Category: Natural Disasters

  • MIL-OSI USA: Reps. Judy Chu, Brad Sherman host Congressional Roundtable on Fire Recovery with Los Angeles County Leaders

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Representative Judy Chu (CA2-27)

    WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, Rep. Judy Chu (CA-28) and Rep. Brad Sherman (CA-32) hosted a roundtable with California Members of Congress and Los Angeles County officials to discuss ongoing recovery efforts following January’s devastating Palisades and Eaton Fires. Together, these fires scorched more than 37,000 acres, destroyed over 13,000 homes, displaced tens of thousands of residents, and claimed 30 lives.

    The discussion offered an opportunity for the Members to hear directly from Los Angeles County leaders, including Supervisor Kathryn Barger, Chair of the Board and Supervisor for Altadena and Pasadena, about the ongoing challenges facing fire-impacted communities and the work being done to ensure communities can rebuild swiftly and safely. During the roundtable, Members and LA County officials discussed the status of ongoing debris removal and mitigation, soil testing and remediation, utility restoration, social and medical services, and housing solutions for disaster victims.

    After the roundtable, Rep. Chu and Rep. Sherman released the following joint statement: 

    “In response to the many challenges our communities face following the Los Angeles fires, we were grateful to host today’s roundtable to discuss solutions with LA County officials leading recovery efforts on the ground and advocate for the urgent support our communities need to rebuild.”

    The Members also emphasized the need to protect the federal agencies carrying out disaster recovery operations for their communities from the Trump administration’s mass layoffs of federal workers, including the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Small Business Administration, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), and AmeriCorps . Lastly, the Members emphasized their commitment to securing additional federal disaster funding in Congress so that California disaster victims have the resources they need to rebuild their homes, businesses, and communities — just as Congress has done after every other major disaster across the country.

     Rep. Chu and Rep. Sherman concluded: “We have both consistently voted for disaster aid to Republican-led states regardless of whether we strongly disagreed with their policies, because disasters have no political affiliation. Our constituents have demonstrated so much strength and resolve throughout the course of this catastrophe, and they urgently need and deserve additional federal resources to rebuild their lives. Disaster relief is not and should never be a partisan issue, and we will continue to work with Congressional leadership and President Trump to deliver relief to our communities.

    Far too many families are still living in uncertainty as we work to rebuild after the fires. We are committed to working alongside our local partners to deliver every possible resource to help our communities recover.”

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI USA: Rep. Judy Chu Hosts Wildfire Housing Roundtable and Press Conference

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Representative Judy Chu (CA2-27)

    ALTADENA, CA– Yesterday, Rep. Judy Chu (CA-28) hosted a wildfire recovery housing roundtable and press conference to address the housing needs of survivors displaced by January’s devastating Eaton Fire. The roundtable brought together local nonprofits, housing advocates, and government officials from every level to discuss obstacles her constituents are facing in finding stable, affordable housing in their own communities.

    “In the aftermath of the Eaton Fire, which displaced over 20,000 residents and destroyed thousands of homes, it’s clear that housing is the biggest barrier to recovery,” said Rep. Chu. “FEMA has provided $40 million in Housing Assistance, which has been critical in helping survivors find long-term housing. But there are still survivors who are slipping through the cracks, with many still struggling to secure stable housing in their own communities.”

    Rep. Chu emphasized that FEMA must explore all available options for providing disaster housing assistance, including its Direct Lease program that provides housing directly to survivors. And she continues to urge the Administration to request $40 billion in supplemental disaster assistance needed to support long-term recovery efforts.

    The event provided a platform for community advocates and nonprofit leaders to share their experiences. Organizations in attendance included:

    • Altadena Rising
    • Altadena Town Council
    • Beacon Housing
    • Civic Soul
    • Clergy Community Coalition
    • Change Reaction
    • Community Women Vital Voices
    • CORE
    • Day One
    • Friends In Deed
    • Greenline Housing
    • Habitat for Humanity
    • My Tribe Rise
    • NAACP Pasadena
    • Neighborhood Housing Services

    “These organizations are on the frontlines supporting displaced families and advocating for the resources our community desperately needs,” said Rep. Chu. “I’m deeply grateful for their work, and for sharing their findings with government leaders so we can ensure  no one is left behind.”

    Government agencies participating in the roundtable included:

    • FEMA
    • CalOES
    • U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)
    • California Business, Consumer Services and Housing Agency (BCHS)
    • Los Angeles County Development Authority (LACDA)

    The roundtable and press conference were part of Rep. Chu’s continued commitment to ensure all Eaton Fire survivors receive the support they need to recover, rebuild, and return home.

    Read more about the roundtable here:

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI USA: ICYMI: Rep. Rogers Joins McCrary Institute ‘Cyber Focus’ Podcast

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Mike Rogers (R-AL)

     WASHINGTON – U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers (AL-03), Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, joined the McCrary Institute’s “Cyber Focus” Podcast to discuss the future of national security and Alabama’s role in our nation’s defense.

    The McCrary Institute for Cyber and Critical Infrastructure Security at Auburn University was founded in 2015 with the mission of making America safer from cyber-attacks through a team of national cyber experts in policy, applied research and services, and education. Since then, the McCrary Institute has emerged as a leader in the cybersecurity space and has further cemented Auburn’s Samuel Ginn College of Engineering as a preeminent engineering program.

    Rep. Rogers works closely with the McCrary Institute and recently helped secure funding for the Southeast Region Cybersecurity Collaboration Center (SERC3) project.

    Watch or listen to the full episode here.

    Key Moments:

    We are at the lowest level of defense spending as a percentage of GDP since before World War II. It is dangerously low, 2.9% of GDP. We really should be closer to 5%.

    You can put a multi-million warehouse stockpile of drones together and we can upgrade them every week or every month without touching them. And those are the kind of changes that we need to make sure that we can move with the speed of relevance.

    Guam has a big target on it. Number one target by China. If we get into a conflict… it will be target number one.

    We’re going to be doing swarms [of underwater drones] just like we’re doing swarms in the air. You’re going to find the use of unmanned fighter jets is going to be very commonplace. We’re already doing some of that now, but it’s going to be a lot.

    I really think scholarships are the best way to get younger people to think about [working in cyber] early when they’re looking at career choices.

    [The Golden Dome] would create a significant space-based, low earth orbit sensor capacity that is much more sophisticated than what we have now. Along with some additional interceptors, and obviously this would be exactly in the wheelhouse of Huntsville.

    I expect sometime in the month of April that Space Command will officially be assigned to build its headquarters in Huntsville… I’ve already talked with the contractor, and he is ready to turn dirt on the day they announce.

    There will be a lot of battles fought where there’s not a gun fired. It’s going to be through cyber and through space.

    We all, in our daily private lives, use space every day.

    ###

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Speech: ACT Celebration Brunch

    Source: ACT Party

    Speech
    ACT Leader David Seymour
    Sunday 1 June, 2025
    ACT New Zealand Celebration Brunch

    Intro

    “It does not take a majority to prevail … but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men and woman.”

    That was Sam Adams, one of the United States’ founding fathers. So many people here today, and some who sadly couldn’t be, fit Sam Adams’ description:

    I know one or two here are, occasionally, irate.

    To get this far, we’ve had to be tireless.

    I suspect we’ll always be a minority, but we succeed by setting brushfires in people’s minds.

    Human freedom, to do what you like if you don’t harm others, is the only thing truly worth fighting for. Only when that principle prevails can we turn our efforts on fighting problems in the natural world, instead of each other.

    This is no swansong, just a little rest before the next climb, perhaps the next setback, we’ve had lots of both, and we’ll have lots more.

    Today’s an opportunity to thank you for all your efforts setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of New Zealanders, and recommit ourselves to the mission of promoting a free society.

    Challenges I’ve faced and people who’ve helped/what I’ve learned from them

    Now, it hasn’t always been easy. If I had to pick a theme song for the last ten years, it could be one of Mark Knopfler. The Scaffolder’s Wife. Mark always writes with great empathy for the struggling.

    “In the wicked old days, when we went it alone. Kept the company goin,’ on a wing and a prayer.”

    Those words really stick with me, because sum up my first six years of leading ACT.

    In fact, it hasn’t just been a bit difficult. Most of the time it seemed bloody impossible.

    It’s a happy miracle our party exists. There is no party committed to human freedom anywhere in the world as successful as ACT. Most politicians find it too easy to get votes by promising other people’s money, or promising to regulate other people’s choices.

    We take the hard road. We seek political power by promising voters only the freedom to make the most of their own lives. We do so because only the creative powers of a free society can generate the wealth to overcome our challenges.

    Not only is our mission fundamentally hard, but sometimes we’ve made it harder than necessary. I hesitate to bring it up, but we’ve burned ourselves on one or two of our own brushfires along the way.

    Our perk buster took a perk. Our tough on crime guy got convicted. Our leadership had a civil war. We were subject to an unconventional coup.

    In 2011, ACT ran one of the most corageous three-pronged election campaigns in modern history. Supply side economics, one law for all, and freeing the weed. There are constituencies for all three causes, but they don’t all get along.

    John Banks steadied the ship, and I want to thank him for his unconditional support. John didn’t just allow the party to survive, he allowed it to survive as a liberal party.

    I imagine being turned around to vote for gay marriage wasn’t easy for him. On the other hand, saying no to Jenny isn’t easier either.

    John’s sacrifices allowed Jamie Whyte and I to run a ticket in 2014, but things could still get much worse. It turned out my dear friend with a CV from heaven was brilliant at everything but politics.

    I say all this because it’s the backdrop to one hell of a climb. You have to see where we started to see how far we’ve come. That is, to see the full achievement of the people in this room and some who can’t be here today. We’ve made ACT the world’s most successful classical liberal party.

    For five years, nothing we did made a jot of difference. There was a Facebook group called ‘Is ACT polling 1 per cent yet,’ and it seemed like it would be forever.

    People said our party was not legitimate. They said we shouldn’t even be in Parliament. They said we had no real agency, being an offshoot of another party. When they talked about us, they didn’t talk about what I was saying in the present. Instead, they judged us by others had taken while I myself had been living in another country.

    After the election disaster of 2017, I said that it didn’t matter what our shop was selling. We just couldn’t get anyone in the door, let alone buying.

    This kind of relentless doomism was the opposite of everything ACT stands for. We believe, as Richard Prebble says in I’ve Been Thinking, that life isn’t like bad weather, you can make a difference in your time on Earth.

    Unfortunately, some things were like the weather. We couldn’t make it rain financially. Eric Clapton said nobody knows you when you’re down and out. I can tell you from experience that very few donate to your political party, either.

    Lindsay Fergusson is one who can’t be here, may he rest in peace. I remember we got to $7,000 left. We’d miss rent on the office and be kicked out if something didn’t change. Lindsay put $5,000 in ACT’s account and said ‘don’t tell Lynne.’ Lynne, I hope the secret’s ok to let out now.

    I used to try to call two ACT members every week day. One day I called a guy called Chris Reeve. I noticed his email address was superman. He also said he wanted to donate. Could this guy be for real?

    I earnestly explained where the party was up to and what I needed to raise in a year to keep it going. He looked at me and said “I’ll do half if that Jenny Gibbs will do the other half.”

    I still remember clearly the first time I met Jenny, in 2005. “I’m a social liberal, too,” she said. Her generous support of ACT is published by the Electoral Commission, but her personal support of successive ACT leaders is not. She is one of the warmest and wisest women in New Zealand and we’re lucky to have her.

    Not every donor gives in the thousands, but thousands have given donations to keep our party alive, even when it might have seemed like palliative care. I thank everyone who’s given to ACT, whether you gave $5 or $5,000.

    Some people give their time. In the wicked old days when we went it alone, I was never really alone. So many people helped, delivering mail, erecting signs, filing the party accounts, and opening up their homes for house meetings.

    Alison and Stu Macfarlane rapidly edited my second book Own Your Future. They said the timeline was mad. I said we couldn’t move the election. I think that book helped keep the party together. Most parties couldn’t publish a book of their policies. Some probably think books are a symbol of colonisation anyway. What sets ACT apart is that we are a party of ideas.

    People think a political party is an enormous enterprise with limitless resources required to Govern a country. If you were taking hope or reassurance from that, I’m sorry to disappoint.

    We’re more reliant on wings and prayers than massive resources. One person who found this out the hard way was Malcolm Pollock. Chis Fletcher, Auckland’s mother, introduced him to me.

    He thought he might get a minor role making the tea on the sidelines of this vast edifice. We walked out of Fraser’s café as the bewildered new Chair of the Party’s only functioning electorate committee! In similar circumstances, Ruwan Premathilaka became party President.

    So many Malcolms and Margarets up and down this country have volunteered to make our party possible. ACT has ten times more members today than it did when Malcolm joined.

    Perhaps the hardest role in the Party is being the President. You’re legally responsible for the organization, but to survive it needs to change strategy at a moment’s notice. It must be the Governance equivalent of riding a mechanical Bull.

    We’ve been lucky to have very patient presidents, who’ve been prepared to hold the ship together. The current President, John Windsor, is perhaps New Zealand’s greatest political activist.

    John has never met a problem he can’t quickly and quietly fix. Signs, mail, volunteers, no problem. They say amateurs talk strategy, professional’s talk logistics. In that sense John is a true professional, and a great ACT President.

    Some roles are so difficult we need to pay people to do them. That would be our parliamentary staff. If I’ve done anything right in politics, it’s been attracting and retaining great people.

    Yesterday my electorate office staff came with me to Government House for the swearing in ceremony. I wanted them to be there because they’re be best electorate team in the country. They get swamped with requests for help from other electorates. There’s three positions and we’ve had one change in ten years, if turnover rates mean anything then we have a great team.

    The same thing goes for ACT’s team in Wellington. We’ve been ranked by far the best working environment on the Parliamentary Precinct, and we keep attracting great talent.

    One talent stood out more than any. When Brooke van Velden came to work in Wellington, the End of Life Choice Bill was still possible, but far from inevitable.

    It got stuck in Select Committee for sixteen months, and the antis refused to be constructive. We couldn’t make the changes we needed to get political buy in, let-alone make good law.

    We’d have to make these changes in The Committee of the Whole House stage, where each MP can individually vote on every word of the legislation. One wrong vote and the Bill could end up a nonsense, sinking a three-year project in a heartbeat.

    That’s when we came up with the Sponsor’s Report. If the eight MPs on the Select Committee, supported by the Ministry of Health, couldn’t come up with a coherent set of reforms, then a 26-year-old woman with a sharp mind would.

    The Sponsor’s Report remains one of the most effective policy documents ever produced in New Zealand. It was written by Brooke but, like Helen Clark, I just signed it. In the end we got MPs to vote for every change we needed to make the law, and oppose every change that would have stuffed it up.

    Besides Brooke, there have been 13 other new ACT MPs in the last decade, and they have been extraordinary. Nicole, Chris, Simon, James, Karen, Mark, Toni, Damien, Todd, Andrew, Parmjeet, Laura, and Cameron have been an exceptional team of players. However, they’ve also formed a great playing team, and we know a playing team always beats a team of players.

    Today our MPs in Government are delivering that real change that you asked for and we campaigned on.

    Our Parliamentarians are taking on the scourge of deepfake porn. I bet Roger Douglas never thought that would be come a cause when he founded the Party.

    We’re standing up for academic freedom. We’re keeping a watchful eye on bureaucracy for farmers and tradies alike.

    In Government, our Ministers are reforming, reforming, reforming. Brooke is taking on our calcified Health and Safety.laws and the hoary old Holidays Act.

    Nicole is finally delivering a rational approach to firearms law even as she changes the courts to speed up the clogged system.

    Karen is turning the department that failed her so deeply and personally into an effective protector of those who came after her.

    Andrew is standing up for the property rights of farmers when he defends New Zealand’s biosecurity.

    Simon is the unsung hero of this Government, because delivering resource management law based on property rights will do more for the people who live in this country than any other reform this term.

    Of course, the Party’s also bringing back charter schools, opening up overseas investment, saving the taxpayer billions, bringing Pharmac into the 21st century, slashing red tape, and legislating the Regulatory Standards Bill so for the first time our property rights will be in law. We’ve been busy.

    Some people have helped ACT in more creative, unexpected ways. When the female pro dancers first met for the 2018 season of Dancing with the Stars, they all agreed on one thing. Nobody wanted to be paired with ‘that guy’. It was a guaranteed ticket home on the first elimination.

    Even my own family came to opening night. They thought it would be their only chance, and I might need consolation after the show.

    If I’d had any partner except Amelia McGregor, they would have been right. But we ended up campaigning as much as dancing. We took on the bullies and fought for the downtrodden, the overlooked, and the physically uncoordinated up and down New Zealand!

    The kindest thing the judges said is that I proved absolutely anyone can dance.

    I think that’s what our tireless minority has proven over the years. With quiet determination we can change our future, and the future course of this country. Anyone can dance.

    That’s why we stand for the farmers, the landlords, the licensed firearm owners, the free speech advocates, the small business owners, and the ethnic and religious minorities. Everyone has the right to live free in the country, because anyone can dance.

    Why New Zealand needs more of a movement like ours

    Now, this must all sound very nostalgic. If our opponents have listened this far, they’re probably hoping I’m building up to a retirement.

    I’ve talked about how we got to today because it’s worth pausing and looking back. It’s essential to acknowledge and thank the many people who got us this far. We should, as our stalwart member Vince Ashworth says, foster a culture of appreciation.

    That said, I’m not going anywhere but ahead.  Sorry Labour, ACT remains your worst nightmare, and New Zealand’s best hope.

    Nearly every single press release, fundraising email, talking point from Labour lately has been about how dangerous David Seymour is. I get so much free accommodation living in Willie Jackson’s head, I might need to declare it to Parliament’s register of interests.

    To Labour, yes I am dangerous, but only to you and your batty outriders. What’s more your strategy of directing more attention to ACT will backfire.

    To paraphrase Br’er Rabbit, we’re born and bred under political pressure. When you put the spotlight on ACT, you show people the party and the attitude this country needs.

    We can be down and out, through wicked old days, and rise again.

    We’ve been able to do it because we have something you can never take away, our philosophy. Our core beliefs are the beliefs that founded this country.

    Wave after wave of migrants have taken huge risks to give their children a better life on these islands.

    We are a nation of pioneers united in the belief that things can get better, no matter how hard they seem there is always hope.

    We don’t discriminate against each other, based on things we can’t change about ourselves. We only discriminate based on the choices we do make. Human freedom, and personal responsibility under the law.

    We know the world is unpredictable, and the only path to success is letting a thousand flowers bloom, looking for success that we can push up, instead of pull down.

    Our opponents are a Labour Party best described as lost. There is a Green Party that barely talks about the environment. There is the extraordinary spectre of a race-based party that increasingly threatens violence against its opponents, tolerated by the media.

    What unites them is a poverty of spirit. The idea that other people’s success is not an example of what’s possible, but somehow the source of their supporters’ problems.

    They traffic in the idolisation of envy, and even if they manage to sell it, it still won’t work.

    ACT on the other hand, and our celebration today, shows that anyone can dance. Yes our country faces problems, but ACT knows how to overcome them.

    It starts with belief. When seemed easiest to give up, you may find you were really just turning the corner. Today there are too many Kiwis leaving, and not enough believing.

    I believe New Zealand remains a good bet. We have no excuses for not creating a great country, but it’s the culture that matters. The real culture war today is not about which bathroom you go to, it is about whether we are here to push people up or pull them down.

    Can we move past the dark underbelly of tall poppy, and celebrate the achievements of Sheppard, Rutherford, Ngata and Hillary, with many more to come?

    We have to believe life is a positive sum game, that win-wins are possible if we treat each other with mutual respect and dignity.

    We can become a kind of Athens of the modern world, a place where creative people are welcomed to move and invest, joining people already here who fundamentally believe the point of our country is to make success possible.

    Every policy should be measured against the simple test, will this create the environment for New Zealanders to solve problems and make tomorrow better than today. It’s what we used to call, progressive. It used to be an idea owned by the left, but today they are far too busy tearing people down and putting them in boxes, virtue signaling, categorising, and otherwise discriminating.

    If there’s any party that can offer the values and the grit to take this country out of the doldrums and constant ‘meh’ that befalls New Zealand today, it’s the party that’s had to overcome the great Kiwi knocking machine from palliative care to the centre of Government.

    That effort would not have been possible without the people in this room and beyond who believed in us when no-one else would, because they believe in the Party’s ideas.

    Thank you for getting us to this milestone, and buckle yourselves in because in Hillary terms, today is only base camp.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI USA: Scanlon Leads House Colleagues In Condemning Diversion of Postal Police Resources to Support DHS Deportation Efforts

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congresswoman Mary Gay Scanlon(PA-5)

    Washington, D.C. — Congresswoman Mary Gay Scanlon (PA-05) and Rep. Kweisi Mfume (MD-07) today led 43 House colleagues in condemning the diversion of U.S. Postal Inspection Service (USPIS) resources to assist aggressive deportation efforts by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

    The USPIS is the federal law enforcement arm of the USPS, tasked with supporting and protecting the USPS, its employees, infrastructure, and customers by enforcing the laws that defend the United States’ mail system from illegal or dangerous use. The USPIS’ core functions include fighting mail fraud, assaults on postal workers, and the use of the mail system for drug distribution. Reallocation of USPIS’ time and resources to supplement DHS’s operations will severely impact the primary responsibilities of the USPIS.

    The USPIS came to the public’s attention during the first Trump administration when it arrested Trump advisor Steve Bannon for mail fraud. A few months later, that administration restricted USPIS’ law enforcement powers. 

    “In recent years, chronic underfunding and politicization of USPS functions have seriously restricted the activities of the Inspection Service. The USPIS has cut back on staff and jurisdiction, even as crime against mail carriers is on the rise – having the USPIS take on additional tasks at this time drastically limits their ability to protect their own employees,” the members wrote.

    “Using the U.S. Postal Service requires people to share address data, credit card numbers, IP addresses, and other critical financial information that could result in real harm if made public. Millions of Americans depend on the reliability and privacy of the USPS to receive personal items such as tax documents, medication, and mail-in ballots. It is deeply concerning that immigration enforcement agencies have access to the USPS’s sensitive data systems, and the use of the USPS to facilitate deportations raises serious constitutional and civil liberties concerns. The U.S. Postal Service should not be operating as a surveillance arm of federal immigration enforcement,” the members continued.

    Amidst ongoing threats to disband the USPS Board of Governors, fire thousands of USPS employees, and fold the USPS into the Department of Commerce, this reportedly placed pressure on the Inspection Service to abandon its primary responsibilities in favor of assisting the administration’s mass deportation agenda. Despite their objections, the Inspection Service is being forced to participate in order to avoid the same fate as other critical agencies, such as the Department of Education or the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

    “As Members of Congress, we demand that you terminate any general access by the Department of Homeland Security or any immigration enforcement agency to USPS’s broad data systems. We also ask for a commitment from your administration to refrain from any further actions to undermine the Postal Service’s critical role as an independent, depoliticized agency of the federal government. We appreciate your attention to this matter and look forward to your swift response,” the members concluded.

    Find the full letter here.

    ###

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Global: Bougainville wants independence. China’s support for a controversial mine could pave the way

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Anna-Karina Hermkens, Senior Lecturer and Researcher, Anthropology, Macquarie University

    Bougainville, an autonomous archipelago currently part of Papua New Guinea, is determined to become the world’s newest country.

    To support this process, it’s offering foreign investors access to a long-shuttered copper and gold mine. Formerly owned by the Australian company Rio Tinto, the Panguna mine caused displacement and severe environmental damage when it operated between 1972 and 1989.

    It also sparked a decade-long civil war from 1988 to 1998 that killed an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 civilians and caused enduring traumas and divisions.

    Industry players believe 5.3 million tonnes of copper and 547 tonnes of gold remain at the site. This is attracting foreign interest, including from China.

    Australia views Bougainville as strategically important to “inner security arc”. The main island is about 1,500 kilometres from Queensland’s Port Douglas.

    Given this, the possibility of China’s increasing presence in Bougainville raises concerns about shifting allegiances and the potential for Beijing to exert greater influence over the region.

    Australia’s tangled history in Bougainville

    Bougainville is a small island group in the South Pacific with a population of about 300,000. It consists of two main islands: Buka in the north and Bougainville Island in the south.

    Bougainville has a long history of unwanted interference from outsiders, including missionaries, plantation owners and colonial administrations (German, British, Japanese and Australian).

    Two weeks before Papua New Guinea received its independence from Australia in 1975, Bougainvilleans sought to split away, unilaterally declaring their own independence. This declaration was ignored in both Canberra and Port Moresby, but Bougainville was given a certain degree of autonomy to remain within the new nation of PNG.

    The opening of the Panguna mine in the 1970s further fractured relations between Australia and Bougainville. Landowners opposed the environmental degradation and limited revenues they received from the mine. The influx of foreign workers from Australia, PNG and China also led to resentment. Violent resistance grew, eventually halting mining operations and expelling almost all foreigners.

    Under the leadership of Francis Ona, the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA) fought a long civil war to restore Bougainville to Me’ekamui, or the “Holy Land” it once was.

    Australia supported the PNG government’s efforts to quell the uprising with military equipment, including weapons and helicopters.

    After the war ended, Australia helped broker the Bougainville Peace Agreement in 2001. Although aid programs have since begun to heal the rift between Australia and Bougainville, many Bougainvilleans feel Canberra continues to favour PNG’s territorial integrity.

    In 2019, Bougainvilleans voted overwhelmingly for independence in a referendum. Australia’s response, however, was ambiguous.

    Despite a slow and frustrating ratification process, Bougainvilleans remain adamant they will become independent by 2027.

    As Bougainville President Ishmael Toroama, a former BRA commander, told me in 2024:

    We are moving forward. And it’s the people’s vision: independence. I’m saying, no earlier than 2025, no later than 2027. My benchmark is 2026, the first of September. I will declare. No matter what happens. I will declare independence on our republican constitution.

    Major issues to overcome

    Bougainville leaders see the reopening of Panguna mine as key to financing independence. Bougainville Copper Limited, the Rio Tinto subsidiary that once operated the mine, backs this assessment.

    The Bougainville Autonomous Government has built its own gold refinery and hopes to create its own sovereign wealth fund to support independence. The mine would generate much-needed revenue, infrastructure and jobs for the new nation.

    But reopening the mine would also require addressing the ongoing environmental and social issues it has caused. These include polluted rivers and water sources, landslides, flooding, chemical waste hazards, the loss of food security, displacement, and damage to sacred sites.

    Many of these issues have been exacerbated by years of small-scale alluvial mining by Bougainvilleans themselves, eroding the main road into Panguna.

    Some also worry reopening the mine could reignite conflict, as landowners are divided about the project. Mismanagement of royalties could also stoke social tensions.

    Violence related to competition over alluvial mining has already been increasing at the mine.

    More broadly, Bougainville is faced with widespread corruption and poor governance.

    The Bougainville government cannot deal with these complex issues on its own. Nor can it finance the infrastructure and development needed to reopen the mine. This is why it’s seeking foreign investors.

    Open for business

    Historically, China has a strong interest in the region. According to Pacific researcher Anna Powles, Chinese efforts to build relationships with Bougainville’s political elite have increased over the years.

    Chinese investors have offered development packages contingent on long-term mining revenues and Bougainville’s independence. Bougainville is showing interest.

    Patrick Nisira, the minister for commerce, trade, industry and economic development, said last year the proposed Chinese infrastructure investment is “aligning perfectly with Bougainville’s nationhood aspirations”.

    The government has also reportedly made overtures to the United States, offering a military base in Bougainville in return for support reopening the mine.

    Given American demand for minerals, Bougainville could very well end up in the middle of a battle between China and the US over influence in the new nation, and thus in our region.

    Which path will Bougainville and Australia take?

    There is support in Bougainville for a future without large-scale mining. One minister, Geraldine Paul, has been promoting the islands’ booming cocoa industry and fisheries to support an independent Bougainville.

    The new nation will also need new laws to hold the government accountable and protect the people and culture of Bougainville. As Paul told me in 2024:

    […]the most important thing is we need to make sure that we invest in our foundation and that’s building our family and culture. Everything starts from there.

    What happens in Bougainville affects Australia and the broader security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. With September 1 2026 just around the corner, it is time for Australia to intensify its diplomatic and economic relationships with Bougainville to maintain regional stability.

    Anna-Karina Hermkens receives funding from the Australian Research Council to follow and analyse Bougainville’s journey towards independence.

    ref. Bougainville wants independence. China’s support for a controversial mine could pave the way – https://theconversation.com/bougainville-wants-independence-chinas-support-for-a-controversial-mine-could-pave-the-way-254320

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI USA: ICYMI: Timmons Op-ed Opposing Paris Mountain Development Project

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman William Timmons (SC-04)

    In a new op-ed in The Post and Courier, Congressman William Timmons (SC-04) makes the case against a proposed luxury hotel development on Paris Mountain, which has stirred strong public reaction across the Upstate. Residents and local officials have voiced serious concerns over traffic, safety, environmental impact, and preservation of Paris Mountain. With over 13,000 signatures opposing the project, the debate underscores a critical moment for the future of one of Upstate’s most cherished natural landmarks.

    In case you missed it…

    Paris Mountain is a jewel of the Upstate. We must protect it.
    The Post and Courier
    Rep. William Timmons (SC-04)
    April 23, 2025

    As a conservative congressman representing the Upstate, I feel compelled to address the troubling proposal for a 153-room hotel development on Paris Mountain. My family has proudly resided at the foot of this iconic landmark for over 60 years, and I never imagined that we would be facing a situation where the integrity of Paris Mountain could be compromised. This beautiful mountain has always been regarded as a jewel of our region, and it has historically been protected as such.

    The land proposed for this hotel has been designated as an Environmentally Sensitive District by Greenville County Council since the 1980s. This zoning was put in place to safeguard the unique natural resources of the area, and it reflects the community’s longstanding commitment to protecting our environment. Yet now, a developer with minimal experience who has acquired a narrow strip of land adjacent to Furman University is looking to sidestep these essential protections through annexation into the city of Travelers Rest.

    In 2013, Furman University annexed into Travelers Rest using a narrow strip of land. As a result, the city now arguably has the authority to annex and develop Paris Mountain. However, this move threatens to undermine our community’s commitment to environmental stewardship. If Travelers Rest annexes the property, the city would rezone it, and the developer has applied for Flexible Review District zoning for the purpose of building a hotel and effectively discarding decades of preservation efforts.

    The hotel proposed by the Divine Group features plans for 153 rooms, an event space for over 750 guests, a convention center, office space and dining facilities, with the capacity to accommodate over 1,000 people. This level of development raises several serious concerns.

    First and foremost is safety. The proposed entrance on Altamont Road, a narrow and precarious route that crosses Paris Mountain, is already known for accidents involving both vehicles and cyclists. Our first responders are challenged by the difficult terrain when responding to emergencies, the fact that Altamont Road is the only way in and out of Paris Mountain, and an evacuation could quickly become hazardous if Altamont Road were to be blocked. A serious fire could even force the fire department to shut down Poinsett Highway to access water from Furman’s Lake.

    Moreover, the Environmentally Sensitive District designation is in place to protect land deemed environmentally sensitive. This area features steep ravines that lead to the headwaters of the Reedy River, making it nearly impossible to avoid significant erosion and damage to the local ecosystems. Allowing commercial development in such an area is simply inappropriate and conflicts with the principles of good governance and responsible development we hold dear.

    It is shocking to see the proposed annexation get this far. If the city were to approve this hotel development, we would open the floodgates to further urban encroachment on Paris Mountain, jeopardizing its natural beauty and environmental integrity. We should not allow urban sprawl to tarnish the character of our region — Paris Mountain deserves better.

    Public sentiment against this development has also been overwhelmingly clear. The Greenville County Council — representing over 580,000 residents in the Upstate — unanimously passed a resolution opposing both the hotel and the removal of Environmentally Sensitive District protections, marking an exceptional show of solidarity in protecting our natural resources. Furthermore, more than 65% of adjacent property owners have voiced their objections, and over 13,000 signatures have been collected on a petition requesting that the city reject this proposal.

    Finally, I must express my concerns regarding the qualifications of the developers. Their budget for this project is 40% less than what was required to construct the Grand Bohemian Hotel in downtown Greenville, and their experience primarily consists of developing gas stations and laundromats, not complex hotels in challenging environmentally sensitive locations. Entrusting our beloved landscape to developers without significant experience in similar projects is irresponsible.

    I urge the Travelers Rest City Council to heed the voices of their constituents and recognize the extensive issues presented by this proposed development. Additionally, I encourage members of the Legislature to enact measures that protect environmentally sensitive lands throughout South Carolina, including Paris Mountain, from urban sprawl. Together, we should fight to ensure that Paris Mountain remains a cherished part of our Upstate identity for future generations.

    Congressman William Timmons represents South Carolina’s 4th Congressional District.

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI USA: As Trump Administration Cuts Weather Service Offices, Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher, Congresswoman Val Hoyle, and Congressman Joe Neguse Lead Effort To Support Funding for Federal Natural Disaster Research and Preparedness

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher (TX-07)

    Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher (TX-07), Congresswoman Val Hoyle (OR-04), and Congressman Joe Neguse (CO-02) led 35 of their House colleagues in sending a letter to the House Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies requesting that Congress reject President Trump’s attempt to gut the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) and instead fund it at a level of at least $656 million in the upcoming appropriations package.  This funding would allow OAR to continue its critical mission to prepare our communities for life-threatening natural disasters and to keep the U.S. at the forefront of atmospheric and oceanic research and science. 

    “Recent reporting on the President’s FY26 budget proposal shows that the Trump Administration plans to effectively eliminate OAR,” the members wrote.  “The proposal includes a $485 million cut to OAR’s budget, which is a nearly 75 percent cut, and a directive to transfer any remaining research funding to other divisions of NOAA.  The proposed budget would ‘eliminate all funding for climate, weather, and ocean laboratories and cooperative institutes.’  It also does not include funding for Regional Climate Data and Information, Climate Competitive Research, National Sea Grant College Program, or the National Oceanographic Partnership Program.  This shortsighted and dangerous proposal would cripple United States (U.S.) leadership in scientific research and leave our communities less prepared to face extreme weather events.  As hurricane season quickly approaches, OAR’s advancements in predicting extreme weather events are more important than ever.  The research and data resulting from the OAR Hurricane Research Division’s partnership with the U.S. National Hurricane Center have saved countless lives and nearly $5 billion per major U.S. hurricane landfall.” 

    “Stronger science for forecasting severe weather and communicating impacts will protect communities and save lives,” the members continued.  “Robust funding will enable NOAA and its research institution partners to continue their long and proud history of partnering with industries and other government agencies to provide that cutting-edge research.” 

    To read the full text of the letter, click here. 

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI USA: House Passes Congressman Meuser’s “Gold Shield Families Resolution” During National Police Week

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Dan Meuser (PA-9)

    WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, as part of National Police Week, the House of Representatives unanimously passed H.Res. 364, the Gold Shield Families Resolution, introduced by Congressman Dan Meuser (PA-09). The bipartisan resolution recognizes the families of fallen first responders as “Gold Shield Families” and calls on local communities to support nonprofit organizations that provide them with comfort, connection, and healing as they face profound loss.

    “Of all the priorities we face in Congress, none is more fundamental than ensuring public safety and protecting human life,” said Congressman Meuser. “And that responsibility rests squarely on the shoulders of our police officers, firefighters, EMTs, correction officers, and dispatchers. These are the people on the front lines of our communities, putting themselves in danger every single day to keep the rest of us safe. They are the thin gold line that holds society together.” 

    Meuser continued, “As the son of a police officer and the grandson of a firefighter, I’ve seen the risks they take and the sacrifices their families quietly endure. When the worst happens—when a life is lost in the line of duty—it’s the family that carries the burden of that sacrifice. This resolution ensures that sacrifice is acknowledged, honored, and remembered.”

    Just as we recognize the families of fallen servicemembers as “Gold Star Families,” this resolution ensures the families of fallen first responders are known and acknowledged as Gold Shield Families. It also calls on local communities to support the nonprofit organizations that serve them. These groups provide critical services—offering connection, care, and healing to families navigating life after unimaginable loss. The resolution also encourages Gold Shield Families to seek out these trusted resources as they carry forward the legacy of their loved ones.

    The resolution was inspired by Camp Freedom, a nonprofit in Carbondale, Pennsylvania, that provides outdoor healing experiences to disabled veterans, first responders, and their families, as well as to Gold Shield and Gold Star Families. The idea for the resolution was brought forward by Camp Freedom Executive Director Matt Guedes, a veteran and lifelong advocate for those who serve.

    “First responders run toward danger—and many of them do it as volunteers or on a modest income,” said Guedes. “They put their lives on the line for others, and when one of them is lost, their families are often left with nothing more than a well-meaning spaghetti dinner or a firehouse fundraiser. That’s kind, but it’s not enough. These families go home without their husband, their wife, their mother or father—and without the income or support they once had. Their grief is real, their financial strain is real, and the gap in long-term care is wide.”

    Guedes continued, “This resolution is so important because it recognizes those families and helps direct attention and resources to where they’re truly needed. Nonprofits like Camp Freedom are ready to stand in that gap—to walk with these families not just in the days after a loss, but for the months and years that follow. But recognition is the first step. With this resolution, we’re finally saying as a nation: we see your pain, we value your sacrifice, and we’re here for you.”

    To date, Camp Freedom has served more than 12,000 veterans, first responders, and servicemember families across the country. Congressman Meuser also credited Camp Freedom founder Bill Bachenberg for his vision and leadership in making that mission possible. 

    “This resolution may be just two pages long—but its message is powerful,” Meuser concluded. “It says to every Gold Shield Family: your loved one’s service mattered. Their sacrifice will not be forgotten—and neither will yours. And to every community: recognize these families, lift them up, and walk with them through their grief. Together, we can ensure their resilience is met with gratitude—and their loss is never faced alone.”

    Congressman Meuser spoke on the House floor in favor of H.Res. 364 here

    Text of the legislation can be found here

    ###

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI China: Heavy rains impact thousands in China’s Yunnan

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Continuous heavy rainfall in southwest China’s Yunnan Province has triggered geological disasters and caused house collapses and road disruptions, affecting thousands of residents.

    As of 8:00 p.m. on Sunday, torrential rains in Nujiang Lisu Autonomous Prefecture had affected 5,885 people from 1,652 households, damaging 27 houses, and destroying or damaging 16 bridges. Road disruptions were reported at 97 locations. A popular scenic area and a sightseeing platform had been temporarily closed.

    As of 8:00 p.m., Nujiang had urgently relocated 1,797 residents, with no fatalities reported so far.

    Meanwhile, in Diqing Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, landslides, mudslides and floods have blocked multiple roads, with dense fog further complicating transportation. The Meri Snow Mountain scenic zone was temporarily closed after flash floods forced the evacuation of 300 tourists.

    Local transport authorities of Diqing have deployed workers and machinery to repair damaged roads. In Deqen County, crews of local fire department have rescued 138 trapped residents and relocated 331 others to safety.

    Meteorological authorities warn that more rainfall is expected in both prefectures in coming days, maintaining a high risk of landslides, mudflows, and flash floods.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI USA: Waller, The Effects of Tariffs on the Three I’s: Inflation, Inflation Persistence, and Inflation Expectations

    Source: US State of New York Federal Reserve

    Thank you to the conference organizers for inviting me to speak today. I have attended this conference several times and I’m honored to be on the program this year. Today, I will speak on the U.S. economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy.1 I will focus my comments on two issues: first, the effects of tariffs on inflation persistence, and second, the divergence of household inflation expectations and financial market measures of inflation expectations.
    The theme of this conference is structural shifts and monetary policy. The key structural shift that is affecting the economies of both the United States and South Korea is the recent change in U.S. trade policy, and a substantial share of my remarks will address how this shift is affecting the U.S. outlook.
    The variability in tariff announcements this year, including the whipsawing of court rulings and doubling of metal tariffs last week, has created considerable uncertainty about where trade policy will settle. In mid-April, based on how things looked at the time, I proposed two scenarios to consider in framing an outlook and a preferred stance of monetary policy: a large tariff scenario and a smaller tariff scenario.2 In both cases, I assumed that the tariff increases would lead to a one-time boost to prices that would temporarily raise inflation, after which inflation would return to its underlying rate. This temporary increase could play out with a prompt rise in inflation that could recede quickly, or it could occur more gradually with a more modest increase that would recede more slowly. As I will explain, crucial to this judgment is my assumption that longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored.
    The large-tariff scenario I described assumed an average, trade-weighted tariff for goods imports of 25 percent, which is close to where things stood after the 90-day tariff suspensions announced April 9, and my scenario assumed that this would remain in place for some time. In that case, I argued that inflation based on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index could reach a peak of 5 percent on an annualized basis this year if businesses passed through all of the tariff costs to consumers. If firms absorbed some of the tariff increase, then inflation might peak around 4 percent. I also argued that an economic slowdown from these higher costs could push the unemployment rate up from 4.2 percent to 5 percent next year.
    The smaller-tariff scenario assumed a 10 percent average tariff on goods imports would remain in place but that higher country and sector specific tariffs would be negotiated down over time. In this case, inflation may rise to 3 percent on an annualized basis and then dissipate. Growth in output and employment would slow, with the unemployment rate rising but probably not as high as 5 percent.
    Reported progress on trade negotiations since that speech leaves my base case somewhere in between these two scenarios. The temporary reduction in China tariffs has significantly decreased the trade-weighted average tariff, since China supplied about 13 percent of U.S. goods imports in 2024. But that reduction is only temporary and is due to increase if a trade agreement is not reached by August 12. Meanwhile, tariffs on other countries were temporarily lowered to 10 percent, but it is unclear where they will end up. Furthermore, the Administration continues to say that it plans additional tariffs on specific industries and sectors of the economy. Last week’s court decisions declaring a large share of tariffs illegal introduce additional uncertainty, but there seem to be multiple options for maintaining tariffs, so I will stick with an estimated trade weighted tariff right now of 15 percent on U.S. goods imports, which falls in between my large- and smaller- tariff scenarios. I see the risks of my large tariff scenario having gone down, but there is still considerable uncertainty about the ultimate levels, and thus about the impact on the economic outlook.
    The context for this uncertainty about tariffs is that hard data on the fundamentals of the economy lately has been mostly positive and supportive of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) economic objectives. There is very little evidence of the effect of trade policy in this data on inflation or economic activity through April, but that may change in the coming weeks. In comparison, there is evidence of tariff effects in the “soft data” based on surveys of consumers, businesses, and investors—indications of an expected slowdown in economic activity and an increase in prices. As of today, I see downside risks to economic activity and employment and upside risks to inflation in the second half of 2025, but how these risks evolve is strongly tied to how trade policy evolves.
    A careful examination of the hard data on overall economic activity through April shows it has been, on balance, positive. I say this because, while real gross domestic product contracted slightly in the first quarter, private domestic final demand, a measure of spending by consumers and businesses, grew at a healthy annual rate of 2.5 percent in the quarter. Of course, economic policy uncertainty among businesses is very elevated, and this has affected measures of sentiment and confidence for consumers and businesses, which fell to historically low levels in April. One index of this policy uncertainty compiled from newspaper stories, government reports, and the dispersion of the forecasts of private-sector economists rose in April to nearly twice the level seen during the pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis.3 However, consumer sentiment rebounded with the announcement that the China tariffs had been lowered temporarily. And households’ spending should continue to be supported by income from the resilient labor market. In addition, my business contacts have told me that, because of tariff uncertainty, their investment plans are currently on hold but are not canceled. So we may see a slowdown in investment in the near term but a jump back up later this year.
    Wherever things end up on a continuum between my “large” and “smaller” scenarios, I do expect tariffs will result in an increase in the unemployment rate that will, all else equal, probably linger. Higher tariffs will reduce spending, and businesses will respond, in part, by reducing production and payrolls.
    We won’t get the jobs report for May until this Friday, but the consensus expectation is that employers added 130,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2 percent. We have seen a reduction in wage pressures over recent months, and the ratio of job vacancies to the number of unemployed people has moderated from as high as 2 a couple of years ago to close to 1 today, which was about where it was before the pandemic. With a balanced labor market, if aggregate demand slows noticeably, businesses will likely look to cut workers. But I believe job cuts would be modest if the smaller-tariff scenario is realized. Most chief executives I have spoken to say that they can maintain their current operations with an effective tariff of 10 percent, looking for efficiencies here and there, and won’t have to significantly reduce their workforces.
    InflationNow let me turn to the outlook for inflation. Before the recent shift in U.S. trade policy, inflation had been making consistent, but uneven, progress over the past two years toward our 2 percent goal. While that progress seemed to stall at the beginning of 2025, it has resumed the past two months. The same pattern of higher readings at the start of the year, followed by lower readings the next couple of months, also occurred in 2024 and I expect that research will eventually reveal some residual seasonal effect or other factor that has affected at least some prices early in the year.
    Total PCE inflation for April rose 0.1 percent, and core PCE inflation without energy and food prices increased by the same amount. It was the second monthly reading at 0.1 percent or less, and it means that headline PCE inflation was up 2.1 percent over the 12 months through April and that core was up 2.5 percent. In the absence of the tariff increases, I was expecting inflation would continue to be coming down nicely to our 2 percent goal. But now I expect that the effect of higher tariffs will raise inflation in the coming months. The surge in imports to build up inventories ahead of the April 2 announcement makes the timing of price increases somewhat uncertain.
    Thinking about the rest of 2025 and 2026, I expect the largest factor driving inflation will be tariffs. As I said earlier, whatever the size of the tariffs, I expect the effects on inflation to be temporary, and most apparent in the second half of 2025. This will be determined not only by the ultimate size of the increase, but also by how exporters and importers respond, something that is highly uncertain. Will foreign exporters discount prices to try and preserve market share? Will domestic importers absorb some of the tariff increases to shore up demand and sales volumes? Will firms simply pass the entire tariff along to consumers? Since about 10 percent of personal spending goes to imported goods, if the ultimate tariff levels are closer to my 10 percent smaller-tariff scenario and if that is fully passed through to consumers, then the tariff would push up prices 1 percent. But based on my conversations with business leaders, I suspect the tariff cost will not be fully passed through and, instead, the burden will be distributed something like 1/3, 1/3, and 1/3 among consumers, importers and exporters. In this case, it would raise inflation three tenths of 1 percent for a short period. However, if the tariffs are higher than 10 percent, more of the increase is likely to be passed on to consumers, as businesses face limits in how much they can absorb and still find a way to remain profitable.
    I have also heard from business contacts that firms may choose to spread the tariff across non-imported goods. This would increase many goods prices a little instead of boosting import prices by a larger amount. But this approach would not affect the total impact of tariffs on the overall price level. Let me illustrate why using an example.
    Imagine a firm selling 10 goods with equal sales revenue so that all have an equal weight of 1/10 when aggregating the firm’s average price. Now assume one of the goods is imported. A 10 percent tariff on the imported good that is fully passed through raises the price of the imported good by 10 percent, while the prices of the other nine goods remain unchanged. This pricing strategy raises the average price of all goods by 1 percent. Now, instead, suppose the firm chooses a different strategy and decides to spread the tariff cost across all goods by raising all 10 goods prices by 1 percent. As a result, the price of the imported good increases much less, but the prices of the other nine goods now increase a bit even though they are not subject to tariffs. Under this strategy, the average price of the firm’s goods still goes up 1 percent, and the tariff is fully passed through. So both pricing strategies have the same total effect on the aggregate price level across the firm and, if repeated, across the economy. The same logic applies to passing along the tariff via a sequence of smaller price increases instead of at a single point in time—in the end, the aggregate price level goes up by the same amount regardless of whether it is gradual or immediate.
    I have heard the concern that some firms may raise prices opportunistically while blaming the tariff increase. There is always a risk that firms blame some purported cost spike for a price increase, but it doesn’t happen often because of the risk of losing market share to competitors or squandering the allegiance of loyal customers. So while this may happen in isolated instances, I do not believe it will be a significant source of additional inflation above and beyond the tariff-induced increase.
    Inflation PersistenceLet me now turn to the first of two issues about inflation that I want to cover in more detail. This is inflation persistence. The economics behind a tariff increase implies it should have a transitory effect on prices—tariffs raise prices once, but those prices don’t keep going up. I know that hearing “transitory” will certainly remind many people of the consensus on the FOMC in 2021 that the pandemic increases to inflation would be transitory. Inflation turned out to be much more persistent than we thought it would be. Am I playing with fire by taking this position again? It sure looks like it. So why do I believe a tariff-induced inflation spike will not be persistent this time?
    Looking back to how inflation played out in 2021 and 2022, I believe there were three key factors that increased the persistence of the initial burst of inflation in 2021. First, there was a negative labor supply shock that was more persistent than expected. I believed that once the economy reopened, all of this labor would return. However, many workers left the labor market because of illness, or to care for children and family members, or took early retirement. They never returned. And with every wave of COVID-19, the United States experienced additional waves of early retirements that inhibited the labor supply from returning to its pre-pandemic level. Also, with the service sector shut down, demand surged for goods as spending on travel and other services halted and the negative labor supply shock led to a shortage of workers in goods production, delivery, and sales. Goods industries raised wages to attract workers and then once the economy began to reopen, service-sector firms had to pay higher wages to get workers back. This persistent shortage of labor from these several pandemic-related effects continued through 2021 and 2022 as job vacancies skyrocketed and firms had no choice but to pass along escalating wage increases in the form of higher prices.
    The second factor driving inflation after the pandemic was that the supply chain disruptions that many expected to be temporary turned out to be more persistent. There were multiple waves of COVID affecting different regions of the world at different times, so that resolving production and transportation problems was constantly disrupted by the ebbing and flowing of the disease. One notable detail is that China’s lockdowns lasted much longer than expected and played an important role in global supply disruptions.
    The last factor was the quite stimulative fiscal response in the United States. There were hundreds of billions of dollars in grants to businesses to pay idled workers and large transfer payments to households. Furthermore, additional fiscal spending bills in 2021 and 2022 further stimulated aggregate demand. I am willing to admit that, at the time, I underappreciated how the large and sustained fiscal response would combine with highly accommodative monetary policy to overstimulate aggregate demand in an economy that quickly recovered from the early effects of the pandemic.
    Today I don’t see factors like the three I have described here reinforcing the inflationary effects of higher tariffs. There is no longer a shortage of labor and, at least so far, no indication that tariffs are causing big disruptions in supply chains, as the recent surge in imports that I mentioned should attest. While Congress is putting together a tax bill, as it stands now, a large share of that legislation extends tax cuts that have been on the books for eight years and thus would not be stimulative. Finally, monetary policy is in a very different position—we have shrunk our balance sheet by over $2 trillion and our policy rate is north of 4 percent instead of being at the effective lower bound. So I do not believe one can use 2021 and 2022 as a basis for predicting what will happen to the persistence of inflation arising from tariffs.
    Inflation ExpectationsNow let’s discuss the second issue of diverging inflation expectations. I have argued that I believe the tariff-induced inflation will be transitory and we should look through it when setting policy as long as longer-term inflation expectations are anchored.4 However, right now, we are seeing a dramatic disparity between household measures of inflation expectations and market-based measures, as well as the inflation expectations of professional forecasters. The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers show that both near- and longer-term inflation expectations have increased strikingly, on net, in the past few months and currently stand at 6.6 percent and 4.2 percent respectively. Meanwhile, inflation expectation measures based on prices of nominal versus inflation-adjusted securities have not increased very much, with 2-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities inflation compensation around 2.7 percent and 5-year and 10-year around 2.4 percent. Also, the median from the Survey of Professional Forecasters for consumer price inflation 6 to 10 years ahead is at 2.2 percent.
    This highly unusual discrepancy between inflation expectation measures creates problems for policymakers. Whose expectations should we be paying attention to? I prefer to look at market-based measures of inflation compensation and professional forecasters’ expectations because they have money on the line. Those buying inflation protected-securities lose money if they are wrong. Professional forecasters have clients and firms making financial decisions based on those forecasts and will lose customers if their predictions are wrong. As I used to teach my students, in a capitalist system, competition will drive firms out of business if they make bad decisions. Forecasting mistakes can be costly for consumers, but households aren’t competing with each other and won’t be driven out of business if they make bad decisions.
    But, for the sake of argument, let’s assume that the household measures of high inflation expectations are correct and financial market participants’ expectations are too low. What are the implications of this mismatch?5 If households actually believe inflation will be 7 percent for several years, workers would be expected to demand at least a 7 percent raise to keep their real wages from falling.6 If firms grant those wage demands, then inflation would rise by roughly 7 percent as the wage increases are passed through. Also, job search and the quits rate should increase as workers look for higher-paying jobs.
    Is this happening? Although that was the story a few years ago in a tight labor market, I am not now hearing about such an upturn in wage demands from my business contacts, and I don’t see it in wage and compensation data. After several years of outsized pay increases and in a labor market that has loosened significantly from a year or two ago, I think workers don’t have much leverage to ask for raises and are probably more worried about keeping their jobs right now. Furthermore, instead of increasing, the quits rate is below its pre-pandemic level. Given labor market conditions, it seems hard to believe that the high inflation expectations we are seeing in consumer surveys will lead to large nominal wage increases and a second-round burst of inflation.
    A second point here is that if consumers believed we were about to face high inflation, they would be front-loading purchases, much as importers seem to be front-loading their inventories. But, on the contrary, with the exception of motor vehicles, we haven’t seen a broad surge in the consumer spending, which overall is growing more slowly than it did in the second half of 2024.
    For financial businesses, they set interest rates of their loans and financial products based on expected inflation. Their views should be embedded in market-based inflation expectations and those of professional forecasters. If they got the forecast wrong and the nominal interest rates on their loans were too low, then their real returns would be dramatically reduced and their profit margins squeezed. I have a hard time believing interest rates are mis-priced so badly. If they were, then households would think the real interest rate on loans is greatly suppressed. Consequently, loan demand for interest-sensitive products like houses, cars, and durable goods should surge. While loan demand appears to be healthy, there are no reports from banks or other financial firms that loan demand is surging.
    So, based on wage demands, spending patterns, and loan demand, I see no evidence of economic activity that conforms to the inflation views reflected in the University of Michigan household measures, which, like other polling about the economy in recent years, may reflect attitudes about other factors.7
    In conclusion, given my belief that any tariff-induced inflation will not be persistent and that inflation expectations are anchored, I support looking through any tariff effects on near term-inflation when setting the policy rate. Fortunately, the strong labor market and progress on inflation through April gives me additional time to see how trade negotiations play out and the economy evolves. Assuming that the effective tariff rate settles close to my lower tariff scenario, that underlying inflation continues to make progress to our 2 percent goal, and that the labor market remains solid, I would be supporting “good news” rate cuts later this year.

    1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. Return to text
    2. See Waller (2025) A Tale of Two Outlooks. Return to text
    3. See Scott R. Baker, Nick Bloom, and Steven J. Davis (2025), “Economic Policy Uncertainty,” webpage, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html. Return to text
    4. For an interesting history of monetary policymakers “looking through” inflation increases, see Nelson, Edward (2025). “A Look Back at “Look Through,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-037. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Return to text
    5. In what follows, I am focusing solely on the higher level of inflation expectations and not the higher level of inflation uncertainty. The level of inflation and uncertainty about inflation are highly correlated, so it is difficult to disentangle the effects separately. To see how these two effects can alter household behavior, see Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Olivier Coibion, and Geoff Kenny (2024), “The Causal Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Households’ Beliefs and Actions (PDF),” NBER Working Paper Series 33014 (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, October). Return to text
    6. As documented in Nelson (2025), second round wage effects were a general concern of policymakers in the 1970s and 1990s when discussing oil price shocks or how to respond to changes in value-added taxes and exchange rate shocks. Return to text
    7. For a discussion of factors that were affecting inflation perceptions during the COVID pandemic, see David Lebow and Ekaterina Peneva (2024), “Inflation Perceptions during the Covid Pandemic and Recovery,” FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, January 19). Return to text

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-Evening Report: Bougainville wants independence. China’s support for a controversial mine could pave the way

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna-Karina Hermkens, Senior Lecturer and Researcher, Anthropology, Macquarie University

    Bougainville, an autonomous archipelago currently part of Papua New Guinea, is determined to become the world’s newest country.

    To support this process, it’s offering foreign investors access to a long-shuttered copper and gold mine. Formerly owned by the Australian company Rio Tinto, the Panguna mine caused displacement and severe environmental damage when it operated between 1972 and 1989.

    It also sparked a decade-long civil war from 1988 to 1998 that killed an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 civilians and caused enduring traumas and divisions.

    Industry players believe 5.3 million tonnes of copper and 547 tonnes of gold remain at the site. This is attracting foreign interest, including from China.

    Australia views Bougainville as strategically important to “inner security arc”. The main island is about 1,500 kilometres from Queensland’s Port Douglas.

    Given this, the possibility of China’s increasing presence in Bougainville raises concerns about shifting allegiances and the potential for Beijing to exert greater influence over the region.

    Australia’s tangled history in Bougainville

    Bougainville is a small island group in the South Pacific with a population of about 300,000. It consists of two main islands: Buka in the north and Bougainville Island in the south.

    Bougainville has a long history of unwanted interference from outsiders, including missionaries, plantation owners and colonial administrations (German, British, Japanese and Australian).

    Two weeks before Papua New Guinea received its independence from Australia in 1975, Bougainvilleans sought to split away, unilaterally declaring their own independence. This declaration was ignored in both Canberra and Port Moresby, but Bougainville was given a certain degree of autonomy to remain within the new nation of PNG.

    The opening of the Panguna mine in the 1970s further fractured relations between Australia and Bougainville. Landowners opposed the environmental degradation and limited revenues they received from the mine. The influx of foreign workers from Australia, PNG and China also led to resentment. Violent resistance grew, eventually halting mining operations and expelling almost all foreigners.

    Under the leadership of Francis Ona, the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA) fought a long civil war to restore Bougainville to Me’ekamui, or the “Holy Land” it once was.

    Australia supported the PNG government’s efforts to quell the uprising with military equipment, including weapons and helicopters.

    After the war ended, Australia helped broker the Bougainville Peace Agreement in 2001. Although aid programs have since begun to heal the rift between Australia and Bougainville, many Bougainvilleans feel Canberra continues to favour PNG’s territorial integrity.

    In 2019, Bougainvilleans voted overwhelmingly for independence in a referendum. Australia’s response, however, was ambiguous.

    Despite a slow and frustrating ratification process, Bougainvilleans remain adamant they will become independent by 2027.

    As Bougainville President Ishmael Toroama, a former BRA commander, told me in 2024:

    We are moving forward. And it’s the people’s vision: independence. I’m saying, no earlier than 2025, no later than 2027. My benchmark is 2026, the first of September. I will declare. No matter what happens. I will declare independence on our republican constitution.

    Major issues to overcome

    Bougainville leaders see the reopening of Panguna mine as key to financing independence. Bougainville Copper Limited, the Rio Tinto subsidiary that once operated the mine, backs this assessment.

    The Bougainville Autonomous Government has built its own gold refinery and hopes to create its own sovereign wealth fund to support independence. The mine would generate much-needed revenue, infrastructure and jobs for the new nation.

    But reopening the mine would also require addressing the ongoing environmental and social issues it has caused. These include polluted rivers and water sources, landslides, flooding, chemical waste hazards, the loss of food security, displacement, and damage to sacred sites.

    Many of these issues have been exacerbated by years of small-scale alluvial mining by Bougainvilleans themselves, eroding the main road into Panguna.

    Some also worry reopening the mine could reignite conflict, as landowners are divided about the project. Mismanagement of royalties could also stoke social tensions.

    Violence related to competition over alluvial mining has already been increasing at the mine.

    More broadly, Bougainville is faced with widespread corruption and poor governance.

    The Bougainville government cannot deal with these complex issues on its own. Nor can it finance the infrastructure and development needed to reopen the mine. This is why it’s seeking foreign investors.

    Open for business

    Historically, China has a strong interest in the region. According to Pacific researcher Anna Powles, Chinese efforts to build relationships with Bougainville’s political elite have increased over the years.

    Chinese investors have offered development packages contingent on long-term mining revenues and Bougainville’s independence. Bougainville is showing interest.

    Patrick Nisira, the minister for commerce, trade, industry and economic development, said last year the proposed Chinese infrastructure investment is “aligning perfectly with Bougainville’s nationhood aspirations”.

    The government has also reportedly made overtures to the United States, offering a military base in Bougainville in return for support reopening the mine.

    Given American demand for minerals, Bougainville could very well end up in the middle of a battle between China and the US over influence in the new nation, and thus in our region.

    Which path will Bougainville and Australia take?

    There is support in Bougainville for a future without large-scale mining. One minister, Geraldine Paul, has been promoting the islands’ booming cocoa industry and fisheries to support an independent Bougainville.

    The new nation will also need new laws to hold the government accountable and protect the people and culture of Bougainville. As Paul told me in 2024:

    […]the most important thing is we need to make sure that we invest in our foundation and that’s building our family and culture. Everything starts from there.

    What happens in Bougainville affects Australia and the broader security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. With September 1 2026 just around the corner, it is time for Australia to intensify its diplomatic and economic relationships with Bougainville to maintain regional stability.

    Anna-Karina Hermkens receives funding from the Australian Research Council to follow and analyse Bougainville’s journey towards independence.

    ref. Bougainville wants independence. China’s support for a controversial mine could pave the way – https://theconversation.com/bougainville-wants-independence-chinas-support-for-a-controversial-mine-could-pave-the-way-254320

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Record levels of peatland restored

    Source: Scottish Government

    Scotland on track to meet interim peatland restoration target.

    **Embargoed until 0001 Monday 2 June**

    More than 14,000 hectares of degraded peatlands have been restored across Scotland in the last year, helping to reduce carbon emissions and restore biodiversity.

    Peatlands are areas of wet land that support habitats and species that are important for biodiversity, they also protect the wider ecosystem by improving water quality and reducing the severity of flooding. 

    Covering nearly two million hectares, Scotland is home to two-thirds of the UK’s peatlands. However, nearly three-quarters of Scotland’s peatlands is currently degraded.

    The Scottish Government has pledged £250 million to support the restoration of 250,000 hectares of peatlands by 2030, with an interim target of 110,000 hectares by 2026. A total of 90,000 hectares have been restored since 1990 and 14,860 of those were completed throughout the 2024-25 financial year.

    Agriculture Minister Jim Fairlie said:

    “As we celebrate World Peatlands Day, I am very pleased to report Scotland’s Peatland ACTION partnership has put 14,860 hectares of degraded peatlands on the road to recovery last year. This is a new record in one year.

    “Restoring peatland benefits our environment by reducing emissions, reducing risks of flooding and wildfires and improving water quality, it also invests in people and skills, creating green jobs in rural communities.

    “This means we have exceeded our 2024 Programme for Government commitment and represents a 42% increase over the 10,360 hectares restored during 2023-24. I thank all of our partners for their sustained efforts and tenacity in delivering another milestone figure.”

    Nick Halfhide, NatureScot Interim Chief Executive, said:

    “As key partners in the Scottish Government’s Peatland ACTION Partnership, NatureScot has successfully facilitated 65% of the restoration work completed in 2024-25. This significant achievement contributes substantially towards the overall target of 250,000 hectares of degraded peatland being put on the road to recovery by 2030.

    “Restoring Scotland’s degraded peatlands is essential to addressing both the climate and nature emergencies – it makes a vitally important contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions while providing broader benefits for biodiversity and water quality.”

    A key delivery partner of the Peatland ACTION Partnership, Forestry and Land Scotland has delivered 1744ha of peatland restoration work across Scotland in the last year surpassing its yearly target of 1500ha. CEO Kevin Quinlan said:

    “Forestry and Land Scotland is proud to be supporting the Scottish Government’s commitment to restoring 250,000 hectares of peatlands by 2030 as a key delivery partner in the Peatland ACTION Partnership.

    “Every site we restore adds to the scale of the contribution we make in efforts to transform and restore one of Scotland’s largest degraded ecosystems to create a far healthier landscape.”

    Background

    NatureScot is due to publish the Peatland ACTION Annual Review 2024-25 this week.

    Peatland ACTION | NatureScot

    Peatlands | Forestry and Land Scotland

    Third World Peatlands Day – International Peatland Society

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI Security: Coast Guard urges preparedness for 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

    Source: United States Coast Guard

    News Release  

    U.S. Coast Guard 7th District PA Detachment Jacksonville
    Contact: Coast Guard PA Detachment Jacksonville
    Office: 904-714-7606/7607
    After Hours: 786-393-4138
    PA Detachment Jacksonville online newsroom

     

    06/01/2025 04:57 PM EDT

    MIAMI — The Coast Guard reminds mariners and residents of South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to prepare for the 2025 hurricane season.  

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI NGOs: Dozens of Palestinians killed at US-Israel backed food distribution sites News Jun 01, 2025

    Source: Doctors Without Borders –

    Dozens of Palestinians were killed and hundreds more injured today as they waited for food at the newly created Gaza Humanitarian Foundation distribution centers in Rafah and close to the Netzarim Corridor, according to the Ministry of Health.

    Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) teams joined the mass casualty response in Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis. Patients told MSF they were shot at from all sides by drones, helicopters, boats, tanks, and Israeli soldiers on the ground.

    “Today’s events have shown once again that this new system of aid delivery is dehumanizing, dangerous, and severely ineffective,” said Claire Manera, MSF emergency coordinator. “It has resulted in preventable deaths and injuries of civilians. Humanitarian aid must be provided only by humanitarian organizations who have the competence and determination to do it safely and effectively.”

    The hospital corridors were filled with patients, but unlike what I have witnessed before, where most of the patients were women and children, today it was mainly men … They looked shattered and distraught after trying to secure food for their children, returning instead injured and empty handed.

    Nour Alsaqqa, MSF communications officer

    MSF teams at Nasser Hospital treated patients with serious injuries today. Some patients in critical condition are still undergoing surgery. With the blood banks almost empty, medical staff themselves have had to donate blood.

    “The hospital corridors were filled with patients, but unlike what I have witnessed before, where most of the patients were women and children, today it was mainly men,” said Nour Alsaqqa, MSF communications officer. “They lay in their beds in the hallways because the rooms are already packed with injured people. They had visible gunshot wounds in their limbs, and their clothes were soaked with blood. They looked shattered and distraught after trying to secure food for their children, returning instead injured and empty handed. Outside, there was shouting, sirens, a constant rush of new arrivals to the emergency room.”

    “Amid the chaos, we received confirmation that a colleague’s brother had been killed while attempting to collect aid from the distribution centre,” she said.

    The plan to militarize aid in Gaza is dehumanizing and ineffective

    Read more

    Mansour Sami Abdi, a father of four, described the chaos: “People fought over five pallets. They told us to take food—then they fired from every direction. I ran 200 meters before realizing I’d been shot. This isn’t aid. It’s a lie. Are we supposed to go get food for our kids and die?”

    “I was shot at 3:10 a.m.,”  says Mohammad Daghmeh, 24, a displaced person in Al-Qarara, Khan Younis. “As we were trapped, I bled constantly until 5:00 a.m. There were many other men with me. One of them tried to get me out. He was shot in the head and died on my chest. We had gone there for nothing but food—just to survive, like everyone else.”

    This is the second time this new system of aid distribution has led to bloodshed. On May 27, during the first afternoon of distribution in Rafah, Israeli forces shot dozens of people as wholly insufficient amounts of basic lifesaving supplies were distributed amid chaos.

    People fought over five pallets. They told us to take food—then they fired from every direction. I ran 200 meters before realizing I’d been shot. This isn’t aid. It’s a lie. Are we supposed to go get food for our kids and die?

    Mansour Sami Abdi, father of four

    As a result of the total siege that was imposed by the Israeli authorities on March 2, 100 percent of Gaza is now at risk of famine, according to the United Nations. Since May 19, the few hundred food trucks brought in—an insufficient fraction of what is needed—have spread despair among the 2 million plus people who have been largely deprived of food, water, and medication for three months now. Totally or partially blocking humanitarian aid from entering Gaza has aggravated the situation of all Gazans.

    MSF reinforces that, along with displacement orders and bombing campaigns that kill civilians, weaponizing aid in this manner may constitute crimes against humanity. Only a lasting ceasefire and the immediate opening of Gaza’s borders for humanitarian aid—including food, medical supplies, fuel and equipment—can ease this man-made catastrophe.

    MIL OSI NGO

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Athelstone house fire investigation

    Source: New South Wales – News

    A woman has been arrested following the investigation into a house fire at Athelstone on Sunday afternoon.

    About 1pm Sunday 1 June, police and emergency services were called to Burton Road, Athelstone after reports of a house fire. On arrival, patrols found the home engulfed by fire and despite efforts by fire crews, it was destroyed. A female occupant was detained by police at the scene, during which a female police officer was allegedly assaulted.

    The occupant was taken to hospital for a mental health assessment and the police officer was taken to hospital for treatment of minor injuries.

    Eastern District detectives and fire cause investigators attended the scene and following their investigation, the occupant, a 21-year-old woman, was arrested and charged with arson, aggravated assault, causing harm to an emergency service worker and resisting police. She was refused bail and will appear in the Adelaide Magistrates Court today (Monday 2 June).

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI Africa: Police working to arrest suspect in Olorato case

    Source: South Africa News Agency

    Law enforcement will not rest until another suspect in the murder of journalist Olorato Mongale is apprehended, Police Deputy Minister Dr Polly Boshielo said.

    The 30-year-old was killed last Sunday after leaving her Johannesburg home when she went on a date with her alleged killer. Her body was found hours later in Lombardy East, sparking a multi-provincial manhunt for the suspects.

    Speaking at her funeral service held at City Hall in Bloemfontein on Sunday, Dr Boshielo called on the public and for those who know the suspect to advise him to hand himself over to the nearest police station. 

    “We will also not rest until we find Bongani Mthimkhulu. If you know him, advise him to surrender to the nearest police station,” she said.

    The Deputy Minister emphasised that the South African Police Service’s (SAPS) is committed to combating gender-based violence and femicide (GBVF). 

    “The fight against gender-based violence and femicide is a national priority for the South African Police Service, and it is for this very reason that maximum resources are always deployed to investigate GBVF cases and also track down GBVF perpetrators,” she said. 

    Upon learning of the case last Sunday, the SAPS swiftly mobilised resources, including the National Anti-Kidnapping Task Team and the Gauteng Provincial Investigating Unit, to assist the Sandringham police station in tracking down the perpetrator known as “John.” 

    The investigation led authorities to a lodge in Kew, Johannesburg, and subsequently to KwaZulu-Natal, where they discovered a VW Polo vehicle with traces of blood. The vehicle was linked to Philangenkosi Makhanya, who was identified as “John.”

    On Friday morning, police located Makhanya at a block of apartments in Amanzimtoti. When police announced their arrival, he opened fire, and officers returned fire, resulting in his death at the scene. 

    READ | Suspect in Mongale case dies in fire exchange with police 

    In his possession, police found more than 27 ID smart cards belonging to various men and about 20 cellphones.

    Dr. Boshielo revealed that Makhanya and his accomplice, Bongani Mthimkhulu, operated a syndicate targeting women across various malls in the country. 

    “We are still searching for Bongani Mthimkhulu because we have narrowed our investigation and now know that Philangenkosi Makhanya and Bongani Mthimkhulu were working together and they were a syndicate that was targeting women in various malls across the country,” she said.

    The investigation has linked the duo to 22 cases of kidnapping and robbery, with women from across the country positively identifying them as the perpetrators. 

    Highlighting the broader impact of the syndicate’s activities, Boshielo noted that similar cases have been reported in Bloemfontein, Nelspruit, Midrand, Pretoria, Potchefstroom, Lebowakgomo in Limpopo, and Johannesburg.

    Addressing the family at the funeral service, Dr. Boshielo reassured them of the government’s commitment to justice. 

    “To the family, to the mother Poppy, we may not have been able to prevent the death of your child but be rest assured that one of her perpetrators is in permanent custody and will never rise up again to terrorize other women,” she said.

    The Deputy Minister called for collaborative effort to end GBVF.

    “GBVF is a crime that happens behind closed doors between two people that know each other and where we cannot always be as the police. Let’s all stand together and work together to put a stop to GBVF in our country,” the Deputy Minister said. 

    Police clear Fezile Ngubane

    In a statement on Saturday, the SAPS informed the nation that Fezile Ngubane who was initially identified as a suspect in a syndicate targeting young women has been cleared. 

    This as Ngubane’s father handed him over to the KwaMashu police station on Friday when he learnt that his son was sought by police in the Olorato murder case.

    “A multidisciplinary team led by the Deputy Provincial Commissioner for Crime Detection in Gauteng Major General Mbuso Khumalo,the SAPS National Anti-kidnapping task team, KZN and Gauteng Provincial Investigating Unit (PIU)have now cleared Ngubane following a thorough interview and preliminary investigation.

    “According to a preliminary report, Ngubane washes cars for a living and stays in the same neighbourhood as deceased Philangenkosi Makhanya,” said the SAPS.

    Makhanya allegedly identified Ngubane as a soft target and took his ID smart card and used it to Rica SIM cards that Makhanya would use to commit his long list of kidnapping and robbery crimes targeted at young women.
    Ngubane’s ID was found as part of the 27 ID smart cards found in possession of Makhanya.

    “The SAPS has also released the parents of one of the two suspects in the case after their statements were taken down. Police are sitting with at least twenty cases where women have come forward identifying the suspects as those that kidnapped and robbed them.

    The search for Bongani Mthimkulu continues and police once again call on Mthimkhulu to hand himself over at his nearest police station,” the police said on Saturday. –SAnews.gov.za

    MIL OSI Africa

  • MIL-OSI: Cenovus Energy provides operations update on impact of Alberta wildfires

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    CALGARY, Alberta, June 01, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX: CVE) (NYSE: CVE) is providing an update on its Oil Sands operations following ongoing wildfire activity in northern Alberta. Cenovus is focused on the safety of its people and the integrity of its assets, and all staff are safe. Based on the inspections the company has completed to date, it is not aware of any damage to its infrastructure and would anticipate a full restart of Christina Lake operations in the near term.

    As a precaution, currently only essential personnel are at the Christina Lake oil sands asset, where the company began safely and methodically shutting in production on May 29. Operations will resume as soon as it’s safe to do so. Approximately 238,000 barrels per day of production have been impacted, and the company will provide an update when it is in a position to restart.

    Cenovus is closely monitoring the overall wildfire situation in Alberta. The company is grateful for the efforts of its teams who are working tirelessly to keep the company’s people and assets safe, and for the provincial emergency management teams and firefighters keeping communities safe.

    Advisory
    Forward-looking Information
    This news release contains certain forward-looking statements and forward-looking information (collectively referred to as “forward-looking information”) about Cenovus’s current expectations, estimates and projections about the future, based on certain assumptions made in light of experience and perception of historical trends. Forward-looking information in this news release is identified by words such as “focus”, “anticipate” and “will” or similar expressions, including, but not limited to, statements about: safety; asset integrity; production impacts; and resumption of operations.

    Except as required by applicable securities laws, Cenovus disclaims any intention or obligation to publicly update or revise any forward‐looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing lists are not exhaustive and are made as at the date hereof. Events or circumstances could cause actual results to differ materially from those estimated or projected and expressed in, or implied by, the forward‐looking information.

    For additional information regarding Cenovus’s material risk factors, the assumptions made, and risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ from the anticipated results, refer to “Risk Management and Risk Factors” and “Advisory” in Cenovus’s Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the periods ended December 31, 2024 and March 31, 2025 and to the risk factors, assumptions and uncertainties described in other documents Cenovus files from time to time with securities regulatory authorities in Canada (available on SEDAR+ at sedarplus.ca, on EDGAR at sec.gov and Cenovus’s website at cenovus.com).

    Cenovus Energy Inc.
    Cenovus Energy Inc. is an integrated energy company with oil and natural gas production operations in Canada and the Asia Pacific region, and upgrading, refining and marketing operations in Canada and the United States. The company is committed to maximizing value by developing its assets in a safe, responsible and cost-efficient manner, integrating environmental, social and governance considerations into its business plans. Cenovus common shares and warrants are listed on the Toronto and New York stock exchanges, and the company’s preferred shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. For more information, visit cenovus.com.

    Find Cenovus on Facebook, X, LinkedIn, YouTube and Instagram.

    Cenovus contacts

    Investors Media
    Investor Relations general line
    403-766-7711
    Media Relations general line
    403-766-7751

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: King’s Birthday Honours recognise significant contributions of Māori

    Source: New Zealand Government

    Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka today recognises the significant achievements of the Māori recipients in the King’s Birthday 2025 Honours List, for their dedicated mahi and outstanding contributions across various important areas.

    “The impressive mahi of Māori recipients this year are too numerous to mention. They have been honoured for achievements across many fields, coming from Iwi right across New Zealand – it is my privilege to recognise all of them today and to highlight just some examples,” Mr Potaka says.

    “The King’s Birthday Honours recognise the commitment and the passion that the recipients have shown, along with what has come from their dedication to their work and their causes.

    “Among those recognised are, Mrs Deborah (Debbie) Davis, who has done extensive work to bring so much good, including through He Iwi Kotahi Tātou Trust, the grassroots organisation transforming the community of Moerewa in Northland, along with her husband, Mr Ngahau Davis (Ngāpuhi, Ngāti Manu, Kohatutaka)

    “Mrs Davis (Ngāti Pāhauwera, Ngāti Kahungunu) has worked, through the Trust since 1987, to address challenges including housing, food security within the community, and youth engagement. Her and her husband’s work helped to provide insulation and heating solutions to more than 12,000 Northland homes since 2008. 

    “They have developed food rescue programmes and have introduced cultural and sports programmes that blend physical activity with the preservation of Māori traditions. They have expanded whānau support services to offer counselling, school programmes, and drug and alcohol programmes. Over the past 15 years, they have been involved in the establishment of a rehabilitative-focused sentencing in Kaikohe, Matariki Court.

    “Hon Dover Samuels is recognised for services as a Member of Parliament and his achievements and what he progressed in that time, including as Minister of Māori Affairs.

    “Mr Samuels (Ngāpuhi, Ngāti Kura, Ngāti Rēhia) was a Labour MP and MP for Te Tai Tokerau, working across various portfolios, including not least Māori Affairs, where his care and ability made considerable gains that continue to benefit Māori today. He also helped establish Rawene Health Hub for a rural Māori community and led the Rainbow Warrior project to sink the wreckage of the vessel and erect a memorial on Matauri Hill. He is kaumatua of several organisations. 

    “Mrs Elizabeth (Liz) Graham, who has dedicated more than 40 years to her community and to Māori education.

    “Mrs Graham (Ngāti Kahungunu, Ngāi Toroiwahi), has contributed to her community in many ways – that includes through the education of our tamariki and to the education sector through many roles across her career, work she continues today as a teacher at Te Aute College. She helped guide her community through the Treaty Settlement process, and her knowledge of traditions, values, and customs, has helped the marae in hosting funerals, weddings, gatherings, and other events for over 20 years.

    “The Honourable Sir Mark Cooper KC, High Court Judge, Court of Appeal Judge and President of the Court of Appeal, who was Chairperson of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Building Failure caused by the Canterbury Earthquakes. 

    Sir Mark (Ngāti Mahanga, Waikato-Tainui) chaired 33 public hearings to deliver four reports, all of these under intense time pressure and public scrutiny. The detailed findings and recommendations of those reports helped avoid delay to the Canterbury rebuild and helped provide a resolution to the community.

    Amongst some of his other work has been his leadership in resource management and local government law, and his work that helped integrate various councils into one North Shore-based Council.

    I want to thank all of today’s recipients, those mentioned here and all others who I trust will be celebrated by their people and their communities, and all the people who have worked with them along the way.

    “Ko te amorangi ki mua, ko te hāpai ō ki muri.”

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI USA: Governor Newsom and Acting Governor Kounalakis honor fallen Baldwin Park Police Officer

    Source: US State of California Governor

    Jun 1, 2025

    SACRAMENTO – Governor Gavin Newsom and Acting Governor Eleni Kounalakis issued the following statement regarding the death of Baldwin Park Police Department Officer Samuel Riveros:

    “We mourn the tragic loss of one of California’s brave law enforcement officers, who was killed in the line of duty while selflessly protecting the community. Our deepest condolences go out to Officer Riveros’ family, loved ones, and colleagues. We share in their grief and honor his sacrifice made in service to the public’s safety.”

    On May 31, 2025, Officer Riveros was among the officers who were immediately met with gunfire after answering a call at a residence, resulting in fatal injuries to Officer Riveros.

    Officer Riveros, 35, began his career with the Baldwin Park Police Department in 2016.

    He is survived by his mother and sister.

    In honor of Officer Riveros, flags at the State Capitol and Capitol Annex Swing Space will be flown at half-staff.

    Press releases, Public safety

    Recent news

    News Sacramento, California – Governor Gavin Newsom today issued a proclamation declaring May 2025, as “Mental Health Awareness Month.”The text of the proclamation and a copy can be found below: PROCLAMATIONDuring Mental Health Awareness Month, we recognize the…

    News SACRAMENTO – Governor Gavin Newsom today announced the following appointments:Connie Nakano, of Elk Grove, has been appointed Assistant Director of the Office of Strategic Initiatives and Equity at the Department of Aging. Nakano has been Assistant Director of…

    News Sacramento, California – Governor Gavin Newsom today issued a proclamation declaring May 2025, as “Foster Care Month.”The text of the proclamation and a copy can be found below: PROCLAMATIONDuring Foster Care Month, we reaffirm to the more than 35,000 foster…

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI USA: LEADER JEFFRIES: “OUR REPUBLICAN COLLEAGUES CONTINUE TO BE NOTHING MORE THAN RUBBER STAMPS FOR TRUMP’S RECKLESS AND EXTREME AGENDA”

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Hakeem Jeffries (8th District of New York)

    Today, Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries appeared on CNN’s State of the Union with Dana Bash where he emphasized the unity of House and Senate Democrats in opposing the reckless Republican One Big Ugly Bill and serving as a check and balance on the out-of-control Trump White House.

    DANA BASH: Here with me now is the House Democratic Leader, Hakeem Jeffries. Thank you so much for being here this morning, sir. I want to start with that bill. You have vowed to keep the pressure on and stop it from becoming law. Obviously, you’re in the minority, same goes with Democrats in the Senate. How will you do that?

    LEADER JEFFRIES: 
    Trump’s One Big Ugly Bill narrowly escaped the House of Representatives, and we’re going to continue to press our case across the country, partner with Senate Democrats in making clear to the American people the type of damage that this bill would do if it ever became law. This bill actually hurts everyday Americans in order to reward billionaires. It would strip away healthcare from approximately 14 million Americans. Premiums, copays and deductibles for tens of millions more will go up. Actually, if it ever were to be implemented into law, hospitals will close, nursing homes will shut down and people will literally die. At the same time, this bill represents the largest cut to nutritional assistance in American history. It takes food out of the mouths of children, seniors and veterans, and all of this is being done in order to enact massive tax breaks for their billionaire donors like Elon Musk. And then they want to stick the American people with the bill, increase the debt by more than $5 trillion. So I expect that you’ll see strong Democratic opposition in the Senate, just like there was strong Democratic opposition in the House. And the bill just narrowly escaped the House of Representatives.

    DANA BASH: You made these arguments before it passed the House. Democrats are going to make that argument in the Senate, but again, you don’t have the votes, so what makes you think that what you’re saying will prevail and change the outcome?

    LEADER JEFFRIES: The bill is deeply unpopular. If you go back to where we were in 2017, where Republicans, after several failed attempts, finally got their effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act out of the House of Representatives, but it limped out of House and then failed in the Senate. I think the One Big Ugly Bill is setting up for a similar fate, but we can’t let our foot off the gas pedal.

    DANA BASH: I want to ask you about something that happened in your home state of New York. In the past couple of days, Congressman Jerry Nadler said that DHS agents entered his congressional office on Wednesday without a warrant and handcuffed a member of his staff. This, of course, comes after the Trump Justice Department charged Democratic Congresswoman LaMonica McIver with obstructing ICE agents after an altercation at a facility in Newark, New Jersey. Now, I know you previously warned that the administration charging Members of Congress was a, quote, red line. What are you doing now that the red line you talked about has apparently been crossed?

    LEADER JEFFRIES: 
    Well, let me make clear that the House is a separate and co-equal branch of government, the Congress. We don’t work for Donald Trump, we don’t work for the administration, we don’t work for Elon Musk, we work for the American people. And we have a responsibility to serve as a check and balance on an out-of-control executive branch. That’s the constitutional blueprint that was given to us by the framers of the United States democracy that we have inherited over the last few centuries. And so, we’re going to continue to undertake our congressional responsibility, notwithstanding efforts by the Trump administration to try to intimidate Democrats. It’s unfortunate that our Republican colleagues continue to be nothing more than rubber stamps for Trump’s reckless and extreme agenda, and the American people, I think, will ultimately reject that next year when we will take back control of the House of Representatives. In the meantime, in terms of how we will respond to what Trump and the administration have endeavored to do, we will make that decision in a time, place and manner of our choosing, but the response will be continuous and it will meet the moment that is required.

    DANA BASH: What exactly does that mean? Have you not decided how to respond?

    LEADER JEFFRIES: We’ve publicly responded in a variety of different ways. We haven’t let our foot off the gas pedal in terms of additional things that may take place with respect to our congressional oversight authority and capacity. We will respond in a time, place and manner of our choosing if this continues to happen.

    DANA BASH: 
    You believe, as Jerry Nadler said, that the administration is trying to intimidate Democrats?

    LEADER JEFFRIES: I think the administration is clearly trying to intimidate Democrats, in the same way that they’re trying to intimidate the country. This whole shock and awe strategy, this flood the zone with outrageous behavior that they’ve tried to unleash on the American people during the first few months of the Trump administration is all designed to create the appearance of inevitability. But Donald Trump has learned an important lesson, the American people are not interested in bending the knee to a wannabe king. It’s the reason why Donald Trump actually is the most unpopular president at this point of a presidency in American history. The American people have rejected this approach, and we as Congressional Democrats will continue to reject this approach.

    DANA BASH: Mr. Leader, you brought up polls, so let me tell you about a new one that just came out here at CNN this morning. It shows that only 19% of Americans say that your party can get things done. 36% say the same about Republicans. And just 16% say your party has strong leaders. It’s pretty rough, and you are one of those leaders. How do you turn that around?

    LEADER JEFFRIES: Yeah, we don’t have the presidency right now, so that’s always going to be challenging a few months after a presidential election. But we have to continue to make the case, one, that Democrats, of course, are the party that is determined to make life more affordable for everyday Americans, for hardworking American taxpayers, that we believe that we need to lower the high cost of living, which for decades has been going up while the size of the middle class has been going down. So, understandably, there’s real frustration amongst the American people. They should be frustrated. Housing costs are too high, childcare costs—

    DANA BASH: But they’re frustrated with you as well, with Democrats as well.

    LEADER JEFFRIES: Of course, they’re frustrated with the system. But what is interesting, Dana, I think you’re aware of this, every single public poll that has come out since the Trump presidency has had congressional Democrats winning the generic ballot against congressional Republicans. And in fact, we know this is not simply speculative, in every single high-profile special election, Iowa in January, New York in February, Pennsylvania in March, the Wisconsin State Supreme Court race in April and most recently in Omaha, the mayor’s race in May, Democrats have won. So the American people are actually being very clear and decisive in saying who they trust more to govern.

    DANA BASH: We’re gonna have to leave it there. Hakeem Jeffries, the Leader of the House Democrats. Appreciate you being here this morning.

    Full remarks can be watched here.

    ###

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Canada: Canadian Armed Forces Day: Military Liaison Justin Wright

    Source: Government of Canada regional news (2)

    MIL OSI Canada News

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Qatar, Egypt vow to step up efforts to reach temporary ceasefire in Gaza

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    DOHA/Cairo, June 1 (Xinhua) — Egypt and Qatar on Sunday vowed to continue intensive efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip based on a proposal put forward by U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for the Middle East Steven Witkoff.

    A joint statement released by the foreign ministries of both countries said they hoped to quickly reach a preliminary 60-day agreement on a temporary ceasefire that would pave the way for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

    According to the statement, Qatar and Egypt, in coordination with the United States, reaffirmed their commitment to intensifying mediation efforts to resolve the ongoing crisis.

    They called on all parties to support the efforts of the mediators to reach a solution that will ensure stability and calm in the region.

    “This step will help end the unprecedented humanitarian crisis, open border crossings in accordance with certain standards and facilitate the entry of humanitarian and emergency aid into the enclave to alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people,” the statement said.

    The document also emphasizes that the ultimate goal is to end the war in Gaza and begin the reconstruction of the Palestinian enclave. –0–

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IDF says it intercepted a rocket launched from Yemen

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    JERUSALEM, June 1 (Xinhua) — The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement on Sunday that it successfully intercepted a missile launched from Yemen.

    According to Israeli television channel Channel 12, the missile was aimed at Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv, as a result of which the airport was temporarily closed to takeoffs and landings.

    Since March 18, 49 rockets have reportedly been fired from Yemen at the Jewish state.

    According to the Israeli rescue service Magen David Adom, there were no reports of casualties.

    The rocket launch triggered air raid sirens in many areas of central Israel, including West Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. –0–

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI NGOs: Dozens of Palestinians massacred at US-Israel backed food distribution sites

    Source: Médecins Sans Frontières –

    Jerusalem – Dozens of Palestinians were killed and hundreds more injured today, 1 June, as they waited for food at the newly created Gaza Humanitarian Foundation distribution centres in Rafah and close to the Netzarim Corridor, according to the Ministry of Health. Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders (MSF) teams joined the mass casualty response in Nasser hospital, Khan Younis. Patients told MSF they were shot from all sides by drones, helicopters, boats, tanks and Israeli soldiers on the ground. 

    “Today’s events have shown once again that this new system of aid delivery is dehumanising, dangerous and severely ineffective. It has resulted in deaths and injuries of civilians that could have been prevented. Humanitarian aid must be provided only by humanitarian organisations who have the competence and determination to do it safely and effectively,” states Claire Manera, MSF emergency coordinator.

    MSF teams at Nasser hospital treated patients with serious injuries today. Some patients in critical condition are still undergoing surgery. But with the blood banks almost empty, medical staff themselves have had to donate blood.

    “The hospital corridors were filled with patients, but unlike what I have witnessed before, where most of the patients were women and children, today it was mainly men. They lay in their beds in the hallways because the rooms are already packed with injured people. They had visible gunshot wounds in their limbs, and their clothes were soaked with blood,” says Nour Alsaqa, MSF communications officer. “They looked shattered and distraught after trying to secure food for their children, returning instead injured and empty handed. Outside, there was shouting, sirens, a constant rush of new arrivals to the emergency room. Amid the chaos, we received confirmation that a colleague’s brother had been killed while attempting to collect aid from the distribution centre,” she adds. 

    Mansour Sami Abdi, a father of four, described the chaos: “People fought over five pallets. They told us to take food—then they fired from every direction. I ran 200 metres before realising I’d been shot. This isn’t aid. It’s a lie. Are we supposed to go get food for our kids and die?”

    This is the second time this new system of aid distribution has led to bloodshed. On 27 May, the first afternoon of distribution in Rafah, Israeli forces shot dozens of people as wholly insufficient amounts of basic lifesaving supplies were distributed amid chaos.

    As a result of the total siege that was imposed by the Israeli authorities on 2 March, 100 per cent of Gaza is now at risk of famine, according to the United Nations. Since 19 May, the few hundred food trucks brought in – an insufficient fraction of what is needed – have spread despair among the 2 million plus people who have been largely deprived of food, water, and medication for three months now. Totally or partially blocking humanitarian aid to enter Gaza has aggravated the situation of all Gazans. 

    MSF reinforces that, along with displacement orders and bombing campaigns that kill civilians, weaponising aid in this manner may constitute crimes against humanity. Only a lasting ceasefire and the immediate opening of Gaza’s borders for humanitarian aid – including food, medical supplies, fuel and equipment – can ease this man-made catastrophe.

    MIL OSI NGO

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Ukraine and Russia to resume peace talks in Istanbul on June 2

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    ISTANBUL, June 1 (Xinhua) — Ukraine and Russia will resume talks in Istanbul on June 2 as part of ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, Turkish authorities announced Sunday.

    According to a statement from the Turkish presidential office, the meeting of the delegations is scheduled for 13:00 local time /10:00 GMT/ at the Ciragan Palace, located on the European side of Istanbul on the shore of the Bosphorus Strait.

    The previous round of direct talks between the parties took place in this city on May 16, the parties held a face-to-face meeting for the first time since March 2022. However, it was not possible to reach an agreement on a ceasefire. –0–

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘Pax Americana’ in Toronto: How speculative art can help us navigate threats

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Pascal Michelberger, Postdoctoral Scholar, Western Academy for Advanced Research, Western University

    Artist Dara Vandor’s futuristic, commemorative historical plaques on Toronto streets project a U.S.-annexed Canada. (Dara Vandor)

    As part of her ongoing public art series, Pax Americana, Toronto visual artist Dara Vandor has been posting aluminum signs in public spaces.

    These are plaques that reimagine, as the artist writes, the city as “a site of future conflict and occupation” by the United States. The signage, in the style of commemorative historical markers, echoes U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent and repeated threats to annex Canada and “is meant to serve as a dark warning, inviting contemplation on the fragility of nationhood.”

    For example, one plaque, posted on a bridge on Spadina Ave., informs passersby:

    “This spot served as the center of operations for United States Army snipers during Operation McKinley, the campaign to liberate the northern territory formerly known as Canada. From February to May 2035, this site, code-named ‘The Hot Dog Stand,’ served as a concealed sniper’s nest, providing precision fire support, disrupting insurgent movements, and protecting advancing American units.”

    Vandor’s thought-provoking project, which she told CBC News was sparked by anger at Trump’s threats to Canadian sovereignty, underlines how storytelling can be a powerful tool in times of conflict, especially when it affords itself the artistic freedom to envision potential futures before they can become reality.

    Psychological effects

    In order to understand how exactly stories such as the one portrayed on Vandor’s plaques can make a real impact on the way we navigate moments of crisis, we can turn to the work of conflict analysis experts such as Solon Simmons.

    In his recent book on conflict storytelling, Simmons introduces the concept of post-plot pressure.

    The term describes the psychological effect that a story can have on its readers after they finish reading. As Simmons puts it:

    “What makes stories so important (as opposed to just interesting or entertaining) is the effect of the story, and this effect doesn’t end when the story ends. It leaves the viewer/reader/listener with a feeling.”

    Simmons also explains that the kind and amount of post-plot pressure placed upon an audience depends on the type of story being told.

    Projected unhappy ending exerts pressure

    A story, for example, featuring a struggle in which the antagonist eventually triumphs over the protagonist is what Simmons calls a “satirical struggle story.”

    “Satirical” in this context does not necessarily mean that stories of this kind include elements of mockery or sarcasm. Rather, the label goes back to the influential research contributions of Canadian literary theorist Northrop Frye and American historian Hayden White, from which Simmons derives his own framework.

    This is exactly how to understand the story told over its several episodes on Vandor’s Pax Americana plaques: the U.S., as the story’s antagonist, abuses its power and ends up getting away with it, defeating Canadian resistance and annexing what is now only referred to as the “northern territory.”

    As Simmons suggests, conflict stories like this one, where what is viewed as injustice is allowed to prevail, exercise a relatively high level of post-plot pressure. This is mainly because the unhappy ending leaves audiences dissatisfied and with a sense of loss to grapple with.

    Reader reactions

    Simmons also explains that not all readers react to this particular kind of post-plot pressure in the same way. Vandor’s project, for example, has brought out some critical and upset responses.

    As the artist told Toronto Today, some people have called the plaques pro-American propaganda; one online commenter said they should be taken down.

    Julian Bleecker — a researcher, author, designer and engineer with a PhD in history of consciousness whose design studio offers services around future imagining and planning — voiced his objection to the project in a blog post.

    In his opinion, the antagonistic and fatalistic vision of the future portrayed on the plaques runs the risk of “playing into the hands of the very forces that are at work to make the world a less habitable place.”




    Read more:
    The theatre we want in 2040? We used ‘strategic foresight’ to plan on the Prairies


    But, as Simmons argues, conflict stories in which the happy ending never comes can also leave readers with a productive sense of post-plot pressure. In that case, feeling dissatisfied with the story’s outcome can instead motivate people to mobilize and strategize against the perceived injustice.

    Seen in this light, the plaques’ imagined collapse of Canadian sovereignty can therefore also serve as a stark and urgent inspiration, begging response.

    A sign in an alleyway says 'let go of your past, and welcome to our united future.'
    In Dara Vandor’s speculative future, U.S. President Ivanka Trump, standing on a tank, exhorts Torontonians to ‘Let go of your past, and welcome to our united future.’
    (Dara Vandor)

    A cautionary tale

    Fictional storytelling is often viewed as a useful tool that allows us to make sense of real moments of conflict that happened in the past. Think, for example, of Erich Maria Remarque’s famous war novel All Quiet on the Western Front, which was turned into an Oscar-winning film directed by Edward Berger in 2022.

    Our understanding of these kinds of stories as useful comes with the acknowledgement that there is nothing we can do to prevent past conflict. At the same time, the underlying assumption here is that by learning about the past, we can learn from the past and hopefully stop similar crises from ever happening again.




    Read more:
    How stories about alternate worlds can help us imagine a better future: Don’t Call Me Resilient EP 7 transcript


    What makes Vandor’s ongoing project especially valuable is that it moves its reflections on the past into an imagined future. The actual conflict that the plaques refer to is still part of the present, and its future still undecided. Whatever lessons we draw from their cautionary tale about Canadian annexation, we still have time to act upon them before that imagined future can become reality.

    Importance of resistance in the present

    This is exactly what leads historian Camille Bégin to conclude that the project’s appeal to the importance of resistance in the present is particularly strong:

    “It really shows us that the future is not written, that it’s in our hands to act in the present to forge the future that we want.”

    Even though Vandor’s project tells a story of Canadian defeat, it also highlights that Canadians did resist, a thought that should appeal to anyone opposed to Trump’s vision of territorial expansion.

    Or, and this is perhaps the most hopeful reflection coming out of the project, if Canadians come together and resist now, Trump’s threat of annexation may never get that far.

    The Conversation

    Pascal Michelberger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. ‘Pax Americana’ in Toronto: How speculative art can help us navigate threats – https://theconversation.com/pax-americana-in-toronto-how-speculative-art-can-help-us-navigate-threats-256755

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Russia: At least 31 killed in Israeli shelling near aid center in southern Gaza – health directorate

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian – People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    GAZA, June 1 (Xinhua) — At least 31 Palestinians were killed Sunday in Israeli shelling near a humanitarian aid center in the southern Gaza Strip, Palestinian sources said.

    At least 31 people were killed and dozens of others were seriously wounded this morning when Israeli troops opened fire near a humanitarian aid distribution point in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip where residents had gathered to receive aid, the Gaza Health Authority said in a statement.

    Most of the wounds were to the upper body and the death toll could rise due to the severity of the injuries, said Mohammed Abu Afash, director of the Gaza Medical Aid Organization, adding that ambulances were having difficulty reaching the scene due to ongoing Israeli military action.

    Eyewitnesses told Xinhua that thousands of people arrived at the aid center in the early morning hours when gunfire and explosions began.

    Calling the incident part of a “series of repeated attacks” by Israel on aid distribution points, the Hamas-controlled Gaza government’s press office said in a press statement that the work in the area was carried out in coordination with a US-Israeli company and under the supervision of the Israeli military.

    Also on Sunday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement that it was not aware of any casualties in the attack on the aid distribution site and that the matter was still under review.

    Israeli media, citing military sources, claim that the target of Israeli military operations in the area were “terrorist elements.”

    Israel closed border crossings and reduced humanitarian aid into Gaza on March 2. Limited access has been allowed since May 22. –0–

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘Pax Americana’ in Toronto? Speculative art can help us navigate threats

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Pascal Michelberger, Postdoctoral Scholar, Western Academy for Advanced Research, Western University

    Artist Dara Vandor’s futuristic, commemorative historical plaques on Toronto streets project a U.S.-annexed Canada. (Dara Vandor)

    As part of her ongoing public art series, Pax Americana, Toronto visual artist Dara Vandor has been posting aluminum signs in public spaces.

    These are plaques that reimagine, as the artist writes, the city as “a site of future conflict and occupation” by the United States. The signage, in the style of commemorative historical markers, echoes U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent and repeated threats to annex Canada and “is meant to serve as a dark warning, inviting contemplation on the fragility of nationhood.”

    For example, one plaque, posted on a bridge on Spadina Ave., informs passersby:

    “This spot served as the center of operations for United States Army snipers during Operation McKinley, the campaign to liberate the northern territory formerly known as Canada. From February to May 2035, this site, code-named ‘The Hot Dog Stand,’ served as a concealed sniper’s nest, providing precision fire support, disrupting insurgent movements, and protecting advancing American units.”

    Vandor’s thought-provoking project, which she told CBC News was sparked by anger at Trump’s threats to Canadian sovereignty, underlines how storytelling can be a powerful tool in times of conflict, especially when it affords itself the artistic freedom to envision potential futures before they can become reality.

    Psychological effects

    In order to understand how exactly stories such as the one portrayed on Vandor’s plaques can make a real impact on the way we navigate moments of crisis, we can turn to the work of conflict analysis experts such as Solon Simmons.

    In his recent book on conflict storytelling, Simmons introduces the concept of post-plot pressure.

    The term describes the psychological effect that a story can have on its readers after they finish reading. As Simmons puts it:

    “What makes stories so important (as opposed to just interesting or entertaining) is the effect of the story, and this effect doesn’t end when the story ends. It leaves the viewer/reader/listener with a feeling.”

    Simmons also explains that the kind and amount of post-plot pressure placed upon an audience depends on the type of story being told.

    Projected unhappy ending exerts pressure

    A story, for example, featuring a struggle in which the antagonist eventually triumphs over the protagonist is what Simmons calls a “satirical struggle story.”

    “Satirical” in this context does not necessarily mean that stories of this kind include elements of mockery or sarcasm. Rather, the label goes back to the influential research contributions of Canadian literary theorist Northrop Frye and American historian Hayden White, from which Simmons derives his own framework.

    This is exactly how to understand the story told over its several episodes on Vandor’s Pax Americana plaques: the U.S., as the story’s antagonist, abuses its power and ends up getting away with it, defeating Canadian resistance and annexing what is now only referred to as the “northern territory.”

    As Simmons suggests, conflict stories like this one, where what is viewed as injustice is allowed to prevail, exercise a relatively high level of post-plot pressure. This is mainly because the unhappy ending leaves audiences dissatisfied and with a sense of loss to grapple with.

    Reader reactions

    Simmons also explains that not all readers react to this particular kind of post-plot pressure in the same way. Vandor’s project, for example, has brought out some critical and upset responses.

    As the artist told Toronto Today, some people have called the plaques pro-American propaganda; one online commenter said they should be taken down.

    Julian Bleecker — a researcher, author, designer and engineer with a PhD in history of consciousness whose design studio offers services around future imagining and planning — voiced his objection to the project in a blog post.

    In his opinion, the antagonistic and fatalistic vision of the future portrayed on the plaques runs the risk of “playing into the hands of the very forces that are at work to make the world a less habitable place.”




    Read more:
    The theatre we want in 2040? We used ‘strategic foresight’ to plan on the Prairies


    But, as Simmons argues, conflict stories in which the happy ending never comes can also leave readers with a productive sense of post-plot pressure. In that case, feeling dissatisfied with the story’s outcome can instead motivate people to mobilize and strategize against the perceived injustice.

    Seen in this light, the plaques’ imagined collapse of Canadian sovereignty can therefore also serve as a stark and urgent inspiration, begging response.

    In Dara Vandor’s speculative future, U.S. President Ivanka Trump, standing on a tank, exhorts Torontonians to ‘Let go of your past, and welcome to our united future.’
    (Dara Vandor)

    A cautionary tale

    Fictional storytelling is often viewed as a useful tool that allows us to make sense of real moments of conflict that happened in the past. Think, for example, of Erich Maria Remarque’s famous war novel All Quiet on the Western Front, which was turned into an Oscar-winning film directed by Edward Berger in 2022.

    Our understanding of these kinds of stories as useful comes with the acknowledgement that there is nothing we can do to prevent past conflict. At the same time, the underlying assumption here is that by learning about the past, we can learn from the past and hopefully stop similar crises from ever happening again.




    Read more:
    How stories about alternate worlds can help us imagine a better future: Don’t Call Me Resilient EP 7 transcript


    What makes Vandor’s ongoing project especially valuable is that it moves its reflections on the past into an imagined future. The actual conflict that the plaques refer to is still part of the present, and its future still undecided. Whatever lessons we draw from their cautionary tale about Canadian annexation, we still have time to act upon them before that imagined future can become reality.

    Importance of resistance in the present

    This is exactly what leads historian Camille Bégin to conclude that the project’s appeal to the importance of resistance in the present is particularly strong:

    “It really shows us that the future is not written, that it’s in our hands to act in the present to forge the future that we want.”

    Even though Vandor’s project tells a story of Canadian defeat, it also highlights that Canadians did resist, a thought that should appeal to anyone opposed to Trump’s vision of territorial expansion.

    Or, and this is perhaps the most hopeful reflection coming out of the project, if Canadians come together and resist now, Trump’s threat of annexation may never get that far.

    Pascal Michelberger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. ‘Pax Americana’ in Toronto? Speculative art can help us navigate threats – https://theconversation.com/pax-americana-in-toronto-speculative-art-can-help-us-navigate-threats-256755

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: How Israel manufactured a looting crisis to cover up its Gaza famine

    By Muhammad Shehada

    Since the onset of its genocide, Israel has persistently pushed a narrative that the famine devastating Gaza is not of its own making, but the result of “Hamas looting aid”.

    This claim, repeated across mainstream media and parroted by officials, has been used to deflect responsibility for what many human rights experts have called a deliberate starvation campaign.

    Even after Israel fully banned the entry of food, water, fuel, and medicine on March 2, Tel Aviv continued to maintain that Hamas looting, not Israeli policy, was to blame for the humanitarian catastrophe.

    But that narrative has now been discredited by Israel’s internal reporting. Last week, the Israeli military admitted internally that out of 110 looting incidents they documented, none were carried out by Hamas.

    Instead, the looting was done by “armed gangs, organised clans” and, to a lesser extent, starved civilians.

    Those very gangs and clans are backed by Israel; they enjoy full Israeli army protection and operate in areas Israel deems “extermination zones”, where any Palestinian trying to enter would be killed or kidnapped on the spot.

    The gangs had vanished during the two-month ceasefire but conveniently re-emerged as soon as Israel was pressured into allowing a limited trickle of aid to enter. The timing is no coincidence; Israeli policy has deliberately weaponised anarchy to preserve the conditions for starvation.

    This pushed even the UAE to strongly condemn Israel after the army forced an Emirati aid convoy to drive through a “red zone” where Israel-backed gangs looted 23 out of 24 trucks.

    So why does Israel continue to cling to a demonstrably false narrative while openly engineering a looting crisis through its proxies? Because the myth of “Hamas looting” serves a critical strategic purpose: to whitewash and legitimise a new plan that institutionalises starvation for blackmail, ethnic cleansing, collective punishment, and mass internment through a shell Israeli organisation.

    This is coupled with another alarming tactic of recruiting warlords, drug dealers, and criminals to create a puppet “anti-terror” force.

    Israel’s looting myth
    The “looting” talking point is devoid of any logic, as Hamas would be able to do very little with thousands of tons of looted aid.

    Israel and US Ambassador Mike Huckabee both claim Hamas uses the looted aid to buy new weaponry. But where would they buy such weapons from when Gaza is fully sealed off by Israel, and Rafah — the city of smuggling tunnels — is under full Israeli control?

    Israel claims Hamas sells looted aid on the black market. But, again, what would they do with the money? Virtually nothing is allowed into Gaza except a trickle of food.

    Israel also claims Hamas uses looted aid to recruit new militants, but Hamas doesn’t operate this way. The group depends on utmost secrecy and discipline in its operations.

    Each new member passes through a long process of vetting, training, and tests to minimise the risk of infiltration. It would compromise Hamas to recruit people openly, whose only attachment to the group is bread rather than ideological commitment.

    Perhaps most damning is that Israel has never captured a single instance of Hamas looting aid, despite subjecting Gaza to the most meticulous surveillance on earth. Israeli predator drones cover every inch of the enclave every minute of the day, yet there is nothing to show for Israel’s claims.

    Hamas is also aware that hijacking and looting aid trucks could lead to Israel bombing the vehicles and diverting them from their predetermined route.

    The Israeli army has done this on countless occasions when it fired at or bombed humanitarian convoys under the pretext that Hamas policemen came near the trucks. Ironically, those law enforcement officials were actually trying to prevent looting when they were targeted.

    Israel’s allies reject the narrative
    Israel’s strongest supporters have refuted the “Hamas looting” claim. President Joe Biden’s humanitarian envoy, David Satterfield, admitted in February of last year that “no Israeli official has . . . come to the administration with specific evidence of diversion or theft of assistance delivered by the UN”.

    Satterfield reiterated last Tuesday that Israel has never privately alleged or offered evidence of Hamas stealing aid from the UN and INGO channels. Israel’s ambassador to the EU, Haim Regev, said in mid-October 2023 that “there’s no evidence EU aid went to Hamas”.

    Cindy McCain, World Food Programme’s chief and widow of one of the most pro-Israeli GOP senators, forcefully rejected Israel’s narrative on Sunday, saying that looting “doesn’t have anything to do with Hamas . . .  it has simply to do with the fact these people are starving to death”.

    The Washington Post, meanwhile, reported last week that “Israel has never presented evidence publicly or privately to humanitarian organisations or Western government officials to back up claims that Hamas had systematically stolen aid brought into Gaza”.

    An internal memo jointly drafted by UN agencies and 20 INGOs in April, and viewed by The New Arab, stated that “there is no evidence of large-scale aid diversion”.

    Gangs and scarcity are responsible for looting
    While Israel failed to show any evidence of Hamas stealing aid, the only documented organised systematic looting happening in Gaza right now is by Israeli-backed criminal gangs who enjoy full protection from the Israeli army, according to the Washington Post, Financial Times, Ha’aretz, and the UN.

    A UN memo said these gangs established a “military complex” in the heart of Rafah after Israel fully depopulated the city. Humanitarian officials say the looting often happens right in front of Israeli troops and tanks, less than 100m away, who take no action until the local police arrive, with Israeli troops then opening fire at them.

    Israel not only provides protection and backing to these criminal gangs but has created the perfect conditions for looting to thrive through scarcity and a collapsing state of law and order.

    Currently, a single bag of wheat flour sells for about 1,500 NIS ($425), which makes it profitable for gangs to loot and sell on the market. These astronomical prices are driven by scarcity after Israel banned all food from entering Gaza for nearly 80 days, then allowed less than 20 percent of what Gaza needs on a normal day for basic survival after intense international pressure.

    During the ceasefire, however, when Israel was allowing 600 trucks to enter per day, prices went back to normal and looting disappeared because it was no longer profitable due to the abundance of food, and because the police were able to resume their work.

    Manufactured crisis to advance genocide
    The engineered looting crisis has long served as a convenient excuse to cover up the deliberate weaponisation of starvation against Gaza’s entire population, allowing Israel to distract from its restrictions on the entry of aid and the spread of famine by saying Hamas is to blame for stealing aid.

    But now, this manufactured crisis is serving a second objective: to justify a dystopian ‘aid plan’ Israel is implementing in Gaza that has been condemned and boycotted by every UN agency and humanitarian organisation working in the enclave, as well as donor countries.

    A joint UN-INGO memo warned that the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation would facilitate the use of aid for forcible expulsion, by telling Gazans the only way they can receive food is by moving south to Rafah on Egypt’s border.

    GHF, which Israeli opposition leaders said was an Israeli shell funded by Mossad, began its operations last Tuesday after being rocked by two scandals in one day.

    GHF’s CEO had resigned on Sunday in protest of the organisation violating the principles of humanitarianism, while the organisation shut down its registered headquarters in Switzerland as soon as Swiss authorities launched an investigation.

    Images coming out of the GHF’s militarised aid distribution site were immediately likened to concentration camps, where hundreds of emaciated Gazans were crowded into metal cages like cattle under the boiling sun, surrounded by armed US mercenaries, Israeli troops, and sand dunes.

    Alarmingly, people who received aid noted the presence of Arabic speakers in addition to American mercenaries. Last week, the Israel-backed Islamic State-linked gang leader Yasser Abu Shabab emerged in Rafah again after a long disappearance.

    Abu Shabab, a drug dealer and wanted criminal previously arrested multiple times by the local police, was the primary suspect in the systematic looting of aid under Israeli protection. This time, however, he emerged in a brand new uniform and military gear and started a Facebook page promoting himself in English and Arabic to mark a new “anti-terror” force operating in Israel-controlled Rafah.

    Additional pictures viewed by The New Arab showed multiple armed men dressed in the same uniform as Abu Shabab armed with M-16s standing in front of a humanitarian convoy.

    The unravelling of Israel’s “Hamas looting” narrative lays bare a chilling truth: starvation in Gaza is not collateral damage — it is a calculated weapon in a broader campaign of collective punishment and displacement.

    By cultivating chaos, empowering criminal gangs, and then manipulating the humanitarian crisis they manufactured, Israel seeks to maintain extreme restrictions on aid, while externalising blame and avoiding accountability.

    It is the machinery of genocide disguised in bureaucratic language and carried out under the watchful eyes of the world.

    Muhammad Shehada is a Palestinian writer and analyst from Gaza and the European Union affairs manager at Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor. The article was first published by The New Arab. On X at: @muhammadshehad2

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz