Category: Natural Disasters

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Auckland storm recovery shifts to delivery focus

    Source: Auckland Council

    As Auckland Council’s storm recovery office wraps up assessing 3500 homes affected by 2023 storms, the focus now shifts to delivering solutions — including completing a programme of 1200 voluntary buy-outs for those in high-risk homes.

    “It’s been a massive, complex and emotional journey — especially for those waiting to find out what the future holds for their home and wider community,” says Mace Ward, Group Recovery Manager for the Tāmaki Makaurau Recovery Office.

    “Reaching this point is a significant milestone, made possible by an enormous team effort. More than 30 organisations have contributed technical experts to help us get here, including some from other regions, even overseas.” 

    Of the 3500 properties assessed, nearly 60 per cent have been cleared of serious risk. The remaining homes have been assessed as facing an intolerable risk to life from future storm events. Of these, 1200 are eligible for a buy-out, while 180 will have their risk reduced through targeted property or community infrastructure solutions.

    Mace Ward, Group Recovery Manager

    Addressing risk 

    “Now that we have a detailed understanding of future risk across storm-affected areas, we can focus on delivering the best solutions for those at risk,” says Mr Ward. 

    “We’ve already completed buy-outs for more than 600 high-risk properties and continue supporting the remaining Category 3 homeowners and tenants through the process, so they can move forward with their lives. While we’ve allowed as much flexibility as we can with timing, we do have a deadline for Government funding so we need to get on with removing buildings or making them safe.”

    Funding for recovery from 2023 storms is supported by a major cost sharing agreement between Auckland Council and the Government, worth over $2 billion. 

    [embedded content]

    Over 1200 high risk homes will be removed or made safe, with a preference for relocation to use elsewhere, or deconstruction to recycle materials. 

    This month councillors will consider a new policy to guide future use of Category 3 land. A business case has just been approved to pave the way for stage one of flood reduction project design, consenting and early enabling works in suburbs along Wairau waterways. In Māngere works will kick off later this month for two major flood reduction projects worth $53m. Detailed investigations are also underway for an approved project to reduce flooding in neighbourhoods around Clover Drive in Rānui.  

    “Compared to other natural disasters of this scale, we’re in a strong position just two years on,” says Mr Ward. “We’ve had to build every process from scratch and do it quickly, under a new government framework. All this while working with communities who are still carrying the trauma and disruption of what they’ve been through. 

    Two upcoming projects in Māngere will reduce flood risk for hundreds of homes

    The path ahead 

    “There’s still a lot to do — from getting spades in the ground for flood reduction projects, to removing most of the high-risk homes and then making decisions about how that land can be used in the future. But with these big pieces of work underway, we’re heading down a very positive path to recovery and future resilience.”

    Meanwhile, community-led recovery planning is well underway across affected areas allowing communities themselves to determine what recovery looks like at the local level — supported by dedicated recovery funding. Wellbeing support continues for 555 affected residents, with the Storm Recovery Navigation Service having supported more than 2000 whānau since the storms.

    To ensure council and communities are better prepared for the next recovery, work is also underway to capture lessons and opportunities from the recovery programme so far. Council welcomed recent support from the Minister Responsible for the RMA for changes that will allow it to better manage development in high-risk hazard areas.

    Unveiling Pou Hihiri – a new sculpture commemorating the impact of Cyclone Gabrielle in the Muriwai community

    Recovery progress information

    The categorisation programme is a voluntary programme for homes affected by major 2023 storms. Property assessments and solutions are focused on situations where there is an ‘intolerable risk to life’ from future storms.

    Final Categories at 1 April 2025 Number of properties
    Total registered 3550
    Category 1 (no intolerable risk to life) 1988
    Category 2C (intolerable risk to life that will be reduced by community mitigation project) 32
    Category 2P (intolerable risk to life that will be reduced by property mitigation) 147
    Category 3 (intolerable risk to life that can’t be reasonably mitigated) 1195
    Withdrawn/ineligible 184

    The Recovery Office will continue to work through a small number of categorisation review requests.

    Category 3 buy-out progress

    When Category 3 homeowners opt into the buy-out programme, council provides them with an independent valuation based on the value of the property at 26 January 2023 (the day before the first major storm in 2023). Through the buy-out process homeowners also have access to a $5,000 contribution for professional fees which can be used toward legal fees or the cost of getting their own valuation.

    When they are happy to move forward with a valuation, the sale and purchase agreement is instructed, the offer accepted, and the buy-out completed at the agreed settlement date. In terms of timing, with each situation being unique, we are working as flexibly as we can to support homeowners to make their decisions – while remaining fair across the programme. 

     Buy-out progress at 1 April 2025  Number of properties
     Council valuations communicated  915
     Sale and purchase agreements instructed  768
     Buy-out offers accepted  715
     Buy-out offers settled  631

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Weather News – Stormy start to the week, then a fine finish – MetService

    Source: MetService

    Covering period of Monday 7th – Thursday 10th April – Rain, possible thunderstorms and hail, and strong winds sweep across Aotearoa New Zealand today (Monday) and Tuesday, associated with a series of cold fronts. These fronts will bring a distinct drop to temperatures ahead of some settled weather to end the working week.

    Southern and western regions of the South Island will see heavy rain, possible thunderstorms and hail today (Monday) and Tuesday.  For the east coast of the South Island, a punchy cold front tomorrow will bring heavy rain and strong winds. MetService has issued some Strong Wind Watches there, particularly about Banks Peninsula where winds could approach severe gale, as well as possible thunderstorms with hail.

    The North Island and Central Aotearoa also join in on the action from Tuesday morning as those strong winds and the heavy rain reach them. Strong Wind Watches have been issued for the Tasman, the Marlborough Sounds, Wellington and the Wairarapa. Moderate risks of thunderstorms and hail for coastal Waikato south to Wellington, then in the afternoon in the east for Wairarapa.

    Temperatures are set to drop behind these cold fronts, which could mean snow for high-lying parts of Southland, Fiordland and Otago (above 800 metres), some of the first snowfall for the season. People will feel this distinct change in temperature, particularly those on the east coast of the South Island where maximums on Tuesday look to be in the low teens, then some low single digit minimums for inland North Island areas on Wednesday and Thursday.

    MetService Meteorologist Katie Hillyer says, “The combination of strong winds, heavy rain and dropping temperatures will give a very wintery feel to many tomorrow and into Wednesday.”.

    These strong southerly winds that have spanned the Southern Ocean translate to heavy swell in the west, with 5 to 6 metres along the coast and up to 7 metres offshore.  

    After an active start to the week, we see some settled weather moving in by Wednesday, which means clearer skies, chilly mornings and some foggy conditions for the second half of the week.

    Please keep up to date with the most current information from MetService at https://www.metservice.com/national/home

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI USA: SPC Apr 6, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

    Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

     For best viewing experience, please enable browser JavaScript support.

    Apr 6, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

    Updated: Sun Apr 6 19:32:45 UTC 2025 (Print Version |   |  )

    Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

     Forecast Discussion

    SPC AC 061932

    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0232 PM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

    Valid 062000Z – 071200Z

    …THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE SOUTHEAST…

    …SUMMARY…
    Scattered damaging winds and isolated tornadoes remain possible
    through this evening across parts of the Southeast. Marginally
    severe wind gusts will also be possible northeastward into parts of
    the southern Appalachians and southern Virginia.

    …20Z Update…
    The only appreciable change with this update was to trim severe
    probabilities behind multiple ongoing convective clusters across the
    Southeast. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will remain the
    primary severe concerns with this activity through about mid
    evening, after which thunderstorms should tend to weaken.

    ..Gleason.. 04/06/2025

    .PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025/

    …Southeast…
    A composite squall line with some embedded bows, along with some
    preceding thunderstorms and occasional transient/mostly weak
    supercells thus far, extends from the Alabama/Georgia border
    vicinity (west/southwest of Atlanta metro) southwestward into
    east-central Alabama and southwest Alabama near Mobile as of 1130am
    CDT/1230pm EDT. Multi-layer cloud cover extends across the nearby
    warm sector to its east, but a moist environment (upper 60s/near
    70F) and some additional heating will lead to further
    destabilization, a change that should most appreciably occur
    northeastward into western/north-central Georgia owing to
    differential heating and essentially a northeastward-advancing warm
    front. The strongest forcing for ascent and deep-layer winds will
    lag (to the west-northeast) the composite convective line, but
    sufficient vertical shear extends into the warm sector to support
    organized storm modes including semi-discrete supercells and
    line-embedded bows. Damaging wind and tornado risks will exist
    through at least early/mid-evening.

    …Southern Appalachians/Piedmont…
    Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these
    regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the afternoon,
    convective intensity should remain muted. Given the strong shear
    across these areas, a few strong to severe storms may produce
    isolated wind damage.

    CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

    .html”>Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today’s Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: A helping hand to clean up backyard streams

    Source: Auckland Council

    Residents are getting the help and tools they need to care for streams in their backyards with an innovative new project introduced by the Hibiscus and Bays Local Board as a result of the 2023 floods.

    The Green your stream project helps homeowners maintain private streams and is being delivered by the Restore Hibiscus & Bays team in partnership with Auckland Council’s Healthy Waters.

    Board chair Alexis Poppelbaum says there is a large percentage of private streams in the local board area and that, blocked streams flooded during the Auckland Anniversary floods and Cyclone Gabrielle.

    “Homeowners are responsible for the stream that runs through their property, and by having the knowledge and tools, they will be able to cope with major rainstorms and be more storm resilient.

    “The project has been running for 15 months and while it is early days, homeowners are eager to get involved, and feedback has been positive.

    “The pilot started in East Coast Bays with the project extended to the Hibiscus Coast last year.

    “Homeowners are busy clearing out rubbish and pest plants from their streams and getting ready for the winter planting season.”

    Setting up the project involved identifying sites with open streams using the council’s mapping system, then adding overlays with address data to establish the catchment areas and target sites.

    Restore Hibiscus & Bays staff door knocked private stream owners and talked to them about the storm damage, their responsibilities to care for private streams, and handed out information about the project.

    Restore Hibiscus & Bays Manager Kelly Meikle says that since the pilot launch, 63 landowners have signed up in East Coast Bays and 24 so far on the Hibiscus Coast.

    “It is fantastic that people are enthusiastic about the project and committed to ecological restoration and sustainable living.”

    Aimed at private stream owners, the project has the following steps:

    • removing obstructions such as rubbish, garden waste and fallen trees from the stream

    • controlling pest plants from the riparian area

    • planting a variety of native plants for ground cover and to stabilise stream banks

    • ongoing maintenance of the stream.

    It is a homeowner’s responsibility to make sure a stream isn’t blocked and won’t cause problems for neighbours. If fencing a stream, fences should be built outside of the floodplain area and parallel to the flow of the stream. Wire fences are preferred as timber fences without removable slats or brick walls can obstruct the flow of water and cause flooding.

    Meikle says the project now includes several schools as some school sites have large streams which are ideally located to support larger scale stormwater management.

    “Students and teachers are caring for the sites. Native plants planted along stream banks help absorb water and reduce rapid runoff which takes away the pressure on lower catchment areas.

    This approach helps people living in older suburbs where aging infrastructure and heavily modified landscapes contribute to flooding risks.”

    Extending the project to connect more sites in Campbells Bay has been important for that catchment area which is steep sided and has a base where flooding can occur.

    Te Herenga Waka o Orewa are hosting workshops about pest plants and volunteers are cleaning up the edge of the Weiti River, removing rubbish trapped in mangroves and stopping it washing into the Long Bay Marine Reserve.

    Anyone who wants information about caring for a stream or to know about the Green your Stream project, should email info@restorehb.org.nz.

    Stay up to date

    Sign up for your Local Board E-news and get the latest news and events direct to your inbox each month. Or follow us on Facebook.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Resilience committee responds to wildfire

    Source: Scottish Government

    SGoRR meets to discuss ongoing situation.

    The Scottish Government’s Resilience Room (SGoRR) met this evening to discuss the response to an ongoing wildfire in the area of Galloway.

    The meeting was chaired by the Cabinet Secretary for Justice and Home Affairs, Angela Constance, and attended by partner agencies including Scottish Fire and Rescue Service (SFRS) and Forestry and Land Scotland.

    The meeting heard that progress has been made in bringing the fire under control today, but that the incident remains ongoing. People are being urged to stay away from the area and any nearby residents should keep their doors and windows closed.

    Ms Constance said:

    “I am extremely grateful to all the first responders who have been working hard to control this fire since it was first reported on Thursday. Thanks to their efforts, significant progress has been made and the situation is currently under control.

    “I am reassured to hear that so far there has been no damage to properties or mature woodland. However, this remains an on-going incident and the situation will be re-assessed at first light.

    “Earlier this week the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service issued an extreme wildfire warning due to the dry conditions across much of Scotland. As we continue to see a period of warm and dry weather, it’s essential that all of us act responsibly while enjoying the outdoors so we can keep the number of wildfires at an absolute minimum.”

    Background

    An extreme wildfire warning was issued by SFRS earlier this week.

    SFRS advises people to always follow the Scottish Outdoor Access Code and has a range of safety advice for wildfire prevention on its website.

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI USA: STANDING WITH 9/11 ADVOCATES, SCHUMER & GILLIBRAND DEMAND TRUMP ADMIN FULLY RESTORE WORLD TRADE CENTER HEALTH PROGRAM STAFF & STOP PLAYING DANGEROUS GAMES; RECENT FIRINGS JEOPARDIZE HEALTHCARE; MORE…

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for New York Charles E Schumer
    The World Trade Center Health Program Provides Services For Roughly 137,000 Sickened 9/11 First Responders & Other Survivors & Heroes Across Nation; Trump Admin Keeps Playing Games With Staff, The Program – And The People Who Need Care; Schumer & Gillibrand Say It Must End NOW
    Two Days Ago, Another 16 WTCHP Staff Members Fired On Top Of Earlier Cuts At NIOSH; Continuity Of Care At Risk; Schumer & Gillibrand Have Worked For Years To Fund & Fortify The Program So Heroes Can Live Their Lives; Now, Trump Admin Is Delivering Total Chaos, Even As Some Downplay This Is All Just A “Mistake”
    Schumer, Gillibrand to Trump: Clean Up The Mess You Made & Fully Restore Every Aspect Of The Successful 9/11 Health Program—Now  
    As chaos swirls regarding the future of the World Trade Center Health Program (WTCHP), made worse in recent days with a slew of contradicting public information, U.S. Senators Charles Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand stood with 9/11 community leaders and demanded the Trump administration fully restore key staff for the World Trade Center Health Program and stop playing dangerous games. Schumer said that in the matter of days, some have said this torrent of chaos—essential NIOSH and WTCHP firings and staff cuts—are an innocent ‘mistake,’ all while people are still being fired.
    Schumer, today, said these actions by President Trump are not accidents. Schumer said that these actions appear to be very real choices—bad ones that hurt New York and our 9/11 heroes.
    “It is revolting that President Trump and Secretary Kennedy, Secretary of Health and Human Services, fired staffers at the World Trade Center Health Program, including its administrator, Dr. John Howard, a Trump appointee who has dedicated his life to serving 9/11 families and who’s respected by all sides of the aisle. Even with the apparent return of Dr. Howard, President Trump and Secretary Kennedy are effectively working to shut the World Trade Center Health Program down. This is the third time this has happened so it’s pretty clear these are not “mistakes.” Some of the Trump supporters who care about the 9/11 program are saying it’s a mistake. It seems clear it’s on purpose, so today we are demanding real action,” said U.S. Senator Charles Schumer.
    “The uncertainty surrounding the WTCHP is dangerous and unacceptable for the thousands of 9/11 responders and survivors who risked their lives in our nation’s darkest hour,” said Senator Gillibrand. “The Trump administration is using our nation’s heroes as political pawns while critical questions surrounding the program’s funding and staffing cuts remain. This is completely unacceptable and disrespectful to the 9/11 responders and survivors who protected our nation when we were under attack and are now suffering from life-threatening health ramifications from that day.” 
    “In the past 24 years since September 11th, 2001 the FDNY has lost 398 heroes to World Trade Center illnesses, and thousands more continue to suffer the effects of their toxic exposure, even with the excellent efforts of the WTC Health Care Programs many more will be lost. These last two interruptions to the program; although reversed, should never have occurred. In December the WTC Health Care Program Funding Correction Bill was agreed upon by a bi-partisan effort and was going to ensure the program would be funded until 2040. That bill was taken out of the Continuing Resolution and it was never restored. This Administration needs to make it a top priority that this bill gets passed as soon as possible, so that America can fulfill its promise to ‘Never Forget’ those who suffer and die now, because they answered the call 24 years ago,” said President Andrew Ansbro of UFA, Uniformed Firefighters Association.
    “The cuts to NIOSH & the CDC which directly affect the WTC Health Program tear the program to its core and will directly affect the tens of thousands of responders and survivors who depend on the program to stay alive and is a potential death sentence to those Responders and Survivors who will become sick in the days, months and years to follow from exposure to the toxic dust,” said Gary Smiley of FDNY EMS Local 2507, Uniformed EMTs, Paramedics & Fire Inspectors, WTC Liaison.
    “The World Trade Center Health Program must be made whole, it must be fully funded and this program must stay off the table for any future cuts,” said Sean Michael, FDNY Battalion Chief, Uniformed Fire Officers Association Board Member.
    “While the reinstatement of Dr John Howard as administrator of the World Trade Center Health Program is good news, this is only the first step in repairing the damage that is being done. All of the other staff of the World Trade Center Health Program (WTCHP), the CDC and NIOSH staff that support and work on behalf of 9/11 responders and survivors need to be restored immediately. Right now, the treatment of sick and injured 9/11 responders and survivors is being impacted by these staff cuts, despite what Secretary Kennedy is saying,” said Benjamin Chevat, Executive Director of Citizens for the Extension of the James Zadroga Act. 
    “I want to thank our Senators for their steadfast leadership. I want to thank Congressman Garbarino for his passion and commitment to help restore Dr. Howard’s job. And I understand they want to thank the administration for restoring Dr. Howard but I sort of think it is like thanking the arsonist who started the fire. Secretary Kennedy has been disingenuous and contradicted himself. The Secretary said no impact on care but that is a LIE! Proof that he is grossly unqualified for title of HSS Secretary. The 21-year-old DOGE frat kids use AI to do these cuts and firings. Last time I checked real people with real illnesses worked on the pile or lived, worked or went to school in lower Manhattan,” said John Feal, 9/11 Advocate.  
    “This is a life or death situation, not the time to be playing musical chairs at HHS. The government can call all the pauses it wants to. 9/11 related cancer isn’t gonna listen and won’t stop coming. The WTC staff must be restored now,” said Mariama James, WTCHP participant.
    “None of these cuts have anything to do with efficiency. This is MAGA extremism pure and simple that hurts our brave first responders and others, who risked life and limb on 9/11, who rushed to the towers. They’re suffering, they’re getting cancers from the chemicals they breathed in when they ran to the towers to help protect us. Do you want to cut that help off to these heroes? How un-American can that be? How vicious, how nasty, how callous,” Schumer added.
    Schumer and Gillibrand urged an end to these ‘games,’ and said that the WTCHP saves lives, and that recent firings and overall funding threats raise more questions than answers for New York and the nation. The senators said that this chaos is a dereliction of duty by the federal government, a disservice that must be reversed, so that the 9/11 health program, its staff, the federal government and the amazing medical professionals can all do their jobs: save lives. Schumer and Gillibrand said that they will not rest until this chaos is over. 9/11 advocates like John Feal, Sean Michael, Tom Hart, Andrew Ansbro, Gary Smiley and Mariama James all spoke, as well.
    On Friday, amid NIOSH firings that included critical staff, and Dr. John Howard, Newsday reported that sixteen World Trade Center Health Program employees received notices that they could lose their jobs in the Health and Human Services Department’s downsizing, ‘despite promises the program’s staff would not be reduced.’ Benjamin Chevat, executive director of Citizens for the Extension of the James Zadroga Act, told Newsday Friday that he learned that 16 of the current 86 WTC Health Program staff members had been put on notice that they are in line to be dismissed.
    The World Trade Center Health Program (WTCHP) provides critical medical treatment, research, and monitoring to over 137,000 responders and survivors of the September 11th terrorist attacks, living in every state and nearly every Congressional district. The WTCHP serves first responders and survivors from the World Trade Center and lower Manhattan, the Pentagon, and the crash site in Shanksville, Pennsylvania. This vital program provides life-saving care to the heroes who answered the call to serve in one of our nation’s darkest hours and the survivors who are forced to live with the health consequences from the attacks every single day. 
    Schumer and Gillibrand worked to establish the WTCHP on a bipartisan basis in 2011 with a five-year authorization to provide medical treatment and monitoring for 9/11 responders and survivors suffering from the effects of the toxins at Ground Zero. They worked to reauthorize the program in 2015 and extended through 2090 with bipartisan support. In 2022, Schumer and Gillibrand delivered $1 billion for the WTCHP in the end-of-year spending bill, and in 2023, they secured an additional $676 million for the program.

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Global: Wave energy’s huge potential could finally be unlocked by the power of sound – new research

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Usama Kadri, Reader of Applied Mathematics, Cardiff University

    Water good idea. Andrei Armiagov

    Ocean waves have long been seen as having huge potential as a source of renewable energy. Waves produce an estimated 50 trillion to 80 trillion watts of power worldwide – nearly two to three times the world’s current annual energy consumption.

    Many devices have been designed to capture and convert waves’ great power into electricity, but today’s technologies face challenges in efficiency, particularly in deeper waters. As a result, wave energy hasn’t yet taken off as a renewable source in the same way as wind and solar.

    One way around this problem lies in the interaction between two types of waves: those on the ocean’s surface, and those that reside underwater. My research group has just published a paper demonstrating how underwater sound waves can be used to make surface waves more powerful, potentially making them a more viable source of energy.

    The same insights could also eventually be used to reduce the risks of tsunamis by making them smaller. In addition, in a second new paper we show how underwater waves can be used to improve today’s tsunami early-warning system.

    The waves on the surface of the ocean are often created by a combination of wind raising up water and gravity pulling it back down – hence they’re sometimes referred to as surface-gravity waves. On the other hand, their underwater counterparts are sound waves produced by phenomena like earthquakes or volcanic eruptions, sometimes thousands of metres below the surface.

    These acoustic waves travel by compressing and expanding the water, similar to how sound moves through the air. They travel across transoceanic distances at the speed of sound in the water (around 1,500 metres per second) before eventually dissipatin. Surface waves travel at much lower speeds, in the order of tens of metres per second.

    In classical water wave theory, these two types of waves are considered separate entities, each living in its own world at its own rhythm. The possibility of them interacting only arose on the back of a 2013 research paper that I co-authored, which prompted my colleagues and I to research a phenomenon known as triad resonance.

    This is where two acoustic waves transfer energy to a surface wave by matching its frequency, which in turn causes the surface wave to get larger and more powerful (by increasing its amplitude). This opens up the possibility of using an acoustic wave generator to generate sound waves tuned to a particular size and frequency that would enhance (or equally suppress) surface waves.

    Enhanced waves would enable today’s wave turbines and oscillating water columns (which use wave power to force air through a turbine) to produce more electricity, effectively overcoming their efficiency problem.

    Acoustic waves could enhance the power of surface waves.
    Wonderful Nature

    The main requirement would be an acoustic wave generator that could be finely tuned at the required scale. Acoustic wave generators already exist for laboratory purposes, so it’s a question of scaling up an existing technology.

    Our research findings show that triad resonance can increase surface wave heights by more than 30%. Of course, the generator would require energy, though the hope is that this too could be powered by waves to minimise carbon emissions. One additional challenge is to ensure that methods are developed to use the acoustic energy efficiently to ensure that the least possible energy is wasted.

    Our next step is to produce some more numerical simulations and to conduct a series of small-scale laboratory experiments looking at how triad resonance works in practice. These will help refine our theories and assess their feasibility, hopefully with a view to turning this into a commercial reality.

    Tsunami mitigation

    I originally suggested the possibility of reducing the height of tsunami waves by manipulating underwater acoustic waves back in 2017. In the new paper, we look at this in more detail.

    We found that the resonance mechanism certainly took place at an oceanic scale during the 2022 Tonga earthquake and tsunami. This shows that it’s theoretically possible to manipulate the size of a tsunami using our technique.

    The challenge lies in generating and directing the acoustic waves at the required scale and configuration in real-world conditions. This would be more challenging than using acoustic waves to help harness wave energy, not least because of the scale of tsunamis, which would necessitate a much more powerful acoustic-wave generator.

    Other issues to overcome would be knowing the exact properties of the tsunami in real time, and the risk that using the wrong configurations could actually make the wave bigger instead of smaller.

    While it could take some time to make this feasible, acoustic waves can also potentially help to mitigate tsunamis in a different way. Our second paper demonstrates that monitoring and analysing these waves in real time could complement the existing and emerging technologies for predicting tsunamis, including ocean buoys and seismometers.

    There are currently thousands of seismometers deployed around the world, but they only monitor earthquakes, whereas tsunamis can also be caused by landslides, explosions and volcanic eruptions. Even with earthquakes, large seismic readings don’t always entail large tsunamis. This can lead to false alarms, such as in Alaska in 2018.

    Meanwhile ocean buoys, which measure sea levels and water pressure, are often faulty because of their operating conditions, and also relatively slow at giving warnings when tsunamis (according to my calculations) can move at speeds of up to 200m per second in the deep ocean.

    A complementary system is to measure acoustic waves using an underwater microphone known as a hydrophone. These capture the acoustic waves created by all of the phenomena that cause tsunamis, and the speed at which these waves travel means that just 30 hydrophone stations could cover the entire world’s tsunami high risk areas.

    This could be particularly life-saving for coastal communities near the source of a tsunami. It would also support global goals for more resilient coastal cities, such as Unesco’s aim to make all such places “tsunami ready” by 2030.

    Usama Kadri receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust: Research Project Grant number 523930.

    ref. Wave energy’s huge potential could finally be unlocked by the power of sound – new research – https://theconversation.com/wave-energys-huge-potential-could-finally-be-unlocked-by-the-power-of-sound-new-research-253422

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Auckland storm recovery moves into solution mode

    Source: Auckland Council

    As Auckland Council’s storm recovery office wraps up assessing 3500 homes affected by 2023 storms, the focus now shifts to delivering solutions — including completing a programme of 1200 voluntary buy-outs for those in high-risk homes.

    “It’s been a massive, complex and emotional journey — especially for those waiting to find out what the future holds for their home and wider community,” says Mace Ward, Group Recovery Manager for the Tāmaki Makaurau Recovery Office.

    “Reaching this point is a significant milestone, made possible by an enormous team effort. More than 30 organisations have contributed technical experts to help us get here, including some from other regions, even overseas.” 

    Of the 3500 properties assessed, nearly 60 per cent have been cleared of serious risk. The remaining homes have been assessed as facing an intolerable risk to life from future storm events. Of these, 1200 are eligible for a buy-out, while 180 will have their risk reduced through targeted property or community infrastructure solutions.

    Mace Ward, Group Recovery Manager

    Up to 1200 high risk (Category 3) homes will be removed or made safe across Auckland

    Addressing risk 

    “Now that we have a detailed understanding of future risk across storm-affected areas, we can focus on delivering the best solutions for those at risk,” says Mr Ward. 

    “We’ve already completed buy-outs for more than 600 high-risk properties and continue supporting the remaining Category 3 homeowners and tenants through the process, so they can move forward with their lives. While we’ve allowed as much flexibility as we can with timing, we do have a deadline for Government funding so we need to get on with removing buildings or making them safe.”

    Funding for recovery from 2023 storms is supported by a major cost sharing agreement between Auckland Council and the Government worth over $2 billion. 

    [embedded content]

    This month councillors will consider a new policy to guide future use of Category 3 land. A business case has just been approved to pave the way for stage one of flood reduction project design, consenting and early enabling works in suburbs along Wairau waterways. In Māngere works will kick off later this month for two major flood reduction projects worth $53m. Detailed investigations are also underway for an approved project to reduce flooding in neighbourhoods around Clover Drive in Rānui.  

    “Compared to other natural disasters of this scale, we’re in a strong position just two years on,” says Mr Ward. “We’ve had to build every process from scratch and do it quickly, under a new government framework. All this while working with communities who are still carrying the trauma and disruption of what they’ve been through. 

    Two confirmed projects in Māngere will reduce flood risk for hundreds of homes

    The path ahead 

    “There’s still a lot to do — from getting spades in the ground for flood reduction projects, to removing most of the high-risk homes and then making decisions about how that land can be used in the future. But with these big pieces of work underway, we’re heading down a very positive path to recovery and future resilience.”

    Meanwhile, community-led recovery planning is well underway across affected areas allowing communities themselves to determine what recovery looks like at the local level — supported by dedicated recovery funding. Wellbeing support continues for 555 affected residents, with the Storm Recovery Navigation Service having supported more than 2000 whānau since the storms.

    To ensure council and communities are better prepared for the next recovery, work is also underway to capture lessons and opportunities from the recovery programme so far. Council welcomed recent support from the Minister Responsible for the RMA for changes that will help better manage development in high-risk hazard areas.

    Unveiling Pou Hihiri – a new sculpture commemorating the impact of Cyclone Gabrielle in the Muriwai community

    Recovery progress information

    The categorisation programme is a voluntary programme assessing homes affected by 2023 storms specifically for ‘intolerable risk to life’ from future storms.

    Final Categories Number of properties
    Total registered 3550
    Category 1 (no intolerable risk to life) 1988
    Category 2C (community mitigation will reduce intolerable risk to life 32
    Category 2P (property mitigation will reduce intolerable risk to life 147
    Category 3 (intolerable risk to life that can’t be reasonably mitigated) 1195
    Withdrawn/ineligible 1840

    Buy-out progress

    When Category 3 homeowners opt into the buy-out programme, the are provided a council valuation based on the value of the property at 26 January 2023 (the day before the first major storm in 2023). They also have access to a $5,000 contribution for professional fees which can be used toward legal fees or the cost of getting their own valuation.

    When they are happy to move forward with a valuation, the sale and purchase agreement is instructed, the offer accepted, and the buy-out settled at the agreed settlement date. With each situation being unique, we are working as flexibly as we can to support homeowners to make their decisions – while remaining fair across the programme. 

     Buy-out stage  Number of properties
     Council valuations communicated  915
     Sale and purchase agreements instructed  768
     Buy-out offers accepted  715
     Buy-out offers settled  631

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Restrictions on outdoor fires ease in Tāmaki Makaurau

    Source: Auckland Council

    Fire and Emergency New Zealand has eased the restrictions on outdoor fires in Auckland City, Waitematā and Counties Manukau from 8am on Monday 7 April, until further notice.

    All three districts will move from a prohibited fire season to a restricted fire season, which means open air fires will be allowed if people have a permit from Fire and Emergency. They can apply for this at checkitsalright.nz.

    The exception is the Hauraki Gulf Islands, which remain in a prohibited fire season.

    Fire and Emergency New Zealand’s Counties Manukau District Manager Geoff Purcell says rainfall and lower overnight temperatures have lowered the fire danger across the region, but there is still some fire risk.

    “Most of Tāmaki Makaurau is still in drought-like conditions, so we’re being careful about where, when and how people light their outdoor fires.

    “Before lighting a fire, always go to checkitsalright.nz to find out what’s allowed at your location and apply for a fire permit if required.”

    Read more information on fires on the council’s website: Check if you can light a fire in your area

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Protecting our endangered fish

    Source: Environment Canterbury Regional Council

    Members of our Land Management and Biodiversity teams, along with representatives from EOS, ACCG and several local farmers, travelled to Corbies Creek to learn from Department of Conservation (DOC) rangers and Martha Jolly, who is completing her PhD at the University of Canterbury on built and natural barriers protecting native fish species.

    “These populations of endangered fish species are really small and fragmented,” Jolly said.

    Of particular note is the lowland longjaw galaxid, one of Aotearoa/New Zealand’s most endangered fish.

    “We have seven known populations left, all at risk of extinction through extreme events like floods, droughts and invasion by bigger predatory fish such as trout,” she said.

    Together with partners across the region, we have funded deliberate fish passage barriers to protect indigenous biodiversity in a practice known as isolation management.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-Evening Report: Biosecurity policies can be annoying – but a century of Antarctic data shows they work  

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Leihy, Ecologist, Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research

    Visitors to Australia are often shocked at having to declare an apple or wooden item under our biosecurity policies. Biosecurity policies are used to keep out pest species and diseases. But they’re expensive to uphold and people can question their worth.

    The good news is, they work – and Antarctica’s strict biosecurity policies prove it.

    Under the web of agreements governing Antarctica, cargo must be checked for any sign of plants, seeds, insects and rodents. Visitors must ensure the items they bring are clean.

    In our new research, we analysed a century of data on how many species have been introduced to the icy continent and surrounding sub-Antarctic islands.

    Though there’s little human presence here, many species have been introduced and several have established – including rodents, aphids, and weedy plants – in a surprisingly short time. But across most sub-Antarctic islands, we found the rate of introduced species has remained steady, or slowed, after biosecurity policies were introduced, even as more humans arrived.

    The exception was the Antarctic continent itself, where species introductions are increasing. This is likely due to surging visitor numbers and inconsistent biosecurity efforts between different nations and tourist operators.

    Our work shows biosecurity policies work – if they’re followed.

    Biosecurity in the cold

    Antartica and sub-Antarctic islands such as Heard and McDonald Islands have an exceptional richness of species. Wandering albatrosses and emperor penguins live nowhere else. Some islands are home to meadows of megaherbs.

    Unfortunately, introduced species have had dramatic effects. Mice eat albatrosses alive. Midges entirely change the functioning of terrestrial systems. Weedy plants outcompete and displace unusual plants on several islands.

    Antarctic environments are particularly susceptible to introduced species. New species tend to have faster life cycles and are more tolerant of disturbance. Most indigenous species evolved without predators or competitors.

    As the climate heats up, introduced species get a boost. Warmer conditions make it easier for them to get their first foothold, and they do better with warmer climates than do the indigenous species.

    These vulnerabilities are why nations responsible for sub-Antarctic islands and those who jointly govern Antarctica through the Antarctic Treaty put strict biosecurity protocols in place from the 1990s onwards.

    These policies ban the deliberate introduction of new species and specify the measures visitors and cargo have to undergo to reduce the chance of new species being introduced accidentally.

    These protocols include cleaning equipment, clothing and cargo. In many cases, these policies also require eradication of any potentially damaging species if found.

    Is it worth it?

    All this takes time and money. To do it properly requires many hours of inspections and specific facilities, among other things. Ongoing research is also needed, to ensure the policies keep working.

    But eradication of species once established is often even more expensive. Costs are rising globally. Invasive species have cost Australia at least A$390 billion since the 1960s. Eradicating introduced rabbits, rats and mice from Australia’s Macquarie Island cost about A$25 million.

    So, are our biosecurity efforts worth the cost?

    Assessing the effectiveness of biosecurity policies is rare because it is difficult. To properly gauge effectiveness, you need data from before and after the policy came in. It’s also hard to pinpoint when a species made the jump to the cold; it’s harder to spot one new plant than a thriving population years after the first seeds took root.

    We believe our work solves these problems. We collected data on species arrivals across the Antarctic region and corrected for biases using new mathematical approaches that account for differences in survey effort over time.

    Most species introductions now happen by accident. Because introductions are closely tied to the numbers of visitors, we expected more species would arrive as visitor numbers grew. But on most sub-Antarctic islands, that didn’t happen. Species arrived at the same rate or more slowly than expected, even as more visitors came.

    In other words, the policies are working.

    Why is Antarctica the exception?

    Since 1998, biosecurity policies for the Antarctic continent haven’t managed to slow the rates of introductions.

    Newly introduced species are largely being found on the Antarctic Peninsula, where most tourists and scientists go. The peninsula has the mildest climate of the whole continent and is where Antarctica’s native flowering plants are found, as well as mosses, lichens and fungi.

    The new arrivals include annual bluegrass which displaces native plants. Also arriving are invertebrates, such as midges and springtails which can alter how nutrients are cycled in soil and shift other ecosystem functions.

    It’s not fully clear why biosecurity policies aren’t working as well on the continent as for the islands. Likely causes include inconsistencies in how biosecurity is policed by different nations, a rapidly warming climate and very rapidly growing numbers of people to the peninsula.

    What does this mean for the world?

    Introduced species are one of the largest environmental and economic challenges we face, according to an authoritative recent assessment.

    This may seem surprising. But the unchecked impact of species such as red fire ants, varroa mite and feral pigs cost Australian farmers billions each year. Prevention is usually better – and cheaper – than the cure.

    What our research shows is that biosecurity policies actually work to protect the environment and are likely to be cheaper than the cost of control or eradication. Introduced species now cost the global economy an estimated $423 billion annually.

    Society and decision-makers can see environmental regulations as a cost without a benefit. Being able to show the real advantages of these regulations is vital.

    Rachel Leihy works for the Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research and Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. This research was done as a part of the Australian Research Council funded program Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future.

    Melodie McGeoch receives funding from the Australian Research Council – SRIEAS Grant SR200100005 Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future.

    Steven Chown receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is an Honorary life member of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research.

    ref. Biosecurity policies can be annoying – but a century of Antarctic data shows they work   – https://theconversation.com/biosecurity-policies-can-be-annoying-but-a-century-of-antarctic-data-shows-they-work-252494

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: New satellite data shows NZ’s major cities are sinking – meaning rising seas will affect them sooner

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jesse Kearse, Postdoctoral Researcher, Geophysics, Kyoto University

    Shutterstock/Jakub Maculewicz

    Rising seas are already affecting coastal communities in Aotearoa New Zealand. On a global average, the sea level is now 18 centimetres higher than it was in 1900, and the annual rate of increase has been accelerating to currently 4.4 millimetres per year.

    This may not seem much, but it is already amplifying the impact of storm and tidal surges. Over the coming decades and centuries, this will pose increasingly serious problems for all coastal communities.

    But this is not the end of our troubles. Some parts of New Zealand’s coastline are also sinking. In many New Zealand cities, shorelines are steadily subsiding, with growing impacts on coastal infrastructure.

    Our new research reveals where and how fast this is happening. We found the coastlines near all major cities in New Zealand are sinking a few millimetres each year, with some of the fastest rates in coastal suburbs of Christchurch, where the land is still adjusting to the impact of the 2011 earthquake.

    Relative increase in sea level

    Sea-level rise is happening globally because the ocean is expanding as it continues to warm and glaciers and polar ice sheets are melting.

    Meanwhile, land subsidence operates on regional or local scales, but it can potentially double or triple the effects of sea-level rise in certain places. This dual effect of rising seas and sinking land is know as relative sea-level rise and it gives coastal communities a more accurate projection of what they need to prepare for.

    To understand which parts of the coast are most at risk requires detailed and precise measurements of land subsidence. The key to this is to observe Earth from space.

    We have used a technique known as interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR). This involves the repeat acquisition of satellite radar images of the Earth’s surface, tied to very accurate global navigation satellite system measurements of ground stations.

    This builds on earlier work by the NZSeaRise project, which measured vertical land movement for every two kilometres of New Zealand’s coastline. Our study uses a significantly higher resolution (every ten metres in most places) and more recent datasets, highlighting previously missed parts of urban coastlines.

    Urban hotspots

    For instance, in Christchurch the previous NZSeaRise dataset showed very little subsidence at Southshore and New Brighton. The big differences in the new data are not due to the increase in spatial resolution, but because the rate of vertical land movement is very different from the time prior to the 2011 earthquake.

    Localised subsidence in these Christchurch suburbs is up to 8mm per year, among the fastest rates of urban subsidence we observed. These areas sit upon natural coastal sand dunes above the source area of the earthquake and the Earth’s crust is still responding to that sudden change in stress.

    This map shows vertical land movement (VLM) in Christchurch, highlighting areas that are sinking. The circles around the coastline show NZSeaRise estimates (2003-2011) and continous blue shading highlights new results (2018-2021).
    Jesse Kearse, CC BY-SA

    We have tracked vertical movement of the land with millimetre-scale precision for five major cities in New Zealand. The InSAR technique works particularly well in urban areas because the smooth surface of pavements, roads and buildings better reflects the satellite radar beam back into space where it is picked up by the orbiting satellite.



    This means the estimates of relative sea-level rise for these cities are close to or above 7mm per year. If sustained, this amounts to around 70cm of sea-level rise per century – enough to seriously threaten most sea defences.

    Our new satellite measurements provide a detailed picture of urban subsidence, even within single suburbs. It can vary by as much as 10mm per year between parts of a city, as this map of Dunedin and the Otago Harbour shows.

    This map shows vertical land movement (VLM) in Dunedin. The darker blue colours highlight parts of the city where land is sinking at a rate of 4mm per year or more.
    Jesse Kearse, CC BY-SA

    We found hotspots of very rapidly sinking regions. They tend to match areas of land that have been modified, particularly along the waterfront. During the 20th century, many acres of land were reclaimed from the ocean, and this new land is still compacting, creating an unstable base for the overlying infrastructure.

    One example of this is in Porirua Harbour, where a section of reclaimed land near the mouth of Porirua Stream is sinking at 3–5mm per year. This is more than double the average rate for Porirua’s coast.

    Rapidly sinking regions often match areas of land that have been modified or reclaimed, such as along the waterfront of Porirua Harbour.
    Jesse Kearse, from http://retrolens.nz, licensed by Land Information NZ, CC BY-SA

    Paradoxically, perhaps, it is only by looking back on our planet from outer space that we can begin to see with sufficient detail what is happening to the land in our own backyard.

    The good news is that we can use the results to identify coastlines that are particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise and plan accordingly for any future development. Our new measurements are just the first step in what must become a major effort to watch the ups and downs of our coastlines and urban areas.

    Jesse Kearse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. New satellite data shows NZ’s major cities are sinking – meaning rising seas will affect them sooner – https://theconversation.com/new-satellite-data-shows-nzs-major-cities-are-sinking-meaning-rising-seas-will-affect-them-sooner-252881

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: NZ Transport Agency and Ashburton District Council working together on second Ashburton Bridge

    Source: New Zealand Transport Agency

    NZ Transport Agency Waka Kotahi (NZTA) and Ashburton District Council in recent days signed an agreement to manage the construction of the second Ashburton bridge and connecting road as one project.

    NZTA will tender the full work package as a design and build project later this year.

    The NZTA board officially approved the project at its meeting in the past week, allowing the work on the ground to now get underway, says NZTA’s Acting Director Regional Relationships Ian Duncan.

    Central Government will fund the 360-metre bridge plus embankments from Chalmers Ave to Carters Terrace. Ashburton District Council will fund the connecting local road from Carters Terrace to Grahams Road.

    “This second bridge is so important for our community,” says Ashburton Mayor Neil Brown. “I’m excited all the necessary paperwork to get it started is now signed and sealed. The agreement Council has signed with NZTA means we will soon see and approve concept plans for the second bridge and connecting road, and then have regular meetings during the construction period to ask questions and ensure it is done in a timely manner.”

    Ashburton District Council has been buying property for the project since a land designation was confirmed in 2014, and the bridge and connecting road are shown in the District Plan.

    Mayor Brown said the project could be completed away from existing traffic routes, given it will be part of a new local road network, without major disruption to residents and travellers.

    “There’ll be a roundabout at the intersection of South Street and Chalmers Avenue, and another at the end of the new connecting road and Grahams Road, and a footpath on the Tinwald side of the new road.

    “We’re looking forward to seeing physical works starting as early as possible in 2026, and Council will have a better idea of how much the road section will cost once the tender process is complete.”

    Council will talk with the community about how it will fund the road construction once the costs are known, Mr Brown says.

    “The most important thing for everyone to know is that this project can finally begin, and our town will be a lot more resilient and our roads much safer when it is complete.”

    NZTA’s Ian Duncan says he is pleased to see progress on this project, acknowledging the second bridge will provide significant resilience and new road connection across the Ashburton/Hakatere River, using modern design and build techniques.

    The 2021 flood highlighted the vulnerability of the existing SH1 Ashburton bridge and the wider state highway network, so a second bridge provides insurance in the event the SH1 bridge is unable to be used for whatever reason.

    Ashburton people may see geotechnical investigations underway on site in coming days and weeks and the start of the procurement and tendering process.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI Banking: African Development Bank and Mozambique launch drone-based initiative to strengthen country’s disaster preparedness

    Source: African Development Bank Group
    The African Development Bank, the government of Mozambique, and Korea’s government agency Busan Technopark have launched an innovative drone-driven initiative to strengthen disaster preparedness in Mozambique, a country frequently hit by floods, mudslides, cyclones, and other weather-related crises.
    The launch event took…

    MIL OSI Global Banks

  • MIL-OSI USA: Forecasting Coastal Retreat Along U.S. South Atlantic Coast by Year 2100

    Source: US Geological Survey

    An example of calibration and validation of CoSMoS-COAST using historical satellite-derived shoreline data. The figure shows the extent of the CoSMoS-COAST U.S. South Atlantic Coast model transects (panel A—in green) with a zoomed in section of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina (panel B), which shows a close-up of the 50 m transect spacing (green lines). Click “View Media Details” for the full explanation of the figure.

    Wave-Driven vs. Sea-Level-Driven Coastal Change

    Coastal change is influenced by a variety of processes, including wave action, sediment movement, storm overwash, and erosion of dunes and cliffs. While past shoreline retreat on open-ocean coasts has primarily been driven by waves, the study finds that sea-level rise is expected to play an increasingly dominant role in the future as global temperatures continue to climb.

    Until now, few models have been capable of accurately and efficiently simulating the wide range of factors that drive long-term coastal change. In this study, new modeling overcomes these limitations by integrating historical satellite data, wave and sea-level projections, and large-scale shoreline-change patterns to predict how coastlines will evolve under different climate scenarios.

    A Retreating Coastline

    Using this advanced modeling approach, researchers found that under a 1.0-meter rise in sea level scenario, 63% of shorelines along the South Atlantic Coast are projected to retreat beyond the current extent of sandy beaches. Under a 2.0-meter rise, that number jumps to 94%, meaning nearly all sandy shorelines in the region could disappear or shift significantly inland.

    These findings highlight the increasing vulnerability of coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems to rising seas. Without large-scale interventions—such as beach nourishment, dune restoration, or seawalls—many beaches could face severe erosion, leaving less natural protection against storm surges and flooding.

    Implications for the Future

    The study points to the urgency of planning for long-term coastal resilience. Coastal communities and policymakers will need to weigh difficult decisions about adaptation strategies, from managed retreat to costly engineering solutions.

    By providing a scalable, data-driven model that captures historical shoreline behavior and future uncertainties, the new study offers a powerful tool for predicting coastal change and guiding climate adaptation efforts. As sea levels continue to rise, understanding where and how shorelines will retreat will be critical for protecting people, infrastructure, and ecosystems along the U.S. South Atlantic coastline. 

    Read the study, Scalable, data-assimilated models predict large-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise, in Scientific Reports.

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI USA: SPC Apr 6, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

    Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

     For best viewing experience, please enable browser JavaScript support.

    Apr 6, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

    Updated: Sun Apr 6 12:39:32 UTC 2025 (Print Version |   |  )

    Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

     Forecast Discussion

    SPC AC 061239

    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0739 AM CDT Sun Apr 06 2025

    Valid 061300Z – 071200Z

    …THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
    SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI…CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA…WESTERN
    GEORGIA…AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…

    …SUMMARY…
    A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat is possible today across
    parts of the Southeast. Marginally severe wind gusts will also be
    possible in parts of the southern Appalachians into southern
    Virginia.

    …Synopsis…
    Elongated upper troughing currently extends from the central Plains
    southwestward through northern Mexico. A shortwave trough embedded
    within this larger upper troughing is currently moving northeastward
    through OK, while another embedded shortwave trough exists farther
    west over northwest Mexico. The surface pattern features a modest
    low over east-central MS, with a cold front extending southwestward
    through southeast LA. An outflow boundary also intersects this low,
    extending northeastward into northern GA. An extensive line of
    thunderstorms exists along these boundaries in relatively continuous
    line from south-central MS into northeast AL.

    The parent upper trough is forecast to gradually move eastward
    throughout the day, likely ending the period extended from the Ozark
    Plateau into central Mexico, with the embedded shortwaves making
    farther eastward/northeastward progression as well. The surface low
    is also expected to move gradually northeastward, with the cold
    front and associated convective line moving eastward throughout the
    day.

    …Southeast…
    The airmass downstream of the ongoing convective line mentioned in
    the synopsis is characterized by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
    Thermodynamic profiles are expected to remain relatively warm
    throughout the day, but the low-level moisture already in place
    should still support at least modest buoyancy ahead of the line as
    it progresses eastward. Though the strongest upper-level winds will
    be behind the front, sufficient mid-level flow parallel to the
    boundary combined with the modest buoyancy should maintain
    convective organization. Primary severe risk with this linear
    convection will be damaging gusts. Moderate to strong low-level flow
    is expected to persist along and ahead of the convective line as
    well, resulting in veering low-level wind profiles and enough
    low-level shear to support embedded supercells capable of wind
    damage and tornadoes.

    As mentioned in MCD #425, some near-term (i.e. through mid-morning)
    increase in convective organization is possible, due to a
    persistence of the strong low-level flow and deepening meso-low.
    This increased organization would resultant in a greater potential
    for strong gusts and/or tornadoes.

    …Southern Appalachians/Piedmont…
    Warmer air aloft is expected to have a greater influence over these
    regions. With less buoyancy anticipated through the
    morning/afternoon, convective intensity should remain muted. Given
    the strong shear across these areas, a few strong to severe storms
    may produce wind damage.

    ..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/06/2025

    CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

    .html”>Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today’s Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI USA: SPC Tornado Watch 132

    Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
    SEL2

    URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Tornado Watch Number 132
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1000 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

    * Tornado Watch for portions of
    Southern and Eastern Alabama
    Florida Panhandle
    Western and Northern Georgia
    Coastal Waters

    * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1000 AM until
    600 PM CDT.

    * Primary threats include…
    A couple tornadoes possible
    Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

    SUMMARY…Severe storm potential, including a few supercells ahead
    of a convective line, may increase into the afternoon across the
    region, with the strongest storms posing a tornado risk aside from
    damaging winds.

    The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
    east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Atlanta GA to 50
    miles east of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see
    the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
    tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
    area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
    threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
    and possible warnings.

    &&

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 131…

    AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
    surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
    gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
    storm motion vector 24030.

    …Guyer

    SEL2

    URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Tornado Watch Number 132
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1000 AM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

    * Tornado Watch for portions of
    Southern and Eastern Alabama
    Florida Panhandle
    Western and Northern Georgia
    Coastal Waters

    * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1000 AM until
    600 PM CDT.

    * Primary threats include…
    A couple tornadoes possible
    Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

    SUMMARY…Severe storm potential, including a few supercells ahead
    of a convective line, may increase into the afternoon across the
    region, with the strongest storms posing a tornado risk aside from
    damaging winds.

    The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
    east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Atlanta GA to 50
    miles east of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see
    the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
    tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
    area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
    threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
    and possible warnings.

    &&

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 131…

    AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
    surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
    gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
    storm motion vector 24030.

    …Guyer

    Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
    SAW2
    WW 132 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 061500Z – 062300Z
    AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
    25N ATL/ATLANTA GA/ – 50E MOB/MOBILE AL/
    ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /22N ATL – 39WSW CEW/
    HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
    MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

    LAT…LON 33988312 30678615 30678867 33988574

    THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
    FOR WOU2.

    Watch 132 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

    Note:  Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes

    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

    Mod (40%)

    Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

    Low (20%)

    Wind

    Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

    Mod (40%)

    Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

    Low (10%)

    Hail

    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

    Low ( 2 inches

    Low (

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Security: Upper Tantallon — RCMP investigates fatal crash in Upper Tantallon

    Source: Royal Canadian Mounted Police

    RCMP Halifax Regional Detachment is investigating a fatal crash that occurred in Upper Tantallon.

    Yesterday, at approximately 9:25 a.m., RCMP Halifax Regional Detachment, fire, and EHS, responded to a report of a vehicle crash on Hwy. 103, near Exit 5.

    RCMP officers learned that a Toyota Matrix was travelling westbound when it left the roadway and entered the ditch.

    The driver and sole occupant of the vehicle, a 47-year-old woman from Dalhousie Junction, New Brunswick, was pronounced deceased at the scene.

    An RCMP collision reconstructionist attended the location of the crash; the investigation is ongoing.

    A section of Hwy. 103 was closed for several hours but has since reopened.

    Our thoughts are with the victim’s loved ones at this difficult time.

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-Evening Report: The graver Israel’s atrocities in Gaza, the quieter the BBC grows

    ANALYSIS: By Jonathan Cook

    The BBC’s news verification service, Verify, digitally reconstructed a residential tower block in Mandalay earlier this week to show how it had collapsed in a huge earthquake on March 28 in Myanmar, a country in Southeast Asia largely cut off from the outside world.

    The broadcaster painstakingly pieced together damage to other parts of the city using a combination of phone videos, satellite imagery and Nasa heat detection images.

    Verify dedicated much time and effort to this task for a simple reason: to expose as patently false the claims made by the ruling military junta that only 2000 people were killed by Myanmar’s 7.7-magnitude earthquake.

    The West sees the country’s generals as an official enemy, and the BBC wanted to show that the junta’s account of events could not be trusted. Myanmar’s rulers have an interest in undercounting the dead to protect the regime’s image.

    The BBC’s determined effort to strip away these lies contrasted strongly with its coverage — or rather, lack of it — of another important story this week.

    Israel has been caught in another horrifying war crime. Late last month, it executed 15 Palestinian first responders and then secretly buried them in a mass grave, along with their crushed vehicles.

    Israel is an official western ally, one that the United States, Britain and the rest of Europe have been arming and assisting in a spate of crimes against humanity being investigated by the world’s highest court. Fourteen months ago, the International Court of Justice ruled it was “plausible” that Israel was committing genocide in Gaza.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, is a fugitive from its sister court, the International Criminal Court. Judges there want to try him for crimes against humanity, including starving the 2.3 million people of Gaza by withholding food, water and aid.

    Israel is known to have killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, many of them women and children, in its 18-month carpet bombing of the enclave. But there are likely to be far more deaths that have gone unreported.

    This is because Israel has destroyed all of Gaza’s health and administrative bodies that could do the counting, and because it has created unmarked “kill zones” across much of the enclave, making it all but impossible for first responders to reach swathes of territory to locate the dead.

    The latest crime scene in Gaza is shockingly illustrative of how Israel murders civilians, targets medics and covers up its crimes — and of how Western media collude in downplaying such atrocities, helping Israel to ensure that the extent of the death toll in Gaza will never be properly known.

    Struck ‘one by one’
    Last Sunday, United Nations officials were finally allowed by Israel to reach the site in southern Gaza where the Palestinian emergency crews had gone missing a week earlier, on March 23. The bodies of 15 Palestinians were unearthed in a mass grave; another is still missing.

    All were wearing their uniforms, and some had their hands or legs zip-tied, according to eyewitnesses. Some had been shot in the head or chest. Their vehicles had been crushed before they were buried.

    Two of the emergency workers were killed by Israeli fire while trying to aid people injured in an earlier air strike on Rafah. The other 13 were part of a convoy sent to retrieve the bodies of their colleagues, with the UN saying Israel had struck their ambulances “one by one”.

    Even the usual excuses, as preposterous as they are, simply won’t wash in the case of Israel’s latest atrocity — which is why it initially tried to black out the story

    More details emerged during the week, with the doctor who examined five of the bodies reporting that all but one — which had been too badly mutilated by feral animals to assess — were shot from close range with multiple bullets. Ahmad Dhaher, a forensic consultant working at Nasser hospital in Khan Younis, said: “The bullets were aimed at one person’s head, another at their heart, and a third person had been shot with six or seven bullets in the torso.”

    Bashar Murad, the Red Crescent’s director of health programmes, observed that one of the paramedics in the convoy was in contact with the ambulance station when Israeli forces started shooting: “During the call, we heard the sound of Israeli soldiers arriving at the location, speaking in Hebrew.

    “The conversation was about gathering the [Palestinian] team, with statements like: ‘Gather them at the wall and bring some restraints to tie them.’ This indicated that a large number of the medical staff were still alive.”

    Jonathan Whittall, head of the UN office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs in Palestine, reported that, on the journey to recover the bodies, he and his team witnessed Israeli soldiers firing on civilians fleeing the area. He saw a Palestinian woman shot in the back of the head and a young man who tried to retrieve her body shot, too.

    Concealing slaughter
    The difficulty for Israel with the discovery of the mass grave was that it could not easily fall back on any of the usual mendacious rationalisations for war crimes that it has fed the Western media over the past year and a half, and which those outlets have been only too happy to regurgitate.

    Since Israel unilaterally broke a US-backed ceasefire agreement with Hamas last month, its carpet bombing of the enclave has killed more than 1000 Palestinians, taking the official death toll to more than 50,000. But Israel and its apologists, including Western governments and media, always have a ready excuse at hand to mask the slaughter.

    Israel disputes the casualty figures, saying they are inflated by Gaza’s Health Ministry, even though its figures in previous wars have always been highly reliable. It says most of those killed were Hamas “terrorists”, and most of the slain women and children were used by Hamas as “human shields”.

    Israel has also destroyed Gaza’s hospitals, shot up large numbers of ambulances, killed hundreds of medical personnel and disappeared others into torture chambers, while denying the entry of medical supplies.

    Israel implies that all of the 36 hospitals in Gaza it has targeted are Hamas-run “command and control centres”; that many of the doctors and nurses working in them are really covert Hamas operatives; and that Gaza’s ambulances are being used to transport Hamas fighters.

    Even if these claims were vaguely plausible, the Western media seems unwilling to ask the most obvious of questions: why would Hamas continue to use Gaza’s hospitals and ambulances when Israel made clear from the outset of its 18-month genocidal killing rampage that it was going to treat them as targets?

    Even if Hamas fighters did not care about protecting the health sector, which their parents, siblings, children, and relatives desperately need to survive Israel’s carpet bombing, why would they make themselves so easy to locate?

    Hamas has plenty of other places to hide in Gaza. Most of the enclave’s buildings are wrecked concrete structures, ideal for waging guerrilla warfare.

    Israeli cover-up
    Even the usual excuses, as preposterous as they are, simply won’t wash in the case of Israel’s latest atrocity — which is why it initially tried to black out the story.

    Given that it has banned all Western journalists from entering Gaza, killed unprecedented numbers of local journalists, and formally outlawed the UN refugee agency Unrwa, it might have hoped its crime would go undiscovered.

    But as news of the atrocity started to appear on social media last week, and the mass grave was unearthed on Sunday, Israel was forced to concoct a cover story.

    It claimed the convoy of five ambulances, a fire engine, and a UN vehicle were “advancing suspiciously” towards Israeli soldiers. It also insinuated, without a shred of evidence, that the vehicles had been harbouring Hamas and Islamic Jihad fighters.

    Once again, we were supposed to accept not only an improbable Israeli claim but an entirely nonsensical one. Why would Hamas fighters choose to become sitting ducks by hiding in the diminishing number of emergency vehicles still operating in Gaza?

    Why would they approach an Israeli military position out in the open, where they were easy prey, rather than fighting their enemy from the shadows, like other guerrilla armies — using Gaza’s extensive concrete ruins and their underground tunnels as cover?

    If the ambulance crews were killed in the middle of a firefight, why were some victims exhumed with their hands tied? How is it possible that they were all killed in a gun battle when the soldiers could be heard calling for the survivors to be zip-tied?

    And if Israel was really the wronged party, why did it seek to hide the bodies and the crushed vehicles under sand?

    ‘Deeply disturbed’
    All available evidence indicates that Israel killed all or most of the emergency crews in cold blood — a grave war crime.

    But as the story broke on Monday, the BBC’s News at Ten gave over its schedule to a bin strike by workers in Birmingham; fears about the influence of social media prompted by a Netflix drama, Adolescence; bad weather on a Greek island; the return to Earth of stranded Nasa astronauts; and Britain’s fourth political party claiming it would do well in next month’s local elections.

    All of that pushed out any mention of Israel’s latest war crime in Gaza.

    Presumably under pressure from its ordinary journalists — who are known to be in near-revolt over the state broadcaster’s persistent failure to cover Israeli atrocities in Gaza — the next day’s half-hour evening news belatedly dedicated 30 seconds to the item, near the end of the running order.

    This was the perfect opportunity for BBC Verify to do a real investigation, piecing together an atrocity Israel was so keen to conceal

    The perfunctory report immediately undercut the UN’s statement that it was “deeply disturbed” by the deaths, with the newsreader announcing that Israel claimed nine “terrorists” were “among those killed”.

    Where was the BBC Verify team in this instance? Too busy scouring Google maps of Myanmar, it would seem.

    If ever there was a region where its forensic, open-source skills could be usefully deployed, it is Gaza. After all, Israel keeps out foreign journalists, and it has killed Palestinian journalists in greater numbers than all of the West’s major wars of the past 150 years combined.

    This was the perfect opportunity for BBC Verify to do a real investigation, piecing together an atrocity Israel was so keen to conceal. It was a chance for the BBC to do actual journalism about Gaza.

    Why was it necessary for the BBC to contest the narrative of an earthquake in a repressive Southeast Asian country whose rulers are opposed by the West but not contest the narrative of a major atrocity committed by a Western ally?

    Missing in action
    This is not the first time that BBC Verify has been missing in action at a crucial moment in Gaza.

    Back in January 2024, Israeli soldiers shot up a car containing a six-year-old girl, Hind Rajab, and her relatives as they tried to flee an Israeli attack on Gaza City. All were killed, but before Hind died, she could be heard desperately pleading with emergency services for help.

    Two paramedics who tried to rescue her were also killed. It took two weeks for other emergency crews to reach the bodies.

    It was certainly possible for BBC Verify to have done a forensic study of the incident — because another group did precisely that. Forensic Architecture, a research team based at the University of London, used available images of the scene to reconstruct the events.

    It found that the Israeli military had fired 335 bullets into the small car carrying Hind and her family. In an audio recording before she was killed, Hind’s cousin could be heard telling emergency services that an Israeli tank was near them.

    The sound of the gunfire, most likely from the tank’s machine gun, indicates it was some 13 metres away — close enough for the crew to have seen the children inside.

    Not only did BBC Verify ignore the story, but the BBC also failed to report it until the bodies were recovered. As has happened so often before, the BBC dared not do any reporting until Israel was forced to confirm the incident because of physical evidence.

    We know from a BBC journalist-turned-whistleblower, Karishma Patel, that she pushed editors to run the story as the recordings of Hind pleading for help first surfaced, but she was overruled.

    When the BBC very belatedly covered Hind’s horrific killing online, in typical fashion, it did so in a way that minimised any pushback from Israel. Its headline, “Hind Rajab, 6, found dead in Gaza days after phone calls for help”, managed to remove Israel from the story.

    Evidence buried
    A clear pattern thus emerges. The BBC also tried to bury the massacre of the 15 Palestinian first responders — keeping it off its website’s main page — just as Israel had tried to bury the evidence of its crime in Gaza’s sand.

    The story’s first headline was: “Red Cross outraged over killing of eight medics in Gaza”. Once again, Israel was removed from the crime scene.

    Only later, amid massive backlash on social media and as the story refused to go away, did the BBC change the headline to attribute the killings to “Israeli forces”.

    But subsequent stories have been keen to highlight the self-serving Israeli claim that its soldiers were entitled to execute the paramedics because the presence of emergency vehicles at the scene of much death and destruction was “suspicious”.

    In one report, a BBC journalist managed to shoe-horn this same, patently ridiculous “defence” twice into her two-minute segment. She reduced the discovery of an Israeli massacre to mere “allegations”, while a clear war crime was soft-soaped as only an “apparent” one.

    Notably, the BBC has on one solitary occasion managed to go beyond other media in reporting an attack on an ambulance crew. The footage incontrovertibly showed a US-supplied Apache helicopter firing on the crew and a young family they were trying to evacuate.

    There was no possibility the ambulance contained “terrorists” because the documentary team were filming inside the vehicle with paramedics they had been following for months. The video was included near the end of a documentary on the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza, seen largely through the eyes of children.

    But the BBC quickly pulled that film, titled Gaza: How to Survive a War Zone, after the Israel lobby manufactured a controversy over one of its child narrators being the son of Gaza’s deputy Agriculture Minister, who served in the Hamas-run civilian government.

    Wholesale destruction
    The unmentionable truth, which has been evident since the earliest days of the 18-month genocide, is that Israel is intentionally dismantling and destroying Gaza’s health sector, piece by piece.

    According to the UN, Israel’s war has killed at least 1060 healthcare workers and 399 aid workers — those deaths it has been possible to identify — and wrecked Gaza’s health facilities. Israel has rounded up hundreds of medical staff and disappeared many of them into what Israeli human rights groups call torture chambers.

    One doctor, Dr Hussam Abu Safiya, director of the Kamal Adwan hospital in northern Gaza, has been held by Israel since he was abducted in late December. During brief contacts with lawyers, Dr Safiya revealed that he is being tortured.

    Other doctors have been killed in Israeli detention from their abuse, including one who was allegedly raped to death.

    Israel’s destruction of Gaza’s hospitals and execution of medical personnel is part of the same message: there is nowhere safe, no sanctuary, the laws of war no longer apply

    Why is Israel carrying out this wholesale destruction of Gaza’s health sector? There are two reasons. Firstly, Netanyahu recently reiterated his intent to carry out the complete ethnic cleansing of Gaza.

    He presents this as “voluntary migration”, supposedly in accordance with US President Donald Trump’s plan to relocate the enclave’s population of 2.3 million Palestinians to other countries.

    There can be nothing voluntary about Palestinians leaving Gaza when Israel has refused to allow any food or aid into the enclave for the past month, and is indiscriminately bombing Gaza. Israel’s ultimate intention has always been to terrify the population into flight.

    Israel’s ambassador to Austria, David Roet, was secretly recorded last month stating that “there are no uninvolved in Gaza”— a constant theme from Israeli officials. He also suggested that there should be a “death sentence” for anyone Israel accuses of holding a gun, including children.

    Meanwhile, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has threatened the “total devastation” of Gaza’s civilian population should they fail to “remove Hamas” from the enclave, something they are in no position to do.

    Not surprisingly, faced with the prospect of an intensification of the genocide and the imminent annihilation of themselves and their loved ones, ordinary people in Gaza have started organising protests against Hamas — marches readily reported by the BBC and others.

    Israel’s destruction of Gaza’s hospitals and execution of medical personnel is part of the same message: there is nowhere safe, no sanctuary, the laws of war no longer apply, and no one will come to your aid in your hour of need.

    You are alone against our snipers, drones, tanks and Apache helicopters.

    Too much to bear
    The second reason for Israel’s destruction of Gaza’s health sector is that we in the West, or at least our governments and media, have consented to Israel’s savagery — and actively participated in it — every step of the way. Had there been any meaningful pushback at any stage, Israel would have been forced to take another course.

    When David Lammy, Britain’s Foreign Secretary, let slip in Parliament last month the advice he has been receiving from his officials since he took up the job last summer — that Israel is clearly violating international law by starving the population — he was immediately rebuked by Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office.

    Let us not forget that Starmer, when he was opposition leader, approved Israel’s genocidal blocking of food, water and electricity to Gaza, saying Israel “had that right”.

    In response to Lammy’s comments, Starmer’s spokesperson restated the government’s view that Israel is only “at risk” of breaching international law — a position that allows the UK to continue arming Israel and providing it with intelligence from British spy flights over Gaza from a Royal Air Force base in Cyprus.

    Our politicians have consented to everything Israel has done, and not just in Gaza over the past 18 months. This genocide has been decades in the making.

    Three-quarters of a century ago, the West authorised the ethnic cleansing of most of Palestine to create a self-declared Jewish state there. The West consented, too, to the violent occupation of the last sections of Palestine in 1967, and to Israel’s gradual colonisation of those newly seized territories by armed Jewish extremists.

    The West nodded through waves of house demolitions carried out against Palestinian communities by Israel to “Judaise” the land. It backed the Israeli army creating extensive “firing zones” on Palestinian farmland to starve traditional agricultural communities of any means of subsistence.

    The West ignored Israeli settlers and soldiers destroying Palestinian olive groves, beating up shepherds, torching homes, and murdering families. Even being an Oscar winner offers no immunity from the rampant settler violence.

    The West agreed to Israel creating an apartheid road system and a network of checkpoints that kept Palestinians confined to ever-shrinking ghettoes, and building walls around Palestinian areas to permanently isolate them from the rest of the world.

    It allowed Israel to stop Palestinians from reaching one of their holiest sites, Al-Aqsa Mosque, on land that was supposed to be central to their future state.

    The West kept quiet as Israel besieged the two million people of Gaza for 17 years, putting them on a tightly rationed diet so their children would grow ever-more malnourished. It did nothing — except supply more weapons — when the people of Gaza launched a series of non-violent protests at their prison walls around the enclave, and were greeted with Israeli sniper fire that left thousands dead or crippled.

    The West only found a collective voice of protest on 7 October 2023, when Hamas managed to find a way to break out of Gaza’s choking isolation to wreak havoc in Israel for 24 hours. It has been raising its voice in horror at the events of that single day ever since, drowning out 18 months of screams from the children being starved and exterminated in Gaza.

    The murder of 15 Palestinian medics and aid workers is a tiny drop in an ocean of Israeli criminality — a barbarism rewarded by Western capitals decade after decade.

    This genocide was made in the West. Israel is our progeny, our ugly reflection in the mirror — which is why Western leaders and establishment media are so desperate to make us look the other way. That reflection is too much for anyone with a soul to bear.

    Jonathan Cook is a writer, journalist and media critic, and author of many books about Palestine. He is a winner of the Martha Gellhorn Special Prize for Journalism. Republished from the Middle East Eye and the author’s blog with permission.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI China: China’s Yunnan rescue team completes quake response in Myanmar

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    KUNMING, April 6 — A 37-member rescue and medical team from southwest China’s Yunnan Province returned from Myanmar on Sunday afternoon, after completing their earthquake relief work.

    A 7.9-magnitude quake struck Myanmar on March 28. At around 6:30 a.m. Beijing time on March 29, the team from Yunnan Province, which borders Myanmar, took off from Kunming — Yunnan’s capital city — to the quake-stricken areas in Myanmar boarding a flight, carrying with them life detectors, seismic warning systems, portable satellite telephones and drones.

    As the first Chinese rescue team to arrive in Myanmar, they immediately joined forces with local firefighters and rescuers to carry out rescue and medical operations in the severely-affected Naypyidaw, which lasted for over 150 hours.

    At 5 a.m. March 30 local time, the team, joined by local forces, rescued an elderly person who had been trapped for nearly 40 hours at a local hospital.

    A China Media Group report said on Wednesday that more than 500 Chinese rescue workers were in Myanmar for rescue and relief missions, all together. As of Thursday, Chinese rescue teams had successfully saved nine survivors from the quake-affected areas.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: 3 injured after Russia’s air attack on Kiev

    Source: China State Council Information Office

    At least three people were injured in a Russian ballistic missile attack on the Ukrainian capital early Sunday morning, Ukraine’s State Service for Emergencies said.

    Several explosions were heard on Sunday morning in Kiev as Russia launched a fresh wave of air attacks on the city, triggering the operation of its air defense, according to Kiev’s military administration.

    The air attack has caused fires in the urban districts of Darnytskyi and Obolon, and rescuers are heading to the scene, said the Kiev military administration in a post on the social platform Telegram.

    “Explosions in the capital. Air defense is in operation. Stay in shelters!” Mayor Vitali Klitschko was quoted as saying earlier on Telegram by media reports, adding: “The missile attack on Kiev is ongoing.”

    As of 7:16 a.m. local time (0416 GMT), 128 firefighters and 27 units of equipment were still working to deal with the aftermath of the strikes. 

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Coalition has announced an even more radical plan to cut international students than Labor. Here’s how it would work

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Norton, Professor of Higher Education Policy, Monash University

    Last year, the Coalition made the surprise decision to oppose Labor’s plans for new international student caps.

    On Sunday, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton proposed an even more radical policy of his own to limit the number of international students in Australia.

    He announced a combination of tighter enrolment limits, increased visa application fees and changes to temporary graduate visas, which allow some former students to remain in Australia to work.

    This is aimed at either deterring potential students from applying or stopping them from going to their preferred university.

    What’s the Coalition’s policy?

    The Coalition and Labor similarly argue high numbers of international students are putting pressure on housing markets.

    But the opposition is also concerned there are too many international students in some courses. They say some courses can have international enrolments of up to 80%.

    To address both problems, the Coalition proposes a maximum international student enrolment share at public universities (which is almost all universities in Australia). This would be around 25% of all commencing (or new) enrolments. Other education providers, such as private colleges and TAFEs, would face separate caps.

    The Coalition estimates this would result in 30,000 fewer new international students per year than Labor’s policy.

    What is happening under Labor?

    Last year, Labor wanted to give the education minister wide powers to cap international student enrolments by education provider, campus and course.

    Apart from some exempt categories (such as postgraduate research students), vocational and higher education providers would have been allocated 270,000 commencing enrolments between them for 2025. This is compared to 323,000 commencing enrolments in 2023.

    But the bill was opposed by the Greens and the Coalition. So Labor had to move to plan B.

    Using its migration powers, in December 2024, the government issued a ministerial direction on how the Department of Home Affairs should process applications for student visas. This is arguably a de facto cap.

    Immigration officials have been instructed to prioritise student visa applications for all institutions until they near the individual caps that were blocked by the Senate last year.

    Once visa applications are at 80% of each provider’s cap, subsequent applications go into a slower visa processing stream.




    Read more:
    International student numbers in Australia will be controlled by a new informal cap. Here’s how it will work


    Signs applications are already down

    Prospective international students cannot apply for a visa unless an education provider gives them a “confirmation of enrolment”.

    We are seeing signs the ministerial direction is leading to fewer “confirmations of enrolment” and resulting applications.

    My analysis below shows student visa applications for January and February 2025 are well down on equivalent months in 2024, 2023 and 2019 (pre-Covid).

    In late 2024, demand was below the boom times of 2023 and early 2024, but still above 2019.

    What does the Coalition’s plan mean for unis?

    Labor’s policy for university caps uses a formula based on past international student enrolments. The Coalition’s caps would be a percentage of total new enrolments. They expect this to be around 25%, but will set the precise number after consultation and receiving the most recent data.

    Coalition education spokesperson Sarah Henderson has expressed concerns high concentrations of international students have “not been good for our country or for the education outcomes of Australian students”.

    Based on 2023 enrolment data – the latest that also includes domestic students – 35% of new university students in Australia were from overseas. But several universities had international student shares above 50%.

    On the Coalition’s estimates, their policy would see no more than 115,000 new international students in public universities each year, down from 139,000 under Labor’s approach.

    The Coalition acknowledges this will particularly affect the highly ranked Group of Eight universities, including The University of Melbourne and The University of Sydney. Dutton argues these universities have admitted “excessive numbers” of international students.

    Coalition caps for private providers

    One reason the Coalition gave for not supporting Labor’s legislation last year was the disproportionate effect on private education providers, which include both vocational and higher education colleges.

    Under the Coalition’s plan, private providers will still have caps, but they will be different than those for universities. Exactly how this will work is unclear. Their combined caps will be “at most 125,000”, according to the Coalition. Under Labor’s policy, their combined cap is a little higher, at about 132,000.

    A complicating factor here is the government’s existing migration policies have smashed demand for vocational education – as my analysis shows.

    This means many vocational education providers may not be able to fully use the places allocated under Labor’s indicative cap. These shortfalls may create space to increase caps for other private education providers.

    Visa application fees

    Last year, in a bid to cut international student numbers, Labor more than doubled the student visa application fee from A$710 to $1,600. They subsequently reversed this for Pacific Islander applicants.

    Under the Coalition, the visa application fee would more than triple to $5,000 for applicants to Group of Eight universities. For students seeking entry to other providers, the fee would be $2,500.

    Temporary graduate visas

    The Coalition also promises a “rapid review” of the temporary graduate visa program. This would be to prevent its “misuse” as a way to gain access to the Australian labour market and permanent migration.

    Labor has already reduced the number of years former students can stay on temporary graduate visas, reduced the age limit to be granted a visa from 50 to 35 years, and increased the minimum English requirements.

    Applications for temporary graduate visas are down on past levels.

    While Labor’s changes made some potential visa applicants ineligible, recent applications could be the calm before the storm. Large numbers of 2023 and 2024 international students will complete their courses in the coming years, with many of them eligible for temporary graduate visas under current policies.

    International education will take a hit regardless

    The Coalition’s international student election policy is less of a surprise than its refusal to back Labor’s caps last year. They have foreshadowed tough policies many times in recent months.

    But the proposed increased visa application fees and enrolment caps would be painful for both students and education providers.

    Universities have repeatedly argued international students are not major causes of the housing crisis. They have also argued international education is a valuable export and it is being undermined by policy changes out of Canberra. But this has had no impact on the stance of either Labor or the Coalition.

    So, the number of international students in Australia will fall regardless of the federal election result. The decline is set to be greater under a Coalition government. But regardless of the election result, the days of unlimited international student numbers are over.

    The Conversation

    Andrew Norton works for Monash University, which is a member of the Group of Eight and would be significantly affected by the policies discussed in this article.

    ref. The Coalition has announced an even more radical plan to cut international students than Labor. Here’s how it would work – https://theconversation.com/the-coalition-has-announced-an-even-more-radical-plan-to-cut-international-students-than-labor-heres-how-it-would-work-253919

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ian Powell: When apartheid met Zionism – the case for NZ recognising Palestine as a state

    COMMENTARY: By Ian Powell

    The 1981 Springbok Tour was one of the most controversial events in Aotearoa New Zealand’s history. For 56 days, between July and September, more than 150,000 people took part in more than 200 demonstrations in 28 centres.

    It was the largest protest in the country’s history.

    It caused social ruptures within communities and families across the country. With the National government backing the tour, protests against apartheid sport turned into confrontations with both police and pro-tour rugby fans — on marches and at matches.

    The success of these mass protests was that this was the last tour in either country between the two teams with the strongest rivalry among rugby playing nations.

    This deeply rooted antipathy towards the racism of apartheid helps provide context to today’s growing opposition by New Zealanders to the horrific actions of another apartheid state.

    Depuis la révolte de 1976, le nom de ce township noir symbolise la lutte de la population noire contre le système d’apartheid. Les habitants mènent leur vie quotidienne au milieu des conflits et manifestations, le 15 juin 1980. (Photo by William Campbell/Sygma via Getty Images)

    ” data-medium-file=”https://politicalbytes.blog/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/apartheid-in-south-africa.jpg?w=300″ data-large-file=”https://politicalbytes.blog/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/apartheid-in-south-africa.jpg?w=612″/>

    A township protest against apartheid in South Africa in 1980. Image: politicalbytes.blog

    Understanding apartheid
    Apartheid is a humiliating, repressive and brutal legislated segregation through separation of social groups. In South Africa, this segregation was based on racism (white supremacy over non-whites; predominantly Black Africans but also Asians).

    For nearly three centuries before 1948, Africans had been dispossessed and exploited by Dutch and British colonists. In 1948, this oppression was upgraded to an official legal policy of apartheid.

    Apartheid does not have to be necessarily by race. It could also be religious based. An earlier example was when Christians separated Jews into ghettos on the false claim of inferiority.

    In August 2024, Le Monde Diplomatic published article (paywalled) by German prize-winning journalist and author Charlotte Wiedemann on apartheid in both Israel and South Africa under the heading “When Apartheid met Zionism”:

    She asked the pointed question of what did it mean to be Jewish in a country that saw Israel through the lens of its own experience of apartheid?

    It is a fascinating question making her article an excellent read. Le Monde Diplomatic is a quality progressive magazine, well worth the subscription to read many articles as interesting as this one.

    Relevant Wiedemann observations
    Wiedemann’s scope is wider than that of this blog but many of her observations are still pertinent to my analysis of the relationship between the two apartheid states.

    Most early Jewish immigrants to South Africa fled pogroms and poverty in tsarist Lithuania. This context encouraged many to believe that every human being deserved equal respect, regardless of skin colour or origin.

    Blatant widespread white-supremacist racism had been central to South Africa’s history of earlier Dutch and English colonialism. But this shifted to a further higher level in May 1948 when apartheid formally became central to South Africa’s legal and political system.

    Although many Jews were actively opposed to apartheid it was not until 1985, 37 years later, that Jewish community leaders condemned it outright. In the words of Chief Rabbi Cyril Harris to the post-apartheid Truth and Reconciliation Commission:

    “The Jewish community benefited from apartheid and an apology must be given … We ask forgiveness.”

    On the one hand, Jewish lawyers defended Black activists, But, on the other hand, it was a Jewish prosecutor who pursued Nelson Mandela with “extraordinary zeal” in the case that led to his long imprisonment.

    Israel became one of apartheid South Africa’s strongest allies, including militarily, even when it had become internationally isolated, including through sporting and economic boycotts. Israel’s support for the increasingly isolated apartheid state was unfailing.

    Jewish immigration to South Africa from the late 19th century brought two powerful competing ideas from Eastern Europe. One was Zionism while the other was the Bundists with a strong radical commitment to justice.

    But it was Zionism that grew stronger under apartheid. Prior to 1948 it was a nationalist movement advocating for a homeland for Jewish people in the “biblical land of Israel”.

    Zionism provided the rationale for the ideas that actively sought and achieved the existence of the Israeli state. This, and consequential forced removal of so many Palestinians from their homeland, made Zionism a “natural fit” in apartheid South Africa.

    Nelson Mandela and post-apartheid South Africa
    Although strongly pro-Palestinian, post-apartheid South Africa has never engaged in Holocaust denial. In fact, Holocaust history is compulsory in its secondary schools.

    Its first president, Nelson Mandela, was very clear about the importance of recognising the reality of the Holocaust. As Charlotte Wiedemann observes:

    “Quite the reverse . . .  In 1994 Mandela symbolically marked the end of apartheid at an exhibition about Anne Frank. ‘By honouring her memory as we do today’ he said at its opening, ‘we are saying with one voice: never and never again!’”

    In a 1997 speech, on the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People, Mandela also reaffirmed his support for Palestinian rights:

    “We know too well that our freedom is incomplete without the freedom of the Palestinians.”

    There is a useful account of Mandela’s relationship with and support for Palestinians published by Middle East Eye.

    Mandela’s identification with Palestine was recognised by Palestinians themselves. This included the construction of an impressive statue of him on what remains of their West Bank homeland.

    Palestinians stand next to a giant statue of Nelson Mandela following its inauguration ceremony in the West Bank city of Ramallah on April 26, 2016. – Palestinians inaugurated the statue of Mandela donated by the South African city of Johannesburg to their political capital. The six-metre (20-foot) two-tonne bronze statue was a gift from Johannesburg with which Ramallah is twinned. (Photo by ABBAS MOMANI / AFP)

    ” data-medium-file=”https://politicalbytes.blog/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/mandela-statue-in-west-bank-city-of-ramallah.jpg?w=300″ data-large-file=”https://politicalbytes.blog/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/mandela-statue-in-west-bank-city-of-ramallah.jpg?w=750″/>

    Palestinians stand next to a 6 metre high statue of Nelson Mandela following its inauguration ceremony in the West Bank city of Ramallah in 2016. It was donated by the South African city of Johannesburg, which is twinned with Ramallah. Image: politicalbytes.blog

    Comparing apartheid in South Africa and Israel
    So how did apartheid in South Africa compare with apartheid in Israel. To begin with, while both coincidentally began in May 1948, in South Africa this horrendous system ended over 30 years ago. But in Israel it not only continues, it intensifies.

    Broadly speaking, this included Israel adapting the infamously cruel “Bantustan system” of South Africa which was designed to maintain white supremacy and strengthen the government’s apartheid policy. It involved an area set aside for Black Africans, purportedly for notional self-government.

    In South Africa, apartheid lasted until the early 1990s culminating in South Africa’s first democratic election in 1994.

    Tragically, for Palestinians in their homeland, apartheid not only continues but is intensified by ethnic cleansing delivered by genocide, both incrementally and in surges.

    Apartheid Plus: ethnic cleansing and genocide
    Israel has gone further than its former southern racist counterpart. Whereas South Africa’s economy depended on the labour exploitation of its much larger African workforce, this was relatively much less so for Israel.

    As much as possible Israel’s focus was, and still is, instead on the forcible removal of Palestinians from their homeland.

    This began in 1948 with what is known by Palestinians as the Nakba (“the catastrophe”) when many were physically displaced by the creation of the Israeli state. Genocide is the increasing means of delivering ethnic cleansing.

    Ethnic cleansing is an attempt to create ethnically homogeneous geographic areas by deporting or forcibly displacing people belonging to particular ethnic groups.

    It can also include the removal of all physical vestiges of the victims of this cleansing through the destruction of monuments, cemeteries, and houses of worship.

    This destructive removal has been the unfortunate Palestinian experience in much of today’s Israel and its occupied or controlled territories. It is continuing in Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

    Genocide involves actions intended to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial, or religious group.

    In contrast with civil war, genocide usually involves deaths on a much larger scale with civilians invariably and deliberately the targets. Genocide is an international crime, according to the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (1948).

    Today the Israeli slaughter and destruction in Gaza is a huge genocidal surge with the objective of being the “final solution” while incremental genocide of Palestinians speeds up in the occupied West Bank.

    Notwithstanding the benefits of the recent ceasefire, it freed up Israel to militarily focus on repressing West Bank Palestinians.

    Meanwhile, Israel’s genocide in Gaza during the current vulnerable hiatus of the ceasefire has shifted from military action to starvation.

    The final word
    One of the encouraging features has been the massive protests against the genocide throughout the world. In a relative context, and while not on the same scale as the mass protests against the racist South African rugby tour in 1981, this includes New Zealand.

    Many Jews, including in New Zealand and in the international protests such as at American universities, have been among the strongest critics of the ethnic cleansing through genocide of the apartheid Israeli state.

    They have much in common with the above-mentioned Bundist focus on social justice in contrast to the dogmatic biblical extremism of Zionism.

    Amos Goldberg, professor of genocidal studies at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem is one such Jew. Let’s leave the final word to him:

    “It’s so difficult and painful to admit it, but we can no longer avoid this conclusion. Jewish history will henceforth be stained.”

    This is a compelling case for the New Zealand government to join the many other countries in formally recognising the state of Palestine.

    Ian Powell is a progressive health, labour market and political “no-frills” forensic commentator in New Zealand. A former senior doctors union leader for more than 30 years, he blogs at Second Opinion and Political Bytes, where this article was first published. Republished with the author’s permission.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI USA: SPC Tornado Watch 130

    Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
    SEL0

    URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Tornado Watch Number 130
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    135 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

    * Tornado Watch for portions of
    Far Western North Carolina
    Southeastern Tennessee

    * Effective this Sunday morning from 135 AM until 700 AM EDT.

    * Primary threats include…
    A couple tornadoes possible
    Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

    SUMMARY…Convective line currently moving through middle TN is
    expected to continue eastward into southeastern TN and eventually
    far western NC over the next several hours. Low-level shear across
    the region is expected to remain strong enough to support occasional
    bowing within this line, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts
    and a few tornadoes.

    The tornado watch area is approximately along and 25 statute miles
    north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of
    Chattanooga TN to 30 miles southeast of Knoxville TN. For a complete
    depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
    (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
    tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
    area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
    threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
    and possible warnings.

    &&

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 128…WW 129…

    AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
    surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
    gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
    storm motion vector 24035.

    …Mosier

    SEL0

    URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Tornado Watch Number 130
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    135 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

    * Tornado Watch for portions of
    Far Western North Carolina
    Southeastern Tennessee

    * Effective this Sunday morning from 135 AM until 700 AM EDT.

    * Primary threats include…
    A couple tornadoes possible
    Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

    SUMMARY…Convective line currently moving through middle TN is
    expected to continue eastward into southeastern TN and eventually
    far western NC over the next several hours. Low-level shear across
    the region is expected to remain strong enough to support occasional
    bowing within this line, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts
    and a few tornadoes.

    The tornado watch area is approximately along and 25 statute miles
    north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of
    Chattanooga TN to 30 miles southeast of Knoxville TN. For a complete
    depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
    (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
    tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
    area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
    threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
    and possible warnings.

    &&

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 128…WW 129…

    AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
    surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
    gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
    storm motion vector 24035.

    …Mosier

    Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
    SAW0
    WW 130 TORNADO NC TN 060535Z – 061100Z
    AXIS..25 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
    35WNW CHA/CHATTANOOGA TN/ – 30SE TYS/KNOXVILLE TN/
    ..AVIATION COORDS.. 20NM N/S /34WNW GQO – 27SSE VXV/
    HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
    MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

    LAT…LON 35588577 35878362 35158362 34868577

    THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
    FOR WOU0.

    Watch 130 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

    Note:  Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes

    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

    Mod (30%)

    Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

    Low (10%)

    Wind

    Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

    Low (20%)

    Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

    Low (10%)

    Hail

    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

    Low (10%)

    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

    Low (10%)

    Combined Severe Hail/Wind

    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

    Mod (40%)

    For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-Evening Report: Fiji solidarity group condemns Rabuka plans for embassy in Jerusalem

    Asia Pacific Report

    A Fiji-based Pacific solidarity group supporting the indigenous Palestine struggle for survival against the Israeli settler colonial state has today issued a statement condemning Fiji backing for Israel.

    In an open letter to the “people of Fiji”, the Fijians for Palestine Solidarity Network (F4P) has warned “your government openly supports Israel despite its genocidal campaign against Palestinians”.

    “It is directly complicit in Israel’s genocide against Palestinians and history will not forgive their inaction.”

    The group said the struggle resonated with all who believed in justice, equality, and the fundamental rights of every human being.

    Fijians for Palestine has condemned Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka’s coalition government plans to open a Fijian embassy in Jerusalem with Israeli backing and has launched a “No embassy on occupied land” campaign.

    The group likened the Palestine liberation struggle to Pacific self-determination campaigns in Bougainville, “French” Polynesia, Kanaky and West Papua.

    Global voices for end to violence
    The open letter on social media said:

    “Our solidarity with the Palestinian people is a testament to our shared humanity. We believe in a world where diversity, is treated with dignity and respect.

    “We dream of a future where children in Gaza can play without fear, where families can live without the shadow of war, and where the Palestinian people can finally enjoy the peace and freedom they so rightly deserve.

    “We join the global voices demanding a permanent ceasefire and an end to the violence. We express our unwavering solidarity with the Palestinian people.

    “The Palestinian struggle is not just a regional issue; it is a testament to the resilience of a people who, despite facing impossible odds, continue to fight for their right to exist, freedom, and dignity. Their struggle resonates with all who believe in justice, equality, and the fundamental rights of every human being.

    “The images of destruction, the stories of families torn apart, and the cries of children caught in the crossfire are heart-wrenching. These are not mere statistics or distant news stories; these are real people with hopes, dreams, and aspirations, much like us.

    “As Fijians, we have always prided ourselves on our commitment to peace, unity, and humanity. Our rich cultural heritage and shared values teach us the importance of standing up for what is right, even when it is not popular or convenient.

    “We call on you to stand in solidarity with the Palestinian people this Thursday with us, not out of political allegiance but out of a shared belief in humanity, justice, and the inalienable human rights of every individual.

    “There can be no peace without justice, and we stand in unity with all people and territories struggling for self-determination and freedom from occupation. The Pacific cannot be an Ocean of Peace without freedom and self determination in Palestine, West Papua, Kanaky and all oppressed territories.

    “To the Fijian people, please know that your government openly supports Israel despite its genocidal campaign against Palestinians. It is directly complicit in Israel’s genocide against Palestinians and history will not forgive their inaction.”

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI USA: SPC Tornado Watch 129

    Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
    SEL9

    URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Tornado Watch Number 129
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1025 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

    * Tornado Watch for portions of
    Central Louisiana
    Southern and Central Mississippi

    * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1025 PM
    until 500 AM CDT.

    * Primary threats include…
    A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
    Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 80 mph possible
    Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

    SUMMARY…An intensifying line of thunderstorms over western
    Mississippi will track eastward overnight across the watch area.
    Damaging winds will be the main concern, but a few of the storms
    along the line may also pose a risk of tornadoes.

    The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
    east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Tupelo MS to
    35 miles southwest of Mc Comb MS. For a complete depiction of the
    watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
    tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
    area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
    threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
    and possible warnings.

    &&

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 125…WW 127…WW 128…

    AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
    surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
    gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
    storm motion vector 24035.

    …Hart

    SEL9

    URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Tornado Watch Number 129
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1025 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

    * Tornado Watch for portions of
    Central Louisiana
    Southern and Central Mississippi

    * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1025 PM
    until 500 AM CDT.

    * Primary threats include…
    A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
    Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 80 mph possible
    Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

    SUMMARY…An intensifying line of thunderstorms over western
    Mississippi will track eastward overnight across the watch area.
    Damaging winds will be the main concern, but a few of the storms
    along the line may also pose a risk of tornadoes.

    The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
    east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Tupelo MS to
    35 miles southwest of Mc Comb MS. For a complete depiction of the
    watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
    tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
    area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
    threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
    and possible warnings.

    &&

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 125…WW 127…WW 128…

    AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
    surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
    gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
    storm motion vector 24035.

    …Hart

    Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
    SAW9
    WW 129 TORNADO LA MS 060325Z – 061000Z
    AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
    20ENE TUP/TUPELO MS/ – 35SW MCB/MC COMB MS/
    ..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /51WSW MSL – 30NE BTR/
    HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
    MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

    LAT…LON 34388757 30829004 30829173 34388932

    THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
    FOR WOU9.

    Watch 129 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

    Note:  Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes

    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

    Mod (60%)

    Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

    Mod (40%)

    Wind

    Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

    High (70%)

    Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

    Mod (30%)

    Hail

    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

    Mod (40%)

    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

    Low (20%)

    Combined Severe Hail/Wind

    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

    High (90%)

    For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI USA: Rep. Neguse, Senator Bennet Renew Calls for Tim’s Act, Bipartisan Bill to Improve Working Conditions for Federal Firefighters

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Joe Neguse (D-Co 2)

    Washington, D.C. — As the wildland firefighting workforce continues to face increasing uncertainty as a result of the Trump Administration’s reckless attacks on federal employees, Congressman Joe Neguse, Co-Chair of the Bipartisan Wildfire Caucus, and U.S. Senator Michael Bennet are re-upping calls to overhaul federal wildland firefighter compensation and benefits. Their bill Tim’s Act—named in honor of Tim Hart, a brave smokejumper from Cody, Wyoming who tragically lost his life on May 24, 2021, while battling the Eicks Fire in New Mexico—bolsters recruitment, retention, and well-being within this vital workforce. 

    “Federal wildland firefighters are our nation’s unsung heroes. This workforce is underpaid and undervalued, despite putting their lives on the line to protect our homes, families, and communities. Unconscionable. We’re calling on Democrats and Republicans alike to take decisive action to implement much-needed reforms in how we recognize their sacrifices, and join us in championing Tim’s Act,” said Congressman Neguse. “Congress has now finally enacted a permanent pay fix, but the work continues as we now turn to other critical issues—addressing recruitment and retention, housing, mental health benefits, rest, recuperation, and the overall well-being of our nation’s wildland firefighting workforce.” 

    “As climate change fuels increasingly frequent and destructive wildfires across the West, we rely more and more on wildland firefighters to protect our homes and communities,” said Senator Bennet. “These brave firefighters deserve support for their mental and physical health and more time to recover. This legislation ensures they receive the benefits they deserve for their life-saving work.”

    Neguse has worked tirelessly to spearhead bipartisan, bicameral efforts to permanently increase pay for federal wildland firefighters, first implemented by the Biden-Harris Administration in 2021, including, most recently, championing the reintroduction of the Wildland Firefighter Paycheck Protection Act. After Congressional Republicans delayed action for over a year—tying this common-sense pay reform to government funding negotiations—the measure has finally been codified into law. However, federal wildland firefighters working for agencies like the Forest Service (USFS) and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) now are still at risk of mass layoffs and reduction in force measures initiated under the Trump administration.

    Neguse and Bennet are working to build on recent bipartisan actions to increase federal wildland firefighter pay to help address the other challenges facing this workforce through Tim’s Act, including improving hazardous duty  pay, supporting enhanced pay management oversight and retirement benefits, and boosting firefighter physical and mental well-being by ensuring firefighters receive paid rest and recuperation leave.

    Federal wildland firefighters are severely overworked and underpaid, often tasked with laborious and grueling conditions to protect communities across the country. Tim’s Act takes a holistic approach to recognizing the immense sacrifices made by this workforce.

    Background

    Since taking office, House Assistant Minority Leader Joe Neguse (CO-02) has worked tirelessly to bring federal resources home to communities recovering from disaster and to advocate for increased support for wildland firefighters, wildfire prevention, and forest management. 

    In 2021, Neguse successfully enacted elements of Tim’s Act through the implementation of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which created a new classification series specifically for wildland firefighters, temporarily increased pay, and established new support systems for firefighters through mental health services. In the 118th Congress, he also spearheaded bipartisan, bicameral efforts to address this issue head-on and permanently increase pay, championing both Tim’s Act and the Wildland Firefighter Paycheck Protection Act. These pay provisions were codified by Congress’s most recent continuing resolution bill, paving the way for additional steps to ensure this workforce receives the compensation and benefits they deserve

    ###

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI China: Over 1,000 battle wildfire in north China’s Shanxi

    Source: China State Council Information Office 2

    More than 1,000 people have been mobilized to battle a wildfire in Pingyao County, north China’s Shanxi Province, as of 6 p.m. Saturday, local authorities said.
    The blaze was first reported around noon on Friday at the border between Qinyuan County and Pingyao County. Firefighting operations remain ongoing and the total area affected by the fire is still being assessed.
    Eight firefighting aircraft have been deployed and are continuously working to extinguish the blaze. Eleven fire trucks and 65 firefighters have been dispatched to ensure water supply to the fire zone and to protect nearby villages.
    According to rescuers at the scene, strong winds have made the operation particularly challenging. 

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: China states its position on opposing US abuse of tariffs

    Source: China State Council Information Office 2

    The Chinese government’s position on opposing U.S. abuse of tariffs was released on Saturday.
    Recently, under various pretexts, the United States has imposed tariffs on all trading partners, including China, which severely infringes upon the legitimate rights and interests of nations, severely violates World Trade Organization rules, severely harms the rules-based multilateral trading system, and severely disrupts the stability of the global economic order. The Chinese government strongly condemns and firmly opposes this.
    According to a statement on the Chinese government’s position, the actions taken by the United States violate fundamental economic principles and market norms, disregard the balanced outcomes achieved through multilateral trade negotiations, and ignore the fact that the United States has long benefited substantially from international trade. Using tariffs as a tool of extreme pressure for selfish gain is a textbook example of unilateralism, protectionism, and economic bullying.
    Under the guise of pursuing “reciprocity” and “fairness,” the United States is engaging in zero-sum games and, in essence, seeking “America First” and “American exceptionalism,” the statement said.
    It said that the United States is exploiting tariffs to subvert the existing international economic and trade order, prioritizing U.S. interests above the global common good and sacrificing the legitimate interests of countries worldwide to serve its own hegemonic agenda.
    “Such actions will inevitably face widespread opposition from the international community,” it noted.
    China is an ancient civilization and a land of ritual. The Chinese people advocate treating others with sincerity and trust.
    “We don’t make trouble, but we have no fear of trouble,” the statement said, stressing that pressure and threats are not the right way to deal with China. China has taken and will continue to take resolute measures to safeguard its sovereignty, security and development interests.
    Noting that China-U.S. economic and trade relations should be mutually beneficial in nature, the statement said the United States should conform to the common expectations of the people in the two countries and around the world. In line with the need to safeguard the fundamental interests of the two countries, the United States should stop using tariffs as a weapon to suppress China’s trade and economy, and stop undermining the legitimate development rights of the Chinese people.
    As the world’s second-largest economy and second-largest consumer market for goods, China will open its doors wider to the outside world no matter how the international situation changes, the statement stressed.
    It said China will continue to open up to the world at a high level, steadily expand its institutional opening-up in rules, regulations, management and standards, implement high-level trade and investment liberalization and facilitation policies, and foster a market-oriented, law-based and internationalized first-class business environment, to share its development opportunities with the world, and achieve mutual benefits and win-win results.
    Economic globalization is the only way forward for the development of human society. The rules-based multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization (WTO) at its core has made important contributions to promoting global trade, economic growth and sustainable development, the statement noted.
    “As openness and cooperation is the trend of history, the world will not and should not retreat to mutual isolation and division,” the statement said. Mutual benefits and win-win outcomes reflect the common aspirations of all people, while beggar-thy-neighbor economic bullying will ultimately backfire.
    “It is the shared responsibility of the international community to make economic globalization more open, inclusive, universally beneficial and balanced,” it said.
    Development is a universal right for all countries, not the exclusive privilege of a few. International affairs should be discussed and handled collectively, and the future and destiny of the world should be in the hands of all nations, the statement said.
    There are no winners in trade wars or tariff wars, and protectionism leads to a dead end, it stressed. And all countries should uphold the principles of extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits, uphold genuine multilateralism, work together to oppose all forms of unilateralism and protectionism, and uphold the international system with the United Nations at its core and the multilateral trading system with the WTO at its core.
    The statement highlighted the belief that the vast majority of countries that value fairness and justice will stand on the right side of history, making decisions that serve their own interests. The world must embrace equity, not hegemony. 

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: At least 1 dead, 4 wounded in US airstrikes on Yemen’s Saada

    Source: China State Council Information Office

    At least one person was killed and four others wounded when airstrikes by U.S. forces hit a solar energy store and a house in Yemen’s northern city of Saada late on Saturday, medics reported.

    Medics described the casualty toll as preliminary, adding that civil defense teams were working to extinguish fires and search for victims at the targeted sites in the Hafsin area of western Saada city, the capital of the namesake Saada province.

    Earlier on Saturday, the Houthi group denied U.S. claims that an American airstrike had targeted a meeting of its military leaders in the Red Sea port city of Hodeidah.

    A Houthi statement, reported by the group’s al-Masirah TV, described the event cited in the U.S. claims as a social gathering for the Eid holiday, calling such events a common practice in Yemen during holidays.

    On March 15, the U.S. military launched a new round of airstrikes across Yemen, aimed at weakening the Houthis’ operational capacity. Over the past two weeks, U.S. forces have carried out a wave of strikes targeting Houthi air defense systems, command centers, fortified positions, and weapons depots across several provinces.

    The Houthis have previously said they would resume attacks on commercial and naval vessels linked to Israel in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, citing Israel’s blockade of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.

    The group says its maritime operations are intended to express solidarity with Palestinians and to apply pressure on Israel over its military campaign in Gaza.

    MIL OSI China News