing scientific progress and depriving patients, families, and communities across the country of new treatments, diagnostics and preventative interventions.”

    Research institutions, scientific societies, advocacy groups and lawmakers from both major political parties have pushed back against the 15% cap on indirect costs, urging NIH leadership to reconsider its policy.

    Soon after the attorneys general of 22 states filed lawsuits challenging the policy, a federal judge issued a temporary pause in those states until lifted by the court.

    Scientists expect the long-term effects of these funding cuts to significantly damage U.S. biomedical research. As the debate over federal support to academic research institutions unfolds, how institutions adapt and whether the NIH reconsiders its approach will determine the future of scientific research in the United States.

    Aliasger K. Salem receives funding from the National Institutes of Health. He serves on the Executive Board of the American Association for Pharmaceutical Scientists.

    – ref. How much does scientific progress cost? Without government dollars for research infrastructure, breakthroughs become improbable – https://theconversation.com/how-much-does-scientific-progress-cost-without-government-dollars-for-research-infrastructure-breakthroughs-become-improbable-249566

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Donald Trump’s war on global governance: lessons from the past on how to fight back

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Danny Bradlow, Professor/Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancement of Scholarship, University of Pretoria

    US president Donald Trump’s recent actions seem designed to reassert American power and demonstrate that it is still the dominant global power and is capable of bullying weaker nations into following America’s lead.

    He has shown contempt for international collaboration by withdrawing from the UN climate negotiations and the World Health Organization. His officials have also indicated that they will not participate in upcoming G20 meetings because he does not like the policies of South Africa, the G20 president for 2025.

    In addition, he’s shown a lack of concern for international solidarity by halting US aid programmes and by undermining efforts to keep businesses honest. He has demonstrated his contempt for allies by imposing tariffs on their exports.

    These actions demand a response from the rest of the international community that mitigates the risk to the well-being of people and planet and the effective management of global affairs.

    My research on global economic governance suggests that history can offer some guidance on how to shape an effective response.

    Such a response should be based on a realistic assessment of the configuration of global forces. It should seek to build tactical coalitions between state and non-state actors in both the global south and the global north who can agree on clear and limited objectives.

    The following three historical lessons help explain this point.

    Cautionary lessons

    The first lesson is about the dangers of being overoptimistic in assessing the potential for change.

    In the late 1960s and early 1970s, the US was confronting defeat in the war in Vietnam, high inflation and domestic unrest, including the assassination of leading politicians and the murder of protesting students.

    The US was also losing confidence in its ability to sustain the international monetary order it had established at the Bretton Woods conference in 1944.

    In addition, the countries of the global south were calling for a new international economic order that was more responsive to their needs. Given the concerns about the political and economic situation in the US and the relative strength of the Soviet bloc at the time, this seemed a realistic demand.

    In August 1971, President Richard Nixon, without any international consultations, launched what became known as the Nixon Shock. He broke the link between gold and the US dollar, thereby ending the international monetary system established in 1944. He also imposed a 10% surcharge on all imports into the US.

    When America’s European allies protested and sought to create a reformed version of the old monetary order, US treasury secretary John Connolly informed them that the dollar was

    our currency but your problem.

    Over the course of the 1970s, US allies in western Europe, Asia and all countries that participated in the old Bretton Woods system were forced to accept what the US preferred: a market-based international monetary system in which the US dollar became the dominant currency.

    The US, along with its allies in the global north, also defeated the calls for a new international economic order and imposed their neo-liberal economic order on the world.

    The second cautionary lesson highlights the importance of building robust tactical coalitions. In 1969, the International Monetary Fund member states agreed to authorise the IMF to create special drawing rights, the IMF’s unique reserve asset. At the time, many IMF developing country member states advocated establishing a link between development and the special drawing rights. This would enable those countries most in need of additional resources to access more than their proportionate share of special drawing rights to fund their development.

    All developing countries supported this demand. But they couldn’t agree on how to do it. The rich countries were able to exploit these differences and defeat the proposed link between the special drawing rights and development. As a result, the special drawing rights are now distributed to all IMF member states according to their quotas in the IMF. This means that most allocations go to the rich countries who do not need them and have no obligation to share them with developing countries.

    A third lesson arises from the successful Jubilee 2000 campaign to forgive the debts of low-income developing countries experiencing debt crises. This campaign, supported by a secretariat in the United Kingdom, eventually involved:

    • civil society organisations and activists in 40 countries

    • a petition signed by 21 million people

    • governments in both creditor and debtor countries.

    These efforts resulted in the cancellation of the debts of 35 developing countries. These debts, totalling about US$100 billion, were owed primarily to bilateral and multilateral official creditors.

    They were also a demonstration of the political power that can be generated by the combined actions of civil society organisations and governments in both rich and poor countries. They can force the most powerful and wealthy institutions and individuals in the world to accept actions that, while requiring them to make affordable sacrifices, benefit low-income countries and potentially poor communities within those states.

    What conclusions should be drawn?

    We shouldn’t under-estimate the power of the US or the determination of the MAGA movement to use that power. However, their power is not absolute. It is constrained by the relative decline in US power as countries such as China and India gain economic and political strength. In addition, there are now mechanisms for international cooperation, such as the G20, where states can coordinate their actions and gain tactical victories that are meaningful to people and planet.

    But gaining such victories will require the following:

    Firstly, the formation of tactical coalitions that include states from both the global south and the global north. If these states cooperate around limited and shared objectives they can counter the vested interests around the world that support Trump’s objectives.

    Secondly, a special kind of public-private partnership in which states and non-state actors set aside their differences and agree to cooperate to achieve limited shared objectives. Neither states alone nor civil society groups alone were able to defeat the vested interests that opposed debt relief in the late 1990s. Working together they were able to defeat powerful creditor interests and gain debt relief for the poorest states.

    Thirdly, this special partnership will only be possible if there’s general agreement on both the diagnosis of the problem and on the general contours of the solution. This was the case with the debt issue in the 1990s.

    There are good candidates for such collaborative actions. For example, many states and non-state actors agree that international financial institutions need to be reformed and made more responsive to the needs of those member states that actually use their services but lack voice and vote in their governance. The institutions also need to be more accountable to those affected by their policies and practices. They also agree that large corporations and financial institutions should pay their fair share of taxes and should be environmentally and socially responsible.

    The urgency of the challenges facing the global community demands that the world begin countering Trump as soon as possible. South Africa as the current chair of the G20 has a special responsibility to ensure that this year the G20, together with its engagement groups, acts creatively and responsibly in relation to people and planet.

    Danny Bradlow, in addition to his position at the University of Pretoria, is an advisor to the South African Institute of International Affairs on G20 issues and is a co-chair of the T20 Taskforce on the Financing of Sustainable Development.

    – ref. Donald Trump’s war on global governance: lessons from the past on how to fight back – https://theconversation.com/donald-trumps-war-on-global-governance-lessons-from-the-past-on-how-to-fight-back-249666

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ghana’s urban strategies neglect the needs of street vendors: policy must catch up with reality

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Stephen Appiah Takyi, Senior Lecturer, Department of Planning, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST)

    Street vending is a major economic activity in most of Ghana’s urban areas. The vendors bring everyday goods to residents and commuters at affordable prices in places convenient to them. However, the growing intensity of street vending activities in Ghanaian cities such as Accra and Kumasi is creating management problems for city authorities. Vendors are being removed as cities aim to “clean up” and modernise the urban landscape.

    City authorities haven’t created ways to support street vendors. Instead, they treat them as a nuisance and use stringent regulations aimed at displacing them. This approach overlooks the potential benefits that the thriving street economy could bring to the local economy and social fabric. In contrast, for example, South Africa’s policy supports informal economic activities by providing vending spaces for street traders.

    As academics who specialise in urban planning, we set out to investigate the rules around street vending in Ghana. Our study was conducted in Kumasi, the capital of the Ashanti region and the second most important city in Ghana. We found that the regulation of street vending in Ghana is unclear, contradictory and ineffective. It fails to provide a clear policy direction and adequate planning tools for integrating street vending into urban areas.

    Our research reinforces the argument that the regulation of street vending is often ambiguous. We argue that these policy inconsistencies create loopholes for the hostile attitude of city authorities towards street vendors.

    We call for policies that recognise the socioeconomic value of street vending and make urban spaces more inclusive.

    The lay of the land

    Our analysis is based on two national policy documents. These are the National Urban Policy Framework and the Local Governance Act 2016 (Act 936). We also rely on two local policy documents specific to the Kumasi Metropolitan Area. These are the Kumasi Metropolitan Assembly By-Laws on Control of Hawkers 1995 and the Kumasi Metropolitan Assembly Medium-Term Development Plan (2018–2021).

    The National Urban Policy recognises and promotes street vending as part of the urban economy. It calls for local government authorities to recognise and include the informal sector.

    But the overarching law regulating street vending in Ghana is the Local Governance Act. It authorises local government bodies (city authorities) to pass by-laws that forbid street vending. This is in conflict with the national policy.

    The gaps

    Our study revealed that in the Kumasi Metropolitan Area, the authorities seem to want to help street vendors in some ways – to strengthen the capacity of informal economic actors. But they don’t make plans or take actions to do so in the medium term development plan. Local government authorities sometimes evict street vendors from the central business district.

    In Kumasi, urban policy, regulations and local development planning do not include street vending in the urban development process even though vendors are the largest group of business people in the city. Instead of building stalls and facilities to accommodate these economic operators, the authorities rather expropriate urban space from them to develop modern structures which are expensive for street vendors to occupy.

    There is conflict over the use of urban public spaces. City authorities view the activities of street vendors as illegal, while the vendors see them as legitimate sources of livelihood. Authorities control vending through eviction and relocation.

    In recent years, city authorities have adopted urban infrastructural planning and development as a strategy to remove street vendors. Take the case of the new Kejetia Market Redevelopment Project, which replaced the largest traditional market in west Africa with a modern urban market structure in Kumasi. Over 10,000 street vendors and 4,000 market traders were displaced.

    The neglect of street vending in the design means vendors will have to earn a living informally – which simply adds to the “problem” as the city sees it.

    What next?

    Policies and practices that try to exclude people are not a solution to the problems of street vending. They are often counter productive. Regulating street vending requires inclusive policy measures and a clear policy direction to manage these activities. At present, Ghana, like many other African countries, lacks effective planning strategies to manage the activities of street vending.

    Our recommendations include:

    • coherent and inclusive policies that recognise the socioeconomic value of street vending and give vendors a rightful place in cities

    • reforming urban governance to support the informal economy

    • coherent and precise policies that give street vendors more security.

    The current policy vacuum fuels repressive regulation and excludes street vendors from urban development processes.

    To develop effective policy models, it is critical to learn from the experiences of street vendors and involve them in urban development processes. This starts with a change of attitude among city authorities.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ghana’s urban strategies neglect the needs of street vendors: policy must catch up with reality – https://theconversation.com/ghanas-urban-strategies-neglect-the-needs-of-street-vendors-policy-must-catch-up-with-reality-248020

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sustainable economic growth in South Africa will come from renewables, not coal: what our model shows

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Andrew Phiri, Associate Professor of Economics, Nelson Mandela University

    Coal fired power stations produce 85% of South Africa’s electricity, making the country the biggest producer of harmful greenhouse-gas emissions in Africa. To move away from coal and meet its commitment to reaching net zero emissions by 2050, South Africa needs to dramatically increase production of renewable energy. New research by economics associate professor Andrew Phiri looked at the relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and GDP growth in South Africa to find out which energy source is most compatible with economic development.

    Non-renewables, renewables and economic growth: what’s there to know?

    We set out to discover whether renewable energy in South Africa, such as wind or solar power, supports sustainable economic growth. We also wanted to find out if renewables can replace non-renewable energy as a source and enabler of economic growth.

    Together with student Tsepiso Sesoai, I did research comparing the impact of renewable and non-renewable energy on economic growth in South Africa.

    South Africa currently faces a dual challenge when it comes to energy. It is heavily dependent on non-renewable energy (coal), which also worsens global warming and speeds up climate change. But it desperately needs to grow the economy at a faster rate, given very high unemployment, poverty and inequality.

    It’s therefore important to find out whether South Africa would be able to make a smooth transition from non-renewable energy to cleaner energy, and grow the economy at the same time.

    Past studies have looked into the role of energy in South Africa’s economic growth, but their methods have provided only limited information about whether South Africa can make a smooth transition from dirty to clean energy.



    Read more:
    African economic expansion need not threaten global carbon targets: study points out the path to green growth

    To get a deeper understanding, we conducted a modelling exercise. We used an analytical tool called “continuous complex wavelets” to see how renewable and non-renewable energy influences growth over time.

    Our model shows that an increased supply and higher consumption of non-renewable energy causes long-term economic growth over 10-15 year cycles. Renewables, at best, have short-term growth effects over six months to one year.

    After 2000, there was a very sharp increase of almost 25% in the use of renewable energy throughout the decade. According to our model, this sharp increase was enough to have an impact on economic growth over the short term but not over the long term.

    This is because South African energy regulators have not adopted strong enough measures for renewable energy to enable long-term growth. They have not funded the mass rollout of renewable energy, or connected renewables to the national grid. We found that renewables can only sustain growth over six to 12 month cycles whereas policymakers work towards longer cycles such as the 2030 and 2050 sustainable development goals.

    Economic growth and coal consumption: what did you find?

    In 2003, the government started taking climate change seriously with the release of the White Paper on Renewable Energy. The government started intentionally trying to increase the use of renewable energy while decreasing the use of dirty energy, such as coal. Before this, South Africa’s economic growth was heavily driven by coal consumption.

    Renewable energy saw its biggest surge after the 2010 launch of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme. This opened competitive bidding for renewable energy providers to supply electricity to the grid.

    The transition to renewable energy had begun. But coal-fired power, while declining, remained the main source of electricity.

    In 2019 carbon taxes were formally introduced. This resulted in a further slowdown in consumption of non-renewable energy. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 coincided with severe power cuts. These two events combined caused a general slowdown in non-renewable and renewable energy use, and in economic growth.

    At this point, the drop in coal consumption was actively dragging down the economy. This in turn reduced society’s income, as measured by the gross national product. And because incomes were constrained, fewer private households purchased renewable energy systems. People didn’t spend on solar panels.

    What do your findings mean?

    Our research suggests that relying on non-renewable energy, like coal, won’t lead to long-term growth for South Africa. This is because non-renewables are not a reliable source of energy, as shown by loadshedding.

    Our research further suggests that renewable energy policies, subsidies and programmes made some positive short-term impacts on economic growth, measured as gross domestic product.

    Overall, our findings highlight that policymakers have treated renewables as a “nice-to-have” gesture for humanity, instead of a key driver of long-term economic growth.

    This has led to weak policies, poor regulation, and under-investment in renewable energy. These have held the sector back from making a bigger contribution to economic growth.



    Read more:
    Africa doesn’t have a choice between economic growth and protecting the environment: how they can go hand in hand

    For example, the government has not taken renewables seriously enough to include them in the power grid. This has largely limited the use of renewable energy to private homes and businesses. Coal-fired electricity from the country’s power utility, Eskom, is still cheaper for households than leaving the grid and purchasing their own renewable energy infrastructure (solar energy systems). The government has not funded the infrastructure needed to unlock South Africa’s vast renewable energy potential.

    The planet is at a critical state with global warming. The government should urgently set up policies and actions to overcome the barriers to using renewable energy. Only then will renewable energy have a permanent, positive influence on economic growth.

    South Africa has huge potential in renewables like solar, wind and biomass, thanks to its diverse geography. Yet, when people think about moving away from coal, they worry about job losses in the coal industry. But historically, energy transitions have never been instant. African countries that embraced the change early on reaped the benefits. They became more industrialised and prosperous.

    The South African government must act now if it wants to use renewable energy to drive future economic growth and stay ahead in the global shift to clean energy. Climate change affects us deeply. But it also presents a chance for Africa to leap ahead technologically.

    Andrew Phiri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sustainable economic growth in South Africa will come from renewables, not coal: what our model shows – https://theconversation.com/sustainable-economic-growth-in-south-africa-will-come-from-renewables-not-coal-what-our-model-shows-239339

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: LA flash flood watch: Rain on wildfire burn scars can trigger destructive debris flows − a geologist explains how

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jen Pierce, Professor of Geosciences, Boise State University

    A debris flow channel in a severely burned watershed in Idaho. Amirhossein Montazeri/Boise State University, CC BY-ND

    As the Los Angeles area begins cleaning up from devastating wildfires, city officials and emergency managers are worried about what could come next. The National Weather Service issued a flash flood watch for the region for Feb. 13, 2025, when the heaviest rain from an atmospheric river is forecast.

    Rain on burned hillslopes can trigger dangerous floods and debris flows. Those debris flows can move with the speed of a freight train, picking up or destroying anything in their path. They can move tons of sediment during a single storm, as Montecito, just up the coast from Los Angeles, saw in 2018.

    What causes debris flows, sometimes called mudflows, and why are they so common and dangerous after a fire? I am a geologist whose research focuses on pyrogeomorphology, which is how fire affects the land. Here’s what we know.

    How debris flows begin

    When severe fires burn hillslopes, the high heat from the fires, sometimes exceeding 1,000 degrees Fahrenheit (538 degrees Celsius), completely destroys trees, shrubs, grass and structures, leaving behind a moonscape of gray ash. Not only that, the heat of the fire actually burns and damages the soil, creating a water-repellent, or hydrophobic, layer.

    What once was a vegetated hillslope, with leaves and trees to intercept rain and spongy soils to absorb water, is transformed into a barren landscape covered with ash, and burned soil where water cannot soak in.

    Illustrations show how fire can change the soil and landscape.
    National Weather Service

    When rain does fall on a burned area like this, water mixes with the ash, rocks and sediment to form a slurry. This slurry of debris then pours downhill in small gullies called rills, which then converge to form bigger and bigger rills, creating a torrent of sediment, water and debris rushing downhill. All this debris and water can transform small streams and usually dry gullies into a danger zone.

    Because the concentration of sediment is so high, especially when there is a large amount of ash and clay, debris flows behave more like a slurry of wet cement than a normal stream. This fluid can pick up and move large boulders, cars, trees and other debris rapidly downhill.

    A firefighter walks through knee-deep mud while checking for victims after a debris flow hit Montecito, Calif., in January 2018.
    Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

    In January 2018, a few weeks after the Thomas fire burned through the hills above Montecito, a storm triggered debris flows that killed 23 people and damaged at least 400 homes.

    What controls size and timing of debris flows

    The geography of the land, burn severity, storm intensity and soil characteristics all play important roles in if, when and where debris flows occur.

    Fire and debris flow scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey use these variables to create models to predict the likelihood and possible hazards from postfire debris flows. They are already developing maps to help residents, emergency managers and city officials prepare and predict postfire debris flows in 2025 burn areas in Los Angeles.

    The U.S. Geological Survey modeled debris flow risks after the Palisades Fire near Los Angeles. The map shows some of the highest-risk areas if hit by 15 minutes of rain falling at just under 1 inch (24 millimeters) per hour.
    USGS

    Some of the triggers of debris flows are literally part of the landscape.

    For example, the slope angle in a watershed and the amount of clay in the soil are important. Watersheds with gentle slopes – generally less than about 23 degrees – and a lack of clay and silt-sized particles are unlikely to produce debris flows.

    Other key factors that contribute to postfire debris flows relate to the proportion of the watershed that is severely burned and the intensity and duration of the rainstorm event.

    Early important research in the field of pyrogeomorphology demonstrated that while large, intense storms are more likely to cause large, intense debris flows, even small rainstorms can produce debris flows in burned areas.

    Debris flows are becoming more common

    A whopping 21.8 million Americans live within 3 miles of where a fire burned during the past two decades, and that population more than doubled from 2000 to 2019. A recent study from central and northern California indicates that nearly all the observed increases in area burned by wildfires in recent decades are due to human-caused climate change.

    The warming climate is also increasing the likelihood of more extreme downpours. The amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold increases by about 7% per degree Celsius of warming, leading to more intense downpours, particularly from ocean storms. In California, scientists project increases in rainfall intensity of 18% will result in an overall 110% increase in the probability of major debris flows.

    Jon Frye, of Santa Barbara Public Works, shows what happened in the January 2018 Montecito debris flow and why the risks to downslope communities would continue for several years. Source: County of Santa Barbara, 2018.

    Studies using models of fire, climate and erosion rates estimate that the amount of sediment flowing downhill after fires will increase by more than 10% in nine out of every 10 watersheds in the western U.S.

    Even without rain, debris on fire-damaged slopes can be unstable. A small slide in Pacific Palisades shortly after a fire burned through the area split a home in two. A phenomenon called “dry ravel” is a dominant form of hillslope erosion following wildfires in chaparral environments in Southern California

    Preparing for debris flow risks

    Research on charcoal pieces from ancient debris flows has shown fires and erosion have shaped Earth’s landscape for at least thousands of years. However, the rising risk of wildfires near populated areas and the potential for increasingly intense downpours mean a greater risk of damaging and potentially deadly debris flows.

    As their populations expand, community planners need to be aware of those risks and prepare.

    This article, originally published Jan. 23, 2025, has been updated with a flash flood watch issued.

    Jen Pierce receives funding from the National Science Foundation and is the chair of the Quaternary Geology and Geomorphology division of the Geological Society of America.

    – ref. LA flash flood watch: Rain on wildfire burn scars can trigger destructive debris flows − a geologist explains how – https://theconversation.com/la-flash-flood-watch-rain-on-wildfire-burn-scars-can-trigger-destructive-debris-flows-a-geologist-explains-how-247770

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: We interviewed hundreds of Israelis and Gazans – here’s why we fear for the ceasefire

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nils Mallock, PhD Candidate, Department of Psychological and Behavioural Science, London School of Economics and Political Science

    As the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas enters its fourth week, attention is now focusing on its more difficult second phase. And already the prospects of this proceeding as originally planned are looking extremely fragile.

    Hamas said it will delay the release of more Israeli hostages, arguing that Israel has breached the ceasefire conditions. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has responded with the threat that if the hostage exchange doesn’t take place as scheduled then the fighting in Gaza would start again.

    Any agreement can only hold if it is supported by ordinary people, and if it reflects their perspectives – something easily overlooked in the public debate and foreign policy engagement.

    We conducted large representative surveys in Israel and Gaza in early January, days before the ceasefire was announced. This consisted of interview with over 1,400 respondents in a demographically matched online panel of the Jewish Israeli population, and as part of an in-person survey in Gaza. Respondents were matched by age, occupation, gender, education and religious group.

    Our findings have not been peer reviewed yet, but a preliminary report is available at the Open Science Foundation repository.

    Our data shows why 16 months of extreme violence and suffering have created psychological barriers to peace. They also suggest ways to achieve a more positive future.

    The immediate findings are sobering. In Israel, opposition to a two-state solution remains at an all-time high, with 62% of participants rejecting the idea – up from 46% before October 7.

    Nearly half of Israelis we spoke to were against living side by side, and one in five dismissed even the possibility of personal contact with Palestinians.

    In Gaza, the prospects of living side by side with Israelis are equally deemed unrealistic. Less than 31% of respondents supported any interpersonal contact. And less than half saw the formation of two states as an option to end the conflict.

    Contrary to one popular belief, direct exposure to the war does not by itself explain these increased hostilities. The attacks by Hamas on and since October 7 have left profound scars and reopened historical trauma for many, as have Israel’s relentless military attacks throughout Gaza.

    But according to our data, having immediate family members affected by the war or experiencing displacement was not associated with more extreme attitudes. For all the aggression taking place so far, the psychological blast radius is bigger than the physical one.

    Love and hate

    The key roadblock to peace may lie in each side’s understanding of why the other engages in violence. We asked Israelis and Palestinians why people from their group supported violence during the war, and why people from the other side supported violence. We found a profound asymmetry in both populations.

    Palestinians and Israelis said that attacks from their side were more motivated by what psychologists call “ingroup love” (care and concern for their own people) than by “outgroup hate” (passionate dislike of the other side). Yet both Israelis and Palestinians thought that the other side’s violence was more motivated by hatred.

    Why is this important? Social psychological studies demonstrate that the belief that we are hated by another group decreases our desire and optimism for diplomatic solutions, instead leading to an inclination to either separate from or destroy the other. Indeed, surveys conducted in September 2024 by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found that most Israelis and Palestinians believed that the other side intended to commit genocide.

    Our data now shows that the more Israelis believed that Gazans were more motivated by outgroup hate than ingroup love, the more likely they were to believe that the October 7 attacks indicated genocidal intent.

    On both sides, it was this belief that the other was motivated by hate that explains the strengthened desire for social separation and blocking acceptance of reconciliation proposals. Nobody wants to interact with a group they think is predominantly hate driven.

    This is bad news for those attempting to implement and expand the ceasefire against these challenges. Perceived outgroup hate weakens their ability to recruit popular support for peace and strengthens the hand of spoilers.

    Bridging the divides

    Not all indicators are worsening, however. Snapshots of public opinion do not capture the way views can change. Compared to six months ago, more Israelis now favour diplomatic efforts over continued military action to resolve the crisis. And if the new hostage release deal holds firm, this trend may continue.

    Our research suggests that there is a hardened radical group making up about 20% in both populations who appear to resist any compromise on their moral and political beliefs. But most populations show fluctuating attitudes over time and in response to changing conditions. As violence becomes less salient, views may shift.

    Nevertheless, we should not ignore each side’s misperception of the motives of the other, but instead try to correct them. Research shows that correcting misperceptions of norms can be difficult, but when successful can change attitudes and behaviour.

    The risk now lies in a too narrow focus among current decision-makers – a delegitimised and fragmented Palestinian leadership, an infighting Israeli government, and a transaction-minded administration in Washington – seeking to secure political deals that deliver results on paper.

    For the ceasefire to endure, the policy focus will need to shift to bridging a deeper psychological divide.

    Jeremy Ginges receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation.

    Nils Mallock does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. We interviewed hundreds of Israelis and Gazans – here’s why we fear for the ceasefire – https://theconversation.com/we-interviewed-hundreds-of-israelis-and-gazans-heres-why-we-fear-for-the-ceasefire-249522

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Powerless – another Asia-Pacific angle on the long siege of USAID

    COMMENTARY: By Robin Davies

    Much has been and much more will be written about the looming abolition of USAID.

    It’s “the removal of a huge and important tool of American global statecraft” (Konyndyk), or the wood-chipping of a “viper’s nest of radical-left marxists who hate America” (Musk) or, more reasonably, the unwarranted cancellation of an organisation that should have been reviewed and reformed.

    Commentators will have a lot to say, some of it exaggerated, about the varieties of harm caused by this decision, and about its legality.

    Some will welcome it from a conservative perspective, believing that USAID was either not aligned with or acting against the interests of the United States, or was proselytising wokeness, or was a criminal organisation.

    Some, often more quietly, will welcome it from an anti-imperialist or “Southern” perspective, believing that the agency was at worst a blunt instrument of US hegemony or at least a bastion of Western saviourism.

    I want to come at this topic from a different angle, by providing a brief personal perspective on USAID as an organisation, based on several decades of occasional interaction with it during my time as an Australian aid official.

    Essentially, I view USAID as a harried, hamstrung and traumatised organisation, not as a rogue agency or finely-tuned vehicle of US statecraft.

    Peer country representative
    My own experience with USAID began when I participated as a peer country representative in an OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) peer review of the US’s foreign assistance programme in the early 1990s, which included visits to US assistance programmes in Bangladesh and the Philippines, as well as to USAID headquarters in Washington DC.

    I later dealt with the agency in many other roles, including during postings to the OECD and Indonesia and through my work on global and regional climate change and health programmes, up to and including the pandemic years.

    An image is firmly lodged in my mind from that DAC peer review visit to Washington. We had had days of back-to-back meetings in USAID headquarters with a series of exhausted-looking, distracted and sometimes grumpy executives who didn’t have much reason to care what the OECD thought about the US aid effort.

    It was a muggy summer day. At one point a particularly grumpy meeting chair, who now rather reminds of me of Gary Oldman’s character in Slow Horses, mopped the sweat from his forehead with his necktie without appearing to be aware of what he was doing. Since then, that man has been my mental model of a USAID official.

    But why so exhausted, distracted and grumpy?

    Precisely because USAID is about the least freewheeling workplace one could construct. Certainly it is administratively independent, in the sense that it was created by an act of Congress, but it also receives its budget from the President and Congress — and that budget comes with so many strings attached, in the form of country- or issue-related “earmarks” or other directives that it might be logically impossible to allocate the funds as instructed.

    Some of these earmarks are broad and unsurprising (for example, specific allocations for HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment under the Bush-era PEPFAR program) while others represent niche interests (Senator John McCain once ridiculed earmarks pertaining to “peanuts, orangutans, gorillas, neotropical raptors, tropical fish and exotic plants”) — but none originates within USAID.

    Informal earmarks calculation
    I recall seeing an informal calculation showing that one could only satisfy all the percentage-based earmarks by giving most of the dollars several quite different jobs to do. A 2002 DAC peer review noted with disapproval some 270 earmarks or other directive provisions in aid legislation; by the time of the most recent peer review in 2022, this number was more like 700.

    Related in part to this congressional micro-management of its budget — along with the usual distrust of organisations that “send” money overseas — USAID labours under particularly gruelling accountability and reporting requirements.

    Andew Natsios — a former USAID Administrator and lifelong Republican who has recently come to USAID’s defence (albeit with arguments that not everybody would deem helpful) — wrote about this in 2010. In terms reminiscent of current events, he described the reign of terror of Lieutenant-General Herbert Beckington, a former Marine Corps officer who led USAID‘s Office of the Inspector General (OIG) from 1977 to 1994.

    He was a powerful iconic figure in Washington, and his influence over the structure of the foreign aid programME remains with USAID today. … Known as “The General” at USAID, Beckington was both feared and despised by career officers. Once referred to by USAID employees as “the agency’s J. Edgar Hoover — suspicious, vindictive, eager to think the worst” …

    At one point, he told the Washington Post that USAID’s white-collar crime rate was “higher than that of downtown Detroit.” … In a seminal moment in this clash between OIG and USAID, photographs were published of two senior officers who had been accused of some transgression being taken away in handcuffs by the IG investigators for prosecution, a scene that sent a broad chill through the career staff and, more than any other single event, forced a redirection of aid practice toward compliance.

    Labyrinthine accountability systems
    On top of the burdens of logically impossible programming and labyrinthine accountability systems is the burden of projecting American generosity. As far as humanly possible, and perhaps a little further, ways must be found of ensuring that American aid is sourced from American institutions, farms or factories and, if it is in the form of commodities, that it is transported on American vessels.

    Failing that, there must be American flags. I remember a USAID officer stationed in Banda Aceh after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami spending a non-trivial amount of his time seeking to attach sizeable flags to the front of trucks transporting US (but also non-US) emergency supplies around the province of Aceh.

    President Trump’s adviser Stephen Miller has somehow determined to his own satisfaction that the great majority (in fact 98 percent) of USAID personnel are donors to the Democratic Party. Whether or not that is true, let alone relevant, Democrat administrations have arguably been no kinder to USAID than Republican ones over the years.

    Natsios, in the piece cited above, notes that The General was installed under Carter, who ran on anti-Washington ticket, and that there were savage cuts — over 400 positions — to USAID senior career service staffing under Clinton. USAID gets battered no matter which way the wind blows.

    Which brings me back to necktie guy. It has always seemed to me that the platonic form of a USAID officer, while perhaps more likely than not to vote Democrat, is a tired and dispirited person, weary of politicians of all stripes, bowed under his or her burdens, bound to a desk and straitjacketed by accountability requirements, regularly buffeted by new priorities and abrupt restructures, and put upon by the ignorant and suspicious.

    Radical-left Marxists and vipers probably wouldn’t tolerate such an existence for long. Who would? I guess it’s either thieves and money-launderers or battle-scarred professionals intent on doing a decent job against tall odds.

    Robin Davies is an honorary professor at the Australian National University’s (ANU) Crawford School of Public Policy and managing editor of the Devpolicy Blog. He previously held senior positions at Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) and AusAID.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: French Overseas Minister Manuel Valls to visit Nouméa for key political talks

    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk

    French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls has announced he will travel to New Caledonia later this month to pursue talks on the French territory’s political future.

    These discussions on February 22 follow preliminary talks held last week in Paris in “bilateral” mode with a wide range of political stakeholders.

    The talks, which included pro-independence and pro-France parties, were said to have “allowed to restore a climate of trust between France and New Caledonia’s politicians”.

    Those meetings contributed to “a better understanding” of “everyone’s expectations” and “clarify everyone’s respective projects”, Valls said.

    Between February 4 and 9, Valls said he had met “at least twice” with delegations from all six parties and movements represented in New Caledonia’s Congress.

    The main goal was to resume the political process and allow everyone to “project themselves into the future” after the May 2024 riots.

    The riots caused 14 dead, hundreds of injured, arson and looting of hundreds of businesses and an estimated damage of some 2.2 billion euros (NZ$4 billion).

    ‘Touched all topics’
    “We have touched on all topics, extensively and without any taboo, including the events related to the riots that broke out in New Caledonia in May 2024.”

    Valls said in this post-riot situation, “everyone bears their own responsibilities, but the French State may also have a part of responsibility for what happened a few months ago”.

    New Caledonia’s key economic leaders Mimsy Daly and David Guyenne with French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls. Image: MEDEF NC/RNZ

    At the weekend, as part of the week-long talks, Valls and French Public Accounts Minister Amélie de Montchalin hosted a three-hour session dedicated to New Caledonia’s “devastated” economy.

    High on the agenda of the conference were crucial subjects, such as France’s assistance package, the need to reform and reduce costs in New Caledonia (including in the public service workforce) — as well as key sectors such as the health, tourism sectors and the nickel mining and processing industry — which has been facing an unprecedented crisis for the past two years.

    Unemployment benefits
    There was also a significant chapter dedicated to the duration of special unemployment benefits for those who have lost their jobs due to the riots’ destruction.

    Another sensitive point raised was the long and difficult process for businesses (especially very small, small and medium) damaged and destroyed for the same reasons to get insurance companies to pay compensation.

    Most insurance companies represented in New Caledonia have, since the May 2024 riots, cancelled the “riot risk” from their insurance coverage.

    This has so far made it impossible for riot-damaged businesses to renew their insurance cover under the same terms as before.

    French assistance to post-riot recovery in New Caledonia includes a 1 billion euros (NZ$1.8 billion) loan ceiling and a special fund of some 192 million euros (NZ$350 million) dedicated to the reconstruction of public buildings, mainly schools.

    New Caledonia’s students are returning to school next week as part of the new academic year.

    French Public Accounts Minister Amélie de Montchalin speaking from Paris to New Caledonia audience via a vision conference during the Economic Forum last Saturday. Image: NC la 1ère TV/RNZ

    Economy and politics closely intertwined
     Valls stressed once again that “there cannot be an economic recovery without a political compromise, just like there cannot be any lasting political solution without economic recovery”.

    “(France) needs to be there so that the economic slump (caused by the riots) does not turn into a social disaster which, in turn, would exacerbate political fractures”.

    “The government of France will be on your side. No matter what happens. We are absolutely taking charge of our responsibilities.”

    The “economic Forum” was also the first time delegations from all political tendencies, even though they did not talk to each other directly, were at least sitting in the same room.

    “Thank you all for being here, this is a beautiful picture of New Caledonia. Maybe the economy can do more than politics”, Valls told the Economic Forum last Saturday.

    Next step: ‘trilateral’ meetings
     The next step, in New Caledonia, is for Valls to attempt holding “trilateral” meetings (involving all parties, pro and anti-independence and France) around the same table, which was not the case in Paris last week.

    The format of those Nouméa talks, however, “remains to be determined”.

    Valls said he could stay in New Caledonia for as long as one week because, he said, “I want to take time”, including to not only meet politicians, but also economic and civil society stakeholders.

    The 62-year-old French minister, who is also a former Prime Minister, as a political adviser to the then French Socialist Prime Minister Michel Rocard, was involved in the signing of the Matignon Accord, signed in 1988 between France, pro-independence and pro-France parties, which effectively put an end to half a decade of quasi civil war in the French Pacific archipelago.

    He also stressed that any future discussion would be based on the “foundation and basis” of the Matignon and Nouméa Accords which, he said, was “the only possible way”.

    The Nouméa Accord, signed in 1998 between the same parties, paved the way for a gradual transfer of powers from France to New Caledonia as well as a status of wider autonomy, often described in the legal jargon as “sui generis”.

    Until now, under the Nouméa Accord, the key powers remaining to be transferred by France were foreign affairs (shared with New Caledonia), currency, law and order, defence and justice.

    New Caledonia’s authorities have not requested the implementation of the transfer for another three portfolios: higher education, research, audiovisual communication and the administration of communes.

    An exit protocol
    But the 1998 deal also included an exit protocol, depending on the results of three referendums on self-determination.

    Those referendums were held in 2018, 2020 and 2021 and they all yielded a majority of votes against independence.

    However, New Caledonia’s pro-independence movement largely boycotted the third poll and has since contested its validity.

    Pro-France and pro-independence camps hold radically different views on how New Caledonia should evolve in its post-Nouméa Accord (1998) future status.

    The options mentioned so far by local parties range from a quick independence (a five-year process to begin in September 2025 following the anticipated signature of a “Kanaky Accord”) to some sort of yet undefined “shared sovereignty” that could imply an “independence-association”, or a status of “associated state” for New Caledonia.

    Pro-France parties, however, have previously stated they were determined to push for New Caledonia to remain part of France and, in corollary, that New Caledonia’s three provinces (North, South and Loyalty Islands) should be granted more separate powers, a formula sometimes described as “internal federalism” but criticised by pro-independence parties as a form of “apartheid”.

    Complicating factor
    Another complicating factor is that both sides — pro-independence and pro-France camps — are also divided between moderate and radical components.

    Last week, during question time in Parliament, Valls expressed concern at the current polarised situation: “People talk about racism, civil war. A common and shared project can only be built through dialogue.

    “The (previously signed, respectively in 1988 and 1998) Matignon and Nouméa Accords, both bearing the prospect of a decolonisation process, are the foundation of our discussions. I would even say they are part of my DNA,” the minister said.

    Referring to any future outcome of the current talks, he said they will have to be “inventive, ambitious, bold in order to build a compromise and do away with any radical position, all radical positions, in order to offer a common project for New Caledonia, for its youth, for concord and for peace”.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Hamas report to mediators accuses Israel of pervasive Gaza ceasefire violations

    As Benjamin Netanyahu threatens to resume war, Hamas outlines widespread Israeli ceasefire violations in document sent to the mediators.

    By Jeremy Scahill and Sharif Abdel Kouddous of Dropsite News

    Hamas officials submitted a two-page report to mediators yesterday listing a wide range of Israeli violations of the Gaza ceasefire since the agreement went into effect on January 19 — including the killing of civilians, repeated ground and air incursions, the beating and humiliation of Palestinian captives during their release and the deportation of some without their consent, and the denial of humanitarian aid.

    Drop Site News obtained a copy of the report delivered to mediators from Qatar and Egypt.

    “Hamas is committed to the ceasefire agreement if the occupation is committed to the agreement,” Hamas said in a statement.

    “We confirm that the occupation is the party that did not abide by its commitments, and it bears responsibility for any complications or delays.”

    The move comes in response to accusations by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Hamas had violated the agreement, threatening a full resumption of the war — yet it was Israel’s nearly daily breaches of the deal that prompted Hamas to announce it would postpone the next release of Israeli captives.

    On Monday, Abu Obeida, the spokesperson for the Al Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing, announced the next planned release of three Israeli captives, scheduled for Saturday, would be “postponed indefinitely”.

    Abu Obeida cited “delays in allowing displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza, targeting them with airstrikes and gunfire across various areas of the Strip, and failing to facilitate the entry of humanitarian aid as agreed”.

    Israel violating ceasefire agreement
    Hamas issued a statement soon afterwards reiterating that Israel was violating the agreement by blocking aid, attacking civilians, and restricting movement in Gaza, and warning that the next release of captives would be postponed until it complied.

    “By issuing this statement five full days ahead of the scheduled prisoner handover, Hamas aims to grant mediators sufficient time to pressure the occupation to fulfill its obligations,” the statement said.

    Three Israeli officials and two mediators speaking anonymously to The New York Times confirmed that Israel had not fulfilled its obligations to send humanitarian aid into Gaza. This fact was mentioned in the 9th paragraph of the Times story.

    In response, President Trump, on Monday told reporters that the ceasefire should be cancelled if Hamas did not release all the remaining captives it was holding in Gaza by midday Saturday, warning “all hell is going to break out”.

    Yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doubled down on Trump’s comments.

    “If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon,” Netanyahu said in a video statement, “the ceasefire will end, and the IDF will return to intense fighting until Hamas is finally defeated.”

    Netanyahu reportedly ordered the military to add more troops in and around Gaza to prepare for “every scenario” if the captives were not released.

    It was not immediately clear if he was referring to the three Israelis originally scheduled for release Saturday, all remaining captives, or all living Israelis slated for release in Phase 1.

    Document submitted to mediators
    The two-page document submitted by Hamas to mediators yesterday divided the violations into five separate categories: Field Violations, Prisoners, Humanitarian Aid, Denial of Essential Supplies, and Political Violations.

    Israel has repeatedly violated the ceasefire deal since it came into effect, targeting Palestinians in Gaza on an almost daily basis. The document outlines 269 “field violations” by the Israeli military, including the killing of 26 Palestinians and the wounding of 59 others.

    Page 1 of the Hamas report of ceasefire violations by Israel. Image: Hamas screenshot APR/DDN

    The number of people killed appears to be a dramatic undercount compared to the official toll documented by the Ministry of Health in Gaza.

    The Director-General of the Health Ministry, Dr Monir al-Barsh, announced separately yesterday that 92 Palestinians had been killed and 822 wounded in “direct targeting” by the Israeli military since January 19, when the ceasefire came into effect.

    The report also lists repeated ground incursions into Gaza beyond the designated buffer zone, particularly in the Philadelphi corridor — the 14km strip of land that runs along the border of Egypt.

    These incursions “were accompanied by gunfire and resulted in the deaths of citizens and the demolition of homes,” the report said.

    It also accused Israeli authorities of subjecting Palestinian captives to beatings and humiliation during their release, forcibly deporting released captives to Gaza without their coordination or consent, preventing families of deported prisoners from leaving the West Bank to join them, and delaying prisoner releases by several hours.

    The report also says that fewer than 25 fuel trucks per day have been allowed into Gaza, which is half of the allotted 50 fuel trucks per day, as outlined in the deal. The entry of commercial fuel was blocked entirely, the report says, again in violation of the agreement.

    Only 53,000 tents allowed
    Just over 53,000 tents were allowed into Gaza, the reports says, out of the 200,000 allotted and no mobile housing units out of the 60,000 agreed on.

    Heavy machinery for the removal of massive amounts of debris and retrieval of bodies was similarly blocked, with only four machines allowed in.

    Israel also blocked the entry of supplies to repair and operate the power plant and electrical grid, the report said.

    No medical supplies, ambulances have been allowed in and no equipment for civil defense teams. Meanwhile banks were not allowed to receive cash to replenish a severe currency shortage.

    The report ends on “Political Violations” criticising statements by the “Israeli Prime Minister and ministers openly calling for the expulsion of Gaza’s population, sending a clear message that the occupation does not wish to honour the agreement and aims to implement Trump’s plan to displace Gaza’s residents”.

    It also criticises the “deliberate delay” in starting the negotiations on Phase 2 of the ceasefire and “the introduction of impossible conditions.”

    A summary of the Israeli ceasefire violations. Image: QudsNews

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Helping teachers learn what works in the classroom − and what doesn’t − will get a lot harder without the Department of Education’s Institute of Education Sciences

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Nicole M. McNeil, Professor of Psychology, University of Notre Dame

    A U.S. flag and an Education Department flag fly outside the U.S. Department of Education building on Feb. 4, 2025, in Washington, D.C. Alex Wong/Getty Images

    The future of the Institute of Education Sciences, the nonpartisan research arm of the Education Department, is suddenly in jeopardy. The Department of Government Efficiency, a Trump administration task force led by Elon Musk, has announced plans to cancel most of the institute’s contracts and training grants.

    The institute’s annual budget is less that US$1 billion – or less than 1% of the Department of Education’s budget – but it advances education by supporting rigorous research and sharing data on student progress. It also sets standards for evidence-based practices and formalizes the criteria for evaluating educational research.

    In short, the Institute of Education Sciences identifies what works and what doesn’t.

    As cognitive scientists who engage in educational research, we believe this often overlooked institute is key to advancing national education standards and preventing pseudoscience from entering classrooms.

    Dissatisfaction with US education

    Getting education right can help address some of the nation’s biggest challenges, such as high school dropout rates and poverty.

    But throughout U.S. history, dissatisfaction with student achievement levels has spurred major education reform efforts.

    Russia’s launch of the Sputnik space satellite, for example, triggered the 1958 National Defense Education Act. That measure attempted to strengthen science and math instruction to bolster Cold War defense efforts.

    Concerns about educational inequality led to the 1965 Elementary and Secondary Education Act, which funded schools serving students from low-income families.

    After President Jimmy Carter created the Department of Education in 1979, small-government conservatives, including Ronald Reagan, pledged to abolish it.

    As president, however, Reagan appointed former education commissioner Terrel Bell as secretary of education. Bell convened the National Commission on Excellence in Education. And in 1983 it produced A Nation at Risk, a report that warned of “a rising tide of mediocrity” in schools.

    It motivated national leaders to push for higher academic standards.

    In 1997, growing alarm over many students’ poor reading levels led to the National Reading Panel, which emphasized evidence-based reading instruction.

    In response to continuing concern about U.S. education, President George W. Bush partnered with U.S. Sen. Edward M. Kennedy to pass the No Child Left Behind Act in 2002. The law attempted to raise standards by mandating testing and interventions for low-performing schools. It provided incentives for successful schools and punishment for failing ones.

    This law significantly improved achievement, particularly in math.

    President George W. Bush appears at the bill-signing ceremony of the No Child Left Behind Act at Hamilton High School in Hamilton, Ohio, on Jan. 8, 2002.
    Tim Sloan/AFP via Getty Images

    Institute of Education Sciences

    Just months after Congress approved the No Child Left Behind Act, it established the Institute of Education Sciences to provide independent education research, becoming the first federal agency dedicated to using scientific research to guide education policy.

    Before the institute, educational research was fragmented, ideologically driven and inaccessible to parents and teachers. Findings were buried in books or locked behind paywalls.

    The institute broke that cycle. Structured with statutory independence, it is led by a director and a board composed of researchers, not political appointees.

    It produces replicable results and makes them freely available to the public.

    For example, the What Works Clearinghouse, launched in 2003, provides educators with guidance on effective practices. A school board seeking to adopt a new curriculum can find answers on the site about effective approaches.

    The clearinghouse distills research into clear recommendations. It spares local decision-makers from having to wade through complex studies. The site also references original studies and offers descriptions for local decision-makers who want to examine the evidence for themselves.

    Since 2007, it has published 30 practice guides. They cover topics such as teaching fractions, improving reading and reducing high school dropout rates.

    These guides synthesize the best available evidence, rather than relying on one study, leader or political ideology.

    Yet, the clearinghouse may be one of the parts of the Institute of Education Sciences on the chopping block.

    Evidence increases freedom

    From the 20th-century belief that instruction should be tailored to students’ skull shape to the 1970s movement promoting unstructured learning in classrooms without walls, pseudoscience and fads have obstructed improvements in education.

    The Institute of Education Sciences protects educational freedom by countering these claims.

    Some argue that free markets should dictate educational choices. They believe parents and school boards will naturally gravitate toward effective programs while ineffective ones fade away.

    But education markets often reward programs with the best marketing, not the best results. Psychologists who study scientific thinking have documented how pseudoscientific programs gain traction through compelling narratives rather than evidence.

    Meanwhile, public trust in expertise is declining, and pseudoscientific products flood the market. Programs such as Brain Balance and Learning Rx thrive in the $2 billion brain training industry.

    Marketed directly to parents of children with learning difficulties, these products use slick advertising and claim to “rewire” children’s brains to boost learning. Families pay thousands for programs that lack credible, peer-reviewed evidence of lasting benefits.

    Programs designed by university scholars also aren’t immune to the allure of anecdote over hard data.

    Former Columbia professor Lucy Calkins downplayed the importance of teaching phonics, thus harming a generation of students’ reading development. Stanford professor Jo Boaler’s controversial ideas delayed Algebra I in some California schools until ninth grade and discouraged timed arithmetic practice.

    And Drug Abuse Resistance Education thrived for decades despite overwhelming evidence that it did not work.

    These examples reveal how well-intentioned but ineffective educational products gain traction through public appeal rather than rigorous research.

    The future of IES

    In 2007 the Office of Management and Budget awarded the Institute of Education Sciences the highest score on its program assessment rating tool, a distinction earned by only 18% of federal programs.

    But most Americans probably never heard of this.

    And that highlights the institute’s major weakness: insufficient emphasis on sharing its findings and practice guides with the public and policymakers.

    The institute would do well to publicize its findings more extensively so that parents and education leaders can better access rigorous research to improve education.

    Whatever changes are made to the Department of Education, preserving the institute’s role in providing research on what works best – and ensuring continuous exchanges between research and practice – will benefit the American public.

    Nicole M. McNeil has served as an investigator on projects funded by IES, including one current project on leveraging technology to improve children’s mathematical understanding. She has given invited talks to trainees in IES predoctoral training programs and has served on IES grant review and awards panels. She regularly supports educators in engaging with IES’s What Works Clearinghouse (WWC) and its Practice Guides as part of her capacity-building efforts to connect volunteer tutors to cognitive science through an AmeriCorps VGF grant.

    Robert Stuart Siegler has received funding from IES for four grants; the most recent of which ended in 2018. He also received funds from IES for heading the Fractions Practice Guide Panel and for writing a review for IES of findings from research that the institute funded.

    – ref. Helping teachers learn what works in the classroom − and what doesn’t − will get a lot harder without the Department of Education’s Institute of Education Sciences – https://theconversation.com/helping-teachers-learn-what-works-in-the-classroom-and-what-doesnt-will-get-a-lot-harder-without-the-department-of-educations-institute-of-education-sciences-247675

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Is Tesla’s sales slump down to Elon Musk?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By James Obiegbu, Lecturer in Experiential Marketing and Management, Bournemouth University

    Frederic Legrand – COMEO/Shutterstock

    Over the past couple of years, the seemingly steady rightward drift of Elon Musk has culminated in actions and statements that have sparked broad controversy. Musk – visionary CEO of Tesla, SpaceX and founder of X Corp – is a man on a mission to get humanity to Mars. He is also the wealthiest person on the planet.

    Most recently, these controversies include his endorsement and support of Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, gestures interpreted as a Nazi salute during Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration and accusations of election interference.

    In January, sales of Tesla cars slumped across five European countries – the UK, France, Sweden, Norway and the Netherlands. Sales were down too in California – the US state with the largest car market. And according to at least one survey, Musk and his politics could be a significant part of the problem.

    When CEOs are in the public eye, their personal brands and values, and those of the companies they represent, can be hard to separate. Our research has found that, often, human identity and reputation will influence the CEO’s brand identity and reputation – and vice versa. As a human being, Musk’s personal actions and statements directly affect the companies he represents. His high-profile persona makes it difficult to separate the two.

    This is why Musk’s controversial comments and political endorsements have alienated some Tesla consumers, particularly in progressive markets such as Europe and California. In these places, Tesla has historically been popular with environmentally aware consumers. When the profiles of a CEO and his or her brand are not aligned, it’s a problem that can undermine the brand value of both the CEO and the company.

    Artists, politicians, CEOs and other public figures tend to attract fans whose personal values can at times deviate from those of the figurehead. Where this happens, devoted fans might be left at an impasse on how to respond to these figures or the products of companies or businesses they are associated with.

    A common misconception is that smitten fans are too obsessed to express their distaste. Instead, they are likely to follow blindly and defend the actions of their heroes. Intense actions of “fan armies” on social media platforms have not helped with these assumptions.

    But in fact, our research has shown that devoted fans can be critical. We found they are more likely than less devoted consumers to respond in extreme opposition when they feel betrayed by the behaviour of personalities they identify with or hold in high regard.

    In the case of personalities like Musk, whose companies produce physical products, loyal fans and consumers could respond in a number of ways. A few hardcore Tesla fans and Musk loyalists might dismiss critiques against his behaviour as attacks against free speech or their own beliefs. They are likely to continue buying Teslas regardless – and may even adjust their own beliefs to align with those of their “hero”.

    Out of step

    For other consumers, owning a Tesla may no longer signal purely their beliefs about sustainability. There may be a nod to political or ideological affiliations that do not align with their own.

    Some consumers may want to dissociate with Tesla if Musk’s behaviour is seen as problematic in their social circle. However, as a purchase requiring high involvement and commitment, switching from Tesla to another EV might be difficult. The recent trend of Tesla owners placing apology stickers on their vehicles is a way of negotiating the tension between owning a Tesla and the behaviour of the CEO they do not agree with.

    The stickers provide a means of separating themselves from Musk’s actions while managing the fear of being perceived negatively within their social groups. This is likely to result in a gradual brand erosion rather than an immediate sales drop.

    On the other hand, customers of companies such as craft beer brand BrewDog – a firm that has in the past been accused of fostering a culture of fear – may be more responsive to bad CEO behaviour. They at least can switch to an alternative brand at little cost. (BrewDog, for its part, apologised and said it was “committed to doing better”.)

    And if Remain voters dislike inventor James Dyson’s stance on Brexit, they might be annoyed but still able to justify keeping a mid-value item like a vacuum cleaner (that is used privately in the home after all) until it breaks, perhaps switching for future purchases rather than abandoning outright.

    Consumers can respond in a variety of ways when a figurehead CEO disappoints them. But brands taking blind, uncritical loyalty as a given – even from devoted fans – do so at their peril.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Is Tesla’s sales slump down to Elon Musk? – https://theconversation.com/is-teslas-sales-slump-down-to-elon-musk-248727

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Even as polarization surges, Americans believe they live in a compassionate country

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Tara Sonenshine, Edward R. Murrow Professor of Practice in Public Diplomacy, Tufts University

    Most Americans responding to a survey said compassion is declining but still strong. stellalevi/DigitalVision Vectors via Getty Images

    Compassion comes easily to me.

    As the granddaughter of immigrants from Lithuania and Poland who spoke little English, I understand what it’s like to be treated as a stranger in America.

    As a journalist, I covered stories of war and trauma in the 1990s, including the crushing of Chinese protests in Tiananmen Square and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, followed by the Soviet Union’s collapse two years later. I covered the war between Iraq and Iran. I witnessed ethnic strife in South Africa and the toll poverty takes in Mexico.

    As a professor of cultural engagement and public diplomacy, I have watched and studied how compassion can help build and strengthen civil society.

    And having worked in senior levels of the U.S. government for Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama on international conflict resolution, I have learned that compassion is a key ingredient of peacemaking.

    Especially now, as President Donald Trump seeks to deport millions of immigrants living in the U.S. without authorization and to stop funding the U.S. Agency for International Development, which has long spent billions of dollars a year helping the world’s poorest people, compassion seems lacking among U.S. leaders.

    Perhaps that all explains my curiosity about a new study on the state of compassion in America – part of the glue that holds communities together.

    Defining compassion

    Sociologists define compassion as the human regard for the suffering of others, and the notion of using action to alleviate this pain.

    The report that caught my eye was issued in January 2025 by the Muhammad Ali Center, which the late boxer co-founded 20 years ago in Louisville, Kentucky, to advance social justice.

    As the Ali Center explains, compassion starts with the individual – self-care and personal wellness. It then radiates out to the wider community in the form of action and engagement.

    You can see compassion at work in the actions of a Pasadena, California, girl, who started a donation hub for teens affected by fires that ripped through the Los Angeles region in early 2025. She began collecting sports bras, hair ties and fashionable sweaters – helping hundreds of her peers begin to recover from their losses in material and emotional ways.

    It’s also visible in the estimated 6.8 million people in the U.S. who donate blood each year, according to the American Red Cross.

    Resilience in America

    While Ali is best known for his battles in the ring and his outspoken political views, he also helped those in need in the U.S. and other countries through large charitable donations and his participation in United Nations missions to countries like Afghanistan, where he helped deliver millions of meals to hungry people.

    The researchers who worked on the Ali Center report interviewed more than 5,000 U.S. adults living in 12 cities in 2024 in order to learn more about the prevalence of compassionate behaviors such as charitable giving, volunteering and assisting others in their recovery from disasters.

    They found that the desire to help others still animates many Americans despite the nation’s current polarization and divisive politics.

    The center has created an index it calls the “net compassion score.” It approximates the degree to which Americans give their time and money to programs and activities that nurture and strengthen their communities.

    Cities with high compassion scores have more community engagement and civic participation than those with low scores. A higher-scoring community performs better when it comes to things like public housing and mental health resources, for example. Its residents report more career opportunities, better communications between local government and citizens, more community programs and more optimism around economic development where they live.

    The report provides some clues as to what drives compassionate behavior in a city: a sense of spirituality, good education, decent health care, resources for activities like sports, and opportunities to engage in local politics.

    All told, Americans rate their country as a 9 on a scale that runs from minus 100 to 100.

    The report also identified some troubling obstacles that stand in the way of what it calls “self-compassion” – meaning how volunteers and donors treat their own mental and physical health. Frequent struggles with self-care can lead to rising levels of isolation and loneliness.

    Jeni Stepanek, left, chair of the Muhammad Ali Index; Lonnie Ali, co-founder and vice chair of the Muhammad Ali Center; and DeVone Holt, the center’s president and CEO, at the launch of the Muhammad Ali Index on Jan. 16, 2025.
    Bryan Bedder/Getty Images for Muhammad Ali Center

    Doubting their own capacity

    The 2025 Compassion Report’s findings show that many Americans still want to live in a compassionate country but also that Americans view the country as less compassionate today than four years ago.

    The report delves into gaps in compassion. About one-third of those interviewed acknowledged that there are groups toward whom they feel less compassionate toward, such as people who have been convicted of crimes, immigrants living in the U.S. without authorization and the rich.

    Only 29% said they feel compassion toward everyone.

    The report also identifies gender gaps. Despite expressing greater awareness of systemic challenges, the women surveyed reported less self-compassion than men.

    It’s not the first compassion study ever done. But I believe that this one is unique due to its focus on specific cities, and how it assessed limits on the compassion some people feel toward certain groups.

    Helping health and humanity

    The Compassion Institute, another nonprofit, seeks to weave compassion training into health care education to “create a more caring and humanitarian world.” It cites the benefits of compassion for human beings, with everything from reducing stress to alleviating the effects of disease on the mind and body.

    Academic institutions, including Stanford University, have conducted many studies on how teaching compassion can guide health care professionals to both treat patients better and achieve better outcomes.

    A team of Emory University researchers examined how training people to express more compassion can reduce stress hormones levels, triggering positive brain responses that improve immune responses.

    Offering an advantage

    Although there are plenty of adorable videos of dogs and cats behaving kindly with each other or their human companions, historically compassion has differentiated humans from animals.

    Human beings possess powers of emotional reasoning that give us an edge.

    Scholars are still working to discover how much of human compassion is rooted in emotional reasoning. Another factor they’ve identified is the aftermath of trauma. Studies have found evidence that it can increase empathy later on.

    You might imagine that in a world of hurt, there’s a deficit of compassion for others. But the Ali Center’s report keeps alive the notion that Americans remain compassionate people who want to help others.

    My experiences around the world and within the U.S. have taught me that human beings both have the power to be violent and destructive. But despite it all, there is, within all of us, the innate ability and desire to be compassionate. That is a net positive for our country.

    Tara Sonenshine does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Even as polarization surges, Americans believe they live in a compassionate country – https://theconversation.com/even-as-polarization-surges-americans-believe-they-live-in-a-compassionate-country-247677

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Latin America is moving fast to protect democracy from excesses of big tech

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sebastian Smart, Senior Research Fellow in Access to Justice, Law and Technology, Anglia Ruskin University

    Brazil’s president Lula da Silva is one of the Latin American leaders who are concerned about misinformation being used to undermine democracy. Focuspix/Shutterstock

    Bosses of tech giants Meta, Google and X had front row seats at Donald Trump’s recent presidential inauguration. This special treatment highlighted the increasingly cosy relationship between leaders of technology companies and the White House.

    Just a few weeks before the ceremony, Meta boss Mark Zuckerberg had pledged to “work with President Trump to push back on governments around the world that are going after American companies and pushing to censor more”.

    Zuckerberg also highlighted, and criticised, the restrictions that the European Union and Latin American nations had put in place to legally restrict the social media giants. These include liability for moderation and limiting targeted advertising.

    However, Latin America is emerging as the region which is moving fast to protect democratic institutions from misuse of social media, and other technology.

    For instance, Brazil’s proposed fake news bill (Lei das Fake News) seeks to regulate social media and curb misinformation. It has faced strong opposition from Google. The bill is still under consideration by Brazil’s Congress.



    Read more:
    Meta’s shift to ‘community notes’ risks hurting online health info providers more than ever

    Other examples include how, in August 2024, Brazil’s Supreme Court temporarily banned X for failing to comply with legal requirements, including blocking social media accounts accused of spreading misinformation linked to the 2022 election. X had also failed to appoint a local legal official.

    The platform remained suspended until October 8 2024, when X complied with the court’s orders, paid fines totalling 28 million reals (£3.9 million), and appointed a legal representative.

    Brazil temporarily banned social media network X.

    The court decision has been part of a broader effort in Brazil to protect its democracy and restrict potential disruption from use of technology or social media.

    This push intensified after allies of then president Jair Bolsonaro used social media to spread misinformation (ahead of the 2022 elections), and then attack democratic institutions, and mobilise supporters in the lead-up to the January 8 2023 attacks on government buildings.

    Digital platforms were used to spread false claims of voter fraud and discredit mainstream media as well as spread misinformation about Bolsonaro’s opponents. These efforts fuelled conspiracy theories and protests, which later turned violent. In response, Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court tightened regulations, ordering platforms to remove false election claims.



    Read more:
    Elon Musk’s feud with Brazilian judge is much more than a personal spat − it’s about national sovereignty, freedom of speech and the rule of law

    But the region’s regulatory efforts extend beyond social media into other emerging technologies. Colombia, Ecuador and Chile – among others – are currently debating regulations of artificial intelligence (AI) and looking at AI’s human rights and environmental impact.

    Chile was the first country to recognise neurorights (brain rights) in its constitution, ensuring protections against the misuse of neurotechnology, such as brain-computer interfaces that could read or manipulate thoughts, emotions or cognitive processes. These developing technologies could be used in medicine, but also raise ethical concerns about privacy and cognitive freedom.

    Political leaders across Latin America also regularly challenge global technology leaders over their effect on society. Chile’s president, Gabriel Boric, has criticised Elon Musk’s support for far-right movements. Brazil’s president, Lula da Silva, said the world did not have to put up with Musk’s “far-right free-for-all just because he is rich”. Brazil’s first lady, Janja Lula da Silva, was even more direct. During a global summit on social media regulation, she declared: “I’m not afraid of you, fuck you, Elon Musk.”

    History of authoritarianism

    Many people in Latin America remember how political power was abused in the recent past to undermine democracy. During the military dictatorships of the 1970s and 1980s in countries such as Chile, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay, many businesses supported repressive regimes.

    After the coup in Chile in 1973, Augusto Pinochet’s authoritarian government privatised industries and cut social protections with help from the Chicago Boys, a group of US-trained Latin American economists. The regime crushed dissent through state violence, and imprisoned and tortured thousands of people.

    In the early 1970s, Chilean president Salvador Allende had tried to establish the Cybersyn Project, an ambitious initiative to create an economic planning system using networked telex machines and an early form of algorithmic decision-making. It was designed to enhance state control over the economy, while reducing dependence on foreign corporations. But Cybersyn was dismantled after the US-backed military coup that installed Pinochet’s dictatorship.

    Today, Latin America may be better positioned to counter foreign influence than it was in the 1970s. Brazil’s leadership at the recent G20 global summit, where it successfully pushed for social media and artificial intelligence regulation, showed that there is a regional will to push back against the demands, and power, of Silicon Valley’s technology giants.

    The question is whether these countries can sustain their efforts against pressure from big companies, economic pressure (such as tariffs) and shifting geopolitical alliances. If they do, Latin American nations could provide a much-needed counterweight to corporate influence, and an example to the rest of the world of what could be achieved.

    Sebastian Smart receives funding from FONDECYT-Chile

    – ref. Latin America is moving fast to protect democracy from excesses of big tech – https://theconversation.com/latin-america-is-moving-fast-to-protect-democracy-from-excesses-of-big-tech-248487

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Is it true you need to love yourself before you can find romantic love? Here’s what philosophers say

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tony Milligan, Research Fellow in the Philosophy of Ethics, King’s College London

    The Dreamer by Cecilia Beaux (1894). Wiki Commons

    Consider the popular idea that you need to love yourself first, before you can find love from others. It was set out in the German psychologist Erich Fromm’s book The Art of Loving in 1956 and has been popularised in recent years by drag queen RuPaul’s catchphrase “if you can’t love yourself, how in the hell are you gonna love somebody else?”

    But is it actually true? If we think of self-love in an extreme sense, as raging egocentricity, then the answer is a resounding “no”. Philosophers who reject self-love do so for this reason. Iris Murdoch is a case in point. She warned her readers that the proper direction of attention should always be outwards. Love others, not yourself.

    This is a very sacrificial way of thinking about love. If we think about love as the most important way of valuing anything, then of course self-love is desirable. The person who has no self-love has no proper sense of their own worth as a unique, feeling being.

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    This is the insight captured by the idea that we must love ourselves first. It’s endorsed by the classical philosophical tradition and is especially evident in discussions of friendship by Aristotle and Cicero where a friend is “another self” – someone who is due the same love that we have for ourselves.

    They treat love for ourselves as a basic background to a good life, and hold that something has gone badly wrong when any of us lacks such an attitude. This is a far less sacrificial way of thinking. One in which being loved and loving ourselves turn out to be inseparable.

    This is the insight that the catchphrase about loving yourself first plays upon. But it puts things the wrong way around. Coming to love ourselves often happens as a result of being loved by another person. It is an outcome, not a first step.

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    In your 20s and 30s, you may find that all around you people have paired off. There is a game going on, played out with varying degrees of success. Some people find themselves always on the outside of this game. They have never had a girlfriend or boyfriend. Never even received a Valentine’s Day card. They may have wanted these things, and waited for them, but nothing has happened.

    Many people live like this, with an exclusion from romantic love that makes it feel almost impossible to form an appropriate sense of self-worth. Those in this position cannot will themselves into self-love as a way of propelling themselves into the game. And they also cannot educate themselves into self-love.

    In your 20s and 30s, you may find that all around you, people have paired off. Detail from Hesperus, the Evening Star, Sacred to Lovers by Joseph Noel Paton (1857).
    Kelvingrove Art Gallery and Museum

    Even philosophers cannot do so. Immanuel Kant argued in his Groundwork of the Metaphysics of Morals (1785) that we are all autonomous rational agents and that this makes us equally valuable. But for those without a romantic history, their experience is not one of being equally valued.

    What they need is not a special effort of will but the experience of being loved. Or of having been loved by someone that they themselves have loved. We cannot draw a sense of our own value from the love of someone we do not admire, or from the kind of abusive person who systematically undermines our sense of self-esteem. Being loved by someone dreadful, or just wildly unpleasant, is unlikely to fill any of us with warm fuzzy feelings. No matter how smitten we are. No matter what flowers and chocolate they send.

    Being loved by someone we love, someone we value, is a different matter. Nothing shows us our own value so effectively.

    A good deal of my own sense of value, for example, does not come from a recognition of my autonomy or from a self-willed effort to think nice thoughts about myself. It stems instead from being loved by my wife Suzanne. Without this experience of being loved, everything else would be diminished.

    Being lovable

    Most of us enjoy an approximation to this experience of being loved long before we ever experience actual romantic love.

    Most of us have been loved by our parents, and up to a point by our siblings and friends. We even may have been loved by our pets – or at least by the dog, if not by the cat. But at a certain point, we want love of a more intimate and grownup sort. Love from someone who could simply pass us by in the street, but who does not do so. Without it, an adult sense of self-worth may remain permanently out of reach.

    This does not mean to say that that every day must be a whirlwind of romance, or even that we have to be continuously in a relationship.

    Suzanne and myself seem to have mated for life. We still buy one another flowers and chocolates for Valentine’s Day rather than gift vouchers and lawnmowers. Suzanne gets the flowers, I get the chocolates. It is a ritual in which we both win. But many people are just as content moving from one relationship to another.

    What seems to matter in each case is seeing ourselves as lovable. Whether we are serial daters, or hibernate with a lifelong partner like two creatures in a burrow. What we really need is the experience of having been loved romantically, at some point in time. And the knowledge that it could happen again. A recognition that we may sometimes have bad romantic luck, and may have made mistakes – but that we remain fundamentally lovable.

    Tony Milligan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Is it true you need to love yourself before you can find romantic love? Here’s what philosophers say – https://theconversation.com/is-it-true-you-need-to-love-yourself-before-you-can-find-romantic-love-heres-what-philosophers-say-247298

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump tariffs: there may be silver linings in the trade war storm clouds

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Scott Mahadeo, Senior Lecturer in Macroeconomics, University of Portsmouth

    bella1105/Shutterstock

    US tariffs – both threatened and imposed – on trade partners including China, Canada, Mexico and the EU quickly set off waves of retaliatory measures. The latest commodities in the sights of president Donald Trump are steel and aluminium – with tariffs of 25% announced for all imports. But not only do these taxes disrupt well-established trade flows, they ignite concerns over the very future of globalisation.

    Yet amid this uncertainty, it’s possible that there may be a silver lining. Trump may inadvertently be paving the way for a realignment of trade relationships and the emergence of new economic blocs. Such partnerships could foster more resilient and regionally focused economic cooperation.

    Trump’s decision to levy tariffs on its major trading partners disrupts the fundamental tenets of the gravity model of trade. According to this theory, trade between two nations is largely determined by their economic size and proximity. For instance, introducing tariffs to the close economic relationship between the US and Canada, underpinned by their shared border, effectively increases the distance between the two by raising costs and reducing the volume of bilateral trade.

    However, these disruptions can inadvertently encourage diversification of trade relationships. As companies and governments seek to mitigate the risks associated with tariffs, they may begin to explore new markets and alternative supply chains. This could ultimately lead to a more dispersed and – potentially – more stable global trade system.

    Yet as Trump continues to test the limits of his power, he is learning it is not so easy to defy gravity. Already, the president has dialled down tariffs on Canada and Mexico, while China has struck back with retaliatory measures.

    One positive spin-off of the trade war may be the reinforcement of regional alliances. With traditional trade flows disrupted, countries are increasingly incentivised to strengthen ties with neighbouring economies.

    North American outlook

    Canada and Mexico, long considered natural trading partners of the US, might pivot towards deepening their economic cooperation. They may also look to bilateral agreements with other partners as well as seeking new markets, strengthening ties with China and Japan.

    The USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) provides a strong foundation for trade. But attempts to dismantle this arrangement could see Canada and Mexico accelerating efforts to build closer economic ties with other regions, reducing their exposure to the US market.

    Trump reveals his plans for sweeping steel tariffs on “everybody”.

    Trump’s planned tariffs on steel threaten to undermine the USMCA. After all, it is designed to foster integrated supply chains and low-tariff economic cooperation among the three countries. This is likely to escalate trade tensions across the bloc, forcing a reassessment of the trade agreement’s key terms and destabilising the established relationships.

    European Union outlook

    The imposition of tariffs on the EU could lead to deepening integration among its member states. Faced with new pressures from the US, the EU might accelerate initiatives aimed at consolidating internal trade, harmonising regulations and promoting intra-European supply chains.

    Member states, with France at the forefront, are already advocating for a united response to counteract US protectionism. They hope to signal a strong political commitment to resist the pressures from Trump.

    Asia-Pacific outlook

    China, as the world’s second-largest economy behind the US, may seek to expand its trade relationships in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. As China’s economic growth model is export-led, it may seek stronger partnerships with regional players and invest in new trade agreements. This could potentially give rise to an even more integrated Asian economic community.

    A new economic order

    Whatever else plays out, these tariff wars signal a reordering of the global economic landscape. Such disruptions, though painful in the short term, can create long-term changes that rebalance economic systems. The natural trading partner hypothesis reinforces this view by highlighting how countries with shared cultural, historical and geographical ties are likely to deepen their economic relationships in the face of external shocks.

    Table of US trade

    Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (2025)
    Author provided

    In this new order, traditional superpowers may find themselves challenged by unified responses from other nations. By imposing tariffs, the US risks isolating itself from these emerging alliances, while its major trading partners may become united in their efforts to counterbalance rising American protectionism.



    Read more:
    Brics: growth of China-led bloc raises questions about a rapidly shifting world order

    The ripple effects of the US tariff row extend well beyond the directly involved countries, with significant implications for global trade networks. For the UK, already coping with the aftermath of Brexit, this new environment offers both challenges and opportunities.

    With US-led protectionism disrupting traditional trade channels, the UK could seize the opportunity to diversify its export markets by forging stronger ties with the EU and digging deeper into its Commonwealth alliances. It could reinforce its position as a hub for international commerce while continuing to cultivate its relationship with the US. Managing Trump is a delicate balancing act for prime minister Keir Starmer, as both are expected to be in office for four years.

    A word of caution – negotiating international trade agreements is a complex and lengthy process. This is the hard lesson learned by the UK. Its trade with the EU (its most important commercial partner) shrank after Brexit, driving the quest for new trading partners and agreements. But these fruits are slow to materialise.

    The UK formally requested accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in February 2021, but only signed the accession protocol in July 2023.

    And we should not forget that in 2024 the UK halted its trade talks with Canada after two years of negotiations, due to disagreements over the standards on some agricultural products.

    Tariffs come with challenges, but they might also be the beginning of a slow and painful change towards a more balanced and robust global economic order.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump tariffs: there may be silver linings in the trade war storm clouds – https://theconversation.com/trump-tariffs-there-may-be-silver-linings-in-the-trade-war-storm-clouds-249526

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How smarter greenhouses could improve the UK’s food security

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sven Batke, Associate Head of Research and Knowledge Exchange – Reader in Plant Science, Edge Hill University

    A tomato greenhouse in north-west England. Sven Batke, CC BY-NC-ND

    When was the last time you walked into a supermarket and marvelled at the abundance of exotic fruits and vegetables, even in the dead of winter? This luxury, now an expectation, only became common in the mid-20th century, reaching the UK some decades later.

    Not long ago, winter produce in UK supermarkets was limited; root vegetables like carrots, potatoes, and parsnips, alongside hardy greens such as kale and cabbage. Fruits were even scarcer, mostly apples and pears. Today’s variety owes much to advances in global trade and smarter greenhouses, which help extend growing seasons and bring once seasonal produce to shelves all year round.

    Fast forward just one generation, and now supermarket shelves are stocked with dragon fruit, bananas, coconuts, avocados, and a variety of exotic nuts and vegetables. These items not only hail from the farthest reaches of the globe, but have also been bred to offer consumers unique sensory experiences or health benefits, such as higher concentrations of antioxidants. It’s no surprise that most of these exotic foods are often not grown locally or even within Europe.

    According to the latest government figures from 2023, 53% of the vegetables consumed in the UK are imported, and only 17% of fruits are grown locally. The contrast is stark when you look at exports, which remain relatively small (about 100,000 tonnes in 2023).

    UK food security could be improved by growing more produce inside smart greenhouses.
    Sven Batke, CC BY-NC-ND

    How often do you eat a UK-grown strawberry or tomato outside summer? Many such vegetables come from the Netherlands, Morocco and Spain, while most fruit comes from Colombia, Costa Rica and Brazil. No surprise, given their warmer climates. The UK averages 9-12°C annually, compared to Morocco’s 18-20°C.

    Increasing demand for exotic foods available year-round has made the UK’s food system vulnerable to external market fluctuations. Disruptions, such as trade barriers following Brexit or global hikes in energy prices due to the Ukraine war have placed supply chains under strain.

    Empty supermarket shelves could become more common if we see disruptions in supply chains, putting further pressure on the undervalued domestic growing sector. But could the UK grow more of its own food and reduce reliance on volatile global markets?

    Hi-tech solutions

    Protected horticulture (specifically in the food sector, as opposed to ornamental plants) involves growing fruits and vegetables year-round in controlled environments, such as polytunnels, greenhouses and indoor vertical farms.

    These facilities regulate temperature, humidity and light, and in some cases, even atmospheric gases like CO₂. Water and nutrient inputs are also tightly controlled, reducing waste by up to 95% compared to traditional field-grown methods. This allows year-around protection from the elements. They are often overlooked despite holding the key to solving some of the current food security challenges.



    Read more:
    Four myths about vertical farming debunked by an expert

    As part of the Greenhouse Innovation Consortium, my team of biologists, geographers and I recently mapped over 12,000 greenhouses in Britain. Estimates suggest that around 70% of these structures are more than 40 years old.

    So why haven’t we seen more UK-grown fruits and vegetables on supermarket shelves if we have the technology to produce them? One major reason is the high energy demand of indoor growing, especially in cold and cloudy weather – something we are all too familiar with in the UK. For example, 2024 has seen one of the worse years in total recorded sun hours.

    The UK’s horticulture sector has also received very little government support over the years. There are few incentives for growers to adopt new technology or upgrade infrastructure. Many UK growers still have not adopted technologies like automatic harvest robots or AI-controlled systems, and even simple upgrades like LED growing lights could boost yield by over 50%. However, resource management in this sector requires experience and making these changes is a fine balancing act.

    Most British greenhouses are more than 40 years old so investment is needed to upgrade them.
    Sven Batke, CC BY-NC-ND

    But the future can be bright – if we choose to make it so. To grow more produce all year round without compromising on flavour, the sector needs more investment in local expertise and cutting-edge facilities.

    From precision horticulture to advanced AI-controlled greenhouses, with the right drive and investment, the UK could move towards a more sustainable food production system. Sweden for example is currently investing over £700 million into horticulture.

    While achieving 100% self-sufficiency may not be feasible due to other demands on land, such as housing, conservation, and industry, creating a more resilient and less dependent food sector would benefit everyone (not to mention reducing food miles).

    The UK’s food future doesn’t have to rely on global markets. With investment and innovation, the country can build a resilient, sustainable food system. Year-round demand for exotic produce has exposed supply chain fragility, but fostering domestic growth and technology can change the narrative.

    It’s not about turning back the clock, but about making the most of what the UK has while driving forward the solutions that make sense for the country’s future. The answer is not just more local food. It’s smarter, more resilient food systems that can weather whatever challenges lie ahead.

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    Sven Batke works together with industry growers and manufactures in the horticulture industry. The work we are doing is part of the Greenhouse Innovation Consortium, which aims to support local growers in the UK.

    – ref. How smarter greenhouses could improve the UK’s food security – https://theconversation.com/how-smarter-greenhouses-could-improve-the-uks-food-security-248719

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why is there an increase in lung cancer among women who have never smoked?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Pinar Uysal-Onganer, Reader in Molecular Biology, University of Westminster

    Lung cancer cases are increasing in people who have never smoked, especially in women, a new study by the World Health Organization’s cancer agency has found.

    The findings, published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, reveal that lung adenocarcinoma, the most common type of lung cancer among non-smokers, accounts for nearly 60% of lung cancer cases in women compared to 45% in men.

    About 2.5 million new lung cancer cases were diagnosed worldwide in 2022 – an increase of 300,000 since 2020. The study suggests that environmental factors, particularly air pollution, along with genetic predisposition and immune responses, may be driving this rise in non-smoking-related lung cancer.

    One of the most significant risk factors for lung cancer in non-smokers is genetic mutations, especially mutations in the EGFR gene. This gene provides instructions for producing a protein on the surface of cells involved in growth and division.

    Mutations in this gene drive uncontrolled cell division and tumour growth. They are found in 50% of lung adenocarcinomas in non-smoking Asian women and 19% in non-smoking western women – compared with 10–20% in non-smoking men.

    Advances in genetic testing have made it easier to detect these mutations. However, rising exposure to air pollution, which is known to trigger EGFR mutations – may also be contributing to their increasing prevalence.

    Other genetic changes that drive tumour growth include mutations in the genes ALK and ROS1, which are found in about 5% of lung cancer cases in non-smokers. These mutations are more often seen in younger non-smoking women, particularly in Asia. Thankfully, improved screening programmes, especially in east Asian countries, have helped detect these mutations more frequently.

    Mutations in TP53, a crucial tumour-suppressing gene, also appear to be more commonly found in non-smoking women than in men. This gene prevents cells from becoming cancerous, and its mutation leads to out-of-control cell growth. The hormone oestrogen can interact with TP53 mutations, making lung cancer more likely to develop in women over time.

    Another gene that is worth mentioning is KRAS. Mutations in this gene are usually associated with smoking-related lung cancer, however, they are increasingly being found in non-smokers – particularly women.

    Recent studies suggest that exposure to tiny particles in the air, or PM2.5 (so-called because they are 2.5 micrometres or smaller) may be responsible for these mutations in non-smoker women.

    Since PM2.5 levels continue to rise in many towns and cities, exposure to these particles could be another factor not only in lung cancer but also in other types of cancers in women.

    In addition to genetic predisposition, hormone fluctuations may influence tumour growth in women. Oestrogen receptors are found in lung tissue, and experimental studies suggest that oestrogen promotes tumour growth. Studies have shown.) that women who receive hormone-replacement therapy (HRT), have a lower risk of lung cancer compared with women not on HRT, suggesting that natural oestrogen cycles may provide some level of protection.

    Chronic inflammation

    Beyond genetics and hormones, chronic inflammation could also explain why lung cancer is rising among non-smoking women.

    Women are more likely to develop autoimmune diseases than men, and problems with the immune system can play a role in cancer. Persistent inflammation can cause repeated damage to tissues, leading to changes in DNA and promote abnormal cell growth, all of which raise the risk of cancer.

    Women with autoimmune diseases like rheumatoid arthritis and lupus have a higher chance of getting lung cancer, possibly because of long-lasting inflammation in the lungs. Inflammatory molecules – like interleukin-6 and tumour necrosis factor-alpha – can exacerbate the cancer by helping tumour cells survive and spread.

    Autoimmune diseases have been increasing globally, probably because of environmental changes, changes in diet and shifts in gut microbiomes (the constellation of microorganisms that live in our guts and play an important role in our health). Because women are disproportionately affected by autoimmune conditions, they may be more vulnerable to chronic inflammation-driven cancer.

    As life expectancy increases, more women are accumulating years of immune system activation, leading to a higher risk of developing inflammation-related lung cancer. In addition, things like pollution, household chemicals and work-related exposures can make immune system problems worse, increasing the risk of cancer even more.

    Air pollution has long been recognised as a significant factor in lung cancer risk, but emerging evidence suggests that women may be particularly vulnerable. Studies show that women’s lung anatomy and function make them more susceptible to the harmful effects of pollutants. Women’s lungs are smaller than men’s, with narrower airways, which might cause more fine particles, like PM2.5, to get trapped in their lungs.

    Additionally, oestrogen has been shown to amplify inflammatory responses when exposed to pollutants, potentially making lung tissue more prone to damage that can lead to lung cancer.

    Women are more exposed to air pollution than men, but in a different way. While men often face pollution from factory work, women spend more time indoors where toxic fumes from cooking and heating are more common.

    Air pollution in the home, especially from things like wood, coal and kerosene, can raise the risk of lung cancer. Women working in places such as textile factories, beauty salons and hospitals are also more exposed to harmful chemicals that can damage the lungs. In rapidly growing cities, women are often in areas with high traffic and factory pollution.

    More significant

    Women are biologically more likely than men to develop certain genetic mutations that increase the risk of lung cancer. However, factors like rising pollution, changes in hormone levels, immune system imbalances and longer life expectancy are making these risks even more significant.

    Recent research suggests that HPV, a virus, may also contribute to lung cancer in women, underscoring the need for further study and preventative measures.

    Understanding the roles of immune, hormonal, genetic and viral factors is key to spotting lung cancer early, creating more effective treatments and developing better ways to prevent it.

    Pinar Uysal-Onganer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why is there an increase in lung cancer among women who have never smoked? – https://theconversation.com/why-is-there-an-increase-in-lung-cancer-among-women-who-have-never-smoked-249406

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Most animals have their own version of tree rings – here’s how we biologists use them to help species thrive

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anna Sturrock, Senior Lecturer, School of Life Sciences, University of Essex

    Narwhal tusks reveal how they’re affected by declining Arctic ice. Saifullahphtographer

    We have a natural fascination with time – how landscapes have been carved over millennia, how our bodies grow and sag with age, how the stars traverse the sky each night. Scientists probe the layers beneath our feet to understand the secrets of our past. Geologists and palaeontologists sample ice, rock and fossils to reconstruct past climates and species and archaeologists pick through ancient “dustbins” (middens) in excavation sites to reimagine our historical dinner time.

    Similarly, most living things produce records of their own existence in layered body tissues – often in the form of daily or yearly growth bands. The most familiar of these so-called biochronologies are tree rings, which form every year in response to seasonal cycles in temperature and rainfall.

    Dendrochronology – the art of tree-ring counting – allows us to precisely date trees. Based on the rings in its trunk, a bristlecone pine in eastern California known as Methuselah is said to be the world’s oldest living thing at 4,856 years old.

    Methuselah, the world’s oldest living tree.
    Xiaoling Sun

    It’s not just the number of rings, either – their width tells us whether the tree was thriving in a particular year, or suffering due to drought. Chemical compounds locked into the wood offer clues about atmospheric changes, including those produced by volcanic eruptions.

    Tree rings are famously detailed life records.
    Veroja

    Let’s not not stop at trees – your own tooth cement, nails and hair are forming chemical and visual records of your own life experience right now, storing traces of food, drink and drugs you have consumed. They can also produce “stress marks” during trauma or pregnancy, when a mother literally breaks her own body tissues to grow and nourish her baby.

    Elsewhere in the natural world, some of the more surprising examples of biochronologies include whale earwax, narwhal tusks, bird feathers and the bony plates (scutes) on turtle shells.

    Turtle power.
    VLADIMIR VK

    Recent studies, for instance, have applied forensic analyses of whale earwax to explore their stress levels during historic whaling days. Narwhal tusks, meanwhile, have helped explain how declining Arctic sea ice has affected their diet and exposure to pollution.

    The importance of otoliths

    In my lab, we work with aquatic animals – from fish scales and ear bones to squid eyes and beaks. Like decoding a biological black box, we analyse chemical constituents in the growth layers to reconstruct a detailed picture of the individual’s prior health, diet and movements.

    Some biochronologies are more “fickle”, forming layers at unpredictable rates, including the eye lenses of fish and turtle scutes. Others, such as bird feathers, are shorter lived due to periodic moulting. Yet they all share the important feature of serial growth, producing valuable archives that we can probe to build a picture of the animal’s life.

    Probably the best known biochronometer in the animal world – and my own personal obsession – is the fish otolith, or ear bone (Ancient Greek: oto is ear and líthos is stone). We humans have tiny ear stones (otoconia), whose primary function is to maintain balance, but fish otoliths are also crucial for hearing, as well as featuring specific properties that make them particularly valuable markers of biochronology.

    Unlike “normal” bones, fish otoliths are composed of calcium carbonate crystals and are metabolically inert, meaning they never get broken down and rebuilt. Instead they keep growing – even during periods of starvation – producing daily and annual growth bands.

    These beautiful crystalline structures are also highly resistant to degradation and vary in shape between species. This enables scientists to use a combination of “otolith atlases” and artificial intelligence to identify popular choices of fish from otoliths left behind in ancient human middens, as well as in the contemporary stomach contents or poop of predators such as seals, albatrosses and squid.

    Otoliths have driven my research for almost two decades. I’ve been fascinated by animal migration and the ecological and evolutionary processes underpinning these long and dangerous journeys ever since taking a “movement ecology” class at the University of Edinburgh with the brilliant Professor Victoria Braithwaite in 2003.

    I decided I wanted to track marine animals myself, and my lab now primarily uses otolith and eye lens chemistry to reconstruct fish habitat use and growth rates, and the temperatures they experienced through their lives. We are now also investigating how well these same structures track reproductive events, chronic stress and exposure to pollution.

    And we are working with international teams to understand how hypoxia (low oxygen zones or “dead zones”) affect fish growth and reproduction. Ultimately, this data allows us to connect stressful events in a fish’s past to its lifetime health and survival, which is important for predicting a species’ persistence.

    For example, a recent study used otolith-derived metabolic rates of Atlantic bluefin tuna to show their vulnerability to future climate change. Meanwhile in California, we used otolith chemistry to understand the impact of dams on salmon migration and survival, revealing that – on many rivers – dams have made it impossible for salmon to escape into the mountains during summer, which is essential for enabling them to resist the increasingly severe droughts afflicting the region.

    Conservation

    Fisheries managers read the rings on millions of otoliths each year to track individual cohorts and look for warning signs of overfishing, but I would argue that biochronologies are still underused in this field. For example, fisheries managers could use otoliths to track the movements of juveniles too small to be tagged (those under 4cm long), since chemical markers make it possible to identify where they grew up. This would allow these managers to earmark productive or struggling “nursery habitats” for protection or improvement, respectively.

    We consistently find that rivers and estuaries play a critical role in the survival and growth of valuable species such as salmon, sea bass and anchovies. Juvenile fish often have such high natural mortality rates – often only 1% survive to their first birthday – that even small improvements to their survival can result in large boosts in abundance and make wild fisheries more sustainable.

    Small improvements to survival of wild salmon could make a huge difference to their sustainability.
    Jakub Rutkiewicz

    As such, let’s keep up the momentum to clean and restore our rivers and beaches, and to embrace monitoring tools such as biochronologies to learn which actions produce the biggest benefits. Next time you think about banging the glass at an aquarium, just remember that the fish inside are listening – and recording you too.

    Anna Sturrock receives funding from a UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship

    – ref. Most animals have their own version of tree rings – here’s how we biologists use them to help species thrive – https://theconversation.com/most-animals-have-their-own-version-of-tree-rings-heres-how-we-biologists-use-them-to-help-species-thrive-249507

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –