Question for written answer E-000978/2025 to the Commission Rule 144 Sofie Eriksson (S&D), Thomas Pellerin-Carlin (S&D), Bruno Tobback (S&D), Niels Fuglsang (S&D), Annalisa Corrado (S&D), Mohammed Chahim (S&D), Eero Heinäluoma (S&D), Elena Sancho Murillo (S&D), Bruno Gonçalves (S&D), Yannis Maniatis (S&D)
Elon Musk has demonstrated his ability to use Starlink to pressure President Zelenskyy into aligning with US demands. The EU cannot afford to become similarly dependent on Starlink. While Starlink’s uptake remains limited for now, we are clearly vulnerable until the EU’s IRIS² becomes operational – particularly in the rapidly evolving security sector and in sparsely populated areas with inadequate infrastructure. Despite this, the EU lacks a coherent strategy to safeguard its independence from Elon Musk.
We therefore urge the Commission to clarify whether it has considered presenting measures that:
1.create a firewall between Elon Musk and any potential future operations of Starlink in the EU?
2.prevent European authorities and defence institutions from becoming reliant on Starlink for connectivity?
3.ensure a unified EU security assessment of the use of Starlink, to support public entities in their procurement processes?
Question for written answer E-000984/2025 to the Council Rule 144 João Oliveira (The Left)
The ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on 15 January 2025 made it possible to ramp up humanitarian aid, although a far cry from what is really needed. According to figures dating from mid-February from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, 91 % of the Palestinian people are still enduring acute food insecurity. More than 48 000 Palestinians have lost their lives and over 111 000 have been wounded owing to Israel’s genocide-like action. On top of this, some 70 % of Palestine’s infrastructure has been razed to the ground, as its territory continues to be destroyed.
Despite the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, Israeli military attacks in the West Bank are going from bad to worse. According to the UN, more than 40 000 Palestinians have been forced from their homes and land, on a scale that hasn’t been seen in decades, and between 21 January and 20 February of this year, Israeli forces reportedly killed 51 Palestinians in the West Bank.
In the light of the above:
1.What measures is the Council taking to ensure that the ceasefire becomes permanent and that humanitarian aid actually finds its way to where it is needed?
2.Is the Council in favour of suspending the EU-Israel Association Agreement and imposing an arms embargo, among other measures?
3.What measures will the Council take to ensure that the Palestinian people can enjoy their rights as a nation, to put an end to the Israeli occupation and to create a Palestine state, as has been called for in UN resolutions?
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Jon Ihle
16 March 2025
The progress of annual inflation, at least up until February, looked like it was going in the wrong direction. Are you still confident that it will converge towards 2% sometime this year?
The disinflation process is on track. There was a small pick-up inflation in recent months, but this had been expected, mostly on account of unfavourable base effects in November, December and January.
The main reason for our confidence that inflation will come down to 2% is that all indicators for services and underlying inflation are moving in the right direction. A very important one is compensation per employee. According to recent data and in line with our projections, wage growth is moderating, which will help services inflation to gradually decline.
At the same time, we need to keep in mind that factors like tariffs and fiscal policy are causing a lot of uncertainty. But taking this into account, we are confident that headline inflation will converge on a sustainable basis towards our 2% medium-term target towards the end of this year or the beginning of next.
Let’s talk about some of the factors in this uncertain environment. What are the specific factors that are influencing the Governing Council’s thinking about the rate path right now, and how has that changed since the start of the easing cycle?
We have already reduced interest rates by a total of 150 basis points. This is what we refer to in our monetary policy statement as a “meaningfully less restrictive” stance than at the beginning of the cycle.
Our projections now show that inflation will converge towards our target in the medium term. But again, we need to consider the uncertainty of the current environment, which is even higher than it was during the pandemic. For instance, our projections don’t include the definitive level of the tariffs imposed by the United States and its trade partners, since the current situation is so volatile.
Nevertheless, we are confident that inflation is moving towards our target on a sustainable basis, for example due to the moderation in wage growth I mentioned earlier. Even energy prices, which had also resulted in a small pick-up in inflation, have started to decline.
Markets in the last few weeks have had some very strong reactions to the external environment. I’m thinking of the increase in German bond yields, changing expectations for fewer rate cuts from the ECB and the stock market correction in the United States. Does any of that feed into the ECB’s thinking on the rate path?
We look at a wide range of indicators, all of which have an impact on our analysis. These include the evolution of wages and of the economy in terms of domestic demand and growth. And we of course look at financing conditions, for which our bank lending survey is very useful.
It’s true that bond yields have increased due to the new German Government’s budgetary plans and that we have seen a correction in US equities from very high levels. But we also need to try to look through the short-term evolution of markets and distinguish between short-term volatility and permanent or medium-term forces. If we were to be as volatile as the markets, that wouldn’t be very reassuring.
You said the uncertainty now is even greater than during the pandemic. How would you characterise it? What are the big unknowns at the moment?
First, the policies of the new US Administration. There’s a lot of talk about tariffs, but it’s not just about that. The new Administration has also been quite clear about deregulating banks, non-banks and crypto-assets. And beyond that, they have announced that they want to modify corporate tax, which could affect capital flows across the Atlantic. In general, what we’re seeing is that the new US Administration isn’t very open to continuing with multilateralism, which is about cooperation across jurisdictions and finding common solutions for common problems. This is a very important change, and a big source of uncertainty.
Second, and as a result of the new Administration’s attitude towards defence, we have the European Commission’s proposal to increase national defence spending by 1.5% of GDP. This is certainly a decision in the right direction, and it will have an impact on the macroeconomic outlook. We don’t know enough details about the package to make an accurate assessment about its impact on the economy, but it will likely be positive for growth and have a limited impact on inflation.
Let’s focus on defence. Are you comfortable with national budget rules being relaxed to accommodate more defence spending? Will you need to adjust your monetary policy as those changes in fiscal policy come through?
We always take fiscal policy into account because it interacts with monetary policy. In this case, we need to know the concrete details of the package before we can make an accurate assessment. How will spending be distributed across items? In terms of economic impact, spending more on military wages is not the same as spending more on weapons. How much will be spent outside of the EU? How is it going to be financed? One part will be common debt, but the package is much larger than that. The rest could be covered by taxes or a reduction in public spending. All of these factors are important to know in order to assess the impact of the package on the economy.
It looks like we may be moving closer towards a resolution of the war in Ukraine, or at least a ceasefire. Would that be beneficial for the euro area economy? Would it change anything of what you’ve outlined so far?
From a human standpoint, a peace agreement would obviously be very positive. And in general, it would be beneficial for the economy as well. But we would need to see the exact terms of a potential settlement to know for sure.
Turning to the United States, what role do you see for the ECB in terms of managing trade shocks and the overall approach of the Trump administration?
We need to keep in mind that the current situation is very volatile. It seems like every day a new tariff is imposed or one that has already been announced is removed. Hopefully we’ll soon have more clarity on the US Administration’s plans for the time ahead.
Obviously, a trade war would be a lose-lose situation for everybody. It would have a much worse impact on growth than on inflation. This is because increasing tariffs raises prices at first, but lower growth subsequently offsets this initial price increase. We also need to look not only at bilateral tariffs between the United States and Europe but also at what economists call “trade diversion”. This means that, for example, tariffs imposed by the United States on Chinese goods could redirect trade flows to Europe, along with whatever economic impact that may have.
Once we have all the details of the final policies, we will be able to better assess their impact based on all these factors. We are now using a baseline scenario and several alternative scenarios with different trade distortions to try to calibrate the impact as best as we can.
Another aspect of the uncertainty in the United States is the way Trump is changing the relationship of the White House to many of the independent agencies in Washington. One of those might be the Federal Reserve. What would it mean for the ECB if its independence were to erode under President Trump? Has that scenario been discussed at all in the Governing Council?
No, we haven’t discussed that because we can’t imagine it happening. The independence of the Federal Reserve is enshrined in law. We will always defend the independence of central banks, which is crucial to ensure they can fulfil their mandates.
There are a lot of question marks over the predictability of the United States. Does Europe need to start thinking about making the euro more of a global reserve currency, if the dollar becomes less reliable?
The euro is already a reserve currency, and strengthening its role in that respect is not part of our mandate. But keeping inflation low, increasing the potential growth of the European economy, signalling openness to trade agreements with different jurisdictions and making the European Union a model for free trade all over the world – all of this would strengthen the role of the euro as a reserve currency.
But do you see a need for Europe to step more into that role ahead of the United States?
I wouldn’t make comparisons with the United States. What Europe should do is maintain the position that it has always had as an open economy, in favour of free trade, the free flow of capital and multilateralism.
Earlier you said that a trade war would be very detrimental to growth, but we don’t know all the details yet. How has the ECB’s view on euro area growth evolved in the last few months?
We have downgraded our growth outlook for 2025 and 2026 by 0.2 percentage points. There are two main drivers behind that downward revision. First, uncertainty about the economy in the coming months has clearly dented confidence, and this is having an impact on investment. And second, a possible trade war would reduce net exports.
Philip Lane has said recently that the conditions in the euro area are right for a pick-up in household consumption. Do you share his optimism that it can increase and maybe drive economic growth?
All the factors that Philip indicated are correct. Real wages have increased, inflation is declining, interest rates are coming down and financing conditions are better. But still, the reality is that consumption is not picking up.
This is because consumers don’t always react to developments in their short-term real disposable income. They also consider what might happen with the economy over the medium term, which is clouded in uncertainty. The possibility of a trade war or wider geopolitical conflict has an impact on consumer confidence.
Eventually, the increase in the factors that Philip pointed out will prevail. But right now, the lack of consumer confidence due to the uncertainty of the world economy is offsetting that effect.
European households have enormous cash savings at the moment, especially since the pandemic. Christine Lagarde has spoken frequently about turning those cash savings into investment to drive innovation and growth. Are you optimistic that this can become a reality?
The capital markets union is certainly very important, but looking at the current economic situation in Europe, it’s crucial to put structural reforms in place to make it more productive and competitive. This is also what the Letta and Draghi reports argued.
Fully integrating the internal market will be key here. It’s very difficult to have a capital markets union if you don’t have an integrated economy for goods and services. There are certainly concrete actions we can take to complete the capital markets union, but we should also focus on removing the internal obstacles to a real single market in Europe.
There are three key elements here: fully integrating the Single Market, completing the banking union and completing the capital markets union. We must make progress on these three elements in parallel; it will be very difficult to make progress on one of them in isolation.
Which of those elements would you say the ECB has the most influence on? And what can it do?
Our mandate is price stability, but we also have an advisory role and produce expert opinions. Our economists and researchers carry out a lot of analytical work on Europe. The European Council and the Commission listen to what we have to say, and we are also accountable to the European Parliament. So we continuously use our voice to make the points that we believe are key to making the European economy more productive and competitive.
Are you happy with the levels of credit flow from European banks to households and businesses?
They are on the rise, following the rate cuts and the improvement in financing conditions. Demand for credit is not very strong, at least from a corporate standpoint, although it’s gradually increasing. This has to do with the lack of investor confidence. If you have doubts about the future and you’re waiting to see what will happen with trade, fiscal policy and geopolitical risk, you don’t invest, so you also don’t borrow. But in the case of households, we have started to see a significant increase in demand for mortgages.
Speaking of housing: in several countries of the euro area, housing is in crisis. There’s an undersupply, and financing isn’t available to everybody that wants to buy a house. Do you think at this stage, nearly 15 years after the financial crisis, that lending rules are still too tight? Have regulators overcorrected on capital rules for banks, harming consumers and households?
The current situation is very different to the one that we had 15 years ago. As a finance minister in Spain, I was dealing with the burst of a big housing and credit bubble, similar to what we saw in Ireland. Now, residential real estate prices are a big problem, but the drivers aren’t the same as the ones we had back then. From a financing standpoint, the situation is very different because the banks’ solvency is not in question.
That being said, current developments in house prices are having a very negative impact on young people, who have a lot of trouble accessing housing. In some countries, this may have to do with issues with the rental market and how it is regulated. Policies should be put in place to make housing, mainly in the rental market, much more affordable. At the European level, improving the performance of the rental market will be very important in the near future. We should foster common action to achieve this, because it’s a significant source of social upset.
But this is for national governments to do, not the ECB. We do need to analyse the situation, however, because not all countries are in the same position with respect to their rental markets. And there are lessons to be learned from the policies some countries have put in place.
Source: Rosneft – Rosneft – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
Bashneft (part of Rosneft) allocated 9.5 billion rubles for environmental projects in 2024. Over the past five years, Bashneft’s green investments have exceeded 37.6 billion rubles.
Preservation of the environment for future generations is an integral part of the corporate culture of Rosneft Oil Company. The activities of all the Company’s enterprises are aimed at achieving leadership positions in the field of minimizing the impact on the environment and improving the environmental friendliness of production.
One of the significant areas of Bashneft’s environmental activities is the restoration of forests and aquatic bioresources. In 2024, the Company’s employees planted almost 750 thousand trees on an area of more than 200 hectares in the Republic of Bashkortostan, the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug – Yugra and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug. This figure exceeds the results of the previous period by 45%.
As part of initiatives to preserve ecosystems and maintain biodiversity in the regions where it operates, Bashneft is implementing projects to reproduce aquatic bioresources. Oil workers have released more than 160,000 sterlet, muksun and salmon fry into the water bodies of Bashkortostan, the Khanty-Mansiysk and Nenets Autonomous Okrugs. The releases were carried out under the supervision of employees of the departments of state control, supervision and protection of aquatic biological resources, who select suitable water bodies based on optimal conditions for reproduction and restoration of the population.
The biological treatment facilities of the Ufa group of oil refineries have processed 157 million m3 of wastewater since their launch in 2019. The biological treatment facilities serve not only the Bashneft oil refineries, but also treat wastewater from more than 50 enterprises in the northern industrial zone of Ufa and stormwater. The treatment facilities provide the highest level of purification of industrial, stormwater and domestic wastewater, which increases the volume of reused water in technological processes by 2.5 times. Thanks to the membrane reactor technology, all impurities and microorganisms are removed from the wastewater. As a result, the water quality meets the standards for water bodies used for fisheries.
Reference:
ANK Bashneft is one of the oldest enterprises in the country’s oil and gas industry, operating in the extraction and processing of oil and gas. The company’s key assets, including an oil refining and petrochemical complex, are located in the Republic of Bashkortostan. Oil and gas exploration and production are also carried out in the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug – Yugra, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Orenburg Region, the Perm Territory and the Republic of Tatarstan.
Department of Information and Advertising of PJSC NK Rosneft March 17, 2025
Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.
How we protected the UK and space in February 2025
This report was issued in March 2025 and covers the time period 1 February 2025 to 28 February 2025 inclusive.
February was a highly active month which saw uncontrolled re-entry alerts at their highest level since our records began. All NSpOC warning and protection services functioned as expected throughout the period.
Re-entry Analysis
February has seen an increase in the number of objects re-entering Earth’s atmosphere when compared to the previous month.
Of the 129 objects monitored for re-entry this month, 119 were satellites, 5 rocket bodies and 5 were classified as unknown objects, likely to be either a rocket body or a satellite
In-Space Collision Avoidance
Collision risks to UK-licenced satellites declined by 5% in January, but remained above the 12- month rolling average of 2,376.
Chart showing number of collision risks to UK-licensed satellites monitored by month. March: 1,903, April: 1,899, May: 2,560, June: 1,881, July: 1,795, August: 2,137, September: 3,041, October: 3,181, November: 2,722, December: 2,142, January: 2,694, February: 2,567
Number of Objects in Space
There was an increase to the in-orbit population during January, with 380 newly catalogued objects added to the US Satellite Catalogue.
110 newly catalogued objects were attributed to the SpaceX Transporter-12 mission, ranging from Earth imaging satellites to re-entry vehicles as well as a ‘selfie’ satellite.
Fragmentation Analysis
There were no new on-orbit fragmentations during February.
Space weather
Space weather was mostly minor to moderate throughout February, with some periods of increased activity. Key events this period included:
Early – Mid February:
Frequent minor to moderate radio blackouts caused limited HF communication outages on the sunlit side of Earth. Isolated minor geomagnetic storms were triggered by fast solar winds but had limited impacts. Active high-energy electron fluence may have caused satellite charging.
23 February:
A Strong (R3) radio blackout affected a wide area on the sunlit side, with possible minor disruptions to satellite navigation systems.
25 February:
A Minor (S1) radiation storm occurred, potentially causing occasional Single Event Upsets (SEUs).
Late February:
Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms were recorded, likely causing minor satellite orientation issues.
Comments
The National Space Operations Centre combines and coordinates UK civil and military space domain awareness capabilities to enable operations, promote prosperity and protect UK interests in space and on Earth from space-related threats, risks and hazards
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte, Associate Professor in Quantitative Political Science, University of Southampton
From a very young age, we’re socialised to view the world as being made up of “goodies” and “baddies”. When you’re a child fooling around with your friends in the playground, nobody ever wants to be the baddy. And when it comes to dressing up, everybody wants to be Luke Skywalker – not Darth Vader.
This oversimplified way of viewing the world as being made up of right and wrong or good people and bad people doesn’t dissipate as we grow older. If anything, it tends to solidify as we form the social identities that define who we are in adult life.
This is particularly the case when it comes to our political identities and, specifically, the partisan identities and loyalties that individuals attach themselves to.
Partisanship is one hell of a powerful force. Not only does sticking a party label under a candidate determine whether we support them or not – often regardless of what the individual candidate actually stands for – but it also shapes how we view the state of the country and economy. Note how Democrats’ view of how the US economy was doing tanked the day Donald Trump took office, while Republicans’ positivity about the same economy spiked.
Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.
Our partisanship can also affect who we choose to socialise with, who we share a beer with, and who we date. There is even evidence that it affects who gets hired and who doesn’t. Knowing who your neighbour votes for and if they vote for “your team” shapes your view of them as good or bad.
In a new study, I show that the reverse is also true. Knowing someone is good or bad shapes if we think they are one of “us” or one of “them”. In other words, partisans project their own political identities onto people they view as good, and project the political identities of their opponents onto those they dislike.
Who do Darth Vader and Cinderella vote for?
The first part of the study involved a social experiment that applied a political twist on a childish game. In a representative survey of thousands of respondents from both the US and UK, participants were shown images of fictional characters. These were heroes like Harry Potter and Spiderman, or villains like Scar from Disney’s The Lion King and Joffrey Baratheon from Game of Thrones.
Participants were then asked to guess each character’s political affiliation. What emerged was a striking pattern: participants thought that heroes voted for the same party as them, and that villains voted for the opposing party.
Essentially, US Democrats consistently thought Harry Potter and his friends Ron and Hermione voted Democrat, whereas Republicans consistently thought they voted Republican. Similar behaviour was expected of heroes (and the opposite of villains) from across a whole host of characters from different film and fiction.
Percentages who thought each character voted for ‘their’ party:
Heroes in pink, villains in blue: how we think fictional characters vote. Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte, CC BY-ND
Participants thought Spiderman, Cinderella, Yoda, Aladdin, Brienne of Tarth, Gandalf and Captain America shared their political views. They dismissed Kylo Ren, Ursula the sea witch, Cersei Lannister and Thanos as siding with their political opposition.
Participants were also asked to read a short story about a local politician. In one version of the story, the politician was depicted as a generous figure who donated money to charity. In another, the same politician was shown in a negative light, and as having been accused of corruption. At no point in the story was the partisanship of the politician mentioned.
Despite the absence of any direct mention of partisanship, respondents falsely “remembered” the politician’s party affiliation in a way that aligned with the moral tone of the story. Labour-voting participants who read the generous politician story said they remembered it was about a Labour politician. Conservative-voting participants reading the same story said they remembered it being about a Conservative politician. The reverse pattern was observed among participants who read the corrupt politician story.
These results are striking. Even when there is nothing to be remembered and participants could say that partisanship wasn’t part of the story, voters read what they wanted between the lines based on their own tribal political identities.
These studies demonstrate that partisan identities undermine voter rationality. Politically motivated projection – assuming those who are good must be one of “us” and those who are bad must be one of “them” – doesn’t just shape how we view others; it reinforces and consolidates partisan divisions.
If we assume the person who lives next door is a lousy neighbour because they vote for our political opponents, and simultaneously assume the person who lives down the street votes for our political opponents because they are a lousy neighbour, then we very quickly fall into a scenario where our politically tribal instincts feel increasingly justified.
This cycle of political villainisation deepens divides, making it harder to find common ground. If we continue to let partisanship shape not just how we vote but how we see each other, we risk turning those who don’t share our political views into our enemies.
Stuart J. Turnbull-Dugarte has received funding from the British Academy and the Leverhulme Trust
A fire at a nightclub in North Macedonia has killed at least 59 people and injured more than 150. The blaze broke out at the Pulse nightclub in Kočani, where around 500 people were attending a concert.
Witnesses reported that pyrotechnics used during the performance ignited the ceiling, causing flames to spread rapidly.
Authorities have arrested 20 people so far, including the club’s manager. Investigations continue. The North Macedonian government has declared a seven-day mourning period.
While building fires are not limited to nightclubs, many of the most devastating building fires in history have happened in nightclubs around the world. So why are nightclubs such a risky place for deadly fires?
A long history of nightclub fires
A look at past nightclub fires shows just how common and deadly they’ve been in the past 100 years. We identified at least 24 nightclub fires where ten or more people died since 1940.
Collectively, these 24 incidents account for at least 2,800 deaths, with nearly 1,300 in the 21st century alone.
Now, North Macedonia’s Pulse nightclub joins this long list.
Why are nightclubs so risky for fires?
A review of past nightclub fires we’ve collated in our database reveals common patterns. Two key factors have contributed to the frequency and severity of these fire disasters.
1. Pyrotechnics, fireworks and flammable materials
One of the most common causes of nightclub fires has been the use of pyrotechnics in enclosed spaces. Pyrotechnics are controlled chemical reactions designed to produce flames, smoke, or light effects.
They have been involved in at least six of the deadliest nightclub fires, including the recent Pulse nightclub fire in North Macedonia, as well as The Station (United States, 2003), Kiss (Brazil, 2013), Colectiv (Romania, 2015), Lame Horse (Russia, 2009) and República Cromañón (Argentina, 2004).
In some cases, fireworks – which are different from stage pyrotechnics and sometimes illegally used indoors – have played a role. The Lame Horse nightclub fire, which killed 156 people in Russia in 2009, was caused by a spark from fireworks igniting a low ceiling covered in flammable plastic decorations.
Foam insulation, wooden panelling, plastic decorations and carpeted walls have all been key factors in past nightclub fires. In Cocoanut Grove (Boston, 1942), artificial palm trees and other flammable decorations accelerated the blaze.
2. Overcrowding and blocked or insufficient exits
Evacuation failures have been a factor in nearly every major nightclub fire.
In some instances, crowds may not immediately recognise the severity of the situation, especially if they mistake alarms for false alarms or special effects (for example, smoke machines, loud music).
Further, patrons could be intoxicated due alcohol or other drugs. Intoxication combined with potential disorientation due to dim lighting can further reduce judgement during an evacuation.
Clearly, the best way to protect patrons is to prevent a fire from breaking out in the first place. But in settings where fire risks are inherently high, the ability to evacuate people swiftly is crucial.
Nightclubs are among the most crowded indoor spaces. While crowd density is part of a nightclub’s design and atmosphere, overcrowding beyond legal capacity is common.
A crowd that has gradually gathered over several hours must suddenly evacuate in seconds or minutes to survive a fire. This is made more difficult by narrow hallways and limited exits, which quickly become bottlenecks when hundreds of people attempt to escape at once.
What’s more, not all exits are always accessible during a fire. In several past nightclub disasters, locked or obstructed emergency exits have significantly worsened the death toll.
Minimising the risks
Nightclubs are uniquely vulnerable to fires due to a combination of structural risks, unsafe materials, overcrowding and regulatory failures.
While human behaviour plays a role in how fires unfold in confined spaces such as nightclubs, people should be able to go for a night out and expect to come home safely.
Regulatory oversight must ensure strict compliance with fire codes. Venues should have fire suppression systems (such as sprinklers, fire extinguishers and smoke detectors) to control or contain fires before they spread, and adequate exits.
Nightclubs should ban indoor pyrotechnics and fireworks, as history has repeatedly shown their deadly consequences.
Capacity limits must be enforced, and emergency exits should always be accessible.
Public awareness is also key. Patrons need to understand the real risk of fires in nightclubs, and be prepared to evacuate swiftly but calmly if danger arises.
Ruggiero Lovreglio receives funding from Royal Society Te Apārangi (NZ) and National Institute of Standards and Technology (USA).
Milad Haghani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Mekong Delta The Mekong Delta in Viet Nam has high agriculture productivity. The area is highly suitable for year-round rice cultivation, moderate to high suitability for watermelon, and seasonal suitability for maize. While its climatic and geographical conditions support year-round cropping, it faces considerable climate vulnerability.
Adaptive capacity also varies significantly in the area due to social and economic challenges (Figure 2). Regions, such as Can Tho and Kien Giang, have relatively high capacity due to good literacy rates, infrastructure, market access, and low poverty. In contrast, much of the Mekong Delta exhibits low to medium capacity due to physical, human, and economic limitations and high exposure to climate risks. This combination creates vulnerability hotspots in northern Long An, coastal Bac Lieu, and large parts of Kien Giang and Ca Mau.
Figure 2. Vulnerability Map of Mekong River Delta, Viet Nam
Integration of adaptive capacity, climate hazard, and sensitivity analysis of rice for wet and dry seasons. Source: K. Nelson et al. Forthcoming. Spatial Analysis and Cost-Benefit Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation in Rice-Based Agrifood Systems of Select Asian Mega Deltas. IRRI and ADB.
Crop diversification can improve income and nutrition. For example, combining rice with cash crops like watermelon generates one to two times the annual net income of double or triple rice cropping. In coastal zones, rice-shrimp integration yields nearly 50% more profit than traditional rice models, while rice-vegetable systems outperform triple rice. However, weak value chains, underinvestment in technology and logistics, climate-induced threats like pests and diseases, and competition for water resources between agriculture and aquaculture hinder the development and sustainability of mixed systems. The growing global shrimp market presents a significant opportunity to expand the shrimp sector.
The situation is Cambodia is more precarious due to higher risks and lower adaptive capacity. Floods and droughts are more frequent, amplifying climate-related challenges. About half of the region, particularly in northern Kandal, Prey Veng, and Svay Rieng, has medium to high adaptive capacity, supported by stronger economic, human, and physical resources. However, areas like the southern districts of these provinces and Takeo are lagging behind. As a result, crop production in the northern and central parts of the delta is highly vulnerable due to low adaptive capacity and high-risk exposure.
Diversifying through rice-watermelon and rice-fish systems can generate approximately three times the annual net revenue per hectare compared to single or double rice cropping. Despite this potential, Cambodia’s low to medium product quality limits its export competitiveness against neighboring countries like Viet Nam and Thailand. While there is growing domestic and export demand for watermelon, realizing its potential requires investment in transport, storage, and post-processing infrastructure. The aquaculture sector, which is currently underdeveloped and mainly reliant on captured fisheries, also requires significant investment.
Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta The Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta in Bangladesh shows significant regional disparities in adaptive capacity. Figure 3 shows how this worsens vulnerability to climate risks such as drought, flood, and heat stress.
Figure 3. Vulnerability Map of Ganges Delta, Bangladesh
Integration of adaptive capacity and climate hazard and change in the suitability of rice for Boro, Aus, and Aman. Source: K. Nelson et al. Forthcoming. Spatial Analysis and Cost-Benefit Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation in Rice-Based Agrifood Systems of Select Asian Mega Deltas. IRRI and ADB.
The delta is highly suitable for crop production, particularly rice, with varying suitability for irrigated and rainfed varieties. Watermelon and maize also demonstrate good potential across the region.
However, the ability to adapt to the climate challenges is uneven. Areas with low adaptive capacity struggle due to physical, economic, and human capital deficits, as illustrated in Figure 3. This vulnerability is more pronounced in the eastern areas where serious climate problems and low adaptation capacity pose considerable risks. The central, northern, and southwestern areas also experience varying levels of vulnerability.
To enhance resilience, diversification is a promising strategy. Cost-benefit analyses show that combining rice with cash crops like watermelon, sunflower, and vegetables or integrating rice-fish farming can substantially increase incomes. For example, rice-based systems that include sunflower or watermelon can double annual income compared to traditional single-rice cropping. Similarly, higher-value aquaculture and vegetable production can yield more than 50% net revenue.
Despite these opportunities, Bangladesh remains a net importer of rice, hindered by outdated processing technologies that lead to low-quality output and, in some cases, negative returns for farmers. While the aquaculture sector has been expanding to meet domestic and international demand, it faces challenges such as difficult production conditions and stringent quality and safety standards in export markets. The fruit and vegetable sectors also remain underdeveloped and fall short of international standards.
Issued for MURRAY BRIDGE NORTH near Murray Bridge in the Murraylands.
The CFS is currently responding to a haystack fire on Wilkin Road, Murray Bridge North. Machinery is being used to dismantle the haystack to help extinguish the fire. This process may generate smoke, which could be visible from Mannum Road. .
Press Release Nokia strengthens Worldstream’s hosting security with advanced DDoS Protection in the Netherlands
Enterprise customers using hosting services will benefit from fast network-based mitigation of most complex and high-volume cyberattacks and AI-driven threats.
Real-time, automated, next-generation DDoS protection to keep businesses running and unaffected during an attack.
Enhanced network resilience with Nokia Deepfield Defender and 7750 SR routers.
17 March 2025 Espoo, Finland – Nokia today announced that Worldstream, a leading cloud infrastructure provider, will use Nokia’s network security technology to protect businesses in the Netherlands and globally against large-scale DDoS attacks. Nokia Deepfield Defender and 7750 SR routers have been deployed across Worldstream’s network to offer an eightfold increase in DDoS mitigation capacity. With this network security upgrade, Worldstream customers can now rely on fast network-based mitigation of even the most complex and high-volume cyberattacks and AI-driven threats.
“Cybercrime is evolving, and with the rise of AI in particular, security solutions need to evolve faster than ever before. We see that for hosting providers, traditional DDoS mitigation methods are no longer sufficient. With the Nokia Deepfield solution, Worldstream is now equipped with high-capacity, network-based protection that reacts instantly, rapidly detecting and eliminating threats before they impact businesses,” commented Matthieu Bourguignon, Senior Vice President for Network Infrastructure, Europe at Nokia.
Prior to the deployment, Worldstream was limited in its defense against large-scale carpet-bombing attacks – which target multiple IP addresses – that could disrupt entire customer networks. With Nokia Deepfield Defender and 7750 SR routers, Worldstream now provides real-time, automated, next-generation DDoS protection that scales with the network, ensuring that businesses stay unaffected and without costly traffic diversion or latency introduced by legacy protection.
“Security has become just as critical as performance in hosting services. Businesses expect resilience, and they need to trust that their infrastructure won’t be taken down by a single attack. With Nokia DDoS technology, we’ve made a major leap in protection. Our customers now benefit from ultra-fast mitigation, ensuring that their digital services remain available no matter what’s thrown at them,” said Ruben van der Zwan, CEO of Worldstream.
Nokia Deepfield Defender, combined with the 7750 SR routers, ensures that Worldstream’s hosting customers benefit from real-time threat detection and mitigation in seconds. The solution offers line-rate protection across all peering interfaces, eliminating restrictions associated with single-server DDoS mitigation. Ultra-fast DDoS also provides protection for all DDoS types, including complex TCP-based application floods and botnet and proxy-based attack types, defending several customers against large-scale attacks at once.
About Nokia At Nokia, we create technology that helps the world act together.
As a B2B technology innovation leader, we are pioneering networks that sense, think and act by leveraging our work across mobile, fixed and cloud networks. In addition, we create value with intellectual property and long-term research, led by the award-winning Nokia Bell Labs, which is celebrating 100 years of innovation.
With truly open architectures that seamlessly integrate into any ecosystem, our high-performance networks create new opportunities for monetization and scale. Service providers, enterprises and partners worldwide trust Nokia to deliver secure, reliable and sustainable networks today – and work with us to create the digital services and applications of the future.
About Worldstream Founded in 2006 by childhood friends who shared a passion for gaming, Worldstream has evolved into an international cloud infrastructure provider. Since its founding, its mission has been to keep basic infrastructure predictable and transparent.
It offers affordable cloud infrastructure, with transparent and predictable pricing, to help IT business leaders confidently grow their IT maturity. Through its commitment to high-quality infrastructure, down-to-earth support, and straightforward pricing models, it empowers IT leaders with the ability to regain control over the security and costs of their digital workloads.
A second man has died from Japanese encephalitis virus in New South Wales on March 6, the state’s health authorities confirmed on Friday. Aged in his 70s, the man was infected while holidaying in the Murrumbidgee region.
This follows the death of another man in his 70s in Sydney last month, after holidaying in the same region in January.
Japanese encephalitis is one of the most serious diseases that spreads via mosquitoes, with around 68,000 cases annually across Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions.
The virus is thought to be maintained in a cycle between mosquitoes and waterbirds. Mosquitoes are infected when they feed from an infected waterbird. They then pass the virus to other waterbirds. Sometimes other animals, and people, can be infected.
Pigs are also a host, and the virus has spread through commercial piggeries in Victoria, NSW and Queensland. (But it poses no food safety risk.)
People with mild cases may have a fever, headache and vomiting.
In more serious cases – about one in 250 people infected – people may have neck stiffness, disorientation, drowsiness and seizures. Serious illness can have life-long neurological complications and, in some cases, the infection can be life-threatening.
There had been no evidence of activity on the mainland since 2004 but everything changed in the summer of 2021–22. Japanese encephalitis virus was detected in commercial piggeries in southeastern Australia during that summer.
This prompted the declaration of a Communicable Disease Incident of National Significance. At the time, flooding accompanying the La Niña-dominated weather patterns and a resulting boom in mosquito numbers, and waterbird populations, was thought responsible.
The virus has spread in subsequent years and has been detected in the mosquito and arbovirus surveillance programs as well as detection in feral pigs and commercial piggeries in most states and territories. Only Tasmania has remained free of Japanese encephalitis virus.
Human cases of infection have also been reported. There were more than 50 cases of disease and seven deaths in 2022.
Due to concern about Japanese encephalitis virus and other mosquito-borne pathogens, health authorities around Australia have expanded and enhanced their surveillance programs.
In Queensland, this includes mosquito monitoring at a number of locations, including urban areas of southeast Queensland. Mosquitoes collected in this monitoring program tested positive for Japanese encephalitis virus, promoting the current health warnings.
Why is its detection in Brisbane important?
Up to now, scientists have thought the risk of Japanese encephalitis was likely greatest following seasons of above-average rainfall or flooding. This provides ideal conditions for waterbirds and mosquitoes.
But the activity of Japanese encephalitis virus over the summer of 2024–25 has taken many scientists by surprise. Before Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred arrived, there had been somewhat dry conditions with less waterbird activity and low mosquito numbers in many regions of eastern Australia.
However there has still been widespread Japanese encephalitis virus activity in Victoria, NSW and Queensland.
To date, Japanese encephalitis virus activity hasn’t extended to the coastal regions of southeast Queensland. The detection of the virus in suburban Brisbane may require authorities to rethink exactly where the virus may turn up next. Authorities are ramping up their surveillance to see just how widespread the virus is in the region.
Health authorities and scientists are also trying to understand how the virus moved from western areas of the state to the coast and what drives virus transmission in different regions.
There is currently no evidence the virus is active in coastal regions of northern NSW.
Mosquitoes collected in Brisbane have tested positive for Japanese encephalitis virus. A/Prof Cameron Webb (NSW Health Pathology)
What can people do to protect themselves?
Avoiding mosquito bites is the best way to reduce the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus.
Cover up with long-sleeved shirts and long pants for a physical barrier against mosquito bites.
Use topical insect repellents containing DEET, picaridin, or oil of lemon eucalyptus. Be sure to apply an even coat on all exposed areas of skin for the longest-lasting protection.
Ensure any insect screens on houses, tents and caravans are in good repair and reduce the amount of standing water in the backyard. The more water there is around your home, the more opportunities for mosquitoes there are.
It may take many weeks following vaccination to achieve sufficient protection, so prioritise reducing your exposure to bites in the meantime.
Cameron Webb and the Department of Medical Entomology, NSW Health Pathology and University of Sydney, have been engaged by a wide range of insect repellent and insecticide manufacturers to provide testing of products and provide expert advice on medically important arthropods, including mosquitoes. Cameron has also received funding from local, state and federal agencies to undertake research into various aspects of management of various medically important arthropods.
Andrew van den Hurk has received funding from local, state and federal agencies to study the ecology of mosquito-borne pathogens, and their surveillance and control. He is an employee of the Department of Health, Queensland government.
Firefighters battled challenging conditions and difficult terrain to bring a fast-moving bushfire under control in Montrose over the weekend.
The fire, which started next to the Dr Ken Leversha Reserve on Saturday afternoon, was fanned by unpredictable gusty winds overnight on Sunday, causing it to quickly spread to the Dr Ken Leversha Reserve and double in size, prompting an emergency warning to be issued for residents.
The strong and sudden wind change, described as a downburst, resulted in an ember attack in multiple directions.
CFA District 13 Assistant Chief Fire Officer Dave Renkin said strike teams faced very difficult conditions.
“The area was inaccessible for vehicles, so we heavily relied on aircraft support.
“At the height of the incident, over 40 firefighting resources were on scene.”
“Fortunately, the winds died down enough for us to gain control on Sunday,” Dave said.
“This aided with a welcome dose of heavy rainfall certainly assisted ground crews with suppression efforts.”
At the height of the incident, over 100 firefighters from CFA, Forest Fire Management Victoria and Fire Rescue Victoria were on scene, alongside more than 40 firefighting vehicles, four helicopters and three dozers.
“There’s no doubt that without the extraordinary efforts of strike teams, the losses would have been far greater.”
“I want to thank all emergency responders for their efforts.
Their swift and coordinated actions were pivotal in limiting the extent of losses,” Dave said.
“It was a great effort all around to achieve a relatively successful outcome.”
There is still a strong presence of emergency services workers at the fireground, performing hazardous tree removal works and monitoring conditions to ensure the safety of the area.
Victoria Police confirmed one property was lost, another partially damaged, and one outbuilding destroyed.
The cause of the fire remains under investigation.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Associate Professor & Principal Fellow in Urban Risk & Resilience, The University of Melbourne
A fire at a nightclub in North Macedonia has killed at least 59 people and injured more than 150. The blaze broke out at the Pulse nightclub in Kočani, where around 500 people were attending a concert.
Witnesses reported that pyrotechnics used during the performance ignited the ceiling, causing flames to spread rapidly.
Authorities have arrested 20 people so far, including the club’s manager. Investigations continue. The North Macedonian government has declared a seven-day mourning period.
While building fires are not limited to nightclubs, many of the most devastating building fires in history have happened in nightclubs around the world. So why are nightclubs such a risky place for deadly fires?
A long history of nightclub fires
A look at past nightclub fires shows just how common and deadly they’ve been in the past 100 years. We identified at least 24 nightclub fires where ten or more people died since 1940.
Collectively, these 24 incidents account for at least 2,800 deaths, with nearly 1,300 in the 21st century alone.
Now, North Macedonia’s Pulse nightclub joins this long list.
Why are nightclubs so risky for fires?
A review of past nightclub fires we’ve collated in our database reveals common patterns. Two key factors have contributed to the frequency and severity of these fire disasters.
1. Pyrotechnics, fireworks and flammable materials
One of the most common causes of nightclub fires has been the use of pyrotechnics in enclosed spaces. Pyrotechnics are controlled chemical reactions designed to produce flames, smoke, or light effects.
They have been involved in at least six of the deadliest nightclub fires, including the recent Pulse nightclub fire in North Macedonia, as well as The Station (United States, 2003), Kiss (Brazil, 2013), Colectiv (Romania, 2015), Lame Horse (Russia, 2009) and República Cromañón (Argentina, 2004).
In some cases, fireworks – which are different from stage pyrotechnics and sometimes illegally used indoors – have played a role. The Lame Horse nightclub fire, which killed 156 people in Russia in 2009, was caused by a spark from fireworks igniting a low ceiling covered in flammable plastic decorations.
Foam insulation, wooden panelling, plastic decorations and carpeted walls have all been key factors in past nightclub fires. In Cocoanut Grove (Boston, 1942), artificial palm trees and other flammable decorations accelerated the blaze.
2. Overcrowding and blocked or insufficient exits
Evacuation failures have been a factor in nearly every major nightclub fire.
In some instances, crowds may not immediately recognise the severity of the situation, especially if they mistake alarms for false alarms or special effects (for example, smoke machines, loud music).
Further, patrons could be intoxicated due alcohol or other drugs. Intoxication combined with potential disorientation due to dim lighting can further reduce judgement during an evacuation.
Clearly, the best way to protect patrons is to prevent a fire from breaking out in the first place. But in settings where fire risks are inherently high, the ability to evacuate people swiftly is crucial.
Nightclubs are among the most crowded indoor spaces. While crowd density is part of a nightclub’s design and atmosphere, overcrowding beyond legal capacity is common.
A crowd that has gradually gathered over several hours must suddenly evacuate in seconds or minutes to survive a fire. This is made more difficult by narrow hallways and limited exits, which quickly become bottlenecks when hundreds of people attempt to escape at once.
What’s more, not all exits are always accessible during a fire. In several past nightclub disasters, locked or obstructed emergency exits have significantly worsened the death toll.
Minimising the risks
Nightclubs are uniquely vulnerable to fires due to a combination of structural risks, unsafe materials, overcrowding and regulatory failures.
While human behaviour plays a role in how fires unfold in confined spaces such as nightclubs, people should be able to go for a night out and expect to come home safely.
Regulatory oversight must ensure strict compliance with fire codes. Venues should have fire suppression systems (such as sprinklers, fire extinguishers and smoke detectors) to control or contain fires before they spread, and adequate exits.
Nightclubs should ban indoor pyrotechnics and fireworks, as history has repeatedly shown their deadly consequences.
Capacity limits must be enforced, and emergency exits should always be accessible.
Public awareness is also key. Patrons need to understand the real risk of fires in nightclubs, and be prepared to evacuate swiftly but calmly if danger arises.
Ruggiero Lovreglio receives funding from Royal Society Te Apārangi (NZ) and National Institute of Standards and Technology (USA).
Milad Haghani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Community wellbeing grants are now available to organisations that provide support to individuals and whānau impacted by the severe weather events of 2023.
The grants, which are funded by the Tāmaki Makaurau Recovery Office, are open for expressions of interest from 17 March until 6 April 2025.
The grants aim to support innovative initiatives that:
foster social connection and collective healing.
provide tools and programmes to help communities manage anxieties about nature and weather while rebuilding trust and connection with te taiao.
address one or more of the key wellbeing needs identified in the Learning Review [247 KB], with clear evidence of community need.
“These grants aim to fund innovative programmes and initiatives that enhance the wellbeing of our communities as they navigate their recovery journeys,” says Linda Greenalgh, Group Community and Social Recovery Lead for the Recovery Office.
“We encourage new and creative approaches that have not been previously implemented, allowing us to evaluate their impact on the community. The more innovative, the better!
“Many communities are still grappling with the long-term impacts of the storms. These grants provide an opportunity to support initiatives that empower people, strengthen connections, and help communities move forward in a way that makes sense for them.”
Check out the guidelines [437 KB] and register your expression of interest.
Weight control in China was once a solitary battle. Now, the government is offering a helping hand. At a recent news conference, Lei Haichao, head of the National Health Commission (NHC), announced plans to establish more weight management clinics at medical and health facilities, helping people shed pounds safely and pivot to healthier lifestyles. The announcement, made on the sidelines of the annual gathering of national lawmakers in Beijing — where the year’s priorities and goals are set — quickly caught fire online. Social media platforms like Weibo and rednote buzzed with reactions to the news. The 2025 government work report, green-lit by lawmakers on March 11, reaffirmed China’s commitment to a health-first strategy in its medical and health system — a clear departure from the traditional emphasis on disease treatment. The public didn’t hold back on the fun. A cheeky hashtag, “The country’s calling you to drop those pounds,” took off, along with a flood of witty cartoons from netizens that lit up the internet. Wang Youfa, head of the Global Health Institute at Xi’an Jiaotong University, saw this as a sign of growing public awareness about the toll of obesity. “It mirrors an alignment of scientific research, government action, and public engagement,” he said, noting this synergy indicates a vibrant wellness boom unfolding across the country. For a nation that had long struggled to feed its vast population, obesity barely registered until the late 1970s, when reform and opening-up ignited an economic boom, as well as a swelling national appetite. Today, with more than 1.4 billion people, China faces a growing obesity challenge. The NHC reported that over half of adults are overweight or obese. It warned that if left unchecked, the rate could climb to 70.5 percent by 2030. An estimate once projected that the economic burden attributed to overweight and obesity would account for 21.5 percent of the country’s total medical expenses by that time. In response, authorities launched a nationwide campaign in June 2024 to foster a supportive environment for weight control within three years. Obesity clinics are a key component of these efforts.
Participants compete during the 2025 Chongqing Marathon in southwest China’s Chongqing Municipality, March 2, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua] Professional aid Weighing 100 kilograms, a Beijing resident surnamed Chen became one of the first to benefit from the new weight management clinic at Peking Union Medical College Hospital. On Wednesday, the 104-year-old institution unveiled its joint clinic, staffed by experts in clinical nutrition, endocrinology, and traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). Greeted by clinical nutrition specialist Chen Wei, Chen learned she faced not only obesity but also diabetes and high blood pressure. Chen Wei brought in endocrinology and TCM specialists, and the trio crafted a treatment plan blending TCM medications, acupuncture and Metformin, along with a personalized health management strategy. Highlighting the prominence of traditional medicine in this approach, Wang said that practices such as acupuncture, massage, Qigong and medicinal diets have given China a distinct edge in tackling obesity. At Suzhou Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine in east China’s Jiangsu Province, physician Jiang Yawen has already treated over 100 patients with acupuncture for obesity just two weeks into March. From the perspective of TCM, obesity is linked to the functioning of the liver, spleen and kidneys, said Jiang. Acupuncture can help by enhancing the function of these organs, curbing appetite, and improving nutrient absorption in the stomach and intestines, she added. Jiang has even taken these techniques abroad. As part of a Chinese medical team sent to Malta from 2020 to 2021, she brought her therapy to the Mediterranean country, where it helped relieve locals of obesity and was warmly embraced. While weight control clinics offer professional services, they carry the risk of over-treatment and unintended health or financial consequences, Wang cautioned. “We need to put in place relevant research, assessment, oversight and regulation.”
On the eve of Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio New Zealanders are asking Mr Peters to speak up for Palestine.
In the last few days 1606 people have signed anopen letter to Mr Peterswhich we have sent him this afternoon, New Zealand time.
Open letter requesting government action on the future of Gaza
Kia ora Mr Peters,
The situation in Occupied Gaza has reached another crisis point.
Last Sunday Israel announced it was ending its January ceasefire agreement with Palestinian groups resisting the occupation and was once more imposing a total ban on humanitarian aid entering Gaza.
Israel says this is because it wants to extend the first phase of the ceasefire agreement rather than negotiate phase two which would see the agreed withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. The renewed blockade on food, water, fuel and medical supplies has been widely condemned as a breach of the ceasefire agreement and the use of “starvation as a weapon of war” by Palestinian groups, international aid organisations and many governments. The United Nations Secretary General António Guterres has called for “humanitarian aid to flow back into Gaza immediately”. Israel has refused this request.
Compounding the crisis is US President Donald Trump’s recently declared intention to permanently remove all the Palestinian people of Gaza and send them to other countries such as Egypt and Jordan so Gaza can be rebuilt as a US territory in the Middle East – in his words “the riviera of the Middle East”.
Israel has accepted this US proposal but Palestinians and the vast majority of governments and civil society groups around the world are appalled at the scheme.
To this point our government has not commented on either Israel’s new blockade of humanitarian supplies into Gaza or the US President’s plan for ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian territory.
Back in December 2023, when the government was commenting, the Prime Minister stated “…Israel must respect international humanitarian law. Civilians and civilian infrastructure must be protected…Safe and unimpeded humanitarian access must be increased and sustained.”
None of this has happened in the more than 14 months since.
We are asking our government to speak out once more on behalf of the people of New Zealand to, at the very least, condemn Israel’s use of humanitarian aid as a weapon of war and to call for international humanitarian and human rights law to be applied.
We believe the way forward for peace and security for everyone who calls the Middle East home is for all parties to follow international law and United Nations resolutions so that a lasting peace can be established based on justice and equal rights for everyone in the region.
New Zealand has an internationally respected voice which can make a strong contribution to this end. We are asking the government to use this voice.
As we clean up after Alfred, we’re only just now realising how hard of a punch this cyclone has packed. Financial forecasts are predicting the impacts will amount to more than $1.2 billion.
Craig Zonca:
Yeah, it’s not just fixing the mess it made, it’s the flow on effects that could be felt for some time. The federal Treasurer is Jim Chalmers. Treasurer, good morning to you.
Jim Chalmers:
Good morning, Craig. Good morning, Loretta.
Zonca:
$1.2 billion, that’s quite the economic hit.
Chalmers:
It is a pretty hefty hit. We’ve said all along that our main focus here is obviously the human costs, but there’s going to be a very substantial economic cost as well, and we’ll account for that in the Budget. It’ll be one of the key influences on the Budget.
The best way to think about the economic impact is that around 5 million people were in harm’s way of this cyclone. Almost 2 million homes. I think we lost something like 12 million work hours out of the economy. What Treasury does as we finalise this Budget is it provides its best initial estimates of the economic fallout. So, a hit to our economy of about $1.2 billion, that’s about a quarter of a percentage point off growth. We’re also assessing which of our food growers were impacted, and what does it mean for building costs – because there is a risk as well that there’ll be some impact on inflation.
Zonca:
Well, you stand up next Tuesday, 25th March, with your Budget speech, how does it now change because of Alfred?
Chalmers:
I’m going to provision an extra $1.2 billion in the Budget for the recovery. Australians are there for each other when these difficult natural disasters occur, and the government will be there for them as well, so we will put an extra $1.2 billion in the Budget. That means there’ll be about 13 and a half billion dollars all told, when it comes to budgeting for rebuilding communities.
Remember, it wasn’t that long ago that our friends to the north of here were getting very substantial flooding as well. We’ve had a series of natural disasters. So, there’s about 30 and a half billion in the Budget, but $1.2 billion of that is new money which we’re putting in the Budget to account for the recovery and the rebuild after ex‑tropical Cyclone Alfred.
Zonca:
And is that paid by cuts elsewhere or new borrowings?
Chalmers:
It’s off the bottom line – and the budget overall will have some savings in it. It will have some responsible measures to get the budget in better nick, but it will have some investments as well, including this one. This brings us to an important point, unfortunately at this time of the morning, a bit of a political point, but you’ll hear our political opponents talk about wasteful spending and they talk about hundreds of billions in wasteful spending.
When they say that, remember that part of that figure they use is actually funding for natural disaster recovery. What we’ve been able to do is manage the budget very responsibly. Two surplus budgets for the first time in almost 2 decades, we’ve engineered something like a $200 billion improvement in the budget. And because we’ve done that, because we’ve managed the budget responsibly, we can afford to pay for things which are really important, like rebuilding communities after natural disasters.
Ryan:
On 612 ABC Breakfast, federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers with us for the families who are listening, Treasurer, and who have been hit hard with this. Will that money go towards recovery payments for them? I know there are payments for people affected. How does that all work?
Chalmers:
It is part of it. So, it’s partly rebuilding bridges and footpaths and local infrastructure. I think a lot of people would have seen on the TV the destruction on the Gold Coast, for example, and further out west and in my neck of the woods in Logan and Brisbane and elsewhere. So, part of it is to help the state government and local governments rebuild that local infrastructure. But a significant part of it is these hardship payments as well. Whether it’s the Hardship Assistance Payment or the allowance for people who are put out of work for a substantial period of time, there is a significant cost to that as well.
I’ll actually be standing up with my terrific colleague, Jenny McAllister, who is the responsible Minister in this area. We’ll be saying a bit more about this later today, because what we’re making sure that we’re doing is making sure that people are eligible for these payments, that they can access them as quickly as possible, and the total cost of that will be included in the Budget.
Ryan:
Is this on top of what I think the Prime Minister did announce last week when the storm was happening?
Chalmers:
That was part of it. The Prime Minister was talking about these payments for people who are very substantially impacted. And what the government does, via Jenny McAllister, but also working closely with the states, is we determine the eligible areas for those payments. And so, as the natural disaster evolves, more and more local communities get added to the eligibility for those payments that the Prime Minister was talking about. That always evolves in days after a disaster to make sure that we are making everyone eligible who needs to be eligible, so that they can get the payments they need to get back on their feet.
Zonca:
Just on those payments, Treasurer, has there been any discussion about increasing those? Because I look at the amounts on offer and we’ve seen costs of everything go up substantially over the past decade. I don’t think those hardship payments, those disaster payments have increased in 10 plus years.
Chalmers:
I think we keep them under constant review. If your question is, you know, would people like a little bit more, I think I would understand if they did. We’ve got to be as responsible as we can. But they’re not insignificant amounts of money. In some cases it’s $900 or $1,000 a family, depending on how impacted people are and whether they’re eligible. It is a significant payment for people just to help them get back on their feet. There’s also the income replacement payments for people who are out of work for a substantial period of time.
We keep these totals under constant review. If we can do more, we’ll do more in the future, but it is a relatively significant payment already.
Zonca:
19 past 7 – the federal Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, with you as you talk about those impacts you mentioned on fruit and veggies and so on. Already we have seen substantial increases every time we go to the grocery store or our local greengrocer. What sort of further increases are likely post Cyclone Alfred?
Chalmers:
One of the most encouraging things that’s been happening in our economy is, you know, a couple of years ago when we came to office, inflation was multiples of what it is now, and it was rising quite quickly. What we’ve been able to do together as a country is to make some really encouraging progress on that inflation. And people are still under pressure. I know at the supermarket checkout, people are still feeling the pinch. We don’t pretend otherwise. That’s why our cost‑of‑living help that we’re rolling out is so important. But inflation is coming down.
If you think about food inflation in particular, that was 5.9 per cent when we came to office and now about half that at 3 per cent. And so that gives you a bit of a sense of the progress that we’re making. We’re not complacent about that because people are still under pressure and that’s why that cost‑of‑living help is so important.
Zonca:
Well, you talk up the economic management there, but I think most Australians would probably say they feel like they’re worse off since you started in government, Jim Chalmers?
Chalmers:
I think I acknowledged in the answer a moment ago, Craig, that we know that people are still under the pump. You know, we don’t pretend otherwise. But what matters there is, once you acknowledge that, whether you’re prepared to do something about it. We have been prepared to do something about it, and our opponents voted against that cost‑of‑living help.
We’ve been rolling out tax cuts for every taxpayer, energy bill relief, cheaper medicines, cheaper early childhood education, Fee‑Free TAFE, rent assistance. We’ve been getting wages moving again. And these are all of the ways that we’re not just recognising people are doing it tough, we’re trying to take the edge off these cost‑of‑living pressures where we can in the most responsible way that we can.
Ryan:
Treasurer, it looks like Queensland is tipped to lose a lot of the share of the GST pie. So, the Commonwealth Grants Commission proposing a $5 billion cut to GST revenue. So, we’re potentially looking at $2.4 billion next year alone. Surely this is something that you won’t let happen.
Chalmers:
I think as you rightly kind of intimated in your question, Loretta, this is an arm’s length process. It’s an independent process managed by the Commonwealth Grants Commission. It’s not a decision of the federal government to carve up the GST. That’s done by the Commission. And every year or every time that these relativities are calculated, some states are happy, and some states are less happy. Queensland’s done quite well over recent years from the Commonwealth Grants Commission. And what this new number recognises is the substantial amount, extra amount that Queensland is getting in coal royalties. And so, this calculation is not done by the government. I know it’s not unusual for state governments to want more money from the federal government. It’s not unusual for states to blame the feds for pressures on their budget. But this is not a process that’s done by politicians in the Commonwealth government. It’s done by this independent organisation.
Ryan:
Are you disappointed, though?
Chalmers:
I think over time it all works out. You know, for example, the last time this was done, NSW was unhappy. This time it’s Queensland. But over time, if you look at this over a period of time, it generally smooths out. On this occasion, it recognises that Queensland’s doing well or expected to do really well out of coal royalties. On other occasions, Queensland’s done incredibly well. Over a period of time, not just from year to year or update to update, it generally smooths out. From time to time, states are unhappy. Obviously, I care about that. As a Queenslander, I have a respectful working relationship with the Queensland government. I have a respectful relationship with governments of both political persuasions around Australia. It’s not unusual for them to want more and that’s what we’re seeing here.
Ryan:
But we need more because of the Olympics, don’t we?
Chalmers:
We’re kicking billions of dollars in for the Olympics. I think that’s a really important point. We’re providing $3.5 billion as a Commonwealth government for the Olympics. We haven’t been shy about that. We haven’t been pinching pennies when it comes to our commitment there. We think the Olympics are going to be terrific. We want to work closely with the state government to deliver something that we can be proud of and our $3.5 billion is part of that effort.
Zonca:
So, giving us $3.5 billion for Olympic infrastructure but taking $5 billion in GST revenue, that still leaves us $1.5 billion down overall.
Chalmers:
No, because there’s a big recovery in coal royalties, as I keep pointing out. Secondly, you need to look at these calculations by the Independent Commission at arm’s length from us over a period of time and not just from update to update. Queensland’s done well over the years. I know that people are not happy about this one. I do genuinely understand that you do genuinely care about that. But you need to look at it over a period of time, not just from one update to the next.
Zonca:
I appreciate your time this morning, Treasurer. Thanks so much.
Some have said Christopher Luxon’s pledge to get a free trade deal between New Zealand and India over the line in his first term as prime minister was overly optimistic. But not all trade deals are the same, and Luxon may yet get to claim bragging rights.
Already he is managing expectations, saying a “good” deal will be better than waiting a long time for a “perfect” one. And with formal negotiations confirmed not long after Luxon touched down in New Delhi, we can perhaps expect genuine movement.
At the same time, India’s negotiating style is notoriously rigid, with its bilateral investment treaty model having proved a stumbling block to deals with many other nations or blocs, including the United Kingdom and European Union.
New Zealand first held formal negotiations with India over a decade ago. But talks derailed in 2015 over the inclusion of dairy products in any agreement. We can be fairly sure this will be the compromise Luxon’s government is ready to make now.
Beyond the economic implications, of course, lie domestic political calculations. Luxon needs a win to counter flatlining poll numbers and speculation about his leadership future. Good news in India offers just that.
Playing the Indo-Pacific card
Using diplomatic language that plays up New Zealand being part of the Indo-Pacific region – rather than the traditional Western alliance – will be essential.
New Zealand – despite its relatively small size – is still a significant regional player, with the Indo-Pacific’s fourth highest GDP per capita.
In the context of an imminent “Asian Century”, and the region becoming a crucial zone for economic and military power, New Zealand also provides a strategic pathway into the Pacific, where India is becoming increasingly involved.
All of this will influence Luxon’s keynote address today at the 10th Raisina Dialogue, India’s flagship multilateral conference on global politics and economics. He is the first leader not governing a European country to make such a speech, and is also the chief guest at the dialogue.
Luxon is already on the record as saying New Zealand and India are “very aligned” on Indo-Pacific security and concerns over Chinese regional influence, with scope for more joint defence exercises. This linkage between security and trade mirrors Wellington’s recent relations with Beijing, which have become increasingly difficult to navigate.
Solid foundations
But there is a long way to go. In 2024, India-New Zealand trade was worth a combined NZ$3.14 billion – a fraction of the $208.46 billion generated by trade with China in the same year.
Nevertheless, Luxon and his ministers have made undeniable progress. His “recalibration of a relationship that has long been neglected” bore fruit in October last year when he met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the ASEAN summit, and the countries announced their intention to take the relationship to “greater heights”.
The previous Labour government helped set the scene with a succession of high-level diplomatic visits and parliamentary exchanges. In 2023, the Indian government described relations with New Zealand as having “an upward trajectory”.
And there are clearly good foundations to build on – especially the 292,000 people of Indian ethnicity in New Zealand, who contribute US$10 billion to the New Zealand economy.
Great expectations
Trade is ripe for expansion, too. New Zealand primarily exports wool, iron and steel, aluminium, fruits and nuts, wood pulp and recovered paper, and imports Indian pharmaceuticals, machinery, precious metals and stones, textiles, vehicles and clothing.
There were 8,000 Indian students in New Zealand last year, a number that may well grow given a relative drop in student numbers from China. With the US and UK becoming more hostile to immigration, New Zealand can offer a relatively safe and tolerant alternative.
As such, while Luxon has momentum on a trade deal, he is also part of a long queue. Given the relative power imbalance between the two countries, the weight of expectation sits squarely on his shoulders.
Chris Ogden is a Senior Research Fellow with The Foreign Policy Centre, London.
Covering period of Monday 17 – Thursday 20 March – A mosaic of Severe Weather Warnings and Watches cover the South Island, highlighting strong winds and heavy rain travelling up the South Island over today and tomorrow (Tuesday). Strong, warm northwesterly winds precede the band of rain, while cool southerly winds follow close behind.
Heavy Rain Warnings have been issued for the Westland District and Fiordland for only the second time this year, as these regions bear the brunt of the incoming rain.
MetService meteorologist Clare O’Connor details, “Up to 200mm of rain is expected in the ranges of Westland, and 100mm for areas nearer to the coast. These areas are well below their usual year to date rainfall totals, and surface flooding, slips, and adverse driving conditions are worth looking out for.”
A Heavy Rain Watch has also been issued for the Southland Region, including Stewart Island, with periods of heavy rain expected to affect the west of that region from Monday afternoon.
In the east of the South Island, temperatures are being pushed as high as 30°C as gusty northwesterly winds travel over the Southern Alps. The expected strength of these winds has resulted in Strong Wind Watches for the Canterbury High Country, Canterbury Plains, and the Otago and Southland Regions, with wind gusts of 100 km/h possible in those areas. An additional Strong Wind Watch covers Wellington from the early hours of Tuesday as the northwesterly winds arrive onto the lower North Island.
O’Connor adds, “These warm northwesterly winds will be quickly replaced by cooler southerlies behind the main band of rain, producing a bit of a rollercoaster in the temperature charts. Cricket fans in Dunedin on Tuesday will need to layer up, with only 15°C expected.”
“This switch in wind flow brings a chance of thunderstorms for the upper South Island and the North Island – excluding the regions in the east. While there are no severe thunderstorm watches in place right now, heavy showers and thunderstorms could be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, so we advise checking in on our thunderstorm outlook.”
The last of the rain clears from the eastern South Island Wednesday morning as the rain moves northwards and high pressure settles over the South Island once again bringing fine weather. Conditions over the North Island are expected to remain showery throughout the week, with the wettest weather moving from west to east later in the week.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday ruled out any territorial concessions to Russia as a potential step towards a ceasefire, the UNIAN news agency reported.
“Our position is that we do not recognize the occupied Ukrainian territories as Russian under any circumstances,” Zelensky told reporters.
He confirmed that potential territorial concessions were discussed during a March 11 meeting between Ukrainian and U.S. delegations in Saudi Arabia.
Zelensky noted that Washington took into account Kiev’s stance on the issue.
He stressed that the territorial issues are “complex” and should be addressed later at the negotiating table.
This photo taken on March 16, 2025 shows the site of a fire at a nightclub in Kocani, North Macedonia. [Photo/Xinhua]
At least 59 people have died, and over 100 others have been hospitalized after a devastating fire broke out on Sunday at a nightclub in Kocani, North Macedonia, local media reported.
Authorities believe the blaze was sparked by pyrotechnic effects that ignited the venue’s flammable ceiling material, causing the flames and thick smoke to spread rapidly. Video footage circulating online shows the ceiling engulfed in fire as people scramble to escape.
Interior Minister Panche Toshkovski confirmed that 18 of the injured are in critical condition. Among those hospitalized is Vladimir Blazevski, a member of the performing hip-hop group DNK, who sustained burns but remains in stable condition.
Police have detained one suspect and issued arrest warrants for four others, including the club’s owner. Investigators are focusing on possible safety violations and negligence.
The North Macedonian government has pledged a thorough investigation to prevent similar disasters in the future. Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski canceled his planned trip to Montenegro and traveled to Kocani to oversee emergency efforts. Justice Minister Igor Filkov has called for accountability, stressing that such a tragedy must never happen again.
European Union Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos also extended her condolences to the victims and their families.
U.S. warplanes launched extensive airstrikes across northern Yemen on Saturday night, targeting multiple Houthi-controlled locations in a large-scale operation. According to Houthi estimates on Sunday, the bombardment resulted in at least 31 deaths and 101 injuries.
Widespread military campaign
American fighter jets carried out approximately 40 airstrikes targeting multiple locations across six Houthi-controlled governorates in northern Yemen. The coordinated assault struck sites in the capital Sanaa as well as Dhamar, Al-Bayda, Marib, Hajjah, and Saada provinces, according to the Houthi-affiliated al-Masirah TV.
In Sanaa, the strikes focused on strategic military installations including the Jabal Attan area housing missile brigade headquarters, the Jarban area in Sanhan district east of the capital, and Al-Jarraf residential neighborhood in the north, which reportedly contains significant Houthi political offices.
The bombing campaign extended to critical civil infrastructure in Saada province, the Houthi main stronghold in Yemen’s far north, where the U.S. warplanes targeted a key power plant in Dahyan area.
Additional targets included sites in Marib’s oil-rich Majzar district, areas in central Al-Bayda province, positions in the outskirts of Dhamar province and military sites in Hajjah province.
The U.S. Central Command publicly announced the large-scale operation against “Iranian-backed Houthi targets” via social media, stating the mission aims to “defend American interests, deter enemies, and restore freedom of navigation.”
This is the first military operation conducted by the U.S. military against the Houthi sites since U.S. President Donald Trump assumed office in January and redesignated the group as a “foreign terrorist organization.”
Trump posted on social media Truth Social that the aerial attacks on the “terrorists’ bases, leaders, and missile defenses were to protect American shipping, air and naval assets, and to restore navigational freedom.”
He also warned the Houthis that if they do not stop their attacks “starting today … hell will rain down upon you like nothing you have ever seen before.”
Civilian impact & casualties
The strikes on residential areas, particularly in Sanaa’s Al-Jarraf neighborhood, caused widespread panic among civilians. One resident, speaking under the pseudonym Ahmed Hayani, described the terrifying experience to Xinhua: “I was at home with my children when suddenly we heard a huge explosion and the glass of the house’s windows fell on us, as if an earthquake had struck.”
He recounted four massive explosions that followed within minutes as missiles struck a building in the neighborhood. Security forces quickly cordoned off streets leading to the targeted structure while ambulances rushed to retrieve victims. The resident noted significant damage to nearby homes and the traumatic night experienced by all neighborhood inhabitants.
Following Saturday’s night bombardment, witnesses reported that huge explosions continued on early Sunday in Faj Attan, generating powerful shockwaves that affected scores of businesses in neighboring areas and shattering storefront windows. Ambulances were seen rushing to the targeted neighborhoods following the attacks.
The Houthi-controlled Ministry of Health in Sanaa reported this morning that most casualties were women and children, describing the attacks as “a full-fledged war crime.”
Houthi response & regional implications
In response to the U.S. strikes, the Houthi Supreme Political Council — the group’s highest governing authority — vowed a “painful” retaliation, framing the American attacks as support for Israel and warning they would “drag the situation to a more severe and painful level.”
In a statement, the council said “the aggressors against Yemen will be punished in a professional and painful manner,” while calling on the international community to address what it termed “U.S.-Israeli recklessness.”
The Houthi leadership also confirmed that its naval operations would continue until the blockade on Gaza is lifted, and humanitarian aid is permitted entry.
Fatima Asrar, research director at the Washington Center for Yemeni Studies, told Xinhua that the Houthis are unlikely to be deterred by these strikes.
“The Houthis have a known pattern of escalation, and they will not yield to deterrence,” she explained, predicting the group may target Israel directly “to justify their position of weakness and frame it as support for the Palestinians so that they can garner sympathy.”
The renewed conflict comes after Israel halted the entry of goods and supplies into Gaza on March 2, coinciding with the end of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement.
On Tuesday, the Houthi group announced that it would resume launching attacks against any Israeli ship in the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Bab al-Mandab Strait until the crossings of Gaza Strip are reopened and aid allowed in.
From November 2023 to Jan. 19, the Houthi group launched dozens of drone and rocket attacks against Israel-linked ships and Israeli cities to show solidarity with Palestinians amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. The attacks later expanded to include U.S. and British ships after the U.S.-British navy coalition started to intervene, launching air raids and missile strikes against Houthi targets to deter the group.
The Houthis stopped their attacks on Jan. 19, when the Gaza ceasefire deal took effect.
The Houthi group has maintained control of Sanaa and most of northern Yemen for more than a decade with strong ties to Iran.
Yemen’s Houthi group said it launched a retaliatory attack against the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier in the Red Sea on Sunday in response to dozens of U.S. airstrikes on its positions.
“The American enemy launched a blatant aggression against our country with more than 47 air raids targeting Sanaa and seven other governorates,” Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Sarea said in a televised statement aired by Houthi-run al-Masirah TV.
“In response to the aggression, we carried out a military operation, targeting USS Harry S. Truman and its escorts with a drone and 18 ballistic and cruise missiles,” Sarea stated.
The Houthi attack came after the Houthi Supreme Political Council — the group’s highest governing authority — vowed a “painful” retaliation, framing the American attacks as support for Israel and warning they would “drag the situation to a more severe and painful level.”
The spokesperson also confirmed that his group would “continue to impose a naval blockade on the Israeli enemy” in its area of operations, including the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, until the entry of aid into Gaza is permitted.
U.S. warplanes launched extensive airstrikes across northern Yemen on Saturday night, targeting multiple Houthi-controlled locations. According to the latest Houthi estimates on Sunday, the bombardment resulted in at least 53 deaths and 98 injuries.
This is the first U.S. military operation against the Houthi group since U.S. President Donald Trump assumed power in January and redesignated the group as a “foreign terrorist organization.”
Trump warned on the social media platform Truth Social on Saturday that if the Houthis do not stop their attacks on the Red Sea shipping, “hell will rain down upon you like nothing you have ever seen before,” claiming the U.S. aerial attacks on the “terrorists’ bases, leaders, and missile defenses were to protect American shipping, air, and naval assets, and to restore navigational freedom.”
The U.S. Central Command said earlier on X platform that the airstrikes were launched from a U.S. aircraft carrier north of the Red Sea.
The U.S. airstrikes came days after the Houthi group announced on Tuesday that it would resume launching attacks against Israeli-linked shipping until the crossings of the Gaza Strip are reopened and aid allowed in.
From November 2023 to Jan. 19 this year, the Houthi group, which currently controls much of northern Yemen, including the capital Sanaa, launched dozens of attacks against Israel-linked ships and Israeli cities to show solidarity with Palestinians who are engulfed in a prolonged conflict with Israel.
The attacks later expanded to include U.S. and British ships after the U.S.-British navy coalition started to intervene and launch strikes against Houthi targets to deter the group.
The Houthis stopped their attacks on Jan. 19, when a Gaza ceasefire deal took effect.
SPECIAL REPORT:By Peter Cronau for Declassified Australia
Australia is caught in a jam, between an assertive American ally and a bold Chinese trading partner. America is accelerating its pivot to the Indo-Pacific, building up its fighting forces and expanding its military bases.
As Australia tries to navigate a pathway between America’s and Australia’s national interests, sometimes Australia’s national interest seems to submerge out of view.
Admiral David Johnston, the Chief of the Australia’s Defence Force, is steering this ship as China flexes its muscle sending a small warship flotilla south to circumnavigate the continent.
He has admitted that the first the Defence Force heard of a live-fire exercise by the three Chinese Navy ships sailing in the South Pacific east of Australia on February 21, was a phone call from the civilian Airservices Australia.
“The absence of any advance notice to Australian authorities was a concern, notably, that the limited notice provided by the PLA could have unnecessarily increased the risk to aircraft and vessels in the area,” Johnston told Senate Estimates .
Johnston was pressed to clarify how Defence first came to know of the live-fire drill: “Is it the case that Defence was only notified, via Virgin and Airservices Australia, 28 minutes [sic] after the firing window commenced?”
To this, Admiral Johnston replied: “Yes.”
If it happened as stated by the Admiral — that a live-fire exercise by the Chinese ships was undertaken and a warning notice was transmitted from the Chinese ships, all without being detected by Australian defence and surveillance assets — this is a defence failure of considerable significance.
Sources with knowledge of Defence spoken to by Declassified Australia say that this is either a failure of surveillance, or a failure of communication, or even more far-reaching, a failure of US alliance cooperation.
And from the very start the official facts became slippery.
Our latest investigation –
AUSTRALIA’S DEFENCE: NAVIGATING US-CHINA TENSIONS
We investigate a significant intelligence failure to detect live-firing by Chinese warships near Australia, has exposed Defence weaknesses, and the fact that when it counts, we are all alone.
— Declassified Australia (@DeclassifiedAus) March 7, 2025
What did they know and when did they know it The first information passed on to Defence by Airservices Australia came from the pilot of a Virgin passenger jet passing overhead the flotilla in the Tasman Sea that had picked up the Chinese Navy VHF radio notification of an impending live-fire exercise.
The radio transmission had advised the window for the live-fire drill commenced at 9.30am and would conclude at 3pm.
We know this from testimony given to Senate Estimates by the head of Airservices Australia. He said Airservices was notified at 9.58am by an aviation control tower informed by the Virgin pilot. Two minutes later Airservices issued a “hazard alert” to commercial airlines in the area.
The Headquarters of the Defence Force’s Joint Operations Command (HJOC), at Bungendore 30km east of Canberra, was then notified about the drill by Airservices at 10.08am, 38 minutes after the drill window had commenced.
When questioned a few days later, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese appeared to try to cover for Defence’s apparent failure to detect the live-fire drill or the advisory transmission.
“At around the same time, there were two areas of notification. One was from the New Zealand vessels that were tailing . .. the [Chinese] vessels in the area by both sea and air,” Albanese stated. “So that occurred and at the same time through the channels that occur when something like this is occurring, Airservices got notified as well.”
But the New Zealand Defence Force had not notified Defence “at the same time”. In fact it was not until 11.01am that an alert was received by Defence from the New Zealand Defence Force — 53 minutes after Defence HQ was told by Airservices and an hour and a half after the drill window had begun.
The Chinese Navy’s stealth guided missile destroyer Zunyi, sailing south in the Coral Sea on February 15, 2025, in a photograph taken from a RAAF P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane. Image: Royal Australian Air Force/Declassified Australia
Defence Minister Richard Marles later in a round-about way admitted on ABC Radio that it wasn’t the New Zealanders who informed Australia first: “Well, to be clear, we weren’t notified by China. I mean, we became aware of this during the course of the day.
“What China did was put out a notification that it was intending to engage in live firing. By that I mean a broadcast that was picked up by airlines or literally planes that were commercial planes that were flying across the Tasman.”
Later the Chinese Ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, told ABC that two live-fire training drills were carried out at sea on February 21 and 22, in accordance with international law and “after repeatedly issuing safety notices in advance”.
Eyes and ears on ‘every move’ It was expected the Chinese-navy flotilla would end its three week voyage around Australia on March 7, after a circumnavigation of the continent. That is not before finally passing at some distance the newly acquired US-UK nuclear submarine base at HMAS Stirling near Perth and the powerful US communications and surveillance base at North West Cape.
Just as Australia spies on China to develop intelligence and targeting for a potential US war, China responds in kind, collecting data on US military and intelligence bases and facilities in Australia, as future targets should hostilities commence.
The presence of the Chinese Navy ships that headed into the northern and eastern seas around Australia attracted the attention of the Defence Department ever since they first set off south through the Mindoro Strait in the Philippines and through the Indonesian archipelago from the South China Sea on February 3.
“We are keeping a close watch on them and we will be making sure that we watch every move,” Marles stated in the week before the live-fire incident.
“Just as they have a right to be in international waters . . . we have a right to be prudent and to make sure that we are surveilling them, which is what we are doing.”
Around 3500 km to the north, a week into the Chinese ships’ voyage, a spy flight by an RAAF P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane on February 11, in a disputed area of the South China Sea south of China’s Hainan Island, was warned off by a Chinese J-16 fighter jet.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to Australian protests claiming the Australian aircraft “deliberately intruded” into China’s claimed territorial airspace around the Paracel Islands without China’s permission, thereby “infringing on China’s sovereignty and endangering China’s national security”.
Australia criticised the Chinese manoeuvre, defending the Australian flight saying it was “exercising the right to freedom of navigation and overflight in international waters and airspace”.
Two days after the incident, the three Chinese ships on their way to Australian waters were taking different routes in beginning their own “right to freedom of navigation” in international waters off the Australian coast. The three ships formed up their mini flotilla in the Coral Sea as they turned south paralleling the Australian eastern coastline outside of territorial waters, and sometimes within Australia’s 200-nautical-mile (370 km) Exclusive Economic Zone.
“Defence always monitors foreign military activity in proximity to Australia. This includes the Peoples Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) Task Group.” Admiral Johnston told Senate Estimates.
“We have been monitoring the movement of the Task Group through its transit through Southeast Asia and we have observed the Task Group as it has come south through that region.”
The Task Group was made up of a modern stealth guided missile destroyer Zunyi, the frigate Hengyang, and the Weishanhu, a 20,500 tonne supply ship carrying fuel, fresh water, cargo and ammunition. The Hengyang moved eastwards through the Torres Strait, while the Zunyi and Weishanhu passed south near Bougainville and Solomon Islands, meeting in the Coral Sea.
This map indicates the routes taken by the three Chinese Navy ships on their “right to freedom of navigation” voyage in international waters circumnavigating Australia, with dates of way points indicated — from 3 February till 6 March 2025. Distances and locations are approximate. Image: Weibo/Declassified Australia
As the Chinese ships moved near northern Australia and through the Coral Sea heading further south, the Defence Department deployed Navy and Air Force assets to watch over the ships. These included various RAN warships including the frigate HMAS Arunta and a RAAF P-8A Poseidon intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance plane.
With unconfirmed reports a Chinese nuclear submarine may also be accompanying the surface ships, the monitoring may have also included one of the RAN’s Collins-class submarines, with their active range of sonar, radar and radio monitoring – however it is uncertain whether one was able to be made available from the fleet.
“From the point of time the first of the vessels entered into our more immediate region, we have been conducting active surveillance of their activities,” the Defence chief confirmed.
As the Chinese ships moved into the southern Tasman Sea, New Zealand navy ships joined in the monitoring alongside Australia’s Navy and Air Force.
The range of signals intelligence (SIGINT) that theoretically can be intercepted emanating from a naval ship at sea includes encrypted data and voice satellite communications, ship-to-ship communications, aerial drone data and communications, as well as data of radar, gunnery, and weapon launches.
There are a number of surveillance facilities in Australia that would have been able to be directed at the Chinese ships.
Australian Signals Directorate’s (ASD) Shoal Bay Receiving Station outside of Darwin, picks up transmissions and data emanating from radio signals and satellite communications from Australia’s near north region. ASD’s Cocos Islands receiving station in the mid-Indian ocean would have been available too.
The Jindalee Operational Radar Network (JORN) over-the-horizon radar network, spread across northern Australia, is an early warning system that monitors aircraft and ship movements across Australia’s north-western, northern, and north-eastern ocean areas — but its range off the eastern coast is not thought to presently reach further south than the sea off Mackay on the Queensland coast.
Of land-based surveillance facilities, it is the American Pine Gap base that is believed to have the best capability of intercepting the ship’s radio communications in the Tasman Sea.
Enter, Pine Gap and the Americans The US satellite surveillance base at Pine Gap in Central Australia is a US and Australian jointly-run satellite ground station. It is regarded as the most important such American satellite base outside of the USA.
The spy base – Joint Defence Facility Pine Gap (JDFPG) – showing the north-eastern corner of the huge base with some 18 of the base’s now 45 satellite dishes and covered radomes visible. Image: Felicity Ruby/Declassified Australia
The role of ASD in supporting the extensive US surveillance mission against China is increasingly valued by Australia’s large Five Eyes alliance partner.
A Top Secret ‘Information Paper’, titled “NSA Intelligence Relationship with Australia”, leaked from the National Security Agency (NSA) by Edward Snowden and published by ABC’s Background Briefing, spells out the “close collaboration” between the NSA and ASD, in particular on China:
“Increased emphasis on China will not only help ensure the security of Australia, but also synergize with the U.S. in its renewed emphasis on Asia and the Pacific . . . Australia’s overall intelligence effort on China, as a target, is already significant and will increase.”
The Pine Gap base, as further revealed in 2023 by Declassified Australia, is being used to collect signals intelligence and other data from the Israeli battlefield of Gaza, and also Ukraine and other global hotspots within view of the US spy satellites.
It’s recently had a significant expansion (reported by this author in The Saturday Paper) which has seen its total of satellite dishes and radomes rapidly increase in just a few years from 35 to 45 to accommodate new heightened-capability surveillance satellites.
Pine Gap base collects an enormous range and quantity of intelligence and data from thermal imaging satellites, photographic reconnaissance satellites, and signals intelligence (SIGINT) satellites, as expert researchers Des Ball, Bill Robinson and Richard Tanter of the Nautilus Institute have detailed.
These SIGINT satellites intercept electronic communications and signals from ground-based sources, such as radio communications, telemetry, radar signals, satellite communications, microwave emissions, mobile phone signals, and geolocation data.
Alliance priorities The US’s SIGINT satellites have a capability to detect and receive signals from VHF radio transmissions on or near the earth’s surface, but they need to be tasked to do so and appropriately targeted on the source of the transmission.
For the Pine Gap base to intercept VHF radio signals from the Chinese Navy ships, the base would have needed to specifically realign one of those SIGINT satellites to provide coverage of the VHF signals in the Tasman Sea at the time of the Chinese ships’ passage. It is not known publicly if they did this, but they certainly have that capability.
However, it is not only the VHF radio transmission that would have carried information about the live-firing exercise.
Pine Gap would be able to monitor a range of other SIGINT transmissions from the Chinese ships. Details of the planning and preparations for the live-firing exercise would almost certainly have been transmitted over data and voice satellite communications, ship-to-ship communications, and even in the data of radar and gunnery operations.
But it is here that there is another possibility for the failure.
The Pine Gap base was built and exists to serve the national interests of the United States. The tasking of the surveillance satellites in range of Pine Gap base is generally not set by Australia, but is directed by United States’ agencies, the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) together with the US Defense Department, the National Security Agency (NSA), and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
Australia has learnt over time that US priorities may not be the same as Australia’s.
Australian defence and intelligence services can request surveillance tasks to be added to the schedule, and would have been expected to have done so in order to target the southern leg of the Chinese Navy ships’ voyage, when the ships were out of the range of the JORN network.
The military demands for satellite time can be excessive in times of heightened global conflict, as is the case now.
Whether the Pine Gap base was devoting sufficient surveillance resources to monitoring the Chinese Navy ships, due to United States’ priorities in Europe, Russia, the Middle East, Africa, North Korea, and to our north in the South China Sea, is a relevant question.
It can only be answered now by a formal government inquiry into what went on — preferably held in public by a parliamentary committee or separately commissioned inquiry. The sovereign defence of Australia failed in this incident and lessons need to be learned.
Who knew and when did they know If the Pine Gap base had been monitoring the VHF radio band and heard the Chinese Navy live-fire alert, or had been monitoring other SIGINT transmissions to discover the live-fire drill, the normal procedure would be for the active surveillance team to inform a number of levels of senior officers, a former Defence official familiar with the process told Declassified Australia.
Inside an operations room at the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) head office at the Defence complex at Russell Hill in Canberra. Image: ADF/Declassified Australia
Expected to be included in the information chain are the Australian Deputy-Chief of Facility at the US base, NSA liaison staff at the base, the Australian Signals Directorate head office at the Defence complex at Russell Hill in Canberra, the Defence Force’s Headquarters Joint Operations Command, in Bungendore, and the Chief of the Defence Force. From there the Defence Minister’s office would need to have been informed.
As has been reported in media interviews and in testimony to the Senate Estimates hearings, it has been stated that Defence was not informed of the Chinese ships’ live-firing alert until a full 38 minutes after the drill window had commenced.
The former Defence official told Declassified Australia it is vital the reason for the failure to detect the live-firing in a timely fashion is ascertained.
Either the Australian Defence Force and US Pine Gap base were not effectively actively monitoring the Chinese flotilla at this time — and the reasons for that need to be examined — or they were, but the information gathered was somewhere stalled and not passed on to correct channels.
If the evidence so far tendered by the Defence chief and the Minister is true, and it was not informed of the drill by any of its intelligence or surveillance assets before that phone call from Airservices Australia, the implications need to be seriously addressed.
A final word In just a couple of weeks the whole Defence environment for Australia has changed, for the worse.
The US military announces a drawdown in Europe and a new pivot to the Indo-Pacific. China shows Australia it can do tit-for-tat “navigational freedom” voyages close to the Australian coast. US intelligence support is withdrawn from Ukraine during the war. Australia discovers the AUKUS submarines’ arrival looks even more remote. The prime minister confuses the limited cover provided by the ANZUS treaty.
Meanwhile, the US militarisation of Australia’s north continues at pace. At the same time a senior Pentagon official pressures Australia to massively increase defence spending. And now, the country’s defence intelligence system has experienced an unexplained major failure.
Australia, it seems, is adrift in a sea of unpredictable global events and changing alliance priorities.
Peter Cronau is an award-winning, investigative journalist, writer, and film-maker. His documentary, The Base: Pine Gap’s Role in US Warfighting, was broadcast on Australian ABC Radio National and featured on ABC News. He produced and directed the documentary film Drawing the Line, revealing details of Australian spying in East Timor, on ABC TV’s premier investigative programme Four Corners. He won the Gold Walkley Award in 2007 for a report he produced on an outbreak of political violence in East Timor. This article was first published by Declassified Australia and is republished here with the author’s permission.
Man charged with trafficking following vehicle search
Monday, 17 March 2025 – 10:39 am.
A man has been charged with trafficking after police seized quantities of methamphetamine and MDMA during a vehicle search on Friday evening. Police from Central North intercepted the vehicle on Mole Creek Road just before 7.30pm, locating and seizing the drugs as well as ammunition and a stolen firearm part. During a subsequent search of a private residence at Gravelly Beach, members of Central North, Northern Criminal Investigation Division and Launceston Uniform located and seized further quantities of MDMA, further ammunition, and two firearm silencers. A 26-year-old Gravelly Beach man was arrested and charged with trafficking, firearms offences and minor drug offences. He will appear in the Launceston Magistrates Court in May.
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL6
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 56 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 740 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southern Virginia
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 740 PM until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include… A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY…Scattered severe thunderstorms will move northeast across the watch area this evening, with a risk for a couple tornadoes, damaging gusts, and isolated large hail.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Richmond VA to 20 miles east southeast of Fayetteville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23035.
…Bunting
SEL6
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 56 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 740 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southern Virginia
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 740 PM until 100 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include… A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY…Scattered severe thunderstorms will move northeast across the watch area this evening, with a risk for a couple tornadoes, damaging gusts, and isolated large hail.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Richmond VA to 20 miles east southeast of Fayetteville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23035.
…Bunting
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas. SAW6 WW 56 TORNADO NC VA 162340Z – 170500Z AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 30WNW RIC/RICHMOND VA/ – 20ESE FAY/FAYETTEVILLE NC/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /26WNW RIC – 46NW ILM/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
LAT…LON 37667662 34847741 34847969 37667901
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU6.
Watch 56 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (20%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (10%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
Mod (60%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
The cryosphere refers to the frozen water features of our planet, including snow, glaciers, ice sheets, sea ice, and permafrost. Water resources and hazards that threaten human life, infrastructure, and commerce are influenced by the cryosphere.
USGS cryospheric research provides scientific insight and unbiased data to our stakeholders and partners allowing them to:
Develop water resources strategies.
Plan for hazards like snow avalanches, flooding, drought, landslides, and coastal erosion.
Develop resource plans for areas affected by snow, ice, or glaciers such as alpine, Arctic, and coastal ecosystems.
A recently published USGS fact sheet describes the importance of the cryosphere and highlights USGS research that benefits various partner agencies and the public. The factsheet also describes how stakeholders use USGS data and how local communities can benefit from USGS cryospheric science. For example, high-elevation weather station data and field observations in Glacier National Park, Montana are used to forecast snow avalanches that affect park roads, highways, and railroad lines.
Click on the images below to learn more about two of the research efforts highlighted in the cryosphere fact sheet and how this research is used to protect transportation corridors, assist with water resource planning, and contribute to global assessments of glacier change.
Today I am announcing changes to the Cabinet and the Ministry of the NSW Government.
The Hon John Graham MLC will remain the Special Minister of State, the Minister for the Arts, the Minister for Music and the Night-time Economy and will permanently take on the role of Minister for Transport
The Hon Jenny Aitchison MP will become the Minister for Roads and the Minister for Regional Transport. Regional roads will now be incorporated into the Roads portfolio. As a regional MP Jenny Aitchison is well placed to ensure the needs of regional and rural communities are met.
John Graham will continue to take carriage of the Government’s response to the toll review given the Government is mid-negotiation with toll companies about reforming the system.
The Hon Steve Kamper MP will be sworn in as the Minister for Jobs and Tourism, in addition to his responsibilities as the Minister for Lands and Property, the Minister for Multiculturalism and the Minister for Sport.
The Minns Labor Government is proud to welcome Janelle Saffin into the NSW Cabinet, to be sworn in as the Minister for Recovery, the Minister for Small Business, and the Minister for the North Coast.
Janelle is one of the most experienced MPs in the NSW Government. She has been instrumental in helping the Lismore community and surrounds recover from the 2022 floods as well as the recent impacts from Ex Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
She has intimate knowledge of the workings of the NSW Reconstruction Authority and will be a very strong advocate and voice for the North Coast as well as small businesses across the state.
Emily Suvaal will also be appointed as the Parliamentary Secretary for Trade and Small Business.
Parliamentary Secretaries perform an important role in supporting Ministers and driving action to deliver on government priorities in Parliament and Emily is an excellent addition to the team.
These are important changes to the NSW Ministry that will ensure we continue to invest in essential services that people rely on, and build a better NSW.
Fire and Emergency New Zealand (FENZ) is currently fighting a scrub fire next to State Highway 1 on the northern side of the Brynderwyn Hills.
NZ Transport Agency does not expect to close this section of SH1 at this point, but is in continual contact with FENZ staff and a traffic management crew is standing by on-site to assist as required.
Road users are asked to allow additional time for their journeys and to slow down, follow any directions from emergency services or traffic management personnel and drive with care, paying close attention to the road, rather than activity alongside it.
As the situation may change, people are encouraged to visit the Journey Planner website for up to date information before they travel.
