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  • MIL-OSI USA: Child Care Assistance Is Available for South Carolinians Affected by Hurricane Helene

    Source: US Federal Emergency Management Agency

    Headline: Child Care Assistance Is Available for South Carolinians Affected by Hurricane Helene

    Child Care Assistance Is Available for South Carolinians Affected by Hurricane Helene

    South Carolinians affected by Hurricane Helene may be eligible for FEMA Child Care Assistance even if they did not have property damage.FEMA may award payment for Child Care Assistance under its Other Needs Assistance program to those with disaster-caused child care expenses following Hurricane Helene. Residents in Abbeville, Aiken, Allendale, Anderson, Bamberg, Barnwell, Beaufort, Cherokee, Chester, Edgefield, Fairfield, Greenville, Greenwood, Hampton, Jasper, Kershaw, Laurens, Lexington, McCormick, Newberry, Oconee, Orangeburg, Pickens, Richland, Saluda, Spartanburg, Union and York counties and the Catawba Indian Nation are eligible to apply.Child Care Assistance covers standard child care service fees and/or personal assistance services for children with a disability, as defined by federal law.Assistance may be available for up to eight weeks per child or household, up to a maximum of $150 per child.Eligibility CriteriaFEMA Child Care Assistance addresses disaster-related expenses for eligible households with children aged 13 and under and/or households with children with a disability up to age 21, who need assistance with activities of daily living such as eating, bathing, dressing, toileting, transferring (walking) and continence, and more.Eligibility begins on the date of the incident period for the declared disaster and continues through the end of the 18-month period of assistance unless the time is extended.Child care registration fees and health inventory fees are eligible expenses for applicants who require a new child care service provider.A registration fee is a one-time fee when registering an eligible child with an authorized child care provider.A health inventory fee is a medical office fee for processing required medical paperwork as part of the registration process.To qualify for Child Care Assistance, the general conditions must be met for FEMA Individual Assistance eligibility, and the applicant must have necessary expenses (child care facility damaged or inoperable) caused by the disaster. In addition to meeting the general conditions of eligibility as a direct result of the disaster, households must have a disaster-caused increase in financial burden for child care.The applicant’s gross household income has decreased; orThe applicant’s child care expenses have increased.Households must certify they cannot utilize child care services provided by any other source to qualify for Child Care Assistance. Households must submit documents showing a disaster-caused need for Child Care Assistance and amount of eligible expenses.Documents RequiredPre- and post-disaster gross household income documentation.Pre-disaster receipts, contract, or signed letter from the child care provider for child care expenses.Post-disaster receipts or estimates for child care fees, registration, and/or health inventory fees.A post-disaster child care provider’s license and post-disaster child care contract or agreement.Individualized Educational Plan (IEP), 504 plan, or a medical professional’s statement, if applicable, to verify disability for children up to age 21 who need assistance.A signed, written statement from the applicant.Limitations and ExclusionsIf a child is a member of multiple households, FEMA will only award Child Care Assistance to the primary custodial parent or guardian responsible for child care costs.FEMA will not help with any of the following:Fees for extra-curricular activities, educational services and additional services.Fees not related to the day-to-day child care services provided to the eligible child.Fuel expenses related to transporting the child to and from the child care provider.Medical care or services.Recreational camps or clubs.Households who did not have child care expenses pre-disaster but have incurred or will incur child care expenses because of the disaster may also be eligible, but must meet additional eligibility requirements.For additional information, contact the FEMA Helpline at 800-621-3362 or visit a Disaster Recovery Center. To find a center near you, visit fema.gov/drc.It is not necessary to go to a center to apply for FEMA assistance. Homeowners and renters in designated counties can go online to DisasterAssistance.gov, call 800-621-3362 or use the FEMA mobile app to apply. If you use a relay service, such as video relay, captioned telephone or other service, give FEMA your number for that service. For a video with American Sign Language, voiceover and open captions about how to apply for FEMA assistance, select this link.FEMA programs are accessible to survivors with disabilities and others with access and functional needs.
    kwei.nwaogu
    Wed, 11/06/2024 – 03:28

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Elon Musk’s flood of US election tweets may look chaotic. My data reveals an alarming strategy

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Graham, Associate Professor in Digital Media, Queensland University of Technology

    As voting booths in the United States close and the results of the presidential election trickle in, tech billionaire Elon Musk has been posting a flurry of tweets on his social media platform, X (formerly Twitter). So too has Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

    At first glance these tweets might appear chaotic and random. But if you take a closer look, you start to see an alarming strategy behind them – one that’s worth paying very close attention to in order to understand the inner workings of the campaign to return Trump to the White House.

    The strategy has two immediate aims. First, to overwhelm the information space and thereby manage attention. Second, to fuel the conspiracy theory that there is a coordinated campaign among Democrats, the media and big tech to steal this election.

    But it’s important to understand that the strategy on X is part of a master strategy of Trump’s campaign: a backup plan in case of a Trump loss, designed to encourage the public to participate in a grand re-wiring of reality via the meta-narrative of widespread voter fraud.

    Overwhelm the information space

    Musk has long been a prominent user of X, even before he became the owner, chief technology officer and executive chairman of the platform.

    But as I reported last week, since he endorsed Trump in July, engagement with his account has seen a sudden and anomalously large increase, raising suspicions as to whether he has tweaked the platform’s algorithms so his content reaches more people.

    This trend has continued in recent days.

    As well as posting on X, earlier today Musk also held a “freeform” live discussion on the platform about the election. It lasted for nearly one and a half hours. Around 1.3 million people tuned in. This is one of many live discussions he has hosted about the election over the past months, including notably with Trump.

    In an information war, everything is about attention management. Platforms are designed to maximise engagement and user attention above and beyond anything else. This core logic of social media is highly exploitable: who controls attention controls the narrative. In Australia, the “Vote No” campaign during last year’s referendum on Indigenous representation in government was a masterclass in attention management.

    By bombarding audiences, journalists, and other key stakeholders with a constant supply of allegations, rumours, conspiracy theories and unverifiable claims, Musk and the Trump campaign eat up all the oxygen of attention. When everyone is focussed on you and what you’re saying, they are distracted from what the other side is saying.

    And Musk and Trump want people to focus on the idea that the election is going to be stolen.

    Fuel the election fraud narrative

    From the beginning of the year, the narrative that the US presidential election is at risk of being defrauded has been steadily gaining steam. But in the past week leading up to election day, it has gone gangbusters.

    For example, starting on October 27, Trump started posting on X using the #TooBigtoRig hashtag. This refers to the idea that Trump will win the election by such a large margin that the result will be incontestable. Up to this point, the #TooBigToRig campaign was driven by Trump supporters. Now, Trump has officially joined – giving it the ultimate legitimacy.

    There has also been a dramatic spike over the last week in posts using similarly themed hashtags such as #ElectionFraud, #ElectionInterference, #VoterFraud and #StopTheSteal.

    Musk himself hasn’t been using these hashtags very much (although replies to him from other users are riddled with them). But he has been posting material that aligns with them. For example, earlier today he retweeted a post which claimed the electronic voting system in the US was insecure. Musk added: “Absolutely”.

    He has also falsely accused Google of encouraging Americans to vote for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

    And as some early results have started trickling in, Musk has posted about Trump’s odds of winning being nearly 70%.

    “The prophecy has been fulfilled,” Musk wrote.

    Participatory disinformation

    In many ways this has all the hallmarks of participatory disinformation. This concept, developed by computer scientist Kate Starbird and colleagues, explains how both ordinary people as well as politicians and influential actors become active participants in spreading false narratives.

    Unlike the top-down model of propaganda, participatory disinformation describes how grassroots activists and regular people – often with strong convictions and genuine intentions – contribute to spreading and evolving narratives that are not grounded in facts. It is a collaborative feedback loop involving both elite framing of issues and collective sensemaking and “evidence” gathering.

    Before war breaks out, there are clear signs of what’s about to unfold, even if a country publicly denies they are preparing for battle. Blood supplies, troops and weaponry are transported to the border in preparation for an invasion.

    The same thing is at play here, except the weapon is us.

    The flood of tweets by Musk and Trump, in particular, is setting the stage for a full-blown participatory disinformation campaign to undermine the election results.

    Timothy Graham receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) for his Discovery Early Career Researcher Award, ‘Combatting Coordinated Inauthentic Behaviour on Social Media’. He also receives ARC funding for the Discovery Project, ‘Understanding and combatting “Dark Political Communication”‘ (2024–2027).

    – ref. Elon Musk’s flood of US election tweets may look chaotic. My data reveals an alarming strategy – https://theconversation.com/elon-musks-flood-of-us-election-tweets-may-look-chaotic-my-data-reveals-an-alarming-strategy-243021

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Only 25% of older Queenslanders are aware of the risks heatwaves put on their health – new study

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mehak Oberai, Senior Research Assistant, Ethos Project, School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University

    Los Muertos Crew/Pexels

    Parts of Australia are currently facing extreme heat, with high temperatures set to continue over the coming days.

    Though it’s unclear exactly what the upcoming summer will bring, climate change means Australian summers are getting hotter. Even this year in August we saw temperatures around 40°C in parts of the country.

    Heatwaves aren’t just uncomfortable – they can be deadly. Health emergencies related to extreme heat place significant strain on our health-care systems, with data showing increased ambulance callouts and hospital presentations during these periods.

    Although heatwaves can affect everyone, older adults are particularly at risk. But our new research has found older Queenslanders don’t necessarily believe heat poses a risk to their health. And this affects how they respond to emergency warnings.

    Older people and the heat

    Ageing brings physiological changes, including reduced ability to regulate body temperature, which can put older people at increased risk of issues such as heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

    Heat exposure can also worsen the symptoms of existing conditions, such as heart disease, lung disease or kidney disease, which are more common in older people.

    The risk is even more pronounced for older people who live in poor quality housing, are economically disadvantaged, or are socially isolated.

    A report from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare shows that, of 2,150 hospitalisations due to extreme heat between 2019 and 2022, 37% were among people aged 65 and older (who make up around 16% of the population).

    So there’s an urgent need to prioritise the health of older Australians as the country braces for more intense and prolonged heatwaves in the future.

    When the weather is hot, older people are at greater risk of health complications.
    Kleber Cordeiro/Shutterstock

    Early warning systems

    As we’ve learned more about the risks of heatwaves, there’s been an increased focus on developing population-based early warning systems. These systems play a crucial role in encouraging people to adopt heat-protective behaviours such as staying hydrated, avoiding strenuous physical activity when temperatures are high, and wearing loose or light clothing.

    Queensland is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to heatwaves. Since 2015, heatwave warnings have been part of the state’s heatwave subplan, which sets out strategies for managing and mitigating the impacts of extreme heat events.

    These warnings involve alerts about upcoming high temperatures, and advice on staying cool. They come as notifications through the Bureau of Meterology’s weather app or via media outlets or social media. However, it’s not clear whether these warnings are reaching those most at risk.

    As part of a broader project on extreme heat and older people, we surveyed 547 Queenslanders aged 65 and over to understand their perceptions of heat risks and to determine if heatwave warnings were reaching them.

    We also wanted to know what factors influence how they receive and respond to these warnings, with a view to understanding how we can improve heatwave warnings for this group.

    What we found

    Only 25% of respondents were aware of the potential consequences of heatwaves on their health. The majority of participants (80%) perceived themselves to be at lower risk compared to others of their age group. This aligns with previous heat-health research which has similarly found older adults often don’t perceive heat as a personal risk.

    While most of the sample (87%) reported having one or more chronic health conditions, 30% were unaware having a chronic health condition increased their vulnerability to heatwaves.

    Several cultural and personal factors may explain why older people don’t think heat poses a danger to them. In Australia, heat is typically seen as a normal and even positive part of life. Heat risk messages are often less urgent than warnings for other natural disasters.

    Previous research has also shown older people tend not to think heat poses a risk to their health.
    Miguel AF/Shutterstock

    We also found nearly half of respondents had not heard a heatwave warning. Of those who had, roughly half took actions to keep themselves cool.

    What stood out from our analysis was that participants’ awareness and actions in response to heatwave warnings were significantly influenced by their knowledge and perceptions of heat risks. Factors such as age, gender and education were not so important.

    Respondents who believed they were at risk were almost twice as likely to hear the warnings, and 3.6 times more likely to take heat protective actions.

    This aligns with other research that highlights the correlation between heat-health risk perception and the efficacy of heatwave warnings.

    One limitation of our research is that we conducted the survey in 2022 during and following a La Nina period, where temperatures are usually lower. So there may have been fewer heatwave warnings throughout the season, potentially reducing participants’ perceptions of heat health risks.

    What needs to change?

    With another hot summer likely ahead, we need to rethink how we communicate about heatwaves. These are more than just hot days. We need to recognise heatwaves as a serious health risk, especially for older people, and effectively communicate that risk to the public.

    This might include using primary health-care professionals such as GPs, nurses and pharmacists to share heat-health information with older patients and their family members, or developing personalised heat action plans for the summer period.

    Text message alerts from the Bureau of Meteorology, along with app notifications, could be a good idea considering some older adults may not have a smartphone or be open to using apps.

    To improve heatwave communication, we also need to explore the barriers and facilitators to heat protective behaviours. This includes considering structural factors (such as housing design), environmental factors (for example, access to shade and cool refuges), individual factors (such as financial constraints or health conditions) and social factors (such as access to family and community support).

    Strengthening communication around heatwaves and health will not only protect individual wellbeing but enhance community resilience as extreme heat continues to affect our lives.

    Mehak Oberai is a Senior Research Assistant working on Ethos project and is also a member of the AAG (Australian Association of Gerontology) Student & Early Career Working Group.

    Ella Jackman is a PhD Candidate at Griffith University and a Research Assistant for the Queensland Heat Health Community of Practice (QHHCoP) and the Ethos Project.

    Shannon Rutherford co-leads the Climate Action Beacon Griffith University funded, Queensland Heat Health Community of Practice and receives funding from Wellcome and NEMA. She is an affiliate member of the HEAL network

    Steven Baker and Zhiwei Xu do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Only 25% of older Queenslanders are aware of the risks heatwaves put on their health – new study – https://theconversation.com/only-25-of-older-queenslanders-are-aware-of-the-risks-heatwaves-put-on-their-health-new-study-238875

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Sobyanin: The territories of the city’s MCD stations are being improved according to a single standard

    Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Moscow Government – Government of Moscow –

    A unified standard for accessibility of city railway stations on the Moscow Central Diameters (MCD) is being introduced in the capital. Sergei Sobyanin spoke about this in his blog.

    “Any trip on the metro or MCD begins with leaving the house. A good pedestrian path. A fast bus route with stops as close to the entrance as possible. Convenient parking or a drop-off point for taxi and personal car passengers. Bright street lighting, a cozy little square or park next to the station, where you can wait for your wife or daughter late at night — these “little things” make up the impression of the trip. And they directly affect the desire of city residents to use public transport. Perhaps this has already been forgotten, but in 2011 we began our transport program by cleaning up and improving the area around the city’s main train stations and metro stations,” the Moscow Mayor wrote.

    After the opening of the MCD, work began to make the route from residential areas to Moscow’s ground-level metro stations comfortable and safe. It is being carried out according to a single city standard, which provides for the reorganization of public transport routes, improvement of pedestrian accessibility, and the creation of a high-quality urban environment in the immediate vicinity of MCD stations.

    An example of a station where the new standard has already been implemented is Sanino MCD-4 in TiNAO.

    “Until recently, the only way to get to the city station was on foot along a forest path. Ground transportation did not stop near the station at all. Today, you can get to the Moscow city station Sanino MCD-4 on foot, by car or by public transport. A turning circle has been created for buses, modern waiting pavilions have been installed at the entrance to the station, and new routes have been organized. Pedestrian crossings are equipped with contrasting lighting,” said Sergei Sobyanin.

    Not far from Sanino there is another Moscow city railway station – Kokoshkino. To get to it by the shortest route, residents of the new quarters used popular paths. Inconveniently located stops, lack of parking – all this also significantly complicated daily trips.

    Thanks to the extension of the road and the well-thought-out planning of the territory, a new direct pedestrian and car route was created. Public transport stops were placed 10 meters from the entrance to the city station. A quick drop-off zone for taxis and private cars was organized. In addition, intercepting parking lots were equipped.

    Wide sidewalks with safe crossings across the roadway now lead to residential areas. A small green park has been created near residential buildings.

    Among the unique projects implemented is Poklonnaya MCD-4. As a result, the new city station became a link between the Ramenki and Dorogomilovo districts.

    For this purpose, a pedestrian bridge was built across the railway tracks and stairways leading to General Dorokhov Avenue, General Yermolov Street and the nature reserve in the Setun River valley.

    Now residents of Pudovkina Street and 2nd Mosfilmovsky Lane, who just a few years ago had only one metro station, Kievskaya, which they had to get to by bus for about half an hour, can use the new Poklonnaya station of the MCD-4 and Park Pobedy of the Solntsevskaya and Arbatsko-Pokrovskaya metro lines.

    Sergei Sobyanin added that work is currently underway to improve accessibility at several more stations: Shcherbinka MCD-2, Kosina MCD-3, as well as Solnechnaya, Kuskova, Begovaya MCD-4. The first stage of work has been completed near the Serp i Molot station of the fourth Moscow Central Diameter. In 2025, improvements there will continue as part of the second stage.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    https://vvv.mos.ru/major/themes/11982050/

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: LCQ2: Clansmen Culture Promotion Scheme

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

    LCQ2: Clansmen Culture Promotion Scheme
    LCQ2: Clansmen Culture Promotion Scheme
    ***************************************

         Following is a question by the Hon Jimmy Ng and a reply by the Secretary for Home and Youth Affairs, Miss Alice Mak, in the Legislative Council today (November 6): Question:      The Government has earlier on launched a three-year “Clansmen Culture Promotion Scheme” (the Scheme), under which a total funding of $30‍ million has been earmarked for application by clansmen associations to organise activities promoting hometown culture. It has been reported that the Scheme has received overwhelming responses, and that the Home Affairs Department received 213 applications from 110 clansmen associations this year, of which 39 were approved with funding of about $10 million. In this connection, will the Government inform this Council: (1) of the respective themes of the funded hometown cultural activities; whether it has estimated the number of participants in such activities; if so, of the details; (2) whether it will expand the scope of the subsidy under the Scheme to assist clansmen associations in organizing more activities of different types, so as to promote the vast and profound Chinese culture and enhance public understanding of the latest developments in various provinces and municipalities of the motherland; and (3) whether it will extend the implementation period of the Scheme or even regularise it; whether it will introduce more schemes to help promote clansmen culture; if so, of the details; if not, the reasons for that? Reply:President,      Clansmen associations have a long history in Hong Kong, most of which were established by their ancestors who came to Hong Kong in the early days for development and then settled in, with a view to uniting and serving their fellow clansmen as well as promoting solidarity and mutual support amongst them. The associations play a bridging role between their fellow clansmen and hometowns. They have brought the culture of their hometowns to Hong Kong, enabling different hometown cultures and customs to converge here and make Hong Kong unique.      Being steadfast patriots supporting the country and Hong Kong, clansmen associations have effectively forged cohesion among clansmen who love the country, Hong Kong and their hometowns through their vast social networks and unique geographical backgrounds. They provide resolute support for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) Government in implementing “one country, two systems”, promoting the development of Hong Kong, and fostering social harmony and stability. They are reliable and staunch partners of the HKSAR Government and a constructive force driving Hong Kong’s development.      Clansmen associations have been supporting the work of the HKSAR Government in many areas. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, clansmen associations volunteered to donate supplies and mobilise fellow clansmen to collaborate with the Government in fighting the epidemic. On the improvement of the electoral system of Hong Kong, clansmen associations’ active support and participation helped ensure that the principle of “patriots administering Hong Kong” was fully implemented.  Clansmen associations also strongly supported the improving of district governance, the election of District Councils and the formation of Care Teams.      In terms of activities, clansmen associations have been organising various clansmen cultural promotion, caring and exchange programmes to promote exchanges and co-operation between Hong Kong and the Mainland in different aspects, with a view to enhancing mutual communication and deepening the friendship between the people as well as fostering the inheritance of fine traditional Chinese culture.      To deepen the public’s understanding of and sense of belonging to their hometowns, thereby fostering the spirit of loving the motherland, Hong Kong and their hometowns; as well as to recognise and strengthen the longstanding efforts of patriotic clansmen associations, the Chief Executive announced in his 2023 Policy Address the launch of the “Clansmen Culture Promotion Scheme” (the Scheme) for a period of three years. In the three consecutive financial years starting from 2024-25, an annual provision of $10 million (i.e. totalling $30 million) is earmarked for application by clansmen associations to subsidise their organisation of activities to promote and preserve hometown culture, unite clansmen in Hong Kong and facilitate exchanges between Hong Kong and the Mainland.      The Home Affairs Department (HAD) began accepting funding applications for the 2024-25 financial year under the Scheme in April this year. Within a one-month application period, a total of 213 applications from 110 clansmen associations were received. By the end of May, the HAD completed the vetting process and approved 39 applications, taking into consideration factors such as the reputation and experience of the applying organisations, as well as the content of their activities and plans. The total amount of subsidy granted is about $10 million.      In response to the questions raised by the Hon Jimmy Ng, the replies are as follows: (1) A wide variety of projects were approved in the first year of the Scheme, which included activities for promoting hometown culture and heritage (e.g. hometown markets, cultural festivals), uniting fellow clansmen in Hong Kong (e.g. home visits, organising volunteer work) and promoting exchanges between Hong Kong and the Mainland (e.g. parent-child heritage tours, youth exchange programmes). From early June to end-October 2024, a total of 20 approved projects were completed, with over 220 000 people participated.      For specific events, for example, the “Clansmen Associations Hometown Market Carnival” jointly organised by 28 clansmen associations at Victoria Park for five days in early June attracted approximately 200 000 visitors. The “Min-Kong Youth Maritime Silk Road Cultural Exchange Tour” and the “Hong Kong-Macao Youth Zhejiang Tour” organised by the Hong Kong Federation of Fujian Associations and the United Zhejiang Residents Associations respectively in July were participated by a total of about 1 000 young people to promote youth exchange between Hong Kong and the Mainland. The Federation of HK Guangxi Community Organisations and the Hong Kong Federation of Hainan Community Organisations held the “Cultural Celebration for National Day” and the “Hainan and Kowloon City Brilliant Night” carnivals in September respectively, engaging over 10 000 participants in promoting hometown culture. In September and October, the Federation of Hong Kong Beijing Organisations organised the “Thank You for Being There – Hand in Hand to Warm Hearts” event, where volunteer teams formed by its fellow clansmen visited grassroots families of about 1 000 people. From September to December, the Federation of Hong Kong Guangdong Community Organisations is conducting the “Guangdong Intangible Cultural Heritage in Schools” programme to host cultural workshops in various primary and secondary schools. It is expected that nearly 1 000 students and parents will be engaged. (2) The scope of projects subsidised under the Scheme is wide. Any locally registered clansmen associations with good reputation and track record; which have all along been committed to promoting hometown culture and fostering exchanges between Hong Kong and hometowns in order to promote the spirit of loving the motherland, Hong Kong and hometowns; and with experience in organising relevant activities, are eligible to apply for subsidy under the Scheme. The subsidy can be used for funding various types of relevant activities such as those for promoting and preserving hometown culture, uniting clansmen in Hong Kong and facilitating exchanges between Hong Kong and the Mainland. There is no restriction on the form of the activities, as long as they are non-profit-making in nature and in line with the objectives of the Scheme.      Apart from the Scheme, the HAD and the 18 District Offices have been collaborating with clansmen associations and various district organisations from time to time to foster community building, while promoting Chinese culture and enhancing public understanding of the country. For example, the HAD co-organised with 28 provincial clansmen associations the “Bazaar Carnival in celebration of the 75th Anniversary of the Founding of the People’s Republic of China” (the Bazaar) from October 25 to 29 at Sha Tin Park. It provided a total of 75 market stalls offering a wide variety of local snacks, specialties and traditional crafts, showcasing the unique culinary and cultural traditions of different provinces and cities. The Bazaar also staged diverse cultural performances such as traditional ethnic dances, acrobatics, folk songs, as well as free screenings of patriotic-themed movies and cultural introductions of various provinces, enabling the public to experience the diverse and colourful Chinese culture from all corners of the country. The five-day Bazaar attracted about 180 000 visitors, with the value of total sales estimated to be more than $4.6 million, highlighting the Government’s close collaboration with clansmen associations to further promote patriotic sentiments and love for Hong Kong in the community.      Besides, clansmen associations also apply for funding support through the on-going Community Involvement Programme implemented by the HAD to organise different projects such as festivals with local characteristics, hometown cultural carnivals and traditional cultural performances to promote district harmony. Some clansmen associations also actively participate in the “Funding Scheme for Youth Exchange in the Mainland” implemented by the Home and Youth Affairs Bureau to apply for funding to organise youth exchange tours to the Mainland, supporting young people to broaden their horizons, deepen their understanding of the country and seize the national development opportunities. (3) In the first quarter of 2025, funding application under the Scheme for the financial year 2025-26 will be launched, with the focus on uniting clansmen in Hong Kong. The HAD will provide funding support for clansmen associations to organise various activities aiming at promoting patriotic education and fostering the spirit of loving the country, Hong Kong and the hometowns. The HAD will timely review the effectiveness and arrangements of the Scheme before the completion of the three-year programme, and will continue to maintain close contact and collaboration with clansmen associations. They have our support in organising all sorts of activities related to hometown culture promotion and patriotic education, and in collaborating with the HKSAR Government to promote the mainstream values of loving the motherland and Hong Kong that are in line with the core principles of “one country, two systems”.     Thank you, President.

     
    Ends/Wednesday, November 6, 2024Issued at HKT 13:28

    NNNN

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election results: Trump takes first swing state of North Carolina

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

    This is a rolling guide to articles and audio published by The Conversation in the immediate run-up to and aftermath of the election, with some explainers about the process. This page is updated from the top, so older references are moved down the page.

    Good morning world. The United States has made its choice. And, as of 5am Donald Trump and the Republican Party will be the happier contenders, having so far won the most electoral college votes and the first swing state of North Carolina, as well as regaining control of the Senate.

    It’s been a turbulent four months since outgoing president Joe Biden announced he was terminating his bid for a second term and the battlelines between the two candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were drawn. Soon we will know who will lead the US for the next four years.

    From here, with the help of some of the sharpest analysts of US politics, we’ll keep you updated and informed as the situation develops.

    To get an idea of the scale of the task of counting votes, take a look at the below map of the US colour-coded by poll closing times. How long the count could take is anyone’s guess at this stage. Each state has its own rules.

    Ahead of the polls closing Richard Hargy, an expert in US politics from Queen’s University Belfast, wrote a guide to the process, when the votes are counted and when we might start to see results.



    Read more:
    US election: what time do the polls close and when will the results be known? An expert explains

    Delays are baked into the process, such as Pennsylvania, which doesn’t allow votes cast before election day or ballots posted in to be counted until polls close, which was at 8pm (1am GMT).

    So we’ll just have to be patient. In the mean time, you can also read Hargy’s explainer on the “electoral college” system, which can mean that the candidate with the most votes may not win the presidency.



    Read more:
    US election: how does the electoral college voting system work?

    Early voting and what it might mean

    Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at University College Dublin, believes that in a cliffhanger election, a clue to the outcome may be in the size of turnout. More than 80 million Americans voted early – around half of the total turnout in 2020 and around one-third of the eligible electorate.

    The 80 million figure takes on added significance with the recognition that it is not that distant from the 104 million who participated early in the “pandemic” election four years ago. And that 2020 ballot, with 158.4 million votes and almost 67% participation, was the largest turnout since 1900.

    Who does that favour? Probably Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. Trumpists will turn out for their man come hell or high water. The large question mark has been whether potential Harris voters would sit on their hands, whether from lack of enthusiasm or dissatisfaction on issues such as Israel’s open-ended war on Gaza.

    Any prediction in this election is a risk. But it might be worth setting a marker: if turnout matches or exceeds the record set in 2020, Kamala Harris could be on the way to the White House.

    Tense moment for the US

    During the campaign there have been two assassination attempts on former president Trump as well as arson attacks on ballot boxes and ballots damaged. In Arizona the Democratic party was forced to close one of its offices after it had been shot at three times.

    Dafydd Townley, a fellow in international security at Portsmouth University, believes that there could be a reluctance to accept the result and that this could result in further disturbances. He has written about how much violence there has been during this campaign.



    Read more:
    US election: officials are issued with panic buttons as attacks on ballot boxes continue

    Dafyyd Townley comments on post-election violence.

    How race has played into the campaign

    Rhianna Garrett, PhD researcher and global coordinator of the critical mixed race studies executive board at Loughborough University, says that Trump’s campaign has been “littered with attempts to weaponise” the multiracial heritage of his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris.

    Much of this has been a dog-whistle attempt to stir up his own base, partly with fairly blatant appeals to latent feelings of racism, but also as a tool to position Harris as deceiving and untrustworthy by apparently blurring and shifting her own background.

    In August, not long after Harris took over the Democrat ticket from Biden, Trump appeared at the National Association of Black Journalists conference when he wrongfully claimed that Harris was changing her identity, stating: “I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black, and now she wants to be known as Black, So I don’t know. Is she Indian or is she Black?”.

    For her part, Harris’s campaign has also used her multiracial heritage to further their political agendas. On the White House website, she is described as “the first woman, the first Black American, and the first South Asian American” to hold a vice-presidential position, which has effectively attempted to position her as a winner. Harris herself has also foregrounded “race” on her campaign website. In attempt to attack Trump’s campaign, she strategically aims to promote Black and Latino men specifically, as well as women’s rights. These are key voter groups she has aimed to mobilise through identity politics.

    Trump and winning male voters

    Donald Trump widened his appeal to male voters in this election, with polling indicating that he was picking up more support from Black and Latino men, as well as more young men more widely.

    One reason for this may be that in 2024 young men are more conservative than any other group in the US. Another reason why gender has become a divisive issue is the overturning of Roe v Wade, the legal case that gave American women abortion rights.

    Read more on the gender divide in this article from Natasha Lindstaedt, a professor of government at Essex University.



    Read more:
    US election: why more men and fewer white women say they will vote for Trump

    A free speech campaign?

    Julie Posetti, professor of journalism at City St George’s, University of London, and global director of research at the International Center for Journalists, recently conducted a survey of more than 1,000 Americans on their attitudes to the press.

    Breaking down the results, they were able to build a picture of what people in the US think of targeting journalists for criticism and even abuse. You can read all about the study here.



    Read more:
    New survey finds an alarming tolerance for attacks on the press in the US – particularly among white, Republican men

    – ref. US election results: Trump takes first swing state of North Carolina – https://theconversation.com/us-election-results-trump-takes-first-swing-state-of-north-carolina-241711

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Extreme weather has already cost vulnerable island nations US$141 billion – and 38% is attributable to climate change

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Emily Wilkinson, Principal Research Fellow, ODI

    Multiverse / shutterstock

    Two years ago, when the curtain fell on the COP27 summit in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, developing nations on the frontline of climate change had something meaningful to celebrate.

    The creation of a new fund for responding to loss and damage was agreed after a hard-fought diplomatic effort, spearheaded by a group of small island developing states (sometimes known as the Sids). The fund would provide much needed support for climate-vulnerable nations faced with a spiralling human and financial toll from sea-level rise, extreme temperatures, droughts, wildfires, and intensifying floods and storms.

    Yet two years on, the world’s wealthiest nations – also the largest carbon emitters – are still dragging their feet. They’ve not followed up their pledges with anywhere near the finance required.

    Some nations, particularly the 39 Sids, which include places like Barbados, Grenada, Fiji and Vanuatu, are uniquely vulnerable to climate change and are already paying the price.

    Sky-high ocean temperatures created the conditions for Hurricane Beryl to develop in July this year, as the earliest-forming Category 5 hurricane on record in the Caribbean. As oceans warm up, climate science tells us that this rapid intensification is becoming more common.

    Fijians run for shelter as a cyclone approaches.
    ChameleonsEye / shutterstock

    The island nation of Fiji, best known as a tropical paradise, has experienced a frightening series of storms over recent years, linked to climate change. Cyclone Winston in 2016, one of the most intense on record, caused widespread flooding and lead to the loss of 44 lives.

    This episode reduced Fiji’s GDP growth by 1.4 percentage points. According to the Asian Development Bank, ongoing losses from climate change could reach 4% of Fiji’s annual GDP by 2100, as higher temperatures and more extreme weather hold back growth.

    This isn’t an isolated problem. Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have long battered small islands, but what is new is how often the most extreme storms and floods are happening, as well as our improved ability to measure their economic effects.

    Direct and indirect impacts

    Our latest research looked at extreme weather events affecting 35 small island developing nations. We first collected information about the direct consequences of these extreme weather events: the damaged homes, the injured people, and the bridges that must be rebuilt.

    We then looked at how these events have affected GDP growth and public finances. These changes are not felt immediately, but rather as the economy stalls, tourism dries up, and expensive recovery plans inhibit spending in other areas.

    In all, from 2000 to 2020, these direct and indirect impacts may have cost small island states a total of US$141 billion. That works out to around US$2,000 per person on average, although this figure underplays just how bad things can get in some places. Hurricane Maria in 2017 caused damage to the Caribbean island of Dominica worth more than double its entire GDP. That amounted to around US$20,000 per person, overnight. Almost a decade later, the country is still struggling with one of the largest debt burdens on earth at over 150% of GDP.

    Dominica’s lush forests were badly damaged by Hurricane Maria.
    Derek D Galon / shutterstock

    Of these huge aggregate losses across all the small island development states, around 38% are attributable to climate change. That’s according to calculations we made based on “extreme event attribution” studies, which estimate the degree to which greenhouse gas emissions influenced extreme weather events.

    What is clear is that small island economies are among the worst affected by severe weather. These island states have three to five times more climate-related loss and damage than other states, as a percentage of government revenues. That’s true even for wealthier small island states, like the Bahamas and Barbados, where loss and damage is four times greater than other high-income countries. For all small island nations, the economic impacts will increase, with “attributable” losses from extreme weather reaching US$75 billion by 2050 if global temperatures hit 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

    Our research helps us to see how far short the richer nations driving climate change are falling in their efforts to both curb emissions and to compensate the nations harmed by their failure to prevent climate change.

    Developed countries need to pay up

    One of the key discussions at the forthcoming COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, will be the “new collective quantified goal”. This is the technical name to describe how much money wealthy countries will need to contribute to help vulnerable nations to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

    That overall goal must also include a target to finance small islands and other vulnerable countries, with billions more needed per year in the new loss and damage fund. Given the extent of actual and likely losses, nothing less than ambition on the scale of a “modern Marshall Plan” for these states will do.

    In addition to this extra financing, the fund will need to work effectively to support the most climate vulnerable nations and populations when severe weather occurs. This can be done in a few ways.

    The fund could create a budget support mechanism that can help small island states and other vulnerable countries deal with loss of income and the negative effects on growth. It could make sure loss and damage funds can be released quickly, and ensure support is channelled to those who need it the most. It could also make more concessional finance available for recovery, especially for the most adversely affected sectors like agriculture and tourism.

    The world has a troubling history of missing self-imposed targets on climate finance and emissions reduction. But the stakes are ever higher now, and any target for loss and damage finance will need to be sufficient to deal with the challenges posed already by climate change, and in the years to come.

    Emily Wilkinson receives funding from the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office

    Ilan Noy, Matt Bishop, and Vikrant Panwar do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Extreme weather has already cost vulnerable island nations US$141 billion – and 38% is attributable to climate change – https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-has-already-cost-vulnerable-island-nations-us-141-billion-and-38-is-attributable-to-climate-change-242640

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI: CREDIT AGRICOLE SA : Crédit Agricole Immobilier announces the closing of the acquisition of Nexity Property Management and becomes the leader of Property Management in France

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    Press release

    Montrouge, 6 November 2024

    Crédit Agricole Immobilier announces the closing of the acquisition
    of Nexity Property Management
    and becomes the leader of Property Management in France

    Crédit Agricole Immobilier is pleased to announce that it has completed the acquisition of Nexity Property Management, a Nexity subsidiary specialised in commercial and residential asset management. With this transaction, announced on 25 July 2024, Crédit Agricole Immobilier becomes the leader in institutional property management, in France 1.

    The acquisition of Nexity Property Management brings additional expertise to Crédit Agricole Immobilier, ranging from advisory services to accounting and technical rental management, supervision of works, shopping malls management etc.

    In addition, Nexity Property Management’s powerful network of over 30 branches and offices across France, comes as an addition to strengthens Crédit Agricole Immobilier’s own presence. It supports Crédit Agricole Immobilier in addressing the needs of its institutional customers, including the customers of the Regional Banks and subsidiaries of the Crédit Agricole Group. This increased local footprint, will allow CAI to bring their expertise to clients’ investment projects, in line with the Universal Customer-focused Banking Model approach.

    This new transaction, taking place 18 months after the acquisition of Sudeco, a long-standing Property Management player and commercial property specialist, has established Crédit Agricole Immobilier as the market leader with the most comprehensive range of services for institutional customers across all asset categories, from residential to commercial.
    Overall, Crédit Agricole Immobilier now manages more than 11,000 assets.

    For Nexity, this transaction is fully aligned with the group’s roadmap, specifically with the refocusing strategy launched in 2023.

    This transaction has no significant impact on Crédit Agricole S.A.’s CET1 ratio and should generate a return on investment that is in line with Crédit Agricole’s policy.

    “We are so delighted and proud to welcome the Nexity Property Management teams to Crédit Agricole Immobilier. This acquisition represents a decisive step forward in our strategy of becoming the leader of property management in France. We are deepening our expertise in all areas of property management and strengthening our presence across France. By joining forces, we are ready to take on new challenges. This is the perfect expression of our 2025 strategic plan, as well as the mid-term plan of Crédit Agricole Group: it will allow us to support our clients more extensively on strategic social and environmental issues, such as reducing the carbon footprint of their property assets.”

    Valérie Wanquet, Chief Executive Officer of Crédit Agricole Immobilier

    “I am delighted that we have completed this transaction with the Crédit Agricole Group, a long-term strategic partner of the Nexity group, which is fully in line with our efforts to refocus our activities, which we began at the end of 2023. I would like to thank all Nexity Property Management teams and I wish them every success with their new shareholder. We are certain that Crédit Agricole Immobilier will be able to maintain the quality of its services and enhance its market share.”

    Jean-Claude Bassien, Deputy Chief Executive Officer of Nexity

    ABOUT CRÉDIT AGRICOLE IMMOBILIER
    A subsidiary of the Crédit Agricole Group, Crédit Agricole Immobilier supports its individual, corporate and public authority customers with real estate projects throughout France while upholding three fundamental principles: sustainability and performance of buildings, respect for the environment and decarbonisation, and social cohesion and inclusion.
    As a partner in the most ambitious property development projects, we work with our customers to create value throughout their projects: transaction, letting, rental management, co-ownership associations, property strategy, residential and commercial development, refurbishment, renovation, development of spaces, property management and operation.
    To find out more, visit: www.ca-immobilier.fr/nous-connaitre

    CRÉDIT AGRICOLE IMMOBILIER PRESS CONTACT
    Vanessa Feugères – +33 (0)7 86 84 19 15 – vanessa.feugeres@ca-immobilier.fr

    NEXITY, LIFE TOGETHER
    With revenues of €4.3 billion in 2023, Nexity, the leading global real estate operator, is present all over France and operates in all areas of development and services. Our strategy as leading global real estate operator allows us to meet all our clients’ needs, whether they are individuals, corporates, institutions or authorities. Our raison d’être ‘life together’ reflects our commitment to create sustainable spaces, neighbourhoods and towns for them, that help them to build and rebuild connections. For the sixth consecutive year, Nexity was ranked the top contracting authority by Association pour le développement du Bâtiment Bas Carbone (BBCA – a French low-carbon building association), is a member of the Bloomberg Gender Equality Index, Best Workplaces 2021 and was certified a Great Place to Work® in September 2022.
    Nexity is listed on Service de Règlement Différé (SRD – Deferred Settlement Service), in Compartment A of Euronext and on the SBF 120.

    NEXITY PRESS CONTACTS
    Cyril Rizk – Media Relations Manager / +33(0)6 73 49 72 61 – presse@nexity.fr
    Emma Durel – Media Relations Officer / +33 (0)6 99 14 09 28 – presse@nexity.fr
    Anne-Sophie Lanaute – Head of Investor Relations and Financial Communications / +33 (0)6 58 17 24 22 – investorrelations@nexity.fr

    1 In terms of revenues, source: Xerfi.

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    The MIL Network –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The extreme floods which devastated Spain are hitting more often. Is Australia ready for the next one?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Conrad Wasko, ARC DECRA Fellow in Hydrology, University of Sydney

    Spain is still reeling from recent floods in the Valencia region. In some areas, a year’s worth of rain fell in a single day. Sudden torrents raced through towns and cities. Over 200 people are dead. Rapid analysis suggests daily rainfall extremes in this region and season have become twice as common over the last 75 years and become 12% more intense.

    The World Meteorological Organisation has pointed out that climate change is steadily increasing the risk of extreme floods like these. Warmer air can hold more water vapour, about 7% more per degree Celsius of warming. More moisture generally leads to more intense rainfall, and therefore more extreme floods.

    The physics of how temperature influences the atmosphere’s capacity to hold moisture has been known for close to 200 years. But we’ve learned something worrying more recently. When water vapour condenses to form rain droplets, it releases heat which can fuel stronger convection and boost updrafts of air currents in storms. This means the intensity of extreme rainfall could increase not just 7% per degree of warming, but over twice that rate.

    Last week, CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology released their biennial report on the State of the Climate, which found “heavy short-term rainfall events are becoming more intense”. Australia, the report states, has already warmed 1.5°C since national records began in 1910. In recent years, extreme rains have triggered devastating floods in New South Wales and Queensland.

    The question now is – are we prepared for these more damaging floods? This year, Australia updated the climate change section of Australia’s flood design guidance. But while this will help ensure that future infrastructure is better able to weather extreme floods, our current bridges, roads and stormwater drains have not been built to weather these increases in extreme rainfall. Similarly, our flood planning levels – used to determine where houses, offices, hospitals and so forth can be built – have generally not factored in the reality of the threat.

    More floods and more extreme

    Many of us would have learned about the water cycle in school. Water evaporates from seas and lakes before falling as rain and filling lakes and rivers, which eventually makes it back to the sea.

    Unfortunately, climate change is making this cycle more intense, as detailed in a recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Rain is more likely to fall in intense short-duration bursts which are more likely to trigger floods.

    This year alone, we have seen disastrous and deadly floods from extreme storms across the Americas, Asia and Europe. Scientific analysis has showed these floods were more severe due to human-caused climate change.

    Australia is not immune. The devastating northern New South Wales floods of 2022 took 24 lives and ravaged towns such as Lismore. These floods are the most expensive natural disaster to date in Australia, costing A$5.65 billion in damages.

    How do you prepare for worse floods?

    When urban planners set flood planning levels, or engineers begin designing a new bridge or rail line, they have to take floods into account. To do so, they will inevitably reach for the local bible, Australia’s flood design guidance.

    Before 2024, this document allowed for a 5% increase in rainfall intensity per degree of global warming, and generally applied it only to infrastructure intended for a very long lifespan. This clashed with most scientific studies on the topic both globally and in Australia, which showed much greater increases, and that these increases are already being witnessed.

    To provide better flood guidance, we and our colleagues undertook a comprehensive review of over 300 scientific papers covering climate change in Australia and extreme rainfall.

    The review proved we had been underestimating the threat of extreme rains and subsequent floods. Rain events over a 24-hour period leading to flooding are likely to increase at 8% per degree of warming, not 5%. Hourly rainfall extremes are likely increasing even faster, at 15% per degree.

    Worse, these are just the central estimates. The wide range of plausible values suggests some rain events could eclipse these. For daily or longer extreme rains, the range is 2–15%. For hourly or shorter periods, that figure is 7–28% for hourly or shorter duration.

    Over the month of February in 2022, the Lismore region had about 600–800 mm of rain – much more than a normal February, which might see closer to 150 mm on average. These floods took place with just 1.1°C of warming since the pre-industrial period. On our current path, it’s possible the world could warm another 1.5°C or more by the end of this century. If this happens, these rainfall totals could be substantially higher and more likely to cause even worse flood impacts.

    These new figures have now been included in the August update of Australia’s flood design guidance. This is good news. It means future decisions on infrastructure and planning can now be well informed by the latest science on how climate change influences flood risk.

    Over time, this will ensure essential infrastructure can be built to endure worse floods. It will affect the design and construction of everything from local stormwater drains to levees, bridges, culverts and dam spillways.

    Preparing for extreme floods is complex. Pictured: water spilling out from a manhole during Spain’s floods.
    Fernando Astasio Avila/Shutterstock

    Local councils can use it to set the height of floor levels for property development. State and federal decision-makers can use it in planning for responses to flood emergencies.

    Does it mean we can avoid disastrous floods like those in Spain and Lismore? Yes and no. We now have the knowledge and tools to adapt to the increased risk levels already arriving. Yet implementing this will be challenging. In many cases, it will require retrofitting or redesigning existing infrastructure to withstand more intense flooding.

    Climate change is no longer something we can file under “problem for the future”. It’s here already. The flood risks we face today are already substantially worse than 25 years ago, and will continue to worsen. We must accelerate how we plan for extreme, rapid rainfall creating catastrophic floods like those in Spain.

    Conrad Wasko receives funding from The University of Sydney and the Australian Research Council. Conrad has previously received funding from the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.

    Andrew Dowdy receives funding from University of Melbourne, including through the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and the Melbourne Energy Institute.

    Seth Westra is a Professor of Hydrology and Climate Risk at the University of Adelaide, Director of Research for the One Basin Cooperative Research Centre, and Chair of the Systems Cooperative. Seth receives funding from state and federal governments support decision making under hydrological or climatic uncertainty.

    – ref. The extreme floods which devastated Spain are hitting more often. Is Australia ready for the next one? – https://theconversation.com/the-extreme-floods-which-devastated-spain-are-hitting-more-often-is-australia-ready-for-the-next-one-242686

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI: Aktia Bank Plc’s Interim Report January–September 2024: Stable quarterly result and positive trend in asset management

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    Aktia Bank Plc
    Stock Exchange Release
    6 November 2024 at 8.00 a.m.

    Aktia Bank Plc’s Interim Report January–September 2024: Stable quarterly result and positive trend in asset management

    The quarter in short

    • Comparable operating profit: EUR 31.5 million, somewhat higher than last year (31.0).
    • Comparable cost/income ratio: 0.56 (0.55).
    • Comparable return on equity (ROE): 15.0 (15.8)%; the difference is mainly due to a higher average equity.
    • Net commission income: 3% higher than last year thanks to higher net income from funds and card operations.
    • Assets under management: Increased in the quarter, driven by positive net subscriptions and favourable market development.
    • Net interest income: 7% lower than last year due to the impact of non-standard interest terms for certain corporate accounts and falling interest rates.
    • Net income from life insurance: Strong development due to good sales, low loss ratio and good investment performance.
    • Comparable operating expenses: Good cost control despite continued investments in IT.
    • Credit losses: Provisions decreased compared to last year.
    • The share of assets under management classified as sustainable under Article 8/9 increased to 98.1% from 95.3% last year.

    Outlook 2024 (unchanged)

    Aktia’s comparable operating profit for 2024 is expected to be higher than the EUR 104.8 million reported for 2023.

    The outlook has been prepared based on the following expectations:

    • Despite market uncertainty and a probable decline in interest rates, the net interest income is expected to be higher than in 2023.
    • Net commission income is expected to be somewhat higher than in 2023, provided that the market conditions are favourable.
    • The life insurance business is expected to develop steadily. However, the result may be affected by changes in market values.
    • Total operating expenses are expected to remain on approximately the same level as in 2023, given the absence of stability contribution offset by higher expected IT expenses.
    • Impairments and provisions for credit losses are expected to increase slightly compared to the 2023 level, given the current market situation.

    Aleksi Lehtonen, CEO:

    I have said in various contexts that only a company with thriving employees can have genuinely satisfied customers. During the year, we have seen the results of Aktia’s employee surveys moving in the right direction. Therefore, it is not surprising – but all the more pleasing – that we have also seen a significant improvement in customer satisfaction.

    The very comprehensive EPSI Rating study, published in the third quarter, shows how our customer satisfaction develops and where we stand compared to the sector. Aktia has improved significantly in all the sub-areas covered by the EPSI study, and our overall result is now very close to the “very satisfied” threshold. This year, Aktia was the bank improving the most in the ranking. The study shows that our customers to a large extent are also likely to recommend Aktia.

    I am happy and grateful for this feedback and especially for the fact that our customers explicitly feel appreciated and cared for. This is in line with the direct feedback I have received when attending customer meetings: Aktia’s customers appreciate personal service and there exists a strong trust. My message regarding both employee and customer satisfaction is the same: we are moving in the right direction, but there is still work to be done. We can become even better, and we need to prove ourselves worthy of our customers’ confidence every day.

    As an asset manager, customer confidence is of the utmost importance to us in our aim to be the best partner for those who want to increase their wealth over time. We fulfil our purpose, to create wealth, by thinking further with our customers and always making sure that our customers have a good wealth plan. Managing and increasing wealth in a well-planned way is to act responsibly, not only for ourselves, but also for those close to us. It should also be noted that a large part of the wealth in Finland will be transferred to the next generation within a decade, which requires a great deal of planning.

    Continued stable performance

    The financial result remained stable in the third quarter. The comparable operating profit of EUR 31.5 million was well in line with the two previous quarters of 2024 and was 2% higher than in the third quarter of 2023, which was the best quarter last year performance-wise. Our comparable return on equity (ROE) was 15% and the comparable cost-to-income ratio was 0.56 – both again at a better level than our long-term objectives of ROE of at least 12% and cost-to-income ratio below 0.60.

    The good result was driven by higher net commission income, strong net income from life insurance and continued cost control. On the other hand, the net interest income for the quarter was still partly burdened by the non-standard corporate interest rates announced in July. We revised the accounts in the third quarter, and the terms for corporate accounts are now up to date.

    Positive net subscriptions and improvement in the housing market

    The positive development in asset management continued. I am very pleased that customer assets under management continued to increase and especially that net subscriptions were positive during the quarter. Overall, the inflow into Aktia’s own funds has been strong this year and in September, Aktia Fund Management Company was among the best in Finland measured in net subscriptions. The fact that a significant proportion of investments are made in insurance wrappers shows that capitalisation redemption contracts and unit-linked insurance play an important role in our customers’ investment solutions. There is a clear confidence in Aktia’s investment solutions, and the best recognition we can get is when customers trust us to manage their wealth.

    There are also encouraging signs in the housing market, and we have noted a growing trend in the number of loan applications, which started to pick up in the summer. In the third quarter, we already saw growth in the loan book among Premium and Private banking customers, although the total loan book decreased slightly as a result of amortisations.

    Value creation through updated strategy

    As I have mentioned earlier, we are currently reviewing the Group’s overall strategy and long-term financial objectives. Our current strategy period extends to 2025, and now is the time to reflect and choose our priorities for the coming years. The work is progressing well and we look forward to being able to tell about our strategic priorities in more detail. However, the purpose of our activities remains the same: to create prosperity – for our customers, employees, owners, and society as a whole.

    Key Figures

    (EUR million)  Q3/2024 Q3/2023 ∆ % 1–9/2024 1–9/2023 ∆ % Q2/2024 ∆ % 1–12/2023
    Net interest income  36.1 38.6 -7% 114.0 102.3 11 % 38.8 -7% 140.4
    Net commission income  30.9 30.0 3% 91.8 90.6 1 % 30.8 0% 120.4
    Net income from life insurance  8.9 5.1 74% 23.9 18.0 33 % 7.4 21% 24.1
    Total operating income  76.1 74.3 2% 230.1 212.9 8 % 76.7 -1% 287.4
    Operating expenses  -43.1 -40.8 6% -129.3 -130.1 -1 % -44.8 -4% -176.6
    Impairment of credits and other commitments  -1.8 -2.3 -23% -6.3 -4.5 39% -1.8 -3% -7.0
    Operating profit  31.2 31.0 1% 94.6 78.1 21% 30.1 4% 102.6
    Comparable operating income1  76.1 74.3 2% 230.1 212.7 8 % 76.7 -1% 287.2
    Comparable operating expenses1  -42.8 -40.8 5% -127.7 -128.7 -1% -44.1 -3% -174.2
    Comparable operating profit1  31.5 31.0 2% 96.2 79.2 21% 30.8 2% 104.8
    Cost-to-income ratio  0.57 0.55 3% 0.56 0.61 -8% 0.58 -3% 0.61
    Comparable cost-to-income ratio1  0.56 0.55 3% 0.55 0.61 -8% 0.57 -2% 0.61
    Earnings per share (EPS), EUR  0.34 0.33 3% 1.05 0.85 23% 0.33 3% 1.12
    Comparable earnings per share (EPS), EUR, euro1  0.34 0.33 4% 1.06 0.86 23% 0.34 1% 1.15
    Return on equity (ROE), %  14.9 15.8 -0,9* 15.3 13.7 1,6* 14.5 0,3* 13.3
    Comparable return on equity (ROE), %1 15.0 15.8 -0,8* 15.6 13.9 1,7* 14.9 0,1* 13.6
    Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio (CET1), %2  11.9 11.0 0,9* 11.9 11.0 0,9* 11.5 0,4* 11.3

    1) Alternative performance measures
    2) At the end of the period
    * The change is calculated in percentage points

    Briefing for analysts, investors and media

    Aktia’s results briefing for analysts, investors and media will be held in English on Wednesday 6 November 2024 at 10.30 a.m. Aktia’s CEO Aleksi Lehtonen and interim CFO Karri Varis will present the results.

    The briefing can be viewed live as a webcast or as a recording after the event at https://aktia.videosync.fi/aktia-pankki-oyj-q3-report-2024. Questions can be submitted in writing during the live webcast.

    AKTIA BANK PLC

    For more information:
    Oscar Taimitarha, Director, Investor Relations, tel. +358 40 562 2315

    Distribution:
    Nasdaq Helsinki Ltd
    Mass media
    www.aktia.com

    Aktia is a Finnish asset manager, bank and life insurer that has been creating wealth and wellbeing from one generation to the next for 200 years. We serve our customers in digital channels everywhere and face-to-face in our offices in the Helsinki, Turku, Tampere, Vaasa and Oulu regions. Our award-winning asset management business sells investment funds internationally. We employ approximately 850 people around Finland. Aktia’s assets under management (AuM) on 30 September 2024 amounted to EUR 14.3 billion, and the balance sheet total was EUR 12.0 billion. Aktia’s shares are listed on Nasdaq Helsinki Ltd (AKTIA). aktia.com.

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    The MIL Network –

  • MIL-OSI: Credit Agricole Sa: Third quarter and first nine months 2024 results – VERY STRONG QUARTER, 2024 INCOME TARGET CONFIRMED

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    VERY STRONG QUARTER, 2024 INCOME TARGET CONFIRMED
    CASA AND CAG STATED AND UNDERLYING DATA Q3-2024
               
      CRÉDIT AGRICOLE S.A.   CRÉDIT AGRICOLE GROUP
        Stated   Underlying     Stated   Underlying
    Revenues   €6,487m
    +2.3% Q3/Q3    		   €6,484m
    +7.0% Q3/Q3    		     €9,213m
    -0.4% Q3/Q3    		   €9,210m
    +4.1% Q3/Q3
    Expenses   -€3,689m
    +9.2% Q3/Q3    		   -€3,654m
    +8.2% Q3/Q3    		     -€5,590m
    +6.2% Q3/Q3    		   -€5,556m
    +5.5% Q3/Q3
    Gross Operating Income   €2,799m
    -5.7% Q3/Q3    		   €2,830m
    +5.5% Q3/Q3    		     €3,623m
    -9.1% Q3/Q3    		   €3,654m
    +2.0% Q3/Q3
    Cost of risk   -€433m
    +0.9% Q3/Q3    		   -€433m
    +0.9% Q3/Q3    		     -€801m
    +15.6% Q3/Q3    		   -€801m
    +15.6% Q3/Q3
    Net income group share   €1,666m
    -4.7% Q3/Q3    		   €1,686m
    +10.9% Q3/Q3    		             €2,080m

    -12.8% Q3/Q3

    		   €2,100m
    +1.5% Q3/Q3
    C/I ratio   56.9%
    +3.6 pp Q3/Q3    		   56.4%
    +0.6 pp Q3/Q3    		     60.7%
    +3.7 pp Q3/Q3    		   60.3%
    +0.8 pp Q3/Q3
    RESULTS UP FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF THE YEAR; TARGET CONFIRMED OF >€6BN IN NET INCOME GROUP SHARE FOR 2024

    STRONG QUARTERLY RESULT

    • +8.2% growth in net income Group share excluding base effect related to reversals of Home Purchase Savings Plan provisions in Q3-23
    • High level of revenues, sharply up in underlying vision
    • Low cost/income ratio; support for business line development with a +4.1% increase in recurring expenses

    STRONG ACTIVITY IN ALL BUSINESS LINES

    • Solid performance in retail banking and consumer finance, supported by a good level of customer capture, higher on-balance sheet deposits in France and stable on-balance sheet deposits in Italy, gradual recovery in home loan activity and increased corporate loan production in France, continued momentum in international loan activity, and consumer finance activity stable at a high level
      • Excellent business momentum in CIB, asset management and insurance, reflected in high gross inflows in life insurance, continued brisk business in property and casualty and personal insurance, solid level of inflows and a record level of assets under management, CIB business still robust and record nine-month revenues

    CONTINUED STRATEGIC PROJECTS

    • Partnership with GAC in China on leasing and in Europe on automotive financing
    • Signing of an agreement to acquire Merca Leasing
    • Acquisition of Nexity Property Management

    VERY SOLID CAPITAL AND LIQUIDITY POSITIONS

    • Crédit Agricole S.A. phased-in CET1 11.7%
    • CA Group phased-in CET1 17.4%
     

    Dominique Lefebvre,
    Chairman of SAS Rue La Boétie and Chairman of the Crédit Agricole S.A. Board of Directors

    “The Group reports solid results this quarter. These results reinforce its desire to be useful to all its customers and to play a leading role in actively supporting the economy.”  
     
     

    Philippe Brassac,
    Chief Executive Officer of Crédit Agricole S.A.

    “Quarter after quarter, the Group publishes high-level results confirming the outlook for a 2024 result that is one year ahead of Crédit Agricole S.A.’s Ambitions for 2025.”

    		  

    This press release comments on the results of Crédit Agricole S.A. and those of Crédit Agricole Group, which comprises the Crédit Agricole S.A. entities and the Crédit Agricole Regional Banks, which own 62.4% of Crédit Agricole S.A. Please see the appendices to this press release for details of specific items, which are restated in the various indicators to calculate underlying income.

    Crédit Agricole Group

    Group activity

    The Group’s commercial activity during the quarter continued at a steady pace across all business lines, with a good level of customer capture. During the third quarter of 2024, the Group recorded +482,000 new customers in retail banking, and the customer base grew by +104,000 customers. More specifically, over the quarter, the Group recorded +383,000 new customers for Retail Banking in France and +99,000 new International Retail Banking customers (Italy and Poland), and the customer base also grew (+64,000 and +40,000 customers, respectively).

    At 30 September 2024, retail banking on-balance sheet deposits totalled €830 billion, up +2.8% year-on-year in France and Italy (+3.1% for Regional Banks and LCL and -0.4% in Italy). Outstanding loans totalled €876 billion, up +0.4% year-on-year in France and Italy (+0.2% for Regional Banks and LCL and +3.0% in Italy). Home loan production picked up gradually in France during this quarter, recording an increase of +20% for the Regional Banks and +73% for LCL compared to the second quarter of 2024, and -11% and +17% respectively compared to the third quarter of 2023. In Italy, home loan production was down -12% for CA Italy due to a base effect related to successful marketing campaigns in the third quarter of 2023. However, they were still up on second quarter 2024. The property and casualty insurance equipment rate1 rose to 43.8% for the Regional Banks (+0.7 percentage points compared to the third quarter of 2023), 27.9% for LCL (+0.3 percentage point) and 20.0% for CA Italy (+1.7 percentage point).

    In asset management, inflows remained healthy (+€14.4 billion excluding an insurance mandate withdrawal totalling -€11.6 billion), particularly with regard to medium/long-term assets excluding JVs (+€9 billion). Commercial momentum within JVs was also solid. In savings/retirement, Crédit Agricole Assurances posted a high level of gross inflows (€7.2 billion, up +56% year-on-year), the unit-linked rate remained high in production (32.8%), and net inflows were positive (+€1.6 billion) and growing. In property and casualty insurance, the portfolio grew by +5.1% year-on-year to 16.6 million policies. Assets under management were once again at their highest level ever, rising compared to the end of September 2023 in asset management (€2,192 billion, or +11.1%), life insurance (€343.2 billion, or +5.8%) and wealth management, which benefited from the integration of Degroof Petercam (IWM and Private Banking of LCL €274 billion, or +46.9%).

    SFS business line registered an activity stable at a high level, with an increase in consumer finance outstandings at CAPFM (+5.2% compared to the end of September 2023), driven by automotive activities, which account for 53%2 of total outstandings, and growth in production and leasing outstandings at CAL&F (€20.1 billion, or +8.8% compared to the end of September 2023).

    Momentum is strong in Large Customers, with record revenues in corporate and investment banking (best nine-month cumulative total), with capital markets and investment banking being driven by capital market activities, and financing activities benefiting from growth in commercial banking. CACEIS also posted a high level of assets under custody (€5,061 billion, +12.1% compared to the end of September 2023) and assets under administration (€3,386 billion, +4.2% compared to the end of September 2023). It benefited during the quarter from strong commercial momentum and positive market effects.

    Each of the Group’s business lines posted strong activity (see Infra).

    Continued support of transition

    Crédit Agricole Assurances has set out its new climate commitments, announcing its target to reduce carbon intensity of its portfolio3 by -50% by 2029 (compared to 2019).

    Crédit Agricole Group has also decided to participate in CDC’s energy and ecological transition financing support scheme. The Group will thus be able to raise up to €5.3 billion in liquidity by November 2025, exclusively for financing new projects contributing to the energy and ecological transition.

    The Group is continuing the mass roll-out of financing and investment to promote the transition. As such, the Crédit Agricole Group doubled its exposure to low-carbon energy financing4 between the end of 2020 and September 2024, with €21.9 billion at 30 September 2024. In addition, Crédit Agricole Assurances’s financing of renewable energy production capacity increased by +17% compared to the end of 2022, representing 13.8 gigawatts at 30 June 2024.

    Lastly, Crédit Agricole CIB’s green loan portfolio5 grew by +67% between the end of 2022 and September 2024, and represented €20.7 billion at 30 September 2024.

    Group results

    In the third quarter of 2024, the Crédit Agricole Group’s stated net income Group share came to €2,080 million, down -12.8% compared to the third quarter of 2023. This was due to significant specific items in the third quarter of 2023.

    Specific items in the third quarter of 2024 had a negative net impact of -€20 million on the net income Group share of the Crédit Agricole Group. These items comprise the following recurring accounting items: recurring accounting volatility items, namely the DVA (Debt Valuation Adjustment), the issuer spread portion of the FVA, and secured lending for +€3 million in net income Group share from capital markets and investment banking, and the hedging of the loan book in Large Customers for -€1 million in net income Group share. In addition to these recurring items, there were other items specific to this quarter: ISB integration costs of -€14 million in net income Group share of Large Customers, the Degroof Petercam integration costs of -€6 million in net income Group share of Asset Gathering, and the acquisition costs of Degroof Petercam totalling -€2 million in net income Group share of private banking.

    Specific items in the third quarter of 2023 had a cumulative positive impact of +€317 million in net income Group share and comprised DVA and hedging items for +€1 million under Large Customers, reversals of the Home Purchase Savings Plan provisions for +€297 million (+€38 million for LCL, +€171 million for the Corporate Centre and +€88 million for the Regional Banks), and the impact of the SFS division’s Mobility6 business for -€26 million under the equity method and +€45 million under gains and losses on other assets.

    Excluding these specific items, Crédit Agricole Group’s underlying net income Group share7 amounted to €2,100 million, up +1.5% compared to third quarter 2023.

    Crédit Agricole Group – Stated and underlying results, Q3-24 and Q3-23

    €m Q3-24
    stated    		 Specific items Q3-24
    underlying    		 Q3-23
    stated    		 Specific items Q3-23
    underlying    		 ∆ Q3/Q3
    stated    		 ∆ Q3/Q3
    underlying
                     
    Revenues 9,213 3 9,210 9,249 402 8,847 (0.4%) +4.1%
    Operating expenses excl.SRF (5,590) (34) (5,556) (5,265) 0 (5,265) +6.2% +5.5%
    SRF – – – – – – n.m. n.m.
    Gross operating income 3,623 (31) 3,654 3,984 402 3,582 (9.1%) +2.0%
    Cost of risk (801) 0 (801) (693) 0 (693) +15.6% +15.6%
    Equity-accounted entities 61 – 61 37 (26) 63 +65.7% (3.5%)
    Net income on other assets (5) (3) (2) 69 61 9 n.m. n.m.
    Change in value of goodwill – – – – – – n.m. n.m.
    Income before tax 2,877 (34) 2,912 3,397 436 2,961 (15.3%) (1.6%)
    Tax (587) 8 (595) (810) (120) (691) (27.6%) (13.8%)
    Net income from discont’d or held-for-sale ope. – – – 2 – 2 (100.0%) (100.0%)
    Net income 2,291 (26) 2,317 2,588 317 2,272 (11.5%) +2.0%
    Non controlling interests (211) 6 (217) (204) – (204) +3.4% +6.5%
    Net income Group Share 2,080 (20) 2,100 2,384 317 2,068 (12.8%) +1.5%
    Cost/Income ratio excl.SRF (%) 60.7%   60.3% 56.9%   59.5% +3.7 pp +0.8 pp

    In the third quarter of 2024, underlying revenues amounted to €9,210 million, up +4.1% compared to the third quarter of 2023, driven by favourable results from most of the business lines. Underlying revenues were up in French Retail Banking (+1.8%), while the Asset Gathering division benefited from good business momentum and the integration of Degroof Petercam, and the Large Customers division enjoyed a high level of revenues across all of its business lines, in addition to the integration of ISB. Meanwhile, revenues were down slightly for International Retail Banking and Specialised Financial Services, which were penalised by the drop in interest rates. Underlying operating expenses increased by +5.5% in the third quarter of 2024 to €5,556 million. This was due to scope effects, base effects on taxes and support for business line development. Overall, the Group saw its underlying cost/income ratio reach 60.3% in the third quarter of 2024, a moderate rise of +0.8 percentage point. As a result, the underlying gross operating income stood at €3,654 million, up +2.0% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

    The underlying cost of credit risk stood at -€801 million, a year-on-year increase of +15.6%. This figure comprises an addition of -€93 million for prudential provisions on performing loans (stages 1 and 2), an addition of -€709 million for the cost of proven risk (stage 3), the consequence of an increase in defaults in the corporate market, and additional provisioning for a number of corporate-specific files. There was also a reversal of +€1 million on other risks. The provisioning levels were determined by taking into account several weighted economic scenarios and by applying some flat-rate adjustments on sensitive portfolios. The weighted economic scenarios for the third quarter were unchanged from the second quarter, with a favourable scenario (French GDP at +1.2% in 2024, +1.5% in 2025) and an unfavourable scenario (French GDP at -0.2% in 2024 and +0.5% in 2025). The cost of risk/outstandings8reached 26 basis points over a four rolling quarter period and 27 basis points on an annualised quarterly basis9.

    Underlying pre-tax income stood at €2,912 million, a year-on-year decrease of -1.6%. This includes the contribution from equity-accounted entities of €61 million (down -3.5%) and net income on other assets, which came to -€2 million this quarter. The underlying tax charge fell by -13.8% over the period, the tax rate this quarter falling by -3.0 percentage points to 20.9%. Underlying net income before non-controlling interests was up +2.0% to €2,317 million. Non-controlling interests rose +6.5%. Lastly, underlying net income Group share was €2,100 million, +1.5% higher than in the third quarter of 2023.

    Crédit Agricole Group – Stated and underlying results 9M-24 and 9M-23

    €m 9M-24
    stated    		 Specific items 9M-24
    underlying    		 9M-23
    stated    		 Specific items 9M-23
    underlying    		 ∆ 9M/9M
    stated    		 ∆ 9M/9M
    underlying
                     
    Revenues 28,244 117 28,127 27,722 758 26,965 +1.9% +4.3%
    Operating expenses excl.SRF (16,866) (84) (16,782) (15,782) (18) (15,764) +6.9% +6.5%
    SRF – – – (620) – (620) (100.0%) (100.0%)
    Gross operating income 11,378 33 11,345 11,321 739 10,581 +0.5% +7.2%
    Cost of risk (2,324) (20) (2,304) (2,179) (84) (2,095) +6.6% +10.0%
    Equity-accounted entities 203 (0) 203 190 (39) 229 +6.7% (11.2%)
    Net income on other assets (19) (23) 4 107 89 18 n.m. (78.5%)
    Change in value of goodwill – – – – – – n.m. n.m.
    Income before tax 9,238 (10) 9,248 9,438 705 8,733 (2.1%) +5.9%
    Tax (2,104) (4) (2,100) (2,293) (180) (2,113) (8.2%) (0.6%)
    Net income from discont’d or held-for-sale ope. – – – 7 – 7 (100.0%) (100.0%)
    Net income 7,134 (14) 7,148 7,153 525 6,628 (0.3%) +7.9%
    Non controlling interests (643) 17 (659) (619) (0) (619) +3.8% +6.5%
    Net income Group Share 6,491 3 6,489 6,534 525 6,009 (0.6%) +8.0%
    Cost/Income ratio excl.SRF (%) 59.7%   59.7% 56.9%   58.5% +2.8 pp +1.2 pp

    In the first nine months of 2024, stated net income Group share amounted to €6,491 million, compared with €6,534 million in the first nine months of 2023, a difference of just -0.6%.

    Specific items for the first nine months of 2024 include the specific items of the Regional Banks for the first nine months of 2024 (+€47 million in reversals of Home Purchase Savings Plan provisions) and Crédit Agricole S.A. specific items, which are detailed in the Crédit Agricole S.A. section.

    Excluding specific items, underlying net income Group share reached €6,489 million, up +8.0% compared to the first nine months of 2023.

    Underlying revenues totalled €28,127 million, up +4.3% compared to the first nine months of 2023. This increase is attributable to growth in all business lines, reaching a total, excluding the Corporate Centre division, of +4.6% compared to the first nine months of 2023.

    Underlying operating expenses amounted to -€16,782 million, up +6.5% excluding SRF compared to the first nine months of 2023, mainly due to higher compensation in an inflationary environment, support for business development, IT expenditure and scope effects as detailed for each division. The underlying cost/income ratio for the first nine months of 2024 was 59.7%, up +1.2 percentage points compared to the first nine months of 2023 excluding SRF. The SRF stood at -€620 million in 2023.

    Underlying gross operating income totalled €11,345 million, up +7.2% compared to the first nine months of 2023.

    The underlying cost of risk for the first nine months of 2024 rose to -€2,304 million (of which -€178 million in cost of risk on performing loans (stages 1 and 2), -€2,148 million in cost of proven risk, and +€22 million in other risks corresponding mainly to reversals of legal provisions), i.e. an increase of +10.0% compared to the first nine months of 2023.

    As at 30 September 2024, risk indicators confirm the high quality of Crédit Agricole Group’s assets and risk coverage level. The diversified loan book is mainly geared towards home loans (45% of gross outstandings) and corporates (33% of gross outstandings). Loan loss reserves amounted to €21.3 billion at the end of September 2024 (€11.7 billion for Regional Banks), 41% of which represented provisioning of performing loans (47% for Regional Banks). The prudent management of these loan loss reserves meant that the Crédit Agricole Group’s overall coverage ratio for doubtful loans at the end of September 2024 was 82.8%.

    Underlying net income on other assets stood at €4 million in the first nine months of 2024, versus €18 million in the first nine months of 2023. Underlying pre-tax income before discontinued operations and non-controlling interests rose by +5.9% to €9,248 million. The tax charge was -€2,100 million, a change of just -0.6%, with an underlying effective tax rate of 23.2%, down -1.6 percentage points compared to the first nine months of 2023. Underlying net income before non-controlling interests was therefore up by +7.9%. Non-controlling interests amounted to -€659 million in the first nine months of 2023, up +6.5%.

    Underlying net income Group share for first nine months of 2024 thus stood at €6,489 million, up +8.0% compared to the first nine months of 2023.

    Regional banks

    Gross customer capture stands at +275,000 new customers and the customer base grew by +27,000 new customers over the same period. The percentage of customers using demand deposits as their main account and those who use digital tools continued to increase.

    Loan production was down -7% compared to the third quarter of 2023, reflecting the -11% drop in home loans and the decline in specialised markets. Home loan production has been gradually recovering since the beginning of the year (+20% compared to the second quarter 2024). The average lending production rate for home loans stood at 3.47%10 over July and August 2024, -16 basis points lower than in the second quarter of 2024. By contrast, the global loan stock rate showed a gradual improvement (+27 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2023). Outstanding loans totalled €646 billion at the end of September 2024, stable year-on-year across all markets but up slightly by +0.5% over the quarter.

    Customer assets were up +3.6% year-on-year to reach €903 billion at the end of September 2024. This growth was driven both by on-balance sheet deposits, which reached €601 billion (+2.5% compared to end September year-on-year), and off-balance sheet deposits, which reached €302 billion (+5.9% year-on-year) benefiting from favourable market effects and strong inflows in unit-linked bonds (€8 billion cumulative year-on-year). The mix of on-balance sheet deposits for the quarter remained almost unchanged, with demand deposits and term deposits fluctuating by -0.6% and +1% respectively from end-June 2024.

    The equipment rate for property and casualty insurance11 was 43.8% at the end of September 2024 and continues to rise (up +0.7 percentage point compared to the end of September 2023). In terms of payment instruments, the number of cards rose by +1.7% year-on-year, as did the percentage of premium cards in the stock, which increased by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year to account for 16.0% of total cards.

    In the third quarter of 2024, the Regional Banks’ consolidated revenues including the SAS Rue La Boétie dividend12 stood at €3,220 million, down -2.1% compared to the third quarter of 2023, notably impacted by a base effect of +€118 million13 related to the reversal of the Home Purchase Savings Plan provision in the third quarter of 2023. Excluding this item, revenues were up +1.5% year-on-year, the decline in the net interest margin (-11.6% excluding the Home Purchase Savings Plan13 base effect) being offset by the rise in portfolio revenues (+41.8%) and fee and commission income (+4.9%), itself driven by buoyant business in life insurance and account management. Operating expenses were up +3.5%, due to an increase in staff costs, property expenses and IT costs. Gross operating income was down -15.3% year-on-year (-3.8% excluding the Home Purchase Savings Plan13 base effect). The cost of risk was up by +43.7% compared to the third quarter of 2023 to stand at -€369 million. mainly due to the increase in proven risk in the corporate sector. Cost of risk/outstandings remained under control, at 22 basis points.

    The Regional Banks’ consolidated net income, including the SAS Rue La Boétie dividend,12 amounted to €351 million, down -38.0% compared to the third quarter of 2023 (-26.5% excluding the base effect13).

    The Regional Banks’ contribution to net income Group share was €371 million in the third quarter of 2024, down -36.9% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

    In the first nine months of 2024, revenues including the SAS Rue La Boétie dividend were up +2.2% compared to the same period in 2023. Operating expenses rose by +1.7%, resulting in a rise in gross operating income of +3% for the first nine months of 2024. Finally, with a cost of risk up +29%, the Regional Banks’ net income Group share, including the SAS Rue La Boétie dividend, amounted to €3,051 million, up +0.5% compared to the first nine months of 2023 (+1.9% excluding the Home Purchase Savings Plan base effect).

    The Regional Banks’ contribution to the results of Crédit Agricole Group in the first nine months of 2024 amounted to €1,021 million in stated net income Group share (-28.1% compared to the same period in 2023), with revenues of €9,834 million (-2%), expenses of -€7,453 (+3.3%) and a cost of risk of -€1,056 million (+27%).

    Crédit Agricole S.A.

    Results

    Crédit Agricole S.A.’s Board of Directors, chaired by Dominique Lefebvre, met on 5 November 2024 to examine the financial statements for third quarter 2024.

    Crédit Agricole S.A. – Stated and underlying results, Q3-24 and Q3-23

    €m Q3-24
    stated    		 Specific items Q3-24
    underlying    		 Q3-23
    stated    		 Specific items Q3-23
    underlying    		 ∆ Q3/Q3
    stated    		 ∆ Q3/Q3
    underlying
                     
    Revenues 6,487 3 6,484 6,343 284 6,060 +2.3% +7.0%
    Operating expenses excl.SRF (3,689) (34) (3,654) (3,376) 0 (3,376) +9.2% +8.2%
    SRF – – – – – – n.m. n.m.
    Gross operating income 2,799 (31) 2,830 2,967 284 2,684 (5.7%) +5.5%
    Cost of risk (433) 0 (433) (429) 0 (429) +0.9% +0.9%
    Equity-accounted entities 42 – 42 23 (26) 50 +81.3% (15.3%)
    Net income on other assets (4) (3) (1) 69 61 8 n.m. n.m.
    Change in value of goodwill – – – – – – n.m. n.m.
    Income before tax 2,404 (34) 2,438 2,630 318 2,312 (8.6%) +5.4%
    Tax (476) 8 (484) (633) (89) (544) (24.8%) (11.0%)
    Net income from discont’d or held-for-sale ope. – – – 2 – 2 n.m. n.m.
    Net income 1,928 (26) 1,954 1,999 229 1,770 (3.5%) +10.4%
    Non controlling interests (262) 6 (268) (251) (2) (250) +4.2% +7.5%
    Net income Group Share 1,666 (20) 1,686 1,748 227 1,520 (4.7%) +10.9%
    Earnings per share (€) 0.50 (0.01) 0.51 0.53 0.07 0.46 (5.5%) +11.4%
    Cost/Income ratio excl. SRF (%) 56.9%   56.4% 53.2%   55.7% +3.6 pp +0.6 pp

    In the third quarter of 2024, Crédit Agricole S.A.’s stated net income Group share came to €1,666 million, down -4.7% compared to the third quarter of 2023, having benefited from non-recurring items related to reversals of the Home Purchase Savings Plan provisions (see below). This was an excellent result for the third quarter of 2024, based on high revenues and a cost/income ratio kept at a low level.

    Specific items for this quarter had a cumulative impact of -€20 million on net income Group share, and included the following recurring accounting items: recurring accounting volatility items in revenues, such as the DVA (Debt Valuation Adjustment), the issuer spread portion of the FVA and secured lending for +€3 million in net income Group share in the Large Customers segment, and the hedging of the loan book in the Large Customers segment for -€1 million in net income Group share. In addition to these recurring items, there were a number of items specific to this quarter: Degroof Petercam integration costs of -€6 million in the net income Group share in Asset Gathering; ISB integration costs for -€14 million in the net income Group share in Large Customers, and the acquisition costs of Degroof Petercam for -€2 million in the net income Group share in Asset Gathering.

    Specific items for the third quarter of 2023 had a cumulative impact of +€227 million on net income Group share, and comprised recurring accounting items amounting to +€208 million (primarily reversals of Home Purchase Savings Plan provisions for +€37 million at LCL and +€171 million at the Corporate Centre). Non-recurring items were related to the ongoing reorganisation of the SFS division’s Mobility business amounting to +€19 million.

    Excluding a positive base effect related to the reversals of Home Purchase Savings Plan provisions, net income Group share was up +8.2% for the period.

    Excluding specific items, underlying net income Group share14 stood at €1,686 million in the third quarter of 2024, up +10.9% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

    In the third quarter of 2024, underlying revenues were at a high level, standing at €6,484 million. They were up sharply by +7.0% compared to the third quarter of 2023. This growth was driven by the Asset Gathering business line, which recorded growth of +12.9% as a result of strong business momentum and the integration of Degroof Petercam15; the Large Customers business line (+8.7%), which saw good results from all business lines with continued revenue growth in the third quarter in Corporate and Investment Banking, in addition to an improvement in the net interest margin and fee and commission income within CACEIS; Specialised Financial Services (-1.5%), which benefited from favourable scope and volume effects as well as a more stable margin in the Personal Finance and Mobility business line; French Retail Banking (+3.7%), which was boosted by an improved net interest margin and higher fee and commission income; and lastly, International Retail Banking (-1.8%), which was essentially impacted by the decline in the net interest margin in Italy. The Corporate Centre division recorded an increase in revenues of +€43 million.

    Underlying operating expenses totalled -€3,654 million in the third quarter of 2024, an increase of +8.2% compared to the third quarter of 2023, reflecting the support given to business line development. The -€278 million year-on-year increase in expenses was mainly due to a -€112 million scope effect,16 integration costs of -€29 million17, and a positive tax-related base effect of -€30 million. Recurring expenses were up by -€141 million, or +4.1% (-€38 million in staff costs, -€76 million in IT investments and -€27 million in other expenses).

    The underlying cost/income ratio in the third quarter of 2024 thus stood at 56.4%, an increase of +0.6 percentage points compared to the third quarter of 2023.

    Underlying gross operating income in the third quarter of 2024 stood at €2,830 million, an increase of +5.5% compared to the third quarter of 2023. It was up +4.2% when restated solely for reversals of the Home Purchase Savings Plan provisions.

    As at 30 September 2024, risk indicators confirm the high quality of Crédit Agricole S.A.’s assets and risk coverage level. The diversified loan book is mainly geared towards home loans (26% of gross outstandings) and corporates (43% of Crédit Agricole S.A. gross outstandings). The Non Performing Loans ratio showed little change from the previous quarter and remained low at 2.5%. The coverage ratio18 was high at 71.4%, up +0.1 percentage points over the quarter. Loan loss reserves amounted to €9.6 billion for Crédit Agricole S.A., a -€0.1 billion decline from end-June 2024. Of those loan loss reserves, 34% were for performing loans (percentage in line with previous quarters).

    The underlying cost of risk showed a net addition of -€433 million, up +0.9% from the third quarter of 2023, which included a -€38 million addition for performing loans (stages 1 and 2) (versus a reversal of +€59 million in the third quarter of 2023) and -€388 million in provisioning for proven risks (stage 3) (versus -€487 million in the third quarter of 2023). There was also a small addition of -€7 million for other items (legal provisions). By business line, 52% of the net addition for the quarter came from Specialised Financial Services (unchanged from end-September 2023), 19% from LCL (16% at end-September 2023), 14% from International Retail Banking (28% at end-September 2023), 4% from Large Customers (3% at end-September 2023) and 8% from the Corporate Centre (zero at end-September 2023). The increase in the cost of risk for the Corporate Centre was mainly due to the increase in the risk on financing secured by Foncaris. The provisioning levels were determined by taking into account several weighted economic scenarios and by applying some flat-rate adjustments on sensitive portfolios. The weighted economic scenarios for the third quarter were unchanged from the second quarter, with a favourable scenario (French GDP at +1.2% in 2024, +1.5% in 2025) and an unfavourable scenario (French GDP at -0.2% in 2024 and +0.5% in 2025). In the third quarter of 2024, the cost of risk/outstandings was 32 basis points over a rolling four-quarter period19 and 32 basis points on an annualised quarterly basis20 (an improvement of 1 basis point compared to the third quarter of 2023 for both bases).

    The underlying contribution from equity-accounted entities amounted to €42 million in the third quarter of 2024, down -15.3% compared to the third quarter of 2023, driven in particular by the strong growth of equity-accounted entities in asset management and a decline in the Personal Finance and Mobility business line.

    Underlying income21before tax, discontinued operations and non-controlling interests was up +5.4% to €2,438 million. The underlying effective tax rate stood at 20.2%, i.e. down -3.8 percentage points compared to the third quarter of 2023. The underlying tax charge was -€484 million, down -11% mainly due to the impact of reduced-tax disposals of equity interests and the revaluation of securities at fair value in the Insurance business line, partially offset by the increase in the tax rate in Ukraine. Underlying net income before non-controlling interests was up +10.4% to €1,954 million. Non-controlling interests amounted to -€268 million in the third quarter of 2024, an increase of +7.5%.

    Underlying earnings per share in third quarter of 2024 reached €0.51, increasing by +11.4% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

    Crédit Agricole S.A. – Stated and underlying results, 9M-24 and 9M-23

    €m 9M-24
    stated    		 Specific items 9M-24
    underlying    		 9M-23
    stated    		 Specific items 9M-23
    underlying    		 ∆ 9M/9M
    stated    		 ∆ 9M/9M
    underlying
                     
    Revenues 20,089 53 20,036 19,140 598 18,542 +5.0% +8.1%
    Operating expenses excl.SRF (10,978) (84) (10,894) (9,922) (18) (9,904) +10.6% +10.0%
    SRF – – – (509) – (509) (100.0%) (100.0%)
    Gross operating income 9,111 (30) 9,141 8,709 580 8,129 +4.6% +12.5%
    Cost of risk (1,256) (20) (1,236) (1,338) (84) (1,253) (6.1%) (1.3%)
    Equity-accounted entities 132 (0) 132 136 (39) 175 (3.4%) (24.7%)
    Net income on other assets 5 (23) 28 102 89 13 (95.3%) x 2.1
    Change in value of goodwill – – – – – – n.m. n.m.
    Income before tax 7,991 (73) 8,064 7,609 545 7,064 +5.0% +14.2%
    Tax (1,790) 12 (1,803) (1,832) (149) (1,682) (2.3%) +7.1%
    Net income from discont’d or held-for-sale ope. – – – 7 – 7 n.m. n.m.
    Net income 6,201 (61) 6,262 5,785 396 5,389 +7.2% +16.2%
    Non controlling interests (803) 16 (820) (771) (2) (769) +4.2% +6.6%
    Net income Group Share 5,397 (45) 5,442 5,014 394 4,620 +7.6% +17.8%
    Earnings per share (€) 1.59 (0.01) 1.60 1.53 0.13 1.40 +3.8% +14.5%
    Cost/Income ratio excl.SRF (%) 54.6%   54.4% 51.8%   53.4% +2.8 pp +1.0 pp

    In the first nine months of 2024, stated net income Group share amounted to €5,397 million, compared with €5,014 million in the first nine months of 2023, an increase of +7.6%.

    Specific items in the first nine months of 2024 had a negative impact of -€45 million on stated net income Group share, and comprise +€39 million in recurring accounting items and -€84 million in non-recurring items. The recurring items mainly correspond to the reversals of and additions to the Home Purchase Savings Plans provisions for +€1 million net, as well as the accounting volatility items of the Large Customers division (the DVA for +€33 million and loan book hedging for +€5 million). Non-recurring items relate to the costs of integrating and acquiring Degroof Petercam (-€27 million) within the Asset Gathering division, the costs of integrating (-€37 million) and acquiring (-€17 million) ISB within the Large Customers division and an additional provision for risk in Ukraine (-€20 million) within the International Retail Banking division.

    Excluding specific items, underlying Net income Group share reached €5,442 million, up +17.8% compared to the first nine months of 2023.

    Underlying revenues were up +8.1% compared to the first nine months of 2023, driven by all business lines. Underlying operating expenses were +10% higher than in 2023, essentially reflecting the development of the Group’s business lines and the integration of scope effects, partially offset by the end of the SRF22 building-up period. The underlying cost/income ratio excluding SRF for the period was 54.4%, an increase of 1 percentage point compared to the same period in 2023. Underlying gross operating income totalled €9,141 million, up +12.5% compared to the first nine months of 2023. The underlying cost of risk decreased by -1.3% over the period to -€1,236 million, versus -€1,253 million in 2023. Lastly, underlying contributions from equity-accounted entities amounted to €132 million, down -24.7% over the period.

    Underlying earnings per share were €1.60 per share in the first nine months of 2024, up +14.5% compared to the first nine months of 2023.

    Underlying RoTE 23, which is calculated on the basis of an annualised underlying Net Income Group Share 24 and IFRIC charges linearised over the year, net of annualised Additional Tier 1 coupons (return on equity Group share excluding intangibles) and net of foreign exchange impact on reimbursed AT1, and restated for certain volatile items recognised in equity (including unrealised gains and/or losses), reached 14.5% over the first nine months of 2024, up by +1 percentage point compared to the first nine months of 2023.

    Analysis of the activity and the results of Crédit Agricole S.A.’s divisions and business lines

    Activity of the Asset Gathering division

    In the third quarter of 2024, assets under management in the Asset Gathering division (AG) totalled €2,809 billion, up +€46 billion over the quarter (or +1.7%), mainly due to a positive market effect and a good level of net inflows in the three business lines of Asset Management, Insurance and Wealth Management. Over the year, assets under management rose by +13.1%.

    Insurance activity (Crédit Agricole Assurances) was very strong with total premium income of €9.7 billion – a record level for a third quarter – up +38.9% compared to the third quarter of 2023, and up in all three segments: savings/retirement, property and casualty, and death & disability/creditor/group insurance. In total, overall premium income stood at €32.8 billion, up +18.2% compared to the first nine months of 2023.

    In Savings/Retirement, third-quarter premium income stood at €7.2 billion, up +56.4% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Business was driven by euro payment bonus campaigns in France, launched during the first quarter, which boosted gross euro inflows, as well as by a confirmed upturn in international business. The unit-linked rate accounted for 32.8% of gross inflows, down -7.5 percentage points compared to the third quarter of 2023. This decline is linked to the recovery in gross euro inflows and less favourable market conditions for unit-linked products, in particular the reduced attractiveness of unit-linked bond products. Net inflows totalled +€1.6 billion this quarter, on par with last quarter. This level is made up of positive net inflows from unit-linked contracts (+€0.9 billion) and also from euro funds (+€0.8 billion). In total, Savings/Retirement premium income reached €23.9 billion at the end of September, up +23.1% compared to the end of September 2023.

    Assets under management (savings, retirement and funeral insurance), which stood at €343.2 billion, continued to rise and reached their highest level ever. They were up +€19.0 billion over one year, or +5.8%, and +€12.9 billion since the beginning of the year, or +3.9%. The growth of assets under management was supported by a positive market effect and positive net inflows. Unit-linked contracts reached 29.9% of assets under management, up +2.3 percentage points over one year and +1.0 percentage point compared to the end of December 2023.

    In property and casualty insurance, premium income stood at €1.2 billion in the third quarter of 2024, up +9.2%25 compared to the third quarter of 2023. This growth was driven by volume and price effects. Indeed, at the end of September 2024, the portfolio stood at nearly 16.6 million26 contracts, up +5.1% year-on-year. At the same time, the average premium was up, benefiting from rate revisions in addition to changes in the product mix.  Lastly, the combined ratio at the end of September 2024 stood at 95.5%27, a deterioration of +0.3 percentage point year-on-year due to the unfavourable impact of discounting. In total, at the end of September 2024, premium income stood at €4.9 billion, an increase of +7.8% compared to the first nine months of 2023.

    In death & disability/creditor/group insurance, premium income for the third quarter of 2024 stood at €1.3 billion, up +2.2% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Creditor insurance premium income rose by +1.6% compared to the third quarter of 2023, thanks to an upturn in consumer finance and good performance in real estate. Death and disability was up +3.5% compared to the third quarter of 2023, mainly driven by group insurance, which posted an increase of +9.5%. In group insurance, an agreement was signed with Industries Electriques et Gazières in October 2024, with effect from the second half of 2025. In total, at the end of September, premium income from personal protection stood at €4.0 billion, an increase of +5.7% compared to the first nine months of 2023.

    In Asset Management (Amundi), Amundi’s assets under management saw a +11.1% increase year-on-year at 30 September 2024 and a +1.6% increase over the quarter to €2,192 billion, an all-time high. The +€35.4 billion increase in assets under management over the quarter was due to a positive market and foreign exchange impact of +€32.5 billion and positive net inflows of +€2.9 billion.

    This quarter’s net inflows include the exit from a mandate worth €11.6 billion with a European insurer, which was not generating much revenue. Adjusted for this outflow, net inflows for the quarter stood at +€14.4 billion, including +€9.1 billion in medium- and long-term assets28, driven by active management and ETFs. Structured products and real and alternative assets also recorded positive inflows, while treasury products28 were stable. Lastly, the JVs continued their solid commercial momentum, with net inflows of +€5.3 billion, reflecting a positive contribution from India and South Korea.

    By customer segment, Retail inflows (+€6.3 billion in the third quarter of 2024) were driven by the excellent momentum of third-party distributors (+€6.8 billion), across all regions and with good diversification of inflows by asset class. Excluding the loss of the insurance mandate mentioned above, the Institutional segment recorded very positive inflows in MLT assets across all segments, in particular Institutional and Sovereign, and on mandates from insurers in the Crédit Agricole Groupe and the Société Générale group, thanks to the continued recovery in the euro-denominated life insurance policies market in France during the quarter. Treasury products, on the other hand, experienced sharp seasonal outflows in this segment.

    In Wealth Management, total assets under management (CA Indosuez Wealth Management and LCL Private Banking) amounted to €274 billion at the end of September 2024, and were up +2.7% compared to June 2024 and +46.9% compared to September 2023.

    Indosuez Wealth Management had assets under management of €209.2 billion29 at the end of September, up +2.1%, or +€4.2 billion, compared to the end of June 2024 due to a positive market effect of +€2.5 billion and good level of activity with positive net inflows of +€1.8 billion, driven in particular by Switzerland and Asia. The quarter also saw Degroof Petercam funds begin to be marketed to Indosuez clients. Compared with the end of September 2023, assets under management were up by +€84.3 billion (or +67.5%), taking into account a scope effect of €69 billion (integration of Degroof Petercam in June 2024), a positive market effect and a good level of net inflows.

    In LCL’s Private Banking division, assets under management at the end of September totalled €64.8 billion, up by +€1.0 billion or +1.5% compared to the end of June 2024, thanks to a positive market effect and positive net inflows. Compared with the end of September 2023, assets under management were up by +€3.2 billion (or +5.3%), mainly due to a positive market effect, and also to positive net inflows.

    Results of the Asset Gathering division

    In the third quarter of 2024, AG generated €1,870 million in revenues, up +12.9% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Expenses rose by +20.9% to -€868 million. Thus, the cost/income ratio stood at 46.4%, up +3.0 percentage points compared to the third quarter of 2023. Gross operating income stood at €1,002 million, up +6.9% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Taxes stood at -€157 million, compared with -€221 million at the end of September 2023 (down -29.1%). The net income Group share of AG stood at €728 million, up +17.1% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

    At the end of September 2024, AG generated revenues of €5,603 million, up +9.1% compared to the end of September 2023. The increase is explained by a very high level of revenues in all three business lines: Insurance, Asset Management and Wealth Management. Costs excluding SRF increased +13.4%. As a result, the cost/income ratio excluding SRF stood at 43.5%, up +1.6 percentage points compared to the end of September 2023. Gross operating income stood at €3,168 million, an increase of +6.3% compared to the end of September 2023. Taxes stood at -€659 million, compared with -€699 million at the end of September 2023 (down -5.7%). The net income Group share of AG stood at €2,180 million, up +9.3% compared to the first nine months of 2023. Net income Group share increased between the first nine months of 2023 and the first nine months of 2024 in Asset Management (+10.2%) and the Insurance business lines (+11.3%), but was down in Wealth Management (-18.9%).

    At the end of September 2024, the Asset Gathering division contributed by 37% to the underlying net income Group share of the Crédit Agricole S.A. core businesses (excluding Corporate Centre division) and 27% to underlying revenues excluding the Corporate Centre division.

    As at 30 September 2024, equity allocated to the division amounted to €12.6 billion, including €10.4 billion for Insurance, €1.3 billion for Asset Management, and €0.8 billion for Wealth Management. The division’s risk-weighted assets amounted to €58.7 billion, including €35.7 billion for Insurance, €14.1 billion for Asset Management and €8.9 billion for Wealth Management.

    The underlying RoNE (return on normalised equity) stood at 27.1% for the first nine months of 2024.

    Insurance results

    In the third quarter of 2024, insurance revenues amounted to €635 million, down -1.2% compared to the third quarter of 2023. This includes €418 million from savings/retirement30, €117 million from personal protection31 and €40 million from property and casualty insurance32. Against a backdrop of increased business activity, the decline in revenues is explained in particular by the change in Property & Casualty claims, which were low in the third quarter of 2023 and higher in the third quarter of 2024, particularly for crop insurance, as well as by an unfavourable effect linked to the replacement of AT1 debt (for which the expense was recorded as minority interests) by Tier 2 debt (the cost of which is deducted from revenues).

    The contractual service margin (CSM) stood at €24.9 billion, up +4.5% since 31 December 2023. In the first nine months of 2024, the impact of the stock revaluation was positive, and the impact of new business exceeded the CSM allocation.

    Non-attributable expenses for the quarter stood at €85 million, up +5.1% over the third quarter of 2023. Gross operating income stood at €550 million, down -2.1% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Taxes stood at -€51 million, compared with -€131 million for the third quarter of 2023. This decline is due to a re-estimation of the tax rate including the impact of reduced-tax disposals of equity interests and the revaluation of securities at fair value, which took place during the quarter. Net income Group share stood at €478 million, up +16.2% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

    Revenues from insurance in the first nine months of 2024 came to €2,130 million, up +5.4% compared to the total at the end of September 2023. Non-attributable expenses came to €264 million, i.e. an increase of +11.4%. The cost/income ratio stood at 12.4%, below the target ceiling of 15% set by the Medium-Term Plan. Gross operating income stood at €1,866 million, up +4.6% compared to the first nine months of 2023. The tax charge stood at -€354 million, below the September 2023 level of -€411 million. Net income Group share amounted to €1,466 million, up +11.3% compared to the first nine months of 2023.

    Insurance contributed by 25% to the underlying net income Group share of the Crédit Agricole S.A. core businesses (excluding the Corporate Centre division) at the end of September 2024 and by 10% to their underlying revenues.

    Asset Management results

    In the third quarter of 2024, revenues amounted to €838 million, showing double-digit growth (+10.3% compared to the third quarter of 2023). The +9.2% increase in management fee and commission income compared to the third quarter of 2023 reflects the good level of activity and the increase in average assets under management excluding JVs (which increased by +8.6% over the same period, and by +1.2% between the second and third quarter). Performance fees increased by +€10 million compared with the third quarter of 2023, but there were fewer crystallisation dates in the third quarter than in the second or fourth quarters. Amundi Technology’s revenues increased by +41.8% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Financial revenues were down by -10.6% compared to third quarter of 2023. Operating expenses stood at -€466 million, up +7.5% mainly due to the consolidation of Alpha Associates, accelerated investment and the impact of revenue growth on variable compensation. The jaws effect was positive over the quarter. The cost/income ratio thus stood at 55.6%, an improvement year-on-year (-1.5 percentage point). Gross operating income increased by +14.1% compared to the third quarter of 2023. The contribution from equity-accounted entities, comprising the contribution from Amundi’s Asian joint ventures, stood at €33 million, up +36.4% from the third quarter of 2023, driven mainly by the strong growth of the contribution from SBI MF in India. The income tax charge stood at -€92 million, up +14.9%. Net income before non-controlling interests was €312 million, up +16.4% compared to the total at the end of September 2023. Net income Group share stood at €208 million, up +16.8% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

    In the first nine months of 2024, revenues rose by +7.2% in asset management, reflecting sustained growth in management fee and commission income and a sharp increase in Amundi Technology revenues (€54m, +28.2%) and net financial income. Performance fees were down slightly (-2.0%). Operating expenses excluding SRF increased by +6.3%. The cost/income ratio excluding SRF was 55.3%, stable compared to the total at the end of September 2023. As a result, gross operating income was up +8.8% compared to the first nine months of 2023. The net income of equity-accounted entities increased by +28.4%. All in all, net income Group share for the half-year stood at €623 million, an increase of +10.2%.

    Asset management contributed 10% to the underlying net income Group share of Crédit Agricole S.A.’s core businesses (excluding the Corporate Centre division) at end September 2024 and by 12% to their underlying revenues.

    At 30 September 2024, equity allocated to the Asset Management business line amounted to €1.3 billion, while risk-weighted assets totalled €14.1 billion.

    Wealth Management results33

    Revenues of Wealth Management stood at €397 million in the third quarter of 2024, up +56.6% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Revenues benefited from the impact of the integration of Degroof Petercam in June 2024; excluding this effect, they were supported by the good momentum of management fee and commission income, which offset the erosion of interest revenues. Expenses totalled -€317 million, up +55.5% compared to the third quarter of 2023, due to the impact of the integration of Degroof Petercam in June 202434 and integration costs of -€8 million in the third quarter. Restated for these impacts, growth in expenses is stable (+0.2% compared to the third quarter of 2023). The cost/income ratio in the third quarter of 2024 stood at 79.9%, down -0.6 percentage points compared to the third quarter of 2023. Gross operating income stood at €80 million, up +61.4% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Cost of risk was -€11 million in the third quarter of 2024, including the recognition of litigations and provisions for various cases. Net income on other assets stood at -€3 million in the third quarter of 2024, corresponding to the Degroof Petercam acquisition costs, restated as specific items. Net income Group share amounted to €42 million, up +30.6% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

    In the first nine months of 2024, Wealth Management’s revenues rose by +24.7% compared to the end of September 2023, notably benefiting from the integration of Degroof Petercam in June 2024 to reach €967 million. Expenses excluding SRF rose by +29.3% due to the impact of the integration of Degroof Petercam in June 2024 and the €14 million in integration costs. Restated for these impacts, growth in expenses is under control, increasing by +3.6% compared to the first nine months of 2023, due in particular to an unfavourable base effect in 2023. Gross operating income thus rose by +10.0% to €181 million. The cost of risk was -€12 million at the end of September 2024 (it was +€1 million at the end of September 2023). Net income on other assets stood at -€23 million at the end of September 2024, corresponding to the Degroof Petercam acquisition costs, restated as specific items. Net income Group share stood at €91 million for the first nine months of 2024, down -18.9% compared to the first nine months of 2023, but up +4.5% after restatement for integration and acquisition costs.

    Wealth Management contributed 2% of Crédit Agricole S.A.’s business lines underlying net income Group share. (excluding the Corporate Centre division) at end September 2024 and by 5% to their underlying revenues.

    At 30 September 2024, equity allocated to Wealth Management was €0.8 billion and risk-weighted assets totalled €8.9 billion.

    Activity of the Large Customers division

    Corporate and Investment Banking (CIB) once again posted a very good performance in the third quarter of 2024 (best third quarter and best year-to-date in terms of both revenues and results). Asset servicing also recorded strong business momentum during the period.

    CIB third-quarter underlying revenues rose sharply to €1,528 million, an increase of +8.0% compared to the third quarter of 2023, driven by growth in its two business lines. Revenues from Financing activities were up +7.2% compared to the third quarter of 2023, at €809 million. This was mainly due to the excellent performance of Commercial Banking (+9.5% compared to the third quarter of 2023), driven by the development of Corporate activities, especially in the Telecom sector, and a good level of revenues from asset financing and project financing. Capital Markets and Investment Banking also reported revenue growth of +9.0% compared to the third quarter of 2023, at €719 million, driven by the continued high level of performance of Capital Markets (+6.2% compared to the third quarter of 2023 for FICC) and the good level of activity in Investment Banking, (+22.8% compared to the third quarter of 2023), confirming the trend observed at the end of the first half of 2024.

    Financing activities thus confirmed its leading position in syndicated loans (#2 in France35 and #2 in EMEA35). Crédit Agricole CIB reaffirmed its strong position in bond issues (#3 All bonds in EUR Worldwide35) and was ranked #2 in Green, Social & Sustainable bonds in EUR36. Average regulatory VaR stood at €10.1 million in the third quarter of 2024, unchanged from the second quarter of 2024 when it was €10.1 million. It remained at a level that reflected prudent risk management.

    In addition, the third quarter of 2024 saw the continued migration of ISB (formerly RBC Investor Services in Europe) customer portfolios to CACEIS platforms, following the effective merger of the legal entities with those of CACEIS on 31 May 2024. Customer migration is expected to continue until the end of 2024. As a reminder, ISB integration costs will be recorded during the year for an amount of around €80 million to €100 million, including €25.9 million in the third quarter of 2024, i.e. €70 million recorded in the first nine months of 2024.

    In the third quarter of 2024, solid customer business and market effects supported growth in assets over the year. Assets under custody increased by +1.9% at the end of September 2024 compared to the end of June 2024 and increased by +12.1% compared to the end of September 2023, to reach €5,061 billion. Assets under administration were down -1.2% over the quarter (planned exit of some ISB customers) and up +4.2% year-on-year, reaching €3,386 billion at the end of September 2024.

    Results of the Large Customers division

    In the third quarter of 2024, stated revenues of the Large Customers division once again reached a record level of €2,054 million, up +8.8% compared to the third quarter of 2023, buoyed by excellent performance in the Corporate and Investment Banking and Asset Servicing business lines. The division’s specific items this quarter had an impact of +€2.8 million on Corporate and Investment Banking and comprised the DVA, the issuer spread portion of the FVA and secured lending amounting to +€3.6 million, and loan book hedging totalling -€0.8 million. Operating expenses were up compared to the third quarter of 2023 (+8.8%), due, on the one hand, to IT investments and the development of the business lines’ activity and, on the other hand, to the recognition of ISB integration costs of -€25.9 million, restated as specific items. As a result, the division’s gross operating income was up +8.8% from the third quarter of 2023 to €814 million. The division recorded an overall net addition for cost of risk of -€19 million in the third quarter of 2024, compared with an addition of -€13 million in the third quarter of 2023. Stated pre-tax income totalled €800 million, an increase over the period (+8.2%). The tax charge was
    -€234 million. Lastly, stated Net income Group share reached €520 million in the third quarter of 2024, compared with stated income of €488 million in the third quarter of 2023. Underlying net income Group share came to €532 million in the third quarter of 2024, versus €488 million in the third quarter of 2023.

    Over the first nine months of 2024, stated revenues of the Large Customers division amounted to a record high of €6,543 million, i.e. +12.0% compared to the first nine months of 2023. Operating expenses excluding SRF rose +13.4% compared to the same period to -€3,298 million, largely related to employee expenses and IT investments, and including ISB integration costs of -€70 million. Gross operating income for the first nine months of 2024 totalled €2,802 million, representing an increase of +25.4% compared to the first nine months of 2023. Over the period, the cost of risk recorded a net addition of -€25 million, compared to an addition of -€81 million in the same period. The business line’s contribution to stated Net income Group share was €1,936 million, a strong increase of +30.3% compared to the first nine months of 2023. Underlying net income Group share came to €1,935 million in the first nine months of 2024, versus €1,520 million in the first nine months of 2023.

    The division contributed 33% to the underlying net income Group share of Crédit Agricole S.A.’s core businesses (excluding the Corporate Centre division) at end September 2024 and 31% to underlying revenues excluding the Corporate Centre.

    At 30 September 2024, the equity allocated to the division was €13.3 billion and its risk-weighted assets were €140.5 billion.

    Underlying RoNE (return on normalised equity) stood at 19.0% at the end of September 2024.

    Corporate and Investment Banking results

    In the third quarter of 2024, Corporate and Investment Banking stated revenues reached a record at €1,531 million, up +8.2% from the third quarter of 2023. The Corporate and Investment Banking division’s specific items this quarter had an impact of +€2.8 million and comprised the DVA, the issuer spread portion of the FVA, and secured lending amounting to +€3.6 million, and loan book hedging totalling -€0.8 million. Operating expenses rose by +7.2% to -€864 million, mainly due to IT investments and the development of business line activities. Gross operating income rose sharply by +9.5% compared to the third quarter of 2023, taking it to a high level of +€667 million. The cost/income ratio was 56.4%, a slight change of -0.5 percentage point over the period. The cost of risk recorded a limited net provision of -€14 million, stable compared to the third quarter of 2023. Lastly, pre-tax income in the third quarter of 2024 stood at €653 million, versus €596 million in the third quarter of 2023. The tax charge stood at -€195 million. Lastly, stated net income Group share rose sharply by +10.3% to €446 million in the third quarter of 2024.

    Over the first nine months of 2024, stated revenues rose by +7.6% compared to the excellent level recorded in the first nine months of 2023, to a record level of €4,995 million. The specific items over the period had an impact of +€52.2 million and comprised the DVA (the issuer spread portion of the FVA and secured lending) amounting to +€45.8 million, and loan book hedging totalling +€6.3 million. Operating expenses excluding SRF rose +5.1%, mainly due to variable compensation and investments in IT and employees to support the development of the business lines. Thus, gross operating income of €2,370 million was up sharply (+26.5% compared to the first nine months of 2023). The cost of risk recorded a net provision of -€7 million in the first nine months of 2024, compared to a net provision of -€80 million in the first nine months of 2023. The income tax charge stood at -€609 million, up +27.1%. Lastly, stated net income Group share stood at €1,715 million for the first nine months of 2024, an increase of +33.6% over the period, the highest historical level. Underlying Net income Group share stood at €1,677 million over the first nine months of 2024, versus €1,318 million over the same period in 2023.

    Risk-weighted assets at the end of September 2024 were down -€2.7 billion compared to the end of June 2024 at €128.6 billion, still well under control with business growth.

    Asset servicing results

    In the third quarter of 2024, the revenues of Asset Servicing were up +10.7% compared to the third quarter of 2023, standing at €523 million. This rise was driven in particular by high fee and commission income, itself driven by the increase in assets and by the favourable trend in NIM. Operating expenses rose by +12.8% to
    -€376 million, including -€4 million in scope effects linked to the consolidation of the remaining ISB entities and a -€25.8 million in ISB integration costs restated as specific items. Excluding these effects, the increase in expenses was +5.5% compared to the third quarter of 2023. As a result, gross operating income was up by +5.7% to €147 million in the third quarter of 2024. Thus, the cost/income ratio stood at 71.9%, up +1.3 percentage points. Excluding ISB integration costs and the consolidation of the remaining ISB entities, it stood at 66.2%, an improvement of 3.3 percentage points compared to the third quarter of 2023. The quarter also recorded +€6 million in income from equity-accounted entities. Net income thus totalled €109 million, down -10.8% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Adjusted for the €35 million share of non-controlling interests, the business line’s contribution to stated net income Group share totalled €74 million in the third quarter of 2024, down -11.7% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Excluding ISB integration costs, net income Group share was up +4.8% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

    Stated revenues for the first nine months of 2024 were up +28.7% compared to the same period in 2023, buoyed by the integration of ISB, strong commercial momentum and a favourable trend in the interest margin over the period. Expenses excluding SRF were up +39.2% and included a scope effect of -€207 million over the first six months of 2024 and -€70 million in ISB integration costs. Gross operating income was up +20.0% compared to the first nine months of 2023. The cost/income ratio stood at 72.1%, an improvement of 5.5 points compared to the third quarter of 2023. Net income thus rose by +10.1%. The overall contribution of the business line to net income Group share in the first nine months of 2024 was €221 million, a +9.3% increase compared to the first nine months of 2023.

    Specialised financial services activity

    Crédit Agricole Personal Finance & Mobility’s (CAPFM) commercial production totalled €11.6 billion in the third quarter of 2024, stable compared to the third quarter of 2023. The share of automotive financing37 in quarterly new business production stood at 50.6% this quarter. The average customer rate for production was down -24 basis points from the second quarter of 2024. CAPFM’s assets under management stood at €116.8 billion at the end of September 2024, up +5.2% compared to the end of September 2023, driven by all activities (Automotive +6,9%38; LCL and Regional Banks +5.6%; Other entities +3.3%). Lastly, consolidated outstandings totalled €68.9 billion at the end of September 2024, up +4.7% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

    CAPFM has announced a number of recent developments: a plan to acquire 50% of GAC Leasing; a pan-European partnership with GAC Motor International to entrust CA Auto Bank with the financing of vehicles made by Chinese manufacturer GAC; a partnership with FATEC to offer a fleet management service to its customers; and an agreement with EDF to ramp up the installation of electric charging stations in France.

    Crédit Agricole Leasing & Factoring (CAL&F) commercial production increased by +13.6% compared to the third quarter of 2023. It was driven by all business lines, and was particularly strong in property leasing and renewable energy financing. Property leasing continued to grow in France and abroad. Leasing outstandings rose +8.8% year-on-year, both in France (+6.7%) and internationally (+17.4%), to reach €20.1 billion at the end of September 2024 (of which €15.9 billion in France and €4.2 billion internationally). Commercial factoring production fell by -17% compared to the third quarter of 2023. As a reminder, the third quarter of 2023 was marked by record production in Germany. Factoring outstandings at the end of September 2024 were stable compared to the end of September 2023.

    On 31 October 2024, Crédit Agricole Leasing & Factoring announced that it had signed an agreement to acquire Merca Leasing in Germany.

    Specialised financial services’ results

    The revenues of Specialised Financial Services rose to €869 million in the third quarter of 2024, down slightly by -1.6% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Expenses stood at -€437 million, up +3.1% compared to the third quarter of 2023. The cost/income ratio stood at 48%, up +2.3 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023. Gross operating income thus stood at €433 million, down -5.9% compared to the third quarter of 2023. Cost of risk reached -€223 million, stable compared to the third quarter of 2023. Net income from equity-accounted entities rose significantly (x4.5 compared to the third quarter of 2023) to €23 million. Excluding the base effect39 related to the reorganisation of Mobility activities at CAPFM, the change was -20.7%. Net income on other assets stood at -€2 million, versus €57 million in the third quarter of 2023. Excluding the base effect39 related to the reorganisation of Mobility activities at CAPFM, the change was -52.5%. The division’s Net income Group share amounted to €172 million, down -15.6% compared to the same period in 2023, and down -7% excluding the base effect39.

    Over the first nine months of 2024, revenues for the Specialised Financial Services division fell by-4.1%, but rose by +7.8% excluding the base effect40 related to the reorganisation of Mobility activities at CAPFM, compared to the first nine months of 2023. This favourable trend was driven by a good performance in CAL&F (+8.5%) and by higher revenues for CAPFM excluding the base effect40 (+7,6%), benefiting from the scope effects linked to the strategic pivot around Mobility at CAPFM, which led to the 100% consolidation of Crédit Agricole Auto Bank from the second quarter of 2023 and of ALD and LeasePlan activities in six European countries, as well as the acquisition of a majority stake in the capital of Hiflow in the third quarter of 2023. Underlying costs excluding SRF increased by +8.9% compared to the first nine months of 2023. Expenses excluding SRF, the base effect40 and scope effects rose by +3.1%. The cost/income ratio stood at 51.2%, or +6.1 percentage points versus the same period in 2023; excluding the base effect40, the change was +1.3 percentage points. The cost of risk was down -4.9% compared to the first nine months of 2023, to -€653 million, and up +8.4% excluding the base effect40. This increase incorporated in particular the impact of scope effects. The contribution from equity-accounted entities was down -8.5% versus the same period in 2023, and down -35.9% excluding the base effect40, due to the full consolidation of Crédit Agricole Auto Bank in the second quarter of 2023, which was previously accounted for using the equity method. Net income on other assets amounted to -€3 million at the end of September 2024, compared to €81 million at the end of September 2023 (-€7 million excluding the base effect40). Net income Group share thus came to €502 million, down -21% compared to the first nine months of 2023, but up +5.4% excluding the base effect40 related to the reorganisation of Mobility activities at CAPFM.

    The business line contributed 8% to the underlying net income Group share of Crédit Agricole S.A.’s core businesses. (excluding the Corporate Centre division) at the end of September 2024 and 13% to underlying revenues excluding the Corporate Centre.

    At 30 September 2024, the equity allocated to the division was €6.8 billion and its risk-weighted assets were €71.8 billion.

    The underlying RoNE (return on normalised equity) stood at 9.0% for the first nine months of 2024.

    Personal Finance and Mobility results

    CAPFM revenues totalled €678 million in the third quarter of 2024, down -4.2% compared to the third quarter of 2023. The price effect remained negative in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter of 2023, but stabilised compared to the second quarter of 2024, thanks in particular to an improved production margin rate over the last few quarters (stable in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter of 2024, and up by +86 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2023). Expenses remained under control at -€338 million, up +2.4% compared to the same period in 2023. Gross operating income stood at €340 million, down -10%. The cost/income ratio stood at 49.8%, up +3.2 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023. The cost of risk stood at -€201 million, down -2.4% from the third quarter of 2023. The cost of risk/outstandings thus stood at 112 basis points41, an improvement of -16 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2023. The Non Performing Loans ratio was 4.5% at the end of June 2024, up +0.2 percentage point compared to the end of June 2024, while the coverage ratio reached 74.2%, down -1.6 percentage points compared to the end of June 2024. The contribution from equity-accounted entities rose sharply (x5.1) compared to the same period in 2023, and fell by -20.7% excluding the base effect related to the reorganisation of Mobility activities39. Net income on other assets amounted to -€2 million in the third quarter of 2024, compared to €57 million in the third quarter of 2023. Excluding the base effect39, net income on other assets of the third quarter of 203 amounted to -€4 million. As a result, net income Group share totalled €118 million in the third quarter of 2024, i.e. -20.9% compared to the same period the previous year. Excluding the base effect39, net income Group share was down -9.3%.

    In the first nine months of 2024, CAPFM’s revenues totalled €2,042 million, down -7.1% compared with the first nine months of 2023, but up +7.6% excluding the base effect related to the reorganisation of Mobility activities42. Revenues benefited from scope effects related to the strategic pivot around Mobility, leading to the full consolidation of Crédit Agricole Auto Bank from the second quarter of 2023 and the consolidation of the ALD and LeasePlan activities in six European countries, as well as the acquisition of a majority stake in the capital of Hiflow in the third quarter of 2023. Expenses excluding SRF stood at -€1,035 million, an increase of +9.9% on 2023. Expenses excluding SRF, excluding the base effect42 and scope effects, were up +2.2%. Gross operating income therefore came in at €1,007 million, which was a drop of -19% but an increase of +4.7% excluding the base effect42. The cost/income ratio stood at 50.7%, or +7.9 percentage points versus the same period in 2023. When restated for the base effect, the change was +2.1 percentage points. Cost of risk fell -7.3% compared with the first nine months of 2023 to -€591 million, but rose +6.8% when the base effect42 is excluded. This rise notably includes the impact of scope effects. The contribution from equity-accounted entities was down -5.4% versus the same period in 2023, and down -33.1% excluding the base effect42 related to the scope effects of Crédit Agricole Auto Bank, which was fully consolidated in the second quarter of 2023 having previously been accounted for using the equity method. Income on other assets fell -55.5%, or -63,4% excluding the base effect42. As a result, net income Group share stood at €349 million in the first nine months of 2024, i.e. -31.3% from the same period one year earlier. Excluding the base effect42, net income Group share was stable at -0.1% compared with the same period in 2023.

    Leasing & Factoring results

    CAL&F’s revenues totalled €192 million, up +8.5% compared with the third quarter of 2023. This increase was driven by all business lines and benefited from volume effects (increase in factored revenues and equipment leasing outstandings). Expenses remained under control with an increase of +4.8%, while the cost/income ratio stood at 51.6%, an improvement of -1.8 percentage points from the third quarter of 2023. Gross operating income rose +12.7% to €93 million, with a positive jaws effect of +3.7 percentage points. Cost of risk totalled -€22 million, up +25.1% compared with the same period in 2023, linked to economic conditions in the corporate market. Cost of risk/outstandings stood at 22 basis points41, down slightly from the third quarter of 2023. As a result, net income Group share was €54 million, down -1.8% compared with the third quarter of 2023.

    In the first nine months of 2024, revenues totalled €563 million, an increase of +8.5% compared with the first nine months of 2023. Costs excluding SRF increased by +5.7% to €298 million. Gross operating income rose sharply to €265 million, a +19.8% increase compared with the first nine months of 2023. The underlying cost/income ratio excluding SRF amounted to 53%, an improvement of -1.4 percentage points compared with the first nine months of 2023. Cost of risk was up compared with the same period of 2023 (+26.7%). The business line’s contribution to underlying net income Group share was €153 million, up +20.2% compared with the first nine months of 2023.

    Crédit Agricole S.A. Retail Banking activity

    Activity in Crédit Agricole S.A.’s Retail Banking business was solid during the quarter, with customer capture continuing at a good pace and an increasing number of customers taking out insurance policies. Home loan production in France is steadily recovering, while continuing to rise for corporate loans. Outside France, loan activity was dynamic.

    Retail banking activity in France

    In the third quarter of 2024, activity remained buoyant with the confirmed recovery in mortgage lending and the continued stabilisation of the mix of inflows.

    Gross customer capture for the quarter stood at 76,000 new customers and net customer capture came in at 9,700 customers. The equipment rate for car, multi-risk home, health, legal, all mobile phones or personal accident insurance rose by +0.3 percentage points to stand at 27.9% at end-September 2024.

    Loan production totalled €7.5 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of +11%. The third quarter of 2024 confirmed the recovery in home loan production (+17% compared to the third quarter of 2023 and +73% compared to the second quarter of 2023), boosted by the proactive pricing policy. The average production rate for home loans came to 3.38%, down -46 basis points from the second quarter of 2024 and -32 basis points year on year. The home loan stock rate improved by +5 basis points over the quarter and by +18 basis points year on year. The solid momentum continued in the corporate market (+16% year on year). Production for small businesses declined in a competitive market and challenging economic environment.

    Outstanding loans stood at €169 billion at end-September 2024, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of +0.4% and a year-on-year increase of +0.5% (of which +0.6% for home loans, +0.7% for loans to small businesses, +1.0% for consumer finance and -0.1% for corporate loans). Customer assets totalled €253.3 billion at end-September 2024, up +5.1% year on year, driven by interest-earning deposits and off-balance sheet funds. Customer assets also edged up +0.6% during the quarter. This was accompanied by the continued stabilisation of demand deposit volumes (+0.4% compared with end-June 2024) in a still-uncertain environment, as well as term deposits (-2.9% compared with end-June 2024). Off-balance sheet deposits benefited from a positive year-on-year market effect across all segments and positive net inflows in life insurance.

    Retail banking activity in Italy

    In the third quarter of 2024, CA Italy posted a gross customer capture of 43,000, while the customer base grew by around 13,000 customers.

    Loan outstandings at CA Italy stood at €61.3 billion43 at end-September 2024, up +3.0% compared with end-September 2023. This was despite the downturn in the Italian market44, mostly in the retail segment, which posted an increase in outstandings of +3.6%. Loan production, buoyed by the solid momentum in all markets, rose 7.5% compared with the third quarter of 2023. Home loan production remained steady (+7% compared with the second quarter of 2024), despite a -12% year-on-year decline due to a base effect linked to the success of the promotional campaign which ran in the third quarter of 2023. The loan stock rate was down -17 basis points on the second quarter of 2024, in line with the general trend in Italian market rates.

    Customer assets at end-September 2024 totalled €117.4 billion, up +3.7% compared with end-September 2023; on-balance sheet deposits were relatively unchanged from the previous year at +0.4%, while the cost of inflows decreased. Lastly, off-balance sheet deposits rose +9.2%, benefiting from a market effect and positive net inflows.

    CA Italy’s equipment rate in car, multi-risk home, health, legal, all mobile phones or personal accident insurance increased to 20.0%, up 1.7 percentage points compared with the third quarter of 2023.

    International Retail Banking activity excluding Italy

    For International Retail Banking excluding Italy, loan outstandings were up +4.2% at current exchange rates at end-September 2024 compared with end-September 2023 (+6.7% at constant exchange rates). Customer assets rose slightly by +0.4% over the same period at current exchange rates (+8.1% at constant exchange rates).

    In Poland in particular, loan outstandings increased by +11.8% versus September 2023 (+3.6% at constant exchange rates) and customer assets by +14% (+5.5% at constant exchange rates), against a backdrop of fierce competition for deposits. Loan production in Poland also remained strong, rising +32.4% compared with the third quarter of 2023 at current exchange rates (up +26% at constant exchange rates).

    In Egypt, loan outstandings rose -18.3% between end-September 2024 and end-September 2023 (+34.6% at constant exchange rates). Over the same period, inflows fell by -36.6% but were still up +4% at constant exchange rates.

    The surplus of deposits over loans in Poland and Egypt amounted to €1.6 billion at 30 September 2024, and totalled €3.2 billion including Ukraine.

    French retail banking results

    In the third quarter of 2024, LCL’s revenues stood at €979 million, down -1.7% compared with the third quarter of 2023 due to a base effect related to the reversal of the provision for Home Purchase Saving Plans in the third quarter of 202345. Excluding this base effect, revenues grew by +3.7% as a result of both net interest margin and fee and commission income. Net interest margin, excluding the Home Purchase Saving Plan base effect45, rose +2.3%45 year on year, benefiting from positive exceptional items related to the revaluation of equity investments. In addition, the increase in the cost of funding continued to weigh on the net interest margin, partially offset by the positive impact of gradual loan repricing and the favourable impact of the contribution of macro-hedging (virtually unchanged year on year). Fee and commission income was up +5.1% compared with the third quarter of 2023, driven by all activities.

    Expenses rose +3.2% to stand at -€608 million. The increase for the period is mainly related to the increase in property expenses and IT costs. The cost/income ratio stood at 62.1%, a rise of +2.9 percentage points compared with the third quarter of 2023. Gross operating income was down -8.8%, to €371 million (up +4.5% excluding the Home Purchase Saving Plan base effect45).

    The cost of risk was up +17% compared with the third quarter of 2023 to -€82 million (including +€18 million in cost of risk on performing loans, -€94 million in proven risk, and -€5 million in other risks). This increase was mainly due to corporate specific files and to the consumer finance segment. The cost of risk/outstandings remained under control, at 23 basis points. The coverage ratio stood at 59.8% at end-September 2024 (-1 percentage point compared with end-June 2024). The Non Performing Loans ratio reached 2.1% at end-September 2024, stable compared with end-June 2024 (+0.1 percentage point). As a result, net income Group share decreased by -19.2% compared with the third quarter of 2024 (-6.2% excluding the Home Purchase Saving Plan base effect45).

    In the first nine months of 2024, LCL revenues totalled €2,912 million, a +0.7% increase compared with the first nine months of 2023. The net interest margin was slightly up (+0.5%), benefiting from gradual loan repricing and the positive impact of macro-hedging, in the context of rising refinancing and funding costs, and positive exceptional items in the second and third quarters of 2024 (positive valuation effects on equity investments). Fee and commission income was up +0.9% compared with the first nine months of 2023 (impacted by the base effect of Image cheque in 202346, particularly in the life insurance and payment instrument segments. Expenses excluding SRF rose +3.4% over the period as a result of the increase in staff and IT costs, partially offset by a one-off impact on taxation and a base effect related to end-of-career allowances. The cost/income ratio excluding SRF stood at 61.8% (+1.6 percentage points compared with the first nine months of 2023). Gross operating income grew slightly by +0.5% year on year. Cost of risk increased by +44.3%, impacted by the rise in proven risk from corporates and recent consumer finance production. All in all, the business line’s contribution to net income Group share stood at €607 million, down -9.8% (-5% excluding Home Purchase Saving Plan base effect)

    In the end, the business line contributed 10% to the underlying net income Group share of Crédit Agricole S.A.’s core businesses. (excluding the Corporate Centre division) in the first nine months of 2024 and 14% to underlying revenues excluding the Corporate Centre.

    At 30 September 2024, the equity allocated to the business line stood at €5.3 billion and risk-weighted assets amounted to €55.3 billion. LCL’s underlying RoNE (return on normalised equity) stood at 14.4% for the first nine months of 2024.

    International Retail Banking results47

    In the third quarter of 2024, revenues for International Retail Banking totalled €1,006 million, falling slightly by -1.8% (+1.2% at constant exchange rates) compared with the third quarter of 2023. Operating expenses were under control at €519 million, an increase of +3.1% (+4.4% at constant exchange rates) Gross operating income consequently totalled €486 million, down -6.5% (-2.1% at constant exchange rates) for the period. Cost of risk amounted to -€59 million, down -51.1% compared with the third quarter of 2023 (-50.1% at constant exchange rates).

    All in all, net income Group share for CA Italy, CA Egypt, CA Poland and CA Ukraine amounted to €194 million in the third quarter of 2024, up +13.9% (-12.9% at constant exchange rates). This included a negative impact of -€40 million following the change in the corporate income tax rate in Ukraine.

    For the first nine months of 2024, International Retail Banking revenues rose by +3.9% to €3,090 million (+0.6% at constant exchange rates). Expenses excluding SRF and DGS stood at -€1,522 million, an increase of 2.1% compared with the first nine months of 2023. Gross operating income totalled €1,510 million, up +4.6% (+1.1% at constant exchange rates). Cost of risk fell by -41.0% (-23.0% at constant exchange rates) to -€213 million compared with the first nine months of 2023. In the end, net income Group share for International Retail Banking came to €678 million, versus €600 million in the first nine months of 2023, and included a negative impact of around -€40 million following the change in corporate income tax rate in Ukraine.

    In the first nine months of 2024, International Retail Banking contributed 12% to the underlying net income Group share of Crédit Agricole S.A.’s core businesses (excluding the Corporate Centre) and 15% to underlying revenues excluding the Corporate Centre.

    As at 30 September 2024, the capital allocated to International Retail Banking was €4.4 billion and risk-weighted assets totalled €46.3 billion.

    Results in Italy

    In the third quarter of 2024, revenues for Crédit Agricole Italy amounted to €764 million, down -2.5% compared with the third quarter of 2023. Revenues were impacted by a -2.5% decline in net interest margin compared with the third quarter of 2023 but were boosted by fee and commission income from assets under management, which remained relatively unchanged at +0.7%. Operating expenses were stable at 0.9% compared with the third quarter of 2023.

    Cost of risk amounted to -€48 million in the third quarter of 2024, down -43.4% from the third quarter of 2023, and corresponded almost entirely to provisions for proven risk. Cost of risk/outstandings48 stood at 44 basis points, an improvement of 6 basis points compared with the second quarter of 2024. The Non Performing Loans ratio improved compared with the first quarter of 2024 to stand at 3.0%, while the coverage ratio was 73.6% (+1.2 percentage points compared with the second quarter of 2024). Net income Group share for CA Italy was €164 million, down -1.3% compared with the third quarter of 2023.

    In the first nine months of 2024, revenues for Crédit Agricole Italy rose slightly by +0.8% to €2,323 million. Expenses excluding SRF and DGS (deposit guarantee fund in Italy) were under control at €1,161 million, a slight decrease of -0.2% compared with the first nine months of 2023. Gross operating income stood at €1,105 million, a slight increase of +0.3% compared with the first nine months of 2023. Cost of risk amounted to -€170 million, down -27.2% compared with the first nine months of 2023. As a result, CA Italy’s net income Group share totalled €497 million, an increase of +4.4% compared with the first nine months of 2023.

    CA Italy’s underlying RoNE (return on normalised equity) was 22.6% at 30 September 2024.

    International Retail Banking results – excluding Italy

    In the third quarter of 2024, revenues for International Retail Banking excluding Italy totalled €242 million, up +0.4% (+14.8% at constant exchange rates) compared with the third quarter of 2023. Revenues in Poland were up +22.2% compared with the third quarter of 2023 (+16.1% at constant exchange rates), boosted by a higher net interest margin and a strong upwards trend in fee and commission income. Revenues in Egypt were down (-19.9% compared with the third quarter of 2023) due to foreign exchange rate movements (depreciation of the Egyptian pound), but were particularly buoyant at constant exchange rates (+32.7%), benefiting from a sharp increase in the interest margin. Operating expenses for International Retail Banking excluding Italy amounted to €122 million, up +11.0% compared with the third quarter of 2023 (+17.8% at constant exchange rates). Gross operating income amounted to €120 million, a decrease of -8.5% (+11.8% at constant exchange rates) compared with the third quarter of 2023. Cost of risk amounted to -€11 million, down -68.9% (-68.9% at constant exchange rates). Furthermore, at end-September 2024, the coverage ratio for loan outstandings remained high in Poland and Egypt, at 121% and 139% respectively. In Ukraine, the local coverage ratio remains prudent (335%). All in all, the contribution of International Retail Banking excluding Italy to net income Group share was €30 million, down 49.1% compared with the third quarter of 2023.

    In the first nine months of 2024, revenues for International Retail Banking excluding Italy totalled €767 million, up +14.3% (+25.0% at constant exchange rates) compared with the first nine months of 2023, driven by the increase in net interest margin. Operating expenses amounted to -€361 million, up +10.2% compared with the first nine months of 2023 (+12.8% at constant exchange rates). The cost/income ratio at end-September 2024 was 47.1% (an improvement of 1.8 points on the cost/income ratio at end-September 2023). Thanks to strong growth in revenues, gross operating income came to €406 million, up 18.3% (+38.4% at constant exchange rates) from the first nine months of 2023. Cost of risk amounted to -€43 million, down -66.4% (-65.8% at constant exchange rates) compared with the first nine months of 2023. All in all, International Retail Banking excluding Italy contributed €182 million to net income Group share.

    The underlying RoNE (return on normalised equity) of Other IRB (excluding CA Italy) stood at 33.0% at 30 September 2024.

    At 30 September 2024, the entire Retail Banking business line contributed 22% to the underlying net income Group share of Crédit Agricole S.A.’s core businesses (excluding the Corporate Centre division) and 29% to underlying revenues excluding the Corporate Centre.

    At 30 September 2024, the division’s equity amounted to €9.7 billion. Its risk-weighted assets totalled €101.6 billion.

    Corporate Centre results

    The net income Group share of the Corporate Centre was -€161 million in the third quarter of 2024, down -€106 million compared with the third quarter of 2023. The negative contribution of the Corporate Centre division can be analysed by distinguishing between the “structural” contribution (-€161 million) and other items (+€1 million).
    The contribution of the “structural” component (-€161 million) decreased by -€138 million compared with the third quarter of 2023 and can be broken down into three types of activity:

    • The activities and functions of the Corporate Centre of the Crédit Agricole S.A. Parent Company. This contribution amounted to -€140 million in the third quarter of 2024, down -€75 million, notably due to a base effect of -€171 million related to reversals of provisions for Home Purchase Saving Plans recorded in the third quarter of 2023.
    • The business lines that are not part of the core businesses, such as CACIF (private equity), CA Immobilier, CATE and BforBank (equity-accounted). They contributed -€28 million in the third quarter of 2024, down -€65 million from the third quarter of 2023. This was due to the unfavourable impact of the revaluation of Banco BPM securities for -€35 million (+€5 million in the third quarter of 2024, against +€40 million in the third quarter of 2023), as well as a deterioration in the portfolio which pushed up the cost of potential risk (stages 1 and 2), particularly on financing guaranteed by Foncaris49
    • Group support functions. Their contribution amounted to +€7 million this quarter (+€3 million compared with the third quarter of 2023).

    The contribution of “other items” was up +€32 million compared with the third quarter of 2023.
    The “internal margins” effect at the time of the consolidation of the insurance activity at the Crédit Agricole level was accounted for through the Corporate Centre. Over the quarter, the impact of internal margins was -€211 million in revenues and +€211 million in expenses.

    In the first nine months of 2024, underlying net income Group share of the Corporate Centre division was -€506 million, down -€131 million compared with the first nine months of 2023. The structural component contributed -€513 million and other items of the division recorded a positive contribution of +€7 million in the first nine months.
    The “structural” component contribution was down -€2 million compared with the first nine months of 2023. It can be broken down into three types of activities:

    • The activities and functions of the Corporate Centre of the Crédit Agricole S.A. Parent Company. This contribution amounted to -€767 million in the first nine months of 2024, down -€55 million compared with the first nine months of 2023, including a base effect of -€171 million related to the reversal of the provision for Home Purchase Saving Plans recorded in the third quarter of 2023;
    • Business lines not attached to the core businesses, such as CACIF (private equity), CA Immobilier and BforBank: their contribution, at +€234 million in the first nine months of 2024, was up on the first nine months of 2023 (+€46 million), primarily due to the end of the SRF building-up period (-€77 million in the first half of 2023), as well as the impact of the valuation and dividend of Banco BPM securities for +€99 million;
    • The Group’s support functions: their contribution for the first nine months of 2024 was +€20 million, up +€7 million compared with the first nine months of 2023.

    The contribution of “other items” was down -€129 million compared with the first nine months of 2023.

    At 30 September 2024, risk-weighted assets stood at €29.6 billion.

    Financial strength

    Crédit Agricole Group

    At 30 September 2024, the phased-in Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of Crédit Agricole Group was 17.4%, an increase of +0.1 percentage point compared with end-June 2024. Therefore, the Crédit Agricole Group posted a substantial buffer of 7.6 percentage points between the level of its CET1 ratio and the 9.8% SREP requirement. The fully loaded CET1 ratio was 17.3%.

    During the third quarter 2024:

    • The CET1 ratio benefited from an impact of +25 basis points related to retained earnings.
    • Changes in risk-weighted assets related to business lines organic growth impacted the Group’s CET1 ratio by -27 basis points (see below).
    • The methodological and other effects have a favourable impact of +4 basis points and include the contribution of the capital increase reserved for employees and a favourable change in unrealised gains and/or losses.

    The phased-in Tier 1 ratio stood at 18.3%, while the phased-in total ratio was 21.0% at end-September 2024.

    The phased-in leverage ratio stood at 5.5%, remaining stable compared with end-June 2024, well above the regulatory requirement of 3.5%.

    Risk-weighted assets for the Crédit Agricole Group amounted to €636 billion, up +€8.2 billion compared with 30 June 2024. The change can be broken down by business line as follows: Retail Banking +€7.3 billion, Asset Gathering +€3.2 billion (including +€3.1 billion in Insurance equity-accounted value), Specialised Financial Services +€0.3 billion, Large Customers -€2.3 billion (benefiting from favourable foreign exchange and regulatory impacts for Crédit Agricole CIB) and Corporate Centre -€0.2 billion.

    Maximum Distributable Amount (MDA and L-MDA) trigger thresholds

    The transposition of Basel regulations into European law (CRD) introduced a restriction mechanism for distribution that applies to dividends, AT1 instruments and variable compensation. The Maximum Distributable Amount (MDA, the maximum sum a bank is allowed to allocate to distributions) principle aims to place limitations on distributions in the event the latter were to result in non-compliance with combined capital buffer requirements.

    The distance to the MDA trigger is the lowest of the respective distances to the SREP requirements in CET1 capital, Tier 1 capital and total capital.

    At 30 September 2024, Crédit Agricole Group posted a buffer of 670 basis points above the MDA trigger, i.e. €43 billion in CET1 capital.

    Failure to comply with the leverage ratio buffer requirement would result in a restriction of distributions and the calculation of a maximum distributable amount (L-MDA).

    At 30 September 2024, Crédit Agricole Group posted a buffer of 196 basis points above the L-MDA trigger, i.e. €42 billion in Tier 1 capital. At the Crédit Agricole Group level, it is the distance to the L-MDA trigger that determines the distance to distribution restriction.

    At 30 September 2024, Crédit Agricole S.A. posted a buffer of 280 basis points above the MDA trigger, i.e. €11 billion in CET1 capital. Crédit Agricole S.A. is not subject to the L-MDA requirement.

    The issuance of a new AT1 instrument carried out by Crédit Agricole S.A. on 2 October 2024, for a nominal amount of US$1.25 billion, has a positive impact of 18 basis points on the Tier 1 and Total capital ratios of Crédit Agricole Group, as well as a positive impact of 5 basis points on its leverage ratio. This issuance also has a positive impact of 28 basis points on the Tier 1 and Total capital ratios of Crédit Agricole S.A. Taking this issuance into account in the solvency ratios at 30 September 2024, Crédit Agricole Group would post a buffer of 688 basis points above the MDA trigger, i.e. €44 billion in CET1 capital, and 201 basis points above the L-MDA trigger, i.e. €43 billion in Tier 1 capital. Crédit Agricole S.A. would post a buffer of 308 basis points above the MDA trigger, i.e. €12 billion in CET1 capital.

    TLAC

    Crédit Agricole Group must comply with the following TLAC ratio requirements at all times:

    • a TLAC ratio above 18% of risk-weighted assets (RWA), plus – in accordance with EU directive CRD 5 – a combined capital buffer requirement (including, for Crédit Agricole Group, a 2.5% capital conservation buffer, a 1% G-SIB buffer, the counter-cyclical buffer set at 0.77% and the 0.01% systemic risk buffer for CA Group at 30 September 2024). Considering the combined capital buffer requirement, Crédit Agricole Group must adhere to a TLAC ratio of above 22.3%;
    • a TLAC ratio of above 6.75% of the Leverage Ratio Exposure (LRE).

    The Crédit Agricole Group’s 2025 target is to maintain a TLAC ratio greater than or equal to 26% of RWA excluding eligible senior preferred debt.

    At 30 September 2024, Crédit Agricole Group’s TLAC ratio stood at 27.3% of RWA and 8.2% of leverage ratio exposure, excluding eligible senior preferred debt50, which is well above the requirements. The TLAC ratio, expressed as a percentage of risk weighted assets, increased by 20 basis points over the quarter, due to equity and eligible items increasing more rapidly than risk-weighted assets over the period. Expressed as a percentage of leverage ratio exposure (LRE), the TLAC ratio was up 20 basis points compared with June 2024.

    The Group thus has a TLAC ratio excluding eligible senior preferred debt that is 510 basis points higher, i.e. €32 billion, than the current requirement of 22.3% of RWA.

    At end-September 2024, €10.4 billion equivalent had been issued in the market (senior non-preferred and Tier 2 debt) as well as €1.25 billion of AT1. The amount of Crédit Agricole Group senior non-preferred securities taken into account in the calculation of the TLAC ratio was €35.2 billion.

    MREL

    The required minimum levels are set by decisions of resolution authorities and then communicated to each institution, then revised periodically. At 30 September 2024, Crédit Agricole Group has to meet a minimum total MREL requirement of:

    • 22.01% of RWA, plus – in accordance with EU directive CRD 5 – a combined capital buffer requirement (including, for Crédit Agricole Group, a 2.5% capital conservation buffer, a 1% G-SIB buffer, the counter-cyclical buffer set at 0.77% and the 0.01% systemic risk buffer for CA Group at 30 September 2024). Considering the combined capital buffer requirement, the Crédit Agricole Group has to meet to a total MREL ratio of above 26.3%;
    • 6.25% of the LRE.

    At 30 September 2024, the Crédit Agricole Group had a total MREL ratio of 32.9% of RWA and 9.8% of leverage exposure, well above the requirement.

    An additional subordination requirement (“subordinated MREL”) is also determined by the resolution authorities and expressed as a percentage of RWA and LRE. At 30 September 2024, this subordinated MREL requirement for the Crédit Agricole Group was:

    • 18.25% of RWA, plus a combined capital buffer requirement. Considering the combined capital buffer requirement, the Crédit Agricole Group has to meet to a subordinated MREL ratio of above 22.5%;
    • 6.25% of leverage exposure.

    At 30 September 2024, Crédit Agricole Group had a subordinated MREL ratio of 27.3% of RWA and 8.2% of leverage exposure, well above the requirement.

    The distance to the maximum distributable amount trigger related to MREL requirements (M-MDA) is the lowest of the respective distances to the MREL, subordinated MREL and TLAC requirements expressed in RWA.

    At 30 September 2024, Crédit Agricole Group had a buffer of 480 basis points above the M-MDA trigger, i.e. €31 billion in CET1 capital; the distance to the M-MDA trigger corresponds to the distance between the subordinated MREL ratio and the corresponding requirement.

    Crédit Agricole S.A.

    At 30 September 2024, Crédit Agricole S.A.’s solvency ratio was higher than the Medium-Term Plan target, with a phased-in Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 11.7%, up +0.1 percentage point from end-June 2024. Crédit Agricole S.A. therefore had a comfortable buffer of 3.1 percentage points between the level of its CET1 ratio and the 8.6% SREP requirement. The fully loaded CET1 ratio was 11.7%.

    During the third quarter 2024:

    • The CET1 ratio benefited this quarter from a positive impact of +19 basis points linked to retained earnings. This impact corresponds to net income Group share net of AT1 coupons (impact of +38 basis points) and of the distribution of 50% of earnings, i.e. a provision for dividends of 25 euro cents per share in third quarter 2024 (-19 basis points).
    • Changes in risk-weighted assets related to business line organic growth impacted the CET1 ratio by
      -14 basis points, of which -5 basis points in the Insurance business line (increase in the equity-accounted value over the quarter).
    • Methodological and other effects had a positive impact of +10 basis points and included the contribution of the capital increase reserved for employees and a favourable trend in unrealised gains and/or losses.

    The phased-in leverage ratio was 3.8% at end-September 2024, stable compared to end-June 2024 and above the 3% requirement.

    The phased-in Tier 1 ratio stood at 13.2% and the phased-in total ratio at 17.3% this quarter.

    Risk weighted assets for Crédit Agricole S.A. amounted to €402 billion at end of September 2024, up by +€3.1 billion compared to 30 June 2024. The change can be broken down by core business line as follows:

    • The Retail Banking divisions showed an increase of +€1.7 billion, particularly in France.
    • Asset Gathering posted an increase of +€3.2 billion, including +€3.1 billion in RWA for Insurance (increase in the equity-accounted value in the third quarter of 2024).
    • Specialised Financial Services remained stable at +€0.2 billion.
    • Large Customers recorded a decrease in risk-weighted assets of -€2.4 billion over the quarter, mainly as a result of foreign exchange and regulatory impacts in CIB.
    • The Corporate Centre divisions posted an increase in risk-weighted assets of +€0.4 billion.

    Liquidity and Funding

    Liquidity is measured at Crédit Agricole Group level.

    In order to provide simple, relevant and auditable information on the Group’s liquidity position, the banking cash balance sheet’s stable resources surplus is calculated quarterly.

    The banking cash balance sheet is derived from Crédit Agricole Group’s IFRS financial statements. It is based on the definition of a mapping table between the Group’s IFRS financial statements and the sections of the cash balance sheet and whose definition is commonly accepted in the marketplace. It relates to the banking scope, with insurance activities being managed in accordance with their own specific regulatory constraints.

    Further to the breakdown of the IFRS financial statements in the sections of the cash balance sheet, netting calculations are carried out. They relate to certain assets and liabilities that have a symmetrical impact in terms of liquidity risk. Deferred taxes, fair value impacts, collective impairments, short-selling transactions and other assets and liabilities were netted for a total of €68 billion at end-September 2024. Similarly, €157 billion in repos/reverse repos were eliminated insofar as these outstandings reflect the activity of the securities desk carrying out securities borrowing and lending operations that offset each other. Other nettings calculated in order to build the cash balance sheet – for an amount totalling €181 billion at end September 2024 – relate to derivatives, margin calls, adjustment/settlement/liaison accounts and to non-liquid securities held by Corporate and Investment banking (CIB) and are included in the “Customer-related trading assets” section.

    Note that deposits centralised with Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations are not netted in order to build the cash balance sheet; the amount of centralised deposits (€105 billion at end-September 2024) is booked to assets under “Customer-related trading assets” and to liabilities under “Customer-related funds”.

    In a final stage, other restatements reassign outstandings that accounting standards allocate to one section, when they are economically related to another. As such, Senior issuances placed through the banking networks as well as financing by the European Investment Bank, the Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations and other refinancing transactions of the same type backed by customer loans, which accounting standards would classify as “Medium long-term market funds”, are reclassified as “Customer-related funds”.

    Medium to long-term repurchase agreements are also included in “Long-term market funds”.

    Finally, the CIB’s counterparties that are banks with which we have a commercial relationship are considered as customers in the construction of the cash balance sheet.

    Standing at €1,719 billion at 30 September 2024, the Group’s banking cash balance sheet shows a surplus of stable funding resources over stable application of funds of €188 billion, down -€10 billion compared with end-June 2024.

    Total T-LTRO 3 outstandings for Crédit Agricole Group amounted to €0.7 billion at 30 September 2024.

    Furthermore, given the excess liquidity, the Group remained in a short-term lending position at 30 September 2024 (central bank deposits exceeding the amount of short-term net debt).

    Medium-to-long-term market resources were €263 billion at 30 September 2024, up slightly from end-June 2024.

    They included senior secured debt of €76 billion, senior preferred debt of €125 billion, senior non-preferred debt of €37 billion and Tier 2 securities amounting to €25 billion.

    The Group’s liquidity reserves, at market value and after haircuts, amounted to €466 billion at 30 September 2024, down -€12 billion compared to 30 June 2024.

    They covered short-term net debt more than two times over (excluding the replacements with Central Banks).

    The decrease in liquidity reserves was mainly due to:

    • The decrease in Central Bank deposits for -€15 billion;
    • The decrease in eligible claims to Central Bank (mainly due to the temporary removal of TRICP credit claims with an internal rating) for -€3 billion;
    • The increase in the securities portfolio for +€6 billion (+€3 billion of HQLA securities/+€3 billion of non-HQLA securities).

    Crédit Agricole Group also continued its efforts to maintain immediately available reserves (after recourse to ECB financing). Central bank eligible non-HQLA assets after haircuts amounted to €152 billion.

    Credit institutions are subject to a threshold for the LCR ratio, set at 100% on 1 January 2018.

    At 30 September 2024, the end of month LCR ratios were 147% for Crédit Agricole Group (representing a surplus of €97.7 billion) and 152% for Crédit Agricole S.A. (representing a surplus of €92.2 billion). They were higher than the Medium-Term Plan target (around 110%).

    In addition, the NSFR of Crédit Agricole Group and Crédit Agricole S.A. exceeded 100%, in accordance with the regulatory requirement applicable since 28 June 2021 and above the Medium-Term Plan target (>100%).

    The Group continues to follow a prudent policy as regards medium-to-long-term refinancing, with a very diversified access to markets in terms of investor base and products.

    At 30 September 2024, the Group’s main issuers raised the equivalent of €51 billion51,52in medium-to-long-term debt on the markets, 47% of which was issued by Crédit Agricole S.A. In particular, the following amounts are noted for the Group:

    • Crédit Agricole CIB issued €17.9 billion in structured format, including €1.2 billion in Green Bond format;
    • Crédit Agricole Personal Finance & Mobility issued €2 billion equivalent in EMTN issuances through Crédit Agricole Auto Bank (CAAB) and €0.7 billion equivalent in securitisations;
    • CA Italy issued two senior secured debt issuances for a total of €1.5 billion, of which €500 million in Green Bond format;
    • Crédit Agricole next bank (Switzerland) issued two tranches in senior secured format for a total of 200 million Swiss francs, of which 100 million Swiss francs in Green Bond format;
    • Crédit Agricole Assurances issued a €750 million Tier 2 10-year bullet subordinated bond and made a tender offer on two subordinated perpetual issuances (FR0012444750 & FR0012222297) for €788.5 million in September.

    The Group’s medium-to-long-term financing can be broken down into the following categories:

    • €9.0 billion in secured financing;
    • €22.0 billion in plain-vanilla unsecured financing;
    • €17.9 billion in structured financing;
    • €2.3 billion in long-term institutional deposits and CDs.

    In addition, €11.7 billion was raised through off-market issuances, split as follows:

    • €9.5 billion from banking networks (the Group’s retail banking or external networks);
    • €0.65 billion from supranational organisations or financial institutions;
    • €1.6 billion from national refinancing vehicles (including the credit institution CRH).

    At 30 September 2024, Crédit Agricole S.A. raised the equivalent of €24.1 billion on the market53,54representing 93% of its 2024 refinancing programme:

    The bank raised the equivalent of €24.1 billion, of which €7.3 billion in senior non-preferred debt and €3.1 billion in Tier 2 debt, as well as €7.2 billion in senior preferred debt and €6.5 billion in senior secured debt at end-September. The financing comprised a variety of formats and currencies, including:

    • €6.3 billion55;
    • 6.35 billion US dollars (€5.8 billion equivalent);
    • 1.1 billion pounds sterling (€1.3 billion equivalent);
    • 230 billion Japanese yen (€1.4 billion equivalent);
    • 0.8 billion Swiss francs (€0.8 billion equivalent);
    • 1.75 billion Australian dollars (€1.1 billion equivalent);
    • 7 billion renminbi (€0.9 billion equivalent).

    At end-September, Crédit Agricole S.A. had issued 64% of its funding plan in currencies other than the euro56,57.

    In addition, on 2 January 2024, Crédit Agricole S.A. issued a PerpNC6 AT1 bond for €1.25 billion at an initial rate of 6.5% and, on 24 September 2024, a PerpNC10 AT1 bond for $1.25 billion at an initial rate of 6.7%.

    Appendix 1 – Specific items, Crédit Agricole Group et Crédit Agricole S.A.

    Crédit Agricole Group – Specific items

      Q3-24 Q3-23 9M-24 9M-23
    €m Gross
    impact*    		 Impact on
    Net income    		 Gross
    impact*    		 Impact on
    Net income    		 Gross
    impact*    		 Impact on
    Net income    		 Gross
    impact*    		 Impact on
    Net income
                     
    DVA (LC) 4 3 2 2 46 34 (21) (15)
    Loan portfolio hedges (LC) (1) (1) (2) (1) 6 5 (26) (19)
    Home Purchase Savings Plans (LCL) – – 52 38 1 1 52 38
    Home Purchase Savings Plans (CC) – – 230 171 (0) (0) 230 171
    Home Purchase Savings Plans (RB) – – 118 88 63 47 118 88
    Mobility activities reorganisation (SFS) – – 1 0 – – 300 214
    Check Image Exchange penalty (CC) – – – – – – 42 42
    Check Image Exchange penalty (LCL) – – – – – – 21 21
    Check Image Exchange penalty (RB) – – – – – – 42 42
    Total impact on revenues 3 2 402 298 117 87 758 581
    Degroof Petercam integration costs (AG) (8) (6) – – (14) (10) – –
    ISB integration costs (LC) (26) (14) – – (70) (37) – –
    Mobility activities reorganisation (SFS) – – – – – – (18) (13)
    Total impact on operating expenses (34) (20) – – (84) (47) (18) (13)
    Mobility activities reorganisation (SFS) – – – – – – (85) (61)
    Provision for risk Ukraine (IRB) – – – – (20) (20) – –
    Total impact on cost of credit risk – – – – (20) (20) (85) (61)
    Mobility activities reorganisation (SFS) – – (26) (26) – – (39) (39)
    Total impact equity-accounted entities – – (26) (26) – – (39) (39)
    Degroof Petercam aquisition costs (AG) (3) (2) – – (23) (17) – –
    Mobility activities reorganisation (SFS) – – 61 45 – – 89 57
    Total impact on Net income on other assets (3) (2) 61 45 (23) (17) 89 57
                     
    Total impact of specific items (34) (20) 436 317 (10) 3 705 525
    Asset gathering (11) (8) – – (37) (27) – –
    French Retail banking – – 170 126 65 48 233 189
    International Retail banking – – – – (20) (20) – –
    Specialised financial services – – 35 19 – – 247 159
    Large customers (23) (12) 1 0 (18) 1 (47) (35)
    Corporate centre – – 230 171 (0) (0) 272 213
    * Impact before tax and before minority interests                

    Crédit Agricole S.A. – Specific Items

      Q3-24 Q3-23 9M-24 9M-23
    €m Gross
    impact*    		 Impact on
    Net income    		 Gross
    impact*    		 Impact on
    Net income    		 Gross
    impact*    		 Impact on
    Net income    		 Gross
    impact*    		 Impact on
    Net income
                     
    DVA (LC) 4 3 2 2 46 33 (21) (15)
    Loan portfolio hedges (LC) (1) (1) (2) (1) 6 5 (26) (19)
    Home Purchase Savings Plans (FRB) – – 52 37 3 2 52 37
    Home Purchase Savings Plans (CC) – – 230 171 (2) (1) 230 171
    Mobility activities reorganisation (SFS) – – 1 0.5 – – 300 214
    Check Image Exchange penalty (CC) – – – – – – 42 42
    Check Image Exchange penalty (LCL) – – – – – – 21 20
    Total impact on revenues 3 2 284 209 53 39 598 450
    Degroof Petercam integration costs (AG) (8) (6) – – (14) (10) – –
    ISB integration costs (LC) (26) (14) – – (70) (37) – –
    Mobility activities reorganisation (SFS) – – – – – – (18) (13)
    Total impact on operating expenses (34) (19) – – (84) (47) (18) (13)
    Provision for risk Ukraine (IRB) – – – – (20) (20) – –
    Mobility activities reorganisation (SFS) – – – – – – (85) (61)
    Total impact on cost of credit risk – – – – (20) (20) (85) (61)
                     
    Mobility activities reorganisation (SFS) – – (26) (26) – – (39) (39)
    Total impact equity-accounted entities – – (26) (26) – – (39) (39)
    Degroof Petercam aquisition costs (AG) (3) (2) – – (23) (17) – –
    Mobility activities reorganisation (SFS) – – 61 45 – – 89 57
    Total impact Net income on other assets (3) (2) 61 45 (23) (17) 89 57
                     
    Total impact of specific items (34) (20) 318 227 (73) (45) 545 394
    Asset gathering (11) (8) – – (37) (26) – –
    French Retail banking – – 52 37 3 2 73 57
    International Retail banking – – – – (20) (20) – –
    Specialised financial services – – 35 19 – – 247 159
    Large customers (23) (12) 1 0 (18) 1 (47) (34)
    Corporate centre – – 230 171 (2) (1) 272 213
    * Impact before tax and before minority interests          

    Appendix 2 – Crédit Agricole Group: income statement by business line

    Crédit Agricole Group – Results by business line, Q3-23 and Q3-24

      Q3-24 (stated)
    €m RB LCL IRB AG SFS LC CC Total
                     
    Revenues 3,266 979 1,029 1,857 869 2,054 (842) 9,213
    Operating expenses excl. SRF (2,409) (608) (539) (868) (437) (1,240) 511 (5,590)
    SRF – – – – – – – –
    Gross operating income 857 371 490 989 433 814 (331) 3,623
    Cost of risk (364) (82) (60) (13) (223) (19) (40) (801)
    Equity-accounted entities 0 – – 33 23 6 – 61
    Net income on other assets 0 0 0 (3) (2) (0) (2) (5)
    Income before tax 493 290 430 1,006 231 801 (372) 2,877
    Tax (122) (66) (176) (156) (42) (234) 210 (587)
    Net income from discont’d or held-for-sale ope. – – – – – – – –
    Net income 371 224 254 850 189 566 (162) 2,291
    Non controlling interests (1) (0) (40) (128) (17) (35) 10 (211)
    Net income Group Share 371 223 214 722 172 531 (153) 2,080
      Q3-23 (stated)
    €m RB LCL IRB AG SFS LC CC Total
                     
    Revenues 3,345 996 1,046 1,657 883 1,888 (567) 9,249
    Operating expenses excl. SRF (2,328) (589) (522) (718) (424) (1,139) 454 (5,265)
    SRF – – – – – – – –
    Gross operating income 1,018 407 524 939 460 749 (113) 3,984
    Cost of risk (254) (70) (126) (0) (224) (13) (6) (693)
    Equity-accounted entities 1 – 1 24 5 6 0 37
    Net income on other assets 0 18 1 (5) 57 (2) (0) 69
    Income before tax 765 355 400 958 298 740 (119) 3,397
    Tax (178) (79) (118) (221) (77) (203) 65 (810)
    Net income from discont’d or held-for-sale ope. (0) – 2 – (0) – – 2
    Net income 587 277 284 737 220 537 (53) 2,588
    Non controlling interests (0) (0) (42) (110) (17) (39) 4 (204)
    Net income Group Share 587 277 242 628 204 497 (49) 2,384

    Crédit Agricole Group – Results by business line, 9M-24 et 9M-23

      9M-24 (stated)
    €m RB LCL IRB AG SFS LC CC Total
                     
    Revenues 9,834 2,912 3,161 5,596 2,605 6,544 (2,407) 28,244
    Operating expenses excl. SRF (7,453) (1,801) (1,637) (2,435) (1,333) (3,741) 1,535 (16,866)
    SRF – – – – – – – –
    Gross operating income 2,381 1,111 1,523 3,161 1,272 2,803 (872) 11,378
    Cost of risk (1,056) (295) (219) (18) (653) (25) (59) (2,324)
    Equity-accounted entities 7 – – 94 83 20 – 203
    Net income on other assets 3 5 0 (23) (3) 2 (3) (19)
    Income before tax 1,335 820 1,305 3,214 699 2,800 (935) 9,238
    Tax (313) (185) (436) (658) (138) (717) 343 (2,104)
    Net income from discontinued or held-for-sale operations – – – – – – – –
    Net income 1,022 635 869 2,557 560 2,083 (592) 7,134
    Non controlling interests (1) (0) (129) (364) (59) (104) 15 (643)
    Net income Group Share 1,021 635 739 2,193 502 1,979 (577) 6,491
      9M-23 (stated)
    €m RB LCL IRB AG SFS LC CC Total
                     
    Revenues 10,032 2,891 3,040 5,144 2,717 5,844 (1,946) 27,722
    Operating expenses excl. SRF (7,217) (1,742) (1,542) (2,148) (1,224) (3,298) 1,389 (15,782)
    SRF (111) (44) (40) (6) (29) (312) (77) (620)
    Gross operating income 2,704 1,105 1,458 2,989 1,465 2,234 (634) 11,321
    Cost of risk (831) (205) (366) (1) (686) (81) (8) (2,179)
    Equity-accounted entities 9 – 1 73 90 17 – 190
    Net income on other assets 6 21 1 (5) 81 3 (1) 107
    Income before tax 1,887 921 1,095 3,057 950 2,173 (643) 9,438
    Tax (467) (217) (321) (696) (254) (561) 222 (2,293)
    Net income from discontinued or held-for-sale operations (0) – 7 1 (0) – – 7
    Net income 1,421 704 781 2,361 696 1,612 (421) 7,153
    Non controlling interests (1) (0) (121) (343) (61) (93) (0) (619)
    Net income Group Share 1,420 704 660 2,018 635 1,519 (421) 6,534

    Appendix 3 – Crédit Agricole S.A.:   Results by business line

    Crédit Agricole S.A. – Results by business line, Q3-24 et Q3-23

      Q3-24 (stated)
    €m AG LC SFS FRB (LCL) IRB CC Total
                   
    Revenues 1,870 2,054 869 979 1,006 (290) 6,487
    Operating expenses excl. SRF (868) (1,240) (437) (608) (519) (17) (3,689)
    SRF – – – – – – –
    Gross operating income 1,002 814 433 371 486 (307) 2,799
    Cost of risk (13) (19) (223) (82) (59) (37) (433)
    Equity-accounted entities 33 6 23 – – (19) 42
    Net income on other assets (3) (0) (2) 0 0 0 (4)
    Income before tax 1,019 800 231 290 427 (363) 2,404
    Tax (157) (234) (42) (66) (176) 199 (476)
    Net income from discontinued or held-for-sale operations – – – – – – –
    Net income 862 566 189 224 252 (164) 1,928
    Non controlling interests (135) (46) (17) (10) (58) 4 (262)
    Net income Group Share 728 520 172 214 194 (161) 1,666
      Q3-23 (stated)
    €m AG LC SFS FRB (LCL) IRB CC Total
                   
    Revenues 1,656 1,888 883 996 1,024 (103) 6,343
    Operating expenses excl. SRF (718) (1,139) (424) (589) (504) (2) (3,376)
    SRF – – – – – – –
    Gross operating income 937 748 460 407 520 (105) 2,967
    Cost of risk (0) (13) (224) (70) (121) (2) (429)
    Equity-accounted entities 24 6 5 – 1 (12) 23
    Net income on other assets (5) (2) 57 18 1 (0) 69
    Income before tax 956 739 298 355 401 (119) 2,630
    Tax (221) (203) (77) (79) (118) 65 (633)
    Net income from discontinued or held-for-sale operations – – (0) – 2 – 2
    Net income 736 536 220 277 285 (55) 1,999
    Non controlling interests (114) (48) (17) (12) (60) 0 (251)
    Net income Group Share 621 488 204 264 225 (55) 1,748

    Crédit Agricole S.A. – Results by business line, 9M-24 et 9M-23

      9M-24 (stated)
    €m AG LC SFS FRB (LCL) IRB CC Total
                   
    Revenues 5,603 6,543 2,605 2,912 3,090 (665) 20,089
    Operating expenses excl. SRF (2,435) (3,741) (1,333) (1,801) (1,580) (88) (10,978)
    SRF – – – – – – –
    Gross operating income 3,168 2,802 1,272 1,111 1,510 (752) 9,111
    Cost of risk (18) (25) (653) (295) (213) (53) (1,256)
    Equity-accounted entities 94 20 83 – – (65) 132
    Net income on other assets (23) 2 (3) 5 0 24 5
    Change in value of goodwill – – – – – – –
    Income before tax 3,221 2,800 699 820 1,297 (846) 7,991
    Tax (659) (717) (138) (185) (435) 343 (1,790)
    Net income from discontinued or held-for-sale operations – – – – – – –
    Net income 2,563 2,083 560 635 862 (503) 6,201
    Non controlling interests (382) (147) (59) (28) (184) (3) (803)
    Net income Group Share 2,180 1,936 502 607 678 (506) 5,397
      9M-23 (stated)
    €m AG LC SFS FRB (LCL) IRB CC Total
                   
    Revenues 5,133 5,844 2,717 2,891 2,975 (421) 19,140
    Operating expenses excl. SRF (2,148) (3,298) (1,224) (1,742) (1,491) (20) (9,922)
    SRF (6) (312) (29) (44) (40) (77) (509)
    Gross operating income 2,979 2,234 1,465 1,105 1,444 (519) 8,709
    Cost of risk (1) (81) (686) (205) (362) (2) (1,338)
    Equity-accounted entities 73 17 90 – 2 (45) 136
    Net income on other assets (5) 3 81 21 1 (0) 102
    Change in value of goodwill – – – – – – –
    Income before tax 3,047 2,173 950 921 1,085 (566) 7,609
    Tax (699) (561) (254) (217) (320) 218 (1,832)
    Net income from discontinued or held-for-sale operations 1 – (0) – 7 – 7
    Net income 2,349 1,612 696 704 772 (348) 5,785
    Non controlling interests (353) (125) (61) (31) (172) (27) (771)
    Net income Group Share 1,996 1,486 635 673 600 (375) 5,014

    Appendix 4 – Data per share

    Crédit Agricole S.A. – Earnings p/share, net book value p/share and RoTE
    (€m)   Q3-2024 Q3-2023   9M-24 9M-23
                 
    Net income Group share – stated   1,666 1,748   5,397 5,014
    – Interests on AT1, including issuance costs, before tax   (130) (136)   (351) (371)
    – Foreign exchange impact on reimbursed AT1   (19) –   (266) –
    NIGS attributable to ordinary shares – stated [A] 1,517 1,612   4,780 4,643
    Average number shares in issue, excluding treasury shares (m) [B] 3,031 3,043   3,007 3,031
    Net earnings per share – stated [A]/[B] 0.50 € 0.53 €   1.59 € 1.53 €
    Underlying net income Group share (NIGS)   1,686 1,520   5,442 4,620
    Underlying NIGS attributable to ordinary shares [C] 1,537 1,384   4,825 4,249
    Net earnings per share – underlying [C]/[B] 0.51 € 0.46 €   1.60 € 1.40 €
                 
                 
    (€m)         30/09/2024 30/09/2023
    Shareholder’s equity Group share         71,386 69,416
    – AT1 issuances         (6,102) (7,235)
    – Unrealised gains and losses on OCI – Group share         1,042 1,644
    Net book value (NBV), not revaluated, attributable to ordin. sh. [D]       66,326 63,825
    – Goodwill & intangibles* – Group share         (17,778) (17,255)
    Tangible NBV (TNBV), not revaluated attrib. to ordinary sh. [E]       48,548 46,570
    Total shares in issue, excluding treasury shares (period end, m) [F]       3,040 3,052
    NBV per share , after deduction of dividend to pay (€) [D]/[F]       21.8 € 20.9 €
    TNBV per share, after deduction of dividend to pay (€) [G]=[E]/[F]       16.0 € 15.3 €
    * including goodwill in the equity-accounted entities            
                 
    (€m)         9M-24 9M-23
    Net income Group share – stated [K]       5,397 5,014
    Impairment of intangible assets [L]       0 0
    IFRIC [M]       -110 -542
    Stated NIGS annualised [N] = ([K]-[L]-[M])*2+[M]       7,233 6,866
    Interests on AT1, including issuance costs, before tax, foreign exchange impact, annualised [O]       -734 -495
    Stated result adjusted [P] = [N]+[O]       6,499 6,371
    Tangible NBV (TNBV), not revaluated attrib. to ord. sh. – avg *** (3) [J]       45,219 43,200
    Stated ROTE adjusted (%) = [P] / [J]       14.4% 14.7%
    Underlying Net income Group share [Q]       5,442 4,620
    Underlying NIGS annualised [R] = ([Q]-[M])*2+[M]       7,293 6,341
    Underlying NIGS adjusted [S] = [R]+[O]       6,559 5,846
    Underlying ROTE adjusted(%) = [S] / [J]       14.5% 13.5%
    *** including assumption of dividend for the current exercise         0.0%

    (1) Underlying: see appendixes for more details on specific items
    (2) Underlying ROTE calculated on the basis of an annualised underlying net income Group share and linearised IFRIC costs over the year
    (3) Average of the NTBV not revalued attributable to ordinary shares, calculated between 31/12/2023 and 30/09/2024 (line [E]), restated with an assumption of dividend for current exercises

    Alternative Performance Indicators58

    NBV Net Book Value (not revalued)
    The Net Book Value not revalued corresponds to the shareholders’ equity Group share from which the amount of the AT1 issues, the unrealised gains and/or losses on OCI Group share and the pay-out assumption on annual results have been deducted.

    NBV per share Net Book Value per share – NTBV Net Tangible Book Value per share
    One of the methods for calculating the value of a share. This represents the Net Book Value divided by the number of shares in issue at end of period, excluding treasury shares.

    Net Tangible Book Value per share represents the Net Book Value after deduction of intangible assets and goodwill, divided by the number of shares in issue at end of period, excluding treasury shares.

    EPS Earnings per Share
    This is the net income Group share, from which the AT1 coupon has been deducted, divided by the average number of shares in issue excluding treasury shares. It indicates the portion of profit attributable to each share (not the portion of earnings paid out to each shareholder, which is the dividend). It may decrease, assuming the net income Group share remains unchanged, if the number of shares increases.

    Cost/income ratio
    The cost/income ratio is calculated by dividing operating expenses by revenues, indicating the proportion of revenues needed to cover operating expenses.

    Cost of risk/outstandings
    Calculated by dividing the cost of credit risk (over four quarters on a rolling basis) by outstandings (over an average of the past four quarters, beginning of the period). It can also be calculated by dividing the annualised cost of credit risk for the quarter by outstandings at the beginning of the quarter. Similarly, the cost of risk for the period can be annualised and divided by the average outstandings at the beginning of the period.

    Since the first quarter of 2019, the outstandings taken into account are the customer outstandings, before allocations to provisions.

    The calculation method for the indicator is specified each time the indicator is used.

    Doubtful loan
    A doubtful loan is a loan in default. The debtor is considered to be in default when at least one of the following two conditions has been met:

    • a payment generally more than 90 days past due, unless specific circumstances point to the fact that the delay is due to reasons independent of the debtor’s financial situation.
    • the entity believes that the debtor is unlikely to settle its credit obligations unless it avails itself of certain measures such as enforcement of collateral security right.

    Impaired loan
    Loan which has been provisioned due to a risk of non-repayment.

    MREL
    The MREL (Minimum Requirement for Own Funds and Eligible Liabilities) ratio is defined in the European “Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive” (BRRD). This Directive establishes a framework for the resolution of banks throughout the European Union, with the aim to provide resolution authorities with shared instruments and powers to pre-emptively tackle banking crises, preserve financial stability and reduce taxpayers’ exposure to losses. Directive (EU) 2019/879 of 20 May 2019 known as “BRRD2” amended the BRRD and was transposed into French law by Order 2020-1636 of 21 December 2020.

    The MREL ratio corresponds to an own funds and eligible liabilities buffer required to absorb losses in the event of resolution. Under BRRD2, the MREL ratio is calculated as the amount of eligible capital and liabilities expressed as a percentage of risk weighted assets (RWA), as well as a leverage ratio exposure (LRE). Are eligible for the numerator of the total MREL ratio the Group’s regulatory capital, as well as eligible liabilities issued by the corporate centre and the Crédit Agricole network affiliated entities, i.e. subordinated notes, senior non-preferred debt instruments and certain senior preferred debt instruments with residual maturities of more than one year.

    Impaired (or non-performing) loan coverage ratio 
    This ratio divides the outstanding provisions by the impaired gross customer loans.

    Impaired (or non-performing) loan ratio 
    This ratio divides the impaired gross customer loans on an individual basis, before provisions, by the total gross customer loans.

    TLAC
    The Financial Stability Board (FSB) has defined the calculation of a ratio aimed at estimating the adequacy of the bail-in and recapitalisation capacity of Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs). This Total Loss Absorbing Capacity (TLAC) ratio provides resolution authorities with the means to assess whether G-SIBs have sufficient bail-in and recapitalisation capacity before and during resolution. It applies to Global Systemically Important Banks, and therefore to Crédit Agricole Group. Agricole. The TLAC ratio requirement was transposed into European Union law via CRR2 and has been applicable since 27 June 2019.

    The Group’s regulatory capital as well as subordinated notes and eligible senior non-preferred debt with residual maturities of more than one year issued by Crédit Agricole S.A. are eligible for the numerator of the TLAC ratio.

    Net income Group share
    Net income/(loss) for the financial year (after corporate income tax). Equal to net income Group share, less the share attributable to non-controlling interests in fully consolidated subsidiaries.

    Underlying Net income Group share
    The underlying net income Group share represents the stated net income Group share from which specific items have been deducted (i.e., non-recurring or exceptional items) to facilitate the understanding of the company’s actual earnings.

    Net income Group share attributable to ordinary shares
    The net income Group share attributable to ordinary shares represents the net income Group share from which the AT1 coupon has been deducted, including issuance costs before tax.

    RoTE Return on Tangible Equity
    The RoTE (Return on Tangible Equity) measures the return on tangible capital by dividing the Net income Group share annualised by the Group’s NBV net of intangibles and goodwill. The annualised Net income Group share corresponds to the annualisation of the Net income Group share (Q1x4; H1x2; 9Mx4/3) excluding impairments of intangible assets and restating each period of the IFRIC impacts in order to linearise them over the year.

    Disclaimer

    The financial information on Crédit Agricole S.A. and Crédit Agricole Group for the third quarter and the first nine months of 2024 comprises this presentation and the attached appendices and press release which are available on the website: https://www.credit-agricole.com/en/finance/financial-publications.

    This presentation may include prospective information on the Group, supplied as information on trends. This data does not represent forecasts within the meaning of EU Delegated Act 2019/980 of 14 March 2019 (Chapter 1, article 1, d).

    This information was developed from scenarios based on a number of economic assumptions for a given competitive and regulatory environment. Therefore, these assumptions are by nature subject to random factors that could cause actual results to differ from projections. Likewise, the financial statements are based on estimates, particularly in calculating market value and asset impairment.

    Readers must take all these risk factors and uncertainties into consideration before making their own judgement.

    Applicable standards and comparability

    The figures presented for the nine-month period ending 30 September 2024 have been prepared in accordance with IFRS as adopted in the European Union and applicable at that date, and with prudential regulations currently in force. This financial information does not constitute a set of financial statements for an interim period as defined by IAS 34 “Interim Financial Reporting” and has not been audited.

    Note: The scopes of consolidation of the Crédit Agricole S.A. and Crédit Agricole Groups have not changed materially since the Crédit Agricole S.A. 2023 Universal Registration Document and its A.01 update (including all regulatory information about the Crédit Agricole Group) were filed with the AMF (the French Financial Markets Authority).

    The sum of values contained in the tables and analyses may differ slightly from the total reported due to rounding.

    At 30 June 2024, Indosuez Wealth Management had completed the acquisition of Degroof Petercam and now holds 65% of Banque Degroof Petercam alongside with CLdN Cobelfret, its historical shareholder, which would maintain a 20% stake in capital. As of 30 September 2024, Indosuez Wealth Management’s stake in Degroof Petercam has increased to 76%.

    At 30 June 2024, Amundi had completed the acquisition of Alpha Associates, an independent asset manager offering multi-management investment solutions in private assets.

    Financial Agenda

    05 February 2025        Publication of the 2024 fourth quarter and full year results
    30 April 2025                Publication of the 2025 first quarter results
    14 May 2025                General Meeting
    31 July 2025                Publication of the 2025 second quarter and the first half-year results
    30 October 2025                Publication of the 2025 third quarter and first nine months results

    Contacts

    CREDIT AGRICOLE PRESS CONTACTS

    CRÉDIT AGRICOLE S.A. INVESTOR RELATIONS CONTACTS

    Institutional investors + 33 1 43 23 04 31 investor.relations@credit-agricole-sa.fr
    Individual shareholders + 33 800 000 777 (freephone number – France only) relation@actionnaires.credit-agricole.com
         
    Cécile Mouton + 33 1 57 72 86 79 cecile.mouton@credit-agricole-sa.fr
     

    Equity investor relations:

    		    
    Jean-Yann Asseraf
    Fethi Azzoug    		 + 33 1 57 72 23 81
    + 33 1 57 72 03 75    		 jean-yann.asseraf@credit-agricole-sa.fr fethi.azzoug@credit-agricole-sa.fr
    Oriane Cante + 33 1 43 23 03 07 oriane.cante@credit-agricole-sa.fr
    Nicolas Ianna + 33 1 43 23 55 51 nicolas.ianna@credit-agricole-sa.fr
    Leila Mamou + 33 1 57 72 07 93 leila.mamou@credit-agricole-sa.fr
    Anna Pigoulevski + 33 1 43 23 40 59 anna.pigoulevski@credit-agricole-sa.fr
         
         
    Credit investor and rating agency relations:  
    Gwenaëlle Lereste + 33 1 57 72 57 84 gwenaelle.lereste@credit-agricole-sa.fr
    Florence Quintin de Kercadio + 33 1 43 23 25 32 florence.quintindekercadio@credit-agricole-sa.fr
         
         
         

    See all our press releases at: www.credit-agricole.com  

    1 Car, home, health, legal, all mobile phones or personal accident insurance.
    2 CA Auto Bank, automotive JVs and automotive activities of other entities
    3 50% reduction in the carbon footprint (tonnes of CO₂ equivalent/€m invested) of its equity-listed and corporate bond investment portfolios and directly held property. (The previous target was a 25% reduction in the carbon footprint of its equity-listed and corporate bond investment portfolio in 2025 vs 2019.)

    4 Low-carbon energy outstandings made up of renewable energy produced by the clients of all Crédit Agricole Group entities, including nuclear energy outstandings for Crédit Agricole CIB.
    5 Crédit Agricole CIB green asset portfolio, in line with the eligibility criteria of the Group Green Bond Framework published in November 2023.
    6 The reorganisation of the Mobility activities of the CA Consumer Finance Group had a non-recurring impact in Q3 2023 due to the transfer of business assets, indemnities received and paid, the accounting treatment of the 100% consolidation of CA Auto Bank (formerly FCA Bank) and the reorganisation of the automotive financing activities within the CA Consumer Finance Group (particularly the review of application solutions).
    7 See Appendixes for more details on specific items.
    8 The cost of risk/outstandings (in basis points) on a four-quarter rolling basis is calculated on the cost of risk of the past four quarters divided by the average outstandings at the start of each of the four quarters
    9 The cost of risk/outstandings (in basis points) on an annualised basis is calculated on the cost of risk of the quarter multiplied by four and divided by the outstandings at the start of the quarter
    10 Average rate of loans to monthly production for July and August 2024.
    11 Equipment rate – Home-Car-Health policies, Legal, All Mobile/Portable or personal accident insurance
    12 SAS Rue La Boétie dividend paid annually in Q2
    13 Home Purchase Savings Plan base effect (reversal of the Home Purchase Savings Plan provision) in Q3-23 totalling +€118m in revenues and +€88m in net income Group share. 

    14 Underlying, excluding specific items.
    15 Scope effect of Degroof Petercam revenues: +€140 million in the third quarter of 2024.
    16 Scope effect in expenses in the third quarter of 2024: Degroof Petercam for -€104 million and miscellaneous others.
    17 Costs related to the integration of ISB (CACEIS): -€26 million in third quarter 2024 versus -€5 million in third quarter 2023; costs related to the integration of Degroof Petercam: -€8 million in third quarter 2024.

    18 Provisioning rate calculated with outstandings in Stage 3 as denominator, and the sum of the provisions recorded in Stages 1, 2 and 3 as numerator.
    19 The cost of risk/outstandings (in basis points) on a four-quarter rolling basis is calculated on the cost of risk of the past four quarters divided by the average outstandings at the start of each of the four quarters
    20 The cost of risk/outstandings (in basis points) on an annualised basis is calculated on the cost of risk of the quarter multiplied by four and divided by the outstandings at the start of the quarter
    21         See Appendixes for more details on specific items.
    22 SRF costs amounted to -€509 million over the first nine months of 2023

    23 See Appendixes for details on the calculation of the RoTE (return on tangible equity)
    24 The annualised underlying net income Group share corresponds to the annualisation of the underlying net income Group share (Q1x4; H1x2; 9Mx4/3) by restating each period for IFRIC impacts to linearise them over the year
    25 Property and casualty insurance premium income includes a scope effect linked to the first consolidation of CATU (a property and casualty insurance entity in Poland): Impact of +0.5% on growth in property and casualty insurance premium income (+8.7% change in premium income excluding CATU between the third quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2024); Impact of +2.0% on portfolio growth, i.e. an impact of 314,000 contracts (+3.1% growth excluding CATU between September 2023 and September 2024).

    26 Scope: property and casualty in France and abroad
    27 P&C combined ratio in France (Pacifica) including discounting and excluding undiscounting, net of reinsurance: (claims + operating expenses + fee and commission income) to gross earned premiums; the ratio is calculated for the first nine months of 2024. The net combined ratio excluding the effect of discounting for the first nine months of 2024 is 97.7% (-0.2 percentage point year-on-year).
    28 Excl. JVs
    29 Excluding assets under custody for institutional clients
    30 Amount of allocation of Contractual Service Margin (CSM) and Risk Adjustment (RA) including funeral guarantees
    31 Amount of allocation of CSM and RA
    32 Net of cost of reinsurance, excluding financial results
    33 Indosuez Wealth Management scope
    34 Degroof Petercam data for the quarter included in Wealth Management results: Revenues of €140m and expenses of -€104m (excluding integration costs partly borne by Degroof Petercam)

    35 Refinitiv LSEG
    36 Bloomberg in EUR
    37 CA Auto Bank, automotive JVs and auto activities of other entities
    38 CA Auto Bank and automotive JVs
    39 Base effect related to the reorganisation of Mobility activities in Q3-23: +€1m in revenues, -€26m in equity-accounted entities, +€61m in net income on other assets, -€16m in corporate income tax, i.e. +€19m in net income Group share
    40 Base effect related to the reorganisation of Mobility activities in 9M-23: +€300 million in revenues, -€18 million in expenses, -€85 million in cost of risk, -€39 million in equity-accounted entities, +€89 million in net income on other assets, -€89 million in corporate income tax, i.e. +€159 million in net income Group share.
    41 Cost of risk for the last four quarters as a proportion of the average outstandings at the beginning of the period for the last four quarters.
    42 Base effect related to the reorganisation of Mobility activities in 9M-23: +€300 million in revenues, -€18 million in expenses, -€85 million in cost of risk, -€39 million in equity-accounted entities, +€89 million in net income on other assets, -€89 million in corporate income tax, i.e. +€159 million in net income Group share.
    43 Net of POCI outstandings
    44 Source: Abi Monthly Outlook, July 2024: -1.9% June/June and -1.2% year to date for all loans
    45 Home Purchase Saving Plan base effect (reversal of the provision for Home Purchase Saving Plans) in Q2-23 of +€52 million in revenues and +€37 million in net income Group share.
    46 Reversal of provision for Cheque Image Exchange Provision of + €21m in Q2-23
    47 At 30 September 2024 this scope includes the entities CA Italy, CA Polska, CA Egypt and CA Ukraine.

    48 Over a rolling four quarter period.
    49 A credit institution that is a wholly owned subsidiary of Crédit Agricole S.A. Large credit exposures borne by the Regional Banks must be presented to Foncaris, which partially guarantees such exposures.
    50 As part of its annual resolvability assessment, Crédit Agricole Group has chosen to waive the possibility offered by Article 72ter(3) of the Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR) to use senior preferred debt for compliance with its TLAC requirements in 2024.
    51 Gross amount before buy-backs and amortisations
    52 Excl. AT1 issuances
    53 Gross amount before buy-backs and amortisations
    54 Excl. AT1 issuances
    55 Excl. senior secured debt
    56 Excl. senior secured debt
    57 Excl. AT1 issuances
    58 APMs are financial indicators not presented in the financial statements or defined in accounting standards but used in the context of financial communications, such as underlying net income Group share or RoTE. They are used to facilitate the understanding of the company’s actual performance. Each APM indicator is matched in its definition to accounting data.

    Attachment

    The MIL Network –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Historical reconstructions, creative master classes and more: what awaits guests of the Moskino cinema park this weekend

    Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Moscow Government – Government of Moscow –

    This weekend, visitors to the Moskino Cinema Park will be able to travel to the lands of Red Rus’ in the 11th century and witness the bloody struggle for territories bordering the Polish Principality. On November 9 and 10, reenactors will recreate events related to the campaigns of Yaroslav the Wise. Thematic excursions, exhibitions and historical master classes have also been prepared for guests. Live music will also be playing in the cinema park all weekend.

    Entrance to events on November 9 and 10 by tickets. You can buy and pay for them only online, cash payment is not provided. In case of visiting only the cinema, purchasing a ticket to enter the Moskino cinema park is not required. Parking in a personal car when visiting the cinema park is free.

    See historical battles and master ancient crafts

    These days, the Moskino cinema park will become the arena of events from 1030–1031. The border towns of Przemysl and Cherven, first annexed after the Baptism of Rus during the reign of Vladimir the Saint, had been the subject of a dispute between the neighbors since the 10th century. It was these lands that Yaroslav’s brother Svyatopolk the Accursed gave to the Polish king in exchange for troops to help in the struggle for power over Rus. Prince Yaroslav the Wise put an end to his brother’s claims and recaptured the territories on the border with Poland.

    Guests of the Moskino cinema park will see military shows and professional productions dedicated to the events of those years. At 11:00 and 16:00 viewers will see the drill training of squads dressed in authentic costumes of warriors of those times.

    At the Cathedral Square site at 12:00 you can cheer for the participants of the squad tournament, and at 14:00 you can listen to a lecture on “Clothing of the inhabitants of Rus”. At 17:30 you can see the battle of the troops of Yaroslav the Wise and the army of the Polish king Boleslav I. About 80 people will take part in the detailed reconstruction.

    At 15:00 in the culinary lecture hall, everyone will be shown how to prepare dishes according to old and traditional recipes. Among them are meat and bean soups, homemade cheese, smoked brisket, onion jam, as well as juicy chicken on the fire, pork ribs smoked in a cauldron and hearty pork roast.

    These days, the cinema park will organize three excursion routes at once through several exhibitions. The first exhibition will show unique costumes from the 9th–11th centuries, the second will demonstrate various military equipment from the 11th century. During a visit to the third exhibition, guests will learn the most interesting details related to the life of Rus’ in the 11th century. The excursions last 20 minutes and will take place in turns throughout the day — from 10:00 to 18:00. The meeting place is the stele near the display cases with historical exhibits.

    At the master classes, participants will be offered to try themselves in the role of a blacksmith and candle maker, master the technique of printing on fabric, the basics of calligraphy and carpet weaving, learn the basics of wood and soapstone carving, and also take part in the production of beads and amulet dolls, practice minting coins and soap making. Guests will learn how jewelers worked without microscopes and bright lighting, how armor was created, visit a warrior school and military training classes, and visit a gunsmith and tanner.

    And military equipment from the 20th century can be seen in the parking lot in front of the Vadim Zadorozhny Museum of Equipment. The exhibition “Behind the Ribbon” presents airborne and infantry armored vehicles, support vehicles such as the BMD-1, BTR-60, BTR-70, Ural-375, GAZ-66, BTR-60 and others.

    Get creative and go on a film trip

    On 25 sites of the cinema park, all comers will find active games and other events. For example, you can shoot a bow, fight on tyambars and manually start a fire. Guests will also be offered to play board games “Tavley”, “Mill”, “Fox and Geese”, “Daldosa”.

    You can also take a fascinating journey through your favorite films. For example, the Uyezdny Gorod site will host the premiere of a staged shoot based on Mikhail Kozakov’s famous film Pokrovskie Vorota. Guests will be able to play their favorite characters: Velyurov, Kostik, Margarita, or Khobotov. The shoot will take place from 10:00 to 18:00.

    The Pitersky Bar venue will turn into the legendary Three Minnows tavern from the Buratino fairy tale. Guests will act out a scene fragment together with the fox Alice and the cat Basilio. You can take a souvenir photo dressed as the fairytale character.

    At the Moscow in the 1940s site, you can immerse yourself in the atmosphere of the post-war capital, try on the image of the heroes of that time and take photos.

    In the educational center of the Moskino cinema park, young Muscovites will take part in master classes. Thus, at the string art master class, children, under the guidance of experienced craftsmen, will create works of art by forming images from threads. And at another, they will make a movie clapperboard, a device used for sound synchronization during filming. Children will be taught how to depict emotions using face painting and oil paint at a master class on face painting with special paints. Participation in the master classes is paid.

    On the first floor of the educational center you can also buy a ticket for a walking tour. Starting at 11:00, 12:00, 14:00 and 15:00.

    Children are welcome in the Fairytale Park. In the castle, they will learn teamwork when moving cubes from one sector to another, and will demonstrate their accuracy in the Ring Toss. And at the Snake Catcher station, children will have a fun game with a rope and islands. In addition, children will take part in the Horseman relay race with a toy horse and sword, the Spinner game, and in balls.

    Become a star and watch a movie

    All visitors to the Media Academy of the film park will be able to unleash their creative potential this coming weekend. There will be classes on acting, where they will teach how to create memorable images, tell the secrets of stage speech, plasticity and movement, and also introduce various acting techniques.

    Guests are also welcome to a dance master class, where participants will be able to create their own style of movement to music. And in the “Sing Like in the Movies!” classes, vocal teachers will teach you how to control your breathing, help you understand how to work with the diaphragm and make your voice beautiful and expressive. Entrance is paid.

    Musical groups will perform at the Gonzaga Theatre. They will play pieces on ancient instruments such as the duduk and the bugle. In addition, viewers will be able to learn all the secrets of sword fights and understand how the knights fought in the legendary Soviet film The Ballad of the Valiant Knight Ivanhoe, the box office leader of 1983.

    At the Moskino Kinopark cinema, adults will be able to watch the drama Love of the Soviet Union, which tells about the fates of people in the 1930s, and the film Time to Live, starring Florence Pugh and Andrew Garfield. For fans of family films, the program includes a new film, The Return of Kesha the Parrot. Guests will also enjoy fairy-tale adventures in the new fantasy Tinderbox, filmed in Karelia and in the reserves of the Novgorod Region. Tickets can be purchased on the website.

    Weekend at the Moskino Cinema Park

    Immerse yourself in the world of cinema, try yourself in various creative directions and simply enjoy free time with family and friends – this is the unique opportunity that the Moskino cinema park offers its guests.

    The Moskino Cinema Park, which is part of the Moscow Cinema Cluster, is part of Sergei Sobyanin’s Moscow — City of Cinema project. The first stage of its development has already been completed: 18 natural sites, four pavilions and six infrastructure facilities have been built. Among them are the sets of Moscow Center, Moscow in the 1940s, Vitebsk Station, Yurovo Airport, Cathedral Square, Deaf Village, County Town, Cowboy Town, St. Petersburg Bar and other sites.

    The capital’s film cluster also includes the Maxim Gorky Film Studio (sites on Sergei Eisenstein Street and Valdaisky Proezd), the Moskino cinema chain, the Moskino film factory, the Moskino film commission, and the Moskino film platform.

    The President of Russia and the Mayor of Moscow ceremoniously opened the Moskino cinema parkFrom Ancient Rus’ to Our Time: Which Sites of the Moskino Cinema Park Can You Immerse Yourself in Different ErasVitebsk railway station, Cathedral square and the plane cabin. Exploring the Moskino cinema park

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    https://vvv.mos.ru/nevs/item/146236073/

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election results: Trump leads electoral college votes as Republicans regain Senate

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

    This is a rolling guide to articles and audio published by The Conversation in the immediate run-up to and aftermath of the election, with some explainers about the process. This page is updated from the top, so older references are moved down the page.

    Good morning world. The United States has made its choice. And, as of 5am Donald Trump and the Republican Party will be the happier contenders, having so far won the most electoral college votes and the first swing states of North Carolina and Georgia, as well as regaining control of the Senate.

    It’s been a turbulent four months since outgoing president Joe Biden announced he was terminating his bid for a second term and the battlelines between the two candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were drawn. Soon we will know who will lead the US for the next four years.

    From here, with the help of some of the sharpest analysts of US politics, we’ll keep you updated and informed as the situation develops.

    To get an idea of the scale of the task of counting votes, take a look at the below map of the US colour-coded by poll closing times. How long the count could take is anyone’s guess at this stage. Each state has its own rules.

    Ahead of the polls closing Richard Hargy, an expert in US politics from Queen’s University Belfast, wrote a guide to the process, when the votes are counted and when we might start to see results.



    Read more:
    US election: what time do the polls close and when will the results be known? An expert explains

    Delays are baked into the process, such as Pennsylvania, which doesn’t allow votes cast before election day or ballots posted in to be counted until polls close, which was at 8pm (1am GMT).

    So we’ll just have to be patient. In the mean time, you can also read Hargy’s explainer on the “electoral college” system, which can mean that the candidate with the most votes may not win the presidency.



    Read more:
    US election: how does the electoral college voting system work?

    Early voting and what it might mean

    Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at University College Dublin, believes that in a cliffhanger election, a clue to the outcome may be in the size of turnout. More than 80 million Americans voted early – around half of the total turnout in 2020 and around one-third of the eligible electorate.

    The 80 million figure takes on added significance with the recognition that it is not that distant from the 104 million who participated early in the “pandemic” election four years ago. And that 2020 ballot, with 158.4 million votes and almost 67% participation, was the largest turnout since 1900.

    Who does that favour? Probably Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. Trumpists will turn out for their man come hell or high water. The large question mark has been whether potential Harris voters would sit on their hands, whether from lack of enthusiasm or dissatisfaction on issues such as Israel’s open-ended war on Gaza.

    Any prediction in this election is a risk. But it might be worth setting a marker: if turnout matches or exceeds the record set in 2020, Kamala Harris could be on the way to the White House.

    Tense moment for the US

    During the campaign there have been two assassination attempts on former president Trump as well as arson attacks on ballot boxes and ballots damaged. In Arizona the Democratic party was forced to close one of its offices after it had been shot at three times.

    Dafydd Townley, a fellow in international security at Portsmouth University, believes that there could be a reluctance to accept the result and that this could result in further disturbances. He has written about how much violence there has been during this campaign.



    Read more:
    US election: officials are issued with panic buttons as attacks on ballot boxes continue

    Dafyyd Townley comments on post-election violence.

    How race has played into the campaign

    Rhianna Garrett, PhD researcher and global coordinator of the critical mixed race studies executive board at Loughborough University, says that Trump’s campaign has been “littered with attempts to weaponise” the multiracial heritage of his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris.

    Much of this has been a dog-whistle attempt to stir up his own base, partly with fairly blatant appeals to latent feelings of racism, but also as a tool to position Harris as deceiving and untrustworthy by apparently blurring and shifting her own background.

    In August, not long after Harris took over the Democrat ticket from Biden, Trump appeared at the National Association of Black Journalists conference when he wrongfully claimed that Harris was changing her identity, stating: “I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black, and now she wants to be known as Black, So I don’t know. Is she Indian or is she Black?”.

    For her part, Harris’s campaign has also used her multiracial heritage to further their political agendas. On the White House website, she is described as “the first woman, the first Black American, and the first South Asian American” to hold a vice-presidential position, which has effectively attempted to position her as a winner. Harris herself has also foregrounded “race” on her campaign website. In attempt to attack Trump’s campaign, she strategically aims to promote Black and Latino men specifically, as well as women’s rights. These are key voter groups she has aimed to mobilise through identity politics.

    Trump and winning male voters

    Donald Trump widened his appeal to male voters in this election, with polling indicating that he was picking up more support from Black and Latino men, as well as more young men more widely.

    One reason for this may be that in 2024 young men are more conservative than any other group in the US. Another reason why gender has become a divisive issue is the overturning of Roe v Wade, the legal case that gave American women abortion rights.

    Read more on the gender divide in this article from Natasha Lindstaedt, a professor of government at Essex University.



    Read more:
    US election: why more men and fewer white women say they will vote for Trump

    A free speech campaign?

    Julie Posetti, professor of journalism at City St George’s, University of London, and global director of research at the International Center for Journalists, recently conducted a survey of more than 1,000 Americans on their attitudes to the press.

    Breaking down the results, they were able to build a picture of what people in the US think of targeting journalists for criticism and even abuse. You can read all about the study here.



    Read more:
    New survey finds an alarming tolerance for attacks on the press in the US – particularly among white, Republican men

    When Trump speaks – his supporters hear him loud and clear

    Channel 4 is showing pictures of the Trump party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, where the Maga faithful are celebrating the news that it appears that Trump has retaken Georgia in his second swing-state victory. Their idol is expected to join them soon.

    While we wait for him to speak, here’s a fascinating piece on Trump’s rhetorical style by Loren D. Marsh of the Humboldt University of Berlin. His speeches have been ridiculed by his opponents during the campaign. They say he’s unfocused, rambling and at times nonsensical. He calls it the “weave” and says it’s genius. Marsh says that whatever you may think, it seems to work for his supporters.

    Far from being a liability or an indication he is incapable of staying on message, Trump’s “weave” may well be his intuitive rhetorical strategy, a way of taking control of the media narrative.



    Read more:
    Trump’s speeches are chaotic, rambling, and extremely effective. Aristotle can explain why

    A bad night for the pollsters

    Natasha

    – ref. US election results: Trump leads electoral college votes as Republicans regain Senate – https://theconversation.com/us-election-results-trump-leads-electoral-college-votes-as-republicans-regain-senate-241711

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump takes first swing states of North Carolina and Georgia after voting passes peacefully

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of Portsmouth

    Donald Trump looked poised to take some key battleground states this morning as votes continue to be counted. The Republicans were also being predicted to take control of the Senate.

    North Carolina with its 16 electoral college votes was called for Trump in the early hours of the morning, and another key east coast state, Georgia and its 16 electoral college votes, was also predicted to have been gained by Trump. Trump won other major states, from Iowa to Texas, with a strong showing at the polls.

    As well as this, Republicans have taken back control of the Senate as they were forecast to, after Democrats lost their slender lead. If Trump is victorious, this will provide him with the congressional support he needs to get his appointees ratified and pass laws without obstruction.

    Turnout has been impressive and initial speculation is that Trump has surpassed his rural support from 2020 while Democrat Kamala Harris only matched the suburban numbers that Biden achieved four years ago. NBC exit polls also showed Trump had more support from voters under 30 than any Republican candidate since 2008.

    The BBC reported that early exit polls indicated that voters were most concerned with the state of the democracy (35%) with the economy coming a close second (31%).

    These concerns have led to a turnout that will be just below the 2020 figures, according to Professor Michael McDonald, of the University of Florida.

    In too-close-to-call battleground state Pennsylvania, it was reported that voters were queueing in their hundreds over an hour before the polls opened at 7am.

    In Michigan, another key state in the election, officials said that those voters who had voted early – both the absentee and in-person votes – numbered almost as many as the total votes for the 2020 election.

    Michigan’s Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, said that the state was “on pace to see another high turnout election with voters all across the state enthusiastic and engaged”. And much of it was done in a good atmosphere with election chairperson Jennifer Jenkins telling reporters that it was “good vibes all around”.

    Safety concerns

    Concerns about whether election day would pass peacefully have not kept voters away.

    As revealed in a memo obtained by the non-partisan group, Property of the People, the Department of Homeland Security had issued a warning in September that election infrastructure was “an attractive target for some domestic violent extremists” particularly those with “election-related grievances” who seek to disrupt the democratic process and election operations.

    In the nation’s capital, Washington DC, police arrested a man who was stopped during the screening process at the US Capitol visitor centre. Authorities stated that he smelled like gasoline and had a torch lighter, flare gun and papers he intended to deliver to Congress.

    Capitol Police Chief J. Thomas Manger, speaking at a press conference shortly after the incident, stated that “there is no indication right now that it had anything to do with the election”.

    The greatest threat to the smooth running of the election on polling day seemed not to come from domestic perpetrators but from foreign interference, particularly in the crucial swing state races.

    Several polling stations in Georgia, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin were the victims of hoax bomb threats that caused temporary closures of the sites. The threats were believed to be sent by emails that were traced back to Russian email domains.

    In Navajo County in Arizona, four polling stations were the target of bomb threats. Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes told reporters that election officials in the state had “no reason to believe that any of our voters or any of our polling places are in any sort of jeopardy.”

    “We also have reason to believe, although I won’t get into specifics, that this comes from one of our foreign enemies, namely Russia,” he continued.

    In Pennsylvania, Governor Josh Shapiro announced at a press conference that there had been multiple bomb threats at polling stations and municipal centres across the state.

    Shapiro, who was at one time thought of as a potential running mate for Harris, revealed that “state and local law enforcement – along with the FBI – are investigating these threats and thus far, there is no credible threat to the public”.

    This came after reports emerged of at least ten polling locations in Philadelphia and in surrounding areas were sent a bomb threat via email at 6pm local time.

    Republican Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger accused Russia of being the cause of the threats aimed at polling locations in the southern state. “They don’t want us to have a smooth, fair and accurate election, and if they can get us to fight among ourselves, they can count that as a victory,” he told reporters.

    The FBI stated that it was aware of the threats and that many appeared “to originate from Russian email domains”. The Russian embassy in Washington denied the threats.

    Last Thursday, Georgia was also the subject of what the US intelligence community called a disinformation campaign designed to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election result through an online video that “depicted individuals claiming to be from Haiti and voting illegally in multiple counties in Georgia”.

    Researchers at Clemson University in South Carolina identified the work as being that of Russian disinformation group Storm -1516. Darren Linvill of Clemson University, stated that Russian group had “turned their focus squarely on the US election.”

    And the integrity of this election took a further hit when Republican candidate Donald Trump made unfounded accusations on social media platform Truth Social of election fraud in Philadelphia, a must-win state for the former president.

    Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner said through a spokesperson that “the only talk about massive cheating has come from one of the candidates, Donald J. Trump. There is no factual basis whatsoever within law enforcement to support this wild allegation”.

    Experts have warned that such campaigns could give momentum to accusations that the election is not legitimate and that this, in turn, could trigger post-election violence.

    As the results come in, America holds it breath that any potential transition of power will be more peaceful than four years ago.

    Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump takes first swing states of North Carolina and Georgia after voting passes peacefully – https://theconversation.com/trump-takes-first-swing-states-of-north-carolina-and-georgia-after-voting-passes-peacefully-242716

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Sobyanin: Special attention is paid to architectural details of buildings during restoration

    Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Moscow Government – Government of Moscow –

    The capital’s restorers are returning the original appearance of historical buildings in Moscow. In doing so, the specialists pay special attention to details. About this in his telegram channel written by Sergei Sobyanin.

    “The architectural appearance of the capital has been formed over many centuries. Characteristic features

    objects of cultural heritage give unique details. At restorations “They are always given special attention,” the Mayor of Moscow noted.

    Source: Sergei Sobyanin’s Telegram channel @mos_sobyanin 

    For example, now specialists The skylights of the P.I. Tchaikovsky Concert Hall are being restored. These special roof structures are a rare element. They are necessary for natural lighting of the premises.

    Craftsmen are also working on the facades of O. P. Korobkova’s mansion on Pyatnitskaya Street. The comprehensive restoration of the building was completed in 2015. It’s time to slightly update the base and tidy up the stucco decor, including the main decoration of the mansion – the supporting supports in the form of female figures. According to legend, one of the caryatids was created based on the portrait of the mistress of the house.

    “They plan to put in order the massive stucco shield of the apartment building with the Alpine Rose restaurant on Pushchnaya Street. The facades, granite facing of the base, elements of the baluster with a handrail, finishing of the half-columns, flowerpots and pedestals of the parapet fencing of the roof will also be restored,” added Sergei Sobyanin.

    In addition, restorers are going to return the historical appearance of the facades of the L.Ya. Geltishcheva mansion in Sredniy Ovchinnikovsky Lane. They will have to work especially carefully on the paired name monogram on the main facade, since the left one was completely lost.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    https://vvv.mos.ru/major/themes/11994050/

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: LCQ1: Disposal of waste furniture

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

         Following is a question by the Hon Luk Chung-hung and a reply by the Secretary for Environment and Ecology, Mr Tse Chin-wan, in the Legislative Council today (November 6):
     
    Question:
     
         There are views that most waste furniture is reusable, and for Hong Kong, collaborating with the Mainland in waste treatment is not only a superior mode of co-operation leveraging on the strong support of the motherland, but also crucial to the city’s efforts in reducing waste generation, turning waste into resources, and promoting environmental protection and sustainable development. In this connection, will the Government inform this Council:
     
    (1) of the quantity of waste furniture disposal as measured by weight in the past five years, together with a breakdown by household furniture and commercial furniture;
     
    (2) as some members of the public have relayed that at present, they have to deliver waste furniture to public refuse collection points themselves, which is very physically demanding, whether the Government will, by drawing reference from the practice of treating and recycling waste electrical and electronic equipment, introduce a producer responsibility scheme on furniture, and commission contractors to provide services for to-the-door collection of waste furniture and the delivery of used furniture in suitable conditions as a donation to the underprivileged groups, so as to assist members of the public in the disposal of waste furniture and promote the turning of waste into resources; if so, of the details; if not, the reasons for that; and
     
    (3) as it is learnt that Hong Kong will explore with the Mainland the integration of waste resources in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, whether the Government will consider collaborating with the Mainland in creating new green industries for the treatment of household or commercial waste furniture that has a value and is reusable, and establishing a “green lane” for exporting waste furniture to the Mainland with the provision of tax incentives; if so, of the details; if not, the reasons for that?
     
    Reply:
     
    President,
     
         The Government has all along been attaching great importance to promoting the culture of “use less, waste less”, and vigorously promoting community-wide participation in waste reduction at source and clean recycling, with a view to achieving full utilisation of materials and minimisation of resources wastage. The Government’s support to the recycling industry is primarily based on the principles of market economy and fair competition. Meanwhile, consideration is also given to the feasibility of converting different types of waste into energy or resources, as well as the cost effectiveness of recycling, when determining priority and appropriate measures for various types of recyclables. In view of the diverse types of waste, in order to optimise the use of government resources, the priority of Government’s support measures will be accorded to the treatment of two types of wastes, including (i) wastes containing hazardous substances, which will pose hazards to the environment and human health (such as waste electrical and electronic products), and (ii) wastes of relatively large quantities that will be more cost-effective in alleviating burden on the landfills (such as waste plastics and food waste). For these two types of wastes, we will fill the gaps in the market through appropriate measures based on the relative economic value and environmental benefits of recycling. As regards recyclables with stable market value or items with an active second-hand market, the Government will allow the recycling industry and the private market to handle them in accordance with market principles which will be conducive to enhancing the economic value of recovery and recycling, thereby building a circular economy in the long run.
     
         On the handling of used furniture, the second-hand market and trading platforms for used furniture are active in Hong Kong, and members of the public are aware of the mode of operation of the relevant market. For example, members of the public could arrange for the proper disposal of used furniture through furniture companies or trading platforms, or arrange for door-to-door collection by themselves in the course of purchasing new furniture. 
          
         The reply to the question raised by the Hon Luk Chung-hung is as follows:

    (1) The Environmental Protection Department (EPD) does not keep separate statistics on the amount of furniture disposed of and thus is unable to provide relevant figures. 

    (2) At present, there are different channels and platforms in the market for second-hand sale, exchange, donation, refurbishment, and facilitating the reuse of furniture, including commercial organisations, social enterprises, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and social media, to assist members of the public to handle used furniture. The public may choose suitable channels for trading, exchanging or donating their used furniture according to different circumstances and needs, such as the quality and quantity of the furniture, as well as their district of residence.

         If members of the public need to dispose of used furniture, there are companies that provide furniture disposal services, the charges of which depend on the size, type and weight of individual furniture, as well as the relevant removal condition and the districts concerned. On the other hand, the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department (FEHD) and its contractors collect domestic waste, including disposed furniture, from its public refuse collection points, as well as the refuse collection points in public and private housing estates. Some residential buildings employ their own contractors to deliver disposed furniture by their residents, from the refuse collection points of their residential buildings to the public refuse collection points under the FEHD, or directly to the refuse transfer stations or landfills under the EPD for disposal. The arrangement for relevant disposal services has been operating effectively, and is generally in line with the “polluter pays” principle. Therefore, at present, we do not consider it necessary for the Government to provide door-to-door disposal services for used furniture for the public through a designated operator.

         As most of the furniture is made of composite materials, containing a wide range of substances, such as plastics, wood trimmings, wood or other plant fibres, these composite materials are difficult to be separated into single materials for recycling by simple means, leading to very high cost of recycling and relatively higher carbon footprint in the process of recycling. Therefore, recycling is generally not a suitable outlet for used furniture. Encouraging members of the public to reuse the used furniture would better comply with the environmental principles and should be more cost-effective than recovery and recycling through producer responsibility schemes or other measures.
         
    (3) We will continue to promote waste reduction at different levels of the community, maintain communication with the trade and stakeholders and join hands to publicise and promote the culture of “use less, waste less”, so as to cultivate a culture and habit of reusing, exchanging and donating used furniture in the society. Specific measures include collaborating with NGOs to explore ways to step up publicity and education on the donation or exchange of second-hand furniture at the community level, promoting the culture of “use less, waste less” through the Big Waster’s social media platform and the Government’s “Hong Kong Waste Reduction Website”, as well as further disseminating the relevant message at the district level through the community network of the “Green Outreach”.

         As for the co-operation with the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the “Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Ecological Environmental Protection Plan” promulgated by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment vigorously promotes the development of a “Zero Waste” Bay Area. With this opportunity, Guangdong and Hong Kong have established a close co-operation and exchange mechanism on environmental issues to jointly explore the capacity and modes for developing a circular economy in the region, leveraging the competitive advantages of the two places, complementing each other’s strengths, and mutually developing green industries, green energy and related facilities. We believe that this will bring greater opportunities for the recycling industry in Hong Kong in the future.

         We will continue to monitor the market situation and maintain communication with the trade, with a view to further fostering a culture of “use less, waste less” in the community and encouraging the reuse and donation of used furniture.
          
         Thank you, President.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: LCQ16: Short-term parking arrangements for delivery couriers

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

    Following is a question by the Hon Kingsley Wong and a written reply by the Secretary for Housing, Ms Winnie Ho, in the Legislative Council today (November 6):
     
    Question:
     
         It has been reported that the new communities of Queen’s Hill Estate and Shan Lai Court in Fanling, with a population of more than 30 000, have great demand for the services of online delivery platforms. However, some of the relevant trade unionists have reflected that the management offices of these housing estates have not considered the need of delivery couriers for short-term parking of their motorcycles. Not only have the management offices failed to provide temporary parking spaces, they have also stepped up their efforts to impound motorcycles and have even lodged complaints with the Police about motorcycles obstructing roads, resulting in delivery couriers often having to pay impounding charges and fines for penalty tickets. Such trade unionists hope that the relevant estate management offices and the Police can take into account the principles of legality, reasonableness and compassion in their actions. In this connection, will the Government inform this Council:
     
    (1) as there are views about the varying standards of the management offices of different public housing estates in managing the short-term parking of delivery couriers’ motorcycles in the housing estates, which has left delivery couriers at a loss, whether the authorities will consider providing guidelines for all parties to follow; if so, of the details; if not, the reasons for that;
     
    (2) whether it will keep abreast with the need to develop the platform economy by using the housing estates with recent population intakes (e.g. Queen’s Hill Estate) as pilot estates to provide “designated motorcycle parking spaces for delivery” within or near the housing estates to allow delivery couriers to park their motorcycles for short periods; if so, of the details; if not, the reasons for that;
     
    (3) whether it will follow the practice of the Mainland and set up “courier posts” in various districts to provide areas for resting, eating and using toilets, equipped with facilities such as water dispensers and first-aid kits, so as to improve the working conditions and well-‍being of delivery couriers; if so, of the details; if not, the reasons for that; and
     
    (4) whether it has estimated the latest number of local delivery couriers accepting orders through online platforms?

    Reply:
     
    President,
     
         Having consulted the Transport and Logistics Bureau, Commerce and Economic Development Bureau, Labour and Welfare Bureau and the Census and Statistics Department (C&SD), a consolidated reply to the Hon Kingsley Wong’s question is as follows:
      
    (1) & (2) In general, establishing designated motorcycle parking spaces for delivery services in public housing estates or on public roads nearby requires effective management measures to ensure that these parking spaces are used as intended, such as restricting the parking purpose and limiting the parking duration based on the circumstances of each public housing estate to avoid prolonged occupancy. At present, motorcycle parking spaces on public roads are open for public use, including food delivery motorcycles. There are no restrictions on the parking use of the parking spaces. The Transport Department endeavours to increase the supply of motorcycle parking spaces on public roads to meet with the keen demand of motorcyclists through various means. It is initially assessed that the feasibility in establishing designated motorcycle parking spaces for a specific purpose is relatively low.
     
         Overall speaking, loading/unloading bays are provided around the domestic blocks in most of the housing estates/courts under the Hong Kong Housing Authority (HA) for vehicles, including delivery motorcycles, to load/unload goods or pick-up/drop-off passengers. Taking into account the prevalent need for short-term parking by various types of vehicles to load/unload goods and pick-up/drop-off passengers, the HA has waived the parking fees for vehicles parked in its loading/unloading bays in all housing estates/courts under the HA’s management for up to 30 minutes.

         In addition, for roads other than the loading/unloading bays, the Housing Department (HD) or the authorised staff of the housing estates/courts/car park operators will exercise discretion with regard to the actual situation in handling short-term parking by delivery motorcycles and other vehicles in a reasonable and compassionate manner. Given that the specific circumstances and road design vary in different housing estates/courts, the staff concerned will, in handling the matter, consider the needs of delivery couriers and will strike a balance among various factors such as estate management, the impact on other residents and road users, as well as whether the road section concerned is an emergency vehicular access which has to be kept clear at all times for fire appliances, police vehicles or ambulances to carry out rescue and other operations. In general, the staff will first issue a verbal/written warning to request the driver concerned to drive off the illegally parked vehicle. Only when the warning goes unheeded, the driver will receive fixed penalty tickets or have the vehicle impounded in accordance with the law. Couriers can use the loading/unloading bays adjacent to the domestic blocks for short-term parking of their motorcycles to facilitate their delivery services, and the estate staff will handle short-term parking by delivery motorcycles in a reasonable and compassionate manner according to the actual situation. The above arrangements took into account the needs of all the stakeholders.
     
         Queens Hill Estate is a public rental housing estate under the HA, while the neighbouring Shan Lai Court is a sold housing court under the “Home Ownership Scheme”. Lung Ma Road and Lung Chun Road, the major roads serving Queens Hill Estate and Shan Lai Court, are restricted roads within Queens Hill Estate. No parking is allowed at any time on these two roads which are under the control of the HD. The housing estate and court concerned are provided with emergency vehicular access to various domestic blocks, each of which is provided with loading/unloading bays in the vicinity with free parking offer for the first 30 minutes to allow short-term parking by vehicles (including motorcycles). At present, seven and six loading/unloading bays are provided adjacent to the domestic blocks in Queens Hill Estate and Shan Lai Court respectively. These facilities provide spaces for free temporary parking, enabling couriers to promptly deliver services. In addition, 11 hourly motorcycle parking spaces are provided in Queens Hill Estate for visitors (including couriers). 
     
         It is noted that some motorcycles/vehicles are parked on Lung Ma Road and Lung Chun Road, of which parking is prohibited at all times, or on the adjacent pedestrian footpaths. There are even vehicles parked illegally on emergency vehicle access in the housing estate/court, posing danger to other road users and pedestrians. Therefore, enforcement actions must be taken. The management agency appointed by the HA is authorised to carry out enforcement actions. Warning banners have been put up in prominent areas on roads to remind drivers that illegal parking will result in their vehicle impounded or issuance of fixed penalty tickets. If illegal parking is identified, the staff will warn the driver on-site to drive away the vehicle as soon as possible; and issue a warning notice if the driver is not present. Should the warning be unheeded, the vehicles concerned will be impounded. According to the record, most of the impounded vehicles were prolonged parking vehicles rather than short-term parking by delivery motorcycles. It can thus be seen that the aforementioned enforcement actions have been carried out in a lawful, reasonable and compassionate manner, and the impact on couriers has been minimal. It is observed that the situation has now been improved and in general couriers would temporarily park their motorcycles on the loading/unloading bays adjacent to the domestic blocks for delivery services.
     
         As for the supply of motorcycle parking spaces, the HD has provided seven additional monthly motorcycle parking spaces in the carpark of Queens Hill Estate since January 2024 having regard to the demand for motorcycle parking spaces and technical feasibility. All these parking spaces have been rented out. The implementation of the above integrated measures has greatly improved the illegal parking situation within Queens Hill Estate and Shan Lai Court, leading to a drop in the number of impounded vehicles.
     
         In view of the limited public spaces in housing estates and the requirement for the provision of emergency vehicular access, loading/unloading bays, pedestrian links as well as the recreational, leisure and greening facilities in accordance with the planning standards, it is not feasible to provide additional “designated motorcycle parking spaces for delivery”.
     
    (3) and (4) Commissioned by the Labour Department (LD), the C&SD has contracted out in September 2023 a Thematic Household Survey to collect information on, among others, the characteristics and working conditions of digital platform workers engaging in food and goods delivery services. The household survey is the first of its kind and fieldwork has been completed. Data processing and analysis are underway. The C&SD expected that the key findings of the relevant survey will be available in early 2025.
     
         The Government has always supported the development of different industries. With the rapid development of platform economy, the Government is very concerned about the working conditions and protection for delivery couriers and digital platform workers. The LD has set up a Liaison Group to facilitate the communication among major food and goods delivery platform operators and labour organisations as well as to encourage platform companies to adopt good practices for enhancing the working conditions and protection for platform workers.
     
         Should there be any measures related to the platform economy, the HD will spare no effort to provide necessary support.
     
     

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI China: HK, Shanghai foster ties for win-win development

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Officials vowed on Tuesday to deepen collaboration between Shanghai and Hong Kong to further unleash the two economic engines’ potential in the nation’s further opening-up, emphasizing the special administrative region’s springboard role for mainland enterprises to go global.

    They made the pledge at a high-level conference promoting Hong Kong’s investment opportunities in Shanghai, a significant event during the seventh China International Import Expo.

    Addressing the 2024 Hong Kong Investment Promotion Conference-Shanghai Forum, Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu stressed that Hong Kong possesses the capacity to serve as an investment and financing hub for the development of Shanghai and related mainland businesses, welcoming more enterprises to leverage Hong Kong for global expansion.

    He said Hong Kong is home to over 1,400 mainland companies listed on the city’s stock exchange, with close to 200 originating from Shanghai alone — boasting a total market value exceeding HK$2 trillion ($260 billion).

    “Leveraging each other’s strengths, Hong Kong and Shanghai can sail together toward new horizons,” Lee said.

    He believes that the two cities can further strengthen cooperation in areas such as global talent attraction, services and employment so as to advance the development of talent hubs in both locations.

    At the same event, Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po extended an invitation to mainland enterprises to establish headquarters in Hong Kong, highlighting the city’s status as a premier treasury center with unrestricted capital movement and tax incentives offered by the SAR government.

    Zhou Ji, executive deputy director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council, highlighted that both Shanghai and Hong Kong serve as vital gateways in China, connecting international and domestic markets.

    Zhou pledged that his office will continue to support Hong Kong’s unique role in Shanghai-Hong Kong cooperation and the country’s external opening, as well as to back ongoing research and implementation of favorable policies to facilitate Hong Kong’s development.

    Shanghai Mayor Gong Zheng stated that Shanghai will further encourage its enterprises to invest in Hong Kong, while particularly strengthening cooperation between the two cities in emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and biomedicine. Furthermore, Gong mentioned that Shanghai will support more qualified enterprises to list on the stock exchange in Hong Kong.

    He also pledged that the two cities will work together to jointly explore overseas markets. Shanghai will fully leverage Hong Kong’s advantages as a super-connector, assisting businesses in establishing a presence in international markets and participating in international cooperation as well as competition, he said.

    This year, more than 300 Hong Kong enterprises are participating in the import expo to promote Hong Kong’s quality goods and services, accounting for one-tenth of the total number of exhibitors.

    During the promotion conference, Invest Hong Kong under the Hong Kong government signed agreements with numerous Shanghai enterprises to deepen cooperation.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one.

    The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. He’s estimated to have won Georgia (16 electoral votes) by 2.5% over Democrat Kamala Harris and North Carolina (16) by 3.3%.

    Other key states have not yet been called, but Trump has an 85% probability of winning Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), a 71% chance to win Michigan (15), a 79% chance to win Wisconsin (ten) and an 83% chance to win Arizona (11). There are still no results from Nevada (six).

    If Trump wins all the seven key states in which the “needle” favours him, he will win the Electoral College by a 312–226 margin.

    The needle’s popular vote projection also favours Trump by 1.2%. If Trump wins the popular vote as well as the Electoral College, it will be the first time Republicans have won both since 2004. In 2000 and 2016, Republicans won the Electoral College but not the popular vote.

    The main reasons for Trump’s victory were Joe Biden’s unpopularity, the US economy being only just above average, and record illegal immigration during Biden’s term. I’ve mentioned all these factors in my previous US election articles.

    Abortion was not the vote-shifter Democrats expected. In lower-turnout elections such as the 2022 midterms and byelections, Democrats have performed well owing to voters motivated by abortion. But in this high-turnout presidential election, abortion was marginalised.

    Polls understated Trump across the board, though they were not as bad as they were in 2020. Using Nate Silver’s aggregate of final polls, Trump outperformed his polls in the seven key states by two to three points. This is the third successive time that polls have underestimated Trump.

    In the past, the Selzer Iowa poll has had outlier results that turned out to be accurate. This time the final Selzer poll gave Harris a three-point lead in Iowa, but Trump will win by 13 points according to the needle’s forecast.

    Barack Obama won Florida in both 2008 and 2012, and Trump won it by one to three points in both 2016 and 2020. This year, Trump won Florida by 56–43. He won the heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade county by 55–44. At the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton had defeated Trump in Miami-Dade by 63–34.

    In some states that have nearly finished counting, such as Kentucky, there were swings across the board to Trump compared with 2020. It wasn’t just a rural swing to Trump as there were also swings in urban counties.

    The New York Times said Trump had gained nine to ten points since 2020 in New York, New Jersey and Florida, all racially diverse states.

    The only comfort for Democrats from this election is that the gap between the popular vote and the Electoral College “tipping point” state has almost disappeared, if the needle is right. Democrats will lose the popular vote by 1.2% but Pennsylvania, the tipping point state, by 2.2%. This will be a gap of 1.0%, down from nearly 3.9% in 2020.

    Senate also ugly for Democrats

    Democrats and allied independents held a 51–49 Senate majority coming into this election, but they were defending 23 of the 33 regular seats up for election. Senators have six-year terms with two from each of the 50 states.

    Republicans have gained the Senate with a 51–42 lead over Democrats, after gaining West Virginia and Ohio from Democrats and defending Florida, Nebraska and Texas. Republicans lead Democrats in four more Senate races, so they could win a 55–45 Senate majority.

    All of the House of Representatives is up for election every two years. Republicans currently have a 183–155 lead over Democrats. A majority requires 218 seats.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states – https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-poised-to-become-next-us-president-likely-sweeping-all-the-seven-key-states-242766

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI: OSB GROUP PLC – Q3 Trading Update

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    LEI: 213800ZBKL9BHSL2K459

    OSB GROUP PLC: Trading update

    Published: 6.11.2024

    OSB GROUP PLC

    Q3 Trading update

    OSB GROUP PLC (OSBG or the Group), the specialist lending and retail savings group, today issues its trading update for the period from 1 July 2024 to date.  

    Key highlights for the period

    The Group maintained its lending discipline with organic originations of £0.9bn in the third quarter of 2024 (Q3 2023: £1.3bn), as demand in our core sub-segments remained in line with previous expectations. Underlying1 and statutory net loans increased by 2% in the nine months to 30 September to £26.3bn (31 December 2023: £25.7bn and £25.8bn, respectively). Our renewed focus on Commercial Mortgages, Bridging Finance and Asset Finance is progressing, with an increase in applications in each of these sub-segments received in the third quarter. We now expect underlying net loan book growth of slightly under 3% for 2024.

    Underlying net interest margin guidance is unchanged at 230bps–240bps for 2024 as higher yielding mortgages in the back book roll off to current prevailing spreads and as the market observes slightly elevated fixed term retail deposit pricing. The Group continues to evaluate customer behaviour in the reversion period throughout the fourth quarter and will assess this as part of the usual year-end process. The potential future impact of Precise Buy-to-Let customers spending less time on reversion will reduce significantly over the next two years as these mortgages reach maturity.

    The Group continues to focus on cost control with proactive actions to make its business-as-usual cost base more efficient. At the same time, we continue to invest in the digitalisation of our core platform and customer facing propositions. In October the Group launched the first product on its new savings platform to Kent Reliance customers and will expand the range of products available over the coming months. The expected underlying cost to income ratio remains at c.36% for 2024.

    Three months plus arrears balances increased by 10bps to 1.7% as at 30 September (30 June 2024: 1.6%) in line with management expectations as long-term fixed rate mortgages mature and transfer to higher prevailing rates. The Group’s secured loan book benefitted from a small impairment release in the third quarter as the Group adopted improved forward-looking macroeconomic scenarios.

    Capital and liquidity remain strong and the Group is reviewing the recently published Basel 3.1 capital standards which will be implemented on 1 January 2026. There remain areas of clarification and until these are finalised, our guidance on the impact for the Group at implementation is unchanged at slightly less than two percentage points on the Group’s CET1 ratio which stood at 16.2% at 30 June 2024. The Group has repurchased £32.1m worth of shares under the £50m repurchase programme announced in August.2

    Andy Golding, CEO of OSB GROUP PLC, said:

    “Looking forward, whilst challenges remain, there are signs of a gradual return of confidence in our core markets and we are seeing increased applications in our more cyclical businesses. The potential impact on the future plans of professional landlords due to the increase in stamp duty on second properties introduced following the recent budget is being monitored. We have a diversified loan book with proven capabilities in multi-property professional Buy-to-Let lending and specialist residential mortgages and continue to invest in our business to ensure it is fit for the future.”

    1. Underlying refers to results which exclude acquisition-related items arising from the Combination with CCFS
    2. As at market close on 5 November 2024

    Financial calendar for 2025*

    13 March 2025 2024 year end results
    30 April 2025 Q1 trading update
    8 May 2025 AGM
    20 August 2025 2025 half year results
    6 November 2025 Q3 trading update

    * All dates are subject to change

    Enquiries:

    OSB GROUP PLC

    Alastair Pate, Investor Relations        t: 01634 838 973

    Brunswick Group         

    Robin Wrench / Simone Selzer        t: 020 7404 5959

    About OSB GROUP PLC
    OneSavings Bank plc (OSB) began trading as a bank on 1 February 2011 and was admitted to the main market of the London Stock Exchange in June 2014 (OSB.L). OSB joined the FTSE 250 index in June 2015. On 4 October 2019, OSB acquired Charter Court Financial Services Group plc (CCFS) and its subsidiary businesses. On 30 November 2020, OSB GROUP PLC became the listed entity and holding company for the OSB Group. The Group provides specialist lending and retail savings and is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority, part of the Bank of England, and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. The Group reports under two segments, OneSavings Bank and Charter Court Financial Services.

    OneSavings Bank (OSB)
    OSB primarily targets market sub-sectors that offer high growth potential and attractive risk-adjusted returns in which it can take a leading position and where it has established expertise, platforms and capabilities. These include private rented sector Buy-to-Let, commercial and semi-commercial mortgages, residential development finance, bespoke and specialist residential lending, secured funding lines and asset finance.

    OSB originates mortgages via specialist brokers and independent financial advisers through its specialist brands including Kent Reliance for Intermediaries and InterBay Commercial. It is differentiated through its use of highly skilled, bespoke underwriting and efficient operating model.

    OSB is predominantly funded by retail savings originated through the long-established Kent Reliance name, which includes online as well as a network of branches in the Southeast of England. Diversification of funding is currently provided by securitisation programmes and the Bank of England’s Term Funding Scheme with additional incentives for SMEs.

    Charter Court Financial Services Group (CCFS)
    CCFS focuses on providing Buy-to-Let and specialist residential mortgages, mortgage servicing, administration and retail savings products. It operates through its brands: Precise and Charter Savings Bank.

    It is differentiated through risk management expertise and automated technology and systems, ensuring efficient processing, strong credit and collateral risk control and speed of product development and innovation. These factors have enabled strong balance sheet growth whilst maintaining high credit quality mortgage assets.

    CCFS is predominantly funded by retail savings originated through its Charter Savings Bank brand. Diversification of funding is currently provided by securitisation programmes and the Bank of England’s Term Funding Scheme with additional incentives for SMEs.

    Important disclaimer

    This document should be read in conjunction with any other documents or announcements distributed by OSB GROUP PLC (OSBG) through the Regulatory News Service (RNS). This document is not audited and contains certain forward-looking statements with respect to the business, strategy and plans of OSBG, its current goals, beliefs, intentions, strategies and expectations relating to its future financial condition, performance and results. Such forward-looking statements include, without limitation, those preceded by, followed by or that include the words ‘targets’, ‘believes’, ‘estimates’, ‘expects’, ‘aims’, ‘intends’, ‘will’, ‘may’, ‘anticipates’, ‘projects’, ‘plans’, ‘forecasts’, ‘outlook’, ‘likely’, ‘guidance’, ‘trends’, ‘future’, ‘would’, ‘could’, ‘should’ or similar expressions or negatives thereof but are not the exclusive means of identifying such statements. Statements that are not historical or current facts, including statements about OSBG’s, its directors’ and/or management’s beliefs and expectations, are forward-looking statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend upon circumstances that may or may not occur in the future that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual business, strategy, plans and/or results (including but not limited to the payment of dividends) to differ materially from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions expressed in such forward-looking statements made by OSBG or on its behalf include, but are not limited to: general economic and business conditions in the UK and internationally; market related trends and developments; fluctuations in exchange rates, stock markets, inflation, deflation, interest rates, energy prices and currencies; policies of the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and other G7 central banks; the ability to access sufficient sources of capital, liquidity and funding when required; changes to OSBG’s credit ratings; the ability to derive cost savings; changing demographic developments, and changing customer behaviour, including consumer spending, saving and borrowing habits; changes in customer preferences; changes to borrower or counterparty credit quality; instability in the global financial markets, including Eurozone instability, the potential for countries to exit the European Union (the EU) or the Eurozone, and the impact of any sovereign credit rating downgrade or other sovereign financial issues; technological changes and risks to cyber security; natural and other disasters, adverse weather and similar contingencies outside OSBG’s control; inadequate or failed internal or external processes, people and systems; terrorist acts and other acts of war (including, without limitation, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war and any continuation and escalation of such conflicts) or hostility and responses to those acts; the conflict in the Middle East; geopolitical events and diplomatic tensions; the impact of outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics or other such events; changes in laws, regulations, taxation, ESG reporting standards, accounting standards or practices, including as a result of the UK’s exit from the EU; regulatory capital or liquidity requirements and similar contingencies outside OSBG’s control; the policies and actions of governmental or regulatory authorities in the UK, the EU or elsewhere including the implementation and interpretation of key legislation and regulation; the ability to attract and retain senior management and other employees; the extent of any future impairment charges or write-downs caused by, but not limited to, depressed asset valuations, market disruptions and illiquid markets; market relating trends and developments; exposure to regulatory scrutiny, legal proceedings, regulatory investigations or complaints; changes in competition and pricing environments; the inability to hedge certain risks economically; the adequacy of loss reserves; the actions of competitors, including non-bank financial services and lending companies; the success of OSBG in managing the risks of the foregoing; and other risks inherent to the industries and markets in which OSBG operates.

    Accordingly, no reliance may be placed on any forward-looking statement. Neither OSBG, nor any of its directors, officers or employees provides any representation, warranty or assurance that any of these statements or forecasts will come to pass or that any forecast results will be achieved. Any forward-looking statements made in this document speak only as of the date they are made and it should not be assumed that they have been revised or updated in the light of new information of future events. Except as required by the Prudential Regulation Authority, the Financial Conduct Authority, the London Stock Exchange PLC or applicable law, OSBG expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained in this document to reflect any change in OSBG’s expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based. For additional information on possible risks to OSBG’s business, (which may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statement), please see the Risk review section in the OSBG Annual Report and Accounts 2023. Copies of this are available at www.osb.co.uk and on request from OSBG.

    Nothing in this document or any subsequent discussion of this document constitutes or forms part of a public offer under any applicable law or an offer or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or financial instruments. Nor does it constitute advice or a recommendation with respect to such securities or financial instruments, or any invitation or inducement to engage in investment activity under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance. Statements about historical performance must not be construed to indicate that future performance, share price or results in any future period will necessarily match or exceed those of any prior period. Nothing in this document is intended to be, or should be construed as, a profit forecast or estimate for any period.

    In regard to any information provided by third parties, neither OSBG nor any of its directors, officers or employees explicitly or implicitly guarantees that such information is exact, up to date, accurate, comprehensive or complete. In no event shall OSBG be liable for any use by any party of, for any decision made or action taken by any party in reliance upon, or for inaccuracies or errors in, or omission from, any third-party information contained herein. Moreover, in reproducing such information by any means, OSBG may introduce any changes it deems suitable, may omit partially or completely any aspect of the information from this document, and accepts no liability whatsoever for any resulting discrepancy.

    Liability arising from anything in this document shall be governed by English law, and neither OSBG nor any of its affiliates, advisors or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this document. Nothing in this document shall exclude any liability under applicable laws that cannot be excluded in accordance with such laws.

    Certain figures contained in this document, including financial information, may have been subject to rounding adjustments and foreign exchange conversions. Accordingly, in certain instances, the sum or percentage change of the numbers contained in this document may not conform exactly to the total figure given.

    Non-IFRS performance measures

    OSBG believes that any non-IFRS performance measures included in this document provide a more consistent basis for comparing the business’ performance between financial periods and provide more detail concerning the elements of performance which OSBG is most directly able to influence or which are relevant for an assessment of OSBG. They also reflect an important aspect of the way in which operating targets are defined and performance is monitored by the Board. However, any non-IFRS performance measures in this document are not a substitute for IFRS measures and readers should consider the IFRS measures as well. For further details, refer to the Alternative Performance Measures section in the OSBG Annual Report and Accounts 2023. Copies of this are available at www.osb.co.uk and on request from OSBG.

    The MIL Network –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Luigi Federico Signorini: The journey to financial well-being through financial inclusion

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Today’s event will explore the connection between financial inclusion and financial well-being. Why is this important?

    Financial inclusion has become a widely shared goal of government policies and a topic of interest for central banks and financial authorities at the international level. It has received a lot of attention over the years as an instrument to foster growth, reduce inequalities, increase employment, and alleviate poverty.1 Financial inclusion may help people cope with macroeconomic and idiosyncratic shocks, as it facilitates financial planning and the intertemporal shift of financial resources.

    From the policymaker’s standpoint financial inclusion is important as it improves the individual’s economic and financial well-being, whilst having a positive impact on the economy as whole. Studies find that the benefits of financial inclusion can be substantial even in countries with well-developed financial markets, because it can translate into higher wealth accumulation and greater resilience of low-income households. Other studies, focusing on emerging and developing countries, find that increased usage of bank accounts via debit cards has boosted the saving rate significantly because it reduces transaction costs for people to access their money.2

    The digitalisation of finance has significantly contributed to promoting financial inclusion through more efficient and effective technologies and through increased competition, which leads to higher quality products and services and to lower costs. Over the last decades, notable progress has been made around the world in increasing access to financial products and services for more individuals, with 76 per cent of people worldwide having a bank or mobile money account in 2021. This represents a significant increase from 2011 when the figure stood at 51 per cent.3

    Nonetheless, progress has been uneven across regions, even controlling for income levels. Increased access to digital financial products and services has not translated, in some cases, into higher actual usage of financial products and services. Moreover, in some instances, financial innovation has resulted in the lower financial inclusion of rural households4 or in the worsened financial well-being of individuals, particularly as the result of over-indebtedness and exposure to fraud and scams.5

    Possible causes include market failures, lack of competition, inadequate consumer protection rules and an insufficient level of digital and financial literacy.6 Even in advanced countries – where the offer of financial services is regulated and transparent, and consumers are better protected from intermediaries’ improper behaviour – authorities continue to consider how to improve the regulatory environment to manage new risks.

    A specific matter of concern is the exclusion of those who do not possess adequate digital skills for accessing and using the financial services. The data show that the elderly, those with lower education levels, and those living in rural areas suffer from limited access. The shift to digital channels will continue; appropriate actions need to be put into place to ensure that everybody can reap its benefits.

    It is generally understood that financial inclusion has three dimensions: access, use and quality. The first is the possibility for individuals to access basic financial services and products. The second is the actual ability of individuals to use such services and products in an effective way. The third (and subtler) dimension consists in creating the conditions for financial services and products to work best to improve people’s financial well-being.

    Progress along all three dimensions – access, use and quality – should ideally be simultaneous. Achieving better results on all three fronts is important to ensure the empowerment of consumers, so that markets can actually work in their best interest.

    The first dimension requires good infrastructures, which are a prerequisite for enabling the efficient and secure provision of financial services. It also requires a competitive environment, to foster higher cost-efficiency, a more diversified offering of financial products and services, and greater consumer choice.

    The second and third dimensions require consumer protection measures and financial education.

    Ex ante transparency rules work to ensure that customers are well informed before purchasing a financial product. Ex post rules need to envisage effective recourse if something goes wrong. Conduct supervision monitors the correct implementation of rules. Free and open competition is once again essential to enable consumers to exploit the full potential of transparency and conduct rules.

    Nothing, however, will work very well unless consumers are endowed with the minimum knowledge that is necessary (1) to make effective use of the information provided, (2) to activate in practice the tools through which services are offered, (3) to compare in a meaningful way the products offered on the market, and (4) to take full advantage of consumer protection rules. Therefore, financial and digital education initiatives are important.

    Given the growing complexity of financial markets, and the new opportunities offered by digitalisation, the Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion (GPFI) has shifted its focus from simple access to financial services, which was originally its main objective, to fostering the use of financial services and understanding the conditions under which financial inclusion can enhance financial well-being.

    Last September, Her Majesty Queen Máxima of the Netherlands, Honorary Patron of the GPFI, after having spent 15 years as United Nations Special Advocate for Inclusive Finance for Development was given a new role focusing specifically on financial health (Secretary-General’s Special Advocate for Financial Health). This also marks a change in perspective towards the need to focus on the actual outcomes of financial inclusion.

    Data are useful. The Global Findex database, maintained by the World Bank, is a valuable tool for evaluating progress on access and usage of financial services. More work may be needed on the quality dimension; concepts, statistics and pre-conditions for comparability are all thorny issues, and it is probably appropriate to rely on a set of different indicators rather than concentrate on a single one.

    Once again: the issue is empowerment, not paternalism – or, as one should perhaps say, parentalism. In all this, there should be no presumption that the regulator, even the best intentioned one, is in a position to take decisions for the consumer. Comprehensive financial education and a robust framework of consumer protection rules are the best tools available to us to enable consumers to make their choices in full awareness of the opportunities and risks.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Rosanna Costa: Medium – and long-run trends in interest rates – causes and implications for monetary policy

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    1. Welcome Remarks

    Good morning to all the speakers, discussants, the organizers of this event, Atif Mian, Sofia Bauducco, Mariana García and Lucciano Villacorta, and everyone who is here attending in person and to those following us via streaming. We welcome you to the twenty-seventh Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile entitled “Medium- and Long-Run Trends in Interest Rates: Causes and Implications for Monetary Policy.”

    Since 1997, the Central Bank of Chile (BCCh) has been convening prominent scholars and policymakers to this Conference to discuss major issues in central banking and their implications for emerging economies. Since its inception, this Conference has served as a bridge between academics and policymakers. This version is no exception: fresh and thoughtful research will support the discussion over the next two days on a topic that is very much front and center on the policy agenda. We will enjoy the presentations of seven authors, seven discussants, two keynote speakers, and a policy panel.

    2. Motivation and context

    This year’s conference tackles a topic that is increasingly at the forefront of economic discussions: the future trajectory of long-run real interest rates, their potential determinants, and the implications for monetary policy. The timing of this topic couldn’t be more relevant, especially in light of the sharpest and most synchronized monetary tightening we have seen in decades.

    As we all know, central banks in advanced economies have recently started lowering their policy rates and in many emerging economies this normalization process has been under way for some time now. Even so, policy rates had risen significantly over the past two years from their record lows in decades. This shift has sparked a lively debate regarding the future of medium- and long-run trends in the real rates; specifically, whether policy rates will revert to their pre-pandemic lows or will settle at a higher level.

    Opinions on this matter vary widely among experts and I think there is not a clear consensus on what the long run interest rates will look like in the future. On the one hand, there are reasons to believe that real interest rates are likely to revert to their historical lows, as the key factors that were mainly thought to have driven these rates down over the past forty years-such as demographic shifts, stagnant productivity growth, increased market power, higher risk aversion and sustained demand for safe assets-do not seem likely to revert sufficiently to produce a significant and lasting increase in real interest rates in the coming years.

    On the other hand, recent market indicators suggest that equilibrium long-term real interest rates have risen. Also, some new estimates of the natural interest rate-defined as the “long-run” equilibrium rate after shocks have dissipated-indicates that this rate may have risen in several advanced countries in the past few years. As I will discuss in a while, this shift could indicate that at least some structural drivers of real interest rates have changed direction or that the natural interest rate is adjusting to a new economic environment possibly characterized by higher levels of public debt.

    The future evolution of the natural interest rate has significant implications for monetary policy. Accurately assessing the long-run trend of the natural rate is essential for central banks, as this rate serves as a crucial reference point for monetary policy. The difference between the real interest rate and the natural rate provides valuable insight into a central bank’s monetary stance and aids in evaluating various policy options.

    However, the natural rate is an abstract concept, and its estimates often carry considerable uncertainty, particularly in the post-pandemic period. Since the natural rate is not directly observable, understanding its determinants has become vital for effective monetary policy. I am confident that the fruitful discussions we will have during this conference will deepen our understanding of these determinants and clarify where natural rates and other relevant interest rates may stand in the years ahead.

    In these opening remarks, I would like to take a moment to briefly review the key empirical long run trends we have observed in interest rates, as well as the primary explanations put forth in the literature. Following that, I will walk you through the main agenda of the Conference.

    3. Drivers behind the trends in interest rates

    Over the past forty years (up to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-2021), we have seen a remarkable decline in nominal interest rates across the globe. For example, during the 1981 to 2020 period, nominal returns on U.S. Treasury bonds, both short and long term, dropped significantly. The 2-year Treasury Bills experienced a drop of around 14 percentage points, and 10-year bonds saw a decline of 13 percentage points. During this same period, inflation also fell, albeit to a lesser degree, leading to real rate declines of about 5 and 4 percentage points for the 2- and 10-year bonds, respectively, putting sovereign real interest rates close to zero and even in negative territory for some periods. The decline was not limited to sovereign bond rates; it was also present in the returns on other so-called “safe” assets. Importantly, this downward trend was not exclusive to the United States. Real long-term rates have declined by several percentage points since the early 1980s in both developed and emerging economies, so this appears to be a global phenomenon.

    The global downward trend in observed risk-free rates over an extended period suggests a significant decline in the natural interest rate, often referred to as the “long-run” equilibrium rate. This secular decline has coincided with a relatively stable trajectory in the marginal product of capital, a stable trajectory on the returns on risky assets, and a stable trajectory in the investment rate, particularly in advanced economies. As a result, these patterns are often attributed to factors that have increased the overall supply of savings over the years, alongside factors that have redirected this excess in savings toward the demand for safe assets rather than productive investments.

    In recent years, much of the literature has centered on the hypothesis of a “global saving glut.” This theory suggests that a significant excess of savings from certain countries and affluent groups has led to a marked shift toward safe assets. Consequently, there has been a notable increase in the prices of these assets, accompanied by a decline in interest rates.

    One contributor to this phenomenon was the increased savings from emerging economies, particularly since the 1990s. Factors such as robust economic growth, soaring commodity prices, and high risk aversion all fueled greater savings in these regions. As a result, these economies channeled substantial portions of their savings into global markets, with a significant impact on interest rates in developed countries.

    Another contributor to this saving glut was the increasing savings rates among the wealthiest households in developed nations. As income inequality has risen, rich households have saved a larger share of their income, further contributing to the excess savings phenomenon. Research indicates that the savings of the top 1% in the United States is comparable to the savings generated by the excess from emerging markets, a trend the literature refersto as the “saving glut of the rich.” This dynamic has profound implications for wealth distribution and economic stability.

    Other mentioned explanations for the excess savings are linked to more structural factors, such as the secular stagnation hypothesis, which suggests a persistent decline in potential economic growth that limits investment opportunities, thereby driving savings toward safer assets. Additionally, demographic changes-including declining population growth and longer life expectancy-have influenced savings behavior across generations and regions.

    Finally, rising risk aversion, the declining cost of investment goods, and the substantial increase in corporate power over recent years further explain why this increase in savings has been directed toward safe assets rather than productive investments.

    Over the past 40 years, all these factors have shaped the dynamics of savings, investment, and, consequently, interest rates, each contributing with varying significance during different phases. Looking ahead, the trajectory of interest rates will heavily depend on the uncertain evolution of these drivers.

    The outlook for these structural factors influencing real interest rates is mixed. On the one hand, several key factors behind the pre-pandemic decline in interest rates- such as low potential growth, rising inequality, increasing uncertainty, growing market power, and longer life expectancy- show no significant signs of changing direction. These forces suggest that real interest rates may revert to their declining pre-pandemic trend. On the other hand, additional factors could lead to a sustained rise in rates. These include a decrease in savings due to a growing inactive population, substantial fiscal deficits resulting in very high levels of debt, potential productivity gains from advancements in artificial intelligence, geopolitical risks and climate disasters affecting global savings, and significant investments in the green transition.

    I hope our upcoming discussion will help clarify the direction of these drivers and enhance our understanding of where the natural interest rate may be headed in the future.

    4. Conference contents

    Let me now give a very brief overview of what we will be hearing today and tomorrow:

    The Conference will start with the session “Interest Rates and Macroeconomic Policy” In this session, the paper by Francesco Bianchi, Renato Faccini and Leonardo Melosi examines the role of fiscal policy in shaping the future path of real interest rates. Then, the paper by Gabriel Jiménez, Dmitry Kuvshinov, José-Luis Peydró and Bjorn Richter will look at the links between the path of the monetary policy rate over time and the risk of banking crises from a historical perspective.

    Then, we will continue with the first keynote speech, delivered by Ricardo Reis. He will address the implications of interest rate trends on inflation, as well as the subsequent effects of inflation on these trends.

    We will then transition to our second academic session, which will focus on “Theories of Natural Interest Rates.” The natural interest rate, an abstract concept, is defined as the interest rate that prevails in long-term equilibrium once economic shocks have dissipated and prices are fully flexible. As a latent variable, understanding its determinants and refining its measurement is of paramount importance.

    This session will begin with a paper by Ozge Akinci, Gianluca Beningno, Marco del Negro, and Albert Queralto, who propose a complementary concept referred to as the Financial (In) Stability Real Interest Rate. While the natural interest rate is typically associated with macroeconomic stability, this new concept emphasizes the critical importance of financial stability. Following this presentation, Galo Nuño will discuss three theories concerning natural interest rates. Traditional theories often highlight structural drivers such as technological advancement and demographic changes. However, Galo’s paper will challenge this conventional view, exploring how factors such as public debt, household inequality, the zero lower bound, and persistent negative supply shocks may influence natural interest rates.

    To conclude this session, we will hear from Elías Albagli, Sofia Bauducco, Guillermo Carlomagno, Luis Gonzales, and Juan Marcos Wlasiuk, who will discuss the potential impacts of climate change and escalating geopolitical tensions on long-term interest rates.

    The second day will begin with the keynote speech titled “Long-Run Interest Rates: Past, Present, and Future” by Atif Mian. He will explore the interconnections between interest rates and both private and public debt over time. Atif will first address the role of inequality in explaining the simultaneous decline in interest rates and the rise in debt over the past few decades. He will then examine the dynamics of debt, discussing an appropriate constraint on interest rates to prevent explosive borrowing. Finally, he will focus on estimating future yields.

    Next, we will transition to the session titled “Interest Rates, Inflation, and Transmission to Emerging Markets.” This session will open with the paper “U.S. Anti-Inflationary Policy and Emerging Economies: 1980 vs. 2020s” by Drishan Banerjee, Galina Hale, and Harrison Shieh. Their paper analyzes macroeconomic data from advanced and emerging economies in the 1980s and 2020s to highlight differences in how U.S. monetary policies have impacted emerging markets in these two distinct periods. The second paper in this session, by Francisco Legaspe and Liliana Varela, will show how country-specific risks, such as political uncertainty and risk on debt repayment explain excess returns from investing in local currency assets in LATAM countries. Finally, a policy panel featuring Elias Albagli, Jean-Marc Natal, Boris Hofmann, and Ricardo Reis will offer insights into the future of interest rates and their implications for monetary policy in emerging economies. 

    5. Acknowledgements

    I would like to especially thank Atif Mian for being the external organizer of this Conference, as well as locals Sofia Bauducco, Mariana García and Lucciano Villacorta for putting togethersuch a wonderful program. I also thank all the speakers and contributors and look forward to the Conference volume that we will publish in some months with its formatted contents.

    Let me finish by thanking María José Reyes, Constanza Martinelli, Carolina Besa, Daniela Gaete, Daphne Guiloff, Pablo Barros, and both the Public Affairs Department and the Economic Research Department of the Central Bank of Chile for all their invaluable help managing the logistics of organizing this Annual Conference.

    I wish you a fruitful discussion over the next two days.

    Thank you.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Renovation program: 30 new buildings are being built on the site of old houses in the South-East Administrative District

    Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Moscow Government – Government of Moscow –

    In the South-Eastern Administrative District (SEAD) of the capital, 30 new buildings are being built on the site of old housing stock under the renovation program. This was reported by the Deputy Mayor of Moscow for Urban Development Policy and Construction Vladimir Efimov.

    “The South-Eastern Administrative District is one of the leaders in relocating residents from old housing stock to new buildings under the renovation program. Thus, today in the southeast of the capital, 135 houses have been resettled, 81 of which have already been dismantled. Now 30 new buildings are being erected on the site of the demolition. The total area of apartments in them will exceed 480 thousand square meters. This will provide new housing to about 17 thousand city residents,” said Vladimir Efimov.

    According to the renovation program in the South-East Administrative District, 818 houses are to be resettled. More than 164 thousand city residents will move into new apartments.

    “The houses being built on the sites of demolished buildings are located in seven districts of the South-East Administrative District and are designed for approximately 8.5 thousand apartments. The leader in terms of construction is the Kuzminki district, where 10 residential complexes are being built under the renovation program – almost 2.9 thousand apartments with finished improved finishing will appear here. Nine houses are being built in Lublin, designed for a total of almost 2.6 thousand apartments, and in the Ryazan district – four buildings, which will house more than 1.7 thousand apartments,” added the Minister of the Moscow Government, head of the capital’s Department of Urban Development Policy

    Vladislav Ovchinsky.

    In the South-Eastern Administrative District, 135 houses have already been resettled, where more than 24.6 thousand people lived. In the Lyublino district, almost 6.1 thousand city residents from 31 completely resettled houses have become the owners of new apartments. In Kuzminki, more than 5.8 thousand residents have moved from 29 completely vacated buildings, noted the Minister of the Moscow Government, Head of the Department of City Property Maxim Gaman.

    In addition, in the Nizhegorodsky District, more than 3.5 thousand city residents from 24 resettled houses signed contracts for new apartments under the renovation program, in the Lefortovo District – over 2.5 thousand residents from 17 such houses. In the Ryazansky District, 16 buildings were completely resettled, almost 3.2 thousand people received new apartments.

    As the Chairman of the Moscow State Construction Supervision Authority noted Anton Slobodchikov, the south-east of the capital is also leading in terms of the volume of prospective construction under the renovation program. Since the beginning of the year, the State Construction Supervision Committee of the City of Moscow has issued permits for the construction of seven buildings in the South-East Administrative District, designed for a total of more than 2.3 thousand apartments with an area of over 134.6 thousand square meters. New buildings will appear in the Vykhino-Zhulebino, Lyublino, Kuzminki and Ryazansky districts.

    Renovation program approved in August 2017. It concerns about a million Muscovites and provides for the resettlement of 5,176 houses. In 2023 alone, 59 new buildings in the capital were handed over for settlement and the relocation of over 47 thousand people was ensured. Earlier, Sergei Sobyanin ordered to increase the pace of implementation of the renovation program has doubled. For these purposes, the draft budget for three years 1.2 trillion rubles have been pledged.

    Moscow is one of the leaders among regions in terms of construction rates and volumes. Over the past five years, within the framework of the federal project “Housing” of the national project “Housing and Urban Environment” the volume of construction and commissioning of residential properties in the capital has doubled – from three million to five to seven million square meters per year. More information about the national projects being implemented in Moscow can be found find out here.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    http://vvv.mos.ru/nevs/item/146154073/

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: 387 properties have been purchased by small and medium-sized businesses under preemptive rights since the beginning of the year

    Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Moscow Government – Government of Moscow –

    Since the beginning of the year, tenants of capital real estate have bought out almost 400 properties under the right of first refusal. This was reported by the Minister of the Moscow Government, Head of the Department of City Property Maxim Gaman.

    “Small and medium-sized businesses that rent buildings and non-residential premises from the city can buy them out under the right of first refusal. Over the first nine months of 2024, entrepreneurs have privatized 387 properties with a total area of almost 57 thousand square meters in this way. This is 32 percent more than in the same period last year, which indicates high business activity in the capital,” said Maxim Gaman.

    Preemptive redemption is a measure to support small and medium-sized businesses. It is available to entrepreneurs who have been renting real estate from the city for at least one year and have been included inregister of small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs). The lease term for non-residential premises sold at auctions for small businesses is at least two years. The property has been in thelist of objects, intended for SMEs.

    Transactions are concluded without holding auctions. The value of the object in this case is equal to the market value, it is determined by independent appraisers. Tenants can buy the property in installments from five to seven years. The overwhelming majority of entrepreneurs use this.

    Among the registered properties are more than 380 premises with a total area of over 53.5 thousand square meters, as well as three buildings with an area of over 2.7 thousand square meters.

    The most popular properties among entrepreneurs are in the city center. SMEs bought 65 premises and two separate buildings with a total area of almost 11.6 thousand square meters in the Central Administrative District. In the south of the capital, small and medium businesses registered 50 premises as their property, with a total area of approximately 6.6 thousand square meters, and in the southwest — more than 40 properties with an area of about eight thousand square meters.

    To buy out the property, the tenant can use the state online service “Paid alienation of real estate leased by small and medium-sized businesses from the state property of the city of Moscow”. Sales and purchase agreements are concluded electronically.

    Development of electronic services for business corresponds to the objectives of the national project “Digital Economy”. You can find out more about this and other national projects being implemented in Moscow Here.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    http://vvv.mos.ru/nevs/item/146230073/

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: HK’s advantages promoted in Ottawa

    Source: Hong Kong Information Services

    Continuing a visit to Canada, Secretary for Innovation, Technology & Industry Prof Sun Dong delivered a keynote speech at a Seminar on Life Science & Global Health, held at the Parliament Building in Ottawa.

    Prof Sun said that while Canada is a long-recognised powerhouse in the field of life and health science, Hong Kong is emerging as an international innovation and technology (I&T) centre.

    He then outlined a number of advantages that Hong Kong enjoys in relation to the development of life and health technologies.

    Hong Kong’s flagship research and development initiative, InnoHK, has established collaborations with more than 30 world-renowned universities and research institutes in 12 economies, including Canada. It has set up 29 research laboratories,16 of them focused on healthcare-related technologies. Also in place are a $6 billion subsidy programme supporting local universities to set up life and health technology research institutes, and a $3 billion Frontier Technology Research Support Scheme to accelerate cross-disciplinary research.

    He said: “We will set up the InnoLife Healthtech Hub in the Hetao Hong Kong Park (the Loop) to attract top-notch research teams and talent from around the world. We will allocate another $2 billion to support the InnoHK research clusters to establish (a) presence in the Loop, and $200 million to support startups in the Loop engaging in life and health technology in the form of incubation and acceleration programmes.”

    New land will be made available in San Tin Technopole to support I&T industry development, creating synergy with the nearby Shenzhen I&T Zone, he added.

    He also outlined that Hong Kong is the best platform for connecting Mainland I&T talent and companies with those from around the world, as the city possesses the distinctive advantages of enjoying strong national support and being closely connected to the world under “one country, two systems”.

    Prof Sun also met a Canadian senator and a member of the country’s parliament to discuss ways of enhancing collaboration on science, innovation and research between Hong Kong and Canada, as well as fostering people-to-people and cultural exchanges.

    Separately, Prof Sun called on Chinese Ambassador to Canada Wang Di to brief him on the progress of developing Hong Kong into an international I&T centre, as well as the city’s efforts to integrate into the nation’s I&T development. The tech chief said that Hong Kong spares no effort in developing new quality productive forces tailored to local conditions, including in its pursuit of new industrialisation, and its increased investment for I&T industries.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: LCQ12: Sealing up corridor-facing louvres of public rental housing flats

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

    LCQ12: Sealing up corridor-facing louvres of public rental housing flats
    LCQ12: Sealing up corridor-facing louvres of public rental housing flats
    ************************************************************************

         Following is a question by the Hon Yang Wing-kit and a written reply by the Secretary for Housing, Ms Winnie Ho, in the Legislative Council today (November 6): Question:      It has been reported that in recent months, the Housing Department (HD) has posted notices in some public rental housing (PRH) estates, stating that the HD must undertake fire safety improvement works pursuant to the requirements of the Fire Safety (Buildings) Ordinance (Cap. 572), including sealing up all domestic flat louvres facing common exit corridors with fire-‍resisting boards in phases starting from next year. In this connection, will the Government inform this Council: (1) of the numbers of PRH estates and domestic flats involved in the aforesaid works, as well as the implementation schedules; (2) as some PRH tenants are worried that their flats will become poorly-‍lit due to the lack of lighting penetration from the corridors after the relevant works, whether the HD has studied the alternative options, including allocating resources to seal up the louvres with fire-resisting glasses instead of fire-resisting boards, so as to retain the effect of light penetration; if so, of the details; if not, the reasons for that; (3) whether it will assist PRH tenants who have modified their louvres on their own to remove externally-attached objects and carry out reinstatement works, with a waiver of the relevant expenses; if so, of the details; if not, the reasons for that; and (4) whether it will step up publicity and explanation efforts, so that the affected PRH tenants can gain an understanding of the procedures and implementation progress of the relevant works; if so, of the details; if not, the reasons for that? Reply: President,      In consultation with the Buildings Department (BD) and Hong Kong Fire Services Department (FSD), the consolidated reply to the question raised by the Hon Yang Wing-kit is set out below:           According to the Fire Safety (Buildings) Ordinance (Cap. 572) (the Ordinance), composite and domestic buildings constructed on or before March 1, 1987, or with the plans of the buildings works first submitted to the Building Authority for approval on or before that day (the target buildings) are required to upgrade the fire safety standards to meet modern fire protection requirements. Currently, under the Housing Authority, there are 477 public rental housing (PRH) blocks in 64 estates regulated by the Ordinance.      Since the Ordinance came into effect on July 1, 2007, the Housing Department (HD) has been in close liaison with the BD and FSD to formulate feasible fire safety improvement proposals and implementation details for the target buildings, including conducting assessments of the target buildings; appointing fire engineering consultants to study the works details; as well as liaising with the BD and FSD on the vetting and acceptance processes, etc. The HD has been implementing the improvement works taking into account the difficulty and priority of the projects and basing on the acceptance progress of improvement proposals, scope of works, and co-ordination with other maintenance programmes of the target buildings concerned. In fact, shortly after the Ordinance took effect, some improvement works which are comparatively easy to implement, such as replacement of fire doors and installation of emergency lighting systems, have commenced by phase. Considering the large number of target buildings with varying architectural layout and designs, the HD, BD and FSD have been in close liaison in conducting joint inspections to each target building by phase to determine the required scope of fire safety improvement works for each building. The HD also submitted fire safety improvement proposals based on the requirements and subsequently arranged the necessary improvement works at once upon receipt of the acceptance from the BD and FSD.      With regard to the louver enclosure works at the older PRH blocks, the fire engineering consultant pointed out that the domestic flats concerned are with louvers facing the internal corridor, which is not separated from the escape staircases. Therefore, in the event of fire accidents, the louvers of these flats could not resist fire and smoke, leading to proliferation of fire and smoke through the louvers to the internal corridor or other flats. Notwithstanding that some tenants had adopted different materials and methods to enclose the louvers on their own in the past years for privacy, sound insulation or security concerns, these materials or methods might not render effective fire resistance. The HD is aware that tenants may have different views on the louver enclosure works. Therefore, upon confirmation of the necessity of the enclosure works to enhance fire protection in 2018, the HD requested fire engineering consultants to conduct an in-depth investigation to explore the feasibility of using various materials or methods to formulate the most suitable approach.       Our reply to various parts of the question is as follows:      (1) The enclosure works involved around 240 PRH blocks in 53 estates of around 136 000 domestic flats. The HD first commenced the enclosure works in Fu Shan Estate in late October 2024, and the enclosure works will be progressively arranged in other estates concerned. (2) After a thorough study on the feasibility and safety of the enclosure works, upon on-site inspections and multiple discussions with the BD and FSD, the HD has decided to enclose the louver windows facing internal corridors with fire-resisting boards to enhance fire protection. In selection of enclosure materials, the HD has taken into account a wide range of criteria including the impact on the width of internal corridor as the means of escape, the specifications, supply of materials, cost, fire resistance, installation procedures, future maintenance, impact on tenants, etc. In fact, sufficient natural lighting and ventilation has been provided for all relevant domestic flats through balconies and windows. (3) The HD has deliberated on the specification details and work procedures of the enclosure works. Generally, works could be carried out outside domestic flats. Tenants are not required to attend or bear any cost. If tenants have enclosed the louvers on their own, no reinstatement by tenants is required. The HD will provide necessary assistance to residents for removal of their belongings hung on louvers. (4) In order to familiarise tenants with the arrangement details of the louver enclosure works, before the commencement of works in Fu Shan Estate, the HD posted notices and photos at the lift lobby on the ground floor and at the lobby on all floors in the PRH blocks concerned, displayed the mock-up of the enclosed louver in the estates, issued letters to affected households, and briefly introduced the progress of the works in Estate Newsletter. During the period of late September to early October 2024, the HD met with a number of Wong Tai Sin District Council members respectively to introduce and answer the enquiries about the relevant fire safety improvement works. In early October 2024, the HD also convened a briefing session on fire safety improvement works with the BD and FSD for tenants of Fu Shan Estate to introduce the Ordinance and the relevant works arrangement. Through the aforesaid publicity and explanatory work, the louver enclosure works in Fu Shan Estate has been implemented smoothly and no complaint related to the relevant works was received during the works period.      The HD will make reference to the practice of Fu Shan Estate in conducting the publicity and explanatory work to PRH tenants in proceeding relevant improvement works in other PRH estates in future.

     
    Ends/Wednesday, November 6, 2024Issued at HKT 15:05

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    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI China: Republican Party projected to win majority in US Senate

    Source: China State Council Information Office

    The Republican Party was projected by multiple U.S. media to win back the majority in the U.S. Senate early Wednesday after flipping two seats from the Democratic Party.

    The two seats the Republicans won back from the Democrats are in the states of Ohio and West Virginia, with Bernie Moreno and Jim Justice emerging victorious, respectively.

    With 66 seats not up for election this year and ballots still being tabulated in states in which races are underway, the current composition of the 100-seat upper chamber is 51 seats for the GOP and 42 for Democrats.

    Which party controls the Senate will have a huge impact on the country’s legislative agenda in the years ahead, as well as the makeup of the next presidential administration’s cabinet.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI: Crédit Agricole Assurances: Steady growth across all our business lines

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    Release                                                  Paris, November 6th 2024

    Steady growth across all our business lines

    9M 2024 KEY FIGURES:

    • Total revenue1of 32.8 billion euros, up +18.2%2
    • Net inflows of +4.2 billion euros of which +1.1 billion on the General Account
    • Contribution to Crédit Agricole S.A.’s Net Income Group Share2of 1,466 million euros, up +11.3%2

    “These new interim results confirm the momentum already seen in the 1st half of last year in all our business lines, both in France and internationally. These results are driven by the commitment of Crédit Agricole Assurances teams and our partner banks; a commitment to serving our customers that is currently particularly expressed through the handling of the damages caused by storms Kirk and Leslie. In an uncertain economic and geopolitical environment, these results illustrate the increased need for protection expressed by our customers, as reflected in the increase in life outstandings entrusted to us, and in the growth in the number of solutions to deal with life’s hazards.

    This confidence is also reflected in the latest S&P rating, which confirms our financial strength and the relevance of our model as an integrated insurer within the Crédit Agricole Group.

    During this final quarter, in line with our social project, we will be focusing on the prevention and detection of health risks, which is the theme of the new edition of our Innov&Act start-up challenge. This will enable us to identify innovative projects to improve the response to our customers’ protection needs, and society as a whole.

    Once again, I would like to thank all our team members, as well as Crédit Agricole’s Regional Banks and LCL for these great achievements”.

    Nicolas Denis, Chief Executive Officer of Crédit Agricole Assurances

    STRONG PERFORMANCE DRIVEN IN PARTICULAR BY SAVINGS AND INTERNATIONAL

    Over the first nine months of 2024, Crédit Agricole Assurances generated premium income1 of €32.8 billion, up +18.2%2 compared with end of September 2023, both in France (+12.6%) and international markets (+54.5%), driven by life insurance thanks to the reshaping of our international product offering and the success of payment bonus campaigns in France.

    In savings/retirement, gross inflows reached €23.9 billion at the end of September 2024, up +23.1% compared to the end of September 2023, fueled by the commercial campaigns launched during the first quarter of 2024, and the recovery in international markets. Combined with the acquisition of a significant group retirement contract, this led to a high level of gross inflows3 on the General Account, at €15.6 billion (+43.8%). Unit-linked gross inflows3 amounted to €8.3 billion, slightly decreasing (-3.5%), due to less favorable market conditions, notably a reduced attractiveness of unit-linked bond products. Consequently, the share of unit-linked within gross inflows fell to 34.8% (down -9.5 points year-on-year).

    Net inflows amounted to +€4.2 billion, up +€5.0 billion compared to end of September 2023. By product, net inflows amounted to +€3.1 billion on unit-linked and +€1.1 billion on General Account, back in positive territory since the last two quarters (+€6.3 billion over one year on General Account).

    Life insurance outstandings4 reached €343.2 billion at the end of September 2024, up +3.9% over nine months, driven by a positive market effect and net inflows. Unit-linked outstandings exceeded the €100 billion mark for the first time, standing at €102.8 billion (+7.7% since January 1, 2024). General Account outstandings have risen by +2.4% since January 1, 2024, to €240.5 billion. Unit-linked represented 29.9% of total life insurance outstandings at the end of September 2024 (+1.0 point over nine months).

    In property and casualty5, gross written premiums1 remained buoyant, rising by +7.8% compared to the end of September 2023, to €4.9 billion. Following the first consolidation of CATU, a Polish non-life insurance subsidiary, the portfolio grew by +5.1% to nearly 16.6 million policies, representing a net addition of more than 500,000 policies over the year; average premium rose as a result of price increases and changes in the product mix.

    Equipment rates within the Crédit Agricole Group’s banking networks kept growing year-on-year, at the Regional Banks (43.8%6, up +0.7 point), LCL (27.9%6, up +0.3 point) and CA Italia (20.0%7, up +1.7 points).

    In personal protection (death and disability/creditor/group insurance8), gross written premiums1 was up +5.7% compared to the end of September 2023, at €4.0 billion, driven by growth in all segments: creditor insurance (+3.4%) benefiting from international single-premium contracts, group insurance (+21.6%) and individual death and disability (+5.6%).

    RESULTS GROWTH IN LINE WITH BUSINESS GROWTH

    The contribution of Crédit Agricole Assurances to Crédit Agricole S.A.’s Net Income Group Share amounted to €1,466 billion, up +11.3%2 year-on-year, reflecting the strong performance across all business lines despite less favorable crop insurance claims than in the third quarter of 2023.

    The combined ratio9 stood at 95.5%, up +0.3 point over the year due to unfavorable discounting effects. The undiscounted net combined ratio slightly improved to 97.7% (-0.2 point year-on-year).

    The Contractual Service Margin10 reached €24.9 billion at the end of September 2024, up +4.5% since 31 December 2023, thanks to the contribution from new business and the stock revaluation in favourable market conditions.

    RATINGS

    Rating agency Date of last review Main operating subsidiaries Crédit Agricole Assurances Outlook Subordinated debt
    S&P Global Ratings October 3, 2024 A+ A Stable BBB+

    KEY EVENTS SINCE THE LAST PUBLICATION

    About Crédit Agricole Assurances

    Crédit Agricole Assurances, France’s largest insurer, is the company of the Crédit Agricole group, which brings together all the insurance businesses of Crédit Agricole S.A. Crédit Agricole Assurances offers a range of products and services in savings, retirement, health, personal protection and property insurance products and services. They are distributed by Crédit Agricole’s banks in France and in 9 countries worldwide, and are aimed at individual, professional, agricultural and business customers. Crédit Agricole Assurances has 5,800 employees. Its premium income (“non-GAAP”) to the end of 2023 amounted to 37.2 billion euros.
    www.ca-assurances.com

    1 Non-GAAP revenue
    2 On a like-for-like basis, excluding the 1stconsolidation of CATU (Crédit Agricole Towaraystow Ubezpieczeń, property and casualty insurance subsidiary in Poland) on 30 June 2024 with retroactive effect from 1 January 2024, changes are: +18.1% for total revenue, +54.0% for international revenue and +11.2% for the contribution to Crédit Agricole S.A.’s Net Income Group Share
    3 In local GAAP

    4 Savings, retirement, death and disability (funeral)
    5 On a like-for-like basis: +7.4% growth in non-life premium income, +3.1% increase in the portfolio; at the end of September 2024, CATU’s portfolio comprised more than 314,000 policies including net addition of +20,800 policies over the year
    6 Percentage of Regional banks and LCL customers with at least one motor, home, health, legal, mobile/portable or personal accident insurance policy marketed by Pacifica, French Crédit Agricole Assurances’ non-life insurance subsidiary
    7 Percentage of CA Italia network customers with at least one policy marketed by CA Assicurazioni, Italian Crédit Agricole Assurances’ non-life insurance subsidiary
    8 Excluding savings/retirement
    9 P&C combined ratio in France (Pacifica) including discounting and excluding undiscounting, net of reinsurance: (claims + operating expenses + commissions) to gross earned premiums
    10 CSM or Contractual Service Margin: corresponds to the profits expected by the insurer from the insurance business over the term of the contracts, for profitable contracts, for Savings, Retirement, Death & Disability and Creditor products.

    Attachment

    The MIL Network –

  • MIL-OSI China: Dalian eases housing policy for graduates

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Dalian, Liaoning province, has rolled out enhanced policies on offering subsidies and incentives for purchasing houses to attract and retain talent, particularly focusing on high-level talents, university graduates and various skilled professionals.

    Graduates are eligible for housing vouchers with values of 100,000 yuan ($14,077) for doctoral degree holders, 50,000 yuan for master’s degree holders and 30,000 yuan for bachelor’s degree holders. Similarly, graduates from colleges, technical schools and vocational schools are also eligible for 30,000 yuan vouchers, which are all valid for one year in four districts in Dalian.

    According to Dalian’s bureau of housing and urban-rural development, there are no restrictions related to the graduation time, household registration or social security payments when graduates apply for these housing vouchers, which are amid the 14 measures issued on Oct 30 to further stabilize and boost the property market.

    “This year, we focus on key groups in housing consumption, tailor-made support measures, aiming to empower talents to stay and contribute to the city’s long-term development,” said Zhu Qi, deputy director of the city’s housing provident fund management center.

    Under the new regulations, the highly talented youth in Dalian can now receive the settlement allowance in a lump sum after obtaining the property rights certificate for a newly-purchased commercial property.

    The city has now raised the maximum housing provident fund loan limits across the board, which for individuals has been raised to 600,000 yuan and for couples to 1 million yuan.

    “Recognized high-level talents can now potentially receive housing provident fund loans up to 2 to 5 times the current maximum loan amount, with families of top-tier talents eligible for a maximum loan of 5 million yuan,” said Zhu.

    He said that in the first nine months of the year, 2,445 housing provident fund loans amounting to 1.68 billion yuan have been disbursed to various talent groups in the city.

    Data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development show that in October, Dalian was among the cities that have seen strong growth in new home sales, up over 30 percent year-on-year.

    The implementation of these new measures has sparked significant attention and discussions. Some expected the increased incentive to boost the property market, while some netizens humorously compared the situation to “buying a Ferrari and receiving a 5 yuan voucher”.

    A local real estate salesperson nicknamed Laowei noted the substantial impact of the policies, expecting that could potentially trigger a surge in demand for new properties in the city’s urban areas.

    “If you’re interested in it, hurry up. After all, there are not so many new homes available,” he said on his social media account with 14,000 followers.

    However, a housing consultant nicknamed Dayang cautioned potential buyers to remain rational.

    Focusing on talent attraction, various regions in China are optimizing policy measures and introducing similar housing incentives.

    In Yancheng, Jiangsu province, top talents, who purchase homes in September and October, are eligible for subsidies amounting to 80 percent of the property’s total price, capped at 3 million yuan, while full-time leading talents can receive up to 500,000 yuan in subsidies.

    Skilled technical personnel and university graduates are entitled to different fixed subsidies, ranging from 200,000 yuan for doctoral candidates to 50,000 yuan for college graduates.

    In Qingdao, Shandong province, a new policy effective from Oct 11 offers additional incentives for doctoral and master’s degree holders to purchase new residential properties as their sole residence.

    Apart from one-time settlement allowances of 150,000 yuan and 100,000 yuan, they are also eligible for housing vouchers valued at 100,000 yuan and 50,000 yuan respectively, valid for one year.

    These measures have echoed with the top leadership’s determination on easing the property purchase restriction. A meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, held on Sept 26, noted that housing purchase restrictions should be adjusted to assuage public concerns.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI NGOs: Mozambique: End violent post-election crackdown ahead of 7 November Maputo march

    Source: Amnesty International –

    Ahead of a major opposition march planned for 7 November in Maputo following disputed elections, Mozambique’s Frelimo-led government must halt its violent and widespread crackdown on human rights and respect everyone’s rights to freedom of expression, peaceful assembly and association, Amnesty International said. 

    The crisis in Mozambique is the country’s worst crackdown on protests in years. Police have killed more than 20 people and injured or arrested hundreds more, according to civil society. Security forces have routinely tried to violently and unlawfully break up peaceful assemblies with tear gas, bullets and arbitrary arrests. Authorities say protesters killed at least one police officer. 

    “The last two weeks in Mozambique have been marked by completely unnecessary bloodshed as authorities have tried to stop a peaceful protest movement with deadly force. The number of casualties increases every day, with authorities deploying weapons of war, including rifles and armoured vehicles, on city streets. People cannot even protest in their own homes without risking tear gassing by police,” said Khanyo Farise, Amnesty International’s Deputy Regional Director for East and Southern Africa. 

    The government has repeatedly cut internet access across the country and blocked social media sites for nearly a week. Unknown gunmen assassinated two leading opposition figures, and opposition leader Venancio Mondlane is in hiding. 

    Mozambique’s government has the primary responsibility to respect and uphold human rights, but neighboring countries and international organizations, including the Southern African Development Community and the African Union, must forcefully speak out now to prevent further unlawful killings and other human rights violations. 

    “This outrageous chapter in Mozambique’s history must end now, and perpetrators must be brought to justice. Mozambique’s government must pull back from the brink to avert further human rights violations,” said Khanyo Farise. 

    MIL OSI NGO –