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  • MIL-OSI Global: US election: Trump declares victory – ‘There’s never been anything like this’

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

    This is a rolling guide to articles and audio published by The Conversation in the immediate run-up to and aftermath of the election, with some explainers about the process. This page is updated from the top, so older references are moved down the page.

    The United States has made its choice. At just before 8am GMT (3am Florida time) Donald Trump took to the stage at the West Palm Beach convention center and claimed victory for the Republican Party. His declaration came minutes after it was announced he was going to win in the key state of Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral college votes.

    He thanked a large crowd of his adoring supporters, saying: “This was a movement like nobody’s ever seen before, and frankly, this was, I believe, the greatest political movement of all time. There’s never been anything like this in this country, and maybe beyond.”

    It’s been a turbulent four months since outgoing president Joe Biden announced he was terminating his bid for a second term and the battlelines between the two candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were drawn. Soon we will know who will lead the US for the next four years.

    From here, with the help of some of the sharpest analysts of US politics, we’ll keep you updated and informed as the situation develops.

    Dafydd Townley, teaching fellow in international security at University of Portsmouth, has written an overview of how the election went down, with turnout looking high and no major incidents of violence, despite what look like numerous bomb hoaxes with possible Russian origins.

    Turnout has been impressive and initial speculation is that Trump has surpassed his rural support from 2020 while Democrat Kamala Harris only matched the suburban numbers that Biden achieved four years ago. NBC exit polls also showed Trump had more support from voters under 30 than any Republican candidate since 2008.



    Read more:
    Trump takes first swing states after voting passes peacefully

    The US has moved to the right

    Natasha Lindstaedt says that academics and pundits got the polls badly wrong in 2024.

    The polls were right – he had a lot more strength [than we all thought]. We thought the polls were seriously underestimating Kamala Harris and that she was doing far better than they were predicting, when they said it was a knife edge. But it turns out they were underestimating Trump.

    The US has moved to the right. The abortion bill wasn’t overturned in Florida, Ted Cruz won by ten points in Texas, a state that we thought might be competitive. We thought with this Iowa poll that Harris might be more competitive with white voters. It’s been a great night for Trump and an absolute disaster for the Democrats.

    She said that many people following the campaign thought that women were going to turn out and that would make the difference. But in fact it didn’t.

    Trump gained a lot more than he had in 2020 – probably due to nostalgia of what his administration was like, looking at it through rose-coloured glasses, forgetting the chaos and all the upheaval he created himself. Now he’s going to inherit a great economy – and he’s going to take credit for it.

    Trump wins Pennsylvania, declares victory

    Donald Trump claimed victory in the 2024 presidential election. It followed hot on the heels of the networks announcing he had won the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Richard Hargy says the state has played an important part in the whole campaign, he says.

    It was in Butler, Pennsylvania, last July, where Trump survived an assassination attempt during a campaign rally after a gunman opened fire from a nearby rooftop.

    The Trump victory in Pennsylvania was greatly helped by the world’s richest man, Elon Musk’s intercession into the presidential election. He financed a multi-billion dollar door-knocking operation across the state and held events in support of Donald Trump.

    On Monday a Pennsylvania judge had ruled that a $1-million-a-day voter sweepstake organised by Musk was legal and could continue into Tuesday’s election.

    When will we know the result?

    To get an idea of the scale of the task of counting votes, take a look at the below map of the US colour-coded by poll closing times. How long the count could take is anyone’s guess at this stage. Each state has its own rules.

    Ahead of the polls closing Richard Hargy, an expert in US politics from Queen’s University Belfast, wrote a guide to the process, when the votes are counted and when we might start to see results.



    Read more:
    US election: what time do the polls close and when will the results be known? An expert explains

    Delays are baked into the process, such as Pennsylvania, which doesn’t allow votes cast before election day or ballots posted in to be counted until polls close, which was at 8pm (1am GMT).

    So we’ll just have to be patient. In the mean time, you can also read Hargy’s explainer on the “electoral college” system, which can mean that the candidate with the most votes may not win the presidency.



    Read more:
    US election: how does the electoral college voting system work?

    Early voting and what it might mean

    Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at University College Dublin, believes that in a cliffhanger election, a clue to the outcome may be in the size of turnout. More than 80 million Americans voted early – around half of the total turnout in 2020 and around one-third of the eligible electorate.

    The 80 million figure takes on added significance with the recognition that it is not that distant from the 104 million who participated early in the “pandemic” election four years ago. And that 2020 ballot, with 158.4 million votes and almost 67% participation, was the largest turnout since 1900.

    Who does that favour? Probably Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. Trumpists will turn out for their man come hell or high water. The large question mark has been whether potential Harris voters would sit on their hands, whether from lack of enthusiasm or dissatisfaction on issues such as Israel’s open-ended war on Gaza.

    Any prediction in this election is a risk. But it might be worth setting a marker: if turnout matches or exceeds the record set in 2020, Kamala Harris could be on the way to the White House.

    Tense moment for the US

    During the campaign there have been two assassination attempts on former president Trump as well as arson attacks on ballot boxes and ballots damaged. In Arizona the Democratic party was forced to close one of its offices after it had been shot at three times.

    Dafydd Townley, a fellow in international security at Portsmouth University, believes that there could be a reluctance to accept the result and that this could result in further disturbances. He has written about how much violence there has been during this campaign.



    Read more:
    US election: officials are issued with panic buttons as attacks on ballot boxes continue

    Dafyyd Townley comments on post-election violence.

    How race has played into the campaign

    Rhianna Garrett, PhD researcher and global coordinator of the critical mixed race studies executive board at Loughborough University, says that Trump’s campaign has been “littered with attempts to weaponise” the multiracial heritage of his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris.

    Much of this has been a dog-whistle attempt to stir up his own base, partly with fairly blatant appeals to latent feelings of racism, but also as a tool to position Harris as deceiving and untrustworthy by apparently blurring and shifting her own background.

    In August, not long after Harris took over the Democrat ticket from Biden, Trump appeared at the National Association of Black Journalists conference when he wrongfully claimed that Harris was changing her identity, stating: “I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black, and now she wants to be known as Black, So I don’t know. Is she Indian or is she Black?”.

    For her part, Harris’s campaign has also used her multiracial heritage to further their political agendas. On the White House website, she is described as “the first woman, the first Black American, and the first South Asian American” to hold a vice-presidential position, which has effectively attempted to position her as a winner. Harris herself has also foregrounded “race” on her campaign website. In attempt to attack Trump’s campaign, she strategically aims to promote Black and Latino men specifically, as well as women’s rights. These are key voter groups she has aimed to mobilise through identity politics.

    Trump and winning male voters

    Donald Trump widened his appeal to male voters in this election, with polling indicating that he was picking up more support from Black and Latino men, as well as more young men more widely.

    One reason for this may be that in 2024 young men are more conservative than any other group in the US. Another reason why gender has become a divisive issue is the overturning of Roe v Wade, the legal case that gave American women abortion rights.

    Read more on the gender divide in this article from Natasha Lindstaedt, a professor of government at Essex University.



    Read more:
    US election: why more men and fewer white women say they will vote for Trump

    A free speech campaign?

    Julie Posetti, professor of journalism at City St George’s, University of London, and global director of research at the International Center for Journalists, recently conducted a survey of more than 1,000 Americans on their attitudes to the press.

    Breaking down the results, they were able to build a picture of what people in the US think of targeting journalists for criticism and even abuse. You can read all about the study here.



    Read more:
    New survey finds an alarming tolerance for attacks on the press in the US – particularly among white, Republican men

    When Trump speaks – his supporters hear him loud and clear

    Channel 4 is showing pictures of the Trump party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, where the Maga faithful are celebrating the news that it appears that Trump has retaken Georgia in his second swing-state victory. Their idol is expected to join them soon.

    While we wait for him to speak, here’s a fascinating piece on Trump’s rhetorical style by Loren D. Marsh of the Humboldt University of Berlin. His speeches have been ridiculed by his opponents during the campaign. They say he’s unfocused, rambling and at times nonsensical. He calls it the “weave” and says it’s genius. Marsh says that whatever you may think, it seems to work for his supporters.

    Far from being a liability or an indication he is incapable of staying on message, Trump’s “weave” may well be his intuitive rhetorical strategy, a way of taking control of the media narrative.



    Read more:
    Trump’s speeches are chaotic, rambling, and extremely effective. Aristotle can explain why

    – ref. US election: Trump declares victory – ‘There’s never been anything like this’ – https://theconversation.com/us-election-trump-declares-victory-theres-never-been-anything-like-this-241711

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump takes first swing states after voting passes peacefully

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of Portsmouth

    Donald Trump looked poised to take some key battleground states this morning as votes continue to be counted. The Republicans were also being predicted to take control of the Senate.

    North Carolina with its 16 electoral college votes was called for Trump in the early hours of the morning, and another key east coast state, Georgia and its 16 electoral college votes, was also predicted to have been gained by Trump. Trump won other major states, from Iowa to Texas, with a strong showing at the polls.

    As well as this, Republicans have taken back control of the Senate as they were forecast to, after Democrats lost their slender lead. If Trump is victorious, this will provide him with the congressional support he needs to get his appointees ratified and pass laws without obstruction.

    Turnout has been impressive and initial speculation is that Trump has surpassed his rural support from 2020 while Democrat Kamala Harris only matched the suburban numbers that Biden achieved four years ago. NBC exit polls also showed Trump had more support from voters under 30 than any Republican candidate since 2008.

    The BBC reported that early exit polls indicated that voters were most concerned with the state of the democracy (35%) with the economy coming a close second (31%).

    These concerns have led to a turnout that will be just below the 2020 figures, according to Professor Michael McDonald, of the University of Florida.

    In too-close-to-call battleground state Pennsylvania, it was reported that voters were queueing in their hundreds over an hour before the polls opened at 7am.

    In Michigan, another key state in the election, officials said that those voters who had voted early – both the absentee and in-person votes – numbered almost as many as the total votes for the 2020 election.

    Michigan’s Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, said that the state was “on pace to see another high turnout election with voters all across the state enthusiastic and engaged”. And much of it was done in a good atmosphere with election chairperson Jennifer Jenkins telling reporters that it was “good vibes all around”.

    Safety concerns

    Concerns about whether election day would pass peacefully have not kept voters away.

    As revealed in a memo obtained by the non-partisan group, Property of the People, the Department of Homeland Security had issued a warning in September that election infrastructure was “an attractive target for some domestic violent extremists” particularly those with “election-related grievances” who seek to disrupt the democratic process and election operations.

    In the nation’s capital, Washington DC, police arrested a man who was stopped during the screening process at the US Capitol visitor centre. Authorities stated that he smelled like gasoline and had a torch lighter, flare gun and papers he intended to deliver to Congress.

    Capitol Police Chief J. Thomas Manger, speaking at a press conference shortly after the incident, stated that “there is no indication right now that it had anything to do with the election”.

    The greatest threat to the smooth running of the election on polling day seemed not to come from domestic perpetrators but from foreign interference, particularly in the crucial swing state races.

    Several polling stations in Georgia, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin were the victims of hoax bomb threats that caused temporary closures of the sites. The threats were believed to be sent by emails that were traced back to Russian email domains.

    In Navajo County in Arizona, four polling stations were the target of bomb threats. Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes told reporters that election officials in the state had “no reason to believe that any of our voters or any of our polling places are in any sort of jeopardy.”

    “We also have reason to believe, although I won’t get into specifics, that this comes from one of our foreign enemies, namely Russia,” he continued.

    In Pennsylvania, Governor Josh Shapiro announced at a press conference that there had been multiple bomb threats at polling stations and municipal centres across the state.

    Shapiro, who was at one time thought of as a potential running mate for Harris, revealed that “state and local law enforcement – along with the FBI – are investigating these threats and thus far, there is no credible threat to the public”.

    This came after reports emerged of at least ten polling locations in Philadelphia and in surrounding areas were sent a bomb threat via email at 6pm local time.

    Republican Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger accused Russia of being the cause of the threats aimed at polling locations in the southern state. “They don’t want us to have a smooth, fair and accurate election, and if they can get us to fight among ourselves, they can count that as a victory,” he told reporters.

    The FBI stated that it was aware of the threats and that many appeared “to originate from Russian email domains”. The Russian embassy in Washington denied the threats.

    Last Thursday, Georgia was also the subject of what the US intelligence community called a disinformation campaign designed to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election result through an online video that “depicted individuals claiming to be from Haiti and voting illegally in multiple counties in Georgia”.

    Researchers at Clemson University in South Carolina identified the work as being that of Russian disinformation group Storm-1516. Darren Linvill of Clemson University, stated that Russian group had “turned their focus squarely on the US election.”

    And the integrity of this election took a further hit when Republican candidate Donald Trump made unfounded accusations on social media platform Truth Social of election fraud in Philadelphia, a must-win state for the former president.

    Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner said through a spokesperson that “the only talk about massive cheating has come from one of the candidates, Donald J. Trump. There is no factual basis whatsoever within law enforcement to support this wild allegation”.

    Experts have warned that such campaigns could give momentum to accusations that the election is not legitimate and that this, in turn, could trigger post-election violence.

    As the results come in, America holds it breath that any potential transition of power will be more peaceful than four years ago.

    Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump takes first swing states after voting passes peacefully – https://theconversation.com/trump-takes-first-swing-states-after-voting-passes-peacefully-242716

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mosquito season in southern Africa: tonic water and vitamins won’t protect you but knowing where the hotspots are will

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Shüné Oliver, Medical scientist, National Institute for Communicable Diseases

    While the emergence of colourful butterflies is a welcome sign of summer, the constant buzzing of mosquitoes is an annoying part of the season.

    Mosquitoes are more than just pests. They are the world’s most dangerous animal. Their presence signals the start of the malaria season in southern Africa.

    It is for this reason that the Southern African Development Community recognises the first week of November as SADC Malaria Week, with 6 November as SADC Malaria Day.

    During this week the dangers of malaria are highlighted. As South Africa edges closer towards malaria elimination, this has become more important as many South Africans are unaware of the malaria risk within the country’s borders.



    Read more:
    The seven steps South Africa is taking to get it closer to eliminating malaria

    Know your enemy

    Malaria is usually spread through a bite of an infected female Anopheles mosquito. In rare cases, malaria can spread through blood transfusions, organ transplants or sharing contaminated needles.

    There is also the possibility that mothers can pass on the disease to their babies while pregnant or during delivery.

    Mosquitoes that spread malaria are usually only active between dusk and dawn. Some mosquitoes, particularly the large black and white Aedes mosquitoes,
    are active during the day. These mosquitoes spread diseases like yellow fever and Zika.

    Although malaria-spreading mosquitoes are active at night, they are not the mosquitoes that make the annoying buzzing sound that prevents you from getting a peaceful night’s sleep.

    Instead, malaria mosquitoes are near-silent, often referred to as silent killers. Frequently, you only realise you have been bitten when it is too late.

    Most malaria vectors tend to bite and rest outdoors. This means that you have to take extra care when outdoors.

    Know your enemy’s whereabouts

    Malaria mosquitoes require specific environmental conditions to breed and survive.

    They are found in low-lying tropical areas in most southern African countries, with the exception of Lesotho and the Seychelles. Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe have regions of high malaria risk.

    In South Africa, malaria is restricted to the low-lying border regions of northern KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Limpopo provinces.

    Before visiting any of these areas, familiarise yourself with the malaria risk map for South Africa and take the appropriate precautions.

    In the southern hemisphere, the malaria risk is particularly high over the December holidays. This is due to the warm, wet weather conditions that favour mosquito growth.

    Over the past few years, the non-endemic South African province of Gauteng has reported a high number of
    cases. This can happen in any province: there have been incidents in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape, as well as the North-West.

    Most of these cases are imported from high-risk regions within
    and outside South Africa.

    A few rare cases are the result of odyssean malaria (also known as taxi or airport malaria).

    This happens throughout Africa. It is largely associated with migration. This happens when one or more malaria-carrying mosquitoes are accidentally transported from their natural home. They can then randomly infect people outside the malaria-risk area.

    When you have an unexplained fever in summer, think malaria. This is true even if you have not travelled to a malaria-risk area.

    It is especially important if you stayed near a major transport route or transport hub. These include places such as taxi ranks or bus depots.

    Know your enemy’s gameplan

    Malaria is preventable and treatable. The odds of a complete recovery are very high if a malaria infection is detected early. This is aided by prompt treatment with effective antimalarial medication.

    Symptoms of the milder version of malaria (uncomplicated malaria) are non-specific. This can include fever, headaches, sluggishness, nausea, and muscular/joint pains.

    Loss of consciousness, convulsions, jaundice and kidney failure are associated with the more severe, life threatening form of malaria.



    Read more:
    We’re a step closer to figuring out why mosquitoes bite some people and not others

    Keep yourself safe from the enemy

    The easiest way to prevent yourself from getting malaria is to avoid being bitten by an infected mosquito.

    If outdoors during the evening, wear long-sleeved shirts, trousers and socks, and use repellents that contain at least 30% of the insect repellent DEET.

    Doors and windows should be screened. Where possible, sleep under a bednet or in an air-conditioned room.

    In addition to these non-pharmaceutical measures, you can protect yourself by taking anti-malarial medications which you can get from a pharmacy or primary healthcare clinic.

    Discuss your anti-malarial options with a healthcare professional.

    Medication that prevents malaria does not mask the symptoms of the disease.

    The recommended treatment in South Africa, artemether-lumefantrine (Coartem), is highly effective. This is the most widely used malaria treatment across Africa.

    Know the myths about the enemy

    You cannot get malaria from drinking contaminated water or eating rotten fruit.

    There is limited evidence that vitamin-enriched products or home remedies containing natural products like citronella offer any protection against malaria.

    In addition, tonic water contains a very low concentration of antimalarial ingredients. It is therefore not possible for one person to drink sufficient quantities to protect against malaria.

    Crucially, one malaria infection will not keep you safe from future infections. You can get malaria more than once.

    Finally, always be aware – although the malaria risk is higher in summer, you can also get the disease in the dry season. You could also potentially be infected in any province due to an infected travelling mosquito.

    So if you have an unexplained fever, think malaria!

    Shüné Oliver receives funding from the National Research Foundation of South Africa, South African Medical Research Council and Female Academic Leadership Fellowship. She is affiliated with the National Institute for Communicable Diseases and the Wits Research Institute for Malaria.

    Jaishree Raman receives funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, CHAI, the Global Fund, the National Institute for Communicable Disease, the National Research Foundation, the South African Medical Research Council, and the Research Trust. She is affiliated with the Wits Research Institute for Malaria and the University of Pretoria’s Institute for Sustainable Malaria Control.

    – ref. Mosquito season in southern Africa: tonic water and vitamins won’t protect you but knowing where the hotspots are will – https://theconversation.com/mosquito-season-in-southern-africa-tonic-water-and-vitamins-wont-protect-you-but-knowing-where-the-hotspots-are-will-242620

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election: how does the electoral college voting system work?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Richard Hargy, Visiting Research Fellow in International Studies, Queen’s University Belfast

    The electoral votes in swing states are likely to edge one candidate over the line. Tomas Ragina/Shutterstock

    On November 5, millions of Americans will cast their votes for president, with the vast majority deciding between Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump. This historic election, however, is not determined by a singular national poll, but rather a state-by-state contest. Many people outside the US, and some inside, do not understand how this complicated system works.

    Here are five things to know about the electoral college system:

    1. It’s not one electoral contest, but 50 separate races

    The founding fathers opted against a national popular vote where the winning candidate just has to gain a majority of votes to claim victory. They decided instead to establish an electoral college under Article II of the US Constitution.

    Under this system, voters in every US state and the District of Columbia decide the outcome of a winner-takes-all contest for their state’s electoral votes. Each state is allocated a set number of electoral votes, in line with the size of its population. For example, Texas, with a population of over 29 million, has 50 electoral votes. North Dakota, on the other hand, has a population of under 800,000 and is apportioned three.

    By securing a majority of the vote in a state, a candidate collects its allotted electoral college votes. There are 538 in total, with the winner needing at least 270 to secure the presidency (with their running-mate becoming vice-president).

    Maine and Nebraska are the only two exceptions to the winner-takes-all approach. These states also use their congressional districts to allocate some electoral college votes: two go to each state’s overall popular vote winner, while one goes to the popular vote winner in each congressional district (two districts in Maine, three in Nebraska).

    So, when Americans mark their ballot with their choice for president, this vote is technically not awarded automatically to the candidate. Rather, it goes to the individual state’s electors. These people convene across all 50 states once the election is complete, then formally send their state’s electoral votes to the US Congress. The electors are usually state election officials or prominent party members.

    Brown University professor of political science Wendy Schiller explained the choice of an electoral college system more than 200 years ago was rooted in a distrust of citizens to make a reasoned choice: “The origins of the electoral college were not supposed to reflect voter opinion at all – it was to be a gate against making a bad choice. It was an elite bulwark against popular opinion.”

    2. It can allow for unpredictable and unruly outcomes

    By its very nature, the electoral college can result in two unusual, but not improbable, scenarios. First, a candidate can win the electoral college while losing the popular vote and still become president – as happened most recently in 2000 with George W. Bush and in 2016 with Trump.

    Secondly, the system allows for a situation were neither candidate wins a majority of electoral votes. If there is a 269-269 tie, a “contingent election” is held under the 12th Amendment. In this case, members of the new House of Representatives, sworn in on January 3 2025, would choose the next president. They do not vote based on individual preference. Instead, every state delegation gets one vote, with a simple majority of 26 state delegation votes needed to decide who becomes president. This has happened only twice in presidential elections, in 1801 and 1825. The House must continue voting until a president is elected.

    A history of the electoral college system.

    3. In 2020, Trump’s supporters sought to challenge the electoral college results

    State legislators can object to their state’s general election outcome during the congressional certification. This happened in 2020 when a group of Republicans objected to results in Pennsylvania and Arizona – both won by Democrat Joe Biden. After supporters of Trump stormed the Capitol building in January 2021, protesting the official authorisation of votes, Congress updated the 1800s-era Electoral Count Act to make it harder to challenge the electoral college result.

    Following the 2020 election, certain electors in several swing states attempted to falsely declare Trump the winner. These included high-profile Republicans in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin. Trump’s campaign lawyer, Kenneth Chesebro, pleaded guilty in Georgia to his role in subverting the election.

    There are fears of a potential repeat of this scenario in 2024, should Trump lose again. Documentation returned to state election officials has revealed that over a dozen of these individuals are returning as potential electors this year.

    4. Criticism includes national security concerns and disinformation

    Some call the electorial college system undemocratic. Others point to the “faithless elector” issue, whereby the electors within a state cast their vote against the preference of their state’s popular vote.

    Small vote margins often secure all the votes in key swing states. For example, in 2016, Trump won Michigan by just 13,080 votes (0.3%), Wisconsin by 27,257 votes (1.0%), and Pennsylvania by 68,236 votes (1.2%). This allocated Trump 46 electoral votes as well as victory in the presidential election.

    This has led Brookings Institution fellows Elaine Kamarck and Darrell M. West to conclude that “false news purveyors don’t have to persuade 99% of American voters to be influential, but simply a tiny amount in [certain states] … A shift of 1% of the vote or less based on false narratives would have altered the outcome.”

    Harvard University professor of government Ryan Enos told me that foreign adversaries with an interest in the outcome of the US election are “aware of how decentralised the system is, and how chaos can be sowed by putting pressure on particular states”.

    5. Some people want to abolish it

    The process remains highly contentious and can result in a more fractious political climate. Consequently, there many who want to abolish it. West, a senior fellow of governance studies at Brookings, said the US should get rid of the electoral college. He called it a relic that was established “as an elite-based mechanism to basically choose the president because [America’s founding fathers] did not trust the general public”.

    However, Barnard College professor of political science Sheri Berman had a different view, saying that if you believe different states should have some guaranteed level of representation regardless of their population, then designing a system that gives this to them could be viewed as legitimate.

    Ultimately, despite its unusual elements, Christine Stenglein, a research analyst at Brookings, believes “the electoral college is part of the US constitution, and therefore not likely to change any time soon”.

    Richard Hargy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US election: how does the electoral college voting system work? – https://theconversation.com/us-election-how-does-the-electoral-college-voting-system-work-242283

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Midas Man: Brian Epstein biopic captures the complexity that made the Beatles manager so brilliant

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Glenn Fosbraey, Associate Dean of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Winchester

    A few minutes after I took my seat at an advanced screening of Amazon Prime’s Brian Epstein biopic, Midas Man, I found myself engaged in Beatles chat with the chap next to me. I wasn’t surprised to find a fellow Fab Four fanatic at such an event. But I was surprised when I realised I was speaking with the legendary presenter Paul Gambaccini, a man who, I was soon to discover, met not only John, Paul, George and Ringo, but also original drummer Pete Best and bassist Stuart Sutcliffe’s sister. Or “five and a half Beatles”, as he put it.

    As the lights went down and we readied ourselves, Gambaccini whispered that he hoped this wasn’t going to be “another Beatles film with no Beatles music in it”. The subject of soundtracks in Beatles biopics has always been an elephant in the room among fans, and Midas Man, like Backbeat (1994), In His Life: The John Lennon Story (2000), Lennon Naked (2010) and many others before it, did indeed lack any Lennon and McCartney (or Harrison) originals.

    But, given that it cost the 2019 film Yesterday US$10 million (£7.7 million) to acquire the rights to use the Beatles’ music (40% of the entire budget), this shouldn’t really come as a surprise. And there aren’t any crafty ways round it, either. This much we know from the fate of 1979’s Birth of The Beatles which has been prevented from reissue due to its unauthorised use of songs.

    Midas Man tells the story of the legendary Beatles manager, Brian Epstein. The film follows Epstein, played by Jacob Fortune-Lloyd, from his days as the unfulfilled manager of a furniture and musical instrument shop to making good on his promise that his unknown and unsigned band, The Beatles, would one day be “bigger than Elvis”.

    Some reviews have taken issue at how the film shows Epstein one minute suavely cajoling American TV host Ed Sullivan, and the next falling to pieces after the death of his father. But such contradictions of character were exactly what made Epstein who he was – a man Beatles biographer Craig Brown has described as alternatively lonely, businesslike, scrupulous, obsessive, shrewd, awkward and pernickety.

    For me, it’s Epstein’s complexity that makes him so endearing, both in real life and in Midas Man. Fortune-Lloyd expertly and realistically portrays him as confident in his abilities, but also on the cusp of being consumed by self-doubt at any moment. He also carries off the magnetic charm that led Epstein on his scarcely believable journey from selling pianos in his family shop to one of the most powerful people in the entertainment industry within the space of a few years.

    The trailer for Midas Man.

    In what is ultimately a tragic story of a troubled life, it’s unsurprising that there are plenty of tearjerker moments. But screenwriters Brigit Grant and Jonathan Wakeham avoid the temptation to overdo the pathos, choosing subtlety over the sledgehammer.

    A combination of this and Fortune-Lloyd’s understated acting lead to several poignant moments in the film. Epstein yearns to be a part of the band’s world, but is kept on the sidelines due to his position of authority, (perceived) difference in class and, most importantly, his own social awkwardness.

    Being Brian

    The film’s sets are a highlight throughout, from 1960s Liverpool’s unique blend of vibrancy and poverty to the glitz and glamour of New York. The North End Music Store (NEMs) where Epstein worked and which became his management company, thrums with the energy and anticipation of the tectonic shift in culture that’s just around the corner. And I’ve scarcely experienced a more immersive recreation of The Beatles’s lunchtime performances at The Cavern.

    Alongside Fortune-Lloyd’s nuanced performance, there were several other standouts. Leo Harvey-Elledge provides much of the humour as George Harrison, Rosie Day has a whale of a time as an effervescent Cilla Black, and the consistently excellent Eddie Marsan and Emily Watson are perfectly cast (although somewhat underused) as Epstein’s parents.

    Good as the overall casting is, however, it’s hard to see Fortune-Lloyd’s Epstein as only six years senior to Jonah Lees’s John Lennon. As versatile as the former is, he looks significantly older than Epstein’s 27 years – the age he was when he first saw The Beatles perform at The Cavern in 1961.

    This may seem like a minor point, but it affects the dynamic between him and the band, which, combined with the significant height difference between Fortune Lloyd (6ft 2) and Lees (5ft 8) gives a sense of authority that was more representative of The Beatles’ producer, George Martin.

    The decision to create a fictionalised love interest in John “Tex” Ellington (Ed Speleers) is also odd. It serves only to suggest that Epstein’s life wasn’t interesting and dramatic enough without fabrication. Which is far from the truth.

    Invented characters aside, there’s nothing in Midas Man that die-hard Beatles fans didn’t already know about Epstein. But given that he and The Beatles are part of what’s been called “the greatest story ever told”, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Glenn Fosbraey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Midas Man: Brian Epstein biopic captures the complexity that made the Beatles manager so brilliant – https://theconversation.com/midas-man-brian-epstein-biopic-captures-the-complexity-that-made-the-beatles-manager-so-brilliant-242633

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Scents of the Middle Ages and emo nostalgia – what you should read, watch and do this week

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anna Walker, Senior Arts + Culture Editor

    I’ve always been a history nerd, but it wasn’t until I started working at The Conversation that I really caught the medieval bug. Inspired by our academic experts, I’ve read books, trawled online archives, and when I worked on an article about the Book of Kells earlier this year, I had to travel to Dublin to see it for myself.

    And so it is that this week I found myself booking tickets to London to visit Medieval Women: In Their Own Words at the British Library, an exhibition our reviewer, expert in medieval women’s writing Diane Watt, described as “unmissable”.

    I’m particularly excited to see the way that some of the earliest works by women to have been written in English are brought to life in a scent installation. Julian of Norwich’s satanic torments, for example, are conjured up by the stink of sulphur, while Margery Kempe’s angels are evoked by notes of honey, strawberry and caramel.



    Read more:
    Medieval Women: In Their Own Words at the British Library is unmissable

    Dystopian fiction and unsettling realities

    There’s been a lot of noise about Dahomey, the latest documentary film from award-winning French director Mati Diop since it picked up the coveted Golden Bear, the top prize at this year’s Berlin International Film Festival. The film follows the restitution of 26 items that were looted by French troops during an invasion and subsequent colonial occupation of the kingdom of Dahomey, now the present-day Republic of Benin, in November 1892.

    What makes the film particularly unique is Diop’s decision to give a literal voice to the artefacts in question. Viewers follow “object 26”, a statue of King Ghezo who ruled Dahomey from 1797 until 1818, as he narrates his journey from a storage unit in a French museum, back to his homeland. It gave our reviewer, curator of living cultures at Manchester Museum Njabulo Chipangura, much to reflect on.



    Read more:
    Dahomey: timely repatriation documentary gives a literal voice to Benin’s stolen objects

    The trailer for Dahomey.

    For my money, Ali Smith is one of the greatest living British authors. My first encounter with her work was the stunning 2014 book How to Be Both, which applied the fresco technique of visual arts to the novel. Weaving together the stories of a renaissance artist and a 16-year-old girl in contemporary Cambridge, the order in which you read the story depended on which copy you picked up.

    With her latest book, Gliff, Smith continues to play with form. It tells the story of two children, Briar and Rose, as they navigate a post-apocalyptic Britain. Gliff is the first of a planned pair of novels, with the second to be called Glyph. Our reviewer found the novel’s combination of dystopian nightmare and fairy tale enchantment at once accessible and engaging, complex and subtle.



    Read more:
    Ali Smith’s new novel Gliff is a dystopian nightmare with flashes of fairytale enchantment

    Emo nostalgia

    There’s no more appropriate time to visit an exhibition on the work of Tim Burton than Halloween weekend. That is, unless you’re one of those people that insist The Nightmare Before Christmas is actually a Christmas film. Newly opened at the Design Museum, The World of Tim Burton is an exploration of the director’s design practice, and traces the complex path from his initial sketches to their realisation on screen.

    Our reviewer, expert in the gothic Catherine Spooner, found much to enjoy. She described the work on show as “a riot of colour and fizzing line”, though it was the personal items she found most thrilling – teen fan art, scribbles on table napkins and university lecture notes.



    Read more:
    Is Tim Burton an outsider auteur or a global megastar? The Design Museum thinks it has the answer

    As a teenager, I spent hours carefully curating my Myspace page. In my “profile photo” I wore black skinny jeans and doodled-on Converse. My “profile song” was almost always something by My Chemical Romance. Each generation has their defining subculture and for mine, young millennials, that subculture was emo (short for “emotional hardcore”).

    In a move that seems designed to make me feel ancient, emo is now the subject of a nostalgic exhibition at London’s Barbican Music Library. The show features much of the technology that emo teens used to build a sense of community, from those Myspace profiles to flip phones and iPod shuffles. While many of these technologies are long gone, the exhibition argues that emo remains alive and kicking.



    Read more:
    Medieval Women: In Their Own Words at the British Library is unmissable


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    – ref. Scents of the Middle Ages and emo nostalgia – what you should read, watch and do this week – https://theconversation.com/scents-of-the-middle-ages-and-emo-nostalgia-what-you-should-read-watch-and-do-this-week-242630

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Social media and generative AI can have a large climate impact – here’s how to reduce yours

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Domenico Vicinanza, Associate Professor of Intelligent Systems and Data Science, Anglia Ruskin University

    CREATIVE WONDER / shutterstock

    On a train or bus, or just standing in a queue, the most common sight these days is the muted glow of a screen, and the flickering thumbs of people lost in the endless scroll on their smartphones.

    Across the world, about 62% of people are active social media users. In some countries, that figure is over 90%. That adds up to a lot of usage: the average UK adult spends 3 hours and 41 minutes online each day, which translates to around 56 days a year, almost two whole months.

    Every time we read an article, see an advertisement, watch a photo or video, that content needs to be transferred from the social media platform’s servers to our device. The larger the file, the more data needs to be transferred. And high-resolution images or long videos involve lots of data.

    That data is distributed across many “server farms” (typically housed in a large warehouse with thousands of computers) around the world. If you load a video from Youtube you don’t connect to a single “Youtube data HQ” somewhere in California, but will instead gather data from many different servers often in different countries or continents.

    Moving data across the internet requires energy, sending signals through various electronic devices, including routers, servers, and our own mobile phone or laptop. Each of these devices consumes energy to function, while servers need to be kept cool. And this energy is often generated from fossil fuels.

    Low-energy LinkedIn tops the charts.
    Greenspector, CC BY-SA

    Tiktok is the least eco-friendly of the social media platforms, according to a study of internet users in France run by Greenspector in 2021 and then updated in 2023.

    Simply scrolling through the app exchanges a lot of data as Tiktok is constantly running videos, including many preloaded in the background that you may never even see.

    At the end side of the spectrum is LinkedIn. As a text-based platform, with fewer photos and videos, scrolling through LinkedIn uses much less data.

    Generative AI is energy-hungry

    Social media is of course not the only offender. Generative AI, with its ability to create text, images, music and even videos, is completely reshaping lots of creative processes. But though it is appealing, and sometimes a necessity, it comes with an environmental price tag.

    Unsurprisingly, the more powerful the AI, the more energy it consumes. Unlike when you stream video or load a large web page, with generative AI most energy is used at their end, while processing your query. If you ask ChatGPT to write you a novel, the process of writing involves lots of calculations, even if the resulting text itself doesn’t use much data.

    Your request is being processed…
    Caureem / shutterstock

    All this of course raises critical questions about the sustainability of generative AI and about our own carbon footprints. The AI companies themselves are reluctant to tell us exactly how much energy they use, but they apparently can’t stop their own chatbots having a stab. I asked ChatGPT-4 “how much energy was used to process this query?” and it said “0.002 to 0.02 kWh”, which it said “would be similar to keeping a 60-watt bulb on for about 2 minutes”.

    This roughly matches numbers offered by independent analysis and is tens of times more energy than required for a Google search. With millions of queries per day to ChatGPT alone, it all adds up to a huge amount of additional energy use. As generative AI continues to evolve, the demand for energy will only increase.

    What you can do

    While the environmental impact of these technologies raises valid concerns, it’s also essential to recognise their benefits. To take one example, AI-assisted tools like text-to-speech, voice recognition and auto-captioning have already made society more inclusive particularly for disabled or neurodiverse people. I don’t want to suggest we scrap social media or reject generative AI entirely.

    But there are things we can do to reduce the carbon footprint of our internet use, involving a combination of individual actions and systemic changes. Here are some strategies we can all adopt:

    First, limit the screen time. This is the most obvious one. Reducing the amount of time spent on social media can directly decrease energy consumption.

    Second, use energy-saving settings on your devices, such as lowering screen brightness, using a dark background, and enabling power-saving modes.

    Third, consider choosing less energy-demanding social media, using environmental ranking information to inform the decision. That means more text, and less video and generative AI.

    Fourth, whenever possible, use wifi over 4G or 5G mobile data: wifi generally consumes less energy.

    So, next time we find ourselves scrolling endless sequences of pictures and videos, our face lit by the blue glow of our screens, let’s just stop for a second and start implementing those simple strategies, so we can enjoy the benefits of being connected, while minimising the impact on our planet resources. Ultimately, the choice is ours.

    Domenico Vicinanza does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Social media and generative AI can have a large climate impact – here’s how to reduce yours – https://theconversation.com/social-media-and-generative-ai-can-have-a-large-climate-impact-heres-how-to-reduce-yours-240661

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Scott Moe won in Saskatchewan promising economic prosperity, but does that truly help citizens?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Iryna Khovrenkov, Associate Professor, Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Regina

    After winning the recent provincial election, the Saskatchewan Party’s Scott Moe promised a “strong economy, bright future.”

    But does a strong economy necessarily guarantee a bright future?

    Between 1998 and 2018, Saskatchewan’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 45 per cent, making it the fourth largest in Canada.

    Even after the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Saskatchewan led the nation in economic growth, registering a hike of six per cent.

    Over the same 20 years, however, Saskatchewan’s well-being increased by only 13 per cent, according to the Saskatchewan Index of Wellbeing.

    This lag in well-being has only amplified the struggles of the province’s citizens in terms of drug use, youth mental health, homelessness and hate crimes.

    Evidently, and despite its impressive magnitude, Saskatchewan’s economic growth alone does not fully reflect the province’s progress in terms of citizen well-being.

    What is well-being?

    Well-being is a multi-dimensional concept that goes beyond the level or rate of growth of GDP and can illuminate ongoing major policy challenges. GDP, on the other hand, is one-dimensional, developed prior to the Second World War and well before today’s significant policy concerns.

    As defined by the Saskatchewan Index of Wellbeing, it’s achieved when people are physically, emotionally and spiritually healthy; economically secure; have a strong sense of identity, belonging and place; and have the confidence and capacity to engage as citizens.

    Well-being encompasses many aspects that make our lives good — happiness and wellness at the personal level, strong social capital and belonging at the community level. These aspects can then form a strong foundation to tackle larger issues at the societal level such as social justice and environmental sustainability.

    International well-being initiatives

    Many countries, including Canada with its Canadian Index of Wellbeing, have not only developed well-being frameworks but many now routinely collect and publish well-being indicators.

    A handful of jurisdictions — like France, Italy and Sweden — have also begun including quality-of-life measures as benchmarks of their progress.

    New Zealand even formally budgets for well-being and released its first Wellbeing Budget in 2019.

    Regardless of geography or political structure, one common motivation for developing these well-being frameworks is a recognition that economic metrics such as GDP are insufficient to measure a country’s human and environmental progress.



    Read more:
    Australia’s wellbeing budget: what we can – and can’t – learn from NZ

    A well-being approach to policy

    For an effective path forward, citizen well-being should be a guiding principle for government leaders. Community Initiatives Fund and Heritage Saskatchewan, joint forces behind the Saskatchewan Index of Wellbeing, have long called on decision-makers to incorporate well-being into policy.

    The federal government has recently introduced the Quality-of-Life Framework as its first step towards integrating well-being into policymaking. But are these efforts reaching local governments, which carry a regulatory duty of fostering citizen well-being?

    I partnered with the Community Initiatives Fund and Heritage Saskatchewan to survey more than 25 per cent of rural and urban municipalities in Saskatchewan on what’s facilitated or hindered the adoption of well-being into policy in their communities.

    We learned that only 17 per cent of our participating municipalities adopted a well-being approach in their official community plans, although 55 per cent of them consider community well-being elements when developing policies and budgets.

    Additionally, 46 per cent are interested in adopting a well-being approach but have cited lack of financial and human resources, time, community and team support as key challenges in shifting to a well-being approach.

    Finally, we learned that arts, culture and sports amenities were identified as a pressing community need by 36 per cent of our respondents, compared to only six per cent referencing economic sustainability and growth.

    Our findings also support existing evidence that rural communities become stronger when they value well-being more than economic growth.

    The five elements of a well-being economy. (ICLEI Europe YouTube Channel)

    Municipal action required

    As the government level closest to the people, municipalities matter. Services provided by local authorities define citizens’ well-being and their quality of life. Also, local efforts have the potential to inspire province-wide change.

    With urban municipalities in Saskatchewan gearing up for their own elections on Nov. 13, it’s a good time to consider prioritizing community well-being.

    In the words of Jacinda Ardern, the former prime minister of New Zealand: “Growth alone does not lead to a great country …. so it’s time to focus on those things that do.”

    For real change to occur, well-being should lie at the heart of policymaking.

    The research project about well-being in municipal policy is a product of a partnership between Iryna Khovrenkov at the University of Regina, Tracey Mann at Community Initiatives Fund and Ingrid Cazakoff at Heritage Saskatchewan. The financial support of Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council Partnership Engage Grant number 892-2021-3028 is gratefully acknowledged.

    – ref. Scott Moe won in Saskatchewan promising economic prosperity, but does that truly help citizens? – https://theconversation.com/scott-moe-won-in-saskatchewan-promising-economic-prosperity-but-does-that-truly-help-citizens-242574

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: New survey finds an alarming tolerance for attacks on the press in the US – particularly among white, Republican men

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Julie Posetti, Global Director of Research, International Center for Journalists (ICFJ) and Professor of Journalism, City St George’s, University of London

    Press freedom is a pillar of American democracy. But political attacks on US-based journalists and news organisations pose an unprecedented threat to their safety and the integrity of information.

    Less than 48 hours before election day, Donald Trump told a rally of his supporters that he wouldn’t mind if someone shot the journalists in front of him.

    “I have this piece of glass here, but all we have really over here is the fake news. And to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. And I don’t mind that so much,” he said.

    A new survey from the International Center for Journalists (ICFJ) highlights a disturbing tolerance for political bullying of the press in the land of the First Amendment. The findings show that this is especially true among white, male, Republican voters.

    We commissioned this nationally representative survey of 1,020 US adults, which was fielded between June 24 and July 5 2024, to assess Americans’ attitudes to the press ahead of the election. We are publishing the results here for the first time.

    More than one-quarter (27%) of the Americans we polled said they had often seen or heard a journalist being threatened, harassed or abused online. And more than one-third (34%) said they thought it was appropriate for senior politicians and government officials to criticise journalists and news organisations.

    Tolerance for attacks on the press appears as politically polarised as American society. Nearly half (47%) of the Republicans surveyed approved of senior politicians critiquing the press, compared to less than one-quarter (22%) of Democrats.

    Our analysis also revealed divisions according to gender and ethnicity. While 37% of white-identifying respondents thought it was appropriate for political leaders to target journalists and news organisations, only 27% of people of colour did. There was also a nine-point difference along gender lines, with 39% of men approving of this conduct, compared to 30% of women.

    It appears intolerance towards the press has a face – a predominantly white, male and Republican-voting face.

    Press freedom fears

    This election campaign, Trump has repeated his blatantly false claim that journalists are “enemies of the people”. He has suggested that reporters who cross him should be jailed, and signalled that he would like to revoke broadcast licences of networks.

    Relevant, too, is the enabling environment for viral attacks on journalists created by unregulated social media companies which represent a clear threat to press freedom and the safety of journalists. Previous research produced by ICFJ for Unesco concluded that there was a causal relationship between online violence towards women journalists and physical attacks.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

    Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday.

    While political actors may be the perpetrators of abuse targeting journalists, social media companies have facilitated their viral spread, heightening the risk to journalists.

    We’ve seen a potent example of this in the current campaign, when Haitian Times editor Macollvie J. Neel was “swatted” – meaning police were dispatched to her home after a fraudulent report of a murder at the address – during an episode of severely racist online violence.

    The trigger? Her reporting on Trump and JD Vance amplifying false claims that Haitian immigrants were eating their neighbours’ pets.

    Trajectory of Trump attacks

    Since the 2016 election, Trump has repeatedly discredited independent reporting on his campaign. He has weaponised the term “fake news” and accused the media of “rigging” elections.

    “The election is being rigged by corrupt media pushing completely false allegations and outright lies in an effort to elect [Hillary Clinton] president,” he said in 2016. With hindsight, such accusations foreshadowed his false claims of election fraud in 2020, and similar preemptive claims in 2024.

    His increasingly virulent attacks on journalists and news organisations are amplified by his supporters online and far-right media. Trump has effectively licensed attacks on American journalists through anti-press rhetoric and undermined respect for press freedom.

    In 2019, the Committee to Protect Journalists found that more than 11% of 5,400 tweets posted by Trump between the date of his 2016 candidacy and January 2019 “…insulted or criticised journalists and outlets, or condemned and denigrated the news media as a whole”.

    After being temporarily deplatformed from Twitter for breaching community standards, Trump launched Truth Social, where he continues to abuse his critics uninterrupted. But he recently rejoined the platform (now X), and held a series of campaign events with X owner and Trump backer Elon Musk.

    The failed insurrection on January 6 2021 rammed home the scale of the escalating threats facing American journalists. During the riots at the Capitol, at least 18 journalists were assaulted and reporting equipment valued at tens of thousands of dollars was destroyed.

    This election cycle, Reporters Without Borders logged 108 instances of Trump insulting, attacking or threatening the news media in public speeches or offline remarks over an eight-week period ending on October 24.

    Meanwhile, the Freedom of the Press Foundation has recorded 75 assaults on journalists since January 1 this year. That’s a 70% increase on the number of assaults captured by their press freedom tracker in 2023.

    A recent survey of hundreds of journalists undertaking safety training provided by the International Women’s Media Foundation found that 36% of respondents reported being threatened with or experiencing physical violence. One-third reported exposure to digital violence, and 28% reported legal threats or action against them.

    US journalists involved in ongoing ICFJ research have told us that they have felt particularly at risk covering Trump rallies and reporting on the election from communities hostile towards the press. Some are wearing protective flak jackets to cover domestic politics. Others have removed labels identifying their outlets from their reporting equipment to reduce the risk of being physically attacked.

    And yet, our survey reveals a distinct lack of public concern about the First Amendment implications of political leaders threatening, harassing, or abusing journalists. Nearly one-quarter (23%) of Americans surveyed did not regard political attacks on journalists or news organisations as a threat to press freedom. Among them, 38% identified as Republicans compared to just 9%* as Democrats.

    The anti-press playbook

    Trump’s anti-press playbook appeals to a global audience of authoritarians. Other political strongmen, from Brazil to Hungary and the Philippines, have adopted similar tactics of deploying disinformation to smear and threaten journalists and news outlets.

    Such an approach imperils journalists while undercutting trust in facts and critical independent journalism.

    History shows that fascism thrives when journalists can not safely and freely do the work of holding governments and political leaders to account. As our research findings show, the consequences are a society accepting lies and fiction as facts while turning a blind eye to attacks on the press.

    *The people identifying as Democrats in this sub-group are too few to make this a reliable representative estimate.

    Note: Nabeelah Shabbir (ICFJ Deputy Director of Research) and Kaylee Williams (ICFJ Research Associate) also contributed to this article and the research underpinning it. The survey was conducted by Langer Research Associates in English and Spanish. ICFJ researchers co-developed the survey and conducted the analysis.

    Julie Posetti receives research funding via ICFJ from the Scripps Howard Fund, Luminate, the UK’s Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, the Gates Foundation and the US State Department.

    Waqas Ejaz works as Post-doc Research Fellow at University of Oxford as well as a Senior Research Associate at ICFJ.

    – ref. New survey finds an alarming tolerance for attacks on the press in the US – particularly among white, Republican men – https://theconversation.com/new-survey-finds-an-alarming-tolerance-for-attacks-on-the-press-in-the-us-particularly-among-white-republican-men-242719

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election: what time do the polls close and when will the results be known? An expert explains

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Richard Hargy, Visiting Research Fellow in International Studies, Queen’s University Belfast

    paseven / Shutterstock

    In November 2020, when Americans last went to the polls to elect a president, it took four days after voting closed for Joe Biden to be declared the winner.

    This was largely due to razor-thin margins in the crucial battleground states, which resulted in some recounts, as well as large numbers of mail-in ballots that had to be counted after election day. There was the added challenge of this entire process being conducted amid a global pandemic.

    Since then, some states have changed their election laws to speed up the election count. But while it may not take as long this time round, one thing we can be sure of is that a winner will not be known on election night itself.

    When do polls open and close?

    There is no set national time for voting to begin on the morning of November 5. Most states will begin voting at 7am in their local time, with others starting as early as 5am or as late as 10am. Voting will commence at a variety of times in some states, such as New Hampshire, Tennessee and Washington where this is decided by different counties or municipalities.

    Polls close at a range of times across the country, too. Voting will end as early as 6pm US eastern time (11pm GMT) in Indiana and Kentucky, while polls in Hawaii and Alaska, the western-most states, do not close until midnight US eastern time (5am GMT).

    An early indicator of which candidate is performing better will come between 7pm and 8pm eastern time (midnight and 1am GMT), when polls close in the key battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina. Both states are competitive for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and if the former is declared the victor in either, then the contest will pivot in her favour.

    The next key moment could occur between 8pm and 9pm eastern time (1am and 2am GMT), when voting ends across the so-called blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. However, it is unlikely that a winner will be declared in any of these states straightaway. By 10pm eastern time (3am GMT), polls will have closed in two other critical swing states, Arizona and Nevada.

    When will votes be counted?

    There are several factors that could hinder results being announced in the hours immediately after voting ends. In Arizona, for example, state laws allow voters to drop their completed ballot papers off at the polling station on election day or the day prior – something that not all states do. However, these “late early” ballots cannot be processed until after voting ends.

    Pennsylvania is arguably the most prized swing state that both the Democratic and Republican campaigns are vying for. The state has 19 electoral votes, the most of any battleground state, so the victor will probably win the electoral college (the group of officials that elects the president based on the vote in each state) and thus also the presidency.



    Read more:
    US election: how does the electoral college voting system work?

    But Pennsylvania does not allow election workers to process mail ballots until 7am local time on election day, which could mean the result takes longer than 24 hours after polls close to be made known.

    That said, Alauna Safarpour, an assistant professor at Pennsylvania’s Gettysburg College, does not think the wait will be as long as it was four years ago. Writing for The Conversation on October 29, she said that it was “highly likely” that fewer Pennsylvanians will choose to vote by mail this time around.

    “A smaller proportion of voters opted to vote by mail in the 2022 midterm election than in the 2020 general election, and that trend is likely to continue in 2024”, she says.



    Read more:
    Why Pennsylvania’s election results will take time to count

    Two more crucial states, Michigan and Nevada, have also made changes to the election count since 2020. These states now permit ballot papers to be processed in advance of polling day. On the other hand, the ability of North Carolina to process votes ahead of the election has been made more difficult due to the damage recently caused by Hurricane Helene. This may lead to further delays.

    In Wisconsin, vote counting in two of the state’s biggest counties – Milwaukee and Dane – can also be particularly slow. Milwaukee and Dane counties are both significant urban centres with a combined population of around 1.5 million people. The margin in these counties will be significant to the result in Wisconsin and the presidential race overall.

    What might delay the results?

    There are concerns that certain domestic players could seek to frustrate and delay election results in the critical swing states. In January 2020, for example, a large number of Republicans in Congress objected to results in Pennsylvania and Arizona – states that were both won by Biden.

    And in seven swing states, people falsely claiming to be members of the electoral college attempted to declare Trump as the winner of their state. Their votes were sent to Congress to be counted alongside those of the true electors, with some Congress members arguing that the new slate of electoral votes cast doubts over the official result in certain states. In 2023, a Trump campaign lawyer, Kenneth Chesebro, pleaded guilty in Georgia to his role in subverting the election.

    Norman Eisen, Samara Angel and Clare Boone, who are all fellows at the Brookings Institution thinktank, have provided detailed analysis on how this scenario could be repeated in 2024. They point to nefarious strategies that could be utilised to confuse results by refusing to certify elections at the “county level”.

    For example, three election deniers – Rick Jeffares, Janice Johnston and Janelle King – hold the balance of power in Georgia’s state election board. They have jointly devised new rules that allow vote certification to be paused while investigations are launched into alleged “irregularities”.

    Eisen, Angel and Boone assert that while “these attempts will likely meet the same fate as prior efforts, they could still stoke uncertainty and distrust.” So, given the existence of these threats and the fact that polls show a dead heat, we will probably not know the election’s winner for at least a few days.

    Richard Hargy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US election: what time do the polls close and when will the results be known? An expert explains – https://theconversation.com/us-election-what-time-do-the-polls-close-and-when-will-the-results-be-known-an-expert-explains-242635

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Doctors are already using AI in care – but we don’t actually know what safe use should look like

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Sujan, Chair in Safety Science, University of York

    It’s too soon to safely use GenAI in regular clinical practice. Josep Suria/ Shutterstock

    One in five UK doctors use a generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) tool – such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT or Google’s Gemini – to assist with clinical practice. This is according to a recent survey of around 1,000 GPs.

    Doctors reported using GenAI to generate documentation after appointments, help make clinical decisions and provide information to patients – such as comprehensible discharge summaries and treatment plans.

    Considering the hype around artificial intelligence coupled with the challenges health systems are facing, it’s no surprise doctors and policymakers alike see AI as key in modernising and transforming our health services.

    But GenAI is a recent innovation that fundamentally challenges how we think about patient safety. There’s still much we need to know about GenAI before it can be used safely in everyday clinical practice.

    The problems with GenAI

    Traditionally, AI applications have been developed to perform a very specific task. For example, deep learning neural networks have been used for classification in imaging and diagnostics. Such systems prove effective in analysing mammograms to aid in breast cancer screening.

    But GenAI is not trained to perform a narrowly defined task. These technologies are based on so-called foundation models, which have generic capabilities. This means they can generate text, pixels, audio or even a combination of these.

    These capabilities are then fine-tuned for different applications – such as answering user queries, producing code or creating images. The possibilities for interacting with this type of AI appear to be limited only by the user’s imagination.

    Crucially, because the technology has not been developed for use in a specific context or to be used for a specific purpose, we don’t actually know how doctors can use it safely. This is just one reason why GenAI isn’t suited for widespread use in healthcare just yet.

    Another problem in using GenAI in healthcare is the well documented phenomenon of “hallucinations”. Hallucinations are nonsensical or untruthful outputs based on the input that has been provided.

    Hallucinations have been studied in the context of having GenAI create summaries of text. One study found various GenAI tools produced outputs that made incorrect links based on what was said in the text, or summaries included information that wasn’t even referred to in the text.

    Hallucinations occur because GenAI works on the principle of likelihood – such as predicting which word will follow in a given context – rather than being based on “understanding” in a human sense. This means GenAI-produced outputs are plausible rather than necessarily truthful.

    This plausibility is another reason it’s too soon to safely use GenAI in routine medical practice.

    Generative AI functions on the basis of plausibility.
    egaranugrah/ Shutterstock

    Imagine a GenAI tool that listens in on a patient’s consultation and then produces an electronic summary note. On one hand, this frees up the GP or nurse to better engage with their patient. But on the other hand, the GenAI could potentially produce notes based on what it thinks may be plausible.

    For instance, the GenAI summary might change the frequency or severity of the patient’s symptoms, add symptoms the patient never complained about or include information the patient or doctor never mentioned.

    Doctors and nurses would need to do an eagle-eyed proofread of any AI-generated notes and have excellent memory to distinguish the factual information from the plausible – but made-up – information.

    This might be fine in a traditional family doctor setting, where the GP knows the patient well enough to identify inaccuracies. But in our fragmented health system, where patients are often seen by different healthcare workers, any inaccuracies in the patient’s notes could pose significant risks to their health – including delays, improper treatment and misdiagnosis.

    The risks associated with hallucinations are significant. But it’s worth noting researchers and developers are currently working on reducing the likelihood of hallucinations.

    Patient safety

    Another reason it’s too soon to use GenAI in healthcare is because patient safety depends on interactions with the AI to determine how well it works in a certain context and setting – looking at how the technology works with people, how it fits with rules and pressures and the culture and priorities within a larger health system. Such a systems perspective would determine if the use of GenAI is safe.

    But because GenAI isn’t designed for a specific use, this means it’s adaptable and can be used in ways we can’t fully predict. On top of this, developers are regularly updating their technology, adding new generic capabilities that alter the behaviour of the GenAI application.

    Furthermore, harm could occur even if the technology appears to work safely and as intended – again, depending on context of use.

    For example, introducing GenAI conversational agents for triaging could affect different patients’ willingness to engage with the healthcare system. Patients with lower digital literacy, people whose first language isn’t English and non-verbal patients may find GenAI difficult to use. So while the technology may “work” in principle, this could still contribute to harm if the technology wasn’t working equally for all users.

    The point here is that such risks with GenAI are much harder to anticipate upfront through traditional safety analysis approaches. These are concerned with understanding how a failure in the technology might cause harm in specific contexts. Healthcare could benefit tremendously from the adoption of GenAI and other AI tools.

    But before these technologies can be used in healthcare more broadly, safety assurance and regulation will need to become more responsive to developments in where and how these technologies are used.

    It’s also necessary for developers of GenAI tools and regulators to work with the communities using these technologies to develop tools that can be used regularly and safely in clinical practice.

    Mark Sujan is a member of the Centre for Assuring Autonomy, which is funded jointly by Lloyd’s Register Foundation and the University of York. He is author and Deputy Editor at BMJ Health & Care Informatics. The journal frequently publishes research on healthcare AI.

    – ref. Doctors are already using AI in care – but we don’t actually know what safe use should look like – https://theconversation.com/doctors-are-already-using-ai-in-care-but-we-dont-actually-know-what-safe-use-should-look-like-241175

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The budget is good news overall for young professionals – here’s how the changes will affect you

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andy Lymer, Professor of Taxation and Personal Finance, Aston University

    fizkes/Shutterstock

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s first budget was full of a dizzying array of measures to raise over £40 billion to fund public services and boost investment.

    The headlines suggest most of the extra taxes to be paid will fall on businesses, not directly on “working people”. If you are recently out of university or early in your career, here are a few measures most likely to affect your life.

    Inheritance tax

    This 40% tax is paid by the estates of those who pass away, before the remaining amount is distributed based on their wishes. It is really more of an estate tax, than a tax on what you inherit personally.

    Little was changed to the tax itself in this budget – you can still receive £325,000 tax-free from each parent, or from your spouse or civil partner. If the estate includes a family home, they can pass this tax free between them and then to their descendants up to a value of £1 million (both get £500,000 each). Estate values beyond this are taxed at 40%.

    The £325,000 threshold hasn’t changed since April 2009, so as house and asset prices rise it means more of an estate’s value over these levels will be subject to tax each year. If this threshold level had kept pace with changes in general prices, the basic inheritance tax threshold should now be more than £500,000.

    The chancellor has decided to extend the fixing of this threshold for another two years – now to at least 2030.

    Does this matter? Very much so, as budget forecasts suggest that while only 5% of current estates are subject to any tax, by 2029-30 this will double, so many more of us will get taxed on inheritances than ever before. This is because as prices keep rising, more and more inheritances will go over the threshold level and be subject to this tax.

    However, this still implies 90% of all estates will be passed on tax-free so most will never end up bearing this tax.

    No one’s 20s and 30s look the same. You might be saving for a mortgage or just struggling to pay rent. You could be swiping dating apps, or trying to understand childcare. No matter your current challenges, our Quarter Life series has articles to share in the group chat, or just to remind you that you’re not alone.

    Read more from Quarter Life:

    One change that Reeves did announce was that inherited pension pots will now all be taxable. Currently, if you inherit unused parts of a pension pot and the owner died aged less than 75, it was passed on tax-free. This won’t happen in the future, and it will instead form part of the estate and be subject to the tax rules above. This means estate sizes could be larger and more will therefore end up getting taxed.

    Reeves also announced the end of the exemption that allows owners of agricultural land and farms, and owners of businesses to avoid inheritance tax. Instead, from April 2026 a £1 million exemption cap will be applied and any assets passed on above this will be taxed at 20% (half the rate applied to other inheritances).

    Housing and stamp duty

    Reeves also announced a rise in stamp duty (the tax paid when you buy a house or flat over a certain value) for those purchasing second homes. While you and your peers are more likely to be trying to buy a first home, the government argues that this increase will give first-time buyers a competitive advantage in the housing market.

    However, there is risk that these extra costs could be passed on, for example to renters of a landlord’s second property in the form of higher rent.

    The government also did not extend the higher thresholds for stamp duty that were announced by the previous Conservative government in the October 2022 mini-budget. So from April next year, first-time buyers will once again have to pay stamp duty on any properties over £300,000, rather than £425,000.

    National insurance

    Employer national insurance contributions (NICs) are also set to rise in April 2025 to 15% (from 13.8%). This doesn’t directly affect employees, as their NIC rate will stay at 8%. However, this may mean there will be less money to pay wage increases or hire new staff.

    The Office for Budget Responsibility expects about 60% of this extra employer NIC cost on average to fall on wages, and about 15% to be passed on to customers in higher prices – so only 25% will affect business profits.

    However, this impact will vary. Smaller businesses and businesses in low margin industries such as low-end retailing or grocery stores, may find this harder to pass on to their employees or customers.

    They will have to absorb more of this cost as reduced profits, which in turn would lead to less money for wage increases or hiring. In effect, it will be cheaper to have more self-employed people (employer NICs are not paid on the self-employed, who have to sort this out themselves).

    Stamp duty has risen – but only on second homes.
    fizkes/Shutterstock

    Minimum wage rising

    Another key change that is likely to disproportionately affect younger workers – national minimum wage is to rise. For those over 21, this will be by 6.7% to £12.21 per hour from April 2025. For a full-time employee, that is an extra £1,400 a year (before tax).

    Those aged 18-20 will be getting an even larger rise to £10 per hour (a 16.3% increase on the current £8.60/hour).

    This is good news for employees, but some fear it could lead to fewer jobs. However, it is a buyer’s market for some lower paid roles, as some industries are struggling to fill vacancies. This may not be a worry for all jobs. Employers will have to pay the minimum wage to get staff they need.

    As always, we will have to wait and see what changes this really creates as people react to the full range of announcements. But the overall government distribution predictions is that all but the very richest will be better off from this budget.

    Very few young professionals fall into this category, so you can almost certainly expect to gain overall from this budget, even if not personally from every change.

    Andy Lymer receives funding from a variety of sources for his work and that of the Centre for Personal Financial Wellbeing that he directs. Most recently this has included the UK’s Money and Pension Service, the Aviva Foundation, and Fair4All Finance.

    – ref. The budget is good news overall for young professionals – here’s how the changes will affect you – https://theconversation.com/the-budget-is-good-news-overall-for-young-professionals-heres-how-the-changes-will-affect-you-242643

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Bird flu detected in pigs – here’s why virologists are concerned

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ed Hutchinson, Professor, MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, University of Glasgow

    H5N1 influenza has now been detected in pigs. This was something virologists had been worrying about ever since this highly pathogenic strain of bird flu started its rapid global spread in 2020. But why were we worrying specifically about pigs? And does this case – detected on a farm in Oregon on October 29 – change anything?

    It might seem odd that we care about it at all. In many ways, the initial reports of this case are – against the backdrop of a continuing viral outbreak that has devastated seabird colonies around the world, caused huge die-offs of sea lions and led to the emergence of an entirely new disease of US dairy cattle – pretty innocuous.

    What we currently know is this: H5N1 bird flu infected poultry on a small American non-commercial farm, something which is sadly now quite common. In this case, there were other animals on the farm, including five pigs. Although the pigs appeared to be healthy, a nasal swab from one of them was found to contain H5N1.

    We don’t yet know if the pig was actually infected or if it had just snuffled up some contaminated material from the birds. At the moment, this particular outbreak doesn’t seem to have spread into any other pigs.

    And “spillover” infections on farms, where a virus from one species turns up in another, are nothing new. Back in May, H5N1 turned up in farmed alpacas in a somewhat similar incident.

    In May, bird flu turned up in an alpaca.
    Siam Stock/Shutterstock

    To understand why pigs get virologist’s attention, we need to think about what it means for a virus to jump from one host species to another. A moment’s reflection tells us that changing host species must be an incredibly difficult thing for a virus to do.

    The world is teeming with viruses that infect every species around us. If it wasn’t very nearly impossible for a virus to jump from one species into another, we’d be dealing with a new pandemic every ten minutes.

    Much more subtle

    The reason it’s so difficult for a virus to jump between different types of host is because viruses are fundamentally different from bacteria, or parasites: pathogens that basically just want to eat us. Viruses are much more subtle.

    Viruses work by taking control of our cells and carefully reprogramming them into machines for making more viruses. Because of this, a virus infecting a new host species is like someone trying to win an argument by shouting at people in a language that they can’t understand. And this is where pigs come in.

    Influenza viruses (specifically influenza A viruses, the group to which H5N1 belongs) are unusually good at crossing between different host species. They still only manage to create a new human disease once every few decades, but that’s a better hit rate than any other virus.

    If we look back, most of the pandemics we know of have been caused by influenza viruses, and the threat of a new pandemic is the biggest worry we have about H5N1 now.

    One of the main reasons that influenza is good at learning the language of a new host species is that, if two influenza viruses can get into the same cell at the same time, they will assemble new viruses that take some of their genes from one parent virus and some from the other. The novel virus that this creates can suddenly shift to being better evolved to its host.

    For example, it could still look like an avian virus, which we have no immunity to, while having swapped most of its genes for versions that are very good at winning arguments with human cells. This is a powerful way for a virus to leapfrog towards causing a pandemic. However, it only works if a bird virus and a human virus can get into the same cell at the same time, and this turns out to be really difficult for influenza viruses to do.

    It’s difficult because influenza viruses get into cells by grabbing on to a particular type of sugar molecule that coats the cell surface. This molecule can be chemically assembled in several different shapes, and while one shape of molecule is used on cells in birds (and, we now think, in cow’s udders), a different shape is used on cells in the human airway.

    Mixing vessels

    Bird flu viruses and human flu viruses are trying to get into cells by rattling the handles of different doors, which limits their ability to meet in the same cell. And this is where pigs come in, because it turns out that the cells in pig airways use both types of sugar molecule on their surface. Pig cells can be infected by both bird flu and human flu, making pigs a potential “mixing vessel” in which influenza viruses with pandemic potential could be brewed.

    Has this happened yet? Thankfully, no. At the moment, this detection of H5N1 in a pig appears to have been an isolated incident. We don’t know how likely it is to happen again.

    Indeed, there is an idea that it could be quite hard for this particular virus to infect pigs, a hypothesis supported by some experimental work and by the observation that, despite H5N1 running rampant and turning up in all sorts of animals over the last four years, this is the first time an H5N1 infection of pigs has been suspected.

    Even if H5N1 did succeed in establishing sustained transmission in pigs – as it has already done in cows – what that would mean is far from certain. We know that influenza viruses can mix with each other in pigs, but we also know that the strain of influenza virus that entered pigs in 1918 then circulated in them for over 90 years before combining with other viruses to cause the 2009 swine flu pandemic.

    So why did a report of H5N1 in pigs get so much attention from virologists? H5N1 has the potential to be an extremely dangerous virus for many different animals, and combining its genes with a human virus could make it much more dangerous to us.

    The risks of that happening have already begun to increase as this year’s winter flu season starts for humans while H5N1 is circulating on farms in the US. Any suggestion of the virus turning up in animals that could help it to mix and match with a human influenza is a troubling reminder that H5N1 has the potential to change its capabilities very quickly.

    When it comes to which animals to watch for signs of such a change happening, some animals are more equal than others. For as long as H5N1 is around, virologists are going to watch any infections of pigs with interest.

    Ed Hutchinson is affiliated with the European Scientific Working group on Influenza and other respiratory viruses (ESWI) and has an unpaid position on the advisory board of PinPoint Medical. His reserach receives funding from UKRI and the Wellcome Trust.

    – ref. Bird flu detected in pigs – here’s why virologists are concerned – https://theconversation.com/bird-flu-detected-in-pigs-heres-why-virologists-are-concerned-242623

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to Build a Truth Engine documentary makes for sober but crucial viewing in our age of disinformation

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Clodagh Harrington, Lecturer in American Politics, University College Cork

    If the powerful documentary How to Build a Truth Engine had to be compressed into two thematic strands they might be “how the human mind works” and “how our brain can be manipulated by information”. Director Friedrich Moser’s film takes us on a two-hour voyage of explanation, covering issues from cyber-warfare to elections, COVID to conflict and more.

    Engaged citizens may find some of it they knew already. However, Moser offers a forensic and evidence-based delivery of how, why and the extent to which technology, events and the manipulation of both has had a powerful and deeply disconcerting impact on humans individually and collectively.

    As an expert in American politics, who recently wrote on the crisis of truth in the current US election, I found How to Build a Truth Engine makes for sober but crucial viewing.

    As our news cycles overflow with disinformation and fake news, this visually engaging film takes us on a calm, scientific tour of how we got to where we are – which is disinformation-central.

    Experts in neuroscience, engineering and even folklore explain the ways in which we think and process information. As humans, our brains rely on steady, clear streams of data. When these streams become polluted, our capacity to process and understand reality is challenged, and our vulnerability to false narratives increases.

    Clearly, lying for political purposes is as old as politics itself, but the capacity to disseminate these lies is now on a scale previously unimaginable, as the documentary shows.

    Unsurprisingly, Moser’s production gives much attention to the plight of traditional journalism. It also focuses on the challenges we face as consumers of news now that the process through which information is filtered and considered fit for dissemination has been dismantled to an alarming extent.

    The programme offers a stark reminder of the current state of conventional journalism, weakened by the migration of resources to online search engines where advertising and algorithms trump fact checking and truth telling.

    Among the topics covered is the 2022 Russian invasion of Bucha in Ukraine, in which multiple civilians were killed, with bound bodies left in the streets. At the time, the Kremlin rebuffed Ukrainian allegations of war crimes as a fake narrative and went so far as to state that the civilian massacre was a staged event.

    Western journalists, including New York Times staff, used satellite imagery to piece together events in the lead-up to the atrocity. As a result, they were able to verify what the Ukrainians had told them, but with the powerful addition of visual evidence, which transcended any “he said, she said” narrative.

    If truth is the first casualty of war, this important use of technology for such crucial purpose offers a ripple of accuracy in an ocean of falsehood.

    In highlighting the significance to the human brain of narrative and storytelling, the documentary offers chilling insights regarding the conspiracy theory path that led to the January 6 attack on the US Capitol in 2021. History is filled with tales of societies falling for false narratives, and the assault on the Capitol adheres to these criteria.

    From stereotyping to the creation of insider-outsider narratives (where certain groups are presented as relatable and others as negative and untrustworthy), it is only a small leap to negative assumptions about those deemed outsiders. In the case of January 6 Capitol attack in 2021, the documentary makes clear the groundwork was laid long before any violence took place.

    And so, we are reminded that the fiction that the 2020 election was stolen by Joe Biden was promoted, shared, amplified and repeated back (between Donald Trump, social media and sympathetic television networks) until the protesters were whipped into a frenzy. The result of this unchecked political propaganda was death and destruction.

    Those in Moser’s film offer a chilling reminder that as long as the lie of the “Big Steal”, as it is known now, remains alive as truth in the minds of many Americans, then it can happen again. If the relentless pursuit of accuracy is a core component of journalism, we can see that this pursuit is under constant siege as lies propagate at lightning speed and citizens choose their own truths.

    The documentary taps into the key question of our era: how do we know what we know? In an age of information warfare, truth is a valuable and vulnerable commodity. As humans, we have created technology so advanced that it is already outsmarting us.

    And truth is often diluted, polluted or drowned out completely in our daily communication torrents. This, combined with the nefarious agendas of bad actors means that individuals, communities and our way of life are under significant threat. The consolation, as presented by Moser’s work, may be that technology can also get us out of this predicament. That’s assuming that we want it to.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Clodagh Harrington does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How to Build a Truth Engine documentary makes for sober but crucial viewing in our age of disinformation – https://theconversation.com/how-to-build-a-truth-engine-documentary-makes-for-sober-but-crucial-viewing-in-our-age-of-disinformation-242554

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What poll watchers can − and can’t − do on Election Day

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Mollie J. Cohen, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Purdue University

    Poll watchers keep an eye on voting in Georgia in November 2022. AP Photo/Ben Gray

    When most people think of their experience of voting in person, they may remember other voters at the polls, or the hardworking election officials checking people in and helping people submit their ballots. But in many elections, a third group is often present: poll watchers.

    Poll watchers are ordinary citizens who volunteer to observe elections on behalf of an organization. Many of them do so on behalf of a specific political party. Other volunteers are nonpartisan poll watchers; they observe the action at polling places on behalf of nonpartisan organizations, including domestic groups and international election watchdogs such as the Carter Center or the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.

    The United States has not historically relied extensively on international election monitors, and they are prohibited in some states, such as Tennessee. Most often, when journalists and academics like us refer to poll watchers in the U.S., we mean partisan election observers.

    If all goes well on Election Day, poll watchers’ jobs will be tedious. They will simply watch voters performing the key acts of democracy: filing into the precinct, engaging with poll workers and casting ballots. Partisan poll watchers will also likely observe the tabulation of ballots and receive an official copy of the results in case they choose to conduct a simultaneous tally.

    What do poll watchers do?

    Poll watchers protect their organization’s interests at polling places. By observing as ballots are cast and counted, poll watchers can help ensure that only eligible voters participate and that blatant election rigging – like stuffing the ballot box with unauthorized ballots – does not occur.

    As observers independent of the government officials they are monitoring, poll watchers can add an extra layer of transparency and accountability to election proceedings and help to ensure that elections are free and fair.

    Poll watchers, like this one in Detroit in 2020, monitor all aspects of voting and tabulation.
    AP Photo/David Goldman

    However, poll watchers can also undermine the integrity of elections. For example, poll watchers may overzealously – and illegally – challenge a citizen’s eligibility to cast a ballot without cause. Or their presence may intimidate or pressure voters.

    In the 1980s, for example, the Republican Party in New Jersey recruited uniformed, off-duty police officers to watch the polls and posted signs offering a reward for information about people violating election laws. A lawsuit over that activity led to a nationwide court order barring the Republican National Committee from using poll watchers without clearance from a federal judge. The order was lifted in 2018.

    Historical records show that, since the early 1800s, poll watchers from both parties frequently challenged the eligibility of African Americans and likely immigrants, often leading to their removal from the voter rolls. In cases like these, poll watchers can undermine the core democratic principle of voters’ freedom to participate.

    It is also important to remember that many poll watchers are partisans – they work on behalf of their political parties. In fact, in recent years a central goal of the Republican Party has been recruiting and deploying poll watchers. Our research shows that in the current era of polarized partisan politics in the United States, the mere presence of partisan actors at polling locations can undermine voters’ trust in elections.

    What are the rules?

    While the history and partisan nature of election observation may raise concerns about voter intimidation, a variety of federal and state laws protect voters on Election Day.

    Poll watchers are subject to federal laws that protect voters from intimidation and interference. Many states also have additional regulations that govern what poll watchers can do when observing elections.

    For instance, some states require formal training. The state of Georgia, for example, requires all partisan poll watchers to complete training provided by their political party. Watchers in Ohio, on the other hand, must be registered voters but are not required to complete formal training.

    Another important difference between states is whether they allow poll watchers to directly interact with voters. In some states, such as Georgia, poll watchers may not speak to voters. In others, such as Ohio, poll watchers can speak with voters but can’t threaten voters for choosing a certain candidate or encourage them to vote for another.

    Poll workers, like these in New York City in 2020, often make sure poll watchers can see what’s happening.
    AP Photo/John Minchillo

    Challenging voters’ eligibility

    A final important difference between states rules about poll watchers is whether they can challenge the eligibility of a voter. Good-faith challenges can arise when a poll watcher has a strong reason to believe that a voter is not eligible to vote in the district where they are voting. Pennsylvania poll watchers, for example, are allowed to keep a list of eligible voters and could register a challenge if they believe someone not on that list is attempting to vote.

    Poll watchers who operate in bad faith may make challenges based on little or no evidence, with the intention of distracting poll workers, demoralizing voters and slowing voting, rather than ensuring the rules are followed correctly.

    Poll watchers generally raise challenges at the polling place directly with election administrators, who are local volunteers and employees. Voters whose eligibility is challenged may have to cast a provisional ballot and present additional proof of their identification and residence to election officials, either on Election Day or in a later legal proceeding. Importantly, many states have strong regulations that aim to protect voters against arbitrary challenges to their eligibility. Challengers in Florida, for example, must submit a formal written oath attesting to the accuracy of their challenge and are subject to prosecution if the challenge is determined to be “frivolous.”

    If a poll watcher suspects that something is amiss at a polling location while voters are casting ballots or while ballots are being tabulated, they can raise concerns with local election administrators or other election officials, such as local boards of elections. They may also pass the word up through the political party they are representing.

    Many issues are straightforward to address, and election workers respond immediately. More complex concerns – or allegations reported to party leaders by many poll watchers in different locations – may ultimately lead to legal action in the courts.

    Mollie J. Cohen has received funding from the Russell Sage Foundation.

    Geoffrey D. Sheagley receives funding from the Russell Sage Foundation.

    – ref. What poll watchers can − and can’t − do on Election Day – https://theconversation.com/what-poll-watchers-can-and-cant-do-on-election-day-241544

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The 27 Club isn’t true, but it is real − a sociologist explains why myths endure and how they shape reality

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Zackary Okun Dunivin, Postdoctoral Fellow in Communication, University of California, Davis

    Many members of the 27 Club are outsize in their cultural influence. Psychology Forever/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    There’s a certain allure to the notion that some of the world’s brightest stars burn out at the age of 27. The so-called 27 Club has captivated the public imagination for half a century. Its members include legendary musicians Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin, Jim Morrison, Kurt Cobain and Amy Winehouse. The idea is as seductive as it is tragic: a convergence of talent, fame and untimely death at a singular age.

    But is there any truth to this phenomenon, or is it merely a story we tell ourselves and each other about fame and youth?

    In our newly published research, my colleague Patrick Kaminski and I explore why the 27 Club persists in culture. We didn’t set out to debunk the myth. After all, there is no reason to think that 27 is an especially dangerous age beyond superstition.

    Rather, we wanted to explore the 27 Club to understand how such a myth gains traction and affects people’s perception of reality.

    Is the 27 Club real?

    The origin of the 27 Club dates back to the early 1970s, following the deaths of Brian Jones, Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin and Jim Morrison – all at age 27, within a span of two years.

    This uncanny coincidence left its mark on collective memory. It wasn’t just their age. It was the common thread of musical genius, countercultural influence and the tragic allure of lives cut short by a cocktail of fame, drug use and the struggle of being human. The narrative is not just compelling but almost mystical in its synchronicity.

    Analyzing data from 344,156 notable deceased individuals listed on Wikipedia, we found that while there’s no increased risk of dying at 27, those who do die at that age receive significantly more public attention. Using Wikipedia page views as a proxy for fame, our study revealed that the legacies of these 27-year-olds are amplified, garnering more visibility than those who die at adjacent ages.

    This increased visibility has a strange effect: People are more likely to encounter those who died at 27 than other young ages, even if they are not aware of the myth. This in turn creates the appearance of greater risk of mortality at 27. The myth of the 27 Club is a self-fulfilling prophecy: It became “real” because we believed it.

    Why is the 27 Club a thing?

    We believe this phenomenon can be understood through three interrelated concepts: path dependence, stigmergy and memetic reification.

    Path dependence refers to how random events can set a precedent that influences future outcomes. The initial cluster of high-profile deaths at age 27 was statistically improbable – we estimate that one in 100,000 timelines would have four such famous deaths at age 27 – but it established a narrative pathway that has persisted and shaped collective reality.

    Stigmergy describes how traces of an event or action left in the environment can indirectly coordinate future events or actions. In the digital age, platforms such as Wikipedia serve as repositories of collective memory. The existence of a dedicated 27 Club page, with links to its members’ pages, increases the visibility of those who die at 27. This creates a feedback loop: The more we click, the more prominent these figures become, and the more the myth is reinforced.

    Finally, what we call memetic reification captures how beliefs can shape reality. We draw from a sociological concept called the Thomas theorem, which states that if you “define a situation as real, they are real in their consequences.” The 27 Club myth has tangible effects on cultural memory and fame. By imbuing significance into the age of 27, society elevates the legacies of those who die at that age, making the myth materially consequential.

    Why do myths endure?

    Why do such myths endure? At their core, myths are not about factual accuracy but about narratives that resonate with people. They thrive on mystery, tragedy and the human penchant for finding patterns even in randomness. The story of the 27 Club is poetic, encapsulating the fleeting nature of genius and the fragility of life. It’s a story that begs to be told and retold, regardless of its veracity.

    This isn’t an isolated phenomenon. Cultural patterns often arise from chance events that, through collective commitment and storytelling, become embedded in our understanding of the world.

    Your social world shapes what you value and how you behave.

    Consider the evolution of language – why do we call a dog a “dog”? There is nothing doggy about the word. Philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein observed that nearly all symbols are arbitrary. Some countries drive on the left side of the road while others on the right. While the choice to adopt left- or right-side traffic is influenced by neighboring countries or car producers, ultimately these followed from an arbitrary resolution to the need to pick one side or the other. These conventions began as random occurrences that, over time, became standardized and meaningful through social reinforcement.

    The 27 Club serves as a lens through which you can examine the power of mythmaking in shaping perceptions of history and reality. It highlights how collective beliefs can have real-world consequences, influencing who becomes immortalized in cultural memory. It’s a testament to the complex interplay between chance events, storytelling and the mechanisms by which myths are perpetuated.

    Though we may appear to dispel the myth of the 27 Club, let’s not abandon the story. We’re myth trusters, not myth busters. In unraveling the myth, we’re acknowledging the profound ways in which narratives influence our collective consciousness. By understanding the processes behind myth formation, we can better appreciate the richness of culture and the stories people choose to tell.

    Zackary Dunivin has received funding from the National Science Foundation Research Traineeship Grant 1735095 “Interdisciplinary Training in Complex Networks and Systems.”

    – ref. The 27 Club isn’t true, but it is real − a sociologist explains why myths endure and how they shape reality – https://theconversation.com/the-27-club-isnt-true-but-it-is-real-a-sociologist-explains-why-myths-endure-and-how-they-shape-reality-242693

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How scenario planning could help Canadian policymakers deal with American political chaos

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kevin Quigley, Scholarly Director of the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, Dalhousie University

    One of the most bizarre aspects of the United States presidential election has been how difficult it’s been to determine the truth — particularly due to Republican Donald Trump’s candidacy — and if the truth even matters.

    As former Trump advisor Anthony Scaramucci once noted about the former president: “Don’t take him literally, take him symbolically.” This advice wasn’t very helpful.

    The difficulty in determining what is true is symptomatic of the high levels of uncertainty that Canadian policymakers are confronted with regularly in their dealings with their American counterparts.

    Voters in the most powerful nation on Earth — and Canada’s neighbour and largest trading partner — are choosing between two starkly different choices on the ballot, and Canada must be attentive and adaptive across a number of policy areas.

    Three-part process

    Scenario planning provides an effective way to address such high levels of uncertainty. The method can generate difficult and radically different descriptions of the future by way of challenging participants, requiring imaginative interventions and overcoming stability and optimism biases.

    At the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance at Dalhousie University, our team used this method extensively throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, including with members of the tourism industry in early 2021. The method proved to be an effective tool for these organizations in planning for the 2021 tourism season in light of the uncertainty posed by COVID-19.

    There are typically three parts to the approach, divided by sessions. The first session establishes the goals the participants wish to achieve in light of their unique challenges and timelines. Goals vary but usually address some aspect of the medium-term success of the organization. Timelines can be anything from a few months down the road to decades from now.

    Motivating factors

    The group then discusses drivers, which are highly impactful forces beyond their immediate control that will shape the scenarios. Two drivers are selected, often based on supply-and-demand concepts.

    During the second session, participants describe four scenarios based on the two drivers, answering questions that include:

    1. What does this scenario look like?

    2. How would we arrive at this scenario?

    3. What are the underlying causes of the scenario?

    4. What are the critical failures and opportunities in this scenario?

    Finally, the group names the scenario. The four scenarios are deliberately intended to be different and extreme in order to push people beyond their comfort zones.

    At the third session, participants establish how they’re going to judge policies and operational changes knowing that any one of the four scenarios could materialize.

    Trade, economy

    In terms of scenario planning for the Canada-U.S. relationship, Canadian policymakers could consider U.S. trade policies as the first driver (liberal trade policies vs. protectionist policies) and the state of the American economy as the second driver (it either booms or it sinks into a deep recession).

    Organized as a two-by-two matrix, policymakers can explore four plausible future scenarios: either liberal or protectionist trade policies, during either an economic boom or a recession.

    Within these four scenarios, policymakers can develop criteria by which to evaluate Canadian policies knowing that any one of these four scenarios could materialize.

    There are important things to consider at the design stage.

    To start, it can be time-consuming to organize and execute the sessions. You can run remarkably simple and helpful sessions in a day, or extremely involved ones over several months.

    The number of participants is flexible. Usually it involves a small to medium-sized group, but individuals can use the two-by-two matrix to think through problems over lunch.

    Who’s there matters. We tend to invite people who represent different parts of an organization or sector. That provides legitimacy to the process and satisfies a sense of fair play, and this approach can also help participants accept the conclusions and communicate them broadly.

    At the same time, having representatives from each part of the organization can lead to turf wars. It can serve to reinforce existing institutional arrangements rather than challenge, change and in some cases abolish them. Bringing in guest speakers to share best practices from other jurisdictions can help to discuss difficult issues.

    The Ambassador Bridge, spanning the Detroit River between Windsor and Detroit, in December 2021. The trade and economic relationship between the U.S. and Canada provides lots of material for scenario planning for Canadian policymakers.
    THE CANADIAN PRESS/Fred Thornhill

    Embracing diversity

    Scenario planning exercises also favour elite groups — experts, company executives and clever high flyers who are skilled at imaginative thinking. Turning to these elite groups can be at odds with equity, diversity, inclusion and accessibility principles.

    Diverse sources of information can challenge participants to think differently and also help participants to understand the impacts of scenarios to different communities.

    Participants also need to be able to speak frankly. Values may differ, and attempts by participants to avoid saying anything controversial can crowd out more nuanced thoughts.

    Generally, egalitarian dynamics lead to consensus-seeking solutions. But this doesn’t always result in more radical transformations. In some respects, the four possible scenarios compel participants to consider quite different views, which can be helpful.

    Diverse participants in scenario planning sessions can challenge people to think differently.
    (Shutterstock)

    All of this makes discussing how to judge new programs at the third session more challenging and important.

    One way to address these challenges is to have a broad way to discuss and evaluate each strategy. Typically, we examine different parts of the strategy — how an organization gathers information, sets standards and changes behaviour internally — and different criteria by which to judge the strategies (efficiency, fairness and accountability and stability and learning).

    An experienced moderator with some professional distance from the group can help to keep the conversation on time, on subject and challenge participants when conventional wisdom starts to creep in.

    Public agencies are premised on a command-and-control dynamic, but policymakers increasingly need tools and skills that allow them to anticipate, address and communicate risks over which they have limited control.

    The U.S. election and its aftermath in the weeks and months to come are a salient and consequential example. Scenario planning allows policymakers to challenge their assumptions and have difficult conversations in light of quickly changing events in order to seize opportunities and reduce vulnerabilities.

    Kevin Quigley received funding from the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, Change Lab Action Research Network, and SSHRC for the work discussed in this article.

    – ref. How scenario planning could help Canadian policymakers deal with American political chaos – https://theconversation.com/how-scenario-planning-could-help-canadian-policymakers-deal-with-american-political-chaos-242335

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Friends like these: What a second Trump term may mean for the CDC, and how it affects Canada

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kevin Quigley, Scholarly Director of the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, Dalhousie University

    Should Donald Trump be re-elected on Tuesday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is likely facing a major shake-up. Many Republicans were frustrated by the CDC’s performance during the pandemic. Project 2025, authored by leading Republicans with ties to Trump, describes the CDC as incompetent and arrogant.

    In fact, no matter who wins the United States presidential election on Nov. 5, the Trump administration’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic is a cautionary tale for Canada.

    While there is significant and justifiable criticism to be leveled at Trump about his administration’s handling of the pandemic in the early stages, as former chief medical advisor to the president, Dr. Anthony Fauci noted to Congress in 2024, the U.S. health system is not designed for an effective co-ordinated response to a health crisis.

    Trump and the CDC

    There was clearly a disconnect between Trump and the CDC during the pandemic. For weeks in early 2020, President Trump had described the threat as low risk; he said that the situation was under control in the U.S. and that only a few cases had been reported.

    While the president was on a return flight from India, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC, announced that the situation in the U.S. was about to change quickly and severely. Officials say that Trump was very upset by the announcement and concerned about potential lockdowns causing panic and disruption to financial markets.

    Throughout the early stages of the pandemic, the actions of the CDC sparked a high degree of politicization. The Trump administration was criticized for interfering with the CDC’s operations and censoring internal experts. Disagreements between federal and state political leaders and public health experts led to inconsistencies in public health messaging, reporting, enforcement of directives and timing of public health restrictions.

    The CDC itself was not above criticism. The agency’s infrastructure had been neglected for decades, and years of declining funding resulted in insufficient preparations for a possible pandemic. The CDC had also been criticized for being too insular and academic.

    The CDC made key mistakes, particularly regarding surveillance and testing. It was criticized for underestimating the threat of the virus and overestimating its ability to design, manufacture and distribute a test quickly.

    Rapid responses are crucial during such events, and the early stages of the U.S.’s pandemic response provides salient lessons for Canada, both about its relationship with the U.S. and to global threats more generally.

    Pre-event planning is necessary, but audits and world rankings of emergency preparedness can be unreliable. In 2019, Johns Hopkins University ranked the U.S. as the best prepared country in the world to address a health crisis. The pandemic demonstrated that it was not.

    Canada needs to establish a strong and independent capacity to assess health threats. Trump’s early handling of the pandemic has been widely criticized, yet the Canadian government’s speaking points in the early stages were the same: the virus was low risk. It was only when the CDC and the World Health Organization increased its threat assessment that Canada followed suit.

    Lessons from the pandemic

    Borders can re-assert themselves. Despite decades of global political and economic agreements that saw a freer flow of goods, services and people, many western governments were unable or unwilling to assume the risks associated with letting those from other jurisdictions cross their borders, and as such, imposed strict rules to prevent non-citizens from entering. This aggressive stance was ironic and unforeseen, as during previous public health crises such as the H1N1 flu episode in 2009-10, many governments underscored that closing borders had little impact on disease spread.

    The weaknesses of supply chains were highlighted as the global economy shut down in March 2020. Canada’s Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland described competition for medical supplies and personal protective equipment (PPE) as resembling the “wild west.” Shipment delays, order shortages, trade restrictions and defective or contaminated items prevented governments from effectively procuring supplies.

    Global manufacturing capabilities for vaccines were below what was needed, with only about a dozen countries able to produce COVID-19 vaccines early on, including the U.S. More than any other country, the U.S. enabled the rapid development and production of the vaccine, highlighting Canada’s considerable dependence on the U.S. Canada has since funded vaccine manufacturing initiatives, but the investments have produced little to-date.

    The adage “When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold” applies nowhere more than in Canada. Should Trump be re-elected, the CDC will likely exist on a smaller budget with a reduced role internationally. This will increase Canadian vulnerabilities.

    Whatever the criticisms, the CDC has more capacity and influence than any other health agency in the world. If Canada cannot depend on strong and co-ordinated response from the U.S. administration during a health crisis, Canada has to be better prepared to adapt. Lessons from the pandemic provide a powerful to-do list.

    Kevin Quigley is the Scholarly Director of the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, an independent, non-partisan research institute located at Dalhousie University.

    – ref. Friends like these: What a second Trump term may mean for the CDC, and how it affects Canada – https://theconversation.com/friends-like-these-what-a-second-trump-term-may-mean-for-the-cdc-and-how-it-affects-canada-242673

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Quincy Jones mastered the art of arrangement, transforming simple tunes into epic soundscapes

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jose Valentino Ruiz, Associate Professsor of Music Business and Entrepreneurship, University of Florida

    Quincy Jones left his indelible touch on some of the 20th century’s most iconic albums. Arnold Turner/Getty Images for Netflix

    On the sleeve notes of some of the most memorable and best-selling albums of all time, you’ll find the words “Produced and arranged by Quincy Jones.”

    It was a hallmark of quality.

    Jones, who died on Nov. 3, 2024, at the age of 91, transformed our understanding of musical arrangement. His work spanned decades and genres, from jazz and pop to hip-hop and film scoring. He worked with pop icons like Michael Jackson, Frank Sinatra, Ray Charles and Aretha Franklin, and also collaborated with lesser-known artists such as Lesley Gore and Tevin Campbell.

    Each of his projects, collaborations and forays into new genres redefined what it meant to arrange music.

    As a music business and entrepreneurship professor, I’ve studied and taught Jones’ techniques, which I hope can inspire the next generation of musicians.

    A master musical architect

    Musical arrangement might seem like an abstract concept.

    Simply put, it’s the art of deciding how a song unfolds. While a composer writes the melody and harmony, an arranger shapes the experience, choosing which instruments play when, how textures build and where dynamics shift.

    Arrangement transforms a song from notes on paper into a fully realized piece of art that resonates with listeners. In essence, an arranger acts as a musical architect, designing the structure of a song to tell a compelling story.

    Jones brought a visionary approach to arranging. He wasn’t merely filling in the gaps around a melody with a drum beat here and a horn section there; he was crafting a musical narrative that gave each instrument a purpose, guiding listeners through an emotional journey.

    From his early work in the 1950s and 1960s with jazz greats like Count Basie and R&B star Ray Charles, to his blockbuster productions with Michael Jackson, Jones saw arrangement as a tool to guide listeners from one musical moment to the next.

    Elevating voices

    His work on “Sinatra at the Sands” is but one example.

    Jones created lush, energetic big-band arrangements that perfectly complemented Sinatra’s smooth, warm voice. The choice of brass swells and the dynamic shifts amplified Sinatra’s charisma, turning the album into a lively, almost-cinematic experience. Unlike many arrangements, which often stay in the background, Jones’ took center stage, blending harmoniously with Sinatra’s vocals while adding depth and excitement to the entire performance.

    In Ray Charles’ “I Can’t Stop Loving You,” Jones used orchestral swells and background vocals to bring out the soul in Charles’ voice, creating a richly emotional experience for listeners. By intelligently pairing Charles’ gospel-tinged vocals with a polished, orchestral arrangement, Jones captured the tension between sorrow and resilience – a demonstration of his ability to communicate complex emotions through arrangement.

    Ray Charles, left, shares a laugh with Quincy Jones in 2004.
    George Pimentel/WireImage for NARAS via Getty Images

    Turning songs into stories

    Jones’ skill at using arrangement as a storytelling device was exemplified by his collaboration with Jackson.

    Albums like “Thriller” and “Off the Wall” showcased Jones’ knack for inventively layering sounds. On “Thriller,” Jones combined electronic and acoustic elements to create a multidimensional soundscape that set a new standard for production.

    His ability to incorporate textures, background vocals and unique instrument choices – such as horror actor Vincent Price’s iconic narration on the song “Thriller” – transformed pop music, setting the stage for future producers to experiment with storytelling in their own arrangements.

    In Jackson’s “Bad,” Jones pushed the boundaries of genre by blending funk rhythms with pop structures, giving Jackson’s music a timeless appeal.

    The title track’s arrangement has layers of rhythm and harmony that build a feeling of tension and power, enhancing Jackson’s message of confidence and defiance. Each instrument and background vocal in “Bad” serves a purpose, creating a sound that is bold, exciting and engaging.

    Lessons for educators

    For educators teaching music production and commercial music, Jones’ approach provides a gold mine of practical lessons.

    First, his commitment to genre fusion teaches students the importance of versatility. Jones’ career demonstrates that blending jazz, pop, funk and even classical elements can create something innovative and accessible. Students can learn to break free from the constraints of single-genre production, seeing instead how various musical styles can work together to create fresh, engaging sounds.

    Quincy Jones, pictured here with Michael Jackson, won 28 Grammys during his career.
    Chris Walter/WireImage via Getty Images

    Second, Jones’ emphasis on storytelling through arrangement offers students a framework for making music that resonates.

    In my classes, I encourage students to ask themselves: How does each musical element support the emotional arc of the song? By studying Jones’ arrangements, students learn to think of themselves as storytellers, not just sound engineers. They can begin to see arrangement as an art form in itself – one that has the power to captivate audiences by drawing them into a musical journey.

    Finally, Jones’ work shows the power of collaboration. His willingness to work across genres and with a variety of artists – each bringing unique perspectives – demonstrates the value of open-mindedness and adaptability.

    His life’s work serves as a reminder that music is more than just sound; it’s an experience shaped by careful, intentional decisions, with every sound and silence in a piece of music serving a purpose.

    Jose Valentino Ruiz is the CEO of JV Music Enterprises.

    – ref. Quincy Jones mastered the art of arrangement, transforming simple tunes into epic soundscapes – https://theconversation.com/quincy-jones-mastered-the-art-of-arrangement-transforming-simple-tunes-into-epic-soundscapes-242877

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canada and churches have moral obligations for the reparations of missing and disappeared Indigenous children: Final Report

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Frank Deer, Professor, Faculty of Education, University of Manitoba

    Independent Special Interlocutor Kimberly Murray has released her final report after two years of examining the issue of missing and disappeared Indigenous children and unmarked burials sites at residential schools in Canada.

    During the ceremony last week in Gatineau, Que., Murray said governments do not often implement recommendations given on such reports. So she opted to identify 42 “legal, moral and ethical obligations” for governments, churches and other institutions. These are proposals on how to make holistic reparations to Indigenous Peoples.

    Murray emphasized that the children were “victims of enforced disappearance.”

    Since the 1870s and continuing for more than 150 years, over 150,000 First Nations, Métis and Inuit children were taken from their families and forced to attend church-run, government-funded residential schools. The National Centre for Truth and Reconciliation has documented more than 4,100 deaths of children at the schools.

    After potential unmarked graves were identified at former residential school sites, the Canadian government appointed Murray to make recommendations on unmarked graves and burial sites.

    The report, “Sites of Truth, Sites of Conscience” focuses on aspects of the Indian Residential School experience: unaccounted missing children, unmarked grave sites, the roles of government and churches in the Indian Residential School genocide and failure to maintain records of the deaths and burials of deceased children.

    The report centres Indigenous strategies for research and advances a framework of reparations to “support the search for and recovery of the missing and disappeared children and unmarked burials.” It is an extension of the work of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada (TRC) whose final report devoted an entire volume toward missing children and unmarked burials. The newest report is even more bold than the Final Report of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada.

    The TRC report observed that “the most basic of questions about missing children — Who died? Why did they die? Where are they buried? — have never been addressed or comprehensively documented by the Canadian Government.”

    Since the TRC report was released in 2015, efforts to investigate this issue of missing children and unmarked graves has increased significantly.

    CBC News report: Special interlocutor on Unmarked Graves and Burial Sites issues final report.

    Reconciliation and reparations

    Murray explores the issue of genocide in the Indian Residential School system in ways that indict the Canadian government and other institutions of crimes.

    The report says Canada must refer to “the enforced disappearance of children,” as a “crime against humanity” and the issue needs to be taken to the International Criminal Court. It further states that the “federal government and other institutions have worked harder to protect perpetrators than they ever did to protect Indigenous children, families, and communities,” and that Canada has embraced a culture of “settler amnesia and willful forgetting.”

    In support of this indictment, Murray shows how the government and church were not only responsible for acts of omission in that somehow failed to protect Indigenous children in their care. Instead, they were acts of commission: deliberately created situations in which Indigenous children in their care were severely harmed.

    Murray refers to this as forced disappearances — when the liberty of Indigenous children is taken away and their fate was concealed.

    In addition, the Independent Special Interlocutor also focuses on, among other things, our moral and ethical obligations as foundational frames for reparations.

    A moral framework

    Murray put forth 42 obligations that reflect the morally and ethically centred responsibilities of governments, churches and other institutions.

    These moral and ethical responsibilities inform the reparations that Murray articulates in her report.

    These responsibilities and obligations include:

    • Calls for long-term financial support of investigations into missing and disappeared Indigenous children and Indian Residential School burial sites

    • Support for survivors

    • The recording of their stories

    Core values

    Underlining the report is a moral principal that efforts to find missing children and unmarked graves must be Indigenous-led.

    These moral principles, this foundation for action, articulated by Murray, can provide a compelling rationale that may help change attitudes and action.

    The recent report puts forth several moral and ethical principles which we need to consider.

    One of the report’s powerful statements is:

    “Children must be cared for in life and after death.”

    This might seem to some a simple point that is obvious and even unnecessary. However, the distance between such important declarations and the policies of Canadian governments and institutions has been vast.

    That this particular principle refers to the importance of care “after death” ought to be familiar to any of us who’ve lost loved ones. However, stating it clearly here strengthens the point that government and other institutions have obligations to children who died in their care.

    Another important principle from the report is that “search and recovery work is sacred.”

    The need to discover who died, the reasons why they died, and the location of their remains is one so connected to the emotional well-being of living descendants and fellow community members that it is a spiritual journey.

    This is why the search and recovery processes must be Indigenous-led.

    This report, like the TRC’s and the final report of the National Inquiry into Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls, contains demands for action that should be accepted and acted upon by governments and institutions.

    The moral and ethical principles that inform those demands can be as important for informing change. It is in these principles that we may find moral guidance and direction toward righteousness.

    We may also find, if we’re paying attention, our humanity.

    Frank Deer receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. Canada and churches have moral obligations for the reparations of missing and disappeared Indigenous children: Final Report – https://theconversation.com/canada-and-churches-have-moral-obligations-for-the-reparations-of-missing-and-disappeared-indigenous-children-final-report-242560

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Research and news relevance key factors driving the future of The Conversation – edition founder

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen Khan, Editor

    I took a walk through the beautiful campus of Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island recently, as I was in the city for the annual gathering of the various editions of The Conversation.

    This project follows a devolved model, providing local leadership and engagement with the higher education and research sectors that support it in different parts of the world. Alongside me on this sunny stroll through one of the world’s great educational neighbourhoods was Alfred Hermida, Professor at the University of British Columbia School of Journalism.

    Alf and I don’t see a huge amount of each other, but when we do it tends to be pretty productive. We first met in July 2014 at an event at the University of Amsterdam, where I stood in for The Conversation founder Andrew Jaspan, and delivered a speech on the establishment of the project – then it only existed in Australia and the UK. Alf was pretty taken with the story, and the unique model. Less than a week later he was in our newsroom at City, University of London, talking to our editors about his research into social media and news.

    But something else was going on in Alf’s head – something about discussions he’d had previously with his colleague Professor Mary Lynn Young that Canada could have its own edition of The Conversation. And for the next couple of years he and Mary-Lynn together built the case within the country’s higher education sector for a membership-supported Conversation Canada. It launched in 2017 under the remarkable leadership of Scott White and now forms one of the most important and valued parts of the global network.

    So it was great to see Alf and note the edition’s success. But it was also fascinating to hear about his ongoing research and insights into the changing media landscape, both in Canada and internationally. Among the trends Alf and colleagues have noticed recently is that many students no longer arrive harboring ambitions of working for big media players. In part, he feels, this is down the decline of such full-career opportunities. But he also hears from students that they don’t see themselves reflected in the legacy news outlets. Instead it is the small independent players and even solo operations now excite many aspiring journalists more than traditional newsrooms.

    Brown university campus in Providence, Rhode Island.
    Author provided, CC BY

    “I have a global cohort of journalism students in class,” said Alf. “Many are driven by a sense of mission, looking to address the way journalism has historically marginalized or mispresented diverse communities. They look to journalism as a way of making the world a better place and are drawn to new journalism start-ups that are looking to reimagine what journalism is and could be.”

    Alf views the Conversation as part of this shift in how journalism is done. As I’ve written before, we are sometimes asked if what we do really is journalism. I’ve suggested that it may not matter, so long as our content is valuable, trusted and accessible. Alf goes further though, arguing that the production method deployed by The Conversation and pursuit of informed, evidence-based reporting
    that drives it, makes it fundamentally journalism, albeit of a different style to that which typified the newspaper era.

    Alf explained: “The scholars who write for The Conversation are taking on journalistic practices, guided and mentored by our team of professional journalists. While the authors are not journalists in the traditional sense, they are producing journalism that seeks to explain and interpret the world around us to help the public lead better lives. This is what journalism is all about.”

    As for the route ahead for The Conversation Canada, and the network more broadly, Alf, as you might expect (and hope), grounds some of his thoughts in research. Indeed, in research conducted by one of his graduate journalism students.

    Savannah Parsons considered traffic to The Conversation Canada late in 2023 as part of her study, and sought to ascertain what type of content drew readers in, and what kept them there. The picture is of course mixed, but there is a clear pattern that illustrates that expert engagement with news and events is a central factor in bringing readers to the website and our content more broadly. However, Parsons’ study also indicated that content we might traditionally describe as “more featurey”, that is, less tied to events, perhaps more narrative and perhaps even taking the form of audio rather than – or as well as – text, plays a vital role in building a loyal audience that will return to Conversation content, time after time.

    So, as was ever the case, there is a mix to be considered. And it will be for edition leads to decide exactly how that mix is deployed, and in what form, to suit individual markets. But it is clear to Alf, and I think to most of us at The Conversation, that news-relevance, timeliness and, of course, research, will be the central factors driving the project through its second decade.

    – ref. Research and news relevance key factors driving the future of The Conversation – edition founder – https://theconversation.com/research-and-news-relevance-key-factors-driving-the-future-of-the-conversation-edition-founder-242812

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The evolutionary benefits of being forgetful

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sven Vanneste, Professor of Clinical Neuroscience, Trinity College Dublin

    Don’t despair! Asier Romero

    Forgetting is part of our daily lives. You may walk into a room only to forget why you went in there – or perhaps someone says hi on the street and you can’t remember their name.

    But why do we forget things? Is it simply a sign of memory impairment, or are there benefits?

    One of the earliest findings in this area highlighted that forgetting can occur simply because the average person’s memories fade away. This comes from 19th century German psychologist Hermann Ebbinghaus, whose “forgetting curve” showed how most people forget the details of new information quite rapidly, but this tapers off over time. More recently, this has been replicated by neuroscientists.

    The forgetting curve:


    Cloud Assess

    Forgetting can also serve functional purposes, however. Our brains are bombarded with information constantly. If we were to remember every detail, it would become increasingly difficult to retain the important information.

    One of the ways that we avoid this is by not paying sufficient attention in the first place. Nobel prize winner Eric Kandel, and a host of subsequent research, suggest that memories are formed when the connections (synapses) between the cells in the brain (the neurons) are strengthened.

    Paying attention to something can strengthen those connections and sustain that memory. This same mechanism enables us to forget all the irrelevant details that we encounter each day. So although people show increased signs of being distracted as they age, and memory-related disorders such as Alzheimer’s disease are associated with attention impairments, we all need to be able to forget all the unimportant details in order to create memories.

    Handling new information

    Recalling a memory can sometimes also lead to it changing for the purposes of coping with new information. Suppose your daily commute involves driving the same route every day. You probably have a strong memory for this route, with the underlying brain connections strengthened by each journey.

    But suppose one Monday, one of your usual roads is closed, and there’s a new route for the next three weeks. Your memory for the journey needs to be flexible enough to incorporate this new information. One way in which the brain does this is by weakening some of the memory connections, while strengthening new additional connections to remember the new route.

    Ever reach the office and barely even remember driving there?
    Twinster Photo

    Clearly, an inability to update our memories would have significant negative consequences. Consider PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder), where an inability to update or forget a traumatic memory means an individual is perpetually triggered by reminders in their environment.

    From an evolutionary standpoint, forgetting old memories in response to new information is undoubtedly beneficial. Our hunter-gatherer ancestors might have repeatedly visited a safe water hole, only to one day discover a rival settlement, or a bear with newborn cubs there. Their brains had to be able to update the memory to label this location as no longer safe. Failure to do so would have been a threat to their survival.

    Reactivating memories

    Sometimes, forgetting may not be due to memory loss, but to changes in our ability to access memories. Rodent research has demonstrated how forgotten memories can be remembered (or reactivated) by supporting the synaptic connections mentioned above.

    Rodents were taught to associate something neutral (like a bell ringing) with something unpleasant (like a mild shock to the foot). After several repetitions, the rodents formed a “fear memory” where hearing the bell made them react as though they expected a shock. The researchers were able to isolate the neuronal connections which were activated by pairing the bell and the shock, in the part of the brain known as the amygdala.

    They then wondered if artificially activating these neurons would make the rodents act as if they expected their foot to be shocked even if there was no bell and no shock. They did this using a technique called optogenetic stimulation, which involves using light and genetic engineering, and showed that it was indeed possible to activate (and subsequently inactivate) such memories.

    One way that this might be relevant to humans is through a type of transient forgetting which might not be due to memory loss. Return to the earlier example where you see someone in the street and can’t remember their name. Perhaps you believe you know the first letter, and you’ll get the name in a moment. This is known as the tip-of-the-tongue phenomenon.

    When this was originally studied by American psychologists Roger Brown and David McNeill in the 1960s, they reported that people’s ability to identify aspects of the missing word was better than chance. This suggested that the information was not fully forgotten.

    ‘It’ll come back to me.’
    Kyttan

    One theory is that the phenomenon occurs as a result of weakened connections in memory between the words and their meanings, reflecting difficulty in remembering the desired information.

    However, another possibility is that the phenomenon might serve as a signal to the individual that the information is not forgotten, only currently inaccessible.

    This might explain why it occurs more frequently as people age and become more knowledgeable, meaning their brains have to sort through more information to remember something. The tip of the tongue phenomenon might be their brain’s means of letting them know that the desired information is not forgotten, and that perseverance may lead to successful remembering.

    In sum, we may forget information for a host of reasons. Because we weren’t paying attention or because information decays over time. We may forget in order to update memories. And sometimes forgotten information is not permanently lost, but rather inaccessible. All these forms of forgetting help our brain to function efficiently, and have supported our survival over many generations.

    This is certainly not to minimise the negative outcomes caused by people becoming very forgetful (for example, through Alzheimer’s disease). Nonetheless, forgetting has its evolutionary advantages. We only hope that you’ve found this article sufficiently interesting that you won’t forget its contents in a hurry.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The evolutionary benefits of being forgetful – https://theconversation.com/the-evolutionary-benefits-of-being-forgetful-242629

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Maia Sandu’s victory in second round of Moldovan election show’s limits to Moscow’s meddling

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

    Following a campaign marred by widespread and credible allegations of massive interference by Russia and pro-Russian proxies, Moldova’s incumbent president, Maia Sandu, has won another term in the second round of presidential elections.

    According to preliminary results published by the country’s central electoral commission on November 3, Sandu beat her second-round challenger, Alexandr Stoianoglo, with 55% of the vote and on a higher turnout than in the first round of elections on October 20.

    There were more than 180,000 votes between the incumbent and her challenger. In a country with an electorate of just over three million people, this is a significant margin, especially when compared with the razor-thin yes vote in the EU referendum that was on the same day as the first round of the presidential election two weeks ago. In that election, Sandu came first with 42%, compared to Staionoglo’s 26%, but in the EU poll, just 10,000 votes separated the yes and the no votes.

    Sandu, who campaigned on a strongly pro-European platform, prevailed despite pro-Russian interference and fearmongering and a campaign by Stoianoglo that emphasised the importance of good relations with both Moscow and Brussels.

    Moldova’s election result will certainly have come as a relief not only to Sandu and her supporters but also to Moldova’s western partners. It is the first time that a popularly elected president has won a second term in the tiny landlocked former Soviet satellite. The country borders Romania and Ukraine and has a small but significant Russian breakaway region, Transnistria, as a constant reminder of Moscow’s influence in the region.

    Moldova’s election presents a clear difference to the Georgian parliamentary election results on October 26, which saw an openly pro-Russian Georgian Dream party win an election considered as neither particularly free nor fair, in results that the Georgia’s opposition-aligned president and western pollsters allege have been rigged.

    Sandu’s win, by contrast, demonstrates both the appeal of the idea of a European future and the limits of Russian interference. Yet the understandable enthusiasm about the result in Moldova also needs to be tempered by a more careful analysis of some of the deeply entrenched societal cleavages that the elections have all but confirmed and the difficulties that lie ahead.

    Deep divisions

    Sandu’s win overall looks impressive. But she did not win the vote in Moldova itself, where Stoianoglo beat her by some 30,000 votes. What saved Sandu, like the EU referendum, was the strong support for her among voters in the diaspora, where she captured almost five times as many votes as Stoianoglo.

    Just over 270,000 votes (83%) of the votes cast by Moldovans living abroad, predominantly in western Europe and north America, saw her comfortably across the finishing line. There may be good reasons not to distinguish between votes from inside and outside Moldova – but the optics are not good.

    Nor can the overall margin of Sandu’s victory gloss over the fact that her supporters inside the country are predominantly concentrated in the capital and the centre of the country. In the capital Chisinau, in the centre of Moldova, Sandu won with 57%, representing almost one-third of her total vote inside the country. In the north and south of the country, Stoianoglo generally took the largest vote share.

    In the country’s second-largest city, Balti in the north, he won 70% of the vote, compared to Sandu’s 30%. In the southern autonomous region of Gagauzia, a hotbed of pro-Russian, anti-European activism, Sandu obtained less than 3%. In Transnistria, Sandu came away with just 20% of the vote.

    Map of Moldova showing the breakaway regions of Transnistria and Gaugazia.
    Institute for the Study of War

    These results are not surprising, given the outcome of the first round of the elections. But they represent fall in support for Sandu compared to in 2020, when she beat the then incumbent, socialist party leader Igor Dodon. Four years ago, Sandu obtained over 250,000 votes more than Dodon, winning almost 58% of the total vote. While she took the overwhelming share of the diaspora vote then as well, she also bested Dodon in most constituencies in the south.

    Dodon campaigned for Stoianoglo in this election, but much of the challenger’s support was very probably due to a massive pro-Russian interference campaign that capitalised on many Moldovans’ fears and frustrations. Pro-Moscow messages aimed to capitalise on fears about being dragged into Russia’s war against Ukraine.

    But there was also frustration with a government that has made little progress on much needed anti-corruption reforms and presided over a serious cost-of-living crisis in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic and made worse by the war on Moldova’s eastern neighbour. Sandu’s party, the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won a commanding majority in the 2021 elections – so failures of the government are seen as failures of Sandu and her agenda.

    Challenges ahead

    That Sandu won the presidency again, and against these odds, demonstrates her resilience. But it can’t be taken for granted that her party will similarly prevail in parliamentary elections due by the autumn of 2025. She may well be forced into a difficult cohabitation with a potentially socialist-led government next year. In a parliamentary democracy, in which the powers of the government by far exceed those of the president, this could significantly slow down Moldova’s EU accession negotiations.

    But there are also some silver linings on the horizon. That Sandu won clearly demonstrates the limits of Russian interference. There is a core part of the Moldovan electorate that cannot be swayed by Russian misinformation or vote buying. This is a basis on which Sandu and PAS can build.

    Perhaps more importantly, Sandu and Stoianoglo both sent conciliatory signals on election eve. Stoianoglo emphasised the importance of respecting the outcome of the democratic process and expressed the hope that Moldovans would now move beyond hatred and division. Sandu acknowledged the concerns of those who had not voted for her and promised to serve as the president of all Moldovans and to work for the country’s further development.

    If they both stay true to their word, Moldova may finally break with a past of repeated political crises and economic stagnation.

    Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

    – ref. Maia Sandu’s victory in second round of Moldovan election show’s limits to Moscow’s meddling – https://theconversation.com/maia-sandus-victory-in-second-round-of-moldovan-election-shows-limits-to-moscows-meddling-242796

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Divination in early modern Britain sought signs in swine, the stars and scripture

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Martha McGill, Historian of Supernatural Beliefs, University of Warwick

    The Fortune-Teller by Caravaggio (1595-8). Louvre Museum

    In the late 1740s, Samuel Meadwell arrived in London. A “raw country fellow” from Northamptonshire, he had come to work as a distiller’s apprentice and hoped to make his fortune.

    When a pair of women told him there was “something very particular in [his] face”, he was intrigued. They introduced him to a widow called Mary Smith, who allegedly practised “the art of astrology, before very great people, princes, and the like”. She persuaded Meadwell to wrap all his money in a handkerchief with two peppercorns, some salt and a little mould. After waiting three hours, she explained, he would discover a great fortune.

    Meadwell discovered only that his money had been replaced with scraps of metal. Smith was deported for fraud, while Meadwell learned a lesson about city life. He bemoaned his naivety – but he was not alone in believing in the power of astrologers, or the potential for magical methods to reveal weighty secrets.

    In early modern Britain (1500-1750), divination was widespread. People consulted diviners to find stolen goods, learn about the next harvest, or scrutinise their marriage fortunes. Sometimes they wanted to know what diseases or disasters loomed, and several nobles exhibited an unwholesome interest in the monarch’s date of demise.

    The sex of unborn children was another topic of speculation: when Anne Boleyn gave birth to the future Elizabeth I in 1533, she disappointed not only Henry VIII, but also a whole host of “astrologers, sorcerers, and sorceresses” who had assured the couple that a male heir was forthcoming.

    Diviners came from across the social spectrum. Learned astrologers could command audiences with kings and queens. Most people, however, relied on the services of a local cunning-man or woman.

    There were also so-called “Egyptian” fortunetellers who roamed the country reading palms. These travellers probably did not have African origins. A hostile 1673 work claimed that they were “great pretenders” who sought to dupe “the ignorant” by associating themselves with Egyptians, “a people heretofore very famous for astronomy, natural magic, [and] the art of divination”.

    The authorities did not approve. In 1530, an act passed by Henry VIII’s parliament sought to expel “Egyptians” from the country, complaining that they conned people using “great, subtle, and crafty means” such as fortunetelling.

    Underpinning many divinatory methods was the belief that God’s divine plan was encoded in the patterns of the natural world. Palmistry relied on interpreting the marks God had traced on the body. Astrologers, meanwhile, focused on the movements of the planets.

    Between 1658 and 1664, a woman called Sarah Jinner published almanacks containing astrological readings for the forthcoming year. She ranged from predicting “desperate and unreconciliable wars” to cautioning women that: “We find Mercury in Pisces retrograde in the 6th House, [which] denoteth that servants will generally be cross, vexatious, and intolerable, especially maidservants.”

    Meeting a Swine. From Dr Solman’s translation of Aristotle’s Golden Cabinet of Secrets (c. 1690).

    The behaviour of animals was also considered portentous. A pamphlet from circa 1690 declared that “to meet a swine the first thing in a morning, carrying straw in its mouth, denotes a maid, or widow, shall soon be married, and very fruitful in children”. On the other hand, magpies flying around you signified “much strife and brawling in marriage”.

    When a great murmuration of starlings was spied battling in the air above Cork in 1621, people whispered that it signified divine anger. Eight months later the city was devastated by a fire.

    Other divination practices relied on chance. Cheap pamphlets outlined ways of divining with dice, the idea being that God determined the outcome. Another practice was to open a Bible randomly and consult the first passage that caught the eye. Bibles could alternatively be used to catch thieves. The usual method was to insert a key into the Bible, recite the names of the suspects, and wait for the Bible or the key to move.

    A similar technique involved suspending a sieve from a pair of shears. The sieve would rotate when a thief’s name was mentioned.

    Divination and the authorities

    These practices were viewed with suspicion by the ecclesiastical and secular authorities, especially after the 16th-century Reformation.

    Divination by the sieve and shears in Cornelius Agrippa, De Occulta Philosophia (1567).
    Opera Omnia

    A Welsh scholar warned in 1711 that using the Bible as an “instrument of prognostication” was “the greatest insult that anyone can give to the scriptures”. Church courts punished people for the “devilry” of divining with a sieve and shears.

    Most dangerous of all was divination by consulting spirits. The Scottish cunning-man Andrew Man claimed to have an angelic adviser, Christsonday, who told him whether upcoming years would be good or bad. He was also in a sexual relationship with the Fairy Queen, who had promised to teach him to “know all things”. Leading local figures concluded that Man had really been cavorting with devils. He was tried for witchcraft, and executed in 1598.

    In general, however, cunning-folk enjoyed good standing within their communities. Currents of scepticism flowed faster during the 18th-century Enlightenment. A 1762 work expressed a common view when it blamed belief in divination on the “ignorance and darkness” that “covered the minds of mankind”. But divinatory practices were themselves a quest for enlightenment, and the prospect of unravelling the mysteries of the future has remained compelling up to the present day.


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    Martha McGill receives funding from the British Academy.

    – ref. Divination in early modern Britain sought signs in swine, the stars and scripture – https://theconversation.com/divination-in-early-modern-britain-sought-signs-in-swine-the-stars-and-scripture-241825

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Cop16: the world’s largest meeting to save nature has ended with no clear path ahead

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Harriet Bulkeley, Professor of Geography, Durham University

    Increasing rights for Indigenous people and local communities was one of the few steps forward at Cop16. Philipp Montenegro, CC BY-NC-ND

    Progress at the UN’s biodiversity summit, Cop16, in Cali, Columbia, has been slow. Frustratingly so.

    There were high hopes that the Colombian hosts could coordinate action between developed and developing countries towards reaching the landmark global biodiversity agreement reached in Montreal, Canada at Cop15 two years ago. But after two weeks and one long night, negotiations ended abruptly. Many delegates had to leave to catch flights home with key issues unresolved.

    This conference started with alarming news that the latest edition of the red list – the official record of threatened species – shows that more than one third of tree species face extinction in the wild. That’s more than the number of threatened birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians combined.

    Urging negotiators to recognise the seriousness of this nature crisis, Colombia’s president Gustavo Petro warned they were facing “the battle for life”.

    There was certainly no shortage of people seeking solutions.

    In the heart of the city, Cop16’s green zone hosted vibrant music, film screenings, indigenous arts and crafts. Local people, businesses and conference delegates discussed creative and collaborative ways to address the nature crisis.

    Over in the blue zone, the official conference space, there was a notable increase in the diversity of communities participating across side events and pavilions. The links between biodiversity and human health were highlighted. So too was the importance of nature for water and food security.

    In his opening video message, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres urged countries gathered to “engage all of society” as “la Cop de la gente” (a Cop of the people).

    So protests from Indigenous people and local communities were particularly powerful. Including greater recognition for these groups in the final decisions from the meeting was a rare sign of progress. A new fund to ensure that these groups would receive a share of the profits from the commercial use of digital sequence information – genetic information from native plants and animals – was another victory.

    A new set of principles developed by the UK government to prioritise gender issues in conservation and ensure fair access to the benefits biodiversity action for all marginalised groups received widespread support.

    The focus on economic resilience was more prominent than ever, with two days dedicated to business and finance. In 2018, only 300 businesses attended Cop14 in Egypt. In Cali, this number was 3,000.

    Delegates assemble for the negotiations at Cop16​.
    Philipp Montenegro, CC BY-NC-ND

    Private investors, pension funds, the insurance industry and public banks stressed the importance of creating robust measures of biodiversity improvement. Business sectors focused on transition plans that could support fair and transparent means of reporting progress. The nature tech sector is growing too, with start-ups expected to attract up to $2 billion (£1.5 billion) in investments by the end of 2024.

    Back in the negotiating halls, delegates faced an uphill struggle. Only 44 out of 196 national plans to protect biodiversity have been updated to reflect the new targets. So, it’s no surprise that a gap is widening between current reality and the ambitious set of 23 targets which governments must reach by 2030. While countries agreed to a progress review in 2026, no consensus was reached on the indicators to be used. Progress was painfully slow.

    Negotiators debated how the global agreement on biodiversity should interact with its sister conventions on climate and desertification. Further discussions next year might identify how this could work but this probably won’t lead to drastic change. Some countries, including India and Russia, still seemed unwilling to accept the critical risks posed to nature and society of exceeding the 1.5°C global target for climate change.

    Many developing nations were concerned that greater integration between the climate crisis and biodiversity would lead to “double counting” of funding with the danger that developed countries could backtrack on their promises to support dedicated action on nature. Others, including the EU, argued that action to conserve and restore nature was an essential part of tackling all environmental and societal global challenges.

    The deadlock between these positions continued for days. In the final hours of Cop16, negotiators reached a compromise that sets out a more integrated pathway for bringing action on climate and nature together. While the effects of climate change directly exacerbate biodiversity loss, restoring nature can be a powerful tool in the fight to mitigate the climate crisis and benefit biodiversity. Nature-based solutions – measures like restoring peatlands and wetlands, planting trees and mangroves – help build that resilience.

    Heads of state and ministers joining at the midpoint of the meeting pointed out the need to ensure that nature is protected both for its own sake and for the communities that depend on healthy ecosystems for their livelihood and wellbeing.

    But at the end of a long final night, these words were not accompanied by concrete plans for action or the financial commitments about how nature protection should be paid for that many at Cop16 were hoping for.

    Whole of society, all of government?

    The global biodiversity agreement set in 2022 called for a whole of society approach to address the nature crisis. Cop16 certainly delivered. From local communities to huge businesses, there was a spirit of rolling up sleeves and putting investment and innovation to work using nature-based solutions to restore and conserve biodiversity.

    One of many packed side-events which bought the ‘whole of society’ together at Cop16.
    Philipp Montenegro, CC BY-NC-ND

    The same energy and commitment was clear from many of the local and sub-national governments assembled at Cop16. The first gathering of Mayors for Nature demonstrated significant commitment to action.

    Leaders from California and Quebec set the tone by investing in large-scale programmes, with Quebec not only committing to fund their own biodiversity action but also contributing to the global biodiversity fund – the first regional government to do so.

    But national governments struggled to move forward. The complexity of addressing biodiversity and its necessary interactions with sectors such as agriculture, transport and mining, as well as concerns over historic injustices between developing and developed countries, was perhaps too much for Cop16 to resolve.

    The risk is that, as governments navigate these challenges, the private sector could accelerate action without scrutiny. I worry that the lack of policy coordination could deter investors and slow the pace of action that local communities and regional governments want to make. Rather than waiting for global consensus, groups can catalyse change while holding each other accountable to make swift progress to save nature.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Harriet Bulkeley receives funding from the European Commission and currently serves as an advisor to the UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

    – ref. Cop16: the world’s largest meeting to save nature has ended with no clear path ahead – https://theconversation.com/cop16-the-worlds-largest-meeting-to-save-nature-has-ended-with-no-clear-path-ahead-242160

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Lebanon peace deal: Israel-Hezbollah agreement needs to be guaranteed by the Lebanese armed forces

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Vanessa Newby, Assistant Professor, Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University

    After a month of heavy bombardment, and despite continuing its military campaign and clearing border villages in south Lebanon, Israel is reportedly indirectly negotiating a peace deal with Hezbollah leaders. The terms of a ceasefire require the full implementation of UN resolution 1701, with a presence of around 10,000 Lebanese armed forces (LAF) soldiers stationed along the “blue line” which divides Israel from Lebanon and the Golan Heights. But making 1701 work has always proved a challenge.

    There can be no doubt that since its inception in 2006, resolution 1701 has never been fully implemented in south Lebanon. Adopted unanimously in 2006, the purpose of the resolution was to end hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, with the UN security council calling for a permanent ceasefire.

    A key objective of 1701 is to ensure the area south of the Litani River in south Lebanon is free from any weapons other than those of the Lebanese state and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil)

    It is on this issue that Unifil has received the most opprobrium. International observers and politicians have criticised Unifil’s inability to locate and remove Hezbollah’s weapons. The IDF blames Unifil for failing to prevent the rearmament of Hezbollah and for allegedly not doing enough to prevent Hezbollah attacks on Israel.

    Conversely, in Lebanon, Hezbollah supporters rebuke Unifil for failing to prevent six IDF invasions over half a century. This, they argue, makes Hezbollah’s presence on the blue line essential.

    But the question of why resolution 1701 was not fully implemented is not a simple one. Multiple actors are involved, of which one key player is the LAF. A large part of fulfilling resolution 1701 means ensuring that LAF are deployed in southern Lebanon as the only legitimate provider of force representing the Lebanese government. Understanding their role and the constraints they face is an important part of the puzzle.

    Prior to the outbreak of the Lebanese civil war in 1975, south Lebanon was sparsely populated and regarded as strategically unimportant. When civil war broke out, political and operational factors meant the LAF could not deploy to the south.

    These factors included the defection of LAF officers to sectarian militia and a lack of sufficient resources. The influence of neighbouring Syria and the heavy presence of militia groups, plus the occupation of the “zone of security” in south Lebanon by the IDF and its proxy militia the South Lebanon Army complicated matters.

    After the 2006 war, LAF became an important official party to resolution 1701 and Unifil worked closely with them to fulfil three main objectives: first, to assist with their re-introduction into the area of operations; second, to improve their operational capabilities; and third, to seek international funding for the LAF to improve their technical capabilities.

    Hunting for Hezbollah

    Unifil is mandated to assist LAF in taking steps towards the establishment of an area free from armed personnel between the blue line and the Litani River.

    Map of sourthern Lebanon showing the blue line which covers the Lebanese-Israeli border and extends to cover the Lebanese-Golan Heights border.
    Striving2767, CC BY-NC-SA

    Until recently LAF and Unifil often conducted joint patrols to search for unexploded ordinance and unauthorised weapons. If Unifil independently discovered an illegal weapons cache, it would notify the LAF, which handled the weapons’ recovery.

    This approach helped Unifil sidestep confrontations with the local population, on whose support they depend to patrol safely and execute the mandate. But while this policy was supportive of the goals of 1701, ultimately it proved ineffective.

    There were a number of reasons for this. First, the LAF faces legal restrictions on entering private property. If it suspects illegal weapons are stored on private land, the LAF needs a court order to enter the property. This takes time, which gives the owner of the property the opportunity to remove the weapons. To fully implement 1701, this legal barrier would need to be removed.

    The LAF also has to walk a political tightrope between different political factions in Beirut, and is also sensitive to the need for local support in the south. While LAF is undoubtedly popular in Lebanon, many in the south are Shia Muslims with strong loyalties to Hezbollah and the Amal movement (a Shia militia which now operates as a political party in Lebanon). These groups offer both a degree of security and material help in the form of social services.

    While conducting field research in southern Lebanon from 2012 to 2018, I discovered that civilians in the region understand that it is difficult for LAF to hunt aggressively for weapons. This is because they need to retain a working relationship with Hezbollah which – with its allies – constitutes the political majority in Beirut. Ridding south Lebanon of Hezbollah weapons will require political cover from Beirut.

    Another problem the LAF has faced is getting hold of modern weaponry due to Israeli opposition, despite the LAF enjoying strong international support. Israel’s “qualitative military edge” strategy, supported by the US, means that it campaigns internationally against any of its border states obtaining weapons deemed to pose a threat to its security. This has on occasion prevented LAF from accepting essential defensive equipment, such as armoured vehicles and air defence systems, from its European friends.

    Preventing LAF from getting defensive equipment contradicts the EU and US stated goal of strengthening LAF. It also supports Hezbollah’s claim that it can only hand over national security to LAF when it is properly equipped to defend Lebanon. A civilian I interviewed in south Lebanon in 2013 summed up the paradox: “We would prefer that the international community made a decision to allow the military to be armed properly, and then we don’t need the resistance.”

    Ultimately the political and legal tightrope the LAF walks in Lebanon is deeply implicated in why resolution 1701 has never been fully implemented. Neither a national army nor a peacekeeping force are capable of enforcing a Hezbollah withdrawal in the absence of political and legal agreement in Beirut, or local support in south Lebanon.

    Any calls for the full implementation of 1701 will require the unqualified support of all parties to 1701. This is not just those involved in the conflict – Israel, Hezbollah and the Lebanese government – but also various international stakeholders including the US, EU and all countries with UN peacekeepers in Lebanon. It will be a delicate balance.

    Vanessa Newby does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Lebanon peace deal: Israel-Hezbollah agreement needs to be guaranteed by the Lebanese armed forces – https://theconversation.com/lebanon-peace-deal-israel-hezbollah-agreement-needs-to-be-guaranteed-by-the-lebanese-armed-forces-241930

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Paddington gets a British passport – but the Home Office treats real refugees very differently

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Katie Tonkiss, Senior Lecturer in Sociology and Policy, Aston University

    Chris Dorney/Shutterstock

    To say that Paddington Bear is a beloved British icon would be something of an understatement. The Peruvian bear, who arrived at Paddington station with nothing but his suitcase, a love of marmalade sandwiches and a luggage tag reading “please look after this bear”, was created by Michael Bond in the 1958 classic A Bear Called Paddington.

    Bond went on to write 29 Paddington books, and the bear has appeared in TV adaptations for nearly 50 years. The 2014 Paddington film was launched to much acclaim, leading to a sequel in 2017. Paddington even appeared with Queen Elizabeth II during the Platinum Jubilee celebrations in 2022, cementing his status as a quintessential symbol of British identity.

    In the third film, premiering November 8, Paddington will visit Peru in search of his dear Aunt Lucy. As part of the marketing campaign for the new film, the UK Home Office has granted Paddington his own British passport.

    What can Paddington Bear’s citizenship journey teach our leaders?

    Join The Conversation UK and migration experts in London on November 16 for a screening of Paddington Peru and a discussion on migration, citizenship and belonging.

    Click here for more information and tickets.

    “We wrote to the Home Office asking if we could get a replica, and they actually issued Paddington with an official passport,” one of the film’s producers said. “You wouldn’t think the Home Office would have a sense of humour, but under official observations, they’ve listed him as Bear.”

    Arriving from Peru in need of help, Paddington is often afforded the status of refugee-in-chief – even immortalised in Banksy artwork. Bond was inspired by Jewish refugees arriving in the UK from Europe during the second world war when he created the character.

    In being granted British citizenship, Paddington has fared far better than most people arriving in the UK in need of help. Under the current system, asylum seekers must navigate a complex process, often over many years, in which they are disbelieved, excluded and stigmatised. A third of all people seeking asylum in the UK are refused at their initial application.

    Should they manage to be granted refugee status, after five years they may apply for indefinite leave to remain. Should that be granted, after another year they may apply for citizenship status. For this to be granted, the applicant must be able to prove language skills, have passed the “life in the UK” test and be shown to be of “good character”.

    Giving Paddington a passport is an unsettling display of double standards from the same Home Office that has overseen the hostile environment and other harsh asylum policies. The Home Office has made conditions in the UK as difficult as possible for people settling from overseas and has subjected people arriving in the UK to seek asylum – much like Paddington – to delays, detention, destitution and deportation.

    In its treatment of the Windrush generation, the Home Office has deported people who have legally lived and worked all their lives in the UK – and has failed to compensate victims. For the Home Office then to issue a passport to a fictional character as a publicity stunt is, to put it mildly, problematic.



    Read more:
    Through its immigration policies, the UK government decides whose families are ‘legitimate’

    The ‘deserving’ migrant

    At the same time, the whole episode is a very clear reflection of how access to British citizenship really works. Access to British citizenship for people arriving in need of safety depends on proving yourself to be deserving of refugee status, and then of citizenship status.

    Research has shown that people tend to see child refugees (like those who inspired Bond to create Paddington) as the most deserving of help. Paddington has also shown himself to integrate into the British way of life, sipping tea and eating marmalade sandwiches in a cosy duffel coat and wellies.

    This supposedly deserving refugee contrasts against those seen as undeserving – most often men of colour who are seen as “invading” in “swarms”. Until recently, anyone who arrived in the UK on a boat (as Paddington did) to claim asylum would be at risk of being sent to Rwanda to have their claims processed. Keir Starmer has indicated his openness to similar offshoring deals.

    The stunt also highlights how valuable a commodity British citizenship has become. While people from the Windrush generation and their descendants worked and paid taxes in the UK all their lives, only to be told that they weren’t really British, citizenship is far easier to acquire for those on investor visas, which require a £2 million investment in the UK.

    The citizenship acquisition process itself is also expensive, costing upwards of £5,000 per application. While most refugees will struggle to get British citizenship, for Paddington it came relatively easily as an investment in the UK film industry.

    I won’t begrudge Paddington his passport. He’s waited long enough for the security and stability of a status denied to so many non-citizens around the world. However, this stunt has highlighted both the double standards of a hostile Home Office attempting to create the illusion of benevolence, and the realities of a citizenship acquisition process which continually fails the vulnerable.

    Katie Tonkiss receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.

    – ref. Paddington gets a British passport – but the Home Office treats real refugees very differently – https://theconversation.com/paddington-gets-a-british-passport-but-the-home-office-treats-real-refugees-very-differently-241988

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The true class divide in British politics is not which party people choose, but whether they vote at all

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Oliver Heath, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway University of London

    Traditionally, Britain was regarded as the class society. And class was pre-eminent among the factors used to explain political party allegiance. In broad terms, working-class voters chose Labour, the party set up to represent them. Middle-class voters chose the Conservatives, the party that represented homeowners and business owners.

    Since the 1960s, there has been a decline in class-based voting. Our social background is no longer such a good predictor of our party.

    That may be because there are more parties to choose from, or because the big two have changed their offering to appeal to a wider audience, but it’s also about class-based abstention. In the 1960s, most working-class people voted in elections, and when they did so they tended to vote for Labour. Now, many more working-class people do not vote at all. And when they do, they are less drawn to any party in particular.

    Class differences with respect to turnout have thus become greater than class differences with respect to vote choice. Or put another way, class is now more important as a participatory divide than it is as a partisan divide.

    According to the long-running British Election Study (BES), the difference in reported turnout between people with working-class occupations and middle-class occupations was less than 5 percentage points in 1964. In 2024, it was 16 percentage points.

    Put into context, the difference in reported turnout between the under-30s and the over-60s in 2024 was 20 percentage points. This age gap is the subject of great concern and much discussion. We worry a lot about why young people are not voting. Numerous initiatives have been launched to try and get young people more involved in politics. Yet the class gap, of a very similar magnitude, has received almost no attention at all.

    BES data over the years shows us that the working class has generally been somewhat less likely to vote than the middle class. But from 1964 to 2001, the difference in turnout rates was fairly modest. Turnout bumped along, up and down, but the relative difference did not change much, and turnout among both groups tended to increase and decrease in tandem.

    However, since 2001, the turnout patterns between the two classes have sharply diverged. In the election of 2001, overall turnout was the lowest since 2018 at just 59.4%. The middle-class vote bounced back after that nadir but the working-class vote did not, remaining instead at historically low levels. Before 2001, the average class gap in turnout was 6 percentage points. So today’s 16 percentage-point gap is nearly three times greater than the pre-2001 level.

    The widening class gap in turnout, 1964-2024:

    The chart below shows how the size of this class gap on turnout compares with the size of the class gap on support for Labour, the party which was originally founded to represent working-class interests.

    In 1964, among people with working-class occupations, 11% did not vote, 55% voted for Labour, and the remaining 34% voted for the Conservatives or another party. Among people with middle-class occupations, 7% did not vote, just 18% voted for Labour, and the remaining 75% voted for the Conservatives or another party. The class gap on turnout was therefore just 5 percentage points, compared with the class gap on Labour support of 37 percentage points.

    The class gap in turnout has overtaken the class gap in support for Labour, 1964-2024:

    Over time, Labour has become a less distinctively working-class party. This has particularly been the case since the New Labour period, when Tony Blair famously rebranded the party to project a more middle-class image.

    The result has been that the size of the class gap on Labour support has declined, while the size of the class gap on turnout has increased – to the point in the early 2000s where class differences on turnout overtook class differences on support for Labour.

    These findings have important implications. There is a widespread belief that class has become less important in British politics, and so does not merit as much attention as it once did. This belief is false.

    While it is certainly true that class divisions are not as evident as they once were in terms of structuring vote choice, this is because class has been pushed outside the political system. Whereas previously the middle class and working class were divided on who to vote for, now they are divided on whether to bother voting at all.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The true class divide in British politics is not which party people choose, but whether they vote at all – https://theconversation.com/the-true-class-divide-in-british-politics-is-not-which-party-people-choose-but-whether-they-vote-at-all-240645

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nigel Farage, AI and the revolt of the squeezed middle: class politics is about to get messier than ever

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Laura Hood, Host, Know Your Place podcast, The Conversation

    The neglect of working-class voters in the past few decades has had profound consequences for British political life. Disillusioned with the two main parties, many have turned to Nigel Farage’s Reform and others are simply not voting at all.

    With the next election likely to be a tight race in many key constituencies, something must be done to win these voters back.

    But as we find out in the fifth and final part of Know Your Place: what happened to class in British politics, a podcast series from The Conversation Documentaries, the relationship between class and voting could be about to become even more complicated. So it’s difficult for any party to know how to put an electoral coalition together.

    Paula Surridge, professor of political sociology at the University of Bristol, has identified what she calls cross-pressured voters as a key demographic in post-Brexit British politics. These are people who are probably economically left wing – they want better public services and wealth redistribution – but who are more right wing on social issues such as immigration and crime and punishment.

    In a system like we have in Britain, where we’ve got first past the post and two big parties to choose from, that creates lots of swing voters who, when economics is their priority as we saw in 2024, they might lean more to Labour. When immigration or Brexit or something along that dimension is their priority, they might lean towards the Conservatives or a party like Reform.

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    Appealing to such voters is therefore a real challenge. And while the perception is that they’ve flocked to Farage, Surridge says that’s not the full picture at all.

    Many working-class voters were prioritising economic issues, public services. They don’t, on the whole, vote Reform for that reason. The voters for whom immigration was absolutely their most important issue, which are a much smaller group, they were very likely to vote Reform.

    Reform came second in 98 constituencies – 89 of which ended up going to Labour. A lot of those constituencies were won on wafer-thin majorities, and they should be considered highly at risk in the next election. So working out how to appeal to cross-pressured voters is key.

    The bigger challenge, however, is winning voters back from the sofa. The truth is that there is a more salient class divide in Britain: who actually votes at all.

    According to Oliver Heath, professor of politics at Royal Holloway, University of London, who has tracked the history of turnout and class over the past 20 years, working-class voters are staying away from the ballot box. The first real signs of this were in 2001, when Tony Blair won a second term with a turnout of 59%, one of the lowest in British history.

    2001 was when turnout fell off a cliff … and it dropped across all segments of society. But since then, turnout has rebounded quite a large extent amongst middle-class voters, but stayed very low amongst working class voters.



    Read more:
    The true class divide in British politics is not which party people choose, but whether they vote at all

    For decades working-class communities were assumed to vote Labour, and so Labour gave them relatively little political attention. Now, the tables have turned and its Labour constituencies in the Red Wall that are some of the most competitive in the country. But it won’t be easy for Labour to bring these voters back on side, says Heath.

    Even after the great implosion of the Conservatives, the votes haven’t gone back to Labour. So, it’s hard to rebuild those connections once they’ve come undone.

    Meanwhile, Rosie Campbell, professor of politics at King’s College London, warns that we can’t presume to know what middle-class voters will do either.

    The backlash of the middle class in some areas against the Conservatives in what you would expect to be traditional Conservative heartlands is really interesting. And I think what it’s showing is that social change and demographic change are shifting our political landscape.

    Pay attention to the middle-class vote in the next election.
    Shutterstock/William Barton

    All this means that British politics is more fractured than ever, according to John Curtice, senior research fellow at the National Centre for Social Research.

    It looks as though our politics isn’t two-party politics now, and it’s never looked less like two-party politics at any stage since 1945 … therefore there are many potential options as to how things might play out.

    One of those options is a radical disruption to the class system itself, potentially triggered by artificial intelligence. A question that Curtice is asking himself:

    Will class inequality still be articulated through the difference between people in working-class jobs and those in middle-class jobs, or those people who are very much at the creative end of middle-class jobs, who AI are probably not going to be able to replace, and those who are not quite in the same position?

    In other words, AI has the potential to split the middle class and redefine the entire occupational structure of the UK. What will that do to our political preferences? It’s all to play for.

    For more analysis on what else could shape the way class and politics interact in the future, listen to the full episode of Know Your Place: what happened to class in British politics on The Conversation Documentaries.

    A transcript is available on Apple Podcasts.

    Know Your Place: what happened to class in British politics is produced and mixed by Anouk Millet for The Conversation. It’s supported by the National Centre for Social Research.

    Newsclips in the episode from Guardian News, BBC News, Nigel Farage, David Boothroyd, CBS News and theipaper.

    Listen to The Conversation Documentaries via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here.

    Rosie Campbell receives funding from the ESRC, the UKRI andThe Leverhulme Trust. John Curtice receives funding from UKRI-ESRC. Vladimir Bortun, Geoffrey Evans, Paula Surridge and Oliver Heath do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Nigel Farage, AI and the revolt of the squeezed middle: class politics is about to get messier than ever – https://theconversation.com/nigel-farage-ai-and-the-revolt-of-the-squeezed-middle-class-politics-is-about-to-get-messier-than-ever-242628

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: I research sexual perversions and paraphilias – here’s what we’ve learned about them

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Griffiths, Director of the International Gaming Research Unit and Professor of Behavioural Addiction, Nottingham Trent University

    Hollywood actor Armie Hammer was accused of sending messages detailing cannibalistic fantasies in 2021. DFree/Shutterstock

    After allegedly sending messages detailing cannibalistic fetishes, Hollywood actor Armie Hammer hopes to relaunch his career with a new podcast and movie.

    Following the 2021 social media cannibal scandal, Hammer was also accused of rape and abuse by various women, but consistently denied any criminal behaviour and was not charged.

    Now, it seems, Hammer is laughing off the cannibalism allegations. Speaking to his first podcast guest, Tom Arnold, Hammer says, “I’m not gonna lie. I’m just like, Hey, I’m a cannibal!”

    But being sexually aroused by the fantasy – or reality – of cannibalism is real. I should know, as it’s one of the subjects I discuss in my latest book Sexual Perversions and Paraphilias: An A-Z

    Paraphilias are uncommon types of sexual expression often described as sexual deviations, sexual perversions or disorders of sexual preference.

    They are typically accompanied by intense sexual arousal to unconventional or non-sexual stimuli such as enemas (klismaphilia), statues (agalmatophilia), teeth (odontophilia) and vomit (emetophilia).

    To many people paraphilias may seem bizarre or socially unacceptable, representing the extreme end of the sexual continuum – and in some cases, such as zoophilia (having sex with animals) and necrophilia (having sex with dead people), may be illegal.

    Paraphilias may be laughed off, dismissed or leave some people disgusted, but there’s a pressing need for more research into uncommon sexual behaviour given how little we know.

    Sexual fantasies and behaviour are a fundamental part of the human experience. What is considered immoral or even illegal changes according to the social and temporal context. But whatever sexual desires are considered illicit or depraved in a particular time and place are also stigmatised.

    Researching paraphilias, even the most distasteful or criminal, is essential to help safeguard vulnerable groups. Research can also help minimise the discrimination faced by those with uncommon sexual interests, helping ensure their access to sexual health care and psychological support, which can be lacking.

    Vorarephilia

    Vorarephilia – or “vore” – refers to being sexually aroused by the idea of being eaten, eating another person or observing this process for sexual gratification.

    Most of the fantasies of vorarephiliacs involve being the ones eaten. Devouring someone could be viewed as the ultimate act of dominance by a predator and the ultimate act of submission by the prey.

    The most infamous vorarephiliac is arguably Armin Meiwes from Germany.

    Meiwes had allegedly been fantasising about cannibalism since his childhood and frequented cannibal fetish websites. He posted around 60 online adverts asking if anyone would like to be eaten by him.

    In March 2002, Bernd Jürgen Brandes responded to Meiwes. They met up only once. Meiwes bit off Brandes’ penis, which the two of them cooked and ate.

    Brandes was videotaped being stabbed to death by Meiwes in his bath. The body was then stored for Meiwes to eat.

    Meiwes was eventually convicted of murder and imprisoned for life. However, it’s worth nothing that although some paraphilias are illegal, most cause no psychological or behavioural problems when they are engaged by consenting adults.

    Dacryphilia

    Dacryphilia is getting sexual arousal from seeing someone cry.

    I have published a number of studies on dacryphilia. One involved interviews with eight dacryphiles: six women and two men, from the US, UK, Romania and Belgium.

    It showed there were sub-types of dacryphilia, even among such a small group. Based on the interviews, I identified three types of dacryphile.

    Compassionate dacryphiles are sexually aroused by the compassion of comforting a crier.

    Dominant or submissive dacryphiles are sexually aroused by either causing tears in a consenting submissive partner or by being made to cry by a consenting dominant partner.

    “Curled lip” dacryphiles are sexually aroused by the curling of a protruded bottom lip during crying.

    Eproctophilia

    Eproctophilia involves being sexually aroused by flatulence.

    In 2013, I published the first case study of an eproctophile. The case concerned a 22-year-old single man, Brad*, an American from Illinois.

    Brad recalled that in middle school he had a crush on a girl who had farted in the class. Brad said:

    This blew my mind [I] knew by simple biology that girls farted, but hearing that the girl I had been fawning over was capable of such a thing sparked a strange interest in me.

    Brad first engaged in an eproctophilic act with a male friend in his mid-teens. Up to that point he had considered himself heterosexual. However, this changed when he heard his male friend fart.

    Brad said it was “appealing in sound” and that he began fixating on it. He set up a bet with the wager being the right to fart in the loser’s face for a week. He continued to lose such bets once every few weeks for about two years.

    Apotemnophilia

    Apotemnophilia refers to being sexually aroused by the fantasy or reality of being an amputee.

    Some apotemnophiles may pretend to be amputees but, for a minority, the behaviour involves obsessive scheming to convince a surgeon to perform a medically unnecessary amputation.

    To most people, this might seem like a type of masochism, but case studies suggest that there is no erotisation of pain – only of the healed amputated stump.

    Salirophilia

    Salirophilia is sexual arousal from soiling or dishevelling someone attractive, which can include tearing or damaging the desired person’s clothing, covering them in mud or filth or messing up their hair or make-up.

    My 2019 case study involved Jeff*, a 58-year-old Australian heterosexual. Jeff recounted that when he was young he wanted to masturbate in strange places such as lying under a cabinet in a dirty garage.

    Jeff said that he engaged in solitary salirophilic practices regularly but very infrequently with female partners because it was difficult to find like-minded women.

    He was also a fan of the television show Fear Factor in which contestants perform revolting tasks for prize money, such as eating rotting food or being submerged in foul fluids. These were a source of sexual arousal for Jeff. He told me: “I just find the defilement of an attractive woman’s body erotic.”

    *The names of case study participants in this article have been changed.

    Dr. Mark Griffiths has received research funding from a wide range of organizations including the Economic and Social Research Council, the British Academy and the Responsibility in Gambling Trust. He has also carried out consultancy for numerous gambling companies in the area of player protection, social responsibility and responsible gaming.. Views expressed here are his own and not those of these funding bodies.

    – ref. I research sexual perversions and paraphilias – here’s what we’ve learned about them – https://theconversation.com/i-research-sexual-perversions-and-paraphilias-heres-what-weve-learned-about-them-238446

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –