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  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Latvia

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 5, 2024

    Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with the Republic of Latvia and endorsed the staff appraisal on a lapse-of-time basis without a meeting.

    The Latvian economy contracted with significant disinflation. After the post-pandemic recovery, growth contracted by 0.3 percent in 2023, due to tighter financial conditions and weak external demand. Headline inflation declined to 0.0 percent y/y in May 2024. However, core inflation still stood at 3.1 percent in April 2024. The financial sector has so far been resilient although risks are elevated. Fiscal performance in 2023 was stronger than expected, reflecting revenue buoyancy linked to inflation and expenditure under-execution. The current account deficit narrowed to 4 percent of GDP in 2023 from 4.8 percent in 2022, due to import contraction and lower energy prices. Russia’s war in Ukraine and the related geoeconomic fragmentation are adding to structural challenges amid multiple transitions, notably, climate change and energy, and aging and labor shortages. The economic consequences of Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to depress private investment and productivity, thus compromising further Latvia’s lagging income convergence.

    Amid high uncertainty, the outlook is for higher growth and the balance of risks is tilted to the downside. Real GDP growth is projected to increase to 1.7 and 2.4 percent in 2024 and 2025, respectively, underpinned by a recovery in private consumption, higher public investment, and stronger external demand. Growth in the medium-term is projected to continue at an average of around 2.5 percent, supported by public investment and reforms. Inflation is expected to continue to moderate. Headline inflation (annual average) is projected to decline to 2.0 percent in 2024. Meanwhile, core inflation (annual average) is projected to slow to 3.3 percent in 2024, reflecting persistent services inflation. Downside risks dominate, including risk to competitiveness associated with recent high wage growth, rising geopolitical tensions and deeper geoeconomic fragmentation, and weaker external demand.

    Executive Board Assessment[2]

    Latvia’s economy has encountered severe headwinds. The Latvian economy contracted with significant disinflation against the backdrop of geopolitical headwinds. Notably, Russia’s war in Ukraine and the related geoeconomic fragmentation are adding to long-standing challenges to productivity, investment, and labor supply, amid multiple transitions around climate change and energy, aging and labor shortages, and rising defense costs.

    Amid high uncertainty, growth is projected to rebound, but risks are tilted to the downside. Real GDP growth is projected to increase in 2024 and 2025, largely driven by a rebound in private consumption, higher public investment, and stronger external demand. The main risks stem from rising geopolitical tensions and deeper geoeconomic fragmentation, credit risks related to variable-rate loans, and weaker-than-expected external demand. Risks to competitiveness can also arise given recent high wage growth. Over the medium-term, delays in public investment and structural reforms could weigh on potential growth.

    Considering the improving outlook, staff recommends a less expansionary, neutral fiscal stance for 2024 and a tighter fiscal stance in 2025. Proactively identifying spending efficiency and better targeting social support, while protecting the most vulnerable, would help. Staff commends the authorities for the targeting of energy support measures. In 2025, the fiscal stance should be tighter to build buffers for future spending needs. Policy options to achieve this include reducing tax exemptions, raising revenue from property taxation, strengthening tax enforcement, and improving investment spending efficiency. Fiscal policy should remain flexible and evolve if risks materialize.

    Although Latvia has some fiscal space, structural fiscal measures are needed to provide buffers for medium to long term spending pressures. Over the medium term, options for fiscal consolidation include (i) broadening the bases of corporate income tax (CIT) and personal income tax (PIT), including by reducing the shadow economy; (ii) broadening the base of property taxes; (iii) reducing tax exemptions and fossil fuel subsidies, and (iv) rationalizing spending on goods and services. Given this scaling-up of public investment amid high uncertainty and cost overrun, enhanced public investment management is warranted to mitigate fiscal risks. The mission welcomes the healthcare reform aimed to generate efficiency gains, while mitigating risks and supporting solidarity. Staff also welcomes the government’s pension reform efforts and recommends linking the retirement age to life expectancy. Latvia should swiftly implement the NRRP. 

    Although the financial sector has so far been resilient, continued monitoring of macrofinancial vulnerabilities and spillovers is warranted. The banking sector remained well capitalized and liquid, with a low NPL ratio. However, given heightened risks, continued monitoring of financial sector vulnerabilities is important. Notably, regular risk-based monitoring of banks’ asset quality and liquidity should continue, supported by tailored stress tests. Any households’ financial distress related to variable-interest-rate mortgage loans should be addressed through the consumer bankruptcy framework, supplemented by the social protection system for the most vulnerable. The new untargeted interest subsidy scheme for variable-interest-rate mortgages should not be renewed at its expiration in 2024. The authorities should refrain from further initiatives to increase taxation on bank profits given their adverse impact on bank capital and financial stability. Staff welcomes the continued efforts to mitigate cybersecurity risk.

    While the current macroprudential policy stance is broadly appropriate, the recent adjustment to the borrower-based measures for energy-efficient housing loans should be reconsidered. The overall policy stance strikes the right balance between maintaining financial stability and the need to extend credit to the economy. However, borrower-based macroprudential measures should be relaxed only when their presence is overly stringent from the financial stability perspective.

    Latvia has made significant progress in strengthening its AML/CFT frameworks and governance reforms. Staff commends the authorities’ effort to pursue AML/CFT reforms and supports the authorities’ priorities to prepare for the 6th round of MONEYVAL evaluation. Staff welcomes the authorities’ reforms to digitalize the procurement system and the continued implementation of Latvia’s anti-corruption plan and national strategy.

    Structural reforms should be accelerated to enhance productivity and resilience. Accelerating corporate reforms could boost investment and productivity by improving capital allocation and access to finance. Given the aging population and skill mismatch, Latvia should continue to address reforms to boost high-skilled labor supply which will enhance investment in productivity. Efforts should focus on promoting training and internal labor mobility toward priority sectors (green and transition, digitalization, health). Further streamlining product and service markets regulations could boost competition, innovation, and productivity. Staff welcomes the ongoing overhaul of the administrative procedures and their digitalization. Implementing measures to promote digital transformation of the economy could help reduce labor shortages and support productivity. Regarding the green and energy transition, more vigorous climate policy is needed. Staff encourages the authorities to expedite the adoption of the climate law and the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). The authorities should aim to achieve a robust balance between fiscal support, carbon pricing or taxation, and norms while addressing distributional concerns. Staff welcomes the ongoing work on climate adaptation. Latvia should continue to enhance energy security, and boost investment in clean energy and connection.

    Table 1. Latvia: Selected Economic Indicators, 2019–25

     

    2019

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025
               

    Proj.

    National Accounts

        (Percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)

    Real GDP

    0.6

    -3.5

    6.7

    3.0

    -0.3

    1.7

    2.4

    Private consumption

    0.0

    -4.3

    7.3

    7.2

    -1.3

    2.4

    2.3

    Public consumption

    5.6

    2.1

    3.5

    2.8

    7.0

    2.3

    2.2

    Gross capital formation

    0.7

    -10.0

    24.9

    -3.6

    5.1

    2.6

    2.7

    Gross fixed capital formation

    1.5

    -2.2

    7.2

    0.6

    8.2

    3.1

    3.1

    Exports of goods and services

    1.3

    0.4

    9.0

    10.3

    -5.9

    3.0

    2.6

    Imports of goods and services

    2.2

    -1.1

    15.1

    11.1

    -2.8

    3.0

    2.5

    Nominal GDP (billions of euros)

    30.6

    30.1

    33.3

    38.4

    40.3

    42.4

    44.8

    GDP per capita (thousands of euros)

    15.9

    15.8

    17.6

    20.5

    21.4

    22.5

    23.9

    Savings and Investment

    		              

    Gross national saving (percent of GDP)

    22.2

    24.3

    21.1

    20.3

    19.0

    19.1

    18.9

    Gross capital formation (percent of GDP)

    22.8

    21.4

    25.0

    25.0

    23.0

    22.8

    22.5

    Private (percent of GDP)

    18.9

    17.2

    21.2

    21.7

    19.4

    18.7

    18.6

    HICP Inflation

    		              

    Headline, period average

    2.7

    0.1

    3.2

    17.2

    9.1

    2.0

    2.4

    Headline, end-period

    2.1

    -0.5

    7.9

    20.7

    0.9

    3.9

    1.6

    Core, period average

    2.7

    1.1

    2.0

    11.3

    9.8

    3.3

    3.1

    Core, end-period

    1.9

    0.9

    4.7

    15.2

    4.0

    3.7

    2.8

    Labor Market

    		              

    Unemployment rate (LFS; period average, percent)

    6.3

    8.1

    7.6

    6.9

    6.5

    6.5

    6.5

    Nominal wage growth

    7.2

    6.2

    11.7

    7.5

    11.9

    8.5

    7.0

    Consolidated General Government 1/

    (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

    Total revenue

    37.3

    37.7

    37.6

    37.2

    38.5

    38.6

    38.7

    Total expenditure

    37.7

    41.4

    43.2

    40.9

    42.0

    42.0

    41.4

    Basic fiscal balance

    -0.4

    -3.7

    -5.5

    -3.7

    -3.5

    -3.4

    -2.7

    ESA fiscal balance

    -0.5

    -4.4

    -7.2

    -4.6

    -2.2

    -2.9

    -2.7

    General government gross debt

    36.7

    42.7

    44.4

    41.8

    43.6

    44.7

    44.8

    Money and Credit

    Credit to private sector (annual percentage change)

    -2.3

    -4.4

    11.9

    7.1

    5.1

    …

    …

    Broad money (annual percentage change)

    8.0

    13.1

    9.2

    5.1

    2.7

    …

    …

    Balance of Payments

    		              

    Current account balance

    -0.6

    2.9

    -3.9

    -4.8

    -4.0

    -3.7

    -3.5

    Trade balance (goods)

    -8.6

    -5.1

    -8.3

    -10.7

    -9.3

    -8.8

    -8.8

    Gross external debt

    117.1

    122.1

    110.5

    102.3

    98.5

    94.9

    86.6

    Net external debt 2/

    18.1

    13.6

    10.3

    8.1

    7.5

    10.7

    13.5

    Exchange Rates

    		              

    U.S. dollar per euro (period average)

    1.12

    1.14

    1.18

    1.05

    1.08

    …

    …

    REER (period average; CPI based, 2005=100)

    123.0

    124.5

    125.0

    129.7

    136.8

    …

    …

    Terms of trade (annual percentage change)

    0.9

    1.8

    -1.6

    -0.6

    3.6

    -0.1

    0.9

    Sources: Latvian authorities; Eurostat; and IMF staff calculations.

    1/ National definition. Includes economy-wide EU grants in revenue and expenditure.

    2/ Gross external debt minus gross external assets.

    [1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

    [2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Boris Balabanov

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/05/pr-24319-latvia-imf-executive-board-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Moscow Metro – Second phase of Russia’s first driverless tram launch – now with passengers

    Source: Moscow Metro

    The Moscow Metro announced the start of the second phase of launching the first driverless tram in Russia as the first stage was successfully completed. Now the driverless tram runs with passengers in test mode.

    Context

    In 2023, the Moscow Metro established a Driverless Transport Research and Development Center, bringing together top developers and mathematicians from leading IT companies such as Nvidia, Huawei, Siemens, and Yandex.

    The Center’s innovative driverless tram technology is designed around the Lvyonok-Moskva tram model, which is equipped with the latest driverless driving equipment, including four lidars, six cameras, and three radars.

    The software, based on artificial intelligence technology, was developed in-house by the Moscow Government, making it a unique European innovation that outperforms foreign counterparts in terms of precision and reliability.

    The launch of Russia’s first driverless tram comprises three stages.

    First stage highlights

    The first stage, which took place from May 23 to August 29, 2024, focused on testing the driverless tram without passengers. A driver and a system that duplicated the driver’s actions were onboard, where the system facilitated the tram’s movement, but the driver made the final decisions.

    During this phase, the driverless tram covered more than 800 kilometers on route No. 10, from Schukinskaya metro station to Kulakova Street. Numerous tests were conducted to verify the reliability of the systems in:

    • Maintaining a set speed and navigating curvilinear sections
    • Passing through track switches
    • Detecting various obstacles
    • Stopping at designated points
    • Performing emergency braking

    The first stage concluded successfully, with no traffic violations recorded. All systems were thoroughly checked, confirming that both the tram and its software were fully prepared for passenger travel.

    Second stage plans

    In the second stage, the driverless system will take full control, including opening and closing doors. A driver will be present in the cab to oversee and ensure the tram’s actions. An onboard screen will display key performance indicators of various systems for monitoring and transparency. The trips on the route No. 10 will be performed both with and without passengers.

    Looking forward

    By the final stage, expected to be completed by the end of 2025, the tram is set to operate autonomously with passengers and without a driver at the controls. A specialist may be present in the cab or the passenger area to visually monitor the tram’s operations and perform other necessary functions.

    This groundbreaking project signifies a major step forward in driverless vehicle technology, not just for Russia but for Europe as a whole, setting new standards for reliability and innovation in public transportation.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Togo

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 6, 2024

    Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with Togo.

    Following a series of shocks in recent years, Togo continues to face headwinds, including persistent challenges of food security and terrorist attacks, while broader development needs remain acute. Fiscal expansion implemented in response to the shocks has helped preserve robust economic growth but has also pushed up public debt, reversing the debt reduction achieved during the 2017–20 ECF-arrangement, eroding fiscal space and buffers to absorb shocks, and contributing to regional vulnerabilities in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). In response to these challenges, in March 2024, the International Monetary Fund approved the authorities’ request for a new arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility.

    Against a background of a substantial strengthening of fiscal revenue and a beginning of fiscal consolidation in 2023, the macroeconomic outlook is broadly favorable. Growth is expected to remain robust, while fiscal revenue is expected to rise further. There are no substantial domestic or external disequilibria, with low inflation and a well-contained current account deficit.

    The outlook is however subject to elevated risks, including from a potential intensification of terrorism, potential difficulties in securing affordable regional financing, and banking sector challenges. In the longer run, economic performance is also subject to the risk of weakening debt sustainability should efforts to achieve sufficient fiscal consolidation while maintaining robust growth disappoint.

    The 2024 Article IV consultation focused on how the Togolese authorities can best (i) anchor macroeconomic stability by ensuring fiscal consolidation to enhance debt sustainability, (ii) conduct structural reforms to lay the basis for sustained growth, and (iii) strengthen social inclusion to accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals and support medium-term growth prospects.  

    Executive Board Assessment[2]

    Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They commended the authorities’ policies, which enabled Togo to weather the series of shocks of recent years relatively well, with continued growth and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. However, significant challenges remain, including from the sharp increase in the debt burden in recent years and terrorist attacks at the northern border, while development needs remain acute. Against this background, Directors encouraged the authorities to maintain full commitment to the recently approved ECF arrangement with the Fund and continue their efforts to strengthen debt sustainability and implement reforms to boost inclusive growth and reduce poverty. These efforts should be well communicated to ensure social cohesion and supported by the Fund’s capacity development.

    Directors underscored the importance of continued growth‑friendly fiscal consolidation, guided by the dual fiscal anchor adopted under the ECF, to ensure debt sustainability and create fiscal buffers. They welcomed the recent large increase in fiscal revenue and called for further measures, comprising tax policy and revenue administration elements. Such measures could be considered as a part of an overarching fiscal strategy that considers taxation and spending together to help reach both efficiency and income distribution goals. In that context, creating space for priority spending, particularly on health and education, will be imperative to promote social inclusion while expanding cash transfers could further improve the social safety nets. The authorities should also continue to strengthen public financial management, including the oversight of state‑owned enterprises.

    Directors noted that to boost growth it will be important to strengthen the business environment, accelerate productivity gains, and attract more private investment. Strengthening of the governance and anti‑corruption frameworks will be key. In this regard, they encouraged the authorities to request an IMF governance diagnostic assessment. Directors noted the dynamic economic activity at the special economic zone while encouraging cautious implementation of industrial policies, considering their cost and benefits. The authorities should also continue addressing the existing financial sector vulnerabilities and increasing the capacity of banks to provide credit to the private sector. Improving access to infrastructure and utilities and building climate resilience, potentially with support by an RSF arrangement, remains key. Further enhancing data provision to the Fund is also important.

    It is expected that the next Article IV Consultation with Togo will be held in accordance with the Executive Board decision on consultation cycles for members with Fund arrangements.

    Table 1. Togo: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2020–29

     

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    2026

    2027

    2028

    2029

    Estimates

    Projections

    (Percentage change, unless otherwise indicated)

    Real GDP

    2.0

    6.0

    5.8

    5.6

    5.3

    5.3

    5.5

    5.5

    5.5

    5.5

    Real GDP per capita

    -0.4

    3.5

    3.3

    3.1

    2.8

    2.8

    3.0

    3.0

    3.0

    3.0

    GDP deflator

    1.8

    2.5

    3.7

    2.9

    2.2

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    Consumer price index (average)

    1.8

    4.5

    7.6

    5.3

    2.7

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    GDP (CFAF billions)

    4,253

    4,621

    5,069

    5,507

    5,927

    6,366

    6,850

    7,371

    7,932

    8,536

    Exchange rate CFAF/US$ (annual average level)

    575

    554

    622

    606

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    Real effective exchange rate (appreciation = –)

    -2.0

    -1.4

    2.3

    -5.4

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    Terms of trade (deterioration = –)

    -1.3

    6.5

    -0.1

    4.4

    -2.7

    -2.5

    0.4

    1.1

    1.0

    0.7

    Monetary survey

     (Percentage change of beginning-of-period broad money)

    Net foreign assets

    14.1

    5.6

    -0.6

    6.2

    2.7

    2.4

    3.0

    2.8

    2.2

    2.2

    Net credit to government

    -1.6

    -0.3

    8.0

    0.2

    -2.9

    1.0

    1.2

    2.0

    0.2

    0.2

    Credit to nongovernment sector

    0.2

    6.0

    10.7

    1.5

    9.4

    4.0

    4.4

    4.6

    4.8

    4.8

    Broad money (M2)

    11.4

    12.3

    14.9

    8.5

    8.8

    7.4

    7.6

    7.6

    7.6

    7.6

    Velocity (GDP/end-of-period M2)

    2.1

    2.1

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    2.0

    Investment and savings

    (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

    Gross domestic investment

    21.4

    23.4

    25.9

    28.0

    26.0

    24.4

    25.0

    25.8

    26.7

    27.2

    Government

    9.3

    8.2

    9.7

    11.5

    9.3

    7.3

    7.7

    8.3

    8.9

    9.4

    Nongovernment

    12.1

    15.2

    16.2

    16.5

    16.7

    17.1

    17.3

    17.5

    17.8

    17.8

    Gross national savings

    21.1

    21.2

    22.5

    25.1

    22.7

    21.0

    21.9

    23.3

    24.4

    24.9

    Government

    2.2

    3.6

    1.4

    4.8

    4.4

    4.3

    4.7

    5.3

    5.9

    6.4

    Nongovernment

    18.9

    17.6

    21.0

    20.3

    18.3

    16.8

    17.2

    18.0

    18.5

    18.5

    Government budget

    Total revenue and grants

    16.6

    17.1

    17.6

    19.8

    19.0

    18.8

    19.2

    19.7

    20.1

    20.5

    Revenue

    14.1

    15.3

    15.1

    16.8

    16.9

    17.3

    17.8

    18.3

    18.7

    19.3

    Tax revenue

    12.5

    14.0

    13.9

    14.8

    15.2

    15.7

    16.2

    16.7

    17.2

    17.7

    Expenditure and net lending (excl. banking sector operation)

    23.7

    21.8

    26.0

    26.6

    23.9

    21.8

    22.2

    22.7

    23.1

    23.5

    Overall primary balance (commitment basis, incl. grants)

    -4.7

    -2.5

    -5.9

    -3.9

    -4.0

    -0.5

    -0.6

    -0.8

    -1.0

    -1.1

    Overall balance (commitment basis, incl. grants, excl. banking sector operations)

    -7.0

    -4.7

    -8.3

    -6.7

    -4.9

    -3.0

    -3.0

    -3.0

    -3.0

    -3.0

    Overall balance (commitment basis, incl. grants)

    -7.0

    -4.7

    -8.3

    -6.7

    -6.4

    -3.0

    -3.0

    -3.0

    -3.0

    -3.0

    Overall primary balance (cash basis, incl. grants)

    -4.7

    -3.4

    -5.9

    -3.9

    -4.0

    -0.5

    -0.6

    -0.8

    -1.0

    -1.1

    Overall balance (cash basis, incl. grants, excl. banking sector operations)

    -7.1

    -5.6

    -8.3

    -6.7

    -4.9

    -3.0

    -3.0

    -3.0

    -3.0

    -3.0

    Overall balance (cash basis, incl. grants)

    -7.1

    -5.6

    -8.3

    -6.7

    -6.4

    -3.0

    -3.0

    -3.0

    -3.0

    -3.0

    External sector

    Current account balance

    -0.3

    -2.2

    -3.5

    -2.9

    -3.3

    -3.3

    -3.1

    -2.5

    -2.3

    -2.3

    Exports (goods and services)

    23.3

    23.7

    26.6

    25.5

    25.6

    25.5

    26.1

    26.3

    26.3

    26.2

    Imports (goods and services)

    -32.3

    -34.0

    -38.8

    -36.2

    -35.7

    -34.8

    -34.4

    -34.2

    -34.0

    -34.0

    External public debt1

    27.6

    27.3

    26.2

    25.9

    27.4

    28.7

    29.6

    30.4

    30.6

    30.2

    External public debt service (percent of exports)1

    6.9

    5.2

    8.3

    8.2

    8.4

    9.1

    9.1

    8.2

    7.2

    6.5

    Domestic public debt2

    34.6

    37.6

    41.2

    42.1

    42.4

    39.8

    36.9

    34.6

    32.8

    31.8

    Total public debt3

    62.2

    64.9

    67.4

    68.0

    69.8

    68.6

    66.5

    65.0

    63.4

    62.0

    Total public debt (excluding SOEs)4

    60.1

    63.0

    65.8

    66.6

    68.6

    67.6

    65.7

    64.3

    62.8

    61.5

    Present value of total public debt3

    …

    …

    …

    60.5

    61.0

    58.3

    54.7

    51.8

    49.1

    47.4

    Sources: Togolese authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections.

    1 Includes state-owned enterprise external debt.

    2 Includes domestic arrears and state-owned enterprise domestic debt.

    3 Includes domestic arrears and state-owned enterprise debt.

    4 Includes domestic arrears.

    [1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. (Article IV consultations with countries benefitting from Fund financial arrangements are held every other year.) A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.  

    [2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Tatiana Mossot

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/06/pr24320-togo-imf-exec-board-concludes-2024-aiv-consult

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Moscow Metro: new Potapovo station opens on Moscow’s oldest Line 1

    Source: Moscow Metro

    On September 5, the Mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin, inaugurated a new station on Line 1, named Potapovo. This station marks the ninth metro stop within the New Moscow area, aiming to enhance commuting convenience.

    The station’s standout features include being the first heated above-ground metro station and boasting a futuristic design. The introduction of Potapovo station brings several benefits to the area.

    Key advantages include:

    • Accelerated travel to various social facilities, educational institutions, and the Big Circle Line. For example, travel to the Prospect Vernadskogo station on the Big Circle Line is now 2.5 times faster.
    • Daily travel time savings of up to 40 minutes for passengers.
    • Improved accessibility for nearby residential complexes, affecting 50,000 Muscovites who now have a metro within walking distance.
    • Up to a 25% reduction in congestion at the Buninskaya Alleya, Tepliy Stan, and Novomoskovskaya stations.
    • A 10% decrease in traffic on Kaluzhskoe Highway.

    With the opening of Potapovo, over 200,000 residents of Kommunarka and surrounding areas now have access to new convenient routes. By 2030, the TiNAO (New Moscow) area is expected to have 27 rail transit stations, including MCD. This development follows Mayor Sobyanin’s efforts to enhance TiNAO’s transport infrastructure, – said Deputy Mayor for Transport Maksim Liksutov.

    The city’s first heated above-ground station is located along the Solntsevo-Butovo-Varshavskoe highway corridor, near the intersection with Alexandra Monakhova Street.

    The last decade has been transformative for Line 1, the oldest in the Moscow Metro, inaugurated in 1935. While it had only 19 stations before 2014, it now comprises 27 active stations. The extension of the so-called red line into new city territories stands as a significant milestone in Moscow’s metro development program.

    Looking ahead, the introduction of the new Stolbovo electric depot is planned, which is expected to double the train frequency on the southern radius of the line.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Concludes the 2024 Article IV Consultation with Uganda

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 9, 2024

    • Uganda has navigated the post pandemic recovery well due to sound macroeconomic policies. The economic recovery is strengthening with low inflation, favorable agricultural production, and strong industrial and services activity.
    • Uganda should continue its efforts to create fiscal space through revenue mobilization and better expenditure discipline, vigilant monetary policy, and exchange rate flexibility, using future oil revenue to address growth impediments and improve social development while advancing governance reform and financial inclusion.

    Washington DC: On September 6, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2024 Article IV Consultation[1] with Uganda.

    Uganda has navigated the post-pandemic recovery well due to sound macroeconomic policies. The economic recovery is strengthening with low inflation, favorable agricultural production, and strong industrial and services activity. Growth is estimated at 6 percent in FY23/24, up from 5.3 percent in FY22/23. Headline inflation has increased to 3.9 percent by June 2024, driven by rising energy prices and core inflation, though the latter remains below the Bank of Uganda’s (BoU) target of 5 percent.

    Elevated current account deficit and limited capital inflows have weighed on Uganda’s international reserves. Despite strong coffee and gold exports, the current deficit remains high due to rising oil project-related imports. Tight global financial conditions and reduced external project and budget support have driven down gross international reserves, covering only 2.9 months of imports at the end of 2024 (excluding oil-project related imports).

    The overall fiscal deficit continued to decline in FY23/24 but was less than planned due to revenue underperformance and higher current spending, while development spending fell short of expectations, worsening expenditure composition.

    Looking ahead, growth is expected to strengthen, boosted by the start of oil production, which will make lasting improvement in the fiscal and current account balances. Inflation is expected to rise near the BoU’s target of 5 percent in FY24/25. Risks are mostly on the downside, including continued fallout from the Anti-Homosexuality Act, which complicates the already tight external financing conditions, potential delays in oil production, and climate-related shocks. Upside risks to inflation come from commodity price volatility, weather conditions, and exchange rate depreciation pressures stemming from limited capital inflows.

    The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Uganda:

    “Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed Uganda’s robust post‑pandemic recovery underpinned by sound macroeconomic policies and the favorable medium‑term outlook due to the anticipated start of oil production. At the same time, they noted pressures on international reserves amid tight global financial conditions, as well as the elevated debt servicing costs accompanied by a shortfall in the country’s development spending. Directors also highlighted the significant downside risks, including from the continued fallout from the “Anti‑Homosexuality Act”, which could exacerbate already tight external financing conditions, potential delays in oil production, sluggish reform implementation, and climate‑related shocks. Against this background, they encouraged continued reforms, including those envisaged under the expired ECF arrangement, to rebuild fiscal and external buffers and boost inclusive and sustainable growth, supported by technical assistance from the Fund and other partners as needed.

    “Directors encouraged strong efforts to create durable fiscal space, emphasizing the need to address significant spending demands in human capital, infrastructure, and climate resilience. They recommended continued revenue‑based fiscal consolidation, improved expenditure discipline, and a prudent fiscal management framework to ensure effective use of oil revenues once production begins.

    “Directors commended the Bank of Uganda’s commitment to price stability and agreed with its tight monetary policy stance to anchor inflation expectations. They advised keeping monetary policy data dependent and emphasized the importance of continued exchange rate flexibility to help build up buffers and improve competitiveness. Directors called for continued efforts to enhance monetary transmission and central bank independence, including through full implementation of the 2021 Safeguards Assessment recommendations.

    “While recognizing the resilience of Uganda’s financial system, Directors called for vigilant monitoring of the rapid increase in the sovereign‑bank nexus and significant cross‑border exposure of the nonfinancial corporate sector, alongside multifaceted efforts to enhance financial inclusion.

    “Directors stressed that accelerating structural reforms is crucial for achieving inclusive, sustainable, and private sector‑led growth. They supported further efforts to strengthen enforcement of the anti‑corruption framework, address remaining shortcomings in AML/CFT, enhance fiscal transparency, introduce regulatory reforms to support businesses, and implement an ambitious climate resilience agenda drawing on the recommendations of the C‑PIMA.

    The next Article IV consultation with Uganda will be held on the standard 12‑month cycle.”

    [1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Tatiana Mossot

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/09/pr24322-Uganda-imf-exec-board-concludes-2024-aiv-consult

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: The building of the S.V. Obraztsov Puppet Theatre will be decorated with architectural and artistic lighting

    MIL OSI Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Moscow Government – Government of Moscow –

    Specialists from the city services complex will decorate the building of the State Academic Central Puppet Theater named after S.V. Obraztsov, located in the Tverskoy District, with architectural and artistic lighting. This was reported by the Deputy Mayor of Moscow for Housing and Public Utilities and Improvement Petr Biryukov.

    “We have developed a special project for organizing the lighting of the building of the State Academic Central Puppet Theater named after S.V. Obraztsov on Sadovaya-Samotechnaya Street. The main task is to emphasize the architectural features of the building, which was built in the 1970s in the form of an avant-garde cube. The work has already begun and will be completed by the end of this year,” noted Petr Biryukov.

    Power engineers from JSC “OEK” will install more than 130 modern lighting fixtures with energy-efficient lamps on the upper part of the theater’s perimeter. This will highlight the main entrance and windows. In addition, the lighting in the famous clock with doll figures, which is the dominant feature of the facade and is currently under reconstruction, will be restored.

    All lamps have a warm or neutral white shade. Moderate illumination will not only highlight the details and elements of the structure, but also create a single light space in the city.

    Over the past 13 years, the level of illumination in the capital has doubled. The number of buildings equipped with architectural and artistic lighting has increased fourfold. Moscow is illuminated by more than a million lamps, while energy consumption is reduced thanks to the use of energy-efficient LEDs.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    https://vvv.mos.ru/nevs/item/144393073/

    EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and or sentence structure not be perfect.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Dominican Republic

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 10, 2024

    Washington, DC: On September 10, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with the Dominican Republic and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting.[2]

    A track record of sound policies and institutional policy frameworks has helped the Dominican Republic achieve robust and resilient economic growth and low inflation over the last two decades. Effective policies contributed to a growth moderation that appropriately supported inflation’s rapid and sustained return to its target last year and then aided the recovery, while close monitoring of the financial sector supported macro-financial stability. Planned enhancements to policy frameworks and deepening structural reforms—in particular, comprehensive fiscal and electricity reforms—have the potential to further support stability, competitiveness, and inclusive growth.

    Following a strong post-pandemic recovery, economic growth slowed to 2.4 percent in 2023 due to tighter global and domestic financial conditions, weak export demand, and transient domestic factors, largely climate related. The growth slowdown, alongside lower commodity prices, drove inflation’s faster-than-expected convergence to its target range (4±1 percent). In response, the Central Bank of The Dominican Republic (BCRD) cautiously and appropriately reduced its key policy rate, allowing for greater exchange rate flexibility while increasing foreign exchange interventions to smooth daily exchange volatility. Fiscal policy was also prudently adjusted to support the economy. The current account deficit in 2023 narrowed markedly to 3.6 percent of GDP and was fully financed by foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. The financial sector weathered the period of tight monetary policy and slower growth and is adequately capitalized and profitable.

    Supported by sound policies and macroeconomic fundamentals, the outlook is favorable despite elevated, mostly global, uncertainty. For 2024 and over the medium term, real GDP growth is projected around its long-term trend of 5 percent, with inflation around its 4 percent target. The current account deficit is projected to gradually narrow to less than 3 percent of GDP and continue being fully financed by FDI. Near-term risks to the outlook—including tighter global financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and volatile commodity prices—have moderated since last year but remain elevated and tilted to the downside. Over the medium-term risks are more balanced and include upside risks if key domestic reforms are implemented successfully.

    Executive Board Assessment

    In concluding the 2024 Article IV Consultation with the Dominican Republic, Executive Directors endorsed staff’s appraisal, as follows:

    A track record of sound policies and institutional policy frameworks has helped the Dominican Republic achieve robust and resilient economic growth and low inflation over the last two decades. Effective policies contributed to a growth moderation that appropriately supported inflation’s rapid and sustained return to its target in 2023. The authorities provided timely policy support to aid the recovery while monitoring closely the financial sector. The external position improved significantly in 2023 and was broadly in line with fundamentals and desirable policies.

    The outlook is favorable despite elevated—mostly global—uncertainty. Real GDP growth is projected around its long-term trend of 5 percent in 2024 and thereafter, with inflation around its (4±1 percent) target. The current account deficit, expected to be fully financed by FDI, is projected to gradually narrow over the medium term. Downside risks dominate in the near‑term term—including tighter for longer monetary policy in the U.S., intensification of regional conflicts, or extreme local weather events—but are broadly balanced over the medium term, including upside risks if reforms are successfully implemented. Existing buffers, further contingency planning, and agile sound policy making can help face adverse shocks.

    In the near term, policy priorities should remain focused on maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability, including further flexibility of the exchange rate. Monetary policy normalization can continue, given remaining economic slack and that inflation is firmly within the target range. Efforts to expedite the recapitalization of the central bank to reinforce its autonomy should remain a priority. Endeavors should continue to deepen the FX market, expand the use of hedging mechanisms and limit FXIs to large shocks that lead to destabilizing changes in hedging and financing premia to support further exchange rate flexibility, and therefore further enhance the effectiveness of the inflation targeting framework. While international reserves are broadly adequate based on traditional metrics, further reserve accumulation is necessary to increase buffers to deal with future shocks.

    Fiscal policy should remain focused on rebuilding buffers and critical spending needs. The fiscal responsibility law and its planned implementation are welcomed and are important steps to better anchor medium-term policies and further secure debt sustainability. The authorities’ planned gradual fiscal consolidation, consistent with this law, is appropriate to place debt on a firmly downward path and build fiscal buffers. An integral fiscal reform that durably raises revenues—through elimination of tax exemptions and expansion of the tax base—and improves spending efficiency—especially by reducing electricity sector subsidies and untargeted transfers—is imperative. This can provide space for needed development spending (including disaster-resilient infrastructure) to promote inclusive growth.

    The financial sector remains resilient and well capitalized, and efforts to bring the regulatory framework up to the latest international standards should continue. The sector weathered well the period of high interest rates and slower growth in 2023. Stress tests show that the banking sector can absorb a range of shocks. Continued close monitoring to contain any build‑up of vulnerabilities remains warranted amid higher for longer interest rates and past increases to credit growth. The modernization of the financial and prudential regulatory framework, alongside the expansion of the macroprudential toolkit, and closing regulatory/supervisory gaps (including for savings and loans cooperatives) will further increase financial sector resilience.

    Ongoing efforts to improve public institutions and the business climate are essential to maintaining the strong investment and growth trajectory. The fiscal policy framework, and spending and revenue efficiency can be further enhanced by continued improvements to public financial management and further strengthening of revenue administration. Reforms to education and the labor market, alongside further improvements to social outcomes and implementation of climate adaptation and mitigation policies will be critical to support inclusive and resilient growth and continue to reduce vulnerabilities. The authorities should continue in their efforts to fully implement the Electricity Pact.

    Dominican Republic: Selected Economic Indicators

    Population (millions, 2023)                                                     10.7

    GDP per capita (2023, U.S. dollars)                         11,372

    Quota                                     477.4 million SDRs / 0.10% of total

    Poverty (2021, share of population)                            23.9

    Main exports                                             tourism, gold, tobacco

    Unemployment rate (2023, percent)                             5.3

    Key export markets                                          U.S., Canada, Haiti

    Adult literacy rate (percent, 2022)                               95.5

    Projection

    2019

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    Output

    (Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated) 

    Real GDP

    5.1

    -6.7

    12.3

    4.9

    2.4

    5.1

    5.0

    Nominal GDP (RD$ billion)

    4,562

    4,457

    5,393

    6,261

    6,820

    7,453

    8,149

    Nominal GDP (US$ billion)

    89.0

    78.9

    94.5

    113.9

    121.8

    …

    …

    Output gap (in percent of potential output)

    -0.5

    -6.3

    -1.9

    -0.8

    -1.7

    -0.8

    -0.5

    Prices

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Consumer price inflation (end of period)

    3.7

    5.6

    8.5

    7.8

    3.6

    3.7

    4.0

    Exchange Rate

    Exchange rate (RD$/US$ – period average) 1/

    51.2

    56.5

    57.1

    55.0

    56.0

    …

    …

    Exchange rate (RD$/US$ – eop) 1/

    52.9

    58.2

    57.3

    56.2

    58.0

    …

    …

    Real effective exchange rate (eop, – depreciation) 1/

    -3.2

    -8.1

    6.5

    6.3

    -1.9

    -2.9

    0.0

    Government Finances

    (In percent of GDP) 

    Consolidated public sector debt 2/

    53.3

    71.1

    62.2

    58.8

    59.3

    58.4

    57.4

    Consolidated public sector overall balance 2/

    -3.3

    -9.0

    -3.7

    -3.6

    -4.0

    -4.0

    -3.8

    Consolidated public sector primary balance

    0.5

    -4.2

    0.7

    0.0

    0.4

    0.7

    0.7

    NFPS balance

    -2.3

    -7.6

    -2.5

    -2.7

    -3.1

    -3.1

    -3.1

     Central government balance

    -3.5

    -7.9

    -2.9

    -3.2

    -3.3

    -3.1

    -3.1

    Revenues and grants

    14.4

    14.2

    15.6

    15.3

    15.7

    16.3

    15.2

    Primary spending

    15.1

    18.9

    15.4

    15.7

    15.8

    15.9

    14.8

    Interest expenditure

    2.7

    3.2

    3.1

    2.8

    3.1

    3.4

    3.5

    Rest of NFPS

    1.1

    0.3

    0.4

    0.6

    0.2

    0.0

    0.0

    Financial Sector

    (Annual percentage change; unless otherwise stated) 

    Broad money (M3)

    11.7

    21.2

    13.4

    6.3

    14.3

    11.5

    10.7

    Credit to the private sector

    11.8

    5.3

    11.6

    16.6

    19.6

    15.8

    11.5

    Net domestic assets of the banking system

    8.6

    2.5

    11.5

    9.7

    13.1

    13.5

    10.1

    Policy interest rate (in percent) 1/

    4.5

    3.0

    3.5

    8.5

    7.0

    …

    …

        Average bank deposit rate (1-year; in percent) 1/

    6.7

    3.1

    2.3

    9.9

    8.6

    …

    …

        Average bank lending rate (1-year; in percent) 1/

    12.4

    9.9

    9.2

    13.5

    13.6

    …

    …

    Balance of Payments

    (In percent of GDP) 

    Current account

    -1.3

    -1.7

    -2.8

    -5.8

    -3.6

    -3.4

    -3.4

    Goods, net

    -10.2

    -8.6

    -12.5

    -15.1

    -13.0

    -12.9

    -12.7

    Services, net

    5.7

    1.8

    3.9

    4.8

    6.0

    6.6

    6.5

    Income, net

    3.2

    5.2

    5.7

    4.5

    3.5

    2.9

    2.7

    Capital account

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    Financial account 3/

    3.6

    5.3

    5.7

    6.7

    5.1

    3.5

    4.3

    Foreign direct investment, net

    3.4

    3.2

    3.4

    3.6

    3.6

    3.5

    3.5

    Portfolio investment, net

    2.4

    7.1

    2.2

    2.9

    2.0

    1.5

    1.3

    Financial derivatives, net

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    Other investment, net

    -2.3

    -5.1

    0.1

    0.2

    -0.5

    -1.5

    -0.5

    Change in reserves (-increase)

    -1.3

    -2.5

    -2.4

    -1.3

    -0.9

    -0.2

    -0.9

    GIR (in millions of US dollars)

    8,782

    10,752

    12,943

    14,441

    15,464

    15,660

    16,883

    Total external debt (in percent of GDP)

    41.9

    56.3

    48.6

    40.5

    43.3

    43.5

    42.5

     of which: Consolidated public sector

    27.3

    40.3

    35.6

    33.2

    33.9

    32.9

    32.2

     

    Sources: National authorities; World Bank; and IMF staff calculations.

    1/ Latest available.

    2/ The consolidated public sector includes the budgetary central government (CG); the rest of the Non-Financial Public Sector, i.e., extra-budgetary central government institutions (decentralized and autonomous institutions), social security funds, local governments and non-financial public companies; and the quasi-fiscal central bank debt. With the dissolution of the state electricity holding company (CDEEE) in 2022, the deficit of CDEEE from 2019 was transferred to the CG.

    3/ Excluding reserves. 

    [1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

    [2] The Executive Board takes decisions under its lapse-of-time procedure when the Board agrees that a proposal can be considered without convening formal discussions.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Meera Louis

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/10/pr24323-dominican-republic-imf-exec-board-concludes-2024-aiv-consult

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Botswana

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 10, 2024

    • Botswana’s economic growth is expected to slow to 1 percent in 2024 primarily because of a diamond market contraction, before picking up next year. Inflation has declined sharply since the peak of mid-2022 and returned to the central bank’s medium-term objective range of 3–6 percent, where it is expected to remain in the medium term.
    • The government plans a fiscal expansion in FY2024 followed by two years of substantial fiscal adjustment. Public debt is low (20 percent of GDP), but government deposits at the central bank have significantly reduced over the past decade.
    • The financial sector is sound, stable, and resilient.

    Washington, DC: On August 28, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with Botswana and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.[2]

    Botswana’s economic growth decelerated from 5.5 percent in 2022 to 2.7 percent in 2023, below the long-run potential growth of 4 percent. A sharp decline in diamond trading and mining activities was the main contributor to the slowdown, as global demand for rough diamonds decreased. Inflation has remained below the ceiling of the central bank’s medium-term objective range since July 2023. Despite lower diamond exports, FX reserves increased in 2023 supported by higher customs union receipts. The financial sector is broadly sound, stable, and resilient.

    Botswana’s economy is expected to decelerate further this year, with growth projected at
    1 percent. The continued slowdown is mainly due to a fall in diamond production, partly offset by construction projects financed by the fiscal expansion. Growth is forecast to rebound – averaging 5 percent over the next two years – due to higher prices and quantities of diamonds produced. Inflation is projected to remain within the central bank’s objective range of
    3–6 percent.

    The fiscal deficit is projected to widen further to 6 percent of GDP in FY2024, reflecting a further decline in mineral revenues and higher capital expenditure. The government plans a substantial fiscal adjustment in the following two years to reach a fiscal surplus. The external position should soften over the medium term (with FX reserves decreasing to 5 months of imports) due to weak growth in customs revenues and higher government foreign debt repayments. Risks to the outlook remain elevated due to the emergence of cheaper lab-grown diamonds, and uncertainty over the recovery of major export markets.

    Executive Board Assessment

    In concluding the 2024 Article IV consultation with Botswana, Executive Directors endorsed staff’s appraisal, as follows:

    Botswana is facing a severe slowdown from a diamond market contraction in 2023 and 2024. Growth is expected to fall to 1.0 percent this year, from 2.7 percent in 2023 and 5.5 percent in 2022. This reflects weaker global demand for diamonds and a sharp increase in inventories.

    Real GDP growth should rebound next year, although risks to the outlook remain elevated. A strong recovery is projected in 2025, driven by the rebound in diamond production and trade. But the economic outlook is highly uncertain, with the emergence of cheaper lab-grown diamonds, and the announced sale of De Beers by its UK parent company.

    In the near term, the fall in diamond revenues could be accommodated by a mix of higher fiscal deficit and reprioritization of capital expenditure. Some fiscal relaxation is warranted in light of the widening of the output gap, but staff encourages the authorities to reprioritize capital projects to limit the increase in the deficit and ensure that they achieve the highest value for money.

    Over the medium term, the authorities’ planned fiscal consolidation is critical to put a stop to the depletion of government’s financial buffers, build resilience against shocks, and preserve fiscal sustainability. Staff assesses that targeting a 1 percent of GDP fiscal surplus would generate sufficient savings to protect the budget against major economic shocks. While the authorities’ adjustment plan focuses mostly on expenditure restraint, there is also scope to increase revenues. The medium-term adjustment should be supported by institutional reforms, including a fiscal rule, more credible medium-term budgeting, and possibly a well-designed SWF.

    The monetary policy stance is appropriate. Inflation has declined since August 2022 and is projected to remain within the central bank’s objective range in the medium term. Underlying pressures, as measured by core inflation indicators, seem contained, while inflation expectations are well anchored. The 2023 external position is assessed to be broadly in line with fundamentals and desirable policies.

    The authorities’ plans to strengthen financial sector oversight, deepening, and inclusion are welcomed. The financial sector is broadly sound and stable despite the economic slowdown. Faster implementation of the 2023 FSAP recommendations will further reduce financial risks. These include moving to implement Basel III liquidity standards, enhancing risk-based supervision of banks, reinforcing the crisis management framework (ELA, bank resolution), and deploying macroprudential tools to address household debt risk.

    Accelerating growth and job creation requires a fundamental shift towards greater private sector participation, a more diversified export base, and a more efficient public sector. The authorities should prioritize SOE modernization, improved infrastructure for doing business (internet, energy, logistics), trade facilitation measures, more efficient social protection, and financial inclusion reforms that support small entrepreneurs. These goals could be enshrined in the new NDP, supported by time-bound and well-prioritized action plans.

    Botswana: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2020-20291
     

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    2026

    2027

    2028

    2029
     

    Projection

    (Annual percent change, unless otherwise indicated)

    National Income and Prices

    		                    

    Real GDP

    -8.7

    11.9

    5.5

    2.7

    1.0

    5.2

    4.8

    4.0

    4.0

    4.0

    Nonmineral

    -3.5

    7.9

    4.9

    2.6

    5.1

    4.1

    4.4

    4.4

    4.4

    4.5

    GDP per capita (US dollars)

    5,863

    7,244

    7,726

    7,250

    7,341

    8,003

    8,602

    9,146

    9,726

    10,437

    GNI per capita (US dollars)2

    5,872

    7,174

    7,220

    6,963

    7,150

    7,733

    8,290

    8,798

    9,344

    10,027

        Consumer prices (average)

    1.9

    6.7

    12.2

    5.1

    3.8

    4.5

    4.5

    4.5

    4.5

    4.5

    Diamond production (millions of carats)

    16.9

    22.7

    24.5

    25.1

    21.1

    23.3

    25.0

    25.5

    26.0

    26.4

    Money and Banking

    		                    

    Monetary Base

    -3.8

    -8.8

    -5.3

    33.1

    8.7

    9.7

    9.3

    9.2

    9.3

    9.3

    Broad money (M2)

    5.9

    5.0

    6.8

    9.3

    8.7

    9.7

    9.3

    9.2

    9.3

    9.3

    Credit to the private sector

    5.3

    5.4

    4.7

    5.6

    8.5

    11.0

    11.0

    11.0

    11.0

    11.0

    (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

    Investment and Savings

    		                    

    Gross investment (including change in inventories)

    32.8

    27.4

    25.0

    30.3

    35.4

    34.1

    35.0

    35.5

    36.7

    37.5

    Public

    6.5

    5.5

    5.4

    7.1

    8.4

    7.0

    6.2

    6.0

    5.5

    5.2

    Private

    26.3

    21.9

    19.6

    23.2

    26.9

    27.1

    28.8

    29.5

    31.2

    32.3

    Gross savings

    26.6

    28.1

    24.9

    29.9

    33.4

    35.6

    36.2

    36.8

    37.3

    37.7

    Public

    -4.3

    0.7

    4.0

    3.0

    2.4

    4.2

    5.4

    6.1

    5.9

    5.5

    Private

    30.8

    27.5

    20.8

    26.9

    31.0

    31.4

    30.9

    30.7

    31.4

    32.2

    Central Government Finances3

    		                    

    Total revenue and grants

    25.6

    29.0

    29.1

    28.4

    28.2

    28.8

    28.6

    28.8

    27.6

    26.7

    SACU receipts

    9.1

    6.5

    5.5

    9.1

    9.6

    7.0

    6.4

    6.6

    6.3

    5.9

    Mineral revenue

    5.3

    10.6

    13.3

    7.4

    5.8

    9.5

    9.9

    9.8

    8.9

    8.4

    Total expenditure and net lending

    36.5

    31.4

    29.1

    33.1

    34.2

    30.6

    29.1

    28.3

    27.1

    26.2

    Overall balance (deficit –)

    -10.9

    -2.4

    0.0

    -4.7

    -6.0

    -1.7

    -0.5

    0.5

    0.5

    0.5

    Non-mineral non-SACU balance4

    -25.3

    -19.5

    -18.8

    -21.3

    -21.3

    -18.2

    -16.7

    -15.9

    -14.7

    -13.8

    Net Debt

    15.3

    12.8

    12.6

    16.9

    22.2

    21.6

    20.2

    18.2

    16.2

    14.6

    Total central government debt5

    18.7

    18.7

    18.1

    20.1

    22.6

    22.1

    20.7

    20.1

    20.0

    20.0

    Government deposits with the BoB6

    3.4

    5.9

    5.5

    3.3

    0.4

    0.4

    0.6

    1.9

    3.8

    5.5

    External Sector

    		                    

        Trade balance

    -13.2

    -3.5

    2.7

    -2.4

    -6.9

    -0.9

    0.2

    0.3

    0.0

    0.0

    Current account balance

    -10.3

    -1.7

    -1.2

    -0.6

    -2.0

    1.5

    1.2

    1.2

    0.6

    0.2

    Overall Balance

    -11.7

    -1.4

    1.8

    0.6

    -0.9

    1.3

    1.3

    1.5

    0.9

    0.5

    Nominal effective exchange rate (2018=100)7

    94.0

    94.1

    90.8

    86.4

    –

    –

    –

    –

    –

    –

    Real effective exchange rate (2018=100)7

    94.4

    97.7

    99.1

    94.7

    –

    –

    –

    –

    –

    –

    Terms of trade (2005=100)

    140.5

    178.9

    161.3

    152.7

    125.9

    162.2

    171.4

    176.6

    181.6

    186.6

    External central government debt5

    7.8

    8.4

    7.5

    8.9

    8.3

    6.7

    5.6

    4.8

    3.9

    3.5

    Gross official reserves (end of period, millions of USD)

    4,944

    4,806

    4,281

    4,757

    4,587

    4,879

    5,198

    5,600

    5,852

    6,014

    Months of imports of goods and services8

    6.4

    6.6

    7.1

    7.3

    6.3

    6.0

    5.8

    5.6

    5.4

    5.1

    Months of non-diamond imports8

    9.3

    8.7

    8.2

    8.8

    7.9

    7.8

    7.6

    7.5

    7.2

    7.1

    Percent of GDP

    31.2

    27.1

    21.8

    24.2

    23.3

    22.3

    21.5

    21.7

    20.8

    19.6

    Sources: Botswana authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections.

    1 This table is based on calendar years unless otherwise indicated.

    2 Based on Atlas method from the World Bank.

    3 Fiscal variables are based on fiscal years (starting on April 1).

    4 The non-mineral non-SACU balance is computed as the difference between non-mineral non-SACU revenue and total expenditure.

    5Excludes guarantees. Debt data measured at end of fiscal year.

    6Government deposits with the BoB include Government Investment Account as well as other accounts. Deposits data measured at end of fiscal year.

    7 For 2020-2023, both effective exchange rates are from IMF INS database.

    8 Based on imports of goods and services for the following year.

    [1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

    [2] The Executive Board takes decisions under its lapse-of-time procedure when the Board agrees that a proposal can be considered without convening formal discussions.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Pavis Devahasadin

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/09/pr-24321-botswana-imf-executive-board-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation

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  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF and Ukrainian Authorities Reach Staff Level Agreement on the Fifth Review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement– Ukraine

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 10, 2024

    • International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and the Ukrainian authorities have reached staff-level agreement (SLA) on the Fifth Review of the 4-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. Subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, Ukraine would have access to about US$ 1.1 billion (SDR 834.8 million).
    • Program performance remains strong. The authorities met all end-June quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) and the structural benchmark for the review. Understandings were also reached on policy settings and reforms to sustain macroeconomic stability as the war continues.
    • The economy remained resilient in the first half of 2024, but headwinds are intensifying and the outlook remains exceptionally uncertain. The continuing war will entail fresh financing needs, requiring determined policy efforts by the authorities and large-scale support from donors.

    Kyiv, Ukraine – September 10, 2024: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Mr. Gavin Gray held discussions in Kyiv with the Ukrainian authorities, during September 4-10, 2024, on the Fifth Review of the country’s 4-year EFF Arrangement. Upon the conclusion of the discussions, Mr. Gray issued the following statement:

    “IMF staff and the Ukrainian authorities have reached staff-level agreement on the Fifth Review of the EFF. The agreement is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, with Board consideration expected in the coming weeks.

    “Ukraine’s four-year EFF Arrangement with the IMF, continues to provide a strong anchor for the authorities’ economic program in times of exceptionally high uncertainty. Performance under the program has remained strong despite the war, with all quantitative performance criteria for end-June met, as well as the structural benchmark due for this review.

    “Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to have a devastating impact on the country and its people. Skillful policymaking, the adaptability of households and firms, and robust external financing has helped support macroeconomic and financial stability. Real GDP grew by 6.5 percent y/y in the first quarter of 2024, inflation has remained low at 5.4 percent y/y in July, and gross international reserves were adequate at US$42.3 billion as of September 1.

    “However, an economic slowdown is expected in 2024H2 due to repeated attacks on energy infrastructure and the impact of the war on labor markets and confidence; growth is expected at 3 percent for 2024. Addressing the energy deficit ahead of the winter is critical, requiring coordinated efforts, including with international partners. With the war is expected to continue through 2025, real GDP growth is projected to be between 2.5-3.5 percent. Inflation is expected to rise to around 9 percent by end-2024. Risks to the outlook remain exceptionally high.

    “The 2025 Budget needs to respect financing constraints and debt sustainability objectives, and determined domestic revenue mobilization efforts are critical. Timely and predictable external financial support, on terms consistent with debt sustainability, remains indispensable for maintaining economic stability.

    “Tax revenues need to increase in 2025 and beyond to create space for critical spending, to preserve essential buffers and restore fiscal sustainability. Achieving this will require the implementation of permanent tax policy measures and relentless efforts to close existing opportunities for tax evasion, improve compliance, and combat the shadow economy, in line with the National Revenue Strategy (NRS). Legislation to reform the Customs code should confirm the central role of the Finance Ministry in overseeing customs, while robust processes should be established for selecting a permanent head of customs as well as other key leadership roles.

    “The successful treatment of Ukraine’s Eurobonds will deliver substantial debt relief, freeing up resources for priority spending areas. Attention is now shifting to the remaining external commercial claims in the restructuring perimeter, including the GDP warrants, which should be treated in line with the program’s strategy to restore debt sustainability.

    “Upside risks to inflation have reduced the scope for further easing through the end of the year, and the monetary policy stance remains appropriate and consistent with achieving the inflation target over the medium term. The exchange rate should continue to act as a shock absorber and adjust to market fundamentals, thereby helping to safeguard external stability. Appropriate monetary policy combined with the framework of managed exchange rate flexibility should help prevent excessive exchange rate volatility and the de-anchoring of FX and inflation expectations. A judicious and staged approach to FX liberalization should continue in line with the National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) strategy, and consistent with the overall policy mix.

    “Effective governance frameworks are critical for durable growth, levelling the playing field, and pursuing the path to EU accession. In this regard, the independence, competence, and credibility of anti-corruption and judicial institutions should continue to be enhanced. In particular, strengthening the criminal procedural code, establishing a new high administrative court, and reforming the Accounting Chamber of Ukraine are key. The inaugural external audit of the National Anti-corruption Bureau is a short-term priority. The full supervisory board of Ukrenergo should be re-established by end-December.

    “The financial sector is stable and liquid, with reforms continuing apace despite challenges under Martial Law. To preserve financial stability and enhance preparedness for potential shocks, priorities include strengthening the bank rehabilitation framework, contingency planning, and bank governance.

    “The mission met with Finance Minister Marchenko, National Bank of Ukraine Governor Pyshnyy, other government ministers, public officials and civil society. The mission thanks them and their technical staff for their close collaboration and constructive discussions.”


    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Camila Perez

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/11/pr24326-IMF-and-Ukrainian-Authorities-Reach-Staff-Level-Agreement-Fifth-Review-EFF

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  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF statement on Honduras

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 10, 2024

    Washington, DC: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Mr. Ricardo Llaudes issued a statement following in person and virtual discussions with the Honduran authorities on policies to support the authorities’ economic program:

    “The Fund team welcomes the adoption by the Council of Ministers of Honduras of the 2025 draft Budget Bill. The draft Budget is in line with the authorities’ economic program supported by the IMF, providing space for critical social and infrastructure spending.

    “In addition, productive discussions, both virtual and in person, have taken place over the past months on economic policies to safeguard Honduras’ domestic and external stability, paving the way for a program review mission planned for the first half of October.”

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Rosa A Hernandez

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/10/pr24325-imf-statement-on-honduras

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  • MIL-OSI Russia: Harnessing the Power of Integration: A Path to Prosperity in Central Asia

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 11, 2024

    Distinguished guests, I am delighted to be here in Bishkek on my first visit to the Kyrgyz Republic, in the heart of Central Asia.

    This region has been at the crossroads of civilizations for millennia. It is a mosaic of a rich cultural heritage, diverse peoples, and natural endowments that include spectacular mountains, lakes, rivers, and a rich biodiversity. It is also located very favorably at the crossroads of Asia and Europe. Needless to say, it is quite truly a unique region!

    As we gather here today to discuss the economic possibilities for the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region, we all recognize that the world is changing rapidly, and this is a pivotal moment.

    It reminds me of another time of momentous opportunity, when the region gained independence in the 1990s. Since then, the CCA countries have made remarkable progress by unleashing their first wave of market- oriented reforms, generating higher growth and improving living standards.

    But new and unprecedented challenges have emerged. The Covid-19 pandemic and its aftermath are only just in our rear-view mirrors, as the region confronts emerging challenges from climate change to regional conflicts. The global economy has also shifted with geoeconomic fragmentation emerging as a key risk.

    The theme of my remarks today is simple: in this changing world, raising living standards in the CCA region requires bold, concerted action.

    We must strengthen stability and resilience, promote regional integration, and launch a new wave of reforms. This is how we can unleash the full economic potential of the region and its vibrant young populations, accelerate growth, create jobs and open-up opportunities for generations to come.

    Building on Macroeconomic Stability

    It is important to remind ourselves of the global context as we consider what is needed to propel the region to the next level of economic growth and prosperity.

    The world economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and an inflation surge. Global growth bottomed out at 2.3 percent in 2022 and is expected to rebound to 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025. Initial fears of recession and uncontrolled wage-price spirals fortunately did not materialize and there is less economic scarring from the pandemic than anticipated.

    However, medium-term growth projections remain below historical averages. Persistence of inflation in parts of the world, geopolitical conflicts, and the gaps in structural reforms needed to promote efficient resource allocation remain critical challenges. Global inflation is projected to decline to 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025, with advanced economies returning to inflation targets before emerging market and developing economies.

    The risks to the outlook are still considerable. Notably, geopolitical tensions and regional conflicts pose downside risks, potentially causing new price spikes. Other risks include rising trade protectionism, increasing inequality, and financial market volatility. At the same time, the fact that this year saw the hottest day on record for the planet serves as a stark reminder of daunting challenges due to climate change.

    Policymakers in the CCA region deserve full credit for navigating their economies through these turbulent times and maintaining macroeconomic stability. Rapid COVID virus containment, decisive policy actions, and robust international support have led to a swift recovery, with the region growing at 4.9 percent in 2023.

    Inflation fell in most CCA countries, including in the Kyrgyz Republic, amid exchange rate appreciations and a decline in commodity prices. Inflation remained more persistent in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan due to strong domestic demand, elevated inflation expectations, and energy price reforms in Kazakhstan.

    In the April Regional Economic Outlook, we projected a growth slowdown to 3.9 percent in 2024, but inflows of income, capital, and migrants from Russia, and rerouting of trade though the region have again boosted growth to impressive high single digits so far this year in oil importing CCA economies, including the Kyrgyz Republic. In Kazakhstan, on the other hand, growth is expected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2024 before picking up to 5.6 percent in 2025 as production increases from the Tengiz oil fields.

    Over the medium term, growth in the region is expected to moderate to under 4 percent and inflation stabilize in mid-single digits. Escalation of the war in Ukraine and the Gaza conflict, however, could cause commodity price volatility and a reversal of the recent trade patterns.

    Achieving macroeconomic stability is just a beginning. It is not sufficient to meet the aspirations of current and future generations.

    Now is the time for us to come together and take bold steps to unleash a new wave of reforms that will durably raise growth, create more jobs, and improve living standards. This requires reforms to increase productivity, strengthen resilience to shocks, and expand markets.

    While this is ambitious, it is within our reach as long as there is consensus to move ahead on this path. The current favorable macroeconomic conditions offer a promising window of opportunity because, as our research shows, structural reforms yield greater growth dividends during economic expansions.

    From Stability to Prosperity

    Historically, this region has been a vital link between Europe and Asia, serving as a conduit for trade, culture, and innovation.

    Today, regional integration can once again harness this potential. It can facilitate the freer movement of goods, services, capital, and people, increase market size and economic efficiency, and promote inclusive prosperity.

    Moreover, deepening ties within the region and global markets can foster stability and peace. Regional integration is therefore not just an opportunity, but an economic necessity.

    Reducing nontariff trade barriers, boosting infrastructure investment, and enhancing regulatory quality could increase trade by up to 17 percent on average in the CCA region, as our research shows. They can also improve market access and foster diversification.

    Transportation networks, such as roads, railways, and ports are essential to facilitate cross-border trade. The planned construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is an illustration of cross-country cooperation to improve connectivity between the East and the West, supporting the region’s ambition to regain its historical role. 

    You have abundant renewable energy resources in the region, including hydro, solar and wind power. Enhanced energy cooperation will help develop regional energy markets, ensure security, and create export opportunities. Collaborative projects, such as Kambarata-1, can help diversify the energy mix and reduce dependency on fossil fuels. Critically, it can also improve water availability for neighboring countries.

    Both of these investments—the railway and Kambarata-1—hold enormous potential for regional development and connectivity. Collective effort in mobilizing expertise and financing is essential for full realization of this potential while sustaining macroeconomic stability that has been a hallmark of the region’s recent achievements.

    This brings me to the importance of regional cooperation in addressing the risks of climate change, which requires immediate and resolute actions from all of us.

    A Path to a Low-Carbon Future

    The CCA region is highly vulnerable to climate change. Temperatures are rising fast, and droughts and floods have become more frequent and severe, causing immense damage to crops, infrastructure and livelihoods. We estimate that unabated climate change could cause a loss of annual output of nearly 6.5 percent in the region by 2060.

    The good news is that these losses could be substantially reduced by joint actions to cut emissions, adapt to climate change, and manage the risks of transition to a low-carbon economy.

    The region must collaborate to promote green technologies, improve energy efficiency, and manage natural resources sustainably. Scaling back energy subsidies and introducing carbon-pricing mechanisms can contribute to global mitigation efforts. In this respect, the Kyrgyz Republic’s commitment to raising electricity tariffs and gradually eliminating energy subsidies is a shining example.

    Such decisive measures can enhance resilience to climate change and create higher-paying jobs–green jobs that pay 7 percent more on average.

    Reforms for Enhanced Growth and Stability

    To fully realize the benefits of regional integration, structural reforms are essential. Our research finds that such reforms could lift output by 5-7 percent in the next 4 to 6 years.

    Let me highlight a few key areas where structural reforms can help achieve this boost:

    A vibrant private sector is the engine of growth. Strengthening governance, property rights and the rule of law, and reducing the state footprint in the economy by simplifying regulations, fostering competition, and combating corruption will build confidence and attract private investment.

    Importantly, we find that governance reforms yield the highest growth dividends and amplify the positive impacts of other reforms. The implication is clear: governance reforms should be prioritized and accompanied by other reforms.

    Prudent management of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is also critical. While some SOEs serve essential public-policy objectives and should remain in public hands, it is crucial that they operate efficiently and do not crowd out the private sector.

    In most cases, however, the private sector is more efficient in delivering goods and services and creating jobs. Therefore, privatization of non-essential SOEs can lead to more dynamic and competitive markets, enhancing growth and resilience.

    Investments in education, health, and digital infrastructure are vital to boost productivity. The full potential of the region’s young and dynamic population can only be unleashed through high quality education and healthcare.

    Enhancing digital infrastructure also offers vast opportunities for productivity growth, especially in a region with young people eager to embrace new technologies.

    As the CCA starts to reap the benefits of these reforms, it is equally important to ensure that growth benefits all segments of society, and the vulnerable are shielded from the impacts of energy subsidy reforms and climate change. Well-targeted social assistance is essential for reducing poverty and inequality.

    Benefits work best when they incentivize work and are targeted and timely to support adversely affected households during economic downturns but scale back when the recovery takes hold. Empowering women and promoting gender equality can unlock significant economic potential and contribute to more inclusive growth.

    IMF’s Commitment to CCA Stability and Growth

    The IMF has been a steadfast partner of the CCA region since its initial days of independence. We provide policy advice, financing, and technical assistance to help our members in the region stabilize their economies, develop sustainable growth, and reduce poverty.

    The IMF stands by all its member countries in both prosperous and challenging times. For example, our assistance during the COVID-19 pandemic helped our membership weather the crisis and lay the groundwork for recovery.

    To better support our member in the CCA, the IMF established the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Mongolia Regional Capacity Development Center. This center provides technical assistance and training to help countries in the region build stronger institutions and implement sound economic policies. It also represents our long-term commitment to the region’s development.

    Conclusion

    Let me conclude. Since its early days of independence, the CCA region has shown tremendous perseverance in laying the foundation of a prosperous, peaceful society.

    Today, you are confronting new global challenges that test the resilience and adaptability of your economies. Embracing continued market-oriented reforms is the most effective strategy to strengthen your economies. Now is the time to forge ahead with bold spirits.

    The IMF will continue to support your efforts, working in partnership for the benefit of all people in this region and beyond.

    Thank you.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Angham Al Shami

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100 Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/11/sp09112024-harnessing-power-integration-path-prosperity-central-asia-dmd-bo-li

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  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Denmark

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 13, 2024

    Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with Denmark.

    The Danish economy has continued to expand at a robust pace, driven by an exceptional surge in the pharmaceutical. In contrast, the rest of the economy has remained relatively subdued, aside from the maritime and information and communication technology industries, reflecting sluggish demand. Meanwhile, with a decline in global energy prices and lackluster domestic demand, inflationary pressures have largely dissipated in recent months.

    Growth is anticipated to gradually moderate in the near term but become more balanced across industries. Output growth is projected to moderate from 2.5 percent in 2023 to 1.9 percent in 2024 and to 1.6 percent in 2025. The growth of pharmaceutical and maritime exports will taper off, while that of the rest of the economy will be bolstered by a pickup in external demand, improved consumer purchasing power, and further easing of financial conditions. The reopening of the Tyra natural gas will also contribute to growth in 2024 and 2025. Inflation might temporarily edge up in the coming months due to the lagged effect of last year’s wage collective bargaining agreement before stabilizing at around 2 percent during the second half of 2025. The balance of risks to growth is skewed to the downside, with primary downside risks including a global slowdown, the possible escalation of the conflict in Gaza and Israel and Russia’s war in Ukraine, and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation.

    Executive Board Assessment[2]

    In concluding the 2024 Article IV consultation with Denmark, Executive Directors endorsed staff’s appraisal, as follows:

    Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They commended Denmark’s remarkable resilience amidst multiple shocks, underpinned by sound policies, strong governance, and robust institutions. Noting a positive outlook with more balanced growth and stabilizing inflation, Directors cautioned that risks—including from a global growth slowdown, geoeconomic fragmentation, and demographic pressures—are tilted to the downside. To navigate these challenges and maintain Denmark’s welfare state, they emphasized the importance of continued sound macroeconomic management, supported by structural reforms to boost productivity, and lift long‑term growth.

    Directors commended Denmark’s robust public finances. They concurred that fiscal policy should consider cyclical conditions and long‑term spending needs. In this regard, Directors agreed that fiscal policy should avoid adding to capacity pressures in the short term. They supported the slight easing of the fiscal stance for 2025 and beyond to accommodate the increases in costs related to health, climate, and defense. To safeguard long‑term fiscal sustainability, Directors encouraged the authorities to closely monitor fiscal pressures and take additional adjustment measures if necessary.

    While noting that the financial system remains sound, Directors recommended that the authorities continue to closely monitor risks, in particular, related to the commercial real estate sector. They welcomed the recent tightening of macroprudential policies and suggested considering additional borrower‑based measures to address pockets of vulnerabilities.  Continued collaboration on the Nordic‑wide bank stress tests would also be important. Directors encouraged the authorities to further strengthen AML/CFT and cybersecurity frameworks.

    Directors agreed that systemic risks arising from nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) warrant closer monitoring and enhanced customer protection. They encouraged the authorities to develop a systemic risk assessment encompassing banks and NBFIs and to finalize a supervisory order to enhance customer protection.

    Directors emphasized the importance of continued reform efforts to increase the labor supply, address skills mismatches, and better integrate migrants.  They were encouraged by the authorities’ strong commitment to further enhance digitalization, innovation, and business dynamism to boost productivity growth. Directors welcomed Denmark’s commitment to transparent free‑trade policies within the multilateral and rules‑based trading system.

    Directors commended the authorities’ ambitious climate change mitigation targets and the agreement to reduce emissions in the agriculture sector. They encouraged updating the estimates of the investment needs for climate adaptation.

    Denmark: Selected Economic Indicators

    2023

    2024

    2025

    proj.

    Output

    Real GDP growth (%)

    2.5

    1.9

    1.6

    Employment

    Unemployment rate (%)

    2.8

    2.9

    3.0

    Prices

    Inflation (%, average)

    3.4

    1.8

    2.2

    General Government Finances

    Revenue (% GDP)

    50.1

    49.6

    48.8

    Expenditures (% GDP)

    46.8

    47.8

    48.0

    Fiscal balance (% GDP)

    3.3

    1.8

    0.9

    Public debt (% GDP)

    29.7

    28.2

    27.3

    Money and Credit

    Domestic credit growth (%)

    3.2

    …

    …

    3-month interbank interest rate (%)

    3.4

    …

    …

    10-year government bond yield (%)

    2.4

    …

    …

    Balance of Payments

    Current account (% GDP)

    9.8

    9.0

    9.3

    International reserves (% change)

    1.3

    …

    …

    Exchange Rate

    ULC-based REER (% change)

    -0.4

    …

    …

    Sources: Statistics Denmark; OECD; and IMF staff calculations.

     

    [1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

    [2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Boris Balabanov

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/12/pr-24327-denmark-imf-executive-board-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Kingdom of Lesotho

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 11, 2024

    • Lesotho’s GDP growth has improved modestly, picking up to 2.2 percent in the fiscal year ending in March 2024. Inflation increased in the second half of 2023, peaking at 8.2 percent in January 2024. But upward pressures have eased, and inflation has since fallen to 6.5 percent in June.
    • The outlook for Lesotho’s fiscal and external balances has improved significantly owing to windfall transfers from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and renegotiated water royalties.
    • In this context, and amid Lesotho’s sizable development needs, a key challenge for the authorities will be to ensure that this revenue is saved wisely and spent strategically.

    Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with the Kingdom of Lesotho.

    GDP growth picked up modestly to 2.2 percent in 12-month period ending March 2024, compared with 1.6 percent a year earlier. This largely reflects accelerated construction from the Lesotho Highlands Water Project. Nonetheless, unemployment remains high, diamond and textile exports have been sluggish, and an exceptional dry season increased food-security concerns across the country.

    Headline inflation reached 6.5 percent in June, up from 4.5 percent in July 2023, though down from a peak of 8.2 percent in January 2024. The increase in inflation was largely due to exogenous factors that will most likely fade going forward.

    Lesotho registered a sizable fiscal surplus of 6.1 percent of GDP in during the fiscal year ending March 2024. In a change from past practice, transitory SACU transfers
    (10.4 percent of GDP higher than in FY22/23) were not accompanied by a parallel increase of the public wage bill. Instead, the authorities used the SACU proceeds to reduce arrears and rebuild deposits at the Central Bank.

    In support of the Loti’s peg to the Rand, the Central Bank of Lesotho has kept the policy rate steady at 7.75 percent since May 2023, in line with policy rates in South Africa.

    Financial conditions remain stable—private sector credit growth picked up to 12.5 percent in FY23/24, mainly due to construction, while the nonperforming loans have eased to
    3.8 percent of total loans as of 2023 Q4.

    Growth is projected to peak in the fiscal year ending in March 2025 (at 2.7 percent), while inflation is expected to ease slowly. Another year of windfall SACU transfers (6 percentage points of GDP above the 10-year average) will again bolster fiscal and external balances in FY24/25. These transfers are projected to fall sharply starting in FY25/26, though higher water royalties will help fill the gap. As a result, the fiscal balance is projected at a surplus of around 1 percent of GDP over the medium term, with the current account deficit at a modest
    2.6 percent.

    The authorities are encouraged to continue their prudent fiscal approach, ensuring that additional revenues are saved wisely and spent strategically, while also pushing ahead with reforms to support private sector-led growth.

    Executive Board Assessment[2]

    Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed the recent pickup in growth but concurred that Lesotho’s economy faces substantial challenges, including high unemployment, widespread poverty, and sluggish growth. They also noted the risks posed by global growth shocks, extreme weather events, uncertain transfers from the South African Customs Union (SACU), and commodity price volatility. Against this background, Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to strengthening policy frameworks, supported by Fund capacity development as needed.

    Directors emphasized the need for continued fiscal prudence to strengthen foreign exchange reserve coverage, safeguard the peg, and preserve medium-term debt sustainability. They agreed that containing the public wage bill, increasing spending efficiency, and prioritizing social spending on the most vulnerable remain critical. Given increased water royalties, Directors encouraged the authorities to establish a well-governed savings framework anchored by a credible fiscal rule to build buffers and support Lesotho’s long-term development objectives.

    Directors agreed that public financial management (PFM) should be strengthened. They encouraged passage of PFM-related legislation, and improved budget processes, strengthened internal controls, and enhanced financial reporting. Directors also underscored the importance of boosting public investment efficiency, through a prioritized capital project pipeline with enhanced project management capacity.

    Directors concurred that monetary policy should focus on price stability and safeguarding the exchange rate peg. They noted the slowdown in inflation, but urged the authorities to monitor price dynamics closely and stand ready to adjust monetary policy if inflationary pressures reemerge. Directors encouraged the authorities to improve central bank governance and coordinate closely across institutions on fiscal and monetary policies.

    Directors noted that the financial sector remains stable and encouraged continued monitoring of risks, including from the nonbank financial sector. They concurred that an updated national financial inclusion strategy would be key to improving financial intermediation and supporting private sector growth. They welcomed the progress made in strengthening legal and regulatory frameworks for financial stability and AML/CFT.

    Directors strongly encouraged the authorities to implement much-needed structural reforms to catalyze job-rich inclusive growth, including by improving the business environment, strengthening governance, and reducing corruption risks. They lauded the authorities’ commitment to improving data quality and timeliness to support policymaking.

    Lesotho: Selected Economic Indicators, 2020/21–2029/301
     

    2020/21

    2021/22

    2022/23

    2023/24

    2024/25

    2025/26

    2026/27

    2027/28

    2028/29

    2029/30

    Act.

    Act.

    Act.

    Est.

    Projections

    (12-month percent change, unless otherwise indicated)

    National Account and Prices

    		                    

    GDP at constant prices (including LHWP-II)

    -5.3

    1.7

    1.6

    2.2

    2.7

    2.4

    1.9

    2.1

    2.1

    2.1

    GDP at constant prices (excluding LHWP-II)

    -3.0

    4.4

    1.4

    1.5

    1.6

    1.7

    1.8

    1.9

    1.9

    2.0

    GDP at market prices (Maloti billions)

    34.2

    36.0

    38.5

    41.5

    45.2

    48.8

    52.4

    56.1

    60.0

    64.4

    GDP at market prices (US$ billions)

    2.1

    2.4

    2.3

    2.2

    2.3

    2.4

    2.5

    2.7

    2.8

    2.9

    Consumer prices (average)

    5.4

    6.5

    8.2

    6.5

    6.7

    5.8

    5.6

    5.3

    5.1

    5.1

    Consumer prices (eop)

    6.5

    7.2

    6.8

    7.4

    6.0

    5.5

    5.4

    5.3

    5.0

    5.0

    GDP deflator

    5.2

    3.5

    5.3

    5.4

    6.0

    5.4

    5.3

    4.9

    4.9

    5.1

    External Sector

    		                    

    Terms of trade (“–” = deterioration)

    3.5

    -1.6

    -3.2

    -5.9

    -2.7

    0.6

    0.1

    -0.6

    0.1

    0.1

    Average exchange rate

    		                    

    (Local currency per US$)

    16.4

    14.9

    17.0

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    Nominal effective exchange rate change (– depreciation)2

    -8.7

    6.3

    -3.0

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    Real effective exchange rate (– depreciation)2

    -6.0

    8.7

    -1.9

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    Current account balance (percent of GDP)

    -5.7

    -9.0

    -13.8

    -0.2

    -0.7

    -2.3

    -2.3

    -3.2

    -2.9

    -2.5

    (excluding LHWP-II imports, percent of GDP)

    -2.3

    -6.5

    -9.6

    6.4

    3.6

    1.7

    0.1

    -1.5

    -1.9

    -1.6

    Gross international reserves

    		                    

    (Months of imports)

    4.1

    4.3

    4.0

    4.3

    4.9

    5.7

    6.2

    6.3

    6.4

    6.5

    (excluding imports for LHWP-II, months of imports)

    4.2

    4.5

    4.3

    4.5

    5.0

    5.9

    6.3

    6.4

    6.4

    6.5

    Money and Credit

    		                    

    Net international reserves

    		                    

    (US$ millions)

    718

    846

    671

    755

    916

    1,121

    1,258

    1,343

    1,417

    1,513

    (Percent of M1 Plus)

    109

    127

    111

    114

    137

    163

    179

    185

    190

    197

    (US$ millions, CBL calculation)

    777

    843

    698

    755

    843

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    (Percent of M1 Plus, CBL calculation)

    118

    127

    116

    114

    126

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    Domestic credit to the private sector

    -3.0

    6.7

    8.7

    12.5

    9.0

    8.1

    8.0

    8.3

    7.4

    7.7

    Reserve money

    16.5

    1.0

    24.5

    24.0

    1.9

    1.2

    1.6

    1.6

    2.1

    2.3

    Broad money

    12.2

    0.0

    8.7

    15.2

    3.9

    5.0

    5.1

    5.4

    5.1

    5.4

    Interest rate (percent)3

    3.8

    3.5

    3.5

    4.7

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

    Public Debt

    54.7

    58.4

    64.5

    61.5

    59.9

    59.7

    59.8

    59.8

    59.5

    59.5

    External public debt

    42.9

    42.3

    47.2

    47.8

    46.6

    46.4

    46.2

    46.2

    46.0

    46.0

    Domestic public debt

    11.7

    16.1

    17.3

    13.7

    13.3

    13.3

    13.5

    13.5

    13.5

    13.5

    Central Government Fiscal Operations

    		                    

    Revenue

    54.4

    48.8

    44.6

    56.5

    63.4

    61.1

    57.8

    55.6

    55.6

    54.8

    Domestic revenue (excluding SACU transfers and grants)

    25.1

    27.2

    27.6

    29.3

    31.0

    36.6

    34.9

    33.7

    33.7

    33.7

    SACU transfers

    26.2

    16.7

    14.0

    24.5

    25.6

    19.3

    18.5

    17.5

    17.5

    17.5

    Grants

    3.1

    4.9

    3.0

    2.8

    6.9

    5.2

    4.3

    4.3

    4.3

    3.6

    Recurrent expenditure

    43.0

    38.6

    40.5

    40.8

    42.0

    40.9

    40.9

    40.8

    40.8

    40.8

    Of which: wages, including social contributions

    17.6

    17.0

    18.0

    17.1

    16.8

    16.7

    16.6

    16.4

    16.4

    16.4

    Capital expenditure

    11.4

    15.5

    9.6

    9.6

    16.3

    14.3

    13.9

    14.0

    14.1

    13.5

    Additional fiscal measures

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    Overall balance

    0.0

    -5.4

    -5.5

    6.1

    5.1

    5.8

    3.0

    0.8

    0.6

    0.5

    (excluding SACU transfers and grants)

    -29.3

    -27.0

    -22.5

    -21.1

    -27.3

    -18.6

    -19.8

    -21.1

    -21.3

    -20.6

       Operating balance

    0.0

    -5.4

    -5.5

    6.1

    5.1

    5.8

    3.0

    0.8

    0.6

    0.5

    Primary balance

    1.6

    -4.0

    -3.6

    8.1

    6.7

    7.5

    4.8

    2.7

    2.6

    2.6

    (excluding SACU transfers and grants)

    -27.7

    -25.6

    -20.6

    -19.2

    -25.7

    -17.0

    -18.0

    -19.2

    -19.3

    -18.6

    Statistical discrepancy

    -0.6

    0.6

    2.2

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    Sources: Lesotho authorities, World Bank, and IMF staff calculations.

    1 The fiscal year runs from April 1 to March 31.

    		                    

    2 IMF Information Notice System trade-weighted; end of period.

    		                  

    3 12-month time deposits rate.

    		                    

    [1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

    [2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Julie Ziegler

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/10/pr-24324-lesotho-imf-executive-board-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Kenya

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 17, 2024

    Washington, DC: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Haimanot Teferra, visited Nairobi during September 11-16 and held discussions with Kenyan authorities on recent developments and their policies to manage the emerging challenges.

    At the conclusion of the visit, Ms. Teferra issued the following statement:

    “The Kenyan authorities and IMF staff had productive discussions on the authorities’ policies and reforms to address the evolving economic and fiscal challenges.

    “We remain fully committed to support the authorities on their efforts to identify a set of policies that could support the completion of the reviews under the ongoing program as soon as feasible. The authorities expressed commitment to advancing economic and governance reforms which are crucial for fostering sustainable and inclusive growth that benefits all Kenyans. We will continue our discussions with the authorities.”

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Pavis Devahasadin

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/17/pr-24332-kenya-imf-staff-concludes-visit

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation Discussions with the Kingdom of the Netherlands—Curaçao and Sint Maarten

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 17, 2024

    Washington, DC: On September 10, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation discussions[1] with the Kingdom of the Netherlands—Curaçao and Sint Maarten and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis[2]. These consultation discussions form part of the Article IV consultation with the Kingdom of the Netherlands.

    Context. Curaçao and Sint Maarten have continued to experience a vigorous post-pandemic recovery underpinned by strong stayover tourism, which is outperforming Caribbean peers. Headline inflation has declined rapidly led by international oil price developments, notwithstanding a recent uptick, while core inflation remains elevated. In both countries, current account deficits improved markedly from pandemic years but remain high. Fiscal positions remained strong and in compliance with the fiscal rule. The landspakket, the structural reform package agreed with the Netherlands in 2020, continues to guide both countries’ reform agenda.

    Curaçao outlook. Growth is expected to accelerate in 2024 before gradually converging to its potential over the medium term. Stayover tourism supported by fiscal expansion is projected to drive economic growth at a robust 4.5 percent in 2024 due to new airlifts and further expansion in hotel capacity. Growth is then expected to moderate to reach 1.5 percent over the medium term, given subpar investment and productivity growth coupled with sustained population decline and beginning saturation in tourism flows, assuming no further reforms and diversification. Headline inflation is projected to decline mildly to 3.2 percent in 2024 from 3.5 percent in 2023, but to continue falling towards its steady state of around 2 percent by 2027 reflecting international price developments. Fiscal balances would be guided by the fiscal rule and debt would continue to decline, while surpluses narrow as investments return and social spending pressures mount. The current account deficit is expected to improve in the medium term but would remain elevated.

    Sint Maarten outlook. Growth is expected to moderate in the medium term as tourism recovery and the reconstruction taper off. Growth is expected to be 2.7 percent in 2024 and 3 percent in 2025, supported by a delayed recovery in cruise passengers towards pre-pandemic levels. However, the near-term outlook is threatened by the electricity load shedding (since June) and political instability. From 2026 onwards, growth is expected to gradually converge towards 1.8 percent as the stimulus from the reconstruction peters out, and tourism growth becomes constrained by the island’s carrying capacity and ailing infrastructure. Inflation is expected to remain broadly contained while remaining vulnerable to international price developments. Over the medium term, the government will continue to comply with the golden fiscal rule and capacity constraints will continue to weigh on public investment.

    Monetary Union. Monetary policy is appropriately targeted towards maintaining the peg. Efforts to absorb excess liquidity should continue while closely monitoring developments in core inflation driven by tourism-related services. The financial sector is sound and risks to financial stability have substantially diminished as the CBCS advances its reform agenda. Banks are highly liquid and adequately capitalized and systemic risks are contained. Building on the CBCS’s strong progress in strengthening supervisory and regulatory capacity, and the recent resolution agreement for ENNIA, staff welcomes CBCS’s continued efforts in its reform agenda, including financial stability and crisis management.

    Executive Board Assessment[3]

    Curaçao

    Curaçao’s economy successfully embraced the pivot towards tourism-led growth, giving rise to a strong near-term outlook. After losing key traditional industries, Curaçao quickly and successfully leveraged its tourism potential to grow, attract new hotels, and create jobs. While this is serving the economy well in the near term – growth is projected to accelerate to 4½ in 2024 – structural shifts have started to emerge, including a low-skilled, informal recovery of the labor market amidst low investment in non-tourist sectors. Growth is expected to moderate over the medium term given saturation in tourism flows, sustained population decline, and subpar investment. Notwithstanding the economy’s recent overperformance, inflation declined significantly and only reversed some of its gains recently on the back of higher international oil prices and unfavorable base effects. Inflation is expected to gradually converge towards its steady state rate of around 2 percent. Fiscal policy remains guided by the fiscal rule, albeit past surpluses are expected to unwind, allowing for the reversal of pandemic wage cuts and a return of public investments. The current account markedly improved thanks to lower oil prices but the deficit remains elevated.

    Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced. Growth slowdown in major economies could negatively impact tourism receipts, while positive surprises could boost foreign demand. Domestically, a successful expansion of renewable energy and faster-than-expected development of hotel capacity and yachting marinas would boost growth, while delays in public investment and more persistent core inflation could dent tourist experience and competitiveness.

    Efforts to safeguard recently created fiscal space are welcome. Overall surpluses in 2022 and 2023 helped reduce debt and granted access to favorable financing terms from the Netherlands. Safeguarding this space and avoiding procyclical impetus is warranted, including through more gradual unwinding of pandemic wage cuts in 2024, prudent liquidity management to repay a bullet loan in 2025, and general efforts to strengthen tax administration, review procurement and domestic arrears management, and streamline transfers to public entities. Ensuing room for maneuver could be used for priority investments, including for climate adaptation, guided by a medium-term fiscal framework steering towards the island’s debt anchor.

    Healthcare and pension reforms are needed to lock in a sustainable expenditure path and mitigate medium-term fiscal risks. Growing health and old-age pension deficits, exacerbated by an aging population, pose risks to the sustainability of public finances. Recent initiatives to incentivize the use of generics and raise the pension age are commendable, and more needs to be done to put the system on a sustainable path. Staff sees a broad range of efficiency gains in health spending, including lowering pharmaceuticals and laboratory costs and enhancing primary care’s gatekeeping role. Reforms on the revenue side, including broadening the contributor base and increasing co-payments, are politically more difficult.

    Sustaining the positive growth momentum in the medium term requires investments in capital and labor and resolving existing growth bottlenecks. First, moving up the value chain with high-end resorts and complementary recreational activities would help sustain valuable income growth from tourism but requires scaling up investments in infrastructure and deregulating the transportation sector. Second, further investments in electricity grid and energy storage, as well as a revised pricing strategy, are needed to accompany the ongoing energy transition and reap its vast benefits, including lower fuel imports, emissions, and electricity prices. The envisaged floating offshore wind park for hydrogen production would be a game changer for the island. Boosting public investment to achieve these objectives, however, requires ramping up capacity in planning and execution. Third, to further stimulate growth and offset the sustained population decline, formal labor markets and skills would need to be strengthened. And fourth, continued improvements in the business climate in line with the landspakket’s economic reform pillar could help overcome decade-low productivity growth.

    Important strides in reducing ML/FT vulnerabilities are welcome and could be built upon. The draft online gaming law, implementation of risk-based supervision, and a new law to address EU grey listing and enable automatic information exchange represent important strides in enhancing Curaçao’s defenses against ML/FT and related reputational risks. Curaçao can further improve upon these important accomplishments, including by passing and implementing the aforementioned legislations in a timely manner and enhancing coordination and monitoring across relevant agencies.

    Sint Maarten

    Near-term growth is strongly anchored but preserving the positive momentum hinges on investments to revamp an ailing infrastructure and improve tourism’s value added. The economic recovery is well underway, underpinned by tourism recovery and the reconstruction. GDP is expected to surpass its pre-Irma level in 2025. However, without investments to upgrade an ailing infrastructure, growth will falter as the island approaches its maximum carrying capacity. Strategies should continue to focus on enhancing tourist’s experience, differentiating from other Caribbean destinations, and improving tourism’s value added.

    A comprehensive strategy is required to durably resolve the electricity crisis. Mobile electricity generators have been leased and efforts to replace old engines are underway. Once the immediate crisis is resolved, efforts should be devoted towards developing a detailed masterplan for the energy transition with targets, projects, costing, timeline, and a comprehensive assessment of ancillary investments. The Trust Fund could receive a new mandate, beyond 2028, to operate as a public investment agency in charge of planning, securing the financing, and implementing plans for the energy transition.

    Revenue mobilization efforts are essential to ensure fiscal sustainability. Plans to lower tax rates, to make the country more competitive with neighboring islands, should be avoided as this would reduce government’s revenues and endanger fiscal sustainability. Instead, additional revenues are required to satisfy the fiscal rule, service loans with the Netherlands, raise public wages to attract and retain talent, increase transfers to cover public health costs, and clear public arrears with the SZV. Envisaged reforms to enhance the tax administration and to digitize and interface government systems should be complemented with plans to i) tax casinos’ profits, turnover, and winnings; ii) enforce the lodging tax on short-term rentals, and income and profit tax on the proceeds from such rentals; iii) update the price of land leases; and iv) institute a tourist levy at the airport.

    Without reforms, the healthcare and pensions funds are unsustainable. Health premiums and government transfers are insufficient to cover health costs, which are being cross-financed with pension savings. With unchanged policies, given population aging and rising administrative costs, both health and pensions funds will run deficits by 2027, and the SZV would deplete its liquid assets by 2027. By 2030, the government would need to transfer about 4 percent of GDP per year to sustain the system. Reforms are urgently needed to contain health costs including: i) introducing the General Health Insurance, ii) rationalizing benefits, iii) extending the use of generics, iv) optimizing referrals, v) strengthening preventing care, and vi) adopting out-of-pocket payments. Given the rapid pace of population aging, additional measures such as increasing the contribution rates and linking the retirement age to life expectancy, should also be considered.

    Strengthening the implementation of AML/CFT measures is necessary to increase effectiveness of the AML/CFT regime. Laws for an effective AML/CFT framework were approved but their implementation is lagging. UBO registration is yet to begin, while the investigation and prosecution of suspicious activities is lacking. Granting the FIU full independence to investigate and prosecute cases, and increasing its budget for recruitment and operations could strengthen the AML/CFT framework.

     

    The Monetary Union of Curaçao and Sint Maarten

    The current account deficit is expected to improve in the medium term but would remain elevated, while international reserves are expected to remain broadly stable. Large CADs in both countries are expected to improve and remain well-financed, leading to a stable and broadly adequate level of international reserves over the medium term. Curaçao’s external position is assessed to be weaker than implied by fundamentals and desired policy settings due to an elevated CAD and sustained appreciation of the real effective exchange rate, while that of Sint Maarten is considered in line with fundamentals and desired policy settings.

    Monetary policy is appropriately targeted towards maintaining the peg. In line with global monetary policy tightening, the CBCS increased its benchmark rate during 2022-23 and has kept it unchanged since September 2023. Efforts to absorb excess liquidity should continue while closely monitoring developments in core inflation driven by tourism-related services. Even though credit growth declined further and reached negative territory in real terms amidst monetary tightening, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy remains weak. Structural factors include the absence of interbank and government securities markets. The continued increase in mortgages, the only credit component to display growth, was accompanied by a broadly stable loan-to-value ratio on aggregate, albeit more granular data is needed to monitor potential vulnerabilities. Further acceleration in mortgage credit could warrant introducing a macro prudential limit below the currently by banks self-imposed ratio.

    The financial sector is sound and risks to financial stability have substantially diminished as the CBCS advances its reform agenda. Banks are highly liquid and adequately capitalized and systemic risks are contained. Near-term risks to financial stability have substantially diminished with the agreement for a controlled wind-down of ENNIA and the start of the restructuring process, as well as the CBCS’s continued improvements in supervision, regulation, and governance. Staff welcomes CBCS’s initiatives to establish a financial stability committee, further refine stress-testing, and enhance crisis management capacities, including lender of last resort and a deposit insurance scheme.

    Table 1. Curaçao: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2020–25

    (Percent of GDP unless otherwise indicated)

     

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    Prel.

    Prel.

    Prel.

    Prel.

    Proj.

    Real Economy

    Real GDP (percent change)

    -18.0

    4.2

    7.9

    4.2

    4.5

    3.5

    CPI (12-month average, percent change)

    2.2

    3.8

    7.4

    3.5

    3.2

    2.4

    CPI (end of period, percent change)

    2.2

    4.8

    8.4

    3.1

    3.2

    2.4

    GDP deflator (percent change)

    2.2

    3.8

    4.0

    3.5

    3.2

    2.4

    Unemployment rate (percent) 1/

    13.1

    13.5

    7.2

    7.0

    6.9

    6.6

    Central Government Finances 2/

    Net operating (current) balance

    -15.0

    -10.6

    0.7

    0.6

    0.0

    0.5

    Primary balance

    -13.2

    -8.8

    2.0

    2.5

    2.0

    1.9

    Overall balance

    -14.5

    -10.0

    1.0

    1.3

    0.1

    0.5

    Central government debt 3/

    87.1

    90.3

    81.6

    70.8

    65.4

    61.1

    General Government Finances 2, 4/

    Overall balance

    -15.7

    -10.4

    0.3

    0.9

    -0.3

    -0.1

    Balance of Payments

    Current account

    -27.2

    -18.6

    -26.8

    -19.7

    -17.9

    -16.5

    Goods trade balance

    -37.0

    -41.6

    -47.9

    -38.3

    -40.4

    -39.9

       Exports of goods

    10.7

    12.5

    18.0

    16.9

    16.5

    16.2

       Imports of goods

    47.7

    54.1

    65.9

    55.2

    56.9

    56.1

    Service balance

    9.6

    21.7

    20.5

    18.4

    22.6

    23.7

       Exports of services

    29.3

    37.2

    48.6

    46.6

    50.3

    51.3

       Imports of services

    19.7

    15.6

    28.1

    28.2

    27.7

    27.6

    External debt

    197.3

    194.8

    180.9

    177.1

    169.1

    164.0

    Memorandum Items

    Nominal GDP (millions of U.S. dollars)

    2,534

    2,740

    3,075

    3,318

    3,578

    3,789

    Per capita GDP (U.S. dollars)

    16,492

    18,135

    20,648

    22,160

    23,775

    25,065

    Credit to non-government sectors (percent change)

    0.1

    -9.7

    3.2

    2.5

    …

    …

    Sources: The Curaçao authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections.

    1/ Staff understands that the unemployment rate of 7.0 percent published in the 2023 Census data is not comparable to the historically published unemployment rates from the labor force survey by the Curacao Bureau of Statistics. As such, staff estimated the unemployment rate and overall labor force for the period of 2012 to 2022. Staff understands that the Curacao Bureau of Statistics intends to revise the historical series in the near future.

    2/ Defined as balance sheet liabilities of the central government except equities. Includes central government liabilities to the social security funds.

    3/ Budgetary central government consolidated with the social security fund (SVB).

    4/ The latest available datapoint is as of 2018. Values for 2019-2023 are IMF staff estimates based on BOP flow data.

     

     

    Table 2. Sint Maarten: Selected Economic Indicators 2020–25

    (Percent of GDP unless otherwise indicated)

     

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    Est.

    Est.

    Est.

    Est.

    Proj.

    Real Economy

     

    		    

    Real GDP (percent change) 1/

    -20.4

    7.1

    13.9

    3.5

    2.7

    3.0

    CPI (12-month average, percent change)

    0.7

    2.8

    3.6

    2.1

    2.5

    2.3

    Unemployment rate (percent) 2/

    16.9

    10.8

    9.9

    8.6

    8.5

    8.2
       

    Government Finances

     

    		    

    Primary balance excl. Trust Fund operations 3/

    -8.7

    -5.4

    -0.6

    1.5

    0.9

    0.9

    Current balance (Authorities’ definition) 4/

    -9.6

    -6.3

    -1.5

    0.5

    -0.1

    0.0

    Overall balance excl. TF operations

    -9.3

    -5.9

    -1.1

    1.0

    0.2

    0.2

    Central government debt 5/

    56.1

    55.3

    49.3

    49.0

    46.2

    44.1
       

    Balance of Payments

     

    		    

    Current account

    -25.5

    -24.6

    -3.9

    -7.5

    -7.8

    -3.0

    Goods trade balance

    -40.7

    -49.8

    -59.2

    -59.3

    -62.4

    -60.5

       Exports of goods

    11.8

    11.4

    14.1

    14.8

    13.1

    11.2

       Imports of goods

    52.4

    61.2

    73.2

    74.1

    75.5

    71.7

    Service balance

    20.2

    33.1

    62.8

    60.3

    62.6

    65.2

       Exports of services

    34.4

    51.0

    78.7

    81.4

    81.5

    83.9

       Imports of services

    14.3

    17.9

    15.9

    21.1

    18.9

    18.7

    External debt 6/

    274.3

    253.7

    213.6

    206.3

    200.8

    194.0
       

    Memorandum Items

    		    

    Nominal GDP (millions of U.S. dollars)

    1,141

    1,268

    1,479

    1,563

    1,645

    1,733

    Per capita GDP (U.S. dollars)

    26,796

    29,646

    34,437

    36,088

    37,570

    39,160

    Credit to non-gov. sectors (percent change)

    2.4

    1.3

    4.5

    1.0

    …

    …
               

       Sources:

    		            

       1/ Central Bank of Curacao and Sint Maarten and IMF staff estimates.

    		            

       2/ The size of the 2022 labor force reported by the 2023 Census was adjusted to ensure consistency with the reported total population.

       3/ Excludes Trust Fund (TF) grants and TF-financed special projects.

    		  

       4/ Revenue excl. grants minus interest income, current expenditure and depreciation of fixed assets.

    		  

       5/ The stock of debt in 2018 is based on financial statements. Values in subsequent years are staff’s estimates and are higher than the values under authorities’ definition in quarterly fiscal reports.

       6/ The latest available datapoint is as of 2018. Values for 2019-2022 are IMF staff estimates based on BOP flow data.

    [1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

    [2] The Executive Board takes decisions under its lapse-of-time-procedure when the Board agrees that a proposal can be considered without convening formal discussions.

    [3] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Reah Sy

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/17/pr-24330-curacao-and-sint-maarten-imf-board-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation-discussions

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Maksim Liksutov: the first carriages of the latest Russian train “White Gyrfalcon” (Bely Krechet) will depart for Saint Petersburg on the HSR by 2028

    Source: Moscow Metro

    Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin presented a model of the latest domestic train “White Gyrfalcon” (Bely Krechet) for the high-speed rail line Moscow — Saint Petersburg, a project initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, at the “Manezh Station: Moscow Transport 2030” exhibition. The train will reach speeds of up to 400 km/h.

    Latest domestic train “White Gyrfalcon”. Moscow Metro.

    During the presentation at Manezh, an agreement was signed for the delivery of 41 Russian trains for the high-speed rail line HSR-1 “Moscow – Tver – Veliky Novgorod – Saint Petersburg.”

    The ceremony saw attendance from Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Vitaly Saveliev, Deputy Transport Minister Alexey Shilo, Deputy Mayor of Moscow for Transport Maksim Liksutov, General Director of Russian Railways JSC (RZD) Oleg Belozerov, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of Sberbank Alexander Vedyakhin, General Director of HSR Two Capitals LLC Oleg Toni, General Director of GTLK JSC Evgeny Ditrikh, General Director of Sinara Group JSC Viktor Lesh, and Anatoly Gavrilenko, General Director of Leader CJSC – the company organizing the financing for the project through non-state pension funds.

    Inside the latest domestic train “White Gyrfalcon”. Moscow Metro.

    The innovative Russian rolling stock meets the highest safety and comfort standards. All key components are manufactured in Russia, with assembly and commissioning taking place at the Ural Locomotives plant in Sverdlovsk Oblast.

    According to Deputy Mayor of Moscow for Transport Maksim Liksutov, the domestic trains are both safe and comfortable. Each train consists of 8 carriages with several service classes. The train ride to Saint Petersburg will be nearly twice as fast as the Sapsan, taking only 2 hours and 15 minutes. The first carriages will depart for Saint Petersburg in 2028.

    Travel time between Moscow and Tver will be 39 minutes, between Saint Petersburg and Veliky Novgorod — 29 minutes. From Zelenograd to central Moscow, the journey will take just 14 minutes.

    The latest domestic train “White Gyrfalcon”. Moscow Metro.

    “On behalf of Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, we have presented a unique transportation exhibit at the Manezh Central Exhibition Hall. A part of the exhibition is dedicated to President Vladimir Putin’s project — HSR-1. The first carriages of the latest ‘White Gyrfalcon’ train will depart for Saint Petersburg on the HSR in 2028. The main design solutions for creating Russia’s first high-speed train HSR-1 were developed in Moscow. Some components for the high-speed trains will be produced by Moscow enterprises. The lifespan of the trains is 30 years, during which the manufacturer will be responsible under a life cycle contract,” said Maksim Liksutov.

    Along with the HSR train model, visitors at Manezh Square can see the newest “Ivolga 4.0” trains, the “Moscow-2024” metro carriage, and the updated “Kamaz” electric bus. The internal exhibition features a multimedia HSR train where visitors can take a virtual journey along the high-speed rail route and explore the landmarks of the cities along the way.

    The “Manezh Station: Moscow Transport 2030” exhibition, where the model is featured, is part of the forum-festival “Future Territory: Moscow 2030” and has become the most visited in Manezh’s history. Admission is free, and the exhibition runs until September 8 at the Manezh Central Exhibition Hall.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Paid Inactivity – PayPal Introduces Fees on Inactive Accounts of Russians

    MIL OSI Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Mainfin Bank –

    When will PayPal charge users a fee?

    PayPal’s updated user agreement will go into effect on October 7th – the platform will charge fees to inactive accounts according to the following terms:

    there have been no withdrawal transactions on the wallet in the last year; the account balance is positive – the amount and currency do not matter; the commission will be 3.5 thousand rubles per year or the total balance, if the amount on the balance is less; the commission will be withheld for the extension of service; if the user does not agree with the updated terms, the wallet must be closed before October 7.

    Inactive clients of the platform, from whom a commission will be withheld, also include persons who have not entered their profile for a year – the new rules will affect not only Russians, but also users from other countries.

    Why did PayPal suspend work with Russian clients?

    PayPal’s departure from the Russian Federation became known in early March 2022 – then, against the backdrop of the beginning of the Cold War and the sanctions imposed by the United States, the company suspended operations in the country, promising users time to withdraw funds. Now, registration of new clients from Russia is unavailable on the platform, and services for receiving and sending payments are closed for compatriots.

    “The departure of PayPal from Russia was a blow to freelancers and small businesses working with foreign partners. Russians also lost the ability to pay for purchases in a number of foreign stores, such as Steam and PS Store,” the expert noted.

    Although PayPal promised Russians the ability to withdraw funds from wallets, access to the payment system’s website was closed immediately after the announcement of its withdrawal from the country – no instructions on how to withdraw money from the balance were provided either. The service continues to operate in more than 200 countries around the world, serving over 300 million active clients.

    12:00 09/24/2024

    Source:

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    http://mainfin.ru/news/paid-inactivity-paypal-introduces-commissions-on-inactive-accounts-of-Russians

    EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and or sentence structure not be perfect.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Treats, performances and sports games: how the festival “Summer in Moscow. Everyone out on the street!” went

    MIL OSI Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Moscow Government – Government of Moscow –

    In the capital ended festival “Summer in Moscow. Everyone out on the street!”. 600 entertainment venues were organized for city residents and tourists, including at the festival sites of “Moscow Seasons”. Visitors bought 35 thousand portions of various treats and 16 thousand liters of soft drinks. During the festival, souvenir shops and shopping chalets sold about 11 thousand memorable gifts, jewelry and decorative items. This was reported by the capital’s Department of Trade and Services.

    Guests especially loved craft chocolate, hand-made ice cream and pine cone jam. At each site, you could try meat and fish dishes cooked on the grill, and national culinary delicacies from vendors from all over the country.

    From the world of gadgets to reality

    In the summer, Muscovites attended concerts and theatrical performances by groups from all over Russia. Thousands of master classes were held at the venues of the festival “Summer in Moscow. Everyone out on the street!”, where adults and children made home decor, toys, jewelry and fashion accessories, as well as culinary masterpieces with the help of experienced chefs. Young guests attended programming, English and archeology classes, and drawing lessons with professional teachers. Plein airs were very popular.

    More than 20 Moscow Seasons venues hosted fun starts, sports and board games, training sessions, as well as dance lessons, Zumba, yoga and stretching classes. In addition, Muscovites took part in transformation games that helped them return from the world of gadgets to reality, understand their goals and find ways to achieve them.

    Dancing to the gramophone and games from childhood

    At the creative evenings, visitors listened to poems and songs, discussed the works of classics, legendary plays and books, watched performances by contemporary artists. Lectures and creative classes with representatives of the fashion industry, writers and theater community were held at the Moscow Seasons venues.

    On Nikitsky Boulevard, an open-air exhibition and art market were held for 100 days. An exhibition of paintings by young artists from the Moscow Exhibition Halls association was organized for city residents and tourists, and master classes on painting techniques and handicrafts were held.

    The guests of the festival remembered the “Summer in Moscow. Everyone out on the street!” theme nights with gramophone music at the vintage market on Chistye Prudy, as well as the championship of the childhood game “Rock, Paper, Scissors”, in which residents of all Moscow districts took part.

    More information about the activities of the Department of Trade and Services is available in the official telegram channel.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    http://vvv.mos.ru/nevs/item/144354073/

    EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and or sentence structure not be perfect.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Completes Seventh Review Under the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement for Suriname

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 18, 2024

    • The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund completed the seventh review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Suriname, allowing for an immediate purchase equivalent to SDR 46.7 million (about USD 63 million) of which SDR 19.1 million or about USD 25.8 million would be for budget support.
    • The authorities’ commitment to maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies and implementing difficult reforms are yielding positive results: the economy is growing, inflation is coming down, international bond spreads are at record lows, and investor confidence is returning.
    • Building on the progress made thus far under the program, the authorities should entrench fiscal discipline, particularly in the run up to the elections while protecting the poor and vulnerable. Persevering with structural reforms to strengthen institutions and address governance weaknesses is also critical.

    Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the seventh review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Suriname. The completion of the review allows the authorities to draw the equivalent of SDR 46.7 million (about USD 63 million), bringing total program disbursement to SDR 337.1 million (about USD 455 million). In completing the review, the Executive Board approved the authorities’ request for a waiver of non-observance of the end-June 2024 performance criteria on the central government primary balance based on the corrective actions the authorities have already taken.

    Suriname is implementing an ambitious economic reform agenda to restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, while laying the foundations for strong and more inclusive growth. The program includes policies to restore fiscal and debt sustainability, protect the poor and vulnerable, upgrade the monetary and exchange rate policy framework, address banking sector vulnerabilities, and advance the anti-corruption and governance reform agenda. These policies are supported by the EFF arrangement, which was approved by the Executive Board on December 22, 2021 (see Press Release No. 21/400), in an amount equivalent to SDR 472.8 million (366.8 percent of quota).

    Following the Executive Board discussion on Suriname, Mr. Kenji Okamura, Deputy Managing Director, and Acting Chair, issued the following statement:

    “The authorities’ reforms under the EFF-supported program are being increasingly reflected in macroeconomic stability and improving investor confidence. The economy is growing, inflation is declining, international bond spreads have reached historic lows, and donor support is increasing.

    “The near-term priority is to reinforce the planned fiscal consolidation and protect the vulnerable from the burden of the adjustment. Phasing out electricity subsidies and strengthening tax administration will help create fiscal space for higher social assistance and infrastructure spending. Fully implementing the recently finalized social assistance reform plan will make social programs more efficient and effective. Strengthening commitment controls and addressing weaknesses in cash management will contain public spending and prevent accumulation of supplier arrears. 

    “The debt restructuring process is nearing completion. Bilateral agreements with all official creditors and most commercial creditors have been achieved. Domestic debt arrears have been cleared. 

    “A tight monetary policy is supporting disinflation. Implementing the recently-finalized plan for central bank recapitalization will strengthen the central bank’s operational and financial autonomy. The authorities’ demonstrated commitment to a flexible, market-determined exchange rate is supporting international reserve accumulation. Timely implementation of recapitalization plans for commercial banks that do not meet regulatory capital requirements will bolster financial sector resilience.

    “The authorities should persevere with their ambitious structural reform agenda to strengthen institutions, address governance weaknesses, build climate resilience, and improve data quality. This important work will continue to be supported by capacity development from the Fund and other development partners.”

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Meera Louis

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/18/pr-24334-suriname-imf-completes-seventh-review-under-the-eff-arrangement

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Navigating Through Financial Turbulences with Preparedness, Competence, and Confidence

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    OeNB | SUERF | Joint Vienna Institute | Yale Program on Financial Stability Conference on Building Resilience and Managing Financial Crises
    Vienna, Austria
    Tobias Adrian, IMF Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department

    September 18, 2024

    It is a great pleasure to speak to you today on a policy area at the forefront of our work at the IMF in helping our members prepare for, and deal with, financial instability. I will provide a snapshot of the progress that has been made and what remains to be done to deal effectively with bank runs and bank failures. I will also explain what we are doing at the IMF to help our membership make further progress in this critical area.

    The bank failures in 2023 in the US and Switzerland presented the most significant test since the global financial crisis of the reforms taken collectively to end “too-big-to-fail.” It’s not often that policymakers get to field test plans for dealing with failing systemic banks, let alone one for a global systemically important bank (G-SIB).

    In our view, the failures of Credit Suisse in Switzerland and SVB, Signature, and First Republic in the US, showed that while significant progress has been made, further progress is still required to deliver on the too-big-to-fail reform agenda and reduce the risk that taxpayers bail out shareholders and creditors when banks fail.

    On the one hand, the actions the authorities took last year successfully avoided deeper financial turmoil. In addition, unlike many of the failures during the global financial crisis, significant losses were shared with the shareholders and some creditors of the failed banks. However, taxpayers were once again on the hook as extensive public support was used to protect more than just the insured depositors of failed banks.

    In Switzerland, amid a massive creditor run, the Credit Suisse acquisition was backed by a government guarantee and liquidity facilities nearly equal to a quarter of Swiss economic output. While the public support was ultimately recovered, it entailed very significant contingent fiscal risk, and created a larger, more systemic bank. Indeed, UBS now has the largest ratio of assets to home country GDP of any individual G-SIB.

    The use of standing resolution powers to transfer ownership of Credit Suisse, after bailing in shareholders and creditors, rather than relying on emergency legislation to effect a merger, would have fully wiped out the equity of Credit Suisse shareholders and limited the need for public support.

    What lessons have we learnt?

    Domestic and international authorities have published extensively on the lessons learnt and we share many of the conclusions. The key points I would highlight include:

    The importance of intrusive supervision and early intervention. Credit Suisse depositors lost confidence after prolonged governance and risk management failures. The banks which failed in the US pursued risky business strategies and very rapid growth with inadequate risk management. Supervisors in both jurisdictions should have acted faster and been more assertive and conclusive. Policymakers need to empower supervisors with both the ability and the will to act.

    Even relatively small banks can prove systemic. A lesson from many past crises, including the US bank failures in 2023, is that you can’t always judge in advance which banking problems will become systemic. In many countries, including the US and Switzerland, we think authorities should do more to be ready for crises affecting their medium-sized banks. Banking supervisory and resolution authorities should ensure that sufficient recovery and resolution planning takes place across the banking sector as a whole. This should include, on a proportional basis, banks that may not be systemic in all circumstances, but that could certainly be systemic in some.

    Central banks should be prepared to provide extensive liquidity support during a crisis. Banks should be familiar with the central bank’s operations and facilities and be ready to use them at short notice. Who can access central bank lending is also an important question as liquidity risks have partially moved away from the usual central bank counterparties. While widening the counterparty list could help central banks intervene more broadly in a crisis, it runs the risk of rewarding regulatory arbitrage, giving raise to difficult trade-offs and requiring careful assessment. Central banks may well have to lend against illiquid collateral in a crisis. In that context, prepositioning would help to ensure operational preparedness especially to ascertain the legal claim on the collateral and to calibrate appropriate haircuts. An open question is whether the prepositioning should be voluntary or required, and how much counterparties should preposition if required. The benefits of enhanced lending “fire power” would have to be compared with the cost that prepositioning entails for the banks and the costs to the central bank, including risks to its balance sheet. If propositioning is directly linked with risk (e.g., a percentage of uninsured deposit), the impact on intermediation and the interaction with other prudential regulation would need to be carefully assessed.

    Resolution plans and regimes need sufficient flexibility. We very much support the conclusion of the Financial Stability Board’s lessons learned report that resolution authorities need to “better operationalize a range of resolution options for different circumstances.” Every bank failure presents different challenges and resolution authorities need to be flexible enough to deal with the actual crisis that presents itself, balancing risks to financial stability with those to taxpayers. Authorities should make sure that they carefully balance rules versus discretion and detailed planning versus optionality in designing their resolution regimes. The rapid sale of Credit Suisse should prompt us to think about what would be needed for the successful sale in resolution of even the largest banking groups, at least in some circumstances.

    Strikingly, every one of the cases I mentioned from Spring 2023, involved the transfer of the failing bank’s business lines to an acquiring bank, even where this had not been the focus of prior resolution planning. Two of the US cases also involved the intermediate step of transfer to bridge banks. So, we have timely and high-profile reminders that transfer powers should be a core part of the resolution toolkit and should be duly planned for and readily implementable, including at short notice.

    Cooperation and effective implementation of resolution powers across borders is imperative. One notable feature of last year’s bank failures was the degree of international cooperation between regulators and resolution authorities in their handling of these cases. The Swiss authorities worked intensively with international counterparts to prepare for a resolution of Credit Suisse, which would have needed supportive actions from the supervisors and resolution authorities responsible for Credit Suisse’s main foreign operations, including in the US, UK, and EU. SVB’s UK subsidiary was resolved by the Bank of England, ultimately being sold to HSBC, and the FSB report highlights that the UK relied on the deep relationships built over the years with their US counterparts to help implement this. This cooperation seems to have begun earlier and worked a lot better than in similar cases during the global financial crisis, such as the failure of Lehman Brothers.

    That experience highlights how global financial stability depends on authorities being able to work together across borders and to build in peacetime the routine contacts and good understanding ex ante of what each authority would be likely to do to make that possible. However, there was a wrinkle in this otherwise positive experience, as highlighted in the Financial Stability Board’s report on the bank failures, which relates to the importance of the US securities markets to most major foreign banks. Credit Suisse and most other major banks have debt securities issued in US dollars and/or under New York law, the holders of which may incur losses in a resolution. As a recent report of the Financial Stability Board highlighted, there remain significant open questions about how disclosure and other US securities legal requirements would be applied in the circumstances where securities issued in the US are envisaged to be converted in a short period, for example, over a resolution weekend. This is an important issue where further work is needed and this is being taken forward by the Financial Stability Board, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and others.

    Finally, effective deposit insurance regimes are crucial. Banks typically fail when creditors lose confidence, even before their balance sheet reflects potential losses. Authorities in many countries need to strengthen deposit insurance regimes. New technology like 24/7 payments, mobile banking, and social media have accelerated deposit runs. Last year’s failures followed rapid deposit withdrawals, and deposit insurers and other authorities should be ready and able to act more quickly than many currently can.

    IMF staff are working actively to support efforts in member countries to strengthen their supervision, resolution, liquidity assistance, and deposit insurance frameworks including through FSAPs and technical assistance. In the US, we have seen lessons learned reports and policy proposals from many of the US banking authorities, several of which pick up on issues and recommendations that were discussed in the IMF’s assessment of the US financial sector (“FSAP”) in 2020. Our next FSAPs for Switzerland and the Euro Area will be published next year, and as we start work on that we will be taking a close look at the authorities’ and the FSB’s findings and will likely reiterate many of our previous findings, including on strengthening deposit insurance regimes. We are also contributing to policy formulation at the international level, including a recently announced review of the international deposit insurance standard, and by earlier this year hosting with the Financial Stability Board a workshop for policymakers on the use of transfer powers in resolution.

    The bottom line is that progress has been made, but there is still further to go in putting an end to too-big-to-fail. Most of the areas where further progress is needed are already well known; last year’s bank failures should provide the impetus for policymakers to cover the remaining ground.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER:

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/16/sp091824-navigating-through-financial-turbulences-with-preparedness-competence-and-confidence

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Bhutan

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 19, 2024

    Washington, DC: On September 9, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Bhutan[1].

    During the past decade Bhutan adeptly balanced economic growth and poverty reduction with environmental sustainability. Sustained growth increased incomes, lifting living conditions and eliminating extreme monetary poverty by 2022. Bhutan has a long history of leading environmental conservation and climate change action and is committed to remaining carbon neutral. While the pandemic hindered economic development, strong policies limited its health impact.

    Growth remained subdued during 2023. Large-scale emigration and policies to curb imports hindered a more robust recovery. Inflation accelerated in the second half of 2023, driven by wage increases in the public sector. The current account deficit (CAD) widened to around 30 percent of GDP driven by a large investment in crypto assets mining and the slow recovery in tourism. The fiscal deficit narrowed but remained high and non-hydro debt nearly doubled from pre-pandemic levels.

    Boosted by hydro-power projects and grant-financed capital investment, growth is projected to accelerate over the medium term, averaging 6.3 percent of GDP, but to remain volatile. A gradual easing of inflation towards 4 percent is expected as the impact of wage increase subside. The CAD is expected to narrow, supported by higher electricity exports due to the commissioning of new hydropower plants, a continued recovery in tourism, and crypto assets exports. Securing diverse sources of growth that provide quality employment opportunities while preserving Bhutan’s commitment to environmental sustainability remains a key medium‑term challenge.

    Uncertainty remains elevated with the balance of risks tilted to the downside. Domestic risks include slippages on implementation of the goods and services tax, delays in hydropower projects, and fiscal risks from the materialization of contingent liabilities in the financial sector. External risks include volatile commodity prices—particularly of fuel—and a global slowdown that could hinder non-hydro exports. Bhutan is vulnerable to climate change, given the importance of hydroelectricity and agriculture. Crypto mining entails significant upside and downside risks given their price volatility. Overall, the large external debt and persistent CADs—while supporting growth-enhancing investments and financed by development partners—are nonetheless a source of vulnerability. On the upside, the pursuit of stronger‑than-envisaged fiscal consolidation would accelerate the pace at which fiscal and external buffers are rebuilt.

    Executive Board Assessment[2]

    Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They commended Bhutan’s significant reduction in poverty and inequality during the last decade. Directors welcomed that growth is expected to accelerate over the medium term, boosted by a large hydroproject, higher capital spending, and the slowdown of emigration. Noting downside risks to the outlook, they underscored that tighter fiscal and monetary policies are needed to support the peg, reduce domestic and external imbalances, and rebuild buffers; while carefully managing potential risks stemming from crypto assets operations is also needed. Directors called for structural reforms to foster high-quality jobs in the private sector and diversify the economy, and commended the authorities’ commitment to ecological conservation and climate change action. They noted that continued support from the Fund’s capacity development is important.

    Directors stressed that a gradual and sustained fiscal consolidation, based on revenue mobilization and spending restraint, is essential to rebuild buffers and preserve debt sustainability. They welcomed the authorities’ commitment to a timely implementation of the Goods and Services Tax and to undertaking additional tax and revenue administration measures to achieve the planned fiscal consolidation. Directors recommended strengthening public financial management, public investment management, and domestic debt management.

    Directors underscored that monetary policy needs to be tightened in tandem with fiscal policy to ease balance-of-payment pressures and rebuild reserves. They stressed the need for a well-functioning domestic liquidity management framework to support the monetary policy operation function. Directors encouraged the authorities to phase out existing exchange restrictions once conditions allow. They noted the need to address remaining financial sector vulnerabilities, particularly given the expiration of COVID-related support measures. In this context, they welcomed the new guidelines and regulations to address credit quality and the progress in moving toward risk-based supervision. Directors recommended further enhancing the AML/CFT framework. 

    Directors called for structural reforms to diversify the economy and foster the creation of private sector jobs for high-skilled workers. They recommended improving the business environment, strengthening human capital accumulation, and improving active labor market policies. Directors welcomed efforts toward a new FDI policy, which relaxes some restrictions, including access to foreign currency, local employment requirements, and caps on foreign ownership. They also welcomed the improvements in data quality and called for further progress in this area.

    Directors stressed the need to further strengthen public sector governance, including the Royal Monetary Authority’s (RMA) governance framework and independence as well as the transparency in the operations of state-owned enterprises. Noting the need to mitigate the potential risks stemming from crypto asset operations, they welcomed RMA’s efforts to strengthen its reserve management strategy and the forthcoming audited financial statements of crypto-mining operations.

    Bhutan: Selected Economic Indicators, 2018/19-2028/29

    2018/19

    2019/20

    2020/21

    2021/22

    2022/23

    2023/24

    2024/25

    2025/26

    2026/27

    2027/28

    2028/29

    Act.

    Act.

    Act.

    Act.

    		  

    Projections
                       

     

    (In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

    National Accounts

    		                

    Nominal GDP (in millions of ngultrums) 1/

    184,660

    187,378

    193,386

    216,239

    		  

    237,322

    261,026

    292,837

    325,812

    357,677

    393,607

    438,906

    Real GDP growth (percent change) 1/

    4.6

    -2.5

    -3.3

    4.8

    		  

    5.0

    5.2

    7.2

    6.4

    5.2

    5.6

    7.2

     

    Prices

    Consumer prices (EoP; percent change)

    2.8

    4.5

    7.4

    6.5

    3.9

    4.8

    4.7

    4.4

    4.0

    4.0

    4.0

    Consumer prices (avg; percent change)

    2.8

    3.0

    8.2

    5.9

    4.6

    4.6

    4.7

    4.5

    4.2

    4.0

    4.0

    GDP deflator (percent change)

    2.2

    4.0

    6.7

    6.7

    4.5

    4.6

    4.6

    4.6

    4.4

    4.2

    4.1

     

    General Government Accounts

    Total revenue and grants

    22.8

    29.1

    30.9

    25.1

    24.2

    24.2

    28.1

    31.5

    30.1

    28.2

    27.3

    Domestic revenue

    18.8

    19.3

    18.5

    18.1

    18.9

    20.3

    19.3

    20.7

    20.7

    20.8

    22.4

    Tax revenue

    14.7

    12.2

    10.7

    12.0

    13.3

    13.4

    14.0

    14.4

    14.8

    14.8

    15.2

    Non-tax revenue

    4.1

    7.2

    7.9

    6.1

    5.6

    6.9

    5.4

    6.3

    5.9

    6.0

    7.3

    Foreign grants

    5.5

    8.5

    7.5

    6.2

    6.0

    3.9

    8.8

    10.8

    9.4

    7.4

    4.9

    Internal and other receipts

    -1.6

    1.3

    4.9

    0.9

    -0.7

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    Total expenditure 2/

    24.2

    30.9

    36.6

    32.1

    29.0

    28.8

    32.5

    34.2

    33.4

    32.1

    32.2

    Current expenditure

    15.0

    19.0

    22.5

    15.9

    14.9

    17.1

    17.0

    17.8

    18.7

    18.8

    19.4

    Capital expenditure

    8.8

    11.8

    14.3

    16.1

    14.2

    11.8

    15.5

    16.4

    14.8

    13.3

    12.8

    Primary expenditure 2/

    23.4

    30.5

    35.7

    30.6

    27.3

    27.2

    30.5

    31.4

    29.9

    28.3

    27.7

    Primary balance

    -0.6

    -1.4

    -4.8

    -5.5

    -3.1

    -3.0

    -2.4

    0.1

    0.2

    -0.1

    -0.4

    Overall balance

    -1.5

    -1.8

    -5.8

    -7.0

    -4.8

    -4.6

    -4.4

    -2.7

    -3.3

    -3.9

    -4.8

    General government debt 3/

    100

    115

    123

    117

    116

    114

    109

    123

    122

    119

    130

    Domestic

    3

    1

    9

    11

    13

    14

    15

    12

    11

    13

    13

    External

    97

    114

    114

    106

    103

    100

    94

    111

    111

    106

    117
                       

    Monetary Sector

     

    		              

    Broad money (M2) growth (percent change)

    5.6

    19.3

    24.4

    9.4

    9.8

    12.6

    13.2

    12.3

    13.0

    12.2

    11.5

    Private credit growth (percent change)

    20.5

    13.3

    6.5

    10.8

    19.3

    9.1

    11.2

    11.1

    11.5

    10.0

    10.2

    Balance of Payments

    Current account balance

    -19.2

    -14.8

    -11.2

    -28.1

    -34.4

    -17.7

    -32.1

    -20.5

    -12.5

    -17.1

    -14.1

    Goods balance

    -15.3

    -12.1

    -6.4

    -21.1

    -25.7

    -12.9

    -26.9

    -15.0

    -6.1

    -10.1

    -8.8

    Hydropower exports

    6.0

    12.1

    13.5

    11.0

    8.7

    6.3

    8.2

    9.5

    9.1

    10.4

    11.9

    Non-hydropower exports

    17.3

    13.0

    13.9

    15.8

    14.9

    15.7

    15.9

    15.8

    17.1

    18.1

    18.8

    Imports of goods

    38.6

    37.1

    33.9

    47.9

    		  

    49.2

    40.2

    55.6

    52.4

    45.6

    42.1

    42.2

    Services balance

    -1.9

    -3.5

    -4.4

    -6.5

    		  

    -6.7

    -3.7

    -2.8

    -3.6

    -3.8

    -3.6

    -3.0

    Primary balance

    -8.4

    -5.7

    -5.7

    -5.5

    -5.0

    -5.6

    -4.5

    -4.2

    -4.6

    -4.9

    -4.8

    Secondary balance

    6.5

    6.6

    5.4

    5.1

    2.9

    4.5

    2.1

    2.2

    2.0

    1.6

    2.5

    Capital account balance

    8.0

    7.1

    3.8

    3.6

    4.1

    3.1

    8.2

    9.8

    8.6

    6.6

    2.9

    Financial account balance

    -4.5

    -15.1

    -9.1

    -8.2

    -10.7

    -15.9

    -24.0

    -20.2

    -19.2

    -13.6

    -13.6

    Net errors and emissions

    10.4

    5.4

    -4.8

    1.2

    11.8

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    Overall balance

    3.7

    12.9

    -3.0

    -15.1

    -7.8

    1.2

    0.1

    9.4

    15.3

    3.2

    2.5

    Gross official reserves (in USD millions)

    1065

    1344

    1332

    840

    574

    606

    604

    969

    1616.3

    1758.9

    1878.7

    (In months of imports)

    12.4

    17.5

    17.9

    7.6

    4.8

    5.8

    3.7

    5.7

    10.0

    10.8

    10.3

    (In months of goods and services imports)

    10.1

    14.2

    15.6

    6.6

    3.9

    4.6

    3.2

    4.8

    8.1

    8.6

    8.4
     

    Memorandum Items

    Hydropower exports growth rate 4/

    -1.2

    105.6

    15.8

    -9.4

    -13.2

    -20.7

    46.2

    30.4

    4.5

    26.1

    27.3

    Non-hydropower exports growth rate 4/

    13.7

    -24.1

    11.0

    26.8

    3.2

    16.2

    13.5

    10.7

    18.8

    16.5

    16.0

    Hydropower good imports 4/

    -15.3

    -3.5

    -21.2

    -11.6

    14.9

    50.8

    18.4

    61.1

    14.0

    3.3

    -19.1

    Non-hydropower good imports 4/

    10.3

    -2.3

    -4.3

    63.8

    12.7

    -13.0

    58.1

    1.5

    -6.1

    1.4

    15.2

    Population in million (eop)

    0.7

    0.7

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    External financing gap in US million

    …

    …

    …

    …

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    		  

    [1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

    [2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the

    views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation

    of any qualifiers used in summing up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Pemba Sherpa

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/19/pr-24336-bhutan-imf-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Moscow Metro Embraces Innovation: QR Code Payment Now Available at Turnstiles

    Source: Moscow Metro

    Moscow’s transportation system is taking a leap forward with the launch of QR code payment via the Faster Payment’s System (FPS) at Metro and Moscow Central Circle (MCC) turnstiles. This innovative service, powered by the Bank of Russia, is also being implemented at 1,700 ticket vending machines across the city.

    Moscow Metro QR code-ready.

    The FPS is already integrated into all regular river transport turnstiles and ground transport validators. This is a convenient and modern service. Now, this innovative payment method is available at ticket booths and vending machines, – said Maksim Liksutov, Moscow’s Deputy Mayor for Transport and Industry.

    To utilize QR code payment, passengers need to generate a QR code in the Moscow Metro app and hold their smartphone screen up to the scanner at the turnstile. The phone should be held 20-25 cm away from the scanner, at a 45-degree angle, with the active QR code facing the scanner. A green signal will appear on the turnstile when the payment is successful.

    Additionally, passengers registered in the mobile app and loyalty program are eligible for a special promotion. They will receive cashback for each payment made through the FPS, credited to their account within one minute.

    This new payment option offers Moscow residents a convenient, modern, and secure way to pay for their transportation needs.

    The FPS was first launched in June 2023 in the ticket offices of all open stations of the Big Circle Line (BCL).

    The Moscow Transport news channel https://t.me/DTRoadEn            

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Moscow is ready for the new heating season

    MIL OSI Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Moscow Government – Government of Moscow –

    All utility systems, residential buildings, municipal facilities, equipment and machinery are ready for the autumn-winter period. The Moscow Government has considered the issue of the readiness of the capital’s housing stock and housing and communal facilities for the autumn-winter season of 2024/2025.

    Preparations for the heating season for 74 thousand buildings, including 34.6 thousand residential buildings, 8.4 thousand social facilities and 30.8 thousand economic facilities, were carried out from May to August.

    City services carried out preventive inspections and necessary repairs of engineering systems and equipment of boiler houses, central heating stations, large energy facilities, engineering networks of heat, gas, water and electricity supply.

    The existing power reserves allow for a stable and uninterrupted supply of energy resources to consumers, as well as to meet the needs of promising city programs and infrastructure projects.

    In case of possible failures and damage to utility networks, 1,093 emergency teams, 1,229 units of specialized equipment, as well as backup sources of electricity and heat supply have been prepared.

    The required amount of road cleaning, engineering and other specialized equipment, as well as small mechanization tools, will be used to maintain urban areas and facilities. Snow will be disposed of at 51 stationary snow melting points.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    https://vvv.mos.ru/major/themes/11819050/

    EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and or sentence structure not be perfect.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: A new season of paired exhibitions of “teachers and students” from the HSE School of Design is starting at the HSE ART GALLERY

    MIL OSI Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: State University Higher School of Economics – State University Higher School of Economics –

    The first project of the new season at the HSE ART GALLERY on Pionerka will continue the cycle of paired solo exhibitions of “teachers and students” of the HSE School of Design. This time, the main characters will be the head of the profile “Modern Painting” and its graduates – Vladimir Potapov and Sasha Podgorodskaya.

    The format of double solo exhibitions allows, firstly, to present a cross-section of the most significant works of young authors created during their years of study, and secondly, to compare the perspectives of students and their teachers.

    The title of Vladimir Potapov’s project, “The Duration of Decay,” refers to the artist’s personal exhibition, “The Moment of Decay,” in the Art Ru Agency space in 2011. For him, this was not only his first solo project in Moscow, but also his first attempt to go beyond the classical painting convention of “canvas and oil.” The exhibition allowed him to chart a path and showed prospects for finding practical answers to the question, “Is painting alive today?”

    The various stages of this journey are reflected in the exhibition at HSE ART GALLERY. The works on display belong to different series created by Potapov from 2012 to 2022. This range allows us to cover the author’s wide range of tools and radically different methods that have developed over the course of a decade.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    http://art.hse.ru/gallery/potavov-and-podgorodskaya?roistat_visit=1833079

    EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and or sentence structure not be perfect.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Dmitry Chernyshenko: More than 550 finalists from 36 countries will take part in the final of the International Financial Security Olympiad

    MIL OSI Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Government of the Russian Federation – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

    Dmitry Chernyshenko held a meeting of the organizing committee for the preparation and holding of the International Financial Security Olympiad

    September 24, 2024

    Dmitry Chernyshenko held a meeting of the organizing committee for the preparation and holding of the International Financial Security Olympiad

    September 24, 2024

    Dmitry Chernyshenko held a meeting of the organizing committee for the preparation and holding of the International Financial Security Olympiad

    September 24, 2024

    Previous news Next news

    Dmitry Chernyshenko held a meeting of the organizing committee for the preparation and holding of the International Financial Security Olympiad

    A meeting of the organizing committee for the preparation and holding of the International Financial Security Olympiad was held under the chairmanship of Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko.

    The Director of the Federal Service for Financial Monitoring, Yuri Chikhanchin, also took part in it.

    At the meeting, the program for the final stage of the fourth Olympiad, which will take place from September 30 to October 4 in the federal territory of Sirius, was approved, as well as the composition of the jury and the appeal committee.

    In his opening remarks, Dmitry Chernyshenko noted the expansion of the geography of the participants of the International Financial Security Olympiad. This year, more than 550 finalists from 36 countries will come to the final in the hospitable federal territory of Sirius.

    “Despite the current international situation, we have managed not only to maintain, but also to expand the level of organization and holding of the Olympiad. This year, more than 550 children from 36 countries will come to Sirius; last year, there were 19 countries. I consider it important that the Olympiad participants will not only win, but also receive opportunities to enter the country’s leading universities and employment prospects,” the Deputy Prime Minister emphasized.

    He also recalled that on September 17, a founding conference was held at the site of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and the launch of the International Movement for Financial Security was launched, which united representatives from 36 countries.

    According to Rosfinmonitoring Director Yuri Chikhanchin, schoolchildren, students, representatives of financial intelligence agencies, the business community, and the scientific and educational sphere will meet at the Sirius venues. The final stage program includes more than 40 educational events for schoolchildren and students, including meetings with future employers and career guidance events.

    “The events of the final week of the Olympiad are aimed at achieving educational results, professional development of participants, creating conditions for the formation of a cultural and moral environment based on traditional civilizational values, as well as involving participants in the sports movement. As part of the educational direction, schoolchildren and students will be able not only to demonstrate their knowledge, but also to acquire new competencies in master classes, panel discussions and interactive workshops,” said the director of Rosfinmonitoring.

    Deputy Minister of Science and Higher Education Dmitry Afanasyev shared details of the final stage of the Olympiad and reported on the results of the qualifying stages of the fourth Olympiad, noting that in 2024 the number of participants in the final has increased.

    The program of the final stage of the fourth Olympiad includes a meeting of the Council of the International Network Institute in the field of AML/CFT, the international forum on financial security “Sirius-2024”, “Conversations on equal terms”, a phygital basketball tournament, master classes, panel discussions and a number of other events of educational, professional, cultural and sports orientation.

    The meeting was also attended by Deputy Minister of Education Olga Koludarova, State Secretary – Deputy Head of Rospotrebnadzor Mikhail Orlov, Head of the educational foundation “Talent and Success” Elena Shmeleva, First Deputy Governor of Krasnodar Krai Igor Galas, General Director of ANO “National Priorities” Sofia Malyavina, representatives of the Executive Office of the Government of the Russian Federation, the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation, the Bank of Russia, the International Training and Methodological Center for Financial Monitoring (ITMCFM), PJSC Promsvyazbank and universities of the International Network Institute in the Sphere of AML/CFT.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    http://government.ru/nevs/52784/

    EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and or sentence structure not be perfect.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: The Scientific and Educational Center “Evolution of the Earth” invites everyone to take excursions

    MIL OSI Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Novosibirsk State University – Novosibirsk State University –

    Scientific and Educational Center “Evolution of the Earth” NSU — is a modern complex of exhibition halls, exhibits and interactive systems. The center was created to support scientific, educational and popularizing activities in the field of Earth sciences among the widest audience.

    The exhibition of the center consists of four thematic halls. The first is dedicated to the planet Earth, its structure and cosmic environment – here the guides will tell about the methods by which our planet is studied. In the second hall you will learn about the processes occurring in the depths of the Earth, you will be able to touch pieces of real lava from Mongolia, Iceland and Kamchatka, and also see and hear the process of a volcanic eruption. The evolution of life from the appearance of the first cells to dinosaurs will be told in the third hall. In the fourth hall you can see real native gold and oil, as well as look at the model of the deep-sea bathyscaphe “Mir-1”, with the help of which the bottom of the World Ocean was studied.

    The center currently operates in the format of excursions for organized and group tours. You can sign up for an excursion with a group of friends, the guides will take you through all four thematic halls, tell you many facts and answer any questions. Excursions for NSU students and employees are free.

    You can sign up for a tour by calling (383) 363-42-25 or by email ee@nsu.ru.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    http://vvv.nsu.ru/n/media/nevs/atmosphere/scientific-educational-center-evolution-of-the-earth-invites-everyone-on-excursions-/

    EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and or sentence structure not be perfect.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: The second stage of the first phase of construction of the modern campus of NSU is being prepared for launch

    MIL OSI Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Novosibirsk State University – Novosibirsk State University – Earlier this summer, the complex of buildings of the first stage was successfully put into operation – it includes a new educational building of the NSU SUNC, a leisure center for students and two blocks of dormitories for NSU students and postgraduates. The total area of the first stage was 38 thousand square meters. Construction of a modern campus of NSU is carried out within the framework of the national project “Science and Universities”.

    The new dormitory building is the object of the second stage of the first stage of construction at the expense of the philanthropist with the support of the Foundation for the Development of Social Projects “Perspektiva”. It will become a significant addition to this comfortable infrastructure, connecting with the leisure center by an underground passage. The building project is developed in the uniform architectural style of the NSU campus – facade solutions made of concrete tiles will repeat the appearance of the new student dormitory buildings.

    The total area of the dormitory for students of the NSU SUNC will be about 15 thousand square meters. On 6 floors there will be 2- and 3-bed rooms with a total capacity of 562 people, storage and administrative premises, common leisure rooms and a medical block. Leisure, recreational areas, self-service laundries are provided on each floor.

    — New dormitories for students of the NSU SUNC will allow us to better solve problems related to the accommodation of schoolchildren outside their home, and will ensure the fulfillment of modern requirements for the conditions of stay of children coming to study at the SUNC. The staff of the physics and mathematics school are included in the process of planning and designing new dormitories, and will assist at all stages of the project implementation, — noted the director of the NSU SUNC Lyudmila Nekrasova.

    The construction of the new facility will be carried out on the site of the old building of the NSU SUNC. Its demolition and the start of construction work are scheduled for the end of 2024. The planned date for commissioning of the new dormitory is the second quarter of 2028. The technical customer of the construction will be OOO NDK Group.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    http://www.nsu.ru/n/media/nevs/campus-construction/preparing-for-launch-the-second-stage-of-the-first-stage-construction-of-a-modern-campus-NSU/

    EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and or sentence structure not be perfect.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: NSU to host first international student cybercriminology festival CrimeLab Fest-2024

    MIL OSI Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Novosibirsk State University – Novosibirsk State University –

    On September 27-28, the first international student cybercriminology festival CrimeLab Fest-2024 will be held at NSU. The event will involve 9 student teams: 8 of them represent Russian cities such as Novosibirsk, Barnaul, Krasnoyarsk and Krasnodar, and one combined team, which will include students from Harbin (China). Using cyber simulators, they will compete in investigating simulated situations. The students’ results will be assessed by an authoritative jury, which will include leading Russian experts in the field of forensics. The festival will also include lectures and a round table, where experts and students will discuss the prospects and future of the profession.

    — Several years ago, educational institutions began to request the introduction of modern products at the intersection of IT and forensics into the educational process. This is how the idea of creating cyber simulators appeared, which are based on the idea of a computer game, a quest, but at the same time they incorporate the entire arsenal of forensic tools for investigation, evidence collection, verification of versions, etc. That is, they allow you to simulate the situation of investigating certain types of crimes in a game form. At the moment, 10 such simulators have been developed. Our festival will be the first platform where we will test these simulators in action, — said the head of the CrimeLab project, Doctor of Law, Professor of the Department of Criminal Law, Criminal Procedure and Forensics of NSU Roman Borovskikh.

    The simulators were created by a team of developers from the ANO “Digital Educational Technologies”, which includes NSU graduates. Each simulator simulates the investigation of individual types of crimes, including bribery, murder, fraud, robbery, etc. The user of the simulator has the opportunity to choose not only the type of crime, but also the location. In the future, it is planned to introduce this tool into the educational process and make it part of the curriculum.

    According to Roman Borovskikh, “our task now is to test how this tool works, what the impressions and feedback from students will be, and to understand how these electronic educational tools need to be improved in order to use them in real educational practice.”

    The festival will feature student teams, 3 of which are from out of town, representing Altai State University, Kuban State University and Krasnoyarsk State Agrarian University. Also, one team is international, it is formed by students of Heilongjiang University and NSU. During the competition, the guys will have to demonstrate their knowledge and skills at all stages of the investigation, such as collecting evidence, checking versions, etc., using correct forensic methods, using simulators.

    The teams’ work will be assessed by an expert jury chaired by Igor Mikhailovich Komarov, Doctor of Law, Professor, Head of the Forensic Science Department at Moscow State University. The jury also includes leading Russian forensic scientists. Among them are Lev Vladimirovich Bertovsky, Doctor of Law, Professor, Director of the Institute of High-Tech Law, Social and Humanitarian Sciences at the Moscow Institute of Electronic Technology. As well as practicing forensic scientists, led by Colonel of Justice Vitaly Vitalyevich Brytkov, Head of the Forensic Support Department for the Siberian Federal District (based in Novosibirsk) of the Forensic Support Directorate for Investigations in the Federal Districts of the Main Forensic Science Directorate (Forensic Center) of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation.

    On the second day of the festival, there will be an off-site session, during which experts will give original lectures on new methods and the future of the profession, and a student round table will also take place.

    The festival is organized by NSU, Institute of Philosophy and Law of NSU And Student CenterNSU initiatives. The project partners are the Department of Forensic Support of Investigations for the Siberian Federal District, the ANO Digital Educational Technologies, and the federal project CrimeLab.

    More detailed information about the festival.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    http://vvv.nsu.ru/n/media/nevs/education/nsu-will-host-the-first-international-student-festival-cyberforensics-crimelab-fest-2024/

    EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and or sentence structure not be perfect.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Russian specialists complete internship in the Turkish Republic

    MIL OSI Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: State University of Management – Official website of the State –

    On September 18, as part of an internship in the Republic of Turkey, Russian specialists visited the city of Kocaeli.

    The business program started at Kocaeli University Technopark. The Russian delegation was welcomed by Deputy Director General Omer Ozer. He introduced the activities of the Technopark aimed at promoting the spread of skilled employment, the production of technological products with high added value based on the comprehensive implementation of import substitution and innovation. Omer Ozer spoke about close cooperation with the Kocaeli and Gebze Chambers of Industry and Commerce and the GOBS Technopark, and emphasized that the Technopark is the center of digital transformation and innovation in the region. Russian businessmen presented the activities of their enterprises and discussed issues of interest to them with their Turkish colleagues.

    The next stop was one of the largest ports in Turkey – Poliport. The delegation was received by Poliport CEO Selcuk Denizhan. He noted that the port is not only Turkish, but also one of the largest and most important ports in the European Union with geographical proximity to the industrial zone, where 45% of Turkey’s GDP is generated. The port is the country’s only independent terminal for storing chemicals and one of the few terminals for storing liquids. Russian specialists were given the opportunity to get acquainted with the technologies for handling cargo of various purposes, with the Poliport warehouse sector, as well as with the specifics of managing port infrastructure.

    The business program continued with a networking conference at the Kocaeli Chamber of Industry, whose Secretary General Mehmet Barış Turabi presented the region’s activities in his report, emphasizing that Kocaeli has 14 organized industrial zones, 2 free economic zones, 5 technology parks, 2 national research centers and 2 technology transfer offices. The networking conference ended with a B2B meeting, where Russian and Turkish specialists discussed possible areas of cooperation and exchanged contacts for further interaction.

    The final part of the internship of Russian specialists in the Republic of Turkey took place on September 19-20 in the city of Istanbul.

    On September 19, a meeting was held at Istanbul Kent University with the Consul General of the Russian Federation Andrey Buravov, the head of the branch of the Trade Mission of Russia in Turkey in Istanbul Vera Borisova, the representative of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Russia in Turkey Vladimir Emmer, the head of the Russian export center in Turkey Timur Safin, as well as representatives of Istanbul legal, consulting, financial and transport companies. The key topic of the event was the practical experience of doing business in Turkey. The current state of foreign trade relations between Russia and Turkey, promising export directions, the peculiarities of local buyers’ perception of Russian products, as well as issues of certification, logistics and mutual settlements were discussed.

    The next meeting in the format of a networking conference was held at the Independent Association of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs of Istanbul (MUSIAD), which specializes in technology, research and development, innovation and knowledge. The meeting was also attended by members of the ASKON association. The conference ended with an exchange of opinions, establishment of business contacts and B2B meetings with Turkish entrepreneurs.

    Next, Russian specialists visited specialized enterprises: the mechanical engineering company Haffner Makina, one of the world leaders in the production of manual and automatic machines for processing PVC and aluminum profiles, and the logistics company Ata Freight, specializing in innovative solutions for managing freight transportation.

    On September 20, the Director of the Federal Resource Center, Alexey Bunkin, joined the internship. The Russian delegation met with the leadership and members of the Turkish-Russian Business Council (TRBC) of the Foreign Economic Relations Council under the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Turkey, where a round table was held on the development of cooperation between Russia and Turkey in the current conditions. The meeting was opened by the Vice President of TRBC, Handan Eren, and Alexey Bunkin also gave a speech. A presentation of the project portfolio of Russian specialists and a discussion platform took place, where Russian and Turkish entrepreneurs considered possible areas and prospects for cooperation, and exchanged contacts for further interaction.

    The next event of the program was a visit to the Bagcilar District Administration of Istanbul, where a networking session was held with representatives of the administration and Turkish businessmen. The Bagcilar District is one of the most important trade and production centers in Turkey. The session was opened with a welcoming speech by the head of the district administration Abdullah Ozdemir and the director of the Federal Resource Center Alexey Bunkin. Russian and Turkish specialists presented their companies, shared their experiences and established business contacts.

    An equally important business meeting was held at the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce. The Russian delegation led by Alexey Bunkin was received by the Vice President of the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce Mehmet Develioglu. The meeting was held in the format of an open discussion, during which businessmen discussed issues of development and expansion of trade, creation of new markets, existing problems of development of the business world and measures to eliminate them.

    On September 21, the day of completion of the internship of Russian specialists in the Republic of Turkey, the director of the Federal Resource Center held a briefing during which the results were summed up, the achieved results were presented, and the prospects for the development of subsequent similar projects were discussed. The participants of the program were also awarded certificates of advanced training from the State University of Management in the programs “General Economic Cooperation and Trade” and “Economic Cooperation in Industry”.

    The results of the intensive practice-oriented internship of Russian specialists in the territory of the Republic of Turkey were acquaintance with successful examples of entrepreneurship, establishment of contacts both with representatives of Turkish business and with Russian representative bodies that ensure the state interests of Russia in the sphere of foreign economic activity in Turkey.

    Subscribe to the TG channel “Our GUU” Date of publication: 09.24.2024

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Russian specialists complete internship in the Turkish Republic

    [embedded content]

    EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and or sentence structure not be perfect.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Bank “ROSSIYA” entered the top 15 most reliable domestic banks

    MIL OSI Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Bank “RUSSIA” Russia Bank –

    Press Releases and Events

    09.24.2024

    Bank “ROSSIYA” entered the top 15 most reliable domestic banks

    Bank “ROSSIYA” was included in the rating of reliability of domestic banks, compiled by the analytical department of the financial service Bankiros.ru.

    Reliability rating is formed on the basis of the performance indicators of banks collected by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The calculation method is based on data on assets, deposits, loans, and also taking into account liquidity and long-term creditworthiness indicators.

    As analysts note, the rating includes the most reliable financial institutions that meet all the conditions to ensure the safety of clients.

    Back to list

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    http://abr.ru/about/nevs/13664/

    EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and or sentence structure not be perfect.

    MIL OSI Russia News –