Category: Statistics

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Workshop on Ethics in Modern Statistical Organisations

    Source: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

    About the meeting

    The workshop will address questions of business and data ethics in the current evolving landscape of Official Statistics. With adoption of new technologies and methodologies, old policy and guidelines of National Statistical Offices are no longer cover all aspects of business operations, so progress in data ethics is now more important than ever. Business ethics is also gaining importance, as NSOs must act as moral agents upholding ethical behavior. Addressing both these questions is essential to maintain public trust and credibility in an evolving and data driven environment.

    The target audience of the includes senior and middle-level managers responsible for business, institutional and data ethics in their NSOs. As well as communication experts who handle ethical issues within their NSOs.

    Detailed information and examples of topics to be covered in the meeting, registration, contributions and other organizational aspects can be found in Information Notice #1.

    Document Title Documents Presentations
    ENG ENG
    Information Notice 1 PDF  
    Information Notice 2 (logistic information) PDF  
    Timetable PDF  
    Report PDF  
    Opening    
    Do statistical ethics apply equally to all – NSOs and other official statistics producers, whether regional/international or other national statistical authorities? Andreas Georgiou (Amherst College)   PDF
    Session 1: Ethics in institutional contexts
    Introducing Session 1: Ethics in Institutional Contexts. Fabrizio Rotundi (Istat, Italy)   PDF
    Democracy dies in darkness without Official Data. Luca Di Gennaro Splendore (University of Malta) PDF PDF
    Structure of ethical issues in new data ecosystems. Marianne Johnson, Timo Koskimäki, Markus Sovala (Statistics Finland) PDF PDF
    Revision of the Swiss Official Statistics Charter: opportunities and risks. Peter Laube (Swiss Ethics Council for Official Statistics), Marcus Baumann (Federal Statistical Office, Switzerland) PDF PDF
    UK Statistic Authority’s Centre for Applied Data Ethics (CADE) – the first three years. Nicola Shearman (Office of National Statistics, UK) PDF PDF
    Investigating Ethical Practices in NSOs – Surveys Results. Katia Ambrosino (Istat) PDF PDF
    Ethics Boot Camp Introduction. Angela Leonetti (Istat, Italy)   PDF
    Session 2: Ethics in daily work life    
    Rules of Professional Ethics in the State Statistics Bodies of the Republic of Belarus. Volha Pazharytskaya (National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus) PDF PDF
    Proposals to Promote Change from Compliance to Ethical Commitment in Istat. Angela Leonetti (Istat)   PDF
    Incorporating ethics in statistical organizations through GSBPM and GAMSO. InKyung Choi (UNECE)   PDF
    French official statistician and ethics: from law to practice. Mylène Chaleix, Olivier Lefebvre (Insee, France) PDF(en) / PDF (fr) PDF
    Ethics in staff and user satisfaction survey (Case of Albania). Vjollca Lasku (Instat, Albania)   PDF
    Session 3: Ethics for new data sources and technology    
    Reimagining how we deliver quality data and statistics: Stats NZ Journey. Emma MacDonald (New Zealand)   PDF
    The Role of Data Ethics to Maintain and Improve Public Trust: The Statistics Canada Experience. Martin Beaulieu (Statistics Canada)   PDF
    Towards a data ethics program for the Australian Bureau of Statistics: Considering privacy, ethics and trust for our innovative data uses. Joanne Hillermann (ABS, Australia)   PDF
    Statistics Netherlands ethics committee – purpose, composition and methods. Esther de Heij (Statistics Netherlands)   PDF
    Ethics of Technology. Milana Karaganis (Statistics Canada)   PDF
    The role of geo-information in ethics within modern statistical institutions. Mirela Deva (Instat, Albania)   PDF
    Session 4: Ethics and proactive communication    
    An ethical approach to the development of social acceptance and its application. John Byrne (Central Statistics Office, Ireland)   PDF
    An assessment of ethics and proactive communication practices in The Nigerian Statistical System. Kumafan Dzaan (Central Bank of Nigeria) PDF PDF
    Ethics and proactive communication: The Istat case. Giulia Peci and Michela Troia (Istat) PDF PDF
    Building trust culture in the office – examples of ethics-driven proactive internal communication at Statistics Poland. Anna Borowska and Olga Świerkot-Strużewska (Statistics Poland)   PDF
    Open discussion for the Reference Book on Ethics    
    Introduction to the Open Discussion for the Reference Book on Ethics. Fabrizio Rotundi (Istat, Italy)   PDF

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Ninth Joint OECD-UNECE Seminar on SEEA Implementation

    Source: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

    Report PDF
    Programme  PDF
    Get to know the speakers PDF
    Concept note PDF
    Link to the Guidelines for Measuring Circular Economy  
    Session 1: Opening & Setting the Scene 
     
    Updates on related work from OECD PDF
    London Group on Environmental Accounting Update PDF
    SEEA-related activities in Asia and the Pacific, ESCAP PDF
    Relevant outcomes from UN Statistical Commission, and work of UNCEEA PDF
    Online inventory of thematic and extended accounts, UNECE PDF
    Session 2: Utilising SEEA for Measuring Circular Economy
     
    2a: Introduction, information needs, existing measurement frameworks and their links with SEEA
     
    The concept of a Circular Economy and the most important measurement points, University of Exeter PDF
    Circular Economy in EU policy, European Commission, DG Environment PDF
    CES Guidelines for Measuring Circular Economy, Finland PDF
    Circular material use rate indicator: how it is calculated, results and interpretation, Eurostat PDF
    2e: Waste Accounts for measuring circularity
    The difficulty of finding circularity in solid waste accounts, Luxembourg PDF
    Limitations of SEEA waste accounts: conceptual, data collection and experiences from policy use, Australia PDF
    Experimental study: Using waste accounts for measuring plastic flows in the EU economy, Eurostat PDF
    2c: New developments and utilising EGSS for measuring jobs, goods and services related to circular-economy
     
    Conceptual framework pillar “socio-economic opportunities of a circular economy”: main indicators, UNECE PDF
    Updating of related classifications-Classification of environmental purposes (CEP), Eurostat PDF
    Using EGSS data for measuring circular economy, France     PDF
    Comparison of EGSS and structural business statistics data on measuring circular economy, Finland PDF
    2d: Measuring flows of biomass and bio-based material in a circular economy
     
    The concept of a Circular Economy and some key agenda for biological materials, University of Exeter PDF
    The sustainable and circular bioeconomy in the EU, European Commission PDF
    Costa Rica: Use of environmental accounts for policy making on circular economy and bioeconomy PDF
    Measuring stocks in the urban mine to monitor circular economy with SEEA, The Netherlands PDF
    2b: Utilising SEEA for measuring physical flows of plastics
     
    Policy development and the development of a statistical guideline on measuring flows of plastic along the lifecycle, UNEP PDF
    Measuring plastic flows with Plastic-KEYs, UNITAR PDF
    What statistics tell us about international trade of plastics? UNCTAD PDF
    Statistics Canada’s Physical Flow Account for Plastic Material PDF
    The use of SEEA – material flow accounts for deriving circular economy indicators, North Macedonia PDF
    Session 3: Informing climate-change-adaptation and response policies with SEEA
     
    3a: Introduction, information needs, existing measurement frameworks and their links with SEEA
    Climate change adaptation policies and SEEA-related information demands, OECD PDF
    Disaster-related statistics and the linkages to SEEA, ESCAP PDF
    Role of NSOs in Achieving National Climate Objectives, UNECE PDF
    3b: Climate change expenditures 
     
    Update on the revision of the Classification of Functions of Government (COFOG), UNSD PDF
    An integrated Approach to the classification of public environmental expenditure, OECD PDF
    G20 Data Gaps Initiative, IMF PDF
    Climate mitigation investments, The Netherlands PDF
    Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Expenditures in the Economy: Towards an Operational Definition, United States PDF
    Environmental expenditures account and its application in the Republic of Kazakhstan

    ENG

    RUS

    3c: Measuring ecosystem condition, degradation and loss of ecosystem services
     
    Ecosystem services accounts: from the operational platform (INCA) to their economic bridging (LISBETH), Joint Research Centre  PDF
    The role of the SEEA in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), UNSD PDF
    Ecosystem condition accounting in Statistics Lithuania PDF
    Working with blue carbon ecosystem accounts: value of coastal ecosystems in alleviating impacts of climate change, Australia PDF
    Implementation of Environmental Accounts in Ukraine – results and challenges. Estimation of damages caused by war PDF
    Session 4: Conclusions & Recommendations
     
    Draft conclusions and recommendations  PDF

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Workshop on Financial Accounts | UNECE

    Source: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

    Agenda   PDF PDF
    Report   PDF PDF
    Session 1: Recapitulation from the previous workshop
    Session 1: Video recording   Part 1, Part 2 Part 1, Part 2
    Consistency and Balancing (IMF)   PDF PDF
       Practical exercise, including solutions   EXCEL EXCEL
    Financial account in Kazakhstan   PDF PDF
    Financial accounts in Kyrgyzstan    PDF PDF
    Session 2: Financial accounts and monetary data      
    Session 2: Video recording   Video Video
    Monetary aggregates and financial accounts (Eurostat)   PDF PDF
    Monetary aggregates and financial accounts. Responses to the exercise (Eurostat)   PDF PDF
    Session 3: Whom-to-whom matrices      
    Session 3: Video recording   Part 1, Part 2 Part 1, Part 2
    Who-to-whom matrices (ECB)   PDF PDF
    Compiling the who-to-whom matrix for Belgium   PDF PDF
    Session 4: Issues related to financial corporations      
    Session 4: Video recording   Part 1, Part 2 Part 1, Part 2
    Compiling financial corporations sub-sectors (ECB)   PDF PDF
    Automation of the preparation process of financial corporations statistics with Python (Türkiye)   PDF PDF
    Financial corporations and interest rates, sectors’ sensitivity to interest rates, FISIM (Eurostat)   PDF PDF
    Financial corporations and interest rates. Interest rates – practical exercise, including solutions   PDF PDF
    Sessions 5: Issues related to non-financial corporations and household sectors      
    Session 5: Video recording   Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 Part 1, Part 2, Part 3
    Analysing non-financial corporate and household sectors issues using institutional sector accounts (IMF)   PDF PDF
    Analysing non-financial corporate and household sectors issues using institutional sector accounts. (IMF) OFVB exercise   EXCEL EXCEL
    Analysing non-financial corporate and household sectors issues using institutional sector accounts. (IMF) OFVB solution   EXCEL EXCEL
    Financial Accounts of the Household Sector: Sources, Compilation and some Results (Netherlands)   PDF PDF
    Compilation and utilisation of the financial account of the household sector (Indonesia)    PDF PDF
    Session 6: Conclusions and future work      
    Conclusions and way forward   PDF PDF
    Session 6: Video recording   Video Video

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Twentieth session of the Joint Task force on Environmental Statistics and Indicators

    Source: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

    16 October (9:30) – 17 October (17:30) 2023

    Palais des Nations, Geneva Switzerland

    Agenda and Information Note

    Agenda item 4 – Implementing the mandate and terms of reference

    Agenda item 5 – Ongoing developments with relevance for the work of the Joint Task Force

    Agenda item 6 – Review of the Guidelines for the Application of Environmental Indicators

    Agenda item 7 – Ongoing and planned capacity development activities

    Agenda item 8 – Data needs, statistics and indicators to manage environment-related human health issues

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: HLG-MOS Workshop on the Modernisation of Official Statistics 2023

    Source: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

    About the meeting

    The High-Level Group for the Modernisation of Official Statistics (HLG-MOS) was established by the Bureau of the Conference of European Statisticians (CES) in 2010 to actively steer the modernisation of statistical organisations. The mission of the HLG-MOS is to work collaboratively to identify trends, threats and opportunities in modernising statistical organisations and provide a common platform for experts to develop solutions in a flexible and agile way. The purpose of the workshop was to ensure that the work of HLG-MOS is community driven and that activities and initiatives are aligned with the implementation of the HLG‑MOS vision, avoiding duplication and maximising efficiency. The workshop will also include sessions where the broad official statistics community could share ongoing initiatives related to modernisation and innovation, thus creating synergies among the organisations and opportunities for further collaboration, which will further enrich the work programme of HLG-MOS.

    The target audience of the workshop is experts, managers and leaders in statistical organisations who work on modernisation and innovation initiatives. This includes experts who have participated in the HLG-MOS activities this year as well as those with a broad knowledge of the recent developments in this area and understanding of international cooperation.

    Document Title

    Documents

    Information Notice 1 (concept note)

    PDF

    Information Notice 2 (logistic information)

    PDF

    Provisional Timetable

    PDF

    Report PDF

    Opening

    Where to go next: a maturing HLG-MOS Anil Arora (Statistics Canada, chair of HLG-MOS)

    Presentation

    HLG-MOS Projects Reporting

    Cloud for Official Statistics John Conway (CSO Ireland) and Claude Julien (UNECE Project Manager)

    Presentation

    Data Governance for Interoperability Framework (DAFI) Project Juan Munoz (INEGI, Mexico) and Carlo Vaccari (UNECE Project Manager)

    Presentation

    ModernStats Carpentries (phase 2 Meta Academy)  Eric Anvar (OECD), Andrew Tait (UNECE), Jonathan Wylie (Statistics Canada)

    Presentation

    Generative AI and Official Statistics

    HLG-MOS White Paper on LLM/GPT Cathal Curtin (Statistics New Zealand)

    Presentation

    Building a SAS to R translation assistant with ChatGPT Florian Givernaud (INSEE, France)

    Transforming the Search for Public Information in Mexico with Advanced Language Models Juan Munoz (INEGI, Mexico)

    Can AI better satisfy users of statistical information? A case study in Istat – Michela Troia, Sara Letardi and Mauro Bruno (Istat, Italy)

    Presentation

     

    Presentation

     

    Presentation

    The Promises of Generative AI and What It Means for the Modernisation of NSOs – Doug Smith (Microsoft)

    Presentation

    Innovation Radar

    Digital Twins for Official Statistics  Steve MacFeely (WHO) and Hossein Hassani (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

    Presentation

    ESS Innovation  Jean-Marc Museux (Eurostat)

    Presentation

    Co-development of open source solutions: the .Stat Suite business case Eric Anvar (OECD)

    Presentation

    HLG-MOS Blue Skies Thinking Network Barteld Braaksma (Statistics Netherlands)

    Presentation

    HLG-MOS Modernisation Group Reporting and Plans

    HLG-MOS Expert Meetings InKyung Choi (UNECE)

    Presentation

    Applying Data Science and Modern Methods Gary Dunnet (Statistics New Zealand) 

    Activity Proposals 2024:

    Presentation 

    Capabilities and Communication Anna Borowska (Statistics Poland), Elaine O’Mahoney (CSO Ireland), Fabrizio Rotundi (Istat) and Jeremy Visschers (Statistics Netherlands) 

    Activity Proposals 2024:

    Presentation 

    Supporting Standards Flavio Rizzolo (Statistics Canada)

    Activity Proposals 2024:

    Presentation 

    Setting Modernisation Agenda for 2024

    Soapbox

     

    HLG-MOS Project Proposals for 2024:

     

    Small group discussion

    Instruction Notes

    Summary and conclusions – Anil Arora (Statistics Canada, chair of HLG-MOS), Jennifer Banim (CSO Ireland, co-chair of HLG-MOS Executive Board) and Stéphane Dufour (Statistics Canada, co-chair of HLG-MOS Executive Board)

     

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Abortion statists reveal horrific rise

    Source: Traditional Unionist Voice – Northern Ireland

    Statement by TUV leader Jim Allister:

    “The abortion statistics published today by the Department of Health are deeply troubling. They show that the number of abortions being carried out in Northern Ireland increased by a shocking 28.8% since the previous year, with 2,792 performed in 2023/24 compared with  2,168 in 2022/23. If one goes back further the rise is even more stark. In 2020/21 the figure was 1,574 meaning there has been an increase of over 77% when compared with today’s figures.

    “While I welcome the increase in the volume of data published by the Department, I note that the information continues to fall well short of the information released by health authorities in Great Britain. In GB the socioeconomic background of the mother, whether she has had more than one abortion and other information is available but not in Northern Ireland. I received an assurance from the then Minister in 2024 that this situation would change. Why hasn’t it?”

    TUV MLA Timothy Gaston added:

    “I have been pressing Minister Nesbitt on issues related to abortion since becoming the Member for North Antrim and tellingly he has been less than forthcoming with responses. It is time that Northern Ireland had a properly informed debate about this issue. When the public were given an opportunity to have their say in response to an NIO consultation a massive 79% of the 21,200 responses to the consultation recorded their opposition to the abortion regulations. In spite of what some in the media may try to claim, there is still considerable opposition to abortion in Northern Ireland and there will be many who will share my alarm at the growth in the number of abortions in our Province.

    “It is clear from today’s figures that abortion is increasingly becoming just another form of birth control in Northern Ireland and that the dishonest debate around the matter in the early 2020s, framed around “hard cases”, did not deal with the real issues created by the legislation imposed on Northern Ireland.”

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Youth Justice Statistics: let’s build on this momentum

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    A blog by Keith Fraser, YJB Chair and Board Champion for Over-Represented Children.

    Keith Fraser

    Every year, we reach a pivotal moment in the youth justice calendar: the publication of our annual statistics.

    These figures are not just numbers on a page—they are essential tools that help us understand the landscape of youth justice in England and Wales. They inform our priorities,  support our advice to government ministers, and shape the support provided to children in the system.

    Looking at this year’s data, there are several positives worth celebrating, as well as persistent and emerging challenges we must continue to address.

    Fewer first time entrants and reduced knife offences

    One of the most encouraging trends is the continued fall in the number of children entering the youth justice system for the first time—a 3% drop to a record low. This is particularly welcome given the slight rise last year, which raised concerns that we might be witnessing a new upward trend.

    Early intervention remains key. All agencies hold a responsibility to prevent children from offending and the evidence says that the earlier we can support vulnerable children, the more likely they are to lead positive, constructive lives and contribute to our communities.

    The number of stop and searches has also fallen by 4%, though it remains a concern that over three-quarters result in No Further Action. This does little to build trust in policing and broader public services for children and young people, particularly among Black and other minority communities. We must ensure police and youth justice responses are both proportionate and appropriate.

    While we are pleased that many forces are adopting child-centred policing or a Child First approach to ensure better outcomes for children, victims and the wider community, there is clearly still work to be done.

    We are in conversation with our partners, such as the National Police Chiefs’ Council, to advocate for evidence-based practice, share advice   and to ensure scrutiny is in place to ensure that children from ethnic minorities are not disproportionately represented. We will also offer advice to Ministers on what our oversight tells us is needed to create the necessary improvements.

    It is reassuring to see a 6% drop in proven knife or offensive weapon offences committed by children, marking the sixth consecutive year of decline. While knife crime is often associated with children in the media, it is important to note that adults commit most of these offences.

    Addressing the root causes—such as poverty, trauma, exploitation, and fear—remains critical. The majority of children who carry knives often do so out of a legitimate sense of fear or victimisation. We must address and reduce  these societal pressures and help children develop better ways to manage risk and think through consequences.

    Another record low in the data was the average number of children in custody falling 3% against the previous year (to 430). While this is welcome, we advocate for a complete rethink of the approach to custody that is more in line with the new secure school. The secure school, which opened last year, places education and healthcare at the heart of its approach to support children and steer them away from reoffending.

    Emerging challenges

    Despite, or because of the reduced number of children in custody, we are concerned by the growing number of young adults aged 18 that remain there. These establishments are meant for children and yet the number of 18-year-olds has more than doubled from around 60 in the previous year to 150 in the latest year. This was due to pressures on capacity in the adult estate, and heightens the need for reform in the adult criminal justice system. 

    Another area that presents a significant challenge is the time it takes to process cases in the court system. On average, it now takes 225 days from offence to completion. This is four days longer than during the pandemic, when there were court closures, for cases to be resolved.

    Delays place a huge strain on children, their families, and victims alike. Prolonged uncertainty affects children psychologically and practically, leaving them unable to plan or move forward and potentially delaying them from accessing the right support at the right time.

    We are advocating for both short-term and long-term solutions. In the short term, youth courts should be given greater powers, as they are better suited to meet the needs of children than Crown Courts. Technological advancements, like the Common Platform, could also improve case progression. In the long term, we need systemic reform of courts t o streamline processes and reduce delays.

    Persistent issues

    Alarmingly, nearly three-quarters of children on custodial remand do not go on to receive custodial sentences.

    This means that hundreds of children and their families experience the negative effects of custody and then go on to receive a community sentence, or no sentence at all. Having children in custody that do not need to be there not only creates additional trauma and exposure to criminality for the children, but also leads to unnecessary risk and costs for the general public. The evidence is clear that contact with the criminal justice system, and custody, heightens the likelihood of reoffending.

    The proven reoffending rate for children has increased as has the number of children and the number of children who reoffended. This along with the reductions in first time entrants suggests that the children in the system now require a higher level of support to break free from an offending cycle. We will be looking at this very closely in the coming weeks.

    I have to say that I am greatly encouraged by the reduced over-representation of Black children across a range of areas. Compared to other ethnicities, Black children saw the biggest decrease in stop and search and first time entrants.

    While still massively over-represented compared to the general population, Black children in custody are at their lowest proportion since 2017. There is also a significant decrease (21%) in the numbers of Black children on remand, with Black children being the only ethnicity this year to see a reoffending rate decrease. We must be clear: any level of over-representation is unacceptable, but something is clearly working towards achieving change , and we remain determined to continue collaborating with our partners to address the contributors to racial disparity.

    I am particularly concerned by the fact that the proportion of children with Mixed ethnicity in custody has doubled over the past decade. We must understand why this is happening and, more importantly, work together to prevent it.

    Community-based solutions are essential. The London Accommodation Pathfinder is a promising example, providing targeted support to boys of Black or Mixed heritage who might otherwise be remanded to custody. By offering appropriate community settings, we can achieve better outcomes and reduce unnecessary detention.

    Let’s build on this momentum

    I want to express my heartfelt gratitude to everyone in the youth justice sector for their dedication and hard work. These statistics show that positive change is possible when we collaborate and adopt evidence-based approaches.

    But there is still much to do. Let’s continue to push for a youth justice system that recognises the potential in every child and supports them on their journey toward a brighter future.

    By working together, we can build on this momentum to ensure better outcomes for all children, and victims with less crime, and safer communities.

    Updates to this page

    Published 30 January 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with South Africa

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    January 30, 2025

    Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with South Africa.

    South Africa’s economy has continued to face challenges in recent years. Power shortages and disruptions to rail and port operations constrained growth to 0.7 percent in 2023. Activity remained subdued in 2024, given election-related uncertainty in the first half of the year and severe droughts. Nonetheless, power generation was stabilized and, following the formation of a reform-oriented Government of National Unity in June, consumer, business, and investor confidence rebounded. Inflation moderated from 5.9 percent in 2023 to an estimated
    4.5 percent in 2024, with the central bank cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in 2024. While still high, unemployment declined to an estimated 32.8 percent in 2024. Government deficits remained elevated, pushing public debt to above 75 percent of GDP by end-2024.

    Looking ahead, real GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 1.5 percent in 2025, driven by recovering private consumption and investment supported by stable electricity generation. Over the medium term, annual growth is expected to reach 1.8 percent, as investment improves gradually on the back of ongoing reform efforts to address electricity and logistics bottlenecks. Inflation is projected to average 4 percent in 2025 and stabilize at the midpoint of the SARB’s target range (4.5 percent) in the medium run. With fiscal deficits projected to stay elevated over the medium term, public debt is expected to continue to rise.

    The outlook remains marked by high uncertainty, with the balance of risks tilted to the downside. Key downside external risks relate to a further deepening of geoeconomic fragmentation and intensification of protectionist policies, an escalation of ongoing conflicts, a deeper slowdown in main trading partners, or slower global disinflation and tightening financial conditions. Domestically, resistance to and delays in the implementation of needed reforms could add to downside risks. On the upside, faster and more ambitious reform implementation by the new government, or stronger global growth, could boost confidence and growth.   

    Executive Board Assessment[2]

    “Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed South Africa’s new Government of National Unity and its commitment to reforms aimed at addressing long‑standing challenges. While there are signs of recovery, economic activity remains subdued amid heightened global uncertainty and long‑standing structural impediments. Against this background, Directors emphasized the importance of prudent macroeconomic policies complemented by ambitious structural reforms to support macroeconomic stability and place the economy on a path toward higher, more inclusive, and greener growth.

    “Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to fiscal prudence, including plans to reduce the fiscal deficit and stabilize debt. Given increased risks, most Directors called for more ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts to lower debt to more prudent levels and rebuild fiscal buffers, although a few felt that the authorities’ preferred approach may be more appropriate given political economy considerations. Directors considered that an evenly paced fiscal consolidation focused on cutting inefficient spending while protecting priority social and infrastructure spending, and continuing to strengthen tax administration, can support debt sustainability while minimizing the negative impact on the economy. Most Directors agreed that introducing a prudent debt anchor supported by a fiscal rule could help underpin the adjustment and bolster credibility, although a few Directors felt that a debt ceiling could constrain flexibility. Enhancing fiscal transparency and risk management can further support the resilience of public finances.

    “Directors commended the South African Reserve Bank’s effective monetary management, which supported a decline in inflation. Looking forward, they recommended maintaining a flexible and data‑driven approach to monetary policy decisions amid ongoing uncertainties. Directors saw merit in shifting, at an opportune time, from the current inflation target band to a lower point target, which will require careful design, gradual implementation, close coordination, and appropriate communication.

    “Directors welcomed the authorities’ efforts to safeguard financial stability, including recent banking‑resolution and safety‑net reforms and macro‑prudential policies. They encouraged the authorities to continue to monitor risks, including those related to the sovereign‑bank nexus, and to stand ready to implement prudential measures as needed. They considered that strengthened supervision, including for non‑bank financial institutions, alongside continued efforts to bolster the AML/CFT framework, remain essential.

    “Directors commended the authorities for their structural reform efforts aimed at removing critical impediments to growth. They encouraged the new government to implement resolutely ongoing energy and logistics reforms, including by promoting private sector participation. To support higher and greener growth and job creation, particularly among the youth, while reducing inequality and poverty, Directors recommended additional reforms to enhance the business environment, bolster governance, and improve labor market flexibility, along with sustained efforts to facilitate trade and achieve climate goals.

    Directors wished the authorities success during South Africa’s G20 Presidency and welcomed their leadership in support of multilateral cooperation.”

     

    South Africa: Selected Economic Indicators, 2022–27

    Social Indicators

    GDP

    Poverty (percent of population)

    Nominal GDP (2022, billions of US dollars)

    407

    Lower national poverty line (2015)

    40

    GDP per capita (2022, in US dollars)

    6,712

    Undernourishment (2019)

    7

    Population characteristics

    Inequality (income shares unless otherwise specified)

    Total (2022, million)

    62

    Highest 10 percent of population (2015)

    53

    Urban population (2020, percent of total)

    67

    Lowest 40 percent of population (2015)

    7

    Life expectancy at birth (2020, number of years)

    64

    Gini coefficient (2015)

    65

    Economic Indicators

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    2026

    2027

    Proj.

    National Income and Prices

    (Annual Percentage Change Unless Otherwise Indicated)

    Real GDP

    1.9

    0.7

    0.8

    1.5

    1.6

    1.7

    Domestic demand

    3.9

    0.8

    0.4

    1.5

    1.6

    1.8

    Private Consumption

    2.5

    0.7

    1.2

    1.4

    1.5

    1.6

    Government Consumption

    0.6

    1.9

    1.0

    1.0

    1.2

    1.3

    Gross Fixed Investment

    4.8

    3.9

    -3.4

    2.5

    2.7

    3.1

    Inventory Investment (contribution to growth)

    1.5

    -0.6

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    Net export (contribution to growth)

    -2.1

    -0.1

    0.4

    0.1

    -0.1

    -0.1

    Real GDP per capita 1/

    1.1

    -0.8

    -0.7

    0.1

    0.1

    0.2

    GDP deflator

    5.0

    4.8

    4.4

    4.1

    4.5

    4.5

    CPI (annual average)

    6.9

    5.9

    4.5

    4.0

    4.5

    4.5

    CPI (end of period)

    7.4

    5.5

    3.0

    4.5

    4.5

    4.5

    Labor Market

    (Annual Percentage Change Unless Otherwise Indicated)

    Unemployment rate (percent of labor force, annual average)

    33.5

    33.1

    32.8

    32.7

    32.5

    32.3

    Unit labor costs (formal nonagricultural)

    2.1

    -0.8

    -0.7

    0.1

    0.1

    0.2

    Savings and Investment (Percent of GDP)

    Gross national saving

    15.0

    13.9

    13.2

    12.9

    13.0

    13.0

    Investment (including inventories) 2/

    15.4

    15.5

    14.5

    14.6

    14.8

    15.0

    Fiscal Position

    (Percent of GDP Unless Otherwise Indicated) 3/

    Revenue, including grants 4/

    27.6

    26.8

    26.8

    26.8

    26.9

    26.9

    Expenditure and net lending

    31.9

    32.7

    32.9

    33.3

    32.6

    32.3

    Overall balance

    -4.3

    -5.9

    -6.1

    -6.6

    -5.8

    -5.4

    Primary balance

    0.3

    -0.9

    -0.7

    -1.0

    -0.1

    0.4

    Gross government debt 5/

    70.8

    73.4

    75.7

    78.3

    80.1

    81.7

    Government bond yield (10-year and over, percent)

    10.7

    11.6

    11.2

    Money and Credit

    (Annual Percentage Change Unless Otherwise Indicated)

    Broad money

    8.3

    7.9

    5.2

    5.7

    6.2

    6.3

    Credit to the private sector 6/

    8.2

    4.1

    5.0

    5.6

    6.2

    6.3

    Repo rate (percent, end-period)

    7.0

    8.25

    7.75

    3-month Treasury bill interest rate (percent)

    5.2

    8.0

    8.3

    Private sector credit growth (total) 7/

    9.2

    4.8

    4.3

    Credit growth (households) 8/

    7.7

    4.4

    3.1

    Credit growth (corporates) 8/

    10.7

    5.2

    6.4

    Balance of Payments

    (Annual Percentage Change Unless Otherwise Indicated)

    Current account balance (billions of U.S. dollars)

    -1.8

    -6.1

    -5.3

    -7.3

    -7.8

    -8.9

    percent of GDP

    -0.5

    -1.6

    -1.3

    -1.7

    -1.8

    -2.0

    Exports growth (volume)

    7.4

    3.5

    -4.0

    2.7

    2.8

    2.9

    Imports growth (volume)

    14.9

    4.1

    -4.9

    2.2

    3.0

    3.2

    Terms of trade

    -8.6

    -4.8

    1.7

    -1.7

    -0.3

    0.0

    Overall balance (percent of GDP)

    0.0

    0.5

    0.8

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    Gross reserves (billions of U.S. dollars)

    60.6

    62.5

    65.9

    65.9

    65.9

    65.9

    in percent of ARA

    88.9

    97.0

    97.1

    Total external debt (percent of GDP)

    40.4

    41.5

    43.2

    44.7

    45.1

    45.6

    Nominal effective exchange rate (period average)

    16.6

    18.8

    18.6

    Real effective exchange rate (period average)

    6.8

    7.7

    7.5

    Exchange rate (Rand/U.S. dollar, end-period)

    17.0

    18.5

    18.7

    Sources: Bloomberg, Haver, National Treasury South Africa, SARB, World Bank, and IMF staff calculations.

    1/ Per-capita GDP figures are computed using STATS SA mid-year population estimates.

    2/ Inventories data are volatile and excluded from the investment breakdown to help clarify fixed capital formation developments.

    3/ Consolidated government as defined in the budget unless otherwise indicated.

    4/ Revenue excludes “transactions in assets and liabilities” classified as part of revenue in budget documents. This item represents proceeds from the sales of assets, realized valuation gains from holding of foreign currency deposits, and other conceptually similar items, which are not classified as revenue by the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014.

    5/ Central government.

    6/ Depository institution’s domestic claims on private sector in all currencies.

    7/ Credit extended by all monetary institutions/ Claims on the domestic private sector/ Total loans & advances. Data for 2024 is as of November.

    8/ Data for 2024 is as of August.

    [1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

    [2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chair of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Tatiana Mossot

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/01/29/pr-2519-south-africa-imf-executive-board-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI USA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Advance Estimate)

    Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis

    Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the advance estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

    The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. For more information, refer to the “Technical Notes” below.

    Compared to the third quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in investment and exports. Imports turned down.

    The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the third quarter. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 2.3 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent.

    Real GDP and Related Measures
    (Percent change from preceding quarter)
    Real GDP 2.3
    Current-dollar GDP 4.5
    Gross domestic purchases price index 2.2
    PCE price index 2.3
    PCE price index excluding food and energy 2.5

    GDP for 2024

    Real GDP increased 2.8 percent in 2024 (from the 2023 annual level to the 2024 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.9 percent in 2023. The increase in real GDP in 2024 reflected increases in consumer spending, investment, government spending, and exports. Imports increased.

    The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.3 percent in 2024, compared with an increase of 3.3 percent in 2023. The PCE price index increased 2.5 percent, compared with an increase of 3.8 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent, compared with an increase of 4.1 percent.

    Next release: February 27, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. EST
    Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate)

    For definitions, statistical conventions, updates to GDP, and more, visit “Additional Information.”

    Technical Notes

    Sources of change for real GDP

    Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent (0.6 percent at a quarterly rate1), primarily reflecting increases in both consumer and government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

    • The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the leading contributor to the increase was health care. Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were recreational goods and vehicles as well as motor vehicles and parts.
      • Within health care, hospital and nursing home services (notably hospital services) and outpatient services increased, based primarily on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES) employment, earnings, and hours data.
      • The increase in recreational goods and vehicles was led by information processing equipment, based on Census Bureau Monthly Retail Trade Survey data.
      • The increase in motor vehicles and parts was led by new light trucks, based primarily on unit sales data from Wards Intelligence.
    • The increase in government spending reflected increases in state and local as well as federal government spending.
      • Within state and local government spending, the increase was led by compensation of employees, based primarily on employment data from the BLS CES.
      • Within federal government spending, the increase was led by defense consumption expenditures, based primarily on Monthly Treasury Statement data.

    More information on the source data and BEA assumptions that underlie the fourth-quarter estimate is shown in the key source data and assumptions table.

    Impact of Hurricane Milton on fourth-quarter 2024 estimates

    Hurricane Milton made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane just south of Tampa Bay, Florida, on October 9, 2024, bringing damage from high winds, including significant tornado activity, and extensive inland flooding. 

    This disaster disrupted usual consumer and business activities and prompted emergency services and remediation activities. The responses to this disaster are included, but not separately identified, in the source data that BEA uses to prepare the estimates of GDP; consequently, it is not possible to estimate the overall impact of Hurricane Milton on fourth-quarter GDP. The destruction of fixed assets, such as residential and nonresidential structures, does not directly affect GDP or personal income. BEA estimates of disaster losses are presented in NIPA table 5.1, “Saving and Investment.” BEA’s preliminary estimates show that Hurricane Milton resulted in losses of $27.0 billion in privately owned fixed assets ($108.0 billion at an annual rate) and $3.0 billion in state and local government-owned fixed assets ($12.0 billion at an annual rate).

    For additional information, refer to “How are the measures of production and income in the national accounts affected by a disaster?” and “How are the fixed assets accounts (FAAs) and consumption of fixed capital (CFC) impacted by disasters?”

    1. Percent changes in quarterly seasonally adjusted series are displayed at annual rates, unless otherwise specified. For more information, refer to the FAQ Why does BEA publish percent changes in quarterly series at annual rates?. 

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Signing of Memorandum of Understanding between Data Informatics and Innovation Division, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) and Indraprastha Institute of Information Technology (IIIT-Delhi) on 30.01.2025

    Source: Government of India

    Posted On: 30 JAN 2025 4:31PM by PIB Delhi

    A Memorandum of Understanding was signed under the Data Innovation lab initiative between Data Informatics and Innovation Division, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) and Indraprastha Institute of Information Technology (IIIT-Delhi) on 30.01.2025. 

    The Ministry has initiated several reforms to modernise the National Statistical System in the last one year. In July 2024, MoSPI embarked on the scheme for Data Innovation (DI) Lab initiative as to infuse innovation, and build an ecosystem for research-driven solutions. The DI Lab is designed to serve as a platform to harness emerging technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and Big Data Analytics to enhance data collection, processing, and dissemination.

    As part of the Outreach Activities, the Lab has been engaging with premier academic institutions. More than 100 academic institutions have been approached. MoU with several reputed institutions including IITs and IIMs have been signed.

    A key objective of this partnership is to leverage academic expertise to tackle real-world challenges in official statistics by creating a link between academia and practitioners.. The statistical landscape is evolving, and new methodologies are needed to address issues like data integration, real-time analytics, and predictive modeling.

    In this collective endeavour and collaborative approach towards improving Official Statistics, the partnership was formalised through this Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between MoSPI and IIIT Delhi. Collaboration with IIIT Delhi is a crucial step in creating an ecosystem for innovation. With the signing of this MoU, MoSPI is reinforcing its commitment to fostering long-term collaboration between Government and Academia and infusing fresh ideas in the system. This is expected to lead to impactful innovations that will significantly enhance the functioning of MoSPI and strengthen the statistical ecosystem of the country.

    *****

    Samrat/Dheeraj : @pibmospi[at]gmail[dot]com

    (Release ID: 2097621) Visitor Counter : 25

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Commissioner Tzitzikostas speech at Delphi Brussels Forum

    Source: EuroStat – European Statistics

    European Commission Speech Brussels, 30 Jan 2025 Transport is a vital contributor to competitiveness. We have 1.4 million companies active in transport and storage in Europe. My goals are clear: Defend our industry and its workers, reduce our dependencies, create a level playing field, and fulfil our climate objectives.

    We also have ind

    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-OSI Europe: President von der Leyen launches Strategic Dialogue on the Future of the Automotive Industry and announces Action Plan

    Source: EuroStat – European Statistics

    European Commission Press release Brussels, 30 Jan 2025 This dialogue marks the start of an inclusive and collaborative process aimed at addressing critical challenges facing the sector and ensuring its continued success as a major driver of the European economy.

    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-OSI Africa: Anti-immigration policies: why harsh new rules put in place by Trump and other rich countries won’t last

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Alan Hirsch, Research Fellow New South Institute, Emeritus Professor at The Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, University of Cape Town

    Donald Trump, America’s new president, has cut back massively on US commitments to asylum seekers, blocked all asylum processes and started to remove irregular immigrants.

    Trump’s new measures are far reaching. They include the suspension of the US refugee admissions programme. Flights booked for refugees to the US have been cancelled. Arrests and deportations have begun.

    Strongly anti-immigrant policies were also pursued under the Biden administration, though Trump’s dramatic steps take them much further. Other countries in the global north have also introduced tougher policies. The 2024 EU Pact on Migration and Asylum sets out tougher border controls, quicker assessment of asylum seekers and swifter removal of those who did not qualify. In the UK, Labour prime minister Keir Starmer has promised to bring down the net migration rate and treat people-smugglers like terrorists.

    Based on my research into migration over the past 30 years I believe that these measures are unlikely to last. There are two linked trends that make closing the borders of the global north impractical and destined for revision.

    The first is that populations in most of the global north are ageing fast (on average) and the fertility rate, or natural population growth rate, has plummeted. There are many more older people as a percentage of the population.

    Secondly, with a workforce shrinking and the dependency ratio (the proportion of non-working to working people) rising rapidly, closing borders to potential labourers from other countries, without any other change, would lead to declining living standards in the global north. Economic growth and government revenues would slow or stagnate, undermining infrastructure maintenance and social service provision.

    There are several possible strategies that could be alternatives to anti-immigration measures. Some older people could migrate south, robots and AI could do more work, workers in the global south could perform remote work for the north, and arrangements could be made to allow migrants into the north either permanently or as circulating migrants.

    All these strategies are already in use, if modestly. Their application would have to expand considerably.

    Misplaced panic

    The responses of governments in the global north are exaggerated. Governments putting in place tough anti-immigrant measures have done so on the back of a narrative that there’s been a significant rise in the number of migrants worldwide.

    This isn’t true. Some countries, such as the US, Germany and Colombia, have seen a spike in refugees and other migrants. But for the rest of the world the picture remains much the same as it has done for decades.

    Foreign-born residents (the most widely used definition of migrants) rose as a proportion of residents worldwide from 2.3% in 1970 to 3.6% in 2020. But in 1960 the number was over 3%, and in the late 1800s migrants made up somewhere between 3% and 5% of the global population.

    So, 3.6% is nothing new.

    As for refugees, in 2023 there were about 38 million, of whom 69% sought refuge in neighbouring countries and 75% in middle- and low-income countries.

    In general, therefore, rich countries have not been carrying the greatest burden.

    The real reason behind these tougher measures is that living standards have stagnated in many countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The cost and availability of housing have worsened; inequality has grown since the 1980s; the quality and availability of public services have deteriorated since the global financial crisis of 2008 and COVID-19; and the quality of employment has shifted to precarious work and poorly paid service sector occupations.

    This has contributed to the rise of populism, including anti-foreigner sentiment and even xenophobia.

    Trump’s actions are the most extreme yet. They include an order to block “aliens involved in the invasion” using “appropriate measures” that give the security forces further powers. The prohibition of southern border asylum hearings in the US and the instruction to “remain in Mexico” means that prospective asylum seekers from third countries may not cross the border to make their applications at the port of entry. They must apply remotely.

    Trump has also ordered that birthright citizenship must be limited to the children of certain categories of residents, essentially citizens or those with residence rights in the form of a “green card”. This move has been temporarily blocked in some states by judges as unconstitutional.

    In addition, the acting head of the Homeland Security Department gave Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials the power to deport migrants admitted temporarily into the US under several programmes of the Biden administration, targeting refugees from Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Haiti, and possibly Afghan and Ukrainian refugees too.

    The very first bill to receive final approval from the US Congress under Trump’s second term, the Laken-Riley Act, would require the detention and deportation of migrants who enter the country without authorisation and are charged with certain crimes. This bill was passed with 263 votes and 156 votes against, meaning that 46 House Democrats supported the Republican bill.

    In contrast, in the global south, as I have discussed elsewhere, the trend has been in the opposite direction. South American regional communities liberalised migration most extensively in recent decades, but African regional communities have made progress too, as has the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

    The way forward

    Some alternative strategies are leading the way.

    In Canada, the Temporary Foreign Worker programme has expanded steadily since 1973, increasingly including long-term circulating migrating lower-skilled workers for key occupations like catering, care, construction and agriculture. Though it is currently under political scrutiny because of the panic in the north over migration, and because of housing shortages in Canada, it is likely to survive and evolve. Similar systems are emerging across the global north.

    In the EU, Talent Partnerships are now encouraged. Germany, for example, has talent partnerships with Kenya and Morocco, where they train health workers and IT technicians in those countries to work and live in Germany. Spain has various partnerships in Latin America and Africa. Prime minister Pedro Sanchez has chosen to be upfront on the choices. In October last year he told the Spanish people:

    Spain needs to choose between being an open and prosperous country or a closed off poor country.

    The current fashion for population protectionism in the global north is increasingly nasty, but it is unlikely to stand the test of time. Several constructive responses to the rising dependency ratio are feasible, but being open to more migration, possibly in new forms and through new channels. is an inevitable part of the solution.

    New formal pathways for working migrants and reasonable systems for asylum seekers, along with full enforcement of rules against irregular migrants, could be the combination that works politically and economically.

    – Anti-immigration policies: why harsh new rules put in place by Trump and other rich countries won’t last
    – https://theconversation.com/anti-immigration-policies-why-harsh-new-rules-put-in-place-by-trump-and-other-rich-countries-wont-last-248359

    MIL OSI Africa

  • MIL-OSI Global: Anti-immigration policies: why harsh new rules put in place by Trump and other rich countries won’t last

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Alan Hirsch, Research Fellow New South Institute, Emeritus Professor at The Nelson Mandela School of Public Governance, University of Cape Town

    Donald Trump, America’s new president, has cut back massively on US commitments to asylum seekers, blocked all asylum processes and started to remove irregular immigrants.

    Trump’s new measures are far reaching. They include the suspension of the US refugee admissions programme. Flights booked for refugees to the US have been cancelled. Arrests and deportations have begun.

    Strongly anti-immigrant policies were also pursued under the Biden administration, though Trump’s dramatic steps take them much further. Other countries in the global north have also introduced tougher policies. The 2024 EU Pact on Migration and Asylum sets out tougher border controls, quicker assessment of asylum seekers and swifter removal of those who did not qualify. In the UK, Labour prime minister Keir Starmer has promised to bring down the net migration rate and treat people-smugglers like terrorists.

    Based on my research into migration over the past 30 years I believe that these measures are unlikely to last. There are two linked trends that make closing the borders of the global north impractical and destined for revision.

    The first is that populations in most of the global north are ageing fast (on average) and the fertility rate, or natural population growth rate, has plummeted. There are many more older people as a percentage of the population.

    Secondly, with a workforce shrinking and the dependency ratio (the proportion of non-working to working people) rising rapidly, closing borders to potential labourers from other countries, without any other change, would lead to declining living standards in the global north. Economic growth and government revenues would slow or stagnate, undermining infrastructure maintenance and social service provision.

    There are several possible strategies that could be alternatives to anti-immigration measures. Some older people could migrate south, robots and AI could do more work, workers in the global south could perform remote work for the north, and arrangements could be made to allow migrants into the north either permanently or as circulating migrants.

    All these strategies are already in use, if modestly. Their application would have to expand considerably.

    Misplaced panic

    The responses of governments in the global north are exaggerated. Governments putting in place tough anti-immigrant measures have done so on the back of a narrative that there’s been a significant rise in the number of migrants worldwide.

    This isn’t true. Some countries, such as the US, Germany and Colombia, have seen a spike in refugees and other migrants. But for the rest of the world the picture remains much the same as it has done for decades.

    Foreign-born residents (the most widely used definition of migrants) rose as a proportion of residents worldwide from 2.3% in 1970 to 3.6% in 2020. But in 1960 the number was over 3%, and in the late 1800s migrants made up somewhere between 3% and 5% of the global population.

    So, 3.6% is nothing new.

    As for refugees, in 2023 there were about 38 million, of whom 69% sought refuge in neighbouring countries and 75% in middle- and low-income countries.

    In general, therefore, rich countries have not been carrying the greatest burden.

    The real reason behind these tougher measures is that living standards have stagnated in many countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The cost and availability of housing have worsened; inequality has grown since the 1980s; the quality and availability of public services have deteriorated since the global financial crisis of 2008 and COVID-19; and the quality of employment has shifted to precarious work and poorly paid service sector occupations.

    This has contributed to the rise of populism, including anti-foreigner sentiment and even xenophobia.

    Trump’s actions are the most extreme yet. They include an order to block “aliens involved in the invasion” using “appropriate measures” that give the security forces further powers. The prohibition of southern border asylum hearings in the US and the instruction to “remain in Mexico” means that prospective asylum seekers from third countries may not cross the border to make their applications at the port of entry. They must apply remotely.

    Trump has also ordered that birthright citizenship must be limited to the children of certain categories of residents, essentially citizens or those with residence rights in the form of a “green card”. This move has been temporarily blocked in some states by judges as unconstitutional.

    In addition, the acting head of the Homeland Security Department gave Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials the power to deport migrants admitted temporarily into the US under several programmes of the Biden administration, targeting refugees from Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela and Haiti, and possibly Afghan and Ukrainian refugees too.

    The very first bill to receive final approval from the US Congress under Trump’s second term, the Laken-Riley Act, would require the detention and deportation of migrants who enter the country without authorisation and are charged with certain crimes. This bill was passed with 263 votes and 156 votes against, meaning that 46 House Democrats supported the Republican bill.

    In contrast, in the global south, as I have discussed elsewhere, the trend has been in the opposite direction. South American regional communities liberalised migration most extensively in recent decades, but African regional communities have made progress too, as has the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

    The way forward

    Some alternative strategies are leading the way.

    In Canada, the Temporary Foreign Worker programme has expanded steadily since 1973, increasingly including long-term circulating migrating lower-skilled workers for key occupations like catering, care, construction and agriculture. Though it is currently under political scrutiny because of the panic in the north over migration, and because of housing shortages in Canada, it is likely to survive and evolve. Similar systems are emerging across the global north.

    In the EU, Talent Partnerships are now encouraged. Germany, for example, has talent partnerships with Kenya and Morocco, where they train health workers and IT technicians in those countries to work and live in Germany. Spain has various partnerships in Latin America and Africa. Prime minister Pedro Sanchez has chosen to be upfront on the choices. In October last year he told the Spanish people:

    Spain needs to choose between being an open and prosperous country or a closed off poor country.

    The current fashion for population protectionism in the global north is increasingly nasty, but it is unlikely to stand the test of time. Several constructive responses to the rising dependency ratio are feasible, but being open to more migration, possibly in new forms and through new channels. is an inevitable part of the solution.

    New formal pathways for working migrants and reasonable systems for asylum seekers, along with full enforcement of rules against irregular migrants, could be the combination that works politically and economically.

    Alan Hirsch receives funding from the New South Institute for research and the University of Cape Town for advice and supervision.

    ref. Anti-immigration policies: why harsh new rules put in place by Trump and other rich countries won’t last – https://theconversation.com/anti-immigration-policies-why-harsh-new-rules-put-in-place-by-trump-and-other-rich-countries-wont-last-248359

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Tuberculosis cases in England continued to increase in 2024

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    UK TB cases rise 12.9% in 2024, continuing upward trend.

    The latest provisional annual data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) shows that reported notifications of tuberculosis (TB) in England increased by 12.9% compared to 2023, continuing the upward trend over the last few years.

    England remains a low-incidence country for TB, but the TB notification rate in England rose from 8.5 per 100,000 population in 2023 to 9.5 per 100,000 in 2024.

    81.5% of all TB notifications in 2024 were in people born outside the UK but there was an increase in both UK-born and non UK-born populations.

    Tuberculosis continues to be associated with deprivation and is more common in large urban areas. The largest increases in TB notifications in 2024 were recorded in London and West Midlands. Among UK-born individuals, TB is more common in those experiencing homelessness, drug or alcohol dependency, and contact with the criminal justice system.

    Dr Esther Robinson, Head of the TB Unit at UKHSA, said:

    TB remains a serious public health issue in England.

    The infection is preventable and curable. If you have moved to England from a country where TB is more common, please be aware of the symptoms of TB so you can get promptly tested and treated through your GP surgery.

    Not every persistent cough, along with a fever, is caused by flu or COVID-19. A cough that usually has mucus and lasts longer than 3 weeks can be caused by a range of other issues, including TB. Please speak to your GP if you think you could be at risk.

    TB is the world’s leading cause of death from a single infectious agent, having surpassed coronavirus (COVID-19). It is a bacterial infection that most frequently affects the lungs, which is when it is infectious.

    Symptoms of TB include:

    • a cough that lasts more than 3 weeks
    • high temperature
    • night sweats
    • loss of appetite
    • weight loss

    TB can also be found in other parts of the body besides the lungs, with symptoms including swollen glands and joints. More information on the symptoms of TB and what to do is available.

    TB can spread through close contact with people who have the infection and have symptoms (active TB). When someone with active TB coughs, they release small droplets containing the bacteria. You can catch TB if you regularly breathe in these droplets over a long period of time. It can be treated with a long course of antibiotics but can be serious, particularly if not treated.

    A TB test for infectious TB in the lungs is part of the visa requirements for anyone coming to stay in the UK for 6 months or more if they are coming from certain countries where TB is common. However, the bacterium that causes TB can also lie dormant for many years – something known as latent TB. To detect people with latent TB infection, a testing and treatment programme is in place in higher incidence areas of England for new arrivals from higher incidence countries.

    Updates to this page

    Published 30 January 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Youth Justice Statistics: record lows in custody and first time entrants

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    The Youth Justice Annual Statistics for 2023 to 2024 were published today. There are fewer first time entrants and children in custody, but court delays remain a concern.

    The Youth Justice Statistics for 2023 to 24.

    The Youth Justice Statistics for England and Wales reveal a mix of promising trends and areas requiring urgent attention.

    Key findings include:

    • the number of children entering the system for the first time (first-time entrants (FTE)) fell to its lowest level on record (8,300)
    • stop and searches of children by the police decreased by 4% (103,100)
    • court sentences outnumbered Youth Cautions for the first time – 55% of FTEs received a sentence at court compared with 48% in the previous year – this marks an increasing shift toward diversion and alternative approaches to youth justice
    • the numbers of children in custody has fallen by 3% against the previous year and is the lowest number on record (430)
    • the average time from offence to court completion rose to 225 days, the highest on record, highlighting an ongoing challenge for the justice system and victims
    • while there were encouraging decreases in the numbers and proportions of Black children at various stages in the system, the proportion of Mixed ethnicity children in custody has doubled over the last 10 years
    • almost two-thirds (62%) of children remanded to youth detention accommodation did not go on to receive a custodial sentence, this raises significant concerns
    • The proven reoffending rate for children increased to 32.5%, a 0.3 percentage point increase on the previous year, while the number of children and the number of children who reoffended both increased for the first time in the last 10 years.
    • There were reductions in knife and weapon offences, a fall of 6% compared with the previous year and the sixth consecutive year-on-year decrease.

    In addition to the above findings, arrests of children remained stable, even as adult arrests increased by 8%. Despite widespread media coverage and the consequential public perception that children are responsible for a disproportionate amount of criminal activity, arrests of children accounted for just 8% of total arrests.

    There were reductions in knife and weapon offences, a fall of 6% compared with the previous year and the sixth consecutive year-on-year decrease. Although 20% higher than 10 years ago, this shows that local efforts to bring down offences involving weapons are having an impact.

    Court timeliness

    The average time it takes from offence to court completion has not bounced back and is on average 4 days longer than what we saw during the pandemic when there were court closures.

    This is very troubling because delays place a significant strain on children and victims who are looking to move forward in their lives and potentially delaying justice and delaying them from accessing the right support at the right time.

     We believe that the court system needs major changes. We’re working with the Crown Prosecution Service and HM Courts and Tribunals Service to advocate for the Child First framework, which focuses on creating fair and efficient processes for children, cutting down delays, and achieving better results for everyone involved.

    Tackling over-representation

    There were encouraging improvements in reducing the over-representation of children from Black and Mixed ethnicities. However, we must be clear, any over-representation is unacceptable.

    It is of particular concern that the proportion of children with a Mixed ethnicity in custody has doubled over the last decade. This is a stark reminder of the need for systemic reform.  

    We will continue to build partnerships, promote good practice and provide targeted support in community-based solutions such as through the London Accommodation Pathfinder (the LAP). The LAP prioritises boys of Black or Mixed  heritage facing remand to custody and supports them in a more appropriate and effective community setting.

    We continue to have significant concerns about the high use of remand, which means that hundreds of children experience the negative effects of custody and then go on to receive a community sentence, or no sentence at all. This creates additional trauma and exposure to criminality for the children, and also leads to unnecessary risk and costs for the general public.

    Keith Fraser, Chair of the Youth Justice Board, said:

    There are many positives within this report. The numbers of stop and searches and children entering the system for the first time fell once again after increasing in the previous year. The numbers of children in custody continued to fall, knife and weapon offences have reduced for the sixth consecutive year, and arrests and youth cautions/sentences have remained stable at a time when adult arrests rose by 8%.

    We must continue to build on these trends. The evidence tells us that the best way to prevent prolonged offending is to prevent bringing children into the justice system in the first place. This is the route to positive child outcomes, less crime, fewer victims and safer communities.

    I want to express my gratitude to everyone in the youth justice sector for their dedication and hard work. These reductions show that change is possible. Together, we can build on this momentum to ensure better outcomes for all children.

    Youth Justice Board media enquiries

    Youth Justice Board for England and Wales
    Clive House
    70 Petty France
    London
    SW1H 9EX

    Email comms@yjb.gov.uk

    For out-of-hours press queries 020 3334 3536

    Ends

    Notes to editors

    1. These statistics look at data for the youth justice system in England and Wales for the year ending March 2024 (where available). The publication considers the number of children (those aged 10 to 17) in the system, the offences they committed, the outcomes they received, their demographics and the trends over time.
    2. Youth Custody Statistics also incorporate young adults who have remained in the youth estate,
    3. In addition to the report, there is a summary infographic which highlights the main findings.
    4. This release includes dashboards showing local level data. The YJB does not comment on regional data or localised themes as often there are contexts specific to areas and communities which provide more valuable insight into local youth justice. The relevant local authority would be best placed to respond to requests for comment.

    Updates to this page

    Published 30 January 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Weight-loss without the sickness? Scientists seek to bypass popular obesity drug’s side effects How to harness the potential of weight-loss drugs without some of the unwelcome side-effects is the subject of a £1.2 million research project getting underway at the Rowett Institute and University College London.

    Source: University of Aberdeen

    Professor Lora HeislerHow to harness the potential of weight-loss drugs without some of the unwelcome side-effects is the subject of a £1.2 million research project getting underway at the Rowett Institute and University College London.
    Semaglutide, which acts in the brain to reduce food intake, has fast become one of the most effective pharmaceutical weapons in the global battle against obesity.
    GLP1-based obesity medicines are the subject of intense public debate as governments seek to harness their public health potential.
    But semaglutide’s positive impact on weight loss is sometimes offset by nausea and vomiting, which can reduce its benefits by putting patients off sticking to a course of treatment.
    Now a team led by Professor Lora Heisler of the University of Aberdeen’s Rowett Institute and Professor Stefan Trapp at UCL  – funded by the Medical Research Council – will spend three years identifying where semaglutide acts in the brain to influence specific aspects of food intake such as meal size, healthier food choices, delaying digestion and dampening the “feel-good” food effect, and also where it acts to produce the unpleasant nausea side effects.
    The project will involve careful statistical analysis of the resulting data by research colleagues from Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS).
    Answering these questions will fill large gaps in our current understanding of precisely how the drug works.

    We can only now do these types of studies because of the latest technological advances, and we expect our results will provide the blueprint to develop even better obesity medications in the future.” Professor Lora Heisler

    Professor Heisler’s laboratory at the Rowett Institute recently identified a cluster of brain cells that can be harnessed to reduce food intake and body weight – without the nausea, the common side effect of this class of obesity medicines.
    Speaking about the new project, Professor Heisler said: “There is huge interest in how the brain targets of semaglutide (Wegovy) and similar drugs such as tirzepatide (Mounjaro) could be switched on in a slightly different or more targeted way. Drugs that can do this could work better, have effects that last longer and produce specific therapeutic obesity treatment benefits without the nausea side effect.
    “This research could also lead to new drugs that are produced as pills instead of injectables, thereby reducing costs and increasing availability.
    “We can only now do these types of studies because of the latest technological advances, and we expect our results will provide the blueprint to develop even better obesity medications in the future. “
    Professor Trapp added: “While semaglutide and similar drugs have been very effective in helping people with diabetes and show much promise in helping people to lose weight, we still do not know that much about how exactly they work in the brain.
    “My lab has done extensive research for years into the glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R) in the brain, which semaglutide targets, so we hope by mapping out the drug’s mechanism more precisely, we will be able to develop more effective drugs with fewer side effects.”

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Payments statistics: first half of 2024

    Source: European Central Bank

    30 January 2025

    The European Central Bank (ECB) today published statistics on non-cash payments for the first half of 2024.[2]The statistics comprise indicators on access to and use of payment services, payment cards and terminals by the public, as well as volumes and values of transactions processed through retail and large-value payment systems. This press release focuses on developments in the euro area as a whole, although statistics are also published for all euro area countries as well as non-euro area reporting countries. EU and euro area aggregates are also published.[3]

    Payment services[4]

    In the first half of 2024, the total number of non-cash payment transactions[5] in the euro area increased by 7.4% to 72.1 billion compared with the first half of 2023, while the corresponding total value increased by 1.9% to €113.5 trillion. Card payments accounted for 56% of the total number of transactions, while credit transfers accounted for 22%, direct debits for 15% and e-money payments for 6%. The remaining 1% comprised cheques, money remittances and other payment services (see annex, Table 1).

    Chart 1

    Use of the main payment services in the euro area

    (number of transactions in billions, graph on the right-hand-side refers to half-yearly data)

    Source: ECB.
    Note: Data have been partially estimated for periods prior to 2010, as methodological changes were implemented in those years and some data are not directly available. The historical estimations done by the ECB ensure comparability of figures over the entire period. Statistics were also collected for cheques, money remittances and other payment services which together accounted for 1% of the total number of non-cash euro area payment transactions in the first half of 2024.

    Data on payment services

    Card payments

    In the first half of 2024 the number of card payments within the euro area increased by 10.3% to 40.1 billion compared with the first half of 2023. The corresponding total value of card payments rose by 7.0% to €1.5 trillion, reflecting an average value of around €39 per transaction. The split in the share of remote and non-remote[6] transactions in the total number of card payments was 18% to 82%, while the split in terms of value was 28% to 72%. The number of contactless card payments initiated at a physical electronic funds transfer point of sale terminal increased by 13.2% to 25.8 billion compared with the first half of 2023, with the corresponding total value rising by 13.1% to €0.7 trillion. As a result, their share in the total number of non-remote card payments accounted for 79%, while the corresponding share in terms of value was 62%. At the national level, Lithuania continued to have the largest share of card payments as a percentage of the total number of non-cash payments in the first half of 2024, at around 78% (see annex, Table 2).

    Credit transfers[7]

    In the first half of 2024 the number of credit transfers within the euro area increased by 7.7% to 15.7 billion compared with the first half of 2023, while the corresponding total value increased by 1.7% to €105.2 trillion. As higher-value payments are usually made by credit transfer[8], they accounted for 93% of the total value of non-cash payments. The ratio of transactions initiated electronically to those initiated using paper forms was around 16 to 1, while in terms of value the ratio was around 12 to 1. At the national level, Latvia had the largest share of credit transfers as a percentage of the total number of non-cash payments in the first half of 2024, at around 37% (see annex, Table 2).

    Direct debits

    In the first half of 2024 the number of direct debits within the euro area increased by 2.7% to 11.0 billion compared with the first half of 2023, and the corresponding total value rose by 5.8% to €5.3 trillion. Of the total number of direct debits, those with an electronic mandate accounted for 12% whereas those with consent given in other forms accounted for 88%, while in terms of value the split was 13% to 87%. At the national level, Germany continued to have the largest share of direct debits as a percentage of the total number of non-cash payments in the first half of 2024, at around 32% (see annex, Table 2).

    E-money payments

    In the first half of 2024 the number of e-money payment transactions within the euro area declined by 2.7% to 4.2 billion compared with the first half of 2023, while the corresponding value rose by 6.6% to €0.3 trillion. Of the total number of e-money payment transactions, those made with e-money accounts accounted for 91% whereas those made with cards on which e-money can be stored accounted for 9%, while in terms of value the split was 88% to 12%.

    Cards and accepting devices

    At the end of the first half of 2024 the number of cards with a payment function[9] had increased by 4.4% to 720.6 million compared with the number at the end of the first half of 2023. With a total euro area population of around 352 million, this implies an average of two payment cards per euro area inhabitant.

    At the end of the first half of 2024 the total number of automated teller machines (ATMs) in the euro area had decreased by 3.0% to around 260.9 thousand compared with the number at the end of the first half of 2023. Of these, 30% accepted contactless transactions.

    At the end of the first half of 2024 the total number of point of sale (POS) terminals had increased by 10.1% to around 20.8 million[10] compared with the corresponding number at the end of the first half of 2023. Of these terminals, 86% accepted contactless transactions.

    Payment systems[11]

    Retail payment systems

    Retail payment systems located in the euro area handle mainly payments that are made by individuals and businesses, with a relatively low value and high volume overall.

    In the first half of 2024, 34 retail payment systems within the euro area processed around 52.1 billion transactions with a combined value of €25.1 trillion. Instant credit transfers accounted for 15% of the total number and for 4% of the total value of credit transfer transactions processed by euro area retail payment systems.

    Retail payment systems located in the euro area differ significantly in terms of type, size and geographical scope of transactions they process. The three largest systems (MCMS[12], STEP2-T[13] and CORE in France) processed 64% of the volume and 62% of the value of all transactions processed by the retail payment systems located in the euro area in the first half of 2024.

    Chart 2

    Main retail payment systems located in the euro area, values and numbers of transactions processed in the first half of 2024

    (value of transactions in EUR trillions and number of transactions in billions)

    Source: ECB.

    Data on retail payment systems

    Large-value payment systems

    Large-value payment systems are designed primarily to process large-value and/or high-priority payments made between system participants for their own account or on behalf of their customers. 

    In the first half of 2024, large-value payment systems located in the euro area settled 72.0 million payments with a total value of €222.5 trillion in euro payments, with T2 and EURO1/STEP1 being the two main systems.[14]

    Chart 3

    Main large-value payment systems located in the euro area, values and numbers of transactions processed in the first half of 2024

    (value of transactions in EUR trillions and number of transactions in millions)

    Source: ECB.

    Data on large-value payment systems

    Notes:

    • The full set of payment statistics can be downloaded from the ECB Data Portal (EDP). The EDP also includes interactive dashboards supporting data visualization. Detailed methodological information, including a list of all data definitions, is available under “Payment services and large-value and retail payment systems” in the “Statistics” section of the ECB’s website.
    • The methodological and reporting framework for payments statistics was enhanced to take progressive developments in the payments market and related changes in the legal framework in Europe into account. The enhanced reporting requirements, which came into effect on 1 January 2022, are set out in Regulation ECB/2020/59 amending Regulation ECB/2013/43 on payments statistics and in Guideline ECB/2021/13 on reporting requirements on payments statistics. In addition, the Manual on payments statistics reporting is available on the ECB’s website.
    • Hyperlinks in the main body of the press release and in annex tables lead to data that may change with subsequent releases as a result of revisions. Figures shown in annex tables are a snapshot of the data at the time of the current release. Unless otherwise indicated, statistics referring to the euro area cover the EU Member States that had adopted the euro at the time to which the data relate.

    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-OSI Banking: Rise in US stocks benefits stock funds

    Source: Danmarks Nationalbank

    Investment funds

    Statistics period: December 2024

    Danish private investors investing in stock funds received a return of 19.7 per cent in 2024. The high return in 2024 was primarily due to large gains on US stocks – including technology stocks such as NVIDIA, Apple og Amazon. Around half of the return in Danish investment funds in 2024, measured in kroner, came from US stocks. The returns in bond funds and mixed funds were also at higher levels in 2024 compared to previous years. Bond funds achieved a return of 4.3 per cent, while mixed funds, which invests in both stocks and bonds, ended up with a return of 10.6 per cent. In previous years, these funds have not given nearly as high returns as equity funds due to their investments in bonds, which resulted in losses after interest rates rose. When interest rates fell again, this resulted in capital gains and positive bond returns.



    Stock funds achieved a return of 19.7 per cent in 2024

    Note:

    Private investors (employees etc.) time weighted returns in investment funds by main categories of the funds: stocks, bonds, and mixed. Data covers Danish investment funds, regulated by the Danish Investment Associations etc. Act (i.e., UCITS). Find chart data in the Statbank.

    MIL OSI Global Banks

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Share of new electric vehicles falls in 2024

    Source: Switzerland – Department of Home Affairs

    After years of at times strong growth, the all-electric vehicle share of new registrations fell slightly in 2024. For passenger cars this figure fell to 19.0% (down from 20.7% in 2023) and for goods vehicles to 8.6% (2023: 12.2%). Overall, the number of new motor vehicle registrations in 2024 was 2.9% lower than in the previous year. The total number of vehicles nevertheless increased by 0.9% to 6.5 million. These findings are from the official Road Vehicle Statistics published by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-Evening Report: Will new $10,000 apprentice payments help solve job shortages in construction? Not anytime soon

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pi-Shen Seet, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Edith Cowan University

    In an election pitch last week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced new incentive payments of $10,000 for eligible apprentices in residential construction.

    The federal government has committed to an ambitious target of building 1.2 million new homes over the next five years through the National Housing Accord. That means it urgently needs to boost Australia’s construction workforce.

    But a recent strategic review into incentives for Australian apprentices and trainees found cost-of-living pressures were a major barrier to apprenticeship entry and completion.

    Only about half of apprentices currently finish their apprenticeships.

    The new program has been touted as the federal government’s initial response. It will target 62,690 apprentices and cost $627 million.

    But previous attempts to attract new apprentices with cash payments have had mixed results. A similar 2023 scheme to get more tradies into “green jobs” only attracted about 2,200 sign-ups in the first year.

    There are also concerns the new scheme may have unintended consequences, such as diverting talent from important sectors of the new economy – including the previous “green jobs” scheme.




    Read more:
    There may not be enough skilled workers in Australia’s pipeline for a post-COVID-19 recovery


    How will it work?

    From July 1, eligible apprentices in the new Housing Construction Apprenticeship Program will receive five payments of $2,000 each: after six, 12, 24 and 36 months, and upon completion. The payments are staged to encourage apprentices to complete their training.

    Cash payments won’t be the only new financial incentive. There’ll also be a boost to the Living Away From Home Allowance to help cover the costs of relocating, while an increase in the Disability Australian Apprentice Wage Support payment provides financial support to employers who hire apprentices with disability.




    Read more:
    Albanese to promise $10,000 for apprentices in housing construction


    Will the scheme succeed?

    The government’s previous attempts to address chronic labour shortages through cash incentives have had mixed results.

    Introduced in 2023, the New Energy Apprenticeships Program also offers $10,000 in staged payments to apprentices in priority green roles, such as electric vehicle technicians.

    Despite 2,200 apprentices joining in the first year, the program was deemed too restrictive by the industry. That was despite employers themselves receiving $15,000 per apprentice (which is also what is proposed for the construction scheme).




    Read more:
    Yes, we know there is a ‘skills shortage’. Here are 3 jobs summit ideas to start fixing it right away


    As part of the strategic review, the Centre for International Economics was commissioned to conduct an international literature review. It found that financial incentives such as wage or training subsidies and incentives were only “somewhat relevant” to the Australian context, and there was mixed support, at best, for their effectiveness.

    A major factor behind the mixed results may be the crowding-out effect in economic theory.

    This suggests that increasing public spending (by giving financial incentives) could undermine the intended effect by reducing or even eliminating private-sector investment. And it does not address apprehension among employers, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, about taking on more apprentices.

    More than six months after the government expanded eligibility for clean energy work, the green energy sector continues to face significant skills shortages.

    While these payments may help in the long run, their staggered nature over three years won’t provide immediate relief.

    The plan will likely only contribute to the government’s home-building targets by 2029, if and when more Australians enrol and complete their apprenticeships in the construction sector.

    Will this have effects outside the construction industry?

    More strategically, by shifting the focus from “new economy” industries outlined in the Future Made in Australia policy, this scheme risks weakening efforts to transform Australia’s economy.




    Read more:
    Australia has a new National Skills Agreement. What does this mean for vocational education?


    The cash incentive for apprentices in home-building comes at a time when there is intense global competition for skills in “new industries”.

    However, despite the many state and federal government initiatives for fee-free TAFE courses since the COVID pandemic, recently released data indicates a continued trend of long-term decline in Vocational Education and Training (VET) enrolments.

    Albanese was asked about the government’s commitment to technology and digital innovation, with increasing global competition in artificial intelligence.

    He responded by discussing the government’s commitment to the “new economy”.

    However, the construction sector has until now not been identified as an essential part of the new economy’s priority industries by the government.

    Instead, expanding incentives to construction apprentices marks a shift away from the priorities on green energy and new industries, and towards more traditional trades.

    The cash incentives could divert school leavers from considering apprenticeships in key future industries. That is something that schemes such as the new energy program were specifically designed to do in response to multiple skills and training reviews over the past two decades.

    So, despite the lack of evidence that cash incentives work, and the fact they may cause unintended effects, the proposed incentive payments appear to be a pitch addressing cost-of-living/cost-of-building concerns for the upcoming election.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Will new $10,000 apprentice payments help solve job shortages in construction? Not anytime soon – https://theconversation.com/will-new-10-000-apprentice-payments-help-solve-job-shortages-in-construction-not-anytime-soon-248446

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI China: Chinese Lunar New Year’s Eve sees over 200 million inter-regional trips across China

    Source: China State Council Information Office 2

    Some 204.39 million inter-regional trips were made in China on Tuesday, the Chinese Lunar New Year’s Eve, according to official statistics.
    Of the total, 194.18 million trips were taken by road, 7.76 million by rail, 1.86 million by air and 587,000 on water, according to a special work team established to facilitate the sound operations of this year’s Spring Festival travel rush.
    The Spring Festival, or the Chinese Lunar New Year, is the most important holiday in China and an occasion for family reunions. It falls on Jan. 29 this year.
    Chinese authorities expect an unprecedented 9 billion inter-regional trips during this year’s Spring Festival travel period, which began on Jan. 14 and will continue to Feb. 22. The figure is forecast to rise by 7 percent from the peak travel season of the last year’s Spring Festival.
    Around 197.02 million inter-regional trips are expected in China on Wednesday, according to the work team.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI USA: KEY MOMENTS: In Back-to-Back Nomination Hearings, Luján Presses RFK Jr. and Howard Lutnick on their Commitment to Working for the American People

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator Ben Ray Luján (D-New Mexico)

    Washington, D.C. – Today, U.S. Senator Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), a member of the Senate Committee on Finance and the Senate Committee on Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, pressed Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Howard Lutnick in their respective nomination hearings on their commitment to preserving programs that provide critical services for New Mexicans. Senator Luján pressed both nominees on their commitment to upholding the law and serving the American people – not being a rubber stamp for the President.

    In the nomination hearing for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to become Secretary of Health and Human Services, Senator Luján questioned Mr. Kennedy on his understanding of the importance of Medicaid and pressed Mr. Kennedy for his commitment to protect Medicaid from cuts. Mr. Kennedy did not commit to not cutting Medicaid if asked to by the President.

    In the nomination hearing for Howard Lutnick to become Secretary of Commerce, Senator Luján questioned Mr. Lutnick on whether he would commit to not cutting funding that has been awarded to connect thousands of New Mexicans to the internet. Despite Mr. Lutnick’s acknowledgement of the importance of broadband buildout, he would not commit to maintaining crucial support for broadband.  

    Key Moments from the Nomination Hearing for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to become Secretary of Health and Human Services:

    Watch the exchange with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. here.

    On Medicare:

    Sen. Luján: Do you know how many babies born in this country are covered through Medicaid?

    Mr. Kennedy: I would guess, I don’t know the answer, I would guess about 30 million.

    Sen. Luján: I have it Mr. Kennedy, about 41% or 1.4 million babies, births are financed by Medicaid according to the National Center for Health Statistics.

    Sen. Luján: If President Trump asks you to cut Medicaid will you do it?

    Mr. Kennedy: It’s not up to me to cut Medicaid, it’d be up to Congress.

    Sen. Luján: Mr. Kennedy, if you don’t want to answer, I’ll move on.

    On Native American Health:

    Sen. Luján: What are you going to do when programs are eliminated to require the inclusion of Native Americans in clinical trials when it comes to life-saving medicine?

    Mr. Kennedy: I’m going to do everything I can to make sure there are Native American trials.

    Sen. Luján: Will you commit to finalizing the Congressionally mandated FDA guidance to increase clinical trial diversity?

    Mr. Kennedy: Yes.

    Sen. Luján: Will you commit to reinstating all of the pages that were eliminated and people that were fired from this administration that have this responsibility?

    Mr. Kennedy, in part: I cannot commit to that.

    On Autism Services:

    Sen. Luján: I ask unanimous consent to enter into the record and article from Autism Speaks titled “Do Vaccines Cause Autism” and I’ll note that the first sentence states “Vaccines do not cause autism.”

    Key Moments from the Nomination Hearing for Howard Lutnick to become Secretary of Commerce:

    Watch the exchange with Howard Lutnick here.

    Sen. Luján: If you’re asked to cut that program (broadband access) by the President of the United States, will you?

    Mr. Lutnick: I work for him.

    Sen. Luján: Is your response that if the president asks you to cut broadband infrastructure funding, you will do that? Is that what I just heard?

    Mr. Lutnick, in part: I work for the President of the United States, and I am here to executive his policies.

    Sen. Luján: We have a responsibility to communicate to each other for the people we work for. It’s not that you just work for Donald Trump sir, you work for the American people if you get this position.

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: UK redoubles Horizon push as Kyle forges deeper R&I links with EU

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments 2

    UK Science and Tech Secretary announces renewed push to turbo-charge UK-EU science and technology links, to tackle shared global challenges.

    • UK Science and Tech Secretary announces renewed push to turbo-charge UK-EU science and technology links, to tackle shared global challenges
    • Peter Kyle met colleagues in the European Commission, yesterday, to discuss how to strengthen and deepen European science and tech ties
    • New campaign to drive UK participation in Horizon Europe, and UK joins cutting-edge European research consortia

    New plans have been unveiled to make Britain’s science and technology links with the EU stronger and deeper, following a fruitful visit to Brussels by the UK’s Science and Technology Secretary, to meet some of the new slate of European Commissioners.

    Today (Thursday 30 January) the government is announcing the launch of a new nationwide advertising campaign to further boost UK participation in Horizon Europe, the world’s largest programme of research collaboration. The UK is also joining 4 European Research Infrastructure Consortia (ERICs) to further boost collaborative ties between researchers, across the Channel.

    The EU is an innovation powerhouse – spending over €380 billion on R&D in 2023(1) – and fostering deep and high-quality links between the continent’s brightest minds, and the UK’s, will be critical if we are to seize the promise for science and tech innovations to support the Government’s Missions to grow the economy, fix the NHS and improve health outcomes and deliver clean energy under the Plan for Change. As the plan sets out, promoting innovation and world-class research will be foundational to rebuilding the foundations of the economy, and kickstarting growth.

    The recent AI Opportunities Action Plan – this government’s plan to unleash AI to deliver a decade of national renewal – also highlighted how close cooperation with our European allies on the latest technologies will be critical to our shared prosperity and wellbeing. An example of this is the UK’s involvement in the EuroHPC Joint Undertaking, which is developing a world-class supercomputing infrastructure across the European continent.

    Peter Kyle’s visit saw him hold high-level talks with Commissoners Zaharieva, Kubilius, and McGrath, to discuss how the UK and the EU can tackle some of the biggest problems facing the world, and grow our economies, by working together to seize the enormous potential of science and tech breakthroughs from AI to life sciences.

    UK Science and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle said:

    There is no question about it: we stand our best chance of tackling the great challenges of our era, from climate change to public health, to growing economies that work for everyone, by bringing the brightest minds from across the UK and the European Union, together.

    The UK is determined to give our researchers, innovators and businesses the opportunities and platforms they need to bring their great ideas to life, to the benefit of us all – all of which is highlighted by our new Horizon ad campaign. I’m pleased to have had such fruitful conversations with my European friends and colleagues, on taking this vital partnership even further.

    Recent, initial signs suggest UK association to Horizon is trending in the right direction. For instance, in the latest ERC Synergy Grants, in which the UK hosted 18 projects – the second highest number. But the government is determined to go even further to help our innovators seize this opportunity.

    The advertising campaign will bring the potential benefits of Horizon participation to life by shining a light on examples of businesses and researchers, right across the UK, who have benefited from funding. That includes Nova Innovation, a company developing turbines for the tidal energy industry, and Electra Commercial vehicles, who are developing electric trucks that can go further without needing to recharge.

    It is part of comprehensive action to support the effective uptake of opportunities in Horizon Europe, including events, financial and networking support. The roadshow events across the country have offered insights into bidding and networking opportunities, while Pump Priming grants, in collaboration with the British Academy and Innovate UK, are designed to support the establishment of consortia and development of high-quality applications.

    There are further plans to help British business people and researchers network with potential European R&D partners, as Innovate UK will take UK delegations to Italy, Germany and Spain for a series of Horizon Europe Brokerage events. These events will also help those involved work on how to build the best possible bids for Horizon funding together with their overseas colleagues.

    The 4 European Research Infrastructure Consortia the UK is joining are:

    These partnerships will enable UK researchers to collaborate on projects ranging from historical research, to astronomy, to advanced river systems studies.

    Sources

    1. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/

    DSIT media enquiries

    Email press@dsit.gov.uk

    Monday to Friday, 8:30am to 6pm 020 7215 300

    Updates to this page

    Published 30 January 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI: Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. Q4 2024 Results

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    SEATTLE, Jan. 29, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) —  Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) (Nasdaq: SFBC), the holding company for Sound Community Bank (the “Bank”), today reported net income of $1.9 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, or $0.74 diluted earnings per share, as compared to net income of $1.2 million, or $0.45 diluted earnings per share, for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, and $1.2 million, or $0.47 diluted earnings per share, for the quarter ended December 31, 2023. The Company also announced today that its Board of Directors declared a cash dividend on the Company’s common stock of $0.19 per share, payable on February 26, 2025 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on February 12, 2025.

    Comments from the President and Chief Executive Officer  
     
    “The Bank ended the year with many positives, including a 15-basis-point increase in net interest margin compared to the third quarter of 2024. This was largely due to our significant progress in reducing deposit costs, which fell by 16 basis points,” remarked Laurie Stewart, President and Chief Executive Officer. “Additionally, nonperforming loans decreased by 11.8% from the third quarter, and for the first time in more than a decade, we have no OREO,” concluded Ms. Stewart.

    “Notable progress was made in reducing funding costs during the quarter and in controlling expenses throughout the entire year. We hope to continue this momentum in 2025. Our staff across the company played an important role in these accomplishments by focusing on client relationships and increasing efficiencies through technological improvements,” explained Wes Ochs, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    Mr. Ochs continued, “We ended the year with the same balance sheet strategy that we used to close out 2023, which helped reduce the Bank’s asset size below $1 billion. This strategy is intended to provide the Bank with additional operational flexibility and continued cost savings in 2025.”

    Q4 2024 Financial Performance
    Total assets decreased $107.3 million or 9.7% to $993.6 million at December 31, 2024, from $1.10 billion at September 30, 2024, and decreased $1.6 million or 0.2% from $995.2 million at December 31, 2023.     Net interest income increased $347 thousand or 4.4% to $8.2 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, from $7.9 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, and increased $653 thousand or 8.6% from $7.6 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2023.
       
        Net interest margin (“NIM”), annualized, was 3.13% for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, compared to 2.98% for the quarter ended September 30, 2024 and 3.04% for the quarter ended December 31, 2023.
    Loans held-for-portfolio decreased $1.6 million or 0.2% to $900.2 million at December 31, 2024, compared to $901.7 million at September 30, 2024, and increased $5.7 million or 0.6% from $894.5 million at December 31, 2023.    
        A $14 thousand provision for credit losses was recorded for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, compared to an $8 thousand provision and a $27 thousand release of provision for credit losses for the quarters ended September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively. At December 31, 2024, the allowance for credit losses on loans to total loans outstanding was 0.94%, compared to 0.95% at September 30, 2024 and 0.98% December 31, 2023.
    Total deposits decreased $92.4 million or 9.9% to $837.8 million at December 31, 2024, from $930.2 million at September 30, 2024, and increased $11.3 million or 1.4% from $826.5 million at December 31, 2023. Noninterest-bearing deposits increased $2.8 million or 2.2% to $132.5 million at December 31, 2024 compared to $129.7 million at September 30, 2024, and increased $5.8 million or 4.6% compared to $126.7 million at December 31, 2023.    
        Total noninterest income decreased $75 thousand or 6.1% to $1.2 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, compared to the quarter ended September 30, 2024, and increased $94 thousand or 8.8% compared to the quarter ended December 31, 2023.
    The loans-to-deposits ratio was 108% at December 31, 2024, compared to 97% at September 30, 2024 and 108% at December 31, 2023.    
        Total noninterest expense decreased $621 thousand or 8.1% to $7.1 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, compared to the quarter ended September 30, 2024, and decreased $248 thousand or 3.4% compared to the quarter ended December 31, 2023.
    Total nonperforming loans decreased $998 thousand or 11.8% to $7.5 million at December 31, 2024, from $8.5 million at September 30, 2024, and increased $3.9 million or 110.7% from $3.6 million at December 31, 2023. Nonperforming loans to total loans was 0.83% and the allowance for credit losses on loans to total nonperforming loans was 113.46% at December 31, 2024.    
        The Bank continued to maintain capital levels in excess of regulatory requirements and was categorized as “well-capitalized” at December 31, 2024.
           

    Operating Results

    Net interest income increased $347 thousand, or 4.4%, to $8.2 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, compared to $7.9 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, and increased $653 thousand, or 8.6%, from $7.6 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2023.The increase from the prior quarter was primarily the result of lower funding costs and an increase in average yield on loans receivable and investments, partially offset by a decrease in the average balance and yield on interest-bearing cash. The increase in net interest income compared to the same quarter one year ago was primarily due to a higher average yield on interest-earning assets, particularly loans receivable and investments, and an increase in the average balances of both loans receivable and interest-bearing cash, partially offset by a lower average yield on interest-bearing cash and higher funding costs.

    Interest income decreased $102 thousand, or 0.7%, to $14.7 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, compared to $14.8 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, and increased $1.4 million, or 10.5%, from $13.3 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2023. The decrease from the prior quarter was primarily due to a lower average balance of interest-bearing cash, and a 59 basis point decline in the average yield on interest-bearing cash, offset by a seven basis point increase in the average loan yield and a 16 basis point increase in the average yield on investments. The increase in interest income compared to the same quarter last year was due primarily to higher average balances of loans and interest-bearing cash, a 37 basis point increase in the average yield on loans, and a 43 basis point increase in the average yield on investments, partially offset by a decline in the average balance of investments and a 59 basis point decline in the average yield on interest-bearing cash.

    Interest income on loans increased $194 thousand, or 1.5%, to $13.1 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, compared to $12.9 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, and increased $1.0 million, or 8.6%, from $12.0 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2023. The average balance of total loans was $900.8 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, up from $898.6 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2024 and $884.7 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2023. The average yield on total loans was 5.77% for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, up from 5.70% for the quarter ended September 30, 2024 and 5.40% for the quarter ended December 31, 2023. The increase in the average loan yield during the current quarter, compared to both the prior quarter and the fourth quarter of 2023, was primarily due to the origination of new loans at higher interest rates. Additionally, variable-rate loans resetting to higher rates contributed to the increase in average yield compared to the prior quarters. The increase in the average balance during the current quarter compared to the prior quarter was primarily due to growth in commercial and multifamily loans, manufactured housing loans and floating home loans. This was partially offset by a decline in construction and land loans and commercial business loans. The average balances for one-to-four family loans, home equity loans, and other consumer loans remained relatively flat from the third quarter of 2024. The increase in the average balance of loans during the current quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 was primarily due to loan growth across all categories, except for one-to-four family loans, construction and land loans, commercial business loans, and other consumer loans, with the largest decrease being in construction and land loans.

    Interest income on investments was $132 thousand for both the quarters ended December 31, 2024 and September 30, 2024, and $129 thousand for the quarter ended December 31, 2023. Interest income on interest-bearing cash decreased $296 thousand to $1.5 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, compared to $1.8 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, and increased $359 thousand from $1.2 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2023. The decrease from the prior quarter was due to decreases in the average yield and average balance of interest-bearing cash. The increase from the same quarter in the prior year was a result of a higher average balance, partially offset by a lower average yield.

    Interest expense decreased $449 thousand, or 6.4%, to $6.5 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, from $7.0 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, and increased $746 thousand, or 12.9%, from $5.8 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2023. The decrease in interest expense during the current quarter from the prior quarter was primarily the result of average balance decreases of $3.8 million in demand and NOW accounts, $2.3 million in certificate accounts and $9.5 million in FHLB advances, as well as lower average rates paid on all categories of interest-bearing deposits, partially offset by a $10.2 million increase in the average balance of savings and money market accounts. The increase in interest expense during the current quarter from the same quarter a year ago was primarily the result of a $91.9 million increase in the average balance of savings and money market accounts and a $1.3 million increase in the average balance of certificate accounts, as well as higher average rates paid on savings and money market accounts. This was partially offset by a $25.3 million decrease in the average balance of demand and NOW accounts and a $9.6 million decrease in the average balance of FHLB advances. The average cost of deposits was 2.58% for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, down from 2.74% for the quarter ended September 30, 2024 and up from 2.38% for the quarter ended December 31, 2023. The average cost of FHLB advances was 4.31% for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, down from 4.32% for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, and up from 4.26% for the quarter ended December 31, 2023.

    NIM (annualized) was 3.13% for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, up from 2.98% for the quarter ended September 30, 2024 and 3.04% for the quarter ended December 31, 2023. The increase in NIM from the prior quarter was the result of lower cost of funding, partially offset by a decrease in interest income on interest-earning assets. The increase in NIM from the quarter one year ago was primarily due to an increase in interest income on interest-earning assets, driven by the higher average balance in loans and interest-bearing cash and a higher yield earned on loans and investments, partially offset by a higher average balance of and cost of savings and money market accounts.

    A provision for credit losses of $14 thousand was recorded for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, consisting of a release of provision for credit losses on loans of $73 thousand and a provision for credit losses on unfunded loan commitments of $87 thousand. This compared to a provision for credit losses of $8 thousand for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, consisting of a provision for credit losses on loans of $106 thousand and a release of provision for credit losses on unfunded loan commitments of $98 thousand, and a release of provision for credit losses of $27 thousand for the quarter ended December 31, 2023, consisting of a provision for credit losses on loans of $337 thousand and a release of the provision for credit losses on unfunded loan commitments of $364 thousand. The increase in the provision for credit losses for the quarter ended December 31, 2024 compared to the quarter ended September 30, 2024 resulted primarily from an additional qualitative adjustment related to our loan review, additional enhancements to the loss model related to how we adjust for the qualitative component, including the utilization of a scorecard to drive managements analysis, and growth in our unfunded construction loan portfolio, which has a higher loss rate than our other loan portfolios. These increases were offset by lower reserves in both our floating home sub-segment of other consumer loans within our quantitative analysis and in our qualitative analysis related to market conditions and value of underlying collateral, as economic conditions have improved. Expected loss estimates consider various factors, such as market conditions, borrower-specific information, projected delinquencies, and the impact of economic conditions on borrowers’ ability to repay.

    Noninterest income decreased $75 thousand, or 6.1%, to $1.2 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, compared to the quarter ended September 30, 2024, and increased $94 thousand, or 8.8%, compared to the quarter ended December 31, 2023. The decrease from the prior quarter was primarily related to a $24 thousand downward adjustment in fair value of mortgage servicing rights and a $59 thousand decrease in earnings from bank-owned life insurance (“BOLI”), both influenced by fluctuating market interest rates. These decreases were partially offset by an increase of $13 thousand in net gain on sale of loans due to higher sales volume in the fourth quarter of 2024, and a $7 thousand increase in gain on disposal of assets due to insurance claims exceeding the book value on the replacement of stolen laptops in the second quarter of 2024. The increase in noninterest income from the same quarter of 2023 was primarily due an $43 thousand increase in service charges and fee income primarily due to increases in late fees on loans, higher interchange income and income related to a new, multi-year agreement with our credit card provider that was effective in 2024, a late fee on one commercial loan and higher specialty deposit fees due to fewer reversals of fees in 2024, a $173 thousand increase in the fair value adjustment on mortgage servicing rights due to changes in prepayment speeds, servicing costs, and discount rate, and a $7 thousand increase in gain on disposal of assets as noted above. These increases were partially offset by a $95 thousand decrease in earnings on BOLI due to market rate fluctuations, and a $23 thousand decrease in net gain on sale of loans due to fewer loans sold, and an $11 thousand decrease in mortgage servicing income as a result of the portfolio paying down at a faster rate than we are replacing the loans. Loans sold during the quarter ended December 31, 2024, totaled $3.5 million, compared to $2.4 million and $4.5 million of loans sold during the quarters ended September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.

    Noninterest expense decreased $621 thousand, or 8.1%, to $7.1 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, compared to the quarter ended September 30, 2024, and decreased $248 thousand, or 3.4%, from the quarter ended December 31, 2023. The decrease from the quarter ended September 30, 2024 was primarily a result of lower salaries and benefits and operations expenses, partially offset by higher data processing expense. Salaries and benefits decreased $549 thousand primarily due to lower incentive compensation, lower retirement plan expense due to fluctuating market rates, lower medical expense due to higher medical costs during the third quarter of 2024, and lower salaries expense, as well as higher deferred salaries due to higher loan production. Operations expense decreased $211 thousand primarily due to a reversal of state and local tax expense related to higher estimated tax payments made than actual tax due, and lower operational losses in the current quarter as the prior quarter included the charge-off of a fraudulently obtained loan. This was partially offset by an $165 thousand increase in data processing expenses, reflecting new technology implementation costs. Compared to same quarter in 2023, the decrease in noninterest expense was primarily due to lower operations expenses, occupancy expenses and data processing expenses, which were partially offset by a $118 thousand increase in salaries and benefits costs. Operations expenses decreased due to reduction in loan originations costs, office expenses, operational losses, charitable contributions and state and local taxes, partially offset by higher professional fees primarily related to costs for future FDIC Improvement Act implementation. Data processing expenses decreased due to lower costs related to our core processor, while occupancy expenses decreased primarily due to fully amortized leasehold improvements. The increase in salaries and benefits compared to the same quarter last year reflected higher incentive compensation, lower deferred salaries, higher medical expenses due primarily to a change in insurance providers, and a higher contribution to our employee stock ownership plan due to the increase in value of our stock in 2024. This was partially offset by lower retirement plan expenses due to fluctuating market rates and lower salaries from a restructuring of positions at the end of 2023.

    Balance Sheet Review, Capital Management and Credit Quality

    Assets at December 31, 2024 totaled $993.6 million, down from $1.10 billion at September 30, 2024 and $995.22 million at December 31, 2023. The decrease in total assets from September 30, 2024 was primarily due to decreases in cash and cash equivalents and loans held-for-portfolio. The decrease from one year ago was primarily a result of lower balances of cash and cash equivalents and investment securities, offset by an increase in loans held-for-portfolio.

    Cash and cash equivalents decreased $105.3 million, or 70.7%, to $43.6 million at December 31, 2024, compared to $148.9 million at September 30, 2024, and decreased $6.0 million, or 12.2%, from $49.7 million at December 31, 2023. The decrease from the prior quarter was primarily due to higher deposit withdrawals, as well as the strategic decision to sell reciprocal deposits at the end of the year. Cash and cash equivalents decreased from one year ago primarily due to the increase in loans held-for-portfolio and the payoff of one FHLB borrowing, partially offset by an increase in deposits.

    Investment securities decreased $251 thousand, or 2.5%, to $9.9 million at December 31, 2024, compared to $10.2 million at September 30, 2024, and decreased $533 thousand, or 5.1%, from $10.5 million at December 31, 2023. Held-to-maturity securities totaled $2.1 million at both December 31, 2024 and September 30, 2024, and totaled $2.2 million at December 31, 2023. Available-for-sale securities totaled $7.8 million at December 31, 2024, compared to $8.0 million at September 30, 2024 and $8.3 million at December 31, 2023.

    Loans held-for-portfolio were $900.2 million at December 31, 2024, compared to $901.7 million at September 30, 2024 and $894.5 million at December 31, 2023.

    Nonperforming assets (“NPAs”), which are comprised of nonaccrual loans (including nonperforming modified loans), other real estate owned (“OREO”) and other repossessed assets, decreased $1.1 million, or 12.9%, to $7.5 million at December 31, 2024, from $8.6 million at September 30, 2024 and increased $3.4 million, or 81.3%, from $4.1 million at December 31, 2023. The decrease in NPAs from September 30, 2024 was primarily due to the payoff of seven loans totaling $1.2 million, one loan totaling $76 thousand returning to accrual status, and sale of one other real estate owned property for $115 thousand for a small net gain on sale, partially offset by the addition of seven loans totaling $326 thousand to nonaccrual. The increase in NPAs from one year ago was primarily due to the placement of an additional $9.3 million of loans on nonaccrual status, which included a $3.7 million matured commercial real estate loan where the borrower is in the process of securing financing from another lender, and a $2.4 million floating home loan, all of which are well secured. These additions were partially offset by payoffs totaling $4.2 million, the return of $784 thousand of loans to accrual status, charge-offs of $142 thousand, the sale of two other real estate owned properties for $685 thousand, and normal loan payments.

    NPAs to total assets were 0.75%, 0.78% and 0.42% at December 31, 2024, September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively. The allowance for credit losses on loans to total loans outstanding was 0.94% at December 31, 2024, compared to 0.95% at September 30, 2024 and 0.98% at December 31, 2023. Net loan charge-offs for the fourth quarter of 2024 totaled $13 thousand, compared to $14 thousand for the third quarter of 2024, and $15 thousand for the fourth quarter of 2023.

    The following table summarizes our NPAs at the dates indicated (dollars in thousands):

      December 31,
    2024
      September 30,
    2024
      June 30,
    2024
      March 31,
    2024
      December 31,
    2023
    Nonperforming Loans:                  
    One-to-four family $ 537     $ 745     $ 822     $ 835     $ 1,108  
    Home equity loans   298       338       342       83       84  
    Commercial and multifamily   3,734       4,719       5,161       4,747        
    Construction and land   24       25       28       29        
    Manufactured homes   521       230       136       166       228  
    Floating homes   2,363       2,377       2,417       3,192        
    Commercial business   11       23                   2,135  
    Other consumer   3       32       3       1       1  
    Total nonperforming loans   7,491       8,489       8,909       9,053       3,556  
    OREO and Other Repossessed Assets:                  
    Commercial and multifamily                     575       575  
    Manufactured homes         115       115       115        
    Total OREO and repossessed assets         115       115       690       575  
    Total NPAs $ 7,491     $ 8,604     $ 9,024     $ 9,743     $ 4,131  
                       
    Percentage of Nonperforming Loans:                  
    One-to-four family   7.3 %     8.7 %     9.1 %     8.5 %     26.9 %
    Home equity loans   4.0       3.9       3.8       0.9       2.0  
    Commercial and multifamily   49.8       54.8       57.2       48.7        
    Construction and land   0.3       0.3       0.3       0.3        
    Manufactured homes   7.0       2.7       1.5       1.7       5.5  
    Floating homes   31.5       27.6       26.8       32.8        
    Commercial business   0.1       0.3                   51.7  
    Other consumer         0.4                    
    Total nonperforming loans   100.0       98.7       98.7       92.9       86.1  
    Percentage of OREO and Other Repossessed Assets:                  
    Commercial and multifamily                     5.9       13.9  
    Manufactured homes         1.3       1.3       1.2        
    Total OREO and repossessed assets         1.3       1.3       7.1       13.9  
    Total NPAs   100.0 %     100.0 %     100.0 %     100.0 %     100.0 %

    The following table summarizes the allowance for credit losses at the dates and for the periods indicated (dollars in thousands, unaudited):

      At or For the Quarter Ended:
      December 31,
    2024
      September 30,
    2024
      June 30,
    2024
      March 31,
    2024
      December 31,
    2023
    Allowance for Credit Losses on Loans                  
    Balance at beginning of period $ 8,585     $ 8,493     $ 8,598     $ 8,760     $ 8,438  
    (Release of) provision for credit losses during the period   (73 )     106       (88 )     (106 )     337  
    Net charge-offs during the period   (13 )     (14 )     (17 )     (56 )     (15 )
    Balance at end of period $ 8,499     $ 8,585     $ 8,493     $ 8,598     $ 8,760  
    Allowance for Credit Losses on Unfunded Loan Commitments                  
    Balance at beginning of period $ 147     $ 245     $ 266     $ 193     $ 557  
    Provision for (release of) provision for credit losses during the period   87       (98 )     (21 )     73       (364 )
    Balance at end of period   234       147       245       266       193  
    Allowance for Credit Losses $ 8,733     $ 8,732     $ 8,738     $ 8,864     $ 8,953  
    Allowance for credit losses on loans to total loans   0.94 %     0.95 %     0.96 %     0.96 %     0.98 %
    Allowance for credit losses to total loans   0.97 %     0.97 %     0.98 %     0.99 %     1.00 %
    Allowance for credit losses on loans to total nonperforming loans   113.46 %     101.13 %     95.33 %     94.97 %     246.34 %
    Allowance for credit losses to total nonperforming loans   116.58 %     102.86 %     98.08 %     97.91 %     251.77 %

    Total deposits decreased $92.4 million, or 9.9%, to $837.8 million at December 31, 2024, from $930.2 million at September 30, 2024 and increased $11.3 million, or 1.4%, from $826.5 million at December 31, 2023. The decrease in total deposits compared to the prior quarter-end was primarily a result of the movement of reciprocal deposits off balance sheet for strategic objectives at year-end, followed by the return of those deposits to our balance sheet in the first quarter of 2025, and a decrease in one high cost money market depositor relationship as part of our strategic decision to decrease our overall cost of funds. Noninterest-bearing deposits increased $2.8 million, or 2.2%, to $132.5 million at December 31, 2024, compared to $129.7 million at September 30, 2024 and increased $5.8 million, or 4.6%, from $126.7 million at December 31, 2023. Noninterest-bearing deposits represented 15.8%, 14.0% and 15.3% of total deposits at December 31, 2024, September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.

    FHLB advances totaled $25.0 million at December 31, 2024, compared to $40.0 million at both September 30, 2024, and December 31, 2023. The decrease from both prior dated was due to the repayment of a $15.0 million FHLB advance that matured in November 2024. FHLB advances are primarily used to support organic loan growth and to maintain liquidity ratios in line with our asset/liability objectives. FHLB advances outstanding at December 31, 2024 had maturities ranging from early 2026 through early 2028. Subordinated notes, net totaled $11.8 million at each of December 31, 2024, September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023.

    Stockholders’ equity totaled $103.7 million at December 31, 2024, an increase of $1.4 million, or 1.4%, from $102.2 million at September 30, 2024, and an increase of $3.0 million, or 3.0%, from $100.7 million at December 31, 2023. The increase in stockholders’ equity from September 30, 2024 was primarily the result of $1.9 million of net income earned during the current quarter, $98 thousand in share-based compensation, and $19 thousand in common stock options exercised, partially offset by a $122 thousand increase in accumulated other comprehensive loss, net of tax and the payment of $486 thousand in cash dividends to the Company’s stockholders.

    Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc., a bank holding company, is the parent company of Sound Community Bank, which is headquartered in Seattle, Washington and has full-service branches in Seattle, Tacoma, Mountlake Terrace, Sequim, Port Angeles, Port Ludlow and University Place. Sound Community Bank is a Fannie Mae Approved Lender and Seller/Servicer with one loan production office located in the Madison Park neighborhood of Seattle. For more information, please visit www.soundcb.com.

    Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer

    When used in this press release and in documents filed or furnished by Sound Financial Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), in the Company’s other press releases or other public or stockholder communications, and in oral statements made with the approval of an authorized executive officer, the words or phrases “will likely result,” “are expected to,” “will continue,” “is anticipated,” “estimate,” “project,” “intends” or similar expressions are intended to identify “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements, which are based on various underlying assumptions and expectations and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other unknown factors, may include projections of our future financial performance based on our growth strategies and anticipated trends in our business. These statements are only predictions based on our current expectations and projections about future events and may turn out to be wrong because of inaccurate assumptions we might make, because of the factors listed below or because of other factors that we cannot foresee that could cause our actual results to be materially different from historical results or from any future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date made.

    Factors which could cause actual results to differ materially, include, but are not limited to:adverse impacts to economic conditions in the Company’s local market areas, other markets where the Company has lending relationships, or other aspects of the Company’s business operations or financial markets, including, without limitation, as a result of employment levels, labor shortages and the effects of inflation or deflation, a recession or slowed economic growth, as well as supply chain disruptions; changes in the interest rate environment, including increases and decreases in the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the Federal Reserve) benchmark rate and the duration at which such interest rate levels are maintained, which could adversely affect our revenues and expenses, the values of our assets and obligations, and the availability and cost of capital and liquidity; the impact of inflation and the current and future monetary policies of the Federal Reserve in response thereto; the effects of any federal government shutdown; the impact of bank failures or adverse developments at other banks and related negative press about the banking industry in general on investor and depositor sentiment; changes in consumer spending, borrowing and savings habits; fluctuations in interest rates; the risks of lending and investing activities, including changes in the level and direction of loan delinquencies and write-offs and changes in estimates of the adequacy of the allowance for credit losses; the Company’s ability to access cost-effective funding; fluctuations in real estate values and both residential and commercial real estate market conditions; demand for loans and deposits in the Company’s market area; secondary market conditions for loans;expectations regarding key growth initiatives and strategic priorities; environmental, social and governance goals and targets; results of examinations of the Company or the Bank by their regulators; increased competition; changes in management’s business strategies; legislative changes; changes in the regulatory and tax environments in which the Company operates; disruptions, security breaches, or other adverse events, failures or interruptions in, or attacks on, our information technology systems or on our third-party vendors; the potential imposition of new tariffs or changes to existing trade policies that could affect economic activity or specific industry sector; the effects of climate change, severe weather events, natural disasters, pandemics, epidemics and other public health crises, acts of war or terrorism, civil unrest and other external events on our business; and other factors described in the Company’s latest Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and other documents filed with or furnished to the SEC, which are available at www.soundcb.com and on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. The risks inherent in these factors could cause the Company’s actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements made by, or on behalf of, the Company and could negatively affect the Company’s operating and stock performance.

    The Company does not undertake—and specifically disclaims any obligation—to revise any forward-looking statement to reflect the occurrence of anticipated or unanticipated events or circumstances after the date of such statement.

    CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENTS
    (Dollars in thousands, unaudited)
        For the Quarter Ended
        December 31,
    2024
      September 30,
    2024
      June 30,
    2024
      March 31,
    2024
      December 31,
    2023
    Interest income   $ 14,736     $ 14,838   $ 14,039     $ 13,760     $ 13,337  
    Interest expense     6,516       6,965     6,591       6,300       5,770  
    Net interest income     8,220       7,873     7,448       7,460       7,567  
    Provision for (release of) credit losses     14       8     (109 )     (33 )     (27 )
    Net interest income after provision for (release of) credit losses     8,206       7,865     7,557       7,493       7,594  
    Noninterest income:                    
    Service charges and fee income     619       628     761       612       576  
    Earnings on bank-owned life insurance     127       186     134       177       222  
    Mortgage servicing income     277       280     279       282       288  
    Fair value adjustment on mortgage servicing rights     77       101     (116 )     (65 )     (96 )
    Net gain on sale of loans     53       40     74       90       76  
    Other income     7           30              
    Total noninterest income     1,160       1,235     1,162       1,096       1,066  
    Noninterest expense:                    
    Salaries and benefits     3,920       4,469     4,658       4,543       3,802  
    Operations     1,329       1,540     1,569       1,457       1,537  
    Regulatory assessments     189       189     220       189       198  
    Occupancy     409       414     397       444       458  
    Data processing     1,232       1,067     910       1,017       1,311  
    Net (gain) loss on OREO and repossessed assets     (21 )         (17 )     6        
    Total noninterest expense     7,058       7,679     7,737       7,656       7,306  
    Income before provision for income taxes     2,308       1,421     982       933       1,354  
    Provision for income taxes     389       267     187       163       143  
    Net income   $ 1,919     $ 1,154   $ 795     $ 770     $ 1,211  
    CONSOLIDATED INCOME STATEMENTS
    (Dollars in thousands, unaudited)
         
        For theYear Ended December 31
          2024       2023  
    Interest income   $ 57,374     $ 50,609  
    Interest expense     26,372       16,759  
    Net interest income     31,002       33,850  
    (Release of) provision for credit losses     (120 )     (273 )
    Net interest income after (release of) provision for credit losses     31,122       34,123  
    Noninterest income:        
    Service charges and fee income     2,620       2,527  
    Earnings on bank-owned life insurance     625       1,179  
    Mortgage servicing income     1,118       1,179  
    Fair value adjustment on mortgage servicing rights     (4 )     (219 )
    Net gain on sale of loans     258       340  
    Other income     38        
    Total noninterest income     4,655       5,006  
    Noninterest expense:        
    Salaries and benefits     17,590       17,135  
    Operations     5,894       6,095  
    Regulatory assessments     787       688  
    Occupancy     1,665       1,810  
    Data processing     4,226       4,388  
    Net (gain) loss on OREO and repossessed assets     (31 )     13  
    Total noninterest expense     30,131       30,129  
    Income before provision for income taxes     5,646       9,000  
    Provision for income taxes     1,006       1,561  
    Net income   $ 4,640     $ 7,439  
    CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
    (Dollars in thousands, unaudited)




        December 31,
    2024
      September 30,
    2024
      June 30,
    2024
      March 31,
    2024
      December 31,
    2023
    ASSETS                    
    Cash and cash equivalents   $ 43,641     $ 148,930     $ 135,111     $ 137,977     $ 49,690  
    Available-for-sale securities, at fair value     7,790       8,032       7,996       8,115       8,287  
    Held-to-maturity securities, at amortized cost     2,130       2,139       2,147       2,157       2,166  
    Loans held-for-sale     487       65       257       351       603  
    Loans held-for-portfolio     900,171       901,733       889,274       897,877       894,478  
    Allowance for credit losses – loans     (8,499 )     (8,585 )     (8,493 )     (8,598 )     (8,760 )
    Total loans held-for-portfolio, net     891,672       893,148       880,781       889,279       885,718  
    Accrued interest receivable     3,471       3,705       3,413       3,617       3,452  
    Bank-owned life insurance, net     22,490       22,363       22,172       22,037       21,860  
    Other real estate owned (“OREO”) and other repossessed assets, net           115       115       690       575  
    Mortgage servicing rights, at fair value     4,769       4,665       4,540       4,612       4,632  
    Federal Home Loan Bank (“FHLB”) stock, at cost     1,730       2,405       2,406       2,406       2,396  
    Premises and equipment, net     4,697       4,807       4,906       6,685       5,240  
    Right-of-use assets     3,725       3,779       4,020       4,259       4,496  
    Other assets     7,031       6,777       6,995       4,500       6,106  
    TOTAL ASSETS   $ 993,633     $ 1,100,930     $ 1,074,859     $ 1,086,685     $ 995,221  
    LIABILITIES                    
    Interest-bearing deposits   $ 705,267     $ 800,480     $ 781,854     $ 788,217     $ 699,813  
    Noninterest-bearing deposits     132,532       129,717       124,915       128,666       126,726  
    Total deposits     837,799       930,197       906,769       916,883       826,539  
    Borrowings     25,000       40,000       40,000       40,000       40,000  
    Accrued interest payable     765       908       760       719       817  
    Lease liabilities     4,013       4,079       4,328       4,576       4,821  
    Other liabilities     9,371       9,711       9,105       9,578       9,563  
    Advance payments from borrowers for taxes and insurance     1,260       2,047       812       2,209       1,110  
    Subordinated notes, net     11,759       11,749       11,738       11,728       11,717  
    TOTAL LIABILITIES     889,967       998,691       973,512       985,693       894,567  
    STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY:                    
    Common stock     25       25       25       25       25  
    Additional paid-in capital     28,413       28,296       28,198       28,110       27,990  
    Retained earnings     76,272       74,840       74,173       73,907       73,627  
    Accumulated other comprehensive loss, net of tax     (1,044 )     (922 )     (1,049 )     (1,050 )     (988 )
    TOTAL STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY     103,666       102,239       101,347       100,992       100,654  
    TOTAL LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS’ EQUITY   $ 993,633     $ 1,100,930     $ 1,074,859     $ 1,086,685     $ 995,221  
    KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS
    (unaudited)
        For the Quarter Ended
        December 31,
    2024
      September 30,
    2024
      June 30,
    2024
      March 31,
    2024
      December 31,
    2023
    Annualized return on average assets   0.70 %   0.42 %   0.30 %   0.29 %   0.46 %
    Annualized return on average equity   7.40 %   4.50 %   3.17 %   3.06 %   4.78 %
    Annualized net interest margin(1)   3.13 %   2.98 %   2.92 %   2.95 %   3.04 %
    Annualized efficiency ratio(2)   75.25 %   84.31 %   89.86 %   89.48 %   84.63 %

    (1)   Net interest income divided by average interest earning assets.
    (2)   Noninterest expense divided by total revenue (net interest income and noninterest income).

    PER COMMON SHARE DATA
    (unaudited)
        At or For the Quarter Ended
        December 31, 2024   September 30, 2024   June 30, 2024   March 31, 2024   December 31, 2023
    Basic earnings per share   $ 0.75   $ 0.45   $ 0.31   $ 0.30   $ 0.47
    Diluted earnings per share   $ 0.74   $ 0.45   $ 0.31   $ 0.30   $ 0.47
    Weighted-average basic shares outstanding     2,547,210     2,544,233     2,540,538     2,539,213     2,542,175
    Weighted-average diluted shares outstanding     2,578,771     2,569,368     2,559,015     2,556,958     2,560,656
    Common shares outstanding at period-end     2,564,907     2,564,095     2,557,284     2,558,546     2,549,427
    Book value per share   $ 40.42   $ 39.87   $ 39.63   $ 39.47   $ 39.48

    AVERAGE BALANCE, AVERAGE YIELD EARNED, AND AVERAGE RATE PAID
    (Dollars in thousands, unaudited)

    The following tables present, for the periods indicated, the total dollar amount of interest income from average interest-earning assets and the resultant yields, as well as the interest expense on average interest-bearing liabilities, expressed both in dollars and rates. Income and yields on tax-exempt obligations have not been computed on a tax equivalent basis. All average balances are daily average balances. Nonaccrual loans have been included in the table as loans carrying a zero yield for the period they have been on nonaccrual (dollars in thousands).

      Three Months Ended
      December 31, 2024   September 30, 2024   December 31, 2023
      Average Outstanding Balance   Interest Earned/
    Paid
      Yield/
    Rate
      Average Outstanding Balance   Interest Earned/
    Paid
      Yield/
    Rate
      Average Outstanding Balance   Interest Earned/
    Paid
      Yield/
    Rate
    Interest-Earning Assets:                                  
    Loans receivable $ 900,832     $ 13,070   5.77 %   $ 898,570     $ 12,876   5.70 %   $ 884,677     $ 12,033   5.40 %
    Interest-earning cash   130,412       1,534   4.68 %     138,240       1,830   5.27 %     88,401       1,175   5.27 %
    Investments   13,263       132   3.96 %     13,806       132   3.80 %     14,479       129   3.53 %
    Total interest-earning assets $ 1,044,507       14,736   5.61 %     1,050,616     $ 14,838   5.62 %   $ 987,557       13,337   5.36 %
    Interest-Bearing Liabilities:                                  
    Savings and money market accounts $ 350,495       2,476   2.81 %   $ 340,281       2,688   3.14 %   $ 258,583       1,586   2.43 %
    Demand and NOW accounts   144,470       128   0.35 %     148,252       151   0.41 %     169,816       149   0.35 %
    Certificate accounts   301,293       3,413   4.51 %     303,632       3,524   4.62 %     300,042       3,436   4.54 %
    Subordinated notes   11,756       168   5.69 %     11,745       168   5.69 %     11,714       168   5.69 %
    Borrowings   30,546       331   4.31 %     40,000       434   4.32 %     40,109       431   4.26 %
    Total interest-bearing liabilities $ 838,560       6,516   3.09 %   $ 843,910       6,965   3.28 %   $ 780,264       5,770   2.93 %
    Net interest income/spread     $ 8,220   2.52 %       $ 7,873   2.34 %       $ 7,567   2.42 %
    Net interest margin         3.13 %           2.98 %           3.04 %
                                       
    Ratio of interest-earning assets to interest-bearing liabilities   125 %             124 %             127 %        
    Noninterest-bearing deposits $ 130,476             $ 132,762             $ 134,857          
    Total deposits   926,734     $ 6,017   2.58 %     924,927     $ 6,363   2.74 %     863,298     $ 5,171   2.38 %
    Total funding(1)   969,036       6,516   2.68 %     976,672       6,965   2.84 %     915,121       5,770   2.50 %

    (1)   Total funding is the sum of average interest-bearing liabilities and average noninterest-bearing deposits. The cost of total funding is calculated as annualized total interest expense divided by average total funding.

      Year Ended
      December 31, 2024   December 31, 2023
      Average
    Outstanding Balance
      Interest Earned/Paid   Yield/Rate   Average
    Outstanding Balance
      Interest Earned/Paid   Yield/Rate
    Interest-Earning Assets:                      
    Loans receivable $ 896,690     $ 50,499   5.63 %   $ 870,227     $ 46,470   5.34 %
    Interest-earning cash   124,259       6,367   5.12 %     74,708       3,621   4.85 %
    Investments   12,468       508   4.07 %     13,661       518   3.79 %
    Total interest-earning assets $ 1,033,417       57,374   5.55 %   $ 958,596       50,609   5.28 %
    Interest-Bearing Liabilities:                      
    Savings and money market accounts $ 319,314       9,145   2.86 %   $ 194,810       2,783   1.43 %
    Demand and NOW accounts   151,528       568   0.37 %     204,922       736   0.36 %
    Certificate accounts   309,441       14,363   4.64 %     280,238       10,617   3.79 %
    Subordinated notes   11,740       672   5.72 %     11,698       672   5.74 %
    Borrowings   37,623       1,624   4.32 %     43,977       1,951   4.44 %
    Total interest-bearing liabilities $ 829,646       26,372   3.18 %   $ 735,645       16,759   2.28 %
    Net interest income/spread     $ 31,002   2.37 %       $ 33,850   3.00 %
    Net interest margin         3.00 %           3.53 %
                           
    Ratio of interest-earning assets to interest-bearing liabilities   125 %             130 %        
    Noninterest-bearing deposits $ 131,141             $ 154,448          
    Total deposits   911,424     $ 24,076   2.64 %     834,418     $ 14,136   1.69 %
    Total funding(1)   960,787       26,372   2.74 %     890,093       16,759   1.88 %

    (1)   Total funding is the sum of average interest-bearing liabilities and average noninterest-bearing deposits. The cost of total funding is calculated as annualized total interest expense divided by average total funding.

    LOANS
    (Dollars in thousands, unaudited)



        December 31,
    2024
      September 30,
    2024
      June 30,
    2024
      March 31,
    2024
      December 31,
    2023
    Real estate loans:                    
    One-to-four family   $ 269,684     $ 271,702     $ 268,488     $ 279,213     $ 279,448  
    Home equity     26,686       25,199       26,185       24,380       23,073  
    Commercial and multifamily     371,516       358,587       342,632       324,483       315,280  
    Construction and land     73,077       85,724       96,962       111,726       126,758  
    Total real estate loans     740,963       741,212       734,267       739,802       744,559  
    Consumer Loans:                    
    Manufactured homes     41,128       40,371       38,953       37,583       36,193  
    Floating homes     86,411       86,155       81,622       84,237       75,108  
    Other consumer     17,720       18,266       18,422       18,847       19,612  
    Total consumer loans     145,259       144,792       138,997       140,667       130,913  
    Commercial business loans     15,605       17,481       17,860       19,075       20,688  
    Total loans     901,827       903,485       891,124       899,544       896,160  
    Less:                    
    Premiums     718       736       754       808       829  
    Deferred fees, net     (2,374 )     (2,488 )     (2,604 )     (2,475 )     (2,511 )
    Allowance for credit losses – loans     (8,499 )     (8,585 )     (8,493 )     (8,598 )     (8,760 )
    Total loans held-for-portfolio, net   $ 891,672     $ 893,148     $ 880,781     $ 889,279     $ 885,718  
    DEPOSITS
    (Dollars in thousands, unaudited)



        December 31,
    2024
      September 30,
    2024
      June 30,
    2024
      March 31,
    2024
      December 31,
    2023
    Noninterest-bearing demand   $ 132,532   $ 129,717   $ 124,915   $ 128,666   $ 126,726
    Interest-bearing demand     142,126     148,740     152,829     159,178     168,346
    Savings     61,252     61,455     63,368     65,723     69,461
    Money market(1)     206,067     285,655     253,873     241,976     154,044
    Certificates     295,822     304,630     311,784     321,340     307,962
    Total deposits   $ 837,799   $ 930,197   $ 906,769   $ 916,883   $ 826,539

    (1)   Includes $5.0 million of brokered deposits at December 31, 2023. 

    CREDIT QUALITY DATA
    (Dollars in thousands, unaudited)
        At or For the Quarter Ended
        December 31,
    2024
      September 30,
    2024
      June 30,
    2024
      March 31,
    2024
      December 31,
    2023
    Total nonperforming loans   $ 7,491     $ 8,489     $ 8,909     $ 9,053     $ 3,556  
    OREO and other repossessed assets           115       115       690       575  
    Total nonperforming assets   $ 7,491     $ 8,604     $ 9,024     $ 9,743     $ 4,131  
    Net charge-offs during the quarter   $ (13 )   $ (14 )   $ (17 )   $ (56 )   $ (15 )
    Provision for (release of) credit losses during the quarter     14       8       (109 )     (33 )     (27 )
    Allowance for credit losses – loans     8,499       8,585       8,493       8,598       8,760  
    Allowance for credit losses – loans to total loans     0.94 %     0.95 %     0.96 %     0.96 %     0.98 %
    Allowance for credit losses – loans to total nonperforming loans     113.46 %     101.13 %     95.33 %     94.97 %     246.34 %
    Nonperforming loans to total loans     0.83 %     0.94 %     1.00 %     1.01 %     0.40 %
    Nonperforming assets to total assets     0.75 %     0.78 %     0.84 %     0.90 %     0.42 %
    OTHER STATISTICS
    (Dollars in thousands, unaudited)
        At or For the Quarter Ended
        December 31,
    2024
      September 30,
    2024
      June 30,
    2024
      March 31,
    2024
      December 31,
    2023
                         
    Total loans to total deposits     107.64 %     97.13 %     98.27 %     98.11 %     108.42 %
    Noninterest-bearing deposits to total deposits     15.82 %     13.95 %     13.78 %     14.03 %     15.33 %
                         
    Average total assets for the quarter   $ 1,089,067     $ 1,095,404     $ 1,070,579     $ 1,062,036     $ 1,033,985  
    Average total equity for the quarter   $ 103,181     $ 102,059     $ 100,961     $ 101,292     $ 100,612  

    Contact

    Financial:    
    Wes Ochs      
    Executive Vice President/CFO    
    (206) 436-8587      
           
    Media:    
    Laurie Stewart      
    President/CEO    
    (206) 436-1495      
           

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: US now New Zealand’s second largest export partner – Stats NZ media and information release – Overseas merchandise trade: December 2024

    Source: Statistics New Zealand

    US now New Zealand’s second largest export partner30 January 2025 – The United States (US) was the second largest export destination for New Zealand goods in 2024, with a total value of $9.0 billion, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. The US overtook Australia but remains behind China.

    “Although the US is our second largest export partner, New Zealand ranks outside the top 50 countries from which the US purchases goods,” international accounts spokesperson Viki Ward said.

    New Zealand exports to the US surpassed $9.0 billion for the first time in 2024, with the US receiving 12 percent of our total exports by value ($71.0 billion). By comparison, in the year ended December 2014, the US received 9.4 percent ($4.7 billion) of New Zealand’s total goods export value ($50.1 billion).

    Files:

    MIL OSI

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: US now New Zealand’s second largest export partner – Stats NZ media and information release – Overseas merchandise trade: December 2024

    Source: Statistics New Zealand

    US now New Zealand’s second largest export partner 30 January 2025 – The United States (US) was the second largest export destination for New Zealand goods in 2024, with a total value of $9.0 billion, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. The US overtook Australia but remains behind China.

    “Although the US is our second largest export partner, New Zealand ranks outside the top 50 countries from which the US purchases goods,” international accounts spokesperson Viki Ward said.

    New Zealand exports to the US surpassed $9.0 billion for the first time in 2024, with the US receiving 12 percent of our total exports by value ($71.0 billion). By comparison, in the year ended December 2014, the US received 9.4 percent ($4.7 billion) of New Zealand’s total goods export value ($50.1 billion).

    Files:

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI: National Fuel Reports First Quarter Earnings

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    WILLIAMSVILLE, N.Y., Jan. 29, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — National Fuel Gas Company (“National Fuel” or the “Company”) (NYSE:NFG) today announced consolidated results for the first quarter of its 2025 fiscal year.

    FISCAL 2025 FIRST QUARTER SUMMARY

    • GAAP net income of $45.0 million (or $0.49 per share), which includes $104.6 million in non-cash, after-tax impairment charges in the Exploration & Production segment, compared to GAAP net income of $133.0 million (or $1.44 per share) in the prior year.
    • Adjusted operating results of $151.9 million (or $1.66 per share), an increase of 14%, or $16.7 million ($0.20 per share), compared to the prior year. See non-GAAP reconciliation on page 2.
    • Pipeline & Storage segment net income increased $8.4 million, or 35%, compared to the prior year, primarily due to the settlement of the Supply Corporation rate case, which led to increased rates effective February 1, 2024.
    • Utility segment net income increased $5.9 million, or 22%, compared to the prior year driven by a three-year settlement of a rate proceeding in the Company’s New York jurisdiction, which led to increased rates starting October 1, 2024.
    • E&P segment adjusted operating results increased $2.6 million, or 5%, compared to the prior year, supported by hedging-related gains, which more than offset the $0.08 per MMBtu decrease in the weighted average natural gas price compared to the prior year.
    • The Company repurchased $34 million of common stock during the quarter, which brings the total amount repurchased to $99 million, or 1.7 million shares, under the $200 million share buyback program, authorized in March 2024.
    • The Company is increasing its guidance for fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share to a range of $6.50 to $7.00 as a result of higher forecasted natural gas prices and ongoing improvements in the outlook for each segment.

    MANAGEMENT COMMENTS

    David P. Bauer, President and CEO of National Fuel Gas Company, stated: “Fiscal 2025 is off to a great start for National Fuel, with each business contributing to our strong consolidated adjusted operating results.

    “In our regulated segments, we are delivering on our long-term growth outlook, with adjusted earnings per share in the quarter increasing approximately 30% compared to the prior year. The recent approval of our rate case settlement in our New York utility jurisdiction, which extends through 2027, combined with the ongoing benefits from ratemaking activity in our Pennsylvania utility territory and at Supply Corporation, gives us further confidence in our 7% to 10% earnings growth projections over the next three years. Furthermore, our integrated upstream and gathering operations in the Eastern Development Area (“EDA”) continue to exceed expectations, with the combination of strong operational execution and our highly-prolific assets. This differentiated ability to drive capital efficiency improvements alongside a rising price outlook for natural gas positions these businesses to deliver strong results in the coming years. We expect that these tailwinds will contribute to rising free cash flow across the system and deliver significant value to National Fuel shareholders.”

    RECONCILIATION OF GAAP EARNINGS TO ADJUSTED OPERATING RESULTS

           
      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
    (in thousands except per share amounts) 2024   2023
    Reported GAAP Earnings $ 44,986     $ 133,020  
    Items impacting comparability:      
    Impairment of assets (E&P)   141,802        
    Tax impact of impairment of assets   (37,169 )      
    Unrealized (gain) loss on derivative asset (E&P)   349       4,198  
    Tax impact of unrealized (gain) loss on derivative asset   (94 )     (1,151 )
    Unrealized (gain) loss on other investments (Corporate / All Other)   2,617       (1,049 )
    Tax impact of unrealized (gain) loss on other investments   (550 )     220  
    Adjusted Operating Results $ 151,941     $ 135,238  
           
    Reported GAAP Earnings Per Share $ 0.49     $ 1.44  
    Items impacting comparability:      
    Impairment of assets, net of tax (E&P)   1.14        
    Unrealized (gain) loss on derivative asset, net of tax (E&P)         0.03  
    Unrealized (gain) loss on other investments, net of tax (Corporate / All Other)   0.02       (0.01 )
    Rounding   0.01        
    Adjusted Operating Results Per Share $ 1.66     $ 1.46  
                   

    FISCAL 2025 GUIDANCE UPDATE

    National Fuel is increasing its guidance for fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share, which are now expected to be within a range of $6.50 to $7.00. This updated range incorporates better than expected results in the first quarter along with the anticipated impact of higher natural gas prices and higher production in the Exploration and Production segment for the remainder of the fiscal year. The Company is now assuming NYMEX natural gas prices will average $3.50 per MMBtu for the remaining nine months of fiscal 2025, an increase of $0.70 from the $2.80 per MMBtu assumed in previous guidance. This updated natural gas price projection approximates the current NYMEX forward curve at this time, however; given the continued volatility in NYMEX natural gas prices, the Company is providing the following sensitivities to its adjusted operating results guidance range:

    NYMEX Assumption 
    Remaining 9 months 
    ($/MMBtu)
    Fiscal 2025 
    Adjusted Earnings 
    Per Share Sensitivities
    $3.00 $6.15 – $6.65
    $3.50 $6.50 – $7.00
    $4.00 $6.90 – $7.40

    The Company’s production guidance for fiscal 2025 is now expected to be in the range of 410 to 425 Bcfe, an increase of 7.5 Bcfe, or 2%, at the midpoint compared to previous guidance. The revised production guidance is principally a result of ongoing improvements in Seneca’s well results and additional operational efficiencies in the highly prolific EDA. This is also expected to result in increased Gathering segment revenue, relative to the Company’s prior projections, and as a result the Company has increased the midpoint of its guidance range by $5 million. While the Company’s guidance does not incorporate any future price-related curtailments, with 87% of its projected fiscal 2025 production linked to firm sales contracts, Seneca has limited exposure to in-basin markets. Further, 71% of expected production for the balance of the fiscal year is either matched by a financial hedge, including a combination of swaps and no-cost collars, or was entered into at a fixed price, both of which provide price certainty for that production.

    Additionally, as a result of operational improvements, the Company is revising Seneca’s capital expenditure guidance range downward to $495 million to $515 million, or $505 million at the midpoint, which is a $5 million decrease from the midpoint of the Company’s previous guidance.

    The Company’s other fiscal 2025 guidance assumptions remain largely unchanged and are detailed in the table on page 7.

    DISCUSSION OF FIRST QUARTER RESULTS BY SEGMENT

    The following earnings discussion of each operating segment for the quarter ended December 31, 2024 is summarized in a tabular form on pages 8 and 9 of this report. It may be helpful to refer to those tables while reviewing this discussion.

    Note that management defines adjusted operating results as reported GAAP earnings adjusted for items impacting comparability, and adjusted EBITDA as reported GAAP earnings before the following items: interest expense, income taxes, depreciation, depletion and amortization, other income and deductions, impairments, and other items reflected in operating income that impact comparability.

    Upstream Business

    Exploration and Production Segment

    The Exploration and Production segment operations are carried out by Seneca Resources Company, LLC (“Seneca”). Seneca explores for, develops and produces primarily natural gas reserves in Pennsylvania.

      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
    (in thousands) 2024   2023   Variance
    GAAP Earnings $ (46,777 )   $ 52,483   $ (99,260 )
    Impairment of assets, net of tax   104,633           104,633  
    Unrealized (gain) loss on derivative asset, net of tax   255       3,047     (2,792 )
    Adjusted Operating Results $ 58,111     $ 55,530   $ 2,581  
               
    Adjusted EBITDA $ 156,645     $ 159,970   $ (3,325 )
                         

    Seneca’s first quarter GAAP earnings decreased $99.3 million versus the prior year. This was driven by non-cash, pre-tax impairment charges of $141.8 million ($104.6 million after-tax), the majority of which is related to a “ceiling test” impairment which required Seneca to write-down the book value of its reserves under the full cost method of accounting. For purposes of the ceiling test, the 12-month average of first day of the month pricing for NYMEX natural gas for the period ended December 31, 2024 was $2.13 per MMBtu.

    Excluding impairments, as well as the net impact of unrealized losses related to reductions in the fair value of contingent consideration received in connection with the June 2022 divestiture of Seneca’s California assets (see table above), Seneca’s adjusted operating results increased $2.6 million primarily due to higher realized natural gas prices after the impact of hedging and lower per unit operating expenses, partially offset by lower natural gas production.

    During the first quarter, Seneca produced 97.7 Bcf of natural gas, a decrease of 3.0 Bcf, or 3%, from the prior year. Compared to the preceding fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, production in the first quarter is higher by 5.8 Bcf, or 6%. Early in the quarter, Seneca curtailed approximately 1 Bcf of production due to low in-basin pricing. Production in the quarter was lower than the prior year largely due to the timing of turn in line dates for new wells between fiscal years.

    Seneca’s average realized natural gas price, after the impact of hedging and transportation costs, was $2.53 per Mcf, an increase of $0.02 per Mcf from the prior year. Seneca recorded hedging gains of $29.7 million, or an uplift of $0.30 per Mcf, during the quarter, which more than offset a $0.08 per Mcf decrease in pre-hedge natural gas price realizations versus the prior year.

    On a per unit basis, first quarter Lease Operating Expense (“LOE”) was $0.67 per Mcf, consistent with the prior year. LOE included $55.0 million ($0.56 per Mcf) for gathering and compression services from the Company’s Gathering segment to connect Seneca’s production to sales points along interstate pipelines. General and Administrative Expense (“G&A”) was $0.20 per Mcf, an increase of $0.02 per Mcf compared to the prior year driven by the combination of higher personnel costs and modestly lower production. Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization Expense (“DD&A”) was $0.65 per Mcf, a decrease of $0.06 per Mcf from the prior year largely due to ceiling test impairments recorded in the third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2024 that lowered Seneca’s full cost pool depletable base.

    Midstream Businesses

    Pipeline and Storage Segment

    The Pipeline and Storage segment’s operations are carried out by National Fuel Gas Supply Corporation (“Supply Corporation”) and Empire Pipeline, Inc. (“Empire”). The Pipeline and Storage segment provides natural gas transportation and storage services to affiliated and non-affiliated companies through an integrated system of pipelines and underground natural gas storage fields in western New York and Pennsylvania.

      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
    (in thousands) 2024   2023   Variance
    GAAP Earnings $ 32,454   $ 24,055   $ 8,399
               
    Adjusted EBITDA $ 70,953   $ 59,142   $ 11,811
                     

    The Pipeline and Storage segment’s first quarter GAAP earnings increased $8.4 million versus the prior year primarily due to higher operating revenues, partly offset by higher operation and maintenance (“O&M”) expense.

    The increase in operating revenues of $12.2 million, or 13%, was primarily attributable to an increase in Supply Corporation’s transportation and storage rates effective February 1, 2024, in accordance with its rate settlement, which was approved in fiscal 2024. O&M expense increased $1.1 million primarily due to higher pipeline integrity and labor-related costs.

    Gathering Segment

    The Gathering segment’s operations are carried out by National Fuel Gas Midstream Company, LLC’s limited liability companies. The Gathering segment constructs, owns and operates natural gas gathering pipelines and compression facilities in the Appalachian region, which delivers Seneca and other non-affiliated Appalachian production to the interstate pipeline system.

      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
    (in thousands) 2024   2023   Variance
    GAAP Earnings $ 27,145   $ 28,825   $ (1,680 )
               
    Adjusted EBITDA $ 51,936   $ 53,061   $ (1,125 )
                       

    The Gathering segment’s first quarter GAAP earnings decreased $1.7 million versus the prior year due to lower operating revenues and higher DD&A expense.

    Operating revenues decreased $1.5 million, or 2%, primarily due to a decrease in throughput from Seneca. DD&A expense increased $1.1 million primarily due to higher average depreciable plant in service compared to the prior year.

    Downstream Business

    Utility Segment

    The Utility segment operations are carried out by National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation (“Distribution Corporation”), which sells or transports natural gas to customers located in western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania.

      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
    (in thousands) 2024   2023   Variance
    GAAP Earnings $ 32,499   $ 26,551   $ 5,948
               
    Adjusted EBITDA $ 60,665   $ 53,366   $ 7,299
                     

    The Utility segment’s first quarter GAAP earnings increased $5.9 million, or 22%, primarily as a result of the implementation of the recent rate case order in the Utility’s New York jurisdiction.

    For the quarter, customer margin (operating revenues less purchased gas sold) increased $9.1 million, primarily due to the aforementioned rate case in Distribution Corporation’s New York jurisdiction, for which a settlement became effective October 1, 2024. Other income, which was also impacted by the rate settlement, increased $4.0 million. This was in large part due to the recognition of non-service pension and post-retirement benefit income that is offset with a corresponding reduction in new base rates and as a result, has no effect on net income.

    O&M expense increased by $1.6 million, primarily driven by higher personnel costs, partially offset by a reduction related to amortizations of certain regulatory assets as a result of the New York rate settlement. DD&A expense increased $0.8 million primarily due to higher average depreciable plant in service compared to the prior year. Interest expense increased $2.3 million primarily due to a higher average amount of net borrowings.

    Corporate and All Other

    The Company’s operations that are included in Corporate and All Other generated a combined net loss of $0.3 million in the current-year first quarter, which was $1.4 million lower than combined earnings of $1.1 million in the prior-year first quarter. The reduction in earnings during the quarter was primarily driven by unrealized losses recorded on investment securities that fund non-qualified retirement benefit plans.

    EARNINGS TELECONFERENCE

    A conference call to discuss the results will be held on Thursday, January 30, 2025, at 9 a.m. ET. All participants must pre-register to join this conference using the Participant Registration link. A webcast link to the conference call will be provided under the Events Calendar on the NFG Investor Relations website at investor.nationalfuelgas.com. A replay will be available following the call through the end of the day, Thursday, February 6, 2025. To access the replay, dial 1-866-813-9403 and provide Access Code 245940.

    National Fuel is an integrated energy company reporting financial results for four operating segments: Exploration and Production, Pipeline and Storage, Gathering, and Utility. Additional information about National Fuel is available at www.nationalfuel.com.

    Certain statements contained herein, including statements identified by the use of the words “anticipates,” “estimates,” “expects,” “forecasts,” “intends,” “plans,” “predicts,” “projects,” “believes,” “seeks,” “will,” “may” and similar expressions, and statements which are other than statements of historical facts, are “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. The Company’s expectations, beliefs and projections contained herein are expressed in good faith and are believed to have a reasonable basis, but there can be no assurance that such expectations, beliefs or projections will result or be achieved or accomplished. In addition to other factors, the following are important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward-looking statements: impairments under the SEC’s full cost ceiling test for natural gas reserves; changes in the price of natural gas; changes in laws, regulations or judicial interpretations to which the Company is subject, including those involving derivatives, taxes, safety, employment, climate change, other environmental matters, real property, and exploration and production activities such as hydraulic fracturing; governmental/regulatory actions, initiatives and proceedings, including those involving rate cases (which address, among other things, target rates of return, rate design, retained natural gas and system modernization), environmental/safety requirements, affiliate relationships, industry structure, and franchise renewal; the Company’s ability to estimate accurately the time and resources necessary to meet emissions targets; governmental/regulatory actions and/or market pressures to reduce or eliminate reliance on natural gas; changes in economic conditions, including inflationary pressures, supply chain issues, liquidity challenges, and global, national or regional recessions, and their effect on the demand for, and customers’ ability to pay for, the Company’s products and services; the creditworthiness or performance of the Company’s key suppliers, customers and counterparties; financial and economic conditions, including the availability of credit, and occurrences affecting the Company’s ability to obtain financing on acceptable terms for working capital, capital expenditures and other investments, including any downgrades in the Company’s credit ratings and changes in interest rates and other capital market conditions; changes in price differentials between similar quantities of natural gas sold at different geographic locations, and the effect of such changes on commodity production, revenues and demand for pipeline transportation capacity to or from such locations; the impact of information technology disruptions, cybersecurity or data security breaches; factors affecting the Company’s ability to successfully identify, drill for and produce economically viable natural gas reserves, including among others geology, lease availability and costs, title disputes, weather conditions, water availability and disposal or recycling opportunities of used water, shortages, delays or unavailability of equipment and services required in drilling operations, insufficient gathering, processing and transportation capacity, the need to obtain governmental approvals and permits, and compliance with environmental laws and regulations; the Company’s ability to complete strategic transactions; increased costs or delays or changes in plans with respect to Company projects or related projects of other companies, as well as difficulties or delays in obtaining necessary governmental approvals, permits or orders or in obtaining the cooperation of interconnecting facility operators; increasing health care costs and the resulting effect on health insurance premiums and on the obligation to provide other post-retirement benefits; other changes in price differentials between similar quantities of natural gas having different quality, heating value, hydrocarbon mix or delivery date; the cost and effects of legal and administrative claims against the Company or activist shareholder campaigns to effect changes at the Company; negotiations with the collective bargaining units representing the Company’s workforce, including potential work stoppages during negotiations; uncertainty of natural gas reserve estimates; significant differences between the Company’s projected and actual production levels for natural gas; changes in demographic patterns and weather conditions (including those related to climate change); changes in the availability, price or accounting treatment of derivative financial instruments; changes in laws, actuarial assumptions, the interest rate environment and the return on plan/trust assets related to the Company’s pension and other post-retirement benefits, which can affect future funding obligations and costs and plan liabilities; economic disruptions or uninsured losses resulting from major accidents, fires, severe weather, natural disasters, terrorist activities or acts of war, as well as economic and operational disruptions due to third-party outages; significant differences between the Company’s projected and actual capital expenditures and operating expenses; or increasing costs of insurance, changes in coverage and the ability to obtain insurance. The Company disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date thereof.

    NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
    AND SUBSIDIARIES 

    GUIDANCE SUMMARY

    As discussed on page 2, the Company is revising its adjusted earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2025. Additional details on the Company’s forecast assumptions and business segment guidance are outlined in the table below.

    The revised adjusted earnings per share guidance range excludes certain items that impacted the comparability of adjusted operating results during the three months ended December 31, 2024, including: (1) the after tax impairment of assets, which reduced earnings by $1.14 per share; (2) after-tax unrealized losses on a derivative asset, which reduced earnings by less than $0.01 per share; and (3) after-tax unrealized losses on other investments, which reduced earnings by $0.02 per share. While the Company expects to record certain adjustments to unrealized gain or loss on a derivative asset and unrealized gain or loss on investments during the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the amounts of these and other potential adjustments and charges, including ceiling test impairments, are not reasonably determinable at this time. As such, the Company is unable to provide earnings guidance other than on a non-GAAP basis.

      Previous FY 2025 Guidance   Updated FY 2025 Guidance
           
    Consolidated Adjusted Earnings per Share $5.50 to $6.00   $6.50 to $7.00
    Consolidated Effective Tax Rate ~ 24.5 – 25%   ~ 25%
           
    Capital Expenditures(Millions)      
    Exploration and Production $495 – $525   $495 – $515
    Pipeline and Storage $130 – $150   $130 – $150
    Gathering $95 – $110   $95 – $110
    Utility $165 – $185   $165 – $185
    Consolidated Capital Expenditures $885 – $970   $885 – $960
           
    Exploration and Production Segment Guidance      
           
    Commodity Price Assumptions*      
    NYMEX natural gas price $2.80 /MMBtu   $3.50 /MMBtu
    Appalachian basin spot price $2.00 /MMBtu   $2.90 /MMBtu
           
    Realized natural gas prices, after hedging ($/Mcf) $2.47 – $2.51   $2.77 – $2.81
           
    Production (Bcf) 400 to 420   410 to 425
           
    E&P Operating Costs($/Mcf)      
    LOE $0.68 – $0.70   $0.68 – $0.70
    G&A $0.18 – $0.19   $0.18 – $0.19
    DD&A $0.65 – $0.69   $0.63 – $0.67
           
    Other Business Segment Guidance(Millions)      
    Gathering Segment Revenues $245 – $255   $250 – $260
    Pipeline and Storage Segment Revenues $415 – $435   $415 – $435
           

    * Commodity price assumptions are for the remaining nine months of the fiscal year.

    NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
    RECONCILIATION OF CURRENT AND PRIOR YEAR GAAP EARNINGS
    QUARTER ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2024
    (Unaudited)
                           
      Upstream   Midstream   Downstream        
                           
      Exploration &   Pipeline &           Corporate /    
    (Thousands of Dollars) Production   Storage   Gathering   Utility   All Other   Consolidated*
                           
    First quarter 2024 GAAP earnings $ 52,483     $ 24,055     $ 28,825     $ 26,551     $ 1,106     $ 133,020  
    Items impacting comparability:                      
    Unrealized (gain) loss on derivative asset   4,198                       4,198  
    Tax impact of unrealized (gain) loss on derivative asset   (1,151 )                     (1,151 )
    Unrealized (gain) loss on other investments                   (1,049 )     (1,049 )
    Tax impact of unrealized (gain) loss on other investments                   220       220  
    First quarter 2024 adjusted operating results   55,530       24,055       28,825       26,551       277       135,238  
    Drivers of adjusted operating results**                      
    Upstream Revenues                      
    Higher (lower) natural gas production   (6,016 )                     (6,016 )
    Higher (lower) realized natural gas prices, after hedging   1,885                       1,885  
    Midstream Revenues                      
    Higher (lower) operating revenues       9,637       (1,151 )             8,486  
    Downstream Margins***                      
    Impact of usage and weather               (325 )         (325 )
    Impact of new rates in New York               7,865           7,865  
    Operating Expenses                      
    Lower (higher) lease operating and transportation expenses   1,133                       1,133  
    Lower (higher) operating expenses       (856 )         (1,244 )         (2,100 )
    Lower (higher) depreciation / depletion   6,842           (835 )     (624 )         5,383  
    Other Income (Expense)                      
    Higher (lower) other income   (1,680 )             3,176       1,686       3,182  
    (Higher) lower interest expense               (1,785 )         (1,785 )
    Income Taxes                      
    Lower (higher) income tax expense / effective tax rate   (8 )     (488 )     443       (584 )     205       (432 )
    All other / rounding   425       106       (137 )     (531 )     (436 )     (573 )
    First quarter 2025 adjusted operating results   58,111       32,454       27,145       32,499       1,732       151,941  
    Items impacting comparability:                      
    Impairment of assets   (141,802 )                     (141,802 )
    Tax impact of impairment of assets   37,169                       37,169  
    Unrealized gain (loss) on derivative asset   (349 )                     (349 )
    Tax impact of unrealized gain (loss) on derivative asset   94                       94  
    Unrealized gain (loss) on other investments                   (2,617 )     (2,617 )
    Tax impact of unrealized gain (loss) on other investments                   550       550  
    First quarter 2025 GAAP earnings $ (46,777 )   $ 32,454     $ 27,145     $ 32,499     $ (335 )   $ 44,986  
                           
    * Amounts do not reflect intercompany eliminations.           
    ** Drivers of adjusted operating results have been calculated using the 21% federal statutory rate.
    *** Downstream margin defined as operating revenues less purchased gas expense.
     
    NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
    RECONCILIATION OF CURRENT AND PRIOR YEAR GAAP EARNINGS PER SHARE
    QUARTER ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2024
    (Unaudited)
                           
      Upstream   Midstream   Downstream        
                           
      Exploration &   Pipeline &           Corporate /    
      Production   Storage   Gathering   Utility   All Other   Consolidated*
                           
    First quarter 2024 GAAP earnings per share $ 0.57     $ 0.26     $ 0.31     $ 0.29     $ 0.01     $ 1.44  
    Items impacting comparability:                      
    Unrealized (gain) loss on derivative asset, net of tax   0.03                       0.03  
    Unrealized (gain) loss on other investments, net of tax                   (0.01 )     (0.01 )
    First quarter 2024 adjusted operating results per share   0.60       0.26       0.31       0.29             1.46  
    Drivers of adjusted operating results**                      
    Upstream Revenues                      
    Higher (lower) natural gas production   (0.07 )                     (0.07 )
    Higher (lower) realized natural gas prices, after hedging   0.02                       0.02  
    Midstream Revenues                      
    Higher (lower) operating revenues       0.11       (0.01 )             0.10  
    Downstream Margins***                      
    Impact of usage and weather                          
    Impact of new rates in New York               0.09           0.09  
    Operating Expenses                      
    Lower (higher) lease operating and transportation expenses   0.01                       0.01  
    Lower (higher) operating expenses       (0.01 )         (0.01 )         (0.02 )
    Lower (higher) depreciation / depletion   0.08           (0.01 )     (0.01 )         0.06  
    Other Income (Expense)                      
    Higher (lower) other income   (0.02 )             0.03       0.02       0.03  
    (Higher) lower interest expense               (0.02 )         (0.02 )
    Income Taxes                      
    Lower (higher) income tax expense / effective tax rate         (0.01 )           (0.01 )           (0.02 )
    All other / rounding   0.02             0.01             (0.01 )     0.02  
    First quarter 2025 adjusted operating results per share   0.64       0.35       0.30       0.36       0.01       1.66  
    Items impacting comparability:                      
    Impairment of assets, net of tax   (1.14 )                     (1.14 )
    Unrealized gain (loss) on derivative asset, net of tax                          
    Unrealized gain (loss) on other investments, net of tax                   (0.02 )     (0.02 )
    Rounding   (0.01 )                     (0.01 )
    First quarter 2025 GAAP earnings per share $ (0.51 )   $ 0.35     $ 0.30     $ 0.36     $ (0.01 )   $ 0.49  
                           
    * Amounts do not reflect intercompany eliminations.           
    ** Drivers of adjusted operating results have been calculated using the 21% federal statutory rate.
    *** Downstream margin defined as operating revenues less purchased gas expense.
     
    NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
    AND SUBSIDIARIES
           
    (Thousands of Dollars, except per share amounts)      
      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
      (Unaudited)
    SUMMARY OF OPERATIONS 2024   2023
    Operating Revenues:      
    Utility Revenues $ 228,424     $ 201,920  
    Exploration and Production and Other Revenues   248,860       254,019  
    Pipeline and Storage and Gathering Revenues   72,198       69,422  
        549,482       525,361  
    Operating Expenses:      
    Purchased Gas   65,337       56,552  
    Operation and Maintenance:      
    Utility   55,244       53,705  
    Exploration and Production and Other   33,541       34,826  
    Pipeline and Storage and Gathering   35,941       34,962  
    Property, Franchise and Other Taxes   22,056       22,416  
    Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization   109,370       115,790  
    Impairment of Assets   141,802        
        463,291       318,251  
           
    Operating Income   86,191       207,110  
           
    Other Income (Expense):      
    Other Income (Deductions)   7,720       3,732  
    Interest Expense on Long-Term Debt   (33,362 )     (28,462 )
    Other Interest Expense   (4,381 )     (6,273 )
           
    Income Before Income Taxes   56,168       176,107  
           
    Income Tax Expense   11,182       43,087  
           
    Net Income Available for Common Stock $ 44,986     $ 133,020  
           
    Earnings Per Common Share      
    Basic $ 0.50     $ 1.45  
    Diluted $ 0.49     $ 1.44  
           
    Weighted Average Common Shares:      
    Used in Basic Calculation   90,777,446       91,910,244  
    Used in Diluted Calculation   91,434,741       92,442,145  
                   
    NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
    AND SUBSIDIARIES
    CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
    (Unaudited)
       
      December 31,   September 30,
    (Thousands of Dollars) 2024   2024
    ASSETS      
    Property, Plant and Equipment $ 14,675,281     $ 14,524,798  
    Less – Accumulated Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization   7,393,477       7,185,593  
    Net Property, Plant and Equipment   7,281,804       7,339,205  
    Current Assets:      
    Cash and Temporary Cash Investments   48,694       38,222  
    Receivables – Net   202,821       127,222  
    Unbilled Revenue   57,117       15,521  
    Gas Stored Underground   24,725       35,055  
    Materials and Supplies – at average cost   47,820       47,670  
    Other Current Assets   83,435       92,229  
    Total Current Assets   464,612       355,919  
    Other Assets:      
    Recoverable Future Taxes   83,740       80,084  
    Unamortized Debt Expense   5,206       5,604  
    Other Regulatory Assets   106,386       108,022  
    Deferred Charges   68,952       69,662  
    Other Investments   71,493       81,705  
    Goodwill   5,476       5,476  
    Prepaid Pension and Post-Retirement Benefit Costs   185,224       180,230  
    Fair Value of Derivative Financial Instruments   20,695       87,905  
    Other   7,860       5,958  
    Total Other Assets   555,032       624,646  
    Total Assets $ 8,301,448     $ 8,319,770  
    CAPITALIZATION AND LIABILITIES      
    Capitalization:      
    Comprehensive Shareholders’ Equity      
    Common Stock, $1 Par Value Authorized – 200,000,000 Shares; Issued and      
    Outstanding – 90,612,955 Shares and 91,005,993 Shares, Respectively $ 90,613     $ 91,006  
    Paid in Capital   1,039,705       1,045,487  
    Earnings Reinvested in the Business   1,698,648       1,727,326  
    Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss   (76,153 )     (15,476 )
    Total Comprehensive Shareholders’ Equity   2,752,813       2,848,343  
    Long-Term Debt, Net of Current Portion and Unamortized Discount and Debt Issuance Costs   2,189,421       2,188,243  
    Total Capitalization   4,942,234       5,036,586  
    Current and Accrued Liabilities:      
    Notes Payable to Banks and Commercial Paper   200,000       90,700  
    Current Portion of Long-Term Debt   500,000       500,000  
    Accounts Payable   120,991       165,068  
    Amounts Payable to Customers   42,587       42,720  
    Dividends Payable   46,671       46,872  
    Interest Payable on Long-Term Debt   44,376       27,247  
    Customer Advances   15,295       19,373  
    Customer Security Deposits   36,091       36,265  
    Other Accruals and Current Liabilities   172,409       162,903  
    Fair Value of Derivative Financial Instruments   20,893       4,744  
    Total Current and Accrued Liabilities   1,199,313       1,095,892  
    Other Liabilities:      
    Deferred Income Taxes   1,089,394       1,111,165  
    Taxes Refundable to Customers   303,344       305,645  
    Cost of Removal Regulatory Liability   296,660       292,477  
    Other Regulatory Liabilities   147,561       151,452  
    Other Post-Retirement Liabilities   3,476       3,511  
    Asset Retirement Obligations   199,310       203,006  
    Other Liabilities   120,156       120,036  
    Total Other Liabilities   2,159,901       2,187,292  
    Commitments and Contingencies          
    Total Capitalization and Liabilities $ 8,301,448     $ 8,319,770  
    NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
    AND SUBSIDIARIES
    CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
    (Unaudited)
      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
    (Thousands of Dollars) 2024   2023
           
    Operating Activities:      
    Net Income Available for Common Stock $ 44,986     $ 133,020  
    Adjustments to Reconcile Net Income to Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:      
    Impairment of Assets   141,802        
    Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization   109,370       115,790  
    Deferred Income Taxes   (5,385 )     38,362  
    Stock-Based Compensation   4,705       4,660  
    Other   7,146       8,041  
    Change in:      
    Receivables and Unbilled Revenue   (115,165 )     (58,459 )
    Gas Stored Underground and Materials and Supplies   10,180       6,915  
    Other Current Assets   8,814       892  
    Accounts Payable   9,703       (3,355 )
    Amounts Payable to Customers   (133 )     1,013  
    Customer Advances   (4,078 )     2,083  
    Customer Security Deposits   (174 )     2,079  
    Other Accruals and Current Liabilities   21,266       28,612  
    Other Assets   (3,892 )     (6,306 )
    Other Liabilities   (9,057 )     (2,403 )
    Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities $ 220,088     $ 270,944  
           
    Investing Activities:      
    Capital Expenditures $ (240,427 )   $ (246,938 )
    Other   5,878       (920 )
    Net Cash Used in Investing Activities $ (234,549 )   $ (247,858 )
           
    Financing Activities:      
    Changes in Notes Payable to Banks and Commercial Paper   109,300       12,500  
    Shares Repurchased Under Repurchase Plan   (33,524 )      
    Dividends Paid on Common Stock   (46,872 )     (45,451 )
    Net Repurchases of Common Stock Under Stock and Benefit Plans   (3,971 )     (3,897 )
    Net Cash Provided by (Used in) Financing Activities $ 24,933     $ (36,848 )
           
    Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents   10,472       (13,762 )
    Cash and Cash Equivalents at Beginning of Period   38,222       55,447  
    Cash and Cash Equivalents at December 31 $ 48,694     $ 41,685  
    NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
    AND SUBSIDIARIES
               
    SEGMENT OPERATING RESULTS AND STATISTICS
    (UNAUDITED)
               
    UPSTREAM BUSINESS
               
               
      Three Months Ended
    (Thousands of Dollars, except per share amounts) December 31,
    EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION SEGMENT 2024   2023   Variance
    Total Operating Revenues $ 248,860     $ 254,019     $ (5,159 )
    Operating Expenses:          
    Operation and Maintenance:          
    General and Administrative Expense   19,326       17,793       1,533  
    Lease Operating and Transportation Expense   65,640       67,074       (1,434 )
    All Other Operation and Maintenance Expense   3,867       5,544       (1,677 )
    Property, Franchise and Other Taxes   3,382       3,638       (256 )
    Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization   63,304       71,965       (8,661 )
    Impairment of Assets   141,802             141,802  
        297,321       166,014       131,307  
               
    Operating Income (Loss)   (48,461 )     88,005       (136,466 )
               
    Other Income (Expense):          
    Non-Service Pension and Post-Retirement Benefit Credit   37       100       (63 )
    Interest and Other Income (Deductions)   272       (1,513 )     1,785  
    Interest Expense   (15,200 )     (15,268 )     68  
    Income (Loss) Before Income Taxes   (63,352 )     71,324       (134,676 )
    Income Tax Expense (Benefit)   (16,575 )     18,841       (35,416 )
    Net Income (Loss) $ (46,777 )   $ 52,483     $ (99,260 )
    Net Income (Loss) Per Share (Diluted) $ (0.51 )   $ 0.57     $ (1.08 )
               
    NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
    AND SUBSIDIARIES
               
    SEGMENT OPERATING RESULTS AND STATISTICS
    (UNAUDITED)
               
    MIDSTREAM BUSINESSES
               
      Three Months Ended
    (Thousands of Dollars, except per share amounts) December 31,
    PIPELINE AND STORAGE SEGMENT 2024   2023   Variance
    Revenues from External Customers $ 68,750     $ 64,826     $ 3,924  
    Intersegment Revenues   37,862       29,587       8,275  
    Total Operating Revenues   106,612       94,413       12,199  
    Operating Expenses:          
    Purchased Gas   (42 )     601       (643 )
    Operation and Maintenance   27,034       25,950       1,084  
    Property, Franchise and Other Taxes   8,667       8,720       (53 )
    Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization   18,585       18,213       372  
        54,244       53,484       760  
               
    Operating Income   52,368       40,929       11,439  
               
    Other Income (Expense):          
    Non-Service Pension and Post-Retirement Benefit Credit   952       1,257       (305 )
    Interest and Other Income   2,040       1,931       109  
    Interest Expense   (11,729 )     (11,725 )     (4 )
    Income Before Income Taxes   43,631       32,392       11,239  
    Income Tax Expense   11,177       8,337       2,840  
    Net Income $ 32,454     $ 24,055     $ 8,399  
    Net Income Per Share (Diluted) $ 0.35     $ 0.26     $ 0.09  
               
               
      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
    GATHERING SEGMENT 2024   2023   Variance
    Revenues from External Customers $ 3,448     $ 4,596     $ (1,148 )
    Intersegment Revenues   57,683       57,992       (309 )
    Total Operating Revenues   61,131       62,588       (1,457 )
    Operating Expenses:          
    Operation and Maintenance   9,429       9,504       (75 )
    Property, Franchise and Other Taxes   (234 )     23       (257 )
    Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization   10,515       9,458       1,057  
        19,710       18,985       725  
               
    Operating Income   41,421       43,603       (2,182 )
               
    Other Income (Expense):          
    Non-Service Pension and Post-Retirement Benefit Credit         9       (9 )
    Interest and Other Income   58       73       (15 )
    Interest Expense   (4,210 )     (3,729 )     (481 )
    Income Before Income Taxes   37,269       39,956       (2,687 )
    Income Tax Expense   10,124       11,131       (1,007 )
    Net Income $ 27,145     $ 28,825     $ (1,680 )
    Net Income Per Share (Diluted) $ 0.30     $ 0.31     $ (0.01 )
               
    NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
    AND SUBSIDIARIES
               
    SEGMENT OPERATING RESULTS AND STATISTICS
    (UNAUDITED)
               
    DOWNSTREAM BUSINESS
               
               
      Three Months Ended
    (Thousands of Dollars, except per share amounts) December 31,
    UTILITY SEGMENT 2024   2023   Variance
    Revenues from External Customers $ 228,424     $ 201,920     $ 26,504  
    Intersegment Revenues   85       87       (2 )
    Total Operating Revenues   228,509       202,007       26,502  
    Operating Expenses:          
    Purchased Gas   101,473       84,051       17,422  
    Operation and Maintenance   56,260       54,684       1,576  
    Property, Franchise and Other Taxes   10,111       9,906       205  
    Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization   16,827       16,037       790  
        184,671       164,678       19,993  
               
    Operating Income   43,838       37,329       6,509  
               
    Other Income (Expense):          
    Non-Service Pension and Post-Retirement Benefit Credit   5,871       470       5,401  
    Interest and Other Income   528       1,911       (1,383 )
    Interest Expense   (10,716 )     (8,457 )     (2,259 )
    Income Before Income Taxes   39,521       31,253       8,268  
    Income Tax Expense   7,022       4,702       2,320  
    Net Income $ 32,499     $ 26,551     $ 5,948  
    Net Income Per Share (Diluted) $ 0.36     $ 0.29     $ 0.07  
               
    NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
    AND SUBSIDIARIES
               
    SEGMENT OPERATING RESULTS AND STATISTICS
    (UNAUDITED)
               
      Three Months Ended
    (Thousands of Dollars, except per share amounts) December 31,
    ALL OTHER 2024   2023   Variance
    Total Operating Revenues $     $     $  
    Operating Expenses:          
    Operation and Maintenance                
                     
               
    Operating Income                
    Other Income (Expense):          
    Interest and Other Income (Deductions)   (136 )     (77 )     (59 )
    Interest Expense   (116 )     (81 )     (35 )
    Loss before Income Taxes   (252 )     (158 )     (94 )
    Income Tax Benefit   (59 )     (37 )     (22 )
    Net Loss $ (193 )   $ (121 )   $ (72 )
    Net Loss Per Share (Diluted) $     $     $  
       
      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
    CORPORATE 2024   2023   Variance
    Revenues from External Customers $     $     $  
    Intersegment Revenues   1,341       1,285       56  
    Total Operating Revenues   1,341       1,285       56  
    Operating Expenses:          
    Operation and Maintenance   4,047       3,795       252  
    Property, Franchise and Other Taxes   130       129       1  
    Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization   139       117       22  
        4,316       4,041       275  
               
    Operating Loss   (2,975 )     (2,756 )     (219 )
    Other Income (Expense):          
    Non-Service Pension and Post-Retirement Benefit Costs   (212 )     (387 )     175  
    Interest and Other Income   41,061       41,030       31  
    Interest Expense on Long-Term Debt   (33,362 )     (28,462 )     (4,900 )
    Other Interest Expense   (5,161 )     (8,085 )     2,924  
    Income (Loss) before Income Taxes   (649 )     1,340       (1,989 )
    Income Tax Expense (Benefit)   (507 )     113       (620 )
    Net Income (Loss) $ (142 )   $ 1,227     $ (1,369 )
    Net Income (Loss) Per Share (Diluted) $ (0.01 )   $ 0.01     $ (0.02 )
               
               
      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
    INTERSEGMENT ELIMINATIONS 2024   2023   Variance
    Intersegment Revenues $ (96,971 )   $ (88,951 )   $ (8,020 )
    Operating Expenses:          
    Purchased Gas   (36,094 )     (28,100 )     (7,994 )
    Operation and Maintenance   (60,877 )     (60,851 )     (26 )
        (96,971 )     (88,951 )     (8,020 )
    Operating Income                
    Other Income (Expense):          
    Interest and Other Deductions   (42,751 )     (41,072 )     (1,679 )
    Interest Expense   42,751       41,072       1,679  
    Net Income $     $     $  
    Net Income Per Share (Diluted) $     $     $  
                           
    NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
    AND SUBSIDIARIES
               
    SEGMENT INFORMATION (Continued)
    (Thousands of Dollars)
               
      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
      (Unaudited)
              Increase
      2024   2023   (Decrease)
               
    Capital Expenditures:          
    Exploration and Production $ 122,602 (1)(2) $ 160,957 (3)(4) $ (38,355 )
    Pipeline and Storage   19,792 (1)(2)   24,554 (3)(4)   (4,762 )
    Gathering   13,027 (1)(2)   19,569 (3)(4)   (6,542 )
    Utility   36,430 (1)(2)   30,510 (3)(4)   5,920  
    Total Reportable Segments   191,851     235,590     (43,739 )
    All Other            
    Corporate   204     61     143  
    Total Capital Expenditures $ 192,055   $ 235,651   $ (43,596 )
                       

     

    (1) Capital expenditures for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, include accounts payable and accrued liabilities related to capital expenditures of $56.3 million, $4.4 million, $6.0 million, and $4.9 million in the Exploration and Production segment, Pipeline and Storage segment, Gathering segment and Utility segment, respectively. These amounts have been excluded from the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows at December 31, 2024, since they represent non-cash investing activities at that date.
       
    (2) Capital expenditures for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, exclude capital expenditures of $63.3 million, $14.4 million, $21.7 million and $20.6 million in the Exploration and Production segment, Pipeline and Storage segment, Gathering segment and Utility segment, respectively. These amounts were in accounts payable and accrued liabilities at September 30, 2024 and paid during the quarter ended December 31, 2024. These amounts were excluded from the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows at September 30, 2024, since they represented non-cash investing activities at that date. These amounts have been included in the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows at December 31, 2024.
       
    (3) Capital expenditures for the quarter ended December 31, 2023, include accounts payable and accrued liabilities related to capital expenditures of $74.9 million, $5.5 million, $11.1 million, and $6.4 million in the Exploration and Production segment, Pipeline and Storage segment, Gathering segment and Utility segment, respectively. These amounts were excluded from the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows at December 31, 2023, since they represented non-cash investing activities at that date.
       
    (4) Capital expenditures for the quarter ended December 31, 2023, exclude capital expenditures of $43.2 million, $31.8 million, $20.6 million and $13.6 million in the Exploration and Production segment, Pipeline and Storage segment, Gathering segment and Utility segment, respectively. These amounts were in accounts payable and accrued liabilities at September 30, 2023 and paid during the quarter ended December 31, 2023. These amounts were excluded from the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows at September 30, 2023, since they represented non-cash investing activities at that date. These amounts have been included in the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows at December 31, 2023.
       
    DEGREE DAYS                  
                  Percent Colder
                  (Warmer) Than:
    Three Months Ended December 31, Normal   2024   2023   Normal (1)   Last Year (1)
    Buffalo, NY 2,253   1,884   1,858   (16.4)   1.4
    Erie, PA 1,894   1,697   1,664   (10.4)   2.0
                       
    (1) Percents compare actual 2024 degree days to normal degree days and actual 2024 degree days to actual 2023 degree days.
                       
    NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
    AND SUBSIDIARIES
               
    EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION INFORMATION
               
               
      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
              Increase
      2024   2023   (Decrease)
               
    Gas Production/Prices:          
    Production (MMcf)          
    Appalachia   97,717     100,757     (3,040 )
               
    Average Prices (Per Mcf)          
    Weighted Average $ 2.23   $ 2.31   $ (0.08 )
    Weighted Average after Hedging   2.53     2.51     0.02  
               
    Selected Operating Performance Statistics:          
    General and Administrative Expense per Mcf (1) $ 0.20   $ 0.18   $ 0.02  
    Lease Operating and Transportation Expense per Mcf (1)(2) $ 0.67   $ 0.67   $  
    Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization per Mcf (1) $ 0.65   $ 0.71   $ (0.06 )
               
    (1)  Refer to page 13 for the General and Administrative Expense, Lease Operating and Transportation Expense and Depreciation, Depletion, and Amortization Expense for the Exploration and Production segment.
     
    (2)  Amounts include transportation expense of $0.57 and $0.56 per Mcf for the three months ended December 31, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.
               
    NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
    AND SUBSIDIARIES
               
               
               
    Pipeline and Storage Throughput – (millions of cubic feet – MMcf)
               
      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
              Increase
      2024   2023   (Decrease)
    Firm Transportation – Affiliated 31,870   31,495   375  
    Firm Transportation – Non-Affiliated 171,012   168,606   2,406  
    Interruptible Transportation 62   118   (56 )
      202,944   200,219   2,725  
               
    Gathering Volume – (MMcf)          
      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
              Increase
      2024   2023   (Decrease)
    Gathered Volume 120,961   124,261   (3,300 )
               
               
    Utility Throughput – (MMcf)          
      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
              Increase
      2024   2023   (Decrease)
    Retail Sales:          
    Residential Sales 18,476   17,982   494  
    Commercial Sales 2,919   2,800   119  
    Industrial Sales 199   138   61  
      21,594   20,920   674  
    Transportation 16,942   17,528   (586 )
      38,536   38,448   88  
               

    NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY 
    AND SUBSIDIARIES 
    NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES

    In addition to financial measures calculated in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), this press release contains information regarding adjusted operating results, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow, which are non-GAAP financial measures. The Company believes that these non-GAAP financial measures are useful to investors because they provide an alternative method for assessing the Company’s ongoing operating results or liquidity and for comparing the Company’s financial performance to other companies. The Company’s management uses these non-GAAP financial measures for the same purpose, and for planning and forecasting purposes. The presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is not meant to be a substitute for financial measures in accordance with GAAP.

    Management defines adjusted operating results as reported GAAP earnings before items impacting comparability. The following table reconciles National Fuel’s reported GAAP earnings to adjusted operating results for the three months ended December 31, 2024 and 2023:

      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
    (in thousands except per share amounts) 2024   2023
    Reported GAAP Earnings $ 44,986     $ 133,020  
    Items impacting comparability:      
    Impairment of assets (E&P)   141,802        
    Tax impact of impairment of assets   (37,169 )      
    Unrealized (gain) loss on derivative asset (E&P)   349       4,198  
    Tax impact of unrealized (gain) loss on derivative asset   (94 )     (1,151 )
    Unrealized (gain) loss on other investments (Corporate / All Other)   2,617       (1,049 )
    Tax impact of unrealized (gain) loss on other investments   (550 )     220  
    Adjusted Operating Results $ 151,941     $ 135,238  
           
    Reported GAAP Earnings Per Share $ 0.49     $ 1.44  
    Items impacting comparability:      
    Impairment of assets, net of tax (E&P)   1.14        
    Unrealized (gain) loss on derivative asset, net of tax (E&P)         0.03  
    Unrealized (gain) loss on other investments, net of tax (Corporate / All Other)   0.02       (0.01 )
    Rounding   0.01        
    Adjusted Operating Results Per Share $ 1.66     $ 1.46  
                   

    Management defines adjusted EBITDA as reported GAAP earnings before the following items: interest expense, income taxes, depreciation, depletion and amortization, other income and deductions, impairments, and other items reflected in operating income that impact comparability. The following tables reconcile National Fuel’s reported GAAP earnings to adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended December 31, 2024 and 2023:

      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
    (in thousands) 2024   2023
    Reported GAAP Earnings $ 44,986     $ 133,020  
    Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization   109,370       115,790  
    Other (Income) Deductions   (7,720 )     (3,732 )
    Interest Expense   37,743       34,735  
    Income Taxes   11,182       43,087  
    Impairment of Assets   141,802        
    Adjusted EBITDA $ 337,363     $ 322,900  
           
    Adjusted EBITDA by Segment      
    Pipeline and Storage Adjusted EBITDA $ 70,953     $ 59,142  
    Gathering Adjusted EBITDA   51,936       53,061  
    Total Midstream Businesses Adjusted EBITDA   122,889       112,203  
    Exploration and Production Adjusted EBITDA   156,645       159,970  
    Utility Adjusted EBITDA   60,665       53,366  
    Corporate and All Other Adjusted EBITDA   (2,836 )     (2,639 )
    Total Adjusted EBITDA $ 337,363     $ 322,900  
                   
    NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
    AND SUBSIDIARIES
    NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES
    SEGMENT ADJUSTED EBITDA
       
      Three Months Ended
      December 31,
    (in thousands) 2024   2023
    Exploration and Production Segment      
    Reported GAAP Earnings $ (46,777 )   $ 52,483  
    Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization   63,304       71,965  
    Other (Income) Deductions   (309 )     1,413  
    Interest Expense   15,200       15,268  
    Income Taxes   (16,575 )     18,841  
    Impairment of Assets   141,802        
    Adjusted EBITDA $ 156,645     $ 159,970  
           
    Pipeline and Storage Segment      
    Reported GAAP Earnings $ 32,454     $ 24,055  
    Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization   18,585       18,213  
    Other (Income) Deductions   (2,992 )     (3,188 )
    Interest Expense   11,729       11,725  
    Income Taxes   11,177       8,337  
    Adjusted EBITDA $ 70,953     $ 59,142  
           
    Gathering Segment      
    Reported GAAP Earnings $ 27,145     $ 28,825  
    Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization   10,515       9,458  
    Other (Income) Deductions   (58 )     (82 )
    Interest Expense   4,210       3,729  
    Income Taxes   10,124       11,131  
    Adjusted EBITDA $ 51,936     $ 53,061  
           
    Utility Segment      
    Reported GAAP Earnings $ 32,499     $ 26,551  
    Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization   16,827       16,037  
    Other (Income) Deductions   (6,399 )     (2,381 )
    Interest Expense   10,716       8,457  
    Income Taxes   7,022       4,702  
    Adjusted EBITDA $ 60,665     $ 53,366  
           
    Corporate and All Other      
    Reported GAAP Earnings $ (335 )   $ 1,106  
    Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization   139       117  
    Other (Income) Deductions   2,038       506  
    Interest Expense   (4,112 )     (4,444 )
    Income Taxes   (566 )     76  
    Adjusted EBITDA $ (2,836 )   $ (2,639 )
                   

    Management defines free cash flow as net cash provided by operating activities, less net cash used in investing activities, adjusted for acquisitions and divestitures. The Company is unable to provide a reconciliation of any projected free cash flow measure to its comparable GAAP financial measure without unreasonable efforts. This is due to an inability to calculate the comparable GAAP projected metrics, including operating income and total production costs, given the unknown effect, timing, and potential significance of certain income statement items.

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI USA: First Lady Marty Kemp Introduces Tenth Anti-Human Trafficking Bill

    Source: US State of Georgia

    ATLANTA – Today, on behalf of First Lady Marty Kemp, the Office of the Governor rolled out its 10th piece of legislation aimed at cracking down on human traffickers and buyers in the state while making Georgia a safe haven for victims.

    The latest bill championed by First Lady Kemp, SB 42 closes a critical loophole in Georgia law and ensures traffickers face the full penalty that their crimes demand. Currently, the conduct prohibited by Georgia’s human trafficking statute against minors is substantially similar to the conduct prohibited by the crime of keeping a place of prostitution, pimping, and pandering against minors. Rule of lenity, a legal principle asserting courts should apply the more favorable sentence to defendants when the law is ambiguous, could lead to judges awarding lesser sentences to offenders as a result of this loophole.

    “Georgia is a national leader in the fight against human trafficking because of our work supporting survivors and shining a light on the dark corners where this crime thrives,” said First Lady Marty Kemp. “The legislation introduced today will further that mission by ensuring proper penalties for offenders and securing greater justice for their victims. It will also build on the other initiatives we’re launching this week to make Georgians more aware of the dangers of human trafficking and how to report suspected trafficking situations.”

    As a part of Human Trafficking Prevention and Awareness Month — observed each January — First Lady Kemp marked the occasion by announcing the following initiatives to better equip Georgians with the knowledge and tools to end this evil industry in the state:

    First Lady Kemp Releases Updated Human Trafficking Awareness Training

    In conjunction with the Department of Administrative Services (DOAS), the First Lady is releasing an updated human trafficking awareness training for state employees. This enhanced training incorporates new information on what Georgia has done in the years since to support survivors and empower law enforcement to go after offenders. Administered by DOAS, the training will be available to all state agencies, who are encouraged to have their employees participate. The training will also be available to the public on YouTube as a free and easily-accessible resource.

    “State employees are essential in the fight against human trafficking,” said DOAS Commissioner Rebecca Sullivan. “It’s imperative for everyone to recognize the signs and be prepared to report them to effectively raise awareness and prevent this horrific crime. This training video is a vital resource packed with statistics and real-life stories that empower our state employees and the public to identify and report signs of sex trafficking with confidence. Together, we can make a significant impact in combating this issue.”

    History of Training

    Following initial meetings of the GRACE Commission, the need to raise awareness of the nature and signs of human trafficking was identified as a priority to move the needle on ending trafficking in the state. That led to the development of a 30-minute video training resource that provided viewers with an overview of sex trafficking, the telltale signs of its participants, and what to do when they believe they may have observed a trafficking situation.

    First Lady Kemp and Georgia Ports Authority Release Updated Human Trafficking Public Service Announcement

    The First Lady also unveiled, in partnership with the Georgia Ports Authority (GPA) and the Criminal Justice Coordinating Council (CJCC), a public service announcement (PSA) that will run at the state’s ports. With thousands of trucks entering and exiting ports facilities each day, this PSA will help bring attention to what drivers travelling through high-traffic destinations across the state can do to help end sex trafficking in Georgia. The PSA can be viewed here.

    Georgia Ports joins with Georgia First Lady Marty Kemp and the CJCC organization to work together to end human trafficking in our state,” said Georgia Ports Authority President and CEO Griff Lynch. “Trucking companies are Georgia Ports’ frontline customers and are vital to our success. Their assistance is also instrumental in ending human trafficking by learning more about it and reporting any suspicious activities to law enforcement as they drive around the Peach State every day.”

    “CJCC is pleased to join First Lady Marty Kemp and the Georgia Ports Authority in a vital initiative to educate transportation professionals across Georgia about human trafficking,” said CJCC Executive Director Jay Neal. “Our goal is to ensure that victims are not only identified but also provided with the essential resources they need to heal and rebuild their lives. By equipping everyone with the tools to recognize the signs of human trafficking, we can work together to create a safer, more informed community.”

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-Evening Report: Women don’t have a ‘surge’ in fertility before menopause – but surprise pregnancies can happen, even after 45

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karin Hammarberg, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Global and Women’s Health, School of Public Health & Preventive Medicine, Monash University

    IKO-studio/Shutterstock

    Every now and then we see media reports about celebrities in their mid 40s having surprise pregnancies. Or you might hear stories like these from friends or relatives, or see them on TV.

    Menopause signals the end of a woman’s reproductive years and happens naturally between age 45 and 55 (the average is 51). After 12 months with no periods, a woman is considered postmenopausal.

    While the chance of pregnancy is very low in the years leading up to menopause – the so called menopausal transition or perimenopause – the chance is not zero.

    So, what do we know about the chance of conceiving naturally after age 45? And what are the risks?

    Is there a spike in fertility before menopause?

    The hormonal changes that accompany perimenopause cause changes to the menstrual cycle pattern, and some have suggested there can be a “surge” in fertility at perimenopause. But there’s no evidence this exists.

    In the years leading up to menopause, a woman’s periods often become irregular, and she might have some of the common symptoms of menopause such as hot flushes and night sweats.

    This might lead women to think they have hit menopause and can’t get pregnant anymore. But while pregnancy in a woman in her mid 40s is significantly less likely compared to a woman in her 20s or 30s, it’s still possible.

    The stats for natural pregnancies after age 45

    Although women in their mid- to late 40s sometimes have “miracle babies”, the chance of pregnancy is minimal in the five to ten years leading up to menopause.

    The monthly chance of pregnancy in a woman aged 30 is about 20%. By age 40 it’s less than 5% and by age 45 the chance is negligible.

    We don’t know exactly how many women become pregnant in their mid to late 40s, as many pregnancies at this age miscarry. The risk of miscarriage increases from 10% in women in their 20s to more than 50% in women aged 45 years or older. Also, for personal or medical reasons some pregnancies are terminated.

    According to a review of demographic data on age when women had their final birth across several countries, the median age was 38.6 years. But the range of ages reported for last birth in the reviewed studies showed a small proportion of women give birth after age 45.

    Having had many children before seems to increase the odds of giving birth after age 45. A study of 209 women in Israel who had conceived spontaneously and given birth after age 45 found 81% had already had six or more deliveries and almost half had had 11 or more previous deliveries.

    Conceiving naturally at age 45 plus is not unheard of.
    pixelheadphoto digitalskillet/Shutterstock

    There’s no reliable data on how common births after age 45 are in Australia. The most recent report on births in Australia show that about 5% of babies are born to women aged 40 years or older.

    However, most of those were likely born to women aged between 40 and 45. Also, the data includes women who conceive with assisted reproductive technologies, including with the use of donor eggs. For women in their 40s, using eggs donated by a younger woman significantly increases their chance of having a baby with IVF.

    What to be aware of if you experience a late unexpected pregnancy

    A surprise pregnancy late in life often comes as a shock and deciding what to do can be difficult.

    Depending on their personal circumstances, some women decide to terminate the pregnancy. Contrary to the stereotype that abortions are most common among very young women, women aged 40–44 are more likely to have an abortion than women aged 15–19.

    This may in part be explained by the fact older women are up to ten times more likely to have a fetus with chromosomal abnormalities.

    There are some extra risks involved in pregnancy when the mother is older. More than half of pregnancies in women aged 45 and older end in miscarriage and some are terminated if prenatal testing shows the fetus has the wrong number of chromosomes.

    This is because at that age, most eggs have chromosomal abnormalities. For example, the risk of having a pregnancy affected by Down syndrome is one in 86 at age 40 compared to one in 1,250 at age 20.

    There are some added risks associated with pregnancy when the mother is older.
    Natalia Deriabina/Shutterstock

    Apart from the increased risk of chromosomal abnormalities, advanced maternal age also increases the risk of stillbirth, fetal growth restriction (when the unborn baby doesn’t grow properly), preterm birth, pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes and caesarean section.

    However, it’s important to remember that since the overall risk of all these things is small, even with an increase, the risk is still small and most babies born to older mothers are born healthy.

    Multiple births are also more common in older women than in younger women. This is because older women are more likely to release more than one egg if and when they ovulate.

    A study of all births in England and Wales found women aged 45 and over were the most likely to have a multiple birth.

    The risks of babies being born prematurely and having health complications are higher in twin than singleton pregnancies, and the risks are highest in women of advanced maternal age.

    What if you want to become pregnant in your 40s?

    If you’re keen to avoid pregnancy during perimenopause, it’s recommended you use contraception.

    But if you want to get pregnant in your 40s, there are some things you can do to boost your chance of conceiving and having a healthy baby.

    These include preparing for pregnancy by seeing a GP for a preconception health check, taking folic acid and iodine supplements, not smoking, limiting alcohol consumption, maintaining a healthy weight, exercising regularly and having a nutritious diet.

    If you get good news, talking to a doctor about what to expect and how to best manage a pregnancy in your 40s can help you be prepared and will allow you to get personalised advice based on your health and circumstances.

    Karin Hammarberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Women don’t have a ‘surge’ in fertility before menopause – but surprise pregnancies can happen, even after 45 – https://theconversation.com/women-dont-have-a-surge-in-fertility-before-menopause-but-surprise-pregnancies-can-happen-even-after-45-247454

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz