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Category: Europe

  • MIL-OSI USA: Congressional Ukraine Caucus Co-Chairs Lead Bipartisan, Bicameral Push For Hard-Hitting Russia Sanctions

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur (OH-09)

    Washington, DC — Today, the Co-Chairs of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus — Representatives Marcy Kaptur (OH-09), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01), Mike Quigley (IL-05), Joe Wilson and (SC-02) introduced sweeping sanctions targeting Russia and any nation or actor complicit in sustaining its brutal war of aggression against Ukraine. Companion legislation was introduced in the Senate by Senators Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Lindsay Graham (R-SC), and a group of 48 bipartisan Senators.

    As a consequence of Putin’s continued, unbridled aggression against Ukraine, this legislation implements expansive sanctions on the Russian Federation’s government officials, as well as individuals, financial institutions, and other entities affiliated with or owned by the Putin regime. These sanctions shall be put in place if the Russian Federation continues to refuse to engage in good-faith negotiations for a just and lasting peace, or if it launches any further military operations that compromise Ukrainian sovereignty. Additionally, it enacts a bold 500 percent tariff on all imports to the United States from the Russian Federation, as well as from any countries that continue to fund Putin’s war machine by purchasing Russian-origin oil, uranium, or petroleum products.

    The sanctions package is designed to apply maximum pressure on the Kremlin and any enablers of its imperialist ambitions — underscoring that peace cannot be achieved while the Russian Federation continues to bomb Ukraine’s civilian population or while consenting countries continue to bankroll Putin’s regime.

    In a joint statement, the Co-Chairs said:

    “Democracy is strongest when we stand together to defend it. This legislation reflects a unified commitment — Republicans and Democrats, House and Senate — aligned in purpose to defend democracy, uphold national sovereignty, and confront the forces of tyranny that seek to destroy both.

    “Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine is not just a threat to one country’s borders — it is a direct challenge to the values we hold dear: freedom, self-determination, and the rule of law over the rule of force. Should Russia reject diplomacy and pursue further violence, the consequences will be swift and severe. And to those nations still financing Putin’s war by importing Russian oil, gas, uranium, or other commodities — this legislation makes clear: complicity comes at a cost.

    “These sanctions are not symbolic — they are a demonstration of principles in action. They send a clear message that when democracies are under siege, the United States will respond — not with hesitation, but with purpose.

    “We support not a pause, but an end to Russia’s attack on Ukraine and a path toward a lasting, just peace. A peace rooted in Ukraine’s sovereignty, that honors the sacrifices of its people and affirms their right to shape their own future.

    “We have been here before. In 1994, Ukraine gave up the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world in exchange for security guarantees that were ultimately broken. In 2014 and 2015, peace accords were signed — and shattered. Each time, the price was paid by the innocent.

    “We cannot allow history to repeat itself. The world is watching how we respond — and this time, our response must be unmistakable.

    “Peace through strength is not just a guiding principle — it is a responsibility. And we stand ready to uphold it.”

    You can find the full text of the legislation by clicking here. 

    # # #

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: New modelling reveals full impact of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs – with the US hit hardest

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Niven Winchester, Professor of Economics, Auckland University of Technology

    Getty Images

    We now have a clearer picture of Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and how they will affect other trading nations, including the United States itself.

    The US administration claims these tariffs on imports will reduce the US trade deficit and address what it views as unfair and non-reciprocal trade practices. Trump said this would

    forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America’s destiny was reclaimed.

    The “reciprocal” tariffs are designed to impose charges on other countries equivalent to half the costs they supposedly inflict on US exporters through tariffs, currency manipulation and non-tariff barriers levied on US goods.

    Each nation received a tariff number that will apply to most goods. Notable sectors exempt include steel, aluminium and motor vehicles, which are already subject to new tariffs.

    The minimum baseline tariff for each country is 10%. But many countries received higher numbers, including Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%), China (34%), Indonesia (32%), Taiwan (32%) and Switzerland (31%).

    The tariff number for China is in addition to an existing 20% tariff, so the total tariff applied to Chinese imports is 54%. Countries assigned 10% tariffs include Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.

    Canada and Mexico are exempt from the reciprocal tariffs, for now, but goods from those nations are subject to a 25% tariff under a separate executive order.

    Although some countries do charge higher tariffs on US goods than the US imposes on their exports, and the “Liberation Day” tariffs are allegedly only half the full reciprocal rate, the calculations behind them are open to challenge.

    For example, non-tariff measures are notoriously difficult to estimate and “subject to much uncertainty”, according to one recent study.

    GDP impacts with retaliation

    Other countries are now likely to respond with retaliatory tariffs on US imports. Canada (the largest destination for US exports), the EU and China have all said they will respond in kind.

    To estimate the impacts of this tit-for-tat trade standoff, I use a global model of the production, trade and consumption of goods and services. Similar simulation tools – known as “computable general equilibrium models” – are widely used by governments, academics and consultancies to evaluate policy changes.

    The first model simulates a scenario in which the US imposes reciprocal and other new tariffs, and other countries respond with equivalent tariffs on US goods. Estimated changes in GDP due to US reciprocal tariffs and retaliatory tariffs by other nations are shown in the table below.



    The tariffs decrease US GDP by US$438.4 billion (1.45%). Divided among the nation’s 126 million households, GDP per household decreases by $3,487 per year. That is larger than the corresponding decreases in any other country. (All figures are in US dollars.)

    Proportional GDP decreases are largest in Mexico (2.24%) and Canada (1.65%) as these nations ship more than 75% of their exports to the US. Mexican households are worse off by $1,192 per year and Canadian households by $2,467.

    Other nations that experience relatively large decreases in GDP include Vietnam (0.99%) and Switzerland (0.32%).

    Some nations gain from the trade war. Typically, these face relatively low US tariffs (and consequently also impose relatively low tariffs on US goods). New Zealand (0.29%) and Brazil (0.28%) experience the largest increases in GDP. New Zealand households are better off by $397 per year.

    Aggregate GDP for the rest of the world (all nations except the US) decreases by $62 billion.

    At the global level, GDP decreases by $500 billion (0.43%). This result confirms the well-known rule that trade wars shrink the global economy.

    GDP impacts without retaliation

    In the second scenario, the modelling depicts what happens if other nations do not react to the US tariffs. The changes in the GDP of selected countries are presented in the table below.



    Countries that face relatively high US tariffs and ship a large proportion of their exports to the US experience the largest proportional decreases in GDP. These include Canada, Mexico, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, Switzerland, South Korea and China.

    Countries that face relatively low new tariffs gain, with the UK experiencing the largest GDP increase.

    The tariffs decrease US GDP by $149 billion (0.49%) because the tariffs increase production costs and consumer prices in the US.

    Aggregate GDP for the rest of the world decreases by $155 billion, more than twice the corresponding decrease when there was retaliation. This indicates that the rest of the world can reduce losses by retaliating. At the same time, retaliation leads to a worse outcome for the US.

    Previous tariff announcements by the Trump administration dropped sand into the cogs of international trade. The reciprocal tariffs throw a spanner into the works. Ultimately, the US may face the largest damages.

    Niven Winchester has previously received funding from the Productivity Commission and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade to estimate the impacts of potential trade policies. He is affiliated with Motu Economic & Public Policy Research.

    – ref. New modelling reveals full impact of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs – with the US hit hardest – https://theconversation.com/new-modelling-reveals-full-impact-of-trumps-liberation-day-tariffs-with-the-us-hit-hardest-253320

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: EMA – Work still required to reduce workplace harm

    Source: EMA

    The move to greater use of Approved Codes of Practice (ACOPs) as tools for health and safety compliance will allow businesses to confidently mitigate hazards and risks, says the Employers and Manufacturers Association (EMA).
    Following the advice contained within these practical guidelines will give businesses confidence that ‘reasonably practicable’ steps have been met.
    “It hasn’t always been clear what ‘reasonably practicable’ actually means,” says EMA Manager of Employment Relations and Safety Paul Jarvie.
    “As the term underpins all the duties found within the Health and Safety at Work Act and related regulations, this clarity is welcome.”
    There are 23 existing ACOPs (asbestos removal, for example) and they allow industry and stakeholder development of best practice, meaning sectors can more quickly adapt to innovation and changes within their individual areas.
    These are typically industry-led, but new ones could have WorkSafe and other stakeholder involvement, with the Minister for Workplace Relations and Safety having final sign-off.
    The EMA believes this approach will ensure industry sectors have ownership of their workplace safety systems, while using industry insights to produce user-friendly and practical sets of guidelines to keep our workers safer.
    While the Minister has announced four recommended changes to the health and safety laws in the past few days, the EMA believes there is still more that could be done to bring our rates of workplace harm closer to jurisdictions such as Australia and the United Kingdom.
    “When assessed individually the recent changes make good sense, replacing complexity and confusion with more clarity for those affected,” says Jarvie.
    “Our workplace safety legislation is largely based on Australian legislation, which is in turn derived from the UK. But our results lag significantly, and we continue to harm or kill too many of our workers.
    “Both of those countries have far more detailed and precise regulation to support their legislation.
    “During the Minister’s recent roadshow, and in detailed submissions from industry and health and safety professionals, the systemic issues that still face businesses were clearly highlighted.
    “The EMA believes there remains a requirement for more detailed regulations, as in other similar countries, and we need a national strategic plan to make workplaces both safer and healthier.”
    The additional funding for new workplace inspectors of $2.7 million is a good step, but the cost of workplace harm is $4.9 billion annually.
    “We need to stabilise WorkSafe NZ and give it a clear mandate to work with businesses on making the workplace safer and to be a modern regulator – not just focussed on non-compliance and enforcement,” says Jarvie.
    “We have to accept that we are still not doing workplace health and safety well enough, and we need to be better – for the sake of our workforce and their families.”

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI USA: LEADER JEFFRIES: “THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS BOTH ARROGANT AND INCOMPETENT”

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Hakeem Jeffries (8th District of New York)

    Washington, DC – Today, Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries appeared on MSNBC’s Morning Joe where he emphasized that Democrats will continue to demand a serious investigation into the Trump administration’s reckless and dangerous security breach.

    JOE SCARBOROUGH: Let’s bring in right now the House Minority Leader, Democratic Congressman Hakeem Jeffries of New York. He sent a letter out yesterday to President Trump calling for the Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, to be fired. This morning, Leader, the details are even more shocking as Jeffrey released and, this morning, a chain, a text chain that was sent to him while he was sitting at a Safeway parking lot. The Secretary of Defense, using a commercial app, telling people on this chain, all of whom he did not know that this mission was a go. That F-18s were about to launch at this time, that the target terrorist was in sight. He then described when the second F-18s were launching, again all over a commercial app. He said this is definitely when the first bombs will begin dropping. And on and on and on. Your response? Just this stunning turn of events this morning.

    LEADER JEFFRIES: It’s a stunning breach of America’s national security. The lives of our servicemen and women were put into danger. And this is all being done by the person, the Secretary of Defense, who is charged with protecting the safety and national security of the American people. The problem is we could all see this coming, those who are paying close attention, as opposed to my Republican colleagues who are burying their heads in the sand. Pete Hegseth is the most unqualified person ever to lead the Department of Defense. Mitch McConnell knew it. Lisa Murkowski knew it. Susan Collins knew it. Democrats knew it, and we warned the Trump administration. And now the consequences are being felt. And this is a situation where the Trump administration is both arrogant and incompetent. That’s a toxic combination and American lives are at risk.

    MIKA BRZEZINSKI: Chris Matthews, you have the next question.

    CHRIS MATTHEWS: Congressman, we all know that the Republicans echo whatever President Trump says. They wait for him to speak and then they echo it. Now, back in 1960—I actually remember this—President Eisenhower had to deny that our U-2 flights over Russia, which began in Pakistan and flew to Norway. We were clearly violating their airspace at a very high level. He initially lied about it and said that wasn’t a case of a spy mission. And later he changed his mind and said it was. Do you think Trump, President Trump, is capable of recognizing that his people—Hegseth and Waltz—screwed up, that they went on the Signal line, that they opened it up to Jeffrey Goldberg, who is not one of their friends? They did it all themselves. He had nothing to do with this. Why won’t he come out like Nixon did and said, wait a minute, Haldeman and Ehrlichman screwed up. I’m firing them. Do you think there’s any chance Trump will come clean?

    LEADER JEFFRIES: The only chance is if the public pressure continues, is relentless and intensifies. During the Intel Committee hearing that’s going to take place today, you’re going to see House Democrats aggressively press the Trump administration and demand that there are consequences that occur. Ultimately, the buck stops with the President of the United States of America, which is why I made clear to President Trump yesterday in my correspondence that the Secretary of Defense should be fired immediately if he’s not man enough to own up to his mistakes and resign in disgrace.

    JOE SCARBOROUGH: Tina Brown is with us and has a question.

    TINA BROWN: Mr. Leader, my question also—somewhat similar to Chris’, but at what point do the, you know, do the Republicans themselves break ranks? I mean, is this going to be the one thing that means that they do, as Senator Warner said, find their voice. Is there anybody? Is there anybody there now who is going to lead some kind of, you know, pushback to Congress having been turned into a party of ones? I mean, what is going to happen now in the Caucus?

    LEADER JEFFRIES: Yeah. You know, privately, several do express concerns and shake their head on the Floor of the House of Representatives. But publicly, there’s been a lack of courage and that’s unfortunate, because the Congress should be a check and balance on an out-of-control executive branch. And the Trump administration is completely and totally out of control. But here’s the problem with the modern-day Republican Party. Facts don’t matter. They’ll lie with ease. Facts don’t matter. Hypocrisy is not a constraint to their behavior. They’ll say one thing and do another. All of them had their hair on fire when we’ve had other national security incidents in the past, particularly when there was concerns related to Democratic administrations, and now they’re burying their heads in the sand, because hypocrisy is never a constraint to the behavior of the modern-day Republican Party. And they’ve actually concluded that shamelessness is a superpower, which is why you’ve seen such a shameless reaction, an attack on Jeffrey Goldberg, as opposed to owning up to the horrific facts of this case.

    MIKA BRZEZINSKI: So, Leader Jeffries, if I could just lay out the four layers that I see in terms of a breach of security here and then follow it up with a question. Number one, this was done on Signal. Totally wrong to be doing on Signal. Number two, this included top levels of this administration in many locations around the world, including Russia, instead of inside a SCIF. Number three, they included Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic, and never noticed throughout the course of this entire chat. And then, four, there was an admission during a hearing yesterday that there are other similar chats like this out there. So with the administration saying that they are not concerned about this, nothing’s going to happen. Just a mistake, no big deal. Are our troops safe? Are we safe?

    LEADER JEFFRIES: There’s every reason to be concerned that the safety and security of our American troops across the world, many of whom are in conflict zones in dangerous places like the Middle East, are at risk. And that’s the reason why we need a full investigation. It should be swift. It should be serious. And it should be substantive. We’re demanding that. We have this Intel Committee hearing that’s getting ready to take place. And that is just the beginning of what we will continue to push for. We need a full and complete investigation and inquiry. These phones should be turned in to the national security professionals to try to figure out what else has been compromised, and what other types of reckless chats are taking place. You know, I’m a member of the Gang of Eight. It’s a high honor to be part of that. We have these classified conversations. We’re not even permitted to bring our phones into any secure location, let alone have conversations on our phones.

    JOE SCARBOROUGH: All right. House Minority Leader, Democratic Congressman Hakeem Jeffries of New York.

    MIKA BRZEZINSKI: Thank you.

    JOE SCARBOROUGH: Thank you so much for coming this morning.

    Full interview can be watched here. 

    ###

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Scottish Secretary focusses on jobs and investment in USA visit

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Press release

    Scottish Secretary focusses on jobs and investment in USA visit

    US investors invited to Edinburgh for a Global Investment Summit to help boost jobs and investment, putting more money back in people’s pockets.

    Jobs and investment in Scotland will be top of the agenda today [Thursday 3 April] when Scottish Secretary Ian Murray, Lord Mayor of London Alastair King and Scottish Financial Enterprise Chief Executive Sandy Begbie meet key sectors in a series of meetings in New York during Tartan Week.

    In a co-ordinated effort aimed at boosting growth in Scotland they will invite companies to attend the Scottish Investor Summit – organised by Scottish Financial Enterprise and The City of London Corporation – to be held in Edinburgh in October this year.

    The event will be key to encouraging inward investment in Scotland – investment which can boost Scotland’s economy, create well paid jobs and boost living standards, putting more money back in people’s pockets. 

    The New York meetings will showcase Scotland’s key strengths in financial services, clean energy and life sciences to international investors. This will be held at the UK Consul General’s residence in New York and at the offices of BlackRock, a global investment management corporation with a significant presence in Scotland. 

    Secretary of State for Scotland Ian Murray said: 

    “At a time when we are celebrating Scotland on the international stage, we want to highlight the exceptional investment opportunities in innovative industries. These meetings and roundtables are at the heart of Brand Scotland, selling the nation on the global stage. By strengthening these international partnerships through our Plan for Change, we’re laying the groundwork for the Edinburgh Global Investment Summit.”

    Lord Mayor of London Alastair King said:

    “Tartan week is not just an opportunity to celebrate the strong cultural and economic links between Scotland and the US, it is also a chance to deepen them further especially in financial services. That is why I am in New York speaking to major US businesses and investors and promoting the forthcoming Scottish Investment Summit in Edinburgh in October

    “The theme of my mayoralty is ‘growth unleashed’, aiming to reignite the City’s appetite for positive risk and fully leverage the white heat of new technology to fuel economic growth across the United Kingdom. One of the best ways to do that is through greater cooperation with the US in financial services – which is a major part of both the Scottish and wider UK economy.”

    Chief Executive of Scottish Financial Enterprise Sandy Begbie CBE said:

    “Tartan week is an excellent example of the soft power which Scotland commands across the globe, but especially in the US. These roundtables provide just a small taste of the investment opportunity in Scotland.

    “The Scottish investment summit later this year will showcase in detail the very best of Scotland’s financial services, renewables and life science to global investors. This coupled with opportunities to engage with government stakeholders and investment prospects highlight the unique opportunity the summit will bring.”

    The Scottish investment summit, to be held in Edinburgh in October, will bring together major global investors, UK industry leaders, higher education institutions, and government representatives. Around 150 senior-level attendees are expected at the summit, with at least half representing significant global investors. 

    The summit will showcase the investments that have already been made, as well as the rationale behind why firms made the decision to invest in Scotland and what have been the returns and benefits to them as a result. It will also provide opportunities for investors to engage with investment prospects that currently exist in our investment pipeline, as well as government and regulatory stakeholders.

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    Published 3 April 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI USA: House Foreign Affairs Committee Ranking Member Meeks Statement on Trump Administration’s Unconstitutional Abolishing of USAID

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Gregory W Meeks (5th District of New York)

    Washington, DC – Representative Gregory W. Meeks, Ranking Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, today issued the following statement condemning the Trump administration for unilaterally shutting down the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) without Congressional approval.

    “For two months, the Trump administration has chaotically gutted USAID, ignoring Congress and leaving urgent questions unanswered, and now has notified that it plans to subsume the agency under State. Nothing about this process has been genuine or in good faith. 

    “The consequences of this reckless decision are already evident; China and Russia are already filling in the gaps created by this administration’s reckless assault on U.S. foreign assistance. While the administration claims it will retain some global health and humanitarian assistance functions, it is jettisoning critical work USAID has been doing – at Congress’s direction – for decades in sectors such as education, good governance, crisis stabilization, agriculture, and economic growth. Furthermore, these plans violate the law, which requires that USAID exist as a separate entity. Presidents are not kings, and if the administration wishes to change the law, the GOP, which controls both the House and Senate, should pass one.  

    “By firing all USAID employees and kneecapping the programs that remain, this administration lays bare its true intention: to withdraw the United States from its global leadership role with as much cruelty and disruption as possible.”

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: New research reveals chemical secrets of Earth’s crust 4.5 billion years ago

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simon Turner, Professor, School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University

    The Eurasian and North American tectonic plates in Thingvellir National Park, Iceland. Nido Huebl/Shutterstock

    Earth is the only known planet which has plate tectonics today. The constant movement of these giant slabs of rock over the planet’s magma creates continents – and may have even helped create life.

    In a new paper published in Nature today, colleagues and I reveal secrets of Earth’s crust 4.5 billion years ago. In the process, we also provide a new way to approach one of the biggest enduring scientific mysteries: when did plate tectonics begin?

    Intimately connected to the development of life

    Earth is roughly 4.5 billion years old. Some scientists argue that in its early form, the planet lacked plate tectonics and may have instead been characterised by a stagnant crust (imagine a fixed lid) – similar to the one on Mars.

    Others say it may have been characterised by episodic, stop-start tectonics. The latter might have been triggered by major meteorite impacts that were common early on, but declined in number over time.

    Plate tectonics is intimately linked to the composition of the oceans and atmosphere because the constant movement of the plates also moves carbon and other elements around. It’s also closely linked to how heat is released from Earth’s interior.

    Because of this, plate tectonics is also thought to be intimately connected to the development of life on Earth.

    One of the biggest enduring scientific mysteries is when plate tectonics began.
    Kolonko/Shutterstock

    A distinctive chemical fingerprint

    The movement of tectonic plates produces volcanic activity at their boundaries. But at island arcs, such as the so-called Ring of Fire which encircles the Pacific Ocean, this volcanism has a distinctive chemical fingerprint nearly identical to that of today’s average continental crust. For example, there is a depletion of the element niobium relative to the rare earth elements.

    Because of this, scientists have long thought that the key to determining when plate tectonics began is to find the first appearance of this fingerprint in ancient rocks.

    Unfortunately, the actions of plate tectonics also compress, melt and reprocess the rocks of the Earth’s crust. As a result, ancient rocks are very rare and there are probably none now remaining from the Hadean eon (4.5–4 billion years ago).

    Interestingly, despite much effort over many decades, the results of such attempts to determine the timing of the onset of plate tectonics have resulted in age estimates ranging from 800 million to 4.5 billion years.

    Such a large range suggests a major problem in the approach.

    A new approach

    Beginning in early 2024, the research team I led tried a new approach. The team was made up of four other researchers from the University of Oxford, Curtin University, the University of Technology Queensland and the University of Lyon.

    We used mathematical models to simulate the period of time when Earth’s core was still forming and its surface comprised an ocean of bubbling, molten rock. Specifically, we investigated the degree of melting of Earth’s early mantle – and the behaviour of chemical elements during this process.

    Our results showed Earth’s earliest crust – known as the protocrust – that formed during the Hadean eon, would have a chemical composition identical to that of the modern average continental crust.

    For example, niobium becomes extracted into metal and removed into Earth’s core, whereas the rare earth elements rise to the surface in the magmas that crystallise to form the crust.

    The movement of tectonic plates produces volcanic activity at their boundaries.
    Allen.G/Shutterstock

    The chemical fingerprint was always there

    This discovery has major implications for how we think about Earth’s earliest history. It means the distinctive chemical fingerprint of the continental crust was always there – and only recycled at island arcs ever since.

    It follows that this signature cannot be used to determine when plate tectonics began, explaining why previous studies could not reach any consensus.

    Although major meteorite impacts would have led to melting and reprocessing of the earliest crust, such processes would only have recycled the continental chemical fingerprint, not created it.

    Some of these early large impacts may have also initiated periodic subduction – the downward and sideways movement – of tectonic plates that eventually fell into the continuous, self-sustaining pattern we observe today. However, our study shows that determining when this transition occurred is more complex than long thought and will require new research methods.

    Further modelling of the geodynamics of Earth’s early crust is needed to better understand when it became unstable and started to subduct. So too is a reappraisal of the implications of this for the evolution of the Earth and the ultimate development of life.

    This work also gives us a new way to think about how continents and life might form on other rocky planets.

    Simon Turner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. New research reveals chemical secrets of Earth’s crust 4.5 billion years ago – https://theconversation.com/new-research-reveals-chemical-secrets-of-earths-crust-4-5-billion-years-ago-253543

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI USA: Reps. Cleaver, Scott, and Williams Oppose Trump Administration Efforts to Hurt Consumers by Merging the FDIC with other Banking Regulators

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Emanuel Cleaver II (5th District Missouri)

    (Washington, D.C.) – Today, U.S. Representatives Emanuel Cleaver, II (D-MO), David Scott (D-GA), and Nikema Williams (D-GA), members of the House Financial Services Committee, led 50 House Democrats in sending a letter to Travis Hill, the Acting Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), opposing the Trump Administration’s effort to undermine the agency’s critical role of ensuring financial stability and protecting consumers from financial harm.

    The letter follows ongoing reports that the Trump Administration and Elon Musk are planning to move forward with a proposed merger of the FDIC with other key banking regulators, including the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), and the Federal Reserve’s supervisory division. In recent weeks, the Administration fired hundreds of bank examiners, failed to put forward Acting Director Hill’s nomination to officially lead the agency before the U.S. Senate, and reportedly asked the Treasury Department to draft recommendations streamlining the role of other banking regulators to exert more control over them.

    “Since the Great Depression, the FDIC has played a vital role in supporting the wellbeing of American families and the economy, promoting stability and confidence in the banking system and guaranteeing that hard-earned deposits are protected,” said Congressman Cleaver. “Having been in Congress during the 2008 financial crisis, I’ve seen the horrible consequences that follow reckless deregulation and inadequate oversight of America’s financial system. While I pray to never see such an economic collapse again, the Trump Administration’s efforts to put special interests over the interests of everyday Americans by gutting the FDIC and those responsible for ensuring our financial system is sound leave me properly petrified. It’s imperative that the Acting FDIC Chair protect the mission and integrity of the independent agency before another tragedy occurs.”

    “The notion that the President would consider merging or consolidating the FDIC is an outrageous, reckless, and profoundly irresponsible attack on the financial security of millions of Americans,” said Congressman David Scott. “The FDIC has been the backbone of our banking system for nearly a century, ensuring that depositors’ money is safe and protected against bank failures. To dismantle the institution by firing the very people tasked with overseeing bank soundness and safety, is to invite chaos, economic instability, and financial ruin for working families and small businesses across Georgia and the nation. Acting Chair Travis Hill must immediately rebuff any attempt to blunt or politicize the mission of the FDIC, oppose the mass layoff of key examiners and reaffirm his commitment to the agency’s independence.”

    “Once again, President Trump is showing his laughable ignorance of our financial system,” said Congresswoman Williams. “The FDIC’s independence is essential to protecting confidence and stability in our banking system. Chairman Hill’s willingness to entertain consolidating the FDIC with other banking regulators, while it is already understaffed, is a direct threat to that stability. Dismantling this agency is another thinly veiled attempt to attack working families, many who look like my constituents in Atlanta, and a deliberate attempt to widen the racial wealth gap.”

    “The National Treasury Employees Union (NTEU), representing the employees at FDIC, OCC and CFPB, is grateful for Representatives Scott, Cleaver, Williams and others for their letter to Acting Chair Hill.  The current Administration is playing reckless games with the bank deposits of hard-working Americans.  Firing hundreds of experienced bank examiners puts every American’s bank accounts at risk.” Doreen Greenwald, National President, National Treasury Employees Union.

    “It is gravely misguided and dangerous to undermine the independence of the FDIC which has tirelessly and capably protected depositors and the economy for almost a century. People rely on the FDIC seal of approval and communities across the country rely on the FDIC to preserve the safety and soundness of local banks.” Patrick Woodall, Managing Director of Policy, Americans for Financial Reform.

    The letter was endorsed by Americans for Financial Reform (AFR), the National Treasury Employees Union (NTEU) and Public Citizen.

    The letter was cosigned by Representatives Becca Balint (D-VT), Joyce Beatty (D-OH), Brendan Boyle (D-PA), Shontel Brown (D-OH), André Carson (D-IN), Troy Carter (D-LA), Greg Casar (D-TX), Sean Casten (D-IL), Gilbert Cisneros (D-CA), Herbert Conaway (D-NJ), Danny Davis (D-IL), Dwight Evans (D-PA), Cleo Fields (D-LA), Bill Foster (D-IL), Sylvia Garcia (D-TX), Dan Goldman (D-NY), Al Green (D-TX), Glenn Ivey (D-MD), Jonathan Jackson (D-IL), Pramila Jayapal (D-WA), Hank Johnson (D-GA), Julie Johnson (D-TX), Robin Kelly (D-IL), Ro Khanna (D-CA), George Latimer (D-NY), Stephen Lynch (D-MA), Lucy McBath (D-GA), Jim McGovern (D-MA), Gregory Meeks (D-NY), Jerrold Nadler (D-NY), Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Brittany Pettersen (D-CO), Ayanna Pressley (D-MA), Mike Quigley (D-IL), Delia Ramirez (D-IL), Deborah Ross (D-NC), Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), Terri Sewell (D-AL), Bennie Thompson (D-MS), Mike Thompson (D-CA), Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), Jill Tokuda (D-HI), Juan Vargas (D-CA), Nydia Velázquez (D-NY), and Frederica Wilson (D-FL).

    The official letter from lawmakers is available here.

     

    Emanuel Cleaver, II is the U.S. Representative for Missouri’s Fifth Congressional District, which includes Kansas City, Independence, Lee’s Summit, Raytown, Grandview, Sugar Creek, Greenwood, Blue Springs, North Kansas City, Gladstone, and Claycomo. He is a member of the exclusive House Financial Services Committee and Ranking Member of the House Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance.

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI USA: Senator Reverend Warnock Issues Statement on Potential Harm President Trump’s Reckless Tariffs Will put on Price of Groceries, Everyday Goods

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator Reverend Raphael Warnock – Georgia

    Senator Reverend Warnock Issues Statement on Potential Harm President Trump’s Reckless Tariffs Will put on Price of Groceries, Everyday Goods

    Today, President Trump announced the rollout of a sweeping set of tariffs that will raise the cost of everyday goods for ordinary Georgians

    The tariffs will increase costs on many consumer purchases, including cars and groceries, and risk the loss of Georgia manufacturing jobs

    Today’s announcement will directly harm Georgia’s agriculture and manufacturing sectors

    Senator Reverend Warnock is the Ranking Member of the Senate Finance Subcommittee on International Trade, Customs, and Global Competitiveness

    Senator Reverend Warnock: “Today’s tariffs announcement won’t make Georgians’ lives easier or more affordable, but instead will make life more expensive”

    Washington, D.C. – Today, U.S. Senator Reverend Raphael Warnock (D-GA), ranking member of the Senate Finance Subcommittee on International Trade, Customs, and Global Competitiveness, issued the following statement after President Trump rolled out a sweeping set of tariffs that raise the prices of everyday goods, like groceries.

    “I was sent to the Senate to advocate on behalf of Georgians from across the state, to help bring down their everyday costs, to fight to protect their jobs, and to help more people afford things like a car and a home.”

    “Today’s tariffs announcement won’t make Georgians’ lives easier or more affordable, but instead will make life more expensive.”

    “The chaos of these tariffs will raise the prices of cars, groceries, housing, and so much more, all while putting American farmers, the backbone of our state’s economy, in the middle of an international trade war that will only lead to reduced access to foreign markets and even shuttered farms.”

    “Tariffs can be a good tool to protect American jobs and force other nations to play by the rules. But when they are imposed in such an unpredictable, chaotic, and sweeping manner, it is the average American who will bear the brunt in the fallout of these actions.”

    “I will continue to fight back on any actions that put Georgia and American families in overwhelmingly burdensome financial situations. These tariffs won’t help anybody and will wreck our economy.”

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI USA: Senator Reverend Warnock Brings GA Seniors’ Concerns Directly to Social Security Admin Nominee, Uplifts Hundreds of Stories from Georgians

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator Reverend Raphael Warnock – Georgia

    Senator Reverend Warnock Brings GA Seniors’ Concerns Directly to Social Security Admin Nominee, Uplifts Hundreds of Stories from Georgians

    Senator Reverend Warnock collected and submitted over 250 questions from Georgians to Social Security Administration (SSA) nominee Frank Bisignano about how he would protect Social Security if confirmed

    The questions were compiled from over 500 stories sent in from Georgia seniors and family members who are deeply worried about the future of Social Security

    Bisignano is required to answer questions before his final confirmation vote out of the Senate Finance Committee

    Last week, Senator Reverend Warnock questioned Bisignano during his confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Finance Committee

    Senator Reverend Warnock: “Georgians had questions about the Trump administration’s overall disdain and callousness toward people who depend on their social security benefits to live”

    Washington, D.C. – Today, U.S. Senator Reverend Raphael Warnock (D-GA) submitted over 250 questions from concerned Georgians to Social Security Administration (SSA) nominee Frank Bisignano to answer following his confirmation hearing before the Senate Finance Committee. The 261 questions were pulled from over 500 responses from Georgia seniors and family members who have concerns about the future of social security in the state.

    “Georgians asked about this nominee’s plans to ensure their benefits are not disrupted by DOGE. They asked about Elon Musk accessing their personal data. They asked about disability wait times and approval backlogs. But by far most Georgians had questions about the Trump administration’s overall disdain and callousness toward people who depend on their social security benefits to live,” said Senator Warnock when submitting the questions for the record.

    During last week’s hearing, Senator Warnock questioned Bisignano on his commitment to keep all field offices in the state open for Georgia seniors and increase staffing at Georgia field offices. Several weeks before the hearing, SSA announced it was making access to benefits more difficult for seniors, no longer allowing individuals to apply for benefits or request a direct deposit change over the phone. These and other proposed changes at the SSA could lead to an increase of 7 million visits to field offices per year across the country, and an estimated 200,000 additional visits in Georgia alone. Senator Warnock remains committed to ensuring Georgians can easily and efficiently access their benefits that they have paid into over their lifetime. 

    Questions submitted to Bisignano are available HERE:

    Bisignano’s responses are available HERE:

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Rule of Two for faster access to medicines

    Source: New Zealand Government

    Associate Health Minister David Seymour is welcoming Cabinet’s decision to enable medicines to be approved in less than 30 days if the product has approval from two recognised overseas jurisdictions.   
    This change is included in the Medicines Amendment Bill (the Bill), which amends the Medicines Act 1981. The pathway will be in operation by early 2026.
    The policy will start with Australia, the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Singapore and Switzerland, as recognised countries. These are the main countries Medsafe currently recognises. 
    “Faster access to medicines has always been a priority of mine. For many New Zealanders, pharmaceuticals are life or death, or the difference between a life of pain and suffering or living freely,” Mr Seymour says. 
    “This change will increase access to medicines for Kiwis by introducing a streamlined verification pathway for medicines. People will access new treatments more quickly. This is committed to in the ACT-National and National-NZ First coalition agreements. 
    “Cabinet has agreed to give the responsible Minister powers to regulate the Rule of Two. That means I will be outlining the proposed regulatory pathway for industry and the public to feedback on via the Select Committee process. This system should be as straightforward as possible to allow New Zealanders the greatest level of access to innovative medicine possible. 
    “New cars are acceptable for the New Zealand market if they meet at least one of several foreign standards. We can apply the same principle to medicines, if other jurisdictions have already done the work and can ensure the products’ safety, we don’t need to delay patient’s access by doing the exact same tests,” Mr Seymour says. 
    “This is a common-sense efficiency that costs nothing. It helps Kiwis in need. It can shave months off the approval process. A perfect example of this was with a treatment for asthma which could have been approved by the end of 2022 under this pathway, but was not approved until 16 months later in May 2024. 
    “This Government is making medicines access a priority because it leads to better patient outcomes. So far, we have:

    Changed Pharmac’s process so it can assess a funding application at the same time as Medsafe is assessing the application for regulatory approval
    Allocated Pharmac its largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, and a $604 million uplift to give Pharmac the financial support it needs to carry out its functions – negotiating the best deals for medicine for New Zealanders
    Made patient voice a crucial consideration in Pharmac’s funding decisions
    Put pseudoephedrine back on the shelves of pharmacies

    “We’re committed to ensuring that the regulatory system for pharmaceuticals is not unreasonably holding back access. It will lead to more Kiwis being able to access the medicines they need to live a fulfilling life.”
    Notes to editors: 
    Draft criteria for regulatory pathway rules will likely relate to ensuring that:

    manufacturing sites associated with product have evidence of Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) compliance which is valid to Medsafe’s satisfaction,
    if a product is a generic or biosimilar prescription medicine, the innovator or reference product is identical to that approved for New Zealand.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI USA News: Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Declares National Emergency to Increase our Competitive Edge, Protect our Sovereignty, and Strengthen our National and Economic Security

    Source: The White House

    PURSUING RECIPROCITY TO REBUILD THE ECONOMY AND RESTORE NATIONAL AND ECONOMIC SECURITY: Today, President Donald J. Trump declared that foreign trade and economic practices have created a national emergency, and his order imposes responsive tariffs to strengthen the international economic position of the United States and protect American workers.

    • Large and persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits have led to the hollowing out of our manufacturing base; resulted in a lack of incentive to increase advanced domestic manufacturing capacity; undermined critical supply chains; and rendered our defense-industrial base dependent on foreign adversaries.
    • President Trump is invoking his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA) to address the national emergency posed by the large and persistent trade deficit that is driven by the absence of reciprocity in our trade relationships and other harmful policies like currency manipulation and exorbitant value-added taxes (VAT) perpetuated by other countries.
    • Using his IEEPA authority, President Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all countries.
      • This will take effect April 5, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT.
    • President Trump will impose an individualized reciprocal higher tariff on the countries with which the United States has the largest trade deficits. All other countries will continue to be subject to the original 10% tariff baseline.
      • This will take effect April 9, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT.
    • These tariffs will remain in effect until such a time as President Trump determines that the threat posed by the trade deficit and underlying nonreciprocal treatment is satisfied, resolved, or mitigated.
    • Today’s IEEPA Order also contains modification authority, allowing President Trump to increase the tariff if trading partners retaliate or decrease the tariffs if trading partners take significant steps to remedy non-reciprocal trade arrangements and align with the United States on economic and national security matters.
    • Some goods will not be subject to the Reciprocal Tariff. These include: (1) articles subject to 50 USC 1702(b); (2) steel/aluminum articles and autos/auto parts already subject to Section 232 tariffs; (3) copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber articles; (4) all articles that may become subject to future Section 232 tariffs; (5) bullion; and (6) energy and other certain minerals that are not available in the United States.
    • For Canada and Mexico, the existing fentanyl/migration IEEPA orders remain in effect, and are unaffected by this order. This means USMCA compliant goods will continue to see a 0% tariff, non-USMCA compliant goods will see a 25% tariff, and non-USMCA compliant energy and potash will see a 10% tariff. In the event the existing fentanyl/migration IEEPA orders are terminated, USMCA compliant goods would continue to receive preferential treatment, while non-USMCA compliant goods would be subject to a 12% reciprocal tariff.

     
    TAKING BACK OUR ECONOMIC SOVEREIGNTY: President Trump refuses to let the United States be taken advantage of and believes that tariffs are necessary to ensure fair trade, protect American workers, and reduce the trade deficit—this is an emergency.

    • He is the first President in modern history to stand strong for hardworking Americans by asking other countries to follow the golden rule on trade: Treat us like we treat you.
    • Pernicious economic policies and practices of our trading partners undermine our ability to produce essential goods for the public and the military, threatening national security.
    • U.S. companies, according to internal estimates, pay over $200 billion per year in value-added taxes (VAT) to foreign governments—a “double-whammy” on U.S. companies who pay the tax at the European border, while European companies don’t pay tax to the United States on the income from their exports to the U.S.
    • The annual cost to the U.S. economy of counterfeit goods, pirated software, and theft of trade secrets is between $225 billion and $600 billion. Counterfeit products not only pose a significant risk to U.S. competitiveness, but also threaten the security, health, and safety of Americans, with the global trade in counterfeit pharmaceuticals estimated at $4.4 billion and linked to the distribution of deadly fentanyl-laced drugs.
      • This imbalance has fueled a large and persistent trade deficit in both industrial and agricultural goods, led to offshoring of our manufacturing base, empowered non-market economies like China, and hurt America’s middle class and small towns. 
      • President Biden squandered the agricultural trade surplus inherited from President Trump’s first term, turning it into a projected all-time high deficit of $49 billion.
    • The current global trading order allows those using unfair trade practices to get ahead, while those playing by the rules get left behind.
    • In 2024, our trade deficit in goods exceeded $1.2 trillion—an unsustainable crisis ignored by prior leadership.
    • “Made in America” is not just a tagline—it’s an economic and national security priority of this Administration. The President’s reciprocal trade agenda means better-paying American jobs making beautiful American-made cars, appliances, and other goods.
    • These tariffs seek to address the injustices of global trade, re-shore manufacturing, and drive economic growth for the American people.
    • Reciprocal trade is America First trade because it increases our competitive edge, protects our sovereignty, and strengthens our national and economic security.
    • These tariffs adjust for the unfairness of ongoing international trade practices, balance our chronic goods trade deficit, provide an incentive for re-shoring production to the United States, and provide our foreign trading partners with an opportunity to rebalance their trade relationships with the United States.

     
    REPRIORITIZING U.S. MANUFACTURING: President Trump recognizes that increasing domestic manufacturing is critical to U.S. national security.

    • In 2023, U.S. manufacturing output as a share of global manufacturing output was 17.4%, down from 28.4% in 2001.
    • The decline in manufacturing output has reduced U.S. manufacturing capacity.
      • The need to maintain a resilient domestic manufacturing capacity is particularly acute in advanced sectors like autos, shipbuilding, pharmaceuticals, transport equipment, technology products, machine tools, and basic and fabricated metals, where loss of capacity could permanently weaken U.S. competitiveness.
    • U.S. stockpiles of military goods are too low to be compatible with U.S. national defense interests.
      • If the U.S. wishes to maintain an effective security umbrella to defend its citizens and homeland, as well as allies and partners, it needs to have a large upstream manufacturing and goods-producing ecosystem.
      • This includes developing new manufacturing technologies in critical sectors like bio-manufacturing, batteries, and microelectronics to support defense needs.
    • Increased reliance on foreign producers for goods has left the U.S. supply chain vulnerable to geopolitical disruption and supply shocks.
      • This vulnerability was exposed during the COVID-19 pandemic, and later with Houthi attacks on Middle East shipping.
    • From 1997 to 2024, the U.S. lost around 5 million manufacturing jobs and experienced one of the largest drops in manufacturing employment in history.

     
    ADDRESSING TRADE IMBALANCES: President Trump is working to level the playing field for American businesses and workers by confronting the unfair tariff disparities and non-tariff barriers imposed by other countries.

    • For generations, countries have taken advantage of the United States, tariffing us at higher rates. For example:
      • The United States imposes a 2.5% tariff on passenger vehicle imports (with internal combustion engines), while the European Union (10%) and India (70%) impose much higher duties on the same product. 
      • For networking switches and routers, the United States imposes a 0% tariff, but India (10-20%) levies higher rates.
      • Brazil (18%) and Indonesia (30%) impose a higher tariff on ethanol than does the United States (2.5%). 
      • For rice in the husk, the U.S. imposes a tariff of 2.7%, while India (80%), Malaysia (40%), and Turkey (31%) impose higher rates. 
      • Apples enter the United States duty-free, but not so in Turkey (60.3%) and India (50%).
    • The United States has one of the lowest simple average most-favored-nation (MFN) tariff rates in the world at 3.3%, while many of our key trading partners like Brazil (11.2%), China (7.5%), the European Union (5%), India (17%), and Vietnam (9.4%) have simple average MFN tariff rates that are significantly higher.
    • Similarly, non-tariff barriers—meant to limit the quantity of imports/exports and protect domestic industries—also deprive U.S. manufacturers of reciprocal access to markets around the world. For example:
      • China’s non-market policies and practices have given China global dominance in key manufacturing industries, decimating U.S. industry. Between 2001 and 2018, these practices contributed to the loss of 3.7 million U.S. jobs due to the growth of the U.S.-China trade deficit, displacing workers and undermining American competitiveness while threatening U.S. economic and national security by increasing our reliance on foreign-controlled supply chains for critical industries as well as everyday goods.
      • India imposes their own uniquely burdensome and/or duplicative testing and certification requirements in sectors such as chemicals, telecom products, and medical devices that make it difficult or costly for American companies to sell their products in India. If these barriers were removed, it is estimated that U.S. exports would increase by at least $5.3 billion annually.
      • Countries including China, Germany, Japan, and South Korea have pursued policies that suppress the domestic consumption power of their own citizens to artificially boost the competitiveness of their export products. Such policies include regressive tax systems, low or unenforced penalties for environmental degradation, and policies intended to suppress worker wages relative to productivity.
      • Certain countries, like Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, and Vietnam, restrict or prohibit the importation of remanufactured goods, restricting market access for U.S. exporters while also stifling efforts to promote sustainability by discouraging trade in like-new and resource-efficient products. If these barriers were removed, it is estimated that U.S. exports would increase by at least $18 billion annually.
      • The UK maintains non-science-based standards that severely restrict U.S. exports of safe, high-quality beef and poultry products.
      • Indonesia maintains local content requirements across a broad range of sectors, complex import licensing regimes, and, starting this year, will require natural resource firms to onshore all export revenue for transactions worth $250,000 or more.
      • Argentina has banned imports of U.S. live cattle since 2002 due to unsubstantiated concerns regarding bovine spongiform encephalopathy.  The United States has a $223 million trade deficit with Argentina in beef and beef products.
      • For decades, South Africa has imposed animal health restrictions that are not scientifically justified on U.S. pork products, permitting a very limited list of U.S. pork exports to enter South Africa. South Africa also heavily restricts U.S. poultry exports through high tariffs, anti-dumping duties, and unjustified animal health restrictions. These barriers have contributed to a 78% decline in U.S. poultry exports to South Africa, from $89 million in 2019 to $19 million 2024.
      • U.S. automakers face a variety of non-tariff barriers that impede access to the Japanese and Korean automotive markets, including non-acceptance of certain U.S. standards, duplicative testing and certification requirements, and transparency issues. Due to these non-reciprocal practices, the U.S. automotive industry loses out on an additional $13.5 billion in annual exports to Japan and access to a larger import market share in Korea—all while the U.S. trade deficit with Korea more than tripled from 2019 to 2024.
    • Monetary tariffs and non-monetary tariffs are two distinct types of trade barriers that governments use to regulate imports and exports. President Trump is countering both through reciprocal tariffs to protect American workers and industries from these unfair practices.

     
    THE GOLDEN RULE FOR OUR GOLDEN AGE: Today’s action simply asks other countries to treat us like we treat them. It’s the Golden Rule for Our Golden Age.

    • Access to the American market is a privilege, not a right.
    • The United States will no longer put itself last on matters of international trade in exchange for empty promises.
    • Reciprocal tariffs are a big part of why Americans voted for President Trump—it was a cornerstone of his campaign from the start.
      • Everyone knew he’d push for them once he got back in office; it’s exactly what he promised, and it’s a key reason he won the election.
    • These tariffs are central to President Trump’s plan to reverse the economic damage left by President Biden and put America on a path to a new golden age.
      • This builds on his broader economic agenda of energy competitiveness, tax cuts, no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security benefits, and deregulation to boost American prosperity.

     
    TARIFFS WORK: Studies have repeatedly shown that tariffs can be an effective tool for reducing or eliminating threats that impair U.S. national security and achieving economic and strategic objectives.

    • A 2024 study on the effects of President Trump’s tariffs in his first term found that they “strengthened the U.S. economy” and “led to significant reshoring” in industries like manufacturing and steel production.
    • A 2023 report by the U.S. International Trade Commission that analyzed the effects of Section 232 and 301 tariffs on more than $300 billion of U.S. imports found that the tariffs reduced imports from China and effectively stimulated more U.S. production of the tariffed goods, with very minor effects on prices.
    • According to the Economic Policy Institute, the tariffs implemented by President Trump during his first term “clearly show[ed] no correlation with inflation” and only had a temporary effect on overall price levels.
    • An analysis from the Atlantic Council found that “tariffs would create new incentives for US consumers to buy US-made products.”
    • Former Biden Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen affirmed last year that tariffs do not raise prices: “I don’t believe that American consumers will see any meaningful increase in the prices that they face.”
    • A 2024 economic analysis found that a global tariff of 10% would grow the economy by $728 billion, create 2.8 million jobs, and increase real household incomes by 5.7%.

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI USA News: Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits

    Source: The White House

    class=”has-text-align-left”>By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.)(IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.)(NEA), section 604 of the Trade Act of 1974, as amended (19 U.S.C. 2483), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, 

    I, DONALD J. TRUMP, President of the United States of America, find that underlying conditions, including a lack of reciprocity in our bilateral trade relationships, disparate tariff rates and non-tariff barriers, and U.S. trading partners’ economic policies that suppress domestic wages and consumption, as indicated by large and persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits, constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and economy of the United States.  That threat has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States in the domestic economic policies of key trading partners and structural imbalances in the global trading system.  I hereby declare a national emergency with respect to this threat.

    On January 20, 2025, I signed the America First Trade Policy Presidential Memorandum directing my Administration to investigate the causes of our country’s large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods, including the economic and national security implications and risks resulting from such deficits, and to undertake a review of, and identify, any unfair trade practices by other countries.  On February 13, 2025, I signed a Presidential Memorandum entitled “Reciprocal Trade and Tariffs,” that directed further review of our trading partners’ non-reciprocal trading practices, and noted the relationship between non-reciprocal practices and the trade deficit.  On April 1, 2025, I received the final results of those investigations, and I am taking action today based on those results.  

    Large and persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits have led to the hollowing out of our manufacturing base; inhibited our ability to scale advanced domestic manufacturing capacity; undermined critical supply chains; and rendered our defense-industrial base dependent on foreign adversaries.  Large and persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits are caused in substantial part by a lack of reciprocity in our bilateral trade relationships.  This situation is evidenced by disparate tariff rates and non-tariff barriers that make it harder for U.S. manufacturers to sell their products in foreign markets.  It is also evidenced by the economic policies of key U.S. trading partners insofar as they suppress domestic wages and consumption, and thereby demand for U.S. exports, while artificially increasing the competitiveness of their goods in global markets.  These conditions have given rise to the national emergency that this order is intended to abate and resolve.

    For decades starting in 1934, U.S. trade policy has been organized around the principle of reciprocity.  The Congress directed the President to secure reduced reciprocal tariff rates from key trading partners first through bilateral trade agreements and later under the auspices of the global trading system.  Between 1934 and 1945, the executive branch negotiated and signed 32 bilateral reciprocal trade agreements designed to lower tariff rates on a reciprocal basis.  After 1947 through 1994, participating countries engaged in eight rounds of negotiation, which resulted in the General Agreements on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and seven subsequent tariff reduction rounds. 

    However, despite a commitment to the principle of reciprocity, the trading relationship between the United States and its trading partners has become highly unbalanced, particularly in recent years.  The post-war international economic system was based upon three incorrect assumptions:  first, that if the United States led the world in liberalizing tariff and non-tariff barriers the rest of the world would follow; second, that such liberalization would ultimately result in more economic convergence and increased domestic consumption among U.S. trading partners converging towards the share in the United States; and third, that as a result, the United States would not accrue large and persistent goods trade deficits. 

    This framework set in motion events, agreements, and commitments that did not result in reciprocity or generally increase domestic consumption in foreign economies relative to domestic consumption in the United States.  Those events, in turn, created large and persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits as a feature of the global trading system. 

    Put simply, while World Trade Organization (WTO) Members agreed to bind their tariff rates on a most-favored-nation (MFN) basis, and thereby provide their best tariff rates to all WTO Members, they did not agree to bind their tariff rates at similarly low levels or to apply tariff rates on a reciprocal basis.  Consequently, according to the WTO, the United States has among the lowest simple average MFN tariff rates in the world at 3.3 percent, while many of our key trading partners like Brazil (11.2 percent), China (7.5 percent), the European Union (EU) (5 percent), India (17 percent), and Vietnam (9.4 percent) have simple average MFN tariff rates that are significantly higher.  

    Moreover, these average MFN tariff rates conceal much larger discrepancies across economies in tariff rates applied to particular products.  For example, the United States imposes a 2.5 percent tariff on passenger vehicle imports (with internal combustion engines), while the European Union (10 percent), India (70 percent), and China (15 percent) impose much higher duties on the same product.  For network switches and routers, the United States imposes a 0 percent tariff, but for similar products, India (10 percent) levies a higher rate.  Brazil (18 percent) and Indonesia (30 percent) impose a higher tariff on ethanol than does the United States (2.5 percent).  For rice in the husk, the U.S. MFN tariff is 2.7 percent (ad valorem equivalent), while India (80 percent), Malaysia (40 percent), and Turkey (an average of 31 percent) impose higher rates.  Apples enter the United States duty-free, but not so in Turkey (60.3 percent) and India (50 percent).

    Similarly, non-tariff barriers also deprive U.S. manufacturers of reciprocal access to markets around the world.  The 2025 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers (NTE) details a great number of non-tariff barriers to U.S. exports around the world on a trading-partner by trading-partner basis.  These barriers include import barriers and licensing restrictions; customs barriers and shortcomings in trade facilitation; technical barriers to trade (e.g., unnecessarily trade restrictive standards, conformity assessment procedures, or technical regulations); sanitary and phytosanitary measures that unnecessarily restrict trade without furthering safety objectives; inadequate patent, copyright, trade secret, and trademark regimes and inadequate enforcement of intellectual property rights; discriminatory licensing requirements or regulatory standards; barriers to cross-border data flows and discriminatory practices affecting trade in digital products; investment barriers; subsidies; anticompetitive practices; discrimination in favor of domestic state-owned enterprises, and failures by governments in protecting labor and environment standards; bribery; and corruption.

    Moreover, non-tariff barriers include the domestic economic policies and practices of our trading partners, including currency practices and value-added taxes, and their associated market distortions, that suppress domestic consumption and boost exports to the United States.  This lack of reciprocity is apparent in the fact that the share of consumption to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States is about 68 percent, but it is much lower in others like Ireland (27 percent), Singapore (31 percent), China (39 percent), South Korea (49 percent), and Germany (50 percent).

    At the same time, efforts by the United States to address these imbalances have stalled.  Trading partners have repeatedly blocked multilateral and plurilateral solutions, including in the context of new rounds of tariff negotiations and efforts to discipline non-tariff barriers.  At the same time, with the U.S. economy disproportionately open to imports, U.S. trading partners have had few incentives to provide reciprocal treatment to U.S. exports in the context of bilateral trade negotiations.

    These structural asymmetries have driven the large and persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficit.  Even for countries with which the United States may enjoy an occasional bilateral trade surplus, the accumulation of tariff and non-tariff barriers on U.S. exports may make that surplus smaller than it would have been without such barriers.  Permitting these asymmetries to continue is not sustainable in today’s economic and geopolitical environment because of the effect they have on U.S. domestic production.  A nation’s ability to produce domestically is the bedrock of its national and economic security.

    Both my first Administration in 2017, and the Biden Administration in 2022, recognized that increasing domestic manufacturing is critical to U.S. national security.  According to 2023 United Nations data, U.S. manufacturing output as a share of global manufacturing output was 17.4 percent, down from a peak in 2001 of 28.4 percent. 

    Over time, the persistent decline in U.S. manufacturing output has reduced U.S. manufacturing capacity.  The need to maintain robust and resilient domestic manufacturing capacity is particularly acute in certain advanced industrial sectors like automobiles, shipbuilding, pharmaceuticals, technology products, machine tools, and basic and fabricated metals, because once competitors gain sufficient global market share in these sectors, U.S. production could be permanently weakened.  It is also critical to scale manufacturing capacity in the defense-industrial sector so that we can manufacture the defense materiel and equipment necessary to protect American interests at home and abroad.  

    In fact, because the United States has supplied so much military equipment to other countries, U.S. stockpiles of military goods are too low to be compatible with U.S. national defense interests.  Furthermore, U.S. defense companies must develop new, advanced manufacturing technologies across a range of critical sectors including bio-manufacturing, batteries, and microelectronics.  If the United States wishes to maintain an effective security umbrella to defend its citizens and homeland, as well as for its allies and partners, it needs to have a large upstream manufacturing and goods-producing ecosystem to manufacture these products without undue reliance on imports for key inputs. 

    Increased reliance on foreign producers for goods also has compromised U.S. economic security by rendering U.S. supply chains vulnerable to geopolitical disruption and supply shocks.  In recent years, the vulnerability of the U.S. economy in this respect was exposed both during the COVID-19 pandemic, when Americans had difficulty accessing essential products, as well as when the Houthi rebels later began attacking cargo ships in the Middle East. 

    The decline of U.S. manufacturing capacity threatens the U.S. economy in other ways, including through the loss of manufacturing jobs.  From 1997 to 2024, the United States lost around 5 million manufacturing jobs and experienced one of the largest drops in manufacturing employment in history.  Furthermore, many manufacturing job losses were concentrated in specific geographical areas.  In these areas, the loss of manufacturing jobs contributed to the decline in rates of family formation and to the rise of other social trends, like the abuse of opioids, that have imposed profound costs on the U.S. economy.

    The future of American competitiveness depends on reversing these trends.  Today, manufacturing represents just 11 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, yet it accounts for 35 percent of American productivity growth and 60 percent of our exports.  Importantly, U.S. manufacturing is the main engine of innovation in the United States, responsible for 55 percent of all patents and 70 percent of all research and development (R&D) spending.  The fact that R&D expenditures by U.S. multinational enterprises in China grew at an average rate of 13.6 percent a year between 2003 and 2017, while their R&D expenditures in the United States grew by an average of just 5 percent per year during the same time period, is evidence of the strong link between manufacturing and innovation.  Furthermore, every manufacturing job spurs 7 to 12 new jobs in other related industries, helping to build and sustain our economy.

    Just as a nation that does not produce manufactured products cannot maintain the industrial base it needs for national security, neither can a nation long survive if it cannot produce its own food.  Presidential Policy Directive 21 of February 12, 2013 (Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience), designates food and agriculture as a “critical infrastructure sector” because it is one of the sectors considered “so vital to the United States that [its] incapacity or destruction . . . would have a debilitating impact on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination of those matters.”  Furthermore, when I left office, the United States had a trade surplus in agricultural products, but today, that surplus has vanished.  Eviscerated by a slew of new non-tariff barriers imposed by our trading partners, it has been replaced by a projected $49 billion annual agricultural trade deficit. For these reasons, I hereby declare and order:

    Section 1.  National Emergency.  As President of the United States, my highest duty is ensuring the national and economic security of the country and its citizens.  

    I have declared a national emergency arising from conditions reflected in large and persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits, which have grown by over 40 percent in the past 5 years alone, reaching $1.2 trillion in 2024.  This trade deficit reflects asymmetries in trade relationships that have contributed to the atrophy of domestic production capacity, especially that of the U.S. manufacturing and defense-industrial base.  These asymmetries also impact U.S. producers’ ability to export and, consequentially, their incentive to produce. 
    Specifically, such asymmetry includes not only non-reciprocal differences in tariff rates among foreign trading partners, but also extensive use of non-tariff barriers by foreign trading partners, which reduce the competitiveness of U.S. exports while artificially enhancing the competitiveness of their own goods.  These non-tariff barriers include technical barriers to trade; non-scientific sanitary and phytosanitary rules; inadequate intellectual property protections; suppressed domestic consumption (e.g., wage suppression); weak labor, environmental, and other regulatory standards and protections; and corruption.  These non-tariff barriers give rise to significant imbalances even when the United States and a trading partner have comparable tariff rates. 

    The cumulative effect of these imbalances has been the transfer of resources from domestic producers to foreign firms, reducing opportunities for domestic manufacturers to expand and, in turn, leading to lost manufacturing jobs, diminished manufacturing capacity, and an atrophied industrial base, including in the defense-industrial sector.  At the same time, foreign firms are better positioned to scale production, reinvest in innovation, and compete in the global economy, to the detriment of U.S. economic and national security.  
    The absence of sufficient domestic manufacturing capacity in certain critical and advanced industrial sectors — another outcome of the large and persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits — also compromises U.S. economic and national security by rendering the U.S. economy less resilient to supply chain disruption.  Finally, the large, persistent annual U.S. goods trade deficits, and the concomitant loss of industrial capacity, have compromised military readiness; this vulnerability can only be redressed through swift corrective action to rebalance the flow of imports into the United States.  Such impact upon military readiness and our national security posture is especially acute with the recent rise in armed conflicts abroad.  I call upon the public and private sector to make the efforts necessary to strengthen the international economic position of the United States.  

    Sec. 2.  Reciprocal Tariff Policy.  It is the policy of the United States to rebalance global trade flows by imposing an additional ad valorem duty on all imports from all trading partners except as otherwise provided herein.  The additional ad valorem duty on all imports from all trading partners shall start at 10 percent and shortly thereafter, the additional ad valorem duty shall increase for trading partners enumerated in Annex I to this order at the rates set forth in Annex I to this order.  These additional ad valorem duties shall apply until such time as I determine that the underlying conditions described above are satisfied, resolved, or mitigated.   

    Sec. 3.  Implementation.  (a)  Except as otherwise provided in this order, all articles imported into the customs territory of the United States shall be, consistent with law, subject to an additional ad valorem rate of duty of 10 percent.  Such rates of duty shall apply with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on April 5, 2025, except that goods loaded onto a vessel at the port of loading and in transit on the final mode of transit before 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on April 5, 2025, and entered for consumption or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on April 5, 2025, shall not be subject to such additional duty.  

    Furthermore, except as otherwise provided in this order, at 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on April 9, 2025, all articles from trading partners enumerated in Annex I to this order imported into the customs territory of the United States shall be, consistent with law, subject to the country-specific ad valorem rates of duty specified in Annex I to this order.  Such rates of duty shall apply with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on April 9, 2025, except that goods loaded onto a vessel at the port of loading and in transit on the final mode of transit before 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on April 9, 2025, and entered for consumption or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on April 9, 2025, shall not be subject to these country-specific ad valorem rates of duty set forth in Annex I to this order.  These country-specific ad valorem rates of duty shall apply to all articles imported pursuant to the terms of all existing U.S. trade agreements, except as provided below. 

    (b)  The following goods as set forth in Annex II to this order, consistent with law, shall not be subject to the ad valorem rates of duty under this order:  (i) all articles that are encompassed by 50 U.S.C. 1702(b); (ii) all articles and derivatives of steel and aluminum subject to the duties imposed pursuant to section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and proclaimed in Proclamation 9704 of March 8, 2018 (Adjusting Imports of Aluminum Into the United States), as amended, Proclamation 9705 of March 8, 2018 (Adjusting Imports of Steel Into the United States), as amended, and Proclamation 9980 of January 24, 2020 (Adjusting Imports of Derivative Aluminum Articles and Derivative Steel Articles Into the United States), as amended, Proclamation 10895 of February 10, 2025 (Adjusting Imports of Aluminum Into the United States), and Proclamation 10896 of February 10, 2025 (Adjusting Imports of Steel into the United States); (iii) all automobiles and automotive parts subject to the additional duties imposed pursuant to section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, as amended, and proclaimed in Proclamation 10908 of March 26, 2025 (Adjusting Imports of Automobiles and Automobile Parts Into the United States); (iv) other products enumerated in Annex II to this order, including copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, lumber articles, certain critical minerals, and energy and energy products; (v) all articles from a trading partner subject to the rates set forth in Column 2 of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS); and (vi) all articles that may become subject to duties pursuant to future actions under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.

    (c)  The rates of duty established by this order are in addition to any other duties, fees, taxes, exactions, or charges applicable to such imported articles, except as provided in subsections (d) and (e) of this section below. 

    (d)  With respect to articles from Canada, I have imposed additional duties on certain goods to address a national emergency resulting from the flow of illicit drugs across our northern border pursuant to Executive Order 14193 of February 1, 2025 (Imposing Duties To Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our Northern Border), as amended by Executive Order 14197 of February 3, 2025 (Progress on the Situation at Our Northern Border), and Executive Order 14231 of March 2, 2025 (Amendment to Duties To Address the Flow of Illicit Drugs Across Our Northern Border).  With respect to articles from Mexico, I have imposed additional duties on certain goods to address a national emergency resulting from the flow of illicit drugs and illegal migration across our southern border pursuant to Executive Order 14194 of February 1, 2025 (Imposing Duties To Address the Situation at Our Southern Border), as amended by Executive Order 14198 of February 3, 2025 (Progress on the Situation at Our Southern Border), and Executive Order 14227 of March 2, 2025 (Amendment to Duties To Address the Situation at Our Southern Border).  As a result of these border emergency tariff actions, all goods of Canada or Mexico under the terms of general note 11 to the HTSUS, including any treatment set forth in subchapter XXIII of chapter 98 and subchapter XXII of chapter 99 of the HTSUS, as related to the Agreement between the United States of America, United Mexican States, and Canada (USMCA), continue to be eligible to enter the U.S. market under these preferential terms.  However, all goods of Canada or Mexico that do not qualify as originating under USMCA are presently subject to additional ad valorem duties of 25 percent, with energy or energy resources and potash imported from Canada and not qualifying as originating under USMCA presently subject to the lower additional ad valorem duty of 10 percent.  

    (e)  Any ad valorem rate of duty on articles imported from Canada or Mexico under the terms of this order shall not apply in addition to the ad valorem rate of duty specified by the existing orders described in subsection (d) of this section.  If such orders identified in subsection (d) of this section are terminated or suspended, all items of Canada and Mexico that qualify as originating under USMCA shall not be subject to an additional ad valorem rate of duty, while articles not qualifying as originating under USMCA shall be subject to an ad valorem rate of duty of 12 percent.  However, these ad valorem rates of duty on articles imported from Canada and Mexico shall not apply to energy or energy resources, to potash, or to an article eligible for duty-free treatment under USMCA that is a part or component of an article substantially finished in the United States. 

    (f)  More generally, the ad valorem rates of duty set forth in this order shall apply only to the non-U.S. content of a subject article, provided at least 20 percent of the value of the subject article is U.S. originating.  For the purposes of this subsection, “U.S. content” refers to the value of an article attributable to the components produced entirely, or substantially transformed in, the United States.  U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), to the extent permitted by law, is authorized to require the collection of such information and documentation regarding an imported article, including with the entry filing, as is necessary to enable CBP to ascertain and verify the value of the U.S. content of the article, as well as to ascertain and verify whether an article is substantially finished in the United States. 

    (g)  Subject articles, except those eligible for admission under “domestic status” as defined in 19 CFR 146.43, which are subject to the duty specified in section 2 of this order and are admitted into a foreign trade zone on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on April 9, 2025, must be admitted as “privileged foreign status” as defined in 19 CFR 146.41. 

    (h)  Duty-free de minimis treatment under 19 U.S.C. 1321(a)(2)(A)-(B) shall remain available for the articles described in subsection (a) of this section.  Duty-free de minimis treatment under 19 U.S.C. 1321(a)(2)(C) shall remain available for the articles described in subsection (a) of this section until notification by the Secretary of Commerce to the President that adequate systems are in place to fully and expeditiously process and collect duty revenue applicable pursuant to this subsection for articles otherwise eligible for de minimis treatment.  After such notification, duty-free de minimis treatment under 19 U.S.C. 1321(a)(2)(C) shall not be available for the articles described in subsection (a) of this section.  

    (i)  The Executive Order of April 2, 2025 (Further Amendment to Duties Addressing the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People’s Republic of China as Applied to Low-Value Imports), regarding low-value imports from China is not affected by this order, and all duties and fees with respect to covered articles shall be collected as required and detailed therein.

    (j)  To reduce the risk of transshipment and evasion, all ad valorem rates of duty imposed by this order or any successor orders with respect to articles of China shall apply equally to articles of both the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macau Special Administrative Region.

    (k)  In order to establish the duty rates described in this order, the HTSUS is modified as set forth in the Annexes to this order.  These modifications shall enter into effect on the dates set forth in the Annexes to this order.

    (l)  Unless specifically noted herein, any prior Presidential Proclamation, Executive Order, or other Presidential directive or guidance related to trade with foreign trading partners that is inconsistent with the direction in this order is hereby terminated, suspended, or modified to the extent necessary to give full effect to this order.

    Sec. 4.  Modification Authority.  (a)  The Secretary of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative, in consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Homeland Security, the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, the Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing, and the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, shall recommend to me additional action, if necessary, if this action is not effective in resolving the emergency conditions described above, including the increase in the overall trade deficit or the recent expansion of non-reciprocal trade arrangements by U.S. trading partners in a manner that threatens the economic and national security interests of the United States. 

    (b)  Should any trading partner retaliate against the United States in response to this action through import duties on U.S. exports or other measures, I may further modify the HTSUS to increase or expand in scope the duties imposed under this order to ensure the efficacy of this action. 

    (c)  Should any trading partner take significant steps to remedy non-reciprocal trade arrangements and align sufficiently with the United States on economic and national security matters, I may further modify the HTSUS to decrease or limit in scope the duties imposed under this order.

    (d)  Should U.S. manufacturing capacity and output continue to worsen, I may further modify the HTSUS to increase duties under this order.

    Sec. 5.  Implementation Authority.  The Secretary of Commerce and the United States Trade Representative, in consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Homeland Security, the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, the Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing, the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, and the Chair of the International Trade Commission are hereby authorized to employ all powers granted to the President by IEEPA as may be necessary to implement this order.  Each executive department and agency shall take all appropriate measures within its authority to implement this order.

    Sec. 6.  Reporting Requirements.  The United States Trade Representative, in consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary of Homeland Security, the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, the Senior Counselor for Trade and Manufacturing, and the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, is hereby authorized to submit recurring and final reports to the Congress on the national emergency declared in this order, consistent with section 401(c) of the NEA (50 U.S.C. 1641(c)) and section 204(c) of IEEPA (50 U.S.C. 1703(c)).

    Sec. 7.  General Provisions.  (a)  Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

    (i)   the authority granted by law to an executive department, agency, or the head thereof; or

    (ii)  the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

    (b)  This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

    (c)  This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

    DONALD J. TRUMP

    THE WHITE HOUSE,
        April 2, 2025.

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Stuck in the past: Trump tariffs and other policies are dragging the U.S. back to the 19th century

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Eric Strikwerda, Associate Professor, History, Athabasca University

    During Donald Trump’s first term as president, the United States lurched from the absurdity of his lies to the use of his office for personal financial gain, his schoolyard insults and his utter contempt for critics. His term ended with his irresponsible and dangerous incitement of the assault on the Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021.

    This time around, Trump is replying on outdated tools — tariffs, small government, territorial expansion and nationalism — to solve modern problems of globalization, wealth disparities, the decline of manufacturing jobs and exploitative capitalism.

    On April 2, he announced a baseline tariff of 10 per cent on all countries that import goods to the U.S., including Canada. Canada has also been hit with a 25 per cent levy on Canadian-made automobiles.

    The Trump administration’s current use of 19th-century tools to solve 20th-century problems that are wholly inappropriate for the 21st century threatens to take America back to the 19th century. This is an incredibly dangerous road for the U.S to take.

    The rise of the nation state

    The 19th century was marked by the rise of the nation-state — a single political entity united by geography, culture and language.

    This was, in many respects, the result of the rapidly industrializing world shifting away from monarchical rule and mercantile economics toward limited democratic rule and free-market capitalism.

    It was a time of tariffs, small government, territorial expansion and nationalism. It was also a time of mass migration from Europe to North America, where rampant nativism, colonialism and unchecked and exploitative capitalism shaped the landscape.

    The prevailing belief at the time was that nation-states should use tariffs, adopt isolationist policies to cut off the outside world and seize territory where possible. These measures, it was thought, would foster national unity and allow capitalism to thrive by letting the “invisible hand” of the marketplace work its magic.

    Protective tariffs promised to grow domestic industries, but the economic benefits were not evenly distributed. Wealth disparities grew wider as millions of immigrants arrived on North American shores, only to find deplorable living conditions in the cities and hardscrabble farmland out in the country.

    Some newcomers prospered, of course, but they tended to be those who arrived with money already in their pockets. And they fast learned how to exploit the lack of state-directed regulation, patches of corruption amid rapid western expansion and growing nativism and poverty to their own benefit.

    Many of the 20th century’s problems flowed from these 19th-century trends.

    The economic fallout of tariffs

    Following the financial Panic of 1873 and its ensuing economic depression in both Europe and North America, nation-states unleashed tariffs to protect their domestic economies. It was the wrong strategy to pursue, as it slowed trade even more by limiting the free flow of goods and capital. Money, as is now well-known, needs to move to grow.

    Working families chafed at the lack of labour protections like bargaining rights, health and safety measures, unemployment insurance and sick benefits. In response, they formed unions and initiated waves of strikes throughout the western industrialized world.

    Western North American farmers were furious that tariffs forced them to buy on protected markets while selling on unprotected ones subject to international market prices. They organized, too, by forming farmer co-operatives and backing movements like the Granger movement, populism and progressivism to protect their interests.

    Nation-states, warmed by rising nationalist fires, formed military-defence alliances across Europe and its colonial and former colonial holdings, including Canada. In 1914, these alliances led to the First World War, a global and industrial war the likes of which the world had never seen.

    The Great Depression

    By the 1930s, unrestricted and largely unregulated capitalism, together with astonishing wealth disparities and monopolistic tendencies, plunged the world into the decade-long Great Depression.

    Many governments’ initial response was to impose tariffs once again, and just as in 1873, they only made the problem worse. The simultaneous rise of fascism, which was largely nationalism run amok, brought the world to war again at the end of the decade, to devastating consequence.

    The post-war years saw a concerted international effort at using the nation-state to regulate domestic economies by investing in social services and programs and to rein in runaway capital when its excesses threatened stability.

    International bodies like the World Bank, the United Nations and the International Court of Justice were created to promote peace and stability. This new approach wasn’t always successful in its goals, but so far the world hasn’t seen any global hot wars or massive economic depressions.

    The end of history

    In 1992, historian Frances Fukuyama infamously declared that the world had reached “the end of history.”

    He didn’t mean that time stopped, of course. Instead, he was arguing that the liberal nation-state represented “the end-point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the universalization of western liberal democracy as the final form of human government.”

    In his view, the western industrialized world had reached the pinnacle of successful governance and unlimited prosperity.

    Yet, even as western liberal democracy was congratulating itself on its own success, these same nation-states, in conjunction with large corporations, were seeking out lower labour costs and greater profit in the developing world.

    The result was a hollowing-out of North America’s industrial heartlands, along with rampant exploitation of vulnerable labour in places like Asia, South Asia and South Central America. Once mighty American cities declined. Wages failed to keep up with inflation. Farm debt soared.

    This is where the Trump administration re-enters the story — tapping into the frustration and disillusionment of frustrated Americans by promising to restore a “golden age” that never was.

    Trump’s 19th-century playbook

    Despite his promises, Trump’s tariffs are unlikely to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. As history has shown, tariffs do not revive industries that are already gone; instead, they will only make Americans pay more for the things they need.

    A return to small government won’t “make America great again,” either. Instead, it risks repeating the 19th-century pattern of making the rich richer and gutting the very social programs millions of people rely on. The Trump administration’s massive and ongoing cuts to the Social Security Administration are already well under way.

    Trump’s rhetoric about territorial expansion, including threats to annex Greenland and Canada, won’t make the U.S. more secure. It will just exacerbate the sort of international tensions the world saw in 1914 and 1939.

    And with limited resources left to exploit, it’s becoming harder for capital to sustain itself, even as it seeks to wrest whatever is left from our planet, the realities of environmental catastrophe be damned.

    Nationalism, meanwhile, won’t foster a sense of national unity. It will only deepen existing divisions based on race and class. And if history is any guide, the consequences could be even more dire this time around, even pushing the world toward a global conflict unlike anything seen before.

    Eric Strikwerda does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Stuck in the past: Trump tariffs and other policies are dragging the U.S. back to the 19th century – https://theconversation.com/stuck-in-the-past-trump-tariffs-and-other-policies-are-dragging-the-u-s-back-to-the-19th-century-253106

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI United Nations: New Permanent Representative of Pakistan Presents Credentials

    Source: United Nations 4

    (Based on information provided by the Protocol and Liaison Service)

    The new Permanent Representative of Pakistan to the United Nations, Asim Iftikhar Ahmad, presented his credentials to UN Secretary-General António Guterres today.

    Prior to his appointment, Mr. Ahmad served as his country’s ambassador to France and Monaco and as Permanent Delegate to the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) from November 2022 to December 2024.

    Before holding several positions in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Islamabad, Mr. Ahmad served as Pakistan’s ambassador to Thailand and Permanent Representative to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) from 2017 to 2021.

    His work with the United Nations in New York and Geneva includes serving as a member of the country’s delegation to the Security Council in 2003-2004 and in 2012-2013, when he also served as Pakistan’s political coordinator in the Council.  He has represented Pakistan at the Human Rights Council and the review of Pakistan’s reports to the Committee on the Rights of the Child and the Committee against Torture.  He also served as the Deputy Chef de Cabinet to the General Assembly President from 2009-2010.

    Mr. Ahmad holds a degree in electrical engineering from the University of Engineering and Technology, and a Bachelor of Arts from the University of the Punjab, both in Lahore, Pakistan.

    MIL OSI United Nations News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Amid Record High Killing of Humanitarian Workers, Speakers Implore Security Council to Ensure Accountability for Attacks on Personnel in Conflict Zones

    Source: United Nations MIL OSI b

    What is the Council going to do to ensure accountability for the killing of aid workers and to prevent more such deaths, a senior United Nations humanitarian official asked the 15-member body today, as she detailed the unprecedented attacks that such workers face in conflict zones around the world.

    Joyce Msuya, Assistant-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Deputy Emergency Relief Coordinator, noting the record number of humanitarian workers killed in 2024 — 377 across 20 countries — said many more were injured, kidnapped, and arbitrarily detained.  “Being shot at should not be part of the job,” she emphasized. 

    In Sudan, at least 84 humanitarian workers, all Sudanese nationals, have been killed since the current conflict began in 2023.  Three days ago, the bodies of 15 emergency aid workers were recovered from a mass grave in Rafah — killed several days earlier by Israeli forces while trying to save lives.  “Gaza is the most dangerous place for humanitarians ever”, she said — a statement echoed several times in the ensuing discussion.  More than 408 aid workers were killed there, since 7 October 2023.  

    There is no shortage of robust international legal frameworks to tackle this, she added — “what is lacking is the political will to comply.”   Almost 95 per cent of those killed are local aid workers; but the killing of a local aid worker receives 500 times less media coverage than that of an international staff member.  She also highlighted the challenge posed by disinformation and misinformation campaigns targeting aid organizations. 

    Respect for International Law Is Critical 

    Highlighting three asks, she called on the Council to ensure respect for international law and protect humanitarian workers.  Secondly, “speak out”, she said, adding that “silence, inconsistency and selective outrage is emboldening perpetrators”.  Finally, accountability is crucial, she stressed, adding that the Council must ask concerned Governments to pursue justice, and when national jurisdictions fail it must use international mechanisms.

    Gilles Michaud, Under-Secretary-General for Safety and Security, recalled that he had previously urged the Council to “translate words of support for the protection of humanitarian and United Nations personnel into meaningful action”.  At the time, he also called on Member States to join the Convention on the Safety of United Nations and Associated Personnel.  “Since that briefing, I regret to inform you that progress has been elusive,” he said.

    In Gaza, the breakdown of the ceasefire has been “particularly brutal”, he emphasized, noting, among others, the direct attack on a clearly identified UN building on 19 March.  On 23 March, a worker of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) and other humanitarian staff were killed while providing life-saving assistance — “their bodies left for days before they could be retrieved”, he noted. 

    “Impunity for attacks on humanitarian personnel have become the ‘new normal’,” he said.  Such attacks are perpetrated by non-State actors and Governments alike and, while the motives vary, he stressed:  “But, above all, they do it because they can get away with it.” 

    Closure of Vital Services Due to ‘Criminalization of Aid’ 

    “Through the eyes of a humanitarian, the world is a volatile place,” Nic Lee, Executive Director of the International NGO Safety Organisation told the Council.  On average, at least one aid worker is abducted, injured or killed every day.  Nationally and locally recruited personnel are particularly vulnerable and the international response to their death is lacking.  Violence at the hands of non-State armed groups continues to remain prevalent, with the most common incidents occurring in West and Central Africa. Further, the “criminalization of aid” amid an “explosive growth” in NGO restrictions has led to the closure of vital services for populations in dire need, he said.

    The Council must do more to facilitate diplomatic engagement on humanitarian issues, protect the humanitarian space and “challenge the worrying trend of criminalization of aid”, he said. “The fact is that violence against aid workers is more commonly linked to their identity as civilians than as aid workers,” he added.  The Council must address the double standards of Member States who continue to support those responsible for civilian and aid worker deaths alike. 

    Patterns of Violence Extend Across Multiple Conflict Zones

    When the floor opened, Council members reaffirmed that it is unacceptable to target humanitarian workers and highlighted the frontlines where they are in danger.  The representative of Slovenia recalled the words of the President of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), who addressed the Council in September 2024:  “One conflict informs the other, boundaries are pushed into the zone of the acceptable, and more human suffering follows.” 

    “The pattern of violence against humanitarian workers extends across multiple conflict zones,” Somalia’s delegate said, noting that in Sudan, over 100 aid workers have been killed since April 2023, while Ukraine has lost 23 brave souls, and in Gaza, 399 humanitarian personnel, including 289 UN staff members, paid the ultimate price.  Eight of the aid workers whose bodies were discovered in a mass grave in Rafah recently, he noted, were Red Crescent medics still wearing their protective gear.  This is a “stark violation of every principle we hold sacred”, he said. 

    In Gaza UN Workers Systematically Suppressed, Aid Workers Attacked

    Algeria’s delegate noted that the bodies were buried near destroyed ambulances — they were assassinated by Israeli occupying forces while attempting to save lives.  They deserve justice, he said, stressing that attacks directed at humanitarian personnel, their premises and assets are considered war crimes under international law.  The fact that these basic principles do not seem to apply to the Israeli occupying Power calls into question the relevance of international humanitarian law and the Security Council itself, he said.  Also stressing the need for accountability, China’s delegate stressed the role of UNRWA in Gaza, noting that it has been systematically suppressed and its humanitarian workers attacked. 

    The representative of the United Kingdom noted the one-year anniversary of the attack on a World Central Kitchen convoy in Gaza, which killed seven aid workers, including three British citizens, and called for the conclusion of the Military Advocate General’s consideration of the incident, including determining whether criminal proceedings should be initiated. 

    In Gaza, the representative of the United States said, “Hamas has cynically misused civilian infrastructure to shield themselves” causing “civilians to be caught in the crossfire”.  He expressed concern about the surge in civilian deaths in Sudan, the constraints faced by humanitarians in South Sudan and the devastating effects of the Russian Federation’s war on Ukraine on civilians and civilian infrastructure. Further, “we condemn the Houthis’ sham so-called judicial proceedings against detainees,” he said, expressing concern about the humanitarian and diplomatic personnel detained by the Houthis. 

    In eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sierra Leone’s delegate said, civilians are caught in the crossfire of armed group activity, while in Haiti, violence from armed gangs has engulfed urban centers, displaced thousands and left civilians at the mercy of lawlessness.  In Ukraine, the Russian Federation uses “cruel double-tap strikes” to target first responders, Denmark’s delegate pointed out.

    The Republic of Korea’s delegate noted that in Sudan, warring parties spread false narratives accusing the Sudan Emergency Response Room of collaborating with their enemies, thereby justifying the denial of humanitarian access and leaving millions in urgent need.  He called upon all States to consider sanctioning those responsible for disseminating unverified and libelous content.  Last year – the deadliest on record for humanitarian workers – also saw the adoption of Council resolution 2730 (2024), he recalled.

    Calls for Stronger Action to Implement Council Resolution 2730 (2024)

    The representative of Switzerland, who presented that text to the Council during the country’s tenure as a non-permanent member, stressed the importance of implementing it and guaranteeing unimpeded humanitarian access.  Several speakers reaffirmed support for that text, including the representative of Greece.  France’s delegate, Council President for April, speaking in his national capacity, echoed the call for justice and said that each time violations occur, the Council has to “speak out, it must react”.  Panama’s delegate said the text “set us on the right track, and it remains fully relevant.” 

    Pakistan’s delegate urged the creation of a “global implementation dashboard” for that resolution — it should provide real-time public tracking of violations, investigations and their outcomes “for everyone to see and follow”. The escalating attacks on humanitarian personnel are not just isolated incidents — “they reflect a growing disregard for international norms,” he said, adding that it is unacceptable that those who work to provide “dignity amidst displacement” are met “not with gratitude, but with gunfire”. 

    Guyana’s delegate expressed support for the Secretary-General’s recommendation for the Council to systematically request the concerned State authorities to conduct prompt, independent and effective investigations into incidents and to report to the Council about the outcomes of these investigations, including on measures to prevent reoccurrence.  The Council must also consider referrals to the International Criminal Court or other international tribunals where State authorities prove unable or unwilling to act, she said.

    “What new instruments can we talk about if the Security Council or the General Assembly of the United Nations are unable to enforce previous ones which remain fully relevant?” asked the Russian Federation’s delegate.  Current international obligations are more than sufficient, he said, calling for more scrupulous compliance.  His delegation abstained from voting on Council resolution 2730 (2024) because it contained some language “which is not fully accurate” and may result in distorted interpretation, he said.

    MIL OSI United Nations News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI: Oportun Closes $187.5 Million Committed Warehouse Facility

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    SAN CARLOS, Calif., April 02, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Oportun (Nasdaq: OPRT), a mission-driven financial services company, today announced the closing of a new warehouse facility. Features of this facility include:

    • $187.5 million total commitment
    • Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking, as senior lender
    • Neuberger Berman, on behalf of client funds, as mezzanine lender
    • Two-year revolving period
    • Collateralization by Oportun’s unsecured and secured personal loan originations

    “This new warehouse facility materially increases Oportun’s warehouse capacity with a diversified group of lenders,” said Paul Appleton, Interim Chief Financial Officer of Oportun. “With the support of Natixis and Neuberger Berman, this committed financing will help drive Oportun’s responsible growth in the years ahead.”

    Oportun maintains a diverse set of capital sources including committed warehouse facilities, asset-backed securitizations, corporate-level debt financing, and whole loan sales.

    About Oportun

    Oportun (Nasdaq: OPRT) is a mission-driven financial services company that puts its members’ financial goals within reach. With intelligent borrowing, savings, and budgeting capabilities, Oportun empowers members with the confidence to build a better financial future. Since inception, Oportun has provided more than $19.7 billion in responsible and affordable credit, saved its members more than $2.4 billion in interest and fees, and helped its members save an average of more than $1,800 annually. For more information, visit Oportun.com.

    About Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking

    Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking is a leading global financial institution that provides advisory, investment banking, financing, corporate banking and capital markets services to corporations, financial institutions, financial sponsors and sovereign and supranational organizations worldwide.

    Our teams of experts in about 30 countries advise clients on their strategic development, helping them to grow and transform their businesses, and maximize their positive impact. Natixis CIB is committed to aligning its financing portfolio with a carbon neutrality path by 2050 while helping its clients reduce the environmental impact of their business.

    As part of Groupe BPCE, the second largest banking group in France through the Banque Populaire and Caisse d’Epargne retail networks, Natixis CIB benefits from the Group’s financial strength and solid financial ratings (Standard & Poor’s: A+, Moody’s: A1, Fitch: A+, R&I: A+).

    About Neuberger Berman

    Neuberger Berman is an employee-owned, private, independent investment manager founded in 1939 with over 2,800 employees in 26 countries. The firm manages $508 billion of equities, fixed income, private equity, real estate and hedge fund portfolios for global institutions, advisors and individuals. Neuberger Berman’s investment philosophy is founded on active management, fundamental research and engaged ownership. The PRI identified the firm as part of the Leader’s Group, a designation awarded to fewer than 1% of investment firms for excellence in environmental, social and governance practices. Neuberger Berman has been named by Pensions & Investments as the #1 or #2 Best Place to Work in Money Management for each of the last eleven years (firms with more than 1,000 employees). Visit www.nb.com for more information. Data as of December 31, 2024.

    Forward-Looking Statements

    This press release contains forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All statements other than statements of historical fact contained in this press release, including statements as to our expectations regarding our future growth, are forward-looking statements. These statements can be generally identified by terms such as “expect,” “plan,” “goal,” “target,” “anticipate,” “assume,” “predict,” “project,” “outlook,” “continue,” “due,” “may,” “believe,” “seek,” or “estimate” and similar expressions or the negative versions of these words or comparable words, as well as future or conditional verbs such as “will,” “should,” “would,” “likely” and “could.” These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors that may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. We have based these forward-looking statements on our current expectations and projections about future events, financial trends and risks and uncertainties that we believe may affect our business, financial condition and results of operations. These risks and uncertainties include those risks described in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made and, except to the extent required by federal securities laws, we disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which the statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. In light of these risks and uncertainties, there is no assurance that the events or results suggested by the forward-looking statements will in fact occur, and you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements.

    Investor Contact
    Dorian Hare
    (650) 590-4323
    ir@oportun.com

    Media Contact
    Michael Azzano
    Cosmo PR for Oportun
    (415) 596-1978
    michael@cosmo-pr.com

    The MIL Network –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI United Nations: New Permanent Representative of France Presents Credentials

    Source: United Nations 4

    (Based on information provided by the Protocol and Liaison Service)

    The new Permanent Representative of France to the United Nations, Jérôme Bonnafont, presented his credentials to UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed today.

    Prior to his appointment, Mr. Bonnafont served as Ambassador at his country’s Permanent Mission in Geneva since September 2021. Concurrently, he was rapporteur-general of the “Etats généraux de la diplomatie” (National Roundtable on Diplomacy) — launched by President Emmanuel Macron and then Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna — which led to the March 2023 plan to transform and strengthen France’s diplomatic apparatus.

    He was also an adviser to Prime Minister Edouard Philippe in 2020, Director of the North Africa and Middle East Department (2015-2019), Ambassador to Madrid (2012-2015), Chief of Staff to Minister for Foreign Affairs Alain Juppé (2011-2012) and Ambassador to New Delhi (2007-2011).

    Mr. Bonnafont served as adviser for global affairs and then spokesman for the Presidency from 1997 to 2007 under President Jacques Chirac.

    Prior to this, he served in the Ministry of the Environment (1996-1997), in the Department of Legal Affairs (1995-1996), at the Permanent Mission of France to the United Nations in New York (1993-1995), in Kuwait (1991-1993), in the Department of Economic Affairs (1989-1991) and in New Delhi (1986-1989).

    He is a graduate of the Ecole Nationale d’Administration, France.

    Mr. Bonnafont is married and has one child.

    MIL OSI United Nations News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI USA: Leader of Export Control Evasion Scheme Sentenced to 70 Months in Prison

    Source: US Justice – Antitrust Division

    Headline: Leader of Export Control Evasion Scheme Sentenced to 70 Months in Prison

    Oleg Sergeyevhich Patsulya, a Russian national, was sentenced today to 70 months, or nearly six years, in prison for his role in a conspiracy to export controlled aviation technology to Russia and to launder money in connection with the illegal export scheme. 

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI USA: Ricketts Slams European Nations’ Attempts to Use “Accounting Tricks” to Avoid Defense Spending: “You Can’t Shoot Climate Change At Anybody”

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator Pete Ricketts (Nebraska)
    WASHINGTON, D.C. – Yesterday, U.S. Senator Pete Ricketts (R-NE), a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, slammed attempts by European nations such as Spain and Italy to reclassify climate change and economic competitiveness spending as defense spending as Europe tries to get more serious about defending itself.
    “As the EU grapples with exempting member states’ defense spending from fiscal restrictions, some appear more concerned by what they can reclassify as defense spending rather than actually spend on military readiness,” said Ricketts. “Spain, for example, has argued that defense spending should include broader civil defense costs such as climate change, while Italy has said that measures related to economic competitiveness should count. Last time I checked, you actually need hard assets like bullets to be able to shoot. You can’t shoot climate change at anybody.”
    “Now I realize defense spending isn’t just a matter of percent of GDP, it’s not the only panacea. For example, Italy hosts 30,000 military personnel and their families, as well as the Navy’s Sixth Fleet in Naples,” said Ricketts. “However, when countries which still haven’t met the 2% NATO target that was set over a decade ago, resort to accounting tricks to weaken our collective defense, it makes my position as a supporter of the Transatlantic Alliance more difficult.”
    Ricketts made the comments in a hearing of the Committee on Foreign Relations. The hearing focused on considering the nominations of Warren Stephens to be Ambassador to the Court of St. James, Tilman Fertitta to be Ambassador to the Italian Republic and the Republic of San Marino, and Thomas Barrack Jr.to be U.S. Ambassador to Turkiye.
    Click here to watch.

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: What these new landing barges can tell us about China’s plans to invade Taiwan

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Heaslip, Senior Lecturer in Naval History, University of Portsmouth

    How the Shuqiao barges may be used to ferry troops ashore. X (formerly Twitter)

    China’s intentions when it comes to Taiwan have been at the centre of intense discussion for years. Both mainland China and Taiwan claim to represent the “real” China after the Kuomintang nationalist party under Chiang Kai Shek retreated across the Taiwan Strait and established the Republic of China there in 1949. Ever since then, mainland China – the People’s Republic – has maintained a claim over Taiwan.

    But in recent years, Chinese leaders – including the current president, Xi Jinping – have talked of plans for “reunification” which would bring Taiwan and its population of 23 million under the control of Beijing. By force if necessary.

    Now, the recent appearance of a handful of odd-looking barges at a beach in Guangdong province in the People’s Republic may be a significant movement towards that unwelcome potential outcome.

    The Shuiqiao barges filmed in March 2025 working together to form a relocatable bridge – the name means “water bridge” – enable the transfer of vehicles, supplies and people between ship and shore, over shallow beaches and potential obstacles on to firm ground. Analysts have already pointed out that there is no obvious commercial role for such large vessels, so the most likely purpose is for landing armed forces during amphibious operations.

    All major navies maintain some form of amphibious capability. The UK’s Royal Fleet Auxiliary, for example, operates the UK’s three bay class landing ships, which are due to be replaced by six modern multi-role strike ships. What is particularly significant, however, is that the Shuiqiao offers capabilities along similar lines to the Mulberry harbours built for the D-Day Normandy landings.

    The specialised nature of these landing barges, with only one real purpose – to help land large numbers of military forces, stands in contrast with mainstream amphibious vessels. Bay class ships, for example, continue to be used for civilian evacuations, humanitarian aid, disaster relief and a wide range of military roles.

    That is a crucial distinction as amphibious operations present huge logistical challenges. D-Day required 850,000 troops, 485,000 tons of supplies and 153,000 vehicles to be landed safely over the first three weeks. Ports tend to be difficult to seize intact, as was demonstrated to great cost during the 1942 raid on Dieppe, so it is generally necessary to land armies over the invasion beaches.

    The ability to install temporary harbours, which is what the Shuiqiao bridges appear to provide, offers a means of quickly landing large forces from bigger ships to shore. That also reduces the number of specialised landing ships required, by enabling the use of commercial vessels for ferrying troops to those makeshift ports.

    Is an invasion of Taiwan imminent?

    What is of concern is that such specialised landing barges are not normally constructed until shortly before they are intended to be used. The Mulberry harbours went into production only a year before the Normandy landings. This is both to ensure they are in good working order when required, but also as they tend to offer little additional value and yet come at a significant price. In this present case, the nearest comparable civilian and military vessels cost hundreds of millions of dollars each.

    This does not mean that their appearance guarantees that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent. At present there are reported to be three completed prototype landing barges ready for deployment and three under construction. This would offer one or two beach bridges, each an estimated 820 metres long.

    That would be of minimal value in a major invasion. The single US Navy Jlots modular floating pier in Gaza, for example, was only able to land 8,800 tonnes of aid in 20 days. While the Gaza effort was affected by bad weather, any Shuiqiao landing bridges would face much more dangerous wartime conditions. Three to six barges could also still plausibly be intended for disaster relief, even if does not seem a particularly cost-effective means of delivering aid.

    How the US Jlot floating pier works.

    But if the number of these barges continues to increase then the assumption must be that a major amphibious expedition is likely within the next decade. Historically, neither the UK, US or any other major power has maintained more than a handful of such highly specialised landing vessels, except for when they intended to use them. In the case of these barges the target may not necessarily be Taiwan – although it would be the most obvious target.

    Assuming that an invasion does not trigger a world war, it might still be unsuccessful. Despite years of preparation and near complete control of the sea and skies, the Normandy landings were incredibly perilous and at times looked at risk of defeat. Success came at great cost in lives, through great skill, and at times a little luck. More than 4,400 allied soldiers are believed to have died within the first 24 hours alone, with many more wounded.

    Furthermore, getting forces ashore is only part of the challenge. Taiwan’s geography is not suited to rapid movement inland and in similar historic cases that has led to significant additional casualties and delays.

    The battle of Anzio during the 1944 invasion of Italy, for example, registered tens of thousands of casualties as the allies struggled to break out of the beachhead. Likewise, at Gallipoli in 1915, repeated failures to move inland saw allied forces suffer hundreds of thousands of casualties only to eventually withdraw.

    As a historian who is fond of China, I can only hope that these prototypes will remain just that and this will join the list of other forgotten moments in world history. If not, then the conflicts we have seen since the cold war and even those of the past few years may look minor in comparison to what could be unleashed as a result of an invasion of Taiwan.

    Matthew Heaslip is a Visiting Fellow at the Royal Navy’s Strategic Studies Centre.

    – ref. What these new landing barges can tell us about China’s plans to invade Taiwan – https://theconversation.com/what-these-new-landing-barges-can-tell-us-about-chinas-plans-to-invade-taiwan-253044

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Security: Leader of Export Control Evasion Scheme Sentenced to 70 Months in Prison

    Source: United States Attorneys General 7

    Defendant and Co-Conspirator Both Sentenced to Prison for Conspiring to Send Controlled Aircraft Components to Russia

    Oleg Sergeyevhich Patsulya, a Russian national, was sentenced today to 70 months, or nearly six years, in prison for his role in a conspiracy to export controlled aviation technology to Russia and to launder money in connection with the illegal export scheme. In December 2024, Patsulya’s co-conspirator, Russian national Vasilii Sergeyevich Besedin, was sentenced to two years in prison for his role in the scheme.

    In April 2024, Patsulya, 46, of Miami-Dade County, Florida, pleaded guilty to conspiracy to export items from the United States without a license in violation of the Export Control Reform Act and conspiracy to commit international money laundering. At today’s sentencing hearing, U.S. District Court Judge Dominic W. Lanza for the District of Arizona. found that Patsulya was an organizer and leader of the conspiracy and that the money laundering scheme – which employed numerous shell companies, offshore accounts, and multi-layered transactions – was sophisticated in nature, which led to the application of sentencing enhancements.

    In handing down Patsulya’s 70-month sentence, Judge Lanza emphasized the seriousness of the offense, Patsulya’s leadership role in planning and carrying it out, and the fact that Patsulya committed these crimes not long after being granted the privilege of a visa to enter the United States. “It’s hard to imagine a bigger betrayal of the United States than what you did,” Judge Lanza said. The proceedings also established that Patsulya currently lacks legal status to be present in the United States.

    According to court documents, beginning in or about May 2022, Patsulya and Besedin conspired with each other and several others to obtain orders for various aircraft parts and components from Russian buyers – primarily commercial airline companies – and then fulfill those requests by acquiring the parts from the U.S. suppliers and unlawfully exporting the parts to Russia. The defendants admitted to knowing the items were controlled and required a license from the Department of Commerce to export.

    As part of the scheme, the defendants conspired to export multiple shipments of a carbon disc brake system used on Boeing 737 aircraft. When they contacted various U.S. suppliers in efforts to obtain the brake system, Besedin and Patsulya provided false information that the parts were intended for countries other than Russia. The United States was able to detain, prior to export, multiple shipments made by the defendants containing units of the brake assembly technology.

    As part of their guilty pleas, Besedin and Patsulya admitted that they attempted to conceal the illegal exports and avoid detection by law enforcement, including by making false representations about the identities of their true customers and using straw buyer-companies located overseas to obscure the origin of revenue. For example, on Sept. 8, 2022, Besedin and Patsulya traveled to Arizona to close a deal with a U.S. company, in which the defendants sought to purchase units of the brake assembly technology. During their discussions with the company, the defendants misrepresented that the aircraft parts were going to be exported to Turkey, when they were in fact destined for Russia. The defendants made false statements to the company both orally and in signed export compliance forms. In connection with this transaction, the defendants received money from a Russian airline company to make the purchase. The funds were transferred to Patsulya’s American bank account from a Turkish bank account that had previously received the money from Russia.

    In total, throughout the conspiracy, American bank accounts associated with MIC P&I LLC, Patsulya’s company, received at least $4,582,288.51 sent from Russian airline companies through Turkish bank accounts to purchase aircraft parts and components intended for unlawful export. As part of his plea and sentence, Patsulya is required to forfeit assets, including a luxury car and personal boat, in the amount of $4,582,288.51.

    Sue Bai, head of the Justice Department’s National Security Division, U.S. Attorney Timothy Courchaine for the District of Arizona, Assistant Director Roman Rozhavsky of the FBI’s Counterintelligence Division, and Special Agent in Charge Richard Fitzpatrick of the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) Phoenix Field Office made the announcement.

    The BIS Phoenix Field Office and the FBI Phoenix Field Office investigated the case, with valuable assistance provided by the BIS Boston Field Office, the FBI Miami Field Office, Homeland Security Investigations Phoenix Field Office, Customs and Border Protection-Phoenix Field Office, and the U.S. Marshals Office in Miami.

    Trial Attorney Christopher M. Rigali of the National Security Division’s Counterintelligence and Export Control Section and Assistant U.S. Attorney William G. Voit for the District of Arizona prosecuted the case.

    This case was coordinated through the Disruptive Technology Strike Force, an interagency law enforcement strike force co-led by the Departments of Justice and Commerce designed to target illicit actors, protect supply chains, and prevent critical technology from being acquired by authoritarian regimes and hostile nation-states. The Strike Force leverages tools and authorities across the U.S. government to enhance the criminal and administrative enforcement of export control laws.

    MIL Security OSI –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI USA: Treasurer Stacy Garrity Returns Lost WWI Medal to Veteran’s Family

    Source: US State of Pennsylvania

    April 02, 2025 – Orwigsburg, PA

    Treasurer Stacy Garrity Returns Lost WWI Medal to Veteran’s Family

    At the Orwigsburg Free Public Library, Treasurer Stacy Garrity returned a WWI medal to the family of Joseph William Morrison, who was a Private First Class in the Army from Auburn, Schuylkill County, and was killed in action. The medal was reported to Treasury as unclaimed property.

    The WWI Gold Star Mothers and Widows Pilgrimage Medal was stored in a safe deposit box owned by the late Agnes Morrison, the granddaughter of Joseph’s mother, the late Agnes Kissick Morrison, who the medal was awarded to. Christine Morrison of Brooklyn, New York, traveled to Schuylkill County for today’s ceremony that was attended by numerous family members. Christine is the cousin of Agnes Morrison.

    “I’m so honored to be returning this medal to Joseph Morrison’s family on behalf of a grateful Commonwealth,” Treasurer Garrity said. “It is so important we remember the sacrifices of those who gave their lives serving our country, as PFC Morrison did when he died representing the Allies in France. As a fellow Veteran, there is no higher honor for me than to return these medals to our military families and shine a light on the heroism of our men and women in uniform.”

    Speakers Include:
    Claudia Gross – Library Director, Orwigsburg Free Public Library
    Stacy Garrity – State Treasurer
    Christine Morrison – Great Niece of Medal Recipient, Joseph William Morrison
    Pastor Jeff Stonesifer – Congregational Free Church of Christ
    Dave Moore – Commander, VFW Post 2198

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI USA: Sen. Billy Hickman Celebrates Senate Adoption of Resolution to Further Support Georgia’s K-12 Workforce

    Source: US State of Georgia

    ATLANTA (April 2, 2025) — Today, the Senate successfully adopted Senate Resolution 237. The measure, sponsored by Chair of the Senate Committee on Education and Youth Sen. Billy Hickman (R–Statesboro), urges the Georgia Professional Standards Commission and other state education departments to provide recommendations to strengthen the K-12 education workforce.

    “Our state has long faced challenges in addressing teacher shortages in both early childhood and K-12 education,” said Sen. Hickman. “Strong partnerships between state and local education agencies, school systems, and educational institutions are key to overcoming these challenges. These programs will help attract a diverse pool of future educators, ensuring we can support and strengthen the education workforce through evidence-based strategies.”

    The resolution asks that these recommendations include information about mentorship programs, professional development, and working conditions to improve educator satisfaction and student outcomes. The report must be turned in to the Governor and the Senate by December 1, 2025.

    SR 237 can be found here.

    # # # #

    Sen. Billy Hickman serves as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Education and Youth. He represents the 4th Senate District which includes Bulloch, Candler, Effingham, and Evans County as well as a small portion of Chatham County. He may be reached at 404.463.1371 or by email at Billy.Hickman@senate.ga.gov.

    For all media inquiries, please reach out to SenatePressInquiries@senate.ga.gov.

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI USA: Kugler, Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking

    Source: US State of New York Federal Reserve

    Thank you, Alan, and thank you to the Griswold and Julis-Rabinowitz Centers for the opportunity to speak to you today.1 As someone who has worked in both the public sector and academia, I applaud the common purpose of both centers in connecting researchers, policymakers, and the private sector to pursue policy ideas that serve the public good.

    To that end, I can think of few individuals who have done more—as a teacher, researcher, government official, and public figure—than Alan Blinder. That includes educating the public about economic policymaking. In the spring of 2022, as many wondered whether Russia’s war on Ukraine would add to the factors then driving up inflation, Professor Blinder wrote in the Wall Street Journal that a more important factor would probably be the public’s expectations of future inflation.2
    As I will relate in these remarks, he was, of course, absolutely correct. As in the past, inflation expectations have played a crucial role in the course of inflation since the spring of 2022, and I expect they will be important in the Federal Reserve’s ongoing effort to achieve sustained inflation of 2 percent. For that reason, I would like to focus on inflation expectations today, before discussing my outlook for the U.S. economy and the implications for appropriate monetary policy. First, I will describe inflation expectations within the conceptual framework that many economists use to connect inflation to broader economic activity, known as the Phillips curve. Second, I will discuss the central importance of the stability of these expectations, which we have come to call the “anchoring” of inflation expectations. Third, I will explain how firms and households form their inflation expectations and how these expectations affect their economic decisionmaking. Throughout, I will make some references to historical experiences with inflation but focus on the period since the pandemic.
    Economists have long recognized the connection between inflation and overall macroeconomic conditions, but it was in trying to explain this empirical relationship and measure it with some precision that the importance of inflation expectations was revealed.
    The foundation of this work was laid by New Zealand economist A.W. Phillips, a fascinating figure who was, among other things, a mechanical genius who built an early economic model operated by hydraulics rather than electronics. In contemplating the mechanics of the economy, in 1958 Phillips set about to explain why nominal wage growth was slower when unemployment was high and faster when unemployment was low. His and other subsequent research showed that a crucial factor was the utilization of resources, such as labor and capital.3 Generally, when firms use labor and capital very intensively, production costs tend to rise, and firms have more scope to pass those cost increases along in the form of higher prices for their products and services, which, in turn, may push up inflation across the economy. In contrast, when that level of utilization is low, costs tend to rise more slowly (or even fall), and firms have less scope for raising prices, thus pushing down inflation. This tradeoff has been called the Phillips curve.
    In this simple form, this tradeoff implies that governments can achieve and maintain very low unemployment only if they allow inflation to rise to a certain level. In the latter 1960s, Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps asserted that this orderly tradeoff was only temporary and would ultimately break down because of the role of expectations and, in particular, inflation expectations.4 To use an example, while current production costs are important to a factory owner setting prices, that owner will also consider future production costs, future levels of demand, and expectations for inflation throughout the economy. Likewise, workers will factor expectations of future economic conditions into their pay demands, and banks will consider future inflation in deciding loan rates. Consumers, whose purchases constitute some two-thirds of economic activity, make decisions about whether to purchase something today with an idea of what it will cost in the future. All these decisions are influenced by expectations, and this is the way in which expectations may shape inflation now. In turn, when we think about the Phillips curve and its tradeoff nowadays, we account for the important role of expectations of different individuals throughout the economy.
    There are different measures of inflation expectations, some from surveys polling business owners, others asking consumers, and yet others estimating expectations among bond investors based on the differences in yields between nominal and inflation-indexed securities. While most of my points apply broadly to all measures of expectations, my examples come mostly from surveys of consumers and businesses. While there are questions, which I will address, about how well these surveys measure inflation expectations, I closely monitor them because they complement market-based indicators of future inflation that are affected by dynamics intrinsic to financial markets, such as changes in risk premiums.
    Let me note that, in addition to the way expectations of future inflation influence prices in the near term, there are economic mechanisms that link current inflation with past inflation, such as those that set wages and the terms of rental contracts. In these cases, adjustments in these terms are often benchmarked on past inflation, as, for instance, when workers and landlords aim to recoup losses from increases in general prices. To cite one example, as the economy reopened after the pandemic, workers sought higher wages to compensate for the early wave of inflation in food and core goods, thus further pushing up inflation, especially in the services sector, where labor accounts for the largest share of this sector’s costs.5 And, because rental agreements typically last for 12 months or more, landlords faced a lag in adjusting rents to reflect the escalation of inflation after the pandemic and sought to recoup those losses when renewing leases.
    By looking at price changes this way, in a rearview mirror, some decisionmakers in the economy end up making inflation more persistent. That is important to me as an economic policymaker who must pay attention to both expectations of future inflation and the persistence of current inflation.
    When we speak of expectations of future inflation, it is crucial to define the time horizon, and different surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve and others ask about inflation from 1 year to as many as 10 years in the future. Surveys with a shorter horizon, such as the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers’ question on inflation 1 year ahead, shown in figure 1, are heavily influenced by current inflation. Near-term inflation expectations tend to be more volatile, moving up when, for example, energy prices increase, or down when energy or some other volatile set of prices decreases. These expectations are important because many economic decisions, such as major consumer purchases and hiring and investment for firms, focus on horizons of only a few years ahead.
    By contrast, inflation expectations over longer horizons, such as the Michigan survey’s question on inflation during the next 5 to 10 years (the red line in figure 1), say less about current conditions than about the trend for inflation for some time in the future. You can think about these longer-term expectations as much less affected by the forces that push inflation up or down in the short term, what economists call “shocks.” Longer-term inflation expectations tend to be less volatile, affected less, for example, by what oil or food prices have done lately than by the stability of inflation over years or decades.
    I mention these different time horizons because they matter in my job as a central banker. Expectations a year from now reflect short-term shocks to the economy, as well as ongoing efforts from monetary policymakers to bring the economy back to its longer-run state. Thus, while short-term expectations may indicate whether inflation is expected to move toward its target, they are not the best gauge of monetary policy credibility. Longer-term inflation expectations, however, should be much less influenced by short-term shocks to the economy, and a change in those expectations has implications for the Federal Reserve’s prospects for meeting its price-stability goal.
    When these longer-term expectations are reasonably low and unresponsive to shorter-term developments, we say they are “anchored.” It is not clear who first defined the term, but Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in 2007 gave a speech on inflation expectations in which he described “anchored” expectations as “relatively insensitive to incoming data.”6
    So how should we think about the process of anchoring and de-anchoring of inflation expectations? The dynamics of short- and long-term inflation expectations shed light on this issue. If the public experiences a spell of inflation higher than their shorter-run expectations, they will revise up these shorter-term expectations to ensure that their near-term plans account for the change in the economic environment. That’s what happened after the pandemic, when inflation based on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose to a peak of 7.2 percent and one-year expectations rose to more than 5 percent. But longer-term inflation expectations remained anchored, with values within the range seen since 1995. I would contrast this experience with the United States’ previous bout of high inflation from the 1970s to the early 1980s. Among other issues, such as high energy prices and accommodative monetary policy, rising inflation and inflation expectations fed a cycle of escalating inflationary pressures.7 Inflation was high and very volatile over this period, and that is reflected in shorter and longer-term inflation expectations that were high and volatile, too.
    Another important difference between these two episodes has to do with the performance of the Federal Reserve. As opposed to the late 1960s and most of the 1970s, most recently the Fed acted aggressively to tighten monetary policy, raising the federal funds rate more rapidly than in previous tightenings and lowering inflation more quickly than ever before. This came after 30 years of success in keeping inflation in check, and the credibility earned by the Fed’s inflation discipline surely helped keep longer-term expectations stable. This shows that an important role of the central bank is to convince the public, through actions and communications, about its intention to shape economic conditions and to use its policy tools to bring inflation to its target.8 By committing to keep inflation low in the future, central banks seek to influence expectations of future inflation, which, in turn, influence conditions now and over time. The Fed’s credibility in keeping inflation low and stable, won over decades, kept longer-term inflation expectations stable, and that contributed significantly to the Fed’s success in reducing inflation while keeping the labor market strong.
    Those are some of the basics about inflation expectations and how they influence the economy and the conduct of monetary policy. Next, I want to note some of the patterns we see in survey measures of inflation expectations, what influences expectations, and how inflation expectations are used by the public in their decisionmaking. Fortunately, there is a rich body of economic research that has shed light on these questions, and I will focus on the evidence for households and firms.9 We can then take some lessons from these empirical patterns for monetary policymaking.
    One important observation is that both short- and long-term inflation expectations are often notably higher than actual inflation, even after a period of very low inflation. There is evidence that survey respondents often believe the inflation they have experienced is higher than it is. Another pattern is that there is a wide dispersion of views about both shorter and longer-term inflation expectations, reflecting, at least in part, the dispersion of inflation in the consumer baskets of goods and services purchased by different people. Research also finds that some groups, such as women and lower-income households, tend to have systematically higher inflation expectations. In addition to this variation in expectations, there is high uncertainty in forecasts of future inflation. When people are asked to assign probabilities to different forecasts for inflation, surveys report wide distributions in the likelihood of one outcome or another. Finally, short-term inflation expectations tend to be correlated with both recently realized inflation and perceptions about recent inflation.10
    These patterns tell policymakers that inflation expectations of households and firms are diffuse and likely harder to influence through monetary policy relative to financial market participants and professional forecasters who follow the news more closely. Still, expectations from business owners and workers ultimately inform firms’ pricing decisions and costs and, thus, may even be more relevant for inflation outcomes; therefore, it is important for policymakers to communicate clearly with the public our intentions to bring inflation back to our target.11
    So, because inflation expectations are diffuse and heavily influenced by recent experience, let’s consider the reasons for the dispersion in these expectations. Unsurprisingly, it starts with the considerable variation in the sources that the public uses to collect information about inflation. Households report that their main source of information is their own shopping experiences, making regular purchases such as groceries and gasoline, and the price changes in those goods and services are what affect inflation expectations the most.12 Also, it seems that inflation expectations of homeowners tend to respond to changes in mortgage rates because homeowners have more of an incentive to track changes in rates that might affect, for example, their prospects for loan refinancing.13 Another important source of information is energy bills, with evidence also pointing to households’ inflation expectations being more sensitive to energy prices when inflation is higher.14 More generally, consumers and firms seem to pay more attention to news related to inflation when inflation is high, and this has been found for many countries.15
    While the unique experiences of survey respondents matter, this evidence points to inflation expectations being dependent on the state of the economy. Thus, we policymakers should account for different economic conditions when assessing the risks of a de-anchoring of inflation expectations. For instance, with fresh memories of the post-pandemic inflation and with recent surges in prices of some food items regularly purchased, inflation expectations of workers and firms may now be more sensitive to anticipated future price increases relative to the pre-pandemic period.
    Let me now turn to how households and businesses employ their inflation expectations in their economic decisionmaking, with much of the evidence consistent with what one would expect based on long-standing economic theory. Starting with households, in addition to any influence on wages from past inflation, expectations of future inflation help shape demands for pay raises. Workers care about their inflation-adjusted wages, rather than nominal wages, and (as shown in figure 2) we see a positive correlation between inflation expectations from consumers and wage growth, with a close co-movement during the recent inflationary bout. A complementary decision for the worker is to look for a new job that pays more, especially if the person envisions a low probability of getting a raise in the current job or if the raise will likely not fully cover losses in real incomes from inflation. Indeed, measures of general wage growth are more sluggish relative to those of job switchers. Moreover, researchers also find evidence of higher job-to-job transitions for workers who have higher inflation expectations.16 So inflation expectations of workers are an important influence on nominal wage growth and an important indicator of inflationary pressures for us policymakers.
    Now let’s consider how these expectations influence firms’ decisions. As I discussed in the context of the Phillips curve, firms with higher inflation expectations would be expected to increase prices more, and, indeed, researchers find causal evidence for this.17 During the recent period of high inflation, the fact that business owners’ short-term expectations about costs or input prices rose only modestly and soon returned to levels close to 2 percent just suggests that firms’ inflation expectations were not a strong source of inflationary pressures (as seen in figure 3). Still, researchers at the Richmond Fed also found that during this period, business leaders incorporated more information about aggregate inflation measures in their own pricing decisions compared with times before the pandemic inflation surge.18 While researchers also find that business leaders paid less attention to inflation as it came down, this evidence points to the inflation expectations of businesses being sensitive to underlying inflationary dynamics, and monetary policymakers should remain attentive to this.
    Now let me turn to the recent developments in inflation expectations, the current U.S. economic outlook, and the implications for monetary policy.
    In recent months, we have seen several measures of inflation expectations increase, with both consumers and businesses reporting new and proposed tariffs as an important reason. Among surveys looking one year ahead, there have been notable increases for surveys by the University of Michigan, the Conference Board survey of consumers, the Atlanta Fed’s survey of businesses, the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the New York Fed’s consumer survey. For instance, last Friday’s release of longer-term inflation expectations from the Michigan survey was the highest since February 1993. Additionally, the recent spike in short-term inflation expectations appears to be mostly “anticipatory,” as one can infer from the divergence between falling inflation perceptions—what consumers think price increases have been in the past year—and climbing short-run inflation expectations, both data from the Michigan survey. This anticipatory nature of the recent increase in short-run expectations may allow for price pressures through a second channel: Businesses may feel a greater ability to pass along higher costs to consumers when they come from external factors out of the control of these businesses. Indeed, firms are already reporting not only higher costs, but also expectations of higher costs, according to some surveys, such as the one conducted by the Atlanta Fed, along with other manufacturing surveys. For now, I take some comfort from the much smaller increases in longer-term expectations as measured by the Philadelphia Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, as well as the stability of longer-term measures of what we call inflation compensation, which is based on yields from nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury securities.
    As in past episodes when inflation expectations increased, uncertainty about future inflation seems to have also gone up, as measured by the disagreement between the 75th and 25th percentiles of the distribution of individual respondents to the Michigan survey. Simultaneously, in recent months, we have also seen measures of economic policy uncertainty increase (seen in figure 4), and there is evidence that policy uncertainty and inflation uncertainty correlate over time.19 One possibility is that policy uncertainty may be contributing to a rise in inflation expectations as well as to uncertainty about future inflation. Still, it is hard to say at this point, and I will keep monitoring these developments.
    Let me turn from developments on expected inflation to realized inflation. After the substantial decline in inflation from its peak in 2022, recent disinflation has been slower, and the latest data indicate that progress toward the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) 2 percent goal may have stalled. Core PCE inflation was 2.8 percent in the 12 months ended in February, which puts us back at the same level seen in the last quarter of 2024. The best news for February comes from housing services inflation, which has come down steadily for at least a year to a 12‑month rate of 4.3 percent, even if it is still above the pre-pandemic level of 2.5 percent. For the rest of the inflation categories, the news was less positive. Core goods inflation, which had been negative for a large share of 2024, increased to 0.4 percent relative to a year before. February likely also marked an upward shift in market-based services inflation. While I do not discount price pressures in nonmarket services, which remain elevated, the acceleration in market-based services in February from an estimated 3.1 percent to 3.5 percent is also not welcome, given that this category often provides a better signal of inflationary pressures across all services.
    On the other side of the FOMC’s dual mandate, employment continues to grow at a moderate pace, and the overall labor market has remained resilient through February. The net 151,000 jobs added last month was not too far from the 177,000 average of the previous six months. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1 percent, and labor force participation moved down to 62.4 percent. Other labor market indicators suggest continued moderation in the labor market but not significant weakening.
    Given the recent lack of progress on inflation, recent increases in inflation expectations, and upside risks associated with announced and prospective policy changes, I strongly supported the FOMC’s decision at our March meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. I will support maintaining the current policy rate for as long as these upside risks to inflation continue, while economic activity and employment remain stable. Going forward, I will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and changes in the balance of risks.
    Thank you.

    1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. Return to text
    2. See Alan S. Blinder (2022), “Wish the Fed Luck as It Seeks a Soft Landing on Inflation,” Wall Street Journal, April 6. Return to text
    3. For a literature review on the relationship between inflation and resource utilization, also called the slope of the Phillips curve, see Francesco Furlanetto and Antoine Lepetit (2024), “The Slope of the Phillips Curve (PDF),” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-043 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, May). Return to text
    4. See Milton Friedman (1968), “The Role of Monetary Policy,” American Economic Review, vol. 58 (March), pp. 1–17; and Edmund S. Phelps (1967), “Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment over Time,” Economica, vol. 34 (135), pp. 254–81. Return to text
    5. For a discussion about the timing of the inflation waves of different categories, see Adriana D. Kugler (2025), “Navigating Inflation Waves: A Phillips Curve Perspective,” speech delivered at the Whittington Lecture, McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University, Washington, February 20. Return to text
    6. See Ben S. Bernanke (2007), “Inflation Expectations and Inflation Forecasting,” speech delivered at the Monetary Economics Workshop of the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Cambridge, Mass., July 10, quoted text in paragraph 7. Return to text
    7. For evidence on how longer-run inflation expectations may be driven by short-run inflation surprises, see Carlos Carvalho, Stefano Eusepi, Emanuel Moench, and Bruce Preston (2023), “Anchored Inflation Expectations,” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 15 (January), pp. 1–47. Return to text
    8. For a survey on how central banks communicate with the general public and the effectiveness of such communications, see Alan S. Blinder, Michael Ehrmann, Jakob de Haan, and David-Jan Jansen (2024), “Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?” Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 62 (June), pp. 425–57. Return to text
    9. For a literature review on this topic, see Michael Weber, Francesco D’Acunto, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Olivier Coibion (2022), “The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 36 (Summer), pp. 157–84. Return to text
    10. See David Lebow and Ekaterina Peneva (2024), “Inflation Perceptions during the Covid Pandemic and Recovery,” FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, January 19). Return to text
    11. See Ricardo Reis (2023), “Four Mistakes in the Use of Measures of Expected Inflation,” AEA Papers and Proceedings, vol. 113 (May), pp. 47–51. Return to text
    12. See Francesco D’Acunto, Ulrike Malmendier, Juan Ospina, and Michael Weber (2021), “Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations,” Journal of Political Economy, vol. 129 (May), pp. 1615–39. Return to text
    13. See Hie Joo Ahn, Shihan Xie, and Choongryul Yang (2024). “Effects of Monetary Policy on Household Expectations: The Role of Homeownership,” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 147 (October), 103599. Return to text
    14. See Francesco D’Acunto and Michael Weber (2024), “Why Survey-Based Subjective Expectations Are Meaningful and Important,” Annual Review of Economics, vol. 16 (August), pp. 329–57. For evidence on the higher sensitivity of inflation expectations when inflation is higher, see Paula Patzelt and Ricardo Reis (2024), “Estimating the Rise in Expected Inflation from Higher Energy Prices,” CEPR Discussion Paper 18907 (Paris: Centre for Economic Policy Research, March). Return to text
    15. See, for instance, Anat Bracha and Jenny Tang (2024), “Inflation Levels and (In)Attention,” Review of Economic Studies; and Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Hassan Afrouzi, Tiziano Ropele, Rodrigo Lluberas, Serafin Frache, Brent Meyer, Saten Kumar, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Dimitris Georgarakos, Olivier Coibion, Geoff Kenny, and Jorge Ponce (2025), “Tell Me Something I Don’t Already Know: Learning in Low‐ and High‐Inflation Settings,” Econometrica, vol. 93 (January), pp. 229–64. Return to text
    16. See Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, John Leer, Mathieu Pedemonte, Robert W. Rich, and Raphael S. Schoenle (2022), “Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation,” Working Paper Series 22-21 (Cleveland: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, June); and Laura Pilossoph and Jane M. Ryngaert (2024), “Job Search, Wages, and Inflation,” NBER Working Paper Series 33042 (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, October). Return to text
    17. For the relationship between inflation expectations and pricing decisions, see Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Tiziano Ropele (2020), “Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 135 (February), pp. 165–219. Return to text
    18. For evidence on the recent inflationary episode, see Felipe F. Schwartzman and Sonya Ravindranath Waddell (2024), “Inflation Expectations and Price Setting among Fifth District Firms,” Economic Brief 24‑03 (Richmond: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, January). Return to text
    19. For evidence on how policy uncertainty and inflation uncertainty correlate over time, see Carola C. Binder (2017), “Measuring Uncertainty Based on Rounding: New Method and Application to Inflation Expectations,” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 90 (October), pp. 1–12. The measure of economic policy uncertainty is from Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis (2016), “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 131 (November), pp. 1593–1636. The measure of trade policy uncertainty is from Dario Caldara, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo (2020), “The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty,” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 109 (January), pp. 38–59. Return to text

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Russia: Marat Khusnullin: More than 900 asphalt concrete plants are involved in road construction work within the framework of the national project “Infrastructure for Life”

    Translartion. Region: Russians Fedetion –

    Source: Government of the Russian Federation – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

    April 2, 2025

    Road equipment of Belgoroddorstroy LLC.

    Resource availability for road works and the quality of materials used are among the key points in the implementation of the national project “Infrastructure for Life”. Today, over 900 asphalt concrete plants are operating in 84 subjects of the country – participants of the national project, involved in its activities. This was reported by Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin.

    “We have an ambitious task – by 2030, at least 85% of federal and at least 60% of regional highways should be in a standard condition. Of course, the effectiveness of the implementation of the national project “Infrastructure for Life” directly depends on the quality of materials and work performed, so in anticipation of the new road season, enterprises are checking the serviceability of equipment at asphalt concrete plants and laboratories. This year, 923 asphalt concrete plants will be used in the participating regions for the purposes of the national project,” said Marat Khusnullin.

    Today, road enterprises are actively implementing innovative technologies, including automated component dosing systems, modified bitumen binders, and others. In 2019, a register of new and best technologies, materials, and technological solutions for reuse was created. To date, it contains 417 types of materials, 67 technologies, 85 designs, and 99 production facilities. In 2024 alone, new technologies and materials from the register were used at 2,133 sites.

    Inspection of asphalt concrete plants is the most important stage of preparation for the upcoming season. Early de-preservation of equipment after the cold period and its careful preparation will help to avoid breakdowns, downtime and additional costs at the height of the road season.

    “Commissioning work is currently underway, specialists are also checking the availability of inert materials, technical documentation, and assessing the equipment of laboratories. Thanks to timely contracts, contractors can competently plan the schedule for entering the facilities, this entire set of preparatory measures will allow work to begin immediately upon the onset of favorable weather conditions,” said Igor Kostyuchenko, Deputy Head of the Federal Road Agency.

    For example, in the Voronezh region in 2025, according to the national project, it is planned to renew about 200 km of regional and inter-municipal roads. For these purposes, 28 asphalt concrete plants will be launched.

    Active preparation for the road construction season is also underway in the Lipetsk Region. This year, the region plans to bring more than 200 km of regional and inter-municipal road network, as well as 9 artificial structures, into compliance with the national project.

    From the beginning of April, 8 asphalt concrete plants will start working, including the plant in the village of Koptsevy Khutor. Last year, 220 thousand tons of mixture were produced here for the repair of more than 140 km of regional roads.

    In the Belgorod region, only under the national project “Infrastructure for Life” in the region, they plan to bring 59 road facilities with a length of 157.5 km, as well as 10 artificial structures, into regulatory condition. The required volume of asphalt concrete mixtures for the road industry of the Belgorod region will be provided by 34 asphalt concrete plants, 18 of which will be used directly for the national project facilities.

    In the Saratov region, about 200 km of roads will be repaired this year under the national project, including sections of the street and road network in Saratov and Engels. To achieve these goals, 19 asphalt concrete plants will be involved. Before launching, all road enterprises in the region debug technological parameters, test system integration, conduct personnel training and, of course, undergo a number of mandatory checks.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Russia: Marat Khusnullin: The street and road network and the city bypass are being restored in Makeyevka

    Translartion. Region: Russians Fedetion –

    Source: Government of the Russian Federation – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

    Repair of the street and road network in the city of Makeyevka, Donetsk People’s Republic.

    In the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Moscow Region and the state company Avtodor are comprehensively restoring the street and road network, including the bypass of the city of Makeyevka. Thanks to these works, the traffic load on Makeyevka Highway and 250th Anniversary of Donbass Avenue will be reduced, and the safety of movement for residents will be increased, Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin reported.

    “During a recent working visit to the DPR, the regional leadership and I reviewed the road renovation program. The work is being carried out in a comprehensive manner. In particular, tasks have been set regarding the repair of the street and road network. For example, in Makeyevka, the regional boss – Moscow Region – is restoring more than 34 km of the street and road network, and Avtodor is carrying out work on a 10-kilometer bypass of Makeyevka, which will ultimately increase throughput and safety, as well as the accessibility of socially significant facilities,” the Deputy Prime Minister said.

    Marat Khusnullin added that there are more than five schools on the streets along the bypass route. For the convenience of residents, 36 bus stops will be built, and a parking lot and a sidewalk will be made on Avtotransportnaya Street.

    “Our specialists are renewing the road surface on Magistralnaya, Avtotransportnaya and Gorodetskaya streets. They have already started the active phase: removing old asphalt, laying new surface and installing curbs. They will soon start laying the top layer of asphalt concrete and installing safety elements: they will install 400 road signs, apply almost 4 thousand square meters of markings and install outdoor lighting. We plan to complete the work this summer,” said Vyacheslav Petushenko, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Avtodor State Corporation.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Russia: Denis Manturov met with the head of Buryatia Alexey Tsydenov

    Translartion. Region: Russians Fedetion –

    Source: Government of the Russian Federation – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

    Denis Manturov met with the head of Buryatia, Alexey Tsydenov.

    First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov held a working meeting with the head of the Republic of Buryatia Alexey Tsydenov, where they discussed the development of the region’s industrial sector, including in the area of promising projects in aircraft manufacturing.

    In addition, the issue of upgrading public transport was raised. Buryatia is actively upgrading its transport fleet: 303 buses and 17 trams have been purchased since 2019. The head of the region noted the need for further expansion of the program, including the supply of additional buses and trams in the long term.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Russia: Financial news: 03.04.2025 deposit auction of JSC “GFSO” will take place

    Translartion. Region: Russians Fedetion –

    Source: Moscow Exchange – Moscow Exchange –

    Parameters: Date of the deposit auction 04/03/2025. Placement currency RUB. Maximum amount of funds placed (in the placement currency) 160,000,000.00. Placement term, days 180. Date of depositing funds 04/03/2025. Date of return of funds 09/30/2025. Minimum placement interest rate, % per annum 19.50. Terms of the conclusion, urgent or special (Urgent). Minimum amount of funds placed for one application (in the placement currency) 160,000,000.00. Maximum number of applications from one Participant, pcs. 1. Auction form, open or closed (Open).

    The basis of the Agreement is the General Agreement. Schedule (Moscow time). Applications in preliminary mode from 10:20 to 10:25. Applications in competitive mode from 10:25 to 10:30. Setting the cutoff percentage rate or declaring the auction invalid before 10:40.

    Additional conditions – interest on the deposit amount is accrued and paid monthly; no fees or remuneration for transactions on the deposit account is allowed; extension of the bank deposit agreement upon expiration of the deposit placement term is not allowed; early withdrawal of the deposit amount (part of the deposit amount) at the request of JSC MFI “GFSO”, while the interest rate on the amount of early withdrawn funds is set at a rate higher than the rate for early withdrawal of the deposit amount (part of the deposit amount) established in the credit institution (hereinafter – “on demand”).

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please Note; This Information is Raw Content Directly from the Information Source. It is access to What the Source Is Stating and Does Not Reflect

    HTTPS: //VVV. MEEX.K.M.M.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

    April 3, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Russia: Moscow Metro – Troika Card Now Made Entirely in Russia: A Milestone for Moscow Transport

    Translartion. Region: Russians Fedetion –

    Source: Moscow Metro

    The Troika card is now entirely produced in Zelenograd, a significant achievement in domestic production. Deputy Mayor Maxim Liksutov announced that from the end of 2023, both the card and its microchip will be entirely produced in Moscow. More than 3.5 million of these domestically produced cards have already been delivered to the Moscow Metro.

    Moscow metro. Moscow Metro.

    Five-step production process

    The Troika card is produced using a complex five-stage technology:

    Microchip production – microchips are manufactured on silicon wafers in a specialized “clean” room. The newest Troika chip is entirely domestically produced.

    COB module production – the Chip on Board (COB) module protects the microchip from damage. To do this, it is necessary to separate the chip from the plate, install it on the substrate and enclose it in a protective case.

    Inlay manufacturing – a film with preliminary marking for future cards is prepared, onto which a COB module with an antenna is soldered, forming a functional RFID tag capable of interacting with turnstiles and validators.

    Printing and design of the card – the recognizable design of the Troika card is applied. The insert is placed in plastic, which completes its appearance.

    Card personalization – a unique identification number is programmed into the chip memory, which is linked to the Moscow Metro database. This number is used to track the balance, eligibility for travel and other information related to a specific user.

    Advanced technology and safety

    Each Troika card consists of five layers:

    Transparent protective layer Front printed layer Embedded layer with chip and antenna Back printed layer Additional protective transparent layer

    The chips themselves are grown on silicon wafers, a process that can take up to three months. The latest Russian-made chip has three times the memory capacity and meets the highest security standards.

    The backbone of the Moscow ticket system

    Launched in 2013 under the leadership of Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, the Troika card has become the backbone of Moscow’s public transport ticketing system. It efficiently calculates more than 3,500 fare options depending on the type of transport, zone and validity of the pass.

    The development of a ticket system based on Russian technologies is a critical step in ensuring the stability and safety of Moscow’s urban transport network, emphasized Maxim Liksutov.

    The complete localization of Troika card production underlines Moscow’s aspiration for technological self-sufficiency and uninterrupted service to millions of passengers.”

    MIL OSI Russia News –

    April 3, 2025
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