Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joshua Black, Visitor, School of History, Australian National University

Major parties used to easily dismiss the rare politician who stood alone in parliament. These MPs could be written off as isolated idealists, and the press could condescend to them as noble, naïve and unlikely to succeed.

In November 1930, when independent country MP Harold Glowrey chose to sit on the crossbench of the Victorian parliament while his few peers joined the new United Country Party, the local newspapers emphasised that he could not “become a cabinet minister” or “have a say” in making policy from the sidelines. (As if he wasn’t aware.) Australia was a place where, according to the scribes at The Ouyen Mail, “very few constituencies were prepared to elect independent men”.

Things are rather different now. Lifelong loyalty to a single party has become a rarer thing among voters, with the Australian Election Study showing fewer than four in ten voters give their first preference vote to the same party at each election. It was more than seven in ten back in 1967.

Voters have gravitated towards alternatives to the two major parties. A new interactive data tool from the ABC shows just how much more competitive federal elections have become. Australians are now world leaders in sending independents to represent them in state and federal parliaments.

And who could call the independents of the recent past naïve? Independent MPs held the balance of power in New South Wales in the early 1990s, and in Victoria later that decade. Both parliaments saw substantive reforms and improved parliamentary processes.

A strong track record

At the federal level, a lineage of independents such as Ted Mack, Peter Andren, Zali Steggall, Cathy McGowan and her successor in Indi Helen Haines have all found new ways to give voice to their community in parliament. Voters, especially in rural electorates and formerly “safe” seats, have been attracted to candidates who promise to “do politics differently”, as McGowan so often puts it.

There are dozens of candidates making that promise at this election. At least 129 candidates are listed on House of Representatives ballot papers as independent or unaffiliated candidates in 88 seats. That’s almost twice as many independent candidates than in the 2013 election for the lower house. Around 35 of these are community independent candidates. A further 28 people are running as independents or ungrouped candidates in Senate races.

So who are the independent candidates, and what role might they play after May 3?

Who are the independent candidates?

For a start, around a third of all independent candidates for House of Representatives seats are women. Among the “community independent” candidates (commonly referred to as “teals”), it’s closer to four out of five.

This is entirely in keeping with the role daring women have played as the strongest custodians of non-party politics in Australia over the past 120-odd years.

Most of the women on ballot papers this year are professionals and public figures. Nicolette Boele, candidate for Bradfield, NSW, is a former consultant and clean energy financier who came close to unseating cabinet minister Paul Fletcher in 2022. In the seat of Calare, also in NSW, candidate Kate Hook describes herself as “a professional working mum” and “small farmer” with an interest in regional development and renewable energy. Caz Heise, candidate for Cowper (NSW) is a healthcare expert who carved a sizeable chunk out of the National Party vote in 2022. Independent candidate for Groom (Queensland) Suzie Holt is a social worker by training who finished second at the last election. Berowra’s Tina Brown is a local magazine publisher with deep roots in Sydney’s Hills District.

Who are the dozens on men putting themselves forward? Many are former mayors and councillors running for parliament while the opportunity presents itself. There are a small but noteworthy coterie of men running on a specifically Muslim platform, some of whom are running with the support of the Muslim Votes Matter organisation.

Of the few “teal” men, the most competitive by far is Alex Dyson, a third-time candidate in the western Victorian seat of Wannon, currently held by Dan Tehan, shadow minister for immigration and citizenship.

A former Triple-J presenter and comedian with a “side-hustle” as an Uber driver, Dyson will hope to benefit from his positioning at the top of the ballot paper for Wannon.

Crossbench contenders

Most of the women who swept into parliament in 2022 are campaigning to retain their seats. Dai Le in Fowler, Sophie Scamps in Mackellar, Allegra Spender in Wentworth, Zoe Daniel in Goldstein, Monique Ryan in Kooyong and Kate Chaney in Curtin all fit that category. Kylea Tink, who won the division of North Sydney in 2022, was inadvertently knocked out of the race by the Australian Electoral Commission, which abolished her seat last year.

Andrew Gee, Russell Broadbent and Ian Goodenough are all incumbent MPs running as independents in seats where they were previously elected as Coalition candidates. Tasmania’s Andrew Wilkie, a long-serving independent with first-hand experience of a federal hung parliament, is seeking his sixth successive victory.

Bob Katter and the Centre Alliance’s Rebekah Sharkie also seeking re-election to the lower house, while in the Senate, crossbenchers such as David Pocock and Jacqui Lambie are all looking to retain their places. So is Coalition defector Gerard Rennick, who quit the Liberal National Party in Queensland over a preselection loss.

Rennick’s is perhaps the tallest order of that bunch, but none of them can take anything for granted. Even Katter, with his half-century of parliamentary experience and huge local popularity, is almost 80 and is facing a large field of younger challengers, all of whom will appear above him on the ballot paper.

Campaign blues?

Plenty of people have been watching national opinion polls during this campaign. But the polls are not terribly insightful for seat-by-seat contests involving large numbers of independent contenders. Even experienced pollsters are saying it has “never been harder to get pre-election polling right”.

Months out from the election, polls conducted on behalf of Climate 200 were showing possible wins for Heise in Cowper and Boele in Bradfield. Both could win. Heise has reportedly amassed a formidable team of 3,500 volunteers in support of her grassroots campaign.

But the pressure and scrutiny of an election campaign can quickly put frontrunners under pressure. This is certainly true of Boele, whose campaign momentum stalled with a surprising scandal involving an inappropriate comment in a hair salon, as well as distancing herself from allegedly antisemitic posts on her social media posts in 2022, saying a former volunteer was responsible for them.

Multi-cornered contests between defector MPs, the major parties and community independents will also make for interesting viewing on election night. Broadbent and Goodenough both seemed quietly confident about their prospects when asked by the Australian Financial Review last week. The same cannot be said for Calare’s Andrew Gee, who began the election with a “Facebook fail” and has since endured a stressful few weeks of bitter campaigning.

When it comes to winning back the seats that independents won last time, Liberal feelings range from bullishness to bluster. Daniel faces a well-resourced campaign from her predecessor Tim Wilson in Goldstein and nothing is being spared in the contest against Chaney in Curtin.

In Kooyong, Ryan’s campaign has been hampered by the occasional error, such as her husband’s removal of an opponent’s corflutes and an awkward exchange with Sky News reporter Laura Jayes. In an election dominated by the housing affordability crisis, voters are less likely to remember these moments than the revelations that Ryan’s Liberal opponent, Amelia Hamer, a self-identified renter, happens to own two investment properties.

The biggest drama has been in the affluent Sydney seat of Wentworth, where Spender has weathered attacks about her political donations disclosures and approach to tackling antisemitism.

An anonymous person circulated 47,000 leaflets through the electorate criticising Spender’s “weakness” on antisemitism, flagrantly breaching electoral laws that require campaign material to be authorised. The Australian Electoral Commission has identified the culprit (said to have “acted alone”), but has been less forthcoming about whether it intends to litigate the issue after the election.

Making minority work

It seems premature to start talking, as some pollsters have, about a Labor majority after May 3. It remains entirely possible crossbenchers may hold the balance of power, and in doing so, exert significant influence on the next government.

In the third leaders’ debate, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, normally pragmatic, refused to countenance sharing power with other parties or MPs. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton made the surprising admission he would willingly make agreements with independent MPs in order to win.

He certainly wasn’t thinking of the “teals”, whom he so often berates as “Greens in disguise”. But there are others with whom he could easily work. Katter, Spender and Le are among Dutton’s preferred negotiating partners. Sharkie has already declared that in a hung parliament scenario, she would call Dutton first.

There is no rulebook for making a hung parliament work. In the past, new political configurations and coalitions have been born from hung parliaments, including the forerunners of the Liberal-National coalition.

Agreements can be limited to assurances of support on budget bills and confidence motions, or more expansive undertakings including policy commitments and institutional reform. In the event of a parliamentary impasse, crossbenchers can withdraw their support and allow a new minority government to be formed. The Australia Institute’s Frank Yuan recently pointed out seven changes of government have been triggered by the withdrawal of crossbench support. Indeed, during the second world war, two independent MPs effectively changed the government mid-term.

Much depends on the relationships forged at the start of a hung parliament. In his memoir, former New England MP Tony Windsor recounts the seventeen days of negotiations that followed the 2010 election. One of the factors that led him, along with follow independent Rob Oakeshott, to support the Labor Party was the “professionalism” and “respect” its leaders showed them. Former Coalition leader Tony Abbott, by way of contrast, gave Windsor the impression he was unlikely to endure minority government long enough to honour any of his commitments.

An especially aspirational crossbencher may even take on the role of Speaker. Wilkie and Sharkie have been recently touted as contenders for the role in a hung parliament scenario.

Reform hangs in the balance

Independents MPs would be likely to bring particular policy priorities to any minority government negotiation. Given the heated contests in independent electorates, truth in political advertising laws would probably be high on the agenda. Steggall has previously promoted reforms to Stop the Lies, but when the Albanese government chose not to progress its own version of this reform, independents signalled it would be high on their priority list in a hung parliament.

Crossbenchers – in both houses – might also treat recent changes to Australia’s electoral laws as a bargaining chip. Those changes, agreed between Labor and the Coalition in secret, promised to get big money out of politics by imposing donation and spending caps on everyone but with special caveats for major parties. Haines has declared these are “in her sights” if a hung parliament arises.

The menu of reform options gets wider from there. Spender has called for labour market and tax reforms that may not be palatable to all of her peers.

In the Senate (where “every day is minority government”), Pocock has outlined his firm demands for greater royalties from resources rents and reforms to negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions. Energy and climate policy, as well as support for rural Australia, would likely figure in a larger negotiation.

The crossbenchers would be hard-pressed to agree on everything, but there is strength and wisdom in numbers. Albanese and Dutton are both very experienced parliamentarians. Crossbenchers would likely need to put their heads together to exert maximum leverage.

If there is a hung parliament after May 3, history shows us it can be put to good use. The 43rd parliament, in which the Gillard government was in minority, was one of the most productive in recent history. It passed 561 bills including landmark measures such as the Clean Energy Future package and its centrepiece, a carbon price. It also passed needs-based funding for Australian schools, the National Disability Insurance Scheme and plenty more.

That seems a decent enough model for the next parliament to emulate. After all, as Harold Glowrey seemed to appreciate nearly a century ago, not everyone needs to be a cabinet minister to play their part in shaping the future.

Joshua Black is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at The Australia Institute.

– ref. Independents may build on Australia’s history of hung parliaments, if they can survive the campaign blues – https://theconversation.com/independents-may-build-on-australias-history-of-hung-parliaments-if-they-can-survive-the-campaign-blues-255313