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Category: Ukraine

  • MIL-OSI USA: Schatz Warns Against Rescinding Foreign Assistance Funding, Ceding Appropriations Authority To Trump Administration

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Hawaii Brian Schatz

    WASHINGTON – Today, during a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing on President Trump’s proposed rescission request to Congress, U.S. Senator Brian Schatz (D-Hawai‘i) warned colleagues against rescinding foreign assistance funding for programs that have long had bipartisan support. Schatz, who is a senior member of the committee and ranking member of the State and Foreign Operations Subcommittee which oversees much of the funding being cut in the package, questioned White House Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought about the lack of clarity from the administration about which specific programs will get cut should the package pass.

    “We do not have to spend foreign assistance dollars in the same way that we always have been spending foreign assistance dollars. There’s plenty of room for reform. But we’re being asked to rescind billions of dollars without even knowing which programs are being canceled,” said Senator Schatz.

    Senator Schatz added, “What’s at stake here is more than the particular provisions of the rescissions package. It is whether we’re going to willingly set up a situation where bipartisan negotiations are ripped up whenever there is a trifecta. If that’s what you want, I think you should vote yes. But if you want to preserve your prerogative, for yourself, for your home state and for this institution—then this is not a particularly close call. Why be an appropriator and just turn around and surrender your authority?”

    The text of Senator Schatz’s testimony, as delivered, is below. Video of the testimony and his exchange with Director Vought is available here.

    Thank you, Chair Collins, Vice Chair Murray, members of the Committee. This is the first time I’ve been on this side of the dais. I have to say that the altitude difference is affecting me a little bit. It really is an honor to be here to argue against this rescissions package on behalf of all of you. On behalf of all of you as appropriators.

    Now, I want to be abundantly clear—I like Eric Schmitt a lot, but this is a very important point, and it’s actually fatal to the rescissions package—every single program that Senator Schmitt just mentioned has already been canceled. Every single program. And there’s a longer list that was on a Fox News chyron and Senator Graham and I have kind of gone over all of this. There are a bunch of different examples of terrible sounding things. They are all done, and they all belong in the previous federal fiscal year.

    So, now that it’s Marco Rubio’s State Department, and Marco Rubio’s USAID agency, and now that it is Donald Trump’s White House, none of these things are happening. This is a rescission of Trump’s CR in the current federal fiscal year. And so, if you have a problem with any of those programs, let Lindsey and I write a bill that prohibits the use of funds for any of those seemingly improper uses of funds. That’s the way to do this.

    Colleagues are being asked on this Committee to cut programs that I know each one of you have personally prioritized, because we get the letters. Whether you’re the Chair or the Rank[ing Member] of a subcommittee, you get a letter from your colleagues saying, could you please prioritize XYZ program. And many of the programs—I mean I’m talking about right now. In the same time period, we are receiving letters. Please save this. Please save that. Please, plus up that. That’s what we’re cutting right now in this rescissions package.

    We do not have to spend foreign assistance dollars in the same way that we always have been spending foreign assistance dollars. There’s plenty of room for reform. You’re pushing on an open door. And in fact, the administration has until the end of next year. This is two-year money. There is no rush on this. This is two-year money to align this funding with its new priorities. But we’re being asked to rescind billions of dollars without even knowing which programs are being canceled.

    Just so you understand how this legislation works; it’s big baskets of money. So, you have no idea whether the program that you are prioritizing is going to be cut or not. And they are not providing any clarity about that. You would think that if you’re asking the Congress to use this extraordinary authority under statutory law, that you would have a line by line—here’s what we’re cutting, here’s what we’re keeping, here’s what we’re cutting, here’s what we’re keeping. The answer that we are going to receive is, let me take that under advisement and get back to you. Or—I don’t know—that it’s none of your business. Or, I’m not sure what it is. There is no reason not to have specificity other than, the math doesn’t add up. The things that you care about are being cut in here, and they don’t want to specify it.

    And that brings me to what it is definitely in this package:

    • $900 million in cuts from global health programs including PEPFAR and efforts to combat diseases like malaria, TB and polio.
    • $1.3 billion in cuts to humanitarian assistance, which save lives, provide food, and shelter, and water, and support victims of sexual assault.
    • And $4.6 billion in cuts to economic development assistance to key partners. Whether it’s Jordan with increasing regional tension, the Philippines as it counters Chinese aggression, the Burmese opposition, or Ukraine.
    • And gone is a billion dollars in support for organizations like UNICEF.

    Everybody that was opposed to those things that were on that Fox chyron—everybody that found some of the things that Senator Schmitt talked about as objectionable—also hastened to say I don’t want to cut UNICEF, I don’t want to cut PEPFAR, I don’t want to cut the World Food Programme.

    Guess what is in this rescissions package? All of those things are being cut, and none of the things that you object to. They’ve already been eliminated. This is not just a question of policy. This is also a question of what this committee is even for. Being a Senate appropriator is an honor. It means something. It means that the executive branch proposes and the legislative branch disposes. It means that we, as the article one branch, hold the purse strings. That, that is subject to cloture.

    So, what’s at stake here is more than the particular provisions of the rescissions package. It is whether we’re going to willingly set up a situation where bipartisan negotiations are ripped up whenever there is a trifecta. If that’s what you want, I think you should vote yes. But if you want to preserve your prerogative, for yourself, for your home state and for this institution—then this is not a particularly close call. Why be an appropriator and just turn around and surrender your authority? Because it is SFOPS today, but it’s going to be THUD, it’s going to be Ag, it’s going to be Labor-H, it’s going to be MilCon-VA, it’s going to be CJS tomorrow.

    So, I encourage all of my colleagues on a bipartisan basis to think hard about the precedent that we would be setting if we voted yes on this package.

    MIL OSI USA News –

    June 27, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Analysis: In the sky over Iran, Elon Musk and Starlink step into geopolitics – not for the first time

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Joscha Abels, Post-Doctoral Researcher, Institute of Political Science, University of Tübingen

    It was the briefest of messages, but the potential consequences could have been significant. Elon Musk posted a four-word tweet on June 14: “The beams are on”. The message prefigured a consequential intervention – not only in Iranian domestic affairs but potentially in the geopolitics of the Middle East. The US billionaire was responding to a request on his online platform X, asking him to activate the Starlink satellite system over Iran in support of anti-government protests.

    Following Israel’s military strikes on critical sites in Iran, the Islamic Republic imposed a large-scale internet shutdown that saw a drastic drop in connectivity throughout the county. Nationwide restrictions were placed on access to websites, social media platforms and mobile networks.

    This has effectively limited the inflow of media reports to the Iranian public. It has also made it more difficult for Iranians to organise amid violent crackdowns by the regime’s security forces. The activation of Starlink could allow them to bypass government censorship and restore contact with the outside world – and each other.

    It is not the first time Iran’s government has restricted internet access to stifle unrest – nor is it the first time that Musk got involved. In 2022, amid nationwide protests following the death of a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, at the hands of the security forces, ostensibly for wearing her hijab incorrectly, Musk activated Starlink over Iran for the first time.

    This triggered the smuggling of thousands of Starlink terminals into the country from neighbouring states. These terminals are flat rectangular devices, no larger than a baking tray. It is estimated that around 20,000 of them have found their way into Iran, giving Musk’s latest move a more immediate impact.

    Still, reestablishing internet coverage remains difficult. The few available Starlink terminals are traded on the black market at exorbitant prices, and Starlink services in Iran still require payments of a monthly subscription fee. Iran’s government has also issued threats against citizens who use the system.

    A new kind of warfare

    Starlink is the most advanced communication satellite system in the world. Orbiting Earth at an altitude of about 550kms, its satellites deliver high-speed internet to customers around the globe. Out of more than 12,000 active satellites in orbit, around 7,600 belong to Starlink.

    The system is operated by SpaceX, a space tech firm headquartered in Texas. SpaceX has recently become the world’s most valuable privately held company according to Bloomberg, surpassing even ByteDance (TikTok) and OpenAI.

    Musk continues to act as the company’s largest stakeholder and chief executive, even while wielding huge political influence (following his recent rift with the US president, there is evidence he still wields considerable political clout in the US).

    Starlink owes much of its geopolitical relevance to modern warfare. Secure communications have become essential on today’s data-driven battlefields. The mass availability of drones has fundamentally changed how wars are fought. High-bandwidth connections are needed for drones to transmit live video and receive targeting data.

    As land-based connections are vulnerable to sabotage and outright attacks, mega-constellations such as Starlink provide a robust alternative. Comprising thousands of units, several hundreds of kilometres above ground, their services are difficult to disrupt.

    Ukraine: a cautionary tale

    Nowhere has the importance of satellite communications for geopolitics been more evident than in Ukraine. Russia prepared its invasion by conducting cyberattacks on Ukraine’s Viasat system. Musk responded by activating Starlink, announcing the move in the same casual style that he used for Iran.

    The effect was immediate. Starlink quickly became indispensable for Ukraine’s counter-offensive efforts. Amid the Russian onslaught, it provided the nation’s military with secure communications to push back against the invasion. For SpaceX, this yielded not just hugely positive publicity but also substantial financial injections from investors.

    Just months into Starlink’s activation, SpaceX initiated a strategic shift. Ukrainian forces reported outages along the front lines, especially when pushing into Russian-occupied territory. In October 2022, Musk floated the idea that SpaceX might withdraw support altogether, citing high operational costs.

    By February 2023, the company had begun limiting Starlink’s use for the operation of Ukrainian drones. SpaceX’s chief operating office, Gwynne Shotwell stated that the system was “never intended to be weaponized”.

    Power in private hands

    Starlink’s role in Ukraine offers a striking example of how modern communications can change the course of conflicts, as I argued in a recent article in the European Journal of International Relations. At the same time, it serves as a cautionary tale about the reliability of critical systems in the hands of private corporations and powerful individuals.

    In Ukraine, Musk held the power to effectively veto military operations. No democratic body provided oversight – the signal could be switched off with a tweet. Starlink’s role in Iran raises similarly uncomfortable questions: who decides when – or whether – citizens get to communicate?

    While the region is struggling to establish a fragile ceasefire, political unrest in Iran is unlikely to subside soon. The deeper truth remains that communications within Iran’s civil society currently depend on the world’s wealthiest person – and no alternatives are in sight.

    Joscha Abels receives funding from the German Research Foundation (DFG), grant 526359979.

    – ref. In the sky over Iran, Elon Musk and Starlink step into geopolitics – not for the first time – https://theconversation.com/in-the-sky-over-iran-elon-musk-and-starlink-step-into-geopolitics-not-for-the-first-time-259833

    MIL OSI Analysis –

    June 27, 2025
  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Operation Interflex reaches three-year milestone

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    News story

    Operation Interflex reaches three-year milestone

    UK-led training programme of Ukrainian recruits launched on 26 June 2022.

    Crown copyright

    More than 56,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been trained by the UK and 13 partner nations on Operation Interflex; the UK-led, multination training programme.  

    Today (Thursday 26 June 2025) marks three years since the first Ukrainian trainees landed on British soil to begin the vital military training that turns civilians into soldiers capable of returning home to repel Russia’s illegal invasion of their country.  

    During this time Operation Interflex has continued to evolve to match the specific threats being faced on the frontlines in Ukraine. A variety of training programmes have been delivered via Operation Interflex focussed on equipping trainees with the battlefield essentials: the basic infantry course, leadership training, and instructor courses, which continuously adapt to Ukraine’s needs. 

    Led by the UK, Operation Interflex has been delivered alongside 13 other partner nations: Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Albania, Estonia, Kosovo, Lithuania, and Romania. Service personnel from these nations are united in the objective to deliver high quality training that meets the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.  

    At a recent meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG) on the 4 June, the Defence Secretary announced that the UK will spend a further £247m this year on training the Armed Forces of Ukraine, supporting Operation Interflex’s highly successful training programmes. This funding not only supports Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression, but it is also vital in ensuring both European and UK security, underpinned by the Government’s Plan for Change.  

    Recent polling data reveals that 90% of all the trainees who have completed Interflex training since January 2025 feel more confident in their lethality and survivability at the end of training. The polling also revealed that one of the most valued elements of the training is the battlefield first aid, with 93% of basic recruits saying they felt more confident about treating casualties after receiving the training.  

    Minister for the Armed Forces, Luke Pollard MP said: 

    From each Ukrainian soldier made combat-ready on UK soil, to the £13bn committed in military support, we are proud of every element of our contribution to Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s illegal invasion.  

    The Government is clear that providing military support to Ukraine is essential to both UK and European security. Keeping the country safe is the Government’s first priority, and a foundation of its Plan for Change. 

    The UK and its allies are united in our support for Ukraine. I am sure they share my constant awe of the resilience shown by the Ukrainian people in the face of Russian aggression.” 

    Colonel Andrew Boardman, Commanding Officer of Operation Interflex: 

    Today marks three years since the launch of Operation INTERFLEX to train Ukrainian personnel in the UK. Over this period, the multinational coalition of 14 nations, led by the UK, has trained over 56,000 Ukrainian soldiers, a testament to the enduring strength and shared resolve of our international partnership.  

    This milestone reflects not only our unity of purpose but our unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s freedom and NATO’s collective security.” 

    The UK is proud to be a leading partner in providing vital support to Ukraine. The government has committed £13 billion of military aid for Ukraine, with £4.5 billion expected to be provided this year. This military aid includes training programmes like Operation Interflex, but also military capabilities and equipment such as drones, air defence systems and munitions.  

    The UK and Ukraine’s allies are committed to supporting Ukraine secure a just and lasting peace. The training effort provided by Operation Interflex aims to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position to achieve this peace and to safeguard their sovereignty and our collective security against Russian aggression.

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    Updates to this page

    Published 26 June 2025

    Invasion of Ukraine

    • UK visa support for Ukrainian nationals
    • Move to the UK if you’re coming from Ukraine
    • Homes for Ukraine: record your interest
    • Find out about the UK’s response

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

    June 27, 2025
  • MIL-OSI NGOs: Update 298 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine

    Source: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) –

    Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remains reliant on one single off-site power line to receive the external electricity it needs to cool its six reactors and their spent fuel, some seven weeks after it lost the connection to its last back-up power line, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said today.

    “The extremely fragile external power situation as well as challenges related to the availability of cooling water after the Kakhovka dam was destroyed two years ago underline the fact that nuclear safety remains highly precarious at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. There are many important issues that must be addressed before it will be feasible to restart the plant,” Director General Grossi said.

    The 330 kilovolt (kV) power line was disconnected on 7 May due to military activities some distance away from the ZNPP, leaving Europe’s largest nuclear power plant (NPP) dependent on one 750 kV line. Before the conflict, it had access to ten off-site power lines. Its six reactors have been in cold shutdown since 2024, but still require cooling water for their reactor cores.

    Almost every day over the past week, the IAEA team based at the ZNPP has continued to hear explosions at various distances away from the site, a constant reminder of the close proximity to the frontline of the conflict.

    The IAEA team has continued to conduct walkdowns across the site as part of the Agency’s mission to monitor and assess nuclear safety and security there.

    Elsewhere in Ukraine, the IAEA teams at Ukraine’s three operating NPPs – Khmelnytskyy, Rivne and the South Ukraine – and the Chornobyl site reported hearing air-raid alarms over the past week. The teams at the Chornobyl site and the Rivne and South Ukraine NPPs have all rotated in recent days. Early on 21 June, the IAEA team at the South Ukraine NPP observed a drone around one kilometre from their hotel.

    Two new deliveries of equipment have taken place under the IAEA’s comprehensive assistance programme for nuclear safety and security in Ukraine, bringing the total number of such shipments to 142 since the start of the armed conflict.

    The State Enterprise Ukrainian Geological Company received portable radiation detection and monitoring devices within the framework of the IAEA Support and Assistance Mission to the Kherson Oblast (ISAMKO) programme in response to flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in mid-2023. The two deliveries were supported with funds from Japan.

    MIL OSI NGO –

    June 27, 2025
  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Update 298 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine

    Source: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

    Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remains reliant on one single off-site power line to receive the external electricity it needs to cool its six reactors and their spent fuel, some seven weeks after it lost the connection to its last back-up power line, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said today.

    “The extremely fragile external power situation as well as challenges related to the availability of cooling water after the Kakhovka dam was destroyed two years ago underline the fact that nuclear safety remains highly precarious at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. There are many important issues that must be addressed before it will be feasible to restart the plant,” Director General Grossi said.

    The 330 kilovolt (kV) power line was disconnected on 7 May due to military activities some distance away from the ZNPP, leaving Europe’s largest nuclear power plant (NPP) dependent on one 750 kV line. Before the conflict, it had access to ten off-site power lines. Its six reactors have been in cold shutdown since 2024, but still require cooling water for their reactor cores.

    Almost every day over the past week, the IAEA team based at the ZNPP has continued to hear explosions at various distances away from the site, a constant reminder of the close proximity to the frontline of the conflict.

    The IAEA team has continued to conduct walkdowns across the site as part of the Agency’s mission to monitor and assess nuclear safety and security there.

    Elsewhere in Ukraine, the IAEA teams at Ukraine’s three operating NPPs – Khmelnytskyy, Rivne and the South Ukraine – and the Chornobyl site reported hearing air-raid alarms over the past week. The teams at the Chornobyl site and the Rivne and South Ukraine NPPs have all rotated in recent days. Early on 21 June, the IAEA team at the South Ukraine NPP observed a drone around one kilometre from their hotel.

    Two new deliveries of equipment have taken place under the IAEA’s comprehensive assistance programme for nuclear safety and security in Ukraine, bringing the total number of such shipments to 142 since the start of the armed conflict.

    The State Enterprise Ukrainian Geological Company received portable radiation detection and monitoring devices within the framework of the IAEA Support and Assistance Mission to the Kherson Oblast (ISAMKO) programme in response to flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in mid-2023. The two deliveries were supported with funds from Japan.

    MIL OSI United Nations News –

    June 27, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Security: Update 298 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine

    Source: International Atomic Energy Agency – IAEA

    Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remains reliant on one single off-site power line to receive the external electricity it needs to cool its six reactors and their spent fuel, some seven weeks after it lost the connection to its last back-up power line, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said today.

    “The extremely fragile external power situation as well as challenges related to the availability of cooling water after the Kakhovka dam was destroyed two years ago underline the fact that nuclear safety remains highly precarious at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. There are many important issues that must be addressed before it will be feasible to restart the plant,” Director General Grossi said.

    The 330 kilovolt (kV) power line was disconnected on 7 May due to military activities some distance away from the ZNPP, leaving Europe’s largest nuclear power plant (NPP) dependent on one 750 kV line. Before the conflict, it had access to ten off-site power lines. Its six reactors have been in cold shutdown since 2024, but still require cooling water for their reactor cores.

    Almost every day over the past week, the IAEA team based at the ZNPP has continued to hear explosions at various distances away from the site, a constant reminder of the close proximity to the frontline of the conflict.

    The IAEA team has continued to conduct walkdowns across the site as part of the Agency’s mission to monitor and assess nuclear safety and security there.

    Elsewhere in Ukraine, the IAEA teams at Ukraine’s three operating NPPs – Khmelnytskyy, Rivne and the South Ukraine – and the Chornobyl site reported hearing air-raid alarms over the past week. The teams at the Chornobyl site and the Rivne and South Ukraine NPPs have all rotated in recent days. Early on 21 June, the IAEA team at the South Ukraine NPP observed a drone around one kilometre from their hotel.

    Two new deliveries of equipment have taken place under the IAEA’s comprehensive assistance programme for nuclear safety and security in Ukraine, bringing the total number of such shipments to 142 since the start of the armed conflict.

    The State Enterprise Ukrainian Geological Company received portable radiation detection and monitoring devices within the framework of the IAEA Support and Assistance Mission to the Kherson Oblast (ISAMKO) programme in response to flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in mid-2023. The two deliveries were supported with funds from Japan.

    MIL Security OSI –

    June 27, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Security: Update 298 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine

    Source: International Atomic Energy Agency – IAEA

    Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) remains reliant on one single off-site power line to receive the external electricity it needs to cool its six reactors and their spent fuel, some seven weeks after it lost the connection to its last back-up power line, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said today.

    “The extremely fragile external power situation as well as challenges related to the availability of cooling water after the Kakhovka dam was destroyed two years ago underline the fact that nuclear safety remains highly precarious at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant. There are many important issues that must be addressed before it will be feasible to restart the plant,” Director General Grossi said.

    The 330 kilovolt (kV) power line was disconnected on 7 May due to military activities some distance away from the ZNPP, leaving Europe’s largest nuclear power plant (NPP) dependent on one 750 kV line. Before the conflict, it had access to ten off-site power lines. Its six reactors have been in cold shutdown since 2024, but still require cooling water for their reactor cores.

    Almost every day over the past week, the IAEA team based at the ZNPP has continued to hear explosions at various distances away from the site, a constant reminder of the close proximity to the frontline of the conflict.

    The IAEA team has continued to conduct walkdowns across the site as part of the Agency’s mission to monitor and assess nuclear safety and security there.

    Elsewhere in Ukraine, the IAEA teams at Ukraine’s three operating NPPs – Khmelnytskyy, Rivne and the South Ukraine – and the Chornobyl site reported hearing air-raid alarms over the past week. The teams at the Chornobyl site and the Rivne and South Ukraine NPPs have all rotated in recent days. Early on 21 June, the IAEA team at the South Ukraine NPP observed a drone around one kilometre from their hotel.

    Two new deliveries of equipment have taken place under the IAEA’s comprehensive assistance programme for nuclear safety and security in Ukraine, bringing the total number of such shipments to 142 since the start of the armed conflict.

    The State Enterprise Ukrainian Geological Company received portable radiation detection and monitoring devices within the framework of the IAEA Support and Assistance Mission to the Kherson Oblast (ISAMKO) programme in response to flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in mid-2023. The two deliveries were supported with funds from Japan.

    MIL Security OSI –

    June 27, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Africa: Sudan: foreign interests are deepening a devastating war – only regional diplomacy can stop them

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By John Mukum Mbaku, Professor, Weber State University

    The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has raged since April 2023. It’s turned Sudan into the site of one of the world’s most catastrophic humanitarian and displacement crises.

    At least 150,000 people have been killed. More than 14 million have been displaced, with over 3 million fleeing to neighbouring countries like Chad, Ethiopia and South Sudan. Once a vibrant capital city, Khartoum is now a “burnt-out shell”.

    This devastating war, rooted in long-standing ethnic, political and economic tensions, has been compounded by what international and regional actors have done and failed to do. As Amnesty International notes, the international response remains “woefully inadequate”.

    The problem lies in the fact that external involvement has not been neutral. Instead of halting the conflict, many external players have complicated it. In some cases, international interventions have escalated it.

    More than 10 countries across Africa, the Middle East and Asia have been drawn into Sudan’s war. This has turned it into a proxy conflict that reflects the interests of external actors, such as Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

    Several actors have taken sides.

    Saudi Arabia, for instance, backs the Sudanese army. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is alleged to support the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Egypt, citing historical ties, backs the army. For their part, Ethiopia and Eritrea reportedly support the paramilitary group. Chad has been accused of facilitating arms shipments to the Rapid Support Forces via its eastern airports. Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and Iran have also been linked to diplomatic and military support to Sudan’s army.

    These geopolitical entanglements have made peace nearly impossible, deepening the conflict instead of resolving it.

    I have studied Africa’s governance failures for more than 30 years, from military elites and coups to state capture and political instability. Based on this, my view is that Sudan’s conflict cannot be resolved without serious international commitment to neutrality and peace.


    Read more: Sudan’s peace mediation should be led by the African Union: 3 reasons why


    The involvement of foreign actors on opposing sides must be reversed. International involvement must be premised on helping the Sudanese people develop the capacity to resolve governance problems themselves.

    For this to happen, regional diplomacy must be stepped up. The African Union must assert its legitimacy and take the lead in addressing this challenging crisis. It can do this by putting pressure on member states to ensure that any ceasefire agreements are enforced.

    The East African Community and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development can provide assistance in securing a peace agreement and ensuring it’s enforced. Members of these continental organisations can encourage external actors to limit their intervention in Sudan to activities that promote democratic governance and sustainable development.

    The African Union

    The African Union should play a central role in bringing peace to Sudan. But its absence has been conspicuous.

    Despite adopting the “African solutions to African problems” mantra, the African Union has neither held Sudan’s warlords accountable nor put in place adequate civilian protection measures.

    First, it could have worked closely with the UN to deploy a mission to Sudan with a mandate to protect civilians, monitor human rights (especially the rights of women and girls), assist in the return of all displaced persons and prevent any further attacks on civilians.

    Second, the African Union could have sent an expert group to investigate human rights violations, especially sexual violence. The results could have been submitted to the union’s Peace and Security Council for further action.

    Third, the African Union could have worked closely with regional and international actors, including the Arab League. This would ensure a unified approach to the conflict, based on the interests of Sudanese people for peace and development.

    Finally, the AU could have addressed the root causes of Sudan’s conflicts, which include extreme poverty, inequality, political exclusion and economic marginalisation.

    The African Union could also make use of the insights and knowledge gleaned by African leaders like Kenya’s William Ruto and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who have attempted to mediate, but have failed. The AU should also use the political expertise of elder statesmen, such as Thabo Mbeki, Moussa Faki and Olusegun Obasanjo, to help address the conflict and humanitarian crisis.

    The United Arab Emirates

    The UAE is alleged to back the paramilitary troops in the war. In recent years, the UAE has become increasingly involved in African conflicts. It has supported various factions to conflicts in the Horn of Africa, the Sahel region and Libya.

    Its increased involvement in Africa is driven by several strategic interests. These include fighting terrorism, securing maritime routes, and expanding its trade and influence.


    Read more: Sudan is burning and foreign powers are benefiting – what’s in it for the UAE


    In 2009, the UAE helped Sudan mediate its border conflict with Chad. The UAE supported the ouster of Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, as well as Sudan’s transitional military council.

    In 2021, the UAE signed a strategic partnership with Sudan to modernise its political institutions and return the country to the international community. The UAE has stated that it has taken a neutral position in the present conflict. However, on 6 March 2025, Sudan brought a case against the UAE to the International Court of Justice. It accused the UAE of complicity in genocide, alleging that the UAE “has been arming the RSF with the aim of wiping out the non-Arab Massalit population of West Darfur.”

    The United States

    During his first term, US president Donald Trump spearheaded the Abraham Accords. These agreements were aimed at normalising relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including Sudan. Subsequently, Sudan was removed from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.

    The accords appeared to have brought Khartoum closer to Washington. They provided avenues for the type of engagement that could have placed it in good stead when Trump returned to the White House in 2025.

    However, Sudan’s internal political and economic instability, including the present civil war, has complicated the situation.

    The Abraham Accords were a significant foreign policy achievement for Trump. A peaceful, democratically governed, and economically stable and prosperous Sudan could serve as the foundation for Trump’s “circle of peace” in the Middle East.

    But Trump and his administration are preoccupied with other domestic and foreign policy priorities. During his May 2025 visit to Saudi Arabia, Trump did not officially address the conflict in Sudan. Instead, he placed emphasis on securing business deals and investments.

    The European Union

    The European Union has strongly condemned the violence and the atrocities committed during the war in Sudan, especially against children and women. The organisation has appealed for an immediate and lasting ceasefire while noting that Sudan faces the “most catastrophic humanitarian crisis of the 21st century”.

    Unfortunately, member countries will remain preoccupied with helping Ukraine, especially given the growing uncertainty in Washington’s relationship with the authorities in Kyiv.

    The preoccupation and focus of the EU and the US on Gaza, Ukraine and Iran may, however, be underestimating the geopolitical risks Sudan’s war is generating.

    A peaceful and democratically governed Sudan can contribute to peace not just in the region, but also in many other parts of the world.

    What now?

    To end Sudan’s war and prevent future ones, international and African actors must do more than issue statements. They must act coherently, collectively and with genuine commitment to the Sudanese people’s right to peace, democratic governance and sustainable development.

    Democracy and the rule of law are key to peaceful coexistence and sustainable development in Sudan. However, establishing and sustaining institutions that enhance and support democracy is the job of the Sudanese people. The external community can provide the financial support that Sudan is likely to need. It can also support the strengthening of electoral systems, civic education and citizen trust in public institutions.

    – Sudan: foreign interests are deepening a devastating war – only regional diplomacy can stop them
    – https://theconversation.com/sudan-foreign-interests-are-deepening-a-devastating-war-only-regional-diplomacy-can-stop-them-259824

    MIL OSI Africa –

    June 27, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Sudan: foreign interests are deepening a devastating war – only regional diplomacy can stop them

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By John Mukum Mbaku, Professor, Weber State University

    The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has raged since April 2023. It’s turned Sudan into the site of one of the world’s most catastrophic humanitarian and displacement crises.

    At least 150,000 people have been killed. More than 14 million have been displaced, with over 3 million fleeing to neighbouring countries like Chad, Ethiopia and South Sudan. Once a vibrant capital city, Khartoum is now a “burnt-out shell”.

    This devastating war, rooted in long-standing ethnic, political and economic tensions, has been compounded by what international and regional actors have done and failed to do. As Amnesty International notes, the international response remains “woefully inadequate”.

    The problem lies in the fact that external involvement has not been neutral. Instead of halting the conflict, many external players have complicated it. In some cases, international interventions have escalated it.

    More than 10 countries across Africa, the Middle East and Asia have been drawn into Sudan’s war. This has turned it into a proxy conflict that reflects the interests of external actors, such as Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

    Several actors have taken sides.

    Saudi Arabia, for instance, backs the Sudanese army. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is alleged to support the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Egypt, citing historical ties, backs the army. For their part, Ethiopia and Eritrea reportedly support the paramilitary group. Chad has been accused of facilitating arms shipments to the Rapid Support Forces via its eastern airports. Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and Iran have also been linked to diplomatic and military support to Sudan’s army.

    These geopolitical entanglements have made peace nearly impossible, deepening the conflict instead of resolving it.

    I have studied Africa’s governance failures for more than 30 years, from military elites and coups to state capture and political instability. Based on this, my view is that Sudan’s conflict cannot be resolved without serious international commitment to neutrality and peace.




    Read more:
    Sudan’s peace mediation should be led by the African Union: 3 reasons why


    The involvement of foreign actors on opposing sides must be reversed. International involvement must be premised on helping the Sudanese people develop the capacity to resolve governance problems themselves.

    For this to happen, regional diplomacy must be stepped up. The African Union must assert its legitimacy and take the lead in addressing this challenging crisis. It can do this by putting pressure on member states to ensure that any ceasefire agreements are enforced.

    The East African Community and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development can provide assistance in securing a peace agreement and ensuring it’s enforced. Members of these continental organisations can encourage external actors to limit their intervention in Sudan to activities that promote democratic governance and sustainable development.

    The African Union

    The African Union should play a central role in bringing peace to Sudan. But its absence has been conspicuous.

    Despite adopting the “African solutions to African problems” mantra, the African Union has neither held Sudan’s warlords accountable nor put in place adequate civilian protection measures.

    First, it could have worked closely with the UN to deploy a mission to Sudan with a mandate to protect civilians, monitor human rights (especially the rights of women and girls), assist in the return of all displaced persons and prevent any further attacks on civilians.

    Second, the African Union could have sent an expert group to investigate human rights violations, especially sexual violence. The results could have been submitted to the union’s Peace and Security Council for further action.

    Third, the African Union could have worked closely with regional and international actors, including the Arab League. This would ensure a unified approach to the conflict, based on the interests of Sudanese people for peace and development.

    Finally, the AU could have addressed the root causes of Sudan’s conflicts, which include extreme poverty, inequality, political exclusion and economic marginalisation.

    The African Union could also make use of the insights and knowledge gleaned by African leaders like Kenya’s William Ruto and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who have attempted to mediate, but have failed. The AU should also use the political expertise of elder statesmen, such as Thabo Mbeki, Moussa Faki and Olusegun Obasanjo, to help address the conflict and humanitarian crisis.

    The United Arab Emirates

    The UAE is alleged to back the paramilitary troops in the war. In recent years, the UAE has become increasingly involved in African conflicts. It has supported various factions to conflicts in the Horn of Africa, the Sahel region and Libya.

    Its increased involvement in Africa is driven by several strategic interests. These include fighting terrorism, securing maritime routes, and expanding its trade and influence.




    Read more:
    Sudan is burning and foreign powers are benefiting – what’s in it for the UAE


    In 2009, the UAE helped Sudan mediate its border conflict with Chad. The UAE supported the ouster of Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, as well as Sudan’s transitional military council.

    In 2021, the UAE signed a strategic partnership with Sudan to modernise its political institutions and return the country to the international community. The UAE has stated that it has taken a neutral position in the present conflict. However, on 6 March 2025, Sudan brought a case against the UAE to the International Court of Justice. It accused the UAE of complicity in genocide, alleging that the UAE “has been arming the RSF with the aim of wiping out the non-Arab Massalit population of West Darfur.”

    The United States

    During his first term, US president Donald Trump spearheaded the Abraham Accords. These agreements were aimed at normalising relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including Sudan. Subsequently, Sudan was removed from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.

    The accords appeared to have brought Khartoum closer to Washington. They provided avenues for the type of engagement that could have placed it in good stead when Trump returned to the White House in 2025.

    However, Sudan’s internal political and economic instability, including the present civil war, has complicated the situation.

    The Abraham Accords were a significant foreign policy achievement for Trump. A peaceful, democratically governed, and economically stable and prosperous Sudan could serve as the foundation for Trump’s “circle of peace” in the Middle East.

    But Trump and his administration are preoccupied with other domestic and foreign policy priorities. During his May 2025 visit to Saudi Arabia, Trump did not officially address the conflict in Sudan. Instead, he placed emphasis on securing business deals and investments.

    The European Union

    The European Union has strongly condemned the violence and the atrocities committed during the war in Sudan, especially against children and women. The organisation has appealed for an immediate and lasting ceasefire while noting that Sudan faces the “most catastrophic humanitarian crisis of the 21st century”.

    Unfortunately, member countries will remain preoccupied with helping Ukraine, especially given the growing uncertainty in Washington’s relationship with the authorities in Kyiv.

    The preoccupation and focus of the EU and the US on Gaza, Ukraine and Iran may, however, be underestimating the geopolitical risks Sudan’s war is generating.

    A peaceful and democratically governed Sudan can contribute to peace not just in the region, but also in many other parts of the world.

    What now?

    To end Sudan’s war and prevent future ones, international and African actors must do more than issue statements. They must act coherently, collectively and with genuine commitment to the Sudanese people’s right to peace, democratic governance and sustainable development.

    Democracy and the rule of law are key to peaceful coexistence and sustainable development in Sudan. However, establishing and sustaining institutions that enhance and support democracy is the job of the Sudanese people. The external community can provide the financial support that Sudan is likely to need. It can also support the strengthening of electoral systems, civic education and citizen trust in public institutions.

    John Mukum Mbaku does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sudan: foreign interests are deepening a devastating war – only regional diplomacy can stop them – https://theconversation.com/sudan-foreign-interests-are-deepening-a-devastating-war-only-regional-diplomacy-can-stop-them-259824

    MIL OSI Analysis –

    June 27, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Sudan: foreign interests are deepening a devastating war – only regional diplomacy can stop them

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By John Mukum Mbaku, Professor, Weber State University

    The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has raged since April 2023. It’s turned Sudan into the site of one of the world’s most catastrophic humanitarian and displacement crises.

    At least 150,000 people have been killed. More than 14 million have been displaced, with over 3 million fleeing to neighbouring countries like Chad, Ethiopia and South Sudan. Once a vibrant capital city, Khartoum is now a “burnt-out shell”.

    This devastating war, rooted in long-standing ethnic, political and economic tensions, has been compounded by what international and regional actors have done and failed to do. As Amnesty International notes, the international response remains “woefully inadequate”.

    The problem lies in the fact that external involvement has not been neutral. Instead of halting the conflict, many external players have complicated it. In some cases, international interventions have escalated it.

    More than 10 countries across Africa, the Middle East and Asia have been drawn into Sudan’s war. This has turned it into a proxy conflict that reflects the interests of external actors, such as Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

    Several actors have taken sides.

    Saudi Arabia, for instance, backs the Sudanese army. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is alleged to support the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Egypt, citing historical ties, backs the army. For their part, Ethiopia and Eritrea reportedly support the paramilitary group. Chad has been accused of facilitating arms shipments to the Rapid Support Forces via its eastern airports. Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and Iran have also been linked to diplomatic and military support to Sudan’s army.

    These geopolitical entanglements have made peace nearly impossible, deepening the conflict instead of resolving it.

    I have studied Africa’s governance failures for more than 30 years, from military elites and coups to state capture and political instability. Based on this, my view is that Sudan’s conflict cannot be resolved without serious international commitment to neutrality and peace.




    Read more:
    Sudan’s peace mediation should be led by the African Union: 3 reasons why


    The involvement of foreign actors on opposing sides must be reversed. International involvement must be premised on helping the Sudanese people develop the capacity to resolve governance problems themselves.

    For this to happen, regional diplomacy must be stepped up. The African Union must assert its legitimacy and take the lead in addressing this challenging crisis. It can do this by putting pressure on member states to ensure that any ceasefire agreements are enforced.

    The East African Community and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development can provide assistance in securing a peace agreement and ensuring it’s enforced. Members of these continental organisations can encourage external actors to limit their intervention in Sudan to activities that promote democratic governance and sustainable development.

    The African Union

    The African Union should play a central role in bringing peace to Sudan. But its absence has been conspicuous.

    Despite adopting the “African solutions to African problems” mantra, the African Union has neither held Sudan’s warlords accountable nor put in place adequate civilian protection measures.

    First, it could have worked closely with the UN to deploy a mission to Sudan with a mandate to protect civilians, monitor human rights (especially the rights of women and girls), assist in the return of all displaced persons and prevent any further attacks on civilians.

    Second, the African Union could have sent an expert group to investigate human rights violations, especially sexual violence. The results could have been submitted to the union’s Peace and Security Council for further action.

    Third, the African Union could have worked closely with regional and international actors, including the Arab League. This would ensure a unified approach to the conflict, based on the interests of Sudanese people for peace and development.

    Finally, the AU could have addressed the root causes of Sudan’s conflicts, which include extreme poverty, inequality, political exclusion and economic marginalisation.

    The African Union could also make use of the insights and knowledge gleaned by African leaders like Kenya’s William Ruto and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who have attempted to mediate, but have failed. The AU should also use the political expertise of elder statesmen, such as Thabo Mbeki, Moussa Faki and Olusegun Obasanjo, to help address the conflict and humanitarian crisis.

    The United Arab Emirates

    The UAE is alleged to back the paramilitary troops in the war. In recent years, the UAE has become increasingly involved in African conflicts. It has supported various factions to conflicts in the Horn of Africa, the Sahel region and Libya.

    Its increased involvement in Africa is driven by several strategic interests. These include fighting terrorism, securing maritime routes, and expanding its trade and influence.




    Read more:
    Sudan is burning and foreign powers are benefiting – what’s in it for the UAE


    In 2009, the UAE helped Sudan mediate its border conflict with Chad. The UAE supported the ouster of Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, as well as Sudan’s transitional military council.

    In 2021, the UAE signed a strategic partnership with Sudan to modernise its political institutions and return the country to the international community. The UAE has stated that it has taken a neutral position in the present conflict. However, on 6 March 2025, Sudan brought a case against the UAE to the International Court of Justice. It accused the UAE of complicity in genocide, alleging that the UAE “has been arming the RSF with the aim of wiping out the non-Arab Massalit population of West Darfur.”

    The United States

    During his first term, US president Donald Trump spearheaded the Abraham Accords. These agreements were aimed at normalising relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including Sudan. Subsequently, Sudan was removed from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism.

    The accords appeared to have brought Khartoum closer to Washington. They provided avenues for the type of engagement that could have placed it in good stead when Trump returned to the White House in 2025.

    However, Sudan’s internal political and economic instability, including the present civil war, has complicated the situation.

    The Abraham Accords were a significant foreign policy achievement for Trump. A peaceful, democratically governed, and economically stable and prosperous Sudan could serve as the foundation for Trump’s “circle of peace” in the Middle East.

    But Trump and his administration are preoccupied with other domestic and foreign policy priorities. During his May 2025 visit to Saudi Arabia, Trump did not officially address the conflict in Sudan. Instead, he placed emphasis on securing business deals and investments.

    The European Union

    The European Union has strongly condemned the violence and the atrocities committed during the war in Sudan, especially against children and women. The organisation has appealed for an immediate and lasting ceasefire while noting that Sudan faces the “most catastrophic humanitarian crisis of the 21st century”.

    Unfortunately, member countries will remain preoccupied with helping Ukraine, especially given the growing uncertainty in Washington’s relationship with the authorities in Kyiv.

    The preoccupation and focus of the EU and the US on Gaza, Ukraine and Iran may, however, be underestimating the geopolitical risks Sudan’s war is generating.

    A peaceful and democratically governed Sudan can contribute to peace not just in the region, but also in many other parts of the world.

    What now?

    To end Sudan’s war and prevent future ones, international and African actors must do more than issue statements. They must act coherently, collectively and with genuine commitment to the Sudanese people’s right to peace, democratic governance and sustainable development.

    Democracy and the rule of law are key to peaceful coexistence and sustainable development in Sudan. However, establishing and sustaining institutions that enhance and support democracy is the job of the Sudanese people. The external community can provide the financial support that Sudan is likely to need. It can also support the strengthening of electoral systems, civic education and citizen trust in public institutions.

    John Mukum Mbaku does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Sudan: foreign interests are deepening a devastating war – only regional diplomacy can stop them – https://theconversation.com/sudan-foreign-interests-are-deepening-a-devastating-war-only-regional-diplomacy-can-stop-them-259824

    MIL OSI Analysis –

    June 27, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Oil shocks in the 1970s drove rapid changes in transport. It could happen again if Middle East tensions continue

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of Technology

    The Image Bank/Getty

    As the world watches the US–Iran situation with concern, the ripple effect from these events are reaching global oil supply chains – and exposing their fragility.

    If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz as it is considering, it would restrict the global oil trade and trigger energy chaos.

    Petrol in some Australian cities could hit A$2.50 a litre according to some economists. As global instability worsens, other experts warn price spikes are increasingly likely.

    What would happen next? There is a precedent: the oil shocks of the 1970s, when oil prices quadrupled. The shock drove rapid change, from more efficient cars to sudden interest in alternative energy sources. This time, motorists would likely switch to electric vehicles.

    If this crisis continues or if another one flares up, it could mark a turning point in Australia’s long dependence on foreign oil.

    What would an oil shock mean?

    Australia currently imports 80% of its liquid fuels, the highest level on record. If the flow of oil stopped, we would have about 50 days worth in storage before we ran out.

    Our cars, buses, trucks and planes run overwhelmingly on petrol and diesel. Almost three-quarters (74%) of these liquid fuels are used in transport, with road transport accounting for more than half (54%) of all liquid fuels. Australia is highly exposed to global supply shocks.

    The best available option to reduce dependence on oil imports is to electrify transport.

    How does Australia compare on EVs?

    EV uptake in Australia continues to lag behind global leaders. In 2024, EVs accounted for 9.65% of new car sales in Australia, up from 8.45% in 2023.

    In the first quarter of 2025, EVs were 6.3% of new car sales, a decline from 7.4% in the final quarter of 2024.

    Norway remains the global leader, with battery-electric passenger cars making up 88.9% of sales in 2024. The United Kingdom also saw significant growth – EVs hit almost 20% of new car registrations in 2024.

    In China, EVs made up 40.9% of new car sales in 2024. The 12.87 million cars sold represent three-quarters of total EV sales worldwide.

    One reason for Australia’s sluggishness is a lack of reliable public chargers. While charging infrastructure is expanding, large parts of regional Australia still lack reliable access to EV charging.

    Until recently, Australia’s fuel efficiency standards were among the weakest in the OECD. Earlier this year, the government’s new standards came into force. These are expected to boost EV uptake.

    Could global tensions trigger faster action?

    If history is any guide, oil shocks lead to long-term change.

    The 1970s oil shocks triggered waves of energy reform.

    When global oil prices quadrupled in 1973–74, many nations were forced to reconsider where they got their energy. A few years later, the 1979 Iranian Revolution caused another major supply disruption, sending oil prices soaring and pushing much of the world into recession.

    Huge increases in oil prices drove people to look for alternatives during the 1970s oil shocks.
    Everett Collection/Shutterstock

    These shocks drove the formation of the International Energy Agency in 1974, spurred alternative energy investment and led to advances in fuel-efficiency standards.

    Much more recently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the European Union to face up to its reliance on Russian gas and find alternatives by importing gas from different countries and accelerating the clean energy shift.

    Clearly, energy shocks can be catalysts for long-term structural change in how we produce and consume energy.

    The new crisis could do the same, but only if policy catches up.

    If fuel prices shot up and stayed there, consumer behaviour would begin to shift. People would drive less and seek alternate forms of transport. Over time, more would look for better ways to get around.

    But without stronger support such as incentives, infrastructure and fuel security planning, shifting consumer preferences could be too slow to matter.

    A clean-energy future is more secure

    Cutting oil dependency through electrification isn’t just good for the climate. It’s also a hedge against future price shocks and supply disruptions.

    Transport is now Australia’s third-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions. Now that emissions are falling in the electricity sector, transport will be the highest emitting sector emissions source as soon as 2030.

    Building a cleaner transport system also means building a more resilient one. Charging EVs on locally produced renewable power cuts our exposure to global oil markets. So do biofuels, better public transport and smarter urban planning.

    Improving domestic energy resilience isn’t just about climate targets. It’s about economic stability and national security. Clean local energy sources reduce vulnerability to events beyond our control.

    What can we learn from China?

    China offers a compelling case study. The nation of 1.4 billion faces real oil security challenges. In response, Beijing has spent the past decade building a domestic clean energy ecosystem to reduce oil dependency and cut emissions.

    This is now bearing fruit. Last year, China’s oil imports had the first sustained fall in nearly two decades. Crude oil imports fell 1.5%, while oil refinery activity also fell due to lower demand.

    China’s rapid uptake of EVs has clear energy security benefits.
    pim pic/Shutterstock

    China’s green energy transition was driven by coordinated policy, industrial investment and public support for clean transport.

    China’s rapid shift to EVs and clean energy shows how long-term planning and targeted investment can pay off on climate and energy security.

    What we do next matters

    The rolling crises of 2025 present Australian policymakers a rare alignment of interests. What’s good for the climate, for consumers and for national security may now be the same thing.

    Real change will require more than sustained high petrol prices. It demands political will, targeted investment and a long-term vision for clean, resilient transport.

    Doing nothing has a real cost – not just in what we pay at the service station, but in how vulnerable we remain to events a long way away.

    Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Australia Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, and Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts.

    – ref. Oil shocks in the 1970s drove rapid changes in transport. It could happen again if Middle East tensions continue – https://theconversation.com/oil-shocks-in-the-1970s-drove-rapid-changes-in-transport-it-could-happen-again-if-middle-east-tensions-continue-259670

    MIL OSI Analysis –

    June 27, 2025
  • MIL-OSI: Increasing Adoption of Drones in Commercial Sectors Leading to a Revolution in Big Data Cloud Services

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    PALM BEACH, Fla., June 26, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — FN Media Group News Commentary – The increasing adoption of drones in commercial sectors is leading to a revolution in big data cloud services. Launching a drone to capture images is the preliminary step in the drone information acquisition process. The captured images then require correction, calibration, processing, storage, and efficient evaluation. The increasing need to evaluate imagery is a key factor driving the adoption of drone imagery software and cloud-based applications, which possess the ability to upload, share, store, and process aerial images. Moreover, there has been a steep increase in the use of cloud-based in-memory computing platform amongst businesses as it accelerates analytics, processes, and predictive capabilities. The global drone data service market size is expected to reach USD 15.05 billion by 2030, expanding at a CAGR of 39.0% through 2030, according to a new report by Grand View Research, Inc. The growth can be attributed to the growing usage of information acquired by drones in operational and big data analytics. The increasing need for UAV imagery analysis is presumed to impact the global drone imagery processing software industry positively and add a new horizon in imagery storage technologies. The report said: “By gathering information on a larger scale, service providers can now process unprecedented levels of detailed information and turn it into actionable information. UAV companies, such as PrecisionHawk, are transforming their business processes to enhance their focus on drone data processing rather than UAV manufacturing.” Active Companies in the markets today include ZenaTech, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZENA), Draganfly Inc. (NASDAQ: DPRO), Safe Pro Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SPAI), Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (NYSE: TDY), and AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc. (NYSE: UAVS).

    The article continued: The global drone data service market size is expected to reach USD 15.05 billion by 2030, expanding at a CAGR of 39.0% from 2023 to 2030, according to a new report by Grand View Research, Inc. The growth can be attributed to the growing usage of information acquired by drones in operational and big data analytics. The increasing need for UAV imagery analysis is presumed to impact the global drone imagery processing software industry positively and add a new horizon in imagery storage technologies. The increasing adoption of drones in commercial sectors is leading to a revolution in big data cloud services. Launching a drone to capture images is the preliminary step in the drone information acquisition process. The captured images then require correction, calibration, processing, storage, and efficient evaluation.

    ZenaTech (NASDAQ:ZENA) Signs Offer to Acquire North Carolina Land Surveying Company to Expand State Operations and Government Customers – ZenaTech, Inc. (FSE: 49Q) (BMV: ZENA) (“ZenaTech”), a technology company specializing in AI (Artificial Intelligence) drone, Drone as a Service (DaaS), enterprise SaaS, announces it has signed an offer to acquire a well-established North Carolina-based land surveying company with a strong government customer base. The proposed acquisition expands operations in the state when combined with a previously announced proposed land survey acquisition with operations in North Carolina. With over three decades of success serving government agencies, municipal governments, construction companies, and real estate developers, this strategic acquisition would significantly advance the company’s regional market penetration as well as growth in the US Southeast.

    “This proposed acquisition aligns with our strategy to build a robust, scalable, national Drone as a Service business while empowering strong regional and local hubs and recurring revenue opportunities,” said Shaun Passley, Ph.D., ZenaTech CEO. “We plan to embed AI-powered drone technology into critical land survey workflows providing unparalleled speed and precision. Land surveys are a first step to innovating multiple legacy businesses and inefficient processes with our DaaS model and our drones.”

    The land survey company offers comprehensive services include boundary surveys, topographic and site planning surveys, ALTA (American Land Title Association) / ACSM (American Congress on Surveying and Mapping) surveys, construction staking, and other essential survey solutions for permitting, financing, and construction across city, county, and commercial sectors.

    ZenaTech’s Drone as a Service (DaaS) business model offers both business and government customers reduced costs and convenience to utilize drones to streamline legacy processes and manual tasks such as inspections, surveying, maintenance, precision agriculture and inventory management , there is no need to purchase drone hardware and software, find a drone pilot, manage maintenance and operation, or acquire regulatory approvals. The model also offers scalability to use more often or less often based on business needs and utilizes ZenaDrone’s multifunction AI autonomous drones.

    The company has closed five acquisitions across the US to date as part of its DaaS business model and strategy and has announced it plans to complete 20 more acquisitions in the next 12 months. Continued… Read this full release by visiting: https://www.financialnewsmedia.com/news-zena/

    Other recent developments in the markets include:

    TB2 Aerospace LLC, in collaboration with Draganfly Inc. (NASDAQ: DPRO), a drone solutions, and systems developer, recently said it is proud to announce the successful deployment and performance of the Drone Recharging Operational Payload System (DROPS) during the U.S. Army’s Sustainment Modernization Experiment 2025 (SMEX25).

    Throughout SMEX25’s week-long field exercises, the DROPS system, integrated with Draganfly’s Commander 3XL, achieved a 100% success rate in autonomously deploying, recovering, and recharging TB2’s tactical resupply pods. The event provided an opportunity to validate real-world operational performance in austere and high-demand scenarios, drawing praise from defence evaluators and technology observers alike.

    “The successful deployment of DROPS at SMEX25 underscores our commitment to advancing autonomous logistics solutions,” said Hank Scott, CEO of TB2 Aerospace. “Our system’s performance in a live operational environment validates its potential to revolutionize military tactical resupply and contested logistics.”

    Safe Pro Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SPAI), a leader in AI-powered security solutions, is honored to recently be featured in a recent investigative piece by Grist Magazine, titled “How 3 Years of War Have Ravaged Ukraine’s Forests, and the People Who Depend on Them.”

    Safe Pro AI is helping lead a critical technological response to one of the war’s deadliest and most enduring legacies: land mines and unexploded ordnance (UXO). Utilizing AI and drone-based remote sensing, Safe Pro is working alongside humanitarian organizations and government partners to rapidly detect, map, and facilitate the safer and more efficient removal of UXO. This technology can be especially valuable in areas where land mines have triggered catastrophic wildfires, endangering both people and the environment. According to a report published by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Ukraine has experienced profound socio-economic disruption due to the conflict’s impact on key sectors including timber production with losses amounting to approximately €447.73 million. The primary damages involve the destruction of infrastructure, equipment, and substantial harm to protected natural areas, estimated at over €2.3 billion. Restoring this potential will require considerable effort and resources.

    Teledyne FLIR Defense, part of Teledyne Technologies Incorporated (NYSE: TDY) recently announced that its Black Hornet® 4 Personal Reconnaissance System has successfully completed the required NDAA and cyber security verification process and been approved for the Blue UAS List with an Authority to Operate.

    Led by the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), Blue UAS vets and verifies commercial drone technology for the Department of Defense and U.S. government. The Blue UAS List gives users access to a wide range of drone systems that can meet their diverse needs. In February, Teledyne FLIR announced that Black Hornet 4 was selected by DoD operators from among more than 35 uncrewed aerial system (UAS) products, all rigorously tested during DIU’s ‘Blue UAS Refresh’ event.

    “We are honored to see Black Hornet 4 added to the Blue UAS List, knowing that more operators across our military and federal government will be able to benefit from this one-of-a-kind drone and its distinct capabilities,” said Dr. JihFen Lei, president of Teledyne FLIR Defense. “DIU is filling a critical national need in meeting mission requirements by executing a more expansive Blue UAS program, and we have valued our partnership with them throughout the verification process.”

    AgEagle Aerial Systems Inc. (NYSE: UAVS), a leading provider of advanced drone and aerial imaging solutions, recently announced the sale of two additional eBee X drones to South Korea, expanding the country’s installed base of AgEagle’s eBee drones to more than 100 units. This milestone strengthens AgEagle’s strategic partnership with South Korea and reinforces its position as a leader in the Asia-Pacific drone market.

    The eBee X, AgEagle’s flagship fixed-wing mapping drone, is engineered for high-precision geospatial data collection and is ideally suited for applications including surveying, mapping, and photogrammetry. This latest sale builds on a well-established fleet, further strengthening AgEagle’s reputation as a trusted provider of cutting-edge unmanned aerial systems.

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    The MIL Network –

    June 27, 2025
  • MIL-OSI China: China firmly opposes NATO using China as an excuse to “expand eastward into Asia-Pacific”: Defense Spokesperson 2025-06-26 “We firmly oppose NATO using China as an excuse to ‘expand eastward into the Asia-Pacific’ and urge NATO to reflect on its own behaviors, change course, and contribute more to global security and stability,” said Chinese Defense Spokesperson Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang at a regular press conference on Thursday.

    Source: People’s Republic of China – Ministry of National Defense

      BEIJING, June 26 — “We firmly oppose NATO using China as an excuse to ‘expand eastward into the Asia-Pacific’ and urge NATO to reflect on its own behaviors, change course, and contribute more to global security and stability,” said Chinese Defense Spokesperson Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang at a regular press conference on Thursday.

      According to reports, NATO held its summit in The Hague from June 24 to 25, accusing China of “providing Russia with key support during the Russia-Ukraine conflict”, and expressing concerns over the South China Sea, the East China Sea and the Taiwan question. And, NATO Secretary General recently stated that China is significantly strengthening its military capabilities, building the world’s largest navy, and expanding its nuclear arsenal. Therefore, NATO should strengthen its partnership with “Indo-Pacific” countries to deal with the military challenges posed by China.

      When being asked to share comment, Senior Colonel Zhang Xiaogang said that China adheres to the path of peaceful development, and is firmly committed to a national defense policy that is defensive in nature and that China’s military development is purely aimed at safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests, as well as maintaining world peace and stability. “China-Russia cooperation does not target at any third party, nor will it be interfered by any third party,” stressed the spokesperson.

      When talking about NATO, the spokesperson pointed out that as a product of the Cold War and the largest military bloc in the world, NATO stirs up troubles and provokes conflicts and wars in various regions, making itself a true war machine. Moreover, in recent years, NATO has overstretched its geographic boundary stipulated by its own Treaty, and ill-expanded its power and authority, arousing high vigilance among regional countries.

      “We firmly oppose NATO using China as an excuse to ‘expand eastward into the Asia-Pacific’ and urge NATO to reflect on its own behaviors, change course, and contribute more to global security and stability,” stressed the spokesperson at the end of his comment.

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    MIL OSI China News –

    June 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Europe: Press release – EP President Metsola to EU leaders: “Peace may be difficult, but it is not impossible”

    Source: European Parliament 3

    Speaking to EU leaders, Parliament President Metsola said that in a volatile world, Europe must do more for its security.

    On the Middle East, President Metsola said: “What we are witnessing between Israel and Iran, and its potential spill over effects, is a litmus test for us all. The recent ceasefire deal marks a hopeful step forward.” She also stressed that: “Iran cannot acquire a nuclear bomb. That is a threat not just to the region, but to the world.” With regards to Gaza, she said that work for a ceasefire must continue, calling “for the immediate release of all hostages, an end to the terror, and for humanitarian aid to reach those who so desperately need it. Peace may be difficult, but it is not impossible.”

    On Ukraine, she underlined that the EU’s support must remain strong, including support for Ukraine’s future membership: “Ukraine and Moldova have already met the conditions to open the initial set of negotiations – the so-called ‘fundamentals’ cluster. The ball is now in our court. We need to maintain momentum.” On defence, the President referred to NATO’s agreement of upping defence spending targets to 5% and emphasised the that the European Parliament is doing its part by having acted fast on the Common Procurement Act and the Act in Support of Ammunition Production. “The same sense of urgency is what will continue to guide us as we look to finalise the recent Defence Omnibus package by the end of the year. Our processes are reformed and fast,” she said.

    On simplification, she stressed that Europe must deliver and here too, the European Parliament is moving fast having adopted the ‘Stop-the-clock’ mechanism and suspended penalties on the automotive sector. “Processes that used to take 9 months, now can take just a few hours.” But she also warned that “If Europe is to be faster, smarter, and more SME-friendly, we need to go beyond cosmetic changes.”

    On maternity rights, the President informed EU leaders that the European Parliament will table a targeted, narrow and surgical amendment to the EU Electoral Act to allow Members of European Parliament who are pregnant or who have just given birth to delegate their vote. She encouraged EU leaders to support this saying: “No democracy should ever penalise elected representatives for choosing to start a family. Representation should never come at the cost of parenthood.

    Find here the full speech

    MIL OSI Europe News –

    June 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Europe: Press release – EP President Metsola to EU leaders: “Peace may be difficult, but it is not impossible”

    Source: European Parliament 3

    Speaking to EU leaders, Parliament President Metsola said that in a volatile world, Europe must do more for its security.

    On the Middle East, President Metsola said: “What we are witnessing between Israel and Iran, and its potential spill over effects, is a litmus test for us all. The recent ceasefire deal marks a hopeful step forward.” She also stressed that: “Iran cannot acquire a nuclear bomb. That is a threat not just to the region, but to the world.” With regards to Gaza, she said that work for a ceasefire must continue, calling “for the immediate release of all hostages, an end to the terror, and for humanitarian aid to reach those who so desperately need it. Peace may be difficult, but it is not impossible.”

    On Ukraine, she underlined that the EU’s support must remain strong, including support for Ukraine’s future membership: “Ukraine and Moldova have already met the conditions to open the initial set of negotiations – the so-called ‘fundamentals’ cluster. The ball is now in our court. We need to maintain momentum.” On defence, the President referred to NATO’s agreement of upping defence spending targets to 5% and emphasised the that the European Parliament is doing its part by having acted fast on the Common Procurement Act and the Act in Support of Ammunition Production. “The same sense of urgency is what will continue to guide us as we look to finalise the recent Defence Omnibus package by the end of the year. Our processes are reformed and fast,” she said.

    On simplification, she stressed that Europe must deliver and here too, the European Parliament is moving fast having adopted the ‘Stop-the-clock’ mechanism and suspended penalties on the automotive sector. “Processes that used to take 9 months, now can take just a few hours.” But she also warned that “If Europe is to be faster, smarter, and more SME-friendly, we need to go beyond cosmetic changes.”

    On maternity rights, the President informed EU leaders that the European Parliament will table a targeted, narrow and surgical amendment to the EU Electoral Act to allow Members of European Parliament who are pregnant or who have just given birth to delegate their vote. She encouraged EU leaders to support this saying: “No democracy should ever penalise elected representatives for choosing to start a family. Representation should never come at the cost of parenthood.

    Find here the full speech

    MIL OSI Europe News –

    June 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Analysis: How Nato summit shows Europe and US no longer have a common enemy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew Corbett, Senior Lecturer in Defence Studies, King’s College London

    Mark Rutte had an unenviable task at the Hague summit this week. The Nato secretary-general had to work with diverging American and European views of current security threats. After Rutte made extraordinary efforts at highly deferential, overt flattery of Donald Trump to secure crucial outcomes for the alliance, he seems to have succeeded for now.

    But what this meeting and the run-up has made increasingly clear is that the US and Europe no longer perceive themselves as having a single common enemy. Nato was established in 1949 as a defensive alliance against the acknowledged threat from the USSR. This defined the alliance through the cold war until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Since Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014, Nato has focused on Moscow as the major threat to international peace. But the increasingly bellicose China is demanding more attention from the US.

    There are some symbolic moves that signal how things are changing. Every Nato summit declaration since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has used the same form of words: “We adhere to international law and to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and are committed to upholding the rules-based international order.”

    The declaration published during the Hague summit on June 25 conspicuously does not mention either. Indeed, in a departure from recent declarations, the five paragraphs of the Hague summit declaration are brutally short and focused entirely on portraying the alliance solely in terms of military capability and economic investment to sustain that. No mention of international law and order this time.

    This appears to be a carefully orchestrated output of a deliberately shortened summit designed to contain Trump’s unpredictable interventions. This also seems symptomatic of a widening division between the American strategic trajectory and the security interests perceived by Canada and the European members of Nato.

    That this declaration was so short, and so focused on such a narrow range of issues suggests there were unusually entrenched differences that could not be surmounted.

    Since the onslaught of the full Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Nato allies have been united in their criticism of Russia and support for Ukraine; until now.

    Since January, the Trump administration has not authorised any military aid to Ukraine and significantly reduced material support to Ukraine and criticism of Russia. Trump has sought to end the war rapidly on terms effectively capitulating to Russian aggression; his proposal suggests recognising Russia’s control over Crimea and de facto control over some other occupied territories (Luhansk, parts of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Kherson) He has also suggested Ukraine would not join Nato but might receive security guarantees and the right to join the EU.

    Meanwhile, European allies have sought to fund and support Ukraine’s defensive efforts, increasing aid and military support, and continuing to ramp up sanctions.

    Another sign of the differing priorities of Europe and Canada v the US, was the decision by Pete Hegseth, US secretary of defense, to step back from leadership of the Ukraine defence contact group, an ad-hoc coalition of states across the world providing military support to Ukraine. Hegseth also symbolically failed to attend the group’s pre-summit meeting in June.

    Trump has long been adamant that Nato members should meet their 2014 commitment to spend 2% of their GDP on defence, and Rutte recognised that. In 2018, Trump suggested that this should be increased to 4 or 5% but this was dismissed as unreasonable. Now, in a decision which indicates increasing concern about both Russia as a threat and US support, Nato members (except for Spain) have agreed to increase spending to 5% of GDP on defence over the next 10 years.

    Donald Trump gives a press conference after the Nato summit.

    Nato’s article 3 requires states to maintain and develop their capacity to resist attack. However, since 2022, it has become increasingly apparent that many Nato members are unprepared for any major military engagement. At the same time, they are increasingly feeling that Russia is more of a threat on their doorsteps. There has been recognition, particularly among the Baltic states, Germany, France and the UK that they need to increase their military spending and preparedness.

    For the US to focus more on China, US forces will shift a greater percentage of the US Navy to the Pacific. It will also assign its most capable new ships and aircraft to the region and increase general presence operations, training and developmental exercises, and engagement and cooperation with allied and other navies in the western Pacific. To do this US forces will need to reduce commitments in Europe, and European allies must replace those capabilities in order to sustain deterrence against Russia.

    The bedrock of the Nato treaty, article 5, is commonly paraphrased as “an attack on one is an attack on all”. On his way to the Hague summit, Trump seemed unsure about the US commitment to Nato. Asked to clarify this at the summit, he stated: “I stand with it [Article 5]. That’s why I’m here. If I didn’t stand with it, I wouldn’t be here.”

    Lord Ismay, the first secretary-general of Nato, famously (if apocryphally) suggested that the purpose of the alliance was to keep the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down. Germany is now an integral part of Nato, and the Americans are in, if distracted. But there are cracks, and Rutte will have his hands full managing Trump’s declining interest in protecting Europe if he is to keep the Russians at bay.

    Andrew Corbett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Nato summit shows Europe and US no longer have a common enemy – https://theconversation.com/how-nato-summit-shows-europe-and-us-no-longer-have-a-common-enemy-259842

    MIL OSI Analysis –

    June 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Analysis: How Nato summit shows Europe and US no longer have a common enemy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew Corbett, Senior Lecturer in Defence Studies, King’s College London

    Mark Rutte had an unenviable task at the Hague summit this week. The Nato secretary-general had to work with diverging American and European views of current security threats. After Rutte made extraordinary efforts at highly deferential, overt flattery of Donald Trump to secure crucial outcomes for the alliance, he seems to have succeeded for now.

    But what this meeting and the run-up has made increasingly clear is that the US and Europe no longer perceive themselves as having a single common enemy. Nato was established in 1949 as a defensive alliance against the acknowledged threat from the USSR. This defined the alliance through the cold war until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Since Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014, Nato has focused on Moscow as the major threat to international peace. But the increasingly bellicose China is demanding more attention from the US.

    There are some symbolic moves that signal how things are changing. Every Nato summit declaration since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has used the same form of words: “We adhere to international law and to the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and are committed to upholding the rules-based international order.”

    The declaration published during the Hague summit on June 25 conspicuously does not mention either. Indeed, in a departure from recent declarations, the five paragraphs of the Hague summit declaration are brutally short and focused entirely on portraying the alliance solely in terms of military capability and economic investment to sustain that. No mention of international law and order this time.

    This appears to be a carefully orchestrated output of a deliberately shortened summit designed to contain Trump’s unpredictable interventions. This also seems symptomatic of a widening division between the American strategic trajectory and the security interests perceived by Canada and the European members of Nato.

    That this declaration was so short, and so focused on such a narrow range of issues suggests there were unusually entrenched differences that could not be surmounted.

    Since the onslaught of the full Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Nato allies have been united in their criticism of Russia and support for Ukraine; until now.

    Since January, the Trump administration has not authorised any military aid to Ukraine and significantly reduced material support to Ukraine and criticism of Russia. Trump has sought to end the war rapidly on terms effectively capitulating to Russian aggression; his proposal suggests recognising Russia’s control over Crimea and de facto control over some other occupied territories (Luhansk, parts of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Kherson) He has also suggested Ukraine would not join Nato but might receive security guarantees and the right to join the EU.

    Meanwhile, European allies have sought to fund and support Ukraine’s defensive efforts, increasing aid and military support, and continuing to ramp up sanctions.

    Another sign of the differing priorities of Europe and Canada v the US, was the decision by Pete Hegseth, US secretary of defense, to step back from leadership of the Ukraine defence contact group, an ad-hoc coalition of states across the world providing military support to Ukraine. Hegseth also symbolically failed to attend the group’s pre-summit meeting in June.

    Trump has long been adamant that Nato members should meet their 2014 commitment to spend 2% of their GDP on defence, and Rutte recognised that. In 2018, Trump suggested that this should be increased to 4 or 5% but this was dismissed as unreasonable. Now, in a decision which indicates increasing concern about both Russia as a threat and US support, Nato members (except for Spain) have agreed to increase spending to 5% of GDP on defence over the next 10 years.

    Donald Trump gives a press conference after the Nato summit.

    Nato’s article 3 requires states to maintain and develop their capacity to resist attack. However, since 2022, it has become increasingly apparent that many Nato members are unprepared for any major military engagement. At the same time, they are increasingly feeling that Russia is more of a threat on their doorsteps. There has been recognition, particularly among the Baltic states, Germany, France and the UK that they need to increase their military spending and preparedness.

    For the US to focus more on China, US forces will shift a greater percentage of the US Navy to the Pacific. It will also assign its most capable new ships and aircraft to the region and increase general presence operations, training and developmental exercises, and engagement and cooperation with allied and other navies in the western Pacific. To do this US forces will need to reduce commitments in Europe, and European allies must replace those capabilities in order to sustain deterrence against Russia.

    The bedrock of the Nato treaty, article 5, is commonly paraphrased as “an attack on one is an attack on all”. On his way to the Hague summit, Trump seemed unsure about the US commitment to Nato. Asked to clarify this at the summit, he stated: “I stand with it [Article 5]. That’s why I’m here. If I didn’t stand with it, I wouldn’t be here.”

    Lord Ismay, the first secretary-general of Nato, famously (if apocryphally) suggested that the purpose of the alliance was to keep the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down. Germany is now an integral part of Nato, and the Americans are in, if distracted. But there are cracks, and Rutte will have his hands full managing Trump’s declining interest in protecting Europe if he is to keep the Russians at bay.

    Andrew Corbett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Nato summit shows Europe and US no longer have a common enemy – https://theconversation.com/how-nato-summit-shows-europe-and-us-no-longer-have-a-common-enemy-259842

    MIL OSI Analysis –

    June 26, 2025
  • Global energy CO2 emissions reached record high last year, report says

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    Global carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector hit a record high for the fourth year running last year as fossil fuel use kept rising even as renewable energy reached a record high, the Energy Institute’s annual statistical review of world energy showed on Thursday.
     
    The report’s figures highlight the challenge of trying to wean the world economy off fossil fuels at a time when conflict in Ukraine has redrawn oil and gas flows from Russia and fighting in the Middle East raises concern about security of supplies.
     
    Last year was the hottest year on record, with global temperatures exceeding 1.5 C (34.7 F) above the pre-industrial era for the first time.
     
    The world saw a 2% annual rise in total energy supply in 2024, with all sources of energy such as oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydro and renewable energy registering increases, which last occurred in 2006, the report said.
     
    This led to carbon emissions increasing by around 1% in 2024 and exceeding the record level set the previous year at 40.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
    Of all the global fossil fuels, natural gas saw the biggest increase in generation, growing 2.5%. Meanwhile, coal grew by 1.2% to remain the largest source of generation globally, while oil growth was under 1%.
     
    Wind and solar energy expanded by 16% in 2024, nine times faster than total energy demand, the report showed.
     
    Industry body the Energy Institute, which comprises energy professionals across levels, together with consultancies KPMG and Kearney, took over from BP (BP.L), opens new tab last year to author the report.
     
    Analysts tracking progress have said the world is not on course to meet a global goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 despite record amounts being added.
     
    “Last year was another turning point for global energy, driven by rising geopolitical tensions,” Romain Debarre of consultancy Kearney, one of the authors of the report, said in a release.
     
    “COP28 set out a bold vision to triple global renewables by 2030, but progress is proving uneven and despite the rapid growth we have seen globally we are still not at the pace required,” said Wafa Jafri, a partner at KPMG.
     
    COP28 was the United Nations Climate Change Conference that took place in Dubai in 2023, at which countries signed a pact to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
     
    (Reuters)
    June 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Africa: G20 Sherpa meeting highlights global development challenges

    Source: South Africa News Agency

    South Africa’s Group of 20 (G20) Presidency convened its third Sherpa meeting this week, focusing on critical global challenges, including sustainable development and geopolitical tensions.

    Speaking to the media, South Africa’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Mathu Joyini, stressed the urgency of achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), noting that the G20 represents 85% of global GDP and has a crucial role in advancing the 2030 agenda.

    “We are now five years away from the date set for achieving the SDGs and this is worrisome,” the diplomat stated. 

    He said the 20 largest economies in the world, which come from various regions, have a significant role in fostering the development agenda. “The G20 has a responsibility to push hard during these remaining years.”

    He told journalists that Wednesday’s Sherpa meeting of the G20 at the Sun City Resort addressed complex geopolitical issues, with participants discussing conflicts ranging from the Democratic Republic of Congo to Gaza and Ukraine. 

    However, the approach focused on principles of achieving “just peace” rather than diving into specific conflict details.

    Joyini said South Africa outlined four key priorities for its Presidency, which include disaster resilience, debt sustainability, critical minerals, and the Just Energy Transition (JET). 

    The Ambassador, meanwhile, highlighted the importance of transforming Africa’s mineral extraction model. “We do not want raw materials to be just taken from Africa. We want African countries to have space for beneficiation and manufacturing.”

    The meeting also noted the absence of the United States, with officials expressing openness to continued engagement and emphasising the continuity of the G20 agenda.

    Joyini believed that the gathering signalled South Africa’s commitment to advancing Global South priorities and building on the legacies of previous presidencies from Indonesia, India, and Brazil. 

    Meanwhile, Joyini explained the continuity of priorities, such as the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty from Brazil. “Our task force on food security that we are creating is focusing on the regional level and at the global level.” – SAnews.gov.za
     

    MIL OSI Africa –

    June 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Europe: Press release – European Parliament Press Kit for the European Council of 26 – 27 June 2025

    Source: European Parliament

    European Parliament President Roberta Metsola will represent the European Parliament at the summit, where she will address the heads of state or government at 11.00 and hold a press conference after her speech.

    When: Press conference at around 11.45 on 26 June

    Where: European Council press room and via Parliament’s webstreaming or EbS.

    At their meeting in Brussels, the heads of state or government will focus on ways to bolster EU competitiveness. They will also discuss how the EU can continue supporting Kyiv against Russia’s aggression – with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, how to strengthen the EU’s defence capabilities, and the EU’s response to the escalation in the Middle East. Leaders will also discuss migration and the situation in the Western Balkans.

    Competitiveness

    In a resolution, adopted on Thursday 19 June in response to the European Commission’s Clean Industrial Deal plan, Parliament stresses the need to combine climate action with industrial competitiveness. It underscores the importance of the EU’s newly established industrial decarbonisation bank, which MEPs consider vital for scaling up investment in clean technologies. The resolution addresses the importance of regulatory simplification and the need to streamline permitting procedures to support the transition and innovation efforts of small businesses. MEPs also support the action plan for affordable energy and want measures to boost cross-border energy infrastructure and to complete the energy union.

    On 18 June, MEPs adopted a resolution highlighting the stabilising effect of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) at a time of significant economic uncertainty in Europe. They note that the RRF prevented the fragmentation of the EU internal market and promoted economic recovery in member states. MEPs are concerned that the short timeframe for the implementation of outstanding RRF funding poses challenges to the completion of key reforms, large-scale investments and innovative projects, as well as the 70% of milestones and targets that have still to be reached. They urge the Commission to set up new programmes, which should be flexible and reactive to changing circumstances and guarantee predictability. MEPs also demand an 18-month extension for ongoing mature projects.

    In a keynote speech at the event “Europe at the crossroads” on 13 May, Parliament President Roberta Metsola outlined her vision for a smarter, stronger and safer Europe. The President argued “the time of hypothetical crossroads is over. There is only one path left: forward and together”. She called for a different Europe, which is more realistic, more self-critical and supportive of its industries, with less regulation and more innovation. On the need to cut back regulation, she said: “Europe’s simplification agenda needs to signal the start of a new Europe and with the upcoming MFF, trigger an economic boom.”

    Further reading

    Clean Industrial Deal must marry industrial competitiveness with climate action

    National recovery plans should add to EU resilience and strategic autonomy

    Metsola calls to “re-launch Europe as a global power”

    MEPs call for a more competitive EU that respects social and labour standards

    Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine

    On 16 June, Parliament debated the human cost of Russia’s war against Ukraine and the urgent need to end Russian aggression, the situation of illegally detained civilians and prisoners of war, and the continued bombing of civilians. You can watch the debate here. Parliament ill vote on a resolution on 9 July.

    On 17 June, MEPs agreed to update the EU-Ukraine road transport agreement and extend it until the end of 2025, to continue facilitating the movement of goods in and out of the country. Concluded in June 2022, the agreement has facilitated the transport of vital goods such as fuel and humanitarian aid into Ukraine, and enabled Ukrainian exports such as grain, ore, and steel to reach the EU and beyond. Set to expire in June 2024, its application continued provisionally pending formal backing by MEPs and the EU Council of its extension until the end of 2025.

    On 22 May, MEPs backed increased tariffs on fertilisers and certain Russian and Belarusian agricultural goods, seeking to reduce EU dependency on those imports. Plenary has endorsed the Commission proposal to increase by 50% EU tariffs on agricultural products from Russia and Belarus that were not yet subject to extra customs duties. The aim is to reduce EU dependence on the two countries still further. Products targeted by the new tariffs include sugar, vinegar, flour and animal feed.

    In a resolution adopted on 8 May, MEPs strongly condemn Russia’s “genocidal strategy”, with the support of Belarus, designed to erase Ukrainian identity. The forced transfer and deportation of Ukrainian children, their illegal adoption, their assassination, and the forced Russification and militarisation must stop. Russia must report the identities and whereabouts of all deported Ukrainian children and ensure their well-being and safe and unconditional return. The Russian authorities must also, MEPs say, allow international organisations, such as the International Committee of the Red Cross, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and UNICEF, access to all deported Ukrainian children.

    On 8 May, MEPs voted to renew the suspension of import duties and quotas for certain imports from Ukraine, such as iron and steel, due to expire on 5 June 2025.With the adoption of the Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) Regulation, the EU liberalised trade with Ukraine by suspending trade defence measures on 4 June 2022. MEPs have now approved the proposed prolongation of these trade liberalisation measures, which focus steel, to provide Ukraine with vital export revenues

    On 7 May, Parliament discussed with Commission President von der Leyen and Polish Minister for EU Affairs Szłapka how the EU can contribute to achieving a just, sustainable, and comprehensive peace deal for Ukraine. The debate focussed on the EU’s political, financial and military support for Ukraine, and its role in efforts to secure a peace settlement that preserves Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and is based on international law.

    Further reading

    European Parliament backs extension of EU-Ukraine road transport agreement

    Parliament approves new tariffs on Russian and Belarussian agricultural goods

    Parliament backs extension of trade liberalisation measure for Ukrainian imports

    The EU must contribute to robust security guarantees for Ukraine

    Joint statement on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

    EP Conference of Presidents’ statement on EU support for Ukraine

    How the EU is supporting Ukraine

    EU stands with Ukraine


    European defence and security

    On 18 June, MEPs outlined their expectations for the 24 – 26 June NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, in a debate with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.

    On 24 April, the Committees on Industry, Research and Energy and Security and Defence have adopted their position on the proposed creation of a European defence industry programme (EDIP), designed to strengthen Europe’s defence industry, ramp up defence product manufacturing and provide more support for Ukraine. More specifically, MEPs backed measures to boost Europe’s defence technological and industrial base (EDTIB), to strengthen EU defence and integrate the EU defence industry. They want the new programme to focus on improving the supply of weapons, ammunition and other crisis-relevant products, boosting manufacturing capacities and ensuring their ramp-up, reducing lead times for production and delivery, and increasing stockpiles. MEPs and Council are now negotiating the final shape of the law.

    In a resolution adopted on 12 March, Parliament calls on the EU to act urgently and ensure its own security. This will mean, MEPs say, strengthening relationships with like-minded partners, and strongly diminishing reliance on non-EU countries. The EU needs “truly ground-breaking efforts” and actions “close to those of wartime”, say MEPs, who welcomed the recently tabled ReArm plan. To achieve peace and stability in Europe, the EU must support Ukraine and become more resilient itself, MEPs argue. The resolution says “Europe is today facing the most profound military threat to its territorial integrity since the end of the Cold War”. It calls on member states, international partners, and NATO allies to lift all restrictions on the use of Western weapons systems delivered to Ukraine against military targets on Russian territory.

    Further reading

    MEPs push for a more ambitious European defence industry programme

    MEPs urge the EU to ensure its own security

    “We cannot afford to depend on others to keep us safe”, Metsola tells EU leaders

    “Europe must be responsible for its own security”, Metsola tells EU leaders

    MEPs call on Europe to strengthen its defence capacity

    Rutte to MEPs: “We are safe now, we might not be safe in five years”


    Middle East

    On 17 June, MEPs and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas debated the situation in the Middle East. The debate focussed on the risk of further instability in the Middle East following the Israel-Iran military escalation, the review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

    On 17 June, the King of Jordan, His Majesty Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein, addressed MEPs at a formal sitting in Strasbourg. Welcoming King Abdullah II of Jordan to the hemicycle, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said: “The European Parliament appreciates Jordan’s critical efforts in reducing regional tensions, in pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza and for the return of hostages whilst also facilitating so much urgently needed humanitarian aid, as well as for the unwavering support for Palestinian and Syrian refugees and a two-State solution as a path to lasting peace.”

    The King outlined two essential areas for action: first, supporting development, because a thriving Middle East creates opportunities that benefit us all; and second, strong, coordinated action to ensure global security. “Our mutual security won’t be assured until our global community acts, not only to end the three-year war in Ukraine, but also the world’s longest and most destructive flashpoint, the eight-decade-long Palestinian-Israeli conflict.” King Abdullah II added: “Palestinians, like all people, deserve the rights to freedom, sovereignty, and, yes, statehood (…) The path to peace has been walked before. It can be again, if we have the courage to choose it, and the will to walk it together.”

    On 21 May, Parliament discussed the EU’s response to the Israeli government’s plan to seize the Gaza Strip, ensuring effective humanitarian support and the liberation of hostages.

    Further reading

    King Abdullah II of Jordan: “A shameful version of humanity is unfolding in Gaza”

    The EU must support the political transition and reconstruction of Syria


    Western Balkans

    In a vote on 24 June, the Foreign Affairs Committee backed North Macedonia’s EU path and called for bold reforms. Skopje must introduce constitutional changes, strengthen rule of law and fight corruption, MEPs say. The report underlines that EU accession is ultimately a matter of political will—both in enacting reforms and adopting constitutional amendments. MEPs call on all political parties in North Macedonia to engage in constructive dialogue to reach the required consensus, which would strengthen the country’s multi-ethnic character and accelerate EU progress.

    In two reports adopted on 18 June, MEPs welcomed Montenegro´s objective to join the EU in 2028 and praised Moldova’s EU membership efforts. Parliament is calling for political stability in Montenegro and substantial progress regarding electoral and judicial reforms as well as the fight against organised crime and corruption. MEPs stress that Montenegro remains the leading candidate in the EU enlargement process and point to the overwhelming support of its citizens and the majority of political actors for joining the EU in 2028. Parliament welcomes the country’s full alignment with the EU’s common foreign and security policy, including EU sanctions against Russia, and commends Montenegro for its support for the international rules-based order at the United Nations.

    Praising Moldova’s exemplary commitment to advancing its progress towards EU membership, Parliament recognises that EU-Moldova relations have entered a new phase. Cooperation has intensified alongside sustained efforts by the government in Chișinău to align Moldova’s laws with those of the EU (the so-called “EU acquis”). Despite significant internal and external challenges, such as the effects of Russia’s continuing war against neighbouring Ukraine and Moscow’s interference in Moldova’s democratic processes, MEPs are encouraged by the Moldovan government’s progress on meeting the EU’s enlargement requirements and the country’s ambition to open negotiations on more enlargement-related issues.

    In a report adopted on 4 June, the Foreign Affairs Committee has praised Albania’s steadfast commitment to EU accession. MEPs highlight Albania’s broad political consensus and strong public support for joining the EU, alongside full alignment with the EU’s foreign and security policy. While welcoming Albania’s aim to complete accession talks by 2027 and the progress already made, MEPs stress the urgent need to intensify reforms. Key priorities include strengthening judicial independence, combating corruption and organised crime, and protecting fundamental rights. Enhancing media pluralism and transparency remains crucial to building public trust. Plenary will vote on the report on 9 July.

    The Foreign Affairs Committee called urgently for reform and unity in Bosnia and Herzegovina to advance EU accession and tackle corruption and division, in a report adopted on 4 June. MEPs reaffirm their strong support for BiH’s EU accession bid, emphasising a merit-based process aligned with the Copenhagen criteria and grounded in the country’s unity, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and in equality among all citizens. Welcoming the European Council’s decision to open accession negotiations with BiH amid the changing geopolitical landscape following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the committee acknowledged key reforms but expressed concern over stalled progress and weak implementation. The vote in plenary is scheduled for 9 July.

    On 7 May, Parliament adopted two resolutions, saying Kosovo needs to accelerate its EU-related reforms and that Serbia must do more to protect the rule of law and media freedom and to fight corruption.

    Kosovo has made notable strides in its electoral reforms, economic resilience, and the protection of fundamental rights, say MEPs. However, challenges remain regarding judicial reforms, media freedom, public administration efficiency, and the digitalisation of public services. Continued commitment to comprehensive reforms and inclusive governance is essential for Kosovo to make progress on its European integration pathway, they stress.

    Despite some progress in negotiations, Serbia still has major hurdles to overcome, according to MEPs. Belgrade needs to improve its internal political dialogue, protect the rule of law, and make anti-corruption reforms. It also has to work on reaching a comprehensive normalisation agreement with Kosovo, and fully align with EU foreign policy. Parliament calls on Serbia’s authorities to ensure the independence of key institutions, including media regulators such as the country’s Regulatory Authority for Electronic Media.

    Further reading

    European Parliament backs North Macedonia’s EU path, calls for bold reforms

    Montenegro and Moldova: MEPs applaud EU membership progress

    MEPs call on Albania to accelerate reforms and strengthen democratic institutions

    Support for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s EU accession amid urgent calls for reform

    Parliament encourages Kosovo and Serbia to advance their EU accession reforms


    Migration

    On 18 June, Civil Liberties Committee MEPs backed proposals to give Europol and EU authorities more tools to fight migrant-smuggling and human trafficking. The proposed law would give the EU’s police agency Europol new tools to combat and investigate migrant-smuggling and human trafficking by coordinating the actions of EU national authorities. A European Centre Against Migrant Smuggling (ECAMS) would be formally established within Europol to support cross-border investigations. . Parliament and Council are now negotiating on the final shape of the law.

    On 19 May, Parliament and Council reached an agreement on gradually rolling out the Entry-Exit System (EES) at the EU’s external borders. Once operational, the system will register the data, including biometric data such as facial images and fingerprints, of third‑country nationals entering and leaving the Schengen area on short‑stay visas. The aim is to improve security, speed up the border check process, and reduce queues. The idea behind the gradual implementation over 180 days is to prevent a simultaneous launch in all countries from compromising the system. During the roll-out period, the launch could be temporarily suspended if waiting times become too long or there are technical issues. The vote in plenary will take place on 8 July.

    On 15 January, the Working Group on Asylum-Implementation of the Pact/CEAS (Common European Asylum System), formed by MEPs of all EP political groups, started to monitor the implementation of the EU Pact on Asylum and Migration. Chaired by Birgit Sippel (S&D, Germany), the Working Group will focus on scrutinising and monitoring the Common European Asylum System and the implementation of the Pact on Asylum and Migration.

    Further reading

    Migrant-smuggling: new resources and a stronger role for Europol

    Border security: agreement on gradual roll-out of Entry-Exit System

    MEPs kick off scrutiny work of the Asylum and Migration Pact

    MIL OSI Europe News –

    June 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Security: NATO concludes historic Summit in The Hague

    Source: NATO

    On Wednesday (25 June 2025), NATO concluded a historic Summit in The Hague. Allies reached a decision to invest 5% of GDP in defence – laying the foundation for a strong, united NATO in the years to come – and reaffirming their continued support to Ukraine.

    Leaders came together for a series of events around the NATO Summit in The Hague on 24-25 June. 

    On Tuesday, the Secretary General spoke at the NATO Public Forum – a conference that lasted two days and provided in-person and online audiences with an opportunity to dive into the decisions being made at the Summit, as well as other topics on which NATO is engaged. NATO also hosted a Summit Defence Industry Forum on the 24th that brought together political and military leaders, as well as industry, to advance efforts to boost defence industrial production across the Alliance. 

    On Tuesday evening, the Dutch King Willem-Alexander and Queen Maxima hosted a social dinner for the leaders gathered for the Summit at the historic Huis ten Bosch. In parallel, NATO Defence Ministers held a working dinner, as did NATO Foreign Ministers who met, along with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, for a working dinner of the NATO-Ukraine Council.

    At the formal session of NATO Heads of State and Government on Wednesday, Allied leaders adopted a summit declaration that set a new benchmark for defence investment, underlined the importance of ramping up defence industrial production, and affirmed continued support for Ukraine. With The Hague Defence Investment Plan outlined in the statement, Allies commit to investing 5% of GDP in defence – including 3.5% of GDP on core defence requirements and 1.5% on defence- and security-related investments like infrastructure and industry. This marks a major uplift from the previous benchmark of 2% of GDP.

    “Together, Allies have laid the foundations for a stronger, fairer, more lethal NATO,” the Secretary General stated in a closing press conference. “These decisions will have a profound impact on our ability to do what NATO was founded to do – deter and defend.” Highlighting the challenges to Allied security, the Secretary General underscored, “whether from Russia or terrorism, cyberattacks, sabotage or strategic competition – this Alliance is and will remain ready, willing and able to defend every inch of Allied territory,” explaining that the new pledge would “ensure that our one billion people can continue to live in freedom and security.”

    There were also a number of additional meetings held at the NATO Summit including a meeting of the NATO Secretary General, the President of Ukraine, and the Presidents of the European Council and European Commission; a meeting of the NATO Secretary General, the President of Ukraine, the President of France, the German Chancellor, and the Prime Ministers of Italy, Poland, and the United Kingdom; and a meeting between the NATO Secretary General and NATO’s Indo-Pacific partners. 

    The next NATO Summit is planned for 2026 in Türkiye.

    MIL Security OSI –

    June 26, 2025
  • North Korea may send more troops to Russia in July or August for Ukraine war, Seoul says

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    North Korea may deploy additional troops to Russia to fight in the war against Ukraine in July or August and Pyongyang is continuing to supply arms to Russia, South Korean lawmakers said on Thursday, citing a briefing by the intelligence agency.

    The National Intelligence Service (NIS) believes Russia may be readying to mount a large-scale assault against Ukraine in July or August, South Korean member of parliament Lee Seong-kweun told reporters after the closed-door briefing.

    “The timing of the additional deployment is that it could be as early as July or August,” Lee said, adding the agency cited a new round-up of troops for the dispatch by North Korea and a recent visit to Pyongyang by a top Russian presidential security official as grounds for its assessment.

    In return for North Korea sending artillery ammunition and missiles to Russia, Pyongyang is likely receiving technical advice on satellite launches and missile guidance systems, Lee said, citing the NIS briefing.

    After months of silence, both North Korea and Russia have disclosed the deployment of North Korean troops and the role they played in Moscow’s offensive against Ukraine to reclaim the Kursk region.

    The two countries said the cooperation is based on the treaty signed by their leaders in June last year that includes a mutual defense pact.

    (Reuters)

    June 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Russia: Norway: Staff Concluding Statement for the 2025 Article IV Consultation Mission

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    June 26, 2025

    A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.

    The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.

    Norway’s economy has shown resilience amid global uncertainty, supported by strong fiscal buffers and credible policy frameworks. Mainland real GDP growth is forecast to increase to 1.5 percent in 2025 (from 0.6 percent in 2024) and is projected to remain steady at around that level over the medium term. The labor market has held firm. Despite contractionary monetary policy, inflation remains above target; bringing inflation back to target is the most pressing near-term policy priority. The financial system is sound, and buffers are robust, but systemic vulnerabilities remain elevated, reflecting high levels of household debt and concentrated exposures to real estate. At the same time, macroprudential policy settings have been eased with the increase in the loan-to-value limit for mortgages earlier this year. Risks to the growth outlook are to the downside, driven by rising global policy and trade uncertainty; risks to the inflation outlook are balanced. The IMF staff’s main policy recommendations are: i) maintain the restrictive monetary policy stance until there is additional evidence that the recent easing of inflation has fully solidified; ii) do not ease macroprudential policy settings further, as financial stability risks could increase if downside risks to growth or upside risks to inflation materialize; iii) move towards a broadly neutral fiscal stance to enhance the coherence of the macroeconomic policy mix and lower the burden on monetary policy; and iv) continue advancing structural reforms aimed at increasing labor supply and inclusion.

    Context

    Norway’s economy has remained resilient despite tight financial conditions and ongoing global uncertainty. GDP continued to expand moderately last year, supported by high employment and supportive fiscal policy. Inflation has declined, though it remains above target, and financial stability risks, while elevated due to high household debt levels and concentrated exposures to the real estate sector, remain contained.

    Recent developments, outlook, and risks

    Economic activity strengthened in 2024. Overall real GDP grew by 2.1 percent, driven by record-high natural gas extraction. Mainland GDP expanded by 0.6 percent, primarily due to increased public spending, as activity in the construction and fishing sectors contracted, reflecting high borrowing costs and sector-specific challenges. Employment and hours worked increased, although the unemployment rate edged up to 4 percent. National accounts data and high frequency survey indicators point to resilient activity in the first part of 2025. Mainland GDP growth is forecast to rise to 1.5 percent in 2025, supported by easing financial conditions, an expansionary fiscal stance, and recovering real incomes. Over the medium-term, mainland GDP growth is expected to remain around its potential (1.5 percent).

    Inflation, despite a steady decline, remains above target. Services inflation and wage pressures have contributed to keeping inflation above the 2 percent target. However, recent developments point to slower-than-expected momentum in both headline and core inflation, partly due to one-off and base effects. Fiscal measures—such as those to stabilize electricity prices and reduce childcare costs—could lower inflation in the second half of the year. Under staff’s baseline scenario, headline and core inflation will fall to 2.2 and 2.6 percent by end-2025 and return to target by 2027. After holding the policy rate steady at 4.5 percent from January 2024, Norges Bank began normalizing monetary policy by lowering the rate to 4.25 percent in June and signaled that the policy rate will be reduced further in the course of 2025.

    The fiscal stance has become increasingly expansionary. While additional support to Ukraine in the revised budget is not expected to provide stimulus to the economy, overall, the 2025 budget implies a significant fiscal impulse. The structural non-oil deficit is projected to reach about 13 percent of trend mainland GDP, even as withdrawals from the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) are expected to remain below the fiscal rule’s 3 percent guideline (at around 2.7 percent of the GPFG’s 2024 market value). The government has also signaled alignment with NATO discussions to progressively increase defense spending toward 5 percent of GDP over the medium term.

    Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside, while inflation risks are balanced. On growth, global tensions, including higher trade tariffs, could weigh on exports and investment, and continued tight financial conditions could further pressure highly indebted households and firms at a time when financial risks are elevated. Over the longer term, demographic headwinds and the expected structural erosion of oil-related revenues will weigh on economic resilience. Inflation could take longer to converge to target if domestic demand recovers faster than expected or higher oil prices put pressure on headline inflation. By contrast, further currency appreciation and higher productivity gains (e.g., from a faster-than-anticipated uptake of AI or automation) could bring inflation back to target more rapidly.   

    Policy recommendations

    Norges Bank should proceed cautiously with monetary policy normalization, ensuring there is further evidence that underlying inflation is firmly on a path back to target. Under staff’s baseline scenario, the current restrictive monetary policy is broadly appropriate to bring core inflation to target by 2027, even as medium-term inflation expectations and underlying inflation remain above target. The output gap is broadly closed, and inflation risks are balanced. While recent inflation developments are encouraging, further evidence of a decline in the trend of underlying inflation is needed to continue with the normalization of monetary policy.

    Norway’s strong monetary policy framework has served the economy well. After the adoption of inflation targeting in 2001, Norges Bank has operated with a high level of credibility and ranks among the most transparent central banks in the world. However, the current highly uncertain global outlook can present challenges for monetary policy formulation and implementation. Navigating rapidly evolving global developments and volatile data may require enhancements to the policy process. This could include expanding the use of scenario analysis—an approach Norges Bank has employed in the past—and refining communication strategies to maintain well-anchored expectations.

    The recent relaxation of the loan-to-value (LTV) limit for mortgages could increase financial vulnerabilities. Although households’ debt burden has stabilized, it remains high. A higher LTV limit may fuel further increases in house prices and household indebtedness, contributing to higher financial stability risks, particularly if downside risks to growth or upside risks to inflation materialize. Lasting improvements in housing affordability will require structural measures to address factors that keep prices elevated, including a relatively small rental market, limited land availability in urban areas, high construction costs, and a tax system that encourages mortgage debt. Gradually phasing-out mortgage interest deductibility (starting with a cap on income-tax deductions) would help curb speculative housing demand and enhance tax efficiency. Tightening eligibility for subsidized mortgages would also help manage housing demand and public spending.

    The financial system is sound with strong buffers, but further macroprudential easing should wait until systemic risks recede or financial disintermediation risks emerge. Continued close financial system monitoring is essential. Participation in the initiative to undertake a Nordic-Baltic regional stress test exercise would enhance the assessment of cross-border financial interlinkages and risks. Measures to address increased bank reliance on covered bonds are also welcome and would help mitigate interconnectedness risks. The current countercyclical capital buffer setting remains appropriate, but Norges Bank should be prepared to raise it if cyclical vulnerabilities increase. Priority should be given to preserving capital buffers, including by ensuring that banks’ models properly reflect credit risks and to strengthening contingency planning amid continued pressure on the commercial real estate (CRE) sector. Over the medium term, broadening the toolkit for CRE vulnerabilities could help address these in a more targeted manner during future upswings, and borrower-based-measures on CRE lending, as well as sector-specific capital surcharges to address risks from the insurance sector’s CRE exposures could be considered. Work to address the findings of the 2024 Nordic-Baltic crisis management exercise and the 2020 FSAP recommendations should continue.

    Moving towards a broadly neutral fiscal policy stance would support the disinflation effort and improve the coherence of the overall macroeconomic policy mix. The 2025 budget further expands the fiscal stimulus, with an estimated fiscal impulse of about 2.5 percent of trend mainland GDP. While the impact on domestic activity may be dampened by the composition of spending (including through imports and transfers abroad), the stimulus is still expected to provide a significant boost to the domestic economy.

    Enhancements to Norway’s robust fiscal framework would help ensure continued delivery of strong economic and social outcomes. Reinforcing countercyclicality and spending discipline would enhance fiscal resilience. Complementing the fiscal rule with explicit medium-term expenditure limits could reduce exposure to volatility from market-driven changes in the large and growing value of the GPFG and improve fiscal planning. Strengthening multi-year budgeting, improving public investment management, conducting more systematic spending reviews and setting efficiency targets would support more strategic resource allocation and enhance public service delivery. Benchmarking the setup of the Advisory Panel on Fiscal Policy Analysis against best international practices for independent fiscal councils and expanding its mandate would help further enhance the fiscal framework.

    Advancing fiscal reforms is essential to bolster resilience and support long-term growth. Tax reforms aimed at improving efficiency and broadening the revenue base remain a priority. Consolidating multiple VAT rates and enhancing incentives for work and investment would improve resilience of the tax system. Further measures to reform disability and sickness benefits, along the lines of past IMF recommendations, are needed to reduce work disincentives, increase labor force participation, and contain long-term fiscal costs. Sustained reform efforts are crucial to ensure long-term sustainability of fiscal policy in the face of rising structural spending pressures.

    A broad and ambitious reform agenda is essential to accelerate productivity growth and mitigate the effects of geoeconomic fragmentation. Advancing the “reinforced work line” agenda would reduce reliance on disability benefits, raise labor force participation among underrepresented groups—including youth and immigrants—and increase total hours worked. Strengthening education-to-work transitions, promoting full-time employment, and accelerating digitalization would further support productivity. Finally, further measures are likely to be needed to achieve Norway’s 2035 emission reduction targets.

    The IMF team thanks the Norwegian authorities and other counterparts for their hospitality and the constructive and insightful discussions.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Eva-Maria Graf

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/06/25/norway-staff-concluding-statement-for-the-2025-article-iv-consultation-mission

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

    June 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Europe: NATO Summit in The Hague concludes with joint decisions and a focus on the future

    Source: Government of the Netherlands

    News item | 26-06-2025 | 09:59

    The second and final day of the NATO Summit in The Hague focused on the new NATO standard: spending 3.5 percent of gross domestic product on defence, plus an additional 1.5 percent for supporting activities. Heads of state, government leaders, and the foreign and defence ministers of NATO member countries gathered at the World Forum to make decisions on this matter.

    Enlarge image
    North Atlantic Council | Photo: Ministry of Foreign Affairs

    North Atlantic Council: decisions for the alliance

    The main event on Wednesday 25 June was the meeting of the North Atlantic Council. NATO country leaders discussed the security situation in the world and made decisions about the future direction of the alliance. Topics included increased defence spending, support for Ukraine, strengthening collective defence, and cooperation on technology and innovation.

    In addition to the plenary meetings, various countries – including the Netherlands – held bilateral talks.

    Enlarge image
    Secretary General Mark Rutte | Photo: Ministry of Foreign Affairs

    Closing press conference and The Hague Summit Declaration

    At the end of the day, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte held a press conference where he discussed the Summit’s outcomes. Following this, the Netherlands and other NATO allies held press conferences, and the The Hague Summit Declaration was presented.

    NATO Public Forum: discussions on peace and security

    On this final day of the Summit, the NATO Public Forum was again broadcast live online. Heads of government, young people, experts and opinion leaders participated in panels and talks on current issues relating to peace and security. The sessions are available to watch at www.natopublicforum.org.

    With the conclusion of the Summit, the Netherlands can look back on two intensive days of talks and cooperation. It has been a week in which The Hague’s full focus has been on international security and the NATO alliance.

    MIL OSI Europe News –

    June 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: President Lai meets Japan’s former Economic Security Minister Kobayashi Takayuki

    Source: Republic of China Taiwan

    Details
    2025-06-16
    President Lai meets delegation led by Representative Bera, co-chair of US Congressional Taiwan Caucus
    On the morning of June 16, President Lai Ching-te met with a delegation led by Representative Ami Bera, co-chair of the US Congressional Taiwan Caucus. In remarks, President Lai thanked the representatives in Congress for actively voicing support for Taiwan and proposing numerous Taiwan-friendly initiatives to strengthen Taiwan-US ties, helping expand Taiwan’s international space and continuing to place focus on peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. The president said that we will continue to strengthen bilateral investment and industrial cooperation and create a more comprehensive environment for economic and trade exchanges to jointly enhance economic and developmental resilience. A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: I am delighted to meet with the delegation and welcome Congressman Bera back to the Presidential Office. Last January, he visited after the presidential election, demonstrating the steadfast backing of the US Congress for democratic Taiwan. This time, as head of a delegation of new members of the House Armed Services Committee and the Foreign Affairs Committee, he is continuing to foster US congressional support for Taiwan. On behalf of the people of Taiwan, I extend a sincere welcome to Congressman Bera and all our esteemed guests. Over the years, staunch bipartisan US congressional backing of Taiwan has been a key force for steadily advancing our bilateral relations. I thank the representatives in Congress for actively voicing support for Taiwan and proposing numerous Taiwan-friendly initiatives, thereby strengthening Taiwan-US ties, helping expand Taiwan’s international space, and continuing to place focus on peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. I want to emphasize that Taiwan has an unwavering determination to safeguard peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. Over the past year, the government and private sector have been working together to enhance Taiwan’s whole-of-society defense resilience and accelerate reform of national defense. The government is also prioritizing special budget allocations to ensure that our defense budget exceeds three percent of GDP this year. I hope that Taiwan-US security cooperation will evolve beyond military procurement to a partnership that encompasses joint research and development and joint production, further strengthening cooperation and exchange in the defense industry. Regarding industrial exchanges, last month, Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) and Minister of Economic Affairs Kuo Jyh-huei (郭智輝) each visited Texas to see firsthand Taiwan-US collaboration in AI and semiconductors. And the delegation led by Executive Yuan Secretary-General Kung Ming-hsin (龔明鑫) sent by Taiwan to this year’s SelectUSA Investment Summit in Washington, DC, was again the largest of those attending. All of this demonstrates Taiwan’s commitment to working alongside the US to create mutual prosperity. In the future, we will continue to strengthen bilateral investment and industrial cooperation. And I hope that the legislation addressing the issue of Taiwan-US double taxation will become law this year. I want to thank Congressman Bera for co-leading a joint letter last November signed by over 100 members of Congress calling for such legislation. I believe that by creating a more comprehensive environment for economic and trade exchanges, Taiwan and the US can enhance economic and developmental resilience. In closing, I thank you all for making the long journey here to advance Taiwan-US relations. Let us continue working together to promote the prosperous development of this important partnership. Congressman Bera then delivered remarks, saying that on behalf of the delegation, it is an honor for him to be here once again, it being last January that he and Congressman Mario Díaz-Balart visited and congratulated President Lai on his election victory, noting that theirs was the first congressional delegation to do so. Congressman Bera said that this is an important time, not just for the US and Taiwan relationship, but for all relationships around the world. When we look at conflicts in Europe and in the Middle East, he said, it is incumbent upon democracies to hold the peace in Asia. He emphasized that is why it is important for them to bring a delegation of members of the Foreign Affairs Committee and the Armed Services Committee, adding that he believes for all of them it is their first trip to Taiwan.  Congressman Bera said that while this is a delegation of Democratic members of Congress, in a bipartisan way all of Congress continues to support the people of Taiwan. As such, in this visit he brings support from his co-chairs on the Taiwan caucus, Congressman Díaz-Balart and Congressman Andy Barr. He also took a moment to recognize the passing of Congressman Gerald Connolly, who was a longtime friend of Taiwan and one of their co-chairs on the caucus. Congressman Bera mentioned that there is always a special bond between himself and President Lai because they are both doctors, and as doctors, their profession is about healing, keeping the peace, and making sure everybody has a bright, prosperous future. In closing, he highlighted that it is in that spirit that their delegation visits with the president. The delegation also included members of the US Congress Gabe Amo, Wesley Bell, Julie Johnson, Sarah McBride, and Johnny Olszewski.

    Details
    2025-06-13
    President Lai meets delegation led by French National Assembly Taiwan Friendship Group Chair Marie-Noëlle Battistel
    On the morning of June 12, President Lai Ching-te met a delegation led by Marie-Noëlle Battistel, chair of the French National Assembly’s Taiwan Friendship Group. In remarks, President Lai thanked the National Assembly for its long-term support for Taiwan’s international participation and for upholding security in the Taiwan Strait, helping make France the first major country in the world to enact legislation to uphold freedom of navigation in the Taiwan Strait. The president also said that exchanges and cooperation between Taiwan and France are becoming more frequent, and that he hopes this visit by the Taiwan Friendship Group will inject new momentum into Taiwan-France relations and help build closer partnerships in the economy, trade, energy, and digital security.  A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: First, I would like to welcome Chair Battistel, who is once again leading a visiting delegation. Last year, Chair Battistel co-led a delegation to attend the inauguration ceremony for myself and Vice President Bi-khim Hsiao. This is her fourth visit, and first as chair of the Taiwan Friendship Group, which makes it especially meaningful. This delegation’s visit demonstrates strong support for Taiwan, and on behalf of the people of Taiwan, I want to express my sincerest welcome and thanks. France is a pioneer in promoting free and democratic values. These are values that Taiwan cherishes and is working hard to defend. I want to express gratitude to the French Parliament for their long-term support for Taiwan’s international participation, and for upholding security in the Taiwan Strait. The French Parliament’s two chambers have continued to strongly support Taiwan, with the passage of a resolution supporting Taiwan’s participation in international organizations in 2021, as well as the passage of the seven-year Military Programming Law in 2023. This has made France the first major country in the world to enact legislation to uphold freedom of navigation in the Taiwan Strait. Through it all, the Taiwan Friendship Group has played a key role, and I want to thank all of our distinguished guests for their efforts. Over the past few years, Taiwan and France have continued to deepen cooperation in areas including the economy, technology, culture, and sports. At the Choose France summit held in Paris last month, Taiwanese and French enterprises also announced they will launch cooperation in the semiconductor and satellite fields. The VivaTech startup exhibition, now being held in France, also has many Taiwanese vendors participating. Exchanges and cooperation between Taiwan and France, whether official or people-to-people, are becoming more and more frequent. I hope that this visit by the Taiwan Friendship Group will inject new momentum into Taiwan-France relations, building closer partnerships in the economy, trade, energy, and digital security.  To address current geopolitical and economic challenges, Taiwan will continue to join forces with France and other like-minded countries to jointly safeguard peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, and contribute our concerted efforts to global prosperity and development. Once again, I want to welcome our visitors to Taiwan. I hope to continue our joint efforts to create a more prosperous future for both Taiwan and France.   Chair Battistel then delivered remarks, thanking President Lai for extending this invitation. Last year on May 20, she said, she and her delegation attended the presidential inauguration ceremony, so she was delighted to visit Taiwan once again with the French National Assembly’s Taiwan Friendship Group and bear witness to their friendship with Taiwan. Chair Battistel noted that this visit has given them an opportunity to strengthen Taiwan-France relations in areas including the economy, culture, the humanities, and diplomacy, and conduct exchanges with numerous heads of government agencies and research institutes. It has also been an opportunity, she said, to witness the importance of exchanges and cooperation with Taiwan in areas including energy, semiconductors, youth, and culture, and the impact created by important issues of mutual concern, including AI and disinformation, on the security of many countries. Chair Battistel praised Taiwan for its youth development efforts, and said that under the Taiwan Global Pathfinders Initiative, 30 Taiwanese young people have embarked on a visit to France, with itineraries including the United Nations Ocean Conference and the VivaTech exhibition, as well as the city of Toulouse, which is strategically important for the aerospace industry. Members of the group are also conducting exchanges at the French National Assembly, she said.  Chair Battistel stated that the Taiwan-France partnership is growing closer, and that she hopes to continue to strengthen bilateral exchanges and cooperation, as supporting peace for Taiwan supports peace around the world.  The delegation also included Taiwan Friendship Group Vice Chair Éric Martineau, as well as National Assembly Committee on Foreign Affairs Vice Chair Laetitia Saint-Paul and Deputies Marie-José Allemand and Claudia Rouaux. The delegation was accompanied to the Presidential Office by French Office in Taipei Deputy Director Cléa Le Cardeur.

    Details
    2025-06-05
    President Lai hosts state banquet for President Bernardo Arévalo of Republic of Guatemala  
    At noon on June 5, President Lai Ching-te hosted a state banquet at the Presidential Office for President Bernardo Arévalo of the Republic of Guatemala and his wife. In his remarks, President Lai noted that Taiwan and Guatemala have both undergone an arduous democratization process, and therefore, in face of the continuous expansion of authoritarian influence, must join hands in brotherhood and come together in solidarity to safeguard our hard-earned freedom and democracy. President Lai also expressed hope that both countries will work together and continue to deepen various exchanges and cooperation, taking a friendship that has lasted over 90 years to new heights. A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: Once again, I would like to offer a warm welcome to President Arévalo and First Lady Lucrecia Peinado, who are leading this delegation to Taiwan. President Arévalo’s previous visit to Taiwan was 31 years ago. Back then, Taiwan did not have direct presidential elections, and the nation was continuing to make progress toward democratization. Today, 31 years later, Taiwan has conducted direct presidential elections eight times, with three transfers of power between political parties. On this visit, I am sure that President Arévalo will gain a deep appreciation for Taiwan’s free and democratic atmosphere.  Taiwan and Guatemala have both undergone an arduous democratization process. A little over 200 years ago, the people of Guatemala took a stand against colonial oppression, seeking national dignity and the freedom of its people. Eighty-one years ago, President Arévalo’s father, Juan José Arévalo, became Guatemala’s first democratically elected president, establishing an important foundation for subsequent democratic development.  Our two peoples have democracy in their blood. Both know the value of freedom and democracy and are willing to take a stand for those values. Therefore, in face of the continuous expansion of authoritarian influence, our two countries must join hands in brotherhood to respond to threats and challenges, and come together in solidarity to safeguard our hard-earned freedom and democracy. I hope that both countries will work together to continue to deepen various exchanges and cooperation, taking a friendship that has lasted over 90 years to new heights. I hope that on this visit, in addition to gaining a deeper understanding of Taiwan’s political, economic, and social development, President Arévalo can also reacquaint himself with the democratic vitality and cultural diversity of Taiwan by sampling various gourmet delicacies and once again experiencing the beauty of our scenery and warmth of our people. Guatemala is a very beautiful country. In the future, I hope to have a chance to personally experience that beauty, explore Mayan civilization, and savor local Guatemalan coffee. In closing, I wish the visiting delegation a smooth and successful trip, and beautiful, unforgettable memories. May President Arévalo enjoy the best of health, and may the diplomatic friendship between our two countries endure. President Arévalo then delivered remarks, stating that at different times and by different means, the people of Taiwan and Guatemala have relentlessly sought to defend freedom and democracy. We share the same expectations, he said, and are walking the right path amid today’s complex international circumstances.  President Arévalo stated that Taiwan and Guatemala are true democratic nations, where the government’s goal is to serve all the people. He noted that this is far from easy under current circumstances, as many authoritarian regimes use their long-term hold on power to safeguard the interests of select groups and neglect the wellbeing of the population as a whole. President Arévalo said that last week Guatemala commemorated the 40th anniversary of its constitution, which was enacted in 1985 and is Guatemala’s ultimate guide, setting the foundation for democracy and clearly outlining the path ahead. He said that over the past 40 years, Guatemala has continued to follow the democratic blueprint established by the constitution and end the civil war so that the nation could make the transition to real democracy. Although more than a few ambitious people have attempted to destroy that process from within, he noted, the people of Guatemala have never given up the pursuit of democracy as an ideal. President Arévalo stated that our two sides’ coming together here is due to such shared values as freedom and democracy as well as the idea of serving all the people. He underlined that the governments of both countries will continue to work hard and provide mutual support to smooth out each other’s path of democracy, freedom, and justice. President Arévalo emphasized that the government of Guatemala will always be Taiwan’s ally, and that he firmly believes Taiwan is Guatemala’s most reliable partner on the path of democracy and economic prosperity and development. The president said he hopes this visit will be the first step towards setting a new course for the governments and peoples of both countries. Also in attendance at the banquet were Guatemala Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos Ramiro Martínez, Minister of the Economy Gabriela García, and Guatemala Ambassador Luis Raúl Estévez López.  

    Details
    2025-06-05
    President Lai welcomes President Bernardo Arévalo of Republic of Guatemala with military honors  
    On the morning of June 5, President Lai Ching-te welcomed with full military honors President Bernardo Arévalo of the Republic of Guatemala and his wife, who are leading a delegation of cabinet members visiting Taiwan for the first time, demonstrating the deep and enduring alliance between our nations. In remarks, President Lai noted that over the past few years, bilateral cooperation between Taiwan and Guatemala has grown closer and more diverse, and said that moving forward, based on a foundation of mutual assistance for mutual benefit, we will continue to promote programs in line with international trends, spurring prosperity and development in both our nations. The military honors ceremony began at 10:30 a.m. in the Entrance Hall of the Presidential Office. After a 21-gun salute and the playing of the two countries’ national anthems, President Lai and President Arévalo each delivered remarks. A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: Today, President Arévalo and First Lady Lucrecia Peinado are leading a delegation of cabinet members visiting Taiwan for the first time, demonstrating the deep and enduring alliance between our nations. On behalf of the people and government of the Republic of China (Taiwan), I want to extend my sincerest welcome. Last year, our two countries celebrated the 90th anniversary of diplomatic ties, providing mutual support all along the way. Especially over the past few years, bilateral cooperation has grown closer and more diverse. We have a long record of remarkable results, whether in terms of medicine and public health, education and culture, technological cooperation, or economic and trade exchanges. Moving forward, based on a foundation of mutual assistance for mutual benefit, Taiwan and Guatemala will continue to promote programs in line with international trends. We will continue to strengthen exchange and cooperation for young people, as well as scholarship programs, and actively cultivate high-tech and information and communications technology industry talent, spurring prosperity and development in both our nations. Although separated by a great distance, the peoples of both countries are closely connected by their ideals and values. I am confident that with President Arévalo’s support, bilateral exchanges and cooperation will become closer and more diverse, beginning a very promising new chapter. I wish the visiting delegation a smooth and successful trip. President Arévalo then delivered remarks, saying that on behalf of the government and people of Guatemala, he is honored to visit the Republic of China (Taiwan), this beautiful nation, and to receive full military honors, which reflects the mutual respect between our two nations as well as our solid friendship. Especially as this state visit comes as we celebrate 90 years of formal diplomatic ties, he said, he has brought the foreign minister, economics minister, private secretary to the president, and social communication secretary as members of his delegation, in the hope of our ties embarking on a new chapter. President Arévalo said that Guatemala-Taiwan ties have in recent years been growing steadily on a foundation of mutual understanding and cooperation, making significant progress, and that our peoples have also cultivated sincere friendships and cooperative relationships across many fields. Our nations are especially promoting public health, education, agricultural technology, and infrastructure, he said, key fields which are conducive to economic and social development. He expressed his hope that on such good foundations of the past, we can further strengthen our bilateral ties for the future. President Arévalo stated that through this state visit they not only want to reaffirm the good bilateral ties between our nations, but that they also hope to define a trajectory for the future of our cooperation in the direction of expanding economic cooperation, building economic and trade alliances, and facilitating investment to foster a Taiwan-Guatemala relationship that benefits both peoples. He then expressed gratitude to the people of Taiwan for helping Guatemala over the past 90 years and reaffirmed the unwavering support of Guatemala for the Republic of China (Taiwan). On the occasion of this visit, he said, he hopes to extend a friendly hand to the people of Taiwan, adding that he looks forward to our nations continuing to take major steps forward on the road of mutual assistance and prosperity. Also in attendance at the welcome ceremony were Dean of the Diplomatic Corps and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Ambassador Andrea Clare Bowman, and members of the foreign diplomatic corps in Taiwan.  

    Details
    2025-06-03
    President Lai confers decoration on President Hilda C. Heine of Republic of the Marshall Islands, hosts state banquet  
    At noon on June 3, President Lai Ching-te, accompanied by Vice President Bi-khim Hsiao, conferred a decoration upon President Hilda C. Heine of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and hosted a state banquet for President Heine and her husband at the Presidential Office. In remarks, President Lai thanked President Heine for her commitment to deepening the diplomatic partnership between our nations and speaking up for Taiwan in the international arena. He also expressed hope for Taiwan and the Marshall Islands to work together to address various challenges through an even greater diversity of exchanges, and that together, we can contribute even more to peace, stability, and development throughout the Pacific region. At the decoration ceremony, President Lai personally conferred the Order of Brilliant Jade with Grand Cordon on President Heine before delivering remarks, a translation of which follows:  The Marshall Islands was the first Pacific ally that I visited after taking office as president. When I arrived there, I was immediately drawn to its beautiful scenery. And I received a very warm welcome from the local people. This gesture showed the profound friendship between our two nations. I was truly touched. I also remember trying your nation’s special Bob Whisky for the first time. The flavor was as unique and impressive as the landscape of the Marshall Islands.  In addition to welcoming our distinguished guests today, we also presented President Heine with the Order of Brilliant Jade with Grand Cordon. On behalf of the people of Taiwan, I want to thank President Heine for her commitment to deepening the diplomatic partnership between our nations, and for staunchly speaking up for Taiwan in the international arena. Both I and the people of Taiwan are profoundly grateful to President Heine for her friendship and support. Over the past few years, cooperation between Taiwan and the Marshall Islands has grown ever closer. And this visit by our distinguished guests will allow our two countries to further expand areas of bilateral exchange. I have always believed that only through mutual assistance and trust can two countries build a longstanding and steadfast partnership. I once again convey my sincere aspiration that Taiwan and the Marshall Islands work together to address various challenges through an even greater diversity of exchanges. Together, we can contribute even more to peace, stability, and development throughout the Pacific region. In closing, I want to thank President Heine and First Gentleman Thomas Kijiner, Jr. for leading this delegation to Taiwan, which deepens the foundations of our bilateral relationship. May our two nations enjoy a long and enduring friendship. President Heine then delivered remarks, stating that she felt especially privileged to receive the Order of Brilliant Jade with Grand Cordon of the Republic of China (Taiwan), and humbly accepted the honor with the utmost gratitude, humility, and deep responsibility. This is a deep responsibility, she said, because she understands that since its inception in 1933, this order has been bestowed upon a select few. She then thanked President Lai for this great honor. President Heine stated that the banquet was not just a celebration of our bilateral friendship, but a true reflection of the generosity of the Taiwan spirit and a testament to the enduring ties between our nations, founded on shared values and aspirations, including a respect for the rule of law, the preservation of human dignity, and a deep commitment to democracy. President Heine stated that the Taiwan-Marshall Islands partnership continues to evolve through practical cooperation and mutual support. In recent years, she said, our countries have worked hand in hand across a range of vital sectors, including the recent opening of the Majuro Hospital AI and Telehealth Center and the ongoing and successful Taiwan Health Center, various technical training and scholarship programs, and various climate change adaptation projects in renewable energy, coastal resilience, and sustainable agriculture.   President Heine emphasized that the Marshall Islands continues to be a proud and vocal supporter of Taiwan’s meaningful participation in the United Nations system and other international organizations. Taiwan’s exclusion from these platforms, she said, is not only unjust, but is bad for the world, and the global community needs Taiwan’s voice and expertise.  President Heine also expressed sincere appreciation to all of the Taiwanese friends who have contributed their efforts to deepening bilateral relations, including government officials, healthcare workers, teachers, engineers, and volunteers. The people of the Marshall Islands, she said, deeply appreciate and value everyone’s efforts and service. President Heine said that as we celebrate our partnership, let us look to the future with hope and determination, continue to work together, learn from one another, and support one another to champion a world where all nations can chart their own course based on peace and international law. Also attending the state banquet were Marshall Islands Council of Iroij Chairman Lanny Kabua, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Kalani R. Kaneko, Minister of Finance David Paul, Nitijela Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and Trade Chairperson Joe Bejang, and Charge d’Affaires a.i. Anjanette Davis-Anjel of the Embassy of the Republic of the Marshall Islands.  

    Details
    2025-05-20
    President Lai interviewed by Nippon Television and Yomiuri TV
    In a recent interview on Nippon Television’s news zero program, President Lai Ching-te responded to questions from host Mr. Sakurai Sho and Yomiuri TV Shanghai Bureau Chief Watanabe Masayo on topics including reflections on his first year in office, cross-strait relations, China’s military threats, Taiwan-United States relations, and Taiwan-Japan relations. The interview was broadcast on the evening of May 19. During the interview, President Lai stated that China intends to change the world’s rules-based international order, and that if Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted. Therefore, he said, Taiwan will strengthen its national defense, prevent war by preparing for war, and achieve the goal of peace. The president also noted that Taiwan’s purpose for developing drones is based on national security and industrial needs, and that Taiwan hopes to collaborate with Japan. He then reiterated that China’s threats are an international problem, and expressed hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war. Following is the text of the questions and the president’s responses: Q: How do you feel as you are about to round out your first year in office? President Lai: When I was young, I was determined to practice medicine and save lives. When I left medicine to go into politics, I was determined to transform Taiwan. And when I was sworn in as president on May 20 last year, I was determined to strengthen the nation. Time flies, and it has already been a year. Although the process has been very challenging, I am deeply honored to be a part of it. I am also profoundly grateful to our citizens for allowing me the opportunity to give back to our country. The future will certainly be full of more challenges, but I will do everything I can to unite the people and continue strengthening the nation. That is how I am feeling now. Q: We are now coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, and over this period, we have often heard that conflict between Taiwan and the mainland is imminent. Do you personally believe that a cross-strait conflict could happen? President Lai: The international community is very much aware that China intends to replace the US and change the world’s rules-based international order, and annexing Taiwan is just the first step. So, as China’s military power grows stronger, some members of the international community are naturally on edge about whether a cross-strait conflict will break out. The international community must certainly do everything in its power to avoid a conflict in the Taiwan Strait; there is too great a cost. Besides causing direct disasters to both Taiwan and China, the impact on the global economy would be even greater, with estimated losses of US$10 trillion from war alone – that is roughly 10 percent of the global GDP. Additionally, 20 percent of global shipping passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, so if a conflict breaks out in the strait, other countries including Japan and Korea would suffer a grave impact. For Japan and Korea, a quarter of external transit passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, and a third of the various energy resources and minerals shipped back from other countries pass through said areas. If Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted, and therefore conflict in the Taiwan Strait must be avoided. Such a conflict is indeed avoidable. I am very thankful to Prime Minister of Japan Ishiba Shigeru and former Prime Ministers Abe Shinzo, Suga Yoshihide, and Kishida Fumio, as well as US President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden, and the other G7 leaders, for continuing to emphasize at international venues that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are essential components for global security and prosperity. When everyone in the global democratic community works together, stacking up enough strength to make China’s objectives unattainable or to make the cost of invading Taiwan too high for it to bear, a conflict in the strait can naturally be avoided. Q: As you said, President Lai, maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is also very important for other countries. How can war be avoided? What sort of countermeasures is Taiwan prepared to take to prevent war? President Lai: As Mr. Sakurai mentioned earlier, we are coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of WWII. There are many lessons we can take from that war. First is that peace is priceless, and war has no winners. From the tragedies of WWII, there are lessons that humanity should learn. We must pursue peace, and not start wars blindly, as that would be a major disaster for humanity. In other words, we must be determined to safeguard peace. The second lesson is that we cannot be complacent toward authoritarian powers. If you give them an inch, they will take a mile. They will keep growing, and eventually, not only will peace be unattainable, but war will be inevitable. The third lesson is why WWII ended: It ended because different groups joined together in solidarity. Taiwan, Japan, and the Indo-Pacific region are all directly subjected to China’s threats, so we hope to be able to join together in cooperation. This is why we proposed the Four Pillars of Peace action plan. First, we will strengthen our national defense. Second, we will strengthen economic resilience. Third is standing shoulder to shoulder with the democratic community to demonstrate the strength of deterrence. Fourth is that as long as China treats Taiwan with parity and dignity, Taiwan is willing to conduct exchanges and cooperate with China, and seek peace and mutual prosperity. These four pillars can help us avoid war and achieve peace. That is to say, Taiwan hopes to achieve peace through strength, prevent war by preparing for war, keeping war from happening and pursuing the goal of peace. Q: Regarding drones, everyone knows that recently, Taiwan has been actively researching, developing, and introducing drones. Why do you need to actively research, develop, and introduce new drones at this time? President Lai: This is for two purposes. The first is to meet national security needs. The second is to meet industrial development needs. Because Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines are all part of the first island chain, and we are all democratic nations, we cannot be like an authoritarian country like China, which has an unlimited national defense budget. In this kind of situation, island nations such as Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines should leverage their own technologies to develop national defense methods that are asymmetric and utilize unmanned vehicles. In particular, from the Russo-Ukrainian War, we see that Ukraine has successfully utilized unmanned vehicles to protect itself and prevent Russia from unlimited invasion. In other words, the Russo-Ukrainian War has already proven the importance of drones. Therefore, the first purpose of developing drones is based on national security needs. Second, the world has already entered the era of smart technology. Whether generative, agentic, or physical, AI will continue to develop. In the future, cars and ships will also evolve into unmanned vehicles and unmanned boats, and there will be unmanned factories. Drones will even be able to assist with postal deliveries, or services like Uber, Uber Eats, and foodpanda, or agricultural irrigation and pesticide spraying. Therefore, in the future era of comprehensive smart technology, developing unmanned vehicles is a necessity. Taiwan, based on industrial needs, is actively planning the development of drones and unmanned vehicles. I would like to take this opportunity to express Taiwan’s hope to collaborate with Japan in the unmanned vehicle industry. Just as we do in the semiconductor industry, where Japan has raw materials, equipment, and technology, and Taiwan has wafer manufacturing, our two countries can cooperate. Japan is a technological power, and Taiwan also has significant technological strengths. If Taiwan and Japan work together, we will not only be able to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and security in the Indo-Pacific region, but it will also be very helpful for the industrial development of both countries. Q: The drones you just described probably include examples from the Russo-Ukrainian War. Taiwan and China are separated by the Taiwan Strait. Do our drones need to have cross-sea flight capabilities? President Lai: Taiwan does not intend to counterattack the mainland, and does not intend to invade any country. Taiwan’s drones are meant to protect our own nation and territory. Q: Former President Biden previously stated that US forces would assist Taiwan’s defense in the event of an attack. President Trump, however, has yet to clearly state that the US would help defend Taiwan. Do you think that in such an event, the US would help defend Taiwan? Or is Taiwan now trying to persuade the US? President Lai: Former President Biden and President Trump have answered questions from reporters. Although their responses were different, strong cooperation with Taiwan under the Biden administration has continued under the Trump administration; there has been no change. During President Trump’s first term, cooperation with Taiwan was broader and deeper compared to former President Barack Obama’s terms. After former President Biden took office, cooperation with Taiwan increased compared to President Trump’s first term. Now, during President Trump’s second term, cooperation with Taiwan is even greater than under former President Biden. Taiwan-US cooperation continues to grow stronger, and has not changed just because President Trump and former President Biden gave different responses to reporters. Furthermore, the Trump administration publicly stated that in the future, the US will shift its strategic focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. The US secretary of defense even publicly stated that the primary mission of the US is to prevent China from invading Taiwan, maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific, and thus maintain world peace. There is a saying in Taiwan that goes, “Help comes most to those who help themselves.” Before asking friends and allies for assistance in facing threats from China, Taiwan must first be determined and prepared to defend itself. This is Taiwan’s principle, and we are working in this direction, making all the necessary preparations to safeguard the nation. Q: I would like to ask you a question about Taiwan-Japan relations. After the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, you made an appeal to give Japan a great deal of assistance and care. In particular, you visited Sendai to offer condolences. Later, you also expressed condolences and concern after the earthquakes in Aomori and Kumamoto. What are your expectations for future Taiwan-Japan exchanges and development? President Lai: I come from Tainan, and my constituency is in Tainan. Tainan has very deep ties with Japan, and of course, Taiwan also has deep ties with Japan. However, among Taiwan’s 22 counties and cities, Tainan has the deepest relationship with Japan. I sincerely hope that both of you and your teams will have an opportunity to visit Tainan. I will introduce Tainan’s scenery, including architecture from the era of Japanese rule, Tainan’s cuisine, and unique aspects of Tainan society, and you can also see lifestyles and culture from the Showa era.  The Wushantou Reservoir in Tainan was completed by engineer Mr. Hatta Yoichi from Kanazawa, Japan and the team he led to Tainan after he graduated from then-Tokyo Imperial University. It has nearly a century of history and is still in use today. This reservoir, along with the 16,000-km-long Chianan Canal, transformed the 150,000-hectare Chianan Plain into Taiwan’s premier rice-growing area. It was that foundation in agriculture that enabled Taiwan to develop industry and the technology sector of today. The reservoir continues to supply water to Tainan Science Park. It is used by residents of Tainan, the agricultural sector, and industry, and even the technology sector in Xinshi Industrial Park, as well as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Because of this, the people of Tainan are deeply grateful for Mr. Hatta and very friendly toward the people of Japan. A major earthquake, the largest in 50 years, struck Tainan on February 6, 2016, resulting in significant casualties. As mayor of Tainan at the time, I was extremely grateful to then-Prime Minister Abe, who sent five Japanese officials to the disaster site in Tainan the day after the earthquake. They were very thoughtful and asked what kind of assistance we needed from the Japanese government. They offered to provide help based on what we needed. I was deeply moved, as former Prime Minister Abe showed such care, going beyond the formality of just sending supplies that we may or may not have actually needed. Instead, the officials asked what we needed and then provided assistance based on those needs, which really moved me. Similarly, when the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 or the later Kumamoto earthquakes struck, the people of Tainan, under my leadership, naturally and dutifully expressed their support. Even earlier, when central Taiwan was hit by a major earthquake in 1999, Japan was the first country to deploy a rescue team to the disaster area. On February 6, 2018, after a major earthquake in Hualien, former Prime Minister Abe appeared in a video holding up a message of encouragement he had written in calligraphy saying “Remain strong, Taiwan.” All of Taiwan was deeply moved. Over the years, Taiwan and Japan have supported each other when earthquakes struck, and have forged bonds that are family-like, not just neighborly. This is truly valuable. In the future, I hope Taiwan and Japan can be like brothers, and that the peoples of Taiwan and Japan can treat one another like family. If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem; if Japan has a problem, then Taiwan has a problem. By caring for and helping each other, we can face various challenges and difficulties, and pursue a brighter future. Q: President Lai, you just used the phrase “If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem.” In the event that China attempts to invade Taiwan by force, what kind of response measures would you hope the US military and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces take? President Lai: As I just mentioned, annexing Taiwan is only China’s first step. Its ultimate objective is to change the rules-based international order. That being the case, China’s threats are an international problem. So, I would very much hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war – prevention, after all, is more important than cure.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

    June 26, 2025
  • Trump wants more drones and missiles, fewer F-35s in $893 billion budget request

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    U.S. President Donald Trump wants a pay raise for troops, more high-tech missiles and drones in next year’s defense budget, while cutting Navy jobs, and buying fewer ships and fighter jets to save money, according to budget materials posted Wednesday.

    At $892.6 billion, the defense and national security budget request is flat compared with this year.

    The budget, which also includes nuclear weapons-related activities carried out by the Department of Energy and increases funding for homeland security, puts Trump’s mark on the military by pulling funds away from weaponry and services to fund his priorities.

    The White House said the funding will be used to deter Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific, and revitalize the defense industrial base.

    Most of the funding for Trump’s marquee Golden Dome missile defense shield was included in a separate budget request and is not part of the latest proposal sent to Congress.

    In the 2026 budget Trump requested fewer F-35 jets made by Lockheed Martin LMT.N and only three warships. Procurement of a Virginia-class made by General Dynamics and Huntington Ingalls Industries and 15 other ships are expected to be included in a separate appropriation bill, the Navy said.

    The budget asks for a 3.8% pay raise for troops, but also trims costs by retiring older weaponry including ships and planes that are more expensive to operate. Under the plan, the Navy will reduce its civilian employee workforce by 7,286 people.

    Compared to Biden’s budget from his last year in office, which had asked for 68 F-35 jets in fiscal 2025, Trump’s fiscal 2026 request seeks only 47 of the fighter jets.

    The budget has already sparked debate on Capitol Hill where the House Appropriations Committee’s Defense subcommittee’s draft bill for fiscal-year 2026 boosts the F-35 buy to 69, one more than Biden’s 2025 request.

    The Pentagon continues prioritizing purchasing munitions and key weapons systems.

    The Air Force is continuing its investment the Joint Air to Surface Standoff Missile – Extended Range and Long Range Anti-Ship missile which have longer ranges and can be more effective in the Pacific.

    On the other hand, the budget seeks far fewer Precision Strike Missile, which will replace the Army Tactical Missile (ATACM) used in Ukraine.

    Lockheed Martin makes all three missiles.

    The budget also boosts spending on small drones – in part because of lessons learned in Ukraine where unmanned aircraft have proven to be an integral part of low-cost, yet highly effective warfighting.

    The detailed request comes as Republicans debate defense spending priorities in their sweeping $150 billion defense package contained in the pending “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”. The act has already been passed the House of Representatives and will give an initial $25 billion boost to Trump’s controversial Golden Dome missile defense shield.

    Defense spending usually accounts for about half of the U.S. discretionary budget; the rest goes to transportation, education, diplomacy and other departments.

    (Reuters)

    June 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Europe: SEK 25 million to boost Ukraine’s ability to investigate war crimes

    Source: Government of Sweden

    The Government has decided to contribute SEK 25 million to Ukraine to help digitalise the country’s processing of criminal cases. This Swedish support will increase Ukraine’s ability to investigate war crimes committed during Russia’s full-scale invasion. The support will be channelled via the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) in cooperation with the European Union Advisory Mission (EUAM) and the Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine.

    MIL OSI Europe News –

    June 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Europe: Sweden strengthens negotiating capacity for Ukraine’s path to EU membership

    Source: Government of Sweden

    The Swedish Government prioritises Ukraine’s path towards EU membership, and Sweden is now strengthening its support to increase Ukraine’s capability to implement its accession negotiations. The Stockholm School of Economics has been granted SEK 3 million via the Swedish Institute to train Ukrainian civil servants and diplomats in negotiation skills.

    MIL OSI Europe News –

    June 26, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: Oil shocks in the 1970s drove rapid changes in transport. It could happen again if Middle East tensions continue

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hussein Dia, Professor of Future Urban Mobility, Swinburne University of Technology

    The Image Bank/Getty

    As the world watches the US–Iran situation with concern, the ripple effect from these events are reaching global oil supply chains – and exposing their fragility.

    If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz as it is considering, it would restrict the global oil trade and trigger energy chaos.

    Petrol in some Australian cities could hit A$2.50 a litre according to some economists. As global instability worsens, other experts warn price spikes are increasingly likely.

    What would happen next? There is a precedent: the oil shocks of the 1970s, when oil prices quadrupled. The shock drove rapid change, from more efficient cars to sudden interest in alternative energy sources. This time, motorists would likely switch to electric vehicles.

    If this crisis continues or if another one flares up, it could mark a turning point in Australia’s long dependence on foreign oil.

    What would an oil shock mean?

    Australia currently imports 80% of its liquid fuels, the highest level on record. If the flow of oil stopped, we would have about 50 days worth in storage before we ran out.

    Our cars, buses, trucks and planes run overwhelmingly on petrol and diesel. Almost three-quarters (74%) of these liquid fuels are used in transport, with road transport accounting for more than half (54%) of all liquid fuels. Australia is highly exposed to global supply shocks.

    The best available option to reduce dependence on oil imports is to electrify transport.

    How does Australia compare on EVs?

    EV uptake in Australia continues to lag behind global leaders. In 2024, EVs accounted for 9.65% of new car sales in Australia, up from 8.45% in 2023.

    In the first quarter of 2025, EVs were 6.3% of new car sales, a decline from 7.4% in the final quarter of 2024.

    Norway remains the global leader, with battery-electric passenger cars making up 88.9% of sales in 2024. The United Kingdom also saw significant growth – EVs hit almost 20% of new car registrations in 2024.

    In China, EVs made up 40.9% of new car sales in 2024. The 12.87 million cars sold represent three-quarters of total EV sales worldwide.

    One reason for Australia’s sluggishness is a lack of reliable public chargers. While charging infrastructure is expanding, large parts of regional Australia still lack reliable access to EV charging.

    Until recently, Australia’s fuel efficiency standards were among the weakest in the OECD. Earlier this year, the government’s new standards came into force. These are expected to boost EV uptake.

    Could global tensions trigger faster action?

    If history is any guide, oil shocks lead to long-term change.

    The 1970s oil shocks triggered waves of energy reform.

    When global oil prices quadrupled in 1973–74, many nations were forced to reconsider where they got their energy. A few years later, the 1979 Iranian Revolution caused another major supply disruption, sending oil prices soaring and pushing much of the world into recession.

    Huge increases in oil prices drove people to look for alternatives during the 1970s oil shocks.
    Everett Collection/Shutterstock

    These shocks drove the formation of the International Energy Agency in 1974, spurred alternative energy investment and led to advances in fuel-efficiency standards.

    Much more recently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the European Union to face up to its reliance on Russian gas and find alternatives by importing gas from different countries and accelerating the clean energy shift.

    Clearly, energy shocks can be catalysts for long-term structural change in how we produce and consume energy.

    The new crisis could do the same, but only if policy catches up.

    If fuel prices shot up and stayed there, consumer behaviour would begin to shift. People would drive less and seek alternate forms of transport. Over time, more would look for better ways to get around.

    But without stronger support such as incentives, infrastructure and fuel security planning, shifting consumer preferences could be too slow to matter.

    A clean-energy future is more secure

    Cutting oil dependency through electrification isn’t just good for the climate. It’s also a hedge against future price shocks and supply disruptions.

    Transport is now Australia’s third-largest source of greenhouse gas emissions. Now that emissions are falling in the electricity sector, transport will be the highest emitting sector emissions source as soon as 2030.

    Building a cleaner transport system also means building a more resilient one. Charging EVs on locally produced renewable power cuts our exposure to global oil markets. So do biofuels, better public transport and smarter urban planning.

    Improving domestic energy resilience isn’t just about climate targets. It’s about economic stability and national security. Clean local energy sources reduce vulnerability to events beyond our control.

    What can we learn from China?

    China offers a compelling case study. The nation of 1.4 billion faces real oil security challenges. In response, Beijing has spent the past decade building a domestic clean energy ecosystem to reduce oil dependency and cut emissions.

    This is now bearing fruit. Last year, China’s oil imports had the first sustained fall in nearly two decades. Crude oil imports fell 1.5%, while oil refinery activity also fell due to lower demand.

    China’s rapid uptake of EVs has clear energy security benefits.
    pim pic/Shutterstock

    China’s green energy transition was driven by coordinated policy, industrial investment and public support for clean transport.

    China’s rapid shift to EVs and clean energy shows how long-term planning and targeted investment can pay off on climate and energy security.

    What we do next matters

    The rolling crises of 2025 present Australian policymakers a rare alignment of interests. What’s good for the climate, for consumers and for national security may now be the same thing.

    Real change will require more than sustained high petrol prices. It demands political will, targeted investment and a long-term vision for clean, resilient transport.

    Doing nothing has a real cost – not just in what we pay at the service station, but in how vulnerable we remain to events a long way away.

    Hussein Dia receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the iMOVE Australia Cooperative Research Centre, Transport for New South Wales, Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads, Victorian Department of Transport and Planning, and Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts.

    – ref. Oil shocks in the 1970s drove rapid changes in transport. It could happen again if Middle East tensions continue – https://theconversation.com/oil-shocks-in-the-1970s-drove-rapid-changes-in-transport-it-could-happen-again-if-middle-east-tensions-continue-259670

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    June 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI China: Zelensky, Trump discuss steps to ceasefire

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that he discussed steps toward a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict during a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump.

    “We discussed how to achieve a ceasefire and a real peace. We spoke about how to protect our people,” Zelensky said on social media platform X.

    Ukraine appreciates the attention and the readiness of the United States to help bring peace closer, Zelensky said.

    Zelensky and Trump met on the sidelines of the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands. 

    MIL OSI China News –

    June 26, 2025
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