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Category: Global

  • MIL-OSI Global: The EU was built for another age – here’s how it must adapt to survive

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Francesco Grillo, Academic Fellow, Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University

    Shutterstock/gopixa

    To European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, Europe is like a Volkswagen Beetle – an iconic car produced by a once-mighty German manufacturer which has been struggling to adapt to a new world.

    “Europe must shift gears,” she urged in a speech to business executives gathered in Davos, Switzerland at the beginning of the year. Yet, her call to arms failed to raise more than an eyebrow. After all, she has repeated the same call many times since she was elected six years ago. So far, there has been little result.

    The US president, Donald Trump, may now even be tempted to finish off the EU (the most developed of the world’s multilateral organisations) by dividing its members over the single market for trade. This arrangement is the cornerstone upon which the union was built, but can it withstand Trump’s attempts to play European nations off against each other in order to get the best deal for himself?

    The problem is that Trump is simply bringing to its most extreme consequences the weakness of a system that was built for stable times which are long gone. We urgently need a new idea, and it cannot be for a “United States of Europe”. That is a dream from the past that could not be more at odds with Europe’s current political climate.

    Mini unions

    Europe is unable to chart a path forward because it needs unanimity among its member states in order to make any major decision. Votes are not even weighted to reflect the different sizes of each of the club’s members.

    This is a weakness that would gradually cause the deterioration of any international organisation. But in the case of the EU, the crisis is more serious because member states have surrendered part of their decision power. As a result, if the EU cannot move quickly, even member states turn out to be paralysed.

    Viktor Orbán, the prime minister of Hungary, has often been singled out as the bad guy especially – this has happened every time the EU has tried to approve sanctions against Russia or aid to Ukraine. But examples of free riding abound even among the founding parties.

    For decades, France has resisted any attempt to reorganise the common agricultural policy that sends a third of the EU’s budget to farmers, many of them French. Italy has halted the ratification of the reform of the European stability mechanism that should protect states from financial instability, out of the assumption among part of the Italian electorate that this may compromise further sovereignty.

    Elsewhere, Germany’s constitutional court has derailed the reform of the EU electoral law that divides the election of the European parliament into a dysfunctional system of 27 national contests, because of the resistance of the German political system to any electoral law which is not proportional.

    We need to find a way to change all this. And the solution cannot be the rather abstract idea of a union that proceeds at different speeds, where the older members are supposed to be part of an inner circle. Nor is it feasible to expect the abolition of unanimous voting for the simple reason that to forgo unanimity, you need a unanimous vote.

    Instead, the EU should become the coordinator of multiple unions, each formed by the member states themselves around specific policies. A union might form around defence, for example, among member states which are ready for such a partnership, such as Poland, the Baltics and Finland.

    Another might bring together countries that wish to collaborate on large projects such as a pan-European high-speed train, or a fully integrated energy market that may allow Italy, France and Spain to save billions of euros and decarbonise more quickly.

    This is not entirely new. Arrangements like the euro and the free circulation of people (the Schengen area) follow this principle. Only a subset of EU nations are part of these projects, and offers have even been extended to join beyond the EU’s borders. Monaco is in the euro, for example, while Norway is in Schengen, despite neither being an EU member state.

    The problem with these unions is that they are incomplete. The complement to the monetary union is a recently reformed “stability pact” that leaves so many loopholes that 11 out of its 20 members do not comply. And even within Schengen, there are still no proper common borders. The result is continuous reciprocal accusations of exporting each other’s illegal migrants.

    The solution here is to fully share the levers within a certain policy area on terms which are more flexible and voluntary for the union’s members.

    The possibility of calm divorce

    Resilience is achieved through adaptability. Therefore, these new arrangements must make divorce between union members possible from the outset – and establish the terms of such a rupture in advance.

    And in the event of an extreme case, the other parties should also be able to ask one of the members to leave their union (so as to avoid being systematically held to ransom by a free rider). The current union treaty does contain a provision (article 50) that enables a member to leave, as the UK did – but if Brexit showed anything, it was that this mechanism has limited use at preventing a divorce from descending into chaos.

    People should always be part of these decisions, of course. When states decide to surrender some of their sovereignty to a larger organisation such as the EU, it changes the nature of the pact between the citizens of a country and the people who make decisions on their behalf. This evident truth has been ignored for decades as the EU has gradually been built from the top down.

    The European Union currently resembles the marriages we once had in Europe (until well into the 20th century), before it was acknowledged that they are a civil (not necessarily religious) contract that can be dissolved through divorce – not some divine construct that can never be undone.

    The marriage between EU countries is blighted by cheating and empty rhetoric. This is an issue we can no longer avoid if Europe wants to do more than just “shift gears”. The EU was the most successful political project of the 20th century. If it wants to continue to be so in the 21st, it has to learn to be flexible. Only those who can adapt survive.

    Francesco Grillo is Director of the think tank Vision. Vision is convenor of three global conferences on the future of the EU, climate change and AI .

    – ref. The EU was built for another age – here’s how it must adapt to survive – https://theconversation.com/the-eu-was-built-for-another-age-heres-how-it-must-adapt-to-survive-248811

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sickle cell disease is a genetic disorder that causes lifelong suffering – here’s what you need to know

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Cristina Pina, Senior Lecturer in Biomedical Sciences, Brunel University of London

    3D illustration of sickle cell red blood cells Meletios Verras/Shutterstock

    Right now, approximately 20 billion red blood cells are busy travelling through your blood vessels. They are delivering oxygen to all the different tissues in your body and removing carbon dioxide to be breathed out of your lungs.

    Red blood cells are discs curved inwards on both sides, without a cell nucleus. They are full of haemoglobin, a protein responsible for gas exchanges. At the core of a haemoglobin molecule is an iron carrying component called haem, which can be loaded with oxygen.

    The shape of the red blood cell is useful to flexibly navigate blood vessels of all sizes, deforming as needed. It also provides a large surface for gas exchange. Haemoglobin collects oxygen in the lungs, where there is plenty of it, and releases it across the body, where there is much less.

    But not if you suffer from sickle cell disease, which affects nearly eight million people worldwide, most in sub-Saharan Africa.

    In the UK, approximately 17,500 people have sickle cell disease and 300 babies are born with the condition each year. It is a genetic disorder caused by inherited mutations in a person’s DNA that affect the properties of haemoglobin.

    Haemoglobin is made up of four proteins organised around the iron-carrying haem group. These proteins are called globins, and each haemoglobin molecule has two alpha and two beta-globins.

    Sickle cell disease changes adult beta-globin. Instead of two alpha and two healthy beta chains, sickle cell disease patients have two alpha and two mutant beta chains. The resulting haemoglobin is called HbS.

    HbS has different characteristics to normal adult haemoglobin, causing severe symptoms. HbS is structurally unstable. Upon high temperatures, dehydration, acidity, such as happens during infections, it clumps inside the red blood cells. The clumps make red blood cells rigid and change their shape from flexible doughnuts into inflexible sickles – hence the name of the disease.

    Rigid sickle cells cannot travel through narrow blood vessels, which clogs them, forming clots that stop blood circulation in different places. The clots change oxygen and acidity locally, causing more sickling.

    Accumulation of clots causes some of the most severe symptoms of sickle cell disease, including strokes, kidney failure, blindness, prolonged and painful erections (called priapism) and loss of circulation in the lungs – the excruciating acute chest syndrome.

    Repeated clotting scars and destroys the spleen, increasing the risk of recurrent infections, often by streptococcal bacteria which can cause severe pneumonia and sepsis.

    Sickle red blood cells also break easily, a phenomenon called haemolysis. The body tries to produce more red blood cells, but cannot correct the underlying defect. Patients experience symptoms similar to other forms of anaemia, including pallor, breathlessness upon exertion, fatigue. Haemolysis leads to inflammation and damages blood vessels, further aggravating sickling symptoms.

    Lifelong suffering

    Symptoms and complications of sickle cell disease start in the first year of life and progress in severity. The disease reduces the quality and duration of life of patients – in the UK, those with sickle cell disease have a life expectancy of 67.

    Worldwide, life expectancy is below 50 and many children with sickle cell disease in sub-Saharan Africa die before the age of five. Sickle cell disease patients are dependent on transfusions of healthy red blood cells – over time this causes complications of its own.

    Until recently, the only cure for sickle cell disease was stem cell transplantation – also known as bone marrow transplantation – from a healthy donor with a compatible immune system which will not be rejected by, or attack, the patient. Often, this is a sibling or a parent, but, in up to 75% of cases, a compatible relative cannot be found.

    Stem cell transplantation replaces the cells in the blood factory of the patient, which produce HbS, with blood-making cells without the genetic defect, which produce normal adult haemoglobin. Transplanted blood stem cells maintain healthy haemoglobin production for life.

    In the absence of transplantation, sickle cell disease patients receive regular transfusions, which deliver healthy red blood cells. But, unlike stem cells, red blood cells are short-lived.

    Patients also receive a drug called hydroxycarbamide, which is used to treat cancer patients and can be toxic, but alleviates symptoms. Hydroxycarbamide acts by turning on a gene that leads to the production of foetal haemoglobin, which is not affected by the sickle cell disease mutation.

    In 2024, two forms of gene therapy were approved for sickle cell disease treatment by the US Food and Drug Administration. Both involve collecting stem cells from the patient, modifying them genetically, and transplanting them back into the patient so the body makes blood with corrected cells for the rest of the patient’s life.

    The first of the gene therapies, commercially called Casgevy, works by removing and inactivating a gene that is normally responsible for producing beta-globin. This replaces HbS in the red blood cells with the unaffected foetal haemoglobin.



    Read more:
    Nobel Prize for chemistry honors exquisitely precise gene-editing technique, CRISPR – a gene engineer explains how it works

    The second gene therapy, called Lyfgenia (Lovotibeglogene autotemcel), works differently. It introduces an additional gene in the stem cells which makes it less likely for HbS to form aggregates and cause sickling, reducing the more severe symptoms of the disease.

    The development and testing of gene and cell therapies for sickle cell disease is still an ongoing effort of many scientists and companies. That there are now two approved therapies for sickle cell disease highlights the importance of supporting investigation and development of breakthrough technologies based on detailed understanding of biological mechanisms of disease.

    These investigations are key to treating patients with genetic diseases, which often do not have any other available treatments.

    Cristina Pina receives funding from Children’s Cancer and Leukaemia Group via the Little Princess Trust and the National Centre for the Replacement, Reduction and Refinement of Animals in Research. She receives honoraria for consulting services to the Medicines Discover Institute at the University of Cardiff via an MRC research grant to Simon Ward.

    Victor Hernandez-Hernandez receives funding from GOSHCC Charity, Newlife Charity, Welcome Trust, Fight for Sight, EU FP7. He is co-founder, shareholder and employee of Axovia Therapeutics Ltd.

    – ref. Sickle cell disease is a genetic disorder that causes lifelong suffering – here’s what you need to know – https://theconversation.com/sickle-cell-disease-is-a-genetic-disorder-that-causes-lifelong-suffering-heres-what-you-need-to-know-243827

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How the war in Ukraine has made flying worse for the climate

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Viktoriia Ivannikova, Assistant Professor in Aviation Management, Dublin City University

    UladzimirZuyeu/Shutterstock

    Some long-haul flights connecting Europe and Asia are emitting 40% more CO₂ since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, my new study shows. The spike is largely due to airspace closures above conflict zones which are forcing airlines to seek alternative routes, significantly increasing flight times. Longer flights consume more fuel and increase the operating costs for airlines, quite apart from their contribution to climate change.

    The research I led with colleagues highlights how conflicts contribute to climate change in unexpected ways. Understanding this is crucial for tackling aviation’s environmental footprint.

    The war in Ukraine closed the country’s airspace and limited access to the airspace of the Russian Federation and Belarus. This amounts to the biggest closure of airspace since the cold war, spanning 18 million km².

    Airlines that previously flew in Russian or Ukrainian airspace on routes between Europe and Asia, North America and Asia, and North America and the Middle East now take significant detours. For example, Finnair’s flight AY73 from Helsinki to Tokyo now covers an additional 3,131 kilometres, extending flight times by up to 3.5 hours. North American flights to Asia have been rerouted over the Arctic and Central Asia.

    Safety concerns and geopolitical sanctions have forced airlines to carefully navigate around restricted zones.

    The situation is further complicated by restrictions in other conflict regions – including the Middle East, where the airspaces of Syria, Yemen and Iraq are also considered no-fly zones for many airlines. The global aviation map has been redrawn, forcing airlines to adapt quickly to a new and challenging reality.

    Several international flights now skirt war zones.
    Viktoriia Ivannikova

    This has been accompanied by significant costs, both financially and to the climate. We analysed 14 long-haul routes between Europe and Asia that were affected by airspace restrictions and operated by three European airlines: Finnair, LOT Polish and Lufthansa.

    The findings are striking: rerouted flights burn an additional 23 to 28.5 tonnes of fuel per journey, releasing an extra 72 to 90 metric tonnes of CO₂. That’s equivalent to the annual emissions of several cars for a single flight.

    Airlines have also reported significant operating cost increases due to the extra flight hours, including higher fuel consumption, air navigation charges and crew salary increases. Our analysis showed that on certain routes between Europe and Asia, costs have risen by between 19% and 39%, while emissions have increased by between 18% and 40%, depending on the airline.

    On routes from Warsaw to Beijing, Warsaw to Tokyo and Warsaw to Seoul, LOT Polish Airlines has reported an increase of 23% in average aircraft operating costs following flight restrictions. CO₂ emissions on these routes have increased by 24% and ticket prices have also risen.

    Finnair, which historically relied on Russian airspace for efficient Europe-Asia connections, appears to be the most affected carrier. Following flight restrictions, aircraft operating costs on the routes from Helsinki to Shanghai, Helsinki to Tokyo and Helsinki to Seoul have risen by 39%, while average CO₂ emissions on these routes have increased by 40%.

    Our findings shed new light on the massive carbon footprint of war, which is often overlooked in climate policy. Using a forecasting model with specialised software, we found that continued avoidance of the airspaces of Russia and Ukraine could increase all aviation-related CO₂ emissions globally by up to 29% in 2025, compared with 2022.

    Aviation already accounts for 2.5% of global CO₂ emissions, and this figure is expected to grow as air travel expands.

    Aeroplanes seed heat-trapping clouds that amplify their climate impact.
    Peter Gudella/Shutterstock

    Our findings demonstrate that the need to decarbonise transport cannot be separated from broader geopolitical issues. As wars and conflicts reshape airspace availability, they also worsen aviation’s carbon footprint. It’s not just the airline industry that bears these costs – we all do, in the form of rising temperatures and a changing climate.

    What action needs to be taken?

    While the challenges are significant, there are solutions.

    Upgrading airline fleets with more fuel-efficient aircraft, such as the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787, can help to reduce CO₂ emissions by roughly 20%–25% compared with older aircraft models, such as the Boeing 777-200ER or Airbus A330-200.

    Optimising flight paths using advanced air traffic management systems could help too. These systems, allow aircraft to choose the shortest and most efficient paths and can reduce unnecessary detours.

    International agreements to manage airspace collectively during times of conflict can keep essential flight corridors open and ensure airlines avoid inefficient rerouting.

    Airlines are investing in sustainable aviation fuels, which emits less than traditional kerosene – but insufficient supplies, high costs and other challenges make this an expensive and partial solution. With no viable low-carbon alternatives for aircraft, reducing air travel should be the priority.

    As researchers, we see our findings as a call to action. By understanding the environmental consequences of conflict, we can work towards a more sustainable future for aviation and the planet.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Viktoriia Ivannikova does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How the war in Ukraine has made flying worse for the climate – https://theconversation.com/how-the-war-in-ukraine-has-made-flying-worse-for-the-climate-249039

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: AI is transforming the search for new materials that can help create the technologies of the future

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Domenico Vicinanza, Associate Professor of Intelligent Systems and Data Science, Anglia Ruskin University

    Battery technology is one area that can benefit from the development of novel materials. IM Imagery / Shutterstock

    From the bronze age to the Industrial Revolution and beyond, the discovery and development of new materials has been a driving force in human history. These novel materials have helped advance technology and shape civilisations.

    Today, we are at the beginning of a new era, where artificial intelligence (AI) seems to be in the perfect position to transform the search for useful materials. This looks set to completely change the approach to their investigation, creation and testing.

    In ancient times, human civilisations experimented with natural resources to create tools and artifacts. The bronze age, in the mid-4th millennium BC, was a significant milestone. Bronze, an alloy of copper and tin, led to the development of stronger tools and weapons, as well as advancements in agriculture and construction.

    Bronze is often referred to as the first “new material” created by humans. We took different elements and created something new, with better properties that either ingredient and unique qualities. The invention of glass in ancient Mesopotamia around 3,500BC was another groundbreaking moment.

    A superconductor (the dark material) makes a magnetic cube levitate. The field of the magnet induces currents in the superconductor that generate an equal and opposite field, balancing out the gravitational force on the cube.
    Oak Ridge National Laboratory

    Fast forward to the 20th century and the discovery of plastic polymers, ceramics and superconductors opened new frontiers in technology. Ceramics, known for their durability and heat resistance, became a staple in industries from aerospace to electronics.

    Superconductors, materials that can conduct electricity with zero electrical resistance, are already used in maglevs (magnetic levitation trains), particle accelerators and medical devices.

    AI enters the fray

    Searching for new materials that could help drive the development of the next groundbreaking technologies has previously been a long and expensive process. This has been due to the complexity of many materials at the atomic and molecular levels. Traditional methods are essentially based on trial and error and need specialised equipment and resources.

    The inherent uncertainty and risk in material discovery further complicates and lengthens the process. However, advancements in AI, including in a subset of AI called machine learning, are beginning to transform the whole landscape, enabling more efficient and targeted approaches. In machine learning, mathematical rules called algorithms learn from data to improve at tasks without human intervention.

    The main shift is a new methodology based on “generative” AI systems, which can create new content. AI systems can now directly produce novel materials when provided with desired properties and constraints.

    Earlier this month, a team at Microsoft published a paper in Nature that introduced a pair of AI tools for the design of inorganic materials (those not based around the element carbon).

    AI tools can generate thousands of potential materials within a short space of time.
    Yurchanka Siarhei / Shutterstock

    These tools play complementary roles in materials discovery. They are called MatterGen and MatterSim. The first one creates new candidate materials, and the second filters and validates them – to ensure they could be made in the real world.

    The specific desired properties that can be incorporated through MatterGen include a specific symmetry, or mechanical, electronic and magnetic properties.

    Unlike traditional methods that mostly rely on intuition (along with extensive and tedious experimentation), MatterGen can generate thousands of potential materials with specific desired properties in a fraction of the time.

    This AI-led approach accelerates the initial stages of material design. It allows researchers to explore a broader range of possibilities and focus on the most promising candidates.

    MatterSim applies rigorous computer analysis to predict the stability and viability of these proposed materials. This predictive capability helps filter out theoretical possibilities from physically feasible ones. This ensures that only stable materials move forward in the discovery process.

    New tools in the box

    At this point, we might wonder, what does a new material, identified through this process, look like? MatterSim is mostly focusing on crystals, or more appropriately unique crystalline structures with a specific arrangement of atoms.

    These structures are tailored to meet precise property constraints, making them suitable for various applications. These include high energy batteries, flexible electronics, displays, solar panels or advanced medical implants.

    Flexible electronics are another area where materials discovery could drive advances.
    Peter Sobolev

    Microsoft’s powerful duo, however, is not alone in its quest. Google DeepMind’s Graph Networks for Materials Exploration (Gnome) is another tool promising to dramatically speed up the discovery process. Gnome uses a form of AI that’s inspired by the human brain called deep learning. It predicts the stability of new materials, significantly shortening the exploration and discovery phase.

    In a paper published in 2023, researchers from Google DeepMind demonstrated that their AI model could identify 2.2 million new stable materials. Some 736 of these have already been experimentally realised. This is a tenfold increase over previous methods. These materials, many of which were previously unknown to human chemists, have potential applications in clean energy, electronics, and more.

    Even if both Google’s Gnome and Microsoft’s MatterGen are AI-based, they differ in their approaches and, in some ways, provide complementary methodologies. Gnome predicts the stability of new materials by creating variations on existing structures, and it focuses on identifying stable crystalline materials.

    MatterGen, on the other hand, employs a generative AI model to directly engineer novel materials based on specific design requirements. It creates material structures by changing elements, positions and periodic lattices (a repeating structure in three dimensions).

    The implications of AI-driven material discovery are vast. They could potentially lead to innovations in fields such as energy storage and environmental sustainability. One of the most promising applications is, for example, the development of new batteries.

    As the world makes the transition to renewable energy sources, the demand for efficient, long lasting batteries has grown and will continue to do so. AI tools can help researchers design and identify new materials able to support higher energy densities, faster charging times and longer lifespans.

    Beyond energy storage, new materials can be used to design new medical devices, implants and even drug delivery systems. This could improve patient outcomes and advance medical treatments.

    In aerospace, lightweight, durable materials could enhance the performance and safety of aircraft and spacecraft. Meanwhile, new materials for water purification, carbon capture, and waste management could address pressing environmental challenges.

    Domenico Vicinanza does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. AI is transforming the search for new materials that can help create the technologies of the future – https://theconversation.com/ai-is-transforming-the-search-for-new-materials-that-can-help-create-the-technologies-of-the-future-249392

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ōtautahi man says family in Gaza will never leave despite US proposal

    Yasser Abdulaal, who has lived in Ōtautahi Christchurch for five years, said his two sisters had lost their homes in the 15-month-long war.

    “Toxic wasteland” . . . Palestinians take shelter in tents set up amid heavily damaged buildings in Jabalia in the northern Gaza Strip. Image: Al Jazeera screenshot APR

    Abdulaal said they and their husbands — all teachers — could have left at the start of the bombing but refused to abandon their land — and they would not be leaving now.

    “After the ceasefire and with Trump’s statements, they are definitely not going to leave Gaza, regardless of what he says and what [the US] does. It’s their land.”

    He said New Zealand should recognise Palestine as a state and sanction Israel in accordance with international law.

    It should also call for more funding for international aid to Gaza, he added.

    ‘Two-state solution’
    “New Zealand voted for a two-state solution and we have been asking the government to enforce that. Many countries during the genocide already recognise Palestine as a state but our government sees it as ‘not the right time’.

    “I think it is the right time, and New Zealand should recognise Palestine immediately.”

    Abdulaal said he reached a moment during the war where he could not bring himself to call his sisters.

    “I didn’t know what to say, remotely, from New Zealand.

    “It’s a really hard time for everyone, they’ve been in tents for more than eight months, both [my sisters’] houses have gone, they are completely rubble.

    “They are still in tents despite the ceasefire because they have no other place to go to.”

    But he has talked to the pair since the ceasefire began.

    Israeli tanks in area
    “One of my sisters can’t even go and see her house as there is still Israeli tanks in that area [the Philadelphia corridor]. But we know from footage — as she says — the height of my house now is half a metre, it was two levels but now it’s half a metre.

    “It’s mixed emotions. The killing and bloodshed has stopped, but I have lost 55 [relatives] in the airstrikes, most of them women and children.

    “They haven’t even had a proper funeral . . .  it’s really hard, people are just trying to get food for their kids, those basic human rights for people which they don’t have.

    “They are happy with the ceasefire, and we hope it will be a permanent ceasefire, but we have also lost lots of people . . .  [the rest] have lost their houses, their jobs, everything.

    “When I close my eyes and I think about losing 55 people, and that’s just the ones we know about. It’s horrific, I can’t believe it . . .  they’re all relatives: cousins, uncles, extended family.”

    Trump’s proposal was a “dangerous statement and outrageous”, Abdulaal said, likening it to “a reward to Netanyahu and the Israeli government who have been bombing everything in Gaza, killing everyone, committing genocide”.

    “[President Trump] says he wants to drive the people out of Gaza, meaning he wants to ethnically cleanse the people from Gaza, which is another war crime,” said Abdulaal.

    “This is our land and we are rooted to this land and we’ll never leave it.”

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump’s USAID freeze ‘undermines relationships in Pacific’, says editor

    RNZ Pacific

    Marshall Islands Journal editor Giff Johnson says US President Donald Trump’s decision on aid “is an opening for anybody else who wants to fill the gap” in the Pacific.

    Trump froze all USAID for 90 days on his first day in office and is now looking to significantly reduce the size of the multi-billion dollar agency.

    The Pacific is the world’s most aid dependent region, and Terence Wood from the Australian National University Development Policy Centre told RNZ Pacific this move would hit hard.

    “The US is the Pacific’s largest aid donor and what is happening there is completely unprecedented . . .  there’s also a cruel irony that Elon Musk is the world’s wealthiest man and right now he seems to be calling the shots with decisions that are literally going to be life or death for the world’s poorest people . . .  it’s hard to wrap one’s head around,” he said.

    Marshall Islands Journal owner and editor Giff Johnson on the USAID crisis. Video: RNZ Pacific

    Wood was concerned about how the dismantling of USAID would impact the Pacific.

    “It’s not a good time to be in the world’s most aid dependent region . . .  indeed Sāmoa PM Fiame Naomi Mata’afa has already expressed concern about what might happen to funding for organisations like the World Health Organisation . . .  so everyone is watching this with considerable alarm”.

    ‘It’s hard to believe that Trump has changed his sense’
     Editor Johnson said said in an interview with RNZ Pacific last week that Trump’s shutdown of USAID was at odds with the increased engagement in the Pacific.

    He said the move did not line up with the President’s rhetoric on China, and the fact the new US compact agreements were instigated by his administration the last time he was in power.

    “So it’s hard to believe that Trump has changed his sense and I mean, he’s putting tariffs in on China, right? . . .  So that’s still very much in play,” Johnson said.

    “It’s just like amazing to me that that they’re willing to undermine relationships in the Pacific that they claim to be a very important region for them.

    “And you know, this is, I mean, certainly it’s an opening for anybody else who wants to fill the gap, I suppose, until Washington decides what it is doing.”

    USAID shutdown bug thing for Pacific
    Meanwhile, in the Cook Islands, the vice-chairperson of the Pacific energy regulators Alliance said Trump’s shutdown of USAID was a big deal for the region.

    Dean Yarrall said his organisation was planning a multi-day training course on best practices in electricity regulation, funded by the US, which had now been called off.

    He said the cancelling of the training course caught his organisation off guard.

    “We’re seeing a lot of competition between parties, the Chinese are looking to increase the influence Australia as well and the US through USAID are big supporters of the Pacific so seeing USA sort of drop away, I think that will be a big thing,” Yarrall said.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Eugene Doyle: Trump and foolish old men who redraw maps

    COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle

    It generally ends badly.  An old tyrant embarks on an ill-considered project that involves redrawing maps.

    They are heedless to wise counsel and indifferent to indigenous interests or experience.  Before they fail, are killed, deposed or otherwise disposed of, these vicious old men can cause immense harm.

    To see Trump through this lens, let’s look at a group of men who tested their cartographic skills and failed:  King Lear and, of course, Hitler and Napoleon Bonaparte, and latterly, George W Bush and Saddam Hussein.

    I even throw in a Pope.  But let’s start first with Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump himself.

    Benjamin Netanyahu and a map of a ‘New Middle East’ — without Palestine
    In September 2023, a month before the Hamas attack on Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu spoke to an almost-empty UN General Assembly.  Few wanted to share the same air as the man.

    In his speech, he presented a map of a “New Middle East” — one that contained a Greater Israel but no Palestine.

    In a piece in The Jordan Times titled: “Cartography of genocide”, Ramzy Baroud explained why Netanyahu erased Palestine from the map figuratively.  Hamas leaders also understood the message all too well.

    “Generally, there was a consensus in the political bureau: We have to move, we have to take action. If we don’t do it, Palestine will be forgotten — totally deleted from the international map,” Dr Bassem Naim, a leading Hamas official said in the outstanding Al Jazeera documentary October 7.

    Hearing Trump and Netanyahu last week, the Hamas assessment was clear-eyed and prescient.

    Donald Trump
     In defiance of UN resolutions and international law, he recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, recognised the Syrian Golan Heights as part of Israel, and now wants to turn Gaza into a US real estate development, reconquer Panama, turn Canada into the 51st State of the USA, rename the Gulf of Mexico and seize Greenland, if necessary by force.

    And it’s only February.  The US spent blood, treasure and decades building the Rules-Based International Order.  Biden and Trump have left it in tatters.

    Trump is a fitting avatar for the American state: morally corrupt, narcissistic, burning down all the temples to international law, and generally causing chaos as he flames his way into ignominy.

    The past week — where “Bonkers is the New Normal” — reminded me of a famous Onion headline: “FBI Uncovers Al-Qaeda Plot To Just Sit Back And Enjoy Collapse Of United States”.

    The Iranians made a brilliant counter-offer to the US plan to ethnically cleanse Gaza and create a US statelet next to Israel — send the Israelis to Greenland! Unlike the genocidal US and Israeli leadership, the Iranians were kidding.

    Point taken, though.

    King Lear: ‘Meantime we will express our darker purpose. Give me the map there.’

    Lear makes the list because of Shakespeare’s understanding of tyrants and those who oppose them.

    Trump, like Lear, surrounds himself with a college of schemers, deviants and psychopaths. Image: www.solidarity.co.nz

    Kent: My life I never held but as a pawn to wage against thy enemies.

    Lear: Out of my sight!

    Kent and all those who sought to steer the King towards a more prudent course were treated as enemies and traitors. I think of Ambassador Chas Freeman, John Mearsheimer, Colonel Larry Wilkerson, George Beebe and all the other wiser heads who have been pushed to the periphery in much the same way.

    Trump, like Lear, surrounds himself with a college of schemers, deviants and psychopaths.

    Napoleon Bonaparte
     I was fortunate to study “France on the Eve of Revolution” with the great French historian Antoine Casanova.  His fellow Corsican caused a fair bit of mayhem with his intention to redraw the map of Europe.

    British statesman William Pitt the Younger reeled in horror as Napoleon got to work, “Roll up that map; it will not be wanted these 10 years,” he presciently said.

    Bonaparte was an important historical figure who left a mixed and contested legacy.

    Before effective resistance could be organised, he abolished the Holy Roman Empire (good job), created the Confederation of the Rhine, invaded Russia and, albeit sometimes for the better, torched many of the traditional power structures.

    Millions died in his wars.

    We appear to be back to all that: a leader who tears up all rule books.  Trump endorses the US-Israeli right of conquest, sanctions the International Criminal Court (ICC) for trying to hold Israel and the US to the same standard as others, and hands out the highest offices to his family and confidantes.

    Hitler
     “Lebensraum” (Living space) was the Nazi concept that propelled the German war machine to seize new territories, redraw maps.  As they marched, the soldiers often sang “Deutschland über alles” (Germany above all), their ultra-nationalist anthem that expressed a desire to create a Greater Germany — to Make Germany Great Again.

    All sounds a bit similar to this discussion of Trump and Netanyahu, doesn’t it?  Again: whose side should we be on?

    Saddam Hussein and George W Bush
     When it comes to doomed bids to remake the Middle East by launching illegal wars, these are two buttocks of the same bum.  Now we have the Trump-Netanyahu pair.

    Will countries like Australia, New Zealand and the UK really sign up for the current US-Israeli land grab?  Will they all continue to yawn and look away as massive crimes against humanity are committed?   I fear so, and in so doing, they rob their side of all legitimacy.

    Pope Alexander VI
     There is a smack of the Borgias about the Trumps. They share values — libertinism and nepotism, to name two — and both, through cunning rather than aptitude, managed to achieve great power.

    Pope Alexander VI, born Rodrigo Borgia, father to Lucretia and Cesare, was Pope in 1492 when Columbus sailed the ocean blue.

    1494. The Treaty of Tordesillas hands the New World over to the Spanish and Portuguese. Image: www.solidarity.co.nz

    He was responsible for the greatest reworking of the map of the world: the Treaty of Tordesillas which divided the “New World” between the Spanish and Portuguese empires. Millions died; trillions were stolen.

    We still live with the depravities the Europeans and their heritors unleashed upon the world.

    I’m sure the Greenlanders, the Canadians, the Panamanians and whoever else the United States sets their sights on will resist the unwelcome attempt to colour the map of their country in stars & stripes.

    History is littered with blind map re-makers, foolish old men who draw new maps on old lands.

    Like Sykes, Picot, Balfour and others, Trump thinks with a flourish of his pen he can whisk away identity and deep roots. Love of country and long-suffering mean Palestinians will never accept a handful of coins and parcels of land spread across West Asia or Africa as compensation for a stolen homeland.

    They have earned the right to Palestine not least because of the blood-spattered identity that they have carved out of every inch of land through their immense courage and steadfastness. We should stand with them.

    Eugene Doyle is a community organiser and activist in Wellington, New Zealand. He received an Absolutely Positively Wellingtonian award in 2023 for community service. His first demonstration was at the age of 12 against the Vietnam War. This article was first published at his public policy website Solidarity and is republished here with permission.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Cook Islands crisis: Haka with the taniwha or dance with the dragon?

    The Cook Islands finds itself in a precarious dance — one between the promises of foreign investments and the integrity of our own sovereignty. As the country sways between partners China and Aotearoa New Zealand, the Cook Islands News asks: “Do we continue to haka with the Taniwha, our constitutional partner, or do we dance with the dragon?”

    EDITORIAL: By Thomas Tarurongo Wynne, Cook Islands News

    Our relationship with China, forged through over two decades of diplomatic agreements, infrastructure projects and economic cooperation, demands further scrutiny. Do we continue to embrace the dragon with open arms, or do we stand wary?

    And what of the Taniwha, a relationship now bruised by the ego of the few but standing the test of time?

    If our relationship with China were a building, it would be crumbling like the very structures they have built for us. The Cook Islands Police Headquarters (2005) was meant to stand as a testament to our growing diplomatic and financial ties, but its foundations — both literal and metaphorical — have been called into question as its structure deteriorated.

    COOK ISLANDS NEWS

    Then, in 2009, the Cook Islands Courthouse followed, plagued by maintenance issues almost immediately after its completion. Our National Stadium, also built in 2009 for the Pacific Mini Games, was heralded as a great achievement, yet signs of premature wear and tear began surfacing far earlier than expected.

    Still, we continue this dance, entranced by the allure of foreign investment and large-scale projects, even as history and our fellow Pacific partners across the moana warn us of the risks.

    These structures, now symbols of our fragile dependence, stand as a metaphor for our relationship with the dragon: built with promises of strength, only to falter under closer scrutiny. And yet, we keep returning to the dance floor. These projects, rather than standing as enduring monuments to our relationship with China, serve as cautionary tales.

    And then came Te Mato Vai.

    What began as a bold and necessary vision to modernise Rarotonga’s water infrastructure became a slow and painful lesson in accountability. The involvement of China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC) saw the project mired in substandard work, legal disputes and cost overruns.

    By the time McConnell Dowell, a New Zealand firm, was brought in to fix the defects, the damage — financial and reputational — was done.

    Prime Minister Mark Brown, both as Finance Minister and now as leader, has walked an interesting line between criticism and praise.

    In 2017, he voiced concerns about the poor workmanship and assured the nation that the government would seek accountability, stating, “We are deeply concerned about the quality of work delivered by CCECC. Our people deserve better, and we will pursue all avenues to ensure accountability.”

    In 2022, he acknowledged the cost overruns but framed them as necessary lessons in securing a reliable water supply. And yet, most recently, during the December 2024 visit of China’s Executive Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu, he declared Te Mato Vai a “commitment to a stronger, healthier, and more resilient nation. Together, we’ve delivered a project that not only meets the needs of today but safeguards the future of Rarotonga’s water supply.”

    The Cook Islands’ relationship with New Zealand has long been one of deep familial, historical and political ties — a dance with the taniwha, if you will. As a nation with free association status, we have relied on New Zealand for economic support, governance frameworks and our shared citizenship ties.

    And they have relied on our labour and expertise, which adds over a billion dollars to their economy each year. We have well-earned our discussion around citizenship and statehood, but that must come from the ground up, not from the top down.

    China has signed similar agreements across the Pacific, most notably with the Solomon Islands, weaving itself into the region’s economic and political fabric. Yet, while these partnerships promise opportunity, they also raise concerns about sovereignty, dependency and the price of such alignments, as well as the geopolitical and strategic footprint of the dragon.

    But as we reflect on the shortcomings of these partnerships, the question remains: Do we continue to place our trust in foreign powers, or do we reinvest in our own community and governance systems?

    At the end of the day, we must ask ourselves: How do we sign bold agreements on the world stage without consultation, while struggling to resolve fundamental issues at home?

    Healthcare, education, the rise in crime, mental health, disability, poverty — the list goes on and on, while our leaders are wined and dined on state visits around the globe.

    Dance with the dragon, if you so choose, but save the last dance for the voting public in 2026. In 2026, the voters will decide who leads this dance and who gets left behind.

    Republished from the Cook Islands News with permission.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Cloud-based computing: routes toward secure storage and affordable computation

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Robert Deng, Professor of Information Systems – School of Information Systems, Singapore Management University

    Storing data in the cloud is now routine for people and companies alike, but cybersecurity risks still exist, particularly in handling user authentication and access control securely. Researchers are developing novel methods to store data securely and in a computationally affordable way, and to exploit it efficiently–by computing directly on encrypted data.

    Cloud computing, while indispensable for modern business operations, has also become a significant target for cyberattacks due to the large amount of sensitive data stored online. Currently, over 90% of organizations rely on cloud services for critical operations, and there are more than 3.6 billion active cloud users globally. This translates to 47% of the world’s population utilizing cloud services, underscoring the widespread dependency on the cloud.

    Unfortunately, this reliance on cloud computing comes with heightened risks. Data breaches are escalating in both frequency and severity: according to the 2024 Thales Cloud Security Study, 44% of businesses reported experiencing a breach in their cloud environments, with 14% reporting a breach within the past 12 months.

    As organizations migrate more sensitive data to the cloud–nearly half of all cloud-stored data is classified as sensitive–the attack surface for cybercriminals expands. This makes breaches not only more common but also more damaging, as the loss of sensitive information can have far-reaching consequences, including significant financial and reputational harm. The global average cost of a data breach in 2024 was estimated at $4.88 million.

    Nowadays, so-called “client-side encryption” is effective in data security and privacy protection in cloud data storage. However, for encrypted data to be useful, there is still a long way to go toward practical secure computation over it. We still face significant scalability and performance hurdles. Research continues to explore ways to bridge this gap, making scalable, privacy-preserving computation more efficient and accessible for large-scale applications.

    The root causes of data breaches

    User authentication and access control are among the most critical mechanisms to deter data breaches.

    User authentication, the process of verifying the identity of users trying to access cloud resources, is the first line of defence–but it is widely regarded as the weakest link in the chain of security, with an estimated 81% of hacking-related breaches leveraging either stolen or weak passwords. Though user authentication has evolved a lot in recent years, attacks meant to compromise user authentication have, too.

    Access control–the process of regulating who can view, use or interact with cloud resources such as data, applications or services–is the next line of defence. Effective access control ensures that only authorized users or devices have the appropriate permissions to access certain resources, thereby minimizing security risks and preventing unauthorized access or misuse of cloud assets.

    In today’s cloud computing environments, cloud servers are fully responsible to correctly enforce access-control policies. As a result, misconfigurations of servers due to human error or software bugs, or compromise of servers due to malicious attacks, can result in serious breaches. In fact, the US National Security Agency (NSA) considers misconfiguration a leading vulnerability in a cloud environment.

    Client-side encryption for secure storage

    Data can be encrypted and decrypted on end users’ devices before uploading it to and downloading it from the cloud. This approach ensures that data is encrypted during transit and storage, making data inaccessible to anyone without the decryption keys, including service providers and other potential attackers. As long as the decryption keys are kept secure by end users, security and privacy of data can be ensured even if the user’s cloud account and the cloud server are compromised.

    Existing client-side encryption solutions in cloud computing can use either private or public keys. For example, Google Workspace client-side encryption employs an online key distribution server for distribution between authorized users for the purpose of data encryption and sharing. However, an online distribution server can be both a security and performance bottleneck. To circumvent this, MEGA, another client-side encryption service, uses public key encryption and hence does not require an online key distribution server. But it does require sophisticated public key certificate management, as the number of public key encryptions is proportional to the number of potential data users to share a document, making this a strategy that’s hard to scale up.

    Circumventing the computational limitation of client-side encryption

    Suppose that a hospital wants to outsource the storage of its patients’ electronic medical records to the cloud and wants to establish specific policies on who can access the records. Before outsourcing a record, the hospital may specify that it can only be accessed by cardiologists in, say, the University Hospital, or by scientists in the Life Science Institute. Let “CT” denote the encrypted medical record and “AP” = (Cardiologist AND University Hospital) OR (Scientist AND Life Science Institute) be the access policy. CT and AP are cryptographically bound together and are uploaded to the cloud for storage. Then only users whose attributes satisfy AP can decrypt CT to get the decrypted medical record.

    This is a scalable encryption system because its access policy does not need to list each and every authorized user who can access the data, only the attributes of the potential users. Access control (i.e., decryption) of encrypted data is not enforced by the cloud server but through the encryption and decryption algorithms that are theoretically proved secure.

    Beyond secure storage: exploiting secure data efficiently

    One of the main efficiency drawbacks of such systems–which are already deployed–is that decryption is computationally expensive for resource-limited devices. To address this issue, we proposed a protocol that improves decryption efficiency for end users by two orders of magnitude, by outsourcing most of the decryption workload to a public cloud server.

    Another critical problem in deployment is “user revocation”: whenever a user leaves the system, changes her position or loses her existing private key, the key must be revoked to prevent unauthorized access to sensitive data. Current systems mostly use timestamps to bar revoked users from decrypting new content–however, the timestamps require regular updates, which can be computationally heavy in large systems. We proposed hardware-based revocable attribute-based encryption to make revocation cheaper.

    Computing directly on encrypted data

    Ideally, servers should be able to perform meaningful operations on encrypted data without ever decrypting it, preserving privacy at every step.

    This is where so-called “fully homomorphic encryption” comes in. It is a cutting-edge encryption technique that enables mathematical operations–specifically, addition and multiplication–to be executed on encrypted data directly by a server, without the need for decryption.

    However, current state-of-the-art systems are impractical for large-scale computations because of the “noise”–the unwanted, random-looking data introduced by cryptographic operations–that threatens the integrity of the results. Frequent noise-mitigating procedures are required–once again, a computationally expensive method, in particular for large data sets.

    Our novel approach to secure computing over encrypted data allows an unlimited number of arithmetic operations to be performed without the need for “bootstrapping” (the mathematical operation to reduce noise), achieving superior performance across various secure computing tasks, such as privacy-preserving person re-identification.

    Created in 2007 to help accelerate and share scientific knowledge on key societal issues, the Axa Research Fund has supported nearly 700 projects around the world conducted by researchers in 38 countries. To learn more, visit the website of the Axa Research Fund or follow @AXAResearchFund on X.

    Robert Deng has received funding from the Singapore National Research Foundation.

    – ref. Cloud-based computing: routes toward secure storage and affordable computation – https://theconversation.com/cloud-based-computing-routes-toward-secure-storage-and-affordable-computation-248592

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Bolstering Canada’s right to repair could shield it against U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Anthony D Rosborough, Assistant Professor of Law & Computer Science, Dalhousie University

    The right to repair movement aims to give consumers, businesses and independent repair providers access to the resources needed to maintain essential products and technologies. (Shutterstock)

    Canada’s economy has long relied on open trade and cross-border supply chains, but as tariff threats and market protectionism rise from the United States under President Donald Trump, so do Canada’s economic vulnerabilities.

    Although the risk of a trade war between Canada and the U.S. has been given a temporary reprieve, with Trump saying he will hold off on imposing tariffs for at least 30 days, the threat still looms large.

    What happens when crucial imports — farm machinery, medical devices, home appliances — become harder to access or more expensive?

    The current crisis has unveiled deep weaknesses and dependencies in Canada’s economy. In 2023, 77 per cent of Canada’s exports went to the U.S., while nearly half of its imports came from its southern neighbour. For decades, this interdependence was viewed as a diplomatic success, but it’s now clear that this has come with risks and vulnerabilities too.



    Read more:
    Trump’s trade war is forcing Canada to revive a decades-old plan to reduce U.S. dependence

    Political leaders across party lines recognize that Canada needs a plan for bolstering its economic resilience. This will require strengthening domestic manufacturing, expanding trade diversification and building new diplomatic and economic alliances. But this plan must also develop workforce resilience, domestic capacity and innovation right here at home.

    The solution lies in strengthening Canadians’ right to repair the products and devices we rely upon. The right to repair is not just about environmental sustainability, it’s a matter of economic resilience; it can increase the number of well-paying Canadian jobs and reduce Canada’s dependence on unpredictable global markets.

    The right to repair

    The right to repair movement seeks to ensure that consumers, businesses and independent repair providers have access the parts, tools, information and software needed to repair and maintain essential products, devices and technologies.

    That means not only the smartphones in our pockets and the cars we drive to work, but also the machinery that harvests our food and the medical devices that hospitals rely on to save lives.

    Currently, much of this equipment is either imported or relies heavily on imported components. Canada’s agricultural sector, for instance, heavily depends on machinery imports from the U.S. to maintain productivity and food security. This machinery is notoriously difficult to repair as the result of legal and technical restrictions. Canada’s agricultural equipment industry is faced with the same challenges as independent repairers.

    A maintenance engineer checks a CT scanner machine.
    (Shutterstock)

    Similar vulnerabilities exist in the health-care sector. Canada imports 70 per cent of its medical devices, with nearly half coming from the U.S. Much like those servicing (or using) agricultural equipment, biomedical engineers across Canada face a range of technical, legal and market barriers to keep devices online, pushing them into exclusive service contracts to keep devices working.



    Read more:
    A medical ‘right to repair’ can empower consumers — and save lives

    Consumer devices and home appliances are also overwhelmingly imported into Canada, making them susceptible to tariffs and trade barriers — all with the potential to make Canada’s cost-of-living crisis more dire than it already is.

    A path to economic resilience

    The right to repair movement offers a way for Canada to reduce both its economic vulnerabilities and U.S. dependency.

    Extending the lifespan of products is crucial not only for environmental sustainability and reducing waste, but also for strengthening the economy. It can also help communities be more resilient by supporting local businesses, creating jobs and boosting productivity.

    Canada has made significant progress in advancing the right to repair in recent years. Bill C-59 introduced amendments to the Competition Act aimed at cracking down on manufacturers’ refusal to provide independent businesses with the parts, tools and information necessary for repair.

    And, in 2024, Canada amended its Copyright Act to allow repairers to break digital locks used by manufacturers of digital goods to restrict access to repair and diagnostic information.

    But these are only the first steps in a full-fledged right to repair — more needs to be done to support the right to repair in Canada.

    Governments must step up

    Canada’s provinces need to strengthen consumer protection laws to ban planned obsolescence and oblige manufacturers to provide access to essential repair resources.

    Provinces should also prevent manufacturers from voiding warranties on products and devices that are repaired outside of authorized networks. Québec has taken a leading role in this area, but inter-provincial co-ordination will be crucial going forward.

    Extending the lifespan of products is crucial not only for environmental sustainability and reducing waste, but also for strengthening the economy.
    (Shutterstock)

    The federal government’s job also remains unfinished. It needs to regulate repair restrictions in critical technology sectors like agriculture and health care by developing technical standards and minimum repairability requirements for equipment and devices that are purchased through public procurement processes.

    Canada is also in need of federal leadership in enacting a repairability index, which scores products and devices based on their ease of repair. Such an initiative would provide consumers with the information they need to make informed purchasing decisions.

    Advancing the right to repair is a cost-free policy move that will strengthen Canada’s economy in an era of trade uncertainty. Unlike subsidy programs or industry bailouts, right to repair legislation focuses on consumers and independent businesses.

    By enabling workers and businesses to repair rather than replace, Canada can maximize the value of existing goods, reduce dependence on volatile global supply chains and make the country more self-sufficient, all without added government spending.

    Anthony D Rosborough has received Doctoral Award funding from Canada’s Social Sciences & Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) and is a Policy Lead with Dalhousie University’s MacEachen Institute for Public Policy & Governance. Anthony is a Co-Founder of the Canadian Repair Coalition and the Principal Investigator of the Unlocking Healthcare research project (www.unlockinghealthcare.ca).

    – ref. Bolstering Canada’s right to repair could shield it against U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty – https://theconversation.com/bolstering-canadas-right-to-repair-could-shield-it-against-u-s-tariffs-and-trade-uncertainty-248970

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Canada must seize the moment and launch its long-awaited Africa strategy

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By David J Hornsby, Professor of International Affairs and the Vice-Provost and Associate Vice-President (Academic), Carleton University

    Recent events have been nothing short of shock therapy for many Canadians. The threat of economically devastating tariffs by the United States at the behest of President Donald Trump have only reinforced that the time is ripe for Canada to diversify its foreign engagements and collaborations — like with the African region.

    Africa’s geopolitical and economic trajectory is reshaping the global order. With the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) poised to become the world’s largest single market, a youthful population driving innovation and vast renewable energy potential, the continent is no longer a peripheral player — it’s a cornerstone of the 21st-century economy.

    Yet Canada, despite years of consultations and pledges, has delayed the release of a comprehensive Africa trade strategy. The time for hesitation is over.

    AfCFTA window is closing

    The AfCFTA, which spans 54 countries and 1.3 billion people, is projected to boost intra-African trade by 52 per cent by 2035. For Canada, this represents a significant opportunity to diversify exports beyond traditional partners like the U.S. and China.

    Canadian sectors from agri-food to clean tech are well-positioned to meet Africa’s demand for value-added goods and infrastructure.

    Global competitors are already moving: China’s trade with Africa surpassed $200 billion in 2023, while the European Union and India have accelerated trade pact negotiations across the continent.

    Without a formal strategy, Canada risks losing access to a market that could define the next decade of economic growth.

    Geopolitical stakes have never been higher

    Russia and China have deepened their influence across Africa, often at the expense of democratic governance and transparency. Canada’s absence isn’t just an economic miss — it’s a strategic void.

    By aligning with African priorities like Agenda 2063, which emphasizes self-reliance and sustainable development, Canada can counterbalance exploitative partnerships with ones rooted in mutual benefit.

    As Agenda 2063 identifies, African leaders are refocusing their agendas from the struggle against apartheid and political independence to “inclusive social and economic development, continental and regional integration, democratic governance and peace and security.” Africa faces a collective US$100 billion annual infrastructure deficit following centuries of colonial incursion and extraction.

    Recent Canadian investments in peace and security, good governance, people-to-people ties ($54 million) and economic empowerment ($176 million for women and youth empowerment) signal intent, but without a unified strategy, these
    efforts are fragmented.

    Aligning perfectly with Africa’s needs

    Canada’s world-class engineering firms and institutions like the Canada Infrastructure Bank could partner with African states and institutions like the African Development Bank and replicate successes achieved in projects like Ghana’s renewable energy grid.

    Africa’s startup ecosystem thrives in the financial technology and agritech sectors, where Canadian expertise and venture capital could catalyze growth.

    Projects like the Lobito Corridor, offer a chance for Canadian firms to contribute to rail and transport development that could be transformative.

    With significant solar and other renewable energies potential, Africa is critical to the net-zero transition. Canadian mining firms and clean energy innovators are natural partners for lithium and cobalt projects, despite the dubious human and environmental rights track record of some Canadian mining companies in the region.

    A Canada-Africa strategy needs to signal a support for mandatory adherence to environmental and human rights standards for mining firms, such as Canada’s Towards Sustainable Mining framework, while strengthening accountability through mechanisms like independent oversight and legal consequences for violations that already exist. By prioritizing partnerships with African governments and local communities, such a strategy could ensure ethical practices through transparent agreements, community consent protocols, and shared governance models foster a future of more ethical behaviour.

    From aid to equity

    Decades of humanitarian aid have fostered good will, but Africa’s leaders increasingly demand collaboration

    Canada’s Feminist International Assistance Policy emphasizes gender equality and aligns with Africa’s push for women-led development.

    But a true partnership requires reciprocity, like South Africa’s significant investments in Canadian mining and climate research collaborations. The African diaspora community, numbering over 1.2 million in Canada, is a bridge to these opportunities.

    The G7 presidency provides opportunity

    The alignment of the Canadian 2025 G7 presidency with South Africa’s 2025 presidency of the G20 offers a pivotal moment to unveil Canada’s African strategy and to mainstream African priorities, from debt relief to digital inclusion.

    The forthcoming G20 gatherings of finance ministers and central bank governors in Cape Town offers a perfect moment to demonstrate an actual plan to diversify Canadian foreign policy engagements and interests while positioning the country to rally allies behind a renewed set of initiatives that exist across the continent.

    To delay any further will not only frustrate business and diaspora groups alike, but will continue to relegate Canada to a marginal role in the continent’s economic and social development.

    The EU’s public and private investments in the green and digital transitions in Kenya and Ghana’s lithium deal with Australia underscore the urgency for a co-ordinated and concerted approach. Canada’s reputation as a reliable partner hangs in the balance.

    A call for cohesion

    A Canadian Africa strategy is critical now more than ever. To fully engage, any plan will need to articulate pan-African trade and streamlined export opportunities. It should leverage soft power by expanding diplomatic missions across regional economic communities.

    Investing in mutual growth via joint ventures in mining, agri-processing, and digital infrastructure is also crucial. Embedding climate justice by linking critical mineral exports to African renewable energy projects will foster sustainable development — all the while maintaining key imperatives of gender equality, one health and the exchange of knowledge through things like the South Africa-Canada Universities Network.

    Africa’s rise isn’t a distant future — it’s unfolding now. Canada has the tools, the values and the economic imperative to act. Delaying further isn’t just a missed opportunity; it’s a generational misstep.

    The strategy is drafted, the stakeholders are ready. All that’s missing is the political will to hit “publish” and get started.

    David J Hornsby does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Canada must seize the moment and launch its long-awaited Africa strategy – https://theconversation.com/why-canada-must-seize-the-moment-and-launch-its-long-awaited-africa-strategy-249255

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: DEI needs to fix systems, not people

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jeffrey To, Psychology PhD Researcher, Intergroup Relations and Implicit Biases, McGill University

    This week, Google announced it’s halting its DEI hiring initiatives. But DEI training is fleeting and hiring practices need to address systems, not individuals. (Tom Barrett/Unsplash), CC BY

    Google recently became the latest multinational to abandon its diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) hiring mandates. This follows a broader trend among major corporations and a recent executive order by United States President Donald Trump.

    Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, rolled back its DEI policies last November after a five-year racial equity commitment. Other companies like Toyota, Target, Johnson & Johnson, and most recently, McDonald’s, have also halted their DEI initiatives.

    In Canada, however, some companies remain committed to DEI. For example, KPMG Canada conducted 50 DEI training sessions for its 35,000 employees in 2022 and plans to continue its DEI efforts into 2025.

    But is this the best way forward?

    As a PhD student researching implicit bias, I am examining how DEI training and programs can go awry. For example, one study suggests that while DEI programs can reduce prejudice in some cases, programs that exert control over people may backfire. This happens because they place responsibility for bias and discrimination on individuals when research suggests it is the biased systems that deserve more scrutiny.

    Systems — comprising policies, practices and societal norms — are the primary culprits behind biases, which often lead to unfair behaviours toward minority groups.

    Biases are systemic

    We’ve all experienced a moment where we met someone and perhaps without thinking, felt a sense of threat or unfamiliarity. These spontaneous reactions are known as implicit biases. Over the years, researchers have linked these biases to unfair treatment of individuals who differ from us.

    Historically, psychologists have considered bias intrinsic to oneself, similar to personality or IQ. However, newer approaches are challenging this view.

    Personality tests such as the Big Five show reasonable forecasting ability for job outcomes. However, Implicit Association Tests — a common tool used to measure implicit biases — show only weak relevance to actual discriminatory behaviour. In other words, a white person who holds implicit biases against racialized immigrants, for example, might not necessarily act on those biases.

    Recent studies now suggest that biases are better understood as environmental factors, not individual traits. For example, one study demonstrated that implicit biases correlate with behaviour. But this connection only holds when analyzing groups of people within a specific region. In regions where anti-Black biases are more prevalent among white residents, higher rates of police violence against Black individuals are observed.

    This study highlights that biases aren’t about individuals. They are part of broader societal structures and social norms.

    Solutions to systemic bias

    One key takeaway from implicit bias research is that interventions targeting individual biases often provide only temporary results because bias is embedded within systems.

    So, what can organizations do to address systemic bias more effectively?

    Let’s look at hiring as an example.

    Instead of requiring hiring managers to participate in diversity training, organizations could implement hiring criteria that minimize the influence of race and gender bias in the hiring process. Some research suggests tailoring job descriptions to appeal to underrepresented groups. For example, HR postings that increase the transparency of qualifications or focus on benefits can attract more women for roles in traditionally male-dominated fields.

    Policing is another area where systemic change can mitigate bias. Studies show police officers are more likely to stop, question, arrest or use force against Black people than white people.

    Rather than mandating police officers undergo diversity training to educate them about their biases — something that has only a fleeting effect — a restructuring of the policies and procedures around stops and frisks would reduce bias’s impact.

    For instance, policies to ensure the collection of race-based data in police stop and frisks and to encourage stricter accountability among police officers could go a long way to curb racial profiling.

    As DEI programs face increasing scrutiny and skepticism, and many employees feel frustrated by ineffective and repetitive online training, there is a growing need to reframe DEI as systems-focused work. If diversity, equity and inclusion are truly the goals, the solution lies in rebuilding the systems that shape our society.

    Jeffrey To receives funding from The Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. DEI needs to fix systems, not people – https://theconversation.com/dei-needs-to-fix-systems-not-people-247877

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Preventing ‘revenge quitting:’ 5 things workplaces can do to help employees feel like they belong

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Andrea Carter, Adjunct Faculty in Industrial and Organizational Psychology, Adler University

    Creating a genuine sense of belonging can reshape workplace culture, boost engagement and overall business success. (Shutterstock)

    Longstanding workplace issues such as mistreatment, the normalization of toxic behaviour and a lack of accountability for workplace culture have fuelled a growing trend known as revenge quitting.

    This phenomenon, on the rise since the 2000s, sees employees leaving their jobs not just for better opportunities, but as a form of protest and self-preservation against unfair treatment.

    In the past, fear of economic ruin, social stigma and valuing job stability over personal dignity kept many employees from quitting under such circumstances. However, unprecedented inequality and other geopolitical risks are causing an increase in revenge quitting and similar behaviours.

    Companies that want to address this issue have much to gain, but they must go beyond diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) or human resources strategies. Creating a genuine sense of belonging can reshape workplace culture, boost engagement and overall business success.



    Read more:
    Understanding the backlash against corporate DEI — and how to move forward

    Consequences of revenge quitting

    When employees resign as a final act of protest against toxic workplace conditions, the impact on organizations can be significant. One of the most obvious consequences is financial loss. Sudden departures lead to expenses related to recruiting, hiring, training, as well as lost productivity and project disruptions.

    Organizations also lose valuable institutional knowledge and skills when experienced employees quit, hampering innovation, continuity and long-term strategy.

    The abrupt departure of employees also sends a powerful message to remaining staff, potentially leading to decreased morale, trust and engagement.

    Employees who ‘revenge quit’ do so not just for better opportunities, but as a form of protest and self-preservation against unfair treatment.
    (Shutterstock)

    High-profile cases of revenge quitting can also damage an organization’s reputation, affecting customer relationships and investor confidence.

    Finally, revenge quitting can have lasting consequences on workplace culture. If the toxic behaviour that caused the resignation remains unaddressed, remaining employees may become disengaged, leading to a decline in work quality.

    Mitigating the risk of revenge quitting

    My research has found that when employees feel a genuine sense of belonging, they are more engaged and loyal, they produce more innovative and creative solutions, and they are more reliable and productive.

    Moreover, belonging buffers against workplace stressors that lead to toxic behaviours by reducing feelings of isolation, mitigating burnout and encouraging active listening before making decisions. This, in turn, decreases the likelihood of employees making abrupt, retaliatory exits.

    Employees want to work for companies that respect their individuality and value their contributions. High-performing teams thrive when there is clear accountability, fair conflict resolution and a culture of feedback and learning. Addressing toxic behaviours early helps maintain trust and reduces the risk of retaliatory quitting.

    It’s also essential to distinguish between belonging and merely fitting in. True belonging is a reciprocated behaviour between employees and the organization, not solely the employee’s responsibility. Organizations that focus only on forcing employees to “fit in” overlook the systemic changes required to foster true benefits.

    Belonging requires an active commitment to the five core indicators of belonging: comfort, connection, psychological safety and well-being. Each indicator is essential in reducing the desire to disengage or quit out of frustration or retaliation.

    Pillar 1: Comfort

    Workplace comfort is essential for focus, cognitive function and productivity. While physical factors like temperature, noise and ergonomics matter, social comfort is more critical. Social comfort comes from clear expectations, defined workflows and recognizing individual talents within a team.

    Unprecedented inequality and other geopolitical risks are causing an increase in revenge quitting and similar behaviours.
    (Shutterstock)

    When the economy becomes volatile, it can force organizations to deviate from their original strategic plans in an effort to stay afloat. When this happens, comfort is the first thing to erode in a workplace, which allows toxicity to go unchecked.

    For example, when economic shifts force leaders to pivot, employees may have to scrap their work. If leadership lacks alignment in the new strategic actions, expectations will rise while clarity drops, creating stress and conflict. Leaders should reset expectations, restore social comfort and ensure collaboration rather than competition.

    Pillar 2: Connections

    Strong social relationships in the workplace can buffer against stress and enhance resilience. Connection is fostered through mentorship programs, collaboration and informal networking.



    Read more:
    Workplace besties: How to build relationships at work while staying professional

    In remote and hybrid work settings, ensuring employees feel connected to their teams through structured check-ins and virtual social space is critical.

    Connections increase engagement and build emotional attachment, which reduces the risk of employees leaving. Employees who experience meaningful interactions with colleagues and leaders are more engaged and less likely to feel alienated.

    Pillar 3: Contributions

    Employees need to feel that their work is meaningful and valued. Recognition activates the brain’s reward system, which reinforces motivation and increases engagement. When employees feel unappreciated, resentment builds. When this happens repetitively, it can lead employees to disengage from their work, and eventually depart.

    Organizations must implement structured recognition programs that celebrate individual and team achievements, ensuring employees know their work is valued.

    Equally important is offering opportunities for employees to contribute beyond their job descriptions, whether through special projects or mentoring. A workplace that values and acknowledges contributions fosters commitment and decreases the likelihood of employees resigning.

    Pillar 4: Psychological safety

    Ensuring employees’ ideas and concerns are met with curiosity and understanding is crucial for retention. In fear-based workplaces, stress inhibits cognitive function and creativity.

    Leaders must create environments where feedback is welcomed, mistakes are viewed as learning opportunities and employees feel empowered to express their perspectives.



    Read more:
    Fostering psychological safety in the workplace: 4 practical, real-life tips based on science

    Employees feel safe when they work in an environment where feedback is taught and encouraged. They are less likely to disengage or engage in retaliatory behaviours like revenge quitting.

    Strategies such as clear communication channels, anonymous feedback mechanisms and inclusive leadership training help create psychological safety.

    Pillar 5: Well-being

    Employee well-being is tied to cognitive function, emotional regulation and job satisfaction. Employees experiencing chronic stress, burnout or work-life imbalances are more likely to disengage and eventually quit.

    Workplace programs that support mental and physical health are crucial. Offering flexible work arrangements, mental health and stress management resources, normalizing breaks and setting boundaries helps sustain employee energy and commitment.

    More than a checkbox

    Revenge quitting isn’t just a series of isolated incidents, but a reflection of a deeper, systemic disregard for worker dignity.

    The workforce has changed, with employees now prioritizing workplaces where they feel respected, valued and safe. Companies that fail to adapt will continue to lose experienced, talented workers — not because the job market is more competitive, but because employees refuse to tolerate environments that undermine their dignity.

    Leaders need to recognize that creating a culture of belonging isn’t about checking a DEI box — it’s about ensuring employees have every reason to stay and grow within their organizations.

    Andrea Carter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Preventing ‘revenge quitting:’ 5 things workplaces can do to help employees feel like they belong – https://theconversation.com/preventing-revenge-quitting-5-things-workplaces-can-do-to-help-employees-feel-like-they-belong-248411

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Using smart technologies and artificial intelligence in food packaging can reduce food waste

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Tohid Didar, Associate Professor and Canada Research Chair in Nano-biomaterials, Mechanical and Biomedical Engineering, McMaster University

    More than 30 per cent of the world’s food is wasted each year. (Shutterstock)

    Food insecurity is one of humanity’s most pressing challenges, impacting more than two billion people worldwide.

    Paradoxically, as so many suffer from lack of access to food, more than 30 per cent of the world’s food is wasted each year, driven by inefficiencies in production, distribution and consumption.



    Read more:
    About one-third of the food Americans buy is wasted, hurting the climate and consumers’ wallets

    Outdated, imprecise and often incorrect labelling systems — such as printed expiry dates — contribute to these huge problems, leading to the unnecessary disposal of safe, healthy food, increased greenhouse gas emissions and financial losses.

    Addressing these crises requires bold investment in sustainable technologies that are already tested and available. These include smart food-packaging innovations that provide real-time food quality monitoring in every package. This would allow producers, retailers and consumers to receive up-to-date information through the package itself.

    Real-time information

    Unlike traditional expiration-date labels that communicate only time, food packaging innovations use advanced sensors and artificial intelligence to measure spoilage indicators such as pH balance, bacterial growth and biogenic amines. This allows for dynamic and up-to-the-minute tracking of food freshness.

    These systems would increase food safety and prevent food fit for consumption from being thrown out. The early and highly specific warnings they provide would also reduce the need for costly and labour-intensive testing when problems occur.

    Despite the promise of these scientifically proven systems, getting them into the marketplace is a significant challenge.

    Corporations often resist smart packaging due to higher costs and tight profit margins in the highly competitive food sector.

    Applying smart technologies in food packaging design can help consumers make more informed choices.
    (Shutterstock)

    Innovative solutions

    However, the wider economic argument for smart packaging is compelling: food waste contributes to hundreds of billions of dollars in global annual losses, and smart solutions can reduce these losses substantially.

    By quantifying the potential savings — such as reduced spoilage, fewer recalls, less food-related illness and lower legal liabilities — public and private stakeholders can understand why it’s valuable to share the cost of these innovations.

    These technologies also align nicely with growing consumer demand for sustainability and transparency in food systems.

    Reducing food waste through smart food packaging would lower greenhouse gas emissions, conserve agricultural resources and reduce the strain on global supply chains.

    Such innovations can help improve food availability, especially in underserved regions where food insecurity is most acute, fostering healthier and more resilient communities.



    Read more:
    Food prices are not the only obstacle to achieving food security: Root causes include systemic barriers

    Policymakers and industry leaders can create an appetite for change by regarding solutions as investments in people and the planet, not just profits.

    Regulatory bodies must take bold steps, as we have seen in California’s elimination of “sell by” dates, which motivated producers to rethink their labeling strategies.

    Governments can further incentivize smart food-packaging adoption through tax benefits, subsidies, or funding for companies to integrate real-time monitoring technologies. Such measures would make this beneficial change more economically viable for corporations.

    Empowering consumers

    Smart food packaging would also empower consumers to make informed decisions. Innovations such as AI-enabled apps that predict food freshness from smartphone photos can help households reduce waste by determining the safety of food without needing to open the package.

    Smart packaging and apps could take the guesswork out of predicting food freshness.
    (Shutterstock)

    Smart packaging platforms should prioritize universal applications that work across food types, rather than niche, highly customized systems.

    Investing in sustainable innovations to address food insecurity would also deliver broader economic and environmental benefits. Reduced food waste translates to lower greenhouse gas emissions, less strain on agricultural systems and significant savings across supply chains.

    For developing nations disproportionately affected by food insecurity, smart packaging technologies can be transformative, extending shelf life and improving distribution efficiency.

    Collaboration across industry, academia and government is vital to getting these solutions into broad use.

    Profit and societal benefits

    Researchers and innovators must work with corporations to develop proven prototypes into cost-effective, high-performance technologies, while policymakers need to create frameworks to incentivize adoption. Investments must prioritize not just economic returns but also long-term societal benefits.

    As a researcher developing smart food packaging platforms, I have seen firsthand how interdisciplinary partnerships accelerate the translation of bold ideas into practical solutions. I have led research teams that have developed technologies such as Lab-in-a-Package and sprayable bacteriophage microgels. These innovations simultaneously improve food safety and reduce waste.

    Addressing food insecurity demands a holistic, sustainable approach that brings together technological innovation, supportive policies and societal awareness. By investing in smart, scalable solutions, we can transform our food systems to ensure less food is wasted.

    Tohid Didar receives funding from MITACs and NSERC to develop smart food packaging technologies.

    – ref. Using smart technologies and artificial intelligence in food packaging can reduce food waste – https://theconversation.com/using-smart-technologies-and-artificial-intelligence-in-food-packaging-can-reduce-food-waste-248616

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Migrant traders play a key role in South African tourism: it’s time policy makers protected them

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Alicia Fourie, Professor, GIBS, University of Pretoria

    Street traders play an important role in tourism in South Africa. They provide affordable goods to tourists while generating employment for others. Some even source products locally, such as beadwork, traditional masks, woven baskets and various other souvenirs, creating linkages with domestic producers.

    Most of these traders are migrants from outside South Africa.

    South Africa is regarded as the preferred destination for migration in Africa. Migrancy scholars Jonathan Crush and Vincent Williams point to tourism and entry statistics from Statistics South Africa, visa overstay and deportation data, and refugee figures from the United Nations High Commission for Refugees to support the new movements of refugees since the fall of apartheid.

    On arriving in the country, many enter the informal economy to make a living. Often this involves taking up self-employed entrepreneurial activities such as selling goods on street corners.

    South Africa’s tourism hubs present significant trading opportunities. In 2023, the country attracted 8.48 million international tourists. Though still 41.1% below pre-pandemic levels, this was an improvement. Tourism contributed 3.5% to GDP in 2022, when it outperformed industries like agriculture and construction.

    But traders face tough conditions. The sector’s informality means policymakers can easily overlook it. Traders lack formal recognition and have limited access to resources.

    This should change.

    To improve their conditions, several measures could be helpful, including:

    • well-maintained designated trading areas that are equipped with essential amenities like shelter and storage

    • simplifying the process for obtaining the necessary permits and licences to increase their legal protections and operational stability.

    These measures must be the result of discussions with the traders.

    Our view is informed by research we conducted on informal traders over two years (2022 and 2023) in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg. Our focus was on the ability of the traders to adapt during times of crisis and economic downturn.

    We found that the traders showed high levels of resilience and ingenuity to survive under tough conditions. But resilience can’t conquer all. The long-term sustainability of informal trading ventures hinges on external factors. They include government support and functioning institutions such as law and order that can help them manage challenges such as xenophobia.

    The traders

    Our study involved 35 qualitative interviews and 363 completed quantitative questionnaires. Three quarters of the respondents were foreign.

    Traders from east and west Africa were dominant in Cape Town while Zimbabwean traders were dominant in Johannesburg.

    Most informal traders (67%) were the sole income earners for their families, supporting multiple dependants. Before starting their businesses, only 47.5% had formal employment in roles like teaching, cleaning, or sales. Most traders had been operating for over 14 years. Monthly gross incomes averaged US$580, with Johannesburg traders earning more than those in Cape Town and Durban.

    On face value these amounts seem higher than earnings of informally employed wage workers such as day labourers. However, these are gross figures, so comparisons with other occupations or cost of living must be treated with caution.

    Resilience and ingenuity

    The stories the traders shared with us are a testament to resilience and ingenuity. Migrant traders’ adaptability and joint commitment underscore their resilience, a key factor in overcoming economic and social crises.

    Informal trading in the tourism sector drives local economies by providing tourists with authentic cultural experiences through locally crafted products. Traders’ activities create employment opportunities, including jobs for individuals working at the stalls and trolley pushers assisting with setup. Their incomes also support entire families.

    Migrant traders also bring an entrepreneurial spirit to South Africa’s economy. Our research revealed that, unlike some of their South African counterparts who may access social grants, migrant traders often diversify their product offerings quicker and more extensively to adapt to changing market demands. This included introducing clothing alongside crafts or selling locally sourced goods (like items used by traditional healers) during economic downturns.

    Their ability to adapt and innovate, even in difficult circumstances, contributes to the resilience of the broader tourism sector. Migrant traders quickly resumed operations after the pandemic. They used strategies like shared payment devices to improve efficiency, and community networks to weather economic shocks, so that tourism-related goods and services remained available.

    Blind spot for policy makers

    The sector’s informality leaves it overlooked by policymakers.

    During the pandemic, formal businesses received government relief, but informal traders were largely excluded. For migrants, the absence of support was even more pronounced, as they lacked access to social safety nets available to South African citizens.

    By supporting informal traders, particularly migrants, South Africa can enhance the sustainability of its tourism sector. This support could take various forms:

    Policy recognition: Acknowledging the vital role of informal traders in tourism and integrating them into local economic development plans.

    Practical policy responses: Examples include improving visible policing and cleaning up beach precincts, especially in Durban. This would reduce crime, increase tourist visits and improve the lives of street traders.

    Access to resources: Providing grants or loans tailored to informal businesses.

    Skills development: Offering training programmes to strengthen business acumen and innovation.

    Community engagement: Promoting social cohesion to reduce xenophobic attitudes and fostering partnerships between local and migrant traders.

    Next steps

    The stories of South Africa’s informal migrant traders are ones of perseverance and potential. They remind us that resilience is not only an individual trait but a communal effort.

    By recognising and supporting these traders, South Africa would be investing in a more inclusive, robust tourism sector.

    As South Africa seeks to revive its tourism industry through the Tourism Sector Recovery Plan, the contributions of informal traders, local and migrant alike, cannot be overlooked. These entrepreneurs are shaping the fabric of the industry, one craft and one customer at a time. Supporting them is not just an act of kindness; it is a strategic move for the nation’s economic future.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Migrant traders play a key role in South African tourism: it’s time policy makers protected them – https://theconversation.com/migrant-traders-play-a-key-role-in-south-african-tourism-its-time-policy-makers-protected-them-247244

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sam Nujoma personified Namibia’s struggle for freedom

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Henning Melber, Extraordinary Professor, Department of Political Sciences, University of Pretoria

    Sam Nujoma was an outstanding Namibian leader who personified more than anybody else the country’s liberation struggle history and independence. His death at the age of 95 marks the end of an era. But his legacy will live on.

    Together with Andimba Toivo ya Toivo, he was central in the foundation of the national liberation movement, South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo).

    Samuel (Sam) Shafishuna (“lightning”) Daniel Nujoma was born on 12 May 1929 at Etunda near Okahao in northern Namibia in today’s Omusati region, the eldest of 11 children. His childhood was devoted to helping care for his siblings, the family cattle and cultivating the land. From 1937 to 1943 he completed primary school at the Finnish Missionary School at Okahao.

    Namibia was then South West Africa, a former German colony, administered by apartheid South Africa since December 1920. Aged 17, he became a contract worker in the harbour town of Walvis Bay. From 1949 he worked as a cleaner at South African Railways in Windhoek. For most of his age group, contract labour in the settler economy was the only way out of subsistence agriculture.

    Like many of his generation, he became politically active in the organised contract labour movement. His upbringing and struggle for independence is presented in his autobiography Where Others Wavered. It has also been turned into a movie.

    Leading the struggle

    In 1959 Nujoma co-founded the Ovamboland People’s Organisation, marking a new chapter of organised resistance against settler-colonial rule. At the time, African residents in the capital Windhoek lived mainly in the so-called Old Location. It was close to the centre of town, while contract workers were accommodated in a separate compound.

    Their residents were supposed to relocate to a distant new township, Katutura. Protests against the forced removal escalated on 10 December 1959. Police opened fire, killing 11 and seriously wounding 44.

    This was a turning point in the organised resistance. Political activists faced increased repression. Nujoma left for exile in February 1960 to campaign internationally, not least at the United Nations in New York.

    In April 1960 the Ovamboland People’s Organisation became Swapo and Nujoma its first president. He remained in office until 2007. In 1967, Swapo resorted to armed resistance against the South African occupation.

    The organisation became the family and Nujoma its patriarch. As Raymond Suttner, a scholar and political analyst, observed:

    Any involvement in a revolution has an impact on conceptions of the personal.

    A warfare of more than 20 years cost thousands of lives. The military component played a big role in Swapo’s struggle history. This is illustrated in the movement’s official narrative To Be Born A Nation.

    While never trained for combat, Nujoma liked to pose as the military leader. Testimony to this is the dominant statue of the “unknown soldier” at the Heroes Acre, modelled as Nujoma.

    Just as enlightening is Nujoma’s autobiography, ending with independence on 21 March 1990. Its title Where Others Wavered is from one of his statements in the late 1970s:

    When the history of a free and independent Namibia is written one day, Swapo will go down as having stood firm where others have wavered: that it sacrificed for the sacred cause of liberation where others have compromised.

    As the Namibian political scientist André du Pisani has pointed out:

    (Nujoma’s account) brings into sharp relief the career of a formidable political activist who displayed enormous courage, determination and will to survive against considerable odds.

    Heading the state

    Nujoma was appointed Namibia’s first head of state by the Constituent Assembly. His initial term (1990-1995) was characterised by efforts to build the nation and foster reconciliation in a deeply divided settler colonial society.

    He accepted a constitutionally enshrined status quo when it came to the privileges of the white minority. Continued socioeconomic disparities under political majority rule signified a process in which political power was traded and transferred while fundamental social inequalities were guarded by the protection of existing property relations.

    When leaving office, he left a mixed record.

    During his second term (1995-2000), “reconciliation took a back seat, and a certain authoritarian tone emerged”, as the urban geographer and writer Bill Lindeke summarised on the 25th year of independence. This included, among other things, unilaterally dispatching troops in August 1998 to rescue his friend Laurent Desiré Kabila in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Kabila’s government was under attack by rebels backed by Rwanda and Uganda. Nujoma took this decision as Commander in Chief of the army “in the national interest”, with nobody in the Cabinet being consulted or informed.

    In August 1999 Nujoma declared a first state of emergency when a failed secession in what was then called the Caprivi Strip came as a shock attack. The subsequent treatment of the suspected secessionists was anything but reconciliatory. It resulted in the country’s only political refugees so far.

    To allow Nujoma a third term in office (2000-2005), the National Assembly adopted a first constitutional amendment in late 1998. The justification was that his initial appointment was not based on a direct vote by the electorate. The clause was restricted to Nujoma.

    Handing over the torch

    There were doubts if Nujoma would vacate office. In 2004 he declared:

    One cannot ignore the call by the people, because the people are the ones who make the final decision.

    This fuelled speculations that he might be tempted to opt for a referendum, banking on an anticipated majority willing to grant him another term.

    Facing internal Swapo opposition, Nujoma opted for the party’s unity and announced his retirement at the end of his term. This paved the way for three candidates competing for his replacement.

    But, he was adamant that his long-time confidante Hifikepunye Pohamba would become his successor. A heavy-handed approach to bulldoze him through resulted in a break-away new party.

    Nujoma remained Swapo president until late 2007, provoking the question of his ‘presidential indispensability’.

    Pohamba was initially acting in Nujoma’s shadow. After his retirement as the head of state, the National Assembly awarded Nujoma the title “Founding Father of the Namibian Nation”. Ending his party presidency, Swapo named him “Leader of the Namibian Revolution”.

    In such a context retirement is a foreign word. One can leave office but remain a leader. Nujoma’s word and view counted in policy implementation – both at party and national government levels. Although his direct impact gradually subsided, he remained an iconic influencer.

    Achievements despite the limits to liberation

    Many leaders of African countries were shaped by resistance to colonial oppression. This was no romantic picnic, but required perseverance and tough decisions. It came at a cost. Military mindsets and strict hierarchies were fostering authoritarian tendencies.

    These are not the best ingredients for civilian rule. But achieving sovereignty elevated the struggle to new levels. Since the end of white minority rule and South African occupation, Namibian people are governed by those they elected democratically.

    Nujoma was on the commanding heights of Namibia’s liberation struggle for over half a century. He decided to retire as captain in time. Namibians owe it to him and others for paving the way for a democratic state guided by the rule of law.

    This is adequately symbolised in his statue erected at Windhoek’s Independence Museum. Dressed in civilian clothes, Nujoma proudly holds up the Namibian constitution. It might be the best visual recognition of all of his ultimate contribution to Namibian society.

    Since independence, the struggle for more equality continues by civil means. Tatekulu (big man) Sam Nujoma deserves credit for his role in this remarkably peaceful transition towards a multi-party democracy in which politically motivated violence rarely occurs. He will always have centre stage in Namibia’s hall of fame.

    Hamba Kahle (go well), tate Sam.

    Henning Melber is a member of SWAPO since 1974.

    – ref. Sam Nujoma personified Namibia’s struggle for freedom – https://theconversation.com/sam-nujoma-personified-namibias-struggle-for-freedom-158904

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NZ must take robust Gaza stance – ‘stop tip-toeing’ around Trump, warns academic

    By Rachel Helyer Donaldson, RNZ News journalist

    New Zealand should be robust in its response to the “unacceptable” situation in Gaza but it must also back its allies against threats by the US President, says an international relations academic.

    Otago University professor of international relations Robert Patman said the rest of the world also “should stop tip-toeing” around President Donald Trump and must stand up to any threats he makes against allies, no matter how outlandish they seem.

    Trump doubled down on his proposal for a US takeover of Gaza on Friday, after the idea was rejected by Palestinians and leaders around the world.

    Foreign Minister Winston Peters told RNZ that New Zealand would not comment on the plan until it was clear exactly what was meant, but said New Zealand continued to support a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine.

    Dr Patman said the president’s plan was “truly shocking and absolutely appalling” in light of the devastation in Gaza in the last 15 months.

    It was not only “tone deaf” but also dangerous, he added, with the proposal amounting to “the most powerful country in the world — the US — dismantling an international rules=based system that [it] has done so much to establish”.

    “This was an extraordinary proposal which I think is reckless and dangerous because it certainly doesn’t help the immediate situation. It probably plays into the hands of extremists in the region.

    “There is a view at the moment that we must all tiptoe round Mr Trump in order not to upset him, while he’s completely free to make outrageous suggestions which endanger people’s lives.”

    Professor Robert Patman . . . Trump’s plan for Gaza “truly shocking and absolutely appalling”. Image: RNZ

    Winston Peters’ careful position on a potential US takeover of Gaza was “a fair response . . . but the Luxon-led government must be clear the current situation is unacceptable” and oppose protectionism, he said.

    “[The government ] wants a solution in the Middle East which recognises both the Israeli desire for security but also recognises the political right to self determination of the Palestinian people — in other words the right to have a state of their own.”

    New Zealand should also speak out against Trump’s threats to annex Canada, “our very close ally”, he said.

    He was “not suggesting New Zealand be provocative but it must be robust”, Dr Patman said.

    Greens also respond to Trump actions
     The Green Party said President Trump had been explicit in his intention to take over Gaza, and New Zealand needed to make its position crystal clear too.

    Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said the Prime Minister needed to stand up and condemn the plan as “reprehensible”.

    “President Trump’s comments have been pretty clear to anybody who is able to read or to listen to them, about his intention to forcibly displace, or to see displaced, about 1.8 million Gazans from their own land, who have already been made refugees in their own land.”

    France, Spain, Ireland, Brazil and other countries had been “unequivocal” in their condemnation of Trump’s plan, and NZ’s Foreign Affairs Minister should be too, she added.

    “New Zealanders value justice and they value peace, and they want to see our leadership represent that, on the international stage. So [these were] really disappointing and unfortunately unclear comments from our Deputy Prime Minister.”

    Yesterday Foreign Minister Winston Peters told RNZ that New Zealand still supported a two-state solution, but said he would not comment on Trump’s Gaza plan until officials could grasp exactly what this meant.

    Trump sanctions International Criminal Court
     Meanwhile, an international law expert says New Zealand’s cautious position following Trump’s sanctions on International Criminal Court (ICC) staff is the right response — for now.

    Dozens of countries have expressed “unwavering support” for the ICC in a joint statement, after the US President imposed sanctions on its staff.

    The 125-member ICC is a permanent court that can prosecute individuals for war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and the crime of aggression against the territory of member states or by their nationals.

    The United States, China, Russia and Israel are not members.

    Trump has accused the court of improperly targeting the US and its ally, Israel.

    Neither New Zealand nor Australia had joined the statement, but in a statement to RNZ the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it had always supported the ICC’s role in upholding international law and a rules-based system.

    University of Victoria law professor Alberto Costi said currently New Zealand is at little risk of sanctions and there’s no need for a stronger approach.

    “At this stage there is no reason to be stronger. New Zealand is perceived as a state that believes in a rules-based order and is supportive of the work of the ICC.

    “So there’s not much need to go further but it’s a space to watch in the future, should these sanctions become a reality.

    “But as far as New Zealand is concerned, at the moment there is no need to antagonise anyone at this stage.”

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: PSNA’s Minto hits back at Gaza ‘genocide hotline’ critics, insists NZ should deny Israeli soldiers entry

    Asia Pacific Report

    A national Palestine advocacy group has hit back at critics of its “genocide hotline” campaign against soldiers involved in Israel’s war against Gaza, saying New Zealand should be actively following international law.

    The Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA) dismissed a “predictable lineup of apologists for Israel” for their criticisms of the PSNA campaign.

    “Why is concern for the sensitivities of soldiers from a genocidal Israeli campaign more important than condemning the genocide itself?,” asked PSNA national chair John Minto in a statement.

    The Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters, the Chief Human Rights Commissioner Stephen Rainbow and the New Zealand Jewish Council have made statements “protecting” Israeli soldiers who come to New Zealand on “rest and recreation” from the industrial-scale killing of 47,000 Palestinians in Gaza until a truce went into force on January 19.

    “We are not surprised to see such a predictable lineup of apologists for Israel and its genocide in Gaza from lining up to attack a PSNA campaign with false smears of anti-semitism,” Minto said.

    He said that over 16 months Peters had done “absolutely nothing” to put any pressure on Israel to end its genocidal behaviour.

    “But he is full of bluff and bluster and outright lies to denounce those who demand Israel be held to account.”

    Deny illegal settler visas
    Minto said that if Peters was doing his job as Foreign Minister, he would not only stop Israeli soldiers coming to Aotearoa New Zealand — as with Russian soldiers in the Ukraine war — he would also deny visas to any Israeli with an address in an illegal Israeli settlement in the Occupied Palestinian Territories.

    The Human Rights Commission had issued a “disingenuous media release”, he said.

    Whlle the commission said it had received 90 complaints about the hotline, it had also received eight complaints about immigration policy allowing Israeli soldiers to enter New Zealand under the visa waiver scheme that applies to Israel.

    “Our campaign has nothing to do with Israelis or Jews — it is a campaign to stop Israeli soldiers coming here for rest and recreation after a campaign of wholesale killing of Palestinians in Gaza,” Minto said.

    “To imply the campaign is targeting Jews is disgusting and despicable.

    “Some of the soldiers will be Druse, some Palestinian Arabs and others will be Jews.”

    The five-year-old Palestinian girl Hind Rajab, shot 355 times by Israeli soldiers on 29 January 2024. Image: @Onlyloren/Instagram

    Israeli soldiers are facing a growing risk of being arrested abroad for alleged war crimes committed in Gaza, with around 50 criminal complaints filed so far in courts in several countries around the world.

    Earlier this month, a former Israeli soldier abruptly ended his holiday in Brazil and was “smuggled” out of the country after a Federal Court ordered police to open a war crimes investigation against him. The man fled to Argentina.

    A complaint lodged by the Belgium-based Hind Rajab Foundation (HRF) included more than 500 pages of court records linking the suspect to the demolition of civilian homes in Gaza.

    ‘Historic’ court ruling against soldier
    The foundation called the Brazilian court’s decision “historic”, saying it marked a significant precedent for a member country of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to enforce Rome Statute provisions domestically in the 15-month Israeli war on Gaza.

    The foundation is named in honour of five-year-old Palestinian girl Hind Rajab who was killed on 29 January 2024 by Israel soldiers while pleading for help in a car after her six family members were dead.

    According to The New Arab, the foundation has so far tracked and sent the names of 1000 Israeli soldiers to the ICC and Interpol, and has been pursuing legal cases in a number of countries, including Belgium, Brazil, Cyprus, France, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Thailand, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.

    In November, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, together with a former Hamas commander, citing allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

    Minto accused the New Zealand Jewish Council of being “deeply racist” and said it regularly “makes a meal of false smears of anti-semitism”.

    “It’s deeply problematic that this Jewish Council strategy takes attention away from the real anti-semitism which exists in New Zealand and around the world.

    “The priority of the Jewish Council is to protect Israel from criticism and protect it from accountability for its apartheid policies, ethnic cleansing and genocide.

    “We are demanding that accountability.”

    NZ ‘going through the motions’
    In a later statement, PSNA said the government had begun to “go through the motions” of questioning Israeli soldiers at the border but it was just a “look busy policy – too little too late”.

    NZ requires Israelis to disclose IDF service details as condition for entry – a similar policy to Australia. Image: Times of Israel screenshot APR

    Immigration questioning Israeli of soldiers about their military service in Gaza at the New Zealand border was revealed in a Times of Israel report today which said:

    “New Zealand’s government immigration authority has begun to require Israelis applying for a visa to report details of their military service as a condition for entry, and at least one person has been denied admission after doing so.”

    PSNA’s Minto said the government must also uphold the ICJ advisory opinion of 19 July 2024 which called on global governments to end support for Israel’s illegal occupation.

    “This means we should also deny entry to every Israeli wanting to visit here who has an address in an illegal Israeli settlement in the Occupied Palestinian Territories,” Minto added.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Mediawatch: NZ media in the middle of Asia-Pacific diplomatic drama

    MEDIAWATCH: By Colin Peacock, RNZ Mediawatch presenter

    By the time US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on China and Canada last Monday which could kickstart a trade war, New Zealand’s diplomats in Washington, DC, had already been deployed on another diplomatic drama.

    Republican Senator Ted Cruz had said on social media it was “difficult to treat New Zealand as a normal ally . . .  when they denigrate and punish Israeli citizens for defending themselves and their country”.

    He cited a story in the Israeli media outlet Ha’aretz, which has a reputation for independence in Israel and credibility abroad.

    But Ha’aretz had wrongly reported Israelis must declare service in the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) as part of “new requirements” for visa applications.

    Winston Peters replied forcefully to Cruz on X, condemning Ha’aretz’s story as “fake news” and demanding a correction.

    Winston Peters puts Ted Cruz on notice over the misleading Ha’aretz story. Image: X/RNZ

    But one thing Trump’s Republicans and Winston Peters had in common last week was irritating Mexico.

    His fellow NZ First MP Shane Jones had bellowed “Send the Mexicans home” at Green MPs in Parliament.

    Winston Peters then told two of them they should be more grateful for being able to live in New Zealand.

    ‘We will not be lectured’
    On Facebook he wasn’t exactly backing down.

    “We . . .  will not be lectured on the culture and traditions of New Zealand from people who have been here for five minutes,” he added.

    While he was at it, Peters criticised media outlets for not holding other political parties to account for inflammatory comments.

    Peters was posting that as a politician — not a foreign minister, but the Mexican ambassador complained to MFAT. (It seems the so-called “Mexican standoff” was resolved over a pre-Waitangi lunch with Ambassador Bravo).

    But the next day — last Wednesday — news of another diplomatic drama broke on TVNZ’s 1News.

    “A deal that could shatter New Zealand’s close relationship with a Pacific neighbour,” presenter Simon Dallow declared, in front of a backdrop of a stern-looking Peters.

    TVNZ’s Pacific correspondent Barbara Dreaver reported the Cook Islands was about to sign a partnership agreement in Beijing.

    “We want clarity and at this point in time, we have none. We’ve got past arrangements, constitutional arrangements, which require constant consultation with us, and dare I say, China knows that,” Peters told 1News.

    Passports another headache
    Cook Islands’ Prime Minister Mark Brown also told Barbara Dreaver TVNZ’s revelations last month about proposed Cook Island passports had also been a headache for him.

    “We were caught by surprise when this news was broken by 1News. I thought it was a high-level diplomatic discussion with leaders to be open and frank,” he told TVNZ this week.

    “For it to be brought out into the public before we’ve had a time to inform our public, I thought was a breach of our political diplomacy.”

    Last week another Barabara Dreaver scoop on 1News brought the strained relationship with another Pacific state into the headlines:

    “Our relationship with Kiribati is at breaking point. New Zealand’s $100 million aid programme there is now on hold. The move comes after President [Taneti] Maamau pulled out of a pre-arranged meeting with Winston Peters.”

    The media ended up in the middle of the blame game over this too — but many didn’t see it coming.

    Caught in the crossfire
     “A diplomatic rift with Kiribati was on no one’s 2025 bingo card,” Stuff national affairs editor Andrea Vance wrote last weekend in the Sunday Star-Times.

    “Of all the squabbles Winston Peters was expected to have this year, no one picked it would be with an impoverished, sinking island nation,” she wrote, in terms that would surely annoy Kiribati.

    “Do you believe Kiribati is snubbing you?” RNZ Morning Report’s Corin Dann asked Peters.

    “You can come to any conclusion you like, but our job is to try and resolve this matter,” Peters replied.

    Kiribati Education Minister Alexander Teabo told RNZ Pacific there was no snub.

    He said Kiribati President Maamau — who is also the nation’s foreign minister — had been unavailable because of a long-planned and important Catholic ordination ceremony on his home island of Onotoa — though this was prior to the proposed visit from Peters.

    On Facebook — at some length — New Zealand-born Kiribati MP Ruth Cross Kwansing blamed “media manufactured drama”.

    “The New Zealand media seized the opportunity to patronise Kiribati, and the familiar whispers about Chinese influence began to circulate,” she said.

    She was more diplomatic on the 531pi Pacific Mornings radio show but insistent New Zealand had not been snubbed.

    Public dispute “regrettable’
    Peters told the same show it was “regrettable” that the dispute had been made public.

    On Newstalk ZB Peters was backed — and Kiribati portrayed as the problem.

    “If somebody is giving me $100m and they asked for a meeting, I will attend. I don’t care if it’s my mum’s birthday. Or somebody’s funeral,” Drive host Ryan Bridge told listeners.

    “It’s always very hard to pick apart these stories (by) just reading them in the media. But I have faith and confidence in Winston Peters as our foreign minister,” PR-pro Trish Shrerson opined.

    So did her fellow panellist, former Labour MP Stuart Nash.

    “He’s respected across the Pacific. He’s the consummate diplomat. If Winston says this is the story and this is what’s happening, I believe 100 percent. And I would say, go hard. Winston — represent our interests.”

    ‘Totally silly’ response
    But veteran Pacific journalist Michael Field contradicted them soon after on ZB.

    “It’s totally silly. All this talk about cancelling $104 million of aid is total pie-in-the-sky from Winston Peters,” he said.

    “Somebody’s lost their marbles on this, and the one who’s possibly on the ground looking for them is Winston Peters.

    “He didn’t need to be in Tarawa in early January at all. This is pathetic. This is like saying I was invited to my sister’s birthday party and now it’s been cancelled,” he said.

    Not a comparison you hear very often in international relations.

    In his own Substack newsletter Michael Field also insisted the row reflected poorly on New Zealand.

    “While the conspiracy around Kiribati and China has deepened, no one is noticing the still-viable Kiribati-United States treaty which prevents Kiribati atolls [from] being used as bases without Washington approval,” he added.

    Kiribati ‘hugely disrespectful’
    But TVNZ’s Barbara Dreaver said Kiribati was being “hugely disrespectful”.

    In a TVNZ analysis piece last weekend, she said New Zealand has “every right to expect better engagement than it has been getting over the past year.”

    Dreaver — who was born in and grew up in Kiribati and has family there — also criticised “the airtime and validation” Kwansing got in the media in New Zealand.

    “She supports and is part of a government that requires all journalists — should they get a visa to go there — to hand over copies of all footage/information collected,” Dreaver said.

    Kwansing hit back on Facebook, accusing Dreaver of “publishing inane drivel” and “irresponsible journalism causing stress to locals.”

    “You write like you need a good holiday somewhere happy. Please book yourself a luxury day spa ASAP,” she told TVNZ’s Pacific Affairs reporter.

    Two days later — last Tuesday — the Kiribati government made percent2CO percent2CP-R an official statement which also pointed the finger at the media.

    “Despite this media issue, the government of Kiribati remains convinced the strong bonds between Kiribati and New Zealand will enable a resolution to this unfortunate standoff,” it said.

    Copping the blame
    Another reporter who knows what it’s like to cop the blame for reporting stuff diplomats and politicians want to keep out of the news is RNZ Pacific’s senior journalist and presenter Lydia Lewis.

    Last year, Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese questioned RNZ’s ethics after she reported comments he made to the US Deputy Secretary of State at the Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga — which revealed an until-then behind closed doors plan to pay for better policing in the Pacific.

    She’s also been covering the tension with Kiribati.

    Is the heat coming on the media more these days if they candidly report diplomatic differences?

    TVNZ Pacific senior journalist and presenter Lydia Lewis . . . “both the public and politicians are saying the media [are] making a big deal of things.” Image: RNZ Pacific

    “There’s no study that says there are more people blaming the media. So it’s anecdotal, but definitely, both the public and politicians are saying the media (are) making a big deal of things,” Lewis told Mediawatch.

    “I would put the question back to the public as to who’s manufacturing drama. All we’re doing is reporting what’s in front of us for the public to then make their decision — and questioning it. And there were a lot of questions around this Kiribati story.”

    Lewis said it was shortly before 6pm on January 27, that selected journalists were advised of the response of our government to the cancellation of the meeting with foreign minister Peters.

    Vice-President an alternative
    But it was not mentioned that Kiribati had offered the Vice-President for a meeting, the same person that met with an Australian delegation recently.

    A response from Kiribati proved harder to get — and Lewis spoke to a senior figure in Kiribati that night who told her they knew nothing about it.

    Politicians and diplomats, naturally enough, prefer to do things behind the scenes and media exposure is a complication for them.

    But we simply wouldn’t know about the impending partnership agreement between China and the Cook Islands if TVNZ had not reported it last Monday.

    And another irony: some political figures lamenting the diplomatically disruptive impact of the media also make decidedly undiplomatic responses of their own online these days.

    “It can be revealing in the sense of where people stand. Sometimes they’re just putting out their opinions or their experience. Maybe they’ve got some sort of motive. A formal message or email we’ll take a bit more seriously. But some of the things on social media, we just take with a grain of salt,” said Lewis.

    “It is vital we all look at multiple sources. It comes back to balance and knowledge and understanding what you know about and what you don’t know about — and then asking the questions in between.”

    Big Powers and the Big Picture
     Kwansing objected to New Zealand media jumping to the conclusion China’s influence was a factor in the friction with New Zealand.

    “To dismiss the geopolitical implications with China . . .  would be naive and ignorant,” Dreaver countered.

    Michael Field pointed to an angle missing.

    “While the conspiracy around Kiribati and China has deepened, no one is noticing the still viable Kiribati-United States treaty which prevents Kiribati atolls being used as bases without Washington approval,” he wrote in his Substack.

    In the same article in which Vance called Kiribati “an impoverished, sinking island nation” she later pointed out that its location, US military ties and vast ocean territory make it strategically important.

    Questions about ‘transparency and accountability’
    “There’s a lot of people that want in on Kiribati. It has a huge exclusive economic zone,” Lewis said.

    She said communication problems and patchy connectivity are also drawbacks.

    “We do have a fuller picture now of the situation, but the overarching question that’s come out of this is around transparency and accountability.

    “We can’t hold Kiribati politicians to account like we do New Zealand government politicians.”

    “I don’t want to give Kiribati a free pass here but it’s really difficult to get a response.

    “They’re posting statements on Facebook and it really has raised some questions around the government’s commitment to transparency and accountability for all journalists . . .  committed to fair media reporting across the Pacific.”

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US sovereign wealth fund: A feasible idea to invest strategically, or a giant opportunity for waste?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Patrick J. Schena, Professor of Practice and International Business, Tufts University

    U.S. President Donald Trump signs an executive order to create a U.S. sovereign wealth fund on Feb. 3, 2025 Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

    Could the United States soon be joining the likes of Norway, Kuwait and Mongolia in having a national reserve to invest on projects of strategic interest? If President Donald Trump gets his way, then perhaps so.

    On Feb. 3, 2025, Trump issued an executive order calling for the creation of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund.

    This was not entirely unexpected. After all, the idea had been floated in September 2024 not only by the Trump team, but also by President Joe Biden’s Treasury Department.

    Many at the time, including myself, deemed it far-fetched at best. But with the initiative now gaining traction, the time is certainly ripe to imagine what a U.S. sovereign wealth fund might look like.

    What is a sovereign wealth fund?

    In their most basic form, sovereign wealth funds are pools of government savings, usually accumulated over many years through the sale of commodities, traded goods, government-owned companies and land-use rights, among other sources.

    They share a variety of objectives, such as stabilizing government finances, ensuring the funding of retirement or education programs, saving for future generations or even managing state-owned corporations.

    They generally diversify investment across assets, geographies and sectors, including some, such as sports and entertainment in the case of Saudi Arabia, that are aligned with national development goals.

    Sovereign wealth funds are usually associated with great wealth – Norway’s “oil fund” is estimated to be worth US$1.7 trillion. With regard to scale, Norway is hardly alone. And Norway’s fund is typical in another respect: sovereign wealth funds are often based in smaller countries with outsized natural resources, like Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, or even tiny Guyana in the Caribbean.

    In reality, most sovereign wealth funds are more modest in size relative to their gross domestic products.

    How long have SWFs been around?

    Sovereign wealth funds are hardly new. The so-called modern era of sovereign wealth funds dates to the early 1950s with the creation of the Kuwait Investment Board.

    But some government investment funds, such as the Texas Permanent School Fund, established in 1854, long predate the Kuwait Investment Board.

    As is evident in the case of Texas, there are many such funds already operating in the U.S., including those in Alaska, New Mexico and Wyoming – all of which identify as “sovereign wealth funds.” These, of course, are state funds, but the term “sovereign” is generously applied.

    Sovereign wealth funds often invest outside of their geographies, not only to diversify returns but to avoid stimulating higher inflation that may result from investing at home.

    In fact, the U.S. has benefited from investments by other countries’ sovereign wealth funds. Developed market economies like the U.S. are attractive destinations for investment, given the relative strength of their institutions and the scale and liquidity of their financial markets.

    Still, over the last decade there has been a rapid expansion in the number of sovereign wealth funds investing domestically, particularly in support of strategic national goals. Some of these include funds in Ireland, India and Indonesia.

    Their investment programs target critical sectors and national “champions,” with a goal to mobilize foreign capital for co-investment in local markets.

    Soccer superstar Cristiano Ronaldo plays for Al-Nassr, in which Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has a controlling stake.
    Abdullah Ahmed/Getty Images

    The fundamental questions of a fund

    What could a U.S. sovereign wealth fund look like? Would it be well funded? And if so, how? Through taxes, treasury bond proceeds, budget transfers, tariffs?

    Would it invest globally or domestically? Could it be used to reinforce the Social Security system? Will it be used to tackle the dual deficits of budget and trade? Or will it have a strategic mandate – to enhance national security, energy security or climate security?

    These are all fundamental questions that must be carefully examined; creating a sovereign wealth fund should not be a backroom exercise. It needs to be conducted openly, with expert input and public deliberation.

    The process belies even more challenging organizational and governance decisions concerning the legal structure, ownership and management of the fund, the independence of its governing board, and its distance from government influence in its decisions.

    After all, the history of sovereign wealth funds is not without failed attempts. Take Malaysia’s 1MDB, which was usurped for political and personal gain and became a multibillion-dollar corruption scandal, or Venezuela’s macrostabilization and development funds, which were both effectively exhausted.

    In these cases – and others – the breakdown can be connected to failures in governance, both in design and culture, and ultimately traced back to politics.

    Where does the US start?

    It is interesting to note that it was George W. Bush’s Treasury Department during the financial crisis in 2008 that was most influential in encouraging sovereign wealth funds to define a framework of governance practices and principles.

    Known as the Santiago Principles, this set of 24 precepts, agreed to in 2008, are intended to ensure transparent and sound governance with adequate operational controls, risk management and accountability.

    To be successful and in line with the Santiago Principles, a U.S. sovereign wealth fund would have to be grounded in a functional governance structure that allows investment projects to be evaluated based on commercial merit.

    It would also need to be free of political interference and operate openly, transparently and at arm’s length from any personal or professional interests of any related parties.

    Where would it invest?

    The next thing to consider is the fund’s investment objectives and strategy. Trump has suggested that such a fund could be used to buy TikTok. But would that represent a strategic investment that advances the national competitiveness of the U.S.?

    Perhaps instead, a sovereign wealth fund might be better placed investing a majority of its capital in private markets and core infrastructure in the U.S. under a focused strategic mandate that directs money to key national priorities.

    Essential here is for the fund to be “additional.” That is to say it would invest in projects that other investors would not be able to finance on their own due to scale, difficulty or duration. In essence, the fund would “crowd in” investors, rather than crowding them out.

    And what about funding?

    Perhaps the most critical question still remains: Where will the money come from?

    Increased taxes are a nonstarter due to political will and, of course, Trump’s campaign commitments.

    Treasury bond issuances would only increase U.S. debtedness and likely lead to higher inflation. Allocations from the government’s own budget also seem to be a non-starter, as U.S. budget deficits have long been well-entrenched.

    The president has suggested that a fund could use tariff payments – but the reality of the tariff rollout is itself questionable and apparently open to negotiation.

    Malaysia’s 1MDB financed the Tun Razak Exchange tower, the tallest building in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. But it was also the source of the biggest corruption scandal in Malaysian history.
    Ore Huiying/Getty Images

    A more practical option may be a take on the traditional private equity limited partnership. In this model, the U.S. serves as general partner and joins other institutional investors – including other sovereign wealth funds – to invest in the fund.

    As general partner, the U.S. would appoint a management team that would select and manage the investments – for a fee, of course. Its mandate would be to target strong market returns, while advancing the strategic national interests of the U.S.

    The National Investment and Infrastructure Fund in India is one such example. This approach would require a smaller initial capital commitment from the U.S. and give the manager discretion over where and how to deploy capital. Needless to say, the call for strong foundational governance is reinforced under such a plan.

    To be clear: The challenges, constraints and risks of launching a U.S. sovereign wealth fund are orders of magnitude greater than similar endeavors in Guyana or Suriname.

    Imagining the creation of a fund is certainly feasible. But ensuring the fund will genuinely enhance the intergenerational welfare of all Americans may still be far-fetched.

    Patrick J. Schena has not in the last 4 years received grant funding to support his research. He collaborates in areas of mutual research interests with the International Forum of Sovereign Wealth Funds for which he receives no compensation.

    – ref. US sovereign wealth fund: A feasible idea to invest strategically, or a giant opportunity for waste? – https://theconversation.com/us-sovereign-wealth-fund-a-feasible-idea-to-invest-strategically-or-a-giant-opportunity-for-waste-249005

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Journalism has become a blood sport. It is harder and harder to tell the truth’

    A investigative journalism programme — Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) — that has pubiished exposes about the South Pacific and has not been impacted on by the “freeze” of USAID funding has hit back in an editorial calling for support of independent media.

    EDITORIAL: By the OCCRP editors

    “OCCRP is a deep state operation.
    “OCCRP is connected to the CIA.
    “OCCRP was tasked by USAID to overthrow President Donald Trump.”

    How did we end up getting this kind of attention? Old fashioned investigative journalism.

    We wrote a simple story in 2019 about how Rudy Giuliani went to Ukraine for some opposition research and ended up working with people connected to organised crime who misled him.

    Unbeknown to us, a whistleblower found the story online and added it to a complaint that was the basis of President Trump’s first impeachment. We also wrote a story about Hunter Biden‘s business partners and their ties to organised crime but that hasn’t received the same attention.

    Journalism has become a blood sport. It’s harder and harder to tell the truth without someone’s interests getting stepped on.

    OCCRP prides itself on being independent and nonpartisan. No donor has any say in our reporting, but we often find ourselves under attack for our funding.

    It’s not just political interests but organised crime, businesses, enablers, and other journalists who regularly attack us. What’s common in all of these attacks is that the truth doesn’t matter and it will not protect you.

    Few attack the facts in our reporting. Instead we’re left perplexed by how to respond to wild conspiracy theories, outright disinformation, and hyperbolic hatred.

    At the same time, we’ve lost 29 percent of our funding because of the US foreign aid freeze. This includes 82 percent of the money we give to newsrooms in our network, many of which operate in places [Pacific Media Watch: Such as in the Pacific] where no one else will support them.

    This money did not only fund groundbreaking, prize-winning collaborative journalism but it also trained young investigative reporters to expose wrongdoing. It’s money that kept journalists safe from physical and digital attacks and supported those in exile who continued to report on crooks and dictators back in their home countries.

    OCCRP now has 43 less journalists and staff to do our work.

    No attack or funding freeze will stop us from trying to fulfill our mission. Just in the past week, OCCRP and its partners revealed how Russia’s shadow fleet sources its ships, how taxes haven’t been paid on Roman Abramovich’s yachts, and how Syrian intelligence spied on journalists.

    Next week, we’ll take on another set of powerful actors to defend the public interest. And another set the week after that.

    We are determined to stay in the fight and keep reporting on organised crime and the corrupt who enable and benefit from it. But it’s getting harder and we need help.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump’s foreign aid freeze throws independent journalism into chaos

    Pacific Media Watch

    President Donald Trump has frozen billions of dollars around the world in aid projects, including more than $268 million allocated by Congress to support independent media and the free flow of information.

    Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has denounced this decision, which has plunged NGOs, media outlets, and journalists doing vital work into chaotic uncertainty — including in the Pacific.

    In a statement published on its website, RSF has called for international public and private support to commit to the “sustainability of independent media”.

    Since the new American president announced the freeze of US foreign aid on January 20, USAID (United States Agency for International Development) has been in turmoil — its website is inaccessible, its X account has been suspended, the agency’s headquarters was closed and employees told to stay home.

    South African-born American billionaire Elon Musk, an unelected official, whom Trump chose to lead the quasi-official Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has called USAID a “criminal organisation” and declared: “We’re shutting [it] down.”

    Later that day, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that he was named acting director of the agency, suggesting its operations were being moved to the State Department.

    Almost immediately after the freeze went into effect, journalistic organisations around the world — including media groups in the Pacific — that receive American aid funding started reaching out to RSF expressing confusion, chaos, and uncertainty.

    Large and smaller media NGOs affected
    The affected organisations include large international NGOs that support independent media like the International Fund for Public Interest Media and smaller, individual media outlets serving audiences living under repressive conditions in countries like Iran and Russia.

    “The American aid funding freeze is sowing chaos around the world, including in journalism. The programmes that have been frozen provide vital support to projects that strengthen media, transparency, and democracy,” said Clayton Weimers, executive director of RSF USA.

    President Donald Trump . . . “The American aid funding freeze is sowing chaos around the world, including in journalism,” says RSF. Image: RSF

    “President Trump justified this order by charging — without evidence — that a so-called ‘foreign aid industry’ is not aligned with US interests.

    “The tragic irony is that this measure will create a vacuum that plays into the hands of propagandists and authoritarian states. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) is appealing to the international public and private funders to commit to the sustainability of independent media.”

    USAID programmes support independent media in more than 30 countries, but it is difficult to assess the full extent of the harm done to the global media.

    Many organisations are hesitant to draw attention for fear of risking long-term funding or coming under political attacks.

    According to a USAID fact sheet which has since been taken offline, in 2023 the agency funded training and support for 6200 journalists, assisted 707 non-state news outlets, and supported 279 media-sector civil society organisations dedicated to strengthening independent media.

    The USAID website today . . . All USAID “direct hire” staff were reportedly put “on leave” on 7 February 2025. Image: USAID website screenshot APR

    Activities halted overnight
    The 2025 foreign aid budget included $268,376,000 allocated by Congress to support “independent media and the free flow of information”.

    All over the world, media outlets and organisations have had to halt some of their activities overnight.

    “We have articles scheduled until the end of January, but after that, if we haven’t found solutions, we won’t be able to publish anymore,” explains a journalist from a Belarusian exiled media outlet who wished to remain anonymous.

    In Cameroon, the funding freeze forced DataCameroon, a public interest media outlet based in the economic capital Douala, to put several projects on hold, including one focused on journalist safety and another covering the upcoming presidential election.

    An exiled Iranian media outlet that preferred to remain anonymous was forced to suspend collaboration with its staff for three months and slash salaries to a bare minimum to survive.

    An exiled Iranian journalist interviewed by RSF warns that the impact of the funding freeze could silence some of the last remaining free voices, creating a vacuum that Iranian state propaganda would inevitably fill.

    “Shutting us off will mean that they’ll have more power,” she says.

    USAID: the main donor for Ukrainian media
     In Ukraine, where 9 out of 10 outlets rely on subsidies and USAID is the primary donor, several local media have already announced the suspension of their activities and are searching for alternative solutions.

    “At Slidstvo.Info, 80 percent of our budget is affected,” said Anna Babinets, CEO and co-founder of this independent investigative media outlet based in Kyiv.

    The risk of this suspension is that it could open the door to other sources of funding that may seek to alter the editorial line and independence of these media.

    “Some media might be shut down or bought by businessmen or oligarchs. I think Russian money will enter the market. And government propaganda will, of course, intensify,” Babinets said.

    RSF has already witnessed the direct effects of such propaganda — a fabricated video, falsely branded with the organisation’s logo, claimed that RSF welcomed the suspension of USAID funding for Ukrainian media — a stance RSF has never endorsed.

    This is not the first instance of such disinformation.

    Finding alternatives quickly
     This situation highlights the financial fragility of the sector.

    According to Oleh Dereniuha, editor-in-chief of the Ukrainian local media outlet NikVesti, based in Mykolaiv, a city in southeast Ukraine, “The suspension of US funding is just the tip of the iceberg — a key case that illustrates the severity of the situation.”

    Since 2024, independent Ukrainian media outlets have found securing financial sustainability nearly impossible due to the decline in donors.

    As a result, even minor budget cuts could put these media outlets in a precarious position.

    A recent RSF report stressed the need to focus on the economic recovery of the independent Ukrainian media landscape, weakened by the large-scale Russian invasion of February 24, 2022, which RSF’s study estimated to be at least $96 million over three years.

    Moreover, beyond the decline in donor support in Ukraine, media outlets are also facing growing threats to their funding and economic models in other countries.

    Georgia’s Transparency of Foreign Influence Law — modelled after Russia’s legislation — has put numerous media organisations at risk. The Georgian Prime Minister welcomed the US president’s decision with approval.

    This suspension is officially expected to last only 90 days, according to the US government.

    However, some, like Katerina Abramova, communications director for leading exiled Russian media outlet Meduza, fear that the reviews of funding contracts could take much longer.

    Abramova is anticipating the risk that these funds may be permanently cut off.

    “Exiled media are even in a more fragile position than others, as we can’t monetise our audience and the crowdfunding has its limits — especially when donating to Meduza is a crime in Russia,” Abramova stressed.

    By abruptly suspending American aid, the United States has made many media outlets and journalists vulnerable, dealing a significant blow to press freedom.

    For all the media outlets interviewed by RSF, the priority is to recover and urgently find alternative funding.

    How Fijivillage News reported the USAID crackdown by the Trump administration. Image: Fijivillage News screenshot APR

    Fiji, Pacific media, aid groups reel shocked by cuts
    In Suva, Fiji, as Pacific media groups have been reeling from the shock of the aid cuts, Fijivillage News reports that hundreds of local jobs and assistance to marginalised communities are being impacted because Fiji is an AUSAID hub.

    According to an USAID staff member speaking on the condition of anonymity, Trump’s decision has affected hundreds of Fijian jobs due to USAID believing in building local capacity.

    The staff member said millions of dollars in grants for strengthening climate resilience, the healthcare system, economic growth, and digital connectivity in rural communities were now on hold.

    The staff member also said civil society organisations, especially grantees in rural areas that rely on their aid, were at risk.

    Pacific Media Watch and Asia Pacific Report collaborate with Reporters Without Borders.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ecuador’s tough on crime approach is popular, but major challenges remain

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Robert Muggah, Richard von Weizsäcker Fellow na Bosch Academy e Co-fundador, Instituto Igarapé

    Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa moved quickly to impose the rule of law immediately after his surprise election victory in 2023. In the short-term, the results of the country’s youngest ever leader were impressive, including a reported 18% decline in murder in 2024. The president’s administration also reportedly increased drug seizures by over 30% – up from 188 tons in 2023 to 250 tons last year. Despite what some observers describe as a year of chaos, this has made him popular among many Ecuadorians.

    A central thrust of the president’s tough-on-crime strategy involves the imposition of states of emergency and the consolidation of security institutions under his control. Launched in early January 2024, the so-called Bloque de Seguridad strategy integrates the police, armed forces and ministries of interior and national defence. Prisons have also been declared “security zones” and are firmly under the control of the police and military. The president promises to do more of the same if he is re-elected on Feb. 9, 2025.

    The risks of militarized security

    While the militarization of public security has helped reduce sky-high homicide rates, this is only part of the story. Incidents of extortion and kidnapping actually increased last year, suggesting that far from being dismantled, several criminal organizations may be changing their tactics. The head of the national agency responsible for fighting violent crime, DINASED, claims that criminal groups are diversifying into new illicit economies in order to survive.

    One of the limitations of the Ecuadorian government’s response to organized crime is the absence of preventive measures to keep young people from joining criminal groups in the first place. While there is ample support to crack down on criminals, there is appetite for social, educational, and economic initiatives to encourage at-risk to avoid crime altogether. If there is any home of weakening the structures and networks of crime in the longer-term, more comprehensive strategies are needed.

    Another concern is that militarized security responses could give rise to new armed groups, including paramilitaries. While there is still limited evidence of paramilitary activity in Ecuador, the risk is real. Afterall, there is a tradition of so-called “autodefense” and “militia” across the Americas. Meanwhile, researchers have documented over 160 “criminal sanctuaries” (especially in the country’s Guayas and Esmeraldas provinces) where local gangs offer protection in return for “law and order”.

    A related worry among analysts is that harsh crackdown on criminal groups while improving some aspects of public security, may unintentionally contribute to structural transformation of the organized crime landscape. In Ecuador, as in other parts of Latin America, the risks appear to be particularly acute within the prison system itself. Indeed, over the past five years, criminal groups embedded in the penitentiary system have expanded operations nationwide.

    As in countries like Colombia and Mexico, Ecuador’s criminal networks are using violence to coerce and corrupt local politicians. In some cases, crime groups force local authorities to pay them in return for “protection”. Over time this degrades the latter’s authority and legitimacy and entrenches a kind of criminal governance. The so-called “Metastasis scandal” is revealing. Last year, Ecuador’s Attorney General accused 13 people, including politicians and prosecutors, of being involved in the largest case of corruption and drug trafficking in the country’s history.

    Despite repeated police and military interventions to assert control over Ecuador’s penitentiaries, there are still signs of lively criminal economies within the prison walls. Some of these appear to persist on account of involvement of corrupt police and prison guards officials. And even as the Noboa administration cracks down on criminal entities such as Los Choneros, Los Lobos and Los Tiguerones, their fragmentation has resulted in hyper-violent internal power struggles.

    Resorting to states of emergency

    While controversial, the Ecuadorian authorities have issued roughly half a dozen states of emergency since 2022. Some of these are restricted to specific provinces where crime “hotspots” persist. Ecuador’s Constitutional Court recently curbed Noboa’s emergency decrees, citing lack of justification for “internal armed conflict” and unconstitutional restrictions on rights. These rulings likewise stressed the need for lawful security measures rather than resorting to emergency decrees.

    Ecuador was under a state of emergency for more than 250 days in 2024. The latest state of emergency, issued in January this year, grants broad powers to security forces and calls for the deployment of the national police and armed forces into affected areas and prisons. It also permits inspections, searches, and seizures without a warrant, curbs privacy controls and facilitates arbitrary surveillance. Curfews between 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. are enforced in over 22 municipalities.

    Not surprisingly, human rights groups have sounded the alarm, linking the government’s hardline approach to violations of civil liberties on the street and in prisons. Social movements in Guayaquil and towns along the coast have carried-out protests, even as criminal violence escalates. Working in highly insecure conditions, rights activists and defenders continue to mobilize, though public support for Noboa’s law and order approach remains high.

    The enduring appeal of ‘mano dura’ in the Americas

    The spread and influence of transnational organized crime is generating complex challenges across Latin America. On the one hand, it is contributing to rising violence in countries with historically low homicide rates including Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Peru. On the other hand, it is generating rising insecurity in countries that are experiencing stable or declining homicide rates such as Brazil, Colombia, Panama and across Central America and the Caribbean.

    The hyper-aggressive response of certain governments to organized crime is getting considerable attention. The approach adopted by Nayib Bukele in El Salvador since 2022 is widely admired, including by officials in the new Trump administration in the U.S. Similar approaches were also put in place in neighboring Honduras as well as by Noboa in Ecuador. As admiration of Bukele grows, so to the attraction to so-called “mano dura” – or “iron fist” – measures across the region, including the imposition of states of emergency.

    Ecuador’s states of emergency are already generating reverberations across South America. On the one hand, they are being watched closely by political authorities in neighboring countries: if they are seen to be effective, then they will likely be emulated. On the other hand, they are also being monitored by civil society and human rights activists who are deeply concerned that such approaches may be emulated in ways that undermine basic freedoms and liberties.

    There are other practical ways in which Ecuador’s states of emergency are generating regional impacts. The fragmentation of criminal organizations means that some are relocating to areas far from state control, including near frontiers and neighboring countries. This could lead to so-called “contagion”, “displacement” or “balloon” effects, including across international borders. This could lead to a surge in criminal economies, as well as other externalities such as population displacement and migration.

    Ecuador’s next president must adopt a comprehensive approach to tackling organized crime. Disrupting the country’s 22 criminal groups will require cooperation with international partners to take-on the Colombian, Mexican, and Albanian drug trafficking and money laundering networks that back them. It will also involve reversing the infiltration of criminal networks into politics, many of which are corrupting politicians, prosecutors, police and prison guards. Preventive measures targeting impacted communities and poorly managed prisons are likewise essential if Ecuador stands a chance of changing course.

    Os autores não prestam consultoria, trabalham, possuem ações ou recebem financiamento de qualquer empresa ou organização que se beneficiaria deste artigo e não revelaram qualquer vínculo relevante além de seus cargos acadêmicos.

    – ref. Ecuador’s tough on crime approach is popular, but major challenges remain – https://theconversation.com/ecuadors-tough-on-crime-approach-is-popular-but-major-challenges-remain-249441

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Doechii’s Thom Browne look at the Grammys bridged street culture and luxury fashion

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Pierre-Yann Dolbec, Associate Professor of Marketing, Concordia University

    American rapper Doechii turned heads on the Grammy Awards red carpet on Feb. 2 in a striking Thom Browne ensemble: an off-the-shoulder corset suit dress with exaggerated hips, paired with a crisp white shirt and grey tie.

    The look was both classic and undeniably subversive — a fitting image for the transformation of the fashion world since the early 2000s. Not too long ago, the idea of a rap artist spotlighting a luxury tailor’s creation would have seemed jarring.

    Streetwear and high fashion once lived in separate worlds. Luxury brands sold exclusivity; haute couture, hand-stitched gowns and fine tailoring. Streetwear, on the other hand, was about authenticity and everyday life, with deep ties to subcultures around skateboarding and hip-hop.

    While designers at major high fashion houses occasionally took inspiration from street style in the 1990s and early 2000s — for instance, borrowing stylistic innovations from hip-hop and grunge — high fashion brands kept streetwear brands and designers at a distance.

    When Harlem designer Daniel R. Day — better known as Dapper Dan — repurposed Louis Vuitton and Gucci prints into custom streetwear pieces in the late 1980s, luxury labels sued him out of business. When Supreme used Louis Vuitton’s monogram on its skateboards in 2000, the fashion house hit them with a cease-and-desist order.

    Yet, Doechii’s four custom Thom Browne looks for the Grammys highlight how close hip-hop culture and high fashion now are.

    The birth of luxury streetwear

    The clear divide between streetwear and luxury fashion didn’t happen by accident. In the early 2010s, designers such as Virgil Abloh, Jerry Lorenzo and Shayne Oliver bridged the gap between streetwear and high fashion by pioneering what came to be known as “luxury streetwear.”

    This emerging style blended streetwear staples with luxury fashion production, values and beliefs. Designers crafted hoodies in Italy, integrated sneakers and tees into showstopping runway presentations. Like high fashion houses, they anchored their collections around artists and elevated conceptual work, transforming streetwear-inspired design into an art form.

    By mixing streetwear’s authenticity with high fashion exclusivity, brands like Fear of God, Hood by Air and Off-White gained the respect of luxury consumers and critics alike while retaining street culture’s cool factor.

    High fashion embraces streetwear

    By the mid-2010s, the same high-fashion elite that once kept streetwear at a distance began to see its commercial and cultural potential. Major fashion houses like Burberry and Dior experimented with limited-edition collaborations with streetwear designers, borrowing not just an aesthetic but also distribution tactics like “drops” — a limited, time-sensitive product release by fashion brands.

    The luxury streetwear shift came full circle when Gucci collaborated with Dapper Dan and when Louis Vuitton joined forces with Supreme in 2017. These collections sold out in hours and also served to draw in younger consumers initially uninterested by high fashion.

    Leading fashion houses started hiring luxury streetwear designers in top creative positions and, in some cases, acquiring established luxury streetwear brands.

    This strategy not only refreshed their brand image, but also expanded their appeal to new audiences. It reflected a broader culture shift where luxury is increasingly characterized by authenticity, shared community and pop culture relevance, rather than old-money status signals.

    These shifts opened the door for artists and figures from hip-hop and adjacent creative fields to take on prominent roles. Artists Rihanna, Frank Ocean and Kendrick Lamar have fronted high fashion campaigns, and rappers like A$AP Rocky and Travis Scott have walked the runway for high fashion houses and worked on high fashion collections, leading critics to claim that “rappers are fashion’s new royalty.”

    Doechii’s watershed moment

    The influence of streetwear on luxury was on full display at this year’s Grammys. When Doechii accepted her groundbreaking award — becoming only the third female artist to earn a Grammy for Best Rap Album — she wore another Thom Browne creation: a cropped, short-sleeved grey jacket with a tie, paired with dramatically structured and tiered balloon pants.

    Once considered an unlikely pairing, Doechii’s choice of a luxury label famed for its avant-garde suits reflected the dismantling of a boundary long separating high fashion from hip-hop culture.

    During her acceptance speech, Doechii addressed tearing down another boundary:

    “So many Black women out there that are watching me right now and I want to tell you … Don’t allow anybody to project any stereotypes on you, that tell you that you can’t be here, that you’re too dark or that you’re not smart enough or that you’re too dramatic or you’re too loud. You are exactly who you need to be, to be right where you are, and I am a testimony.”

    Her fashion choice and her message ran in parallel: just as her Thom Browne looks reflected a broader cultural shift, one in which a once-marginalized culture has claimed space at the pinnacle of luxury, her words underscored the continued need to break down societal barriers that have sidelined Black women.

    Tensions behind the scenes

    Despite the celebratory tone surrounding luxury’s embrace of streetwear, deeper tensions persist behind the scenes. The key question is not just about influence but about who wields control and reaps the financial benefits.

    Rather than merely adopting streetwear’s aesthetics, high fashion has strategically absorbed it, spotlighting select designers to project an image of inclusivity while ensuring that the status hierarchy remains intact.

    This process offers genuine opportunities for a few, but ultimately reinforces existing power dynamics, allowing luxury brands to appear progressive while maintaining their dominance and capturing the value created by the less powerful.

    As the fashion industry evolves, it must address issues of cultural appropriation and elite capture to and ensure that the voices behind these influential styles receive due recognition and compensation.

    But for consumers on the outside looking in, Doechii’s Grammys moment illustrates a power shift. High fashion, once sealed-off and hierarchical, has become more open, fluid and reflective of diverse backgrounds and artistic visions.

    Pierre-Yann Dolbec receives funding from Concordia University, the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada, and the Fonds de Recherche du Québec.

    – ref. Doechii’s Thom Browne look at the Grammys bridged street culture and luxury fashion – https://theconversation.com/doechiis-thom-browne-look-at-the-grammys-bridged-street-culture-and-luxury-fashion-249334

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Efficiency − or empire? How Elon Musk’s hostile takeover could end government as we know it

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Allison Stanger, Distinguished Endowed Professor, Middlebury

    Elon Musk, right, has moved to take the reins of the U.S. government. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

    Elon Musk’s role as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency, also known as DOGE, is on the surface a dramatic effort to overhaul the inefficiencies of federal bureaucracy. But beneath the rhetoric of cost-cutting and regulatory streamlining lies a troubling scenario.

    Musk has been appointed what is called a “special government employee” in charge of the White House office formerly known as the U.S. Digital Service, which was renamed the U.S. DOGE Service on the first day of President Donald Trump’s second term. The Musk team’s purported goals are to maximize efficiency and to eliminate waste and redundancy.

    That might sound like a bold move toward Silicon Valley-style innovation in governance. However, the deeper motivations driving Musk’s involvement are unlikely to be purely altruistic.

    Musk has an enormous corporate empire, ambitions in artificial intelligence, desire for financial power and a long-standing disdain for government oversight. His access to sensitive government systems and ability to restructure agencies, with the opaque decision-making guiding DOGE to date, have positioned Musk to extract unprecedented financial and strategic benefits for both himself and his companies, which include the electric car company Tesla and space transport company SpaceX.

    One historical parallel in particular is striking. In 1600, the British East India Company, a merchant shipping firm, began with exclusive rights to conduct trade in the Indian Ocean region before slowly acquiring quasi-governmental powers and ultimately ruling with an iron fist over British colonies in Asia, including most of what is now India. In 1677, the company gained the right to mint currency on behalf of the British crown.

    As I explain in my upcoming book “Who Elected Big Tech?” the U.S. is witnessing a similar pattern of a private company taking over government operations.

    Yet what took centuries in the colonial era is now unfolding at lightning speed in mere days through digital means. In the 21st century, data access and digital financial systems have replaced physical trading posts and private armies. Communications are the key to power now, rather than brute strength.

    A security officer blocks U.S. Sen. Ed Markey, right, from entering the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency headquarters on Feb. 6, 2025, in an effort to meet with DOGE staff.
    Al Drago/Getty Images

    The data pipeline

    Viewing Musk’s moves as a power grab becomes clearer when examining his corporate empire. He controls multiple companies that have federal contracts and are subject to government regulations. SpaceX and Tesla, as well as tunneling firm The Boring Company, the brain science company Neuralink, and artificial intelligence firm xAI all operate in markets where government oversight can make or break fortunes.

    In his new role, Musk can oversee – and potentially dismantle – the government agencies that have traditionally constrained his businesses. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has repeatedly investigated Tesla’s Autopilot system; the Securities and Exchange Commission has penalized Musk for market-moving tweets; environmental regulations have constrained SpaceX.

    Through DOGE, all these oversight mechanisms could be weakened or eliminated under the guise of efficiency.

    But the most catastrophic aspect of Musk’s leadership at DOGE is its unprecedented access to government data. DOGE employees reportedly have digital permission to see data in the U.S. government’s payment system, which includes bank account information, Social Security numbers and income tax documents. Reportedly, they have also seized the ability to alter the system’s software, data, transactions and records.

    Multiple media reports indicate that Musk’s staff have already made changes to the programs that process payments for Social Security beneficiaries and government contractors to make it easier to block payments and hide records of payments blocked, made or altered.

    But DOGE employees only need to be able to read the data to make copies of Americans’ most sensitive personal information.

    A federal court has ordered that not to happen – at least for now. Even so, funneling the data into Grok, Musk’s xAI-created artificial intelligence system, which is already connected with the Musk-owned X, formerly known as Twitter, would create an unparalleled capability for predicting economic shifts, identifying government vulnerabilities and modeling voter behavior.

    That’s an enormous and alarming amount of information and power for any one person to have.

    Candidate Donald Trump speaks at a key cryptocurrency industry conference in July 2024.
    AP Photo/Mark Humphrey

    Cryptocurrency coup?

    Like Trump himself and many of his closest advisers, Musk is also deeply involved in cryptocurrency. The parallel emergence of Trump’s own cryptocurrency and DOGE’s apparent alignment with the cryptocurrency known as Dogecoin suggests more than coincidence. I believe it points to a coordinated strategy for control of America’s money and economic policy, effectively placing the United States in entirely private hands.

    The genius – and danger – of this strategy lies in the fact that each step might appear justified in isolation: modernizing government systems, improving efficiency, updating payment infrastructure. But together, they create the scaffolding for transferring even more financial power to the already wealthy.

    Musk’s authoritarian tendencies, evident in his forceful management of X and his assertion that it was illegal to publish the names of people who work for him, suggest how he might wield his new powers. Companies critical of Musk could face unexpected audits; regulatory agencies scrutinizing his businesses could find their budgets slashed; allies could receive privileged access to government contracts.

    This isn’t speculation – it’s the logical extension of DOGE’s authority combined with Musk’s demonstrated behavior.

    Critics are calling Musk’s actions at DOGE a massive corporate coup. Others are simply calling it a coup. The protest movement is gaining momentum in Washington, D.C., and around the country, but it’s unlikely that street protests alone can stop what Musk is doing.

    Who can effectively investigate a group designed to dismantle oversight itself? The administration’s illegal firing of at least a dozen inspectors general before the Musk operation began suggests a deliberate strategy to eliminate government accountability. The Republican-led Congress, closely aligned with Trump, may not want to step in; but even if it did, Musk is moving far faster than Congress ever does.

    Destroy the republic, build a startup nation?

    Taken together, all of Musk’s and Trump’s moves lay the foundation for what cryptocurrency investor and entrepreneur Balaji Srinivasan calls “the network state.”

    The idea is that a virtual nation may form online before establishing any physical presence. Think of the network state like a tech startup company with its own cryptocurrency – instead of declaring independence and fighting for sovereignty, it first builds community and digital systems. By the time a Musk-aligned cryptocurrency gained official status, the underlying structure and relationships would already be in place, making alternatives impractical.

    Converting more of the world’s financial system into privately controlled cryptocurrencies would take power away from national governments, which must answer to their own people. Musk has already begun this effort, using his wealth and social media reach to engage in politics not only in the U.S. but also several European countries, including Germany.

    A nation governed by a cryptocurrency-based system would no longer be run by the people living in its territory but by those who could could afford to buy the digital currency. In this scenario, I am concerned that Musk, or the Communist Party of China, Russian President Vladimir Putin or AI-surveillance conglomerate Palantir, could render irrelevant Congress’ power over government spending and action. And along the way, it could remove the power to hold presidents accountable from Congress, the judiciary and American citizens.

    All of this obviously presents a thicket of conflict-of-interest problems that are wholly unprecedented in scope and scale.

    The question facing Americans, therefore, isn’t whether government needs modernization – it’s whether they’re willing to sacrifice democracy in pursuit of Musk’s version of efficiency. When we grant tech leaders direct control over government functions, we’re not just streamlining bureaucracy – we’re fundamentally altering the relationship between private power and public governance. I believe we’re undermining American national security, as well as the power of We, the People.

    The most dangerous inefficiency of all may be Americans’ delayed response to this crisis.

    Allison Stanger receives funding from the Berkman Klein Center for Internet and Society, Harvard University

    – ref. Efficiency − or empire? How Elon Musk’s hostile takeover could end government as we know it – https://theconversation.com/efficiency-or-empire-how-elon-musks-hostile-takeover-could-end-government-as-we-know-it-249262

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Hollywood is finally telling a different kind of age-gap romance story

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lucy Brown, Professor of Film and Television, Head of Screen, Assistant Head of School, Westminster School of Media and Communications, University of Westminster, University of Westminster

    The ageist and sexist trope of the cougar, milf, or Mrs Robinson – a desperate older woman pursuing a relationship with a younger, less interested man – is being challenged by a spate of Hollywood movies pairing older women with younger men.

    For generations, the idealised relationship on screen has been for an older man and a younger woman. This casting practice dates back to Hollywood’s silent era and mirrors global cultural norms. The real average age gap in the west, meanwhile, is much narrower than the silver screen would have you believe, standing at 2.2 years in the US.

    Mirroring what we see in the cinema, however, research on heterosexual relationship preferences in Europe, published in December, indicated that men prefer relationships with younger women. And that preferred gap increases as men age. In contrast, women prefer a smaller age gap as they age. And in their 60s, they tend to prefer a slightly younger partner.

    The history of Hollywood age gaps

    Many Hollywood classics feature significant age gaps. Debbie Reynolds starred opposite a 40-year-old Gene Kelly when she was just 19 in Singin’ in the Rain (1952). Kim Novak was paired with 50-year-old James Stewart in Vertigo (1958) when she was just 25. And Maria Schneider was only 19 when she was coupled with Marlon Brando, then 49, for Last Tango in Paris (1972).

    Reynolds and Schneider have both spoken about the abusive on-set power dynamics that ensued. Reynolds felt assaulted when Kelly “shoved his tongue” down her throat, and Schneider accused both Brando and director Bernardo Bertolucci of sexual assault.

    More recent, and now notorious pairings, which demonstrate the ubiquity of double digit age differences include 30-year-old Catherine Zeta-Jones and 69-year-old Sean Connery in Entrapment (1990). A 27-year-old Eva Mendes paired with 47-year-old Denzel Washington in Training Day (2001). And 22-year-old Gemma Arterton as the romantic interest of 40-year-old Daniel Craig in Quantum of Solace (2008).

    Actor Laura Dern has reflected that the 20-year age gap between her and Sam Neill in Jurassic Park (1993), which was considered the norm in the 1990s, now feels “completely inappropriate”.

    Flipping the script

    Audiences are tiring of Hollywood’s habit of pairing younger stars with men old enough to be their fathers and are calling for change.

    The casting of Cillian Murphy and Florence Pugh in Oppenheimer (2023) received a backlash for the 20-year age gap between the two actors. This came particularly as the film featured lingering nudity of Pugh, and the age gap was ten years greater than the real life age gap between the characters they play.

    When Hollywood has depicted an inversion of this age gap dynamic in the past, it’s generally been done to demonise the older woman. One of the most renowned examples is The Graduate (1967). The film starred Dustin Hoffman as a 21 year old at the mercy of a middle-aged seducer Mrs Robinson (Anne Bancroft). Mrs Robinson is at the periphery of the story and portrayed as a sad, fading beauty in competition with her daughter who eventually “wins” the man.

    This depiction of a bitter older woman is being challenged by a surge of recent films that centre characters over 40. Babygirl (2025) stars 57-year-old Nicole Kidman as a CEO in a relationship with an intern 30 years her junior, defying gendered stereotypes and sexual power dynamics.



    Read more:
    Babygirl’s provocative exploration of power, infidelity and eroticism – reviewed by a sex therapist

    Similarly, Anne Hathaway, 41 in The Idea of You, falls for a 24-year-old pop star. Unlike the daughter in Mrs Robinson, who is perceived as the competition, her character’s daughter has her back and acknowledges the double standards women face when the age gap is this way around.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Even so, 2024 was referred to dismissively by some as “the year of the cougar” following the release of two Netflix romcoms, A Family Affair (again with Nicole Kidman, this time paired with 36-year-old Zac Efron) and Lonely Planet (with 57-year-old Laura Dern and 34-year-old Liam Hemsworth).

    Despite this online mockery, the trend looks set to continue. The upcoming Bridget Jones sequel, Mad About the Boy, will show Bridget (played by Renée Zellweger who is now in her 50s) dating a 29-year-old Leo Woodall. Meanwhile I Want Your Sex, set to release in late 2025, will star Olivia Wilde, 40, opposite Cooper Hoffman, 21.

    Women still only make up 23% of writers and directors in Hollywood. Interestingly, the recent films featuring older women and younger men couples have more women in key creative roles behind the scenes.

    Lonely Planet and Babygirl were written and directed by women (Susannah Grant and Halina Reijn). A Family Affair and May December were written by women (Carrie Solomon and Samy Burch). And I Want Your Sex and Mad About the Boy have a mix of genders on their writing teams.

    The need for more women to be involved in the creative decision-making to amplify women’s voices is crucial. Research shows that women make up only 35% of speaking parts and roles for women start to nose-dive post 30.

    No wonder then that Reese Witherspoon, Amy Adams and Kerry Washington are just a few of the Hollywood actresses who have established production companies to tell stories that reflect the wide range of women’s experiences, sexual desires and vulnerabilities – and celebrate the complexity and diversity of their relationships.

    Lucy Brown does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why Hollywood is finally telling a different kind of age-gap romance story – https://theconversation.com/why-hollywood-is-finally-telling-a-different-kind-of-age-gap-romance-story-248352

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Record January heat suggests La Niña may be losing its ability to keep global warming in check

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Richard P. Allan, Professor of Climate Science, University of Reading

    January 2025 was the hottest on record – a whole 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels. If many climate-watchers expected the world to cool slightly this year thanks to the natural “La Niña” phenomena, the climate itself didn’t seem to get the memo. In fact, January 2025’s record heat highlights how human-driven ocean warming is increasingly overwhelming these natural climate patterns.

    La Niña is a part of the El Niño southern oscillation, a climate fluctuation that slowly sloshes vast bodies of water and heat between different ocean basins and disrupts weather patterns around the world. El Niño was first identified and christened by Peruvian fishermen who noticed a dismal drop in their catch of sardines that coincided with much warmer than usual coastal waters.

    El Niño is now well known to be part of a grander climate reorganisation that also has a reverse cool phase, La Niña. As vast swathes of the eastern Pacific cool down during La Niña, this has knock on effects for atmospheric weather patterns, shifting the most vigorous storms from the central Pacific to the west and disrupting the prevailing winds across the globe.

    This atmospheric reaction also helps to amplify the sea surface temperature changes. Typically, La Niña will lower the global temperature by a couple of tenths of a degree Celsius.

    In 2024 the Pacific swung from moderate El Niño conditions to a weak La Niña. However, this time around, it’s apparently not enough to stop the world warming – even temporarily. So what’s different this time?

    Each La Niña cycle is unique

    Scientists aren’t entirely surprised. Each El Niño and La Niña cycle is unique. Following an surprisingly lengthy “triple dip” La Niña starting in 2020, the El Niño that developed in 2023 was also unusual, struggling to stand out against globally warm seas. The switch to a weak La Niña has only slightly cooled a narrow band along the equatorial Pacific, while surrounding waters have remained unusually hot.

    Recent research shows human caused warming of the ocean is accelerating – so a year on year rise in temperature is itself getting bigger – and this is dominating to an ever greater extent over El Niño and other natural oscillations in the climate. This means that even during La Niña – when equatorial eastern Pacific waters are cooler than normal – the rest of the world’s oceans have remained remarkably warm.

    More carbon, less reflection

    There is also a sense of inevitability as greenhouse gas levels continue to grow, even despite the demise of El Niño. During El Niño years, the land tends to absorb less carbon from the atmosphere as large continental areas, such as parts of South America, temporarily dry out causing less plant growth and more carbon-emitting plant decay.

    La Niña tends to have the opposite effect. In the strong La Niña of 2011, so much extra rain fell on the normally dry lands of Australia and parts of South America and southeast Asia that sea levels dropped as the land held on to this excess moisture borrowed temporarily from the ocean. This meant more carbon was taken from the atmosphere to feed extra plant growth. But despite the switch to La Niña, the rate of rise in atmospheric carbon in 2024 and January 2025 remains above the already high levels of previous years.

    To this we can also add the diminishing effects of particle pollution from industry, big ships and other sources of “aerosols”, which in some regions had added a reflective haze in the atmosphere meaning the world absorbed less sunlight. Clean air policies introduced over time have made the world less smoggy, but they also seem to have caused clouds to reflect less sunlight back to space, adding to global heating.

    As industrial activity continues to spew greenhouse gases into the air, while air cleansed of particle pollution causes more sunlight to reach the ground, this growing heating effect is beginning to drown out natural fluctuations, tipping the balance toward record warmth and worsening hot, dry and wet extremes.

    The long-term trend is clear

    But, just as one swallow doesn’t make a summer, a single month is not reflective of the overall trajectory of climate change. Changing weather patterns from week to week can rapidly shift temperatures especially over big landmasses, which warm up and cool down more quickly than the oceans (it takes a long time to boil up water for your vegetables but not long to super heat an empty pan).

    Large areas of Europe, Canada and Siberia experienced much less cold weather than is normal for January (by up to about 7°C). Parts of South America, Africa, Australia and Antarctica also experienced above average temperatures. Along with the balmy oceans, this all contributed to an unexpectedly warm start to 2025.

    While this particular warm January isn’t necessarily cause for immediate alarm, it suggests natural cooling phases may become less effective at temporarily offsetting the impact of rising greenhouse gas levels on global temperatures. And to limit the scale of the inevitable, ensuing climate change, there is a clear, urgent need to rapidly and massively cut greenhouse gas emissions and to properly account for the true cost of our lifestyles on societies and the ecosystems that underpin them.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Richard P. Allan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Record January heat suggests La Niña may be losing its ability to keep global warming in check – https://theconversation.com/record-january-heat-suggests-la-nina-may-be-losing-its-ability-to-keep-global-warming-in-check-249389

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US pressure has forced Panama to quit China’s Belt and Road Initiative – it could set the pattern for further superpower clashes

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tabita Rosendal, PhD Candidate, China Studies, Lund University

    Following Donald Trump’s repeated claims that the US needs to “take back” the Panama canal from Chinese control, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, visited Panama to demand the country reduce China’s influence. On the surface, it seems Rubio has succeeded.

    On February 3, the Panamanian authorities withdrew from the China’s international infrastructure programme, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This makes Panama the first Latin American country both to endorse and to end cooperation with the BRI.

    On February 4, local lawyers urged the country’s supreme court to cancel the concession given to Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Port Holdings which allows it to operate two ports at either end of the Panama canal. They say it violates the country’s constitution since it contains excessive tax breaks and cedes significant land areas to the port company. The Panamanian authorities are reportedly still considering this.

    But what is the reality of China’s presence in the canal, and what does increased US scrutiny mean for Xi Jinping’s signature project?

    The Panama canal is a key passage for US trade and military. The US accounts for 74% of canal cargo. However, while Trump’s fears of losing the canal may be understandable, his assertions about China’s influence are exaggerated.

    The Panamanian government administers the canal through the Panama Canal Authority. Since 1997, CK Hutchison Port Holdings Limited, a Hong Kong-listed conglomerate with interests in over 53 ports in 24 countries, has operated the Port of Balboa and Port of Cristobal on either end of the canal. These are two out of five ports in the vicinity.

    CK Hutchison Holdings Limited is one of the world’s leading port investors and is owned by billionaire Li Ka-shing. The company and projects have no direct ties with the BRI.

    The primary risks concerning China’s influence over the canal, as outlined by the US, are the potential for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to control the canal and “shut it down”.

    Washington has also expressed concerns that the CCP’s access to dual-use port technology allows it to gather intelligence about US ships, such as transshipment patterns and naval routes. It also fears that China can exert an “economic chokehold” on the US in terms of the imposition of rate hikes on transit fees.

    The first two points encompass the potential for China to use ports for naval purposes. But while the People’s Liberation Army navy has access to Chinese-owned ports under domestic laws and policies, they require host country permission to use Chinese-operated foreign ports. These ports are also often ill-suited for military support and operations.

    So the most probable risk concerns intelligence. If the CCP deems it necessary to national security, it may use the 2020 national security law to gather sensitive data from Hong Kong-based companies.

    As for rate hikes, there have been recent increases in response to droughts, maintenance investments and demand. Following Rubio’s visit, the US has claimed it is allowed to transit without paying fees.

    This has been denied by Panama’s President, José Raúl Mulino. The fees are equally imposed due to neutrality principles initiated in 1977. There is no evidence that China has played any role in these rate hikes.

    Panama’s ‘BRI-xit’ and Trump’s geopolitical gamble

    In the unlikely event that CK Hutchison’s concession is cancelled, what would that mean for China’s presence in Panama? China’s investments in Panama precede the BRI, even if they have increased since the initiative’s launch.

    The country holds geostrategic importance due to its location and role in international trade. So it’s a critical link for China’s establishment of a regional gateway for its economic and political influence.

    This includes securing raw material and energy resource imports and enhancing export capabilities. China’s engagements in Panama include foreign direct investments (FDI), which amounted to around 0.8% in 2023 (compared to 3.6% by Spain and 19.6% by the US), primarily in the logistics, infrastructure, energy and construction sectors.

    Most have been promoted as part of the BRI and faced renegotiation or cancellation for various – often geopolitical – reasons.

    Since BRI projects in the canal are already quite limited, withdrawing from the initiative is unlikely to result in significant short-term changes. CK Hutchison will only be “slightly affected” in case of a contract cancellation.

    What’s more, as the case of Brazil shows, a country can remain unaffiliated with the BRI and still receive Chinese investments.

    Therefore, Chinese engagements will probably resume outside the BRI framework. Still, even though China has shown restrained disappointment and argued that Panama has made a “regrettable decision,” Sino-Panamanian relations may cool until Trump’s attention has turned elsewhere.

    Trump’s rhetoric over the Panama canal may be exaggerated to appease a domestic audience rooting for a “strongman president”. But it also reflects decades of US concerns about China’s growing clout.

    So the administration’s focus on containing China is hardly surprising. Instead, it demonstrates Trump’s broader “make America great again 2.0” strategy. Therefore, Panama’s “BRI-xit” may bolster US resolve on “reclaiming” the Americas.

    The Panamanian authorities seem caught between US pressure to limit China’s influence and the economic boost provided by Chinese “pragmatic” investments. So like other BRI countries, they face tough choices in the coming years.

    As the largest provider of FDI – US$3.8 billion (£3.05 billion) per annum – and the canal’s biggest customer, US influence and economic leverage over Panama is substantial. Conversely, China’s interests and engagements in the country have increased, and the CCP has made it clear that it is patient and wants to continue cooperation and “resist external interruption”.

    Protests have erupted in Panama over Trump’s “muscular approach”, and residents have expressed strong reluctance to return to US rule. Therefore, the question remains whether this is the “great step forward” for Panama’s ties with the US that Rubio suggests or whether Trump’s actions will ultimately push Panama closer to Beijing.

    Tabita Rosendal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US pressure has forced Panama to quit China’s Belt and Road Initiative – it could set the pattern for further superpower clashes – https://theconversation.com/us-pressure-has-forced-panama-to-quit-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-it-could-set-the-pattern-for-further-superpower-clashes-249093

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Stories about repeating history – what to watch, read and see this week

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Naomi Joseph, Arts + Culture Editor

    “Here they are, my lost people, in need of strongmen and simple ideas,” says Benito Mussolini to the camera. It is March 23 1919, and all that we know will happen in Italy and all that we know this man will become is only just being set in motion. Mussolini: Son of the Century, a new Italian-language Sky Atlantic TV series, tells the story of this beginning, of the rise of Italian fascism and its consolidation in power from 1919 to 1925.

    Set out in eight parts, it’s a striking and powerful piece of TV. Italian actor Luca Marinelli performs indomitably as the 35-year-old soon-to-be dictator, Benito Mussolini. Our reviewer, expert in Italian history John Foot, has spent countless hours studying and watching Mussolini. He was blown away by the precision with which Marinelli expels torrents of words – many of which have been drawn directly from Mussolini’s journalism and speeches.

    The series is coming at a moment when far-right leaders are winning elections all over the world and its director, Joe Wright, is keenly aware. This series is clearly a warning. Democracy is fragile. Yes, this series is about the man who would become “Il Duce” (the Duke) but it shows, as Foot notes, how he was enabled and how easily his incendiary language and the violence of his supporters were ignored.

    Mussolini: Son of the Century is available on Sky Atlantic now



    Read more:
    Why I loved the new Mussolini drama – by an expert in Italian fascism

    Dark history

    If you’re looking to learn about another bit of global history through brilliant storytelling let me recommend the director Tim Fehlbaum’s new film September 5. The film recounts the Black September attack on the Israeli team at the 1972 Munich Olympics.

    As our reviewer, film expert Barry Langford writes, this incident arguably introduced the term “terrorist” to many viewers for the first time. The story has been told many times but the focus here is on the American sports broadcasting crew tasked with covering the hostage crisis. The drama unfolds almost entirely within the confines of the control room.

    It is a tense and tightly-packed 94 minutes that does this story justice and shows that big topics can be handled well in short (for these days) films.

    September 5 is in cinemas now.



    Read more:
    September 5: tense and taut drama vividly recreates the Munich massacre

    Another historical fiction recommendation is the new book from the Nobel literature prize-winning South Korean author Han Kang, We Do Not Part. First published in 2021 and now translated into English, it takes on the memories and lasting shadow of Jeju 4.3 (1947 to 1948) on the families who survived.

    The official figure of how many people died is still not known, and it’s assumed that around 10% of the population of Jeju island was killed during this US-backed operation by the Korean government to eradicate communists and their sympathisers. The incident was suppressed by the government until 2000 when it was officially recognised.

    In this book, Kang bears witness to the horror through Kyungha, who is snowed in at her friend Inseon’s compound in Jeju. There, she discovers Inseon’s lifelong investigation into her family’s experiences of the massacres.

    It is told in a sort of dizzying, fragmentary style where excerpts of interviews, descriptions of pictures and passages of memories intersect with Kyungha’s present. Haunting and harrowing at times, it features Han Kang’s typical precise language and brilliantly unnerving and dreamlike storytelling.



    Read more:
    We Do Not Part by Han Kang: a haunting story which forces the reader to remember a horrific incident in Korea’s past that it tried to erase

    Killer robots and giant whales

    Film’s fascination with the possibility of sexy female robots goes back to Fritz Lang’s Metropolis in 1927. Men lust after these robots, but also fear them – and often rightly so. Some of my favourites in this genre are Ridley Scott’s Blade Runner (1982), Alex Garland’s Ex Machina (2014) and now Drew Hancock’s Companion (2025).

    Companion follows Iris and Josh, a seemingly average couple bound in their driverless car for a weekend away with Josh’s friends. Iris, like many girlfriends in this scenario, is eager to be a success. But, she isn’t a normal girl, she’s a sophisticated humanoid companion bot – something she doesn’t know about herself … yet. What begins with dinner parties and dancing soon devolves into violence as something in her programming goes wrong.

    As our reviewer Sarah Artt notes: “What makes Companion unsettling is not so much its depiction of cyborgs but rather its portrayal of misogyny.” This glossy film asks what makes someone a good partner to anyone, sophisticated robot or otherwise. Does our treatment and respect of humanoid bots and AI matter? I saw this film last week and am still thinking about it.

    Companion is in cinemas now.



    Read more:
    Companion review: this sleek but violent film asks interesting ethical questions about our relationship with AI

    Finally, if you are in or happen to be going to Winchester this month, pop by the cathedral to gawp in awe at three huge sculptures of sperm whales hanging from the ceiling in the nave. The immersive exhibition Whales is by artist Tessa Campbell Fraser and asks visitors to stare up at the majesty of these almighty creatures and contemplate humankind’s increasing ecological impact on the world’s climate.

    Whales is on at Winchester Cathedral until February 26.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    – ref. Stories about repeating history – what to watch, read and see this week – https://theconversation.com/stories-about-repeating-history-what-to-watch-read-and-see-this-week-249297

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Lucy Letby case: the problems with expert evidence

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amel Alghrani, Professor of Law, University of Liverpool

    The Lucy Letby case is the latest in a number of UK criminal medical cases that, beyond the rights and wrongs of each verdict, raise serious questions around how such cases are tried – especially when the evidence is limited, complex, and circumstantial. These cases often rely heavily on expert witnesses, whose testimony is crucial yet can be open to interpretation.

    As an expert in the intersection of criminal and medical law, I am particularly concerned with how prosecution teams gather expert evidence in such cases – and how it is then communicated to juries through expert witnesses.

    Generally speaking, in complex medical cases, police and prosecutors may risk becoming overly reliant on a small pool of experts when dealing with highly technical issues beyond their expertise. This dependence can inadvertently lead to “cherry-picking” – selectively presenting evidence that supports a particular narrative, while overlooking alternative perspectives that could provide a more comprehensive or balanced view.

    In the Letby case, the prosecution’s selection and interpretation of evidence has now been challenged by an independent panel of 14 neonatal and paediatric experts. Letby is serving 15 whole-life prison terms after being convicted of murdering seven babies and attempting to kill another seven at the Countess of Chester hospital in north-west England. The chair of the panel, retired Canadian neonatologist Dr Shoo Lee, was co-author of a 1989 academic paper on air embolism in babies that was used in the prosecution’s case, but now says this evidence was misinterpreted by the prosecution.

    In complex medical cases, I’m concerned that prosecutors – who may lack the medical expertise needed to fully grasp these complexities – may gravitate toward experts whose opinions align with a prosecutorial narrative, whether consciously or not. This can result in a narrowing of expert perspectives which might tend to focus only on those that bolster the case for conviction, while alternative views that could provide a more balanced assessment are excluded or marginalised.

    In trials where juries hear only a limited number of expert voices, there’s a risk they may not receive a sufficiently balanced understanding of the case. In addition, rare diagnoses may lack the robust scientific literature typically needed to validate medical opinions in court.

    Medical experts, like professionals in any field, can have differing opinions, especially in cases involving judgment calls or grey areas in medical practice. Without exposure to a range of viewpoints, jurors may miss alternative interpretations of the same evidence, which could be crucial for fair deliberation.

    Of course, the defence also has the opportunity to call its own experts, potentially offering counter-arguments to prosecution evidence. But decisions by a defence team not to call certain experts may be based on legal strategy, resource constraints, or concerns about how the testimony will withstand cross-examination. When this happens, it can amplify the weight of the prosecution’s selected experts, potentially skewing the jury’s understanding.

    Jurors naturally place a high level of trust in experts, assuming their testimony is both accurate and confined to their area of expertise. So, when experts venture beyond their remit, jurors may accept these statements uncritically, unaware that such testimony may lack the depth required in such complex medical cases. This issue is particularly concerning in circumstantial prosecutions where the case often hinges more on expert interpretation than on direct evidence, increasing the risk of misunderstanding or misjudgment.

    Expert overreach

    Testimony from experts unfamiliar with the practical pressures of certain clinical settings may lead to distorted interpretations of what a “reasonable” course of action would have been under the circumstances. This can result in unfair judgments, particularly when the nuances of clinical decision-making aren’t fully explored.

    Experts also sometimes “overreach” their duties in court, offering opinions that extend beyond their remit. In the case of surgeon David Sellu, who was jailed for gross negligence manslaughter in November 2013 before being freed three years later, having spent 15 months in prison, the court of appeal noted that expert witnesses had repeatedly expressed opinions on whether Sellu’s conduct amounted to gross negligence – an assessment the court said should have been left to the jury.

    In that case, the experts directly addressed the “ultimate issue” of whether Sellu’s actions were grossly negligent. But that was for the jury to decide, not the experts, and I believe the trial judge should have intervened. A key change needed by the UK legal system, in my view, is to establish clearer guidelines to ensure experts do not exceed their role – whether in a complex financial fraud or criminal medical trial.

    Incidentally, while the judge in the Sellu trial didn’t give the jury correct direction (this was a key finding by the court of appeal that made the conviction unsafe), I don’t think it was entirely the judge’s fault. The law surrounding gross negligence manslaughter, particularly when applied to doctors unintentionally causing a patient’s death, is fraught with ambiguity. The lack of clear guidelines on what constitutes “gross” negligence, coupled with inconsistent application of the law, has sparked widespread concerns about its fairness and appropriateness in the medical context..

    Make-up of a jury

    Letby’s trial also highlights the limitations of the current jury system in such complex medical cases. The original trial was one of the longest in UK legal history, lasting ten months. The idea of jury trials is you’re tried by your peers, but if you’re a healthcare professional, you’re arguably not really being tried by your peers.

    In England, jury service is compulsory and jurors are chosen randomly from the electoral register, but there are some exemptions and deferrals available in specific circumstances, such as serious illness, disability, or full-time caregiving. Additionally, people can apply for deferral if serving would cause significant hardship due to work commitments, including shift work or conflicts with important public duties. This is particularly relevant for professionals who cannot easily take extended time away from their roles.

    This adds to the question of whether a jury, composed of 12 lay people with no specialised medical knowledge, can effectively assess intricate, often conflicting medical evidence. As Rebecca Helm highlights in her book How Juries Work (2024), while expert testimony aims to enhance jury understanding of complex evidence, jurors often lack the necessary background knowledge to fully grasp or critically assess it. This can lead to challenges in properly weighing competing expert opinions, especially in adversarial systems where experts present differing views.

    In the Letby case, the vast amount of medical evidence presented for each baby likely made it challenging for a lay jury to fully comprehend. Additionally, they may have felt intimidated or hesitant to ask the judge questions, further complicating their ability to critically engage with the evidence.

    Of course, it’s important to understand the backdrop for cases like this. I’m very aware of how overstretched, understaffed and under-resourced our hospitals are. And in the Letby case, we know that severely premature babies who are born on the cusp of viability often have a lot of comorbidities. It’s vital that jurors have a clear understanding of such specific context – which is outside the normal experience of most of us – when they come to make their decisions.

    The jury’s role is to assess expert evidence independently, yet this can be difficult without clear guidance. In the Sellu trial, the absence of a “route to verdict” document was another significant issue. While not always mandatory, such a document is often used in complex cases to help jurors separate medical facts from legal conclusions.

    Without it, the jury was left without clear guidance, increasing the risk of confusion and misapplication of the law. While the court of appeal did not say a route to verdict was strictly required, it strongly indicated that its omission contributed to an unfair trial process.

    Expert advisors for juries

    In complex criminal cases, like fraud or medical trials, where a large amount of expert evidence is presented, it can be challenging for lay jurors to fully understand and assess the evidence. Elsewhere in Europe – including in Italy, Spain and France – expert judges or advisers are often involved in complex cases to help guide the jury and clarify professional standards relevant to the case.

    Given the complexity of cases like Sellu and Letby, it’s worth considering whether jury reform is needed in the UK to ensure fair trials. A potential solution is the inclusion of an expert, such as a medico-legal advisor, who can assist juries in understanding and weighing medical evidence. This would provide clarity on complex issues and help jurors navigate the case more effectively. It would be a practical, cost-effective step that maintains the integrity of jury trials, while addressing challenges specific to complex medical manslaughter and murder cases.

    This medico-legal expert would serve solely to assist the jury in understanding complex issues presented during the trial, and would have no role in the deliberation or decision-making process. They are separate to the judge who oversees the trial, and their precise expertise would be dependent on the particular nature of the case.

    Of course, everything would have to be confidential in accordance with jury rules – their introduction would simply be to facilitate decision-making and explain complex matters to the jury.

    I believe it’s in the interests of both parties, the defendant and the prosecution, that the jury fully understands the evidence presented in court. An impartial medico-legal expert could help ensure this understanding, without influencing the case’s outcome. Their role would be beneficial for clarity, helping both parties ensure the jury comprehends the complex evidence before them.

    Further, it may also be worth considering specialist medical juries for certain complex criminal cases, such as the Letby trial, where the evidence is highly technical. The sheer volume of complex medical information presented for each baby in this case suggests that a jury without specialised medical knowledge could struggle to fully grasp the evidence.

    Appeals process

    One of the Letby appeal grounds involved an application to admit fresh evidence from Lee, challenging the conclusions reached from the 1989 study he co-authored. The court of appeal denied this, noting it did not meet the standards for fresh evidence. Refusals such as this highlights an essential aspect of public debate: the need for transparency about how the court of appeal evaluates new evidence, especially in cases that receive significant media attention.

    While it remains to be seen whether the court grants a new appeal for Letby, after the criminal cases review commission reviews the latest evidence provided by Lee’s panel, the Thirlwall inquiry has been sitting since September 2023, looking at events at the Countess of Chester Hospital on the basis that Letby is guilty. It will ultimately make recommendations about different aspects of this wider medical ecosystem, but it’s got no legal authority. Inquiries can make valuable recommendations, but they are advisory in nature and cannot enforce legal changes or compel action.

    There are numerous other examples where criminal trials have not led to the systemic-level changes that they highlight are urgently needed, beyond the individual verdict. During the trial of Hadiza Bawa-Garba – a junior doctor found guilty of manslaughter in November 2015 on the grounds of gross negligence manslaughter following the death of a six-year-old boy in her care – it was revealed that the Leicester NHS trust’s serious incident report had identified 93 failures, only six of which were attributable to the doctor herself.

    Ultimately, while holding individuals accountable is essential, we must also shift our focus towards long-term, systemic reform. Only by addressing the root causes and strengthening oversight within healthcare institutions can we ensure that tragedies are never repeated. The criminal justice system, though necessary in cases of clear criminal conduct, should be complemented by proactive, preventative measures that foster a culture of safety, accountability and transparency in healthcare.

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    Amel Alghrani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Lucy Letby case: the problems with expert evidence – https://theconversation.com/lucy-letby-case-the-problems-with-expert-evidence-249309

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –