Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
SPC AC 270558
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025
Valid 281200Z – 291200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS…
…SUMMARY…
Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in parts
of the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Marginally severe storms will be possible over part of the central
High Plains, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast.
…Southern High Plains…
At mid-levels, convergent flow from the northwest and west will be
place across the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, an
area of high pressure is forecast over the central Plains. To the
south of the anticyclone, a post-frontal airmass will gradually
modify as moisture begins to return northward over parts of the
southern Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop over a
few areas from central and east Texas into western Louisiana. Over
this modifying airmass, any severe threat is expected to be
marginal.
Further west into parts of the southern High Plains, convective
initiation is expected during the early afternoon in the higher
terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The storms will
gradually move eastward toward an axis of moderate instability.
Forecast soundings early Wednesday evening near the instability axis
have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 8 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail and
severe wind gusts, associated with strong updrafts that develop in
the afternoon and evening.
Northward into central and eastern Colorado, thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the
central Plains. Weak instability, sufficient deep-layer shear and
steep lapse rage could be enough for a marginal severe threat.
…Southeast…
West-southwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast over the Southeast
on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in
place from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the eastern
Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development is expected along zones of
maximized heating, and near focused areas of low-level convergence.
Although large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be weak, the
thermodynamic environment may be enough for marginally severe wind
gusts with the stronger multicells.
..Broyles.. 05/27/2025
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