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Category: Reportage

  • MIL-OSI Global: Fungal infections known as valley fever could spike this fall – 3 epidemiologists explain how to protect yourself

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jennifer Head, Assistant Professor of Epidemiology, University of Michigan

    As the climate warms and landscapes become drier, researchers fear that valley fever could spread across other regions of the U.S. Carolyn Van Houten/The Washington Post via Getty Images

    As the climate warms, the southwestern U.S. is increasingly experiencing weather whiplash as the region swings from drought to flooding and back again. As a result, the public is hearing more about little-known infectious diseases, such as valley fever.

    In May 2024, about 20,000 people attended a music festival in Buena Vista Lake, California. In the months that followed, at least 19 developed valley fever, and eight were hospitalized from their infection. This outbreak follows a dramatic increase of more than 800% in valley fever infections in California between 2000 and 2018.

    In 2023, California reported the second-highest number of valley fever cases on record, with more than 9,000 cases reported statewide. And between April 2023 and March 2024, California provisionally reported 10,593 cases – 40% more than during the same period the prior year.

    The Conversation U.S. asked Jennifer Head, Simon Camponuri and Alexandra Heaney – researchers specializing in the epidemiology of valley fever – to explain what valley fever is, and what might explain its rise in recent years.

    What is valley fever, and how do you get infected?

    Valley fever is the common name for a disease called coccidioidomycosis, which is an infection caused by pathogenic fungi from the Coccidioides genus. The fungi are primarily found in arid soils of the southwestern United States, as well as parts of Central and South America.

    When the fungus has access to moisture and nutrients, it grows long, branching fungal chains throughout the soil. When the soil dries out, these chains fragment to form fungal spores, which can be stirred up into the air when the soil is disturbed, such as by wind or digging. Airborne spores can then be inhaled and cause a respiratory infection.

    Cases of valley fever are typically highest in California’s southern San Joaquin Valley and southern Arizona, but they have been increasing outside of these regions. Between 2000 and 2018, the incidence of valley fever cases increased fifteenfold in the northern San Joaquin Valley and eightfold along the Southern California coast. And between 2014 and 2018, incidence increased by more than eightfold along the central coast.

    Because of these trends and the virulence of the pathogen that causes valley fever, it is listed as a priority pathogen by the World Health Organization. Historically, fungal infections have received very little attention and resources. By creating this list, the WHO is hoping to galvanize action surrounding listed pathogens, including getting more resources for research as well as the development of new treatments.

    Coccidioides immitis, one of the two species of fungus that cause valley fever.
    Smith Collection-Gado/Archive Photos via Getty Images

    What are the symptoms, and what should people be looking for?

    After inhaling fungal spores from the environment, Coccidioides initially infects the lungs, causing symptoms like mild to severe cough, fever, difficulty breathing, chest pain and tiredness. Valley fever symptoms can resemble other common respiratory infections, so it’s important for people to get checked by a doctor if they’ve experienced prolonged symptoms, particularly if they have been given antibiotics that they are not responding to.

    In California and Arizona, an estimated one-third of community-acquired pneumonia cases – or pneumonia acquired outside of the hospital – are caused by valley fever. However, only a fraction of community-acquired pneumonia cases get tested for it, so it’s likely the number of valley fever cases is significantly higher. Among diagnosed cases, half experienced symptoms for two months or more before being diagnosed.

    In 5% to 10% of cases, the fungus can spread from the lungs to other parts of the body, such as the central nervous system, liver and bones, causing meningitis or arthritis-like symptoms. These cases can be severe and possibly fatal.

    Antifungal treatment is available, and early diagnosis and treatment is critical for better outcomes.

    Jose Epifanio Sanchez Trujeque of Lebec, Calif., spent four months in the hospital after contracting valley fever in 2023.
    The Washington Post/Getty Images

    What time of year should you be most concerned?

    Valley fever cases can occur year-round, but in California, cases reported via surveillance systems tend to increase starting in August and September, peak in November and return to background levels in January and February.

    Researchers believe that patients are likely exposed to the fungus in the summer and early fall months, typically one to three months prior to their diagnosis. This delay accounts for time between when patients are exposed, develop symptoms and are diagnosed with the disease. While cases peak in the fall on average, seasonal strength and timing varies regionally.

    Our research shows that this seasonal surge in the fall is especially strong following wetter winters and that alternation between dry and wet conditions is associated with increased incidence in fall months.

    Valley fever cases in California nearly doubled following wet winters that occurred one and two years after the 2007-2009 and 2012-2015 droughts.

    In 2023, California experienced a similar transition, with an extreme drought occurring between 2020-2022 followed by heavy precipitation in the winter of 2022-2023.

    This transition was followed by a near-record spike in cases in 2023. The state experienced another wet winter during the 2023-2024 wet season, furthering concern about continued high risk for valley fever in 2024.

    Our research team recently developed a model to forecast valley fever cases that will occur between April 2024 and March 2025 in California. We forecast that the state is likely to see another spike in cases during the fall and winter of 2024, on par with the spike in 2023.

    During high-risk periods, clinicians should consider valley fever as a potential diagnosis. This is especially true when evaluating a patient presenting with valley fever symptoms or a respiratory illness who lives in, works in or traveled to an endemic or emerging region.

    We are currently working to characterize seasonal disease patterns in Arizona as well, which are different from California’s. This is likely because Arizona has two rainy seasons.

    Are some people at greater risk than others?

    Those who spend time or work outdoors in areas where valley fever is common, especially where they may be exposed to dirt and dust, are more likely to get it.

    While healthy people are still at risk of infection, certain factors can increase the likelihood of developing severe disease from valley fever. These include being an adult 60 years or older, having diabetes, HIV or another condition that weakens the immune system, or being pregnant. People who are Black or Filipino also have been noted to have a higher risk of severe disease, which may relate to more exposure to the fungal spores, underlying health conditions, inequities in accessing care or other possible predispositions.

    People who work around dry, dusty conditions are at a higher risk of contracting valley fever.
    David McNew/Getty Images News via Getty Images

    How can you protect yourself from getting valley fever?

    People who live and work in the regions where the fungus is found should avoid exposure to dust as much as possible. When it is windy outside and the air is dusty, stay indoors and keep windows and doors closed.

    When driving through a dusty area, limit vehicle speed, keep car windows closed and recirculate the air, if possible. When working outdoors, use dust suppression techniques, including wetting soil before digging to prevent stirring up dust, and installing fencing, windbreaks and vegetation where possible.

    For those who must directly stir up soil or be in dusty conditions, such as while doing construction or gardening work, consider using an N95 mask to limit dust inhalation.

    Jennifer Head receives funding from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) of the National Institutes of Health.

    Alexandra K. Heaney receives funding from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) of the National Institutes of Health.

    Simon Camponuri receives funding from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) of the National Institutes of Health and from the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    – ref. Fungal infections known as valley fever could spike this fall – 3 epidemiologists explain how to protect yourself – https://theconversation.com/fungal-infections-known-as-valley-fever-could-spike-this-fall-3-epidemiologists-explain-how-to-protect-yourself-238972

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Drug prices improved under Biden-Harris and Trump − but not for everyone, and not enough

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By C. Michael White, Distinguished Professor of Pharmacy Practice, University of Connecticut

    Negotiations to reduce drug prices can sometimes shift costs onto consumers. rudisill/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    When it comes to drug pricing, the Trump and Biden-Harris administrations both have some very modest wins to tout.

    As director of the Health Outcomes, Policy, and Evidence Synthesis group at the University of Connecticut School of Pharmacy, I teach and study about the ethics of prescription drug prices and the complexities of drug pricing nationally.

    Delving into the presidential candidates’ successes on a number of drug-pricing policies, you’ll see a continuation of progress across the administrations. Neither the Trump administration nor the Biden-Harris administration, however, has done anything to truly lower drug prices for the majority of Americans.

    $35 insulin

    Insulin is a necessity for patients with diabetes. But from January 2014 to April 2019, the average price per unit went from US$0.22 to $0.34 before dropping back slightly by July 2023 to $0.29 per unit. Since dosing is weight-based, insulin costs for someone weighing 154 pounds would have risen from $231 to $357 a month from 2014 to 2019 and dropped to $305 a month by 2023. Price increases have led some patients to space out their medications by taking less than the dose they need for good blood sugar control. One study estimated that over 25% of patients in an urban diabetes center were underusing their insulin.

    In July 2020, the Trump administration enacted a $35 cap on insulin copayments via executive order. In effect, it made participating Medicare Part D programs limit the price of just one of each type of insulin product to $35. For instance, if there were six short-acting insulin products on an insurance plan’s approved drug list, the insurer had to offer one vial form and one pen form at $35.

    These price changes did not go into effect during Trump’s presidency. By 2022, only about 800,000 people – or around 11% of the more than 7.4 million people in the U.S. who use insulin to regulate their blood sugar – saw their prices reduced.

    Millions of Americans need insulin to manage their diabetes.
    Spencer Platt/Getty Images

    In August 2022, the Biden-Harris administration signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law. This maintained the $35 insulin cap with the same stipulations but made the program mandatory for all Medicare Part D and Medicare Part B members. This expanded the number of people who could benefit from cheaper insulin to 3.3 million.

    This still doesn’t help a majority of diabetics. If you don’t have Medicare, the $35 reduction does not apply to you. Furthermore, pharmaceutical companies are not responsible for lowering insulin costs under these policies, but health plans are on the hook for lowering copayments. Costs could be passed along to beneficiaries in future Medicare premiums.

    Importing Canadian drugs

    Americans pay nearly 2.6 times more for prescription drugs than people in other high-income countries. One way regulators have tried to reduce prices is to simply import drugs at the prices pharmaceutical companies charge those countries rather than those charged to U.S. consumers.

    In July 2019, the Trump administration proposed importing drugs from Canada as a way to share Canadians’ lower drug costs with American consumers. He signed an executive order allowing the Food and Drug Administration to create the rules under which states could import the drugs. When President Joe Biden came into office, he left the executive order in place and the rulemaking process continued.

    Some Americans have traveled across borders for cheaper medications.
    Jeff Haynes/AFP via Getty Images

    No state under the Trump or Biden-Harris administrations has yet been able to successfully import a Canadian drug product. In January 2024, however, the Food and Drug Administration approved Florida’s plan to import Canadian drugs, the first state to receive the green light. Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Texas have applications pending as of September 2024.

    Unfortunately, it is unlkely that Canada would allow their prescription drugs to be shipped in large quantities to American consumers, not without imposing high tariffs as a disincentive. That is because drug manufacturers could limit supplies to Canada and cause shortages if drugs are moved to the U.S. Manufacturers could also be less willing to negotiate lower prices for Canadians if that will hurt U.S. profits.

    Negotiating with the pharmaceutical industry

    Be it prescription drugs or cars, both buyer and seller must agree on a price for a successful sale to occur. If the potential buyer is unwilling to walk away from negotiations, you will not get the seller’s best price. One reason U.S. drug prices are higher than other countries’ is because the government is not a shrewd negotiator.

    Negotiations that result in major reductions in drug prices frequently result from the drug manufacturer losing access to patients on a certain health plan or ending up in a higher drug tier that substantially raises a patient’s copay. However, if the buyer refuses the seller’s final offer, their members or citizens lose access to those drugs. While major private health plans and pharmacy benefit managers are able to directly negotiate drug prices with pharmaceutical manufacturers, often with substantial savings, Medicare was prevented from doing so by federal law until recently.

    In May 2018, the Trump administration released a so-called blueprint for reducing prescription drug prices that included negotiating Medicare prescription drug prices with the pharmaceutical industry. This plan wasn’t enacted during his term.

    In August 2022, under the Biden-Harris administration, the Inflation Reduction Act enabled price negotiation and specified the number of drugs that negotiations could include in a year.

    The Inflation Reduction Act allowed Medicare to negotiate drug prices for the first time.

    The first negotiation between Medicare and the pharmaceutical industry took place over the summer of 2024, lowering costs for 10 Medicare Part D drugs, which include the blood thinner Xarelto and the drugs Farxiga and Jardiance, which treat Type 2 diabetes, heart failure and kidney disease. The resulting $1.5 billion in savings will be extended in 2026 to the approximately 8.8 million Medicare Part D patients who are taking these drugs. The prices for these drugs are still twice what they are in four other developed countries.

    Prices will be negotiated for another 15 Medicare Part D drugs in 2027. Thereafter, drug negotiations could include Medicare Part D drugs, which you pick up from your pharmacy, and Medicare Part B drugs, which are administered or received from your doctor’s office.

    Another aspect of the Inflation Reduction Act is capping out-of-pocket expenses at $2,000. This won’t go into effect until 2025, however, and simply shifts costs above the cap onto taxpayers.

    Continuation of progress

    It is often challenging to attribute policy successes to one administration versus another when assessing complex issues such as drug pricing. There were ideas initiated during the Trump administration that did not come to fruition until the Biden-Harris administration implemented and expanded on them.

    For example, Medicare price negotiation, proposed in a Trump administration “blueprint,” was codified in law by President Biden, but the fruits of this policy will not be seen until the next administration. And regardless of who you attribute this success to, only a portion of people on Medicare will see any relief from high drug prices as a result.

    Truly lowering the costs of prescription drugs would require identifying the maximum price the nation is willing to pay for benefits, such as cost per quality adjusted life year at the federal, state and private payer levels, and being willing to walk away from negotiations if the price exceeds that level. This would not be a panacea, though, especially for patients with rare and ultrarare diseases, and would need to be eased in over time to avoid bankrupting the industry.

    C. Michael White does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Drug prices improved under Biden-Harris and Trump − but not for everyone, and not enough – https://theconversation.com/drug-prices-improved-under-biden-harris-and-trump-but-not-for-everyone-and-not-enough-238407

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How the US government can stop ‘churches’ from getting treated like real churches by the IRS

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Lloyd Hitoshi Mayer, Professor of Law, University of Notre Dame

    Uniformed members of Trail Life USA present the colors at the Family Research Council’s 2018 Values Voter Summit. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

    The Family Research Council is a conservative advocacy group with a “biblical worldview.” While it has a church ministries department that works with churches from several evangelical Christian denominations that share its perspectives, it does not represent a single denomination. Although its activities are primarily focused on policy, advocacy, government lobbying and public communication, the Internal Revenue Service granted the council’s application to be treated as “an association of churches” in 2020.

    Concerned that the IRS had erred in allowing the council and similar groups to be designated churches or associations of churches, Democratic members of the House of Representatives sent the Treasury secretary and the IRS commissioner letters in 2022 and 2024 expressing alarm. The House Democrats pointed to what appeared to be “abuse” of the tax code and asked the IRS to “determine whether existing guidance is sufficient to prevent abuse and what resources or Congressional actions are needed.”

    As a professor of nonprofit law, I believe some groups that aren’t churches or associations of churches want to be designated that way to avoid the scrutiny being a charitable organization otherwise requires. At the same time, some other groups that should qualify as churches may have difficulty doing so because of the IRS’ outdated test for that status.

    Together with my colleague Ellen P. Aprill, I recently published a paper outlining two main arguments in favor of revising the federal government’s definitions of churches as they pertain to tax law.

    No 990s means less scrutiny

    All charitable nonprofits, including churches, get the same basic benefits under federal tax law. This means they don’t have to pay taxes on their revenue and that donors can deduct the value of their gifts from their taxable income – as long as they itemize deductions on their tax return.

    Unlike other tax-exempt charities, churches don’t have to file 990 forms. That means the public does not have access to churches’ staff pay, board membership and funding details, which are in this publicly available tax form that all other charities must complete every year. The availability of 990 forms enhances the transparency and accountability of the nonprofit sector.

    And churches and associations of churches are unlikely to get audited by the IRS. Federal law requires that a senior IRS official “reasonably believes” the church or association has violated federal tax rules before beginning an investigation. This means that an official must have reason to believe the organization has violated federal tax law before obtaining any information from the organization.

    This standard is higher than what’s needed before an audit can begin for all other tax-exempt organizations and indeed all taxpayers. For everyone else, the IRS is free to begin an examination based only on a suspicion of a violation or even based on random selection.

    Also, unlike other tax-exempt charities, churches and church associations are automatically eligible for their tax-exempt status. They don’t have to apply for it.

    Why churches get special treatment

    Congress has passed laws granting churches and what it calls “integrated auxiliaries” and “conventions or associations of churches” special protections because the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution protects religious freedom.

    Churches include houses of worship ranging in size from a handful of parishioners to megachurches with 10,000 or more people attending weekly services. Houses of worship of all faiths, including synagogues, mosques and temples, count as churches, according to the IRS.

    Integrated auxiliaries are church schools and other organizations affiliated with churches or conventions and primarily supported by internal church sources, as opposed to by the public or government.

    Conventions or associations of churches are organizations that have houses of worship from either a single denomination or from multiple denominations as their members. Most denominational bodies, such as the executive committee of the Southern Baptist Convention and the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, are likely conventions or associations of churches, although the IRS does not publish a list of such entities.

    Not every religious nonprofit belongs in one of these categories.

    For example, the University of Notre Dame, where I teach law students and conduct legal research, and World Vision, a global humanitarian group, are both religious organizations that do not fall into any of these categories. This makes sense, because Notre Dame and World Vision are primarily engaged in activities other than fostering a religious congregation or coordinating the activities of churches within a single denomination.

    The IRS has long relied on a 14-factor test to distinguish churches from the other religious nonprofits. Examples of those factors include having ordained ministers, a formal doctrine, a distinct membership and a regular congregation attending religious services.

    It’s not necessary for all the factors to apply to pass this test.

    Yet for almost as long, courts have been uncomfortable with this test because it draws heavily on the traditional characteristics of Protestant Christian churches, as the U.S. Court of Federal Claims explained in a 2009 ruling. This system therefore may be a poor fit for houses of worship of other faiths, especially given the increasing diversity of faith communities.

    These courts have instead adopted an “associational test.” It focuses on whether the organization’s congregants hold religious services on a regular basis and gather in person on other occasions.

    With the growth of virtual and televised religious services, an update of this test is overdue.

    A couple get married in May 2020 in a mostly empty church, with a screen set up so guests can watch over Zoom.
    Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

    Proposed solutions

    Aprill and I recommend that the IRS change its definition for churches to the associational one adopted by some courts in rulings as early as 1980. As the U.S. Court of Federal Claims explained in that 2009 ruling, this test focuses on whether a body of believers assembles regularly to worship. Given technological advances, the IRS should also make it clear that this test can be satisfied through remote participation in religious services using interactive, teleconferencing apps such as Zoom.

    This definition would be also better suited for congregations of all faiths because some faiths do not prioritize many of the factors included in the IRS test, such as having a formal code of doctrine or requiring members to not be associated with other houses of worship or faiths. And it would better reflect how some Americans participate in religious services today.

    We recommend that the IRS revisit its test for being a church and that Congress pass a law that would change the definition of church associations. The new law could limit associations of churches to organizations that represent a single denomination, as Congress likely initially intended.

    This latter change would make it harder for religious organizations that are primarily involved in bringing churches from multiple faiths together to engage in advocacy or other activities to obtain this status and the lack of transparency and accountability that come with it. We believe Congress, not the IRS, should make this change because of the potential political tensions that narrowing the definition could create.

    We don’t think the changes would impinge upon the special role that churches have in our society. Indeed, the revised test for qualifying as a church would better fit with both the increasing variety of faiths in our country and technological advancements.

    Lloyd Hitoshi Mayer is affiliated with the University of Notre Dame, a tax-exempt religious nonprofit corporation. Lloyd Hitoshi Mayer is also affiliated with South Bend City Church, a tax-exempt religious nonprofit corporation that is classified as a church for federal tax purposes.

    – ref. How the US government can stop ‘churches’ from getting treated like real churches by the IRS – https://theconversation.com/how-the-us-government-can-stop-churches-from-getting-treated-like-real-churches-by-the-irs-237922

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Big lithium plans for Imperial Valley, one of California’s poorest regions, raise a bigger question: Who should benefit?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Manuel Pastor, Distinguished Professor of Sociology and American Studies & Ethnicity, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

    The edge of the Salton Sea, a heavily polluted lake with large geothermal and lithium resources beneath it. Manuel Pastor

    Imperial County consistently ranks among the most economically distressed places in California. Its Salton Sea, the state’s biggest and most toxic lake, is an environmental disaster. And the region’s politics have been dominated by a conservative white elite, despite its supermajority Latino population.

    The county also happens to be sitting on enough lithium to produce nearly 400 million batteries, sufficient to completely revamp the American auto fleet to electric propulsion. Even better, that lithium could be extracted in a way consistent with broader goals to reduce pollution.

    The traditional ways to extract lithium involve either hard rock mining, which generates lots of waste, or large evaporation ponds, which waste a lot of water. In Imperial Valley, companies are pioneering a third method. They are extracting the mineral from the underground briny water brought up during geothermal energy production and then injecting that briny water back into the ground in a closed loop. It promises to yield the cleanest, greenest lithium on the planet.

    The hope of a clean energy future has excited investors and public officials so much that the area is being rechristened as “Lithium Valley.”

    In a region desperate for jobs and income, the prospect of a “white gold rush” is appealing. Public officials have been working to roll out the red carpet for big investors, including trying to create a clear plan for infrastructure and a quicker permitting process. To get community groups’ support, they are playing up the potential for jobs, including company commitments to hire local workers.

    But Imperial Valley residents who have been on the butt end of get-rich schemes around water and real estate in the past are worried that their political leaders may be giving away the store. As we explore in our new book, “Charging Forward: Lithium Valley, Electric Vehicles and a Just Future,” the U.S. has an opportunity to ensure that these residents directly benefit from the lithium extraction boom, which is an important part of the global shift to clean energy.

    Possibilities and perils in ‘Lithium Valley’

    Imperial Valley is emblematic of the potential and the risks that have long faced impoverished communities in resource-rich regions.

    To understand the possibilities and perils in Imperial Valley, it’s useful to remember that the world is not just moving away from fossil fuel extraction but toward more mineral extraction. Today’s battery technology – necessary for electric vehicles and energy storage – relies on minerals including cobalt, magnesium, nickel and graphite. And mineral extraction is often accompanied by obscured environmental risks.

    A prototype for CTR’s lithium-producing geothermal facility, in the Hell’s Kitchen area of Imperial Valley.
    Manuel Pastor

    In Imperial Valley, environmental and community organizations are worried about lithium extraction’s water use, waste and air pollution as production steps up and truck traffic increases. When your region’s childhood asthma rate is already more than twice the national average, and dust from the drying lake is toxic, kicking up a “little extra dust” is a big deal.

    Comite Civico del Valle, a long-established environmental justice organization in Imperial Valley, has sued to slow down a streamlined permitting process for Controlled Thermal Resources, a company planning lithium extraction there. The group’s concern is that inadequate environmental reviews could result in harm to residents’ health. Both the company and public officials are warning that the lawsuit could stop the lithium boom before it begins.

    Local communities are also concerned about how much benefit they will see while the industry profits. They note that the electric vehicle boom driving lithium demand occurred precisely because of public policy. Tesla, for example, has benefited from multiple rounds of state and federal zero-emissions vehicle incentives, including the sale of emissions credits that accounted for 85% of Tesla’s gross margin in 2009 and rose to US$1.8 billion a year by 2023.

    Behind these policies and financial incentives have been public will and taxpayer money.

    Young advocates with the Imperial Valley Equity & Justice Coalition have been spreading their concerns through the community.
    Chris Benner

    We believe that local residents, not just companies, deserve a return. Rather than promising to just pay for community “benefits,” such as environmental mitigation, contributions to municipal coffers or jobs, the companies could pay “dividends” directly to local residents and communities.

    There are models of this dividend approach. For example, the Alaska Permanent Fund gives an annual amount to all residents of that state from revenues obtained from the oil beneath the ground.

    In Imperial Valley, the actual ownership of the lithium is complex, involving a mix of privately owned subsurface rights, public lease rights obtained by companies and public rights held by the regional water district to whom companies will pay royalties.

    Given the ownership complexities and the desire to benefit as development takes place, local authorities and community organizations persuaded the state in 2022 to pass a per-metric-ton lithium tax to address local needs.

    Controlled Thermal Resources CEO Rod Colwell, right, walks near the Salton Sea with a colleague.
    AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

    That “flat tax” was bitterly resisted by some in the emerging industry on the grounds that it could make Imperial Valley’s less-polluting extraction method too costly to compete with environmentally damaging imports; after the vote, CTR’s CEO called the legislators “clowns.” Meanwhile, CTR has also agreed to hire union workers in the construction phase. Everyone – companies, communities and government officials – is struggling to balance economic viability with accountability.

    Lessons for a just transition

    The hesitance of low-income Imperial Valley residents to immediately buy into the lithium vision is deeply rooted in history.

    Decades of racial exclusion, patronizing practices and broken promises have led to deep distrust of outsiders who assert that things will be better this time.

    Irrigation at the turn of the last century was supposed to bring an agriculture boom, but the early result was a broken canal that released enough water over nearly two years of disrepair to create what is now the Salton Sea. The Salton Sea was then supposed to fuel recreational tourism, but the failure to replenish it with anything but agricultural runoff helped to kill fish, birds and recreation. A more recent scheme to attract solar farms in recent decades delivered little employment and more worries about agricultural displacement.

    You can still find old billboards promising a resort life on the Salton Sea, which today is one of the state’s most polluted lakes. Wind kicks up toxic dust when the water is low.
    Manuel Pastor

    Building the supply chain here, too

    In recent years, some people have pinned their hopes on lithium. The main site so far in Imperial Valley has been CTR’s Hell’s Kitchen. It’s a fitting moniker on summer days when temperatures regularly exceed 110 degrees.

    Ensuring that the surrounding communities benefit from this new lithium boom will require thinking about how to attract not just companies extracting the lithium but also those that will use it. So far, Imperial County has had limited success in attracting related industries. In 2023, a company named Statevolt said it would build a “gigafactory” there to assemble batteries. However, the company’s previous efforts – Britishvolt in the United Kingdom and Italvot in Italy – have stalled without any volts being produced. Imperial County will need serious suitors to make a go of it.

    A potentially promising future for modern transportation and energy storage may be brewing in Imperial Valley. But getting to a brighter future for everyone will require remembering a lesson from the past: that community investments tend to be hard-won. We believe that ensuring everyone benefits long term is essential for achieving a more inclusive and sustainable future.

    Research for the book from which this article draws was supported by the James Irvine Foundation, New Energy Nexus, the California Wellness Foundation, and Open Society Foundations. Manuel Pastor was also supported by a Residency at the Rockefeller Foundation’s Bellagio Center.

    Research for the book from which this article draws was supported by the James Irvine Foundation, New Energy Nexus, the California Wellness Foundation, and Open Society Foundations. Chris Benner was also supported by a Residency at the Rockefeller Foundation’s Bellagio Center.

    – ref. Big lithium plans for Imperial Valley, one of California’s poorest regions, raise a bigger question: Who should benefit? – https://theconversation.com/big-lithium-plans-for-imperial-valley-one-of-californias-poorest-regions-raise-a-bigger-question-who-should-benefit-238397

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Grocery stores that donate expiring food − instead of price discounting or discarding − make higher profits

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By John Lowrey, Assistant Professor of Supply Chain and Health Sciences, Northeastern University

    This new food pantry opened on Long Island in September 2024. Alejandra Villa Loarca/Newsday RM via Getty Images

    All major supermarkets and retailers that sell groceries, such as Kroger, Walmart and Costco, give large amounts of food to food banks and pantries. In 2022, retailers donated close to 2 billion pounds of food across the United States, which amounted to US$3.5 billion that year. The estimated value of donated food was a little less than $2 per pound in 2022.

    Retailers donate products that are typically packaged, palatable and safe for consumption, yet unsuitable for sale due to quality concerns, such as minor blemishes. Since these items can go a long way to feeding hungry people, donations represent one of the best uses of leftover or surplus food.

    Donations are also technically acts of charity, and the companies responsible for them get tax breaks. This means that donations boost profits by lowering costs. There’s a second effect of donations on a store’s bottom line: They improve the quality of food on the store’s shelves and increase revenue from food sales.

    As a supply chain scholar who studies food banks, I worked with a team of economists to estimate the effects of retail food donations. We used sales data for five perishable food categories sold by two competing retail chains, with stores located in a large, Midwestern metropolitan area. We found that stores that remove items on the brink of expiration, donate them to food banks and fill up the emptied shelf space with fresher inventory get more revenue from sales and earn higher profits.

    Retailers donate 30% of what food banks give their clients

    U.S. food banks, which have been operating for more than 50 years, give away over 6 billion pounds of food annually.

    They get about 30% of that food for free from supermarkets and big-box retailers that sell groceries. Prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, retailers supplied more than twice as much food to food banks than the federal government did. The volume of food supplied by federal programs administered by the United States Department of Agriculture, such as the Emergency Food Assistance Program, have steadily increased since 2020, to now almost match the volume of food donated by retailers.

    In 2022, for example, the network of more than 200 Feeding America member food banks procured about 2 billion pounds from retailers and almost 1.5 billion pounds from government programs.

    The remaining 2.88 billion pounds of food were either purchased directly, provided by farmers, donated by food processing companies or donated by people and organizations in local communities.

    Despite several federal programs that help low-income people get food and the nation’s robust network of food banks and food pantries, nearly 50 million Americans are experiencing food insecurity. That means they can’t get enough nutritious food to eat at least some of the time.

    Retail donation routines are established but inconsistent

    When food on a store’s shelves is on the verge of expiration, store managers have three options. They can donate or discard it, or sell it at a discount.

    Stores that regularly donate food have established routines for when they set aside about-to-expire food to give away. However, these routines are often inconsistent.

    Many stores donate only on a seasonal basis or just give away certain kinds of food. For example, they might donate only meat, baked goods or fruits and vegetables. In many cases, donations take a backseat to more immediate priorities, such as customer service.

    Those realities can increase the likelihood that food will land at the dump instead of on somebody’s table.

    Although millions of Americans struggle to find their next meal, close to 40% of food gets thrown out along the supply chain, as food moves between agricultural producers, factories, retailers and consumers. This is largely due to logistical challenges: It’s hard to transport and distribute highly perishable food.

    Discounted meat is displayed at a San Rafael, Calif., grocery store in September 2024.
    Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

    Discounts on food can undercut sales

    Stores often prefer to sell food on the brink of expiration at a discount rather than donate it or throw it out due to the money they recoup that way. This option, however, also keeps the discounted food on the shelf, where it takes up valuable space that could otherwise hold fresher inventory.

    Shelf space dedicated to the sale and promotion of full-priced products competes with that for price-discounted food. Stocking perishable foods that are starting to look iffy – such as bananas with brown spots sold alongside unblemished yellow bananas – could harm a retailer’s image if shoppers start to question the store’s quality.

    In other words, if consumers make judgments based on all the produce that’s on display, then it may be better for stores if they don’t sell sad-looking bananas and instead just give them away.

    My research team calls this practice “preemptive removal.” Increasing the average quality level of food on display does more than improve a store’s appearance. We used panel data with over 20,000 observations, and we included 21 retail stores that compete in a similar market geography. The five fresh food categories were bakery, dairy, deli, meat and produce.

    Stores that donated food, instead of discounting it, may have made better use of the limited room to display fresher inventory. My research team found that food donations can increase average food prices by up to 1%, which corresponds to a 33% increase in profit margins. Profit margins for supermarkets and other food retailers are quite low and typically hover below 3%.

    That means even a small increment in food prices, even a 1% bump up, can translate into significantly higher profits for retailers. At the same time, increasing the volume of retail food donations would get more food to people who need it, limit hunger and reduce food insecurity.

    Prof Lowrey has consulted with several Feeding America member Food Banks on procurement and food-distribution-related supply chain projects. He has also served on an advisory board to the Academy of Nutrition & Dietetics, focused on supply chain responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in the emergency feeding network. His research has been funded by the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (National Institute for Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture).

    – ref. Grocery stores that donate expiring food − instead of price discounting or discarding − make higher profits – https://theconversation.com/grocery-stores-that-donate-expiring-food-instead-of-price-discounting-or-discarding-make-higher-profits-234998

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Giving feedback is a skill: 3 tips on how to do it well for students

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Martina van Heerden, Senior Lecturer in English for Educational Development, University of the Western Cape

    It can be difficult to tell someone what you think of their work, even if you mean well and even if you think they’re doing a good job. Sometimes the person doesn’t understand what you mean, or doesn’t respond the way you’d hoped. Feedback should contribute to learning, but you might sometimes wonder if it’s any use at all. South African university lecturer Martina van Heerden studied the art of giving feedback to students in higher education. Her insights and three top tips are useful for effective communication in many areas of life.

    Why did you decide to study feedback?

    As a tutor, I initially did not get training on how to give feedback to students on their essays. After a while, I started thinking more about what exactly I was trying to say and do with my feedback. For example, if I told a student “your argument lacks depth”, was I just telling the to make a stronger argument in this essay, or was there a “deeper message”?

    So, in my PhD, I explored “what lies beneath” our feedback. What I found is that often feedback has very specific messages for students, largely about what is valued in a particular context; what the student is expected to know in that discipline.

    Feedback is a big concern in higher education globally. It is fairly well researched and most research identifies various problems with it. Students don’t seem to take up the feedback, or there are different understandings of its purpose, or it’s not as effective as it should be because of academic language and conventions. The blame tends to be put on students.

    I wondered if the problem lay instead with how educators approach and give feedback.

    Focusing on English literature studies, I analysed written comments given to first year students and worked with the tutors giving the feedback. English literature is a tricky discipline to give feedback in as it involves balancing language, literature and academic literacy aspects. Focusing too much on one aspect in feedback could mislead students.

    What did you find?

    There was a bit of misalignment between the purpose and the practice of feedback.

    Ideally, the underlying message of feedback in literature studies should be to develop students’ ability to think critically and analytically about texts. It could do this, for example, by asking questions that stimulate thinking around the topics and themes of the text (rather than asking students to merely provide more information on it).

    Most of the feedback in my study, however, focused on correcting surface-level errors like grammar and spelling. Although there is nothing wrong with this in itself, it could mislead students about what is valued in the discipline.

    Feedback is often quite frustrating for both students and educators – both research and practice wisdom attest to this. Educators are frustrated because students don’t seem to learn from feedback, and students are frustrated because they are getting what they feel is unhelpful feedback. These are global concerns. There is a big discrepancy between how useful educators and students perceive feedback to be.

    My work and other research highlights the importance of seeing feedback as a literacy – that is, as a skill – that needs to be developed deliberately.

    Too often, it is assumed that educators will know how to give effective feedback, or it is assumed that students will know what to do with feedback. But a lot of the time, they don’t – we go by our instincts and what is perhaps easier to identify and correct. For feedback to actually “feed forward” – beyond a specific essay or task – the skill needs to be developed.

    How can people give better feedback?

    I recommend asking yourself three questions:

    1.) What do I want to achieve with my feedback? Ask yourself if you just want to help students pass this essay or do well in this task, or if you want them to learn something. If they need to learn something, what should they learn?

    2.) How understandable is my feedback language? The language of feedback may be steeped in academic, professional, or industry terms which you take for granted. Or you may have developed your own feedback shorthand. This might be easy for you to understand – you’re the one writing it – but that doesn’t mean a student will. So, ask yourself whether someone who is not you would understand your feedback.

    3.) What do I want my students to do with my feedback? Too often, comments don’t really give students guidance on what to do. Correcting errors and making statements about students’ work takes agency and action away from students. Using questions and suggestions means that students become more active in the feedback process.

    Feedback is important for learning and development. Too often, though, it becomes another obstacle that has to be overcome. Useful, clear, actionable feedback can help students become better writers, researchers, thinkers and scholars.

    Martina van Heerden is a member of the South African Association of Academic Literacy Practitioners.

    – ref. Giving feedback is a skill: 3 tips on how to do it well for students – https://theconversation.com/giving-feedback-is-a-skill-3-tips-on-how-to-do-it-well-for-students-240572

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The European Union is becoming too obsessed with defence

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Richard Youngs, Professor of International and European Politics, University of Warwick

    A new team of 26 leaders has been appointed to the European Commission, reflecting a carefully crafted balance of political ideologies and member states. Each will take on a different portfolio, from democracy to agriculture to innovation.

    And for the first time, the EU will have a dedicated defence commissioner in the form of Lithuania’s Andrius Kubilius.

    Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has made it clear that in her second term, the primary focus will be defence and security issues. She wants to convert the EU into a “security project” and has created the new post to build the bloc’s military capacities and cooperation.

    The last EU Commission that ran from 2019 to this year declared itself “geopolitical”. Under this label, it moved the European Union towards a heightened concern with military capabilities and hard power.

    Most observers see this as a positive aspect of the last commission. And there is a striking degree of supportive consensus that the military-power shift needs to be extended and deepened.

    However, this increasingly unchallenged conventional wisdom has unhelpfully narrowed and distorted the EU’s foreign policy debates. The EU needs to move beyond its hazy geopolitical mantra, not lean on it even more heavily.

    Much EU policy debate has become concerned principally with the question of whether the EU can defend itself more robustly and without help from the US. Analysis of European foreign policy has come overwhelmingly to take the form of calls for the EU to advance more ambitiously in its emerging ethos of militarised self-preservation and for laggardly member states to accelerate their rearmament.

    While the focus on defence capabilities was overdue and remains necessary, it is becoming too dominant.

    Defence players and experts get a far readier hearing in Brussels than anyone working on more liberal agendas involving human rights, development or peacebuilding. Funds flow aplenty into new programmes on defence and away from these old liberal concerns, many of which policymakers and analysts now belittle as passé.

    As they ramp up their defence spending, most member states are cutting their development aid. The incoming commissioners’ mission statements are all about security and protecting European democracy from external threats. There is no mention of the work they would do to support global human rights.

    If it previously tended to under-securitise its major challenges, the EU now risks over-securitising them. Well beyond the defence sphere, nearly all areas of EU policy are now infused with a more securitised ethos.

    The new hard-power orthodoxy risks crowding out any critical questioning of the EU’s new enthusiasm for concepts – power politics and zero-sum geopolitical rivalry – that were until recently anathema to its very essence.

    This deflects from the broader and more significant question of how the EU needs to mobilise different kinds of power to shape international trends. Contrary to what now predominates as received wisdom, governments’ increased defence budgets and EU efforts to coordinate defence investments do not in themselves provide such leverage.

    Indeed, with its priority on military defence, the EU has in recent years shown less evidence of qualitatively updating and sharpening its understanding of international leverage. While European leaders ritually claim that the union has “learned the language of power”, the current policy trajectory has diverted the EU away from being more influentially geostrategic.

    Outgoing high representative Josep Borrell has himself lamented that the EU risks being better at reacting to its last crisis than pre-empting wider and future trends.

    The shift in EU strategic narrative rests on an unduly one-dimensional reading of global trends. Contrary to what is now a commonly accepted premise, not every international development points towards state-to-state, zero-sum, order-menacing illiberalism.

    Much of it does, but the evolving order is also one of intensified societal mobilisation against autocracy and state power. It sees sub-state networks working across borders and citizens seeking problem-oriented cooperation on the ailing global commons.

    Out of step

    Articles, political speeches, and European policy documents routinely urge the EU to step back and accept that liberal political values are now contested. But global surveys show strong and even rising levels of citizen support for democracy and underlying social trends away from authoritarian values.

    Once a self-styled power of liberal betterment, the EU increasingly seems reduced to a strategy of stemming ordinary peoples’ desire for change. It rarely meets citizens’ pleas for support in their efforts to spur political and social reform. It has become an ambiguous bystander more than proactive promulgator.

    By downplaying these complexities, the EU fixation on traditional geopolitical power looks increasingly at odds with the emerging order rather than skilfully aligned with it. The EU’s now commonly repeated leitmotif of “accepting the world as it is” actually does no such thing.

    It actually collides with the underlying ways in which that world is shifting socially and politically. It’s one thing for the EU to get real about defending itself but another to become a regressive power that passively moulds itself to the power-politics of illiberalism.

    Far from going alone, Europe instead needs to fashion more effective interdependencies and coalitions.

    As its new leaders take office, the EU needs to move beyond the now omnipresent, yet ill-defined geopolitical narrative. It needs a more precise and forward-looking vision of what it wants power, sovereignty and autonomy for.

    If, for many years, the EU dangerously neglected the need for hard, defensive power it now risks moving to other extreme – giving hard power such pride of place that it detracts from the more consequential trends that will redefine the world order.

    Richard Youngs does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The European Union is becoming too obsessed with defence – https://theconversation.com/the-european-union-is-becoming-too-obsessed-with-defence-239666

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: When Russia and Israel talk about setting up ‘buffer zones’ what they are really talking about is a land grab

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Iain Farquharson, Lecturer in Global Challenges – Security Pathway Lead, Brunel University London

    In the conflicts raging in Ukraine and the Middle East, we have recently seen calls for the establishment of what are being referred to as “buffer zones”.

    Russia has proposed setting one up around Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv in the north-east of the country. This, the Kremlin claims, is to protect Russian towns from shelling and missile attacks from Ukrainian territory.

    Israel, meanwhile, wants to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. It says it needs to protect nearly 70,000 civilians returning to their homes, which they have abandoned in the past year after rocket attacks by Hezbollah.

    But these suggestions should be viewed with scepticism. Both Russia and Israel want to set up these buffer zones within the borders of neighbouring autonomous nation states – in breach of their sovereignty – in the name of “security”. They should instead primarily be seen as a way of formalising control over contested territory to protect their home bases, which would give them a military advantage.

    The situation is further complicated by the fact that neither nation is formally at war with its opponent. No formal declaration of war has been issued by Russia to Ukraine, while Israel claims its legitimacy to establish a buffer zone under Article 51 of the UN constitution concerning self-defence.

    Such arguments are hypocritical and one-sided. Russian and Israeli policymakers have shown no concern for the effect of the establishment of these zones on the Ukrainian and Lebanese populations of the areas.

    The idea of buffer zones has a long history within international relations. Buffer zones have generally been defined as a nation state or neutral geographical area between two states not politically or militarily controlled by either of the rival states it separates.

    The zones proposed by Russia and Israel don’t fit this definition. Both Kharkiv and southern Lebanon are militarily contested. And neither the Ukrainian nor Lebanese governments is in control of their territories.

    If the Russian and Israeli proposals were to conform to this definition, they would comprise territory on both sides of the border of the two states, established with the agreement of both rival states. But neither Russia nor Israel is planning to cede their own territory in the establishment of these buffer zones. In fact, both have consistently sought to delegitimise their rival’s status as a nation state.

    These considerations, alongside Ukrainian and Hezbollah resistance, suggest that these new buffer zones will be fiercely contested. Indeed, the history of buffer states and zones suggests that the effectiveness of such zones is highly questionable.

    History of failure

    Lebanon itself serves as an example of this in acting as a buffer state (although not formally declared as such) for the Israeli-Syrian rivalry from the late 1960s. Both Syria (1976) and Israel (1978 and 1982) intervened militarily in Lebanon at one point or another.

    In this context, Lebanon provided a way for Syria to protect itself from surprise attacks. It allowed the political and military confrontation to play out without escalation to their own national territories. But it was terrible for Lebanon itself and ironically, Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1982 paved the way for the foundation of Hezbollah as a political and military force.

    Similarly, Anglo-Russian rivalry over influence in Afghanistan in the 19th century focused on political manoeuvring to exert influence over Afghan rulers to protect British India and southern Russia respectively. This saw much money and political capital expended on both sides. There were also three British military incursions (1839-40, 1878-80 and 1919) attempting to consolidate their influence. None went well.

    In both these cases though, competing powers were using an intervening state to avoid an escalation of tensions into conflict.

    External ‘security zones’

    In this instance, the recent declarations in pursuit of “buffer zones” by both Russia and Israel have more in common with strategic occupations of territory to resolve a military problem – namely attacks on their own territories. Within security studies literature these are termed “external security zones” and are generally militarily occupied zones within hostile territory deemed essential to the national security of the occupying power.

    Historically, these zones have also been of questionable value. Following continued Palestinian attacks on Israeli border villages, in 1977 the Israel Defense Forces created a formal security buffer zone in south Lebanon through the proxy South Lebanon Army and supported by UN Interim Forces in Lebanon (Unifil) from March 1978.

    The establishment of this zone did little to prevent shelling and rocket attacks on Israel, leading to significant exchanges of artillery fire in the summer of 1981. Then on June 6 1982, Israel invaded southern Lebanon.

    Ultimately, neither buffer zones nor security zones have proved very effective at preventing conflict or preserving populations from its effects. These have almost always been negative, to say the least.

    Now, both Russia and Israel are likely to find themselves facing increasing resistance from the occupied nation. This will require the commitment of more troops and perhaps deeper military advances under cover of the political and strategic “necessity” to ensure the security of their own borders.

    These commitments will undoubtedly lead to more casualties. They will either lead to a destabilisation of existing governance in their regions or serve as a pretext for the aggressors to push further forward. It will also require them to further reshape their economies to fill military needs and could lead to potential escalation with other regional powers.

    Iain Farquharson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. When Russia and Israel talk about setting up ‘buffer zones’ what they are really talking about is a land grab – https://theconversation.com/when-russia-and-israel-talk-about-setting-up-buffer-zones-what-they-are-really-talking-about-is-a-land-grab-239765

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Hillsborough law planned for 2025 – what it will mean for future disasters and scandals

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nathan Critch, Research Associate, Alliance Manchester Business School, University of Manchester

    In his first conference speech as prime minister, Keir Starmer vowed that a Hillsborough law will be introduced in April, before the next anniversary of the football stadium disaster. The law will force public bodies to cooperate with investigations into future disasters and scandals.

    This announcement follows a long campaign by the families of the 97 people killed (and hundreds more injured) when part of Hillsborough stadium collapsed in 1989.

    The disaster and the inquiry that followed highlighted how justice is so often impeded by the tendency of powerful people to cover up information or refuse to cooperate in investigations.

    Initial media coverage of the Hillsborough disaster wrongly blamed football fans for the deaths. A public inquiry cited faults in police control, although its main recommendations related to crowd safety in sports venues.

    Crucially, the inquiry did not have access to all relevant evidence, interviewing only a few of those involved as it rushed to produce a narrowly focused report. An inquest ruled the deaths to have been “accidental”.

    Bereaved families “were sure that the true context, circumstances and aftermath of Hillsborough had not been adequately explored, established and made public”. Further efforts and campaigns for truth and justice ensued. Families attempted to bring private prosecutions against two of the police officers who had been in charge of operations at the match. Neither were successfully charged.

    In 2009, the government made an exception to the normal 30-year restriction on the publication of official documents, to ensure all documents related to the disaster were available to investigators.

    Shortly afterwards, the government established the Hillsborough Independent Panel to reexamine the causes of the disaster in light of full access to relevant evidence and in close consultation with Hillsborough families.



    Read more:
    New ‘Hillsborough Law’ needed to tackle ‘burning injustice’ and empower victims and family

    The panel’s report emphasised policing failures and found that crowd safety had been “compromised at every level” due to “well known” issues. The report found that police “sought to deflect responsibility” on Liverpool fans.

    New inquests concluded that the deaths of 97 had been unlawful, highlighting police and emergency service failures and exonerating the supporters who were initially blamed.

    In 2012, South Yorkshire Police apologised, and confirmed the independent panel’s findings that “senior officers sought to change the record of events” in the aftermath.

    Decades of campaigning

    The long struggle for truth and justice has focused on a lack of honesty and openness by those in power, a willingness to close ranks and blame others, and a failure to disclose relevant information. A Hillsborough law will enforce “a positive duty to tell the truth” and require public officials to “proactively assist investigations”.

    Starmer confirmed in his speech that the law will include criminal sanctions for those who breach it. Proposals also include better legal support and representations for future victims of disasters and their families.

    Proposals for a Hillsborough law were first put forward in 2017 as a private members’ bill by Andy Burnham, then shadow home secretary. Its passage was interrupted by the 2017 general election, but some aspects were reintroduced in 2022 in another private member’s bill. This, too, was interrupted when Boris Johnson prorogued parliament.

    Since becoming Labour leader, Starmer has framed his project as being one committed to returning his party, and the government, back to the service of working people. Passing a law designed and advocated for by working-class people who experienced injustice when their family members died is a clear symbol of this agenda.

    The law is also indicative of Starmer’s efforts to frame his government as one that seeks to be transparent, open and consistent. This puts him in contrast to the preceding 14 years of Conservative rule, which were marred by allegations of corruption and misconduct.

    High-profile scandals related to the pandemic, including members of the government holding illegal parties in Downing Street and misallocated contracts for PPE (personal protective equipment) to companies owned by people closely connected to government are just two examples.

    The announcement comes as Starmer himself, and senior members of his government, have been accused of lack of transparency on donations and gifts.
    Announcing the Hillsborough law goes some way to repairing his commitment to transparency and service in government, which has lost some of its shine in recent weeks.

    Changing the culture

    The reaction to the announcement from families and campaigners has been positive.

    The director of the charity Inquest, which supports families of those who have died in state-related disasters, called the law “a step forward in providing a legacy for the 97 so that others do not have to go through the pain and trauma of decades of campaigning”.

    The potential effect of the law goes far beyond Hillsborough. Other recent events including the Post Office scandal, infected blood and the Grenfell Tower fire have all been affected by a lack of openness and candour by those in power.

    But will a law on its own be enough? From Hillsborough to Grenfell to Windrush, what these many injustices highlight is that the problem of secrecy and a lack of transparency and candour is systemic and cultural. The British state has long been marked by a tradition of elitism, a government-knows-best attitude and a scepticism towards citizen engagement, participation and openness.

    While the Hillsborough law is indeed a step forward, it is only one piece of the jigsaw of making British governance more open and democratic.

    Nathan Critch receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (grant number:
    ES/V002740/1). He is affiliated with The Productivity Institute.

    – ref. Hillsborough law planned for 2025 – what it will mean for future disasters and scandals – https://theconversation.com/hillsborough-law-planned-for-2025-what-it-will-mean-for-future-disasters-and-scandals-239855

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election: why immigration remains a major issue for voters and why they trust Trump on border security

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Eli Auslender, Research Fellow in Migration and Climate Change, Aberystwyth University

    US border policy remains a key electoral issue for Democrats and presidential nominee Kamala Harris as she approaches the November election.

    According to a recent Gallup poll, 77% of Americans believe the southern border is experiencing either an ongoing crisis or is a major problem. Meanwhile 55% wish to see less overall immigration, 53% support expansion of the border wall and 63% would support the president temporarily closing the border to asylum seekers when the border is “overwhelmed”.

    The issue is an important one in border states, especially in those such as Arizona, where polls show an incredibly tight race.
    Those who rate immigration as a top issue favour Donald Trump over Harris, and in one new poll voters say that Trump will be far more successful than Harris at securing the border.

    Joe Biden’s initial border policies continued some entry restrictions brought in by Trump’s administration, which had restricted border entry during the heights of the pandemic. But Biden also opened new pathways for legal migration. This included expanding temporary protected status, which expedites work permits for specific populations fleeing violence or disasters from countries such as Haiti or Ukraine.

    Biden’s congressional border bill failed to get through the Senate in June. In it, he aimed to speed up the asylum process, revoke visas of the bosses of companies that work with illegal immigrants, and add executive authority to shut border access.

    Harris has confirmed that she wants to resurrect the Biden administration’s border bill despite criticism from advocacy groups such as the American Civil Liberties Union. It argues that it would cut off any access to asylum protections for the vast majority of people arriving at the US-Mexico border, and disregard human safety.

    Democratic shift?

    So how and why did Democrats shift their border policies so drastically when they had been openly against Trump’s border restrictions during his presidency – and what does this mean for potential border policies under a Harris administration?

    Over the past decade, people from Central and South America have been fleeing for a variety of reasons, including the recent chaos in Haiti, the effect of harsh economic conditions in Venezuela and organised crime. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that the number of forcibly displaced people in the region is expected to reach 25 million.

    Along with this, the US southern border has been inaccurately framed as the primary means through which fentanyl has entered the country and caused the opioid crisis. These two factors have linked asylum-seekers with fentanyl despite US citizens being the main smugglers of fentanyl into the country.

    The Biden administration attempted to address some of these issues by appointing Harris, at the beginning of its term, to explore the “root causes” of migration from Central America. This included directing private sector investments towards countries from where large numbers of asylum seekers were fleeing. Research suggests that this does little to address organised crime or governance issues.



    Read more:
    No, immigrants aren’t eating dogs and cats – but Trump’s claim is part of an ugly history of myths about immigrant foodways

    Immigration was under discussion in the recent presidential debate.

    Customs and Border Protection reported in June that 2024 saw the fewest border crossings since 2021. The Harris campaign has seized on this to claim the Biden administration’s approach has been the correct one. A closer looks, however, suggests there are many different factors.

    US Customs and Border Protection has increasingly restricted access to asylum as per the executive order, delaying those who can cross the border and need to claim asylum immediately. Mexico (among other states in Central America) has restricted northward movement towards the US border, including bussing people back to the south of the country.

    Meanwhile, asylum-seeker deaths at crossing points within Central America and after crossing the US border have increased from 149 discovered remains in 2023 to 164 by August 2024. This would suggest that the root causes remain the same.

    Asylum, border security, crime, and the opioid epidemic have been tangled into a single issue. National security and immigration are constantly linked. And this has led to the Harris campaign’s recent advertisements emphasising her “tough stances” on border crime.

    This is in contrast to her criticism of Trump in 2018, when she called his border wall policy “un-American”. Despite past Democratic criticism of Trump’s harsh border restrictions, restrictive border policies have come from both parties.

    Both parties claim that stronger enforcement and more rigorous vetting of asylum-seekers is needed, as well as expedited deportations and “safe third country” deportations. These positions still conflate asylum-seekers with criminals. Immigrant advocates have noted that the US’ asylum system is already one of the most complex in the world. Asylum cases often take years to decide.

    The “remain in Mexico” policy, which forced asylum seekers to stay in Mexico while their asylum applications were considered, was implemented by the Trump administration during the pandemic and maintained by the Biden administration. Advocacy group Human Rights Watch argued that it endangered countless asylum seekers, putting men, women and children at risk of violence or death, while they waited for their cases to be heard.

    Seeking asylum is both a national and international right. The first potential policy priority to ease the border pressure should be to simplify the asylum process and reduce the time it takes to resolve a case from several years to several months. Fortifying the border puts vulnerable lives at risk, regardless of which party proposes it. Shutting down the border would only put more lives at risk.

    If the Harris campaign is serious about border policy reform, it must first look to ease and expedite asylum access instead of restricting it.

    Eli Auslender does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US election: why immigration remains a major issue for voters and why they trust Trump on border security – https://theconversation.com/us-election-why-immigration-remains-a-major-issue-for-voters-and-why-they-trust-trump-on-border-security-238263

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Torrential rain represents an opportunity to build a better society

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Maryam Imani, Associate Professor of Water Systems Engineering, Anglia Ruskin University

    A month’s worth of rain has poured down in just a few hours in parts of central and southern England. More than 300 flood-related emergency calls were made, major roads were submerged, trains were delayed, and an enormous sinkhole opened up on a football pitch in south London.

    This follows similar torrential rain across central and eastern Europe two weeks ago, which led to flash floods and widespread damage and deaths. As climate change alters rain patterns and makes extreme downpours more common, and more extreme, such flooding is increasingly the new normal.

    Intense rain doesn’t lead to serious floods every time, of course. Sometimes we get lucky: a well-timed low tide might help, or a rainstorm could be surprisingly localised in a place where water can easily flow into the sea, a river or a pond. And some of the actions taken by humans to minimise the risk of catastrophic floods can actually make life more pleasant anyway, even when it isn’t raining. For this reason, we should see rains like this not just as a challenge, but as an opportunity.

    Minimising the risk of disaster

    There are various things we can do to minimise flood risks before and after torrential rains and prevent smaller floods from escalating into disasters.

    We can build bigger and better drainage and stormwater infrastructure, for instance, and make sure drains are unblocked and flood walls are properly maintained. This is an example of so-called “hard” flood defences.

    Features like ponds and wetlands, larger parks, or trees on hillsides, help slow down or store rainwater and can ensure the flow is spread out over days or even weeks. Water flows much faster over bare ground, and especially over concrete roads and buildings, where urban drainage systems can soon be overwhelmed – causing floods. These features are known variously as “nature-based solutions” or “sustainable drainage systems” or “blue-green infrastructure”.

    We can also use smart technologies for flood warning systems and we can ensure people are aware and prepared. We can ensure people don’t live in flood-prone areas in the first place, through climate-resilient planning, and that those who do live there are insured and have flood-proofed their homes as best they can.

    More sustainable flood management

    In the UK, several exemplary projects address flood management. The most iconic is the Thames Barrier in London, which protects the city from storm surges and high tides coming from the North Sea. Another is the the Leeds Flood Alleviation Scheme, which protects over 3,000 properties and 500 businesses in the UK’s fourth-largest urban area. It involves a combination of hard defences – weirs, flood walls – and natural solutions like planting trees and constructing water storage areas.

    The National Storm Overflows Plan for England report is being reviewed by the UK government for approval by December 2024. One of its recommendations is to make sustainable drainage systems mandatory.

    A government scheme (Flood Re) also ensures homeowners in flood-risk areas can protect their homes and obtain affordable insurance. And various rivers have been allowed to “wiggle” once again, by flooding over nearby fields. This has proven effective at reducing peak flows during storms, which is especially beneficial downstream where people live and where rivers are often encased in human-made banks.

    The River Derwent flows through the Lake District of northern England.
    RnDmS / shutterstock

    These initiatives are part of a broader trend toward more sustainable flood management practices. Key projects such as the “slowing the flow” project in Pickering, Yorkshire or projects along the River Derwent in Cumbria focus on reconnecting rivers with their floodplains.

    Worldwide lessons

    The Netherlands is one of the world leaders in flood management. The Delta Works, a massive system of dams, sluices, locks, dikes and storm-surge barriers, protects the country, much of which is below sea level, from flooding due to rainfall and rising sea levels.

    The Room for the River programme, started in 2007, manages higher water levels in rivers by lowering flood plains, creating water buffers, relocating levees, increasing the depth of side channels, and constructing flood bypasses. Urban adaptations, such as those in Rotterdam, are also crucial for managing flash flooding.

    Japan, particularly in flood-prone areas like Tokyo, has built massive underground flood tunnels to divert rainwater during storms. This system helps protect the city from excessive rainfall and typhoons. In many European countries, sustainable drainage systems are now integrated into urban planning. This helps absorb excess rainwater during storms, while offering ecological and social benefits too (grass and ponds are ultimately a lot nicer than bare concrete).

    It’s crucial to be aware of the problem of intense rain and view it as a chance to improve society. Prolonged droughts highlight the need to focus on storing and using excess water during high-demand times, which can be done by creating wetlands, storing floodwaters or by enabling the soil to store and retain more moisture.

    Engineers can’t do all this by themselves. Neither can tree-planters or wetland creators. We need a hybrid approach combining engineering solutions with nature and community efforts.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get our award-winning weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 35,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Maryam Imani is a member of the Institution of Civil Engineers and a STEM programme ambassador.

    – ref. Torrential rain represents an opportunity to build a better society – https://theconversation.com/torrential-rain-represents-an-opportunity-to-build-a-better-society-239755

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Gangs’stories: Danny’s tales of machismo in Glasgow

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Alistair Fraser, Professor of Criminology, University of Glasgow

    Glasgow – 1973, Queen Street Rail Station. Helmutt Zozmann, CC BY-NC-ND

    For the past five years, the GANGS project, a European Research Council-funded project led by Dennis Rodgers, has been studying global gang dynamics in a comparative perspective. When understood in a nuanced manner that goes beyond the usual stereotypes and Manichean representations, gangs and gangsters arguably constitute fundamental lenses through which to think about and understand the world we live in.

    _Alistair Fraser and Angela Bartie present the story of Danny, who was a Glaswegian gang member in his youth. Drawing on interviews carried out when he was 18, 59, and 70 years old, they trace his changing self-reflection about his past experiences which mirror the broader transformation of the city from a violence urban space in the 1960s to a thriving “people’s city” in 2024.

    _

    As Danny left the room, that autumn of 2022, our eyes locked together in shock. For the last three hours, this spry seventy-year-old had held us rapt. Tanned, lean, and composed in his smart coat and cap, he was someone you’d have happily bought a used car from. But in the room he had been regaling us with tales of his teenage years running with the ‘Drummy’, a street gang notorious in Glasgow’s history. How had he got from there to here?

    Danny grew up in Easterhouse, a 1950s housing scheme on the periphery of the city that quickly attracted negative publicity. Tens of thousands were rehoused from crumbling tenements in the city centre. They were sold a bright new vision of progress but found themselves deserted on the edge of town, with only fields for company. Without shops, jobs, or facilities, young people made their own entertainment, forming themselves into gangs and fighting for kicks. Membership was decided simply by which street you happened to live on, a kind of natural selection where geography would land you on one side or the other. Unlike gangs in other cities, in Glasgow it was not about control of drug markets but a more primal law of the jungle, fighting for kicks and respect.

    The violence of the Easterhouse gangs was legendary. As Danny recalled:

    “It was just out and out tribal, that’s all it was, you know. And it was a day-to-day routine… some of the things you did were ludicrous. I mean, we used to run, we had football pitches, and you would run into the football pitches, maybe 50, 60 of yous, in pitch black. You would charge each other. Now, the British Army wouldn’t do that, in pitch black, run into it, not knowing what’s there. And you ran at each other, not knowing if the guy’s got a sword, a knife, a hatchet, anything.”

    The issue didn’t stay local for long. Warfare involving Easterhouse gangs attracted national media attention, drew concerned responses from politicians, and even garnered a celebrity visit from popular entertainer Frankie Vaughan who asked the gangs to put down their knives.

    Years before series such as the Peaky Blinders, the movie Small Faces (1996) would highlight gang violence in industrial towns such as Glasgow.

    The violence also attracted the attention of radical criminologists. Gail Wilson and Mary Wilson were part of a loose association of “Anarchists, CND, young Communists and international Socialists” (Cohen 1974: 27) who were trying to rewire academic approaches to youth culture. Rather than looking at the rule-breakers, these upstarts were looking at the rule makers and asking why some groups were criminalised more than others. Gail and Mary spent years working alongside gang youth in Easterhouse, studying their daily lives and comparing this with media narratives. They applied a theory called “social constructionism”, which tries to untangle stereotypes and reality.

    Meeting Danny

    We first met Gail and Mary back in 2010, after our studies of 1960s gangs had led us to their doorsteps. During our first meeting, Gail climbed a ladder to a storage hatch and retrieved a dusty box. Our eyes widened as we saw what lay inside. Notes, news clippings, sketches, essays and – incredibly – eighteen hand-written transcripts of interviews with members of the “Drummy” gang from 1969.

    We set about trying to trace these boys, who would now be in their fifties. We wondered how their lives had gone, where they’d ended up, and what lessons they would want to tell the current generation. We weren’t always successful. Some had died, others relocated. One got in touch to say he didn’t want to talk about that period in his life. Danny was one that said yes.

    Glasgow Gangs, 1968.

    Danny’s story, in a way, was the story of Glasgow. After his teenage gang years, Danny surfed Glasgow’s wave of industrialisation into a career in sales. He worked hard and moved out of the estate, initially to an area a few miles west of Easterhouse. His manager saw his potential, and Danny reflected that his street skills had prepared him for organisational roles and promotion.

    When we first spoke in 2011, he had been bullish in his talk of days gone by. His eyes glinted at the retelling of tales of violence, like a cowboy in a Western saloon. He revelled in one about his strict father taking him to the pub for his 18th birthday, where they had been challenged to a fight by a man and his dog. “Needless to say”, he told us with a grin, “we leathered them.”

    It sealed a bond between father and son. As he told us, “I kind of walked up the road as proud as punch, me and my dad”. We interpreted this as a link between past and present – the gang was a hand-me-down masculinity, like the legend of the Glasgow hardman swaggering through the pages of history.

    Ten years later, however, he told the story differently. As we sat squeezed around a table too big for the room, the air was thick with regret not bravado. His father had recently passed away, and this former hardman was suddenly vulnerable. As he recalled in 2022 of the altercation:

    “That’s the first time I probably ever bonded, truly, with my dad, if you know what I mean, in all the years… on my 18th birthday, I’ll never forget it.”

    The macho image started to fracture

    The macho image that we had of Danny, and of the Glasgow hardman, started to fracture. Ever since, we have been re-evaluating what we thought we knew about Danny’s life – and gang lives in general – and our own part in retelling his story. The oral historian Lynn Abrams says:

    “The story that a person tells is just one of many that are possible. The script is not deterministic. Its shape, form and content is determined by the need for the narrator to construct a memory story with which he or she can feel comfortable at that moment. And a comfortable telling is often one in which the story told coheres with larger cultural understandings.”

    Danny’s perspectives on his youthful gang experiences have altered not just in response to his own changing life circumstances, but also to how the culture of Glasgow has transformed in the fifty years since he was involved in the Drummy.

    Today, Glasgow is hailed as a city that has beaten the gangs, with talk of a Glasgow miracle of violence reduction.

    As he swaggered out the door, every inch the successful businessman, a stillness descended on the room. Danny was as far from the stereotype of a gang member as you could possibly imagine. He is your grandfather, your neighbour, your friend.

    Meeting Danny reminded us that stories matter, but like a city they can change – and paying attention to when and why these stories change can often reveal more than the stories themselves.

    Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

    – ref. Gangs’stories: Danny’s tales of machismo in Glasgow – https://theconversation.com/gangsstories-dannys-tales-of-machismo-in-glasgow-224876

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Even as urban foxes get bolder, people appreciate rather than persecute them, say psychologists

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Blake Morton, Lecturer of Animal Psychology, University of Hull

    starlings_images/Shutterstock

    For many, urban red foxes are a familiar sight in back gardens or city streets. Often, people delight in seeing them and the connection to wildlife they bring. Others find them a nuisance, whether because of their smell, poo or loud screaming noises during the breeding season. Some anecdotal reports indicate that foxes could be becoming bolder within cities – even riding on buses, stealing shoes or taking naps on someone’s garden shed.

    Our study for the British carnivore project shows for the first time that foxes within the UK are indeed behaving more boldly within cities compared to rural populations – but that most people remain tolerant of them anyway.

    Foxes are vital to ecosystem health and represent an important “flagship” species for urban residents’ connection to the natural world. However, bolder fox behaviour could, in theory, lead to more conflict with humans, particularly as people encroach more on green space through increasing urbanisation. It is therefore crucial to understand how to avoid conflict with these animals and explore positive ways to coexist.

    Stories and imagery can play an important role in shaping our attitudes about wildlife. However, although foxes are often portrayed as “sly” and “cunning” in popular culture, it remains unclear how this might affect public perceptions. Identifying factors that influence people’s feelings and attitudes towards foxes is important for understanding how we can coexist amicably alongside them.

    Communicating information about bolder urban foxes through press releases and YouTube videos, for instance, runs the risk of people creating false impressions or sensationalised beliefs about fox behaviour. This could undermine important conservation initiatives to protect the welfare of urban foxes, including efforts to avoid unethical treatment or persecution of these animals.

    Foxy behaviour

    Our recent study tested whether messages about bolder urban foxes are biasing how people feel about them. To do this, 1,364 British people were randomly selected to take part in an online experiment.

    Participants were not told what the study was about. Half were given stories depicting bold and cunning fox behaviour and shown a short video of foxes exploring and solving food puzzles that we had left overnight in people’s back gardens.

    Half the study participants were shown this three-minute video of foxes solving food puzzles.

    Other participants were shown relatively neutral content, including a video of foxes walking through different landscapes.

    Afterwards, all participants answered 24 questions that enabled us to evaluate their perceptions of foxes, including whether they felt fox behaviour negatively impacted their everyday lives.

    Half the study participants were shown this short video of foxes walking through various habitats.

    The study revealed that content about bold and cunning fox behaviour did not have a significant effect on participants’ tolerance of foxes, compared to people in the control group. In fact, across both the experimental and control groups, 83% of people displayed feelings about foxes that were more positive than negative. This suggests that participants from the experimental group remained positive despite being made aware that bold and intelligent behaviour from foxes probably explains their “pesky” interactions with people.

    Previous studies have found that foxes are a very well-liked species throughout much of the UK, despite other studies suggesting that attitudes are more mixed in urban areas like London. Our latest study provides the most up-to-date evidence showing that this remains the case. However, as foxes continue to become bolder within cities, which our previous work suggests, it will become very important to continue to monitor whether (or how) attitudes change towards these animals throughout the country.

    Our results illustrate that the likeability factor of foxes is deeply rooted and difficult to change just by discussing their nuisance behaviour in a single setting. Although foxes are often perceived to be bold and crafty, our online experiments showed that most people remained generally tolerant of them anyway.

    By giving residents more of a voice in urban planning, solutions can be designed to encourage people to coexist with foxes without persecuting these animals, such as how to dispose of our waste properly to deter bin-raiding. This, in our view, is great news for foxes and people.

    Blake Morton received funding from the University of Hull, UKRI Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (Grant No.
    NE/X018342/1), and EU Social Fund Plus for the study.

    Charlotte Hopkins received funding from NERC for this project (Grant No. NE/X018342/1)

    – ref. Even as urban foxes get bolder, people appreciate rather than persecute them, say psychologists – https://theconversation.com/even-as-urban-foxes-get-bolder-people-appreciate-rather-than-persecute-them-say-psychologists-234110

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: An oral weight loss pill has just passed early trials with promising results – here’s how it works

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Martin Whyte, Associate Professor of Metabolic Medicine, University of Surrey

    Numerous companies are working on developing weight loss pills that would have similar effects as injectable drugs currently on the market. Ljupco Smokovski/ Shutterstock

    The arrival of GLP-1 analogue drugs (such as Wegovy) marked a huge shift in the weight loss drug market. These drugs have been shown to lead to significant weight loss in users – as much as 15% or more of their body weight in clinical trials. For this reason, demand for weight loss drugs has skyrocketed worldwide.

    Most of the GLP-1 analogue drugs on the market are taken as a weekly injection under the skin. But many companies are now working on translating these drugs into a form that can be taken orally, as a pill.

    But will weight loss pills be as effective as the injectable GLP-1 drugs already on the market?

    How do injectable weight loss drugs work?

    When we eat, the gastrointestinal system produces a variety of hormones in response, that go on to signal satiety to the brain. Collectively, these hormones are called “incretins”. Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) and islet amyloid polypeptide (amylin) are all incretins.

    Incretins signal the hypothalamus (a structure in the brain that links the endocrine and nervous systems) and other brain regions to tell the rest of the body we’re full.

    The drug semaglutide (sold under the brand names Wegovy and Ozempic) mimics the naturally occurring incretin GLP-1. But unlike the GLP-1 the body produces (which is quickly broken down by enzymes after it’s been released), semaglutide has been pharmacologically modified so that the hormone lasts longer in the body – thereby making a person feel fuller for longer after meals.

    Other weight loss drugs can act on more than one incretin receptor. Tirzepatide (sold under the brand name Mounjaro) is the first available “dual” incretin. In other words, it has properties of two incretin molecules – acting on both GLP-1 and GIP receptors. Clinical trials showed tirzepatide is even more effective than semaglutide – leading to an impressive loss of up to 20% of body weight in overweight or obese participants who took the drug for 72 weeks.

    How would a weight loss pill work?

    Novo Nordisk, the makers of Wegovy, recently announced the phase 1 trial results of a new oral weight loss pill they’re developing, called amycretin.

    At the European Association for the Study of Diabetes conference in September 2024, researchers reported that in early trials, amycretin led to a 10.4% loss of body weight in people who were overweight or obese when taken at its lowest dose for 12 weeks. When taken at a higher dose, it led to an over 13% loss of body weight in the same time period. This was compared to participants who were given a placebo, who lost only 1% of their body-weight. The amount of weight lost was faster than when compared to semaglutide injections.

    The oral pill was shown to be more effective than injectable semaglutide.
    Artmim/ Shutterstock

    Amycretin works by targeting two incretin hormone receptors: GLP-1 and amylin.

    Amylin is secreted at the same time as insulin by cells in the pancreas. The hormone plays a key role in blood sugar (glucose) regulation by controlling how quickly food is digested in the stomach and controlling when the hormone glucagon in released. Importantly, amylin receptors are found in specific brain regions that regulate appetite. As such, it can trigger a satiety signal after meals.

    Weight loss from GLP-1 and amylin receptor treatments works through both separate as well as shared brain pathways. Because of this, combining the two therapies is anticipated to have a greater effect on promoting weight loss. Based on the early results from this amycretin trial, it appears this is true.

    As amycretin has been developed to be taken as a pill, it may offer a more convenient option for managing obesity. Furthermore, weight loss had not plateaued by the 12-week period – so people may be able to lose more weight than that shown so far. And, side-effects appear similar to other incretin-based treatments – including nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea or constipation.

    Larger trials are now taking place to better understand how safe and effective it really is.

    Advances in the field of weight loss drugs are evolving rapidly. Further dual-agonist and even triple-agonist incretin drugs are in development. Trials so far show they lead to a significant loss of body weight. Numerous companies are also working on developing weight loss pills that target incretin receptors – with trial results for some anticipated later this year.

    Amycretin has now advanced to the next phase of clinical trials. If proven to be as safe and effective as it was in phase one trials, it could be good news for patients with obesity. More options available on the market would also be good news as it could help manage global demand for weight loss drugs and ease the resultant shortages of these products.

    Martin Whyte has received research funding from AstraZeneca.

    – ref. An oral weight loss pill has just passed early trials with promising results – here’s how it works – https://theconversation.com/an-oral-weight-loss-pill-has-just-passed-early-trials-with-promising-results-heres-how-it-works-239637

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sexual strangulation has become popular – but that doesn’t mean it’s wanted

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Hannah Bows, Associate Professor in Criminal Law, Durham University

    Shutterstock

    An act seemingly once confined to bondage and “kink” communities has become mainstream. Despite the many risks to health (including death), sexual choking is now popular, even commonplace, particularly among young people.

    Sexual choking is a more informal label for strangulation. It involves the grabbing, holding or compression of another’s neck either by hands, or limb, or by use of a prop or weapon, and typically involves restriction of blood or air flow. When it is used as part of a sexual encounter, it is frequently referred to as “erotic asphyxiation” or “breath play”.

    In a 2016 survey of Americans aged 18-60 years, 21.4% of women who had sex with men had been choked. And one in five men admitted to choking a partner (male or female) during sex.

    An Australian study from this year found that more than half of 18- to 35-year-olds reported they had been strangled during sex at least once. A similar proportion admitting to strangling a partner at least once. Though strangling is common among both men and women, evidence shows that women are more likely to be strangled and men more likely to do the strangling.

    Separate research suggests strangulation has become so normalised that many do not consider it to be a form of rough or violent sex at all. A 2019 survey found only around a third of participants considered choking to be rough sexual behaviour. Most considered hair pulling, being pinned down, biting, being tied up and slapping as rough sexual behaviour.

    While there have not been many studies on the prevalence of choking until recently, researchers and campaigners have reported that young people are talking about the practise more in recent years.

    According to a 2022 study that surveyed American university students, those who report enjoying being strangled cited a high from the experience – a feeling of euphoria – that heightens sexual pleasure.

    People give various reasons for engaging in sexual strangling, including wanting to be kinky or adventurous, believing it would please their partner, and feelings of power and dominance. But campaigners point out that the often gendered nature of strangulation can feed into wider patterns of coercion and control of women by men.

    Although sexual choking appears to be increasingly common, it is not necessarily wanted by those engaging in or receiving it. A significant proportion of women, in particular, do not consent to being choked, even if the rest of the encounter is consensual.

    A survey for the BBC in 2019 found that in a study of 2,000 young women aged 18–39, 38% had experienced unwanted slapping, choking, gagging or spitting during otherwise consensual sex. And a similar proportion of men admit to choking or strangling a partner during sex without their consent.

    Normalising strangulation

    The act of strangulation has become increasingly normalised and sexualised. The Fifty Shades of Grey trilogy, a worldwide bestseller, was widely criticised by feminist campaigners, academics and domestic abuse charities for eroticising strangulation and making it socially acceptable. The recent Netflix-produced films Lady Chatterley’s Lover and Obsession also contain strangulation during sex scenes, which are presented as part of a love story.

    A 2020 investigation by the Times found hundreds of images of sexualised choking and strangulation on Pinterest, Instagram and Tumblr. The images included pictures of young women being pinned down and strangled by men, women with gags over their mouths and children being gripped by the throat.

    Social media hashtags promoting these images include #Daddy, #ChokingKink, #BreathPlay and #Strangle. Disturbingly, the investigation found hypersexualised tags and descriptions accompanying many of these images, including one which said “bruise my oesophagus”.

    Unwanted strangulation can happen during otherwise consensual sex.
    PPstudio/Shutterstock

    Pornography has also played a role in eroticising strangulation, as part of a wider normalisation of violent sex. And research has found links between people seeing choking depicted in pornography and engaging in it themselves.

    In TV, books, social media or pornography, it is almost always men strangling women. Similarly, the evidence on real life sexual choking shows this is a practice more often done by men to women.

    The creep of strangulation into legitimate and normalised behaviour makes it more difficult for women to escape (and avoid) violent relationships. This normalisation leads many women to feel like they cannot speak up about nonconsensual choking.

    In her recent book exploring rough sex, journalist Rachel Thompson highlights that women feel refusing to participate or responding to non-consensual choking could reflect negatively on them as sexual partners.

    Risky behaviour

    Regardless of consent, strangulation is associated with a range of health risks. These include loss of consciousness, loss of voice, difficulty in swallowing or breathing, bruising, redness, haemorrhages, headaches, depression, PTSD, suicidal thoughts and death (including delayed death occurring days or weeks after the strangulation).

    Strangulation has traditionally been viewed as a violent act and has long been recognised as assault in criminal law. A growing number of homicides of women by men involve claims that the death was an accident resulting from “rough sex” gone wrong.

    Strangulation or asphyxiation is a leading cause in many of these cases, and in some, reference has been made to the Fifty Shades of Grey trilogy as the inspiration for engaging in what is alleged to have been consensual sexual choking.

    England and Wales have recently introduced a new offence of non-fatal strangulation as part of domestic abuse legislation, which police appear to be actively using. But the law alone isn’t enough to change the normalisation of this dangerous act.



    Read more:
    Longer sentences for ‘rough sex’ killers may not deliver justice for victims

    Some advocates for safe BDSM practice have suggested that breath play can be done safely if there is clear consent, proper boundaries and certain rules are followed. But clinicians, academics and parliamentarians have argued there is no safe way to choke someone.

    Hannah Bows receives funding from the ESRC, British Academy & Home Office.

    – ref. Sexual strangulation has become popular – but that doesn’t mean it’s wanted – https://theconversation.com/sexual-strangulation-has-become-popular-but-that-doesnt-mean-its-wanted-239235

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: New solar cells break efficiency record – they could eventually supercharge how we get energy from the Sun

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sebastian Bonilla, Associate Professor of Materials, University of Oxford

    Thanun Vongsuravanich / Shutterstock

    The sight of solar panels installed on rooftops and large energy farms has become commonplace in many regions around the world. Even in grey and rainy UK, solar power is becoming a major player in electricity generation.

    This surge in solar is fuelled by two key developments. First, scientists, engineers and those in industry are learning how to make solar panels by the billions. Every fabrication step is meticulously optimised to produce them very cheaply. The second and most significant is the relentless increase in the panels’ power conversion efficiency – a measure of how much sunlight can be transformed into electricity.

    The higher the efficiency of solar panels, the cheaper the electricity. This might make you wonder: just how efficient can we expect solar energy to become? And will it make a dent in our energy bills?

    Current commercially available solar panels convert about 20-22% of sunlight into electrical power. However, new research published in Nature has shown that future solar panels could reach efficiencies as high as 34% by exploiting a new technology called tandem solar cells. The research demonstrates a record power conversion efficiency for tandem solar cells.

    What are tandem solar cells?

    Traditional solar cells are made using a single material to absorb sunlight. Currently, almost all solar panels are made from silicon – the same material at the core of microchips. While silicon is a mature and reliable material, its efficiency is limited to about 29%.

    To overcome this limit, scientists have turned to tandem solar cells, which stack two solar materials on top of each other to capture more of the Sun’s energy.

    In the new nature paper, a team of researchers at the energy giant LONGi has reported a new tandem solar cell that combines silicon and perovskite materials. Thanks to their improved sunlight harvesting, the new perovskite-silicon tandem has achieved a world record 33.89% efficiency.

    Perovskite solar materials, which were discovered less than two decades ago, have emerged as the ideal complement to the established silicon technology. The secret lies in their light absorption tuneability. Perovskite materials can capture high energy, blue light more efficiently than silicon.

    In this way, energy losses are avoided and the total tandem efficiency increases. Other materials, called III-V semiconductors, have also been used in tandem cells and achieved higher efficiencies. The problem is they are hard to produce and expensive, so only small solar cells can be made in combination with focused light.

    The scientific community is putting tremendous effort into perovskite solar cells. They have kept a phenomenal pace of development with efficiencies (for a single cell in the lab) rising from 14% to 26% in only 10 years. Such advancements enabled their integration into ultra-high-efficiency tandem solar cells, demonstrating a pathway to scale photovoltaic technology to the trillions of Watts the world needs to decarbonise our energy production.

    The cost of solar electricity

    The new record-breaking tandem cells can capture an additional 60% of solar energy. This means fewer panels are needed to produce the same energy, reducing installation costs and the land (or roof area) required for solar farms.

    It also means that power plant operators will generate solar energy at a higher profit. However, due to the way that electricity prices are set in the UK, consumers may never notice a difference in their electricity bills. The real difference comes when you consider rooftop solar installations where the area is constrained and the space has to be exploited effectively.

    The price of rooftop solar power is calculated based on two key measures. First, the total cost to install solar panels on your roof, and second, how much electricity they will generate over their 25 years of operation. While the installation cost is easy to obtain, the revenues from generating solar electricity at home are a bit more nuanced. You can save money by using less energy from the grid, especially in periods when it is costly, and you can also sell some of your surplus electricity back to the grid.

    However, the grid operators will pay you a very small price for this electricity, so sometimes it is better to use a battery and store the energy so you can use it at night. Using average considerations for a typical British household, I have calculated the cash savings consumers would gain from rooftop solar electricity depending on the efficiency of the panels.

    If we can improve panel efficiency from 22% to 34% without
    increasing the installation cost, savings in electricity bills will rise from £558ְ/year up to £709/year. A 20% bump in cash savings that would make solar rooftops extremely attractive, even in grey and cloudy Britain.

    The higher the efficiency of solar panels, the cheaper the resulting electricity.
    IM Imagery / Shutterstock

    So when can we buy these new solar panels?

    As research continues, considerable efforts are being made to scale up this technology and ensure its long-term durability. The record breaking tandem cells are made in laboratories and are smaller than a postage stamp. Translating such high performance to metre-square areas remains a vast challenge.

    Yet, we are making progress. Earlier this month, Oxford PV, a solar manufacturer at the forefront of perovskite technology, announced the first sale of its newly developed tandem solar panels. They have successfully tackled the challenges of integrating two solar materials and making durable and reliable panels. While they are still far from 34% efficiencies, their work shows a promising route for next generation solar cells.

    Another consideration is the sustainability of the materials used in tandem solar panels. Extracting and processing some of the minerals in solar panels can be hugely energy intensive. Besides silicon, perovskite solar cells require the elements lead, carbon, iodine and bromine as components to make them work properly. Connecting perovskite and silicon also requires scarce materials containing an element called indium, so there is plenty of research still required to address these difficulties.

    Despite the challenges, the scientific and industrial community remains committed to developing tandem solar devices that could be integrated into almost anything: cars, buildings and planes.

    The recent developments toward high efficiency perovskite-silicon tandem cells indicate a bright future for solar power, ensuring solar continues to play a more prominent role in the global transition to renewable energy.

    Sebastian Bonilla receives funding from UK Research and Innovation, The Royal Academy of Engineering, and The Leverhulme Trust.

    – ref. New solar cells break efficiency record – they could eventually supercharge how we get energy from the Sun – https://theconversation.com/new-solar-cells-break-efficiency-record-they-could-eventually-supercharge-how-we-get-energy-from-the-sun-239417

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nature is adapting to climate change – why aren’t we?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK edition

    Humanity may be no better prepared for the impacts of climate change today than in the 1970s.

    So says a new study led by Stanford University researchers that compared how sensitive societies are to extreme weather now versus 50 years ago. This research has yet to be peer-reviewed, and its conclusions run counter to what many climate policy experts have long assumed. If they are accurate, it means that additional wealth, technology and climate-savvy have not meaningfully enhanced our protection as the weather has become more hostile.


    This roundup of The Conversation’s climate coverage comes from our award-winning weekly climate action newsletter. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 35,000+ readers who’ve subscribed.

    Earth’s atmosphere has warmed and contains more moisture as a result of fossil fuel burning. Europeans reeling from Storm Boris can testify to the failure of even wealthy countries to adapt to this reality says Chris Medland, a PhD candidate in climate change resilience at the University of Surrey.



    Read more:
    Who’s to blame when climate change turns the lights off?

    Eventually, everyone will feel this deficit.

    “Your home may not be in the path of the next storm but the infrastructure it relies on might be,” Medland says.

    Flood defences, power lines, rail networks – all of these things and more need to be built or upgraded to withstand mounting storms. Yet in the recently flooded UK, the companies that run utilities are not expressly obliged to ensure their networks remain resilient to climate change, Medland says. Nor is it clear who is ultimately responsible for keeping the lights on as the crisis intensifies.

    Invaders must die?

    If the accounts of biologists are anything to go by, the natural world is adapting to the effects of climate change far more radically than any human institution.

    “Faced with the degradation of their habitat, the species that will survive will be those that are able to adapt,” says Suzanne Bonamour, a postdoctoral researcher in ecology at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology.

    Bonamour studies an endangered seabird, the crested cormorant, and its struggles to feed itself and its brood amid stormier seas. These birds can migrate to escape a winter squall, but only some do.



    Read more:
    How cormorants are rethinking their migration routes in the face of climate change

    Bonamour wonders whether adult birds might transmit this behaviour to their chicks, but she says that there is little that species can do to compensate for the catastrophe humans are engineering.

    Adjusting to a rapidly changing climate is a very tall order.
    LABETAA Andre/Shutterstock

    When plants and animals seeking cooler climes settle on new shores, they usually get a hostile reception. Attempting to root out these migrants is generally a mistake according to Heather Kharouba, an ecologist at the University of Ottawa.

    “Stated plainly, the vast majority of intentionally or unintentionally introduced species are not a threat to native ecosystems,” she says.



    Read more:
    Climate change means we may have to learn to live with invasive species

    Some arrivals do cause problems. In North America, “invasive species” include the emerald ash borer, an insect from north-eastern Asia that damages ash trees. But most control measures are laborious and expensive failures, Kharouba says. Some are even harmful, like using herbicides that afflict the native and non-native alike.

    Kharouba cites numerous examples of introduced species enriching their new homes. More generally, there is a trade-off: forests in the eastern US that are turning gold with autumn’s onset now harbour fewer species, but they store more carbon.

    “All this means that introduced plants could be well placed to support, or even buffer, current ecosystems as they undergo transitions due to climate change,” Kharouba says.

    Nature offers stark evidence that the world is changing rapidly. What if we embraced it?

    ‘Not just a challenge’

    Climate activists have typically shied away from discussing “climate adaptation” for fear of sounding defeatist says Joost de Moor, an assistant professor of political science at Sciences Po. There is cause to remain laser-focused on cutting emissions, he adds, but no excuse to neglect the question entirely.

    If change is inevitable, what sort of world do we want to emerge from the climate crisis? In March 2023, protesters in western France seized the initiative when they opposed the construction of a 628,000 sq metre reservoir in the rural Sainte-Soline commune, de Moor says.



    Read more:
    How climate activists finally seized the issue of adaptation in 2023

    France had suffered a historic drought, and so a huge artificial water reserve might have seemed prudent. Not if it involved draining a common resource, the water table, to serve a few farmers whose methods of agriculture already placed an untenable strain on struggling ecosystems, protesters argued.

    The campaign sparked a vital debate about whose needs ought to be prioritised in a future with greater hardship says Lucien Thabourey, a sociologist of environmental activism at Sciences Po. Fortunately, there is also a conversation to be had about the ways in which everyone might live better.



    Read more:
    Sainte-Soline : un tournant pour les mouvements écologistes ?

    “Some of the actions taken by humans to minimise the risk of catastrophic floods can actually make life more pleasant anyway, even when it isn’t raining,” says Maryam Imani, an associate professor of water systems engineering at Anglia Ruskin University.



    Read more:
    Torrential rain represents an opportunity to build a better society

    “For this reason, we should see rains like this not just as a challenge, but as an opportunity.”

    – ref. Nature is adapting to climate change – why aren’t we? – https://theconversation.com/nature-is-adapting-to-climate-change-why-arent-we-239750

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Fan reviews and parodies of Amazon’s The Rings of Power show that ownership is not just determined by contracts

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lincoln Geraghty, Professor of Media Cultures, University of Portsmouth

    The fan reaction to season one of The Rings of Power in 2022 was, to put it mildly, very mixed. Following the 2017 announcement that Amazon had bought the rights to adapt some of J.R.R Tolkien’s lesser-known work, many fans were cautious in their celebration.

    I research fandoms, so I am particularly drawn to the levels of critical analysis and humour fans employ in their review videos and parodies of The Rings of Power. They highlight that while multi-billion-dollar corporations may have the financial clout to own valuable IP and some of the biggest entertainment franchises, ownership is not just determined by contracts.

    Peter Jackson’s The Lord of the Rings trilogy (2001-2003) stands as testament to the director’s passion for Tolkien, Middle Earth and cinematic storytelling.

    With The Rings of Power, Amazon was clearly trying to capture some of that for the small screen. They hoped to use the franchise to compete with other streaming platforms such as Netflix and Disney+, as well as copy HBO’s success with series like Game of Thrones. Epic fantasy television offered Amazon the potential for new subscribers, awards and priceless word-of-mouth marketing.

    However, that is not quite what happened. Early promotion for season one was scarce, the teaser trailer was ratioed (meaning it had thousands more dislikes than likes) and a campaign to use social media influencers and vloggers as promoters backfired.

    The trailer for season two of The Rings of Power.

    When marketing backfires

    Amazon flew a number of social media influencers and vloggers to Mallorca in Spain to watch the first teaser trailer, and then filmed their praise and reactions to be shared on their channels and Amazon’s own social media.

    But fans quickly spotted that a number of the influencers and vloggers had never made Lord of the Rings content before and most of the reactions were scripted, depending on language and nationality of the vloggers. When these promos started to be ratioed on YouTube, Amazon took them down.

    Now with season two upon us, the lack of faith in Amazon’s adaptation has not only continued – it has noticeably grown. Some content creators have reacted negatively to the company’s and showrunners’ attempts at turning the very small amount of the story and lore, to which they have rights, into many hours worth of television.

    Yet, it is how the fans respond which is often more intriguing and revealing than what they are responding to. The overall tone and argument that fans share about the series is that it lacks faithfulness to Tolkien’s world and tries to adapt and copy Jackson’s version of Middle Earth, rather than create something appealing in its own right.

    This is best highlighted in recent videos produced by well-known and controversial Lord Of The Rings fan, Nerdrotic, who outlines in enormous detail how season two has gone further in trying to sound and look like Jackson’s movies.

    Nerdrotic’s criticism of The Rings of Power.

    The use of clips, dialogue, sound effects and references to press sources raises such content to almost academic level of critique. His cultural capital and knowledge of the story and lore is clearly displayed, and used to both raise the source material up while he puts the Amazon adaptation down.

    This is typical of fans who feel their beloved text is under attack – they come to its defence by building a case for its original quality and value.

    Fan parodies

    The use of parody and humour to pour scorn on the series is also a common practice among fans. New digital technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) allow fans to create a sense of realism that again demonstrates their knowledge and love of the original works.

    Charlie Hopkinson’s Gandalf Reviews deepfake sketches have found an audience that both knows the lore but is also familiar with and enjoys the format of reaction videos made popular on YouTube. Setting Gandalf in a sitcom where he chats with other characters while watching Lord of the Rings may seem glaringly unfaithful to the material, but it uses displacement of those same characters to highlight the importance and value of the original story and movies.

    One of the Gandalf deep fake videos.

    Fans develop a strong sense of ownership over their favourite media or books. They have taken fantasy, science fiction, comic book and horror franchises to their heart and put time, money and energy into getting to know them in every detail.

    Because of the level of financial and personal investment, they feel they “own” the text and have helped make it popular in the first place. Therefore, they would argue they have every right to feel threatened, angry or frustrated at what they perceive as harm being done to it and so, by extension, them.

    Streaming platforms such as Amazon have tried to stay ahead in an increasingly competitive market by mining well-known IP to lure in fans and non-subscribers alike. However, as The Rings of Power has shown, attempts at courting fans can come at a cost which may never be recouped.

    The relationship between fans and entertainment corporations is as fraught as ever. Amazon needs Tolkien fans, but at the same time doesn’t seem to recognise the fact that the fans may not need them – or another adaption – to keep them entertained. They can do that for themselves.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Lincoln Geraghty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Fan reviews and parodies of Amazon’s The Rings of Power show that ownership is not just determined by contracts – https://theconversation.com/fan-reviews-and-parodies-of-amazons-the-rings-of-power-show-that-ownership-is-not-just-determined-by-contracts-238704

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How better community engagement can improve emergency management in Canada

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sayra Cristancho, Associate Professor, Department of Surgery and Faculty of Education Scientist, Centre for Education Research & Innovation, Western University

    Environmental, social and public health emergencies are becoming more frequent and severe around the world. The rapid pace at which emergencies are occurring, compounded by social crises like homelessness, addictions and mental health, are over-stressing our emergency management systems. However, as a society we cannot let this reality become an excuse.

    In response, the World Health Organization (WHO) has called for community engagement. And yet, despite a thriving legacy of volunteerism, Canada is lagging behind. Canada is the only G7 country without a national health security and emergency agency. And without such coordinating agency, communities are left to scramble when emergencies strike.

    When emergencies arise, the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) are often called up to provide much needed support. However, the military is supposed to be called upon only when demand exceeds provincial capacity. Yet provinces have come to view the CAF as their first, rather than their last resort. Every time the CAF is called for assistance, it diverts time and resources away from attending to Canada’s national security tasks.

    If not the CAF, then what should be the source of this labour? There are four basic models Canada could follow. One of them pertains to mobilizing volunteer and skilled labour at the community level. The reality is that ordinary citizens always find their way to get involved, making emergency management a community concern. This is what the WHO refers to as a “whole-of-society approach.”

    Those in charge of devising the national emergency management strategy are confronted with two major uncertainties: the evolution of grass-roots initiatives to tackle community emergencies, and the lack of integration of those initiatives into emergency management systems.

    Community volunteers still feel that they work as “add-ons” rather than from within emergency management plans. The massive participation of citizens during forest fires and flood emergencies, and the increasing involvement of ordinary citizens in volunteer emergency response groups confirm that Canada enjoys a vibrant civil society. With its access to local networks, and its ability to mobilize others, community volunteers represent a unique and cost-effective resource.

    The Cobourg Community Centre Clinic

    Volunteers in communities across Canada are emotionally invested to help and engage during emergencies, particularly when they perceive poor coordination or lapses in authority by official response organizations.

    This was the case, as colleagues and I recently documented, of the Cobourg Community Centre (CCC) COVID-19 vaccination response in Ontario.

    This community initiative involved 600 volunteers who stepped up to help their community build and run a vaccination clinic when the community sensed that vaccination plans were not moving quickly enough. The Cobourg Rotary Club in partnership with the Northumberland Hills Hospital devised this initiative which involved retrofitting the community centre to serve as a clinic, organizing, and managing volunteer tasks, and assisting health-care providers in distributing vaccines.

    We interviewed volunteers, health-care providers, Rotary club members, public health unit staff, hospital staff, local businesses and city employees to capture the stories behind the clinic. These stories became the catalyst for positioning the CCC as a model of community engagement for crisis response.

    Several lessons were identified but likely the most insightful one for formal emergency agencies and government was the realization that emergency response is not always a complex and difficult task. In the case of the CCC, it was not difficult to drive seniors to the vaccination clinic. It was not difficult for volunteers to assist with documentation at the mobile clinics. It was not difficult for retired teachers to use stuffed toys so children wouldn’t be scared by the vaccine. And it was not difficult for local businesses to donate materials and labour so that the clinic was built according to protocol.

    Therefore, instead of making emergency response seem unduly complex for volunteers, emergency agencies ought to welcome their involvement. In fact, it might even be wise for emergency agencies to learn about the way community volunteers respond – since it seems they can be effective – to welcome their input, and thus enhance a community’s emergency response capacity.

    Three strategies communities can implement to get started

    If you and others would like to help prepare your community to become an effective partner to official emergency responders, here are some strategies to help organize your efforts:

    1. Foster ongoing relationships with community partners, not just during crisis.

    Remember that everyone brings expertise to the table and that partnerships may involve groups you don’t always think of. Therefore, welcome community partners as part of task forces. It helps the community see a different side of government organizations despite their reputation for being slow to pivot, or too bureaucratic.

    2. Maintain a repository of community members’ skills, don’t leave it to chance.

    During crisis, this repository or database will facilitate decision-making regarding distribution of tasks among volunteers and discover unique skills that otherwise would go unnoticed in a large community.

    3. Communicate through diverse channels, even if it feels redundant.

    Emergencies are emotionally draining for everyone. Frequent feedback and debriefing help strengthening engagement and morale. Therefore, use multiple and existing channels, such as huddles, newsletters, appreciation events, etc., and encourage community leaders to spread information to the larger community.

    Communities have shown that they play a vital role to large and small emergency responses: from COVID-19 tracing and vaccination, to organizing post-flood volunteer recovery efforts via digital platforms. However, community initiatives are often not recognized by emergency response organizations, and as a result community volunteers are often under-utilized.

    This tension over how to engage community volunteers to effectively respond to crisis and work with formal emergency response teams requires we all change how we think.

    Contemporary emergency management demands all hands-on deck. As the Cobourg Community Centre clinic initiative demonstrated, instead of warding off community volunteers, the focus should be on ensuring they are ready to respond and educated on the scope of their involvement.

    Throughout her academic career, Sayra Cristancho has received tri-council research funding from the Canadian government as we all research funding from the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada and internal research funding from Western University.

    – ref. How better community engagement can improve emergency management in Canada – https://theconversation.com/how-better-community-engagement-can-improve-emergency-management-in-canada-239042

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Oilsands workers are resistant to sustainable jobs, new research finds

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Parker Muzzerall, PhD Candidate, Department of Sociology, University of British Columbia

    Like it or not, the energy transition is happening.

    The International Energy Agency predicts global fossil fuel production will reach its peak by 2030. Governments around the world — including Canada’s — are racing to implement policies aimed at achieving a net-zero energy economy by 2050.

    To reach that target, Canada has a lot of work to do.

    In 2022 alone, Canada emitted 708 megatonnes of CO2-eq (carbon dioxide equivalent, which measures the global warming potential of different greenhouse gases). On the production side, oil and gas extraction accounted for 3.5 per cent of Canada’s GDP and the oil and gas industry directly employed around 150,000 Canadians.

    While oil and gas production isn’t going to stop tomorrow, or even by the end of this decade, Canada must put policies in place today to ensure that those most dependant on the oil and gas industry are supported as the country — and the world — moves away from fossil fuels.

    Sustainable jobs

    In June 2024, the Canadian government took an important first step at doing so by giving royal assent to the Sustainable Jobs Act. Over the next few years, the act is intended to create a suite of policy programs aimed at ensuring all Canadians have equal opportunity and access to decent, well-paying jobs in a net-zero future.

    While the Sustainable Jobs Act is primarily intended to support oil and gas workers, my recent study published in the journal Environmental Sociology identifies one important problem: oil and gas workers like the jobs they already have.

    Since the 2015 Paris Agreement, the phrase “just transition” has become common shorthand in policymaker, academic and activist circles to describe policies like the Sustainable Jobs Act that explicitly seek to support vulnerable citizens through the renewable energy transition.

    In fact, the Sustainable Jobs Act was originally referred to as the Canadian Just Transition plan before the name was changed after the idea of a “just transition” became the target of fierce opposition from Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.

    Talking to oilsands workers

    Smith’s opposition to the term “just transition,” and also to the eventual Sustainable Jobs Act, is rooted in a fundamental belief that the Canadian oil and gas industry is not going anywhere and that the federal government should not interfere in the lives of hard-working Albertans.

    These beliefs, and the emotions underlying them, made appearances in my interviews with oilsands workers, too.

    Through 18 interviews with a diverse cross-section of oilsands employees — ranging from accounts managers to process operators — it was obvious that these hard-working people also remain optimistic about the long-term economic viability and need for the oilsands industry.

    More importantly, they are also strongly opposed to the idea of a just transition because, as one participant put it, “it’s almost like an incentive to leave oil and gas behind.”

    Beneath this concern, the participants also expressed a belief and a sense of frustration that the federal government and Canadians in other parts of the country do not care about them and their feelings of being excluded from Canada’s vision for the future. These feelings were underscored by a strong sense of regional pride in the Fort McMurray community and its oilsands industry.

    While climate advocates may shake their heads — or fists — at these findings, the feelings of my participants make perfect sense when you consider that, for these workers, the energy transition represents not just a threat to their livelihood but a threat to their community and way of life.

    As multiple participants made clear, without the oilsands, Fort McMurray would become a “ghost town.”

    Localizing transition policies

    So, what should policymakers and climate advocates committed to an equitable energy transition do with the knowledge that the workers for whom sustainable jobs are intended are not, in fact, all that interested in sustainable jobs?

    The answer lies, at least in part, in reframing how we think about transition policies.

    Large, national-level efforts like the Sustainable Jobs Act are effective at setting high-level policy priorities. But without specific plans to account for the vast geographic diversity in the Canadian energy economy, policy packages like this can also drive regional animosity by making some communities feel like decarbonization “sacrifice zones.”

    Instead, we need to embed transition planning within a place-based approach to regional and community development. This means creating pathways for all communities to thrive in a low-carbon future. This is particularly true for single-resource and rural communities with economies that are often highly reliant on fossil fuels and tend to be located farther away from green jobs.

    It’s easy for these regions to feel excluded from Canada’s vision for a net-zero future. And that’s not fair. No community should be decarbonized into a ghost town.

    Passing the Sustainable Jobs Act was an important first step. Creating sustainable jobs that are regionally accessible, locally meaningful and economically desirable is the next big hurdle.

    Parker Muzzerall receives funding from The Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. Oilsands workers are resistant to sustainable jobs, new research finds – https://theconversation.com/oilsands-workers-are-resistant-to-sustainable-jobs-new-research-finds-239057

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Struggling to make decisions at work? Learn how to build confidence

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Leda Stawnychko, Assistant Professor of Strategy and Organizational Theory, Mount Royal University

    A lack of experience often causes new leaders to hold back, intimidated by the fear of making mistakes. (Shutterstock)

    One of the most daunting tasks for new leaders is making decisions that impact others. Although the average person makes thousands of conscious decisions each day — some estimates suggest as many as 35,000 — when it comes to making decisions in the workplace, many hesitate.

    A lack of experience often causes new leaders to hold back, intimidated by the fear of making mistakes. The stakes can feel high, as their choices can have far-reaching consequences, not only for themselves but also for the organization and its employees.

    New leaders might face decisions such as delegating responsibilities among team members, prioritizing projects with limited resources or managing conflicts between employees.

    With time and practice, leaders learn to develop decisiveness — the ability to listen to their intuition for making effective, quick decisions. Decisiveness is not about being rash, but about having the confidence to act based on evidence and experience.

    Effective decision-makers balance competing priorities and options while staying deeply aware of the needs of their stakeholders, from employees and colleagues to customers and investors. Once they reach a decision, they follow through with firm, resolute action.

    A bar above the rest

    What sets effective leaders apart is their ability to consistently make decisions that drive organizational success. These leaders understand the difference between operational and strategic decisions, and how each serves a different purpose.

    Operational decisions deal with immediate concerns, focusing on day-to-day activities that require quick responses to keep the business running smoothly. For example, an operational decision might involve addressing a staffing shortage, resolving a technical issue or adjusting a production schedule.

    Strategic decisions, on the other hand, are more complex, involve higher risks and require a broader perspective. They focus on the future direction of the organization and may involve a careful assessment of external factors, such as launching a new product or restructuring a department.

    Building decision-making skills

    But how do emerging leaders develop the skill to confidently make decisions, especially when there are many possible options? To build a strong foundation for decisive leadership, consider these three practical strategies:

    1. Clarify your values

    Understanding your core values is crucial for effective and ethical decision-making. When you and your staff are clear on what matters most to you, decision-making becomes easier.

    For example, if you believe in transparency, you will communicate the decision-making process and outcomes to your team. They will trust that even if they don’t all agree with your decision, they’ll be informed promptly and consistently.

    To gain clarity about your values, reflect on past decisions, consider what felt right or wrong, and identify common themes that guided your actions. You can also use one of the many free assessments available online.

    ‘How to make faster decisions’ from TED’s the Way We Work video series.

    2. Use a decision-making framework

    There are several tools to help guide confident decision-making, especially early in your career. One simple and effective option is the 5 Ws Framework.

    The framework helps leaders think through these essential questions: Who will be affected? What are the available options? When does the decision need to be made? Why is this decision necessary? And how will the decision be executed?

    Using this framework helps emerging leaders quickly assess all angles of a situation and make thoughtful decisions that ensure no critical factors are missed.

    3. Learn from your network

    One of the most effective ways to develop leadership skills is by learning from others. Observe how your peers and more experienced leaders make decisions, ask them insightful questions and seek their feedback on your own decisions.

    Reflecting on your interactions with them can help you refine your decision-making style and identify areas for growth. It can also help you become more comfortable with ambiguity, risk and uncertainty. The support from your network will boost your confidence and provide much-needed encouragement in times of doubt.

    Other things to keep in mind

    Leaders in AI-integrated workplaces will need not only strong decision-making skills but also the ability to apply a critical ethical lens.

    Artificial intelligence offers many opportunities to accelerate decision-making and improve efficiency. However, the interconnectedness of algorithms, people and data also brings with it complex ethical and sustainability problems.

    To avoid the unintended consequences of AI such as algorithmic bias or privacy violations, leaders across all sectors must carefully evaluate the ethical implications of all decisions and ensure they align with principles of fairness and long-term sustainability.

    An explanation of AI ethics from IBM Technology.

    In technology-dependent workplaces, emotional intelligence becomes a crucial asset. Leaders who are self-aware and in tune with their emotions can pause to make thoughtful, deliberate decisions, instead of reacting impulsively.

    Mindfulness practices, such as deep breathing and meditation, can help maintain focus and clarity, particularly in situations of high pressure. A clear and centred mind allows leaders to make decisions that align with ethical standards and the long-term interests of people, the planet and profit.

    As you continue to develop your leadership skills, be patient with yourself and remember that leader development is a life-long journey of growth. To help you stay sharp and avoid decision fatigue, prioritize self-care taking time to rest, recharge and reflect.

    By practicing these strategies, staying true to your values, and leaning on your network, you’ll build the confidence you need to tackle any challenge that comes your way. Embrace the process, take care of yourself and trust that each decision you make brings you closer to becoming the decisive leader you aspire to be.

    Leda Stawnychko receives funding from SSHRC.

    MacDonald Oguike does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Struggling to make decisions at work? Learn how to build confidence – https://theconversation.com/struggling-to-make-decisions-at-work-learn-how-to-build-confidence-239183

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: B.C.’s plan for involuntary addiction treatment is a step back in our response to the overdose crisis

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kora DeBeck, Professor, School of Public Policy; Dorothy Killam Fellow; CIHR Applied Public Health Chair, Simon Fraser University

    British Columbia Premier David Eby recently announced that his government plans to open highly secure facilities where people struggling with mental health, serious brain injuries and severe addictions will receive involuntary care.

    The B.C. government describes the move as a new phase of its response to the addiction crisis that includes a promise to change the law to “ensure that people, including youth, can and should receive care when they are unable to seek it themselves.”

    Unregulated drugs kill an average of six British Columbians every day. Since a public health emergency was declared in 2016, more than 15,000 people in B.C. have died from consuming unregulated drugs.

    Interventions and services

    Policymakers along with affected communities are struggling to identify, implement and scale up necessary interventions and services. Many highlight that we need all the tools in our toolkit to respond to this unprecedented crisis.

    Currently, involuntary admissions to care facilities are possible for people with a “disorder of the mind” through B.C.’s Mental Health Act. Between 2011-12 and 2020-21, the number of voluntary admissions in B.C. remained relatively stable (10,000 to 12,000) but involuntary admissions increased from 11,000 to more than 17,000 during this time period.

    Expanding involuntary care to people with addictions is intuitively appealing to some. Supporters of the idea position it as compassionate intervention that keeps the most vulnerable safe. But drug addiction and treatment are complex.

    While parents, policymakers and others rightfully want to do everything they can to protect young people from harmful drugs, in the long run, involuntary treatment will cause more harm than good.

    Involuntary treatment is dangerous

    Scientific evidence is lacking that supports involuntary addiction treatment as an effective approach for reducing substance use and related harms among vulnerable populations. A 2020 study of more than 3,000 people who use drugs in Vancouver found no significant improvements in substance use outcomes among those who were coerced into addiction treatment compared to people who received no treatment.

    We also know that substance dependence is a complex chronic condition and relapse is common. Relapse after a period of abstinence is a particularly dangerous time due to reduced tolerance. Indeed, the risk of overdose death has been found to be highest immediately after discharge from compulsory care, voluntary treatment and hospitals, as well as upon release from prison.

    A lack of effectiveness paired with serious increased risk of a fatal overdose, particularly in the era of illicit fentanyl, are not the only weaknesses of involuntary treatment for people with addictions.

    Involuntary treatment can undermine trust

    Accounts from young people who have experienced being coerced into treatment highlight that involuntary care can be counterproductive and risks pushing vulnerable young people away from the very services they need most.

    After consulting with young people who use drugs, the B.C. Representative for Children and Youth in 2021 cautioned that involuntary care “may create distress in young people to the extent that they may come to distrust the health-care system and be less inclined to seek support when it is needed.”

    Research scientist Danya Fast, who has more than a decade of experience working with young people who use drugs, has described seeing “the lengths that some young people would go to in order to evade or escape from [institutional] places, often with devastating effects. I knew that even the threat of involuntary hospitalization could lead some to avoid calling 911 if someone was overdosing and needed help.”

    Furthermore, a 2023 qualitative study with parents who resorted to involuntary treatment in Alberta describes how for some, forcing their child into treatment harmed their relationship, and for many, did not result in improvements in their children’s risky substance use behaviours.

    Addiction treatment in the era of fentanyl

    In the context of forced addiction treatment, it’s important to recognize that the effectiveness of current medications for opioid dependence (typically methadone and suboxone) is limited, particularly for young people.

    In a study among young people who used opioids in Vancouver between 2005-2018, initiating an opioid agonist therapy (primarily methadone or suboxone) was not found to be protective for non-fatal overdose. In addition, 60 per cent of young people who initiated methadone prematurely discontinue their treatment.

    This is consistent with emerging evidence from B.C. indicating that retention on methadone and suboxone have both been consistently declining over the last decade, which corresponds to the emergence of illicitly manufactured fentanyl in the province.

    Given the volatility of street drugs and increasing exposure to and dependence on highly potent fentanyl, the clinical management of opioid dependence is increasingly complex. This reality makes forcing people into addiction treatment against their will particularly concerning.

    There is also widespread evidence that the existing voluntary addiction treatment system is inadequate and fails to provide appropriate care. It is our view that resources are better directed towards improving the existing voluntary treatment system and ensuring there are comprehensive supports available throughout the continuum of care.

    Alternatives to involuntary treatment

    The safety of our children and communities would be enhanced if governments strengthened and expanded the voluntary treatment system and evidence-based prevention programs. Substance dependence is a chronic relapsing condition. Therefore, accessible harm reduction programs and addressing the toxic supply of drugs are critical steps to prevent overdose deaths and other drug related harms.

    B.C.’s provincial health officer issued a report in July 2024 outlining how a public health approach could be leveraged to provide alternatives to the toxic drug supply.

    While some may think we have already tried drug regulation, current prescribed “safe” supply programs include less than five per cent of the estimated 115,000 people in B.C. with an opioid use disorder.

    Analyses of overdose fatalities also indicate that the majority of people who died from drug poisonings did not have a diagnosed opioid use disorder or use opioids on a daily basis. These individuals would not have been eligible for existing prescribed safe supply.

    This underscores that current initiatives are not reaching the vast majority of the population at risk of a toxic drug poisoning. There are also many different approaches and models that could be considered for drug regulation.

    As we have outlined previously, innovation and transformational policy action to strictly regulate the production, distribution and consumption of currently illegal drugs is a promising way forward.



    Read more:
    Drug prohibition is fuelling the overdose crisis: Regulating drugs is the way out

    We empathize and relate to parents and caregivers who want to do everything possible to protect their children. However, we cannot “treat” our way out of our current crisis and involuntary treatment is a particularly risky and harmful tool.

    Evidence-based interventions across the pillars of early prevention, voluntary treatment and harm reduction, along with rigorous drug regulation that tightly controls the production, distribution and consumption of currently illegal drugs, will give us the most control over the toxic drug supply. This mix of foundational and innovative public health tools will be best positioned to reduce risky substance use and related health and social harms.

    Kora DeBeck receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the US National Institutes of Health and the National Killam Program. She is also a Research Scientist with the BC Centre on Substance Use.

    Perry Kendall was a cofounder of Fair Price Pharma, a not-for-profit dedicated to providing low-cost Canadian access to diacetylmorphine morphine as a treatment option for individuals whose treatment needs are not met by first-line available medications for opioid substance use disorder. He is no longer on the board, but remains a vocal advocate for the expansion of evidence-based therapeutics for opioid substance use disorder.

    – ref. B.C.’s plan for involuntary addiction treatment is a step back in our response to the overdose crisis – https://theconversation.com/b-c-s-plan-for-involuntary-addiction-treatment-is-a-step-back-in-our-response-to-the-overdose-crisis-239367

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Business confidence in South Africa: how a 70-year-old survey has given early signals of the economy’s pulse

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Johann Kirsten, Director of the Bureau for Economic Research, Stellenbosch University

    Business tendency surveys provide very useful indicators of trends within an economy. The information is available well before the official statistics, such as GDP growth, and provides insights into business dynamics that cannot be found elsewhere.

    For 70 years the Bureau for Economic Research at South Africa’s Stellenbosch University has been conducting business tendency surveys. Indeed, South Africa remains one of the few countries where these surveys are conducted by a non-state agency.

    The surveys cover a range of questions, tracking everything from activity to demand, selling prices to inventories, investment and also the constraints holding back investment. But the most important question is very simple: are you satisfied with prevailing business conditions? Respondents can only respond with a yes or a no. There is no scale, no maybe, no but. It is a pure gut feeling. This is the only true measure of business sentiment in South Africa.

    While it can be argued that at times of fast production growth sentiment is more upbeat (and vice versa during a recession), sentiment typically turns before you see production growth. Respondents to Bureau for Economic Research surveys know their business like the palm of their hand. They sense when something starts changing and know when they can turn cautiously optimistic about conditions even though activity is not there (yet). As illustrated in the figure below, confidence often turns before the business cycle phase changes from an upward to a downward phase (and the other way around).

    Changes in sentiment tell us a lot about investment intentions, as well as the potential for faster economic growth and job creation in the economy. If business people in South Africa are downbeat about business conditions, it is near impossible to see growth accelerate. Why build a new factory or employ workers if you are not, at the very least, satisfied with the environment you have to operate in today?

    While the survey process has changed over the past seven decades, the value of the insights has not. South Africa’s new government of national unity has promised to tackle the country’s structural constraints, with reforms aimed at improving electricity, infrastructure, water and logistics. By providing a reliable measure of sentiment, the survey will go a long way in assessing whether they are successful.

    Business confidence ahead of economic shifts

    While we survey a range of sectors, only the responses of a specific set of sectors are compiled into the so-called composite Business Confidence Index. This index is sponsored by Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) and is known as the RMB/BER BCI.

    The index looks at the responses of manufacturers, retailers, wholesalers, new vehicle dealers and main building contractors. These sectors represent the productive sectors of the economy and tend to lead the rest of the economy.

    So, if something changes here, one can be fairly sure that it will soon start changing in the rest of the economy. Manufacturers, for example, have a feel for both domestic and export demand conditions, which later trickle through the rest of the economy. New vehicle dealers will be the first to know when local consumers start holding their purse strings.

    In most sectors the survey also asks respondents about constraints to business conditions. We ask the same set of questions each quarter and have been doing so for decades. This gives us a very powerful, long-term time series of data. For example, over the last ten years, manufacturers have almost consistently seen the general political climate as the most serious constraint on business conditions.

    The Absa Manufacturing Survey shows that it’s a more serious constraint than insufficient demand or the short-term interest rate, despite the latter being at the highest level in 15 years. Interestingly, the political climate constraint fell sharply in the third quarter of 2024, following the formation of the government of national unity. The disruptions at local ports were also picked up by our surveys, with load-shedding top of mind for many respondents in 2023 (and before).

    The graph below shows a long-term series of business confidence. A reading of 100 would signal extreme optimism with every respondent satisfied with business conditions – this has never happened before. A reading of zero means not a single respondent is satisfied with business conditions. This, too, has not happened before, but we did see confidence fall to just 5 index points in the second quarter of 2020, the worst of the COVID-19 lockdowns, with many businesses forced to close temporarily. The BER surveys provided invaluable information about business dynamics in the formal economy during the pandemic and the recovery.

    Figure 1: RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI)

    The RMB/BER BCI edged up by three index points to 38 in the third quarter of 2024. This was the first survey after the formation of the new government, and some may have hoped for a bigger boost to sentiment. Still, underlying results suggest respondents are turning cautiously more optimistic about the future. For the first time since early 2022, most respondents across the different sectors expect business conditions to improve in 12 months’ time, instead of deteriorating (further).

    Current demand conditions, however, remained tough, which held back a bigger recovery in sentiment.

    A firm commitment by the new government of national unity to continue with structural reform aimed at alleviating the constraints on the South African economy and an effort to bring down the cost of doing business (by lowering the administrative burden, for example) would go a long way in supporting a more pronounced recovery in business confidence.

    Higher confidence will translate into faster economic growth over time.

    How the index is compiled

    Taking a step back, in 1954, and for many decades after that, everything at the BER was done by hand. The surveys were sent by post, and indices were painstakingly calculated as the responses trickled in. Some graphs were even drawn up by hand. Over time, more electronics became involved. South African postal services deteriorated to such an extent that relying on them was no longer feasible.

    The little pigeonholes for the postal letters at the BER offices were removed earlier this year and all survey responses are now received via email. Responses are weighted for firm and sector size, and we try to keep the survey as representative of the sectors as possible.

    It is becoming increasingly difficult to expand our panel in a world where inboxes are flooded with fly-by-night surveys and spam. Our close relationship with international bodies such as the Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys and our academic footing as a university research institute ensures that we continue to follow global best practices.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Business confidence in South Africa: how a 70-year-old survey has given early signals of the economy’s pulse – https://theconversation.com/business-confidence-in-south-africa-how-a-70-year-old-survey-has-given-early-signals-of-the-economys-pulse-237773

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Historic racism still negatively affects the way paintings of black people are perceived – as our study shows

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tobiasz Trawinski, Lecturer in psychology, Liverpool Hope University

    There is little doubt that historic racism has influenced the content and composition of several famous figurative paintings. In March 2024, this could be seen in the debate around the exhibition of the Rex Whistler mural, The Expedition in Pursuit of Rare Meats (1927), at the Tate Britain. Critics asked whether such artworks should remain on public display.

    There are several shocking elements of Rex Whistler’s mural, originally commissioned by the Tate as “decoration for the new refreshment room”, including the image of a black child chained to a horse and cart as it moves at speed. The debate raises the question – does the ongoing presence of artworks like this in public spaces serve to confront or maintain historic racist views?

    In some instances, the racist attitudes behind such paintings have been explicitly expressed by artists or painting owners, making them well-documented. Take, for example, John Trumbull (1715–1787), a painter who had several enslaved people living in his household. Another example is Gilbert Winter Moss (1828–1899), a banker who owned Richard Ansdell’s painting The Hunted Slaves (1861). According to the UCL Legacies of Slavery database, Moss’s family was deeply involved in the slave trade. In other cases, things aren’t so clear-cut.

    But even if not explicitly expressed, racist attitudes may have been implicitly held, to an extent that they were able to influence the creative process. Implicitly held racial attitudes are mental associations that, when triggered by race, can guide people’s judgment and actions. As a researcher in psychology, I wanted to explore if implicitly held racial attitudes affect the viewing of paintings when the images themselves make no suggestion of racial inequality.

    Alongside my colleagues, I have explored this question in a series of recent studies of portraits of black and white people. In one study, we used gaze-mapping technology to measure the eye movements made by visitors to the Walker Art Gallery in Liverpool.

    The measurement of when and where our eyes move, and how long they focus on specific objects, provides a time-sensitive index on what is important to viewers. We measured the eye movements of the visitors to the gallery who agreed to take part in our study as they looked at a set of five portraits of black sitters (including Two Jamaican Girls by Augustus John, 1937) and five portraits of white sitters (including Interior at Paddington by Lucian Freud, 1951).

    Their task was to say how much pleasure they experienced when looking at each painting. We also assessed the visitors to the gallery on their implicit racial attitudes and actual contact with different racial communities.

    Our results

    Our study showed that visitors to the gallery who reported little contact with black people and who held negative implicit racial attitudes reported experiencing little pleasure when viewing paintings showing black sitters.

    Perhaps more surprisingly, though they reported little pleasure, these visitors focused their attention more on the faces of the black sitters than others did. The results suggest that little contact with black people, combined with holding negative implicit racial attitudes, can be associated with an undue focus on black faces when viewing these paintings.

    We believe our findings suggest that negative implicit racial attitudes have not only influenced the historic content and composition of some paintings, but continue to exert an influence on the viewing of paintings in the present day. Moreover, the influence of negative implicit racial attitudes on the viewing of paintings exerts its effect even when the images themselves are quite neutral.

    Whether or not racist paintings are removed from public spaces, our results show that implicit racial attitudes will, for some viewers, continue to exert an influence on their perception of paintings representing black people and culture.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Tobiasz Trawinski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Historic racism still negatively affects the way paintings of black people are perceived – as our study shows – https://theconversation.com/historic-racism-still-negatively-affects-the-way-paintings-of-black-people-are-perceived-as-our-study-shows-227007

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: OpenAI’s Strawberry program is reportedly capable of reasoning. It might be able to deceive humans

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Shweta Singh, Assistant Professor, Information Systems and Management, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

    OpenAI, the company that made ChatGPT, has launched a new artificial intelligence (AI) system called Strawberry. It is designed not just to provide quick responses to questions, like ChatGPT, but to think or “reason”.

    This raises several major concerns. If Strawberry really is capable of some form of reasoning, could this AI system cheat and deceive humans?

    OpenAI can program the AI in ways that mitigate its ability to manipulate humans. But the company’s own evaluations rate it as a “medium risk” for its ability to assist experts in the “operational planning of reproducing a known biological threat” – in other words, a biological weapon. It was also rated as a medium risk for its ability to persuade humans to change their thinking.

    It remains to be seen how such a system might be used by those with bad intentions, such as con artists or hackers. Nevertheless, OpenAI’s evaluation states that medium-risk systems can be released for wider use – a position I believe is misguided.

    Strawberry is not one AI “model”, or program, but several – known collectively as o1. These models are intended to answer complex questions and solve intricate maths problems. They are also capable of writing computer code – to help you make your own website or app, for example.

    An apparent ability to reason might come as a surprise to some, since this is generally considered a precursor to judgment and decision making – something that has often seemed a distant goal for AI. So, on the surface at least, it would seem to move artificial intelligence a step closer to human-like intelligence.

    When things look too good to be true, there’s often a catch. Well, this set of new AI models is designed to maximise their goals. What does this mean in practice? To achieve its desired objective, the path or the strategy chosen by AI may not always necessarily be fair, or align with human values.

    True intentions

    For example, if you were to play chess against Strawberry, in theory, could its reasoning allow it to hack the scoring system rather than figure out the best strategies for winning the game?

    The AI might also be able to lie to humans about its true intentions and capabilities, which would pose a serious safety concern if it were to be deployed widely. For example, if the AI knew it was infected with malware, could it “choose” to conceal this fact in the knowledge that a human operator might opt to disable the whole system if they knew?

    Strawberry goes a step beyond the capabilities of AI chatbots.
    Robert Way / Shutterstock

    These would be classic examples of unethical AI behaviour, where cheating or deceiving is acceptable if it leads to a desired goal. It would also be quicker for the AI, as it wouldn’t have to waste any time figuring out the next best move. It may not necessarily be morally correct, however.

    This leads to a rather interesting yet worrying discussion. What level of reasoning is Strawberry capable of and what could its unintended consequences be? A powerful AI system that’s capable of cheating humans could pose serious ethical, legal and financial risks to us.

    Such risks become grave in critical situations, such as designing weapons of mass destruction. OpenAI rates its own Strawberry models as “medium risk” for their potential to assist scientists in developing chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

    OpenAI says: “Our evaluations found that o1-preview and o1-mini can help experts with the operational planning of reproducing a known biological threat.” But it goes on to say that experts already have significant expertise in these areas, so the risk would be limited in practice. It adds: “The models do not enable non-experts to create biological threats, because creating such a threat requires hands-on laboratory skills that the models cannot replace.”

    Powers of persuasion

    OpenAI’s evaluation of Strawberry also investigated the risk that it could persuade humans to change their beliefs. The new o1 models were found to be more persuasive and more manipulative than ChatGPT.

    OpenAI also tested a mitigation system that was able to reduce the manipulative capabilities of the AI system. Overall, Strawberry was labelled a medium risk for “persuasion” in Open AI’s tests.

    Strawberry was rated low risk for its ability to operate autonomously and on cybersecurity.

    Open AI’s policy states that “medium risk” models can be released for wide use. In my view, this underestimates the threat. The deployment of such models could be catastrophic, especially if bad actors manipulate the technology for their own pursuits.

    This calls for strong checks and balances that will only be possible through AI regulation and legal frameworks, such as penalising incorrect risk assessments and the misuse of AI.

    The UK government stressed the need for “safety, security and robustness” in their 2023 AI white paper, but that’s not nearly enough. There is an urgent need to prioritise human safety and devise rigid scrutiny protocols for AI models such as Strawberry.

    Shweta Singh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. OpenAI’s Strawberry program is reportedly capable of reasoning. It might be able to deceive humans – https://theconversation.com/openais-strawberry-program-is-reportedly-capable-of-reasoning-it-might-be-able-to-deceive-humans-239748

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Did COVID come from an animal market? Here’s what the new evidence really tells us

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, The University of Edinburgh

    The argument about the origins of COVID has always been heated, and nowadays it feels more like a brawl than a scientific debate.

    Some say that ground zero for the pandemic was a live animal market in Wuhan, China. Others argue that SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID) leaked from a nearby laboratory that was studying similar viruses. Both are plausible scenarios.

    Proponents of the market hypothesis have been aggressively vocal in recent weeks. In August, an anonymous editorial in a leading medical journal talked about the “hubris needed to underpin alternative hypotheses” and “fanciful ideas … more in keeping with popular movies”.

    A commentary in another journal lamented that scientists were being harassed for rejecting the lab leak hypothesis. With breathtaking hypocrisy, the same commentary then attacked a junior researcher who favours that hypothesis, dismissing her work as “conjecture, correlation and anecdote”.

    We can at least agree that the virus was present in the Wuhan market. Samples collected from market stalls and drains in early January 2020 contain SARS-CoV-2 genetic material. A recent analysis of this material, published in the journal Cell, claimed to show that the common ancestor of the viruses at the market was the common ancestor of the whole pandemic.

    That sounds compelling, until you realise that all of these samples were collected weeks after the pandemic began and none came from a live animal. Unaccountably, no samples were collected before the market was closed and the animals destroyed. Primarily for this reason, most commentators – including me – consider these latest results suggestive but not definitive.

    The lack of samples from animals is a problem. No one believes that this virus originated in Wuhan. The natural reservoirs of SARS-like coronaviruses are horseshoe bats, and no infected colonies have been found within 1,500km of the city.

    So it must have been brought into the market from somewhere. Yet no SARS-CoV-2 has been found along the supply chains for the animals sold there.

    Could a person rather than an animal have brought SARS-CoV-2 into the market in late 2019? That’s entirely possible. Many of the viruses near the base of the SARS-CoV-2 ancestral tree came from people with no links to the market. Several, including a cluster from Guangdong Province, were not even from Wuhan.

    Despite the many uncertainties and unanswered questions, it would be much easier to accept the market hypothesis if the pandemic had begun in one of the hundreds (or possibly thousands – no one seems to know for sure) of other Chinese cities that had similar markets in 2020.

    After all, the 2002 outbreak of the original SARS coronavirus (a very close relative of SARS-CoV-2) began in a market selling civet cats and other animals in, as it happens, Guangdong.

    Yet the epicentre of the COVID pandemic was less than 20 kilometres from China’s pre-eminent coronavirus research lab, the Wuhan Institute of Virology. That is an extraordinary coincidence, and you’d need compelling evidence that the market was the source (or that the lab wasn’t) to dismiss it. The evidence we have simply isn’t that strong.

    That said, there is no evidence – at least, not that the Chinese authorities have shared – that SARS-CoV-2 was present in the Wuhan Institute of Virology, though some closely related viruses were. I cannot know if it was or wasn’t, but it didn’t have to be.

    Scientists from the institute went on coronavirus-hunting expeditions to places such as Guangdong. Scientists from the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention – just a five-minute walk from the market – were making their own expeditions, too. There’s an obvious and plausible alternative route to the first human case.

    Dismissed as a conspiracy theory

    Yet as far back as March 2020, on a bare minimum of evidence, the idea that a lab was involved in any way was already being dismissed as a conspiracy theory.

    Two years ago, one of the most strident proponents of the market hypothesis claimed that his latest research “lays to rest the idea that the virus escaped from a laboratory”. An author of the new analysis in Cell says alternative explanations are “fanciful” and “absurd”.

    Who is all this bombast supposed to win over? Not scientists who can read the research papers, take note of the caveats and make their own judgments. Not politicians who have taken an ideological stance on the issue, particularly in the US. And not the intelligence agencies who many believe are our best hope for getting at the truth.

    I have studied the origins of human viruses for 25 years but, having examined the evidence, I still don’t know how the COVID pandemic began. I do know that the question is important and that debating it should be encouraged, not stifled.

    Mark Woolhouse receives funding from the European Union and the Wellcome Trust. He is a member of the Scottish Government’s Standing Committee on Pandemic Preparedness and has advised the Scottish and UK governments, and the WHO, on pandemic preparedness and response.

    – ref. Did COVID come from an animal market? Here’s what the new evidence really tells us – https://theconversation.com/did-covid-come-from-an-animal-market-heres-what-the-new-evidence-really-tells-us-239533

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why building new towns isn’t the answer to the UK’s housing crisis

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amrita Kulka, Assistant Professor, Political Economy and Public Economics, University of Warwick

    The UK is aiming to build 1.5 million homes over five years. Nick Beer/Shutterstock

    The UK’s new government is intent on building 1.5 million homes over the next five years. It’s all part of the plan to address the housing supply and affordability crisis.

    Many of these homes are to be built in the form of large communities or new towns of more than 10,000 housing units each. Some English new towns built after the second world war, such as Milton Keynes, Harlow and Basildon, have been successful economically. But the building of new towns has ground to a halt since the 1990s.

    The importance of large developments for housing supply in the UK has increased dramatically in the last 25 years. We have put together new evidence that reveals a significant shift in the source of housing supply. These days, an increasing share of new homes are coming from large developments.

    At the turn of the century, very large developments of at least 500 units made up only single digits of the total percentage of potential housing supply. Today, such developments represent 38% of permitted housing units. These very large projects only made up 0.2% of applications over the 25 years, but make up a disproportionately large chunk of new housing supply.

    This graphic shows the share of permitted new homes from 2000 to 2023 for applications of different development sizes across the UK.

    Proportion of new homes by development size

    Our research, undertaken with the support of our research assistant Alex Gallagher, explores the barriers that developments face in terms of paperwork and waiting time for a decision. We show that the amount of paperwork increases dramatically with the size of the project, going from one application for projects involving one unit, to more than eight applications for projects involving 500 or more units.

    The additional paperwork is generated by things like environmental surveys, infrastructure needs and public utilities.

    Northstowe in Cambridgeshire, which was planned to be the largest new town since Milton Keynes was built in the 1960s, also required funding for local infrastructure. Developers were obliged to contribute more than £120 million, most of which went to the construction of local schools. The development was left in limbo for around four years due to a delay to the expansion of the A14 trunk road, upon which the new town was entirely dependent. It is still not complete, with residents frustrated at the lack of infrastructure.

    In the case of Buckshaw Village, a new Lancashire development built on a former munitions factory, developers had to decontaminate the site. This required a £10.5 million contract to decontaminate more than 850 buildings.

    Of course many of these requirements are necessary, and beneficial for long-term planning. But it demonstrates that building a new town goes far beyond constructing houses.

    Decade-long delays

    In our research we also find that the time taken to reach a planning decision rises dramatically from projects involving one unit to projects involving two to nine units, and keeps rising for larger projects. The average time from the first application to the last decision is just over four years and four months for projects with more than 500 units. But even projects involving just one unit can expect to wait nearly a year.

    For bigger projects, waiting times for a decision are over 11 years in some cases (the most delayed 10%). One example is Ebbsfleet Valley – another newly planned town near London with large potential – which has seen only 4,000 of 43,000 planned homes built since planning began in 1996.

    The time taken for a planning decision plays a role in this delay. The borough councils resolved to grant outline planning permission (which lets a developer know if its plans are acceptable in principle) in 1998, two years after the application was submitted. But outline planning permission was not actually granted until November 2002. And then the need to supply more plans caused further delays, which meant building did not start until 2006 – 10 years after the original outline was filed.

    The long wait times for decisions, added to the fact that bigger developments must file additional applications, mean that housing supply from large projects is slow to be realised.

    These barriers have important implications for developers, which have to weigh the cost savings of large developments against the increased chance of obstacles that these larger developments are likely to throw up. So are new towns the most effective way to build a large amount of housing units in a short space of time?

    New towns are most comparable to the large-scale developments that represent an increasing share of residential units in the UK since the early 2000s.

    While these development schemes can deliver large amounts of housing alongside local infrastructure (at the developer’s expense rather than local government), they are unlikely to do so in the short term as they also face the toughest barriers under planning regulations.

    Therefore, so-called infill developments (that is, new buildings on unused or under-used land) as well as smaller and medium-sized developments, should not be neglected.

    Urban extensions and new neighbourhoods in the sites we’re already living in may provide ways to keep costs and uncertainties of new infrastructure to a minimum – even while planning larger developments or the new towns of the future.

    Amrita Kulka receives funding from Research England.

    Nikhil Datta receives funding from the British Academy, Leverhulme Trust, Economic and Social Research Council, and Research England.

    – ref. Why building new towns isn’t the answer to the UK’s housing crisis – https://theconversation.com/why-building-new-towns-isnt-the-answer-to-the-uks-housing-crisis-238635

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Climate change is easier to study when it’s presented as a game

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ian Thacker, Assistant Professor of Educational Psychology, The University of Texas at San Antonio

    A playful approach can make the often complicated subject of climate change easier to understand. Victor Habbick Visions/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

    Climate change is among the more difficult but important topics to teach to young people. It involves complicated science and data, and it can be really depressing, given the bleak picture it paints of Earth’s future.

    So how do educators get students more engaged in lessons about climate change? One way that works is to make the lessons into a game.

    As a professor of educational psychology, I conducted an experiment that found that high schoolers are more interested and absorb more information about climate change when it’s presented as a game.

    In the study, 248 high school students throughout the U.S. were randomly assigned to either read a text about climate science or to play a number estimation game – that is, a game in which they guessed 12 numerical facts about climate change. I found that the number estimation game improved high schoolers’ climate change understanding, interest in science and willingness to take actions to help solve climate change.

    For instance, one question asked: “What is the change in percentage of the world’s ocean ice cover since the 1960s?”

    After students submit an estimate, a window pops up showing the true value – a “40% decrease” in the ice cover question. Gold stars appear to indicate their accuracy, as does a short explanation of the true value. The answers also list actions that people can take to address the issue and links to the sources of the information.

    I found that students who played the game had a better understanding than those who did not that there is a scientific consensus around human-caused climate change. Students who played the game also thought the activity was more interesting and reported less boredom. These boosts in positive emotions and motivation were linked to reduced sense of hopelessness about climate change and improved willingness to act on climate change.

    Why it matters

    Climate change is a tricky topic for secondary students to learn. Not only is the science conceptually difficult to comprehend, but it can be psychologically difficult for them to accept and address the looming threat of climate change.

    Compounding this problem, a 2020 report suggests that 20 U.S. states do not address these challenges in their state science standards, as they were found to insufficiently address the scientific climate consensus: that climate change is real, severe, caused by humans, but that there is hope for change. Findings from my study provide some principles for addressing this curricular gap.

    What other research is being done?

    Researchers are actively trying to find approaches that promote accurate climate change education that helps students understand the causes and explores solutions for the challenges ahead.

    One promising approach emphasized in this study, in my prior research and by other researchers, is to present a handful of surprising climate change numbers to students after they estimate them. However, there are several alternative approaches that are also effective. For example, some research found success by breaking down complicated ways to evaluate evidence, while other research engaged students taking photographs of their local environment to depict climate science and reflect on possible solutions.

    What still isn’t known

    One big remaining question is how to encourage teachers to implement effective climate change education in their classrooms. Evidence suggests that teachers sometimes feel pressured to teach to “both sides” of the continuum of climate change perspectives, despite one side having more supporting evidence. Such inconsistent messages can diminish needed urgency and confuse students in the process. I think it’s worthwhile to investigate the specific challenges and rewards that teachers encounter when implementing clear and consistent climate curriculum in their classrooms.

    The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

    Ian Thacker received funding to support this research from the American Psychological Association Division 15 Early Career Research Grant Award.

    – ref. Climate change is easier to study when it’s presented as a game – https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-easier-to-study-when-its-presented-as-a-game-236544

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Continuing crackdown on churches and NGOs moves Nicaragua further from democracy to authoritarianism

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Richard Wood, President of the Institute for Advanced Catholic Studies, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

    A man prays at the Metropolitan Cathedral in Managua, the capital of Nicaragua, in August 2022. Oswaldo Rivas/AFP via Getty Images

    The Nicaraguan government recently shut down more than 1,500 nonprofits – many of them civic and religious groups doing humanitarian work in a country long mired in political violence, economic upheaval and social strife.

    The August 2024 closures were the latest in a long-running crackdown on civil society, including religious groups – some of the last influential, independent organizations in the country. That same month, the government revoked churches’ tax-exempt status. Over the past few years, many houses of worship have been closed or had their bank accounts frozen.

    As a sociologist, I have worked with Central American scholars to research the role of religion in public life in Central America, including Nicaragua. Several hundred Catholic figures have been detained in an ongoing crackdown under President Daniel Ortega, now 78, who leads the Sandinista National Liberation Front.

    Sweeping suppression

    Ortega’s FSLN party, as it is known in Spanish, is the authoritarian remnant of the group that led a broad national movement against Anastasio Somoza Debayle’s dictatorship in the 1970s. After overthrowing Somoza in 1979, Ortega and the Sandinistas governed until losing the 1990 election.

    Since Ortega returned to power in the 2006 elections, moderates have fled the FSLN, which since then has used oppression and violence for political and social control. In 2013, the National Assembly removed presidential term limits set by the Nicaraguan constitution.

    In April 2018, Ortega’s regime began targeting student protesters. Since then, hundreds of citizens — religious leaders, university students, academics, journalists and doctors — have been killed or arrested, gone into hiding or been forced to flee the country.

    Ortega’s crackdown has been broad. Universities had their assets confiscated and funding cut, and some have been shut down as the government took control of higher education. Media outlets have been shuttered, and international aid organizations have been expelled.

    Paramilitary police officers and prison guards have been accused of engaging in arbitrary killings and torture. Meanwhile, a record number of refugees are fleeing the country.

    Parishioners attend Mass at St. Agatha Catholic Church in Miami, which has become the spiritual home of the growing Nicaraguan diaspora.
    AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell

    Silencing churches

    Among the nearly 5,500 nonprofits that closed in Nicaragua between 2018 and 2024 are Catholic, evangelical Christian and historical Protestant organizations, as well as secular humanitarian ones. Of those, 1,650 organizations and churches were shuttered in August 2024, with government officials claiming their closure was due to ties to private enterprises or a lack of financial records.

    Catholic media and radio stations, missionary orders and humanitarian groups have been shuttered, too, as Ortega and the vice president – his wife, Rosario Murillo – have sought to eliminate settings where ideas and information freely flow, and people act independently of the government.

    The highest-profile religious leader caught up in the clampdown is Rolando Álvarez, a popular bishop, critic of Ortega, and a prominent Catholic voice of protest. Álvarez was detained in August 2022, accused of “conspiracy and spreading false news,” stripped of his citizenship and sentenced to 26 years in prison.

    Police officers and riot police block the main entrance of a church building in Matagalpa, Nicaragua, in August 2022 to prevent Bishop Rolando Álvarez from leaving.
    STR/AFP via Getty Images

    With international pressure mounting, Alvarez and a group of fellow detained Catholic clergy were released in January 2024 and exiled to the Vatican – where the regime had previously expelled the apostolic nuncio, the pope’s top diplomat in Nicaragua. They are among 245 Catholic figures the country has expelled in recent years. An additional 135 people, including Catholics and evangelicals, were expelled and stripped of their citizenship in September 2024.

    Today, 43% of Nicaraguan citizens identity as Catholics. But that percentage used to be much higher, and the country has deep cultural roots in Catholicism.

    In Nicaragua, as in much of Latin America, the Catholic Church is the most powerful source of social authority and the largest independent institution for public debate. It represents a key channel through which democratic values may take root, grow and thrive – an obstacle, in the regime’s eyes.

    For many years, the church was the only organization to escape Ortega’s grip – but no longer.

    Dangerous path

    I have witnessed firsthand Nicaragua’s shift from a country with promising seeds of democracy to violent autocracy. As civil war raged between the original Sandinista regime and U.S.-backed Contras in the 1980s, I led travel seminars to Nicaragua for faith groups, journalists, congressional aides and university students. I once personally encountered Ortega, serving as translator during a meeting with American journalists when his official translator failed to show up.

    Today, as Ortega continues to consolidate power by crushing opposition, Nicaragua has deteriorated into an oppressive state ruled with an iron fist. This reality reflects broader dynamics globally, from autocratic movements in the U.S. and Western Europe to current regimes in Russia, India, Turkey, Hungary and China.

    Nicaraguan citizens wave from a bus after being released from a Nicaraguan jail and landing in Guatemala City on Sept. 5, 2024.
    AP Photo/Moises Castillo

    Closer to home, Ortega poses a regional threat as a model for other potential autocrats. This is especially the case for neighbors like El Salvador, where President Nayib Bukele – the popular, self-described “coolest dictator” – is going down a similar path of turning the nation into an authoritarian state.

    I have seen Nicaraguans’ generosity and courage in the long fight for liberty and justice. The closure of democratic spaces, civic institutions and humanitarian organizations, along with the suppression of religious freedom, is a glaring sign that the country is being marched toward more oppression and violence – and, as history shows, risks becoming ripe for revolution.

    Only a gradual rebuilding of civil society, I believe, may save Nicaragua from that fate. The tragedy is what Nicaragua could have been: a thriving democratic society, with a commitment to empowering the poor.

    From 1983-1987 and part-time from 1987-1992, Richard Wood worked running travel seminars in Mexico and Central America. From 2010-2012, he received funding from the Center on Religion and Civic Culture at the University of Southern California and The John Templeton Foundation for research collaboration with Central American researchers.

    – ref. Continuing crackdown on churches and NGOs moves Nicaragua further from democracy to authoritarianism – https://theconversation.com/continuing-crackdown-on-churches-and-ngos-moves-nicaragua-further-from-democracy-to-authoritarianism-238178

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What America’s history can teach us about debates on religious freedom and its importance for democracy

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Corey D. B. Walker, Dean and Wake Forest Professor of the Humanities, Wake Forest University

    The decline in church attendance has not resulted in a diminished Christian presence in American public life. selimaksan/E+ via Getty images.

    Supporters of both major U.S. political parties tend to claim their presidential candidate is the “real” Christian or the “better” Christian or just the “true” Christian.

    For a majority of white evangelical protestants, Trump is the good Christian. Christians for Kamala, a newly created group of self-identified Christians who support the Democratic nominee, say that her campaign embodies the “compassionate heart of Jesus and his teachings.”

    Yet, most American adults agree that religion should be separate from government. This widely shared belief is a cornerstone of religious freedom. As a scholar of religious freedom, I have studied the complex and ever-evolving role of religion in American politics. I argue that this election year, while the Christian character of each candidate is discussed everywhere, religious freedom, one of the core freedoms of American democracy, is not.

    The case of Ezra Stiles Ely

    America’s history of religious freedom is filled with stories that are instructive for our current moment. One such instructive lesson comes from the early 19th century.

    The Second Great Awakening was an intense period of religious revival. Evangelical Christians sought to reform American law and politics to reflect what they considered to be true Christianity. According to legal scholar Geoffrey R. Stone, it was at this time the claim that the “United States is a ‘Christian nation’ first seriously took root.”

    Ezra Stiles Ely.
    The New York Public Library digital collections

    A striking figure from the period is the Philadelphia Presbyterian minister Ezra Stiles Ely. On July 4, 1827, the Yale-educated minister delivered his infamous call for “a Christian political party” in the run-up to the 1828 presidential election.

    Ely’s oration, The Duty of Christian Freemen to Elect Christian Rulers, is a 19th-century version of what is today called “Christian nationalism.” In it, Ely lays out his view of a distinctly Christian vision of who should serve as political leaders and how they should govern.

    Before an Independence Day audience in Philadelphia’s Seventh Presbyterian Church, Ely declared, “Every ruler should be an avowed and sincere friend of Christianity. He should know and believe the doctrines of our holy religion, and act in conformity to its precepts.” Ely also advocated for “a new sort of union, or, if you will, a Christian party in politics.”

    Ely closed his sermon by exhorting Christians to “awake … to our sacred duty to our Divine Master; and let us have no rulers, without our consent and cooperation, who are not known to be avowedly Christians.”

    Critiques in defense of religious freedom

    While Ely sought to wed Christianity and American politics, others voices responded against this move. Religious freedom was new for the young nation. Yet, its supporters recognized its importance for American democracy.

    On Feb. 7, 1828, a pamphlet titled Sunday School Union, or Union of Church and State was placed on the desk of each member of the Pennsylvania Senate. The pamphlet contained excerpts of Ely’s speech that advocated the union of Christianity and politics. Ely’s speech was also the subject of debate in several 19th-century newspapers, including the Harrisburg Chronicle and The Pennsylvania Reporter.

    Notable among these voices was Massachusetts-born and Harvard-educated Supreme Court Justice Joseph Story.

    In an 1828 speech delivered in Salem, Massachusetts, Story boldly declared his support for religious freedom. He stated: “Religious freedom is the birthright of man; that governments have no authority to inflict punishment for conscientious differences of opinion; and that to worship God according to our own belief is not only our privilege, but is our duty, our absolute duty, from which no human tribunal can absolve us.”

    “Wherever religious liberty exist,” he argued, “it will, first or last, bring in, and establish political liberty.”

    Politics and American democracy

    America is not the same as at the time of the Second Great Awakening. Yet, the role of Christianity in political life is seemingly as alive as ever.

    The steady decline in church attendance has not resulted in a diminished Christian presence in American public life. The public square still contains powerful appeals to Christianity rather than a shared democratic heritage.

    Former president and Republican nominee Donald Trump recently stated, “We have to bring back our religion. We have to bring back Christianity in this country.”

    Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito has commended the religious convictions of citizens, stating, “People with deep religious convictions may be less likely to succumb to dominating ideologies or trends, and more likely to act in accordance with what they see as true and right. Civil society can count on them as engines of reform.”

    A 2023 survey, in which the nonprofit, nonpartisan research and education organization PRRI interviewed more than 22,000 adults, found that approximately 3 in 10 Americans either supported or held Christian nationalist views. Christian nationalists tend “to see political struggles through the apocalyptic lens of revolution and to support political violence.”

    In my opinion, the linkage of Christianity and politics in the United States undermines American democracy. Amanda Tyler, executive director of the Baptist Joint Committee for Religious Liberty, a prominent public voice, explains how Christian nationalism undermines both Christianity and American democracy. In her 2024 book “How to End Christian Nationalism,” Tyler writes, “Christian nationalism is the greatest threat to religious liberty in the U.S. today, as well as a clear and present danger to our constitutional republic.”

    While debates over the Christian virtues of the candidates may be important for Christian communities, religious freedom is important for American democracy. The response to Christianity and politics is not more Christianity but more democracy. And religious freedom is key.

    Corey D. B. Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What America’s history can teach us about debates on religious freedom and its importance for democracy – https://theconversation.com/what-americas-history-can-teach-us-about-debates-on-religious-freedom-and-its-importance-for-democracy-238174

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –