Category: Pandemic

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Release: Child poverty reduction must remain a priority

    Source: New Zealand Labour Party

    The latest child poverty statistics show child poverty reduction must remain a priority for the Government. 

    “Children should not be living in poverty, and the latest statistics are hugely concerning,” Labour child poverty reduction spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni said.

    “There are huge challenges that families are facing right now, with high cost of living, high unemployment and housing – and significant work is needed to lift more children out of poverty.

    “Labour is staunchly committed to child poverty reduction, and I am proud that it remained a priority for us throughout our time in government, even with the immense challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. But there is still so much more work to do.

    “The Government must put our tamariki first. Now is not the time to be bending over backwards for landlords and tobacco companies, instead we must focus on alleviating the struggle for families and their children who need our support most.

    “Denying funding to food banks, stopping families from accessing emergency housing, and building no new public homes will only exacerbate these statistics. Stagnating benefits by tying increases to inflation instead of wage growth will mean less money for many families over time. Going against official advice on minimum wage increases means many of our poorest workers are going backwards.

    “These statistics come after a recent report showing half of Pacific children sometimes go without food, and homelessness is increasing.

    “I urge the Government to take these statistics seriously. Diminishing the child poverty targets to make it easier to achieve is a worrying sign they’re not.

    “We made changes that lifted tens of thousands of children out of poverty while in government. Child poverty reduction must remain a priority for this Government too,” said Carmel Sepuloni.


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    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Guterres urges Caribbean leaders to keep pushing for peace, climate action and sustainable development

    Source: United Nations 2

    Peace and Security

    In an address on Wednesday to Caribbean leaders meeting in Barbados, UN Secretary-General António Guterres announced a potential plan to support an “effective force” in Haiti as armed gangs continue to terrorize the population. 

    Mr. Guterres was speaking during the opening of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Heads of Government Meeting in the capital Bridgetown, where he called for unity to achieve progress in peace and security, climate and sustainable development.

    “A unified Caribbean is an unstoppable force,” he said. “I urge you to keep using that power to push the world to deliver on its promises.”

    ‘Trouble in paradise’

    The Secretary-General noted that the region’s “exquisite beauty is famed the world over, but there is trouble in paradise.”

    He told leaders that “wave after wave of crisis is pounding your people and your islands – with no time to catch your breath before the next disaster strikes.”

    Caribbean countries are experiencing uncertainty fuelled by geopolitical tensions, the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, soaring debt and interest rates, and a surge in the cost of living. 

    Global solutions exist

    These are all happening “amidst a deadly swell of climate disasters – ripping development gains to shreds, and blowing holes through your national budgets,” and as countries “remain locked-out of many international institutions – one of the many legacies of colonialism today.”

    The UN chief insisted that “the cure for these ills is global,” and the world needs to deliver on hard-won global commitments to address the immense challenges the international community is facing.

    He listed three key areas “where, together, we must drive progress.” 

    Peace in Haiti

    Mr. Guterres called for unity for peace and security, “particularly to address the appalling situation in Haiti – where gangs are inflicting intolerable suffering on a desperate and frightened people.”

    He said CARICOM and its Eminent Persons Group have provided invaluable support in this regard. 

    “We must keep working for a political process – owned and led by the Haitians – that restores democratic institutions through elections,” he said.

    Security and stability

    A UN-backed Multinational Security Support Mission is currently on the ground to back up the Haitian National Police.

    The Secretary-General said he will soon report to the Security Council on the situation in the country, including proposals on the role the UN can play to both support stability and security, and address the root causes of the crisis.

    He intends to present a proposal similar to the one for Somalia, in which the UN assumes responsibility for the structural and logistical expenditures necessary to put the force in place. Salaries are paid through a trust fund that already exists.

    “If the Security Council will accept this proposal, we will have the conditions to finally have an effective force to defeat the gangs in Haiti and create the conditions for democracy to thrive,” he said, drawing applause.

    © WFP/Fedel Mansour

    Hurricane Beryl last July caused devastation on Union Island in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

    Climate crisis opportunity

    His second point – unity on the climate crisis – underlined “a deplorable injustice” as Caribbean countries “have done next to nothing” to create it. Moreover, they have “fought tooth and nail for the global commitment to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees.”

    Mr. Guterres said countries must deliver new national climate plans ahead of the COP30 UN climate conference later this year.  The plans must align with the 1.5 goal, with the G20 group of industrial nations leading the way.

    “This is a chance for the world to get a grip on emissions,” he said. “And it’s a chance for the Caribbean to seize the benefits of clean power, to tap your vast renewables potential, and to turn your back on costly fossil fuel imports.”

    As finance is required, he underscored the need for confidence that the $1.3 trillion agreed at the previous COP will be mobilized. Developed countries also must honour their promises on adaptation finance and make meaningful contributions to the new Loss and Damage Fund.

    “When the Fund was created, the pledges made were equivalent to the new contract for just one baseball player in New York City,” he remarked.

    Finance for sustainable development

    Meanwhile, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) “are starved of adequate finance, as debt servicing soaks-up funds, and international financial institutions remain underpowered.”

    The Secretary-General said Caribbean countries have been at the forefront of the fight for change, pioneering bold and creative solutions.  He said the Pact for the Future, together with the Bridgetown Initiative, marks significant progress.

    Mr. Guterres thanked Caribbean leaders for supporting the Pact, which UN Member States adopted last year. 

    Key deliverables include support for an SDG Stimulus of $500 billion annually and commitment to reform international financial institutions to allow greater participation by developing countries. 

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI Security: New Orleans Man Sentenced for Making False Statements to United States Small Business Administration

    Source: Office of United States Attorneys

    NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANARENIC PALMER, JR. (“PALMER”), age 25, of New Orleans, Louisiana, was sentenced on February 13, 2025, before United States District Judge Carl J. Barbier.  PALMER previously pled guilty to making or using false writings or documents to the United States Small Business Administration (SBA), in violation of Title 18, United States Code, Section 1001(a)(3), announced Acting U.S. Attorney Michael M. Simpson.

    According to court documents, PALMER submitted false writings and documents to the SBA, to obtain a Payroll Protection Program (“PPP”) Loan.  In his application, among other things, PALMER falsely represented that he was the owner of a merchant wholesale hair supply company formed in 2017, and that he was eligible for PPP funds.  As a result of these false representations, PALMER obtained $20,832.00 from the SBA.

    Judge Barbier sentenced PALMER to three years of probation, restitution of $20,832 to the SBA, and a $100 mandatory special assessment fee.

    Anyone with information about allegations of attempted fraud involving COVID-19 can report it by calling the Department of Justice’s National Center for Disaster Fraud (NCDF) Hotline at 866-720-5721 or via the NCDF Web Complaint Form at: https://www.justice.gov/disaster-fraud/ncdf-disaster-complaint-form.

    For more information on the Department’s response to the pandemic, please visit https://www.justice.gov/coronavirus.

    Acting U.S. Attorney Simpson commended the Special Agents of the Coast Guard Investigative Service for their work on this case.  Assistant United States Attorney Andre J. Lagarde of the Public Integrity Unit is in charge of the prosecution.

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI Global: CDC layoffs strike deeply at its ability to respond to the current flu, norovirus and measles outbreaks and other public health emergencies

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jordan Miller, Teaching Professor of Public Health, Arizona State University

    The CDC played an instrumental, if imperfect, role in the response to COVID-19. JHDT Stock Images LLC/iStock via Getty Images

    In just a few short weeks, the Trump administration has brought drastic changes to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and public health. Beginning with the removal of websites and key public health datasets in January 2025, the Trump administration has taken actions to dismantle established public health infrastructure as part of its second-term agenda.

    In addition, the administration has begun a widespread purge of the federal public health workforce. As of Feb. 19, around 5,200 employees at the CDC and the National Institutes of Health had been let go. About 10% of the CDC’s staff have been removed, with plans for additional firings.

    As a teaching professor and public health educator, I, like thousands of other health professionals, rely on CDC data and educational resources throughout my work. CDC websites are the first stop for health information for my students and for health care practitioners, and are vital to protecting the U.S. from infectious diseases, like avian flu and COVID-19, as well as noninfectious health conditions, such as diabetes and heart disease.

    Here’s a quick look at what the CDC does to protect Americans’ health, and how it’s likely to be affected by the Trump administration’s actions:

    Gutting the CDC’s capacity

    Prior to the February cuts, the CDC employed over 10,000 full-time staff in roles spanning public health, epidemiology, medicine, communications, engineering and beyond to maintain this critical public health infrastructure.

    In addition to the centers’ wide variety of functions to protect and promote public health in the U.S., a vast amount of research in the U.S. relies on CDC data. The CDC obtains data from all 50 states, territories and the District of Columbia, which is collated into widely utilized databases such as the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, National Health Interview Survey and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System.

    Several of these datasets and CDC websites were removed at the start of the second Trump term, and while they are currently back online due to a federal court order, it remains to be seen if these important sources of information will remain accessible and updated going forward.

    The CDC also publishes the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, which allows for ongoing and timely surveillance of key health conditions. The reports cover a wide range of topics, including wildfires, motor vehicle accidents, autism, asthma, opioids, mental health and many others. The CDC plays a central role in monitoring and reporting the spread of flu in winter months through its FluView, which informs clinical practice as well as public health interventions.

    Physicians are reporting that their ability to respond to the surges in respiratory viruses they are seeing has been hobbled by the missing data and by prohibitions on CDC staff communicating outside the agency.

    The CDC’s famed “disease detectives,” part of the Epidemic Intelligence Service, appear to have been spared following public outcry after more than half of its members were initially told they would be let go as part of the Feb. 14 mass layoffs.

    It remains to be seen if this group will remain intact long term. Concerns are growing that shakeups to the nation’s infectious disease surveillance teams will hamper the government’s ability to respond effectively at a time when avian flu and measles are growing concerns in the U.S.

    The CDC’s headquarters are in Atlanta.
    Nathan Posner/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

    History of the CDC

    The CDC began as a small branch of the U.S. Public Health Service in 1946 as an outgrowth of successes fighting malaria in southern states during World War II and before. Its founder, Dr. Joseph W. Mountin, envisioned that it would come to serve all states, addressing all communicable diseases. Since that time, the CDC has evolved into the nation’s premier public health organization, leveraging both clinical and population health sciences to prevent and mitigate challenges to the nation’s health.

    In its first 40 years, the CDC helped eradicate smallpox and identify the causes of Legionnaires’ disease, toxic shock syndrome and HIV.

    As the country’s primary health challenges have shifted from communicable diseases to noncommunicable ones over recent decades, the organization has adapted, expanding its reach and priorities to meet changing public health needs. The CDC also has the ability to flex and scale up efforts rapidly when needed to respond to novel outbreaks, which is essential for containing infectious diseases and preventing escalation.

    CDC’s global reach

    Recognizing that health does not exist in a vacuum, the CDC also operates internationally to mitigate health challenges that could threaten health in the U.S. over time. The agency is active in addressing diseases that are endemic in certain areas, such as tuberculosis and HIV. It also responds to outbreaks from emerging threats, like Ebola and Marburg virus disease.

    The CDC played a crucial role in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, coordinating with the World Health Organization, domestic health agencies and others to plan and execute a robust response.

    In 2024, the CDC worked with the WHO to respond to a Marburg virus outbreak in Rwanda that lasted for several months. On average, about half of people infected with Marburg virus do not survive, so early detection and effective response are essential to prevent loss of life and contain outbreaks before they spread widely.

    On Jan. 20, 2025, the White House announced President Donald Trump’s plans to withdraw from the WHO. This move further weakens the country’s ability to manage and mitigate threats to Americans’ health and national security.

    Not only does the WHO do essential work to protect children around the world from needless death due to starvation, but it monitors and responds to infectious diseases. The U.S. has been the largest contributor to the WHO, with approximately 12%-15% of its operating costs coming from the U.S. That means that removal of U.S. support will also affect the WHO’s capacity to respond to international public health issues.

    As the COVID-19 pandemic made plain, a delayed response to infectious disease outbreaks can exponentially increase long-term costs and consequences. It remains to be seen what impact the established relationships between the CDC and the WHO will have on their ability to coordinate effectively during times of crisis.

    The CDC’s work around the world helps to stop outbreaks before they spread – and reach the U.S.

    Future health care workforce threatened

    The reach, flexibility, adaptability and robust foundation of relationships developed over the past eight decades enable the CDC to respond to threats quickly, wherever in the world they arise. This is important for protecting health, and it plays a vital role in global and national security as well.

    In addition to its direct actions to promote public health, the CDC provides workforce development and training to help create an enduring public health infrastructure in the U.S. and abroad. This is more important than ever, as systemic factors have placed pressure on health professionals. The domestic public health workforce has shrunk drastically, losing 40,000 workers since the start of the Great Recession in 2009 due to economic constraints and social pressures during the pandemic. The CDC’s workforce development efforts help counteract these trends.

    Public health workers were reporting high rates of burnout and stress even before the COVID-19 pandemic, which the pandemic worsened. Cuts to the federal workforce, as well as funding for public health programs, will no doubt add to these strains.

    Jordan Miller received funding from CDC in the past.

    ref. CDC layoffs strike deeply at its ability to respond to the current flu, norovirus and measles outbreaks and other public health emergencies – https://theconversation.com/cdc-layoffs-strike-deeply-at-its-ability-to-respond-to-the-current-flu-norovirus-and-measles-outbreaks-and-other-public-health-emergencies-248486

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI USA: Murray Blasts Trump and Musk Decimating HHS, Risking Americans’ Health and Livelihoods

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Washington State Patty Murray

    ICYMI: Murray releases fact sheet detailing how mass layoffs jeopardize essential services Americans rely on

    Washington, D.C. – Today, U.S. Senator Patty Murray (D-WA), Vice Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee and a senior member and former chair of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP), responded to the Trump administration’s mass firings of dedicated workers across the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and its many subagencies. Thousands of HHS employees on their “probationary” period–i.e. those hired or promoted within the last 1-2 years–have already been fired, and more are expected to be in the coming days and weeks.

    ADMINISTRATION FOR CHILDREN AND FAMILIES (ACF)

    ACF is responsible for administering a variety of programs to help children and families thrive–including the primary federal child care grant program, Head Start, and Low Income Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), among many others. 

    Over the weekend, dozens of ACF staff were reportedly fired–including roughly 20% of the staff at both the Office of Head Start and Office of Child Care, which process grants supporting communities across the country, conduct oversight of those grants, and provide technical assistance to grantees.

    “It is outrageous that at the same time the child care crisis is holding back parents and hurting our entire economy, Trump is indiscriminately firing the workers who help child care and Head Start centers keep their doors open and ensure kids in their care are safe. You know what doesn’t help parents find and afford child care? Firing the people who help make sure there are more quality, affordable options in every part of the country,” said Senator Murray. “Trump and Elon are making child care more expensive and hard to get for working parents while they focus on passing massive tax cuts for themselves and other billionaires.”

    ADMINISTRATION FOR STRATEGIC PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE (ASPR)

    ASPR leads our country’s medical and public health preparedness for, response to, and recovery from disasters and public health emergencies–coordinating planning and response for when fires erupt, pathogens like COVID or bird flu emerge, and so much more.

    After claiming that employees working in emergency preparedness would be exempt from mass firings,  Trump and Musk began firing employees at ASPR this weekend.

    “We know all too well just how serious pandemic threats can get and what happens when we are not ready. It is painfully clear we need to be more prepared for public health threats, but Trump is undermining this agency and leaving us less prepared—even as the bird flu presents significant risks to our country. Firing ASPR staff puts our economy and our families in serious danger,” said Senator Murray.

    CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION (CDC)

    CDC is charged with protecting the American people from health threats.

    Nonetheless, Trump and Musk have already fired hundreds of CDC employees, including staff responsible for monitoring public health threats and for addressing lab safety failures.

    “CDC is the backbone of our public health system–and on the frontlines of outbreaks and health threats across the nation. Trump’s decision to fire hardworking public health experts will make our communities less safe and less prepared to respond quickly and effectively when diseases put lives in danger. We are seeing right now how threats like measles, tuberculosis, and bird flu can spread without strong, trusted public health agencies—and Trump is all but ensuring these challenges will get more dangerous and more deadly,” said Senator Murray.

    CENTERS FOR MEDICARE AND MEDICAID SERVICES (CMS)

    CMS helps ensure over 100 million Americans have access to health insurance by overseeing Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and Affordable Care Act marketplaces. 

    The agency has long been understaffed and under resourced–and Trump and Musk have already begun indiscriminate firings at CMS. This includes staff responsible for inspecting nursing homes to ensure that families can have peace of mind that their loved ones are appropriately cared for–and at least 80 employees reportedly cut from the agency’s Center for Consumer Information and Insurance Oversight, which oversees the Affordable Care Act and protects Americans from surprise medical bills. Staff have also been fired from the CMS Innovation Center working on improving maternal health outcomes and more. 

    “Firing the people who help Americans get quality, affordable health care and who help ensure long-term care facilities are safe is as stupid as it is heartless. These firings aren’t some abstraction–they’ll hurt people who need help getting their kid covered or who should be able to trust the nursing home their mom lives in is safe,” said Senator Murray.

    FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION (FDA)

    The FDA is charged with protecting Americans’ health by ensuring the safety and effectiveness of medicines, biologics, and medical devices–and regulating food, cosmetics, tobacco products, and more. 

    Hundreds of layoffs have been reported at the FDA, which will jeopardize the agency’s ability to fulfill its critical mission. These include layoffs of staff responsible for reviewing medical device products, which could delay new products hitting the market.

    “From inspecting food to ensuring drugs are safe and effective to preventing food shortages and so much more, Americans depend on the FDA’s work every time they sit down for a meal or pick up a prescription. Sweeping layoffs will materially undermine this important work, leaving babies at higher risk of consuming contaminated formula, leaving patients waiting longer for lifesaving drugs to be reviewed and approved, and leaving our entire food supply more exposed to shortages, contaminants, or worse,” said Senator Murray.

    HEALTH RESOURCES AND SERVICES ADMINISTRATION (HRSA)

    HRSA is charged with improving access to care for vulnerable and underserved populations. The agency runs critical programs to bolster the nation’s health workforce, improve maternal and child health, support high-quality care in Community Health Centers and Ryan White HIV/AIDS clinics, address rural health needs, and more.

    Trump’s layoffs severely impact HRSA’s ability to deliver on these critical health care programs for communities nationwide. The layoffs reportedly include significant cuts to the staff hired specifically to support the modernization of the nation’s organ transplant system. Congress has worked in a bipartisan manner to strengthen this initiative by providing additional funding to address longstanding system issues and ultimately ensure that more organs are available for transplant. These layoffs will set back this lifesaving work for the 100,000 Americans waiting on an organ transplant.

    “HRSA builds the health workforce and helps connect people in every part of the country to the essential health services they need–from routine checkups to maternal care to HIV prevention and so much more. Indiscriminately firing these staff risks putting critical health services out of reach for so many Americans, and it is extremely troubling that staff charged with modernizing our nation’s organ transplant network, which has faced longstanding issues, have been fired,” said Senator Murray.

    NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH (NIH)

    NIH is the nation’s premier medical research agency. Each year, NIH supports biomedical research that produces life-changing and, in many cases, lifesaving treatments and cures.

    Over 1,100 NIH employees have already been fired by Trump and Musk, including more than 130 employees at the National Cancer Institute and nearly 20% of the workforce at the National Institute on Aging, which funds Alzheimer’s disease research. This includes the Acting Director of the Center for Alzheimer’s and Related Dementias (CARD), alongside a number of senior scientists and principal investigators at CARD—leaving early career scientists and trainees without principal investigators guiding their work. Additional senior leaders at NIH are expected to be fired soon.

    The Trump administration is also continuing to hold up NIH funding, and its illegal and indiscriminate indirect cost rate change would create a massive funding shortfall for lifesaving research that patients and families are counting on. An estimated $1 billion in lifesaving research funding has already been prevented from going out the door to institutions in every state since January 20.

    “Trump isn’t just firing the scientists who put us on the cutting edge of biomedical research, he is taking the best hopes for patients desperately counting on new cures and treatments and throwing them in the shredder. Ousting top scientists and leaders at NIH–people who’ve spent decades gaining expertise and working to discover medical breakthroughs–does nothing to help patients searching for treatments that could save their lives. These firings create chaos–and dangerously set back NIH’s lifesaving work. Washington state is a hub for this work, and I’m already hearing from people in my state about how research into cancer, Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, heart disease, and so many other deadly conditions will be upended by Trump’s NIH cuts and these reckless–and heartless–layoffs. This is not just going to delay research—it will halt clinical trials in their tracks, cut patients off from care, and hollow out our medical research enterprise in ways that will echo for years to come,” said Senator Murray.

    SUBSTANCE ABUSE AND MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES ADMINISTRATION (SAMHSA)

    SAMHSA is charged with improving services and support available to people across the country for substance use disorder and mental health. The agency plays a leading role in tackling the fentanyl and opioid crisis, and it oversees the 988 Lifeline. Nonetheless, Trump and Musk have also begun laying off dozens of SAMHSA employees.

    “After years of bipartisan work, we are just starting to make progress getting opioid overdose deaths to trend down nationally—and now Trump is jeopardizing that progress by firing employees at the agency responsible for much of this work. Trump’s decision to fire these workers undermines the work happening on the ground in our communities to improve and save lives,” said Senator Murray.

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Farewell Address to Staff – Masatsugu Asakawa

    Source: Asia Development Bank

    Speech by Masatsugu Asakawa, President, Asian Development Bank, 19 February 2025, ADB headquarters, Manila, Philippines

    My very dear colleagues, here we are, together again in this room, where I stood before you five years ago to say, “hello,” and “call me Masa.” What a journey it has been!

    I don’t think any of us could have predicted what was in store for us on that February day back in 2020. Within just a few weeks, we were in the grip of a pandemic that drove us into lockdown, causing tremendous hardship and drastically changing how we work.

    My friends, our journey as an ADB family is forever connected to the journey of this region. And I believe we have shaped that journey, for the better.

    We have done our part to help our developing member countries to get through the pandemic and on a path to recovery; to be ready to tackle emerging crises and urgent threats, including the climate crisis; and to maintain focus on long-term development.

    I was so pleased to see highlights of this good work in the video you showed and to hear perspectives from Bruce, Nelly, and Bruno. Thank you very much for your kind words.

    I am deeply humbled that you credit our achievements to my contributions as President. But even more important, these achievements tell a story about what all of us can do when a challenge comes our way, and we face it together.

    So let me take a few moments to share a few reflections on how you have shaped me during this journey.

    I. Meeting unprecedented development challenges with quick and decisive action

    First, we needed quick, decisive, and bold action, at every step: as the pandemic struck, as the climate crisis mounted, and as there were calls to evolve to deliver better and faster.

    I remember coming to my office upstairs almost every day during lockdown. I held videoconferences with ministers and heads of state to see what assistance they needed. I knew ADB needed to respond without delay. And we did, thanks to you.

    I truly believe that our assistance helped to prevent grave suffering for millions, and fiscal collapse across our region. Our response, including budget and vaccine support, were spectacular achievements.

    The same is true for our climate action. I remember the intense discussions we had before going to Glasgow in 2021 for COP26. These paved the way for our $100 billion climate finance ambition, Energy Transition Mechanism, IF-CAP, and a just transition commitment across our climate operations. This was a real turning point that positioned us as the Climate Bank for Asia and the Pacific.

    II. Reforming and innovating to adapt to changing circumstances

    And then, we forged ahead with reforms, to unlock an additional $100 billion in lending capacity through CAF; to take stock, and make key shifts, through the NOM and midterm review of Strategy 2030; and to elevate critical agendas including private sector development, domestic resource mobilization, food security, digitalization, and gender equality.

    You also made sure that the poorest and most vulnerable in our region were not left behind. The ADF replenishment, including the novel financing you prepared, is helping people in places like Afghanistan and Myanmar, and small island developing states.

    All of this was made possible by thinking outside the box. The unprecedented circumstances we faced over the past five years demanded that ADB change quickly and do things differently. You did not hesitate to meet the demands of the moment.

    The circumstances also required ADB to balance many needs. Our operations shifted appropriately during the pandemic, to support response and recovery. It took some time for our climate financing to ramp back up, but it did. I know we will also continue to expand our contributions in areas like education and RCI.

    III. The priority of wellbeing

    As you can see, my friends, there was a lot on my mind over the past five years. A lot of things kept me up at night. But if I may, I’d like to emphasize my most important concern. It was to ensure the safety and wellbeing of staff.

    I spoke to you often during the pandemic. I even sent you a musical greeting on my flute! I hope that it brought you some comfort to know that you were not alone.

    Another experience that I have not talked about as much is the evacuation of our local staff from Afghanistan when the government fell in 2021. It was such a dangerous and unpredictable situation, and we had very few options. But we had to find a way to get our staff to safety. After consulting with heads of state and coming up with a complex plan, we managed to get everyone out, just in time.

    That experience reminded me that staff wellbeing must remain ADB’s highest priority. And the reason is clear: ADB’s most valuable asset is its staff. Even more simply, we are family. And I am so touched by the way you treated me like family.

    Colleagues in our field offices, you were always so warm and welcoming when I visited the countries where you live and work. The memories of our beneficiaries, the historical sites, and the delicious local cuisine—and the selfies I took with you!—will stay with me forever.

    IV. In praise of staff

    Ever since I announced my intention to step down, I have been flooded with good wishes and praise for what ADB has done for the region during my Presidency. But I firmly believe that these successes are not coming from me. They are coming from you.

    You have been so innovative, so responsible, and so loyal to our mission. I always knew that whenever we faced a problem, I could consult staff, and you would come up with quick and relevant solutions. That is why, from Day 1, I felt nothing but optimism that we would achieve our mission. And I was never disappointed.

    Closing

    Your work over the last five years has put our region on the strongest possible foundation to build lasting prosperity, to stay resilient through crises and disasters, and to ensure that growth is inclusive and sustainable.

    Asia and the Pacific will indeed remain an engine for global growth for decades to come. And you helped make that possible. I am honored by the ways you stepped up to accomplish everything that I asked of you—and everything the region needed from us. I am in awe of what you have achieved. And my trust in you will never fade.

    I will step away now, but I know that the course we have navigated these past five years will take us to an even brighter future. I will be cheering for you every step of the way.

    And so, my dearest colleagues, my beloved friends and ADB family, thank you for a job well done. I wish you health, happiness, and good fortune on this unforgettable journey.

    Thank you.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI USA: Jefferson, How Healthy are U.S. Households’ Balance Sheets?

    Source: US State of New York Federal Reserve

    Thank you, Professor Ho for that kind introduction and for the opportunity to talk to the Vassar community.1 I am happy to be back on campus. As a teenager in Washington, D.C., I had the very good fortune that a high school counselor pushed me to apply to Vassar College. I was accepted, and I earned my bachelor’s degree here. Attending Vassar opened a wider variety of opportunities to me than I would have otherwise had available. But I encountered one problem: Vassar did not offer any banking or business courses, which is what I wanted to study. So, I enrolled in an economics class, figuring it was the next best thing. I was hooked, and I have been studying economics ever since.

    My time here as a student was transformative, and I was honored to have served on Vassar’s board from 2002 to 2022. Vassar is a vibrant intellectual community.
    To motivate the topic of today’s speech, let me begin by sharing with you briefly my assessment of the current state of the U.S. economy. The performance of the U.S. economy has been quite strong overall.2 Last year, gross domestic product grew at a solid pace of 2.5 percent. I see the labor market as being in a solid position, with job creation steady and the unemployment rate at 4 percent in January. Inflation has come down a great deal over the past two and a half years but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent target. Based on recently released data, it is estimated that the 12-month change in the personal consumption expenditures price index was 2.4 percent in January. Progress toward our 2 percent objective has been slow in the past year. I expect the path of inflation to continue to be bumpy. While a cumulative cut in the policy rate by 100 basis points last year has brought the stance of monetary policy closer to a neutral setting, monetary policy continues to be restrictive. I believe that, with a strong economy and a solid labor market, we can take our time to assess the incoming data to make any further adjustments to our policy rate.
    Household consumption grew by 3.2 percent over last year. Understanding the causes of the continued robustness in consumer spending is important because it accounts for two-thirds of overall economic activity. Therefore, any accurate forecast of future economic activity would need to get the growth in consumer spending right.
    Today, I will discuss one important factor behind the recent strength in consumer spending: households’ balance sheets—that is, their assets, such as stocks, bank accounts, and houses, and their liabilities, such as mortgages, car loans, and other forms of borrowing. At first glance, households appear to be in a strong financial position. Overall, American households currently possess a very high level of wealth that is driven by elevated house values, relatively low overall debt levels, and a strong stock market.
    Asset performance and the amount of debt, however, explain only part of the picture. The health of household finances also depends on the cost of new and existing debt and the availability of credit. Household balance sheets are an important factor behind the recent strength in consumer spending. That said, some households may have a difficult time weathering unexpected costs or economic shocks. Looking at a variety of indicators across the income distribution shows that, while, in aggregate, household balance sheets are indeed strong, low- and middle-income households, and those with lower credit scores, may be stretched.
    The remainder of my talk is organized as follows. I will begin by discussing household wealth, both in aggregate and across the distribution of income. Then, I connect elevated wealth to recent spending patterns. After that, I discuss the assets side of household balance sheets. Then, I turn to liabilities, including the cost of servicing debt. Next, I discuss households’ ability to get new credit and the cost of such credit. Before concluding, I discuss the role of households’ balance sheets in the transmission of monetary policy.
    Overall Household Wealth and Its Implications for SpendingLet me now turn to the overall picture of household wealth. Figure 1 shows a stylized household balance sheet, with assets on the left and liabilities on the right. Net worth, also called wealth, is the difference between the two sides of the balance sheet—assets less liabilities—and it is a key indicator of households’ financial health. Relative to income, households’ net worth is near its highest level in the past 30 years. Total net worth in the U.S. was over $50 trillion higher in the third quarter of last year than it was at the end of 2019. After one accounts for inflation, this accumulation represents an increase in overall wealth of about 20 percent for U.S. households, as shown by the solid black line in figure 2.
    These recent gains in household net worth have been broad based across the income distribution. The net worth of low- and middle-income households—defined as the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution and shown by the dashed red line—has increased in line with aggregate net worth.3 Although these households account for 25 percent of total consumption, which is less than their population share, they are still key to the performance of the economy overall.
    Let me now turn to the implications of household net worth for our understanding of the recent strength in spending. Figure 3 shows the saving rate, which measures the share of disposable income—that is, income after taxes and government transfers—that households save rather than spend. The saving rate has fluctuated widely over the past few years. It rose during the pandemic, as many households received supplementary income support from the government and some cut back on spending. Then, households spent some of the savings that they had accumulated during the pandemic, leading the saving rate to fall to a relatively low level in 2022. The saving rate has recovered somewhat since then. Now, it hovers around 1 to 1.5 percentage points below its level before the pandemic, indicating that households are still spending more of their income than usual. It seems likely that elevated household wealth helps explain this higher-than-usual spending.
    Overall spending has been elevated, but how has high consumption been spread across the income distribution? Recent research shows that the spending of low- and middle-income households has lagged that of higher-income households over the past few years.4 As shown in figure 4, although real retail spending growth moved similarly for all households before the pandemic, it has diverged since the middle of 2021. Since then, spending for low-income households moved roughly sideways until the middle of last year, when it began to grow again. High-income households’ consumption, by contrast, has grown more consistently over this period.
    AssetsHaving discussed net worth and its implications for spending, now I drill down into the two components of net worth—household assets and liabilities. With regard to the asset side, elevated net worth largely reflects gains in two important asset categories: stock market holdings and real estate. Each category accounts for roughly one-fourth of households’ assets. The stock market valuation has increased at a very rapid pace over the past five years, leading to a $20 trillion rise in the value of households’ stock portfolios. As house prices rose, the value of households’ real estate has also increased by about the same amount.
    Real estate is a particularly important source of wealth for low- and middle-income households, comprising 40 percent of their net worth. Therefore, the growth in real estate wealth over the past five years accounts for a very significant share—over half—of the increase in these households’ overall wealth. That said, many low-income households do not own their home, and so they did not benefit from the growth in house prices. Equities comprise a smaller share of these households’ wealth, and so they account for only around 10 percent of the increase in their wealth.
    Wealth allows households to weather unexpected shocks, such as the loss of a job or a surprise bill; however, not all forms of wealth are quickly and easily accessible in case of such emergencies. It can be expensive for households to access the equity that they have in their homes. Also, much of households’ stock holdings are in retirement accounts that are difficult to liquidate. So, to understand how resilient households’ financial situations are, I also pay close attention to the most liquid components of their net worth, which include bank deposits and money market mutual funds. As the solid black line in figure 5 shows, in aggregate, households hold about 20 percent more of these liquid assets than they did before the pandemic. As the dashed red line shows, in contrast to the aggregate, low- and middle-income households have a slightly smaller liquid asset buffer than they did before the pandemic. This smaller buffer suggests that some of these households may not be as equipped to handle economic shocks as they were five years ago. That said, low- and middle-income households still hold more of these assets than they did 10 years ago, when many of them were still recovering from the Great Recession.
    On the whole, the asset side of households’ balance sheets paints a very healthy picture of their financial positions. Rising house and equity prices have increased net worth for households across the income distribution, and elevated asset valuations seem to help explain strong consumption growth last year.
    LiabilitiesLet me now turn to household liabilities—what households owe to their lenders. Figure 6 plots three major categories of household debt relative to disposable personal income.5 You see home mortgages, the largest share, at the bottom in blue; consumer credit, which includes credit cards, auto loans, student loans in orange; and other consumer loans in beige.6
    Total household debt rose through the 2000s and peaked around the time of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009. It then began a slow decline as households “deleveraged.” The evolution of total debt is driven by mortgage debt, which currently accounts for about 60 percent of total household debt. Mortgage debt levels remain relatively subdued after rising somewhat during the COVID-19 pandemic, partly due to increasing home prices leading borrowers to take out larger loans.
    Figure 7 zooms in on revolving credit—largely, credit card balances—which is part of the previous “consumer credit” category.7 Balances were at about 7 percent of disposable income until the COVID-19 pandemic. Households reduced their spending—decreasing the need for credit card debt—and in part used income support programs to pay down existing credit card debt. The result was a nearly 3 percentage point drop in revolving credit relative to disposable personal income. As consumer spending rose and households began to take on more credit card debt, this ratio began to rebound in 2021 but remains about 1 percentage point below its pre-pandemic levels.
    Although levels of debt may be low, how costly is it for households to remain current on that debt? Figure 8 plots the debt service ratio, which is the amount of required debt payments relative to disposable personal income.8 Along with the fall in debt to which I just referred, this ratio plummeted during the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. It has since risen, but it remains about 1 percentage point below its pre-pandemic level. That said, interest payments on revolving debt, which excludes mortgages, have risen over the past few years. The share of disposable personal income going to pay this interest rate is now slightly higher than it was just before the pandemic.
    Credit Availability and CostsSo far, I have discussed households’ current debt liabilities and how households are able to manage their current debt payments. Even households with elevated levels of assets may wish to obtain new credit. Policymakers and economists often ask, how easy is it for households, in general, to increase their borrowing, and at what cost?
    Lenders consider a range of factors in determining whether to supply credit and how much credit to extend. One key factor is the borrower’s “credit risk score.” These scores, which are calculated by private companies, use information on individuals’ past payment behavior and a variety of other factors to create a number that is predictive of their ability to repay debt.
    Figure 9 plots the fraction of individuals with credit risk scores in the subprime, near-prime, and prime categories since 2014. There has been a gradual increase in the fraction of borrowers with prime scores, in part reflecting the deleveraging that I referred to earlier, which is mirrored by the decline in the fraction with subprime scores. As you can see, the fraction of subprime scores took a sharp turn downward at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. At that time, many people were able to use the pandemic-era income support programs to become current on their debt and otherwise boost their scores into near-prime and prime categories. This “credit score migration” helped many individuals obtain credit.9
    Before obtaining new credit, people may first turn to lines of credit that they already have—for example, credit cards. Figure 10 plots “utilization rates”—the ratio of credit card balances to credit limits—for subprime, near-prime, and prime consumers. Utilization rates fell for all three groups at the beginning of the pandemic but have risen since then and are now somewhat above their pre-pandemic levels for both subprime and near-prime borrowers. These groups may be reluctant to draw down their credit lines further.
    It can be challenging to determine the availability of new credit. While the total amount of credit that people have and their new borrowing can be observed, these quantities are determined both by lenders’ willingness to supply credit and borrowers’ demand for credit. Borrowers taking out fewer new loans may be due to a reduced supply of credit, lower demand for credit, or a combination of the two. Sometimes, however, one of these factors can be identified. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, reductions in household spending and increases in income support programs likely reduced the demand for credit, contributing to the decline in debt levels during that period.
    A more systematic method that we have used at the Federal Reserve to help disentangle credit supply from demand has involved questions in our Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, or SLOOS.10 This quarterly survey asks officials who oversee bank lending practices for their institutions about how they have changed loan underwriting standards over the past quarter for a variety of loan categories. “Loan underwriting standards,” also known more simply as lending standards, refers to the requirements that banks impose before extending a loan. For example, banks may establish minimum credit risk scores for potential borrowers to qualify for certain kinds of consumer borrowing. Banks that raise minimum credit scores are said to have “tightened” standards and those that lower them to have “eased” standards. Tightening standards likely reduces the supply of credit.11
    Because the SLOOS surveys commercial banks, its results are most informative for those loan categories for which banks do a substantial amount of lending. Hence, figure 11 shows survey results for consumer loans (credit card and auto loans), averaged together, weighting by balance sheet size.12 Banks make almost all credit card loans, and about one-third of auto loans. The figure plots the fraction of banks that have reported tightening less the fraction that have reported easing each quarter, weighted by the bank’s loan portfolio—so that plus-100 percent would indicate that all banks tightened, and minus-100 percent would indicate that all banks eased standards. For both credit cards and auto loans, banks eased standards in the early days of the pandemic but began to tighten them in 2022. More recent responses suggest that banks continued to tighten standards over 2024, making it more difficult for borrowers to obtain new loans. Although this tightening could limit growth in spending by those households that would need more credit cards to do so, recall that higher-credit-score borrowers are not close to exhausting their credit lines. In the most recent survey, banks have eased standards, which could support spending.
    Monetary Policy TransmissionNow, before I conclude, let me say a few things about how the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has been affecting the cost of borrowing for households. The primary tool that the Federal Reserve uses to influence the economy is the federal funds rate. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to discuss the appropriate setting of the committee’s target range for the federal funds rate. The FOMC’s objective when setting this range is to achieve its congressionally mandated goals of maximum employment and price stability. Changes in the FOMC’s target for the federal funds rate affect overall financial conditions through various channels, including its effect on interest rates that matter for consumers’ decisions to purchase houses and cars or borrow on their credit cards. For example, when the FOMC eases monetary policy—that is, reduces its target for the federal funds rate—the resulting lower interest rates on consumer loans elicit greater spending on goods and services. Higher spending can, in turn, lead prices to rise. Lower mortgage rates make buying a house more affordable and encourage existing homeowners to refinance their mortgages. Of course, the rates charged on longer-term loans, such as mortgages, are also affected by expectations of how monetary policy and the broader economy will evolve over the duration of the loans, not just by the current level of the federal funds rate.
    With respect to lending costs, the reductions in the target range for the federal funds rate last year have begun to pass through to rates on consumer borrowing. In the credit card market, interest rates are floating and are set as a fixed markup over the prime rate. By convention, the prime rate is equal to the upper end of the target range the FOMC sets for the federal funds rate, plus 3 percentage points.13 As seen in figure 12, auto loan and credit card rates have fallen in recent months, with the decline in the prime rate. Rates on auto loans are also influenced by the interest rates on shorter-maturity Treasury securities and risk spreads lenders assess to account for delinquencies and defaults. Auto loan rates have declined, thus far largely because of falls in risk spreads.
    In the U.S., mortgages are generally fixed rate and have a longer duration than most other forms of consumer borrowing. Consequently, rates on new and existing loans can differ substantially. As shown by the solid blue line in figure 13, the majority of households still have mortgages with rates below 4 percent that were set some time ago. But rates on new mortgages are elevated compared with the ranges observed since the 2007–09 financial crisis, with the current average 30-year fixed rate around 7 percent. As I noted earlier, mortgages’ long duration means their rates are driven more by longer-term interest rates, which are in turn determined by many factors beyond just monetary policy. Households who recently became homeowners or moved must bear the cost of paying elevated mortgage rates. As a result, many are not moving.14
    Overall, interest rates for many forms of consumer credit—with the notable exception of mortgages—have declined in recent months, starting to show the effects of the recent fall in shorter-term interest rates. Nonetheless, available data suggest that while new credit is available for households with higher credit scores and income levels, those households with lower credit scores and income levels are finding it relatively more difficult to obtain credit.
    ConclusionLet’s return to the title question: How strong are households’ balance sheets? Generally, households appear to be in a good position: Asset holdings are high across the income distribution, driven by high house and equity prices, and debt levels are subdued. Interest rates on some forms of debt have begun to come down, and required debt service is low as a share of income. That said, some households appear to be stretched. Lower-credit-score households’ utilization rates are elevated, and banks have tightened loan underwriting standards on some forms of credit. And even though, as a group, low- and middle-income households possess elevated levels of overall wealth, they have less of a buffer of liquid assets than they did before the pandemic. These indicators suggest that certain groups of households may have a hard time weathering unexpected costs or economic shocks.
    In closing, let me reiterate that it is important to monitor closely the strength of household balance sheets, which inform forecasts of overall economic activity. Strong balance sheets help support consumption spending, which in turn can help deliver the economic growth that puts the Federal Reserve in the best position to achieve its policy goals of maximum employment and price stability.
    ReferencesAladangady, Aditya, Jacob Krimmel, and Tess Scharlemann (2024). “Locked In: Rate Hikes, Housing Markets, and Mobility,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-088. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, November.
    Bassett, William F., Mary Beth Chosak, John C. Driscoll, and Egon Zakrajšek (2014). “Changes in Bank Lending Standards and the Macroeconomy,” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 62 (March), pp. 23–40.
    Driscoll, John C., Jessica N. Flagg, Bradley Katcher, and Kamila Sommer (2024). “The Effects of Credit Score Migration on Subprime Auto Loan and Credit Card Delinquencies,” FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, January 12.
    English, William B. (2021). “The ‘Marketization’ of Bank Business Loans in the United States.” Working Paper, Yale School of Management, October.
    Goodman, Sarena, Geng Li, Alvaro Mezza, and Lucas Nathe (2021). “Developments in the Credit Score Distribution over 2020,” FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, April 30.
    Hacıoğlu Hoke, Sinem, Leo Feler, and Jack Chylak (2024). “A Better Way of Understanding the US Consumer: Decomposing Retail Spending by Household Income,” FEDS Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, October 11.

    1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. Return to text
    2. For a detailed discussion on my recent views on inflation, see Philip N. Jefferson (2025), “U.S. Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy,” speech delivered at the Economics Department Special Lecture, Lafayette College, Easton, Pennsylvania, February 4; and for my recent views on the labor market, see Philip N. Jefferson (2025), “Do Non-inflationary Economic Expansions Promote Shared Prosperity? Evidence from the U.S. Labor Market,” speech delivered at Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, Pennsylvania, February 5. Return to text
    3. See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2024), “DFA: Distributional Financial Accounts,” webpage. These data provide quarterly estimates of the distribution of a comprehensive measure of U.S. household wealth. Return to text
    4. For more details, see Hacıoğlu Hoke, Feler, and Chylak (2024). Return to text
    5. Data are taken from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2024), Statistical Release Z.1, “Financial Accounts of the United States”. Return to text
    6. See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2024), Statistical Release Z.1, “Financial Accounts of the United States”. Return to text
    7. Data are taken from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2025), Statistical Release G.19, “Consumer Credit”. Return to text
    8. For the series and information on how it is computed, see Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2024), “Household Debt Service Ratios”. Return to text
    9. For more discussion, see Goodman and others (2021) and Driscoll and others (2024). Return to text
    10. See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2025), “Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices”. Return to text
    11. For an example of use of the SLOOS to help disentangle loan supply and demand, see Bassett and others (2014). Return to text
    12. The SLOOS results reported here are based on banks’ responses weighted by each bank’s outstanding loans in the respective loan category and might therefore differ from the results reported in the published SLOOS, which are based on banks’ unweighted responses. Return to text
    13. Before the establishment in 2008 of a range for the federal fund rate, the convention was to use the target for the federal funds rate plus 3 percentage points. See English (2021) for more discussion. Return to text
    14. See Aladangady, Krimmel, and Scharlemann (2024). Return to text

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Security: Detroit Man Sentenced To Over Four Years in Federal Prison For Participating In Multi-State Pandemic Unemployment Insurance Fraud Scheme

    Source: Office of United States Attorneys

    DETROIT – A man from Detroit, Michigan was sentenced today for his role in a multi-state, million-dollar unemployment insurance fraud scheme aimed at defrauding the U.S. government and the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Maryland, of funds earmarked for unemployment assistance during the COVID-19 pandemic, announced Acting United States Attorney Julie A. Beck.

    Joining in the announcement were Special Agent in Charge Cheyvoryea Gibson, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Special Agent in Charge Charles Miller, Internal Revenue Service-Criminal Investigation, and Megan Howell, Acting Special Agent in Charge, Chicago Region, U.S. Department of Labor Office of Inspector General.

    Tracey Dotson, 49, was sentenced to 51 months in prison and ordered to pay more than $900,000 in restitution in the sentence handed down by United States District Judge Matthew F. Leitman.

    According to court records, Dotson and a co-defendant conspired to, and did, defraud the federal government and the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Maryland of roughly $1 million in funds intended to support individuals who had lost their jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic. The pair committed their crimes through the use of interstate wires and the unauthorized possession and use of social security numbers and other means of identification belonging to other individuals.

    Dotson pleaded guilty to wire fraud and conspiracy to commit wire fraud in April 2024. Dotson and his co-defendant, using stolen personal identification, filed hundreds of false unemployment claims with state unemployment insurance agencies in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Maryland in the names of other individuals without their knowledge or consent.   The defendants then received hundreds of Bank of America prepaid debit cards in the names of those individuals loaded with roughly $1 million in Pandemic Unemployment Assistance funds at addresses in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Dotson, his co-defendant, and their accomplices then successfully unloaded more than $930,000 from the cards via cash withdrawals and purchases that included high-end jewelry, designer fashion accessories by Gucci and Louis Vuitton, drugs, at least one vehicle, and at least one firearm.

    “Taxpayer unemployment assistance funds diverted to the pockets of criminals during the pandemic resulted in fewer resources that were available for those genuinely in need at that challenging time,” said Acting U.S. Attorney Julie Beck. “Our office is steadfast in its commitment to bringing those to justice who used a global health crisis as a means to illegally line their own pockets at the expense of taxpayers. “

    “This sentence underscores the FBI’s commitment to investigating complex financial crimes,” said Cheyvoryea Gibson, Special Agent in Charge of the FBI in Michigan. “We will not tolerate the greed and selfish conduct demonstrated by those who chose to defraud the unemployment insurance system, especially when we faced an unprecedented global pandemic. The FBI and our federal partners remain steadfast in holding criminals accountable and protecting government assistance programs. The pandemic may be in our rearview mirrors, but our investigations continue to move forward in the name of justice.”

    “Individuals who commit such blatant unemployment insurance fraud and identity theft of this magnitude deserve to be punished to the fullest extent of the law,” said Charles Miller, Special Agent in Charge, Detroit Field Office, IRS Criminal Investigation.  “Tracey Dotson and his co-conspirator took advantage of a program intended to help those in need get through a devastating global pandemic, exposed personal identity information of many, and caused immeasurable hardship to innocent victims. IRS Criminal Investigation remains committed to the pursuit of pandemic fraud and identity theft, together with our partners at the U.S. Attorney’s Office, we will hold those who engage in similar conduct accountable.”

    “Tracey Dotson and his co-conspirator defrauded multiple state workforce agencies by using stolen identities to obtain unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. As a result, he stole vital taxpayer resources intended for unemployed American workers in dire need of UI benefits. Today’s sentencing affirms the Office of Inspector General’s commitment to work with our law enforcement partners to investigate and bring to justice those who exploit this critical benefit program,” said Megan Howell, Acting Special Agent-in-Charge, Great Lakes Region, U.S. Department of Labor, Office of Inspector General.

    This case was prosecuted by Assistant United States Attorneys Carl D. Gilmer-Hill and Jessica A. Nathan. The investigation was conducted jointly by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Internal Revenue Service – Criminal Investigation, and Department of Labor, Office of Inspector General.

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI Security: Financial TV News Analyst-Turned-Fugitive Agrees to Plead Guilty to Federal Charge for Conning Investors Out of Millions of Dollars

    Source: Office of United States Attorneys

    LOS ANGELES – A former San Gabriel Valley resident – who was a frequent guest on financial television news programs then became a fugitive from justice after being accused of scamming investors – has agreed to plead guilty to defrauding his victims out of at least $2.7 million, the Justice Department announced today.

    James Arthur McDonald Jr., 53, formerly of Arcadia, has agreed to plead guilty to one count of securities fraud, a felony that carries a statutory maximum sentence of 20 years in federal prison.

    McDonald has been in federal custody since June 2024, when he was arrested in a residence in Port Orchard, Washington, after being a fugitive since November 2021, when he failed to appear before the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to testify after allegations arose that he had defrauded investors. 

    According to his plea agreement, at McDonald’s Washington state hideout, law enforcement found, among other things, a fake Washington, D.C., driver’s license bearing McDonald’s photograph and the name “Brian Thomas.”

    McDonald was the CEO and chief investment officer of two companies headquartered in Los Angeles: Hercules Investments LLC and Index Strategy Advisors Inc. (ISA). He frequently appeared as an analyst on the CNBC financial television news network.

    In late 2020, McDonald lost tens of millions of dollars of Hercules client money after adopting a risky short position that effectively bet against the health of the United States economy in the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election. McDonald projected that the COVID-19 pandemic and the election would result in major selloffs that would cause the stock market to drop. When the market decline didn’t occur, Hercules clients lost between $30 million and $40 million. By December 2020, Hercules clients were complaining to company employees about the losses in their accounts, according to court documents.

    In early 2021, McDonald solicited millions of dollars’ worth of funds from investors in the form of a purported capital raise for Hercules but misrepresented how the funds would be used and failed to disclose the massive losses Hercules previously sustained. As part of the capital raise, McDonald obtained $675,000 in investment funds from one victim group on March 9, 2021. He misappropriated most of those funds in various ways, including spending $174,610 at a Porsche dealership and transferring $109,512 to the landlord of a home McDonald was renting in Arcadia.

    McDonald also defrauded clients of ISA, his other firm, using less than half of the approximately $3.6 million he raised for trading purposes. Instead, McDonald frequently commingled ISA client funds with funds from his personal bank account, which he used to purchase luxury cars and to pay rent on his home, personal credit card charges, and Hercules operating expenses and to make Ponzi-like payments to ISA clients — that is, paying some ISA clients using funds from other clients. 

    In total, McDonald caused losses of between approximately $2,745,892 and approximately $3,025,892, according to his plea agreement.

    The FBI and IRS Criminal Investigation are investigating this matter.

    In September 2022, the SEC filed a civil complaint charging McDonald and Hercules with violations of federal securities law. In April 2024, United States District Judge Percy Anderson found McDonald and Hercules liable and ordered that they pay several million dollars in disgorgement and civil penalties.

    Assistant United States Attorneys Alexander B. Schwab and Nisha Chandran of the Corporate and Securities Fraud Strike Force are prosecuting this case.

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-Evening Report: More people are asking generative AI questions about their health. But the wrong answer can be risky

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julie Ayre, Post Doctoral Research Fellow, Sydney Health Literacy Lab, University of Sydney

    Shvets Production/Pexels

    More people are turning to generative artificial intelligence (AI) to help them in their daily and professional lives. ChatGPT is one of the most well-known and widely available generative AI tools. It gives tailored, plausible answers to any question for free.

    There is so much potential for generative AI tools to help people learn about their health. But the answers are not always correct. Relying solely on ChatGPT for health advice can be risky and cause unnecessary concern.

    Generative AI is still a relatively new technology, and is constantly changing. Our new study provides the first Australian data about who is using ChatGPT to answer health questions, for what purposes.

    The results can help tell people how to use this new technology for their health, and the new skills needed to use it safely – in other words, to build “AI health literacy”.

    Who uses ChatGPT for health? What do they ask?

    In June 2024 we asked a nationally representative sample of more than 2,000 Australians if they had used ChatGPT to answer health questions.

    One in ten (9.9%) had asked ChatGPT a health question in the first half of 2024.

    On average they reported that they “somewhat” trusted ChatGPT (3.1 out of 5).

    We also found the proportion of people using ChatGPT for health was higher for people who had low health literacy, were born in a non-English speaking country, or spoke another language at home.

    This suggests ChatGPT may be supporting people who find it hard to engage with traditional forms of health information in Australia.

    One in ten Australians asked ChatGPT a health question in the first half of last year.
    Kampus Productions/Pexels

    The most common questions that people asked ChatGPT related to:

    • learning about a health condition (48%)
    • finding out what symptoms mean (37%)
    • asking about actions (36%)
    • or understanding medical terms (35%).

    More than half (61%) had asked at least one question that would usually require clinical advice. We classified these questions as “riskier”. Asking ChatGPT what your symptoms mean can give you a rough idea, but cannot substitute clinical advice.

    People who were born in a non-English speaking country or who spoke another language at home were more likely to ask these types of questions.

    Why does this matter?

    The number of people using generative AI for health information is likely to grow. In our study, 39% of people who had not yet used ChatGPT for health would consider doing so in the next six months.

    The overall number of people using generative AI tools for health information is even higher if we consider other tools such as Google Gemini, Microsoft Copilot, and Meta AI.

    Notably, in our study we saw that people from culturally and linguistically diverse communities may be more likely to use ChatGPT for health information.

    If they were asking ChatGPT to translate health information, this adds another layer of complexity. Generative AI tools are generally less accurate in other languages.

    We need investment in services (whether human or machine) to ensure speaking another language is not a barrier to high quality health information.

    What does ‘AI health literacy’ look like?

    Generative AI is here to stay, presenting both opportunities and risks to people who use it for health information.

    On the one hand, this technology appeals to people who already face significant barriers accessing health care and health information. One of its key benefits is its ability to instantly provide health information that is easy to understand.

    A recent review of studies showed generative AI tools are increasingly capable of answering general health questions using plain language, although they were less accurate for complex health topics.

    This has clear benefits as most health information is written at a level that is too complex for the general population, including during the pandemic.

    On the other hand, people are turning to general-purpose AI tools for health advice. This is riskier for questions that require clinical judgment and a broader understanding of the patient.

    There have already been case studies showing the dangers of using general purpose AI tools to decide whether to go to hospital or not.

    Where else can you go for this information?

    We need to help people think carefully about the kinds of questions they’re asking AI tools, and connect them with appropriate services that can answer these riskier questions.

    Organisations such as HealthDirect provide a national free helpline where you can speak with a registered nurse about whether to go to hospital or see a doctor. HealthDirect also provides an online SymptomChecker tool to help you figure out your next steps.

    While many Australian health agencies are developing AI policies, most are focused on how health services and staff engage with this technology.

    We urgently need to equip our community with AI health literacy skills. This need will grow as more people use AI tools for health, and it will also change as the AI tools evolve.

    Julie Ayre receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (APP2017278). The Health Literacy Editor is a research tool owned by the University of Sydney. It is sublicensed to Health Literacy Solutions PTY Ltd to enable wider public use. Julie Ayre (study author) is a co-director of Health Literacy Solutions PTY Ltd. She takes no personal income from Health Literacy Solutions PTY Ltd or the Health Literacy Editor.

    Kirsten McCaffery receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (APP2016719). The Health Literacy Editor is a research tool owned by the University of Sydney. It is sub-licensed to Health Literacy Solutions PTY Ltd to enable wider public use. Kirsten McCaffery is a co-director of Health Literacy Solutions PTY Ltd. She takes no personal income from Health Literacy Solutions PTY Ltd or the Health Literacy Editor.

    Erin Cvejic does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. More people are asking generative AI questions about their health. But the wrong answer can be risky – https://theconversation.com/more-people-are-asking-generative-ai-questions-about-their-health-but-the-wrong-answer-can-be-risky-249383

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Experts of the Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights Welcome the Philippines’ Human Rights Commitments , Ask about Attacks on Human Rights Defenders, Indigenous Land Rights and Drug Use Policies

    Source: United Nations – Geneva

    The Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights today concluded its review of the seventh periodic report of the Philippines, with Committee Experts welcoming the State’s human rights plans and commitments, and asking about attacks on human rights defenders, indigenous land rights and drug use policies.

    Asraf Ally Caunhye, Committee Expert and Leader of the Taskforce for the Philippines, in opening remarks, welcomed the State party’s human rights plans and commitments.

    Hesaid, however, that there had been 305 killings of human rights defenders in the Philippines since the last review. The Philippines ranked third globally for killings of human rights defenders. What measures were in place to ensure that those responsible for these crimes were prosecuted and sanctioned?

    Mr. Caunhye said indigenous peoples continued to face violations of their economic, social and cultural rights through the destruction of ancestral lands by extractive industries approved by the State. How would the State party protect the rights of indigenous peoples?

    Ludovic Hennebel, Committee Vice-Chair and Member of the Taskforce for the Philippines, asked about plans to decriminalise drugs for personal use and implement alternatives to imprisonment for drug users. What measures were in place to put an end to the “war on drugs” and to provide reparations to victims?

    Rosemarie G. Edillon, Undersecretary, Policy and Planning Group, National Economic and Development Authority of the Philippines and head of the delegation, introducing the report, said economic development, resilience building, and poverty reduction were central to the Government’s human rights agenda. From 2015 to 2023, the poverty rate dropped from 23.5 to 15.5 per cent of the population. The State was providing social protection to the most vulnerable and disadvantaged.

    There was no State policy to attack human rights defenders, the delegation said. There were remedies to address violations of the right to life, and freedom of association and assembly.

    On indigenous land rights, the delegation said the Indigenous Peoples’ Rights Act protected designated ancestral grounds and cultural heritage as “no-go zones” for development projects and emphasised free, prior and informed consent for all such projects. The Government was mapping and registering indigenous cultural assets to protect them.

    Regarding drug policies, the delegation said the Government was adopting a humanitarian approach to drug use and rehabilitation. Many drug users were treated in communities rather than in rehabilitation centres. Persons who participated in rehabilitation programmes were removed from criminal offender lists.

    In concluding remarks, Mr. Caunhye said discussions had brought to light issues that needed to be addressed to strengthen the implementation of economic, social and cultural rights in the Philippines. This information would inform the Committee’s concluding observations.

    Ms. Edillon, in her concluding remarks, said the State party was united in its goal of advancing economic, social and cultural rights. It would continue with actions that would create change and realise the economic, social and cultural rights of all citizens.

    In her concluding remarks, Laura-Maria Craciunean-Tatu, Committee Chair, thanked the delegation for participating in the dialogue and for providing comprehensive answers.

    The delegation of the Philippines was comprised of representatives from the National Security Council; the National Commission on Muslim Filipinos; the National Commission on Indigenous Peoples; the National Council on Disability Affairs; the Philippine National Police; the Department of Health; the Presidential Human Rights Committee Secretariat; the Dangerous Drugs Board; the Department of Justice; the Department of Health; the National Economic and Development Authority; the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency; the Department of Education; the Department of Labour and Employment; the Department of Social Welfare and Development; the Department of Foreign Affairs; and the Permanent Mission of the Philippines to the United Nations Office at Geneva.

    The Committee’s seventy-seventh session is being held until 28 February 2025. All documents relating to the Committee’s work, including reports submitted by States parties, can be found on the session’s webpage . Webcasts of the meetings of the session can be found here , and meetings summaries can be found here .

    The Committee will next meet in public at 5:30 p.m. on Friday, 28 February, to close its seventy-seventh session.

    Report.

    The Committee has before it the seventh periodic report of the Philippines (E/C.12/PHL/7).

    Presentation of Report

    ROSEMARIE G. EDILLON, Undersecretary, Policy and Planning Group, National Economic and Development Authority of the Philippines and head of the delegation, said that through the Philippine Development Plan, which she led, the Government aimed to enable and empower every Philippine citizen to achieve a comfortable lifestyle and a secure future. The 1987 Constitution served as a firm foundation for the protection and promotion of economic, social and cultural rights. This foundation was reinforced by laws, policies and programmes that supported workers, promoted equitable economic participation, and provided social protection.

    The Government had put in place a plan for economic and social transformation that accelerated economic and social recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic toward a prosperous, inclusive and resilient society and achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Economic development, resilience building, and poverty reduction were central to the Government’s human rights agenda. From 2015 to 2023, the poverty rate dropped from 23.5 per cent to 15.5 per cent of the population. The State had been employing a multi-dimensional strategy to reduce poverty, expanding the economic pie, facilitating access by the poor to the drivers of economic growth, and providing social protection to the most vulnerable and disadvantaged. It had broad-based programmes like the conditional cash transfer programme, which benefitted over 4.4 million households. Beneficiaries were also covered by other social development programmes.

    The labour market had made a strong recovery after the pandemic. Employment figures were favourable, but there was much volatility and uncertainty in domestic and external fronts. For this reason, Congress had passed legislation that mandated a 10-year labour market development plan, which promoted a dynamic, efficient and inclusive labour market environment.

    Legislative measures had been enacted to institutionalise and expand social protection. In healthcare, the universal health care law ensured automatic PhilHealth coverage for all citizens. Family planning initiatives had prevented an estimated 774,000 unsafe abortions and 1,400 maternal deaths annually. The Mental Health Act expanded services to ensure informed consent in treatment, prohibit shackling, and provide culturally sensitive care. Ongoing efforts focused on breaking barriers such as attitudinal biases, inadequate modifications in public spaces, and employment challenges faced by persons with disabilities.

    Following disruptions caused by the pandemic, the Department of Education launched the basic education development plan 2030 and the learning recovery continuity plan to reverse learning loss. Enrolment had rebounded to 28.5 million learners in the 2022–2023 school year, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. The Government was also strengthening access to special education through policies like Department of Education order no. 44, which provided clear guidance for implementing programmes tailored for learners with disabilities.

    Free, prior and informed consent was a cornerstone of the State’s indigenous peoples’ rights. Although challenges persisted in its effective enforcement, the Philippines continued to collaborate with key stakeholders and communities to ensure that indigenous rights and sustainable development initiatives were effectively upheld. It continued to promote and safeguard the cultural integrity of indigenous peoples by conducting initiatives that highlighted traditional knowledge, practices and crafts.

    Building on these initiatives, the Government, in collaboration with civil society, had launched the fourth Philippine human rights plan, a comprehensive roadmap for protecting and promoting human rights. Its second thematic chapter focused on the country’s commitment to the Covenant, integrating human rights into national development efforts and prioritising marginalised communities. The plan was aligned with the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028 and the Sustainable Development Goals.

    The Philippines reaffirmed its unwavering commitment to the Covenant and its principles. The dialogue with the Committee was an opportunity for introspection and growth. The Committee’s feedback and recommendations would serve as a valuable guide as the State strived to build a society where every citizen could progressively realise their economic, social and cultural rights; and no one was left behind.

    Questions by Committee Experts

    ASRAF ALLY CAUNHYE, Committee Expert and Country Rapporteur, asked about measures taken to incorporate the Covenant into the domestic legal system and to ensure the primacy of Covenant rights. In which court cases had Covenant rights been invoked? The Committee welcomed the State party’s human rights plans and commitments. What steps had been taken to ratify the Optional Protocol? 

    What system was in place to ensure that the judiciary was free from political influence? There had been 305 killings of human rights defenders since the last review. The Philippines ranked third globally for killings of human rights defenders. The existing legal institution was reportedly unable to prevent the red-tagging and killing of human rights defenders, including persons from indigenous communities and minority groups. What measures were in place to ensure that those responsible for these crimes were prosecuted and sanctioned?

    How did the Government prevent the abusive use of the Anti-Terrorism Act to restrict the activities of human rights defenders? What had barred the enactment of the bills on human rights defenders and the Human Rights Charter? How would the national human rights institution be enabled to function independently in accordance with the Paris Principles?

    Indigenous peoples continued to face violations of their economic, social and cultural rights through the destruction of ancestral lands. They were being deprived of their land management and food systems by extractive industries approved by the State. How would the State party protect the rights of indigenous peoples? What measures were in place to ensure that the National Commission on Indigenous Peoples expedited the issuance of land titles?

    What steps had been taken to ensure that free, prior and informed consent was obtained for extractive projects? What progress had been made in developing a national action plan on business and human rights? How did the State ensure that enterprises exercised due diligence when carrying out extractive activities and provided reparations for indigenous peoples affected by such activities?

    What measures were in place to implement the State’s commitments under the Paris Agreement? What resources had been allocated to addressing climate change? How was the State party addressing environmental pollution caused by extractive and logging activities?

    Despite a decline in poverty levels, 18 per cent of the population lived below the poverty line. Prevailing inequality in wealth remained high. The top 10 per cent of the population earned 45 per cent of gross national income, while the bottom 50 per cent earned only around four per cent. What measures would the State party take to eradicate poverty and support households living in poverty, rationalise fiscal policy, and introduce a progressive tax base that increased taxes for the wealthiest?

    Corruption was reportedly rampant in the police, the judiciary and other State institutions. What measures were in place to combat corruption? Were there cases in which politicians had been sentenced for corruption offences? Were there measures to allow citizens to access information held by Government bodies? Would the State party set up an anti-corruption commission or court?

    There was no anti-discrimination law in the Philippines. What steps had been taken to adopt an anti-discrimination bill? How would the State party protect vulnerable persons from discrimination? What measures had the State party taken to increase the representation of women in politics and decision-making positions, and in high income sectors of the economy? How was the State party providing childcare services to empower women to take part in the workforce?

    Responses by the Delegation 

    The delegation said the judiciary was independent and the Judicial Bar Council nominated judges independently. Justice programmes had been included in Government fiscal programmes to ensure that they were appropriately funded.

    The conditional cash transfer programme benefitted the poorest households with family members who were still in school. The poverty rate was at 15.5 per cent as of 2023. This rate had decreased thanks to State support programmes. The State party was investing in physical and digital connectivity for island provinces, which facilitated poor households’ access to growth centres.

    The Philippines was vulnerable to natural disasters. The Government was investing in disaster risk reduction and mitigation. Concerning the Paris Agreement, the State’s goals were to reduce emissions by 75 per cent, reduce dependence on fossil fuels, and increase the use of renewable energy. The Electric Vehicle Industry Development Act reduced tariffs on electric vehicles to encourage their import and use.

    The State party had specific laws on anti-discrimination in different fields. It did not have a bill on sexual orientation and gender identity, but had issued an executive order that concerned discrimination on the basis of gender preferences.

    The State party’s justice system, including the Supreme Court, and its national human rights institution, the Commission on Human Rights, effectively addressed complaints of human rights violations. There was thus no need to ratify the Optional Protocol.

    There were many non-governmental organizations in the Philippines that had expressed opposition to the current bill on human rights defenders. The State party had engaged with civil society organizations on the revision of the bill. The bill called for human rights defenders to not advocate for the violent overthrow of the Government.

    The State party was supporting the participation of women in the labour force. It had advocated for policies and legislation that allowed for nighttime work for women, safe spaces in workplaces, lengthened maternity and paternity leave and telework, and was conducting studies on inclusive work arrangements for women, youth and persons with disabilities.

    The Philippines’ Anti-Terrorism Act supported the country’s response to terrorism and safeguarded the rights of those accused of the crime. The State had issued guidelines on detentions and surveillance that ensured that persons’ rights were not violated. The Philippines’ rank in the Global Terrorism Indexhad fallen thanks to implementation of the Act. Investigations had been launched into all claims of misuse, and arrest warrants had been issued for officers who had misused the law. Enforcement of the Act was carried out with the highest level of responsibility. The State party ensured that its actions adhered to due process and the rule of law.

    The Philippines was a State party to the United Nations Convention against Corruption and had implement a national corruption prevention programme. Recently, it had hosted a regional conference on open governance and enacted a revision to the Government Procurement Act, which closed loopholes. An electronic procurement service had been launched to increase transparency. Many Government processes had been digitised, lessening opportunities for corruption.

    The Indigenous Peoples’ Rights Act protected designated ancestral grounds and cultural heritage as “no-go zones” for development projects and emphasised free, prior and informed consent for all such projects. The Government was mapping and registering indigenous cultural assets to protect them.

    The State had an indirect taxation system, as many families relied on overseas remittances for their income, which were not being taxed. The tax system punished undesirable behaviours such as the consumption of alcohol and cigarettes. Revenues from these taxes were being allocated to the health sector.

    Follow-Up Questions by Committee Experts 

    Committee Experts asked follow-up questions on measures to ensure that internally displaced persons had access to adequate food, basic housing, healthcare, education and social protection services; the status of the bill on the protection of internally displaced persons; measures other than the tax system to reduce disparities in wealth and income; steps to ensure gender parity in Government bodies; whether the State party had an implementation mechanism for recommendations issued to it by international bodies; how the State party linked climate adaptation policies with the land registration system to compensate people affected by natural disasters; how the State party could receive income from major emitters to fund climate adaptation plans; the ramifications of tax policies on economic, social and cultural rights; projects to strengthen anti-corruption bodies; and whether the State party trained judges and prosecutors on the Covenant.

    Responses by the Delegation

    The delegation said the National Commission on Indigenous Peoples was revising guidelines on the Indigenous Peoples’ Rights Act. The Commission had issued 272 approved ancestral domain titles to indigenous peoples.

    The national disaster risk reduction management framework addressed preparedness, rescue, response, recovery and rehabilitation. The State party conducted post-disaster needs assessments and tried to compensate for economic loss. A “digital locker” was being developed to allow citizens to store land titles, which would support reparation claims in cases of disasters.

    Discussions on the national action plan on business and human rights were in advanced stages. The State party sought to develop business and human rights policies that addressed specific issues related to children, indigenous peoples and environmental protection.

    The Government was interested in generating revenues from major emitters. It had developed a law that allocated resources to measuring loss and damage from climate change, which would help in this regard. The State party hosted the Loss and Damage Fund, and there were many international investments in environmental, social and governance projects in the Philippines.

    The Philippines had been recognised by the United Nations for its national recommendations tracking database. Judges were provided with training on the Covenant.

    Women parliamentary members had pushed for policies promoting women’s rights and inclusive governance. Community consultations and education programmes were in place to promote women’s participation in politics.

    The State party had proposed bills to amend taxes on passive income. It provided tax incentives to businesses that chose to operate outside of Manila.

    Questions by a Committee Expert

    SEREE NONTHASOOT, Committee Expert and Member of the Taskforce for the Philippines , expressed concerns about high levels of unemployment and informal employment in the Philippines. The informal sector provided livelihoods for about 60 per cent of the population, the majority of whom were female. What measures were in place to regularise the informal sector? The Committee was concerned about the quality of employment provided to persons with disabilities.

    What measures were in place to inspect sweatshops and to issue sanctions to employers who violated workers’ rights? What measures were in place to address workplace harassment and gender-based violence. Who was excluded from the social security system? It reportedly did not cover persons in street situations.

    There was significant variation between minimum wages in the capital and other regions. How did the State party support adequate living and working standards outside the capital? Did workers who were not paid minimum wages have access to a complaints mechanism? There had been a significant increase in child labour in the State party. How was this being addressed?

    The Committee was concerned by reports of red-tagging and killing of trade union workers. How was the Government promoting freedom of association? What was the role of relevant agencies in protecting trade union rights and the right to strike?

    Responses by the Delegation

    The delegation said the unemployment rate for 2023-2024 was 4.3 per cent. The rate quickly recovered after the pandemic. The State party had determined that less than 40 per cent of workers were in the informal sector. It was developing policy recommendations related to protecting the rights of informal sector workers and revising occupational safety and health standards to protect against accidents. The State was expanding opportunities for skills training and upskilling to help citizens increase their employability. There was a policy and regulatory framework in place to protect the rights of workers in the “gig economy”.

    The Government was encouraging investment outside of the capital. It conducted consultations and examined trends in real wages before setting regional minimum wages. Setting a standard minimum wage for the entire State would discourage businesses from investing in remote provinces.

    There was no State policy to attack human rights defenders. There were remedies to address violations of the right to life, and freedom of association and assembly. The Government rejected the word red-tagging due to the absence of such a policy.

    The “Reach Out” programme aimed to reach out to families in street situations, welcoming them in temporary shelters. Abandoned children were placed in foster families. Over 2,000 individuals had benefitted from the programme in 2023.

    The National Commission against Child Labour had inspected over 10,000 establishments in 2020, identifying violations of child labour laws. Many children identified as labourers were provided with educational materials and support. Family cash transfer programmes included seminars for parents which discouraged child labour. Parents who engaged their children in child labour could be taken off the programme.

    The Government was providing training for persons with disabilities to help them pass eligibility requirements for public sector jobs. It also conducted skills matching to help persons with disabilities access work in the private sector.

    Follow-Up Questions by Committee Experts

    Committee Experts asked follow-up questions on whether regional minimum wages were indexed and reviewed regularly; the role of the Government in protecting Filipino national migrant workers overseas; the number of labour inspections conducted annually; whether the Commission on Human Rights received complaints from workers; whether the State party would adopt policies mandating businesses to adopt diversity and inclusion regulations; plans to revise the Labour Code to remove barriers to forming and joining trade unions; and disaggregated data collected on persons not in employment, education or training.

    Responses by the Delegation

    The delegation said the Government considered regional poverty lines when setting provincial minimum wages. This was a starting wage, and the Government was supporting workers to receive higher wages.

    The State party had created a Department of Migrant Workers, which protected the rights of national migrant workers overseas. The Department was forming bilateral agreements with other countries to protect migrant workers from abuse. Several thousands of workers had been repatriated during the pandemic, many of whom had received assistance. Their children were provided with scholarships.

    Collecting data on persons not in employment, education or training was a goal of the Philippine Development Plan. There were special employment programmes for students and alternative learning systems in place to reduce the number of such persons.

    The State party had intensified efforts to identify and prevent child labour. More than 50,000 child labourers had been provided with necessary services and more than 30,000 child labourers had been removed from labour.

    The Philippines had several thousands of trade unions and workers’ associations with over four million members in total. The State engaged in dialogue with the International Labour Organization regarding incidents in which workers were killed or disappeared, and had adopted measures to prevent such incidents in the future. A committee had been formed to investigate these cases, and investigations into several cases had been concluded.

    In 2023, the State party had inspected more than 400,000 establishments to ensure they complied with health and safety standards.

    Questions by a Committee Expert

    LUDOVIC HENNEBEL, Committee Vice-Chair and Member of the Taskforce for the Philippines , asked about progress made in implementing recommendations from other treaty bodies on polygamy. What measures were in place to reform divorce procedures? 

    Had the State party received complaints regarding the violation of children’s rights during conflict or on the recruitment and use of children in armed conflict? What sanctions were imposed for persons who forced children to work? How was the State party preventing sexual and online exploitation of children, and supporting birth registration for children from indigenous and Muslim communities? What measures were in place to protect victims of rape and to repeal laws allowing perpetrators to avoid punishment by marrying victims?

    How did the State party promote equal access to civil unions for members of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex community and protect the bodily integrity of intersex persons?

    How were people in the informal sector supported to access housing? What measures were in place to prevent evictions? How did the State party promote access to health for vulnerable groups, to mental health care in rural areas, and to emergency contraception and post-abortion care? How did it promote education on sexual and reproductive health for rural and young people?

    Was the State party planning to decriminalise drugs for personal use and implement alternatives to imprisonment for drug users? What protection was in place to prevent stigmatisation and criminalisation of persons receiving treatment for drug addiction? What measures were in place to put an end to the “war on drugs” and to provide reparations to victims of the war?

    Responses by the Delegation

    The delegation said the Philippines recognised several types of contractual employment, including for work performed outside the employer’s facilities and independent contractors. These workers were able to file complaints with the Government in cases of violations of labour rights.

    A law on agrarian emancipation had freed 6,000 farmers from debt. The State was also implementing agricultural support programmes. The area under the Verde Island Passage would be declared as a protected area, and the State would allocate resources to protecting the area. The State’s Blue Economy Bill would mandate policies for managing marine and coastal resources. The State party had also enacted a law on seafarers’ rights.

    The natural disaster risk reduction and management act regulated support for persons displaced by natural disasters. Such persons could access State-funded shelters. The Government continued to provide support to persons displaced by the 2017 Marawi siege. The Marawi Compensation Board ensured tax-free compensation for housing and property lost during the siege. The State also provided livelihoods, healthcare and educational support for victims.

    The Executive Branch had been advocating for a law on freedom of information, which would be passed soon. A freedom of information programme had been established to grant public access to official, non-confidential documents of public concern. A witness protection programme was also in place. The Anti-Red Tape Authority promoted transparency in Government operations, while the Ombudsman acted on confidential complaints of corruption. Punitive actions for corruption offences were severe.

    In State law, polygamy was illegal, and bigamy was a criminal offence. However, Muslim men with financial ability and their wives’ permission could marry multiple wives under traditional law, which also mandated divorces.

    The Philippines advocated for the protection of children in armed conflict. It had ratified the Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child on the involvement of children in armed conflict. Members of the Armed Forces under the age of 18 did not take part in combat. When violations occurred, investigations were carried out. However, the New People’s Army continued to recruit children. There were over 500 documented cases of this terrorist group’s use of children. The Government continued to exert efforts to ensure that schools were not used to exploit children.

    The State was strengthening efforts to address adolescent pregnancy through the implementation of comprehensive sexuality education and referral networks to reproductive health facilities. Over 100 schools were implementing the education programme, and over 1.1 million leaners had participated. Behavioural change materials had also been developed for schools and health facilities.

    The Philippines remained a prime target for online sexual abuse of children. Legislation had been implemented in 2022 to penalise all forms of online abuse of children. State agencies were cooperating to identify perpetrators.

    The Government was collecting data on malnutrition and stunting. Stunting in children under five had decreased from 33 per cent in 2018 to 23 per cent in 2024.

    Housing had been declared as a national concern by the current Government. The national housing programme had provided an average of 35,000 social housing units per year in recent years. Around 75,000 housing units had been provided to persons living in areas vulnerable to natural disasters and to indigenous peoples.

    The Government was adopting a humanitarian approach to drug use and rehabilitation. The drug clearing project sought to take away drugs from the people and discourage people from using drugs. Rehabilitation support was provided to drug users. Over 60 per cent of regions had been declared “drug cleared”, and over 40 per cent “drug-free”.

    Follow-Up Questions by Committee Experts

    Committee Experts asked follow-up questions on the passage of the extrajudicial killing bill and its relationship with the State drug policy; whether police were prohibited from reporting drug-related deaths to the media; whether detentions of drug users were voluntary; how the State supported people with drug-use records, who were criminalised, to access the work market; issues with the coverage of social security and nutrition programmes; measures to expedite agrarian reform to address high levels of poverty among farmers; measures to protect small-scale fishers from large-scale fishing businesses; indicators to assess multi-dimensional poverty and inform policies to tackle poverty; measures to support and protect the children of overseas workers from domestic abuse; how the energy market was regulated to make access to energy affordable; the impact of the prohibition of abortion on maternal mortality rates and measures implemented to respond to treaty bodies’ recommendations on increasing access to pre- and post-natal care services; and measures to legalise abortion in cases where there was risk to the health of the mother.

    Responses by the Delegation

    The delegation said there were several programmes supporting children in their first 1,000 days of life, including conditional cash transfers. Health workers were provided with training on caring for newborns and there were pre- and post-natal care programmes in place.

    The Philippines was an early adopter of a multidimensional poverty index, which helped to identify areas in which increased support was needed. A community-based monitoring system had been set up to collect data on multidimensional poverty.

    The State party had observed that for families with mothers who migrated overseas, grandparents typically cared for children and family circles also provided support. The Government had instructed teachers on identifying evidence of domestic abuse. Migrant workers were required to develop financial plans before leaving the country. The reintegration programme was being strengthened to help returning migrant workers.

    The State had reached 100 per cent electrification of rural regions, and was now working to address pockets of households that did not have electricity, supporting their access to renewable energy.

    Maternal deaths had been steadily decreasing in recent years. The Government was continuing to strengthen maternal and newborn care programmes, including by upskilling birthing nurses and reducing unsafe abortions.

    The State party prevented commercial fishers from fishing in waters reserved for municipal fishers and spawning grounds. The Clean and Healthy Oceans Programme aimed to reduce illegal and unregulated fishing by improving compliance with regulations. Programmes were in place to develop aquatic parks to support small-scale fishers, who could also access support for livelihoods and fishing tools.

    Questions by a Committee Expert

    LAURA-MARIA CRACIUNEAN-TATU, Committee Chair and Member of the Taskforce for the Philippines , commended the State party on the constant increase in the budget allocated to education, which had reached 3.2 per cent of gross domestic product. However, this was well below the United Nations’ recommendation of at least four per cent of gross domestic product. Were there further plans to increase the education budget? The Philippines’ global ranking in terms of quality of education was in the bottom 25 of 172 nations, the lowest score in Asia. What measures were envisioned to increase access to quality education for all?

    The State party had put in place a five-year development plan for children with disabilities, which ended in 2019. What results were achieved by the plan and what measures were in place to address limited access to education for children with disabilities and indigenous children? In one region, 56 per cent of children were not attending school. What measures were in place to address this issue? What measures were in place to address the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on access to education? How was the national policy framework on schools as zones for peace implemented? Legislation had been implemented that discontinued mother tongue education for minority groups. What was the rationale behind the adoption of this law?

    There was increasing disparity in access to the internet across different regions. What measures were in place to improve access to the internet for poor households and regions?

    Responses by the Delegation 

    The delegation said that the Constitution mandated that education needed to be given priority in the budget. Overall spending on education amounted for around 5.5 per cent of gross domestic product. The State party had made kindergarten education compulsory and extended compulsory education by two years, and the curriculum had been revised recently to improve education quality. The Government was working to address the inadequate supply of textbooks and computers in schools through decentralisation. The Philippines had over 100 languages and it was difficult to develop learning materials in each of these languages. The State thus decided to discontinue mother tongue language instruction and standardise English as a medium of instruction from grade five.

    The State party was also working to address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on learning outcomes. Recently, legislation had been passed on remedial education. During the pandemic, the Government adopted learning continuity plans to support access to education through online and broadcast education.

    The Government had implemented many measures to manage culturally sensitive education in Muslim and indigenous communities. Education on peace and conflict resolution was being promoted, and the State party was working to repair schools damaged by conflicts. The Government promoted the concept of schools as zones of peace in conflict-affected areas such as Mindanao. Local governments and security forces contributed to protecting schools in peace zones from being used in military activities through measures such as school escorts. The Government continued to provide psychosocial support for children affected by armed conflict.

    The indigenous education programme promoted quality, culturally relevant education for indigenous peoples. It had been implemented in over 3,000 schools. Over 75 indigenous languages were used in instruction, and an additional 4,000 teachers, 95 per cent of whom were indigenous, had recently been hired to provide education to indigenous children.

    The Government was working to improve access to education and healthcare for children with disabilities. Legislation mandating inclusive education for children with disabilities had been adopted and disability support officers had been established in educational institutions.

    The State party had improved the policy and regulatory framework on internet access. The national fibre-optic cable network was being expanded to southern regions. The State party was collaborating with Starlink to allow southern provinces to access the internet via satellites. Telecommunications companies were provided with incentives to operate in the Philippines, and wi-fi access points were being set up in schools and public places.

    The State’s campaign against illegal drugs was now geared towards rehabilitation and reintegration of drug users. The House of Representatives had investigated extrajudicial killings occurring in the context of the war on drugs and the Government had decided to amend the Penal Code to increase penalties for extrajudicial killings.

    Follow-Up Questions by Committee Experts

    Committee Experts asked follow-up questions on how the State party promoted education in Spanish and Arabic; the results of the education programme on Islamic values; how the State party protected the expression of indigenous culture and indigenous cultural sites; whether indigenous leaders participated in creating policies impacting their communities; legal and administrative provisions to protect indigenous languages; the number of legal cases invoking economic, social and cultural rights in which reparations had been granted for violations; the role of the Commission of Human Rights in investigating complaints from workers and places of detention; how the State party would protect fishing zones for small-scale fishers; measures for reducing threats and attacks against human rights defenders; plans to decriminalise abortion; and measures to protect the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex community.

    Responses by the Delegation

    The delegation said there were schools in Mindanao that provided Arabic and Islamic education. Education in Spanish and Arabic was an option in mainstream schools. Four-year courses on Arabic teaching were provided in local universities.

    There was no legal framework on cultural misappropriation, but the Government was working to protect intellectual property rights by registering the cultural assets and expressions of indigenous peoples. Indigenous communities needed to be consulted regarding all projects and policies affecting them. Indigenous leaders were included in local development councils.

    Courts had cited the Covenant in decisions upholding standards of living and access to economic, social and cultural rights, including in cases in which remedies were granted for environmental harm caused by mining operations. There needed to be a new Charter governing the mandate of the Commission on Human Rights, which had traditionally focused on civil and political rights but was recently working to promote economic, social and cultural rights.

    Court cases were underway into violations of regulations on fishing zones by commercial fishers. The Government protected the rights of legitimate environmental defenders. Protection of the environment was included as a pillar of the national security policy.

    The State party had pivoted to a community-based approach to illegal drugs. Many drug users were treated in communities rather than in rehabilitation centres. Persons who participated in rehabilitation programmes were removed from criminal offender lists, but not drug user lists.

    The State party had not yet developed a comprehensive bill on the rights of internally displaced persons. Persons affected by the Marawi siege had been provided with access to water and electricity, and reconstruction efforts were ongoing in affected areas.

    The State had created a committee on lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex affairs, which was developing policies and programmes to promote equality and inclusion of the community. The Constitution and various State legislation prohibited discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity. The police had formulated a gender sensitivity programme to ensure protection of this community.

    Pre-natal checkups were provided free of charge in primary health facilities, and mobile clinics provided maternal health services in isolated areas. The Government, while maintaining the prohibition of abortion, had taken measures to ensure quality post-abortion care was provided without stigmatisation.

    Closing Remarks

    ASRAF ALLY CAUNHYE, Committee Expert and Country Rapporteur for the Philippines , said the dialogue had been fruitful and constructive, addressing a range of issues confronting the Philippines. Discussions had brought to light issues that needed to be addressed to strengthen the implementation of economic, social and cultural rights, and would inform the Committee’s concluding observations. Mr. Caunhye expressed thanks to all persons who had contributed to the dialogue.

    ROSEMARIE G. EDILLON, Undersecretary, Policy and Planning Group, National Economic and Development Authority of the Philippines and head of the delegation, thanked the Committee for the dialogue. The State party was united in its goal of advancing economic, social and cultural rights. The President had a clear vision for national development that focused on improving access to all economic, social and cultural rights. The State party would continue with actions that would create change and realise the economic, social and cultural rights of all citizens.

    LAURA-MARIA CRACIUNEAN-TATU, Committee Chair , thanked the delegation for participating in the dialogue and for providing comprehensive answers. In some instances, additional data would have been appreciated. Human rights mechanisms were not mutually exclusive; they all served to enhance protections of rights holders. The Committee thanked civil society organizations for submitting information to the Committee and called for further cooperation between civil society and the Government.

    __________

    Produced by the United Nations Information Service in Geneva for use of the media; 
    not an official record. English and French versions of our releases are different as they are the product of two separate coverage teams that work independently.

     

    CESCR25.006E

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI Europe: President Calviño’s interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung

    Source: European Investment Bank

    Interview by Matthias Kolb and Alexander Mühlauer (Süddeutschen Zeitung)

    Nadia Calviño is President of the European Investment Bank (EIB), the largest promotional bank in the world. On behalf of the EU Member States, it is tasked with ensuring stability through investments within and beyond the European Union. So it’s little wonder that the former Deputy Prime Minister of Spain would attend the 61st Munich Security Conference. Shortly before the event, Calviño visited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, signing investment agreements totalling around  €1 billion. Before beginning her interview with the Süddeutsche Zeitung, the 56-year-old wanted to get one thing straight, right from the start: Europe must realise that we are at a turning point in history.

    Something seems to have ruptured between the United States and the European Union. Trump is talking with Putin about the future of Ukraine, without the EU at the table. The US Secretary of Defense says that America will no longer guarantee security in Europe. And US Vice President J.D. Vance says the greatest risk for Europe is not Russia or China, but the alleged internal threat to freedom of expression. How shocked are you by this?

    Calviño: I’m not shocked, or even surprised. I was certain we would see a fundamental change in transatlantic relations. We Europeans need to remember where our strengths lie, stand up for our interests and defend the rules-based world order from which we have benefited so richly over the past 80 years. And the Americans even more so.

    Isn’t the new US government threatening to destroy this world order?

    I am convinced that good transatlantic relations are strategically important for both sides. We must work to create a new foundation for them. In such turbulent times, it is more important than ever for Europe to stand for stability and reliability – not just within our own borders, but also for the rest of the world. That Europe should do even more to uphold a rules-based world order is something I hear often from our partners across the globe.

    But again, do the United States pose a risk to the global order?

    It is in their interest to preserve the things that have made America great. Institutions like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund or the World Trade Organization, which we founded together. That’s one reason the US dollar is a global reserve currency. There are many win-win situations to be had from working together, and with Europe. But the most important thing is for us to accept that the world of tomorrow is very different from the world of yesterday.

    “We are at a turning point in history.”

    The European Investment Bank is the world’s largest promotional bank. As its president, what can you do to help Europe stand the test of time in this new world?

    We are at a crucial moment in history. And at a turning point in the geopolitical order. The future will depend on the decisions we make today, and every decision counts.

    What does that mean exactly?

    Since I joined the EIB as president in 2024, I have held talks with all 27 EU Member States and our European and international partners, but also with civil society and industry. For the first time, we have set out a clear Strategic Roadmap. 2024 was a record year for us, in which the EIB signed €89 billion in financing to strengthen Europe’s competitiveness and security. These funds will go, for example, to energy infrastructure and renewable projects, to new technologies like artificial intelligence or quantum computers, and to supporting the transport and automotive industries. In 2024, we invested a record amount in energy networks. We also doubled our support for security and defence – to €1 billion – and we expect to double it again in 2025.

    At the Munich Security Conference, we kept hearing the question of where Member States could get the many billions of euros they would need to invest in their armies, including under pressure from Trump. Are they all coming to you now?

    Ursula von der Leyen has already proposed relaxing the rules under the Stability Pact so that EU countries can finance their defence spending. Olaf Scholz has similar ideas. The EIB is not a defence ministry, but there is a lot we can do to help in this area. For example, if Member States want to renovate their roads and bridges to improve military mobility, we can fund that, just like we can fund protection of critical infrastructure like submarine cables, or investments in cybersecurity. We are doing this, and are exchanging with Europe’s finance and defence ministries and with industry.

    What is the EIB financing in Germany in this domain?

    We are currently looking into 14 specific projects across Europe. In 2021, for example, we granted the Munich-based drone startup Quantum Systems a loan of €10 million. Their products are now used by the Ukrainian military, and have both civilian and military applications, so they can be supported by the EIB. The Lithuanian government has just applied to us with a proposal that we are now evaluating. It seeks financial assistance to build the base for the new German army brigade in Rūdninkai, near the border with Belarus.

    Soon 5 000 German soldiers will be permanently stationed in Lithuania, as a deterrent to Russia. Cost projections by the German Defence Ministry for this brigade are over €10 billion. Lithuania would like to invest around €1 billion in the new base. How much money could come from the EIB?

    This is a very important and demanding project, and we’ve only just started looking into the details. Another good example is the EIB support for the expansion of the Danish port in Esbjerg. Going forward, it will be better able to accommodate NATO vessels and the transport of materials for offshore wind farms.

    You just came from a visit to Ukraine. How is the EIB supporting that country?

    The trip to Ukraine was my first one outside the EU as EIB President. We are probably Ukraine’s most important investment partner, and our role is one that our partners value greatly. During my visit, we signed agreements for investment totalling around €1 billion. They will allow major Ukrainian banks to grant more loans to medium-sized companies. And with the country’s government, we have signed packages to finance infrastructure for energy, transport, water and district heating, as well as the construction of bunkers in schools and nurseries. So we are actively investing in all of the important areas for the Ukrainian people to lead normal lives, as far as possible. And, of course, we aim to strengthen the country’s resilience.

    Are you also supporting Ukraine’s defence industry?

    We support the European security and defence industry, which also helps Ukraine. In 2024 we expanded the dual-use approach, so that we can now support a wide range of projects, such as border security, cybersecurity, satellites and drones, and mine clearance.

    The CEO of the Italian arms company Leonardo recently told our reporters that Europe has one main problem: Member States spend more and more money on defence, but don’t work together enough. Is he right?

    It is clear that a common European procurement system would make us stronger and more efficient, especially when it comes to our flagship projects. And yes, I think the European Investment Bank can contribute by acting as an independent appraiser for projects. In 2024, to bring in top expertise, we signed agreements with the NATO Innovation Fund and the European Defence Agency so that we can draw on their technical knowledge in this regard.

    Is there any dispute at the EIB due to differing positions on Ukraine, with member countries like Hungary or Slovakia that have pro-Moscow governments?

    No, not at all.

    “I would never presume to tell a Member State what to do.”

    So you are president of one of the only EU institutions that aren’t divided?

    I told you that I visited the 27 Member States, and listened very carefully to them. On that basis, we drew up our strategy, which was unanimously supported. We are therefore well aligned with the EU priorities and the expectations of the Member States. There is strong support for what we are doing. Including in Ukraine.

    When it comes to Europe’s future, one word always comes up: competitiveness. What does Europe need to do to avoid falling even further behind the US and China economically?

    The different reports, for example by Enrico Letta and Mario Draghi, are quite unanimous: We need market integration, streamlining and investment. So what we need to do is clear. And I think the new Commission is willing to go in that direction. On streamlining, for example, we have teamed up with the Commission to adapt environmental reporting standards so that we can pursue the Paris Agreement and our green transformation objectives in a way that promotes the competitiveness of European industry, as well as green finance and green investment.

    How optimistic are you that Europe will finally begin to react more quickly and actually make decisions? With the capital markets union, we’ve been waiting ten years for things to finally happen. And that’s just one example of many.

    As Spain’s Minister of Finance and its Deputy Prime Minister, I saw lots of things. The euro area crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic. And I have seen how Europe can succeed: Together, we developed the vaccines, and we dealt with the crisis. With the NextGenerationEU package, Spain has made some very far-reaching reforms and, thanks to mobilising investment, it is now the best-performing economy in Europe and a driver of growth and prosperity on the continent. We succeed when we unite, act decisively, truly focus and bring all our energy together.

    In contrast to Spain and other countries, Germany’s economy has been hit hard. Many experts see the debt brake as an obstacle to further growth. What does Germany have to do for things to start looking up again?

    I would never presume to tell a Member State what to do. I simply wish for a strong Germany with a stable, pro-Europe government – because we need a strong Germany at the centre of our union.

    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-OSI Economics: 3 ways to improve access to justice through court modernization

    Source: Microsoft

    Headline: 3 ways to improve access to justice through court modernization

    The legal maxim that “justice delayed is justice denied” has long been a rallying cry to encourage judges and courts to operate more efficiently. If legal redress or fair relief are potentially available to an injured party but aren’t promptly provided or supported, that is effectively no remedy at all. Today, the need for accessible and fair judicial systems is at least as relevant as when William Penn voiced it back in the seventeenth century. Fortunately, technology is playing a key role in helping to realize the vision and improve access to justice.

    Worldwide, courts are contending with growing pressures that threaten to bog down judicial processes and erode trust in the judiciary. Antiquated case management systems, critical data stuck in silos, and public demand for digital means of participating in justice contribute to the urgency to find new solutions that are cost-effective and adequately cyber-secure.

    Innovative courts are already busy modernizing systems and taking early steps with generative AI technologies. At Microsoft for government, we help courts and judicial organizations maintain trust within their communities through solutions that transform operations and help to increase fairness, accountability, and transparency. Let’s have a look at some important benefits of court modernization, including a new way for courts to experiment with AI innovation in a safe and productive fashion.

    Explore public safety and justice capabilities

    Better access to justice in 3 key areas

    The adoption of cloud technologies typically has an almost immediate impact in terms of power, scalability, and flexibility. Modernizing tools and systems can further deliver new capabilities that help improve access to justice. Among these:

    1. Streamline court operations

    Courts function better with a more empowered workforce, and modernization makes it possible to quickly realize significant gains in efficiency. For example, by simply adopting Microsoft 365 copilot, 70% of users surveyed across industries reported being more productive and able to focus more on high-value activities and creative work.1

    Even greater benefits are gained by cloud solutions that bring together vast stores of data. Courts are often supported by aging legacy systems that hold data in disconnected silos, making it difficult, if not impossible, to integrate it all. For example, the Orange County Superior Court (OCSC) managed three disparate case management systems (containing more than 70 million paper files), which created serious inefficiencies. So, they integrated it all into a single data warehouse on Microsoft Azure, and realized new benefits in decision making and improved operational efficiency, as well as setting the stage for greater innovation.

    Case management systems are especially being transformed by modernization. Courts are moving away from expensive, limited legacy systems to modern solutions that speed up case processing, help judges access necessary information faster, and even increase the capacity of caseloads. Cloud-based case management systems can also fundamentally change how people interact with courts. For example, the Alabama Appellate Courts System developed a hybrid cloud solution that allowed 6,000 Alabama licensed lawyers to access information and file motions with no need to physically travel to any of its three courts.

    2. Improve everyday access to justice

    Trust in the court is central to justice, but for many people, the cost and friction involved in legal proceedings is high and the results are not always satisfactory. Modernization can help ease the burden with new services and capabilities that are user friendly and engage the public.

    Remote access to court proceedings is a profound benefit of modernization, making it faster, easier, and less expensive for people to participate. Widely adopted during the pandemic, remote hearings with Microsoft Teams are now being enhanced with generative AI features that can do things like generate unofficial transcripts or session recaps.

    The Teams experience can also be expanded to provide additional services. For example, the Federal Regional Court of the 1st Region (TRF1) in Brazil improved access to the court with a new Virtual Support Desk—an integrated online service platform within Teams that offers easy access to important judicial services for people across Brazil. It also provides a personalized work hub for court service agents, giving them access to real-time engagement analytics, proactive notifications, and service governance indicators.

    Modernization is also helping people to better navigate the legal system. Easy to use digital tools can provide guidance in legal processes, assist with document preparation, and help find important resources. Virtual assistants and chatbots can help people understand legal terms, access case information, and represent themselves in litigation in areas such as family law. Translation and transcription capabilities can also be included to make these services even more accessible.

    3. Enhanced experiences through new services

    Innovation with generative AI and advanced cloud services is still evolving for courts, but the early benefits give us a glimpse of how significantly courts will be transformed in the months and years to come.

    Many of the benefits listed above will accelerate dramatically as more courts invest in modernization. For individuals, AI-enabled online portals and mobile applications will provide easier access to case information, explain options, and answer questions about legal processes—providing support that even court staff cannot always offer due to legal restrictions.

    For judges and court staff, modernization promises faster processing of cases, with solutions that speed up administrative tasks, reduce delays caused by paperwork errors, and improve the filing of legal documents. AI can automate the extraction, categorization, and organization of information from documents such as invoices, contracts, and emails.

    Generative AI is increasingly also being integrated into legal workflows to automate tasks like tagging and classification. This promises to advance a key industry initiative called SALI (Standards Advancement for the Legal Industry, in which Microsoft is a participant), that is creating a standardized way to define and document legal matters. By automating tagging and classification of documents (commonly done by hand), AI can help SALI achieve its mission to benefit legal professionals and their clients by fostering innovation and efficiency in legal workflows.

    A low risk way to explore AI innovation in the court

    Many courts are understandably cautious about involving their critical data and systems in innovation with new technology such as AI. That’s why Microsoft endorses an important new initiative called the AI Sandbox, by the National Center for State Courts (NCSC).

    The AI Sandbox helps leaders in judicial organizations explore generative AI and learn how it can improve productivity, efficiency, and citizen service. Designed to serve the needs of courts across geographies, the AI Sandbox lets judges and court staff experiment with generative AI in a secure private cloud environment built on Azure. It supports the development of use cases such as drafting court orders, creating job descriptions, providing legal information, and much more. Best of all, it’s easy to use via the NSCS portal (no travel required).

    To get started, visit the NCSC AI sandbox website.

    Advancing your modernization journey

    Whether it’s the AI Sandbox or early experimentation with Microsoft 365 Copilot, the path to modernization is unique for every court. There are some fundamental elements that every organization will eventually need in order to realize the complete benefits of AI:

    • A cloud platform like Azure delivers proven scalability, security, and compliance.
    • A data and AI platform like Microsoft Fabric provides a common way to reason over your data.
    • A development platform like Azure AI Foundry lets you build world-class AI-native applications.

    Improving access to justice through technology is a long-term journey, but one that delivers benefits early and often. It’s important to define your goals, take a strategic approach, and choose a technology partner who will be with you every step of the way.

    Learn more

    To see how Microsoft is empowering court systems to be more agile, secure, and accessible for all, watch our video. To learn more about how we can help in your court’s modernization journey, visit our website or get in touch with your Microsoft sales representative or technology partner.

    Explore Microsoft for public safety and justice

    1Microsoft Work Trend Index Special Report.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI: Marbanc International Expands Scope of Real Estate Focus to Australia

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    Photo Courtesy of Marbanc International

    NEW YORK, Feb. 19, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Marbanc International has broadened its distressed real estate acquisition strategy to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the Australian property and mortgage markets.

    A recent analysis by SQM Research revealed that the number of properties on the market for over 180 days has surged by 10.1% year-over-year, reaching 69,658 listings. Major urban centers – including Melbourne, Darwin, Canberra, and Hobart – experienced double-digit increases in long-term listings. Notably, Victoria saw a 28.4% spike in distressed sale listings, the highest among Australian states.

    Income Direct’s Strategic Expansion

    Marbanc’s wholly owned Australian subsidiary, Income Direct, has been actively sourcing and conducting due diligence on multiple real estate opportunities, including:

    • Distressed properties
    • Developable landholdings
    • Infrastructure sites

    Income Direct’s executive chairman, Gerard Sivaprasad, stated:

    The post-COVID economic climate has created compelling buying opportunities. Our investment committee is currently evaluating several large acreage sites with strong medium-to-long term value potential.

    Market Trends & Future Outlook

    Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research, noted that Victoria is the first Australian state where distressed property listings now exceed pre-pandemic levels.

    We can no longer consider this a benign trend in Victoria. While listings remain below pre-COVID levels, the sharp increase suggests more Melbourne property owners may be facing financial distress,” he said.

    Despite Australia’s Reserve Bank being expected to announce a reduction in official interest rates following its upcoming meeting, Marbanc anticipates continued activity in the distressed property sector and is positioned to capitalize on evolving market conditions.

    Contact Information:

    Contact Person: Gerard Sivaprasad
    Company: Marbanc International
    Website: https://marbanc.com/
    Email: gerards@incomedirect.com.au

    A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/8b859aad-60a3-4104-ad3d-5283c2e6c84c

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI USA: Subsidiary of Chinese State-Owned Entity to Pay $14.2M to Resolve False Claims Act Allegations Relating to Paycheck Protection Program Loan

    Source: US State of North Dakota

    YAPP USA Automotive Systems Inc., a corporation with its principal place of business in Michigan, has agreed to pay $14,208,496 to resolve allegations that it violated the False Claims Act by submitting false claims to obtain a Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan for which it was not eligible.

    Congress created the PPP in March 2020 to provide emergency financial assistance to Americans suffering from the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the PPP, eligible businesses could receive forgivable loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration (SBA). Regulations provide various eligibility requirements for the PPP, including limitations on the number of employees and exclusions for certain types of businesses, like those that are owned by government entities. In their loan applications, borrowers were required to certify that they were eligible for the PPP and that the information they provided was accurate.

    YAPP USA’s ultimate parent company is State Development and Investment Corp. Ltd, a company owned and controlled by the People’s Republic of China. Through common ownership and management, YAPP USA is affiliated with dozens of other companies worldwide. In applying for a first-draw PPP loan, YAPP USA represented that it was eligible for the PPP, and it received a first-draw PPP loan in the amount of $9,598,462, which the SBA later forgave. The United States alleged that YAPP USA was not eligible under the SBA rules for a PPP loan because YAPP USA, singly and together with its affiliates, employed more individuals than permitted by SBA’s size standard for its industry. The United States also contended that YAPP USA was not eligible because it is owned by a government entity. YAPP USA will pay $14,208,496 to the United States to resolve these allegations.

    YAPP USA cooperated with the United States’ investigation by identifying individuals involved in or responsible for the conduct and disclosing facts and documents gathered during YAPP USA’s own investigation. As a result, YAPP USA received credit under the department’s guidelines for taking disclosure, cooperation and remediation into account in False Claims Act cases.

    “PPP loans were intended to help small businesses in the United States,” said Deputy Assistant Attorney General Michael D. Granston of the Justice Department’s Civil Division. “The Department remains committed to pursuing those who violated the requirements of this taxpayer funded program.”

    “Congress and the SBA designed the PPP to help small businesses and their employees during the pandemic, not large companies owned by foreign governments,” said Acting U.S. Attorney Richard G. Frohling for the Eastern District of Wisconsin. “This settlement demonstrates that our office will continue to hold accountable those businesses and individuals who abused this vital program.”

    “The favorable settlement in this case is the product of enhanced efforts by federal agencies such as the SBA working with the Department of Justice, SBA’s Office of Inspector General, and other Federal law enforcement agencies, as well as private individuals who uncover fraudulent conduct to recover the product of this fraud as well as penalties,” said SBA General Counsel Wendell Davis.

    The civil settlement includes the resolution of claims brought under the qui tam or whistleblower provisions of the False Claims Act, which permit private parties to file an action on behalf of the United States and receive a portion of any recovery. The qui tam lawsuit was filed by GNGH2 Inc; GNGH2 Inc. will receive $1,420,849 in connection with this settlement.

    The resolution obtained in this matter was the result of a coordinated effort between the Justice Department’s Civil Division, Commercial Litigation Branch, Fraud Section, and the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Wisconsin, with assistance from the SBA’s Office of General Counsel and Office of the Inspector General.

    Trial Attorney Lindsey Roberts of the Justice Department’s Civil Division and Assistant U.S. Attorney Michael Carter for the Eastern District of Wisconsin handled the matter, with assistance from Christopher J. McClintock of the SBA.

    The claims resolved by the settlement are allegations only. There has been no determination of liability.

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Security: Subsidiary of Chinese State-Owned Entity to Pay $14.2M to Resolve False Claims Act Allegations Relating to Paycheck Protection Program Loan

    Source: United States Attorneys General

    YAPP USA Automotive Systems Inc., a corporation with its principal place of business in Michigan, has agreed to pay $14,208,496 to resolve allegations that it violated the False Claims Act by submitting false claims to obtain a Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loan for which it was not eligible.

    Congress created the PPP in March 2020 to provide emergency financial assistance to Americans suffering from the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the PPP, eligible businesses could receive forgivable loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration (SBA). Regulations provide various eligibility requirements for the PPP, including limitations on the number of employees and exclusions for certain types of businesses, like those that are owned by government entities. In their loan applications, borrowers were required to certify that they were eligible for the PPP and that the information they provided was accurate.

    YAPP USA’s ultimate parent company is State Development and Investment Corp. Ltd, a company owned and controlled by the People’s Republic of China. Through common ownership and management, YAPP USA is affiliated with dozens of other companies worldwide. In applying for a first-draw PPP loan, YAPP USA represented that it was eligible for the PPP, and it received a first-draw PPP loan in the amount of $9,598,462, which the SBA later forgave. The United States alleged that YAPP USA was not eligible under the SBA rules for a PPP loan because YAPP USA, singly and together with its affiliates, employed more individuals than permitted by SBA’s size standard for its industry. The United States also contended that YAPP USA was not eligible because it is owned by a government entity. YAPP USA will pay $14,208,496 to the United States to resolve these allegations.

    YAPP USA cooperated with the United States’ investigation by identifying individuals involved in or responsible for the conduct and disclosing facts and documents gathered during YAPP USA’s own investigation. As a result, YAPP USA received credit under the department’s guidelines for taking disclosure, cooperation and remediation into account in False Claims Act cases.

    “PPP loans were intended to help small businesses in the United States,” said Deputy Assistant Attorney General Michael D. Granston of the Justice Department’s Civil Division. “The Department remains committed to pursuing those who violated the requirements of this taxpayer funded program.”

    “Congress and the SBA designed the PPP to help small businesses and their employees during the pandemic, not large companies owned by foreign governments,” said Acting U.S. Attorney Richard G. Frohling for the Eastern District of Wisconsin. “This settlement demonstrates that our office will continue to hold accountable those businesses and individuals who abused this vital program.”

    “The favorable settlement in this case is the product of enhanced efforts by federal agencies such as the SBA working with the Department of Justice, SBA’s Office of Inspector General, and other Federal law enforcement agencies, as well as private individuals who uncover fraudulent conduct to recover the product of this fraud as well as penalties,” said SBA General Counsel Wendell Davis.

    The civil settlement includes the resolution of claims brought under the qui tam or whistleblower provisions of the False Claims Act, which permit private parties to file an action on behalf of the United States and receive a portion of any recovery. The qui tam lawsuit was filed by GNGH2 Inc; GNGH2 Inc. will receive $1,420,849 in connection with this settlement.

    The resolution obtained in this matter was the result of a coordinated effort between the Justice Department’s Civil Division, Commercial Litigation Branch, Fraud Section, and the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Wisconsin, with assistance from the SBA’s Office of General Counsel and Office of the Inspector General.

    Trial Attorney Lindsey Roberts of the Justice Department’s Civil Division and Assistant U.S. Attorney Michael Carter for the Eastern District of Wisconsin handled the matter, with assistance from Christopher J. McClintock of the SBA.

    The claims resolved by the settlement are allegations only. There has been no determination of liability.

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI Africa: 6 tips on how to run a company in turbulent times – lessons from emerging markets

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Felipe Monteiro, Senior Affiliate Professor of Strategy, INSEAD

    Global risks are rising, and many companies are struggling with how to adapt. The World Economic Forum’s 2025 Global Risks Report makes it clear that challenges like escalating global tensions and conflicts, climate change, economic instability and supply chain disruptions are interconnected and build on one another. And they’re here to stay.

    Meanwhile, US president Donald Trump’s tariff threats are creating more unpredictability in global trade.

    Companies – mostly medium sized and large companies – have no choice but to constantly adjust their strategies. For several companies in emerging markets, this way of thinking is second nature. Firms often operate in environments with fragile institutions, volatile currencies, unreliable infrastructure and political instability. They have become used to designing strategies with turbulence in mind.

    Instead of assuming every piece of global supply chains will fall into place as planned, and just-in-time strategies will always deliver, these companies have diversified and distributed their operations across multiple regions. They have been quick to build flexible, global supply chains, ensuring that if one part of the supply chain is disrupted, other regions can pick up the slack.

    While this may seem like common sense, many companies are still finding it difficult to reorganise and adapt to a less predictable and reliable world.

    So, how can companies look to build resilience and operate in uncertainty? By taking inspiration from those that have long navigated instability.

    Over the past 17 years of teaching global strategic management, I’ve developed and taught case studies on numerous companies in developing countries that have successfully adapted and reworked their strategies in times of uncertainty. Many of these examples – from Embraer in Brazil, to Haier in China – are featured in my book, Global Strategic Management (Fifth Edition), with more to come in the upcoming sixth edition.

    Based on these insights, I explore six key lessons companies can learn from firms in emerging markets.

    Six ways resilient firms adapt to disruption

    1. Learn, humbly, and adapt at lightning speed.

    Companies in emerging markets have always had to be more adaptable. They are fast learners and quick to pivot, starting from the understanding that things may not always go as planned. As a result, they design their operations to be resilient from the start. They anticipate disruptions rather than wait for them to happen.

    A classic example of this is M-Pesa. The mobile payments platform was first launched in Kenya in 2007. Initially it aimed to provide microloans to people without bank accounts. However, when users began using it for money transfers and bill payments, the company quickly adapted to meet this new demand. This ability to learn fast and change direction helped M-Pesa become a leader in mobile payments. It now serves as a global benchmark for success in the industry.

    Humility is essential for this kind of swift and effective adaptation. Companies that often face tough, unpredictable conditions tend to approach challenges with a humble mindset. Instead of assuming they have all the answers, they remain open to learning and adjusting.

    2. Lean on local partnerships.

    When entering unfamiliar or unpredictable markets, firms often approach operations with a transactional mindset – focusing on short-term, one-off exchanges – rather than forming deep partnerships with local stakeholders. This limits their ability to understand and deal with political or social disruptions.

    Natura & Co, the Brazilian cosmetics giant, offers helpful lessons. It has long focused on localising production and sourcing materials from nearby suppliers. Its focus is in the Amazon region, where it works with local communities to sustainably harvest raw materials like açaí (purple berries from South American palm trees) and Brazil nut oil. This approach:

    • reduces reliance on distant sources

    • increases flexibility, allowing the company to quickly adapt to regional challenges

    • builds trust which in turn stabilises supply chains and helps firms gain on-the-ground intelligence.

    3. Make room for redundant infrastructure.

    Firms often delay investments in redundant infrastructure until after a crisis exposes vulnerabilities. For instance, firms may rely on a single data centre or power grid, assuming infrastructure reliability.

    For companies like MTN Group, a telecommunications giant based in South Africa, redundancy is a necessity, not a luxury. Investing in backup power solutions and alternative communication links is essential to ensure MTN can maintain services during frequent power outages.

    In critical sectors like telecommunications and technology, parallel networks, alternative energy sources and backup systems ensure uninterrupted operations in the face of infrastructure failures, climate risks or other unforeseen disturbances.

    4. In unstable environments, build your own stability.

    In unpredictable markets, companies have to take matters into their own hands to ensure their operations run smoothly. They fill “institutional voids” common in such markets by forming diversified business groups. These provide critical support, such as internal financing, talent development and logistical infrastructure, to work around the challenges of their operating environments.

    The Tata Group, which operates across multiple industries from steel to software, is perhaps the most prominent example of this.

    Another great example is MercadoLibre, Latin America’s leading e-commerce platform, which faced the challenge of fragmented transport networks that made 24- or 48-hour deliveries near impossible. The only way to improve delivery speed was for the company to build its own logistics network. By doing so, it gained greater control over its supply chain, improved its ability to scale and greatly improved delivery reliability.

    5. Localise production, sustainably.

    Localised production reduces reliance on complex, long-distance global supply chains and helps minimise the environmental impact of transportation. When production and sourcing are local, companies are able to cut emissions and are less vulnerable to external shocks, as they are not reliant on the smooth functioning of distant suppliers or transport routes.

    Dilmah Tea took this hands-on approach by owning tea gardens, factories and packaging facilities in Sri Lanka. The company controls every step of the process, ensuring high-quality, single-origin Ceylon tea while cutting costs and emissions.

    This localised approach minimises dependence on external suppliers, protecting them from problems that can arise in global supply chains, like delays or shortages.

    6. Empower employees to be agile and responsive to change.

    Giving employees greater responsibility can make a big difference in how well a company handles unexpected changes. Chinese home appliances and electronics company Haier took this to the next level by famously transforming into an organisation of thousands of micro-enterprises, each responsible for decision-making, resource management and profit generation.

    This decentralised approach allows teams to swiftly adapt their strategies when disruptions arise. For instance, during the COVID pandemic, Haier maintained operational efficiency by enabling employees at local and product levels to make rapid, informed decisions.

    By staying close to users and gathering constant feedback, Haier’s micro-enterprises are able to anticipate potential disruptions before they become major threats and develop products and services that satisfy evolving needs.

    While it might not always be possible to completely shift power to individual teams, when people have the freedom to make decisions and take ownership of their work, they can respond quickly to new challenges and come up with creative solutions.

    Anticipation and adaptation

    The challenges that seem new and overwhelming are simply part of the daily reality for those in emerging economies. For decades, companies in these regions have been anticipating and adapting. As risks grow and intertwine, companies can learn from the resilience built by businesses in emerging markets.

    It all begins with a shift in mindset – recognising these challenges as the new reality and accelerating our own pace of learning and adaptation accordingly.

    – 6 tips on how to run a company in turbulent times – lessons from emerging markets
    – https://theconversation.com/6-tips-on-how-to-run-a-company-in-turbulent-times-lessons-from-emerging-markets-248914

    MIL OSI Africa

  • MIL-OSI Global: 6 tips on how to run a company in turbulent times – lessons from emerging markets

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Felipe Monteiro, Senior Affiliate Professor of Strategy, INSEAD

    Global risks are rising, and many companies are struggling with how to adapt. The World Economic Forum’s 2025 Global Risks Report makes it clear that challenges like escalating global tensions and conflicts, climate change, economic instability and supply chain disruptions are interconnected and build on one another. And they’re here to stay.

    Meanwhile, US president Donald Trump’s tariff threats are creating more unpredictability in global trade.

    Companies – mostly medium sized and large companies – have no choice but to constantly adjust their strategies. For several companies in emerging markets, this way of thinking is second nature. Firms often operate in environments with fragile institutions, volatile currencies, unreliable infrastructure and political instability. They have become used to designing strategies with turbulence in mind.

    Instead of assuming every piece of global supply chains will fall into place as planned, and just-in-time strategies will always deliver, these companies have diversified and distributed their operations across multiple regions. They have been quick to build flexible, global supply chains, ensuring that if one part of the supply chain is disrupted, other regions can pick up the slack.

    While this may seem like common sense, many companies are still finding it difficult to reorganise and adapt to a less predictable and reliable world.

    So, how can companies look to build resilience and operate in uncertainty? By taking inspiration from those that have long navigated instability.

    Over the past 17 years of teaching global strategic management, I’ve developed and taught case studies on numerous companies in developing countries that have successfully adapted and reworked their strategies in times of uncertainty. Many of these examples – from Embraer in Brazil, to Haier in China – are featured in my book, Global Strategic Management (Fifth Edition), with more to come in the upcoming sixth edition.

    Based on these insights, I explore six key lessons companies can learn from firms in emerging markets.

    Six ways resilient firms adapt to disruption

    1. Learn, humbly, and adapt at lightning speed.

    Companies in emerging markets have always had to be more adaptable. They are fast learners and quick to pivot, starting from the understanding that things may not always go as planned. As a result, they design their operations to be resilient from the start. They anticipate disruptions rather than wait for them to happen.

    A classic example of this is M-Pesa. The mobile payments platform was first launched in Kenya in 2007. Initially it aimed to provide microloans to people without bank accounts. However, when users began using it for money transfers and bill payments, the company quickly adapted to meet this new demand. This ability to learn fast and change direction helped M-Pesa become a leader in mobile payments. It now serves as a global benchmark for success in the industry.

    Humility is essential for this kind of swift and effective adaptation. Companies that often face tough, unpredictable conditions tend to approach challenges with a humble mindset. Instead of assuming they have all the answers, they remain open to learning and adjusting.

    2. Lean on local partnerships.

    When entering unfamiliar or unpredictable markets, firms often approach operations with a transactional mindset – focusing on short-term, one-off exchanges – rather than forming deep partnerships with local stakeholders. This limits their ability to understand and deal with political or social disruptions.

    Natura & Co, the Brazilian cosmetics giant, offers helpful lessons. It has long focused on localising production and sourcing materials from nearby suppliers. Its focus is in the Amazon region, where it works with local communities to sustainably harvest raw materials like açaí (purple berries from South American palm trees) and Brazil nut oil. This approach:

    • reduces reliance on distant sources

    • increases flexibility, allowing the company to quickly adapt to regional challenges

    • builds trust which in turn stabilises supply chains and helps firms gain on-the-ground intelligence.

    3. Make room for redundant infrastructure.

    Firms often delay investments in redundant infrastructure until after a crisis exposes vulnerabilities. For instance, firms may rely on a single data centre or power grid, assuming infrastructure reliability.

    For companies like MTN Group, a telecommunications giant based in South Africa, redundancy is a necessity, not a luxury. Investing in backup power solutions and alternative communication links is essential to ensure MTN can maintain services during frequent power outages.

    In critical sectors like telecommunications and technology, parallel networks, alternative energy sources and backup systems ensure uninterrupted operations in the face of infrastructure failures, climate risks or other unforeseen disturbances.

    4. In unstable environments, build your own stability.

    In unpredictable markets, companies have to take matters into their own hands to ensure their operations run smoothly. They fill “institutional voids” common in such markets by forming diversified business groups. These provide critical support, such as internal financing, talent development and logistical infrastructure, to work around the challenges of their operating environments.

    The Tata Group, which operates across multiple industries from steel to software, is perhaps the most prominent example of this.

    Another great example is MercadoLibre, Latin America’s leading e-commerce platform, which faced the challenge of fragmented transport networks that made 24- or 48-hour deliveries near impossible. The only way to improve delivery speed was for the company to build its own logistics network. By doing so, it gained greater control over its supply chain, improved its ability to scale and greatly improved delivery reliability.

    5. Localise production, sustainably.

    Localised production reduces reliance on complex, long-distance global supply chains and helps minimise the environmental impact of transportation. When production and sourcing are local, companies are able to cut emissions and are less vulnerable to external shocks, as they are not reliant on the smooth functioning of distant suppliers or transport routes.

    Dilmah Tea took this hands-on approach by owning tea gardens, factories and packaging facilities in Sri Lanka. The company controls every step of the process, ensuring high-quality, single-origin Ceylon tea while cutting costs and emissions.

    This localised approach minimises dependence on external suppliers, protecting them from problems that can arise in global supply chains, like delays or shortages.

    6. Empower employees to be agile and responsive to change.

    Giving employees greater responsibility can make a big difference in how well a company handles unexpected changes. Chinese home appliances and electronics company Haier took this to the next level by famously transforming into an organisation of thousands of micro-enterprises, each responsible for decision-making, resource management and profit generation.

    This decentralised approach allows teams to swiftly adapt their strategies when disruptions arise. For instance, during the COVID pandemic, Haier maintained operational efficiency by enabling employees at local and product levels to make rapid, informed decisions.

    By staying close to users and gathering constant feedback, Haier’s micro-enterprises are able to anticipate potential disruptions before they become major threats and develop products and services that satisfy evolving needs.

    While it might not always be possible to completely shift power to individual teams, when people have the freedom to make decisions and take ownership of their work, they can respond quickly to new challenges and come up with creative solutions.

    Anticipation and adaptation

    The challenges that seem new and overwhelming are simply part of the daily reality for those in emerging economies. For decades, companies in these regions have been anticipating and adapting. As risks grow and intertwine, companies can learn from the resilience built by businesses in emerging markets.

    It all begins with a shift in mindset – recognising these challenges as the new reality and accelerating our own pace of learning and adaptation accordingly.

    Felipe Monteiro does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. 6 tips on how to run a company in turbulent times – lessons from emerging markets – https://theconversation.com/6-tips-on-how-to-run-a-company-in-turbulent-times-lessons-from-emerging-markets-248914

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI: Dinewise, Inc. (DWIS) Releases Corporate Update for 2025

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    Discussion of New Initiatives and Plans for the Future

    ATLANTA, GA, Feb. 19, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Dinewise, Inc (OTC PINK-DWIS) (referred to as “Dinewise”, “we”, “us”, “our” or the “Company”) a fintech company operating as PawnTrust Inc., providing solutions to the pawn shop industry today announces its corporate update for Q1/2025.

    The PawnTrust Marketplace

    The development team is in the testing phase of the PawnTrust Marketplace, which is expected to go live in April 2025. Management is focused on creating the first-ever pawn partner network, seamlessly integrating pawn shop inventory onto the PawnTrust platform. This initiative will allow local pawn shops to display their inventory nationally overnight, significantly increasing their exposure. PawnTrust will leverage its marketing expertise and financial strength to drive additional engagement for its Pawn Partner network. With nearly 11,000 pawn shops nationwide, the company aims to onboard 10% of them initially. The platform integrates Artificial Intelligence (AI) to enhance sales through AI-driven descriptive tags and a context-based search function. This user-friendly interface ensures an immersive and engaging shopping experience, ultimately improving customer satisfaction and driving sales growth. AI remains a key component in the company’s strategy to stay competitive and compliant in the evolving financial industry.

    TitlePal Acquisition

    PawnTrust is in the final stages of negotiations to acquire TitlePal, a fintech company that has developed an innovative online solution for Title Pawn transactions The Company expects to finalize the acquisition in early Q1 2025. TitlePal is actively processing loans and has successfully tested its online platform with favorable results. This acquisition will enable TitlePal to expand into Alabama, Texas, and Mississippi, effectively doubling its receivable base by year-end. The platform has streamlined the title loan process to a 30-minute online transaction, significantly reducing the time typically required in traditional methods.

    Registration Statement & Compliance

    The company is finalizing its 2023 and 2024 audits and expects to file its registration statement by April 2025. As part of its growth strategy, Dinewise has identified board members with the necessary expertise to facilitate market penetration. Additionally, the company is in discussions with regulators to implement both a name and ticker symbol change. Dinewise remains current in its filings and is committed to maintaining transparency with its shareholder base.

    CEO Corner

    To reinforce its commitment to transparency, the company has launched “CEO Corner,” a weekly update from CEO Michael Farr on the company’s YouTube channel (@PawnTrust). Initially scheduled for February 7, the first episode will now premiere on February 28, following a decision to enhance production quality through a partnership with Bellamar Pictures; an Atlanta-based film company. This exclusive agreement ensures professional-grade production that aligns with PawnTrust’s commitment to excellence.

    “When I accepted the role of Chief Executive Officer, my goal was to build a strong and enduring foundation. We have been diligently reinforcing the core of this company. When our investors assess our progress, they will recognize a company built on stability, capable of navigating any challenge with confidence,” Michael Farr, CEO.

    About PawnTrust

    PawnTrust is an exclusively tailored marketplace for the estimated 11,000 pawn shops nationwide. The online marketplace (www.pawntrust.com) digitizes the inventory using advanced image recognition algorithms to automate item descriptions of the participating pawn shops and markets them on a national scale. The marketplace contains cutting-edge technology that streamlines the borrowing, buying, and bartering transactions typically found at a pawn shop. The platform plans to leverage Artificial Intelligence (AI) to optimize pricing, reduce fraud, and create personalized search recommendations to enhance the customer’s experience. These enhancements let consumers experience a frictionless shopping experience on their mobile app that gives them instant access to this nationwide inventory of pawn shops. Not only does this provide a more efficient way for consumers to shop, eliminating the need to visit multiple stores, but it also amplifies the reach of individual pawn shop owners. By joining the PawnTrust- ‘Pawn Partners’ network, shop owners gain access to a broader audience, enhancing their visibility and sales opportunities. This innovative approach aligns customer convenience with business growth, reshaping how people interact with the pawn industry. Consumers that purchase items outside of their local area will have their items conveniently shipped to them. As the intermediary in each transaction, PawnTrust earns a fee on every item sold in the marketplace. Many of these local pawn shops lack an online presence or the capital to market their inventory on a national scale. By bridging this gap, PawnTrust opens up opportunities for incremental sales from a wider buying base, effectively transforming the pawn shop and micro-lending industries. This model not only supports local businesses but also extends their reach, driving growth and innovation within the market.” 

    Forward-Looking Information

    This release includes statements that may constitute ”forward-looking” statements, usually containing the words ”believe,” ”estimate,” ”project,” ”expect” or similar expressions. These statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. While the Company believes the expectations reflected in forward-looking statements are reasonable, there can be no assurances such expectations will prove to be accurate. Security holders are cautioned such forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties. Certain factors may cause results to differ materially from those anticipated by the forward-looking statements made in this release. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, acceptance of the Company’s current and future products and services in the marketplace, the ability of the Company to develop effective new products and receive regulatory approvals of such products, competitive factors, dependence upon third-party vendors, risks and uncertainties related to the current unknown duration and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic and other risks detailed in the Company’s periodic report filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. By making these forward-looking statements, the Company undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this release.

    Investor Relations:
    Resources Unlimited
    718-269-3366
    mike@resourcesunlimitedllc.com

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI Russia: “The rule of six handshakes is followed in social media”

    Translartion. Region: Russians Fedetion –

    Source: State University Higher School of Economics – State University Higher School of Economics –

    Ivan Samoylenko studies graph theory and in his third year he came up with an idea that formed the basis of a scientific article with a very high citation rate in the media. In an interview with the Young Scientists of the HSE project, he spoke about the Watts-Strogatz small world model, singing in the children’s choir of the Bolshoi Theater, and choosing between science and industry.

    How I got into science

    I am a graduate of the specialized mathematics school #57 in Moscow. I attended math clubs there since high school, and in the 9th grade I transferred to a specialized math class. I got acquainted with some mathematical disciplines at a fairly serious level there. At that time, my attention was drawn to graphs – perhaps because many life questions are clearly formulated in their language. After school, I entered the mathematics department of the Higher School of Economics and am currently mainly engaged in graph theory.

    At HSE, I work in two laboratories. In the International Laboratory of Game Theory and Decision Making at HSE in St. Petersburg, I study applications of graphs to game-theoretic problems. And at the Faculty of Mathematics, we created the Scientific and Educational Laboratory of Complex Networks, Hypergraphs, and Their Applications. There, as you can tell from the name of the laboratory, I study both graphs and their generalized version — hypergraphs. And not only from the point of view of theory, but also from the point of view of the possible application of these structures to solving problems from a wide variety of areas — biology, medicine, data analysis, etc.

    What is a graph

    For clarity, a graph can be represented as a set of points (vertices) connected by lines (edges). The main feature of graph theory is that almost any system can be represented as a set of objects and some interactions between them. For example, when a journalist interviews me, this is also a graph, and a directed one at that. But in this particular example, it is not very clear why the graph is needed – it does not provide any new information about what is happening. However, if many different journalists interview different scientists, with the help of graph theory, you can compare the structural characteristics of the vertices (people) and make unobvious (at first glance) general conclusions.

    About the history of graph theory

    The father of graph theory is considered to be the mathematician Leonard Euler, who published a solution to the problem of the Königsberg bridges in 1736. He proved that it is impossible to cross all seven Königsberg bridges without crossing any of them twice and return to the starting point. Later, with the development of technology and the emergence of large data sets, graph theory increasingly occupied the minds of mathematicians and was embodied in various fields of knowledge.

    Another famous graph problem is the four-color conjecture, the assertion that any map on a plane can be correctly colored in no more than four colors. Although the problem is formulated in a language understandable even to a schoolchild and is easily illustrated with understandable pictures, it took humanity more than 100 years to solve it. And when in 1976 a solution was found (by the way, not at all simple: one of the steps of this solution is to try out almost 2000 options), an important break in the history of all mathematics occurred: this was the first theorem completely proven with the help of a computer.

    In general, major breakthroughs and milestones in the history of graph theory are inextricably linked with the development of information technology. Thus, graph theory gained particular popularity with the emergence of a clear example of a very large irregular (which cannot be fully described by a small set of rules) graph — the Internet. In general, the emergence of the Internet led to the emergence of a major branch of graph theory — the theory of complex networks.

    The two major modern works in complex network theory are papers describing the mechanisms by which complex networks emerge in the real world: the Watts-Strogatz small-world model and the Barabasi-Albert preferential attachment model. These papers have a great many citations, which is rare in mathematics. The Watts-Strogatz model is even in the top 100 most cited scientific papers of all time.

    When large amounts of data appear, it is interesting to identify structural patterns. And now there is a lot of data, you can build informative graph systems in almost any area. For example, I saw a study on how the graph of interactions of British composers of the 20th century is structured. By calculating the characteristics of this graph, for example, some centralities, you can draw a conclusion about which specific composers were structurally important for the development of British music. And from different points of view: someone as an independent actor or founder of a school, and someone as a link, allowing more successful colleagues to interact with each other.

    In general, in the language of graph theory, one can formulate models – probabilistic, game-theoretic – and prove their properties with strict mathematical theorems. So this is both an applied and fundamental area of mathematics.

    What I am proud of

    I came up with a game-theoretic model that describes why the social networks we see in the real world follow the six-handshake rule. It has been described before why there should be relatively few handshakes, but I was able to show where the magic number 6 comes from. A paper about this, based on my bachelor’s thesis, was published in Physical Review X in 2023.

    In the language of graph theory, it is easy to formulate what a social network is. The vertices are people, and the relationships between them (for example, acquaintance or friendship) are edges. In this context, the six-handshake rule can be thought of as follows: if we take two random people registered in a social network, then with a probability close to one, the path from one to the other along the “friend” edges will be no longer than six steps.

    The Watts and Strogatz paper that I mentioned proposed a random graph model in which a similar phenomenon could be observed. And I came up with a model that, on the one hand, somehow justified why this model was reasonable, and on the other hand, theoretically proved that if it so happened that we had two people in the system who were more than six handshakes apart, then such a system would not be very stable under sufficiently weak constraints.

    It was fortunate that our article came out 25 years after Watts and Strogatz’s article. And Strogatz himself wrote about our article on his social networks. He is quite a media person, so such a mention greatly promoted our article; at some point, journalists from different countries even wrote to me to get comments. As a result, according to my calculations, according to the altmetrics indicator, which is responsible for mentions in the world media and social networks, among articles where the first author has affiliation with the HSE, mine is the most mentioned.

    How I Got Published in a Top-Rated Magazine

    Getting published in high-ranking journals is a separate art (or rather, a craft). Even if you are a young genius, but do not know how to write articles, present material in a format acceptable for your domain, then you most likely will not publish anything in serious journals.

    Our article, published in the journal, consists of two parts. This is the main, “selling” part, which should be read by a completely non-technical person, and the additional part, which provides technical details and detailed evidence. As the author of the concept and idea, I wrote almost all the additional material (with detailed evidence), while a team of several leading scientists worked on the first part. First of all, Stefano Bocaletti, who was introduced to me by my supervisor in the graduate school of MIPT, Andrei Mikhailovich Raigorodsky, made a significant contribution to the release of this publication.

    He was the first person who was able to read my drafts and believed in the concept I proposed (it should be noted that in 2021, when I started writing this work, there were no good LLM chats yet, and my English was so bad that even at local competitions of the Faculty of Mathematics my work did not take prizes; then I accidentally found out that one of the reasons was the inability to read it normally).

    Then Stefano, for some time, invited his friends, also very strong network scientists, to join our team so that they could help us illuminate and explore our problem: what experiments to conduct, where to place emphasis so that the work could be published in a major interdisciplinary journal. And everything worked out: our article has a fairly good citation rate both in the media and in other scientific publications. So it’s one thing to discover a phenomenon, and quite another to successfully convey your results to the scientific community. Moreover, the criteria for an interesting publication are different for different domains. For example, I know that my fellow economists from the Game Theory Laboratory did not really like the format of my work. I have yet to master writing good economic articles.

    On the lack of time, but not ideas

    I keep a document with tasks that can be done and where minimal progress has been made. There are more than 20 of them. There is no shortage of ideas, there is a shortage of time, and sometimes there is a shortage of workers.

    With semi-applied ideas, it is often unclear in advance whether they are good or not; this can only be determined by conducting an experiment. In theory, it sometimes happens that you come up with something — and it is immediately clear that it is a good idea. Even its refutation can be informative and interesting. In the context of applied methods, everything is different: if something does not work, it is no longer so interesting. But on the other hand, if you know the result in advance, then what kind of science is it? You research, and if something works out — that’s great.

    What I dream about

    I would like young Russian scientists to have an easier life. So that they could not only survive, doing exclusively or mainly science. The presence of specialized specialists who have the opportunity to fully devote their time to research is critically important from the point of view of the development of science and technology. To explain my understanding of the problem, I would like to give an example from game theory. There is such a concept as a “rational agent”. Let’s say a young man (or woman) as a rational agent chooses where to go to work. In theory, if in science, there will be less money, but the work will be more free. If in industry, vice versa. Such a trade-off with clear alternatives: for each person, you can figuratively imagine a payoff function depending on these two factors, and each chooses one of the two paths depending on which factor is more important for the person.

    However, this model is relevant only if the economic difference is not too big. In practice (this is not only our problem, but in Russia it is felt especially acutely) the gap is colossal. In some situations it is more reasonable and simpler to go to work in a corporation, and in your free time to get together with friends and discuss science, and some people do just that.

    Another important issue is time constraints. Many scientific projects/grants/programs are very heavy and unwieldy from a bureaucratic point of view. The project setup activities may begin when a student, say, has just entered a master’s program, and the launch — when he or she is already finishing the last pages of his or her diploma.

    In such conditions, a young scientist will have to look for part-time work/other jobs, be in a state of constant uncertainty, which leads to constant stress. So many, even among those who are really interested in a scientific career, cannot cope and simply leave science. If we attract young scientists and administrative personnel (in my understanding, a scientist should not be busy writing papers, he should be engaged in science, if he does not have additional paid administrative duties) on more market-based terms, it seems to me that much more interesting and breakthrough work could be done.

    If I hadn’t become a mathematician

    The simplest answer is that I would go into IT, because that’s how I make money. But, in principle, I could become anyone, mathematics is not about theorems, but rather about a way of thinking. I don’t know who I could become. I could even do music, I even sang in the children’s choir of the Bolshoi Theater. Many opera productions have parts where children sing, and opera houses have children’s choirs.

    So that there is no feeling that I am Luciano Pavarotti, I should clarify that it is easier for boys to get into the Bolshoi Choir. The Bolshoi Children’s Choir consisted (at least when I was there) mainly of girls, and any boy there is a great success; there are fewer of them in music in general, and in early adolescence many leave because of voice failure. We had a situation when three people stopped taking part in performances at once. Because when two boys almost six feet tall and a third, also quite a large fellow with the nickname Horse stand next to a soloist shorter than them by a head and a half and have to portray small children, a noticeable dissonance arises.

    What I was interested in at school

    I was interested in history. I was even closer to the final stage of the All-Russian in history than in mathematics. I also played a lot of “What? Where? When?” and continued to do so as a student, although a little less actively. Now, unfortunately, I have almost no time for this: I have to work in industry, do science, and I also have a social and organizational load in the laboratories where I work.

    Who would I like to meet?

    With John Conway. I have a close relationship with his attitude to mathematics: he saw it in various everyday things, and although he became famous mainly for the game “Life”, he was in fact an amazingly versatile scientist with a large number of important works in various areas of mathematics. I was very upset when I read the news of his death at the very beginning of the covid pandemic. It would also be interesting to talk to mathematicians from the golden age of the Faculty of Mechanics and Mathematics – for example, Andrey Kolmogorov, the author of the axiomatics of probability theory.

    What are my hobbies besides science?

    I am a curious person and try to get acquainted with different things, to find out what is happening in the world. Sometimes I watch history channels, sometimes I can watch something about football or a strange documentary. In general, almost any information is interesting to me. But all this is irregular. I work systematically, slept – good, did not sleep – well, what to do.

    Advice to young scientists

    Think carefully about choosing your future track. I can also wish you patience and strength, mental and physical – you will definitely need it.

    Favorite place in Moscow

    I really like Moscow as a whole. I’ve been to different cities and I can’t say that even one of them is close to Moscow in terms of comfort (I have a certain sense of being a Muscovite, of course). If I have to name a specific place, I can simply say that I love the Moscow metro – it’s very practical (and at the old stations, it’s also aesthetically pleasing).

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI: Compass Diversified Director James Bottiglieri Announces Retirement

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    WESTPORT, Conn., Feb. 19, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Compass Diversified Holdings (NYSE: CODI) (“CODI” or the “Company”), an owner of leading middle market businesses, announced today that current director James J. Bottiglieri (“Jim”) advised the Board of Directors (the “Board”) on February 14, 2025 that he plans to retire prior to the Company’s 2025 annual shareholders meeting (the “2025 Annual Meeting”). Mr. Bottiglieri will remain on the Company’s Board and as a member of each of the Company’s Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee and Audit Committee up and until the Company’s 2025 Annual Meeting. Mr. Bottiglieri joined the Board in December of 2005. He served as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer and as an Executive Vice President of the Company’s Manager from 2005 to 2013. The Company does not currently intend to fill the Board vacancy created by Mr. Bottiglieri’s retirement.

    Elias Sabo, CEO of CODI, commented: “It has been an absolute honor and privilege to work with Jim over the past 20 years. He has been a great leader, director, mentor, and friend. It is difficult to measure the many contributions Jim has made to our organization, beginning with our initial public offering in 2006. His accounting expertise and superior integrity were fundamental in establishing the groundwork we rely on today to ensure strong financial controls and provide transparency to our shareholders. On behalf of our entire organization, I want to express our sincere gratitude to Jim for his years of dedicated service and wish him all the best following his retirement.”

    Larry Enterline, Board Chair, added: “I am happy for Jim to have the opportunity to enjoy a well-earned retirement. Jim is a consummate professional and has worked collaboratively during his tenure to pass along his significant institutional knowledge and assist with the development of the next generation of Board leadership. Although Jim will be missed, his retirement is the culmination of a years-long strategy to refine CODI’s Board and recruit and retain a highly capable group of leaders who are well-equipped to oversee our business and represent the interests of our shareholders.”

    Jim Bottiglieri stated: “I am grateful for the opportunities I’ve been afforded during my tenure with CODI. Being able to support this unique organization through its transformational growth over the past 20 years has been a highlight of my career. At its core, CODI is an organization comprised of exceptional people and has many exciting opportunities for growth in the years ahead.”

    About Compass Diversified (“CODI”)

    Since its IPO in 2006, CODI has consistently executed its strategy of owning and managing a diverse set of highly defensible, middle-market businesses across the branded consumer, industrial, healthcare, and critical outsourced services sectors. The Company leverages its permanent capital base, long-term disciplined approach, and actionable expertise to maintain controlling ownership interests in each of its subsidiaries, maximizing its ability to impact long-term cash flow generation and value creation. The Company provides both debt and equity capital for its subsidiaries, contributing to their financial and operating flexibility. CODI utilizes the cash flows generated by its subsidiaries to invest in the long-term growth of the Company and has consistently generated strong returns through its culture of transparency, alignment and accountability. For more information, please visit compassdiversified.com.

    Forward Looking Statements

    This press release contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including statements with regard to the expectations related to the future performance of CODI. Words such as “believes,” “expects,” “will,” “anticipates,” “intends,” “continue,” “projects,” “potential,” “assuming,” and “future” or similar expressions, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to the inherent uncertainties in predicting future results and conditions, some of which are not currently known to CODI. In addition to factors previously disclosed in CODI’s reports filed with the SEC, the following factors, among others, could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements: changes in the economy, financial markets and political environment; risks associated with possible disruption in CODI’s operations or the economy generally due to terrorism, natural disasters, social, civil and political unrest or the COVID-19 pandemic; future changes in laws or regulations (including the interpretation of these laws and regulations by regulatory authorities); general considerations associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the markets in which we operate; and other considerations that may be disclosed from time to time in CODI’s publicly disseminated documents and filings. Further information regarding CODI and factors which could affect the forward-looking statements contained herein can be found in CODI’s annual reports on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Except as required by law, CODI undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

    Investor Relations

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    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: LCQ16: Professional Services Advancement Support Scheme

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

    LCQ16: Professional Services Advancement Support Scheme
    LCQ16: Professional Services Advancement Support Scheme
    *******************************************************

         Following is a question by the Hon Maggie Chan and a written reply by the Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development, Mr Algernon Yau, in the Legislative Council today (February 19): Question:      The Professional Services Advancement Support Scheme (PASS) launched by the Government in 2016 with a total commitment of $200 ‍million aims at funding non-profit-making industry-led projects to increase exchanges and co-operation between Hong Kong’s professional services and external counterparts, promote relevant publicity activities, and enhance the standards and external competitiveness of Hong Kong’s professional services. In addition, the Government has set aside $50 ‍million to launch the Professionals Participation Subsidy Programme (PSP) under PASS, which subsidises Hong Kong’s major professional bodies to participate in relevant activities organised by the Government and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council after the epidemic has stabilised in order to step up the promotion of Hong Kong’s competitive edges and professional services to external parties. In this connection, will the Government inform this Council: (1) of the following information on the Main Programme of PASS from August 2021 to November last year: the number of (i) funded and (ii) ‍rejected projects, (iii) the number of beneficiary organisations, (iv) the average amount of grant for approved projects, and (v) the beneficiary sectors and their proportions; (2) given that according to the paper submitted by the Government to the Finance Committee of this Council on July 8, 2016, the funding of $200 million allocated to PASS could sustain its operation up to around 2021-22, of the total amount of grants involved in the approved projects of PASS since its launch, and whether the Government has re-assessed up to when the funding can sustain the operation of PASS; (3) of the following information on the PSP since its launch: (i) the number of applications approved, (ii) the total amount of subsidies granted, and (iii) the number of beneficiaries; (4) as there are views pointing out that international legal and dispute resolution services are among the several industries in which Hong Kong can utilise its unique advantages under “one country, two systems”, whether the Government has compiled statistics on the number of applications for PASS funding submitted by organisations in the legal sector and the proportion they account for, and analysed their reasons for applying; of the highest and lowest amounts of funding granted for such applications; (5) whether it has reviewed if the number of applications under PASS has resumed to the pre-epidemic level after the Government’s lifting of all mandatory mask-wearing requirements in March 2023; if the number of applications has resumed to the pre-epidemic level, of the details; if not, whether it has studied the reasons for that; and (6) apart from issuing a press release on December 1 last year announcing that PASS would accept a new round of applications, whether the Government has formulated other promotion plans for PASS; if so, of the details; if not, whether it will formulate the relevant plans expeditiously? Reply: President,      The Professional Services Advancement Support Scheme (PASS), launched in November 2016 with a total commitment of $200 million, aims to support Hong Kong’s professional services sector in undertaking worthwhile projects to strengthen exchanges and co-operation with external counterparts, promote relevant publicity activities, and enhance service standards and external competitiveness. Since the launch of the Main Programme of PASS, nearly 120 projects have been funded, involving a total grant of about $80 million.      In addition, it was announced in the 2020 Policy Address that the Government would set aside $50 million under PASS to set up the Professionals Participation Subsidy Programme (PSP), which subsidises Hong Kong’s major professional bodies to participate in relevant activities organised by the Government (e.g. Hong Kong Economic and Trade Offices) and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council after the pandemic situation has stabilised, with a view to stepping up promotion of Hong Kong’s competitive edge and professional services to Mainland cities and overseas markets.      My reply in response to the question raised by the Hon Maggie Chan is as follows: (1), (3) and (4) From August 2021 to November last year, a total of 41 projects were funded under the PASS Main Programme, involving 24 applicants with a total grant of about $24 million. The average amount of grant for each project is about $600,000. A total of 25 applications were not funded. Among the beneficiary sectors, health-related services accounted for about 40 per cent, legal services accounted for about 20 per cent and building and construction-related services accounted for around 15 per cent. Beneficiary sectors of the remaining projects included design services, information and communications technology services etc. Projects related to legal services involved four applicants, with the highest and lowest amounts of grant approved being around $1.1 million and $270,000 respectively. As for the PSP, since the stabilisation of the pandemic and easing of travel restrictions at the end of 2022, a total of 14 activities were funded. Nearly 300 local professionals participated, involving a total subsidy of about $3.4 million. (2) As mentioned in the first paragraph above, since the launch of the PASS Main Programme in 2016, the total amount of grant approved is about $80 million, averaging around $10 million of funding approved per year. With reference to the average annual funding approved in the past, it is expected that the funding of $150 million designated for the Main Programme can sustain its operation until around 2031-32, though the actual situation will depend on the number of applications submitted by applicants and the amount of grant approved for each project. (5) and (6) The number of applications under PASS during the pandemic was similar to those before and after the pandemic. Most of the applicants conducted their projects online during the pandemic, hence the relatively low amount of funding applied. The projects have now resumed in a physical format. We have been actively promoting PASS through various channels, such as holding quarterly briefing sessions, sending emails to post-secondary institutions, commercial and industrial organisations as well as professional bodies, issuing press releases, and providing application information on the PASS website. We also take the initiative to reach out to and meet with commercial and industrial organisations as well as professional bodies from time to time to brief them on PASS and encourage them to actively apply for funding. Relevant promotion work is on-going.

     
    Ends/Wednesday, February 19, 2025Issued at HKT 11:00

    NNNN

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Isabel Schnabel: Interview with the Financial Times

    Source: European Central Bank

    Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Olaf Storbeck on 14 February 2025

    19 February 2025

    How relevant is the natural rate – R* – for day-to-day policymaking from your point of view?

    The natural rate of interest is an important theoretical concept. But it’s not well-suited to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance. The ECB staff analysis that was published recently had one main message: we know that we know very little. Model and estimation uncertainty result in confidence bands that are so wide that they include any reasonable interest rate that the ECB may set at this point. Moreover, R* is a steady-state concept for a world without shocks. That’s certainly not the world that we are in today. Just look at what’s happening with the evolving trade conflict on which we are getting news on a daily basis. So for all those reasons, I think R* cannot be any reliable guide for monetary policy in real time.

    Has your view on this changed?

    The point I have always emphasised is how R* is evolving over the longer term. People have focused too much on the narrow range for R* that was given in the staff note. This is misleading for several reasons. The narrow range only includes the models for which estimates were already available for the fourth quarter of 2024. If you look at the R* estimates for the third quarter, you see that the range actually goes up all the way to 3%. This is even above the current deposit facility rate of 2.75%. And that range still only includes the uncertainty stemming from using different models. If you add the parameter and filtering uncertainty, you get even wider bands. The one thing that you do see is that the overall range seems to have moved up over recent years. For me, that is the key point.

    But the most recent ECB estimates of R* also suggest that the current level is still lower than it was before the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis.

    That remains to be seen. There has been a clear upward trend. I expect this trend to continue for a number of reasons, including high and rising public debt and the huge investment needs for the digital and green transitions. Another factor is increasing global fragmentation. It leads to a partial reversal of the global savings glut, due to shrinking current account surpluses of some major economies, which was one of the main factors that had pushed R* down. So for me, the main message from the R* analysis is: maintaining price stability over the medium term is likely to require higher real rates in the future than before the pandemic. We cannot pin down the level of R* with any degree of confidence, but we can get an impression about the direction. For me, that direction for R* now is upwards again.

    The Euro zone economy suffers from a lack of economic dynamism and economic growth. Doesn’t this put downward pressure on the natural interest rate?

    Yes, there have been secular factors that have pushed R* down. But we are currently in a situation of transformation that may actually reverse that trend. That’s the whole point.

    When you say that R* is not very helpful for short-term monetary policymaking, why have you stressed it so much in your speeches and interviews?

    It’s important that we understand general macroeconomic trends. Also in the pre-pandemic period, it was very important to understand the underlying natural real rate environment. It can never be precise, but it helps us understand the broader picture. It has no impact on any individual rate decision.

    But would you say that it is relevant for the medium-term trajectory of monetary policy, let’s say for the next year or two? Or does it only matter over the next ten or 20 years?

    I think it has an impact on our medium-term thinking.

    Medium-term thinking would mean: it matters over the next two to three years, right?

    Well, it’s hard to pin down precisely.

    Some ECB observers have suggested that the natural rate was used by more hawkish voices as an argument in favour of being more careful and not lowering interest rates too fast. Would you agree?

    If you believe that R* has moved up, this argues for a more cautious approach. But this cannot just depend on R*. We need to look at the incoming data in order to understand how restrictive our monetary policy is. And the more evidence we have that monetary policy is no longer restrictive, the more cautious we have to become because further rate cuts may no longer be appropriate.

    So how restrictive is the ECB’s monetary policy at the moment?

    The data are showing that the degree of restriction has come down significantly, up to a point where we can no longer say with confidence that our monetary policy is still restrictive. One of the important data sources in this context is the bank lending survey.

    We’re looking at that very carefully. For corporate loans, 90% of banks said in the most recent round that the general level of interest rates has no impact on loan demand, while 8% said it has lifted credit demand. A year ago, a third of banks said that interest rates were weighing on loan demand. It’s even clearer when you look at mortgages. Almost half of banks said in the most recent round that the general level of interest rates is supporting loan demand. A year ago, more than 40% said that it was constraining loan demand. This is also reflected in a historically strong increase in mortgage demand in that same survey, which is gradually transmitting into the hard data on loan growth. Corporate loans were growing by 1.5% in December, mortgages by 1.1%.

    The easing is also being transmitted to the real economy. Consumption picked up in the third quarter by more than we had expected. And the savings rate has started to come down from its very high level. But of course, there are transmission lags, and part of the easing is still in the pipeline.

    You said that you can’t say with confidence anymore if monetary policy is still restrictive. The last ECB policy statement clearly stated that it still is. Do you have a different view than the ECB stated in its latest policy statement?

    No, I fully agreed with the statement last time. But we are now a step further, right? The January monetary policy statement referred to the interest rate of 3% and the level of restrictiveness before the latest monetary policy decision. The further we go down, the lower my conviction in such a statement will be. And note that I’m not saying our monetary policy is no longer restrictive. What I’m saying is I’m no longer sure whether it is still restrictive. But we should not overstate a difference of 25 basis points.

    Should the ECB drop the reference to restrictiveness in March?

    That is a discussion we should have in the next meeting.

    In an FT survey of Euro zone economists just before Christmas, half of them said they think that the ECB is behind the curve. What is your view on this?

    I’m firmly in the camp of the other half who think that we are right on track. The data that we’ve seen have confirmed that our gradual and cautious approach has been appropriate. Domestic inflation is still high, wage growth is still elevated, and we’ve seen new shocks to energy prices. We’ve also seen that inflation expectations are very sensitive to such shocks. So I think our approach is just right.

    Some economists argue that the big uncertainty and all those shocks could justify insurance cuts. Do you have any view on that?

    I don’t see any argument for that at this point, especially as we are getting closer to no longer being restrictive. If anything, we are getting closer to the point where we may have to pause or halt our rate cuts.

    Pause or halt… but not increase?

    No. That I would exclude.

    How close do you think we are to the point where the ECB should pause its easing?

    I will leave that to your interpretation. I don’t know what’s going to happen in the next meetings, so let’s see. But we need to start that discussion.

    That’s not what markets take as the base case scenario right now. Do you think that markets are ahead of themselves?

    Well, markets have been jumping around a bit in response to what is happening in the world. But an April rate cut is no longer fully priced in. So markets are not entirely sure either.

    How well is monetary transmission working at the moment? We saw quite an uptick in yields in December although there wasn’t any change in monetary policy. All other things being equal, this slows down monetary policy transmission, doesn’t it?

    We have lowered the deposit facility rate by 125 basis points over the past eight months, and this has been transmitted smoothly to short-term market rates. We’ve also seen that bank lending rates have come down quite a bit – corporate loan rates by 92 basis points and mortgage rates by 64 basis points by December. This is significant. It tells you that transmission is working. When it comes to government bond yields, it’s important to look through the short-term volatility and take a somewhat longer perspective. And what you see then is that sovereign bond yields have remained rather stable. We had a strong repricing in 2022, when the ten-year Bund moved from negative territory at the end of 2021 to around 2.4% in October 2022. That is very close to the number that we’re seeing today. So we’ve been seeing a return of long-term sovereign bond yields to their new normal. We shouldn’t overstate the short-term volatility that we’ve experienced over the past weeks.

    There’s another aspect that is quite important. One of the most interesting features of this tightening cycle is that it has not led to a comparable tightening of broader financial conditions. The exceptionally strong risk appetite of financial investors has even boosted equity prices and compressed credit spreads, and that has weakened monetary policy transmission. And part of that is due to the fact that we are still holding a very large monetary policy bond portfolio.

    But overall, also taking into account the lags, monetary policy transmission is working fine.

    Is the ECB’s “meeting-by-meeting” communication really credible? The ECB now says that the direction of travel is clear. Isn’t this a pre-commitment to further rate cuts?

    I firmly believe in the meeting-by-meeting approach. The current time of high volatility is certainly not the time to tie our hands through forward guidance. And this is also what we stress in our monetary policy statements: we are not pre-committing to any particular rate path. At the time when it was still relatively clear that monetary policy was restrictive, one could infer the direction of travel from that. But this is no longer the case. And therefore, for me, the direction of travel is not so clear anymore.

    Is this view shared by the majority of the Executive Board or the Governing Council?

    It’s not for me to comment on that. It’s going back to the point that we now have to start the discussion on how far we should go. I’m not saying that we’re there yet. But we have to start the discussion.

    If we take the meeting-by-meeting approach and data dependency as a given, does the type of data that has to be assessed need to change over time?

    There are broadly two sets of data that we need to focus on. The first one refers to the inflation outlook: inflation itself, inflation expectations, wages, productivity, exchange rates. We use incoming data to cross-check the assumptions underlying our projections. This is why I never saw data dependence as a backward-looking concept. It was always forward-looking because we use incoming data to learn more about the credibility of our inflation outlook. The second set of data relates to the level of restrictiveness of monetary policy: interest rates, broader financial conditions, lending markets, the housing market as well as domestic demand, that is consumption, savings and investment. Of course, when we have a monetary policy meeting, we always look at all available data.

    Can I challenge you on your claim that it was always forward-looking? At the time of high inflation, the ECB put a lot of emphasis on the actual inflation data from the previous month, which by definition is backward-looking. GDP numbers are by definition also very backward-looking.

    I don’t agree. What do we learn from the current inflation data? We learn whether the transmission of our policy or of shocks is working as expected. High services inflation tells us something about its stickiness. If we spot deviations, we will eventually adjust our models but we also have to change our view about the medium-term outlook. So, in my view it was never backward-looking.

    Data dependence is all the more important in today’s world. Some people say that the projections have become more credible. But who knows what’s going to happen as regards the trade conflict, the war in Ukraine and so on. We are faced with an unusual number of shocks, and that requires us to be always able to react. I don’t have a fixed mindset about what to do. Quite the opposite. I think we need to be able to adjust to whatever data or shock is coming in and what’s happening in the world and in the euro area economy.

    What are the current data telling us about the inflation outlook?

    Both services inflation and wage growth are still at an uncomfortably high level. Our projections foresee a deceleration of both. But this still needs to materialise. Services inflation has been stuck at around 4% since November 2023, and it still has to come down. For me, this is actually quite important. And therefore, the incoming data will be very relevant because our projections foresee a relatively quick deceleration of services inflation over this year.

    How quickly do you want to see service inflation coming down?

    It should start to come down in February. That’s what we expect. Over time, it does not necessarily have to come down to 2% but to a level that is consistent with our medium-term 2% target. Wage growth is also still high, but we have many indications that it is going to decelerate. For example, our wage tracker shows that wage growth is expected to drop steeply in the second half of the year. Part of that is due to a base effect from one-off payments. Hence, wage growth is expected to stay relatively elevated over the first half of the year. So we still need to see this deceleration. This is something that I pay a lot of attention to.

    How concerned are you about recent swings in energy prices?

    Energy and food prices can always offer surprises. We have seen some relatively strong moves in energy prices recently. Gas prices moved up a lot. That was mainly driven by cold temperatures. Very recently, gas prices dropped sharply. This seems to be driven partly by uncertainty about whether countries will fill up their gas storages as quickly as originally intended. A second reason is the debate about a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. This can cause a lot of volatility, which can have a strong impact on headline inflation and also on underlying inflation because energy serves as an input. We have to monitor this carefully.

    What are the implications for monetary policy from energy price volatility? Is this deflationary or inflationary?

    Recent volatility has been extreme. Before the recent fall in gas prices it was clearly inflationary. But now we have to see how that is going to play out. In general, I see risks to our inflation outlook as somewhat skewed to the upside. So I would not exclude that inflation comes back to 2% later than we had anticipated. But that remains to be seen.

    The ECB this year will review its monetary strategy. President Lagarde has excluded the current inflation target from that review. Do you think that’s the right call?

    Our symmetric, medium-term inflation target of 2% has served us very well in the high inflation period. So I really don’t see any reason to question it. And I believe there is strong support for this view in the Governing Council. What we have seen, however, is how quickly the inflation environment can change. And we have also learned how much people dislike inflation. But for me, that has implications primarily for the reaction function and not for the target. I think these two should be kept apart.

    What are the potential implications for the reaction function?

    The reaction function should be part of the debate. Back in 2021 during the previous strategy review, the discussion was very much under the impression of the low-for-long period. The main concern at the time was that our monetary policy was constrained by the effective lower bound on interest rates. When you read the monetary policy strategy statement today, you would think it comes from a different world. It focused on the risk of inflation being too low, and stated that we should be particularly forceful or persistent in such a scenario. But we have shifted to a new world. The past few years have shown that there are also risks of a de-anchoring of inflation expectations to the upside and that upside inflation risks can materialise quickly and become more persistent due to second-round effects. And therefore, I believe that the new reaction function should be symmetric in order to take into account the risks in both directions. This is especially true given that we are likely to face more adverse supply-side shocks going forward.

    So effectively you are arguing in favour of a more hawkish reaction function?

    I don’t like these notions of hawks and doves, and I don’t think that they are relevant here. My point is that our reaction function should acknowledge the fundamental shift of the macroeconomic environment. Up to 2021, we paid very little attention to upside risks to inflation. There was the perception that central banks would know precisely how to deal with a surge in inflation. But we’ve experienced that it has been quite difficult. Inflation has been above target now for almost four years. Looking forward, we should be putting equal weight on risks in both directions. And I wouldn’t call that a hawkish assertion.

    Should the ECB toolkit be changed?

    We’ve gained a lot of experience with the different tools. I do believe that all the tools we have should remain in our toolkit. But we’ve learned how important it is to carefully weigh the benefits and costs of our instruments – especially when it comes to asset purchases. They have proven very effective in stabilising markets. But as a monetary policy stance instrument, they have been less beneficial and costlier than we thought. This should be taken into account. The same applies to forward guidance. Many people believe that forward guidance led to a delayed response to the inflation surge. So forward guidance is another tool that we need to look at very carefully.

    Are you implicitly saying that ECB should not have done as much quantitative easing as it did in the years up to 2021?

    My point is that once we are back to a more normal world – a situation where inflation expectations are well anchored, and services inflation and unit labour cost growth have come down – and we are confident that we are sustainably back at our target, then we could become more tolerant of moderate deviations from our target. We should stop fine-tuning and responding to single data points. We should instead focus on large persistent shocks that give rise to a risk of a de-anchoring of inflation expectations in either direction.

    So is your point that the ECB should be more willing to tolerate downward deviations to the 2% target in a steady state?

    We should be more willing to tolerate both moderate downward and upward deviations, and act when there is a threat of de-anchoring.

    But that’s an implicit change to the inflation target, is it not?

    No, not at all. My point is that we should be less activist and rather take the time to assess whether shocks pose a serious risk to inflation expectations. Of course, we should keep in mind that the vulnerability of inflation expectations may have changed after the recent inflation experience. People have learned that inflation can increase sharply and that this is very harmful. Firms have learned that they can reprice relatively quickly, and we have to take this into account.

    Finally, we need to think about how to deal with the uncertainty around our economic and inflation outlook. For me, the most useful way to deal with that is to make greater use of scenario analysis – and in a different way than we’ve done over the past years. Back then we were looking at tail risks, which was very useful. But in the future, we should also look at plausible alternative scenarios in order to get away from the illusion of precision that we create by just focusing on the baseline point estimate. We all know there is a lot of uncertainty around it. So I think it would be important to also look at plausible alternative scenarios to illustrate this uncertainty.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: expert reaction to the announcement of the expansion of the OpenSAFELY data platform

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Scientists comment on the expansion of the OpenSAFELY data platform. 

    Prof Andrew Morris, Director of HDR UK, said: 

    “OpenSAFELY is an excellent example of what is possible when we get health data right with the confidence of patients, the public and health professionals. Access to comprehensive GP data across all of England is a great step forward for safe and approved research. GP data offers greater breadth and depth than hospital data, providing a detailed picture of people’s health over time. Many common conditions, like arthritis, depression and back pain are mostly managed by GPs, so this data is vital for research that can improve care for millions.  

    “The OpenSAFELY platform is one that proved its worth during the pandemic, giving us much needed knowledge about COVID-19.  It permits researchers to work with the information the data provides – while preventing them from accessing the data itself. Now by moving beyond COVID-19, researchers will be able to uncover groundbreaking insights that can improve the health and well-being of countless individuals. Significant challenges remain – the system is still evolving, with much work still to be done.  But as OpenSAFELY and other initiatives show, the UK has both the skills and the will to make it work.  

    “The UK has long been a global leader in health data research.  But to stay ahead, we must make coordinated investments in secure data infrastructure if data driven research is to power improvements in patient care, public health, NHS efficiency, clinical trials and enable medical discovery. This includes secure data sharing with flagship programmes such as Our Future Health, UK Biobank and Genomics England.”

     

    Professor Sir Rory Collins, Principal Investigator and CEO of UK Biobank, said:     

    “The expansion of OpenSAFELY should be welcomed as it enhances an innovative and useful tool for health researchers working on GP data. However, the most significant leaps in scientific discovery will come from comparing many different types of data simultaneously, and at scale. For example, the 20,000 researchers who use UK Biobank can analyse over 10,000 variables on many of our 500,000 volunteers, with whole genome sequencing being just one of those. 

    “It is this ability to study the genetic, imaging, lifestyle, secondary and – soon – primary care data in combination that is so vital for research. That’s why we’ve seen over 14,000 peer-reviewed papers published using UK Biobank data, including developments that should lead to better diagnostics and treatments for conditions such as diabetes, dementia and heart disease. 

    “GP data is a critical national asset, and both researchers and patients will benefit from this expansion. The next step is adding consented GP data to larger datasets, and we at UK Biobank are delighted to be working with NHS England to add the de-identified primary care data of our 500,000 volunteers.” 

    Prof Sheila Bird, Honorary Professor, University of Edinburgh’s College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine; and Visiting Senior Fellow at the MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, University of Cambridge, said:

    “Dr. (now Professor) Ben Goldacre, a physician by profession, was first to receive the Royal Statistical Society’s Award for Statistical Excellence in Journalism for his  Bad Science column in the Guardian.

    “Professor Goldacre, who authored the Goldacre Review in 2022 [1] is against Bad Science. But he is staunchly for properly-approved record-linkages which respect patient confidentiality: and his team at OpenSafely have worked, during SARS-CoV-2 and since, to deliver just that. The delivery is a work in progress, as the excellent video about OpenSafely makes clear. Hence, my comment is about elements of enhanced delivery.

    “First, as the Royal Statistical Society has argued for since swine-flu in 2009/10, the public  – and OpenSafely – need legislation to end the late registration of fact-of-death in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Only in Scotland, in our dis-United Kingdom, is fact-of-death registered, by law, within 8 days of death having been ascertained. OpenSafely for E&W urgently needs prompt and proper registration of fact-of-death which – for inquest deaths – is delayed by months or years [2].

    “Second, since one of five deaths aged 5-44 years in E&W is not registered for at least 6 months [2], ending the late registration of deaths is essential if we are to learn by OpenSafely’s research how to prevent or reduce premature mortality such as deaths due to suicide or addictions.

    “Third, analysts – including biostatisticians such as I – need to know in more detail about the random generators that OpenSafely uses for creating its pseudo-data, on which, as a biostatistician, I would develop and test my analysis routines. In particular, real data are often more complex in structure than statistical approximations to them in terms of their distribution (eg lognormal distribution assumed but the actual ln-data are not normally-distributed) or correlation structure. Analysts typically need to check assumptions on real data but may be writing checking-code based on approximations. For the checking-code to be incisive enough, analysts may need to understand in some detail the  “random generation” processes.

    “Fourthly, enhancements to OpenSafely may lead to important evolution in how some data are recorded by general practitioners. For example, when Gao et al. used record-linkage within Scotland’s  safe-haven to analyse the methadone-specific death-rate and other opioid-related deaths in Scotland’s Methadone Client Cohort (2009-2015)[4], we found that the available data were quantity of methadone prescribed (not daily-dose) and reimbursement date (not prescription end-date) because those quantities were the data needed to audit the reimbursement of pharmacists[5]. By contrast, guidelines on safe prescribing of methadone are written in terms of daily-dose!

    “Finally, the precautions built-into OpenSafely may mean that patients who registered objection to the use of their GP-data by care.data or the subsequent attempted grab during SARS-CoV-2 (which also failed) may wish to re-consider their objection. How does one do so?

    1. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/better-broader-safer-using-health-data-for-research-and-analysis
    2. Bird SM. Editorial: Counting the dead properly and promptly. Journal of the Royal Statistics Society Series A 2013; 176: 815 – 817.                                                                                                                                           
    3. Bird SM. End late registration of fact-of-death in England and Wales. Lancet 2015: 385: 1830 – 1831.             
    4. Bird SM. Everyone counts – so count everyone in England and Wales. Lancet 2016: 387: 25 – 26.                     Gao L, Robertson JR,
    5. Bird SM.  Scotland’s 2009-2015 methadone-prescription cohort: quintiles for daily-dose of prescribed methadone and risk of methadone-specific death. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology 2020; accepted 12 June 2020; https://doi.org/10.1111/bcp.14432.

    This was announced at an SMC Press Briefing, and was accompanied by a funding announcement from Wellcome. The embargo lifted at 11:30am on Wednesday 19th February. 

    Declared interests:

    Prof Andrew Morris “Andrew Morris is Director of Health Data Research UK, the national institute for health data science; is Professor of Medicine and Vice Principal at the University of Edinburgh; is President of the Academy of Medical Sciences, has minority (

    Prof Sir Rory Collins “I am CEO and PI of UK Biobank, which is a Charitable Company established as a Joint Venture by the MRC and Wellcome. I have been in that role since September 2005, seconded 60%FTE from the University of Oxford where I am Head of the Nuffield Department of Population Health (which, along with other research organisations globally, benefits from using the UK Biobank – without any preferential access – for health-related research that is in the public interest).”  

     Prof Sheila Bird “has 30-years of experience of confidential record-linkage; & leads for Royal Statistical Society on need for legislation to end late registration of fact-of-death in E&W and Northern Ireland.”

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Isabel Schnabel: Interview with the Financial Times

    Source: European Central Bank

    Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Olaf Storbeck on 14 February 2025

    19 February 2025

    How relevant is the natural rate – R* – for day-to-day policymaking from your point of view?

    The natural rate of interest is an important theoretical concept. But it’s not well-suited to determine the appropriate monetary policy stance. The ECB staff analysis that was published recently had one main message: we know that we know very little. Model and estimation uncertainty result in confidence bands that are so wide that they include any reasonable interest rate that the ECB may set at this point. Moreover, R* is a steady-state concept for a world without shocks. That’s certainly not the world that we are in today. Just look at what’s happening with the evolving trade conflict on which we are getting news on a daily basis. So for all those reasons, I think R* cannot be any reliable guide for monetary policy in real time.

    Has your view on this changed?

    The point I have always emphasised is how R* is evolving over the longer term. People have focused too much on the narrow range for R* that was given in the staff note. This is misleading for several reasons. The narrow range only includes the models for which estimates were already available for the fourth quarter of 2024. If you look at the R* estimates for the third quarter, you see that the range actually goes up all the way to 3%. This is even above the current deposit facility rate of 2.75%. And that range still only includes the uncertainty stemming from using different models. If you add the parameter and filtering uncertainty, you get even wider bands. The one thing that you do see is that the overall range seems to have moved up over recent years. For me, that is the key point.

    But the most recent ECB estimates of R* also suggest that the current level is still lower than it was before the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis.

    That remains to be seen. There has been a clear upward trend. I expect this trend to continue for a number of reasons, including high and rising public debt and the huge investment needs for the digital and green transitions. Another factor is increasing global fragmentation. It leads to a partial reversal of the global savings glut, due to shrinking current account surpluses of some major economies, which was one of the main factors that had pushed R* down. So for me, the main message from the R* analysis is: maintaining price stability over the medium term is likely to require higher real rates in the future than before the pandemic. We cannot pin down the level of R* with any degree of confidence, but we can get an impression about the direction. For me, that direction for R* now is upwards again.

    The Euro zone economy suffers from a lack of economic dynamism and economic growth. Doesn’t this put downward pressure on the natural interest rate?

    Yes, there have been secular factors that have pushed R* down. But we are currently in a situation of transformation that may actually reverse that trend. That’s the whole point.

    When you say that R* is not very helpful for short-term monetary policymaking, why have you stressed it so much in your speeches and interviews?

    It’s important that we understand general macroeconomic trends. Also in the pre-pandemic period, it was very important to understand the underlying natural real rate environment. It can never be precise, but it helps us understand the broader picture. It has no impact on any individual rate decision.

    But would you say that it is relevant for the medium-term trajectory of monetary policy, let’s say for the next year or two? Or does it only matter over the next ten or 20 years?

    I think it has an impact on our medium-term thinking.

    Medium-term thinking would mean: it matters over the next two to three years, right?

    Well, it’s hard to pin down precisely.

    Some ECB observers have suggested that the natural rate was used by more hawkish voices as an argument in favour of being more careful and not lowering interest rates too fast. Would you agree?

    If you believe that R* has moved up, this argues for a more cautious approach. But this cannot just depend on R*. We need to look at the incoming data in order to understand how restrictive our monetary policy is. And the more evidence we have that monetary policy is no longer restrictive, the more cautious we have to become because further rate cuts may no longer be appropriate.

    So how restrictive is the ECB’s monetary policy at the moment?

    The data are showing that the degree of restriction has come down significantly, up to a point where we can no longer say with confidence that our monetary policy is still restrictive. One of the important data sources in this context is the bank lending survey.

    We’re looking at that very carefully. For corporate loans, 90% of banks said in the most recent round that the general level of interest rates has no impact on loan demand, while 8% said it has lifted credit demand. A year ago, a third of banks said that interest rates were weighing on loan demand. It’s even clearer when you look at mortgages. Almost half of banks said in the most recent round that the general level of interest rates is supporting loan demand. A year ago, more than 40% said that it was constraining loan demand. This is also reflected in a historically strong increase in mortgage demand in that same survey, which is gradually transmitting into the hard data on loan growth. Corporate loans were growing by 1.5% in December, mortgages by 1.1%.

    The easing is also being transmitted to the real economy. Consumption picked up in the third quarter by more than we had expected. And the savings rate has started to come down from its very high level. But of course, there are transmission lags, and part of the easing is still in the pipeline.

    You said that you can’t say with confidence anymore if monetary policy is still restrictive. The last ECB policy statement clearly stated that it still is. Do you have a different view than the ECB stated in its latest policy statement?

    No, I fully agreed with the statement last time. But we are now a step further, right? The January monetary policy statement referred to the interest rate of 3% and the level of restrictiveness before the latest monetary policy decision. The further we go down, the lower my conviction in such a statement will be. And note that I’m not saying our monetary policy is no longer restrictive. What I’m saying is I’m no longer sure whether it is still restrictive. But we should not overstate a difference of 25 basis points.

    Should the ECB drop the reference to restrictiveness in March?

    That is a discussion we should have in the next meeting.

    In an FT survey of Euro zone economists just before Christmas, half of them said they think that the ECB is behind the curve. What is your view on this?

    I’m firmly in the camp of the other half who think that we are right on track. The data that we’ve seen have confirmed that our gradual and cautious approach has been appropriate. Domestic inflation is still high, wage growth is still elevated, and we’ve seen new shocks to energy prices. We’ve also seen that inflation expectations are very sensitive to such shocks. So I think our approach is just right.

    Some economists argue that the big uncertainty and all those shocks could justify insurance cuts. Do you have any view on that?

    I don’t see any argument for that at this point, especially as we are getting closer to no longer being restrictive. If anything, we are getting closer to the point where we may have to pause or halt our rate cuts.

    Pause or halt… but not increase?

    No. That I would exclude.

    How close do you think we are to the point where the ECB should pause its easing?

    I will leave that to your interpretation. I don’t know what’s going to happen in the next meetings, so let’s see. But we need to start that discussion.

    That’s not what markets take as the base case scenario right now. Do you think that markets are ahead of themselves?

    Well, markets have been jumping around a bit in response to what is happening in the world. But an April rate cut is no longer fully priced in. So markets are not entirely sure either.

    How well is monetary transmission working at the moment? We saw quite an uptick in yields in December although there wasn’t any change in monetary policy. All other things being equal, this slows down monetary policy transmission, doesn’t it?

    We have lowered the deposit facility rate by 125 basis points over the past eight months, and this has been transmitted smoothly to short-term market rates. We’ve also seen that bank lending rates have come down quite a bit – corporate loan rates by 92 basis points and mortgage rates by 64 basis points by December. This is significant. It tells you that transmission is working. When it comes to government bond yields, it’s important to look through the short-term volatility and take a somewhat longer perspective. And what you see then is that sovereign bond yields have remained rather stable. We had a strong repricing in 2022, when the ten-year Bund moved from negative territory at the end of 2021 to around 2.4% in October 2022. That is very close to the number that we’re seeing today. So we’ve been seeing a return of long-term sovereign bond yields to their new normal. We shouldn’t overstate the short-term volatility that we’ve experienced over the past weeks.

    There’s another aspect that is quite important. One of the most interesting features of this tightening cycle is that it has not led to a comparable tightening of broader financial conditions. The exceptionally strong risk appetite of financial investors has even boosted equity prices and compressed credit spreads, and that has weakened monetary policy transmission. And part of that is due to the fact that we are still holding a very large monetary policy bond portfolio.

    But overall, also taking into account the lags, monetary policy transmission is working fine.

    Is the ECB’s “meeting-by-meeting” communication really credible? The ECB now says that the direction of travel is clear. Isn’t this a pre-commitment to further rate cuts?

    I firmly believe in the meeting-by-meeting approach. The current time of high volatility is certainly not the time to tie our hands through forward guidance. And this is also what we stress in our monetary policy statements: we are not pre-committing to any particular rate path. At the time when it was still relatively clear that monetary policy was restrictive, one could infer the direction of travel from that. But this is no longer the case. And therefore, for me, the direction of travel is not so clear anymore.

    Is this view shared by the majority of the Executive Board or the Governing Council?

    It’s not for me to comment on that. It’s going back to the point that we now have to start the discussion on how far we should go. I’m not saying that we’re there yet. But we have to start the discussion.

    If we take the meeting-by-meeting approach and data dependency as a given, does the type of data that has to be assessed need to change over time?

    There are broadly two sets of data that we need to focus on. The first one refers to the inflation outlook: inflation itself, inflation expectations, wages, productivity, exchange rates. We use incoming data to cross-check the assumptions underlying our projections. This is why I never saw data dependence as a backward-looking concept. It was always forward-looking because we use incoming data to learn more about the credibility of our inflation outlook. The second set of data relates to the level of restrictiveness of monetary policy: interest rates, broader financial conditions, lending markets, the housing market as well as domestic demand, that is consumption, savings and investment. Of course, when we have a monetary policy meeting, we always look at all available data.

    Can I challenge you on your claim that it was always forward-looking? At the time of high inflation, the ECB put a lot of emphasis on the actual inflation data from the previous month, which by definition is backward-looking. GDP numbers are by definition also very backward-looking.

    I don’t agree. What do we learn from the current inflation data? We learn whether the transmission of our policy or of shocks is working as expected. High services inflation tells us something about its stickiness. If we spot deviations, we will eventually adjust our models but we also have to change our view about the medium-term outlook. So, in my view it was never backward-looking.

    Data dependence is all the more important in today’s world. Some people say that the projections have become more credible. But who knows what’s going to happen as regards the trade conflict, the war in Ukraine and so on. We are faced with an unusual number of shocks, and that requires us to be always able to react. I don’t have a fixed mindset about what to do. Quite the opposite. I think we need to be able to adjust to whatever data or shock is coming in and what’s happening in the world and in the euro area economy.

    What are the current data telling us about the inflation outlook?

    Both services inflation and wage growth are still at an uncomfortably high level. Our projections foresee a deceleration of both. But this still needs to materialise. Services inflation has been stuck at around 4% since November 2023, and it still has to come down. For me, this is actually quite important. And therefore, the incoming data will be very relevant because our projections foresee a relatively quick deceleration of services inflation over this year.

    How quickly do you want to see service inflation coming down?

    It should start to come down in February. That’s what we expect. Over time, it does not necessarily have to come down to 2% but to a level that is consistent with our medium-term 2% target. Wage growth is also still high, but we have many indications that it is going to decelerate. For example, our wage tracker shows that wage growth is expected to drop steeply in the second half of the year. Part of that is due to a base effect from one-off payments. Hence, wage growth is expected to stay relatively elevated over the first half of the year. So we still need to see this deceleration. This is something that I pay a lot of attention to.

    How concerned are you about recent swings in energy prices?

    Energy and food prices can always offer surprises. We have seen some relatively strong moves in energy prices recently. Gas prices moved up a lot. That was mainly driven by cold temperatures. Very recently, gas prices dropped sharply. This seems to be driven partly by uncertainty about whether countries will fill up their gas storages as quickly as originally intended. A second reason is the debate about a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. This can cause a lot of volatility, which can have a strong impact on headline inflation and also on underlying inflation because energy serves as an input. We have to monitor this carefully.

    What are the implications for monetary policy from energy price volatility? Is this deflationary or inflationary?

    Recent volatility has been extreme. Before the recent fall in gas prices it was clearly inflationary. But now we have to see how that is going to play out. In general, I see risks to our inflation outlook as somewhat skewed to the upside. So I would not exclude that inflation comes back to 2% later than we had anticipated. But that remains to be seen.

    The ECB this year will review its monetary strategy. President Lagarde has excluded the current inflation target from that review. Do you think that’s the right call?

    Our symmetric, medium-term inflation target of 2% has served us very well in the high inflation period. So I really don’t see any reason to question it. And I believe there is strong support for this view in the Governing Council. What we have seen, however, is how quickly the inflation environment can change. And we have also learned how much people dislike inflation. But for me, that has implications primarily for the reaction function and not for the target. I think these two should be kept apart.

    What are the potential implications for the reaction function?

    The reaction function should be part of the debate. Back in 2021 during the previous strategy review, the discussion was very much under the impression of the low-for-long period. The main concern at the time was that our monetary policy was constrained by the effective lower bound on interest rates. When you read the monetary policy strategy statement today, you would think it comes from a different world. It focused on the risk of inflation being too low, and stated that we should be particularly forceful or persistent in such a scenario. But we have shifted to a new world. The past few years have shown that there are also risks of a de-anchoring of inflation expectations to the upside and that upside inflation risks can materialise quickly and become more persistent due to second-round effects. And therefore, I believe that the new reaction function should be symmetric in order to take into account the risks in both directions. This is especially true given that we are likely to face more adverse supply-side shocks going forward.

    So effectively you are arguing in favour of a more hawkish reaction function?

    I don’t like these notions of hawks and doves, and I don’t think that they are relevant here. My point is that our reaction function should acknowledge the fundamental shift of the macroeconomic environment. Up to 2021, we paid very little attention to upside risks to inflation. There was the perception that central banks would know precisely how to deal with a surge in inflation. But we’ve experienced that it has been quite difficult. Inflation has been above target now for almost four years. Looking forward, we should be putting equal weight on risks in both directions. And I wouldn’t call that a hawkish assertion.

    Should the ECB toolkit be changed?

    We’ve gained a lot of experience with the different tools. I do believe that all the tools we have should remain in our toolkit. But we’ve learned how important it is to carefully weigh the benefits and costs of our instruments – especially when it comes to asset purchases. They have proven very effective in stabilising markets. But as a monetary policy stance instrument, they have been less beneficial and costlier than we thought. This should be taken into account. The same applies to forward guidance. Many people believe that forward guidance led to a delayed response to the inflation surge. So forward guidance is another tool that we need to look at very carefully.

    Are you implicitly saying that ECB should not have done as much quantitative easing as it did in the years up to 2021?

    My point is that once we are back to a more normal world – a situation where inflation expectations are well anchored, and services inflation and unit labour cost growth have come down – and we are confident that we are sustainably back at our target, then we could become more tolerant of moderate deviations from our target. We should stop fine-tuning and responding to single data points. We should instead focus on large persistent shocks that give rise to a risk of a de-anchoring of inflation expectations in either direction.

    So is your point that the ECB should be more willing to tolerate downward deviations to the 2% target in a steady state?

    We should be more willing to tolerate both moderate downward and upward deviations, and act when there is a threat of de-anchoring.

    But that’s an implicit change to the inflation target, is it not?

    No, not at all. My point is that we should be less activist and rather take the time to assess whether shocks pose a serious risk to inflation expectations. Of course, we should keep in mind that the vulnerability of inflation expectations may have changed after the recent inflation experience. People have learned that inflation can increase sharply and that this is very harmful. Firms have learned that they can reprice relatively quickly, and we have to take this into account.

    Finally, we need to think about how to deal with the uncertainty around our economic and inflation outlook. For me, the most useful way to deal with that is to make greater use of scenario analysis – and in a different way than we’ve done over the past years. Back then we were looking at tail risks, which was very useful. But in the future, we should also look at plausible alternative scenarios in order to get away from the illusion of precision that we create by just focusing on the baseline point estimate. We all know there is a lot of uncertainty around it. So I think it would be important to also look at plausible alternative scenarios to illustrate this uncertainty.

    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Greece financing from EIB Group totals €2.2 billion in 2024 with focus on energy supply, business growth and disaster preparedness

    Source: European Investment Bank

    EIB

    • EIB Group’s fresh financing in Greece last year amounted to €2.2 billion
    • Focus last year on energy supply, business growth and disaster management
    • Latest annual results bring EIB Group support in Greece over past five years to €14.5 billion

    The European Investment Bank (EIB) Group’s new financing in Greece amounted to €2.2 billion last year, with major support to bolster energy supplies, strengthen businesses and protect against environmental disasters in the country.

    The total for 2024 included €2.03 billion from the EIB and portfolio guarantees of €152 million from the European Investment Fund (EIF), which focuses on innovative and technology-driven small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as well as Small Mid-Caps in Europe.

    Top operations included loans of €390 million to natural-gas supplier DEPA Commercial to build solar parks, €150 million to power provider HEDNO to upgrade the grid, loans and guarantees of €550 million to domestic banks to expand financing for SMEs and Mid-Caps and €220 million to the government to bolster disaster management.

    Kostis Hatzidakis, Minister of Finance of the Hellenic Republic noted: “Greece’s relationship with the European Investment Bank is long-standing and strong. This was reaffirmed in 2024, with new financing reaching €2.2 billion. These funds will be used for investments in renewable energy sources, upgrades to the electricity grid, support for SMEs, and the purchase of firefighting aircraft and rescue equipment. The EIB was a valuable ally when Greece was cut off from the markets. It will remain a partner, but with a new approach. Going forward, priorities will focus on energy interconnections, research and technology, climate adaptation, and defense investments, as outlined in the EIB’s Strategic Roadmap”.

    “Our work in Greece is a testament to the transformative power of strategic financing,” said EIB Vice-President Yannis Tsakiris.In 2024, we reinforced our commitment to the country by supporting clean energy, climate resilience and critical infrastructure while strengthening SMEs, innovation, job creation and social cohesion.”

    The latest annual results bring total EIB Group financing in Greece over the past five years to €14.5 billion. The yearly average in the country since 2000 is almost €2.9 billion, which reflects an unusually high sum of almost €5 billion in 2021 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.

    The EIB Group’s support last year was almost 1% of Greece’s gross domestic product (GDP), the third-highest level among European Union countries behind only Croatia and Estonia. That means that EIB Group financing in Greece last year averaged €631 per inhabitant, making the country one of the biggest beneficiaries based on the size of the population and the economy. The funding is projected to catalyse investments in Greece of up to €6.6 billion – about 2.5% of its GDP.

    Energy supply

    The €390 million EIB loan to DEPA Commercial is for new photovoltaic (PV) parks in the regions of western Macedonia, Thessaly and central Greece. The sites will add approximately 800 megawatts (MW) of renewable energy – enough to power 278,000 households for a year.

    Also in the area of clean energy, the EIB last year provided a €195 million loan to supplier PPC Renewables to develop 580 MW of solar plants and 175 MW of battery storage. The moves will boost renewables capacity, grid stability and energy security.

    The €150 million EIB credit to HEDNO covers upgrades to Greece’s electricity-distribution network, improving grid reliability and facilitating integration of renewables.

    The EIB last year also took part in the creation of an EU “Decarbonisation Fund” for Greece that will channel €1.6 billion in revenue from the European emissions-trading system into sustainable energy and development projects on Greek islands. These include grid interconnections with the mainland and the phase-out of local power plants.

    Business boost

    The EIB last year allocated a total €702 million to strengthen SMEs and Mid-Caps in Greece. The support – 28% of the total – took the form of intermediated loans and guarantees.

    Top operations included €300 million guarantees to Eurobank and National Bank of Greece covering €600 million new loans to Mid-Caps. In addition, the EIB provided a €250 million loan to the National Bank of Greece to bolster green investments by Greek SMEs and Mid-Caps. The credit raised total EIB support for such investments in Greece to €1 billion.

    The EIF also showed its agility in supporting vital investments for both debt and equity. It signed €152m with several of Greece’s financial institutions for capped portfolio guarantees. They are expected to mobilise up to €1,8bn in financing for small and medium-sized enterprises, while making the Greek economy greener, and supporting innovation and the country’s digital transition.

    The EIF also signed a new €200 million equity mandate to support innovative companies in Life Sciences & Healthcare and Sustainability & Social Impact by improving their access to vital financing. Funded by Cohesion policy and national resources of the Hellenic Republic, the mandate will cover a financing gap in these sectors, supporting investments from pre-seed to growth stages based on market needs.

    Disaster protection

    The €220 million EIB loan last year to the Greek government is to buy fire trucks, rescue vehicles and aircraft needed to fight to natural disasters such as wildfires and floods, both of which have caused extensive damage in Greece in recent years. The credit also covers upgrades to essential disaster-management services.

    The financing forms part of a European climate-adaptation plan by the EIB Group and brings its total support for Greek civil protection and disaster preparedness to €595 million.

    EIB Advisory

    There were also key technical assistance projects delivered from EIB Advisory, a highlight being an agreement with the Athens Water Supply and Sewerage Company (EYDAP) to back its €2 billion, 10-year investment programme to ensure the Greek capital has a more resilient water supply and supporting investments in lignite-dependent regions such as Western Macedonia and Megalopolis in the Peloponnese, facilitating their transition to a future of clean energy.

    In December 2024, the continuation of advisory support by EIB advisors from the PASSA team to the Greek administration was approved. This support aims to ensure the smooth implementation of sustainable development and Just Transition projects financed by the EU.

    Background information

    EIB

    The European Investment Bank (ElB) is the long-term lending institution of the European Union, owned by its Member States. Built around eight core priorities, , we finance investments that contribute to EU policy objectives by bolstering climate action and the environment, digitalisation and technological innovation, security and defence, cohesion, agriculture and bioeconomy, social infrastructure, important investments outside the EU, and the Capital Markets Union.  

    The EIB Group, which also includes the European Investment Fund (EIF), signed nearly €89 billion in new financing for over 900 high-impact projects in 2024, boosting Europe’s competitiveness and security.  

    All projects financed by the EIB Group are in line with the Paris Climate Agreement, as pledged in our Climate Bank Roadmap. Almost 60% of the EIB Group’s annual financing supports projects directly contributing to climate change mitigation, adaptation, and a healthier environment.  

    Fostering market integration and mobilising investment, the Group supported a record of over €100 billion in new investment for Europe’s energy security in 2024 and mobilised €110 billion in growth capital for startups, scale-ups and European pioneers

    Approximately half of the EIB’s financing within the European Union is directed towards cohesion regions, where per capita income is lower than the EU average.

    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-OSI: Global-e Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    PETAH-TIKVA, Israel, Feb. 19, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Global-e Online Ltd. (Nasdaq: GLBE) the platform powering global direct-to-consumer e-commerce, today reported financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024 and full year 2024.

    “2024 was yet another record-breaking year for Global-e, and it came to a great close with a fourth quarter which was our strongest quarter ever, as we continued to execute on our strategy and further solidify Global-e’s leadership position in the global e-commerce space,” said Amir Schlachet, Founder and CEO of Global-e. “In addition, we achieved two important financial milestones during the quarter. For the first time in our journey, we crossed the 20% Adjusted EBITDA Margin mark, which was the long-term target we set for ourselves at the IPO, and we reached GAAP profitability for the first time as a public company; a testament to our relentless focus on delivering fast yet durable growth.”

    “As we head into 2025, we remain as committed as ever to continue on our growth path, deliver more cutting-edge and market-leading solutions to our merchants and seize more and more of the great opportunities that lie ahead of us in the world of global e-commerce. In 2025, we also expect to achieve three additional key financial milestones: surpass the 20% Adjusted EBITDA Margin mark on a full year basis, achieve annual GAAP profitability, and most importantly, for the first time, cross an annual run-rate of $1 billion in Revenues.”

    Q4 2024 Financial Results

    • GMV1 in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $1,713 million, an increase of 44% year over year
    • Revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $262.9 million, an increase of 42% year over year, of which service fees revenue was $117.3 million and fulfillment services revenue was $145.6 million
    • Non-GAAP gross profit2 in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $120.9 million, an increase of 53% year over year. GAAP gross profit in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $118.7 million
    • Non-GAAP gross margin2 in the fourth quarter of 2024 was 46%, an increase of 330 basis points from 42.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023. GAAP gross margin in the fourth quarter of 2024 was 45.1%
    • Adjusted EBITDA3 in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $57.1 million compared to $35.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, an increase of 62% year over year
    • Net profit in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $1.5 million
    • Net cash provided by operating activities in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $129.3 million, while capital expenditures totaled $0.5 million, leading to free cash flow of $128.8 million

    FY 2024 Financial Results

    • GMV1 for the full year was $4,858 million, an increase of 37% year over year
    • Revenue for the full year was $752.8 million, an increase of 32% year over year, of which service fees revenue was $350.3 million and fulfillment services revenue was $402.5 million
    • Non-GAAP gross profit2 for the full year was $349.4 million, an increase of 43% year over year. GAAP gross profit for the full year was $339.4 million
    • Non-GAAP gross margin2 for the full year was 46.4%, an increase of 350 basis points from 42.9% in 2023. GAAP gross margin for the full year was 45.1%
    • Adjusted EBITDA3 for the full year was $140.8 million compared to $92.7 million in 2023, an increase of 51.8% year over year
    • Net loss for the full year was $75.5 million
    • Net cash provided by operating activities in the full year was $169.4 million, while capital expenditures totaled $2.3 million, leading to free cash flow of $167.1 million

    Recent Business Highlights

    • Throughout 2024, our existing merchant base continued to stay and grow with us, as reflected in our annual enterprise NDR rate of 119% and GDR rate of 93.5%. GDR and NDR were negatively impacted by the out of the ordinary bankruptcy of Ted Baker and by several Borderfree merchants that chose not to re-platform to the Global-e platform. NDR and GDR excluding the out of the ordinary churn for 2024 is close to 123% and 97%, respectively
    • Recently launched with Logitech, one of the world’s largest and most innovative providers of computer peripherals and input devices, gaming accessories, audio and video gear and smart home device
    • On-boarded many additional new merchants located around the globe and trading in various verticals, including:
      • North America – shapewear brand Spanx, Thursday Boots, and the web store of famous fashion designer Tom Ford
      • UK and Europe – Spanish brand Tous, Italian fashion brand Slowear, UK footwear brand Phoebe Philo, German brand IvyOak, Swiss running gear brand Compressport, famous Austrian lingerie brand Triumph, French brands ZAPA and MOLLI, and the Finish brand HURTTA
      • APAC – Japanese brands Komehyo, one of Japan’s largest retailers of second-hand goods, Kyoto-based wristwatch brand Kuoe, novelty brands Mofusand and Taito, and the tailored shirt brand Kamakura Shirts, as well as the renowned Korean cosmetics brand Depology, and Australian fashion brands Zoe Kratzmann and SECONDLEFT
    • Expanded to new lanes with existing merchants – added Romania and Croatia to the markets we operate for Adidas, went live with a new outlet site for John Smedley, and added Strellson, the third brand to go live with us out of the Swiss Holy Fashion Group
    • Shopify Managed Markets – continued joint work with Shopify to add new features and functionalities to the Managed Markets offering, aimed at making it applicable to a wider range of merchants on the Shopify platform

    Q1 2025 and Full Year Outlook

    Global-e is introducing first quarter and full year guidance as follows:

        Q12025   FY 2025
        (in millions)
    GMV(1) $1,210 – $1,250   $6,190 – $6,490
    Revenue $184.5 – $191.5   $917 – $967
    Adjusted EBITDA(3) $29.5 – $33.5   $179 – $199

    1 Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) is a key operating metric. See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Key Operating Metrics” for additional information regarding this metric.
    2 Non-GAAP Gross profit and Non-GAAP gross margin are non-GAAP financial measures. See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Key Operating Metrics” for additional information regarding this metric.
    3 Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP financial measure. See “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for additional information regarding this metric, including the reconciliations to Operating Profit (Loss), its most directly comparable GAAP financial measure. The Company is unable to provide a reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to Operating Profit (Loss), its most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, on a forward-looking basis without unreasonable effort because items that impact this GAAP financial measure are not within the Company’s control and/or cannot be reasonably predicted. These items may include, but are not limited to, share-based compensation expenses. Such information may have a significant, and potentially unpredictable impact on the Company’s future financial results.

    Conference Call Information

    Global-e will host a conference call at 8:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, February 19, 2025.
    The call will be available, live, to interested parties by dialing:

    United States/Canada Toll Free:  1-800-717-1738
    International Toll: 1-646-307-1865

    A live webcast will also be available in the Investor Relations section of Global-e’s website at: https://investors.global-e.com/news-events/events-presentations

    Approximately two hours after completion of the live call, an archived version of the webcast will be available on the Investor Relations section of the Company’s web site and will remain available for approximately 30 calendar days.

    Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Key Operating Metrics

    To supplement Global-e’s financial information presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States of America, or GAAP, Global-e considers certain financial measures and key performance metrics that are not prepared in accordance with GAAP including:

    • Non-GAAP gross profit, which Global-e defines as gross profit adjusted for amortization of acquired intangibles. Non-GAAP gross margin is calculated as Non-GAAP gross profit divided by revenues
    • Adjusted EBITDA, which Global-e defines as operating profit (loss) adjusted for stock-based compensation expenses, depreciation and amortization, commercial agreements amortization, amortization of acquired intangibles and merger related contingent consideration.
    • Free cash flow, which Global-e defines as net cash provided by operating activities less purchase of property and equipment.

    Global-e also uses Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) as a key operating metric. Gross Merchandise Value or GMV is defined as the combined amount we collect from the shopper and the merchant for all components of a given transaction, including products, duties and taxes and shipping.

    The aforementioned key performance indicators and non-GAAP financial measures are used, in conjunction with GAAP measures, by management and our board of directors to assess our performance, including the preparation of Global-e’s annual operating budget and quarterly forecasts, for financial and operational decision-making, to evaluate the effectiveness of Global-e’s business strategies, and as a means to evaluate period-to-period comparisons. These measures are frequently used by analysts, investors and other interested parties to evaluate companies in our industry. We believe that these non-GAAP financial measures are appropriate measures of operating performance because they remove the impact of certain items that we believe do not directly reflect our core operations, and permit investors to view performance using the same tools that we use to budget, forecast, make operating and strategic decisions, and evaluate historical performance.

    Global-e’s definition of Non-GAAP measures may differ from the definition used by other companies and therefore comparability may be limited. In addition, other companies may not publish these metrics or similar metrics. Furthermore, these metrics have certain limitations in that they do not include the impact of certain expenses that are reflected in our consolidated statement of operations that are necessary to run our business. Thus, Non-GAAP measures should be considered in addition to, not as substitutes for, or in isolation from, measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.

    For more information on the non-GAAP financial measures, please see the reconciliation tables provided below. The accompanying reconciliation tables have more details on the GAAP financial measures that are most directly comparable to non-GAAP financial measures and the related reconciliations between these financial measures.

    Cautionary Note Regarding Forward Looking Statements

    This press release contains estimates and forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. We intend such forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements as contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, statements regarding our future strategy and projected revenue, GMV, Adjusted EBITDA and other future financial and operational results, growth strategy and plans and objectives of management for future operations, including, among others, expansion in new and existing markets, the launch of large enterprise merchants, and our ongoing partnership with Shopify, are forward-looking statements. As the words “may,” “might,” “will,” “could,” “would,” “should,” “expect,” “plan,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “target,” “seek,” “believe,” “estimate,” “predict,” “potential,” “continue,” “contemplate,” “possible” or the negative of these terms or other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, though not all forward-looking statements use these words or expressions. Forward-looking statements are predictions, projections and other statements about future events that are based on current expectations and assumptions and, as a result, are subject to risks and uncertainties. Global-e believes there is a reasonable basis for its expectations and beliefs, but they are inherently uncertain. Many factors could cause actual future events to differ materially from the forward-looking statements in this announcement, including but not limited to, our rapid growth and growth rates in recent periods may not be indicative of future growth; the ability to retain merchants or the GMV generated by such merchants; the ability to retain existing, and attract new merchants; our business acquisitions and ability to effectively integrate acquired businesses; our ability to anticipate merchant needs or develop or acquire new functionality or enhance our existing platforms to meet those needs; our ability to implement and use artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies successfully; our ability to compete in our industry; our reliance on third-parties, including our ability to realize the benefits of any strategic alliances, joint ventures, or partnership arrangements and to integrate our platforms with third-party platforms; our ability to develop or maintain the functionality of our platforms, including real or perceived errors, failures, vulnerabilities, or bugs in our platforms; our history of net losses; our ability to manage our growth and manage expansion into additional markets; increased attention to ESG matters and our ability to manage such matters; our ability to accommodate increased volumes during peak seasons and events; our ability to effectively expand our marketing and sales capabilities; our expectations regarding our revenue, expenses and operations; our ability to operate internationally; our reliance on third-party services, including third-party providers of cross-docking services and third-party data centers, in our platforms and services and harm to our reputation by our merchants’ or third-party service providers’ unethical business practices; our ability to adapt to changes in mobile devices, systems, applications, or web browsers that may degrade the functionality of our platforms; our operation as a merchant of record for sales conducted using our platform; regulatory requirements and additional fees related to payment transactions through our e-commerce platforms could be costly and difficult to comply with; compliance and third-party risks related to anti-money laundering, anti-corruption, anti-bribery, regulations, economic sanctions and export control laws and import regulations and restrictions; our business’s reliance on the personal importation model; our ability to securely store personal information of merchants and shoppers; increases in shipping rates; fluctuations in the exchange rate of foreign currencies has impacted and could continue to impact our results of operations; our ability to offer high quality support; our ability to expand the number of merchants using our platforms and increase our GMV and to enhance our reputation and awareness of our platforms; our dependency on the continued use of the internet for commerce; our ability to adapt to emerging or evolving regulatory developments, changing laws, regulations, standards and technological changes related to privacy, data protection, data security and machine learning technology and generative artificial intelligence evolves; the effect of the situation in Ukraine on our business, financial condition and results of operations; our role in the fulfilment chain of the merchants, which may cause third parties to confuse us with the merchants; our ability to establish and protect intellectual property rights; and our use of open-source software which may pose particular risks to our proprietary software technologies; our dependency on our executive officers and other key employees and our ability to hire and retain skilled key personnel, including our ability to enforce non-compete agreements we enter into with our employees; litigation for a variety of claims which we may be subject to; the adoption by merchants of a direct to consumer model; our anticipated cash needs and our estimates regarding our capital requirements and our needs for additional financing; our ability to maintain our corporate culture; our ability to maintain an effective system of disclosure controls and internal control over financial reporting; our ability to accurately estimate judgments relating to our critical accounting policies; changes in tax laws or regulations to which we are subject, including the enactment of legislation implementing changes in taxation of international business activities and the adoption of other corporate tax reform policies; requirements to collect sales or other taxes relating to the use of our platforms and services in jurisdictions where we have not historically done so; global events such as war, health pandemics, climate change, macroeconomic events and the recent economic slowdown; risks relating to our ordinary shares, including our share price, the concentration of our share ownership with insiders, our status as a foreign private issuer, provisions of Israeli law and our amended and restated articles of association and actions of activist shareholders; risks related to our incorporation and location in Israel, including risks related to the ongoing war and related hostilities; and the other risks and uncertainties described in Global-e’s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2023, filed with the SEC on March 28, 2024 and other documents filed with or furnished by Global-e from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). The foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive. You should carefully consider the foregoing factors. These filings identify and address other important risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. These statements reflect management’s current expectations regarding future events and operating performance and speak only as of the date of this press release. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee that future results, levels of activity, performance and events and circumstances reflected in the forward-looking statements will be achieved or will occur. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made in this press release to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this press release or to reflect new information or the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as required by law. We may not actually achieve the plans, intentions or expectations disclosed in our forward-looking statements, and you should not place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements.

    About Global-E Online Ltd.

    Global-e (Nasdaq: GLBE) is the world’s leading platform enabling and accelerating global, Direct-To-Consumer e-commerce. The chosen partner of over 1,000 brands and retailers across the United States, EMEA and APAC, Global-e makes selling internationally as simple as selling domestically. The company enables merchants to increase the conversion of international traffic into sales by offering online shoppers in over 200 destinations worldwide a seamless, localized shopping experience. Global-e’s end-to-end e-commerce solutions combine best-in-class localization capabilities, big-data best-practice business intelligence models, streamlined international logistics and vast global e-commerce experience, enabling international shoppers to buy seamlessly online and retailers to sell to, and from, anywhere in the world. For more information, please visit: www.global-e.com.

    Investor Contact:
    Erica Mannion or Mike Funari
    Sapphire Investor Relations, LLC
    IR@global-e.com 
    +1 617-542-6180

    Press Contact:
    Sarah Schloss
    Headline Media
    Globale@headline.media 
    +1 786-233-7684 

    Global-E Online Ltd.
    CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS
    (In thousands)
     
        Period Ended  
        December 31,     December 31,  
        2023     2024  
              (Unaudited)  
    Assets                
    Current assets:                
    Cash and cash equivalents   $ 200,081     $ 250,773  
    Short-term deposits     96,939       187,322  
    Accounts receivable, net     27,841       41,171  
    Prepaid expenses and other current assets     63,967       84,613  
    Marketable securities     20,403       36,345  
    Funds receivable, including cash in banks     111,232       122,984  
    Total current assets     520,463       723,208  
    Property and equipment, net     10,236       10,440  
    Operating lease right-of-use assets     23,052       24,429  
    Long term deposits     3,552       3,786  
    Deferred contract acquisition costs, noncurrent     2,668       3,787  
    Other assets, noncurrent     4,078       4,527  
    Commercial agreement asset   192,721       66,527  
    Goodwill     367,566       367,566  
    Intangible assets     78,024       59,212  
    Total long-term assets     681,897       540,274  
    Total assets   $ 1,202,360     $ 1,263,482  
    Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity                
    Current liabilities:                
    Accounts payable   $ 50,943     $ 79,559  
    Accrued expenses and other current liabilities     107,306       141,551  
    Funds payable to Customers     111,232       122,984  
    Short term operating lease liabilities     4,031       4,347  
    Total current liabilities     273,512       348,441  
    Long-term liabilities:                
    Deferred tax liabilities     6,507        
    Long term operating lease liabilities     19,291       20,510  
    Other long-term liabilities     1,071       1,098  
    Total liabilities   $ 300,381     $ 370,049  
                     
    Shareholders’ deficit:                
    Share capital and additional paid-in capital     1,360,250       1,425,317  
    Accumulated comprehensive income     (1,420 )     515  
    Accumulated deficit     (456,851 )     (532,399 )
    Total shareholders’ (deficit) equity     901,979       893,433  
    Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity   $ 1,202,360     $ 1,263,482  
    Global-E Online Ltd.
    CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS
    (In thousands, except share and per share data)
     
        Three Months Ended   Year Ended  
        December 31,   December 31,  
        2023     2024     2023       2024  
        (Unaudited)           (Unaudited)  
    Revenue   $ 185,401     $ 262,912     $ 569,946       $ 752,764  
    Cost of revenue     109,080       144,253       336,343         413,331  
    Gross profit     76,321       118,659       233,603         339,433  
                                     
    Operating expenses:                                
    Research and development     25,169       28,284       97,568         105,487  
    Sales and marketing     58,756       70,936       217,035         250,661  
    General and administrative     15,451       14,257       56,059         51,213  
    Total operating expenses, net     99,376       113,477       370,662         407,361  
    Operating profit (loss)     (23,055 )     5,182       (137,059 )       (67,928 )
    Financial expenses (income), net     (5,010 )     6,073       (5,262 )       11,465  
    Loss before income taxes     (18,045 )     (891 )     (131,797 )       (79,393 )
    Income tax (benefit) expenses     4,055       (2,400 )     2,008         (3,845 )
    Net profit (loss) attributable to ordinary shareholders   $ (22,100 )   $ 1,509     $ (133,805 )     $ (75,548 )
    Net profit (loss) per share attributable to ordinary shareholders, basic   $ (0.13 )   $ 0.01     $ (0.81 )     $ (0.45 )
    Net profit (loss) per share attributable to ordinary shareholders, diluted   $ (0.13 )   $ 0.01     $ (0.81 )     $ (0.45 )
    Weighted-average shares used in computing net loss per share attributable to ordinary shareholders, basic     165,626,904       168,419,800       164,353,909         167,323,350  
    Weighted-average shares used in computing net loss per share attributable to ordinary shareholders, diluted     165,626,904       175,674,929       164,353,909         167,323,350  
    Global-E Online Ltd.
    CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS
    (In thousands)
        Three Months Ended     Year Ended
        December 31,     December 31,
        2023     2024     2023     2024  
        (Unaudited)             (Unaudited)  
    Operating activities                                
    Net profit (loss)   $ (22,100 )   $ 1,509     $ (133,805 )   $ (75,548 )
    Adjustments to reconcile net profit (loss) to net cash provided by operating activities:                                
    Depreciation and amortization     489       547       1,788       2,131  
    Share-based compensation expenses     12,180       9,538       44,960       39,158  
    Commercial agreement asset     37,433       37,433       150,451       148,594  
    Amortization of intangible assets     5,091       4,402       20,434       18,812  
    Unrealized loss (gain) on foreign currency     (3,011 )     3,554       (1,901 )     4,468  
    Changes in accrued interest and exchange rate on short-term deposits     72       (1,373 )     (416 )     (1,329 )
    Changes in accrued interest and exchange rate on long-term deposits     (144 )     364       (255 )     200  
    Accounts receivable     (14,390 )     15,925       (11,417 )     (13,330 )
    Prepaid expenses and other assets     61       (24,164 )     (11,736 )     (18,019 )
    Funds receivable     (9,038 )     8,726       (11,074 )     (3,205 )
    Long-term receivables     (1,497 )     51       (339 )   551  
    Funds payable to customers     40,817       2,564       33,107       11,752  
    Operating lease ROU assets     786       991       3,230       3,691  
    Deferred contract acquisition costs     (772 )     (322 )     (1,207 )     (1,382 )
    Accounts payable     18,438       37,176       (1,277 )     28,617  
    Accrued expenses and other liabilities     25,345       35,945       30,625       34,272  
    Deferred taxes     3,635       (2,592 )     120       (6,507 )
    Operating lease liabilities     99       (987 )     (3,067 )     (3,533 )
    Net cash provided by operating activities     93,494       129,287       108,222       169,393  
    Investing activities                                
    Investment in marketable securities     (851 )     (18,331 )     (3,728 )     (21,128 )
    Proceeds from marketable securities       2,028         671       4,988  
    Investment in short-term deposits     (43,250 )     (77,848 )     (175,237 )     (269,601 )
    Proceeds from short-term deposits     34,318       22,298       125,068       180,548  
    Purchases of long-term investments     (4 )     (307 )     (82 )     (1,459 )
    Proceeds from long-term deposits     10       24       10       24  
    Purchases of property and equipment     (926 )     (482 )     (1,741)       (2,335 )
    Net cash used in investing activities     (10,703 )     (72,618 )     (55,039 )     (108,963 )
    Financing activities                                
    Proceeds from exercise of Warrants to ordinary shares         3       22     5  
    Proceeds from exercise of share options     244       1,632       1,969       3,271  
    Net cash provided by financing activities     244       1,635       1,991       3,276  
    Exchange rate differences on balances of cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash     3,011       (3,554 )     1,901       (4,468 )
    Net Increase in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash     86,046       54,750       57,075       59,238  
    Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash—beginning of period     182,551       273,086       211,522       268,597  
    Cash and cash equivalents and restricted cash—end of period   $ 268,597     $ 327,835     $ 268,597     $ 327,835  
    Global-E Online Ltd.
    SELECTED OTHER DATA
    (In thousands)
     
        Three Months Ended     Year Ended  
        December 31,     December 31,  
        2023     2024     2023     2024  
        (Unaudited)     (Unaudited)  
    Key performance metrics            
    Gross Merchandise Value     1,189,467               1,712,903               3,557,444               4,857,970          
    Adjusted EBITDA (a)     35,178               57,102               92,735               140,767          
                                                                     
    Revenue by Category                                                                
    Service fees     89,936       49 %     117,268       45 %     262,255       46 %     350,311       47 %
    Fulfillment services     95,465       51 %     145,644       55 %     307,692       54 %     402,453       53 %
    Total revenue   $ 185,401       100 %   $ 262,912       100 %   $ 569,946       100 %   $ 752,764       100 %
                                                                     
    Revenue by merchant outbound region                                                                
    United States     94,887       51 %     146,250       56 %     285,619       50 %     399,596       53 %
    United Kingdom     54,962       30 %     55,807       21 %     173,584       30 %     182,904       24 %
    European Union     29,421       16 %     44,469       17 %     92,566       16 %     125,547       17 %
    Israel     479       0 %     1,671       1 %     1,806       0 %     2,746       0 %
    Other   5,652     3 %     14,715       5 %   16,371     3 %     41,971       6 %
    Total revenue   $ 185,401       100 %   $ 262,912       100 %   $ 569,946       100 %   $ 752,764       100 %

    (a) See reconciliation to adjusted EBITDA table

    Global-E Online Ltd.
    RECONCILIATION TO Non-GAAP GROSS PROFIT
    (In thousands)
     
        Three Months Ended     Year Ended  
        December 31,     December 31,  
        2023     2024     2023     2024  
      (Unaudited)
    Gross Profit     76,321       118,659       233,603       339,433  
                                     
    Amortization of acquired intangibles included in cost of revenue     2,796       2,198       11,183       9,994  
    Non-GAAP gross profit     79,117       120,857       244,786       349,427  
    Global-E Online Ltd.
    RECONCILIATION TO ADJUSTED EBITDA
    (In thousands)
     
        Three Months Ended     Year Ended  
        December 31,     December 31,  
        2023     2024     2023     2024    
        (Unaudited)  
    Operating profit (loss)     (23,055 )     5,182       (137,059 )     (67,928 )  
    (1) Stock-based compensation:                                
    Cost of revenue     186       275       639       929    
    Research and development     6,962       4,153       26,266       17,291    
    Selling and marketing     1,238       1,528       4,259       5,836    
    General and administrative     3,794       3,582       13,796       15,102    
    Total stock-based compensation     12,180       9,538       44,960       39,158    
                                     
    (2) Depreciation and amortization     489       547       1,788       2,131    
                                     
    (3) Commercial agreement asset amortization   37,433       37,433     150,451       148,594    
                                 
    (4) Amortization of acquired intangibles   5,091       4,402     20,434       18,812    
                                 
    (5) Merger related contingent consideration   3,040           12,161          
                                 
    Adjusted EBITDA     35,178       57,102       92,735       140,767    
    Global-E Online Ltd.
    RECONCILIATION TO FREE CASH FLOW
    (In thousands)
        Three Months Ended   Year Ended
        December 31,   December 31,
        2023     2024     2023     2024  
      (Unaudited)
    Net cash provided by operating activities     93,434       129,287       108,222       169,393  
    Less:                          
    Purchase of property and equipment     (926 )     (482 )     (1,741 )     (2,335 )
    Free cash flow     92,508       128,805       106,481       167,058  

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI: Canadian Consumer Debt Continues to Grow Despite Macroeconomic Relief

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    Key findings from TransUnion report:

    • Despite stabilization of macroeconomic conditions, total consumer debt and delinquency rates continue to rise
    • Gen Z consumers continue to drive credit market activity
    • Credit card balances hit new milestone of $124 billion and delinquency rates rise even as average monthly card spend declines

    TORONTO, Feb. 19, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Total consumer debt in Canada hit a historic high of $2.5 trillion as outstanding balances across all credit products grew by 4.5% year-over-year (YoY) in Q4 2024, according to TransUnion’s Q4 2024 Credit Industry Insights Report (CIIR). Balances grew due to a combination of increases in both mortgage debt and non-mortgage debt. Non-mortgage debt increased 5.8% YoY with balances continuing to rise across revolving products in Q4 2024. Line of credit balances grew 4.2%, while credit card balances continued a more rapid pace of growth, increasing 9.2%. Although the rate of growth has been slowing, the overall increase remains significant.

    Credit participation grew by 2.5% YoY, with 32.3 million Canadians holding at least one open credit product, a trend fueled in part by the recent decline in interest rates and inflation. Millennial and Gen Z consumers were at the forefront of this increase, collectively holding $1.1 trillion in outstanding balances, a 10% rise YoY. Gen Z consumers were the fastest-growing segment, with a 29% increase in credit participation as they diversify their debt beyond credit card debt.

    Canada Consumer Credit Index Hits Lowest Level Since 2021

    The Canada Consumer Credit Index fell YoY to 99.8 in Q4 2024, its lowest December level since 2020. The decline indicates a deterioration in the overall health of the Canadian retail credit market, reflecting declining consumer behaviours and weakening market conditions. Although all elements of the index were lower than the prior years’ values, slowing balances, declining demand and continued increase in delinquency rates were the strongest drivers of the decline.

    Credit Card Market Growth Slowing

    Credit card balances continued to grow, marking 31 months of consecutive YoY balance growth. However, this growth has moderated in recent quarters, indicating a stabilization in the market may be expected in 2025.

    Bankcard originations trended lower in recent quarters, though totals remained elevated in comparison to pre-2018 levels. The recent decline in origination totals was seen across most risk tiers, with subprime leading the decline, influenced by the decrease in new Canadians entering the market after a significant reduction in immigration volume.

    In an effort to manage delinquency rates, lenders have become more conservative within their risk tier targets at origination. Overall, bankcard originations dropped by 3.7% YoY, with the largest decline led by subprime at 6.9% YoY, while prime and near prime consumers grew by 3.7% and 0.4% respectively. The risk mix of originated bankcard accounts and credit lines remains consistent with 2018 and 2019 levels, indicating market moderation, metric stabilization and reversion to more familiar business cycles.

    Originations growth fell across all generations. Gen Z showed the least year-over-year impact, remaining relatively flat at a decline of only 0.1% from prior year as more young adults in this generation continue to enter the credit market each year. The remaining generations saw a significant drop off from prior years, as demand in these groups for additional credit may have waned as the economy improved.

    Year-over-Year Card Origination by Generation
      Q3’22 – Q3’23 Q3’23 – Q3’24
    Baby Boomer 6.2%   -9.0%  
    Gen X 9.3%   -6.8%  
    Gen Y/Millennial 11.6%   -2.9%  
    Gen Z 28.5%   -0.1%  

    Lower inflation in recent quarters, combined with continued employment resiliency for consumers, may be driving consumers towards an improved financial health, where they balance their monthly expenses and monthly budgets. Reduced lender appetite may also play a role in this slowdown, resulting in a decrease in new credit card originations. However, despite the slowing of originations, credit card balance growth remained strong, up 9% YoY, though below the previous year’s 13% growth. The growth fueled a new balance milestone of $124 billion in Q4 2024. This was driven by higher revolving balances as consumers paid down a smaller portion of their balances. Approximately 64% of outstanding balances were revolving in Q4 2024 (+157 bp YoY) indicating that consumers are increasingly carrying balances on their cards from month to month.

    Average credit card debt per borrower hit $4,681 in Q4, but has also been slowing relative to prior years, with average debt per borrower rising 6.0% YoY in Q4 2024 as opposed to 7.2% the year prior. Prime and below risk segments are increasingly tapping into their available credit, highlighting potential pockets of growing financial needs and a greater dependence on revolving debt to cover daily expenses.

    Despite positive economic indicators, including lower interest rates boosting home-related purchases, ongoing economic uncertainty, and high prices for goods and services have continued to weigh on consumer spending decisions. There has been a corresponding drop-off in average monthly card spend, which fell 2.6% from prior year. Overall pressure on consumers related to the higher costs of living and lower savings rates contributed to a rise in bankcard delinquency rates. Bankcard serious consumer-level delinquency levels, defined as 90 or more days past due (DPD), continued to climb higher to 0.93% in Q2 2024, up 9 bps YoY.

    “In an environment where new account growth is slowing, credit card issuers need to focus on optimizing account management strategies,” said Matthew Fabian, director of financial services research and consulting at TransUnion Canada. “Strengthening customer loyalty, fostering prudent balance growth and engaging younger consumers to enhance lifetime value are crucial. Equally important is vigilant monitoring for early warning signs of rising delinquencies.”

    Credit Card Lending Metric (Bankcard) Q4 2024 Q4 2023 Q4 2022
    Number of Credit Cards (millions) 50.8 47.6 44.5
    New Card Originations (millions)* 1.8 1.9 1.7
    Average New Card Credit Limit* $5,963 $5,771 $5,688
    Total Credit Card Balances (Market) in $ billions $124.7 $114.2 $100.9
    Average Card Balance per Consumer $4,681 $4,430 $4,076
    Average Credit Limit Per Consumer $19,124 $17,973 $16,969
    Average Monthly Spend $2,136 $2,193 $2,137
    Consumer-Level Delinquency Rate (90+ DPD) 0.93% 0.84% 0.75%

    * Acquisition results are presented one quarter in arrears

    Non-Bankcard Delinquencies Also Increase Despite Economic Improvements

    The current economic landscape is unique in that, despite relatively stable employment, there has been a rise in consumer loan delinquency rates. Solid employment has been offset by high interest rates that have put pressure on consumer wallets.

    Overall serious consumer delinquency continues to rise on a year-over-year basis, up 16 basis points to 1.83% and reaching a five-year high, back on par with the pre-pandemic levels. From a demographic perspective, Gen Z consumers are driving high delinquency rates with delinquencies up YoY 26 bps to 2.74% in Q4 2024. Gen Z credit consumers generally have lower risk scores as they are new to credit and have a shorter lending history. They may also be feeling a greater impact from inflation and the high cost of living, which may strain their budgets. Lenders will need to continue applying advanced analytics to grow and retain this segment, as Gen Z will remain a growing proportion of new credit consumers over the next few years and ultimately will become core credit consumers throughout their lifecycle.


    YoY Growth in delinquency by Cohort and Risk Segment

    Q4 2023 – Q4 2024 (bps)
      Baby Boomer Gen X Millennial Gen Z
    Subprime 91 134 114 189
    Near Prime 11 12 9 14
    Prime 3 4 2 1

    “As the Canadian credit market expands, Gen Z consumers present a significant growth opportunity for lenders, especially through tailored credit card offerings,” Fabian said. “Gen Z are educated and active credit users with a growing propensity to utilize credit throughout their lifecycle. Early management is crucial, as credit cards can be a valuable financial tool for Gen Z when managed responsibly. By implementing strategies such as education and regular credit monitoring, credit cards can become an asset rather than a financial burden for Gen Z consumers, creating loyalty to lenders who provide those services.”

    ** All data is sourced from the TransUnion Canada consumer credit database.

    About TransUnion®(NYSE: TRU)

    TransUnion is a global information and insights company with over 13,000 associates operating in more than 30 countries, including Canada, where we’re the credit bureau of choice for the financial services ecosystem and most of Canada’s largest banks. We make trust possible by ensuring each person is reliably represented in the marketplace. We do this by providing an actionable view of consumers, stewarded with care.

    Through our acquisitions and technology investments we have developed innovative solutions that extend beyond our strong foundation in core credit into areas such as marketing, fraud, risk and advanced analytics. As a result, consumers and businesses can transact with confidence and achieve great things. We call this Information for Good® — and it leads to economic opportunity, great experiences and personal empowerment for millions of people around the world.

    For more information visit: www.transunion.ca

    For more information or to request an interview, contact:

    Contact: Katie Duffy
    E-mail: katie.duffy@ketchum.com 
    Telephone: +1 647-772-0969

    A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/f4b9eec1-e70c-45bf-8e6d-7144f3adbf3d

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Building Resilience in Education Systems

    Source: Asia Development Bank

    In 2022, a flood in Bangladesh shut down 5,000 schools, disrupting the education of 1.5 million students. The COVID-19 pandemic forced school closures across Asia for more than a year, causing significant learning losses and reducing students’ future earning potential. As disasters, conflicts, and other crises become more frequent and severe, education systems must develop strategies to minimize their impact.

    Building Resilience in Education Systems presents 13 chapters on strengthening education system resilience, written specifically for policy makers and practitioners. The book examines diverse contexts, the sources of school disruptions, and key lessons learned. Featuring insights from Asia, Africa, and Latin America, it underscores that while solutions will vary by country, every nation can leverage its resources to build a more resilient education system.

    “In a world where greater unpredictability is what is most predictable, this volume is timely. The losses from the recent disruptions to education systems can be lessened if the world learns from them what has worked and what has not—and why. This volume brings together an excellent set of rigorously prepared chapters that will facilitate this learning.”

    — Emmanuel Jimenez 
    Director General, Independent Evaluation Department, Asian Development Bank

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Cisco displays versatility in collaboration at Cisco Live Amsterdam 2025, says GlobalData

    Source: GlobalData

    Cisco displays versatility in collaboration at Cisco Live Amsterdam 2025, says GlobalData

    Posted in Technology

    Cisco Systems (Cisco) announced new capabilities for collaboration targeting hybrid work, contact centers, and devices at Cisco Live Amsterdam 2025. They demonstrate Cisco’s ability to address the evolving needs of organizations in a changing technology landscape, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

    Gregg Willsky, Principal Analyst, Enterprise Technology & Services at GlobalData, says: “Cisco continues to aggressively strengthen its hybrid work, contact center, and device capabilities. Collectively the announced features make employees more productive and allow organizations to raise customer satisfaction by delivering a better customer experience.”

    Cisco has already established itself as a premier vendor for enhancing hybrid work with AI-driven tools and has long cultivated an engineering mindset resulting in products that demonstrate real ingenuity. The round of announcements at Cisco Live Amsterdam 2025 only serves to further cement that position. They support the mantra adopted by Cisco and its rivals – to make workers more productive.

    Willsky adds: “The announcements addressing the contact center are also significant. Lately, contact centers have been undergoing a profound transformation with the concept of a ‘contact center’ yielding to the broader concept of ‘customer experience’. With the capabilities unveiled at the event, Cisco continues to help organizations make the transition while supporting the needs of both agents and supervisors.”

    The prominence Cisco has placed on the device experience is a key differentiator. The overarching theme of Cisco’s device strategy is not to merely provide technology, but instead to drive simple, inclusive experiences through technology. Cisco recognizes that devices support reimagined office designs that are meeting-oriented and let workers communicate and collaborate from anywhere.

    Willsky concludes: “Cisco is riding the winds of change that have swept across team collaboration platforms. The COVID-19 pandemic drove the ascent of these platforms, and competitors responded with successive rounds of feature wars. Cooler heads eventually prevailed, and a ‘truce’ was issued in the form of interoperability between rival platforms. Now, things have come full circle to a degree with competitors reaching deep into the AI ‘treasure trove’ and circulating AI features platform wide. Cisco is seeking to separate itself from the pack by touting AI innovations across both Webex software and hardware. Coupled with long-standing expertise in collaboration, networking, and security, Cisco enjoys a unique competitive position.”

    MIL OSI Economics