NewzIntel.com

Category: Reportage

  • MIL-OSI Global: Swing state voters along the Great Lakes love cleaner water and beaches − and candidates from both parties have long fished for support there

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Mike Shriberg, Professor of Practice & Engagement, School for Environment & Sustainability, University of Michigan

    The Great Lakes account for 20% of the world’s freshwater supply.
     Creative Touch Imaging Ltd./NurPhoto via Getty Images

    If history holds true to form, I expect the presidential campaigns of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to begin touting their support for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative as Election Day approaches.

    The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, or GLRI, is a federal program that funds water and habitat protection and restoration for the Great Lakes, which contain over 20% of the world’s surface freshwater. While voters in some parts of the country may have never heard of it, it is a big deal in the eight states that border these inland seas.

    A 2021 poll by the Great Lakes Water Quality Board found that 90% of U.S. and Canadian residents in the region support the lakes’ protection.

    But the popularity of the Great Lakes would not have blossomed into such an ambitious and bipartisan conservation effort without another critical fact. Three of those eight surrounding states – Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – are critical swing states in 2024. And Ohio, although no longer considered a swing state, had been one until 2016.

    As a scholar of water policy and politics at the University of Michigan’s School for Environment & Sustainability, and a former leader in the Great Lakes advocacy community, I have championed Great Lakes protection and studied the impact of advocacy on policy and funding.

    I have seen how politicians and conservationists deftly use the region’s political battleground status to draw support for Great Lakes restoration from presidential candidates from both major parties. And I believe this is unlikely to change in 2024 and beyond.

    Fighting ‘Everglades envy’

    The Great Lakes are considered a uniting force among residents of the region, thanks to their iconic nature, recreational value and the drinking water they provide to over 40 million people.

    This broad and deep regard, however, was not enough to protect the Great Lakes from extreme degradation throughout the 20th century.

    Time magazine declared Lake Erie “dead” in a 1970 article that included an iconic cover photo of a fire burning on the surface of Cleveland’s Cuyahoga River. This media coverage, following decades of pollution of the Great Lakes, helped to both kick-start the U.S. environmental movement and pave the way for passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972.

    But in 2000, when the Florida Everglades ecosystem – which sits in what was a key swing state at the time – received over US$4 billion in federal funding for a massive cleanup, the Great Lakes still didn’t have the resources for even basic remediation of toxic sites.

    This led many in the region to suffer from what I heard many lawmakers and others describe as “Everglades envy.” They shared maps of how the entire Everglades ecosystem could fit into one corner of the Great Lakes. More importantly, they plotted how to get funding to clean up toxic hot spots, restore degraded habitats, expand recreational access and educate the next generation of Great Lakes leaders.

    George W. Bush’s executive order

    When President George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection team wanted to secure the electoral college votes of Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin, regional lawmakers and advocates helped them craft an executive order. It declared the lakes a “national treasure” and required federal agencies to work together on a “regional collaboration of national significance for the Great Lakes.”

    That same year, philanthropist Peter Wege gave $2.5 million to launch the Healing Our Waters – Great Lakes Coalition. The coalition brought together nonprofits in the region to collectively advocate for cleaning up the lakes.

    After Bush’s reelection, his executive order was used to organize over 1,500 diverse stakeholders into eight strategy teams. These teams created a $20 billion plan for restoring the Great Lakes.

    However, the plan existed only on paper – until the presidential campaigns of 2008, when advocates and political leaders leveraged the swing state status of Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin to garner support for funding the cleanup plan.

    As a result, Sen. Barack Obama’s and Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaigns declared their commitment to Great Lakes restoration.

    Obama launches GLRI

    After winning all eight Great Lakes states in 2008, Obama used stimulus funds to launch the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative in 2010.

    With an initial congressional appropriation of $475 million in 2010, and nearly $300 million in each of the following two years, it was one of the rare times Obama’s proposed budget aligned with Republican priorities in Congress.

    In the run-up to the 2012 presidential election, both Obama and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential nominee whose father was a former governor of Michigan, declared their support for Great Lakes restoration. This came after the Healing Our Waters coalition pressed both campaigns to pledge to fund GLRI and to stop invasive species from reaching the Great Lakes via the Chicago River.

    When President Obama proposed cutting Great Lakes funding from $300 million to $250 million per year, Congress rebuffed him.
    Mark Wilson via Getty Images

    After the 2012 election, the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative continued to receive approximately $300 million per year and strong support in Congress. When Obama proposed modest cuts to the program during his second term, Republicans and Democrats united to restore the funding. The Great Lakes Restoration Initiative inspired “rare bipartisanship,” as The Associated Press reported at the time.

    Trump moves to eliminate funding

    In the 2016 election, representatives for both Trump and his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, pledged support for Great Lakes restoration during the annual meeting of the Healing Our Waters coalition in Sandusky, Ohio. The Trump team, however, was ambiguous about the funding level it supported.

    Once in office, Trump reversed course and proposed eliminating all funding for the initiative.

    Congress, led by bipartisan members of the Great Lakes Congressional Task Force – including U.S. Rep. David Joyce and U.S. Sen. Rob Portman, Ohio Republicans who held powerful appropriations positions – fought back fiercely and restored the funding.

    In 2018 and 2019, Trump’s budgets proposed cutting funding for the initiative by 90%. But again, with strong bipartisan support, it was restored to levels nearing $300 million per year.

    By 2020, concerns tied to his reelection prospects changed Trump’s approach.

    Trump supporters join a boat parade in 2020 on Lake Erie in Sandusky, Ohio.
    Dustin Franz for The Washington Post via Getty Images

    Trump’s turning point

    The famous turning point allegedly came during a car ride to a West Michigan campaign rally in 2019 when Republican U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga emphasized the importance of the Great Lakes to Michigan politics.

    At the rally, Trump reversed his previous position and announced that he would fully fund the GLRI at $300 million per year.

    He went further: “I support the Great Lakes. Always have. They’re beautiful. They’re big. Very deep. Record deepness, right? … We’re going to make the Great Lakes great again.”

    In response, Michigan Democratic U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee quipped, “The President claiming to support the Great Lakes is like an arsonist congratulating themselves for putting out a fire they started.”

    Regardless, Trump’s shift helped the restoration initiative reach $320 million in funding in the 2021 budget – the first time it topped $300 million since its first year.

    On the campaign trail in 2020, both Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden highlighted their support for GLRI during swing state stops in the upper Midwest. Biden ultimately won all three of the current Great Lakes swing states and strongly supported the GLRI while in office too.

    In 2021, he signed into law the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which included $1 billion in additional GLRI funding over five years. With this boost, funding for the initiative reached nearly $550 million in 2022, its highest ever.

    Bipartisan litmus test

    Since its launch in 2010, the GLRI has funded over 7,500 projects to clean up polluted waterways, restore habitats, control invasive species, reduce polluted runoff, improve recreational access and educate the public.

    Great Lakes pollution remains a complex problem, however, and climate change further complicates cleanup efforts.

    The Biden administration has repeatedly emphasized and implemented its commitment to the Great Lakes specifically and water infrastructure generally.

    And in the current race, both vice presidential candidates are from the region. In 2023, U.S. Sen. JD Vance of Ohio became the Republican co-chair of the Great Lakes Congressional Task Force. He has supported legislation to increase funding for the GLRI.

    Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Harris’ running mate on the Democratic ticket, briefly referenced the Great Lakes’ freshwater supply during the Oct. 1, 2024, vice presidential debate. He too has strongly supported efforts to restore them during his time in office.

    Although Great Lakes restoration has not yet played a major public role in either Trump’s or Harris’ 2024 campaign, history tells us that the issue plays well politically in key swing states in the upper Midwest. In fact, it has become a rare bipartisan litmus test of allegiance to this politically divided and critically important region.

    Mike Shriberg was previously the Great Lakes Regional Executive Director of the National Wildlife Federation, which entailed being a co-chair (and, for part of the time, Director) of the Healing Our Waters – Great Lakes Coalition that is referenced in the article.

    – ref. Swing state voters along the Great Lakes love cleaner water and beaches − and candidates from both parties have long fished for support there – https://theconversation.com/swing-state-voters-along-the-great-lakes-love-cleaner-water-and-beaches-and-candidates-from-both-parties-have-long-fished-for-support-there-237946

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: European court ruling finds just cause to award soccer players greater freedom of movement

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Stefan Szymanski, Professor of Sport Management, University of Michigan

    A ruling that Harry Kane may be happy about? James Gill/Danehouse via Getty Images

    Many of us have quit a job at some point in our lives – but how many have wondered if they had “just cause” to do so? Were you acting on a whim? Did your departure make life difficult for your employer? And did your desire to move on really outweigh the loss this meant for your boss?

    Just cause can be a real problem for professional soccer players who want to change teams. Under the soccer transfer system created and operated by FIFA, the sport’s world governing body, players who quit without showing just cause – that is, who fail to show that their employer treated them in manner that is demonstrably unfair – can be subject to significant financial and disciplinary penalties.

    But that could soon change. On Oct. 4, 2024, the European Court of Justice took a major step toward dismantling an employment system that placed undue burden on employees and, thankfully, was dispensed with for the rest of us long ago.

    As a sports economist, I have written about this subject for several years now, and I know of no system outside of sports that restrains the rights of the employee to a comparable extent.

    An object lesson for FIFA

    The legal case is complicated, but the essence of it is that Lassana Diarra, a star player for Lokomotiv Moscow back in 2014, got into a dispute with the Russian club while under contract and quit. He then got a job offer from a Belgian club but was unable to take it because of the FIFA transfer regulations.

    Europe’s top court ruled in favor of former French international Lassana Diarra.
    Photo by Jean Catuffe/Getty Images

    Under the governing body’s rules, not only was Diarra expected to pay damages to Lokomotiv amounting to US$11.5 million plus interest, but he was unable to take a job with any club until the dispute was settled. A formal suspension was not enforced, because Diarra had already been unable to work for 11 months.

    But Diarra countersued, claiming the regulations of FIFA unreasonably restricted his employment rights. The case has passed through many stages, until the highest court in Europe finally delivered its decision.

    The court struck down two specific parts of FIFA’s regulations: the rule that an International Transfer Certificate, required by a player to move from one country to another, cannot be issued until the dispute is settled; and the stipulation that any new employer of the player is jointly and severally liable for any damages against the player due to the old club, regardless of whether that employer played a role in the dispute.

    The court, which has historically been deferential toward sports governing bodies and their regulations, was highly critical of FIFA’s transfer system. It declared the rules anti-competitive “by object” and not just “by effect.” In the view of the court, the rules were not merely aimed at ensuring an orderly market for soccer player services, but amounted to a “non-poaching agreement,” arguing that they were intended to restrain competition for players in order to benefit the clubs.

    An end to transfer fees?

    The decision means that FIFA will have to rewrite its transfer rules in a way that demonstrates that the system has a clear and legal purpose. The regulations will be deemed legitimate, the court said, for the purposes of guaranteeing “contractual stability” and ensuring that clubs have the right to receive compensation when there’s breach of contract.

    A player who quits while under contract will still need to demonstrate just cause – unfair treatment by the club – or else be liable to pay a fine or penalty. But the new system will look very different, and it is hard to see how the payment of transfer fees can survive.

    Last summer alone, clubs in the top five European leagues spent around $5 billion on player transfers. Frequently, there are moves between clubs in each direction, and so cash transfers are smaller than the big money moves that grab the headlines.

    The system deprives some star players of substantial potential earnings.

    Take England national team captain Harry Kane, for example. In 2023, German club Bayern Munich paid London-based Tottenham around $100 million to buy Kane out of the last year of his contract. Kane was being paid about $13 million a year at Tottenham, and he got a four-year contract at Bayern, paying him around $27 million a year.

    While his salary doubled, Kane received only half of what Bayern was prepared to pay to obtain his services, thanks to the FIFA regulations. The rest went to his former club.

    Here is what one might expect to happen from now on: Kane would unilaterally announce that he wanted to leave, and then a club like Bayern could make an offer. Tottenham would no longer have any enforceable claim over Bayern and so no transfer fee would be paid, and Bayern would offer to pay Kane something like $52 million a year.

    Kane would have to pay damages to Tottenham for breach of contract, and the court suggested that these damages might reasonably equal the wages that the club would have paid him for the remainder of the contract – so in the case of Kane, $13 million.

    Clearly Kane would have been much better off if the judgment had arrived a year or two ago.

    Don’t fall for the trickle-down myth

    Soccer fans will be worried that this means financial ruin for their club and increases inequality as the big clubs poach the big stars.

    But I see no reason to think that the sky will fall. As recent research has shown, the transfer system has a negligible effect on the distribution of resources among the clubs. Rather, transfer fee spending is more likely the source of financial instability than its remedy, as some clubs spend extravagantly with unrealistic expectations.

    It is true that club owners hoping to grow rich by developing young players and trading them in the market will believe that they now have fewer opportunities, but for most clubs, this has always been an illusion.

    Big clubs tend to tie up the potential stars in their teens, leaving few opportunities for small clubs to find diamonds in the rough.

    Major League Soccer, the U.S. professional league, for example, has ambitions to one day match the big European leagues and has committed significant resources to developing player talent.

    But recent figures suggest that the league is still a net importer of players – and not just superstars such as Lionel Messi.

    In fact, MLS might actually benefit from the end of the transfer system. There are plenty of talented players who might fancy a year or two in the U.S. if they are not unduly tied down by transfer regulations.

    Blowing the whistle on unfair practices

    But perhaps the biggest impact of the ruling will be on the mass of professional players who do not live in the spotlight.

    FIFA estimates there are around 130,000 professional players worldwide, and most of them earn little in comparison to the super-salaried stars of the world’s biggest clubs.

    Yet, these journeymen and -women players have been bound by the same restrictive system and are often denied the opportunity to change teams – not because they are being offered great riches, but because they want a change of scene, or to be closer to their families.

    FIFPro, the players’ union, has documented numerous cases of onerous employment conditions, which were possible under the repressive transfer system.

    Thanks to the European Court of Justice, those days may soon be over.

    In 2015 I wrote a report for FIFPro on the economic consequences of the transfer system

    – ref. European court ruling finds just cause to award soccer players greater freedom of movement – https://theconversation.com/european-court-ruling-finds-just-cause-to-award-soccer-players-greater-freedom-of-movement-240403

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Crucial topics are missing from teens’ education on sex and reproductive health in England

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Rina Biswakarma, PhD researcher in Reproductive Health, UCL

    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    Comprehensive sex and reproductive health education aims to promote positive attitudes toward sex and reproductive health, and empower young people to make informed decisions.

    But decent sex and reproductive health education is still lacking in many parts of the world. This leaves significant gaps in young peoples’ knowledge and understanding.

    We have carried out research to figure out what young people in England are missing in their sex education lessons. We reviewed the relationships and sex education (RSE) curricula across the UK.

    We found that, in England, much of the focus of sex and reproductive health education is on pregnancy prevention. Much less emphasis is given to reproductive health topics such as polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), endometriosis, fertility and the menopause.

    We also carried out a survey of 931 students aged 16-18 across England. We found students were missing key aspects of reproductive health knowledge.

    Students are not being adequately informed about fertility, despite the RSE curriculum guidelines stating that students must be taught “the facts about reproductive health, including fertility, and the potential impact of lifestyle on fertility”.

    Lack of knowledge

    For example, despite the fact that students learn about the menstrual cycle in RSE lessons, half of them did not know when women are most fertile during the menstrual cycle.

    Less than 3% of teenagers in our study told us that they had been taught about specific reproductive health conditions such as endometriosis and PCOS. Just over 10% said they had learned about menopause.

    Over 70% of students recognised the decline in egg quality and quantity with age, but only about 50% understood the effects of age on sperm quality and quantity.

    In our survey, we asked students what reproductive health topics they research about outside of school. Students told us that they had sought out knowledge on a variety of reproductive health topics, including PCOS, endometriosis, menopause, miscarriage and abortion – subjects that are seldom covered in detail during RSE lessons.

    Many turned to social media and the internet for answers on sex and reproductive health. While these platforms offer easy access to information, they can also expose students to misinformation from non-credible sources.

    In our survey, 70% of students said that they had “a little” sex education at their school. Only 30% rated their school’s sex education as good or very good. This shows a major gap in the quality of sex education most students are getting at school.

    Knowledge seeking

    Our study shows that students in England want to learn more about these topics in school. When we asked them what could be done to improve sex education at school, they called for a more inclusive and comprehensive curriculum that covers a wider variety of topics – including miscarriage, abortion, masturbation and how to access sexual and reproductive health services. One student said:

    All we’ve done in school is go over and over having safe sex and talked about periods which whilst is important is barely scratching the surface of things people need to know about.

    Students want greater focus on sex positivity because current discussions mostly highlight negative aspects of sexual activity. They believe the importance of sexual wellbeing is often ignored. They want honest, transparent, and non-judgmental education – not teaching methods driven by fear.

    Based on our findings, our research team, as part of the non-profit International Reproductive Health Education Collaboration has developed evidence-based educational resources to enhance reproductive health education. These include an education resource for teachers, information leaflets and a fertility education poster.

    These tools aim to help teachers, health professionals and the public access accurate and comprehensive reproductive health education.

    Teens turn to other sources, such as social media, to get information they’re missing at school.
    Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock

    Under the previous government, the Department of Education proposed an update to the RSE curriculum, which included the addition of topics such as “menstrual and gynaecological health, including endometriosis, PCOS, and heavy menstrual bleeding.”

    The results of a consultation on this and other proposed changes are currently under analysis. But adding these topics to the curriculum would be a crucial advancement in school reproductive health education.

    Reproductive health education must be given equal importance to core academic subjects, and schools need to actively engage with students, addressing their reproductive health needs and concerns. This is crucial, as school is often the only time that students receive formal education on these topics.

    By providing comprehensive and accessible information at this stage, schools can equip students with the knowledge they need to make informed decisions about their reproductive health throughout their lives.

    Rina Biswakarma is affiliated with the charity Fertility Network UK.

    Daniel Marcu owns shares in Virilitas Labs and he is the President of the Network for Young Researchers in Andrology (non-profit).

    Joyce Harper gives paid talks on reproductive health education and has written a book called Your Fertile Years.

    – ref. Crucial topics are missing from teens’ education on sex and reproductive health in England – https://theconversation.com/crucial-topics-are-missing-from-teens-education-on-sex-and-reproductive-health-in-england-237281

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why a pilot scheme removing peak rail fares should have been allowed to go the distance

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Rachel Scarfe, Lecturer in Economics, University of Stirling

    A pilot removing peak fares on ScotRail trains has ended. Loch Earn/Shutterstock

    Commuters in Scotland faced a shock at ticket machines as the Scottish government abandoned a pilot scheme that removed peak rail fares. During the pilot, tickets were the same price all day. But now that it has ended, the increase in fares is significant. The cost of commuting at peak time from Glasgow to Edinburgh, for example, has gone from £16.20 to £31.40.

    The aim of the pilot, introduced in October 2023, was to encourage what’s known as a “modal shift” from cars to more sustainable transport.

    Defending its decision, the Scottish government made two claims: that the pilot increased passenger numbers by only 6.8% (when an increase of 10% was required for it to be self-financing) and that it mostly benefited wealthier passengers.

    These claims were widely reported, but are they correct? And what does this mean for similar schemes in other countries?

    Passengers using the train to get to and from work benefited most from the pilot, which made travel cheaper at peak times (early morning until around 9am and evenings until around 7pm). It is true that wealthier people in the UK tend to use trains and cars more, while poorer people are more likely to travel by bus.

    The graph below shows how much £100 of train and bus tickets, and £100 of petrol ten years ago would cost today.

    Cost of transport in the UK (2014-2024)

    The increase in train fares has been smoother, but mostly faster, than the increase in petrol prices. However, bus fares have increased faster than both. Scotland has not followed England in capping bus fares, a policy that might have benefited lower-income passengers more.

    In theory, a decrease in price for a product will result in an increase in demand. But it is impossible to calculate exactly how much passenger numbers increased due to the pilot, because we cannot know for sure how many passengers would have travelled anyway (the “counterfactual”).

    To estimate the rise in demand brought about by cheaper fares, we must make assumptions about the counterfactual, where peak fares remained in place. This is especially difficult for two reasons. First, the pilot began as passenger numbers were rising again after the COVID lockdowns.



    Read more:
    Catching public transport in Queensland will soon cost just 50 cents. Are cheap fares good policy?

    Statisticians must make assumptions about how much demand would have continued to rise in this case. Depending on these assumptions, the estimated effect of the pilot on demand for rail travel ranges from an increase of 16% to a fall of 5%, compared with the final figure of 6.8%. A change in assumptions can change the estimated rise in demand substantially.

    Second, the pilot spanned a period of disruption on the railways. Strikes in Scotland in 2022 may have put people off train travel, and again, we cannot know whether they would have returned in the counterfactual scenario.

    And bad weather in Scotland in early 2024 and disruption caused by strikes in England and Wales make it difficult to use the rest of Great Britain as a control group to compare against Scotland.

    To estimate the effects of a policy like the pilot, statisticians must make many other assumptions. For example, in April 2024 there was a big increase in fares across Scotland. The analysis underlying the report assumes that this would have happened even without the pilot.

    All these assumptions (and more) lie beneath the reported 6.8% increase in demand and make it impossible to be confident that this was the true number of passengers who shifted to rail travel because peak fares were axed.

    What’s happening elsewhere?

    Similar schemes have been piloted in other countries, including a flat rate €49 (£40) per month (increased from €9) rail pass in Germany, a 50 cent (30 pence) flat fare across all public transport in Queensland, Australia, and a £2 flat bus fare in England.

    As with the pilot in Scotland, it is difficult to determine whether these schemes have caused a modal shift. Some new evidence from Germany suggests that cheaper fares encouraged people to make more journeys overall, but that the shift from cars to trains was limited.

    However, we know that the elasticity (how much demand changes as prices change) of public transport fares is greater in the long term than in the short term. There is a danger that, as in Scotland, governments will cancel them before the long-term effects are clear.

    The SNP government in Scotland is facing difficulties balancing its budget. In these circumstances, any further subsidy to public transport seems unlikely. Instead, the government will have to find other ways to reach its net zero commitments.

    There is evidence that people respond more strongly to an increase in price than to a decrease. If this is the case, the pilot itself could even cause a long-term decrease in passenger numbers in Scotland, because the fall in people using the trains due to the reintroduction of peak fares might be greater than the increase during the pilot.

    It is impossible to tell yet, but in the long term this could make travelling on the railways more expensive for both passengers and for the government subsidising them.

    Rachel Scarfe is a member of the Labour Party.

    – ref. Why a pilot scheme removing peak rail fares should have been allowed to go the distance – https://theconversation.com/why-a-pilot-scheme-removing-peak-rail-fares-should-have-been-allowed-to-go-the-distance-240224

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Devolving justice and policing to Wales would put it on par with Scotland and Northern Ireland – so what’s holding it back?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen Clear, Lecturer in Constitutional and Administrative Law, and Public Procurement, Bangor University

    Ceri Breeze/Shutterstock

    Devolution is “a process, not an event”, according to the then-secretary of state for Wales, Ron Davies, in 1997. But it is unclear what may come next for Wales in that process under the new UK Labour government, despite the same party now being in charge in both London and Cardiff.

    One ongoing debate among politicians and experts for several years has been whether Westminster should and will devolve more powers to Wales, including justice and policing.

    It wasn’t until the passing of the Government of Wales Act 1998 that the then National Assembly was established. It allowed Wales to make decisions over issues such as education, housing and agriculture. Further primary law-making powers were subsequently granted to the now Senedd (Welsh parliament).

    But Wales doesn’t have control over all matters and some are reserved for the UK parliament. A number of these are consistent across all UK nations, including fiscal policy, foreign affairs, nuclear policy and national security. But others are different for Wales when compared to Scotland and Northern Ireland.

    One of the most obvious examples is in the area of justice and policing. Unlike Scotland and Northern Ireland, Wales is not a separate legal jurisdiction with its own system of law, policing and courts. While there are increasing areas of divergence between England and Wales, technically speaking, Wales is part of a single jurisdiction with England due to decisions made during Henry VIII’s reign in the 16th century.

    The issue of devolving justice and policing has cropped up consistently over the past 25 years. It has been the subject of a variety of debates in the Senedd, Westminster and in the media. It has also been analysed by a number of official reports and independent or cross-party commissions.

    In 2011, the Silk commission was established by the UK government to explore the issue. In its 2014 report, it recommended devolving policing and youth justice to Wales by 2017. That never happened.

    The Thomas commission, set up by the Welsh government in 2019, also recommended devolving justice to Wales, including youth justice and policing. Earlier this year, the independent commission on the constitutional future of Wales called on the UK government to agree to the devolution of responsibility for justice and policing to the Senedd and Welsh government.

    In 2023, Keir Starmer said that a Labour government would introduce a “take back control bill”, to devolve new powers to communities from Westminster. Those intentions were echoed in Labour’s election manifesto ahead of July’s general election.

    But the issue of devolving justice to Wales was absent from Labour’s manifesto. And in an interview in June, the now-secretary of state for Wales Jo Stevens described such a move as “fiddling around with structures and systems”. It is therefore unclear whether devolution to regions of England will take place in parallel to further devolution to Wales and the other nations.

    And while this issue may not be at the forefront of UK Labour policy, it is an ongoing commitment of Welsh Labour. The latter commissioned even further research in August into the devolution of justice.

    What are some of the potential challenges?

    One significant issue is the age of criminal responsibility, currently set at ten in England and Wales. The Thomas commission recommended raising this to 12, aligning Wales with Scotland and the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child.

    But this raises logistical questions. For example, what would happen when a case crosses borders or involves children just above or below the age threshold? These practical challenges need to be addressed if justice is to be devolved smoothly.

    The Thomas Commission also laid out detailed proposals for reforms to youth justice, prisons and probation services. The Welsh youth courts have already started implementing a more preventive and restorative approach, but a jurisdictional overlap with England has slowed progress. While children’s services are devolved, youth justice remains under UK government control.



    Read more:
    Crown estate: why it’s time to devolve it and put Wales on par with Scotland

    Issues like transport to courts, funding and jurisdictional boundaries need careful consideration too. For example, how would authorities determine whether a crime committed near the Wales-England border falls under Welsh or English law?

    Of course, this is an issue which already exists between England and Scotland, and there are complex rules in place. Dependent upon the nature and circumstances of the crime, “jurisdiction” is typically dependent on where it was first initiated. In turn, further challenges arise surrounding police force cooperation, as well as mechanisms for sharing different types of evidence. There are also legally-protected agreements regarding powers to arrest people in each other’s territories.

    Ironing out these types of issues is particularly important in respect of female offenders, as Wales has made progress in providing better support for them.

    Disparities in legal expertise may also become more of a challenge. Legal experts have noted that as Welsh laws become more distinct, judges in England may lack the relevant expertise to handle Welsh cases. This concern has already arisen in Welsh tribunals, where appeals are sometimes directed to England’s Upper Tribunal, raising doubts about how well English judges can handle increasingly Wales-specific laws.

    Cooperation

    While these issues are very real, they shouldn’t block progress. With cooperation between Cardiff and Westminster, the devolution of justice could happen without major disruption. Instead of having endless debates and reviews, time and resources could be better spent acting on existing expert recommendations.

    For instance, both governments could agree on a ten-year timeline – as recommended by the independent commission – to devolve justice, starting with policing. It’s an area which already has strong ties to devolved services at the local level. Youth justice and probation could then follow.

    Despite the potential challenges, the new Labour UK government has a chance to bring about meaningful change. Devolving justice may take time, but it could bring Wales closer to achieving the legal autonomy many believe it deserves.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Devolving justice and policing to Wales would put it on par with Scotland and Northern Ireland – so what’s holding it back? – https://theconversation.com/devolving-justice-and-policing-to-wales-would-put-it-on-par-with-scotland-and-northern-ireland-so-whats-holding-it-back-238634

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why it’s so hard to kick fossil fuels out of sport

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Theo Lorenzo Frixou, PhD Candidate, Social Sciences, Loughborough University

    A 52 Super Series sailing race off Palma de Mallorca. Villegas Photo/Shutterstock

    Governments and public relations firms are under pressure to, in UN secretary-general António Guterres’s words, stop “fuelling the madness” and ban fossil fuel advertising or cut ties with the industry.

    France, Amsterdam, Sheffield and Edinburgh have all restricted fossil fuel advertising to differing degrees in recognition of the industry’s responsibility for climate breakdown.

    People working in the advertising industry are among those calling for an end to working with fossil fuel companies. There is a reputational risk with continuing to represent these businesses. Four advertising agencies recently lost a sustainability certification for taking an oil company as a client.

    Oil and gas advertising is perhaps most prolific in sport. A recent report estimated that fossil fuel companies have invested more than £4 billion across 200 sponsorship deals.

    Fellow researchers have appealed for sport to be included in any further advertising bans. There is a precedent: a tobacco advertising ban came into force in the UK in 2002. Bear in mind, that ban took nearly 40 years of campaigning and tobacco executives have shown they’re capable of navigating its loopholes.

    Even so, the fossil fuel industry will prove significantly harder to purge than tobacco. Here’s why.

    ‘No fossil fuels, no sport’

    Human development is largely a story of increasing energy use. Oil in particular has transformed everyday life beyond comprehension.

    Whether it be in the form of high-profile sponsorship deals, sporting equipment made from petrol-based products like carbon fibre or flying to meet the demand for ever more fixtures, modern sport reflects society’s oil dependency.

    Sport is entwined with high-carbon industries.
    Parkdolly/Shutterstock

    The fossil fuel industry knows this. Despite the longstanding scientific consensus that fossil fuels must be phased out, the industry seeks to convince the public that oil and gas will still be needed for a very long time.

    Analysis of one oil company’s sustainability reports identified how its communications strategy shifted from denying the results of climate science to more subtle efforts to delay an energy transition. These included the argument that fossil fuels are an irreplaceable precondition for “the good life”.

    Sport is a vehicle for perpetuating this argument. In 2021, an oil and gas trade association in the US launched a campaign showcasing sports products made from petroleum, the implication being that people cannot enjoy sport without fossil fuels.

    Sport is poised for corporate piggybacking because it evokes connection, pride and security in fans and spectators – feelings the fossil fuel industry is keen to capitalise on. An analysis of the Canadian oil industry’s advertising between 2006 and 2015 documented a shift from images of the natural environment to those depicting family life and domesticity.

    This kind of pernicious messaging, which entrenches fossil fuels within the things people hold dear, will be hard for legislators to reverse.

    Oil change

    Imre Szeman, a professor of human geography who specialises in the energy transition, urges us to comprehend just how deep our relationship with oil runs.

    Addressing climate change is not simply a technical matter, but a cultural one as well. An issue of how we grasp what is so often taken for granted in everyday life.

    Change will not only require acknowledging the severity of the environmental crisis, but to recognise how its primary causes have shaped society, including in elite sport. It’s crucial to understand modern societies as oil societies if we are ever to envisage one no longer dependent on it.

    Sport sponsorships reflect the infiltration of fossil fuels in modern society.
    Trong Nguyen/Shutterstock

    So, considering sport, the first step is to remove the cognitive dissonance that surrounds modern elite sporting culture, the nature of its oil dependency and the consequences of climate change.

    Sporting organisations can start by saying no to fossil fuel sponsorship. There are examples of this happening already in tennis, rugby and the Olympics, with Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo indicating an oil company was not welcome as a sponsor of the 2024 Games.

    Change happens by disaster or by design. It’s time to recognise the decades long influence wielded by the fossil fuel industry.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get our award-winning weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 35,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Theo Lorenzo Frixou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why it’s so hard to kick fossil fuels out of sport – https://theconversation.com/why-its-so-hard-to-kick-fossil-fuels-out-of-sport-239620

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Africa’s Great Green Wall will only combat desertification and poverty by harnessing local solutions

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jeremy Allouche, Professor in Development Studies, Institute of Development Studies

    Flags indicate how many trees each donor country has planted. Jeremy Allouche, CC BY-ND

    In the rural village of Téssékéré, the increasing number and intensity of droughts linked to climate change is making the lives and livelihoods of the local Fulani communities increasingly vulnerable. Here, in the northern Sahel desert region of Senegal (known as the Ferlo), the pastoral population walks over dry, dusty ground with their livestock in search of grazing areas and working borehole water pumps. In favourable years, these farmers can stay in the fields around their local borehole, but climate change is forcing them to move further afield to find pasture to feed their cattle.

    In the small Ivory Coast town of Kani, a farmer is concerned about the increase in plantation areas to the detriment of forests, which no longer provide shade. The scarcity and fluctuation of rainfall is altering the sowing periods for rice, maize and yams, and the intermittent nature of the rains is leading to a drop in production quality.

    These issues of gradual desertification – where more of the land slowly becomes desert – affects both nature and people. As soil degrades, people migrate to different areas and it can be harder for them to access health services and education while undermining subsistence and production economies, therefore increasing poverty.

    As a response, the African Union set up an ambitious continent-wide megaproject in 2007 to address these social-ecological issues and combat poverty. The Great Green Wall initiative is a tree planting restoration project that stretches from Senegal to Djibouti, 5,000 miles (8,000km) across Africa’s Sahel region.

    In Téssékéré, bare, scattered plots of fenced-off land covered in cracked soil is now being used to test out techniques for growing seedlings and protect it from further damage by grazing cattle. Winter crops such as peanuts or black-eyed peas are being grown based on an agroecological model, a sustainable farming strategy considering ecological processes.

    But large-scale projects like this often don’t consider the needs of local people or places. Our new research shows that the Great Green Wall won’t work effectively unless it considers more localised contexts.

    At the other end of the continent, the Green Legacy Initiative, a project launched by the Ethiopian government, claims to have planted 566 million trees in one day. In Ivory Coast, which lies outside the original route, local and state authorities see the project as a means of stabilising the ecosystem. However, local populations are concerned that it will be implemented in an ad hoc, unstable and unsustainable manner. In short, the project gives rise to a diversity of opinions and, above all, a multitude of implementation strategies.

    Two decades after its launch, the Great Green Wall project is not meeting the expectations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other independent experts, especially regarding forest cover increase in the area and global implementation of the project.

    In 2021, the French president Emmanuel Macron launched the Great Green Wall accelerator to bring the project into line with a new political timeframe to speed it up.

    With investment of US$19 billion (£14.82 billion), more action, such as land restoration and investment in farming, can be rolled out across Africa, so the focus is now on large-scale change rather than localised projects. The Great Green Wall has become an umbrella term, a brand encompassing many development projects managed by different international and intergovernmental organisations. This is at odds with our research findings confirming that the ambitious aims of the project aren’t being implemented locally in an effective manner.

    This “takeover” of the project by developed countries prompts us to question what the project has now become and its ability to meet its original purpose.

    Set to fail?

    The Great Green Wall will fail unless it returns to its original aim of being a pan-African project made up of a multitude of aspirations, imaginations and local social-ecological contexts. Project funding alone is not enough to ensure the success of the project – it needs local appropriation. Success should not be measured solely in terms of how many trees are being planted, but on whether local people see a positive difference from the project in their areas and on their lives.

    From Senegal to Ethiopia, our research shows that the Great Green Wall implies a diversity of world views. The project is therefore implemented specifically in each region, in each country, to form a project mosaic. The initiative loses its substance and its capacity for local appropriation when homogenised and globalised to fit into external political agendas.

    An agroecological initiative like this one only works when it involves the people living on the ground. More than simply an eco-project, it is a diverse, pan-African and locally embedded social-ecological initiative with scope to make substantial change at scale if executed well.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 35,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Jeremy Allouche receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.

    Elie Pedarros works for Newcastle University

    – ref. Africa’s Great Green Wall will only combat desertification and poverty by harnessing local solutions – https://theconversation.com/africas-great-green-wall-will-only-combat-desertification-and-poverty-by-harnessing-local-solutions-235240

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Britain has neglected Africa and the Commonwealth for over a decade: 4 ways it can reset relations

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Nicholas Westcott, Professor of Practice in Diplomacy, Dept of Politics and International Studies, SOAS, University of London

    The United Kingdom is resetting its relations with Africa and other countries in the global south after more than a decade of neglect. At the United Nations in September, British prime minister Keir Starmer promised his government was

    returning the UK to responsible global leadership.

    This should include reconnecting with the countries of the global south which feel they have been neglected and among whom Britain’s voice is now at a discount.

    The new Labour government’s recently launched reviews of Britain’s global impact and its international economic and development policies provide an opportunity to reevaluate and relaunch these relations. The opportunity must be seized for the sake of global stability.

    The post-cold war order is fraying. America is increasingly reluctant to act as a global guarantor for a multilateral system governed by international rules and respecting human rights and freedoms. China, Russia and emerging middle powers such as Iran, Turkey and the Gulf States seem happier with a multipolar system based on the exercise of military and economic power. Meanwhile, the accelerating impact of climate change adds to the challenges to regional stability in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

    I have followed these questions for nearly 50 years, as an academic and diplomat. Much has changed in those years, but recent British governments have been slow to adapt to these changes. To reconnect with countries in Africa and the global south, Britain needs a new attitude as well as new policies; and, paradoxically perhaps, the Commonwealth can play a constructive role in achieving this.

    Britain’s problem

    Distracted by its domestic political and economic difficulties since Brexit, recent British governments have neglected both Africa and the Commonwealth.

    • Aid has been cut, and policy incoherence exacerbated by the merger between the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and Department for International Development.

    • An investment conference with Africa due earlier in 2024 was scrapped at short notice.

    • Successive prime ministers gave little time to meeting African and other leaders from the global south. They had no answer to the questions being asked about Britain’s relationship with the south.

    Yet Britain’s links to these countries remain strong. Not least through the growing diaspora communities in the UK that are now an integral part of Britain’s social and political fabric. With 5.5 million people of Asian heritage and 2.5 million of African or mixed heritage in the UK in 2021, these bonds need to be politically recognised.



    Read more:
    How Commonwealth countries have forged a new way to appoint judges

    Most of those Britons come from Commonwealth countries. The Commonwealth as an organisation is no substitute for closer engagement with individual countries. But it provides a forum where connections can be made and a new, more equal relationship built.

    Though British governments have neglected it, King Charles, the ceremonial head of the Commonwealth, has not, as his visit to Kenya in 2023 showed. And other countries are still seeking to join, as Gabon and Togo did last year.

    Commonwealth heads of government meeting

    From 21-26 October Samoa will host the biennial Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting (Chogm), which will choose a new secretary-general – this time from Africa. The summit brings together representatives from every continent: from G7 members to least developed countries, from the most populous country (India at 1.45 billion people) to the smallest (Tuvalu with under 10,000), from major greenhouse gas emitters to small islands at risk of disappearing beneath the sea.

    Despite its imperial origins, the Commonwealth is an international network that cuts across the multi-polarity that risks dividing the world. It includes countries from the global south, the global north and the global east. The diversity makes it an ideal forum for honest conversations on difficult issues like climate change and multilateral institutional reform.

    Unlike the recent Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (Focac) in Beijing, the Commonwealth is an organisation run by its members. They share common values and interests as well as a common language. They come together to exchange ideas, not pledges of investment or aid. Its traditions of democracy and equality between members make it unique and valuable. It provides, for example, a ready-made network of global influence for any member state. For small island states, particularly in the Caribbean and Pacific, it is one forum where their voices can be amplified.

    This is important. With the community of nations struggling to address global challenges of the scale of climate change and pandemics, or to resolve regional conflicts, opportunities to build consensus are needed more than ever. The wars in Ukraine, the Middle East, the Sahel and the Horn of Africa are a portent of things to come if we fail to sustain a global structure that can resolve rather than exacerbate such conflicts. UN peacemaking efforts might then be crowned with success rather than with futility and frustration.

    What Britain needs to do

    Britain is only one among many voices, so it needs a persuasive narrative that will help preserve a world order that can tackle humanity’s challenges, rather than one that simply fights over what is left. The Commonwealth, like the UN, is a place where the UK can start building support for a more equal and more effective global system.

    A new narrative, and a new relationship with Africa and the global south, should be based on four elements.

    Firstly, repentance for sins past. Britain’s empire played a central role in making the modern world, for better and worse. While the better is often taken for granted, the sins of empire still rankle, and – like a stone in the shoe – will distract relations. Best therefore to acknowledge them, and move forward.

    Secondly, the new relationship must be based on mutual respect and partnership. In particular, the age of traditional development programmes with their paternalistic tendencies is past. What countries in the global south are seeking, as many feel they do get from China, is a genuine partnership of equals that recognises the relationship as a whole and focuses on the political as well as economic sources of growth.

    Thirdly, Britain needs to work with African and other southern governments to amplify their voice in multilateral institutions such as the UN and international financial institutions, so that those institutions genuinely protect their interests and those countries defend the institutions.

    Finally, Britain needs to engage with the public as much as with governments in these countries. The BBC World Service, the British Council and Britain’s education sector are becoming more important in challenging disinformation as the battle of narratives hots up. Now is the time to reinforce them, not let them fade away.

    A new narrative along these lines at Chogm, and incorporated into the government’s reviews, could be the start of a genuine reset in Britain’s relationship with the global south, to the benefit of all.

    Nicholas Westcott does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Britain has neglected Africa and the Commonwealth for over a decade: 4 ways it can reset relations – https://theconversation.com/britain-has-neglected-africa-and-the-commonwealth-for-over-a-decade-4-ways-it-can-reset-relations-239852

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kenya’s laws make it a crime to attempt suicide – this hurts vulnerable people

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Linnet Ongeri, Principal Clinical Research Scientist, KEMRI Wellcome Trust Research Programme

    One in every 100 deaths globally is by suicide. Each year, more than 700,000 people die by suicide. A staggering 77% of suicides occur in low- and middle-income countries, with the African region bearing the highest burden at a rate of 11.2 deaths per 100,000 people. In Kenya, the crude suicide rate is 6.1 deaths per 100,000 people. Men are three times more likely to die by suicide than women. Linnet Ongeri is a psychiatrist and a mental health researcher with a focus on suicide prevention. She examines the factors behind Kenya’s suicide rate and recent efforts to decriminalise attempted suicide.

    What are the drivers of suicide?

    Suicide is a complex issue. It results from the interplay of various factors, including genetic, biological, psychological, socioeconomic and cultural influences.

    There is a strong link between suicide and mental health disorders. However, many suicides occur impulsively during moments of crisis or in response to significant life challenges. These challenges often involve the denial of basic human rights and access to resources. They could also be brought on by stressful events like a loss of livelihood, academic or work-related pressures, relationship breakdowns and other life crises.

    Stigmatising views portray suicide as a sign of weakness or failure, rather than a result of deep emotional distress or mental health challenges. Suicide stigma refers to the negative attitudes, beliefs and misconceptions that surround individuals who experience suicidal thoughts or attempt suicide. This stigma often manifests as judgment, shame or social exclusion. This makes it difficult for people to openly discuss their struggles or seek help.

    Societal stigma isolates individuals and creates barriers to accessing mental health support. This further compounds the risk of suicide.

    What role does the criminalisation of suicide play?

    The relationship between stigma and the criminalisation of suicide is especially concerning.

    In Kenya, Section 226 of the penal code states that any person who tries to kill him or herself is guilty of a misdemeanour. He or she is liable to imprisonment of up to two years, a fine, or both. This law, inherited from the English common law, has been repealed in several countries globally.

    Suicide was criminalised under British law prior to the 1960s largely due to historical and religious beliefs. These beliefs viewed suicide as a moral transgression and influenced legal systems. In 1961, efforts to decriminalise suicide gained global momentum following growing recognition of the link to mental health. Of the 20 countries that still criminalise attempted suicide, nine are in Africa.

    Even though the law is aimed at deterring people from taking their own lives, there is local and international evidence that criminalisation of attempted suicide increases suicide risk. Treating survivors of suicide as criminals worsens the stigma that surrounds mental health. This impedes them from seeking help and support.

    The threat of legal sanctions for a suicide survivor, who is already experiencing severe mental anguish and emotional distress, can have serious negative repercussions. Punitive measures can worsen an individual’s mental health, increase their sense of isolation and make them more vulnerable. This heightens the risk of suicidal behaviour.

    Further, criminalisation of suicide impedes accurate data collection and prevention-related interventions. A clearer understanding of who is affected and why is critical for designing context-specific prevention strategies that use limited resources effectively.

    Kenya has made progress in developing a national suicide prevention strategy. However, several of its proposed interventions are at odds with the existing legal framework.

    This legal incompatibility hinders the government and healthcare providers from carrying out the strategy.

    Why is decriminalising suicide important?

    Decriminalising suicide safeguards individuals’ right to health by enabling them to seek care and support during times of crisis.

    It helps shift the narrative from treating attempted suicide as a criminal act to recognising it as a mental health crisis. This reduces stigma and encourages open discussions about mental health. Healthcare providers can focus on offering treatment rather than involving law enforcement. It also allows survivors to get help without fear of legal consequences or discrimination.

    Both the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Comprehensive Mental Health Action Plan aim to reduce the global suicide rate by one-third by 2030.

    As a WHO member state, Kenya is committed to achieving this target. Kenya’s suicide prevention strategy aims to reduce suicide deaths by 10% by 2026.

    What’s being done to decriminalise attempted suicide in Kenya?

    A 2020 report from a national task force on mental health emphasised the need to decriminalise attempted suicide. It also called for a national suicide registry to improve access to mental healthcare, suicide crisis support, and data on suicide and suicidal attempts. These recommendations would support the country’s suicide prevention strategy.

    In 2022, the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights filed a constitutional petition to repeal Section 226 of the penal code, deeming it unconstitutional. The petition argues that the current law violates the rights of individuals living with mental health conditions. A final judgment on this case is expected in November 2024. It would be a crucial step towards aligning Kenya’s legal framework with mental health advocacy and human rights.

    In August 2024, Lukoye Atwoli, an associate director of the Brain and Mind Institute at Kenya’s Aga Khan University, launched a petition with the national assembly calling for the decriminalisation of attempted suicide.

    These efforts reflect a growing recognition of the need to address suicide as a public health issue rather than a criminal offence.

    What needs to happen next?

    Lessons from countries like Ghana and Pakistan, which recently decriminalised suicide, emphasise the need for continued advocacy and awareness.

    A key next step is to develop an awareness programme to ensure that the shift in law (when it does happen) is accompanied by meaningful changes in practice.

    This programme should focus on training first responders – including police officers, emergency healthcare providers, mental health professionals and peer supporters – who interact with individuals at risk of suicide. Proper training will equip them with the skills to offer compassionate support, timely intervention and appropriate care. This would help ensure decriminalisation efforts translate into tangible improvements in suicide prevention and mental health care.

    Linnet Ongeri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Kenya’s laws make it a crime to attempt suicide – this hurts vulnerable people – https://theconversation.com/kenyas-laws-make-it-a-crime-to-attempt-suicide-this-hurts-vulnerable-people-240374

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Rushing or delaying decisions is linked to anxiety and depression in young people – South African study

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Eugene Lee Davids, Associate Professor, University of Pretoria

    Each day we make thousands of decisions, starting with what to have for breakfast and what to wear. We make so many decisions that we don’t keep count.

    But it’s important to understand the way we make choices. This is because the approach we take can influence our mental health.

    Over the last eight years, I’ve been researching how young people (15-25) make decisions – especially decisions that have an impact on their mental health. Mental health is a major health and social concern, shaping the lives of young people globally.

    In a recent study, I looked at whether decision-making styles contribute to anxiety and depression among young adults in South Africa.

    One style of making decisions is to evaluate all the possible options and choose the one that would lead to the best outcome. This is called vigilant decision-making.

    The second approach is to make “rushed” decisions, or to put off making a decision.

    I found that vigilant decision makers typically had lower anxiety and depression symptoms. Young adults who put off or rushed their decisions had more anxiety and depression symptoms.

    In the total study group, 37.3% were at risk of a diagnosis for major depressive disorder and 74.2% were at risk for anxiety disorder. These risks were high because rushed or delayed decision makers made up a big share of the total group.

    Understanding the impact of decision-making on mental health helps us recognise whether our choices support or undermine emotional well-being.

    High stress levels

    My research study included 1,411 young South Africans from eight of the country’s nine provinces. They each completed an online questionnaire which measured how they made decisions together with their levels of anxiety and depression symptoms. The types of questions asked included how they would rate statements such as “I like to consider all the alternatives” or “I put off making decisions”.

    The young people in the study were in a stage of development called “emerging adulthood” – between the ages of 18 and 29. Young people in this age group experience high levels of stress and uncertainty, often because of their changing role in society. They are deciding which career path to follow or taking on more adult-like roles.

    Participants in the study were at a stage of life when they could easily develop a disorder. Many mental health disorders start to develop by the age of 15. But it is estimated that by age 25 close to 63%-75% of mental health disorders would be present.

    When a person has to make a decision, time plays a big role. It can influence whether the person uses a vigilant style or a rushed approach. And that approach, in turn, can reduce or create anxiety.

    For example, if a young person needs to decide what contraceptive to use, and they have the time do a thorough search of all the possible contraceptive options and are optimistic about finding the best one, they can arrive at a decision which will be the best for them. The young person is able to evaluate all the possible options without any stress or concern about time.

    But when a concern about time arises and it results in a more rushed decision, or when a decision is delayed for a later stage because of the pressure, it is likely to lead to an increase in anxiety and depression symptoms. The decision of what degree to pursue at university, while the deadline for applying is looming, is an example.

    In the study, an advanced statistical analysis technique was used to look at the links between styles of decision-making and anxiety and depression symptoms. Using this analysis technique I was able to predict which of the styles of decision-making were linked with the anxiety and depression symptoms among the young people in the study.

    Steps to take when making decisions

    Having time on your side often allows for better choices. So it’s worth looking at some useful steps when making decisions:

    1. Identify the problem or situation clearly.

    2. Brainstorm all the possible solutions or options available.

    3. Research the pros and cons of each solution or option.

    4. Determine which of the solutions or options would result in the best outcome for you, based on the problem or situation.

    5. Then, if you are still uncertain, you could consult someone you trust and who has made good decisions previously.

    These five steps are similar to the vigilant decision-making style.

    Looking forward

    Globally, there is a gap in our understanding of mental health among young people. Studying how they make decisions allows researchers to better understand how their choices shape their mental health. It’s then possible to develop programmes that support decision-making that leads to positive mental health outcomes.

    It’s even more important today, when big trends such as the impact of climate change and the (unsafe) digital world are affecting mental health.

    Eugene Lee Davids does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Rushing or delaying decisions is linked to anxiety and depression in young people – South African study – https://theconversation.com/rushing-or-delaying-decisions-is-linked-to-anxiety-and-depression-in-young-people-south-african-study-237516

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Senegal’s female rappers aren’t letting obstacles get in their way – who the rising voices are

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Mamadou Dramé, enseignant-chercheur, Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar

    In Senegal, rap music and hip-hop culture emerged in the 1980s, driven by the urban youth. It has grown to be one of the most popular music genres in the country. But what role do female Senegalese artists play in developing and promoting hip-hop? And what challenges do they face in this male-dominated industry? Mamadou Dramé, who has done several studies on Senegalese hip-hop, answers these and other questions.

    What characterises Senegalese hip-hop?

    The year 1988 marks the beginning of rap in Senegal. After a phase of imitation, artists set themselves apart from the rest of the world by incorporating local languages such as Wolof, Serer, Pulaar and Joola alongside French and English.

    They went on to infuse Senegalese rhythms into the music by using traditional instruments like the kora, peule flute and xalam. They also started collaborating with musicians from other genres such as mbalakh, also known as mbalax (think Daara J with Youssou Ndour, PBS with Baaba Maal, Pacotille with Fatou Laobé).

    Unfortunately this originality faded by the late 1990s, particularly when it came to the use of local sounds. This followed the rise of hardcore rap – a genre marked by its intense, politically charged lyrics and rejection of making music just for fun.

    That said, Senegalese rap has always been political and socially engaged, rarely seen as art for art’s sake. As a result, rappers have influenced Senegal’s political landscape. They made raising awareness among young people a priority, helping them realise they could help shape their country’s political trajectory. In 2000, for example, hip-hop helped topple the regime of Abdou Diouf and bring about a change of government.

    What role does rap play in the popular music scene today?

    Rap has played a crucial role in the local music scene in Senegal. At one point, it was the most listened to and widely performed genre in the country. Radio stations dedicated prime afternoon slots for rap shows to build their reputations. Artists who understood the importance of rappers and their ability to mobilise young people often created duets with them or used them as opening acts for their concerts.



    Read more:
    Hip hop and Pan Africanism: from Blitz the Ambassador to Beyoncé

    Rappers have also shown that music can be a pathway to entrepreneurship. Many rappers have developed side ventures and business structures to generate income, in the process making a positive impact on the lives of young people in their communities. This is why it’s more common in Senegal to find rappers as opinion leaders than artists from other genres. For example, Malal Talla, known by his stage name Fou Malade (Crazy Sick), has become a prominent figure in the broadcasting landscape and is regularly invited to comment on current political issues.

    When it comes to pan-Africanism, Didier Awadi is a sought after voice. In the realm of youth employment and training, rapper Amadou Fall Ba has played such a pivotal role that Dakar’s city council was able to establish the Maison des Cultures Urbaines, which works closely with Guédiawaye Hip Hop, a collective of rappers.

    Women are reported to be emerging in rap. What is the current situation?

    For a long time, the rap scene was very misogynistic, with a very minimal female presence. There have been female rappers like Fatim de BMG 44, Sister Yaki in the group Timtimol, and Syster Joyce, to name a few. However, apart from a few like Fatim, women have often played second fiddle or been confined to the role of backing singers.

    There have been attempts to form all-female groups, such as Alif (Attaque Libératrice pour l’Infanterie Féministe), but many either left rap or music altogether, or transitioned to other genres. In recent years, we are witnessing Senegalese women asserting themselves in rap and taking on leading roles. While their numbers are still small compared to men, they are certainly present and making their mark.

    Which female voices stand out?

    We could mention Mounaaya, who is very well known. She’s been in the business for a very long time. Toussa is from the same generation. She’s famous for her song Rap bou Djigene bi (Female Rap).

    Mamy Victory rose to prominence by winning Best Female Artist 2016 at Senegal’s Galsen Hip Hop Awards. There’s also OMG, who was a double finalist for the Prix Découvertes RFI reality singing competition in 2019. She was also named Best Female Artist at the 2018 Galsen awards.

    What challenges do women rappers face?

    For a long time, women have been subjected to prejudices and social pressures. The negative perception surrounding rap in its early days did not make things any easier. Navigating a predominantly male environment has been challenging for young women. Parents often wouldn’t allow their daughters to associate with men, especially since many events take place at night.

    Women face many biases and social judgements that have caused them to drop out of music. Many are expected to marry and take on family responsibilities rather than make rap. These are all obstacles that make it difficult for women to maintain a permanent presence in hip-hop.

    However, female rappers are gradually carving out their space. While they still have a long way to go due to their relatively small numbers, they are not backing down; instead they are increasingly asserting their talent and individuality.

    Mamadou Dramé does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Senegal’s female rappers aren’t letting obstacles get in their way – who the rising voices are – https://theconversation.com/senegals-female-rappers-arent-letting-obstacles-get-in-their-way-who-the-rising-voices-are-240237

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trad wives hearken back to an imagined past of white Christian womanhood

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Brandi Estey-Burtt, Fellow with the Centre for Interdisciplinary Research on Narrative; part-time lecturer in English Literature, St. Thomas University (Canada)

    As with many social media trends, trad wives have sparked debate and criticism about their content and who it is meant for. (Flickr/SportSuburban), CC BY

    If you’ve been on TikTok or Instagram recently, you’ve likely come across trad wives. The trend features videos of young women influencers showcasing their domestic lives as trad or “traditional” wives.

    The clips see them performing domestic activities that have traditionally been seen as the role of wives and mothers: taking care of the home, raising children, baking from scratch and even homesteading.

    As with many social media trends, #tradwife has sparked debate and criticism about the content and who it is meant for. There have been attempts to chart the origins and history of the trad wives, their nostalgia for the past and their highly estheticized content.

    There are connections to “momfluencers,” the “girl bosses” of the early 2010s and a general backlash against capitalism and the demands for feminized labour. However, there is an equally strong link to fundamentalist Christianity and concerns about white womanhood.

    As scrutiny grows, especially given the uproar caused by the recent profile of trad wife Hannah Neeleman, also known as Ballerina Farm, one other connection bears consideration: Christian romance fiction.

    Many of the characters of this genre of fiction display key qualities of trad wives.

    In recent decades, Christian evangelicals have used cultural tools such as fiction and now social media to romanticize the lifestyle of white, westernized femininity. The stories often contain an emphasis on restricted public and domestic roles for women based on narrow ideas of biblical womanhood. In this way, such characters can be viewed as cultural predecessors to the trad wives.

    Christian romance and purity

    Mostly marketed to women, the genre gained ground with the publication of Canadian author Janette Oke’s first historical romance novel in 1979. The market for such fiction rapidly expanded, and the genre developed as consumer appetite grew. For example, Amish and Mennonite sub-genres have become very popular since American novelist Beverly Lewis began publishing in the late 1990s.

    Though the genre of Christian romance fiction (or inspiration fiction as it is sometimes called) spans many different sub-genres and historical periods, it contains repeated themes about personal faith, sexual purity and heterosexual marriage. These themes encode gender and racial overtones within stories that focus predominantly on white women characters.

    The sexual norms of these stories are not surprising, given longstanding Christian evangelical interest in how religious and sexual purity are meshed together.

    Purity culture sets out highly prescriptive notions of sex, sexuality and gender roles. Scholars of religion such as Sara Moslener tie these norms directly to white Christian nationalist ideas of femininity. Religious notions of sexual purity become linked to racial purity through a concern for maintaining the integrity of the body of the white woman as well as the body of the nation against the threat of racialized others.

    It’s no surprise that both Christian romance fiction and trad wives are overwhelmingly white, and that a number of trad wives have been documented as possessing links to the far right.

    Romanticizing a mythical past

    Theology professor Emily McGowin has noted how the “tradwife trend looks to a mythic past where everyone knew their role.” Writer Kathryn Jezer-Morton points out that trad wives uphold a romanticized notion of the past that is actually a fantasy. They often wear outfits that look like they are from the 1950s or a previous colonial era, and there is no clear definition of what the “trad wife” label is.

    What and whose tradition are these fantasies representing? Certainly not all women, including many racialized and poor women who have never had the option of staying home. This nostalgic re-imagining of a very complex past whitewashes history and ignores how women had few legal or reproductive rights over their own bodies, finances or domestic lives.

    So, too, have Christian romances fantasized about different historical moments, often in American history. There is a decidedly white Christian supremacist undertone to many of these stories. They often reiterate the goodness of westward expansionism in North America and erase (or use as a plot device) the physical and cultural genocide of Indigenous peoples across the continent. This is also true of Oke’s work, which features “pioneer” (settler) narratives and romanticizes the RCMP, a problem that continues in television adaptations of her books.

    The Amish and Mennonite sub-genre further romanticizes what non-Amish and non-Mennonite authors portray as pre-modern (or even anti-modern) lifestyles. In these novels, there is little technology, an emphasis on agrarianism and homesteading, and hardly any physical contact among potential couples.

    As one reviewer who grew up Amish puts it, at times it feels like romance writers and readers “superimpose their values on the Amish.” In other words, many Christian romance novels offer feel-good fantasies about an imagined past. This fantasy has little basis in how women — especially women of colour and Indigenous women — experienced those historical periods.

    Like the social media accounts of trad wives, the sub-genre focuses on the aesthetics of a lifestyle rather than the very real legal, domestic, financial and racial implications of that life for women.

    Marketing romance — and tradition

    Romance fiction is often mocked as not being “serious” literature, but romance writers or readers are not necessarily passive or ignorant. Readers consume romances for a vast array of complex reasons, their faith or their relationships to romantic partners being only part of the mix.

    However, the Christian romance genre is a publishing and marketing phenomenon, one that has sold millions upon millions of copies across North America alone. These romance novels are sold not just in niche Christian bookstores but in big box stores — even grocery store check-outs.

    As Historian Daniel Silliman notes, the romance fiction genre was part of a larger Christian publishing boom that began in the 1950s in the United States. Fiction became an integral part of evangelical identity and an imagined community. It also played a crucial role in how evangelicals engaged with broader theological, cultural and political currents, though scholars question whether fiction shaped or reflected this engagement.

    Their concerns about cultural change — be it sexual, demographic, or otherwise — influence their fiction. Literature and religion professor Christopher Douglas makes the crucial point that evangelical Christians don’t just “get their knowledge primarily through fact sheets or decontextualized data, but rather through the power of narrative.”

    Christian romance fiction may not have caused the current iteration of trad wives, but its highly visible place in popular culture deserves greater scrutiny. These romance stories have contributed to ideas of westernized femininity that are notably white and decidedly constraining. They also provide romanticized visions of the past that lay a fictional groundwork for the appeal, and wide acceptance, that trad wives now enjoy on social media.

    Brandi Estey-Burtt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trad wives hearken back to an imagined past of white Christian womanhood – https://theconversation.com/trad-wives-hearken-back-to-an-imagined-past-of-white-christian-womanhood-239999

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Opt-out laws designed to make organ donation easier may have actually made it harder, says research

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Leah McLaughlin, Research Officer in School of Health Sciences, Bangor University

    In 2020, England introduced an opt-out system for organ donation with the aim of making it easier for organs to be donated after a person’s death. The Organ Donation (Deemed Consent) Act 2019 assumed that unless someone explicitly opted out, they consented to organ donation.

    This change was expected to boost the number of organ donations and, ultimately, save more lives. But research by my colleagues and I reveals a different story. Rather than simplifying organ donation, the law has created more confusion and complications. This may help explain why organ donation rates haven’t recovered from the drop seen during the pandemic.

    Before the change in the law, organ donation in England required people to opt in to the system by registering their consent. With the new system, unless adults over the age of 18 opt out, their consent is presumed. The law is however “soft”. Families are supposed to support the decision, but can still override it, if they disagree, without consequence.

    The law, introduced during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, was meant to increase donation rates by shifting the burden from individuals needing to sign up to individuals needing to declare they didn’t want to donate organs or tissue. Similar laws had already been implemented in Wales in 2015 and later in Scotland in 2021.

    But the results haven’t lived up to expectations. Consent rates for organ donation in England have dropped since the law came into effect, from 67% in 2019 to 61% in 2023. The same has happened in Wales where donation rates have reduced from 63% to 60.5%, and in Scotland where rates have dropped from 63.6% to 56.3%.

    This drop coincided with the spread of COVID-19, and it’s difficult to untangle the consequences of the change in the law with the lasting effects of the pandemic on how people interact with health services. But it does mean that potential organ donors don’t necessarily leave explicit instructions that they wish to donate, which may affect how their families, and the healthcare staff responsible for implementing the law, feel.

    Our research involved interviewing the families of potential organ donors and healthcare professionals involved in the process. We found that many families still said they wanted to be the final decision-makers, even though the law presumed their loved one’s consent. This reflects the potential for confusion and stress at an already difficult time.

    What went wrong?

    An important issue is that the deemed consent law challenges the longstanding norm in healthcare that emphasises explicit consent, and particularly the role of familial consent. This divergence from established ethical practices has placed healthcare professionals in a difficult position. They now face a dilemma – they want to respect the law and increase organ donations, but they also risk being perceived as overstepping ethical boundaries by “taking organs” without clear family consent.

    This fear of being seen as disregarding the emotions and rights of bereaved families has led to a high level of risk aversion among those responsible for implementing the law. Consequently, the processes involved in obtaining consent have become increasingly complex and cautious. This has undermined the law’s original purpose.

    A sympathetic understanding of this situation is crucial, however. The risk-averse stance adopted by official bodies is not a failure of intention but a reflection of the ethical and emotional complexities surrounding organ donation.

    Well-meaning legal changes, while theoretically sound, have encountered practical challenges that stem from the need to balance the law with respect for the sensitivities of grieving families.

    The anticipated increase in organ donation has not materialised. Although the pandemic may have played a role in this, our research suggests that legislative changes alone are insufficient without addressing the underlying ethical tensions and the need for clear, compassionate communication with families during such difficult times.

    Many families we spoke with didn’t fully understand the concept of deemed consent. This is where a decision to donate is assumed unless a person has actively opted out. In some cases, families struggled with the idea of their loved one undergoing surgery, losing sight of the potential lives saved through organ donation.

    The process was also overwhelming. Families were faced with complex consent paperwork and lengthy procedures, adding to the emotional burden of losing a loved one.

    shutterstock.
    Kmpzzz/Shutterstock

    What needs to change?

    Our research suggests several possible ways to improve the system. Better public understanding is vital. Clearer public education campaigns are needed to explain to people how the opt-out system works and to healthcare providers the importance of discussing organ donation decisions with family members. Many people still don’t understand that if they don’t opt out, they are presumed to have given consent.

    The process needs to be simplified too. Reducing the steps involved in “consenting” to organ donation would help ease the burden on grieving families.

    Strengthening donor decisions may also help the situation. Giving more legal weight to decisions made in life, such as registration on the Organ Donor Register, could prevent families from overturning their loved ones’ wishes.

    It’s important that healthcare professionals are trained appropriately. Nurses and doctors need better training to navigate the complexities of the law so they can help families during organ donation discussions.

    And regular prompts encouraging people to update their organ donation preferences may help to ensure that families are aware of their loved ones’ wishes, reducing confusion at critical moments. Only then can we hope to increase organ donation rates and fulfil the goal of saving more lives.

    Leah McLaughlin receives funding from National Institute Health Research (NIHR) and Health and Care Research Wales (HCRW).

    – ref. Opt-out laws designed to make organ donation easier may have actually made it harder, says research – https://theconversation.com/opt-out-laws-designed-to-make-organ-donation-easier-may-have-actually-made-it-harder-says-research-228708

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: As an ethical hacker, I can’t believe the risks people routinely take when they access the internet in public

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Christopher Patrick Hawkins, Lecturer in Cyber Security and Computer Science, University of Staffordshire

    In the modern world we are all constantly connected, but this comes with risks. As most cybersecurity specialists will tell you, the biggest vulnerability in any system is the user – whether at home or work.

    The most common ways in which hackers break into systems are via attacks on users such as phishing, rather than by breaching technical infrastructure. As much as 94% of all malware is delivered via email, while phishing is the primary means of attack in 41% of all incidents. This risk is also increasing, with 75% of security experts reporting an overall rise in cyberattacks year on year in 2023.

    Many corporate IT teams have been spending heavily on training users to be more wary of such attacks. However, this has tended to focus on best practice in the workplace. In public areas, where people’s guards might be lowered, it’s quite a different story.

    I’ve recently seen several examples of this for myself. As a certified ethical hacker with years of experience in cybersecurity and contributing to cybercriminal investigations, I can’t tell you how easy it is for these kinds of situations to be exploited by bad actors.

    In the first incident, I was in a shop buying some household items. While I queued, staff were asking customers for email addresses to send them e-receipts for their items.

    This might sound innocent, and it’s surely better for the environment than paper receipts, but it could easily be exploited by a savvy hacker who might be listening. Combined with contextual information such as location, item and cost, they could craft a phishing email that would probably fool most people. It could be an invite to complete a feedback survey, for instance, or a discount code for their next visit to the same store.

    On another occasion I was at a live concert. While we waited for the show to begin, an individual in front of me was browsing his phone. From observing for just a short time, I ascertained his name, job, address, vehicle, phone number and even bank balance. Again, this could have been used by a hacker in a number of malicious ways, including posing as the individual to steal their identity or even coercing them to act against their employer, say by threatening to reveal sensitive information.

    We therefore all need to be mindful of the information that we are exposing to strangers when we are in public. Equally, we need to think about what devices we are using, and what we are connecting them to.

    Unsecured network risks

    While at the same concert, I saw numerous people connecting to the stadium wifi, which was totally unprotected and required no authentication. When you log in to an unsecured network, it exposes your device to risks such as evil twin attacks.

    Evil twin attacks involve the attacker creating a wifi hotspot, which can be set to any name they choose, such as “stadium wifi 2” or whatever. When an unprotected device connects to this network, the attacker can potentially steal the data they are transmitting.

    It can also be used for other nefarious purposes such as snooping on confidential networks, injecting malware into downloads or “man-in-the-middle” attacks in which the hacker poses as the other person in a communication, again usually to steal information.

    People can be exposed to similar threats on unsecured networks through another hacking ruse known as packet sniffing. This is where a hacker uses a program to monitor the data moving over the network and steal information.

    Connecting now …
    Alexander Supertramp

    You can avoid these risks by logging in from a virtual private network (VPN), not that I saw anyone doing that at the concert. More generally, people can protect themselves from identity theft by, for instance, having anti-phishing systems in their inboxes.

    However, the easiest defence of all is to be alert to the risks and take sensible precautions in public. By protecting your data and devices, no matter where you are, you can avoid becoming one of the victims.

    Christopher Patrick Hawkins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. As an ethical hacker, I can’t believe the risks people routinely take when they access the internet in public – https://theconversation.com/as-an-ethical-hacker-i-cant-believe-the-risks-people-routinely-take-when-they-access-the-internet-in-public-240599

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tackling the UK’s housing crisis means addressing one key problem: affordability

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul Anand, Professor of Economics, The Open University

    Jevanto Productions/Shutterstock

    The UK government has serious ambition when it comes to solving England’s housing crisis. Shortly after the 2024 general election, it pledged to build 1.5 million new homes over the next five years.

    It’s a big plan which could help improve the quality of life of millions of people. But is such an ambitious target plausible? Or has the government created a rod for its own back, and embarked on an economic mission that is doomed to failure?

    For, at the heart of this mission is a political desire to shape the direction of the economy. And to succeed, this desire needs to be matched with a clear understanding of the economic reality at the heart of the UK’s housing crisis – a reality that is all about affordability.

    To be successful, housing policies aimed at helping those on lower incomes need to address this head on. But the government’s emphasis so far has been on “zoning” (allowing houses to be built on land which was previously protected), or speeding up the planning process and tackling nimbyism. All of these factors are distractions from the main and simple point – that too many people simply cannot afford to buy, or even rent, a decent home.

    And while there has been some suggestion that a bigger proportion of new housing projects need to be affordable, details have been scant.

    Instead, most of the talk has been about “greybelt zones”, where planning permission will be granted more easily and quickly to create new opportunities for house building. But it is far from clear this will help to bring down – or even stabilise – the costs of housing.

    Obtaining planning permission is a small fraction of that total cost. And when these permissions are granted, the value of land rises. The landowner makes money, but the hopeful future house buyer or tenant gains nothing, other than the fact there are extra houses on the market.

    Imposing a requirement for higher proportions of affordable housing from building companies might be the single most effective thing the government can do. However, those companies may then increase their margins on the larger houses they plan to sell. And higher prices for bigger homes raises demand – and then prices – for smaller ones.

    If the government wants to tackle the affordability issue by increasing supply, it should note that just over half the costs of new housing are down to expensive construction. The use of modern pre-fabricated methods to help reduce those costs is still relatively low in the UK.

    Sweden uses this approach for over 80% of its new house building, and a faster switch (with government persuasion) to more affordable building methods in the UK could be beneficial.

    An expensive business.
    Clare Louise Jackson/Shutterstock

    More new towns have also been promised. They’re not a bad idea, but building them takes a very long time, so any contribution they make to the housing crisis will take years (decades even) to be seen.

    Local knowledge

    The government has already announced a series of house-building targets for local areas as part of its five-year plan. But this adds a further complication, in a classic example of regional planning being done from Westminster instead of locally. How do they know that these houses will be built where people actually want to live?

    For a good sense of where people do want to live, the government could immediately turn to housing associations – private, non-profit making organisations that already provide low-cost housing to millions. There might be some mileage in seeking to boost their stock by encouraging – and even underwriting – further borrowing by them.

    Typically, housing associations charge significantly lower rents as they are not focused on making a return for shareholders, and their long-term stability attracts lower borrowing costs. If the government’s promised increase in the UK’s housing stock leads to an expansion in the housing association sector, this could make a meaningful contribution to limiting the rents paid by those on lower incomes – and enhancing the potential for them to eventually buy a genuinely affordable home.

    But for many others, the biggest hurdle over the coming years will be mortgage rates. Even if interest rates come down gradually over the next five years, this is unlikely to make much difference to those who cannot afford a mortgage. And it won’t happen quickly enough to conjure up 1.5 million new homeowners in five years.

    It seems doubtful then, that the government will reach its target, however laudible. But if it is to stand a chance, it needs to be thoughtful in its economics. Merely setting targets and expressing frustration when they are not met – as they are unlikely to be – is not enough.

    Paul Anand owns shares in Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon, Barratt Development and Rathbones Global Opportunity Fund.
    He is a professor at the Open University and research associate at Oxford University.

    – ref. Tackling the UK’s housing crisis means addressing one key problem: affordability – https://theconversation.com/tackling-the-uks-housing-crisis-means-addressing-one-key-problem-affordability-239051

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Flooded industrial sites and toxic chemical releases are a silent, growing threat in hurricanes like Milton and Helene

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By James R. Elliott, Professor of Sociology, Rice University

    An industrial storage tank overturned by Hurricane Helene in Asheville, N.C., shows the power of fast-moving floodwater. Sean Rayford/Getty Images

    Hundreds of industrial facilities with toxic pollutants are in Hurricane Milton’s path as it heads toward Florida, less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene flooded communities across the Southeast.

    Milton, expected to make landfall as a major hurricane late on Oct. 9, is bearing down on boat and spa factories along Florida’s west-central coast, along with the rubber, plastics and fiberglass manufacturers that supply them. Many of these facilities use tens of thousands of registered contaminants each year, including toluene, styrene and other chemicals known to have adverse effects on the central nervous system with prolonged exposure.

    Farther inland, hundreds more manufacturers that use and house hazardous chemicals onsite lie along the Interstate 4 and Interstate 75 corridors and their feeder roads. And many are in the path of the storm’s intense winds and heavy rainfall.

    Black dots indicate facilities in EPA’s 2022 Toxic Release Inventory within Hurricane Milton’s projected impact zone.
    Rice University Center for Coastal Futures and Adaptive Resilience, CC BY-ND

    Helene’s heavy rainfall in late September 2024 flooded industrial sites across the Southeast. A retired nuclear power plant just south of Cedar Key, Florida, was flooded by Helene’s storm surge.

    In disasters like these, the industrial damage can unfold over days, and residents may not hear about releases of toxic chemicals into water or the air until days or weeks later, if they find out at all.

    Yet pollution releases are common.

    After Hurricane Ian broadsided Florida’s western coast in 2022, runoff that included hazardous materials from damaged storage tanks and local fertilizer mining facilities, in addition to millions of gallons of wastewater, was visible from space, spilling across the coastal wetlands into the Gulf of Mexico. A year earlier, Hurricane Ida triggered more than 2,000 reported chemical spills.

    During Hurricane Harvey in 2017, floodwater surrounded chemical facilities near Houston. Some caught fire as cooling systems failed, releasing huge volumes or pollutants into the air. Emergency responders and residents, who didn’t know what risks they might face, blamed the chemicals for causing respiratory illnesses.

    Many types of toxic material can spread, settle and change the long-term health and environmental safety of surrounding communities – often with little notice to residents. Our team of environmental sociologists and anthropologists has mapped hazardous industrial sites across the country and paired them with hurricanes’ projected impact maps to help communities hold nearby facilities accountable.

    Major polluters on Gulf Coast at high risk”

    The risks from industrial facilities are most obvious along the U.S. Gulf Coast, where many major petrochemical complexes are clustered in harm’s way. These refineries, factories and storage facilities are often built along rivers or bays for easy shipping access.

    But those rivers can also bring storm surge flooding that can raise the ocean by several feet during hurricanes. The storm surge from Helene was over 10 feet above ground level in Florida’s Big Bend and over 6 feet in Tampa Bay. With Milton, forecasters warning of a 10- to 15-foot storm surge at Tampa Bay.

    A boom surrounds flooded railcars to try to contain leaks at a chemical plant in Braithwaite, La., after Hurricane Isaac in 2012.
    AP Photo/David J. Phillip

    A recent study found evidence of two to three times more pollution releases during hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico than during normal weather from 2005 to 2020.

    The effects of these pollution releases fall disproportionately on low-income communities and people of color, further exacerbating environmental health risks.

    Why residents may not hear about toxic releases

    The statistics are disconcerting, yet they get little attention. That is because hazardous releases remain largely invisible due to limited disclosure requirements and scant public information. Even emergency responders often don’t know exactly which hazardous chemicals they are facing in emergency situations.

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requires major polluters to file only very general information about chemicals and on-site risks in their risk management plans. Some large-scale fuel storage facilities, such as those holding liquefied natural gas, are not even required to do that.

    These risk management plans outline “worst-case” scenarios and are supposed to be publicly accessible. But, in reality, we and others have found them difficult to access, heavily redacted and housed in federal reading rooms with limited access. The reason local officials and national scientific review panels often give for the secrecy is to protect the facilities from terrorist attack.

    Oil storage tanks and industrial facilities line the Houston Ship Channel, which is vulnerable to storm surge from Gulf of Mexico hurricanes.
    AP Photo/David J. Phillip

    Adding to this opacity is the fact that many states – including those along the Gulf – suspend restrictions on pollution releases during emergency declarations. Meanwhile, real-time incident notifications from the National Response Center – the federal government’s repository for all chemical discharges into the environment – typically lag by a week or more,

    We believe this limited public information on rising chemical threats from our changing climate should be front-page news every hurricane season. Communities should be aware of the risks of hosting vulnerable industrial infrastructure, particularly as rising global temperatures increase the risk of extreme downpours and powerful hurricanes.

    Mapping the risks nationwide to raise awareness

    To help communities understand their risks, our team at Rice University’s new Center for Coastal Futures and Adaptive Resilience investigates how industrial communities in flood-prone areas nationwide can better adapt to such threats, socially as well as technologically.

    Our interactive map shows where elevated future flood risks threaten to inundate major polluters that we identify using the EPA’s Toxic Release Inventory.

    The U.S. has several hot spots with clusters of flood-prone polluters. Houston’s Ship Channel, Chicago’s waterfront steel industries and the harbors at Los Angeles and New York/New Jersey are among the biggest.

    Three of the biggest hot spots, where large numbers of industrial facilities with toxic materials face elevated future flood risks, are in the Northeast, the northwestern Gulf Coast and the southern end of the Great Lakes.
    Rice University Center for Coastal Futures and Adaptive Resilience, CC BY-ND

    But, as Helene revealed, there can also be great concern in less obvious spots. Inland, particularly in the mountains, runoff can quickly turn normally tame rivers into fast-rising torrents. The French Broad River at Asheville, North Carolina, rose about 12 feet in 12 hours during Helene and set a new flood stage record.

    When hurricanes and tropical storms are headed for the U.S., our interactive maps show where major polluters are located in the storm’s projected cone of impact. The maps identify hazardous flood-prone facilities down to the address, anywhere in the country.

    Knowledge is the first step

    Knowing where these sites are located is only the first step. Often, it’s up to communities themselves, many of them already overexposed and historically underserved, to raise concerns and demand strategies for mitigating the health, economic and environmental risks that industrial sites at risk of flooding and other damage can pose.

    These discussions can’t wait until a disaster is on the way. By knowing where these risks may be, communities can take steps now to build a safer future.

    This article, originally published Sept. 30, has been updated with Hurricane Milton.

    James R. Elliott receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Renewable Energy Lab.

    Dominic Boyer receives funding from the National Science Foundation, NOAA and Texas Sea Grant.

    Phylicia Lee Brown has nothing to disclose.

    – ref. Flooded industrial sites and toxic chemical releases are a silent, growing threat in hurricanes like Milton and Helene – https://theconversation.com/flooded-industrial-sites-and-toxic-chemical-releases-are-a-silent-growing-threat-in-hurricanes-like-milton-and-helene-239977

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Hurricane Milton explodes into a powerful Category 5 storm as it heads for Florida − here’s how rapid intensification works

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Zachary Handlos, Atmospheric Science Educator, Georgia Institute of Technology

    Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified into a dangerous Category 5 hurricane on Oct. 7, 2024, as it headed across the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida. Twenty-four hours earlier, it was barely a Category 1 storm.

    As its wind speed increased, Milton became one of the most rapidly intensifying storms on record. And with 180 mph sustained winds and very low pressure, it also became one of the strongest storms on the planet in 2024.

    Less than two weeks after Hurricane Helene’s devastating impact, this kind of storm was the last thing Florida wanted to see. Hurricane Milton was expected to make landfall as a major hurricane late on Oct. 9 or early Oct. 10 and had already prompted widespread evacuations.

    Hurricane Milton’s projected storm track, as of midday Oct. 7, 2024, shows how quickly it grew from formation into a major hurricane (M). Storm tracks are projections, and Milton’s path could shift as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The cone is a probable path and does not reflect the storm’s size.
    National Hurricane Center

    So, what exactly is rapid intensification, and what does global climate change have to do with it? We research hurricane behavior and teach meteorology. Here’s what you need to know.

    What is rapid intensification?

    Rapid intensification is defined by the National Weather Service as an increase in a tropical cyclone’s maximum sustained wind speed of at least 30 knots – about 35 mph within a 24-hour period. That increase can be enough to escalate a storm from Category 1 to Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

    Milton’s wind speed went from 80 mph to 175 mph from 1 p.m. Sunday to 1 p.m. Monday, and its pressure dropped from 988 millibars to 911.

    The National Hurricane Center had been warning that Milton was likely to become a major hurricane, but this kind of rapid intensification can catch people off guard, especially when it occurs close to landfall.

    Hurricane Michael did billions of dollars in damage in 2018 when it rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm just before hitting near Tyndall Air Force Base in the Florida Panhandle. In 2023, Hurricane Otis’ maximum wind speed increased by 100 mph in less than 24 hours before it hit Acapulco, Mexico. Hurricane Ian also rapidly intensified in 2022 before hitting just south of where Milton is projected to cross Florida.

    What causes hurricanes to rapidly intensify?

    Rapid intensification is difficult to forecast, but there are a few driving forces.

    • Ocean heat: Warm sea surface temperatures, particularly when they extend into deeper layers of warm water, provide the energy necessary for hurricanes to intensify. The deeper the warm water, the more energy a storm can draw upon, enhancing its strength.
    Sea surface temperatures have been warm in the Gulf of Mexico, where Hurricane Milton was crossing just northwest of the tip of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Oct. 7, 2024. A temperature of 30 degrees Celsius is equivalent to 86 degrees Fahrenheit.
    NOAA

    • Low wind shear: Strong vertical wind shear – a rapid change in wind speed or direction with height – can disrupt a storm’s organization, while low wind shear allows hurricanes to grow more rapidly. In Milton’s case, the atmospheric conditions were particularly conducive to rapid intensification.

    • Moisture: Higher sea surface temperatures and lower salinity increase the amount of moisture available to storms, fueling rapid intensification. Warmer waters provide the heat needed for moisture to evaporate, while lower salinity helps trap that heat near the surface. This allows more sustained heat and moisture to transfer to the storm, driving faster and stronger intensification.

    • Thunderstorm activity: Internal dynamics, such as bursts of intense thunderstorms within a cyclone’s rotation, can reorganize a cyclone’s circulation and lead to rapid increases in strength, even when the other conditions aren’t ideal.

    Research has found that globally, a majority of hurricanes Category 3 and above tend to undergo rapid intensification within their lifetimes.

    How does global warming influence hurricane strength?

    If it seems as though you’ve been hearing about rapid intensification a lot more in recent years, that’s in part because it’s happening more often.

    The annual number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean that achieved rapid intensification each year between 1980-2023 shows an upward trend.
    Climate Central, CC BY-ND

    A 2023 study investigating connections between rapid intensification and climate change found an increase in the number of tropical cyclones experiencing rapid intensification over the past four decades. That includes a significant rise in the number of hurricanes that rapidly intensify multiple times during their development. Another analysis comparing trends from 1982 to 2017 with climate model simulations found that natural variability alone could not explain these increases in rapidly intensifying storms, indicating a likely role of human-induced climate change.

    How future climate change will affect hurricanes is an active area of research. As global temperatures and oceans continue to warm, however, the frequency of major hurricanes is projected to increase. The extreme hurricanes of recent years, including Beryl in June 2024 and Helene, are already raising alarms about the intensifying impact of warming on tropical cyclone behavior.

    Zachary Handlos receives funding from the National Science Foundation. He is affiliated with the American Meteorological Society as the incoming chair of their Board on Higher Education. He is also an academic faculty partner of the Georgia Climate Project.

    Ali Sarhadi receives funding from NSF and Georgia Tech.

    – ref. Hurricane Milton explodes into a powerful Category 5 storm as it heads for Florida − here’s how rapid intensification works – https://theconversation.com/hurricane-milton-explodes-into-a-powerful-category-5-storm-as-it-heads-for-florida-heres-how-rapid-intensification-works-240754

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: When medicines don’t work: eliminating neglected tropical diseases will reduce drug resistance – a win for all

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Francisca Mutapi, Professor in Global Health Infection and Immunity. and co-Director of the Global Health Academy, University of Edinburgh

    A major health challenge of our time is when drugs no longer work to treat infections. This happens when the agents that cause infections – they may be bacteria, viruses or fungi – become resistant to the drugs.

    Antimicrobials are a broad range of medications that act on microbes – like bacteria, fungi, viruses, or parasites. Antibiotics, for instance, are one type of antimicrobial working against bacteria.

    Resistance to antimicrobial drugs therefore makes it difficult to treat and prevent a wide range of infections.

    Antibiotic resistance compromises public health programmes, such as TB treatments. It can also compromise other medical interventions where treatment is needed to prevent infection, like surgery, caesarean sections or cancer treatment.

    The main causes of antimicrobial resistance are the misuse and overuse of antimicrobials in humans, animals and plants.

    Antimicrobial resistance leads to more deaths and illness in Africa compared to anywhere else. The continent recorded 21% of the global antimicrobial resistance related deaths in 2019. In that year, over 1.05 million deaths in Africa were associated with antimicrobial resistance. This poses an exceptional health threat.

    Worryingly, antimicrobial resistance related deaths are predicted to increase globally. The trend is already being observed in Africa. For example, the latest data shows that the share of E. coli infections resistant to cephalosporins (the antibiotic used to treat them) is rising.

    To change this, it’s necessary to reduce the burden of diseases that require antimicrobial treatment.

    One group of infectious diseases prevalent in Africa are the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). There are already effective tools to prevent and even eliminate them. But every year, millions of people are infected and treated for them using antimicrobials. This increases the risk of spreading resistance.

    Having been involved in the design and implementation of large-scale neglected tropical diseases control programmes, I argue for a push to eliminate these diseases. This must be done through integrated approaches, including preventive medicine, water and sanitation, and controlling the agents that spread the diseases.

    Even countries where neglected tropical diseases are not common should make this push, as part of global health security.

    Controlling neglected tropical diseases

    Neglected tropical diseases are a group of 21 diverse conditions capable of causing long term health and economic challenges.

    They are caused by a variety of pathogens including worms, bacteria, fungi and viruses. Of these diseases, six are treated with antibiotics: buruli ulcer, leishmaniasis, leprosy, onchocerciasis, trachoma and yaws.

    Globally, millions of people with neglected tropical diseases are treated with antimicrobials every year.

    One of the most effective public health approaches for controlling neglected tropical diseases is preventative chemotherapy, which involves mass drug administration, where people are treated without diagnosis. Nonetheless, it is not sustainable, both in terms of cost and because it increases the risk of antimicrobial resistance.

    However, preventative chemotherapy is a necessary and effective tool for reducing infection and disease. Since 2012, over 600 million people have been cured of neglected tropical disease infection this way.

    An example of this is Zimbabwe’s control programme for schistosomiasis (an acute disease caused by parasitic worms), which I’ve been involved with. Preventative chemotherapy was administered to about 5 million children every year between 2012 and 2019. Infection levels were reduced from 32% to just under 2% in children aged 6-15.

    The latest World Health Organization report from 2022 indicated that just under 1.7 billion people globally required preventative chemotherapy. Of these just under 600 million are in Africa.

    Another risk for an increase in antimicrobial resistance is that the antibiotics used to treat neglected tropical diseases are also used to treat other infections. For example, azithromycin (for treating trachoma and yaws) is used also to treat other bacterial infections including bronchitis, pneumonia and sexually transmitted diseases.

    Already, of the six neglected tropical diseases that are treated with antibiotics, five have documented drug resistance. This trend will only increase.

    It’s therefore vital that neglected tropical diseases are eliminated so that fewer antibiotics and antimicrobials are used. This also protects people from other dangerous infections.

    Ready-made tools

    The good news is that the tools to eliminate neglected tropical diseases already exist.

    Within the past decade, 51 countries have eliminated at least one neglected tropical disease. Underlying these successes are the use of multiple tools, cross-sectoral strategies and sustained efforts to prevent and treat infections.

    ”>

    In the case of diseases which are transmitted by animals or insects (vectors), it’s about controlling the vector. For instance, killing the flies that transmit onchocerciasis parasites or snail hosts for schistosomiasis.

    Similarly, provision of safe water and sanitation facilities is critical for disease elimination. For example, the organisms that cause some diseases spend some stages of their life in faeces (poop). So, when faeces are poorly disposed of, they can contaminate the environment and the disease can be passed on.

    The World Health Organization has set a target of 100 countries eliminating at least one neglected tropical disease by 2030.

    This would be a massive health and economic win for countries where the diseases are prevalent.

    It will also lead to a reduction in antimicrobial use – which is a vital global health goal.

    Francisca Mutapi receives funding from the Aspen Global Innovation Programme, Scottish Funding Council funding to the University of Edinburgh, Academy of Medical Sciences, British Academy and the Royal Society.
    Francisca Mutapi is the Deputy Director of the Tackling Infections to Benefit Africa (TIBA) Partnership and Deputy Board Chair of Uniting to Combat NTDS

    – ref. When medicines don’t work: eliminating neglected tropical diseases will reduce drug resistance – a win for all – https://theconversation.com/when-medicines-dont-work-eliminating-neglected-tropical-diseases-will-reduce-drug-resistance-a-win-for-all-239658

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A geomagnetic storm has hit Earth – a space scientist explains what causes them

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Amoré Elsje Nel, Applied Geomagnetic Researcher, South African National Space Agency

    Geomagnetic storms bring vibrant colours to life in some parts of the world. Christopher Mark Juhn/Anadolu via Getty Images

    A geomagnetic storm lit up the night sky in parts of the US during the first weekend in October. South Africa’s National Space Agency (Sansa) told reporters that the storm had originated from a solar flare “that erupted from sunspot 3842 on October 3”. It said this was the strongest Earth-facing solar flare recorded by Sansa in the past seven years and that the eruption briefly affected high-frequency radio communications, “resulting in a total radio blackout over the African region which lasted for up to 20 minutes”.

    What is a geomagnetic storm? The Conversation Africa asked Sansa’s Amoré Nel, who researches geomagnetics, to explain.

    What is a geomagnetic storm and how common are they?

    A geomagnetic storm is a disturbance in Earth’s magnetic field caused by solar activity. There’s a reaction called nuclear fusion that occurs continuously deep within the Sun’s core. This generates massive amounts of energy. Some of the energy is released as light (sunlight), some as radiation (solar flares), and some as charged particles.

    The Sun also continuously emits a stream of charged particles known as the solar wind. Occasionally, the Sun releases larger bursts of energy, called coronal mass ejections. It sends clouds of these charged particles, or plasma, hurtling through space. I like to explain it to children this way: the Sun sometimes drinks a soda too fast and then burps. This “burp” is the cloud of plasma which then travels through space. These emissions don’t always hit us. But when they do, they collide with Earth’s magnetic field, disrupt it, and lead to a geomagnetic storm.

    Earth’s magnetic field is an invisible force that surrounds our planet, acting like a giant magnet with a north and south pole. It helps protect us from harmful solar radiation by deflecting charged particles from the Sun.

    The solar flare from 3842 emitted both X-flares (radiation) and a coronal mass ejection. X-flares are radiation; they travel at almost the speed of light and reach Earth within minutes. That’s what caused the brief communications disruption Sansa mentioned on 3 October. But the coronal mass ejection takes much longer to reach us. We’d predicted it would do so over the past weekend but in fact it only reached us on the morning of 8 October.

    Geomagnetic storms occur fairly often. Minor ones happen multiple times per year. The severity of a storm depends on how strong the solar event was that caused it. Larger, more intense storms are less common but can happen every few years. Solar events are closely tied to the Sun’s 11-year solar cycle, which has periods of high and low activity. During the peak of the cycle, called solar maximum, more sunspots and solar flares occur, increasing the likelihood of solar storms.

    We are now heading towards the peak of Solar Cycle 25, which will be in July 2025. Solar maxima usually last between two and three years.

    Are these storms dangerous? What damage can they cause?

    Geomagnetic storms are not typically harmful to humans directly, but they can pose risks to modern technology and infrastructure. One of the most notable dangers is to power grids. Powerful storms can induce electric currents in power lines, potentially overloading transformers and causing blackouts, as happened in Quebec, Canada, in 1989.



    Read more:
    Solar storm knocks out farmers’ high-tech tractors – an electrical engineer explains how a larger storm could take down the power grid and the internet

    Satellites in space are also vulnerable. A strong storm can damage electronics onboard, disrupt communication signals, and shorten the lifespan of the satellites themselves.

    In aviation, geomagnetic storms can disrupt radio communication and GPS signals, which are vital for aircraft navigation. This is especially important for flights that pass near the polar regions, where the effects of geomagnetic storms are more pronounced. Astronauts and spacecraft are also at risk – the extra radiation can be dangerous for equipment and human health.

    Are there any upsides to this phenomenon?

    Auroras are a visually stunning aspect of geomagnetic storms. These colourful displays in the night sky occur when charged particles from the Sun get captured in Earth’s magnetic field lines, and funnel down towards the poles. Here they interact with Earth’s atmosphere, releasing energy that produces shimmering lights.

    The northern lights are seen in the sky above Alta, Norway.
    Romano/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    Auroras can be seen at both the north and south pole, aptly named the northern and southern lights. If storms are big enough, it’s possible to see them in regions much further away from the poles. This happened in South Africa on 11 May 2024.

    Studying geomagnetic storms provides valuable insights into space weather. By understanding how the Sun’s activity affects Earth, scientists can better predict future storms and work to protect the technologies we rely on. The study of geomagnetic storms also contributes to our understanding of the Sun and space in general.

    Can monitoring the storms mitigate the risks?

    Geomagnetic storms are monitored using various instruments on Earth and in space. On Earth, magnetometers measure changes in the magnetic field, allowing scientists to track disturbances as they happen. Sansa operates a dense network of Global Navigation Satellite System receivers in Africa, and magnetometer stations in various parts of southern Africa, for this reason. The agency is currently setting up a magnetometer station in Ethiopia, too. This will improve our ability to monitor geomagnetic storms.

    In space, satellites equipped with sensors monitor the Sun’s activity and detect solar flares or coronal mass ejections before they reach Earth. This data feeds into prediction models used in space weather centres across the globe.

    Once a storm is detected, agencies like Sansa issue alerts and forecasts. These warnings help industries such as power grid operators, satellite companies and aviation authorities to prepare for a storm.

    For example, power companies can temporarily shut down or reconfigure parts of the grid to avoid overloading during a storm. Satellite operators can place their spacecraft into safer operating modes, such as switching off electronic components, and airlines can reroute flights away from high-risk areas.

    Monitoring alone can’t prevent all the damage caused by geomagnetic storms. But it can greatly reduce the risks. Thanks to early warning systems we can protect crucial infrastructure and minimise the effect these storms have on our daily lives.

    Amoré Elsje Nel works for the South African National Space Agency. She receives a Thuthuka Grant (TTK210406592410) from the National Research Foundation.

    – ref. A geomagnetic storm has hit Earth – a space scientist explains what causes them – https://theconversation.com/a-geomagnetic-storm-has-hit-earth-a-space-scientist-explains-what-causes-them-240737

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump and Harris are sharply divided on science, but share common ground on US technology policy

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kenneth Evans, Scholar in Science and Technology Policy, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University

    Science topics don’t always come up during presidential debates – but they did on Sept. 10, 2024. Mario Tama via Getty Images

    For the first time in American history, quantum computing was mentioned by a candidate during a presidential debate, on Sept. 10, 2024. After Vice President Kamala Harris brought up quantum technology, she and former President Donald Trump went on to have a heated back-and-forth about American chipmaking and China’s rise in semiconductor manufacturing. Science and technology policy usually takes a back seat to issues such as immigration, the economy and health care during election season.

    What’s changed for 2024?

    From COVID-19 to climate change, ChatGPT to, yes, quantum computers, science-related issues are on the minds of American policymakers and voters alike. The federal government spends nearly US$200 billion each year on scientific research and development to address these challenges and many others. Presidents and Congress, however, rarely agree on how – and how much – money should be spent on science.

    With the increasing public focus on global competitiveness, the climate crisis and artificial intelligence, a closer look at Trump’s and Harris’ records on science and technology policy could provide a hint about how they’d approach these topics if elected this fall.

    Two distinct visions for science funding

    If politics can be described as “who gets what and when,” U.S. science and technology policy can be assessed through the annual budget process for R&D. By this measure, the differences between the Trump and Biden-Harris administrations couldn’t be starker.

    In his first budget request to Congress, in 2017, Trump spurned decades of precedent, proposing historic cuts across nearly every federal science agency. In particular, Trump targeted climate-related programs at the Department of Energy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency.

    Trump’s fiscal policy took a page from Reagan-era conservative orthodoxy, prioritizing military spending over social programs, including R&D. Unlike Reagan, however, Trump also took aim at basic research funding, an area with long-standing bipartisan support in Congress. His three subsequent budget proposals were no different: across-the-board reductions to federal research programs, while pushing for increases to defense technology development and demonstration projects.

    Congress rebuked nearly all of Trump’s requests. Instead, it passed some of the largest increases to federal R&D programs in U.S. history, even before accounting for emergency spending packages funded as part of the government’s pandemic response.

    In contrast, the Biden-Harris administration made science and innovation a centerpiece of its early policy agenda – with budgets to match. Leveraging the slim Democratic majority during the 117th Congress, Biden and Harris shepherded three landmark bills into law: the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act. These laws contain significant R&D provisions focused on environmental projects (IIJA), clean energy (IRA) and American semiconductor manufacturing (CHIPS).

    CHIPS set up programs within the National Science Foundation and the Department of Commerce to create regional technology hubs in support of American manufacturing. The act also set ambitious funding targets for federal science agencies, especially at NSF, calling for its budget to be doubled from $9 billion to over $18 billion over the course of five years.

    Despite its initial push for R&D, the Biden-Harris administration’s final two budget proposals offered far less to science. Years of deficit spending and a new Republican majority in the House cast a cloud of budget austerity over Congress. Instead of moving toward doubling NSF’s budget, the agency suffered an 8% decrease in fiscal year 2024 – its biggest cut in over three decades. For FY2025, which runs from Oct. 1, 2024, through Sept. 30, 2025, Biden and Harris requested a meager 3% increase for NSF, billions of dollars short of CHIPS-enacted spending levels.

    An emerging consensus on China

    On technology policy, Biden and Harris share more with Trump than they let on.

    Their approach to competing with China on tech follows Trump’s lead: They’ve expanded tariffs on Chinese goods and severely limited China’s access to American-made computer chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

    Biden and Harris have also ramped up research security efforts intended to protect U.S. ideas and innovation from China. Trump launched the China Initiative as an attempt to stop the Chinese government from stealing American research. The Biden-Harris administration ended the program in 2022, but pieces of it remain in place. Scientific collaborations between the United States and China continue to decline, to the detriment of American scientific leadership.

    Semiconductor manufacturing is a key to many technologies; by extension, where it happens can be a security issue.
    Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    The Biden-Harris administration has also drawn from Trump-era policy to strengthen America’s leadership in “industries of the future.” The term, coined by Trump’s then-chief science adviser Kelvin Droegemeier, refers to five emerging technology areas: AI, quantum science, advanced manufacturing, advanced communications and biotechnology. This language has been parroted by the Biden-Harris administration as part of its focus on American manufacturing and throughout Harris’ campaign, including during the debate.

    In short, both candidates align with the emerging Washington bipartisan consensus on China: innovation policy at home, strategic decoupling abroad.

    Science advice not always a welcome resource

    Trump’s dismissal of and at times outright contempt for scientific consensus is well documented. From “Sharpiegate,” when he mapped his own projected path for Hurricane Dorian, to pulling out of the Paris climate agreement, World Health Organization and the Iran nuclear deal, Trump has demonstrated an unwillingness to accept any advice, let alone from scientists.

    Indeed, Trump took over two years to hire Droegemeier as director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, or OSTP, doubling the previous record for the length of time a president has gone without a scientific adviser. This absence was no doubt reflected in Trump’s short-on-science budget requests to Congress, especially during the beginning of his administration.

    On the other hand, the Biden-Harris administration has promoted science and innovation as a core part of its broader economic policy agenda. It elevated the role of OSTP: Biden is the first president to name his science adviser – a position currently held by Arati Prabhakar – as a member of his Cabinet.

    By law, the president is required to appoint an OSTP director. But it is up to the president to decide how and when to use their advice. If the new White House wants the U.S. to remain a global leader in R&D, the science adviser will need to continue to fight for it.

    Kenneth Evans receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the American Institute of Physics, and the Clinton Foundation. He is affiliated with Rice University and Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

    – ref. Trump and Harris are sharply divided on science, but share common ground on US technology policy – https://theconversation.com/trump-and-harris-are-sharply-divided-on-science-but-share-common-ground-on-us-technology-policy-239053

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How foreign operations are manipulating social media to influence your views

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Filippo Menczer, Professor of Informatics and Computer Science, Indiana University

    Russians, Chinese, Iranians – even Israelis – are trying to affect what you believe. Sean Gladwell/Moment via Getty Images

    Foreign influence campaigns, or information operations, have been widespread in the run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Influence campaigns are large-scale efforts to shift public opinion, push false narratives or change behaviors among a target population. Russia, China, Iran, Israel and other nations have run these campaigns by exploiting social bots, influencers, media companies and generative AI.

    At the Indiana University Observatory on Social Media, my colleagues and I study influence campaigns and design technical solutions – algorithms – to detect and counter them. State-of-the-art methods developed in our center use several indicators of this type of online activity, which researchers call inauthentic coordinated behavior. We identify clusters of social media accounts that post in a synchronized fashion, amplify the same groups of users, share identical sets of links, images or hashtags, or perform suspiciously similar sequences of actions.

    We have uncovered many examples of coordinated inauthentic behavior. For example, we found accounts that flood the network with tens or hundreds of thousands of posts in a single day. The same campaign can post a message with one account and then have other accounts that its organizers also control “like” and “unlike” it hundreds of times in a short time span. Once the campaign achieves its objective, all these messages can be deleted to evade detection. Using these tricks, foreign governments and their agents can manipulate social media algorithms that determine what is trending and what is engaging to decide what users see in their feeds.

    Adversaries such as Russia, China and Iran aren’t the only foreign governments manipulating social media to influence U.S. politics.

    Generative AI

    One technique increasingly being used is creating and managing armies of fake accounts with generative artificial intelligence. We analyzed 1,420 fake Twitter – now X – accounts that used AI-generated faces for their profile pictures. These accounts were used to spread scams, disseminate spam and amplify coordinated messages, among other activities.

    We estimate that at least 10,000 accounts like these were active daily on the platform, and that was before X CEO Elon Musk dramatically cut the platform’s trust and safety teams. We also identified a network of 1,140 bots that used ChatGPT to generate humanlike content to promote fake news websites and cryptocurrency scams.

    In addition to posting machine-generated content, harmful comments and stolen images, these bots engaged with each other and with humans through replies and retweets. Current state-of-the-art large language model content detectors are unable to distinguish between AI-enabled social bots and human accounts in the wild.

    Model misbehavior

    The consequences of such operations are difficult to evaluate due to the challenges posed by collecting data and carrying out ethical experiments that would influence online communities. Therefore it is unclear, for example, whether online influence campaigns can sway election outcomes. Yet, it is vital to understand society’s vulnerability to different manipulation tactics.

    In a recent paper, we introduced a social media model called SimSoM that simulates how information spreads through the social network. The model has the key ingredients of platforms such as Instagram, X, Threads, Bluesky and Mastodon: an empirical follower network, a feed algorithm, sharing and resharing mechanisms, and metrics for content quality, appeal and engagement.

    SimSoM allows researchers to explore scenarios in which the network is manipulated by malicious agents who control inauthentic accounts. These bad actors aim to spread low-quality information, such as disinformation, conspiracy theories, malware or other harmful messages. We can estimate the effects of adversarial manipulation tactics by measuring the quality of information that targeted users are exposed to in the network.

    We simulated scenarios to evaluate the effect of three manipulation tactics. First, infiltration: having fake accounts create believable interactions with human users in a target community, getting those users to follow them. Second, deception: having the fake accounts post engaging content, likely to be reshared by the target users. Bots can do this by, for example, leveraging emotional responses and political alignment. Third, flooding: posting high volumes of content.

    Our model shows that infiltration is the most effective tactic, reducing the average quality of content in the system by more than 50%. Such harm can be further compounded by flooding the network with low-quality yet appealing content, thus reducing quality by 70%.

    Curbing coordinated manipulation

    We have observed all these tactics in the wild. Of particular concern is that generative AI models can make it much easier and cheaper for malicious agents to create and manage believable accounts. Further, they can use generative AI to interact nonstop with humans and create and post harmful but engaging content on a wide scale. All these capabilities are being used to infiltrate social media users’ networks and flood their feeds with deceptive posts.

    These insights suggest that social media platforms should engage in more – not less – content moderation to identify and hinder manipulation campaigns and thereby increase their users’ resilience to the campaigns.

    The platforms can do this by making it more difficult for malicious agents to create fake accounts and to post automatically. They can also challenge accounts that post at very high rates to prove that they are human. They can add friction in combination with educational efforts, such as nudging users to reshare accurate information. And they can educate users about their vulnerability to deceptive AI-generated content.

    Open-source AI models and data make it possible for malicious agents to build their own generative AI tools. Regulation should therefore target AI content dissemination via social media platforms rather then AI content generation. For instance, before a large number of people can be exposed to some content, a platform could require its creator to prove its accuracy or provenance.

    These types of content moderation would protect, rather than censor, free speech in the modern public squares. The right of free speech is not a right of exposure, and since people’s attention is limited, influence operations can be, in effect, a form of censorship by making authentic voices and opinions less visible.

    Filippo Menczer receives funding from the Knight Foundation, Sloan Foundation, NSF, DoD, and the Swiss National Science Foundation.

    – ref. How foreign operations are manipulating social media to influence your views – https://theconversation.com/how-foreign-operations-are-manipulating-social-media-to-influence-your-views-240089

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why wildfires started by human activities can be more destructive and harder to contain

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Virginia Iglesias, Interim Earth Lab Director, University of Colorado Boulder

    Heavy equipment working near dry brush sparked a destructive wildfire near Riverside, Calif., in September 2024. AP Photo/Eric Thayer

    Wildfires are becoming increasingly destructive across the U.S., as the country is seeing in 2024. Firefighters were battling large blazes in several states from California to North Dakota in early October 2024, including fires burning near homes and communities.

    Research shows wildfires are up to four times larger and three times more frequent than they were in the 1980s and ‘90s, with some consuming hundreds of thousands of acres in a single blaze.

    Lightning strikes are one cause, but the majority of wildfires that threaten communities are sparked by human activities.

    Metal from cars or mowers dragging on the ground can spark fires. So can power lines touching trees. Officials confirmed on Oct. 2 that a broken power line started the deadly 2023 Maui fire that destroyed the town of Lahaina, Hawaii. California’s largest fire in 2024 started when a man pushed a burning car into a ravine near Chico. The fire destroyed more than 700 homes and buildings.

    Although the number of fires in 2024 has not been unusually high, the acreage burned has far surpassed the 10-year average, displacing thousands of people, destroying homes and straining firefighting resources.

    What makes these wildfires so destructive and difficult to contain?

    The answer lies in a mix of changing climate, the legacy of past land-management practices, and current human activities that are reshaping fire behavior and increasing the risk they pose.

    Fire’s perfect storm

    Wildfires rely on three key elements to spread: conducive weather, dry fuel and an ignition source. Each of these factors has undergone pronounced changes in recent decades. While climate change sets the stage for larger and more intense fires, humans are actively fanning the flames.

    Climate and weather

    Extreme temperatures play a dangerous role in wildfires. Heat dries out vegetation, making it more flammable. Under these conditions, wildfires ignite more easily, spread faster and burn with greater intensity. In the western U.S., aridity attributed to climate change has doubled the amount of forestland that has burned since 1984.

    Compounding the problem is the rapid rise in nighttime temperatures, now increasing faster than daytime temperatures. Nights, which used to offer a reprieve with cooler conditions and higher humidity, do so less often, allowing fires to continue raging without pause.

    Ranchers watch as firefighting planes battle the Park Fire, which was fueled by extremely hot, dry conditions in Butte County, Calif.
    AP Photo/Noah Berger

    Fuel

    Fire is a natural process that has shaped ecosystems for over 420 million years. Indigenous people historically used controlled burns to manage landscapes and reduce fuel buildup. However, a century of fire suppression has allowed vast areas to accumulate dense fuels, priming them for larger and more intense wildfires.

    Invasive species, such as certain grasses, have exacerbated the issue by creating continuous fuel beds that accelerate fire spread, often doubling or tripling fire activity.

    Additionally, human development in fire-prone regions, especially in the wildland-urban interface, where neighborhoods intermingle with forest and grassland vegetation, has introduced new, highly flammable fuels. Buildings, vehicles and infrastructure often ignite easily and burn hotter and faster than natural vegetation. These changes have significantly altered fuel patterns, creating conditions conducive to more severe and harder-to-control wildfires.

    Ignition

    Lightning can ignite wildfires, but humans are responsible for an increasing share. From unattended campfires to arson or sparks from power lines, over 84% of the wildfires affecting communities are human-ignited.

    Human activities have not only tripled the length of the fire season, but they also have resulted in fires that pose a higher risk to people.

    More than 600 homes and buildings burned in the Park Fire, one of California’s largest fires on record. Officials say the fire was started by a man pushing a burning car into a ravine near Chico.
    AP Photo/Eugene Garcia

    Lightning-started fires often coincide with storms that carry rain or higher humidity, which slows fires’ spread. Human-started fires, however, typically ignite under more extreme conditions – hotter temperatures, lower humidity and stronger winds. This leads to greater flame heights, faster spread in the critical early days before crews can respond, and more severe ecosystem effects, such as killing more trees and degrading the soil.

    Human-ignited fires often occur in or near populated areas, where flammable structures and vegetation create even more hazardous conditions. As urban development expands into wildlands, the probability of human-started fires and the property potentially exposed to fire increase, creating a feedback loop of escalating wildfire risk.

    2024 fire season’s whiplash weather

    The record-breaking summer heat in 2024 intensified fire hazards, with vegetation rapidly drying out and leaving landscapes parched in many areas. In addition, a phenomenon known as whiplash weather, marked by unusually wet winters and springs followed by extreme summer heat, has been especially pronounced in Southern California.

    A wet spring fostered vegetation growth, which then dried out under scorching summer temperatures, turning into highly combustible fuel. Severe heat waves, along with the associated lack of nighttime cooling, created conditions where fires not only spread faster, but were also more difficult to contain.

    This cycle has fueled some of the biggest fires of the 2024 season, several of which were started by humans. Atmospheric instability during some of these fires also led to the formation of pyrocumulonimbus clouds – massive, fire-fueled thunderheads that can generate their own weather, including lightning and tornado-like winds that drive flames even further.

    As these factors converge, the potential for increasingly severe wildfires looms ever larger. Severe fires also release large amounts of carbon from trees, vegetation and soils into the atmosphere, increasing greenhouse gas emissions and exacerbating climate change, contributing to more extreme fire seasons.

    Virginia Iglesias receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Why wildfires started by human activities can be more destructive and harder to contain – https://theconversation.com/why-wildfires-started-by-human-activities-can-be-more-destructive-and-harder-to-contain-239058

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Is it COVID-19? Flu? At-home rapid tests could help you and your doctor decide on a treatment plan

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Julie Sullivan, Chief Operating Officer of RADx Tech, Emory University

    Over-the-counter multiplex tests for more than one illness may soon come to a pharmacy near you. Paco Burgada/iStock via Getty Images

    A scratchy, sore throat, a relentless fever, a pounding head and a nasty cough – these symptoms all scream upper respiratory illness. But which one?

    Many of the viruses that cause upper respiratory infections such as influenza A or B and the virus that causes COVID-19 all employ similar tactics. They target the same areas in your body – primarily the upper and lower airways – and this shared battleground triggers a similar response from your immune system. Overlapping symptoms – fever, cough, fatigue, aches and pains – make it difficult to determine what may be the underlying cause.

    Now, at-home rapid tests can simultaneously determine whether someone has COVID-19 or the flu. Thanks in part to the National Institutes of Health’s Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics, or RADx, program, the Food and Drug Administration has provided emergency use authorization for seven at-home rapid tests that can distinguish between COVID-19, influenza A and influenza B.

    Our team in Atlanta – composed of biomedical engineers, clinicians and researchers at Emory University, Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta and Georgia Institute of Technology – is part of the RADx Test Verification Core. We closely collaborate with other institutions and agencies to determine whether and how well COVID-19 and influenza diagnostics work, effectively testing the tests. Our center has worked with almost every COVID and flu diagnostic on the market, and our data helped inform the instructions you might see in many of the home test kits on the market.

    While no test is perfect, to now be able to test for certain viruses at home when symptoms begin can help patients and their doctors come up with appropriate care plans sooner.

    A new era of at-home tests

    Traditionally, identifying the virus causing upper respiratory illness symptoms required going to a clinic or hospital for a trained medical professional to collect a nasopharyngeal sample. This involves inserting a long, fiber-tipped swab that looks like a skinny Q-tip into one of your nostrils and all the way to the back of your nose and throat to collect virus-containing secretions. The sample is then typically sent to a lab for analysis, which could take hours to days for results.

    The COVID-19 pandemic made over-the-counter tests for respiratory illnesses commonplace.
    DuKai/Moment via Getty Images

    Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, the possibility of using over-the-counter tests to diagnose respiratory illnesses at home became a reality. These tests used a much gentler and less invasive nasal swab and could also be done by anyone, anytime and in their own home. However, these tests were designed to diagnose only COVID-19 and could not distinguish between other types of illnesses.

    Since then, researchers have developed over-the-counter multiplex tests that can screen for more than one respiratory infection at once. In 2023, Pfizer’s Lucira test became the first at-home diagnostic test for both COVID-19 and influenza to gain emergency use authorization.

    What are multiplex rapid tests?

    There are two primary forms of at-home COVID-19 and COVID-19/flu combination tests: molecular tests such as PCR that detect genetic material from the virus, and antigen tests – commonly referred to as rapid tests – that detect proteins called antigens from the virus.

    The majority of over-the-counter COVID-19 and COVID-19/flu tests on the market are antigen tests. They detect the presence of antigens in your nasal secretions that act as a biological signature for a specific virus. If viral antigens are present, that means you’re likely infected.

    Respiratory illnesses such as flu, COVID-19 and RSV can be hard to tell apart.

    To detect these antigens, rapid tests have paper-like strips coated with specially engineered antibodies that function like a molecular Velcro, sticking only to a specific antigen. Scientists design and manufacture specialized strips to recognize specific viral antigens, like those belonging to influenza A, influenza B or the virus that causes COVID-19.

    The antibodies for these viral targets are placed on the strip, and when someone’s nasal sample has viral proteins that are applied to the test strip, a line will appear for that virus in particular.

    Advancing rapid antigen tests

    Like all technologies, rapid antigen tests have limitations.

    Compared with lab-based PCR tests that can detect the presence of small amounts of pathogen by amplifying them, antigen tests are typically less sensitive than PCR and could miss an infection in some cases.

    All at-home COVID-19 and COVID-19/flu antigen tests are authorized for repeat use. This means if someone is experiencing symptoms – or has been exposed to someone with COVID-19 but is not experiencing symptoms – and has a negative result for their first test, they should retest 48 hours later.

    Another limitation to rapid antigen tests is that currently they are designed to test only for COVID-19, influenza A and influenza B. Currently available over-the-counter tests aren’t able to detect illnesses from pathogens that look like these viruses and cause similar symptoms, such as adenovirus or strep.

    Because multiplex texts can detect several different viruses, they can also produce findings that are more complex to interpret than tests for single viruses. This may increase the risk of a patient incorrectly interpreting their results, misreading one infection for another.

    Researchers are actively developing even more sophisticated tests that are more sensitive and can simultaneously screen for a wider range of viruses or even bacterial infections. Scientists are also examining the potential of using saliva samples in tests for bacterial or viral infections.

    Additionally, scientists are exploring integrating multiplex tests with smartphones for rapid at-home diagnosis and reporting to health care providers. This may increase the accessibility of these tests for people with vision impairment, low dexterity or other challenges with conducting and interpreting at-home tests.

    Faster and more accurate diagnoses lead to more targeted and effective treatment plans, potentially reducing unnecessary antibiotic use and improving patient outcomes. The ability to rapidly identify and track outbreaks can also empower public health officials to better mitigate the spread of infectious diseases.

    Research conducted by ACME POCT received funding by the National Institutes of Health.

    Wilbur Lam receives funding from the National Institutes of Health.

    – ref. Is it COVID-19? Flu? At-home rapid tests could help you and your doctor decide on a treatment plan – https://theconversation.com/is-it-covid-19-flu-at-home-rapid-tests-could-help-you-and-your-doctor-decide-on-a-treatment-plan-231253

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: We’ve worked out a way of understanding how microbial communities shape life on Earth

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Miguel Lurgi, Associate Professor in Computational Ecology, Swansea University

    Microbial communities – vast ecosystems teeming with millions of different cells from different species – play a fundamental role in life on Earth, from producing oxygen to aiding digestion. Despite their importance, it has been a challenge for scientists to fully understand how these intricate communities form and function.

    But in a new study, my colleagues and I have developed a new mathematical framework aimed at explaining how microbial relationships emerge. By better understanding these communities, we could better protect and manage them, which could have profound implications for the health of our planet.

    Most of our understanding of microbiomes – the collections of thousands of microbes that inhabit different environments and organisms – has come from studies on the differences between them. Researchers often investigate the ecological and evolutionary factors that appear to shape these microbial communities.

    But it has been hard to determine whether these factors are actually causing the differences or are merely coincidental. This is why understanding the true drivers behind microbiome formation is so important. It helps us see why these communities exist and how they function.

    If, like me, you’ve ever marvelled at the plants and animals thriving in nature, you’ve seen ecological and evolutionary forces in action, just as Charles Darwin did during the 19th century. The same principles that govern these larger ecosystems also apply to the microbial world.

    So, for our research, my colleagues and I took a leaf out of Darwin’s book. We examined the ecological and evolutionary factors that could lead to the formation of such diverse microbiomes across many multicellular organisms. These included marine sponges, insects, humans and squid. What we found was striking. Despite the vast differences between species, the same basic rules apply to their microbiomes.

    For example, the ability of microbes to move between environments and their rapid rate of evolution are important factors in determining where they live, whether in a plant’s roots or an animal’s gut. There are, of course, exceptions. In giant and red pandas, for instance, diet plays a vital role in shaping gut microbes, while certain plants, like the small brassica Arabidopsis, control their root microbiomes through chemical defences.

    Once we had identified these mechanisms, the challenge was to organise our insights into a coherent framework. This is similar to what Darwin did with his theory of evolution by natural selection. And this is where maths came into play.

    Maths is essential to our understanding of the world around us, whether we’re talking about quantum mechanics or the complexities of life itself. By applying mathematical models, we could make sense of the complex factors that shape microbiomes.

    A new model for microbial ecosystems

    Our framework helps explain puzzling observations, such as why some marine sponges are teeming with microbes while others harbour just a few. Our study is unique because it allows us, for the first time, to think about these intricate symbiotic relationships holistically. It integrates both ecological and evolutionary ways of thinking. We hope our framework will form the basis of future studies investigating other microbial ecosystems.

    We’re currently expanding our research into marine sponges by exploring how the exchange of metabolic products (like vitamins and amino acids) between microbes, affects their community structure. The flexibility of our framework means it can be adapted to study different systems. It could help provide a deeper understanding of the interactions between microbes and their hosts.

    This type of quantitative approach is crucial as humans continue to affect our natural ecosystems. It could help us come up with solutions to those problems.

    Better understanding microbial communities could help us better protect the natural world.
    Damsea/Shutterstock

    For example, we recently demonstrated how microbiome studies can improve coral reef conservation efforts by examining the microbial networks that support coral settlement. By manipulating these networks, we could help to restore coral populations more effectively.

    Of course, challenges remain. For example, we still don’t understand microbial dormancy, which is a strategy some microbes adopt when under stress. They reduce their activity while at the same time increasing resistance to harsh external conditions. It’s a bit like bears hibernating to avoid the winter.

    In spite of issues like those, we’re optimistic that mathematical frameworks like ours will pave the way for future discoveries. It could advance our understanding of ecosystems both large and small – from microbiomes to large ecosystems involving plants and animals. This in turn could help to unlock the secrets of the natural world. That knowledge could be used to preserve biodiversity for future generations.

    Miguel Lurgi receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust under Research Project Grant # RPG-2022-114

    – ref. We’ve worked out a way of understanding how microbial communities shape life on Earth – https://theconversation.com/weve-worked-out-a-way-of-understanding-how-microbial-communities-shape-life-on-earth-238716

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can Kemi Badenoch claim to have ‘become working class’ while working in McDonald’s – and why would she want to?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michael Rees, Senior Lecturer in Sociology, Nottingham Trent University

    Conservative MP Kemi Badenoch recently caused controversy by claiming that while she was born to a middle-class family, she “became working class” when working in McDonald’s to earn money while she was in college. In fairness to Badenoch, having a diversity of experience is an admirable attribute for an MP – something you wouldn’t associate with someone like recently deposed Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg for example.

    Badenoch, who was born in the UK but spent the first part of her life in Nigeria before returning as a teenager, said her time at the fast food chain helped her understand the life of “single mothers” struggling to make ends meet – insight that might have made her object to the policies enacted by her government that made life harder for the working classes. She said of the job:

    There’s a humility there as well. You had to wash toilets, there were no special cleaners coming in. You had to wash toilets, you had to flip burgers, you had to handle money.

    Badenoch’s assertion – during her bid to become leader of the Conservative party – raises several interesting questions, not least whether you can “become working class”. Part of the issue is that class is increasingly hard to define in 2024.

    Is class subjective and something that we feel (as Badenoch’s claim suggests) or is it something objective that we can measure? This is a question that has been troubling sociologists – and others – for years.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

    Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday.

    In social sciences, the most widely used measure of social class is the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) national statistics socioeconomic classification (NS-SEC). It is also the measure used by the UK government, most notably to measure social mobility – the movement of people between classes.

    The NS-SEC defines class by placing individuals in one of eight different classes according to their occupation. The scales runs from one (for higher managerial and professional positions) to eight (long-term unemployed).

    The classes are further simplified into three categories of professional/managerial (1 and 2), intermediate (3 and 4) and working class (5 to 7). It’s a hierarchy but it also shows that there is no easily identifiable dividing line between classes. Examples of those in professional/managerial would include directors of major companies, those teaching in higher education and journalists. Those in intermediate professions include travel agents, police officers (sergeant and below) and hotel managers. Those in the working class would include farm workers, building site labourers and workers in the service industry, such as in McDonald’s.

    Using the NS-SEC occupational coding tool, we can place both Badenoch’s parents (a GP and a professor) in social class 1. While she acknowledges that she is from a middle-class background, it is clear that both her parents occupy positions at the top of the social class hierarchy. As an MP, Badenoch herself is now also clearly social class 1. Her previous roles before entering politics, as a digital director for The Spectator and associate director at private bank Coutts return class 2 and 1 respectively. It is evident that Badenoch has lived, and continues to live, a very privileged, and middle-class, life. Given this, why would she claim to be working class?

    Does working in McDonald’s make you working class?
    Shutterstock/Jessica Girvan

    The first thing to note is that Badenoch is not unique in citing a working-class identity of some kind. The prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, is by now notorious for his frequent references to his father’s job as a toolmaker. Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, is also regularly photographed in pubs while drinking a pint and smoking a cigarette – something that sociologist Pierre Bourdieu would define as him attempting to evidence a working-class habitus, those tastes and behaviours that we typically associated with members of a particular social class.

    The rationale for this is that Britain is quite unique in its perspective on class. People will often claim they are working class, or have working-class roots. This would be unheard of in other parts of the world, where claiming to be middle class is aspirational.

    People in Britain will continue to claim they are working class even when evidence indicates that they are, and have been, middle class for several generations. This largely seems to be an inheritance of Britain’s history as an industrial country and the national obsession with “getting on” as well as a the country having a reputation for being particularly divided by social class. British people want to prove that they have been successful on merit rather than because of unearned privilege.

    Large fries and a majority in 2029?

    Britain’s changing political landscape is also an important part of the picture, as we look back at Badenoch’s McDonald’s career.

    Throughout the 20th century the dividing line between political parties was evident. The working classes typically voted for the Labour party and the middle classes typically voted for the Conservative party. The dividing lines between political parties have become more complicated in the 21st century, particularly in the post-Brexit years; notably evidenced by Boris Johnson’s 2019 election win and the crumbling of the red wall.

    This helps us understand why Badenoch would want to find a way to show that she is in touch with working-class people – and how she was able to do it, at least according to her own reasoning.

    Votes are always on a politician’s mind – and the increasing willingness of voters to switch allegiances means more votes than ever are up for grabs. The nebulous nature of class and the difficulty we have in defining it, becomes the vehicle for appealing for those votes.

    Badenoch’s claim that she became working class appears to be a longer-term strategy. She is looking ahead to the next election. Nevertheless, it seems difficult to argue that a short period working in McDonald’s made Badenoch working class. An adulthood of privilege also makes her claim rather insulting to those who, in her own words, struggle to make ends meet.

    Michael Rees does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can Kemi Badenoch claim to have ‘become working class’ while working in McDonald’s – and why would she want to? – https://theconversation.com/can-kemi-badenoch-claim-to-have-become-working-class-while-working-in-mcdonalds-and-why-would-she-want-to-240638

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: No time for a holiday? A ‘workation’ could be the answer

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mariachiara Barzotto, Senior Lecturer in Management Strategy and Organisation, University of Bath

    OOO in Stintino, Sardinia. Wpadington/Shutterstock

    Imagine this: you’re lounging on the beach, waves crashing in the background. A laptop sits on the table next to your iced coffee. In between meetings, you dip into the ocean or explore a hiking trail. This is the ideal vision of “workations” – a blend of work and vacation that is gaining popularity worldwide.

    A workation allows employees to work remotely from a holiday spot, and is part of a larger shift towards more flexible working arrangements, accelerated by the COVID pandemic and the rise of digital technology. Workations can last from a few days to several weeks.

    The concept can be appealing to both employees and companies, but there are challenges too. So, understanding its benefits and limitations is important for workers and employers alike.

    The most obvious benefit for employees is enjoying a new environment while staying productive. The typical work environment can become monotonous, potentially leading to burnout, decreased creativity and dissatisfaction.

    A workation offers an escape from this day-to-day grind, providing a refreshing change of scenery. It combines the mental break of a vacation with the flexibility of working remotely, allowing workers to balance their professional and personal lives and enhance their creativity. This flexibility may be particularly beneficial for those with high workloads or tight schedules, as they no longer need to sacrifice time away from work to relax.

    And companies can also reap rewards from approving workations among their staff. One of the most significant advantages is employee retention. Flexible work arrangements are among the top priorities for employees in today’s job market, helping to reduce staff turnover.

    Offering the option of a workation could also make a company more attractive to prospective employees. And workers who are free to work from inspiring locations may return to their tasks less stressed, and more motivated and engaged. Studies show that remote workers often demonstrate increased organisational commitment.

    Another advantage is the potential for cost savings. With more employees working remotely, companies may reduce their need for large office spaces or the expensive perks offered in corporate environments such as gyms, canteens and the staffing that goes with them.

    But there can be challenges too. The boundary between work and leisure can become blurred, and some employees may find it hard to disconnect from work – defeating the object of travelling to a different workplace. The allure of finishing “just one more task” can prevent employees from truly enjoying their surroundings, potentially leading to exhaustion instead of rejuvenation.

    Time zone differences can also be a challenge. Juggling meetings and collaborating with colleagues in different time zones can lead to irregular work hours that make it hard to maintain a healthy work-life balance.

    Distractions are another concern. Beaches, tourist attractions or even the simple novelty of being in a new place can make it difficult to focus on work tasks. Employees need to have a strong sense of discipline to remain productive.

    For companies, one of the primary challenges is ensuring that employees remain productive. Monitoring performance without feeling intrusive can be a tricky balance for managers to strike.

    When a wifi connection is not secure, make sure you have a VPN.
    Elizaveta Galitckaia/Shutterstock

    Security is another major concern. Remote work often involves accessing company networks and handling sensitive information. When employees work from unfamiliar locations – particularly in public spaces such as cafes – there may be increased risks related to cybersecurity. Ensuring that employees follow security protocols, use secure wifi and protect sensitive data is crucial.

    Lastly, workations might not be feasible for all roles. This can lead to disparities in who can take advantage of the opportunity, potentially leading to bad feeling among other staff.

    For the concept of workations to succeed, both employees and employers should set clear expectations, establish boundaries, and focus on maintaining productivity while allowing time for relaxation. But, if managed properly, they could become a staple of modern work culture. In a world where flexibility and wellbeing are increasingly valued, workations offer a unique opportunity to blend productivity with personal fulfilment, reshaping how we think about work and leisure.

    Nine tips for having a successful workation

    1. Choose the right destination

    Opt for a location with reliable internet access and where the time difference between colleagues and clients is manageable.

    2. Set clear boundaries

    Establish dividing lines between your work and vacation time, and communicate these boundaries with your employer and colleagues.

    3. Ensure you have the right tech set-up

    Bring all the necessary equipment, including noise-cancelling headphones. Double-check that you have remote access to all necessary material before leaving.

    4. Plan for cybersecurity

    Use a secure virtual private network (VPN) to protect company data, and follow your company’s cybersecurity policies to the letter.

    5. Understand your company’s remote work policy

    Read up on things like flexibility in terms of location, time zones, working hours and refunds for co-working spaces or tech tools.

    6. Set realistic expectations

    Don’t expect your workation to feel like a full vacation. Plan your leisure activities around your work schedule. Be prepared to work longer or odd hours if your company operates in a different time zone.

    7. Consider the local infrastructure

    Research amenities such as medical services, food delivery and transport. These might be important if you stay in a more remote or unfamiliar area. Have a contingency plan for health emergencies and check visa requirements.

    8. Prepare for flexibility

    Be ready for unexpected issues like slow internet or disruptions due to local events. Back-up plans, such as access to a co-working space or alternative accommodation, can save you from unnecessary stress.

    9. Stay organised

    Keep a work schedule and a checklist of tasks to ensure that you remain as productive as you are in your regular work environment.

    Mariachiara Barzotto does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. No time for a holiday? A ‘workation’ could be the answer – https://theconversation.com/no-time-for-a-holiday-a-workation-could-be-the-answer-240485

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Football acts like referees are the issue but they are just following the rules

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Daniel Hough, Professor of Politics, University of Sussex

    Football seems to have a problem with referees. Barely a weekend goes by without someone – a manager, a player, a pundit – making it abundantly clear that many of those who officiate are (apparently) not very good at their jobs.

    Arsenal’s manager, Mikel Arteta, for example, was furious with referee Michael Oliver for sending off Leandro Trossard during his side’s top-of-the-table clash with Manchester City on September 22. He described it as “really, really worrying” that referees were giving out cards for what Arteta seemed to regard as trivial offences.

    In this case it was Oliver’s decision to award a yellow card to Trossard after the Belgian booted the ball away to stop City taking a quick free kick. On top of a yellow card Trossard had already earned for a foul earlier in the game, the second offence, bringing a second yellow card, added up to a red card, meaning Trossard had to be sent off. Arteta’s criticism came even though it’s crystal clear that such offences merit exactly the punishments that were being meted out.

    The previous week, referee Anthony Taylor was the man in the firing line. He dished out 14 yellow cards (a premier league record) for a range of offences committed during the Chelsea v Bournemouth game on 14 September. Perhaps unsurprisingly, a whole host of self-appointed social media experts were quick to express their dissatisfaction with Taylor’s officiating. As a result, the Premier League is currently investigating a number of those social media posts for allegedly making threats against Taylor and his family.

    A significant part of the story in both of these cases concerns dissent and player petulance. Taylor, in particular, wasn’t standing for any of that, yellow-carding four players for inappropriately chatting back to the referee and one for excessive celebrations following a goal.

    The story, or so one of the narratives around poor referring would have it, is officials are being over-zealous. The players themselves seem to have no agency in this. It’s the referees that are the problem.

    If football is going to stop looking like a game primed for spoilt, stroppy schoolboys, then it’s precisely that narrative that needs to change. As I argue in a new book on integrity and football, there are three dimensions to cases like these.

    Firstly, players continue – again and again, and at all levels of the game – to think that verbally abusing the referee when they make decisions that the player doesn’t like is part and parcel of football. “Shithousery”, to use the contemporary parlance, is frequently seen as a virtue. It shouldn’t be. Players push and push the rules to their limits and yet when they are called out the instinct is often to whine and bleat about how unfair it all is.

    Football doesn’t have to look far to see how this can be done differently. Rugby referees have broadly similar sets of tools at their disposal and yet rugby players treat officials very differently. Diving about to win a free kick, for example, is not just frowned upon in rugby union, players trying it on are openly ridiculed. There is certainly bad behaviour in rugby, but you only very rarely see any players disrespecting the officials.

    One way of shifting the balance is by doing what Taylor did in the Chelsea v Bournemouth fixture, which is to pull players up immediately on what he saw as disrespectful behaviour. A few months of rugby-style refereeing and football will be much the better for it.

    Secondly, fans need to understand not just how difficult a referee’s job is but also to appreciate that regardless of whether referees get decisions right or wrong they, the fans, need to deal with it. Abusing officials and players is now a depressingly predictable part of football’s story.

    And, as the pleayers themselves will tell you, it’s not just the referees who are singled out for abuse. Research by Ofcom and the Alan Turing Institute in 2022 showed that, 34% of all tweets directed at Newcastle United defender Ciaran Clark in the first five months of the 2021-22 season were deemed “offensive” by OfCom. OfCom further claimed that an offensive tweet was sent to a premier league footballer once every four minutes across that same time period. Players getting things wrong is part and parcel of the game – verbally abusing them for it should not be.

    Finally, the administrators have a role to play in pushing stakeholders (fans, players, analysts) to show just a bit more spine. The FA needs to come out and explain that football will no longer stand for many of the antics that we currently see on the field. At the beginning of 2023-24 referees started giving yellow cards when players kicked the ball away to stop free kicks being taken. The result was that players for the most part simply stopped doing it. Sadly, no one appeared to tell Trossard.

    The FA has long argued that those within football need to show the game more respect. Yet the FA itself needs to show the backbone to stand up and defend, openly and forcefully, those who try to practically implement all these nice words.

    Whether Michael Oliver and Anthony Taylor thought they were fighting for the game’s integrity is largely irrelevant. They were just doing their job by interpreting the rules as they saw them. But there is something about the reaction of players, fans and indeed the FA that says that too many people still don’t really get it. Integrity matters. And it really is about time that they all start to take it seriously.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Daniel Hough does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Football acts like referees are the issue but they are just following the rules – https://theconversation.com/football-acts-like-referees-are-the-issue-but-they-are-just-following-the-rules-239962

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Marburg virus outbreak in Rwanda – what you need to know

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Manal Mohammed, Senior Lecturer, Medical Microbiology, University of Westminster

    Rwanda is in the midst of its first outbreak of Marburg virus – an often fatal disease with symptoms similar to Ebola. So far, 46 cases have been recorded and 12 deaths. The source of the outbreak is still not known.

    Seven hundred doses of an experimental vaccine against the virus have just been shipped from the US to Rwanda. The vaccine is currently being administered, largely to healthcare workers, who have made up the bulk of the victims so far.

    The roll out is part of a clinical trial, so it will be a while before the vaccine’s efficacy is known.

    Marburg virus is named after the town in Germany where it first emerged. In 1967, there were simultaneous outbreaks at laboratories in Marburg and Belgrade in Serbia (then part of Yugoslavia). The outbreak was caused by African green monkeys imported from Uganda for use in experiments. Seven people died.

    Since then, there have been several Marburg virus outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa, including in countries bordering Rwanda.

    Previous outbreaks have been reported in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and Tanzania. The most recent outbreaks were reported in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania between February and June 2023, where nine cases were reported and six deaths.

    Other countries that previously reported outbreaks include Angola, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya and South Africa. The outbreak in Angola in 2005 killed 300 people.

    Outbreaks typically occur when people come in contact with infected green monkeys, pigs or Egyptian rousette bats (a type of Old World fruit bat) – a common carrier of the virus. These bats are often found in mines and caves. Once the disease jumps from an infected animal to a human – so-called zoonotic spillover – it can spread from person to person through bodily fluids or by contact with contaminated surfaces, such as bedding.

    There are no antiviral drugs to treat patients. People infected with Marburg virus are kept hydrated and any blood loss is replaced through transfusion.

    The incubation period, which is the time between the exposure to Marburg virus and the start of symptoms, is five to ten days. Symptoms of Marburg virus disease can appear suddenly and include fever, muscle pains, diarrhoea and vomiting.

    The virus damages blood vessels and interferes with the ability of blood to clot, which can lead to uncontrolled bleeding from the nose, eyes, gums, rectum and, in women, the vagina. The disease has a very high “case fatality rate”. Between 24 and 88% of people infected with Marburg virus die – usually through extreme blood loss and shock.

    Marburg virus disease is not an airborne illness and is not thought to be contagious before symptoms appear. However, people can remain infectious for months after they have recovered, and pass the disease on through bodily fluids. Men are advised to wear a condom for a year after symptoms first appear.

    Looking for clues

    The Rwandan authorities are working to identify the source of the outbreak, how far it has spread and when the first case occurred.

    Although Marburg virus disease has been reported in seven of 30 districts in the east African nation, the readiness of unaffected districts is also being ensured to mitigate the spread and quickly identify any spillover.

    The World Health Organization (WHO) is working with Rwanda’s neighbouring countries, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, to review their readiness to respond to the outbreak.

    The WHO assesses the risk of the Marburg virus outbreak as “very high” at the national level and “high” at the regional level. However, at a global level, the risk remains low.

    Manal Mohammed does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Marburg virus outbreak in Rwanda – what you need to know – https://theconversation.com/marburg-virus-outbreak-in-rwanda-what-you-need-to-know-240252

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Chagos islands: what the UK-Mauritius agreement means for displaced Chagossians

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Laura Jeffery, Professor of Anthropology of Migration, University of Edinburgh

    Coconut palm fronds are an integral part of Chagossian handicraft. Laura Jeffery, CC BY-NC-ND

    After years of negotiations and legal pressure, the UK and the Republic of Mauritius have agreed that Mauritius is sovereign over the Chagos Archipelago.

    The Chagos Archipelago is a group of seven coral atolls which comprise more than 60 islands in the Indian Ocean. In 1965, as part of negotiations leading to Mauritian independence, the UK government excised the Chagos Archipelago from colonial Mauritius. The UK kept the islands, which are in a globally strategic location, to make the island of Diego Garcia available to the US military for 50 years, later extended by 20 years.

    The islands have been the subject of a diplomatic dispute for decades, with Mauritius maintaining its sovereignty and arguing it was illegally forced to give the archipelago away in exchange for independence.



    Read more:
    UK hands Chagos Islands to Mauritius, marking the end of a longstanding sovereignty dispute

    Under the new political agreement, the UK will provide financial support to Mauritius, including a new trust fund for displaced Chagossians. Mauritius will be able to resettle the Chagos islands, other than Diego Garcia. This island will remain the site of a US-UK military facility for at least 99 years.

    This is a significant moment for decolonisation (albeit incomplete), and potentially a landmark moment for the displaced Chagossian community. Decades after being forcibly exiled, they may finally be able to resettle on some of the Chagos islands.

    Who are the Chagossians?

    The Chagos Archipelago was unpopulated before European expansion in the Indian Ocean, when it was administered as a dependency of colonial Mauritius. French, and later British, colonists populated the islands. This took place first with enslaved labourers, mostly from east Africa and Madagascar via Mauritius, and later with contract workers, mostly from India via Mauritius.

    The economy relied on coconut plantations, which became central to Chagossian culture. Coconut features in Chagossian cuisine, handicrafts and song.

    The population of the Chagos islands rose over the 19th century. It hovered around 1,000 in the first half of the 20th century.

    At the request of the US, the UK authorities depopulated the Chagos Archipelago to make way for the military base. From 1967 to 1973, they forcibly evicted more than 1,500 islanders to Mauritius and Seychelles.

    They did this first by preventing the return of islanders who had gone on trips to Mauritius and Seychelles. Later, they restricted supplies and wound down work on coconut plantations. Finally, they coerced the remaining islanders onto crowded ships.



    Read more:
    How the US and UK worked together to recolonise the Chagos Islands and evict Chagossians

    By 1973, between 1,328 and 1,522 Chagos islanders had been relocated to Mauritius, and 232 to Seychelles. Their forced displacement led to further economic, psychological and cultural harms.

    The British Overseas Territories Act 2002 and the Nationality and Borders Act 2022 awarded UK citizenship to Chagos islanders and their descendants born in exile. Today, several thousand members of the extended Chagossian community live in the UK, while many still live in Mauritius and Seychelles.

    Since 2002, I have conducted anthropological research with the extended and geographically dispersed Chagossian communities. I have witnessed their chronic marginalisation firsthand.

    My research has studied how members of this dispersed and fractured community have sustained their relationships to Chagos through shared cultural practices.

    One example of this is through music. Chagossian sega songs composed on Chagos paint a nuanced picture of the complexities and turbulence of colonial plantation life. Lyrics protest unfavourable social, political, and economic conditions. They lament personal suffering, depict joyful occasions, or jest via suggestive double entendres.

    Meanwhile, sega songs are now also composed in exile. They contrast depictions of the island as an idyllic paradise, with the community’s subsequent experiences of displacement, dislocation and loss.

    These cultural practices have brought the exiled Chagossian community together, and served as a vehicle for cultural and political mobilisation. They have also, I argue, drawn attention to the Chagossian cause from outside communities.

    Resettlement

    Chagossian activists have long campaigned for compensation for their forcible displacement and their legal right of return. They secured limited compensation from the UK government in 1978 and 1982. But they have not yet achieved resettlement in practice.

    It is not yet clear whether displaced Chagossians will be able to return to the islands under the new agreement.

    Members of the Chagossian community hold differing opinions about resettlement and sovereignty. Some are hopeful that the Mauritian government will facilitate resettlement: something the UK refused to do.

    Some Mauritian citizens and Chagos islanders from Diego Garcia are critical of the exclusion of Diego Garcia from the agreement. And many Chagossians are worried that Mauritius might prioritise the interests of Mauritian citizens over non-citizens, or that it might prioritise its economic and military interests over resettlement.

    Many Chagossians are concerned
    that the negotiations involved representatives of the two governments, but not of the displaced Chagossian community.

    The political agreement is subject to the finalisation of a treaty and supporting legal documents. This means there is still time for the governments to involve Chagossians in the conversation.

    Laura Jeffery has previously received funding for Chagos research from the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and the UK Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC).

    – ref. Chagos islands: what the UK-Mauritius agreement means for displaced Chagossians – https://theconversation.com/chagos-islands-what-the-uk-mauritius-agreement-means-for-displaced-chagossians-240581

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Whale sharks on collision course as warming seas may force them into shipping lanes – new study

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Freya Womersley, Postdoctoral Research Scientist, Marine Biological Association

    Global warming has the potential to reshuffle the spaces used by life on Earth, across all ecosystems. And our new research shows whale sharks – the world’s largest fish – could be at risk, as warming oceans may force them into busy human shipping lanes.

    More than 12,000 marine species are expected to redistribute in future as seas warm up. Those animals that are unable to move to remain within suitable environments risk being wiped out entirely.

    But things are different for larger and highly mobile animals that can move freely to find conditions that suit their needs. For them, changing ocean conditions may not be such a huge threat in isolation, as they can migrate to cooler seas. Rather, shifting conditions may force species into new and more dangerous areas where they come into contact with ship propellers and other direct human threats.

    We fear this will happen with whale sharks. These huge sharks can reach up to 18 metres – about four cars end to end – but despite their size and robust appearance, their numbers have already declined by over 50% in the last 75 years.

    Whale sharks are big and slow (and are sharks not whales).
    Sean Steininger / shutterstock

    In previous research we discovered this decline may be partly due to collisions with large ships. Whale sharks are particularly vulnerable as they cruise around feeding on plankton and other tiny organisms, rarely needing to swim faster than human walking pace. While spending long periods moving slowly near the surface, they’re often struck by ships and killed.

    Our new research builds on this previous work. We find that climate change will put these docile giants in even greater danger as their preferred habitats move in into new areas with heavy ship traffic.

    An uncertain future

    The research was carried out by an international team of over 50 scientists from 18 countries involved in the Global Shark Movement Project, using 15 years’ worth of satellite tracking data from almost 350 individually tagged whale sharks.

    Movement tracks were matched to temperature, salinity and other environmental conditions at the time to determine what sort of habitat the sharks preferred. These relationships were then projected forward in time based on climate models (powerful computer programmes that simulate the climate) to reveal which parts of the ocean may in future have similar conditions to those used by the species today.

    Our state-of-the-art approach uncovered totally new areas that may be able to support whale sharks in future, such as US waters in the Pacific in the region of the California bight, Japanese waters in the eastern China Sea and the Atlantic waters of many west African countries. We quickly realised that these regions are home to some of the world’s busiest sea ports and shipping highways, so we overlaid our maps of habitat preference with those of global shipping to determine sharks are expected to run into ships.

    The world’s main shipping lanes, with the busiest lanes coloured yellow. Areas C (US west coast), D (west Africa) and E (east Asia) are expected to become more suitable for whale sharks as the oceans warm.
    Womersley et al / Nature Climate Change, CC BY-SA

    Through this we project that co-occurrence between sharks and ships will be be 15,000 times greater by the end of this century if we continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels, compared to only 20 times greater if we follow a sustainable development scenario.

    This does not mean that collisions will increase by 15,000 times, or even by 20 times, as we can only predict where whale sharks will be in future and the precise number of ships will vary. However, if the sharks do move into these new areas and their busy shipping lanes, increased mortality is a very real possibility.

    We’ve already recorded shark-attached satellite tags abruptly stopping transmissions in shipping lanes, with depth-recording tags showing the sharks slowly sinking – likely dead – to the seafloor.

    Changing tack

    Our results are alarming but highlight that we do have the capacity to change the population trajectory for whale sharks. In this case, through mitigating climate change, we can also indirectly ensure that the ocean is a safer place for some of its largest residents.

    We already know which strategies to trial for limiting collisions between ships and sharks. In February 2024 a meeting of signatories to the UN’s convention on the conservation of migratory species put forward a series of recommendations with specific focus on whale sharks. These include slowing speeds and re-routing around key sites, and setting up a collision-reporting network. It is now up to individual governments to take action.

    It’s possible that other species will experience similar pressures as a result of climate change. For example, heat waves in the oceans may force other sharks into cooler surface waters which are being exploited by longline fisheries, or into deeper depths where there is less oxygen.

    It’s time to shift our focus on to these interacting stressors in future, so that we can start to quantify the mosaic of threats that marine animals must endure in the oceans of tomorrow and protect those most at risk.

    Freya Womersley receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) through a University of Southampton INSPIRE DTP PhD Studentship. She is affiliated with the Marine Biological Association (MBA) in Plymouth, UK and the Global Shark Movement Project, which is based at the MBA.

    David Sims receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the European Research Council (ERC), and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. He is affiliated with the Marine Biological Association (MBA) in Plymouth, UK, and the Global Shark Movement Project, which is based at the MBA.

    – ref. Whale sharks on collision course as warming seas may force them into shipping lanes – new study – https://theconversation.com/whale-sharks-on-collision-course-as-warming-seas-may-force-them-into-shipping-lanes-new-study-240727

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –